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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-03-19 | Lions v. Raiders UNDER 51 | Top | 24-31 | Loss | -115 | 121 h 57 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH is on the UNDER Lions/Raiders. Oakland is 3-4 and it's lost two straight. Oakland catches a break here though this weekend facing this "on again, off again" Lions offense. Detroit broke a three-game slide with a 31-26 win over the Giants. The Lions defense has been shaky the last few weeks as well, but the unit also catches a break facing this Raiders' offense which averages just 21 PPG (the Lions average 25.7). Key Trends: - Detroit has seen the total go under in its last two after playing a two-game home stand. - Oakland has seen the total dip below the posted number in nine of its last 11 when the total is greater than or equal to 49.5. The verdict: The conditions, the situation and the trends/numbers are all point to the "under" as the correct call here in my opinion! |
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11-02-19 | Virginia v. North Carolina OVER 46.5 | Top | 38-31 | Win | 100 | 53 h 23 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL CLASH OF THE TITANS is the over UVA/UNC. This is a big game for both teams and because of that, I think this total will go over the number sooner, rather than never. The Cavs are 5-3 and hungry for that sixth victory so that they can become bowl eligible. The UNC Tar Heels are 4-4 and they're also looking for a couple more victories. Virginia averages 30 PPG and it concedes 20.8. UNC averages 27.5 PPG and it allows 25.8. Key Trends: - UVA has seen the total go over the number in six of its last eight as a road dog. - UNC has seen the total eclipse the posted number in three of its last four off a victory vs. a conference rival. The verdict: UVA has won two straight in this series, including a 31-21 win last season. I expect an even higher-scoring affair here; play the over! |
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11-01-19 | Spurs v. Warriors UNDER 225 | Top | 127-110 | Loss | -108 | 30 h 27 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL BIG TIGER is on the UNDER Spurs/Warriors. The Spurs struggled to score points in their 103-97 setback at the Clippers just last night. The Warriors are now without star Steph Curry after he broke his hands in their last game. The Spurs will try to take advantage, but the home side is going to have to go through some adjustments here as it looks to find an identity. This one has the feel of more of a "chess match," with a lot of "half court sets" being run on the offensive end. Key Trends: - San Antonio has seen the total go under the number in 15 of its last 21 as a road favorite of six points or less. - Golden State has seen the total dip below the posted number in 14 of its last 21 as an underdog. The verdict: San Antonio is tired and Golden State is "shell shocked." For all the reasons listed above, play the under! |
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11-01-19 | Navy v. Connecticut OVER 54.5 | Top | 56-10 | Win | 100 | 76 h 5 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL BEATDOWN is on Navy/UConn OVER. UConn broke a six-game losing streak with a 56-53 win over UMass and I look for it to keep the foot on the gas here as well as it looks to pull off bac-to-back victories. Navy is 6-1 after holding on for a 41-38 win over Tulane and it'll also be out for another victory here, feeling confident after having won six straight in this series. Navy QB Malcom Perry has 18 TD's already this year and last week the Midshipmen had 453 total yards of offense. Overall Navy averages 37.9 PPG and it allows 19.7. The Huskies had 539 yards of offense vs. the Minutemen last weekend. Key Trends: - The Huskies have allowed at least 35 points in four of their last six matchups. - The Midshipmen have four 40-point games this year, including in two of their last three. The verdict: The overall situation and the numbers both point to a "shootout" in my opinion; play the over! |
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11-01-19 | Flyers v. Devils UNDER 6.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -103 | 27 h 57 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH is on the Flyers/Devils under. I think goaltenders Carter Hart of the Flyers and Corey Schneider of the Devils will be the story lines in tomorrow's summaries. Carter already blanked the Devils at home earlier this month and he's been solid all year for the Flyers, who won't be lacking for motivation here as they come in having gone 0-2 in their three-game trip. New Jersey has lost two straight as well and it enters having posted the least amount of goals in the league so far with just 28. Key Trends: - Philly has already seen the total go under the number in all four games this year when playing with two days rest. - New Jersey has seen the total dip under in 30 of its last 46 after scoring four or more goals in its previous contest. The verdict: I think Hart steps up again here vs. this Devils side which has been consistently inconsistent on the offensive end of the ice. Look for Schneider to buckle down at home as well; this number is a tad high, play the under! |
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10-31-19 | 49ers v. Cardinals UNDER 44.5 | Top | 28-25 | Loss | -110 | 75 h 28 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK is on the under 49ers/Cards. Arizona enters off a tough loss against the Saints and it's now 3-4. San Francisco is 7-0 and it'll be trying to not get caught looking past the Cards to its big matchup vs. the Seahawks next weekend. Arizona had won three straight until last week's setback. Cards' rookie Kyler Murray though is going to now face the NFC's top defensive unit on a short week and I believe he'll struggle. The 49ers have been blowing teams out this year, but I also think that the short amount of time to prepare will be detrimental to the visitors offense as well. Key Trends: - San Fran has seen the total go under in ten of its last 15 after playing a game at home (including in both such instances this year.) - Arizona has seen the total dip under in 19 of its last 30 vs. the conference. The verdict: Look for this divisional battle to fall well below the posted number once it's all said and done! |
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10-31-19 | Flames v. Predators OVER 6 | Top | 6-5 | Win | 104 | 28 h 3 m | Show |
My 10* ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE is the OVER Flames/Preds. These two teams are moving in opposite directions and I expect those trends to continue. Calgary has lost two in a row and it's playing it's third straight on the road. The Predators are 8-3-1 and they enter having won four straight. Calgary was one of the highest scoring teams in the league last year, but this season it's so far only averaging 2.50 GPG. The Predators have outscored their competition 15-4 during their recent win streak and I think they keep the foot on the gas here as well. Key Trends: - Calgary has seen the total soar over in seven of its last nine road games after scoring one goals or less in two or more straight outings. - Nashville has seen the total go over the number in 12 of its last 18 after shutting out its previous opponent. The verdict: Calgary is desperate and is going to be forced to match the high-flying pace of the home side; this one has over written all over it! |
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10-31-19 | West Virginia v. Baylor UNDER 57 | Top | 14-17 | Win | 100 | 75 h 60 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL BIG TIGER is on the UNDER WVU/Baylor. Baylor averages 38.9 PPG, which ranks it 12th in the country. The Bears have a balanced offense, which I believe will concentrate on the run today vs. a WVU team that's lost three straight, but which will also try to keep the Bears offense off the field of play today by controlling the ball while on offense. Baylor only allows 19.1 PPG and I think the Mountaineers have a difficult time mounting much of an offensive attack tonight (WVU is predictable and one-dimensional on offense with a run game which averages only 89 PPG.) Key Trends: - WVU has seen the total dip under in four of its last five following its bye week. - Baylor has seen the total dip under in five of its last six after scoring 37 points or more in its last game. The verdict: I expect more of a "chess match," than a "shootout;" play the under! |
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10-31-19 | Heat v. Hawks OVER 216.5 | Top | 106-97 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 5 m | Show |
My 10* CLASH OF THE TITANS is on the OVER Heat/Hawks. Despite the Hawks not having star Trae Young in the line-up, I think we'll see a faster paced, higher-scoring shootout in this particular matchup. The Hawks lost to Miami on Tuesday 112-97 and they'll be out for some immediate revenge. The Heat though will be looking to take advantage and to build on their 3-1 start to the season. Overall Miami is averaging 118 PPG, while conceding 110. Key Trends: - Miami has seen the total go over in seven of its last ten after scoring 105 points or more in four straight game. - Atlanta has seen the total eclipse the posted number in 61 of its last 100 following a SU loss. The verdict: I like Atlanta to push the pace from start to finish as it looks to avenge the loss to the Heat on Tuesday; play the over! |
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10-30-19 | Panthers v. Avalanche UNDER 6.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 13 m | Show |
My 10* play is on the UNDER Panthers/Avs. Both teams come in off high-scoring losses and because of that, I'm expecting a much more defensive mind-set from each of these teams. The Panthers lost 7-2 in Vancouver, while the Avs fell 5-2 at home to the Ducks. Panthers' netminder Sergei Bobrovsky is 4-2-3 with a 3.79 GAA this year, while Avs goalie Phillipp Grubauer is 6-1-1 with a 2.59 GAA. Key Trends: - Florida has seen the total go under in six of its last eight road games after allowing six or more goals in a loss in its previous outing. - Colorado has seen the total dip under in 32 of its last 52 vs. clubs with losing records. The verdict: I expect a hard-fought and ultimately lower-scoring UNDER in this one! |
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10-30-19 | Wolves v. 76ers UNDER 225 | Top | 95-117 | Win | 100 | 26 h 14 m | Show |
My 10* play is on the UNDER Wolves/76ers. Minnesota is 3-0. Philadelphia is 3-0. Two teams enter with a perfect record, but only one will leave with that mark in tact. Whoever comes out on top, I think the competitive nature of this one will help in driving this total well under the posted number once it's all said and done. Key Trends: - The Wolves have seen the total go under in 11 of their last 17 as a road dog in the 6.5 to 12 points range. - The 76ers have seen the total dip uner in 20 of their last 32 home games as a favorite in the 6.5 to 12 points range. The verdict: Both teams are in the middle of the pack in scoring, but in the bottom half in three-point percentage. Expect this "war" to fall under at the end of the night! |
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10-29-19 | Nationals v. Astros UNDER 7.5 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -115 | 36 h 34 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Nats/Astros. Justin Verlander has been terrible in the playoffs so far for the Astros, losing three of four. That included giving up four runs to the Nationals in his last start. Clearly the veteran has the tools and pedigree in place to turn things around and if not now, when? The Nationals are struggling at the plate over the last two games, so Verlander has a big opportunity to shine here. But Nationals' starter Stephen Strasburg also has a big opportunity here to help his team rebound. And Strasburg has been brilliant in the playoffs, winning four of his last five. Key Trends: - Washington has seen the total go under the number in ten of its last 15 as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range. - Houston has seen the total dip below the number in 13 of its last 20 as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. The verdict: I believe the men on the mound will be the main story lines in tomorrow's summaries; play the under! |
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10-28-19 | Nuggets v. Kings OVER 218 | Top | 101-94 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 13 m | Show |
My 10* play on the OVER Nuggets/Kings. I think the 0-3 Kings push the pace from start to finish in this one. The Kings average 96 PPG and they concede 120. The Nuggets average 108 PPG and they allow 104. Key Trends: - Denver has seen total go over in 20 of its last 30 after a win by six points or more. - Sacramento has seen the total go over in nine of its last 13 after scoring 90 points or less in its previous contest. The verdict: I expect a faster paced, higher-scoring shootout in this one! |
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10-27-19 | Ducks v. Golden Knights UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
My 10* ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE is on the under Ducks/Knights. Anaheim comes in off an impressive 5-2 win in Colorado just last night, but I expect a more defensive affair in its second game of the back to back scenario. The Knights won't be taking anything for granted here either after they got blown out at home by the Avs in their last game. Anaheim comes in average only 2.27 GPG, while conceding only 2.18. The Knights are averaging only 2.92 GPG, while allowing 2.83. Key Trends: - The last five in this series have fallen under the number. The verdict: The overall situation and the recent history of lower-scoring affairs whenever these sides meet makes the under the correct call here! |
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10-27-19 | Browns v. Patriots OVER 45.5 | Top | 13-27 | Loss | -106 | 123 h 37 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL U OF THE U is on the OVER Browns/Pats. This is a big game for the Browns. Not so much for the undefeated defending champs. The Patriots love beating up on the Browns whenever they can, but Cleveland is in dire need of a victory and it enters off its bye week. I simply can't see the Browns sitting back and looking for the Pats to make the first mistake. Cleveland has to be aggressive from start to finish in this one if it has any hopes of pulling of an upset. Both teams sport awesome defenses, but the overall situation in my opinion points more to a "shootout," than a "chess match." Key Trends: - The Browns have seen the total eclipse the posted number in their last three after having lost three of their last four games. - The Patriots have seen the total go over the number in six of their last nine as a home favorite in the 7.5 to 14 points range. The verdict: Taking into account the situational and trend based factors above, I'm definitely on the over in this one! |
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10-26-19 | San Diego State v. UNLV OVER 46 | Top | 20-17 | Loss | -107 | 105 h 54 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL U OF THE U is on the OVER SDSU/UNLV. SDSU is bowl eligible and 6-1 overall after beating San Jose State 27-17 last weekend. So far the Aztecs have been exceptional defensively, but I think the visitors unit will be tested here today. The Rebels lost to Boise State, but then bounced back with a win over Vanderbilt. Overall the Rebels average 25.4 PPG and they concede 36.1. Key Trends: - SDSU has in fact seen the total go over in interestingly four of its last five after a win of ten points or more over a conference rival. - UNLV has seen the total eclipse the posted number in six of its last eight off a road loss. The verdict: UNLV will be airing it from start to finish and it's defense has been terrible. Look for the Owls to take some rare shots down field as well today. This number is a shade low, play the over! |
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10-26-19 | Raptors v. Bulls UNDER 223 | Top | 108-84 | Win | 100 | 27 h 3 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH is on the UNDER Raptors/Bulls. The Bulls came from behind to knock off the Grizzlies 110-102 last night. Toronto had the lead for most of the game in Boston, but it then fell flat in a 112-106 setback. While still only the start of the season, I think each team comes in "gassed" after their respective decisions last night and because of that, I'm absolutely expecting much more of a defensive battle than what this large O/U line would suggest. This one sets up great for the under from a situational stand point. Key Trends: - Toronto has seen the total go under the number in nine of its last 11 off a loss to a division rival. - Chicago has seen the total dip below the posted number in 14 of its last 22 home games when the total in the contest is greater than or equal to 220. The verdict: The situation and the numbers/trends both point to the under as the correct call in this one! |
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10-24-19 | Redskins v. Vikings UNDER 42 | Top | 9-19 | Win | 100 | 58 h 14 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK is on the UNDER Skins/Vikings. Washington isn't going to be playing in the postseason after its terrible start. It's looked better since firing Jay Gruden though, earning a win over the hapless Dolphins, before then going down to the wire in an extremely defensive affair, but eventual loss to the 49ers last weekend. On the short week, I think it'll be the Redskins' defensive unit which is once again the main story line for Washington this week (note that the Skins will be extra motivated defensively as well here facing ex teammate Kirk Cousins.) The Vikes are surging and should have no problem controlling this contest in all facets. And with upcoming tough road games in at KC and Dallas, there's no reason to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish either. Key Trends: - Washington has seen the total go under the number in 12 of its last 18 following a loss. - Minnesota has seen the total dip under in three of its last four after scoring 30 points or more in its last game. The verdict: This one has defensive battle written all over it; play the under! |
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10-24-19 | SMU v. Houston UNDER 68.5 | Top | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 57 h 21 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK is on the UNDER SMU/Houston. The Mustangs are 7-0 and they trounced Temple 45-21 last time out. The Cougars are 3-4 and they're going to be hungry for a victory here as time is running out to become eligible. Houston's offense is simply not good enough to score many points here. The best strategy that the home side can employ here is to control the ball while on offense. Key Trends: - SMU has seen the total dip under the number in nine of its last 13 after playing a conference game. - Houston has seen the total go under the number in its last four off a no-cover where it won as the favorite. The verdict: The Cougars do come in off the 24-17 win over UConn and they definitely won't be going down without a fight today. I'm expecting a lower-scoring defensive war; play the under! |
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10-24-19 | Sharks v. Canadiens OVER 6.5 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 10 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL BIG TIGER is on the OVER Sharks/Habs. Both teams had big expectations going into this season and while each has shown promise at times in the early going, neither can be overly happy at where they sit at the moment. The Sharks are 3-6 and the Habs are 4-5. San Jose's offensive numbers are skewed though after a very slow start (just 2.67 GPG scoring average overall, but SJ has scored 19 goals over its last five games. The Sharks though have been terrible defensively, allowing 3.56 GPG thus far. Montreal comes in off a 4-3 road loss in Minnesota, but they do have the fifth-best power-play unit overall. Key Trends: - Both teams have averaged nearly four goals per game over their past five games. - Both teams are in the bottom 15 in goals allowed. The verdict: Expect a wide open and explosive affair; play the over! |
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10-23-19 | Nationals v. Astros UNDER 7.5 | Top | 12-3 | Loss | -113 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK is on the UNDER Nats/Astros. While yesterday's total blew past the posted number, I expect a much different result this time around in Game 2. I'm basing this pick primarily on the starting pitchers, but also a few key O/U trends that match up well in this position. Key Trends: - Stephen Strasburg of the Nationals went 18-6 with 3.32 ERA this year and he's 3-0 with a 1.64 ERA in the post-season. - Justin Verlander of the Nationals went 21-6 with a 2.58 ERA this season and he's 1-2 with a 3.70 ERA in the playoffs (overall Verlander is 19-12 with a 2.57 ERA lifetime at Minutemaid Park.) The verdict: Additionally note that Washington has seen the total dip below the number in eight of its last 13 road games after scoring five or more runs in its previous contest. As mentioned off the top, while yesterday's game snuck over, this one has "duel" written all over it in my opinion! |
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10-21-19 | Blue Jackets v. Maple Leafs UNDER 6 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 6 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL BIG TIGER is on the under Jackets/Leafs. Key Trends: Analysis posted shortly. |
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10-20-19 | Eagles v. Cowboys UNDER 49 | Top | 10-37 | Win | 100 | 54 h 24 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL CLASH OF THE TITANS is the under Eagles/Cowboys. They say defense wins championships. These teams are both filled with plenty of offensive talent, but it's going to be the one which gets the job done defensively today that wins this one in my opinion. It could not get any bigger for these 3-3 divisional foes. Neither will want to make a mistake here and I expect each to "control" the ball while on offense. Key Trends: - Philadelphia has seen the total go under the number in its last three road games when the total is greater than or equal to 49. - Dallas has seen the total dip under the number in six of its last eight off a non-conference contest. The verdict: This one has defensive, low-scoring battle written all over it; play the under! |
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10-20-19 | Capitals v. Blackhawks OVER 6.5 | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 28 h 54 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL CLASH OF THE TITANS is on the OVER Capitals/Blackhawks. Both teams come in on two-game win streaks. Washington is 5-2-2 and the Blackhawks are 2-2-1. Chicago has so far played the fewest games in the Western Confernece. The home side is led by Patrick Kane offensively, as he has five goals and two assists so far. Overall the Hawks are allowing and conceding three goals this season. So far Capitals' netminder Braden Holtby owns a 3.83 GAA this season, but he's been fortunate as his team has potted three or more goals in three straight games. Key Trends: - Washington has seen the total go over the number in 53 of its last 89 after scoring four or more goals in its previous contest. - Chicago has seen the total soar over in 36 of its last 56 non-conference games. The verdict: These offenses are firing on all cylinders and I look for that trend to carry over into a high-scoring affair here; play the over! |
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10-20-19 | Vikings v. Lions UNDER 44 | 42-30 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 5 m | Show | |
My 8* play on the under Vikes/Lions. These are two of the best defensive clubs in the league and this is a very important game. In my opinion, this number is much too high. The Vikes average 25 PPG and they concede 15 (ranked sixth.) Detroit averages 24 PPG and it allows 23. Key Trends: - Vikes have seen the total go under the number in all three road games so far this season. - Detroit has seen the total go under the number in seven of its last ten as an underdog. The verdict: Neither teams wants to make a mistake here. This one has the feeling of a "chess match," rather than a high-scoring shootout; play the under! |
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10-19-19 | Nevada v. Utah State OVER 58.5 | Top | 10-36 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 19 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL CLASH OF THE TITANS is on the OVER Nevada/Utah State. This is a big Mountain West Conference game. Nevada is 4-2 after a 41-38 shootout win over San Jose State, while Utah State is now 3-2 after a 42-6 loss to No. 2 LSU. Nevada was blown out by Hawaii two weeks ago, so it made a change at QB last weekend and the move paid immediate dividends with Malik Henry going for 352 yards and two TD's. Clearly Utah State will be looking to bounce back after last week's frustrating setback. Previous to that the Aggies had won three straight Key Trends: "We are coming off a bye week, so we've had a little more time to evaluate them,” said Utah State coach Gary Anderson. “They are a very tough-minded team, overall, that has dealt with some ups and downs, which this crazy game of football and this conference will give you. They have been resilient, they've been tough-minded and they've battled through everything that has come their way. They started a new quarterback last game and he did a nice job.” The verdict: Utah State averages 32 PPG and it has a dynamic QB in Jordan Love. Nevada's new QB Henry isn't afraid to air it out either. I look for this one to sneak over the number sooner, rather than later! |
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10-19-19 | Senators v. Coyotes UNDER 6 | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -105 | 29 h 8 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL BIG TIGER is on the under Senators/Coyotes. The Senators have only managed two goals over their last two games. Overall Ottawa is allowing 3.50 GPG anda averaging just 2.33. The Coyotes though have won two straight and they come in with a combined 1.83 GAA average. Key Trends: - Sens netminder Craig Anderson looked good in his last start despite the loss, allowing one goal on 34 shots in a 2-0 loss to the Wild. - Coyotes' goalie Darcy Kuemper is 3-2 with a 1.62 GAA, giving up five goals over his last three starts combined. The verdict: Expect a hard-fought, lower-scoring battle between these two competent starting goaltenders; play the under! |
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10-18-19 | Hurricanes v. Ducks UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 33 h 31 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL CLASH OF THE TITANS is on the UNDER Canes/Ducks. Carolina is off a 5-2 loss at San Jose, but it enjoys four whole nights off after this game before a game in Columbus. The Ducks have a night off before a game vs. Calgary, which precedes a lengthy and difficult road trip. Key Trends: - The Hurricanes have an amazing record despite a terrible powerplay, at 17.8 percent. They make up for it on the other end with a penalty kill that hits at a 77.8 percent rate. - Canes' goaltender Petr Mrazek is 4-0 with a 1.94 GAA - Ducks' goalie Ben Gibson is 4-2-0 with a 1.85 GAA. The verdict: I expect these two streaking non-conference clubs to clamp down defensively and for these two hot goaltenders to be the main story line's in tomorrow's summaries; play the under! |
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10-18-19 | Ohio State v. Northwestern OVER 49 | Top | 52-3 | Win | 100 | 36 h 13 m | Show |
My 10* play is on Ohio State/Northwestern OVER. Will Northwestern be able to put up any points vs. an OSU defense that allows only 8.8 PPG on average? Ohio State is 6-0 and it'll be cautious here to not look past its opponent. The Buckeyes will indeed look to go up early and then maintain the rest of the way. The Wildcats though come out of their bye week with nothing to lose. NW needs to string wins together if it has any hopes of going bowling and it won't be holding anything back on the offense side of things as it tries to keep pace with its juggernaut opponent tonight. From a situational stand point, this one definitely sets up as a "shootout" in my opinion. Key Trends: - Ohio State has seen the total go over in five of its last six as a road favorite of 14.5 points or more. - NW has seen the total eclipse the posted number in four of its last five after having lost three of its last four games. The verdict: Ohio State is also the No. 2 ranked team in the nation as far as scoring. Look for this one to fly over sooner, rather than later! |
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10-17-19 | Chiefs v. Broncos UNDER 48.5 | Top | 30-6 | Win | 100 | 28 h 16 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL BLOWOUT is on the under Chiefs/Broncos. Kansas City has dropped back to back home games, suddenly looking poor on both sides of the ball. The defense has been especially atrocious, but the unit catches a break here facing Joe Flacco and the Broncos' run first offense. Flacco has been better of Denver's last two games (both Broncos wins after starting the year 0-3), but it's been the Denver defense which has been the reason for the big turnaround. Mahomes is dealing with an injured ankle right now and he's getting little support from his run game, which is averaging only 87 YPG. KC has to establish the run in the thin air of Denver tonight to alleviate the pressure of Mahomes as well. This one has lower-scoring "under" written all over it in my opinion. Key Trends: - The Chiefs have seen the total dip under the number in six of their last seven after having lost two of their last three games. - The Broncos have seen the total dip under in three of their last four home games as an underdog of three points or less. The verdict: On the short week, I believe the defenses become the main story line in tomorrow's summaries; play the under! |
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10-16-19 | Hurricanes v. Sharks UNDER 6.5 | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -111 | 33 h 41 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK is on the under Canes/Sharks. Carolina comes to The Shark Tank off a 2-0 win in LA just last night. San Jose hasn't played since a 3-1 win at home over Calgary. Petr Mrazek has been decent so far for Carolina and Sharks' netminder Martin Jones looked superb in the victory over the Flames, stopping 32 of 33 shots. Key Trends: - Carolina has seen the total go under the number in seven of its last ten after shutting out its opponent in its last game. - San Jose has seen the total dip under in 35 of its last 60 non-conference contests. The verdict: I expect a hard-fought and ultimately lower-scoring goaltenders battle in this one; play the under! |
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10-16-19 | South Alabama v. Troy OVER 54.5 | Top | 13-37 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 13 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL BLOWOUT is on the over South Alabama/Troy. South Alabama has faced some stiff competition in Nebraska and Memphis early, which is definitely a big reason why its just 1-5. Troy though has been terrible, especially defensively this year and I think it'll have its hands full with this hungry underdog and QB Cephus Johnson, who has shown signficiant strides with each outing. Both teams have had a week off to prepare as well. But as mentioned off the top, the Trojans secondary has been downright terrible, ranked 124th out out 130 FBS teams by conceding 10.22 yards per attempt. Key Trends: - South Alabama has interestingly seen the total go over the number in three of its last four off a cover where it lost as an underdog. - Troy has seen the total go over the number in five of its last six following its bye week. The verdict: With the Jaguars pushing the pace and airing it from start to finish and with the home side having to match pace, I look for this total to soar over sooner, rather than later; play the over! |
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10-15-19 | Flyers v. Flames OVER 6 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 29 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL CLASH OF THE TITANS is on the Flyers/Flames over. The Flyers are 2-0-1 to start the year, but they enter off a 3-2 shootout loss to the Canucks. Philadelphia enters avearging 3.33 GPG, while conceding only 1.67. Yes Philly' goalie Carter Hart has been exceptional thus far, but I think he'll have his hands full in this difficult non-conference road arena. The Flames will be looking to bounce back here, as back-to-back losses has them at 2-3-1 on the year. Whether its Cam Talbot or David Rittich in net, I feel they're going to also have their hands full with this improved Flyers team which is looking to keep the points streak alive with another victory here. Key Trends: - Philadelphia has seen the total go over the number in 32 of its last 52 following a non-conference game. - The Flames have seen the total eclipse the posted number in 11 of their last 17 after playing three consecutive road games. The verdict: When taking into account the situational factors and the above strong trends, I do indeed feel that this one will soar over sooner, rather than later; play the over! |
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10-14-19 | Lions v. Packers UNDER 45.5 | Top | 22-23 | Win | 100 | 35 h 28 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL MASSACRE is on the under Lions/Packers. Detroit is 2-1-1 and it's been its lights out defensive play which has been the difference for it so far this year. Lions' QB Matt Stafford and the offense has been acceptable, but clearly it's been Detroit's defense which has been the difference maker for the team in the early going. The Lions have already faced some eltie QB's this year, including Philip Rivers, Carson Wentz and Patrick Mahomes and they've for the most part shut down all three (including holding Mahomes to no TD's.) Green Bay's offense has been decent as well, but it's been the Packers' defense which has "stolen the show" as well this season. Key Trends: - WR Davantae Adams is out for the Packers. - Detroit has seen the total go under the number in six of its last eight after allowing 30 points or more in its last game. The verdict: I look for these top rated defenses to take over this one; this number is high, play the under! |
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10-14-19 | Cardinals v. Nationals UNDER 7 | Top | 1-8 | Loss | -100 | 35 h 50 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK is the under Cards/Nats. This is a pivotal game in this series. A win here for the Cards and they're right back in it. A victory for the Nationals means they have a strangle hold on it and the pressure is truly off. These are also two World class pitchers and I expect them to go deep into this one. Jack Flaherty (11-8, 2.75 ERA, 0.97 WHIP) held the Nats to one run over five innings in his only matchup against them. Stephen Strasburg (18-6, 3.32) allowed three runs over 11 innings vs. the Card this season and overall vs. them he's 3-2 with a 2.50 ERA in eight career matchups. Key Trends: - St. Louis has seen the total go under the number in interestingly in 15 of its last 23 after allowing four runs or less in three straight games. - Washington has seen the total dip under in 50 of its last 90 following a victory. The verdict: The Cards' offense has been non-existent in this series and I don't see anything changing with the shift in venue; this one has "duel" written all over it. Play the under! |
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10-13-19 | Saints v. Jaguars UNDER 44.5 | Top | 13-6 | Win | 100 | 119 h 36 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL BIG TIGER is on the UNDER Saints/Jags. This is a big contest and I believe it'll be the defensive units which become the main story lines in tomorrow's summaries. Teddy Bridgewater has done a great job filling in for Drew Brees, winning three straight, but I think he'll have his hands full here in this difficult road venue. Garnder Minshew has also filled in admirably in a backups role for the Jags, winning two of his first four starts. Key Trends: - The Saints average and concede 23 PPG. - The Jags average 22 points and they allow 23. The verdict: I can't see the home side wanting to turn this one into a "shootout" with the high-flying Saints. Instead, I look for the home side to try and control this one and limit mistakes while on offense. This one has low-scoring "under" written all over it! |
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10-12-19 | Arkansas v. Kentucky OVER 53.5 | Top | 20-24 | Loss | -108 | 102 h 53 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL CLASH OF THE TITANS is on the over Arkansas/Kentucky. This is a big game for both of these 2-3 teams. Kentucky has had a week off to absorb three straight losses and it comes into this one focused and motivated to get off the schneid. Arkansas also enters off its bye week rested and ready to try and pull off an upset here. Led by Nick Starkel, the Razorbacks aren't going to be afraid to air this one out (Starkel so far has 1000 passing yards and 11 TD's.) Kentucky averages 23.4 PPG and it concedes 24.4. Something has got to give here. Key Trends: - Arkansas has interestingly seen the total go over the number in five of its last six off a cover where it lost SU as a dog. - Kentucky has seen the total soar over the number in seven of its last nine as a home favorite. The verdict: Both rested teams will push from start to finish and I expect that to translate into production on the offensive side of the ball; this number is low, play the over! |
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10-11-19 | Nationals v. Cardinals OVER 8 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -104 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL CLASH OF THE TITANS is on the OVER Nats/Cards. Anibal Sanchez toes the rubber for the visitors, while Mile Mikolas gets the nod for the home side. Each looked sharp in their respective starts in their NLDS opening duties, but I believe each will take a step back in the opener of the NLCS. Sanchez is 2-4 with a 3.34 ERA in eight career starts vs. St. Louis, while Mikolas is 2-2 with a 4.95 ERA in 26 career innings vs. Washington. Key Trends: - Washington has seen the total go over the number in 13 of its last 19 when playing with a day off. - St. Louis has seen the total go over the number in 16 of its last 24 as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. The verdict: Look for these two big hitting line-ups to chase these starters early and expect this total to eclipse the posted number sooner, rather than later! |
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10-10-19 | Giants v. Patriots OVER 42.5 | Top | 14-35 | Win | 100 | 60 h 25 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK is on the OVER Giant's Patriots. The Patriots' defense leads the league in almost every statistical category, but New England has yet to face a top tier offensive unit yet. And once again, it won't have to on Thursday night either, as New York comes to town off a listless 28-10 home loss to Minnesota. New York QB Daniel Jones has 760 yards passing with four TD's and three INT's. Jones and company had won two straight previous to that and clearly the rookie will be given the "green light" to try and pull off the upset today. The Giants defense has been decent to this point, but clearly this is a difficult task matching up against Tom Brady in peak form and on his own field. Key Trends: - New York has seen the total go over the number in seven of its last ten after scroing 14 points or less in its previous game. - New England has seen the total soar over in interestingly three of its last four off a road blowout win by 21 points or more. The verdict: So far the Pats have seen the O/U go 1-4 this year. The Giants have seen the O/U go 2-3, but with both "overs" occurring on the road. With nothing to lose, I believe the visitors push the pace from start to finish; play the over! |
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10-10-19 | Syracuse v. NC State OVER 57 | Top | 10-16 | Loss | -107 | 60 h 59 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK is on the over Syracuse/NC State. From both a "situational" stand point and also when looking at it from a trend based angle, I believe this one definitely sets up as a "shootout," rather than a low-scoring battle. Both teams are 3-2, but 0-1 in ACC play. Both teams also come out of their bye-weeks. The Orange offense is firing on all cylinders with QB Tommy DeVito, who already has 1,230 passing yards and 11 TD's (eight in his last two games.) The Orange defense has forced 12 turnovers, but it's still middle of the road. NC State is desperate as it turns to a new QB today in Bailey Hockman. The WolfPack have injuries on both sides of the ball, so the bye week could not have come at a better time for NC State. This is a big Conference game and I'm expecting a shootout on Prime Time. Key Trends: - Syracuse has seen the total eclipse the posted number in its last three as a road dog of seven points or less. - NC State has seen the total go over the number in six of eight this year as a favorite in the 3.5 to ten points range. The verdict: I believe the stage is set for a sprint from start to finish; play the over! |
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10-10-19 | Rays v. Astros UNDER 7 | Top | 1-6 | Push | 0 | 34 h 24 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL SUPER-BLOWOUT is on the under Rays/Astros. I think we have a classic "duel" on our hands here. Both starters enter on top form and I expect that to translate into a lower-scoring battle in this pivotal Game 5 ALDS contest. The visitors see Tyler Glasnow toe the slab, and he's 6-1 with a 1.78 ERA and 0.89 WHIP this year. Glasnow is 1-1 with a 2.89 ERA with four walks and 11 K's over 9.1 innings spanning two career starts vs. the Astros. The home side counters with Gerrit Cole, who was 20-5 with a 2.50 ERA and 0.895 WHIP this year. He already beat the Rays in Game 2, going 7.2 innings of scoreless work. Cole is 21-4 with a 2.70 ERA with 48 walks and 330 K's over 33 career starts at Minute Maid Park. Key Trends: - Tampa has interestingly seen the total go under the number in seven of its last ten when the total in the contest is set at seven or less. - Houston has seen the total go under in 14 of 21 when playing with double revenge after two straight losses vs. an opponent this season. The verdict: Expect these starting pitchers to be the main story lines in tomorrow's summaries; play the under! |
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10-10-19 | Oilers v. Devils UNDER 6.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 28 h 18 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL BIG TIGER is on the under Oilers/Devils. New Jersey comes in off another loss just last night in Philadelphia (I had the Devils in that one unfortunately.) The Oilers are 3-0 to open the season and they'll be looking to keep the good times rolling vs. the New Jersey team which enters with "heavy legs" after last night's contest and which is clearly struggling to find the back of the net to open the year. Mike Smith gets the call in net for the viistors and he was 23-16-2 with a 2.72 GAA last year. The Devils had the 26th ranked offense last year, which averaged only 2.67 goals per game. New Jersey so far looks even worse on the offensive end this season. Key Trends: - Edmonton has seen the total go under in seven of its last ten after a three-games unbeaten streak. - New Jersey has seen the total dip under in 27 of its last 37 home games when the total is six or more. The verdict: I expect a hard-hitting, low-scoring goaltenders battle between these two hungry non-conference teams; play the under! |
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10-09-19 | Nationals v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -120 | 36 h 38 m | Show |
My 10* PLAYOFF TOTAL OF THE YEAR is the under Nats/Dodgers. Washington forced a decisive Game 5 by taking Game 4 by a score of 6-1. I think this one has "duel" written all over it as well. Both starting pitchers come in red hot and it's the entire reason why I'm making a play of this size. Stephen Strasburg (18-6, 3.32 ERA) toes the slab for the visitors, while the home side counters with Walker Buehler (14-4, 3.26). Key Trends: - Strasburg is 8-4 with a 3.39 ERA in 19 starts on the road. He's 2-0 with a 0.95 ERA over his last three starts overall. He's 3-2 with a 0.64 ERA in five postseason starts in his career. - Buehler is 6-1 with a 2.86 ERA in 14 starts at honme this season and he's 2-1 with a 3.18 ERA in his last three trips to the hill overall. He's 1-1 with a 3.03 ERA in five career postseason starts. The verdict: With these two "studs" battling deep, expect this total to stay WELL below the posted number; play the under! |
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10-08-19 | Kings v. Flames OVER 5.5 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 28 h 14 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL BEST OF THE BEST is on the over Kings/Flames. The Kings are 0-1 and the Flames are 1-1. Both clubs are out for a big victory tonight and I believe this faster-paced contest is going to lead to a higher-scoring affair. LA won't be lacking for motivation as it's lost six of the last nine in this series. Note that LA enters off a 6-5 loss to Edmonton, so offense isn't a problem for the visitors, but clearly the defense is now a work in progress. Last year Calgary had the second best offense in the NHL last year, averaging 3.53 goals per game. Key Trends: - LA has seen the total go over the number in 17 of its last 27 when playing with two days rest. - Calgary has seen the total soar over the number in five of its last six after shutting out its opponent in its previous outing (3-0 over the Canucks.) The verdict: The situation and the numbers/trends both point to the over as the correct move here! |
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10-07-19 | Yankees v. Twins UNDER 9 | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 36 h 39 m | Show |
My10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK is on the under Yanks/Twins. With their backs against the wall, the Twins fight for their lives at home vs. the mighty Yanks. New York's offense was one of the best all year, but it actually entered the postseason in a bit of a slump. New York is up 2-0 in this series thanks in part to some timely pitching and some suddenly hot bats. But I think that Twins' starter Jake Odorizzi (15-7, 3.51 ERA) can go deep into this one opposite his counterpart Luis Severino (1-1, 1.50). Severino is 19-13 with a 3.38 ERA in 51 career road games. Odorrizzi is 7-3 with a 3.42 ERA in Minnesota lifetime. Key Trends: - New York has seen the total go under the number in nine of its last 12 after two straight wins by four runs or more. - Minnesota has seen the total dip below the posted number in four of its last five after allowing seven runs or more in two straight games. The verdict: I look for these two dominant starters to fight into the latter frames; play the under! |
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10-07-19 | Browns v. 49ers OVER 46.5 | Top | 3-31 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 34 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE is on the OVER Browns/49ers Cleveland started off the year with a blowout loss at home to the Titans. The Browns offense was out of sync and it had to play from behind the whole game. They also committed well over 100 yards in penalties. Last week Baker Mayfield and company destroyed the Ravens 40-25 though and now the Browns' offense is starting to fire on all cylinders. RB Nick Chubb had three rushing TD's and Mayfield had over 350 yards passing. The 49ers enter at 3-0 after having last week off. Previous to that they destroyed the Steelers at home. Jimmy Garoppolo and the San Fran offense is also firing on all cylinders. From a situational stand point, I do absolutely believe that this one sets up as a high-scoring "shootout." Key Trends: - Cleveland has seen the total go over the number in three of its last four off an upset win as an underdog. - San Francisco has seen the total soar over in four of its last five as a home favorite of seven points or less. The verdict: I do expect these two young QB's to push the pace from start to finish. This is a big game for both teams and I'm expecting a classic "shootout" on PRIME TIME! |
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10-06-19 | Jets v. Islanders UNDER 6 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 28 h 44 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL BIG TIGER is on the under Jets/Isles. The Jets are 1-1, falling 5-4 to the Rangers, before then coming from behind to knock off the Devils 6-5 in a shootout. The Isles are 0-1 after they lost 2-1 at home to the Capitals in their opener. New York was the stingiest team in the league last year and now they have Thomas Greiss between the pipes this evening; note that he was 23-14-2 last year with a 2.28 GAA. The verdict: Off two straight high-scoring affairs, the Jets now have to deal with the slogging pace of the Islanders, who will look to control the pace of this one and grind out their first win of the season; this one has under written all over it! |
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10-06-19 | Patriots v. Redskins OVER 43.5 | Top | 33-7 | Loss | -107 | 118 h 49 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH is on the over Pats/Skins. Yes New England has the best defense in the league. Statistically speaking anyways. The Patriots haven’t been truly tested by a great offense yet this year though and once again they won’t be this weekend either. That said, the 0-4 Redskins have nothing to lose here and will be given the green light to open up the offense from start to finish. This will of course give ample opportunity for this talented and opportunistic Pats’ defense to score as well. Washington has been poor on both sides of the ball this year, but especially defensively. Note that the Redskins’ defense ranks last in the NFL in third-down conversion prevention. Also note that Washington’s best player Josh Norman is questionable for this one. Key Trends: - NE has seen the total go over the number in four of its last five after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games. - Washington has seen the total go over the number in four of its last five after failing to cover the spread in three out of its last four games. The verdict: Colt McCoy broke his leg on the first play of the National Championship game while he was in College. The Texas alum will be looking to break a leg here as well as he tries to pull of the monumental upset. Tom Brady continues to shine for the Patriots and I expect the veteran to take full advantage of this suspect Skins’ secondary. When you add it all up, this one has high-scoring shootout written all over it; play the over! |
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10-06-19 | Bills v. Titans OVER 38.5 | 14-7 | Loss | -109 | 116 h 15 m | Show | |
My 8* play on the Bills/Titans over. The Bills are 3-1 and the Titans are 2-2. The Bills have been tremendous defensively so far to open the season, but after last week’s tight 16-10 loss at home to the Patriots, I think the visitors finally start to try and open things up on the offensive side of the ball. The Titans come in with plenty of momentum here as they now look to build off their impressive 24-10 road win over the Falcons. The Bills lost QB Josh Allen last week to a concussion, so Matt Barkley will be out their slinging the ball for the visitors today. RB Frank Gore was a bright spot for the Bills last week with 109 rushing yards on 17 attempts. Titans’ QB Marcus Mariota had 227 yards passing and three TD’s last week and RB Derrick Henry had 100 rushing yards. I believe Tennessee will definitely build off its last impressive offensive performance. Key Trends: - Buffalo has seen the total go over the number in three of its last four after a loss by six points or less. - Tennessee has seen the total go over the number in three of its last four after a two game road trip. The verdict: Barkley and the Bills need to make something happen and the Titans are now firing on all cylinders. When you add up all the above information, everything points to the over as the savvy call in my opinion; play the over! |
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10-05-19 | San Diego State v. Colorado State OVER 51.5 | Top | 24-10 | Loss | -109 | 102 h 31 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL BIG TIGER is on the OVER SDSU/Colorado State. SDSU is 3-1 and Colorado State is 1-4. The Aztecs enter focused and hungry after suffering their first loss of the season last week, falling against Utah State. Colorado State’s season lies in the balance after three straight losses. This team needs to start winning immediately, as another loss will be the nail in the coffin for any bowl aspirations. The Aztecs have been impressive defensively early, but I think the team opens up the playbook today as it looks to jump-start an offense which is averaging only 19 PPG. The Rams are averaging 32 PPG, led by QB Collin Hill, who has 837 passing yards and eight TD’s. Defensively though the Rams are conceding 40 PPG. Key Trends: - SDSU has seen the total go over the number in three of its last six vs. teams with losing records. - CSU has seen the total soar over in three of its last four as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range. The verdict: SDSU has the perfect opponent today to get its offense untracked. The home side has nothing to lose and I expect it to push the pace from start to finish. This number is a little low, play the over! |
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10-05-19 | Red Wings v. Predators OVER 5.5 | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 26 h 55 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL BIG TIGER is on the over Wings/Predators. Key Trends: Analysis posted shortly. |
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10-04-19 | Central Florida v. Cincinnati UNDER 60.5 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 98 h 27 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER UCF/Cincinnati. UCF is 4-1, while Cincinnati is 3-1. The Knights are already 1-0 in Conference play, but this is the Bearcats vs. league game. After last week’s 56-21 home smoke job of UConn, I think the high-powered visiting side plays a bit more conservatively in this difficult AAC road venue. Cincinnati returns home after smashing Marshall 52-14 last week. While each sides’ opponent featured a weak defense last weekend, that’s not the case this Friday night, as note that the Bearcats allow only 130.6 rushing yards and 167 passing yards per game and they’ve already posted ten sacks and two INT’s (an average of only 20.8 PPG). UCF concedes just 324.8 total YPG and it’s recorded 11 sacks, four INT’s and one pick six. Key Trends: - UCF has seen the total go under the number in six of its last seven off a home blowout win by 28 points or more - Cincinnati has seen the total dip under in nine of its last 13 as an underdog. The verdict: Yes it’s true that both sides can score at a prodigious rate, but I think it’s the under-rated and under the radar defensive units which will ultimately be the main story line’s in tomorrow’s summaries; play the under! |
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10-03-19 | Flames v. Avalanche UNDER 6 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 35 h 29 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK is on the under Flames/Avs. This is going to be a competitive affair and because of that, I’m expecting a lower-scoring contest once it’s all said and done. Colorado surprised the Flames in the opener of last year’s playoffs, winning in five games. The Avs then lost in seven games to the Sharks in the conference semis. Calgary welcomes back David Rittich between the pipes and last year he was 27-9-5 with a 2.61 GAA. Last year he beat the Avs both times, allowing 2.49 goals per game. The Flames allowed just 2.72 GPG last year, while the Avs allowed 2.98. Avs’ net minder Philipp Grubauer was 18-9-5 with a 2.64 GAA last year. The verdict: I think the stage is set for a more of a grind it out defensive affair, rather than a wide-open “shootout.” Play the under! |
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10-03-19 | Cardinals v. Braves UNDER 8.5 | Top | 7-6 | Loss | -100 | 32 h 33 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL BIG TIGER on the under Cards/Braves. This should be an interesting series. This is also an interesting matchup on the mound to open this series, as neither Miles Mikolas nor Dallas Keuchel has had a great season and neither enters in good form. The winner of this series could very well hinge upon which of these two starters can regroup the quickest. Both teams have plenty of starting talent, but overall Mikolas and Keuchel have been huge disappointments. Each though has plenty of experience and both will be highly motivated. And I think this does indeed set up nicely from a situational stand point to be a classic “duel” to open this series. Key Trends: - Mikolas is in fact 2-1 with a 3.03 ERA over his last six starts, striking out 35 in his last 35 2/3’s innings of work. - Keuchel is 5-3 with a 2.87 ERA over his last eight starts, but enters having lost three in a row. The verdict: I think these two hungry starters fight deep into the latter frames, which is going to help in keeping this total well under the number; play the under! |
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10-01-19 | Brewers v. Nationals OVER 7.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -113 | 35 h 49 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH is on the OVER Brewers/Nationals. Both Brandon Woodruff and Max Scherzer are coming off victories to end the year and each has put together a fine campaign. But I think that the extra time off between starts for Scherzer (an entire week), will actually be a detriment here as I believe he comes out flat to start. The Brewers are without some key offensive players in the line-up today, but Milwaukee was the hottest team in the league down the stretch and I think that momentum gets carried over here. Washington hasn’t won a playoff game in 38 years. I’m expecting a fight from start to finish in this one. Key Trends: - Milwaukee has seen the total go over the number in 11 of its last 16 when playing with a day off. - Washington has seen the total go over the number in 14 of 22 already this season at home when the total is set between 7.5 and 8.5. The verdict: "We're going into a hostile environment, playing against a hot team with one of the best pitchers in the league," Milwaukee left fielder Ryan Braun told reporters. "Certainly, it will be a challenge, but we've had our backs against the wall all month. We've been counted out many times. We kind of like being in that position." With neither side backing down, I look for this total to sneak over this number in the latter frames; play the over! |
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09-29-19 | Vikings v. Bears OVER 38 | Top | 6-16 | Loss | -110 | 124 h 38 m | Show |
My 10* play is on the over Vikes/Bears. Two hungry division rivals collide on Saturday afternoon and I think that points are going to be plentiful. Chicago is 2-1 and the Vikes are 1-2. Both division rivals are equally as “hungry” for a victory here and I think it’s that sense of enormous focus and competition which will ultimately help in pushing this total above this very low number. Key Trends: - Minnesota is averaging 193.7 rushing yards per game, which is second in the league. - Chicago’s offense finally got untracked last week in the 31-15 road victory in the nation’s capital. The verdict: I think the Bears’ offense continues to progress and I believe the Vikes are going to be forced to match the pace of the home side tonight. This one has “shootout” written all over it in my opinion; play the over! |
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09-29-19 | Jaguars v. Broncos UNDER 39 | 26-24 | Loss | -110 | 124 h 37 m | Show | |
My 8* play on the under Jags/Broncos. Both teams have struggled with adversity early, both on and off the field. Denver’s vaunted defense has been terrible so far this season under the defensive minded head coach Vic Fangio, as it’s produced zero sacks and zero forced fumbles over the first three weeks. Clearly this lop-sided trend isn’t going to last forever and I think a big defensive performance is definitely in the cards now vs. the offensively challenged Jaguars. Gardner Minshew picked up a victory for Jacksonville vs. the sputtering Titans last week, but I think the rookie will have his hands full tonight in this difficult road venue. The Broncos offense has been just as bad, which doesn’t bode well facing this stacked Jaguars defense. Key Trends: The Jags have seen the total go under the number in eight of their last 11 on the road. - The Broncos have seen the total go under the number in 12 of their last 18 as a favorite. The verdict: Expect a tough battle until the end and for this total to stay well below the posted number! |
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09-29-19 | Browns v. Ravens UNDER 47 | 40-25 | Loss | -120 | 120 h 14 m | Show | |
My 8* play on the under Browns/Ravens. Cleveland’s offense has been out of sync all season. Baker Mayfield and company have struggled for the most part this season. That’s not about to get any easier vs. this tough division rival (they split two games last year.) Baltimore is allowing only 20 PPG. The Browns’ though have been getting solid production on the defensive side of the field as well, conceding just 22 PPG. Key Trends: - Cleveland has seen the total go under in 17 of its last 27 as an underdog. - Baltimore has seen the total go under in 13 of its last 21 as a favorite. The verdict: The last thing the Browns can do is try to turn this into a “shootout” and expect to hang with the high-flying Ravens. Baltimore faces a stiff defensive task here today though and when you add it all up, I think this one does indeed have “defensive battle” written all over it; play the under! |
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09-28-19 | Virginia v. Notre Dame OVER 49.5 | 20-35 | Win | 100 | 98 h 1 m | Show | |
My 9* TOP TOTAL is on the over Virginia/ND. No. 18 Virginia is 4-0, while No. 10 Notre Dame is 2-1. The Cavs come to town off a 28-17 home win over ODU, while the Irish will be eager to return to form here after their tough 23-17 road loss to No. 3 Georgia. Virginia’s defense already has 20 sacks this season, but it was flagged seven times for 70 yards in penalties in its most recent victory over the Monarchs. The Irish though are an entirely different “animal,” especially at home. Notre Dame allows only 361.7 YPG, which breaks down to 204 rushing and 157.3 passing yards per game. UVA likes to throw the ball as well, as QB Bryce Perkins has 843 passing yards, six TD’s and four INT’s. ND QB Ian Book had 275 yards and a pair of TD’s in last week’s loss to the Bulldogs. These are two competent QB’s and I expect a battle. These are also two teams hungry for a victory here, so the overall situation definitely lends itself more to a “shootout” than a “chess match” in my opinion. Key Trends: - Virginia has seen the total go over the number in four of its last five following a two-game home stand. - ND has seen the total eclipse the posted number in six of its last eight after playing its last game on the road. The verdict: Expect these two teams to fight tooth and nail and look for this total to soar over sooner, rather than later! |
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09-28-19 | Northwestern v. Wisconsin OVER 46 | Top | 15-24 | Loss | -109 | 95 h 32 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL BIG TIGER is on the over Northwestern/Wisconsin. Northwestern is hungry here sitting at 1-2 and it knows it’ll have its hands full trying to hang with 3-0 Wisconsin. Northwestern was humbled by Michigan State last week, but it’ll have to keep the foot on the gas if it has any hope to keep up with surging Wisconsin, which just upset Michigan last week. Hunter Johnson has struggled under center for the Wildcats and his ineptitude has put added pressure on an already overtaxed Wildcats defense. And that’s bad news facing the Badgers, who won their first two games by a combined score of 110-0. Key Trends: - Northwestern has seen the total go over the number in seven of its last nine on the road. - The Wildcats have seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of their last 12 as a dog. - The Badgers have seen the total go over the number in eight of their last ten when the total in the contest is set between 42.5 and 49 points. The verdict: I expect a wide-open affair from start to finish; this number is a little low, play the over! |
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09-27-19 | Astros v. Angels OVER 10 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -120 | 32 h 44 m | Show |
My 10* TOAL BLOOD-BATH is on the over Astros/Angels. I think these suspect starting pitchers get the hook early and as a result, I believe this total is going to fly over the number sooner, rather than later. Houston sees Jose Urquidy (1-1, 4.63 ERA) toe the slab and he’s faced the Angels twice this year, including a start in July in which he conceded five runs off eight hits over two innings. Urquidy will be opposed by the erratic Patrick Sandoval (0-3, 5.25) who gae up three runs over three innings in his lone start vs. the Astros this season. Key Trends: - The Astros have seen the total go over the number in 13 of its last 21 on the road when the total is set between 9 and 10.5. - The Angels have seen the total go over the number in 11 of their last 17 home games when the total is between 9 and 10.5. The verdict: Look for these two confirmed “gas cans” to get the hook early and as mentioned off the top, then look for this total to fly over the posted number sooner, rather than later! |
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09-27-19 | Penn State v. Maryland UNDER 60.5 | Top | 59-0 | Win | 100 | 84 h 10 m | Show |
My 10* play on the under Penn State/Maryland. I think Penn State comes out a bit flat to open after its bye week and because of that, I look for this total to sneak below the number once it’s all said and done. Back on Sept. 14th the Nittany Lions escaped a low-scoring 17-10 battle with Pitt and while this one might produce a bit more offense, I’m not expecting by much. And that’s because Maryland ALSO comes out of its bye week and it’s looking to rebound though after it fell 20-17 to Temple. The home side will also be out to avenge a 38-3 loss to the Nittany Lions last year. When I make my pick on a total (in all sports), I like to look at the overall “situation” that each team finds itself in coming into that contest and in my opinion, from a situational stand point I believe this one definitely sets up as more of a “chess match,” than a wide-open shootout. Key Trends: - Penn State has seen the total go under the number in nine of its last 14 vs. the conference. - Maryland has seen the total dip below the posted number in three of its last four as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range. The verdict: Penn State contained Maryland’ RB Anthony McFarland Jr. last season and I predict a duplicate performance here as well. This number is just a shade high, play the under! |
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09-27-19 | San Jose State v. Air Force UNDER 56.5 | 24-41 | Loss | -110 | 84 h 10 m | Show | |
My 8* play on the under San Jose State/Air Force. Air Force comes in off a loss, while San Jose State comes in off a win. The Spartans upset Arkansas 31-24 last week and an immediate return to mediocrity appears imminent to me as San Jose plays its second straight on the road. The Falcons on the other hand fell 30-19 at Boise State last Friday. Overall Air Force only posted 242 rushing yards, which was 100 under its season average entering that contest. Last week the Spartans held the Razorbacks to 131 yards on 32 carries with no TD’s, so this is going to be an interesting “chess match” in my opinion. Key Trends: - San Jose State has seen the total go under the number in nine of its last 14 as a road dog. - Air Force has seen the total go under the number in three of its last four following a two-game road trip. The verdict: As a situational handicapper, I think this one definitely sets up as a lower-scoring “under!” |
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09-26-19 | Eagles v. Packers OVER 46 | Top | 34-27 | Win | 100 | 84 h 5 m | Show |
My 10* NFL TOTAL OF THE YEAR is on the over Eagles/Packers. So far every Thursday night NFL game has fallen well below the posted number. That includes on Opening Night as well when the Packers played. But I believe that trend finally changes this week, as I believe the desperate 1-2 Philadelphia Eagles will be out to push the pace from start to finish. Yes Green Bay’s defense has been fantastic to this point (allowing just 11.7 PPG thus far) and yes the Eagles have injuries on the offensive side of the ball, but I still don’t think that’s going to matter. Philadelphia’s season is on the line tonight and I expect Carson Wentz to open things up early and often. Of course, Green Bay has also looked fantastic on the offensive side of the ball this year and I think it’s balanced attack is going to run roughshod over this suspect Eagles’ defense. Key Trends: - Philly has seen the total go over the number in five of its last six road game when the total is between 45.5 and 49 points. - Green Bay has seen the total go over the number in three of its last four off a home victory by ten points or more. The verdict: Green Bay is desperate to move to 4-0 and the Eagles are desperate to avoid a 1-3 hole. This one has “shootout” written all over it! |
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09-26-19 | Navy v. Memphis OVER 55 | Top | 23-35 | Win | 100 | 60 h 23 m | Show |
My 10* NCAAF TOTAL OF THE WEEK is on the over Navy/Memphis. After scuffling the last couple of season, the Midshipmen are out to prove the doubters wrong this year. Navy is averaging nearly 380 yards per game on the ground and while the defense has looked good early, that’s mainly due to the level of competition. Memphis has also looked good on the defensive side of things, but once again that’s been because of early competition in my opinion. Now that AAC play is here, I think these defensive units have a much more difficult time. Each has looked good on the offensive end in the early going and there’s no reason not to think that won’t carry over in my opinion either. Key Trends: - Navy has seen the total go over the number in 13 of 19 this year as an underdog in the 10.5 to 21 points range. - Memphis has seen the total go over the number in 11 of its last 16 at home. - The Tigers have seen the total soar over in four of their last five off a road victory. The verdict: A great situational play as I’m expecting a wide-open affair from start to finish; play the over! |
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09-25-19 | Astros v. Mariners UNDER 9 | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 32 h 57 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL CLASH-OF-THE-TITANS is on the UNDER Astros/M’s. I think that runs will be at a premium in this one, due mainly to the fact that I have a hard time seeing the home side mustering much of an offensive attack vs. the Astros Zack Greinke (17-5, 3.05 ERA). Greinke is 7-1 with a 3.48 ERA since coming over from Arizona and he’s 6-1 with a 2.05 ERA in 13 career appearances vs. the M’s. Key Trends: - Houston has seen the total dip under in 15 of 24 already this season on the road when the total is either 9 or 9.5. - Seattle has seen the total go under the number in 12 of its last 20 as a home dog of +125 or higher. The verdict: The Astros won 3-0 in yesterday’s series opener and everything points to a similar final outcome here as well in my opinion. As stated off the top, based entirely on the recent form of Greinke and his long-term dominance he’s had vs. the M’s, I’m playing the under! |
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09-24-19 | Twins v. Tigers UNDER 9.5 | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 29 h 41 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK is on the under Twins/Tigers. I have a hard time seeing the anemic Tigers mustering much of an offensive attack today vs. Twins starter Jake Odorizzi (14-7, 3.59 ERA). The home side sees Spencer Turnbull (3-15, 4.66) toe the slab. Odorizzi most recently allowed two runs over six innings in an unfortunate 3-1 loss to the White Sox (note that in 11 career starts he’s 5-1 with a 3.05 ERA vs. the Tigers.) Turnbull earned a no-decision vs. the Tribe in his last start despite allowing only one run over five frames of work. Key Trends: - Minnesota has seen the total go under the number in three of its last four after allowing seven runs or more over two straight games. - Detroit has seen the total dip below the posted number in 17 of its last 27 at home when the total in the contest is set at either 9 or 9.5. The verdict: I think these starters battle deep, which will in turn help in keeping this total under the number; play the under! |
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09-23-19 | Marlins v. Mets OVER 8 | Top | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 27 h 22 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL BIG TIGER is on the OVER Marlins/Mets. The Mets’ wildcard hopes are dwindling, but they can only play one game at a time. This is a favorable matchup to open the new week obviously. The Marlins won’t be rolling over here as they’ll be looking to play spoiler. The visitors go with Caleb Smith (9-10, 4.24 ERA), while the home side counters with Steven Matz (10-9, 4.16.) Matz was crushed in his most recent outing, allowing seven runs over four innings in a 9-4 loss to the Rockies. Smith earned a victory his last time out despite not being at his best, allowing four runs over five frames in his team’s eventual 12-6 win over the D-Backs. Key Trends: - Miami has seen the total go over the number in 23 of its last 33 vs. southpaws. - New York has seen the total go over the number in 40 of 63 vs. division opponents this season. The verdict: I think these suspect starters get chased early; play the over! |
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09-22-19 | Broncos v. Packers OVER 42.5 | Top | 16-27 | Win | 100 | 71 h 17 m | Show |
My 10* play is on the OVER Broncos/Packers. From a situational stand point, I think this one sets up beautifully as a higher-scoring “shootout.” Denver is 0-2 and it’s defense has looked suspect. The offense has struggled as well. Joe Flacco and company won’t be holding anything back here though as they try to salvage their season and avoid the dreaded 0-3 hole to open the season (no team in NFL history has won the Super Bowl after starting 0-3.) Green Bay has looked impressive on the defensive side of the ball during its 2-0 start, but I think the unit gets tested today by this now desperate Broncos team. Meanwhile, Aaron Rodgers and company appear to be firing on all cylinders offensively early as well. As stated off the top, from a situational stand point, this one has high-scoring shootout written all over it. Key Trends: - Denver has seen the total go over the number in three of its last four after scoring 14 points or less in its last game. - GB has seen the total soar over in its last four home games as a favorite in the 3.5 to 7 points range. The verdict: Expect a wide open affair from start to finish in this one; play the over! |
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09-22-19 | Falcons v. Colts UNDER 47 | 24-27 | Loss | -102 | 71 h 17 m | Show | |
My 8* play on the under Falcons/Colts. It’s a big game for both teams, who enter at 1-1. The Colts have looked decent with Jacoby Brissett under center and he’s been leaning heavily on RB Marlon Mack, who already has 225 rushing yards. The Falcons bounced back last week with an impressive 24-20 defensive victory over the Eagles. So far the Falcons ground game has stalled, so we can expect the visitors to be trying to establish that early and often in this one. And that’s exactly what I’m expecting from both of these non-conference sides today as each looks to control the tempo and limit mistakes. Key Trends: - Atlanta has seen the total go under the number in 12 of its last 19 on the road. - The Falcons have the total dip under the number in 11 of their last 17 when the total in the contest is set between 42.5 and 49 points. - Indianapolis has seen the total go under the number in ten of its last 16 at home. - The Colts have seen the total dip below the posted number in ten of their last 12 following a divisional contest. The verdict: This one has the feel of a “chess match.” Play the under! |
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09-22-19 | Jets v. Patriots OVER 43.5 | 14-30 | Win | 100 | 71 h 16 m | Show | |
My 8* play on the over Jets/Patriots. It’s do or die for the Jets, as an 0-3 start would be the end of their Super Bowl hopes, and likely a shot at the playoffs as well. New England would love nothing more than to put the final nail in the coffin with a big beatdown victory as well in my opinion. When you add it all up, I think this number is much too low. New York will throw caution to the wind obviously as it’s down to its third string QB, so expect Luke Falk to be given the green light to air this one out early and often. This works both ways of course, as the Pats’ defense is extremely adept at putting points on the board as well. Look for Tom Brady and company to put on a clinic as well in front of the home town crowd. Key Trends: - The Jets have seen the total soar over in five of their last six after scoring 17 points or less in two straight games. - The Patriots have seen the total go over the number in four of their last five after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games. The verdict: I truly feel this one has a legitimate shot at going over the number by half time; play the over! |
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09-21-19 | Colorado v. Arizona State OVER 48.5 | Top | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 57 h 38 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE is on the OVER Colorado/ASU. Both teams are hungry for a victory and I believe each is going to push the pace from start to finish. ASU is fresh of a monumental upset for the Spartans and it has to be feeling confident here as well as the last time these team’s met in Tempe, ASU picked up the 41-30 victory. That said, Colorado posted the seven point victory in this matchup last year at home, with three passing TD’s from its QB Steven Montez. Colorado won’t be lacking for motivation here either after coming up short to Air Force last time out. From a situational stand point, I absolutely believe that this one sets up as a high-scoring “shootout,” rather than a low-scoring “chess match.” Key Trends: - Colorado has seen the total go over the number in 12 of its last 15 off an upset loss as a home favorite. - ASU has seen the total eclipse the posted number in 11 of its last 17 off an upset win as a road underdog. The verdict: The opener of Pac 12 play for both and I expect some fireworks; play the over! |
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09-20-19 | Air Force v. Boise State OVER 55 | Top | 19-30 | Loss | -109 | 82 h 55 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK is on the over Air Force/Boise State. These are two teams “firing on all cylinders” to open the season and I look for that momentum to translate into offensive production on the field of play this evening. Both teams are undefeated with victories over Power 5 programs already on their resumes. These are two very productive offenses, but each gets the job done differently. The Broncos are going to have a hard time slowing down the Falcons’ rushing attack, which ranks second in the country at 353.5 YPG (it has 22 runs of ten or more yards.) Boise State QB Hank Bachmeier has a stiff task tonight facing this revamped Air Force defense, but he has a pair of solid backs in Robert Mahone and George Holani to keep the visitors honest. I see both sides pushing the pace and from a situational stand point, there’s no question that this one sets up as more of a high-scoring “shootout,” than a low-scoring “chess-match.” Key Trends: - The Falcons have seen the total eclipse the posted number in five of their last six as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range. - The Broncos have seen the total go over the number in six of their last eight off a SU home victory. The verdict: As mentioned off the top, I expect a wide open pace from start to finish; play the over! |
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09-20-19 | Phillies v. Indians UNDER 8.5 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 101 | 27 h 6 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL CLASH OF THE TITANS is on the under Phillies/Indians. The Phillies playoff hopes are on the line and the Indians are still vying for position. For a number of different reasons, I believe that the opener of this interleague contest will fall under the number once it’s all said and done. The visitors go with Drew Smyly (4-6, 6.22 ERA), while the home side sees Shane Bieber (14-7, 3.26) toe the slab. The Phillies offense lost Jean Segura to injury in yesterday’s 5-4 setback to the Braves. But while Smyly’s overall record isn’t anything to write home about, the Phillies have to be feeling decent about a bounce back here as Smyly has been sharp since coming over to his new team, going 3-1 with a 4.14 ERA since the All Star break. Bieber has been a steady bright spot for the Tribe all year and I expect him to go deep as well. Key Trends: - Philly has seen the total go under in three of four already this year as a road dog in the +175 to +250 range. - The Indians have seen the total go under the number in 21 of 34 at home when the total in the contest is set between 9 and 9.5. The verdict: I think these starters battle deep; play the under! |
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09-18-19 | Phillies v. Braves UNDER 10 | Top | 4-1 | Win | 103 | 27 h 58 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL BIG TIGER is on the under Phillies/Braves. Considering the circumstances, I think this number is a little high. The visitors hand the ball to Zach Eflin (8-12, 4.20 ERA), while the home side counters with Julio Teheran (10-9, 3.50). Eflin has admittedly struggled vs. ATL this year, going 0-3 with an 11.57 ERA. But I’m of the belief that such unbelievably lop-sided trends/numbers have a way of naturally “correcting” themselves, even over the short-term. Note though that in six career starts, Eflin is now 2-3 with a 4.45 ERA (and he’s conceded only four runs over 23 frames worked in Atlanta.) Same thing for Teheran funnily enough, as he’s 0-2 with an 8.00 ERA in two starts vs. Philadelphia. But like his counterpart today, overall Teheran has fared well vs. the PHillies throughout his career, going 9-8 with a 3.92 ERA in 25 appearances. Key Trends: - Philly has seen the total go under the number in 30 of 50 as an underdog this season. - ATL has seen the total dip under in 21 of its last 34 vs. teams with winning records. The verdict: Look for these two hungry starters to be the main story lines in tomorrow’s summaries; play the under! |
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09-17-19 | Marlins v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8.5 | Top | 12-6 | Loss | -105 | 29 h 10 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the under Marlins/D-Backs. A couple of capable hurlers go head-to-head in this one and in my opinion, runs are definitely going to be at a premium after yesterday’s 7-5 win by the D-Backs. The visitors go with Caleb Smith (8-10, 4.13 ERA), while the home side counters with Alex Young (7-4, 3.38). Smith already has 160 K’s over 139 1/3’s innings of work this season, while rookie Young has 61 K’s over 69 1/3’s innings. Key Trends: - Miami has seen the total go under the number in 20 of 29 this year as a road dog in the +150 to +200 range. - Arizona has seen the total dip under the number in nine of 14 this year as a home favorite in the -150 to -200 range. The verdict: Look for these two hungry starters to battle deep into the latter frames and for this total to stay well under once it’s all said and done! |
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09-16-19 | Mets v. Rockies OVER 13.5 | Top | 4-9 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 1 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* TOTAL ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE on the over Mets/Rockies. For a number of different reasons, I look for this total to fly over the number sooner, rather than later. The visitors hand the ball to Steven Matz (10-8, 3.84 ERA), while the home side goes with Antonio Senzatela (9-10, 6.87). This is a big series for the Mets following a tough 3-2 loss to the Dodgers last night. The verdict: Matz has been awesome in The Big Apple by going 7-1 with a 1.94 ERA, but he’s a terrible 3-7 with a 6.08 ERA on the road. Clearly that doesn’t bode well for the southpaw playing in the thin air of Coors Field tonight. Senzatela has had success vs. the Mets in his career, but he owns a terrible 6.79 ERA at home this year. Taking into account the suspect starting pitching, as stated off the top, all signs point to this one flying over the number early! |
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09-16-19 | Browns v. Jets UNDER 45 | Top | 23-3 | Win | 100 | 34 h 49 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the under Browns/Jets. Cleveland played terribly in Week 1. It’s first drive of the game looked brilliant, but then a penalty cost it a TD and the Browns settled for the FG to open things up. And after that it was all downhill, as several penalties resulted in 187 yards lost. At that point, Baker Mayfield and company were forced to play from behind and the dynamic back threw three picks. I don’t think that the Titans offense is as good as it looked in Week 1 and I don’t think that the Browns defense is as bad as it looked either. What we do know is that the Jets blew a 16 point lead late to the Bills and lost in Week 1. They also lost starting QB Sam Darnold to mono. These are two teams looking to limit mistakes and control the tempo. From a situational stand point, I absolutely believe that this one sets up as a lower-scoring battle. Key Trends: - Cleveland has seen the total go under in its last four after allowing 35 points or more in its previous outing. - New York has seen the total go under in its last two off an upset loss to a division rival as a home favorite. The verdict: For all the reasons listed above, I expect this one to stay well below the posted number; play the under! |
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09-15-19 | Braves v. Nationals OVER 10 | Top | 0-7 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 17 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL BIG TIGER is on the over Braves/Nationals. The Braves won 10-1 yesterday and with the victory they’ve punched a ticket to the post-season. Atlanta though has its eyes on a bigger prize and it won’t be taking the foot off the gas today as it looks to still run down the best overall record in the NL. The Nationals though are looking to avoid the series sweep and back into the win column themselves. Max Fried (16-5, 4.02 ERA) and Anibal Sanchez (8-8, 4.04) have both been better than advertised for their clubs this year, but the overall situation lends itself to another high-scoring slug-fest in my opinion. Note the Fried was destroyed in his last start, getting rocked for five runs off seven hits over five innings vs. the Phillies (while 8-2 on the road, the beneficiary of the Braves’ explosive offense, note that Fried only has a 4.91 ERA on the road.) And unfortunately for Sanchez, he’s been better on the road (6-6, 3.36 ERA) this season, than at home (2-2, 4.96). Key Trends: - Atlanta has seen the total go over the number in all three of its games this year in which it enters off a victory of eight runs or more vs. a division rival. - Washington has seen the total go over the number in three of four this season after scoring two runs or less in two straight games. The verdict: I believe the starters get chased early and as a result, I look for this total to eclipse the posted number sooner, rather than later! |
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09-15-19 | Cardinals v. Ravens UNDER 45 | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 145 h 55 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 10* play on the Cards/Ravens under. After both teams played to high-scoring affairs in Week 1, I’m expecting much more of a defensive battle here. The Cards came from behind to tie the Detroit Lions at home, as neither side was able to score in the OT frame. The Ravens annihilated the Dolphins 59-10. Kyler Murray look poised in last week’s tie for the Cards, finishing with 308 yards, two TD’s and an INT. Clearly Arizona will be out to protect their young QB today after the Ravens hammered the Dolphins last week by posting three sacks (note that Murray was sacked five times by the Lions.) Arizona was just 1-4 in the red zone though and it committed on turnover vs. the Lions. So are the Ravens really that good, or are the Dolphins really that bad? I’m not reading too much into that Week 1 result from either the Fish or Ravens. After Arizona allowed 116 rushing yards to Detroit last week, look for the home side to lean heavily on RB Mark Ingram on Sunday. Key Trends: - Arizona has seen the total go under the number in seven of its last eight after scoring three points or less in the first half last game. - Baltimore has seen the total go under the number in its last three home games when the total is between 45.5 and 49 points. The verdict: I expect a much more conservative game plan in Week 2 from each of these non-conference foes, which I believe will help in ultimately sending this one under the number once it’s all said and done! |
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09-14-19 | White Sox v. Mariners UNDER 9.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 29 h 55 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* TOTAL CLASH OF THE TITANS on the under White Sox/M’s. Clearly neither starter instills much confidence whatsoever. That said, neither Dylan Cease (3-7, 6.53 ERA) nor Felix Hernandez (1-6, 6.96) will be lacking for motivation and each benefits from facing a line-up which struggles at the plate at times. After last night’s 9-7 explosive White Sox’ victory, I think the Saturday night contest sets up as more of a “duel.” Hernandez has been atrocious since returning from injury over two starts, but he’ll take confidence in the fact that he’s posted a very respectable 3.82 ERA in 21 career starts vs. the White Sox. Cease gave up one run over four innings vs. the Angels in his last outing. Key Trends: - Chicago has seen the total go under the number in seven of its last ten after scoring nine or more runs in its previous contest. - Seattle has seen the total go under the number in 13 of its last 21 vs. clubs with losing records. The verdict: For all the reason listed above, expect this total to sneak under once it’s all said and done! |
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09-14-19 | Alabama v. South Carolina UNDER 60.5 | Top | 47-23 | Loss | -120 | 119 h 48 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the under Alabama/South Carolina. Alabama comes to town off wins over Duke and New Mexico State, while South Carolina was shocked in a 24-20 loss to UNC in its opener, before then annihilating FCS opponent Charleston Southern 72-10. Alabama will be out to establish the run early and often vs. its first SEC opponent this year, so far it’s ranked 31st in the country in that department. But South Carolina has looked much better on the defensive side of the ball this year, especially up front. Imposing their will in the trenches is the trademark of the Tide and I look for offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian to stick to the run throughout, despite having mobile QB Tua Tagovailoa. Key Trends: - UNC gouged USC for 238 rushing yards, so as mentioned off the top, look for the visitors to try and establish the run game while on offense from start to finish. - South Carolina lost its QB Jake Bentley in the loss to UNC. Ryan Hilinski was 24 of 30 for 282 yards and two TD’s in last week’s blowout win, but obviously he’s being thrown to the Wolves here vs. the best potential defense in the conference. The verdict: How can the Gamecocks help their backup QB today? Clearly by protecting him and by running the ball effectively. And so with both teams firmly committed to establishing the run and assert itself in the trenches, all signs do indeed point to the under as the correct call here! |
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09-14-19 | East Carolina v. Navy OVER 54.5 | 10-42 | Loss | -105 | 119 h 37 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* SUPER TOTAL on the over ECU/Navy. ECU looks to carry over the momentum from its 48-9 win over Gardner Webb last time out. Pirates’ QB Holton Ahlers has completed 40 of 68 passes so far this year and as a team they’re averaging 421.5 yards per game on offense (27 PPG). Navy clearly won’t be rolling over either after posting its first win of the year last time out, a 45-9 destruction of Holy Cross. QB Malcolm Perry leads the team in rushing with 96 yards and three TD’s. Overall Navy is averaging 531 yards of offense and 45 PPG. Key Trends: - The over is 5-1 in ECU’s last six following a victory. - The over 16-7 in Navy’s last 23 home games. The verdict: Navy has won four in a row in this series by an average of 24 points and it’s option is now firing on all cylinders. With the visitors forced to match pace, look for this total to fly over sooner, rather than later; play the over! |
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09-13-19 | Washington State v. Houston UNDER 76 | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 101 h 10 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the under WSU/Houston. I think the short week, combined with the “step up” in competition will lead to this contest falling below this sky high total. WSU has average 58.5 PPG so far, but that’s been against New Mexico State and Northern Colorado. And both of those victories came at home. The Cougars of WSU hit the road for the first time this year and I believe they come out flat to open. Houston’s looked shaky at best to start the year, falling to Oklahoma, before bouncing back with an unimpressive 37-17 win over Prairie View A&M. Key Trends: - WSU has seen the total go under in three of its last four after two straight victories by 17 or more points. - Houston has seen the total go under in eight of its last 12 after playing its previous game at home. The verdict: This number is a tad high in my opinion; play the under! |
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09-13-19 | Astros v. Royals UNDER 8.5 | Top | 4-1 | Win | 106 | 29 h 44 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* TOTAL BIG TIGER on the under Astros/Royals. The Astros have been playing to some high-scoring affairs of late, but when the smoke clears at the end of this one, I believe it’ll be the starting pitchers who are the main story lines in tomorrow’s summaries. Gerrit Cole (16-5, 2.73 ERA) gets the nod for the visitors, while the home side counters with Danny Duffy (6-6, 4.71). Cole has won 12 straight decisions, posting a 1.97 ERA in the process. Note that Cole struck out 15 in his team’s 21-1 win over the Mariners last Sunday. Duffy returned from the IL to starts ago and he’s looked great, most recently allowing on run and two hits in a 7-2 victory over the Marlins. Key Trends: - Houston has seen the total go under the number in 30 of 47 this year when the total in the contest is set between 8 or 8.5. - KC has seen the total go under in 19 of 31 this year in the same position. The verdict: I have a hard time seeing the Royals’ anemic offense mustering much of an attack here; this number is high, play the under! |
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09-13-19 | North Carolina v. Wake Forest UNDER 66 | Top | 18-24 | Win | 100 | 98 h 55 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the under UNC/Wake Forest. After starting 2-0, the Tar Heels will be looking to carry that momentum over here. Most recently Mack Brown’s guys beat Coastal rival Miami. The Demon Deacons enter off victories over Utah State and Rice. UNC has gotten better than expected QB play from Sam Howell, but the offense still revolves around the run game and Javonte Williams, who has 178 rushing yards thus far. Wake has gotten exceptional play from its dual threat QB as well in Jamie Newman, who has six TD’s and no INT’s so far. Key Trends: - Despite struggling against the pass in the early going, the Deacs do already have five sacks this season. - Look for Wake Forest to utilize the run game tonight, as UNC just gave up 179 yards on the ground to Miami. The verdict: This is a big game and on the short week, I believe these under-rated defensive units become the main story lines in tomorrow’s summaries; play the under! |
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09-12-19 | Diamondbacks v. Mets OVER 8 | Top | 1-11 | Win | 100 | 21 h 20 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the over D-Backs/Mets. For a number of different reasons, I think this one sets up perfectly as a high-scoring slug-fest on Thursday afternoon. Alex Young (7-3, 3.38 ERA) has been sharp for the D-Backs of late, most recently striking out 12 in a 2-0 win over Cincinnati. After having won three of four though, I think Young finally takes a step back here in this pressure filled situation. The home side goes with Marcus Stroman (7-13, 3.42), who looked poor in his last start, allowing five runs off ten hits over four innings in a 5-0 loss to Philadelphia. Since coming over from Toronto Stroman has posted a horrible 1-2, 5.05 ERA record. Key Trends: - Arizona has seen the total go over the number in eight of its last 12 National League road games as an underdog in the +125 to +175 range. - New York has seen the total dip under the number in seven of its last 11 day home games as a favorite in the -125 to -175 range. The verdict: This is a big game/series and I believe these hungry line-ups chase these starters early; play the over! |
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09-11-19 | Brewers v. Marlins UNDER 8.5 | Top | 7-5 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 35 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* TOTAL BIG TIGER on the under Brewers/Marlins. I have a hard time seeing the offensively challenged Marlins mustering many runs in this matchup. The Brewers hand the ball to Zach Davies (9-7, 3.69 ERA), while the home side counters with Reynaldo Lopez (5-8, 4.75.) Milwaukee is going for its sixth straight win here. Note though that last night’s victory came with a major cost after slugger Christian Yelich injured himself in the first inning. He won’t be in the line-up this evening either. Key Trends: - Milwaukee has seen the total go under in ten of its last 15 on the road when the total is set at either 8 or 8.5. - Miami has seen the total dip under in 13 of its last 21 vs. right-handed starters. The verdict: I like Davies to go deep and without Yelich in the line-up, there’s no question in my mind that this one definitely sets up as a “duel,” rather than a high-scoring slug-fest; play the under! |
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09-10-19 | Diamondbacks v. Mets OVER 8 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -105 | 29 h 37 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* TOTAL BIG TIGER on the over D-Backs/Mets. Zac Gallen (3-4, 2.50 ERA) gets the nod for the D-Backs and he’ll be opposed by the Mets’ Zach Wheeler (10-7, 4.33) in this one. Both have looked good this season, but I believe each will get the hook early and I expect this total to fly over sooner, rather than later. Both teams are still in the wildcard hunt and neither will be taking anything for granted tonight. Key Trends: - Arizona has seen the total go over in 12 of its last 18 in revving a loss where the team scored one or less runs. - New York has seen the total eclipse the posted number in 16 of 25 this year already at home with a money line in the -100 to -150 range. The verdict: From a situational stand point, this one absolutely sets up as a “slug-fest;” play the over! |
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09-09-19 | Brewers v. Marlins UNDER 8.5 | Top | 8-3 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 51 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* TOTAL BIG TIGER on the under Brewers/Marlins. Neither of these starting pitchers instills a ton of confidence, but neither will be lacking for motivation here. The Brewers go with Jordan Lyles (10-8, 4.46 ERA), while the home side counters with Robert Dugger (0-1, 4.00). The Brewers beat the Cubs 8-5 yesterday afternoon to get them back into the Wild Card race, but I’m expecting much more of a “duel” today. The verdict: Note that in seven starts for the Brewers since coming over from Pittsburgh, Lyles is 5-1 with a 2.56 ERA spanning seven starts. Dugger was rocked for six runs in his debut, but since then he’s allowed just two runs over his last 13 innings of work. Look for these two hot hurlers to battle deep and expect this total to stay well below the posted number; play the under! |
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09-08-19 | Falcons v. Vikings UNDER 47.5 | Top | 12-28 | Win | 100 | 215 h 56 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the under Falcons/Vikings. It’s a big game for both teams right out of the gate. Minnesota has a 19-11 all time lead in this series, which includes back-to-back victories, including 14-9 win in 2017. Both teams took big steps backwards last year, but each has big expectations heading into this season. While the offense stalled for Minnesota last year, the Vikings return ten starters on the defensive side of the ball to a unit which is once again expected to be one of the bed tin the league. Atlanta was plagued by injury last year. The Falcons’ offense isn’t in question ever with Matt Ryan running the show, but Atlanta’s success in 2019/20 will once again be decided on what its defense is capable of doing. Key Trends: - Atlanta has seen the total go under in 11 of its last 16 on the road. - Minnesota has seen the total go under in nine of its last 12 as a home favorite. The verdict: I can’t see the Vikes turning this into a “shootout” with Ryan and company, so I believe we’ll see a much more methodical pace from the home side. When you add up all of the above factors I believe that the under is definitely the correct call! |
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09-07-19 | Rutgers v. Iowa OVER 49.5 | Top | 0-30 | Loss | -110 | 116 h 32 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the over Rutgers/Iowa. Rutgers got 340 passing yards and two TD’s from McLane Carter in its blowout win over UMass last weekend. He did however also throw three picks. Iowa only allowed 14 points in its victory last week, but it got 252 yards and three TD’s from QB Nate Stanley and the team would also go on to post 213 rushing yards. Key Trends: - The Scarlet Knights were horrible on third-down defense vs. the lowly Minutemen last week, allowing seven third-down conversions out of 16 attempts. - Iowa had the nation’s best third-down offense last week, converting nine of 14 attempts. The verdict: Rutgers has seen the total go over in six of its last seven when the total in the contest is set between 42. and 49 points. This one has “shootout” written all over it in my opinion; play the over! |
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09-06-19 | Marshall v. Boise State UNDER 55 | Top | 7-14 | Win | 100 | 101 h 43 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the under Marshall/Boise State. Marshall cruised to victory with a blowout win over FCS opponent VMI. No big surprise there. Boise State though roared out to an early lead vs. FSU and then it continued to hold on for the eventual upset victory. Can anyone say “letdown” spot? For both teams! I think Marshall struggles in this difficult road venue and I believe the Broncos take a step back after last weekend’s emotional victory. This is a big game for both teams though, with a run at the Group of 5’s top spot in the New Year’s Six. Marshall is going to see a much stiffer test this time around, as Boise State registered four sacks last week vs. the Seminoles. Key Trends: - Marshall has seen the total go under the number in ten of its last 14 when playing with six or less days rest. - Boise State has seen the total dip under in four of its last five as a home favorite in the 7.5 to 14 points range. The verdict: For all the reasons listed above, play the under! |
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09-05-19 | Mariners v. Astros UNDER 9.5 | Top | 9-11 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 56 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* TOTAL BIG TIGER on the under Mariners/Astros. For a number of different reasons, I believe this number is a little high. The visitors hand the ball to Marco Gonzales (14-11, 4.30 ERA), while the home side counters with Wade Miley (13-4, 3.06). Gonzales comes in off a shaky start vs. the Rangers on Friday, but he still sports a sharp 128/44 K/W this season (he’s also 10-6 with a 3.99 ERA in all “night” contests this season.) Miley has posted the 3.06 ERA and 1.22 WHIP to go along with 134 K’s over 152 frames this year (he’s 10-6 with a 3.89 ERA in all “night” contests YTD.) Key Trends: - Seattle has seen the total go under the number in 15 of its last 22 vs. clubs with winning records. - Houston has seen the total dip below the posted number in 12 of its last 20 vs. teams with losing records. The verdict: I look for these two hungry veterans to battle deep; play the under! |
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09-04-19 | Phillies v. Reds OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 26 h 56 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* TOTAL SUPER-BLOWOUT on the over Phillies/Reds. I’m expecting some offensive fireworks between these two explosive clubs on Wednesday night. The visitors see Aaron Nola (12-4, 3.45 ERA) toe the slab for the home side, while the the home side goes with Trevor Bauer (10-12, 4.53). The Reds are out to play spoiler here vs. the Phillies, who are still in the wild card hunt after three straight victories. Bauer is the issue here though for Cincinnati, who was 9-8 with a 3.79 ERA before being traded to Cincinnati, but who has since gone 1-4 with an 8.40 ERA. Key Trends: - Philadelphia has seen the total go over in seven of its last ten after three or more straight victories. - Cincinnati has seen the total soar over the number in 13 of its last 21 home games after back-to-back losses. The verdict: I think Bauer’s struggle continue here, but I also don’t expect the home side to go down without a fight. This one has “slug-fest” written all over it; play the over! |
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09-03-19 | Mets v. Nationals UNDER 7.5 | Top | 10-11 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 47 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* TOTAL BIG TIGER on the under Mets/Nats. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - The starting pitchers. This is a classic “ace off.” The Mets hand the ball to Jacob deGrom (8-8, 2.66 ERA), while the home side goes with Max Scherzer (9-5, 2.46). deGrom gave up four run over seven innings in a 4-1 loss to the Cubs last time out, but he’s got to be feeling confident here as he’s a sharp 5-3 with a tiny 2.30 ERA on the road. Scherzer gave up two run and struck out eight over five innings in a no-decision to the Orioles on Wednesday. Key Trends: - New York has seen the total dip under in 25 of its last 40 when the money line in the contest is set between -125 and +125. - Washington has seen the total go under the number in 11 of its last 17 vs. teams with winning records. The verdict: Expect deGrom and Scherzer to fight deep into this one; play the under! |
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09-02-19 | Notre Dame v. Louisville UNDER 55 | Top | 35-17 | Win | 100 | 35 h 0 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* BLOOD-BATH on the under Notre Dame/Louisville. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Ian Book put up big numbers after taking the reins in Week 4 for the Irish last year and he’s expected to take another big step forward this season. Book’s team this year though looks different from last year’s squad and I think he’ll have some difficulties with chemistry coming out of the gate. The Notre Dame defense also lost many key players, but its top pass rushing duo in Khalid Kareem and Julian Okwara are poised to give Jawon Pass fits for the Cardinals tonight. Pass will obviously be improved from a decent season a year ago, but he’ll be leaning heavily on his other players for support tonight in this difficult matchup. Key Trends: - Notre Dame has seen the total go under in three of its last four as a road favorite in the 17.5 to 21 points range. - Louisville has seen the total go under in six of its last seven non-conference contests. The verdict: Turnover for both teams on both sides of the ball leads to this total staying well below the posted number in Week 1; play the under! |
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09-02-19 | Mets v. Nationals UNDER 9.5 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -114 | 22 h 43 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the under Mets/Nationals. The visitors go with Noah Syndergaard (9-7, 4.14 ERA), while the Nationals counter with Joe Ross (3-3, 5.36). The Mets took two of three from the Phiilies over the weekend and they still have a shot at the post-season. Syndergaard has to be feeling confident here though as he’s a respectable 1-1 with a 3.33 ERA in four starts vs. the Nationals this year (note, Syndergaard gave up a career-high ten runs in his last start, after posting eight straight quality efforts. Time to hit the panic button? Of course not. All starters have nightmare outings like that at some point. Syndergaard is true pro and I expect him to have a very short memory here.) Ross has struggled in his limited time this year, but fortunately he’s facing a Mets team which has struggled with offensive consistency all season. Key Trends: - New York has seen the total go under in 24 of its last 40 when the money line in the contest is set between -125 and +125. - Washington has seen the total dip under in 16 of 22 already this season when the total in the contest is either 9 or 9.5. The verdict: I believe the starters go deep and I look for this total to sneak under once it’s all said and done! |
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09-01-19 | Houston v. Oklahoma UNDER 80 | Top | 31-49 | Push | 0 | 35 h 21 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* TOTAL CASH-BOMB on the under Houston/Oklahoma. Both teams enter the 2019 campaign looking vastly different than they did a year ago. Both have new coaches and each has lost significant talent (Kyler Murray is now the starting QB in Arizona and Ed Oliver has gone to the NFL as well.) The Sooners went out and got defensive guru Alex Grinch to try and bring back some respectability to that side of the ball this season. Houston has D’Eriq King back under center after he suffered a knee injury last year. Oklahoma has a talented QB transfer in Jalen Hurts this season and while he has plenty of weapons around him, I think chemistry will be an issue to start (note as well that Hurts loves running the ball, is big and can take a beating no problem.) Key Trends: - Houston has seen the total go under in six of its last ten on the road. - Oklahoma has seen the total dip under in four of its last six non-conference games. The verdict: I expect these teams to come out a little “flat” to open the game and that “lull” will help in keeping this total under this sky high number; play the under! |
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09-01-19 | Marlins v. Nationals UNDER 8.5 | Top | 3-9 | Loss | -114 | 21 h 53 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* TOTAL BIG TIGER is on the under Marlins/Nationals. I expect this one to fall under the total once it’s all said and done. The visitors hand the ball to Caleb Smith (8-8, 4.05 ERA), while the home side goes with Patrick Corbin (10-6, 3.15). Washington has the best record in the major since mid May and it’s out for the the three game sweep this afternoon. Miami on the other hand has lost 14 straight on the road. Caleb Smith (8-8, 4.05 ERA) gets the nod for the visitors and while he’s only 2-5 on the road, he does own a respectable 3.99 ERA in those contests. Patrick Corbin (10-6, 3.15) goes for the home side and he’s dominated the Fish this season, going 2-0 with a 0.78 ERA in three starts. Key Trends: - Miami has seen the total dip under the number in 13 of its last 19 as a road dog of +200 or more. - Washington has seen the total go under in three of four as a home favorite in the -250 to -330 range. The verdict: I expect these two competent starters to battle deep and for this total to fall under the number once it’s all said and done; play the under! |
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