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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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07-07-16 | Pistons +6 v. Heat | 71-58 | Win | 100 | 3 h 17 m | Show | |
Miami Heat Detroit has been devalued in Orlando as I had them as the top team overall. Today, they'll face their toughest challenge against a Miami Heat team that continues to feature both Justice Winslow and Josh Richardson getting quality minutes. That likely will continue with the fact the Dwayne Wade has signed with the Bulls. Yet, were playing the spread here and we'll jump on a three point spread line movement from three to six in the Heat's favor. Detroit's stayed close and won all their games thus far with a solid young core. They'll give the Heat a challenge but expect the Heat's squad to over power and close above the closing number of six. |
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07-05-16 | Clippers -5 v. Knicks | 84-92 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 30 m | Show | |
LA Clippers The Clippers have under performed in their first two games against the Heat and Thunder. Before the tournament I had them ranked as the second best team overall and the Knicks the worst. Nothing has changed with the Knicks who have been blown out their first two games. Perhaps they'll be more competitive here against a winless Clippers team. Yet, look for the Clippers to finally start playing a higher level of basketball after showcasing glimpses in their latest loss to the Thunder. Grab the Clippers |
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07-04-16 | Yankees v. White Sox +109 | 2-8 | Win | 109 | 4 h 0 m | Show | |
Chicago White Sox Today, we'll grab the underdog White Sox who have caught some money their way overnight. I believe it's the proper value as James Shields steps on the mound against CC Sabathia of the Yankees. CC is coming off a loss and rough outing against the Texas Rangers, which shot his ERA over 3 runs for the first time since May. Look for the rise to continue against a White Sox team that is a contact laden club. James Shields who has had undeniable woes since coming to the White Sox has settled in over his last two starts. A positive sign in his last start were five strikeouts against the Twins. With his confidence back this is a nice spot to back the White Sox as small dogs. |
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07-04-16 | Mavs v. Orlando White | 85-92 | Win | 100 | 3 h 39 m | Show | |
Orlando Magic White Today, we'll take the Orlando Magic White against the Dallas Mavericks. Both had a day off Sunday after playing their first games on Saturday. Saturday, the Mavericks lost a heart breaker to the OKC Thunder, while the Orlando Magic White blew out their opponent in Charlotte. I expect the balance of the Orlando Magic White to continue to excel today. In the interior they may have the best scorer of the Orlando Summer League with Arinze Onuaku. They also under achieved from the perimeter in their initial game. Expect even more scoring from them against a Dallas team that may get support off a close last second loss in their first matchup against OKC. Take Orlando Magic White. |
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07-03-16 | Clippers v. Thunder -5 | 72-81 | Win | 100 | 7 h 40 m | Show | |
Oklahoma City Thunder The Thunder rode Cameron Payne, Mitch McGary, and others to a thrilling last second victory over the Dallas Mavericks. Flashy scoring paved the way as the roster did just enough to out duel a Mavericks team that fought hard down eight points late in the third quarter. The Clippers on the other hand came into the Orlando tournament with the second-best roster in my opinion. Yet, sometimes a roster and team synergy are two vastly different elements. I did not like the team chemistry showcased in yesterday's loss to the Heat. Look for their flat effort to continue Sunday and for the Thunder's dynamic scoring to outpace the Clippers. |
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07-03-16 | Royals v. Phillies -115 | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 5 h 59 m | Show | |
Philadelphia Phillies |
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07-03-16 | Pacers v. Hornets +5.5 | 70-80 | Win | 100 | 3 h 31 m | Show | |
Charlotte Yesterday we hit on the Pacers who were shockingly underdogs. Today, they find themselves a favorite against a Charlotte team that fell short to Orlando White by five points. I like the effort Orlando White showcased in yesterday's near comeback. Today they'll take on an Indiana team riding an extreme high from Joseph Young, Glenn Robinson III, and Rakeem Christmas. All three in my opinion did enough in game one to settle their NBA nerves down (rosters for next season). Expect a come down to Earth game from the Pacers and for the Hornets to capitalize. Grab the Hornets. |
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07-02-16 | Orlando Blue v. Pacers +2.5 | 66-93 | Win | 100 | 3 h 41 m | Show | |
Indiana Pacers This is an actual game I anticipated earlier in the week. On paper I believed the Pacers should be 4.5-5 point favorites. With the Orlando Blue team favored by three points I'll jump on the other side on this one. The Pacers made some key moves in free agency and via the draft that may divide up the relationship with young talent in Rakeem Christmas and Joe Young. They're literally on the clock to prove their worth. Coupled with Stephan Hicks an underrated scorer from Cal-State Northridge, Julian Jacobs (USC), and Nate Wolters (former Bucks draft pick) and Indiana should have no problems scoring. This is a day one oddsmaker misread in my book. Take the Pacers |
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07-02-16 | Hornets v. Orlando White -3 | 74-79 | Win | 100 | 1 h 32 m | Show | |
Orlando White The second game in summer league play for Saturday features a veteran laden Orlando White team against a young Hornets squad. Orlando's veterans include 30 year old Justin Dentmon and a carry overs from the Atlantic 10 in Patricio Garino, Treveon Graham, and Jordan Sibert. On the other hand the Charlotte Hornets have young talent including Bobcats draft choice last year in Aaron Harrison along with UNLV's early exit in Goodluck Okonoboh. Look for the veterans in Orlando White to use their poise to buckle down defensively when needed and close out this game in style to cover a small three point margin. |
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07-01-16 | Giants v. Diamondbacks +150 | 6-4 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 11 m | Show | |
Arizona Friday, the Arizona Diamondbacks look to bounce back from a rough series against the Phillies as they host the San Francisco Giants. Thus far on the season both match ups between the two teams have featured series sweeps. The Giants swept May's series while the Diamondbacks won four in April. Thursday, the Giants avoided a road sweep against the A's. The showcase belonged to their bats which produced twelve runs to lead the way. Their display combined with Johnny Cuetto's stellar 11-1 record is hard to ignore. Arizona, must get Shelby Miller comfortable early after another rough outing in his last start against Colorado. Yet, the Diamondbacks offense is where I see value on the underdog. They're hitting the ball well and I see them continuing to hit the lumber against Cuetto who is coming off a six earned run performance against the Giants. Take the Dbacks. |
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07-01-16 | Cubs v. Mets -102 | 2-10 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show | |
NY Mets The Mets took one from the Cubs last night in dramatic fashion. First, they received three seventh inning runs when their offense looked dead in the water. Then, they received the 27th save of the season from flawless Jeurys Familia. Friday, they'll look to keep their momentum in stride against the potent Cubs. While strong hitting may be lacking for the Mets, they have stud Jacob DeGrom on the mound. Perhaps no pitcher in MLB is as devalued as DeGrom who boasts a 2.67 ERA with a 3-4 record. Tough losses or no decisions have plagued DeGrom this season but this is a spot where he can put the Mets on his back. The Cubs recent three wins over the Reds overshadowed the losses that occurred prior in six of seven games. Pitching has waned and the Mets now have a bit of team confidence at the plate after last night's heroic come back. Grab the Mets as Friday's oddsmaker error. |
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06-30-16 | Indians v. Blue Jays +112 | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 29 m | Show | |
Toronto Blue Jays All great streaks come to an end, and Thursday we'll look to grab the value on the Blue Jays to end the Indians twelve game win-streak. At the plate the Indians have received a gamut of above average hitting from their entire lineup. They'll look to challenge a Blue Jays team that has been able to manufacture runs with Jose Bautista out of the lineup. That was showcased with double-digit runs against the Rockies on Tuesday and another solid plate appearance Wednesday with five runs. Throughout the Indians win streak a glaring deficiency has remained with their bullpen. Toronto we'll be ready to capitalize and drag out a win as an underdog Thursday. |
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06-28-16 | Rangers v. Yankees +100 | 7-1 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 25 m | Show | |
NY Yankees We've got a close money line spread on the Rangers today against the Yankees. Texas of course has been one of the hottest teams in baseball while the Yankees have shown gradual improvements to close out the month of June. CC Sabathia's return has been a strong factor as he has just a 2.71 ERA and has been much more attractive on the mound than Eovaldi/Nova and others. Yet, he was rocked his last outing in a short four inning game against the Rockies. Still, the Yankees strength with their bullpen and timely hitting is enough to bypass the Rangers who have been hitting the ball above their regular season averages. Grab the Yankees to deliver on home value. |
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06-27-16 | Mets -115 v. Nationals | 4-11 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 14 m | Show | |
NY Mets The Mets opened as slight underdogs overnight and we've seen a slight drift to their side this AM. Their opponent in the Nationals finally cleared the hurdle of losing seven games in a row with a 3-2 win against the Brewers. It capped the ending to a ten game road trip in which the Nationals struggled to muster run efficiency. The same problems have occurred with the Mets who have been stung by injuries and inconsistent play. Yet, on Monday I believe there is more value on the side of the Mets who have had the more consistent bullpen as of late. Take the Mets to cash as our sharp shooter Monday play. |
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06-25-16 | Diamondbacks +123 v. Rockies | 6-11 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 57 m | Show | |
Arizona The Diamondbacks have outlasted the Colorado Rockies in consecutive one-run games. Can it continue on Saturday? To do so they'll need to ride the arm of Shelby Miller with a bullpen that's had heavy use over the first two games of the series. For the Rockies they'll go to their ace returning to form in Jorge De La Rosa. De La Rosa has won three consecutive games as he continues to nip away at his sky-high ERA. While Shelby Miller has struggled to win games, I still like the value of the Diamondbacks who are attacking the plate up and down their lineup. This should be a dandy but we'll take the Dbacks to grab another in Coors Field. |
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06-24-16 | Nationals v. Brewers +157 | 3-5 | Win | 157 | 13 h 15 m | Show | |
Milwaukee We've seen some steep underdogs cash out recently and Friday I look for another to happen with the Brewers. Manufacturing runs against a pitcher of Scherzer's caliber is definitely a difficult task. In just his last four games he has delivered double digit strikeouts in three. Yet, there is are current prevalent issues with the Nationals one being a bullpen that is eroding before All-Star break. Milwaukee's young pitcher in Zach Davies has done a 360 from his sky high ERA in May. Expect Davies to keep in command of his pitches and for the power lineup of the Brewers to attack Scherzer's knack for going after strikeouts. Take the Brewers to cash as big underdogs. |
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06-24-16 | Indians -107 v. Tigers | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show | |
Cleveland Two pitching stalwarts take the mound on Friday. For Cleveland it's Danny Salazar and the Tigers Jordan Zimmerman. It seems that the Indians fed off their cities championship vibes as they have won six straight all at home. Traveling on the road to Detroit will put their streak on the line. Yet, I see the value still on the Indians side. Detroit's is coming off a series sweep against the Mariners in which they survived with timely hits against a shaky bullpen. Cleveland's staff has settled in and more importantly the Tribe are confident at the plate. Take the Indians to keep their streak alive with a road win. |
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06-22-16 | White Sox v. Red Sox -118 | 8-6 | Loss | -118 | 8 h 31 m | Show | |
Boston Red Sox We went against Jose Quintana and the White Sox last week against the Indians, and will do so today as well. Quintana got away with a couple of early runs to survive a no-decision thanks to the Indians bullpen making things interesting. Yet, the Red Sox quiet offense paired with Rodriguez (6.3 ERA) has bettors siding with the White Sox. Over Boston's last nine games they've produced just two games with run production over four runs. Yet, besides an eight run game allowed against the Mariners the Red Sox pitchers have settled in. That's being ignored here and I expect Rodriguez to answer the challenge today along with the Red Sox bats breaking out of a mini-slump at home. |
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06-21-16 | Mariners v. Tigers -126 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 24 m | Show | |
Detroit Justin Verlander is delivering profits on the mound for the first time in a long time at this stage of the season. His record is 7-5 which isn't a high margin of profits which may lead bettors to predict his downfall before the All-Star break. Instead I see a reformed pitcher that's comfortable with his routine/command. While the Mariners starter in James Paxton has been highly effective I'm still leery of the Mariners pen controlling three innings. Take the Tigers in which should be a game to pull the Tigers back over .500 |
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06-19-16 | Cavs +5 v. Warriors | 93-89 | Win | 100 | 29 h 50 m | Show | |
Cleveland While value seems to be on Golden State for game seven, I'll side with the Cavaliers again here. History is against them as they look to become the first team in history to win a championship down three games to one. Yet, this series changed after game two. Cleveland has found the balance needed defensively and offensively with a shortened rotation. Keep in mind Warriors Coach Steve Kerr is in just his second year. He started the season out with a back injury. This is the first time he has seen his team flounder a bit amidst adversity. Unlike against the Thunder the chemistry offensively has been missing. That's a challenging issue when relying on depth is your balance. The x-factor for Cleveland is Kevin Love as he has to respond in game seven. After a dismal performance in game five and a foul plagued seven minutes in game six, I think he'll have the mindset necessary. Grab Cleveland to become the second sport to witness a team knock off a strong regular season team (Panthers 4.5-5) |
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06-17-16 | White Sox v. Indians -117 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 21 h 40 m | Show | |
Cleveland Friday we'll look at the home team Indians against close rival in the Chicago White Sox. The Indians are still topsy turvy on a daily basis but I've been impressed with their balance as of late. Neither the White Sox or Indians are lighting it up in the win column, with the White Sox at .500 at 33-33 and the Indians at 35-30. Yet, for Friday I'll look for value on the Indians with resurrected veteran Trevor Bauer. He's getting the job done going 4-2 with a 3.69 ERA. Meanwhile White Sox pitcher Jose Quintana falls into a rare category with a strong ERA and a subpar output record wise of 5-7. Look for the Indians to continue Quintana's trend of losing with a solid outing. Grab the Indians. |
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06-16-16 | Warriors v. Cavs -2 | 101-115 | Win | 100 | 29 h 33 m | Show | |
The Cavaliers have suddenly went from dead in the water at three games to one to a game away from forcing a game seven. They've done so by buying in to Coach Tyronn Lue's defensive game plan for an entire game. In fact, if not for a breakdown in the third quarter of game four, this could have been a closeout game for the Cavaliers. The lure of Draymond Green's return coupled with the Cavaliers depleted bench poses quick reaction to buy the Warriors here. Since game two Matthew Dellevedova has seen his minutes decrease and Channing Frye did not play a single minute in game five. This combined with Kevin Love's putrid two point performance in game five is worrisome. Yet, I believe the confidence had already been there for the Cavs as a defense, and now is there offensively with the combination duo of Irving/Lebron. This is a case where depth can be trumped by elite level play from Lebron/Kyrie. Grab the Cavs in game six. |
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06-15-16 | Astros v. Cardinals -113 | 4-1 | Loss | -113 | 14 h 19 m | Show | |
St. Louis Cardinals For Wednesday we'll look at the Cardinals as our mid-week value play. Cardinals ace Adam Wainwright has seen his ERA drop gradually to it's current level of 5.21. Can he get it beneath five against the potent bats of the Astros? I believe we'll continue to see a strong performance from Wainwright against an Astros team that is coming off a opening series win last night over the Cardinals. Yet, the Astros are also in the midst of their ninth consecutive game on the road. In their last series against the Rays tired bats began to show against the Rays. Grab the Cardinals to capitalize in a way many thought would happen Tuesday. |
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06-15-16 | Mariners +111 v. Rays | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 13 m | Show | |
Seattle Mariners It's always tough to recover from a gut-wrenching loss, as the one that Seattle suffered last night to the Rays. A three run lead quickly evaporated in the bottom of the seventh as the Rays stormed back to steal a win over the Mariners. Part of the reason for the Mariners losing their momentum had to do with their starting pitcher Taiquan Walker leaving the game in the fourth inning with an aggravation of his achillies. Wednesday's starter for the Mariners in Nathan Karns is not known for his ability to last deep into games. With the Mariners bullpen over worked last night the perception is the bullpen won't last in consecutive games. Instead I see the Mariners as a contrarian play to take as a slight underdog Wednesday. |
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06-14-16 | Reds +118 v. Braves | 3-1 | Win | 118 | 13 h 23 m | Show | |
Reds We'll take an underdog play on the Reds for Tuesday. On the mound for the Reds is Brian Finnegan opposed Braves starter Julio Teheran. Teheran may be the Braves top ace but is coming off just his second win in his last start against San Diego. Things just aren't in order to bank trust with Atlanta solely on their aces 2.85 ERA. At 18-45 that should be a no brainer. The Reds took game one of the series last night with a bases loaded walk in the top of the ninth. Look for the Reds to carry the momentum of winning three of their last four and last night's win into Tuesday. Grab the Reds for Tuesday's MLB lone play. |
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06-13-16 | Cavs +7 v. Warriors | 112-97 | Win | 100 | 39 h 7 m | Show | |
Cleveland We've now won three of four Finals plays as we look to grab number four in game five. Golden State used defense and timely offense from their back court to spurn a solid effort from the Cavaliers in game four. The win by Golden State has undoubtedly shifted value exponentially on the Warriors. They won 73 regular season games and were dominant at home. Yet, I'm not discounting the Cavaliers just yet. They had a solid game plan that worked to perfection in game three and for the majority of game four. Ragged offense cost them a chance to even the series combined with uncanny offense from the Warriors. In the NFL sometimes scrambling quarterbacks can go off even though defenses know it's coming. One big run leads to others as containment gets unraveled from missed assignments. That's what I saw in game four. Cleveland lost containment of Curry/Thompson in the third quarter and as a result completely unraveled. Instead of expecting the Cavaliers to lay an egg on the road, look for them to play a strong game and keep containment for a better amount of time in game five on the Splash Brothers. |
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06-12-16 | Cardinals v. Pirates -113 | 8-3 | Loss | -113 | 11 h 8 m | Show | |
Pittsburgh Sunday night features a common matchup between the Pirates and Cardinals. St. Louis has won the first two games and six of their last seven to jump ahead of the Pirates in the NL Central. The reversal has happened thanks in large part for the Cardinals getting offense to match their improved pitching. They've scored five or more runs in six of their last seven games. Yet, I believe Sunday provides value on the Pirates side. Jon Niese has been a pleasant surprise for the Pirates and should be able to quell the above average hitting we've seen recently from the Cardinals. Mike Leake on the other hand is coming off a blown 2-0 lead against the Nationals in which he served up three home runs in the sixth and seventh inning. Take the Pirates to payoff Sunday night. |
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06-12-16 | Astros -125 v. Rays | 0-5 | Loss | -125 | 7 h 12 m | Show | |
Houston Houston held off a late rally with high enthusiasm from pitcher Will Harris to defeat the Rays 4-3 Saturday. The series has featured two close one-run games that both bullpens had a tough time registering the win. Perhaps the close affairs has devalued Sunday's line along with Astros ace Dallas Keuchel's inconsistencies. Another variable for value on the Astros side Sunday is the fact that they've scored six of their seven runs in the series after the sixth inning. Take Houston to produce runs early and gain confidence to close the series out in style. |
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06-11-16 | Indians v. Angels -118 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 23 h 53 m | Show | |
Angels We're going to ride with the home team Angels tonight for Saturday. Cleveland got after it in the first inning last night to produce four quick runs against Hector Santiago. Tonight I expect Shoemaker to fare better who has seen a drastic improvement over his last few starts. Cleveland's a bit overvalued here based on winning ways as of late and Trevor Bauer's re-emergence in the rotation. Grab the Angels to thrive at home tonight and deliver without a hefty steep price. |
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06-10-16 | Warriors +2 v. Cavs | 108-97 | Win | 100 | 14 h 14 m | Show | |
Golden State Warriors The Cavaliers did a great job in showcasing the ability to step up on their home court with improved defense in game three. Limiting both the Warriors starters and bench a consecutive game though will be a tough task. I'm not sold on continuing to see Irving and JR Smith thrive for four quarters, and more worried about the Cavs limited depth. Coach Steve Kerr of the Warriors defeated the Thunder with series adjustments and tonight we'll see a few more tweaks. This should be a great inspired effort once again from the Cavaliers, but they're still under manned to cover two consecutive games. Grab the value on the Warriors to cover the number in game four. |
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06-08-16 | Warriors v. Cavs +1.5 | 90-120 | Win | 100 | 32 h 5 m | Show | |
Cleveland Cleveland is starting to look more and more like a team that can't contend with the West. After a great playoff run they're looking in no form of resemblance of what we saw in the first three rounds. While Golden State has surged in the last ten days to the level we saw during their record breaking regular season. Yet, traveling to Cleveland I think we'll awaken the Cavaliers somewhat to stave off an improbable 3-0 deficit. They showed in game one they can play defensively with the Warriors as well as in the first quarter of game two. Problems continue to lie with the Cavaliers bench which just is getting destroyed by the Warriors potent bench. Challenging the starters to do more has to be an optimal goal from Coach Tyronn Lue. Look for the Cavaliers to get the offense they need and to get a better level of defense all around to grab game three. |
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06-07-16 | Astros -103 v. Rangers | 3-4 | Loss | -103 | 7 h 11 m | Show | |
Houston Dallas Keuchel may not be in top form as last year, but the Astros are getting things back in order with their lineup. Catcher, Evan Gattis has sprung to life and rose his dead in the water average to nearly .240. Getting timely hits to match their power lineup should spring growing confidence back into ace Dallas Keuchel. Look for the Astros to get revenge on Hamels from an earlier loss this season. Take the Astros. |
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06-05-16 | Cavs +7 v. Warriors | 77-110 | Loss | -115 | 45 h 39 m | Show | |
Cavaliers Market value is always a big indicator of where to go ATS. Prior to the playoffs the Warriors were -330 to win the NBA title. A subpar post season from their regular season standard dropped them to just -220 over the Cavaliers. Now after one game series odds have leapt to -400. Nearly double! That's a steep leap from a one game result, that stemmed from an impressive effort from the Warriors bench. I don't expect the Cavaliers to over react as they played their defensive game plan extremely well on Warriors guards Steph Curry and Klay Thompson. Areas of growth offensively are there as the Cavaliers need to shoot the ball better and limit their turnovers. In my opinion seeking the extra point from game one's ATS spread is a golden opportunity. |
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06-03-16 | Giants v. Cardinals -102 | 5-1 | Loss | -102 | 7 h 11 m | Show | |
St. Louis Cardinals A superb turn around from Giants ace Johnny Cuetto has begun to shift value back to his elite stretch witnessed as a Red. He's 8-1 with a superb ERA of 2.31 with two complete games over his last three starts. The Cardinals on the other hand have reverted back to frustrating ATS backers. They've gone cold at the plate and have lost five of their last nine games. Yet, today's pitcher in Adam Wainwright is starting to gain confidence even though his ERA is not indicative of that. Not often but sometimes you have to analyze why a spread is set at the current number. This one by all estimations of the Cardinals recent woes and Cuetto's dominance is a head scratcher, but the oddsmakers aren't foolish. Grab the rare necessary smart side oddsmakers have offered with the Cardinals today. |
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06-03-16 | Brewers +101 v. Phillies | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 0 m | Show | |
Brewers Wearing your own ball club out is a common theme in MLB. We're seeing an aggressive rise in pattern of pitching staffs bowing out with horrific blown leads by bullpens recently. Philadelphia's early season fade is still in the twinkle stage even amidst a seven game losing streak. Yet, they're is reason to believe this slide will continue as their lineup has failed to generate offense to support their staff. In fact during their seven game slide they've scored over two runs just once. Milwaukee has the veteran presence and lineup to get after Velasquez and hand the Phillies an eighth straight loss. |
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06-02-16 | Cavs v. Warriors -5.5 | 89-104 | Win | 100 | 28 h 0 m | Show | |
Warriors While the rested Cavaliers have played better overall in the playoffs than the Warriors, it's a new beginning with a fresh slate in game one. Suddenly the Warriors have won three consecutive playoff games after being just 9-5 in the playoffs. Were starting to all know that Steph Curry is not 100 percent. That has limited the Warriors potent offense somewhat. Yet, the Warriors have found new ways to flourish by turning up their defense another level. That's the key in game one as the Raptors showed that defensive energy can frustrate the Cavaliers, especially on the road. While the Cavaliers may play a better first half, there will come a time where the Warriors utilize their home court and defense to go on a patented surge. Take the Warriors in game one. |
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06-02-16 | Pirates v. Marlins -111 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 19 h 8 m | Show | |
Marlins The Marlins look to capture the final win and third in a row in their series against the Pirates. Last night they did in solid fashion by getting a key eighth inning run from Adeiny Hechavarria against the Pirates bullpen. Thursday, on the mound will be Chen opposed Pirates pitcher Juan Nicasio. Nicasio has had a revitalized year as a Pirate that has seen him win four decisions opposed to four losses. Yet, even though he is tallying the wins his hits are starting to mount up. Over his last four starts he has allowed five home runs. The Marlins are back in health with recent returns of Stanton/Yelich in the lineup. Grab the Marlins to attack Nicasio and back their ace Chen who should shut down a Pirates lineup that's waned as the seres has extended. |
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06-01-16 | Rays v. Royals -105 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 42 m | Show | |
Kansas City The Royals have fought through injuries and pitching issues to still maintain. Right now they're dealing with a hamstring injury to their catching in Salvador Perez, but that has seemed to ignite their bats at the plate. Two nights ago they broke open a tied game against Tampa Bay in similar fashion as a season. They attacked the Rays bullpen and knocked in four runs in the eighth inning. Rays pitching Chris Archer has not been able to command the zone and that spells trouble against the hot hitting Royals. With one of the worst pens in baseball in a tailspin grab the Royals to garner another heroic win on Wednesday. |
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05-30-16 | Thunder +7.5 v. Warriors | 88-96 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 10 m | Show | |
OKC Surely the Thunder would have liked to win the West Finals on their home floor. Yet a series is seven games and as professionals they must handle the task of taking on the Warriors in Golden State. Do I expect the Thunder to adjust their game six game plan? No, similar to boxing the Warriors in desperation mode went for a few haymakers late and landed the knockout blow. Eight fourth quarter three pointers keyed by Thompson's 41 points did the trick. While many want to point the blame on another Thunder fourth quarter collapse I saw it as just a superb finish by a championship team. Yet, expect the Thunder to regroup and have extra emphasis in a critical do or die game seven. Don't forget Kevin Durant is an impending free agent setting the stage for a possible exit. Take the Thunder plus the points. |
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05-29-16 | Yankees v. Rays -102 | 2-1 | Loss | -102 | 13 h 18 m | Show | |
Tampa Bay Rays Yesterday the Rays took care of business as they pounded Yankees starter Michael Pineda. Pineda didn't last four innings and Girardi chose to preserve his ace bullpen in the loss. On the mound Sunday is ace Nathan Eovaldi who we backed in his last start against the Blue Jays. This start we'll go opposite as I like the way the Rays bats are hitting. Though their bullpen struggled yesterday, expect a bounce back outing from them tonight. Tweaks with A-Rod back in the lineup are still in adjustment. Grab the Rays Sunday. |
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05-28-16 | Astros -123 v. Angels | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 20 h 47 m | Show | |
Houston Astros Dallas Keuchel's struggles have been a head scratcher. Similar to Matt Harvey, Keuchel can't find his command and steady go to pitches like last year. Yet, there comes a point in time where the offense needs to bail out a struggling pitcher. This should be a great spot for the Astros offense which has had their power bats as of late. Jerad Weaver is a sporadic veteran pitcher that will have a tough time lasting more than five innings against the Astros. Grab the Astros as Keuchel should find comfort with a 2-3 run lead. |
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05-28-16 | Warriors v. Thunder -2.5 | 108-101 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 43 m | Show | |
Oklahoma City Thunder Market value is a great determiner in key spots and game six is one between the Warriors and Thunder. Oddsmaker's tried their best to play catch up to the Thunder's raised play has seen this line move to 2.5. Yet, I fully believe this is the line that should have been offered in game three. Therefore, value is still on the Thunder's side. Yes, the defending NBA champions have been resilient and will be a tough out. But I clearly expect the Thunder to answer the Warriors punches on their home floor. Golden State is in the underdog role and deservedly so as they're not the 73 win regular season team we witnessed. Grab the Thunder to take the series in game six. |
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05-27-16 | Cavs -6 v. Raptors | 113-87 | Win | 100 | 14 h 47 m | Show | |
Cleveland What does Toronto have left in the tank for game six? They've shown all throughout the playoffs that when you believe they're down for the count, they're not. Yet, this series has been more of a theme to Cleveland. When Cleveland dictates their style of play they've cruised over the Raptors. Albeit those wins were at home, which has some believing in the Raptors in game six. I don't see it as the Raptors looked like a team on their last leg against the Miami Heat. Cleveland got in their own way in prior games in Toronto. This time they'll treat this game in fashion of games 1-2 and 5. |
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05-26-16 | Thunder v. Warriors -7 | 111-120 | Win | 100 | 14 h 43 m | Show | |
Golden State Being on Oklahoma State's side over the last few weeks has delivered plenty of profits for us. Yet, on Thursday I can't bypass a Warriors team that went 73-9 in the regular season. Golden State needs their team to uplift them with Steph Curry not at 100 percent. They did so against the Rockets and Trailblazers and surely have the capability to do so on their home floor in a must-win situation. Oklahoma State has had great success but tackling a beast as such as the Warriors in this key spot is troublesome. I for one did not agree with game one or two's spreads of 8 and 7.5. But in this instance the line may be too low and is high value off the Thunder's last two wins and Curry's healthy percentage. Grab the Warriors. |
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05-26-16 | Cardinals +116 v. Nationals | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 59 m | Show | |
St. Louis A great matchup is on the MLB schedule for Thursday as the St. Louis Cardinals battle the balanced Washington Nationals. Washington stumbled on Wednesday with no runs after shellacking Matt Harvey and the Mets on Tuesday. In town for a new series will be the underdog Cardinal. I see the value on the Cardinals side here with starting pitcher Mike Leake opposed Joe Ross. After starting the season 3-0, Ross has lost all of his May starts. Typically you'd see money sway to the other way but folks see the Nationals bats and bullpen as the key here. Not us, we'll take the Cardinal as I believe that Leake can still the show and get proper run support on the road. Ross loses his fifth start in May and the Cardinals get the cash. |
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05-25-16 | Raptors v. Cavs -10.5 | 78-116 | Win | 100 | 20 h 32 m | Show | |
Cleveland The past two games in Toronto featured the Raptors come together like they haven't the entire playoffs. They frustrated the Cavaliers perimeter offense and found their rhythm offensively. It took Cleveland nearly two entire games to adjust offensively from their perimeter playoff attack to more of a true regular season root. At the end of the third quarter in game four, Cleveland finally stopped having the ball stick on the perimeter and moved the ball fluidly. The result was eleven straight made field goals in the fourth quarter. As great as the Raptors turn around in the series has been there is no denying that this series hasn't been played to the level of a series tied at two games apiece. |
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05-24-16 | Warriors v. Thunder +2 | 94-118 | Win | 100 | 7 h 22 m | Show | |
OKCÂ Swayed value has finally occurred as the OKC Thunder have soared with dynamic performances against the Spurs and now Warriors. This is a spot that can be tricky against the defending champions, yet they're at home and have thriving momentum. I like the system changes Donovan has implemented, and clearly Durant/Westbrook have showcased they're on an extra level. Look for the Thunder to carry over momentum and put the Warriors in a tough spot. Grab the Thunder. |
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05-24-16 | Blue Jays v. Yankees -129 | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 28 m | Show | |
Yankees Suddenly the Yankees staff has revitalized. Perhaps it has to do a little bit with Chapman in the fold (three saves since returning from suspension). One pitcher who has stayed under the radar has been Nathan Eovaldi. In a period where several big name pitchers have lost velocity, Eovaldi has maintained steady heat in the high 90's. Toronto has under achieved and is slumping with their power bats. Gibbons has been ejected three times in the last week and a half, all the while trying to move position players up and down the lineup. Grab the Yankees as Eovaldi should deliver another solid performance protected by a surging pen. |
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05-23-16 | Cavs -5.5 v. Raptors | 99-105 | Loss | -107 | 24 h 44 m | Show | |
Cavaliers We'll call game three a semi let down for the Cleveland Cavaliers. They never got in rhythm offensively and lost focus on the defensive end. It was a flat performance against a team deservedly in a conference final. Yet, Toronto's teased us all playoffs with one or two dynamic games every series. I do expect Tyronn Lue to come back with a defensive plan to offset the Raptors transition game. Offensively the Cavaliers should get back to the level we've seen all playoffs. Keep in mind the Raptors are a dinged up team and have been prone to severe offensive droughts throughout the playoffs. Grab the Cavaliers. |
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05-23-16 | Phillies v. Tigers +104 | 4-5 | Win | 104 | 22 h 20 m | Show | |
Detroit On the mound Monday for the Phillies is rising young ace Velasquez opposed to Tigers veteran Mike Pelfrey. Velasquez has enjoyed immediate success as he has shown great command along with strikeout presence. Overall he is 5-1 and is coming off a dominant ten strikeout performance against the Marlins. Yet, I believe the Tigers bats have come to life to derail the young ace Monday. The small sample size of Velasquez has featured games against subpar lineups. Grab the Tigers as a home dog to handle the Phillies on Monday. |
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05-22-16 | Warriors v. Thunder +3 | 105-133 | Win | 100 | 69 h 5 m | Show | |
OKC Golden State ignited in a big way game two which may cause people to forget game one. OKC just did not have the counters offensively to stay in such a game on the road. Do it all point guard Russ Westbrook had just a lone rebound which is not typical of the All-Star. Another anomaly for the Thunder was allowing fifteen offensive rebounds to the Warriors to just seven of their own. Back at home I expect a much more balanced attack offensively and defensively that we've seen from the Thunder this post season. Golden State's value ATS is still undetermined against a new and improved Thunder. Take the value on the home dog. |
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05-22-16 | Royals +109 v. White Sox | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 29 m | Show | |
Kansas City There comes a point in time where value falls too much on a reigning champion. I see that as the case Sunday as the Royals value has come down a bit while the White Sox is still dangling in territory unforeseen. Ventura has always been an erratic pitcher but I think we're seeing the staff as a whole settle in lately delivering sound performances this week. Like in any sport momentum is a driving force, and I see Ventura falling in line with his fellow Royals in settling in. This is frankly a value play Sunday as I see the White Sox as a trap play with the young Rodon and great record driving value. |
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05-21-16 | Cavs -5.5 v. Raptors | 84-99 | Loss | -109 | 3 h 41 m | Show | |
Cavaliers Toronto's home court ability has helped them in the first two rounds. Yet their offense has been a no-show thus far against the Cleveland Cavaliers. In game two yet again they allowed an end of quarter run that proved to be the difference ATS and for the game with a Cavaliers 14-2 run before half. Give Coach Casey credit as he has tried tweaking the lineup in a plethora of ways. While they may extend into the second half playing close with the Cavaliers, I do not anticipate them finishing the game off. Take the Cavs to pull off a road win ATS Saturday. |
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05-20-16 | Nationals v. Marlins +117 | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 16 m | Show | |
Miami One of the more under rated series in MLB this season has been between the Marlins and Nationals. The Nationals are coming off a statement road win against the Mets in which they tattooed Mets ace Matt Harvey for nine runs. Their pitcher Friday in Tanner Roark will look to avenge last week's May 14th loss to the Marlins in which he gave up seven earned runs. On the opposing mound for Miami is Justin Nicolino who has shown to be a serviceable pitcher this year. While the focus will be on the Nationals hot bats, I'm on the contrarian side here as I believe the Marlins have shown great balance at the plate as well. Up and down their lineup they continue to find timely hitting whether it be with Ozuna, Dietrich, Rojas, Yelich, or perennial All-Star Giancarlo Stanton. Grab the Marlins to attack the Nationals pen and win this home game as a slight underdog. |
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05-18-16 | Thunder +8.5 v. Warriors | 91-118 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 23 m | Show | |
Oklahoma City +8.5 This is a spot where Golden State assuredly has to respond on their home floor. The pressure is on the defending national champion to not go down 2-0 before heading to Oklahoma City. I'm not saying that will lose but the value still is on the Thunder's side. They played a below standard game from my eyes and still prevailed outright in game one. There's a lot of improvement to expect in game two from a defensive stand point as well as from stars Kevin Durant/Russ Westbrook offensively. The Warriors are who they are. They're going to feed off their crowd and go on igniting offensive surges as they thrive with small ball basketball. OKC is fine with that tempo and realizes those spurts are inevitable. They're able to combat runs with key stretches of getting to the free throw line and increasing their defensive intensity when needed. I was stunned to see this line increase from game one. Now we've surpassed regular season odds of eight points which is mind numbing. Take the points yet again with the Thunder. |
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05-17-16 | Yankees +110 v. Diamondbacks | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 47 m | Show | |
Yankees Is Zach Greinke ready to elevate his play to the deemed level he showcased as an LA Dodger? Markets suggest show as he is a steep home favorite against the Yankees tonight. Yet, I'm still not seeing the quality pitching from him needed to back against a Yankees team that has shown spots of life at the plate. Not only that the Diamondbacks offense has been in a downward funk. Their twelve runs yesterday will be on fresh on the minds of backers today, leading to value on the Yankees. Pineda of the Yankees has battled strongly through subpar outings and may feel the relief of the strength of his bullpen to give the Yanks a true quality start today. Grab the value on the Yankees. |
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05-17-16 | Raptors v. Cavs -10.5 | 84-115 | Win | 100 | 10 h 41 m | Show | |
Cleveland Oddsmakers have surely made you think with a steep increase in value on the Cavaliers. The Cavaliers meet a second team in the playoffs that have had their number in the regular season as Toronto defeated them twice. Yet, this is a different Raptors team. Health is of concern with several players playing hurt and key big man in Valuncianus out with an ankle injury. My main concern with the Raptors is the several player adjustments they've made in the past two rounds. Against the Pacers Nolan Powell was taken out of the starting lineup. Against the Heat Biyombo was inserted due to injury to JV, meanwhile veteran Luis Scola did not play entirely after registering a 21 minute average in the regular season. All of these adjustments have forced even higher pressure on the Raptors Lowry and DeRozan the strength of their bench to fade. Grab the Cavaliers to bypass the rust of being off for eight days. |
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05-16-16 | Thunder +7.5 v. Warriors | 108-102 | Win | 100 | 17 h 11 m | Show | |
OKCÂ Subscribers should not be fooled here. I've talked about the Thunder's edge ATS for a gamut of games now. Oddsmaker's have failed to adjust. The Warriors are a strong home team and the defending NBA champion. Regular season numbers would showcase that the Warriors should be favored at the current line of 7.5 as they swept the Thunder three games to none. Yet, this is a different Thunder team that is gaining confidence as they extend into the playoffs. Billy Donovan's trust in his players is awfully similar to the trust Steve Kerr bestows on his Warriors. Don't forget the Warriors missed out on Steph Curry's play in spots in both the first and second rounds. The Thunder are healthy and have played well against Golden State this season. One loss the Thunder came back after being down eighteen in the third quarter and another Steph Curry nailed his miracle three pointer. Grab the Thunder to match up well in game one as a half point differential from the regular season is a bit odd here. |
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05-15-16 | Heat v. Raptors -4.5 | 89-116 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show | |
Toronto Raptors The Heat have rode the magic of great coaching and veterans to get to this stage of seven games. They're a tough group but game seven is where the cream always rises to the top. Frankly, I believe this series should have been over in five games by the Raptors. For whatever reason they've continued to carry over rusty play from their Pacers series. Luckily for them the Heat are at a high disadvantage without Hassan Whiteside. Coach Spoelstra quickly made adjustments in game six to a smaller lineup that thrived. Yet, they also held the lead from the first quarter on. On the road against a deficit could spell trouble quickly for the Heat. How much more can the Heat get out of Wade, Dragic, Winslow, and Richardson? The Raptors have thrived attacking the basket in games five and six since the loss of Whiteside. Look for that to continue in game seven and the rise of play from Lowry/DeRozan to shine. |
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05-14-16 | Cardinals -109 v. Dodgers | 3-5 | Loss | -109 | 18 h 36 m | Show | |
St. Louis Cardinals St. Louis sits as a slight road favorite Saturday night. While the Dodgers have found recent offense with the likes of Corey Seager and company, I believe the bats of the Cardinals are showing more progression. Recently they've featured players breaking out of slumps with Matt Holiday, Carpenter, and Brandon Moss. They should be able to attack veteran Scott Kazmir and get to the Dodgers bullpen a bit earlier than anticipated. Carlos Martinez will hold steady enough for the Cardinals to cash as slight road favorites here. |
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05-14-16 | Giants v. Diamondbacks -130 | 5-3 | Loss | -130 | 17 h 35 m | Show | |
Arizona The lone reason why this money line spread is not higher is because of the Diamondbacks faltering with Zach Greinke and Shelby Miller on the mound against the Giants. Saturday's Giants pitcher in Jay Peavy has had success against the Diamondbacks but there is no moving around his dismal start to the season. He's 1-4 with an ERA north of eight. Diamondbacks pitcher Pat Corbin may be 1-3 overall but he's been a part of consecutive games in which he pitched well enough to garner a win. This time around he gets proper run support to register his second win, as the Dbacks pen should be put in a solid situation. |
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05-14-16 | Reds +138 v. Phillies | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 15 m | Show | |
Cincinnati We cashed against the Phillies with the Braves a few days ago. Since then the Phillies have added a couple of more wins. Closer Jeanmar Gomez continues to be a key asset as he added his fourteenth save of the season yesterday. Still, I have the Phillies as a team to look out for a deep slide soon. They're getting above average contributions from their pitching staff, and getting timely runs to win games. Eight of their last nine wins have come by a single run. Obviously pressure builds on young staffs as well as the bullpen when put in consistent situations as such. Grab the Reds who have potent bats that should flourish against Nola and the overdue shaky outing from the Phillies pen. |
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05-13-16 | Raptors v. Heat -4 | 91-103 | Win | 100 | 6 h 38 m | Show | |
Miami Heat 546 The grueling series between the Heat and Raptors has been tough to watch from an offensive standpoint. Miami seemed to falter in game five without Whiteside in the interior but still came close to pulling off another road win. That's worrisome to me on Friday as the Raptors still don't look fluid enough offensively to finish off a series in less than seven games. One thing of notice in game five was the fact that Josh Richardson and Justice Winslow found their confidence. If they can carry that over into game six we could see a complete shift in the Heat's chances of winning this series outright. From game six's standpoint look for the Heat's balance to outdo the Raptors and for Coach Spoelstra to have necessary adjustments to thwart the Raptors. |
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05-12-16 | Spurs v. Thunder +2 | 99-113 | Win | 100 | 21 h 58 m | Show | |
OKC- We see this all the time in other sports. Teams peak in the playoffs and can beat the best of the best teams. It's happening right before our eyes with the Thunder and the Spurs. For the Thunder to beat the Spurs twice on their home floor speaks volumes as the Spurs had lost only once all season. They're getting it done with a college basketball mentality from Billy Donovan. He's giving the freedom necessarily needed to his star players in Durant/Westbrook and it's working. While the Spurs long standing dominance is deserved of being favored, it's coming to an end Thursday. Grab OKC to finish off the Spurs in grandiose fashion. |
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05-12-16 | Padres +128 v. Brewers | 3-0 | Win | 128 | 21 h 42 m | Show | |
San Diego Padres-953 After a double-header in which the Padres defeated the Cubs in both games you'd figure a let down will occur against the Brewers. I see further value as James Shields should be able to regain his form against a Brewers lineup that is struggling. Aaron Hill, Jon Lucroy, and Cris Carter have cooled off at the plate recently, and power has dissipated from the lineup. While Jimmy Nelson is capable of carrying the team with his arm there are too many issues with their bullpen to garner this high of a spread. Grab San Diego to surprise folks with a nice payout yet again. |
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05-11-16 | Heat v. Raptors -4 | 91-99 | Win | 100 | 17 h 35 m | Show | |
Toronto Raptors 538 There's an odd paradigm taking place in the Heat-Raptors series. The focus on the Heat has been the great resurrection of Dwayne Wade while with the Raptors the focus has been negative. Continued poor shooting from All-Stars DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry have cast doubt on the Raptors. Yet, I see things opposite. This series could easily have been over courtesy of a sweep from the Raptors if not from imploding in game four and playing rusty in game one. Defensively they're flat out wearing down the Heat. Wednesday, for the first time expect the Raptors to get their offense in gear both with the starters and bench. They had success attacking the rim on Monday in particular with DeMar DeRozan who missed several gimme layup attempts. Those will fall Wednesday as the Heat are not going to get away with utilizing Amare Stoudemire, Josh McRoberts, and Udonis Haslem as their triple threat interior players in consecutive games. |
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05-11-16 | Phillies v. Braves +102 | 1-5 | Win | 102 | 16 h 46 m | Show | |
906 Atlanta Braves Give credit to the Philadelphia Phillies for their great start to the 2016 season. Often times though young teams will flirt with success early before scouting attacks their pitching and hitting. Philadelphia somehow sits just one win back of the Mets and Nationals as they've won three consecutive games by one run. Closer Jeanmar Gomez has received work in all three games and started to show the signs of overuse in last night's 3-2 win over Atlanta. He allowed two hits including a home run. Though Atlanta is an abysmal 7-24 they've shown some fight in recent narrow losses to the Dbacks and Phillies. For all the hype of Jared Eickhoff the fact of the matter is he's 1-4 overall. Look for Jhoulys Chacin to respond from a rough last outing and for the Braves bats to nail Eickhoff for his fifth loss of the season. |
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05-10-16 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies -116 | 5-1 | Loss | -116 | 19 h 42 m | Show | |
Colorado 960 All of the sudden the Arizona Diamondbacks are back on track after a poor seven game slide. They've won recently in large part due to pitching turning around. Shelby Miller, Pat Corbin, and yesterday Archie Bradley all served sound outings. They've also received solid plating with the likes of Jean Segura who homered and hit a double last night. Yet, Tuesday I'll side with the Rockies who are undervalued here at home. They've slipped below .500 after losing twelve of their last eighteen games. I do not expect Ruby De La Rosa to survive deep enough to protect a Diamondbacks bullpen that has been shaky to say the least with their middle relievers and overworked Brad Ziegler this past week. |
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05-10-16 | Thunder +7 v. Spurs | 95-91 | Win | 100 | 18 h 51 m | Show | |
Oklahoma City Thunder 535 There has been superb basketball in the second round of the NBA playoffs. Unfortunately I've been on the side of some tight outcomes. Tuesday, I see the Spurs and Thunder as likely the best spread in the second round yet. Throughout the years the Spurs have been battle tested and responded in tough situations. They've also been a dominant home team. Therefore oddsmakers had no choice but to offer a higher line than game one and two's set lines. Market value would say to take the Thunder and that's where we'll go with Tuesday's selection. OKC has the athletes and has changed their team chemistry with their defensive recognition. Grab the value here on the Thunder as people expecting a game one scenario will be fooled on Tuesday. |
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05-10-16 | Brewers +151 v. Marlins | 10-2 | Win | 151 | 17 h 12 m | Show | |
Milwaukee 953 There likely isn't a team in baseball as unattractive ATS as the Brewers due to poor pitching from their starters and bullpen. Yet their opponent on Tuesday in the Marlins are at an overachieving point currently that is factored in at least an extra $15-$18 in Tuesday's money line spread. Offensively they've received above average performances from Stanton, Ozuna, Yelich, and Derek Dietrich recently. That was not enough against the Phillies on back to back occasions and I won't fall for the steep price on Tuesday. Zach Davies may not deserve to be in the rotation but did settle in with a better performance his last outing against the Angels. Ultimately the power bats of the Brewers should outpace those of the Marlins on Tuesday. Take the +150 here. |
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05-09-16 | Warriors v. Blazers +4.5 | 132-125 | Loss | -102 | 19 h 53 m | Show | |
Portland Trailblazers 532 Can the Portland Trailblazers continue to sway momentum against the juggernaut Golden State Warriors? Sure they can. Golden State will likely be without Steph Curry who is doubtful and believe the city of Portland will look to create another hostile environment. Golden State typically has answers with their offense to combat teams but the Trailblazers have an uncanny skill set with two guards in Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum who are causing havoc. I don't see the Warriors slowing them down Monday. Also, the Trailblazers are receiving under valued play from Al Faroug Aminu, Plumlee, and reserve Allen Crabbe off the bench. Don't fall for the bait of latching onto the Warriors ATS in game four. |
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05-09-16 | Pirates -119 v. Reds | 2-3 | Loss | -119 | 16 h 44 m | Show | |
Pittsburgh Pirates 903 The Cincinnati Reds bats look to keep in order as they open a home stand series against the Pittsburgh Pirates. Cincinnati's found some life in team hitting that has translated to scoring four runs or more in seven of their last eight games. Hot at the plate has been Brandon Phillips who has belted five home runs in his last five games. Still, the Reds deficiencies are glaring on the mound. Monday they'll send Dan Straily to square off against veteran Jon Niese. Straily did come through with a win in his last outing but I'm expecting a decline Monday. Look for the Pirates increased activity at the plate to continue and carry over against the Reds bullpen. |
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05-07-16 | Rays v. Angels +120 | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 16 m | Show | |
LA Angels 928 Bad news for the Angels has hit as they've lost ace Garrett Richards for the season and likely will receive the same news with Andrew Heiney. That puts pressure on Saturday's starter in Jared Weaver to carry forth as the veteran he is. Furthermore the Angels have not been the juggernaut at the plate offensively as their production has been primarily with Mike Trout. The tall task against Jake Odorizzi has rose this opening spread from -120 to -130 on the Rays side of things. Yet, I like the Angels to battle here at the plate. Maybe not convincingly but enough to get after a rocky Rays pen. Grab the Angels as home dogs to cash for us on Saturday. |
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05-06-16 | Spurs v. Thunder +2.5 | 100-96 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 10 m | Show | |
Oklahoma City Thunder (520) Maturity has never been a word linked with Oklahoma City Thunder stars Kevin Durant and Russ Westbrook. Yet, it appears the Western Conference's dominance has reshaped their games and uplifted their team's play. Winning on the road in San Antonio doesn't happen often and the Thunder accomplished that in game two. The Spurs regular season success of 67 wins is the sole reason why they're favored Friday. As stated in Saturday's free play winner, I expect the value beyond game one to continue to drift towards the Thunder. They're a confident group that has the team balance to clear the Spurs Friday. Grab the Thunder. |
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05-06-16 | Phillies v. Marlins -125 | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 20 h 34 m | Show | |
Miami Marlins (954) The Philadelphia Phillies are gaining traction with their young pitching getting the job done to lead them to an above .500 record. Yet, concern still lies at the plate as they've had issues gaining run support for their aces. A three run homer by Ryan Howard against a shaken Mike Leake and an RBI have been the lone producing runs for the Phillies over their last two games. Meanwhile the Marlins seem to be adding dimensions to their team. Pitching has been above average and the bullpen is starting to round into form. At the plate expect the Marlins balanced lineup to continue to flourish against the young Phillies prospect in Velasquez. |
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05-06-16 | Cavs v. Hawks +3 | 121-108 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 30 m | Show | |
Atlanta Hawks (518) Cleveland's historic three point night on Wednesday just adds to the mind boggling execution they've shown throughout the playoffs. Seemingly Atlanta has to find answers in less than forty eight hours or they're going to be quickly finished by the Cavaliers. Having lost nine straight to Cleveland you'd expect game three to handily go to the Cavaliers. Not so fast as the Hawks have toyed with poor play in round one and in the regular season on the road against Cleveland. At home they've showcased to be a much more balanced and solid team. Look for the Hawks to play a playoff level game and garner an ATS cover Friday. |
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05-05-16 | Heat v. Raptors -4.5 | 92-96 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 4 m | Show | |
Toronto Raptors (516) All signs point to fade the Raptors. They've lost five straight ATS decisions and four of five at home. It's a peculiar scenario as the Raptors were a dominant home team boasting a 32-9 regular season record. Offensively their issues remain unsolved as they melted in a key third quarter stretch that proved to be the difference in game one. Yet, I think the Heat are the team that will show ill effects offensively in game two. This is their fourth game in seven days and third on the road. In game one Joe Johnson, D Wade, and Dragic shot sixty of their eighty nine team shots. That's a bit high and I'm not sure the Heat have the balance to find other solutions offensively. Grab the Raptors to finally come to life and showcase their true depth against the tired Heat. |
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05-05-16 | Yankees v. Orioles -113 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 20 h 55 m | Show | |
Baltimore (916) The Yankees broke out their hitting in yesterday's 7-0 rout win. Baltimore has battled the .500 woes as of late as they seem to not be able to convert hits into runs lately. A solid duel is in line for Thursday as Masahiro Tanka takes on Baltimore's ace Kevin Gausman. Gausman with just two starts on the season has had unfortunate luck to not register a win yet. Baltimore's also been reserved to extend him after returning from the DL. Yet, I think Thursday Baltimore can get back to their winning ways with Gausman leading the charge. Run support may not be fantastic but expect the Orioles to do just enough to get us the Thursday MLB win. |
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05-04-16 | Hawks +7 v. Cavs | 98-123 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 59 m | Show | |
Atlanta (513) Game one between the Hawks and Cavaliers featured a lethargic Cavs team that still coasted to a double digit win. With a game in the books you'd expect the Cavs to improve upon their lethargic game one and cruise in game two. Not exactly. I believe this Hawks team found some confidence in their loss with key penetration from Dennis Schroder. Dating back to last year's playoffs this is a team that has now lost eight consecutive games to the Cavaliers. Look for Atlanta to increase their defensive intensity and disrupt the fluid offense the Cavaliers have showcased in five playoff games. Take the Hawks plus the points. |
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05-02-16 | Thunder v. Spurs -7.5 | 98-97 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 41 m | Show | |
Spurs (510) One would expect the OKC Thunder to raise their level of play following game one's blowout loss to the Spurs. Although I did say in my free play winner that I do expect the Thunder to gain value as the series goes on, I don't see that happening in game two. It's a quick turn around from Saturday's blowout loss and I just don't see the Thunder coming up with necessary adjustments on the road. San Antonio's offense should continue to click on all cylinders which is the main story line in grabbing them as steep favorites at home Monday. OKC's defense is a problem and until the Thunder can get Ibaka, Kanter, and Adams to buy-in it's going to be a troublesome beginning. Grab the Spurs to roll again. |
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05-02-16 | Hawks v. Cavs -7 | 93-104 | Win | 100 | 8 h 12 m | Show | |
Cavs (504) Game one between the Cavs and Hawks begins today. I do have this one going seven games but in game one we'll look at the Cavaliers to come out with proper aggression. After all the Cavaliers did sweep the regular season series and last year's Eastern Conference Finals four games to none. Atlanta is going to have to adjust their style after struggling against the Celtics to showcase an offensive identity. In fact, only Kyle Korver shot above 41% in the Celtics series at the guard position. Cleveland should be able to jump start game one and grab an ATS cover based on continued dominance in half court offensive sets. Grab the Cavaliers. |
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05-01-16 | Pacers v. Raptors -5.5 | 84-89 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 59 m | Show | |
Toronto (726) In sports often times we see the same occurrence. A team lets a golden opportunity slip and eventually pays for it. Indiana may have won game six on their home floor but in my opinion the series was lost in game five. That was a game they handily were ahead in and botched the fourth quarter entirely. Toronto may not be playing their best basketball but they're in a game seven position on their home floor. There's a reason low seeds don't advance to often. Toronto rides their home crowd and finds away to get into the second round. Take the Raptors. |
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05-01-16 | White Sox v. Orioles +120 | 7-1 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 29 m | Show | |
Baltimore (918) The White Sox have soaring ATS value as they're 17-8 and have undefeated ace Chris Sale on the mound Sunday at 5-0. Opposite Sale is the unattractive underdog Ubaldo Jimenez. Jimenez is an obvious decline portion of his career as he's struggled to maintain velocity and command in outings. Yet, Baltimore has the power bats to give Sale a bit of trouble. In yesterday's game they hit Latos hard enough to warrant a win. Now I'm not saying Latos is Sale's caliber but contact is contact, and I like the way the Orioles are seeing the ball to close this series. Look for the Orioles rusty bullpen to get things back in order and collectively to cut down on errors (two in yesterday's loss) |
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04-30-16 | Marlins -116 v. Brewers | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 52 m | Show | |
Miami (959) The slumping Brewers are looking to stop a slide that has witnessed losses in nine of their last twelve games. To do so they'll need to attack the plate much better as they've scored three runs or less in seven of those nine losses. The bottom line is the Brewers struggling pitching staff is not solid enough to withstand mediocre run support. Today I'm anticipating that being the case once again as Chris Anderson takes the mound. Anderson has had two consecutive rough outings after starting the season off with a solid start against the Astros. There should be no change in the tendency of Anderson struggling to last past the fourth inning as he has given up three homers and nineteen hits in his past two starts. While this may be a spot many are anticipating landing the home Brewers, I'll side with the value of the road Marlins. |
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04-29-16 | Raptors v. Pacers -2 | 83-101 | Win | 100 | 14 h 40 m | Show | |
Indiana (712) Value lies with the Pacers on Friday in a crucial game six at home. We all know the meltdown that occurred in the fourth quarter, but Indiana has completely dominated seven of the last eight quarters of the series. Keep in mind at home Toronto was a juggernaut all season long as a fourth quarter team that rivaled the Warriors. Surely if Indiana had won game five, they'd be a minimum 3.5 point favorites Friday. I expect them to ride the need to win and get back to the defensive strengths they've showcased the past two games. This series heads gets decided in seven games. Grab the Pacers. |
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04-27-16 | Hornets v. Heat -5.5 | 90-88 | Loss | -106 | 19 h 9 m | Show | |
Miami Heat (576) The Hornets have made things interesting winning two games on their home floor. Yet all I believe that's done is create ATS value on the Heat the rest of the way. Miami showcased in games one and two what they're capable of when they hone in defensively. For whatever reason on the road they could not match that same level of intensity as guards Jeremy Lin and Kemba Walker carved them up. Quietly though they've bottled up the Hornets interior. In game four alone the Hornets Marvin Williams, Al Jefferson, Spencer Hawes, Frank Kaminsky, and Cody Zeller shot a combined nine for twenty eight from the field. Look for the Heat to get the ebb and flow offense back at home and for the Hornets to suffer to sustain offense as a result. |
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04-26-16 | Pirates v. Rockies +125 | 9-4 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 4 m | Show | |
Colorado Rockies (958) Something about Jorge De La Rosa on the mound catches my attention. Oddsmakers have shifted the value of the lefty as he continues to struggle with location, ERA, and a gamut of command issues. Yet, De La Rosa is only a small part of the puzzle Tuesday. The Rockies potent early start has simmered as of late losing five of their last six. With Pittsburgh taking game one with ease yesterday coupled with Gerrit Cole's gem last week, I see value on the underdog Rockies. As typical in a De La Rosa start nothing will be pretty. Look for the Rockies bats to uplift the Rockies pitching to cash in on yet another underdog. |
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04-26-16 | White Sox -122 v. Blue Jays | 10-1 | Win | 100 | 18 h 39 m | Show | |
Chicago White Sox (965) The White Sox had a stunning come from behind win as the Blue Jays blew a 5-1 lead. Five runs in the top of the seventh keyed the White Sox rally. Chicago's been a team still under the radar even though they have a quality record of 14-6. Solid pitching and timely hitting has been their fortune to success and I see that trickling over Tuesday. On the mound for the White Sox is ace Chris Sale who will welcome the challenge of the Blue Jays bats. While I expect RA Dickey to have a comparable solid outing, I expect the White Sox early winning pedigree to trump the 10-11 BlueJays. Grab the Sox, Tuesday. |
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04-26-16 | Pacers +7 v. Raptors | 99-102 | Win | 100 | 17 h 40 m | Show | |
Indiana Pacers (569) Indiana is coming off their best offensive output in terms of field goal percentage as they shot 47.1% in game four. In fact, the Raptors never crawled within double-digits in game four after trailing 28-16 at the end of the first quarter. This series is now the best of three, and I see it even getting tighter than what we've seen. With that in mind I think you have to toss out the Raptors superb 32-9 home record in the regular season. Grab the value of the Pacers who have rotated their dialed in defense on the Raptors first unit and rolled it to the Raptors second unit as well. |
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04-25-16 | Clippers v. Blazers +4 | 84-98 | Win | 100 | 10 h 34 m | Show | |
Portland (566) I find it odd that this line has gained in value on the Trailblazers off of game three. In game three the Trailblazers were just two point underdogs and now find themselves as 3.5 point underdogs. The Clippers do have the better starting five but still are missing the ebb and flow you need on the road. Keep in mind Blake Griffin is still getting acclimated after three and a half months off. The bench has been sporadic and JJ Redick is coming off a poor performance in game three. Portland has confidence and it's not just with their lethal guards in McCollum and Lillard. Mason Plumlee had a dominating game three in the interior with 21 rebounds and nine assists. Grab the value on Portland and look for the Blazers to play even better than game three tonight. |
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04-25-16 | Indians v. Twins +127 | 3-4 | Win | 127 | 9 h 46 m | Show | |
Minnesota (920) The Twins catch a red-hot Cleveland Indians team at home on Monday. Cleveland is coming off a three-game sweep of the Detroit Tigers in which they found they produced eighteen runs. To contain the Indians hot bats the Twins send veteran pitcher Tommy Milone to the mound. Milone's ERA of 5.87 does not seem warranting of backing Monday, but I expect the Indians bats to taper off a bit from their Tigers series. Indians ace Danny Salazar is not going to back down from the Twins power lineup. Look for the Twins to recover from yesterday's tough extra inning loss to the Nationals and grab their sixth win of the season. |
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04-25-16 | Heat v. Hornets -2 | 85-89 | Win | 100 | 6 h 5 m | Show | |
Charlotte (562) Even though the Hornets will be without Batum I still see value in the Hornets. Sometimes a team can catch too much attention ATS with their first two home games. Frankly that looks to be the case with the Miami Heat who throttled the Hornets on their home floor in games one and two. Yet to win a series you need to showcase that capability with four wins not just two. I have strong concerns with how the Heat looked in game three and the confidence they gave a Hornets team that is underrated offensively. During the regular season they scored 103.4 points per game. They have a skill set most playoff teams can't boast with two big men that can stretch the floor in Spencer Hawes and Frank Kaminsky. They're also getting great play from Jeremy Lin and Al Jefferson off the bench. The Hornets just lacked the energy in games one and two needed to pull off road wins. Look for this series to draw even in become a series destined for seven games. |
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04-24-16 | Red Sox v. Astros -105 | 7-5 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 57 m | Show | |
Houston Astros (978) Tonight we'll aim to capitalize on the Astros home stand against the Red Sox. Houston sends veteran Scott Feldman to the mound and the Red Sox we'll send Henry Owens. Both have ERA's over four on the young season. Yesterday Houston snapped a four game losing streak thanks to a grand slam from Colby Rasmus off of Red Sox pitcher Clay Bucholtz. Can the Astros find a way to get their first win-streak of the season? That's why I waited to post this play overnight as I knew the line would swing towards Boston's way and present better value for us tonight. People see that the young bats of the Red Sox are on fire and the fact that the Astros have not won consecutive games all season. The season is still far too young to cast the Astros as cellar dwellers in the AL West. Grab the value on the Astros tonight. |
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04-23-16 | Clippers v. Blazers +1.5 | 88-96 | Win | 100 | 16 h 9 m | Show | |
Portland Trailblazers (552) Saturday's lone play comes in the night cap between the Portland Trailblazers and LA Clippers. Many thought the Trailblazers would give the Clippers difficulties to start the series in LA. That has not been the case as the Clippers offense has overwhelmed the Trailblazers along with cold shooting from Portland. Yet, a series can change with a team's ability to defend their home court. LA has seemingly been unchallenged since Blake Griffin returned to the lineup. In fact disregarding the final regular season game in which the starters sat out for rest, the Clippers have won eight consecutive games with Griffin in the lineup. Grab Portland to get back in the series and defend their home floor as they've played far below their capabilities in LA. |
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04-22-16 | Mariners v. Angels +110 | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 58 m | Show | |
LA Angels (978) We're 12-6 ATS to start the MLB season. Lets tack on another winner before the weekend. For a value play we'll look at the LA Angels. They found some success against the White Sox in winning two games. Yesterday's narrow 3-2 win does not look impressive from an offensive stand point, but I see it as such. All-Star Mike Trout finally broke out of a mini-slump to start the season to connect on a home run and go 2-2 at the plate. Friday, Seattle will likely have backers as they surged past the Cleveland Indians in consecutive wins and scored an impressive ten runs Thursday. Yet, this is another road game and I'm leery of the struggles Felix Hernandez has showcased especially with his walk rate. He's walked thirteen batters in three starts. Grab the value on the home Angels to grab game one Friday. |
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04-22-16 | Hawks v. Celtics -2.5 | 103-111 | Win | 100 | 21 h 58 m | Show | |
Boston Celtics (542) The Celtics offense has no where to go but up after another horrific offensive display in game two. In fact, Isiah Thomas, Jae Crowder, and Marcus Smart combined to shoot just six for thirty-five from the field. Things got so bad that Brad Stevens inserted rookies Terry Rozier and R.J. Hunter in extended minutes of playing time. Rozier's twenty-four minutes were a season high and Hunter's the highest since December 26th. Certainly the Celtics offensive woes are troublesome but lets not be blindsided by one game. They overcame the same problems in game one to take a lead against the Hawks, and played well enough defensively in game two to make the game manageable. Atlanta is an untrustworthy team on the road and I believe the Celtics will get enough done to support backing Friday. |
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04-22-16 | Cavs v. Pistons +5 | 101-91 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 58 m | Show | |
Detroit Pistons (540) The eighth seed Detroit Pistons have given the Cavaliers two strong efforts and still came up short. In Wednesday's loss the Cavaliers went nuts from three point range draining twenty attempts on thirty eight shots. Igniting the spark from downtown was JR Smith who scored all seven of his baskets from three point range. Yet, I like how the Pistons fought in the fourth quarter to fight close to the ten point closing line. A key take away from the first two games is the fact that the Pistons have controlled the interior. Cavaliers Tristan Thompson and Timofey Mozgov have combined to score two points along with seven rebounds in the first two games. This is a short span from Wednesday's game two and I expect the Pistons to showcase the same energy they've brought forth in games one and two. Don't expect the Cavaliers to stay red-hot from three. Grab the value on the Pistons. |
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04-21-16 | Warriors v. Rockets +5 | 96-97 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show | |
Houston Rockets (538) To me the Golden State Warriors may be a bit too cocky at this point. Even Coach Steve Kerr lamented that the depth of the Warriors is good enough to win without Stephen Curry. The fact of the matter is without Curry the Warriors scoring needs two to three guys to fill the void. That's a lot to be asked against a Rockets team that can score in bunches. How will the Warriors react to a 40 point quarter from the Rockets? I expect to see one game of solid four quarters of effort from the Rockets, and we'll get that today. Too much is at stake with the media harping on Rockets players Dwight Howard and James Harden. I also believe the Rockets role players are more than capable of providing proper balance in a do or die game three. Grab the value on the Rockets Thursday. |
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04-21-16 | Raptors -1 v. Pacers | 101-85 | Win | 100 | 10 h 9 m | Show | |
Toronto (535) There's a lot of people swaying from the Raptors to Pacers to take this series. Look for that to reverse after game three. In an NBA series things can change vastly from game to game. I like the tweaks Coach Duane Casey made in game two by replacing Norman Powell from the starting lineup but still giving him starters minutes. It ignited the Raptors offense out the gate. Even though the offense tapered when Powell was inserted in the first half, in the second half he aided in the pull away run. Defensively I also believe the Raptors are gaining ground on the Pacers. Indiana's limited behind the capabilities of Paul George. Veteran Monta Ellis shows flashes but is no longer a viable second-scoring option. Young players in Myles Turner and Solomon Hill are streaky role players which leaves Indiana vulnerable. While Indiana may get out to a fast start, the Raptors depth will be too much for the Pacers. This is a baiting line that will get many. Don't fall for it. Grab the Raptors. |
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04-21-16 | Twins v. Brewers -110 | 8-1 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 5 m | Show | |
Milwaukee (926) Right now there may not be a team hitting the ball as well as the Brewers. They scored ten runs last night after a solid series of production against the Pirates. Don't forget there 7-4 loss to the Twins with Phil Hughes on the mound came without the final three innings as a result of a three-hour rain delay. Thursday's Twins pitcher Ricky Nolasco is certainly on the downside of his career. Â He's coming off a nine hit performance against the Angels and I see the hot bats of the Twins getting after him as well. The only reason this money line is not higher is because of Taylor Jungmann's inflated ERA from eight runs in two innings against the Cardinals. Grab the value here on the Brew-Crew. |
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