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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-15-21 | South Dakota State v. Missouri State -2.5 | Top | 63-75 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
#660 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Missouri State -2.5 over South Dakota State, Wed at 7 PM ET - Terrible spot for South Dakota State here. They are playing their 3rd straight road game and coming off an upset win over Washington State (game played in Spokane). They won by just 3 points in a game they shot 62% from beyond the arc with Washington State hitting only 25% of their triples. Wash State also played without one of their better players (Jackson) in that game. Prior to that win, SDSU lost @ Idaho by 14 on Wednesday. That’s an Idaho team that ranks below 300 and whose only win previous to beating the Jackrabbits was over something called George Fox University. Missouri State returns all 5 starters from a team that went 17-7 last season. One of those starters is out with an injury but they are experienced on their bench as well. The Bears are currently rated as the 2nd best team in the MVC only behind Loyola Chicago. They are a solid shooting team that is facing a most likely tired and terrible defensive team in South Dakota State – ranks below 250th in most major defensive categories. If they need to protect a lead late MSU hits 80% from the line as a team. Great spot for the Bears facing a SDSU team that has traveled to Idaho, then Washington, and now Missouri all in the span of a week. |
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12-14-21 | Georgia State v. Mississippi State -9 | Top | 50-79 | Win | 100 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
#616 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Mississippi State -9 over Georgia State, Tuesday at 8 PM ET - MSU is off back to back losses vs Minnesota & Colorado State and they really need this win at home. Each of those losses was decided in the final seconds as MSU was tied with Minnesota with under 1 minute remaining and they led CSU by 8 with less than 6 minutes remaining and lost by 3. The Bulldogs were 6-1 SU prior to those losses with their only setback coming vs Louisville. Georgia State is 1-3 SU on the road this year with their only win coming in OT @ High Point. The 2 top 100 teams they faced on the road both routed this team with Richmond winning by 16 and Rhode Island winning by 35. Both of those teams rank lower than this Mississippi State team. GSU plays terrible defense which is why they struggle on the road. The Panthers rank 357th in eFG% defense and 355th in 3 point FG defense allowing teams to shoot a ridiculous 43% from deep. MSU is 68th nationally in defensive efficiency and will be the highest rated defense that Georgia State has faced this year. MSU also has a huge size advantage (69th nationally in average height with GSU 348th in that category) and should control the glass on both ends. The Bulldogs shoot very well at home (50% overall & 41% from deep) and they will have their way vs this poor GSU defense. Must win for MSU off 2 losses and they play with urgency tonight. |
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12-11-21 | Houston v. Alabama -1 | Top | 82-83 | Push | 0 | 14 h 5 m | Show |
#716 ASA TOP PLAY ON Alabama -1 over Houston, Saturday at 10 PM ET - Big game here and we give Bama the edge at home. The Crimson Tide have a record of 16-1 SU at home since start of last year and they are 12-5 ATS in those games. Their average margin of victory in those 17 home games was +15 points per game. This year they are 4-0 here with an average margin of victory of +19 points per game. They have had a week off since beating Gonzaga in Seattle 91-82 last Saturday. The Tide dominated that game vs last year’s National Champions holding as much as an 18 point lead in the 2nd half. That that game was in Gonzaga’s back yard. This will be their first home game since November 17th when they beat Oakland, the top team in the Horizon League, by 27 points. We absolutely respect Houston and know they are a very good team, but this will be their first true road game of the season. It’s also been almost 3 weeks since they’ve played a legitimate opponent with their last 3 games coming against teams ranked 336th, 314th, and 231st. The Cougars have 3 wins vs top 100 opponents this year, however all 3 of those teams are struggling this season (Virginia, Butler, and Oregon). They lost to Wisconsin on a neutral court for their only setback. Houston had an outstanding 28-4 record last season but they only played 8 true road games and they were 5-3 SU in those games with losses to East Carolina, Tulsa, and Wichita State. Two evenly matched teams here and home court will be a huge factor. Bama gets the win. |
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12-09-21 | Texas v. Seton Hall +2.5 | Top | 60-64 | Win | 100 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
#852 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Seton Hall +2.5 over Texas, Thursday at 6:30 PM ET - Wrong team favored here in our opinion. This line opened Texas -2 and we have Seton Hall power rated as a 2-point favorite. Texas is 6-1 but they’ve played only 1 team ranked inside the top 185 this season. That was a double digit loss vs Gonzaga. The Horns also have played one 1 road game this year and haven’t been away from home since November 13th. This is a tough spot for them to be favored against an undervalued Seton Hall team. We were on the Pirates earlier this year when they were a dog @ Michigan and won outright. They’ve played the tougher schedule having already faced 2 top 20 teams and 5 ranked inside the top 140. Seton Hall’s only loss this season was by 3 points vs Ohio State, who just beat Duke a week ago. The Pirates are one of the more experienced teams in the nation with 4 senior starters and 3 more upperclassmen who contribute off the bench. They play outstanding defense (30th in efficiency & 15th in eFG% defense) and they are one of the better rebounding teams in the country. The Longhorns are integrating a number of new transfers into the rotation and new head coach Chris Beard is still perfecting his schemes on both ends of the court with this team. Seton Hall is by far the best team Texas has played in nearly a month and we don’t see the Horns winning this game on the road. Take the points. |
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12-08-21 | Marquette +2.5 v. Kansas State | Top | 64-63 | Win | 100 | 13 h 60 m | Show |
#711 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Marquette +2.5 over Kansas State, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - We like this spot for Marquette coming off a loss on Saturday @ Wisconsin. The Golden Eagles have been better than expected this year with 3 wins already over top 100 opponents including Illinois, West Virginia, and Ole Miss. KSU is coming off a big win over in-state foe Wichita State. Those 2 hadn’t played in 18 years and a big deal was made of that game so KSU could be a little flat here. There is also a good chance they’ll be without their leading scorer Pack (16 PPG) who is dealing with a concussion. Prior to their win over Wichita all of KSU’s wins were vs teams ranked 288th or lower. The only 2 top 100 teams they faced prior to Sunday but ended in losses for the Wildcats (Illinois & Arkansas). KSU’s overall defensive numbers are solid but in their 5 wins they’ve faced 3 teams with an offensive efficiency rank of below 300 and their opponents average offensive efficiency rank in those win is 278th. Marquette ranks in the top 100 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Marquette remains undervalued having already won 3 games outright as an underdog this season. The Golden Eagles will give the Cats all they can handle here and we give them a great shot at the outright upset. Take the points. |
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12-07-21 | Bradley v. Toledo -6 | Top | 65-67 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
#610 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Toledo -6 over Bradley, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - The Rockets are coming off a 13 point loss @ Michigan State over the weekend and we look for them to bounce back with a home win. Speaking of him, Toledo is just happy to be playing a home game as they’ve played only 2 of their 8 games this season at home. Even with that, they have a solid 6-2 record on the season. Speaking of home games, the Rockets have won 17 of their last 18 games at Savage Arena with 15 of those 17 wins coming by at least 6 points which would give them a cover tonight (spread as of this writing is -5.5). They return a number of key players from a team that finished last season with a 21-9 record. Bradley has had to replace a number of their top players from a year ago with 8 new players on the team. After starting the year with a 1-5 record, the Braves have won 3 straight but those wins were all at home and 2 of those wins came vs teams ranked below 300. The one game they did win vs a solid opponent was a 2 point win at home over Northern Iowa. Bradley was +4.5 at home in that game and now they are +5.5 on the road vs a Toledo team we have power rated higher than UNI. Value on the host here. Bradley has only played 1 true road game this season and that was their season opener in early November, a 16 point loss @ South Dakota State. They have a record of 2-10 SU on the road since the beginning of last season. One huge advantage for Toledo here is at the FT line. They get there a lot with 22% of their points coming from the stripe (40th in CBB). Bradley sends teams to the line a lot with 23.6% of their opponent’s points coming from the line (20th most in CBB). Toledo shoots 78% from the line. Bradley shoots 58% from the line and they don’t get there much (14% of points from FT line – 309th). Rockets win and cover at home. |
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12-06-21 | Illinois v. Iowa -2 | Top | 87-83 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 26 m | Show |
#872 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Iowa -2 over Illinois, Monday at 7 PM ET - We went against Iowa on Friday night when they traveled to Purdue and the Hawks impressed us. They lost by just 7 facing the #1 team in the country in one of the toughest venues in the nation. A very good 3-point shooting team (37th best nationally), Iowa hit only 23% from beyond the arc in that game and made 12 fewer FT’s than the Boilers and still had a shot trailing by 2 points with 2:30 remaining. Not only that, they did so without their star player Keegan Murray (25 PPG & 9 RPG) who was out with an ankle injury. Murray is scheduled to be back in the line up in this game. The Illini have played 3 games away from their home arena this year and it hasn’t been impressive. They lost @ Marquette, lost by 20 on a neutral site vs Cincinnati and beat Kansas State by 8 on a neutral. They’ve struggled all year with turnovers (308th in TO percentage) and now they face a pressing Iowa team that is very good at creating turnovers (37th nationally). It won’t help that the Illini will most likely be without their starting PG Curbelo who has a neck issue. The home team has won 6 straight in this series and the host has covered 6 of the last 7. With this number currently sitting at -2, we most likely just need Iowa to win this game at home where they’ve won 33 of their last 36 games. Take the Hawkeyes. |
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12-03-21 | Iowa v. Purdue -11.5 | Top | 70-77 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 9 m | Show |
#868 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Purdue -11.5 over Iowa, Friday at 9 PM ET - This is a statement game for the Boilers. It’s their first Big 10 game of the season and a revenger at that after getting beat 70-55 @ Iowa in their only meeting last year. We have the Boilers currently rated as the #1 team in the nation right now. They are 6-0 on the season with an average winning margin of +28 points. That includes 3 top 40 teams as they’ve topped UNC, Villanova, and Florida State. At home they have won by the following margins - 28 (vs a very solid Florida State team), 57, 44, 25, and 29 points and all but one of those games was vs teams ranked inside the top 195. The Boilers rank #1 nationally in offensive efficiency, #2 in 3-point %, #2 in 2-point % and they make 76% of their FT’s. Iowa is 7-0 on the season but they’ve played just 1 team ranked inside the top 200 and that was a 1-point win vs Virginia who is solid but not great this season. Purdue has been home since November 21st while Iowa is playing their 2nd road game this week. We think the Hawks are overvalued right now. They are undefeated but lost 3 of their top 5 players from last year’s team including national player of the year Luka Garza. Purdue’s Mackey Arena has not been kind to the Hawkeyes as they’ve won just ONCE there since 2008 (1-11 SU record). The last 3 meetings Purdue has won by margins of 36, 16 and 22 points. Boilers roll to a big win here. |
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11-29-21 | Iowa v. Virginia +1.5 | Top | 75-74 | Win | 100 | 23 h 7 m | Show |
#806 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Virginia +1.5 over Iowa, Monday at 7:00 PM ET - We understand Iowa is looking great early in the season with a 6-0 record. They’ve played all of those games at home and haven’t faced a single team ranked inside the top 200. The best defense they’ve faced was ranked 168th in efficiency and 5 of the 6 defenses they’ve faced rank 200 or lower. Tonight comes a whole different animal. Iowa is on the road for the first time and facing one of the top defenses in the country. UVA ranks 25th in defensive efficiency and they are playing better than that ranking right now. After a rare rough start to the season on the defensive end, they have held their last 4 opponents to 0.70, 0.71, 0.84, and 0.85 points per possession. That includes games vs Power 5 opponents Providence and Georgia. We’re not sure what to make of Iowa quite yet. We feel they are overvalued right now for sure. The Hawkeyes lost 3 of their top players from last year’s team including Luka Garza who was national player of the year. Our ratings have UVA as the favorite here. The Cavs have only been a home dog FOUR times since the start of the 2011 season (vs UNC (twice), Duke, and FSU). They are 4-0 ATS in those games and they are 59-7 SU at home their last 66. We like the value here with Virginia as a home dog. |
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11-26-21 | Alabama -6.5 v. Drake | Top | 80-71 | Win | 100 | 4 h 15 m | Show |
#865 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Alabama -6.5 over Drake, Friday at 4:30 PM ET - We like the value with Bama here coming off their first loss of the season yesterday. We have the Tide as a 9 point favorite and the line is sitting at -6. Alabama has top 10 talent and they’ve proven that this year with blowout wins over solid competition. Prior to losing 72-68 vs Iona yesterday, the Crimson Tide had faced 3 teams ranked inside the top 135 this season and destroyed all of them. They beat La Tech (2nd highest rated team in Conference USA / 24-8 record last year) by 29, topped Oakland (highest rated team in the Horizon) by 27, and beat South Dakota State (by far the highest rated team in the Summit) by 16. Yesterday they ran into a senior dominated Iona team that had their eyes set on this game after losing to Alabama in the first round of the NCAA tourney last season. Bama led for most of the game but a late run by Iona got the tight win. We respect Drake as one of the top mid majors this season but they’ve struggled with the 2 top 100 teams they’ve faced this year losing yesterday to Belmont and struggling to beat Richmond at home by 3. The Bulldogs have relied heavily on the 3 point shot this season (37% of their points / 71st nationally) but today the face one of the best teams in the nation at defending the arc. The Tide currently rank 13th in the nation allowing just 23% from deep and it’s no fluke as they ranked 10th in the country in the same category last year. Drake is coming off a great season in 2020, however they didn’t face a single top 100 team in the non-conference last year and the best team in their league, Loyola Chicago, beat them in 2 of their 3 match ups last year. Both Loyola wins were by double digits and Drake’s lone win vs the Ramblers was by 1 point. Drake runs into a buzzsaw here vs one of the more talented teams in the country. Lay it with Alabama. |
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11-23-21 | Wisconsin v. Houston -7.5 | Top | 65-63 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 56 m | Show |
#656 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Houston -7.5 over Wisconsin, Tuesday at 5 PM ET - Houston was a Final 4 team a year ago and they return 4 of their top 7 players. They also have added 2 key transfers that play significant minutes including an All Conference caliber player from Texas Tech (Kyler Edwards). They dominated Butler from start to finish yesterday on their way to an 18 point win. Their game prior to that they crushed Virginia by 20 points – game was played last week. The Cougs are a veteran team with all juniors and seniors in the starting line up. Wisconsin is very young this year after losing 4 of 5 starters from a year ago. The Badgers got behind by 16 points yesterday vs Texas A&M and made a massive comeback to pick up an easy win. A&M wanted to run and they got this young Wisconsin team to play their pace early on before HC Gard made some adjustments to slow the game down. The Aggies offense does not excel in the half court and that allowed Wisconsin to make their comeback. Today they face a very physical, mature team that also likes to play a slow tempo. UW is not a great shooting team this year (284th in eFG%) and they are facing a defense that ranks 3rd nationally in efficiency after ranking 9th a year ago. The Cougars, on the other hand, are a much better shooting team ranking 10% better eFG% and 10% better from 3-point land when compared to Wisconsin. This is a very tough match up for a UW team that is still learning the ropes. Take Houston. |
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11-22-21 | Providence +1.5 v. Northwestern | Top | 77-72 | Win | 100 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
#873 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Providence +1.5 over Northwestern, Monday at 9:30 PM ET - The wrong team is favored in this one. Our power ratings have Providence as a 3 point favorite on a neutral court. NW is 4-0 but they’ve played the easiest schedule in college basketball thus far. The Cats have played all home games and haven’t faced a team ranked inside the top 260 and 3 of their 4 opponents were ranked outside the top 315. Providence is also 4-0 but 3 of their 4 opponents are ranked higher than anyone NW has played this season. The Friars went to Wisconsin and won which is never easy to do. The led the Badgers for most of the game and the final score of 63-58 was closer than the game really was as Providence led by 13 with 6:00 remaining. The Friars are a veteran team with 4 seniors and 1 junior in the starting line up. They are a very good interior offense (61% from inside the arc – 11th best nationally) with big man Nate Watson leading the way. He’s averaging 21 PPG and has made a remarkable 74% of his shots inside the arc (34 of 46). We don’t think NW has anyone that can guard him. Because Providence is more of an interior team, they get to the FT line a lot already getting to the stripe 52 more times than their opponents this season. With a solid defense on top of that (79th in defensive efficiency) this is a team that should play very well on the road this year as they don’t rely on 3-pointers. NW leaving their campus for the first time (game is in Newark NJ) playing a team that is far superior to anyone they’ve played will be a problem for the Cats tonight. Providence is the play here. |
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11-20-21 | North Carolina v. Purdue -5.5 | Top | 84-93 | Win | 100 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
#658 ASA TOP PLAY ON Purdue -5.5 over North Carolina, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET - The Boilers are loaded this year returning 4 of 5 starters from last year and many of their key reserves. They have 2 of the top players in the Big 10 in Trevion Williams and Jaden Ivey. We had them rated as the best team in the Big 10 entering the season and they haven’t disappointed. They have played 3 teams ranked inside the top 190 to start the season and won those games by 29, 25, and 44 points. Their most recent win was 96-52 vs Wright State, a team that is ranked as the top team in the Horizon League and finished last year with an 18-6 record. UNC, on the other hand, hasn’t played a team ranked inside the top 225 and has had some fairly close games winning by 7, 11 and 16 points. UNC is coming off an 18-11 season, however they were just 3-7 SU vs teams ranked inside the top 40 last year which we’d consider solid competition. Purdue is currently ranked 3rd in the country on Ken Pom. Purdue HC Matt Painter always has his teams playing solid, aggressive defense. After 3 games this year (vs better competition that UNC) the Boilers have allowed just 36% from the field and rank 19th in defensive efficiency. They have finished in the top 40 in defensive efficiency for 6 straight years under Painter. UNC, again vs all opponents ranked 200 or lower, are allowing almost 44% from the field (ranked 236th) and they have allowed at least 83 points in 2 of their 3 games. They now face a Purdue offense that has scored 90+ in every game this season. Purdue is the much better team here and we’ll lay the points. |
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11-18-21 | Marquette v. Ole Miss -3.5 | Top | 78-72 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 32 m | Show |
#760 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Ole Miss -3.5 over Marquette, Thursday at 7 PM ET - Tough spot for a very young Marquette team (352nd in experience – last in the nation) coming off a huge upset on Monday at home vs Illinois. The Golden Eagles were down 12 midway through the 2nd half and made a nice comeback to beat the Illini 67-66. Illinois played without their best player, All American center Cockburn. Illinois took 12 more shots, 7 more 3 point attempts, and creamed Marquette on the boards with a +20 differential. The Illini simply shot poorly hitting only 37% of their shots overall and 37% of their 3-point attempts. Prior to that win Marquette struggled at home vs New Hampshire (won by 5) and SIU Edwardsville (won by 11). In their game vs SIUE, who is ranked 321st nationally, Marquette never led by more than 13 in a game they were favored by 21. It was a 5 point game with 2:00 minutes remaining. SIUE followed that 11 point loss @ Marquette by losing to 357th ranked Chicago St by double digits. A Chicago St team that had a record of 10-92 the previous 4 seasons. Ole Miss has beaten two poor opponents handily. They are much more experienced starting 5 upperclassmen and they added some key transfers from Duke & Miami FL in the off season who are solid contributors already. They are a top notch defensive team (25th in defensive efficiency last year & 24th after 2 games this year) that will give this young Marquette team big problems on offense. We’ll lay the small number. |
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11-16-21 | Seton Hall +9 v. Michigan | Top | 67-65 | Win | 100 | 25 h 3 m | Show |
#643 ASA TOP PLAY ON Seton Hall +9 over Michigan, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - This line opened up Michigan -10.5 and immediately dropped. We agree with the move as we pegged Seton Hall as a surprise team this season. The Pirates are 2-0 including a 36 point win over Ivy League favorite Yale who has a very solid and veteran team. The Hall is very deep this year with key transfers from Syracuse and USF joining the rotation. They already have 7 different players that have scored double digits this year (in 2 games) and head coach Willard will go 10 deep. They also match up well with Michigan’s top player, big man Dickinson, as the Pirates can run 4 solid big men at him throughout the game. Michigan is also 2-0 but they lost many key players from last year’s team (Livers, Smith, Brown, Wagner, and Davis) and might be a bit overrated entering the season. They struggled at home with Buffalo already this year winning by 12. The Bulls shot just 41% in that game and just 18% from 3 but were able to hang around despite Michigan making 54% of their shots and 40% of their 3’s. The Wolverines have also been terrible at the FT line this year making only 35 of their 62 attempts (56%) which could be their downfall in a tight game. Seton Hall keeps this close and covers. |
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04-05-21 | Baylor +4.5 v. Gonzaga | Top | 86-70 | Win | 100 | 24 h 33 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON Baylor +4.5 over Gonzaga, Monday at 9:20 PM ET - Our power ratings have Gonzaga as a slight 2 point favorite on a neutral court so we feel there is value with Baylor here. We’ve spoken of the Bears Covid break a number of times this tourney and we feel that situation has this team undervalued. Prior to their 3-week hiatus we had Baylor and the Zags rated almost dead even with our power ratings. Baylor was 17-0 before their break with 15 of those wins coming by double digits and the other 2 coming by 8 points each. They were dominant in the Big 12, one of the top few leagues on the country. They lost much of their momentum not playing or practicing for the 3 week span in February and lost 2 games leading into the Big Dance. They have since regained their form and rolled through the NCAA tourney winning 5 games by an average of 15 PPG including topping 4 top 20 teams (Ken Pom ratings). They led by at least 18 points in 4 of their 5 tourney games and their largest deficit has been just 7 points. The Bears defense has been fantastic holding 4 of their 5 opponents under 1.00 points per possession and they’ve been lock down from beyond the arc allowing only 27% in the tourney. Offensively they rank 2nd nationally in efficiency and #1 in 3-point percentage. The Bears have already faced 3 of the top 15 defenses in the nation in the NCAA tourney and scored 76, 78, and 81 points in those 3 games and averaged at least 1.19 PPP in each of those 3 games. They are tough to stop with 5 regulars hitting at least 39% from behind the arc. Gonzaga showed some vulnerability to a solid 3-point shooting team on Saturday barely getting by UCLA in OT and allowing the Bruins to hit 47% of their 3’s. UCLA was ranked 35th nationally in 3-point percentage and the Zags had trouble containing their guards and now they face the best 3-point shooting team in the nation with multiple top notch guards including All Americans Butler and Mitchell. Gonzaga hasn’t seen a team that shoots this well all season long. They have faced just ONE team this year that ranks inside the top 20 in three point shooting and that was Iowa early in the season and the Hawkeyes scored 88 points on them. Gonzaga is great offensively as well but the way the Baylor defense has been playing, we like them to be able to do enough on that end of the court to stay in this game the entire way. The way to potentially beat Gonzaga is to keep up with them offensively which UCLA nearly did on Saturday. Baylor is a better offensive team than UCLA and they’ll give the Bulldogs all they can handle here. The Bears haven’t been an underdog the entire season and their lowest number as a favorite was -4 and that was vs a difficult Big 12 slate. Now they are getting +4.5 which is a full 8.5 points off their lowest spread of the season. We fully believe Baylor has a great shot to win this game so we’ll grab the generous points. |
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04-03-21 | Houston v. Baylor -5 | Top | 59-78 | Win | 100 | 47 h 40 m | Show |
#802 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Baylor -5 over Houston, Saturday at 5:14 PM ET - Houston has had an easy road to this point and we think it ends on Saturday. The Cougars NCAA tourney opponents have been Cleveland State (170th on Ken Pom), Rutgers (38th), Syracuse (41st), and Oregon State (48th). As you can see they have yet to play anyone ranked inside the top 38 nationally and 2 of those wins were tight beating Rutgers by 3 (Houston trailed by 10 with less than 8:00 remaining in the game) and Oregon State by 6. Baylor, on the other hand, has played 3 teams ranked inside the top 20 in the Dance (Wisconsin, Arkansas, and Villanova) and all of their wins have come by 9 points or more with 3 coming by double digits. Baylor has absolutely earned their way to this point while Houston has had a number of breaks. We’ve mentioned it a few times during the tourney but Baylor was a perfect 17-0 and considered the top team in the country with Gonzaga for much of the season. They went into a 3 week Covid break with no games and almost no practices during the month of February and they came out of that rusty losing 2 of their final 7 games through the Big 12 tourney. Well they are back to their early season form as we mentioned handling 3 very good teams with ease. While Houston has better overall defensive numbers on the season, we rate these 2 defenses about dead even. Baylor played the much tougher offensive schedule and struggled defensively when coming back from Covid which hurt their overall numbers. During the Dance they’ve allowed just 43% from the field and 3 of their 4 opponents have failed to get to 1.00 points per possession. The Cougars have also played very well defensively in the tournament but they have yet to face an offense ranked higher than 23rd in efficiency the Dance. Now they face a Baylor offense that is 3rd nationally in efficiency, 7th in eFG%, and 1st in 3-point percentage hitting a ridiculous 41% of their shots from deep as a team. The Bears have a big edge offensively in this game. Houston is not a very good shooting team ranking below 110th in eFG%, 2-point %, and 3-point % nationally. They rely on offensive rebounding to get extra possessions and they are very good at it. The problem here is Baylor is the 7th best offensive rebounding team in the country so while Houston will do damage on the offensive glass, so will the Bears. No advantage there. Since their opening win of the tournament vs Cleveland State, the Cougars are averaging just 64 PPG in their last 3 which they were able to win by shutting down the opposing offense. That won’t happen here. Baylor is averaging 83 PPG on the season and they’ve scored at least 76 points in 3 of their 4 tourney games. We have a hard time believing Houston can keep up offensively in this game. While Houston has had a fairly easy run to the Final 4, they’ve also failed to play a team currently ranked inside the top 20 (Ken Pom) all season long! As we mentioned above, the Bears have played 3 of those teams (ranked inside top 20) in the Big Dance alone. Now the Cougs face #2 Baylor who is back at the top of their game. We’ll lay the points here as Baylor moves on to the National Championship game. |
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03-30-21 | USC +8.5 v. Gonzaga | Top | 66-85 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 49 m | Show |
#657 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* USC +8.5 over Gonzaga, Tuesday at 7:15 PM ET - We feel that besides Baylor, this USC team matches up as well as anyone with Gonzaga. We like the Trojans to give the undefeated Zags a run for their money tonight. We realize Gonzaga has beaten every team they’ve played, with the exception of West Virginia, by double digits. Let’s also keep in mind this USC team will be the best and most talented team the Zags have faced this season. Trojan center Mobley is projected as a top 3 pick in the NBA draft and will give Drew Timme and company all they can handle inside. The Zags score the vast majority of their points inside with 57% coming inside the arc (29th nationally) and just 25% from 3-point land (309th nationally). This USC defense is very good (4th nationally in defensive efficiency) and matches up perfectly ranking #1 in the country at defending inside the arc allowing opponents just 41% shooting. Mobley is a supreme defender and shot blocker and Gonzaga has not seen a team that defends inside like the Trojans. The Bulldogs offense has been great this year but they’ve only seen 2 defenses all SEASON ranked in the top 25 in efficiency (St Mary’s and Kansas). This USC defense is a level up from anything they’ve faced. Gonzaga has topped Oklahoma (7th best team in the Big 12) & Creighton (3rd best team in the Big East) their last 2 games. Impressive but how about USC’s current run? They have topped Drake (2nd best team in the MVC), Kansas, and Oregon all by double digits as well and by an average of 21 PPG! They are a very good offensive team (14th nationally in efficiency) that is peaking right now scoring 85 vs Kansas & 82 vs Oregon in their last 2 games. The Trojans are the 2nd tallest team in the nation giving them the height advantage which is a rarity vs Gonzaga. Not only will they give the Bulldogs a test defensively, USC is a team that can keep up on the scoreboard with their offense humming right now averaging 80 PPG, 52% shooting overall, and 47% from 3 over their last 5 games. The Pac 12 has shown to be a top notch conference with 3 teams landing in the Elite 8 and the Trojans are the best of the bunch in that league. This one goes to the wire and we’ll gladly take the points with USC. |
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03-29-21 | Oregon State v. Houston -7.5 | Top | 61-67 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Houston -7.5 over Oregon State, 7:15 PM ET - Oregon State has been a fantastic story this tournament but the Cinderella story is about to end tonight. Clearly the Pac12 has represented extremely well in the post season but the Beavers were the worst of the bunch to get in. Consider this, the Beavers were just plus +6 points against Oklahoma State (ranked 63rd) and +7 versus Loyola Chicago (ranked 10th per KenPom) and now a slightly bigger dog against the 3rd ranked team in Houston. Even though Loyola had some better season statistics, they played a much weaker schedule than say Oklahoma State so let’s look specifically at that game for a comparison with this contest. Oregon State really struggled with Oklahoma State’s pressure defense for a large part of the game but the Cowboys literally couldn’t make a shot, shooting just 28% in the game. That was an aberration considering the Beavers rank 203rd in FG% defense. Houston is 90th in the nation in forcing turnovers, has the 6th best defensive efficiency rating in college hoops and is #1 defensively in EFG%. The Oregon State will have a hard time getting going offensively against this defense, especially considering they are 213th in points scored per game, 226th in field goal percentage at just 43.2%. Houston has the 8th best offensive efficiency numbers in the nation in large part to their offensive rebounding which is 2nd in the country. Houston just beat a red hot Syracuse team handily and will get a double-digit win in this one. |
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03-28-21 | Oregon v. USC -2 | Top | 68-82 | Win | 100 | 15 h 47 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* USC -2 over Oregon, 9:45 PM ET - When these two teams last met USC beat Oregon 72-58. That was Oregon’s last regular season loss in their last eleven regular season games (they did lose to Oregon State in the conference tourney). The Trojans have a big edge in this game on the interior with the Mobley brothers who stand 6’10 and 7-feet tall. USC is 24th in rebounding compared to a Ducks team that ranks 253rd. USC is great defensively with the #1 ranked 2-point percentage defense in the country allowing just 41.4%. The Trojans have the 5th best defensive efficiency in the nation allowing just .88-points per possession. In comparison the Ducks rank 52nd in DEFF. Offensively these two teams are relatively even when if comes to efficiency ratings as the Ducks check in 10th, but USC is 15th. So, while the offenses are similar, the defenses are not with USC holding a sizable advantage. USC has covered 5 of the last six meetings and the favorite has covered 9 of the last eleven. We like USC and the short number here. |
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03-23-21 | Pepperdine -6 v. Bellarmine | Top | 82-71 | Win | 100 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Pepperdine -6 over Bellarmine, Tuesday 8:30 PM ET - Strength of schedule and the level of competition clearly favors the Waves of Pepperdine here as they’ve played the 83rd toughest schedule this season compared to Bellarmines’ 285th. Not only have the Knight’s played a weak schedule but against that weaker competition they still rank 295th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.081-points per possession. Bellarmine has the 333rd ranked defensive EFG% against at 55.1%. They are also the 336th worst team in the nation in defending 3-pt shooting. That doesn’t bode well against a Pepperdine team was 89th in offensive efficiency this season and 135th in EFG% offensive at 50.6%. The Wave can also defend with the 132nd rated defensive efficiency unit allowing 1.003PPP. That’s even more impressive considering the Wave play in the West Coast Conference which ranks 7th in EFG% offense and features 5 teams that rank in the top 101 in offensive efficiency. Pepperdine has some quality wins and close losses on their resume and are the superior team. Bellarmine has one win over a team ranked higher than 200th and that was Army (196th) last time out. Lay the points with Pepperdine. |
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03-22-21 | Abilene Christian v. UCLA -4.5 | Top | 47-67 | Win | 100 | 23 h 34 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UCLA -4.5 over Abilene Christian, Monday 5:15 PM ET - This line is slightly higher than we anticipated but it’s warranted based on how well the Bruins are currently playing. UCLA is one of those uber talented team that didn’t play up to their potential at times this season with nine losses. But when the Bruins have been right, they’ve been very good and the first two games in the tourney showed just how well this team can play. UCLA is 12th in offensive efficiency at 1.155-points per possession and 82nd in defensive efficiency allowing just .972PPP. What makes those numbers even more impressive is that it comes against the 34th toughest schedule in the nation. AS we’ve seen in the first two games of the Tourney the Bruins can go inside, make shots on the perimeter and are physical on the defensive end of the floor. Abilene Christian has some impressive statistics overall and play high pressure defense and lead the nation in forced turnovers. The Wildcats were 24th in DEFF allowing .913PPP but were 165th in OEFF. The problem with their overall numbers though is they’ve played the 315th WORST schedule in college basketball. In fact, the Wildcats DEFF numbers are VERY misleading as they’ve faced 12 teams that rank 270th or worse in offensive efficiency. Again, the Bruins rank 12th in that category. Abilene Christian is coming off maybe their biggest win in school history over Big Brother Texas and will let down here against a Bruins team capable of beating most teams in the tourney the way they are playing right now. |
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03-21-21 | Oregon State +6.5 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 80-70 | Win | 100 | 23 h 29 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Oregon State +6.5 over Oklahoma State, 9:40 PM ET - We’ve been high on the Big 12 Conference all season long, but the Pac 12 Conference has played well in the Tourney with UCLA beatings Michigan State in the play in game, Oregon State, Colorado, USC, Colorado and Oregon all advancing. Oregon State was a surprise upset of Tennessee in the opening round, but they made us a believer and we also feel the Cowboys are a bit over-rated. Oregon State has won 4 straight against solid competition with wins over UCLA, Oregon, Colorado and Tennessee. The Beavers are 7-1 SU their last eight games. We have contrasting styles of play here as the Beavers (314th in pace) want to play slow while the Cowboys (33rd) want to play fast. Oklahoma State wasn’t as impressive in their opening round 69-60 win over Liberty and Cade Cunningham struggled shooting by going 3 of 14 from the field. Oklahoma State holds an advantage in defensive efficiency rating at 17th compared to Oregon State at 93rd but the Beavers have a slight advantage in offensive efficiency. It is going to be extremely hard for Oklahoma State to cover this number when they rank 325th in turnovers per game compared to Oregon State who ranks 54th. The Beavers are a perfect 4-0 ATS as an underdog on a neutral court while Oklahoma State is just 1-5 ATS their last six tourney games as a chalk. Grab the points in what should be a close game. |
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03-19-21 | Oral Roberts +16.5 v. Ohio State | Top | 75-72 | Win | 100 | 31 h 14 m | Show |
#739 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oral Roberts +16.5 over Ohio State, Friday at 3 PM ET - We love to look long and hard at big underdogs that can score points. That’s what we have here. ORU averages 82 PPG and ranks 13th nationally in scoring. They shoot it very well especially from deep where the average nearly 40% from beyond the arc (11th nationally). They can also steal some points on the FT line when they do get there as they hit nearly 83% from the stripe as a team (1st nationally). We think OSU will have a tough time pulling away in this game. The Buckeyes are coming off a rough and emotional Big Ten tourney run playing 4 games in 4 days and losing to Illinois in OT in the finals. Now they get an early game on Friday while Oral Roberts has had 10 days off to rest, practice, and get ready for their opener. The Golden Eagles have lost by more than this spread just once all season long and that was in the season opener @ Missouri way back in November. They were competitive in their games vs high D1 teams this year losing by 5 @ Oklahoma State, by 5 @ Wichita State, by 11 @ Arkansas, and by 14 @ Oklahoma, all NCAA tourney teams. If OSU has a weakness, it’s definitely their defense as they ranked dead last this year in the Big 10 in defensive efficiency (all games). They are also average at best at defending the arc so we don’t see them slowing down Oral Roberts in this game. The Buckeyes will put up points for sure, but the Eagles, even if they get down by more than the spread, will have the ability to score late if needed to get back in the game. The Buckeyes simply want to win and advance and get some rest for their starters if they are up double digits late in the game. Oral Roberts scores 70+ in this one and covers the big number. |
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03-18-21 | Norfolk State +3 v. Appalachian State | Top | 54-53 | Win | 100 | 39 h 47 m | Show |
#711 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Norfolk State +3 over Appalachian State, Thursday at 8:40 PM ET - App State made a great run through their conference tourney catching lightning in a bottle as some teams do this time of year. They played 4 games in 4 days in the Sun Belt tourney to win the title but let’s not forget this team was ranked as the 5th best team in the Sun Belt entering that tournament and actually had a losing record during the regular season. They also lost 3 times this season to Troy who is ranked 305th nationally and is the worst team in the Sun Belt so App State has been far from reliable. They’ve had some rest now but this is a very thin team which can cause problems in a tournament setting. Their starters played 733 out of the 850 possible minutes in those 4 tourney games that were all very tight. Norfolk steps in from the MEAC, which isn’t a strong league, but they were the best team in their conference all season. The Spartans have had off since Saturday so they’ll be rested as well. They are also deep (15th nationally in bench minutes) and experienced with 4 seniors and 1 junior in the starting line up and multiple upperclassmen coming off the bench. Their head coach Jones has been at Norfolk for 8 years and had only one losing season (solid program). No post-season last year for anyone but in 2019 the Spartans made the NIT and beat Alabama before losing to Colorado. They are a good sized team, solid rebounding, one of the better 3-point shooting teams in the nation (39th) and they don’t turn the ball over very much. This one has upset written all over, although we wouldn’t call it that as we have this game rated as dead-even. We’ll take the points with Norfolk State. |
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03-13-21 | North Texas v. Western Kentucky +1.5 | Top | 61-57 | Loss | -107 | 21 h 39 m | Show |
#628 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Western Kentucky +1.5 over North Texas, Saturday at 9 PM ET - These 2 were supposed to face off twice this year but both games were canceled. Their most recent meeting was last March and while that was a year ago, the result should bring some extra motivation to a very talented WKY team. It was a game at North Texas as the 2 were battling for the CUSA title. Western KY led by 6 late and UNT rallied to send the game to OT where they won and clinched the conference regular season title. Now the Hilltoppers have a chance to exact revenge and win the CUSA tourney title on Saturday night. WKY is playing their best basketball of the season right now. They’ve won 11 of their last 13 games with their only losses coming @ Houston (6th ranked in the nation on KenPom) and a 2-point loss vs Old Dominion, a game WKY led by 13 in the 2nd half. They are 5-4 this season vs Q1 & Q2 teams, the top competition they’ve faced this year. That includes a win @ Alabama and a near upset of West Virginia. This team is ultra talented led by future NBA big man Charles Bassey (21 PPG & 8 RPG). UNT is at a bit of a disadvantage here. They will be playing their 4th game in 4 days. WKY is playing their 3rd game. The Mean Green were not playing their best basketball heading into this tournament losing their final 3 regular season games. While the Hilltoppers had a winning record vs the best teams they played (Q1 & Q2) North Texas was 3-6 vs those opponents. Many of their offensive and defensive numbers are very similar in conference play but WKY should have a solid advantage in 2 areas. They are the better rebounding team (and fresher having played one less game) and they should get to the line more often here as they are #1 in CUSA in that category and UNT fouls a lot. If the Hilltoppers do get to the line a lot as we suspect, they should salt this one away as they rank 12th nationally making nearly 80% of their FT’s. Prior to their OT loss last March vs North Texas, the Hilltoppers controlled this series winning 11 straight. Western gets the win and cover and moves on to the Big Dance. |
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03-12-21 | Connecticut +1 v. Creighton | Top | 56-59 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
#849 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Connecticut +1 over Creighton, Friday at 9 PM ET - We’ve said this before leading up to the conference tournaments, we have UConn ranked as the top team in the Big East. They should be favored in this game according to our power ratings. Their top player, and best player in the Big East, James Bouknight missed 8 games in the middle of the season and the Huskies were 4-4 during his absence. With him in the line up they are 11-2 with their only losses coming by 8 @ Villanova and by 2 points in OT vs this Creighton team. They shot just 36% and made only 26% of their 3’s and still took the Blue Jays to OT. We like them to get their revenge today. The Huskies are playing lights out right now winning 6 of 7 since Bouknight rejoined the lineup. All 6 of those wins were by double digits including a 34 point win yesterday vs DePaul. Creighton is also coming off a big win over Butler yesterday and also beat the Bulldogs to close out the regular season. Prior to that game they had lost back to back games vs Villanova & Xavier. The Jays are a very good shooting team but UConn is the #1 defense in the Big East (efficiency & eFG%) and held Creighton to 42% shooting in their 2 games this season. While Creighton won both, one was without Bouknight, and they way UConn’s offense is playing right now is far better than they were playing at the time these teams met. The Huskies covered both of those games and they are a remarkable 16-4-1 ATS on the season. Definitely an undervalued commodity and we like Connecticut to win this game outright. |
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03-09-21 | Southern Miss v. Rice -4.5 | Top | 52-61 | Win | 100 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
#826 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Rice -4.5 over Southern Miss, Tuesday at 8 PM ET - Rice had the #1 strength of schedule rating in Conference USA play, played one less game, and still finished with 2 more wins than Southern Miss. The Owls were 6-10 overall in league play (13-12 overall on the season) and in their final 10 conference games, they played 8 of those games vs CUSA’s top tier teams (Western KY, UAB, Louisiana Tech, and North Texas). So they had a very difficult schedule from mid January on to get them ready for this tourney. The 2 games during that stretch that were not vs the top teams in the league were vs this Southern Miss team. Rice beat USM in both games by 26 & 8 points and the Owls dominated trailing for a grand total of 50 seconds in the 2 games combined! Rice controlled the boards with a +19 rebounding edge in the 2 games combined and they made 14 more 3-pointers. We don’t see that changing this time around as the Owls are 2nd best 3-point shooting team in CUSA and USM scores fewer points from beyond the arc than any team in the league. On top of all that, Rice played that series without one of their top players, Chris Mullins, who averages 11 PPG, 4 RPG, and 3 APG. He’s since come back and is at full strength. Southern Miss has only 8 wins on the season and they are just 4-13 in CUSA play. Seven of their eight wins have come vs teams ranked 295th or lower. The Golden Eagles struggle to score as they have reached 70 points just twice in their last 12 games while ranking 303rd nationally in offensive efficiency. Since Southern Miss head coach Ladner took over at the beginning of last season, they have a 9-26 record in CUSA play. Rice gets the win & cover on Tuesday night. |
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03-08-21 | North Dakota State -3 v. South Dakota | Top | 79-75 | Win | 100 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
#789 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* North Dakota State -3 over South Dakota, Monday at 9:45 PM ET - This line opened at NDSU -1.5 and was way off according to our power ratings. Not surprisingly, minutes after it opened it moved up to -3 and we still like the value on the Bison. We have this set at -5 in favor of North Dakota State. These 2 must met to close out the regular season and split their games, both @ South Dakota. We were on South Dakota in the first game it what we thought was a great spot to grab them at home. They rewarded us with an 80-71 win, however they lost their 1st team All Conference performer, AJ Plitzuweit, toward the end of that game to a season ending knee injury. Plitzuweit averaged 19 PPG, 5 RPG, and shot 43% from beyond the arc. Huge loss to say the least. The following day South Dakota again played host to NDSU and lost by 12. The Bison were favored by 2.5 in that game on the road and now only 3 on a neutral. You can see why we like the value here. North Dakota State played what looked like a close game yesterday beating UMKC by 4. However, they led by 16 at half and by 22 in the 2nd half so the game was never really in doubt. South Dakota beat a bad Western Illinois team in their Summit League tourney opener but an already thin team before losing Plitzuweit, their starters all logged 30+ minutes and not one reserve played more than 9 minutes. One thing we took away from the 2 games these 2 played at the end of the season was the Jackrabbits can’t hang on the boards. The Bison were +21 rebounds in their 2 meetings combined which isn’t surprising as they are the #1 offensive & defensive rebounding team in the Summit. They are also the best defensive team ranking #1 in eFG% allowed and 3-point percentage allowed. That will be a problem for South Dakota who relies heavily on the 3 and just lost their best shooter. The way the first game played out, the Bison were down late and committed a bunch of fouls to send SD to the line in an attempt to come back. South Dakota, a very good FT shooting team, was +18 made FT’s in that game. In the rematch when the points from the stripe evened out, NDSU won by double digits. The Bison foul fewer than any team in the league so that is not what normally happens in their games. We expect the Bison to be ahead for most of this game an if they need to salt this game away with FT’s late, they make 76% from the line. We’ll lay the small number here and take North Dakota State. |
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03-07-21 | Appalachian State v. Coastal Carolina -4 | Top | 64-61 | Loss | -112 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Coastal Carolina -4 over Appalachian State, 9PM ET - App State will have to deal with fatigue here as they are playing their 3rd game in three days AND are coming off an OT game yesterday. In yesterday’s win over Texas State, App State had four starters log over 38-minutes and have five players that saw 32 or more minutes of action. Coastal on the other hand is off a blowout win over Troy yesterday and were able to spread the minutes out through eleven players. Coastal Carolina has the best player on the floor in this game with DeVante Jones who is averaging 20.2PPG, 7.2 RPG and 3.2APG. These two teams are near even in offensive efficiency ratings with Coastal averaging 1.024-points per possession, while Appalachian State averages 1.037PPP. The big separator here is defense. Coastal is the 2nd best defense in the Sun Belt allowing just .946PPP compared to App State who ranks 10th allowing 1.026PPP. The Chanticleers have the 29th best EFG% defense in the nation, limiting opponents to just 46.2%. They also rank top 55 overall in both 2pt percentage and 3pt percentage defense. The Mountaineers on the other hand are 217th in EFG% defense and rank 179th or worse in both 2pt and 3pt percentage defense. Off their big upset win yesterday we expect App State to regress here and predict a double-digit win by Coastal Carolina |
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03-07-21 | Memphis v. Houston -9.5 | Top | 64-67 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 46 m | Show |
#732 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Houston -9.5 over Memphis, Sunday at 12:00 PM ET - This is a battle for 2nd place in the AAC as Wichita State already clinched the regular season title with a win over South Florida on Saturday. Houston has the most wins in the league at 13 but Wichita only played 13 games and went 11-2 so they are locked into the top seed. This is a battle for 2nd place. Despite battling for 2nd place, Houston is by far the best team in this conference. Most metrics have them ranked in the top 10 in the nation while Wichita is a bubble team at best. Memphis isn’t even really a serious bubble team right now. Most have them sitting as 10-15 spots outside the final bid. The Tigers have played just 3 games since an 18 day Covid break which started early in February. While they are 3-0 in those games, 2 of the wins came vs South Florida & Tulane, two of the three lowest rated teams in the AAC. Their lone decent win since they came back was a 6-point win over Cincinnati but the Bearcats played that game without one of the top players (DeJulius) and one of the top reserves (Harvey). The Tigers are great defensively. The problem here is, Houston is every bit as good defensively and MUCH better on offense. The Cougars are 1 of only 4 teams in the nation that rank in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency per Ken Pom. The others are Gonzaga, Michigan, and Illinois. Houston is absolutely dominant at home. This will be their 4th straight home game and their home finale and they’ve won their previous 3 by a combined 108 points! That includes a 38 point win over Cincinnati (and the Bearcats were healthy) and a 24 point win over Western Kentucky who is one of the top teams on Conference USA. The Cougs are 14-0 at home (6-1 ATS in AAC play at home) with an average final score of 82-54. They’ve only had one win all season long by less than 10 points and that was a 7-point win over Wichita in a game Houston led by 14 with 5 minutes remaining. The Cougars will be very motivated in their final home game and out to prove they are the best team in the league and deserved the #1 seed. Houston wins and covers again at home. |
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03-06-21 | Xavier v. Marquette -1.5 | Top | 59-66 | Win | 100 | 15 h 42 m | Show |
#670 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Marquette -1.5 over Xavier, Saturday at 9 PM ET - Marquette had a poor stretch from late January into February but they pulled out of their funk and their playing perhaps their best basketball of the season to close it out. The Golden Eagles were dealt an extremely tough scheduling situation to close out the year as they are coming off SIX straight road games. This is their home finale and their first game at home in a full month. They went 3-3 over that 6 game road stretch including wins over North Carolina (by double digits) and over Butler who has been playing great at home including wins over Villanova & Creighton, the 2 top teams in the league. They’ve now won 3 of their last 4 (all on the road as we mentioned) and now have big time momentum coming home. Xavier is heading in the opposite direction losing 4 of their 6 games since coming back from a 2 week Covid break which started in early February. They are just 1-4 SU this season on the road in conference play. XU has shot just 42% since their return from their hiatus and they’ve failed to top 68 points in 3 of their last 4 games. They are the worst 3-point shooting team in the Big East hitting only 29% on the season which makes it tough to win on the road. The Musketeers beat Marquette at home by 3 on a 3-pointer at the buzzer earlier this season. Just a little more fuel for the Golden Eagles. The favorite has covered 6 of the last 7 in this series and we love the momentum Marquette brings into this one as they finally get to play a home game. |
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03-05-21 | Valparaiso +7.5 v. Missouri State | Top | 55-66 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 5 m | Show |
#873 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Valparaiso +7.5 over Missouri State, Friday at 9 PM ET - Valpo is playing their best basketball over the last month or so. They are 7-11 on the season in MVC play but 7-8 SU their last 15. Four of those eight wins have been tight games with Valpo losing by 7 or less. We’re getting some value her because the Crusaders lost both games vs Mizzou State by 13 & 10 points way back in early January with Valparaiso wasn’t playing well. They were 3.5 point underdogs in those game and now getting 8 = value in our opinion. Down the stretch this team beat Drake (2nd rated team in the MVC), lost by 2 vs Loyola Chicago (top game in the conference) and beat Indiana State (4th ranked team in the league). The Crusaders are now 5-1 ATS their last 6 games vs teams with above .500 SU records. Missouri State has won 7 of their last 8 games but they played the worst teams in the Missouri Valley down the stretch. Valpo has had a number if players in the rotation miss games this season but they are at full strength now and they are better than their 7-11 conference record. Defensively they’ve been solid over the last month allowing only 2 of their last 9 opponents to get to 70 points. The Crusaders were 4-1 ATS this year as dogs of 7 or more in conference play and we like this one to go to the wire. Take Valparaiso and the points. |
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03-04-21 | Oklahoma State +11.5 v. Baylor | Top | 70-81 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
#727 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oklahoma State +11.5 over Baylor, Thursday at 7 PM ET - This is a really tough spot for a Baylor team that frankly isn’t playing to the dominant level they were earlier in the season. The Bears just beat West Virginia in OT on Tuesday night to clinch their first regular season Big 12 Title in 71 years! Now with their Big 12 tournament seeding set at #1, they have to play 48 hours later vs an Oklahoma State team that is playing their best basketball of the season. Baylor has played 3 games since returning from a 21 day covid break and as we mentioned, they haven’t been all that great. They rallied from 17 down to beat a bad Iowa State team (0-16 in the conference) by 5, lost by 13 @ Kansas, and then beat WVU in OT on Tuesday. They’ve hit only 43% of their shots over that 3 game stretch and they’ve been out rebounded in 2 of those games. Far from dominating. Okie State has won 8 of their last 10 including a sweep of a very good Oklahoma team their last 2 games. They’ve been impressive on the road with a 7-3 record including wins @ Oklahoma, @ Texas Tech, and @ Marquette. The Cowboys 3 road losses in Big 12 play have come by an average of 6 PPG. These two met in January when Baylor was destroying pretty much everyone and the Bears topped OSU by 15. The Cowboys played that game without their star freshman Cade Cunningham (20 PPG & 6 RPG) who might just be the #1 pick in this year’s NBA Draft. They were also without starter Rondel Walker who averages 9 PPG & 3 RPG. Prior to OSU losing earlier this year and obviously not at 100%, this was a tight series with the 4 match ups the last 2 seasons decided by 3, 4, 7, and 8 points. If this was Baylor’s final home game and Senior night, we might be reluctant to fade them even though this is a bad scheduling situation. However, they host Texas Tech this weekend for their home finale. We think OSU can give Baylor a big time scare here and taking the generous points is the play. |
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03-03-21 | Creighton v. Villanova -4 | Top | 60-72 | Win | 100 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
#686 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Villanova -4 over Creighton, Wednesday at 8 PM ET - This is a huge home game for Nova as a win pretty much clinches the Big East regular season title. It’s also their final home game so they are set to send off 2 of the better players in program history with a win. Starting PG Gillespie (1200 career points) and starting F Samuels are both seniors potentially playing their final game at home. Speaking of home, the Cats have been great in their own arena this year with a perfect 8-0 record and an average margin of victory of +16. Going back even further, Nova has won 63 of their last 70 home games and they have won 6 of their last 7 @ home vs the Jays. However, they did lose last year at home vs Creighton so they should have a little extra for this one. On top of that, the Wildcats traveled to Creighton on Feb 13th as a 2-point favorite and lost 86-70. The Blue Jays shot nearly 60% in that game and averaged a ridiculous 1.34 PPP. It was a terrible defensive performance and the Cats bounced back a few days later to beat a very good UConn team here at home. Speaking of bouncing back, Villanova had 3 losses on the season entering last weekend and they rebounded to win their following game after each of those. They laid an egg on Sunday @ Butler losing by 12 for their 4th loss of the season and we expect a huge effort in this one. They shot just 2 of 27 from three point range in that loss (7%) one of their worst performances in the Jay Wright era. Now they are back at home where they make 40% of their 3’s and average 81 PPG. Villanova was favored by 2 @ Creighton and now they are laying just 4 at home, off a loss, on Senior night. Like this spot for the Wildcats. |
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03-02-21 | Wisconsin v. Purdue -1.5 | Top | 69-73 | Win | 100 | 15 h 3 m | Show |
#644 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Purdue -1.5 over Wisconsin, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - The Badgers are not living up to expectations this year and they are flat out playing poorly right now. They are just 5-6 SU their last 11 games and their wins during that stretch have come against Nebraska, Northwestern (twice), Maryland, and Penn State. Against the top 6 teams in the Big 10 they are 0-6 SU this season. They haven’t faced Purdue yet, but the Boilers fall into the top 6 category ranking 6th in the league. Offensively UW has been really struggling as they have not gotten to 70 points in a full month. During that stretch they are shooting just 35% as a team. On the road this season the Badgers are hitting just 39% of their shots overall and only 30% from beyond the arc. Purdue has been very tough at home with a 9-1 record and their only loss coming to Michigan, the top team in the conference. How has Wisconsin done when traveling to Purdue? Terrible to put it lightly. The Badgers are 4-41 SU all time at Mackey Arena and their last with there came in 2014, the year Wisconsin went to the Final 4. While the Badgers are struggling, Purdue is playing much better having won 9 of their last 12 games. On offense they have had problems making 3-pointers, however the Boilers are much better at home in this area hitting 35% from deep and the Wisconsin defense has allowed their last 4 opponents to combine to shoot 46% from beyond the arc. Last year Purdue was favored by 4 in this match up at home and won 70-51. Now we’re getting them at a lower number vs a Wisconsin team that is headed in the wrong direction. Purdue wins and covers this one. |
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03-01-21 | Rutgers -7 v. Nebraska | Top | 51-72 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
#841 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Rutgers -7 over Nebraska, Monday at 7 PM ET - This is a huge game for the NCAA bubble team Rutgers. They are 9-9 in Big 10 play and cannot afford a loss at last place Nebraska. The Scarlet Knights are in a much better situation for this match up as they have had off since their win over Indiana last Wednesday. Nebraska, on the other hand, continues their brutal scheduling with their 5th game in 10 days. Since returning from their Covid break in early February, this will be the Huskers 12th game in 24 days. Nebraska has just 2 wins in their last 16 games including a win over Minnesota on Saturday here at home. That was a 4 point win over a Gopher team that is trending downward losing 8 of their last 10 games and they played on Saturday without starting guard Kalscheur and starting center Robbins who were out with injury. The Huskers shot WAY above their season averages hitting 55% for the game (they average 41% on the season) and 53% from 3-point range (they average 33% for the season) and were still leading by only 1 point with under 20 seconds remaining the game. This is a bad match up for Nebraska. They struggle big time on offense ranking 14th (dead last) in the Big 10 in offensive efficiency. Rutgers defense has been exceptional all season ranking 14th nationally in defensive efficiency. The Knights defense also creates a lot of turnovers ranking 2nd in the conference while Rutgers has been careless with the ball all season long coughing it up almost 20% of the time which is last in the Big 10. Lastly, the Nebraska defense excels at guarding the arc and that’s about it. However, Rutgers relies very little on the 3 point shot with only 28% of their points coming from deep. When these 2 met in Lincoln last year, Rutgers was favored by 5 points and won by 17. We see another double digit win for the Scarlet Knights so we’re laying the points. |
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02-28-21 | Nevada +8 v. Utah State | Top | 66-87 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
#815 ASA TOP PLAY ON Nevada +8 over Utah State, Sunday at 7 PM ET - These 2 played on Friday night here in Logan, Utah and the Aggies came away with a 75-72 win. It was a bad spot for Nevada as they were coming off a 19 day Covid layoff and we expected them to be rusty. They were as USU built a 16-point halftime lead and the Wolfpack made only 8 field goals in the first 20 minutes. They fell down by as many as 21 points but we were impressed with Nevada’s resolve. They battled back and nearly pulled off the win. Head coach Steve Alford admitted his team looked rusty for the first 25 minutes of the game but looked much more like themselves in the final 15 minutes. That’s a big positive heading into this game. Before their long layoff this Nevada team was very good. They won 6 of their 8 games before their hiatus including topping Boise State twice and the Broncos were in 1st place heading into this weekend before dropping 2 very tight games vs San Diego State, the highest rated team in the MWC. They are 9-6 in league play and all 6 of their losses have come by margins of 2, 2, 3, 5, 5, and 7 points. Utah State has faced the top 5 teams in the league a combined 7 times. They are 4-3 SU & 3-4 ATS in those games and they are just 4-5 SU & 3-6 ATS vs top 100 teams (Nevada falls into that category). Their starting PG Worster (10 PPG & 4 APG) has now missed 3 straight games and he is questionable at best again on Sunday. On Friday Nevada shot just 34% from inside the arc and attempted only 14 FT’s. On the season in MWC play they average 52% inside the arc and they get to the FT line more than any other team with 22% of their points coming from the line (they make 77% of those FT’s). Even with that (they were also -7 made FTs) they came back and took this Utah State team to the wire. With their momentum in the final 15 minutes on Friday, we think the Wolfpack will play much better on Sunday. They have covered 16 of their 21 games this year and we expect another tight one here. Take the points. |
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02-27-21 | North Dakota State v. South Dakota -1 | Top | 71-80 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
#682 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* South Dakota -1 over North Dakota State, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET - This is just the 2nd home game this month for South Dakota. That was their most recent game and a win one week ago vs Nebraska Omaha and prior to that the Coyotes had lost 3 of 4 but those games were all on the road (4 straight road games). At home this year they are perfect in Summit League play and their only home loss this season was vs Drake, who is a top 25 type team when fully healthy. Their last home loss in conference play was last season vs this North Dakota State team (lost by 3) so some extra motivation for the Coyotes here. In fact, they have won 15 of their last 16 conference home games with that only loss coming vs NDSU. The Bison sit a half game behind South Dakota in 2nd place in the Summit but their road resume has been shaky at best. They are 3-6 SU on the road this year and their conference games on the road (6 of them) have been vs UMKC twice (ranked 215th and split the 2 games), North Dakota twice (ranked 299th and split the 2 games), and Western Illinois (ranked 305th). They have not played any of the top teams in the league on the road this season. On top of that, the Bison haven’t played a road game in a full month! Every game they’ve played in February has been at home. South Dakota averages 84 PPG, 54% shooting, and 45% from 3-point range at home. They also make 81% of their FT’s in conference play which is best in the league. They are tough to stop here at the Sanford Sports Complex. North Dakota State struggles on offense at times and they are averaging only 66 PPG on the road this season. We think they’ll have a hard time scoring enough to stay in this one. With the line set where it is, we basically just need South Dakota to win this game at home. We’ll take our chances with that. |
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02-26-21 | Nevada v. Utah State -7.5 | Top | 72-75 | Loss | -108 | 14 h 4 m | Show |
#880 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Utah State -7.5 over Nevada, Friday at 9 PM ET - Utah State finally gets to play at home. They have played 5 straight road games with their most recent home game coming back on January 21st. They’ve had a huge home court advantage over the years winning 37 of their last 41 games in Logan and they are one of the few teams in the MWC that is allowing fans so that helps as well. The Aggies had a 13 day break from Feb 4 thru Feb 17 so they were a bit rusty last week in their back to back games @ Boise State, the 1st place team in the conference. Even with that, this Aggie team played quite well taking the Broncos to the wire in each losing by 9 (it was a 1-point game with 4:30 remaining) and losing by 4. USU led both games at halftime but shot just 7 of 30 from 3-point range in the 2 games combined and they were -16 made FT’s. Despite that, they nearly pulled off wins vs 14-3 (in MWC play) Boise State. Now back at home in must win mode we expect them to play very well. They are catching Nevada in a bad spot. The Wolfpack are just back from a Covid hiatus and haven’t played in 20 days. They have a solid 9-5 MWC record but they are 0-4 SU on the road in conference play. That’s right, only 4 of their 14 conference games have been true road games. We expect Nevada to struggle on offense after their long layoff and it doesn’t help they are playing the top defense in the Mountain West. Utah State ranks #1 in defensive efficiency, 3-point % defense, 2-point % defense, and blocked shots. It’ll be tough for a Nevada team that shoots just 42% on the road (31% from 3) to get any offensive rhythm in this game. USU has already proven they can beat the best in the league here at home as they swept the top rated team San Diego State. The host has covered 8 of the last 9 in this series and we like Utah State to win this by double digits. |
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02-24-21 | Seton Hall -7.5 v. Butler | Top | 52-61 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
#683 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Seton Hall -7.5 over Butler, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - We’re getting one of the top teams in the Big East here coming off a loss. Seton Hall lost at Georgetown 81-75 on Saturday. The Hoyas host lights out hitting 50% of their shot overall and 62% of their 3-pointers. Even with that fantastic offensive effort by Georgetown, the Pirates were in the game all the way and lost by just 6. Prior to that loss Seton Hall had won 6 of their previous 8 road games with their lone road losses during this stretch coming by 2 points @ Villanova , the top team in the Big East, and @ Creighton, the 2nd rated team in the conference. Butler, since coming back from their month long Covid break, is just 1-3 with their only win coming by 2 points in OT. The Bulldogs are just 3-3 their last 6 home games with 2 of those wins coming in OT. Butler has played 10 home games this year and they’ve actually been outscored in those games. Butler just lost by double digits vs Xavier and the Bulldogs were without 3 of their top players in that game. The 3 players that were out vs Xavier (Nze, Thompson, and Hodges) combine to average 30 PPG and 17 RPG on the season. They are all questionable again for this game. Butler’s offense already struggles with those guys at full strength as they rank 10th in the Big East in offensive efficiency and 10th in eFG%. They have averaged just 57 PPG over their last 3 games and if those guys are out or not at 100%, this team is in trouble on offense. Seton Hall has a big edge on offense (ranks 23rd nationally in offensive efficiency) and if this one comes down to FT’s, the Pirates hit 77% of their freebies in Big East play while Butler makes only 63% from the line. The road team has covered 5 straight in this series and we like Seton Hall to roll in this game. |
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02-23-21 | Connecticut -4 v. Georgetown | Top | 70-57 | Win | 100 | 15 h 52 m | Show |
#635 ASA CBB TOP PLAY ON 10* Connecticut -4 over Georgetown, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - We like the value we’re getting with UConn in this game. The Huskies are just 7-6 in Big East play but they are much better than their record. That’s because their top player, James Bouknight, one of the top NBA prospects in the Big East, is now back in the lineup after missing 8 games. He’s been back for 2 games, played 60 minutes, scored 40 points, and 14 rebounds. With Bouknight in the lineup, the Huskies have a 6-2 record with their only losses to Creighton in OT and Villanova by 8 on Saturday. With him out of the lineup, UConn has a record of 4-4. We’re getting the Huskies off a tough loss @ Villanova on Saturday in a game where they made only 36% of their shots, 26% of their 3-pointers, and were -6 made FT’s and still only lost by 8 on the road vs the top team in the conference. We expect a strong performance off that loss. Georgetown is on the opposite end of the spectrum coming into this game. They are off a huge 81-75 home win over Seton Hall as a 4.5 point underdog. The Hoyas shot the lights out in that win hitting 50% of their shots overall and a ridiculous 62% of their 3-pointers and the game was still nip and tuck the entire 2nd half. We have a feeling the won’t shoot like that in this game vs a UConn team that ranks #1 in the Big East in defensive efficiency. Plus this game is being played at Capital One Arena in Washington DC, home of the Wizards, and this will be G’Towns first game here this season so home court advantage, if there was any, is out the window. At home this season the Hoyas were +4.5 vs Seton Hall over the weekend, +4.5 vs Marquette, +4.5 vs Providence, and +7.5 vs Creighton. Based on those numbers, we’re getting value with UConn who we have rated as the 3rd best team in the Big East when fully healthy. We like UConn to win and cover here. |
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02-22-21 | Oregon v. USC -3.5 | Top | 58-72 | Win | 100 | 14 h 2 m | Show |
#870 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* USC -3.5 over Oregon, Monday at 9 PM ET - We like the line value AND the situation for USC here. They were just favored by 6 at home vs Arizona, a team we have power rated almost dead even with Oregon, but now they are laying just 3.5. The Trojans are coming off a home loss, just their 4th loss of the season (now 18-4 record, vs the Wildcats. It wasn’t a huge surprise as Arizona was coming off back to back losses and it was a huge game for the talented Wildcats. USC shot just 42% in the game (they average 47% at home) and averaged just 1.03 PPP and their season average is 1.14 PPG so it was an underwhelming performance from the Trojans. At home USC has won 28 of their last 32 games and their average home margin of victory is +13 this season. The Trojans were on a huge roll winning 13 of their previous 14 coming into Saturday’s game vs Arizona. Oregon is coming of back to back huge home wins over Colorado & Utah. Both games went to the wire with the Ducks winning by 4 & 3 points. Now this is a tough spot for the Ducks as they are playing their 5th game in 12 days. USC has been a great bounce back team covering 9 of their last 11 games following an outright loss. Their 6 home wins in Pac 12 play have come by margins of 17, 18, 13, 8, 26, and 18 points. The Ducks have 4 conference road wins, but three of those have coming vs Utah, Arizona State, and Washington, all who have losing records in the Pac 12 (and losing overall records). The Trojans have the BEST defense in the Pac 12 in terms of defensive efficiency and eFG% allowed. Over the weekend they allowed Arizona to hit 1.16 PPP which was their worst defensive effort by far this season in Pac 12 play. Expect USC to play very well on defense tonight vs Oregon and we like the Trojans to pick up the win and cover. |
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02-21-21 | Michigan v. Ohio State +2 | Top | 92-87 | Loss | -112 | 7 h 41 m | Show |
#798 ASA PLAY ON Ohio State +2 over Michigan, Sunday at 1 PM ET - We had this one power rated to OSU -3 so we feel there is some value with the Buckeyes. Michigan is 10-1 in the Big 10 and on top of the conference but they are still getting back into a groove after a long 3 week layoff. Since they’ve come back they’ve only played 2 games beating Wisconsin on the road and Rutgers at home. Their win @ Wisconsin may look like a big win but the Badgers have really been struggling over the last few weeks and UW actually led for much of that game including by 14 at half. The Wolverines other game was a 7 point home win over Rutgers. Their offense wasn’t great in either game as they combined to make only 43% of their shots in their first 2 games back from the Covid break, well below their season average of 49%. In their first 2 games they’ve underperformed both offensively and defensively on a points per possession basis when comparing to their overall conference stats on the season. The Wolverines road schedule to date has been one of the easiest in the Big 10 as they have not faced any of the top 4 rated teams in the conference on the road yet this season. Until Sunday. Ohio State is playing as well as any team in the country right now. They have won 7 straight and 10 of their last 11 with their only loss during that stretch coming vs Purdue by just 2 points. That was a game the Buckeyes shot just 37%, played without their starting PG, and still led by 5 with under 2:00 remaining. OSU hasn’t had any long Covid interruptions and they are in a groove right now. They are 12-4 in the conference and 8 of those wins have come by double digits. If they want any shot at a Big 10 title, they have to win this home game vs first place Michigan. They are catching the Wolverines at a perfect time as they are still trying to get their legs back under them after their break. The host has covered 8 of the last 10 in this rivalry and where the line sits now at -1, all we need OSU to do is win this game. We think they will. |
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02-19-21 | Toledo v. Buffalo -2 | Top | 80-70 | Loss | -101 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Buffalo -2 over Toledo, 9 PM ET - Raise your hand if you also think it’s “fishy” that Buffalo is favored in this game against a Toledo team that is 12-3 in conference action? The Rockets have been favored in 11 straight games and 18 of twenty-three this season and are now a dog to 9-6 Buffalo? When we examine conference games only we find the Rockets have the best offensive efficiency numbers in the league at 1.187PPP but Buffalo has the best defensive efficiency allowing just .929PPP. The Bulls offense isn’t as good as the Rockets, but they are 4th in offensive efficiency and will have an advantage over Toledo’s 6th ranked DEFF unit. Most of the other key statistical advantages Toledo would normally have over other teams are nullified by Buffalo’s defensive statistics. The biggest advantage the Bulls have is that they are the best offensive rebound team in the MAC compared to a Toledo defense that is LAST in the league in defensive rebounding. Buffalo is 29-9 SU their last 38 at home with an average margin of victory of +13PPG. The Bulls are playing extremely confident right now and will be primed for a game against the top team in the MAC here. |
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02-17-21 | Wyoming -6 v. New Mexico | Top | 83-74 | Win | 100 | 13 h 60 m | Show |
#705 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Wyoming -6 over New Mexico, Wednesday at 7:00 PM ET - This was supposed to be a home game for the Lobos but because of the state of New Mexico’s Covid related restrictions, they are not able to play at home this season. Thus, they’ve been on the road for ALL of their 16 games this season. Their “home” games thus far have been played in Lubbock, TX, St George, UT, and now tonight’s game will be in Colorado Springs. Not surprisingly, the Lobos are 1-11 in conference play during their disrupted season. They have not played a game since January 30th and they had to completely cancel their series with San Diego State a few weeks ago because they had just 5 scholarship players available to play due to injuries and players recently opting out of the remainder of the season. Head coach Weir mentioned his team just started practicing again a few days ago and a number of walkons who were not traveling with the team earlier this year are now with the team and could be in the rotation. The Lobos hopped on a bus on Tuesday morning to make the long 6 hour trip to Air Force for their “home” game. We have a feeling this team has cashed it for the season in a situation that is as tough as any in the country. Offensively they have been terrible this season. They rank dead last in the MWC in efficiency, eFG%, 3-point FG%, 2-point FG% and FT%. Not a huge surprise with all of the adversity and distractions they’ve faced. Wyoming is just 4-8 in MWC play but they’ve played a very tough slate already facing San Diego State, Nevada, Colorado State, and Boise State (4 of the top 5 teams in the conference) all twice this season. While New Mexico has been terrible on offense, the Cowboys are averaging 75 PPG (Lobos average 63 PPG) and they rank in the top 90 nationally in both offensive efficiency and eFG%. Wyoming is coming in on a 4 game losing streak losing 2 vs San Diego State and Colorado State and now they take a HUGE step down in competition. While this is a “home” game for the Lobos, they have yet to play in Colorado Springs this season while Wyoming has played here twice already this year losing by 3 to Air Force and then following that up with a 19 point win the next night. We can’t imagine New Mexico even wants to be here with all that has gone on in their program and we look for Wyoming to roll in this game. |
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02-16-21 | Dayton v. Rhode Island -3 | Top | 89-91 | Loss | -112 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
#612 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Rhode Island -3 over Dayton, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Here we have a team that has a 9-12 overall record favored by a full 3 points over a team that has an 11-6 overall record. Hmmm… We like the home favorite here. Rhode Island is coming in off 4 straight losses and they are in desperate need of a win. It’s their home finale and we expect the Rams to play very well. The opener of that 4 games losing streak for URI was a 67-56 loss @ Dayton, tonight’s opponent. In that loss the Rams top player Fatts Russell (15 PPG) was battling an injury and played a season low 19 minutes and scored a season low 4 points. HE missed URI’s next game which was a 1-point home loss vs VCU, the A10’s 1st place team and 2nd highest rated team. The Rams also lost by 7 @ St Louis in their most recent game and were very competitive vs the top rated team in the conference. Russell was back in the line up and they are back at full strength. This team is better than their record. Prior to their 4 games losing streak this team was on a 6-3 run including a road win VCU and St Bonnies (3rd rated team in the A10). In their first meeting on January 30th, the Rams made just 38% of their shots and 23% of their 3’s with the best player banged up. The Flyers have played 5 road games this year and they are 2-3 in those contests with one win coming in OT and they other coming by 5 points vs a St Louis team that was playing their first game in over a month due to covid. After this one Dayton has three HUGE games on deck vs St Louis, St Bonnies and VCU, the 3 best teams in the conference. Having already beaten URI, we wouldn’t be surprised if they were peaking ahead at that stretch of games. Rhode Island is the better defensive team ranking 33rd nationally in efficiency and they send teams to the FT line fewer than any other team in the A10. Big home game for the Rams and we like them to get the win and cover. |
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02-13-21 | Weber State +1 v. Montana | Top | 91-82 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
#687 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Weber State +1 over Montana, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET - These two played on Thursday night and Weber State lost 80-67 as a 1-point favorite @ Montana. That loss broke a 4 game winning streak for Weber and they are ready to get back at it on Saturday. The Wildcats come into this game ranked #2 in the Big Sky Conference in offensive efficiency and #3 in defensive efficiency. You wouldn’t have noticed that on Thursday as they allowed Montana to shoot over 50% and 1.18 PPP well above their season averages of 45% and 0.98 PPP. On the other end of the court Weber’s offense (which averages 50% from the field on the season) shot just 44% (only 21% from 3-point range) and averaged just 0.99 PPP. So we have the better team (11-5 overall / 6-3 in conference) that played below their normal expectation with a chance at quick revenge vs a team that exceeded their expectation. We like this situation. Montana has been in this spot a lot recently and failed miserably. In each of their last 3 second night of back to backs vs the same opponent, they won the first night and lost the 2nd night. Those 3 losses came at the hands of Northern Arizona, Sacramento State, and Portland State, all 3 ranked well below this Weber State team. The Wildcats have been solid after a subpar performance covering their last 4 games following a loss. Montana, as we mentioned, is the opposite going 0-5 ATS the game following a SU win. We expect Weber State to win this one so we’ll lay it on the road. |
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02-12-21 | St Bonaventure v. VCU -3 | Top | 64-67 | Push | 0 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
#866 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* VCU -3 over St Bonaventure, Friday at 7:00 PM ET - These two met a few weeks ago with VCU traveling to St Bonnies as a 2-point underdog. Everything looked great for the Rams at halftime as they jumped out to a 15-point lead scoring 40 points in the first half. Then came the VCU collapse. After scoring 40 points in the first half, they scored only 14 points in the second half and their 15 point lead at the break turned into a 16 point loss. VCU has won 4 straight since that loss and needless to say they’ve been waiting for this rematch. A win here and the Rams jump St Bonnies moving into first place in the Atlantic 10. Their defense has been lights out since that loss allowing 43, 62, 62, and 67 points over their last 4 games. The Rams are #2 in the A10 in defensive efficiency and #1 in defensive TO rate, blocked shots, and steals. At home this season they are averaging 78 PPG and allowing just 61 PPG. St Bonnies is a very solid team but they’ve played a very easy road schedule to date. The Bonnies are 3-2 SU on the road in league play but 2 of those wins came vs Fordham (last ranked team in the conference) and Duquesne (9th ranked team in the conference). Their most recent road game was @ St Louis who didn’t play a game for nearly a month (off from Dec 23 through Jan 26) and the Billikens beat St Bonaventure 70-59. Despite their easy road slate they are averaging just 63 PPG away from home while allowing 62 PPG. The favorite has covered 5 straight in this series and last year when these two met @ VCU, the Rams rolled up a huge 91-63 win. While we don’t expect a blowout here, we do like VCU to cover this small number at home. |
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02-11-21 | Purdue v. Minnesota -3.5 | Top | 68-71 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
#738 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota -3.5 over Purdue, Thursday at 5 PM ET - The Gophers have one of the largest home/road dichotomies in college basketball. They are 0-6 on the road but a near perfect 12-1 at home. In their home games they have a +13 point differential and they are allowing opponents to hit just 38% of their shot attempts. All but one of their Big 10 home wins have come by double digits. The Gophs are just 2-5 their last 7 games and this is a huge game in regards to their NCAA tourney hopes. It’s pretty much a must win game for Minnesota. These 2 met a few weeks ago in West Lafayette and the Boilers were a 2.5 point favorite. They rolled to any easy 81-62 win scoring 1.29 PPP which drastically outperformed their Big 10 season average of 1.02 PPP. The Boilers were also +11 makes at the FT line and hit 53% of their three pointers. Basically everything went right for Purdue on offense but we don’t expect that to happen again on the road where they shoot just 42% and they have a -2 point differential. The Gophs have already beaten many of the Big 10’s best here at home and beating them handily. They topped Michigan here by 16, OSU by 17 and Iowa by 7. Purdue is just 3-5 SU this year on the road and we expect a huge effort from Minny in a must win game with 2 of their next 3 games coming on the road where they’ve struggled. Low line here in our opinion meaning Minnesota just has to win at home. Minny has covered 7 of their last 8 home games and we’ll lay the bucket with the Gophers. |
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02-10-21 | Rutgers v. Iowa -6.5 | Top | 66-79 | Win | 100 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
#656 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Iowa -6.5 over Rutgers, Wed at 7:30 PM ET - Great value on Iowa here. They are in a bit of a funk losing 4 of their last 5 but they are still a top notch team and we expect them to play very well at home in this one. The Hawkeyes were just favored by 5 at home last week vs Ohio State (a team we have rated in the top 5 nationally) and now they are laying only 6 (as of Tues evening) vs Rutgers (a team we have power rated 30th). Iowa was favored by 4 at Rutgers earlier this year (won 77-75) telling us this number should be higher. They were favored by 10.5 at home vs Indiana in late January and we have the Hoosiers and Rutgers rated nearly dead even. Not only that, we are getting a very good Iowa team that is now backed into a corner so to speak after a string of losses. None of those losses, with the exception of their home loss vs Indiana, were bad losses so to speak. The Hawkeyes lost @ Indiana in OT over the weekend in a game they led by 10 in the second half and still led with under 2:00 minutes remaining. The other 2 losses were at home by 4 vs a very good OSU team (Iowa led 10 in 2nd half) along with a 5 point setback at Illinois. The Scarlet Knights have won 4 straight but all 4 have come vs teams ranked in the lower half of the Big 10. On the road they’ve played only 1 team this season that currently ranks in the top 6 of the conference and that was a 12 point loss @ OSU. They thrive on getting extra possessions by turning teams over but Iowa is the #1 team in the conference at not turning the ball over. Iowa is the most efficient offensive team in the nationally averaging 1.25 PPP and hit almost 40% of their 3’s in conference play. They should get to the line a lot in this game as Rutgers tends to foul quite a bit and while the Knights rarely get to the line (last in the Big 10) when they do it’s not pretty (60% as a team). We like Iowa to get rolling offensively at home and win this one by double digits. |
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02-09-21 | VCU v. Dayton +1.5 | Top | 76-67 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
#636 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Dayton +1.5 over VCU, Tuesday at 5 PM ET - These two met on January 23rd and VCU dealt the Flyers their most embarrassing loss of the season winning 66-43. It was their worst defeat in 3 seasons and after the game Dayton head coach Anthony Grant mentioned his disappointment in how his team handled adversity during that contest. Dayton had a school record low 13 points at halftime and the Flyers made only 17 shots the entire game including just 3 three pointers. That wasn’t indicative of this Dayton offense as they rank 2nd in the Atlantic 10 in both 3-point FG% and 2-point FG%. It was simply a terrible performance and a bad spot for Dayton as they were facing a VCU team that blew a 15 point halftime lead and lost by 16 to St Bonnies just a few days earlier. They were ready to play off that loss and it showed. Now we’re getting Dayton as a home dog which we think is some solid value in this spot. They are playing well having won 3 of 4 since that loss @ VCU including wins over St Louis (the highest rated team in the A10) & Rhode Island. They are also at home now where they have won 25 of their last 27 games. The Flyers are shooting 50% overall at home this year and nearly 41% from beyond the arc. VCU is coming off a huge road win last week as they beat Rhode Island 63-62. URI’s best player, Fats Russell (14 PPG), didn’t play in the game and it still went to the wire. In fact, Rhode Island led late and a 3 pointer by VCU with 5 seconds remaining gave them 1-point lead. URI then drew a foul with 1 second left but missed the front end of the bonus giving VCU the 1-point win. It looks like the Rams will be at less than full strength in this game with two of their key reserves, Curry & Clark, both injured and possibly out. You can bet Dayton will be more than ready for this rematch and we expect a much better shooting performance giving them the outright home win in this one. |
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02-08-21 | Oklahoma State v. Kansas -4.5 | Top | 66-78 | Win | 100 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
#864 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Kansas -4.5 over Oklahoma State, Monday at 9 PM ET - This situation sets up very nicely for KU at home. The Jayhawks are coming off a double digit loss on Saturday @ West Virginia. They are a bit undervalued at home here because they have lost 5 of their last 7 games, however all 5 of those losses come on the road. The fact is, Kansas is much better at home where they are 8-1 this season and 42-2 their last 44 at Allen Fieldhouse. These two met in mid January and KU was favored by 3.5 @ Okie State and now laying right around that number in this game because of their recent 2-5 run. The Jayhawks lost the first meeting 75-70 and they were -11 FT attempts in that game and they were throwing up bricks from deep hitting only 23% of their 3 pointers. Even with that Kansas still led by 3 points with just over 1:00 minute remaining in that road loss. The Cowboys are in a rough spot for a tough road game. They played host to Texas on Saturday and won a thriller in double OT. Three of their four starters logged 40+ minutes on Saturday and they were without one of the better players Moncrieffe (foot) who averages 10 PPG & 5 RPG and he is questionable again on Monday. The Longhorns took OSU to double OT on the road despite making only 20 of their 79 shots (25%) and Texas was a ridiculously poor 5 of 35 from deep (14%). OSU scores 56% of their points inside the arc in Big 12 play but Kansas is #1 in the conference at 2-point defense allowing just 45% shooting by opponents. In the first match up the Cowboys only made 47% of their 2-point shots but were able to make up for it at the FT line in a tight game. This should be a tired team and they most likely won’t have as many calls go their way @ Allen Fieldhouse. While Kansas is down a notch from past years, they are still a very solid team and they’ve dominated this series at home going 23-4 SU their last 27 home meetings with OSU. Last year they were favored by 15 here vs the Cowboys and won by 25. Now we're getting the Jayhawks at just -4.5 a year later in a favorable situation. We like Kansas to cover. |
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02-07-21 | Boise State -3.5 v. Nevada | Top | 62-73 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 50 m | Show |
#821 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Boise State -3.5 over Nevada, Sunday at 4 PM ET - These two met on Friday night and Nevada pulled the upset beating Boise 74-72 as a 4.5 point underdog. It was just the 3rd loss of the year for the Broncos who now stand at 14-3 overall. This situation sets up very similarly to a situation Boise encountered just over a week ago. They were @ Colorado State who is rated right around 30 spots higher than this Nevada team and Boise lost the opener of a 2 game series as a 3-point favorite. They bounced back on the road 2 days later and took out CSU by 8 points. When the Broncos met this Nevada team on Friday night, they led nearly the entire game. They were up by 5 at half and Nevada took their FIRST lead of the 2nd half with under 1:00 minute remaining in the game and went on to win by 2. The Wolfpack shot lights out for the game at 53% and still trailed nearly the entire way. It was Nevada’s 2nd highest shooting percentage of the entire year in MWC play (13 games). Can they pull that off again on Sunday? We highly doubt it as we expect Boise, who ranks 2nd in the conference in defensive efficiency and eFG% defense, to clamp down on that end of the court after playing poorly on Friday. While the Broncos defense is one of the best in the MWC, their offense IS the best in the conference as they average 1.16 PPP in league play (1st in the conference). On Friday they were solid on that end of the court (1.07 PPP) but still well below their average. The Broncos also turned the ball over on nearly 20% of their possessions which is very unlike they as they rank 1st in the conference in that category as well coughing it up just on 15% of possessions. So in other words, Nevada played a great game while Boise underperformed in most of their stats and the game still went to the wire. The Broncos are 13-3 ATS the game following a SU loss dating back to last year and we fully expect a top notch performance on Sunday. Lay the small number with Boise State. |
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02-06-21 | Wisconsin v. Illinois -3.5 | Top | 60-75 | Win | 100 | 8 h 47 m | Show |
#658 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Illinois -3.5 over Wisconsin, Saturday at 2:30 PM ET - This is a tough match up for the Badgers. Defensively, they struggle to contain athletic, quick back courts and Illinois has just that. They have problems staying with penetrating guards and on top of that UW usually has an advantage inside with Reuvers and Potter but that won’t necessarily be the case here. Illinois has two very good big men in Cockburn and Bezhanishvili who open up the outside for one of the top 3 point shooting teams in the nation (10th best in the country). Four of Illinois five losses have come vs teams that scored at least 80 points in their game. Wisconsin isn’t built to put up huge numbers offensively. In fact the Badgers have scored 80+ points in just 1 of their 12 Big 10 games (in regulation). They often win low scoring games and we’re not sure they can hold Illinois (8th most efficient offense in the country) in check here. So that means Wisconsin will have to keep up and we don’t think they can. Wisconsin has beaten the teams they are supposed to for the most part, however they’ve only played 2 teams ranked in the top 6 in the Big 10 and lost to both (Ohio State by 12 and Michigan by 23). The favorite is 19-7-1 ATS the last 27 meetings and this is simply a bad match up for Wisconsin. Lay the points. |
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02-05-21 | Maryland v. Penn State -2 | Top | 50-55 | Win | 100 | 7 h 57 m | Show |
#860 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Penn State -2 over Maryland, Friday at 7 PM ET - This one sets up nicely for PSU coming off an embarrassing effort @ Wisconsin while Maryland won a barn burner at home vs Purdue. The Nittany Lions played the Badgers back to back and we could see the potential for a blowout after they beat UW on Saturday and then had to travel to Madison on Tuesday. PSU was stymied by Wisconsin’s defense holding the Nits to just 56 points which again we could see coming after the Badgers played very poor defensive vs them a few days earlier. Penn State is undervalued right now because of their overall & Big 10 record (6-8 & 3-7) but this team is solid. They’ve had a number of players miss games this season and they are now getting healthy over the last few weeks with Sessoms and Dread back in the line up. They have won 3 of their last 5 games and one of those losses was a 4-point setback @ Ohio State, who just might be the best team in the Big 10 right now. PSU led by 8 in the 2nd half of that game. They are 3-1 at home in Big 10 play with their only loss coming vs Illinois before Christmas. Maryland is off a thrilling 61-60 win over Purdue at home. It was a game the Terps led for a total of 5:00 minutes and won the game on 2 FT’s with 3 seconds remaining. Tough spot for them with a home game vs Ohio State on deck as well. Both rely heavily on the 3-point shot offensively and while PSU is decent at defending the arc (114th nationally & 5th in the Big 10), Maryland stinks in that regard (249th nationally & 11th in the Big 10). PSU plays much better offensively at home averaging 81 PPG while hitting almost 47% of their shots. They’ve also had some back luck in conference play this year with opponents hitting nearly 79% of their FT’s vs PSU in league play. That won’t happen here as the Terps make just 64% of their freebies in conference play. The home team has won 7 straight in this series and the host has also covered 5 of the last 6. |
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02-04-21 | Cincinnati v. Temple +2.5 | Top | 63-60 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
#736 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Temple +2.5 over Cincinnati, Thursday at 7 PM ET - The Bearcats have had a long layoff having not played a game since January 10th. They had 6 straight games cancelled due to Covid within the program. Not only have they not played, they’ve practiced very little. In fact, their first 5 on 5 type practice in weeks was on Tuesday of this week. Head coach John Brannen also said his full roster will not be available for this game and he expects a few walk ons to log extended minutes in this game. So Cincy is laying points in this road tilt despite practicing just twice recently (Tues & Wed), without a full roster, and the chances of the players being in game shape is slim to none. On top of that, this simply isn’t the Cincinnati team of old as they were just 3-7 (1-4 in the AAC) when they had their extended break. Temple has been inconsistent but they’ve shown they have the ability to play very well at times. One of their key offensive players finally got into the line up in mid January as Butler transfer Khalif Battle has been able to play the last 4 games (11 PPG). Last week the Owls beat one of the top teams in the AAC here at home topping Tulsa 76-67. Tulsa was a 1.5 point favorite in that game and now Cincinnati is favored by 2.5? Tulsa is better than Cincinnati and beat the Bearcats on the road already this year. After their win vs Tulsa, the Owls laid an egg over the weekend losing at home to Tulane as an 8 point favorite. After that loss we expect Temple to play very well (third straight home game) before going on the road for 4 of their last 5. This is a big game for the Owls. Cincy is one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the country (328th) so they need to score inside the arc to be effective. That’s where the Temple defense excels ranking 48th nationally at defending 2-point attempts, The Owls also rarely send teams to the FT line so the Bearcats will struggle to score here. The last 2 seasons these teams have met 3 times with the Bearcats winning all 3 very tight by margins of 1, 4, and 7 points and those games took place when Cincy was a better team than they are right now. We fully expect Temple to get the home win here. Take the points here. |
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02-02-21 | North Carolina -3.5 v. Clemson | Top | 50-63 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* North Carolina -3.5 @ Clemson, 7 PM ET - Clemson has literally forgotten how to play defense as they’ve allowed 1.467, 1.327, 1.151 and 1.213 points per possession in four of their last five games. Those are all drastically higher than the D1 average of 1.018PPP. In the Tigers most recent game they gave up 79-points to a Duke team that ranks slightly higher in offensive efficiency in ACC play than this North Carolina team. The Tarheels are scoring 1.043 points per possession, 5th best in the conference. In comparison, Clemson is currently last in the ACC in offensive efficiency averaging less than .94PPP. Not only are the Tarheels better offensively but defensively it’s not close as Clemson is 3rd to last in the ACC in defensive efficiency, North Carolina is 6th. The Tarheels will own a decisive advantage on the boards with the 2nd best offensive rebounding team in the country. North Carolina has played well of late with three straight wins and 6 of their last seven. We don’t think the trend of horrendous defense by Clemson is going to end anytime soon and will look to play against them here. |
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01-29-21 | Ohio v. Buffalo -1.5 | Top | 76-75 | Loss | -117 | 6 h 10 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Buffalo -1.5 over Ohio, 7 PM ET - We are backing the home team Buffalo in this MAC showdown and expect a double-digit win by the home team. The Bulls stand 4-3 SU in conference play this season while Ohio U checks in at 5-4 SU. These two teams are very similar in terms of offensive efficiency in MAC play with Ohio averaging 1.124 points per possession while Buffalo averages 1.09PPP. Defensively it’s not close as the Bulls have the best defensive efficiency rating in conference play at .982PPP allowed compared to the Bobcats who give up 1.114PPP which ranks second to last in the MAC. Ohio is 0-4 against the top four teams in the conference (Buffalo is 5th) and lost by an average of 11PPG in all four. Buffalo is on a 4-1 ATS run right now and has covered 5 of their last six conference games. The Bulls have also won 7 of the last ten meetings with the Bobcats. When Ohio has faced better competition, it hasn’t gone well for them with a 2-5 ATS their last seven against a team with a winning record. Lastly, Buffalo has a +11PPG differential at home this season and should have their way offensively against a Bobcats defense allowing over 80PPG on the road. |
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01-28-21 | Morehead State v. Jacksonville State -4.5 | Top | 85-66 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
#736 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Jacksonville State -4.5 over Morehead State, Wednesday at 8:30 PM ET - These two met just a few weeks ago with Morehead winning 56-55 at home. Jacksonville State had a shot at the buzzer to pull off the road win but missed and came up just short. Jax State hit just 33% of their shot in that game and made only 6 of 23 from deep and still nearly won the game on the road. Now we’re getting great value in this revenge spot as Jacksonville State was favored by 3 @ Morehead State in that loss and now they are laying just 3.5 at home. Not only that, the Gamecocks were missing 2 key players in that game and still nearly won the game. Starting forward Kayne Henry and 6th man Amanze Ngumezi both issues that game and they’ve since come back and played very well. Ngumezi has scored 51 points in his 4 games since returning and Henry has put up 46 points in the same span. Morehead State is 8-2 in conference play but they’ve played on of the easiest slates thus far in the OVC and their last 3 wins have come vs the 2 lowest rated teams in the league. Jax State has just one home loss this year and that was vs Belmont the best team in the OVC (16-1 overall / 10-0 in conference play) and that was a tight game with the Gamecocks trailing by just 2 points with under 3:00 remaining int eh game. It was a 7 point win over Belmont but Jacksonville State hung to the end despite an -18 made FT margin. The Gamecocks shoot 50% at home and have a point margin if +17 per game at home. Morehead State has a -6 PPG margin on the road this year and we like Jax State to get their revenge at home on Thursday night. |
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01-27-21 | Boise State v. Colorado State +2.5 | Top | 56-78 | Win | 100 | 14 h 15 m | Show |
#692 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Colorado State +2.5 over Boise State, Wed at 9 PM ET - Wrong team is favored here according to our power ratings. Boise State sits at 9-0 in the MWC however they’ve played the easiest schedule in league play. The Broncos have not played a single team ranked in the top 6 in the conference. All 9 of their wins have come vs the bottom 5 teams in the Mountain West. The 5 teams they’ve faced in the MWC rank 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th, and 11th in conference defensive efficiency (MWC has 11 teams in the conference). The 5 offenses they’ve faced rank 5th, 8th, 9th, 10th and 11th in MWC offensive efficiency. Boise hasn’t faced a team ranked inside the top 180 since December 9th! CSU has an 8-2 conference record but they’ve had the much tougher slate. The Rams have already faced the 2 highest rated teams in the conference (San Diego St & Utah St) and split the 2 game series which each of those teams. On top of that, both of those 2 games series was on the road. Their most recent win they knocked off Utah State 84-76 on the road last Thursday after the Aggies entered the game winning 11 in a row. The Rams are happy to finally be at home where they are 6-0 this year but haven’t played here since January 9th. CSU is one of the best shooting teams in the nation ranking 21st in the country in eFG% and 3-point FG% while also making 77% of their FT’s. They are even better at home making over 50% of their shots and hitting 45% of their shots from deep. The Rams take out Boise tonight. |
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01-25-21 | Syracuse +6.5 v. Virginia | Top | 58-81 | Loss | -109 | 22 h 18 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Syracuse +6.5 over Virginia, 7PM ET Virginia is coming off a down to the wire win against Georgia Tech on Saturday, a game in which the Yellow Jackets led for most of the game. The Cavs were an 8.5-point home favorite in that game and recently a 9.5-point chalk against Notre Dame and those two teams aren’t as good as this Syracuse team. Virginia is just 1-2 ATS at home in conference action. The Cuse are off a pair of quality wins over Miami and Virginia Tech by 26 and 18-points respectively. In ACC play these two have similar overall efficiency numbers with Virginia first in offensive efficiency while Syracuse is 3rd. The Cavs check in with the 2nd ranked ACC defensive efficiency number while the Cuse are 5th. Points are a premium in this matchup of the 2/3 zone by Syracuse and the Pack-line D used by the Cavaliers which makes the dog that much more attractive. In the last two meetings (not including OT) these two have combined for 82 and 86 Total points. Grab the points with Syracuse. |
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01-23-21 | Duke v. Louisville -1 | Top | 65-70 | Win | 100 | 19 h 54 m | Show |
#676 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Louisville -1 over Duke, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET - We’re not jumping off this train yet. We’ve gone against Duke in each of their last 2 games and cashed on both @ Va Tech and @ Pitt. Now they are playing their 3rd straight road game @ Louisville on Saturday. The Devils continue to be overvalued as they are now 1-8 ATS on the season and their spread losses have come by an average of 12 PPG. In other words, they aren’t even close to covering. Louisville is coming off a home loss on Monday vs a red hot FSU team. The Noles are playing FAR better than Duke right now and the Cards were favored by 4 in that game. Now laying only 2 points vs a Duke team that is really struggling. The Devils aren’t built to win on the road right now. They aren’t a good 3-point shooting team (223rd nationally) and they don’t defend the 3 point line well (295th nationally). They don’t get to the FT line with only 13.7% of their points coming from the line (332nd nationally) so they have to shoot really well to have a chance to win and they simply aren’t a great shooting team. On top of that, Duke has been sending teams to the line a lot in ACC play with almost 20% of opponents points coming from the stripe. The Devils also rank dead last in the league in defensive efficiency (conference games). The Cards are every bit as good as Va Tech & Pitt, the 2 teams that just beat Duke (by 7 & 6 points) and coming off a home less sets them up for a solid performance. We fade Duke again on Saturday. |
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01-22-21 | St. Peter's +4.5 v. Siena | Top | 68-62 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* St Peters +4.5 over Siena, 7 PM ET - Siena is what we call a ‘false favorite’ as their undefeated record of 6-0 SU has them over-valued here. Siena has played all conference opponents to date but four of those games were against Rider and Fairfield who are 6-14 in Metro action and two of the worst teams in the league. St Peters has faced Niagara and Canisius who are both better than Rider and Fairfield and both teams have faced Monmouth. Siena beat Monmouth twice while St Peters split with them, winning by 2 and losing by 2. The lines on the games against Monmouth are the tell in this situation as St Peters was favored by 2-points in both games at Monmouth while Siena was -2.5-point favorites at home. In fact, St Peters has been a favorite in every conference game this season. Last season these teams met twice and both games went down to the wire with a 5-point and 3-point margin. Siena also has some injury concerns while the Peacocks are healthy. Easy call here with the points. |
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01-21-21 | Wichita State +3 v. Memphis | Top | 52-72 | Loss | -103 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
#730 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Wichita State +3 over Memphis, Thursday at 7 PM ET - Memphis continues to be overrated by the oddsmakers. They have lost 7 straight games vs the number by a combined 57 points or -8 PPG vs the spread. Since December 1st the Tigers haven’t beaten a single team ranked inside the top 100. They are 1-5 SU overall vs top 100 teams with their lone win in their season opener vs St Marys. They are 2-2 in the AAC with their wins coming vs Tulane by 6 and South Florida by 1. Those 2 teams are ranked last and 8th in the 11 team conference. Their 2 losses came vs Tulsa, a team Wichita just beat by 19 in their most recent game (they’ve already beaten Tulsa twice). The Shockers have been impressive this year with 4 wins already vs top 100 opponents and their only 3 losses have come at the hands of Missouri (by 10), Oklahoma State (by 3) and Houston (by 7) – all ranked inside the top 40 with Houston currently ranked 8th. Their 7 point loss @ Houston was the Cougars closest win this season and a game the Shockers led by 7 in the 2nd half. Wichita has played the much tougher schedule and much more consistent schedule as they’ve played 4 games in January but have had a week off to get ready for this game. Memphis, on the other hand, just played their first game since December 29th last Sunday, a 58-57 loss @ Tulsa. The Tigers are a poor shooting team that has only top 0.90 PPP once in their last 5 games. The last three games they’ve scored 49, 58, and 57 points. We don’t think they should be favored in this game so we’ll grab the generous points with Wichita State |
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01-19-21 | Colorado State +7.5 v. Utah State | Top | 64-83 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Colorado State +7.5 @ Utah State, 9 PM ET - Utah State is coming off a HUGE 2-game series with San Diego State and played both games at a high level, so a letdown is imminent. San Diego State was one of the favorites to win the conference this season which is why they were small favorites in both game on this court over the weekend with the Aggies. Those two wins by Utah State has caused an over-reaction by the oddsmakers which has driven this line up to where it is now, yet Colorado State may be better than San Diego State. CSU is 3rd in the conference in OEFF at 1.115 (San Diego State 8th) and 3rd in DEFF (SDSU 5th). The Rams are a great shooting team with an EFG% of 56 (23rd in nation), 39.2% 3-point shooting (21st) a 2-pt percentage of 53.5%. Utah State will have a much tougher time defending the Rams shooters in this game than they did SDSU. Utah State has some incredible defensive numbers this season but prior to the two games against San Diego State they hadn’t played a team ranked higher than 212 per KenPom in 8 straight games. We like the Rams and the points here in a close game. |
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01-18-21 | Florida State v. Louisville -1.5 | Top | 78-65 | Loss | -112 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
#876 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Louisville -1.5 over Florida State, Monday at 7 PM ET - The Cards are coming off a 78-72 loss @ Miami in a game they were favored by -4.5 points. Their starting guards, Jones and Johnson, both shoot around 40% from 3-point land combined for 2 of 9 from deep on Saturday. The Cards as a team made only 3 of 20 from deep which was the difference in the game. The should fare much better at home on Monday vs an FSU defense that is poor at defending the arc (263rd nationally). The Noles topped North Carolina on Saturday, however the Heels, who entered Saturday ranked 11th in the ACC in 3-point shooting, made 10 shots from deep vs FSU. The Noles had a long 2+ week break recently due to covid issues and they’ve had 2 games since that break both at home last Wednesday and on Saturday. They won both games and their offense was ridiculously good. Over the 2 games they made 65 of their 108 shot attempts (60%), 20 of their 34 three point attempts (59%), and 37 of their 38 FT attempts (97%). While they do have an efficient offense, those numbers are not sustainable especially now that they take the road for only the 2nd time this season. Their first road game was @ Clemson and FSU lost that game by 10 shooting 42% overall and just 28% from deep. They are facing a very solid Louisville defense (allowing 0.93 PPP) coming off one of their worst efforts of the year on Saturday as Miami hit them for 1.15 PPP. Expect the Cards to play very well defensively on Monday. FSU is also a bit banged up with guards Barnes (11 PPG) possibly out and and Walker (16 PPG) a game time decision. Louisville is 7-0 at home this year and they are also 19-4 their last 23 home meetings with FSU. The Noles are a bit overvalued right now and Louisville is at home off a loss. Nice spot to lay the small number. |
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01-16-21 | Baylor -4.5 v. Texas Tech | Top | 68-60 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
#691 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Baylor -4.5 over Texas Tech, 4:00 PM ET - Baylor has been one of two dominant teams this year along with Gonzaga. The Bears are 11-0 with all 11 wins coming by double digits. That includes 4 wins vs top 100 teams and an 13 point win vs an outstanding Illinois team who ranks 8th nationally in the power rankings. Their average margin of victory on the season is +28 points. They rank in the top 5 nationally in BOTH offensive and defensive efficiency. The Bears also rank in the top 10 nationally in eFG%, 3 point %, and offensive rebounding. This is as complete a team as you’ll find in the nation. Texas Tech is solid. They are not on the same level as Baylor. The Red Raiders have already lost 2 home games vs Oklahoma State & Kansas. They have won just 2 games this season vs top 50 teams both by margins of 2 points. Tech is coming off a huge won @ Texas winning 79-77 on a last second shot by Mac McClung. The Raiders were more than fortunate as they led that game for a total of 45 seconds. Baylor won both games in this Big 12 series last year and the Bears have taken a big step forward while our ratings have Tech at about the same level as a year ago. We actually feel Tech is a bit overvalued as they’ve lost 5 straight home games to the number. Baylor is the much better team this season and we’ll lay the small number. |
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01-14-21 | Stanford v. Utah +1.5 | Top | 65-79 | Win | 100 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Utah +1.5 over Stanford, 5 PM ET *Early tip* With public money immediately flowing in on Stanford this line moved the opposite direction which grabbed our attention. Utah has some tremendous offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency numbers despite playing a brutally tough schedule. The Utes have lost four straight games, but it came against teams rated 28th or better by Kenpom. Utah lost three of those games close to UCLA by 2, Oregon by 6 and Colorado by 7-points and they got outscored from the charity strip by 16 in that one. Stanford has won 3 in a row, but they’ve been playing the bottom of the Pac 12 conference unlike Utah. The Cardinal’s two toughest games have been against Arizona who they beat by 3 and Oregon who they lost by 17. The home team has won 9 of the last ten meetings and Utah is in a desperate situation here. Bet against the public and play on Utah here. |
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01-13-21 | NC State +4.5 v. Florida State | Top | 73-105 | Loss | -108 | 21 h 54 m | Show |
#661 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* NC State +4.5 over Florida State, Wed at 6:30 PM ET - We think this NC State team is undervalued. They are 6-3 on the season but definitely better than their record. This team has only been at 100% for a few games this season as starters Hayes and Funderburk (now coming off bench) have missed a few key games. The Wolfpack are coming off 2 straight losses @ Clemson in OT and at home vs an underrated Miami team in tight game over the weekend. The Canes shot the lights out over the weekend hitting nearly 50% of their shots with NC State hitting only 38% yet the game went to the wire. Because of Covid issues, Florida State hasn’t played in over 2 weeks. Their last game was a 10 point loss @ Clemson on December 29th. Tough to not play a game for that long and come back at an optimum level. Despite their 6-3 record, the Wolfpack are +12 PPG on the season while the 5-2 Seminoles are +8 PPG with a very similar strength of schedule. FSU head coach Leonard Hamilton was blunt about the interruption, "In practice we very seldom, ever, ever have a starting lineup together. We never practice who starts together. We practice different lineups and different groups of guys every day. ... Because we have different mixtures. Everybody's got to blend in." FSU won both games last year in tight fashion with margins of 5 & 6 points giving a little extra motivation to the Wolfpack. We think NC State has a great shot to win this one and we’re getting a decent cushion with the pointspread here. |
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01-12-21 | Duke v. Virginia Tech +2 | Top | 67-74 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
#624 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Virginia Tech +2 over Duke, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Duke has been shaky at best all season long with a 6-2 record and their only top 100 win coming vs Notre Dame. The Devils have played only one road game all season and that was over 3 weeks ago. They have played only 2 games since December 16th due to some covid issues. In their 2 games since December 16th they had to come from 16 points down at home to beat a 2-9 Boston College team by 1 points. Duke also beat Wake Forest at home by 11 but the game was much closer than that as the game was tied midway through the 2nd half and they didn’t take their first 10+ point lead until 3:00 minutes remaining in the game. This is a very young team that isn’t built to win games on the road. They rarely get to the FT line (13% of their points from the line – 327th nationally) and they’re poor at defending the arc. Va Tech is 9-2 on the season and their only loss since December 8th was a 2 point loss @ Louisville. They are very solid 3-point shooting team hitting 36% which matches up very nicely vs this Duke defense. The Hokies have covered 5 of their last 6 and remain very underrated in our opinion. This Duke team is nowhere near as good as their teams yet they are still getting the respect because of their name. They are just 1-6 ATS their last 7 games and we’re getting the better team at home around a pick-em here. Take Virginia Tech. |
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01-11-21 | Loyola-Chicago -6.5 v. Indiana State | Top | 58-48 | Win | 100 | 6 h 59 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Loyola Chicago -6.5 over Indiana State, 7PM ET - Loyola Chicago was thrown a “Covid-curveball” when they were scheduled to play Missouri Valley leader Drake this past weekend but instead faced Indiana State. Because of a Covid outbreak on Drakes roster the Ramblers were instead forced to change last minute and travel to play Indiana State. In an obvious let down situation Loyola lost to the Sycamores by 5-points with the big difference in the game being a +12 margin of made free throws for Indiana State. Loyola was projected to be one of the best teams in the MVC this season while Indiana State was expected to finish near the bottom. In fact, the Ramblers rate higher in our power ratings than undefeated Drake, who beat Indiana State on their home court by 18 and 7-points. Prior to the upset in the game Sunday to Indiana State, the Ramblers two previous losses were to quality foes Richmond and Wisconsin. Loyola is the most efficient offense in the Missouri Valley and 2nd in defensive efficiency. Indiana State is the 4th worst in OEFF, 6th worst in DEFF. The Ramblers get payback here after the upset Sunday. |
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01-08-21 | Youngstown State v. Wright State -11.5 | Top | 74-72 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 59 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Wright State -11.5 over Youngstown State, 7 PM ET - We feel Wright State is the best team in the Horizon conference this season, yet they are looking up at Illinois Chicago and Cleveland State in the standings. Cleveland State is 6-0 in league play but have played three of the worst teams in the league in IUPUI, IPFW and this same Youngstown State team that Wright State plays today. Cleveland State beat this Youngstown State team by 18 and 7-points earlier this season. Wright State had ripped off 7 wins in a row before an upset loss to Oakland their last time out. After beating Oakland, the night before by 29, the Raiders lost by 10 as an 11-point chalk. We’ve said it a million times and will say it again, bet good teams off bad losses! Wright State has an adjusted defensive efficiency rating of 64th and an AEO of 116th. Youngstown State is 2-4 in league play and coming off a pair of home games against UW Green Bay who might be the worst team in the Horizon. YSU beat UWGB in the first meeting by 7, then lost the next day by 10 in OT. That’s the same UWGB team Wright State beat by 14 and 13. Wright State has the 2nd best offensive efficiency rating in the Horizon and will exploit a Penguins team that is last in the conference in defensive efficiency allowing 1.183 points per possession. The key here is whether or not Wright State will be motivated against this lesser opponent and we know they will be off a loss in their last game AND a loss to YSU last year in the final meeting of the season. |
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01-07-21 | Murray State -2.5 v. Eastern Illinois | Top | 68-74 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Murray State -2.5 over Eastern Illinois, 8:30 PM ET - Murray State was picked as one of the contenders in the Ohio Valley Conference this year but have gotten off to a 1-3 start. Two of those losses came against Austin Peay and Belmont who are currently two of the top five teams in the OVC. The most recent loss for the Racers came to Morehead State at home which broke a 25-game winning streak on their home court. Eastern Illinois is coming off a win at home which extended their home record to 3-0 this season. Closer inspection though shows those three wins came against weak competition that are not on the level as Murray State. The Panthers most recent win came by 6-points over Tennessee Tech who is one of the worst teams in the OVC. EIU struggles to defend with an efficiency rating of 220th allowing 1.011 points per possession. Their EFG% defense is also horrendous ranking 266th. The Panthers offense isn’t much better ranking 152nd in OEFF at less than 1-point per possession. The Racers are similar to the Panthers in terms of offensive efficiency but much better on the defensive end of the floor allowing .975PPP (135th). The Racers have won 41 out of their 50 regular season meetings and 19 of 27 games at Lantz Arena. Up until their loss there at the end of last season, the Racers had won five in a row and 10 of the last 12 on this court. The Racers bounce back here. |
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01-04-21 | Colorado State v. San Diego State -8 | Top | 65-78 | Win | 100 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* San Diego State -8 over Colorado State, 9 PM ET - San Diego State was just favored by 9-points at home against Colorado State and lost after leading by 26-points in the game. It was the largest comeback win in D1 this season and also in the last ten seasons. Now we are getting a better number with a highly motivated Aztecs team with payback on their minds. The Rams lost by 20-points to Saint Mary’s earlier this season and we have San Diego State rated significantly higher. Colorado State has played a significantly weaker schedule than SDSU and yet the Aztecs rate exponentially better in both offensive and defensive efficiency ratings. Last season on this same court San Diego State was favored by 13-points against CSU, then this year 9-points and now we have a bargain price in this rematch. The Aztecs are 10-2 SU off a loss their last twelve and have won by an average of 15PPG. San Diego has enjoyed a tremendous home court advantage with a 32-6 SU record since 2018 with a +15.1PPG positive differential. Payback here in this quick turnaround. |
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01-03-21 | Ohio State v. Minnesota +1 | Top | 60-77 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* #840 Minnesota +1 over Ohio State, 5:30 PM ET - Good spot to play on the Gophers here as they are off a loss at Wisconsin and back at home where they are 34-8 SU since 2018. Minnesota has also won those games since 2018 by an average of 10.7PPG. The Gophers are also 19-11 SU when coming off a loss their last 30. Minnesota has played the tougher schedule than Ohio State who we feel is overrated and played a weaker schedule. The Gophers two losses this season came at two top ranked venues in Illinois and Wisconsin. Between those two losses the Gophers beat three quality foes in Saint Louis, Iowa and Michigan State. Minnesota is 29th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 48th in adjusted defensive efficiency. Ohio State has a pair of losses on their resume too, at Purdue and at Northwestern. The Buckeyes best win this season was at home against Rutgers. OSU has better efficiency rating but that is a byproduct of a weaker schedule. Minnesota has beaten this team two straight times and did so rather handily. Great spot to bet them here. |
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01-01-21 | Texas-Arlington v. Arkansas-Little Rock -4 | Top | 93-102 | Win | 100 | 6 h 1 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Arkansas Little Rock -4 over Texas Arlington, 5 PM ET - Sun Belt action tips off for both teams with UALR looking to repeat as Champions after a 15-5 conference record a year ago. The Trojans return their 7 top scorers from a year ago but have largely underachieved this season with 3 straight spread losses. But that recent trend has affected the number and we get the opportunity to buy low with UALR. In their last game the Trojans lost to Missouri State as they dressed just 8 players and had to finish the game with 4 on the floor. The players that missed that game on Dec 21 because of Covid protocols are expected back here. The Trojans have beaten UTA four straight times on this floor. Arlington returns some sophomores and juniors to this team and have some juco transplants, but they were still 7th in the Sun Belt a year ago. UTA is on a 3-game winning streak but they came against D2 schools. Arkansas Little Rock will be properly motivated here to start conference play and will hold a decisive advantage on the boards with a big front line going against a smaller lineup for UTA. |
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12-28-20 | Michigan State -2.5 v. Minnesota | Top | 56-81 | Loss | -111 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Michigan State -2.5 over Minnesota, 8 PM ET - Why is Michigan State favored on the road after they just lost to Wisconsin and the Gophers are off an upset win of Iowa? Not only is Minnesota coming off that huge win over the #4 Hawkeyes, but they have a date with the Wisconsin Badgers next. Granted, MSU is still a big-name opponent but they have lost two straight and we guarantee the Gophers have noticed. Michigan State is 64-23 SU off a loss with an average margin of victory of +10PPG since 2010. If we look at the Spartans recent numbers off a loss, we find they are 28-11 SU since 2015, +10.4PPG. These two teams are relatively even in defensive efficiency ratings but MSU has a slight advantage offensively and they’ve faced a tougher schedule. Minnesota is 3-2 SU their last five as a home dog but they can’t capture the energy from their home crowd in the current Covid setting. The favorite has covered 7-straight in this series and the Spartans in a desperate situation make it 8 in a row. |
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12-27-20 | Canisius v. Monmouth -5 | Top | 66-84 | Win | 100 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Monmouth -5 over Canisius, 2 PM ET - Great spot to play on Monmouth and fade Canisius in this Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference. Last season these two teams met twice with Monmouth winning by 19 on this floor and 14 at Canisius. It clearly wasn’t a fluke Monmouth won twice considering they shot 49 and 50 percent in the two games and held Canisius to just 40% shooting in both contests. Last season Monmouth was the 3rd most efficient offense in the MAAC and 2nd best in defensive efficiency. Canisius was 7th in OEFF, 8th in DEFF. The Monmouth Hawks just split a pair of games with St Peters who finished second in the conference a year ago. Both games against St Pete’s went down to the wire and were decided by just 2-points. The Golden Griffins of Canisius split a pair of games with Marist to start the season and Marist was 7-23 SU last season and last in the conference. This is a bargain price and we’ll jump on the Hawks! |
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12-25-20 | Wisconsin v. Michigan State +1.5 | Top | 85-76 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 33 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Michigan State +1.5 over Wisconsin, Friday, 12:30PM ET - You couldn’t ask for a better “play on” situation with Michigan State in this contest. The Spartans are off a tough road loss at Northwestern and played as poorly as I’ve ever seen a Tom Izzo team play. In fact, Izzo publicly shamed his team after the game for the horrendous performance. Michigan State is 64-22 SU off a loss with an average margin of victory of +10PPG since 2010. If we look at the Spartans recent numbers off a loss, we find they are 28-10 SU since 2015, +10.4PPG. MSU has been a home underdog JUST 3 times in the last 20 years and you can bet this is a motivating factor. Granted, we can’t ignore the Badgers are 15-6 SU since 2015 as an away favorite but this is not a familiar situation against this level of competition. In fact, the Badgers were favored by 4.5 at Marquette and lost earlier this year. Last season Badgers were a 5-point home underdog to MSU and won 64-63 which makes this line off even more. Prior to last year, the Spartans had won 8 straight in this series. The Michigan State loss to Northwestern doesn’t look as bad now that the Wildcats just won on the road against a good Indiana team. Wisconsin has been at home for most of the start of the season and face a really tough road game here. MSU is 76-9 SU their last 85 at home and won those games by an average of 19PPG. Take Michigan State! |
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12-23-20 | Illinois -4 v. Penn State | Top | 98-81 | Win | 100 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Illinois -4 at Penn State, 6:30 PM ET - We can’t pass on the opportunity to bet on an elite team such as Illinois coming off a loss. The Illini lost last time out at Rutgers by 3-points but were outscored at the free throw line by 14-points. Illinois shot well for the game by hitting 54% from the field, 60% from Downtown. Illinois has the 7th best offensive efficiency rating in college hoops at 1.147 points per possession and rank 37th in defensive efficiency allowing just .922PPP. Penn State is also coming off a loss at Michigan, but they were not expected to win as a 7-point dog. The Nittany Lions also have top 40 ratings in both offensive and defensive efficiency which is why the line on this game is as low as it is. The two previous times the Illini have been beaten this season they bounced back with blowout wins over Duke and Minnesota. Illinois will get a double-digit win here. |
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12-22-20 | St. Mary's v. San Diego State -2.5 | Top | 49-74 | Win | 100 | 15 h 17 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* San Diego State -2.5 over St Mary, CA 9 PM ET - Great situation here with a very good San Diego State team coming off a loss to another solid team in BYU. The Aztecs have played one of the tougher schedules to date with quality wins over UCLA, Pepperdine and Arizona State. San Diego State is the 54th rated offensive efficiency unit in college hoops averaging 1.080 points per possession and a defense that gives up just .910PPP which is 26th best. St Mary’s is obviously a quality team this season with an 8-1 SU record but their strength of schedule of 185 doesn’t compare with SDSU. San Diego State was 30-2 last season and have 70% of their roster intact. Off their loss the Aztecs rebound here with a win. |
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12-14-20 | Nevada -3.5 v. San Diego | Top | 79-72 | Win | 100 | 5 h 26 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* Nevada -3.5 over San Diego, 9 PM ET - We feel this is a generous number by the oddsmakers and will gladly side with the Wolfpack in this situation. Nevada was just favored by 1-point at Grand Canyon who is MUCH better than San Diego and lost by 10-points. Nevada is rebuilding this season with several new faces but there seems to be some continuity building on the offensive end of the floor where they have shot over 50% the last two contests. San Diego is going to struggle to score here with an offense that made just 31% of their field goal attempts in their opener against UCLA. That number is not an aberration though as the Toreros were putrid on offense a year ago ranking 315th in offensive efficiency at .944 points per possession. San Diego had one of the worst effective field goal percentages in the nation last season at 45.9%, they hit just 30.7% of their 3-pointers and 45.8% from inside the arc, which are again some of the worst statistics in college hoops a season ago. San Diego closed last season with a 2-15 SU record and we do not see them keeping pace with a Nevada team that is much better offensively (1.017PPP) and coming off a loss. |
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03-11-20 | North Carolina -3 v. Syracuse | Top | 53-81 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON North Carolina -3 over Syracuse, Wednesday at 9:30 PM ET We were on UNC yesterday and picked up an easy win as the routed Va Tech. We like the Heels again for many of the same reasons we stated yesterday. This is a very talented team that simply had a poor season. They have new life now with a shot to make the NCAA tourney and we felt they play as they’d play well and they did. UNC is on a nice roll right now winning 4 of their last 5 with their only loss coming @ Duke in a game that was closer than the final score indicated. Much of their late season success is because this team is finally fully healthy. Their top players, Cole Anthony, missed 11 games due injury. Their 3rd leading scorer, Brandon Robinson, also missed time because of an injury and these two were rarely on the court at the same time. Now they are healthy and in yesterday’s win over the Hokies they combined for 27 points, 14 rebounds, and 6 assists. They were also both healthy when the Tar Heels faced this Syracuse team in the Carrier Dome late in the season. UNC rolled to an easy 92-79 win in that game and it was the home finale for the Orange. North Carolina is one of the top rebounding teams in the nation and that showed last night as they gathered a huge 45 boards to just 30 for VT. They were +9 on the glass @ Syracuse gathering 40% of their misses in that game in the Dome. We see nothing changing here as the Cuse is the worst defensive rebounding team in the ACC and 329th nationally. Add that to the fact that UNC is starting to play very well offensively averaging 85 PPG, 48% shooting, and 42% from 3 over their last 5 games while scoring more than 1.10 PPP in 4 of those 5 games, and it will be very tough for Syracuse to stay in this one. The Orange had 10 ACC wins, however 6 of those came against the 4 lowest rated teams in the league (BC twice, Pitt twice, Wake, and Va Tech). They are heading in the opposite direction losing 7 of their last 11 including a setback vs Miami FL (7-13 in the ACC) despite the Canes playing without their leading scorer. UNC already proved they could handle Syracuse and that was on the road. Now on a neutral court where the Heels were able to get comfortable playing yesterday (@ UNC Greensboro) we give them a big advantage here. North Carolina remains very dangerous and they move on with another win. |
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03-10-20 | North Carolina -2.5 v. Virginia Tech | Top | 78-56 | Win | 100 | 24 h 25 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON North Carolina -2.5 over Virginia Tech, Tuesday at 7 PM ET UNC finished with a 6-14 ACC record which was their worst mark since 2010. This is obviously a program that is used to winning as they’ve averaged 13 ACC wins over the previous 9 seasons leading into this year. They have talent, including a lottery pick in PG Anthony, who is back after missing much of the season. We think the Heels are a dangerous team right now for that reason. It’s a new season and if the win the ACC tourney they go to the NCAA tourney. New life for this team. They were playing well down the stretch winning 3 of their last 4 with their only loss @ Duke over the weekend. UNC lost that game by 13 but it was a 2-point game with under 10 minutes remaining. This team was playing their best basketball of the season heading into Saturday’s game @ Duke as over the last 5 games they’ve averaged 80 PPG shooting 47% overall and 37% from deep. Anthony, one of the best players in the country, missed 11 games from December 15th through the end of January. Even though he’s a freshman, he should be fresh for this tourney. Not only did Anthony miss time but Brandon Robinson, the Heels 3rd leading scorer, also missed a number of games this year including 4 straight between Feb 3rd and Feb 11th. Both are back and healthy. Since mid December, those 2 players have started and played together in only 6 games because of their injuries. This is a full strength North Carolina team that was simply haven’t seen for much of the season. Virginia Tech is an extremely young team with 5 freshmen in their top 7 including 3 starters. Many times freshmen can struggle late in the year because it’s such a long season and a grind they are not used to. We’ve seen that with the Hokies who’ve only won 2 of their last 12 games with those freshmen playing significant minutes. This will be VT’s 4th game in the last 10 days with 3 of those coming on the road, including a loss @ Notre Dame just a few days ago (Saturday). These two met once this season with Tech winning at home in OT 79-77. The Tar Heels were very short handed for that game with both Anthony & Robinson out and still took the Hokieks to OT on the road. UNC had some stinkers this year but for the most part they were competitive in their losses. Six of their last nine losses have come by 6 points or less and that includes games vs Duke (lost on OT at home), Virginia (lost by 2) and FSU (lost by 6 on the road). We’ve got a strong feeling we’ll see a very solid UNC team on Tuesday night as they enter a new season where everyone is 0-0. Lay the points with the Tar Heels. |
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03-09-20 | Green Bay +5 v. Northern Kentucky | Top | 69-80 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 38 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON UW Green Bay +5 over Northern Kentucky, Monday at 9:30 PM ET The Final 4 of the Horizon League tourney is being played in Indianapolis at IUPUI’s home court. This game has the #2 seed Northern Kentucky facing the #3 seed UW Green Bay. We really like how UWGB is playing coming into this game winning 7 of their last 9 games. That includes a win last Thursday in the opening round of this tourney as they topped Oakland in Green Bay by a final score of 78-63. Northern Kentucky had a bye and is playing their first game in this tourney. We think that absolutely favors Green Bay. They are playing well and sometimes a long layoff can be bad for a team. The Phoenix played at home to end the regular season on Saturday, Feb 29th. They followed that up with the win on Thursday we talked about above and now play tonight. So plenty of rest between games while still playing. NKU, on the other hand, hasn’t played a game period since Saturday, Feb 29th and that’s the only game they have played since February 22nd. Thus the Norse have played 1 game in the last 15 days. Not ideal in our opinion. These two split their regular season match ups with UWGB winning @ NKU by 14 and the Norse returning the favor and winning @ Green Bay by 9. The Phoenix are the much better shooting team in this match up. They shoot 45% on the season and they are the 27th best 3-point shooting team in the nation. NKU sits just inside 300th overall shooting (288th) and they are one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the country (298th). The defensive edge might go to Northern but if so it’s a slight one. UWGB has never been known as a great defensive team although they’ve flown under the radar on that end of the court this season. The rank 4th in eFG% defense, 4th in 2-point defense, and 3rd in the conference in 3-point defense. They’ve also locked down NKU in their 2 meetings this year holding them to 35% shooting. In their home loss to NKU, the difference was FT’s as the Norse attempted 27 freebies and made 20 while GB attempted 12 and made 7. In a 9-point game that was absolutely the difference. When the FT’s were basically even @ Northern Kentucky (16 attempts for GB / 13 attempts for NKU) the Phoenix won by double digits. The Norse finished 2nd in the conference 2 games ahead of GB but we think the Phoenix are the better team right now. Take the points. |
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03-08-20 | Valparaiso v. Bradley -3 | Top | 66-80 | Win | 100 | 2 h 38 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Bradley -3 over Valparaiso, Sunday at 2 PM ET Valpo is are now playing their 4th straight game in the MVC tourney and history says they won’t win this one. In fact, never has a MVC team played in the opening round on Thursday and won this tournament. In other words winning 4 games in 4 days has never happened here. The physical toll is just too much to overcome. They are a tired and their coach Matt Lottich admitted as much. Their top player, Javon Freeman-Liberty, just returned from mono and looked really tired the first 2 games. Lottich also said Freeman-Liberty was still “under the weather”. Well he scored 29 points yesterday which we didn’t see happening and played another 33 minutes. We just don’t see him being effective in this spot after logging 101 minutes the last 3 days coming off a fairly significant illness. Based on his performance the first 2 games which was not good, yesterday was an outlier and we think he, along with the entire Valpo team will struggle today. Three of their starters have played over 100 minutes already in this tourney and they have to be tired. There is no way around that. They shot 48% yesterday which was again, unexpected and an outlier in our mind after they shot 43% and 42% their first 2 games. After averaging 0.88 and 1.03 points per possession in their first 2 games here, the Crusaders broke out for 1.24 PPP in yesterday’s game. Again, we just don’t see them being able to keep up at that rate, especially now facing a Bradley defense that was #1 in the MVC in eFG% defense. The Crusaders were also given a boost by the refs as they called 25 fouls on Missouri State and just 16 on Valpo leading to 16 more FT attempts (+10 made FT’s). Again an outlier as the Crusaders got to the line fewer than any other team in the MVC during the regular season. The Braves will be playing their 3rd game in this tourney so they should definitely have more energy than Valpo. They also controlled the entire game yesterday in their 10 point win vs Drake so they were able to spread out their minutes with 8 guys getting double digit minutes. Bradley is also accustomed to this situation as they won this tournament last year before losing in the first round of the NCAA tourney to Michigan State. These 2 split their meetings this year with Valpo winning by 12 on their home court and Bradley winning by 11 at home. The favorite has covered 6 straight in this series and we just don’t see Valparaiso bringing enough energy to the table to allow them to get a win in this do or die spot. Lay it with Bradley. |
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03-07-20 | Ole Miss v. Mississippi State -6 | Top | 44-69 | Win | 100 | 20 h 56 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Mississippi State -6 over Ole Miss, Saturday at 6:30 PM ET We think we’re getting great value here with Mississippi State at home. These two met less than a month ago on February 11th and the Bulldogs were actually favored on the road in that game by 1 point. Now we’re laying only 5 points with them at home when it could easily be 7 or 8 based on the line @ Ole Miss. For comparison’s sake, our SEC power ratings have Mississippi State and Auburn rated almost dead even and Ole Miss opened +9 @ Auburn less than 2 weeks ago. Another comparison would be MSU’s most recent home game in which they were favored by 5 vs Alabama (same spread as this game). We have Bama rated a full 40 spots ahead of Ole Miss in our national power ratings. The Bulldogs are playing their home finale here and should be plenty motivated after getting blasted @ Ole Miss in February 83-58. In that game MSU was leading 31-18 with just 4:00 minutes remaining in the first half and completely collapsed getting outscored 63-27 the rest of the way! The Rebels averaged 1.22 points per possession in that game and to give you an idea of how out of line that is for them, they average under 1.00 PPP in conference play this year. We don’t expect the Rebs to get anywhere near those numbers in this game as they average just 61 PPG on the road this year while shooting 37%. They are 1-7 SU in SEC road games and have topped 1.00 PPP just once. MSU is 7-1 SU at home in SEC play and that loss came way back on January 4th, their first conference game of the season. Their average margin of victory in this 7 SEC home wins is +14 points. Their only home win that came by less than tonight’s spread was vs South Carolina where the Bulldogs led by 11 with just over 1:00 minute remaining but won by just 3. Normally they are tough to come back on late if they have a lead because they shoot 79% from the FT line in conference play. MSU sits at 10-7 in the SEC and win in their final home game could move them into a tie for 2nd place depending on what teams above them do. This is a very manageable line for Mississippi State and we expect them to win this one by double digits. |
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03-06-20 | VCU v. Davidson -4 | Top | 65-75 | Win | 100 | 7 h 14 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Davidson -4 over VCU, Friday at 9 PM ET After their 73-62 win @ home vs Davidson back on February 7th, VCU was sitting at 7-3 in the A10 and looking solid. Since that win the Rams have plummeted losing 6 of their last 7 games with their only win during that stretch coming at home vs George Washington. VCU is extremely banged up right now with Marcus Evans (10 PPG, 3 APG) has missed 4 of the last 5 games due to a knee injury and De’Riante Jenkins (10 PPG, 4 RPG) has missed the last 2 games dealing with a personal matter. There is a good chance both sit again tonight. Davidson is back at home, where they are 10-1 on the season, after their toughest road trip of the season. They traveled to Dayton & Richmond, the 2 best teams in the A10, last week and over the weekend and lost both games. The Wildcats are one of the top shooting teams in the nation (#1 three point shooting team in the A10) and at home they are deadly averaging 80 PPG and hitting over 40% of their triples. In their first meeting @ VCU this sharp shooting Davidson team only hit 5 of 19 from beyond the arc (26%) which we feel was an aberration as VCU is not a great team defending the 3 point shot (8th in the conference). Also in that first meeting, the Rams were 19 of 19 from the FT line which was also an outlier as they only hit 67% of their FT’s in conference play (11th in the league). The final stat we’ll bring up from the first meeting was Davidson’s turnover rate. The coughed the ball up a ridiculous 30% of their possessions in that game which is unlike the Cats who average just 16% TO rate on the year ranking them 42nd nationally. We realize that VCU loves to create turnovers but that was still a very high rated for a normally solid ball handling team. Also seeing the Rams pressure once already this season will have Davidson ready for the rematch. Lastly, the 2 players that are most likely out for the Rams (Evans & Jenkins) combined for 34 points in the first win. This is Davidson’s final home game of the season and we mentioned their 10-1 record here this year, they have always been a tough out Belk Arena winning 35 of their last 39 here. VCU is one of the worst spread teams in the nation with a 10-20 ATS record and as an underdog this year they tend to beat the teams they are supposed to beat and lose to the teams they are supposed to lose to. In fact, the Rams have been an underdog 7 times this year and they are 0-7 ATS in those games. Going back 3 years VCU is just 8-20 ATS as a dog. With their injuries and Davidson having revenge, we like the Cats to play well and cover this one. |
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03-05-20 | Wichita State v. Memphis -2 | Top | 60-68 | Win | 100 | 6 h 14 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Memphis -2 over Wichita State, Thursday at 9 PM ET on ESPN Big game for both teams has Wichita sits in the tourney as a low seed by most while Memphis is currently out. However, the Tigers have a chance to make a move at home here playing Wichita tonight and Houston over the weekend. Winning both would probably get them in. Just a huge home stand for Memphis. Wichita is coming off a big win @ SMU but how that went down is key here. The Shockers trailed 50-26 with 13:00 minutes remaining in the game and WON the game 66-62 thus outscoring the Mustangs 40-12 from that point on. Obviously A LOT had to go WSU’s way for them to make that comeback and they expended plenty of physical and mental energy in doing so. In fact, between the 13:00 minute mark and 9:00 minute mark – so 4 minutes of game time – the Shockers made 5 three pointers & a layup while holding SMU scoreless to cut the 24 point lead to 7 in a hurry. That simply almost never happens. Especially from a team that isn’t a good shooting team to being with which Wichita is not. Now going on the road again after that effort we think they’re in trouble tonight. Memphis has won 3 of their last 4 games (including a win here over Houston, the best team in the AAC) to move back close to the NCAA bubble. The Tigers are great defensively (5th nationally in defensive efficiency and 1st nationally in defensive eFG%) and we expect them to really slow down this Wichita team that went crazy in the 2nd half on Sunday. As we mentioned, the Shockers are not a good shooting team ranking dead last in the AAC in eFG% and 8th in 3-point %. They made 14 three pointers on Sunday in their comeback win which is an absolute outlier. To put that in perfective, in their previous 15 conference games Wichita averaged 7 three pointers made per game and only topped 10 one other time. Now, on the road again where they shoot 28% from 3, they are facing a Memphis defense that ranks 5th nationally at defending the arc. Wichita has struggled on the road vs the top tier teams in the AAC losing @ Houston, @ Cincy, and @ Tulsa and we think they have problems here, especially offensively where they average just 64 PPG on the road. The Shockers got the home win 76-67 earlier this year but Memphis minus this small number is the play this time around. |
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03-04-20 | Kansas State v. Oklahoma State -6 | Top | 63-69 | Push | 0 | 5 h 2 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Oklahoma State -6 over Kansas State, Wednesday at 9 PM ET We are now in the final week of the regular season and motivation becomes extremely important when handicapping games. In next week’s conference tournaments everyone should be properly motivated as the dangling carrot which is the NCAA tourney is then open to everyone. Win your conference tourney and you’re in. That’s not the case this week. In this game we feel we have a prime spot to go against a team that should be flat (Kansas State) while backing a team that should be motivated (Oklahoma State). KSU gave a huge home effort on Saturday facing archrival Kansas but came up just short 62-58. It was a revenge game for the Wildcats after their earlier meeting with the Jayhawks in Lawrence ended in a blowout and a brawl as time expired. Watching this KSU team on Saturday, we could tell they put everything they had into that game. We can’t imagine them playing well on the road in this game after that effort. With the loss the Cats are 2-14 in the Big 12 and guaranteed a last place finish sitting 3 games behind the next worst team with 2 left to play. They have absolutely nothing to play for here. They have now lost 9 consecutive games and they are 0-9 SU on the road in conference play. They do have one final home game this weekend vs Iowa State and if there is a game they will play with some passion, that will be it, not this game. Oklahoma State, on the other hand, is trending upward. The Cowboys began the conference season with 8 straight losses but have since gone 5-3 over their last 8 games with their 3 losses coming vs Kansas, Baylor, and West Virginia all on the road (3 highest rated teams in the Big 12). This is their home finale so OSU has plenty to play for with 4 seniors in their 7 man main rotation. They are coming off a 12 point home win vs Iowa State so OSU is playing their 2nd consecutive home game. Their last 3 home games they beat ISU by 12, Oklahoma by 17 (battling for a tourney bid), and Texas Tech by 3 (in 3rd place in the Big 12). OSU(+2.5) beat Kansas State on the road a few weeks ago 64-59 and we see no reason, based on this situation, they don’t win big here. |
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03-03-20 | Arkansas-Little Rock v. Georgia State -3 | Top | 70-89 | Win | 100 | 8 h 36 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Georgia State -3 over Arkansas Little Rock, Tuesday at 7 PM ET This one sets up perfectly for Georgia State to get a home win on Senior Night. The Panthers are coming in off 3 straight losses giving us some value here. Two of those losses were on the road and were expected as they were underdogs @ Texas State (#1 power rated team in the Sun Belt) and @ UT Arlington. Their 3rd loss was at home last Friday when arch rival Georgia Southern +5.5 took the Panthers down at home. We were on Southern in that game and felt it was a great spot for them to pull the upset and they did. This is a totally different situation with Ga State for tonight’s game. They are still 11-8 in Sun Belt action and battling for conference tourney seeding. They can finish anywhere from 3rd to 5th depending on their outcome along with the results of other games in conference play. One thing we know for sure, Little Rock has clinched the Sun Belt regular season crown and will be the #1 seed. They beat Louisiana at home on Saturday to assure that #11 seed. Tonight they have nothing to play for. The Trojans overachieved this season to get to this spot with a very young team (4 underclassmen in starting line up) as they were picked to finish near the bottom of the Sun Belt by most experts. This is a program that is not used to being in this spot as they were 10-21 last season and 17-46 over the last 2 seasons. Give them credit for getting to this point but we absolutely think they have a letdown here. Georgia State, on the other hand, is a program that is used to winning as they finished a top the Sun Belt each of the previous 2 seasons and they finished with 24 or more wins in 5 of their last 6 seasons. They have a conference record of 89-42 since joining the Sun Belt in 2013. Getting them off 3 losses including their most recent one at home, where they have still won 25 of their last 28 games, is ideal in our opinion. Both teams are solid offensively but GSU has the definite edge on defense. They rank higher overall and in conference play in defensive efficiency, defensive eFG%, and defensive 3-point%. The Panthers average 83 PPG at home this year while UALR averages just 68 PPG on the road and they have lost 2 of their last 3 road games. Last year in this match up GSU was a 9 point favorite at home and won by 13 in their home finale. This year they are laying only 3 points and the situation heavily favors the Panthers. We like Georgia State here. |
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03-01-20 | Virginia Tech v. Louisville -12 | Top | 52-68 | Win | 100 | 21 h 44 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Louisville -12 over Virginia Tech, Sunday at 6 PM ET This is a great spot to play on Louisville and also a perfect set up to fade Va Tech. The Cards are off an 82-67 loss @ FSU on Monday in a game they led by 8 at half. The Cardinals however collapsed in the second half getting outscored 50-27 including a 15-0 run by the Noles. The 50 points allowed in the 2nd half was the most Louisville has allowed in a half the entire season and you can bet this team, who is one of the better defensive teams in the nation, will play with a purpose on that end of the court on Sunday in their home finale vs Virginia Tech. Let’s remember that U of L ranks 37th nationally in defensive efficiency allowing just 0.92 PPP and 18th in eFG% defense. The Cards were in a similar situation just a few weeks ago getting embarrassed by 15 points @ Clemson and then coming home and laying one on Syracuse 90-66. A much better Syracuse team than the Va Tech team they are playing today. The Hokies are coming off a huge rivalry game at home vs Virginia. It was a game they were anticipating after getting waxed by 26 points @ UVA earlier this year. Their game on Wednesday went to the wire with the Cavs getting the road win 56-53. VT was down 26-11 at half in that game (yes you read that correctly) and made a valiant comeback actually taking the lead with 3:00 minutes remaining before losing by 3. That game took a lot out of Tech both physically and mentally and now they go on the road to play one of the best team’s in the nation off a loss. They are just 2-5 in ACC road games with 4 of those 5 losses coming by double digits. Their most recent road game was @ Duke and Va Tech lost that game by 24 as 15.5 point underdogs. We actually think we’re getting value with Louisville laying only 12 in this situation. They are every bit as good as Duke (Cards beat Duke on the road in their only meeting) yet laying 3.5 points less than the Devils did just a week ago. The Hokies started the ACC season with a 5-3 record but have been heading downhill since losing 8 of their last 9. They are a poor shooting team ranking 13th in the ACC in offensive efficiency and 252nd nationally making only 42% of their shots. It gets even worst for them on the road where they make just 39% of their shot attempts and scoring only 61 PPG. That’s going to be an issue vs a Louisville defense that will be motivated and an offense that has average 82 PPG their last 5 home games. The top 4 teams in the ACC are Duke, Louisville, FSU, and Virginia and the Hokies are 0-5 in games vs those teams losing by an average score of 73-56 and that includes 3 home games vs UVA, FSU, and Duke. In their only 2 road games vs those opponents they lost by 24 @ Duke and by 26 @ UVA. Louisville might be without starting center Malik Williams here (foot injury) but they are one of the deeper teams in the nation and in their home finale we still expect them to win this one BIG. Lay it with Louisville. |
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02-29-20 | Duke v. Virginia +4 | Top | 50-52 | Win | 100 | 19 h 21 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Virginia +4 over Duke, Saturday at 6 PM ET Don’t look now but last year’s National Champions are hitting their stride. Back in mid January with UVA sitting at 4-4 in the ACC and 12-6 overall, there was talk that the defending champs might not even make the tourney this season. That talk is now out the window with the Cavs winning 8 of their last 9 games with their only loss during that stretch coming @ Louisville in a game they led with 3:00 minutes remaining. They are now 20-7 overall and 12-5 in the ACC. Defensively they are fantastic as usual ranking #1 in the ACC in defensive efficiency, points allowed, defensive eFG%, 2-point %, and 3-point %. They play at a very slow pace which we feel will frustrate this young Duke team (3 freshmen in the starting line up) that loves to play fast. The Blue Devils are vastly overrated in our opinion. They are 13-4 in a down ACC but they have not been very good on the road. Duke is just 3-3 their last 6 road games including a 113-101 double OT loss on Tuesday @ Wake Forest who is 5-12 in conference play. They have also played the easiest schedule thus far in ACC play. Of the top 3 team in the league (besides themselves) they have faced 2 of them (Louisville & FSU) both at home beating the Seminoles by 5 and losing to Louisville by 6. The other team in the top 4 is Virginia so this sets up to be Duke’s toughest road game of the season thus far. The Devils have covered only 1 of their last 7 as a road favorite while UVA has been a dog just 8 times in the last 3 season going 6-2 ATS in those games. Virginia has won 43 of their last 48 home games SU and we like them to win this one as well. If they don’t we anticipate the game being very close so take the points. |
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02-29-20 | Loyola-Chicago v. Bradley -3 | Top | 67-66 | Loss | -108 | 15 h 20 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Bradley -3 over Loyola Chicago, Saturday at 2 PM ET Love this spot for the Braves in their home finale. With 3 seniors in the starting line up this home game will be extra special. On top of that, a win here moves the Braves into a tie for 2nd place in the MVC with Loyola, their opponent on Saturday. Bradley is 15-1 this year at home with their only loss coming at the hands of Northern Iowa who sits in 1st place in the conference. Going back further, this team has simply been fantastic here at Carver Arena winning 40 of their last 49 games here. If you throw out their home loss to UNI, the Braves have won their other 7 conference home games by an average margin of +10.8 points. They average 76 PPG at home while shooting 48%. They are also one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the nation hitting nearly 37% which ranks them 33rd out of 351 teams. That should be a solid match for them at home vs a Loyola defense that ranks 318th nationally at defending the arc allowing 37%. Over their last 10 games, the Ramblers have allowed 87 three pointers (nearly 9 per game) on 212 attempts for 41% which is obviously not good. While Loyola is 12-5 in conference play, one game ahead of Bradley, they are just 3-5 SU on the road with their wins coming @ Evansville (0-17 in conference play), @ Illinois State (4-13 in MVC play), and @ Valpo (9-8 on conference games). The Ramblers struggle offensively on the road averaging just 62 PPG which won’t do it here vs a team that thrives offensively at home as we discussed earlier. When these two met on February 1st @ Loyola the Ramblers won 62-51 as 5.5 point favorites. The Braves actually shot a higher percentage overall and from 3 point land, however Loyola won the game at the FT line where they attempted 30 FT’s to just 5 for Bradley. It was shocking the game was as close as it was with that discrepancy at the stripe. We don’t see that happening on Saturday and even if all else remains the same, Bradley will get the win. |
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02-28-20 | Georgia Southern +5 v. Georgia State | Top | 79-70 | Win | 100 | 5 h 15 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Georgia Southern +5 over Georgia State, Friday at 7 PM ET In their first meeting this season Georgia Southern held a 14-point lead with 12:00 minutes remaining and blew it with Georgia State winning 82-77 which was State’s largest lead of the game. From that 12:00 minute mark on, the Eagles were only able to score a grand total of 12 points in that loss. We feel these teams are now headed in opposite directions and we give Southern a great shot to win this game. State has lost 4 of their last 7 games and two of their wins game vs LA Monroe (last place team) and Coastal Carolina who has lost 8 of their last 11. Georgia Southern is 5-3 since their loss to Ga State and they have been successful on the road winning 3 of their last 4 and they are 5-4 SU overall on the road in Sun Belt play. Both these teams are 11-7 in league play so this is a battle for seeding in the conference tourney. The Panthers come in off back to back losses and might be without starting guard Phillips who is their best 3-point shooter hitting 43%. He missed the last 2 games due to injury. Speaking of shooting 3’s, Georgia State relies heavily on scoring from the arc with 35% of their points coming from deep so if Phillips is unable to play that will really hurt this team. Tonight they face an Eagle defense that ranks #1 in the Sun Belt at defending the arc allowing 27% and Southern is also the most efficient defense in the league allowing just 0.96 points per possession. This rivalry has been a closely contested series with 8 of the last 11 being decided by 6 points or less. This line opened Georgia State -5.5 and despite 70% of the tickets coming in on the home team, the line has dropped to -5 at many places. We agree with the move and expect this game to be very close whoever wins. |
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02-27-20 | South Dakota State v. North Dakota State -4 | Top | 69-71 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON North Dakota State -4 over South Dakota State, Thursday at 9 PM ET As you already know, we went against this NDSU team last week for a big play in what we thought was a great spot to fade them. You know the details of that one so we won’t get into that. However, after beating South Dakota last week, they went on the road to play one of the lower tier teams in the Summit League, North Dakota, and lost. Now we feel coming off that loss, playing at home with the conference title on the line, this is a very good spot to jump on North Dakota State. The Bison sit one spot below tonight’s opponent South Dakota State who is in first place. If the Bison can win here and then beat Omaha at home on Saturday they will tie for first place in the Summit. NDSU is a perfect 6-0 at home this year in conference play and not only do they have revenge set up for a tight game they lost @ South Dakota State earlier this year, they also remember what happened here last year. In their game here last year NDSU blew a 17 point second half lead and South Dakota State hit a half court shot at the buzzer to win 78-77. In their first match up this year @ SDSU, the Jackrabbits shot 56% from the field and they were +10 FT’s made and the game still went to the wire with them winning 78-73. Now we get the Bison at home where they average 81 PPG and shoot 49% in a game they’ve been waiting for. On top of that, Jackrabbits leading scorer Douglas Wilson (19 PPG) was lifted from their game over the weekend due to a foot injury. He had problems with that same foot entering the game and was limping late when his foot was landed on and he had to come out of the game. His status is up in the air for Thursday. South Dakota State has already clinched at least a share of the league title and their 2 conference losses both came on the road @ South Dakota and @ Omaha, 2 of the top 5 teams in the league. Now they face their toughest opponent on the road in a less than ideal spot. If NDSU can get a lead and they need to hold it or extend it late, we get the best FT shooting team in the conference as they hit 81% of their freebies in league play. Great spot here for North Dakota State and we’ll take them to win and cover. |
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02-27-20 | Wisconsin v. Michigan -6 | Top | 81-74 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Michigan -6 over Wisconsin, Thursday at 7 PM ET The Wolverines are playing as well as anyone in the Big 10 right now and possibly as well as anyone in the country. They have won 7 of their last 8 games and in the Ken Pom power rankings Michigan has risen from #30 at the beginning of February all the way to #9 going into tonight’s game. That’s the largest upward move of any team in the nation over the last month. Much of that improvement has been the return of leading scorer Isaiah Livers (14 PPG). The Wolverines are 12-3 when Livers has been healthy and played at least half the game and they are 6-6 without him. Livers missed 9 games since December 29th due to injury but his last 4 games back Michigan is 4-0 winning each by at least 8 points. Livers is averaging 15.5 PPG during that stretch and for the season he is hitting nearly 45% of his 3-point attempts. During their 5 game winning streak Michigan has knocked off Michigan State by 9, won @ Rutgers by 8 giving the Knights their first home loss of the season, beat a resurgent Indiana team by 24 at home, and topped Purdue on the road by 8 in a game the Boilers had to have. Impressive run to say the least. During that 5 game run Michigan is outscoring opponents 75-60 and their defense has been lock down holding opponents to 37% shooting and just 23% from deep. Wisconsin is also on a nice 4 game winning streak but the 2 runs are not comparable. The Badgers have played 3 of their last 4 games at home and their lone road game during this stretch was @ Nebraska, the worst team in the Big 10. Prior to their road win @ Nebraska, the Badgers had lost 4 straight road games @ Purdue, @ Michigan State, @ Iowa, and @ Minnesota with all but one of those losses (lost by 6 @ Iowa) coming by at least 12 points. The last 2 games, both at home, the Badgers were leading fairly tight games ate vs Purdue and Rutgers and converted their FT’s with the opposition fouling late. UW was +16 and +11 FT’s made in those games which they won by 4 and 8 points. We don’t see that happening here as we don’t see them leading late and they are facing a Michigan team that doesn’t foul very much. Wisconsin’s offense relies too heavily on the 3 for us to trust them on the road vs solid competition. 40% of their points in conference play come from deep which is #1 in the league. The problem is they only shoot 31% from the arc on the road and they are facing a Michigan defense that ranks 3rd in the conference at defending the arc and has really stepped up their defense as of late as we mentioned. Minus their road win @ Nebraska (who is the worst defensive team in the conference) the Badgers have averaged just 55 PPG their previous 4 road games. Facing a Michigan offense that has topped 70 in 4 of their last 5 games including vs MSU (13th ranked in defensive efficiency) and Purdue (22nd ranked in defensive efficiency). That all means Wisconsin could be in trouble here. We like the Wolverines to win this game by double digits. |
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02-26-20 | Utah v. Stanford +7.5 | Top | 62-70 | Win | 100 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Stanford -7.5 over Utah, Thursday at 10 PM ET Utah has one of the youngest teams in the nation with 3 sophomores and 2 freshmen in the starting line up. They also bring 2 more freshmen off the bench as part of their top 8. Because of that, they have really been poor on the road this year many playing in venues they’ve never seen before. The Utes are 0-7 SU (1-6 ATS) on the road in Pac 12 play with their losses coming by margins of 4, 16, 16, 18, 19, 19, and 39 points. As you can see only one competitive game in the entire bunch. They are averaging just 61 PPG on the road and have been held under 60 points in 5 road games this season. The Utes have made only 38% of their shots away from home and just 28% from 3 point land. That’s going to be a massive problem tonight as they face a Stanford defense that ranks 5th nationally in defensive efficiency holding opponents to only 60 PPG at home. This is also a game the Cardinal have been waiting for after leading @ Utah with 12 seconds remaining in regulation but losing in double OT. Stanford averaged a putrid 0.77 points per possession in that game (their lowest of the season) and still had a shot at a road win. The host is 7-1-1 ATS the last 8 in this series and it looks to us like Utah’s freshmen (4 in the top 8) are hitting a wall late in the season losing 3 of their last 4 games. With their road struggles already in place we see Stanford winning this one by double digits. |
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02-25-20 | Texas Tech v. Oklahoma +2.5 | Top | 51-65 | Win | 100 | 7 h 5 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Oklahoma +2.5 over Texas Tech, Tuesday at 9 PM ET This is simply a must win for Oklahoma’s NCAA tourney hopes. Right now the Sooners are sitting barely in the tourney or barely out of the tourney depending on which bracket expert you follow. After losing 3 straight games, they can’t afford a loss here with 2 of their last 3 games on the road. This game isn’t a true home game for them as it will be played in Oklahoma City although the crowd will be all OU. They’ve also played at this venue once already this season beating Mississippi State in late January. Oklahoma is coming off 3 straight losses and because of that we’re getting some value in this game. Let’s keep in mind their 3 losses weren’t necessarily unexpected as they were beaten @ Kansas, lost at home to Baylor, and then lost over the weekend @ Oklahoma State. The first two setbacks were absolutely expected as they were facing to 2 best teams in the Big 12 and 2 top 5 nationally ranked teams. We weren’t surprised they lost @ arch rival OSU over the weekend as those first 2 games took a lot out of this team while the Cowboys were playing their Super Bowl, so to speak, at home. We expect a huge performance after getting embarrassed on Saturday. The Sooners have lost only 2 home games (including games at OKC) this year and those were vs Kansas & Baylor. Now they face a young Texas Tech team (3 freshman in their top 7 players) that is coming off a 30-point blowout win @ Iowa State. The Red Raiders come in fat and happy so to speak while OU Is backed into a corner. These two met just on February 4th and Tech was an 8.5 point favorite at home. That tells us this line should be pick-em or OU favored by 1 so the value is there. In that first meeting Texas Tech won 69-61 and while the Sooners attempted 10 more FG’s, the Raiders shot lights out hitting over 50% for the game and from beyond the arc. Despite the red hot shooting from Tech, OU led at half and trailed by just 3 with 1:00 minute remaining in the game. Now they get the Red Raiders away from home where they are just 3-4 SU in conference play. We like OU to get this much needed win tonight. |
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