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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-08-24 | Purdue v. Connecticut UNDER 145.5 | Top | 60-75 | Win | 100 | 20 h 35 m | Show |
#675/676 ASA PLAY ON Under – Purdue vs UConn, Monday at 9:20 PM ET - We anticipate this to be a slower paced game with limited possessions which will limit scoring. UConn ranks 328th in adjusted tempo and Purdue is outside the top 200. UConn’s games in the tourney have averaged 65 possessions per game and in their last 2 games vs 2 of the fastest paced teams in the country, Illinois & Bama, they had 69 and 63 possessions respectively. Purdue’s game vs NC State on Saturday had only 64 possessions and the Boilers have averaged 65 possessions per game in their 5 NCAA tourney tilts. Both of these defenses are playing at a high level right now with only 1 of their 10 combined NCAA tourney opponents reaching 70 points. That was UConn’s game on Saturday vs Alabama who came in averaging 90 PPG and only scored 72 despite shooting 48% from beyond the arc. Purdue is allowing just 60 PPG in the Big Dance while the Huskies are allowing just 57 PPG. Purdue’s games in the tourney are 4-1 to the Under and averaging 140 total points and that includes a game they scored 106 by themselves vs Utah State. Take out that one outlier and their games are averaging 131 total points. UConn is 5-0 to the Under in the tourney with their games averaging 139 total points and that includes 2 games vs Bama & Illinois, two of the top offensive teams in the nation who are both very fast paced. Only 3 of the last 12 National Championship games have topped 145 total points. Last year’s National Championship game totaled 135 points (this UConn team vs San Diego State) and we project a similar total on Monday. Defense and slow pace on Monday lead to an Under. |
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04-06-24 | NC State v. Purdue UNDER 146.5 | Top | 50-63 | Win | 100 | 40 h 14 m | Show |
#673/674 ASA PLAY ON Under 146.5 Points – NC State vs Purdue, Saturday 6:05 PM ET - Tough shooting venue here in Arizona (State Farm Stadium home of the AZ Cardinals) with a huge indoor football stadium hosting the Final 4. Neither team is really fast paced with NC State ranking 156th in possessions per game and Purdue 184th . Both have slowed the pace even more in the tourney with none of NC State’s 4 games getting to 70 possessions (including an OT game vs Oakland) while Purdue’s NCAA games have averaged 65 possessions per game. Both defenses are playing at a high level right now with neither allowing 70 points (in regulation) in their 8 combined NCAA tournament games. Purdue’s defense has been really solid all season long ranking in the top 20 in defensive efficiency and NC State’s defense has really played well down the stretch ranking 37th nationally in efficiency since the start of the ACC tourney (8 game sample). In the Dance NC State has 67, 66, 58 and 64 points and that includes 3 opponents who rank in the top 30 in offensive efficiency (Duke, Marquette, and Texas Tech). On the other end we think the Wolfpack will have problems scoring inside vs Purdue and Zach Edey who will make it much more difficult for DJ Burns, who had 29 points vs Duke, to score inside. That means NCSU will have to be lights out from beyond the arc which is not their strength (143rd in 3 point FG%). In their last 2 games Purdue held Tennessee (28th in offensive efficiency) to 66 points and Gonzaga (5th in offensive efficiency) to 68 points. Both of these teams have gone Under the total in 3 of their 4 NCAA tournament games and another is on the way Saturday. Under is our play. |
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04-04-24 | Indiana State v. Seton Hall OVER 158.5 | Top | 77-79 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 12 m | Show |
#681/682 ASA PLAY ON Over the Total – Indiana State vs Seton Hall, Thursday at 7 PM ET - Two peaking offenses should run this game into the 160’s on Thursday night. Seton Hall has scored 91 and 84 points in their last 2 games vs UNLV and UGA who both rank higher than Indiana State in defensive efficiency. The Pirates have averaged at least 1.14 PPP in each of their last 3 games and in their 4 NIT games they’ve shot 48% overall and 39% from beyond the arc. And every defense they’ve faced in the NIT to this point is better than ISU’s defense efficiency wise. The Hall will put up points in this game. We think the Sycamores will as well. They are a fantastic shooting team ranking 12th nationally in offensive efficiency, 1st in eFG%, 11th in 3 point FG%, and 3rd in 2 point FG%. In their 4 NIT games they’ve gotten to 100 points twice and they are averaging 90.5 PPG in those 4 games. While Seton Hall’s defense is solid (35th in defensive efficiency), State just put up 100 on Utah (top 50 defense) and 85 on Cincinnati (top 20 nationally in defensive efficiency). Indiana State likes to play fast on offense (37th nationally in adjusted tempo) and while Seton Hall’s year long numbers aren’t overly fast, they have decided to up the tempo in the NIT. In fact, since the start of the NIT tourney, the Hall ranks 45th nationally in tempo. We expect plenty of offensive possessions in this one. We don’t expect many “lost” points at the FT line in this one either with ISU hitting 80% of their freebies on the year and Seton Hall making 78%. The players have raved about the shooting lines and bouncy floor at Hinkle Field House saying it’s definitely a shooter’s gym. If the semi finals were any indication (190 total points and 151 total points) they were correct. Over is the call. |
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04-02-24 | Georgia +4.5 v. Seton Hall | Top | 67-84 | Loss | -107 | 19 h 57 m | Show |
#663 ASA PLAY ON Georgia + the points over Seton Hall, Tuesday at 9:30 PM ET - We like UGA’s success and path through this NIT much more than Seton Hall. The Bulldogs had to go on the road and beat both Wake Forest and Ohio State, 2 teams rated higher than Seton Hall in KenPom’s rankings, while the Pirates played all 3 NIT games at home. The average rating of the teams Seton Hall has played in the NIT is 82nd (all at home) while Georgia’s opponents have an average ranking of 44th and 2 of those games were on the road. We’d be a bit concerned if Georgia was playing another road game without much rest but that isn’t the case as they’ve had a full week off since beating Ohio State in Columbus. They won those 2 road games with starting center Tchewa out (8 PPG / 6 RPG) with an illness (played 5 minutes vs OSU and didn’t play vs WF) and he is back at full strength. The Dogs have been pretty solid away from home this year winning 7 games (away/neutral) while scoring 74.5 PPG and allowing 76.5 PPG. They do have a negative PPG margin away from home, but as you can see it’s close. Seton Hall has played only once away from home since March 2nd and that was in the Big East Tourney at MSG in New York City which is only 17 miles from campus. The Hall wasn’t great away from home this year scoring just 67 PPG while allowing 74.5 PPG and their shooting percentage dropped more than 5% on the road (42%). Georgia has been undervalued down the stretch covering 7 straight games and as a dog this year they are 12-8 ATS. We have this game power rated closer to pick-em so we’ll take the value with a surging Georgia team. |
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03-31-24 | NC State v. Duke -7 | Top | 76-64 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 8 m | Show |
#658 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Duke - the points over NC State, Sunday at 5 PM ET - We were wrong on Duke Friday night as we thought Houston would really limit them offensively which they did with the Devils scoring only 54 points. Problem was, Houston lost their top offensive player and one of the best guards in the nation, Jamal Shead, to an injury in the first half and they could get nothing going offensively after that. We pretty confident that injury cost the Cougars the game (lost 54-51). Either way, we’re now getting solid line value with Duke in this spot vs a team they’ve faced twice this season. Just 2 weeks ago in the ACC tourney, the Blue Devils were an 11 point favorite vs this NC State team and now they are laying only 6.5 on a neutral court. When the faced off @ NC State the number was the same as it is here with Duke as a 6 to 6.5 point true road favorite. The 2 teams split their games with Duke winning at NCSU by 15 and then losing by 5 in the ACC tournament. In their loss 2 weeks ago, Duke shot just 5 of 20 from deep (25%) while the Wolfpack hit 44% of their 3’s which was the difference in the game. Duke is the much better offense and better shooting team by quite a wide margin (13th best 3 points shooting team in the country / NCSU is 134th) so we expect those tables to turn here. In the 2 games Duke outrebounded NC State in both and had fewer turnovers in the 2 games combined. If the shooting gets back to form where the Blue Devils should hold a decent edge, they should cover this number. NC State is a bit fortunate to be here as Marquette was a terrible 4 of 31 (13%) from 3 point land with the majority being wide open looks. Just a bad shooting night for the Golden Eagles. Defensively they held the Pack to under 1.00 PPP but just couldn’t make an open shot. Speaking of 3 point variance, in their 3 NCAA tourney games, Wolfpack opponents (Texas Tech, Oakland, and Marquette) have combined to make only 23 of 97 shots from deep (23.7%). That’s against an NCSU defense that ranks 280th defending the arc. We anticipate the Devils drastically improving those numbers on Sunday. Duke gets a shot at some fairly quick revenge here and NC State is now officially overvalued on their 8 game winning streak. Lay it with Duke. |
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03-30-24 | Clemson +3 v. Alabama | Top | 82-89 | Loss | -107 | 19 h 54 m | Show |
#653 ASA PLAY ON Clemson + the points over Alabama, Saturday at 8:45 PM ET - We went against Bama on Thursday night when they faced UNC. The Tide pulled out a tight 2 point win but the Heels shot just 38% overall vs a Crimson Tide defense that was rated by far the worst remaining in the Sweet 16 (104th in efficiency). The Heels attempted 11 more field goals and made 1 more FT but lost the game because of their poor shooting effort. Alabama shot 48% overall and 42% from beyond the arc and despite those shooting numbers which were much better than UNC’s their largest lead of the game was just 5 points. Bama is one of the fastest paced teams in the nation and there is no way Clemson gets into a run and gun game with them. The Tigers are a slower paced team and have tamed a few other fast paced teams during this tourney. On Thursday they took down Arizona (fast paced and top 11 in both offensive and defensive efficiency) and led pretty much throughout. In fact, the Wildcats largest lead of the game was just 1 point. Prior to that Clemson rolled a very good Baylor team who ranked 6th nationally in offensive efficiency at the time. Their defense has been outstanding holding New Mexico to 56 points (Lobos average 81 PPG), Baylor to 64 points (Bears average 80 PPG), and Arizona to 72 points (Wildcats average 87 PPG). These 2 already met this season and Clemson beat Bama on the road by 8 points, one of only two home losses this year for the Tide. The Tigers have proven they can get it done away from home with 12 wins this season (road & neutral) including some very impressive wins @ Alabama, @ North Carolina, and @ Pitt. One of their road losses was a last second 1 point loss @ Duke in which the Devils made 2 FT’s with under 1 second remaining to win. These 2 teams have the exact same 24-11 record with each facing top 20 strength of schedules. We have these 2 rated dead even on a neutral court so the value is with the dog. Take Clemson. |
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03-30-24 | Illinois v. Connecticut OVER 155 | Top | 52-77 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 13 m | Show |
#651/652 ASA PLAY ON Over the Total – Illinois vs UConn, Saturday at 6 PM ET - We have the 2 most efficient offenses in college basketball facing off here and we look for a high scoring game. Connecticut ranks #1 in adjusted efficiency (1.27 PPP) and Illinois ranks #2 (1.26 PPP) and they’ve been even better the 2nd half of the season with both averaging 1.32 PPP since mid February (#1 and #2 nationally in that time period as well). Both average over 80 PPG and both are very balanced scoring from inside and outside so both are tough to guard. Illinois has scored at least 80 points in 16 of their last 21 games. The Huskies have scored at least 80 points in 8 of their last 14 games and they are facing an Illinois defense that would rank as the 3rd worst defense in the Big East. Both teams protect the ball very well which will limit wasted possessions and both are among the top offensive rebounding teams in the nation which should lead to a number of extra possessions. We were on the Illinois vs Iowa State over 147 on Thursday night. That was an ISU defense that was ranked #1 nationally in efficiency and isn’t nearly as good offensively as this UConn team. They finished with 141 points (72-69 Illinois win) but did so shooting a combined 40% overall and missing 18 combined FTs! That game easily could have been in the 150’s. UConn just scored 82 points on a slow paced San Diego State team that ranks 11th nationally in defensive efficiency. Now they face an Illinois team that is fast paced and is barely inside the top 100 in defensive efficiency. The Huskies will score here and while they’ve been very good defensively, we think Illinois puts up plenty of points as well as they’ve done on pretty much everyone. There are 4 defenses in the Big 10 ranked inside the top 20 nationally in efficiency (MSU, Rutgers, Maryland, Purdue) and Illinois averaged 77 PPG in those 8 contests. Both teams fully capable of reach 80+ points here and we’ll grab the Over. |
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03-29-24 | Duke v. Houston -3.5 | Top | 54-51 | Loss | -120 | 43 h 55 m | Show |
#646 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Houston -3.5 over Duke, Friday at 9:40 PM ET - Houston is the type of team Duke will struggle with. The Cougs are an in your face defense that plays very physical. The rank 2nd nationally in defensive efficiency and eFG% allowed and 3rd in defensive turnover rate. This will be the best defense Duke has faced this season by quite a wide margin. UNC was the best defense (efficiency wise) in the ACC and they handled Duke twice fairly easily. The Heels don’t create turnovers however (outside the top 300). The ACC had one team rank in the top 25 in defensive turnover rate, Florida State, and in their game vs the Noles, Duke (finished 7th in the ACC in offensive turnover rate) turned the ball over on a whopping 25% of their possessions. Now they get a Houston defense that combines efficiency and turnover rate at the highest level. Duke rolled through their first 2 opponents, Vermont (13 seed) and JMU (12 seed), but they now take a huge step up in competition. Houston got their scare in the round of 32 topping a red hot Texas A&M team in OT. The Cougars led that game by 13 with just over 3:00 minutes remaining before the Aggies made their crazy comeback. Much is made of Houston’s outstanding defense, but their offense ranks 14th in efficiency so this team is very balanced. They are 32-4 on the season facing the 22nd most difficult schedule (Duke has faced the 69th SOS) and only 1 of their 32 wins has come by less than 4 points. Duke has faced 3 games this season vs teams in the top 10 per KenPom and they are 0-3 SU in those games (Houston ranked #2). The Devils beat up on the teams they should but they tend to struggle vs high level teams. They are just 5-4 SU in Quad 1 games this season while Houston is 17-4 SU vs Quad 1 opponents. On the similar note, Duke is 0-2 ATS as a dog this season (losses vs UNC & Wake) and 0-4 ATS getting points the last 2 seasons. In regards to the NCAA tourney, Duke beats lower seeded teams in the Dance but when they step up, the struggle. IN fact the last time Duke beat a higher seed in the NCAA tourney was 1994! This veteran Houston team was ousted in the Sweet 16 last year and they are on a mission this season. It’s a semi home game for Houston (in Dallas), they are the better, more physical team and we like them to get the win and cover on Friday. |
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03-29-24 | Gonzaga v. Purdue OVER 154.5 | Top | 68-80 | Loss | -110 | 41 h 40 m | Show |
#639/640 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 154.5 Points – Gonzaga vs Purdue, Friday at 7:35 PM ET - We have two of the top offenses in the nation facing off here with Purdue ranking 3rd in offensive efficiency and Gonzaga ranking 7th. As you might expect they are also 2 of the top shooting teams in the country both ranking in the top 15 and they average 85 PPG (Gonzaga) and 64 PPG on the season. This should be a fairly high possession game as the Zags like to play fast (top 90 in adjusted tempo) and Purdue, while not ranked quite as high in that metric, is fine with playing up tempo. When these 2 met back in November, Purdue won the game 73-63, but there were 73 possessions in that game so they had their chances. Just a poor shooting night for Gonzaga in general at 38% which is way below their season average of 52% which is #2 in the nation. The combined 3 point percentage in that game was also a very poor 20% (10 of 49 overall) from 2 top shooting teams (Purdue is #1 on the nation in 3 point percentage). The Bulldogs offense is humming to say the least. Since mid February they rank 2nd nationally in efficiency and #1 in eFG%. They’ve scored at least 80 points in 16 of their last 20 games and 2 of the games they did not were vs St Mary’s a top 5 defense that plays at one of the slowest rates in the country. Purdue is nearly impossible to defend with Edey controlling the middle and kicking out for 3’s if doubled and the Boilers are the top 3 point shooting team in the nation hitting almost 41%. The Zags strength is not on the defensive end ranking outside the top 40 in efficiency and even worst outside the top 170 defending the arc. This will be a keep up game in our opinion. Both teams will score points and their opponents will have to keep up on the scoreboard. Over is the call. |
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03-28-24 | Illinois v. Iowa State OVER 145.5 | Top | 72-69 | Loss | -115 | 46 h 41 m | Show |
#631/632 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 145.5 Points – Illinois vs Iowa State, Thursday at 10:10 PM ET - Illinois just continues to put big points on the board no matter who they play. After scoring 85 in the round of 32 vs Duquesne (slow paced team with top 30 defense) the Illini have now put up at least 80 points in 16 of their last 20 games. We realize ISU has a high level defense (24th nationally in FG% allowed) but we like Illinois to still be successful offensively. Against the best defensive teams in the Big 10 the Illini offense was still high level scoring 80 on Michigan State (11th nationally in defensive efficiency), 86 on Rutgers (4th in defensive efficiency), and 85 on Maryland (12th in defensive efficiency). Illinois ranks #1 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency (1.26 PPP) and we have our doubts that ISU can slow them down. This is going to be a game that the Cyclones have to put points on the board to keep up. We think they will. As much is made about their defensive prowess, let’s remember Iowa State averages 75 PPG and they are top 50 nationally in terms of offensive efficiency. They will do well on that end of the court vs an Illinois defense that simply isn’t very good. They rank 92nd nationally in defensive efficiency (2nd worst defense remaining) and since mid February this defense is rated just 188th in efficiency. We were on ISU vs Washington State Under in the round of 32 which was a winner but that was a Wazzou team that plays great defense and slows the pace. Illinois likes to play fast and Iowa State is much faster paced this season (206th) than last season (328th) so they are not necessarily a “slow” team anymore. Both offenses will have success here and we’ll take the Over on Thursday night. |
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03-28-24 | Alabama v. North Carolina -4 | Top | 89-87 | Loss | -110 | 45 h 18 m | Show |
#636 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* North Carolina -4 over Alabama, Thursday at 9:40 PM ET - UNC is the much more balanced team in this one ranking in the top 16 nationally in both offensive and defensive efficiency. While Bama has a great offense, their defense is by far the worst remaining in the Sweet 16 ranking outside the top 100 in both efficiency and eFG% allowed. The Tide simply wasn’t playing well down the stretch and they’ve been fortunate to get to the Sweet 16. Since mid February they rank just 49th nationally in team efficiency (per Bart Torvik) and 163rd in defensive efficiency. UNC ranks 9th and 10th in the nation per those 2 metrics during that time period. Prior to the Big Dance, Alabama had lost 4 of their previous 6 games and one of their two wins during that stretch was in OT at home vs Arkansas, one of the worst teams in the SEC. In the Dance they opened with College of Charleston whose defense ranked outside the top 200 in eFG% and 3 point FG % allowed which matches up very poorly vs the Alabama offense (Bama shot 60% for the game). Even with that, C of C lost but put up nearly 100 points on Bama (109-96 final). Over the weekend they topped Grand Canyon in what was a close game throughout (CG led with 6:00 remaining in the game) despite the Antelopes missing 14 FT’s and making only 2 of their 20 three point attempts and hitting only 32% of their shots overall! UNC comes in off 2 easy wins including topping Michigan State, easily the best opponent either of these 2 have played in the Dance, by a final score of 85-69. MSU’s defense was playing fantastic leading into that game (7th nationally in defensive efficiency since mid February and 11th for the entire season) but the Heels ate them up for 85 points on 1.20 PPP. What are they going to do to a bad Bama defense? On offense the Tide don’t create turnovers but they thrive on offensive rebounding for 2nd chances. Versus Grand Canyon the corralled 43% of their misses giving them a number of 2nd chance points which gave them the edge along with CG’s terrible shooting night. That won’t happen here vs a great rebounding team in UNC who ranks 6th nationally in defensive rebounding. UNC was 14-6 SU this season in road/neutral games while Alabama had a losing record in that situation. We’ve been hoping that Alabama would make it here so we had a chance to fade them vs a high level opponent. Take North Carolina to roll in this game. |
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03-27-24 | VCU v. Utah -6 | Top | 54-74 | Win | 100 | 44 h 13 m | Show |
#624 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Utah -6 over VCU, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - VCU has made a very impressive run through the NIT to this point but this is where it ends. Not only has this team been on the road for 3 NIT games already (this will be the 4th), but if we go back to the A10 tourney (Brooklyn, NY) and the end of the regular season this will be the Rams 8th straight road game. Those games have been crammed into a short time period as well. In fact, since the start of the A10 tourney, this will be VCU’s 7th straight game away from home in just 15 days. In the NIT alone, they’ve already traveled to Philadelphia, then Tampa on Sunday, and now Salt Lake City where they’ll play in high altitude for the first time this season. Not ideal for a team that has played 7 games in 15 days. Utah, on the other hand, will be playing their 3rd straight home game and just their 3rd game in 13 days since losing to Colorado in the Pac 12 tourney back on March 14th. VCU’s defense has carried them to this point holding Villanova & South Florida to 65 points or less but now they face a Utah offense that has scored 81 & 84 points in their 2 NIT games. At home the Utes are 16-2 on the year with 1 of those losses coming vs Sweet 16 participant Arizona and that loss was in triple OT. Utah hits over 49% of their shots and 39% of their 3’s at home while averaging 85 PPG. Tired legs made worse in high altitude for the Rams will be a problem both slowing down Utah’s offense along with trying to keep up and make shots on the other end. Lay it with Utah. |
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03-26-24 | Georgia +9 v. Ohio State | Top | 79-77 | Win | 100 | 18 h 20 m | Show |
#609 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Georgia +9 over Ohio State, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Georgia has had an impressive run this far in the NIT beating Xavier at home and then topping Wake Forest (the highest rated team in the NIT per KenPom) on the road on Sunday. We’re a little concerned that the Dogs have to play 2 days later on the road again, but this is a deep team that ranks 77th in bench minutes which helps in this case. In Sunday’s win UGA played 9 players double digit minutes and only 1 logged 30+ minutes. Wake was without starting guard Sallis in that game which obviously helped, however the Dogs were at a disadvantage as well with starting center Tchewa who was sick on Sunday. They are hoping he’s back and ready on Tuesday @ OSU. The Buckeyes are a bit banged up themselves. New head coach Diebler, who had the interim tag removed last week, gave them a day off after beating Va Tech over the weekend to try and recover from some of their ailments. Their best player, PG and leader Thornton (16 PPG), took a shot to the leg in the Va Tech win and he is questionable here. OSU won and covered vs the Hokies but they weren’t overly impressive getting outshot percentage wise from the field and from 3 point land, however the Bucks made 29 FT’s to just 16 for VT. Despite the large disparity at the line, OSU only won the game by 8 points. Georgia has proven a decent road team with near .500 record in true road games (5-6 SU) and only 2 of those losses came by more than 9 points (OSU -8.5 in this one) vs NCAA tourney teams Auburn & Mississippi State. OSU has won their first 2 NIT games by 5 points vs Cornell and by 8 vs Va Tech with a +21 made FT disparity (combined in those 2 games) yet both were close. Take the points. |
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03-24-24 | VCU v. South Florida UNDER 143.5 | Top | 70-65 | Win | 100 | 18 h 56 m | Show |
#845/846 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 143.5 Points – VCU vs South Florida, Sunday at 7:30 PM ET - Our power ratings have this total set in the high 130’s so some solid value on the Under here. Both defenses are better than the opposing offenses in this one. VCU and USF have defenses that rank in the top 45 in eFG% and both are in the top 40 defending the arc which is key here. Both offenses rely heavily on the 3 point shot with each ranking outside the top 350 in percentage of points from inside the arc. That’s a tough spot for the offenses facing formidable 3 point defenses and we anticipate tired legs which affects jump shooting teams more than anything. VCU is playing their 6th game in 12 days (all away from home) and USF if playing their 4th game in 10 days. We wouldn’t look for either team to light it up from deep in this game. Both are poor offensive rebounding teams so 2nd chance points should be minimal. VCU is a very slow paced team and they get their tempo for the most part. Especially down the stretch where they faced 2 fast paced teams in the A10 tourney (UMass & St Joes) and those 2 games ended with only 61 and 63 offensive possessions. The Rams have played 7 straight games where the total ended 140 or less and we look for another here. We like the Under in this NIT battle. |
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03-24-24 | Grand Canyon v. Alabama OVER 168.5 | Top | 61-72 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 40 m | Show |
#839/840 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 168.5 Points – Alabama vs Grand Canyon, Sunday at 7:10 PM ET - Two fast paced teams with Bama ranking 4th nationally in possessions per game and Grand Canyon ranking 114th. The Antelopes are actually very similar offensively (tempo, PPP, eFG%) to Bama’s first round opponent College of Charleston and we know how that one turned out (Bama 109 to 96 final score). We were impressed with Grand Canyon’s offense in their NCAA opener vs St Mary’s where they put up 75 points on the Gaels who are one of the slowest paced teams in the nation and a top 5 defense efficiency wise. Now they face a fast paced team that struggles defensively with the Crimson Tide ranking 117th in defensive efficiency, 141st in eFG% allowed, and 353rd in scoring defense giving up 82 PPG. We look for GC to have success on offense tonight. On the other end, Bama is just an offensive juggernaut. They rank 3rd nationally in efficiency, 5th in FG’s made per game, 3rd in 3 pointers made per game and #1 nationally in scoring putting up 91 PPG. With a great offense and suspect defense, Bama’s games have averaged 172 total points this season. Here’s a crazy stat…In Alabama’s last 10 games, at least 1 team (Bama or their opponent) has scored 100+ points and the 2 prior to that one of the teams scored at least 99 points. Thus in 9 of their last 12 games, someone has scored at least 99 points. These 2 have combined to go 43-22-1 to the Over this season. This is a high total for a reason. Over is the play. |
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03-24-24 | James Madison +7.5 v. Duke | Top | 55-93 | Loss | -109 | 16 h 48 m | Show |
#827 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* James Madison +7.5 over Duke, Sunday at 5:15 PM ET - Impressive performance by JMU on Friday dominating a good Wisconsin team despite the Dukes shooting only 41% overall and 29% from deep, well below their season averages. They were extremely aggressive defensively turning the Badgers over a season high 19 times from a team that averages less than 10 TO’s per game. The refs let them play in that game and if they do the same here, JMU has a very good shot at the straight up win. Duke doesn’t handle aggressive, physical play very well in our opinion. The 2 teams in the ACC who are similar to JMU as far as defensive turnover rate are FSU & Syracuse and Duke had 28 combined turnovers in their 2 games with those teams. On Friday the Blue Devils faced a Vermont team that rarely turns teams over (304th nationally) and they still turned the ball over 15% of their possessions. Vermont’s offense was terrible with a 0.78 PPP and they were dominated on the boards as we expected. Duke also made 18 more FT’s in the game which was obviously significant in a 17 point win. They won’t out physical JMU and their won’t be any domination on the glass for Duke in this game. Our one fear is the refs call this one tighter than the Wisconsin game (it is Duke and they tend to get the benefit of the doubt from the zebras) but even if that happens we still like James Madison to hang around. Duke wasn’t playing great entering this tourney (3-3 SU record their previous 6 games) but had a favorable draw with Vermont who isn’t overly physical and not a great shooting team this year. That’ changes on Sunday. JMU has only 3 losses this season and only one by more than 6 points. Take the points. |
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03-23-24 | Oakland v. NC State -6.5 | Top | 73-76 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 55 m | Show |
#796 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* NC State -6.5 over Oakland, Saturday at 7:10 PM ET - We faded NC State on Thursday vs a very good Texas Tech team thinking they would have some lingering affects from their 5 games in 5 days ACC tourney run the previous weekend. Well they didn’t look sluggish as they rolled to a double digit win over the Red Raiders. NCSU now takes a big step down in competition from what they’ve been playing to this point. The Wolfpack have now won 6 straight games including wins over teams ranked 8th, 9th, 32nd, 71st and 86th per KenPom. They won all but 1 of those games by at least 8 points. Now they face an Oakland team ranked 130th and to put that in perspective that would put them as the 2nd worst team in the ACC ahead of only Louisville. We really respect the Grizzlies program and head coach Greg Kampe but they simply shot lights out from deep in their win over Kentucky. They hit nearly 50% of their triples and Jack Gohlke, who’s hitting 36% of this 3’s this season, attempted 20 and made 10 in the win. We don’t see them duplicating that here. They were facing a young Kentucky team with 5 freshman in their rotation playing in their first NCAA tourney. Now they face an NC State team that plays all juniors and seniors. Oakland is a fairly small team with 1 player that is over 6’7 and we don’t think they have anyone to match up with NCSU’s big man Burns who has averaged 16 PPG on 62% shooting during this 6 game run. We’re backed here by a strong round 2 NCAA trend that says teams that win in round 1 as double digit favorites are 4-18 SU (7-15 ATS) in their 2nd game dating back to 2005. NC State moves on to the Sweet 16 with a win and cover here. |
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03-23-24 | Virginia Tech v. Ohio State -3.5 | Top | 73-81 | Win | 100 | 18 h 36 m | Show |
#806 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Ohio State -3.5 over Virginia Tech, Saturday at 7 PM ET - We love the way OSU has played down the stretch this parting ways with head coach Holtmann. The players love interim coach Diebler and he was just named head coach moving forward so we sense some excitement with the players in this program. Since letting Holtmann loose, the Buckeyes have gone 7-2 with one of those losses coming by just 3 points vs Illinois in the Big 10 tourney. That was a game the Bucks led by 10 points midway through the 2nd half. They had a bit of a scare in the opening round of the NIT but held off Cornell 88-83. The Big Red hit 49% of their shots in that game to stay close but OSU dominated the boards with a +17 rebound margin. Saturday they face a Va Tech team that beat Richmond at home in the NIT opener but now must go on the road where they’ve won only 2 games the entire season. The Hokies have a PPG margin of -8 on the road this season and they have only 3 quad 1 wins this season with the most recent coming in January. OSU is 14-4 at home with 3 of their 4 home losses coming vs NCAA tourney teams (Wisconsin, Illinois, and Texas A&M). The Buckeyes average home score this year is 77-67 and we expect them to win and cover on Saturday. Lay the 4 points. |
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03-23-24 | Washington State v. Iowa State UNDER 129 | Top | 56-67 | Win | 100 | 17 h 50 m | Show |
#799/800 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 129 Points – Washington State vs Iowa State, Saturday at 6:10 PM ET - Two of the very best defenses in the nation squaring off in this game. Iowa State ranks 2nd nationally in defensive efficiency and Wazzou ranks 22nd. ISU allows just 61 PPG and that was playing in a Big 12 conference with 5 teams ranked in the top 30 in offensive efficiency. Washington State gives up 66 PPG and they just allowed 61 points to a Drake offense that was rolling coming into the game averaging 84 PPG over their previous 11 games entering last night. The Cougars held a very potent Colorado offense (25th in offensive efficiency) to 58 points in the Pac 12 tourney the their other conference tourney game they limited fast paced Stanford to 62 points. The best offense by far in the Pac 12 was Arizona (88PPG – 3rd most nationally) and in their 2 games vs the Cats they held them 15 points below their season average (74 & 73 points in 2 games vs WSU). This should be a very slow paced game as well with Washington State ranking 312th in adjusted tempo and ISU is middle of the pack in that stat but can play either way, fast or slow. The Cyclones have stepped it up defensively late in the year holding their last 9 opponents to 65 points or less. In the Big 12 tourney they held KSU to 57 points, Baylor (one of the top 3 point shooting teams in the nation & scored 92 in their NCAA opening game) to 62 points and then stopped Houston in their tracks with just 41 points. Neither offense shoots many 3’s both ranking outside the top 290 in percentage of points from deep, so this one will mainly be played inside the arc. With the winner heading to the Sweet 16, both teams lean on their strength here which is defense. Under is the call. |
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03-22-24 | Longwood v. Houston -24 | 46-86 | Win | 100 | 20 h 51 m | Show | |
#774 ASA PLAY ON Houston -24 over Longwood, Friday at 9:20 PM ET - We know the Cougs will come out with their pants on fire so to speak as they are off a terrible, embarrassing 28 point loss in the Big 12 Championship game vs ISU, their worst loss since 2014. That provides great motivation for a team that is already one of the top few teams in the country. Houston’s defense should completely shut down this Longwood offense. The Cougars rank 2nd in the nation in defensive efficiency, 2nd in eFG% allowed, and 3rd at creating turnovers. That’s all bad news for Longwood who doesn’t shoot it very well (240th in eFG%), doesn’t make many 3’s (5.6 per game – 330th nationally) and turns the ball over at a high rated. In fact, the Lancers ranked dead last in the Big South Conference in offensive turnover rate despite the fact the conference doesn’t have a single team ranked inside the top 75 creating turnovers. Much is made of Houston’s defense, but their offense ranks in the top 20 nationally in efficiency and they should have plenty of extra possession on the offensive glass and creating turnovers. Longwood’s defense ranks outside the top 200 in eFG% allowed, 2 point FG% allowed, and 3 point FG% allowed. Houston will put up points here. We highly doubt Longwood gets out of the 40’s in this game which means Houston won’t have to go crazy offensively to cover this game. Low to mid 70’s for the Cougs should be enough to get the cover. |
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03-22-24 | Colorado v. Florida OVER 158.5 | Top | 102-100 | Win | 100 | 15 h 41 m | Show |
#769/770 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 158.5 Points – Colorado vs Florida, Friday at 4 PM ET - This one is going to be a track meet. The Gators rank 18th in adjusted tempo and 10th nationally in offensive possessions per game. While the Buffs aren’t as fast, they aren’t slow either. They are 143rd in possessions per game and in the top 100 in average possession length on offense so they get shots off fairly quickly. Offense is the strength of both teams with Florida ranking 15th in offensive efficiency and Colorado coming in at 27th. They also rank 7th (Florida at 85 PPG) and 38th (Colorado at 79 PPG) in scoring. When they do miss shots, both the Gators and Buffs are among the best offensive rebounding teams in the country so look for a number of 2nd chances on both ends. They both get to the FT line at a decent rate so we should see plenty of FT attempts as well. Neither defense is great a limiting opponents scoring with Florida giving up 78 PPG (323rd nationally) and Colorado allowing 71 PPG (187th). They also both rank outside the top 155 in opponent FG%. The Gators and their opponents have reached at least 155 points in 12 of their last 16 games. The team in the Pac 12 that is most similar to Florida in regards to pace is Arizona. They are almost identical. They are also very close offensive efficiency wise. In their 2 games vs Zona, the Buffs gave up 99 & 97 points and the 2 teams combined for 147 points and 178 points. In their first meeting Arizona did their job offensively but CU scored only 50 points on a terrible 0.69 PPP. The Buffs were without 2 of their best players in that game but when at full strength in the 2nd game the points were abundant. These teams have combined for a 42-27-1 to the Over this year and we project both to get into the 80’s. |
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03-22-24 | Colgate v. Baylor -13.5 | Top | 67-92 | Win | 100 | 25 h 29 m | Show |
#776 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Baylor -13.5 over Colgate, Friday at 12:40 PM ET - Colgate won the Patriot League as they’ve become accustomed to but this is not one of Matt Langel’s better teams. They are ranked 144th per Ken Pom which is their lowest rating to end the regular season since 2018. Last year they were ranked 30 spots higher, made the NCAA tourney and got rolled by another Big 12 team Texas who won by 20 points. The Raiders lost all 4 games vs top 100 competition this season with 3 of those set backs coming by at least 17 points. There isn’t a single team in the Patriot League ranked higher than 260 (besides Colgate) so it’s been a long time since this team faced a high level opponent. Their strength of schedule is 340th and they faced only 6 opponents that fell into quad 1 or 2 this season and finished 1-5 in those games. Baylor is a top 15 team per KenPom and one of the best offensive units in the nation. Unlike Colgate the Bears faced 19 Quad 1 teams this year and finished those games with a winning record (10-9). They are the 6th best 3 point shooting team in the nation with 3 guys in the rotation hitting over 41% from deep. They are also the 6th most efficient offense in the country averaging 1.22 PPP. The Raiders have very solid numbers guarding the arc, however is that because their defense is high level or because they faced mainly poor shooting teams. We’ll lean toward the latter. They didn’t face a single 3 point shooting team in the Patriot that ranked above 120th and the average 3 point percentage rank of the teams they faced in conference play was 235th. Colgate isn’t an overly efficiency offensive team this season (209th) and we just think they’ll have trouble keeping up in this game. We like Baylor to roll. |
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03-22-24 | Northwestern v. Florida Atlantic OVER 142.5 | 77-65 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 24 m | Show | |
#763/764 ASA PLAY ON Over 142.5 Points – Northwestern vs Florida Atlantic, Friday at 12:15 PM ET - Both offenses are superior to the opposing defenses in this game. Both offenses rank inside the top 25 nationally in efficiency per Bart Torvik analytics, while both defenses rank outside the top 60 in efficiency (61st for NW and 133rd for FAU). NW is coming off a game last Friday in which they only scored 61 points on Wisconsin making only 38% of their shots on 0.95 PPP which is way below their season averages. They looked a little worn down to us but now playing just their 2nd game in 13 days we expect a better effort from an offense that averaged 74 PPG this season and ranks 8th in the nation hitting 39% of their triples. Wildcat head coach Chris Collins mentioned last week that he has been very impressed with his offense this season. head coach Chris Collins mentioned he’s been extremely happy with his offense this year. “This year, we’ve been a terrific offense,” Collins said. “We’ve been really efficient and (have) shot the ball incredibly well.” They should have success vs an FAU defense that hasn’t been very good this year allowing 74 PPG. On the other end of the court, the Owls play fast and are very good offensively averaging 83 PPG and they rank 17th in adjusted offensive efficiency. The weakness of Northwestern’s team is absolutely their defense ranking 248th in eFG% allowed and outside the top 300 defending the arc. We expect both teams to have success from 3 point land and in a game that is supposed to be close, FT’s could play a big role down the stretch with fouling late a solid possibility. We like both teams to reach the 70’s in this game and we’ll grab the Over. |
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03-21-24 | Samford v. Kansas -7 | 89-93 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 48 m | Show | |
#755 ASA PLAY ON Kansas -7 over Samford, Thursday at 9:55 PM ET - One of the most popular underdogs in the first round is this Samford team. Because of that we’re getting some really solid line value with the Jayhawks here. We understand Kansas will be without leading scorer McCullar, however he’s been out for half of their last 12 games so it’s not as if they now have to learn how to play without him. The Jayhawks beat 2 tourney teams down the stretch without him topping Baylor and Texas. We get a high level program in KU coming off a terrible outing in the Big 12 tourney as they lost by 20 points to Cincinnati. They played that game without McCullar and starting center Dickinson (18 PPG / 11 RPG) but he is back in the line up for this game. We’re sure the KU players are hearing all of the rumblings about a possible upset, etc… and coming off a bad loss we look for them to play with a chip on their shoulder in this one. If they do, we know Kansas is obviously more talented than Samford. The Bulldogs were an exciting, fast paced team that won the SoCon this season. They faced 2 top 100 teams the entire season and lost to Purdue by 30 and lost to VCU, who did not make the tourney, by 10. They are a small team (349th in height) facing a big KU team that should completely dominate them on the boards. Samford does shoot the 3 ball well, however their 3 point shot percentage drops off drastically when they are away from home (43% at home and 34% on the road). They’ll need to be red hot from deep to have a shot here. In order for a team with lesser talent to have a shot to beat a heavyweight, they need to limit possessions and shorten the game. Giving the superior talent more possessions just gives them a chance to pull away. Samford is a go, go, go team with the 14th highest adjusted tempo in CBB. We don’t think that serves them well here. Take Kansas on Thursday night. |
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03-21-24 | NC State v. Texas Tech -4.5 | Top | 80-67 | Loss | -120 | 21 h 15 m | Show |
#734 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas Tech -4.5 over NC State, Thursday at 9:40 PM ET - The situation heavily favors Tech in this game. The Red Raiders beat BYU by 14 in the opening round of the Big 12 tourney and then lost to Houston last Friday. That means they’ve had nearly a full week to get rest and get ready for this one. NC State, on the other hand, played 5 games in 5 days and won the ACC Tourney to get into the Dance otherwise they were not in. They were underdogs in each of the last 4 games of that tourney and won each. Now playing on Thursday rather than Friday is not ideal for this Wolfpack team that isn’t very deep to begin with. Let’s keep in mind that prior to their 5 game stretch in the ACC tourney, the Wolfpack had only win 4 of their previous 14 games with 3 of those wins coming vs non NCAA tournament teams. Tech was a bit under the radar this year but this team is very good. They finished tied for 3rd place in the ultra tough Big 12 (tied with Baylor) behind only Houston & Iowa State, 2 top 6 teams nationally per KenPom. NC State finished with a losing record in a down ACC and wouldn’t be here at all if not for a 5 game run in the tourney. Texas Tech has better numbers both offensive and defensive efficiency along with better eFG% stats on both ends of the court. The Raiders get to the line more often as well and when they do they hit 78%. They also are one of the top 3 point shooting teams in the country (37th) and they are facing an NCSU defense that ranks 246th defending the arc. Tech played the tougher schedule and has a fairly large advantage in efficiency margin despite that. Tech is the better team and in a much better situation. We’ll lay it. |
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03-21-24 | McNeese State v. Gonzaga -6.5 | Top | 65-86 | Win | 100 | 19 h 46 m | Show |
#750 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Gonzaga -6.5 over McNeese State, Thursday at 7:25 PM ET - Everyone seems to be on McNeese but we like this match up for the Zags. McNeese had played nobody this year with a 336th SOS. They have only played 2 top 100 teams all season and their big win early was vs Michigan and Wolverines ended up being terrible this year so not the huge win we thought it was at the time. McNeese has great defensive numbers, however they’ve played nobody with an offense like the Zags. In fact, not a single offense in the Southland Conference ranks in the top 200 in efficiency so the numbers are skewed. Same on offense for the Cowboys. Very good numbers but the Southland has one defense ranked in the top 200 in efficiency. Gonzaga ranks 9th nationally in offensive efficiency and they are the 2nd best shooting team in the nation at almost 52%. McNeese really thrives on creating turnovers which turn into extra possessions, however Gonzaga doesn’t turn the ball over (14th in the country in offensive turnover rate). The Cowboys are also one of the shortest teams in the Dance and we project Gonzaga will dominate the boards in this one. The Zags are off loss in WCC Championship game and 10 days off to put that behind them. Prior to that had won 14 of 15 including winning @ Kentucky in February. Mark Few is simply a great coach – 24 straight NCAA appearances – with an NCAA tourney record of 41-22 SU. The game is out west in Salt Lake City so Gonzaga should have a strong home court type advantage as their fans travel very well. We like this McNeese team but they haven’t played a single team anywhere close to as good as Gonzaga this year. This number seems light so we’ll lay the 6.5 points. |
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03-21-24 | Oregon v. South Carolina +1 | 87-73 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 6 m | Show | |
#738 ASA PLAY ON South Carolina +1 over Oregon, Thursday at 4 PM ET - Like this bounce back spot for South Carolina after they were trounced by 31 points in the SEC tourney by Auburn. Teams in the NCAA tourney who entire off a 20+ point loss have done very well with a 23-10 ATS record. Because of that loss the Gamecocks have had an extra day to prepare while Oregon had to play 3 games in 3 days (Thurs – Sat) to win the Pac 12 tourney and grab an automatic bid, the only way they were getting into the Dance. After that grueling run in the conference tourney the Ducks now have to travel to the east coast (Pittsburgh) and play on Thursday which isn’t ideal. South Carolina was undervalued all season (23-10 ATS record) and they continue to be entering the NCAA tourney. Oregon was 16-18 ATS this year and because they made a solid run in their conference tourney this is close to a pick-em game when we feel the Gamecocks should be a larger chalk. These 2 teams played similar strength of schedule this year and South Carolina had better offensive and defensive efficiency numbers. SC ranks in the top 85 in FG% allowed and Oregon ranks outside the top 300 in that key category. Both protect the ball well but South Carolina is the better rebounding team which should lead to extra possessions. Against good competition, the Gamecocks also held the edge with a 6-5 record vs Quad 1 teams and 11-5 overall vs Quad 1 & 2 opponents combined. Oregon had a losing record vs Quad 1 opponents and a losing record vs Quad 1 & 2 teams combined. South Carolina is the better team and in a better situation in basically a pick-em game. We’ll take it. |
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03-21-24 | Morehead State +12 v. Illinois | 69-85 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 30 m | Show | |
#743 ASA PLAY ON Morehead State +12 over Illinois, Thursday at 3:10 PM ET - This line opened Illinois -13 and has dropped to -12 so we’ve lost a little line value but still like Morehead State in this spot. Illinois just completed a 3 games in 3 days situation to win the Big 10 tourney on Sunday. Now playing on Thursday as a heavy favorite is not ideal and it very well could be a letdown spot for the Illini after winning the conference tourney. Tough to lay this many points with a defense that simply hasn’t been good vs an offense that can shoot the ball. The Illini defense ranks 98th in efficiency on the year per Bart Torvik, however since February 1st they rank 158th in that metric. They’ve allowed at least 80 points in 9 of their last 13 games. Morehead ranks 35th in the country in eFG% and they hit their 3’s at a 36% rate. They should be able to hit some 3’s in this game vs an Illinois defense that ranks 259th defending the arc. The Eagles are also a veteran team that has good size and rebounds the ball well (top 85 in both offensive and defensive rebounding). They also can get it done defensively holding opponents to 39% from the field this season which ranks as the 6th best mark in the nation. Lastly, Morehead will try and slow this game to a crawl as they rank 335th in adjusted tempo and they’ll do everything they can to keep Illinois out of transition. The Eagles have the recipe to keep this game closer than most think and we’ll take the hefty points. |
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03-21-24 | Wagner v. North Carolina -24.5 | 62-90 | Win | 100 | 15 h 50 m | Show | |
#726 ASA PLAY ON North Carolina -24.5 over Wagner, Thursday at 2:45 PM ET - This is a really rough situation for a Wagner team that played in Dayton on Tuesday night and now must take the court again just 40 hours later in Charlotte. Wagner is lowest rated team per KenPom in this NCAA tourney and they are extremely thin with only 7 scholarship players. They are a terrible shooting team (ranked 358th in FG%) but shot lights out on Tuesday night in their win over Howard. The Seahawks shot 53% in the game (14% higher than their season average of 39%) and they made 47% of their 3’s (15% higher than their season average of 32%). On top of that, because they are so thin they had 3 starters play the full 40 minutes. We look for them to come back down to earth quickly on offense now facing a UNC defense that ranks 6th nationally in efficiency and is coming off a terrible performance vs NC State in the ACC Championship game (an 8 point loss as a 10 point favorite). The Heels will be ready to play after that embarrassing performance last Saturday. UNC averages 82 PPG (23rd nationally) and they are facing a Wagner offense that averages only 63 PPG (345th nationally) despite play in the NEC where over half of the teams rank below 300 in defensive efficiency. Wagner went on a nice run in the NEC tourney to get to the Dance but let’s not forget they finished in 6th place with a losing record during the regular season in that league which ranks as the 2nd worst conference in college hoops. The Heels will have the home crowd here in Charlotte and should dominate from the outset. Blowout here. |
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03-21-24 | Michigan State v. Mississippi State +1.5 | 69-51 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 30 m | Show | |
#730 ASA PLAY ON Mississippi State +1.5 over Michigan State, Thursday at 12:15 PM ET - Our power ratings have the Bulldogs as a slight favorite so we’ll take the value with Mississippi State. Sparty comes in winning just 2 of their last 7 games and those wins weren’t overly impressive by 4 points at home vs Northwestern who played without 2 starters and in the Big 10 tourney vs Minnesota who tanked at the end of the season losing 6 of their last 7 games. Michigan State only had one quad 1 win in conference play and that was a home win vs Illinois. They weren’t a great shooting team (11th eFG% in the Big 10) and while they do shoot it well from 3, the Bulldogs defend the arc as well as anyone in this tourney ranking 6th nationally allowing just 29%. The Spartans, normally a good rebounding team, are not adept in that stat this season ranking outside the top 140 nationally in both offensive and defensive rebounding. That’s where Mississippi State can take advantage in this game to get some extra possessions as they are one of the better offensive rebounding teams in the nation (21st). Mississippi State has high level wins over 2-seed Tennessee (twice) and 4-seed Auburn in SEC play. Both high level defenses facing off here, both in the top 20 in defensive efficiency, so no big edge on that side of the ball. Much is made of Izzo in March and while he is a great coach, we think that’s overblown. Much of that success was many years ago. In fact Michigan State hasn’t made it past the first weekend in 5 of the last 7 NCAA tournaments. We like the Bulldogs to win this game so we’ll take the point. |
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03-20-24 | SMU v. Indiana State -7 | Top | 92-101 | Win | 100 | 43 h 32 m | Show |
#712 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Indiana State -7 over SMU, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - We expect Indiana State to come into this one with a huge chip on their shoulder after being shunned by the NCAA tournament committee. They absolutely deserved to be in the Big Dance as they rank 45th overall per Ken Pom which is higher than 30 teams that are in the NCAA tourney including a number of at large teams including Virginia, Northwestern, South Carolina, and Drake. The Sycamores were 13-1 SU at home this season and 28-6 overall. They are the best shooting team in the NATION in regards to eFG% and they rank #1 inside the arc making 62% of their shots and 11th nationally in 3 point shooting at 38.5%. On top of that, they make over 80% of their FT attempts. They lost by 4 points vs Drake (who is favored in the NCAA tourney over Washington State) in the MVC Championship but they’ve had a chance to recover as that was 10 days ago. SMU looked like they had a decent shot at the NCAA in late February (ranked 42nd per KenPom at that time) but they tanked it big time down the stretch losing 5 of their last 6 games and dropped 20+ spots in KenPom’s ratings. The Mustangs overall are ranked 66th per Bart Torvik, however since mid November this team ranks 124th so a sharp drop off over the last month as we discussed. Their defense during that stretch since mid February ranks 142nd in efficiency which will be a big problem vs Indiana State’s potent offense. ISU, on the other hand, was still playing very well down the stretch winning 15 of their last 18 games yet was excluded from the NCAA which is the direct opposite of how SMU was playing late. With Indiana State playing at home with a lot of rest we see them playing very well in this game vs an SMU team that may not be as interested limping into this road game. Lay it. |
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03-19-24 | Colorado State -2.5 v. Virginia | Top | 67-42 | Win | 100 | 20 h 29 m | Show |
#671 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Colorado State -2.5 over Virginia, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - We wanted to fade this UVA team in the ACC tourney but they kept getting favorable draws which prevented us from doing that. They faced Boston College playing their 3rd game in 3 days and the Cavs squeaked by with an OT win. Then they faced an NC State team playing their 4th game in 4 days and Virginia lost that game in OT. Most didn’t think they deserved to be in the tourney and we agree. Their offense is just bad, averaging only 63 PPG and they didn’t reach 60 in regulation in either of their 2 ACC tourney games. The Cavs were held to less than 60 points in 6 of their final 8 games and they make their 3’s at a decent rate (36%) they have very little inside game ranking 310th in 2 point FG%. They are facing a solid CSU defense that led the Mountain West in 2 point FG% defense so UVA better be making their 3’s or they are in trouble. The Rams defense as a whole has been very solid this season ranking in the top 40 in defensive efficiency and they should have a huge edge offensively. They rank 13th nationally in FG% hitting 49% of their shots and CSU averages 76 PPG. Neither team is great at offensive rebounding and both protect the ball well (few turnovers) so we don’t see many extra possessions for either side. If this one is close as the spread suggests, FT shooting could loom large and CSU has a huge edge there hitting 76% of their freebies compared to 63% for Virginia. The Rams have much better adjusted efficiency margin numbers AND they played the tougher strength of schedule on top of that (65th SOS to UVA’s 77th SOS). Lay the small number with Colorado State. |
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03-19-24 | Minnesota v. Butler -3.5 | Top | 73-72 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 32 m | Show |
#684 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Butler -3.5 over Minnesota, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - Minnesota had a shot at the NCAA tourney in mid February but this team faded down the stretch losing 5 of their last 6 teams. They weren’t competitive in any of those 5 losses with all coming by double digits. They aren’t a deep team and their head coach Ben Johnson basically said they ran out of gas. It’s going to be tough for them to go on the road and get a win here. They’ve only won 2 road games all season and those game vs Michigan (the worst team in the Big 10) and Penn State (had a losing record). Watching them down the stretch, we’re not sure this Minnesota team will be all that fired up to play in the NIT, especially on the road, despite what they are saying in the media. Butler is much more likely to bring intensity in this one playing at home. The Bulldogs are the better defensive team (51st defensive efficiency vs 133rd for Minnesota per Bart Torvik) and they are in the top 70 nationally in offensive turnover ratio compared to the Gophs that have a much higher turnover rated ranking 215th. As you might expect looking at the turnover rate stats, we like Butler’s backcourt much better than Minnesota’s which is key. The Bulldogs have a very solid 3 guard line up (Brooks, Alexander, and Davis) that combines to average 40 PPG and almost 9 assists per game. Butler is a solid 3 point shooting team (35%) and they are facing a Minnesota defense that ranks 324th guarding the arc. As we’ve stated many times this year, it what is expected to be a close game, FT’s will most likely be key. Butler makes 79% of their FT’s (9th best nationally) and Minnesota hits just 69% from the stripe (291st nationally). Lay it with Butler. |
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03-19-24 | Wagner v. Howard -3 | Top | 71-68 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 2 m | Show |
#670 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Howard -3 over Wagner, Tuesday at 6:40 PM ET - Howard made the Big Dance last season and they returned 4 of their top 8 rotation players from that team so they have some experience in this situation. They also added F Seth Towns who played for Ohio State last year and he’s putting up over 12 PPG. This team is decent offensively averaging 75 PPG and hitting 37% of their triples (31st nationally). That’s a problem for Wagner who has a very poor offense. Can they keep up? Wagner averages just 63 PPG (352nd nationally) and they rank 334th in offensive efficiency, 353rd in eFG%, and 358th in 2 point FG%. Those numbers are bad, especially playing in the Northeast Conference that has half of their teams ranked outside the top 300 in defensive efficiency. Wagner has decent defensive numbers but all of the offenses in their conference rank outside the top 250 and 6 of those 10 teams rank outside the top 300 in offensive efficiency. Their opponent tonight, Howard, would easily be the best offense in the Northeast Conference. Now add in the fact that Wagner wasn’t even close to the best team in their conference, finishing with a losing record (6th place), but made a run in the NEC tourney to get here. They are banged up and thin with only 7 healthy players heading into this tourney. We’ll take the Howard Bison to win and cover on Tuesday. |
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03-17-24 | Duquesne v. VCU -2 | Top | 57-51 | Loss | -115 | 2 h 2 m | Show |
#644 ASA TOP PLAY ON VCU -2 over Duquesne, Sunday a 1 PM ET - VCU was the better team in the A10 all season long and we’ll lay the small number here. The Rams had a higher adjusted efficiency margin vs nearly the exact same strength of schedule. Duquesne has a tendency to struggle offensively and playing their 4th game in 4 days may intensify those struggles. They have failed to top 70 points in 5 of their last 6 games and they rank 14th in the league (out of 15 teams) in offensive efficiency averaging just 1.00 PPP. They should struggle here vs a VCU defense that has held all 3 opponents in the A10 tourney to 62 points or fewer. VCU is also playing their 4th game in 4 days but they are a much better offensive team averaging 1.06 PPP on A10 play, they rank as the 2nd best 3 point shooting team in the conference and make 79% of their FT’s in league play. Both teams are obviously very motivated as the winner moves onto the Big Dance and the loser does not, however we may have a little extra incentive for VCU who lost their regular season home finale to this Duquesne team. We’ll put an asterisk by that win for the Dukes as VCU played without their leading scoring Shulga (15 PPG) who is back and put up 25 points in yesterday’s win over St Joes. The Atlantic 10 Finals has been very chalky with the favorite going 21-9-1 ATS over the last 31 seasons. We’ll call for another favorite to cover and take VCU today. |
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03-16-24 | NC State v. North Carolina -9.5 | Top | 84-76 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
#634 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* North Carolina -9.5 over NC State, Saturday at 8:30 PM ET - NC State has made a valiant run in the ACC tourney to this point but this is where it ends. The Wolfpack are playing their 5th game in 5 days (+ OT last night vs UVA) with a short line up of just 7 rotation players. They caught some breaks along the way with Duke, one of the top 3 point shooting teams, hitting just 5 of 20 triples 2 nights ago in a 5 point Wolfpack win. And it’s not as if NC State is a lockdown defensive team from beyond the arc ranking 263rd nationally defending the 3 point line. Last night they trailed by 6 with 45 seconds remaining in the game and UVA went onto to miss FT’s down the stretch (6 of 11 for the game) and NCSU banked in a 3 at the buzzer to send the game to OT where they won. That was despite the Pack hitting 11% higher from the field compared to UVA and making 8 more FT’s they still had to go to OT to get the win. UNC was easily the best team team in the ACC this year and they are “rested” compared to NCSU playing just their 3rd game in this tourney. The Heels rank #1 in the ACC most defensive metrics (6th nationally in defensive efficiency) and should limit the Wolfpack offense that will have tired legs. UNC should also dominate the boards, for fatigue issues and because they are the #1 offensive & defensive rebounding team in the ACC which will give them extra opportunities vs NC State who ranks 13th in the ACC in defensive rebounding and now tired legs on top of that. The Heels should also win the FT battle with NC State fouling as much as any team in the ACC and UNC makes 75% of their freebies on the season. UNC won both games during the regular season by 9 & 13 points and that was under normal circumstances, not facing NC State playing their 5th game in 5 days. UNC is battling for a #1 seed in the tourney so they are still motivated and they should roll up a big win here. |
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03-16-24 | UAB v. South Florida -1.5 | Top | 93-83 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 25 m | Show |
#618 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* South Florida -1.5 or -2 over UAB, Saturday at 3 PM ET - We were on USF on Friday and they rolled to a huge win over East Carolina. The Bulls were in must win mode and while they move 1 step closer to the NCAA tourney, they really can’t lose this game and leave the decision in the hands of the committee on Sunday. They are still a bubble team despite their 24-6 record. They’ve been the best team in the AAC all season long and continue to get very little respect. The Bulls are the #1 three point shooting team in conference play hitting 38% of their triples. We felt they’d shoot well vs an ECU defense that doesn’t defend the arc well and they did hitting 45% (14 made 3’s). Same situation here as UAB’s defense ranks 262nd nationally (11th in the AAC) defending the 3 point line. In general the Blazers defense leaves a lot to be desired ranking 197th in efficiency. 216th in eFG% allowed, and they give up 75 PPG. They did hold Wichita State to 60 points yesterday but the Shockers were playing their 3rd game in 3 days and UAB had off since the weekend. On top of that, Wichita was not a good offensive team to begin with ranking 13th in the AAC in efficiency. On the other side, South Florida is the best defensive team in the AAC ranking #1 in pretty much every category including defensive efficiency, and eFG% allowed, 2 point FG% allowed, and 3 point FG% allowed. They were able to spread out their minutes yesterday as they led ECU by 30 at home point and 9 guys played 10+ minutes. USF had 2 losses in conference play this season and one of those was a down to the wire game @ UAB (Blazers won by 4) despite the fact UAB made 30 FT’s and just 9 for the Bulls. It was their only meeting this season giving USF even more motivation. They continue to be undervalued but just keeping winning and covering (20-7 ATS). We like USF to get another cover on Saturday. |
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03-15-24 | Baylor v. Iowa State OVER 134 | Top | 62-76 | Win | 100 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
#853/854 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 134 Points – Baylor vs Iowa State, Friday at 9:30 PM ET - This total is much too low according to our power ratings. We have this total set at 140 so as of this writing we’re getting 6 full points of value on the Over. These teams met once this season and that total was set at 142 and while they went Under that number, they still totaled 138 points in that game. The 2 teams combined to shoot just 42% in that game and we expect better shooting numbers tonight. Baylor is one of the top offensive teams in the nation averaging 81 PPG along with ranking 5th nationally in adjusted efficiency and 5th in 3 point percentage hitting 40% of their triples on the season. They are facing an ISU defense that is very good but they aren’t great defending the arc ranking 76th nationally. In their only meeting, the Bears hit 12 triples and we’d expect another solid effort from deep from this outstanding offense. The Bears also get to the FT line more than anyone in the Big 12 and ISU fouls a lot. On the other side, ISU averages 71 PPG on the season and while they aren’t as dynamic offensively as Baylor, they do rank in the top 70 nationally in efficiency. They’ll also be facing a Baylor defense that simply isn’t very good this year. They allow over 70 PPG and rank 12th in the Big 12 in defensive efficiency, eFG% allowed, and 2 point FG% allowed. These teams both played low scoring games yesterday which is keeping this total low. ISU faced Kansas State who is much worse offensively than Baylor (KSU 12th in offensive efficiency in the Big 12) and much better defensively than the Bears (KSU 4th in defensive efficiency) yet the total in that game was 135 which is higher than this number? ISU & KSU totaled 133 points in that game with the Cyclones scoring 76 points vs a really good defense despite making only 1 of 14 three point shots. Baylor beat Cincinnati 68-56 with the teams combining to barely shoot 40% and just 24% from deep. We really like the value with this low total and our play is Over. |
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03-15-24 | Wisconsin v. Northwestern OVER 136.5 | Top | 70-61 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
#809/810 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 137 Points – Wisconsin vs Northwestern, Friday at 2:30 PM ET - This total is light by about 3 points according to our power ratings so we’ll grab the value on the Over. While both teams are slow paced, the offenses on each side are much better than the defenses. Both rank in the top 30 nationally in offensive efficiency and after their home finale vs Minnesota in which the Wildcats put up 90 points, head coach Chris Collins mentioned he’s been extremely happy with his offense this year. This year, we’ve been a terrific offense,” Collins said. “We’ve been really efficient and (have) shot the ball incredibly well.” The Cats are averaging 76 PPG in league playing ranking 4th in the Big 10. Wisconsin is average 75 PPG in conference play ranking 7th. Wisconsin & NW have had very solid defensive teams in the recent past but that really hasn’t been the case this season with both ranking outside the top 230 nationally in eFG% allowed. They are both allowing more than 72 PPG in conference play after they both allowed less than 67 PPG in league play last season. NW’s offense thrives on the 3 point shot with almost 35% of their points in conference play coming from deep (2nd most) and they are facing a Wisconsin defense that ranks dead last in the Big 10 allowing opponents to shoot almost 40% from deep. The Badgers found their offensive rhythm here yesterday putting up 89 points Maryland who came into that game #1 in defensive efficiency in Big 10 play. While we don’t expect UW to shoot as well as they did yesterday, they should still find plenty of success vs a NW defense that ranks 11th in the Big 10 in defensive efficiency. Northwestern’s conference games this year have averaged 149 total points and Wisconsin’s have averaged 147 total points. We like this game to get into the 140’s so Over is the play. |
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03-15-24 | East Carolina v. South Florida -6.5 | Top | 59-81 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
#828 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* South Florida -6.5 over East Carolina, Friday at 1 PM ET - Not only does AAC regular season champ USF have massive motivation here, it’s also a terrible match up for ECU on top of that. The Bulls have had a great season with a 23-6 SU record and 16-2 in AAC play, but they are not guaranteed a spot in the NCAA tourney. In fact, most bracketologists have them out of the Big Dance unless they win this game. That in and of itself isn’t necessarily a reason to make a wager on a team, but we love the match up for the Bulls as well. They are the best defensive team in the AAC ranking #1 in pretty much every category including defensive efficiency, and eFG% allowed, 2 point FG% allowed, and 3 point FG% allowed. The Pirates offensive numbers are not good ranking dead last in the conference in efficiency averaging only 1.00 PPP, dead last in 3 point FG%, and 13th in eFG%. You get where we are going here, ECU will have major problems on offense in this game. In yesterday’s 5 point win over Tulsa, the Pirates were able to shoot 50% (nearly 10% above their season average) vs a defense that ranked near the bottom of the AAC in efficiency and eFG% allowed. That won’t happen today. USF should have plenty of success on offense vs an East Carlina defense that has allowed an average of 81.5 PPG over their last 5. When these teams met for the only time this season @ ECU, the Bulls held the Pirated to 39% from the field and won by 11 points on the road. We see a similar outcome on Friday. South Florida by double digits. |
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03-14-24 | Penn State v. Indiana +105 | Top | 59-61 | Win | 105 | 5 h 28 m | Show |
#742 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Indiana +1 over Penn State, Thursday at 9 PM ET - PSU swept the season series but there is a reason this line opened PSU -2 and now it’s a pick-em most spots. PSU will have to shoot really well from deep to win this game. That’s exactly what they did vs Indiana in their 2 matchups with IU but that may be tough to duplicate tonight. In those 2 wins vs the Hoosiers the Nittany Lions shot over 40% from deep in both games. IU’s 3 point defense has been really solid in Big 10 play ranking 3rd in the conference allowing just 32% so we just don’t see PSU lighting it up from deep. The Hoosiers dominated inside in the 2 games and we expect that again with Penn State ranking dead last in the Big 10 in 2 point FG% defense. Indiana shot over 60% inside the arc in both meetings with PSU and they controlled the boards in those games gathering nearly 35% of their offensive missed shots. The Nits haven’t had any answer for IU’s 2 bigs, Ware & Reneau, who are playing great right now. Those 2 combined for 85 points and 30 boards in their 2 games vs Penn State. IU played those 2 losses without PG Johnson and since he’s been back the Hoosiers have rolled off 4 straight wins including topping both Wisconsin and Michigan State, 2 top 25 teams per KenPom. Take Indiana to win this one tonight. |
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03-14-24 | Ohio State v. Iowa UNDER 154 | Top | 90-78 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 45 m | Show |
#739/740 ASA PLAY ON Under 154 Points – Ohio State vs Iowa, Thursday at 6:30 PM ET - OSU has turned the corner and they are playing great basketball since they fired their head coach Holtmann. Since firing Holtmann the Buckeyes have won 5 of 6 and they’ve gotten in done in the defensive end. The game after Holtmann was let go they held the Big 10s top scoring team, Purdue, to just 69 points (Boilers average 84 PPG). OSU has since held their last 4 opponents to less than 1.00 PPP and they’ve held those 4 opponents to less than 60 PPG. The Bucks offense isn’t great ranking in the lower half of the Big 10 in scoring, FG% and 3 point FG% so interim coach Diebler has really stressed working on the defensive end and it’s paid off. Iowa likes to play up tempo but you can bet OSU will slow this game down. In their only meeting this season in Iowa City, the Buckeyes lost a close one 79-77 and there were only 65 possessions in that game. Both teams eclipsed their season offensive efficiency averages in that game with Iowa averaging 1.22 PPP (they average 1.12 in Big 10 play) and OSU averaging 1.18 PPG in that game (they average 1.08 in conference play). Even with those numbers the game only reach 156 total points. Since mid February, both of these defenses have improved dramatically with OSU ranking 15th nationally in PPP allowed (61st overall on the season) and Iowa ranking 79th (147th overall on the season). The Hawks offensive numbers drop off dramatically on the road where they average 11 PPG fewer than at home and OSU puts up 5 PPG fewer on the road compared to at home. This is an Under play on Thursday. |
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03-14-24 | USC v. Arizona -8 | Top | 49-70 | Win | 100 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
#776 ASA TOP PLAY ON Arizona -8 over USC, Thursday at 3 PM ET - Great line value here with the Wildcats. They were just favored @ USC in the regular season finale by 7.5 and now only laying 8.5 on a neutral. That’s because they lost that game @ USC and in embarrassing fashion 78-65. It was a flat spot for the Wildcats on the road after they had just clinched the Pac 12 title a few days earlier with a 23 point win over UCLA. It showed as Arizona was flat shooting just 39% and hitting only 29% from deep while producing their lowest point total of the entire season. This team was hoping to get another shot at USC and now they get that chance and you can bet Zona is ultra motivated. Not only because of that loss but they are also fighting for a #1 seed in the Big Dance. We like the way USC has been playing over the last few weeks winning 5 of their last 6 games but this is a rough situation for the Trojans. While they have been playing better this is still a team that finished with an 8-12 Pac 12 record and had a negative adjusted efficiency margin in conference play. They shot 50% in their opening round win over Washington yesterday (80-74 final) and they also hit 50% of their shots at home vs Arizona last week. Now they face a motivated Cats team that lead the Pac 12 in both offensive and defensive efficiency and you can bet USC won’t be shooting lights out in this game. Zona ranks in the top 16 nationally in both offensive and defensive efficiency while USC ranks outside the top 80 in both. The Cats had an average winning margin of +17 points in league play while USC had a dead even PPG margin. 12 of Arizona’s 15 conference wins came by double digits! Again, we like how the Trojans have been trending but we can’t pass on this line value with one of the top teams in the country who will be extremely motivated. |
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03-14-24 | VCU -130 v. Massachusetts | Top | 73-59 | Win | 100 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
#721 ASA TOP PLAY ON VCU -130 over Massachusetts, Thursday at 2 PM ET - Big revenger for VCU who lost at UMass by 22 points near the end of February in their only meeting this season. It was by far the Rams worst loss in A10 play and actually their worst loss of the entire season. VCU shot just 30% in that game while UMass knocked down 47% of their shots at home. Both teams made 8 three pointers (both 8 of 25) but we expect a large edge for VCU from deep in this rematch. The Rams are the 2nd best 3 point shooting team in the Atlantic 10 hitting 39% from deep while UMass is a terrible outside shooting team making only 30% of their triples (last in the A10). The Rams are 1st in the conference with 39% of their points coming from deep while the Minutemen are dead last with only 25% of their points coming from 3 point land. VCU is also the better defensive team ranking in the top 30 nationally in eFG% allowed and in the top 65 in defensive efficiency. UMass ranks 63rd in eFG% defense and outside the top 100 in defensive efficiency. These teams finished with identical 11-7 records in conference play yet UMass played the easiest slate in league play (15th SOS) and VCU played the 5th most difficult schedule in the conference. The top 2 teams in the A10 per KenPom (ahead of these 2 who ranked 3rd and 4th) were Dayton and Richmond. VCU played each twice winning at home a losing tight games on the road in OT @ Dayton and by 3 points @ Richmond. UMass played each only once with 1-1 record. VCU played yesterday here in Brooklyn beating Fordham which we think gives them an advantage already get accustomed to this NBA venue. We like VCU to win this one. |
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03-13-24 | Kansas State v. Texas -4.5 | Top | 78-74 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 9 m | Show |
#658 ASA TOP PLAY ON Texas -4.5 over Kansas State, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - Texas is the more well rounded team in this match up and our power ratings have the Horns favored by 6.5 in this game so we like the value. Texas is ranked in the top 55 in both offensive and defensive efficiency and they hold a huge edge on the offensive end of the court here. They rank 19th in adjusted offensive efficiency and KSU ranks 143rd. The Longhorns rank in the top 55 in both FG% and 3 point FG% while the Cats rank 255th and 297th in those stats. KSU does play high level defense however they just don’t put up enough offense away from home to come up with wins. In fact, they won only 1 road game the entire season in Big 12 play and that was @ West Virginia who was by far the worst team in the conference this season. Their PPG numbers drop by nearly 8 points on the road and they average only 0.96 PPP away from home. Texas had 4 Big 12 road wins and blew a 14 point lead @ Baylor late in the season or they would have had another one. The Horns offensive numbers stay fairly consistent on the road as they average 77 PPG at home and 75 PPG away from home. They also put up a solid 1.063 PPP on the road this season. Not only is Texas the much better offensive team they should get more opportunities on that end of the floor as well. That’s because KSU is a turnover machine and a poor defensive rebounding team. The Cats rank 349th in offensive turnover rate (and Texas is solid at creating turnovers) and they rank 272nd in defensive rebounding percentage (and Texas is a solid offensive rebounding team). Those 2 things should lead to a number of extra possessions for the Longhorns. Should UT need to close this one out late with FT’s they are hitting 77% in conference play, 2nd in the Big 12. These 2 met about a month ago and Texas won by 6, however they led by 12 with under 3:00 minutes remaining in that one. This is a pretty short number for Texas and we’ll lay it. |
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03-13-24 | Rutgers v. Maryland UNDER 126 | Top | 51-65 | Win | 100 | 16 h 52 m | Show |
#685/686 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 126 Points – Rutgers vs Maryland, Wednesday at 6:30 PM ET - These are the #1 and #2 teams in the Big 10 in regards to defensive efficiency. They both rank in the top 12 nationally in that statistic with both allowing less than 0.95 adjusted PPP. Both defenses also make opposing offenses really work for shots, opponents average a shot every 18 seconds, putting them both in the top 40 in that category. While we have the 2 best defensive teams in the Big 10, we also have the 2 worst offensive teams squaring off in this one. They rank 13th and 14th in conference scoring and both rank outside the top 325 in FG%. We don’t expect many points from beyond the arc in this one as Rutgers ranks 346th nationally making just 29% of their triples and the Terps rank 352nd making only 28%. In their 2 meetings this season they combined to make only 13 combined 3’s and shot just 21% combined from deep. These teams met twice this season and totaled 109 points both times. Both games were low possessions games (60 & 65) and we expect the same tempo in this one. Rutgers & Maryland have combined to play 62 games this season with 40 of those going Under the total. They’ve also gone Under their last 6 meetings and not one of those 6 games reached 130 points. Playing in an unfamiliar NBA Arena (Target Center in Minneapolis) we would suggest their shooting numbers may end up worse than they normally are. Under is the play. |
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03-13-24 | USC -3 v. Washington | Top | 80-74 | Win | 100 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
#671 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* USC -3 over Washington, Wednesday at 3 PM ET - USC has played as well as anyone in the Pac 12 down the stretch. They were just 3-10 in conference play on February 10th and then caught fire and won 5 of their last 7 games with their only 2 losses coming vs Colorado in double OT and vs Washington State by 3 points and the Trojans led both of those games by double digits in the 2nd half. Those 2 teams are rated #2 and #3 in the Pac 12 behind only Arizona who still sits as a top 10 team nationally and a likely #1 or #2 seed in the Big Dance. Speaking of the Wildcats, USC just rolled Arizona by 13 points to close out the regular season. Since mid February, USC is ranked in the top 20 nationally in overall efficiency per Bart Torvik. These 2 just met 11 days ago and USC beat Washington on the road 82-75. The Trojans led that one by 15 points with under 6:00 minutes to go while the Huskies largest lead of the game in that game was just 4 points. UW led that game, their home finale so motivation was high, for just 2 minutes and that’s it. That was despite the Huskies making 5 more 3 pointers than USC so outscoring them by 15 points from beyond the arc. We don’t see anything changing on a neutral court just 11 days after USC dominated Washington on the road. Lay the small number. |
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03-13-24 | Florida State v. Virginia Tech OVER 152.5 | Top | 86-76 | Win | 100 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
#645/646 ASA TOP PLAY ON Over 152.5 Points – Virginia Tech vs Florida State, Wednesday at 12 PM ET - These teams met twice this season and totaled 158 and 151 points in those 2 games so we’re looking for this one to get into the 150’s again at worst. FSU is the fastest paced team in the ACC and they land in the top 30 nationally in adjusted tempo. VT is middle of the pack in tempo both in the ACC and nationally so they are not a slow paced team. The Hokies played 6 ACC games vs teams ranked in the top 100 in adjusted tempo and 4 of those games reached the 150’s or higher. The only 2 that did not were their 2 games vs Louisville (totaled 143 & 144) and in those games the Cards, who rank 13th in the ACC in offensive efficiency & eFG%, didn’t do their part offensively not hitting 70 in either game. We don’t anticipate that being a problem for FSU who ranks 4th in the ACC averaging 77 PPG in league play. Va Tech’s offense ranks #1 I the conference in eFG% and since February 1st the rank 19th nationally in offensive efficiency. The Hokies lead the ACC in FG% as well and FSU is 4th in that category. Both offenses are better than the opposing defenses as FSU & VT rank 12th and 13th in eFG% allowed in ACC play and 9th and 13th in PPG allowed. Because both have solid offenses and shaky defenses, it wasn’t surprising to see these 2 combine to hit 47% of their shots in the first 2 meetings. We expect similar shooting results here. 4 of the last 5 in this series have gone Over the total and we look for another high scoring game on Wednesday. |
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03-12-24 | Miami-FL -1.5 v. Boston College | Top | 65-81 | Loss | -115 | 16 h 29 m | Show |
#615 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Miami FL -1.5 over Boston College, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Hmmm? Miami enters this game with 9 straight losses, facing a BC team that beat them twice this year yet the Canes opened as a favorite? Strange line and we agree Miami should be laying points in this one. These 2 faced off just last week and BC pulled the upset @ Miami. The Canes lost starting G Pack about 15 minutes into that game and he didn’t return. He didn’t play in the regular season finale @ FSU but we’re hearing there is a chance he plays here. This is a winning Miami program that simply has had a poor season. Entering the year they had a 29-9 SU record in ACC play the previous 2 seasons, they won the ACC last year, and they went to the Final 4. They returned 3 starters and some key reserves from that team along with head coach Larranaga who has nearly 1,200 career wins. They were expected to have a very good season but finished just 6-14 in ACC play. We expect them to play well in this tourney with new life and shot to make the NCAA tourney if they run the table. The Canes have a veteran post season team and played pretty well against the top teams in the ACC taking North Carolina to the wire twice (lost by 3 & 4 points), beat Clemson, and took Wake Forest to OT on the road where the Deacs were 16-1 this season. While Miami is a winning program that simply had a poor season, BC is not used to winning. They are 17-14 this year but haven’t had a winning season since 2018. In ACC play they finished 8-12 despite playing the easiest strength of schedule in league play facing each of the top 4 teams only one time (all losses). We don’t think BC can beat this rejuvenated Miami team 3 times in one season. Lay the small number on Tuesday. |
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03-11-24 | Santa Clara v. St. Mary's UNDER 135.5 | Top | 65-79 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 53 m | Show |
#871/872 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 135.5 Points – Santa Clara vs St Mary’s, Monday at 9 PM ET - These teams played 2 very different games when they faced off this season with one totaling 121 points and the other 159 points. The one thing that was consistent in both match ups was both were low possession games (58 & 65 possessions). That’s how St Mary’s plays ranking 358th in adjusted tempo and 350th in possessions per game. Santa Clara prefers to play fast but based on the possession numbers of their 2 meetings, STM will again control this tempo and make it a slow game. In their high scoring game that reached 159 points, the 2 teams combined for a whopping 44 made FT’s which was an aberration as both rank outside the top 200 (St Mary’s outside the top 300) in percentage of points from the FT line. Neither teams gets there very often as they combined to average 36 FT attempts per game yet in that contest they attempted 61. Much of the scoring was late with SC fouling to try and catch up. In fact, with under 2:00 minutes remaining the teams had scored 129 total points and put up a ridiculous 30 points from that point on. The other meeting that totaled 121 points was more indicative of how we think this game will play out. STM’s defense is one of the best in the country. They rank #1 in both efficiency and eFG% allowed in WCC play. They are allowing just 58 PPG on WCC games which is by far the best in the league. SC’s offense struggled to shoot well vs STM’s this season hitting just 40% of their shots (both games combined) and their offense has regressed drastically over the last month. For the season Santa Clara ranks 103rd in eFG% (5th in the WCC) but since February 1st they rank 263rd in that category. Defensively they’ve gotten much better ranking 36th in eFG% allowed and 63rd in defensive efficiency since February 1st. That’s not a huge surprise as SC head coach Herb Sendek (former HC at NC State & Arizona State) has always been defensive minded. Defenses are the strengths of both teams in this slow paced game so we’ll grab the Under. |
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03-11-24 | St. Thomas +3.5 v. South Dakota State | Top | 49-59 | Loss | -120 | 5 h 27 m | Show |
#859 ASA TOP PLAY ON St Thomas +3.5 over South Dakota State, Monday at 7 PM ET - Our power ratings have these 2 teams rated dead even on a neutral court so the value is absolutely with St Thomas in our opinion. The reason SDSU is favored by 3 points here is they beat St Thomas in both games this season and won the Summit League with a 12-4 record although both of these teams finished 20-12 overall. If we take a closer look at their match ups this year, both games went to the wire with SDSU winning by 1 and 5 points. Statistically the Jackrabbits shot lights out but still struggled to pull away and win by margin. SDSU hit well over 50% in both games and combined to make a ridiculous 57% of their shots in those games including almost 52% from deep. That’s around 10% higher than their season average and almost 18% higher than their season long 3 point average. St Thomas combined to shoot 46% in those 2 games (a little below their season average) and from beyond the arc they were 22 for 63 (35%) which is also just below their average. So SDSU shot lights out and St Thomas shot below their averages yet both games came down to the wire. The largest lead in either game was 9 points and both held that advantage at some point in each game. AEM was advantage STM despite SDSU winning the league. The Jackrabbits held a +4 FT’s made advantage in those games combined and the rebounds were nearly dead even. St Thomas had better adjusted efficiency margins in conference play despite the Jackrabbits winning the league. If South Dakota State comes back to earth shooting wise in this game, we’re confident that St Thomas will win. If not, we still expect a close game similar to the first 2 and the points are worth taking. |
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03-10-24 | Illinois v. Iowa OVER 171 | Top | 73-61 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 50 m | Show |
#813/814 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 171 Points – Illinois vs Iowa, Sunday at 7 PM ET - These teams met at the end of February in Illinois and put up 180 points with the Illini winning 95-85. It was an up tempo game as to be expected with 74 possessions. These teams rank #2 and #3 in the Big 10 in adjusted tempo and both are in the top 70 nationally in that statistic. Both teams shot well in that game but not fantastic each hitting right around their average. They combined to hit 48% of their shots overall and 35% of their triples which again is near their season averages. Both made 20+ FT’s which isn’t a surprise as Iowa hits 80% of their freebies in league play and Illinois makes 77%. Both offenses rank in the top 10 nationally in efficiency and more recently, since February 1st, the Illini are #1 nationally in offensive efficiency and Iowa is 8th. On the other end of the court both defenses rank outside the top 100 and they have been worse recently, again since February 1st, ranking 227th and 236th in defensive efficiency. In conference play, these are 2 of the worst in the Big 10 with Iowa ranking 13th in defensive efficiency and dead last in eFG% allowed while Illinois ranks 9th in defensive efficiency and dead last in 3 point FG% allowed. Illinois has scored at least 80 points in 9 of their last 10 games averaging 89 PPG during that 10 game stretch. At home, the Hawkeyes are averaging 90 PPG on the season and they’ve put up at least 80 points in all but 3 of their 16 home games this year. These teams are combined 41-19 to the Over this season and we anticipate another high scoring game in Iowa City on Sunday. |
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03-10-24 | Michigan State v. Indiana +3.5 | Top | 64-65 | Win | 100 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
#812 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Indiana +3.5 over Michigan State, Sunday at 4:30 PM ET - Two teams heading in opposite directions facing off in Bloomington on Sunday. IU has played their best basketball of the season over the last few weeks winning 3 straight games as underdogs including 2 on the road. Their most recent home game was a solid win over a good Wisconsin team and the Hoosiers were 4 point dogs in that game. They have high level talent along their front line with Ware (former McDonald’s All American) and Reneau who are both peaking at the same time. Those 2 have combined for 97 points and 51 rebounds in those 3 consecutive wins. MSU has lost 3 of their last 4 with their only win during that run coming at home on Wednesday night vs a banged up Northwestern team. That wasn’t an overly impressive 4 point win over a Wildcat team that played without 2 starters. Sparty has been a poor road team this season to say the least winning only 3 of their 9 Big 10 road games. Those 3 road wins have come against Michigan (the worst team in the conference), Maryland, and PSU who all have losing Big 10 records and have a combined mark of 18-39 in Big 10 play. MSU is ahead of the Hoosiers by only 1 game in conference play and IU actually has the better eFG% numbers on offense and defense in Big 10 games. This is also a revenge game for the Hoosiers as they lost their most recent match-up with the Spartans (Feb of 2023). Indiana was the ranked team in that match-up but it was the first home game for Michigan State since the on-campus shooting and they had an inspired game. The Hoosiers did win the last time they hosted the Spartans and we like Indiana getting points in their home finale on Sunday. |
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03-09-24 | Utah v. Oregon -3.5 | Top | 65-66 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 0 m | Show |
#700 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oregon -3.5 over Utah, Saturday at 7 PM ET - We played against Utah on Thursday night @ Oregon State, the worst team in the Pac 12, and picked up a win with the Beavers rolling 92-85 as a 7.5 point dog. The game wasn’t even that close as OSU (5-14 record in the Pac 12) led by 17 with just 4:00 minutes remaining. That continues Utah’s terrible run on the road where they are now 1-8 both SU & ATS in Pac 12 play with their only win coming by 1 point @ UCLA. They average a whopping 11 fewer points on the road compared to at home (84 PPG at home / 71 PPG on the road) and as you might expect their efficiency drops from 1.28 PPP at home to just 1.00 on the road. It’s not only the offense that has drastically differing results on the road the Utes defense allows 67 PPG and home and 80 PPG on the road this season. They allow just 0.90 PPP at home and that rises to 1.12 PPP on the road which is just a huge difference. They’ll get an angry Ducks team on Saturday as Oregon just lost here vs Colorado (2nd best team in the conference per KenPom ratings) by a final score of 79-75. The Buffs shot lights out at 55% in that game and 47% from 3 point land yet it was a 1 point game with 30 seconds remaining. Oregon had a 3 point shot to tie with 6 seconds left but missed. That loss dropped the Ducks to 12-3 SU at home this season with their 3 losses coming vs Arizona, Colorado, and Washington State, the 3 best teams in the conference. In their first meeting @ Utah the Ducks lost 80-77 despite the Utes hitting 50% of their shots and 44% of their triples and the host attempted twice as many FT’s (22 to 11). Despite those impressive offensive numbers, the Utes largest lead of the game was 6 points and it took 2 FT’s in the final seconds to salt the game away. Speaking of FT’s, now back at home we expect Oregon to have the edge at the stripe where they’ve hit 75% in league play (2nd in the Pac 12) while Utah has made only 60% of their freebies (dead last). These 2 teams have met 10 times in Oregon with the Ducks winning 9 of those games. We’ll fade the team that can’t win on the road vs the Ducks in their home finale and off a rare home loss. |
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03-09-24 | North Carolina v. Duke -4.5 | Top | 84-79 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 21 m | Show |
#694 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Duke -4.5 over North Carolina, Saturday at 6:30 PM ET - These 2 met on February 3rd with UNC pulling out a 93-84 win. In that game the Heels shot 50% overall and attempted 14 more FT’s and they held the Blue Devils a normally to just 8 assists and turned them over 11 times (Duke 18th in assist to turnover ratio so an aberration). Since that loss, Duke has been the better team winning 8 of 9 games with their only loss coming @ Wake Forest by 4 points. Since that they rank in the top 15 in both offensive and defensive efficiency and they’ve allowed only 1 of their last 9 opponents to reach 70 points. Since Feb 1 the Devils rank 4th nationally in overall efficiency behind only UConn, Tennessee, and Arizona. This team is playing at the top of their game right now and they’ve been waiting for this rematch. The Tar Heels have shown some struggles as of late losing 3 of their last 10 games and struggled in home wins vs Miami (won by 4 but Miami played without their starting PG) and NC State (won but trailed by double digits in the 2nd half). UNC has played only 1 road game since February 13th and they beat a struggling Virginia team in that game but scored only 54 points. Duke has a solid edge shooting the ball ranking 22nd in FG% compared to 170th for UNC (10th in the ACC in eFG%) and in the Heels 9 true road games they are shooting under 40% from the field. 5 of UNC’s 6 losses have come in road/neutral games and they average 12 PPG less on the road than they do at home. A win by Duke here moves them into a tie for 1st place with UNC and we like this red hot Devils team to get their revenge at home on Saturday vs the arch rival. |
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03-09-24 | Memphis v. Florida Atlantic OVER 162 | Top | 84-92 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
#605/606 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 162 Points – Memphis vs Florida Atlantic, Saturday at 12 PM ET - These teams met 2 weeks ago and Memphis won that game 78-74. The total in that game was set at 160 and it went Under yet now the total on Saturday is set higher at 162 (opener). That was a fast paced game with 70 possessions and we expect a similar game here as both like to play up tempo, especially Memphis who ranks 18th in adjusted tempo. Neither team shot well in that game with both hitting 44% of their shots (which is below both of their season averages) and from beyond the arc it was a brutal effort as they combined to make only 12 of their 55 attempts for 22%. That was well below their season averages of 35% (Memphis) and 36% (FAU). They each made only 11 FT’s in the game which was low as both rank in the top 100 in FT’s made per game at 17 (FAU) and 15 (Memphis). Both dominated the offensive glass in that game (both rebounded 36% of their misses leading to 2nd chances and we expect that to remain the same as neither team is very good on the defensive glass (both outside the top 200). We have the #1 & #2 most efficient offenses in the AAC facing off here in a game and both average 83 PPG on the season. We expect both teams to reach the 80’s in this one and we’ll call for the Over to hit early on Saturday. |
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03-07-24 | Northern Kentucky +7.5 v. Wright State | Top | 99-97 | Win | 100 | 17 h 47 m | Show |
#797 ASA TOP PLAY ON Northern Kentucky +7.5 over Wright State, Thursday at 8 PM ET - These 2 just met last Saturday and now they face off in the Horizon League Tournament. In their game last Saturday, Wright State played at home (same scenario as tonight) and they won by 6 points over NKU. The Raiders shot 54% in the game (51% for Northern Kentucky) and outscored the Norse by 18 points for the 3 point line (+9) and from the FT line (+9) and even with that big advantage the game went to the wire. NKU was playing great basketball heading into that game winning 6 of 7 prior to Saturday’s tight loss. Wright State finished 1 game ahead of Northern KY in the Horizon League with a 13-7 record (12-8 for NKU) and this line is set to high due to that + the fact that WSU won both regular season meeting (by 6 & 7 points). The Raiders are a terrible defensive team, one of the worst in the country, ranking 343rd in defensive efficiency, 351st in eFG% allowed, and 355th in PPG allowed giving up 80 PPG. Really tough to lay this many points in a win or go home situation vs a team that is much better defensively. NKU ranks 2nd in the Horizon League in defensive efficiency and 3rd in eFG% allowed. The Norse allow just 71 PPG which is 2nd best on the conference (league games) while Wright State’s defense is giving up 82 PPG in conference play (last in the league). According to statistics from KenPom.com, when the “better team” (in this case, Wright State) won both previous matchups (which they did), the third game becomes a true toss-up — the better teams win only about 49.3% of the time in these cases. Getting 7.5 points is a great buffer here in a game we think is close. Take the points with Northern Kentucky. |
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03-07-24 | CS-Northridge v. Hawaii -6 | Top | 70-72 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
#718 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Hawaii -6.5 over Cal State Northridge, Wednesday at 11:59 PM ET - After a 4 game winning streak in early February, CS Northridge is trending down losing 4 of their last 5 games and the alarming part is all 4 losses came at home. 3 of those 4 losses came by double digits and now they make the tough travel to Hawaii to take on a team that has won 7 of their last 10 games and currently ranks (per KenPom) as the 4th best team in the conference. The Rainbow Warriors currently sit in 5th place in the league and are fighting for a top 4 finish which would give them a bye in the conference tournament. During this 10 game stretch, Hawaii has faced 3 of the 4 teams that sit ahead of them in the Big West standing and they’ve beaten all 3 by 17, 8, and 8 points. They’ve played the #1 strength of schedule in conference play yet still have much better adjusted efficiency margin numbers when compared to CS Northridge. The Matadors have a losing record in conference play and their offense has generated less than 1.00 PPP (conference games) while ranking dead last in 3 point FG%. These 2 met back in January and CSN pulled the upset beating Hawaii as a 2 point dog. The Rainbow Warriors shot just 33% in that game and made only 13 FT’s compared to the Matadors 25 out of 30 from the stripe (80%). Not to be expected here on the road from a Northridge team that ranks last in the Big West making only 67% of their freebies. The Matadors have traveled to the islands to play Hawaii 11 times in their history and lost 9 of those games. We see double digit Hawaii win late on Wednesday Night. |
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03-05-24 | Purdue v. Illinois -2 | Top | 77-71 | Loss | -109 | 17 h 1 m | Show |
#618 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Illinois -2 over Purdue, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - The Illini have 1 home loss in Big 10 play and that was with Shannon (22 PPG) out. He is back and putting up huge numbers to say the least averaging 26.5 PPG over his last 7. Speaking of Shannon, he also missed the game @ Purdue, a game the Boilers won at home by 5 points. Since his return the Illini offense has taken it to another level ranking 1st nationally in offensive efficiency since February 1st putting up a 1.34 PPP. The Boilers have a 2 game lead in the Big 10 so they are fairly safe even if they lose this game. They have 3 conference losses, all the road, vs Nebraska (34th nationally), Northwestern (46th), and Ohio State (53rd) and they now face an Illinois that is far superior to all of those teams (ranked 12th nationally per KenPom). In Big 10 play, Purdue has played only 2 teams that rank in the top 40 (Wisconsin & Nebraska) and they’ve only faced one top 50 team period since February 4th. That was Michigan State on Saturday and that was just a 6 point home win. The Boilermakers have been winning some tight games with only 2 double digit wins over their last 9 games. We feel they are more than due to get bounced and playing the 2nd best team in the conference on the road is where it will happen in our opinion. The emotion will be high in Illinois’ final home game and biggest home game of the year so we’ll call for the win and cover. |
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03-05-24 | Alabama v. Florida -1.5 | Top | 87-105 | Win | 100 | 17 h 57 m | Show |
#646 ASA PLAY ON Florida -1.5 over Alabama, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Bama in a tough spot here playing their 4th game in 11 days with 3 of those games coming on the road. The Tide were knocked off at home on Saturday vs Tennessee which was a huge game that was a battle for 1st place in the SEC. With the home loss Bama it will now be really tough for Bama to catch the Vols with a 1 game deficit with 2 games remaining and they lost both games to Tennessee this year so they’d lost the tie breaker as well. We wouldn’t be at all surprised if Alabama is a bit flat in their final road game after that disappointing loss on Saturday. They’ve shown to be vulnerable on the road with 3 SEC losses away from home and their best conference win was @ Mississippi State who sits at 8-8 in league play. Every other team they beat on the road has a losing conference record. Florida is also off a loss @ South Carolina on Saturday. It was a game the Gators led by double digits in the 2nd half, outrebounded and outshot (48% to 47%) the Gamecocks but were -11 made FT’s in the 6 point loss. Now back at home where they are 13-1 SU with their only loss coming by 2 points to Kentucky. Their average score at home is 87-71 so winning by +16 PPG. These 2 just met @ Alabama in late February and the Gators gave the Crimson Tide their toughest conference home game of the season (minus Bama’s home loss to Tennessee on Saturday). The Gators led for much of the game including by 10 points with under 8:00 minutes remaining in the game but lost 98-93 in OT. In that loss, the Gators led at half and Bama didn’t take their first lead of the 2nd half until 4:00 remaining in the game. Prior to their game vs Florida, the Crimson Tide were undefeated at home in SEC play winning by an average margin of +21 PPG. Catching Florida in this spot as a home dog (line opened Bama -1) is some solid value in our opinion. The Gators have been a home dog only 1 other time this year vs a very good Auburn team and Florida rolled the Tigers 81-65. Even with the line having flipped to Florida as a small favorite at the time of this posting, we’ll call for the Gators to get a home win on Tuesday |
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03-04-24 | Texas +7 v. Baylor | Top | 85-93 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 20 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas +7 over Baylor, Monday at 9 PM ET - Too many points to give a team we feel has a shot at the outright upset. Texas has won 4 of their last 6 games with their only losses coming @ Houston and @ Kansas. The Horns have been a solid road team in Big 12 play with a 4-4 SU record including outright upsets @ TCU, Oklahoma, and Texas Tech. They have 2 very solid veteran guards in Hunter and Abmas who both average double digits and combined to average 9 assists per game. Texas is one of the top shooting teams in the Big 12 (3rd in shooting %) and they are facing a Baylor defense that struggles on the defensive end ranking 13th in the Big 12 in FG% allowed and 276th nationally. It's going to be tough for the Bears to pull away from this talented offense with a defense that simply isn’t very good right now. Baylor is coming off a huge home game vs Kansas which turned into an 8 point win but they haven’t been unbeatable at home in league play this year. They already have 2 home losses in Big 12 play and only 1 of their 6 home wins in league play have come by double digits. Only 2 of their 10 Big 12 wins have come by 10+ points so for the most part Baylor is playing close games in conference play. This line opened -7 and if it stays there, this will be tied the largest home favorite Baylor has been in conference play this season and that should not be the case facing a balanced Texas team that ranks in the top 40 nationally in both offensive and defensive efficiency. The PPG margin in Big 12 play for these 2 teams is nearly identical with Baylor at +3 PPG and Texas at +1 PPG. Just too many points in game we think will go to the wire. |
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03-03-24 | Rutgers v. Nebraska -8 | Top | 56-67 | Win | 100 | 17 h 2 m | Show |
#850 ASA TOP PLAY ON Nebraska -8 over Rutgers, Sunday at 6:30 PM ET - The Huskers just continue to roll at home and we’ll stick with that trend here. They are 17-1 SU at home with their only loss coming in non-conference play vs Creighton. In Big 10 play they are 9-0 both SU & ATS at Pinnacle Bank Arena with their average margin of victory being +14 points per game. The only 3 teams in conference play they did not beat by double digits at home were Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Northwestern. They are facing a Rutgers team that has all kiinds of trouble offensively and is just 2-6 SU on the road in Big 10 play. The Scarlet Knights rank dead last in conference play in scoring, offensive efficiency, and eFG%. On the road this team is shooting just 39% and scoring 65 PPG on just 0.926 PPP. That shouldn’t change here vs a surprising Nebraska defense that is allowing 65 PPG at home on just 38% shooting. Offensively the Huskers thrive at home averaging 80 PPG and they’ve hit at least 73 points in 15 of their 18 home games this season. That’s not a good sign for Rutgers who struggles to score as we mentioned. In their first meeting this season @ Rutgers, the Cornhuskers blew a 12 point 2nd half lead and lost in OT. Nebraska shot just 38% in that game and we expect them to shoot much better at home on Sunday where their shooting percentage is 3% higher than it is in their road games. The host should also have a solid advantage at the FT line where they shoot 78% in conference play compared to 68% for Rutgers. This is a must win for Nebraska’s tourney hopes and we’ll lay it. |
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03-02-24 | Mississippi State v. Auburn -9 | Top | 63-78 | Win | 100 | 15 h 36 m | Show |
#688 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Auburn -9 over Mississippi State, Saturday at 4 PM ET - Triple motivation for the home team Tigers in this game. First, they are off a loss @ Tennessee on Wednesday night, second they lost their most recent home game vs Kentucky (their only home loss of the season, and they lost @ Mississippi State in January scoring only 58 points on 34% shooting, their worst offensive performance of the season. We look for them to play with a chip on their shoulder in this game at home where they average 85 PPG on 1.160 PPP. The Tigers are 13-1 SU at home (9-4-1 ATS) with all 13 of those wins coming by double digits. They simply blow teams out at Neville Arena winning by an average of score of 85-65. MSU will have a tough time bouncing back here as they put a lot of emphasis on their home revenge game vs Kentucky on Tuesday night and lost by 2 blowing a 13 point 2nd half lead. The Bulldogs are a poor road team (2-6 SU) with their only 2 road wins coming @ Mizzou and @ LSU, 2 of the 4 lowest rated teams in the SEC. When the Dogs have had to step up in competition on the road it hasn’t been pretty. They’ve faced 4 teams in SEC play that currently sit ahead of them in the conference standing and lost all 4 by an average of 16 PPG. MSU is the worst team in the league at turning the ball over (19% of their possessions in SEC play are turnovers) and they are facing an Auburn team that creates havoc defensively (2nd in the SEC in defensive TO% and 6th nationally in defensive efficiency). We also expect the Tigers to have a huge advantage in points at the FT line as they hit 77% of their freebies in league play while MSU makes only 62% of their FT’s. We don’t think the Bulldogs can keep up here and we like the motivated Tigers to roll up an easy win, as they usually do at home. |
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03-02-24 | South Florida v. Charlotte -3 | Top | 76-61 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 35 m | Show |
#684 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Charlotte -3 over South Florida, Saturday at 4 PM ET - Love this spot for Charlotte. They’ve had a full week off since losing back to back road games to fall to 11-4 in AAC play (2nd place). On Saturday they host the USF Bulls who are 14-1 in league play and have a full 3 game lead with 3 games to play so they are pretty much assured of winning the AAC regular season title. We feel USF is vastly overvalued because of their record but the fact is, they’ve played the easiest schedule in conference play and they have the 5th best adjusted efficiency margin in the AAC and KenPom has them ranked as the 5th best team in the league as well despite their record. The Bulls just had a huge home game topping SMU which gave them at least a tie for the conference title and they just entered the AP top 25 for the first time EVER. While they do have a 6-3 SU road record, they haven’t been great squeaking by lower tier AAC teams (Temple, Rice, and UTSA – combined 13-33 SU AAC record) all by 6 points or fewer. The 2 solid road wins they have had an asterisk by each @ Memphis winning by 2 (trailed by 20 in the 2nd half) and @ UNT by 5 (who played without one of their top players CJ Noland). They have played only 2 of the top 7 teams in the conference on the road thus far. After basically clinching the AAC title and squeaking into the top 25, we look for a letdown from USF in this game vs a very good Charlotte team that is desperate off 2 losses. Prior to that 2 game losing stretch, the 49ers had won 11 of 12 games. They are still battling 4 other teams (5 teams for 3 spots) to finish in the top 4 and receive a double bye in the AAC tourney. The 49ers are 12-1 SU at home this year and 7-0 in conference play. Going back to the start of last season they are 23-5 SU at home. When these two met 1 month ago @ USF, the 49ers lost by 3 points but dominated the vast majority of the game. Charlotte blew a 17 point lead in that game and USF’s largest lead of the game was 3 points which was the final margin. The Bulls FIRST lead of that game came with 29 seconds remaining! We like Charlotte to get their revenge at home in this one after dominating the first meeting. |
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03-02-24 | Marquette v. Creighton -4.5 | Top | 75-89 | Win | 100 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
#656 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Creighton -4.5 over Marquette, Saturday at 2:30 PM ET - The Blue Jays are playing their home finale here and trying 2 catch Marquette for 2nd place in the Big East. The Golden Eagles sit 2 games ahead but they have this game and a game vs UConn yet on the docket so Creighton definitely has a chance to catch them if they win this game. It looks like Marquette will be without their starting PG Tyler Kolek (15 PPG & 7.5 APG) who is one of the top players in the Big East. He injured his oblique muscle on Wednesday and wasn’t able to practice on Thursday. When these 2 met in Milwaukee the Golden Eagles squeaked out a 72-67 win with Kolek and Sean Jones (also injured and out for this game) combined to score over 40% of Marquette’s points that night (30 points). Two keys in that game were aberrations in our opinion with Marquette, a poor rebounding team, +9 on the boards. The Golden Eagles also attempted 10 more FT’s but they score the fewest points in the league from the FT line. If those 2 things go Creighton’s way at home, like we think they will, this should be a cover. The Jays offense is nearly unstoppable at home averaging 86 PPG while hitting 52% of their shots. They are 13-2 at home this year (26-4 SU since the start of last season) with their 2 losses coming by 1 & 2 points and they topped the Big East’s beat team, UConn, here by 19 points in February 20th. Marquette lost on the road to the UConn team by 28 points just 3 days prior to that. This is Marquette’s first road game since February 17th and with the Golden Eagles being without much of their firepower in this game, we just don’t think they can keep up with Creighton. Lay it. |
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03-01-24 | Troy State v. Texas State +3.5 | Top | 79-82 | Win | 100 | 19 h 37 m | Show |
#884 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas State +3.5 over Troy, Friday at 8:15 PM ET - Couple key things at play in this game. First the scheduling situation is heavily in favor of the home team Texas State. They are playing the 2nd of back to back home games after beating ULM here by 18 points on Tuesday. It’s also the home finale which always brings an extra level of motivation. Lastly, because the Bobcats played on Tuesday, they are getting an extra day as Troy played Wednesday night @ Louisiana. Speaking of the Trojans, this will be their 4th straight road game in the span of only 9 days. They’ve played @ Arkansas St, @ ULM, @ Louisiana all since Feb 22nd and now @ Texas St just 48 hours after upsetting the Rajin Cajuns on Wednesday. In that win Troy made a ridiculous 38 FT’s (38 of 42) and Louisiana shot just 1 of 12 from 3 point land. Troy has a losing road record this season (5-8 SU) and with weary legs expected, they really don’t have a whole lot to play for. They are in 3rd place in the Sun Belt and locked into that spot most likely unless James Madison (2nd best team in the Sun Belt) would lose to Coastal Carolina, the worst team in the league which is highly unlikely. Troy is locked into a double bye in the conference tourney no matter what they do here. Texas State, on the other hand, needs a win to have a chance to move out of an opening round game and pick up a single by in the tournament. While the Bobcats have a losing record overall, they are 8-4 SU at home this season and they are playing well winning 6 of their last 9 games including topping the best team in the conference, App State, here by 7 points during that stretch. They average home margin is 75-66 and this is a revenger as the Bobcats lost @ Troy earlier this season with the Trojans shooting over 50% overall and over 40% from deep. We think Texas State has a great shot at the upset here and if not it should be close so we’ll grab the points with the home dog. |
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02-29-24 | USC v. Washington State -6.5 | Top | 72-75 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 37 m | Show |
#842 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington State -6.5 over USC, Thursday at 10:30 PM ET - We’re getting one of the best teams in the Pac 12 at home off a loss. Washington State lost @ Arizona State on Saturday but that was a massive letdown spot for the Cougars after they upset Arizona on the road 2 nights earlier. Their loss @ ASU dropped them to 2nd place in the league so they need to win to keep pace with 1st place Arizona. Wazzu is 13-1 at home this year with 12 of their 13 home wins coming by at least 7 points and this spread sits at -8. Their only home win by fewer than 7 points was a 3 point win over Arizona. At home the Cougs hit over 50% of their shots, over 38% of their triples and they win by an average score of 80-63. They are facing a USC team that is 4 games below .500 on the season and on the road they are just 2-8 SU this season. One of those win came @ arch rival UCLA on Saturday as they topped the Bruins 62-56. After that big win we would look for a letdown from a USC team that really doesn’t have a lot to play for in this one as they sit in 2nd to last place in the Pac 12 with a 5-11 record. The Trojans have underachieved all season ranking 10th in the Pac 12 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. They also have the worst 3 point defense in conference play allowing opponents to hit over 38% of their triples. Meanwhile, WSU ranks in the top 3 in Pac 12 play in both offensive and defensive efficiency and they are the #1 eFG% defense in the conference. USC has had 7 of their 8 road losses by at least 8 points which is more than tonight’s spread of 6.5 points. Wazzu won by 8 @ USC already this year and we look for a double digit win for the Cougars tonight. |
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02-28-24 | Arizona v. Arizona State +12 | Top | 85-67 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 50 m | Show |
#756 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Arizona State +12 over Arizona, Wednesday at 10 PM ET - These 2 arch rivals met 10 days ago and Arizona destroyed the Sun Devils 105-60 which was the largest margin of victory for either team ever in this storied rivalry. You can bet ASU will bring their “A” game in this one at home after that embarrassment. In that loss the Sun Devils made only 36% of their shots and made only 12 FT’s compared to the Wildcats 57% and 25 made FT’s. ASU has had a disappointing 14-14 season thus far but they’ve been solid at home with a 10-4 record and this will be their 3rd straight home game after losing by 2 vs Washington in OT and then topped Washington State by 12 points who was in the 1st place tie with Arizona at the time. With the exception of 1 game, they’ve been competitive in their home losses as well with 2 of their 4 setbacks coming by 2 points. Zona has been a dominant home team, but on the road they are just 5-3 SU on the season with losses @ Oregon State (last place in the Pac 12) and @ Stanford (9th place in the Pac 12). On the road the Cats average 6 fewer points and their shooting percentage drops 5% and their 3 point percentage drops 6%. The last 12 times Arizona has traveled to ASU, they’ve never won by more than 13 points and the Devils actually won 5 of those games outright. This is a very dangerous spot for the Cats and we like Arizona State to keep this close. Take the points. |
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02-28-24 | Minnesota +11.5 v. Illinois | Top | 97-105 | Win | 100 | 18 h 53 m | Show |
#749 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota +11.5 over Illinois, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - The Gophs continue to be undervalued with a ridiculous 23-4 ATS record and the fact is this team has played very well and been very competitive since late January. They’ve won 5 of their last 8 games and against the top half of the Big 10, they’ve held their own to say the least. Against the top 6 teams in the conference (Purdue, Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Northwestern, & Nebraska), all ranked inside KenPom’s top 45 nationally, Minnesota has a record of 3-4 SU (6-1 ATS) with only 1 loss coming by more than 10 points and that was @ Nebraska over the weekend. They gave Purdue all they could handle on the road losing by 8 in a game the Gophers led by 10 in the 2nd half. They lost by 2 points vs Wisconsin and split with Michigan State – those are the top 3 teams in the conference besides Illinois. They are coming off their worst outing of the entire season losing @ Nebraska by 18 and they haven’t lost by more than 12 in any other conference game this season. We expect the Gophers to play well in what is a must win game if they have any hopes of an NCAA berth. They are on the outside looking in now but winning this game and closing the season with 3 more winnable games could get them in the conversation. Illinois is coming off a home win over Iowa by 10 points in a game they trailed by 7 with 12:00 remaining in the game. The Illini are in 2nd place in the Big 10 and they have a huge game on deck @ 3rd place Wisconsin to this could be a flat spot for them. They simply haven’t been playing dominant basketball over the last month. Their record over that stretch is 6-3 SU, however they only have 1 win by more than 12 points and that was at home vs a free falling Michigan team. Their defense has not been good allowing at least 1.13 PPP in 6 of their last 9 games and they’ve allowed at least 80 points in 5 of their last 6 games. Minnesota’s offense has played very well as of late averaging 78 PPG in their 7 games prior to playing poorly vs Nebraska last weekend. They’ll be able to do enough on offense to stay within this big number. Take the points. |
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02-28-24 | St. John's v. Butler -120 | Top | 82-59 | Loss | -120 | 17 h 27 m | Show |
#744 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Butler -1 or PK -120 over St John’s, Wednesday at 8:30 PM ET - We’re catching Butler at the bottom of the market, so to speak, here in a must win home game. They’ve lost 4 straight games after they had won 5 of 6 heading into that stretch. After starting the Big East season with a 4-1 conference record, the Johnnies are just 4-8 SU their last 12 games and 2 of those 4 wins came vs DePaul & Georgetown the 2 worst teams on the Big East. They are coming off a huge home upset beating Creighton on Sunday making this a shorter turnaround as Butler played on Saturday. Now STJ goes back on the road where they are just 2-5 SU in conference play with one of those wins coming by 5 points @ Georgetown, the 2nd lowest rated team in the league ahead of only DePaul. The Bulldogs are 11-4 SU at home and 3 of those losses have come vs UConn, Marquette, and Creighton, the 3 highest rated teams in the conference, all in the top 13 nationally per KenPom. These 2 met way back in early January and STJ won 86-70 and Butler was just 9 of 29 from deep (31%) and they only attempted 12 FT’s (21 FT attempts for St Johns). The Johnnies also hit 50% of their shots in that win. Now back at home where Butler shoots very well (36% from 3) and averages 82 PPG. After losing points at the FT line in the first meeting, we should see the Bulldogs have a nice advantage at the stripe as St John’s fouls as much as anyone in the conference and Butler makes nearly 80% of their freebies. St John’s has won only twice in their 9 trips to Hinkle Fieldhouse and we don’t see it happening here. Take Butler. |
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02-27-24 | Nevada v. Colorado State -7 | Top | 77-74 | Loss | -115 | 21 h 55 m | Show |
#660 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Colorado State -7 over Nevada, Tuesday at 10:30 PM ET - Really like this spot for a very solid CSU team off back to back road losses @ New Mexico & @ UNLV. The Rams are back home where they are a perfect 7-0 SU (5-2 ATS) in Mountain West action. They are one of the best shooting teams in the nation ranking 25th in eFG% (42nd in offensive efficiency) and at home those numbers rise even more as they’ve hit 52% of their shots and averaged 82 PPG at Moby Arena. Their offensive efficiency at home is 1.16 PPP compared to 1.03 PPP on the road. So we know the Rams are good at home offensively. On defense has been where this team has surprised us this season. They rank 25th nationally in defensive efficiency and in conference play the Rams are #2 in defensive efficiency and eFG% allowed. Put those 2 things together and you can see why this team is deadly at home (14-1 overall record with only loss by 3 points vs top 20 St Mary’s). Nevada is in the 2nd of back to back road games and this will be their 3rd in 4 on the road in the last 11 days. They are off a road win @ San Jose St, the lowest rated team in the MWC. This is also a revenger for CSU who lost 77-64 @ Nevada in January (we were on Nevada), in a game where the normally top notch shooting Rams hit 39% overall and just 26% from 3. They have struggled shooting at times on the road and that was one of those games, but now back at home we expect a very good offensive output for Colorado State. It they need to ice this one late the Rams hit over 76% of their FT’s on the season as well. Let’s lay the number with Colorado State. |
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02-27-24 | Kentucky v. Mississippi State -3 | Top | 91-89 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 28 m | Show |
#622 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Mississippi State -3 over Kentucky, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - We always at least look into the spot of an unranked home team favored over a ranked road team as historically that has been a solid play on the host. It’s never an automatic play for us as many other variables must be researched. We do like MSU in this one. Kentucky, ranked 15th in the AP Poll, is off a huge home win over Alabama who was in 1st place in the SEC at the time (on Saturday). The Cats rolled up huge offensive numbers in that game winning 117-95 shooting 63% from the field, 54% from beyond the arc, and 85% from the FT line. Now this young team, all but 1 player in the rotation are underclassmen, goes on the road to Starkville in what is a huge home game for the Bulldogs. This is a very similar situation to the Cats beating Auburn a little more than a week ago and then traveling to LSU where they lost. MSU has a solid 19-8 SU record but they are not yet safely in the NCAA tourney. Their most recent projection was right around a 9 seed by most and with 2 tough road games @ Auburn and @ A&M next, they can’t afford a potential 3 game losing streak. They have just 1 home loss in conference play (vs Bama) and the Dogs are on a solid 5 games winning streak including an impressive 20 point road win @ LSU on Saturday. These 2 met in Lexington in mid January and UK won 90-77 hitting 56% of their shots and making 23 FT’s to just 6 for Mississippi State. We look for the Bulldogs defense to take that game personally and play up to their capabilities here in the rematch. They have been fantastic all season defensively ranking 5th nationally in 3 point FG% defense, 23rd in eFG% defense, and 11th in defensive efficiency. These two teams have played nearly identical strength of schedules (44th and 47th per KenPom) and have the exact same records (both 19-8 SU) yet Kentucky is getting all the accolades. We like Mississippi State to win and cover this one at home. |
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02-25-24 | Ohio State v. Michigan State -9.5 | Top | 60-57 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 10 m | Show |
#852 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Michigan State -9.5 over Ohio State, Sunday at 4 PM ET - Tough spot for a struggling OSU team on the road after playing @ Minnesota on Thursday night. They’re playing an MSU team that is off a poor home loss on Tuesday vs Iowa and they’ve had 2 extra days to get ready for this one. The Buckeyes had their one big upset at home vs Purdue the game after their head coach Holtmann was fired. That was a week ago and you could see in that game that OSU brought their “A” game along with an emotional effort which was to be expected. Then on Thursday they went right back to their old ways losing by 9 @ Minnesota in a game that wasn’t that close (Gophers led by 17 with 5:00 remaining in the game). They haven’t won a road game yet this season, 0-8 SU, and they are walking into a hornet’s nest here after traveling with short rest. MSU looked sluggish here on Tuesday vs Iowa to say the least. The Hawks shot over 50% and averaged 1.20 PPP which is WAY above Sparty’s season average as they allow 0.95 PPP. MSU should fare well offensively here vs an OSU defense thar ranks 13th (out of 14 Big 10 teams) in defensive efficiency and dead last defending the arc. Meanwhile Sparty, after a very slow start to the season from 3 point range, has moved all the way up to 30th nationally hitting 37% of their triples. We’re getting value in this bounce back spot as Michigan State was favored by 9.5 vs Iowa on Tuesday and now we get the same opening line vs an Ohio State team that is in a bad situation and ranks well below Iowa in KenPom’s power ratings. Prior to that loss, MSU had won 9 straight home games and they can’t afford a loss here with Purdue and NW (2 losable games) on deck. The Spartans are safely in the NCAA field now right around an 8 seed but a loss here could move them closer to the bubble. |
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02-24-24 | Oklahoma v. Oklahoma State -110 | Top | 84-82 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
(Line moved AFTER we prepared the write-up but we still like OSU even as a small favorite or a pick'em in this spot) #688 ASA PLAY ON Oklahoma State (small fave or pick'em) over Oklahoma, Saturday at 4 PM ET - This Oklahoma State team has a losing record on the season, but they absolutely haven’t quit on the season and they have been trending in the right direction for about a month. After starting the Big 12 season with an 0-6 SU record, the Cowboys have now won 4 of their last 7 games including a win @ Cincinnati on Wednesday. That was a few days after they beat a very good BYU team here at home by double digits. Their most recent loss came on February 10th on the road vs this Oklahoma team. The Sooners were favored by 11 in that game and never came close to covering the spread as their largest lead of the game was just 7 points. OSU actually led by 4 with just over 4:00 minutes remaining in the game and it was a 1 point game with OU leading with just 11 seconds left in the game (Final was 66-62 in favor of Oklahoma). The Cowboys shot just 31% in that game (OU was at 45%) and only 17% from deep yet still almost won the game on the road. After starting the season 13-1, the Sooners have declined winning just 5 of their last 12 games and their road record in Big 12 play is 2-4 SU. They’ve only played 6 true road games the entire season and they are averaging just 67 PPG in those road contests while shooting 41%. Okie State has won 3 straight home games and despite their 12-14 overall record, they are 10-5 at home. Three of those five losses have come vs teams currently ranked in KenPom’s top 17 (Kansas, Baylor, and Creighton). OSU has won 6 of their last 7 meetings at home vs arch rival Oklahoma and we give them a great shot at the upset on Saturday. |
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02-24-24 | Duke v. Wake Forest -2 | Top | 79-83 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
#642 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Wake Forest -2 over Duke, Saturday at 2 PM ET - Just a massively huge game for Wake here. They currently sit on the bubble for the NCAA tourney and really need a signature win down the stretch. This would absolutely qualify. WF will most likely be favored in each of their last 4 games so this is their final regular season shot to make a statement. These 2 met just 2 weeks ago and Duke won that game at home by 8. The Devils largest lead of the game was just 9 and it was mainly tight throughout. Duke led by 5 with 30 seconds left in the game and the FT disparity was heavily in favor of the Devils (+9 FT’s made) as it usually is at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Duke outshot Wake 47% to 39% yet the game was still very tight most of the way. From beyond the arc the Deacs were just 6 of 26 in that game (23%) which is way below their season average of 37% which is 25th best in the nation. We look for the Demon Deacons to shoot much better at home on Saturday where they have made 50% of their shot & 42% of their 3 pointers this season while averaging 85 PPG. They are also undefeated at home this year (14-0 SU & 10-3-1 ATS) including 8 wins over top 100 teams. The Devils do have a winning record on the road this year but they’ve been a bit fortunate in their road games over the last month or so. Example, they just beat Miami on the road on Wednesday but the Canes played without Pack & Cleveland, both starters who average 14 PPG. They also played @ FSU last Saturday and won but the Noles are a team in turmoil right now losing 6 of their last 9 games including 4 home games. Duke has played only 2 top 50 teams on the road all season and split those games beating Va Tech (who is 50th) and losing @ UNC. Wake is currently ranked 20th in the KenPom power ratings which is near where we have them as well. Last year the Blue Devils traveled to WF as a favorite and lost by double digits to a Demon Deacon team that was rated 50+ spots lower this this team. It’s Duke’s 3rd straight road game (Saturday, Wed, Saturday) and Wake is off a blowout home win on Tuesday vs a Pitt team that was rolling (won 5 straight entering that game). That means the Deacs get an extra day to prepare for this one as well while Duke continues their travel schedule. A non ranked team favored at home over a top 10 team? We agree and expect Wake to win and cover this one. |
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02-22-24 | Sam Houston State v. New Mexico State +1.5 | Top | 79-58 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 6 m | Show |
#806 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New Mexico State +1 over Sam Houston State, Thursday at 9 PM ET - NMSU has one of the biggest, if not the biggest, home/road dichotomy in college basketball. They are 0-12 SU on the road this season but a near perfect 11-1 SU at home. Their only home loss was vs one of the top teams in the MWC, New Mexico, and that was by 1 point. The Aggies are finally back home after losing 3 straight games, all on the road. We like the value here getting NMSU as a home dog (opening line +1) as we have them favored in this game in our power ratings. These 2 met in late January and SHSU was favored by 5 at home which means they should be a dog in this game of 2 of 3 points for the normal home/road swing. Sam Houston is off back to back wins but both at home. They haven’t been very successful on the road this year with a 4-9 SU record. They are a poor shooting team (322nd in FG%) but on the road it’s even worse where they hit just 39% of their shots and score 66 PPG. That’ll be tough to overcome in this road game vs a New Mexico State team that allows their opponents to make only 36% of their shots here at home while holding them to 61 PPG. When these 2 met 3+ weeks ago, Sam Houston won by 12 and the difference in that game was from beyond the arc. NMSU made only 4 three point shots (hit only 20% for the game) while Bearkats hit 10 outscoring the Aggies by 18 from deep. We expect that to turn around here as NMSU is a poor shooting team on the road, but at home they hit 41% of their triples on the season. We’ll take the points with the home team tonight. |
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02-22-24 | College of Charleston v. Delaware +2 | Top | 90-71 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 23 m | Show |
#756 ASA TOP PLAY ON Delaware +1.5 over College of Charleston, Thursday at 7 PM ET - C of C is in 1st place in the CAA with Delaware 2 games back and chasing. We like the Blue Hens to pick up a home win on Thursday night. They are playing very well right now winning 5 of their last 6 games and they only have 1 home loss this season in conference play. Delaware is the #1 team in the conference in eFG% allowed and on offense they are #2 in eFG%. They defend the arc better than anyone in the CAA allowing just 28% in league games and they rank in the top 40 nationally overall on the season in that category. That is key here and Charleston throws up a lot of 3 point shots at 3rd most nationally attempting 31.5 per game. Despite being a team that scores almost 40% of their points from 3 (which is 19th most nationally) the Cougars aren’t a great 3 point shooting team ranking 244th in 3 point FG%. We expect tonight they’ll struggle against a very good 3 point defensive team. C of C has had some success on the road in league play winning 4 straight but they were all vs teams ranked 296th or lower in KenPom (Delaware is 147th). There are 7 CAA teams ranked in the top 200 and the Cougs have only played 2 of those teams on the road so far this season (1-1 record). They also have a huge revenge game on deck vs Towson in 2 days. These 2 teams have played a similar SOS this season yet the Blue Hens shoot the ball better (47% to 43%) and they defend better allowing opponents just 42% from the field (C of C allows 44%). We like Delaware to get the home win tonight. |
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02-21-24 | Colorado State v. New Mexico -5.5 | Top | 66-68 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 4 m | Show |
#726 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New Mexico -5.5 over Colorado State, Wednesday at 10 PM ET - We’re catching this very solid New Mexico team off a road loss @ San Diego State while CSU is off a home win over 1st place Utah State. Perfect spot to grab the Lobos here. Colorado State has struggled big time on the road with a 1-5 SU mark in conference play. Their only MWC road win was @ Fresno State, the 3rd lowest rated team in the league, and when playing the top end of the conference away from home they’ve lost by 16 @ SDSU, by 13 @ Nevada, by 8 @ Boise, and by 5 @ Utah St. The Rams have very good overall offensive numbers but they drop off quite drastically away from home. They average 7.5 PPG less on the road and shoot 5% lower from the field. The Lobos won their first 11 home games this season but lost their most recent 2 vs Boise St and UNLV. They have rolled over some of the top tier teams in the MWC here at home beating 1st place San Diego State by 18 and 1st place (tied with SDSU) Utah State by 13. The Lobos have also had an extra day to rest and get ready for this one after playing last Friday with Colorado State playing on Saturday. When these 2 met @ CSU the Rams won by 8 with a +14 edge in made FTs. New Mexico is the only team in the MWC that ranks in the top 3 in both offensive and defensive efficiency (conference games) and they lead the conference in TO rate both offensively and defensively as well. They are the better rebounding team in this match up as well which should lead to some extra possessions as well along with their expected edge in TO margin. We’ll lay it with New Mexico at home. |
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02-21-24 | Belmont v. Drake -9 | Top | 69-84 | Win | 100 | 18 h 56 m | Show |
#694 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Drake -9 over Belmont, Wednesday at 8 PM ET - Drake, who sits in 1st place in the MVC tied with Indiana State, has been waiting for this rematch. That’s because the Bulldogs, who are 13-3 in conference play, lost @ Belmont by 22 points, by far their worst loss of the MVC season. It was the most points Drake has allowed in conference play this season AND the least points they’ve scored in conference play this season. The Bruins went crazy in that game at home making 57% of their shots overall and 55% of their 3 pointers. It still stands as Belmont’s ONLY win this season over a top 100 opponent. Drake is the highest rated team in the MVC per KenPom (48th nationally) and they are the #1 offensive and defensive efficiency team in the conference (league games). They are a perfect 14-0 at home this season with 11 of those wins coming by double digits. Going back further they’ve won 73 of their last 80 home games! Belmont is playing their 3rd road game in their last 4 and when they faced the other 2 top 100 teams in the MVC on the road (Indiana State & Bradley) they lost by 30 & 23 points respectively. The Bruins are the fastest paced team in the Missouri Valley which will give the superior team Drake a better chance to pull away as we expect lots of possessions in this one. When the Bulldogs faced Belmont here last year they won by 14 but led by 22 with just 4:00 remaining in the game. We look for a similar outcome on Wednesday night with Drake winning easily. |
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02-20-24 | San Diego State v. Utah State -2.5 | Top | 63-68 | Win | 100 | 19 h 1 m | Show |
#638 ASA TOP PLAY ON Utah State -2.5 over San Diego State, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - These 2 are currently tied at the top of the MWC so the winner here moves into sole possession of 1st place. We like the home team Utah State. We’ve been on San Diego State a number of times at home this season where they’ve won 51 of their last 53 games, however the Aztecs are simply a different team away from the Viejas Arena. While they are undefeated at home, on the road SDSU is just 4-6 SU on the season and while all of their key offensive numbers drop on the road, their defensive numbers fall off dramatically. The Aztecs all 12 more PPG away from home and their defensive efficiency goes from 0.87 PPP at home to 1.04 PPP on the road. Their only road wins in conference play were vs San Jose State & Air Force, the 2 worst teams in the Mountain West. SDSU is also off 2 huge home revenge wins over Colorado St and New Mexico while we’re catching Utah State off a 20 point road loss @ CSU (we were on CSU). The Aggies now get to play at home after that embarrassing loss where they are 11-1 SU this year and 25-2 SU since the start of last season. It’s a revenger for USU who lost 81-67 @ San Diego State in a game where the Aggies shot poorly (26% from 3) and attempted 15 fewer FT’s than the host Aztecs. USU is the better shooting team by a fairly wide margin, especially at home where they hit 53% of their shots and average 85 PPG. If the Aggies need to put the game away late with FT’s they are the #1 FT shooting team in the MWC in league games hitting almost 77%. Lay this small number with Utah State at home. |
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02-20-24 | Baylor v. BYU -3.5 | Top | 71-78 | Win | 100 | 19 h 57 m | Show |
#644 ASA PLAY ON BYU -3.5 over Baylor, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - Like this spot for the very good home team BYU coming off their worst loss of the season. The Cougs lost by 10 @ Okie State on Saturday, the 2nd lowest rated team in the Big 12. The normally sharp shooting BYU team (36% from 3 on the season) made only 8 of 35 triples (22%) in that loss. If they don’t hit 3’s they are in trouble as 41% of their points come from deep (2nd most in the nation). They should have success back at home facing a Baylor defense that isn’t great defending the arc (144th nationally) and in Big 12 play alone they rank 10th in the league. This is also a tough travel spot for Baylor after playing in West Virginia on Saturday (getting a win) and now on the west coast just a few days later. The Bears aren’t the deepest team in the world (266th in bench minutes) and will be playing in altitude for the first time this season – they’ve never played at BYU. The Bears may also be without one of the key players once again, Langston Love (12 PPG), which will take one of their top 3 point shooters off the floor and limit their depth even further. When these 2 met @ Baylor it was the first Big 12 game ever at the new Foster Pavilion (only 2nd game played there this season at the time) and the Bears were extra motivated. BYU shot a higher percentage for the game and outrebounded Baylor by 7, however they couldn’t overcome the Bearss 3 point shooting (43% for the game from deep) and they were outscored by 11 at the FT line in that 9 point loss. The Bears are in a bad travel spot as we mentioned, and situationally they have a huge game on deck at home vs #1 Houston (per KenPom). BYU is a very tough place to play (40-8 SU their last 48 here) and we like them to get the win and cover on Tuesday night. |
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02-20-24 | TCU v. Texas Tech -5.5 | Top | 81-82 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 53 m | Show |
#640 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas Tech -5.5 over TCU, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - Tech in need of a home win here after losing 4 of their last 6 games. However, all of those losses were close (8 points or less) and 3 of the 4 setbacks were on the road. Two of those losses came @ Iowa State (by 8) and @ Baylor (by 3), both top 12 teams per KenPom. The Red Raiders are coming off a road loss @ ISU over the weekend but their most recent home game prior to that was a 29 point win over Kansas. They are 13-1 at home this season with an average scoring margin of 77-61. One of their losses over this 6 game stretch was @ TCU 85-78. Tech, the #1 shooting team in the Big 12 (eFG%), had some very solid shooting numbers in that loss (52% from the field) but couldn’t overcome a HUGE deficit at the FT line. TCU attempted 32 freebies in that game (made 24) while Texas Tech only had 14 attempts the entire game (made 10). In a close game, that was the difference. It was an anomaly for Tech’s defense that rarely fouls allowing just 15% of their opponents points from the FT line which is top 30 in the nation. We don’t expect that discrepancy at home tonight. If the FT attempt numbers do favor Tech tonight, which they should, they are making 77% of their freebies in Big 12 play (1st in the conference) while TCU is making only 68% (last in the conference). TCU is off a 75-72 road win on Saturday @ KSU in a game the Wildcats made only 1 of 15 three point attempts yet still nearly won at home. Now the Horned Frogs are on the road again a few days later and this will be their 3rd road game in their last 4. Tough spot and we like Texas Tech to get a big win at home. |
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02-19-24 | Virginia v. Virginia Tech -3.5 | Top | 41-75 | Win | 100 | 7 h 60 m | Show |
#884 ASA TOP PLAY ON Virginia Tech -3.5 over Virginia, Monday at 7 PM ET - Tech has beaten UVA 3 straight years here at home and we like them to add another W to the ledger tonight. The Cavs have won 9 of 10 but they’ve played the easiest schedule in the ACC thus far (haven’t played Duke or UNC) and of those 10 games only 3 were played vs teams ranked in the top 5 in the conference. In those 3 games vs top 5 conference opponents, Virginia beat Clemson at home by 1, beat WF at home by 2, and lost at Pitt by 11. Tech has lost 4 of 5 but 3 of those losses came on the road and they also played both UNC & Duke (top 2 teams in the ACC) during that stretch. UVA struggles in general offensively but on the road is where they really have problems putting the ball in the basket shooting just 42% while averaging only 63 PPG. Their defense also allows 11 more PPG on the road where they are just 4-4 on the season. VT is 11-2 at home this year and their offense is tops in the ACC in eFG% and FT%. Their home losses came vs Duke & Miami and in their 4 point loss vs the Canes the Hokies played without their 2nd leading scorer and top 3 point shooter, Hunter Cattoor. In the first meeting between these 2 in state rivals, UVA won by 8 at home and they were +7 from the FT line making 11 compared to VT who only went to the line 4 times the entire game (4 for 4). That’s unlike Virginia to win at the FT line as only 14% of their points this season come from the stripe (355th) and when they get there they are a poor shooting team making only 64% on the season. If Tech can get to the stripe tonight, which we think they will at home, they should have a huge edge as they make 80% of their attempts on the season. We don’t think UVA will be able to keep up offensively on the road and we’ll grab the Hokies win and cover tonight. |
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02-18-24 | Utah v. UCLA -2 | Top | 70-69 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 34 m | Show |
#864 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UCLA -2 over Utah, Sunday at 7 PM ET - This young Bruins team was struggling to say the least in mid January when they lost 8 of 9. Head coach Mick Cronin turned this team around and they have now won 8 of their last 9 including 4 road games which is impressive. The Bruins only loss during their 8 game run was @ Arizona by 7 points and even in that game they played very well leading by as many as 19 points before the Wildcats furious comeback. They beat Colorado here on Thursday despite the Buffs hitting 53% of their shots which made the win even more impressive. Despite that shooting effort by the Buffs, UCLA’s defense has been lights out rising to #1 efficiency wise in the Pac 12 and in the 7 wins during their recent 9 game run only 1 team topped 66 points. The Utes are now the team in a free fall in Pac 12 play. They have now lost 5 of their last 6 and Utah is 0-6 SU on the road in conference play. Utah is on the road for the 2nd of back to back games after losing @ USC on Thursday who entered that game with a 3-10 Pac 12 record. The Utes lost key senior Rollie Worster (10 PPG and 5.5 APG) in mid January and they have since gone 3-6 SU. Utah doesn’t create turnovers defensively (last in the Pac 12), they aren’t a great rebounding team, and they only shoot 58% from the FT line in conference play. Not a great recipe for winning especially on the road. UCLA will have some extra motivation in this one after losing at Utah 90-44, their low point of the season, in mid January. That embarrassing loss propelled the Bruins to their current 8-1 run which started right after that game in Salt Lake City. Small number here and we’ll grab UCLA to win at home. |
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02-18-24 | Chattanooga v. Furman OVER 154.5 | Top | 65-82 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
#849/850 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 154.5 Points – Chattanooga vs Furman, Sunday at 2 PM ET - These are the 2nd and 3rd scoring teams in the SoCon both averaging right about 80 PPG on the season. Defensively both teams rank outside the top 200 in defensive efficiency so the strength is with the offense on both sides. Both have preferred a faster pace ranking 3rd in 4th in SoCon in tempo so we should have plenty of possessions. Neither team creates turnovers at a high rate so we should see many wasted trips on offense. Chattanooga’s offense is rolling scoring at least 79 points in 7 of their last 8 games. Furman was missing some key players early in the conference schedule including leading scorer Foster but he’s now been back for 9 games and the offense has been very good at home averaging 82 PPG on 48% shooting. When they met back in January the total was set at 155.5 and they didn’t come close with Chattanooga winning 73-58. Furman played that game without Foster and they combined to shoot only 37% from the field including a terrible 11 of 55 (20%) from beyond the arc. Neither team averaged 1.00 PPP in that game which is WAY below their averages of 1.16 PPP (UTC) and 1.08 PPP (Furman) in conference play. Both offenses play much better here and this one goes Over the Total. |
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02-17-24 | Michigan State v. Michigan +6.5 | Top | 73-63 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 11 m | Show |
#776 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Michigan +6.5 over Michigan State, Saturday at 8 PM ET - Michigan beat Wisconsin at home on Feb 7th and then went on the road and was beaten badly in back to back games @ Nebraska and @ Illinois. The Wolverines are still playing without their top player Dug McDaniel on the road (suspended for road games) but he can play in Michigan’s home games. They are a different team with McDaniel on the court as he averages 17 PPG, 5 assists per game and averages 35 minutes per game. This is Michigan’s Super Bowl to say the least. They have had a dismal season but this is the game they will give everything they have to try and top their in state rival. Sparty is far from a solid road team with a 2-5 SU record this year. Their road wins came @ Maryland by 2 points and @ PSU on Wednesday night so they are playing their 2nd straight road game. MSU has been shooting lights out during their current 5 games stretch (4-1 SU) hitting 50% overall and 41% from deep and they are due for some regression. On the road this year they are hitting just 44% of their shots and averaging only 68 PPG so the regression could come here. These 2 met on January 30th @ MSU and Michigan led at halftime despite not having McDaniel in the line up. The Spartans pulled away in the 2nd half but hit a ridiculous 56% from the filed and 43% from deep at home. MSU was just a 3 point favorite @ PSU on Wednesday and now they are laying nearly 7 vs their arch rival who only sits 12 spots lower than PSU in KenPom’s ratings. In their first meeting with Michigan, the Spartans were -11.5 and now laying 6.5 on the road with McDaniel back in the line up for the Wolverines. We like Michigan to give MSU all they can handle here and have a shot at the upset. Take the points. |
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02-17-24 | Fresno State v. Boise State -14 | Top | 66-90 | Win | 100 | 18 h 47 m | Show |
#762 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Boise State -14 over Fresno State, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - This one has blowout written all over it. Boise is off back to back road losses @ Colorado State and @ Utah State, 2 of the top teams in the MWC. Now they’ve had a full week off to get ready for a bounce back effort on Saturday. They are facing a Fresno team that just lost at home vs UNLV on Wednesday evening and this will be the Bulldogs 3rd road game in their last 4. On top of that, this Fresno team is decimated by injuries right now. They only have 5 players available who are in their regular rotation. They will be without 3 of their top 6 scorers in this game including their top 2 big men. Boise already was going to have a huge edge on the boards and now with 13+ boards on the bench for FSU it should be a gigantic edge. The Broncos already rank #1 in both offensive and defensive rebounding in conference play and they are facing a Fresno team that is 11th (last) in offensive board and 9th in defensive boards and that was WITH their 2 big men in the line up for nearly every game. Boise is 10-2 at home with their only losses coming in OT vs Utah State who is in 1st place and by 4 points vs UNLV in a game the Broncos only made 40% of their shots and just 29% of their 3’s. Fresno is only 4-8 in conference play and their 4 wins have come vs Air Force (twice) and San Jose State (twice) who have a combined conference record of 3-21. These two met earlier this season and Boise won on the road 72-68 despite the Bulldogs shooting 53% on their home floor. The players missing in this game for FSU combined for 32 points in that loss. The Fresno offense ranks 10th in the Mountain West in offensive efficiency and the average only 64 PPG on the road this season. With the anticipation of no inside game or offensive rebounding in this game they’ll have to light it up from beyond the arc to have a chance to stay close. That’ll be a problem vs a Boise State defense that ranks 1st in the MWC defending the 3 point line allowing only 29%. The Bronco offense averages over 80 PPG at home and they are rested and in a must win spot. The Bulldogs have played only 2 road games vs the top 5 teams in the conference this year (Boise falls into that category) and they lost those 2 games by 21 & 27 points and they were full strength for those games. This should be a blowout. |
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02-17-24 | Utah State v. Colorado State -6 | Top | 55-75 | Win | 100 | 16 h 51 m | Show |
#726 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Colorado State -6 over Utah State, Saturday at 5:30 PM ET - Utah State sits at 9-3 in MWC play and in 1st place. They’ve played the easiest strength of schedule so far in league play having faced only 4 games (out of 12) vs the top 5 teams in the conference. USU is 1-3 SU in those games with their only win coming at home by 5 points vs this CSU team. In that game, the Rams led on the road at halftime and for a majority of the 2nd half as well in their 77-72 loss where the Utah State fans stormed the court after the win. The difference in that game was at the FT line where USU made 20 freebies and CSU made only 4. Despite that huge disparity the game still was close throughout. Now we’re getting Colorado State back at home where they are undefeated in conference play including knocking off the 2 highest rated teams in the league (San Diego State & New Mexico) both by 8 points. They enter this game off a loss @ San Diego State on Tuesday (we were on the Aztecs in that game) blowing a 14 point halftime lead and scoring only 11 points the entire 2nd half. That should give them another shot of motivation for this one. At home this CSU team is great offensively. They already rank 14th nationally in eFG% but at home this team hits 53% of their shots on 1.17 PPP and averages 83 PPG. The Aggies are off an 8 point road win at Wyoming, one of the worst teams in the conference, and their overall road record is solid at 6-3. However, they haven’t beaten a single team on the road ranked above 90 (CSU is currently ranked 36th) and they lost to every top 50 team they’ve played on the road this season. Colorado State has played the tougher overall schedule this season and despite that their efficiency margin numbers are still better than Utah State. We like the Rams to get a big home win on Saturday. |
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02-16-24 | New Mexico v. San Diego State -6.5 | Top | 70-81 | Win | 100 | 21 h 42 m | Show |
#896 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Diego State -6.5 over New Mexico, Friday at 10 PM ET - Rinse and repeat. We’ve been on SDSU at home in revenge spots this season vs Utah State, Colorado State, and Nevada and picked up 3 double digit wins. We’re on them again on Friday night at home vs New Mexico who gave the Aztecs their worst loss of the season 88-70 back in mid January. It was the only double digit loss for San Diego State this season. Now they get the Lobos at home where they are basically unbeatable. The Aztecs are 12-0 SU at home this season with 11 of those 12 wins coming by double digits with their average margin of victory at +17 PPG. Going back further, they are a remarkable 50-2 SU their last 52 home games! These 2 are tied for 2nd place in the MWC at 8-4 but the Lobos have shown some signs of struggling after their red hot run in January. They had won 5 in a row in January but are just 2-2 their last 4 games, both home losses to Boise and UNLV which throws up a few red flags. Their 2 wins during that 4 game stretch came vs Wyoming, one of the worst teams in the league, and a 1 point win @ Nevada on Tuesday winning on a last second 3 pointer. You can bet the Aztecs will be fully focused on the defensive end after allowing the most points they have all season (in regulation) when they played @ NM. The Aztecs continue to lead the MWC in defensive efficiency allowing just 0.95 PPP on the season (top 20 nationally) and SDSU still has not allowed a single opponent to reach 1.00 PPP at home. They held a potent CSU offense to 11, yes 11, second half points earlier this week which was a win for us on SDSU. We’ll keep going to this well with SDSU at home in revenge mode. Lay it. |
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02-15-24 | Hofstra v. Drexel -3.5 | Top | 77-79 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 18 m | Show |
#750 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Drexel -3.5 over Hofstra, Thursday at 7 PM ET - We’re getting some nice line value in this game with Drexel laying a short number at home. That’s because the Dragons have lost 4 of their last 5 games while Hofstra has won 7 of their last 8. Hofstra has played only ONE team ranked in the top 200 over their last 8 games while Drexel has faced 4 opponents ranked inside the top 200 in their last 5 games. Their 4 losses during that stretch have all been on the road and they are entering this game off 3 straight losses (all on the road) so we expect a motivated effort here from the host. They are catching Hofstra in a rough scheduling spot as well playing their 3rd road game in a week. The Pride step into this game off back to back road wins last Thursday @ Hamptons and on Saturday @ North Carolina A&T. Nothing overly impressive about those 2 wins topping 2 of the worst teams in college basketball who rank 351st and 343rd respectively. Now Hofstra takes a huge step up in competition vs a home team that is very motivated to get a win. The 4 highest rated teams (per KenPom) in the CAA this year are UNC Wilmington, Charleston, Drexel, and Delaware. The Dragons have played host to 2 of those teams (UNCW & Delaware) and rolled to easy wins by 15 and 19 points. They were favored by 6 at home vs Delaware and now they are laying a full possession lower than that vs a Hofstra team that is rated lower. Both of these teams are 8-4 in CAA action but Drexel has played the #5 strength of schedule in conference play while Hofstra has played the easiest slate. Despite playing the much tougher slate in CAA play Drexel has better efficiency numbers with a +12.00 efficiency margin (offensive efficiency minus defensive efficiency) while Hofstra is +7.00 in that key category. Drexel is the better team here, in the much better situation, laying a small number at home. We’ll take it. |
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02-15-24 | Northwestern v. Rutgers -3.5 | Top | 60-63 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 51 m | Show |
#718 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Rutgers -3.5 over Northwestern, Thursday at 6:30 PM ET - Rutgers is peaking right now to say the least having won 3 in a row, 2 of those wins on the road, and in their most recent game on Saturday they rolled Wisconsin, one of the top teams in the Big 10, by 22 points. Much of that has been their outstanding defense holding 3 straight opponents to less than 60 points and all scored fewer than 0.87 PPP, but the offense received a boost as well. That’s because Temple transfer, Jeremiah Williams, finally was on the court the last 3 games after missing the first 20 games of the season. Williams has scored 42 points, grabbed 16 board, and had 9 assists in those 3 wins giving them a huge offensive boost. If the offense continues to improve, watch out. They should play well in this one vs a NW defense that has struggled all year ranking dead last in the Big 10 in eFG% allowed. The Rutgers defense ranks 2nd nationally in efficiency and have allowed opponents to shoot only 36% at home while giving up only 60 PPG. They are catching Northwestern in a bad spot. The Cats are off back to back home wins vs Nebraska & Penn State, however this team has been flat out poor on the road with a 1-5 SU record with their only road win coming @ PSU by 4 points in a game the Nittany Lions blew and 2nd half double digit lead. On top of that, NW will be playing without one of their key starters, Ty Berry, who injured his knew 2 games ago vs Nebraska and is now out of the season. He is their top 3 point shooter and averages 12 PPG. He would also be key in this game vs the Rutgers full court pressure so his absence will be a problem here. We feel the Scarlet Knights will be a problem for a number of teams down the stretch and call for a home win and cover on Thursday night. |
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02-14-24 | Iowa v. Maryland UNDER 146 | Top | 66-78 | Win | 100 | 19 h 44 m | Show |
#697/698 ASA PLAY ON Under 146 Points – Iowa vs Maryland, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - Iowa likes to play up tempo but Maryland will want to slow this game down (304th in tempo) and limit Iowa’s offensive possessions. We feel they’ll get the pace they want at home. Iowa’s offensive numbers are very solid but they are a completely differently team on the road on that end of the court. The Hawkeyes average 13 fewer PPG on the road this season and shoot just 45% compared to almost 50% at home. We highly doubt Iowa reaches their offensive averages on the road here vs a Maryland defense that ranks #1 in the Big 10 (conference games) in defensive efficiency, eFG% defense, and scoring defense. They also make offenses work very hard to get a shot off with the Terps allowing a shot every 18.2 seconds which is in the top 25 nationally. Offensively Maryland struggles so they need to win slow paced, low scoring games. They rank dead last in the Big 10 in scoring (conference games), 13th in offensive efficiency, and 13th in eFG%. The Terps games in conference play have averaged just 130 total points and that includes 2 OT games. If we subtract OT games, Maryland has not topped 142 total points in any conference game this season. When these 2 met in Iowa, where Hawks games average 172 total points, they put up just 136 (Maryland 69-67 win). |
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02-14-24 | VMI v. Furman OVER 164 | Top | 62-75 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 17 m | Show |
#659/660 ASA PLAY ON Over 163 Points – VMI vs Furman, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - These 2 met in mid January and the total was set at 166 and they scored 160 points. We’re getting this one a full 3 points lower than the first meeting (as of the opener which was 163) and we like the value on the Over. In the first meeting the 2 teams combined to shoot 43.7% from the field (nothing great) and the combined to make only 17 FT’s in the game and they still reached 160 points. Furman put up 100 points in that game (100-60 final score) which may seem like an anomaly but that is not the case when facing this VMI defense. In fact, the Cadets have played 12 conference games this season and allowed at least 100 points in nearly half of those games (5)! On the season VMI is allowing 94 PPG in SoCon play. They rank outside the top 300 in defensive efficiency, eFG% allowed, 2 point FG% allowed, and 3 point FG% allowed and they play at the 2nd fastest pace in the nation per KenPom. Needless to say we expect Furman, who averages over 80 PPG on the season, to possibly reach triple digits again. VMI’s offense doesn’t have good shooting numbers, however because they play so fast they average over 70 PPG on the season. They’ve scored at least 70 points in 7 of their 12 SoCon games this season. VMI is also facing a Furman defense that isn’t great ranking 321st in FG% allowed, 350th in FG made per game, and 331st in FG attempted per game. The Paladins also play very fast 59th in tempo per KenPom. We should have tons of offensive possessions in this game and the offenses should rule the day. Over is the play. |
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02-13-24 | Colorado State v. San Diego State -5.5 | Top | 55-71 | Win | 100 | 19 h 37 m | Show |
#636 ASA TOP PLAY ON San Diego State -5.5 over Colorado State, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - SDSU is looking for revenge in this one after losing 79-71 @ CSU a few weeks ago. We were on the Rams in that game, but a completely different situation for this one. In that game CSU was off back to back road losses and in a must win spot at home. Now they travel to San Diego State, who is off an OT road loss @ Nevada on Friday and now back home where they are pretty much unbeatable. They’ve responded after each of their first 5 losses with wins and 4 of those bounce backs have come by double digits. The Aztecs are 11-0 SU at home this season with 10 of those 11 wins coming by double digits with their average margin of victory at +17 PPG. Going back further, they are a remarkable 49-2 SU their last 51 home games. While San Diego State has been flawless at home, Colorado State is just 1-4 SU on the road in conference play with their only win coming @ Fresno State, the 3rd lowest rated team in the Mountain West. In the first meeting, CSU shot lights out at home hitting 54% of their shots, the Rams made 9 more FT’s in the 8 point win and averaged 1.20 PPP, the most SDSU has allowed to any opponent this season. Their home offensive numbers are very good but the Rams drop off quite drastically on the road. You can bet the Aztecs will be fully focused on the defensive end after that poor performance @ CSU. They lead the MWC in defensive efficiency allowing just 0.95 PPP on the season (top 20 nationally) and SDSU has now allowed a single opponent to reach 1.00 PPP at home. As we stated above the Aztecs home court advantage is among the best in college hoops and they’ve dominated CSU here winning 18 of the last 20 meetings. We’ll call for another win and cover for San Diego State tonight. |
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02-12-24 | Wake Forest +7.5 v. Duke | Top | 69-77 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 39 m | Show |
#881 ASA TOP PLAY ON Wake Forest +7 or +7.5 over Duke, Monday at 7 PM ET - Too many points here to give a WF team we think will give Duke problems. The Deacs are an outstanding shooting team (25th in eFG%) especially from deep where they hit 38% of their triples (17th in the nation). That plays well into Duke’s defensive weakness as the Devils rank outside the top 135 defending the arc. The Demon Deacons have a number of players that can put the ball in the basket (4 guys averaging at least 14 PPG) making them a very tough guard. Wake is also a great FT shooting team hitting over 80% and they can score points (81 PPG) which makes it very tough to pull away from this team. In fact, 6 of their 7 losses this year have come by less than this spread with their only really poor outing coming @ UNC where they lost by double digits and made only 3 of 20 triples on the night (15%). Duke is 12-2 at home this year but they’ve had a few close calls to go along with their losses here vs Pitt & Arizona. They barely squeaked by Clemson (by 1 point) and struggled with a bad Ga Tech team (won by 5). Wake will be the 2nd highest rated team (per KenPom) Duke has faced at home this season and they’ve only faced 2 top 30 teams at Cameron Indoor this year losing vs Arizona and beating Clemson by 1 on 2 FT’s with under 1 second remaining in the game. The Deacs have taken Duke to the wire at Cameron Indoor each of the last 2 seasons losing both by 2 points so they will not be intimidated in this venue. We think this one goes to the wire and getting 7 points is a solid cushion. |
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02-10-24 | Arizona v. Colorado -125 | Top | 99-79 | Loss | -125 | 21 h 53 m | Show |
#826 ASA TOP PLAY ON Colorado Pick -123 or -1.5 -115 over Arizona, Saturday at 10 PM ET - With an option of -1.5 -115 or money line of -123, the latter would be the best option of course for such a small variance. We like the Buffaloes to win here at home! This is a really rough spot for the Wildcats taking on a very good Colorado team. The Cats just played @ Utah on Thursday night and won in triple OT with 4 of their starters logging at least 44 minutes in high altitude. Now just 48 hours later they are @ Colorado, where the Buffs are a perfect 13-0 SU at home, in high altitude again which should wear on Arizona both physically and mentally. The Utah to Colorado road trip is already considered the most difficult in the conference and coming off triple OT doesn’t make it any easier. On top of that, the Wildcats have not had much success in Boulder losing 5 straight and 7 of the 9 meetings here since the Buffs joined the Pac 12 back in 2011. Giving CU some extra motivation is the fact they were absolutely steamrolled in Tucson earlier this year by a final score of 97-50, by far their worst outing of the season as each of their other 6 losses this season came by single digits. It wouldn’t have mattered on that day but it’s worth noting that CU played without 2 starters in that game, Williams and DaSilva, who combined to average 30 PPG & 9 RPG. Despite their triple OT win on Thursday, Arizona has been vulnerable on the road already losing @ Stanford, @ Washington State, and @ Oregon State, none of which are rated as high as this Colorado team. This is a huge game for CU’s NCAA tourney hopes and a win pulls them to within 1 game of 1st place in the Pac 12 behind this Arizona team. The Buffs hit the road for their next 2 games and they are 1-6 on the road this year adding more importance to getting a win here. KenPom has Colorado rated as the 2nd best team in the Pac 12 (as do we) behind Arizona and in this situational spot we don’t see the Cats winning this game. Take the home team. |
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02-10-24 | Georgia Tech v. Louisville OVER 151 | Top | 67-79 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 31 m | Show |
#773/774 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 151 Points – Georgia Tech vs Louisville, Saturday at 6:30 PM ET - Don’t look now but the Cards offense has been flat out really good over their last few games. They put up 101 points at home last weekend vs FSU and then followed that up with 92 points @ Syracuse on Wednesday. They averaged 1.25 and 1.17 PPP in those 2 games. While their offense seems to absolutely be peaking, the Cards defense stinks. They’ve allowed 90+ points in each of their last 2 games and they’ve given up at least 80 points in 7 of their 12 ACC games. They rank dead last in the ACC in defensive efficiency, eFG% allowed, and PPG allowed (81 PPG) in league games. Georgia Tech’s defense isn’t any better. They rank 13th (out of 14) in the ACC in defensive efficiency and PPG allowed (80 PPG). The Yellow Jackets have allowed at least 80 points in every ACC road game this season. So we have the 2 worst defenses in the conference going head to head here. We’re also going to have a faster paced game with Louisville really focusing on up tempo as of late and for the season they rank 71st in tempo. Tech doesn’t mind playing fast and their offense ranks 6th in the conference in eFG% and 3 point FG%. They should do some damage vs this poor Card defense. Tech’s road games in conference play have totaled 158, 158, 183, 163, and 153 points. Louisville’s home games in league play have totaled 193, 121 (vs Virginia great defense, slow pace), 152, 171, and 153 points. The opener of 151 is too low for these teams. We’ll go Over the total. |
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02-10-24 | Maryland +2.5 v. Ohio State | Top | 75-79 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 6 m | Show |
#707 ASA TOP PLAY ON Maryland +2.5 over Ohio State, Saturday at 4 PM ET - This OSU team has to be completely demoralized at this point. Not only have they lost 8 of their last 9 games, they just blew an 18 point 2nd half lead at home on Tuesday night and lost to Indiana 76-73. That was only the 2nd road win this season for the Hoosiers. Blowing a huge lead like that we just can’t imagine this plummeting OSU team is in the right frame of mind right now. One telling statistic in regards to the Buckeyes is the fact they are 3-9 on Big 10 play (last place) despite playing the easiest conference schedule per KenPom. That speaks volumes. Maryland is coming of 2 straight losses vs Michigan State and Rutgers but this team is improving. They’ve also proven they can win on the road already beating Illinois, UCLA, and Iowa away from home this season. We’re getting a massive defensive edge in this game by siding with Maryland. They rank #1 in the Big 10 (conference games) in defensive efficiency, eFG% allowed, and scoring allowing only 63 PPG. Compare that to the Buckeyes who are dead last in the conference in defensive efficiency, dead last in 3 point FG% allowed, and 12th in eFG% allowed while giving up 77 PPG in league play. The Terps offensive numbers are nothing to write home about but they are facing one of the worst defenses in the Big 10. The Bucks aren’t great offensively either ranking just 8th in the conference in offensive efficiency and 12th in eFG% but facing a high level defense. We don’t expect them to do much at all vs this Maryland defense. OSU is just 1-6 ATS as a favorite this season in Big 10 play and they’ve won only 3 of those games outright. We like Maryland here. |
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02-08-24 | Florida Atlantic v. UAB +6 | Top | 73-76 | Win | 100 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
#836 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UAB +6 over Florida Atlantic, Thursday at 9 PM ET - We feel FAU has been overvalued this season after their performance last year which took them to the Final 4. We feel they are especially vulnerable on the road where they have a winning record this year but barely at 3-2 SU (1-4 ATS). You read that correctly, the Owls have played only 5 true road games this year out of their 22 total games. The Blazers are playing their best basketball right now and they are a very dangerous team at home, especially as an underdog as they are 8-1 ATS when getting points this season. They struggled a bit early and lost 3 home games prior to December 2nd, but they’ve since won 7 in a row at home and they are 53-9 SU here since the start of the 2020 season. Even last year when FAU was Final 4 caliber, they lost by 9 when they traveled to UAB and in fact they’ve never won at Bartow Arena (0-7 SU). The Blazers are coming off a 3 point loss @ SMU, the 2nd highest rated team in the AAC. They blew a 12 point lead with under 10 minutes to play in the game in that loss. That was 1 of only 3 losses for UAB since mid December (10-3 SU record) and the others were both on the road as well @ Charlotte and @ FAU, tonight’s opponent. In that first meeting back in mid January, FAU hit 49% of their shots while the Blazers made only 39% and just 19% from 3 (5 of 26). UAB is 6-3 in conference play despite playing the 2nd most difficult schedule in AAC play having already faced all 4 league teams ranked in the top 100 nationally (UAB has 2-2 record in those games). This will be their 4th straight games vs those top 4 AAC teams and in their previous 3 they beat Memphis and North Texas and took SMU to the wire as we mentioned. We give the Blazers a great shot to win here and if it’s tight as we expect we get some extra cushion with the points. |
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02-08-24 | Samford v. NC-Greensboro -115 | Top | 78-69 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 23 m | Show |
#790 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UNC Greensboro Pick or -1 over Samford, Thursday at 7 PM ET - We played against this UNCG team on Sunday @ Furman and picked up a loss as the Spartans upset the Paladins on the road 89-87. We were very impressed with that win as UNCG was in a tough spot playing the 2nd of back to back road games and their 3rd in 4 games away from home. They also had this huge revenge game on deck but they stayed focused on a full strength Furman team that was undervalued (due to earlier season injuries) but now back at full strength. The Paladins, with their injury woes behind them, had won 6 of 7 games entering Sunday including topping Samford by 10 at home. Impressive win for UNCG. Now they are back at home where the Spartans are 9-1 this season and 20-4 since the start of last season. One of those 4 home losses in the last 2 seasons was vs this Samford team last year as Greensboro lost by 2 missing a 3 point shot at the buzzer which would have given them the win giving the Spartans a little extra motivation along with the loss they suffered @ Samford earlier this season. UNCG is hitting their stride winning 8 of their last 10 games and they sit 1 game behind Samford for 1st place in the SoCon so a win here pushes them into a tie at the top of the league. The Bulldogs offensive numbers for the season are impressive but they drop WAY off on the road. At home Samford averages a ridiculous 95 PPG but in their 9 road games they’ve only averaged 72 PPG. They make 45% of their triples at home and that drops to only 34% away from home. It’s also the 2nd of back to back road games for Samford and their 3rd in 4 on the road. Now they take those deflated road numbers into Greensboro where the Spartans have been terrific. They’ve outscored opponents by an average score of 85-66 at home while shooting 51% overall and 44% from 3. The Bulldogs were +3 @ Furman (lost by 10), +2 @ Western Carolina, and +2 @ Chattanooga in league play, all teams rated below UNCG yet the Spartans are a lighter favorite (line opened UNCG -1). We like the home team to get this win on Thursday night |
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