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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-15-18 | Cincinnati v. Houston +3 | Top | 62-67 | Win | 100 | 4 h 9 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Houston +3 over Cincinnati, Thursday at 7:00 PM ET on CBS Sports Network Most will look at this low number and side with the team that is ranked #5 in the nation, 12-0 in the AAC, and on a 16 game winning streak. That team would be Cincinnati. Not surprising that as of this writing we’re seeing about 70% of the bets in Vegas & offshore on the Bearcats. Looks too obvious to most to side with Cincy. Not us. We like Houston in this game. This is an absolute HUGE home game for the Cougs who are 19-5 overall and 9-3 in the ACC tied for 2nd place with Wichita State. As of now, Houston is a bubble team with most experts having them in the tourney at a 9 or 10 seed. A win here might just guarantee them a spot in the Big Dance and they know it. The Cougars are a perfect 12-0 at home winning by an average of 21 PPG. And while they’ve played some lightweights here as every team in the AAC does, they’ve also destroyed some very good teams including Arkansas (by 26) and Wichita State (by 14). These two met in Cincinnati earlier this season and Houston gave the Bearcats the best game they’ve had all year at home losing 80-70. The Cougars actually led by 18 in the first half and the game was tied with under 10:00 minutes remaining. The Bearcats shot better (48% to 42%) and were +14 at the FT line and even with that it was a tight game down the stretch. The Bearcats are on the road for their second straight game after winning @ SMU on Sunday (Mustangs were without 2 starters including their top player Shake Milton). Cincinnati also has a huge game on Saturday at home vs Wichita State. The Bearcats also have a 3 game lead in the AAC so this one is not nearly as important to them as it is to Houston. This is the highest ranked opponent Houston has played host to since 2009 and they are ready for this one. Houston wins outright but just in case we have a 3 point cushion to work with. Take Houston and the points in this game. |
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02-14-18 | Nevada v. Boise State -2.5 | Top | 77-72 | Loss | -104 | 9 h 36 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Boise State -2.5 over Nevada, Wednesday at 11 PM ET on ESPNU The two best teams in the MWC face off tonight with Nevada (10-2) sitting one game in the loss column ahead of Boise (10-3). These two met in Nevada on January 20th and the game went to the wire with the Wolfpack winning by 6. Nevada’s largest lead of the game was just 7 so Boise was right there the whole way. That was despite making only 3 of their 21 three point attempts (14%). If the Broncos, who are one of the top 3-point shooting teams in the nation (37th), shoot that poorly from deep on the road and still almost win, we feel they can definitely pull it off here at Taco Bell Arena. Speaking of their home court, the Broncos are 13-0 at home this year and have one of the top home court winning 46 of their last 50 games here. Boise has won their 13 home games this year by an average of 18 PPG while shooting 51%. Nevada has been good on the road but let’s remember they were expected to win the vast majority of their road games to this point. They’ve been favored in every road game but two this year and they lost both of those games SU & ATS. Their top player, Caleb Martin, is also not at 100%. He has a foot problem that kept him out of a game last week which ended in a home loss to UNLV. Martin came back this weekend in Nevada’s home win over San Diego State, however he’s been in a walking boot this week. Martin scored 28 points in their first meeting with Boise so he’s obviously a big key to Nevada’s success. We like Boise to pick up a home win tonight. |
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02-13-18 | Northwestern v. Rutgers UNDER 125 | Top | 58-67 | Push | 0 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 125 Points - Northwestern @ Rutgers, Tuesday at 9:00 PM ET While this low total may bait some into taking shot with the OVER, not us. This is going to be a low scoring game. Bad offense is the key to this one. These two teams are the lowest scoring teams in the Big Ten. Rutgers averages only 57 PPG while Northwestern scores only 63 PPG. They are also the 2 worst shooting teams in the Big Ten with Rutgers hitting just 36% of their shots and NW making only 40% (conference games). On top of being 2 poor offensive teams, these are 2 of the slowest paced teams in the nation so possessions will be limited. Rutgers has been held to 60 points or less in 9 of their 14 Big Ten games. Eight of their fourteen league games have failed to top 124 total points. In their last 7 games (all losses) 5 have totaled 122 points or less. The Cats have scored 65 or less in more than half of their Big Ten games and over the last 4 they’ve put up 61, 60, 57, and 47 points. The team that most compares to these two teams in the Big Ten is Wisconsin as far as offensive output, shooting percentage, and pace. Each of these teams have played the Badgers so looking at those scores should give us a gauge of what to expect tonight. NW and Wisconsin put up just 112 points while Rutgers and Wisconsin totaled 124 points. The Wisconsin – Rutgers game was on pace to score well below the 124 the two teams put up 40 points in the final 10:00 minutes of the game. That was after averaging only 28 points in each of the first three 10:00 minute intervals. Northwestern and Rutgers have combined to play 53 games this year and only 14 have gone over the total. Our numbers say this will be a low scoring, slow paced grinder that stays UNDER the total. |
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02-12-18 | Notre Dame +11 v. North Carolina | Top | 66-83 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 3 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Notre Dame +11 over North Carolina, Monday at 7:00 PM ET This game is MUCH more important for Notre Dame and the situational spot heavily favors the Irish. Notre Dame comes into this game firmly on the NCAA bubble with a 15-10 record and a win here would really boost their resume. The Irish went through a lull from mid January into early February losing 7 straight games. They played without their starting point guard and top player, Matt Farrell, in four of those games. Now that Farrell is back and at 100%, Notre Dame has been playing much better winning 2 straight games by double digits over BC and Florida State. The take some much needed confidence into this revenge match up with UNC. In their first meeting the Heels came away with a tight 69-68 win. The Heels hit two FT’s with 7 seconds remaining for the win and ended the game on a 9-2 run. Notre Dame was held without a field goal for the final 6:00 minutes, played without Farrell, and still almost won the game. ND will be ready here and we expect a top effort. We can’t guarantee that with UNC. That’s because the Heels are coming off two HUGE games beating Duke here on Thursday and then getting revenge on Saturday by topping NC State on the road. Not only is UNC off two huge, emotional wins, this will be their 3rd game in 5 days. Not ideal for a team that plays 6 players for the most part. All 5 starters have logged 29+ minutes in each of the last 2 games and only one other player put up double digit minutes in each game. UNC already has 2 home losses this year (Wofford & NC State) and 3 of their 6 ACC home wins have come by 8 points or less. We’ll call for a tight game with Notre Dame getting the cover. |
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02-10-18 | Loyola-Chicago -4.5 v. Indiana State | 75-71 | Loss | -106 | 18 h 28 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 8* Loyola Chicago -4.5 over Indiana State, Saturday 2:00 PM ET The Tigers are playing as well as they have all season. In their last 3 games they beat Alabama on the road by 9 to give the Tide their only SEC loss at home, topped Kentucky by 9 at home, and won @ Ole Miss earlier this week. Right before their run of 3 straight wins, Mizzou traveled to Mississippi State and lost by 12. Now they get a chance at revenge just two weeks after that loss. In that game a poor shooting Bulldog team (10th in the SEC in eFG%) hit 55% of their shots in that win, which was Mizzou’s worst defensive performance of the SEC season. Don’t expect a repeat here as the Tigers have been very good defensively (2nd in the SEC in eFG% defense – league games) and they have been lights out on that end of the court since their loss to MSU allowing just 35% to their last 3 opponents combined (64 shots made out of 180 attempts). On top of that, the Bulldogs are a terrible shooting team on the road making only 38% of their shots which is one reason they are only 1-5 in road games this season. Missouri is 10-2 at home this year outscoring their opponents by +13 points. They are hitting over 50% of their shots at Mizzou Arena while allowing just 38%. The favorite in this series has covered of the last 9 and we have a feeling Missouri rolls to an easy win in this spot. |
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02-10-18 | Oklahoma v. Iowa State +4.5 | 80-88 | Win | 100 | 18 h 27 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 8* Iowa State +4.5 over Oklahoma, Saturday at 2:00 PM ET Oklahoma has one of the largest home/road dichotomies in the nation. This is a young team (299th nationally in experience) that simply struggles on the road. The Sooners have now lost 5 straight road games and their only win away from home in Big 12 play came by 1 point in OT. Oklahoma looks like they have hit a wall winning only 2 of their last 7 games with those wins (by 2 and 5 points) coming down to the wire as well. They are off a demoralizing home loss at the hands of WVU, a game in which they came from 11 down in the 2nd half and missed a shot at the buzzer to tie. Speaking of home/road dichotomy, ISU’s numbers are fairly drastic as well. The Cyclones are just 3-8 in Big 12 play, however their 3 wins have all come at home over Baylor, Texas Tech, and West Virginia all by double digits (the latter two are currently in 1st and 3rd place in the conference respectively). The Cyclones are also have back to back road blowouts losing @ Baylor & @ Texas Tech (both revenge games for their opponents) so they are happy to be back at home and we expect a top notch effort. Oklahoma is just 1-4 ATS as a road favorite this year and they’ve lost 6 straight years @ ISU. We give the Cyclones a great shot at the upset here. Take the points. |
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02-10-18 | Mississippi State v. Missouri -5.5 | Top | 85-89 | Loss | -106 | 18 h 29 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Missouri -5.5 over Mississippi State, Saturday at 2:00 PM ET The Tigers are playing as well as they have all season. In their last 3 games they beat Alabama on the road by 9 to give the Tide their only SEC loss at home, topped Kentucky by 9 at home, and won @ Ole Miss earlier this week. Right before their run of 3 straight wins, Mizzou traveled to Mississippi State and lost by 12. Now they get a chance at revenge just two weeks after that loss. In that game a poor shooting Bulldog team (10th in the SEC in eFG%) hit 55% of their shots in that win, which was Mizzou’s worst defensive performance of the SEC season. Don’t expect a repeat here as the Tigers have been very good defensively (2nd in the SEC in eFG% defense – league games) and they have been lights out on that end of the court since their loss to MSU allowing just 35% to their last 3 opponents combined (64 shots made out of 180 attempts). On top of that, the Bulldogs are a terrible shooting team on the road making only 38% of their shots which is one reason they are only 1-5 in road games this season. Missouri is 10-2 at home this year outscoring their opponents by +13 points. They are hitting over 50% of their shots at Mizzou Arena while allowing just 38%. The favorite in this series has covered of the last 9 and we have a feeling Missouri rolls to an easy win in this spot. |
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02-08-18 | Towson v. Drexel OVER 147.5 | 94-92 | Win | 100 | 3 h 46 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON: #515/516 OVER 147.5 Towson @ Drexel, 7PM ET - This game has the makings of a shootout and our Math Model suggests over 154 total points in this contest. Towson is the 3rd most efficient offense in the Colonial Conference at 1.136 points per possession and they'll have an easy time scoring against a Drexel defense that is last in the league in DEFF allowing 1.160PPP. The Tigers have most recently played Delaware and James Madison and combined with those opponents for 146 and 152 total points. The comparison here is that Delaware and James Madison are two of the slowest paced teams in conference play while Drexel is the 2nd fastest. That means more opportunities for a Towson offense that has an EFG% offense of 53.4% (113th in nation). Drexel is on a hot streak right now with 4 straight wins and have done it with an offense that is shooting 48% their last five games and averaging 78PPG. The Dragons should score here against a Towson defense that has been great overall for the season, but has slipped in their last five games by allowing 78PPG n 46% shooting by opponents. Drexel has played Over in 3 of their last four games, Towson Over in 11 of their last twelve. Earlier this season these two teams combined for 158 total points. The bet here is OVER! |
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02-08-18 | Georgia Tech v. Louisville -8.5 | 54-77 | Win | 100 | 3 h 45 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON: #526 Louisville -8.5 over Georgia Tech, 7:00 PM ET on ESPN2 - One of our handicapping strategies is looking for good teams coming off losses. The thought is they aren’t used to losing and will be extra motivated coming off a loss. It, of course, is not as simple as taking those games all the time as there are other factors we must look at. That being said, we really like Louisville in this spot at home as they are coming of 3 straight losses. The Cards lost @ Virginia, and then back to back home games vs Florida State & Syracuse. At 16-8 overall and 6-5 in the ACC, this now becomes a HUGE game for Louisville as 4 of their final 6 games after this one are on the road and their 2 home games are vs UNC and Virginia. They get a chance here to take out their frustrations on one of the worst teams in the ACC. Georgia Tech is just 2-9 in ACC play and they are a very poor road team with a 1-6 record this year with all but one of their road losses coming by at least 8 points. The only one that wasn’t by that margin or higher was a 3 point loss @ Wofford. Their only road win was @ Pitt, by far the worst team in the ACC this season. The Jackets will be a bit demoralized here as they are on the road for their 2nd straight game after losing in OT by 8 points @ Boston College on Sunday. While it looks like Tech played a very good road game, the problem is they shot 51% and still lost @ BC. The Jackets are a poor shooting team (12th in the ACC in eFG% and 296th nationally in that category) but shot well due to the fact they faced a Boston College team that ranks dead last in the league in defensive efficiency. To shoot that well and still lose by 8 is not a good sign for Tech. Now they face a Louisville defense that is 24th nationally in defensive efficiency and 11th nationally in eFG% defense. Tech is also very poor at protecting the ball (13th in the ACC on turnover percentage) while the Cards thrive on creating turnovers which add extra offensive possessions. This is a bad match up for the Yellow Jackets and they’re facing a very good team that will be extra motivated. These two met once last year and Louisville won by 15 on the road. Expect a similar outcome here as the Cards win big at home. |
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02-07-18 | Ohio State v. Purdue -10 | 64-63 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 8 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 8* Purdue -10 over Ohio State, Wednesday at 8:30 PM ET Purdue comes in with a perfect 12-0 mark in the Big 10 while OSU sits in 2nd place at 11-1. For 2 teams in such a tight race, you’d expect the line to be a bit tighter in this game. There is a reason it isn’t and that is that Purdue is the much better team. OSU has played the EASIEST schedule in the Big 10 (league games) and thus far their road games in conference play have come against Wisconsin, Rutgers, Iowa, and Northwestern. In other words, the Buckeyes have not played a road game against any of the Big Ten’s top 6 teams. OSU has feasted on teams they should beat while their record vs teams in the top 30 this season (Ken Pom ratings) is just 2-4. They haven’t been involved in a true road games since mid January and are coming off a 4 game home stand. The Buckeyes were 3-1 during that home stand losing to Penn State, beating Indiana by double digits, and struggling with close wins over Nebraska and Illinois. They aren’t playing great basketball right now and going on the road to Purdue is not a good remedy. They will also be without starting guard Kam Williams for the 2nd straight game as he is suspended and will most likely not even make the trip. The Boilers are 14-0 at home (23-2 overall) winning by an average score of 87-60 at Mackey Arena. They’ve won 21 straight home games and the Boilers are 23-9-1 ATS their last 33 home games. OSU takes a huge step up in competition here and we think Purdue picks up a double digit win. |
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02-07-18 | Kansas State +5 v. Texas | 67-64 | Win | 100 | 4 h 30 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 8* Kansas State +5 over Texas, Wednesday at 8:00 PM ET We were on Texas on Saturday in their huge rivalry game with Oklahoma. The Horns trailed for the most of the first half and were down 5 at halftime. They battled back for a tough 79-74 win and we expect a letdown here from the Horns. Adding to the lackadaisical factor will be the fact they are facing a KSU team that was destroyed in their most recent outing @ WVU. The Texas players saw that and you can’t expect them to be on the top of their game with those 2 factors in play. However, do not discount this KSU team. They will come out with some passion here after getting embarrassed on Saturday. The Cats are also battling for NCAA tourney consideration with a 16-7 record. They have been, for the most part, competitive on the road winning @ Baylor, @ Iowa State and @ Vanderbilt while losing by a point @ Kansas. The Cats also received a big boost in their game @ WVU when guard Kamau Stokes returned after missing 7 straight games. Stokes scored in double digits in 11 of KSU’s first 15 games before his injury. Kansas State has been dangerous on the road (4-3 record) because they can shoot the ball very well (over 47% as a team) and they have 5 regulars hitting 35% or better from beyond the arc. Texas has 2 home losses on the year and we think they are vulnerable here. We’ll take the points and call for this one to go to the wire. |
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02-07-18 | Drake v. Loyola-Chicago -11 | Top | 57-72 | Win | 100 | 4 h 29 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Loyola Chicago -11 over Drake, Wednesday at 8:00 PM ET We’ll stick with the red hot team in Loyola here. We were on the Ramblers as a 5* play over Missouri State on Saturday and they rolled to an easy 97-75 win. That gives them 8 wins in their last 9 games with their only loss during that stretch coming @ Bradley by 2 points. They faced this Drake team in late January on the road and trounced them 80-57 and we see no reason it changes here. Loyola is the best team in the MVC and their stats bear that out as they rank #1 in both offensive and defensive efficiency in league play. The Ramblers are easily the best shooting team in the conference ranking #1 in 2 point FG% and 3 point FG%. At home this teams shoots a ridiculous 56% from the field and 46% from beyond the arc. They should have a field day here, just as they did in the first game when they hit 56% of their shots, vs a Drake defense that simply isn’t very good (254th nationally in eFG% defense). The Bulldog defense has allowed at least 50% from the field in 4 of their last 6 games and they are running into a buzzsaw in this game. The Ramblers sit in 1st place by just one game over Southern Illinois so there will be not letting up for the host here. Drake is coming off a big road win on Saturday @ Bradley but they are just 3-8 away from home this year and this will be their 3rd road game in their last 4. Loyola pulls away in the 2nd half for an easy win. |
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02-06-18 | Missouri v. Ole Miss -1.5 | 75-69 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 22 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 8* Ole Miss -1.5 over Missouri, Tuesday at 9:00 PM ET This line opened with Ole Miss as a 1 point dog and they have moved to a small favorite. Now we have a team that is just 11-12 favored over a Mizzou team that is 15-8? Hmmm… We agree 100% with this move and expect the Rebels to pick up a nice win at home tonight. The Rebs home road dichotomy is one of the most drastic in the SEC. They are 4-1 at home in league play (including wins over Bama & Florida) with their only loss coming at the hands of 1st place Auburn. On the road it’s a different story as this Ole Miss team is 0-7 this year in true road games. They are much better on both ends of the court at home and we catch the Rebels coming off an embarrassing blowout loss @ Tennessee over the weekend. We expect a great effort tonight from this team. They are hosting Mizzou who is coming off a huge home win over Kentucky. Facing a below .500 team off that win could be a trap spot for the Tigers who are 2-3 this year on the road in the SEC. Ole Miss is 4-1 ATS at home vs SEC opponents this year and they’ve covered 9 of their last 12 conference games at home dating back to last year. The Rebels were -11 here vs Missouri last year and now we’re laying only one point just a year later. The value is on Ole Miss here and they’ve controlled this series winning 9 of the last 10 meetings. Take the Rebels at home tonight. |
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02-06-18 | Tennessee v. Kentucky -2 | 61-59 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 23 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 8* Kentucky -2 over Tennessee, Tuesday at 7:00 PM ET While we respect Tennessee and feel they are a solid team, we also feel they are a bit overvalued right now. This team is 7-3 in the SEC but they have played the easiest schedule in conference play. Since starting SEC play with an 0-2 record (losses to Arkansas & Auburn), the Vols have won 8 of their last 9 games. However, besides their two solid wins over this Kentucky team and Texas A&M (both at home) UT has topped Vandy (twice), South Carolina, LSU, Ole Miss (4 of the 5 lowest rated teams in the SEC), and a non-conference win over Iowa State (the lowest rated team in the Big 12). They are 3-2 their last 5 road games, but again, their road wins are vs Vandy, Iowa St, and South Carolina while their two losses came vs teams in the top half of the SEC (Mizzou & Arkansas). Kentucky is young which is pretty much the norm with this program, however they have shown when focused, they are very good. They beat a very good West Virginia team by 7 on the road a week and a half ago and crushed Louisville by 29 points earlier this year. They’ve also had some stinkers but most of those were either coming off a big win (letdown spot) or vs teams that may not have their complete attention. That won’t be the case here. Tennessee sits one spot ahead of UK in the SEC and this is a revenge spot. The Vols topped the Cats one month ago, 76-65 in Knoxville. Kentucky was in control up 8 at half but fell apart in the 2nd half. The stats in that game were almost dead even with the exception of the FT line where the Vols were +8 in FT’s made. Tennessee was favored by 4 in that game so we feel that we’re getting value with the Cats here who should be closer to -4 as well. Another positive in our opinion is that UK is off a loss @ Mizzou over the weekend – Kentucky took 26 more shots (15 offense rebounds) in the game but only hit 31%. Also, Tennessee is off a blowout home win over Ole Miss. Kentucky is 13-1 at home this year with their lone loss coming by 2 points to Florida. The Cats have won 65 of their last 68 home games and with this line sitting as low as it is, an outright win here would most likely be a cover as well. Kentucky has won 10 straight here vs Tennessee and 16 of the last 17. The Cats are fully focused and motivated for this one and they get a home win tonight. |
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02-06-18 | Alabama v. Mississippi State -3 | 63-67 | Win | 100 | 5 h 6 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 8* Mississippi State -3 over Alabama, Tuesday at 7:00 PM ET Bama is a young team (348th out of 351 teams in experience) and they have been up and down all season long. They have a couple of nice road wins @ Florida and @ LSU, but have also lost by double digits @ Ole Miss and @ Georgia along with a loss @ Vandy (3 of the 4 lowest rated teams in the SEC). We catch this young team coming off a huge road win @ Florida on Saturday as 7.5 point underdog. The Tide shot lights out in that game (56%) while the Gators couldn’t hit the broad side of a barn (33% overall and 20% from 3-point range). That seems to be an aberration as they have shot just 42% for the year away from home. We expect those type of numbers here vs a MSU defense that is very good ranking 14th nationally in defensive efficiency. The Bulldogs have been great at home with a 15-1 record and their only loss coming vs first place Auburn. They just hammered Georgia here 72-57 over the weekend and now play their 2nd of back to back home tilts. This is a huge home game for MSU and their NCAA hopes as they are 17-6 overall and 5-5 in the SEC. They play 3 of their next 4 games on the road (they have just 1 true road win this year) so they can’t afford a loss here. These two teams met in January and Bama came away with a 68-62 win. Don’t be surprised if this inexperience Alabama team takes this one for granted because of that, plus off a huge road win, plus they have a massive home game vs Tennessee this weekend. MSU gets another home win tonight. |
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02-06-18 | St. Joe's v. Davidson UNDER 145.5 | 62-91 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 25 m | Show | |
ASA UNDER 145.5 St Joseph's @ Davidson, 7PM ET - We love the spot for an UNDER here is what shapes up to be a lower scoring game. The average total points scored in the A-10 is 141.5PPG so you can see for yourself the value we are getting with tonight's number. The A-10 is the 26th slowest paced conference (out of 32) according to KenPom. Davidson is the slowest paced team in conference play and the 313th in the nation. St Joe's is the fastest paced team in the A-10 but they struggle to score points with an EFG% f 46.9% which is 315th in the country. St Joe's is clearly a horrible shooting team at 315th in 3-point percentage, 292nd in 2-point percentage and they only make 66.7% of their free throws (309th). Defensively the Hawks are above average though with the 99th ranked defensive efficiency rating which is 3rd best in conference action. Davidson has the 2nd best DEFF rating in the A-10 allowing just .961 points per possession. Davidson is the home team here and they'll dictate tempo which will be slow. They have a HUGE game on deck later this week against Rhode Island so you can bet they'll want to conserve energy in this contest. Prior to a game against LaSalle (bad defensively) the Hawks had scored 68 or less points in 4 straight games. Last year when these teams met they combined for just 135 total points. The bet here is UNDER. |
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02-04-18 | Wisconsin v. Maryland -8.5 | Top | 63-68 | Loss | -104 | 16 h 26 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Maryland -8.5 over Wisconsin, Sunday 1:00 PM ET on CBS This is an absolute must win for the Terps. They have now lost 3 straight games and at 15-9 and 4-7 in Big Ten play they are currently out of the Big Dance. A loss here would be devastating to their push to get back to the bubble and inside the Dance. Maryland is much better than their 4-7 conference mark as they’ve played the toughest slate in the Big Ten. They’ve already played both MSU and Purdue twice (the 2 best teams in the league) and they’ve also already faced OSU and Michigan, who are rated 3rd and 4th in the Big Ten. Against the lower tier teams in the Big Ten (rated 85th nationally or lower) Maryland has had their way. The Terps beat Illinois on the road, rolled over both Iowa and Minnesota at home, and their lone loss vs the bottom quarter of the Big Ten was @ Indiana by 3, a game they led by 5 with a few minutes remaining. The Terps are 12-2 at home with their only losses coming by 5 vs Purdue and by 6 vs MSU, a game they led by 14 at half. Wisconsin is obviously way down from previous years coming in with just a 10-13 record overall and 3-8 in the Big Ten. This team is VERY thin right and they are starting to run out of gas. They just finished a 2 game homestand which they felt they had a chance to take both games and instead lost by 11 to Nebraska and by 8 to Northwestern. Now going on the road after that demoralizing home stand will be very tough. Maryland’s offense is very sold scoring 79 PPG at home on 49% shooting. Wisconsin’s offense has very few options and it putting up only 56 PPG on the road. Maryland comes out with their pants on fire in a game they need to win and builds a comfortable lead vs the Badgers just as they did vs Michigan State in their most recent home game. The difference is, Wisconsin doesn’t have the firepower to come back as MSU did. This has the makings of an EASY win for Maryland. |
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02-03-18 | Oklahoma v. Texas -3 | Top | 74-79 | Win | 100 | 7 h 29 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Texas -3 over Oklahoma, Saturday at 6:15 PM ET on ESPN We’ve gone against OU on the road a few times as they are a drastically different team away from home. Last Saturday we took Alabama at home vs the Sooners and picked up an easy win. Oklahoma is now 1-4 on the road in Big 12 play with their only win coming by 1 point in OT. This team shoots just 40% on the road and loses by an average score of 80-85. Shooting will continue to be a problem here as they face a shut down Texas defense that ranks 4th nationally in defensive efficiency. The Sooners are a very young team that looks like they are starting to hit a wall. They are just 3-3 over their last 6 games with their wins coming by 2 points, 5 points, and 5 points in OT (all home wins). One of their key players, Christian James (11 PPG), has been battling the flu and missed most of Thursday’s practice. It looks like James is expected to play but won’t be at 100%. The Longhorns lone Big 12 home loss was at the hands of Kansas (a 4 point loss). Since that loss they have won and covered 4 straight at home. The Horns are coming off a road loss but nearly pulled the upset at Texas Tech earlier this week as they lost in OT but led by 5 with under 2:00 minutes remaining. This is a huge home game for the Horns NCAA resume as they currently sit at 14-8 overall. The host has won 8 of the last 10 in this rivalry and we like Texas to get the win and cover here. |
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02-03-18 | Missouri State v. Loyola-Chicago -7.5 | Top | 75-97 | Win | 100 | 4 h 45 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Loyola Chicago -7.5 over Missouri State, Saturday at 2:00 PM ET #548 ASA PLAY ON Loyola Chicago -7 over Missouri State, Saturday at 2:00 PM ET When at full strength, which they are right now, Loyola is the best team in the Missouri Valley in our opinion. Their top player, Clayton Custer (an Iowa State transfer), missed 5 games in late December/early January and the Ramblers lost 3 of those 5. They were also missing another key starter, Ben Richardson, who also returned around the same time as Custer. Since those two have come back they’ve rolled up 7 wins in their last 8 games. Their only loss during that stretch was on Wednesday @ Bradley where Loyola lost by 2 points. Now back at home off a loss we really like Loyola to win big here. Speaking of home, the Ramblers 3 wins here since getting back to full strength have come by margins of 16, 14, and 23 points. They shoot almost 55% here while allowing their opponents to make only 40%. Getting Loyola at home off a loss is key here as well. Playing a freefalling Missouri State teams doesn’t hurt either. The Bears have lost 6 of their last 8 games with their only 2 wins during that stretch coming at home vs two of the MVC’s lower tier teams (Indiana State & Valpo). They have lost 4 straight road games and are 0-8 ATS their last 8 games. Over their last 5 games Missouri State is shooting just 37% and scoring only 62 points while allowing 69. Earlier this week the Bears were routed at home 76-60 by Illinois State who we rate as the 8th best team in the MVC. MSU was favored by 7 points in that game. The Bears are also dealing with a weird situation as far as injuries go. Two of their players, including key starter Reggie Scurry (9 PPG, 4 RPG, and lead team making 50% of his shots), will miss this game due to blisters on their feet caused by a cryotherapy session earlier this week. Missouri State won the first meeting in a game that went to the wire 64-59. Loyola was WITHOUT both Custer and Richardson in that game and still almost pulled off the road win. This one has the makings of a blowout. Take LOYOLA CHICAGO |
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02-01-18 | Coastal Carolina +3 v. Texas State | Top | 56-54 | Win | 100 | 22 h 3 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Coastal Carolina +3 over Texas State, Thursday at 8:30 PM ET This line is begging you to take Texas State at home laying only 3 points. Texas State is 14-9 overall and 7-3 in the Sun Belt yet laying only 3 at home to a Coastal Carolina team that is 10-13 overall and 4-6 in conference play. CC is the better team in our opinion and this line tells you that. They’ve played the much tougher overall schedule and their numbers in conference play (offensive & defensive efficiency) are better than Texas State’s. These two met earlier in the year and Texas State pulled off the 53-48 road upset at 6.5 point underdogs. CC was brutal offensively in that game shooting just 32% from the field including making only 1 three point shot in 17 attempts (6%). Texas State has won 7 games in the Sun Belt but we feel they are very lucky to sit with that record. Their conference wins have come by margins of 1, 1, 2, 3, 3, 5, and 6 points. In other words, they could just as easily be 3-7 in league play. Their home wins on the season have come by an average score of 65-63. Coastal has played a number of tight games this year some vs very good teams including a 4 point loss to Wake Forest and a 2 point loss to South Carolina. Eight of their thirteen losses have come by 6 points or less. The Chanticleers are on a roll right now coming into this game off 3 straight wins. We like Coastal Carolina to win this one outright. |
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01-31-18 | Mississippi State v. South Carolina -4.5 | Top | 81-76 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 6 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* South Carolina -4.5 over Mississippi State, Wednesday at 8:30 PM ET Mississippi State has a solid overall record of 15-6, but we feel they are overrated and their extremely weak non-conference schedule is catching up with this team. The Bulldogs began the season winning 13 of their first 14 games, however they played a grand total of ONE team ranked in the top 125 in non-conference play and that was Cincinnati. By the way, that was MSU’s one loss as the Bearcats rolled them by 15 points. Now that they’ve gotten into conference play, Mississippi State has lost 5 of their last 7 with their only wins during that stretch coming at home vs a struggling Missouri team and vs Vandy who is the worst team in the conference. They are 0-5 in true road games this year with their losses coming by margins of 6, 6, 13, 15, and 17 points. The Bulldogs are the most inefficient offense in the SEC (conference games) and the worst 3 point shooting team in the league. It gets worse on the road where the average only 57 PPG on a paltry 36% shooting. That’s a huge problem tonight as they face an aggressive South Carolina defense that ranks 23rd nationally in defensive efficiency. They’ll also be catching South Carolina, a Final 4 team last year, in an angry mood as they blew a home game on Saturday vs a very good Texas Tech team. The Gamecocks led by 5 late in the game only to blow the lead and lose at home. They have played a brutal schedule as of late facing Kentucky, Tennessee, Florida, and Texas Tech (all top 26 teams in Ken Pom ratings) and they split those games beating Kentucky & Florida. South Carolina has 2 road games following this contest so at 13-8 overall and 4-4 in the SEC, this becomes a huge game for this team. They can’t afford a loss here and we’ll lay the small number with the Gamecocks here! |
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01-30-18 | Rutgers v. Illinois UNDER 134.5 | Top | 60-91 | Loss | -107 | 7 h 5 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 134.5 Points - Rutgers @ Illinois, Tuesday at 7:00 PM ET These two teams are both better defensively than they are on offense. Rutgers is a terrible offensive team. One of the worst in the nation. They rank 304th in offensive efficiency and 348th (out of 351) in eFG%. They shoot just 39% for the season and it gets worse on the road where they make only 34% of their shots and average just 56 PPG. They are also one of the worst 3 point shooting teams in the nation (339th nationally). Since scoring 80 points at home vs Iowa, the worst defense in the Big Ten, Rutgers has averaged just 48 PPG over their last 3 contests. If you throw out their game vs Iowa where they shot an uncharacteristic 53% from the field, this team has scored 52, 51, 64, 59, 46, 47, 54, and 43 points in their last 8 Big Ten games. As bad as they are offensively, the Scarlet Knights play excellent defense ranking 13th nationally in defensive efficiency and they play at a slow tempo as well. Illinois will try and push the pace here, although we find that if a team wants to play slow as Rutgers does, they usually get the tempo they want. Expect a slow game tonight. That’s not great for the Illini who need a lot of possessions to score points because they don’t shoot the ball well. They rank 248th nationally in eFG% and make only 31% of their 3 point attempts which is 323rd nationally. Illinois is decent defensively with the 84th most efficient defense in the nation. These two teams have played a combined 33 games this year where Vegas set a total and they have combined to go OVER just 11 times. We spoke of Rutgers low scoring games, however Illinois has gone UNDER the total in 25 of their last 34 games dating back to last season. This one stays in the 120’s and we play the UNDER. |
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01-30-18 | Buffalo v. Kent State UNDER 159 | Top | 79-82 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 38 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 159 Points - Buffalo @ Kent State, Tuesday at 7:00 PM ET Our computer math model has this game ending with 150 total points. We feel the value here is absolutely on the UNDER. Buffalo has the top offense in the MAC and we understand that, however their defense is being overlooked here. They are the #1 defense in the league (conference games) allowing opponents to shoot only 40% and the Bulls have held 6 of their last 7 opponents below 70 points. They have held their opponents to a combined shooting percentage of just 39% in those 7 games. We don’t expect Kent, a below average shooting team (227th nationally in eFG% & 261st in 3 point FG%) to change that tonight. Defensively the Flashes have been pretty good in MAC play ranking 5th overall in the league in FG% defense and 2nd in 3 point FG% defense. This is the 4th highest total for Buffalo this year and 2nd highest this year for Kent and we don’t feel it is warranted. Kent has topped 160 points only ONCE this year in MAC play and just 3 times in their 21 games overall (in regulation). Buffalo has topped 160 points in just 2 of their MAC and only 6 of their 21 games overall this season (in regulation). We’re taking the UNDER here. |
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01-29-18 | Illinois-Chicago v. Wisc-Milwaukee -4 | Top | 74-56 | Loss | -113 | 5 h 29 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* UW Milwaukee -4 over Illinois Chicago, Monday at 8:00 PM ET Milwaukee is playing their best basketball of the year as we speak winning 3 straight games, all at home. This one marks their 5th consecutive home game so this team is confident, rested, and focused in right now. They’ve been waiting for this game with UIC for a few weeks now as they lost to the Flames on the road 88-73 back on January 12th. That game was an entirely different scenario as a tired UWM team playing their 4th straight road game in the span of 9 days was simply out of gas. They shot poorly (35%) while allowing UIC to scorch the nets (52%). The Panthers never led in the game and it was simply one of their poorest performances of the year. Now they get a chance at revenge in a completely different situation just 2 weeks later. We also feel the line value is with the Panthers as they were favored by 1-point AT Illinois Chicago just two weeks ago and now we are getting them at home only laying around 4 points. That Milwaukee team, as we mentioned, was a tired crew and struggled to slow down the Flames. This Milwaukee team is playing much better on both ends of the floor but especially on defense where they have held 3 straight opponents to less than 40% shooting – including Horizon leading Wright State (9-1) who’s only league loss was here vs UWM just 9 days ago. We were on UIC on Saturday and picked up a win as they covered vs IUPUI. We obviously realize the Flames are on a solid roll right now winning 6 of their last 7 games. We also realize that 5 of those 6 wins have come against the very bottom tier of the Horizon (Cleveland St, Youngstown St, UWGB, and IUPUI (twice). Their only win during that stretch vs a team rated higher than 290th was vs this UWM team who, as we stated, was in a terrible spot. The Flames are 3-7 in true road games this year with all 3 wins coming vs teams that rank below 300! UWM gets revenge and the cover here. |
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01-28-18 | Richmond v. Davidson UNDER 141 | Top | 66-63 | Win | 100 | 2 h 59 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: UNDER 140.5 Richmond @ Davidson, 2PM ET - Our predictive analytics suggests just 132 total points being scored in this game which is a significant difference than the Vegas number. Let’s start with pace of play as these two teams prefer to play slow. Richmond is 229th in the nation in tempo overall and the 9th slowest team in the A-10. Davidson is slower yet, ranking 320th (out of 351) in pace which makes them the slowest paced in the conference. Not to mention the A-10 is one of the slowest conferences in the nation. Neither team has great overall defensive efficiency numbers on the season, but both have been drastically better in conference action. Davidson allows just .97 points per possession in conference play while Richmond allows 1.015PPP which are 1st and 5th in the A-10. Earlier this year when these two teams met they totaled just 127 points. The bet here is UNDER! |
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01-27-18 | IUPU Ft Wayne v. South Dakota State -10.5 | Top | 76-78 | Loss | -107 | 19 h 13 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* South Dakota State -10.5 over IPFW, Saturday at 5:15 PM ET South Dakota State had their 8 game winning streak come to an end on Wednesday in a 19 point loss @ South Dakota. It was a 6 point game at half but South Dakota was able to pull away in the 2nd as a normally sharp shooting SDSU team (26th nationally in eFG%) made only 40% of their shots. It was a poor overall game and you can bet the Jackrabbits are set to respond at home where they are undefeated this year winning by an average margin of 20 PPG. Amazingly this SDSU team has won 50 of their last 52 home games! The Jackrabbits are 17-6 on the year (5-1 in the Summit) and all 6 losses have come against teams ranked in the top 110 (4 in the top 90). By comparison, IPFW has 9 losses and 7 of those have come against teams ranked 146 or lower – 4 vs teams ranked below 200. The Matadors are just 3-7 on the road this year and have been a big time money burner away from home going just 5-23 ATS their last 28 road games. IPFW simply isn’t playing very well right now with a 3-3 record their last 6 games, although it could be worse as 2 of those 3 wins came at home in games they had to come from behind in the 2nd half to win. Those come from behind, 4 point home wins came against 6-14 Nebraska Omaha and 11-10 North Dakota State. Not an impressive 6 game stretch for IPFW to say the least. South Dakota State, along with South Dakota, are easily the top 2 teams in the Summit this year. We get them off a bad loss back at home where they’ve won 10 of their 11 games this year by double digits. They have dominated IPFW here winning each of the last 7 seasons by blowout margins of 10, 16, 29, 28, 26, 36, and 35. SDSU is 11-2 ATS at home and the host has covered 11 of the last 12 in this series. We see another blowout on the way in this one. |
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01-27-18 | Texas A&M +7 v. Kansas | 68-79 | Loss | -104 | 18 h 26 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 8* Texas A&M +7 over Kansas, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET The Aggies are just 2-6 in the SEC, however they are much better than their record. Three of their five starters were out of the line up for 4 of those 6 SEC losses including Duane Wilson (missed 3 games – all losses), Admon Gilder (missed 5 games / 2-3 record), and DJ Hogg (missed 3 games / 1-2 record). When this team is full strength, which they are right now, they are dangerous. Let’s not forget this team beat West Virginia, Oklahoma State, USC, and lost by 3 @ Arizona before they even entered SEC play. They are starting to click again winning 2 of their last 3 games but are coming off a poor performance @ LSU which should have them extra motivated here. The Aggies are strong defensively (6th nationally in defensive efficiency) and on the boards where they are 29th in offensive rebounding. Those traits transfer well to the road. Kansas is in a tough spot coming off a loss @ Oklahoma 85-80 in a game they led for a vast majority. The Jayhawks also have a huge rivalry game @ KSU on Monday. Kansas simply isn’t the dominating team they’ve been in the past and that is magnified at home where they’ve had a number of close calls and already have 2 losses at the Phog. Their Big 12 home wins have come by margins of 1, 3, and 5 points along with a 12 point loss here vs Texas Tech. The Jayhawks have failed to cover 4 in a row at home and we think A&M has a very good shot to pull this upset. We like the points. |
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01-27-18 | Rutgers +8.5 v. Penn State | 43-60 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 47 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 8* Rutgers +8.5 over Penn State, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET We catch PSU off a huge road win over Ohio State on Thursday night so we expect a bit of a letdown in this quick turnaround game just 44 hours after their OSU game ended. The Nittany Lions were 9 point dogs in that game but shot lights out hitting 58% of their shots overall and making a ridiculous 11 of 14 from beyond the arc (78%)! Even with that they were only able to squeak out a 3 point win. Look for those numbers to plummet in this game facing a Rutgers team that hangs their hat on playing great defense and a slow tempo. The Scarlet Knights play shut down defense as they rank 18th nationally in defensive efficiency and 15th in eFG% defense. They have held 7 of their 9 Big Ten opponents in the 60’s or less and we expect the same here which will make it tough on PSU to pull away. Rutgers is vastly improved and they have given played to the wire with a number of solid opponents including Michigan State twice. PSU has very little home court advantage. They often play in a mostly empty building and we’d have to figure with Rutgers in town the crowd will be sparse. The Nits are just 2-2 at home in Big Ten play this year and they have lost 10 games at home just since the start of last season. They are 4-5 in Big Ten play and 3 of their 4 wins have come by 4 points or less. We mentioned Penn State is coming off a big win but they also have a huge game on deck with Michigan State. This is absolutely a spot Rutgers can sneak up on them and make this a game. The Knights know they can get it done here as they beat PSU on the road last year as an 8-point dog. We think this is tight throughout and we’re taking the points. |
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01-27-18 | Oklahoma v. Alabama +1 | 73-80 | Win | 100 | 4 h 42 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 8* Alabama +1 over Oklahoma, Saturday at 2:15 PM ET Bama is off an embarrassing performance @ Ole Miss and they catch OU off a come from behind home win over Kansas. Great spot to take Bama as a home dog in our opinion. The Tide had won 4 straight before losing by 12 @ Ole Miss on Tuesday. Their top player, Collin Sexton, recently missed 2 games but came back vs the Rebels. He’s back to 100% now and should be a prime factor in this game. Alabama has struggled at times on the road this year but at home they have been very good. They are 9-1 at home including 3 wins over top 35 teams (Auburn, Rhode Island, and Texas A&M). They are shooting 50% at home while allowing opponents to make only 38% of their shots. The Tide have been a home dog just once this year vs Auburn and they won that game outright without Sexton who was injured at the time. We believe OU will have a tough time with this one after their emotional come from behind win over Kansas this week. The Sooners have been poor on the road going just 1-3 in Big 12 play with their only win coming by a single point. They have been outscored by 5 PPG on the road this year and are shooting only 40%. We foresee more offensive shooting woes today vs a very good Bama defense (27th nationally in eFG% defense). Oklahoma is stepping into a hornet’s nest here with Bama coming off a loss which will give them a little extra motivation. Our power ratings have Alabama favored in this game so we’ll take advantage of the value and side with the Tide at home. |
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01-25-18 | Arkansas State v. Coastal Carolina UNDER 148.5 | Top | 47-62 | Win | 100 | 2 h 16 m | Show |
ASA #529/530 UNDER 148.5 Arkansas State @ Coastal Carolina, 7:30PM ET - Our computer analytics predict a Total of 141 or less points on this game and we're betting it's right. This is our favorite wager on the card today and expect a very low scoring game here. Let's start with the number on this game of 148.5. Coastal Carolina recently played UL Lafayette who is the best team in the Sun Belt conference. ULL has the most efficient offense by a wide margin in conference action and Vegas posted a Total on that contest of 150. Now CC faces an Arkansas State team that averages .13 points per possession less than ULL. For those of you that don't follow efficiency numbers that's a huge difference. In Coastal's case, they faced a team recently who is very similar to Arky State, in Texas State and those two teams combined for just 140 total points. The Chanticleers are the 8th slowest paced team in the Sun Belt and have the 3rd worst offensive efficiency numbers at .975 points per possession. Prior to a game against Troy, Coastal Carolina had scored 57, 58, 66 and 64 points in their previous four games. Arkansas State is also a slower paced team much like CC as they average just 67.6 possessions per game in conference play. Let's not forget the Sun Belt is one of the slower paced conferences in the nation and also in the bottom third in shooting and scoring. In both teams last five games they are shooting just 42.8% (Arky St) and 38.9% (CC). The Red Wolves are near the college average in pace of play but 8th in the Sun Belt. They are average or below in most offensive efficiency categories and shooting percentages. Last year in two meeting these two teams combined for 124 and 135 total points. The bet here is UNDER! |
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01-24-18 | Indiana v. Illinois -2 | Top | 71-73 | Push | 0 | 6 h 31 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Illinois -2 over Indiana, Wednesday at 9:00 PM ET on Big Ten Network Things that make you go hmm? The Illini come into this game with an 0-8 record in the Big Ten. Indiana is 5-3. Despite that the Illini opened as a 1 point favorite and have moved up from there. We agree with the move. Illinois is undervalued due to their conference record. We sided with this team on Monday night as they were +12 vs Michigan State and the barely missed the cover losing by 13 against one of the top 2 teams in the league (along with Purdue). They obviously have a quick turn around here after playing 2 nights ago, however they have the advantage in this situation playing again at home. Indiana also played on Monday night, they came from 5 points down vs Maryland with just a few minutes to go in the game to pick up a 61-58 win. Now the Hoosiers are on the road in this tough scheduling spot. Speaking of the road, IU is 1-5 in true road games this year losing by an average margin of 12 points per game. The Hoosiers are scoring only 63 PPG on the road and making just 41% of their shots while their defense is allowing over 48%. Illinois is 9-3 at home this season with two of their three losses coming in OT. The only team that handled Illinois at home was Michigan State as we discussed and they are light year’s better than this Indiana team. The host is hungry for a win here and they catch Indiana off a come from behind big home win and the Hoosiers host Purdue next. Illinois gets their first Big Ten win here. |
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01-24-18 | DePaul v. Georgetown OVER 144.5 | 74-73 | Win | 100 | 5 h 1 m | Show | |
#747/748 OVER 144 DePaul @ Georgetown, 8:30PM ET (Fox 1). The numbers don't lie here as our computer analytics suggest 150+ total points in this game. Both teams play faster with DePaul ranking 114th in tempo and Georgetown checking in at 38th. In Big East play these two teams are top 4 in pace of play and that's in a conference that is 2nd fastest of all the conferences. The Big East is also the 2nd most efficient league along with the 5th best shooting. Georgetown is above average in EFG% offense but make up for it by being a great offensive rebounding team and shooting free throws. DePaul is very similar to G-Town in that regard as they don't shoot it well but play fast, go to the glass hard and make FT's. What DePaul doesn't do well is defend the 3-point line as they allow foes to hit 37.4% of their attempts which is 291st out of 351 schools. The Hoyas shoot 35% from 3 which is above average. These same two teams squared off in early January and combined for 171 total points. The Total on that game was 146 and now we see a number that is less than the college average (145). The bet here is OVER! |
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01-24-18 | Loyola-Chicago v. Drake UNDER 140 | 80-57 | Win | 100 | 4 h 17 m | Show | |
#739/740 UNDER 139 Loyola Chicago @ Drake, 8PM ET - This is a showdown for the top spot in the Missouri Valley Conference and should be a defensive grinder. We recently used and won a bet on the Under in the Missouri State versus Drake game which finished with just 119 total points. We state that because Missouri State and Loyola are very similar in terms of pace, offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency. Loyola is 318th in tempo and takes a shot every 18.2 seconds which is very deliberate. Drake isn't quite as slow as Loyola but they still play at a snail's pace (237th). On the season the Ramblers hold foes to just 42.4% shooting on the road while the Bulldogs hold opponents to just 40.5% at home. The Missouri Conference is one of the slowest overall conferences in college hoops and one of the worst shooting yet the number on this game is near the college average. Our Math Model suggests just 130 total points in this contest. |
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01-24-18 | Samford v. Chattanooga OVER 144.5 | 71-78 | Win | 100 | 3 h 17 m | Show | |
#777/778 OVER 145 Samford @ Tennessee Chattanooga, 7PM ET - This game features two really bad defense so scoring point shouldn't be difficult for either team. Overall, Samford is ranked 348th out of 351 schools in defensive efficiency ratings while Chattanooga is 250th. In conference play the Bulldogs give up 1.143 points per possession which is 8th out of ten schools. The Mocs of Chattanooga allow 1.169PPP which is dead last in SoCon play. Samford is the 3rd fastest paced team in conference action while Tenn Chatt is 8th. Samford is allowing 81PPG on the season while Chat gives up 74PPG. In their last five games these two teams have allowed opponents to shoot over 47% and 55% so neither gets to shooters or contests shots. The SoCon is the 2nd best EFG% shooting conference in college hoops which probably has a lot to do with poor defense which will be the case tonight. Our math says 151. |
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01-23-18 | Davidson v. Dayton +1 | 64-65 | Win | 100 | 4 h 34 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 8* Dayton +1 over Davidson, Tuesday at 7:00 PM ET This A-10 showdown figures to be a good one as the 3-4 Dayton Flyers must win here to stay in the conference race, but the 5-1 Davidson Wildcats stand in the way. Davidson has some impressive overall statistics but they've faced a really soft schedule in conference play with their last five games against teams that rank in the bottom half of the A-10. Their last meaningful road game was at Richmond where they lost by 11. Other road losses for the Wildcats include: Hawaii, Charlotte and Appalachian State who are all worse than Dayton. The Flyers have the 76th best offensive efficiency rating and are the 30th best EFG% team in college hoops. Dayton is shooting a ridiculous 68% from 2-pt range in January and have the 5th best percentage from that distance on the season. Dayton is off two straight losses, the most recent at home to Rhode Island who is the best team in the conference. We typically don't give a ton of value to 'revenge' but in some circumstances is certainly carries weight, which is the case here. Last year Davidson beat Dayton in the A-10 Tourney so there is a little more motivation on the Flyers side here. Dayton is 78-16 (83%) SU at home since 2012 and get a much needed victory. |
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01-23-18 | Oklahoma State v. Texas Tech -9 | 70-75 | Loss | -103 | 4 h 32 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 8* Texas Tech -9 over Oklahoma State, Tuesday at 7:00 PM ET Tech is one of the best teams in the country and they are coming off back to back road losses. They are 12-0 at home and 10 of those wins have come by more than 10 points. Their only Big 12 home tilt that was a blowout was their game vs top 10 West Virginia. The Red Raiders were favored by 5 in that game vs WVU and now laying just 2 more buckets vs an OSU team ranked 50+ spots lower than the Mountaineers. Tech’s average score at home this year is 80-57 and they hit 50% of their shots here while allowing their opponents to make only 35%. They have whipped both KSU and Baylor here and both those teams are better than Okie State. On top of that, we get the Cowboys in a perfect letdown spot here. They just beat arch rival Oklahoma in OT 83-81 at home on Saturday. Their 3 best players were on the court for 35+ minutes. The fans rushed the court following the win and the OSU players were carried around as if they had won the national championship. We expect them to be a bit flat on the road only a few days following that scene. Not only that, the Cowboys are 0-3 in true road games this year allowing 90 PPG on 50% shooting! Tech will put points on the board tonight vs that porous defense while the same can’t be said for an OSU offense that is facing a defense that is ranked 4th nationally in defensive efficiency. This one has blowout written all over it. Lay the points. |
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01-23-18 | Arkansas v. Georgia -1.5 | 80-77 | Loss | -106 | 3 h 3 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 8* Georgia -1.5 over Arkansas, Tuesday at 6:30 PM ET UGA is in a must win type situation here at home after losing 3 of their last 4. The Dawgs have quickly gone from an NCAA tourney team to a bubble team with their recent results. As with most college teams, they are much better at home and 3 of their last 4 have been on the road. Their most recent game @ Auburn, who is 17-2 on the season, Georgia led by 14 at half but struggled offensively in the 2nd half and lost by double digits. After their most recent terrible half, we expect this team to come out with a purpose tonight and play very well at home where they are 8-1. The Razors are coming in off a tight home win over Ole Miss. They are just 2-4 their last 6 games with both of their wins coming at home by margins of 2 & 4 points. Arkansas has yet to win a true road game this year (0-4 record) and we don’t see that happening here. The Razors are solid offensively, but in road games you must play solid defense because the shooting isn’t always there. That’s where Arky struggles as they rank dead last in the SEC (conference games) in defensive efficiency and eFG% defense. That gives Georgia a HUGE advantage on that end as they rank 1st and 2nd in the SEC in those categories. At home, UGA allows their opponents to make only 36% of their shots while Arkansas allows 48% on the road. The Bulldogs are also the better rebounding team. While they do struggle on offense at times, they are at home where they’ve hit 45% of their shots this year. A desperate defensive home team tonight is the way to go as we like Georgia. |
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01-22-18 | Michigan State v. Illinois +12 | Top | 87-74 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 34 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Illinois +12 over Michigan State, Monday at 9:00 PM ET on Fox Sports One Sparty coming off a blowout win over Indiana and Illinois coming off their worst outing of the year sets this up as a dog play. Because of those results the value is definitely on the Illini at home. For comparison’s sake the Illini were 10 point underdogs AT Michigan just a few weeks ago. Now they are getting more than that, at home vs a team Michigan beat on the road this year. MSU is obviously a very good team but they’ve had a more than favorable schedule over the last month. Over their last 9 games dating back to mid December, the Spartans have been on the road just ONCE. That was a 14 point loss @ Ohio State. They’ve actually only played 2 true road games the entire season, their loss @ OSU and a 10 point win @ Rutgers. Illinois is 10-10 on the season but winless in the Big Ten. That’s a very deceiving record as the Illini have been competitive in every game this year with the exception of their most recent loss @ Wisconsin on Friday night. This team simply didn’t show up for that game and after that embarrassing performance, we like this team to play very well at home on Monday night. Of Illinois’ 10 losses only ONE has come by more than 10 points and three were in OT. At home they are 9-2 on the season and both losses came in OT. The Spartans are still a very young team with 4 sophomores and 1 freshman in the starting line up. How do they handle a rare road game coming off a blowout win? They might be a bit fat and happy and the Illini are hungry taking on a name opponent at home. MSU wins this game, but it’s much tighter than this number. Take the points. |
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01-20-18 | Evansville v. Bradley -4.5 | Top | 53-66 | Win | 100 | 21 h 57 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Bradley -4.5 over Evansville, Saturday at 8:00 PM ET We really love the way this game sets up for Bradley. They are coming off back to back road losses @ Loyola Chicago and @ Illinois State so the Braves really need a win at home on Saturday. Speaking of home, this team is 9-0 at home this year and they have won 12 of their last 13 at Carver Arena with their lone loss during that run coming by 2 points last season. Not only are they tough to beat at home, they cover here at a ridiculous rate. Bradley is a big time money making 21-4-2 ATS (84%) their last 27 home games! The Braves are fantastic defensively ranking 22nd nationally in eFG% defense and even better at home where they allow opponents to make only 34% of their shot attempts. Their average margin of victory at home this year is 14 points. They take on an Evansville team that is 1-5 on the road this season. The Aces have lost 6 of their last 8 games, they are a banged up team right now and threw up a red flag for us on Saturday when they lost at home to an Indiana State team that had lost 4 of their previous 5 road games. That’s all well and good but we have another motivator in our back pocket and that is the fact that these two teams played just 12 days ago @ Evansville. The Aces won the game easily 68-44 in what was one of Bradley’s worst defensive performances of the year. Evansville hit 50% of their shots, 53% of their 3 pointers and made every FT they took for the game (10 for 10). That won’t come close to happening again as the Braves are back at home where they play shut down defense. That’s a problem for a below average shooting Evansville team that averages just 62 PPG on the road. Evansville was just a 1 point favorite at home less than two weeks ago which tells us Bradley should be -7 or -8 in this game. Getting them in this spot with a low number is great value in our opinion. Bradley rolls and wins again at home. |
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01-20-18 | Missouri State v. Drake UNDER 138 | 58-61 | Win | 100 | 5 h 6 m | Show | |
#599/600 ASA PLAY ON: UNDER 137 Missouri State @ Drake, 4PM ET - This shapes up to be a very low scoring game and we don't see these two teams topping 130 points here. Missouri St is the 315th slowest paced team in college hoops and take 18.1 seconds to get a shot up so they are very deliberate on the offensive end of the court. The Bears have attempted 59 or less field goals in nine straight games and scored 68 or less points in 8 of their last ten games. Missouri State also has the #1 ranked defensive efficiency numbers in the Missouri Valley Conference this season. Drake is very comfortable playing a slower paced game as they rank 247th in tempo. The Bulldogs have totaled 137 points in three of their last four games. Drake has attempted 52 or less field goals in four straight games and 7 of their last ten. Both teams are playing solid defense right now as MOST allows just 42.1% shooting on the road this season and 41.7% their last five overall. Drake is holding opponents to just 41.4% at home this year. The Missouri Valley Conference is the 30th (out of 32) slowest conference in college hoops with a tempo of 66.8. It is also the third worst conference in terms of offensive efficiency ratings. The bet here is UNDER! |
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01-20-18 | Xavier v. Seton Hall -1.5 | Top | 73-64 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 28 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Seton Hall -1.5 over Xavier, Saturday at 2:30 PM ET Seton Hall is coming off a road loss @ Creighton on Wednesday night. We felt that was a great spot for the Blue Jays who were coming off a road loss and we cashed nicely with Creighton. Now we feel the Hall is in a great spot to bounce back off that loss. The Pirates are a perfect 11-0 at home beating teams by an average score of 82-66. They are one of the more veteran teams in the Big East with 4 upperclassmen in the starting line up that have played A LOT of basketball together. All 4 started on last year’s 21-12 NCAA tourney team, including 6’10 double/double machine Angel Delgado. This veteran team has a tendency to bounce back strong after a loss as they’ve had only three 2-game losing streaks since the start of last season (none this year). Xavier is coming off 2 straight home wins beating Creighton and St Johns. However all 3 of their losses on the season have come away from home and they are getting outscored by 2 points per game on the road. The Musketeers have lost each of their last 2 road games getting whipped by 24 points @ Villanova and losing by 9 @ Providence. The host has won 6 of the last 7 in this series with Seton Hall winning 71-64 at home last year as a 4 point favorite. Xavier has never won @ Seton Hall in Big East play and we don’t expect that to change on Saturday. The Hall picks up a win and cover at home. |
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01-20-18 | Butler -5 v. DePaul | Top | 79-67 | Win | 100 | 3 h 7 m | Show |
#560 ASA PLAY ON #553 Butler (-5) over DePaul, 2PM ET - Butler has gone through a brutal schedule and have lost 4 of their last five games but now have an opportunity to right the ship against a struggling DePaul team. Butler is ranked 42 in KenPom rankings with the 29th rated offensive efficiency numbers and 83rd DEFF numbers. What makes those numbers more impressive is the fact they've played the 6th hardest schedule in college hoops. Just take a look at their losses this season: @ #38 Maryland, #35 Texas, #2 Purdue, @#16 Xavier, #22 Seton Hall, @#18 Creighton and @#57 Providence. Now they are coming off a loss, playing a DePaul team ranked outside of the top 100. The Blue Demons rank 160th in OEFF and 75th in DEFF with an EFG% offense that is 292 out of 351 schools. DePaul's home wins this year aren't impressive either as they've come against: Delaware State, Youngstown State, Central Connecticut, Alabama A&M and Miami OH. All of those schools rank 250th or worse and are nowhere near the caliber of this Butler team. Given the circumstances we expect a double-digit Bulldog win. |
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01-19-18 | Buffalo v. Western Michigan UNDER 153 | 84-74 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 35 m | Show | |
#819/820 ASA PLAY ON UNDER 153 Buffalo vs. Western Michigan, 7PM ET - Two contrasting styles of play here but we expect the home team, Western Michigan, to control the pace enough for this to be a lower scoring game. Buffalo is one of the faster paced teams in college hoops at 73.3 possessions per game. WMU is one of the slower though, ranking 235th in pace or 67.5 possessions per game. Western is not a great shooting team at 49.1% EFG percentage which is 240th in the nation. Their 2-point percentage shooting is just 46.1% which is 294th. Buffalo is top 100 in several different offensive categories but recently they've played two similar teams to WMU in Balls State and Akron and those games finished 152 and 146 total points. Western Michigan is the slowest paced team in the MAC which is a big reason why 10 of their last eleven conference games have stayed UNDER the number. The bet here is UNDER. |
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01-18-18 | St. Mary's v. Gonzaga -7.5 | Top | 74-71 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 51 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Gonzaga -7.5 over St Marys, Thursday at 9 PM ET on ESPN These two are almost identical offensively with each ranking in the top 10 nationally in offensive efficiency and eFG%. The difference here is the Zags are MUCH better defensively ranking 17th nationally in defensive efficiency compared to 128th for the Gaels. We also can’t over state how big a home court advantage Gonzaga has. They are 10-0 at home this year with a ridiculous average winning margin of 30 points. They shoot 52% at home while allowing their opponents to shoot only 38%. They have won 25 of their last 26 games at home and amazingly only ONE of those 25 wins have come by less than 10 points. The Zags have played the much tougher schedule having already faced 6 teams ranked in the top 55 nationally and having beaten the likes of Ohio State, Texas, and Creighton. St Mary’s has not played a single team ranked higher than 50 on the season. Four of the five St Mary’s road games this year have come against teams ranked 221 or lower. Now they take a massive step up on competition facing a Gonzaga team coming in at #6. It’s also not a great scheduling spot for the Gaels as they are playing their 3rd consecutive road game on the span of a week. When these two met here last year the Zags were favored by 5 a walloped St Marys 79-56. That has been a common theme in this series as taking a look back to the late 1990’s, the Zags are 19-2 at home vs St Marys with 15 of those wins coming by 10 point or more! Gonzaga also has some added motivation here as St Marys was a unanimous pick to win the West Coast Conference by the league coaches. That fact has been circulating through the Gonzaga locker room this week and word is they are ready to prove a point tonight. Take Gonzaga to win by double digits AGAIN at home. |
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01-18-18 | Mercer v. VMI UNDER 137.5 | 62-56 | Win | 100 | 3 h 8 m | Show | |
#585/586 ASA PLAY ON: UNDER 137.5 Mercer @ VMI, 7PM ET Mercer is the 334th slowest paced team in college basketball while VMI is 223rd. VA Military is one of the worst teams in nation when it comes to offensive efficiency as they rank 345th out of 351 schools. Their overall EFG% offenses isn't much better either ranking 323rd. In other words they struggle to score points. VM I has lost 6 straight games and have scored 65 or less points in all six, less than 58 four times. VMI recently played UNC Greensboro who is similar to Mercer in terms of pace of play and those two teams combined for just 124 total points. Mercer is much better offensively than VMI in terms of OEFF and EFG% but again they play very deliberate. Mercer recently played two other teams that are a lot like VMI (Samford, Chattanooga) in terms of pace of play and those games finished with just 131 and 132 (in regulation). In the two meetings last year these two conference rivals combined for just 132 and 118 total points. The Under is 15-2 in VM I's last 17 conference games while Mercer Under in 5 of their last six in the Southern Conference. BET UNDER! |
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01-17-18 | Seton Hall v. Creighton -4.5 | Top | 63-80 | Win | 100 | 6 h 30 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Creighton -4.5 over Seton Hall, Wednesday at 8:30 PM ET on Fox Sports One These two met in December and Seton Hall had to rally from 13 down in the 2nd half to pick up the 90-84 home win. The Jays dominated much of the game leading most of the way before the late push from the Hall. Despite controlling most of the game, Creighton didn’t shoot particularly well shooting just 20% from 3 point range (5 for 25) from a team that normally hits 38.4% which is one of the best marks in the nation. They were also outscored at the FT line by 11 points and yet even with those two situations, still probably should have won the game. Now they get their 2nd crack at the Pirates. Seton Hall is a very good 15-3 on the year but they have played only 4 true road games and split those for a 2-2 record. That includes a 20 point loss @ Marquette and a 6 point loss at Rutgers, one of the worst teams in the Big Ten. Their lone Big East road win was a solid 90-87 win @ Butler, however it was a game the Hall trailed by 11 with under 10:00 remaining in the game. The Pirates never led by more than 4 points in the game so they were fairly fortunate to come out of that with a win. Now they face a Creighton team with extra motivation and a team that is simply fantastic at home. The Jays are perfect 11-0 at home on the season with every win coming by at least 7 points. Creighton is one of the top shooting teams in the nation but at home they take it to another level hitting 54% of their shots and average 93 PPG. They beat Seton Hall here last year by 14 and we also get Creighton off a loss on Saturday @ Xavier. We were on the Musketeers in that game however this spot absolutely calls for a play on Creighton at home. |
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01-17-18 | Southern Illinois v. Loyola-Chicago -7.5 | Top | 65-79 | Win | 100 | 6 h 37 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Loyola Chicago -7.5 over Southern Illinois, Wednesday at 8:00 PM ET - MISSOURI VALLEY GAME OF THE MONTH Loyola is a bit undervalued right now in our opinion. They began the season winning 11 of their first 12 games with their only loss coming @ Boise State where nobody wins (Boise is 49-6 their last 55 home games). The Ramblers then went through a stretch in late December where they lost 4 of 5 games, however they were without their best player, Clayton Custer (former Iowa State transfer), at that time as he was out with an injury. Custer has since returned and Loyola has won all 3 games since he’s come back. With Custer in the lineup this year they are 12-1. Another key player, Ben Richardson, recently returned from injury and since he’s been back on the court, this team is 4-1. The point is, when the Ramblers are at full strength, they might just be the best team in the Missouri Valley Conference. This is a game they have been waiting for as well after getting swept last year vs Southern Illinois. The Ramblers are at home for the 2nd straight game after destroying a very solid Bradley team on Saturday 81-65. We have Bradley rated better than tonight’s opponent Southern Illinois. The Salukis are off a huge rivalry win over Illinois State on Saturday so it won’t be a shock if they are a bit flat on the road tonight. In that win, SIU was down by 14 points at home with just 7:00 remaining in the game and rallied for the 74-70 win. If not for that come from behind win, this team would be just 1-4 over their last 5 games with their only win coming by 2 points at home vs Evansville. With the win, they are still only 2-3 their last 5 and simply not playing all that well. Part of that is they are still trying to recover from two key season ending injuries in late December/early January to key rotation players Wiley & McGill. That has basically limited the Salukis to a 6 man rotation and we look for that to catch up to them tonight after their big come from behind win on Saturday. Loyola has won 10 of their last 11 at home with their only loss coming when both Custer & Richardson were out. Their average margin of victory at home is +14 points and they are hitting 55% of their shots here. That’s a bad match up for an SIU defense that has really been poor as of late allowing opponents to hit almost 50% over their last 5 games. We think Loyola controls this game from start to finish in an easy double digit win. |
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01-16-18 | Detroit v. IUPU-Indianapolis UNDER 156 | 66-81 | Win | 100 | 1 h 9 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON: UNDER 156 Detroit U @ IUPUI, 7PM ET - The home team here, IUPUI, will dictate tempo and keep the Titans from playing their game which is up-and-down. The Jaguars are one of the slowest paced teams in college hoops at 281st while Detroit is 11th. In a very similar situation the Jags hosted a UW Green Bay (22nd pace) team recently and the two Horizon League teams combined for just 128 total points. Defensively neither team is good as both rank 312th or worse in defensive efficiency ratings but neither is good offensively either as IUPUI ranks 242nd while Detroit is 192nd. The Titans are shooting just 42.6% offensively on the season while IUPUI is hitting under 41%. Detroit is playing in an unfamiliar building for the first time, on the road for the first time in 5 games, so expect them to struggle shooting here. IUPUI sets the pace at home and this game stays well under the number. |
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01-15-18 | Duke v. Miami-FL +3.5 | Top | 83-75 | Loss | -102 | 21 h 51 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Miami FL +3.5 over Duke, Monday at 7:00 PM ET on ESPN The Canes have had the Dukies number as of late winning 5 of the last 8 games vs the Blue Devils and Miami is 10-3-2 their last 15 ATS in this series. We think Duke is primed to be upset again in this game. The Devils are young with 4 freshmen in the starting line up. Because of that, they’ve been inconsistent at best on the road. They’ve played 3 road games in ACC play and lost 2 of them @ BC and @ NC State, two middle to lower tier conference teams. Their lone ACC road win was @ Pitt who is by far the worst team in the conference. Now they face a very good Miami team and the Canes are coming off a loss @ Clemson who is 15-2 on the year. The 9 point final margin was very deceiving as this game was tight throughout as Miami trailed just 60-57 with under 2:00 minutes remaining. Clemson hit 57% of their shots and made 16 of 17 FT’s and despite that it was still a very tight game. The Canes played a rare poor defensive game and we expect them to bounce back and play much better on that end of the court here. Miami is a fantastic defensive team ranking 7th nationally in defensive efficiency and 2nd in eFG% defense. They are a deep and veteran team with 8 players averaging more than 10 minutes per game. They can absolutely match up athletically with the Blue Devils and this is one of the Canes games of the year so they will bring it in this game. Miami has won 33 of their last 35 home games and we can’t pass on them getting points in this spot. Duke goes down in this one. |
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01-15-18 | Butler v. Providence -1 | Top | 60-70 | Win | 100 | 19 h 3 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Providence -1 over Butler, Sunday at 4:30 PM ET on Fox Sports One Butler is coming off a big home win over Marquette but the road hasn’t been so kind to the Bulldogs. They are just 1-3 in their 4 true road games this season and their one win was in OT @ Georgetown who is the 2nd lowest rated team in the Big East just ahead of DePaul. Their other 3 road tilts were all double digit losses. They have shot just 42% away from home and allowed their opponents to hit 48% of their shots and score 84 PPG. The Bulldogs have also lost 3 of their last 4 games overall. Providence is playing well right now. They’ve won 2 straight and 4 of their last 6 with one of those two setbacks coming in OT. Their most recent home game was an impressive 9 point win over a very good Xavier team. The Friars are a balanced and veteran team with four players averaging 10 PPG or more, three of those players being seniors. Since Butler joined the Big East in 2014, the Friars have dominated the series winning 7 of the 9 games and 3 of 4 at home. With this line sitting at -1, we simply need Providence to win at home which we think they well. This line should be higher and the Friars are the play in this game. |
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01-14-18 | Davidson v. Fordham UNDER 136 | Top | 75-45 | Win | 100 | 4 h 42 m | Show |
ASA play on: UNDER 135.5 Davidson vs Fordham, 3PM ET – These are the two slowest paced teams in the A10 Conference which is also the 28th slowest conference out of 32 in the country. Overall Davidson is 314th in the nation in tempo while Fordham is 274th. And while Davidson is very efficient offensively ranking 55th at 1.116 points per possession, Fordham is not ranking 330th at .94PPP. Defensively though the Rams are 129th and give up just 1.023PPP. Davidson is 159th in DEFF and hold foes to a shot every 18 seconds defensively. Davidson recently played at Richmond who is VERY similar to this Fordham team and those two combined for just 127 total points. Fordham recently played St Bonaventure (comparable to Davidson) and totaled 139 points but unlike Davidson, St Bona plays much faster. Fordham has really struggled with their shooting of late by hitting less than 41% of their attempts while Davidson has held their last five opponents to under 42% shooting. This sets up to be lower scoring. BET UNDER! |
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01-13-18 | San Diego State v. Boise State -3.5 | Top | 80-83 | Loss | -115 | 27 h 55 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Boise State -3.5 over San Diego State, Saturday at 10 PM ET on ESPN2 Tough not to strongly consider Boise at home with a low number like this. Their home court advantage at the Taco Bell Arena is as good as any in the country. They are a perfect 9-0 at home this year winning games by an average of margin of +22 points. Going back further, this Boise team is 48-6 their last 54 home games! The Broncos shoot 51% from the field at home this year and average 83 PPG while allowing only 37% and 61 PPG. This is a very good Boise State team (14-3 record) that is one of our 3 favorites to win the Mountain West Conference along with Nevada and their opponent on Saturday, San Diego State. The Aztecs are still solid but down a bit this year in our opinion. They are just 2-2 on the road this season and we faded them a few weeks ago @ Wyoming where they lost 82-69 as a 3 point favorite. Since that loss the Aztecs have won 3 straight but those wins have come against 3 of the 4 lowest rated teams in the MWC (San Jose St, Utah St, and Colorado St). SDSU is a solid defensive team, but not a great shooting team ranking 203rd nationally in eFG% and 272nd in 3-point FG%. Speaking of defense, Boise is very good on that end of the court and actually better than SDSU. The Broncos are 15th nationally in defensive efficiency, 17th in defensive eFG% and 5th in defending the arc. On top of that, they are a great rebounding team rank #1 in the nation on the defensive glass. We spoke of their offense prowess at home so they have a big edge there in this game as well. We feel that Boise is the better team overall this year and will be very focused at home here as this is a game they have circled every year. Boise rolled to a 78-66 win here vs the Aztecs last year and we see a similar result on Saturday night. |
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01-13-18 | Creighton v. Xavier -3.5 | Top | 70-92 | Win | 100 | 3 h 42 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Xavier -3.5 over Creighton, Saturday at 2:00 PM ET on FOX We think this is a great spot for Xavier as they are coming off 2 straight losses, both on the road. Those losses @ Providence and @ Villanova dropped the Musketeers into a tie for 4th place in the Big East and their opponent today, Creighton, sits in 1st place with a 4-1 mark. This is a HUGE early season home game for XU as they don’t want to drop too far behind the Blue Jays. Home court advantage is key here as Xavier is 11-0 at home this season winning by an average margin of 19 PPG. They shoot 49% here at the Cintas Center and allow just 37%. They have won 38 of their last 43 home games and all but 3 of those 38 wins have come by more than 3 points which is today’s spread. Creighton is a very good team as well but like Xavier, their road performance simply isn’t nearly as strong as when they are at home. The Jays have played only 4 true road games this season and they are 2-2 in those games. Their overall defensive numbers are very good, however on the road they drop off drastically allowing their opponents to hit 47% of their shots. That will be a problem today vs a highly motivated XU team that shoots it well from deep, inside the arc, and at the FT line (78%). Speaking of the charity stripe that could be a huge factor here if XU has a lead late and goes to the line to preserve or extend their lead. The Musketeers simply don’t go on long losing streaks very often. In fact, they have gone on a 3 game or more losing streak only twice since the start of the 2015 season. We like them to break their 2 game losing streak today and get the cover at home. |
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01-11-18 | San Diego -1 v. Pacific | Top | 70-74 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 24 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* San Diego -1 over Pacific, Thursday at 10:00 PM ET We like the better team here coming off a loss. San Diego traveled to St Marys last Saturday to take on a very good team that basically never loses at home. SD was a 13.5 point dog but took St Marys to the wire losing by 7. Despite being a double digit favorite, the Gaels largest lead in the game was 9 points and it was close throughout the 2nd half. That loss dropped San Diego’s road record to 5-2 on the season. The Toreros have a better road record than Pacific has a home record (5-4). We also get Pacific coming off a huge home win topping BYU 67-66 on Saturday which gives us a potential letdown spot. Despite the win, the Tigers are just 2-6 their last 8 wins with their two victories coming by 1 point and the other in OT. They could easily be on an 0-8 run entering this game. Of their 7 wins (7-10 record), only one has come against a team ranked higher than 170 and that was BYU. San Diego, on the other hand, has already beaten 3 teams on the ROAD that rank 113 or higher including a win @ Colorado and @ New Mexico State. The Toreros have a GIANT edge on defense in this game as they rank 39th nationally in defensive efficiency, 3rd nationally in eFG% defense, and 1st in the nation at defending the 3 point line allowing just 23% from deep. Pacific ranks 246th or lower in all 3 of those categories. Offensively the Tigers are a terrible 3 point shooting team making only 30% of their attempts (323rd nationally) so they will get very little if anything from deep facing the top rated team at defending the arc. Pacific has very little home court advantage as they have won just 7 of their last 18 games here. They are averaging 79 PPG at home this year and they give up 79 PPG. On Thursday they face a San Diego team that has not only outscored their teams overall this year but they are also outscoring their opponents on the road. San Diego has been waiting for this one as well after losing both games to Pacific last year, each by just 3 points. USD is 21-8-1 ATS their last 30 road games and the pick up another win and cover on Thursday night. |
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01-11-18 | Northeastern v. College of Charleston -3.5 | 66-82 | Win | 100 | 5 h 51 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON: #512 College of Charleston (-3.5) over Northeastern, 7PM ET - C of C was the preseason pick to win the CAA Conference but have gotten off to a 2-2 start following two straight road losses where they shot poorly. Now the Cougars return home where they are 7-0 overall this season with an average point differential of +12PPG. C of C shoots nearly 46% at home this season and hold foes to just 42% shooting. Northeastern comes into this game 3-1 in conference play and fresh off two straight home wins but their numbers are a little misleading. In CAA play they've beaten James Madison twice who is the worst team in the conference and another win came against Hofstra who is in the bottom half of the league in both offensive and defensive efficiency ratings. Last year on this court Northeastern made a ridiculous shot to win by 1-point and we have to assume Charleston hasn't forgotten that tough beat. Good situation to play on College of Charleston who is 19-2 SU last 21 at home. |
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01-11-18 | NC-Greensboro +8 v. East Tennessee State | Top | 58-68 | Loss | -104 | 5 h 52 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: #583 NC Greensboro (+8) over East Tennessee State, 7PM ET - This is a great college rivalry that you've probably not noticed unless you live near each campus. Last year UNGC won both regular season meetings (83-79 on this court, 72-66 at home) but lost in the SoCon Championship game 74-70 to ETSU. That most recent loss is certainly a small part of the equation tonight in our wagering on NC Greensboro as they are playing with revenge. Just how tight has this series been recently? The last 7 meeting have all been decided by 7-points or less, with ETSU holding a slim 522-519 margin in points in the series since joining the league three seasons ago. Both teams are really good defensively as each holds foes to under 43% shooting with top 80 defensive efficiency ratings. East Tenn State has an advantage in terms of EFG% offense at 54.4% while UNCG sits at 51.1 EFG%. But Greensboro makes up for it by being a better rebounding team. UNCG has an average point differential of just -2PPG on the road this year and has a road win at NC State and played Virginia tough away from home too. This is a huge conference game for these ranked Mid-Major teams and the points are just too many to pass on. |
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01-10-18 | Notre Dame v. Georgia Tech -1 | Top | 53-60 | Win | 100 | 4 h 12 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Georgia Tech -1 over Notre Dame, Wednesday at 7:00 PM ET on ESPNU! This is a great spot to take Ga Tech at home. It will be their third straight home tilt and they are playing well right now. They had an easy time with Yale over the weekend and beat a very good Miami FL team by 10 points here a week ago. They faced this Notre Dame team on the road 12 days ago and lost 68-59 despite holding a lead into the 2nd half. The Jackets now get a chance at quick revenge less than 2 weeks later and the Irish team they face tonight won’t be the same as they one they played 12 days ago. That’s because Notre Dame’s top 2 players won’t be playing in this game. Bonzie Colson and Matt Farrell are both injured and won’t make the trip. Colson is out for 8 weeks due to a foot injury and Farrell, who missed last weekend’s game @ Syracuse, hopes his ankle is ready for this Saturday’s HUGE home game vs UNC. Those two combined for 32 points and 22 rebounds in the win over GT less than 2 weeks ago. UND rallied on Saturday beating Syracuse by 2 points with Farrell sitting out his first game due to injury. Head coach Mike Brey stated after the game that it was one of the bigger wins of his career considering the injury circumstances. We think this game has letdown written all over it. First they face a team they just beat. Second they are off that huge win and play North Carolina at home next. And lastly, as happens often, the Irish stepped up in their first game in the absence of a key player and we think they come back down in their 2nd of back to back road games. Tech has played Notre Dame very tough as they are 9-0-1 ATS their last 10 vs ND. The host controlled this series winning 7 of the last 8 in this series. With this line right around pick-em, we like Tech to win outright. |
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01-09-18 | Wisconsin v. Nebraska UNDER 132 | 59-63 | Win | 100 | 3 h 28 m | Show | |
#547/548 UNDER 132 Wisconsin @ Nebraska, 8:30PM ET - We play UNDER here as the Badgers are one of the slowest and most deliberate offenses in the nation. Out of 351 schools the Badgers are in 348th tempo or pace and take a shot every 20.1 seconds which is the 4th slowest in D1 hoops. Wisconsin averages just 65 possessions per game, only Virginia is slower. Nebraska plays right around the national average in terms of pace of play and are slightly above average in terms of shots per minute. What Nebraska doesn’t do well though is shoot. They are 221st in EFG% offense and average just 75PPG. Defensively both teams are solid as they rank 90th or better in defensive efficiency ratings allowing less than 1.000 points per possession. The Badgers have held opponents to just 41% shooting on the road while Nebraska does the same at home. In the last five meetings these two teams have combined to average just 124PPG if you take out one overtime period. Yes, it’s a low number but the bet here is UNDER! |
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01-09-18 | Central Michigan v. Eastern Michigan UNDER 140 | Top | 74-79 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 48 m | Show |
#519/520 UNDER 140 Central Michigan @ Eastern Michigan, 7PM ET - The numbers are suggesting an UNDER here or lower scoring game between these two Michigan rivals. Both teams rank in the lower half of college basketball in terms of tempo or pass of play. CMU is 269th in tempo and takes a shot every 17.9 seconds every offensive possession. EMU is 202nd with a shot up every 17.4 seconds. So both teams are going to prefer to play slow which is great for our under bet. Secondly, neither is very proficient offensively. Central is 187th in offensive efficiency ratings while Eastern is 198th. Both also have EFG% shooting percentages that rank 187th or worse. So in other words, they both play slow and have a hard time scoring. Both teams are solid defensively as CMU holds foe’s to just 40.7% shooting (47th best in nation) while EMU limits opponents to just 43% shooting (120th). The line opened 135 on this game and was pushed up to 140 which we love as it gives us 5 points of value. The Under has cashed in 7 of the last nine meetings and it’s about to change to 80% after tonight. |
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01-07-18 | William & Mary v. Drexel OVER 158 | Top | 85-63 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 22 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY #835/836 OVER 159.5 William & Mary @ Drexel, 4PM ET – The number on this game might look a little intimidating but in reality, it’s not. Our preditictive analytics suggest 165 or more points in this contest. William & Mary is very efficient offensively averaging 1.125 points per possession which is 41st in the nation. They shoot it EXTREMELY well with the 5th best EFG% offense at 59.8% and they are the d#1 3-point percentage team in college basketball. They have an adjusted tempo of 71.4 which is 93rd and they get a shot up every 16.7 seconds which is 105th. Defensively they are awful! They give up 1.116 points per possession which is 318th out of 351 schools. Their effective FG% defense is 318th! Drexel is not a great offensive or shooting team, but they do get a ton of second chance opportunities and are slightly better than the college average in pace of play. Defensively they are not good either with the 203rd ranked 3-point percentage defense, 229th defensive efficiency rating at 1.061PPP. Drexel is coming off a OT game on Friday and fatigue affects defense more than anything, so they’ll give up points here. In a similar game against UNC Wilmington the Dragons got beat 107-87 or 194 total points. Drexel has given up 82 or more points in three straight, W&M has scored 84 plus in three straight! The bet here is OVER! |
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01-07-18 | College of Charleston v. Towson -2 | Top | 62-73 | Win | 100 | 17 h 50 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Towson -2 over College of Charleston, Sunday at 2:00 PM ET These two met just 9 days ago and C of C came up with a 73-62 win. The Cougars shot 51% in the game and had a big +13 made FT edge. They also made 4 more three pointers and those factors were the difference in the 11 point final margin. Charleston was favored by 4 in that game and now with Towson laying just 2 points less than 10 days later, we feel we’re getting very nice value with the Tigers. This is a very big early season game for Towson as they sit at 1-2 in CAA play while Charleston is 2-1. A loss here not only drops them two behind C of C but would give the Cougars the tiebreaker very early in the season. That’s big as these are two of the favorites in the Colonial. Towson is very good at home with a perfect 5-0 mark. Going back to last season the Tigers have won 13 straight home games. They hit over 50% of their shots here while allowing their opponents to shoot only 35%. They are coming off an easy 18 point home win over UNC Wilmington on Friday and Towson was able to spread their minutes out with 9 players logging double digit minutes. Charleston, on the other hand, is playing their 2nd road game in the span of 40 hours after losing in OT @ Drexel Friday night. The Cougars had 4 starters log over 36 minutes in that loss. Both of these teams have 11 wins on the season, but C of C has played a MUCH easier schedule as the SOS is ranked 323rd nationally (Towson’s SOS is 193rd). 11 of Charleston’s 15 games have been played vs teams ranked lower than 200. We like the Tigers in this spot and with the line where it is, they basically have to simply win at home. |
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01-06-18 | Western Carolina v. Samford -4.5 | 71-85 | Win | 100 | 7 h 10 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 8* Samford -4.5 over Western Carolina, Saturday at 8:00 PM ET We really like this situation for an undervalued Samford team at home. The Bulldogs are just 5-10 on the year but they are much better than their record. The coaches in the Southern Conference picked this team to finish 2nd in the league as they are coming off a solid 20-16 season a year ago and return most of their key players (4 senior starters this year). Samford is coming off a home loss to the top team in the conference, ETSU, in a game where the Bucs shot 60% overall and 55% from beyond the arc. It was definitely not a bad loss so to speak as ETSU had won 9 of their last 10 games with their only loss during that stretch coming by just 2 points @ Xavier. Now the Bulldogs face a Western Carolina team that is 2-0 in the SOCON so this becomes a huge game for Samford who is 1-1 in league play. WCU has played two of the worst teams in the Southern Conference (Citadel & Tenn Chattanooga) to get to their 2-0 record. This is also the Catamounts 3rd straight road game in a one week period. Samford is a good shooting team that hits 51% of their shots at home and they should have a field day vs a WCU defense that is among the worst in the nation (317th nationally in eFG% defense). On the flip side, Western Carolina is a very poor shooting team as they have made only 39% of their shots this season and they are even worse on the road where they make just 38% of their attempts. WCU is coming off a win as a road dog @ Chattanooga (they are now just 5-19 their last 24 road games) while Samford is off a home loss as we discussed. Great spot for Samford and we’ll lay the small number. |
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01-06-18 | Oklahoma v. West Virginia -4.5 | 76-89 | Win | 100 | 7 h 31 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 8* West Virginia -4.5 over Oklahoma, Saturday at 7:15 PM ET on ESPN2 Oklahoma and freshman PG Trae Young have become media darlings and while very good, might be in for trouble here. Young and company now have to face a pressure defense in West Virginia they simply haven’t faced this season. The closest thing to this type of defense the Sooners have faced was their game @ Arkansas who pressures as well, but not nearly as well as WVU. That game happens to be Oklahoma’s only loss this season as the Razors beat them by 9 forcing 19 turnovers. The fact is, the Sooners remain a very young team (308th in experience) with 2 freshmen in the starting line up along with a number of sophomores who are key contributors. They’ve also played only two true road games this season and their most recent was a 90-89 win @ TCU, a game they trailed by 13 points with 10:00 remaining. West Virginia has now won 13 straight games after losing their season opener and that includes a 7 point win here over one of the top teams in the nation, Virginia. The Mountaineers have now won 40 of their last 44 games here at home and one of those losses was here last year to Oklahoma so you can bet this one has a little extra meaning for WVU. In that game they were favored by 16.5 points and lost by 2 in OT. Now laying just 4.5 this year the value is definitely with the Mountaineers. This will be the best defense Oklahoma has faced this year and the toughest road venue this young team has encountered. West Virginia gets the win and cover in this one. |
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01-06-18 | The Citadel v. Wofford OVER 166 | 92-109 | Win | 100 | 6 h 6 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 8* Over 166 Points - The Citadel @ Wofford, Saturday at 7:00 PM ET We just pushed a total wager the other day with Under on The Citadel versus Furman game but the difference is that number was 174. Now we get a more manageable number with the 2nd fastest paced team in college hoops. Citadel clearly wants to play as fast as they can and the result is a lot of points for them and their opponents. Citadel is one of the worst defensive teams in college basketball ranking 326th in defensive efficiency ratings, 339th in EFG% ‘D’ and they give up 96.6PPG which is 350th out of 351 college programs. Wofford is a slower paced team but very efficient ranking in the top 100 in offensive efficiency ratings and 46th in EFG% offense. Wofford just put up 92 points against VMI who is better defensively than Citadel but doesn’t play as fast as them. In two meetings last season the oddsmakers posted totals of 182 and 184 on their two meetings and they combined for 190 and 207 (in OT but 182 in regulation) total points. This one goes OVER the total. |
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01-05-18 | Wisconsin v. Rutgers UNDER 125 | 60-64 | Win | 100 | 5 h 54 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY UNDER 125 Wisconsin Badgers @ Rutgers Scarlet Knights, 7PM ET - This is obviously a very low total but there is still value in the number and here's why. Rutgers is awful offensively averaging just .988 points per possession (264th in nation), an EFG% of 43.6% which is 342nd, 3-point percentage of 29.7% (329), 2-point percentage of 43.3% (327) and they make just 62.5% of their free throws which is 345th of 351 schools. All these horrific number despite playing the 338th easiest schedule in the country. What the Knicks do well though is play defense. They are 30th in defensive efficiency ratings and 15th in EFG% defense. Their overall pace or tempo is 211th which is also in the bottom half of college hoops. Earlier this season they faced a similar team to Wisconsin in terms of tempo in Michigan State and they combined for 114 total points. The Badgers are one of the slowest paced teams in college basketball ranking 346th out of 351 schools. Their average possession length is 20 seconds which is 348th. In other words Wisconsin is very deliberate offensively! The Badgers allow .988 points per possession which is 79th in the nation. Wisconsin is missing two, and potentially three starters for this contest and were forced to play walk-ons in their most recent win over Indiana. Last year when these two teams met on this court they scored 90 total points in regulation, added 25 in OT and still stayed under this number of 125. The bet here is UNDER! |
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01-04-18 | IUPU Ft Wayne v. Oral Roberts OVER 153 | 60-76 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 42 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON: #587/588 OVER 153 IPFW @ Oral Roberts, 8PM ET - This Summit League clash should be a shootout with plenty of points to go Over the number. Last year the Summit was the fastest and most efficient offensive conference in the nation with IPFW the 3rd fastest team in the league and Oral Roberts 5th. This season Oral Roberts has faced just one other conference opponent which was Nebraska Omaha who is similar to IPFW in pace (50th) and average possession length (98th). In that contest Oral Roberts and Nebraska totaled 167 points. Oral Roberts has some poor overall efficiency number offensively and defensively but they've played a brutally tough schedule so their better than their stats. The Mastodons are the 19th fastest paced team in the nation and get a shot up every 15.5 seconds which is 38th fastest. The Dons have scored 88+ points in 4 of their last six games overall and 85+ in 9 of their seventeen. Ft Wayne is 4th in the nation in 3-pointers made and 24th in 3-point attempts per game. The Dons have made 10 or more 3-pointers in 11 games this season. Last year in two meetings these two teams combined for 170 and 193 total points. Oral Roberts on 13-4 Over streak last 17 conference games. IPFW on a 23-9 Over run last 32 in Summit League play. |
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01-04-18 | The Citadel v. Furman UNDER 173 | 67-107 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 11 m | Show | |
ASA play on: UNDER 173 #579 The Citadel vs Furman, 7:30PM ET - Our Math Model has uncovered a huge difference in the Totals today and predicts an Under on this game by a fairly wide margin. There are contrasting styles of play here as the Citadel wants to play fast (2nd in nation in adjusted tempo) compared to Furman who is right around the national average in pace. Playing fast is just about all that Citadel does well though as they are not efficient on the offensive end of the court and have one of the worst EFG%'s in the nation (301st) at 46.4%. They don't shoot free throws well, 3 or 2-pointers. The Bulldogs will have a hard time scoring against a Furman team that is 112th in defensive efficiency ratings and have held their last five foes to just 42.9% shooting. The Paladins will be deliberate on offense and dictate the tempo they want at home. Furman just played a VMI team that is very similar to this Citadel team and they combined for just 144 total points. Our predictive model suggest 157 total points here. BET UNDER! |
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01-04-18 | VMI v. Wofford -15 | Top | 53-92 | Win | 100 | 4 h 43 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: #574 @Wofford (-15) over VMI, 7PM ET - VMI was projected to be the worst team in the SoCon before the season started and there's no reason to think they'll be anything different. VMI opened conference play against Furman (ranked 100th by KenPom) at home and lost by 30. Wofford is ranked lower than Furman but are better than their overall rankings in our opinion. VMI was +12 at home against Furman and are now +15 at Wofford which is not a big enough adjustment by the oddsmakers. The Keydets lost at VCU (again similar to Wofford) by 10 but were down 23 in the second half of that game. VMI is 5-7 SU this year but their five wins have come against teams ranked 329th or worse in D1 hoops. They start 4 sophomores and 1 freshman. Wofford comes into this game 0-1 in conference play following a loss at UNC Greensboro. That 'L' is understandable though as they had upset North Carolina on the road in their previous game. Tonight they'll be focused for a conference home team against an opponent they've beat by 18 points twice last season. The Terriers have played a very tough schedule (18th) and yet have a top 100 offensive efficiency rating and a top 80 effective field goal percentage. On the flip side, VMI has played one of the easiest schedules in the country and yet rank 272nd in overall defensive efficiency rating. This one sets up for a BLOWOUT! |
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01-03-18 | Marquette v. Providence OVER 151 | 95-90 | Win | 100 | 2 h 47 m | Show | |
ASA 9* play OVER 151 #725/726 Marquette @ Providence, **6:30PM ET** - The numbers and efficiency ratings predict a higher scoring game here as these two teams both rank 122 or higher in adjusted tempo (so better than average or 175) and each are highly efficient offensively. Marquette with their sniper lineup is the 18th best EFG% offense in the nation by shooting 57.4%. Providence isn't quite as good with an EFG% of 52.9% but it's top 100. They make up for it with the 61st ranked offensive efficiency numbers at 1.100 points per possession. Marquette has the 18th best OEFF rankings at 1.155PPP. The Friars are better defensively overall but they've given up 70+ points in four straight games and now face a Golden Eagles team that has scored 80+ in 9 of their fourteen games. Marquette has also allowed 80 or more points in 7 of their fourteen games and give up an average of 74.1PPG which ranks them 195th in the country. The bet here is OVER! |
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01-02-18 | IUPU-Indianapolis v. Green Bay -2.5 | Top | 67-63 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 26 m | Show |
ASA play on: #548 UW Green Bay (-2.5) over IUPUI, 8PM ET - Scheduling has a lot to do with his selection as we feel a road-weary IUPUI team will have a tough time rising to the challenge to face UW Green Bay tonight. This will be the Jaguars 10th road game out of the fourteen they've played. This is their 3rd straight road game in a 6-day span after losing at Northern Kentucky Dec 28th and Wright State Dec 30th. Those two teams are eerily similar to this same UW Green Bay team when it comes to rankings and statistics. On the other bench is a Phoenix team that is off two straight home wins over Detroit and Oakland who are also much like IUPUI. Neither team has played great this season as IUPUI has the 213th OEFF ratings compared to UWGB's 319th but the Phoenix have a much better defense at 210 versus the Jags 313th. The Jags 3-point FG defense is literally one of the WORST in college hoops at 342 and UW Green Bay has made 11 Triples in the past two games. IUPUI has been especially bad lately on the defensive end of the court as they've allowed their last five opponents to hit 56% of their FG attempts and only shot 37% themselves. Green Bay's defense has been much better of late holding foes to just 43.7% shooting compared to 45.3% they allow on the season. UWGB has a redshirt junior back in the lineup in Sandy Cohen who has averaged 17.5PPG, 9RPG in four games this season. Green Bay had a positive home differential of +4.1PPG last year and have turned the corner enough to get a win here by a larger margin. |
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01-02-18 | Butler v. Xavier -6.5 | 79-86 | Win | 100 | 3 h 11 m | Show | |
ASA play on: #514 Xavier (-6.5) over Butler, 7PM ET (Fox 1) - Butler is coming off a HUGE win over Villanova and will have a hard time playing at a peak level here for a road game against Xavier. The Bulldogs got their signature win last time out but they lost two other games against similar teams to Xavier (16) in Texas (32) and Maryland (30th). Xavier has gotten off to a 14-1 SU start to the season with impressive wins over Cincinnati and Baylor along with road wins at Wisconsin and Marquette. The big advantage the Musketeers have here is shooting, specifically 3-point shooting. Xavier is the 90th ranked 3-point shooting team in the country while Butler is 250th in 3-point percentage D. The Musketeers have the 15th best effective field goal offense in the nation while the Bulldogs rank 173rd in EFG% defense. Both have very similar efficiency numbers on offense except when it comes to free throws where Xavier holds a decisive edge in attempts and makes. Xavier has owned this series with a 12-3 ATS record the last fifteen meetings and will get a convincing home win here. Lay it! |
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12-31-17 | Texas-Arlington -5 v. Appalachian State | Top | 76-80 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 29 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Texas Arlington -5 over Appalachian State, Sunday at 2:30 PM ET UTA is the highest rated team in the Sun Belt and the favorite to win the conference. They won it last year with a 14-4 record (27-9 overall) and they bring many of their key players back from that team including NBA prospect Kevin Hervey (22 PPG & 9 RPG). We get the Mavs in a great spot here coming off by far their worst performance of the season in a 90-65 loss @ Coastal Carolina, a game that UTA was the favorite. That dropped them to 0-1 in the Sun Belt and we look for them to atone for that embarrassment in this one. They are facing an App State team that is rated as the 8th best team in the Sun Belt, yet they stand at 1-0 in the league after topping Texas State 66-62 on Friday. The Mountaineers are just 6-8 on the season despite playing a fairly easy slate facing just 3 top 100 teams this year (0-3 in those games) and UTA will be their 3rd. App State is a bad defensive team that has allowed half of their opponents this year (7) to reach at least 80 points. They allow over 47% from the field overall and are terrible defending the 3 point line (304th nationally). That will be a problem against a very motivated Arlington team that has a number of players that shoot the ball very well. The Mav offense averages 78 PPG and they should have a field day vs this Mountaineer defense. These two met twice last year and UTA won both by margins of 15 & 16 points. We see a similar result here and we’ll take Texas Arlington to roll. |
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12-30-17 | Fairfield v. Manhattan -3 | Top | 58-61 | Push | 0 | 19 h 12 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Manhattan -3 over Fairfield, Saturday at 7:00 PM ET Manhattan comes in with just a 5-7 record, however they have played all but 3 games away from home. The Jaspers have played just one home game since November 18th and they are perfect 3-0 here at Draddy Gymnasium. They are just happy to finally have a home game where they are 52-26 in their 7 years under head coach Steve Masiello. They’ve also had a week off to get ready for this game after playing a solid game @ Seton Hall, one of the top teams in the Big East. Losing 74-62 last Saturday. Fairfield comes in with a 6-6 mark and they played on Thursday night and are now back on the court just 48 hours later. The Stags have played 3 straight home games and haven’t played a true road game since December 6th. They are 0-4 in true road games this season losing by an average of 13 points per game. Fairfield is not a great shooting team and they are facing a hungry Manhattan team that is very solid defensively ranking in the top 3 in the MAAC in 6 different defensive categories. This is a game the Jaspers have been waiting for after getting swept by Fairfield last season. Despite Fairfield winning here last year, the host has dominated this series winning 9 of the last 10 meetings. Manhattan covers this small number at home on Saturday night. |
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12-30-17 | Wofford v. NC-Greensboro -5.5 | Top | 67-71 | Loss | -107 | 17 h 13 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* UNC Greensboro -5.5 over Wofford, Saturday at 5:00 PM ET Most will remember their most recent game when Wofford pulled the monumental upset @ North Carolina. That was 10 days ago and now the Terriers travel to a very good UNC Greensboro team. If you look at the entire body of work, Wofford had won just 1 of their 4 true road games heading into their game in Chapel Hill. All 3 of their road losses have come by double digits. Their game @ UNC they were the beneficiary of a terrible shooting night by the Heels who hit only 36% from the field and just 28% from beyond the arc. It’s not as if the Terriers have a shut down defensive team as the rank 317th in eFG% defense. It was just a night where the shots weren’t falling for UNC. We anticipate Greensboro taking advantage of that poor defense on Saturday. The Spartans are a very solid 3 point shooting team and 43% of their points come from deep which is 8th nationally. They are facing a Wofford 3 point defense that ranks 340th in the country allowing opponents to hit over 42% of their shots from deep. On the flip side, Wofford also relies heavily on the 3 point shot with 40% of their points coming from beyond the arc. However, UNCG’s defense as a whole is very good and they are fantastic at defending the arc allowing just 28% (11th nationally). This UNCG team won the Southern Conference last year with a 25-10 overall record and they’ve won 24 of their last 29 home games. Wofford caught lightning in a bottle @ UNC 10 days ago but this is a team that has had losing records each of the last 2 seasons. The home team has won 7 straight in this series and we think we get another one here. UNCG is undervalued here while Wofford is overvalued of their win over the Heels. Lay it. |
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12-28-17 | New Mexico State v. Cal-Irvine +5 | Top | 65-60 | Push | 0 | 5 h 36 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* UC Irvine +5 over New Mexico State, Thursday at 10 PM ET UC Irvine is just 5-10 on the season but don’t be deceived by their record. This is a solid team that is projected by many to win the Big West Conference just as they did last year. The problem is, they’ve played a brutal schedule thus far (11th toughest strength of schedule in the nation). The Anteaters have played on 3 home games this season with their most recent coming back on December 2nd. They finished a 5 game road trip last Friday so they’ve had 6 full days to rest up and get ready to finally play a home game where they have won 27 of their last 32 games. Their opponent tonight is New Mexico State who is a very solid team. The Aggies will win a lot of games this year but this is a terrible spot for them. They just played 3 games in 4 days in Hawaii with their most recent coming on Christmas Day. NMSU took the red eye late Monday and their only “normal” practice day this week was yesterday here in Irvine. This is simply a bad spot for the Aggies and they are playing a motivated, rested team. UC Irvine is a proud program that has won 20+ games each of the last 5 seasons and we feel they have a great shot at an outright home win in this game. Even if not, we’re getting points on top of it. Take UC Irvine. |
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12-27-17 | San Diego State v. Wyoming +3 | Top | 69-82 | Win | 100 | 8 h 36 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Wyoming +3 over San Diego State, Wednesday at 9:00 PM ET This one sets up very nicely for the home dog. Wyoming is off a home game where they were favored by 9.5 points vs Northern Colorado and lost. That game was 8 days ago so the Cowboys and their coaches have had some time to stew over that loss, correct mistakes, and put together a great week of practice leading into this conference opener. It was Wyoming’s first home loss of the season (now 6-1 here) and they’ve had a very strong home court over the years rolling up a 26-4 record their last 30 home games. We look for San Diego State to come into this one fat and happy so to speak after their biggest win of the season, a 72-70 home win over Gonzaga. The Aztecs were in a similar situation in that game as they came off a home loss to Cal before bouncing back and pulling the upset over the Zags. San Diego State is 1-1 in true road games this year and they haven’t played a road game this entire month. The Aztecs are under the leadership of new head coach Brian Dutcher as long time coach Steve Fisher has retired. This team was a bit down last year with a 19-14 record which is not great for SDSU standards and they look similar this year with 3 losses on the season, including 2 vs teams ranked lower than 165th nationally. Wyoming is one of the more veteran teams in the MWC with 4 upperclassmen starters who were key members in last year’s 23-15 team. This team will play with a purpose tonight and they have another full week off before their next game. They are a solid defensive team (top 100 in defensive efficiency) and they shoot it well at home (46%). We look for them to pick up the outright win at home. |
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12-23-17 | Richmond v. Boston College -10 | Top | 73-78 | Loss | -115 | 1 h 49 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON: #534 Boston College -10 over Richmond, 1PM ET - Huge disparity here between these two teams in BOTH offensive and defensive efficiency ratings as BC checks in with the 82nd OEFF and 109 DEFF, while Richmond is 251st in OEFF and 224 DEFF. The Spiders don't shoot it well (250th in EFG%) and don't defend it will with the 335th EFG% defense. Richmond is one of the country's worst offensive rebounding teams while BC is one of the best. Boston College is 8-0 SU versus non-major conference opponents this year and is the only team in the nation to beat Duke this year. The Eagles have a point differential of +11PPG and are playing with revenge from a loss to the Spiders last year. Richmond's 4 best players are either freshman or sophomores and won't be up for the task here. BC is winning their home games by an average of 17PPG while Richmond is losing on the road by an average of 24PPG. This sets up to be a BLOWOUT! |
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12-22-17 | Xavier v. Northern Iowa +6.5 | 77-67 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 44 m | Show | |
PLAY ON: Northern Iowa +6.5 over Xavier, Friday at 9:00 PM ET - This is a very dangerous game for the Musketeers. They have been at home since November 24th playing 6 straight games in Cincinnati. On top of that, Xavier is coming off two grueling down to the wire games coming from 22 points down to beat East Tennessee State by 2 points last weekend and then holding off Marshall on Tuesday for a 4 point win. In other words, they are not playing their best basketball right now as struggled at home against those two teams who are ranked 108th and 166th respectively. Now they go to UNI to face a top 100 team and the Musketeers are not at full strength. Three of their top six players are potentially out tonight as starters JP Macura (concussion) & Kaiser Gates (concussion) were out vs Marshall and may not play here. Top reserve Naji Marshall may also sit with an injured back. If there is any question on these players, our guess is head coach Chris Mack will sit them as Xavier opens Big East play next Wednesday @ Marquette. This is a game Northern Iowa has been waiting for. They lost twice to Xavier last year, once in an early season tourney final (67-59) and the other just 6 days later on the road. Now the Panthers have had 6 days off to get ready for this game and they are a perfect 6-0 at home this season. Xavier likes to push the pace but you can bet Northern Iowa will take them out of their comfort zone here as the Panthers rank 349th (out of 351) in pace this year. They also play very good defense ranking 29th nationally in defensive efficiency which will be a problem for Xavier who will most likely be without some of their top scorers. This one has the makings of an upset and we like Northern Iowa as a home underdog. |
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12-21-17 | Buffalo v. Texas A&M -11.5 | Top | 73-89 | Win | 100 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
PLAY ON: TEXAS A&M over Buffalo - When it comes to scheduling there really couldn't be a better situation than this game tonight. Buffalo is coming off a HUGE game at Syracuse on Tuesday in which they competed the entire game and lost by 7. The Bulls clearly had to prepare for the Cuse 2-3 zone which took away time from their regular offense. Now they travel to Texas to face an Aggies team off a close, wake up home win over a good Northern Kentucky team on Tuesday. The Aggies were short several key players in that game and will for sure have backup PG TJ Starks back tonight while forwards Willaims and Jasey are probable. Reed Arena has proven to be one of the hardest places for opponents to get a win as Texas A&M has never lost a non-conference game inside Reed Arena while playing as a ranked team 46-0 SU. The Aggies are one of the nation's elite defensive teams ranking 2nd in defensive efficiency. A&M ranks 3rd nationally in field goal percentage defense, allowing opponents to shoot just 36.0 percent from the field. On the offensive end, Texas A&M has also been solid as well, checking in at 41st in offensive efficiency. A&M leads the nation in defensive rebounds per game and is 3rd nationally in total rebounds per game, 9th in rebound margin. Buffalo is a very good mid-major team and one we'll look to play on in the future but this is just not a good spot for them. The Bulls were just +10.5 points at Syracuse who isn't nearly as good as this Aggies team and in our opinion is over-rated. After a close home game expect a very focused effort tonight in a blowout win! |
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12-21-17 | Cal Poly v. Texas-Arlington -13 | Top | 56-77 | Win | 100 | 27 h 26 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* UT Arlington -13 over Cal Poly, Thursday at 8:00 PM ET We were on UTA on Tuesday at Creighton and picked up a win. This team continues to fly under the radar but they are very good. The Mavericks should be extra motivated here coming off a loss (but cover) on Tuesday @ Creighton. This will be just their 2nd home game since December 2nd and the Mavs have 9 days off after this game so nothing to look ahead to beyond this contest. This is a solid shooting team with 4 players averaging more than 11 PPG led by NBA prospect Kevin Hervey who puts up 24 PPG and 9 RPG. They also have the nation’s leading assist man in point guard Erick Neal. They should tear apart a Cal Poly defense that ranks 277th nationally in defensive efficiency and 344th in the country defending the arc allowing opponents to shoot 44% from 3. Cal Poly comes in having lost 6 of their last 7 games. They have been whipped by 20 points in 3 of their last 4 games including on Saturday when they lost @ SMU by 20, a game they trailed by 29 points late in the 2nd half. The Mustangs are a poor shooting team (257th in eFG%) that has topped 66 points only once in their last 7 games. They will have trouble keeping up here vs a UTA team that has scored at least 80 points in half of their games this season. Cal Poly has won just one of their 6 games away from home this year (road/neutral) and going back a few years they’ve won just 11 of their last 50 games away from home. UT Arlington is the MUCH better team and will come in motivated off a loss. Blowout here. |
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12-20-17 | North Texas +8.5 v. Georgetown | Top | 63-75 | Loss | -108 | 5 h 6 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* North Texas +8.5 over Georgetown, Wednesday at 7:00 PM ET The Hoyas schedule thus far has been a joke ranking 350th most difficult out of 351 teams. They won their first 8 games but didn’t play a team ranked higher than 231st and 7 of their first 8 games were against teams ranked 298th or lower. They finally played a team with a pulse last Saturday and lost in OT at home to Syracuse. They are drastically over valued right now as they have had lines posted on only 6 of their games this year and covered just once. The lone game they covered the Hoyas were favored by 3 and won by 6. We expect Georgetown to have a tough time bouncing back here off their OT home loss to the Orange, especially facing a no name type opponent. However, North Texas should not be taken lightly. They are 7-5 on the season and the Mean Green have played a MUCH tougher schedule than Georgetown. In fact, if you throw out the Hoya’s game vs Syracuse, UNT has played 6 opponents ranked higher than Georgetown’s toughest foe. The Green are a grizzled road team having already played Nebraska, Oklahoma, Georgia Tech, and UT Arlington on the road. Their most recent two road games they gave a very good Oklahoma team all they could handle losing by 10. A few days later they played a very solid UT Arlington team on the road and lost by 5. UNT has some momentum coming into this one having won 3 straight games including a win @ San Diego over the weekend. They are tough to guard with 4 starters averaging more than 10 PPG and this is one of UNT’s circled games for the season. G’Town has been a terrible investment at home covering just 10 of their last 35 games here and we like the Mean Green to give them a run tonight. This one is close and decided very late. Take the points. |
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12-19-17 | Dayton v. St. Mary's -8.5 | Top | 54-69 | Win | 100 | 6 h 22 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* St Mary's -8.5 over Dayton, Tuesday at 10 PM ET Tough spot for Dayton here coming off an OT win at home over Georgia State on Saturday and now making their furthest trip of the year and playing just a few days later. The Flyers had 2 players log over 43 minutes in their game on Saturday and all 5 starters played more than 30 minutes. Dayton hasn’t played a road game since December 3rd and this is just their 2nd true roadie of the season (lost at Mississippi State). The Flyers are working this year under a new head coach Anthony Grant as their head man last year, Archie Miller, moved on to Indiana. The results have been mixed for this team as they are trying to learn a new system. They are 5-5 on the season with their best win coming over Ball State (ranked 118th) by a single point. They were very solid under Miller last year but lost 4 starters from that team and their 5th starter from a year ago now comes off the bench. St Mary’s is 9-2 on the year and their 2 losses have come by a combined 7 points and both were on a neutral court. Unlike Dayton, this St Mary’s team returned nearly every key player from last year’s 29-5 team that made it to the 2nd round of the NCAA before losing by 9 to Arizona. Four starters are back + a few key reserves and a big transfer Neal from New Mexico. They are a fantastic shooting team ranking 15th nationally in eFG% and they sit in the top 35 in 3-point FG%, 2-point FG%, and FT%. They are coming off a rare poor shooting game vs UC Irvine as they hit only 41% of their shots including 31% from 3. Even with that they won by 7. This is the Gaels 4th straight home game and their home record has been astoundingly good having won 40 of their last 43 games here at McKeon Pavilion. These two met last year in Dayton and St Mary’s won the game 57-55. The Gaels led by 14 in that game with just over 3:00 minutes remaining, didn’t score a basket in the final 6:00 minutes and still won, on the road, vs a Dayton team that is far better than this year’s version. We like St Mary’s to roll at home tonight. |
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12-19-17 | Wright State v. Missouri State -9 | Top | 50-66 | Win | 100 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Missouri State -9 over Wright State, Tuesday at 8:00 PM ET We like this situation with the better team (Missouri State) is at home and coming off a loss as a favorite. The Bears most recent game was @ Oral Roberts and they played their worst game of the season losing outright as a 12 point favorite. Now they’ve had 9 days off and they should have some extra motivation coming off that loss. Mizzou State was on an 8 game winning streak heading into that game. On the flip side, we have a road opponent in Wright State who is coming off an upset win on Saturday beating Toledo as a 5-point dog. That game was won at the FT line where Wright State made 22 FT’s to just 7 for the Rockets. Toledo is a decent team but not on the same level as the Raiders opponent tonight. Missouri State is a very good defensive team (36th nationally in eFG% defense) and we look for a poor shooting Wright State team (277th in eFG% offense) to struggle scoring in this one. The Bears have held half of their opponents (6) to 60 points or less and we wouldn’t be at all surprised if they do the same here. This is just the third top 100 team that Wright State has faced this year (0-2 in the first two games) and the Raiders are 1-3 on the road this season. This will also be the highest ranked opponent Wright State (7-4 record) has faced this season with Mizzou State ranked 78th. These two have one common opponent and that is Western Kentucky (ranked 85th nationally). They both played the Hilltoppers on the road and Missouri State won by 5 while Wright lost by 18. The Bears are rested while Wright is playing their 2nd road game in 4 days and they have a trip to Georgia Tech on Friday. We like Missouri State to roll up a big win in this game. |
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12-18-17 | Texas-Arlington +14.5 v. Creighton | Top | 81-90 | Win | 100 | 6 h 18 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Texas Arlington +14.5 over Creighton, Monday at 9:00 PM ET on Fox Sports One UTA is an under the radar team that is experienced and very good. They bring back most of their key players from last year’s team that went 27-9. The Mavs start 5 seniors including NBA prospect Kevin Hervey who is 6’8 and averaging 24 PPG and 9 rebounds per game. They also have a fantastic point guard in Erick Neal who leads the nation in assists. Neal sat out their most recent game due to a personal situation but is expected to start tonight. They have plenty of size to compete with high major teams as they go 7’0 (Va Tech transfer), 6’8 (Hervey), 6’7 in their starting lineup and their first big off the bench is 6’9. The Mavericks have an 8-3 record and have been very competitive on the road as you’d expect them to be with a successful, veteran team. They’ve played 3 true road games this year winning @ BYU, losing by 1-point @ Alabama, and losing by 4 @ Northern Iowa which was a 1-point game with under 1:00 minute remaining. They were 12-7 on the road last year including wins @ Texas and @ St Mary’s. Creighton is 8-2 on the year yet just 3-2 vs top 100 teams. The Blue Jays wins over top 100 teams have come by margins of 4, 10, and 11 points. The one very comparable opponent as far as ratings go was vs Nebraska who is rated 85th and Arlington is 79th. In their game vs Nebraska the Blue Jays won by 10 but it was much closer than that. The Huskers led by 8 in the 2nd half and it was a tight game down the stretch and the final margin of 10 was Creighton’s largest of the game. These two match up fairly evenly when it comes to efficiency stats and we feel there is no reason UTA should be getting this many points. Arlington has covered 8 in a row as a dog (3-0 ATS this year) dating back to last season and this one should be close throughout. |
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12-16-17 | Oregon v. Fresno State -2 | Top | 68-61 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 57 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Fresno State -2 over Oregon, Saturday at 6:00 PM ET - One CBS Sports Network This will be the first time this year that the Ducks have had to leave the state of Oregon. They have played 11 games thus far with 8 being on their home court and 3 coming down the road in Portland. Even with the favorable schedule the Ducks still have 3 losses on the season. One of those setbacks came on their home court to Boise State, a team from the same conference as Fresno (Mountain West), and a team we rate almost equal to the Bulldogs. Oregon is a far cry from the team that made the Final 4 last year and 6 of their top 7 players have moved on. Their only top 7 returner is guard Peyton Pritchard and he is paired with 4 new starters, 3 of whom are transfers. They are still try to mesh as a team. They are 0-3 vs top 100 teams and their highest rated win came in OT vs DePaul. And remember, they haven’t played a road game yet are still struggling. This is a huge home game for a very solid Fresno team. They’ve been looking forward to this one as they rarely get to host a “Power 5” type team, to use a football reference. Their last was back in 2015 when California came to town. The Bulldogs are 9-2 on the season and one of the more experienced teams in the country with 5 upperclassmen in their top 6 and they shoot the ball very well with a 57% eFG rate (22nd in the nation). They are tough to guard as they have 5 players averaging at least 10 PPG. They could be without one of those players (Hopkins) who has a back injury but they are deep & experienced enough to get by without him here. This Fresno team has won 27 of their last 29 home games and covered 19 of their last 26 at home. Oregon was one of the best teams in the nation and topped Fresno at home last year. The Bulldogs now return the favor vs an Oregon team that is still finding their way and working on their team chemistry with a slew of new faces. If they’ve been inconsistent at home, we can’t imagine they’ll be efficient in their first road game. Take Fresno. |
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12-16-17 | Indiana State v. Western Kentucky -10 | 65-81 | Win | 100 | 17 h 47 m | Show | |
ASA PLAY ON 8* Western Kentucky -10 over Indiana State, Saturday at 12 PM ET This Western Kentucky team is much better than their 6-4 record might indicate. They’ve already beaten two top 30 teams (Purdue & SMU) and they gave #1 Villanova all they could handle in an 8 points loss – Villanova’s closest win this season. The Hilltoppers will be properly motivated here coming off back to back losses. They lost @ Ohio by 5 last weekend and then lost by 1-point @ Wisconsin on Wednesday. WKU is just happy to be back at home as they haven’t played on their home court in 2 weeks. They are 4-1 here this year with an opening season loss to a very solid Missouri State team to go along with 4 double digit wins. Indiana State shocked Indiana to open the season but have since gone just 4-5. Their win over the Hoosiers to open the season was impressive, however they caught a young IU team at a perfect time with a new system and new coach. Since the Indiana win, the Sycamores have played 4 games away from home (1 true away & 3 neutral) and they are 0-4 in those games. Their four wins besides IU came against Indianapolis, Missouri St Louis, Air Force, and UWGB – all ranked 260th or lower. Western KY will be the highest ranked team ISU has played since mid November when the played and lost big to both Auburn and Old Dominion. The Toppers have a number of D1 transfers (from Kansas & Virginia among others) that are high level players. They are meshing very well early on, thus the upsets over very good teams. They shoot the 3 very well at 43% ranking them 6th nationally in that category. WKU also is very athletic defensively and they create turnovers on 22% of their opponents offensive possessions which is not a good match up for an ISU team that turns the ball over 21% of the time. They are very tough to guard with 6 players averaging double digits in scoring. Off two losses this becomes a huge home game for WKU and we like them to roll to a big win. |
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12-13-17 | Western Kentucky +6 v. Wisconsin | Top | 80-81 | Win | 100 | 7 h 24 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Western Kentucky +6 over Wisconsin, Wednesday at 8:00 PM ET on Fox Sports One We follow Wisconsin very closely as we are right down the road from the Kohl Center (3 miles away) and have had season tickets since that building opened. The Badgers were young and inexperienced coming into the season and we felt that some growing pains were in order early in the year. They’ve played a very tough schedule and hung close in a number of losses. We felt at full strength they would continue to improve and be a solid team by mid-season. However, they are no longer at full strength. Starting PG Trice is out with a broken foot and word is it’s possibly for the entire season. Back-up guard Kobe King injured his knee in practice last Friday and is out for the season. Wisconsin now has 2 scholarship guards on the entire roster. Freshman Brad Davison is solid but played 39 minutes in their loss here to Marquette on Saturday and he is injured as well with a bad shoulder. The Badgers will be forced to play 2 walk-ons in the back court for significant minutes moving forward. On top of that, it’s finals week at UW which is always a distraction. WKY is a very tough opponent for this Badger team. They are athletic and can shoot the 3 very well ranking 10th nationally at 42.4% from beyond the arc. The Badgers have struggled all year to guard the 3 point line ranking 199th in that category. Marquette lit them up for 14 three pointers on Saturday and many were wide open looks. The Hilltoppers are also a veteran team with 4 upperclassmen in the starting line-up. This is a huge game for them facing a name opponent with a chance to pull the road upset. It’s not as if this WKY team hasn’t already shown they can hang with the best teams in the nation as they’ve already beaten Purdue (one of the top two teams in the Big Ten) and SMU while playing #1 Villanova very tight losing by just 8. We get Wisconsin has had a very strong home court advantage over the years but this isn’t team isn’t at the same level as past editions. They’ve already been blown out, not just lost but blown out, at home twice this season. We give the Hilltoppers a decent shot to pull the upset and if they do lose it should be close. We’re on Western Kentucky here. |
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12-12-17 | Mississippi State v. Cincinnati UNDER 138.5 | Top | 50-65 | Win | 100 | 5 h 23 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 138.5 Points - Mississippi State @ Cincinnati, Tuesday at 7:00 PM ET on ESPN2 Two defensive minded teams here and we expect a grinder. MSU comes in allowing their opponents to shoot only 37% and the Bearcats do them one better giving up just 36% from the field. That ranks these two teams 17th and 11th nationally in FG% defense respectively. The Bulldogs have held 7 of their 8 opponents this season to under 39% from the field. The Bearcats have held 7 of their 9 opponents this season to 67 points or less and 5 of those opponents failed to top 54 points. Their lone stinker defensively came against cross town rival Xavier two games ago and it wasn’t a huge surprise as the Musketeers are a fast paced team that shoots the ball as well as anyone in the nation (55% ranking 2nd nationally). They bounced back last Saturday after that poor performance and held a Florida team that was averaging over 90 PPG to just 66. Neither is a great shooting team and MSU is really poor from beyond the arc hitting just 29% (311th nationally). On top of that when these teams go to the line, it’s not a given as both make under 70% of their freebies. The Bearcats have gone UNDER in 5 of their 7 games with a posted total and Mississippi State has gone UNDER in 3 of their 4 games with posted totals. Cincy has gone UNDER the number in a whopping 50 of their last 70 non-conference games and we look for another here. This one should be low scoring and stay well UNDER this number. |
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12-09-17 | Illinois v. UNLV OVER 157.5 | Top | 82-89 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 157.5 Points - Illinois @ UNLV, Saturday at 11:59 PM ET These two teams want to play fast and it's going to lead to a very high scoring game. The Illini are the 17th fastest paced team in the country at 78.8 possessions per game while UNLV is 8th at 80.9. The Runnin Rebels are also the 29th most efficient offense in college hoops at 1.135 points per possession. Illinois is not as efficient offensively as UNLV but they still average 1.036PPP which is good for 128th. What shot the Illini do miss they tend to clean up the boards and get plenty of second chance opportunities with an offensive rebounding rate that is 44th in the nation. UNLV is 33rd in NCAA with an effective FG% of 56.4 and also do a fantastic job on the O-boards with the 9th best rebounding percentage in the country. UNLV has scored 85 or more points in every game but one this year, 6 of nine have been 91+. The Illini have topped 80 points in 7 of their ten games this season. Bet the OVER in this game. |
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