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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-04-18 | 76ers v. Pistons UNDER 216.5 | 115-108 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 14 m | Show | |
Take Detroit – Philadelphia UNDER (#503-504) The betting markets sent this total skyrocketing up in early betting action on Wednesday, with Pistons big man Andre Drummond downgraded to ‘questionable’ for tonight’s contest. Drummond is a defensive fixture for Detroit – he’s only missed three games in the last four years, so it’s not like Detroit has much of a track record playing without him And the Sixers offense has been rolling, averaging 117 points per game over their last ten contests thanks to elite level offensive efficiency numbers without Joel Embiid in the lineup. All of that Over $$ pouring in has given us legitimate value with an UNDER wager here. Lost in Philly’s recent offensive execution has been their defensive intensity; holding each of their last five foes to 104 or less while cashing five straight Under bets. This defense has been flat out ‘elite’ of late, holding foes under 40% shooting during this span. The Pistons have very quietly won seven of their last eight ballgames; the lone loss coming at Houston in a 100-96 OT loss. Note that final score against the NBA’s best offense – the Rockets; a game that stayed Under by 16.5 points even AFTER overtime! The Pistons, too, are trending towards the Under of late (6-3 to the Under in their last nine games), and they, too, are playing intense defense on a nightly basis, holding foes under 100 points per game in their last five contests. Philly won’t have two of their top four scorers, with elite perimeter threat Darko Saric expected to join Embiid on the sidelines in street clothes this evening. The Pistons are playing without their leading scorer, Blake Griffin – if Drummond doesn’t suit up, this team is primed to jack up a whole bunch of perimeter jumpers tonight; bad news against a team that’s pretty darn good at defending them! Take the Under. |
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03-09-18 | Knicks v. Bucks UNDER 214 | 112-120 | Loss | -101 | 7 h 19 m | Show | |
Take New York – Milwaukee UNDER (#807-808) Here’s the quote from Knicks head coach Jeff Hornacek, explaining to the media about how the Knicks aren’t ‘really’ tanking: "We're trying to evaluate our three young point guards. Moving forward, we got to make decisions on those guys. We have to play them as many minutes as possible. Jarrett has done a great job for us this year. But we're at the point of the season we need to take a look at those guys and give them bigger minutes. It's hard to judge them on five minutes here and there." To call the Knicks point guard play right now ‘atrocious’ would not be an overstatement. Newly acquired Emmanuel Mudiay, underachieving Trey Burke and Belgian rookie Frank Ntilikina are all getting time to show what they can and can’t do. In their 111-87 loss to Portland earlier in the week, that trio combined to shoot 5-28. The starter – Mudiay – committed six turnovers with his four assists. Look for the Knicks to struggle to reach the century mark once again this evening. It’s not like Milwaukee is lighting up the scoreboard these days either! The Bucks have been an Under machine in recent weeks: 5-1 to the Under in their last six ballgames, with four of the five Unders cashing by double digit margins. The Bucks have point guard issues as well, with key reserves Matthew Dellavedova and Malcolm Brogdon both sitting out with injuries. Heck, the ancient Jason Terry just got 30 minutes of playing time in their loss to Houston earlier in the week! I’m not expecting the offensive efficiency for either squad to impress anyone tonight! Take the Under. |
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02-12-18 | Knicks v. 76ers UNDER 211 | 92-108 | Win | 100 | 7 h 15 m | Show | |
Take New York – Philadelphia UNDER (#701-702) The Knicks offense is pretty ugly right now while Jeff Hornacek plays ‘point guard shuffle’ on a nightly basis and New York tries to execute without injured leading scorer Kristaps Porzingas. Jarrett Jack got the start yesterday at the point in Indiana, with newly acquired Emmanuel Mudiay, underachieving Trey Burke and Belgian rookie Frank Ntilikina getting minutes as well. Prior to yesterday’s offensive outburst (113 points & a 27-11 assist-to-turnover ratio), New York had been held to 96 or less in five straight games while averaging just 87 ppg in their previous five contests; cashing Under bets in each and every one of those ballgames. And while Indiana didn’t play a whole lot of defense against the Knicks yesterday, the 76ers defense is no joke these days, primed to shut New York down. Philly now ranks #4 in the NBA for the full season in points per 100 possessions allowed on defense, allowing 102.8. On their current homestand, that defense has been dynamite, allowing just 91.2 PP/100 while going 3-0 SU and ATS; part of the 76ers 4-1 run to the Under in their last five games and their 4-1 run to the Under in their last five at home. Philly is playing their third game in four days; not expected to push the pace tonight. The Knicks are on the second of back-2-backs, and their offensive execution is bottom tier right now. Expect a relatively low scoring affair that stays UNDER the total. Take the UNDER. |
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01-28-18 | Lakers v. Raptors UNDER 218 | 111-123 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 25 m | Show | |
Take Toronto – LA Lakers UNDER (#807-808) Toronto has a defensive mindset these days, particularly at home. The Raptors have held four of their last five opponents to 97 points or less. Their last three home games stayed Under the total by more than 25 points each time. And they’ve just had a bit of a break, playing only two games during the past eight days. Point guard Fred Van Vleet, talking about the extra practice sessions this week: “I think we got back to our defensive fundamentals.” Head coach Dwayne Casey talked to his team Saturday about being ready from the start against the Lakers. "They're going to come out guns a-blazing. They're a running team." The Raptors transition defense is nothing short of outstanding, and they’re putting extra emphasis on getting back today. Expect the Lakers to be forced to do most of their scoring through their halfcourt offense, not an area of strength these days. LA, too, is putting extra emphasis on defense these days, and it’s paying off – they’ve won four straight and eight of their last ten while going 6-3 to the Under in their last nine. Head coach Luke Walton: "Defensive stops. That is how you win consistently. So many NBA games come down to the end, and the players in this league are so talented that if you are not able to count on getting stops, it is 50-50 who wins those games." The team is buying into Walton’s approach right now. Forward Brandon Ingram: "We're staying together, we're thinking defense first. The coaches talk about it every single day, every time we practice, every time we come into games, and we just talk about the defensive end first before anything.” Take the Under. |
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01-26-18 | Jazz v. Raptors UNDER 208.5 | 97-93 | Win | 100 | 7 h 22 m | Show | |
Take Utah – Toronto UNDER (#805-806) It’s no accident that the Jazz have seen their defensive improve by leaps and bounds since Rudy Gobert returned to the lineup last week. Gobert has blocked at least three shots in each of his first four games back; a difference maker in the low post. Utah just held Detroit to 95 points in a game that went to overtime; winning SU despite shooting less than 40% from the floor and making only 12 free throw attempts. If you watched the game, you already know – the Pistons certainly didn’t have many open looks. With Gobert in the lineup, the Jazz have been totaled higher than 205 only twice -- once against the Rockets, once against the Clippers; two very clear ‘Over’ teams when it comes to both offensive efficiency and pace. Utah is most assuredly not an elite offensive team, especially with perimeter sharpshooter and second leading scorer Rodney Hood expected to miss again tonight. Yet we’re looking at a total north of 205 tonight in a game where the Raptors, too, are primed to bring a strong defensive effort. Toronto has held three of their last four opponents to 93 points or less. Their last two home games stayed Under the total by more than 25 points each time. And they’ve just had a bit of a break, with only one game during the past week. Point guard Fred Van Vleet, talking about the extra practice sessions this week: “I think we got back to our defensive fundamentals.” Every meeting between these two teams since 2015 has been totaled between 190.5 and 198.5, yet the markets have this one priced a full ten points higher. Let’s take advantage! Take the Under |
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01-18-18 | 76ers v. Celtics UNDER 208 | Top | 89-80 | Win | 100 | 7 h 53 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Boston – Philadelphia UNDER (#503-504) Both teams can be expected to bring their ‘A’ game on defense tonight. And when these two teams bring their ‘A’ games on defense, we can expect points to be very hard to come by, start to finish. The Celtics are the best defensive team in the NBA, by a fairly wide margin. But Boston is coming off a dismal defensive effort in their home loss to the Pelicans earlier in the week. Head Coach Brad Stevens, following the game: “I thought our lack of defense started in transition all night. I thought we were really, really behind for whatever reason. They were pushing the tempo. They did a great job of that. They only played eight guys, so we have no excuses not to be back. But I thought they really hurt us in transition.” I’m VERY interested in betting Boston games Under the total following a rare ‘defensive meltdown’ game. Let’s not forget that the Celtics literally have an elite defender at every position. Based on the ‘real +/-‘ advanced metric defensive stats, the likes of Terry Rozier, Marcus Smart, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Al Horford and Aron Baynes all rank among the top players at their respective positions defensively. 76ers head coach Brett Brown knows what’s coming. His Sixers are 0-3 SU, 0-3 ATS against the Celtics this season because they haven’t been able to solve Boston’s defense. His quote, following the loss in London last week: “'This team that we just played today is the best defensive team in the NBA and we felt all of that. When you look at their individual defensive players to a man, they're as strong positionally as any team in the NBA.'' But the Sixers defense is no joke either. Two years ago, Philly ranked #25 in the NBA defensively on a points per 100 possessions basis. Last year, they ranked #17. This year, Philly is at #5; a notable and significant improvement. That’s bad news for Boston on a night where starting point guard Kyrie Irving is listed as ‘questionable’ with a sore shoulder. Prior to the uptempo affair in London last week, both previous Celtics – 76ers matchups this season were dead nuts Unders, cashing by a combined 28.5 points. I expect tonight’s game to be a defensive scrum, not a high octane shootout. Big Ticket: Take the Under. |
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01-11-18 | Clippers v. Kings OVER 210.5 | 121-115 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show | |
Take Sacramento – LA Clippers OVER (#505-506) Before the Kings 99-86 loss to the Lakers earlier in the week, head coach Dave Joerger told reporters that he wanted to see a faster pace. What happened? A brick fest, filled with turnovers, as Sacramento shot less than 35% from the floor while giving it away16 times. Even 25 Lakers turnovers couldn’t make up for their shooting woes. That being said, the pace was there for a MUCH higher scoring affair than what actually transpired. Joerger, prior to tonight’s game: “We really try to pick up our stuff in practice, so the game almost feels a little slower. And try to make them play, fast, fast, fast and make mistakes and that's OK, because we learn from them.” Clearly, we can expect the Kings to continue pushing the pace vs. the Clippers this evening. For a team that ranks #27 out of 30 NBA teams in full season pace rating, a change of pace to uptempo basketball will take time for an appropriate market adjustment, especially after that debacle vs. the Lakers that stayed 28 points Under the total. The Clippers have been an Over machine in recent weeks, cashing nine Overs in their last ten ballgames. In their last five games, LA has averaged 113 ppg and allowed 113 ppg. The losing team in Clippers games scored at least 105 in all five of those contests. With all the injuries the Clips have suffered this season, Doc Rivers hasn’t been able to create any defensive rhythm for his squad, but they’ve still got plenty of shooters. They hung 122 on the Kings just after Christmas in another game that cashed Over bets with ease. Expect a shootout! Take the Over. |
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12-19-17 | Cavs v. Bucks OVER 216.5 | 116-119 | Win | 100 | 8 h 24 m | Show | |
Take Milwaukee – Cleveland OVER (#505-506) These two teams have played twice already this season, cashing Over bets both times. The Cavs have dissected the Bucks defense like so many others that they face – without trouble, hanging 124 and 116 on Milwaukee in those two meetings. And frankly, most teams are scoring on the Bucks without too much trouble these days – they’ve allowed 115+ in each of their last three contests, with opponents hitting better than 48% of their shots against Jason Kidd’s squad in their last five games. Milwaukee didn’t have point guard Eric Bledsoe on the roster in those first two meetings. With him in the lineup, their offensive production has been transformed without a dramatic increase in their pace of play. The result of that? Milwaukee has now scored 100+ in 12 straight games, 10-1-1 to the Over during that span. That’s an ongoing trend that has gotten zero publicity and is attracting no betting market attention because it’s not about the advanced metrics -- the Bucks pace of play isn’t going through a major transformation. Here’s the kicker, the quote from Coach Kidd AFTER this run of Overs for Milwaukee: “Right now for some reason we're just not making open shots, but we've got to keep getting those shots and hopefully they turn into makes.” Against the Cavs shoddy defense (#27 in defensive efficiency, allowing 107.9 points per 100 possessions), look for those shots to ‘turn into makes’ tonight! Take the OVER. |
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12-08-17 | Celtics v. Spurs OVER 197.5 | 102-105 | Win | 100 | 7 h 7 m | Show | |
Take Boston – San Antonio OVER (#515-516) There’s a fair bit of talk in the betting world about how good these two defenses are; hence the relatively low total tonight. But I haven’t seen or heard much about how well these two teams are playing offensively right now; two ‘bet-on’ squads on the offense end of the court. The Spurs got eight different players into double digits in their 117-105 win over the Heat on Wednesday, and dished 30 assists as a team. Manu Ginobili: “The ball really moved”. Gregg Popovich: “Getting 30 assists is always wonderful….it is great to see.” Boston had 25 assists on 36 made baskets against the Mavs in their last outing, also showing tremendous ball movement and getting a steady diet of good looks at the basket. Al Hoford: “This is good. We want to keep building on it." It’s surely worth noting that the shorthanded Celtics have scored 108+ six times in their last seven ballgames; part of an 8-2 run to the OVER in their last ten contests. When we think of Brad Stevens facing off against Gregg Popovich, we don’t tend to think of ‘shootouts’, yet that’s exactly what this series has produced. Each of the last four meetings between these two squads has flown Over the total. None of those games were lined higher than 199.5, yet the losing team broke 100 in three of those four meetings. Expect more of the same tonight! Take the Over. |
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11-28-17 | Nuggets v. Jazz OVER 208 | 77-106 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 12 m | Show | |
Take Utah – Denver OVER (#507-508) When Rudy Gobert got hurt, the Utah Jazz ranked #2 in the NBA in points per possession allowed on defense, an elite defensive ballclub. In eight games without their low post shotblocker, the Jazz rank #19 in points per possession allowed on defense and #24 in percentage of available rebounds that they’ve nabbed, leading to easy putbacks off the offensive glass. Six of Utah’s eight opponents since the Gobert injury have scored 106+ against them and the only two that didn’t – Orlando and Chicago – rank among the weakest offensive teams in basketball. Facing a Nuggets team that wants to push the pace at every reasonable opportunity, look for the Jazz defense to get exposed once again this evening. But Utah’s offense has improved by leaps and bounds of late, hanging 110+ three times in their last four ballgames. Head coach Quin Snyder, after the Jazz hung 121 on the Bucks over the weekend: “I thought we were unbelievably unselfish. Offensively we were really connected and trying to help each other.” It’s surely worth noting that Utah has set season highs for assists in a game twice in their last four contests. And it’s also worth noting that the Nuggets defense on the road has been hideous (125+ allowed twice on their recent three game trip), a big part of the reason they’ve been moneyburners (3-6 ATS) on the highway all year. Expect a shootout! Take the Over. |
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11-25-17 | Blazers v. Wizards UNDER 203.5 | 108-105 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 28 m | Show | |
Take Portland – Washington UNDER (#705-706) If you’re a regular client of mine, you already know the drill. We’ve been riding the Wizards Under of late, an emerging trend that has been playing great dividends in recent weeks. Washington had cashed nine consecutive Unders (very quietly, waaaaaaay underneath the radar) prior to their last game against Charlotte. The defensive effort wasn’t there against the Hornets, resulting in a 129-124 overtime defeat that flew over the total in regulation. Now the Wizards have lost three of their last four. Sparkplug point guard John Wall has been shut down for a week or two, but Wall left his teammates with this quote, following the Wizards loss to Charlotte: “It’s terrible. The fault was defensively, giving up offensive rebounds and those 50-50 balls…..That’s where they won the game.” It’s surely worth noting that prior to allowing the 129 vs. Charlotte, Washington had allowed 100 points or less in each of their previous seven contests. Wall’s absence (with Tim Frazier taking over as the starting point guard), leaves Washington much weaker (and much slower) on offense. This has all the makings of a ‘step-up’ defensive spot. And their opponent, Portland, currently ranks #3 in the NBA in defensive efficiency, despite a wild 127-125 shootout in Brooklyn yesterday. Damian Lillard, following that victory: “I think we played a really good offensive game….. We just gotta figure out how to have those kind of offensive games and not lose the defense.” Prior to yesterday’s game, the Blazers, like the Wizards, had been bringing it every night on the defensive end, holding each of their previous nine foes to 101 points or less. With both teams likely to step up defensively here, let’s ride this Wizards Run of Unders one more time. Take the UNDER. |
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11-20-17 | Wizards v. Bucks UNDER 207 | 99-88 | Win | 100 | 8 h 54 m | Show | |
Take Washington – Milwaukee UNDER (#513-514) My clients and I have cashed a handful of winning bets riding the Wizards under-the-radar 78-0 Run to the Under. I have no hesitation coming right back with another Under wager on Monday, a game where Wizards sparkplug point guard John Wall is likely to be limited (knee) if he suits up at all. Let me start with an excerpt from my Wizards Under write-up from yesterday. Numbers have been adjusted slightly to reflect current realities: “Wizards head coach Scott Brooks was not happy with his team’s collective defense through the opening stretch of the season and he wasn’t shy about letting his team know about his displeasure. And this veteran squad has responded to Brooks tutelage. Since allowing 122 and 130 points in back-2-back home losses to the Suns and Cavs to open November, the Wizards have stepped it up on the defensive end of the court in a big way. They’ve cashed eight straight Under bets as a result, an emerging trend worth riding tonight.” “John Wall, following another shutdown defensive effort: “We took on the challenge of trying to guard our man one on one. When guys were getting beat back door, someone was there to help. We just took care of each other’s back, no matter what.” Bradley Beal, following a win at Miami: “We have had success keeping teams under 100 points and getting wins. When we continue to have a defensive mindset, we're a really good team. We showed a glimpse of it (Wednesday)." Wall didn’t suit up yesterday, but the Wizards defense was still intense, holding Toronto to 40 second half points; another game that finished double digits Under the total. He might play tonight; I’m comfortable riding this Under trend whether Wall suits up or not. And the Bucks certainly play right into the ‘defensive mindset’ expectation this evening after a defensive no-show on Saturday at Dallas; the first time in five games that they had allowed more than 103 points. Bottom line – I’m going to ride this emerging Wizards Under trend, with the markets not seeming to show much interest in it…..yet! Take the Under. |
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11-19-17 | Wizards v. Raptors UNDER 212.5 | 91-100 | Win | 100 | 4 h 17 m | Show | |
Take Washington – Toronto UNDER (#703-704) My clients and I have cashed several winning bets riding the Wizards under-the-radar 7-0 Run to the Under. I have no hesitation coming right back with another Under wager in early start action today, a game where Wizards sparkplug point guard John Wall will be limited (knee) if he suits up at all. Let me start with an excerpt from my Wizards Under write-up from Friday Night. Numbers have been adjusted slightly to reflect current realities: “Wizards head coach Scott Brooks was not happy with his team’s collective defense through the opening stretch of the season and he wasn’t shy about letting his team know about his displeasure. And this veteran squad has responded to Brooks tutelage. Since allowing 122 and 130 points in back-2-back home losses to the Suns and Cavs to open November, the Wizards have stepped it up on the defensive end of the court in a big way. They’ve cashed seven straight Under bets as a result, an emerging trend worth riding tonight.” “John Wall, following another shutdown defensive effort: “We took on the challenge of trying to guard our man one on one. When guys were getting beat back door, someone was there to help. We just took care of each other’s back, no matter what.” Bradley Beal, following a win at Miami in the first half of this home & home set: “We have had success keeping teams under 100 points and getting wins. When we continue to have a defensive mindset, we're a really good team. We showed a glimpse of it (Wednesday)." But Brooks was not amused by the Wizards defensive effort against Miami in the rematch on Friday, despite the fact that the Heat were held to 91 points on 41% shooting. “We got down on ourselves. When we got down on ourselves, we put our heads down instead of running back and making up for it on the other end. The stats basically tell you that. They had 19 fast-break points in the first half." I’m expecting a step-up effort defensively from the Wizards today, and the Raptors just held the Knicks to 84 points on Friday Night in a strong defensive showing of their own. Bottom line – I’m going to ride this emerging Wizards Under trend, with the markets not seeming to show much interest in it…..yet! Take the Under. |
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11-17-17 | Pelicans v. Nuggets OVER 220.5 | 114-146 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show | |
Take New Orleans – Denver OVER (#719-720) Denver’s season long numbers show ‘middle of the pack’ pace ratings; not an uptempo, breakneck type of pace. New Orleans has played faster than Denver, but the Pelicans, too, haven’t played at a blistering pace on a consistent basis – yet! Both teams are playing faster now. New Orleans just got Rajon Rondo back from injury, giving them another strong passer in the backcourt. Big men Boogie and Brow are both enjoying CAREER high offensive efficiency numbers, finally fully acclimated to Alvin Gentry’s offense. And the results are very clear. The Pelicans have reached 111 four times in their last five games while shooting at a 52% clip, a stellar offensive ballclub right now. Denver’s early season numbers were weak on the offensive end of the court, and they cashed five consecutive unders to open the season, held to 105 or less in every game. That was then, this is now. On their last homestand, the Nuggets hung 129 on Toronto, 108 on Golden State!!, 112 on Brooklyn and 125 on Orlando, showing the type of ball movement that made head coach Mike Malone smile. But Denver is coming off a particularly flat effort at Portland on Wednesday, held to 82 points on 35.7% shooting; a wire-2-wire blowout loss. With starting guard Gary Harris back in the lineup this evening, sparkplug Will Barton heads back to his normal role as a primary scorer off the bench. Look for Denver offensive mojo to get back on track here in a highly entertaining uptempo Friday Night Shootout! Take the Over. |
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11-17-17 | Heat v. Wizards UNDER 208 | 91-88 | Win | 100 | 6 h 15 m | Show | |
Take Washington – Miami UNDER (#703-704) Wizards head coach Scott Brooks was not happy with his team’s collective defense through the opening stretch of the season and he wasn’t shy about letting his team know about his displeasure. And this veteran squad has responded to Brooks tutelage. Since allowing 122 and 130 points in back-2-back home losses to the Suns and Cavs to open November, the Wizards have stepped it up on the defensive end of the court in a big way. They’ve cashed six straight Under bets as a result, an emerging trend worth riding tonight. John Wall, following another shutdown defensive effort: “We took on the challenge of trying to guard our man one on one. When guys were getting beat back door, someone was there to help. We just took care of each other’s back, no matter what.” Bradley Beal, following the win at Miami in the first half of this home & home set: “We have had success keeping teams under 100 points and getting wins. When we continue to have a defensive mindset, we're a really good team. We showed a glimpse of it (Wednesday)." Miami had no answers to the Wizards defensive pressure on Wednesday Night, taking one contested shot after the next, failing to reach 20 points in two of the four quarters. But the Heat are taking the challenge of slowing down Wall and Beal very seriously after that duo torched Miami for 53 points on Wednesday. Head coach Eric Spoelstra: “It seemed like they were living in the paint and at the free-throw line.” I’m not expecting that to happen two games in a row against a solid defensive squad. Take the Under. |
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11-15-17 | 76ers v. Lakers UNDER 221 | 115-109 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 28 m | Show | |
Take LA Lakers – Philadelphia UNDER (#721-722) The betting markets have been DEAD WRONG about the Lakers totals of late. And with Over money pouring in once again on the Lake-show, I have no hesitation getting involved with an Under bet this evening. Last year, the Lakers finished the season as the worst defensive team of the DECADE based on advanced metric stats. This year, so far, LA ranks #4 in defensive efficiency, holding foes under a point per possession. On their just concluded four game road trip, Over money showed for the Lakers in every single game. They stayed Under the total in Boston by 11.5 points, in Washington by 16.5 points, in Milwaukee by 29 points and in Phoenix by 37.5 points. LA is now 8-3 to the Under in their last eleven ballgames. They’ve just held back-2-back foes Under 100 points; both fast paced teams, holding foes to 43% shooting from the floor in their last five contests. The Lakers offensively are still very much a work in progress with rookie point guard Lonzo Ball still struggling with his shot – this team does not have a go-to scorer anywhere on the roster. This is a dead nuts Under team right now, with the markets continuing to point in the wrong direction. Both LA and Philly play relatively fast, amongst the league leaders in possessions per game – hence the total sitting above 220 as a write this. That’s simply too high for the Lake-show right now; a clear choice for this bettor. Take the UNDER. |
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11-13-17 | Kings v. Wizards UNDER 208 | 92-110 | Win | 100 | 7 h 22 m | Show | |
Take Washington – Sacramento UNDER (#701-702) Wizards head coach Scott Brooks was not happy with his team’s collective defense through the opening stretch of the season and he wasn’t shy about letting his team know about his displeasure. And this veteran squad has responded to Brooks tutelage. Three of their last four opponents have failed to reach the century mark and they’ve cashed four consecutive Under bets. That’s a streak primed to continue on Monday Night. John Wall, following the Wizards shutdown defensive effort last Thursday: “We took on the challenge of trying to guard our man one on one. When guys were getting beat back door, someone was there to help. We just took care of each other’s back, no matter what.” Bradley Beal, following their lone defensively weak game during this span, allowing 133 to the Mavericks: “It starts with me and John. We’ve got to come out better and be better leaders on the team. The rest will follow.” Sacramento ranks #29 in the NBA in offensive efficiency, a VERY limited team on that end of the court. They play at the #28 pace in the league – typical Dave Joeger basketball, not looking to push the pace against anybody. Sacto has been held under 100 points six times in their last seven games, and they managed just 83 points on 39% shooting against the Wizards less than three weeks ago, a game that stayed Under 208.5. Expect another Under cash tonight! Take the Under |
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11-09-17 | Cavs v. Rockets OVER 228 | 113-117 | Win | 100 | 7 h 52 m | Show | |
Take Cleveland – Houston OVER (#705-706) When it comes to pace, offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency, this game has all the makings of a true shootout, from start to finish. Despite their early season struggles, the Cavs currently rank #2 in the NBA in offensive efficiency, averaging 108.9 points per 100 possessions. Houston ranks #3 in that same category at 108.4 points per 100 possessions. The Rockets offense has been clicking on all cylinders in each of their last three games, hanging 119, 119 and 137 on their last three foes. Head coach Mike D’Antoni, talking about their recent uptick even without Chris Paul on the floor: “The first eight games I don't think we played well. The last three we've played well and now we've just got to keep it going and keep improving.” Defensively, it’s another story entirely. The Cavs rank dead last in the NBA by a wide margin, allowing 112.4 points per 100 possessions. The Rockets are better, but they’re certainly no elite defensive squad. Both of these teams spread out the floor and get the ball to open shooters with efficiency. That’s why last year’s two meetings produced 229 and 248 points. From a ‘pace’ standpoint, both of these two squads have been middle of the pack when we look at the full season numbers. But Houston has upped their pace of play in recent games and Cleveland tends to run with anyone who will run with them, as we saw very clearly when Washington went uptempo on them last week; a wild 130-122 shootout that flew Over the total by nearly 30 points. No surprise if we see a similar scoreboard explosion tonight between these two elite offensive squads. Take the Over. |
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11-01-17 | Magic v. Grizzlies OVER 203.5 | 101-99 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 57 m | Show | |
Take Orlando – Memphis OVER (#713-714) Orlando head coach Frank Vogel worked some magic in the preseason, and his roster has surely benefitted from a relatively benign offseason, returning most of their talent from last year. Through the first two weeks of the season, the Magic have the #2 ranked offensive efficiency in the NBA, averaging 111 points per 100 possessions. Only the Warriors have been better. And Orlando is playing at the third fastest pace in the NBA – only the ultra uptempo Nets and Suns are playing faster, a huge uptick from last year. Memphis, too, has upped their offensive efficiency in early season play, up a notch or two from where they’ve been in each of the last two seasons. And like Orlando, the Grizzlies have upped their pace, playing more than three possessions per game faster than last year. Memphis is coming off their worst offensive game of the season, hitting just 34% from the floor in a loss to Charlotte. Leading scorers Mike Conley and Marc Gasol hit only 8-33 from the floor between them, scoring only 26 points. It’s surely worth noting that they still hung 99 on the Hornets, despite a miserable game from their top two offensive weapons. Head coach David Fisdale: “It just seemed like we couldn't make a layup when we had an open layup. When we had open threes, we couldn't make open threes." I’m expecting a strong offensive bounceback here, setting the stage for what should be a relatively high scoring affair. Take the Over. |
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10-25-17 | Grizzlies v. Mavs OVER 197 | 94-103 | Push | 0 | 9 h 1 m | Show | |
Take Memphis – Dallas OVER (#513-514) My clients and I cashed an easy ‘right side’ winner with the Mavs Over the total in their home debut against Atlanta last week. The game flew Over the total by 30 points, and it wasn’t just about good shooting – the tempo was there throughout. Let me start with an excerpt from that write-up: “Expect a very different pace of play from the previously stodgy Dallas Mavericks this year. From Day 1, Dallas is looking to take advantage of the quickness and speed of rookie point guard Dennis Smith. “Owner Marc Cuban, talking about his newest potential star: “Dennis is fast. I mean he’s easily the fastest guy on the team and I wouldn’t be shocked if he’s the fastest end line to end line in the NBA…..watching him get a rebound and go coast-to-coast, fans are going to be fired up.” “Smith: "In this league, I've got to attack first and then make my reads from there. It's tough for defenders to stay in front of me. If I can beat my man and make the defense collapse, I'm smart enough to make the right read out of that." “Head coach Rick Carlisle: “We want to push it every single time, even if there's a score. The quicker you get it over half-court, the greater chance you have to make an early vertical attack on the basket.” In their last two games, the Mavs faced the Rockets and Warriors, two teams that no sane head coach would try to go uptempo against. Rick Carlisle didn’t, which leaves us with a total that’s too low here as the Mavs face off against a team they’ll have no hesitation speeding up against. Memphis, like Dallas, has been one of the slowest paced teams in the NBA for years; not a team that’s likely to garner wiseguy support for Overs based on their pace ratings. But the Grizzlies haven’t been shy about filling up the hoop in early season play, hanging 98+ in all three contests. The injury to JaMychal Green is a difference maker for this squad when it comes to totals; a defensive stopper without an offensive game not on the floor. Green’s absence doesn’t affect the market, but without him, the ‘good offense, bad defense’ duo of Jarell Martin and Chandler Parsons get extra playing time. And it’s surely worth noting how hard the Grizz have been working to get easy buckets, really pushing the pace with their opportunities in transition. Memphis, too, is coming off games against the Rockets and Warriors in their last two outings, both of which stayed Under the total. Against Dallas, I’m not expecting that same level of defensive intensity, and the total is more than 15 points lower……Take the OVER. |
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10-23-17 | Wizards v. Nuggets UNDER 223 | 109-104 | Win | 100 | 9 h 16 m | Show | |
Take Denver – Washington UNDER (#513-514) The Nuggets rank #29 in the NBA in possessions per game on offense, playing at a snail’s pace through their first two games, just 0.1 possessions/game higher than the #30 ranked pace squad, Sacramento. Washington has played faster, but they’re not a true uptempo team either, ranked outside the Top 10 in pace ratings. And yet this total is sitting above 222 as I write this on Monday morning, a good notch or two too high! The Nuggets haven’t reached 100 points yet, in large part, because their VERY young point guards are struggling. The Jamal Murray/Emmauel Mudiay combo – a combined 41 years of age – hasn’t been pretty to watch, averaging just 14 points and five assists per game. That duo isn’t likely to have an easy time against All Star John Wall tonight. But Denver ranks #7 in defensive efficiency, with the likes of Paul Millsap, Kenneth Faried and Mason Plumlee all bringing it on the defensive end of the court. Head coach Mike Malone is not a guy who will tolerate consistent defensive breakdowns. The Wizards cashed Over tickets in their first two games, hence this high total. But as we saw repeatedly last year, the Wiz are far more efficient offensively at home than they are on the highway. Head coach Scott Brooks called out his squad for some poor defensive habits after the game; always a good thing for Under bettors next time out. And new starter Kelly Oubre is having an immediate impact on the defensive end of the floor, a strong wing defender. We saw a 92-85 game between these two teams last year, and both teams shot over 41% from the floor – it wasn’t a brickfest. Tonight’s game might be! Take the Under. |
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10-18-17 | Hawks v. Mavs OVER 197.5 | 117-111 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show | |
Take Dallas – Atlanta OVER (#713-714) Expect a very different pace of play from the previously stodgy Dallas Mavericks this year. From Day 1, Dallas is looking to take advantage of the quickness and speed of rookie point guard Dennis Smith. Owner Marc Cuban, talking about his newest potential star: “Dennis is fast. I mean he’s easily the fastest guy on the team and I wouldn’t be shocked if he’s the fastest end line to end line in the NBA…..watching him get a rebound and go coast-to-coast, fans are going to be fired up.” Smith: "In this league, I've got to attack first and then make my reads from there. It's tough for defenders to stay in front of me. If I can beat my man and make the defense collapse, I'm smart enough to make the right read out of that." Head coach Rick Carlisle: “We want to push it every single time, even if there's a score. The quicker you get it over half-court, the greater chance you have to make an early vertical attack on the basket.” It takes time for the markets to adjust to teams that radically change their pace of play in the offseason. And with the Hawks defensive rotations in disarray throughout the preseason, we can expect an uptempo affair that flies Over the total with room to spare. Take the OVER. |
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06-07-17 | Warriors v. Cavs OVER 226.5 | 118-113 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show | |
Take Cleveland – Golden State OVER (#705-706) I’m going to start this write-up with an extended excerpt from my Game 2 write-up supporting the Over, a ‘rocking chair’ winner on Sunday Night: “The pace was there for a high scoring affair in Game 1 of this series, but the offensive execution was not. Cavs not named ‘LeBron’ or ‘Kyrie’ combined to make a grand total of 11 shots in 48 minutes, as Cleveland shot under 35% from the floor for the game. Golden State took 106 shot attempts, but didn’t get to the free throw line or connect on a high percentage of three pointers while shooting only 42.5% for the game. The entire fourth quarter was, it the immortal words of legendary broadcaster Marv Albert, ‘garbage time’ where the pace slowed to a crawl as the Warriors lead ballooned, the end result being a game that stayed more than 20 points under the total. “Don’t expect ‘more of the same’ in Game 2. The Cavs certainly aren’t looking to slow things down, despite the Game 1 blowout loss. Kevin Love: “We naturally felt like we could have played better, taken the game to them a little bit more and also played with better pace. There were also times where we could have been smarter and made better decisions as far as fouling in the open court when they had an advantage.” “This isn’t two years ago, when Cleveland had no weapons following the Kyrie Irving injury, forcing a ‘slow it down’ pace in the Finals. It’s not last year either, when the Warriors superstars were all banged up and the Cavs were more comfortable playing grinders. This year’s Cleveland squad is predicated on offense, with LeBron and Kyrie penetrating to score or dish to open three point shooters over and over again.” Now, here’s the ‘pace’ quote from LeBron following their Game 2 loss at Golden State, a game in which the Warriors scored the most points in an NBA Finals Game since the showtime Lakers hung 141 o the Celtics in 1987. “That’s not our game. We don’t play slow-down basketball. We play at our pace, and we play our game. We’ve got to this point playing our way. We’ve won a lot of games playing the way we play. So, we’re not going to change.” Here’s the ‘pace’ quote from Cavs head coach Tyronn Lue, heading into Game 3. “I think taking good shots when we're playing with pace and not turning the basketball over, letting them get out in transition. So, that's our game. We're not going to change our game because of who we're playing. And I'm confident that we can play that way, and we did it last year. A lot of people said we couldn't. But that's our game. That's who we are. And we're not going to change just pause we're playing Golden State." Cleveland’s defense has been problematic all year, and that hasn’t changed against the offensively elite Warriors. They’ve allowed 118.98 points per 100 possessions in the first two games of this series. And the matchups that the Warriors have been able to exploit aren’t going to change. Lue has talked about going even smaller and quicker against the Warriors, talking about sitting center Tristan Thompson for extended stretches tonight: “It's not anything Tristan isn't doing. I just think that against this team you have to score the basketball." With JR Smith coming off two ‘no-show’ games, Deron Williams failing to make a shot in nine attempts in the finals thusfar and Channing Frye poised to get additional minutes, the Cavs role players are primed for a step up effort offensively here. And with the pace of this series averaging 11 more possessions than last year’s Finals matchup, tonight’s game has all the makings of another high scoring affair. Take the OVER. |
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06-04-17 | Cavs v. Warriors OVER 220.5 | 113-132 | Win | 100 | 32 h 29 m | Show | |
Take Cleveland – Golden State OVER (#703-704) The pace was there for a high scoring affair in Game 1 of this series, but the offensive execution was not. Cavs not named ‘LeBron’ or ‘Kyrie’ combined to make a grand total of 11 shots in 48 minutes, as Cleveland shot under 35% from the floor for the game. Golden State took 106 shot attempts, but didn’t get to the free throw line or connect on a high percentage of three pointers while shooting only 42.5% for the game. The entire fourth quarter was, it the immortal words of legendary broadcaster Marv Albert, ‘garbage time’ where the pace slowed to a crawl as the Warriors lead ballooned, the end result being a game that stayed more than 20 points under the total. Don’t expect ‘more of the same’ in Game 2. We can expect this game to be more physical. 47 fouls got called in Game 1, leading to a combined 31 made free throws. This game should have ample point scoring opportunities with the shot clock off, as the refs try to keep things from getting too contentious! Klay Thompson: “I think the Cavs on Sunday will make a plan to not let [Durant] get so many easy buckets around the rim. I expect the Cavs to play a more physical game on Sunday to combat that.” Free throw attempts correlate STRONGLY with NBA totals – more attempts = higher scoring games. The Cavs certainly aren’t looking to slow things down, despite the Game 1 blowout loss. Kevin Love: “We naturally felt like we could have played better, taken the game to them a little bit more and also played with better pace. There were also times where we could have been smarter and made better decisions as far as fouling in the open court when they had an advantage.” This isn’t two years ago, when Cleveland had no weapons following the Kyrie Irving injury, forcing a ‘slow it down’ pace in the Finals. It’s not last year either, when the Warriors superstars were all banged up and the Cavs were more comfortable playing grinders. This year’s Cleveland squad is predicated on offense, with LeBron and Kyrie penetrating to score or dish to open three point shooters over and over again. The Cavs have averaged 118.3 points per 100 possessions here in the playoffs, #1 in the NBA. Golden State ranks #2 at 115.4 pp/100. This should be no surprise – both teams ranked in the Top 3 in offensive efficiency during the regular season as well. With the refs primed to blow some whistles, both teams looking to push the tempo and both squads extremely capable of lighting up the scoreboard, look for a Game 2 shootout that flies OVER the total. Take the Over. |
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05-23-17 | Celtics v. Cavs UNDER 218 | 99-112 | Win | 100 | 8 h 4 m | Show | |
Take Cleveland – Boston UNDER (#505-506) The NBA Playoffs have been a boon for Over bettors. The Spurs closed out the playoffs on a 12-3 run to the Over. Golden State is on a 9-3 Over run, Cleveland on a 8-3 Over Run and Boston on a 7-3 Over Run. Each of the first three games of this series has landed right around the total, with two Overs cashing by a combined 4.5 points and the lone Under cashing by 2.5. Given these type of results – Overs cashing in bunches, all three games of this series finishing right around the total – there’s no surprise that the betting markets have NOT made any significant adjustments for Game 4 tonight. And yet tonight’s game has a VERY different feel about it than the first three. The Celtics are not the same team without Isaiah Thomas on the floor. Their offense is slower and less efficient – no surprise there, minus an elite offensive point guard. And their defense is noticeably better minus the single worst defensive point guard in the NBA this season, based on the advanced metric stats. That’s a good part of the reason how the Celtics rallied back from a 21 point second half deficit to win Game 3 -- vastly improved defense, keeping the Cavs from driving into the paint. Boston’s improved defense and weaker offense were NOT truly on full display in Game 3 because BOTH teams were raining three’s throughout; combining for a whopping 34 made three pointers. Had they only made 33 of those, Game 3 would have stayed Under the total. Games 1 and 2 had 23 and 27 three point makes; right in the range of what we should expect again tonight. Without BOTH teams draining three pointers in bunches, this game has all the makings of an Under. No surprise here if we see what we saw from Boston in their Game 6 battle at Washington, a game that stayed 35 points Under…. Take the Under. |
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05-16-17 | Spurs v. Warriors UNDER 210 | 100-136 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 15 m | Show | |
Take Golden State – San Antonio UNDER (#719-720) There is one factor that is putting me squarely on the Under for this ballgame, a factor that trumps any other when it comes to the pace of this ballgame. That factor, of course, is Gregg Popovich; the Bill Belichick of the NBA; a coach who creates gameplans that consistently flummox their opponents. So, pretend you’re Gregg Popovich for a moment. You’ve already lost your starting point guard for the rest of the playoffs, with Tony Parker’s injury. And then you lose your best player on BOTH ends of the court, with Kawhi Leonard expected to miss Game 2 tonight. So what do you do against an elite defense like Golden State’s; a defense that held San Antonio to 33 points over the game’s final 21 minutes after Kawhi Leonard got hurt? If I’m Popovich, I’m looking to SLOW the pace as much as possible, shortening the game and eliminating the ridiculous 25 fast break points that San Antonio allowed after halftime of Game 1. The Spurs are as deep as any team in the league – the back end of their bench can contribute on both ends of the floor, unlike so many other teams. Of course, facing the Warriors, it’s not about contributions from the back end of the rotation – it’s about defense and pace. I’m expecting the Spurs to slow this game to a crawl as best they can. I’m not expecting a late game flurry, with 19 points scored in the final 2:25 of Game 1, because tonight’s game has plenty of ‘dribble out’ potential for the final possessions. Twice in three regular season meetings, San Antonio held Golden State to 100 points or less. No surprise here if they do it again tonight in a game that has all the makings of a relatively low scoring affair. Take the UNDER. |
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05-15-17 | Wizards v. Celtics UNDER 210.5 | Top | 105-115 | Loss | -110 | 56 h 33 m | Show |
Big Ticket: Take Boston – Washington UNDER (#715-716) Let me start with an excerpt from my Under write-up for Game 6, an easy ‘right side’ winner that cashed by more than 30 points: “Two things happened that were ‘different’ in Game 5 between the Wizards and Celtics. First, the Celtics finally figured out their low post defense, repeatedly stuffing John Wall at the rim. Boston blocked a series high eight shots, showing significant improvement in the paint following a series of Brad Stevens adjustments. “Second, the Celtics ran the Wizards out of the gym, after Washington had gotten the job done with their transition in each of their previous two contests; games where the Celtics were held to 89 and 102 points, in sharp contrast to the 123 they hung in Game 5. Wizards head coach Scott Brooks was not amused by his team’s defensive showing, as evidenced by this ‘actionable’ quote. “Brooks: “When you give a very good team transition points and breakaway points with nobody guarding you ... it's going to be hard to keep up with them. We had no answers for those guys. We've done a pretty good job on their best player, but not a good enough job on the other guys." So what happened in Game 6? Yes, the shooting percentages were down in a tight defensive struggle. But more than that, the transition buckets simply weren’t there, the pace wasn’t there, and the bevy of ‘free and easy’ buckets weren’t there. I do NOT expect any of that to chance for Game 7, yet the total remains in ‘inflated’ territory based on the full series results thusfar. This is not unusual in the slightest. As a series progresses, teams offer precious few surprises and adjustments to what they’ve already done. That’s at least part of the reason why series tend to get lower scoring, bogging down once we get to Games 6 and 7. In a Game 7 ‘win or go home’ situation where BOTH teams can be expected to get after it defensively, particularly in transition, expect the second consecutive game to stay Under the total by margin; a play worthy of Big Ticket status with this total still sitting above 210 as I write this. Big Ticket: Take the Under. |
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05-12-17 | Celtics v. Wizards UNDER 217 | 91-92 | Win | 100 | 8 h 16 m | Show | |
Take Boston – Washington UNDER (#711-712) Two things happened that were ‘different’ in Game 5 between the Wizards and Celtics. First, the Celtics finally figured out their low post defense, repeatedly stuffing John Wall at the rim. Boston blocked a series high eight shots, showing significant improvement in the paint following a series of Brad Stevens adjustments. Second, the Celtics ran the Wizards out of the gym, after Washington had gotten the job done with their transition in each of their previous two contests; games where the Celtics were held to 89 and 102 points, in sharp contrast to the 123 they hung in Game 5. Wizards head coach Scott Brooks was not amused by his team’s defensive showing, as evidenced by this ‘actionable’ quote. Brooks: “When you give a very good team transition points and breakaway points with nobody guarding you ... it's going to be hard to keep up with them. We had no answers for those guys. We've done a pretty good job on their best player, but not a good enough job on the other guys." Boston has played at a noticeably slower pace on the highway throughout this postseason, cashing four Unders in five road playoff games. That stands in sharp contrast to their 6-0 mark to the Over when playing at home, pushing the pace far more effectively in front of a friendly crowd. As a series progresses, teams offer precious few surprises and adjustments to what they’ve already done. That’s at least part of the reason why series tend to get lower scoring, bogging down once we get to Games 5, 6 and 7. On a night where BOTH teams can be expected to get after it defensively, particularly in transition, expect the lowest scoring game of the series! Take the Under |
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05-08-17 | Warriors v. Jazz OVER 206 | 121-95 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show | |
Take Golden State – Utah OVER (#701-702) Golden State was held to a playoff low 102 points in Game 3. Their backcourt duo of Steph Curry and Klay Thompson finished with a combined 7-29 shooting effort, missing the shots they normally make. Golden State wasn’t hitting from three point range, hitting just 30% from beyond the arc. This team has averaged more than 114 points per game here in the postseason after leading the NBA with a 116 points per game average during the regular season. Even with Rudy Gobert patrolling the paint effectively, the Jazz haven’t shown the ability to shut the Warriors offense down for extended stretches at any point during their regular season meetings or here in the playoffs. Most home teams that are down 3-0 in a series are primed to deliver a flat effort in Game 4. There’s not much motivation to get on a plane and fly back to their opponents home court for what is likely to be a rough and ugly Game 5. That does NOT appear to be the case for Utah. Head coach Quin Snyder: “We can’t get to Game #5 until you play Game #4. It's a chance to break through or the season's over. If we're able to do that, we'll turn our attention to the next game. Until we can do that, there's no sense looking forward. Just stay completely present." But it’s not just the coach who is talking the talk. Jazz All Star Gordon Hayward, following their Game 3 loss: “It's definitely encouraging. From where we were Game 1 to where we are tonight, you can see signs of improvement.” Utah’s best player in this series, Rudy Gobert: “I think we've been getting better every game. It's just those last seven minutes when we let them take over the game. I think we've gotten better and we've got to build around what we've done and keep the same attitude, and keep competing, and just believe in ourselves. I think we'll be fine.” How about Kevin Durant’s quote, from the other sideline: “They don't quit. That's what I love about this team. They have a great coach. They play physical. They don't give up. They've got a great crowd as well so they're going to try to feed off of that. The series is far from over.” From a totals perspective, those quotes tell me to expect Utah to fight tonight, not lay down. And if the Jazz fight, the Over here makes perfect sense. Yes, we’ve got a legitimate opportunity for late game scramble points should we need them. But we’ve also got a pair of teams primed to shoot much better in Game 4 than they did in Game 3 – not just Curry and Thompson either> Let’s not forget that other than Gobert hitting seven of his eight shot attempts from short range on Saturday Night, the entire Jazz team went 23-69 from the floor, hitting only 33%. Slightly better shooting from both teams can be expected here, sending this game up and Over the total. Take the OVER. |
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05-07-17 | Spurs v. Rockets OVER 212.5 | 104-125 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show | |
Take Houston – San Antonio OVER (#515-516) Here’s the key quote from Rockets win Trevor Ariza: “They played harder than we did in the second half. We can't allow that, especially at home. We've got to do a better job of matching their physicality and playing harder.” Here’s the key stat for San Antonio. The Spurs pushed the tempo after halftime of Game 3, hanging 60 points on Houston after the break after scoring only 43 first half points. They finished the second half with an effective FG percentage of 64%. I’m not convinced that Houston has the defensive answers right now, with only 48 hours between games for Mike D’Antoni to make his limited adjustments. Here’s the key quote from Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich; a coach who knows full well that in both Game 1 and Game 2, the winner hung more than 120 on the loser. “It's a challenge. They've got great shooters, good athletes, good scheme, and just as anyone else would do we're just trying to do our best to get out to those shooters. James does a great job making you think about what you have to do to him, how much you can help off other people. It's enough to drive you crazy but you just do your best. That's why people score." The Spurs are 7-2 to the Over here in the postseason, an under-the-radar angle that has not attracted significant betting attention. The Rockets have just been held under 100 points in two consecutive games, getting little from James Harden in one (3-17 shooting, only 13 points) and little from the supporting cast in the second (the rest of the team shot 18-60 30% from the floor). It’s surely worth noting that Houston hasn’t been held under 107 in any three game stretch all season. With the Rockets in desperation mode, expect a ‘push the pace’ offense for 48 minutes from the home favorite tonight, sending this game Over the total. Take the Over. |
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04-27-17 | Spurs v. Grizzlies UNDER 190 | 103-96 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 1 m | Show | |
Take Memphis – San Antonio UNDER (#505-506) Game 6 tonight is a potential closeout game between two defensive minded ballclubs; squads that create their identity on the defensive end of the court. We’ve seen plenty of sluggish, low scoring affairs between these two squads this season. When they played in February, these two squads combined for 163 total points. When they played in April, the game stayed Under by 11.5 points…even AFTER five extra minutes for overtime. And Game 2 of this series was another true grinder; another game that stayed Under the total by a double digit margin, with plenty of room to spare. It’s not like we haven’t seen plenty of low scoring games between the Spurs and the Grizzlies…. But we’ve seen three consecutive ‘shootouts’ in this series, with Games 3, 4 and 5 all flying Over the total. Game 5 earlier in the week was the highest scoring game of the bunch; a 116-103 shootout. Neither coach was particularly amused with their team defense. These two quotes are my primary rationale for this Under bet tonight: Grizzlies head coach David Fizdale, following Game 5: “We did not play defense at all. The Spurs did what the Spurs do. Every mistake, they capitalized on, and it ended in a 3 every time." Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich, following Game 5: “I wouldn't say we stopped anybody. But you know we made shots, and that's what we didn't do last game." Both teams shot over 50% from the floor on Tuesday Night. There were more made shots in the game than rebounds, by a double digit margin! That’s not what we can expect in a potential series clincher tonight – expect a VERY different offensive flow in Game 6. Take the Under. |
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04-26-17 | Hawks v. Wizards OVER 212.5 | 99-103 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 2 m | Show | |
Take Washington – Atlanta OVER (#709-710) Each of the last three games in this series has been a legitimate sweat for total bettors. All three games were lined in this same range, right around 211.5 or 212. The three games finished with 210, 212 and 214 points scored – nary a ‘right side’ to be had with the totals. So what makes tonight’s game different? Two things! But first, let me state that the pace in this series has been frenetic throughout, something I don’t expect to change as the Wizards return home where they have pushed tempo effectively all year. What’s different? The Wizards ranked among the top quartile of NBA teams in terms of three point shooting percentage during the regular season. Here in the playoffs, they rank #15 of the 16 postseason teams in three point shooting percentage, hitting under 30% from downtown. On a team where John Wall, Bradley Beal, Markieff Morriss, Otto Porter Jr and Bojan Boddanovic all shot well from three point range during the regular season, there’s ample reason to expect some of those shots to fall here in Game 5. The second factor is how chippy this series has gotten, with a fair bit of bad blood between these two teams already. That sets the stage for a foul fest, especially in the aftermath of a very physical Game 4 after the two teams combined to hit only 37 and 36 free throws in the two games in Atlanta (compared to 57 made free throws in Game 2 and 48 in Game 1). Neither team has shut down their opponent in any game of this series yet, with the loser cracking 100 in three of the four games (and 98 in the fourth) while the winner has been at 109 or higher every time. We saw 212 points in Game 4, despite re the fact that neither squad hit 45% from the floor, the lack of free throw attempts and Washington’s poor three point shooting. All three of those stats (shooting percentage, three point shooting percentage and free throws) are primed for an uptick tonight! Take the Over. |
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04-22-17 | Wizards v. Hawks OVER 210 | 98-116 | Win | 100 | 6 h 3 m | Show | |
Take Atlanta – Washington OVER (#503-504) Here’s the key quote, from Hawks All Star forward Paul Millsap: “It’s simple. Our small ball is better than theirs. We think we play small ball better than anybody in the league. That is one of our better lineups. We can push the tempo. Get up and down the court.” And Millsap is right. The Hawks ARE at their best when pushing the pace with their ‘small-ball’ lineup. And Hawks coach Mike Budenholzer made a key rotation adjustment in Game 2, sitting Dwight Howard throughout the fourth quarter. Budenholzer: “It spreads the court more. It gets more ball-handlers, more guys who can get to the paint.” When your paint protecting, shot blocking big man is sitting on the sidelines, it’s generally good news for Over bettors. So, we’ve got a Wizards team that plays their best basketball when pushing the pace – John Wall is as quick as any point guard in the NBA right now. Washington has hung 112, 104, 114 and 109 on Atlanta in the four meetings played in 2017. We’ve got a Hawks team that is looking to do the exact same thing. We’re coming off a game in which both teams were ice cold from three point range, a combined 11-42. And yet the markets have adjusted this total downwards from Game 2’s number. Put it all together and the Over in Game 3 is a clear choice for this bettor! Take the Over. |
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04-20-17 | Raptors v. Bucks UNDER 196.5 | 77-104 | Win | 100 | 8 h 30 m | Show | |
Take Toronto – Milwaukee UNDER (#711-712) The Bucks and Raptors have played four times since the calendar turned to 2017. Three of the four games stayed Under the total, producing 195 points or less. The only Over cash – in Game 2 of this series – came, in large part, due to uncharacteristically good three point shooting. Milwaukee and Toronto combined to hit 25-52 from three point range in that contest, both squads exceeding their season long three point shooting percentage by double digit margins. That allowed an Over cash despite a relatively slow pace, just like Game 1. Toronto’s gameplan on the highway has been very consistent down the stretch. Dwane Casey wants to avoid turnovers like the plague, and play a half-court game on both ends of the floor. The Raptors were a Top 5 defensive team in the NBA after the All Star Break, and they are a team that doesn’t look to push the pace on offense, very comfortable in their halfcourt sets. No surprise, then, that the Raptors are 16-5 to the Under in their last 21 on the highway. The Raptors hung 106 on Milwaukee when these teams met on Tuesday, and Jason Kidd was not amused, stressing defense to his team in practice and in his media sessions. It’s surely worth noting that the Bucks are 16-4-1 to the Under in their last 21 tries after their opponent hung 100+ against them. And with Toronto finding an effective way to defense Giannis Antetokounmpo in Game 2, don’t expect the Bucks offense to be particularly ‘free flowing’ tonight, helping this Game 3 stay Under the total with room to spare. Take the Under. |
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04-19-17 | Hawks v. Wizards UNDER 212 | 101-109 | Win | 100 | 6 h 53 m | Show | |
Take Washington - Atlanta UNDER (#701-702) The betting markets have adjusted the Game 2 total higher after Game 1 was played at a torrid pace, leading to a combined 221 points and an Over cash for bettors. I’m not convinced that the adjustment upwards is the appropriate move here! Atlanta has spent the last two days in practice working on transition defense, looking to take the Wizards away from their fast break points. Guard Tim Hardaway Jr: “Transition. Same since Day 1. If we do not get back, it is going to be hard for us to win games.” Head coach Mike Budenholzer: “The thing that stood out the most was was we thought was most important coming into the series which is transition defense. We’ve got to to be better. It’s got to be the priority and the emphasis.” With the Hawks making a concerted effort to slow Game 2 down, it’s worth looking back at the regular season meetings. These two teams played opening night — way too long ago to worry about. But the other three regular season meetings all stayed Under the total by double digit margins, a clear indicator that the Hawks ‘slow it down’ strategy is not some pipe dream. Game 1 was a foul fest as well, with the two teams combining to hit 48 of 56 free throw attempts. Paul Millsap: “We were playing basketball, they were playing MMA’. Considering that the Hawks ranked #28 in free throw shooting this year and that the Wizards ranked #23 in free throws attempted, I’m not expecting another 48 points to be scored with the shot clock off tonight. Take the UNDER. |
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04-17-17 | Pacers v. Cavs OVER 209.5 | 111-117 | Win | 100 | 7 h 29 m | Show | |
Take Cleveland – Indiana OVER (#517-518) The Cavaliers defensive deficiencies have been a major story throughout the second half of the regular season, when Cleveland ranked #29 in points allowed per 100 possessions after the All Star Break, one tenth of one percent better than the #30 ranked, lottery bound LA Lakers. Indiana almost stole Game 1, in large part, due to those Cavs defensive weaknesses. Indiana had open looks throughout, consistently breaking down that suspect Cleveland defense. But the Cavs scored at a 119 points per 100 possessions rate, a rate that could have been a good notch or two higher had Cleveland not missed 13 of their 27 free throw attempts. Noe of this is likely to change in any significant way for Game 2. Cleveland has no switch they can flip to turn a bad defensive team in recent months into an elite, championship caliber defense in the 48 hours since Saturday’s opener. The Pacers really don’t have many answers for the Cavaliers offensive versatility – other than Myles Turner, the Indiana roster combined for two steals and no blocks in Game 1. And Cleveland wasn’t even hot from three point range on Saturday; a team with eight legitimate threats to get hot from downtown and light up the scoreboard in a hurry. Here’s the kicker, turning an initial ‘lean’ towards the Over into an actual wager for Game 2. Tyrone Lue, following the Game 1 victory: “We didn’t push the ball in the fourth quarter. We got stops and we just walked the ball up the floor and that put us in one-on-one situations. We took some bad shots. We didn’t keep playing with the same intensity, the same pace offensively once we did get stops.” Expect the Cavs to push the pace throughout tonight, sending Game 2 Over the total, just like Game 1. Take the Over. |
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