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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-04-18 | Eagles v. Patriots -4 | 41-33 | Loss | -107 | 99 h 40 m | Show | |
Take New England (#102) I have no strong opinion on the total for the Super Bowl. I do, however, have an opinion on the side; betting on the Patriots in a game I expect them to win. There is a case to be made for Philadelphia. Super Bowl Favorites have not done well, covering only four pointspreads in the last 16 Super Bowls, one of which came in OT. Philly has the better statistical defense and they certainly don’t have an overall talent deficit against New England. And chalk has NOT been the way to go in any previous New England Super Bowl in the modern era, with the dog going 6-0 ATS in regulation in Patriots Super Bowls (their win over the Seahawks came priced at pick ‘em). I can understand the case for Philly, but I don’t agree with it. The case for New England is a good notch or two stronger! Let me start with this. The most public team in the NFL – the defending Super Bowl champs, the dynasty team – has been consistently UNDER-valued in the betting marketplace. Since the start of the 2016 campaign, the Pats are a ridiculous 28-9 ATS, cashing one winning bet after the next. How good has Belichick been from a pointspread perspective? How about this doozy --- ZERO losing ATS seasons over the last ten years, despite the fact that they’ve been a ‘public’ team the entire time! How does this happen & why is the ‘sharp’ money fading New England week after week? Simple – the wiseguys are fixated with statistics, and the Patriots statistics aren’t elite. New England gives up yardage in bunches on defense – they’ve done it all year long. Philly has the superior defensive stats, for sure. But New England’s defensive stats don’t tell the true story. Their elite special teams force teams onto long fields, allowing them to gain extra yardage on drive after drive. Their red zone defense is top notch, holding teams to field goal tries. And, frankly, the Pats defensive stats have been lying since October – they were awful for the first four games of the season, numbers that still have a significant impact on their overall stats here in FEBRUARY! That’s not the only pro-Patriots piece of the equation. We’ve got the classic Super Bowl ‘value’ situation, with one team coming in off a near perfect game while the other is coming in off a non-covering struggle. Teams off a blowout vs. teams off a non-cover is a simple handicap – the betting public remembers what they just saw, leaving value on the other side. And that betting public also remembers favorites in previous Patriots Super Bowls going 0-6 ATS in regulation (the Seahawks Super Bowl was a pick ‘em). Strength of schedule matters too. My numbers are very clear on this one. Based on MY power rating numbers the week of the game (not end of the season cumulative numbers), the Eagles faced the single weakest schedule of any playoff team; getting the right team at the right time over and over again. New England in the Super Bowl cannot be considered the ‘right team at the right time’….. Nick Foles couldn’t move the football against the Raiders, Cowboys or Falcons, as the Eagles scored a grand total of 34 points in their three games prior to the NFC Championship. Then against the Vikings, Foles had a near perfect game. I’m expecting ‘regular’ Foles in a game of this magnitude away from home, not ‘best QB in the NFL’ Foles like we saw against Minnesota. Last, but not least, experience matters. The Super Bowl is a unique animal – endless hype and distractions leading up to the game, a truly endless pregame that leaves players without adrenaline by kickoff, and a halftime show so long that Bill Belichick had his team sit for 40 minutes in practice this week just to get the feel for how long it was! A team that played in the big game last year has a legitimate edge against a team that didn’t. When we’re talking about seven previous Super Bowl trips for the Pats in the modern era compared to seven combined trips to the Super Bowl for the entirety of the Eagles roster, that matters. Potentially, it matters a lot! Pats by a TD or more. Take New England. |
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01-14-18 | Jaguars v. Steelers -7 | Top | 45-42 | Loss | -112 | 97 h 43 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Pittsburgh (#306) Here a link to the 18-0 angle: http://killersports.com/nfl/query?sdql=tpS%28W%40playoffs%3D0%29%3C%3D4+and+playoffs%3D1+and+WP%3E50+&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++ The concept is simple and extraordinarily profitable – we’re betting against the upstarts; playoff teams off big single season improvements (4 wins or more) from last year. Those teams have been ATS disaster areas in the postseason, like the Cowboys last year and the Redskins in 2016, just to name the last two from recent seasons. And, of course, my clients and I cashed a winner betting against these same Jaguars last week using this same angle, despite the fact that the Bills made numerous crucial mistakes and didn’t move the football at all. Here’s an excerpt from last week’s write-up, loaded with anti-Jacksonville fodder. “Based on my power rating numbers for the week the games were played, the Jaguars played the single weakest schedule of any playoff team this year. That’s bad news when it comes to playoff time. This bet comes down to one additional factor for me: Blake Bortles. “The Jags had seven blowout wins this year by 16 points or more. Playing with a lead, Bortles was just fine: a 12-1 TD/INT ratio and a passer rating of 107.5. But in the other nine games – games where Bortles was asked to make plays for the Jags to win, his numbers were downright ugly: a 9-12 TD-INT ratio and a passer rating of 73.8 (Trevor Siemian territory). “This stat might be the best of the bunch. Blake Bortles led 26 drives this season in the fourth quarter or OT of one possession games (not counting a kneel down vs. Seattle or a last play Hail Mary INT vs. Tennessee). In those 26 possessions, Bortles produced a grand total of one touchdown, on a 38 yard drive against Arizona.” Blake Bortles is NOT a QB I can trust in a hostile road environment against a strong, playoff tested foe. The Jags were at home against the Bills last week and netted just 75 yards on Blake Bortles 25 drop-backs, not counting scrambles. In fact, on all plays OTHER than Bortles scrambles at home against the Bills, Jacksonville averaged just 2.8 yards per snap. Those are most assuredly NOT confidence inducing numbers. And make no mistake about it – the Steelers still remember the Jags coming into Heinz Field earlier in the season, intercepting five Ben Roethlisberger passes (two of them pick sixes) in a three touchdown win for the road team; the low point of the season for Pittsburgh. Defensive end Stephon Tuitt: “You know how we turn it up in the playoff games. The intensity level rises. People are more focused on the task at hand.” And Mike Tomlin knows what’s coming, the type of game where Pittsburgh’s gameplan is very clear: “They have as clearly a defined a mode of operation as anyone in this (playoff) field in terms of how they play. They run the ball. They control the clock. They have corresponding play action passes. They play formidable defense. They create turnovers. And that's how games unfold for them.” Pittsburgh’s offense wasn’t healthy or in rhythm when these teams met in October. This time around, they’re pretty darn health. Antonio Brown looks good to go off a full practice participation on Tuesday. JuJu Smith Shuster is coming off a nine catch, 143 yard performance in the season finale. Martavis Bryant, too, is in stellar current form, and Le’Veon Bell is fully healthy off two weeks sitting. The Jags defense ruled the day in the first meeting, but I expect the rematch to be very, very different. Big Ticket: Take the Steelers. |
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01-13-18 | Falcons v. Eagles +3 | 10-15 | Win | 100 | 76 h 4 m | Show | |
Take Philadelphia (#302) There’s a reason that we haven’t seen the #1 seed as a Divisional Round home underdog EVER in the HISTORY of the NFL Playoffs. And to see Atlanta laying a full -3 here is a pointspread that is out of whack with my current numbers. Let’s start with two basic facts: The Falcons aren’t as good this year compared to last year AND this Falcons team is anything BUT fresh heading into this matchup. Last year, Kyle Shanahan’s offense ranked #1 in the NFL in virtually every meaningful category. With basically the same personnel back this season, under Steve Sarkisian’s tutelage, the Falcons declined by 187 points scored this season – more than 12 points per game less than last year. Their yards per play dropped from 6.7 to 5.8. Last week, they converted on only one of eight tries at 3rd and 6 or longer, but a litany of Rams special teams mistakes early left Atlanta in ‘play with the lead’ territory. This week, I’m not so sure they’ll ever have a lead to play with! And the Falcons are anything but ‘rested and ready’ here off their West Coast game last week. Over the last three weeks, the Falcons have been in ‘playoff intensity’ mode every time – a short week off a Monday Night game at New Orleans, then Carolina at home, then their playoff opener last week in LA against the Rams. The Eagles over that same cycle? Home games vs. the Raiders and Cowboys (with many starters sitting against Dallas), then a bye week. Clearly, we should expect the home underdog will be better physically and mentally prepared. Nick Foles lit up the Rams after Carson Wentz got hurt; then threw four TD passes against the Giants the following week. But his last two starts were both downright ugly. But Foles grew up in Texas and went to school at Arizona – he did not fare well in the frigid conditions in Philly for their games against the Raiders and Cowboys to close out the regular season. But the weather forecast for Saturday’s game has temperatures above 40 degrees; MUCH warmer than it’s been in any recent Eagles home game. I’ll call it ‘Foles’ weather, especially with Philly facing off against a dome team. Last, but not least, let’s remember to give the Eagles defense proper credit. Jim Schwartz’s stop unit ranked in the top quartile of the NFL against both the run and the pass, based on Football Outsiders advanced metric stats. Those aren’t the type of defensive numbers that merit Philly as a home dog for this matchup – even with Foles behind center, Philly is the better of these two teams! Take the Eagles. |
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01-07-18 | Bills +9 v. Jaguars | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 75 h 48 m | Show | |
Take Buffalo (#105) Here a link to the angle: http://killersports.com/nfl/query?sdql=tpS%28W%40playoffs%3D0%29%3C%3D4+and+playoffs%3D1+and+WP%3E50+&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++ The concept is simple and extraordinarily profitable – we’re betting against the upstarts; playoff teams off big single season improvements (4 wins or more) from last year. Those teams have been ATS disaster areas in the postseason, like the Cowboys last year and the Redskins in 2016, just to name the last two. That’s not the only angle in play to support the road dog in this matchup. There’s one more that stands out like a sore thumb; an angle that is 41-18-1 ATS in the Wild Card Round of the playoffs dating back to 2002, counting every game, every year! That angle is simple: take the team that faced the tougher schedule in the regular season, regardless of venue or pointspread. In this instance, it’s not even close. The Jaguars played the single weakest schedule of any playoff team this year. Buffalo faced the second hardest schedule (according to my numbers, tied with Carolina) based on my power rating number for their opponents on the week each game was played. This bet comes down to one additional factor for me: Blake Bortles. I understand that Buffalo is a flawed football team. I also understand that Blake Bortles has no business laying more than a touchdown in a playoff game! The Jags had seven blowout wins this year by 16 points or more. Playing with a lead, Bortles was just fine: a 12-1 TD/INT ratio and a passer rating of 107.5. But in the other nine games – games where Bortles was asked to make plays for the Jags to win, his numbers were downright ugly: a 9-12 TD-INT ratio and a passer rating of 73.8 (Trevor Siemian territory). This stat might be the best of the bunch. Blake Bortles led 26 drives this season in the fourth quarter or OT of one possession games (not counting a kneel down vs. Seattle or a last play Hail Mary INT vs. Tennessee). In those 26 possessions, Bortles produced a grand total of one touchdown, on a 38 yard drive against Arizona. This is NOT a QB I can trust in this pointspread range against a playoff opponent, period. Buffalo is flawed, and RB LeSean McCoy is banged up – hence the pointspread of more than a TD. But the Bills have won four of their last six overall – the only two losses coming against the Patriots – they’ve EARNED this playoff spot. The Bills have shown plenty of mettle on the highway, including SU wins as an underdog at Atlanta and Kansas City, as well as a wire-2-wire cover at Carolina. In their first playoff game of the 21st century, don’t expect the Bills to go down without a fight. Take the Bills. |
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01-06-18 | Falcons +6.5 v. Rams | 26-13 | Win | 100 | 58 h 48 m | Show | |
Take Atlanta (#103) Here a link to the angle: http://killersports.com/nfl/query?sdql=tpS%28W%40playoffs%3D0%29%3C%3D4+and+playoffs%3D1+and+WP%3E50+&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++ The concept is simple and extraordinarily profitable – we’re betting against the upstarts; playoff teams off big single season improvements (4 wins or more) from last year. Those teams have been ATS disaster areas in the postseason, like the Cowboys last year and the Redskins in 2016, just to name the last two. That’s not the only angle in play to support the road dog in this matchup. There’s one more that stands out like a sore thumb; an angle that is 41-18-1 ATS in the Wild Card Round of the playoffs dating back to 2002, counting every game, every year! That angle is simple: take the team that faced the tougher schedule in the regular season, regardless of venue or pointspread. In this instance, it’s not even close. My numbers show Atlanta as having faced the single toughest slate of opponents of any postseason team. LA? Not so much! I understand that Wade Phillips is an elite defensive coordinator, while Steve Sarkisian has had issues as a playcaller for the Falcons this season. But I also know that the Rams have zero playoff experience – Sean McVay hasn’t won a playoff game even as an assistant, neither has Jared Goff, Todd Gurley or any of LA’s skill position talent. The Falcons went to the Super Bowl last year and return the corps of that roster – proven moneymakers when the stakes rise in January. Dan Quinn in the playoffs (not counting neutral site Super Bowls) has gone 6-0 SU as the head coach or defensive coordinator. The Falcons have faced the Panthers twice, the Saints twice, Seattle, Dallas, New England and Minnesota over the course of their final 11 games, truly battle tested. They’ve gone 6-2 SU and ATS down the stretch, moneymakers! And it’s surely worth noting that this team almost never loses contact, suffering only one loss in the last two seasons by more than ten points (at New England). LA might win this, but don’t expect it to come easy. Take the Falcons. |
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12-31-17 | Panthers +4 v. Falcons | 10-22 | Loss | -110 | 75 h 11 m | Show | |
Take Carolina (#307). This is what matters here. The Panthers will go into this game live for the NFC South title and a #2 seed. If they lose, they could fall as low as #5 and be on the road next week, instead of enjoying a bye. Even if the Saints get off to a big lead at Tampa, expect Ron Rivera to keep his starters in the game, because a win would mean a home game next week while a loss could send them on the road. Carolina gets back a pair of key defenders from suspension here, LB Thomas Davis and DE Charles Johnson. For a team that is 7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS in their last eight games, the return of those two defenders adds a bit of swagger to this stop unit, especially considering that both guys are Georgia graduates, heading home. This defense has forced 17 turnovers during that eight game span, and they’re coming off a seven sack effort against Tampa Bay last week. But more than any other factor, this is a bet AGAINST the Falcons in a ‘must win’ game. Atlanta has a grand total of three wins by more than a field goal since September. They beat the 5-10 Jets by five points. They beat Dallas when the Cowboys were completely falling apart in the first game of Ezekiel Elliott’s suspension. And they beat the 4-11 Bucs in a ‘Ryan Fitzpatrick’ game for Tampa. That’s not exactly a track record of beating good teams by margin! Steve Sarkisian is no Kyle Shanahan when it comes to designing an offense or calling plays. Atlanta’s scoring output is a shell of what it was under Shanahan — they’ve scored just 9, 20, 24 and 13 points in their last four games, down nearly two TD’s per game compared to last year. Must win or not, the Falcons are laying more than a field goal to a team that’s better than them, a clear ‘bet-against’ situation for this false favorite. Take the Panthers. |
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12-31-17 | Jaguars +3.5 v. Titans | Top | 10-15 | Loss | -125 | 75 h 12 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Jacksonville (#311) Let me start with this basic premise, a premise that has been thoroughly validated by the first 16 weeks of the NFL season: At full strength, the Jaguars are a better team than the Titans. And while Tennessee beat Jacksonville by three touchdowns back in Week 2, the Jags team they faced then is a very different team at this stage of the campaign. That makes this quote from Doug Marrone stand out: “Make no mistake about it so there’s not a lot of talk about it during the week: We’re going to play to win and we’re going to do everything possible to win this game, period. I’m not even thinking about what happens beyond that. That’s the way we’re going to go about our business this week.” The Jags were no-shows in San Fran last Sunday, a rarity for a team that has stepped up rather well this season. It’s surely worth noting that they’ve gone 4-0 SU and ATS off their four previous losses this season, winning each and every one of those games by 20 points or more and covering every spread by a double digit margin. Two of those four wins came as underdogs, a third came as a short favorite. Now that, folks, is a track record worthy of support! Tennessee is anything BUT a confident team at this stage of the campaign. They’ve lost three straight ‘must win’ games, including a home game against the Rams last week, falling apart with the outcome very much in doubt when it mattered most — the fourth quarter. Incredibly, the Titans last win and cover against a competitive foe (not counting the bottom feeders) came back in Week 3 against the Seahawks. Mike Mularkey certainly doesn’t inspire much confidence for this bettor in a ‘must win’ game as chalk against a focused foe that is the superior squad. Big Ticket: Take the Jaguars. |
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12-31-17 | Texans v. Colts -3.5 | 13-22 | Win | 100 | 72 h 1 m | Show | |
Take Indianapolis (#316). The premise here is simple. You can stick a fork in the Houston Texans because they are done. They’ve lost each of their last five games by a touchdown or more, the last four defeats all coming by double digit margins. Each of the last two losses has been completely non-competitive: 45-7 to Jacksonville and 34-6 to Pittsburgh. I recognize that Indy isn’t Jacksonville or Pittsburgh. I also recognize when a team has thrown in the towel….. Houston has simply had too many injuries. Deshaun Watson was a spark, but he suffered a season ender. So did JJ Watt and Whitney Mercilus and D’Onta Foreman and CJ Fiedorowicz and Ryan Griffin. WR Will Fuller has a cracked rib and hasn’t had more than 50 receiving yards in a game since October. DeAndre Hopkins — the team’s only legit threat — hasn’t practiced all week and is likely to miss the first game of his five year NFL career on Sunday. A meaningless season finale on the highway is most assuredly not a ‘step-up’ spot for this sorry squad at the tail end of a dismal campaign. We saw last week what a popular coach can do for team morale in what is likely to be his last home game when the ‘dead’ Bengals came up strong and knocked the Lions out of playoff contention. Reading between the lines of the quotes coming out of Indy this week, I’m expecting a ‘step-up’ effort for Chuck Pagano in Week 17. Unlike the Texans, the Colts have shown plenty of fight down the stretch in competitive losses like the one they suffered last week at Baltimore. Pagano: "Last rodeo. It's our last ride together. ... What better way than to go out with a win?” I expect Indy to get that victory in relatively easy fashion, a game that has legitimate blowout potential despite the Colts season long struggles. Take the Colts. |
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12-25-17 | Raiders v. Eagles -9 | 10-19 | Push | 0 | 83 h 5 m | Show | |
Take Philadelphia (#132) We’ve got a clear ‘bet-on’ team vs. an equally clear ‘bet-against’ squad on Monday Night Football this week. Philly was sloppy last week against the Giants, to put it mildly, allowing a bottom tier Giants offense to gain more than 500 yards and four TD’s against them. Head coach Doug Pederson was not amused. “Can’t play like this and win in the postseason. Got to come prepared. And when I say prepared, I think from a mental standpoint, that emotion, that sense of urgency, that dominating swagger that you want to see your team come out aggressing with.” Veteran safety Malcolm Jenkins was not amused either: “I think each one of us needs to take a look a hard look at ourselves and be critical and evaluate where we can be better, whether that’s knowing the opponent better or knowing the scheme better. We’re going to need everybody to execute. It’s a race to get better right now.” How about veteran LB Nigel Bradham: “We don’t need nobody to tell us we’ve got to do better. We see it just like everybody else. One thing about us is we’ve all got chips on our shoulders. We want to get better. We’re going to challenge ourselves. We’ll get that corrected.” Given those quotes, and given the fact that a win here will clinch the #1 seed for the Eagles, I’m anticipating an elite team bringing their ‘A’ game on Christmas Night. The Raiders cannot be expected to match that level of play after their season essentially ended with Derek Carr’s goal line fumble last Sunday Night. Oakland won’t have left tackle Donald Penn, ending his streak of 170 consecutive starts for the Raiders. The defensive line will be playing without Mario Edwards Jr and Treyvon Hester. Starting receivers Michael Crabtree (concussion) and Amari Cooper (ankle) are questionable at best, neither likely to be at 100% if they suit up. We’ve seen the Raiders let go of the rope repeatedly on the highway this season, losing by 17 at Washington, by 20 at Buffalo, by 25 vs. New England in Mexico City and by 11 (they trailed 26-0 in that game) at KC. No surprise here if the energy to fight from behind is rather limited for this disappointing squad. There’s some chance that the Packers beat the Vikings on Saturday Night as nine point underdogs, clinching the #1 seed for the Eagles before kickoff. This quote from Doug Pederson leaves me confident that Philly will come to play anyway, saving the ‘resting starters’ thing for Week 17:”You’ve got to maintain that confidence and that dominating swagger and you’ve got to keep that alive.” Take the Eagles. |
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12-24-17 | Jaguars v. 49ers +4.5 | 33-44 | Win | 100 | 55 h 41 m | Show | |
Take San Francisco (#124) I could put ten quotes in this spot, but I’m only going to use three. But make no mistake about it – from a mental standpoint, the 49ers have been completely transformed with Jimmy Garappolo behind center. WR Marquise Goodwin: “Just look at him. Look at him. You know what I’m saying? He’s got it together. He came in a short time and has just helped us flip this around. Some people are just winners, and he’s a winner. He’s just a confident guy. When you play with confidence like that, you feel unstoppable.” Guard Brandon Fusco: “It’s a special feeling with him. He’s a special player. That’s the reason we did what we did to get him. You can definitely feel it. We’re all excited. There’s more to come from this.” Wide receiver Trent Taylor: “Having chemistry with your quarterback is a big deal. Just to understand timing and for him to understand where you're going to be and when and if you're going to break away from the defender or not. I think me and Jimmy have done good on that so far and he's done great with the rest of the receivers as well. Hopefully we can continue that." San Francisco is still priced in the betting markets like a team that has gone 5-24 SU in their last 29 games, especially when they’re matched up with a ‘Flavor of the Week’ like the Jaguars. But the Niners have won three straight since Garappolo took over behind center, rallying from behind in the fourth quarter TWICE last week to beat a winning team trying to clinch a playoff spot. And the Jags are as ‘fat and happy’ as it gets at this time of the year after clinching their first playoff appearance since 2007. Blake Bortles is not the better QB in this game the way he was last week against the Texans…. Take the 49ers. |
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12-24-17 | Rams v. Titans +7 | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 52 h 36 m | Show | |
Take Tennessee (#110) I believe the Rams are better than the Titans, and deserve to be road favorites. But this line has gone through the roof and from all indications, Tennessee is coming to play on Sunday. All the value here – and there is legitimate value at the current pointspread – lies with the home underdog. I’m not going to write a bunch of negative things about LA here – this is a solid football team that has been winning games and covering pointspreads on the highway all season. That’s certainly factored into this pointspread! But now we’re talking about a very young West Coast team flying East for an early start game right before Christmas, coming off arguably their biggest win of the decade at Seattle last week. The final score against the Seahawks is a big reason why this pointspread is where it is – last week’s lookahead line was LA -3. And frankly, that result was as much about the Seattle no-show as anything LA did right. All 40 of LA’s offensive points came from drives that started in Seahawks territory. Jared Goff only generated 104 net passing yards on 22 dropbacks. Those are not ‘lay a TD on the road against a feisty foe’ type of stats, every bit as dicey as the spot for Sean McVay’s squad. Even after suffering tough losses to the 6-8 Cardinals and the 4-10 49ers over the last two weeks, the Titans can clinch a playoff spot with a win here, currently the #5 seed in the AFC. There’s certainly a level of hunger here. Pro Bowl DT Jurrell Casey: “To lose to two sorry teams like that back-to-back, I’m at a loss for words.” Marcus Mariota: “We left Nashville in first place in our division. It's not a very good feeling." Tennessee did find a spark last week with their no-huddle offense, rallying back from a 16-3 deficit at San Fran, then driving to kick what could have been the game winning FG with just over a minute left. This team hasn’t lost at home since opening day, notching five straight wins on this field. Too many points! Take the Titans. |
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12-24-17 | Dolphins +10.5 v. Chiefs | 13-29 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 36 m | Show | |
Take Miami (#119) Here’s all you need to know about Miami’s mentality as they travel to Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday. Head coach Adam Gase: “We’re still in this season. This thing’s not quite over yet…. We’ve got two games to make some strides here. Win this one and go from there and see what happens.” The Dolphins have won two of their last three, including an impressive victory over the defending Super Bowl champs. But last week in Buffalo they fell behind early on a short week in a flat spot, and couldn’t rally to catch up. That being said, they did turn a 24-6 deficit into a 24-16 final score, showing resolve in a spot where they easily could have let go of the rope. They also showed that despite some ugly overall stats (the Dolphins are NOT good in the yards-per-play department), this team is more than capable of making plays on both sides of the ball. I have little hesitation betting against Andy Reid as a double digit favorite. Since the start of the 2015 campaign, Reid’s Chiefs have been favored by -6.5 or more eleven times. They have twice as many SU losses in that role (four) as they do pointspread covers (two). Coming off the big divisional win against the Chargers last week, with a trip to Denver on deck, this divisional sandwich is most assuredly NOT a ‘bet-on’ spo t for this double digit favorite. Take the Dolphins. |
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12-17-17 | Rams +2.5 v. Seahawks | 42-7 | Win | 100 | 52 h 2 m | Show | |
Take the LA Rams (#323) The injuries haven’t stopped for the Seahawks defense. Already playing without future Hall of Famers Richard Sherman and Kam Chancellor in the secondary and the pass rushing force that is Cliff Avril; Seattle lost two more key starters in their loss at Jacksonville last week when former pro bowlers Bobby Wagner and KJ Wright went down. This is a clear problem for the Seahawks. They gave up 424 total yards and 30 points last week, while the Jaguars gained 6.4 yards per play. To put those numbers in perspective, that’s a full yard per play better than Jacksonville has averaged for the season. Seattle was gashed in the running game to the tune of 5.0 yards per carry from the Jags RB’s, while Blake Bortles averaged 9.9 yards per throw, his second best mark of the season. Without healthy bodies in the secondary or among their LB corps, we can expect the Seahawks defensive struggles to continue. That’s bad news against a Rams offense that is really clicking, off back-2-back 30+ point efforts. And don’t underestimate how much the first meeting between these two squads was an anomaly. The Rams outgained the Seahawks by more than 100 yards. They shut down Russell Wilson, holding Seattle’s QB to just 4.4 yards per pass attempt while picking him off twice. But the Rams committed five turnovers and failed to produce a touchdown in four red zone tries. I’m not expecting a repeat in the rematch. LA’s special teams units are ranked #1 by the Football Outsiders metrics; the fifth straight year that special teams coach John Fassel has guided this unit to a top quartile ranking. Good special teams make LA’s overall stats look worse, deflating their pointspreads. When Johnny Hekker pins an opponent deep, that opponent now has more potential yards they can gain. When Pharoh Cooper returns a punt or a kickoff 40 yards, LA has fewer offensive yards to gain. When Greg Zuerlein hits 18 of 19 field goals from 40+ yards, the Rams are comfortable settling for three and then kicking off again. Elite special teams – the Rams have them, for sure – are value makers, because the mainstream stats don’t accurately reflect their importance. Here’s the bottom line. LA is the better of these two teams right now - -heck, they were the better of the two teams in the first meeting -- , and I’m confident they’re ready to notch a statement win on the road in Seattle against a Seahawks team living on reputation more than reality. No rush to bet this -- we could see +3's between now and kickoff. Take the Rams. |
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12-14-17 | Broncos -2.5 v. Colts | 25-13 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show | |
Take Denver (#301) The quotes here tell most of the story. Indy is coming off a truly brutal game, losing in OT in a blizzard at Buffalo. Teams off an overtime game on Sunday playing on a short week for a Thursday Night game have been nothing short of awful: 8-22 SU, 6-24 ATS. And the Colts are most assuredly feeling the after effects of the snow bowl. Indianapolis head coach Chuck Pagano: “How do you feel after running in seven, eight, nine inches of snow, down after down?. It was a challenge getting on the field and off the field for us (coaches), let alone those players. It was like running on the beach in quick sand. Their legs were dead.” Colts QB Jacoby Brissett on Monday, his 25th birthday: “I feel a lot older than 25 today.” It’s surely worth noting that Brissett’s sack percentage is the highest in the NFL by a wide margin, bad news against the Broncos fierce pass rush. It’s also worth noting that the Colts have the single worst yards-per-play differential in the NFL, outgained by a whopping 1.3 yards on every snap, offense vs. defense. Indy hasn’t scored more than 17 points in a game since November 5th at Houston. 13 year veteran Frank Gore is coming off a 36 carry performance in the snow – a likely non-factor tonight. And Denver’s defense was thoroughly re-energized for the stretch run following last week’s dominant showing, shutting out the Jets. Broncos LB Shane Ray said it best: “This is the kind of game we expected to play against everyone, not just New York. Everybody that we play, we should beat them like this. Period.” I concur. Take the Broncos. |
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12-10-17 | Ravens +4.5 v. Steelers | Top | 38-39 | Win | 100 | 54 h 50 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Baltimore (#131) Ryan Shazier matters. The Steelers star linebacker is still in the hospital dealing with a spine injury following Pittsburgh’s brutally physical, ultra-intense, come-from-behind win on Monday Night Football. There’s been a notable loss in the locker room this week. Defensive coordinator Keith Butler: “(We’re) not worried about his football career, (we’re) worried about HIM.” Shazier’s absence is only one piece of the puzzle for the Steelers defense this week. Shazier’s backup, Tyler Matakevich, has been unable to practice all week, last seen wearing a shoulder harness. Cornerback Joe Haden is out again. Since his injury, the Steelers have allowed more pass plays of 30+ yards than any team in the NFL. Safety Mike Mitchell has missed two of the last three games as well, very questionable for Sunday. On a short week, off a physical game, these defensive injuries are meaningful! When the Steelers are forced to make waiver wire moves like picking up Sean Spence (a guy who couldn’t last with the lowly Colts, cut back in October) and put him in practice with the first stringers, it’s a problem. Let’s not forget that ancient James Harrison has only made three tackles all season, inactive for more than a month. These Steelers injuries are coming at just the wrong time – not to mention that they’ve got a pretty serious lookahead going for next week, with the #1 seed in the AFC on the line as they battle the Patriots. The Ravens season long offensive numbers are downright ugly. Joe Flacco is dead last in the NFL in net yards per pass attempt (counting sacks). RB Alex Collins has struggled in three straight road games, gaining only 2.8 yards per attempt on his 43 carries. But here in December, those numbers are flat out lying! Flacco might have had his best game of the season -certainly his best game since Week 5 at Oakland -- last week, finding Jeremy Maclin, finding Mike Wallace, finding Ben Watson, finding Danny Woodhead -- 10 different Ravens caught a pass. Meanwhile, Collins is up to 4.9 yards per carry and he’s punched in four TD’s over the past three weeks. The Ravens offense is pointed in the right direction; the Steelers defense in the wrong direction. Baltimore won’t have star cornerback Jimmy Smith following his season ending injury last week. But John Harbaugh isn’t short on cornerback depth, by any stretch of the imagination, with first rounder Marlon Humphrey poised to step in on the other side from Brandon Carr. John Harbaugh, talking about his rookie CB: “He is a self-starter. You don’t have to prod him really, to calm him down, because he is new to it.” Brandon Carr: “All the intangibles are there. He is smart, physical and can run. He is willing to take his lumps and he is going to be OK.” It’ll be at least somewhat easier for the Ravens secondary this week because Steelers second leading receiver JuJu Smith Shuster is out – Pittsburgh’s WR depth is rather limited these days. And it’s surely worth noting that Pittsburgh’s 26-9 win over Baltimore as -3.5 point favorites back in Week 4 was the first time either team had covered a pointspread of higher than -3 in this series since 2007, when Brian Billick was in his last season as the Ravens head coach. Laying points in this series has been an exercise in failure. Expect a tight, competitive contest that comes down to the final possession – exactly what we expect when the Steelers and Ravens collide. Big Ticket: Take the Ravens. |
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12-10-17 | Eagles v. Rams -1.5 | 43-35 | Loss | -106 | 50 h 55 m | Show | |
Take the LA Rams (#128) Three factors are in play for me in this ballgame. First, I’m not buying the Eagles as top notch contenders right now. Make no mistake about it – Philly has been feasting on the weak. We’re talking about a squad that has played a grand total of TWO games all season against opponents that currently have a winning record. One of those contests was a Thursday Night (extra randomness on Thursday Night games, for sure) game against Carolina, a game where the Panthers were riddled with key injuries and Cam Newton threw three picks. The other was last week against Seattle. So all the impressive numbers that Philly has put up, all those blowout wins against weaklings – none of that matters in a game like this one. Philly has to step up in class, something they haven’t proven they can do. Second, I’m buying Sean McVay in big games a lot more than Doug Pederson. Pederson’s gameplan against the Seahawks last week was right out of clown college -- not trusting his QB to make plays against a quality defense. McVay, on the other hand, has shown plenty of trust in Jared Goff, and Goff has paid that trust back with wins over quality defensive foes like the Jaguars and Saints. With all the chaos in LA this week (Philly’s been there all week too, affected by the fires), coaching is going to matter a lot on Sunday, and I trust McVay over Pederson in a game where the SU winner equates to the ATS winner. Lastly, the Rams have one SIGNIFICANT edge that doesn’t show up in their statistical profile – in fact, it makes that profile worse! That edge is on special teams, where LA is ranked #1 by the Football Outsiders metrics; the fifth straight year that special teams coach John Fassel has guided this unit to a top quartile ranking. Good special teams make LA’s overall stats look worse. When Johnny Hekker pins an opponent deep, that opponent now has more potential yards they can gain. When Pharoh Cooper returns a punt or a kickoff 40 yards, LA has fewer offensive yards to gain. When Greg Zuerlein hits 18 of 19 field goals from 40+ yards, the Rams are comfortable settling for three and then kicking off again. Elite special teams – the Rams have them, for sure – are value makers, because the mainstream stats don’t accurately effect their importance. LA is the better of these two teams right now, and I’m confident they’re ready to take care of business against an overrated foe at home on Sunday. Take the Rams. |
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12-10-17 | 49ers +3 v. Texans | 26-16 | Win | 100 | 47 h 31 m | Show | |
Take San Francisco (#119) I could put ten quotes in this spot, but I’m only going to use three. But make no mistake about it – from a mental standpoint, the 49ers have been completely transformed with Jimmy Garappolo behind center, and there were player quotes all over the place that made these same basic points after Garappolo’s first start for Kyle Shanahan. WR Marquise Goodwin: “Just look at him. Look at him. You know what I’m saying? He’s got it together. He came in a short time and has just helped us flip this around. Some people are just winners, and he’s a winner. He’s just a confident guy. When you play with confidence like that, you feel unstoppable.” Guard Brandon Fusco: “It’s a special feeling with him. He’s a special player. That’s the reason we did what we did to get him. You can definitely feel it. We’re all excited. There’s more to come from this.” Wide receiver Trent Taylor: “Having chemistry with your quarterback is a big deal. Just to understand timing and for him to understand where you're going to be and when and if you're going to break away from the defender or not. I think me and Jimmy have done good on that so far and he's done great with the rest of the receivers as well. Hopefully we can continue that." San Francisco is going to be priced in the betting markets like a team that has gone 2-24 SU in their last 26 games – a true bottom feeder. But the Niners had huge edges against Chicago last Sunday, edges not reflected in the final score because San Fran settled for field goals. But the Niners had a 23-8 first down edge and a 388-147 total yardage edge. Even their defense got re-energized because the offense wasn’t going three-and-out on every drive, on the field for a season low 36 snaps (leaving them very fresh here)! Defensive lineman DeForest Buckner: “I honestly felt like I could play another full game after that game.” Defensive coordinator Robert Saleh: “It is contagious. When the offense is moving the ball you could hear our guys on the sideline. It was the urgency at which they felt they needed to get the ball back for the offense because they were doing so well. It's a team game." Facing a Texans team that has lost five of their last six; looking the part of a passionless squad just playing out the string, look for San Fran to notch their first winning streak since Jim Harbaugh left town! Take the 49ers |
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12-03-17 | Panthers v. Saints -4.5 | 21-31 | Win | 100 | 51 h 26 m | Show | |
Take New Orleans (#370) My clients and I cashed a winner betting AGAINST New Orleans last week, yet I have no hesitation betting ON the Saints this week. What gives? Let me start with an excerpt from last week’s write-up: “We’ve got the New Orleans Saints as fat and happy as it gets, off a wild rally from 15 points down in the final three minutes of an overtime win against the Redskins, their eighth consecutive victory. The Rams in LA is the single toughest opponent that the Saints have played during this entire winning streak. With cluster injuries in their secondary (neither Marshon Lattimore or Ken Crawley have been able to practice all week), coming off a monstrous, satisfying comeback, the Saints are primed to see that winning streak end this week.” That was then, this is now. The Saints, now, have been humbled, off a frustrating loss. It’s surely worth noting that blindly betting Drew Brees off a loss since 2003 has been a major moneywinning proposition: 52-32 ATS (discounting pushes). And the injury riddled Saints defense is getting much healthier. Safety Kenny Vaccaro and LB AJ Klein both returned to the lineup last week. CB Ken Crawley is expected back in the lineup this week and he could be re-joined by rookie standout CB Marshon Lattimore, who missed last weeks’ game. The Saints won the first meeting between these two teams 34-13 because the Panthers offense didn’t work. Guess what – despite the 35 points they hung on the Jets last week, the Panthers offense still doesn’t work! Carolina scored on special teams and on defense last week; something I wouldn’t count on happening two weeks in a row. Without the traded Kelvin Benjamin or the injured Curtis Samuel and Greg Olson, Cam Newton completed only 11 of his 28 pass attempts while taking three sacks. They finished the game averaging less than 5.0 yards per play. Jonathan Stewart gained only 26 yards on his 15 carries. Devin Funchess was the only WR to catch a pass. This is not an offense that is clicking on all cylinders right now, bad news against an angry, focused Saints team primed to win this one by margin. Carolina’s defense isn’t necessarily as good as advertised either! The Panthers have faced San Fran, Buffalo, Chicago, Tampa (with Ryan Fitzpatrick), Miami and the Jets; all bottom quartile offenses that make the Panthers defensive numbers look at least a notch or two better than they probably are. Take the Saints. |
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12-03-17 | Browns +14 v. Chargers | 10-19 | Win | 100 | 51 h 7 m | Show | |
Take Cleveland (#371) The public bets against Cleveland every week and wins. The wiseguys bet ON Cleveland every week and lose. This has been going on for the better part of the last two seasons. The Browns are 2-9 ATS this year – dead last in the NFL; even worse than the Broncos, Bucs, Giants or Cardinals. They finished dead last in the NFL last year, covering only three pointspreads in 16 games. Clearly, there is going to be ‘value’ on the Browns after a dismal ATS stretch like this one, but only if they’re not quite as bad as the betting markets would indicate. I genuinely think that’s the case here, especially with star WR Josh Gordon returning to the lineup this week after an extended NFL mandated suspension. Hue Jackson is expected to stick Gordon right into the starting lineup on the other side from Corey Coleman, giving the Browns a pair of big play weapons on the outside. Cleveland has run the ball effectively all year, to the tune of 4.4 yards per carry. The Chargers, despite having Melvin Gordon on the roster, are more than a half yard per carry worse. LA doesn’t stop the run particularly well either, dead last in the NFL in yards per carry allowed. The Browns run defense is more than a yard and a half better PER CARRY than the Chargers. I’ve NEVER seen that before from a two touchdown underdog in my 19 previous football seasons here in Las Vegas. I understand that Cleveland has had all sorts of ‘never before’s’ and ‘how is this possible’ non-covers over the past two seasons – their betting bandwagon grows smaller and smaller every week. It’s been all about turnovers for the Browns, both this year and last. They’re -17 in turnovers already this season, dead last in the NFL, and they’ve got a young, inexperienced QB in Deshone Kizer who makes more than his fair share of mistakes. If the Browns are -3 in turnovers again this week, they’re not likely to cover. But the Browns didn’t commit a turnover last week. They’re facing the only team they’ve actually beaten in SU fashion over the last two years; knocking off LA last December. And the Chargers are NOT built for covering big pointspreads. This is the first time all year that LA is higher than -7. In fact, it’s the first time since 2014 that they’ve laid more than a TD; not a role that suits them. At -14 over the past three seasons, the Chargers would be 4-39 ATS. At +14 this year, the Browns would have only 3 ATS losses in their first eleven games, instead of the 2-9 ATS mark they current have. This is anything BUT a ‘step-up’ game for the Chargers, coming off their Thanksgiving blowout at Dallas. Now that so many bettors have given up on Cleveland completely, this is the week to step in and expect them to cash for us, with room to spare. Take the Browns. |
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11-26-17 | Saints v. Rams -2.5 | 20-26 | Win | 100 | 97 h 47 m | Show | |
Take the LA Rams (#268) This is truly the mother of all spot plays in the NFL this year. We’ve got the LA Rams, humbled and hungry; returning home with something to prove off an ugly loss at Minnesota, outscored 24-0 after their opening touchdown drive. We’ve got the New Orleans Saints as fat and happy as it gets, off a wild rally from 15 points down in the final three minutes of an overtime win against the Redskins, their eighth consecutive victory. Yet the pointspread here is less than a field goal – the Saints have developed a fairly significant betting bandwagon over the course of their extended run. LA isn’t going to hang their heads in shame off last week’s loss, as these quotes clearly tell us. QB Jared Goff: “We’ve responded to every bit of adversity we’ve faced so far, and I expect no different.” Head coach Sean McVay: “We didn't do enough things to win the football game, and it starts with me. We talk about it every single week, how you've got to be ready to go because it is a very humbling league. We definitely got humbled today by a very good team." DT Aaron Donald: “Their offensive line couldn’t block us one-on-one. Case (Keenum) just did a good job of moving around in the pocket.” McVay is 10% correct about the Rams ability to bounce back from adversity. Following a Week 2 loss to the Redskins, LA bounced back with consecutive victories; scoring 76 points in the process. Following a ‘crushing’ turnover filled home loss to the Seahawks in Week 5, the Rams won their next two games before the bye by a 60-17 combined score, including an impressive double digit road win at Jacksonville. I trust LA to bounce back strong because they’ve already shown us they can. That Aaron Donald quote about the Rams pass rush and Case Keenum’s mobility matters here as well. Drew Brees doesn’t have that same mobility, and he’s been feasting on the weak, beating the likes of the Dolphins, the Lions (in a Detroit turnover debacle), the Packers (with Brett Hundley), the Bears, the Bucs, the Bills and a Redskins team with injuries all over their defense in their last seven victories. The Rams in LA is the single toughest opponent that the Saints have played during this entire winning streak. With cluster injuries in their secondary (neither Marshon Lattimore or Ken Crawley have been able to practice all week), coming off a monstrous, satisfying comeback, the Saints are primed to see that winning streak end this week. Take the Rams. |
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11-23-17 | Chargers v. Cowboys | 28-6 | Win | 100 | 54 h 10 m | Show | |
Take the LA Chargers (#109) Whatever the Dallas Cowboys were a month ago, they aren’t that same team any more. Sure, the suspension of Zeke Elliott matters. But the injuries to pro bowl left tackle Tyron Smith and star linebacker Sean Lee are far more impactful when it comes to the Cowboys current form. In the two games since Smith and Lee got hurt, the Cowboys lost 27-7 and 37-9. Dak Prescott’s passer rating in those two games was a 55.4 – Deshone Kizer territory – and the Cowboys offense managed to put only a single TD on the scoreboard in eight quarters of football. Meanwhile, the Dallas defense was gashed for 215 rushing yards at 6.5 ypc last week on the heels of 132 yards on the ground from the Falcons the week before. Even worse, the Cowboys allowed seven touchdowns in nine red zone tries over that two week span. Tyron Smith isn’t likely to suit up here and even if he does, I’m not expecting ‘pro bowl’ form. Sean Lee isn’t coming back from injury just yet, meaning that we can expect the Cowboys defensive struggles to continue. All of Dallas’s season long stats are lying right now – this team has lost their collective mojo and I don’t trust Jason Garrett to fix it on a short week. Right now, the Chargers are arguably the best team in the AFC West; playing far better than their 4-6 record would indicate. In fact, since their 0-4 start, LA is 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS, the only SU losses coming in competitive games at New England and Jacksonville – no shame there. San Diego’s pass rush has been devastating; a top notch defensive ballclub. Philip Rivers continues to make plays downfield on a weekly basis while explosive RB Melvin Gordon has averaged better than five yards per carry over the last three weeks. The betting markets have adjusted the Cowboys down and the Chargers up off last week’s showings. Frankly, they haven’t adjusted enough in a game where the SU win for LA equates to a pointspread cover. Take the Chargers. |
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11-19-17 | Bucs v. Dolphins | 30-20 | Win | 100 | 72 h 15 m | Show | |
Take Tampa Bay (#455) I’m going to keep this one short and sweet. When we get a chance to bet against the Dolphins in a pick em priced game, we should have no hesitation making that bet. Miami has shown plenty of ‘quit’ in recent weeks, a team with the worst yards per play differential in the NFL – they gain 4.5 but allow 5.7, even worse numbers than the dismal Giants, Browns or 49ers. Those numbers aren’t fraudulent. The Dolphins have stolen more than their fair share of wins they didn’t deserve this season (missed field goal by the Chargers, Matt Cassel at QB vs. the Titans, very lucky comeback win vs. the Falcons, Matt Moore getting hot late vs. the Jets). This is a squad that could easily be sitting at 1-8 or 0-9 and being priced in the same range New York, Cleveland and San Fran are priced in the markets at this stage of the campaign. The Bucs defense showed pride last week in a dominating showing against the Jets, giving a disappointing squad a real spark of life heading into their matchup with the ‘lots of quit’ Dolphins. From a talent standpoint, there’s no comparison between these two teams – Tampa has the playmakers on both sides of the ball. And frankly, we should expect Jay Cutler mistakes, and when those mistakes happen, I’m not expecting the home team to respond well…. Take the Bucs. |
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11-19-17 | Cardinals +1.5 v. Texans | Top | 21-31 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 15 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Arizona (#461) From all indications, we can stick a fork in the Houston Texans right about now, because they are done. Think about what this squad has been through since the start of training camp. A hurricane severely disrupted their preseason. Their head coach cost them potential upsets at New England and Seattle with inane late game decision making. Their owner infuriated his players with his remarks at a well-publicized meeting in an atmosphere of racial tension. Their two best defensive players got knocked out for the year in a national TV home beatdown by KC. Their pro bowl offensive tackle held out, came back for a couple of weeks and then was traded at the deadline. And then, the final straw, was when their sparkplug, QB Deshaun Watson, in the midst of setting all time rookie records, went down in practice. Talk about going through the ringer! Tom Savage is god-awful. The Texans immediate, immense improvement once Watson took over as the starting QB was no accident. In the three games that Savage has started this year, the Texans scored a grand total of three offensive touchdowns, exactly one per game. They are 0-3 in those games, losing twice as a favorite (-6 and -5.5). All three of those losses came by double digits against the pointspread. Savage has completed only 47% of his passes, not throwing at an NFL level. There’s a reason that the Texans have brought in a half dozen QB’s since drafting Savage – they know he shouldn’t be out there. Deep threat Will Fuller won’t play this week, an underrated key to Houston’s gameplan. The Texans aren’t primed to score many points here, and this defense isn’t stopping anyone; picked apart consistently since Watt and Mercilus went down. Arizona continues to fight the good fight, and Blaine Gabbert is an undervalued commodity in this equation. The Cardinals, too, have suffered the injury bug in a big way this season. Yes, they’ve suffered a couple of ugly, embarrassing losses at Philly and against the Rams in London – two elite teams, mind you. But we’ve seen plenty of fight in Bruce Arians squad – two wins and a hard fought loss against the Seahawks last week. They’ve had extra prep time here off the Thursday game, and with 40 career starts under his belt and the ability to scramble out of the pocket, Blaine Gabbert is a QB I want my money on this week. Arians, talking about Gabbert at the end of the preseason: “I've been very pleased. Short-term, I'd be very comfortable if he had to play for us. Long-term, if he continues at this rate, he could be a starter.” Arians this past week, when asked why Gabbert has such a bad reputation as an NFL QB : “He was on really shitty teams.” Which he was; playing behind arguably the worst offensive lines in the NFL in both San Francisco and Jacksonville. Arizona’s offensive line isn’t great, but it’s better than anything Gabbert has played behind in his career! This game ain’t no pick ‘em – Arizona is the superior, harder playing squad, primed to win on Sunday. Big Ticket: Take the Cardinals. |
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11-12-17 | Browns +11 v. Lions | 24-38 | Loss | -115 | 49 h 51 m | Show | |
Take Cleveland (#265) Three basic points here. First, the Lions aren’t good enough to be laying double digits to anybody. Second, the Lions are in a truly miserable spot for any double digit favorite. And third, if there’s one week to be betting ON the Browns, this is the week! Let’s start from the top. Since their 2-0 start, the Lions have only covered two pointspreads – both on the road in divisional matchups against backup quarterbacks. They haven’t been favored by even a full field goal in any game this season. Detroit has won 13 games over the past two seasons. None of those 13 victories has come by more than two touchdowns. The Lions are most assuredly not a blowout team in the Jim Caldwell/Matthew Stafford era. Let’s not forget that Detroit’s -0.7 yards per play differential ranks #30 in the NFL, tied with winless San Fran. They’ve only reached 100 rushing yards once all season. Matthew Stafford has been sacked 26 times already. The Lions red zone offense ranks #27 in touchdown percentage, consistently settling for field goals. That matters A LOT in a pointspread range like this one. Detroit brought their ‘A’ game on Monday Night, winning for only the second time in their last 26 tries at Lambeau Field, a huge, emotionally satisfying victory. Up next? A road trip to face another division rival at Soldier Field in Chicago, followed by another divisional showdown against Minnesota. This is the very definition of a flat spot for a team with no track record of covering pointspreads in this role. That’s most assuredly not the case for the Cleveland Browns, a winless team coming off their bye week – a long term, positive expectation wagering situation. The Browns problems have been two-fold. First, their own red zone execution has been abysmal: dead last on defense, #28 on offense. Secondly, turnovers have killed this squad; an NFL high 21 giveaways compared to a bottom quartile nine takeaways. A bye week can only help in that regard, and the Browns are coming out of the bye as healthy as they’ve been all year. Look for Cleveland’s strong run defense to make the Lions offense one-dimensional . Look for the Lions to come out flat. Expect the back door to be wide open if Detroit does take a two score lead. And expect the hapless Cleveland Browns to cash our winning bet – let’s not forget that four of their eight losses have come by exactly three points……Take the Browns. |
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11-12-17 | Bengals v. Titans -4.5 | 20-24 | Loss | -107 | 49 h 50 m | Show | |
Take Tennessee (#262) My clients and I cashed a ‘right side’ winner betting against the Bengals last week in their 23-7 loss to Jacksonville. Let me start with an excerpt from that write-up. Numbers have been lightly edited to reflect current realities: “There’s a lot wrong in Cincinnati these days; in many respects ‘too wrong to fix.’ Cinci’s offense hasn’t worked all year; unable to move the football last week as double digit home favorites against a Colts defense minus key starters from every unit. They’ve already switched coordinators; that didn’t make a huge difference. The head coaching change is coming after the season – you can feel it already. Their offensive line is bottom tier, and that’s not going to change; held under 100 rushing yards in each of their last five games. Andy Dalton has been sacked on more than 9% of his dropbacks, #30 in the NFL. And Cinci’s turnover problems aren’t going away: -9 for the season – their defense has only recovered one fumble all year, not making the ‘effort’ plays.” The Bengals didn’t notch a single sack for the second time in their last three games against the Jags. They lost the ‘penalty yardage’ battle for the sixth straight week. They lost by double digits, SU and ATS, despite winning the turnover battle. And four the fourth time in eight games, Cinci was held to two TD’s or less; an offense that isn’t primed to suddenly get untracked here, even with AJ Green expected back on the field. Plain and simple – I have no hesitation betting against the Bungles these days, especially in games where they’ll need to win (or come pretty darn close) to cover the spread. Make no mistake about it – this Titans team has underachieved so far, in large part due to their red zone failures on offense, ranked near the bottom of the NFL in red zone TD percentage. The return of #1 draft choice WR Corey Davis from an injury absence can only help in that regard, especially since it should open things up for beefy backs Demarco Murray and Derrick Henry between the tackles. Titans WR Rishard Matthews, talking about how having Davis in the lineup will affect their offense: “A ton. That’s his job, is to come in here and be a playmaker. That’s what we all expect him to be. That’s what I expect him to come here and do right away. We got a little piece of it in the beginning of the year. He’s back and ready to go, so expecting big things.” Davis’s own quote: “This is the turnaround right here. I feel it.” There’s no betting bandwagon for Tennessee these days – their only pointspread cover since September came on a late garbage time TD with less than a minute to play against the Colts. This team is primed for a breakout game, Cinci is an ideal opponent to face right now, and the pointspread is downright cheap given the difference in both ability and mentality between these two squads right now. Take the Titans. |
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11-12-17 | Saints v. Bills +3 | Top | 47-10 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 52 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Buffalo (#264) This is the mother of all bad spots for the road favorite Saints, and the mother of all good spots for the home underdog Bills. The matchups work in Buffalo’s favor here, on both sides of the football. And yet public perception is down on Buffalo, while market support for New Orleans is sky high right now – my power rating number has the Bills as chalk here. When the matchups, situation and value all point in the same direction, we’re talking about a play worthy of Big Ticket status. Yes, the Saints have won six in a row since their 0-2 start. But this is not a team that is going 14-2, destined to never lose another game in the regular season. The quotes coming out of the New Orleans locker room have been pretty clear. The Saints know full well that they are not an elite ballclub. And they’re also a notch or two ‘fat and happy’ following a blowout home victory over their divisional rivals. Buffalo in November – even with fair conditions and gametime temperatures expected to be above 40 degrees – is not the Saints optimal venue; a team built for domes and turf. And the Saints are anything but battle tested during this winning streak where just about everything has broken right for them. This is NOT a ‘max intensity’ spot for the road team. The Saints six game winning streak has been mostly ‘right place, right time’. They faced Carolina before the Panthers fixed their broken offense. They got Jay Cutler in London. They got Detroit on a day where the Saints scored three non-offensive touchdowns. They got Brett Hundley in his NFL starting debut and Mitch Trubisky in his third career start. Last week, it was an ailing Jameis Winston before he gave way to tired retread Ryan Fitzpatrick. That, folks, is anything BUT a tough slate. Tyrod Taylor will be the best QB this team has seen in more than a month! The Saints defense has been great against the pass facing mostly bottom tier quarterbacks. But despite all of those weak QB’s and weak passing games that they’ve faced, New Orleans is still struggling to stop the run. That’s bad news against LeSean McCoy and the Bills power rushing game. McCoy wasn’t fresh last Thursday against the Jets, but the extra rest has him primed for a big bounceback this week. The Bills should get leading receiver TE Charles Clay back on the field here. And the Saints braintrust won’t have any film to watch trying to figure out how the Bills are going to use recently acquired Kelvin Benjamin at WR this week, giving Taylor another downfield weapon. The Bills pass defense has better overall numbers than New Orleans, with a 76.6 QB rating allowed. The Bills are a perfect 4-0 SU (3-0-1 ATS) at home this year, gaining a legitimate edge when playing in Orchard Park. Coming off their debacle last Thursday Night, facing road trips to KC and LA, followed by the Patriots over the next three weeks, this IS a max intensity spot for the home underdog. Take the +3, but be sure to take at least a taste of the moneyline in a game that the Bills are primed to win in outright fashion. Big Ticket: Take the Bills. |
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11-09-17 | Seahawks -6 v. Cardinals | 22-16 | Push | 0 | 34 h 19 m | Show | |
Take Seattle (#111) As we saw so clearly again on Monday Night, teams playing with a backup QB behind center tend to struggle against the better defenses that they face. We can expect that once again on Thursday as Drew Stanton and the Cardinals face off against the still elite Seahawks defense on a short week. Drew Stanton got ample playing time behind center for the Cardinals when they lost at home 36-6 in their 2015 season finale against Seattle. Stanton was the starter when the Cards lost 19-3 to the Seahawks in 2014. And those are Drew Stanton’s two previous career outings against Seattle – both downright ugly defeats in which Arizona’s offense didn’t work one iota. So what changes on this short week? Not much for Arizona, from an offensive standpoint. Bruce Arians got a CAREER high 37 carries from Adrian Peterson on Sunday; bad news for an aging back on a short week. In a similar spot last Thursday – off a particularly heavy workload -- LeSean McCoy gained only 25 yards on 12 carries in an ugly loss for the Bills. Bruce Arians, talking about his primary offensive weapon right now: “We’ll see how he feels …. I wish we had a full week. Obviously, we won’t be able to feed him that many times on Thursday night.” Here’s what Stanton had to say about the Cardinals run-heavy gameplan at San Francisco last Sunday: “The game plan was fantastic. I loved it. I loved every single part of it. Each day we got the install, I was getting more and more excited what was going on.” Too bad for Stanton that the Cardinals won’t be able to utilize that same gameplan this week! And there’s truly no comparison between the Seahawks stout defense and the injury riddled Niners defense that AP shredded last week. This is a Seahawks spot, all the way! We’ve seen Seattle dominate on this field repeatedly – three double digit wins and a tie on their last four trips to Arizona. Seattle outgained Washington nearly 2:1 on Sunday, but they missed three field goals and two 2 point conversion tries and committed a franchise record 16 penalties – fixable problems. Coming off that loss, now trailing in the NFC West race, I expect a sense of urgency from the road favorite here. Against the hapless Cardinals, urgency matters in a game the road favorite should win by a TD or more. Take the Seahawks. |
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11-06-17 | Lions v. Packers +3 | Top | 30-17 | Loss | -120 | 105 h 49 m | Show |
Big Ticket NFL Game of the YEAR: Take Green Bay (#474) Remember that Green Bay Packers team that we saw before the bye week losing badly at home to New Orleans? Well, you should probably forget that game – it’s a long way in the rear view mirror now, and the Packers team that we saw before the bye is not the one we’re likely to see coming out of the break. But the betting markets aren’t seeing it that way, installing the Lions as road favorites. That, folks, is a downright silly overreaction based pointspread, making the Packers as home dogs on Monday Night the single best bet I’ve seen in the NFL all season, truly worthy of GOY status. Here are my four basic premises. First, the Packers offense, other than Aaron Rodgers, is as healthy as they’ve been all year. Second, Brett Hundley is no Aaron Rodgers, but he’s more than capable of stepping up here. Third, the Lions aren’t very good and they never win in Green Bay. And fourth, from a situational standpoint, this is a CRUCIAL game for Green Bay in the division; a team that is still expected to get Aaron Rodgers back before the playoffs. Coming off their bye, we can expect the Packers ‘A’ game on Monday Night. The Packers are expected to have all five starting offensive linemen this week. They had one of the five healthy against New Orleans fierce pass rush before the bye. Tackle David Bakhtiari: “Being healthy is key. The bye week was definitely nice — especially with how banged up we were. Us offensive linemen, we were pretty much limping into this bye week. I think that’s big, too.” Head coach Mike McCarthy: “It’ll be great to have those five guys. We’ve talked about this time and time again that the best offensive lines are the ones that line up and practice and play together.” TE Martellus Bennett will be back on the field as well, key for a young QB like Hundley. Hundley was a projected first rounder coming out of UCLA until a disappointing senior season. Hundley showed well in the preseason, making plays with his feet as well as his arm. Hundley wasn’t good against the Vikings or the Saints in his first two outings, but Green Bay’s offensive line was a big part of that, as were the quality of the two defenses that he faced. Hundley stayed in Green Bay during the bye and got extra one-on-one work in with the coaching staff. Detroit isn’t anywhere near the Vikings or Saints when it comes to their pass rush or their ability to control the line of scrimmage on the defensive side of the football. Let me make this very clear – Brett Hundley is a ‘bet-on’ QB this week, coming out of the bye! The Lions are 1-25 SU at Lambeau Field since 1992, a house of horrors for Detroit year after year after year. This is certainly not a venue that bodes well for the Lions as road chalk. Detroit comes in off yet another frustrating defeat; their third straight loss, gaining more than 480 yards of offense against the Steelers without getting the ball into the end zone even once. Since their 2-0 start, the Lions have only covered one pointspread, and they’ve yet to cover ANY pointspreads this year as a favorite. Meanwhile, the Packers are 9-2 SU after the bye under Mike McCarthy. Both SU losses came on the road against teams that were undefeated at the time. Each of their last seven wins out of the bye week have been relatively comfortable, by a TD or more – they’re coming back rested and focused, consistently. Green Bay hasn’t quit on their coach or their season; a team that is still very much alive in the playoff race despite Aaron Rodgers injuries and their current two game skid. Expect a strong showing on Monday Night in a game where the betting markets appear to be reading the wrong tea leaves. Extraordinary value here! Big Ticket GOY: Take the Packers. |
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11-05-17 | Chiefs v. Cowboys | 17-28 | Win | 100 | 78 h 41 m | Show | |
Take Dallas (#470) The Chiefs defense is completely broken, but the betting markets haven’t realized it yet. Their season long offensive stats are lying, and the betting markets haven’t noticed that either. They’re on a short week off a very satisfying Monday Night win over a divisional rival at home. And they’re facing an undervalued foe. Put it all together and it’s not hard to make a strong case for fading the overrated Chiefs. Two weeks ago, we saw a terrible Raiders offense that hasn’t worked against anybody since Week 2 pick apart the KC pass defense to the tune of 417 yards and 31 points. Then last week, we saw a Broncos team with no passing game whatsoever and an injury riddled, struggling offensive line run the ball all night against the Chiefs; to the tune of 5.7 yards per carry, 177 yards on the ground. This is not a good defense; unable to stop the run OR the pass right now. The season long stats clearly show the Chiefs with the most explosive offense in the NFL – like the Falcons had last year; #1 in yards per play. Those numbers are lying when it comes to projecting forward. RB Kareem Hunt was insane for the first five weeks, notching a 50+ yard rush in every single game! Now that opposing defenses are gameplanning for him, Hunt has gained 21, 87 and 46 yards in his last three contests, with only one run longer than 15 yards. But the impact of that bevy of Hunt early season big plays is still having a HUGE impact on the stat sheet. Both the pointspread and the sharp money follows that stat sheet pretty closely, giving savvy bettors value AGAINST KC, because their current offense is currently more like a middle of the pack unit: 5.6 yards per play over the past three weeks. I understand that Zeke Elliott is an impact running back. I also understand that the Cowboys offensive line is healthy now, and they’ve dominated the last two games. Dak Prescott is on fire, leading the team to 28+ points in each of their last five ballgames and making good decisions with the football week after week – only 2 INT’s during that span. And the trio of Alfred Morris, Rod Smith and Darren McFadden are more than capable of filling the void left by Elliott’s suspension. Should Elliott get reinstated by the courts – which is quite possible as I write this up on Thursday – you’ll be getting the best of the number if you bet it early – NOW! Take the Cowboys |
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11-05-17 | Bengals v. Jaguars -5.5 | 7-23 | Win | 100 | 74 h 8 m | Show | |
Take Jacksonville (#458) Yes, the Bengals ‘saved’ their season thanks to a Carlos Dunlap pick six in the fourth quarter against the Colts last week. And, yes, the Jacksonville Jaguars have the smallest home field edge for any team in the NFL in the modern era. But those two bits of information are, quite literally, the only reasonable cases to be made for the road underdog. And, as you’ll see, there are ample reasons to think that the Jags are primed to beat Cinci by a TD or more on Sunday. There’s a lot wrong in Cincinnati these days; in many respects ‘too wrong to fix.’ Cinci’s offense hasn’t worked all year; unable to move the football last week as double digit home favorites against a Colts defense minus key starters from every unit. They’ve already switched coordinators; that didn’t make a huge difference. The head coaching change is coming after the season – you can feel it already. Their offensive line is bottom tier, and that’s not going to change; held under 100 rushing yards in each of their last four games. Andy Dalton has been sacked on more than 9% of his dropbacks, #30 in the NFL. And Cinci’s turnover problems aren’t going away: -10 for the season – their defense hasn’t recovered a fumble all year, not making the ‘effort’ plays. The Jags defense is as dominant as any stop unit in football; a playoff caliber unit. They’ve been blowing up the line of scrimmage all year, sacking QB’s and forcing turnovers in bunches. That’s how the Jags have held four of their first eight opponents to nine points or less; winning those contests by a combined score of 130-23 - all blowouts. I expect the Bengals turnover issues to continue this week. Blake Bortles is not a QB most bettors are comfortable laying points with; understandably so given his repeated struggles in this particular ATS role. But this one spot – coming out of their bye week, playing at home where they’ve yet to win all year, looking for back-2-back wins for the first time all year – is a max intensity spot for the home team. From local reports, the Jags certainly have the feel of a motivated, focused, bet-on team in practice this week; something I’m not sensing from the road underdog with the lame duck head coach. Lay it with Bortles, but expect Leonard Fournette to be the difference maker on offense! Take the Jaguars. |
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10-29-17 | Cowboys -1.5 v. Redskins | 33-19 | Win | 100 | 53 h 37 m | Show | |
Take Dallas (#269) To call the Redskins an injury riddled mess right now would not be an overstatement. How bad is the injury situation in Washington on a short week off their home loss to Philly on Monday Night Football? Bad enough that Jay Gruden CANCELLED PRACTICE on Wednesday, opting for a walk-through instead. There aren’t many NFL coaches willing to cancel a Wednesday practice for any reason, but with 17 contributors unable to suit up, it was the only decision that Gruden could make. The Redskins biggest injury issues are on the offensive line. The likes of Trent Williams, Brandon Scherff, Spencer Long, Morgan Moses and Ty Nsekhe were unable to suit up for practice on Thursday either. Gruden’s quote doesn’t inspire much confidence for this bettor: ““It has its challenges, that’s for sure. You walk out of the tunnel with Long, Nsekhe, Scherff, Williams and Moses and those guys aren’t practicing, it’s a little bit different when you go in the huddle. Heading into the game against the Redskins, Washington’s options on the offensive line are very limited. Their only healthy tackles for Thursday’s practice session were TJ Clemmings, a guy they picked up off the waiver wire after preseason, and Andreas Knappe, who was signed to the practice squad just last week. They also have undrafted rookie Tyler Catalina and Tony Bergstrom, signed on Wednesday after getting released by the Ravens on the roster, a truly uninspiring quartet. The Redskins defense is just as injury riddled as their offense. Five defensive backs are hurt, including both starting cornerbacks. Standout rookie pass rusher Jonathan Allen just went on IR, as did defensive leader LB Mason Foster. The Redskins just allowed 34 points in the final three quarters against Philly on Monday Night and there’s no reason to think it’ll be any easier for that stop unit this week, because the elite Cowboys offensive line is getting healthier! The Cowboys offensive line had their best game of the season coming out of their bye at San Francisco last week, buoyed by pro bowler Tyron Smith, as healthy as he’s been all season. No surprise, then, that Zeke Elliott enjoyed a huge afternoon, while Dak Prescott didn’t take a sack. If the weather is rainy, as expected, the Cowboys dominance in the trenches should only grow. And, of course, the Cowboys are primed to exploit the Redskins weaknesses up front with DeMarcus Lawrence and David Irving combining for 12.5 sacks already. Let’s not forget the fact that the Cowboys are true road warriors: 8-2 SU in their last ten meaningful road games. Dallas is the better of these two teams right now, and I expect them to show it! Take the Cowboys |
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10-29-17 | Bears v. Saints -9 | 12-20 | Loss | -105 | 49 h 3 m | Show | |
Take New Orleans (#254) Since their 0-2 SU and ATS start to the campaign, the Saints have come on like a freight train, notching four consecutive wins and covers. Last week’s win at Green Bay was particularly impressive, because they got the two score victory despite an awful, turnover plagued start on the road on grass in rainy conditions – not ideal Saints weather. The key to their resurgence has been a defense making plays all over the field; the antithesis of what we’ve seen from the Saints defensively in any recent season. A Saints secondary that has flat out lacked talent in recent seasons has been buoyed by first round draft choice CB Marshon Lattimore, who is playing lockdown man coverage on a weekly basis. Safety Kenny Vaccaro, another former first rounder, has been nothing short of stellar since returning to health. The pass rush has been there too, led by Cameron Jordan and Alex Okafor. And the results clearly show the ‘night and day’ improvement. Over the past five weeks, the Saints have held opposing QB’s to a 53.6 QB rating, lowest in the NFL. They rank among the top four defenses in yards allowed, points allowed and forced turnover during that span. New Orleans still has full season stats that reflect their ugly first two games, but those games are a long, long way in the rear view mirror now. That’s bad news for a Bears offense that gained all of five first downs last week, managing just a single field goal for their 60 minutes of playing time. Mitch Trubisky has completed a grand total of 24 passes for 348 yards in his first three games as an NFL starter, but the Bears have been in every game because they haven’t been facing a litany of explosive offenses, to put it mildly. That changes this week in New Orleans, where the Saints have averaged scoring 36 points per game; not an offense that Chicago can expect to shut down. If the Bears are going to hang around in this contest, they’re going to have to put up points in bunches. And that’s just not something Chicago is capable of doing these days. Note the two games – both road contests, like this one – where the Bears fell behind early and were forced to rely on a passing game that lacks downfield receivers. They lost by 3 TD’s each time, at Tampa and at Green Bay; completely unable to rally back from a deficit. That doesn’t change this week in a blowout spot for the home team. Take the Saints. |
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10-29-17 | Panthers +2 v. Bucs | Top | 17-3 | Win | 100 | 49 h 3 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Carolina (#257) This is a HUGE game for both squads. Tampa is 2-4, losers of three straight and on the verge of a complete collapse. Carolina is sitting at 4-3, but they’re coming off ugly back-2-back losses; sitting on the brink themselves. But only one of these two teams is primed to step up with a winning effort this week – the road underdog. Tampa’s problems aren’t getting fixed anytime soon. There’s clear dissention in the locker room, particularly on the defensive side of the football. Plain and simple – this injury riddled unit isn’t buying what defensive coordinator Mike Smith is selling, as clearly evidenced by these quotes: Offseason free agent acquisition TJ Ward, unhappy with the defensive rotations following their loss to Buffalo last week: “I did not come here to rotate. I did not come here to be a part-time player. I came here to make this defense better." Pro bowl defensive linemen Gerald McCoy, talking about the scheme: “I just play what they call. I don't have a say so in what we run, I just kind of go with it. I'm a team guy, so I do what they ask me to do. Do I feel like I could've been more effective in a different way? Yes. But I'm a team guy. It's not about Gerald. Whatever coach calls is what I'm going to run.” Smith’s issues calling plays for the defense are likely to continue to be a problem this week. For the season, the Bucs have only four interceptions, while allowing a whopping 295 yards per game through the air. They rank dead last in the NFL in both sacks and sack percentage. And they’re dealing with cluster injuries at cornerback. One starter, Robert McClain, is in concussion protocol, unlikely to suit up. The other starter, Brett Grimes, missed last week with a shoulder injury and hasn’t practiced this week either. McClain has played 215 snaps over the last four games. The only two experienced backups on the roster have combined for five snaps during that same span. The season ending injury to DE Noah Spence isn’t likely to help their struggling pass rush. No pass rush and an injury riddled secondary is a very hard thing for any NFL team to overcome, let alone a team that is clearly beset with chemistry issues between the coaching staff and the players. In short, the Bucs are a clear ‘bet-against’ team moving forward, especially with QB Jameis Winston unable to practice all week with a bum shoulder. I do not expect this defense to get any better in the short term, a stop unit ranked among the bottom five in the NFL in key metrics like yards per play allowed and opposing QB rating allowed. Don’t be fooled by Cam Newton’s struggles interacting with the media. That does not make Cam Newton a ‘bet-against’ QB by any stretch of the imagination. He’s still at 64% completions for the season – best of his career – while averaging 7.3 yards per pass attempt – second only to his Super Bowl season over the last five years. The problem has been turnovers, more than any other factor; a team that allowed a pair of 75+ yard defensive scores last week, now sitting at -9 for the season – only the Browns are worse. Facing a Bucs defense that doesn’t force turnovers is exactly what Cam Newton and this offense need. And, no, this locker room isn’t turning on itself like the one in Tampa seems to be, despite their level of frustration. WR Kelvin Benjamin: “I think everybody is frustrated. The whole offense was frustrated because the defense was giving us 3-and-outs and we didn’t put points up.” Offensive coordinator Mike Shula, trying to explain why they’ve struggled over the last two weeks after putting up 60 points in SU road wins at Detroit and New England in weeks 4 & 5. “We’re not as far off as we think. It feels like we are, and we all feel terrible.” The Panthers should have both LB Luke Kuechly and safety Kurt Coleman back in the lineup this week, two huge adds for a stop unit that gave up a grand total of five first downs and one field goal last Sunday. They’ve got a comparable offense, the MUCH better defense, the better locker room situation and the better chance at turning things around and salvaging their season. Wrong team favored here. Big Ticket: Take Carolina. |
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10-22-17 | Broncos +2 v. Chargers | Top | 0-21 | Loss | -115 | 102 h 56 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Denver (#473) My clients and I have already cashed one Big Ticket winner betting against the Chargers at the StubHub Center in LA. It was a sin of omission not to have more than one winning bet so far against a team with legitimately no home field advantage whatsoever. This week, they’re facing a superior opponent, fully motivated off an embarrassing loss last week; an opponent they’ve already been dominated by once this season. And LA is the favorite here, laying points! I’m not buying it! Philip Rivers did not look comfortable at the Stub Hub center in the preseason, complaining among other things about the locations of the play clocks and the sight lines for his receivers. The numbers show that very clearly through the first six weeks of the season, with a 3:3 TD-INT ratio in three games at home, compared to a 7:2 ratio in three games on the highway. No surprise, then, that the Chargers have yet to win a game or cover a pointspread in their new home. Yet the markets continue to factor in a home field edge for LA. Expect the Broncos to have as many fans (or more) at StubHub as the Chargers do; exactly what we saw in LA’s home losses to the Eagles, Chiefs and Dolphins. It’s surely worth noting that LA hasn’t put together a winning ATS record in the home favorite’s role since 2013. They’ve lost both previous tries as favorites this season SU and (of course) ATS. The Chargers were largely non-competitive for three quarters of the first meeting between these two squads. Trailing 24-7 in the fourth quarter, LA took advantage of a pair of Broncos turnovers in Denver territory as well as a missed Denver field goal to make the final score (24-21) look closer than the game actually was. Now the Chargers are returning home, fat and happy, off back-2-back tough road wins. Of course, the two wins came against the hapless Giants (0-5 at the time) and the hapless Raiders (major disappointment, injured QB and a four game losing streak). The markets, doing what they do, are convinced that LA is primed to make a run here, but I’m not buying that argument one iota. LA didn’t beat the Giants and Raiders as much as those two sorry teams beat themselves. And they’ll be facing a Broncos squad primed to make a statement off their dismal ‘no-show’ at home against the Giants last week. The Broncos defense was flat last week in a game where they had precious little film to prepare for what they were going to see against the Giants new look offense. I’m not expecting that to happen twice in a row, especially off a loss and facing a divisional foe. For the season, the Broncos have held foes to 3.0 yards per carry, the #1 ranked run defense in the NFL. The Chargers rank #31 in that category, opponents averaging a full 5.0 yards per carry differential. Denver has a big defensive edge against the pass too, ranked #6 in the NFL in yards per pass attempt allowed compared to the Chargers #16 rank. Plain and simple: Denver is the better of these two teams, and I expect them to show it! Wrong team favored. Big Ticket: Take the Broncos. |
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10-22-17 | Cardinals v. Rams -3 | 0-33 | Win | 100 | 49 h 11 m | Show | |
Take the LA Rams (#468) My clients and I cashed a Big Ticket winner with LA last week in their double digit win at Jacksonville. While the pointspread this week isn’t as user friendly – I can’t go back to the well with LA for another Big Ticket Report -- I have absolutely no hesitation supporting the Rams with a standard sized wager in London against the Cardinals. Let me start with an excerpt from last week’s write-up. Numbers have been adjusted slightly to reflect current realities: “There’s a lot to like about the LA Rams right now. The defense is getting better by the week under new coordinator Wade Phillips, buoyed by the return of Aaron Donald on the defensive line. LA has notched multiple sacks in every game. That defense played their best two games of the season over the past two weeks; a unit who’s full season numbers aren’t telling the true story of where they’re at right now. “The Rams turned the ball over five times against Seattle two weeks ago, their first ‘turnover plague’ game of the season. I do not expect that to be a long term problem for this squad, and they fixed it last week, even facing the top notch Jags stop unit. Jared Goff looks comfortable running Sean McVay’s offense – he’s only thrown three interceptions in 185 pass attempts for the season, while only taking nine sacks. Six different receivers have at least 150 receiving yards. And Todd Gurley is a threat to take it to the house every time Goff hands him the football.” The Rams offense is head and shoulders ahead of the Cardinals offense; more than a half yard per play better for the season. That fact is not represented well in this pointspread. We’ve seen LA win SU on the road at San Francisco, at Dallas and at Jacksonville. And LA took this trip last year, a fact that matters considering the trip to London is a brand new thing for the Cardinals. It’s worth noting that Arizona had to fly from the West Coast while the Rams flew out straight from Jacksonville. Arizona has played decently at home this year. Away from home, they’ve been a complete disaster, losing 35-23 at Detroit, barely escaping with a three point OT win as TD favorites at Indy, and blasted 34-7 at Philly. This isn’t a new issue. Since the start of the 2015 campaign, ‘Zona is a woeful 2-6 ATS as an underdog away from home. Both covers came in late December against teams playing for nothing. And there’s no comparison between the Rams solid stop unit and the injury riddled Bucs unit that Carson Palmer and Adrian Peterson shredded last week. Chalk worth laying! Take the Rams. |
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10-22-17 | Ravens v. Vikings -5.5 | 16-24 | Win | 100 | 49 h 10 m | Show | |
Take the Minnesota Vikings (#458) Baltimore was the most injury riddled team in the NFL in training camp. Then they went 2-0 to open the campaign against Cinci and Cleveland (when the Bengals were awful, off to an 0-3 start), thanks to an opportunistic (lucky?) defense that created ten turnovers in two games. But the injury bug continued to strike. Without pro bowl guard Marshall Yanda, missing four of their five projected offensive line starters from the start of training camp, the Ravens got beaten by the Jags and Steelers – two limited offensive teams so far this year – by a combined margin of 70-16. After a win against the struggling Raiders, it was more of the same for the Baltimore offense last week; held to ten points and less than 300 total yards in their OT loss at home to the Bears last week. Don’t be fooled for a moment about the final score of that game. The Ravens got a kick return TD and a punt return TD – otherwise the Bears would have blown them out. And I’m not anticipating two more special teams TD’s this week! The Ravens offense is clearly broken. From a yards per play standpoint, they rank #30 out of 32 NFL teams. Joe Flacco’s QB rating is 66.1 right now. His previous CAREER low was 80.3 as a rookie in 2008. They aren’t likely to have TE Maxx Williams (ankle) or deep threat WR Breshad Perriman (concussion) available, both downgraded to doubtful. TE Ben Watson has a bum knee, WR Mike Wallace has a bad back and WR Jeremy Maclin hurt his shoulder. Facing a staunch Vikings defense – a stop unit that has held all four home opponents under 20 points – we cannot expect the Ravens to suddenly come alive with TD’s in bunches. Baltimore’s defense is quickly becoming every bit as injury riddled and problematic as their offense. Run stuffing DL Brandon Williams has a foot injury, and the Bears ran for 231 yards against them last week, the third time in four games that Baltimore has given up 165+ on the ground. Cornerbacks Jimmy Smith, Jaylen Hill and safety Ladarius Webb are all questionable or doubtful, none of them healthy. Linebacker Tim Williams won’t play. This is truly a nightmarish injury situation, leaving Baltimore as a clear ‘bet-against’ team; far weaker than their 3-3 record would indicate. Minnesota is not! They’ve enjoyed a STRONG homefield edge in their new digs, winning three of their first four home games by double digit margins. In fact, Minnesota is 9-3 ATS in their first twelve regular season games at US Bank Stadium; an emerging trend worth riding especially when facing a clear ‘bet-against’ foe. Take the Vikings. |
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10-16-17 | Colts v. Titans -7 | 22-36 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show | |
Take Tennessee (#276) To say this is a ‘circled’ game for the Tennessee Titans is something of an understatement. The Titans have lost 11 consecutive games to the Colts, with Indy and Houston dominating the division and Tennessee ranked nearer to Jacksonville in the AFC South, relegated to ‘bottom feeder’ status. All four losses to Indy over the past two seasons have been hotly contested games, decided by a TD or less. And the Titans are coming off poorly played back-2-back losses. First, they got Deshaun Watson’d in Houston, then they followed that up with a dismal offensive showing with Matt Cassel behind center at Miami last Sunday. In 50 dropbacks over six quarters on the highway over the past two weeks, Cassel netted only 132 passing yards (counting the eight sacks he took). Normal starting QB Marcus Mariota is expected back in the starting lineup tonight. So we’ve got a Titans team with an axe to grind against a divisional rival that has owned them in every reason season. And we’ve got a Titans team with a chip on their collective shoulders, looking to wipe away the stink of their subpar showings over the past two weeks. They’ve got the optimal setting to do that – at home, in front of a raucous Monday Night Football crowd. And there’s no question about which of these two squads has the superior team in 2017. Over the course of their last four games, the Titans have faced three elite defenses – the Jaguars, Seahawks and Texans, all ‘top quartile’ units. Now they’ll take a big step down in class against the suspect Colts stop unit, a defense that allowed 46 points in each of their first two road games; ugly losses to the Rams (by 37) and the Seahawks (by 28). It’s surely worth noting that Tennessee beat that same Seattle team rather comfortably here at Nissan Stadium. We all know that Andrew Luck is still hurt, but Jacoby Brissett has filled his big shoes admirably, guiding Indy to a 2-2 record in his four starts. But Brissett is likely to be running for his life tonight, thanks to cluster injuries on the Colts offensive line. With their top three guards all injured, the Colts are expected to start undrafted second year OL Jeremy Vujovich and undrafted rookie Kyle Kalis at the guard spots this evening. That’s bad news against this defensive front! It’s surely worth noting how well the Titans defense played last week despite Cassel’s ineptitude, holding the Dolphins to 12 first downs and 178 yards, giving up just 3.0 yards per play. No surprise here if Dick LeBeau’s stop unit is a very tough nut for the Indy offense to crack this evening, while the Colts defense does not compare favorably to any of the stop units that Tennessee has seen over the past month. Indy has allowed a full 6.0 yards per play this season; tied for 31st in the NFL. Find a -7 (be smart, lay a little extra juice to get the key number, there are plenty of -7’s at -115 or -120 out there as I type this), and expect the Titans exorcize their Colts demons. Take the Titans. |
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10-15-17 | Rams +3 v. Jaguars | Top | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 76 h 33 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take the LA Rams (#265) Jacksonville is 3-2 right now and feeling pretty good about themselves off a blowout win in Pittsburgh last week. Of course, that win was as easy as it gets for the Jags, with Ben Roethlisberger throwing his career high in interceptions – Blake Bortles attempted a grand total of one pass after halftime of that contest. The previous week, the Jags were outgained by more than a yard per play against the Jets two weeks ago, even if you take the Jets two long 70+ yard TD runs out of the mix. This Jags team is capable of winning some games by relying on their playmaking defense coupled with Leonard Fournette’s ability to pick up chunks of yardage on the ground. But if Bortles is asked to do anything other than ‘game manage’, he’s a complete disaster, getting worse, not better. It’s not like the Jaguars have enjoyed any sort of reasonable home field advantage in Jacksonville. They lost their only previous home game by three touchdowns to Tennessee. Last year, they lost six times in seven tries here in Jacksonville. My numbers show them with an 9-28 SU mark on this field dating back to the start of the 2012 campaign, a consistent track record of failure. And it’s surely worth noting that in games where the favorite was -2 or higher, the underdog has gone 4-0 ATS in Jaguars games this year; not a team to lay points with! There’s a lot to like about the LA Rams right now. The defense is getting better by the week under new coordinator Wade Phillips, buoyed by the return of Aaron Donald on the defensive line. LA has notched multiple sacks in every game, bad news for a QB like Bortles who makes mistakes under duress. That defense played their best game of the season last week against Seattle; a unit who’s full season numbers aren’t telling the true story of where they’re at right now. The Rams turned the ball over five times last week, their first ‘turnover plagued’ game of the season. I do not expect that to be a long term problem for this squad. Jared Goff looks comfortable running Sean McVay’s offense – he’s only thrown three interceptions in 164 pass attempts for the season, while only taking six sacks. Six different receivers have at least 150 receiving yards. And Todd Gurley is a threat to take it to the house every time Goff hands him the football. The Rams offense is head and shoulders ahead of the Jaguars offense; a full yard per play better for the season. That fact is not represented well in this pointspread. We’ve seen LA win SU on the road at San Francisco. We’ve seen them win SU on the road at Dallas. While LA is flying East, this is not an early start game. And the Jags homefield edge is as small as any in the NFL. The Rams full season defensive numbers are lying and their offense is the vastly superior unit. Big Ticket: Take the Rams. |
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10-15-17 | Bears +6.5 v. Ravens | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 72 h 26 m | Show | |
Take Chicago (#261) The numbers don’t lie. In their last 14 tries as favorites of more than a field goal, the Baltimore Ravens are 3-11 ATS. All three of the covers came against the same team – the Cleveland Browns, the absolute worst team in football in recent seasons. Continuing a long term trend under John Harbaugh, the underdog in Ravens games has been profitable to bet blindly once again this year. Baltimore was the most injury riddled team in the NFL in training camp. Then they went 2-0 to open the campaign against Cinci and Cleveland (when the Bengals were awful, off to an 0-3 start), thanks to an opportunistic (lucky?) defense that created ten turnovers in two games. But the injury bug continued to strike. Without pro bowl guard Marshall Yanda, missing four of their five projected offensive line starters from the start of training camp, the Ravens got beaten by the Jags and Steelers – two limited offensive teams so far this year – by a combined margin of 70-16. That’s the real Ravens; not a team with any business in this pointspread range right now. I know they blew out Oakland last week, in large part due to the Raiders own incompetence. Make no mistake about it -- that victory did not make me think that the Ravens have suddenly solved their myriad of problems; a team that has been outgained by 0.6 yards per play this season. The Bears aren’t a pretty team to watch and they’re certainly not a ‘sexy’ squad with a 1-4 record and a short week to prepare off a Monday Night loss. But the effort has been there for Chicago every week, especially on the defensive side of the football. They’re getting key LB Danny Treviathan back in the lineup after his league mandated suspension. And the Bears season long offensive stats are flat out lying now that Mike Glennon has mercifully been benched for a playmaking Mitch Trubisky. Too many points! Take the Bears. |
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10-12-17 | Eagles v. Panthers -3 | 28-23 | Loss | -115 | 33 h 52 m | Show | |
Take Carolina (#104) There’s a lot to like about the Carolina Panthers right now. A team that went 15-1 SU (11-5 ATS) and went to the Super Bowl two years ago is showing signs that they are capable of putting another strong run together here in 2017. It starts with a stop unit in excellent in early season form, holding foes to 4.8 yards per play, the #4 defense in the NFL right now. The Panthers offense came out of the gate looking very sluggish. Cam Newton missed the entire offseason, recovering from surgery, and he looked rusty and out of sync for the first three weeks of the campaign. Those early season stats are significantly impacting this pointspread, even though they are effectively meaningless now. Cam Newton found his stride against New England two weeks ago, finishing with the seventh highest single game QB rating of his career. He did it again last week in Detroit, finishing with his fourth best QB rating of his career. When a former MVP level QB goes 48-62 for 771 yards and 6 TD’s in two games; we can reasonably assume that he’s a ‘bet-on’ guy moving forward. Panthers LB Thomas Davis: “We had a lot of people who were counting him out at the beginning of the season – really because we kind of limited some of the things he was capable of doing. But now you see him going out and running the ball again. His arm strength is back. And he’s putting the ball on the money.” Yes, the Eagles have won three straight since their loss to KC, but those three wins have come against the Giants, Chargers and Cardinals; three teams that all have significant offensive issues. It’s surely worth noting that those squads are a combined 2-11 SU, 2-10-1 ATS in all games not against one another; both wins coming against fellow bottom feeders Indy and San Fran. And make no mistake about it – Philadelphia’s defense is not built to handle high octane passing attacks without their top cover corner Ronald Darby, who is out indefinitely. To make matters worse, their top interior defensive lineman, Fletcher Cox, is very questionable with a strained calf. The team went 1-9 SU without left tackle Lane Johnson in the lineup last year while going 6-0 with him healthy. Johnson will be out this week, dealing with a concussion. The Eagles defense has been ‘cramming’ for their test on Thursday, a short week with travel for a squad dealing with the injury bug. Safety Malcolm Jenkins: “Last year we played the Giants on Thursday night. That's a divisional opponent. You've got years of notes on them. But this is an opponent that is doing so much offensively that you're not necessarily familiar with what you've got to prepare for and cram for. It makes it tough. We definitely have our hands full over the next couple days.” Defensive end Chris Long: “With a tough team like Carolina and the multitude of looks they give you in the run game and the different ways they can beat you, it's a challenge." I don’t expect Philly to be up for that challenge….. Take the Panthers. |
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10-08-17 | Chiefs v. Texans +1 | Top | 42-34 | Loss | -100 | 105 h 53 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Houston (#474) The Houston Texans looked awful offensively in Week 1 with Tom Savage starting at quarterback. They looked every bit as bad in Week 2, travelling to Cincinnati with rookie QB Deshaun Watson promoted to make his first career start on the road on a short week (Thursday Night Game). The stats from those two games make up half the statistical database for the Texans this season, yet they are completely meaningless when we look forward, not backwards. In two games with normal prep time for their rookie QB, the Houston Texans have covered the spread by 10.5 points at New England and by 38.5 points against Tennessee last week. Both the Patriots and Titans are power rated as playoff teams, not weaklings. In my humble opinion, the betting markets are not valuing Houston correctly at this stage of the campaign; a ‘bet-on’ team in every sense of the word! My clients and I cashed a Big Ticket winner supporting the Texans last week, as easy as it gets. Here’s an excerpt from my write-up for that game, with numbers edited slightly to reflect current realities: “What on earth does DeShaun Watson have to do before the betting markets start to show the Houston Texans a lick of respect. Yes, Watson was rough in his debut, coming off the bench in Week 1 against the Jaguars stout stop unit. Since that time, he engineered an upset win at Cinci on a short week, and followed that up with a brilliant game at New England last week, giving the defending returning Super Bowl champs a sixty minute battle. “I understand that rookie QB’s don’t have full command of the playbook yet. But I also understand that rookie QB’s with the ability to make plays with their feet have a HUGE edge over traditional drop-back passers. That’s at least part of the reason why Dak Prescott excelled in Dallas as a rookie last year, and why both Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota have enjoyed success very early in their careers. DeShaun Watson can make plays with his feet; averaging 7.8 yards per carry on 19 rushing attempts. He’s also making strong throws downfield – five different Texans receivers have caught a pass of 25 yards or longer already. Speedster Will Fuller, last year’s first round draft choice, made an immediate impact in his first game of the season on the other side of DeAndre Hopkins last week, giving the Texans two legit home run threats. The 33 points Houston hung at New England is a legitimate harbinger of things to come….but the betting markets are not being the least bit proactive with the Texans right now.” But the markets continue to show love for Kansas City, currently power rated as the #1 team in the NFL just about everywhere. I understand the Chiefs have looked really good thusfar. But I also understand that the Chiefs aren’t going 16-0 this year; they’re coming off a huge last minute win (and an extremely fortuitous pointspread cover) on Monday Night against the Redskins; and they’re travelling on a short week to face a defense that completely shut them down last year, holding KC to four field goals. Wrong team favored here; and Houston offers legit Big Ticket value on a weekly basis right now...at least until this national TV game. Big Ticket: Take the Texans. |
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10-08-17 | Packers v. Cowboys -1.5 | 35-31 | Loss | -115 | 101 h 48 m | Show | |
Take Dallas (#472) If you didn’t watch the game last Thursday Night and simply looked at the final score, you might think that Green Bay’s early season issues have been fixed. But if you watched the game, you saw what I saw – the Bears completely melting down, handing the Packers cheap TD after cheap TD. When the carnage ended, Chicago had more first downs than Green Bay, more rushing yards AND more passing yards – with Mike Glennon at QB vs. Aaron Rodgers, yet the Packers had an easy 3 TD victory. Of course, the Bears -4 turnover margin was the key factor in the game…. And bettors just saw the Dallas Cowboys get whipped on their home field by the LA Rams. The Rams are getting plenty of respect here in Vegas, but that level of respect hasn’t seeped out into the broader betting community just yet. So, for many people, it looks like the Cowboys second bad loss in three weeks after they got hammered in Denver. All of this has resulted in a short pointspread here, with Cowboys backers asked to lay less than a field goal, at home, in a ‘playoff revenge’ situation. There’s ample reason to expect a Cowboys victory, by margin. Let me start with the anti-Packers piece of the equation. Green Bay has a cluster injury problem on their offensive line. They beat the Bears last week using four guards and a center, including Lucas Patrick, an undrafted rookie out of Duke. This is a problem against the fierce Cowboys pass rush, with DeMarcus Lawrence leading the NFL in sacks. Green Bay doesn’t have a single rush of longer than 13 yards in their first four games, and starting RB Ty Montgomery – the speedster – isn’t expected to suit up this week. The Packers have undergone a youth infusion in their secondary and, quite frankly, their linebacking corps isn’t very good. These are BIG problems going against a hungry, motivated Cowboys squad coming off a loss. Dez Bryant burned the Packers for 132 receiving yards and two TD’s in the playoff loss last January and he’s coming off his first really good game of the new campaign. Zeke Elliott primed for success here against a Packers stop unit not built to stop balanced attacks and power running games. Dak Prescott showed great leadership following the Cowboys first loss, rallying them from behind at Arizona the following week; a ‘bet-on’ QB in this spot. And Green Bay is an overvalued commodity right now, worth fading in this price range without hesitation. Take the Cowboys. |
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10-08-17 | Jaguars v. Steelers -8 | 30-9 | Loss | -110 | 97 h 33 m | Show | |
Take Pittsburgh (#458). NOTE: ERROR Correction! This play was originally entered wrong. The correct play is on the STEELERS! Here’s the premise. Pittsburgh came into the season power rated as one of the top Super Bowl contenders; right there with the Patriots, Falcons, Packers, Cowboys and Seahawks. That power rating was probably a bit lofty for the first few weeks – the Steelers offensive starters spent virtually no time on the field together in preseason, with multiple key veterans nursing injuries. That lack of on-field time together hurt Pittsburgh badly in Week 1; a sluggish showing at Cleveland. They faced the Vikings elite defense next, but still won by 17 on this field – their only previous home game in 2017. Then Pittsburgh went to play at Chicago against the Bears stodgy defense and struggled. Last week, against the Ravens quality defense, the offense finally showed signs of breaking out of their funk. Le’Veon Bell got untracked, rushing for 144 yards and two touchdowns. Big Ben spread the ball around – five different receivers caught at least three passes. And Pittsburgh won comfortably, despite not putting up gaudy offensive numbers. As a bettor, my goal is to be proactive, not reactive. There’s nothing systemically wrong with the Steelers offense, despite their disappointing production. Let’s not forget how little time they spent together in training camp. Nor should we forget that Pittsburgh has faced good defenses three weeks in a row. And perhaps most importantly, this is a home field that really matters for the Steelers offense! Dating to the start of the 2014 campaign (no need to go back further, these numbers have been consistent for many years), Ben Roethlisberger has an 85.3 QB rating on the highway, but a 109.5 QB rating at home. He’s averaged more than a yard per pass better at home, and the TD-INT ratios are staggering: 62-20 here at Heinz Field vs. 24-23 on the highway. The Steelers have scored 24+ in 13 of their last 14 on this field. The markets have devalued them at least somewhat because of their sluggish start. After a series of mediocre offensive showings, this team is primed to go for the kill this week! Jacksonville was outgained by more than a yard per play against the Jets last week, even if you take the Jets two long TD runs out of the mix. And make no mistake about it – Blake Bortles is getting worse, not better. With the game on the line against the Jets last week, Bortles misfired on pass after pass. He’s lost confidence in himself and his teammates have followed suit. When the Jags can run the football and rely on their defense, they’re certainly capable of playing competitively. But the Steelers defense has been downright nasty all year, a vastly underrated unit that has held foes to just 4.2 yards per play; best in the NFL. And asking Bortles to be decent in a ‘likely to be playing from behind on the road against a tricky, blitzing defense’ situation is not something I’m willing to do. Put it all together and this is a rock solid ‘buy low’ opportunity here for an elite team primed for a breakout game on their home field. Take the Steelers. |
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10-01-17 | 49ers +7 v. Cardinals | 15-18 | Win | 100 | 95 h 40 m | Show | |
Take San Francisco (#273) I could do this write-up in a single sentence: ‘Arizona has no business laying a TD to anybody right now’. Here’s an excerpt from my write-up recommending a bet against the Cardinals on Monday Night Football against Dallas, with the numbers adjusted to reflect current realities: “I can understand the wiseguy rationale supporting Arizona here, but I don’t agree with it one iota. Carson Palmer had a QB rating of 104.6 in 2015. Last year, it declined to 87.2. Through three games here in 2017, Palmer has a QB rating of 76.1, despite facing the Lions and Colts, who finished ranked #32 and #28 against the pass last year based on Football Outsiders advanced metrics, and a Cowboys team minus three starters in the secondary. “Palmer’s struggles are likely to continue; an aging QB at the tail end of his career. Star RB David Johnson is out, and the team averaged only 3.3 yards per carry without him against Indy and only 2.3 yards per rush against Dallas; getting very little from the running game. The Cards offensive line is banged up, with DJ Humprhies and Alex Boone out while Mike Iupati is questionable to suit up. Their receiving corps is a mess, with John Brown likely to miss, Jermaine Gresham and JJ Nelson very questionable and Jaron Brown not 100% either, dealing with a knee injury.” The 49ers won two games last year. Yet a better Arizona team than this one never sniffed a pointspread cover as home favorites against San Fran, winning 23-20. That’s fairly typical for Arizona, now sitting at 6-12 ATS at home since the start of the 2015 campaign; in large part due to a defense that is struggling to get stops. This team can’t be laying TD’s right now, plain and simple. The 49ers offense showed real signs of life last week against the Rams; the first time this season they’ve shown any comfort level with Kyle Shanahan’s offensive schemes. Their defense fared well twice in three games, the lone exception coming on a very short week. This time around, the Niners have the long week with extra prep time (having played Thursday Night), while the Cardinals are off a short week, having played on Monday Night. That prep edge matters in spread ranges like this one! Take the 49ers. |
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10-01-17 | Bills v. Falcons -7.5 | 23-17 | Loss | -110 | 92 h 35 m | Show | |
Take Atlanta (#268) This game has all the makings of a mismatch for one reason and one reason only. The Falcons offense is elite. The Bills offense is bottom tier. It’s hard for this bettor to picture the Bills defense shutting Atlanta down, and it’s just as hard for me to picture the Bills offense trading points with the Falcons for four full quarters. The results don’t lie. At home, the Falcons have scored 34, 44, 36, 38, 41, 28, 39, 33, 30 and 48 points in their last ten games at Mercedes Benz Stadium, playoffs included. They hung 30 on the road last week in Detroit, despite a three interception showing from Matt Ryan (two of the INT’s bounced off his receivers hands, including one in the red zone that took a scoring opportunity away). It’s surely worth noting that the Falcons SU win with a -3 turnover margin was only the 4th time a team has accomplished that since 2011, with -3 turnover teams now 4-124 SU during that span. Coming off a turnover filled effort like that, returning home to a field where their offensive comfort level is second to none, we can expect another 30+ point performance from Matt Ryan and company here – it’s what they do. So can the Bills hope to trade points with Atlanta? I seriously doubt it! Buffalo hung 26 points against Denver last week, but there was no explosiveness in this offense – they averaged only 4.3 yards per play. Through three games, they’re averaging only 4.6 yards per play, and they were held to a single field goal in their lone road game this season. Tyrod Taylor has shown precious little chemistry with his rebuilt receiving corps – he’s only completed 17 passes to his WR’s in three games! Shady McCoy isn’t even averaging three yards per carry. Bottom line: one team can be expected to score TD’s, the other one cannot. And with Buffalo a tad bit ‘fat and happy’ off their upset win against the Broncos while Atlanta was not amused by their turnover filled near upset at Detroit, the spot reeks of a blowout for the home favorite on Sunday. Take the Falcons. |
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10-01-17 | Titans v. Texans +1.5 | Top | 14-57 | Win | 100 | 92 h 33 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Houston (#260) What on earth does DeShaun Watson have to do before the betting markets start to show the Houston Texans a lick of respect. Yes, Watson was rough in his debut, coming off the bench in Week 1 against the Jaguars stout stop unit. Since that time, he engineered an upset win at Cinci on a short week, and followed that up with a brilliant game at New England last week, giving the defending returning Super Bowl champs a sixty minute battle. I understand that rookie QB’s don’t have full command of the playbook yet. But I also understand that rookie QB’s with the ability to make plays with their feet have a HUGE edge over traditional drop-back passers. That’s at least part of the reason why Dak Prescott excelled in Dallas as a rookie last year, and why both Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota have enjoyed success very early in their careers. DeShaun Watson can make plays with his feet; averaging 8.3 yards per carry on 15 rushing attempts through 2 ½ games. He’s also making strong throws downfield – five different Texans receivers have caught a pass of 25 yards or longer already. Speedster Will Fuller, last year’s first round draft choice, is back at practice and could suit up on the other side of DeAndre Hopkins this week, giving the Texans two legit home run threats. The 33 points Houston hung at New England last Sunday is a legitimate harbinger of things to come….but the betting markets are not being the least bit proactive with the Texans right now. Tennessee has one defensive weakness, but it’s a doozy. The Titans are not defending downfield throws very well at all. We saw this defense get picked apart by David Carr and the Raiders in their opener. We saw them get picked apart again last week, as Russell Wilson – with a bottom tier offensive line protecting him and a receiving corps that hadn’t done diddly squat in the first two games – looked like a pro bowler, throwing for 373 yards and four TD’s without an interception while taking only one sack. It’s surely worth noting that this defense has created only three turnovers in three games. No surprise here if the Texans offense lights up the scoreboard again this week. Marcus Mariota has only faced Romeo Crennel’s defense once before and it wasn’t pretty. Crennel’s schemes gave Mariota fits, as he finished just 13-29 without a TD; one of his five worst games as a pro based on QBR ratings. The Titans offense is a notch or two overrated this week after piling it on against a gassed Seahawks defense in the heat last week, putting up stats that were ‘weather and situational’ related more than any other factor. And it’s surely worth noting the Titans propensity for settling for field goals, with only a 40% TD conversion rate in the red zone. That’s not what I’m looking for out of my road favorites. Wrong team favored here! Big Ticket: Take the Texans. |
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09-25-17 | Cowboys -2.5 v. Cardinals | 28-17 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show | |
Take Dallas (#489) Wiseguys enjoyed a HUGE weekend in the NFL, while recreational bettors got burned repeatedly, with one ‘public’ side after the next going down in flames on Sunday. Expect that to change on Monday Night, with the sharp $$ pushing the line down to Dallas -2.5 at many books as I write this. The wiseguys are betting Arizona for two reasons tonight. First, they like the spot for the Cardinals. Arizona is returning home for the first time after playing on the road in Weeks 3 & 4 of the preseason, then again in the first two weeks of the regular season. Secondly, the sharps are clearly concerned with the injuries to the Cowboys secondary with both Nolan Carroll and Chidobe Awuzie ruled out this evening. I can understand the wiseguy rationale here, but I don’t agree with it one iota. Carson Palmer had a QB rating of 104.6 in 2015. Last year, it declined to 87.2. Through two games here in 2017, Palmer has a QB rating of 65.5, despite facing the Lions and Colts, who finished ranked #32 and #28 against the pass last year based on Football Outsiders advanced metrics. Palmer’s struggles are likely to continue this evening, an aging QB at the tail end of his career. Star RB David Johnson is out, and the team averaged only 3.3 yards per carry without him in Indy last week, getting very little from the running game. The Cards offensive line is banged up, with DJ Humprhies expected to miss and Mike Iupati questionable to suit up. Their receiving corps is a mess, with John Brown expected to miss, Jermaine Gresham and JJ Nelson very questionable and Jaron Brown not 100% either, dealing with a knee injury. For what it’s worth, it sure looks as if Larry Fitzgerald has finally lost a step. Even with the Cowboys dinged up secondary, Arizona’s offense is not primed to march up and down the field. The Cowboys were road darlings last year, opening up the season with a 6-0 SU, 5-0-1 ATS mark on the highway, including SU wins in Pittsburgh and Green Bay. This team can handle the intensity of playing in Arizona on a Monday Night. They’re coming off the first true blowout loss of the Dak Prescott/Zeke Elliott era, and based on everything I’ve read, this is a hungry, angry team with something to prove to a national TV audience tonight. Prescott: “I think we just didn’t play our game and we didn’t execute the way that we should or we normally do….I know I’ll get better from it, I know this team will get better from it and it’ll be a learning experience.” Expect the Cowboys to show that they’ve learned their lesson with a road win tonight. Take the Cowboys. |
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09-24-17 | Bengals +9 v. Packers | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 121 h 45 m | Show | |
Take Cincinnati (#485) The Packers offense didn’t really work in Week 1 against Seattle. They were shut out in the first half, and one of their two second half TD’s came on a six yard ‘drive’ following a fumble. The Packers offense didn’t really work in Week 2 against Atlanta either. In a ‘shootout’ type of game, the Packers were still sitting on 10 in the fourth quarter, and by then it was garbage time of a blowout loss. Aaron Rodgers has a QBR of just 54.7 through two games, worst of his career if extrapolated to the full season. RB Ty Montgomery, despite his blazing speed, is averaging 3.1 yards per carry with a long rush of eight yards on his 29 attempts. Top WR Jordy Nelson is banged up already, dealing with a quad injury. WR Randall Cobb is banged up too, with a bum shoulder. But perhaps most important injuries of all are on the offensive line, where Jahri Evans and Jason Spriggs are the latest to go down, on the heels of injuries to both starting tackles – Brian Bulaga and David Bahktiari. Yes, that’s three starters and the top backup tackle all dealing with injuries for Green Bay this week. On Monday morning, the headlines will talk about Aaron Rodgers, but the reality is that his OL and his receiving corps is a litany of walking wounded. This is NOT a team primed to win games by big margins right now. Say what you want about the Bengals offense (I’ll say plenty in a moment), but the Bengals defense continues to be an elite unit. Cinci has a red zone touchdown percentage of zero and their offense has turned the ball over an NFL high six times; yet the D has hung tough despite some very adverse circumstances. This is not a defense primed to allow TD’s in bunches against an opponent with significant offensive line issues. And Cinci’s offense has wildly underachieved early. A ‘near player mutiny’ sent former coordinator Ken Zampese to the ranks of the unemployed, replaced by veteran coach Bill Lazor. They’ve had extra time to get ready for Green Bay and install Lazor’s tweaks, off since last Friday. It’s not like the Bengals don’t have offensive talent, and even in the midst of their 2016 debacle, Cinci didn’t suffer any of their last five losses by more than a touchdown. Expect Cinci to hang tough for the full sixty minutes. Take the Bengals. |
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09-24-17 | Giants +6 v. Eagles | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 117 h 21 m | Show | |
Take the New York Giants (#479) Let me start with an excerpt from my Monday Night Football write-up supporting the Detroit Lions over the Giants. “These are the offenses that didn’t work in Week 1: San Francisco, Seattle, Indy, Cinci, Houston along with the Jets and Giants, none of whom put up more than a single touchdown on the scoreboard. Guess what – none of those offenses worked in Week 2 either.” Yet I’m taking the points with the Giants in this one, after fading them on Monday Night, another game where their offense didn’t work. What gives? First, this pointspread was sitting at +3.5 prior to Monday Night. Now it’s +6. That’s a pretty big reaction, in my opinion, despite the fact that the Giants are poised to get better, not worse. Obviously, with their receiving corps all banged up during preseason, unable to get on the field together with Eli Manning, the passing game was rusty on Monday Night. OBJ was a non-factor in that game, Brandon Marshall dropped a potential TD pass late and Sterling Shepard didn’t create much separation. Savvy bettors know not to expect what they just saw to happen the exact same way again the following week. Unlike the vast majority of the struggling offenses on the list above, there’s legitimate hope for the Giants. I expect this offense to be improved in the short term. The Eagles are at their weakest defensively in the secondary, a stop unit that is clearly vulnerable to big plays. Three different Redskins receivers caught passes of 28 yards or longer in their opener. There was more of the same last week, allowing a pair of 35+ yard passes and a 50+ yard TD run. Eagles starting cornerback Ronald Darby will be out for at least a month and safeties Jaylen Watkins and Rodney McLeod are dealing with hamstring injuries. Yes, Philly has a solid pass rush, but this is not an elite defense right now, plain and simple. Both games between these two teams last year were decided by exactly five points, the same margin of victory for their season finale in 2015. I went back over the series history from the last decade, and Philly hasn’t been favored by this many points even once! The Giants entered the season with a higher win total and a higher power rating number here in Vegas. Bottom line: expect a competitive game, start to finish, and a better showing from the Giants offense. Take the Giants. |
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09-21-17 | Rams -2 v. 49ers | 41-39 | Push | 0 | 53 h 46 m | Show | |
Take the LA Rams (#301) Let me start with an excerpt from my Monday Night Football write-up supporting the Lions over the Giants. “These are the offenses that didn’t work in Week 1: San Francisco, Seattle, Indy, Cinci, Houston along with the Jets and Giants, none of whom put up more than a single touchdown on the scoreboard. Guess what – none of those offenses worked in Week 2 either.” And that’s the crux of this bet. I circled this quote in preseason, from 12 year veteran left tackle Joe Staley, talking about the complexity of the 49ers new offense, and the team’s struggles to learn it: “I think one of the things that even I wasn’t expecting was how detailed you have to be in everything as far as the run game. Aiming points. Everyone’s got to be on the same page — running backs, linemen, receivers, everybody, for it to work.” The 49ers entered the season without a QB who threw a pass or a WR who caught a pass on the roster from last year. They’ve yet to reach the end zone. And the 49ers certainly aren’t a team with a significant home field edge these days, just 2-7 ATS at Levi Stadium since the start of the 2016 campaign. This offense isn’t working and San Fran is not a team likely to be marching up and down the field consistently anytime soon. The Rams just got run over by the Redskins, but there were many positive signs in that defeat. Todd Gurley, following the late loss: “Last year, it would have been a lot different. It would have been 27-3, instead of us, as an offense, being able to put points on the board and being able to keep our defense in it. It’s a start.” The Rams have stalwart defensive tackle Aaron Donald back on the field after his long holdout. And unlike the Niners, LA’s offense is working. Jared Goff had a 63.6 QB rating last year while averaging 5.3 yards per pass attempt. This year it’s a 103.2 QB rating and 9.8 yards per pass attempt; a HUGE difference (and a big confidence boost) for a young quarterback. The Rams got swept by San Francisco last year, the 49ers only two wins of the season. Expect LA to get a little payback on Thursday Night in a pointspread range that ensures a victory by a field goal will cash our winning bet. Take the Rams. |
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09-18-17 | Lions +3 v. Giants | 24-10 | Win | 105 | 9 h 57 m | Show | |
Take Detroit (#289) These are the offenses that didn’t work in Week 1: San Francisco, Seattle, Indy, Cinci, Houston along with the Jets and Giants, none of whom put up more than a single touchdown on the scoreboard. Guess what – none of those offenses worked in Week 2 either. The defense that shut down the G-men got torched for six touchdowns yesterday. New York has a mediocre QB in Eli Manning, an offensive line that ranks among the weaker ones in the NFL and a very banged up receiving corps, whether OBJ plays or not. And oh, by the way, this offense has gotten statistically weaker every year since Bob McAdoo arrived as the offensive coordinator; even more so since he became the head coach. All the Lions do is play close games – nine of their sixteen games last year were decided LESS than a touchdown. Matthew Stafford led the NFL in fourth quarter comebacks last year and he engineered another one in Week 1 – the Lions have shown ample character responding from adversity. Jim Caldwell’s squad won SU as road underdogs at Indy, Minnesota and New Orleans last year, and they just might have the most electrifying player on the field in rookie WR Kenny Golladay, who has been turning heads since Day 1 of training camp. Find a +3.5 and grab it! Take the Lions |
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09-17-17 | Dolphins +4 v. Chargers | Top | 19-17 | Win | 100 | 76 h 8 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Miami (#277) My initial thought on the ‘hurricane impeded’ teams in both the NFL and college was to fade them at every reasonable opportunity. And, at first glance, the Miami Dolphins certainly had the look of a team who would be negatively impacted by the weather event in South Florida, much like the Houston Texans were negatively influenced by Hurricane Harvey in their opener last week. But the knee jerk reaction – ‘fade this team’ – didn’t hold water once I started doing some digging on this game. In fact, the opposite was true – Miami is a ‘bet-on’ squad this week, plain and simple. The Dolphins coaching staff had their act together. The team charter left for LA last Friday, with players AND THEIR FAMILIES invited to leave town. They’ve been practicing at the Cowboys facility in Oxnard ever since, focused on only one thing – beating the LA Chargers. The Chargers are on a short week, and their entire focus was on beating Denver on Monday Night. In terms of ‘preparation for the opponent at hand’, Adam Gase and his staff have a significant edge. That’s not the only edge for Miami in this contest. The Chargers defense was on the field for 68 snaps against Denver, in altitude. Now they’ve got a short week to get ready for the type of speedy playmakers they didn’t see in Denver on Monday Night, and a QB protected by a much stronger offensive line than the one they saw against the Broncos. Make no mistake about it – Miami has weapons to stretch the field with Jarvis Landry, Kenny Stills, Julius Thomas and DeVante Parker. They’ve got offensive balance, with Jay Ajayi running behind that rock solid offensive line. And while Jay Cutler gives some bettors recurring nightmares, the bottom line is that Cutler knows this system well from his time under Gase in Chicago, primed to succeed in his Dolphins debut. Philip Rivers did not look comfortable at the Stub Hub center in the preseason, complaining among other things about the locations of the play clocks and the sight lines for his receivers. And when you talk about a home field edge – well, the Chargers don’t have one in a venue that is just as new to them as it is to Miami. And let’s be real – the city of LA is not excited about hosting a team from San Diego. StubHub Center seats only 27,000, yet this game is not sold out – not even close. The Rams – a team with a legit LA fan base – are kicking off across town 20 minutes later. So, let me recap. The Dolphins are power rated in the same range as the Chargers – no talent edge for the home team. Miami has a strong situational edge, the focus edge, the rest and practice edge PLUS the Chargers have no real home field edge. It’s surely worth noting that LA hasn’t put together a winning ATS record in the home favorite’s role since 2013. I expect the outright upset, but a close loss will serve our purposes just fine in this pointspread range! Big Ticket: Take the Dolphins. |
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09-17-17 | Vikings +6 v. Steelers | 9-26 | Loss | -115 | 73 h 3 m | Show | |
Take Minnesota (#273) Minnesota’s win against the Saints on Monday Night wasn’t fraudulent in the slightest. There were three key factors in play, all of which should still be in play as they travel to Pittsburgh to face the Steelers. First, Sam Bradford finally had a full, healthy offseason in the same offensive system. Bradford was under duress throughout his tenure in St Louis, playing behind a dismal offensive line and a handful of new coordinators. He struggled to pick up the offense when he was traded to Philly, then struggled to learn Chip Kelly’s complex scheme. Last year, he was traded in training camp to Minnesota. So this is really the first time in his career that Sam Bradford spent the entire offseason with the same team working on the same offense he ran last year. Guess what – it showed! Bradford was the ultimate dink and dunker last year, but he was firing away downfield on Monday Night, hitting WR’s Adam Thielen and Stefan Diggs 16 times for 250 yards! Second, Sam Bradford has at least a serviceable offensive line to throw behind. The Vikings OL last year was an injury riddled disaster area. They spent big $$ in free agency and significant draft capital to shore up the unit and their running game. That improvement was on full display in Week 1, and it was no mirage. Bradford’s quote: “When I’ve got time to sit back there and evaluate things, I’ve got all the confidence in the world that our receivers on the outside are going to win.” Third, the Vikings defense was elite last year before finally wearing down late, capable of winning games by themselves, despite a very mediocre offense. That defense sure looks elite once again, holding the Saints out of the end zone until garbage time, with five pro bowlers on that side of the football. Let’s not forget how much success Mike Zimmer’s defense has had against Ben Roethlisberger over the years. During Zimmer’s tenure as the Bengals defensive coordinator, Big Ben had a QB rating of only 81.6 in ten games against Cinci –mediocre, not elite. The Steelers, on paper, still have one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL. That was not on display in Cleveland last week, a game where the Steelers had a grand total of two scoring drives, while gaining less than 300 yards of total offense. Mike Tomlin didn’t get his regulars much playing time in August, and it showed. Stepping up in class against an elite defense here won’t help Pittsburgh win this one by margin….if they win the game at all. Take the Vikings. |
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09-17-17 | Browns +9 v. Ravens | 10-24 | Loss | -115 | 73 h 2 m | Show | |
Take Cleveland (#263) So let me get this straight. Joe Flacco missed all of preseason; one of many injured veterans for the Ravens in August. Baltimore lost nearly a dozen guys to IR in training camp, losing key bodies on both sides of the football. Flacco was VERY rusty last week, completing only nine passes. The Ravens, as a team, had only one explosive play on offense for the entire game – one of Jeremy Maclin’s two catches. They ran for only 3.7 yards per carry. And John Harbaugh’s squad produced a grand total of one touchdown on a drive longer than two yards for the entire game. And now this team is taking $$, laying more than a TD to the Browns? I’m not buying it! Yes, Baltimore’s defense generated pressure against a very suspect Cinci offensive line. And yes, that defense forced four turnovers against a QB with a long track record of failing miserably under pressure. But they were underdogs last week; transitoning to favorites this Sunday. And that makes a BIG difference, when it comes to the Baltimore Ravens. The numbers don’t lie. In their last dozen tries as favorites of more than a field goal, the Baltimore Ravens are 2-10 ATS. Six of their eight wins last year came by a TD or less. NONE of their wins in 2015 came by more than a TD. Flacco is light years away from being 100%, still dealing with a herniated disk in his back. The Ravens do not have an elite offensive line and their skill position talent base is as weak as it gets among potential playoff contenders. Yet the betting markets are looking at Baltimore’s defense and thinking it can cover pointspreads by themselves, the way the Ravens were capable of covering spreads with their D for much of the Ray Lewis era. After all, they pitched a shutout last week, and now get to face a rookie QB making his road debut. I’m not buying that argument one iota. The Ravens rebuilt their ‘D’ this past offseason – this isn’t a tried and tested unit. They just faced a team with major offensive line concerns, now facing a squad with a top tier OL. And, oh, by the way, Baltimore has to win this game by more than a TD to cover the spread, something they’ve repeatedly struggled to do. Count me in as a Cleveland Browns believer. They were every bit as good as Pittsburgh last week, losing the game only because of a blocked punt TD; not something I would expect to see again in Week 2. DeShone Kizer came from a bigtime college program at Notre Dame, and showed great poise in Week 1, despite taking numerous hits. WR Corey Coleman showed playmaking ability, something the Browns didn’t have last year. The OL wasn’t great in the opener, but it’s a ‘Night and Day’ stronger unit than last year. The Browns defense was great against Pittsburgh, stepping down in class here. This is, quite simply, too many points for a Ravens team that doesn’t win many games by margin to lay. And Cleveland was so bad last year that there is clearly residual value to support them in early season action here in 2017. Expect a competitive contest. Take the Browns. |
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09-10-17 | Colts v. Rams -3.5 | 9-46 | Win | 100 | 125 h 33 m | Show | |
Take the LA Rams (#472) The Colts aren’t just weak without Andrew Luck behind center. My numbers show Indy as the #31 team in the NFL with Scott Tolzien as their starting quarterback, like he will be here in Week 1. Tolzien might have been the weakest backup in the NFL. Now he’s the weakest starter. He started one game for the Colts last year. They lost that game 28-7; Tolzien had more interceptions than touchdowns. Tolzien also had a couple of starts with Green Bay back in 2013. The Packers lost both games that he started and finished by double digit margins as well. But it’s not just the Scott Tolzien factor. Indy’s offensive line allowed 44 sacks last year; bottom five in the NFL. That offensive line has not been upgraded in the offseason. Neither has their depleted receiving corps. And defensively, this squad has gone through a complete offseason rebuild, with as many as seven new starters expected on the field in LA on Sunday. Long term, that’s probably a good thing for a D that tied for dead last in the NFL on a yards per play basis last year. Short term, we’re talking about a completely rebuilt stop unit that will inevitably lack chemistry. Their pass rush ranks among the weakest in the NFL and their rebuilt secondary is a major question mark with a pair of rookies penciled in as starters, now that pro bowl CB Vontae Davis has been ruled out for the opener. This is not a team primed to win many games right now, arguably my #1 ‘bet-against’ team in the NFL heading into the regular season. The Rams went 3-1 in September last year before the injury bug started to bite and the bottom fell out. No surprise here if LA starts strong again in the Sean McVay era as well. The Rams have strong defensive personnel and coordinator Wade Phillips is known for quick turnarounds at previous stops. Their offensive line was upgraded in the offseason as well, giving Jared Goff a fighting chance to develop into the elite QB that the Rams thought he would be when they took him #1 overall. Bottom line: this is a cheap price to lay to bet against the Colts! Take the Rams. |
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09-10-17 | Eagles v. Redskins | 30-17 | Win | 100 | 121 h 29 m | Show | |
Take Philadelphia (#459) Last year, Washington was the better of these two teams. This year, the pendulum has clearly shifted – the Redskins are the likely last place squad in the NFC East, while the Eagles are an ascending team on the rise. That makes this near pick ‘em price range for the Week 1 matchup a clear choice for this bettor – the Eagles are worthy of support in a game I expect them to win. The Redskins have all kinds of issues on offense. Statistically, Kirk Cousins has been a Top 10 QB in each of the last two seasons, but he lost his top two receivers in the offseason; Pierre Garcon and DeSean Jackson. I’m not convinced that Terrelle Pryor and Josh Doctson can fill those big shoes. This team averaged 6.4 yards per play on offense last year, #2 in the NFL. They were also #2 in yards per pass attempt and in the top quartile at yards per rush. Yet despite those impressive offensive numbers, the Skins still weren’t a playoff team. And the only way those offensive numbers are trending in 2017 is down! Defensively, this squad has major problems. They were bottom quartile of the NFL in yards per play allowed last year, struggling all season to generate a pass rush and to stop the run. The defensive line has been completely rebuilt, with three new starters in 2017. And it’s not like the Redskins enjoy any sort of tremendous home field edge; a team that has only enjoyed one winning season on this field since 2012. The Eagles made a handful of ‘win now’ moves in August, most notably acquiring starting cornerback Ronald Darby from Buffalo. After getting swept by the Redskins in each of the last two seasons, this game truly is circled on Philly’s schedule – they’re clearly the superior team heading into the campaign; worthy of a wager in a pointspread range where a SU win equates with an ATS victory. Take the Eagles. |
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09-10-17 | Raiders v. Titans +1 | Top | 26-16 | Loss | -115 | 458 h 44 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Tennessee (#464) I could literally write a book about why Tennessee is such a great bet in a pick ‘em price range in Week 1 at home against the Raiders. But I’m going to abbreviate and keep this one short. There are two basic components: #1: Tennessee is really good. The Titans went 8-4 down the stretch last year; including wins over playoff bound foes like Green Bay, Houston and Kansas City. Their home field was particularly strong, winning and covering each of their last four. This year’s Titans squad is primed to be even better than last year’s team. A defense that forced only 18 takeaways in 16 games last season brought in ‘instant impact’ playmaker Logan Ryan to shore up their secondary. And the Corey Davis/Taywan Taylor duo taken in the draft have upgraded Marcus Mariota’s weaponry. Throw in an elite offensive line and a strong tier of running backs, and the Titans are primed to build off last year’s success, starting right here in Week 1. The Titans lost at home to Minnesota in Week 1 last year and they followed that up with a Week 3 home loss to the Raiders thanks to a +2 turnover margin and a late defensive stand. Tennessee ended up missing the playoffs due to tiebreakers because of those two losses. There’s a legitimate sense of urgency for the Titans to come out of the gate with a win this time around, good news for us in this pick ‘em price range. And #2, there are ample reasons to expect the Raiders to come out sluggish in Week 1. Obviously, an early start game back East requires a ratchet to the system – all four of their preseason games were played at night out West. Oakland committed only 14 giveaways last year, a number primed to rise significantly. And the Raiders 6-0 SU mark in games decided by less than a TD is also primed for regression. Perhaps most importantly, the Raiders don’t match up well with Tennessee. Oakland’s biggest weakness heading into the season is their front seven on defense, very questionable against the run. This defense ranked next to last in the NFL, allowing six yards per play last year. Their pass rush couldn’t reach the QB, ranked dead last in sacks, and their run defense was bottom quartile in yards per rush allowed. Neither area was properly addressed in the offseason, and both their lack of pass rush and their struggles defending the run are likely to be problematic here. Oakland pulled off a bunch of last minute comebacks last year; very difficult to repeat when it comes to a Week 1 matchup against a talented and motivated foe. Big Ticket: Take the Tennessee Titans. |
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02-05-17 | Patriots v. Falcons +3 | 34-28 | Loss | -100 | 100 h 0 m | Show | |
Take Atlanta (#102) I’m not going to bore you with a three page write-up listing every statistic that these two teams have compiled over the course of their first 18 games. No, this write-up is going to cut to the chase, focusing on the key factors pointing towards Falcons pointspread success in the big game. It’s not hard to make a case for the Patriots; the clear ‘public’ side in this contest. You’ve got the best coach in NFL history and a truly elite Hall of Fame QB playing at the top of his game. The Pats have been here before, many times, a team that has proven they can handle the pressure in these type of environments. So why is this line only sitting at New England -3? Because Atlanta is VERY live, that’s why! Dan Quinn is no rookie head coach for games like this one. Quinn was the defensive coordinator in Seattle for the Seahawks back-2-back Super Bowl appearances against the Broncos and Patriots, a game where he matched wits with Belichick rather well, in my opinion. The Patriots have played six Super Bowls in the Brady/Belichick era. Their LARGEST margin of victory in those six Super Bowls has been four points and they’re 0-fer ATS as favorites. It’s surely worth noting that New England played lousy football coming off a bye on both previous occasions this season, losing outright at home to Seattle and looking completely out of sync in their playoff win over Houston. The New England juggernaut status is not based on margin of victory in February games! Atlanta’s full season defensive stats are below average, based on just about any set of metrics that you can find. New England comes into the game with the #1 overall scoring defense. Both of those stats are lying, yet they’re the stats that the markets have used to install the Patriots as three point chalk. The Patriots strength of schedule was the weakest in the NFL this year, facing one bottom feeder after the next as well as numerous ‘right team at the right time’ situations. They did not face a single QB ranked in the Top 10 in QBR all year. In this game, however, they’ll be facing an offense with the best yards per play ranking of any team in the last five years, a team that outscored the second best offense in the NFL by more than 70 points. I know they shut down Big Ben and the Steelers in the AFC Championship game. Matt Ryan and the Falcons offense is a completely different animal! Atlanta gained a whopping 1.2 yards per play higher than the league average, finishing a full half yard better PER PLAY than any other team, the type of production that New England just hasn’t seen all year. Julio Jones gets the headlines as the Falcons top playmaker. The Pats had great success double teaming Antonio Brown, Pittsburgh’s top WR weapon, in the AFC Championship Game. But we’ve seen teams focus on stopping Jones before, and he spent several weeks dealing with a myriad of injuries, playing at less than 100%. The Falcons offense didn’t skip a beat, with Matt Ryan truly comfortable in the second year running Kyle Shanahan’s offense. With Mohamed Sanu, Taylor Gabriel, Tevin Coleman, Devonta Freeman among others, this offense is primed to explode once again on the fast track of Reliant Stadium. Then there’s the issue of the Falcons defense and those below average season long stats. Dan Quinn is a defensive guy. The Falcons have drafted defense in each of the last two seasons, with five rookies or second year players starting on defense. No surprise, then, that their early season defensive numbers were spotty at best. But that defense has improved by leaps and bounds down the stretch. They completely shut down Super Bowl winner Russell Wilson and Seattle. They completely shut down Super Bowl winner Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay, a game that was 31-0 before the Packers scored a point. In fact, in eight games since their Week 11 bye, the Falcons have allowed 21 or less six times; a stop unit that simply isn’t getting the credit they deserve. It’s Matt Ryan’s time. He’s in the midst of a postseason run rivaling that of Joe Flacco when the Ravens won the Super Bowl four years ago. There are several differences though. Ryan is the better QB, as the stats clearly show. Ryan has better weapons than Flacco had in Baltimore. Roger Goodell is not going to have to face the awkward moment of shaking hands with Brady and Belichick after this one, because the Falcons are the better of these two teams! Take the Falcons
Super Bowl Prop Report: Because lines and the props available vary dramatically from one sportsbook to the next, I’m concentrating on concepts more than specific wagers -- the players and things we want to be betting on, and those we want to be betting against. I’ve listed bets that I have personally made over the last week. All prices are current and available at a minimum of one major offshore sportsbook (Bookmaker, Greek, Pinny, 5Dimes, Bovada or Jazz) as of Wednesday morning. Like most ‘sharp’ bettors, I have no hesitation laying some juice with these props – it’s the ‘recreational’ players that are looking for the big ‘plus price’ returns, as always trying to bet a little to win a lot. Player Props: Chris Hogan Receiving Yards OVER 59.5 (-120) The full season numbers show Hogan with only 38 catches for 680 yards. Those numbers lie. Hogan has become a much bigger facet in the Patriots offense since Rob Gronkowski got hurt, with 494 receiving yards in his last four games. He’s Tom Brady’s ‘go-to’ weapon right now, and the markets are still pricing him too low. Mohamed Sanu Receiving Yards OVER 49.5 (-125) The Patriots defensive gameplan throughout the Bill Belichick era has been to focus on shutting down their opponent’s top weapon. We saw them double team Antonio Brown throughout their win over Pittsburgh in the AFC Championship Game. We can expect that for Julio Jones here, leaving Sanu as the most likely beneficiary of the Pats defensive gameplan. Mohamed Sanu Total Catches OVER 4 (-120) The Patriots defensive gameplan throughout the Bill Belichick era has been to focus on shutting down their opponent’s top weapon. We saw them double team Antonio Brown throughout their win over Pittsburgh in the AFC Championship Game. We can expect that for Julio Jones here, leaving Sanu as the most likely beneficiary of the Pats defensive gameplan. Matt Bryant Total Field Goals OVER 1.5 (-130) The Falcons score points in bunches, by far the highest scoring offense in the NFL this year, and by far, the most productive offense on a yards-per-play basis. They’ll get their fair share of scoring chances here. But converting those chances into touchdowns won’t be easy against the elite red zone defense of New England, offering Matt Bryant a prime chance to cash this Over 1.5 Field Goals bet. General Props: Will There Be a Defensive or Special Teams Touchdown? No (-180, still available, good up to -200) Don’t expect many turnovers. The Falcons and Patriots tied for the league low with only 11 giveaways each this year. Tom Brady and Matt Ryan aren’t making ‘pick six’ type mistakes. Fumble return TD’s are few and far between in the NFL, a true rarity. And the only special teams TD that either team scored all year was Dion Lewis’ kick return in the playoffs against the Texans. This prop is cheap, worthy of a wager up to -200. Will Either Team Convert a Fourth Down? Yes (-200) Somebody is going to be behind in the fourth quarter of this game. Somebody is going to be facing a fourth an inches in the red zone. Both teams went for it on fourth downs more than the average squad (especially the average playoff teams, who weren’t trailing in the fourth quarter all season), and both team were in the Top 10 in conversion percentage. The key here is that I trust BOTH of these offenses to have a well above average chance to convert on any fourth down conversion tries. Result of the First Coaches Challenge? Play Overturned (-115) Bill Belichick is no fool. Neither is Dan Quinn, two head coaches who aren’t here by accident. Both coaches value their timeouts, and neither coach wastes challenges – ever! Between the two, they had a grand total of ONE coach’s challenge that failed during the entire regular season. Bet that neither coach takes the red flag out of their pocket unless the replay is VERY clear that the play needs to be overturned. -130 is a cheap price to lay! 3rd Quarter to Be Higher Scoring Than 1st Quarter (-130) The Patriots have played in six Super Bowls in the Belichick/Brady era. They’ve yet to score a single first quarter point in any of those games. I’m not expecting a shootout from the get-go here, but once these offenses find a rhythm and have a chance to make adjustments at halftime, I would not be shocked in the slightest if the third quarter is rather explosive….. Falcons -10.5 (+500) If you read my write-up for the side, you’ll understand why this ‘plus price’ prop stands out. No surprise here if the Falcons end up winning this game by margin…… |
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01-22-17 | Steelers +6 v. Patriots | 17-36 | Loss | -105 | 79 h 38 m | Show | |
Take Pittsburgh (#313) The sportsbooks got their asses kicked in the opening round of the NFL Playoffs, with all four favorites winning and covering. The books described last weekend in the NFL as one of the worst in HISTORY, with the public cashing in with both favorites on Saturday and both underdogs on Sunday. Much like in politics, in the pendulum swings back and forth when it comes to betting results. And, after two straight PLAYOFF weekends where the books got absolutely destroyed, I can only look towards the contrarian sides this week, betting AGAINST the public. Even without a contrarian argument, it’s not hard to make a strong case for Pittsburgh, because New England is an over-rated, over-valued commodity right now! My anti-Pats argument starts with one simple concept – strength of schedule. Look closely at the Patriots schedule this season. You’ll see one bottom feeder after the next. New England did play five games against opposing playoff teams. They beat Miami twice, once early in the season before the Dolphins found their mojo, the other in Week 17 after Miami had just clinched their first playoff spot since 2008. They beat the same Steelers team they’ll face on Sunday, except for two key issues – Landry Jones was behind center that day, not future Hall of Famer Ben Roethlisberger AND the Steelers weren’t yet starting James Harrison and Bud Dupree on defense, moves that transformed their stop unit down the stretch. The Pats beat Houston on a short week when the Texans were coming off a huge playoff revenge win over KC. That’s the four victories against ‘quality’ competition, and yes, all four come with an asterisk. Even last week’s win against Houston doesn’t stand out as a win against an elite foe – the Texans were, by far, the weakest team still standing after Wild Card Weekend. The game that stands out to me – the only time New England played a quality foe at full strength on a normal week – was the Pats Week 10 matchup at home against Seattle. The Pats were laying a TD at home. Their defense repeatedly stopped Seattle near the goal line, forcing four Seahawks field goal attempts. But Tom Brady didn’t throw a touchdown pass, even with Rob Gronkowski still healthy at that point of the season, and the Pats lost at home in SU fashion. Conventional numbers show how weak New England’s schedule was this year; not a battle tested team. The advanced metric numbers show it too – New England’s schedule was ranked #32 out of 32 NFL teams according to the Sagarin Ratings. And my numbers show it as well! I go through the schedule for each team, using MY power rating number for their opponent on the week the game was played, a strategy that recognizes Landry Jones, not Big Ben, as New England’s regular season opponent. Based on my subjective numbers, the Patriots strength of schedule this year ranked DEAD LAST among playoff teams by a fairly wide margin! So what does all of that mean? Simple – it means that the Pats are over-rated, over-valued and prime ‘bet-against’ material as they step up in class on Sunday. Let’s not forget how badly New England has destroyed sports books this year – the most public team in the NFL has gone a ridiculous 14-3 ATS, the single best pointspread team in the NFL as well. There are no bargains to support New England at this stage of the campaign, a team that is primed for a tough battle as they step up in class. The Steelers mediocre full season numbers on defense are irrelevant now; a stop unit that has improved by leaps and bounds since Harrison and Dupree joined the starting linebacking corps. This defense was good enough to carry the team to victory ON THE ROAD last week in a game where the offense didn’t produce a single touchdown! It’s the same story with the Steelers offense; full season stats that lie, because Big Ben and his weapons weren’t healthy over the first half of the campaign. Despite some red zone concerns, down the stretch, this offense was nothing short of elite, and Le’Veon Bell has proven very clearly that he’s built to win games in January. Pittsburgh is every bit as good as New England; worthy of support in this inflated pointspread range. Take the Steelers. |
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01-22-17 | Packers v. Falcons -4 | 21-44 | Win | 100 | 75 h 4 m | Show | |
Take Atlanta (#312) The sportsbooks got their asses kicked in the opening round of the NFL Playoffs, with all four favorites winning and covering. The books described last weekend in the NFL as one of the worst in HISTORY, with the public cashing in with both favorites on Saturday and both underdogs on Sunday. Much like in politics, in the pendulum swings back and forth when it comes to betting results. And, after two straight PLAYOFF weekends where the books got absolutely destroyed, I can only look towards the contrarian sides this week, betting AGAINST the public. Even without a contrarian argument, it’s not hard to make a strong case for Atlanta; a team with legitimate edges on both sides of the football. Let me start with the Falcons offense matched up against the Green Bay defense. Kyle Shanahan has gotten all kinds of head coaching buzz this offseason and is still live for the 49ers job. He deserves it! The Falcons offensive coordinator has been nothing short of brilliant this season. The Falcons had the #1 offense in the NFL during the regular season. They gained a whopping 1.2 yards per play higher than the league average, finishing a full half yard better PER PLAY than any other team. The Falcons just picked apart Seattle’s elite defense: 28 first downs, 36 points, only three punts – two of which came during garbage time in the fourth quarter when running clock was more important than getting more points. Even with Julio Jones held in check, Matt Ryan repeatedly found Tyler Gabriel and Mohammed Sanu downfield, while seven different receivers caught at least two passes. Tevin Coleman and Devanta Freeman combined for more than 100 yards on the ground, averaging more than four yards per carry. And it’s surely worth noting that since their opening day home loss to Tampa, the Falcons have scored 48, 30, 33, 38, 28, 41, 38 and 36 points in their last eight tries on this field. The Packers defense had little chance to get stops down the stretch last week against Dallas; an exhausted, banged up unit. Safety Morgan Burnett may not play while CB Quentin Rollins is still going through concussion protocol, questionable at best, bad news for a secondary that has really struggled on the highway. This defense won’t force turnovers against a red hot Matt Ryan, and they’re anything but fresh, playing their third game on the road in the last four weeks; in ‘must win’ mode since Thanksgiving. I’m firmly convinced that Atlanta is getting into the 30’s here (at least!). The only question is whether Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense can trade points with the Falcons. On paper, Atlanta’s defense looks vulnerable, ranked #27 by Football Outsiders advanced metric numbers. And for a good portion of the season, that defense was vulnerable. Head coach Dan Quinn was Pete Carroll’s defensive coordinator in Seattle, and he’s crafted the Falcons defense much like that of the Seahawks. Quinn went young, with five of his back seven starters in their first or second season in the league; going with talent and potential over experience. That method resulted in plenty of growing pains. It’s also produced real dividends down the stretch – four of Atlanta’s last five opponents have been held to 20 points or less, while the Falcons aggressiveness and confidence seems to be getting better by the week. In my opinion, this defense is SIGNIFICANTLY better right now than their full season numbers would indicate. It’s been a great run for Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, but Green Bay keeps losing key weapons. Once again, it doesn’t look as if Jordy Nelson is going to be able to suit up this week. His replacement as the #1 WR, Davante Adams, has been unable to practice all week, dealing with a nasty ankle injury. Backups Geronimo Allison and Jeff Janis are also dealing with injury concerns. I do NOT expect Rodgers to hit five different receivers for gains of 25 yards or longer this week the way he did against the Cowboys, and I do NOT expect Rodgers and the Packers to be capable of trading points with Atlanta for four quarters. Take the Falcons. |
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01-15-17 | Packers v. Cowboys -4 | 34-31 | Loss | -115 | 52 h 12 m | Show | |
Take Dallas (#308) I could do this write-up in five words: “Jordy Nelson matters. A lot!” Aaron Rodgers has been the best quarterback in the NFL down the stretch. The Packers are 7-0 SU, 6-1 ATS since their four game midseason losing streak; a stretch in which their defense allowed 31+ all four times. Their lone non-cover during that span came in a game where they led by 17 in the second half at Soldier Field in Chicago, but fell asleep defensively. Rodgers is in the midst of a truly remarkable 22-0 TD-INT run over his last eight games; obviously the key to the Packers success down the stretch. But without Jordy Nelson available, that impressive run is in serious jeopardy here, even against a Cowboys defense that only intercepted nine passes all year. Look no further than last year for a clear illustration of Nelson’s importance stretching the field and taking coverage away from Green Bay’s second and third options. Randall Cobb averaged 10.5 yards per reception for the season. Davante Adams averaged only 9.7 ypc. This year, on the other side from Nelson, Adams averaged 13.3 yards per catch, with 17 receptions longer than 20 yards and 12 TD’s. Those same opportunities will NOT be available for him here as the primary focus of the Cowboys defense. After five straight games scoring 30+, I’m expecting a major dropoff from Green Bay offensively without their best downfield weapon. The Packers defense is not primed to stop Dallas. They had no chance in the first meeting, a 30-16 Cowboys win at Lambeau that was every bit as dominating as the final score would indicate. Dallas ran for 191 yards in that game at nearly six yards per carry, with their pro bowl offensive linemen completely overwhelming the Packers front seven on defense. That’s not likely to change here. The Cowboys offensive line is still dominant, and relatively fresh and healthy off their bye week. Ezekiel Elliott never hit any sort of ‘rookie wall’, just as dominating in December as he was in September. Since their Week 1 loss to the Giants, Dallas averaged more than 30 points per GAME at home, and there’s little reason to think they won’t be able to approach or exceed that total here. What about the Cowboys inexperience at quarterback with rookie Dak Prescott? Here are two quotes. First, former NFL QB Matt Hasselbeck; a quote that I agree with 100%: “The [Cowboys rookies] don't even know what they don't even know. They're so naïve it'll help tremendously. ... It's kind of freeing when you don't know how big the moment is. They probably think 'Oh this is just the playoffs.' The Cowboys were on national TV the whole season this year.” Then, there’s this confidence inducing quote from Dak Prescott: “Can’t really say I’ve ever truly put it in my head that I’m a rookie that I can’t do something. I’ve never put that stigma on myself. So I’m excited and ready to go. … I want to go where those guys are. I want to win multiple Super Bowls in this league. So it’s going to be great going against those guys, seeing those guys on the other side and just watching them and knowing I have a good team, and a team that can beat them.” I concur! Take the Cowboys. |
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01-08-17 | Dolphins v. Steelers -10 | 12-30 | Win | 100 | 48 h 11 m | Show | |
Take Pittsburgh (#106) There are all whole host of reasons to bet against the Miami Dolphins on Sunday, a playoff game with ‘Blowout’ written all over it! Let’s start with the most obvious stat – strength of schedule. Dating back to when the current divisional and playoff formats were established, back in 2002, teams with the tougher regular season schedule (based on Sagarin numbers) are 40-16 SU, 40-15-1 ATS in the Wild Card Round of the playoffs. With a differential of 10 spots or higher, that ATS mark improves to 23-4 SU, 22-4-1 ATS. The Steelers ranked #11 in NFL SOS this year. The Dolphins ranked #27. That’s a great angle, but there’s far more to this handicap than just one long term trend. Pittsburgh is the much fresher squad. Sure, they played last week, but all of their key guys sat out, a defacto bye week. Miami, on the other hand, tried against New England last Sunday. They still lost the game by three touchdowns, attempting to step up in class against a quality foe. Miami beat Pittsburgh 30-15 back in Week 6. Ben Roethlisberger was hurt, requiring surgery after the game. Le’Veon Bell was just getting back into rhythm following his suspension. And the Steelers defense was an injury riddled mess, allowing Jay Ajayi to run for 200 yards against them. That was then, this is now. Pittsburgh is the relatively healthy team now; in much better shape on both sides of the football compared to where they were three months ago. Miami is not. On defense, Dolphins LB Koa Misi, S Reshad Jones and S Isa Abdul-Quddus are all on IR. CB Byron Maxwell has missed the last three games and hasn’t been able to get back on the practice field yet, leaving the potential for the likes of Tony Lippett and Xavien Howard to try to contain one of the more potent passing offenses in the NFL. And Miami has lost their starting QB, Ryan Tannehill, and their starting center, Mike Pouncey, a pro bowl caliber talent. Backup Matt Moore lit up the Jets and the Bills, but struggled mightily against the Patriots last week. I’d trust more far Moore in a favorite’s role, but if Miami falls behind (as they should as ten point underdogs), his gunslinger mentality has the potential to make a bad situation even worse. The Dolphins run defense collapsed down the stretch, allowing 5.6 yards per carry over their final six ballgames. Given their injuries in the secondary, the Dolphins pass defense has to be considered ‘suspect’; a unit that has allowed more than 600 yards on 8.4 yards per pass, giving up six TD’s without an interception over the past two weeks. Pittsburgh is primed to march up and down the field all afternoon. The Dolphins aren’t. Player after player from the Steelers defense has talked about their chance for redemption after Ajayi carved them up in the heat and humidity of South Florida. It’s surely worth noting that since his three ‘outburst’ games in October, Ajayi has rushed for more than 80 yards only once in eight games since, while notching only two running TD’s over the entire back half of the campaign. Warm weather Miami isn’t built to hang tough in frigid conditions, with gametime temperatures expected in the teens. They tried to practice with a frozen ball this week, but temps in the 70’s and 80’s didn’t let the ball stay frozen long. This is a ‘happy to be here’ vs. a ‘hungry for the Super Bowl’ matchup, a blowout waiting to happen. Take the Steelers. |
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01-07-17 | Raiders +4 v. Texans | Top | 14-27 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 38 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Oakland (#101) I have no hesitation betting against the Houston Texans with a Big Ticket sized wager in a game where they’ll have to win by margin in order to cover the pointspread. Let me start with a Bill Barnwell quote from ESPN.com: “By most advanced metrics, the Texans are one of the worst playoff teams in recent history. They finished 29th in DVOA, falling between the Rams and 49ers, both of whom fired their head coaches this season. Their minus-49 point differential is the fourth-worst figure for a playoff team since the league went to its current divisional structure in 2002.” But it’s far more than stats that have me stepping up my wager to Big Ticket status fading Houston in this pointspread range! Let’s start with the most obvious stat – strength of schedule. Dating back to 2002, teams with the tougher regular season schedule (based on Sagarin numbers) are 40-16 SU, 40-15-1 ATS in the Wild Card Round of the playoffs. With a differential of 10 spots or higher, that ATS mark improves to 23-4 SU, 22-4-1 ATS. The Raiders ranked #4 in NFL SOS this year. The Texans ranked #18. Houston beat two playoff teams all year. They had a HUGE revenge matchup with the Chiefs in Week 2, a game where JJ Watt dominated. Watt, of course, is out for the year now. And they beat the Lions at home in October by seven, a hotly contested game. It’s surely worth noting that those same Lions faced three playoff foes over the last three weeks and got smacked around by all of them, far worse than what Houston was able to do. The Texans lost SU to every other playoff team they faced. And five of their last six wins overall have come by five points or less, not a team that is building margins even against lesser competition. Then there’s the Brock Osweiler factor. Osweiler finished the regular season with a 72.2 QB Rating. Among full time NFL starters, only Ryan Fitzpatrick was worse. The Texans faithful gave their loudest ovation of the year when Osweiler was benched for Tom Savage against the Jaguars three weeks ago. And, after Savage guided them to another win against the Bengals the following week, he suffered a concussion at Tennessee last Sunday, forcing Osweiler back into action. So, we’ve got one of the worst QB’s in the NFL, playing in front of a home crowd who has booed him off the field repeatedly. That QB just got benched, forced back into the lineup only because of injury. The Raiders beat Osweiler already this year and they beat him last year as well – a 15-12 Raiders win in Denver, that sparked the return of Peyton Manning for the Broncos run to the Super Bowl. And how confident can this Texans team really be after losing their playoff opener at home 30-0 to the Chiefs last year – another playoff loss and this team becomes the new Bengals! The betting markets are obviously not enamored with the prospect of a rookie QB in Connor Cook, getting his first career start on the road in the playoffs against a quality defense – hence this inflated pointspread. It’s a situation that hasn’t happened even once before in the 50+ years of the Super Bowl era. That being said, I’ve got to talk about the Dallas Cowboys. When Tony Romo got hurt in Week 3 of the preseason on the heels of an earlier injury to backup QB Kellen Moore, the conventional wisdom was that Dallas was in trouble. But an unheralded rookie QB drafted in the fourth round, Dak Prescott, came in and guided the team to a 13-3 record, best in the NFC. How did Prescott do it? Simple – he had an elite offensive line to protect him. He had a strong running game to take pressure off him. And he had a strong receiving corps who could make tough catches for him. That’s exactly what Connor Cook has in Oakland. The Raiders have three pro bowlers on their offensive line. They have Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree to catch passes downfield. They’ve got rookie speedster DeAndre Washington and beefy Latavius Murray creating a nice ‘Thunder & Lightning’ combo in the backfield. Cook is no Derek Carr, but Oakland wouldn’t be an underdog if Carr was playing. Then again, they shouldn’t be an underdog here—the betting markets, as they often do, have overreacted. So, can Connor Cook play a lick? Michigan State went 13-1, 11-2 and 12-2 in his three years as the Spartans starter. This year, without him, they went 3-9. Michael Crabtree: "Connor (Cook) is, I can't wait to see him play this week.” Michigan State head coach Mark Dantonio: “First of all, Connor has got a huge upside. He's played on a big stage. He was the Rose Bowl MVP when he was a sophomore. He was the MVP in the Big 10 Championship Game, just things of that nature. He's been in the spotlight. I know it's an elevated level of play and it's all relative, but he's played on a big stage and he's had a lot of anxiety, big-game jitters, and things like that, and he's played very well in those games. That's going to serve him as well this weekend." More Dantonio: “He's got a big arm. He can throw you open. He's a big guy, as they all probably are in that league, he's 6-4 plus, probably 230. But he's got a live arm. I think he prepares very well. He was very particular in terms of everything," Dantonio said. "He wanted to be right. Good at overcoming mistakes, that's as big as anything. He threw an interception and bounced back from that, and continued to play on through it. I don't think he's going to be intimidated by the scope of the game. That hasn't been a problem for him when he was here. I expect him to play very well." The Raiders didn’t win 12 games this year after more than a decade of futility by accident. They didn’t go 7-2 SU away from home by accident. No, they’re probably not Super Bowl contenders with Connor Cook behind center, but they’re better than Houston on any field. Khalil Mack: "Win or go home so it's...time (to step up). Getting ready to go down there (to Houston) and have our best game of the year." Big Ticket: Take the Raiders. |
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01-01-17 | Cardinals -6 v. Rams | 44-6 | Win | 100 | 72 h 27 m | Show | |
Take Arizona (#325) Last week, the Rams were in position to snap their five game losing streak, leading lowly San Francisco by two TD’s in the fourth quarter. At home. It was the first game over the last month that LA had been competitive, losing by three or more scores in each of their previous four contests. Here’s the quote from cornerback Trumaine Johnson: “The last few possessions, it seemed like we gave up. The whole team, including myself." I was no Jeff Fisher fan, but this is substitute teacher time in LA. Interim head coach John Fassel is not a guy who the players have rallied around. They’ve got a rookie QB, and a defense that has shown plenty of ‘quit’ in recent weeks. The Rams lack the requisite leadership on the field and in the locker room to play competitive football in a meaningless season finale. One of Arizona’s most disappointing losses of the season came at home against the Rams in Week 4 in a ‘circle the wagons’ game following their 1-2 star, at a time when LA was surging. The Rams hit a big play TD to Brian Quick, and a Tavon Austin punt return set up their second score – it’s not like the offense marched up and down the field. Arizona won the yardage battle by a 420-288 margin. But the Cardinals committed five turnovers and created only one. It’s a divisional loss they still remember. ‘Zona came to play last week at Seattle, showing no signs of quit despite being eliminated from playoff contention. This is Carson Palmer’s first trip back to the Coliseum since his blowout win in the Rose Bowl over Oklahoma to win a national title for USC, and he’s looking forward to his return. Bruce Arians is coming back too – unlike their counterparts, this is not a franchise in disarray. Expect a road win by a TD or more. Take the Cardinals. |
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01-01-17 | Raiders +1.5 v. Broncos | Top | 6-24 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 27 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Oakland (#331) I’m going to start this write-up by talking about the Dallas Cowboys. When Tony Romo got hurt in Week 3 of the preseason on the heels of an earlier injury to backup QB Kellen Moore, the conventional wisdom was that Dallas was in trouble. But an unheralded rookie QB drafted in the fourth round, Dak Prescott, came in and guided the team to a 13-2 record, best in the NFC. How did Prescott do it? Simple – he had an elite offensive line to protect him. He had a strong running game to take pressure off him. And he had a strong receiving corps who could make tough catches for him. That’s exactly what Matt McGloin has in Oakland. The Raiders have three pro bowlers on their offensive line. They ran for 210 yards against the Colts last week, with rookie speedster DeAndre Washington and beefy Latavius Murray creating a nice ‘Thunder & Lightning’ combo in the backfield. And McGloin is neither hopeless nor useless, as so many backup QB’s are. He started eight games as a rookie in 2013 and he’s been a rock solid performer in preseason action in each of the last two years. No, he’s no Derek Carr, but Oakland wouldn’t be an underdog if Carr was playing. Then again, they shouldn’t be an underdog here—the betting markets, as they often do, have overreacted to the injury. Oakland is coming to play this week – this is not a ‘struggle to focus’ game. A win here and they capture the AFC West crown and a first round bye. Jack Del Rio certainly isn’t taking his foot off the gas pedal: “Things happen in this game. It’s all about the team. It’s all about us moving on with the next opportunity and pulling together as a group of men and being unselfish and sacrificing for each other. It doesn’t change. It doesn’t change regardless of who it is. It’s about the team. It’s about us winning. That’s not in any way meant to be insensitive. You always show love and appreciation for anybody who was banged up, but the team does carry on. That’s what we do.” The Broncos are also being priced incorrectly in the betting markets right now. Last year’s Super Bowl winner is now in a meaningless Week 17 affair, already eliminated from playoff contention. Is Denver capable of digging deep and fighting till the clock reads 0:00? I wouldn’t bet on it! The Broncos have a grand total of two wins in the last two months. One came at Jacksonville, when the Jags were at their worst; a game that Denver didn’t win as much as Jacksonville lost. The other came at New Orleans – the game where the Saints scored the game winning touchdown in the closing seconds, only to see the extra point blocked and returned for 2. It’s not like Gary Kubiak’s team has played good football and come up just short. They’ve played bad football – an offensive line that can’t open holes, a QB and receivers who aren’t on the same page and a defense living off their impressive early season stats without bringing the same level of execution here into December. Wrong team favored! Big Ticket: Take the Raiders |
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01-01-17 | Ravens +1 v. Bengals | 10-27 | Loss | -110 | 69 h 3 m | Show | |
Take Baltimore (#305) My clients and I got down our bets against Cincinnati early last week, cashing with the Texans when they were still in the pick ‘em or -1 range against the Bengals. And while Cincinnati played a notch or two better on defense than I expected in that ballgame, I have no hesitation fading Marvin Lewis’ squad in another game that they’re going to need the SU win in order to cover the pointspread. Let me start with an excerpt from last week’s write-up, with the numbers adjusted to reflect current realities: “In this pointspread range, fighting hard isn’t enough – the Bengals have to WIN. And, as we saw very clearly in their home loss to Pittsburgh last Sunday, when it comes to digging down deep and finding a way to steal a tight game, Cinci isn’t very capable. The Bengals beat the Jets by one point on opening day. Since that time, they are 0-5 in games decided by less than a TD, unable to pull out any tight victories. “Since that win over the Jets on opening day, Cinci has notched four other victories. Two came against the winless Browns. One came against the Eagles in the midst of a 2-9 slide. The other came against Miami, when the Dolphins were off to a 1-4 start, playing on a short week, on the road, with an inexperienced coaching staff. In other words, the Bengals really don’t have a single signature win this year, stepping up in class against a quality foe.” As we saw in the loss to Houston, the Bengals offense right now just isn’t capable of moving the football on a consistent basis. They won’t have Tyler Eifert or AJ Green again this week. Top two backs Giovanni Bernard and Jeremy Hill are both hurt. Offensive guard Clint Boling just joined many of his teammates on IR. A banged up team that has been to the playoffs in each of the last five seasons, coming off back-2-back frustrating late season losses is not primed to bring their ‘A’ game here. Andy Dalton, following last week’s loss, showing lots of ‘well, that’s just the way its been going’ mentality: "The way this season's gone, when we've needed to make a play, we haven't been able to do it. It's not one thing that's caused it. It's just the way things have gone this year. It's kind of been how our season's been, and it's unfortunate it's been that way." Baltimore got eliminated from postseason contention last week, normally a ‘bet-against’ situation. But every quote I’ve read from the Ravens locker room this week has been a ‘we’re coming to play’ quote. And those quotes aren’t just coming from John Harbaugh either. How about this quote from pro bowl offensive guard Marshal Yanda, playing through pain with a nasty shoulder injury:” We started something in the beginning, and if I can finish playing at a high level, I'm going to finish. Even though we're knocked out of the playoffs, Joe [Flacco] is still out there. I take a lot of pride in protecting him. I want to do my part." Harbaugh: “They approach the job with the utmost professionalism. They’re very tough. They love football. They want to play. Guys want to play. They look forward to playing the game. That’s the only kind of guys we really want to have around here. That’s the kind of guys we do have.” Take the Ravens |
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01-01-17 | Texans +3 v. Titans | 17-24 | Loss | -100 | 69 h 3 m | Show | |
Take Houston (#301) The betting markets seem to be reading this game wrong. The assumption seems to be as if this is a meaningless game for Houston; therefore Tennessee should be favored. But it’s NOT a meaningless game for Houston. And I have no hesitation betting against Matt Cassel as a favorite at any reasonable opportunity; hence the support for the road underdog here. Let me start with the Texans side of the equation. Houston benched starting QB Brock Osweiler two weeks ago. His replacement, Tom Savage, has been rather spotty, particularly in the red zone. Houston has a playoff game on tap for next week, and they need Savage up to speed. Defensively, Houston currently ranks #1 in the NFL in fewest yards allowed, and the talk in the locker room is that finishing with the #1 ranked defense is legitimately meaningful for this squad. Texans head coach Tom O’Brien: “I think anytime you line up, you play to win. I think that's what we're all about here with the Houston Texans. I think it's important to win anytime you play, in this case on Sunday. We'll be smart about it, we're going to go out there and do everything we can against a difficult opponent. We're going to go out there and play to win the game.” The Titans just got eliminated from the playoffs last week, not exactly a Week 17 motivator. They’ve won a grand total of four games by more than a field goal all season; not a team accustomed to building leads and winning by margin. And then there’s the Matt Cassel factor. Cassel enjoyed one magical season under Bill Belichick, with Tom O’Brien as his offensive coordinator, leading the Pats to an 11-5 record. Since then, he’s been a complete bust everywhere he’s been, with a 24-40 SU record as the starter. In nine starts with the Cowboys last year, Cassel went 1-8, the lone win coming by a field goal. False favorite here! Take the Texans. |
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12-24-16 | Bengals v. Texans -1 | Top | 10-12 | Win | 100 | 56 h 27 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Houston (#126) AJ Green is supposed to be back in the lineup for Cincinnati this week. And Bengals head coach Marvin Lewis continues to talk the talk about Cinci fighting hard over the final two weeks of what has been a lost season: “My thought is to win these last two football games with the best players we can put out there to play. That’s what we owe to everybody. This isn’t junior high school. We gotta play to win the game. That’s what it’s for. We owe it to that, we owe it to everybody. The guys out here put their neck on the line all the time.” I believe Lewis when he says that he expects his team to fight. But in this pointspread range, fighting isn’t enough – the Bengals have to WIN. And, as we saw very clearly in their home loss to Pittsburgh last Sunday, when it comes to digging down deep and finding a way to steal a tight game, Cinci isn’t very capable. The Bengals beat the Jets by one point on opening day. Since that time, they are 0-4 in games decided by less than a TD, unable to pull out any tight victories. Since that win over the Jets on opening day, Cinci has notched four other victories. Two came against the winless Browns. One came against the Eagles in the midst of a 2-9 slide. The other came against Miami, when the Dolphins were off to a 1-4 start, playing on a short week, on the road, with an inexperienced coaching staff. In other words, the Bengals really don’t have a single signature win this year, stepping up in class against a quality foe. And I don’t expect that to change, even with AJ Green expected back for Andy Dalton to throw too. It’s not like Green has been a difference maker this year, when healthy, with Cinci notching only three wins in the nine games that he played. And even with Green potentially suiting up, the Bengals are still dealing with a bevy of key injuries. In practice on Thursday, LB Vontez Burfict, offensive guard Clint Boling, TE Tyler Eifert and Eifert’s backup, Tyler Kroft were unable to suit up. Green and RB Jeremy Hill were limited. A banged up team that has been to the playoffs in each of the last five seasons, coming off another particularly frustrating loss to a divisional rival, isn’t primed to step up with a Week 16 ‘A’ game. Houston, on the other hand, isn’t losing key bodies—only RB Lamar Miller didn’t practice on Thursday. The Texans are sitting in a first place tie in the AFC South in large part due to their defense, ranked #1 overall and #2 against the pass. In the last four weeks, they’ve effectively shut down Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck and Philip Rivers; holding all three of those QB’s to 21 points or less; a stop unit that has performed admirably even without JJ Watt’s pass rushing pressure. What makes this game ‘Big Ticket’ worthy is the QB switch from Brock Osweiler to Tom Savage last week. The crowd went nuts following the switch, and based on every locker room quote I read after the game, the players on both sides of the football were every bit as overjoyed as the Houston fan base at the QB change. All this team needed all year has been adequate QB play – a QB who won’t cost them games. I think they’ve found one. Big Ticket: Take the Texans. |
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12-18-16 | Raiders -3 v. Chargers | Top | 19-16 | Push | 0 | 53 h 30 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Oakland (#327) The Chargers have fought the good fight, but you can stick a fork in this team right now because they are DONE! San Diego came into the season with high expectations and plenty of talent to bounce back from last year’s injury riddled 4-12 debacle. But things haven’t gone as planned, right from opening day when they blew a three TD second half lead at Arrowhead in a loss to Kansas City. It’s gotten much, much worse since then. Mike McCoy is highly unlikely to be back next year; a last place team playing for a lame duck head coach and a lame duck staff. The Chargers are likely to leave San Diego over the winter and play in LA next year after the vote to fund a new stadium got only 43% of the vote in November – expect as much support for the Raiders in this venue as we’ll see for the Chargers. San Diego is coming off back-2-back ugly losses; outplayed by Tampa Bay at home and slumping Carolina on the highway. And no team in the NFL has lost more top-flight talent to injuries than San Diego this year, a shell of the team they were supposed to be. The Chargers have no healthy running backs, with Melvin Gordon joining Danny Woodhead, Brandon Oliver and Dexter McCluster in street clothes. The cluster injuries at RB and ongoing shuffling on the offensive line have negatively affected their pass blocking, with Philip Rivers under constant pressure – he’s thrown ten interceptions and been sacked eleven times in the last four weeks. But the bigger issue here is San Diego’s problems on defense. Their DL is a mess, without run stuffers Brandon Mebane and Tenny Palepoi. Their best pass rusher, Joey Bosa, is questionable at best. And their secondary is even worse. Already without Jason Verrett and Brandon Flowers, it doesn’t look likely that the Chargers will have Craig Mager either, unable to practice on Wednesday or Thursday. That leaves a VERY thin secondary and a VERY weak pass rush against an elite passing offense! The Raiders laid an egg last week after reeling off six straight wins, unable to handle the frigid conditions at Arrowhead. But prior to that, the Raiders had won every road game all year. They’ve bounced back with road wins by a TD or more following each of their two previous losses. And, after dropping from #1 to #5 in the AFC seeding with just that single defeat, it’s a step-up spot for the road favorite. Oakland is 6-1 ATS in their last seven visits to Qualcomm and they’ve won all three meetings with the Chargers over the past two seasons. And with the Raiders thoroughly devalued in the betting markets again following last week’s no-show, the cheap price point to back the superior team in the superior spot is Big Ticket worthy! Big Ticket: Take the Raiders. |
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12-18-16 | Titans +5.5 v. Chiefs | 19-17 | Win | 100 | 49 h 5 m | Show | |
Take Tennessee (#317) The Chiefs have been a ‘smoke and mirrors’ team for months now, nowhere near as good as the markets are pricing them. Yes, Andy Reid’s squad deserves credit for overachieving vs. their statistical profile by a wide margin. But even with the emergence of Tyreek Hill as a downfield weapon for Alex Smith to utilize in recent weeks, KC is an overvalued commodity. KC’s statistical profile screams ‘fraud’. They’ve been outgained for the season. Opponents are outgaining them on both a ‘yards per pass attempt’ basis and a ‘yards per rush attempt’ basis. So how are the Chiefs sitting at 10-3 right now, the #2 seed in the AFC? Simple – a +11 turnover margin that ranks #3 in the NFL, and a remarkable propensity for pulling out ‘coin-flip’ type games. It’s surely worth noting that KC is 0-4 ATS when laying -4 or higher this year – seven of their ten wins have come by a single score, including each of their last five victories. KC suffered a HUGE loss last week in their victory over the Raiders when perennial pro bowl LB Derrick Johnson went down with a season ending injury. Defensive coordinator Bob Sutton knows how big a loss this is, a loss that the betting markets have essentially ignored completely: “We’re not going to replace Derrick. He’s a Pro Bowl player, a veteran guy, a great voice in locker room, a guy with great energy. We hate to lose him. The other guys, if they’ve done a great job of preparing for these first 12 weeks, even though you’re not playing, then things work out OK. It doesn’t mean there won’t be some bumps in the road.” The Titans outrushed Denver 180-18 last week, completely dominating the line of scrimmage on both sides of the football. On a frigid day in KC, the ‘road grader’ mentality from one of the league’s better offensive lines is primed to open things up for DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry on the ground. And this defense has been surprisingly effective of late, giving the Titans the vastly superior statistical profile in a game where they are significant underdogs. Titans head coach Mike Mularkey, talking about his team’s ability to compete on the highway: “Every one of these games, we've had a chance to win. They've all been close. We've won some of them. We've lost some of the close ones. I think the experience has been great for (the players.) Our guys believe we're going to win the game, no matter what the situation is." Last, but not least, this spot is not a good one for KC. They’re coming off a huge divisional win, taking control of the AFC West in the process. On deck? Another divisional showdown against Denver with a chance to clinch something! In between, they’ve got the Titans, a real sandwich spot. If the Chiefs win this one at all – a big ‘if’ – I don’t expect them to win by any sort of margin. Field goal type game here! Take the Titans. |
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12-17-16 | Dolphins -2 v. Jets | 34-13 | Win | 100 | 33 h 31 m | Show | |
Take Miami (#303) The Jets snapped a four game losing streak, rallying from a 17-3 deficit at San Francisco last week to win the game in overtime. The markets are viewing that victory as a very positive sign moving forward, pricing the Jets as less than a field goal underdog on Saturday Night against Miami. That’s not the appropriate price point for this ballgame! Don’t underestimate how bad these Jets really are. Their offensive line is a complete mess. Ryan Clady, Nick Mangold and Breno Giacomini are already on injured reserve, and fill in Brent Qvale is very questionable. Inexperienced QB Bryce Petty got hot down the stretch to rally the Jets against a 1-12 foe last week, but he was also sacked six times by a bottom tier pass rush. To put that number in perspective, San Fran hadn’t sacked any opposing QB more than three times in a game prior to last week. The Jets haven’t scored more than 17 points in regulation in any game over the past month, and I’m not expecting that to change here. Miami has the pass rush to blow up the line of scrimmage – their front four is the strength of the defense. And Miami certainly has more to play for than New York – they’re tied with Denver for the final Wild Card spot in the AFC. But I don’t lay points with teams in ‘must win’ games unless there’s more to the handicap than just ‘they gotta win’. And that’s the case here. This pointspread is so cheap for two reasons. First, we can expect some non-Miami type weather at Met Life Stadium. I’m not overly concerned about the weather forecast – it’s not going to be below freezing, and precipitation should be minimal – a foggy night, not a snowy one. Secondly, the markets have downgraded the Dolphins significantly with Matt Moore taking over for the injured Ryan Tannehill behind center. Moore is no rookie, a nine year vet who made a dozen starts for the Dolphins in 2011 and who has served as the backup in Miami ever since. Head coach Adam Gase, talking about his QB: “I like calling plays for him, because you never know what you’re going to experience in that play. I kind of like that about him. He’s aggressive. It’s fun, when we were going through preseason, how he’d develop in this offense. But I don’t think he gives himself the credit for the fact that he sees coverage well, he can throw the ball underneath, he can throw the intermediate ball. I like the fact that he’s not afraid to scramble outside of the pocket and play a little looser than a lot of coaches like. I like it.” And I like the concept of Miami playing loose and free, not tight and constrained, in a game where the SU win should equate with a pointspread cover. Take the Dolphins. |
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12-11-16 | Saints +2.5 v. Bucs | 11-16 | Loss | -100 | 76 h 52 m | Show | |
Take New Orleans (#121) The Saints win in Tampa. They’ve won in straight up fashion at Raymond James Stadium six times in the last seven years. And while this year’s Bucs team is clearly better than most recent versions, this has not been and is not now one of the NFL’s stronger home fields. Drew Brees comes onto this field with a good measure of confidence. A month ago, Tampa was playing for exercise. They’ve been loose, free and easy. Now, all of a sudden, a team that hasn’t smelled pressure has to take a big whiff of it. And they have to do it without key veterans WR Cecil Shorts and DE William Gholston, both out. They could also be without the likes of SS Chris Conte, TR Demar Dotson, C Evan Smith, TE Luke Stocker, WR Adam Humphries, DT Gerald McCoy and CB Alterraun Verner, all of whom missed practice on Thursday. I don’t trust the Bucs on a four game winning streak laying points to a more experienced, big-game savvy foe. The Saints have been a relatively easy handicap this year. You don’t want to lay points with this team off a win, but there’s no hesitation backing New Orleans as an underdog off a loss – they’ve cashed five times in this role already! And I’m not expecting any sort of hangover this week either, if we can believe this Drew Brees quote: “I know there were some issues last week but we dealt with that stuff very quickly and efficiently. There’s nothing lingering from that.” Take the Saints. |
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12-11-16 | Bengals v. Browns +5.5 | 23-10 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 29 m | Show | |
Take Cleveland (#112) Only one team in the history of the NFL has gone 0-16, the 2008 Lions. Detroit went 3-1 ATS in December after covering only four pointspreads all year prior to that point. By this stage of the season, the line catches up, even to historically bad NFL teams. A Browns team that lost six straight SU and ATS prior to their bye week finally offers the appropriate level of pointspread value to support on Sunday. Cleveland hasn’t quit. They haven’t given up. Pro bowl tackle Joe Thomas, talking about his teammates energy: “One of the positives of having a young team is they don't get discouraged like veterans do. Rookies, they don't know what they don't know. For instance, in years past, when we've had more veteran teams, if we started 0-8 or something like that, there [would have been] a mutiny. But these guys are still in summer camp. They come in with energy. They're happy and eager to learn every single day. That kind of gives you new life and new energy. You see the young guys walking in here with a skip in their step and you're thinking, 'Why can't I do the same thing?'" I like the fact that RG3 is healthy again and ready to start at quarterback this week. I like the fact that Hue Jackson teared up at his post-game press conference after their loss to the Giants prior to the bye. This team has downfield weapons in the passing game – Terrelle Pryor and Corey Coleman are both capable of notching quick strike scores, and Rashard Higgins caught a pair of balls last time out. Isaiah Crowell and Duke Johnson are both decent backs with the ability to catch passes out of the backfield. Cleveland’s offense has underachieved- they’re capable of trading points. There’s as much anti-Cincinnati in this wager as there is ‘pro-Cleveland’. The Bengals have no business as road chalk of more than a field goal against anybody. Marvin Lewis’s squad got off the schnied last week, beating Philly following a truly ugly stretch, winning only twice in a ten game span. That win did two things. First, it took the urgency out of the Bengals locker room. This veteran team isn’t going to the playoffs this year and they snapped their losing streak. It’s essentially a meaningless game for the discombobulated road favorite. And second, the Bengals win over Philly last week has convinced the betting market that Cinci is decent. In my strong opinion, that’s the wrong read – it was more about Philly looking awful than Cinci looking good. And while each of the last four meetings between these two divisional rivals has been a blowout by the Bengals, it’s not like the Browns haven’t been able to pull upsets in this series, and it’s hard to picture a fully focused Bengals team on Sunday. Live dog! Take the Browns. |
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12-11-16 | Steelers -2 v. Bills | 27-20 | Win | 100 | 72 h 28 m | Show | |
Take Pittsburgh (#113) Pittsburgh’s full season statistics are completely meaningless, yet those full season numbers have had an enormous effect on Pittsburgh’s power rating numbers. As a result, the Steelers are priced VERY cheaply, laying less than a field goal, in a game they are poised to dominate. Pittsburgh has been riddled with injuries this season. They’ve played at least one game without their best player at every position: QB, RB, WR, TE, OL, DL, LB and in the secondary. But the Steelers have finally gotten healthy over the last month. Big Ben is at 100% behind center. Le’Veon Bell is exactly the type of RB you want on a cold, potentially snowy day in Buffalo. TE LaDrius Green is back, as are WR’s Sammie Coates and Eli Rogers, finally giving Antonio Brown some help on the outside. Rogers quote stands out: “We feel like we have the best receiving corps in the league, and that’s how we go about our business. We never worry about another team.” It’s the same story on defense, where the Steelers lost numerous key players in September and October who have returned to health in recent weeks. Artis Burns and Sean Davis – two guys who struggled mightily early – tied for the team lead in tackles against the Giants last week. Ryan Shazier, who missed time earlier, had the big pass breakup on fourth down to clinch the game. Mike Mitchell broke up a pair of passes as well. A mediocre defense over the first half of the season has now allowed only 30 points in their last three games. While Pittsburgh is power rated in the wrong place right now (I’ve got the Steelers ranked #4 in power ratings, ahead of Oakland, Atlanta and KC), so are the Bills! The markets focus on stats, and Buffalo has a solid statistical profile. But when it comes to results, Rex Ryan’s team consistently falls short. The results don’t lie. Look at Buffalo’s wins this year. The beat the Jaguars and the 49ers and the Rams, all bottom feeders. They beat the Bengals when Cinci was in the midst of a ‘two wins in ten games’ slide. They beat the Patriots with Jacoby Brissett behind center. Their one legit ‘signature’ win came back in Week 3 at home against Arizona, and even that comes with two asterisks – it was an awful spot for the Cards and Arizona is no juggernaut this year – they’ve got a sub .500 record too. The Bills blew a 15 point lead in Oakland last week, outscored 29-0 down the stretch of a particularly demoralizing defeat. There’s enormous pressure on the home team here as they look to end the NFL’s longest current playoff drought; a ‘must win’ for the home team. It’s hard for me to trust a ‘must win’ team facing a superior opponent, given that the Bills have lost every ‘must win’ game for the past decade and a half. Take the Steelers. |
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12-11-16 | Redskins v. Eagles | Top | 27-22 | Win | 100 | 72 h 29 m | Show |
Big Ticket: NFL Game of the YEAR: Take Washington (#123) This game cannot be priced near pick ‘em, yet that’s exactly where the betting markets are as I write this on Thursday, with Washington widely available at -1, with some pick ‘em’s till out there. There’s a world of difference between these two teams right now and moving forward. Washington was a playoff team last year, and very much in the playoff hunt this year. Philly’s a last place team in the midst of a 2-7 skid; a team that overachieved early and has been overvalued ever since. The first meeting between these two teams wasn’t nearly as close as the final score would indicate. Washington won by a TD, despite the fact that the Eagles had a kick return touchdown AND an interception return touchdown. It’s nearly impossible to cover the spread after allowing two non-offensive TD’s. The Redskins had no problem in that regard in Round 1, still winning by seven. They had a 26-12 first down edge and a 493-239 total yardage edge – mismatch stats. The rematch should be every bit as much of a mismatch, especially now that the Eagles have stopped scoring non-offensive TD’s every week, like they were doing over the first half of the campaign. Washington was a December team last year, going 4-0 SU and ATS down the stretch to win the division, including a two TD road win right here in Philadelphia. But Washington enters this December on the outside looking in at the playoff picture, following back-2-back defeats. Last week’s game at Arizona was riddled with mistakes; a poorly played game that left head coach Jay Gruden in a foul mood, and he let his team know about it in a postgame tirade. Here’s what he said to reporters afterwards: “I don’t like the way we came out. I don’t like the way they had a 16-play drive down our throat to start the game. I don’t like the way our offense answered with two penalties on the first drive and having to punt. That’s not the way we want to come out for a football game, getting ready against a good team on the road. I don’t like the fact that we had two turnovers and didn’t cause any. I don’t like the fact that we lost the game. That’s a good football team. Hats off to Coach (Bruce) Arians and the Arizona Cardinals, but I feel like we underachieved today, and that’s very frustrating.” Clearly, it’s a ‘circle the wagons’ spot for the road team, following two straight defeats to an elite (Dallas) and a playoff contender (Arizona). It’s surely worth noting that the Skins haven’t lost three in a row since Gruden’s first year on the job, when they were a 4-12 team. Washington is a little bit banged up, but they should get three key contributors back this week. Starting left tackle Trent Williams is back after serving a four game suspension. Guard/center Kory Lichtensteiger is coming off IR, ready to contribute. And pro bowl caliber tight end Jordan Reed was back in practice, likely to suit up after missing last week’s game. While everything points towards an ‘A’ level effort from the Redskins on Sunday, I’m getting a very different vibe from the slumping Eagles, just 2-7 since their hot start in September. Philly’s offense has been limited all year, and that hasn’t changed. Rookie QB Carson Wentz has hit a wall, now that opposing coordinators have plenty of film to study. Philly has scored only 24 offensive touchdowns in their first dozen games. Top RB Ryan Matthews is banged up, top WR Jordan Matthews is banged up and their offensive line is struggling in every way. Defensively, the Eagles have gone downhill over the past month and a half. They’ve notched only six sacks in the last six games, and have permitted at least two TD passes in seven of their last nine overall. Defensive end Fletcher Cox was not amused by head coach Doug Pederson’s quote that ‘Not everyone (played hard)” in their ugly loss at Cinci last week. Cox: “That’s one of the things that we talked about, sticking together. And not calling anyone out, not separating yourself. Just sticking together as a team and as an organization and then when I heard that, it kinda wowed me. That’s not stuff that we do or things that we talk about it, but obviously somebody felt that way and they’re going to say how they feel.” Cox is a real leader, both on the field and in the locker room. If he’s taking shots in the media, it’s about as big a red flag as you can find for a team headed south in a hurry. One more quote from Jay Gruden to close out this write-up: “There’s no talk about playoffs over here. We’re trying to win the next game… we’re going to do the best we can against Philadelphia. That’s all I know.” That’s the right way to approach it, coach! Big Ticket NFL GOY: Take the Redskins. |
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12-05-16 | Colts -1.5 v. Jets | 41-10 | Win | 100 | 80 h 21 m | Show | |
Take Indianapolis (#377) My clients and I cashed a winning bet supporting the New York Jets last Sunday, as they fought tooth-and-nail against their hated divisional rivals from New England. The Jets approached the game like it was their Super Bowl; playing with max intensity from start to finish. Yet even with that level of effort, New York wasn’t good enough. Frankly, they weren’t close to being good enough. The Jets scored ten quick points, then managed just a single score for the rest of the game while their defense forced only one punt after the first quarter, despite New England’s offensive injuries. What happens when you play your Super Bowl one week and you lose? The Jets won ten games last year; in the playoff hunt right through Week 17. Right now, they are 3-8, ranked #14 out of 16 AFC teams. It’s a veteran squad that had all kinds of expectations coming into the campaign. Now, they’re just playing out the string. And this week’s game, coming off a maximum intensity spot last week has all the makings of a ‘no-show’ for the home team. You can stick a fork in the Jets, because they are DONE! That’s not the case for the Colts. Indy isn’t very good – they’re not a sub .500 squad by accident. But they are still very much in contention in the mediocre AFC South. And, after an ugly national TV showing with Scott Tolzien behind center on Thanksgiving Night, the Colts should have Andrew Luck back on the field here in a spot where they’ve had ten days to prepare. The difference between Indy with Scott Tolzien and Indy with Andrew Luck is ENORMOUS, both in terms of on-field play and in terms of confidence – Andrew Luck tends to win games like this one (short price range on the highway), while Ryan Fitzpatrick tends to lose them. The Colts were good enough to win SU at Green Bay and at Tennessee in their last two road tilts; worthy of a wager here in a game where the straight up win should equate with a pointspread cover. Take the Colts. |
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12-04-16 | Redskins +2.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 23-31 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 16 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Washington (#371) The betting markets have been extraordinarily reluctant to accept that the Arizona Cardinals just aren’t very good this year. My clients and I have been betting against the Cardinals since the preseason on a fairly consistent basis, cashing four winning bets against Bruce Arians squad already. Expect #5 this week. December brings a different handicapping element to the table compared to the first three months of the regular season. At this stage of the season, I’m looking to bet against veteran teams with a recent history of playoff appearances who aren’t going to the postseason this year. Arizona is near the top of that list! This team came into the season harboring Super Bowl dreams. They’ve been in the playoffs in each of the last two seasons, winning a playoff game last year. This year, they have four wins, and it’s Week 13. They are the 12th ranked team out of 16 in the NFC – even a 5-0 run to close out the regular season isn’t likely to be enough to get them into the playoffs, and they still have road games at Miami and Seattle, as well as a visit from New Orleans; all playoff contenders that they’ll have to beat. Arizona’s team chemistry has been ‘iffy’ all year. There’s a clear disconnect between management and the coaching staff. The veterans aren’t buying what Bruce Arians is selling the way they were last year. QB Carson Palmer is looking old and creaky, sacked 28 times while committing 14 turnovers over his last seven starts, playing behind an ineffective offensive line. Palmer’s yards per pass attempt has dropped from 8.7 last year to 7.0 this year and he’s already committed as many interceptions and lost more fumbles than he did in 16 games last year. Arizona’s defense was every bit as good as their offense on paper heading into the season. But that unit, too, is in serious decline. They’re banged up in the secondary with Patrick Peterson, Justin Bethel and Tyrann Mathieu all questionable on Sunday. Three of the Cardinals last four opponents have hung 30+ on them; unable to stop the run or the pass on a consistent basis. This is NOT an elite team, not even a playoff team, but those preseason expectations continue to cloud the judgement of the betting markets. Arizona’s last pointspread cover came back in mid-October, consistently overvalued by the markets. Their last win against an opponent with a winning record came back in Week 2 against Tampa! And then there’s the Redskins piece of the equation. Washington is locked in a tight battle for a playoff spot in the ultra-competitive NFC East, with a half game lead in the Wild Card race. Since their 0-2 start, the Redskins have only lost twice. They gave up a last second TD to lose by 3 at Detroit, and came up short with a late rally at Dallas last Sunday, still covering the spread in defeat. From a pointspread perspective, the betting marketplace reluctance to accept Washington as a contender is perfectly clear. The Redskins are 8-1 ATS in their last nine game, the lone loss coming in that aforementioned three point defeat at Detroit. Kirk Cousins is better than Carson Palmer right now, and the Redskins deep and dynamic receiving corps is second to none. The betting markets are calling this a ‘flat spot’ for the Redskins, coming off their loss to Dallas on Thanksgiving, with a divisional showdown against Philly on deck next week. I couldn’t disagree more! Washington LOST to Dallas – there’s urgency here for a team that has been a consistent moneywinner on the highway dating back to their stretch run last December. Wrong team favored! Big Ticket: Take the Redskins. |
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12-04-16 | Chiefs v. Falcons -4.5 | 29-28 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 42 m | Show | |
Take Atlanta (#354) Let me start this write-up here: Kansas City is a fraud. And it’s about as bad a spot as we’ll see for the Chiefs all year. Put those two factors together and you can understand why the sharp $$ has been pouring in on the Falcons. KC is sitting at 8-3 right now. They are 19-3 in their last 22 regular season games, the best record in the NFL during that span. They’ve rallied from 8+ point deficits to win SU on three separate occasions this year. And yet KC is poised to take a fall on Sunday. All three of their big ‘come-from-behind’ wins came against opponents who screwed up. The Chargers and Broncos both missed game winning field goals. Cam Newton threw an ugly pick six, as the Chiefs comeback in Carolina came without an offensive touchdown. That’s not being ‘good’. That’s being ‘lucky’. KC’s statistical profile screams ‘fraud’. They’ve been outgained for the season. Opponents are averaging 7.0 yards per pass against this defense while Alex Smith is only averaging 6.6 yards per attempt. Opponents are gaining 4.3 yards per rush against KC while the Chiefs are averaging just 4.0 yards per carry. On a per play basis, the Chiefs have been outgained by an average of a half yard on every snap this season! That stands in contrast with the Falcons ‘best in the NFL’ margin of +1.0 yards per play! The Chiefs have the best turnover differential in the NFL with a +14, thanks to an NFL best 24 takeaways. Against weaker offenses, I’d be concerned about that stat. But not against Atlanta! The Falcons have only turned the ball over nine times all year, with QB Matt Ryan playing at an MVP level in his second season running Kyle Shanahan’s offense. The Falcons 6.6 yards per play average is the best in the NFL over the last five seasons. They hung 38 on Arizona’s defense last week, despite the fact that Julio Jones got shut down, demonstrating the versatility of this downfield attack. And from a spot standpoint, this game stands out as well. KC is coming off a grueling 75 minutes of football against their hated divisional rival; a physically exhausting contest. Now they’ve got to travel back East for an early start game. Up next? A short turnaround Thursday Night matchup with the Raiders with first place on the line in the AFC West. It’s truly a ‘flat spot’ for the road underdog. Take the Falcons. |
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11-28-16 | Packers +4.5 v. Eagles | 27-13 | Win | 100 | 8 h 29 m | Show | |
Take Green Bay (#275) The mainstream media spends plenty of time dissecting struggling teams, with Green Bay under the microscope this week after back-2-back truly dismal defensive showings. The Packers allowed 47 points to the Titans and 42 to the Redskins in the first two games of this road trip, on the heels of allowing 31 to Indy and 33 to Atlanta in their previous two games; four consecutive defeats for a team that opened the season with a 4-2 mark. It’s worth noting that all four of those opponents who decimated this GB defense are well above average offensive teams. Three of the four rank among the top five teams in the NFL in yards per play on offense, and the fourth – Indy – had Andrew Luck on a hot night for an elite QB. The Eagles rank #23 in the NFL in yards per play, and they’ll be without top RB Ryan Matthews and a pair of starting offensive linemen this evening. I’ve read several ‘stick a fork in the Packers because they are done’ articles from various sources over the last few days. There were plenty of similar articles about the 49ers, Bears and Jaguars last week, all of whom played with effort and passion while covering the closing number on Sunday. We heard similar things about the Dolphins, Chargers and Bucs prior to their current winning streaks. A mid-season losing streak against a bevy of good offensive foes is not necessarily a season killer for the Packers! These quotes tell us why. Aaron Rodgers: “I feel like we can run the table, I really do. The offense is starting to click a little bit more. We’ve just got to get together a game where we’re more consistent from the first snap to the last. We’ve been, I think, getting closer to that. We’ve really been clicking at times in the past few games.” Head coach Mike McCarthy: "We have the right kind of men. This group of men, we're going to get to where we want to go. I'm fully confident in that. The process, the approach, the preparation, we're going to get this the way it needs to be. This locker room is awesome. We've got to win. We get that. It's about results. But everything leading up to that, I'm very pleased with. So we're just going to keep stoking our fire and we're going to do everything we need to … to go beat Philadelphia." Defensive coordinator Dom Capers: “You just keep working at it. ... We know how to do it, we’ve done it for quite a while around here.” Capers should get some reinforcements back on the injury riddled defense. Clay Matthews is back to 100%, CB Damarious Randall is likely to suit up as is LB Jake Ryan. Meanwhile, the Eagles haven’t scored more than 24 points in any game since September with a rookie QB playing behind a banged up offensive line with mediocre (at best) downfield playmakers to throw to! The Eagles had more than their fair share of ‘right team at the right time’ kind of wins this year. They caught Atlanta as flat as a pancake, following four straight wins with their bye on deck. They caught Minnesota fat and happy off a 5-0 start and a bye week that snapped their momentum. And they caught Pittsburgh off two straight wins, playing their worst game of the season. Their other two wins came against Cleveland and Chicago; absolute bottom feeders. In other words, Philly hasn’t beaten a decent team in a ‘step-up’ spot all year. They’ve got major issues at cornerback too, bad news now that the Packers pass receivers are fully healthy with TE Jared Cook having an instant impact last week. Yet the $$ is flowing in on the Eagles tonight because Green Bay looked so bad last week and the week before. Those games are in the rear view mirror now. Expect Philly to struggle to win this game at all, let alone winning it by any sort of margin! Take the Packers. |
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11-27-16 | Chiefs v. Broncos -3.5 | 30-27 | Loss | -105 | 56 h 57 m | Show | |
Take Denver (#272). (Abbreviated write-ups on a very busy Thanksgiving Weekend) |
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11-27-16 | Patriots v. Jets +7.5 | 22-17 | Win | 100 | 52 h 53 m | Show | |
Take the New York Jets (#274). (Abbreviated write-ups on a very busy Thanksgiving Weekend) |
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11-20-16 | Dolphins v. Rams +1.5 | 14-10 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 36 m | Show | |
Take the LA Rams (#468) The Miami Dolphins have won four straight, covering the spread in all four victories following their 1-4 start. While the mainstream media focuses on the emergence of RB Jay Ajayi, the savvy ‘capper digs a bit deeper. Here’s what I wrote about the Dolphins two weeks ago, backing them as home favorites against the New York Jets: “Three weeks ago, the Dolphins lost at home to Tennessee by two touchdowns. Immediately following the game, Miami cut two of their starting offensive linemen from that game, thanks to the return of left tackle Brandon Albert and left guard Laremy Tunsil from injuries. Pro bowl center Mike Pouncey had returned from his own injury the previous week. All of a sudden – basically, out of nowhere – the Dolphins offensive line went from a bottom tier unit to a ‘well above average’ unit. “If you never heard of Jay Ajayi a month ago, you weren’t the only one. Ajayi had only 31 carries through Miami’s first six games, including one where he was inactive (not due to injury, either! Then the Dolphins offensive line got healthy, Ajayi inherited the starters job and voila: back-2-back 200 yard rushing games, something that only Earl Campbell, OJ Simpson and Ricky Williams had ever done before, not a bad trio to be associated with. He averaged 8.2, and 7.6 yards per carry in those two contests ripping off chunks against two solid defenses in Buffalo and Pittsburgh.” Brandon Albert got hurt again last week. So did Mike Pouncey. That vastly improved offensive line just turned to dust. Ryan Tannehill took eleven sacks in two games against the Titans and Bengals before that OL got healthy. He’s only taken three sacks in four games since, and the Dolphins have only committed one turnover during that span. Look for both sacks and turnovers to rise with Tannehill under pressure against the Rams truly elite defensive front. Adam Gase knows Miami is in trouble here. His quote: “We're going to shuffle some things around. We're working a couple different lineups trying to figure out what's the best one to go into the game with. Obviously we've got a very big challenge this week.” Miami was a ‘wrong side’ winner against the Jets, winning the game and covering the spread on a late kickoff return touchdown. They were a ‘wrong side’ winner last week against San Diego, winning the game and covering the spread on a late pick six as the Chargers were driving for the game winning field goal. While I give Miami credit for making big plays with the game on the line, you can’t count on that every week, particularly against a Rams team that is also quite adept at creating big plays from their defense and special teams. The markets are fixating on Rams rookie QB Jared Goff making his NFL starting debut, with money pouring in on Miami. First, Goff was an elite QB at Cal last year, with the type of arm strength that can test opposing defenses. Second, Case Keenum was nothing short of awful – Goff’s not likely to be any worse, much like Trevor Siemian hasn’t been worse than Peyton Manning was last year for Denver. And third, the Rams are the only team in the NFL with a defense that’s been good enough to win not one but TWO games without scoring a single touchdown. Expect that defense to be the difference maker here for a ‘fat and happy’ Dolphins squad that just spent the week lounging around in LA. Take the Rams. |
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11-20-16 | Bills +2.5 v. Bengals | 16-12 | Win | 101 | 49 h 32 m | Show | |
Take Buffalo (#461) There’s a huge scheduling edge for the hungry and desperate road underdog here. The Bengals are coming off a short week, having lost another heartbreaker by a single point on Monday Night Football. The Bills are coming off three straight losses and a bye week. Cinci’s loss dropped them to 3-5-1, a veteran team that has been to the playoffs in each of the last five seasons, now realizing that it’ll be an uphill battle to make it six years in a row. The Bills have the longest playoff drought in the NFL, truly hungry coming out of their bye and ahead of Cinci in the Wild Card standings. Cincinnati’s problems aren’t getting better. They managed just 12 first downs on Monday Night against the G-men, gaining only 4.8 yards per play. Once again, they couldn’t generate first downs from their running game, with nine different drives last week that produced either one or no first downs. This formerly elite defense has held only two opponents under three touchdowns all year. In fact, when you look at Cinci’s season as a whole, you’ll find only three wins. They beat the worst team in the NFL, Cleveland, by two touchdowns. They beat Miami, with a rookie coaching staff forced to travel for a Thursday Night game when the Dolphins offensive line was riddled with injuries. And they beat the 3-7 Jets by one point on a day where Nick Folk missed a field goal and an extra point. That’s it. Cinci hasn’t beaten any decent team in a decent spot all year, and I don’t think that changes on Sunday. The Bills are most assuredly a decent team in a decent spot. They’ve been running the ball down opponents throats; the #3 rushing offense in the NFL. QB Tyrod Taylor lit up the Seahawks elite defense in his last outing, and the skill position talent around him is much healthier off the bye. Key defensive lineman Marcell Dareus is expected back here too. And, after facing New England and Seattle in their last two games, the Bengals won’t seem so tough here on either side of the football. Buffalo went into their bye week in their first season under Rex Ryan off back-2-back losses. They came out of the bye and notched a blowout win the following week. We don’t need a blowout here to cash this winning bet – even a tight loss will suffice. NO RUSH TO BET THIS – there’s at least some chance we’ll see +3’s available on gameday. Take the Bills. |
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11-20-16 | Cardinals +2.5 v. Vikings | Top | 24-30 | Loss | -105 | 49 h 20 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Arizona (#459) Both of these teams have struggled in recent weeks. Only one of the two has hope moving forward. Minnesota went 5-0 to open the season prior to their bye week. It was all about turnovers and big plays on defense and special teams. They committed only one turnover through those first five weeks, while notching 12 on defense. Sam Bradford was sacked eight times in his first four starts, but the Vikings defense generated a whopping 17 sacks of their own in those four games. Since the bye week, the Vikings have collapsed. They’re not coming back. Minnesota’s offensive line has been riddled with injuries, losing another tackle, Jake Long, last week. The three healthy tackles remaining on Mike Zimmer’s roster aren’t exactly a litany of pro bowlers: TJ Clemmings, Jeremiah Sirles and Willie Beavers none of whom has any business starting an NFL game. They just reinforced the unit by signing Rashod Hill off the Jaguars practice squad. I can’t think of many teams that have improved by signing guys of the Jacksonville practice squad….. A bad offensive line has led to more problems. Sam Bradford has been sacked 16 times in the last four games, twice his sack rate from earlier in the season. Minnesota’s running game isn’t just bad – it’s historically bad, with their 2.7 yards per rush average the worst in the NFL. To put that number in perspective, the #32nd ranked rushing offense in the NFL over the last three years averaged 3.7, 3.8 and 3.9 yards per carry. Minnesota is a full YARD per carry below any of them! So what happens next? The respected coaches start fighting amongst themselves. Offensive coordinator Norv Turner flat out quit, midseason. Kicker Blair Walsh fell apart, costing the Vikings at least one win, potentially two. And Minnesota’s once elite defense – a defense that carried them last year and carried them to the 5-0 mark to open this season – has started to wear down. Three of the Vikings last four foes have rushed for 100+ against them. Three of their last four foes have passed for 200+ against them. With the game on the line in the fourth quarter or overtime, the Vikings gave up game winning drives to Detroit and Washington in the last two weeks. Hell, this defense made Jay Cutler look decent on Monday Night Football. The wheels have fallen off, and Minnesota is a clear ‘bet-against’ team moving forward. Arizona is not a ‘bet-against’ team. The markets seem mad at the Cardinals for repeatedly failing to cover as a favorite this year. Bruce Arians squad lost outright to the Patriots, Bills and Rams as chalk, laying -6 or higher in all three games. ‘Zona couldn’t cover against the Seahawks in a game where their defense didn’t allow a touchdown. Last week, coming off their bye, facing the lowly 49ers, ‘Zona was in a ‘life and death’ battle just to win the game against a bottom feeder that had lost each of their seven previous games by double digit margins. None of that matters here, because the Cardinals aren’t chalk in this game – they’re underdogs! Sure, they were flat and sluggish against San Fran. Who cares? That was last week. They were playing the worst team in the league, a team they had blown out a month earlier. And they won the game, keeping their very real playoff hopes alive, just a game out of the Wild Card and very much in contention in the NFC North. There’s no snow expected on gameday, and this Cardinals team has been pretty darn good in bad weather settings in recent years, including last year’s outright upset win at Seattle. Wrong team favored here! Take the Cardinals. |
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11-17-16 | Saints +3.5 v. Panthers | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 9 h 36 m | Show | |
Take New Orleans (#309) I can do this write-up in one sentence: The Panthers can’t be laying more than a field goal to any competitive foe right now. Why not? Last year, the Panthers enjoyed some real magic. They finished the season with a +20 turnover margin and Cam Newton played like an emerging superstar behind an elite offensive line. This year, the Panthers are -7 in turnovers, and Cam Newton is making bad decisions, taking hits and running for his life behind an underachieving OL. Last week’s loss might well have been the nail in the coffin for Ron Rivera’s squad. They led KC 17-3 at the half, and put together a 10 minute, 20 play drive in the third quarter. But Cam Newton took back-2-back sacks that took Carolina out of field goal range. He threw an awful Pick Six into coverage. And with 29 seconds left an ill-fated decision to try to matriculate the ball down the field went awry with a Kelvin Benjamin fumble that cost them the game. I’m not convinced that Carolina is going to bounce back strong from that demoralizing defeat. Now the Panthers are a last place, 3-6 football team with a porous secondary and a sputtering offense. Drew Brees and the Saints hung 41 on this defense last month, with Drew Brees throwing for 465 yards and four TD’s. And while Carolina’s defense is MUCH weaker than last year’s unit, the Saints defense is showing real signs of progress. They sacked Trevor Siemian six times last week, and held the Broncos to 4.1 yards per play and just 2.8 yards per rush. That came on the heels of ‘better than expected’ defensive showings against the 49ers and Seahawks in their two previous games. The Saints track record is remarkably simple to follow. They’ve been awful favorites, cashing just one winning bet in four tries this year and two bets in seven tries last year. But as an underdog, catching points, the Saints have been consistent moneymakers: 5-0 ATS this year; 15-3 ATS as a dog dating all the way back to the 2013 playoffs. The Saints heartbreaker last week wasn’t a season killer; still very live to make a late season run to the postseason. I’m taking the points to be safe, but frankly, the outright underdog ‘W’ would be no surprise for this bettor tonight! Take the Saints. |
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11-13-16 | Seahawks v. Patriots -7.5 | 31-24 | Loss | -100 | 57 h 38 m | Show | |
Take New England (#274) When it comes to NFL handicapping, the spot is always a factor. This game really stands out in that regard. There are bad spots. There are really bad spots. And then there are horrifically bad spots, like this game is for the Seahawks. The average NFL defense is on the field for exactly 30 minutes per week, while facing an average of 64 plays per game. Three weeks ago, the Seahawks defense was on the field for 46 minutes and 90 plays in a brutal OT affair at Arizona. Two weeks ago, Seattle’s defense was on the field for 36 minutes while facing 72 plays. Last week, against the Bills, the Seahawks defense was on the field for 40 minutes while facing 82 plays. That’s too much work for any NFL defense, even an elite one. We saw cracks in the D against New Orleans, as the Saints had a 100 yard rusher against the normally stout Seattle run defense. We saw even more signs of fatigue last week, when the Seahawks couldn’t get Tyrod Taylor and the banged up Bills offense off the field. Buffalo had 30 first downs in that game, converting on 12 of 17 third down tries. Now, off those three grueling games, travelling East on a short week after playing on Monday Night, the Seahawks must face a rested Patriots team coming off their bye. We all know about Bill Belichick’s track record with extra time to prepare – as good as it gets, both SU and ATS. Following their bye last year, they beat Dallas 30-8 as 8 point favorites. In 2014, they hung 42 on Indy post-bye in another 22 point blowout. I could go on and on, but you get my point – the Pats are a team worthy of a wager just about every time Belichick has the time to coach them up. But the kicker here is what the Patriots offense has been doing of late, AWFUL news for the Seahawks exhausted defense. Since Tom Brady returned to the lineup following his early season suspension, he’s notched a 12-0 TD-INT ratio with a QB rating of 133.9. To put that number in perspective, the highest full season rating in NFL history is 122.5 from Aaron Rodgers in 2011. Brady’s playing well above that level, with Gronk and Martellus Bennett dominating over the middle, opening up room for LeGarrette Blount to run and for James White to catch passes out of the backfield. Heck, they even get Dion Lewis back into the lineup here, giving the NFL’s most potent offense yet another weapon to attack the NFL’s most tired defense. Expect a blowout. Take the Patriots. |
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11-13-16 | Cowboys v. Steelers -2.5 | 35-30 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 34 m | Show | |
Take Pittsburgh (#272) The Steelers looked rusty at Baltimore last week, as they should have. Pittsburgh has lost arguably their best player on every single unit for at least one game this season, suffering injuries and attrition at QB, RB, WR, TE, DL, LB and DB. With many contributors seeing the field for the first time together last week, the first three quarters weren’t pretty – Pittsburgh had just two first downs against a swarming Ravens defense. But Ben Roethlisberger finally found his rhythm in the fourth quarter, leading the team on two TD drives. Now they’ve had a full week of practice together, as a team, for the first time since August. I’m expecting that fourth quarter momentum to carry forward. Roethlisberger, talking about the Steelers 4-4 record at the midway point of the season: “Guys who've been here know that (this is) no time — no reason — to panic. I'm not thinking about the good, not thinking about the bad — or anything — on the first half of the season. We're strictly moving forward, and we need to be the best football team that we can be. Everything we've done so far is behind us — good, bad and indifferent.” It’s surely worth noting that starting center Maurkice Pouncey got hurt early against Baltimore last week. He’s expected to start on Sunday. And the Steelers defensive front has seen numerous players return from injury over the past two weeks, a defense primed to take a positive step moving forward. From a ‘strength of schedule’ standpoint, this game really stands out. If the season ended today, the only playoff team that Dallas would have faced is the New York Giants – their only loss. Meanwhile, the Steelers have faced the likes of Washington, Cinci, Philly, KC and New England, among others. The only sub .500 squads they’ve faced have been the Bengals and Jets, no pushovers. And that’s what makes this a bet, not a lean towards Pittsburgh. The Steelers are battle tested and hungry, borderline desperate. The Cowboys are neither. The thing that stands out about the Cowboys season has been the lack of adversity that they’ve faced. They haven’t trailed on the road since Week 4 at San Fran, and coming back against the 49ers isn’t all that hard to do. But if Ezekiel Elliott isn’t running wild against the Steelers stout defensive front, Dak Prescott’s going to have to make plays and produce touchdowns in a pressure situation here, something I haven’t seen him do yet. The second of back-2-back road games following seven straight victories is NOT a step-up spot for the road underdog. Pittsburgh has won seven straight home games, with Big Ben averaging nearly four TD passes per GAME during that span. There’s no disrespect towards Dallas with this wager – count me among the Cowboys believers. But not this week in this spot – it’s ‘fat and happy’ vs. ‘talented and hungry’. Take the Steelers. |
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11-13-16 | Bears -1.5 v. Bucs | Top | 10-36 | Loss | -115 | 49 h 9 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Chicago (#265) There’s a world of difference between these two teams right now, even though the Bucs have the better record of these two teams heading into Week 11. Let me start with the anti-Tampa piece of the equation. The Bucs beat the Falcons on opening day. Since that time, Tampa has two wins. One came at San Francisco, against the single worst team in the NFL (yes, my power ratings have the 49ers below Cleveland). The other came at Carolina, in a game where they were +4 in turnovers against a backup quarterback on a slumping team. Even with that turnover margin, they only won the game by three points. The Bucs have been outgained by 0.9 yards per play this year. They haven’t been able to run the football at all since Doug Martin and Jaquizz Rodgers got hurt, and while Martin is back in practice this week he’s questionable at best to suit up on Sunday. QB Jameis Winston is dealing with a lingering knee injury; not the running threat he was last year. Top receiver Mike Evans has been in concussion protocol all week, no sure thing to suit up. This offense isn’t primed to light up scoreboards, especially with center Joe Hawley likely to miss with a knee injury and guard Kevin Pamphile expected to miss. The Bucs defense is even worse, likely to be without key nose tackle Clinton McDonald this week. They’ve been consistently torched by every decent offense they’ve faced all year, unable to stop the run or the pass. And when we add into the mix Tampa’s homefield advantage – or more specifically the lack thereof – the price looks very cheap to fade this struggling squad. Let’s not forget that Tampa is 0-4 SU and ATS at home this year after going 3-13 SU, 5-11 ATS at Raymond James Stadium in 2014 and 2015 combined. Yet a homefield edge continues to get priced into the line….. If you read the sports pages out of Chicago this week, they were filled with positive quotes for a 2-6 team that went into the bye week with a solid win and expects to come out of the bye week with another one. Chicago got MUCH healthier off the bye, with offensive linemen Josh Sitton and Kyle Long primed to suit up on Sunday along with WR Eddie Royal, RB Jeremy Langford, LB Pernell McPhee and several other key defenders. Jay Cutler: “We're getting the full deck back together again. which is going to make it easier for the playcallers and guys making plays for us." John Fox: "I think Jay will get the biggest benefit because this is his second (straight) start. He missed five games, and he'd be the first to tell you that there's a little rust there.” Eddie Royal: "You look around and you see so many good players, it's like, why not win out? You've got to win the first one, but we believe in each other so much that we know that we can turn this thing around." All of a sudden, the NFC North is wide open, with both Green Bay and Minnesota losing in back-2-back weeks. There’s hope and there’s life in Chicago. The Bears won right here in Tampa last year, outgaining the Bucs by more than 100 yards. Chicago beat Tampa at Soldier Field the year before. Expect the Bears to hit the Bucs Trifecta, notching their third victory against Tampa over the last three seasons in a game that is far more of a mismatch than this short pointspread would indicate. Big Ticket: Take the Bears. |
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11-06-16 | Titans +4 v. Chargers | 35-43 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 21 m | Show | |
Take Tennessee (#469) The MO on the Chargers is very simple – strong underdog, bad favorite. Seven of the eight Chargers games this year have been decided by a single possession. San Diego is just 5-10 ATS in their last 15 tries as a favorite under Mike McCoy, including a one point loss to the Saints in their last try in this role on this field. Last week’s loss to the Broncos illustrated why McCoy probably won’t be around next year; a mistake filled performance filled with very questionable play calls and coaching moves. Philip Rivers is coming off a three interception showing at Denver. His receiving corps is all banged up, with TE Hunter Henry very questionable this week, as is WR Tyrell Williams. Travis Benjamin has a bad knee, top wideout Keenan Allen is out for the year and RB Melvin Gordon is averaging only 3.6 yards per carry, with only four rushes of longer than 20 yards all year. This offense is spotty and the defense isn’t strong enough to carry the team. After eight weeks of the season, I’m quite comfortable in the assessment that the Tennessee Titans are the team to beat in the AFC South. The Titans defense is very real, notching 16 sacks in their last four ballgames, a vastly underrated unit. Their smashmouth running game is primed to gash a Chargers defense that has had issues stopping the run. And Marcus Mariota is showing real signs of progress; a ‘bet-on’ QB against a defense of this caliber. The Titans have been underdogs of a field goal or more three times this season. They won SU at Detroit. They won SU at Miami. Their only loss as an underdog (at Houston) came via a punt return TD in a game that was tied 20-20 in the fourth quarter. Expect a competitive contest, right through the final gun. Take the Titans. |
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11-06-16 | Eagles v. Giants -2.5 | 23-28 | Win | 100 | 51 h 57 m | Show | |
Take the New York Giants (#456) I’m a little bit surprised by the betting market support for the Eagles in this game, considering the Giants are the better of these two teams, playing at home, off a bye week, laying less than a field goal. The markets apparently don’t have the G-men as the higher rated team. I do have the Giants as the higher rated team, primed to exploit the numerous Eagles weaknesses. Philly is 1-3 SU and ATS since their bye week, the lone win coming against the slumping, offensively challenged Vikings. This team is no longer the cocky, confident bunch that opened the season 3-0. Their offense is clearly broken since left tackle Lane Johnson got suspended. Over the past three weeks, the Eagles have gained 5.0, 4.4 and 4.1 yards per play. The league average is 5.5 yards per play. And Philly won’t have starting guard Allen Barbre this week either! Only one Eagles wide receiver – Nelson Agholor – has more than ten receptions for the entire season! Carson Wentz isn’t making many mistakes – only three interceptions on 228 pass attempts – but he’s not stretching opposing defenses either, and his receiving corps ranks among the weakest in football. The Eagles point totals in recent weeks have been inflated by a bevy of non-offensive touchdowns on defense and special teams; ranked #2 in the NFL behind only Minnesota in that ‘misleading offense’ category. The Giants have no such problems when it comes to downfield weapons. Odell Beckham Jr is 100% healthy again, and he notched 40 catches for 630 yards when he couldn’t even walk without a limp due to his hip pointer. Sterling Shepard has 31 catches for 334 yards. Victor Cruz is at 24 catches for 331 yards. All three of those downfield weapons are better than ANY receiver that Philly has on their roster. And I’ll take my chances with Eli Manning over Carson Wentz too, regardless of the Giants running back woes. The Giants have underachieved through the first half of the campaign. Ben McAdoo’s squad ranks in the Top 5 of the NFL in yards per play differential, outgaining their foes by more than a half yard per snap. Their three losses came against the Packers, Vikings and Redskins, three playoff caliber squads; all three better than Philly. This team is primed to make us some money in the weeks to come; a better team than their early season record would indicate. Meanwhile the Eagles have overachieved early, primed to take a step back down the stretch. They’ve been outgained on a yards-per-play basis this year, despite a handful of strong defensive efforts. Now playing their third straight game against an opponent coming off a bye, coming off a grueling OT loss, Philly has had to deal with a handful of off field distractions like the Josh Huff arrest and subsequent release. Huff had an impact kick return TD just two weeks ago. Expect his absence to be felt…… Take the Giants. |
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11-06-16 | Jets v. Dolphins -3.5 | 23-27 | Win | 100 | 51 h 56 m | Show | |
Take Miami (#460) Three weeks ago, the Dolphins lost at home to Tennessee by two touchdowns. Immediately following the game, Miami cut two of their starting offensive linemen from that game, thanks to the return of left tackle Brandon Albert and left guard Laremy Tunsil from injuries. Pro bowl center Mike Pouncey had returned from his own injury the previous week. All of a sudden – basically, out of nowhere – the Dolphins offensive line went from a bottom tier unit to a ‘well above average’ unit. If you never heard of Jay Ajayi a month ago, you weren’t the only one. Ajayi had only 31 carries through Miami’s first six games, including one where he was inactive (not due to injury, either! Then the Dolphins offensive line got healthy, Ajayi inherited the starters job and voila: back-2-back 200 yard rushing games, something that only Earl Campbell, OJ Simpson and Ricky Williams had ever done before, not a bad trio to be associated with. He averaged 8.2, and 7.6 yards per carry in those two contest, ripping off chunks against two solid defenses in Buffalo and Pittsburgh. Now the Dolphins have had a bye week to get even more comfortable running Adam Gase’s offense. Ryan Tannehill struggled early, but with a productive running game he’s thrown for more than 450 yards over the past two games, completing his passes at a 67% clip without a single interception. The more time Tannehill has in Gase’s offense, the better we can expect him to get. The Jets have won back-2-back games themselves, but the two bugaboos that have plagued New York all year were still on display in those victories – both against struggling bottom feeders. First and foremost, the Jets continue to give up big plays in the passing game on a weekly basis; exposed by nearly every quality receiver they’ve faced this season. Secondly, Ryan Fitzpatrick continues to struggle, only 25-48 for 348 yards in those two recent wins, despite playing with the lead in both contests. Since Fitzpatrick’s 374 yard game at Buffalo in Week 2 he’s thrown only four TD’s against ten interceptions. Now that’s a ratio worth betting against, especially with the rested Dolphins in double revenge after getting swept by New York last year. Short chalk worth laying! Take the Dolphins. |
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10-30-16 | Chargers +5.5 v. Broncos | 19-27 | Loss | -110 | 76 h 58 m | Show | |
Take San Diego (#267) The Chargers haven’t lost a game by more than six points all year. They’ve led inside the two minute warning in all seven previous games despite their 3-4 overall record. And coming off back-2-back wins, with a chance to get back to .500 against a hated divisional foe, there’s ample reason to believe that the Chargers remain a ‘bet-on’ team moving forward; now 4-1 ATS as an underdog, the lone ATS loss coming by four points at Indy back in September. Philip Rivers has been excellent, with a 102.4 QB rating and a 13-4 TD-INT ratio. Melvin Gordon scored a pair of TD’s on the ground last week and had his second six catch effort in October. Young downfield threats Tyrell Williams and Hunter Henry have combined for more than 50 catches. And first round draft pick Joey Bosa has notched four sacks in three weeks, an impact pass rusher on a defense that desperately needed an impact pass rusher! The mainstream media is going to talk up the ‘revenge’ angle after San Diego beat Denver 21-13 on Thursday Night Football in Week 6; a night where Broncos head coach Gary Kubiak was not with the team. First, Denver can get ‘revenge’ without covering the spread – they’d be quite happy to win by a field goal. Secondly, the Broncos have shown real vulnerability in recent weeks, especially on offense where the running game has been ‘hit or miss’ and the QB play from Trevor Siemian has declined since his injury. On a short week, coming off a blowout win on Monday Night Football against a very weak opposing quarterback, expect things to be significantly tougher for Denver this week. ‘Live dog’ here. Take the Chargers. |
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10-30-16 | Cardinals v. Panthers -2.5 | 20-30 | Win | 100 | 73 h 54 m | Show | |
Take Carolina (#270) My clients and I cashed an ugly winner betting against Arizona last week. Let me start this anti-Cardinals write-up with an excerpt from my last anti-Cardinals write-up. Numbers have been adjusted to reflect current realities: “The Cardinals have three wins this year. They beat the 3-4 Bucs. They beat the 1-6 49ers. And they beat the 2-5 Jets. That’s three bad teams. And that’s it. When the Cardinals have tried to step up in class even a little bit, it hasn’t been pretty. The Patriots beat them SU without Tom Brady or Rob Gronkowski, among others. The Bills blew them out. The Rams beat them up. Arizona managed only six points last week against Seattle. “Arizona has scored a grand total of seven first quarter points all year, getting off to slow starts week after week. Carson Palmer has declined noticeably and markedly from his excellent campaign last year. In the last two weeks, Palmer has only two completions of longer than 20 yards. For the season, his QB rating is down more than 20 points from last year and his yards-per-pass is down nearly a yard and a half! And Palmer isn’t healthy, missing practice again this week due to his bad hamstring.” ‘Zona is coming off a grueling OT tie with Seattle last Sunday Night, making another long cross country flight for an early start game. Their last time in this role – heading east for an early start game – was Week 3 at Buffalo, an ugly blowout loss. And we all remember what happened the last time Arizona travelled to Carolina; a 49-15 Panthers romp that sent them to the Super Bowl and ended the Cardinals season. Yes, Arizona is in revenge for that loss. Big deal! They were in revenge last week for a loss to Seattle last year, and that had exactly ZERO impact on the game. And the Cardinals will be facing a rested, focused Carolina squad looking to save their season following a bye week. Carolina’s season went into hyperdrive last year following their bye as they notched an impressive upset win at Seattle the following week. The Kansas City Chiefs started 1-5 last year, then reeled off ten straight wins to make the playoffs. Panthers head coach Ron Rivera: “We’ve still got 10 games left. We take care of business, do our job, play hard and you just never know (if we could make the playoffs)…. You look at what happened on Sunday – two teams in our division lose. Tampa had some success out west. But still ... for where we are, we’re right in the mix. That’s the way you’ve got to look at it. You’ve just got to keep believing you’ve got an opportunity. You never know. It may all come back to us.” The Panthers have gotten MUCH healthier in the secondary following the break, and they spent the bye week ‘self-scouting’ and emphasizing creating turnovers on defense like they did last year when they led the league in takeaways. Carson Palmer threw four interceptions and lost two fumbles the last time he saw this stop unit. Just sayin’…… Take the Panthers. |
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10-23-16 | Seahawks +2 v. Cardinals | Top | 6-6 | Win | 100 | 102 h 1 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Seattle (#475) The betting markets know that Seattle is better than Arizona, hence the Cardinals being priced at less than a field goal favorites at home. And frankly, I’m not convinced that Arizona should be favored in this game at all! The Cardinals have three wins this year. They beat a 2-3 Tampa team that isn’t 1-4 only because backup QB Derek Anderson was awful in a game that Cam Newton would have won for Carolina. They beat the 1-5 49ers. And they beat the 1-5 Jets. That’s three VERY bad teams. And that’s it. When the Cardinals have tried to step up in class even a little bit, it hasn’t been pretty. The Patriots beat them SU on this field without Tom Brady or Rob Gronkowski, among others. The Bills blew them out. The Rams beat them up, also on this field. In fact, for a supposedly ‘strong’ homefield edge, Arizona is 3-8 ATS in their last eleven home games, losing half of the ATS defeats in SU fashion as well. Arizona has scored a grand total of seven first quarter points all year, getting off to slow starts week after week. Seattle is not a team that you want to play from behind against. Carson Palmer has declined noticeably and markedly from his excellent campaign last year. Against the Jets last week, Palmer didn’t complete a pass of longer than 14 yards. For the season, his QB rating is down more than 20 points from last year and his yards-per-pass is down more than a full yard. It’s worth noting that Palmer suffered a hamstring strain on Monday Night and that he got a ‘veteran’s’ day off on a short week after playing on Monday Night, never a positive expectation situation. It’s also worth noting how much Palmer has struggled against the Seahawks in recent years, with more INT’s than TD’s against his divisional rival since arriving in Arizona at the start of the 2013 campaign. In the last ten meetings between these two teams, Arizona has scored more than 22 points only once. In fact, Seattle beat the Cardinals by 30 on this field last year. They beat Arizona by 29 on this field the previous season and by a TD on this field the year before that, part of a 5-2 SU and ATS run against the Cards since 2012. Pete Carroll has had Bruce Arians number, and I don’t think that changed this past offseason. Russell Wilson trumps Carson Palmer at this stage of their collective careers, and it’s not even that close. Doug Baldwin and Jimmy Graham might well be the two best receivers on the field. Seattle’s offensive line improved by leaps and bounds following their bye week, with legendary OL guru Tom Cable working his magic. Wilson suffered only one sack without a single turnover last week in the win over Atlanta. But I LOVE the fact that the Seahawks defense got torched by Matt Ryan last week in their post-bye game; a situation that moves this game into Big Ticket territory. Make no mistake about it – this defense is still truly elite, and you can be sure they’re focused this week after last Sunday’s second half debacle. Pro Bowler Kam Chancellor – the defensive play caller on the field – was out last week and it showed. He’s expected back this week, as is defensive ends Michael Bennett and Frank Clark. I expect that trio to have an impact here. We haven’t seen the Seahawks in primetime yet this year. Expect the superior team to shine when the lights are shining bright. Big Ticket: Take the Seahawks. |
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10-23-16 | Colts v. Titans -2.5 | 34-26 | Loss | -116 | 95 h 43 m | Show | |
Take Tennessee (#466) My clients and I made a bet on the Colts Under 9.5 wins prior to the start of the season. Here’s an excerpt from that write-up: “One key difference between Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck early in their careers is that Manning had Hall of Fame caliber receivers and a good offensive line. Luck doesn’t even have an above average WR on the roster this side of undersized TY Hilton. They drafted four linemen; a unit that is most assuredly in flux. Luck might well have Manning’s capabilities, but he certainly doesn’t have the surrounding talent – this has NOT been a well-managed organization since Bill Polian was fired following their 2-14 debacle in 2011…the season that allowed them to draft Andrew Luck. While the Colts offense has holes, their defense is worse! In fact, Pro Football Focus ranked Indy’s roster #28 out of 32 NFL teams in overall talent. Frankly, I don’t disagree with that assessment one iota. This team has had severe salary cap constraints, constraints that were not lessened by Luck signing the single richest contract in NFL history: six years, $140 million with $87 million guaranteed and a $32 million signing bonus. Contracts like that don’t leave much room for many roster upgrades.” Those preseason assessments have played out exactly as expected. Luck’s been pretty good. His offensive line stinks; sacked 14 times in the last three games alone. The skill position talent surrounding him is mediocre at best. And the Colts hideous defense has blown fourth quarter leads in losses to the likes of Detroit and Houston; not exactly elite level competition. After six weeks of the season, I’m quite comfortable in the assessment that the Tennessee Titans are the team to beat in the AFC South. Tennessee has lost nine straight to the Colts, including a 35-33 heartbreaker on this field last year. So, to say that Tennessee has this game circled on their schedule is something of an understatement. Titans tight end Delanie Walker: “Probably (the Colts) think they can come in here and beat us and get back on track. But this is a different team, different organization, different coaches. Our mindset is to have them come up here and we've got to put that whooping on them. That's the only way we're thinking, is get the W." The Titans defense is very real, notching six sacks in each of the last two games, a vastly underrated unit. Their smashmouth running game is primed to gash a Colts defense that can’t stop the run. And Marcus Mariota is showing real signs of progress; a ‘bet-on’ QB against a defense of this caliber. Statement game for the home favorite. Take the Titans. |
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10-23-16 | Vikings -2.5 v. Eagles | 10-21 | Loss | -115 | 95 h 42 m | Show | |
Take Minnesota (#453) Don’t underestimate the loss of Eagles offensive tackle Lane Johnson, who started serving his league mandated ten game suspension last week. Without him, rookie QB Carson Wentz was under pressure all day from a mediocre Redskins pass rush, sacked five times. Philly suffered their worst offensive performance of the season, held under 240 total yards. Both of these teams continue to be priced incorrectly in the betting markets. The Eagles hot start forced the books to vault a team lined at 6.5 wins by opening day into a ‘better than average’ range. That hot start? They beat the Browns and the Bears, both Bottom 5 NFL teams. The one strong showing against the Steelers doesn’t look quite as good now that Pittsburgh looked just as bad in Miami last week. Philly should still be priced as a sub .500 team, but the markets haven’t gotten there…..yet. Meanwhile, the Vikings have lousy offensive stats and an NFL best turnover differential. The betting markets don’t trust their offense and don’t seem to believe that this defense can continue to force turnovers in bunches. That’s the EXACT same rationale sharps used to bet against Carolina last year….losing week after week after week. This Vikings team is 5-0 ATS this year and 18-3 ATS in their last 21 ballgames, a remarkable level of achievement, yet the markets STILL aren’t willing to price them like an elite team. Worried about Minnesota being ‘fat and happy’ off the bye while Philly is hungry off an 0-2 road trip? Don’t be! Doug Pederson is a first year, first time head coach and I’m not particularly impressed with his ‘circle the wagons’ skill at this stage of his career. Meanwhile, take a gander at some of these Vikings quotes and I don’t think you’ll be too worried about the best coaching staff this side of New England having their team ready for Sam Bradford’s return to Philly. Mike Zimmer put his coaches through a five-day ‘self-scouting mission’ during the bye – no R&R there. “ It's 0-0 now and we start a new season. We just forget about what's happened in the past and we start moving on. For us, it's an 11-game season and we'll see where we're at then." Defensive end Everson Griffen: “I'm not trying to compare ourselves to any other team. We're the Vikings. Our biggest thing is to keep doing what we've been doing—playing smart, Vikings ball — and win. We can be special. But it's up to us." Cornerback Captain Munnerlyn after their first post-bye practice on Monday: “That might be one of the best practices coming back from the bye I've been a part of.” Cheap price to lay with the superior team. Take the Vikings. |
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10-16-16 | Chiefs +1 v. Raiders | Top | 26-10 | Win | 100 | 98 h 45 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Kansas City (#269) Oakland is 4-1. To the casual observer, the Raiders are clearly improved from any recent version, a ‘bet-on’ team’ moving forward. I disagree, rather strongly. The Raiders are 4-1 because they’ve won four coin-flip games, not because they’ve dominated anybody. The beat the Saints on a last second two point conversion. They beat the Titans despite getting outgained only thanks to a fourth down incompletion from the Raiders 12 yard line. They beat the Ravens thanks to a missed two point try, outgained on the ground and through the air. Then last week they beat the Chargers because San Diego couldn’t execute their last second field goal try. Oakland has made a handful of key plays, true, but don’t be fooled into thinking that Oakland is anything but a mediocre squad right now. That’s particularly true on the defensive side of the football. The Raiders rank dead last in the NFL, allowing a whopping 7.0 yards per play, dead last in the NFL by a wide margin. The league average is 5.5 yards per play allowed, and the #31 team in the NFL (Indy) is a full half yard better per play then the Raiders have been. For a ‘fat and happy’ team off three straight last minute wins, those continuing defensive woes are a major concern moving forward, especially for a team that is 7-23 ATS in their last 30 tries as favorites, including an 0-4 ATS mark as home favorites in the Jack Del Rio era. KC has dominated this series, winning five of the last six meetings against Oakland, including a pair of blowouts by two TD’s or more on this field. And KC is truly in a ‘bet-on’ spot here. They are coming off their worst loss in the Andy Reid era – an embarrassing national TV 43-14 blowout at Pittsburgh. They had a bye last week, and my numbers show Andy Reid with a 15-2 SU record following a bye during his tenures with the Eagles and Chiefs. Now that’s a track record of support! KC is MUCH healthier off the bye, particularly on the defensive side of the football, where they have struggled to generate a pass rush early. They’ll have a healthy Jamaal Charles running the football her, and we can expect a steady diet of tough, between-the-tackles running here; something the Raiders are ill equipped to stop. KC is the better team, in the better spot, still priced as a short underdog as I post this writeup. Catching points, the Chiefs are worthy of a Big Ticket sized wager. Big Ticket: Take Kansas City. |
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10-16-16 | Rams +3 v. Lions | 28-31 | Push | 0 | 95 h 41 m | Show | |
Take the LA Rams (#263) I can do this write-up in a single sentence – These Lions can’t be laying a field goal or more to anybody! Detroit’s two wins this year both came on last minute drives, one of which was set up by a turnover that set the up just outside field goal range. It’s surely worth noting that was one of only three takeaways the Lions defense has created in their first five games, a bottom tier defense that cannot be trusted to get stops. Detroit has allowed a whopping 6.3 yards per play defensively (league average is 5.5, LA allows 5.3). Only two teams are worse. The Lions are already riddled with key injuries at tight end, running back, linebacker and on the defensive line. They’ll be without Haloti Ngata here, and Eric Ebron, with the likes of Ziggy Ansah, DeAndre Levy both very questionable. The Lions lost in their lone previous try as a home favorite this year, blowing the game late against Tennessee, just as they did last week against the Eagles (before Philly gave it back at the end); not a ‘Gee, I feel good about laying points with this team’ type of squad, ESPECIALLY off a win. The Rams statistical profile isn’t pretty, hence the noticeable lack of betting market respect for LA in recent weeks. And the Rams have a handful of key injuries of their own, most notably cornerback Trumaine Johnson (out) and defensive end Robert Quinn(questionable). But stats don’t win NFL games. LA is dominating on special teams, blocking another kick last week. Special teams dominance correlates very poorly with box score results – you don’t get yards when you have short fields or non-offensive TD’s. LA has already won road games at Tampa and Arizona as underdogs in their last two tries. They beat up the Lions last December, with Todd Gurley and the LA backs averaging better than seven yards per carry while gaining more than 200 yards on the ground. And I’m very interested in the concept here: LA off a loss, Detroit off a win, and Detroit laying points. Take the LA Rams. |
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10-09-16 | Falcons v. Broncos -4.5 | 23-16 | Loss | -107 | 53 h 35 m | Show | |
Take Denver (#466) The Atlanta Falcons have put up some downright sick offensive numbers through the first four weeks of regular season action. Matt Ryan leads the NFL in passing yards by a wide margin and he’s tied with Big Ben for the lead in touchdown passes. Julio Jones leads the NFL in receiving yards and 20+ yard ‘big play’ receptions. The Falcons rank #1 in yards, #1 in points and their 7.5 yards per play ranks more than a full yard better than the #2 team in the NFL. Despite those impressive numbers, I have no hesitation stepping in front of Atlanta here. Look who the Falcons have put up those numbers against! One dismal defensive team after the next. They lit up New Orleans and Oakland, ranked #31 and #32 in just about every key defensive statistical category. They lost at home to the Bucs, despite a big day from Ryan, and Tampa’s D has been a sieve all year (remember that Rams game!). And they beat Carolina last week, when the Panthers injuries forced them to start a secondary full of rookies with an inexplicably awful defensive gameplan from coordinator Sean McDermott. The Denver Broncos defense is a completely different animal compared to anything the Falcons have faced this season. In fact, the Broncos defense this year has been even better than the defense that carried them to a Super Bowl title last February. They have completely shut down four potent offenses already, allowing just 4.3 yards per play while holding the likes of Cam Newton, Andrew Luck, Andy Dalton and Jameis Winston to a combined 61.3 QB rating. Their sack percentage is more than double last year’s, and their opposing QB rating is more than ten points better. This is a ‘bet-on’ defense all the way! Atlanta doesn’t have a ‘bet-on’ defense. In fact, they’ve got a ‘bet-against’ stop unit, ranked #27 in yards per play allowed; more than six yard per snap. Meanwhile, the Broncos offense has really been clicking the last few weeks. My sources indicate that there’s still a pretty good chance for a Trevor Siemian start behind center for the Broncos this week, but based on what Paxton Lynch showed me last week, I’m comfortable backing Denver regardless of which QB they start on Sunday. Take the Broncos. |
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10-09-16 | Eagles v. Lions +3.5 | 23-24 | Win | 100 | 50 h 32 m | Show | |
Big Ticket: Take Detroit (#462) This Big Ticket falls into the ‘basic strategy’ element of NFL Handicapping 101 – don’t overreact to one bad game. Last week at this time, the Detroit Lions were -1 over Philly on the lookahead line. That’s not some stale number from over the summer – it’s a bettable number from last week. Philly had a bye last week. Now Detroit is +3.5 in many locations; +3 with no juice in others. That’s a pretty big reaction to one team playing one crappy game outdoors, on grass against a hungry and pretty desperate foe. This week, it’s the Lions who are the hungry and pretty desperate foe. At 1-3, coming off a real stinker, Detroit’s season is on the line this week, and they know it. Every quote coming out of the locker room has been of the ‘This is a huge week, we’ve got to step up here’ variety. Catching more than a field goal in these type of spots gets me very interested, especially given the Lions true dislike of former head coach Jim Schwartz, now the Eagles defensive coordinator. I expect the Lions to bring their ‘A” game here. Some of the big line move had to do with Detroit’s injury report. But the Lions got #1 receiver Marvin Jones back on the practice field yesterday, and safety Tavon Wilson is expected to suit up on Sunday, so the injury news isn’t all bad. There’s some strong anti-Philly sentiment mixed in here, enough to bump this play up to Big Ticket status. The Eagles beat two bottom feeders to open the season, one of which came on national TV. Then they played the best game they’ll play all year, blowing out the Steelers, and earning a boatload of market respect off that one performance. It’s surely worth noting that Philly has yet to turn the ball over this season, a trend that cannot and will not last indefinitely, making them look better than they really are. Did the Eagles really want a bye week right there? Is the leadership in place to keep guys focused off the bye? Is Philly ready to assume a road favorite’s role against a hungry and desperate foe? My answers? No, no and no! Squares bet teams, sharps bet numbers, and +3.5 is one hell of a good number for this matchup! Big Ticket: Take the Lions. |
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