For any resources you could need like sports handicapping odds, handicapping stats, schedules, or handicappers free picks and tips please click on any of the links on the right hand side of this page.
CLICK A CAPPERS NAME TO SEE THEIR PREMIUM DAILY EXPERT PLAYS + PREDICTIONS!
Schedule: NFL | CFB | MLB | NBA | CBB | NHL
WANT FREE SPORTS PICKS to your inbox? | Newsletter Sign-UP!
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
04-02-21 | Bucks v. Blazers +3.5 | Top | 127-109 | Loss | -107 | 15 h 41 m | Show |
8* Portland (10:05 ET): The Blazers have overachieved a bit in getting to 11 games over .500. I say that based on the fact they’ve actually given up more points this season than they have scored. Typically, you won’t find a team with a negative YTD point differential sitting 11 games over .500. But there’s no denying the fact the Blazers are in better shape now than they’ve been at any point this season. Both CJ McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic are back in the lineup and the team has won four in a row. Milwaukee has the best point differential and net efficiency rating among Eastern Conference teams, but they are still only third in the standings. So you can make the case they’ve underachieved. They did snap a three-game losing streak Wednesday, but that win came against the depleted Lakers so it’s not like it could be called “impressive.” Prior to that, the Bucks were just 1-6 ATS their L7 games and what’s been concerning is some of their defensive efforts. They are allowing 114.8 PPG on the road this season. There are times when I’d look at how these teams have performed relative to their metrics and say it’s time for things to “balance out.” But this isn’t one of those times. Portland is coming off a 4-0 road trip (averaged 120.8 PPG) and is 7-2 SU its L9 games overall. Getting points with them at home looks to be a very nice value Friday night. The Bucks are just 2-7 ATS this year in games where the total is 230 or higher. The Blazers just turned in a 73-point second half in their most recent game, so take the points. 8* Portland |
|||||||
04-02-21 | White Sox v. Angels -114 | Top | 12-8 | Loss | -114 | 14 h 10 m | Show |
10* LA Angels (9:38 ET): The Angels stormed back to beat the White Sox yesterday by a score of 4-3. It was the team’s two key players - Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani - responsible for the two-run rally in the home half of the eighth inning. Trout tied the game with a single, then Ohtani later scored the go-ahead run on an Albert Pujols’ single. I look for there to be a bit of a “carryover” effect for the Halos going into tonight’s game when they send southpaw Andrew Heaney to the mound. Heaney is 3-0 with a 2.84 ERA in five previous starts against the White Sox. These teams did not play in LY’s truncated season, so it’ll be Chicago’s first time seeing Heaney since September 2019. Each of the L3 times he’s started against the White Sox, LA came out ahead. Two of those were quality starts by the left-hander and I anticipate he’ll pitch well tonight. The White Sox managed only seven hits last night and struck out a total of 10 times. The Halos are now 6-2 their L8 vs. the White Sox. Dallas Keuchel will start opposite Heaney here. Keuchel has had plenty of past success vs. LA as his career record against them is 12-2 with a 3.36 ERA. Keuchel had a fairly solid 2020 season, but he went a full six innings only three times. I know a lot is expected from Chicago this year, but right now they seem a bit overvalued and it will be tough to shake last night’s defeat. They are just 6-23 their L29 games in Anaheim. 10* LA Angels |
|||||||
04-02-21 | Wolves v. Grizzlies -6.5 | Top | 108-120 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
10* Memphis (8:05 ET): You probably don’t need me to tell you that Minnesota has been pretty dreadful this season. Stuck in last place in the Western Conference, the T’wolves’ only shot at escaping the basement is if Houston continues to tank. The T’wolves are off a win, 102-101 over the Knicks on Wednesday night, but that makes for an excellent time to fade as not only are they 1-10 SU this season off a win, but they are 3-7-1 ATS and been outscored by an average of 11.8 PPG in this situation. The one time that Minny won B2B games was when they started the season 2-0! Since then, it’s been 10 consecutive SU losses when off a win. Last time they were in this spot, they lost by 22 … to the Rockets (!) That was after beating the Rockets the previous night. Memphis is well-positioned to “step in” and do some damage here as they’ve covered six of their last seven contests. While only 4-3 SU in those same seven, all three losses were to the first place Jazz. Two of the three losses were by four points or less. The Grizzlies actually led the Jazz going into the 4Q here at home on Wednesday. They were obviously unable to hold that advantage, despite getting 36 (points) from Ja Morant, but it was still a solid effort. With them now favored, we need more than just a “solid effort” here, but considering how the team really needs the win to get back to .500 and move closer to the top eight in the West, I think we’ll get the Grizz at their best here. They easily defeated the T’wolves back in January, 118-107, and are 7-1 ATS against them the L3 seasons. Lay the points. 10* Memphis |
|||||||
04-02-21 | Orioles v. Red Sox -170 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -170 | 7 h 42 m | Show |
7* Boston (2:10 ET): So Mother Nature pushed Opening Day back for these teams as they were rained out yesterday. The Red Sox may not get back to the heights of their recent past, but they should definitely improve in 2021 under new skipper Alex Cora. Baltimore, on the other hand, appears to be headed for another dreadful season. They have a far lower projected win total than the Red Sox, who are expected to finish fourth in the AL East this season. In fact, the O’s season win total of 64.0 is the lowest in the entire AL. Nathan Eovaldi will get the starting nod for Boston today, in place of Eduardo Rodriguez, who is said to have a “dead arm.” Seeing as how health is a major concern in the Red Sox rotation right now, a lot will be expected of Eovaldi early on in the season. He was 4-2 w/ a 3.72 ERA in 2020 and finished strong by allowing 1 ER or fewer in each of his final four starts. Two of those were against the Orioles, one of them seeing him toss six shutout innings here at Fenway Park. There’s really no way to sugarcoat the Orioles’ chances here in 2021. Even a .500 finish seems highly unlikely despite them going 25-35 in the abbreviated 2020 season and finishing ahead of the Red Sox. Baltimore looks WORSE on paper this year and I don’t believe today’s starter (John Means) is going to be able to carry his club to victory in his 1st career Opening Day start. The O’s were 2-8 in Means’ starts last season including 0-6 the first six. He lasted only three innings the one time he faced Boston. 7* Boston |
|||||||
04-01-21 | Warriors v. Heat OVER 219.5 | Top | 109-116 | Win | 100 | 13 h 60 m | Show |
10* Over Warriors/Heat (8:05 ET): Coming out of the All-Star Break, Miami was as hot as any team in the league. They won their final seven games in February and a dominating performance against Cleveland on March 16th (113-98) was their 12th win in 13 games. But then they went into a tailspin, losing six in a row and failing to cover the spread in all six games. It should be noted four of those six losses were by four points or less. They’ve seemingly now “righted the ship” by winning two straight, both in low-scoring fashion, including 92-87 last night at Indiana which was my 10* Game of the Week. Tonight the Heat return home to face Golden State. The Warriors thankfully have Steph Curry back in their lineup and he led the way with 32 points in Monday’s 116-102 win over Chicago. Curry had missed the team’s previous five games and they’d lost four in a row without him. The Dubs currently sit ninth in the Western Conference standings with a two-game gap between them and 8th place. Realistically, it’s looking like they can finish no higher than 7th. In the weaker East, Miami can finish as high as 4th, even though they have a very similar record (to Golden State). Miami has been held to 85 pts or less more than anybody this season and is coming off B2B sub-100 point games. But I believe they rediscover their offense tonight. Victor Oladipo is set to debut and that will help. Not once has the Heat had a three-game stretch where they failed to top 105 points this season. The Over is 39-18-1 the L58 home games vs. a team with a sub-.400 win percentage on the road. Golden State’s road record is 9-15 SU/ATS. The Warriors average 112.7 PPG for the season and when these teams met in late February, the final score was 120-112 (GS won). That was right before Miami went on to win 12 of its next 13. 10* Over Warriors/Heat |
|||||||
04-01-21 | Rangers v. Royals -153 | Top | 10-14 | Win | 100 | 9 h 59 m | Show |
10* Kansas City (4:10 ET): Neither of these teams are expected to be very good this year. But Kansas City, even though their season win total dropped, is expected to be better and at least isn’t projected to finish last in their division (Detroit is). Texas has the lowest projected number of wins in the AL West as they went 22-38 in the truncated 2020 season and were outscored by a MLB-worst 88 runs. Starting on the road is not good for the Rangers as they are just 39-72 away from home since the start of the 2018 season, including a 14-36 record when priced between +125 and +175 as they are here. The Royals haven’t been viewed as “competitive” since 2017, but this could be the year they make a move back to .500. They have some talent in the everyday lineup, led by Jorge Soler, who led the American League in home runs back in 2019. The club will hand the ball to the underrated Brad Keller on Opening Day, hoping he can replicate LY’s form when made nine starts and didn’t give up a single run in five of them. The Rangers are not expected to hit well in 2021 and I look for Keller to induce a lot of ground ball outs here. Because of last season’s scheduling, these teams haven’t met in almost two years. KC is a lot better now than they were back in 2019 when they dropped five of seven to the Rangers. There are injury concerns in the Texas bullpen coming into the year and Opening Day starter Kyle Gibson had a fairly rough 2020, save for a couple starts late in the year against Houston. The Royals led the Cactus League (Spring Training) w/ a 16-8 record and ended last regular season on a 12-6 run. They are the call here. 10* Kansas City |
|||||||
03-31-21 | Heat -1.5 v. Pacers | Top | 92-87 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
10* Miami (7:05 ET): The Heat ended a 6-game losing streak on Monday with a 98-88 win in New York. They go for two (wins) in a row tonight in Indiana. I think it’s important to remember that prior to the six-game losing skid, the Heat had won 12 of 13 games. The vast majority of those six losses were close games. Two were to the Pacers, one of which was NOT close. They were both at home. So this is a big-time double revenge spot as Miami not only looks to stay in front of Indiana, but also move up the standings in the depth-shy Eastern Conference. The Pacers are off a 132-124 loss (as seven-point favorites) to the Wizards. They’d won four of five before that, including the two wins over Miami. The first saw them shoot the lights out (58.4 FG% including 20 of 33 from 3-pt range) while the second game went to OT. Prior to winning four of five, the Pacers went through a 2-8 stretch themselves, so they’ve had their own struggles. They are only 8-12 SU at home this season (6-14 ATS). In addition to that, they have one of the league’s worst overall ATS marks. The loss on Monday doesn’t bode well as Indiana is 0-3 ATS this season coming off a game where they allowed 130+ points. Miami isn’t quite at full strength, but they’re close. The recently acquired Victor Oladipo is ill and not expected to play here. But Goran Dragic returned to the lineup Monday after missing four games. Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo combined for 47 points against the Knicks (Adebayo had 18 rebounds too) while Duncan Robinson and Tyler Herro combined for 32 more. It was one of the Heat’s better defensive efforts this season and after the six-game slide, I believe this team is due to start turning things around in a positive direction. The double revenge angle is strong here and the Pacers won’t shoot the ball the way they did in the first meeting. The Pacers have also given up 132 or more in two of their last four games. 10* Miami |
|||||||
03-30-21 | Hawks v. Suns OVER 222.5 | Top | 110-117 | Win | 100 | 14 h 25 m | Show |
10* Over Hawks/Suns (10:05 ET): These have been two of my favorite teams to watch this season, so I’m pretty excited about the matchup. Atlanta is 6th in the East with a .500 SU record, but I look for them to finish higher than their current standing by season’s end. Right now, they are in the middle of an eight-game road trip. You may recall that I had the Over in their last game, which cashed and ended up being a 126-102 loss in Denver. That dropped them to 2-3 on the trip, but they easily could have won the other two games they lost. Phoenix is a surprising second in the West, ahead of both the Clippers and Lakers. They are 3.5 games behind first place Utah after winning two straight in low-scoring fashion. Wins over Toronto (104-100) and Charlotte (101-97) made it a successful trip of their own out East (won three of four). The game vs. Charlotte on Sunday afternoon was really low-scoring when you consider it went to overtime. At the end of regulation, things were knotted at 90 apiece. But I’ll chalk that up to the usual “Sunday afternoon hangover” so many teams seem to experience in those early games. The Suns shot only 35.4% against the Hornets on Sunday and I look for them to easily improve upon that number tonight. Atlanta has let its last two opponents shoot north of 50%. For the year, Phoenix averages 115.3 PPG on 49.2% shooting at home. They are #8 in offensive efficiency. Atlanta is 13-3 Over following a DD loss and their L3 games with a total south of 232.5 have all gone Over. 10* Over Hawks/Suns |
|||||||
03-30-21 | UCLA v. Michigan UNDER 136 | Top | 51-49 | Win | 100 | 14 h 11 m | Show |
10* Under UCLA/Michigan (9:57 ET): UCLA is now the lone double-digit seed (they are an 11) in the Tournament. They’ve had to win FOUR games just to get here as they were in the “First Four.” The Bruins are the first “First Four” team to reach the Elite 8 since the famous 2011 VCU team that made it all the way to the Final Four for Shaka Smart. Give them their due, but two of UCLA’s wins have come in overtime, one of those the “First Four” game (vs. Michigan State) where they trailed most of the way. They got a weak 6-seed (BYU) and then a 14-seed (Abilene Christian) in the Round of 32. However, there was nothing “phony” at all about the way Mick Cronin’s team defeated 2-seed Alabama in the Sweet 16. Yes, the game went to OT, but the Bruins did lead most of the way. I think what is interesting is the fact the game would have stayed Under if not for OT. There were only 130 total points scored in regulation before a very high scoring extra five minutes. None of UCLA’s last three games have eclipsed the 135-point mark in regulation. Michigan, a top 10 team nationally in defensive efficiency, holds teams to 65.6 PPG on 39.3% shooting for the season. After struggling some against LSU in the Round of 32, Michigan looked very impressive in a blowout win (76-58) over Florida State in the Sweet 16. They are 8-1 Under this season following a game where they allowed 60 points or less. The Under has also gone 6-1 in their games with a total of 130 to 139.5 and is 8-2 the L10 times they’ve played with one or zero days’ rest. With UCLA playing at a bottom 20 pace (# of possessions per game) in the country, I see this ending up being a relatively low-scoring game. The Wolverines are without their second leading scorer and made only three 3-pointers vs. FSU. 10* Under UCLA/Michigan |
|||||||
03-30-21 | USC +8.5 v. Gonzaga | Top | 66-85 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
8* USC (7:15 ET): Southern Cal promises to be the toughest test for Gonzaga (29-0 SU) this season. While the Zags do hold early season victories over the likes of Iowa and Kansas, neither of those teams play defense the way the Trojans do. Ironically, USC could have faced both Iowa and Kansas on their path to the Elite 8. But the Hawkeyes got bounced early. Kansas was USC’s 2nd round opponent and was no match as the Trojans won that game “going away” 85-51 (as 1-pt favorites) in what may have been the most impressive single-game effort I’ve seen in the Tournament thus far. In addition to destroying Kansas, USC has beaten 11th seeded Drake and 7-seed Oregon to get here. As I alluded to above, it has been their defense that has led the way. After watching them hold both Drake and Kansas below 30% shooting, I had no choice but to roll with the Trojans in the Sweet 16. Same as their regular season matchup against the Ducks, they rolled to a big first half lead and coasted from there. Not only did USC hold Oregon to 37.7% shooting (including 5 of 21 from 3-pt range), but they shot 57.4% themselves (10 of 14 from three). They’ve now shot better than 50% from the floor each of their L4 games. Gonzaga is obviously the best offensive/overall team in the country, but they’ve failed to hit their season average in PPG in six of the last seven contests. The Bulldogs actually generate a very high percentage of their offense from two-pointers, which could be a problem here as USC has held opponents to 41.5% on 2PA this season, which is #1 in the country! USC has been an underdog only five times this season and never by more than +3.5. This is a lot of points for the #4 ranked defensive team in the country to be getting. The fact this is Gonzaga’s first single digit spread since December is significant. 8* USC |
|||||||
03-29-21 | Arkansas v. Baylor OVER 147.5 | Top | 72-81 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
8* Over Arkansas/Baylor (9:57 ET): Both of these teams average more than 80 points per game and are off poor shooting efforts from three-point range. For Baylor, that’s quite atypical. The Bears lead the country in making 40.8% of their attempts from behind the arc. They were just 3 of 19 in the 62-51 win over Villanova. That was their lowest scoring game of the year (by total points) and the second fewest points scored by them in any game. When they scored a season-low 58 at Kansas on 2/27, they came back the next game and scored 94. It’s a similar deal with Arkansas, who averages 81.7 PPG but is off a game where they were just 1 of 9 from three-point range. The 72-70 win over Oral Roberts marked the fourth time in five games the Razorbacks were held below their season average in points per game. So they are due for a breakout effort at the offensive end of the floor. This is a pretty low total by Arkansas’ standards and Baylor is 6-2 Over its L8 games. A team that leads the country in three-point shooting coming off a game where they shot 3 of 19 is a classic bounce back opportunity. Further improving the likelihood of Baylor scoring plenty of points tonight is the fact Arkansas was lucky to hold Oral Roberts to 8 of 31 shooting from 3-point range on Saturday. For the season, the Razorbacks have let their opponents hit 39.1% from behind the arc when away from Fayetteville. Also of note is the fact Arkansas plays at a MUCH faster tempo (17th) than either of Baylor’s previous two opponents (329 and 336). Baylor held Villanova to 3 of 17 shooting from 3-point range, a percentage the Razorbacks should easily eclipse. 8* Over Arkansas/Baylor |
|||||||
03-29-21 | Arkansas +8 v. Baylor | Top | 72-81 | Loss | -113 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
8* Arkansas (9:57 ET): The Razorbacks have certainly been “living dangerously” in this Tournament as they’ve won their last two games by two points each. They also trailed Colgate early in the first round. But this Elite Eight matchup with Baylor marks the first time in Tourney that the Hogs have been underdogs and I’m grabbing the points as this line has been bet up. Arkansas has a higher defensive efficiency rating compared to Baylor and I believe is due to “break out” offensively tonight. Arkansas averages 81.7 PPG, but they’ve gone Under in five straight while being held below that season average four times. The only time in the Tournament they exceeded their season average in points per game was against Colgate. But it will be a shock to Baylor’s system to face a team that likes to play at such a fast tempo. Per KenPom, the Razorbacks play at the 17th fastest pace in the country. Baylor’s last two opponents - Wisconsin and Villanova - were 329th and 336rd in adjusted tempo, which is as slow as it gets. Arkansas made just one three-pointer in its 72-70 win over Oral Roberts. They average seven makes from behind the arc per game, for the season. That’s not a ton, but it’s more than one. They only attempted nine three-pointers vs. Oral Roberts, a really low number. Baylor kept Villanova to 3 of 19 in three-point shooting Saturday, a very low number. So at the same time Arkansas’ 3-point shooting is set to improve, Baylor’s three-point defense is set to regress. Expect this to be a close game. 8* Arkansas |
|||||||
03-29-21 | Kings v. Spurs UNDER 228 | Top | 132-115 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 37 m | Show |
10* Under Kings/Spurs (8:35 ET): I chose the Spurs on Saturday and they rolled to a 120-104 win against the new-look Bulls. That snapped a four-game losing skid for Greg Popovich’s team, who is now 7th in the Western Conference with a 23-20 SU record. Tonight they host a Sacramento team that is on a surprising four-game win streak (matches a season-high). It should be pointed out here that the last time the Kings won four in a row, they proceeded to lose their next nine games (also went 0-9 ATS). This particular four-game win streak has seen the Kings beat lowly Cleveland twice and also wounded Golden State. So let’s not go making playoff reservations just yet, although the Kings are now just one game back of the last play-in spot in the Western Conference. Surprisingly, it has been an improvement on the defensive end that has spurred on Sacramento recently. They’ve allowed 108 points or less in three of the last four games. While two of those were against Cleveland, the other time was vs. Atlanta. But I like this game to go Under primarily because I don’t see the Kings matching their red-hot shooting from the last two games. They connected at a ridiculous 59.6% clip against Golden State last Thursday, then were over 50% against vs. Cleveland on Saturday. San Antonio, save for one bad game vs. the Clippers, has been pretty solid defensively as of late. They’ve held six of the last eight opponents to 110 points or less and the Under is 10-1 the L11 times they’ve hosted a team with a losing road record. Sacramento, who is on a 7-0 Under run when playing with exactly one day of rest, is 9-13 SU on the road. 10* Under Kings/Spurs |
|||||||
03-29-21 | Raptors -4.5 v. Pistons | Top | 104-118 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 7 m | Show |
8* Toronto (8:05 ET): It’s been a miserable March for the Raptors, who are now 1-11 SU this month. Last night saw them waste a 41-point first quarter as they lost 122-117 at home to Portland. But it is worth mentioning that I was with Toronto in their lone win this month, which occurred last Wednesday when they vanquished a good Denver team by a score of 135-111. Last night was the fifth time this month that the Raptors lost a game by five points or less. Their point differential & net efficiency rating for the year both suggest they should be much better than 10 games below .500. So I’ll back them again here. Detroit is still in last place in the Eastern Conference, a spot they’ve occupied for most of this season. They’ve lost four in a row and while they played both Indiana and Brooklyn tough, they also lost by 14 to Chicago and Washington. Scoring only 92 points against the Wizards should be considered a huge embarrassment. As was the fact the Pistons trailed by as many as 30 points in that game. They only made things a little closer once Bradley Beal, the NBA’s leading scorer, exited the game with an injury. This is the third time this month that these teams have played. As you can ascertain from the info given above, the Raptors lost both times. I know times are tough, but how can someone look at themselves in the mirror after losing to the likes of the Pistons three times in one month? Detroit is just 1-8 SU otherwise in March. Toronto was favored by 7.5 and 6.5 in those two games, so we’re getting a bit of value here. Detroit shot abnormally well (above 51% overall and 32 of 70 from 3-pt range), which I don’t see happening again tonight. The Pistons are just 2-8 SU L10 games despite allowing only 107.5 PPG. 8* Toronto |
|||||||
03-29-21 | Oregon State v. Houston -7.5 | Top | 61-67 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
10* Houston (7:15 ET): This “madness” (pun intended!) with Oregon State MUST come to an end. The Beavers, picked to finish LAST in their conference (Pac 12) this season, are somehow one of the final eight teams left in the NCAA Tournament. Had it not been for winning the Pac 12 Tournament, OSU wouldn’t have even qualified for the Big Dance and they are now just the second-ever 12 seed to make the Elite 8. They’ve been a covering machine as well: 6-0 ATS L6, 13-1 ATS L14 and 19-2-1 ATS L22. But I feel it all comes to an end here against a vastly superior Houston side. The Cougars are on the verge of their first Final Four since the Phi Slamma Jamma days of the early 80s. Incredibly, they won’t have to defeat a team seeded higher than 10th to get there. Having benefited from some upsets, Kelvin Sampson’s team has beaten Cleveland State, Rutgers and Syracuse to get here. I had them in the Sweet 16 as they locked in defensively and beat the Orange 62-46. They allowed a shooting percentage of just 28.0% for the game, including 21.7 from three-point range. Fourth in the country in defensive efficiency, those are the kind of defensive numbers I’m looking for here from the Cougars. Oregon State has been incredibly fortunate from three-point range during their six-game win streak, going 50 of 120 (41.7%) themselves while the opponents have shot just 30 for 142 (21.1%). Houston is #2 in the country in points allowed (57.5 PPG) and teams have shot just 28.0% from 3-point range against them for the season. As I said in the writeup vs. Syracuse (another team that was on a 6-0 ATS run), Houston is a team that’s been winning big. Seven of their last 10 victories have been by 16 or more points. 10* Houston |
|||||||
03-28-21 | Oregon v. USC -1.5 | Top | 68-82 | Win | 100 | 79 h 12 m | Show |
8* USC (9:45 ET): So we’ve got a matchup of conference rivals in the Sweet 16 as USC takes on Oregon. It’s been a great Tournament thus far for the Pac 12 as they placed four teams in the Sweet 16. USC is the only one favored to make it to the Elite 8, however. As you may have guessed, these teams did meet in the regular season (just once). The Trojans prevailed 72-58 and really it wasn’t even that close as they led 43-22 at the half. I think USC is the much better team here and will gladly lay the short number in the rematch. Oregon caught quite the break as they didn’t even have to play a 1st round game. Their scheduled opponent, VCU, was forced to withdraw due to COVID-19. The Ducks took full advantage of that “bye” by then going out and blitzing 2-seed Iowa 95-80 in an upset as 5-point underdogs. For the fourth time in the last five games, the Ducks shot better than 55% from the field (55.9%), which is remarkable. But I don’t think they’ll have that kind of “touch” here against a USC team that has held its first two Tournament opponents below 30% from the field. It has been two dominant efforts on the defensive end from the Trojans. They held Drake to 56 points and then Kansas to 51. For the year, their opposing FG% is 38.7, which is just fantastic. The Trojans also tend to dominate on the glass, something Oregon knows all too well as it was outrebounded 39-25 in the first meeting. Annihilating Kansas by 34 should garner more respect in the marketplace than it has as USC is very much a team that “deserves” to be in the Elite 8 as I consider them to be a top 10 team in the country. They were underseeded. 8* USC |
|||||||
03-28-21 | Oregon v. USC UNDER 138 | Top | 68-82 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 12 m | Show |
8* Under Oregon/USC (9:45 ET): The last time an Oregon game went Under was February 22nd. The opponent was USC. The Ducks again run into their Pac 12 rival here in the Sweet 16 after going Over in eight consecutive contests. They caught a huge break last weekend as their 1st round opponent (VCU) had to withdraw due to COVID-19 protocols. Taking full advantage of the “bye,” the Ducks blitzed Iowa 95-80 in a dominant second round victory. But as we’ve seen before, scoring on USC won’t be as easy. The Trojans put the clamps down defensively on both Drake and Kansas last weekend. They held them both to ridiculously low shooting percentages (29.4 and 29.0 respectively) and allowed only 107 points total. Dominating efforts at the defensive end are something we’ve seen throughout the year from Andy Enfield’s team. USC opponents have shot just 38.7% for the season and Oregon was held 40.4% overall despite going 7 of 17 from three-point range. The Ducks scored only 22 first half points in that game. Now Oregon has lost only once since that time and they’ve shot better than 55% from the field in four of their last five games, which is somewhat preposterous. Given USC’s defensive resume, I’m expecting the Ducks to “cool off” considerably on Sunday night. Nor do I expect USC to match its ridiculously hot shooting from the last game as they made an incredible 57.1% against Kansas. These teams know each other well and that familiarity should lead to a relatively low-scoring contest. Oregon’s Over streak is “due” to end and USC is 8-3 Under following a win by 20+ points. 8* Under Oregon/USC |
|||||||
03-28-21 | Hawks v. Nuggets OVER 226.5 | Top | 102-126 | Win | 100 | 14 h 32 m | Show |
10* Over Hawks/Nuggets (9:05 ET): Two teams looking to move up the standings in their respective conferences meet Sunday in what should be a good one. Atlanta is 9-2 SU/8-3 ATS since making a coaching change at the beginning of the month and for my money is the fourth best team in the East. Denver has won 10 of its last 13 games (8-5 ATS) to move closer to the injury-riddled Lakers for fourth place in the West. Both sides are coming off wins in their last time out. Atlanta was a 124-108 winner at Golden State. That was - by far - their highest scoring effort so far on this current road trip, which is now half over. When all is said and done, it will be an eight-game trip. The first four games were all played in California and saw the Hawks go 2-2 SU. They probably feel that record should be better as they blew a huge lead and lost to the Clippers, then fell by two at Sacramento. I do not see them matching their 54.8% shooting we saw vs. Golden State, but the number of PPG allowed in the L5 games (104.8) is likely to start going up as well. When these teams met in Atlanta last month, it was a 123-115 Hawks win where the Over cashed pretty easily. The total is several points LOWER for the rematch, which seems odd. Denver has scored at least 110 points in six of its last seven games and is averaging 116.2 at home for the year. The Over is 27-18 in all Nuggets’ games this season. They attempted only seven free throws in the win over New Orleans on Friday and still scored 113 points. 10* Over Hawks/Nuggets |
|||||||
03-28-21 | Creighton v. Gonzaga OVER 157.5 | Top | 65-83 | Loss | -114 | 72 h 32 m | Show |
10* Over Creighton/Gonzaga (2:15 ET): Through their first two games of the Tournament, I’ve seen nothing to dissuade me from thinking (like everybody else) that Gonzaga is the “team to beat.” They annihilated Norfolk State in Round 1, 98-55 as a 33-point favorite, then beat Oklahoma 87-71 and covered the 14-point spread there. That win over Oklahoma extends the Zags’ perfect SU record on the season to 28-0 and the last 25 victories have all been by double digits. They are #1 in the country in scoring at 92.1 PPG and what’s scary is that they still scored 87 on OU despite shooting below 50% (49.1) for the first time in nearly two months. Creighton had a close call in Round 1 (beat UCSB 63-62) before easily ousting Ohio in Round 2 (72-58). I saw Clark Kellogg on CBS say that the Bluejays were “due” to break out of their scoring slump and I concurred, a big reason why I took them against Ohio. Ironically, it was their defense that led the way in that win as the Bobcats shot just 31.8% overall and couldn’t make any outside shots. While Creighton is allowing just 60 PPG in the Tourney thus far, that’s not really indicative of “who they are” and I do expect them to struggle defensively in this matchup. Assuming Gonzaga can come close to its season average of 92.1 PPG, we would only need around 70 points from Creighton to send this one Over the total. Considering the Bluejays come in averaging 76.3 PPG on the year, I think they can do it. Kellogg was right; this is a team that typically shoots better than what we’ve seen so far in the Tourney. Look for this to turn into a really high-scoring game as Gonzaga is 39-16 Over its L55 games. 10* Over Creighton/Gonzaga |
|||||||
03-28-21 | Creighton +13.5 v. Gonzaga | Top | 65-83 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 42 m | Show |
8* Creighton (2:10 ET): I’m gonna “take the bait” (i.e. the points) here against #1 Gonzaga. Full disclosure - this did NOT work well when I took Norfolk State in the first round of the Tournament. But at least now we’ve got a team that has a chance to win. Not that I think Creighton will win, but I see the Bluejays keeping this one within single digits. I used them in the last round when they blew past Ohio 72-58 and really it shouldn’t have even been that close. Creighton is 3-1 ATS as an underdog this season, by the way. The most points they were getting in any game was +5.5 at Villanova. Through their first two games of the Tournament, I’ve seen nothing to dissuade me from thinking (like everybody else) that Gonzaga is the “team to beat.” They annihilated Norfolk State in Round 1, 98-55 as a 33-point favorite, then beat Oklahoma 87-71 and covered the 14-point spread there. That win over Oklahoma extends the Zags’ perfect SU record on the season to 28-0 and the last 25 victories have all been by double digits. But, according to my current power ratings, Creighton will be the best team that the Zags have faced all season besides Iowa, whom they defeated by “only” 11 points. My power ratings say this spread should be several points lower. The key is that Creighton can score. The Bluejays average 76.3 PPG. They really haven’t shot the ball well - so far - in the Tournament. But that can change. They have lost only two games by double digits all season. Six of the eight losses were by eight points or less, half of those by five or less. Creighton is 12-4 ATS when coming off a game where they allowed 60 points or less. Look for this to be “closer than the experts think” on Sunday. 8* Creighton |
|||||||
03-27-21 | Syracuse v. Houston -6 | Top | 46-62 | Win | 100 | 55 h 23 m | Show |
8* Houston (9:55 ET): One quarter of this year’s Sweet 16 are double digit seeds and two of those four teams reside in the Midwest Region. Both are from P5 conferences, so these aren’t “Cinderellas” in the true sense of the term. That said, I certainly did not expect to see Syracuse still standing at this juncture of the Tournament. The Orange have upset 6-seed San Diego State and 3-seed West Virginia to get here and are on a 6-0 ATS run, the lone SU loss in that stretch coming by three points to Virginia in the ACC Tournament. Houston was my pick to come out of this region, so I’m not at all surprised to see them still playing. With the top seed in the Midwest (Illinois) out, I think you’ve got to make the Cougars the favorites to move on to the Final Four. They certainly made it look easy in the first round when they absolutely buried Cleveland State 87-56 (were 20.5-pt favorites), but it was a lot tougher against Rutgers in the second round. They ended up winning 63-60 (were -7), but had to rally to do so. The Cougars have lost only three games this season and the last one was over a month ago at Wichita State. They come into the Sweet 16 on a nine-game win streak and the good news is they often follow a close win with a blowout. Of the nine consecutive victories, three have been by exactly three points each. But the other six wins were all by 24 points or more! Houston is 8-0 ATS this season off an ATS loss, winning those games by an average of nearly 30 PPG! This is a really good team. Most don’t know it yet, but they will after Saturday as Syracuse’s 76.1 PPG allowed when away from home remains a concern. The Orange have shot above 53% overall in the Tournament thus far, but I don’t see that happening here against a team that gives up only 57.9 PPG (#2 in the country). 8* Houston |
|||||||
03-27-21 | Modestas Bukauskas v. Michal Oleksiejczuk UNDER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Push | 0 | 59 h 29 m | Show |
8* Under Bukauskas/Oleksiejczuk (8:10 ET): This fight is scheduled for three rounds in the UFC’s Light Heavyweight Division (205 lbs) and will take place on the prelims, which you can watch for free on ESPN. Modestas Bukauskas comes in with an 11-3 career mark, including 1-1 in the UFC. He lost his last time out, suffering a first round KO at the hands of Jimmy Crute. Michal Oleksiejczuk is 14-4 overall and 2-2 in the UFC. He too suffered a first round defeat at the hands of Crute in his last fight! I’m looking for another “quick one” from these two fighters and will take the Under 2.5 rounds. Despite being on a two-fight losing skid, Oleksiejczuk is the favorite here. Not only did he lose to Crute 13 months ago, but he was beaten by Ovince St. Preux back in September 2019. That fight saw him stopped 2:14 into Round 2 via a shoulder choke. You’d have to go back almost two years to find the last time Oleksiejczuk had his hand raised in the Octagon. That was a 44 second knockout. Six of his last eight fights have ended in the first round, including three of the four in the UFC. Only three of his 18 career fights have gone to the scorecards. Bakauskas lost to Crute in October, so his layoff has not been as lengthy. That loss snapped a seven-fight win streak and five of those wins came in the first round. In fact, 9 of Bakauskas’ last 11 fights have not made it to the second round. Given the respective resumes here, I don’t see how you can expect this fight to go very long, let alone make it to the halfway point of the third round. 8* Under Bukauskas/Oleksiejczuk |
|||||||
03-27-21 | Bulls v. Spurs -3 | Top | 104-120 | Win | 100 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
10* San Antonio (8:35 ET): In the wake of a big trade that yielded Nikola Vucevic, most are going to want to take the Bulls in this spot. But I’m not necessarily “buying the hype” … yet. While it’s true Chicago does now have two All-Star caliber players (Vucevic, Zach LaVine), it’s going to take time for all the new pieces to gel (they made some other moves as well). They haven’t beaten a team with a winning record since early in January and just lost to lowly Cleveland in their last game. They’ve lost four of five overall, only breaking 100 points once during that stretch. San Antonio has lost four in a row, the last three of which were here at home. This is a season-long nine-game homestand, so they need to start taking advantage if they want to hold onto their current spot. I will point out that three of the Spurs’ four losses have come against either the Bucks or Clippers. The second game vs. the Clips saw them struggle offensively down the stretch. That was too bad as they held LA to 38.2% shooting for the game. San Antonio is still 8th in the West, two games above .500. That’s better than Chicago, who is five games below .500 and in 10th in the weaker East. Acquiring Vucevic has brought increased optimism in the Windy City, but I remain unsold. The Bulls are a horrendous 2-15 SU/5-12 ATS vs. teams that have winning records. Last time they faced one, they lost by 25. Granted that was the Jazz, but it was also at home as was the loss to Cleveland. Can’t see the Spurs losing four in a row at home and the line looks short to me. 10* San Antonio |
|||||||
03-27-21 | Oral Roberts v. Arkansas -11 | Top | 70-72 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 48 m | Show |
10* Arkansas (7:25 ET): For just the second time in the NCAA Tournament’s history, a 15-seed has made it to the Sweet 16. The other was Florida Gulf Coast in 2013, a run which ended in this round with a double digit loss to Florida. Oral Roberts looks to avoid that same fate on Saturday as they take on 3-seed Arkansas. The Eagles have upset both Ohio State and Florida (ironic!) to get here, which you have to give them credit for doing. But while on a 7-game SU win streak (6-0 ATS L6), five of those wins have come by four points or less and the last four have been by a total of 11 pts (one went to OT). This is a regular season rematch as the teams met all the way back on December 20th in Fayetteville. Arkansas won 87-76, but did not cover as 19.5-point favorites. Obviously, this game is not taking place on the Razorbacks’ campus. However, looking at the line for the regular season matchup and comparing it to this one, you can see some value. Personally, I do not believe the loss of “home court advantage” is worth some eight points to the spread. Since the start of February, Arkansas is 11-1 SU and 10-2 ATS. They covered both NCAA Tournament games, beating Colgate 85-68 and Texas Tech 68-66. Look for Oral Roberts’ “Cinderella” run to end Saturday. I’ve been high on this Arkansas team for much of the season and now they are playing up to their potential. They are top 10 in the country in defensive efficiency whereas Oral Roberts is 238th. The Hogs already come in averaging 82.0 PPG (#7 in the country), so they should score a ton here. ORU allowed Florida to shoot 55.2% in the last round and somehow won despite being down 11 in the second half. Ohio State was very much overrated. This team finished 4th in the Summit League! They are not in the Razorbacks’ class. 10* Arkansas |
|||||||
03-26-21 | Blazers v. Magic UNDER 220 | Top | 112-105 | Win | 100 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
10* Under Blazers/Magic (8:05 ET): Portland was a 125-122 winner last night in Miami, snapping a two-game losing skid. They are now tied for 5th in the Western Conference, though they’ve been outscored on the year, which gives them a significantly worse point differential than the top five. Really, it’s quite head-scratching how this team is currently eight games above .500. They aren’t very sound defensively, two of their top three players missed significant time and they’ve suffered the most 20+ point losses in the league. But here we are. Orlando is near the bottom of the Eastern Conference and considering their activity at yesterday’s trade deadline, they won’t be moving up anytime soon. They traded three of their top players away and that’s why they are such big underdogs tonight. We likely won’t be seeing any repeat of the Magic’s last performance, a 112-111 win here at home over Phoenix as 9.5-point dogs. Without Nikola Vucevic, Aaron Gordon and Evan Fournier, this team will struggle to score. Those are three double digit scorers and they accounted for more than 50% of the team’s points against the Suns. Portland could get Jusuf Nurkic back tonight. CJ McCollum has already returned. They traded for Norman Powell at the deadline. But what we won’t see tonight is a repeat of last night’s three-point shooting display where the Blazers made 20 attempts from behind the arc. That’s the big key here. When these teams met last month in Portland, the final score was 106-97 and that was with the Blazers making 18 3PA. Orlando had failed to reach 100 in five of its previous six games before beating the Suns. They are 29th overall in scoring. 10* Under Blazers/Magic |
|||||||
03-26-21 | Nuggets v. Pelicans +2 | Top | 113-108 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
8* New Orleans (8:05 ET): The Pelicans are a team that “should have” a better record. Point differential wise, they are “in the black” (meaning they’ve outscored their opponents this season), yet they currently are five games BELOW .500. Compare that to a team like Portland, who is eight games over .500 despite a negative YTD point differential. But lately, New Orleans has taken matters into its own hands by picking up B2B wins. They beat Denver 113-108 and the LeBron-less Lakers 128-111. Now it’s a rematch with Denver at home. The Nuggets are pretty clearly the West’s 5th best team this season, although they certainly didn’t look like it on Wednesday when I (wisely) decided to fade them against the Raptors. As short road favorites, the Nuggets lost 135-111 to a Toronto team that was on a nine-game losing skid. It was Denver’s worst loss of the season. The game was never really close and quite frankly I was shocked at what an easy winner that ended up being. While there’s no doubt that Denver is going to be looking to bounce back, New Orleans just beat them and is a better team than its record shows. Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson are both really good. The Pelicans’ starting forwards both went for 30+ last week vs. Denver, then Ingram scored a career high 36 vs. the Lakers. Williamson has 21 straight games with 20+ points. The team averages 118.1 PPG at home. Denver is only 1-7 ATS (2-6 SU) this season when the total is 230 points or higher, so this is the kind of game they typically lose. 8* New Orleans |
|||||||
03-25-21 | Louisiana Tech v. Western Kentucky +1 | Top | 72-65 | Loss | -108 | 14 h 29 m | Show |
10* Western Kentucky (10:00 ET): These Conference USA rivals met twice in the regular season, both times in Bowling Green (that’s WKU) and they split the pair. WKU won the first one, 66-64, but then was a 63-58 loser the following day. LA Tech covered both spreads as they were eight-point underdogs in the first meeting and then obviously an outright winner the second time around. But using those first two lines as “barometers,” it would certainly appear as if we’re getting some decent value on WKU for the “rubber match” as they are now a pick ‘em here in Frisco, TX for the NIT Quarterfinals. These were the two division winners in C-USA in the regular season. Both were ousted by eventual winner North Texas in the C-USA Tourney. LA Tech went down first (in the semis) then WKU lost in the final. That tourney final went to OT and was the Hilltoppers’ fourth game in as many days, so I thought it was pretty impressive that they were able to bounce back and defeat a good St. Mary’s team 69-67 in the opening round of the NIT. Though it ended up as a two-point game, WKU took the lead for good with eight minutes to go in the first half. Louisiana Tech upset Ole Miss in its first NIT game. They had a full week off between the C-USA Tournament and NIT while WKU had just three days in between their loss to North Texas and the win over St. Mary’s. Now it’s WKU that comes in with more rest for this game as they last played eight days ago while La Tech last played Saturday. The Hilltoppers did not shoot the ball well in either regular season matchup (35% overall), but I look for that to change here as they earn an 11th win away from home this season. 10* Western Kentucky |
|||||||
03-25-21 | Wizards v. Knicks -3 | Top | 102-106 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
10* New York (7:35 ET): These teams just met Tuesday with the Knicks winning 131-113 as 2.5-point underdogs. I had NY Tuesday and see no reason to “deviate from the script” for tonight’s rematch. The Knicks are a major surprise this year in that they are currently 6th in the Eastern Conference. HC Tom Thibodeau has just done a tremendous job here as the team is #1 in the league in points per game allowed (105.0). The fact that they scored 131 the other night is not surprising as Washington happens to be dead LAST in the league in PPG allowed, giving up an average of 120.2. The Wizards have dropped seven of their last eight games and there’s been only one time during that stretch they didn’t give up more than their season average in points allowed (and that one time wasn’t the lone win either). It is an absolute embarrassment that a team with Bradley Beal and Russell Westbrook may not even make the playoffs in the weak Eastern Conference. Not helping their cause tonight is the fact their scoring dips by more than eight points per game on the road compared to when they’re at home. Six Knicks finished in double figures Tuesday night, led by Julius Randle’s 37 points. The team shot a blistering 16 of 30 from three-point range and led by 20 at halftime. Normally, I might say the Knicks are likely to “cool off,” but facing the Wizards it should be yet another big night at the offensive end of the floor. This is just a really good matchup for NY, who is 2-0 SU/ATS this season following a game where they scored 130+. The Wiz are just 5-19 SU vs. conference opponents this season. 10* New York |
|||||||
03-24-21 | Hornets v. Rockets UNDER 224.5 | Top | 122-97 | Win | 100 | 13 h 14 m | Show |
10* Under Hornets/Rockets (8:05 ET): These are two teams that have both fallen on “hard times” recently. Charlotte just lost presumed Rookie of the Year LaMelo Ball (likely for the remainder of the season), which is a massive blow to a team that had been overachieving. Houston had just lost 20 in a row before beating Toronto 117-99 on Monday. Victor Oladipo is likely to be moved in the coming days as the Rockets have no chance of making the playoffs and are heading for a rebuild, post-James Harden. I expect this to be a relatively low-scoring game on Wednesday, even lower-scoring than the 119-94 game they played last month. Charlotte won that game, as a 1.5-point home dog, back on February 8th. After a high-scoring first half (64-60), things slowed down rather dramatically in the second. Houston did not shoot well (40.7%) overall while the Hornets did, particularly from three-point range (19 of 41). Ball made a career-high seven threes in that game (finished with 24-7-10), but he’s obviously not going to do that again tonight. Yes, the Hornets did win their first game without Ball, beating San Antonio Monday night. But they did so in 100-97 fashion. Charlotte is 6-1 Under its L7 games and has failed to top 105 points in any of the last four. Keep in mind all but one of those games were WITH Ball in the lineup. Both teams won on Monday because of their respective efforts at the defensive end (held opponents under 100 pts) and they know that’s the path to victory moving forward. Houston is only averaging 104.6 PPG at home where the Under is now 15-5 for the season. The Under is also 5-1 this season for the Rockets when they are coming off a DD win. I just don’t think either of these teams are very good offensively right now. 10* Under Hornets/Rockets |
|||||||
03-24-21 | Nuggets v. Raptors +1.5 | Top | 111-135 | Win | 100 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
8* Toronto (7:35 ET): This is the second night of a back to back for Denver as they face a Toronto team that’s in complete disarray right now. The Raptors are responsible for ending the Rockets 20-game losing streak as they went down in Houston 117-99 on Monday. They are now on their own nine-game losing skid and rumors are swirling about the team being a “seller” at the (trade) deadline with Kyle Lowry and Norman Powell being the possible departures. But amidst all this chaos, the Raptors are only a slight home dog to the Nuggets tonight and I think they’re going to “show up.” Take the points. Having been hit hard by COVID-19 and injuries, Toronto is now 17-26 SU on the year and in 11th place in the Eastern Conference. Keep in mind they were .500 and very much considered a playoff team before the current losing skid began. Tonight is very much a “buy low” spot in my eyes. OG Anunoby is set to return to the lineup tonight (sat out Monday) and you’ve gotta think this defense is going to improve. I fully understand that the Raptors have fallen out of favor with much of the public, but their statistical profile is of a team that should be close to .500, not nine games under. Denver was up big on Orlando last night, then nearly let all of a 20+ point lead slip away. They ended up winning 110-99 and covering as 7.5-point road favorites. The Nuggets are solidly in the top five in the Western Conference right now and looking to take advantage of the fact the Lakers’ two stars are both out with injuries. They’ve only lost twice this month, at home to Dallas and New Orleans, but everything about this line “stinks” and I believe it’s a trap game for a team playing w/o rest. Denver is just 1-4 ATS following its last five SU victories. 8* Toronto |
|||||||
03-23-21 | Wizards v. Knicks -2.5 | Top | 113-131 | Win | 100 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
10* New York (7:35 ET): The NBA’s Eastern Conference is very BAD this year. Or at least you can say that it’s “lacking depth.” There are only three teams (Philly, Brooklyn, Milwaukee) that are currently more than one game above .500. The massive drop-off after that trio sees seven teams separated by just 2.5 games. Surprisingly, one of them is the Knicks. At the start of the season, no one saw this team as a likely playoff contender. But here they are in 7th place and allowing the lowest number of points per game in the entire league. Tom Thibodeau clearly deserves some sort of award. As depth-shy as the East is this season, Washington still finds itself way off the pace for even a play-in spot. They are 15-26 SU and at the opposite end of the spectrum (from the Knicks) when it comes to points allowed as they give up a league-high 120.0 per game. They surprisingly held the Nets to just 113 the other night, in a game effort, but the end result was still a loss, their sixth in the past seven games. Sunday was the first time during that 1-6 SU stretch that they didn’t allow more than 120 points. The Knicks aren’t a high-scoring team, but I expect them to post a big number tonight. They might be just 1-3 SU L4 games, but all three losses came by five points or less, two of them by a total of four points. Also, those losses were to Brooklyn and Philadelphia. Sunday’s loss to the Sixers was an OT game. It’s very sad that Washington isn’t a real playoff contender in the East, considering they have both Bradley Beal and Russell Westbrook. New York is simply the better team here and playing with more effort, especially on the defensive end. They beat the Wiz 109-91 as three-point road favorites last month. 10* New York |
|||||||
03-22-21 | Hawks v. Clippers -6 | Top | 110-119 | Win | 100 | 14 h 19 m | Show |
10* LA Clippers (10:05 ET): For a while now, I’d thought Atlanta was much better than its record showed and sure enough they’ve really picked up the pace by going a perfect 8-0 in March, including 6-0 since the All-Star Break. This is a team that has had a positive scoring differential and net efficiency rating for basically the entirety of the season, so I’m not surprised to see them up in 4th place in the Eastern Conference right now. However, this shapes up to be their toughest matchup in quite some time and I see the win streak coming to an end tonight. The Clippers have been maddeningly inconsistent all year. You’d have to go back more than a month to find the last time they strung together B2B wins. However, they are still 4th in the West, the stronger of the two conferences, and coming off a commanding 27-point victory over Charlotte that took place here at home Saturday night. In four of the last five games, the Clips have held their opponent to 105 points or less. This despite being w/o both Patrick Beverley and Serge Ibaka. Give credit to Atlanta for its eight-game win streak, but they’ve been beating some weak teams such as Orlando, Sacramento, Cleveland, Houston and Oklahoma City. They also just faced the Lakers, the game where LeBron got hurt. Not having to deal with James or Anthony Davis, the Hawks rallied to win that game by five points. That helped the Clippers out and now they can help themselves as there’s definitely room to move up with the Lakers being so vulnerable right now. They still have Paul George and Kawhi Leonard, so I’m not concerned about the injuries to Beverley and Ibaka. 10* LA Clippers |
|||||||
03-22-21 | Colorado v. Florida State UNDER 141 | Top | 53-71 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
8* Under Colorado/Florida State (7:45 ET): So we’ve got two teams coming off very efficient wins where they were red-hot from the field. Colorado and Florida State very much won in “different ways,” but I don’t think there’s any denying that neither will be able to match the respective shooting we saw in those first round victories. Colorado made 16 three-pointers as they absolutely annihilated Georgetown 96-73. Florida State didn’t make a single three (0 for 9) in its 64-54 win over UNC Greensboro, but was 64% from inside the arc. Colorado was up 24 at halftime vs. Georgetown and saw that lead balloon to 32 in the second half. They shot 60.7% overall from the field, including a ridiculous 16 of 25 from 3-point range. No way they are matching those kinds of numbers here as FSU opponents are shooting less than 40% from the field for the season. The Buffaloes are 6-2 Under this season following a game where they scored 80+ and they are also 21-8 Under the L29 games with just one day of rest. They are 17-5 Under L22 as underdogs. Florida State is still 16-7 Over in all games this season, even though the first round win stayed Under. But here they are up against a team that gives up just 63.6 PPG and ranks top 25 in the country in defensive efficiency. I’m sure the Seminoles will make a three (or several!) tonight, but they won’t be matching that shooting from 2-point range they had on Saturday. 8* Under Colorado/Florida State |
|||||||
03-22-21 | Colorado +1.5 v. Florida State | Top | 53-71 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
9* Colorado (7:45 ET): I feel that the wrong team is favored in this #4 vs. #5 (seed) matchup in the East Region. Colorado very much looked like a Final Four team as they completely dismantled Big East Tournament Champion Georgetown 96-73 in the first round. The Buffaloes came out red hot and took a 24-point lead into halftime. They wound up hitting 16 three-pointers for the game and led by as many as 32 at one point. Leading scorer McKinley Wright IV only had 12 points and that didn’t even matter. FSU had a bit of a tougher time with UNC Greensboro on Saturday. Though the Seminoles pretty much led wire to wire, they saw a double digit lead cut down to just one in the final five minutes. It wound up being a 10-point victory as the ‘Noles were very efficient from inside the arc, making 25 of 39 two-point attempts. They were 0 for 9 from three-point range, however, and that could be a major problem here as they face a team that just made 16 3PA in its first round game. FSU is just 1-4-1 ATS its L6 games, losing three of them outright despite being a favorite in all six. While I don’t think Colorado can possibly shoot as well from 3-point range here as they did vs. G’town, I also am predicting Florida State to have a downturn in its own shooting as well. I’ve been relatively high on this Buffs team all season and very much believe they have Final Four potential. Wright may have only had 12 points, but he had 13 assists and got help from freshman Jabari Walker, who had 24. Colorado is a perfect 8-0 SU this season (and 7-1 ATS) following a game where they scored more than 80 points. 9* Colorado |
|||||||
03-22-21 | Ohio v. Creighton -6 | Top | 58-72 | Win | 100 | 31 h 31 m | Show |
10* Creighton (6:10 ET): Creighton, a popular pick to get upset in the first round, was able to hold on for a 63-62 win over UCSB on Saturday. They obviously did not cover the spread (-7.5), but HC Greg McDermott will take it as his team got to move on. It’s been a bit of a “trying month” here with McDermott getting himself suspended for poor phrasing and the Bluejays getting clobbered in the Big East Final by Georgetown. But I still believe this is a Sweet 16 worthy club and they get a great break in playing 13-seed Ohio in the Round of 32. Ohio caught a massive break with its first round draw against Virginia. Due to COVID protocol, the Hoos weren’t able to practice together and didn’t even arrive in Indianapolis until Friday. This put them at a severe disadvantage and they played like it, shooting only 35% from the field, including 8 of 31 from three-point range. The Bobcats are hardly noted as a great defensive team as they rank 152nd nationally in efficiency, which is easily the worst among the 24 remaining teams in the Tournament (only one other is lower than #86 and that’s LSU). Creighton is an elite offensive team that should take advantage of Ohio’s defensive shortcomings. This matchup is similar to Villanova-North Texas, which I cashed in on yesterday. My power ratings suggest that the Bluejays are being significantly undervalued and this line should be double digits. Remember what I said about 13 seeds in Round 2 of the NCAA Tournament yday? They remain “0-fer” the L5 Tourneys in the 2nd round, losing by an average of more than 20 PPG. 10* Creighton |
|||||||
03-21-21 | North Texas v. Villanova -5 | Top | 61-84 | Win | 100 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
9* Villanova (8:45 ET): ‘Nova treated me well on Friday as they were my top Round 1 selection. A popular pick to be upset, the Wildcats instead won and covered, 73-63 as six-point chalk. With so much talk about the injury to PG Colin Gillespie, I think it’s fair to say the Wildcats are being underrated by the oddsmakers right now. I felt it should have been a double digit spread against Winthrop and think the same here as they face 13-seed North Texas. Lay the points here as Jay Wright’s team catches a very favorable second round matchup. Tip your cap to North Texas for pulling a 78-69 upset over Purdue in Round 1. The Mean Green were 7.5 point underdogs going into that game and are now 5-0 SU/ATS their L5 overall. But remember the Purdue game did go to overtime as UNT was unable to hold on to its early lead. I thought the Mean Green really caught a big break in that the Boilermakers started out very slow and shot poorly throughout. For the game, Purdue shot 36.2% overall and 30% from 3-pt range. Betting against teams seeded 13 or lower in Round 2 is typically the way to go as they struggle to maintain their “momentum” (hate that word) from the first round upsets. In particular, 13 seeds are “0-fer” in the previous four NCAA Tournaments, losing by an average of 18.8 PPG. Again I see some substantial value here on a Villanova team that just won by 10 despite not shooting the ball particularly well. North Texas’ last four victories have all come by fewer than seven points or in overtime. 9* Villanova |
|||||||
03-21-21 | Oral Roberts v. Florida -7 | Top | 81-78 | Loss | -114 | 32 h 13 m | Show |
10* Florida (7:45 ET): Although they shot a blistering 56.5% from the field, Florida needed OT to get by Va Tech 75-70 in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. The Gators actually trailed by as many as 10 in the first half and were down 44-36 with just 15 minutes to go in regulation. But despite playing short-handed, they found a way to win and that was mostly by dominating the Hokies on the glass (36-22 rebounding edge). Really, had it not been for turnovers and some poor FT shooting, the Gators should have taken the game in regulation. Meanwhile, 15-seed Oral Roberts became the big surprise of the 1st day of Tourney action by stunning Ohio State 75-72 as 15-point underdogs, another game that went to OT. The Eagles, who finished fourth in the Summit League and have the worst defensive efficiency of any team in the NCAA Tournament, pulled off one of the biggest upsets in history despite shooting only 35.7% from the floor. Not to throw “cold water” on the situation, but it’s a game I thought Ohio State really “threw away” in the closing moments of regulation. Turning it over only six times was huge for Oral Roberts. This matchup reminds me a lot of my top first round selection - Villanova over Winthrop. The line is just way too low. It’s because of injuries on the Florida side (remember ‘Nova was missing its starting PG and still won), but they’ve still got Tre Mann, who has averaged 21.6 points the L5 games and Colin Castleton (who went for 19-14 vs. Va Tech). Oral Roberts really got dominated on the glass by Ohio State (-17) and considering what Florida did to Va Tech, I expect that to happen again here. Only one 15-seed (Fla Gulf Coast) has ever made the Sweet 16 and I don’t like Oral Roberts’ chances of becoming the second. Six straight wins for them sounds nice, but four have been by four points or less. 10* Florida |
|||||||
03-21-21 | Wizards v. Nets OVER 245 | Top | 106-113 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
10* Over Wizards/Nets (7:05 ET): I don’t think you can find a matchup more likely to produce a ton of points than this one right here. Now obviously, that means the total is going to be high. But Brooklyn leads the league in scoring at 120.4 points per game. Washington gives up the most points at 120.2 PPG. So you have to figure the Nets will score a ton tonight. The Wizards should follow suit as they have hit at least 119 in each of their last four contests. Take the Over. The Nets are 14-2 SU their L16 games, but coming off a shocking 121-113 loss to Orlando, a game where they came in as 11-point favorites. While they finished below their season average in PPG, the main culprit for the defeat was the fact they let Orlando sink 21 three-pointers. It was also the second straight game a Brooklyn opponent shot 51.2% from the field. I won’t be surprised to see the defensive issues persist tonight, but there is a reason this team has been so successful and that’s the offensive end of the floor. I expect James Harden will have a bounce back game after struggling vs. the Magic (just 4 of 15 shooting). Washington has given up at least 120 points in six straight games. Brooklyn’s last three games have all gone Over. So did both previous meetings this year vs. the Wizards and surprisingly enough, both were Washington victories. The second was an insane 149-146 final and there was no overtime. The first was a 123-122 final. 10* Over Wizards/Nets |
|||||||
03-21-21 | Wisconsin +6.5 v. Baylor | Top | 63-76 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 19 m | Show |
8* Wisconsin (2:40 ET): The Badgers probably couldn’t have played any better than they did in their 85-62 thrashing of North Carolina on Friday. I was happy to see it. Remember that I said the “wrong team was favored” in that matchup and was on the Badgers. In turning in their fourth largest margin of victory this season, Wisconsin turned it over only seven times vs, UNC while shooting 51% overall and 57% in the second half. Maybe it was the fact the game was played in “familiar territory,” that being Mackey Arena, home of Big 10 rival Pudue. Or maybe it’s that the Badgers are simply far better than their seed indicates. Something else I brought up in my analysis of their first round matchup is the fact that their last four losses all came to ranked teams and were by five points or less. While I don’t think they’ll be able to duplicate the 13 of 27 shooting from three-point range we saw vs. UNC, remember that Wisconsin is a top 15 team in defensive efficiency. In the KenPom ratings, they are in the top 12 overall! Though they had an easy time in Round 1 vs. Hartford, winning 79-55, Baylor really hasn’t looked the same since its season was paused for three weeks in February. They are just 1-7 ATS the L8 games. Even against a 16-seed, they struggled to shoot the ball Friday, making only 41.3% of their FG attempts including 11 of 33 from behind the arc. It will get much harder to make shots today. I just think Wisconsin was really underrated coming into this Tournament. They are 11-3 ATS vs. Big 12 teams. 8* Wisconsin |
|||||||
03-20-21 | Kenan Song v. Max Griffin -200 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 48 h 11 m | Show |
6* Max Griffin (10:35 ET): This is a matchup of welterweights (170 lbs), scheduled for three rounds on the main card. Griffin is 16-8 in his MMA career, but just 4-6 in the UFC. Kenan Song holds a 16-5 career record, including 4-1 in the UFC. But it’s Griffin that comes in as a 2/1 favorite and I think that speaks volumes about the way this fight is likely to go. Griffin has had many exciting, close fights inside the Octagon and really his record could be a lot better. He’s lost two split decisions over his last five fights, one of them against Alex Oliveira. But he bounced back from that one in November by delivering a vicious 3rd round TKO of Ramiz Brahimaj. That was Griffin’s first fight that did NOT go to the scorecards since a TKO win over Eric Montano back in 2016. Griffin has only been stopped ONCE in a UFC fight and that was his debut vs. Colby Covington 4.5 years ago. In fact, that’s the ONLY time he’s ever been stopped in his career. While more successful, Song has not been as active as Griffin the last couple years nor has he faced the same stiff level of competition. A two-fight win streak actually dates back all the way to August of 2019. His last fight, a 1st round KO of Callan Potter, was over a year ago. I feel Song is a bit of a question mark on the mat and the way I see this one going is Griffin can score some takedowns and get the win from the judges. 6* Max Griffin |
|||||||
03-20-21 | Abilene Christian +9 v. Texas | Top | 53-52 | Win | 100 | 36 h 21 m | Show |
8* Abilene Christian (9:50 ET): There seem to be a lot of trendy underdogs in this Tournament, but I’m not seeing the name Abilene Christian mentioned among them. Maybe that’s because few people follow the Southland Conference. Or maybe it’s because they draw a tough 3-seed in Texas. But the Wildcats know how to defend as they are top 30 nationally in efficiency. They will be a tough out here. Among teams seeded 11th or lower, only Utah State has a higher defensive efficiency rating than Abilene Christian. No 14-seed has won outright in the L3 NCAA Tournaments. You’d have to go back almost 20 years to find the last time there was a four-year stretch w/o a 14-seed winning. Abilene Christian comes in hot as they’ve won 12 of their last 13 games and steamrolled regular season champ Nicholls 79-45 in the Southland Tournament Final. That defense I mentioned earlier was on full display as they held the Colonels to 29.7% shooting. It was the team’s third consecutive win by 20 or more points. While Texas (5-0 SU/ATS L5 games) has played very well of late for HC Shaka Smart, four of their last six wins have come by four points or fewer. The past three #3 seeds to lose in the first round were all Big 12 teams. Now I’m not saying the Longhorns lose straight up here, but after winning the Big 12 Tournament they feel a bit overvalued. They are just 1-6 ATS vs. teams averaging 77 or more points per game and Abilene Christian averages 77.6 PPG. Take the points with a dog more people should be talking about. 8* Abilene Christian |
|||||||
03-20-21 | Norfolk State +34 v. Gonzaga | Top | 55-98 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 31 m | Show |
8* Norfolk State (9:20 ET): Obviously, I’m not predicting an upset here. But this is a ton of points, the largest spread we’ve seen in the NCAA Tournament thus far and I’m grabbing the points. Norfolk State was a 54-53 winner in the “First Four” Thursday, holding off a comeback attempt by Appalachian State, whom they led by as many as 19 points. I think the close call works in our favor here. Had the Spartans won in blowout fashion, my feeling is this line wouldn’t be nearly as high. For the record, my own power ratings suggest this number should be +30. Gonzaga is seeking to become the first team since Indiana in 1976 to run the table and go undefeated for a full season. There is no doubt that the Zags were the best team in America during the regular season. I agree that they should be the favorite to cut down the nets in three weeks. But covering a spread this large can be problematic. There were several times this year where the Bulldogs got “backdoored.” In the seven games this season where they were favored by at least 30 points, they went just 2-5 ATS. Norfolk State has covered its last six lined contests. They’ve won seven in a row overall SU. Their leading scorer Devante Carter scored just four points against App State on 1 of 10 shooting. Expect him to play better here. Defensively, the Spartans allowed just 25.8% shooting in the “First Four” game. Obviously, they won’t get that lucky again, but there’s a lot of pressure on Gonzaga this season and I don’t see them winning this game by 30+ points. For the record, their average margin of victory this season is 23.0 PPG. 8* Norfolk State |
|||||||
03-20-21 | Newcastle United v. Brighton & Hove Albion -139 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 41 h 32 m | Show |
10* Brighton & Hove Albion (4:00 ET): BH&A and Newcastle United, sitting 16th and 17th respectively in the Premier League table, are both fighting off relegation. That makes the three points critical on Saturday and I’m taking the home side, who I think has been better for the majority of this season. The Seagulls were finally able to break through with a Premier League victory last week, beating Southampton 2-1. That snapped a three-game losing streak and now they look to secure B2B EPL wins for the first time since early February. Newcastle United has drawn three straight times here in the English top flight, most recently 1-1 against Aston Villa on March 12th. Newcastle was very fortunate to get to share the points in that one as they got the equalizer in the 94th minute of action. That came just eight minutes after an own goal looked to sink them. Over their last five matches, Newcastle has scored only three goals and one would have to go all the way back to Feb 6th to find the last time this side tasted victory. It just so happens that was against Southampton as well. What sticks out to me in this matchup are the team’s respective YTD goal differentials. Brighton & Hove Albion is at -7, which is not great, but it’s also better than four teams ahead of them in the table. Meanwhile, Newcastle’s -17 GD is much more indicative of a side you’d expect might get relegated. In fact, it’s worse than 18th place Fulham, who could pass the Magpies if they were to win Friday. Brighton took the reverse fixture 3-0 back in September and are unbeaten against Newcastle dating back to February 2017. 10* Brighton & Hove Albion |
|||||||
03-20-21 | UC-Santa Barbara v. Creighton -7 | Top | 62-63 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 40 m | Show |
8* Creighton (3:30 ET): It seems as if the public has turned on Creighton, whether it be due to HC Greg McDermott’s poor choice of words or the team’s hideous showing against Georgetown in the Big East Tournament. Whatever the reason, I’m seeing a great “buy low” opportunity on the Bluejays here in the 1st round vs. UCSB, who did not play a single team from a major conference during the regular season. I expect the underdog Gauchos to really struggle to defend an elite offensive team like Creighton. Lay the points. UCSB is 18-1 SU its last 19 games, but the lack of quality competition certainly helps explain that record. They rolled in the Big West Tournament, but it is worth mentioning that in their four losses this season, the Gauchos let the opponents shoot 44% from downtown. Creighton is a very good three-point shooting team as they make 36.7% of their attempts from behind the arc. I really don’t know how to explain what happened vs. G’town, other than to say it was “one of those days.” I certainly don’t see that happening again. There have been only two times this season when the Bluejays lost B2B games. It was basically dreadful shooting in the first half that sunk Creighton in its last game. Look for them to come out hot here. UCSB has not made the Tournament since 2011. My power rankings say this spread should be double digits and that doesn’t even take into account the fact that UCSB’s third leading scorer (Ajare Sanni) has been downgraded to doubtful for this contest. 8* Creighton |
|||||||
03-20-21 | St Bonaventure +2 v. LSU | Top | 61-76 | Loss | -109 | 46 h 30 m | Show |
10* St. Bonaventure (1:45 ET): LSU is precisely the kind of team I look to play against in the 1st round of the NCAA Tournament. While the Tigers may be an elite team offensively, their defensive efficiency rating (125th in the country!) really sticks out like a “sore thumb” (in my eyes) and holds them back. They also aren’t a very good rebounding team. The fact that the Bayou Bengals just made it all the way to the SEC Tournament Final cast an even greater public spotlight and this is a great matchup to fade them, IMO. St. Bonaventure, rather quietly, won the regular season and tournament championship in the A-10. The Bonnies are 16-4 SU on the season and won/covered all four neutral court games during the regular season. In the A-10 Tourney, they got by both Saint Louis and VCU, two very good teams. Key here is the fact the Bonnies are 16th in the country in defensive efficiency, a huge edge over LSU. In fact, KenPom rates them as the better overall team in this matchup. I like the fact that teams are shooting less than 39% against them for the season. Remember that I did take LSU (plus the points) in the SEC Tourney Final vs. Alabama. But the Crimson Tide were also coming off a spirited come from behind win over Tennessee less than 24 hours prior. That was also the third meeting of the season between the teams. St. Bonaventure, a team with five double-digit scorers, is less familiar. LSU, for all its scoring prowess, has just four players averaging more than 4.2 PPG. The Tigers are 0-3 ATS L3 NCAA Tournament games. In a battle of two hot teams, the Bonnies are better. 10* St. Bonaventure |
|||||||
03-19-21 | Winthrop v. Villanova -6.5 | Top | 63-73 | Win | 100 | 80 h 39 m | Show |
10* Villanova (9:57 ET): It’s the one time of year when I’m looking to FADE underdogs. Bettors are craving upsets during the first round of the NCAA Tournament, which results in many “unfamiliar” sides becoming public darlings. I believe we’ve got one such team here in Winthrop. The fact this is a 12-5 matchup will be sure to attract the public’s eye even more, but the bottom line is that my own personal power ratings suggest this line is substantially off - double the discrepancy of any other first round line vs. my own power ratings. I’ll happily lay the number here. Yes, I’m well aware of the fact Villanova lost it starting PG (Collin Gillespie) to a season-ending injury. But they still finished off Creighton without him and should be well-rested coming into Friday after an early exit from the Big East Tournament. (They lost in the closing seconds to Georgetown). That early exit actually marked the second straight loss for the Wildcats and third in the last four games. But the last two were by a combined three points and games they could have easily won. This is the 1st time all year Nova has been off B2B losses. Winthrop has just one loss this season and it came by two points to UNC Asheville. They dominated the Big South this year, but that’s a pretty weak conference. The key to this game will be tempo as Winthrop likes to play fast while Villanova doesn’t. I think a massive overadjustment has been made here by the oddsmakers in light of Nova’s B2B losses and the Gillespie injury. I’m going to trust my power ratings here. Winthrop turns the ball over at a fairly high rate and I wonder about their interior defense going against the likes of co-Big East Player of the Year Jeremiah Robinson-Earl. 10* Villanova |
|||||||
03-19-21 | Morehead State v. West Virginia -13 | Top | 67-84 | Win | 100 | 55 h 7 m | Show |
analysis soon |
|||||||
03-19-21 | Pacers v. Heat -4 | Top | 137-110 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
10* Miami (8:05 ET): Indiana has been in a downward spiral for some time now as they’ve dropped 8 of their last 10 games overall, including three of four since the All-Star Break. Some tough matchups haven’t helped as they first had to go on the road to face the Lakers, Suns and Nuggets, followed by a home game vs. red hot Brooklyn. But the fact that they’ve gone just 1-8-1 ATS in those L10 contests speaks to the fact all's not well here. The Pacers are now five games below .500 on the year and now are set to face a Miami team that’s trending in a much different direction. Though the Heat are 11-2 SU their L13 games and up to 4th (place) in the Eastern Conference, they are off a loss here. Ja Morant hit the game winning layup with just over a second remaining as the Grizzlies ended up beating the Heat 89-85 on Wednesday. In the only two losses over the last month, Miami has been held to 85 points or less. That seems to be a recurring theme for them as they’ve now been held to 85 pts or less a league-high six times. But after the last one, they bounced back quickly and defeated the Pelicans by 10 points in the next game. Miami is now healthier than it's been all season, which helps explain the recent surge. They may also have Trevor Ariza making his debut tonight after acquiring him in a trade with OKC. This is the first time facing Indiana since the Heat swept them in the first round of last year’s playoffs. The teams play again here on Sunday. The Heat couldn’t have asked for a better time to face the Pacers than right now. By the way, Miami has been playing excellent defense of late as they’ve held seven of their last eight opponents below 100 points, a remarkable achievement in today’s NBA. 10* Miami |
|||||||
03-19-21 | Wisconsin +1.5 v. North Carolina | Top | 85-62 | Win | 100 | 77 h 52 m | Show |
analysis soon |
|||||||
03-19-21 | Liberty +7.5 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 60-69 | Loss | -110 | 76 h 17 m | Show |
8* Liberty (6:25 ET): Here’s an upset bid I do like. Oklahoma State is overvalued right now following a run to the Big 12 Tournament Final. The Cowboys had covered eight in a row before losing to Texas 91-86 (as three-point underdogs) on Saturday. They are 8-2 SU L10 games, the only other loss coming to then-undefeated Baylor. However, a number of those wins were close. Five of them were by five points or less. KenPom has them rated only 30th, very low for a 4-seed, and they aren’t in my Top 25 either. Take the points in this one. Speaking of win streaks, Liberty hasn’t lost since January 15th. The champions of the Atlantic Sun Conference have won 12 straight, not a surprise as they were double digit favorites for most of the games, but they also covered the spread in the majority of them. The fact that the Flames play at a very slow tempo, which will minimize the number of possessions in this game, should increase variance and improve their upset chances. Their lone double digit loss this year was the opener against Purdue. OSU has the likely next #1 overall draft pick in the NBA, Cade Cunningham. But that probably over-values them in the marketplace. This team is just 5-6 ATS as a favorite. Meanwhile, Liberty is 4-1 ATS as a dog. Believe it or not, Oklahoma State has not been favored in any game since they faced an Iowa State team that went winless in Big 12 play, back on February 16th. The only time all year that the Pokes were favored by more than three points against a NCAA Tournament team was the second game of the season vs. Texas Southern (who is in the “First Four.”) 8* Liberty |
|||||||
03-19-21 | Georgia Tech v. Loyola-Chicago -2.5 | Top | 60-71 | Win | 100 | 74 h 57 m | Show |
8* Loyola Chicago (4:00 ET): The Ramblers, everyone’s favorite from the 2018 Tournament (when they made a run to the Final Four) is back and they are DANGEROUS. While seeded only 8th, they led the country in defensive efficiency and are considered a Top 10 team (overall!) at KenPom. This is a team no #1 seed wanted to see in the second round, so Illinois better be prepared. But of course, Loyola must first take care of business in the Round of 64 against Georgia Tech. I think they will. Georgia Tech came out of nowhere to win the ACC Tournament. Keep in mind that they got a free pass into the Tournament Final when Virginia had to bow out due to COVID-19. That was after a narrow escape against fledgling Miami, who led them at the half despite playing its third game in as many days. Then, once again playing with a rest advantage, the Yellow Jackets somehow beat Florida State by five in the Final despite the Seminoles shooting 56% from the field and 53.3% from three-point range. The key to that game was FSU turning the ball over an astounding 25 times, leading to 31 Ga Tech points. Yes, it’s now an 8-game win streak for the Yellow Jackets, but I believe it’s a great time to “sell high” on them. As I stated earlier, Loyola is no joke. They are 24-4 SU on the year with the only loss in the last two months coming by a single point at Drake (in the second game of a back to back). They allow just 55.5 PPG (also #1 in the country) and are 22-2 SU/16-7-1 ATS when favored. They also shoot 50% themselves. Georgia Tech has very little depth and already has had a player test positive for COVID before arrival in the Tournament bubble. Before the current win streak, the Jackets were only 9-8 SU. 8* Loyola Chicago |
|||||||
03-19-21 | Utah State +4.5 v. Texas Tech | Top | 53-65 | Loss | -112 | 47 h 2 m | Show |
8* Utah State (1:45 ET): The Aggies of Utah State finished second in the Mountain West this season and were the runners up in the conference tournament. They are a top 10 team in the country in defensive efficiency. So I like ‘em getting points in this first round matchup with inconsistent Texas Tech. The Aggies have tremendous size in the frontcourt with 7-footer Neemias Queta averaging a double double (15.1 points, 10.0 rebounds) and forward Justin Bean right behind him in both departments (11.3, 7.7). Teams that have size have given Texas Tech problems all season. There’s always an upset or two on the first full day of the Tournament and this may very well be one of them. Take the points. Texas Tech has gone far in both of its previous NCAA Tournament appearances under HC Chris Beard. You may recall that I was quite high on them during their run to the Championship Game in the last Tournament (2019) where they ultimately fell to Virginia (in overtime). They were an Elite Eight team in 2018. Perhaps it’s this resume why most bettors seem to think the Red Raiders will be fine here. But this particular group is NOT as strong as those previous two Tourney teams. This year, Texas Tech ranks “just” 24th in defensive efficiency. That’s obviously still pretty good, but not as good as Utah State and not as good as the 2019 Red Raiders team that was #1 in the country in defensive efficiency. Texas Tech is 0-3 ATS in neutral court games this season and just 3-5 SU in its last eight games overall. Utah State is 4-0 ATS after a game where it was held to 60 pts or less. They are 20-6 SU overall L26 games with three of the losses by four points or less. 8* Utah State |
|||||||
03-18-21 | UCLA +2.5 v. Michigan State | Top | 86-80 | Win | 100 | 56 h 2 m | Show |
10* UCLA (9:57 ET): So UCLA’s regular season did not end well. They come into the NCAA Tourney having lost four in a row, those losses coming to: Colorado, Oregon, USC and Oregon State. Those would be the three teams I considered the best in the Pac 12 and also the team that won the conference tourney. Furthermore, it’s not like the Bruins played poorly in these games. Against USC, they led the whole way - until 1.3 seconds were left and the Trojans hit the GW three-pointer. Their exit at the hands of Oregon State in the Pac 12 quarterfinals may have been even more painful as they blew a 16 pt lead. You will probably hear numerous times about how Michigan State has wins over Illinois, Ohio State and Michigan in the last month. While that is rather impressive, Sparty was a clear underachiever this season. That’s evident by their 9-18 ATS record, which includes 3-11 when favored. They had those three impressive wins, but they also lost by 30 to Iowa and Rutgers. In three of their last five games, MSU failed to score 60 points, including a 68-57 exit against Maryland in the Big 10 Tournament. The fact UCLA has shot better than 50% its L5 games, but gone 1-4 SU, is a bit mystifying. They led the Pac 12 in three-point shooting this year at 39%. I think the Bruins are going to be a handful for a MIchigan State team that has just THREE wins outside of East Lansing this season while averaging just 63.5 PPG. UCLA has five double digit scorers, led by Kentucky transfer Johnny Juzang’s 14.0 PPG. They’ve led at the half in each of the L4 games, but are 0-4 SU! That’s insane! They are the better team here and should be favored. 10* UCLA |
|||||||
03-18-21 | Wolves v. Suns OVER 229 | Top | 123-119 | Win | 100 | 14 h 28 m | Show |
10* Over T’Wolves/Suns (10:05 ET): We all remember how the entire sports world was put on lockdown a little over a year ago. Since resuming, the Phoenix Suns have been one of the best teams in the entire NBA. They won all eight games in the bubble and while they were still denied a playoff berth, that hasn’t stopped them from starting this season 26-12. Truly one of the ascendent teams in this league, the Suns are only 2.5 games back of the Jazz for the top spot in the Western Conference as they have won 18 of their past 22 games. They are off a commanding 122-99 win over Memphis back on Monday. Minnesota operates at the opposite end of the spectrum. They have the fewest number of wins in the NBA (9) and have been the loser in 11 of their last 13 contests. Tuesday saw them go down 137-121 at the hands of the Lakers, who were playing the second night of a back to back. Thus the T’wolves were again denied B2B wins, something they have not done since starting the season 2-0! Since that time, they are just 7-31 SU overall. This is the first of two straight games for them here in Phoenix. The last time these teams played was Feb 28. That was a relatively low-scoring game with the Suns winning 118-99 (as a 10-pt favorite). Neither team shot well from 3-point range and it was a bad overall shooting night from Minnesota. Given that the T’wolves just allowed 137 points in their last game, I expect Phoenix to score plenty tonight. They’ve scored 120 or more in 8 of the last 12 games. Minnesota’s L5 games have averaged 241.4 points as they’ve topped 120 three times themselves while also giving up that many three times. They’ve allowed 135+ twice. The Over is 6-1 for them this season after a game where they allowed 130+ points. 10* Over T’Wolves/Suns |
|||||||
03-17-21 | Kings v. Wizards -3 | Top | 121-119 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
10* Washington (7:05 ET): Once again, I’m fading Sacramento. The last time I did so was Monday and sure enough they blew a 4Q lead and lost 122-116 in Charlotte. This play is quite similar in that we’re laying a short number to them on the road. Washington may not be as strong as Charlotte this season, but after losing to the Sixers and the Bucks twice, they should be ready to take advantage of a rare favorable spot. The Wizards’ current 1-6 SU slide is very much a byproduct of “who they’ve played” and I like them to bounce back here. The Kings lost more than a game on Monday. Marvin Bagley III, one of their top players, fractured his hand and will be out indefinitely. I’m sure the team will still figure out ways to score, but the issue for them remains on the defensive end where they are about as bad as anyone. No team in the league gives up more points per possessions and sure enough they’ve allowed 120+ points in five of the last six games. They shot 55.8% themselves on Monday and still lost. That dropped them to 3-13 SU since Feb 9 and those wins came against Detroit (worst team in the East), the Lakers (no LeBron/Davis) and Houston (17-game losing streak). Two of the three wins were by three points each. If there’s one thing that the Wizards do well, it’s score. So expect a ton of points from them tonight. Now, like the Kings, they too struggle at the defensive end. Notice how high the total is for this game. But, when the total is 230 or higher this season, Sacramento’s ATS record is just 4-12 (2-14 SU). Hopefully, 3-point shooting specialist Davis Bertans (knee) will be able to suit up tonight for the Wiz. If not, Bradley Beal (NBA’s leading scorer) and Russell Westbrook (off 23-17 game) should still carry them to a win and cover. 10* Washington |
|||||||
03-17-21 | Bucks v. 76ers UNDER 236.5 | Top | 109-105 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
8* Under Bucks/Sixers (7:05 ET): There are three elite teams in the NBA’s Eastern Conference this season and these are definitely two of them (Brooklyn being the other). Milwaukee has finished first in the East each of the L2 seasons (no NBA Finals appearances though) and has the best YTD point differential. But it’s Philadelphia leading the way so far this year with a 28-12 SU record and they’ve won six in a row. Not to be outdone, the Bucks come into tonight riding a four-game win streak. Something will have to give. Philly’s recent shooting spree was “due” to cool off and sure enough it did last night. While they still managed to beat the Knicks, they did so in low-scoring fashion, 99-96 as seven-point favorites. They had to come from behind to win and did so by holding the Knicks to just 14 points in the fourth quarter. The previous five games had seen the Sixers shoot a blistering 54.2% from the field, which couldn’t possibly be sustained and sure enough they shot just 41.1% last night, including 11 of 32 from three-point range. Milwaukee has scored 125+ in each of its last three games, but two of those were against Washington, who plays little to no defense. The Bucks shot 55.3% from the field in their last game, so they are due to “cool off” as well. The Sixers are #2 in the league in defensive efficiency and 4-1 Under this season when the total is 230 points or higher. This should be a hard fought game that stays Under a VERY high total. 8* Under Bucks/Sixers |
|||||||
03-16-21 | Thunder v. Bulls -5.5 | Top | 102-123 | Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
10* Chicago (8:05 ET): The East isn’t particularly deep this season (only three good teams, IMO) and there is only a four-game gap between 4th and 11 place in the conference. Chicago is a team “in the mix” despite a SU record of 17-20. They just took advantage of the shorthanded Raptors Sunday night, earning one of their most lopsided wins in awhile, 118-95 as a three-point favorite. Now the Bulls can make it B2B wins by beating what I consider one of the weaker teams in the league, Oklahoma City. It’s a home game and a short number and I say lay it. The Thunder are also coming off a win on Sunday as they beat the Grizzlies 128-122 as a 9.5-point home underdog. It was OKC’s third win in the last four games, though they are still closer to the bottom than the top in the West with a 17-22 overall record. They’ve been a bit more competitive than expected, especially on the road where their ATS record is 13-5. But by most objective measures, they still should be counted among the worst teams in the NBA. After a game where they score 115+ points, it's a good time to fade the Thunder. They are just 1-7 SU/2-6 ATS in this situation. Chicago didn’t even get much from leading scorer Zach LaVine against Toronto as their leading scorer finished with only 15 points, his second lowest total of the season. He had 35 in the first meeting with the Thunder though, which the Bulls lost 127-125 in OT. The Bulls were favored to win that game (-2.5) and I like the revenge angle here, especially considering their 15-5 ATS mark this season when facing teams with a losing record. OKC can be pesky on the road, but this number is too low. 10* Chicago |
|||||||
03-16-21 | Atalanta v. Real Madrid OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 25 h 43 m | Show |
10* Over Atalanta/Real Madrid (4:00 ET): Real Madrid is in the driver’s seat going into the second leg of this Round of 16 matchup in the Champions League. They won the first leg 1-0 away and did so without a number of key players on the pitch. The lone goal occurred in the 86th minute. So now Atalanta will need to win while scoring at least twice here in Madrid. That’s not that improbable of a scenario when you think about it, but the need for goal scoring will also leave the Serie A side open to attack. I feel the best course of action Tuesday is to play the Over. Real Madrid, surprisingly, haven’t fared all that well in the Champions League, winning just five of their last 11 in this competition. But they have done quite well against Italian sides, winning three in a row in this year’s UCL. On the domestic front, they are currently third in La Liga, maybe not where they want but they are in a good position to make it back to the UCL next season. Key to their recent success is the fact they’ve conceded no more than one goal in each of the last nine fixtures. That run will be put to the test here by Atalanta, who can score goals with the best of any European side. La Dea have the second most goals (63) this season in Serie A and just tallied three over the week against Spezia. This opponent will obviously be more difficult to crack, but - like I mentioned earlier - the need for goal scoring here will leave them open to attack. This should be higher scoring than the reverse fixture with a 2-1 outcome (either way) quite likely. 10* Over Atalanta/Real Madrid |
|||||||
03-15-21 | Clippers v. Mavs OVER 227 | Top | 109-99 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 44 m | Show |
10* Over Clippers/Mavericks (9:05 ET): Following a terrible 135-115 loss last night in New Orleans, Kawhi Leonard called the Clippers’ lack of consistency “very concerning.” He’s right. The team trailed by as many as 33 last night and is now only fourth in the Western Conference standings. They’ve dropped four of their last five games with the only win coming at home vs. Golden State. All four losses have come on the road - where they’ll be again tonight - and two were to sub-.500 teams. Speaking of inconsistent, it will be Dallas hosting the Clippers tonight. The Mavs have been on a recent uptick, winning five of their last six games, but are still only in 8th place. I expect better from them after an underachieving 2019-20 campaign. Saturday’s 116-103 win in Denver was definitely a step in the right direction, especially coming on the heels of a disappointing loss at Oklahoma City in the previous game. If there is one bright spot for the Clippers here, it’s the fact they are a perfect 6-0 ATS this season in the second night of back to back. But who could forget the last time they faced Dallas? They were down 50 points at halftime, which was a shot-clock era record, and suffered the worst defeat in franchise history (124-73). Obviously, they are going to score more tonight. But with a suspect defense (Pelicans shot 65.4% last night) and Patrick Beverley still M.I.A (and maybe Serge Ibaka too), the Clips will give up their fair share here as well. I see this game easily going Over the total as the Over has hit in each of the L4 Clippers’ games plus Dallas is 4-0 Over the L4 times it has been off a double digit win. 10* Over Clippers/Mavericks |
|||||||
03-15-21 | Kings v. Hornets -3 | Top | 116-122 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
8* Charlotte (7:05 ET): It would certainly appear as if the oddsmakers opened this line far too low. Not that I’m any kind of “big believer” in Charlotte, but Sacramento is most definitely one of the worst teams in the league (again) this season as they have the third worst record in the Western Conference and are giving up a league-high 120.0 PPG. Lay the points in this one. With three consecutive victories, the Hornets have climbed above the .500 mark and into sixth place in the Eastern Conference. This is something few would have imagined at the start of the season. In Saturday’s 114-104 win over the Raptors, they had a huge 1st quarter (44 points) and never really looked back. They wound up tying a season-high with 21 made three-pointers, 11 of those coming in the big opening quarter. Considering how porous the Kings are at the defensive end, Charlotte seems poised for another big offensive effort tonight. Two weeks ago, they won 127-126 in Sacramento, led by a career-best 42 points from PJ Washington. The Kings have split their two games since the All-Star Break, but are coming off a 15-point loss to the Hawks. They are also just 3-12 SU since Feb 9. Those three wins came against: Detroit (worst team in the East), the short-handed Lakers (no LeBron/Davis) and Houston (who is on a 16-game losing streak). Two of the three wins were by three points each. I know Charlotte has had its share of close wins recently, but unlike Sacramento, they can play defense. The current three-game win streak has seen them allow 102, 102 and 104 pts. With about 3,000 fans now allowed in, there’s a sense of home court advantage here. 8* Charlotte |
|||||||
03-14-21 | Jazz v. Warriors +7 | Top | 119-131 | Win | 100 | 7 h 59 m | Show |
10* Golden State (4:05 ET): The Utah Jazz were THE surprise team in the league in the first half. Not that no one expected to be good, but ascending to the top spot in the entire NBA was something few, if any, saw coming. But somewhat predictably, the Jazz have begun to “give a little back.” They lost their final two games before the All-Star Break, then failed to cover Friday against Houston, although they were massive 19-point favorites for that one. Golden State comes in on a season-worst four-game losing streak. Three of those losses - to the Lakers, Suns and Clippers. While it’s notable that those are three of the best teams in the Western Conference, so is the fact that all four losses have been on the road. Prior to this current losing skid, the Warriors had not dropped more than two in a row at any point this season. Ironically enough, this four-game losing streak came on the heels of their first three-game win streak of the season. The first Utah-Golden State matchup of the season did not go well for the Warriors as they lost by 19 points. But that game was in Salt Lake City. Seven of Utah’s nine losses this season have come on the road while Golden State is a solid 12-6 SU at home. Also interesting is the fact the Dubs were “only” 7-point underdogs when they visited Utah for that first meeting. Now the number is roughly unchanged for a home game. I’m seeing some value today on the underdog especially since they’ve won three straight here in San Francisco. 10* Golden State |
|||||||
03-14-21 | Juventus -185 v. Cagliari | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 15 h 54 m | Show |
6* Juventus (1:00 ET): After their disappointing (and somewhat shocking) exit from the Champions League, Juventus will try and “right the ship” here in Serie A this week as they face a Caligari side that’s only two points clear of the relegation zone. This is clearly a match where Juve should get the full three points. They’ve beaten Cagliari in eight of the last nine league matches keeping a clean sheet seven times. Though Cagliari is on a three-match unbeaten run since a managerial change, I’m not buying it. This was the year Juve’s run of dominance in Serie A was supposed to come to an end. To be fair, a lot of people thought the same last season and they went on to win their ninth straight league title. Currently, they sit third in the table and have the second best goal differential (+30). I think a return to the Champions League next season is a given, even if they don’t win the Scudetto. Let’s not forget they did defeat Porto on Tuesday. They only failed to advance due to the away goals tiebreaker. That was their third straight win across all competitions and they’ve scored three goals in each of those victories. Cagliari’s own unbeaten run appeared to be over last week as they trailed Sampdoria 2-1 before getting the equalizer in the sixth minute of added time. That incredible fortune followed wins over Bologna and Crotone, two sides in the bottom half of the table with the latter being in the basement and almost assured of relegation. Cagliari has scored the fourth fewest number of goals in all of Serie A and Juve had only conceded six times in their previous 13 matches across all competitions before Tuesday. 6* Juventus |
|||||||
03-14-21 | LSU +7 v. Alabama | Top | 79-80 | Win | 100 | 4 h 12 m | Show |
9* LSU (1:00 ET): I thought for sure that we “had” Alabama yesterday as Tennessee, a 4.5-point underdog, was up 48-33 early in the second half. But not only could the Vols not hold the lead, they failed to cover, losing 73-68. Thus the Crimson Tide, the regular season champs of the SEC, can now win their first conference tournament since 1991. LSU’s drought is even longer (1980) and they are the opposition after upsetting #2 seed Arkansas (who I have a lot of respect for) 78-71 on Saturday. The Tigers were 3.5-pt dogs yday, which is what my power ratings say the line should be here. Grab the points. LSU is #6 in the country in offensive efficiency and comes in averaging 82.4 PPG. So it typically takes a lot of points to defeat them. This is a double revenge game for the Tigers as they were blown out in both regular season matchups by Alabama. One of those was an awful 105-75 loss in Tuscaloosa while the other (in Baton Rouge) saw them lose by 18. So I guess I’m not surprised that this number has been bet up this morning. But I don’t think those regular season encounters are really indicative of the discrepancy between these two squads. While Alabama is certainly deserving of their Top 10 ranking and a team you should pay careful attention to when filling out your bracket this week, LSU is in my Top 25 as well. I see the underdog keeping this one closer than expected on Sunday. It’s the third game in three days for both teams and an outright upset seems more likely than a blowout. Alabama easily could have lost yesterday. They are without freshman guard Joshua Primo. While LSU is a bit suspect at the defensive end, they do defend the three-point line well as you saw yday vs. Arkansas. I think they’ll shoot better from distance here than they did in either regular season matchup with Bama. 9* LSU |
|||||||
03-14-21 | Loyola Maryland v. Colgate -9.5 | Top | 72-85 | Win | 100 | 14 h 58 m | Show |
10* Colgate (12:00 ET): A rare visit to the Patriot League for myself. This tournament has been spread out over the course of the last week with all the games played at campus sites, hosted by the higher seed. With top-seed Navy bounced in the quarterfinals (by Loyola MD), Colgate became the favorite and will host the Tournament Final. The Raiders have been big favorites in both of their tourney games so far. After not covering against Boston U in the quarters (won by 8 as 12-pt chalk), they annihilated Bucknell 105-75 (were -11) in the semis. Loyola MD, the 9-seed, caught a break in that they were supposed to play in the first round of the tournament but Holy Cross forfeited due to COVID. Then came B2B upsets, first over top seed Navy, then over 4-seed Army. The Greyhounds are only 6-10 SU on the year, including the two upsets in this tournament. They did not face Colgate in the regular season. But they are 0-7 SU their L7 visits here. I’d be absolutely stunned if Loyola pulled a third consecutive upset here. The Greyhounds’ good fortune continued beyond the Holy Cross forfeit as Navy was without two starters, so that helps explain that upset. The only loss for Colgate (13-1 SU) this season was by two points to Army. They are second in the country in scoring (86.4 PPG), trailing only Gonzaga, and have outscored their opponents by an average of 18.0 PPG. A win here would give the program its first NCAA Tournament appearance in a quarter century (the Adonal Foyle days!). They were probably the best team in the Patriot League this season and I expect them to dominate this game. 10* Colgate |
|||||||
03-14-21 | Real Sociedad -154 v. Granada | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -154 | 47 h 41 m | Show |
10* Real Sociedad (11:15 AM ET): I faded Granada last week and got lucky as they conceded an added time goal (91st minute) to lose 2-1 to Athletic Bilbao. It was their third loss in the last four La Liga matches and they’ve won only twice in the last 11. A win midweek in the Europa League (2-0 over Molde) is cause for some optimism, but now Granada must turn around and face a Real Sociedad side that’s not only in position to be playing European football next season, but maybe even in the Champions League. La Real have won four of six here in the Spanish top flight all while conceding only three times. They are now fifth in the table, just three points back of Sevilla, who has suddenly hit the skids. Sociedad’s goal differential is superior to Sevilla’s, so a win here could move them into the top four (Sevilla faces a tough test this week from Real Betis). History says that winning this week should not be a problem as they’ve beaten Granada in six of the last seven La Liga fixtures. That includes 2-0 in the reverse back in November. The case against Granada finishing in the upper half of the table is something I laid out in full in last week’s analysis. They have a negative goal differential (-12) that’s in line with the clubs closer to the bottom of the table. That negative goal differential is largely owed to the fact no side has conceded more goals in all of La Liga than Granada’s 44. They have not beaten a side that’s currently in the top half of the table since December. La Real should roll to the full three points Sunday. 10* Real Sociedad |
|||||||
03-13-21 | Ryan Spann v. Misha Cirkunov UNDER 1.5 | Top | 1-0 | Push | 0 | 35 h 37 m | Show |
10* Under Spann/Cirkunov (9:50 ET): This is a light heavyweight (205 lbs) battle, scheduled for three rounds on the main card. It is the co-main event. Do not expect this one to last very long, let alone go to the scorecards. The expectation for a finish is VERY strong here as the fight is currently listed at -425 to finish “inside the distance.” I believe it will end sooner than halfway point of Round 2. Take the Under 1.5 rounds. Misha Cirkunov is 15-5 in his career, 6-3 in UFC. All nine UFC fights have ended inside the distance, five of the six wins coming via submission. All three times he’s lost, he’s been TKO’d. Incredibly, the Under has hit in 13 of his previous 14 fights including each of the last six. None of those last six fights have made it out of the first round. In fact, only five of his 20 career fights have made it to Round 2. Three of those five instances took place prior to 2012. Ryan Spann is 18-6 overall, including 4-1 in UFC. He’s coming off a first round knockout loss to Johnny Walker back in September. But when Spann wins, it also tends to be in short order. All but one of his 15 career finishes have come prior to the halfway mark of Round 2. Nine of his last 11 fights have ended in Round 1. Spann will almost certainly be looking for the knockout here, but his takedown defense isn’t great and if this fight goes down to the mat, it’s likely to be Cirkunov winning in short order via submission. 10* Under Spann/Cirkunov |
|||||||
03-13-21 | North Texas +1 v. Western Kentucky | Top | 61-57 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
10* North Texas (9:00 ET): This is the C-USA Tournament Final. The winner goes to the NCAA Tournament, the loser will not. North Texas and Western Kentucky did not meet in the regular season. The last time they played was just over a year ago when North Texas won in overtime 78-72. Now they’ll try and do something they have not done since 2015 and that’s cover the spread against the Hilltoppers. The Mean Green are 0-8 ATS L8 head to head matchups, but are favored here and that’s telling. North Texas has not made the NCAA Tournament since 2010. They’ve won three games in three days this weekend, holding their opponents to an average of 53.5 PPG. That’s obviously very impressive, but probably should be expected seeing as the team is 10th in the country in scoring defense at 61.4 PPG. After crushing Middle Tennessee by 20 in their first tourney game, it’s been B2B six-point wins over Old Dominion and La Tech. The Mean Green are 8-1 ATS this season after allowing 60 points or less and they gave up just 48 on Friday. WKU is also strong at the defensive end. Over its last six games, they’ve allowed just 62 PPG on 39% shooting. Over the last two months, only one team has scored more than 71 points against them and that was Top 10 Houston. But those defensive numbers aren’t as good as what North Texas has produced. The Hilltoppers trailed UAB at the half yday despite shooting 50% from 3-point range. The player to watch here is UNT’s Javion Hamlet, who has averaged 18.0 points, 7.3 rebounds and 7.7 assists in this tournament. 10* North Texas |
|||||||
03-13-21 | Blazers -4 v. Wolves | Top | 125-121 | Push | 0 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
10* Portland (8:05 ET): While I’m a tad bit skeptical of the Blazers maintaining their current 6th place spot in the Western Conference, I do think they match up quite well with the T’wolves. Of course, most teams match up well with the T’wolves. Minnesota is in last place with an 8-29 SU record. They are arguably the worst team in the entire league, though they did start the second half with a shocking 30-point win over New Orleans. But they went into the All-Star Break on a 9-game losing streak, both SU and ATS. After the shocking win Thursday, look for the T’wolves to revert back to their losing ways tonight. They shot a season-high 53.7% against New Orleans, so the Break treated them well. The 135 points were also a season-best. However, this is a team that ranks 27th in offensive efficiency, so I don’t think the shooting we saw Thursday will carry over. The fact that the Pelicans shot 6 of 32 from three-point range while the T’wolves were 19 of 40 was key. New Orleans actually led by 16 early in the game! Portland’s second half to the season started with a 127-121 loss at home to Phoenix. The Suns are a really good team this year, so that result doesn’t bother me. The Blazers had actually beaten the Suns last week to go into the All-Star Break on a three-game win streak. The only previous meeting with Minnesota was a 135-117 win at home that featured a 47-point quarter. Minnesota got a career-high 28 points from a third string PG Thursday and has won B2B games only once all season (started 2-0!). 10* Portland |
|||||||
03-13-21 | Iowa +4 v. Illinois | Top | 71-82 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 1 m | Show |
8* Iowa (3:30 ET): I’ve got Iowa rated as the better team, so I’m taking the points here. Now there is no denying that Illinois is rolling. A couple months ago when they were underachieving a bit, I said to watch out for the Fighting Illini. They come into Saturday on a 5-game SU/ATS win streak including an impressive 90-68 thrashing of Rutgers last night. But just like the Illini, I feel Iowa is one of the five best teams in the country. It speaks to the strength of the Big 10 that such a matchup would take place in the tournament semifinals. Iowa won 62-57 yesterday, their second close win over Wisconsin in the last week. That they were able to win in such low-scoring fashion really impressed me. The Hawkeyes are typically known for out-scoring their opposition as they rank #2 in the country in offensive efficiency and #4 in points per game (84.2). That they held Wisconsin to just 57 points was a real nice “change of pace.” Uncharacteristically, they shot just 2 of 20 from three-point range. Look for that to turn around in a major way here. Presumed Player of the Year Luke Garza still scored 24 yday. This will be just the fifth time all season that Iowa is an underdog. The last time saw them go to Ohio State and win big. While Illinois has won 12 of 13, the Hawkeyes are 8-1 SU their L9 games (only loss at Michigan). The Illini did take the lone regular season meeting, but by only five points and that was in Champaign-Urbana. Illinois is only 1-4 ATS when coming off a SU win by 20 or more points. Iowa is undervalued here. 8* Iowa |
|||||||
03-13-21 | Ohio State +6.5 v. Michigan | Top | 68-67 | Win | 100 | 4 h 20 m | Show |
8* Ohio State (1:00 ET): Friday marked the second day in a row that Ohio State failed to protect a big lead, yet managed to survive and advance. They were up 18 at the half on Purdue yday, but saw that entire lead slip away over the course of the last 20 minutes of regulation and overtime was needed to decide things. As you know, the Buckeyes were my 10* Game of the Week. I couldn’t watch any longer, so I actually turned the game off. I was quite pleased several minutes later when I checked my phone and saw that they won 87-78, easily covering the 1-point spread. Because their last two games have ended up being close, we’re getting another good value on Ohio State today. I brought up a 5-game ATS losing skid they were on going into yesterday. That’s over now. They also led Minnesota by 14 with 3 ½ minutes to go on Thursday. So the Buckeyes have played pretty well in this tournament. They’ve just struggled to protect leads. That’s less of an issue now that they come in as the underdog, a role they have been in just twice since the start of February. The last time OSU was an underdog was against Michigan, a game they lost 92-87. That’s one of three losses by 5 points or less that they’ve suffered since Feb 21. This is the most points they’ve gotten in any game all year since before X-Mas. Michigan’s game yesterday was just the opposite of Ohio State’s. The Wolverines trailed by 12 early before storming back. I expect this one to be close as my power ratings say the number should be closer to +3. Ohio State has five outright wins as a dog this season and is 4-1 ATS the L5 times catching points. 8* Ohio State |
|||||||
03-13-21 | Tennessee +5 v. Alabama | Top | 68-73 | Push | 0 | 4 h 19 m | Show |
8* Tennessee (1:00 ET): Both teams won their quarterfinal games in blowout fashion yesterday. Alabama hammered Mississippi State 85-48 as 7.5-point chalk. As impressive a win as that was, Tennessee beating a good Florida team by double digits may have impressed me more. The Volunteers never trailed in the contest and were up by as many as 17 in the second half. Now it’s looking likely that they’ll be without senior John Fulkerson for this game. But that’s caused the number to balloon and the Vols are a really good value here getting points. I have these teams rated pretty evenly. Fulkerson does lead Tennessee in field goal percentage, but they also have three double digit scorers to pick up the slack. Then you’ve got Yves Pons, who nearly had a triple double yesterday with 11 points, eight rebounds and nine blocks. Alabama could also be missing one of its standouts, starting guard Josh Primo, as he left yday’s game with an apparent knee injury. If Primo were to be out, that would certainly “cancel out” the Fulkerson injury. Alabama probably could not have played any better than they did yesterday. They were up huge most of the game, forced MSU to turn it over 18 times and held them to 1 of 19 from three-point range. But Tennessee will be tougher. To me, the Vols are a Top 25 team (even though they are not ranked). They’ve got revenge from a loss in the regular season. The Crimson Tide are just 1-4 ATS following a win by 20+ points and I feel are being overvalued off the big blowout win. Take the points. 8* Tennessee |
|||||||
03-12-21 | Pacers v. Lakers -4.5 | Top | 100-105 | Win | 100 | 24 h 14 m | Show |
8* LA Lakers (10:35 ET): Indiana’s first half ended with an 0-6 ATS run and they lost outright in five of those six games. The one victory was by only three points against Cleveland and even then they trailed by 19 in that game. The end result of this is the Pacers have fallen from the top eight in the Eastern Conference and are in a precarious position right now, sitting at 16-19 SU overall. They get no breaks to start the second half as they have to head to LA to face LeBron and the Lakers. Now the Lakers’ weren’t exactly playing their best basketball heading into the Break either. Playing without Anthony Davis, they dropped six of eight in what was their worst stretch all year. LeBron sat out the last game, a 123-120 loss to Sacramento, so take that result with a “grain of salt.” The rest came at a good time for this team as LeBron had really been shouldering a huge load. I think we’ll see them come out strong at home Friday night and this is really a short line when you think about it. Indiana is still waiting for Caris LeVert to finally suit up. He may return later in this road trip, but not tonight. LeVert was supposed to fill the void left by trading Victor Oladipo and the Pacers have really struggled since that move was made as they don’t have a reliable third scorer. Defensively, they were torched in their previous five games, allowing the opponents to shoot a collective 53.4% from the field. The Pacers have failed to cover their last eight games as an underdog. 8* LA Lakers |
|||||||
03-12-21 | Oregon State v. Oregon UNDER 139.5 | Top | 75-64 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
8* Under Oregon State/Oregon (8:30 ET): Oregon State’s impressive ATS run continued yesterday as they knocked out UCLA 83-79 in Pac 12 quarterfinal action. It was the Beavers’ 14th cover in the last 17 games. Here they’ll face one of the teams they failed to cover against, top-seed Oregon, who beat them 80-67 in the regular season finale at Corvallis. Note that OSU did take the season’s first meeting, 75-64 in Eugene, but that came at a time when the Ducks were playing very short-handed. Oregon had no problems yesterday as they blew out Arizona State 91-73 as a 9.5-point favorite. The Sun Devils were playing their second game in as many as days (I won w/ them on Weds). Oregon was insanely hot from the field in the second half, scoring 56 points while not missing consecutive shots for almost a 15-minute stretch! The Ducks wound up shooting 59% for the game, including 10 of 18 from three-point range, the type of clip that will be awfully hard to duplicate here against their rivals. That said, the Ducks did shoot 57.4% overall and 65.2% in the regular season finale. You’ve got to think Oregon’s shooting HAS to cool down though as they are above 58% the L3 games and the Over is 6-0 L6 games. Couple that with the fact Oregon State’s final score yday was a byproduct of OT and I think you’ve got a great situation to play the Under here. The Beavers were down 16 in the 2H against UCLA before storming back with a shocking rally. Both teams are now playing w/o rest, so that’s a perfect time for them to “cool off” from the field. OSU was only averaging 63.4 PPG away from home this season going into yesterday. 8* Under Oregon State/Oregon |
|||||||
03-12-21 | Nuggets -3.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 103-102 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 44 m | Show |
10* Denver (8:05 ET): With a four-game win streak going into the All-Star Break, the Nuggets were able to climb up into fifth place in the Western Conference. They were able to cover the spread in all four of those victories as well. Two were 30-point blowouts, one of them at Milwaukee, and what’s most impressive of all is that all four wins came on the road. Before heading back to Denver for a five-game homestand, the Nuggets wrap up their road trip tonight in Memphis. The Grizzlies are also on a 4-0 ATS win streak. But, unlike Denver, they did not win every game straight up as there was a one-point loss to Milwaukee. Nor was every game on the road. The one-point loss to the Bucks was here at home as was a 127-112 win over hapless Washington Weds night. So Memphis has a game under its belt since the break, which is not the case with Denver. I don’t really see that as being an advantage for either side heading into tonight. The Grizzlies do not have much of a home court advantage as they are just 8-11 SU on their own floor this season. Looking at their three previous wins, two were against Washington and the other against Houston, who is arguably the coldest team in the league right now. The fact Denver went to Milwaukee and won by 31 is incredibly impressive. Nikola Jokic has been playing out of his mind and the team is now 4th in the league in points per game (115.9). Memphis is 4-10 ATS following a double digit win. 10* Denver |
|||||||
03-12-21 | Ohio State -1 v. Purdue | Top | 87-78 | Win | 100 | 16 h 44 m | Show |
10* Ohio State (2:30 ET): It speaks to the overall strength of the Big 10 that this, a matchup of Top 20 teams, would be a quarterfinal matchup in the conference tournament. Ohio State had to win yesterday just to get here. They beat Minnesota 79-75, however they failed to cover the 11-point spot. It was the Buckeyes fifth consecutive ATS loss, a streak which also happens to include four STRAIGHT UP losses. Conversely, Purdue SURGED at the end of the regular season, winning and covering its last five games. I think those respective ATS streaks set us up with a nice value on Ohio State today. It certainly is telling that the lower seed is favored, albeit slightly, against a rested opponent. The Buckeyes’ losing streak featured numerous “close calls” as losses to Illinois, Michigan State and Michigan were all by 5 points or less. While I do have serious questions about the Buckeyes’ defense come NCAA Tournament time, they did a decent enough job at that end in two regular season meetings vs. Purdue (allowed 67 pts both games). Now the Boilermakers won both (regular season matchups), one by two points and the other by seven (back in December). So in addition to being a “buy low” spot on OSU, it’s also a matter of double revenge. I also think this is a good time to “sell high” on Purdue, who came from the middle of the pack to “steal” a double bye from the Buckeyes. Ohio State got off to a 13-0 start in yday’s game and was up 14 with 3 ½ minutes remaining. So the fact they did not cover was disappointing. Purdue’s schedule over the last month was relatively weak by Big 10 standards. 10* Ohio State |
|||||||
03-11-21 | Celtics v. Nets -2.5 | Top | 109-121 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
10* Brooklyn (7:35 ET): I think it’s fair to say there are three teams better than the rest in this year’s Eastern Conference. Milwaukee, in my view, is still the best. But Brooklyn is probably #2 and certainly has the most star-laden roster. In addition to Durant, Irving and Harden, the Nets now have Blake Griffin among their ranks in what is shaping up to be a “Championship or bust” type of campaign. The second half gets underway with a home game against Boston, who has underachieved and is not in their league. The Celtics are currently 4th in the East but as I indicated above, there is a definite gap between them and the top three. That gap was shrunk somewhat when they won their final four games before the All Star Break. All four wins were pretty close though (by seven points or less) and at home. The team is just 7-12 SU on the road so far and 6-13 against the spread. Boston has lost six straight on the road and they are 0-3 SU/ATS their L3 visits to Brooklyn. On X-Mas, they lost by 28 to the Nets - at home. Now Durant and Griffin aren’t playing tonight, but that’s OK seeing as Harden has been on fire, averaging 25.5 points, 11.4 assists and 8.7 rebounds with the Nets while delivering eight triple doubles.They lead the league in scoring (121.1 PPG) and “oh, by the way” are 10-1 SU/ATS their L11 games. Brooklyn is now actually the betting favorite to win the NBA Finals and while I’m not sure I agree with that, this line is far too short given that marketplace projection. Their last three wins have all been by double digits. 10* Brooklyn |
|||||||
03-11-21 | Montana State -2.5 v. Idaho State | Top | 71-63 | Win | 100 | 9 h 37 m | Show |
9* Montana State (4:00 ET): Montana State is a putrid 0-8 ATS its last eight games, but they are still favored to win this quarterfinal matchup in the Big Sky Tournament against Idaho State. I think that’s telling, especially considering the Bobcats are the lower seed. Admittedly, we’re talking about a 5-seed over a 4-seed, but I think this is a great “buy low” spot. Regulars may recall that I took Idaho State last week as a big underdog against Eastern Washington. They shocked even me by winning that game outright. Almost immediately though, they reverted back to prior form, losing the rematch 75-62. So Idaho State has dropped three of four coming into this tournament. Granted, that’s not as bad as Montana State dropping six of eight. But save for the shocker over Eastern Washington that I was on, the Bengals don’t have a lot of impressive wins on their resume. The bottom four teams in the Big Sky are all quite bad and that’s who six of the seven wins in January/February were against. The other was against a non-DI team. In case you’re wondering, no, these teams did not play in the regular season. They were supposed to in early February, but those games were cancelled. The favorite is 11-2 ATS the L13 head to head matchups. Montana State had to play Eastern Washington and Weber State a total of four times down the stretch, which helps explain the swoon. (Those are the two best teams in the league). The Bobcats are coming off a 1-point loss and should be highly motivated to win today. 9* Montana State |
|||||||
03-11-21 | Seton Hall -1 v. St. John's | Top | 77-69 | Win | 100 | 8 h 38 m | Show |
10* Seton Hall (3:00 ET): IMMEDIATE REVENGE! Seton Hall lost to St. John’s in the regular season finale 81-71 as a 2.5-point favorite. Full disclosure - I had the Pirates in that game. Things definitely looked good early as the Pirates scored the game’s first 18 points! At halftime, they led 38-28. But things fell apart after that as the Johnnies scored a season-high 53 in the 2H and thus earned the 4-seed for this Big East Tournament. Ultimately, the seeding designation meant nothing as here we are with the teams playing yet again. Seton Hall has lost four straight times as a favorite and is 0-6 ATS its L6 overall. But I’m going to “double down” here on them. The fact they were up 18-0 and lost Saturday is pretty ridiculous. They did beat St. John’s in the first meeting of the season, 77-68 as 6-point chalk. This late season swoon may very well end up costing the Pirates a NCAA Tournament berth. Right now, they are in the “Next Four Out” category according to Joe Lunardi. But there’s still time to change that. As I anticipated, the offense did get back on track a little bit Saturday. It was their second highest scoring game since Valentine’s Day. St. John’s is terrible defensively as they allow almost 80 PPG away from home. There were two times I faded the Red Storm in February and both bets were successful. One was when they faced DePaul as 11.5-point chalk and they lost that game outright. PG Posh Alexander (thumb) may return Thursday, but I still have the Johnnies as the lower-rated side here. Their lack of defense is a huge liability and has cost them games in the past. Seton Hall is much better than the recent results show and they are 17-5-1 ATS their L23 neutral site games. 10* Seton Hall |
|||||||
03-11-21 | Kansas State v. Baylor OVER 137 | Top | 68-74 | Win | 100 | 5 h 56 m | Show |
8* Over Kansas State/Baylor (2:30 ET): Last night couldn’t have gone better for Kansas State as they routed TCU 71-50 in 1st round Big 12 Tournament action. The Wildcats were 3.5-point underdogs going into that contest, so the margin of victory was definitely surprising. They used two big second half runs - 16-0 and 21-2 - to break the game open. What shouldn’t have been all that surprising is that the game stayed Under. It was the fifth time in their last six games that KSU held its opponent under 60 points and seventh straight Under for them. But the task is about to get a lot more difficult. Considering how many points Baylor scored against Kansas State in the two regular season matchups, the odds of the Wildcats’ Under streak continuing here seem slim. Both times Baylor scored 100+ as they won those games by an average of 39.5 PPG. The Bears are the #1 seed in the Big 12 tournament, having lost only one game all year and that was to Kansas in the second game back from a long COVID-19 layoff. In the three games since, the Bears have averaged 87.7 PPG and topped 80 in every contest. Baylor is 8-1 Over its last 9 games overall and the Over is also 8-1 in the last nine head to head meetings between these two teams. Both of this year’s regular season games obviously flew Over and while the Bears may not score 100 again today, we probably won’t need them to. They average 85.3 PPG for the year, so all we’re looking at from Kansas State is about 60, which seems rather doable. 8* Over Kansas State/Baylor |
|||||||
03-11-21 | Oklahoma State v. West Virginia -2.5 | Top | 72-69 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 8 m | Show |
8* West Virginia (11:30 AM ET): WVU gets an immediate shot at redemption in the first quarterfinal matchup of the day in the Big 12 Tournament. They face Oklahoma State, who just beat them 85-80 in the regular season finale. The game was in Morgantown with the Mountaineers favored by 10 as OSU was missing its leading scorer, freshman Cade Cunningham. The Cowboys have really been surging of late as they’ve won six of their last seven games (6-0 ATS L6) and are ranked #12 in the country. But even with the probability that Cunningham will return to the lineup today, I feel this is a great “sell high” opportunity on OSU, who I now view as one of the more “overrated” teams in the country. Not only do I not believe they are a top 12 team in the country, my own power ratings don’t even have them in the Top 30! Some of the teams they’ve been recently, WVU included (also Texas Tech and Oklahoma twice), make for quality wins. But with that run and the fact they’ve covered six straight, you gotta figure they’re due to “drop one” sooner rather than later. They shot almost 58% on Saturday in Morgantown with Avery Anderson III scoring a career-high 31 points. That’s not happening again today. With a win here, West Virginia HC Bob Huggins would join just four other coaches with 900 for his career. After being denied the honor Saturday, you can bet he’ll have his team motivated today. Consider that the Mountaineers have not lost a game by more than five points since before X-Mas and two of their last three losses came in OT. They are 4-1 ATS off a conference loss this season. 8* West Virginia |
|||||||
03-10-21 | Notre Dame +6.5 v. North Carolina | Top | 59-101 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
8* Notre Dame (9:00 ET): The Fighting Irish needed a buzzer-beater to get by Wake Forest last night, so most won’t be giving them a chance here as they face 6-seed North Carolina in the second round of the ACC Tournament. But falling into a big early hole is what really hurt the Irish yesterday. Wake Forest opened the game on a 21-9 run, but ND quickly moved to cut into that margin and ended the game on a 17-2 scoring run of their own. They shot 51.7% from the field, including 12 of 26 from 3-point range. I certainly didn’t like the Irish as favorites yesterday. That non-cover dropped them to 1-5 ATS their L6 games overall. But let’s not forget what they did the last time they were an underdog. It was last Saturday when they stunned Florida State in South Bend. The Irish have scored at least 80 points in three of their last four games, so - to me - they are a pretty dangerous dog. In this season’s only meeting with UNC, they lost by only one (66-65) as a 9.5-point dog in Chapel Hill. That game was decided in the closing seconds. The Tar Heels probably feel pretty good about themselves heading into this Tournament. They just clobbered rival Duke 91-73 last Saturday. But they lost the last time they were on the road (72-70 at Syracuse) and are just 6-8 SU away from Chapel Hill this season. Five of their last six games were at home. It’s been almost two months since they won B2B ACC games. The underdog has covered five of the last seven head to head meetings between these two. This is one where you’ll want to take the points as “the world” figures to be on UNC. 8* Notre Dame |
|||||||
03-10-21 | Spurs v. Mavs -4 | Top | 104-115 | Win | 100 | 23 h 39 m | Show |
10* Dallas (8:35 ET): I’m expecting a big second half from the Mavs. Reason being they underachieved last year and that typically leads to a higher finish in Y+1. Currently, they are eighth in the Western Conference, but have won three in a row, including an impressive 115-98 road win over the Nets. They’ve won 9 of the last 11 overall, so really the “turnaround” is already underway. They’ve also won four of the last five regular season meetings with the Spurs, including the last one, 122-117 in San Antonio. That was back on January 22nd and the Mavs would then go on a perplexing six-game losing streak that led to a lot of finger pointing. But as already detailed, the ship seems to have been righted and the fact the Mavs were able to win their last game without Luka Doncic was encouraging. Doncic will play Wednesday and considering he had 36 the last time these teams played, I’m expecting a big game from the All-Star. He comes in averaging 28.6 points, 8.4 rebounds and 9.0 assists for the season. The Spurs are 7th in the West, one spot ahead of Dallas. But I’m not sold on them maintaining that position with this “motley crew” of a roster. HC Greg Popovich will always have his team playing hard, but San Antonio went into the break with a loss to OKC. They are bottom seven in the league in effective field goal percentage and just 5-12 ATS the L17 meetings with Dallas. I took the Mavs in that prior meeting and will do so again here. 10* Dallas |
|||||||
03-10-21 | Washington State v. Arizona State | Top | 59-64 | Win | 100 | 18 h 4 m | Show |
10* Arizona State (4:00 ET): While the injury news seems to be in Washington State’s favor heading into this 1st round matchup in the Pac 12 Tournament, I’m still siding with ASU. The Sun Devils last win came against the Cougars and while they did not cover the 5-point spread, all we’re going to need this time is a SU win. That previous meeting went to overtime, but Arizona State led virtually the entire game. They did so despite Wazzu shooting a higher percentage from three. The Sun Devils have been a bit snakebit in that they are just 5-22-1 ATS their L28 games overall. Eventually, that record HAS to turn around. Now Washington State did not have its leading scorer (Isaac Bonton) for that last meeting w/ ASU. Reportedly, he is set to return Wednesday. But I question just how effective Bonton and his teammates will be here considering they haven’t taken the floor since losing to ASU on 2/27. That’s an 11-day gap between games. The Cougars are just 6-12 SU since the New Year with three of the wins coming vs. Washington or Cal. They also took advantage of Oregon when the Ducks were depleted. Arizona State may be without its two standout freshmen, but I trust Bobby Hurley’s team will still be able to get the job done here. The regular season finale at Utah was obviously a disaster, but the Sun Devils did play Colorado tough on the road before that, at least until faltering late. I refuse to believe a team can be so inept when it comes to covering the spread and this looks to be a tremendous value. Remy Martin is due for a big game after struggling in last weekend’s pair of road games. He averages a team-high 19.9 PPG and had eight straight of 20+ before the nose diving against Colorado and Utah. 10* Arizona State |
|||||||
03-10-21 | San Jose State v. Wyoming OVER 150.5 | Top | 80-111 | Win | 100 | 16 h 4 m | Show |
8* Over San Jose State/Wyoming (2:00 ET): This is pretty much the opposite of my three successful Under wagers the past two days. We’ve got two BAD defensive teams, one of which (San Jose State) stayed Under in each of its final six regular season contests. But let’s not sugarcoat things. The Spartans are an absolutely awful basketball team. They are giving up 82.2 PPG away from home for the season. Not to be outdone, Wyoming allows 76.7 PPG away from home. Expect this 1st round tournament game in the Mountain West to go Over the total. San Jose State somehow did not finish last in the MWC this year. They did go 3-13 SU in conference play, but both Air Force and New Mexico each found ways to be worse. In my opinion (and according to my power ratings), San Jose State was the worst team in the MWC this season. Regardless, all you need to know is that the bottom of the MWC is really bad. There is a significant gap between those bottom three teams and everyone else, so Wyoming has every right to be a sizable favorite here. Still, I’d never lay double digits with the Cowboys due to the fact they are not good defensively. Opponents shot better than 50% against them for the SEASON in conference play! Wyoming did close the regular season on a 4-0 ATS run, but two of those wins were against New Mexico. Seeing as the Cowboys average 75.6 PPG for the year, they should have no issue scoring today and even better is the fact they average 83.1 PPG when favored. These teams did not play in the regular season, but I think SJSU is capable of delivering one of its highest scoring games to date. Due to three cancellations, they haven’t played since February 21st. They’ll have to score as they rank 338th nationally in PPG allowed. Wyoming shot 55.1% on Saturday in its win over UNLV. 8* Over San Jose St/Wyoming |
|||||||
03-09-21 | Elon v. Drexel -3.5 | Top | 56-63 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
10* Drexel (7:00 ET): We’ve got a 6-seed (Drexel) and an 8-seed (Elon) competing in the Colonial Athletic Association Tournament Final on Tuesday. Obviously, this league is nowhere near the heights it achieved 10-15 years ago with the likes of VCU and George Mason (both of whom have since bailed for the “greener pastures” of the A-10). It’s really been “wide open” ever since those teams left and the fact we’ve got a 6 and an 8 seed playing in the Tournament Final speaks to that. However, I think Drexel was actually one of the better CAA teams this year and is quite likely to move on to the “Big Dance” next weekend. Other than regular season champ James Madison (who got bounced by Elon in the quarterfinals), Drexel had the highest rating among CAA teams over at KenPom. My own power ratings actually call them the BEST team in the CAA this season! So I’m not at all surprised to see the Dragons here. They were favored against 3-seed Charleston and 2-seed Northeastern in their first two tournament matchups. If you’re wondering how they ended up being the 6-seed, well that’s because they’ve played only five games since the beginning of February! That includes their two tourney games. Meanwhile, Elon is playing its fourth game in as many as days in what has been an improbable run. I did not expect to see them here. The Phoenix are a perfect 7-0 SU/ATS their L7 games and were the underdog in five of them. Three of those seven wins came against either Towson or William & Mary, the bottom two in the CAA. Elon did upset top-seed James Madison, but that was a 1-point win where they were down 10 at the half. Even with the high stakes here, you’ve got to think the tank is “near empty.” Drexel is 8-3 ATS as a favorite this season, so I won’t hesitate to lay the short number. 10* Drexel |
|||||||
03-09-21 | Boston College v. Duke UNDER 153.5 | Top | 51-86 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
8* Under Boston College/Duke (4:30 ET): So the ACC Tournament gets underway on Tuesday and in a rare sight we’ve got Duke playing in the Opening Round. This was most definitely a “down year” in Durham as the Blue Devils went just 11-11 SU and ended their regular season on a three-game losing streak. They most definitely need to win this tourney, or at least get to the final, to have any chance of making the “Big Dance” this weekend. One would think they would prevail today, but Boston College did upset Notre Dame not that long ago. Because of the “must-win” belief and the fact Duke is still one of the most “public” sides in all of College Hoops, the line is a little bit inflated here. Still, I really have zero interest in endorsing a BC side that has won just two games since X-Mas. Some of the losses have been close, like Friday’s 80-76 loss at Miami. But Miami is depleted and then you have losses like the one the Eagles were handed last Wednesday by Florida State (94-63). This is a matchup where I’m focused on the total. Duke has gone Over in six straight. But before UNC routed them on Saturday, the previous two losses both came in OT. They allowed just 64 and 65 points in regulation in those two contests. In many ways, handicapping this matchup reminds me of yday’s two successful Under wagers. You’ve got a team on a long Over run, but some of that is due to multiple OT games. When these teams met in the regular season, the score ended up 83-82 (Duke won), but BC shot the ball extremely well (56% overall including 9 of 16 from three), a performance they won’t be repeating today. The Eagles have lost two of their top three scorers since that loss to Duke. This will likely end up closing as the highest O/U line for either team all season. Duke is 20-8 Under in neutral site games when the total is 150 to 154.5. 8* Under Boston College/Duke |
|||||||
03-08-21 | Northern Kentucky v. Oakland UNDER 148.5 | Top | 58-69 | Win | 100 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
10* Under Northern Kentucky/Oakland (9:30 ET): The quarterfinals of the Horizon League Tournament, which occurred all the way back on Tuesday, were utterly insane. Three of the four games went to overtime (one of which, Cleveland State-IPFW, went to TRIPLE OT!) and the one that did end in regulation was decided by a single point. After the four remaining teams were allowed plenty of time to “catch their breath,” things will resume tonight with both semi-finals taking place in Indianapolis. Northern Kentucky was the lone Horizon League team to win its quarter final game in regulation. It did so by beating Detroit 70-69 as a 1.5-point dog. The Norse seem to be peaking at the right time as that win was their 9th in the last 11 games and they are 4-0 ATS L4. It was impressive that they held Detroit to only 69 points considering the Titans shot 51% from the field, including 13 of 31 from behind the arc. The game stayed Under. Oakland’s 87-83 OT win over Youngstown State in the quarterfinals obviously went Over. That’s now eight straight Overs for the Golden Grizzlies, who are 21-6 Over on the year. But this is not a great shooting team (40.4 FG% away from home). These teams did NOT meet in the regular season and while both meetings LY did go Over those O/U lines were significantly lower than the one we’ve got here. I think the value is on the Under tonight. 10* Under Northern Kentucky/Oakland |
|||||||
03-08-21 | Wisc-Milwaukee v. Cleveland State UNDER 141 | Top | 65-71 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
8* Under Milwaukee/Cleveland State (6:30 ET): The quarterfinals of the Horizon League Tournament, which occurred all the way back on Tuesday, were utterly insane. Three of the four games went to overtime with one (Cleveland State-IPFW) going to TRIPLE OT. After the four remaining teams were allowed plenty of time to “catch their breath,” things will resume tonight with both semi-finals taking place in Indianapolis. The first semi features two of the most fortunate teams in all of America, Cleveland State and Milwaukee. Cleveland State is the regular season champion of the Horizon League, but perhaps THE luckiest team in the country. Their luck rating is #1 at KenPom. The Vikings have six wins by four points or less this season. During a 17-4 SU, very few of their wins HAVEN’T been close. In that same vein, Milwaukee is now 3-0 SU in OT games this season. One of those OT wins was against Cleveland State on 1/23, a game they trailed by 13 with 1:59 remaining. The quarterfinal win against #2 seed Wright State was perhaps even more improbable seeing as the Panthers were down 24 with 6:26 left. Obviously, both teams’ quarterfinal games ended up high-scoring due to overtime. Milwaukee has now seen its last nine games all go Over and Cleveland State is 7-2-1 Under its L10. But I think the total for tonight is too high, especially when you compare it to the O/U lines from the two regular season matchups (131.5, 135). The first game ended up 64-53 in CSU’s favor. Milwaukee shot very poorly in both games and hasn’t been above 50% in any game since early January. 8* Under Milwaukee/Cleveland State |
|||||||
03-08-21 | Alavés v. Betis UNDER 2.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -135 | 7 h 22 m | Show |
10* Under Alaves/Real Betis (3:00 ET): Real Betis has climbed its way up the La Liga table and is now in a position (6th) where they can at least start thinking about Europa League qualification (need to finish in the top 5). They are still a full nine points back of the top four, so Champions League qualification may be a “pipe dream.” Truthfully, I’m stunned to see this side so high in the table given that they’ve got 10 losses and a YTD goal differential of -5. In my opinion, several clubs below them are actually stronger. Alaves is not stronger. In poor form, they’ve dropped three straight here in La Liga and sit 19th in the table, meaning the threat of relegation is very real at this point. They are tied with Eibar (18th), but behind on goal differential. A win Monday would actually get them into safety as they’d leapfrog two teams. But picking this side to win, even against an overachieving club like Betis, seems far-fetched right now. They have not scored more than one goal in 12 consecutive matches. With just one goal scored during the current three-match losing skid, Alaves is tied for the fewest number of goals in the league this season. Real Betis is hardly a “scoring machine” either. They’ve netted only 33 goals from 25 matches, putting them firmly in the middle of La Liga in that regard. They are coming off B2B 1-0 victories over Getafe and Cadiz, two bad teams, and that very well could be the final score again Monday. It was the score in the reverse fixture back in September. 10* Under Alaves/Real Betis |
|||||||
03-07-21 | Appalachian State v. Coastal Carolina -4 | Top | 64-61 | Loss | -112 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
8* Coastal Carolina (9:00 ET): In my view, Appalachian State is clearly the weakest of the four semifinalists in this Sun Belt Tournament. That's hardly a “hot take” considering the Mountaineers are the only team of the four left standing that did NOT finish in the top two of either Sun Belt division. They got here first with a 67-60 win over Little Rock, then a 76-73 win against Texas State. The latter was an upset (ASU was +5) and a game that went to OT after the Mountaineers pulled off a second-half rally. I think their run ends here. Coastal Carolina has only had to play one tourney game to this point and it was rout as they beat Troy 86-68 yesterday. Interestingly enough, the Chanticleers’ last three wins have all come against Troy as have five of their last seven wins overall. They enter tonight’s semi final on a 4-game win streak. Even though Texas State (who App State beat yday) was technically the 1-seed in this tournament, I have Coastal Carolina rated higher in my own power ratings. The Chanticleers scored 53 pts in the 2H yesterday. The only edge App State has in this matchup is they take better care of the basketball. Do not expect them to match yday’s 12 of 27 shooting from 3-point range. They are only 10th in the Sun Belt in three-point shooting. Defensively, no team in the conference has given up a higher effective FG% from 2 and 3 point range. Coastal Carolina is #1 in the SBC in both categories and is also #1 in offensive rebounding. This is a big break for them getting ASU in the semis and they’ll take advantage. 8* Coastal Carolina |
|||||||
03-07-21 | Penn State v. Maryland -5.5 | Top | 66-61 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
10* Maryland (7:00 ET): The Terps suffered a terrible loss their last time out, They were beaten at Northwestern, 60-55 as 4.5-point chalk, a result that did their NCAA Tournament hopes no favors. Now they are still projected as a 9-seed, but were they to lose B2B games to Big 10 also-rans, that wouldn’t be good. This conference is filled with good teams, but N’western isn’t one of them and neither is Penn State, who comes calling to College Park Sunday evening. I expect Maryland to bounce back here. Penn State recorded a blowout victory in its last game, 84-65 against Minnesota, which was the Nittany Lions’ home finale. But wins have been few and far between for this team as it was just the second for PSU in the L7 games. The other came against last place Nebraska. Now the “elephant in the room” here is that the Nittany Lions did beat Maryland 55-50 back on Feb 5th. But since that time, the teams have trended in opposite directions. The 2-5 slide for PSU began right after while Maryland is 5-2 since. Maryland allowed N’western to score the game’s final six points Wednesday, which ended a five-game win streak. It was a dreadful shooting night the first time they faced Penn State, but I do not anticipate that happening again as the Terrapins score 74.3 PPG here at home where they generally shoot well. Penn State has the worst 2-pt FG% in the conference and typically relies on offensive rebounding to increase production. But Maryland is a solid defensive rebounding team. They shoot the three well and teams are making 54.2% of their 2PA against PSU in Big 10 play. The Nittany Lions are just 2-8 SU on the road and will not match their 3-pt shooting from the last game. 10* Maryland |
|||||||
03-07-21 | Granada v. Ath Bilbao -171 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 21 h 20 m | Show |
10* Athletic Bilbao (3:00 ET): I’ve been waiting for a matchup like this for awhile now. This is probably my favorite La Liga play since the Game of the Year winner with Barcelona (over Real Betis) last month. Reason being Athletic Bilbao is a much better side than Granada despite being lower in the table. That positioning creates a bit of line value here and I’m all on the home side Sunday. While currently 8th in the table, Granada has a -11 goal differential, which would put them in line with clubs closer to the bottom. Bilbao has a +6 YTD goal differential, better than the four teams directly above them and sixth best in all of La Liga. It’s already been a successful week for Bilbao as they’ve advanced to the final of the Copa del Rey, thanks to an added time goal against Levante on Wednesday. The fact it’ll be this club’s second year in a row in that particular final tells you what they are capable of. They also won the Spanish Super Cup earlier this season. The arrival of boss Marcelino has totally transformed their fortunes and now it’s time to move up in the Spanish top flight. A full three points here and they would leapfrog Granada into eighth place. They are unbeaten across their last seven in all competitions. Granada has conceded the most goals (42) in all of La Liga, so the fact they are currently 8th is a minor miracle. Having progressed into the Europa League Round of 16 (ousted Napoli) is a feather in the cap and they did beat Elche 2-1 last week in their return to domestic action. However, that win also snapped a six-game winless run here in La Liga, which includes losses to the likes of Huesca and Osasuna. They have not beaten a side in the top half of the table since December. Bilbao has triple revenge here and they lost the reverse fixture 2-0 in November. They’ll be motivated for the full three. 10* Athletic Bilbao |
|||||||
03-07-21 | Bologna v. Napoli -180 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 21 h 5 m | Show |
8* Napoli (2:45 ET): Napoli’s chances of finishing in the top four of Serie A took a hit midweek with an extraordinary 3-3 draw against Sassuolo. The sixth place Azzurri seemed ready to grab all three points when Lorenzo Insigne booted in the apparent game-winner in the 90th minute via penalty. However, a costly penalty was doled out against them in the fifth minute of injury time and Sassuolo responded with the equalizer. Keep in mind the score was only tied 2-2 due to an “own goal” that went against Napoli. All three goals conceded in the match were either via penalty or own goal. That’s tough. Napoli can be maddeningly inconsistent, but there is no doubt this side is worthy of Champions League qualification. They are currently five points back of that benchmark, though the gap could further widen depending on how Roma performs earlier on Sunday. But the Azzurri have the fourth best goal differential in all of Serie A (+24) and have four victories while keeping a clean sheet in the last eight fixtures. That’s they have three losses while conceding at least twice, during the same time frame, is where the inconsistency kicks in. Only Inter and Atalanta have scored more goals this campaign. Bologna was unbeaten in February, winning twice and drawing twice, but March got off to an awful start with a 1-0 loss to Caligari, who is fighting off relegation. The fact Bologna is still only 12th in the table should tell you all you need to know about them. They are actually only eight points clear of safety (relegation) and the truth is I don’t see them finishing in the top half. They have just two away victories all season and only Crotone and Fiorentina have a lower point percentage on the road. The reverse fixture was 1-0 Napoli back in November. 8* Napoli |
|||||||
03-06-21 | VMI v. Furman -7.5 | Top | 91-90 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 56 m | Show |
9* Furman (8:00 ET): Despite finishing third in the regular season, I think an argument can be made that Furman is the strongest team in the SoCon entering the Tournament. But before they can concentrate on the likes of UNC Greensboro and Wofford (the top two seeds), there’s a matter of revenge to take care of here in the quarter finals. They play VMI, who upset them back on January 11th. That 74-73 loss (as 11-pt favorites) did not specifically cost the Paladins a top two seed, but it definitely hurt. When you couple it with another 74-73 loss (to Wofford) last Saturday, you realize Furman was basically two points away from being the top seed in this tournament. VMI also happens to be off a one-point loss, 75-74 at The Citadel. But that was TWO Saturdays ago. They finished 6th in the conference, but there’s a pretty substantial dropoff after the top five. Now give credit where credit is due. The Keydets did beat Furman. But that was at home and it was a cold-shooting night for the Paladins. They made only 37% of their FG attempts while VMI sank 44% from three-point range. Despite those disparate numbers, it was still only a one-point game. The number here is several points shorter than it was when Furman travelled to face VMI. So I’m seeing some value right off the bat. Furman had won four in a row, all by nine points or more, before losing at Wofford last Saturday. Like I said earlier, I still consider them the favorites to win this tournament and I wouldn’t be surprised if they are favored in every game. I think the two-week layoff hurts VMI here. 9* Furman |
|||||||
03-06-21 | Kennedy Nzechukwu v. Carlos Ulberg OVER 1.5 | Top | 1-0 | Push | 0 | 26 h 26 m | Show |
8* Over Nzechukwu/Ulberg (7:40 ET): This is a fight, scheduled for three rounds, at Light Heavyweight (205 lbs). I am taking the Over 1.5 rounds. Kennedy Nzechukwu is 7-1 in his career, but only 1-1 in UFC as he lost his debut to Paul Craig back in 2019. But he bounced back in August of that year with a decision victory over Darko Stosic. Both of his UFC fights so far have made it to the third round and it will be interesting to see how he does here coming off such a long layoff. Carlo Ulberg is undefeated in his MMA career, but has only three fights under his belt and this is his official UFC debut. A byproduct of Dana White’s Contender Series, he won his opportunity by beating Bruno Oliveira in just 2:02 via 1st round KO back in November. It has certainly been a “strange” pro career for Mr. Ulberg as his first two fights came in 2011 and 2018. So this is easily the shortest amount of time between fights for him while it's the longest gap for Nzechukwu. Nzechukwu was not known as the most aggressive fighter prior to the layoff, so it will be interesting to see if that changes. My guess is that it won’t, especially with this being his first appearance inside the Octagon in over 18 months. He’ll have the size advantage here, but look for Ulberg to somewhat neutralize that with his array of leg kicks. This fight should definitely make it past the halfway point of Round 2 and I wouldn’t at all be surprised if it went to a decision. 8* Over Nzechukwu/Ulberg |
|||||||
03-06-21 | Seton Hall -1 v. St. John's | Top | 71-81 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
10* Seton Hall (7:00 ET): Twice I faded St. John’s last month and both times it ended up being a winning bet. The first time was against Butler (2/9) when the Red Storm entered in on an 8-game ATS win streak. They lost 76-73 as a 2.5-point underdog. That was close. But things were much more comfortable when I took DePaul +11.5 here in NYC on Feb 20th. The Blue Demons, who are having a terrible season, came in and upset the Johnnies 88-83. As I said in the analysis for both picks, this team has some real issues defensively. They are allowing 77.0 PPG for the season. Seton Hall is St. John’s opponent Saturday. This is an “old school” Big East rivalry and the Pirates have had the upper hand recently, winning the last three meetings. That includes 77-68 earlier this season. Now the Pirates come into this rematch with some “egg on their face” after dropping three in a row, all as favorites. They are 0-5 ATS the L5 games overall. But I view this as an excellent “buy low” opportunity and judging from the early line movement, so too do a lot of sharp bettors. Seton Hall has scored 60 points or less in four of its last five games. Those offensive woes should come to an end today. Prior to beating Providence Wednesday, St. John’s had allowed 76 or more points in five consecutive contests. There could also be a key absence here for the Red Storm as PG Posh Alexander (second leading scorer) is dealing with a thumb injury. According to Joe Lunardi, Seton Hall is currently the first team OUT on the NCAA Tournament bubble. That makes this a “must-win.” After falling apart in the 2H at home vs. UConn on Weds, motivation will be at an all-time high. St. John’s did beat Providence by 14 on Weds, but also trailed by as many as 11 early on. 10* Seton Hall |
|||||||
03-06-21 | Barcelona FC -182 v. Osasuna | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 22 h 27 m | Show |
7* Barcelona (3:00 ET): Barcelona continues its chase of Atletico Madrid in the La Liga standings as it travels to face bottom of the table Osasuna on Saturday. It was not that long ago that I considered Atletico’s stranglehold on 1st place to be impenetrable, but now the gap has been closed to just five points and Barca actually owns the superior YTD goal differential (+33 to +31). Osasuna can only dream of being in such a position as they are 30 points off the pace and a full 20 behind Champions League qualification. Now I will acknowledge the fact that Osasuna has taken nine points from their previous four La Liga matches to vault into 12th place. But there is a huge gap in this league between the top teams and everyone else and it wasn’t that long ago that Osasuna was staring down the possibility of relegation. Still only six points clear of safety, they are not “out of the woods” yet. They did defeat Alaves 1-0 last week, but have not beaten a top seven side all season. They lost 4-0 to Barca in the reverse fixture back in November. Meanwhile, Barca seems to be peaking right now with two recent wins over previously red hot Sevilla. It’s not just that they beat Sevilla twice, once in the Copa del Rey, it was that they did so by a combined score of 5-0! Unbeaten in three straight across all competitions, they’ve outscored their last three opponents 8-0. They are now La Liga’s highest scoring side (55 goals) and that’s big trouble for Osasuna, who has scored only 23 goals or an average of less than once per match. 7* Barcelona |
|||||||
03-06-21 | Indiana +7.5 v. Purdue | Top | 58-67 | Loss | -108 | 5 h 2 m | Show |
8* Indiana (2:00 ET): Already seeing their NCAA Tournament hopes dwindle, the Hoosiers could be without two starters today against #23 Purdue. They lost for a fourth straight time Tuesday, 64-58 at Michigan State and seemed to fade down the stretch. Race Thompson, who leads the team in FG%, exited with a facial injury and is questionable to play here. Second-leading scorer Armaan Franklin is almost certain to miss a third straight game due to a foot injury. But despite all the attrition, I expect IU to “show up” on Saturday. Take the points with what should be a VERY motivated underdog. While Indiana has been languishing, in-state rival Purdue has been surging. The Boilermakers have won four in a row with the latest victory coming against Wisconsin, 73-69 (as 2-pt favorites) on Tuesday. However, this feels like a golden opportunity to “sell high.” Much of Purdue’s recent success has come against teams in the bottom half of the Big 10 standings. With Indiana’s injury woes and the fact Purdue has won eight in a row in this rivalry, don’t be surprised if the favorite comes in overconfident. I don’t blame the injuries for IU’s loss Tuesday. The team shot 2 of 20 from three-point range and leading scorer Jackson-Davis (19.4 PPG) finished with only nine points. Still, the team lost by only six points. A lot of Purdue’s recent wins have been against Penn State, Minnesota, Northwestern and Nebraska. In an 8-3 SU stretch, those bottom four teams in the Big 10 account for six of the Boilermakers’ wins. The seniors on Indiana, having NEVER beaten Purdue, are gonna give everything they have here and I expect a close game Saturday afternoon. 8* Indiana |
|||||||
03-06-21 | Borussia Dortmund v. Bayern Munich -162 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 20 h 57 m | Show |
8* Bayern Munich (12:30 ET): Bayern Munich looks to remain atop the Bundesliga table Saturday as it renews acquaintances with rival Borussia Dortmund in Der Klassiker. While it’s certainly a surprise to see Bayern’s league lead at only two points, Dortmund’s position is obviously a lot more tenuous. With eight losses already to their name this season, they currently occupy the fifth spot in the table, three points back of Champions League qualification. Sixth place Leverkusen is also just two points behind them. Bayern has suffered a nasty habit of falling behind this season and a leaky defense hasn’t helped. But when I played them in the 1st leg of the Champions League Round of 16 (against Lazio), I said it was time they’d start to assert themselves and resemble the dominant side we are all used to seeing. Sure enough, they won 4-1. Then came a 5-1 demolition of FC Koln last week here in the German top flight. Thomas Muller and Serge Gnabry both returned to the pitch and made immediate dividends for a side that has 67 goals in 23 Bundesliga matches. That’s 19 more goals than anybody else (Dortmund is #2). Making matters worse for Dortmund today is the fact they’ll be without Jadon Sancho, Raphael Guerriero and Giovanni Reyna. Even at full strength, I did not like their chances here. Now it could very well get ugly in a hurry. Dortmund has won four straight across all competitions mind you, but their last two Bundesliga victories came against sides facing relegation. They have lost four straight in Der Klassiker including 3-2 earlier this season. When Bayern is at full strength, they are almost impossible to beat and they’ll be focused here. 8* Bayern Munich |
|||||||
03-06-21 | Arsenal -149 v. Burnley | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -149 | 15 h 57 m | Show |
8* Arsenal (7:30 AM ET): By their own admission, Arsenal may be nothing more than a “middle of the table team.” But they are certainly in better shape this Premier League season when compared to Saturday counterparts Burnley. The Clarets currently sit 15th in the table (with 29 points) and relegation is certainly NOT out of the question considering they’ve scored only 19 goals in 27 matches. The fewest goals ever scored by a non-relegated team in any EPL season is 28. So unless they pick up the pace or the defense holds, they could be in some trouble. Burnley did win the reverse fixture, 1-0 back in December. So the Gunners are out for revenge here. Certainly, they are in much better form now than they were two months ago. They carried a seven-match unbeaten streak in the EPL through January and are now coming off an impressive 3-1 victory over third place Leicester City last week. That’s in addition to progressing to the Round of 16 in the Europa League. A win here would make it three straight across all competitions and they’ve tasted defeat only three times since X-Mas! Burnley has not swept a season series from Arsenal since 1962-63, so history is definitely against them on Saturday. Recent form is not encouraging either. The Clarets are winless in their last four and while three of those were draws, they were hammered (4-0) in the one loss. They’ve already suffered 11 losses this Premier League season, only one shy of their record for a 38-match campaign and even worse is the fact they’ve failed to score 10 times. They’ve NEVER scored more than one goal in a EPL match against Arsenal. 8* Arsenal |
- Early Lines
- High Limits
- NEW VIP Rewards
- VIP Program
- Mobile Betting
- Crypto
- VIP Program
- Crypto
- Live & Mobile Betting!
- Crypto
- Live & Mobile Betting
- 48 Hour Payouts
- 35% Crypto Bonus
- Live Betting
- Mobile Friendly
Guaranteed Winners or your money back and Free Picks in the NFL football, NBA basketball, MLB baseball, NCAA college football and basketball, Nascar Racing, Arena Football nhl hockey leagues and more.
We are part of the internets Premier Sports Handicappers League with full documentation of all members on this sports betting news and info portal. Free Membership, Join Today and start Winning!
For any resources you could need like sports handicapping odds, handicapping stats, schedules, or handicappers free picks and tips please click on any of the links on the right hand side of this page.