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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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08-31-17 | Titans +3 v. Chiefs | Top | 6-30 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Tennessee (#125) The coaches quotes tell us all we need to know for this ‘meaningless’ preseason finale. Titans head coach Mike Mularkey was not amused with Tennessee’s poor showing last week at home against the Bears. His quotes speak volumes about the intensity level we can expect from the road underdog tonight: “I think they’re frustrated. At least, I got that impression in the locker room afterward. We made too many mistakes, again, the Bears didn’t. We didn’t play well enough. They did. And in this league you can’t afford to do what we did against a good team that’s playing well.” Mularkey, talking about the Titans gameplan for tonight: “Everybody will play this game…..I don't know what the difference between the fourth game and the third game is. There's always that concern. You want to go in healthy to that opener, and right now we're pretty healthy. I have a veteran staff, I trust their opinions……Right now, this is what we did last year. We got some work done." It’s surely worth noting that last year the Titans won their Week 4 preseason game by double digits as underdogs on the road against a playoff team….. And the Titans are also taking the short turnaround between Sunday’s game and this road tilt very seriously as well. Linebacker Derrick Morgan: “It’s really a dress rehearsal for our Sunday game and our Thursday game, because it’s the same type of schedule, so it’s good for our guys to kind of get in that game week mentality with the season less than two weeks away, so we’re ready for that.” Contrast what Mularkey is talking about with this ‘laid back’ quote from Chiefs head coach Andy Reid: “We’ll go ahead and let Patrick start this week. Most likely, the twos will be taking that group along with him and then Tyler (Bray) will also play. I can’t tell you exactly how long I’m going to go with those guys and Joel (Stave) will get into the game also at the quarterback spot. And everybody else kind of follows that as we go.” Reid certainly doesn’t have a ‘bet-on’ track record for games like this one. The points here are a gift! Big Ticket: Take the Titans |
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08-31-17 | Rams v. Packers -3.5 | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 55 h 28 m | Show | |
Take Green Bay (#102) Here’s the quote from Rams first year, first time head coach Sean McVay, when asked why Jared Goff isn’t going to play at Green Bay this week: “We’ve made the decision that we were going to get a chance to evaluate the guys that we’re not projecting as starters and get them an opportunity to compete against Green Bay. That will offer an opportunity as well for our starters to kind of start getting in the mindset of preparing for that Indianapolis game.” That’s most assuredly a ‘bet-against’ quote, if I’ve ever seen one. Whenever a coach talks about evaluating depth, and pointing towards a game the following week, it’s a major red flag. Backup Sean Mannion threw 29 passes in relief of Goff last week – the Rams coaching staff has already seen what he can do. LA has ‘no-show’ written all over them this week. The Packers won’t be playing starters either, but both QB’s on the field on Thursday have an excellent track record here in August. Best of all, the two QB’s are locked in a real battle for the third string job – this is meaningful football for both of them. Both Taysom Hill and Joe Callahan have shown tremendous playmaking ability – Hill showing his dual threat capability and Callahan his improvisational skills. Two bet-on QB’s who can create are worth laying points with against a team primed for a no-show on Thursday Night. Take the Packers. |
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08-27-17 | 49ers v. Vikings UNDER 41.5 | 31-32 | Loss | -115 | 32 h 15 m | Show | |
Take Minnesota – San Francisco UNDER (#281-282) The Vikings first string offense hasn’t worked at all in the preseason. With Sam Bradford behind center, Minnesota has generated a grand total of one field goal in six possessions, picking up right where they left off last year. Minnesota’s rebuilt offensive line is struggling to open up holes in the running game, and Bradford isn’t exactly lighting up opposing defenders downfield. Behind Bradford, with Case Keenum safe as the #2 QB, we could see some Mitch Leidner at QB, a non-drafted rookie who was just signed off the waiver wire following Taylor Heinicke’s injury last week. The Vikings offense is not primed to put up points in bunches once again here, already 2-0 to the Under in preseason. The 49ers offense is a ‘work in progress’ to put it mildly. They generated a grand total of 12 first downs and seven offensive points last week, blasted at home by Denver. And this quote from veteran left tackle Joe Staley doesn’t exactly inspire much confidence in Kyle Shanahan’s brand new offense moving forwards: “I think one of the things that even I wasn’t expecting was how detailed you have to be in everything as far as the run game. Aiming points. Everyone’s got to be on the same page — running backs, linemen, receivers, everybody, for it to work.” And it’s surely worth noting that the 49ers QB play has not been pretty thusfar, not likely to get much better against a top tier Vikings defense. Take the Under. |
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08-26-17 | Cardinals +4 v. Falcons | 24-14 | Win | 100 | 7 h 6 m | Show | |
Take Arizona (#263) The defending NFC Champs are laying more than a field goal to Arizona in the Week 3 ‘Regular Season Walkthrough’ matchup tonight. But there’s a world of difference in how these two teams are approaching tonight’s game. Bruce Arians gameplanned for this contest after the Cardinals didn’t do that for their first two preseason games. He’ll be calling plays for the first time this preseason after the Cardinals ran completely ‘vanilla’ schemes in their first two preseason contests. QB Carson Palmer has emphasized the importance of tonight’s game with his teammates, expected to play the entire first half. Arizona’s QB depth behind him is rock solid, with Blaine Gabbert and Drew Stanton, both of whom have regular season starting experience. The coach-speak and player quotes coming out of Atlanta are very different. The concept? ‘We’ve got a lot of player depth to evaluate’. Atlanta is not going to play their starters as a cohesive unit for multiple series. Head coach Dan Quinn: “Our approach will be more on an individual basis – who we really want to try to feature. Sometimes you see that postgame when you see, boy that guy had a lot of plays in the game, that may have been a player we were really trying to find out about. … There’s a number of guys that we’re really trying to dig in on and find out what they can do. That’s as important to me as what they can’t do, because you have to find out both and what can they do and how can we feature them.” We could get an extended look at Falcons non-prospect Alek Torgersen at QB after halftime. And Quinn has a track record of sitting starters early in Week 3, not stretching them out into the second half. Don’t be shocked here if the Cardinals starters are on the field against the Falcons backups before halftime. And even if the Falcons go into the break with the lead, Arizona’s second half QB rotation is ‘bet-on’ all the way. Live dog here! Take the Cardinals. |
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08-25-17 | Chiefs +3.5 v. Seahawks | 13-26 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 38 m | Show | |
Take Kansas City (#257) Pete Carroll is legitimately a ‘bet-on’ coach in August, carrying a 31-14-1 ATS mark in preseason games. That includes a 2-0 mark already this year, beating the Chargers and Vikings by a combined margin of 68-30. So why the heck am I betting against Carroll on Friday Night? Lots of reasons! First, note that when any coach compiles a gaudy preseason track record, the betting markets are forced to adjust. Oddsmakers know full well that $$ would pour in on Seattle at -2.5 or -3, hence the 3.5 for this contest. Quite frankly, my number here is Seattle -1, a clear indicator of the types of adjustments books are forced to make because of the expected Seahawks $$. This line is a good notch or two too high. Secondly, Week 3 is different, the regular season walk-through. Andy Reid has taken this one week very seriously, dating back to his long tenure in Philly, where the Eagles covered Week 3 spreads year after year. The Chiefs won their Week 3 walkthrough 23-7 last year and they beat the Seahawks SU in Week 3 the previous season. Third, Andy Reid has announced that the KC starters will play for three full quarters on Friday Night and the second stringers will close out the game. That means none of the third or fourth string ‘scrubs’ that blew the Week 1 game against San Fran. Don’t be shocked to see KC starters facing off against Seattle backups at some point in this contest, or to see the Chiefs second stringers facing off against Seahawks who won’t make the roster. And fourth, KC is as healthy as they’ve been all August – this is a legit regular season walkthrough. The Chiefs first string offense has been clicking, notching three TD’s and a field goal in their first four drives of preseason. Seattle, on the other hand, just lost starting left tackle George Fant to a season ending injury; not a team that can afford any more hits to their offensive line. Live dog here! Take the Chiefs. |
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08-20-17 | Saints v. Chargers -3 | 13-7 | Loss | -105 | 56 h 4 m | Show | |
Take the Los Angeles Chargers (#430) To say that the Saints don’t care about winning in August is something of an understatement. Sean Payton’s last preseason win in New Orleans came in Week 3 of the 2014 season, 0-10 SU and ATS in August since that victory. Each of the last seven losses has come by six points or more – it’s not like New Orleans has been falling just short. The Saints didn’t do any gameplanning for San Diego, even for their joint practice sessions this week. Drew Brees: “We just kind of show up today for the first time and it’s like, OK, here’s their personnel and here’s the looks that we are getting. This is the stuff they have been working on in training camp that nobody has really seen yet.” And reports out of those practice sessions had New Orleans struggling in every aspect of the game. They had penalties, turnovers, pass protection issues and poor QB play throughout. Drew Brees was outplayed by Philip Rivers, which is no surprise – Rivers and the Chargers first string offense marched the ball down the field and into the end zone in their lone drive against the Seahawks first string defense last week. While the Saints don’t care, the Chargers do! Last week’s 31 point home loss was a downright embarrassment for a team with a first year, first time head coach, relocating to a new stadium in a new city without much of a fan base. Backup QB’s Kellen Clemons and Cardale Jones are both having solid camps, but that duo combined to go 6-19 with two interceptions against the Seahawks reserves last week. The Saints defensive backups are a long, long way from the Seahawks defensive backups. Let’s bet ON the team that actually wants to win! Take the Chargers. |
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08-19-17 | Panthers +3.5 v. Titans | 27-34 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 1 m | Show | |
Take Carolina (#409) The Titans have no business as favorites of more than a field goal in this ballgame, even without Cam Newton in the lineup for Carolina today. They’re not gameplanning in any real way against the Panthers. Head coach Mike Mularkey, when asked about gameplanning this week after doing none against the Jets: “A little bit more because it's a different front. You've got to have a plan for their defensive scheme. Not like we're going to game-plan like when we get going, no.” The Titans are not built to put up points in bunches once their starters leave the game. Their offensive line depth is clearly limited, as backup QB’s Alex Tanney and Tyler Ferguson combined to take seven sacks against the Jets last week. Matt Cassell is expected to get some playing time today, but I’m not expecting an A level effort from Cassell in his first game appearance since offseason thumb surgery on his throwing hand. Ron Rivera was not amused after the joint practice session with the Titans on Thursday. An offense that had been wowing observers in training camp flat out stunk. Rivera, upping the intensity for his squad: “Today there were some things that were terrible that we looked at and are most certainly going to work on and get corrected,” he said bluntly. “Because we can’t have this. We expect to win football games. We can’t do the things we did today.” And, as we saw very clearly last week in their win over the Texans, Carolina has a ‘bet-on’ QB rotation for August, even without Newton. Once starter Derek Anderson sits, the Joe Webb/Garrett Gilbert combo has proven very effective in August. The Panthers beat the Titans by double digits in their Week 2 preseason matchup last year and I wouldn’t be shocked in the slightest if they win this game in SU fashion by a comfortable margin either. Let’s not forget that Carolina hasn’t lost a preseason game by more than a field goal in a non-Week 3 game (regular season walkthroughs) since 2013! Take the Panthers. |
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08-17-17 | Bucs v. Jaguars | 12-8 | Win | 100 | 34 h 51 m | Show | |
Take Tampa Bay (#405) Three key factors are in play for this game. First and foremost, the Bucs want to get extended playing time from their starters in this ballgame. I’ve heard no similar sentiments expressed from the Jacksonville side. Bucs head coach Dirk Koetter: “We’ll play more, the ones will be closer to a full half. We went a little bit longer with the offense last game, the defense didn’t play much. We’ll take those guys (deeper into the game). I’d like Jameis (Winston), if we have the ball, to get into a two minute situation at the end of the second quarter.” Secondly, the Jags are not comfortable running their new offense just yet. Blake Bortles has struggled in training camp and was a non-factor last week, completing only three passes for 16 yards. Bortles: “It still is our first camp in the system with Coach Nate Hackett and I think guys have done a good job – definitely still a lot to improve on. We’ve shown day-in and day-out how good we can be and then we’ve shown day-in and day-out how stupid some of the stuff we do is.” Jacksonville scored TD’s on a 97-yard pass a 79-yard run and 42-yard pass against the Pats; the type of big play TD’s that don’t come every week. Third, the Bucs are likely to have a significant QB edge after halftime, when pointspread results are most likely to be determined. Third string QB Ryan Griffin is hurt. ‘Never has been & never will be’ undrafted rookie free agent QB Sefo Liufau got second half playing time last week. That means we can expect a heavy dose of Ryan Fitzpatrick against the Bucs backup defenders. Fitzpatrick struggled against the Pats last week, primed for a better effort here; the type of veteran QB we want our money ON in August. Meanwhile, I’m not sold on Jags rookie sixth round pick Brandon Allen lighting up the Tampa defense. Take the Bucs |
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08-13-17 | Lions v. Colts UNDER 36 | 24-10 | Win | 100 | 3 h 31 m | Show | |
Take Detroit – Indianapolis UNDER (#279-280) The Lions and Colts played a memorable 39-35 shootout last year in Week 1 of the regular season, with Matthew Stafford and Andrew Luck trading touchdowns throughout. Expect this game to be pretty much the exact opposite of last year’s regular season meeting! We’re not going to see Luck today and Stafford is unlikely to play more than one drive. Detroit is expected to give Jake Rudock first half playing time, while rookie Brad Kaaya should get the majority of snaps behind center after halftime. The Lions have suffered cluster injuries at offensive tackle, leaving their passing game very much in question today. Right now, Detroit has only four healthy tackles. They certainly won’t risk starter Greg Robinson on the field for long today. That leaves backup Cyrus Kouandjio, undrafted rookie Storm Norton and recently signed Nick Becton as the only healthy tackles on the roster. It’s surely worth noting that reports out of joint practice sessions this week had the Lions second string OL “struggle(ing) mightily to contain the Colts’ average pass rushers, both in team and individual drills.” I’m not expecting Detroit’s offense to be marching up and down the field today, nor do I expect their red zone execution to produce touchdowns instead of field goals. And it’s also surely worth noting that Indy’s offseason top priority was all about improving their defensive depth – their second and third string defense should be significantly improved compared to what we’ve seen in recent preseasons. Indy isn’t primed to light up the scoreboard either. Scott Tolzien will get the start today. Here’s the quote from Zak Keefer’s report from the Indy Star: “The Colts’ offense struggled to move the ball against the Lions on Thursday and Friday, and Tolzien’s only attempts deep were easily broken up.“ Behind Tolzien is Stephen Morris and Philip Walker. Morris has been bouncing around training camps for the last four years without much success, Walker is a 5-11 undrafted rookie free agent, looking at his first real playing time against an NFL defense today. Expect big plays and long drives to be few and far between in this one! Take the Under.. |
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08-12-17 | Cowboys v. Rams +3 | 10-13 | Win | 100 | 10 h 48 m | Show | |
Take the LA Rams (#276) To say that Dallas head coach Jason Garrett doesn’t care about winning games in the NFL Preseason is something of an understatement. The Cowboys won one preseason game in four tries last year. They went 0-4 SU and ATS in their four preseason games in 2015. They went 0-4 SU in 2014, covering one spread as a six point underdog. In 2013, the Cowboys won the Hall of Fame Game – just like they did last week, then proceeded to lose SU as favorites in Week 1, winning only once in their four ‘regular’ preseason games. Laying points with Dallas in August, regardless of the opposing team’s circumstances, has been a consistent money losing proposition. So what’s different in 2017? NOTHING! Dak Prescott is likely to get a series or two’s worth of action tonight, but he’ll be playing behind a banged up offensive line that is missing three starters from last year’s elite unit. Kellen Moore played the whole first half last week. That means we’re likely to see plenty of undrafted rookie free agent Cooper Rush out of Central Michigan and recently signed Luke McCown, who is less than two weeks into learning the playbook. I do NOT expect this Cowboys offense to march up and down the field. Rams starter Jared Goff has a lot to prove after a dismal rookie season. LA’s backup QB Sean Mannion is a proven preseason performer, ‘bet-on’ all the way in August. Third stringer Dan Orlovsky is a 12 year veteran with a full offseason to learn the playbook; a capable signal caller for the latter stages. The Rams have a first year, first time head coach in his home debut – a long term ‘positive expectation’ subset. And let’s not forget that the +3 captures all the true ‘key’ numbers from preseason where games are routinely decided by one or two points as teams look to avoid overtime Live dog here! Take the Rams. |
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