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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-27-15 | Packers +4.5 v. Cardinals | 8-38 | Loss | -110 | 44 h 3 m | Show | |
Green Bay +4.5        Green Bay is a team in December that I won't fade against. We've been 5-0 for/against them ATS this season backing them against the Vikings, Lions, Cowboys, Seahawks and once against the Broncos. They've been 17-4 since 2011 in the months of December and are getting road value here simply for the fact that the Cardinals have been a dominant team at home. But, with two games left and Arizona up two games on the Packers for a bye there is a chance for the Packers to close out and hurdle the Cardinals with help from Seattle in week seventeen. Get ready for the first playoff atmosphere type game since the Broncos/Patriots a few weeks back. Back Aaron $$ Rodgers and the Packers Sunday who are getting too many points. |
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12-27-15 | Texans -5 v. Titans | 34-6 | Win | 100 | 41 h 38 m | Show | |
Houston -5 Â Â Â Â Â Â Â The QB carousel of the Texans has been hard to watch over the course of this season. But Brandon Weeden starting in this spot may be the conservative need the Texans need. I feel they've stirred away from the running game a bit over the last six weeks. Weeden showed against the Eagles that he can run a simplistic conservative style with a protected defense. That's the recipe here as the Texans defense led by JJ Watt is on a mission to break their funk of missing out on the playoffs |
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12-26-15 | Nebraska +6.5 v. UCLA | 37-29 | Win | 100 | 25 h 37 m | Show | |
Nebraska +6.5 Â Â Â Â Â Â Â A 5-7 team does not belong in bowl season but I believe we'll see a worthy effort from the Corn Huskers. Don't forget Mike Riley has a Pac-12 background from 03-14 as Oregon State Coach. Also, Nebraska has been a great team at playing close games. Five of their losses were by five points or less and all seven by ten or less. UCLA like Memphis defense is too much of an eyesore to back in bowl season. |
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12-26-15 | Redskins v. Eagles -3 | 38-24 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 4 m | Show | |
Philadelphia Eagles -3        Each time I've counted out Philadelphia they've showed the toughness to battle back. We did get a win last week with Arizona against them. Luckily for Philadelphia they still have a fighting chance to win the NFC East and make the playoffs. One of the best first to second half turn around performances that still led to a loss was the Eagles against the Redskins earlier this season. Trailing 13-0 the Eagles came out of the half with a quick surge. They did fall short but look for the strengths they discovered in the second half of that game to come to the forefront here. Grab the Eagles Saturday. |
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12-26-15 | Indiana v. Duke +3 | 41-44 | Win | 100 | 19 h 58 m | Show | |
Duke +3 Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Indiana has now crept up to a three-point favorite. Yes, they did have some formidable games in the Big Ten against the Buckeyes and Spartans. But there are certain teams in bowl season that nearly a full month of preparation poses a disadvantage. The Hoosiers are one in my book as they play a style of play game to game that never had any wrinkles. Look for Duke who can win in an array of ways to come out as an underdog winner. |
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12-26-15 | Southern Miss v. Washington -8.5 | 31-44 | Win | 100 | 18 h 53 m | Show | |
Washington -8.5 Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Chris Peterson and people in Washington know that they have a legitimate top 15 team heading into next season. Southern Miss has immense talent but this matchup just doesn't suit them. The Huskies close the season with two wins to become bowl eligible and will have the type of performance that likely will place them as a top fifteen 2016 team. |
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12-26-15 | Connecticut +5 v. Marshall | 10-16 | Loss | -104 | 15 h 36 m | Show | |
UConn +5 Â Â Â Â Â Â Â UConn has the look of one of those 6-6 teams that puts on a performance far superior than what they showcased in the regular season. Teams from smaller conferences that are juggernauts point wise often are trap teams in bowl scenarios. Look for UConn to be prepared and deliver as an underdog |
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12-21-15 | Lions v. Saints -2.5 | 35-27 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 21 m | Show | |
Was going to leave today alone but we'll play the Saints. New Orleans -2.5 The Saints abysmal season has continued to drop their value ATS. Once a guaranteed 6 point or higher favorite at home, they've become normal to be low favorites at home now. That is the case today against a Lions team that has fallen back to Earth after a late October-early November hot streak.   I like how the Saints have not mailed in their season and have begun to look like a team that will carry momentum into 2016. While the Lions are who they are. Grab the Saints as a MNF mid-day add. |
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12-20-15 | Cardinals -3.5 v. Eagles | 40-17 | Win | 100 | 47 h 20 m | Show | |
Arizona Cardinals -3.5 Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Arizona has answered the bell time and time again in big spots ATS. Around a month ago they created distant separation in their division by defeating the Seahawks on the road. This team has thoughts of side stepping woes that caused their team to falter in 2013 and 2014. The Eagles may have won two games in a row but I do not believe their offense is capable of matching Arizona's. We'll grab the Cardinals Sunday night. |
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12-20-15 | Broncos +7 v. Steelers | 27-34 | Push | 0 | 43 h 15 m | Show | |
Denver Broncos +7.5 Â Â Â Â Â Â Â The Steelers have won with so much ease that it seems like they're the AFC leader en route to a bye week. Yet that's not the case. They're 8-5 and have faced off against backup quarterbacks in consecutive weeks. Brock Osweiler will be the third but the difference for Denver is they have the top defense in the NFL. Look for the Broncos to bring the Steelers offense down to Earth a bit. We'll grab the 7.5. |
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12-20-15 | Chiefs v. Ravens +7 | 34-14 | Loss | -115 | 40 h 50 m | Show | |
Baltimore Ravens +7 Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Baltimore has had a disastrous season after years of winning football. A losing record may not look good overall but surprisingly they've been a decent ATS team. Getting seven at home against a Chiefs team that is red-hot is all the inflation I need. Look for Baltimore to play another tightly contested game. Win/loss they'll fall within the seven point spread. |
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12-14-15 | Giants v. Dolphins +1.5 | 31-24 | Loss | -110 | 74 h 56 m | Show | |
12/14 05:30 PMÂ Â NFLÂ Â Â (133) NEW YORK GIANTSÂ VSÂ (134) MIAMI DOLPHINSÂ (12/11 03:26 PM)Â edit
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12-13-15 | Cowboys v. Packers -6.5 | 7-28 | Win | 100 | 46 h 51 m | Show | |
12/13 01:25 PMÂ Â NFLÂ Â Â (129) DALLAS COWBOYSÂ VSÂ (130) GREEN BAY PACKERSÂ (12/11 03:24 PM)Â edit
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12-13-15 | Redskins +3.5 v. Bears | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 42 h 27 m | Show | |
12/13 10:00 AMÂ Â NFLÂ Â Â (113) WASHINGTON REDSKINSÂ VSÂ (114) CHICAGO BEARSÂ (12/11 03:31 PM)Â edit
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12-13-15 | Titans +7 v. Jets | 8-30 | Loss | -101 | 7 h 2 m | Show | |
12/13 10:00 AMÂ Â NFLÂ Â Â (123) TENNESSEE TITANSÂ VSÂ (124) NEW YORK JETSÂ edit
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12-07-15 | Cowboys +4.5 v. Redskins | 19-16 | Win | 100 | 74 h 3 m | Show | |
Dallas +4.5 The Redskins have been as dominant as you can possibly be at home, with all five of their wins coming at home. Their only loss was week one against Miami in what was a winnable game. Yet I like the Cowboys in this spot. For once the high hopes of the Cowboys have darted and been tossed out the window. That takes the pressure off of the team that had no chance with Romo out for practically the entire season. Lets not forget Matt Cassell was also thrown into the fire after being traded by Buffalo with the demotion of Brandon Weeden. Now he's had time to learn the system and also sat on the sideline for nearly two starts. He is use to a backup role and I believe coming off the bench will serve him better this game. I do not expect the Redskins to bypass their typical game managing game plan with Kirk Cousins, especially with the division lead. Look for the Cowboys to grab this cover. |
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12-06-15 | Panthers v. Saints +7 | 41-38 | Win | 100 | 46 h 59 m | Show | |
Saints +7.5 Â Â Â Â Â Â Â It looks like the oddsmakers have finally set a steep enough line on the undefeated Panthers to back the opposing team. The Saints may have had the best performance by an offense this season against the Carolina Panthers and that came with their backup starting in McCown. They moved the football well all game and had a chance to win late before an interception. Even though Carolina has been winning they've shown blemishes on offense that have been side stepped because of their defense. The defense can't always bail you out. Expect the Saints to battle hard in this one and cover a high number. |
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12-06-15 | Chiefs v. Raiders +3 | 34-20 | Loss | -117 | 46 h 38 m | Show | |
Raiders +3 The Raiders and Chiefs have been two of the toughest teams to figure out this season. Kansas City has stormed back into the AFC playoff picture while the Raiders are a team that has shown poise and unexpected growth. I'm always a believer in the month of December that you can find value ATS pursuing wild card teams. Separating the believers from the non-believers. KC I just can't buy. Their five wins in a row need to be looked at under a microscope. They annihilated a Lions team in Europe that immediately made changes upon coming home. Pittsburgh started third string quarterback Landry Jones and Denver started an obviously hindered Peyton Manning. San Diego has been in landslide mode and Buffalo just didn't have enough on the road in KC.  They've also won by opening up the offense for Alex Smith, which has not been his strength over his entire career. Look for Oakland to utilize their home crowd and for Carr to put up solid numbers to pull off the ATS cover. |
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12-05-15 | Troy v. UL-Lafayette -2 | 41-17 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 35 m | Show | |
UL Lafayette -2 Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Fans of the Rajun Cajuns are unaccustomed to the struggles they've witnessed from their team this season. The offense has sputtered in close losses to South Alabama and New Mexico State that was topped off by a 21-point loss last week to Appalachian State. To end a three game skid they'll look to do so against Troy which has also had a less than stellar season. The personnel is there for Lafayette. Expect them to grind out another close game but this time pull out the W against a Troy team that will not have an answer for Elijah McGuire. |
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12-05-15 | New Mexico State v. UL-Monroe +2 | 35-42 | Win | 100 | 21 h 35 m | Show | |
UL Monroe +2 Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Monroe has been an absolute untrustworthy team for the month of November ATS, and has had an abysmal year with a record of 1-11. Yet I like the effort in the way they battled back from a big deficit last week to Hawaii to cover in a two-point loss. Typically you would not find value on a 1-11 team that's just a two-point underdog at home. Monroe will battle hard in this one and get their second victory of the season with a win over New Mexico State which should be relenting on defense |
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12-05-15 | Temple +6 v. Houston | 13-24 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 34 m | Show | |
Temple +6 Â Â Â Â Â Â Â The Houston Cougars and Temple Owls seemed like they were on track to battle in the championship as undefeated teams just a bit over a month ago. Two losses by the Owls and a recent loss to UConn by Houston changed all of that. Houston responded in great fashion a week ago with the return of Greg Ward Jr. to the lineup from injury. Yet often times people forget just how much can be lost by missing two games of action. This is a championship game against a veteran team in the Temple Owls. Expect Ward to show some rust and for the Owls to continue to show proper strides they've showcased the last several weeks. Grab the Owls. |
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12-03-15 | Packers -3 v. Lions | 27-23 | Win | 102 | 32 h 51 m | Show | |
Green Bay -3 Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Thursday the Packers travel on the road to try and avenge a home loss to the Lions. Just a little over a month ago the Packers were 6-0 but have stumbled losing four of their last five games. Still at 7-4 the Packers are in prime position to go on a December run with games against the Lions, Cowboys, and Raiders before playoff position games against the Cardinals and Vikings. Look for September and October's normalcy to return from the 0-5 Lions and 6-0 Packers as the Packers start a December run. |
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11-30-15 | Ravens +3 v. Browns | 33-27 | Win | 102 | 75 h 31 m | Show | |
Baltimore +3 Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Even though Baltimore will be without Joe Flacco the remainder of the season I'm not going to overshadow that for the prime issues surrounding Cleveland. It's never good when you bounce back and forth with quarterbacks because of injuries and off the field issues. Lets not forget the Browns have been in this same position last year with Hoyer/Manziel and the year prior with Weeden/Hoyer. It has to effect a team, especially a defense that's been poor all year. Baltimore may have a lot of losses but they've battled in every game. We'll grab the Ravens Monday. |
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11-29-15 | Steelers v. Seahawks -3.5 | 30-39 | Win | 100 | 46 h 26 m | Show | |
Seattle Seahawks -3.5 Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Value has finally shifted enough for me to back the Seahawks Sunday. Pittsburgh may be coming off a bye but that's an overrated alleged handicapping advantage. At this point of the season you can find prime value by forecasting playoff teams. This is a great spot for Seattle as they face the Vikings the following week. After weeks of inconsistency offensively and defensively both sides of the football are starting to ascend on the field. That goes a long way for a team that has lost key games by slim margins. Home field and improved play has me on the Seahawks side Sunday. |
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11-29-15 | Saints v. Texans -3 | 6-24 | Win | 100 | 43 h 50 m | Show | |
Houston Texans -3 Â Â Â Â Â Â Â The firing of defensive coordinator Rob Ryan is not going to turn around anything. Personnel is still horrid for the Saints defense and throughout Drew Brees career he has struggled against physical defensive lines. The Texans bring that too the table which will key Houston. Brian Hoyer has been an underrated starter against mediocre teams. A few seasons ago he had the Browns rolling before a season ending knee injury and did the same last year before facing stiffer competition. The Saints are a below average team that will not have answers for the Texans defensive front. Grab the Texans. |
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11-28-15 | Notre Dame +4 v. Stanford | 36-38 | Win | 100 | 49 h 16 m | Show | |
Notre Dame plus 4 Early post before line movement---Subscribers analysis will be added when other plays are finalized. |
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11-28-15 | Florida State v. Florida +2.5 | 27-2 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 32 m | Show | |
Florida +2.5 Â Â Â Â Â Â Â If Florida had not laid an egg last week against Florida Atlantic this game likely would be Florida -1. I'll side with value here as even though Sean MacGuire is starter he is doing it in a different capacity. No longer has Coach Jimbo Fisher said it's something he'll evaluate. Now with the permanent job I believe MacGuire may handle the pressure a bit differently. Florida will get enough done on offense to cover the 2.5. |
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11-28-15 | Texas State v. Idaho -3 | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 23 h 3 m | Show | |
Idaho -3 Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â We will go to the Sun Belt yet again as Idaho takes on Texas State. Texas State has been a peculiar team because they have a solid quarterback in Jones as well as senior running back Robert Lowe. But they're just not the same potent combination that was witnessed a season ago. Scoring the football has been difficult and I believe that'll bode to the home favorite in Idaho. Grab Idaho -3. |
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11-27-15 | Baylor -1 v. TCU | 21-28 | Loss | -105 | 2 h 23 m | Show | |
Baylor -1 Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Baylor may have lost high hopes of a BCS playoff just two weeks ago but that doesn't take away their talent advantage over TCU. TCU played a spirited game last week without Boykin but even with him back you have to wonder how they're going to keep up with the potent Baylor Bears. We'll back the Bears here today to make things interesting if Oklahoma loses Saturday. |
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11-26-15 | Panthers -103 v. Cowboys | 33-14 | Win | 100 | 5 h 57 m | Show | |
Play Carolina--Pick Em The stakes may be high for the Dallas Cowboys but I can't see Tony Romo being the sole reason for a turn around to the Cowboys season. Miami beat themselves last week not the Dallas Cowboys, as Miami surrendered poor penalties that extended drives, gave up big play third downs, turned the football over, and had a lackluster effort offensively. That won't be the case against a Carolina Panthers team that has remained disciplined on both sides of the football. While most of America sees value on the Cowboys on turkey day I'll side with the undefeated Panthers. |
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11-23-15 | Bills +7 v. Patriots | 13-20 | Push | 0 | 70 h 38 m | Show | |
Buffalo +7.5 Â Â Â Â Â Â Â The undefeated Patriots nearly lost a week ago and are having to adjust without two key players. Julian Edelman is out for several weeks and Dion Lewis out for the year. Tom Brady does not have the safety valve out of the backfield he has had in recent years with Woodhead, Shane Vereen, and Lewis this season. I believe that'll cause problems and allow Buffalo to apply more pressure than they did in week two. Remember, in week two the point spread shifted from -2 on the Patriots side to the Bills favored by a point before kickoff. I'm not falling for an 8.5 point swing with the Bills improving and Patriots hurting with injuries. Play the Bills |
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11-22-15 | Packers +1 v. Vikings | 30-13 | Win | 100 | 42 h 32 m | Show | |
Green Bay +1 Â Â Â Â Â Â Â I've commented a few times this season that the Packers are notorious for 2-3 game in-season lulls. It's happened time and time again for Aaron Rodgers and Mike Mccarthy. Now that the bandwagon has shifted against them I believe they'll snap out of it like they have in years past. Minnesota has piled up the wins but they're doing so with a meager point per game average offensively. Rodgers will get things back and order for the Packers Sunday |
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11-22-15 | Colts +5.5 v. Falcons | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 38 h 7 m | Show | |
Indianapolis +5.5 Â Â Â Â Â Â Â The focus for Indianapolis is how they're going to perform with Andrew Luck out of the lineup. It should be but my focus on this play will be the opposing starting quarterback in Matt Ryan. Ryan's play has been horrific over the last four to five games, and I don't see him snapping out of it anytime soon. Atlanta's defense just is not strong enough to support an offense struggling. The difference with Matt Hasselbeck in the lineup over Luck is the turnover battle. The Colts will win that battle and get the cover Sunday. |
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11-22-15 | Cowboys v. Dolphins +1 | 24-14 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 9 m | Show | |
Play Miami +1 Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Tony Romo is going to come back tomorrow and start the Cowboys playoffs surge. Not exactly. Although the Cowboys do welcome Romo back it's going to be tough on the veteran quarterback to upstart a team that has lost severe confidence on both sides of the football. The team Romo is stepping into the huddle with is not remotely the team it was in week two or last year when Romo came back after missing the Cardinals game. Miami has worked too hard on offense and defense under Dan Campbell to lose to an unconfident Cowboys team at home. This is not last season and a miracle to the Cowboys season is not going to happen. |
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11-21-15 | Michigan State +14 v. Ohio State | 17-14 | Win | 100 | 39 h 29 m | Show | |
(371) Michigan State vs (372) Ohio State            Can Michigan State put a thorn to the Buckeyes on Saturday? This of course could have been a classic matchup of undefeated teams if it were not for the Spartans meltdown against the Wolverines. I ask you, what would the point spread be if that play did not happen to give the Wolverines the win over the Spartans? Definitely not near two touchdowns. Though the Spartans have not looked the part of a highly ranked team neither have the Buckeyes. Expect the Spartans to battle in this game as if they could take that last play back against the Wolverines. Grab Michigan State plus the 14. Play Michigan State plus 14 |
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11-21-15 | Houston v. Connecticut +10 | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 23 h 16 m | Show | |
UConn plus 10 Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Last week IÂ avoided posting Oregon as a moneyline play against Stanford. This week I'll recommend a 50/50 wager on UConn ML and with the points +10. There's a reason why the undefeated Cougars continue to get zero respect from the polls and BCS chances. They have a run and gun look that has succeeded in the American conference but they don't pass the eye test. The Huskies have made strides and this is the type of game that can get them to a bowl and carry momentum into next season. Grab the Huskies |
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11-21-15 | South Alabama v. Georgia State -2.5 | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 22 h 45 m | Show | |
Georgia State -2.5 Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Last week I bypassed the Sun Belt but we'll head back into it this week as South Alabama travels to Georgia State. South Alabama has been a hot potato team that is off their first winning streak of the season. Still, their defense is a major concern of mine heading on the road against a Georgia State team that has underachieved this season. Expect Georgia State to capitalize at home and take advantage of a South Alabama team that is subpar. |
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11-21-15 | Purdue +23 v. Iowa | 20-40 | Win | 100 | 20 h 45 m | Show | |
Purdue        From time to time value just sticks out. Iowa's undefeated season has rose their spread value sky high. But over their last three games their only cover was by a half point over Indiana. High lines against the Gophers and Maryland did not come close to inflated spreads. As this line continues to climb from 20 to now 23 I have to step in and root for 2-8 Purdue, who did play a competitive game against a similar style team in Michigan State. |
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11-15-15 | Vikings +3 v. Raiders | 30-14 | Win | 100 | 75 h 12 m | Show | |
Play Vikings +3 |
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11-15-15 | Saints v. Redskins | 14-47 | Win | 100 | 39 h 31 m | Show | |
Redskins Pick            The Saints have been a puzzling team over the last month. They've been able to win games against the Giants, Colts, and Falcons thanks to turnovers and rather poor play from opposing teams. Washington has the perception as one of the worst teams in football but have been tough at home. They've won three of their four games and played well enough to defeat Miami in week one. We'll back the Redskins to dictate the style of play Sunday and grab the win over the Saints. |
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11-14-15 | Oklahoma v. Baylor -2 | 44-34 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 33 m | Show | |
Baylor -2 Baylor faces the toughest part of their season starting with a Saturday matchup against Oklahoma. Losing Seth Russell will surely have an impact on the Bears but they feel they've improved enough defensively to match their potent offense. Oklahoma will be a true test but I'll side with the Bears to pull out the win and cover Saturday. |
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11-14-15 | Oregon +10 v. Stanford | 38-36 | Win | 100 | 55 h 37 m | Show | |
Play Oregon +10 |
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11-14-15 | Temple -2.5 v. South Florida | 23-44 | Loss | -112 | 21 h 32 m | Show | |
Play Temple +3 Â Â Â Â Â Â Â South Florida has made stellar improvements to turn around a football program that looked in deep trouble the last four seasons. Still, I believe this is a good spot to back a veteran Temple team. Three point road favorites usually pushes a mind set of trap. Instead here I love the value. Back the Owls who should keep winning off of having a turnover advantage. |
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11-14-15 | NC State +10 v. Florida State | 17-34 | Loss | -106 | 85 h 49 m | Show | |
Play NC State plus 10 |
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11-12-15 | Bills +3 v. Jets | 22-17 | Win | 100 | 36 h 51 m | Show | |
Play Bills +3 |
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11-09-15 | Bears +4 v. Chargers | 22-19 | Win | 100 | 80 h 55 m | Show | |
Chicago Bears            I rarely play any games ATS for or against the Chargers. But I like the prime time setup for Monday’s game. Both the Bears and Chargers have lost countless games in dramatic fashion. While the praise has been more centered on quarterback Philip Rivers, people are ignoring the quiet production of Jay Cutler. He is making less mistakes by playing more within the offense. The loss of Matt Forte does hurt but Cutler will be able to utilize Alshon Jeffrey and Bennett against a pour Chargers defense. Grab the Bears Monday. Play Bears plus 4 |
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11-08-15 | Eagles v. Cowboys +3 | 33-27 | Loss | -110 | 56 h 55 m | Show | |
Dallas Cowboys Has Chip Kelly corrected his team’s inefficiencies? No. Dallas may have lost five games in a row but with a win Sunday they’ll be right back in the thick of the NFC East. There last win was over the Eagles in which they controlled the time of possession 2 to 1 with over forty minutes on their side. As many issues as the Cowboys have they have a quiet confidence against the Eagles. Grab Dallas in a favorable position of plus 3. Play Cowboys plus 3 |
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11-08-15 | Falcons v. 49ers +7 | 16-17 | Win | 100 | 52 h 31 m | Show | |
San Francisco 49ers +7.5 In any profession a shakeup amongst a team that’s lagged gets reenergized with new pieces. Kaepernick’s poor stretch over the last three weeks produced dismal results. Add to that the 49ers traded Vernon Davis. A season that has little hope left for it will turn to quarterback Blaine Gabbert. I expect the 49ers to play adequately against the Falcons with new life. It likely won’t last beyond this week but this a great opportunity to buy the difference from 5.5 to 7.5. Is a two point spread increase worthy for players such as Kaep and Davis? Not in my opinion. Grab the points. |
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11-08-15 | Giants -2.5 v. Bucs | 32-18 | Win | 100 | 51 h 30 m | Show | |
Giants -2.5        The string of success by Tampa Bay is enough to lure people on them this weekend against the Giants. Not me. Jameis Winston is still a rookie and has benefitted from a great run game and poor opposing offensive execution. Atlanta practically gifted the Bucs the win last week thanks to Matt Ryan’s awful play. New York may be on a bit of a slide themselves but they’re as potent as they come offensively. Odell Beckham and company should have a big day against the Buccaneers. Expect Winston to look a bit more like a rookie Sunday. |
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11-07-15 | UL-Monroe +10 v. Troy | 14-51 | Loss | -115 | 27 h 58 m | Show | |
UL Monroe +10        For the second consecutive week we’ll be on UL Monroe as double digit underdogs. Troy is catching far too much love after a blowout win on the road as 3 point favorites over New Mexico State and taking Appalachian State to three overtime’s as three touchdown underdogs last week. Monroe is a stubborn team that hangs in games. Troy will come back down to Earth from their impactful two weeks. Grab Monroe. |
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11-07-15 | Cincinnati +9.5 v. Houston | 30-33 | Win | 100 | 27 h 57 m | Show | |
Cincinnati +9.5        All great college offenses meet a heads on challenge once or twice a season. You just can’t win every week in college football in landslide fashion with offense. Cincinnati is a confident team that’s capable of sustaining matching offense of the Cougars for four quarters. Cougars sophomore quarterback Greg Ward Jr. is still adapting and may not be ready for a closer than anticipated game. That’ll factor in to the spread as this should be closer to 5.5-6 points. Grab the Bearcats. |
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11-07-15 | UL-Lafayette -2 v. Georgia State | 23-21 | Push | 0 | 25 h 29 m | Show | |
Louisiana Lafayette -2        We were on the opposite side of the Rajun Cajuns last week for a cover. Saturday I look for them to play a strong game against Georgia State. In consecutive weeks they’ve found themselves in a hole because of poor first half play. That can be corrected and I expect Lafayette to finally play a complete game and grab the win on the road. Play Lafayette. |
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11-07-15 | Stanford v. Colorado +16.5 | 42-10 | Loss | -102 | 24 h 27 m | Show | |
Colorado +16.5        Full season college subscribers have noticed my love for the Buffaloes. They’ve been on my board countless times this season and there’s a main reason why. Colorado has been the doormat of the Pac-12 since entering and with how strong the Pac-12 is this season oddsmakers are overlooking the Buffaloes. Each week there is value and it’s to be had again at home against Stanford. Note the odd start time of 10AM PT for this Pac-12 matchup. Shaky wins by a top ten team don’t prosper the following week. Usually it’ll take a half to get things refigured out. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Colorado have a small lead here at half and hang on to cover a sizeable spread in the second. Grab Colorado. |
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11-02-15 | Colts +7 v. Panthers | 26-29 | Win | 100 | 70 h 38 m | Show | |
Indianapolis +7.5 The drastic jump of oddsmakers hike in value on the Panthers is alarming. Yes they’ve won ten straight but they have not been a team that necessarily blows teams out. I think the value here is on the Colts. For as bad as they’ve played the last two weeks they still have only lost by a touchdown or less. Don’t fall for the back to back prime time lure on the Panthers. Grab the Colts. |
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11-01-15 | Packers v. Broncos +3 | 10-29 | Win | 100 | 46 h 49 m | Show | |
Denver plus 3 Shop around to find the plus 3’s out there, or if you have to buy the hook. This should be everything it’s planned to be and more. Green Bay has the best quarterback in the league and a defense that has shown tremendous growth. The headliner that has drawn Green Bay as a road favorite is the poor play of Peyton Manning. Hey folks, get over it. Manning is who is he at this stage in his career and his team has adjusted. Frankly it’s shocking to me that people still have not seen the odd value shift from the Broncos a season ago to now. Last year they were favored by near double digits every game with a horrid defense and failed to cover repeatedly. This season they’ve been low favorites the majority of games with a top tier defense and keep covering the number. I’ll back them at home as the same recipe of strong defense and timely offense will key the win for the Broncos. |
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11-01-15 | 49ers +8 v. Rams | 6-27 | Loss | -110 | 38 h 17 m | Show | |
Play San Francisco plus 8 Todd Gurley has been as impressive of a player over the last month of the NFL season. But concern has to be high with the play of Nick Foles. Foles has not had a solid outing since the Rams win over the Cardinals. There are strong concerns with San Francisco and how they’ll operate with Carlos Hyde out of the lineup. Hyde has been playing through an injury anyways which makes him being out less of an issue. Some quarterbacks have a quiet confidence against certain opponents and Colin Kaepernick is one against the Rams. He has had some of his best performances against the Rams and I expect him to showcase that confidence Sunday. Buy the 49ers on an inflated line. |
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10-31-15 | Arizona +4.5 v. Washington | 3-49 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 18 m | Show | |
Rich Rod and the Arizona Wildcats have been as potent of an offense as there is in the Pac-12. The problem has been the defenses vulnerability to stop anything. Heading up to Washington they need to show the veteran capabilities this team possesses. Washington has a young defense that has struggled against the run and will have Browning returning from injury at quarterback. This is the type of game where Arizona’s offense should finally be able to outpace their poor defense. Grab the Wildcats. Play Arizona +4.5 |
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10-31-15 | Stanford -10.5 v. Washington State | 30-28 | Loss | -105 | 34 h 49 m | Show | |
Saturday night the Washington State Cougars will look to try and knock off the surging Stanford Cardinal in the Pac-12. The Cougars have just one loss in conference and could tie the Cardinal with a win Saturday. Luke Falk has been dominant at quarterback with just four interceptions and over twenty touchdowns. On the road this should be a true tough test for the Cardinal. But they’re the only team in college football I see getting better as the season goes on. They’ll have too much balance that will over power the Cougars. Grab Stanford. Play Stanford -10.5 |
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10-31-15 | Notre Dame v. Temple +11 | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 31 h 29 m | Show | |
The undefeated Temple Owls will do all they can Saturday to keep their undefeated record intact. To do so they’ll have to play mistake free football and execute at their highest level in all phases of special teams, defense, and offense. For how great Notre Dame has been this season they’ve been a turnover prone team. That will be the difference in landing our cover Saturday as Temple will play like a true top twenty five team. Play Temple + 11 |
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10-31-15 | UL-Monroe +11.5 v. UL-Lafayette | 24-30 | Win | 100 | 28 h 16 m | Show | |
As potent as Louisiana Lafayette are on offense they are just as deadly and porous on defense. Louisiana Monroe has struggled as they transition with a true freshman quarterback in Garrett Smith. This should be the type of game he can settle in as he is a dual threat quarterback. Even though Monroe is 1-6 overall they’ve fought in several games including against Tulsa and Alabama. We’ll grab them plus 11.5 Saturday. Play UL Monroe +11.5 |
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10-31-15 | Virginia Tech -2 v. Boston College | 26-10 | Win | 100 | 24 h 46 m | Show | |
Neither of these teams light it up on offense. Virginia Tech may look back at this season and say what if. They’ve lost several close games that were winnable and now likely will not be in position to make a bowl game. But I believe they’re further ahead in development than Boston College. The Hokies will be able to shut down Boston College’s simplistic offense and get the win and cover Saturday morning. Play Virginia Tech -2.5 |
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10-30-15 | Louisville v. Wake Forest +12 | 20-19 | Win | 100 | 6 h 20 m | Show | |
Play Wake Forest +12 Â Â Â Â Â Â Â In the ACC Friday night the Louisville Cardinal will look to finally play mistake free football against Wake Forest. This is a curious line even against a rusty young Wake Forest team. I just have not seen enough from the Cardinal offensively or discipline wise to back them as double digit favorites. Wake Forest will stay in this game and cover the number. |
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10-30-15 | East Carolina -6 v. Connecticut | 13-31 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 52 m | Show | |
Play East Carolina -6 UConn is definitely a program moving upward after years of poor football play. They’ve stayed in a few games this season against teams such as Missouri, BYU, and South Florida. I’m not sold on them finishing the season out strong. They have a look of a young team that is growing but will falter as the season ends. East Carolina should be able to take prime advantage of UConn even on the road. Grab East Carolina |
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10-29-15 | Oregon +2.5 v. Arizona State | 61-55 | Win | 105 | 10 h 53 m | Show | |
Play Oregon +2.5 A Pac-12 battle takes place Thursday night in Tempe, Arizona between Arizona State and the Oregon Ducks. These two have not squared off since 2012's Thursday matchup in which the Ducks blew out Arizona State. This is a chance for both teams to get back on the right path and control their destiny for an at-large bowl game. I like the versatility Adams Jr. brings to the Ducks offense. He'll be very tough for the Devils to adjust too defensively, especially with the all out blitzes Todd Graham loves to bring. It's hard to believe the Ducks are in an underdog role for the second consecutive game but I'll grab them once again. Play Oregon plus 2.5 |
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10-26-15 | Baltimore Ravens +8.5 v. Arizona Cardinals | 18-26 | Win | 100 | 75 h 36 m | Show | |
      Baltimore Ravens plus 8.5         Baltimore has had issues galore to for the first half of the NFL season. But to say they should be 8.5 point underdogs is a bit of a stretch. Arizona has stumbled in two of their last three games and seem to be having issues on both sides of the football. All of Baltimore's  losses have been close affairs  and winnable games in the fourth quarter. As stated in a prior column, Arizona's strong home record under Carson Palmer and Bruce Arians at 12-3 is impressive. Before this season the Cardinals were only 4.5 point favorites or higher just once during that span. Oddsmaker's have adjusted to the public and sharp money that has been coming in on Arizona this season. Grab Baltimore to play another competitive game win or lose and stay within the number. |
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10-25-15 | Philadelphia Eagles +3 v. Carolina Panthers | 16-27 | Loss | -105 | 51 h 36 m | Show | |
Philadelphia Eagles +3             Earlier in the week my mindset was to take the streaking Carolina Panthers. But upon further review I’ll grab the points with the Philadelphia Eagles. Sometimes matchups just don’t bode well for an opponent and I believe that to be the case for Carolina here. Tempo has been dictated by the Panthers in the majority of games this season especially in second halves. Second halves are where the Eagles thrive on Chip Kelly’s adjustments. The Eagles have momentum and confidence with the NFC East division in their hands after a poor start. Look for the Eagles to play a great brand of football and play similar to last year’s performance against the Panthers. |
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10-25-15 | Oakland Raiders +4 v. San Diego Chargers | 37-29 | Win | 100 | 46 h 12 m | Show | |
            Oakland Raiders +4       Philip Rivers has done a fantastic job at this stage in his career at keeping the Chargers afloat. But sooner or later it has to take its toll on the veteran. He has an inefficient run game and the Chargers defense is extremely vulnerable. Oakland can utilize a simplistic game plan with the run and passing attack to keep this game close. San Diego has difficulty pulling away from teams and that’ll leave a fourth quarter opportunity for the Raiders. Expect a kneel down cover or the Raiders to win this outright. |
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10-24-15 | Colorado +2 v. Oregon State | 17-13 | Win | 100 | 34 h 8 m | Show | |
In the late Pac-12 matchups we’ll overlook Stanford vs Washington for the Colorado vs Oregon State game. Both teams are on the bottom level of the Pac-12 but have ingredients in place to move upward. Colorado has the edge in leadership while Oregon State has an abundance of freshman learning on the go. All of the veterans on Colorado have endured an abysmal record in the Pac-12, with the majority being landslide losses to top level teams. Winning a conference game means the world to the upperclassmen and head coach of Colorado. It won’t be easy but we’ll look for the Buffaloes to grab the road win and cover the small line of plus 2. Play Colorado +2 |
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10-24-15 | South Alabama v. Texas State -3 | 18-36 | Win | 100 | 31 h 36 m | Show | |
In this late evening Sun Belt conference matchup we’ll back the home team in Texas State against a reeling South Alabama team. South Alabama is coming off extended rest after losing to Arkansas State in a Tuesday matchup a week and a half ago. They’ve had poor play lately from the quarterback position. Texas State is a disciplined enough team at home to have the edge in the turnover battle. That’ll be the difference in the final result and land us a cover with Texas State. Play Texas State -3 |
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10-24-15 | Indiana v. Michigan State -16.5 | 26-52 | Win | 100 | 18 h 58 m | Show | |
Play Michigan State -16.5 Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Michigan State has been horrid ATS and is coming off of a freak win against Michigan. The win finally shook their ATS woes but also kept them in the hunt for a BCS championship. I think it will spark the Spartans against an Indiana team that has been playing above their capability. The Spartans style of play bodes well for an ATS cover here. A few big plays with their offense and a grind it out style that pours it on in the second half. Grab Michigan State |
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10-24-15 | Clemson v. Miami (Fla) +7.5 | 58-0 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 37 m | Show | |
Clemson is one of those teams that yearly has had the possibility of representing in a BCS bowl. But ACC conference play usually targets them for a critical loss. While the Miami Hurricane program is no where to the level it use to be, it is by no means a down program. They have talent and will be ready to battle Clemson in hopes of derailing their season. 7.5 is far too many points in my opinion. Look for the Hurricane to battle just as hard as they did against Florida State. Grab the 7.5. Play Miami +7.5 |
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10-24-15 | Houston -21.5 v. Central Florida | 59-10 | Win | 100 | 23 h 27 m | Show | |
It’s not often you see a road team as steep favorites. Yet that’s the case with Houston. Houston made the switch to quarterback Greg Ward Jr. in this exact matchup last season. John O’Korn has since transferred to Michigan, but the move has proved to be one of the top decisions any division one program has made. Ward’s averaging over 70% on pass completions and over 100 yards rushing in each game. Those believing that Central Florida will be able to respond in a big way better take a look at the poor play during their 0-7 start. A loss to FCS Furman and a mountain of points giving up to UConn and Tulane. Grab Houston. Play Houston -21.5 |
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10-20-15 | UL-Lafayette +7.5 v. Arkansas State | 27-37 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 2 m | Show | |
10/20 05:00 PMÂ Â CFÂ Â Â (301) UL - LAFAYETTEÂ VSÂ (302) ARKANSAS STATEÂ edit
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10-19-15 | NY Giants +5 v. Philadelphia Eagles | 7-27 | Loss | -105 | 75 h 22 m | Show | |
Giants +5        The NY Giants travel to face their division rivals the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday night football. The division has had its typical parity with the Giants leading the division by one game over Dallas, Philadelphia, and Washington. To see the Giants as a road dog here is quite surprising. They do have some injury concerns but their defense has been playing well and the Eagles just have not been consistent enough to back on this steep of a line. Eli Manning and Tom Coughlin together are 30-14-2 ATS in the month of October. They’ll grab another cover here Monday night. |
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10-18-15 | New England Patriots v. Indianapolis Colts +9.5 | 34-27 | Win | 100 | 51 h 23 m | Show | |
Colts +9.5        This spread in August was -3 on the Colts side against the Patriots. It opened at 7 and has shot up to as high as 11 in some markets. There comes a point in time in any market where saturation becomes too much. This is probably that highest moment of any game this NFL season. For the first time this season the Patriots are not receiving buyback on the opposing team, as was the case against the Steelers, Bills, Jaguars, and Cowboys. Boiling down those opponents they faced a backup quarterback in Brandon Weeden, a first year starter in Tyrod Taylor, a struggling second year quarterback in Blake Bortles, and did not cover week one against the Steelers.  The Colts will finally play a competitive game against the Patriots and cover this inflated number. |
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10-18-15 | Carolina Panthers +7.5 v. Seattle Seahawks | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 39 h 8 m | Show | |
10/18 01:05 PMÂ Â NFLÂ Â Â (267) CAROLINA PANTHERSÂ VSÂ (268) SEATTLE SEAHAWKSÂ edit
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10-18-15 | Cincinnati Bengals v. Buffalo Bills +3 | 34-21 | Loss | -110 | 44 h 54 m | Show | |
Play Buffalo plus 3.5        The Bengals are undefeated thanks to superb play in fourth quarters against the Seahawks, Ravens, and Chargers. Sooner or later their way of waiting until the fourth quarter to pull off games is going to bite them. Even with the Bills quarterback situation uncertain I like the Bills home edge here. They’ve won in the past with backup quarterbacks in emergency spot starts with a lengthy list of quarterbacks. One of the reasons for that is their home field edge. The defense, which has been subpar for the past few weeks, should be ready to respond and the Bills will have LeSean Mccoy and possibly Sammy Watkins back. Grab the Bills plus 3.5. |
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10-17-15 | Oregon +3 v. Washington | 26-20 | Win | 100 | 21 h 22 m | Show | |
10/17 07:30 PMÂ Â CFÂ Â Â (213) OREGONÂ VSÂ (214) WASHINGTONÂ edit
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10-17-15 | Arizona v. Colorado +7.5 | 38-31 | Win | 100 | 32 h 26 m | Show | |
Colorado +7.5        Colorado is a team that was on the rise in bettors’ eyes just two weeks ago. Then they stumbled at home as 7.5 point dogs to Oregon and suffered another ATS loss last week to Arizona State. A game in which bettors moved the line by two full points to 16.5 to 17 before kickoff. This week though they have a much better matchup against the Arizona Wildcats. Arizona’s defense is one of the worst in the Pac-12 which should keep this game close. The Buffaloes always mark a game or two in Pac-12 play that they believe they can win, and this is one for a building football program. Grab the Buffaloes |
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10-17-15 | Louisville v. Florida State -7 | 21-41 | Win | 100 | 23 h 25 m | Show | |
FSU -7 Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Everett Golson has had his woes against tough blitzing defenses throughout his career. Yet the burden at Florida State is not as high on his shoulders as it was at Notre Dame. The Seminoles an rush the football against the Cardinals aggressive defense and then open up the passing game. On offense Louisville turns the football over far too frequently to support them on the road against a potent team such as FSU. Grab FSU. |
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10-16-15 | Cincinnati +6 v. BYU | 24-38 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 27 m | Show | |
Tonight in Utah, BYU will look to get back on a winning track after stumbling in late September.  BYU’s defense has been worse as the season has stretched and the offense is still working out kinks with freshman quarterback Mangum. That is not a quality recipe to have against the potent offense of the Bearcats. They’ll be able to score against the Cougars and should get a solid cover for us Friday night. |
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10-15-15 | UCLA v. Stanford -7 | 35-56 | Win | 100 | 7 h 45 m | Show | |
10/15 07:30 PMÂ Â CFÂ Â Â (109) UCLAÂ VSÂ (110) STANFORDÂ edit
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10-11-15 | San Francisco 49ers +7 v. NY Giants | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 102 h 58 m | Show | |
10/11 05:30 PMÂ Â NFLÂ Â Â (473) SAN FRANCISCO 49ERSÂ VSÂ (474) NEW YORK GIANTSÂ edit
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10-11-15 | New England Patriots v. Dallas Cowboys +10 | 30-6 | Loss | -130 | 98 h 54 m | Show | |
10/11 01:25 PMÂ Â NFLÂ Â Â (469) NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTSÂ VSÂ (470) DALLAS COWBOYSÂ edit
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10-11-15 | Arizona Cardinals -2.5 v. Detroit Lions | 42-17 | Win | 100 | 98 h 35 m | Show | |
10/11 01:05 PMÂ Â NFLÂ Â Â (467) ARIZONA CARDINALSÂ VSÂ (468) DETROIT LIONSÂ edit |
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10-11-15 | Jacksonville Jaguars +3 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 31-38 | Loss | -115 | 95 h 31 m | Show | |
10/11 10:00 AMÂ Â NFLÂ Â Â (451) JACKSONVILLE JAGUARSÂ VSÂ (452) TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERSÂ edit
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10-11-15 | Seattle Seahawks +3 v. Cincinnati Bengals | 24-27 | Push | 0 | 95 h 30 m | Show | |
10/11 10:00 AMÂ Â NFLÂ Â Â (465) SEATTLE SEAHAWKSÂ VSÂ (466) CINCINNATI BENGALSÂ edit
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10-10-15 | California +7.5 v. Utah | 24-30 | Win | 100 | 36 h 39 m | Show | |
10/10 07:00 PMÂ Â CFÂ Â Â (379) CALIFORNIAÂ VSÂ (380) UTAHÂ edit
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10-10-15 | Troy +30.5 v. Mississippi State | 17-45 | Win | 100 | 29 h 25 m | Show | |
10/10 01:00 PMÂ Â CFÂ Â Â (349) TROYÂ VSÂ (350) MISSISSIPPI STATEÂ edit
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10-10-15 | Wisconsin +1.5 v. Nebraska | 23-21 | Win | 100 | 29 h 54 m | Show | |
10/10 12:30 PMÂ Â CFÂ Â Â (403) WISCONSINÂ VSÂ (404) NEBRASKAÂ edit
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10-09-15 | Southern Miss v. Marshall -3 | 10-31 | Win | 100 | 8 h 26 m | Show | |
10/09 04:00 PMÂ Â CFÂ Â Â (307) SO MISSISSIPPIÂ VSÂ (308) MARSHALLÂ edit
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10-08-15 | Washington +17 v. USC | 17-12 | Win | 100 | 32 h 0 m | Show | |
Play Washington Both the Trojans and Huskies are coming off bye weeks. Yet I expect the younger Huskies to be ready against a Trojans team that has hit their ceiling offensively. 17 points is far too many to side on the Trojans side. Grab the Huskies |
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10-05-15 | Detroit Lions +10.5 v. Seattle Seahawks | 10-13 | Win | 100 | 79 h 21 m | Show | |
10/05 05:30 PMÂ Â NFLÂ Â Â (277) DETROIT LIONSÂ VSÂ (278) SEATTLE SEAHAWKSÂ edit
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10-05-15 | Dallas Cowboys v. New Orleans Saints -3 | 20-26 | Win | 100 | 24 h 14 m | Show | |
10/04 05:30 PMÂ Â NFLÂ Â Â (275) DALLAS COWBOYSÂ VSÂ (276) NEW ORLEANS SAINTSÂ edit
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10-04-15 | NY Giants v. Buffalo Bills -5 | 24-10 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 53 m | Show | |
10/04 10:00 AMÂ Â NFLÂ Â Â (259) NEW YORK GIANTSÂ VSÂ (260) BUFFALO BILLSÂ edit
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10-04-15 | Kansas City Chiefs v. Cincinnati Bengals -4 | 21-36 | Win | 100 | 48 h 52 m | Show | |
10/04 10:00 AMÂ Â NFLÂ Â Â (265) KANSAS CITY CHIEFSÂ VSÂ (266) CINCINNATI BENGALSÂ edit
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10-04-15 | Philadelphia Eagles v. Washington Redskins +3 | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 13 h 56 m | Show | |
Redskins plus 3 The daunting task of Sunday hails with a Washington Redskins franchise on the brink of another failure. They'll try and avoid a 1-3 start by defeating the Philadelphia Eagles. Philadelphia avoided an 0-3 start a week ago against the Jets but did so yet again with poor play from quarterback Sam Bradford. Bradford threw for under 130 yards and has yet to shown the skills Chip Kelly needs from him. Washington is coming off extended rest and should be able to control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the football. Teams have shown an ability to respond well off of a Thursday night loss over the years. Grab Washington to stay in this game and get the field goal cover over their division rivals. |
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10-03-15 | Arizona +12.5 v. Stanford | 17-55 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 3 m | Show | |
Play Arizona plus 12.5 At night in the Pac-12 we will look to grab Arizona as near two touchdown underdogs against Stanford. Arizona is coming off a horrible loss to UCLA at home but I see this spot as a nice matchup for Arizona. Stanford's defense has given up several points to start the season especially in first halfs. That does well for Arizona's spread offense. Grab the points here. |
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10-03-15 | Colorado State +4 v. Utah State | 18-33 | Loss | -105 | 30 h 53 m | Show | |
10/03 04:00 PMÂ Â CFÂ Â Â (207) COLORADO STATEÂ VSÂ (208) UTAH STATEÂ edit
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10-03-15 | Ole Miss v. Florida +7 | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show | |
Play Florida plus 7 Ole Miss surged to the top with a win over Alabama. Watching that game anyone would have seen the continuous mental lapses by Alabama. To start the game they used an unproven quarterback that wasn't ready for the big stage, and Alabama's defense kept giving up big play after big play. At home Florida will pose a challenge against Ole Miss. Backing Ole Miss as a full touchdown favorite will bite you in the tail. Grab the points with Florida. |
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