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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-29-19 | Blues +102 v. Stars | Top | 4-3 | Win | 102 | 25 h 51 m | Show |
10* St. Louis (8:05 ET): After sitting out the first two games, I'll finally make the jump into this series. (I've played at least one game of each of the other three second round series). Spoiler alert: I like the Blues in this series, but wanted to sit back and wait for the best spot to grab them. That time appears to be now. While Game 3 is in Dallas and the Stars are 4-1 this year vs. the Blues, St. Louis still grades out as the better team in my eyes, especially in the key metric of Corsi For % where they rank a strong 9th overall. Dallas is only 24th, second worst among playoff teams (Islanders). St. Louis certainly had no issue winning on the road in Round 1. They went 3-0 at Winnipeg, which is a tough place to play. The Jets were 25-12-4 SU at home in the regular season. Of course, the Blues have done plenty of winning over the last several months as they entered the playoffs as arguably the hottest team in the Western Conference. Even after losing Game 2, they are still 29-13 SU in their last 42 games. Whereas Dallas ranked 2nd in the league in goals allowed during the regular season, St. Louis wasn't far behind, tied for 5th. In the playoffs, the Blues have given up 22 goals in eight games. The Stars have given up just 17 in the same number of games. But despite this, I think it's still worth mentioning that Dallas was only 28th in goals per game in the regular season. So after allowing four goals in Game 2, expect Blues goalie Jordan Bennington to have a bounce back game here. He led the league in goals against average (GAA) at 1.89 and remember that him taking over between the pipes was a real catalyst for the total team turnaround. The Blues have won five straight as underdogs. 10* St. Louis |
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04-28-19 | Avalanche v. Sharks UNDER 6 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 31 h 3 m | Show |
10* Under Avs/Sharks (7:05 ET): Game 1 of this series saw San Jose storm back from an early 2-1 deficit to win 5-2. The game clearly swung in the second period when the Sharks scored three straight times after killing off a four-minute penalty. They added an empty-netter for the final margin and the Over. There were not a ton of shots on goal in Game 1, so while seven of the previous eight meetings between these teams have gone Over the total (including five straight), I think we're in for a lower scoring Game 2. Take the Under here. San Jose has beaten Colorado all four times they've played this season. In all four wins, the Sharks have scored at least four goals, three times scoring five. That's not a recipe for success if you're the Avalanche, so they'll definitely have to "tighten up" if they want to take this series. Do I think the Avs are going to win this series? Not really, but I wouldn't want to fade them in this spot, especially at the "going rate." Remember, after losing Game 1 to Calgary in Round 1, the Avs would take four straight and hold the Flames to just seven total goals. The Flames were one of the highest scoring teams in the league. San Jose averages 3.7 goals per game on home, so they will be difficult to stop. But Calgary averaged more than 4.0 gpg on home ice, so the Avs have "been here before." As for their own scoring here, I'm not expecting them to have two goals on the board by early in the second period again. The Under is 5-1 the L6 times the Avs have been off a loss by 3+ goals, including Game 2 of the Calgary series. Since falling down 3-1 in their first round series w/ Vegas, the Sharks have been on fire. But remember that if it wasn't for that gift penalty in Game 7, they probably wouldn't be here at all. Look for them to start to cool down offensively. 10* Under Avs/Sharks |
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04-26-19 | Hurricanes +125 v. Islanders | Top | 1-0 | Win | 125 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
10* Carolina (7:08 ET): I'm going to be putting "my foot down" (so to speak) in this series as I firmly believe Carolina is the better team here. Yes, they come in off a grueling 7-game series w/ Washington while the Islanders had a shockingly easy go of it in the 1st round, sweeping Pittsburgh. But that same "situational disadvantage" had little impact on the Bruins last night, though they were skating at home. Still, I lean on the fact the Hurricanes lead the league in Corsi For %, while the Isles rank a poor 27th in that key metric. Just like they did vs. the Capitals, I expect Carolina to control the puck in this series. I'm calling for a Game 1 "upset." The Islanders' transformation under HC Barry Trotz (who led Washington to the Stanley Cup LY) has been stunning. Last year's team gave up the most goals in league history over an 82-game season. This year's team allowed the fewest number of goals in the entire league! Goalie Robin Lehner held the Penguins to just six goals in four games. But I expect puck possession to play a vital role in this series. The bottom line is that no team is better in that department than Carolina. Lehner is going to face more shots than usual in this series. Carolina led the league in both shots per game and shot differential in the regular season. While there is some concern about the Hurricanes being only 48 hrs removed from a Game 7 (on the road) that required double overtime, the old issue of "rust" may very well apply here to the Islanders. They haven't played in 10 days. The Isles are just 2-5 SU this season when taking the ice on 3+ days rest. Despite more than doubling up Pittsburgh in goals scored in Round 1, the Islanders were outshot in the series. That catches up with them in Round 2 in what is a bad matchup (for them). Carolina has now won 34 of its last 51 games. 10* Carolina |
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04-25-19 | Blue Jackets v. Bruins UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
10* Under Blue Jackets/Bruins (7:05 ET): Columbus shocked the world in Round 1 by sweeping the 62-win Lightning. It wasn't just that the Blue Jackets advanced though; it was how. A 4-game sweep of a team that had outscored them 17-3 in the regular season and set various records in the process. Meanwhile, the Bruins had a much more challenging path to the second round as they were taken a full seven games by the Maple Leafs. But the bottom line is that Boston is one of only two higher seeds that won its first round series (San Jose being the other). These teams went almost a full calendary year w/o facing one another. But then they faced off three times in the final month of the regular season w/ the Bruins winning twice, including an overtime game in Columbus. The two games decided in regulation were both blowouts w/ the winning side scoring at least six goals. Nine of the last 10 meetings have gone Over the total, which is a bit of a surprise considering neither team is generally regarded as an "Over squad." In fact, both teams have seen far more Unders than Overs this season. Boston scored 4+ goals in all four victories in the 1st round series w/ Toronto. But in the three losses, they were held to two goals or fewer (just 4 goals total). This is a tough spot for the B's w/ them coming off a 7-game series while C-bus is off a 4-game sweep. Perhaps it's a question of "rest vs. rust," but the bottom line is that I do NOT see Boston winning a high-scoring game tonight. Fortunately, they were #3 in the league in goals allowed during the regular season. The Blue Jackets somehow held the Lightning (top scoring team in the L20 years!) to just eight goals in four games. The Under is 4-0 for Boston the L4 times they've faced an opponent that scored 5+ goals in its last game. In the close out game vs. TB, the Blue Jackets won 7-3. 10* Under Blue Jackets/Bruins |
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04-24-19 | Hurricanes +145 v. Capitals | Top | 4-3 | Win | 145 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
9* Carolina (7:35 ET): While there's been a very real home ice advantage so far in this series (home team is 6-0), I'm going to call for the road team to prevail here. Even though the teams have scored the same number of goals, my view is that Carolina has played better. They've outshot Washington 192-153, which is pretty substantial over a six-game sample size. I'm also going to again lean on the fact that the Canes are #1 in the league in Corsi For %, a key metric that actually foretold the Blue Jackets stunning 1st round upset of the Lightning. Carolina's defense has certainly frustrated the Capitals throughout the series and the 'Canes ability to get the puck on net has been a strength all season long. They were #1 in shots per game in the regular season as well as shot differential. An "X-factor" here is Carolina captain Justin Williams, who has an incredible history in Game 7's. He has 14 career points in Game 7's, an NHL record, with seven goals and seven assists. None of that has come w/ Carolina, but he brings not just Game 7 experience, but success, to the table. Washington goaltender Braden Holtby has a 3-4 SU career record in Game 7s. It would be easy to look at the home team being 6-0 in this series and go w/ the Caps, but my feeling is Carolina has been the better team and they steal Game 7. No repeat in the Nation's capital. 9* Carolina |
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04-22-19 | Predators +113 v. Stars | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 18 m | Show |
10* Nashville (8:35 ET): It's not just shocking that the Predators dropped Game 5, it's how. For the second game in a row, they allowed five goals. This was the #3 team in goals allowed during the regular season. Game 5 saw them allow five goals on just 26 shots, the second straight shaky performance from goalie Pekka Rinne. The Preds are now in danger of being the third division champ to get bounced from these playoffs and fifth higher seed to lose. I don't see that happening though, at least not yet. I like the Preds at 'plus money' in Game 6. I admit that I took Nashville in Game 5. I believe them to be the better team here as they rank significantly higher than Dallas in Corsi For %. Simply put, they do a better job at possessing the puck. They've outshot the Stars in all but one game in the series. But the last two games have not gone well w/ them losing 5-1 and 5-3. In the case of Game 4, that could be chalked up to a Dallas' power play scoring three times in the first period. But there were no PP goals allowed in Game 5, yet the Stars were still able to put together a three goal period. Why will it be different this time around for Nashville? Well, for starters, Dallas was just 9-26 SU after scoring 5+ goals prior to the previous game. Remember that during the regular season the Stars ranked just 28th in the league in goals per game, easily the lowest among all 16 playoff teams. Thus it's been pretty shocking to see them score 10 times in the L2 games, especially against a team like Nashville. My read is that the Predators are the better team in this series. They still have time to prove that. 10* Nashville |
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04-21-19 | Sharks v. Golden Knights UNDER 6.5 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 20 h 43 m | Show |
10* Under Sharks/Knights (7:05 ET): Four 1st round playoff series are now complete and in all four the lower seeded team has advanced. That's pretty crazy. The most notable upsets have obviously been the top seed in each conference bowing out, including the shocking sweep of Tampa Bay by Columbus. Vegas looks to keep the trend of lower-seeded teams advancing Sunday night in Sin City. While the Golden Knights didn't have the home ice advantage coming into the series, they were able to take Game 2 in San Jose. Then came a pair of wins here at home where of course they have been magical since coming into existence. The Golden Knights have already failed in their first shot in closing out the series as they lost Game 5 in San Jose by a score of 5-2. Facing elimination, the Sharks got off to a fast start, scoring just 76 seconds into the game. They never trailed and spent most of the game enjoying a multi-goal advantage. However, here at T-Mobile Arena, the Golden Knights have to like their chances. They are 62-25-7 SU the L2 years at home, including 9-3 in playoff games. They won Game 3 by a score of 6-3 and Game 4 by a score of 5-0. The winning team of every game in this series has scored a minimum of five goals. The only game to stay Under thus far was the Game 4 shutout here in Vegas. I expect the Knights not to give up many again tonight as they were third best in the league in the regular season when it came to # of goals allowed at home. The Under is 6-1 the last 7 games in Vegas. 10* Under Sharks/Knights |
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