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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-14-18 | Miami-OH v. Northern Illinois -6 | Top | 13-7 | Loss | -111 | 59 h 32 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on Northern Illinois Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the history between these two teams is particularly significant. Key Trends: - Note that Northern Illinois is 6-3 ATS in its last nine against teams with losing records. - The home team is 6-3 ATS in the last nine in this series. - The Huskies are already 3-1 ATS this season after two or more SU wins. The verdict: Take NIU. |
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11-12-18 | Giants v. 49ers -3 | Top | 27-23 | Loss | -115 | 36 h 26 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the 49ers. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the history between these two teams is particularly significant. Key Trends: - New York has lost 12 of its last 13 dating back to last year. - San Francisco is 7-2 ATS in its last nine coming off a victory and holding its opponent to three points or less in doing so (won 34-3 over the Raiders last weekend) - The Giants are just 1-3 ATS in their last four following their bye and a three games or more unbeaten streak. The verdict: A week off isn’t going to help Eli Manning and company. Home field is the difference, take San Fran. |
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11-11-18 | Seahawks v. Rams -9.5 | 31-36 | Loss | -109 | 54 h 20 m | Show | |
Ricky's 8* play on the Rams: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the history between these two teams is particularly significant. Key Trends: - The Seahawks are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games in November. - The Seahawks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Los Angeles. - The Home team is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 meetings. Verdict: Take LAR |
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11-11-18 | Dolphins +10 v. Packers | Top | 12-31 | Loss | -115 | 132 h 52 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the Dolphins: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the history between these two teams is particularly significant. Key Trends: - The Dolphins are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on grass. - The Packers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall. - The Packers are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games in November. Verdict: Take Miami |
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11-11-18 | Falcons v. Browns +7 | 16-28 | Win | 100 | 51 h 39 m | Show | |
Ricky's 8* play on the Browns: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the history between these two teams is particularly significant. Key Trends: - The Falcons are 1-5 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. - The Falcons are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games. - The Falcons are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win. Verdict: Take Cleveland |
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11-10-18 | Clemson v. Boston College +20 | 27-7 | Push | 0 | 33 h 28 m | Show | |
Ricky's 8* play on the Eagles: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the history between these two teams is particularly significant. Key Trends: - The Tigers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games on fieldturf. - The Eagles are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 conference games. - The Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings. Verdict: Take Boston College |
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11-10-18 | Oregon +3.5 v. Utah | Top | 25-32 | Loss | -103 | 92 h 24 m | Show |
Ricky's 8* play on the Ducks: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the history between these two teams is particularly significant. Key Trends: - The Ducks are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games in November. - The Utes are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games versus teams with a winning road record. - The Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings. Verdict: Take Oregon |
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11-10-18 | Mississippi State +24.5 v. Alabama | 0-24 | Win | 100 | 30 h 38 m | Show | |
Ricky's 8* play on the Bulldogs: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the history between these two teams is particularly significant. Key Trends: - The Bulldogs are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall. - The Crimson Tide are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games in November. - The Bulldogs lost 31-24 to Alabama last season. Verdict: Take Mississippi State |
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11-08-18 | Panthers +3.5 v. Steelers | 21-52 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 52 m | Show | |
Ricky's 8* play on the Panthers: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the history between these two teams is particularly significant. Key Trends: - The Panthers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in November. - The Steelers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up win. - The Steelers are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home games. Verdict: Take Carolina |
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11-07-18 | Toledo +3.5 v. Northern Illinois | 15-38 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 10 m | Show | |
8* |
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11-07-18 | Ohio v. Miami-OH +5 | 28-30 | Win | 100 | 7 h 10 m | Show | |
8* |
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11-05-18 | Titans +5.5 v. Cowboys | 28-14 | Win | 100 | 8 h 48 m | Show | |
Ricky's 8* the Titans: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the history between these two teams is particularly significant. Key Trends: - The Titans are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 Monday games. - The Cowboys are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 Monday games. - The Titans are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a straight up loss. Verdict: Take Tennessee |
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11-04-18 | Packers +6 v. Patriots | 17-31 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 34 m | Show | |
Ricky's 10* the Packers: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the history between these two teams is particularly significant. Key Trends: - The Patriots Rob Gronkowski and Sony Michel are questionable (game time decision). - The Road team is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings. - The Packers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings. Verdict: Take Green Bay |
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11-04-18 | Steelers +3 v. Ravens | 23-16 | Win | 100 | 52 h 12 m | Show | |
Ricky's 8* the Steelers: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the history between these two teams is particularly significant. Key Trends: - The Underdog is 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings. - The Road team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings. - The Steelers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Verdict: Take Pittsburgh |
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11-04-18 | Bucs +6.5 v. Panthers | 28-42 | Loss | -115 | 2 h 5 m | Show | |
Ricky's 8* play on the Bucs: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the history between these two teams is particularly significant. Key Trends: - The Buccaneers are 5-1 ATS versus a team with a winning record. - The Road team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings. - The Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings. Verdict: Take Tampa |
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11-04-18 | Lions +5.5 v. Vikings | 9-24 | Loss | -115 | 2 h 32 m | Show | |
Ricky's 8* play on the Lions: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the history between these two teams is particularly significant. Key Trends: - The Lions are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall. - The Lions are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games in November. - The Underdog is 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 meetings. Verdict: Take Detroit |
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11-03-18 | Alabama v. LSU +14.5 | Top | 29-0 | Loss | -106 | 73 h 30 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the Tigers: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the history between these two teams is particularly significant. Home field has been a big deal for LSU, and the Tigers have covered the spread in seven of their last 10 in Baton Rouge. Key Trends: - The Tigers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in November. - The Tigers are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 conference games. - The Crimson Tide are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in November. Verdict: Take LSU |
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11-03-18 | Notre Dame v. Northwestern +10 | 31-21 | Push | 0 | 33 h 30 m | Show | |
Ricky's 8* play on the Wildcats: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the history between these two teams is particularly significant. Key Trends: - The Wildcats are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS win. - The Wildcats are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in November. - The Fighting Irish are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games in November. Verdict: Take Northwestern |
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11-03-18 | Penn State +10.5 v. Michigan | Top | 7-42 | Loss | -106 | 68 h 1 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the Nittany Lions: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the history between these two teams is particularly significant. Key Trends: - The Nittany Lions are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games. - The Wolverines are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a bye week. - The Nittany Lions are 16-6-1 ATS in their last 23 conference games. Verdict: Take Penn State |
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11-03-18 | Nebraska +19 v. Ohio State | 31-36 | Win | 100 | 26 h 16 m | Show | |
Ricky's 8* the Huskers: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the history between these two teams is particularly significant. Key Trends: - The Cornhuskers are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 road games. - The Buckeyes are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 conference games. - The Buckeyes are 2-6 ATS versus a team with a losing record. Verdict: Take Nebraska |
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11-01-18 | Raiders +3 v. 49ers | 3-34 | Loss | -140 | 7 h 49 m | Show | |
Ricky's 8* play on the Raiders: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the history between these two teams is particularly significant. Key Trends: - The Raiders are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a double-digit loss at home. - The 49ers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall. - The 49ers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games. Verdict: Take Oakland |
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10-30-18 | Miami-OH +7 v. Buffalo | 42-51 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 25 m | Show | |
Ricky's 8* play on the Redhawks: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the history between these two teams is particularly significant. Key Trends: - The Redhawks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 conference games. - The Redhawks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall. - The Redhawks are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings. Verdict: Take Miami-Oh |
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10-28-18 | Eagles v. Jaguars +3.5 | 24-18 | Loss | -115 | 129 h 18 m | Show | |
8* |
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10-27-18 | Texas v. Oklahoma State +3.5 | 35-38 | Win | 100 | 8 h 17 m | Show | |
Ricky's 8* play on the Cowboys: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the history between these two teams is particularly significant. Key Trends: - The Cowboys are 29-13-1 ATS in their last 43 games in October. - The Cowboys are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games following a ATS loss. - The Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a bye week. Verdict: Take Oklahoma State |
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10-27-18 | Washington -11.5 v. California | 10-12 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 24 m | Show | |
Ricky's 8* play on the Huskies: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the history between these two teams is particularly significant. Key Trends: - The Golden Bears are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 home games. - The Golden Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall. - The Huskies are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings in California. Verdict: Take Washington |
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10-26-18 | Utah v. UCLA +10.5 | 41-10 | Loss | -107 | 21 h 16 m | Show | |
Ricky's 8* play on the Bruins: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the UCLA defense is particularly significant. Key Trends: - The Bruins Wilton Speight threw for 204 yards and 2 TDs on 17-of-27 passing last week. - The Bruins defense has four INTs in their last two games. - The Bruins are 5-2 ATS versus a team with a winning record. Verdict: Take UCLA |
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10-25-18 | Baylor +14 v. West Virginia | 14-58 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 28 m | Show | |
Ricky's 8* play on the Bears: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the West Virginia defense is particularly significant. Key Trends: - The Mountaineers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in October. - The Bears are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings. - The Bears are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 road games. Verdict: Take Baylor |
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10-21-18 | Bengals v. Chiefs -5.5 | 10-45 | Win | 100 | 7 h 35 m | Show | |
Ricky's 8* play on the Chiefs: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the offense of the home team is particularly significant. Key Trends: - The Chiefs are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall. - The Chiefs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games. - The Chiefs have allowed more than 10 points fewer at home than they have on the road. Verdict: Take KC |
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10-21-18 | Vikings v. Jets +3.5 | 37-17 | Loss | -112 | 96 h 39 m | Show | |
Ricky's 8* play on the Jets: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the defense of the home team is particularly significant. Key Trends: - The Jets are 8-0-1 ATS in their last 9 games in October. - The Jets are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games. - The Vikings are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings. Verdict: Take NYJ |
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10-21-18 | Panthers +5 v. Eagles | 21-17 | Win | 100 | 96 h 37 m | Show | |
Ricky's 8* play on the Panthers: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the inflated line is particularly significant. Key Trends: - The Panthers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss. - The Eagles are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games on grass. - The Eagles are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Verdict: Take Carolina |
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10-20-18 | Arizona v. UCLA -7 | 30-31 | Loss | -112 | 81 h 9 m | Show | |
Ricky's 8* play on the Bruins: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the injury to Khalil Tate is particularly significant. - The Wildcats are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 road games. - The Wildcats are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings. - The Home team is 11-4 ATS in their last 15 meetings. Verdict: Take UCLA |
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10-20-18 | Oregon v. Washington State +2 | Top | 20-34 | Win | 100 | 130 h 57 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* GOY play on the Cougars: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the home field advantage particularly significant. Additionally, this appears to be a classic let down spot for the Ducks coming off a lucky win over Washington due to a missed FG by the Huskies. The Cougars also come off a bye week, giving them more time to rest and draw up a game plan. Key Trends: - The Cougars are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games overall. - The Cougars are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 home games. - The Cougars are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 conference games. Verdict: Take Wazzu |
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10-20-18 | Minnesota +3.5 v. Nebraska | 28-53 | Loss | -105 | 74 h 4 m | Show | |
Ricky's 8* play on the Gophers: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the home team's struggles defensively are particularly significant. - The Golden Gophers are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games following a straight up loss. - The Cornhuskers are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games. - The Cornhuskers are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall. Verdict: Take Minnesota |
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10-20-18 | Michigan -7 v. Michigan State | Top | 21-7 | Win | 100 | 23 h 25 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the Wolverines: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the home team's struggles defensively are particularly significant. - The Wolverines are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games - The Spartans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games. - The Spartans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win. Verdict: Take Michigan |
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10-15-18 | 49ers v. Packers -9 | 30-33 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 47 m | Show | |
Ricky's 8* play on the Packers: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the home field advantage particularly significant. Key Trends: - The Packers are 19-9-1 ATS in their last 29 games in October. - The 49ers are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Green Bay. - The 49ers are 4-11-2 ATS in their last 17 meetings. Verdict: Take Green Bay |
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10-14-18 | Chiefs +3.5 v. Patriots | Top | 40-43 | Win | 100 | 137 h 57 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* GOY play on the Chiefs: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the Chiefs offense is particularly significant. KC is averaging an unbelievable 35 points per game so far. Key Trends: - The Chiefs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall. - The Chiefs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games. - The Chiefs are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games following a straight up win. Verdict: Take KC |
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10-14-18 | Jaguars v. Cowboys +3.5 | 7-40 | Win | 100 | 5 h 45 m | Show | |
Ricky's 8* play on the Cowboys: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the Jags offense is particularly significant. Key Trends: - The Cowboys are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 6. - The Cowboys are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games in October. - The Underdog is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings. Verdict: Take Dallas |
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10-14-18 | Rams -6.5 v. Broncos | 23-20 | Loss | -113 | 87 h 15 m | Show | |
Ricky's 8* play on the Rams: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the Rams offense is particularly significant. Key Trends: - The Broncos are 6-19-2 ATS in their last 27 games overall. - The Broncos are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 home games. - The Broncos are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games following a ATS loss. Verdict: Take LAR |
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10-14-18 | Bucs +3.5 v. Falcons | 29-34 | Loss | -110 | 84 h 10 m | Show | |
Ricky's 8* play on the Bucs: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the Falcons injury woes are particularly significant. Key Trends: - The Buccaneers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall. - The Falcons are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games in October. - The Falcons are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall. Verdict: Take TB |
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10-13-18 | Wisconsin +9 v. Michigan | Top | 13-38 | Loss | -110 | 69 h 7 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the Badgers: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the history between these teams is particularly significant. Key Trends: - The Badgers are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 road games. - The Wolverines are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games in October. - The Badgers are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings. Verdict: Take Wisconsin |
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10-11-18 | Texas Tech v. TCU -7 | 17-14 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 51 m | Show | |
Ricky's 5* play on TCU: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the Red Raiders injury woes are particularly significant. Key Trends: - The Horned Frogs are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 home games versus teams with a winning road record. - The Red Raiders are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games on grass. - The Horned Frogs are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games following a bye week. Verdict: Take TCU |
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10-08-18 | Redskins v. Saints -6 | 19-43 | Win | 100 | 6 h 26 m | Show | |
Ricky's 8* play on the Saints: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the home field advantage is particularly significant. Key Trends: - The Redskins are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a bye week. - The Redskins are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win. - The Saints are 23-5 ATS in their last 28 home games versus teams with a winning road record. Verdict: Take New Orleans |
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10-06-18 | Missouri v. South Carolina +1.5 | 35-37 | Win | 100 | 3 h 5 m | Show | |
Ricky's 8* play on the Gamecocks: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the home field advantage is particularly significant. Key Trends: - The Tigers are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 road games. - The Gamecocks are 8-3-3 ATS in their last 14 conference games. - The Gamecocks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up loss. Verdict: Take South Carolina |
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09-30-18 | Ravens +3 v. Steelers | 26-14 | Win | 105 | 10 h 60 m | Show | |
Ricky's 8* play on Baltimore: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the history between these teams is particularly significant. Key Trends: - The Ravens are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings. - The Underdog is 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings. - The Ravens are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Pittsburgh. Verdict: Take Baltimore |
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09-30-18 | Dolphins +7.5 v. Patriots | 7-38 | Loss | -140 | 120 h 19 m | Show | |
Ricky's 8* play on Miami: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the history between these teams is particularly significant. Key Trends: - The Dolphins are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win. - The Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall. - The Dolphins are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in September. Verdict: Take Miami. |
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09-29-18 | South Carolina v. Kentucky -1 | Top | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 103 h 51 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the Under: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the Wildcats defense is particularly significant. Key Trends: - The Gamecocks are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win. - The Gamecocks are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 meetings. - The Gamecocks are 1-3-2 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. Verdict: Take UK |
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09-23-18 | Colts v. Eagles -6 | Top | 16-20 | Loss | -107 | 123 h 20 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the Eagles: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the home field advantage is particularly significant. Key Trends: - The Eagles are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games. - The Colts are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on grass. - The Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss. Verdict: Take Philly |
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09-22-18 | Clemson v. Georgia Tech +16 | 49-21 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 45 m | Show | |
Ricky's 8* play on the Yellow Jackets: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the history between these teams is particularly significant. Key Trends: - The Tigers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall. - The Home team is 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings. - The Yellow Jackets are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 home games. Verdict: Take GT |
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09-21-18 | Washington State +4.5 v. USC | 36-39 | Win | 100 | 12 h 58 m | Show | |
Ricky's 8* play on the Cougars: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that USC's starting quarterback is particularly significant. Key Trends: - JT Daniels have thrown three INTs and just one TD pass this season. - The Trojans lost 30-27 to Washington State last year. - The Cougars rank 2nd nationally in passing yards. Verdict: Take Washington St. |
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09-20-18 | Jets +3 v. Browns | 17-21 | Loss | -100 | 59 h 42 m | Show | |
Ricky's 8* play on the New York Jets: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the history between these teams is particularly significant. Key Trends: - The Browns are 0-19 straight up in their last 19 overall. - The Browns are 1-37 straight up in their last 38 overall. - The Jets are 5-0 in their last five meetings. Verdict: Take NYJ |
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09-17-18 | Seahawks +4.5 v. Bears | 17-24 | Loss | -102 | 5 h 18 m | Show | |
Ricky's 8* play on the Seahawks: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the mismatch at quarterback is particularly significant. Key Trends: - The Seahawks are 4-1-2 ATS in their last 7 road games. - The Bears are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games in September. - The Seahawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Chicago. Verdict: Take Seattle |
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09-16-18 | Browns +10 v. Saints | 18-21 | Win | 100 | 49 h 55 m | Show | |
Ricky's 8* play on the Browns: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the status of Mark Ingram is particularly significant. Key Trends: - The Browns are 2-10 ATS versus teams with a losing record. - The Browns are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 road games. - The Saints are 9-4 ATS versus teams with a losing record. Verdict: Take Cleveland |
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09-15-18 | Duke +6.5 v. Baylor | 40-27 | Win | 100 | 28 h 58 m | Show | |
Ricky's 8* play on Duke: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the over-correction on the line movement due to the quarterback situation of Duke is particularly significant. Key Trends: - The Blue Devils are 20-5-1 ATS in their last 26 non-conference games. - The Bears are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games. - The Bears are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games. Verdict: Take Duke |
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09-15-18 | Hawaii +7 v. Army | 21-28 | Push | 0 | 25 h 30 m | Show | |
Ricky's 8* play on Hawaii: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the starting quarterback for Hawaii is particularly significant. Key Trends: - The Black Knights are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 versus the Mountain West. - The Black Knights are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS win. - The Rainbow Warriors rank 1st nationally in passing offense. Verdict: Take Hawaii |
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09-09-18 | Bears v. Packers -7 | 23-24 | Loss | -104 | 18 h 9 m | Show | |
Ricky's 8* play on the Packers: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the home field advantage in Green Bay is particularly significant. Key Trends: - The Bears are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 road games. - The Packers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games in Week 1. - The Bears are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 meetings in Green Bay. Verdict: Take Green Bay |
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09-09-18 | Redskins v. Cardinals | 24-6 | Loss | -109 | 102 h 38 m | Show | |
Ricky's 8* play on the Cardinals: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the history between these teams is particularly significant. Key Trends: - The Cardinals are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 home games. - The Redskins are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 1. - The Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings. The verdict: Take Arizona |
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09-09-18 | Bills +8.5 v. Ravens | 3-47 | Loss | -130 | 98 h 15 m | Show | |
Ricky's 8* play on the Bills: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the history between these teams is particularly significant. Key Trends: - The last four head to head meetings were all decided by less than seven points. - The Bills are 3-1 ATS in their last four versus Baltimore. - The Bills are 4-0 ATS in their last four games in September. Verdict: Take Buffalo |
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09-09-18 | Jaguars v. Giants +3 | 20-15 | Loss | -100 | 98 h 12 m | Show | |
Ricky's 8* play on the Giants: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the home field advantage in New York is particularly significant. Key Trends: - The Jaguars are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 1. - The Under is 9-3 in Giants last 12 home games. - The Jaguars are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games in September. Verdict: Take NYG |
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09-08-18 | Rice v. Hawaii -17 | Top | 29-43 | Loss | -107 | 83 h 12 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the Rainbow Warriors: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the run and shoot offense is particularly significant. Hawaii has scored 102 points in two games so far. Key Trends: - Cole McDonald is the nation's leading passer with 846 yards after two games. - Owls are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games. - Owls are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games in September. Verdict: Take Hawaii |
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09-03-18 | Virginia Tech v. Florida State -7 | Top | 24-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the Seminoles: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the home field advantage in Tallahassee is particularly significant. Key Trends: - The Hokies are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games. - The Hokies are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall. - The Seminoles are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall. Verdict: Take FSU |
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09-01-18 | Navy v. Hawaii +12.5 | 41-59 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show | |
Ricky's 8* play on the Rainbow Warriors: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the run and shoot offense is particularly significant. Key Trends: - Cole McDonald threw for 418 yards and three TDs in a win at Colorado State last week. - Cole McDonald ran for 95 yards and two TDs in a win at Colorado State last week. - Navy's starting QB has two career pass attempts. One for a TD and the other for an INT. Verdict: Take Hawaii |
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09-01-18 | Indiana -10 v. Florida International | 38-28 | Push | 0 | 10 h 43 m | Show | |
Ricky's 8* play on the Hoosiers: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the Hoosiers offense is particularly significant. Key Trends: - The Hoosiers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 versus the C-USA. - The Golden Panthers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 versus the Big Ten. - The Golden Panthers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games. Verdict: Take Indiana |
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09-01-18 | West Virginia v. Tennessee +10.5 | 40-14 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 7 m | Show | |
Ricky's 8* play on the Vols: Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the West Virginia defense is particularly significant. Key Trends: - The Volunteers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games. - The Mountaineers are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 neutral site games. - The Mountaineers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games. Verdict: Take Tennessee |
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08-30-18 | Northwestern +2 v. Purdue | Top | 31-27 | Win | 100 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the Northwestern Wildcats. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the loss of so many starters on defense for Purdue is particularly significant. Key Trends: - The Wildcats return 14 starters from last year's team that went 10-3. - The Wildcats are 7-1 ATS in their last eight overall. - The Wildcats are 4-0 straight up in their last four versus Purdue. Verdict: Take NW |
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02-04-18 | Eagles +5 v. Patriots | Top | 41-33 | Win | 100 | 266 h 38 m | Show |
Super Bowl experience goes a long way and one could easily say the Patriots may win this game solely on that aspect, but at the same time the inexperience factor may actually help the Eagles to not overthink and to stick with what got them here in the first place. Nick Foles is competent enough at the QB position to not lose this game for the Eagles and therefore I see this playing out as a competitive game across offense, defense and special teams. I don't foresee either team running away with it because the Eagles have a very stout D which should keep them in the game regardless if the offense struggles, meanwhile the Patriots offense has the ability to keep them in the game if their defense struggles. Despite the obvious experience at the head coaching position with Bill Belichick, Eagles HC Doug Pederson is a real up and comer and very sharp in his own right. I expect both coaches to devise excellent game plans and adjust as necessary after half time. The Eagles will likely double Gronk and play man-to-man at every other position. I don't think they will blitz all that much, because D Lineman Cox is essentially a double man rush by himself and as long as the press man-to-man coverage + double team on Gronk it would only leave an open receiver somewhere. The Patriots coaching staff is smart enough to know this Eagles game plan may present itself and therefore I would expect them to practice and game plan against this themselves. Overall, I see this be a very competitive game and likely a field goal win on either side. Philadelphia Eagles +5 |
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01-21-18 | Vikings -3 v. Eagles | Top | 7-38 | Loss | -100 | 73 h 27 m | Show |
This matchup is very interesting to me. First of all, let’s talk about the perception: The Eagles used their home field advantage, windy conditions and defense to beat an inefficient Falcons team 15-10 at home last week. Nick Foles didn’t get punished for bad throws and their defense did their job against laughable play-calling by Steve Sarkisian. I expected a close game and it was a solid win by the Eagles. But the perception on the Falcons was way too high which makes that win better than it was. Their run game got hyped, but it was basically just one solid drive. Overall, the Igglez had 3.0 yards per carry against a bad run defense. Nick Foles is a significant downgrade from Carson Wentz and the truth lies in the numbers over his sample size starting with the Giants game, the first game he was the starter. With Nick Foles, the Eagles offense produced 5.35 net yards per pass attempt which would rank 28th in the league, right ahead of the Colts, Browns, Packers and Ravens. With Nick Foles under center, the Eagles offense produced 3.5 yards per carry which would rank 30th in the league, right ahead of the Lions and Cardinals. With Nick Foles under center, the Eagles offense produced a 3rd down conversion rate of 30.2% which would rank 32nd in the league. Considering all that, they played vs the Giants, Raiders, Cowboys (3 drives) and the Falcons. The Vikings defense is way ahead of that bunch. The Vikings won against the Saints by a miracle. The truth is, the Vikings started off 17-0 and led the game for the first 57 minutes. One of the best offenses in the league took care of short fields and Drew Brees delivered some awesome throws against a tiring defense who lost their starting free safety. For the Saints getting a lead at any point during that game was almost a bigger miracle than the Diggs-touchdown at the end. The Vikes flat out dominated one of the best teams of 2017 for the major part of the game. The Vikings are the better team, period. The Eagles have been staying at home for a month now and I read a lot about how good their defense has been in their last four home games: 3 pts vs Bears, 10 pts vs Raiders, 6 pts vs Cowboys & 10 pts vs Falcons. The best offense of those four teams were the Falcons and they don’t really come close to the Vikings offense. Vikings OC Pat Shumur has implemented an efficient offense featuring two awesome WR's with great play-calling that just needs to be executed properly. Case Keenum does just that. This Vikings team presents a matchup the Eagles haven’t faced in weeks. The Eagles have a great offensive line, without a doubt. But it’s a different matchup than last week as the Vikings defense is a complete unit, provides great front four pressure, can stop the run and cover guys in space. The only weak spot on the Eagles line is LT Halapoulivaati Vaitai. He is going to line up against stud Everson Griffen and that’s a terrible matchup as Griffen is going to slide past Vaitai by speed and bull rushes. Vaitai just cannot handle him. That puts Nick Foles under consistent pressure from his blind side or forces Doug Pederson to double Griffen with a 6th OL, TE or RB. However he plays Griffen, it’s going to disrupt the Eagles’ gameplan a bit. Eagles are normally quite successful, but if they can’t run the ball efficiently on the Vikings front seven as I expect, Nick Foles is gonna be in a lot of long third down situations and that isn’t a good idea. The Vikings defense ranks 1st in third down conversion rate as they allow only 25% of third downs to be successful. On the flip side, the Vikings offense doesn’t have an easy matchup either. The Eagles have one of the best 4-3 defensive line in the league and they are going to win their fair share of matchups in the trenches against a Vikings offensive line that has been playing solid, but gave up a lot of pressures. Vikings will struggle to run and the Eagles will be able to move Keenum off his spot, but I give the Vikings a much better edge than the Eagles offense on the other side. Reason 1) Case Keenum’s 55.7% completion percentage under pressure has been the league’s best and his 10.7 sack conversion rate was the 2nd-best. Not only did Pat Shumur a good job with excellent scheming, Keenum also spent 2000+ plays in the virtual reality room, getting adjusted to every kind of situation / blitz / pressure and playing through all the plays again. Reports say that it helped him a lot. 2) The Vikings have maybe the best WR tandem in the league and they have a solid matchup against the Eagles CB's group. Shumur will put Keenum in pass-first situations and use the phenomenal quick route running of Diggs and the great ability to adjust at the catch point by Thielen to provide Keenum with a lot of quick options and also just 'throw it up' options. The Eagles defense will absolutely get their stops and they are also good to pick Case Keenum off, but the passing efficiency and the great opening drive scripts by Shumur might just be too overwhelming for them. The stadium is going to go nuts and the Philly crowd will bring the hammer with all the shepard masks. However, the weather conditions aren’t an advantage for the Eagles this time as weather reports call for 40°F and almost no winds. That favours the Vikings passing offense again. Nick Foles will struggle more than Case Keenum, the Vikings defense will create more stops and possibilities for turnovers. The Vikings offense should be able to score in the 20's and should stand much tougher with a lead than they did last week against the Saints. Vikings win this one and I am expecting a 24-13 kind of score. Minnesota Vikings -3 |
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01-14-18 | Saints v. Vikings -4 | Top | 24-29 | Win | 100 | 95 h 37 m | Show |
I think Vikes are the slightly better overall team with a brutal defense and a good offensive system. Saints D has obviously been regressing quite a bit with those injuries and depth. Bucs and Panthers moved the ball pretty well on them through the air, but the Vikings have a better offense than both of them currently. Vikes got decent OL play, an average rushing attack (has regressed without Cook), but a very efficient passing attack. The X-factor obviously is Case Keenum, but Pat Shumur had two weeks to prepare his team with concepts to attack the Saints. Keenum is always good for an interception and that risk is higher than for Brees, but this offense is so well-designed and Diggs / Thielen are phenomenal pass-catchers who make adjustments to the ball, that Keenums mistakes are rarely punished. The Saints could and likely will sell out way more against the run to make Keenum beat them. Panthers were able to stop the run vs Saints and NO had their worst rushing output this year, but Panthers didn’t have the secondary to compete with the Saints. Vikings can stop the run and have the secondary. They have enough speed on their front seven to contain Kamara in space and their 3rd down / red zone defense is elite. I trust Mike Zimmer that he put together a lot of disguised coverages to rob the Saints of certain strengths on certain plays to make Brees uncomfortable. Vikes have not allowed more than 19 points all season long and that 19 was against the Saints. They won’t be able to shut down that offense, but I think the ceiling for the Saints is around 20 points in this one. Mike Zimmer with the Vikes is 30-4 SU and 31-2-1 ATS when his team scores 21+ points. Minny have one of the greatest home fields in the league, it’s gonna be very loud which might cause some flags. The Vikes have the defense to slow down a good offense and they have the offense to put up points. I lean the home side here at something like a 24-20 / 27-21 or even 28-17 game. Minnesota Vikings -4 |
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01-14-18 | Jaguars +7.5 v. Steelers | Top | 45-42 | Win | 100 | 91 h 11 m | Show |
What’s going on with the Jaguars offense? Not that they ever were a unit to be afraid of with Blake Bottles at QB, but they had a very decent stretch where his weaknesses have been masked. During the last couple games, they showed complete regression, even worse than everything I could have expected. This is a top-5 offense vs the No. 1 defense so this matchup should be exciting. The Steelers will show the same gameplan on defense than the Bills: completely sell out vs the run and make Bortles beat them. From weeks 1-12, PIT D ranked 4th in yards per drive. Without Ryan Shazier who left early game 13, the Steelers rank just 29th and played offenses like BAL, CLE, HOU, (NE), CIN. That’s a huge loss and should actually do the Jags a favor. The Steelers had big issues in the first Jaguars game with poor play-calling. Overall, Haley looked lost a lot of times during the year that made the Steelers offense inefficient. The Steelers have one of the best offensive lines in the league, so the battle in the trenches is gonna be highly interesting. The Jaguars should still find ways to force a lot of three and outs, because their personnel allows them to attack opponents in various ways. This game is going to be cold (°17 F) and likely ugly because both offenses want to avoid the opposing passing defense. If the Jaguars plays on an average level, I really like the touchdown + hook spread. Hackett might try a few long bombs (also off PA) at the very beginning to test the Steelers defense and keep them honest. Jaguars might be able to keep it close with their defense and they could have a decent shot if they can exploit the Shazier-less defense. Jacksonville Jaguars +7.5 |
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01-08-18 | Alabama -3.5 v. Georgia | Top | 26-23 | Loss | -105 | 123 h 0 m | Show |
Nick Chubb and Sony Michel ripped the Oklahoma defense to pieces with big runs countering the Sooners’ incredible offense inflicted upon them for most of the game. Can the Dawgs get the run game cooking against the brick wall that is the Alabama defense? I think it will be tough sleding. Bama is now ranked an amazing 1-1-1-1 in terms of total defense, rushing defense, pass efficiency defense and scoring defense. Ridiculous. They played like their hair was on fire last week vs Clemson but face a new challenge this week in the form of two future NFL RB's. Maybe more if you include their depth. QB Jake Fromm has been truly special as a true freshman playing big time football in their biggest games. Fromm has an excellent 23-5 TD to INT ratio and can make all the throws. The good news is that Fromm does not provide much (if any) threat running the football and they do not have to account for a running QB. You can argue that Clemson needed to take some additional deep shots vs Bama, but it was clear early on that the pressure inflicted by the pass rush was going to make that very difficult. The Alabama offense is not pretty, yet somehow they are ranked #27 in the FBS in total offense and #10 running the football. The passing game is not sexy, but they have one of the best WR's in college football (Calvin Ridley – 59, 935 4 TD) and Jalen Hurts has only thrown one INT all season. ROLL TIDE is ranked #8 in passing efficiency. Hurts can also hurt you with his mobility and provides excellent balance with the 1-2 RB punch of D Harris and B Scarbrough. Those three men have bagged 27 rushing TD's so far this season. It is going to be tough sledding vs the tough GA defense (#31 FBS, #8 vs run) and do not be alarmed by the performance vs Oklahoma. The Sooners had a devastating offense and Bama provides a much more conventional attack that they can handle. It should be noted that Bama has the experience edge playing in more big games and Saban has won 5 of these Championships. They also have: 1) insane defense 2) mobility at QB 3) better spot for Alabama (GA – off 2-OT, travel). I'd give Bama a slight edge in terms of probability of creating disruptive and big plays on defense. Alabama -3.5 |
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01-07-18 | Panthers v. Saints -6.5 | Top | 26-31 | Loss | -108 | 120 h 45 m | Show |
Some people say it’s tough to beat a team three times a year. That situation occurred six times and the teams who won both previous matchups went 4-2. The Saints have dominated the Panthers twice this year for obvious reasons: they are much better in the single most important category: passing efficiency. Saints are 2nd in QBPR diff, Panthers are a horrendous 24th. The Panthers are an 8.5ish win team by Pythagorean. During their last six games they went 4-2, but in 3 of those 4 losses they were out gained in passing efficiency. They caught the Vikes in their 3rd straight road game and should have lost vs NYJ & TB. This matchup has the biggest discrepancy on my board. The Panthers will most likely get RG Trai Turner back which is huge for the offense, but they don’t have a decent passing attack. Over the second half of the season they have been leaning on the run game (Newton leads his team in rushing yards) and Christian McCaffrey in the short passing game. I don’t see how they stay within 7 in this matchup. Devin Funchess has emerged as their best WR, but he will be locked down by Marshon Lattimore. With Byrd going to IR, Newton doesn’t have options to throw to. The Saints can focus on Newton & Christian McCaffrey to force throws to Olsen or any WR. While the Panthers defense is decent, they seem not to figure out a plan to stop this Saints offense. To be competitive in this game they have to stop the Saints, but it’s a lot to ask for because that offense is so diverse: dominant run game, one of the most explosive RB in the passing game, Tedd Ginn to stretch the field and Michael Thomas who catches everything. It’s really tough to contain that offense who have scored 19+ every time this year. The Panthers need to create key turnovers and key stops to stay in this game, but I highly doubt it. Sean Payton will have his offense ready in the dome. As soon as the Panthers are behind they get forced to throw more often and that’s where Cam Newton will be limited with that kind of supporting cast he has. An efficient run game isn’t enough in the playoff. Saints should control the passing game on both sides of the ball and come up with a win of more than a touchdown here. New Orleans Saints -6.5 |
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01-07-18 | Bills v. Jaguars -8 | Top | 3-10 | Loss | -105 | 115 h 5 m | Show |
The Jaguars were as a surprising team as the Rams. The defense has been playing historically well, especially their pass defense. Their run defense started as the worst early in the season, but got a significant boost when they traded for Marcell Dareus. Their pass defense is amazing – brutal front-four pressure combined with good coverage on the back end by Ramsey & Bouye and a linebacking corp that can cover a lot of ground. This is a textbook pass defense. Their offense is build to pound Fournette with a solid offensive line that had some injury issues during the season but is back healthy now. The pass offense has shown some flashes here and there with great route combinations, Allen Hurns and those speedy undrafted WR's. The Jaguars had some heavy regression the last two weeks (on the road though!) on either side of the ball, getting shredded by Jimmy and Shanahan and throwing lots of picks because they were forced the throw. The Jags want to play with a lead to make the life for Bortles as easy as possible. Fortunately, they can make his life very easy this week because they play against the Bills. The Bills don’t belong into the playoffs, period. They are a truly a 6-10 team. They have the highest difference in the league between pythagorean wins and actual wins. Obviously the one Peterman half was awful, but their D got shredded that game and Taylor took care of not losing so high. During the first half of the season they created a lot of key turnovers which led to wins over bad teams (Raiders, Bucs, Broncos) and they have that one underrated QB who consistently makes the best out of that bad offense. For raw stats guys: Taylor has 14 TD & 4 INT on the year. Sean McDermott lets his defense play very reactive with a zone-heavy scheme. That works well against not-so-good offenses, but they got killed by NO, LAC, NE (2x). Also the Bucs and Jets (2nd game) had a good one against that defense. Even though they are solid against the pass, they cannot defend the run to save their lives. This is a terrible matchup for them against a Jaguars offense that has a run-first approach, has a healthy offensive line and has Fournette back after sitting out a few games. Here is the game script: The Bills defense will struggle against the Jags’ run offense and as the game goes on, they will have to stack the box to not let the Jags run away with the lead and the clock. The Jaguars will jump a lead via defense, field position and their run game. As underrated as Taylor is, he cannot carry that offense against good defenses, because he doesn’t have any decent WR's (Kelvin Benjamin isn’t one), has a bad pass protection and the run game is bad because McCoy gets older, the offensive line is decimated and they don’t have an efficient Mike Gillislee in the rotation. The Jaguars can play the box with a high emphasis, because the Bills’ passing game will be non-efficient. It’s a complete mismatch for them. WR's and TE's will be locked down, McCoy is banged up and the Jaguars can even put a spy on Taylor because they don’t have to shade coverage to known QB-WR connections. I expect the Jaguars to completely shut down the Bills on offense and use short fields and Fournette to score a couple times in the first half and make Bortles comfortable and put him into some read-option and play action kind of plays that could lead to big gains. Jaguars are a top-5 playoff team by efficiency metrics and even Bortles cannot punish them this time. They are at home, first playoff game in years and they have the superior matchup against a team that should rather be 6-10 than 9-7. JAX have dominated bad teams this season and I expect them to do the same against the Bills. Jaguars will dominate this game from start to finish and I wouldn’t be surprised if they come close to a shutout. Jacksonville Jaguars -8 |
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01-06-18 | Falcons v. Rams -6 | Top | 26-13 | Loss | -105 | 124 h 36 m | Show |
The turnaround of the Los Angeles Rams has been fascinating. The offensive line is not elite, but they are good enough to execute Sean McVay's offense. McVay has made Todd Gurley the focus point of his offense (2100 scrimmage yards, 4.7 YPC, 60+ rec, 12.3 YPR, 19 total TD's) and has installed a scheme in which WR1 Sammy Watkins takes away the opponent’s best CB with coverage shades and allows guys like Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp, Gerald Everett, Tyler Higbee and Todd Gurley to thrive by attacking certain coverage schemes with route combinations that are also relatively easy to read for Jared Goff. Goff hasn’t turned into an elite QB, but much more towards an average QB who executes a great scheme with great personnel (see Case Keenum in Minnesota). The most underrated aspect of McVay's work is that he understood that Tavon Austin is a bad WR with bad hands. Austin went from 107 targets & 44 punt returns in 2016 to 10 and 17 in 2017. McVay uses Pharoh Cooper as a punt returner and Austin as a runner (55 carries / 4.5 YPC) and more importantly as a threat to the run on end arounds. As soon as Austin fakes an end around, the opposing defense has to account for it, which opens up a little bit more space for runs and play-fakes. He took away every responsibility of Austin to catch passes. This offense is tough to defend for any defense. As a defense you need to provide Jared Goff with brutal front-four pressure and your front seven needs to be good against the run and quick in space. The Seahawks in week 5, the Redskins (highest pressure rate in the league; were healthy in week 2), the Vikings and the Jaguars were able to play like that and they had quite that success, turning into four losses for the Rams. The defense started very slow this year, adjusting to DC Wade Philips’ 3-4 formation and with Aaron Donald not practicing with the team until week 2, but they have been improving throughout the year I don’t think the Falcons are a true playoff team. They have a lot of close wins, could have / should have lost vs Bears, Hawks, Saints first game, Lions. They are the only team in the NFL this year that got a win when throwing 3 picks, and even better, they won two of them. Matt Ryan is having a crazy regression year, the offensive line isn’t as good as last year, other WR's other than Julio are regressing because they aren’t schemed open as they were under Shanny. The defense plays highly conservatively, trying to keep the offense in front of them. Each unit has some quality pieces, but as a whole they don’t really play highly efficient. Their defense has a bad matchup against one of the best offenses in the league. The Rams offensive line is going to win in the trenches and dictate the matchup for the better part of the game, which is very important for Jared Goff. McVay can make Gurley his focus point to get the defense account for him. This will open up the whole playbook and I expect the Rams to show us their arsenal. If the Falcons need to play Gurley, it will open up space and matchups for the TE's and WR's if Sammy Watkins draws coverage from Desmond Trufant. I expect the Rams to attack that defense on all levels of the field and move the ball downfield. If they don’t screw up red zone opportunities, it should be an easy day for the offense. The Falcons should make their priority attacking the ground game, but that can only work in a low scoring affair in which Atlanta controls the clock. Because I expect the Rams to score a lot, the Falcons might be forced to throw the ball too early. However, I expect Wade Philips and a well-rested top-5 Rams defense to come up with a good game plan to contain a Falcons offense that has been struggling in key situations throughout the season. Aaron Donald is going to line up against the Falcons guards who are absolutely the weak spots on that offensive line and he is going to wreck havoc. Rams have a superior offensive matchup and should have enough defensive quality and brain to match up well here. Rams roll, expecting something like a 34-21 kind of game. Los Angeles Rams -6 |
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01-01-18 | Alabama v. Clemson +3 | Top | 24-6 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
Roll Tide has the #8 rushing offense in the FBS and are going to do their best to hammer the Clemson defense into submission. The Harris/Bo combo has tallied 1400+ yards rushing, and when you include the mobility of Hurts (768, 8 TD), Bama's running game is a real force and will be the key to the game for the offense. They are a bit limited in the passing game with only one proven weapon (Calvin Ridley 896, 3 TD) and will have to find a way to make the ground game work so that the Clemson offense stays off the field. QB Jalen Hurts is a proven winner and very smart with the football (15-1 TD to INT), but he must hit some big plays in the passing game for them to win this game. Clemson brings the #2 scoring defense and #6 total defense into this epic trilogy match-up. The defense does it all. #3 in the FBS in sacks per game. #6 in TFL. Great vs the run and the pass. 5th in the FBS on 3rd downs. Clemson has allowed 3.12 yards per carry and just 5 rushing TD's all season long. Compare that to previous years as such 2016: 3.70 and 20; 2015: 3.54 and 18. It seems that the Tigers are well positioned for this game. The Tigers have a very balanced offense and rank #30 in the FBS overall. QB Kelly Bryant had an excellent first season completing 67% of his passes with 13 TD's and only 6 INT's (362 attempts). He has also rushed for 646 yards and 11 TD's in his spare time. RB's T Feaster and T Etienne combined for 1,400 yards and 20 TD's. The passing game is very diverse with reliable Deon Cain leading the team with 659 yards receiving. They lack the #1 devastating force a la Mike Williams last season, but they are just as hard to defend this year with plenty of options. Clemson +3 |
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01-01-18 | Central Florida v. Auburn -9.5 | Top | 34-27 | Loss | -109 | 113 h 12 m | Show |
If Auburn runs their offense and doesn’t cough it up with turnovers it seems likely they get well into the 40's. Auburn had the #25 offense in the FBS and were #22 rushing. The passing attack did not pick up tons of yards, but they were very efficient (#10 FBS) with QB J Stidham throwing 17 TD's and just 4 INT's at 8.6 yards per attempt. Sure, there is a lot of short stuff, but they can bomb away once the run gets established. WR Ryan Davis grabbed 76 passes and WR Darius Slayton averaged 24 yards per grab. RB Kerryon Johnson had eight 100-yard rushing games. He was banged up near the end of the season and still almost led them to an SEC title. He is good to go for this game. Just to give you a frame of reference for how impressive the Auburn offense was – they played 6 games against top 12 defenses. Alabama, Georgia x 2, Clemson, Mississippi St and LSU. The Knights finished up the regular season with a perfect 12-0 record. The issue however isn't their offense, it's the defense. They were #93 ranked defense. They are ranked #81 in yards per play defense and #77 on 3rd downs. They do not get adequate D-Line push (#92 sacks per game; #79 TFL per game) and should not provide much resistance to Auburn if the Tigers play up to expectations. Note: their starting LT is out. Auburn is by far the sternest test of the season. Auburn has the #13 defense in the FBS and they are sound vs the run and the pass. They are also #3 in the SEC in sacks per game and can get to the quarter back with only four guys. They are excellent on 3rd downs (#18 FBS). The Tigers should be able to limit long drives and just need to limit the number of big plays. This feels like a game Auburn should win quite easily. Their offense has potential to explode and the defense will get enough stops. I am going to roll with the team that happened to beat Georgia and Alabama. Auburn -9.5 |
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12-31-17 | Panthers v. Falcons -3.5 | 10-22 | Win | 100 | 93 h 8 m | Show | |
The Falcons got short in the first matchup. They outgained the Panthers in significant key metrics, but just came up short. They were up 10-0, but guided the Panthers the way with costly turnovers that led to short fields. The Panthers were outplayed in the passing game by the Jets, Vikings, Saints and Bucs but got punished only once. I usually like to bet teams in rematches who should have won the first time because it tells you they have a decent matchup and correct some of their mistakes in the rematch. Another point is that the Panthers can still play for the 2nd seed, but the Vikings play in the early slate. So if the Vikings win, the Panthers would need Saints or Rams to lose to jump a seed. I don’t know if they are going to bring all the intensity and don’t pull out starters late if they know they cannot get a bye. With a huge lack at WR now, the Falcons have a solid matchup with their corners, and should be able to focus on Newton & CMC runs. Falcons at home should win by a TD. Atlanta Falcons -3.5 |
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12-31-17 | Cardinals v. Seahawks -9.5 | Top | 26-24 | Loss | -105 | 93 h 16 m | Show |
Seahawks found life last week and I don’t see them dropping this one. They are the most dangerous team heading into the playoffs right now. Seattle has had major injuries mid-way through the season and struggled mightily because of it, but similar to the Patriots early in the season, very good coaching is able to find ways to mask those injuries after a couple of games - as long as they have a well implemented system in place. The Seahawks still have the 2nd best defense heading into the NFC postseason in my opinion. No reason to wait for the possibility of them getting in to make some money off them, as they should be able to slaughter Arizona here. The Cardinals will have a very hard time scoring in this matchup. Seattle rolls. Seattle Seahawks -9.5 |
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12-31-17 | Bills v. Dolphins +3 | Top | 22-16 | Loss | -120 | 93 h 13 m | Show |
The Dolphins are a completely different animal at home where they are 4-2 SU (without London) and 5-1 ATS, beating opponents by 5 PPG. At home, they rank top-15 or even better in yards per pass diff and QBPR diff, just for instance. Adam Gase publicly called out his players, saying they are playing for their jobs the last two weeks. He also publicly said that he let owner Stephen Ross down. The reason is that they signed retired Jay Cutler to play QB, but that’s a different story. The Fins have a shot to play for their jobs and bring Stephen Ross a little smile by spoiling the Bills’ playoff hopes. Buffalo is also a different animal on the road where they are 2-5 SU, 3-4 ATS, losing by a whopping 8.9 PPG. I think the Dolphins will get it done, but I'll take the field goal insurance. Miami Dolphins +3 |
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12-31-17 | Saints -6.5 v. Bucs | Top | 24-31 | Loss | -110 | 93 h 11 m | Show |
Saints are the toughest matchup the Bucs have faced in weeks and the Saints are playing for home field advantage in the wild card round. Bucs are without OJ Howard, refuse to involve Cameron Brate somehow and are likely without Desean Jackson again. That leaves Mike Evans against Marshon Lattimore and the latter dominated that matchup in the first game so much so that Evans got ejected for throwing a punch. Saints should roll here. New Orleans Saints -6.5 |
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12-31-17 | Redskins v. Giants +3.5 | Top | 10-18 | Win | 100 | 90 h 60 m | Show |
Cousins is playing for a new contract and Gruden wants to end the season on a positive note after all the injuries. Giants went from a true playoff contender to a 2-13 team. However, the Giants come off a shutout loss on the road to play their last home game in front of their home fans. Will they show up? What happens to Eli Manning? Is it his last game and the team gets motivated to play for him? The Redskins defense is day and night in home/road. They give up the fewest yards per pass at home but the 3rd highest yards per pass on the road. Allowing the 2nd lowest QBPR at home, the 9th-highest on the road. I think there is a chance the Giants win straight up, but with more than a field goal insurance this is the safer play. New York Giants +3.5 |
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12-30-17 | Washington v. Penn State -1.5 | Top | 28-35 | Win | 100 | 5 h 1 m | Show |
Penn State have a really balanced attack and will face a stern challenge on Saturday. They boast two of the best players in college football in QB Trace McSorley (3,228, 26-8 TD to INT; 11 rushing TDs) and RB Saquon Barkley (1,134 rushing yards, 16 TD; 47 receptions). They also have a solid WR group and deadly receiving TE in Mike Gesicki (9 TDs). Four players have 500+ receiving yards. The big issue has been the offensive line. They were dead LAST in the Big 10 in TFL allowed per game and Barkley was really bottled up when facing elite defenses. Washington may fall into that category as they are the #1 run defense in the FBS and #5 defense overall. The Huskies can bring pressure (38 sacks) and Penn St will have to establish the run and stay out of 3rd and long. An offense with all kinds of weapons and Mayfield Jr at QB going up against a rock solid stop unit. The Huskies are not as deep on offense, but they still have the necessary trio to make things work. QB Jake Browning is smart and accurate (69% completions; 5 INT), Myles Gaskin is a true #1 RB (1,282 rushing yards, 19 TD) and Dante Pettis had over 700 yards receiving. Penn St also boasts a solid defense (#7 scoring FBS) that can get after the QB (38 sacks) and make stops on 3rd downs. A huge key to this game is the ability of Washington to run the football on the #15 rushing defense. Penn St has the ability to make things work in the passing game if the run game is not working. The Huskies will need Gaskin to keep the chains moving and give Browning time to hit plays downfield. It was a tough loss in the Rose Bowl last season for Penn. They should be jacked up to win on a big stage against a 10-win team. Barkley decided to play in this game and that has to give the troops a boost. I am going to roll with the team that faced three really good defenses (Ohio St, Michigan, Sparty) and managed to score 38,24 and 41 points). I prefer the variety of weapons on the Penn St side and the mobility at QB. I am also skeptical of the schedule that Washington faced and are particularly concerned given the way the PAC 12 has crapped the bed in bowl games so far (UCLA, Stanford, Arizona, Arizona St, Oregon, Washington St). The Big 10 has looked good so far (Purdue, Sparty, Iowa, Northwestern. Penn St just needs to avoid a lot of negative plays to win this game by 7+. Penn State -1.5 |
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12-28-17 | Michigan State +2.5 v. Washington State | Top | 42-17 | Win | 100 | 240 h 15 m | Show |
The Cougers will be without their top-2 WR for this game as both have left the team. They have depth in the group, but it probably cannot be a good thing to be without your two most productive receivers (combined for 14/35 of teams TD receptions). The running game is pretty much non-existent (#128 FBS) and they were also dead last in the PAC 12 in sacks per game allowed. Falk is a fine QB, but has the mobility of a glacier. They have to get the ball out quick to their talented guys and let the big plays happen. Michigan St’s defense is very good (#9 FBS, #5 vs run, #13 pass efficiency defense). The Michigan St run D has been really good against all, but elite rushing teams and it feels as though Washington St will need a premium day from Falk to win this affair. QB Brian Lewerke can play and he has an underrated group of WR's with which to work with. He also has some good mobility (#2 team in rushing; 5 rushing TD's) which is handy for keeping drives alive. Lewerke makes mistakes and has issues with accuracy sometimes, but he is more than capable of having a good game against a tough defense. The running game has been a bit of a disappointment, but LJ Scott can do some damage if he gets going early in the contest. Washington St was very good against the pass and decent enough vs the run this year although they did allow 23 rushing TDs. The Spartans should be able to have a balanced attack. Sparty has to figure out a way to consistently win 1st and 2nd down. It will help that Cougers’ star DL Mata’afa is suspended for the first half due to a targeting violation. Both defenses are good enough to win games by themselves, but I prefer the balance on the offensive side of the ball for Michigan St. I also give the edge in the Head Coach department to Dantonio. He is even better when playing the underdog card. Michigan State +2.5 |
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12-27-17 | Missouri -2.5 v. Texas | Top | 16-33 | Loss | -120 | 25 h 29 m | Show |
Missouri -2.5 Full analysis coming soon! |
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12-25-17 | Steelers v. Texans +10 | 34-6 | Loss | -115 | 139 h 58 m | Show | |
*Subscriber Only Pick* Houston Texans +10 |
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12-24-17 | Seahawks v. Cowboys -4.5 | Top | 21-12 | Loss | -110 | 115 h 54 m | Show |
Zeke is back. The Cowboys offense will be back. The Seahawks defense won’t be back. Not only is the Hawks defense playing like a bottom-10 unit right now with all the injuries, they also seem to have some locker room issues and some clueless coaches. Earl Thomas publicly called out Bobby Wagner for playing limited through injury and Wagner responded harsh on Twitter. Pete Carroll didn’t have an excuse or explanation for not pulling Wilson out of the game. He looked clueless. It looks like he doesn’t have the fire right now and is a little bit disengaged. Now they travel to Dallas to play a Cowboys team that just got its sh*t together with Sean Lee back and is licking its chops with Zeke coming back. Zeke completely alters the offense and I think the Cowboys have a superior matchup for the Seahawks this week. Wagner needed to leave the game last week after not being able to run sideline to sideline so I can’t expect him to be ready to go this week. Bobby Wagner injured or not playing is a terrible loss, especially against a diverse offense as the Cowboys will be with Zeke back. The Hawks defense won’t be able to close out the space and they don’t have the corners to cover Dez Bryant in the red zone. The Boys will play away from Earl Thomas and try to exploit all the matchups in the short passing game and Dez in isolation. Seahawks won’t have any answers for that offense and I doubt they can play catch-up with that offensive line (DAL defense ranks 2nd in pressure rate) and without a running game. Wilson had one magic game and that’s about it. The Boys offense can impose its will and kill the clock in the second half to avoid any kind of Wilson magic. Seeing some kind of Boys win in the range of 31-17. Dallas Cowboys -4.5 |
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12-24-17 | Jaguars -4 v. 49ers | Top | 33-44 | Loss | -102 | 31 h 45 m | Show |
Jimmy Garoppolo this, Jimmy Garoppolo that. All I am hearing about the Niners is how Jimmy G is the savior of the Niners. Let’s sum up the last three weeks: Niners played the Bears, Texans and Titans. The best defense of the bunch is Chicago and that isn't saying much. The Niners barely won and scored five field goals for 15 points. The other two games were against the 18th and 22nd ranked defenses. Neither of these defenses were able to exploit the Niners’ weaknesses – their OL and WRs. Also neither of these offenses was able to score enough. Thanks Tennessee HC Mike Mularkey, the Niners had a chance to beat the Titans on Sunday. Kudos to Jimmy & Kyle Shanahan – they did a great job winning all three games and making the Niners offense look alive again. What you don’t see in the stats is Garoppolos passion for throwing passes straight to defenders. There were like 8 passes that could have been intercepted over the last two weeks but defenders just didn’t make a play – regression incoming. This week there is a completely different animal coming to town. The Jacksonville Jaguars are looking like the most complete AFC team right now. The defense has been playing in its own league and is putting up better passing efficiency than the 2013 Seahawks. Over their three-game winning stretch, the Niners have +1.0 net yards per play which ranks 6th. Over their three-game winning stretch, the Jaguars have +1.7 net yards per play which ranks 2nd. It took me a few weeks to get away from the “As long as Blake Bortles is the QB, that team is going nowhere” thinking. That offense looks as solid as it gets and they are very well coached. Last Sunday they were without their three best WR's and best RB and they steamrolled the Texans. OC Nathaniel Hackett is doing an awesome job, making Blake Bortles look comfortable. Over the course of the season, this offense ranks exactly average. Since week 7, Bortles has 12 passing TD's, 2 rushing TD's and 3 INT's. The most surprising aspect is how the offensive line has been performing. They rank 5th in adjusted sack rate, Bortles has a of time in the pocket. You already saw that in week 1 against a healthy Texans defense, Bortles was able to drink a beer in the pocket. During the season, Brandon Linder, Jeremy Parnell and Patrick Omameh all got injured and were missing time at some point. Now they are back in full strength and provide Bortles with a lot of clean pockets throwing to speedy WR's like Westbrook, Cole and Mickens running crossing patterns on great route combinations across the field. On these patterns, Bortles rarely has to throw with anticipation, he just needs his WR's to clear zones or run a yard away from their defenders to hit them in stride. He also has been throwing a few dots over the last few games. With the offense moving towards an average unit and Bortles looking good in a great system, this team is getting very scary, because they will get Fournette and Allen Robinson back at some point. The 49ers are no matchup for the Jaguars. We can argue the cross-country trip, but the Jaguars were resting starters in the fourth quarter last week and still play for a first round bye since the Steelers lost Antonio Brown and Ben is a bit limping. Jags hold the tiebreaker over PIT. As much as Shanahan will try to scheme guys open and put Garoppolo into a lot of quick release passes, it won’t be enough to move the ball on an historically great defense. That offensive line is going to get eaten alive and the Jaguars don’t need to respect the run or the pass either way. Sacksonville will be ready to roll throughout that game. On offense, the Jaguars will do enough again against the No. 29 ranked defense in weighed DVOA. This is men vs boys, Jaguars take this one home by 10+. |
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12-24-17 | Lions -5 v. Bengals | 17-26 | Loss | -104 | 111 h 26 m | Show | |
*Subscriber Only Pick* Detroit Lions -5 |
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12-24-17 | Bills v. Patriots -11.5 | 16-37 | Win | 100 | 111 h 25 m | Show | |
*Subscriber Only Pick* New England Patriots -11.5 |
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12-24-17 | Browns +6.5 v. Bears | 3-20 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 35 m | Show | |
*Subscriber Only Pick* Cleveland Browns +6.5 |
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12-24-17 | Dolphins v. Chiefs -10 | 13-29 | Win | 100 | 27 h 26 m | Show | |
*Subscriber Only Pick* Kansas City Chiefs |
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12-24-17 | Falcons v. Saints -5.5 | Top | 13-23 | Win | 100 | 112 h 31 m | Show |
I am regretting taking the Falcons on MNF. I really thought they are good enough to beat a Buccaneers team that is without several defensive key players comfortably, but they once again showed that they don’t have it this year. They were even out gained on a per-play base, by the Bucs! The Saints committed an unusual 3 turnovers against the Jets last Sunday (two in the red zone) and got a touchdown called back, but they out gained them pretty comfortably. Two weeks ago we took the Saints at Atlanta and we got victimized by a variance game. The Saints lost Alvin Kamara early on which completely altered their game and the Falcons survived with the help of the refs after throwing 3 INT's. The Saints out gained them by 0.6 yards per play. I have no doubt that they would have won the game without the injuries. They wanted to win the game at the end and threw a game-deciding pick instead of going to overtime. This time the Saints will nearly be in full strength, with a full week to prepare, in their personal early Super Bowl. There is such a big discrepancy in efficiency for the Falcons, I don’t see how they overcome that another time to keep this one close. They aren’t a playoff team in terms of efficiency. Atlanta is still bad against passes to RB and that’s where the Saints are going to hammer them all game long as they were supposed to do two weeks ago. On the very first drive, Kamara caught two passes for 29 yards before getting shredded to a concussion. Expect the full Kamara dose this week in a game that shouldn’t bounce the Falcons’ way as it did two weeks ago. New Orleans Saints -5.5 |
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12-24-17 | Rams -6.5 v. Titans | Top | 27-23 | Loss | -110 | 111 h 29 m | Show |
This one looks like a no-brainer, but I believe it is just one. There are light years between these two teams: offense, defense, special teams, coaching. Sean McVay is an awesome coach and already miles ahead of Mike Mularkey. The Rams already played two early east coast games this year and came out as winners. McVay will have his team ready to compete, so I am not expecting a letdown spot by any means. The only key for the Titans is playing Mularkey ball with Derrick Henry vs a questionable run D, but just as long as the Rams don’t pull away on the scoreboard. Mularkey still loves using Murray as his primary back even though Henry runs much more efficient. Against a bad Titans pass defense, I truly expect the Rams to pull away on the scoreboard via the pass and avoid a lot of runs against a good run D (McVay is smart) and then it doesn’t help the Titans to face a top-5 pass D with Wade Philips coaching vs. Mike Mularkey & Torry Robiskie. It also doesn’t help that Mariota is seriously injured and is considering ankle surgery in the off-season. The Titans have played a bottom-3 schedule on both sides of the ball in terms of efficiency and they played the easiest W/L-schedule. They have been trending downwards since week 3 and are only still in the playoffs because they barely beat teams like Browns, Colts and Texans without Watson. They played against two top-10 offenses, Steelers and Texans with Watson, and they conceded 40 and 50 defensive points. I expect Mularkey to lose the coaching battle easily and the Rams to put up 30+ points here to make another statement into the direction of the 3rd seed. Los Angeles Rams -6.5 |
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12-22-17 | Central Michigan +3.5 v. Wyoming | Top | 14-37 | Loss | -105 | 67 h 38 m | Show |
It’s been really tough to watch the Cowboys’ offense this season. Even with a healthy Josh Allen under center the Pokes struggled to move the ball on the ground and through the air. The big story is the status of Allen. Right now he is expected to play, but as you know, a lot can change between now and game day when you are talking about a potential first round NFL draft pick nursing a “sore shoulder”. Allen has struggled due to a lack of weapons at RB or WR. Allen had just 13 TD passes this season (missed time due to injury), their leading RB has 474 yards and their top WR has just 520. The Pokes ended the season ranked #125 in total offense and managed just 4.7 yards per play (#11 Mountain West). They finished up the 2017 regular season #114 in 3rd down conversions. The Chippewas had an excellent season defensively finishing up ranked #2 in the MAC in yards per play allowed, #55 in total defense (FBS) and #7 in pass efficiency defense (FBS) and amazingly they were #1 in the FBS in forced turnovers. They allowed just 13 TD passes all season and picked off 19. Offensively they were pretty average statistically this season (#71 offense FBS), but they did heat up down the stretch scoring 56,35,42,42 and 31 in their final five games. QB Sugar Shane Morris is a lock to clear 3,000 yards in this game and has been solid this year, although to be honest, we are not crazy about the 13 INT's. That is particularly true when going up against an excellent Wyoming defense that was #2 in the FBS in forced turnovers. They have a balanced offense with an underrated RB in J Ward (988 yards rushing, 41 receptions), a fine 1-2 punch at WR (C Willis, M Chapman 1,400 yards and 14 TD's combined) along with star TE Tyler Conklin who is healthy after missing a lot of the season due to injury. It is no secret that they started to roll on offense once he got healthy. Josh Allen. Will he play ? Will he sit ? I feel Central Michigan is the better team and that they can win regardless of who starts at QB. Central Michigan +3.5 |
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12-20-17 | Louisiana Tech +5.5 v. SMU | Top | 51-10 | Win | 100 | 47 h 11 m | Show |
It was foreseen the Bulldogs would take a step back this season after losing a pair of 1,500+ yard receivers and a 4600-yard QB. They held their own this season finishing up #5 in C-USA in yards per play and were balanced (#54 rushing, #64 passing). QB J’Mar Smith is not a polished passer by any means, but he is improving (13-5 TD to INT ratio) and has some good mobility (5 rushing TD's) and threw those 5 picks in 386 attempts. The running game has a great 1-2 punch in Boston Scott (937 yards; 272 last two games) and J Craft (1,000-yards last season; one carry last three games due to injury; now healthy) which gets to go up against a soft SMU defense. They were ranked #121 in total defense this season and #112 vs the run allowing over 5 yards per carry. The pass defense was brutal as well finishing up #116 in pass efficiency defense, and even though La Tech is not explosive in the passing game, they have enough weapons to make you respect the possibility of a big play (Teddy Veal 832 yards). You need multiple fingers to count the number of times SMU yielded 600 yards of offense. Rock solid CB Jordan Wyatt had two pick 6's but will miss this contest. Leading tackler Mikial Onu is questionable. It feels like La Tech will be able to do whatever they want on offense. On Defense Louisiana Tech finished up #65 in total defense and did a good job against some good offenses like W Kentucky (22), S Carolina (17), UAB (23), and North Texas (24). They are well coached and experienced and have a knack for making the big play (16 INTs). Their defense was ranked #12 in the FBS in the red zone. There is no doubt that SMU gets some points, but it’s hard to see them go off on this defense. There were a lot of strange and close losses for LT this year so they have to feel like they are playing with house money coming into this one. Head Coach Holtz is 3-0 bowl games with LT and I think they have the coaching edge for this game. Overall it seems like a good spot for LT. The SMU defense is poor and it feels like the Bulldogs should be able to take advantage. If either team implodes I feel it will be SMU. Louisiana Tech +5.5 |
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12-18-17 | Falcons -6.5 v. Bucs | Top | 24-21 | Loss | -113 | 3 h 52 m | Show |
A lot of injuries on the Atlanta defensive side (Gerald McCoy, Lavante David, +many others), combined with a true must win for Atlanta considering they have two tough games remaining (NO and CAR) and need to win two of the remaining three to make the playoffs. Despite the Falcons not looking like a Super Bowl contender this season, they are coming off 10 days rest I expect them to come out firing tonight. People are jumping on the touchdown dogs at home, but the real value 'aka the Sharp Side' lies in the visiting team. Atlanta Falcons -6.5 |
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12-17-17 | Patriots -2.5 v. Steelers | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 7 h 51 m | Show | |
*Subscriber Only Pick* New England Patriots -2.5 |
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12-17-17 | Rams +2.5 v. Seahawks | Top | 42-7 | Win | 100 | 96 h 37 m | Show |
*Barking Dog* Russell Wilson’s performance against the Eagles was a fluke. His mechanics are still bad, maybe he is secretly injured. He needs a whole lot of strength to loft balls deep instead of flipping it as he did his entire career. Turns out into bad accuracy with high variation. This time is the Rams’ best chance to beat the Seahawks as their defense is falling apart. No Chancellor, Sherman, Avril and now they lost Wagner and Wright last Sunday. Wagner was already banged up and this week he is going to be a game time decision but I highly doubt he is going to play. Wagner is the play-caller and probably the best LB in the league this year. Anticipation against run & play-action and zone discipline take a huge hit without him and that’s really bad against the Rams as Sean McVays offense is based on heavy play fakes to open up receivers in space and attack soft spots in certain zone concepts. With a thin defensive line, it’s gonna be real tough to generate consistent stops against the Rams that way. You can expect the Seahawks defense to offer certain space to Gurley & TEs underneath and without Sherman they don’t have the corners to match up with Sammy Watkins, Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods who is likely returning this week. I expect the Rams to be able to score in the 20's this week and be very well prepared in a revenge game. The first time these two met in week 5, the Rams outgained the Seahawks 375 – 241 total yards and by an astonishing 1.6 yards per play. The key difference was that the Seahawks defense was healthy that time and held the Rams to 0/4 in the red zone. One red zone attempt was completely fluky because Gurley scored a touchdown and dropped the ball away for a touchdown. They also had a missed FG. So a score of 17-16 Rams would have mirrored the 60 minutes much better than 10-16. The Rams defense with getting Trumaine Johnson back should have enough power to overwhelm the Seahawks and they always had their number during the last couple seasons. Los Angeles Rams +2.5 (play down to -2.5 if necessary) |
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12-17-17 | Ravens -7 v. Browns | 27-10 | Win | 100 | 92 h 53 m | Show | |
*Fave of the Week* The Cleveland Browns spend the practice weeks inventing new ways to blow covers. They had their personal Super Bowl last week, their best chance to win a game. They were up 21-7 and managed to lose 21-27 despite outgaining the Packers by 1.5 yards per play. Now they get to play a Ravens team desperate for a win off a close prime time loss vs their rivals. Big Ben & Antonio Brown had a good matchup against Baltimore last week in their first game without Jimmy Smith. And it looks like they went off on the Ravens D, but the score looks much worse than it actually was. They had so many yards and points because they ran 85 plays with 66 passes. These high-paced games are rare and occur a handful of times per season. Defenses get worn out in the fourth quarter – same here as the Ravens gave up 19 points then. The Steelers did nothing really special from an efficiency standpoint, they just chased the game in a successful way through the best WR in the league. That’s an achievement without a doubt, but it shouldn’t let the Ravens defense look awful. The Browns don’t have a Ben-Brown matchup to exploit the Ravens’ secondary, even though Josh Gordon is a great addition to that offense. I am expecting the same kind of game we saw in the first matchup with the Ravens defense shutting down the Browns and the offense doing just enough to make the effort of the defense and special teams count. Ravens by 10+. Baltimore Ravens -7 |
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12-17-17 | Bengals v. Vikings -11.5 | 7-34 | Win | 100 | 3 h 25 m | Show | |
*Subscriber Only Pick* Minnesota Vikings -11.5 |
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12-17-17 | Packers +3 v. Panthers | 24-31 | Loss | -108 | 3 h 25 m | Show | |
*Subscriber Only Pick* Green Bay Packers +3 |
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12-16-17 | Chargers -1 v. Chiefs | Top | 13-30 | Loss | -110 | 105 h 43 m | Show |
If you had asked me before the season who is the better team in this one, I would have said Chargers. Ask me now and I scream Chargers! LAC is playing lights out right now, on offense and on defense. Their only weakness is red zone efficiency as they converted only 4 red zone trips out of 15 into touchdowns during the last three games. 26.6% would rank dead-last in the league over the course of a season. However, this number should regress to the mean (league average is 54%) sooner than later, for instance against the Chiefs’ 20th ranked red zone defense (56%). That’s the scary part – the Chargers were highly underachieving in that area of the field. But the interesting part is that they consistently put themselves into a position to score even a FG while their defense shuts opponents down. Since the Eagles game they have allowed an average of 13.9 defensive PPG. Despite all the early season struggles, their offense is really flying under the radar. Anthony Lynn has established a great scheme that creates open routes, quick options for Rivers and a lot of big play opportunities. In the first game between these two, the Chargers lost 10-24 in embarrassing fashion. They were 0-3 in turnovers and the Chiefs scored 17 points off three interceptions. It was a stretch when the Chiefs were red-hot and the Chargers were ice-cold. It was also the time when they haven’t figured out their offense yet, Keenan Allen was still rusty and Hunter Henry wasn’t involved in the offense. Now the situation is reversed – the Chargers are red-hot and playing like a true Super Bowl contender whereas the Chiefs lost 6 of their last 8 with two wins against the Broncos and the fraud team from Oakland. The Chargers are light years ahead of those two. Los Angeles is going to Arrowhead and should dominate this Chiefs squad from start to finish. Chiefs are sure to have some success via Travis Kelce and Kareem Hunt on the ground, but I expect their WRs to be non-existent and the Chargers defend passes to RBs very well. Chiefs will struggle in the most important area – passing offense. Even if the Chiefs make it into the red zone, they have been struggling mightily in that area of the field and the Chargers defense ranks 2nd in red zone efficiency (38%) right after the Jaguars. The Chargers offense should move the ball pretty efficiently here as the Chiefs have a bad defense with a bad pass rush and a horrible track record vs WR1's. Keenan Allen is red-hot and should kill that secondary even with Marcus Peters back. Chargers win this one and put themselves into the AFC West lead. Los Angeles Chargers -1 |
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