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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-11-14 | Houston v. BYU OVER 57 | 25-33 | Win | 100 | 13 h 6 m | Show | |
BYU is playing the Houston Cougars in the first of three straight home games. BYU comes into this week ranked 25th in the polls. It’s there first time being ranked since 2012. They are coming off a convincing 41-7 win over Texas.  Houston started the season with a disappointing 27-7 setback to Texas-San Antonio late last month. They put a thumping on Grambling State last week 47-0.BYU won the only previous meeting between the squads last season by a narrow 47-46 final on the road in Houston. Against Grambling State, Houston had thirty four points at the half after scoring twenty four in the second quarter. They rushed for 275 yards and three touchdown. However, the week before they rushed for negative yards against UTSA.  Quarterback John O'Korn converted 14-of-24 passes for 200 yards and a TD. Wide receiver Deontay Greenberry caught in five balls for a game-high 110 yards. Their defense forced six turnovers. Houston gave up 238 yards of total offense to the Tigers‚ including only 175 yards through the air‚ which is certainly a positive for a squad that was ranked 108th in the nation a season ago with 266.8 ypg permitted BYU quarterback Taysom Hill totaled five touchdowns and helped BYU rack up 513 yards in a season-opening 35-10 win at Connecticut, then scored three times on the ground in a 41-7 demolition of Texas on Saturday. The junior quarterback has completed 73.0 percent of his passes. BYU held a Texas team missing starting quarterback David Ash to 258 yards, and easily passed what looked to be one of the more difficult tests on its schedule. BYU will score and score often. I think Houston will score enough to easily put this game over the total and it will go over early in the game. Play on the OVER. |
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09-07-14 | Cleveland Browns v. Pittsburgh Steelers UNDER 41 | 27-30 | Loss | -108 | 122 h 24 m | Show | |
Play on the Under: The Pittsburg Steelers looking to break out of a two slump of making the playoffs by taking on an old rival in the Cleveland Browns. They will be looking for their eleventh home win against the Browns, their current streak is tied for the sixth longest active home winning streak against an opponent.  Pittsburgh has not missed the postseason in three straight years since 1998-2000. The Browns will be under a new head coach Mile Pettine was names the fifteenth coach in team history replacing Rob Chudzinski, who lasted one year in Cleveland. Reasons for Play: The Browns preseason has not been good. Named starting quarterback looked dreadful and No. 1 draft pick Johnny Manziel didn’t look much better. To top it off they lost their best receiver, and arguably one of the best in the league, Josh Gordon for the season to suspension. It will be hard to replace the 1,646 receiving yards that Gordon amassed. Cleveland’s starting QB Hoyer will have to try and find a replacement for Gordon as the Browns brought in two new receivers, Andrew Hawkins and Miles Austin, during the offseason. He will have talented tight end Jordan Cameron to relieve some pressure. They also brought in a new running back free agent Ben Tate to handle rushing duties. The offense looked so bad during the preseason that many were calling for Manziel to be the starter to open the season. All these signs do not point to good things for the Browns offense. The Steelers are slowly turning to youth on the defensive side of things. Three of their starters up front our only in their fourth year, they will also start a rookie at inside linebacker in Ryan Shazier. Cornerback Cortez Allen is another player with limited experience‚ but the defense will still have veterans Troy Polamalu and Ike Taylor in the secondary and Lawrence Timmons at linebacker to lend leadership and stability. This defense must be licking their chops to get a chance at this offense. The Steeler offense will look again to pound the ball on the ground with second year player Le’Veon Bell getting the start‚ with fellow running back LeGarrette Blunt getting his share of carries. Both were arrested in August for marijuana possession, but that will have no effect on this game. He'll have to work hard without Gordon‚ with expected starters Andrew Hawkins and Miles Austin brought in during the offseason to help fill the void along with talented tight end Jordan Cameron. I am playing on the UNDER because Hoyer will not only have to deal with the Steelers D and Manziel over his shoulder. But he really has no offensive weapons to count on to keep the pressure off him. The Steelers will get to him early and often and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Manziel enter this game today. Play the Under |
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09-07-14 | Washington Redskins v. Houston Texans UNDER 45.5 | 6-17 | Win | 100 | 122 h 24 m | Show | |
Play on Under 45.5 Washington vs Houston I am playing this game under based on the 2 quarterbacks and Houston’s defense!! Plain and Simple.  Houston’s defense is outstanding led by J.J. Watt and then they added No. 1 overall draft pick Jadeveon Clowney. Those two alone could be the most disruptive tandem who knows. RGIII, Jay Gruden, their offensive line and O-line coach and even Daniel Snyder has to be having nightmares thinking of these two let alone the rest of the defense. Speaking of RGIII, another reason I am playing UNDER, he now wants to be known as a pocket passer. Well, that is one thing he is not. Without the threat of the run, he will not be able to live off the short passes as he first two years. Sitting the pocket will make him a sitting duck for Watt/ Clowney and company. Houston has a new coach and quarterback. You could say the Texans have no faith in their quarterback. The made a late preseason trade for Patriot third stringer Ryan Mallet. I see new coach O’Brien establishing the run with Arian Foster and playing his first game close to the vest, relying on his defense to win this game. |
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09-05-14 | Washington State v. Nevada UNDER 67 | 13-24 | Win | 100 | 16 h 37 m | Show | |
Washington State and Nevada, a pair of high powered offenses, failed to get covers in their season openers. The total for this game was set at 67 points and even though everything on paper makes this look like an easy over I am playing on the UNDER 67. Washington State, under HC and Offensive guru Mike Leach, was masterful through the air against Rutgers. Quarterback Connor Holiday threw for an eye popping 532 yards and 5 touchdowns., Vince Mayle  came up with 12 receptions for 124 yards. In total there were 10 total receivers who caught at least one pass and that is where Nevada will have an issue in this game. This will cause trouble for Nevada’s secondary. Nevada did well getting out of third downs and big plays against Southern Utah, as well as knocking out their starting quarterback, but then again it all comes back to Nevada playing a FCS team, so who knows how good this Nevada secondary really is. The Nevada Wolf Pack was no pushover on the offensive end in their first game. They were led by quarterback Cody Fajardo who, connected for 303 passing yards and a 28-19 victory over the Thunderbirds at Mackay Stadium. Nevada runs this pistol giving Fajardo and running back Don Jackson plenty of opportunity to gain yards against a defense that gave up 281 yards in the air and another 215 on the ground. I think both teams will score tonight, but Nevada can’t get into a shootout with WSU offense. I see Nevada being able to run the ball and control some of the clock. Limiting scoring chances in the process. There will be a lot of points scored but the total is set too high based off of last week. I am playing on the UNDER 67 total: Betting trends: Ø Nevada has gone 7-0 to the UNDER in their last seven games. |
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08-30-14 | LSU v. Wisconsin UNDER 49.5 | 28-24 | Loss | -106 | 34 h 36 m | Show | |
   Wisconsin (#13) takes on LSU (#14) in Houston, Texas in a match-up that could have early NCAA playoff implications. The total on this game is 49.5 points and I see this total easily going under that. This game has final score of 20-17 or 17-14 written all over it.       Both teams will be looking to replace their starting quarterbacks from a year ago. Wisconsin will be going with a junior who played safety and receiver a year ago. LSU will have two inexperienced quarterbacks to choose from. Both teams have to replace their receiving corps. Wisconsin lost their top four receivers and LSU their top two from a year ago. LSU’s top returning receiver had only 7 receptions and 145 yards last year. All is not lost on the offensive end for these two teams. Wisconsin returns leading rusher and Heisman Trophy candidate Melvin Gordan to the backfield. Gordan rushed for over 1600 yards last year on 7.8 yards per carry while sharing the ball carrying duties, and many experts are looking for a 2000 yard season out of Gordan. The Badgers also have four starters returning to the O-line, so you can expect to see a lot of Gordan carrying the ball.      Even though LSU has little experience at quarterback or receiver. They do have however,  highly anticipated and much hyped freshman running back Leonard Fournette, who is being called in some circles, the best running back ever from the state of Louisiana, and this is before he has had even carried the ball once. They will also be returning senior RB Terrence Magee (759 rush yards, 9 TD). Magee is expected to get a lot of carries as well. Les miles will feature these two backs heavily, early in the season to keep pressure off his young quarterbacks.     With both teams relying on their running games and defenses to keep this game close, I see a very low scoring game that will come down to the last possession. This game should easily go under the total of 49.5. |
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08-29-14 | BYU v. Connecticut UNDER 52 | 35-10 | Win | 100 | 33 h 36 m | Show | |
The Huskies have seen the Under go 7-1 the last eight times that they played a home game where the total fell in the 49.5 to 56 range. During that span, the Under is 27-18 when the Cougars played a road game with a total in the same range. That includes a 4-1 Under mark in that spot the past few seasons. During that period the Under is 17-6 in all BYU games, 5-2 when they were favored on the road. Last 5 BYU openers have finished with 35, 36, 27, 40 and 27 points. Last 5 UConn openers have finished with 51, 37, 38, 40 and 39 points. Expect them to kick-off the season with another defensive affair. 9* Blue Ribbon |
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01-19-14 | New England Patriots v. Denver Broncos OVER 54.5 | Top | 16-26 | Loss | -102 | 163 h 54 m | Show |
10* TOTALS CLUB "over" Pats/Broncos.
There's no need to get into individual player match-ups today, we all know the strengths and weaknesses of each club. I'm basing this selection on strong O/U trends and common sense. New England had the fifth ranked offense, averaging 419 YPG; Denver is No. 6 with an average of 363 YPG. I simply expect the top two QB's of our generation to open up the playbook and to battle it out in a classic shootout. The Pats' weakness was clearly on the defensive side of the ball this season, and while Denver was fantastic to start, it stumbled many times in the second half, it's secondary will be in for a long day vs. New England's precise pivot. Note that New England has seen the total eclipse the number in four of its last six as an underdog, in four of its last six vs. teams with winning records and in eight of 13 vs. conference opponents this year. And note that Denver has seen the total soar above the posted number in six of nine home games this season and in seven of 13 vs. conference opponents. Expect this one to sneak above the posted number as the game comes down the stretch. Good luck, Nick Parsons |
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01-11-14 | Indianapolis Colts v. New England Patriots UNDER 53.5 | Top | 22-43 | Loss | -110 | 117 h 41 m | Show |
10* "TOTALS CLUB" "under" Colts/Patriots.
After their improbable 45-44, 28-point come from behind victory over the Chiefs last weekend, I fully expect the dome team Colts to stumble in what is expected to be extremely inclement weather conditions in New England on Saturday night. Indianapolis QB Andrew Luck is going to have a hard time moving the ball tonight vs. the Patriots' talented CB tandem in Aqib Talib and Logan Ryan who combined for nine INTs this year. That said, the Colts won't be going down without a fight obviously; they can take solace in the fact that Patriots' QB Tom Brady had his worst passer rating (87.3) since his first full season in 2003. Also note that Brady was sacked 40 times this year, the most since 2001. And that's music to Indianapolis pass rusher Robert Mathis who led the league with 19.5 sacks and who had one last week as well. Brady has been getting the job done with a patchwork offensive unit all year, but the continued absence of TE Rob Gronkowski will definitely have an impact in this playoff contest; the team will be forced to lean heavily upon RB's LeGarrette Blount and Stevan Ridley who combined for 1,545 yards and 14 scores this year. Note that Indianapolis has seen the total dip below the posted number in 13 of its last 24 road games. And note that New England has interestingly seen the total go "under" the number in four of six this year after two or more consecutive SU wins. With both teams putting an added emphasis on the run game due to the weather conditions, combined with the strong situational factors and the "under" trends that each exhibit in this spot, all signs do indeed point to a lower-scoring "chess match" style of contest; play on the "under". Good luck, Nick Parsons |
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01-06-14 | Auburn v. Florida State UNDER 68 | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 470 h 34 m | Show |
10* TOTALS CLUB "under".
Forget about the offensive numbers that the Seminoles put up at home against the Bethune-Cookmans, Nevadas and Idahos of the world. In fact, forget about any numbers cobbled together at home. The BCS is a road game (Rose Bowl in Pasadena), and one of the teams (Auburn) has a vested interest in keeping this one low-scoring. The Tigers will grind it out on the ground as much as they can, then try to make lightning strike in the fourth quarter as they have so many times this season. At 69, over players need both teams to move the ball consistently all day, and the last real shootout in the BCS title game was 2005 (Texas 41, USC 38). Not likely to happen again. Good luck, Nick Parsons |
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01-05-14 | San Diego Chargers v. Cincinnati Bengals UNDER 47 | Top | 27-10 | Win | 100 | 148 h 0 m | Show |
10* TOTALS CLUB "under" Chargers/Bengals.
Not very interested in laying a full touchdown with a Bengals team that is 8-0 SU and ATS at home this year and not real interested in taking the seven with a San Diego squad that had the planets align just to get to this point. These teams met December 1st with Cincinnati winning 17-10 at Qualcomm with the teams combining for just 688 yards of total offense. The game was a virtual instant replay of their Dec 2, 2012 meeting in San Diego won by the Bengals 20-13 with the teams stuck with just 636 yards of total offense. The Bolts were 9-3 to the under in their conference games while the Bengals have been held to 21 points or less in half their games. Both teams will look to establish the run which will run clock and shorten the game making the under all the more probable. It's deja vu all over again today in the Queen City. |
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01-03-14 | Oklahoma State v. Missouri UNDER 62.5 | Top | 31-41 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 51 m | Show |
10* TOTALS CLUB "under" Oklahoma State/Missouri.
There is lots of familiarity between today's two Cotton Bowl rivals who did battle against each other in the Big 12 up until 2011. While both teams are noted for high-powered explosive offenses, both teams are extremely underrated on the defensive side of the ball. Missouri allowed just 22 ppg against a tough SEC schedule and that includes the 59 points that Auburn dropped on them in the SEC championship game. The Tigers won't face the triple option tonight against the Cowboys who are more balanced and even a little pass heavy. Mizzou led the SEC in sacks and features the conference Defensive Player of the Year in DL Michael Sam. According to HC Mike Gundy, this is the best Okie State defense that he's had in his tenure. The Cowboys also allowed 22 ppg against similar Big 12 spread offenses. looking at a more strategic field position game here that goes flying under today's posted total. Good luck, Nick Parsons |
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01-01-14 | Iowa v. LSU UNDER 49.5 | 14-21 | Win | 100 | 51 h 9 m | Show | |
8* play "under" Iowa/LSU.
Strangely enough, the Iowa figures to dictate the pace of this game with their solid unspectacular offense and a stout bend but don't break defense. The Hawkeyes are led by Jake Rudock who is a decent game manager that stays out of trouble by handing off to Iowa's two-headed dragon of Weisman and Canzari. Iowa's leading receiver has just 39 catches so LSU will be able to stack the box. Iowa was seventh nationally in total defense and has its usual tough as nails front seven. Iowa is 6-0 to the under as a dog in this ATS range and is 12-6 low this year the last three years vs teams with winning records, both clear indicators that Ferentz is willing to take the air out of the ball to shorten the game. LSU has been an over machine but is 6-0 to the under in games where their opponent has had extra time to prepare. Barring some Bayou Bengal quick strikes, expect a lot of football between the 20s and for this one to fly under the total. Good luck, Nick Parsons |
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12-29-13 | Green Bay Packers v. Chicago Bears UNDER 52 | Top | 33-28 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 9 m | Show |
10* TOTAL OF THE YEAR "under" Packers/Bears.
This is a massive game for both teams. The NFC North is on the line. Each is coming off an embarrassing effort: Green Bay fell 38-31 at home to PIttsburgh, while Chicago was destroyed 54-11 at Philadelphia. Both sides will be looking to atone for those pathetic performances I played this total at 52, the moment it came out. It's since moved the other way. No matter, if you can get 52 or better, then you're loving it. The Packers have seen the total go 5-2 on the road this year, while Chicago has seen it go 5-2 at home (11-4 overall); when the dust does finally settle at the end of this game, I fully expect a "correction" to have occurred to these lop-sided numbers. Note though that Green Bay has seen the total go "under" the number in three of five this year vs. teams with winning records, while Chicago has seen it dip below the posted number in three of five vs. division opponents. This is a great situational play, as I expect Packers' starting QB Aaron Rodgers to come in a with a bit of rust in his first game back from injury, leaning heavily on his team's improved rush attack. Rodgers would be wise to be keep his eyes open for the Bears' Lance Briggs, who looks for a better performance in his second game back in the lineup. The situation, the numbers and the trends all point to the "under" as the correct call in this one. Good luck, Nick Parsons |
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12-28-13 | Rutgers v. Notre Dame OVER 52.5 | Top | 16-29 | Loss | -106 | 98 h 28 m | Show |
10* TOTALS CLUB "over" Rutgers/Notre Dame.
Both teams come in highly motivated for a victory, and because of that I'm expecting a shootout. It was an up-and-down year for the Fighting Irish after playing in the BCS last season. They finished 8-4, dropped two of their last three, almost rallying from 15 points down at then No. 8 Stanford in their regular season finale on November 30th, only to succumb 27-20 in the end. The Irish have a long history of playing in the Bronx, and want to add to it positively today: ''We were privileged to play in New York City and Yankee Stadium in 2010. The treatment our university received from the Steinbrenner family, the New York Yankees and the entire organization was unlike anything we've experienced in my tenure at Notre Dame,'' Irish head coach Brian Kelly said recently. Rutgers backed its way into the postseason, ending a three-game slide with a 31-6 win over USF on December 7th to finally become eligible. RB Paul James will be leaned upon heavily today; James had 113 yards and two TDs vs. South Florida. Also note, Rutgers is going to be forced to push the action on offense, as it's defense was just terrible this year; while it did shutout down lowly USF, it had given up an average of 38 points over its previous seven games, and its 311.4 passing yards allowed per outing ranks it among the countries worst marks. That certainly doesn't bode well vs. Notre Dame's QB Tommy Rees who threw for almost 2,940 yards, had 27 TDs through the air and posted a spectacular 138.1 passer rating this season. Rees' favorite target was TJ Jones who would finish with 1,042 yards and nine TDs. So that definitely means that Scarlet Knights' QB Chas Dodd, who will be making his third straight start and who went 19 of 24 for 179 yards, two TDs and no INTs vs. South Florida, is going to have to throw the ball today. Note that Rutgers has seen the total fly above the number in three of five vs. teams with winning records this year and in all three games that it's played with two weeks or more of rest. And note that Notre Dame has interestingly seen the total eclipse the number in two of three this year as a favorite in the 10.5 to 21 points range. The situation, the numbers and the trends all point to the "over" as being the prudent wager in this matchup. Good luck, Nick Parsons |
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12-27-13 | Marshall v. Maryland UNDER 62.5 | 31-20 | Win | 100 | 78 h 38 m | Show | |
8* play "under" Marshall/Maryland.
This game is being played at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium in Annapolis, a short drive for Maryland from College Park campus. The Terps season, while it ended with a fizzle, must still be considered a success at 7-5. Maryland would open 2013 with four straight wins. It was obliterated 63-0 by FSU on October 5th. QB CJ Brown had to battle through injuries throughout the year, while top receiver Stefon Diggs was lost for the season with a broken leg. Brown looked great in the regular-season finale at NC State though, running for three major scores and throwing for two more in a convincing 41-21 victory back on November 30th. It was Maryland's last game in the ACC as it heads over to the Big Ten next year. Maryland will have its hands full in trying to stop the Thundering Herd's up-tempo offense; led by QB Rakeem Cato, the Terrapins rank seventh in the country in scoring. The Herd though would lose 41-24 to Rice in the Conference USA championship game on December 7th. A victory today would give Marshall its first 10-win season since 2002. Ultimately I believe the extra time off between games will have left some rust on these normally well-oiled offensive units. It's interesting to note that Marshall has seen the total dip below the posted number in seven of its last 11 non-conference games, while Maryland has seen it fall "under" the number in three of its last four over the last two years when playing with two weeks or more of rest. The situation, the numbers and the trends all point to the "under" as being the prudent wager in this matchup. Good luck, Nick Parsons |
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12-24-13 | Oregon State v. Boise State UNDER 65 | Top | 38-23 | Win | 100 | 156 h 1 m | Show |
10* TOTALS CLUB "under" Oregon State/Boise State.
Oregon State finished 6-6, while Boise State was 8-4. These are a couple of normally high-scoring teams, however, I'm expecting a more defensive battle this evening. Boise State is looking to win a team-record fifth straight Bowl game; it will be leaning heavily upon RB Jay Ajayi who finished second in the Mountain West with almost 1,330 yards rushing, averaging 5.9 yards per carry with 18 TD's. The Broncos were led by Ajayi in their 45-17 season-ending win over New Mexico on November 30th, racking up 147 rushing yards and a major score off of 22 carries, while also snagging four passes for a career-high 105 yards and another TD. Boise State will have a game time decision for its QB; either Joe Southwick or Grant Hedrick will start, meaning Ajayi's run proficiency will be extra important tonight. Throwing against Oregon State is easier said than done as well as the Beavers allow an average of 235 yards through the air, ranking second in the Pac-12 with 19 INTs. The Beavers stumbled into the postseason; QB Sean Mannion threw 11 INTs compared to seven TDs over the final five games. Note that Oregon State has seen the total dip below the number in three of its last five when playing with two weeks or more of rest, while Boise State has seen it fall "under" the number in three of its last four as an underdog. The situation, the numbers and the trends all point to a lower-scoring battle; this number is just a little bit high. Play on the "under". Good luck, Nick Parsons |
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12-22-13 | Denver Broncos v. Houston Texans UNDER 53.5 | Top | 37-13 | Win | 100 | 25 h 9 m | Show |
10* TOTALS CLUB "under" Broncos/Texans.
The Denver Broncos are 11-3, while the Houston Texans are just 2-12. Houston has seen the total go "over" the number in six of seven at home this year, while Houston has seen it soar above the posted number in five of six on the road. These two amazingly lop-sided trends collide on Sunday afternoon and when the smoke clears at the end of this one, I'm fully expecting a "correction" to have occurred. This is a great situational play as well, as both teams have key offensive weapons sitting out: for the Broncos, dynamic WR Wes Welker will be out for the playoffs, and for the Texans, RB Arian Foster will be sitting. The Broncos are in a fight still, but control their destiny, with a game in lowly Oakland next week. The one area that Denver obviously needs to fix is on the defensive side of the ball. Denver is looking to bounce back from a 27-20 defeat to San Diego last week; here's a perfect opponent for the defense to get untracked against. The Texans are stumbling to the finish line and managed just 3-points at Indianapolis last week. When the final whistle sounds this afternoon, I'm expecting to have witnessed a hard-fought, conservative style of game and for this number to ultimately sneak below the posted number. Good luck, Nick Parsons |
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12-22-13 | Minnesota Vikings v. Cincinnati Bengals UNDER 48.5 | Top | 14-42 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 9 m | Show |
10* TOTALS CLUB "under" Vikes/Bengals.
As with most of "totals selections", this fits into one of my systems, but is also a great situational play. Minnesota has seen the total go 5-2 on the road this year, while Cincinnati has seen it go 4-2 at home. When the smoke does finally clear at the end of this one, I'm expecting a "correction" to have occurred. Note that the Vikes have seen the total go "under" the number in four of their last five as a road dog in the 7.5 to 10 points range, while the Bengals have seen it dip below the number in ten of their last 18 vs. teams with losing records. I had a bad call last week with the Vikes' "under", as Minnesota was able to easily move the ball against the Eagles porous defensive unit; I don't think that happens at all this week though vs. a highly motivated Bengals team which is coming off a listless 30-20 setback at Pittsburgh last weekend. Note that Minnesota is just 4-9-1 this year, all four victories coming at home; it's an abysmal 0-6-1 away from friendly confines. Cincinnati is undefeated at home though and controls its playoff destiny; a game at home vs. Baltimore next week puts on added emphasis on today's contest. I'm expecting to see a highly concerted effort from the Bengals defensive unit. There's no question that the Vikes can put up some numbers in the dome, but their achilles heel has been their play on the road; with inclement conditions expect, look for their offense to stall once again. The situation, the numbers and the trends all point to a lower-scoring game; play on the "under". Good luck, Nick Parsons |
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12-21-13 | USC v. Fresno State OVER 62 | Top | 45-20 | Win | 100 | 80 h 6 m | Show |
10* TOTALS CLUB "over" USC/Fresno State.
USC will be led by offensive coordinator Clay Helton today, with Steve Sarkisian taking over next season. The Trojans had a bit of a break out year, doing better than what most expected them to, but they'll be looking to atone for a somewhat lacklustre 35-14 home loss to then No. 22 UCLA in their regular season finale. USC will have its hands full trying to slow down a Fresno State offense led by senior QB Derek Carr though; Carr ranks first in the country in passing (409.8 YPG), third in total offense (570.6) and fifth in scoring at 43.5 per game. The Bulldogs won the Mountain West Conference title game on December 7th, a 24-17 victory over Utah State. Fresno State actually leads the nation with 73 passing plays of 20-plus yards, Carr helped out by an awesome receiving core which is led by Devante Adams, with 122 catches and 23 TDs, ranking second with 1,645 yards. The Trojans aren't likely to start RB Silas Redd today because of a knee injury, meaning that Javorious Allen is expected to fill in; Allen has been very competent in backing up Redd this year, averaging 112.4 yards over his last five games, scoring 10 major scores in that stretch. It's interesting to note that USC saw the total fly above the posted number in both games it played this year off a loss vs. a conference rival. And conversely, note that Fresno State saw the total go "over" the number in four of seven games this year off a win vs. a conference rival. In what is expected to be perfect playing conditions, look for these two teams to open up the playbook and for this total to sneak above the posted number late; play on the "over". Good luck, Nick Parsons |
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12-16-13 | Baltimore Ravens v. Detroit Lions UNDER 48.5 | Top | 18-16 | Win | 100 | 149 h 22 m | Show |
10* TOTALS CLUB "under" Ravens/Lions.
Both teams are in position for a playoff birth, and as such, I'm expecting a smash-mouth, hard-hitting affair, an emphasis on ball and clock control by each. I look for this total to ultimately sneak below the posted number once the final whistle sounds. Baltimore is rolling, but faces a difficult end to its year with two of its final three on the road, including a visit to Cincinnati in its regular season finale. Detroit is stumbling down the stretch, loser of three of its last four. The Lions will be looking to atone for their pathetic effort in last week's "Snow Bowl" in Philadelphia in which they gave up a ghastly 28 points in the final 15 minutes. Expect a renewed commitment to the run game this week for the home side with the expected return of dynamic back Reggie Bush. Note that Baltimore has seen the total dip below the posted number in 11 of its last 18 after two or more consecutive SU victories. And note, despite the high-scoring shootouts its played in this season, Detroit has interestingly seen the total go "under" the number in both of its Monday night contests over the last two seasons. A great situational play; I believe that the numbers, the trends and the situation all clearly point to the "under" as being the prudent wager in this particular matchup. Good luck, Nick Parsons |
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12-15-13 | Philadelphia Eagles v. Minnesota Vikings UNDER 51.5 | Top | 30-48 | Loss | -110 | 162 h 46 m | Show |
10* TOTAL OF THE YEAR "under" Eagles/Vikings.
If you've followed me for a while, you already know what I'm going to say, but for new clients, or for people hopping on board for this big play, I'm going to repeat something I've been trying to club everyone over the head with, which is just to let them know about my "handicapping style". I'm a situational handicapper. For the most part, individual player match-ups are meaningless in my process. I'm also a "numbers" guy. Did you ever see the movie "Moneyball" starring Brad Pitt as Billy Beane? The movie is about how the A's organization transformed the way MLB clubs put together their teams. The A's unorthodox style of selecting their players looked purely at "numbers" (both statistical numbers and financial dollars), and not individual "star" players. That's pretty much how I handicap my games; I look at numbers and trends, not who is on the field, in the back-court, or between the pipes. Philadelphia has seen the total go 5-1 on the road this season, while Minnesota has seen it go 5-1 in front of the home town crowd. These amazingly lop-sided trends collide on Sunday afternoon, and once the final whistle sounds at the end of the day, I expect a "correction" to have occurred. Note that Philadelphia has in fact already seen the total go "under" the number in three of four this year after two or more consecutive SU victories, and in three of four as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range. And note that Minnesota has seen the total dip below the number in four of its last five vs. the Eagles franchise. This is a big game for the Eagles obviously as they look to win a sixth-straight. They'll be facing a Minnesota side that is likely to be without the services of star RB Adrian Peterson due to injury; note that if he does play, AP will be far from 100% today. So "looking past" the Vikes' is absolutely not something that Philadelphia can do: "It probably is (a trap game) in the media's eye, but we know that Minnesota is a great team and you can't get caught up looking at records or anything like that," Eagles' centre Jason Kelce said yesterday. "All you can do is focus on how they play defense, and then for me, focus on what's the best way to attack them and score points." Also note that Minnesota's competent backup RB Toby Gerhart missed practice this week as well because of a hamstring injury, and is also listed as questionable. Minnesota's offense has been a work in progress all year, and its defense has been pretty horrible; if the Vikes have any shot at winning today though, it's the defensive unit which will have to pick up the slack. I believe that a home-game is just what the doctor ordered to give the group the "shot in the arm" they need. The situation, trends and the numbers all point to the "under" as being the sharp wager in this one. Good luck, Nick Parsons |
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12-08-13 | NY Giants v. San Diego Chargers OVER 45.5 | Top | 14-37 | Win | 100 | 152 h 30 m | Show |
10* TOTALS CLUB "over" Giants/Chargers.
When you think of these two clubs, for the most part "offense" is one of the first things that comes to mind. With Eli Manning under center for New York and Philip Rivers in San Diego, there's no question that these two elite QB's have the potential to put points on the board in a hurry at any given moment. However, surprisingly that hasn't been the case for the Giants on the road this year as the total is just 2-4 for them away from friendly confines. And equally as surprising, the Chargers have seen the total go 2-3 at home this season. These two lop-sided trends collide on Sunday afternoon and I'm absolutely expecting them to correct themselves in this game as each side opens up the playbook offensively. Note that New York has seen the total go "over" the number in three of four this year as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, and in 8 of its last 12 in the same position over the last two. And note that San Diego has seen it soar above the total in all three non-conference games it's played this season and in seven of its last 11 in the same position over the last two. Both teams still have playoff aspirations, and as such, we can expect each to push from the opening kickoff until the final whistle. A sunny afternoon in San Diego, along with the other factors I've listed above, all point to a higher-scoring shootout between these two hopeful clubs. Play on the "over". Good luck, Nick Parsons |
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12-08-13 | Detroit Lions v. Philadelphia Eagles OVER 54 | Top | 20-34 | Push | 0 | 148 h 6 m | Show |
10* TOTALS CLUB "over" Lions/Eagles.
Inclement weather forecasted has done little to effect this total. Detroit is 7-5, including 3-3 on the road. It hammered Green Bay 40-10 on Thanksgiving and I look for that offensive momentum to get carried over into this game. Philadelphia is 7-5, but just 2-4 in front of the home town crowd. It's coming off a 24-21 win over Arizona last weekend. Note that Detroit has seen the total fly above the posted number in four of five this year vs. teams with winning records, and in 15 of its last 24 over the last two seasons in the same position. And note that Philadelphia has seen it soar above the number in ten of its last 16 when playing against a team with a winning record. Both teams are rolling and I expect each to open up the playbook today. While Detroit looked better defensively last week, note that it was an oddity, its least amount of points given up in the last two years; expect the Lions' defensive unit to return to mediocrity in the hostile conditions. The Eagles have finally found their starting QB, the offense is rolling like a well oiled machine. That said, the defensive unit is clearly the weak point for Philadelphia, and there's no question that it will have its hands full with this explosive Lions offense. The situation and trends all point to a higher-scoring shootout; play on the "over". Good luck, Nick Parsons |
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12-08-13 | Buffalo Bills v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers UNDER 43 | Top | 6-27 | Win | 100 | 148 h 6 m | Show |
10* TOTALS CLUB "under" Bills/Bucs.
Here's a great situational play. Buffalo is 4-8, including only 1-4 away from friendly confines. Tampa Bay is 3-9, including only 2-4 at home. The Buccaneers have seen the total go 4-2 at home this year, while the Bills have seen it fly above the number in four of five on the road this season. These lop-sided trends collide on Sunday, and I absolutely look for them to correct themselves as I expect these two bottom feeders to slug it out in an ugly affair in early December. Note that Buffalo has seen the total dip below the posted number in four of its last seven as a road dog of 3 points or less. And note that Tampa Bay has seen the total go "under" the number in two of three this year when playing the role of favorite. Both teams made mistakes last week which cost them their respective games; Buffalo would cough the ball up in its final two possessions in Sunday's 34-31 OT loss to Atlanta in Toronto, guaranteeing the beleaguered club a 14th straight season without a playoff appearance. I believe that crushing setback will be weighing heavily on this teams' collective psyche. Tampa Bay was rolling with three straight victories but went into Carolina and got thoroughly embarrassed in a 26-7 setback, finishing with a dismal 206 total yards of offense. With both teams putting an added emphasis on running the ball while on offense, and overall ball and clock control, and when couple with the situation and strong "under" trends each team exhibits in this spot, all signs do indeed point to a lower-scoring affair. In this "chess match" style of game where field position becomes paramount, I'm going to play the "under". Good luck, Nick Parsons |
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12-07-13 | UL-Lafayette v. South Alabama OVER 58 | Top | 8-30 | Loss | -110 | 109 h 33 m | Show |
10* TOTALS CLUB "over" Louisiana Lafayette/South Alabama.
Louisiana Lafayette is 8-3, including 5-1 in conference, coming off a 31-28 loss to Louisiana Monroe last week. South Alabama is 5-6, including 3-3 in conference and it's coming off a 38-17 win over Georgia State last weekend. The last time these teams played against each other, the Cajuns would pull away for the 52-30 victory. I believe that we'll see a similar high-scoring affair in the 2013 version once the smoke clears at the end of this one. This is a huge game for the Ragin Cajuns, as at 5-1 in conference, ULL can become the only team to win six games this year, which would wrap up the conference championship: |
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12-07-13 | Texas v. Baylor UNDER 73.5 | Top | 10-30 | Win | 100 | 104 h 3 m | Show |
10* TOTALS CLUB "under" Texas/Baylor.
No. 23 Texas gets set to battle No. 9 Baylor at Floyd Casey Stadium this afternoon. Baylor would hold on for a 41-38 win at TCU last weekend, but was held under 400 yards for the first time in an amazing 38 games. The Bears will once again have their hands full defensively as the Longhorns come into this contest with considerable momentum on that side of the field, dominating Texas Tech 41-16 last time out (the Red Raiders had come into that game averaging 37.5 points per contest). Note that Texas has seen the total go "under" the number in all four games that it's played vs. teams with winning records this season and in four of six off a win vs. a conference rival. And despite being one of the highest scoring teams in the nation the last two seasons, with it almost impossible to find a single "under" trend in any of the O/U statistical categories, note that Baylor has seen the total go "under" the number in two of three already this season as a favorite in the 10.5 to 21 points range. I have a favorable line in this contest, getting down earlier in the week at 73.5; for the most part it's now 71.5 across the board. So what's the reason for the two-point or so drop? Inclement weather is one reason; 40% chance of freezing rain reported, a Northeast wind at 9-14, wind chill of 20, freezing rain may mix with sleet. Also note that Texas' RB Johnathan Gray is out, while Baylor WR Tevin Reese is also sitting. This can still be a high-scoring shootout and fall below this sky-high number and that's exactly what I'm expecting; play on the "under". Good luck, Nick Parsons |
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12-07-13 | Memphis v. Connecticut OVER 43 | Top | 10-45 | Win | 100 | 102 h 34 m | Show |
10* TOTALS CLUB "over" Memphis/Connecticut.
Memphis is 3-8, including only 1-6 in conference. It's coming off a 41-21 loss to Temple on November 30th. Connecticut is 2-9, including 2-5 in conference. It's coming off a 28-17 win over Rutgers last week. The Huskies will look to close out their regular season with a victory after what can only be considered a disappointing overall effort. Head coach TJ Weist wants to send his seniors out with a win: |
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12-05-13 | Louisville v. Cincinnati OVER 51 | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 60 h 18 m | Show |
10* TOTALS CLUB Louisville/Cincinnati.
As with most of my totals selections, this sets up as one of my "system" plays. From my vast experience of line-movement watching, I believe that certain lop-sided trends are corrected over the course of a year. Louisville is 10-1 this season, the O/U sits at 2-9. That's 2-5 at home for the Cardinals and 0-4 on the road. Cincinnati is 9-2, the O/U sitting at 6-5. This marks the 53rd meeting in the series for the "Keg Of Nails" which dates back to 1929. The Bearcats have won four of the past five matchups, including two-in-a-row at Nippert Stadium. This is a significant game for both teams, the last contest between the two schools for the foreseeable future and the very last game to be played in the current configuration of the facility, which will undergo a near $100 million renovation starting next week. Cincinnati still has BCS aspirations on the line as well, so a victory today is paramount. A great situational play. Expect the home side to open up the playbook and for No. 19 Louisville to match the pace; all signs definitely point to a higher-scoring affair. Good luck, Nick Parsons |
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12-01-13 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers v. Carolina Panthers OVER 41.5 | Top | 6-27 | Loss | -105 | 147 h 16 m | Show |
10* CONFERENCE TOTAL OF THE YEAR "over" Buccaneers/Panthers.
I am a situational handicapper. For the most part, individual player match-ups are meaningless in my process. When the smoke clears at the end of this one, I'm expecting to have seen a high-scoring shootout and for this total to eclipse the number as the game comes down the stretch. Note that Tampa Bay has already seen the total go "over" the number in two of three in revenging a loss vs. an opponent this year and in five of eight as an underdog. Carolina is one of the better defensive teams obviously; take note though that it's shown a penchant to playing to higher scoring games in this position already this year, the total flying above the number in three of five as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range. The Panthers have also seen the total go "over" the number in two of three vs. teams with losing records, and in 11 of their last 14 vs. division opponents (Tampa has seen it fly above the number in three of four vs. divisional foes this year). This is a big game for both teams. For Tampa it's an opportunity to build on three straight victories in which its totalled 87 points. It also looks to avenge a listless 31-13 loss at home to Carolina back in Week 8. For Carolina, another divisional win is on the line today as it goes for its eighth straight victory, before a big game on the road next week in New Orleans. This sets up as a classic high-scoring shootout in my opinion. Tampa has a ton of confidence and I believe can catch a somewhat complacent home side defense off-guard and put some points on the board today, putting pressure on the Panthers do likewise. Play on the "over". Good luck, Nick Parsons |
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11-30-13 | San Diego State v. UNLV OVER 56.5 | Top | 19-45 | Win | 100 | 107 h 35 m | Show |
10* TOTALS CLUB "over" SDSU/UNLV.
I am a "situational" handicapper. For the most part, individual player match-ups are completely meaningless in my process. In this particular situation I expect these Mountain West division foes to battle tough, to open up the playbook and look for this total to eclipse the number as the game comes down the stretch. Note that SDSU has already seen the total go "over" the number in four of seven vs. conference opponents this year. Note that UNLV has seen the total go "over" the number in 16 of its last 26 as an underdog. This is a big game for the home side; while it's already bowl eligible, a win today would absolutely secure it a postseason berth and it would also snap a three-game losing streak to the Aztecs. Neither team will be playing in the Mountain West title game, but both are actually looking to secure better bowl positions. SDSU lost its first three games of the year, but a victory today for it would see it having gone 8-1 the rest of the way. No need to overanalyze this one; the situation and strong O/U trends all point to the "over" as being the prudent wager in this matchup. Play on the "over". Good luck, Nick Parsons |
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11-30-13 | Penn State v. Wisconsin OVER 49 | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 100 h 36 m | Show |
10* TOTALS CLUB "over" Penn State/Wisconsin.
I am a "situational" handicapper. For the most part, individual player match-ups are completely meaningless in my process. In this particular situation I expect these Big 10 rivals to open up the playbook and for this total to soar above the posted number once the smoke clears at the end of the night. Note that Penn State has already seen the total go "over" the posted number in two of three this year off a loss vs. a conference rival. Despite the low-scoring games it's been in this season, it's still applicable to note that Wisconsin has in fact seen the total go "over" the number in 16 of its last 25 vs. conference opponents. This is a big game for Wisconsin; it's won six-straight and is sitting one spot out of the Top 14 in the BCS standings, a number it needs to attain for an at-large berth in a premier bowl contest. The Badgers certainly have experience on their side with 23 seniors playing their final regular season contest in front of the home town crowd. However, Penn State will be relishing the role of spoiler today; after last week's 23-20 OT loss to Nebraska in its home finale, the Nittany Lions will be looking to stave off finishing .500 (6-5, 3-4): "Our team realizes that we still have one more game," offensive tackle Garry Gilliam said. "You could still see (in the locker room) in everyone's eyes that we've got to fight and get our seventh win here." I think the visitors come to play today and push the home side from the opening kickoff until the final whistle; all signs point to a higher-scoring affair. Play on the "over". Good luck, Nick Parsons |
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11-30-13 | Ohio State v. Michigan UNDER 61 | Top | 42-41 | Loss | -110 | 96 h 17 m | Show |
10* TOTALS CLUB "under" Ohio State/Michigan.
If you've been a client of mine for a while, then you know that I am a "situational" handicapper. For the most part, individual player match-ups are completely meaningless in my process. In this particular situation I expect these two schools to battle tough and for the total to ultimately fall below the posted number. It's almost impossible to find a single "under" trend for Ohio State in any statistical O/U category over the last two seasons, therefore it's significant to note that has in fact seen the total dip below the posted number in four of its last six vs. the Wolverines. And having already seen the total go "under" the number in all three games that it's played this year as an underdog, note that Michigan has seen it dip below the number in seven of its last ten in the same position over the last two. After spanking Indiana last Saturday, Ohio State earned a spot in the Big Ten Championship game; so while the players and coaches say they won't be looking ahead to that contest, or be thinking about the BCS, there's no question that this sets up as a classic "trap" game for the visitors, a natural "letdown" spot. The Wolverines are coming off a brutal 24-21 loss at Iowa last week. They're just 3-4 in conference play. They're bowl eligible, but there's no question that they're disappointed where they're sitting right now. No time to dwell on what could have been for the home side though which must now gear up for its biggest game of the year. A victory today would not salvage an otherwise poor season, but there is definitely an opportunity for the Wolverines. An opportunity to put a giant monkey-wrench into the Buckeyes national championship plans. There's not a single person involved with either team that needs any added motivation to get "up" for this game, the most "important" one for both schools of the entire season. When you throw in some adverse weather conditions, all signs point to a lower-scoring "chess match" style of contest where field position will become paramount. Play on the "under". Good luck, Nick Parsons |
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11-29-13 | South Florida v. Central Florida OVER 48.5 | Top | 20-23 | Loss | -110 | 80 h 31 m | Show |
10* TOTALS CLUB South Florida/Central Florida.
I am a situational handicapper. Individual player match-ups for the most part are meaningless in my process and in this particular situation I'm expecting these conference foes to open up the playbook and for this total to sneak above the posted number once the smoke clears at the end of the night. The UCF Knights will be highly motivated here: "We just look at it as another championship game, another conference game that we've got to win," Knights' wide receiver Jeffrey Godfrey said earlier in the week. "We're just going out there like every week, practicing hard for a championship game and not worrying about the rivalry (or) anything else anybody wants to call it." With a victory UCF can clinch at least a share of the AAC championship and inch its way closer to a BCS bowl appearance. Having already seen the total go "over" the posted number in three of five this year off a win over a conference rival, note that Central Florida has seen it fly above the number in ten of its last 14 in the same position over the last two. The Bulls will be looking to close out the season strong after last weeks 16-6 loss to SMU; expect a concerted effort from the team in the final regular season contest. Note that South Florida has seen the total fly above the posted number in three of its last five road games where the total is between 49 1/2 and 56. UCF is clearly focused on the task at hand and I believe will be looking to make this a statement game, putting its foot on the gas pedal on the opening kickoff and not letting up until the final whistle sounds. All signs point to a higher-scoring affair; play on the "over". Good luck, Nick Parsons |
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11-26-13 | Western Michigan v. Northern Illinois UNDER 63.5 | Top | 14-33 | Win | 100 | 30 h 38 m | Show |
10* TOTALS CLUB "under" WMU/NIU.
I am a situational handicapper. Individual player match-ups for the most part are irrelevant in my process and in this particular situation I expect these MAC rivals to battle tough on Tuesday night and for this total to ultimately sneak below the posted number once the smoke clears at the end of the game. The Broncos WMU is 1-10 overall, 1-5 on the road. Ten days ago it lost 27-22 to Central Michigan. An outright victory is obviously out of the question, but tonight's contest represents the final game of the season for the Broncos; this is a perfect spot for it to go out with a little pride, fighting the mighty, but I suspect "complacent" Huskies on their home turf. Note that Western Michigan has seen the total dip below the number in two of its last three as a road dog of 21.5 points or more. The Huskies NIU is 11-0, most recently coming off a 35-17 win over Toledo last week. This will be a cake-walk for the Huskies; expect them to go up early, and then maintain the lead by controlling and dictating the flow. Note that Northern Illinois has seen the total go "under" the posted number in 15 of its last 25 vs. conference opponents and in 17 of its last 27 after two or more consecutive SU victories. The Bottom Line Northern Illinois still has the MAC Championship game to play on December 6th, along with an upcoming Bowl contest, but regardless of that, this is a send off of sorts for the seniors; expect a dominant performance on both sides of the ball. I feel that the situation and trends all point to a lower-scoring affair; play on the "under". Good luck, Nick Parsons |
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11-25-13 | San Francisco 49ers v. Washington Redskins UNDER 47.5 | Top | 27-6 | Win | 100 | 25 h 21 m | Show |
10* TOTALS CLUB "under" 49ers/Redskins.
I am a situational handicapper. Individual player match-ups for the most part are irrelevant in my process and in this particular situation I expect these NFC foes to battle tough on the national stage and for this total to sneak below the posted number once the final whistle sounds. The 49ers The 49ers are 6-4, including 3-2 on the road. To say their in a tough division would be an understatement I have to think after the way the Rams and Cardinals dominated yesterday. Last week the 49ers would lose a frustrating 23-20 game in New Orleans, a contest which was theirs for the taking late. And because of the way the team lost, I fully expect it to be focused on the task at hand this evening, with no reason at all to look ahead to anything. Note that San Francisco has seen the total dip below the number in 11 of its last 20 as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, and interestingly in two of its last three when playing on Monday Night Football. The Redskins Washington is just 3-7 overall and 2-2 at home. They say "winning" solves everything; if that's the case, then losing sure has a way of amplifying the weaknesses. The Redskins most recently lost a listless 24-16 game at Philadelphia on Sunday. Having already seen the total go "under" the number in both games this year after two or more consecutive losses, note that Washington has seen it dip below the number in eight of its last 11 in the same position over the last two. The Bottom Line After epic rookie seasons a year ago, both teams' QB's have gone through some growing pains in 2013, both on and off the field. San Francisco's QB Colin Kaepernick is ranked 31st in the league in completion percentage at just 56.2, along with only 11 TD passes. Washington's QB Robert Griffin III has completed less than 60 percent of his passes for only 14 TD's to 10 INT's. So while the media discusses these polarizing pivots, we'll instead put our focus on the units which will be looking to play big tonight, and that's each team's defense. With each side putting an added emphasis on the run game to alleviate pressure off of their maligned QB and with a couple of stout defensive units going head to head on MNF, all signs point to a lower-scoring battle. Play on the "under". Good luck, Nick Parsons |
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11-24-13 | Indianapolis Colts v. Arizona Cardinals OVER 44.5 | Top | 11-40 | Win | 100 | 123 h 35 m | Show |
10* TOTALS CLUB "over" Colts/Cardinals.
I am a situational handicapper. Individual player match-ups for the most part are irrelevant in my process and in this particular situation I expect these two offensively minded dome teams to open up the playbook and expect this total to fly above the number early. Having already seen the total eclipse the number in two of three non-conference games this year, note that Indianapolis has seen it go 7-3 in the same position over the last two. And note that Arizona has seen it sail above the number in ten of its last 16 vs. clubs with winning records. The Colts are 4-1 on the road, while Arizona is 4-1 at home. Cards' QB Carson Palmer was 30 of 42 for 419 yards and two TDs in last Sunday's 27-14 win over the Jaguars; in all the veteran has completed nearly 69% of his passes with six TDs and two INTs over his last three games. QB Andrew Luck continues to shine for the visitors, but last week it was RB Donald Brown who would steal the show, going for a season-high 80 yards and scoring two second half majors. The conditions, situation and trends clearly point to a high-scoring game; play on the "over". Good luck, Nick Parsons |
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11-24-13 | Jacksonville Jaguars v. Houston Texans UNDER 43 | Top | 13-6 | Win | 100 | 140 h 43 m | Show |
10* TOTAL OF THE YEAR "under" Jaguars/Texans.
I am a situational handicapper. Individual player match-ups for the most part are irrelevant in my process and in this particular situation I expect these two struggling divisional foes to battle tough in Houston and for this total to sneak below the posted number once the smoke clears at the end of the afternoon. The Jaguars At 1-9 overall and 1-4 on the road, Jacksonville has actually been one of the most talked about teams this season, but for all the wrong reasons. It's looked pretty inept in all three phases, showing flashes of promise for a play or two. Despite the high-scoring games that it's been involved in this year, this has in fact been a spot which Jacksonville has seen the total dip below the number many times over the last two seasons; 4-10 to be exact in its last 14 vs. divisional opponents. The Texans Houston has always been a "sexy" darkhorse pick to win the Super Bowl, and that was once again the case in the offseason this year, however a number of different issues on both sides of the ball were exposed early and this team has struggled ever since. It's safe to say, at 2-8 overall and 1-4 at home, this is not where the Texans expected to be at this point of the season. Houston has been a disaster for bettors ATS this year, but for O/U bettors that have played the "over" in Texans' games, it's been a non-stop buffet of profits. That's why it's important to note that Houston has in fact seen the total dip below the number in three of its last four as a home favorite in the 7.5 to 10 points range. The Bottom Line Houston will start QB Case Keenum for a fifth straight time; he looked decent in last week's loss to the Raiders, but pretty inept in the second half, eventually getting pulled to make way for Matt Schaub. However, if the home side wants to break out of its funk, there's just one way to do it and that's to dominate defensively. The Texans rank first in the NFL in total yards allowed and passing yards. That doesn't bode well for a Jags team which was held to just 274 total yards in last week's 27-14 home loss to the Cardinals. Jacksonville amassed a season-low 32 yards on the ground. Unsurprisingly, the Jaguars are last in the league in averaging just 12.9 PPG. Look for the defensive units to be the main story in tomorrow's summaries and play the "under". Good luck, Nick Parsons |
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11-24-13 | San Diego Chargers v. Kansas City Chiefs OVER 41 | Top | 41-38 | Win | 100 | 120 h 33 m | Show |
10* TOTALS CLUB "over" Chargers/Chiefs.
I am a situational handicapper. Individual player match-ups for the most part are irrelevant in my process and in this particular situation I expect these division rivals to open up the playbook and for this total to sneak above the posted number as the game comes down the stretch. Note that San Diego has seen the total go "over" the number in two of three this year as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range and in seven of eight in the same position over the last two. It's almost impossible to find a single "over" trend for the Chiefs in any statistical category over the last two seasons, meaning that it's doubly important to note that it has in fact seen the total fly above the posted number in three of its last five as a home favorite in the 3.5 to 7 points range. This is an important game for the home side, which must quickly forget about last week's loss to the Broncos, focus on this divisional contest and not get caught "looking ahead" to another matchup vs. Denver on the horizon: "As great as it is to win, it's lousy when you lose. We have to find a way to deal with it," Chiefs' QB Alex Smith said yesterday. "We have to find a way to get better and prepare for (Sunday). We see (the Broncos) again in two weeks, but we have to prepare for another big division game (Sunday). These games keep getting bigger." Expect Smith and RB Jamaal Charles to get back on track this week after a sub-par effort vs. the Broncos. The Chargers will be motivated to hand the home side another loss; despite QB Philip Rivers throwing for 298 yards and RB Ryan Mathews going for a season-high 127 on the ground, the Chargers were limited to their fewest points of the season in last week's 20-16 loss at Miami, their fourth straight. Expect the Bolts' veteran QB to come out slinging, looking to take advantage of a secondary which was finally exposed vs. Denver last week. When you add it all up, all signs definitely point to a higher-scoring game; play on the "over". Good luck, Nick Parsons |
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11-24-13 | Carolina Panthers v. Miami Dolphins UNDER 41.5 | Top | 20-16 | Win | 100 | 120 h 32 m | Show |
10* TOTALS CLUB "under" Panthers/Dolphins.
I am a situational handicapper. Individual player match-ups for the most part are irrelevant in my process and in this particular situation I expect these non-conference opponents to battle tough in Miami and for this total to sneak below the posted number at the end of the afternoon. Note that Carolina has already seen the total go "under" the posted number in three of four this year after two or more consecutive victories. Having already seen the total dip below the posted number in three of five this year when playing the role of underdog, note that Miami has seen it go 10-16 in the same position over the last two. Carolina has been getting the job done quietly on both sides of the ball. QB Cam Newton is evolving once again into one of the elite in the league, seemingly "growing up" over night, being wise with his decisions and precise with his performance: "It's just fantastic, just watching Cam grow, watching him lead this team, watching him go 83 yards," Carolina's WR Steve Smith echoed earlier in the week. "You hear all about statistics, about other guys having game-winning drives. Now Cam has his game-winning drive against a big team, against a worthy opponent. Just watching the young man grow - I just saw that young, 24-year-old Cam Newton just chipping away." The Panthers' defense is led by DE Charles Johnson, first in the NFL in scoring defense at just 13.5 points allowed per game. The Fish won't go down without a fight though and looked great in slowing down the high-flying Chargers in last week's 20-16 victory. These are two tough defensive units going head to head; in these types of "chess match" style of contests where field position becomes paramount, there's only one way to play it: play on the "under"! Good luck, Nick Parsons |
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11-24-13 | Chicago Bears v. St. Louis Rams UNDER 46.5 | Top | 21-42 | Loss | -110 | 120 h 31 m | Show |
10* TOTALS CLUB "under" Bears/Rams.
I am a situational handicapper. Individual player match-ups for the most part are irrelevant in my process and in this particular situation I expect these conference rivals to battle tough under the dome and for this total to ultimately stay below the posted number. Note that Chicago has seen the total go "under" the number in two of three this season when playing the role of underdog, and in nine of 16 in the same position over the last two. And note that St. Louis has shown a penchant to play to an "under" in this position over the last two seasons, the total dipping below the number in ten of its last 16 vs. teams with winning records. Both teams are starting second string QB's. With Jay Cutler injured, Josh McCown will once again get the start for the Bears; in four games and two starts, McCown has thrown for 754 yards, five major scores and zero INT's. But as good as Chicago's offense has been at times this year, it's been the defense which has improved the most over the last few outings. Chicago has won two of its last three, giving up an average of just 20.3 points in the process. That doesn't bode well today for the Rams' Kellen Clemens; Clemens got his first win in three starts last time out in place of the injured Sam Bradford. St. Louis is coming out of its bye. Just like Chicago, while its offense has looked pretty good overall this year, it's been St. Louis' defensive unit which has really been turning the heads of late. Keep your eyes on Robert Quinn who had two sacks in his last outing. No need to overanalyze this one. A couple backups vs. two of the hottest defenses = a hard-fought low-scoring battle. Play on the "under". Good luck, Nick Parsons |
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11-23-13 | Arizona State v. UCLA UNDER 62.5 | Top | 38-33 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 34 m | Show |
10* TOTALS CLUB "under" Arizona State/UCLA.
I am a situational handicapper, individual player match-ups for the most part are irrelevant in my process and in my opinion, all signs point to a lower-scoring game between these conference foes. Both teams come into this game sitting at 8-2. ASU is 6-1 in conference, while UCLA is 5-2. The last time these teams played together, UCLA would hold on for the 45-43 win back on October 27th, 2012. I definitely expect a completely different combined result this time around. This is an important game for both teams obviously. ASU will need to win today to have a shot at playing in the Rose Bowl on New Year's day. And with a win today, the Sun Devils will clinch the Pac-12 South Division. "We've been talking about winning a championship here for two years," Arizona State coach Todd Graham said earlier in the week. "I know our guys are focused. It's a body of work at this point, there's not a lot of surprises between one team and another team. "This is a big game, I can't say that it's not a big game. It's one we've been pointing to all year long." The Bruins will be in for a long day vs. this Sun Devils defensive unit which has held opponents to 18.8 points in the past five games, while also recording 18 sacks and 10 INTs. After dropping back to back games, UCLA has won three in a row; QB Brett Hundley looked shaky though in last week's win over Washington, throwing for 159 yards and two TDs. RB Myles Jack picked up the slack last week with four rushing TDs; suffice it to say, we can expect another big dose of Jack tonight. Note that UCLA has seen the total dip below the number in four of five this year when playing against a team with a winning record. With both teams putting an added emphasis on the defensive side of the ball, as well as clock and ball control while on offense, all signs do indeed point to a lower-scoring affair. Play on the "under". Good luck, Nick Parsons |
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11-23-13 | Indiana v. Ohio State UNDER 81.5 | Top | 14-42 | Win | 100 | 22 h 5 m | Show |
10* TOTALS CLUB "under" Indiana/Ohio State.
I am a situational handicapper, individual player match-ups for the most part are irrelevant in my process and in my opinion, despite these teams being a couple of the highest-scoring in the nation, I believe that when the smoke clears at the end of the afternoon that this total will sneak below this sky-high number. Indiana is 4-6, most recently coming off a listless 51-3 loss at Wisconsin last week. A win today is impossible, meaning that this team has now lost all hope of becoming bowl eligible. With a final game in Purdue next week, the best the Hoosiers can finish this season is 5-7, on the outside looking in. I fully expect another letdown offensively as the team prepares to give the home crowd a send off vs. the lowly Boilermakers to end the season. Ohio State is rolling, 10-0 after last weeks 60-35 win over Illinois. With a game at Michigan next week, this afternoon's contest sets up as a classic "letdown/look ahead" spot for the Buckeyes. I believe their well-oiled offense will come out a little flat footed because of it. This total is just ridiculous in my opinion. I believe the situation sets up perfectly for a lower-scoring affair. Play on the "under". Good luck, Nick Parsons |
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11-23-13 | Pittsburgh v. Syracuse UNDER 50 | Top | 17-16 | Win | 100 | 19 h 6 m | Show |
10* TOTALS CLUB "under" Pittsburgh/Syracuse.
Pittsburgh is 5-5, just 2-4 in conference. It is coming off a 34-27 loss to North Carolina last week and desperately needs one more win to become bowl eligible. Syracuse is 5-5, 3-3 in conference. It's coming off a humbling 59-3 defeat at FSU last week. The Orange also need one more victory to become bowl eligible. The last time these teams met, Syracuse would hold on for the 14-13 victory on October 5th, 2012. I am a situational handicapper, individual player match-ups for the most part are irrelevant in my process and in my opinion, this sets up as another classic low-scoring, defensive battle. Both teams coming off losses, and each nees a victory to punch its ticket to the postseason; we can expect both to play with a concerted effort defensively today after getting embarrassed last week. The Panthers are predicated on their tough defensive play, while the Orange had not given up a TD in two straight games before getting smoked by the Seminoles. Note that Pittsburgh has seen the total go "under" the number in five of its last six as a road favorite and in 11 of its last 14 on the road. Note that Syracuse has seen the total dip below the number in four of six vs. conference opponents this season. The Bottom Line When taking all of the above factors into consideration, this "chess match" style of contest points to the total dipping below the posted number. Good luck, Nick Parsons |
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11-22-13 | Navy v. San Jose State UNDER 59 | Top | 58-52 | Loss | -102 | 15 h 54 m | Show |
10* TOTAL "under" Navy/San Jose.
Navy is 6-4, including 1-4 on the road. It's coming off a 42-14 win over South Alabama last week. San Jose State is 5-5, including 2-2 at home. It's coming off a 38-16 loss at Nevada last week. The last time these teams played against each other was on September 29th, 2012 and San Jose State would hold on for the 12-0 victory. While I definitely expect more points to be scored tonight, I do believe we'll see a similarly hard-fought affair again this season and ultimately expect this total to dip below the posted number when the smoke clears at the end of the night. The Midshipmen With the victory, Navy can now relax as its become bowl eligible. In all the Midshipmen would rack up 351 rushing yards; expect a repeat performance in game-plan tonight. Defensively the team looked great and is poised to finish the season strong on that end of the ball. Note that Navy has seen the total go "under" the number in six of its last nine non-conference games and in five of its last eight after two or more consecutive SU wins. The Spartans Note that San Jose State has seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last 14 non-conference games. The Bottom Line I'm a "situational" handicapper, and because of the situation that both teams find themselves in coming into this contest, I feel that all signs point to a low-scoring battle. Navy needs more wins, but the pressure is off to become bowl eligible. Expect to see a heavy dose of the run tonight. With a game at Fresno State to end its season, tonight's game for San Jose State becomes a "must win" contest; the Spartans needs that single victory for their ticket to the "Bowling Season". As such, I expect a big effort from the defensive unit after last week's sub-par performance. Play on the "under". Good luck, Nick Parsons |
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11-21-13 | Rice v. UAB UNDER 63.5 | Top | 37-34 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
10* Totals Club "under" Rice/UAB.
Rice is 7-3, including 5-1 in conference. It's coming off a 52-14 win over Louisiana Tech last week. UAB is 2-8, including 1-5 in conference. It's coming off a listless 63-14 loss at East Carolina last week. The last time these teams played against each other was in 2010, Rice holding on for the 28-23 win. I believe that when the final whistle sounds at the end of tonight's contest that we'll see a similarly hard-fought and ultimately lower-scoring final outcome. The Owls Charles Ross had five rushing TDs in last week's commanding victory, which would tie a Conference USA record. In all Rice would set season highs with 415 yards rushing and 582 overall yards. Expect a duplicate game plan tonight; pound the rock from start to finish. Having already seen the total dip below the number in four of six vs. conference opponents this year, note that Rice has seen it go 9-13 in the same position over the last two. The Blazers QB Johathan Perry was a lone bright spot last week, finishing with 210 yards through the air along with one rushing TD. However, note that Perry was picked off twice. And it's interesting to note that UAB has seen the total go "under" the number in five of its last eight as an underdog in the 10.5 to 21 points range. The Bottom Line When taking into account the situations that each club finds itself in coming into tonight's game, along with these strong O/U trends listed above, there's no question in my mind that the prudent wager in this particular match-up is on the "under". Good luck, Nick Parsons |
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11-20-13 | Northern Illinois v. Toledo UNDER 73 | Top | 35-17 | Win | 100 | 27 h 46 m | Show |
10* TOTAL BOOKIEKILLER "under" Huskies/Rockets.
Northern Illinois is 10-0 and ranked No. 16 in the country. It's coming off a relatively easy 48-27 drubbing of Ball State last week. Toledo is 7-3 overall and 5-1 in conference. Last week it would hold on for a 51-41 win over Buffalo. The last time these teams played against each, Northern Illinois would hold on for the 31-24 victory; I believe that when the smoke clears at the end of this one that we'll have witnessed a similarly hard-fought, close and lower-scoring affair. Note that Northern Illinois has seen the total dip below the posted number in seven of its last 12 vs. teams with winning records, in 14 of its last 24 vs. conference opponents and interestingly, in 14 of its last 22 off a win vs. a conference rival. And note that Toledo has seen the total go "under" the number in all four this season as an underdog and in 12 of its last 24 in the same position over the last two. In fact, the Rockets have seen the total go "under" the number in 12 of their last 16 games overall. A great situational play; Toledo has a "cream puff" vs. Akron next week while Northern Illinois will be playing strategically tonight, running the ball throughout as to keep it out of the hands of Toledo's dangerous offensive unit. I'm expecting both teams to leave everything they have on the field; this can still be a higher-scoring game and stay below this sky-high number and that's exactly what I'm expecting. This total is just a little large; play on the "under". Good luck, Nick Parsons |
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11-19-13 | Kent State v. Ohio OVER 49 | Top | 44-13 | Win | 100 | 26 h 7 m | Show |
10* MAC TOTAL OF THE YEAR "over" Kent State/Ohio.
The last time these teams played together, the Golden Flashes would dominate 28-6. Kent State is just 3-8 this year, including 1-5 on the road. It's coming off a 24-6 win over Miami Ohio though and I believe can carry that offensive momentum over into this contest. Trayion Durham had 109 yards and a major score to lead the charge for the Flashes. In the end Kent State would out-gain Miami Ohio 447-176. Ohio is 6-4, including 4-1 at home. It's coming off a an embarrassing 49-0 loss at Bowling Green last week and will be eager to atone for the performance, and to also avenge last year's loss to the Flashes. It's been bit of a letdown for Ohio, back to back blowout losses (two weeks ago it was a listless 30-3 setback at Buffalo). It's been a natural "letdown" stretch for the Bobcats after they clinched bowl eligibility three weeks ago. However, take note in their previous two victories they totaled a whopping 97 points. With a couple of "cream puffs" to finish the year, there is no better time to re-focus on the task at hand and a little home cooking is just what the doctor ordered after two tough ones on the road. Having already seen the total go 2-1 this year as an underdog in the 3.5 to 10 points range, note that Kent State has seen it go 4-2 in the same position over the last two. And note that Ohio has seen the total go 8-7 in its last 15 when playing against a team with a losing record. All signs point to a higher-scoring affair; play on the "over". Good luck, Nick Parsons |
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11-17-13 | San Francisco 49ers v. New Orleans Saints UNDER 48.5 | Top | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 96 h 3 m | Show |
10* TOTALS CLUB "under" 49ers/Saints.
San Francisco is 6-3 overall and 3-1 on the road. It's coming off a listless 10-9 loss at home to Carolina last week. The 49ers inefficiency in the pass game has been fully exposed and we can now expect teams to use the same blue print of success every week to get into the back field to disrupt oft-maligned QB Colin Kaepernick. New Orleans is 7-2, including 5-0 at home. It's coming off a high-scoring 49-17 annihilation of the Cowboys last week. The Saints though will now face one of the better defensive units in the league, one which has held its last three opponents to a combined 37 points over its last three games. Despite the higher-scoring games that San Francisco has been involved in this year, note that it has in fact seen the total dip below the number in two of its last three as a road dog of 3 points or less. And note that New Orleans has seen the total go "under" the number in four of five vs. conference opponents this year. The Bottom Line San Francisco will make you pay if you force the long ball and as such, I expect the home side to really pound the rock today; this of course leads to ample clock killing. San Francisco will also need to establish its run game throughout to alleviate the pressure off of Kaepernick. The situational factors and trends all point to a low-scoring battle; play on the "under". Good luck, Nick Parsons |
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11-17-13 | Green Bay Packers v. NY Giants UNDER 43 | Top | 13-27 | Win | 100 | 96 h 3 m | Show |
10* TOTALS CLUB "under" Packers/Giants.
The Packers are 5-4, including 2-2 on the road. When starting QB Aaron Rodgers went down, the team promptly has lost two straight, combining to score just 33 points in the process, including a listless 27-13 setback at home to the Eagles last week. The Giants are 3-6, including 2-2 at home. They're coming off three straight victories, holding their opposition to just 34 points in the process. A great situational play here; Green Bay needs to lean heavily on RB Eddie Lacy throughout without its star under center to guide things. New York has put an added emphasis on running the ball as well during its win streak, topping 30 carries in each contest during its streak. Note that Green Bay has seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last 14 vs. teams with losing records. Note that New York has seen the total go "under" the number in 13 of its last 20 vs. teams with winning records. The Bottom Line All signs definitely point to an all out war and when the smoke clears at the end of this one, I expect the total to sneak below the posted number. Good luck, Nick Parsons |
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11-17-13 | Detroit Lions v. Pittsburgh Steelers OVER 46.5 | Top | 27-37 | Win | 100 | 93 h 41 m | Show |
10* TOTALS CLUB "over" Lions/Steelers.
Detroit is 6-3, including 3-2 on the road. Last week it held on for a 21-19 win at Chicago. Pittsburgh is 3-6, including 2-2 at home. Last week it beat Buffalo 23-10. Detroit leads the NFC North and will look to separate itself from the rest of the pack with a big win on the road at Heinz Field. The Steelers clearly have a different plan though, and sitting at 3-6, they still mathematically have a shot at winning the AFC North with Cincinnati at just 6-4. Note that Detroit has seen the total go "over" the number in both non-conference games it's played this season. Note that like their counterparts, the Steelers have seen the total go "over" the number in both of their non-conference match-ups this year. The Bottom Line Before the game vs. the lowly Bills, the Steelers defense had given up a mind-boggling 76 points in back to back losses to the Raiders and Patriots. This is not a good unit and is clearly a weak point for the team. That said, Pittsburgh's offense has looked much better of late and has been the unit which has had to win the games this year, putting up 54 points over the last two outings. The Lions' offense is licking its proverbial chops to get at the home sides' inept unit this week you can count on that. When the smoke clears at the the end of this one, I look for this total to sneak above the posted number. Good luck, Nick Parsons |
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11-17-13 | Baltimore Ravens v. Chicago Bears UNDER 46.5 | Top | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 93 h 40 m | Show |
10* TOTALS CLUB "under" Ravens/Bears.
Baltimore is 4-5 overall and just 1-4 on the road. It's coming off a 20-17 win over rival Cincinnati though and will definitely be looking to parlay that success (especially on the defensive end, remember, the Bengals had put up a combined 71 points over their previous two games) with another big effort in hostile territory. Chicago is 5-4, including 3-2 at home. It's coming off a 21-19 setback vs. Detroit on Sunday, losing its starting QB in the process. A great situational play here; Baltimore clearly showed progress on the defensive side of the ball last week and it will be putting an added emphasis on ball and clock control while on offense at blustery Soldier Field. The Bears will be without starting QB Jay Cutler for at least one contest as he deals with a sprained ankle. That means the team will be leaning extra heavily on RB Matt Forte, who will be extra motivated himself after being held to a season-low 33 yards on 17 carries last week. Note that Baltimore has seen the total go "under" the number in three of five on the road this season. Note that Chicago has seen the total go "under" the number in four of its last seven off a loss vs. a division rival. The Bottom Line When you think of these two teams, the very first thing that comes to mind is: "extremely tough defensive units". But for the most part, that's simply not been the case this season. I believe that changes this week though; the situation sets up perfectly as a smash mouth style of contest, where field position becomes paramount, and in these "chess match style" of games, I'll always take the "under". Good luck, Nick Parsons |
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11-16-13 | Indiana v. Wisconsin UNDER 70 | Top | 3-51 | Win | 100 | 91 h 10 m | Show |
10* "TOTALS CLUB" "under" Indiana/Wisconsin.
All five of these team's games vs. each other over the last five years have flown above the posted number, including last season's 62-14 victory by Wisconsin. Indiana is 4-5, including only 2-3 in conference. It's coming off a 52-35 beatdown of Illinois last week. Wisconsin is 7-2, including 4-1 in conference. It's coming off a 27-17 win over BYU last week. This is an important game for both sides and when the smoke finally clears at the end of this one, I expect the high-scoring trend between these teams to finally get bucked. The Hoosiers Indiana ranks 12th nationally with an average of 327.4 passing yards per game. Note though that the offense is likely to be without the services of RB Tevin Coleman, who leads the Big Ten in rushing. If Coleman can't go, senior Stephen Houston will step in; Houston already has 536 yards and three TDs while averaging over 7 yards per carry. The Badgers LB Chris Borland returns after a one-game absence due to a hamstring issue; he'll have his hands full today in stopping this explosive Indiana offense, but is good news nonetheless for Wisconsin. Despite its record, and no matter what it does to close the season, the Badgers are almost assuredly on the outside looking in to the BCS Bowl games. With a game at 8-2 Minnesota next week, it's hard not to imagine Wisconsin looking ahead to that contest just a little bit today. Note that the total has gone "under" the number in four of Wisconsin's last five in front of the home town crowd. The Bottom Line A great situational play. Indiana needs two win two of its last three games to become bowl eligible; that means that controlling the clock when on offense to keep the Badgers' unit off the field becomes paramount. Conversely, while this does fall into a "look ahead" spot for the home side, it can't afford any slip ups at this point of the year and a similar clock controlling game-plan will be instilled. When you take all of the above factors into consideration, this number is just a little high. Play on the "under". Good luck, Nick Parsons |
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11-11-13 | Miami Dolphins v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers OVER 40.5 | Top | 19-22 | Win | 100 | 173 h 42 m | Show |
10* O/U BOOKIEKILLER "over" Dolphins/Bucs.
Miami is 4-4, including 2-2 on the road. It's coming off a 22-20 win over the Bengals back on Halloween night. Tampa Bay has yet to win a game this year and is coming off a disheartening 27-24 setback at Seattle last week, a game in which it fell apart down the stretch. With both teams letting it all hang out tonight, I believe that the defenses will take a back seat to some explosive offensive fireworks and look for this total to sail above the posted number once the smoke clears at the end of the night. The Dolphins A great situational play; finally Miami can get out on the field and play and have something else to talk about than the Incognito scandal. A victory would put the Fish back into the front running of the AFC Wild-card race. Keep your eyes on RB Lamar Miller who had 105 yards on 16 carries last week. The defense looked sharp, sacking Andy Dalton for a safety in OT for the win and forcing four turnovers. QB Ryan Tannehill threw zero INT's. Note that Miami has already seen the total eclipse the number in both games that it's played this season as a favorite. The Buccaneers Tampa looks to make amends after letting a fourth quarter lead slip away to the Seahawks: "Tough loss, but there's a lot of good things on that tape. ... Things we can build off of," coach Greg Schiano said afterwards. There were definitely some silver linings to take out of the loss though as the 24 points scored by the Bucs was a season-high. QB Mike Glennon was 17 of 23 for 168 yards last week; he's thrown five TDs and no INTs over his last three games. Note that Tampa Bay has seen the total go "over" the posted number in four of six this year as an underdog, and in 17 of 28 in the same position over the last two. The Bottom Line All signs point to a higher scoring affair; play on the "over". Good luck, Nick Parsons |
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11-10-13 | Carolina Panthers v. San Francisco 49ers UNDER 42.5 | Top | 10-9 | Win | 100 | 144 h 19 m | Show |
10* TOTALS CLUB "under" Panthers/49ers.
Carolina has seen the total go 4-4 this year, including 3-1 on the road. Last week it annihilated the Falcons 34-10. San Francisco has seen the total go 5-3 this season, including 2-2 at home. It's won five straight, including a 42-10 annihilation of the Jaguars in London two weeks ago. Both clubs are loaded defensively and when the smoke clears at the end of the night, I expect these units to be the main story line in tomorrow's headlines. The Panthers Carolina has won four in a row over mediocre competition. It will have to be at it's best today to knock off the home side which comes into this game having won five straight. "I think a lot of people are doubting us and what not," tackle Jordan Gross said earlier in the week. "But we know how good we are and we've just got to go out there every week and prove it." QB Cam Newton will have his hands full today as the 49ers ranks fourth in the league in opponent passer rating at 75.3. Note that Carolina has seen the total go "under" the posted number in three of its last five off a win vs. a conference rival. The 49ers Like Carolina, San Francisco's win streak hasn't come against very good teams. That said, there's no question that it's turned things around after a sluggish start. RB Frank Gore is second in the NFL in rushing since Week 3 with 558 yards; he'll have to contend with the NFL's second-best run defense in the Panthers who allow only 79.1 YPG. QB Colin Kaepernick is in line for a tough outing as well as Carolina has given up a total of 43 yards on 21 carries to opposing QB's this season with zero TDs. Note that the 49ers' passing games ranks last in yardage this season. And note that San Francisco has seen the total go "under" the number in ten of its last 19 as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. The Bottom Line Offenses that are geared to run the ball vs. the league's elite defensive units; all signs point to a hard-hitting, low-scoring defensive battle. Play on the "under". Good Luck, Nick Parsons |
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11-10-13 | Seattle Seahawks v. Atlanta Falcons UNDER 44.5 | Top | 33-10 | Win | 100 | 141 h 15 m | Show |
10* play "under" Seahawks/Falcons.
Seattle has seen the total go 5-4 so far this season, including 3-2 on the road. Last week it came from behind to to beat the Bucs 27-24 in front of the home town crowd. Atlanta has seen the total go 5-3 this year, including 4-0 at home. It's lost two straight on the road, including a listless 34-10 setback at Carolina last week. After sub-par performances from each side in its last game, I look for each to put an added emphasis on the defensive side of the ball this week and look for this total to sneak below the posted number once the smoke clears at the end of the night. The Seahawks The 'Hawks come in with a chip on their shoulder after getting ousted from the playoffs by a FG in Atlanta last season. Expect a big defensive performance today; Seattle owns the leagues second ranked unit, allowing just 296 YPG. It's second in the NFL in passing yards allowed (under 180 per game), and is tied for the most INTs with 13. Note that Seattle has seen the total go "under" the posted number in in two of three road games this season when there total is between 42.5 and 45 points. The Falcons QB Matt Ryan is in for a long day today as he's throw seven INTs to just two TDs in back to back losses: "I think everybody is disappointed with where we're at, there's no question about it," Ryan said earlier in the week. "I think there were high expectations for our football team coming into the year, but certainly things have not gone as we'd hoped. "You've got to keep plugging away. You've got to keep working hard and try to find ways to make it better. I think that's what all of us are trying to do." The Falcons will look to once again get their ground untracked, last in the league in averaging 64.4 per game and just three rushing TDs. Note that Atlanta has seen the total go "under" the posted number in nine of its last 13 vs. teams with winning records. The Bottom Line A visiting side with a score to settle. A home team that's desperate to turn things around. This will be an all out war; play on the "under". Good luck, Nick Parsons |
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11-09-13 | BYU v. Wisconsin OVER 55 | Top | 17-27 | Loss | -110 | 81 h 13 m | Show |
10* TOTALS CLUB "over" BYU/Wisconsin.
BYU is 6-2 and has seen the total go 3-5 so far, including 1-2 on the road. It's coming off a 37-20 win over Boise State on October 25th. Wisconsin is 6-2 and has seen the total go 3-5 as well, including 1-3 at home. It's coming off a 28-9 win at Iowa last week. Both teams have bigger aspirations than to simply become "bowl eligible" and because of this, I expect each to open up the playbook and for this total to eclipse the number once the smoke clears at the end of the night. The Cougars It's interesting to note that BYU has seen the total fly above the posted number in seven of its last 11 after two or more consecutive SU victories. The Badgers Note that Wisconsin has seen the total fly "over" the posted number in 16 of its last 27 when playing the role of favorite. The Bottom Line Both schools have two players who average at least 100 rushing yards. It comes as no surprise to learn then that Wisconsin ranks 10th in the country in rushing with an average of 287 YPG, while BYU is 14th at 258.8. All signs point to a high-scoring shootout; play on the "over". Good luck, Nick Parsons |
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11-04-13 | Chicago Bears v. Green Bay Packers UNDER 48.5 | Top | 27-20 | Win | 100 | 228 h 42 m | Show |
10* "MNF TOTAL OF THE YEAR" Bears/Packers "under".
I played this game ten days ago and have 48.5. That line has now moved quite a bit the other way. Regardless of that, I absolutely love this selection and when the smoke clears at the end of the night, fully expect this total to stay below the posted number. The Bears Chicago lost 45-41 at Washington two weeks ago. Under new head coach Mark Trestman, the Bears have been one of the highest scoring teams in the league thus far, the O/U sitting at 6-1. In fact, over the last two seasons you'd be hard pressed to find a single "under" trend for Chicago in any statistical category. Therefore, it's definitely significant to note that the Bears have seen the total dip below the posted number in four of their last six as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range. The Packers Green Bay pulled away for a relatively simple 44-31 win at Minnesota last week. Green Bay has been one of the higher-scoring teams over the last few seasons, but has actually seen that trend reverse dramatically this year, especially at Lambeau; note that the Packers have seen the total go "under" the number in both games this season vs. teams with winning records and in two of three in front of the home town crowd. The Bottom Line Whenever these clubs get together it's an all out battle as evidenced by the fact that the O/U is 1-4 the last five in the series. Without Jay Cutler under center this week, the Bears will have a hard time moving the ball; note that Green Bay has won 11 straight at home, allowing an average of just 14.7 points, and in the last five of those games has given up just three field goals and no TDs in the first half. With Cutler out, expect to see a heavy dose of RB Matt Forte this evening. Chicago will have its hands full on the defensive side of the ball but catches a bit of a break with injuries to Jermichael Finley, Randall Cobb and James Jones. The Bears will also have to handle a run game which is ranked near the top of the league with an average of 141.4 per contest. With inclement conditions forecast and when taking into account all of the other factors that I listed above, all signs point to a hard-hitting, smash-mouth lower-scoring Monday Night Football. Play on the "under". Good luck, Nick Parsons |
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11-02-13 | Arizona v. California UNDER 68 | Top | 33-28 | Win | 100 | 23 h 54 m | Show |
10* "TOTALS CLUB" "under" Arizona/California.
Arizona is 5-2, most recently winning 44-20 at Colorado last week. California is just 1-7 this year, most recently coming off a lacklustre 41-17 loss at Washington. The last time these teams played against each other, Cal would hold on for the 10-9 victory back in 2010. There's no way this game is going to end with under 20 total points, but I do believe for a number of different reasons that this number is just a little high. The Wildcats Ka'Deem Carey had four rushing TD's, collecting 119 yards off 23 carries in last week's victory over the Buffs. QB BJ Denker ran for 192 yards. Expect to see another heavy dose of the run game as the Wildcats will look to control the tempo and pace of this contest from the outset. A great defensive game was overshadowed by the dominant run game, but it's safe to expect a repeat performance vs. the offensively challenged Bears today. It's significant to note that Arizona has seen the total stay below the posted number in three of its last five after two or more consecutive SU victories. The Golden Bears Cal is going to be in for a long night vs. Arizona's vaunted run game after it was gouged by Washington RB Bishop Sankey for 241 yards and two TDs in last weeks beatdown loss. It was California's sixth straight setback and it hasn't beaten an FBS opponent since October of 2012. Surprisingly, the best player on the team was QB Jared Goff; Goff's job was being questioned heading into that game but he'd finish 32 of 54 for 336 yards, no INTs and a 5-yard TD pass. Note that Cal has seen the total dip below the number in 16 of its last 23 vs. conference opponents. The Bottom Line This is a bad matchup for Goff and the Golden Bears; the team relies heavily on the pass game. The Arizona defense is built to stop the pass, allowing 6.1 yards per attempt, ranked 14th in the nation. It's run defense is ranked 53rd. When the smoke clears at the end of the night, expect this total to sneak below the posted number. Good luck, Nick Parsons |
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