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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-12-19 | Iowa State -10 v. West Virginia | 38-14 | Win | 100 | 98 h 25 m | Show | |
My 8* play on Iowa State. Both teams are 3-2, but I think the visitors come prepared today and I look for them to lay a beating on the home side. The Cyclones enter off a convincing 49-24 win over TCU at home and with three of their next four on the road, I think they have to set an early precident here. WVU on the other hand had its win streak snapped in a sloppy 42-31 loss to Texas last weekend. Iowa State has "murderers row" up next, with games at Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma and Texas. But I have a hard time seeing WVU slowing down Iowa State QB Brock Purdy. WVU has been terrible against FSU offenses and I look for that trend to carry over today. Key Trends: - The Cyclones are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 on the road. - WVU is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten as an underdog. The verdict: In my opinion, this one has "beatdown" written all over it; lay the points! |
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10-12-19 | New Mexico State +11 v. Central Michigan | 28-42 | Loss | -110 | 97 h 25 m | Show | |
My 8* play on New Mexico State. I think CMU gets caught "looking past" lowly and winless New Mexico State. Central Michigan is 3-3, winning all three at home. But with upcoming road games at Bowling Green and Buffalo, I do indeed feel that this sets up as a natural letdown/look-ahead spot for the home side. I think NMS QB Josh Adkins can keep his team in this one late vs. a Chips' secondary which is allowing an average of 264.2 YPG through the air. Key Trends: - New Mexico State is already 2-1 ATS as a road dog this year. - CMU is only 1-3 ATS in its last four off an upset win as an underdog. The verdict: I think the improving Aggies will at the very least, keep this one competitive until the final quarter; grab up all these points! |
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10-12-19 | Georgia Tech +17.5 v. Duke | 23-41 | Loss | -105 | 95 h 55 m | Show | |
My 8* play on Georgia Tech. Key Trends: Analysis posted shortly. |
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10-12-19 | Toledo v. Bowling Green +26 | 7-20 | Win | 100 | 94 h 26 m | Show | |
My 8* play on Bowling Green. I believe Toledo will get caught looking past its lowly opponent today. Of course I'm not predicting an outright upset, but I do expect the home side to put up a fight. Last year the Rockets beat the Falcons 52-36. Yes Bowling Green has lost four in a row after winning its opener, but it's had a difficult schedule. It's now or never for the Falcons though if they have any hope of trying to make it to a Bowl. The motivational factors in which I look for when trying to choose one side or another are firmly in place for Bowling Green today (bowl hopes on the line, combined with catching a complacent Toledo team off four straight victories, and last year's revenge factor.) Key Trends: - Toledo is just 6-7 ATS in its last 13 on the road (including 0-2 ATS this year.) - Bowling Green is 4-1 ATS in its last five after allowing 37 points or more in two straight games. The verdict: I think this one sets up great from a situational stand point for the Falcons; grab the points! |
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10-12-19 | Michigan v. Illinois +22 | 42-25 | Win | 100 | 94 h 25 m | Show | |
My 8* play on Illinois. Michigan is 4-1 and Illinois is 3-2. After hammering Rutgers 52-0, the Wolverines had to hold on for a tight 10-3 victory over Iowa last week. I'm not calling for an outright upset, but I do think that this absolutely sets up as a classic "trap" for the visitors, as Michigan has Penn State on deck next week. Key Trends: - Michigan is 4-7 ATS in its last 11 on the road. - The Wolverines are only 9-12 ATS in their last 21 after one or more SU victory. - Illinois is 6-2 ATS in its last eight as a home dog. The verdict: Illinois has had a difficult conference schedule and while it's not going to get any easier, I also don't expect it to go down without a fight this afternoon; grab the points! |
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10-11-19 | Colorado +20.5 v. Oregon | Top | 3-45 | Loss | -106 | 84 h 15 m | Show |
My 10* BIG TIGER is on Colorado. Am I suggesting that you should "sprinkle" a little on the money line in this one? Of course not. But I do think that the Buffs can keep this one close enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch with the monster spread they've been afforded here. The Buffs pulled off an upset win on the road over Arizona State, before then losing to Arizona this past weekend. Still, Colorado also has a victory over Nebraska as well. Buffs' senior QB Steven Montez is arguably playing the best of his career thus far, averaging 8.3 yards per passing attempt. Yes Oregon is still the best team in the confernce and Justin Herbert faces a weak Colorado secondary, but I think Montez keeps his team in this one late. Key Trends: - Colorado is 3-1 ATS in its last four as a road dog in the 14.5 to 21 points range. - Oregon is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven off a home win vs. a conference rival. The verdict: The Buffs haven't been an "easy out," as both of their losses have been tight. Expect this one to follow suit and grab the points! |
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10-09-19 | Devils +1.5 v. Flyers | 0-4 | Loss | -215 | 13 h 6 m | Show | |
My 5* BEATDOWN is on the the Devils PUCK-LINE. The Flyers return home after beating the Blackhawks in the Czech Republic and I think they'll have a hard time generating a lot of energy here vs. the hungry 0-1-1 Devils. Cory Schneider is expected between the pipes for the visitors and he's 5-6-1 with a 2.90 GAA lifetime vs. the Flyers. Corey Hart is expected in net for the home side and he lost his only start vs. the Devils last year, allowing three goals. Key Trends: - New Jersey is 10-6 (+6.5 units) in its last 16 when playing with three or more days rest. - Philadelphia is a terrible 25-35 (-13.7 units) in its last 60 after a non-conference game. The verdict: I think that Philly returns home tired after the big flight and I look for the Devils to at the very least, take this one into extra time. Lay the price, take the 1.5 goals! |
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10-06-19 | Colts +12 v. Chiefs | Top | 19-13 | Win | 100 | 124 h 35 m | Show |
My 10* CLASH OF THE TITANS is on the Indianapolis Colts. The Colts had a letdown last week, falling at home to the lowly Raiders. Indianapolis and Jacoby Brissett though have been solid and competitive this season, after not many gave them hope after starting QB Andrew Luck retired at the start of the campaign. Clearly Indianapolis got caught “looking ahead” to this difficult matchup. Kansas City is 4-0, but it had to come from behind on the road to beat the Lions 34-30 last weekend. Patrick Mahomes is willing his team to victory, but the Chiefs’ defense has been terrible overall. I think Brissett and the Colts can keep this one competitive down the stretch. Key Trends: - The Colts are 4-1 ATS in their last five on the road. - The Chiefs are interestingly only 2-7 ATS in their last nine at home vs. Indianapolis. The verdict: The Colts upset the Titans 19-17 in Nashville in Week 2, so the team knows how to compete on the road. No outright, but closer than expected; grab the points! |
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10-06-19 | Jaguars +3.5 v. Panthers | 27-34 | Loss | -106 | 116 h 16 m | Show | |
My 8* play on the Jacksonville Jaguars. Both divisional foes enter at 2-2. The Panthers got an effective outing out of backup QB Kyle Allen in their upset win over the Texans, while Gardner Minshew has led his team to back-to-back victories for the Jags. Minshew though has been impressive and I think he has a significant advantage of his counterpart today. Note that Minshew has seven TD’s and just one INT. The Jags also got a huge game from RB Leonard Fournette, who had 225 yards. Key Trends: - The Jags only allow 99.5 YPG rushing, which doesn’t bode well for Panthers’ RB Christian McCaffery (and in turn, will make this Panthers offense extremely one-dimensional for its rookie QB.) - Jacksonville is 7-2 ATS in its last nine as a road dog. The verdict: While the outright win is obviously possible, let’s grab the points! |
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10-06-19 | Bucs +3.5 v. Saints | 24-31 | Loss | -120 | 116 h 15 m | Show | |
My 8* play on the Tampa Bay Bucs. This is a big game. For the Bucs more than the Saints in my opinion. Tampa is now 2-2 after it demolished the Rams 55-40 last weekend. Tampa got four turnovers, including three INT’s and it only allowed 28 rushing yards. That doesn’t bode well for a Saints team which is down to is second string QB Teddy Bridgewater. Bridgewater is a game manager, but he lacks the talent of Drew Brees obviously. The Saints only average 102 YPG on the ground, which is ranked 19th. I think the Bucs are going to make New Orleans’ normally versatile offense, very one-dimensional this afternoon. Key Trends: - The Saints are just 1-5 ATS in their last six at home home. - The Bucs are 4-1 ATS in their last five vs. teams with winning records. The verdict: Jameis Winston and company beat the Saints on the road last year and while I do feel they have a legitimate shot at repeating that feat this weekend as well, I will in the end recommend that you grab as many points as you can; play on the Bucs! |
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10-05-19 | Virginia Tech +14 v. Miami-FL | Top | 42-35 | Win | 100 | 96 h 27 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH is on Virginia Tech. The Hokies enter off a loss to Duke, 45-10. VT will be focused on the task at hand here and while I’m not in fact calling for the outright upset, I do think that the stage is set for a very competitive battle. Miami Florida is just 2-2 as well, most recently holding on for a tight 17-12 win over lowly CMU. This is a pivotal game as each team looks to keep their bowl hopes alive. Last week VT QB Ryan Willis was 7 of 8 for 112 passing yards, one TD and one INT last week. Fortunately for Willis and company, the Hurricanes have also looked horrible on both sides of the field. Miami also comes out of its bye week, and I think that rest is going to lead to rust. Key Trends: - Miami is just 1-4 ATS in its last I’ve following a SU win. - The Hurricanes are a poor 4-12 ATS in their last 16 conference games. The verdict: Willis won’t have an easy time moving the ball, but neither will Miami. In what I expect to be a sloppy game, I’m going to grab all the points and expect a “nail-biter!” |
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10-05-19 | Illinois +14 v. Minnesota | 17-40 | Loss | -109 | 95 h 7 m | Show | |
My 8* play on Illinois. The Fighting Illini come to town 2-2, looking to pull off the upset vs. the 4-0 Minnesota Golden Gophers. Minnesota has been getting exceptional play from QB Tanner Morgan, who has hit over seventy percent of his passes for ten TD’s over four starts. Morgan’s unreal play has covered up the fact that the Gophers have been downright terrible defensively (allowing just under 30 PPG thus far.) This is the window of opportunity that Illinois can exploit and while I don’t think it’ll win SU, I do expect a tight battle. Illinois has been getting great offensive play, led by the rushing attack of Reggie Corbin, who has posted more than 100 yards rushing in two straight games. Key Trends: - Illinois is 5-1 ATS in its last six following a home loss. - Minnesota is only 4-7 ATS in its last 11 as a favorite (including 0-2 ATS this year). - The Golden Gophers are just 4-6 ATS in their last ten as a home favorite. The verdict: I believe the Gophers ineptitude on the defensive end leads to this game being a “nail biter;” grab the points! |
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10-05-19 | Baylor v. Kansas State -2 | 31-12 | Loss | -107 | 95 h 7 m | Show | |
My 8* play on Kansas State. These are the top two defenses in the Big 12. K-State is 2-1 and looking to bounce back in front of the home town crowd after its 26-13 loss to Oklahoma State. The Wildcats come in ranked 17th in the country by allowing 241.5 rushing YPG. K-State is going to have its hands full today with Baylor QB Charlie Brewer, who has ten TD’s and no INT’s so far this season. Despite that though, the Bears barely held on for a 23-21 win over Iowa State last weekend, almost blowing a 20-point lead. Key Trends: - Baylor has allowed five sacks over the last two games. - 45 of the Bears 65 points allowed this year have come in the fourth quarter. - K-State has three RB’s with over 120 yards rushing, including 321 by James Gilbert. The verdict: Note that K-State’s QB Skylar Thompson has four TD’s, 604 yards passing and no INT’s himself. K-State is 6-1 ATS in its last seven following a SU loss, while Baylor is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine following an ATS victory; lay the short points! |
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10-05-19 | Texas v. West Virginia +11.5 | 42-31 | Win | 100 | 95 h 6 m | Show | |
My 8* play on WVU. Both teams enter at 3-1. Texas is a heavy road favorite, but I think that rest is going to lead to “rust” here. The Longhorns last played two weeks ago, beating Oklahoma State 36-30. Texas has been getting great play from QB Sam Ehlinger, who had 281 passing yards, four TD’s and an INT in his team’s latest victory. WVU also enters rested and focused after its bye week. The Mountaineers most recently held on for a 29-24 win over Kansas, with RB Martell Pettaway leading with a pair of rushing scores. Key Trends: - The Mountaineers are 4-0 ATS in their last four following their bye week. - The Longhorns are just 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight conference contests. - Texas is a poor 0-4 ATS in its last four following a SU victory. The verdict: WVU is 7-1 SU in its last eight at home and it won’t be an “easy out” here whatsoever. Maybe no outright, but closer than expected; grab the points! |
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10-03-19 | Georgia Southern v. South Alabama +12 | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 74 h 5 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on South Alabama. No outright victory, but I expect this one to be a lot closer than what this line/spread would suggest. Both teams are terrible, meaning that the home field advantage can’t be overlooked as very real factor for the Jaguars tonight. The Georgia Southern Eagles are 1-3, while South Alabama is 1-4. Last year Georgia Southern went 10-3 and it beat EMU in its bowl game, but it lost all of its talent to graduation and now the Eagles are grounded. Georgia Southern’s only win this year has come against FCS Maine. Georgia Southern is also allowing 35 PPG thorugh its first three FBS contests. The Jaguars are only 1-4, but they’ve had the much more difficult schedule to this point. Note that South Alabama played Nebraska in its opener and only lost by 14 (put up 21 points of its own!) And the Jaguars other contests came against Memphis and tough road contests vs. UAB and ULM. Key Trends: - South Alabama is 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. teams with losing records. - The Eagles are only 1-7 ATS in their last eight games played on field turf. The verdict: I think Georgia Southern is on the ropes and I look for the home side to risk life and limb to pull off the upset tonight. That said, let’s grab all these points! |
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09-30-19 | Bengals v. Steelers -3 | Top | 3-27 | Win | 100 | 36 h 57 m | Show |
My 10* CLASH OF THE TITANS on the Pittsburgh Steelers. Yes Cincinnati has ALMOST won in both Seattle and Buffalo this year, but the team still comes to town 0-3. The Steelers are 0-3 as well and they’re dealing with significant injury, as QB Ben Roethlisberger The Steelers are down to backup Mason Rudolph, who I think will benefit greatly from playing at home this week. Andy Dalton has been the lone bright spot on the Bengals’ offense, as his line continues to be a weak point. The Bengals have also been poor in the secondary. The Steelers strength is on the defensive side and I think the unit is a difference maker in tonight’s contest. I’m also calling for a big day from RB James Conner, who to this point has been pretty quiet for Pittsburgh. The verdict: Throwing out the ATS stats for this one, and concentrating on the situation. I have a hard time seeing this Bengals offense mustering much of an attack in this hostile environment and I look for Conner to step up and deliver the goods; lay the short points! |
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09-29-19 | Seahawks v. Cardinals +5 | 27-10 | Loss | -102 | 123 h 18 m | Show | |
My 8* play on the Arizona Cardinals. This is “situational” play for me. Seattle is the “better” team on paper, but divisional contests are always the most difficult (especially on the road.) The Hawks also have a short week with a Thursday night game vs. the division leading Rams coming up. Seattle also comes in off its first loss of the year, getting hammered at home by a Drew Brees-less Saints team (note that the Hawks two other victories have come against current 0-3 teams.) The Cards are 0-2-1, but their season lies in the balance here. A victory today gets them right back into the mix. Key Trends: - Cards are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 after posting less than 250 total yards in their last game. - The Seahawks are interestingly just 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven after posting more than 250 passing yards in their previous games. The verdict: I think the home side has a legitimate shot at taking this one outright; that said, let’s grab the points! |
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09-29-19 | Redskins v. Giants -2.5 | 3-24 | Win | 100 | 120 h 14 m | Show | |
My 8* play on the New York Giants. The Redskins are terrible. That’s mainly due to some key injuries, but I think they’ve already thrown in the towel after starting 0-3. The Giants though are 1-2 after they made a switch to rookie QB Daniel Jones last week vs. the Bucs. Jones looked great by going 23 of 36 for 336 yards and two TD’s, along with four rushes for 28 yards and another pair of TD’s. The Redskins were just manhandled on both sides of the ball by the Bears and I think they’re in for another long afternoon vs. this tough road division rival/venue. Key Trends: - Washington is interestingly just 1-4 ATS in its last five games on field turf. - New York is a solid 3-0-1 ATS in its last four vs. a club with a losing record. The verdict: I think Jones is a difference maker and I believe the rookie makes the most of this golden opportunity; lay the short points! |
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09-29-19 | Chargers v. Dolphins +16.5 | Top | 30-10 | Loss | -108 | 120 h 14 m | Show |
My 10* play on the Miami Dolphins. Josh Rosen doesn’t have much to work with as the QB for the Miami Dolphins this year, but he’s not going to down without a fight this afternoon. Rosen and the Dolphins have absolutely nothing to lose. Miami is already looking ahead to next season after a rash of injuries de-railed its season. But more than anything I think the Chargers are vastly over-rated here. LA clearly has the better team on paper, but so far it’s been terrible to start the season with back-to-back losses. RB Melvin Gordon doesn’t come back to next week and I think LA’s struggling offense continues to sputter vs. this hungry home side. Key Trends: - LA is interestingly just 4-5 ATS in its last nine after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in two straight games. - Miami is interestingly 3-1 ATS in its last four vs. the AFC West (does this stat really matter? It certainly doesn’t hurt the Dolphins, that’s for sure!) The verdict: For all the reasons listed above, grab the points and expect a closer than predicted battle! |
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09-29-19 | Patriots -7 v. Bills | 16-10 | Loss | -100 | 120 h 13 m | Show | |
My 8* play on the New England Patriots. The Bills are 3-0. The Patriots are 3-0. I think that’s where the similarities end between the two teams. The Pats rolled to a 30-14 home win over the Jets last time out, while the Bills had to come from behind to knock off the Bengals 21-17. Both teams have been “lights out” defensively early, but New England leads the league by conceding just 199 yards per game. Key Trends: - Buffalo is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven at home. - The Bills are only 1-4 ATS in their last five home games vs. clubs with winning SU road records. - New England is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 vs. teams with winning records. The verdict: Buffalo’s offense is still a work in progress, which doesn’t bode well facing this unbelievable New England defense. I’m banking on a blowout, lay the points with confidence! |
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09-28-19 | NC State +6 v. Florida State | Top | 13-31 | Loss | -104 | 102 h 60 m | Show |
My 10* CLASH-OF-THE-TITANS is on NC State. I think the visitors will at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. The Wolfpack are 3-1 to start, while the Seminoles are 2-2 after beating Louisville at home last weekend. NC State can score, it averages 34.0 PPG, with RB Zonovan Knight leading the charge with 269 rushing yards and three major scores over three games. The WolfPack are also getting solid play from QB Matthew McKay, who has three TD’s and one INT. The run game is strong for the visitors as well with Ricky Person Jr, who will test FSU’s 91st ranked run defense, which allows 159 yards per game. FSU QB James Blackman has also been a manager for the most part, with the Seminoles offense centred around RB Cam Akers. Note though that NC State is allowing just 76 rushing yards per game this year, ranked 14th in the nation. Key Trends: - NC State is 5-1 ATS in its last six off a no-cover where it won SU as the favorite. - FSU is only 6-10 ATS in its last 16 at home. - The Seminoles are a poor 5-11 ATS in their last 16 after playing a conference game. The verdict: While I do think the outright win isn’t out of the question, in the end I’ll recommend grabbing as many points as you can in a contest which I envision coming down to whichever of these two hungry sides has its hands on the ball last! |
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09-28-19 | Minnesota v. Purdue +2 | 38-31 | Loss | -118 | 98 h 6 m | Show | |
My 8* ROUT on Purdue. Purdue is hungry here sitting at 1-2. Minnesota enters at 3-0, but I think it gets caught flat here vs. this desperate Boilermakers side. Both teams enter off their respective “bye weeks.” Last year Purdue got killed by 31 points in Minnesota, so the “revenge factor” is definitely in play here as well (it’s interesting to note that Purdue’s only win in this series over the last six years as come at home with Head Coach Jeff Brohm.) Key Trends: - Look closer at Minnesota’s 3-0 start. The Gophers have been South Dakota State, Fresno State and Georgia Southern. Not exactly murderers row. - Last year the Gophers started 3-0 and then finished the year just 6-6. - Minnesota QB Tanner Morgan has six TD passes and two INT’s vs. poor competition and note that he’s already been sacked 11 times this year. The verdict: The home team is 10-4-1 ARTS the last 15 in this series. The Golden Gophers are a poor 1-4-1 ATS in their last six following a SU win. Play on the home side to expose Minnesota badly today in this revenge bounce back scenario! |
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09-28-19 | USC +10 v. Washington | 14-28 | Loss | -109 | 98 h 40 m | Show | |
My 8* PUNISHER is on USC. The Trojans have nothing to lose this weekend after upsetting Utah last week. Washington is ranked No. 17, while USC is ranked No. 21 after beating the Utes. This line is so large because of the QB issue for USC, as third string Matt Fink, who led the Trojans to victory last weekend, will be getting the start here. Washington lost to Cal, but it’s since beat Hawaii and BYU. Washington has Jacob Eason under center this season and despite winning his last two, I think he’ll have his hands full in Pac 12 action. Key Trends: - Fink had 350 yards and three TD’s vs. Utah’s suffocating defense last week. - Washington head coach Chris Peterson on facing the USC Defensive line: "This is the best defensive line that we've seen, without question. California has good players, for sure, but just talent-wise, that's the strength of USC's defense. It's interesting that a true freshman is one of the guys who flashes and really shows up, and he does that.” The verdict: I think Washington’s stats are skewed due to its recent sub-par competition. No outright, but closer than expected; grab the points! |
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09-27-19 | Duke v. Virginia Tech -2.5 | Top | 45-10 | Loss | -115 | 83 h 11 m | Show |
My 10* play on Virginia Tech. Both teams are 2-1. The Hokies have looked shaky so far this season, losing to Boston College in Week 1 (five turnovers) and then struggling to get past ODU and FCS Furman. Duke meanwhile has looked a bit better, getting smashed by Alabama in its opener, followed by lop-sided wins over North Carolina A&T and MTSU. The Hokies have a big opportunity today on home field though to reverse their early struggles and I believe they step up and do just that. Note that VT has won three straight in this series. Duke’ QB Quentin Harris has looked sharp in the early going, but his numbers are skewed over the last two games facing such poor competition. The Hokies sport the 88th ranked run defense, which matches up well against Duke, which averages 181 rushing yards per game thus far. Duke has given Harris plenty of protection so far, allowing only one sack to this point, but note that the Hokies rank 17th in the country with 3.33 sacks per game. The home side turns to Ryan Willis to air it out today to Tre Turner and Tayvion Robinson. Key Trend: - Duke has only forced three turnovers this year. The verdict: I’m unconvinced that Duke can keep up this pace and I think that its young QB finally takes a step back today vs. the more experienced home side and in this difficult road venue; lay the short points! |
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09-23-19 | Bears v. Redskins +4.5 | Top | 31-15 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 35 m | Show |
My 10* ATS BLOOD-BATH is on the Washington Redskins. So far the Bears’ offense has looked terrible. The defense has been decent, but the level of competition to this point is suspect in my opinion. Washington comes in at 0-2 and desperate for a victory. The Redskins have been horrible defensively, but the offense has in fact been above average (24.0 PPG, ranked 10th). With their season on the line, I think the home side will at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. Key Trends: - Chicago is 7-9 ATS on the road in its last 16. - The Bears are only 1-2 ATS in their last three after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games. - Washington is a perfect 3-0 ATS in its last three off a home loss vs. a division rival. The verdict: Washington QB Case Keenum has 601 passing yards, five TD’s and no INT’s. Chicago QB Mitchell Trubisky has been bad overall this season, throwing for just 120 yards last week. I’m banking on the “hungrier” team getting the job done tonight; grab the points! |
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09-22-19 | Ravens +7 v. Chiefs | 28-33 | Win | 100 | 71 h 17 m | Show | |
My 8* play is on the Baltimore Ravens. I think Baltimore is the better all around team. KC has an amazing offense and it has the advantage of playing at home, but I’m unconvinced of the Chiefs’ defense still. Both teams have played sub-par competition so far to get to 2-0, but the Ravens clearly have the offensive fire-power to “hang” with any team in the league. Combined with what I believe to be a superior defensive unit and special teams, I do indeed think we’re getting a gift with the ample points here. Key Trends: - Baltimore is 7-3 ATS in its last ten as an underdog. - KC is interestingly just 2-5 ATS in its last seven after scoring 17 points or more in the first half of two straight games. The verdict: Of course I wouldn’t be shocked by the outright upset, but in the end I’ll recommend to grab as many points as you can; play on the Ravens! |
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09-22-19 | Bengals +7 v. Bills | Top | 17-21 | Win | 100 | 71 h 17 m | Show |
My 10* play is on the Cincinnati Bengals. I’m basing this pick primarily on the “situation.” Cincinnati is still without main WR AJ Green and the Bengals come to Buffalo desperate sitting at 0-2. The Bills enter content after their surprising 2-0 start and while Josh Allen has looked sharp so far for Buffalo, I’m unconvinced still to this point. Last week the Bengals ran into a red hot 49ers team, but they looked pretty good in their 21-20 loss in Seattle in Week 1. I expect another hard-fought battle in Buffalo vs. the over-achieving Bills. Key Trends: - The Bengals are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 as a road dog. - The Bills are just 1-4 ATS in their last five after a win by 14 points or more. The verdict: With their season on the line, I think the Bengals will at the very least, take this one right down to the wire; grab the points! |
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09-22-19 | Raiders v. Vikings -8.5 | 14-34 | Win | 100 | 71 h 16 m | Show | |
My 8* play on the Minnesota Vikings. The Raiders got smoked by the Chiefs at home last week. Oakland hits the road for the first time this year. I think the Raiders get caught looking ahead to the next daunting few weeks, which sees them play only one home game in that span, and that’s when they’re in London, England. Oakland suffered a big blow to its secondary when Johnathan Abram went out in Week 1 vs. Denver. Last week the Raiders’ secondary looked weak against Patrick Mahomes and I think it’ll struggle here too in this difficult road venue. Minnesota looked great in Week 1, but poor in Week 2 at Lambeau. A little home cooking is just what the doctor ordered for Kirk Cousins and company though in my opinion. Dalvin Cook makes Minnesota’s offense dangerous, as he already has 265 total rushing yards. Key Trends: - Minnesota is 5-1 ATS in its last six following an ATS loss. - Oakland is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven on the road. The verdict: The Vikes are holding opponents to 7-23 on third downs so far and they’re allowing 108.5 rushing YPG. Minnesota also has six sacks for 50 yards. I have a hard time seeing the Raiders slowing down, or scoring against the Vikings today; lay the points! |
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09-22-19 | Dolphins +23 v. Cowboys | 6-31 | Loss | -110 | 71 h 16 m | Show | |
My 8* play is on the Miami Dolphins Key Trends: Analysis posted shortly. |
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09-21-19 | Nebraska v. Illinois +13.5 | 42-38 | Win | 100 | 55 h 47 m | Show | |
My 9* CLASH OF THE TITANS is on Illinois. The Fighting Illini come in hungry after suffering their first defeat of the season in a 34-31 set back to EMU on a last-second field goal. Nebraska comes in a tiny bit complacent here in my opinion after its 44-8 drubbing of NIU. Huskers’ QB Adrian Martinez has 725 passing yards to open the year, but I think he’ll have a more difficult time moving the ball on the road in Big Ten play. Illinois beat Akron 42-3 and UConn 31-23 and has looked competitive in every game thus far. Last week QB Brandon Peterson had 297 yards passing with two TD’s and an INT. Also note that Illinois RB Reggie Corbin had 144 yards ion 18 carries. Key Trends: - Nebraska is just 5-7 ATS in its last 12 as a favorite, including only 1-2 ATS this year. - Illinois is 3-1 ATS in its last four as a home dog in the 10.5 to 14 points range. The verdict: I’m expecting another dog fight from the Illini today; so grab up as many points as you can! |
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09-21-19 | Old Dominion +29 v. Virginia | 17-28 | Win | 100 | 54 h 38 m | Show | |
My 8* SPECIAL is on ODU. After beating the Seminoles last week, I think that UVA gets caught “looking past” its lowly opponent today. Last year ODU was 4-8, but it’s looked more competitive this season. Last week ODU faced the Hokies and it kept it relatively close. Overall the Monarchs are allowing only 26 PPG, but managing just 20.6. ODU runs the ball twice as much as it passes, but facing a team which does the same helps the visitors here in my opinion. Bryce Perkins has been great in the early going for UVA, but as mentioned off the top I think this sets up as a natural “letdown” spot for the home side after last week’s big upset victory. Key Trends: - ODU is 3-1 ATS in its last four after scoring three points or less in the first half of its last game. - Virginia is 0-2 ATS in its last two as a home favorite of 21.5 to 28 points. The verdict: Old Dominion won’t be rolling over here. The Monarchs’ strength on defense makes “the points” the correct call in this matchup; play on ODU! |
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09-21-19 | Central Florida -11 v. Pittsburgh | Top | 34-35 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 10 m | Show |
My 10* BIG TIGER is on UCF. UCF started last year 3-0 and it enters this one with a 3-0 record as well. I believe the Knights keep the foot on the gas here and I have a hard time seeing the Panthers keeping pace down the stretch. And if recent history is any precedence, then UCF has to be loving its chances as it destroyed Pitt last year 45-14. The Knights’ offense has been impressive, averaging 50 PPG so far. Last week the Knights smashed Stanford 45-27. Pittsburgh stumbled down the stretch last year to finish 7-7 and it’s also stumbled out of the gates this season by going 1-2. Last week the Panthers feel 17-10 at Penn State. Key Trends: - The Knights allow only 13.7 PPG The verdict: UCF QB Dillon Gabriel went 22 of 40 for 347 yards, four TD’s and zero INT’s last week. All four TD passes went to four different players. Pittsburgh has gotten decent play from QB Kenny Pickett, but I’m not reading too much into last week’s stats. Look for the Golden Knight’s smothering defensive play to be too much for the home side to handle down the stretch; lay the points! |
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09-21-19 | UL-Lafayette +3 v. Ohio | 45-25 | Win | 100 | 49 h 40 m | Show | |
My 9* BEWARE OF DOG play is on Louisiana Lafayette. Outright victory? Of course it’s not out of the question, but I think that grabbing the points is the savvy move in this one. Ohio enters off back-to-back losses, while the Ragin Cajuns enter off a 77-6 win and average 590.3 YPG of offense (currently fourth in the country). The Cajuns limited FCS opponent Texas Southern to just 236 yards last week, while racking up 748 of their own. The Bobcats posted an easy 41-20 win over Rhode Island in their opener, but they’ve since lost two straight, falling 20-10 to Pittsburgh and 33-31 to the Herd last weekend. QB Nathan Rourke was a stand out in a losing cause for Ohio last week, throwing for 215 yards and three TD’s, while also running for another 118 yards. Key Trends: - Louisiana Lafayette is 5-1 ATS in its last six on the road. - The Cajuns are 5-1 ATS in their last six non-conference contests. The verdict: I think this is a tight game. I understand that the Cajuns’ early numbers are skewed, but the offense can unquestionably move the chains; for all the reasons listed above, I’m grabbing the points! |
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09-19-19 | Titans v. Jaguars | Top | 7-20 | Loss | -123 | 59 h 10 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the Titans. After Nick Foles went down with injury, the Jaguars hopes of a playoff berth went down the toilet too. Now 0-2 to open the year and down to backup Gardner Minshew under center, I believe that the Titans bounce back from their inexplicable 19-17 loss to the Colts last weekend. Back-to-back losses to divisional opponents, especially one which has so many injuries to key players (CB AJ Bouye, WR Marqise Lee, DE Yannick Ngakoue and LT Cam Robinson.) The Titans annihilated the Browns in Week 1 and I believe we’ll see a return to form here. Key Trends: - Tennessee is 3-0 ATS in its last three off a home loss. - The Titans are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 after one or more straight losses. - The Jags are a poor 7-8 ATS in their last 15 at home. - Jacksonville is only 4-6 ATS in its last ten off a divisional contest. The verdict: I think the Titans are the better team in all three phases and I don’t see them looking past this opponent after last week’s “brain fart.” Lay the short points! |
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09-19-19 | Houston +5 v. Tulane | Top | 31-38 | Loss | -104 | 59 h 42 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on Houston. It’s the opening of AAC play for both teams. Houston is just 1-2 after back to back losses to two tough opponents in Oklahoma and Washington State. D’Eriq King has been relatively quiet so far, but I think that’s been because of the level of competition to open. The Green Wave have made significant strides and enter at 2-1, but I think they’ll have a hard time containing King and company and this Cougars offense which finished No. 16 in passing in the nation last year. Justin McMillan is a legitimate dual threat back for the Green Wave, but I don’t expect the Cougars to give up as many yards to him as they did to Jalen Hurts. Key Trends: - Houston is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 when playing with six or less days rest. - Tulane is just 1-3 ATS in its last four off a home win by 17 points or more. The verdict: Tulane lacks the scoring punch of Houston and while I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I think this one comes right down to the wire; grab the points! |
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09-15-19 | Colts v. Titans -3 | 19-17 | Loss | -110 | 145 h 56 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Titans. The Titans dismantled the Browns in Week 1 and I think they’re going to control this game vs. their division rival at home as well in Week 2. Indianapolis plays its second straight game away from home after losing a heart breaker to the Chargers in OT in LA in Week 1. The Colts put everything they had on the line in that one to try and pull off the upset, but it still wasn’t enough. With that heartbreaker still on the front of their minds, I think the visitors get steamrolled today by this confident Titans side. Key Trends: Yes the Colts offensive line was impressive in Week 1, but Tennessee’s offensive line was also dominant last week. In every single category I’m giving Tennessee the advantage today, especially with Marcus Mariota under center. Finally note that the Titans defeated the Colts twice in 2018 when Jacoby Brissett was the starting QB and note that they’ve won 16 of their last 20 games in Nashville overall; lay the points! |
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09-15-19 | Chargers -3 v. Lions | 10-13 | Loss | -110 | 145 h 56 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 10* play on the LA Chargers. LA definitely won’t be taking anything for granted here after nearly losing to the Colts in Week 1, managing the 30-24 OT victory after getting outscored 18-7 in the second half. The Lions though looked even worse by blowing an 18-point lead to the Cardinals and then leaving Arizona with a tie after neither side could score in OT. Key Trends: - LA is 6-1 SU in its last seven vs. the NFC (also 5-2 ATS in those games.) - The Chargers were 7-1 SU on the road last year. - The Lions are only 6-11 in their last 17 as a home underdog. The verdict: Philip Rivers had 333 yards and three TD’s for the Chargers last week and after the way that rookie QB Kyler Murray dismantled the Lions’ defense last week, I think the veteran “has himself a day” here as well; lay the short points! |
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09-15-19 | Bills v. Giants +2.5 | 28-14 | Loss | -109 | 145 h 55 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the New York Giants. Buffalo came from behind to beat the Jets 17-16 on the road last weekend. The Bills final stats looked sharp, but for much of that game Buffalo struggled. New York started decently in Dallas last weekend, but then it also fell apart down the stretch, falling 35-17 once it was all said and done. Buffalo’s defense stepped up big against the Jets, but I have a hard time seeing lightning striking twice for the offensively challenged Bills. Eli Manning and the Giants are essentially in a “must win” scenario early, as second straight loss to open the year will undoubtedly have all of his naysayers calling for his termination immediately. Key Trends: - Buffalo is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven off an upset win as an underdog. - New York is 7-2 ATS in its last nine off a loss vs. a division rival. The verdict: The Giants looked poor against the pass with Dak Prescott, but the young secondary catches a break this week facing Josh Allen and the offensively challenged Bills; grab the points! |
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09-15-19 | Patriots v. Dolphins +17 | 43-0 | Loss | -110 | 145 h 55 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Miami Dolphins. New England roared out to an easy victory over Pittsburgh in its opener and now its set to welcome dynamic receiver Antonio Brown into the mix. The Dolphins were steamrolled 52-10 by the Ravens in their opener and afterwards several players requested trades. Clearly on paper this is a major mismatch, but I expect this in fact to work in our favor here. The Patriots will rest starting players after they have a comfortable lead and the home side WILL NOT be lacking for motivation after getting crushed in Week 1. From a situational stand point, I think this one sets up great for the home side (ATS clearly!) Key Trends: - The Pats are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven played in Miami. - The home side is 14-3 ATS the last 17 in this series. The verdict: I think the Pats take the foot off the gas in the second half and the hungry Fish sneak in comfortably through the back door down the stretch; grab the points! |
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09-15-19 | Cowboys v. Redskins +5.5 | 31-21 | Loss | -110 | 145 h 54 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Washington Redskins. Dallas managed a 35-17 win in its opener vs. the Giants, while the Redskins are looking to bounce back after they fell 32-27 at Philadelphia. Washington had a 20-7 lead at one point in that one, before then falling apart. This has essentially become a “must win” game for the home side, as an 0-2 hole to start the year, combined with a second straight loss to a divisional foe will clearly be too much for the Skins to overcome. Dallas gave up 151 rushing hards to Saquon Barkley last week, so Washington RB Adrian Peterson will be seeing plenty of action. Key Trends: - Dallas is just 4-6 ATS in its last ten off a division game. - Washington is 8-2 ATS in its last ten after allowing 30 points or more in its previous game. The verdict: With the season on the line, look for the home side to at the very least, take this one right down to the wire! |
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09-15-19 | Seahawks v. Steelers -3.5 | 28-26 | Loss | -100 | 145 h 54 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Seahawks are 1-0. The Steelers are 0-1. This has essentially become a “must win” game for the Steelers, especially after losing to the Patriots in Week 1 and the way in which the Ravens crushed the Fish last weekend. The pressure is on Pittsburgh to step up and deliver in this favorable home situation. The Hawks may have won last week, but it was far from convincing by outlasting Cincinnati 21-20. Key Trends: - Andy Dalton had 415 yards passing and two TD’s for the Bengals vs. the Hawks last weekend. Clearly Big Ben is licking his chops to get a shot at this suspect secondary. The verdict: I think that the Steelers lay it all on the line this weekend and I expect the Hawks to throw in the white flag early; lay the points! |
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09-14-19 | Oklahoma v. UCLA +23.5 | Top | 48-14 | Loss | -110 | 123 h 16 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* NCAAF GAME OF THE YEAR on UCLA No outright victory obviously, but after starting 0-2 the UCLA Bruins are going to be desperate to pull off an upset here. With nothing to lose and playing with a sense of season ending desperation, I do indeed believe that the home side will keep this one competitive until the final moments. And would anyone fault the Sooners if they were caught “looking past” their lowly opponent in some small way today, especially after easily beating Houston and South Dakota? UCLA has talent on the defensive side of the ball and Sooners’ QB Jalen Hurts will be tested. OU’s D though is still trying to find itself under new coordinator Alex Grinch, so UCLA RB Joshua Kelly and company will have their opportunities. Key Trends: - Oklahoma is a poor 1-5 ATS in its last six as a road favorite. - UCLA is 3-1 ATS in its last four off an upset loss as a favorite. The verdict: UCLA has the size up front to make things difficult for OU. No outright, but expect this one to come down to the wire. Grab the points! |
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09-14-19 | Miami-OH v. Cincinnati -16 | 13-35 | Win | 100 | 115 h 13 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* SITUATIONAL BLOWOUT on Cincinnati. Miami looked poor in its opener vs. Iowa and it lost 21-0 at home to the Bearcats last season. Cincinnati is going to be super motivated obviously after getting spanked by Ohio State last weekend. The Bearcats though haven’t lost a home game since November 2017. Cinncy QB Desmond Ridder will obviously have a much easier time this week vs. the RedHawks, who are allowing 27.5 PPG thus far. Brett Gabbert has been solid early for Miami Ohio, but this is definitely his stiffest test yet. Key Trends: - Miami Ohio is just 2-8 ATS in its last ten non-conference games. - Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS in its last five at home. The verdict: After last week’s national embarrassment, I look for Cincinnati to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish in this favorable matchup; lay the points! |
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09-14-19 | Kansas State v. Mississippi State -7 | 31-24 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 51 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on in Mississippi State. Last year the Bulldogs smashed K-State 31-10 in Manhattan and once the smoke clears at the end of this one, I expect a similar style of blowout. The Wildcats come in with optimism after starting the year 2-0, but a quick look at their competition (FCS Nicholls State and MAC opponent Bowling Green) tells the real story. Mississippi State is 2-0 as well to the start the season, but it’s level of competition has been significantly greater, having beat Louisiana and Southern Miss. K-State QB Skylar Thompson has looked great in the early going, but clearly he facets his stiffest test yet. Key Trends: - The Bulldogs have forced at least one turnover in 18 straight games. - Through two games Mississippi State has recovered four fumbles and posted three INT’s. The verdict: The Bulldogs are also 13-1 vs. non-conference opponents the last three years. Look for the home side’s aggressive defense to prove to be the difference maker and lay the points with confidence! |
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09-13-19 | Kansas +22 v. Boston College | Top | 48-24 | Win | 100 | 100 h 30 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on Kansas. Outright victory? Of course not. But I think that BC gets caught looking past its lowly opponent today. BC upset VT 35-28 in Week 1 and then followed it up with a simple 45-13 victory over FCS Richmond in Week 2. KU beat Indiana State 24-17 in its opener, before stumbling 12-7 at home to Coastal Carolina. Kansas has a big bruising back in Khalil Herbert and I believe he’ll be a difference maker today; so far he has 170 rushing yards over the first two games. Key Trends: - KU has played solid defense so far, allowing an average of 4.9 yards per play. - BC has allowed 403 total yards per game so far, so the opportunities for KU will be there tonight. The verdict: BC has a great back in AJ Dillon, but as pointed out above, I think the conditions are right for a much more competitive battle than what this spread would suggest; grab up all those points! |
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09-12-19 | Bucs v. Panthers -6.5 | Top | 20-14 | Loss | -104 | 81 h 34 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the Carolina Panthers. Bruce Arians is a good NFL head coach, but the Bucs are a bad team. TB QB Jameis Winston had 194 passing yards last week in his team’s 31-17 home loss to San Francisco, but he also had three INT’s, two of which were returned for a TD. The Bucs looked “OK” defensively, but it’s hard to truly judge facing San Francisco. The Panthers lost 30-27 to the Rams on Sunday, starting slowly and never able to recover. RB Christian McCaffrey had himself a day though, finishing with 128 rushing yards and two TD’s (also led the team with ten receptions.) Key Trends: - Tamp Bay is just 1-5 ATS in its last six after allowing at least 30 points in its previous game. The verdict: The short week always favors the home side and I definitely expect that to be the case on Thursday night. I don’t think Tampa’s offensive issues are going to suddenly fix themselves in such a short time and I do believe that the Panthers will play much better defensively this week. Lay the points with confidence! |
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09-09-19 | Texans +7.5 v. Saints | Top | 28-30 | Win | 100 | 245 h 55 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Houston Texans. Every team in the National Football League has “big” expectations heading into a new campaign, and these two clubs are no different. Houston finished with an 11-5 record a year ago, while the Saints lost a heart-breaker to the Rams in the NFC Championship Game under a controversial call. Note though that last year Mark Ingram had the second most rushing yards in the league for the Saints and he’s now gone to Baltimore. I think this effects the offense for the home side early this year. Key Trends: - New Orleans has dropped every season opener since 2014. - The Saints have lost their first home game in each of their last four seasons. The verdict: Both teams have new faces on both sides of the ball, but the situation and numbers point to a competitive battle in my opinion; grab the points! |
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09-08-19 | Steelers +7 v. Patriots | Top | 3-33 | Loss | -137 | 222 h 11 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Pittsburgh Steelers. Year after year these two teams are always in the playoffs and making a serious run at the championship. New England more so than Pittsburgh of late. New England made a big acquisition in Antonio Brown on Saturday, but I think that’s going to be more of a distraction. The Super Bowl Champ has done well ATS in its first game back the following year, but I believe that trend finally comes to an end vs. this hungry visiting side. Pittsburgh hates AB and it hates New England. I think the “hungrier, hate filled” side will at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. Key Trends: - Pittsburgh is 6-1 ATS in its last seven as an underdog (and 5-0 ATS its last five as a road dog). - New England is only 5-7 ATS in its last 12 as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range. The verdict: I think Pittsburgh has a legitimate shot at taking this one outright. That said, grab as many points as you can! |
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09-08-19 | Colts v. Chargers -6.5 | 24-30 | Loss | -109 | 218 h 56 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the LA Chargers. If Andrew Luck was playing in this game, I’d still recommend a play on the Chargers. Granted, Jacoby Brissett is a worthy backup, but he’s being thrust into the spot-light here in short order and I believe he’s going to predictably struggle here in this difficult road venue. LA is without RB Melvin Gordon, but Philip Rivers returns, along with a strong stable of receivers and an improved defense. I think this is going to be a slaughter from start to finish. Key Trends: - Indianapolis is only 10-13 ATS in its last 23 as an underdog. - LA is 7-3 ATS in its last ten as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range. The verdict: No Luck = no luck. Lay the points, expect more than a River, this one has complete WASHOUT written all over it! |
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09-08-19 | Redskins +10 v. Eagles | 27-32 | Win | 100 | 215 h 55 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 9* play on the Washington Redskins. It’s an important divisional matchup on Sunday. Last year Washington was 5-2 after the first seven games, but then it would finish 7-9. Philadelphia beat Chicago in the Wild Card Round last season, before then falling 20-14 to the Saints int he Divisional Round. Philadelphia is going to be leaning heavily on Carson Wentz to open the year, as it completely overdid its RB roster, bringing in Jordan Howard, before then also grabbing Miles Sanders. The strength of Philadelphia early I think will be its defense. Washington has plenty of question marks, but it has the talent to keep up to the one dimensional home side in my opinion. Key Trends: - Washington is 3-0 ATS in its last three as a road dog in the 7.5 to 14 points range. - Philadelphia is 0-2 ATS in its last two as a home favorite in the 7.5 to ten points range. The verdict: I think Washington pulls out every play in the playbook to try and pull of the upset in Week 1. That said, grab the points! |
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09-08-19 | Bills +3 v. Jets | 17-16 | Win | 100 | 215 h 55 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Buffalo Bills. Buffalo benefits from early regional contests, with back-to-back contests vs. state rivals Jets and then the Giants. The Bills have plenty of weapons on the offensive end, including Devin Singletary and Frank Gore. QB Josh Allen looked comfortable in camp and he has two deadly weapons in John Brown and Cole Beasley. Le’Veon Bell was New York’s big offseason signing, but the offense is still very one-dimensional in my opinion. Sam Darnold looked great at times last year and pretty pedestrian in others. Key Trends: - Buffalo is 3-2 SU in its last five games played in New York. - Note that head-to-head the underdog is 7-1 ATS the last eight in this series as well. The verdict: The QB’s are a “wash” in my opinion; grab the points! |
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09-07-19 | Arkansas v. Ole Miss -6.5 | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 123 h 1 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on Mississippi. The SEC Arkansas Razorbacks are 1-0 and the SEC Ole Miss Rebels are 0-1. Arkansas was just 2-10 last year, including 0-8 in league play under Chad Morris, while the Rebels were 5-7 overall last season, including just 1-7 in SEC action. Ole Miss’s lone conference victory came at Arkansas, 37-33, but I expect a more decisive victory this season. Arkansas managed a victory last week, but it was a 20-13 effort over FCS Portland State. The Hogs went a poor 5 of 15 from third down in the more difficult than expected victory. Ole Miss was competitive throughout its 15-10 loss to Memphis after going down 13-0 early. Key Trends: - Arkansas is just 3-6 ATS in its last nine on the road. - Ole Miss is 3-1 ATS in its last four after a loss by six points or less. The verdict: The Hogs were terrible on the road last year and I think they have a big dose of reality this weekend vs. this SEC foe; lay the points! |
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09-07-19 | Coastal Carolina +9.5 v. Kansas | 12-7 | Win | 100 | 123 h 31 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on Coastal Carolina. The CC Chanticleers are out to rebound after falling 30-23 to EMU in their opener last weekend. QB Fed Payton had 304 yards, two TD’s and four INT’s. The Kansas Jayhawks enter off a satisfying 24-17 victory over Indiana State and I believe it’ll suffer a predictable letdown here vs. this dangerous underdog (Carter Stanley was a standout in Kansas win with 241 yards and two TD’s.) Key Trends: - Coast Carolina is 7-3 ATS In its last ten on the road. - The Chanticleers are 7-2 SU in their last nine non-conference games. - Conversely, Kansas is only 7-18-1 ATS in its last 26 non-conference contests. The verdict: I think these teams are more evenly matched than what this spread would suggest and in a contest which I envision coming down to whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I’ll ultimately recommend grabbing as many points as you can; play on Coastal Carolina! |
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09-07-19 | UL-Monroe v. Florida State -21 | 44-45 | Loss | -110 | 121 h 31 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on Florida State. Florida State was upset by Boise State last weekend. But, the Broncos are a good team, so losing to them isn’t the end of the World in my opinion. Does Louisiana Monroe have the ability to take advantage of FSU’s inefficiencies on the defensive side? The Seminoles are loaded with talent, especially on the offensive end and I don’ think that ULM will be able to keep pace down the stretch. Key Trends: - ULM is just 1-3 ATS in its last four as a road dog in the 21.5 to 28 points range. - FSU is 4-1 ATS in its last five after playing a non-conference contest. The verdict: Of course there are going to be problems on the defensive side for FSU, but I believe the home side will keep the foot on the gas from start to finish on the offensive end of things; lay the points! |
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09-07-19 | San Diego State v. UCLA -7 | 23-14 | Loss | -105 | 120 h 46 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on UCLA. SDSU beat Weber State, but the offense looked terrible, only managing two field goals. UCLA looked like a deer caught in the headlights in its loss to the Bearcats last week, but with a week to adjust, I believe Chip Kelly will take advantage of this struggling SDSU offense. Aztecs’ QB Ryan Agnew had just 108 yards on 16 completed passes last weekend. SDSU is simply too one dimensional and I think it’s going to struggle on both ends of the field today vs. this now very focused home side. Key Trends: - SDSU is just 1-4 ATS in its last five after scoring 14 points or less in its previous contest. - UCLA is 5-1 ATS in its last six off a road loss. The verdict: UCLA has the talent advantage. It’s also desperate after last week’s loss. For all intents and purposes this has become a “must win” for Kelly and company; I’m laying the points and expecting a rout! |
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09-07-19 | Old Dominion v. Virginia Tech -28 | 17-31 | Loss | -110 | 116 h 32 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on Virginia Tech. VT lost at Boston College to open the 2019 campaign, but I believe it’ll bounce back in fine fashion here. ODU comes in off a win in Week 1, but it was far from impressive, holding on for a 24-21 victory over FCS Norfolk State. ODU lost QB Blake LaRussa in the off-season, as well as most of the offensive core and I believe the visitors are going to have a hard time generating much offense here (Stone Smartt was 17 of 23 for 158 yards passing in ODU’s win last week.) Key Trends: - ODU only has four starters back from a defense which last year had difficulties stopping both the pass and run. The verdict: The Hokies gave the ball away a ghastly five times last Saturday and they lost the turnover battle by a five to one margin. Look for VT to clean up its sloppy play and to dominate on both sides of the ball from start to finish; lay the points with confidence! |
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09-07-19 | Ohio v. Pittsburgh -5.5 | Top | 10-20 | Win | 100 | 115 h 32 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh stumbled vs. Virginia last weekend, but I think the Panthers make adjustments and bounce back big vs. Ohio. The Bobcats are a legitimate MAC contender, but with a game at Penn State next weekend, clearly Pittsburgh can ill afford to look past its potentially dangerous opponent today. However, I’m not reading too much into any “trap” this weekend. I would have though if Pittsburgh had won last week, but because of the setback, that factor gets thrown out the window completely. Key Trends: - Ohio is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven after a win by 21 points or more. - Pittsburgh is 3-1 ATS in its last four after a loss by ten points or more to a conference rival. The verdict: The Panthers’ offense stalled against Virginia’s aggressive unit, but i think that Pittsburgh gets back on track with a full four quarter effort and before it’s big matchup on the road next weekend; lay the points! |
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09-06-19 | Wake Forest v. Rice +18.5 | Top | 41-21 | Loss | -108 | 100 h 44 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on Rice. Rice didn’t look very good offensively in last week’s 14-7 loss to the Army Golden Knights, but the Owls looked exceptionally good on the defensive end. Wake Forest managed a 38-35 win over Utah State in Week 1, but it pretty much looked horrible on both sides of the ball, especially defensively where it allowed over 410 yards passing. Rice won’t be lacking for confidence today and I believe the visitors are definitely over-rated considering their form last weekend. Key Trends: - Wake Forest is just 4-6 ATS in its last ten as a favorite. - The Demon Deacons are only 4-6 ATS in their last ten non-conference games. - Rice is 5-2 ATS in its last seven off a cover where the team lost as an underdog. The verdict: For all the reasons listed above, grab as many points as you can! |
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09-05-19 | Packers v. Bears -3 | Top | 10-3 | Loss | -110 | 151 h 32 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the Chicago Bears. Green Bay clearly has the best QB in the league in Aaron Rodgers, but the Bears’ Mitchell Trubisky isn’t that far behind. Rodgers has a new coach in Matt LaFleur and many new faces on the offensive side of the ball as well. The Packers can’t possibly be any worse on the defensive side of the ball after conceding 28 PPG last year, but the unit will have some chemistry issues as well in my opinion to open things up. And that leaves the door open for Chicago on Opening night. The Bears’ defense was tops in the NFL last year, allowing only 17.7 PPG and the entire unit is back and ready to prove that it wasn’t a fluke. The verdict: I love Rodgers and I think he’s going to put up big numbers this year. But Also think that Matt Nagy and the Bears have this game circled on their calendar since the end of last season; lay the points! |
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09-02-19 | Twins -1.5 v. Tigers | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -128 | 21 h 16 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Twins run line. The Twins won big on Sunday and I believe they’re going to lay the hammer down here as well in this extremely favorable matchup on the mound. The visitors go with ace Jake Odorizzi (14-6, 3.55 ERA), while the home side goes with Jordan Zimmermann (1-9, 6.24). Odorizzi enters off a gem, holding the White Sox to two runs over six innings and he’s now won three of his past four decisions. Zimmermann has been better of late, but he’s still only 4-5 with a ballooned 6.89 ERA in ten career match ups vs. the Twins. Key Trends: - Minnesota is 9-3 this year as a road favorite of -175 or higher. - Detroit is just 10-37 as a home dog this year. The verdict: Finally note that Odorizzi is 5-1 with a 3.05 ERA in ten starts vs. the Tigers in his career, which includes going 3-0 with a 1.93 ERA at Comerica Park. Lay the 1.5 runs for the near pick-em price! |
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08-31-19 | Fresno State +13.5 v. USC | Top | 23-31 | Win | 100 | 730 h 35 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* game of the month on Fresno State. Clay Helton managed to keep his head coaching job for the Trojans last year despite finishing just 5-7. It’s a difficult schedule ahead for USC as well, with Stanford coming to town next, then at BYU, Utah, at Washington and at Notre Dame to follow, I believe the home side does in some small way get caught “looking ahead” to its daunting schedule. USC has plenty of offensive talent and great coaches, but it’s inexperience on its offensive line is a clear weakness. And that’s bad news facing this powerful Fresno State defensive front, which isn’t going to concede many yards on the ground and is therefore going to make the Trojans attack extremely one-dimensional. Key Trends: - Fresno State beat UCLA 38-14 last year. - The Bulldog beat Arizona State 31-20 in the Las Vegas Bowl last season. The verdict: USC also has issues in its secondary. I’m expecting a war until the final whistle; grab the points! |
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08-31-19 | Eastern Michigan v. Coastal Carolina +6 | 30-23 | Loss | -115 | 722 h 25 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 9* play on Coastal Carolina. EMU was the better overall team last year, but the Eagles defense is a complete re-haul from last season. EMU also has a new coach in Jamey Chadwell and while while the offense will be “OK,” the difference here is clearly on the defense side for the visitors. The Chanticleers catch a break here facing an EMU team that lacked a run game last year, as Coastal Carolina’s defensive core returns to help a unit which struggled with consistency last year. Key Trends: - EMU is just 5-6 ATS in its last 11 as a favorite. - Coastal Carolina is 5-2 ATS in its last seven non-conference games. The verdict: These are two well coached teams, but i think the massive turnover on the defensive side of the ball for the Eagles make Coastal Carolina and the points the correct call here; grab the points! |
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08-31-19 | Ole Miss v. Memphis -5.5 | 10-15 | Loss | -110 | 719 h 56 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 9* play on Memphis. The Ole Miss Rebels have won just 16 games over the last three years. Memphis on the other hand has posted five straight winning seasons and the last two years it’s gone to the AAC title game, falling to UCF each time. Ole Miss has been ineligible for a bowl the last two years and while it is this season, I still think the Rebels will have their hands full here. And that’s because Ole Miss returns only three starters to its offense and it also has an entirely new offensive coordinator. Memphis was poor defensively last year, so new Ole Miss QB Matt Corral will have his opportunities, but I still don’t think it’ll be enough to keep up to this high-octane Tigers’ offense. Key Trends: - Memphis is 9-0 in pre-noon starts, averaging 52 points in those match ups. - The Tigers have outscored their opponents 150-93 in the first quarter of games a year ago. The verdict: Brady White had 3,296 passing yards and 26 TD’s for the Tigers last year and I look for him to have a massive game to open the season vs. the Power 5 team; lay the points! |
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08-30-19 | Oklahoma State -15 v. Oregon State | 52-36 | Win | 100 | 706 h 31 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on Oklahoma State. Oregon State hasn’t made a bowl game in over five years. Oklahoma State has been a consistent Bowl program in the Big 12 for a decade now and I look for the new look Cowboys to lay the hammer down in this favorable matchup. That said Oklahoma State has big expectations here after finishing just 7-6 last year. The Beavers are once again projected to finish last in the Pac 12 North. Oklahoma State turns to Hawaii transfer Dru Brown under center. Brown led a resurgent Warriors attack last year. And that’s bad news for an Oregon State defense which allowed a staggering 281.8 YPG through the air last season. Key Trends: - The Cowboys are 7-1 ATS in their last eight non-conference games. - The Beavers are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine as a home underdog. The verdict: For all the reasons listed above, I’m laying the points and expecting a rout! |
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08-30-19 | Wisconsin -10 v. South Florida | 49-0 | Win | 100 | 702 h 1 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 9* BIG TIGER on Wisconsin. Wisconsin won’t be overlooking the dangerous Bulls here. Note that Paul Chryst is 3-1 in his season openers for the Badgers, while USF’s Charlie Strong is 2-0 since being hired as head coach. But Wisconsin returns a big offensive line and I believe it’ll be too much for USF to handle right out of the gates. The Badgers also feature one of the league’s top RB’s in Jonathan Taylor (note that USC allowed 247.54 YPG on the ground last year and it conceded 36 rushing TD’s.) Bulls’ QB Blake Barnett had 12 TD’s and 11 INT’s last year and he’ll be tested by a revamped Badgers defense. Key Trends: - Wisconsin is a perfect 3-0 ATS in its last three as a road favorite in the 10.5 to 14 points range. - South Florida is only 4-9 ATS in its last 13 at home (and just 1-2 ATS in its last three as a home dog.) The verdict: I think the Badgers control this game in the trenches and I look for them to easily pull away for the comfortable cover as the contest comes down the stretch; lay the points! |
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08-29-19 | Kent State +26 v. Arizona State | Top | 7-30 | Win | 100 | 733 h 12 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on Kent State. Kent State is a train-wreck the last few season and it should once again struggle this year. ASU has to be liking its chances at home after watching Arizona fall on the road in Hawaii in its opener. But the Golden Flashes won’t be going down without a fight. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not calling for an outright upset, but I do think that ASU gets caught looking past its lowly opponent here. The verdict: Kent State returns its entire offensive line, which will benefit QB Woody Barrett. I’m not convinced of this ASU defense, especially all of the new faces up front. Besides, ASU features a new QB in true freshman Jayden Daniels. The Golden Flashes have a golden opportunity here and I’m grabbing the points! |
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08-29-19 | Texas State +34.5 v. Texas A&M | 7-41 | Win | 100 | 732 h 42 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on Texas State. Outright upset? Here’s another big dog I’m backing on Thursday night (my three game report contains all large underdogs.) The Aggies come in off a 9-4 campaign in 2018, including 5-3 in SEC action. A&M went on to destroy NC State 52-13 in the Gator Bowl as well. Texas State was just 3-9 overall last season, including just 1-7 in the Sun Belt. But Texas State has a strong defense and a couple of new additions on the offensive end and I believe it’ll comfortably sneak in through the back door. The verdict: Texas State has a new head coach in the offensive minded Jake Spavital and QB in Gresch Jensen, who transferred over from Montana. But Texas A&M will be susceptible defensively without starting CB Debione Renfro in the line-up, who is out from suspension. Texas State also has experienced receivers, who have an advantage over the young A&M secondary. Also note that A&M gets caught “looking ahead” here to its game at Clemson next week. I’m grabbing the points! |
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08-29-19 | Georgia Tech +34.5 v. Clemson | 14-52 | Loss | -109 | 731 h 12 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on Georgia Tech Outright upset? Of course not. The defending National Champs aren’t going to lose on Opening night, but I do think that the stage is set for a much more competitive battle than what this spread would suggest. Geoff Collins is the new head coach for Georgia Tech, who has made his name because of his defensive prowess. These teams meet up every year despite being in different divisions of the ACC (GT plays with the quadruple revenge factor today. The verdict: GT has three different options at QB as it heads into the new season. Whoever is under center though will benefit from the Tigers defensive line, with all four linemen being new faces, including two at linebacker as well. The Clemson offense for the most part remains the same with Trevor Lawrence directing the show. Admittedly it’s never a good week to face the Clemson Tigers, but I think Week 1 is the best you could possibly have asked for. With GT featuring a new coaching staff that will be doing everything it can to stay competitive, I’m going to definitely recommend grabbing as many points as you can! |
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08-29-19 | Steelers v. Panthers +4 | Top | 19-25 | Win | 100 | 29 h 42 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* BEWARE OF DOG TOP DOG play on the Carolina Panthers. Neither team will start any of their starters here. But after going 3-0 to open the pre-season, I believe that the Steelers are definitely going to “go through the motions” today. At 1-2 though, the Panthers still have issues to work out at key positions. The verdict: These teams have played against each other every pre-season since 2003 and Pittsburgh has won the last two. The home side also plays with the added revenge factor tonight. These two key reasons, combined with the home field advantage do indeed make Carolina the correct call in this matchup in my opinion! |
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08-24-19 | 49ers v. Chiefs -3.5 | Top | 27-17 | Loss | -105 | 36 h 47 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the KC Chiefs. San Francisco QB Jimmy Garoppolo was just one of six for zero yards and an INT in last week’s win over the Broncos. Last year Garoppolo tore his ACL at Arrow Head Stadium and I think he and the 49ers will struggle once again in this difficult road venue. Key Trends: - KC is 9-6-1 ATS in its last 14 preseason games. The verdict: The Chiefs are expected to play their starters for the entire first half and I believe that will more than enough to build an insurmountable home lead; lay the points! |
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08-23-19 | Bills v. Lions +2.5 | Top | 24-20 | Loss | -105 | 35 h 20 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the Detroit Lions. Buffalo is 2-0 in the preseason, but I think it takes a step back on the road in Week 3. The Lions won’t be lacking for motivation here obviously as they’re winless so far in the preseason. So far Josh Allen has looked good in the early going vs. vanilla defenses, but he’s going to be in for a big surprise here vs. the Lions’ starters in my opinion. The verdict: Matt Stafford is only expected to see a few snaps in this one for Detroit, leaving a big competition still for the No. 2 spot between David Fales and Josh Johnson, both of whom are going to benefit greatly today playing behind and with the first team offense. I think the Lions take this seriously and punch their first victory of the preseason; that said, grab the points! |
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08-22-19 | Redskins -2.5 v. Falcons | Top | 19-7 | Win | 100 | 32 h 38 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the Washington Redskins. Both teams have plenty of issues. The Redskins though are still looking to solidify their No. 1 QB and because of that, I expect the visitors to find a way to get the job done here. Atlanta’s Matt Ryan is only expected to see a few snaps and Julio Jones and many of the other key star offensive players for the home side will also see limited to no time whatsoever. Key Trends: - Atlanta’s Dan Quinn is just 5-14 all time in the preseason as the Falcons coach. - Washington head coach Jay Gruden is 12-10 all time in the preseason. The verdict: Case Keenum will likely get the call as No. 1 in Washington, but we’ll also see a lot of backup Dwayne Haskins. Atlanta will feature Matt Schaub, and I think he’ll have his hands full trying to keep pace. Look for Washington to pull away down the stretch! |
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08-18-19 | Cubs -1.5 v. Pirates | Top | 7-1 | Win | 102 | 26 h 44 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* RUN-LINE ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE on the Cubs. Jose Quintana (10-7, 4.11 ERA) is performing at his highest level in quite some time and I believe he’s worth laying the 1.5 runs for the pick-em price. Quintana most recently gave up two runs (only one earned) over six innings, while also going on to strike out 14 in what turned out to be an unfortunate no-decision to the hard-hitting Phillies on Tuesday. Over his last four starts Quintana has given up four runs and struck out 26 spanning 19 frames of work. Mitch Keller (1-1, 7.94) has been a train-wreck in his limited time so far for the Pirates, although after being recalled last week he would hold the Angels to one run over five innings in earning his first victory. The book is out on Keller clearly and I believe he’s in well over his head in this matchup. Key Trends: - The Cubs are 7-2 in their last nine National League night road games in which they’re a favorite in the -135 to -200 range. - The Pirates are only 8-11 in their last 19 home games as an underdog in the +150 to +225 range. The verdict: Quintana has the experience and momentum to close out the regular season strong. The Cubs won’t be lacking for motivation here either after a scuffling stretch. Keller comes in off a great start, but an immediate return to mediocrity is imminent in my opinion; lay the 1.5 runs! |
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08-18-19 | Saints v. Chargers -3 | Top | 19-17 | Loss | -110 | 147 h 16 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the LA Chargers. Both teams come in off Week 1 losses. But the Saints looked downright terrible defensively last week in their 34-25 setback at home to the Vikings. With starting QB Drew Brees expected to see little or no time once again, I think New Orleans struggles again here defensively (overall the Vikes had 213 rushing yards and 247 passing.) Taysom Hill and Teddy Bridgewater admittedly both looked decent in their battle for No. 2. The Chargers eventually fell 17-13 in Arizona in Week 1. LA also got good QB play from its potential backups, with Easton Stick passing for 78 yards and rushing for 51, while Cardale Jones was 4 of 6 for 47 yards. Tyrod Taylor though was 6 of 6 for 72 yards, while rushing for 34 more. The verdict: LA looked a lot better on the defensive side last week than New Orleans and I believe that will once again be the difference maker for the Chargers this weekend. I think the Saints get caught looking ahead to their all important Week 3 dress rehearsal; lay the points. |
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08-17-19 | Patriots v. Titans +3 | Top | 22-17 | Loss | -106 | 126 h 20 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the Tennessee Titans. The Patriots demolished the Lions in Detroit in preseason Week 1 action, but they’ll play their final two preseason games at home after this contest. Week 3 is the all important “dress rehearsal” of course, where the starters see the majority of action for the game, so with that in mind I believe that the visitors will indeed just “go through the motions” this evening. The Titans on the other hand will be looking at this game as a measuring stick and they’ll want to keep the foot on the gas after their impressive 27-10 win over the Eagles in Week 1. The verdict: After going 0-4 in the preseason last year, Titans coach Mike Vrabel has already gotten out to a better start this season. This is a “situational” play for me. I think the Pats are already looking ahead to their first preseason game at home next week, while the Titans come in seriously focused on the task at hand. Outright win? Obviously completely possible, but in the end let’s grab the points! |
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08-16-19 | Bears v. Giants | Top | 13-32 | Win | 100 | 103 h 54 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE on the New York Giants. The New York Giants have to be feeling good after rookie Daniel Jones shone in his team’s Week 1 win over the Jets. Note that the Bears are 2-4 in the preseason under 2018 NFL Coach of The Year Matt Nagy, while the Giants are 3-2 under Pat Shurmur. The Bears lost 23-13 last week at home to Carolina and starting QB Mitch Trubisky didn’t see any time in that one and he likely won’t here either (keep your eyes on Chicago rookie RB David Montgomery, who had a rushing score last week and also caught three passes.) The Giants did indeed prevail 31-22 over the Jets and Jones was 5 for 5 for 67 yards and a TD. Key Trends: Nagy’s job is secure and he clearly doesn’t put much stock into the preseason. Shurmur is already on the “hot seat” though and his young rookie QB appears to competing for the No. 1 spot. This one has “blowout” written all over it! |
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08-15-19 | Raiders v. Cardinals -3.5 | Top | 33-26 | Loss | -105 | 79 h 28 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the Arizona Cardinals. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Key Trends: Analysis posted shortly. |
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08-10-19 | Bengals +5 v. Chiefs | 17-38 | Loss | -109 | 243 h 10 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Bengals. The Chiefs have their QB situation under control, but they’re going to be heavily looking at their No. 3 RB behind Damien Williams and Carlos Hyde. The Bengals on the other hand are auditioning players for the No. 1 WR role after AJ Green went down with a season ending injury. Cincinnati is also stacked defensively. The Chiefs know they can put points on the board, but an added emphasis on the defensive end will clearly be a top priority for the team in the preseason. Key Trends: - While it’s only Game 1 of the preseason, it’s still significant to note that Cincinnati has covered in its previous four road games and it’s also a perfect 4-0 ATS in its last four vs. the AFC. The verdict: This one means a lot more to the Bengals, who have some serious competitions going on in the starters positions; grab the points! |
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08-10-19 | Rams v. Raiders -3 | 3-14 | Win | 100 | 243 h 10 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 10* play on the Raiders. I got down early and got a favorable line in this one. LA made it all the way to the Super Bowl and then laid an egg vs. Tom Brady and company and historically the year after a setback in the big game hasn’t been good to a team. The Raiders won’t be lacking for motivation here after last year’s disappointing season. The verdict: The difference maker here? Sean McVay isn’t expected to play any of his star offensive players here. Jon Gruden on the other hand is about run several competitions at key positions throughout the preseason. I’m expecting a completely lop-sided blowout; lay the points! |
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08-09-19 | Vikings +3 v. Saints | Top | 34-25 | Win | 100 | 219 h 26 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the Minnesota Vikings. The Saints have been knocked out of the playoffs on heart-breaking last moment plays in back-to-back seasons. While those two setbacks will clearly be driving Drew Brees and company, I’d argue that Minnesota is by far the “hungrier” team this season. The Vikes won the division title in 2015 and 2017 and last year they were just 8-7-1 after signing veteran QB Kirk Cousins. Key Trends: These teams have played in 30 regular season games and four playoff games. Minnesota is 22-12 all time in the series, 19-11 in the regular season and 3-1 in the postseason. The verdict: Neither team’s starters will see much or any time today obviously. But Minnesota has many competitions going on for a starters role and I believe that alone will prove to be the difference here. Outright victory? Obviously very possible, but in the end I’ll recommend grabbing as many points as you can! |
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08-08-19 | Chargers v. Cardinals -1 | Top | 13-17 | Win | 100 | 198 h 39 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the Arizona Cardinals. Kyler Murray will be front and center under center for the Cardinals tonight. Murray is a player that has the potential to make an instant impact on the field and I believe he’s going to make the most of his very first opportunity vs. this vanilla Chargers’ defensive unit. Underneath coach Anthony Lynn the Chargers are 1-3 and 2-2 in the preseason. Arizona though not only has a new QB, but it also has a new coach in Kliff Kingsbury, who I believe will be out to make a statement as well and get his tenure started off on the “right foot.” From a situational stand point, I absolutely feel that this one sets up great for the home side. Key Trends: Neither team is expected to see its star players see much action today. Except of course for Cardinals’ rookie Murray. Look for Arizona to get the 2019/20 season started off with a solid win; lay the short points! |
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08-07-19 | Phillies +1.5 v. Diamondbacks | 1-6 | Loss | -158 | 27 h 27 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Philadelphia Phillies on the run line. While I believe the outright win is not out of the question, in a contest which I see being decided late or even in extra time, I’m going to lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Jason Vargas (6-5, 3.93 ERA) toes the slab for the visitors and he was solid in Phillies’ debut, allowing two runs with five K’s over seven innings in a victory over the White Sox on Friday. The home side counters with Zac Gallen (1-3, 2.72) who will make his debut for his new team today after rooming over from the Marlins. Key Trends: - Philadelphia is 7-2 in its last nine as a National League road dog in the +135 to +175 range. The verdict: I love Vargas in this matchup; that said, lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs (as mentioned off the top!) |
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08-07-19 | Cardinals +1.5 v. Dodgers | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 23 h 53 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Cardinals on the run-line. While the outright win isn’t out of the question in my opinion, in a contest which I envision being decided late or in extra time, I’m going to lay the reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Joe Flaherty (5-6, 3.93 ERA) gets the call for the visitors and he’s coming off a dominant outing vs. the Cubs on Thursday, going seven scoreless with one hit two walks and nine K’s. The home side counters with Dustin May (0-1, 4.76), who has had one decent start and one poor start as he fills in for the injury Hyun-Jin Ryu and Ross Stripling. Key Trends: - St. Louis is 8-3 in its last 11 National League day games as an underdog in the +150 to +175 range. The verdict: Note that over his last five starts Flaherty has been downright filthy, giving up just four earned runs with a 39/9 K/W over 31.1 frames of work. |
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08-01-19 | Broncos v. Falcons +3 | Top | 14-10 | Loss | -100 | 34 h 36 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the Atlanta Falcons. Denver has a new head coach and a new QB. The Broncos fired Vance Joseph and hired the defensive minded Vic Fangio from the Bears. QB Case Keenum is gone and veteran Joe Flacco is in. Flacco likely won’t even play tonight, leaving duties to rookie Drew Lock. The Falcons have plenty of issues as well, but the veteran offensive core returns. While most of those starters won’t be suiting up here, I still think that Atlanta has the advantage here. Denver is having to work through many different issues with new coaching personnel and in the Hall Of Fame Game, I believe the advantage swings to the more experienced Falcons. The verdict: While the outright win is clearly not out of the question, in the end I’ll recommend grabbing as many points as you can; play on the Falcons! |
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07-31-19 | Mets v. White Sox +1.5 | 4-2 | Loss | -113 | 25 h 53 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Chicago White Sox run line. I’m laying the “pick em” price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. The Mets go with ace Jacob deGrom (6-7, 2.86 ERA), while the home side sees ace Lucas Giolito (11-5, 3.52) toe the slab. Giolito comes in off a terrible start vs. the Twins, allowing four home runs, but starts like that have truly been few and far between for a while now for the hard-throwing right-hander and I think he’s going to be able to match deGrom’s effort this evening. Key Trends: - The Mets are just 2-8 in their last ten interleague night home games as a favorite in the -135 to -175 range. - Chicago is 10-5 in its last 15 interleague home games as an underdog in the +140 to +175 range. The verdict: In a contest which I see being decided late or even in extras, I’m playing this one on the run line! |
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07-29-19 | Tigers v. Angels -1.5 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -126 | 15 h 23 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* BIG TIGER on the Angels on the run line. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Key Trends: Analysis posted shortly. |
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07-28-19 | Yankees +1.5 v. Red Sox | Top | 9-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* run line play on the New York Yankees. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Revenge. I think it works here. After three straight blowout losses, I think the high-powered Yanks bring their “A” game to the table on the nationally televised Sunday night game. Key Trends: - New York is already 9-4 (+2.9 units) this year after having lost four or five of its last six games. - Boston is already just 12-14 (-8 units) this season after having won five or six of its last seven games. The verdict: These starters are a “wash,” but the desperation level in which the Yanks play with tonight ends up being the situational difference; lay the pick em price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance! |
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07-20-19 | BC +4 v. Saskatchewan | Top | 25-38 | Loss | -110 | 100 h 50 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on BC. I got down early and unfortunately have a bit of an unfavorable line and while I will in fact recommend grabbing as many points as you can, I am expecting the visiting side to win this one outright. Both teams only have one victory so far this year. The Riders’ lost their starting QB in Game 1 and have replaced with Cody Fajardo, who has 945 yards, four TD’s and two INT’s on the year. BC went out and signed the biggest FA in the off-season and so far QB Mike Reilly has 1,256 passing yards with five TD’s and five INT’s. BC won’t be lacking for motivation here either after having lost three straight in this series. The Riders though are coming off their bye week and I do definitely believe that rest is going to lead to rust. Key Trends: - BC 5-2 ATS in its last seven as an underdog in the +2 to +9.5 points range. - Saskatchewan is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven as a home favorite in the +3.5 to +7.5 points range. The verdict: The good thing for CFL teams that struggle early in the season, is that the campaign is 18 games, instead of 16 like the NFL. Reilly and the Lions still have ample time to turn things around and go on a run and I believe that begins this weekend. Expect the hungry visiting side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night! |
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07-05-19 | Winnipeg v. Ottawa -3.5 | Top | 29-14 | Loss | -102 | 57 h 11 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the Ottawa RedBlacks. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Home field advantage. I think it matters in this one between two undefeated teams. Ottawa definitely won’t be taking anything for granted here, as Winnipeg has won the last three games here SU. Winnipeg QB Matt Nichols his ranked eighth in the league after two games with 384 yards, while his six passing TD’s are tied for first. Overall the Bombers have averaged 30.5 PPG, while allowing 22. Ottawa though enters refreshed after its bye. The RedBlacks have averaged 38 PPG and allowed 34.5. QB Dominique Davis has 630 passing yards and three passing TD’s, as well as three rushing TD’s. Key Trends: - Winnipeg is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven as a road dog in the 3.5 to 7 points range. - Ottawa is 12-8 ATS in its last 20 non-conference contests. The verdict: I think the stage is set for a lop-sided blowout for the home team. Lay the points! |
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07-01-19 | Toronto +14 v. Saskatchewan | Top | 7-32 | Loss | -120 | 170 h 24 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the Toronto Argonauts. There’s only one way that Argo’s QB’s play can go this weekend after getting killed 64-14 at home to a red hot Hamilton Ti-Cats team. Toronto started with James Franklin, who looked awkward in the pocket and who was eventually pulled for James Wilder Jr. and Derel Walker. This was going to be a re-building year for the Argos anyways, but I don’t think they’re nearly as bad as what last week’s setback would indicate. The Roughriders have looked better than their counterparts so far, but they’re still 0-2 and coming off a disheartening 44-41 road loss at Ottawa. I think that desperation leads to motivation here and I’m expecting a very tight battle until the end. Key Trends: - Toronto is 3-1 ATS in its last four following a loss to a division rival. - Saskatchewan is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven as a favorite in the 3.5 to 12.5 points range. The verdict: Toronto will be playing its heart out here on Canada Day as it looks to rebound from last week’s humbling setback and I think that’ll be more than enough to keep this one close. Grab the points! |
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06-29-19 | Diamondbacks v. Giants +1.5 | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 15 h 13 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Giants on the run line. San Francisco beat the Diamondbacks 6-3 on Friday night and I think that home side offers great value to do it again here. That said, in the end I’ll lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Zack Greinke (8-3, 3.08 ERA) has dominated the Giants throughout his career, but I think he’s overpriced here considering his recent form (has allowed 18 hits and nine runs over his last 13 innings of work). Drew Pomeranz (2-8, 6.79) gets the nod for the home side and while he’s struggled in the past for the Diamondbacks, he does enter off a season-best 11 strikeout performance. Key Trends: - Arizona is a terrible 1-8 (-8.8 units) this year off a loss to a division rival as a favorite. - San Francisco is 13-12 (+4.9 units) in the month of June. The verdict: In a contest which I expect to be decided late or in extra frames, I’m grabbing the home side on the run line! |
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06-29-19 | Dodgers v. Rockies +1.5 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 23 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Rockies run-line. Colorado won 13-9 as a sizeable underdog last night and it’s combined to score 134 runs with its opponents over the past six games at Coors Field. While offensive production has been plentiful of late in Denver, I think the stage is finally set for more of a “duel” on Saturday night. LA goes with ace Clayton Kershaw (7-1, 3.07 ERA), while the home side counters with Jon Gray (8-5, 3.92). Kershaw is 10-4 with a 4.57 ERA and one shutout at Coors lifetime. In seven starts at home Gray is 2-1 with a 4.14 ERA vs. the Dodgers. Key Trends: - LA is interestingly just 2-3 (-2.6 units) this year after nine straight games vs. division rivals. - Colorado is 16-9 (+10 units) this year after three straight vs. a division rival. The verdict: I think these veteran starters are a “wash,” and in a scenario like that, I absolutely feel that the value swings to the undervalued underdog. That said, I’m going to lay the very reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance, just to be safe! |
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06-24-19 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks +1.5 | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 30 h 58 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 6* play on the D-Backs on the run-line. Yes, Zach Greinke (8-3, 2.91 ERA) has struggled vs. his former team, but he comes in on top form and I expect him to give Clayton Kershaw (7-1, 2.85) everything he can handle. The Diamondbacks are three games under .500, while the Dodgers are 26 games over the .500 mark. Clearly Arizona won’t be lacking for motivation here. And neither will Greinke. Key Trends: - Arizona is 9-4 (+5.2 units) this year after a win by two runs or less. - The Diamondbacks are a money-making 19-15 (+5.2 units) this season vs. clubs with winning records. The verdict: In a contest which I envision being decided late or even in extras, I’m going to lay the very reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Play on the Diamondbacks on the run line! |
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06-21-19 | BC +4 v. Edmonton | Top | 23-39 | Loss | -109 | 82 h 12 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the BC Lions. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - The return of Mike Reilly to Edmonton. This is the second game of the season and Reilly’s first age back in Edmonton since leaving to Vancouver via free agency in the off-season. Reilly posted over 26,000 passing yards and 143 TD’s in 94 career starts for the Eskimos and I believe he’ll be out to make a statement (despite losing to the Blue Bombers in Week 1, Reilly looked good; his favorite target was WR Bryan Burham, who had five catches for 153 yards.) Edmonton posted a 32-25 home win over lowly Montreal, but I think that Eskimos’ QB Trevor Harris will have a much more difficult time vs. this opportunistic Lions defense. Key Trends: - Last week Edmonton committed 12 penalties for 118 yards, while also turning the ball over three times, including two fumbles. The verdict: I do indeed think that with the Reilly under center that the Lions have a legitimate shot at taking this contest outright, but that said in the end I’ll recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on BC! |
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06-20-19 | Saskatchewan +5 v. Ottawa | Top | 41-44 | Win | 100 | 58 h 10 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the Roughriders. The Roughriders play their second straight on the road to open the 2019 season and they’ll be laying everything on the line here as they try to avoid the 0-2 hole. Saskatchewan won’t be taking anything for granted here either after the RedBlacks swept both games last year. The Riders lost the services of Zach Collaros, so Cody Fajardo gets the call in this one. Expect to see a heavy dose of Riders’ RB William Powell this week, who had a big game in a losing cause to Hamilton, carrying it 20 times for 104 yards. Ottawa lost several key players from the team that appeared in the Grey Cup last year, but it still lmanaged to beat Calgary 32-28 in Week 1. QB Dominique Davis had three rushing TD’s, but he also had four INT’s. Can anyone say “letdown spot?!” The verdict: Everything that could go right for Ottawa in Week 1, did. Despite losing Collaros, I think the desperate Riders have a legitimate shot at taking this one outright (that said, grab as many points as you can!) |
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06-18-19 | Giants v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 0-9 | Win | 100 | 29 h 9 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the Dodgers run-line. I think LA bounces back big after yesterday’s upset loss. Tyler Beede looked good for San Francisco, but I don’t think that Shaun Anderson (2-1, 3.97 ERA) will fair as well today. Anderson has been decent no doubt, most recently holding the Friars to two runs over six innings on June 12th. Anderson’s been good, but Dodgers’ veteran Clayton Kershaw (6-1, 3.13) has been great this year; note that he’s gone at least six innings in every start this year and at least seven in five of 11 (note as well that Kershaw is 22-11 with a 1.72 ERA in 3330 1/3’s innings vs. San Fran lifetime.) Key Trends: - San Francisco is just 8-13 vs. southpaws this season. - LA is 24-6 as a home favorite of -150 or higher this season. - The Dodgers are 9-2 this year revenging a loss vs. an opponent as a home favorite. The verdict: This one has “blowout” written all over it. Lay the 1.5 runs for the near pick em price! |
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06-13-19 | Raptors v. Warriors -3.5 | Top | 114-110 | Loss | -105 | 62 h 24 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the Golden State Warriors. I had a three game report in Game 5 as well and I played the exact same three plays. The Warriors for the FIRST HALF, Golden State for the game and the “over.” What more can be said about these two teams which hasn’t literally been said a million times by every talking head out there? These team’s strengths and weaknesses are well know to even the most casual basketball fan and if you’re wagering on this contest, you don’t need me to break down individual player match ups or to tell you how many rebounds Draymond Green had in Game 5. I like Golden State in Game 5 whether KD played or not, and I do here as well. I simply can’t see Toronto taking all three games from the Stephen Curry in his own building. The improved play of DeMarcus Cousins in Game 5 is big heading into Game 6. I like the Warriors for the FIRST HALF, Golden State for the game and the OVER in Game 6. Key Trends: - The Raptors are inexplicably just 9-13 ATS this season when playing with two days rest. - Golden State is a perfect 3-0 ATS the L2 years when facing elimination in a series. The verdict: Toronto’s opportunity to put this series away is going to have to wait until Game 7. Lay the points! |
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06-13-19 | Saskatchewan +2.5 v. Hamilton | Top | 17-23 | Loss | -107 | 56 h 58 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the Saskatchewan Roughriders. Zach Collaros is coming off a poor season for the Ti-Cats, so he’ll be extra motivated here for his new team the Roughriders on Opening Night. The Ti-Cats have Jeremiah Masoli under center and while he had a big campaign overall last year, Saskatchewan’s elite defense dominated in the two games last year, holding him to 517 total yards with zero TD’s and two INT’s. Key Trends: - The Ti-Cats are just 7-16-2 ATS in their last 25 home games. - The Roughriders have covered in 28 of the past 39 between the clubs. The verdict: I think that Saskatchewan’s superior defense is the difference maker in the 2019 Opener. Grab the points! |
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06-10-19 | Warriors +3 v. Raptors | 106-105 | Win | 101 | 35 h 56 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 8* play on the Golden State Warriors. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Do or die. Now or never? The Warriors, whether they play with Kevin Durant or not tonight, clearly won’t be going down without a fight here. And I think that’s going to be more than enough to tip the scales in their favor. Note that GS is 2-0 ATS in its last two when facing elimination. Key Trends: - Golden State is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 following a home loss. - Toronto is just 9-17 ATS this season after covering three of its last four vs. the spread. - The verdict: I think Toronto has difficulty closing out Golden State here. Grab as many points as you can! |
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06-10-19 | Cardinals v. Marlins +1.5 | 4-1 | Loss | -150 | 26 h 41 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 9* play on the Marlins run line. Sandy Alcantara (3-5, 3.80 ERA) gets the nod for St. Louis, while the visitors go with Michael Wacha (3-2, 6.30.) Alcantara comes in on top form, having allowed just one run over his past two starts, posting a tiny 0.69 ERA over his last 13 innings of work. Wacha’s had success vs. the Fish in the past, but he’s been terrible overall this year, actually losing his spot in the rotation after allowing seven runs to the Royals on May 22nd. Key Trends: - St. Louis is just 3-7 (-6.3 units) this season after scoring one run or less. - Miami is already 3-2 (+4.4 units) this year after three straight losses vs. a division rival. The verdict: These starters are moving in opposite directions and the Marlins have been playing much better as team overall as well. In a contest which see being decided late or even in extras, I’m going to lay the very reasonable mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 runs. Play on the Marlins on the run line! |
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