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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-24-19 | Packers v. 49ers -3 | Top | 8-37 | Win | 100 | 79 h 39 m | Show |
10* San Francisco (8:20 ET): The 49ers have certainly looked vulnerable the L3 weeks, but here they are standing at 9-1 SU coming into SNF on NBC. Those L3 games were all against division rivals that traditionally give them trouble (Arizona & Seattle). Here they'll be hosting a Green Bay team that certainly appears stronger on paper (at least compared to the Cardinals), however, when you dig a little deeper, you discover the Packers aren't nearly as dominant as their 8-2 record would seem to indicate. They've been outgained on the year and most of their wins have been nailbiters. That the Pack are coming off a bye is irrelevant to me in this situation. Lay the short number. The 49ers were lucky to cover, let alone win last week against Arizona. They scored the game-winning TD w/ just 31 seconds left on the clock, then picked up a Cardinals fumble on the final play and ran that in for a TD to make it a 36-26 final. For some that fumble return changed the ATS result (my apologies if you were caught on the wrong end of that one). However, let's not totally writeoff what the Niners did, okay? They outgained the Cards 442-266 for the game and had a huge edge in yards per play (6.7 vs. 4.3). Though the defense has suddenly allowed an average of 26 PPG the L3 wks, it still ranks second in both yards and points allowed for the year. Green Bay's defense turned in one of its better efforts two weeks ago when I cashed the Under in their game vs. Carolina as my 10* Total of the Month. But they had to hold off the Panthers on the final play (inside the 10-yd line) to preserve the 24-16 victory. Something to keep an eye on here is the trenches as Green Bay can't run the ball at all on the road (82 YPG) while the Niners are averaging 159 YPG rushing at home. At home, the 49ers are +15.4 points and 152.6 yards per game. The Packers, despite being 3-1 on the road, are -123.5 YPG! This line indicates these teams are even on a neutral field, but that's simply not the case. 10* San Francisco |
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11-24-19 | Hurricanes -172 v. Red Wings | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
10* Carolina (7:05 ET): Two teams moving in vastly different directions meet tonight in the Motor City. Carolina, who won last night, has gone 5-1 in its last six games. Meanwhile, Detroit has lost five in a row, including last night’s 5-1 setback in New Jersey. The Hurricanes have already blown out the Red Wings once this year (7-3) and I see no reason why it won’t happen again on Sunday. The Canes have scored at least four goals in each of their last five wins. It was a 4-2 win over Florida last night. Considering they scored seven the last time they played the Red Wings, it should be another big night offensively here. This is one of the top scoring teams in the league for the season (3.5 goals per game) and they also get off plenty of shots on a per game basis. Detroit is giving up 3.8 goals per game as well, which is the worst average in the league. As if this matchup wasn’t already unfavorable enough for the Red Wings, they’ll also be playing without their leading scorer tonight. Anthony Mantha, who has 12 goals and 23 points, left the game in the first period last night. While the injury remains undisclosed at press time, it is known that Mantha is going to miss “at least a week.” Detroit gave up four goals in the third period of last night’s 5-1 loss, so their collective spirit probably couldn’t be any lower coming into this second game of a back to back. They already have the fewest points (17) and worst goal differential (-37) in the entire league. 10* Carolina |
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11-24-19 | Nets v. Knicks OVER 214.5 | Top | 103-101 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
10* Over Nets/Knicks (6:05 ET): Brooklyn isn’t exactly the safest bet in the NBA right now, but they have to be excited about the prospect of catching the Knicks in the second night of a back to back on Sunday. Here at MSG, the Knicks lost last night to the Spurs, 111-104 as 2.5-pt underdogs. That final score also just barely stayed Under the total. Speaking of going Under, that’s what the last five matchups between these teams have done. Not this one though. Take the Over. It was a much higher O/U line when these area rivals met on 10.25, the second game of the year for both teams. The Nets won that game 113-109, a final score that would mean an Over tonight. But the number was 229 last month. When looking at tonight’s O/U line, that’s quite a change. Kyrie Irving being out is probably the reason for the big decrease. But Brooklyn isn’t good defensively, especially on the road where they give up 118.7 PPG. The Knicks have an even lower defensive efficiency rating. The Nets have gone Under in each of their last three games. But even without Irving, they still managed to score 116 points two nights ago against the Kings. The Nets last two games were both at home and they turned in much better defensive efforts than we’re accustomed to seeing from them. My sense is they’ll regress defensively out on the road. The Nets are still playing at one of the five fastest tempos in the league. The Knicks let San Antonio shoot 53.3% overall last night and 52.2% from three-point range. 10* Over Nets/Knicks |
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11-24-19 | Panthers +10.5 v. Saints | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 71 h 20 m | Show |
8* Carolina (1:00 ET): Those in Carolina that were looking to make the case that Kyle Allen was a better option at QB than Cam Newton now have a little "egg on their face" after watching Allen regress mightily the last few weeks. I was always willing to concede that Allen is better than a banged up Newton. But the notion he was better than a healthy former league MVP was somewhat laughable. The Panthers now sit at 5-5 and are big dogs this week at New Orleans. This will easily be the most points they've been catching for any game this season. Despite what I just wrote about Allen, I'm willing to take the points here as I'm not nearly as high on New Orleans as the market is. The Saints crushed me last week by beating Tampa Bay 34-17. The Bucs were my Game of the the Year and I thought an outstanding play as a home dog. Unfortunately, they committed four turnovers - all of them as ill-timed as they were inexplicable. Total yardage in the game was basically even and the Bucs averaged more yards per play. Even w/ Drew Brees back, I still have some suspicions about a New Orleans team that has been fortunate to go 5-0 SU this season in one-score games. Four of those five wins were with Teddy Bridgewater at QB. But Brees was back when the Saints lost outright to the Falcons here at home two weeks ago, 26-9 as 14-pt chalk. Carolina found itself on the WRONG end of a +4 turnover margin last week against Atlanta. That and allowing a special teams TD spelled disaster for the Panthers in their own horrible home loss to the Falcons (29-3 as 4-pt chalk). But prior to last week, Carolina had suffered only one loss all year by more than eight points. New Orleans has failed to cover five of the last six times they've been a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points. An Atlanta pass rush that had previously been lackluster gave Brees and the Saints fits two weeks ago. The Panthers lead the league in sacks. As far as the Carolina offense, don't forget about Christian McCaffery, who leads the league in yards from scrimmage. 8* Carolina |
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11-24-19 | Bucs +4.5 v. Falcons | Top | 35-22 | Win | 100 | 71 h 20 m | Show |
10* Tampa Bay (1:00 ET): I'm not ready to give up on the Buccaneers just yet, even though SIX STRAIGHT ATS losses might seem to indicate that it's time to rethink things. I haven't been on all those losses, or even most of them for that matter. But I did have the Bucs last week as my Game of the Year and that was about as frustrating a watch as I can remember. This hard-luck team just can't seem to get out of its own way. Despite losing to the Saints 34-17 last week, TB actually finished with slightly more yards for the game and outgained New Orleans on a per play basis. But FOUR turnovers - all of them as ill-timed as they were inexplicable - proved to be their undoing. Now it's onto Atlanta where all of a sudden the Falcons seem to be pointed in the right direction. You may recall it was two weeks ago that I took the Dirty Birds plus the points in the Big Easy and the pulled off the shocker of the year, beating the Saints 26-9 as a 14-point dog. They then made it B2B division road wins as they slammed Carolina last week 29-3 (were +4.5). After producing all of seven in the first eight games (went 1-7), the Falcons' pass rush has exploded for 11 sacks these L2 games. But it's important to check the box score a little bit more. Atlanta was just the opposite of Tampa Bay last week in that they benefited from a +4 TO margin. The Falcons beating the Saints two weeks ago is was proof again that "anything can happen" in the NFL. So there's no reason to give up on the Bucs. They have a positive yardage differential for the season. On the injury front, the news is good w/ LB Carl Nassib set to return. Tampa Bay's defense is bad against the pass, but is #2 against the run w/ Nassib being their best stopper. Atlanta is going to be w/o RB Devonta Freeman and TE Austin Hooper this week. WR Julio Jones has also missed practice time. The L2 games aside, the Falcons have been far from a pointspread juggernaut themselves. They are 0-2 ATS as favorites this season, losing both games outright. Take the points. 10* Tampa Bay |
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11-24-19 | Seahawks v. Eagles | Top | 17-9 | Loss | -125 | 71 h 19 m | Show |
8* Philadelphia (1:00 ET): This was originally going to the Sunday Night Game, but was flexed out in favor of Packers-49ers (which I am also playing). This Seahawks-Eagles matchup happens to be the rare instance of the public loading up on the underdog. I suppose it's fairly easy to understand why. Seattle has covered seven straight times in the road underdog role and is a perfect 3-0 outright as a road dog this season. They are also 8-2 (Philly just 5-5) and coming off a bye. Before that bye week, they handed the 49ers their first loss of the season in an upset on MNF. But I still see some flaws w/ Russell Wilson and company. This team is extremely fortunate to have gone 7-1 SU this year in one score games. Their only win of 2019 that was by more than a touchdown came back in Week 4 at Arizona. Five of their wins have been by 4 pts or less. Their last two wins were both overtime games. On the year, they have a point differential of only +21. The Seahawks simply do not have the statistical profile of a team you'd expect to be 8-2. Down the stretch, I'm going to act accordingly and look to fade when appropriate. This is one of those times. Though Lane Johnson remains in the concussion protocol, the Eagles still should be getting more respect coming into this game. They hung tough w/ New England last week here at home, even jumping out to an early 10-0 lead. Really, it's a game they could have won. Though battling some injuries, I don't believe anything is truly "wrong" w/ the Eagles offense. The defense is allowing just 18.2 PPG at home. The last three games, the Eagles have allowed just 44 points total. 8* Philadelphia |
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