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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-23-22 | Packers v. Commanders +5.5 | Top | 21-23 | Win | 100 | 2 h 25 m | Show |
The Commanders are off a rare win, and with Wentz out, have a capable and more mobile replacement in Heinecke. Neither of these two teams put up a lot of points. Washington is 29th, and has averaged just 13 points L3. The Commmanders’ defense has limited teams to 17 points on average, getting good results with strong passer pressure figures and tough red line defense. They have developed their rush attack, running more often and with better success, but haven’t been able to protect their own passer, have a high number of turnovers, and a low passer rating. Even with Rodgers at the helm, the Packers are not getting the job done on offense. They are still pass -centric, but Rodger’s targets are not of the usual Green Bay standard, and will be in short supply due to injury today. It has been more peckers than Packers, in the bird sense of the word. They are 27th in yards/completion, and middle of the pack in passing yards, low for a pass first offense. Rodgers has been sacked about as often as anyone, and the Packers turn the ball over an unacceptable number of times. The Packers have the league’s top pas defense, severely limiting yards, and with a sack % of 9.5. This could be more of a run-first game today, the Packers by necessity and the Commanders by design. It is hard to be bullish on this year’s Commanders, but I like their chances today. They will be very tough on a weak Packers’ O line, limiting points again. Take the Commanders with the points today |
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10-20-22 | Saints +2.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 34-42 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 31 m | Show |
The Saints and Cardinals, a pair of 2-4 underachievers, meet in Arizona in week 7. The Cardinals’ inability to score against a normally weak Seahawks defense last week was a bit of a surprise, although they are just 22nd in points scored, but no Tds against Seattle? The Saints put up 39 the week before. The Cardinals get Hopkins back, but lose Brown at the same time. Murray’s passer rating has averaged in the 80s and hit 64 last week. He did run well, but overall the Cardinals rush attack is exactly average. The Saint have not struggled to score points this year, it is preventing them that has been the problem, with the 29th points allowed so far this season. This from a team defense that was expected to be top ten this year. The Saints don’t pressure passers much, but have had 13 sacks to date, and they got to Burrows 3 times last week. Arizona has struggled to protect Murray in the last three games, culminating in a 6 sack game in week 6. The Saints will need to be tougher on him and cause a few turnovers; those have been few a nd far between. The Saints put up monster numbers with the run last week. Kamara has been hot but he isn’t their only option. They would be wise to stick to the running game. The pass attack was very poor last week. It is still unknown who will start on Thursday, but it probably won’t make that much difference. The Cardinals have struggled at home, and far more resemble the late 2021 team than the early one. Hopkins is a gain but is not going to be a one-person savior of the Cardinals’ problem offense. The Saints still have injury issues on offense but have managed to put up points anyway. Look for them to win or keep this game close. Take the Saints +1 ½. |
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10-17-22 | Broncos v. Chargers -4.5 | Top | 16-19 | Loss | -108 | 20 h 46 m | Show |
A much healthier Chargers team meets a struggling Broncos side on MNF. Wilson is playing hurt and has not shown well to say the least, stumbling out of week five with an ugly 54 passer rating. The Broncos are 31st in points scored and 32nd in red zone scoring. They've put up some yards but haven't converted on third downs and have no finish. They are 26th in sacks allowed, including 4 last week. |
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10-16-22 | Bills -2.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 15 h 45 m | Show |
The Bills face the Chiefs at Arrowhead coming in a 2.5 point favorite. Sure, it is Mahomes vs. Allen, two "pretty good" passers, but defense will decide this game, and on that note the Bills have a huge edge. Mahomes can maneuver his way out of most situations, but he may have his hands full on Sunday. A lot of the Chiefs' defense is just being on the field more than the opposition. While both pass defenses have solid pass pressure stats, the Bills do it with out blitzing much. Looking at other critical pass defense stats the Bills have a huge advantage, but none more explicit that opposing passer rating; the Bills are first with an avg. passer rating of 67, compared to KC's 105. Buffalo has given up the least points to date, while the Chiefs struggle to 24th. Rush defense stats for the Chiefs are curious. Nobody runs much against the Chiefs because they are usually playing catch-up. Last week the Raiders put up 155 yards, more than 70 over the Chiefs' average allowed. The Chiefs are 31st in defending the red zone at this moment. |
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10-16-22 | 49ers -4 v. Falcons | Top | 14-28 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 58 m | Show |
The 49ers meet the run-happy Atlanta Falcons at home in week 6. The Falcons run more than just about anyone and have had some success this season. They are 4th in rushing yards, 8th in yards/attempt and 4th in rushing first downs. They'd better be good as it is the only game in town. The Falcons' pass attack is minimal; 30th in yards and completion %, with a 78 average passer rating. Mariota has been sacked 12 times, 5 last week alone, with as many picks as TDs to date. |
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10-13-22 | Washington Commanders v. Bears +1.5 | Top | 12-7 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 42 m | Show |
Will it be one step forward and two steps back, or has Fields made a legitimate step as a developing QB? The Bears have been a run-first offense to date, but Fields had his first good start of the season vs the Vikings, with personal highs in passing yards, completion %, and a passer rating of 118. He also ran successfully. The Bears’ passing offense until last week left much to be desired. The run game was limited last week but has been a strength, fifth in the league in yards to date, with Herbert, Montgomery and Fields all as viable options. The Commanders’ offense is almost entirely about the pass; their run game is virtual nonexistent, which is a shame as the Bears struggle vs the run. Wentz threw for a ton of yards against the Titans last week, but results have been mixed in other games. He has been sacked 20 times this season and has thrown 6 interceptions to date, with just an 86 average passer rating. The Commanders’ defense is middle of the pack to date against the run, and poor against the pass. The two teams are roughly equal in QB pressure, although the Commanders have more sacks. Washington doesn’t force very many turnovers, with just 1 interception to date. Other than last week against Cousins, the Bears’ pass offense has been impressive; 5 interceptions to date, 9th in pass yards allowed while limiting opposing passers to an 82 passer rating this season. No one expected much of the Bears this year. They are undefeated at home, and for them it is definitely a case of the glass half full so far. More was expected of the Commanders, and there is turmoil around Wentz’s play in particular. Heads could roll if the Commanders lose this game. I am on the side of the young never-say-die Bears this week. Look for another home victory on TNF. 9*! |
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10-10-22 | Raiders v. Chiefs -7 | Top | 29-30 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
Based on past results, a win should be in cards for the Chiefs today. Kansas City's offense is a different beast this year; equally competent, but much more time-consuming, with more short targets for Mahomes, and a well developed running game. The Chiefs have been great in the red zone, and with the exception of last week, Mahomes has had solid protection. Even against that tough Buccaneers pass offense, Mahomes was a wizard in avoidance, and had great success. At home at Arrowhead, and against another AFC West opponent, I like their chances. On defense, they have been great against the run, which is important against a Raiders' team who are having good success on the ground. The KC pass defense has given up yards, a ton of them facing Brady last week, but they have managed solid passer pressure, and are 7th in sacks, against a Raiders' O-line with mixed success. |
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10-09-22 | Eagles -5 v. Cardinals | Top | 20-17 | Loss | -110 | 78 h 6 m | Show |
The Eagles, looking for 5-0, are on the road facing the Cardinals. Murray and the Cardinals looked better in Week four, but face MUCH stiffer competition this week. The Cardinals losing 3 starters from their O-line to injury against the league’s toughest pass rush is hardly ideal. The Eagles are better in almost every offensive and defensive category when compared to the Cardinals, and any categories where the Eagles showed weakness (as in Week one points allowed) they have addressed. They have controlled play in their games, are very good in the Red zone on both sides of the ball, and have been adaptable. Facing a tough pass rush last week, the Eagles produced monster yardage with the run game. The most telling category for me is quarterback pressure. The Eagles, as noted, are first in sacks, and the Cardinals are 32nd. Allowing Hurts and Philadelphia’s very fine pass offense that kind of freedom is very dangerous. Against a stout Eagles defense, I don’t see Murray or the Arizona run offense having a comfortable game. Philadelphia at 6-0 seems like a distinct possibility. Take the Eagles to win and cover. |
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10-09-22 | Cowboys +5.5 v. Rams | Top | 22-10 | Win | 100 | 15 h 19 m | Show |
The 3-1 Cowboys face the 2-2 Rams in LA, with the usual huge hooplah surrounding these two teams. Dallas is a 5 1/2 point underdog. Is this the week that Stafford starts to show his worth in 2022? Against a very tough Dallas pass defense, I have my doubts. The Rams are 29th in points scored, averaging less than the Cowboys sans Dak. Cooper Rush is 15 points higher in average QB rating, has been sacked just 4 times, and has yet to give up a pick. Stafford has been sacked 16 times and has 6 interceptions to date. Add to that an unwillingness to throw to more than 2 receivers. The Cowboys’ defense struggles against the run, but the Rams hardly have a running game, and are sitting 30th in rushing yards. The Cowboys are top five in QB pressure, and 2nd in fewest yards per pass attempt. It could be more of the same for Stafford this week, after being pushed around by the 49ers last week. The Rams’ O-line has multiple injury issues at the moment. Can the Dallas Cowboys offense produce points against the Rams? First off, they may not need that many. They have solid options at running back with Pollard and Elliott, averaging over 100yds a game. Rush now has a few games under his bet and has shown marked improvement. He threw for 223 yards and a 107 QB rating last week, not bad for a back up. There are flaws in this version of the Rams, and injuries aren’t helping. I am on the Cowboys and the Cowboys’ defense on Sunday. Take them at +5.5, although an outright win would not surprise me. 9*! |
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10-06-22 | Colts v. Broncos -2.5 | Top | 12-9 | Loss | -130 | 30 h 43 m | Show |
The 30th and 31st-best scoring offenses meet for the fifth week of Thursday Night Football. Injuries have compromised both teams' running games, Wilson is sore, and the Colts defense has take a pair of hits. Is Ryan starting to look more comfortable? He was better last week, but that was against arguably the worst team in pass defense. The Colts' offensive line has struggled and could be worse this week. Ryan has been sacked at the league maximum, with five interceptions and a ton of fumbles to date. The Broncos have been tough on passers; 5th in pass yards allowed, 2nd in passing TDs allowed, and with strong QB pressure, 6th in sacks. Their rush defense broke down inexplicably last week, but the Colts' rush attack has been surprisingly unimpressive to date, and now is missing Taylor. Wilson is a trooper, and looked much better last week, finishing with a very high passer rating. The Colts are not such a threat to pressure Wilson, and he is also far more mobile than Ryan. The Broncos at least have a plan B for a rush attack, and if anyone should be worried about fumbles, it is the Colts. A line of -3 is available for Denver, and anything under that is a bonus. I am on the Broncos to bounce back, win and cover. |
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10-02-22 | Washington Commanders v. Cowboys -3 | Top | 10-25 | Win | 100 | 36 h 29 m | Show |
The Commanders, everyone’s latest whipping boys take on the Cowboys, already damned and redeemed this season. The Cowboys will likely start Cooper Rush again. Rush has been competent, if not at all spectacular, well protected by the Cowboys’ O-line, and has great receivers, including a returning Michael Gallup. Wentz has been a sitting duck behind an ineffective Washington O-line. Sacked as often as Burrows, no one has faced more QB pressure or the blitz than Wentz. Tough conditions to excel under. Sacked 9 times last week, the Commanders’ passing yards dropped by 100 yards from week two. Facing the Cowboys’ top of the line pass defense, it will likely be another long day for Wentz. Adding an indifferent run game, averaging just 86 yards a game, doesn’t aid the overall Commanders’ offense. The Dallas run defense has not been as effective, allowing 130+ yds an attempt and nearly 5 yds per carry. The Giants ran for 167 yards last week. The overall defense has been very effective, limiting teams to just 17+ points a game to date. The Cowboys have a pair of good running backs and a top 11 run game. The Commanders’ defense have not handled the run nor the pass well to date. Look for a good situation for Pollard and Elliott. It should also be Rush’s best opportunity for a breakthrough week. I see the Cowboys seriously limiting Wentz and the Commander’s offense, and scoring enough to both win and cover on Sunday. |
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10-02-22 | Browns v. Falcons | Top | 20-23 | Loss | -118 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
The Browns, a small favorite, face the 1-2 Falcons at home in week 4. Brissett has looked pretty sharp as a stand-in, with a healthy 10th rated QB ranking and a solid performance last week. He had 2 Tds, 0 interceptions and a 109 passer rating in week 3, not to mention a 74% completion rate in his last two games. Then there is Chubb, and don’t forget about Hunt, making a very tough 1-2 punch on the top running game in the league. The Browns’ offense have been the best in the league in time of possession, and they don’t turn the ball over very often. The Falcons have been turnover-prone to date. The Falcons have put up almost as many points as the Browns. Mariota had a solid game in week three, and has also run the ball well, but has been sacked more than average, and has already thrown 3 picks. The Falcons’ Patterson put up huge numbers on the run last week, and has been a surprise standout so far, but is questionable with a knee injury for week four. Other than Mariota, Patterson IS the Falcons running game. He is a huge loss if his play is compromised. All eyes were on the Browns’ defense after week two’s catastrophic ending. They played much better in week three, and have been tough against the run, although were a bit sloppy last week. They have also been tough on opposing passers, although injuries will play a role in that regard this Sunday. The Falcons defense is one of the worst in the league in a number of defensive categories, including points, total yards, and passing yards. They are just mid-pack in rushing categories, and while they are solid in QB pressure, the Browns’ O-line has protected Brissett well. Look for another solid game from Brissett, and the Browns’ rush game to again dominate. If Patterson is compromised, things could go badly for the Falcons. Take the Browns to win. |
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09-29-22 | Dolphins +4 v. Bengals | Top | 15-27 | Loss | -120 | 19 h 25 m | Show |
Thursday night Football week 4 is a tough call, especially considering the question marks around Tua and a number of other Dolphins. Both teams are pass-centric to the extreme. The Dolphins are 31st in rush offense. The Bengals have a solid RB in Mixon but he just hasn’t been used as much as might be expected. The Dolphins’ defense has been top ten vs the run, while the Bengals rush defense has struggled and could be exploited. Tua, if available, has excelled this year and has largely been well protected. The Dolphins have great receivers, and when healthy should compete with any team. Burrow has been pressured and sacked on far too many occasions to date. The Bengals won’t have as easy a time of it this week as they did vs the Jets. I expect Miami to take it to Burrow, and all of that pressure comes at a price. The Dolphins defense came up big on numerous occasions vs the Bills. I expect a big game from them. I am not confident that the Bengals are out of the woods yet or that their offensive line can stand up to Miami. Burrow better have his dancing shoes on. Expect a close game but take the Dolphins to cover. 9*! |
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09-26-22 | Cowboys +1 v. Giants | Top | 23-16 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
The 1-1 Cowboys face off with the 2-0 Giants in a highly touted MNF game. Sorry Giants, but I am not sure that 3-0 is a real possibility. First off, I am not sold on Jones nor the Giants ability to protect him on Monday. Jones was well under 200 yds passing, with very short yds/comp and was sacked multiple time. This against 2 relatively poor pass attacks. The Cowboys’ pass defense has been formidable, top 5 in most categories, and a passer nightmare in both games. The Giants also saw the run game (Barkley) fall off significantly in week two after a fine and much publicized effort in Week one against a weak defense. The Cowboys’ rush defense was much better in week two, holding Mixon and the Bengals to 89 yards. On defense the Giants have not really impressed. The run defense struggled against the Titans as expected but allowed nearly 120 yds against Carolina. They are 30th in yards per completion, again vs. two sub-par passers. Perhaps the biggest question in this game surrounds the Dallas offense after the loss of Prescott. The Cowboys have a very good two pronged running attack. Rush threw for more yards and had a higher passer rating than Jones in week two. He has been well protected and has brilliant targets available. Even with injury returns, the Giants will likely struggle to get to Rush this week. The rest of the Dallas team will have Rush in about in as good a position to succeed as could be hoped for. The Giants are a small favorite. Take the Cowboys to steal this one on the road. |
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09-25-22 | Falcons +1 v. Seahawks | Top | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 4 h 49 m | Show |
The Falcons have held their own against 2 tough opponents, scoring 26 and 27 points and covering in both games. They have a solid rush offense to date, and Mariota has put them in a position to win both games. The 1-1 Seahawks were lucky to win their first game and lost badly last week. They are close to the bottom in many offensive categories, including time of possession and points scored. They have no run game to speak of. Geno Smith has been accurate but unable to generate points or yards. |
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09-25-22 | Ravens -2 v. Patriots | Top | 37-26 | Win | 100 | 25 h 22 m | Show |
It was just the one quarter... Like the old joke, the Ravens’ 4th quarter soured a fine game from Lamar Jackson. And yes, the Patriots’ won last week, but against a Steelers team with not much of an offense. The Patriots do not have the receivers, nor can Jones run and gun with Jackson. Not to mention, the Ravens blitz and Jones is very susceptible. Both teams have been solid vs. the run, but NE hasn’t faced a QB who can scramble like Jackson. The Ravens lack of rushing offense, other than Jackson, is a concern, but that may change today. New England does have two solid running backs. Jackson’s QB rating is right up there, Jones is 18th. Jackson has thrown just 1 interception; Jones 2. Neither passer was sacked last game. NE may be missing their top receiver in this game, a situation they can ill afford. I am wagering on the Ravens this week and expect them to bounce back from their ugly loss in week two. I also expect the Ravens' defense to be on their very best behavior and make the necessary adjustments, and had success backing the Browns' defense to respond this week. Jones has yet to prove himself this year; Jackson will be the game breaker. The line has dropped below a field goal. Jump on the Ravens to win and cover. |
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09-25-22 | Chiefs -5.5 v. Colts | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 26 m | Show |
The 2-0 Chiefs face a struggling Colts team in Indianapolis on Sunday. The Colts game in week two could hardly have gone worse, but the line has drifted in the Colts’ favor. I am unsure why. KC and Patrick Mahomes have looked very good in their opening two games. Mahomes has adapted comfortably to his new circumstances, and we are seeing some timely running from this pass-centric offense. Mahomes has had great protection, hasn’t thrown an interception, and has a monster QB rating. The Colts’ offense has been a shambles, and were shut out last week. Taylor only carried the ball 9 times, which is incomprehensible. Ryan does not look settled, and has been very poor under pressure, of which there has been lots as the Colts’ O-line has struggled. Ryan threw 3 interceptions, was sacked multiple times, and ended with a miserable 34 passer rating. He may benefit from the return of a quality target, but that is still an unknown. Kc did not defend well vs the pass last week but faced a much tougher opponent in the Chargers. They have been more successful applying pressure to the passer than the Colts, but haven’t faced a top running back like Taylor this year, so will need to work to contain him. The Colts would have to make a huge adjustment to come within a TD of the Chiefs and there really is no sign of that in week three. To add to their problems, the Colts will miss a pair of key people on defense this week. I am on KC to win and cover on the road on Sunday. |
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09-25-22 | Eagles -6 v. Washington Commanders | Top | 24-8 | Win | 100 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
The Eagles collectively improved from week 1, and manhandled the Vikings in a complete game winning effort. Hurts looked poised and produced in the air and, of course, on the ground. The Eagles’ running game is on fire with Sanders averaging 88 yds a game and 5.9 yds/carry. Hurts has “chipped in” with 147 yards to date, ahead of all passers. On defense, they limited the Vikings’ run game to 62 yds and all but shut down the highly touted Jefferson in the air. The Vikings’ offense was on the field less than 40% of the time. The Commanders lost to Detroit, but Wentz made it interesting in the second half. He has thrown for over 300 yards in the first two games, but also had 3 interceptions and was sacked 6 times to date. Wentz had better be good as Washington has had no appreciable running game to date. The Commanders’ defense has struggled against the run, at or near the bottom in yds and yds/carry, and giving up 191 yards to the Lions last week. They’ve also given up considerably more yards in the air than the Eagles. I am big on the Eagles this year, but was concerned with their defensive play in Week one. Week two showed real improvement against a possible play-off team. There is much talk about a revenge game for Wentz this week. That sentiment goes both ways as Russell Wilson found out in his first game back in Seattle. Take the Eagles to win and cover. 9*! |
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09-22-22 | Steelers v. Browns -4.5 | Top | 17-29 | Win | 100 | 26 h 41 m | Show |
Thursday Night Football brings you an odd match-up this week featuring a team that can’t score vs a team the apparently can’t defend. We have heard about the Browns’ defensive debacle endlessly, but there were high points in that game for the Browns. Jacoby Brissett looked pretty good, and significantly better than the previous week. He was accurate, threw for 221 yds, had a passer rating of 98.5, and was protected well by the Browns’ O line. The Browns’ rush attack was overpowering, and is first in the league, with 184 yds last week and a potent two pronged attack from Chubb and Hunt. The Steelers have yet to face a good running team, but are still 23rd in yards allowed. They are also 30th in passing yards allowed, still missing Watt, and had zero sacks last week. The Browns are missing key people on defense, which will make a difference, but less so against the Steelers. Trubisky has not been effective, and if anything was worse last week. He is 28th in passing yards, and 26th in QB rating. He was sacked three times last week and has not looked good handling pressure. The Steelers have not mounted a real run game yet, which leads one to wonder what have they been doing on offense? They haven’t had the ball much is the correct response, and are 30th in offensive time of possession. I expect Cleveland to run up some points, and the defense to be on their best behavior, especially at home. Take the Browns to win and cover. |
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09-19-22 | Vikings +2.5 v. Eagles | Top | 7-24 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 16 m | Show |
The Vikings off a hug win against the Packers, looked solid on both offense and defense. Admittedly this was not a vintage game from Rogers, but give the Vikings some credit; they sacked him 4 times, and held Rogers to a 74.7 QB rating. On offense, Cousins, Jefferson, and Cook all looked terrific. Cousins was accurate, and ran up 269 passing yds with 2 TDs and a 118 QB rating. The Eagles put up a bunch of points but were hardly in control against a team much weaker than the Vikings. Hurts struggled in the air but was a force on the ground. The Eagles’ run game is a force to be reckoned with, and it isn’t just Hurts. The Eagles have a very good offensive line, and a solid running back in Sanders. The Eagles cannot afford to expose Hurts to the same degree very often. The Eagles’ defense was a concern. They were just OK vs. Gough and the pass, but were very poor vs. the run. As talented as it is the defense is, did not look composed or effective. Can they improve significantly in a week? It seems a tall order. I like the Eagles this year, but just not yet. Take the Vikings to cover. |
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09-15-22 | Chargers v. Chiefs -3.5 | Top | 24-27 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 48 m | Show |
It is the Chargers and the Chiefs in a barn burner of a match-up on TNF. Mahomes and the Chiefs overpowered the Cardinals over 3 quarters, then coasted home while resting starters, which is significant considering the quick turn-around in Week Two. The Chargers prevailed in a much closer match-up vs the Raiders, and were all out until the last series. |
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09-12-22 | Broncos -6.5 v. Seahawks | Top | 16-17 | Loss | -115 | 21 h 21 m | Show |
For the Broncos, it is kind of like starting school with the brand new outfit; new QB, new coach and new plan for the offense. Same old defense, which is a good thing. Rated well into the top 10, the Broncos’ defense allowed the third lowest points last year. They were particularly good against the pass, and in the red zone, but look for a new emphasis on bringing pressure to quarterbacks this year. The Broncos on offense have a powerful rushing duo in Williams and Gordon, and fine receivers. What remains to be seen is how much of an addition Wilson can be to take the Broncos to the next step and how quickly he can do it. Much is made in the media about the Seahawks and the return of Wilson. It will be very surprising if the Seahawks thrive rather than flounder this year, and the Broncos will be a very tough opening match. As much as the Seahawks know Russell Wilson, Wilson the playmaker, also knows the Seahawks. Emotions aside, this might be the very best place for Wilson and the Broncos to start. On offense, Seattle hopes that RB force Penny will continue as he finished last year. It is eight years since Geno Smith played as a starting quarterback, so no great expectations there. Smith did not thrive under pressure last year, and while still has some very fine targets, he is a big step back on QB for the Seahawks this year. Look for the tough Broncos defense to hold things together early and pressure Smith, and possibly more of a running game early from the Broncos. Wilson knows why he is there, is a consummate professional and competitor, and WILL establish a pass attack. Projected scores for this match vary wildly from a grudge win by a vengeful Seattle squad to a Broncos blowout. I expect something in the middle. Take Denver to win and cover. 9*! |
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09-11-22 | Chiefs -6 v. Cardinals | Top | 44-21 | Win | 100 | 22 h 54 m | Show |
What to think of the Cardinals this year? The Cardinals didn't make a ton of changes in the off season They face a tough early schedule, and there is definitely friction around Kyler Murray. The Cardinals have a mediocre offensive line and will be missing Hopkins for the first six games as well as 2 other key targets injured or questionable.. Their day one opponent probably couldn't be worse. Mahomes and the Chiefs don't fail on season openers, and are projected to be in the elite in the league again this year. While they lost Hill, they still have Kelce, and have added key receivers for a new look KC pass attack. One thing that hasn't changed is the O-line, and that is a good thing. It served Mahomes very well last year. The Cardinals started last season as a very good defensive team, but that changed by the end of the season. The lost some key people on defense and haven't appeared to replace them. The Cardinals have a pretty serious injury bill at the moment. They are not especially good vs the run, so we might just see more running game from the Chiefs on Sunday. Mahomes has something to prove after a difficult (for him) year in 2021. He has by all reports, prepared very well, and the KC offense looked good in preseason. Take the Chiefs to win and cover on Sunday. 9*! |
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09-11-22 | Eagles -4.5 v. Lions | Top | 38-35 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 16 m | Show |
Have the Eagles truly landed? Well, I am on Hurts and the Eagles until I see otherwise. The Eagles have done much to bolster the team in the off season. AJ Brown might not even be the most significant addition as they have significantly added to the defense through free agency and the draft. Hurts needs to take that step forward this season and the Eagles brain trust has put him in the best possible position to make that step. The Eagles now have a trio of top targets for Hurts, a very strong O-line and a dominant run game to boot. Did I mention a top 5 or 6 defense? Run is a bit of a dirty word for the Lions. They don't have an established run game, and they likely wont defend the run much better than last year. Geoff, like Hurts, needs to make the next step, but the Lions, while improved, don't have the personnel to fully support him. Their offensive line was expected to be a bright spot this year, but the injury bug has struck already. While it likely won't be the rout we say last year, I expect the Eagles to win and cover. |
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09-08-22 | Bills -2 v. Rams | Top | 31-10 | Win | 100 | 45 h 28 m | Show |
The Bills face the Rams on the road in what is touted as a possible prequel to this year's Super Bowl. So what have these teams done lately? The Bills who were solid on both sides of the ball, upgraded on defense by adding Von Miller and others to an already impressive and well run defense. What did the Rams do? certainly, they lost more than they gained.The Rams had their issues on defense last year, especially early in the season and were never much better than average over the season. I am not convinced that the Rams won't struggle early again. There is no doubting Stafford's abilities, but he doesn't come without a down side. He threw more interceptions than any one last year, and he doesn't exactly spread the ball around. He gets sacked a not inconsiderable number of times, and there are still some questions around his elbow. Allen and his running ability, and Von Miller, who will likely be in Stafford's face a lot on Thursday ,will be the difference-makers in this game. The Bills are hungrier and with more to prove. On the road or no, take the Bills to win and cover. 9*! |
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02-13-22 | Rams v. Bengals +4.5 | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 194 h 10 m | Show |
Rams/Bengals Burrow and Stafford are a given; two dominant passers peaking at the right time, both with superlative targets. Lets look at the defenses, which is where this game will be decided. There are many recent positive improvements for the Rams defense; yards against and 3rd down conversions against are down, and they have been dominant in controlling time of possession. They have been tough on quarterbacks, but they are still only 21st in passing yards allowed. Burrow has been remarkably effective in spite of horrible O-line performance this season. I think the Rams defense will cramp his style but no one has been able to shut him down lately. Stafford may have his hands full as well. The Bengals defense is tough against the run but has been doing the job against the pass as well. They had 4 sacks against Mahomes last week, and pretty well shut down the Chiefs’ fierce pass attack in the second half last time out. They have only given up an average of 19 points a game in their last three against tough competition. The Rams are favored but the Bengals have been defying odds all season. This game will be close likely decided by a single field goal. Take the Bengals to surprise and cover once again. |
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01-30-22 | Bengals +7.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 55 h 30 m | Show |
The odds have reached a point where Cincinnati seems like a good option. It is a concern that the Chiefs can’t hold an opposing offense, in particular a passing offense, at bay. Burrow and Mahomes have been equally dynamic of late. Burrow will not face the kind of pressure he has endured in either of the last two weeks. The Chiefs have one of the worst defenses in terms of sacks in the league. The Bengals have already beaten the Chiefs in a meaningful game within the last 4 weeks, with great success in the air. A blowout by the Chiefs is highly unlikely. If this game goes as expected, it will likely be decided on one scoring drive or in overtime. I can see the Chiefs up to one touchdown, but after that, I am banking on the Bengals. |
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01-23-22 | Bills +2.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 36-42 | Loss | -115 | 28 h 40 m | Show |
Bills face the Chiefs on Divisional game day. Let us get to the point, and make this short but sweet. Bills will win, and they will have their defense to thank. Two super-hot QBs face off, both in prime form. Mahomes has slightly better passing stats, but Allen is better protected and more of a running threat. I get that Mahomes can be a game changer, but Allen is no slouch in that department either. Give a slight nod to the Chiefs’ passing offense, if you will, but after than it is all about the Bills. They are better on both sides of the ball in the red zone, are 6th on avg. in the major rushing categories, and far superior on defense. There was a stretch when the Chiefs held the opposition to under two touchdowns on defense, but that has not been the case lately. The Bills have the best defense against the run, and are first in too many categories to list here. The Bills’ O-line has been terrific this year, and their defense has savaged opposing Qbs at an average of 5+ over the last three games. I really don't see Kansas City matching up well here. Yes, the Chiefs are at home this week but the Bills are playing like a team on a mission right now. Bills to cover, and very likely win. |
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01-22-22 | Bengals v. Titans -3 | Top | 19-16 | Loss | -110 | 81 h 33 m | Show |
The high-flying Bengals, led by star QB Joe Burrow, face a formidable ground-dwelling Titans team that likely features the return of the King, Derrick Henry. Burrow has put up the big numbers in spite of being sacked more than just about any QB in the league. The Titans’ defense sit 25th in passing yards given up, however they are much better in points allowed in the air (7th) and passing first downs. They will get to Burrow, but that hasn’t seemed to matter to his performance. The Bengals’ run defense, 7th for the season, has struggled lately, giving up 150+ yards on average in their last three games. While this game could be close, I favor the Titans for several reasons. Running under all of the hype around the return of Henry, Tannehill has put together some good outings in his last games. The Bengals’ pass defense is well below average and their defensive line is seriously compromised by injuries. The Titans will have more of a flexible offense on Saturday, and have had very good success in the red zone. The Bengals have a very solid running back in Joe Mixon, but don’t use him much and the Titans’ run defense is very very tough. The Titans will struggle to contain Burrow and Co., but they don’t give up a lot of points and are 4th in red-zone defense. The Titans are healthy and well rested. The best defense against Burrow is to keep him off the field. I think the Titans will establish a run game against the Bengals and slow this game down. A healthy Henry would just be the icing on the cake. Look for the Titans to win and cover. |
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01-17-22 | Cardinals v. Rams -3.5 | Top | 11-34 | Win | 100 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
The Cardinals have been on a downward trend, losing 4 of 5, scoring less points and allowing considerably more over the last month. There is no defensive category where they have shown anything but a slide. Things are not much better on offense with far less passing yards, and far poorer results in the red zone. That is a lot of ship to right coming into the wildcard weekend. They are a good road team and beat the Cowboys on the road, but lets not forget that they lost badly on the road to the Lions. The Rams have won 4 of 5, losing narrowly to the 49ers last week. Well, don’t they always lose to the 49ers? Much has been and should be made of Stafford’s ability to turn the ball over. He faced formidable pressure from the 49ers’ defense and was sacked 5 times. The Cardinals will not exert that kind of pressure on Stafford this week. The Rams’ defense are tough on the run, and very good at getting to the quarterback. They give up yards against the pass, but not necessarily points. They are much better in the red zone of late. They beat Arizona by 7 last time out. I don’t think it will be much different this week. The Rams have the stars who can excel, Stafford being one of them. This is a critical game for some very big Rams reputations. I am wagering for LA to step up here. Take the Rams to win and cover. |
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01-16-22 | Steelers v. Chiefs -11.5 | Top | 21-42 | Win | 100 | 21 h 53 m | Show |
The Chiefs crushed the Steelers just three weeks ago, winning by 26. The Steelers squeaked into the playoffs by the slimmest of margins, and all the talk about no pressure on the Steelers in this game doesn’t hide the fact that the Chiefs are a much better team with a recent history of playoff success. The Steelers’ claim to fame is their pass defense, in particular Qb pressure, pass yards allowed and yards per attempt. That said, it is odd that against the good pass-first offenses they have played (Bengals, Chiefs, Chargers and Vikings) , all were losses and some by wide margins. As far as sacks go, the Chiefs are third in the league in protecting their QB, allowing just 1 sack per week over their last three games. TJ Watt was held in control in their last meeting, a rare occasion. The Steelers are dead last against the run. Even though the Chiefs are best known as a pass-first offense, they have far greater balance this year and can run the ball very effectively. Mahomes will do whatever is needed under the circumstances to win a game. He is still one of the best rushing Qbs in the business. The Chiefs’ defense gives up the eighth least points allowed, which is surprising as there is no one area in which they excel. They are healthy now, and we need to be reminded that they have held 6 of their last 9 opponents to under two Tds. The Steelers just don’t put many points on the board. With a very poor run game and a very average pass offense, I don’t expect them to surprise anyone on Sunday. Take the Chiefs to win and cover. |
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01-15-22 | Patriots v. Bills -4 | Top | 17-47 | Win | 100 | 36 h 31 m | Show |
The Patriots face the Bills for a chance to move on, but looking carefully at the two teams’ last month’s performances, it seems unlikely that they can or will win this game. There has been a significant regression in the Patriots’ defensive performance, especially in the run, an aspect of the game that will likely figure prominently on a very cold day in Buffalo. Points allowed are way up, their ability to pressure QBs has declined, and their red zone defense has declined. This against a Bills team with the third highest points for. For a generally pass-first offense, the Bills have now passed the Patriots in rushing yards and rush yards/attempt. Allen has had excellent protection three weeks in a row. As much as the Patriots’ defense has declined, the Bills’ defensive effort has soared. First in points allowed, dominant in all pass defense categories, they have also shown huge improvement in rush defense. The Bills are very healthy; not so the Patriots, with numerous starters banged up. The Bills are on a roll and Allen is in good form. There are some questions around Patriots’ QB Jones lately, and the rookie QB faces a very tough defense in cold play-off conditions. Belichick or no, the Bills will win and cover.. |
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01-15-22 | Raiders v. Bengals -5 | Top | 19-26 | Win | 100 | 55 h 59 m | Show |
The Raiders, off an inspiring win last week, squeaked into the playoffs, and now face a rested Bengals team. The pass-first Bengals offense comes in with Burrow at his peak, some solid receiving options, and a top 5 running back, a dual threat, who they probably under-use on the ground. Burrow is accurate, explosive and does not turn the ball over. The only issue with Burrow is the lack of protection he gets. The Bengals defense is middle of the pack. Their strengths are against the run, they give up yards but not necessarily points against the pass, and they can be effective in pressuring the QB. They have a definite advantage in turnovers, both on offense and defense. The Raiders have presented a much more balanced attack in their last few games and it has been working for them. Carr might be playing second to Burrow, but his stats speak for themselves. The Raiders have relied much more on their running game lately, and have a good running back, also a twin threat, in Jacobs. On defense, the Raiders have given up a ton of points this season, but that has declined outside of last week. They have tightened up against the run, but do struggle against a strong pass-first offense such as the Bengals. The Raiders’ red zone defense is also an issue. The Bengals beat the Raiders handily on the road earlier in the season. Cincinnati hasn’t won a playoff game in a very long time, so they are due. The Raiders did not have the benefit of a week off, and are on the road. I am wagering that the Bengals, a real offensive powerhouse in top form, to outscore the Raiders. Cincinnati to win and cover. |
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01-09-22 | Saints -4 v. Falcons | Top | 30-20 | Win | 100 | 150 h 44 m | Show |
The Saints are still in the playoff picture and the Falcons aren’t. All the talk of the Falcons as spoilers is nothing like the impetus of still playing for the post season. This and the Saints’ absolutely dominant defense, arguably the best against the run and hugely improved vs the pass of late, will push the Saints past the Falcons. As much as the Saints defense has improved, the Falcons’ defense has regressed. They are bottom 6 in points allowed, red zone defense, and 32nd and slipping in Qb sacks. They allowed 175 yards rushing over their last three games. Their offense is also trending down, averaging just 16 points scored over their last three games. Ryan has been sacked 37 times, including 5 last week. Will the Saints cover? They bumped their points-for up to 18 last week. Hill should have plenty of protection, and did get something going with two of his receivers, Kamara and Callaway. He is a big threat to run and the Falcons don’t fare well against a QB who can run. The Saints are healthier than they have been, and have a solid rush attack, possibly including Ingram as well as Kamara. While I am not expecting a blow-out, I am wagering on the Saints to cover as well as win. |
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01-09-22 | Titans -10 v. Texans | Top | 28-25 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 58 m | Show |
The Titans face the Texans in a key game for their play off hopes. They are playing for a bye week, and with their “ultra RB’ Henry near a return, it would be very significant win. The Titans will leave nothing to chance with the memory of a very poor effort against the Texans still strong. The Titans defense was absolutely formidable last week, holding Miami to 3 points. They are healthier, with all defensive categories markedly improved over the last three weeks. The Texans’ defense is particularly poor vs. the run; last in yards allowed and 2nd last in rush tds allowed. This kind of performance is obviously a very poor match with the Titans’ strengths. Even without Henry, the Titans’ run-first offense has been taking great strides, averaging 163 yards a game in their last three starts. Tannehill will remember his last game vs Houston as he was sacked 7 times. The Texans don’t generally apply that much pressure. Look for the Tennessee O-line to do a better job of protection, with Tannehill only throwing as needed. Rookie David Mills appears to be settling in with the Texans, but will likely face intense pressure on game day. I am wary of a wide spreads in week 18, but I think the Titans will be all in until the end on this one. Who knows what kind of effort to expect from the Texans? I am confident that the Titans will win and cover on Sunday. |
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01-02-22 | Panthers v. Saints -6.5 | Top | 10-18 | Win | 100 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
Comparing a team’s stats in their last few games to their seasons’ average can be informing. Looking at the Panthers’ defensive numbers, I’d say they’ve already broken out the golf clubs. The Panthers’ rush defense has not been up to much all season, but the pass defense was solid. In their past few games, their effectiveness has plummeted, which is good new for the Saints. The Saints have a running game with Kamara back and Hill at QB, but they need all the help they can get on pass offense. This will be as complete a lineup as the Saints have had in some time, so it will be interesting to see if they can put up more than 14 points, which is what they have averaged lately. The Saints defense has yet to stumble this year; top of the heap in red zone defense, great rushing defense and improving pass defense. Carolina doesn’t put up many points on the board, and again, that number has also tanked lately. The QB position has been an adventure, and their rushing yards are in decline. This is a rare opportunity for the Saints to put some points on the board, and help out their dwindling chances for a wild card spot. It is really a meaningless game for the Panthers other than for draft position, and an away game at that. I believe the Saints formidable defense will stymie the Panthers’ suspect offense. Take the Saints to win and cover. |
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01-02-22 | Raiders v. Colts -6.5 | Top | 23-20 | Loss | -127 | 47 h 53 m | Show |
The Raiders face the Colts in a crucial game with both teams hit with some severity by covid. QB Wentz could be out for the Colts, which is not quite such a loss in the Colts’ run-first offense. Wentz was solid last week, but many weeks Wentz is not as prominent. Untested rookie Sam Ehlinger will likely replace him. The Colts’ O line has protected their passer effectively this year. One wrinkle in the mix is that Ehlinger is much more of a run threat than Wentz. Can the Colts still win and cover? No one has stopped Jonathon Taylor, and while Vegas has shown improvement in rush defense, they have not faced anyone like him. Of note, the Raiders are the very worst red-zone defenders in the NFL. The Raiders’ pass defense has been solid in yards allowed but they do allow more than their share of points, they don’t pressure Qbs especially well, and they don’t create many turnovers. The Colts defense has shown real improvement, giving up more than 17 points only once in their last 6 games, while facing very stiff competition. The Raiders are a pass-first offense, with Derek Carr the focus. Carr is banged up, which might account for the significant drop in passing yards over the last few games. The Raiders will again be missing Waller again this week. The Colts don’t pressure Qbs so much which is good because the Raiders are middle of the road in protecting Carr. The Colts are very adept at creating turnovers, while the Raiders give up the ball a lot. Much has been made of the loss of Wentz, but the Raiders are the more depleted of the two teams. The Colts have been terrific against the spread this year, and overpowering of late. I’m betting on the Colts to again win and cover. |
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01-02-22 | Eagles -3 v. Washington Football Team | Top | 20-16 | Win | 100 | 39 h 55 m | Show |
There is very little good news on the injury front for a very disrupted WFT. Heinicke is beaten up and in the dog house, and top running back Gibson is out. This is a blow for a team struggling to put meat on the table (so to speak). The Football Team is up against a surging Eagles team, winners of 5 of 6 games, and needing a win to solidify their playoff hopes. The Eagles are top in the NFL with the run. Howard is questionable, but with the other backs and Hurts in the equation, they should be in good form. The Football Team is 8th in the league against the run but very much in freefall lately, allowing over 150 yards rushing in their last three games. Other than QB pressure, Washington is very poor against the pass. While the Eagles don’t rely on their passing game, Hurts has seen his QB stats climb lately. The Football team will have their hands full against an increasingly tough Eagles defense. Only 1 team in the last 8 has run for +100 yards against them, and they are top 10 in all of the pass defense categories other than sacks. They have been very stingy in points allowed, averaging just 15 over the last three games. In “what have you done lately” terms, this game is all Eagles. They beat the Football Team by 10 points 2 weeks ago, and I can’t see that Washington is in any better shape now. Barring a major underestimation by the Eagles, this game should be theirs for the taking. Take Philadelphia to win and cover. |
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12-27-21 | Dolphins -2.5 v. Saints | Top | 20-3 | Win | 100 | 37 h 41 m | Show |
Even after their shutout against the Bucanneers, there is still the Saints' 9 point offense to consider, and that was with their quarterback and some other key pieces who will be missing this week. Now the Saints are down to their 3rd or 4th string QB. A Saints win would make a great Disney feature, but lets face it; "this ain't no movie", as the song goes. The Saints defense has dominant last week, and has been their strong suit all season. The Dolphins allowed 24 points to the Jets, but this was not a result for the Dolphins. In their previous 5 games they allowed an average of around 12 points per game, while reeling off 5 staight wins. Tagovailoa has improved over the course of the season, and has been accurate and well protected of late. The Dolphins have shown dramatic improvement in offense. Here are a pair of stats to compare: Dolphins have scored 28 points on average in their last three games compared to 18 for the Saints. The Dolphins have an 81 scoring % in the red zone over the last two weeks, compared to the Saints’ 28% rate. It appears to have been a doomed season for the Saints. They are depleted once again, and we saw where that got them earlier in the year. Take the Dolphins to win and cover. |
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12-26-21 | Bills v. Patriots -2 | Top | 33-21 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 5 m | Show |
The Bills face New England in a critical game for both teams. The Patriots ran all over the Bills in their last windswept meeting, but weather, with possible snow, may still be a factor this time out. Covid may also be a factor with the Bills especially depleted. After allowing a very uncharacteristic 27 points to the Colts, look for the Patriots’ defense to bounce back this week. Josh Allen is hampered by a foot injury, which may affect his usual mobility. The Patriots’ pass defense is tough on pass offenses, with low yards allowed and good QB pressure stats. The Bills defense is very strong against the pass, but has been run on lately. Other than last week, QB pressure is not their strong point. The New England O line has protected Jones very well lately, while Allen has been sacked with frequency, specially last game. Enter Belichik, New England’s thirteenth man. He and the Patriots are off a loss; two in a row is not a part of the plan. This game could be close, but a hampered Allen, the Bills covid issues, and the Bills’ uneven season sway me towards the Patriots. New England to win and cover. |
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12-21-21 | Seahawks v. Rams -7 | Top | 10-20 | Win | 100 | 2 h 59 m | Show |
It is a tough call on the Seahawks/ Rams game, because of the Covid disruption. The Seahawks defense has shown real improvement lately in points allowed, red zone protection and rushing yards allowed. Their run offense has climbed dramatically, and Russel has looked back in form. How will they fare against the Rams? Much depends on who is playing today so it will be a last minute decision. The Rams are all about pass offense, with Stafford and Cupp front and center. It is not that the Rams never run, but they are 25th in the league at the moment, so winning against the Rams means controlling the pass. The Seahawks are not successful in QB pressure,(29th rated). They are worst in the league in pass yards allowed and there has been no sign of improvement lately. The Rams are not a warm and fuzzy matchup for the Seahakwks defense. |
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12-19-21 | Bengals +3 v. Broncos | Top | 15-10 | Win | 100 | 31 h 37 m | Show |
The Broncos are off a lopsided win, the Bengals off a pair of losses. This is THE game to ante in or fold for both teams, in what will likely be a very close match up. At QB, the young dynamic Burrow gets the nod over Bridgewater, but with a couple of caveats. Burrow has been sacked an astounding 41 times, and has thrown for too many interceptions. Still, he is very cool under fire, and very good against the blitz. Both teams have solid run offenses. The Broncos have been “runnin’ fools” in the last 3 weeks. The Broncos are a run-first offense, and that is unlikely to change on Sunday, which plays to the Bengals’ strength on defense. Forcing Bridgewater to throw will likely be a Bengals focus. Denver’s defense is strong against the pass and great in the red zone. Some teams have run on them and they are only average in QB pressure, which might be a break for Burrow. The Bengals defense does two things very well. They apply pressure to opposing QBs, and as noted are very strong against the run. This game will be close, and likely hinges on turnovers. If the Bengals control their turnovers, they win outright. While the Broncos are solid in ball control, I still like the explosiveness of a Burrow-led Bengals offense. Take the Bengals with the points. |
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12-18-21 | Patriots +2.5 v. Colts | Top | 17-27 | Loss | -110 | 84 h 42 m | Show |
Patriots/Colts The Patriots are 7-0 in recent games. All the wins have one thing in common; their opponents just don’t score enough points to win. Patriots’ QB Mac Jones has shown remarkable poise and improvement in his first year. Off a bye and 3 pass win against the Bills, Jones’ arm will be well rested if nothing else. Lets see if he can shine against an average Colts pass defense. The Colts are on a win one-lose one pattern, but have been piling up and allowing points in a big way, mostly scoring on the back of Jonathon Taylor. Controlling Taylor will be the key for the Patriots. The Patriots have a solid run defense and Belichick has had a week and a half to come up with a plan. The Patriots do give up some rushing yards, but they are best in the league in fewest rushing points allowed. It will not be easy for Colts QB Wentz on Saturday. Wentz has been OK for the Colts and has shown some improvement lately, but he will be up against a very tough Patriots’ pass defense. Over the last three games, NE’s passing yards allowed have dropped from a seasonal average of 195 to 113 yards allowed. They are 9th in sacks, and very solid pressuring the passer. While the Colts have Taylor, the Patriots’ have a trio of good options up against the Colts’ middle of the road run defense. It is hard to bet against the Patriots, but as a slight underdog, it would not be wise. Look for them to reign in Taylor to some degree. If this happens, I don’t see Wentz picking up the slack. Patriots |
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12-12-21 | Bills v. Bucs -3.5 | Top | 27-33 | Win | 102 | 31 h 12 m | Show |
The Bills meet the Bucs in a much awaited matchup. The game features two premier passers and a pair of pass-first offenses, so the outcome depends on how each team defends. Brady and his receivers face the Bills’ top ranked pass defense, but what the Bills don’t do is pressure the quarterback effectively. The Bucs have been very good at protecting Brady, so we can see a situation where Brady, with time, will be throwing against a very good secondary. For Allen the reverse is true. The Bucs have the 20th ranked pass defense, but are very good at pressuring the opposing QB. They are fourth in sacks for the season and had 5 last week. Can the Bucs get to Allen regularly or will he pick them to pieces through the air? A key factor in this game could be defense in the red zone. While the Bucs give up passing yards, they are significantly better than the Bills in defending in the red zone. What about the running game? What running game.. The Bills don’t run much. Even last week in gale force winds, they stuck to the program. It is tough to run against the Bucs; they are 2nd rated in rushing defense. Tampa Bay has viable run options, but it is always option #2. Looking at how successful teams have been against the usually dependable Bills' run defense lately might give the Bucs pause for thought. The Bills have been uneven this year, but good on the road. The Bucs, other than a blip in the beginning of November have maintained a steady ship, and are undefeated at home. Brady and Gronk have owned the Bills. Take Tampa Bay to win and cover. |
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12-05-21 | Giants v. Dolphins -3 | Top | 9-20 | Win | 100 | 100 h 10 m | Show |
Giants/Dolphins With the Dolphins, it is very much “what have you done lately?”The answer is a lot; 4 wins in a row, 4-0-1 ATS, Tagovailoa hitting 80+ completion % and +100 QB rating four times in the last five games for starters. Looking through the stats, the last four games show a dramatic turnaround. The Dolphins’ run defense, 10th on average, has been much better than that recently and has been blitzing very successfully. Even their dismal running game has improved. For the Giants, the outlook is not so rosy. Jones their QB is not likely to play. His replacement Glennon is 6-21 lifetime and has hardly played this season. Last week the Giants’ defense held the Eagles to 7 points but they were only able to score 13. Without Jones, and with an average running game (of which Jones was an active part) up against the tough Dolphins run defense, it will be hard to score points this week. The Dolphins haven’t allowed more than 17 points in five games and have faced better teams than the Giants. Look for the Dolphins to continue in their winning way and cover. |
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11-29-21 | Seahawks v. Washington Football Team +1 | Top | 15-17 | Win | 100 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
It is last call for the Seahawks on Sunday, sporting a 30th and 32nd ranked offense and defense, and the Washington FT on the upswing. Wilson has not been in form since returning, but no matter how he performs on Monday, Seattle has very significant issues standing between them and a win. The Seahawks, missing Carson, and with Collins limited, are without any real options on the run, and the FT handles the rush very well. Washington has a legitimate run game, 10th rated and improving in their last three games. The Seahawks defense has struggled against the run all season. As a backup QB, Heineke has performed much better than expected, particularly in his last two games. He has thrown for 4 TDs against 0 interceptions in those two games. Wilson is still an unknown this week, and he will face a poor but dramatically improving WFT pass defense. The same cannot be said of the Seahawks’ passing defense. They have been bad, (rated 30th) and stayed bad. Neither team protects their QB well, but Seattle really struggles; Wilson has been sacked 7 times in the two games since his return. Wilson has worked miracles before, but the Seahawks aren’t helping his cause. This game is basically a pick’um. I am picking the Washington football team. |
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11-28-21 | Titans v. Patriots -6.5 | Top | 13-36 | Win | 100 | 5 h 54 m | Show |
The Patriots are winning and often by a wide margin, limiting their last 3 opponents to a touchdown or less. The injury-riddled Titans have given up an average of 20 points over their last 4 games. Post-Henry, the Titans rush offense has dropped significantly. Tannehill, without the protection of a premier running game and his three top targets, has been exposed and has seen his sack numbers rise to a whopping 31, along with 12 interceptions. By comparison, rookie Mac Jones has developed well this season, has a higher completion rate, has been sacked less and has 2/3rds the interceptions. His completion rate has been in the 80’s in the last three Patriot games. The Patriots’ running game has found new footage of late, and has been in the NFL top three in their last 3 games. The Titan 5th rated defense are hard to run against for yards, but they are not as effective in run points allowed. The Patriots are far more effective against the pass. Injuries may catch up with the Titans on Sunday. With Henry, Jones and Brown all out, and Tannehill exposed, it is hard to see where their points will come from. If the Patriots maintain their withering defense of the last few games, and Jones continues in good form, the Patriots should win and cover. Patriots |
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10-03-21 | Chiefs -5.5 v. Eagles | Top | 42-30 | Win | 100 | 143 h 50 m | Show |
Kansas City Chiefs @ Philadelphia Eagles For one of the few times in Mahomes' career, the Chiefs have lost two straight games. Although two doesn't seem like much, they've been that dominant with him back there that they've never lost three straight with him at QB. KC also brings in a wicked 7-1 record in thier last 8 games against teams in the NFC. The Eagles haven't been any better than the Chiefs this season. Although they won week 1 with ease, two straight loses bring the, to 1-2 as well. They are brining in an awful 1-5 ATS in thier last 5 games against teams from the AFC. Philly is also 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games. With Mahomes having never lost 3 straight in his professional career, I don't see that happening here against the struggling Eagles. Expect a huge bounce back performance from him, Travis Kelce, Tyrrek Hill and the entire Chiefs crew here today. Take KC. |
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09-26-21 | Seahawks v. Vikings | Top | 17-30 | Loss | -125 | 73 h 30 m | Show |
Seattle Seahawks @ Minnesota Vikings Off a heartbreaking OT loss to Derrick Henry and the Titans, the Seahawks fall to 1-1. Despite losing, Russell Wilson has looked dominant in the first two games of the season. Tyler Lockett has been the main target so far, but I expect DK Metcalf to make some noise here today. Heartbreaking not only can describe the Hawks, but the Vikings have now seen two devastating losses. Week one against the Bengals in OT, and last week they missed a make-able field goal in the final seconds against the Cards to lose by a point. That takes a lot out of a team and I expect them to get jumped on from the opening kickoff. With both teams off a loss, this is basically a revenge game to get back on track. But that missed field goal for the Vikings is going to be too hard to come back from this week against a strong Seattle team. Take Seattle |
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09-19-21 | Chiefs -3.5 v. Ravens | Top | 35-36 | Loss | -108 | 25 h 22 m | Show |
Kansas City Chiefs @ Baltimore Ravens The Chiefs are 1-0 after coming from behind to knock off the Browns 33-29 at home in Week 1. The Browns had a half time lead and a ten-point lead going into the fourth-quarter, but Patrick Mahomes took over and KC now comes to Baltimore sitting at 1-0. The Ravens on the other hand looked bad in their 33-27 OT loss at Las Vegas, giving up a huge lead late to lose in extra time. These teams are loaded with offensive talent. Each struggled defensively in Week 1. Despite being on the road though, I say this one favors KC. The Ravens are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 following a SU loss, while KC is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games after having 350-plus yards of offense in its previous outing. I think Baltimore continues to struggle. Lay the points. |
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02-07-21 | Chiefs -3 v. Bucs | Top | 9-31 | Loss | -108 | 323 h 16 m | Show |
The set-up: I played on the Chiefs in the AFC Conference Championship and I play on the Bucs in the NFC Conference Championship. These teams are similar in many respects, but I think that the Chiefs are the better overall team through all three phases. Better QB and offense. Equal defense and better special teams. Yes, Tom Brady has a plethora of experience at this level, and while they've looked very good to reach this point, team chemistry and this most elite level is in question in my opinion. Not so for Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes and this deep Chiefs offense. The pick: This will truly be a passing of the torch moment for the NFL. I'm not going to break down individual stats, because I'm not basing this pick entirely on stats. As I said, these teams have similar numbers. They're really good in almost every department. Honestly, it wouldn't be difficult to write a convincing argument for either team to win this game straight up, but as I also mentioned the intangibles that KC brings to the table here, and along with Reid, who is a master when he has a week or more to prepare for a game. I repsect Brady and I think the Bucs are for sure the best team in the NFC. The is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Kansas City Chiefs. |
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01-24-21 | Bills v. Chiefs -3 | Top | 24-38 | Win | 100 | 156 h 2 m | Show |
The set-up: Whether Patrick Mahomes plays or not, I think the Chiefs are deep and talented enough to pull off a victory here at home over the Bills. Buffalo is now definitely in unchartered territory. With Josh Allen under center, this Bills team has a shot at competing with any team in the league. Buffalo's weakness this year is definitely on the defensive side of the ball though and I think that'll be its downfall finally here in this difficult road venue. The pick: The Chiefs have had lapses in concentration this year (lost at home to the Raiders), but overall the reason they eclipsed their team season win total for an eighth straight year was because of an improved defense. KC is loaded with offensive and defensive talent and I like Andy Reid to have a masterful plan cooked up here to deal with the potential of Mahomes being sidelined. The game of Football is about more than just one player obviously and in this case, I think that the defending champs still have more than enough pieces in place to pull off another victory and advance to the Super Bowl. I'm laying the points! The is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the KC Chiefs. |
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01-09-21 | Colts +7 v. Bills | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 127 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: The Colts have the offense and the defense to hang with Buffalo. The Bills weakness is their ground game. Their defense wasn't great all year, but it did well down the stretch of the regular season. The Colts finished second in the NFL in stopping the run, so the task for the visiting side will be to get to Josh Allen, who is admittedly having a great year. The pick: The Bills weakness defensively was stopping the run, so expect to see a heavy-dose of Colts' RB Jonathan Taylor, who is as versatile running the ball, as he is catching it. I think experience does matter at this point, so Rivers has a small advantage in that department. I think this one comes right down to the wire and therefore, I'm grabbing the points. This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Indianapolis Colts. |
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01-03-21 | Saints v. Panthers +6 | Top | 33-7 | Loss | -120 | 28 h 40 m | Show |
The set-up: New Orleans is the No. 2 seed in the NFC, one game behind Green Bay, who holds the tie-breaker after beating the Saints earlier in the year. New Orleans is tied with Seattle at 11-4 and it holds the tiebreaker over the Hawks. Carolina won't be in the playoffs, as it's 5-10. The Panthers though relished the role of playing spoiler last week, snapping a three-game slide with a competitive 20-13 win over Washington. The pick: Teddy Bridgewater has one last chance to impress today for the Panthers and he'll try to deal a blow to the Saints playoff positioning and take advantage of a team which will be without its entire starting RB group. I think New Orleans gets caught flat-footed here and I like the home side to deliver. The outright is possible, but grab as many points as you can. This is a 10* GAME OF THE YEAR on the Carolina Panthers. |
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12-28-20 | Bills -6.5 v. Patriots | Top | 38-9 | Win | 100 | 179 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: The Patriots are eliminated. Cam Newton is going to be the only motivated player on the field for New England today. The Patriots have nothing to play for over the last two games, and they can't even really play spoiler here, as Buffalo has already clinched. Instead, I give the Bills the huge edge in being the more "motivated" team in this matchup. Buffalo won the first matchup and after being the "red headed step-child" of the division for so long, and after suffering so many beatdowns at the hands of the Pats over the years, I look for this visiting organization to lay down a can of whoop ass that none of us have witnessed in quite a while. Buffalo is simply the better team in every respect and I don't see it having any sort of letdown in enemy territory today. The pick: It's interesting to note as well that New England is just 1-3-1 ATS in its last five games played in the month of December, while Buffalo is 5-0 ATS in its last five following an ATS victory. With a chance to humiliate the Patriots on their home field, I look for the Bills to do just that! This is a 10* AFC EAST BEST OF THE BEST on the Buffalo Bills. |
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12-26-20 | Dolphins v. Raiders +2.5 | Top | 26-25 | Win | 100 | 131 h 55 m | Show |
The set-up: I'm primarily a situational handicapper and I think this one sets up well for the home side to pull off the minor upset at home this weekend. The Raiders are in "do or die" mode, as a loss here will eliminate them from contention. Miami also needs victories to keep its playoff hopes alive, but I think that's asking a lot of this young team on the road today, especially with a rookie QB. Derek Carr and the Raiders have a capable offense and I expect to see Gruden have his team prepared today. The pick: I'll point out as well that Las Vegas is 7-2 ATS in its last nine home games as an underdog in the +2.5 to +4.5 points range. I like the desperate home side to dig deep and deliver on Saturday night. This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Las Vegas Raiders. |
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12-19-20 | Bills v. Broncos +5.5 | Top | 48-19 | Loss | -110 | 128 h 38 m | Show |
The set-up: Buffalo comes in off three straight wins, but after beating Pittsburgh 26-15 at home last weekend, and with a game at New England on the 28th up next, before its season finale against Miami, I do believe this sets up as a bit of a trap for the visiting side. The pick: The Broncos won't be in the post-season, but they're playing strnog down the stretch. Last weekend they posted a 32-27 road win at Carolina, proving that they're trying to finish off on a positive note. Denver has the ability to affect the playoffs and I think that's a big motivational factor. It also plays with revenge after losing this game 20-2 last season. Buffalo has not played well defensively, allowing 27.6 PPG and I think it'll struggle to contain this hungry home side. The outright is possible, but in the end grab the points. This is a 10* SUPER-SPECIAL on the Denver Broncos. |
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12-17-20 | Chargers v. Raiders -3 | Top | 30-27 | Loss | -106 | 84 h 53 m | Show |
The set-up: This game reminds me a lot of the Cowboys at the Bengals last weekend. Both teams had been ravaged by injury and on and off field issues. Also plenty of COVID related problems as well. I had a play on the Cowboys, as I reckoned they were the much "hungrier" team. I also felt that despite their win/loss record, the Cowboys absolutely had the better talent on the field of play as well in that matchup. And that's almost exactly the case here as well, except I'd argue that the Raiders look a lot better than the Cowboys through all three phases this year and their 7-6 record proves that. The Raiders season is on the line here. This is a "must win" game for Las Vegas, easily it's most important contest of the enitre season. Playing on the short week at home also benefits the Raiders situationally tonight. The pick: LA has nothing to play for here and I expect it to throw in the white towel early (note that it's just 1-6 ATS in its last seven overall.) The public money is all over Las Vegas and this time, I think they're right. Lay the points. This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Las Vegas Raiders. |
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12-06-20 | Browns +5 v. Titans | Top | 41-35 | Win | 100 | 148 h 45 m | Show |
The set-up: These teams are awfully similar on the offensive side of the ball, but Cleveland has the slight advantage defensively. Cleveland comes to town off a 27-25 win at Jacksonville, while Tennessee looks poised for a letdown after its 45-26 road win at Indianpolis. Cleveland's defense gets a huge boost for this game as well, with the expected return of star Myles Garrett. The pick: Tennessee played with revenge last weekend and after that emotional victory, I think a minor setback is immiment at home. Neither team has looked perfect this year, as each has suffered with consistency at times. Cleveland's issues this year came mostly though when leading receiver OBJ was injured and it took a couple of weeks for the offense to adjust. That adjustment period is now over though and this Cleveland team is one which will fight until the final moments. In a contest which I see being decided late, I'm grabbing the points! This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Cleveland Browns. |
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12-02-20 | Ravens +10 v. Steelers | Top | 14-19 | Win | 100 | 27 h 13 m | Show |
The set-up: Unfortunately, I played this game before all of the issues that the Ravens have gone through over the last week and I have the opening line of 3.5. I'm locked into this play and while I obviously don't love it as much as I did before all of this happened, I still do think that the Ravens have a legitimate shot at upsetting the Steelers outright. Baltimore plays with revenge after a 28-24 loss at home on November 1st. The Ravens actually outgained the Steelers 457 to 221 in that one and had 25 first downs compared to just 19. However, Pittsburgh won the turnover battle 4 to 1 and that was the difference in the end. The Ravens and Steelers are very evenly matched with their numbers through all three phases. The pick: The Ravens have both of their star RB's available now as well to play. Whoever is under center for Baltimore today, I think that the Ravens will "step up" here and "man up" and at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. Grab the points. This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Ravens. |
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11-23-20 | Rams +3.5 v. Bucs | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 179 h 57 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams need victories. Tampa has struggled against the better defenses so far this season and the Rams come to town with one of the best units on that side of the ball. LA is 6-3 and Tampa is 7-3. The Rams enter with a ton of momentum though, as after their bye-week they won a crucial 23-16 contest over division rival Seattle at home last Sunday. Jared Goff had over 300 yards passing for a second straight game. The defense though was tremendous, posting six sacks and two INT's. Tampa comes in off a 46-23 win over Carolina, as Tom Brady had 341 passing yards and three TD's. As mentioned above though, Brady has struggled against strong pass rushing teams, so I expect the veteran to take a step back here today. The picks: Schedule wise this favors the Rams, as the Bucs have yet to have their bye-week and coach Bruce Arians admits his team is tired. They're coming off a big win over a division rival on the road, and then Tampa has to deal with the Chiefs at home next weekend. LA hasn't been on the road since November 1st. While the outright win is possible in my opinion, I'm grabbing the points. This is a 10* MONEY-BOMB on the LA Rams. |
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11-22-20 | Chiefs -7 v. Raiders | Top | 35-31 | Loss | -105 | 155 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: Las Vegas is dealing with some COVID 19 issues right now with some of its defensive players. The Chiefs are 8-1 and their only loss was to the Raiders at home, so they come out of their bye week focussed and ready to lay a beat down on the national stage. KC's offense is as dangerous as ever, but its defense has made big strides this year, as it allows only 6.6 yards per attempt passing, which ranks thrid in the league. The picks: The Raiders earned the upset victory in KC, but they're still just 6-16 ATS in their last 22 following a SU win, while the Chiefs are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 when playing the role of favorites. KC is out for revenge and Andy Reid has had an extra week off to design and prepare. I expect a blowout from start to finish. This is a 10* SUNDAY NIGHT GAME OF THE YEAR on the Chiefs. |
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11-16-20 | Vikings v. Bears +3 | Top | 19-13 | Loss | -115 | 149 h 32 m | Show |
The set-up: Chicago comes in off a tough 24-17 loss at Tennessee. The Bears are now desperate as they look to break a three-game slide. The Vikes on the other hand look poised for letdown in my opinion after two-straight wins, most recently a 34-20 victory over the Lions. Dalvin Cook has sure looked great for Minnesota of late, so far he has 858 rushing yards and 13 TD's. Despite their recent "blip of success" though, note that the Vikings average 27.1 PPG, while conceding 29.3. The picks: Nick Foles had a big day in the Tennessee loss, going 36 of 52 335 yards and two touchdowns. The Bears have dominated this series at home, going 16-3 the last 19 in this series and 5-1 ATS the last six. Clearly I believe the outright is going to happen, but in the end I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can. This is a 10* BLOOD-BATH on the Chicago Bears. |
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11-12-20 | Colts +2.5 v. Titans | Top | 34-17 | Win | 100 | 83 h 44 m | Show |
The set-up: The Colts come in off a 24-10 home loss to the Ravens, but I think they'll find a way to get past the "on again, off again" Titans on Thursday night. Tennessee ended a two-game skid with a tougher than expected 24-17 home win over the Bears last weekend. These teams played twice last year of course and the road team won each tame. I like Philip Rivers to bounce back here vs. this suspect Titans secondary. Overall Indy is averaging 26 points per game and allowing 20. The picks: Tennessee is averaging 29 PPG and it's conceding 25.1. The Titans are a poor 27th against the pass as well, allowing 275 yards per game. The Colts are third against the run, which is Tennessee's strength. I'm banking on Rivers being the difference maker here vs. this terrible Titans defense. That said, grab the points! This is a 10* COACH'S CORNER on the Indianapolis Colts. |
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11-09-20 | Patriots v. Jets +7.5 | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 179 h 32 m | Show |
The set-up: I got down early and have an unfavorable line, but regardless, I like the Jets to at the very least, keep this one close enough to sneak in through the backdoor down the stretch. This is a big game for the Jets, who have an opportunity to get their first win of the year against the worst team they've faced all year, while also putting the final nail in the coffin for the Patriots playoff hopes. This is a monster "revenge" game as well for the Jets, who have lost eight straight in this series and nine of ten. Both teams have been terrible offensively and "OK" defensively. The picks: Darnold and the Jets have had to deal with several injuries, but I still think he's a better QB than Newton. Darnold won AFC Player of the week twice last season. Note as well that the Jets are 5-2 ATS in their last seven when playing at home to the Patriots. The outright is possible, but let's grab the points. This is a 10* BLOOD-BATH on the New York Jets. |
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11-02-20 | Bucs v. Giants +11 | Top | 25-23 | Win | 100 | 178 h 33 m | Show |
The set-up: Tampa is probably the best team in the NFC. That said, it did lose to New Orleans in Week 1 and it faces the Saints next week at home, followed by another divisional contest at Carolina. This game vs. the Giants is important, but not nearly as much as the two contests on deck. New York on the other hand has had to deal with several on and off-field issues, but it's lost its last three games by three points or less and four of six by eight points or less. Clearly the Bucs are the better team, but I think they'll slow down in the second half if they have a lead, while I expect New York to fight tooth and nail until the final whistle. The pick: Tampa is also just 2-6 ATS in its last eight after scoring 40 or more points in a 20 points or larger victory in its last outing. Expect the hungry Giants to comfortably sneak in through the back door with the large spread they've been afforded. This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the New York Giants. |
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10-29-20 | Falcons +3 v. Panthers | Top | 25-17 | Win | 100 | 81 h 50 m | Show |
The set-up: Atlanta is out of the playoff picture, but it's still trying to win games. These teams played in Week 5 and the Panthers scored the 23-16 victory, so this is also a revenge game as well. Atlanta comes in off a 23-22 loss to Detroit last time out, a heartbreaker which I think it'll boune back from here. Overall Atlanta is averaging 26.3 PPG and it's allowing 29.6. The pick: Carolina is averaging 23.1 points per game and it's allowing 24. The Panthers have lost two in a row now and I think their offense will have a hard time keeping up with Atlanta and Julio Jones, who was not playing in the Week 5 contest. Carolina is also just 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven at home, while the Falcons are 6-1 against the spread in their last seven as a road underdog. Atlanta has played better than its 1-6 record and I expect it to avenge the earlier Week 5 loss today. That said, grab the points! This is a 10* BLOOD-BATH on the Atlanta Falcons. |
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10-18-20 | Rams -3 v. 49ers | Top | 16-24 | Loss | -120 | 124 h 14 m | Show |
The set-up: The 49ers have ben ravaged by injury early. Jimmy Garopolo only played a half in last week's 43-17 loss to the Dolphins, but he's expected to start this week. San Francisco though still has many holes on both sides of the ball. The Rams are 4-1 and they're playing exceptional defense right now, allowing only 18 points and 330 yards of total offense per game. If San Francisco has troubles moving the ball on the Fish, I can't see it having much luck in this divisional contest vs. this elite defense. The Rams have also gotten great play from Jared Goff, who has limited the turnovers in the early going. The pick: San Francisco is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven after allowing more than 250 passing yards in its previous game as well, while the Rams are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games vs. a team with a losing record. This one has lop-sided "blowout" written all over it. Lay the points. This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the LA Rams. |
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10-11-20 | Colts v. Browns +1.5 | Top | 23-32 | Win | 100 | 53 h 38 m | Show |
The set-up: Two contrasting styles of play here, as Indianapolis gets the job done with defense, while the Browns try to run their opponents off the field with their high-powered offense. The Colts are averaging 25.8 PPG and they're allowing 14. The Browns are averaging 31.0 and they're conceding 31.5. The pick: But Cleveland has averaged 39.3 PPG over its last three and this offense is firing on all cylinders. The Colts will have their hands full with Nick Chubb and this Browns rushing game which leads the NFL. Baker Mayfield is dual threat himself. I think this is a big opportunity for Cleveland's defense as well, as the Colts don't ask Philip Rivers to ever do too much. I'm all over Cleveland in this one. This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Cleveland Browns. |
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09-27-20 | Rams v. Bills -1 | Top | 32-35 | Win | 100 | 48 h 47 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams are 2-0 SU, but Buffalo is 0-2 ATS. Here is a stat which this pick is primarily based upon: How NFL teams that start 0-2 ATS perform in Week 3: Last 4 Seasons: 22-7 ATS (75.9%) Last 10 Seasons: 47-28 ATS (62.7%) The pick: Additionally note that Buffalo is 4-1 ATS in its last five as a favorite, while the Rams are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight on the road when facing a team with a winning record. I think the Rams' inefficiences on the defensive end come back to haunt them here. Lay the points. This is an 8* ATS SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Buffalo Bills. |
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09-24-20 | Dolphins v. Jaguars -2.5 | Top | 31-13 | Loss | -125 | 56 h 16 m | Show |
The set-up: Miami is now 0-2 after a tough 31-28 setback at home to the Bills. The Dolphins looked good at times in that loss and pretty poor in others. Miami didn't look great in New England either in Week 1, losing 21-11. The Dolphins have the Seahawks at home next weekend, but they'll have to be careful to not look past this potentially dangerous Jaguars team, who I think will actually find a way to get the job done again here. Jacksonville is just 1-1 straight up, but it's so far 2-0 against the spread. The Jags upset the Colts 27-20 at home in Week 1, before then falling 33-30 to Tennessee in Week 2. The Jags allowed four TD passes to Ryan Tannehill, but QB Gardner Minshew continues to be competitive each week. Last week Minshew was 30 of 45 for 339 yards, three TD's and two INT's. And with two straight difficult road games at Cinncinati and Houston respectively, this is a game which the lowly Jaguars would have had circled on their calendar before the season started as a "winnable" one. The pick: Miami's schedule is a difficult and I think it very well could have already thrown in the towel on the season. After the Seahawks at home next week it then has two on the road at San Francisco and Denver, followed by home games vs. the Chargers and Rams and then another road game at Arizona before then finally catching a break with back-to-back games vs. the Jets. Let's face it...neither of these teams is going to be in the playoffs, but I think that Minshew and the Jaguars are playing better through all three phases right now and despite no fans in the stands, I think they benefit greatly here in playing at home. The Jaguars are also 4-1 against the spread in their last five overall, while Miami is a pitiful 7-15 ATS in its last 22 on the road (and just 2-14 straight up in its last 16 away from friendly confines.) This is a 10* BLOOD-BATH on the Jacksonville Jaguars. |
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09-21-20 | Saints -5.5 v. Raiders | Top | 24-34 | Loss | -103 | 36 h 30 m | Show |
The set-up: I like Drew Brees and company to lay the hammer down in the new Las Vegas stadium. The Saints beat the Bucs 34-23 last weekend. Drew Brees had 180 yards passing and two TD's. TE Jared Cook had five receptions for 80 yards. The defense allowed 310 yards total, including 224 through the air. The Saints though sacked Tom Brady three times, while also posting two interceptions. The Raiders beat the Panthers on the road 34-30. Oakland posted 372 yards of offense, with Dereck Carr posting 239 yards and one TD. The Raiders though allowed 388 total yards of offense to a pretty terrible Carolina team. The pick: Note as well that the Raiders are just 16-34-1 ATS in their last 51 following a SU win and only 1-4 ATS in their last five after posting more than 350 total yards in their previous outing. The Saints though are 4-0 ATS in their last four as a favorite and I think their depth across all three phases will be too much for Carr and company to keep up to down the stretch. Lay the points. This is a 10* ATS BLOOD-BATH on the New Orleans Saints. |
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09-20-20 | Giants v. Bears -4.5 | Top | 13-17 | Loss | -104 | 118 h 7 m | Show |
The set-up: I think the Bears can build off their big fourth quarter last week. The Giants though looked inept vs. the Steelers in their 26-16 setback at home on Monday though and I think they'll struggle again here on the short week. QB Daniel Jones had 279 yards passing and two TD's. The defense allowed 229 passing yards and 113 rushing. The pick: The Bears overcame a 17 point second half deficit to get an impressive win in Detroit last SUnday. QB Mitch Trubisky had 242 passing yards and three TD's. Chicago allowed 288 yards passing, but I think the unit can improve at home here vs. Jones, who is down a few key pieces. Note as well that the Bears are 5-2 ATS in their last seven at home vs. teams with losing records, while New York is 0-6 ATS in its last six vs. clubs with winning records. Lay the points, expect a blowout! This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE DESTRUCTION on the Chicago Bears. |
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09-14-20 | Steelers v. Giants +7 | Top | 26-16 | Loss | -138 | 33 h 2 m | Show |
The set-up: Pittsburgh finished 8-8 last year after QB Ben Roethlisberger went down with injury in the second game. The Steelers have Big Ben back, but I think Pittsburgh still has many issues to address and resolve before I feel too comfortable in laying a large spread on the road, especially on Opening night. Granted, the Giants have more questions than answers as well, but I still think the pieces are in place for the home side to keep this one competitive. The pick: These teams averaged similar amount of points last year, but the Giants were a train-wreck defensively. New York picked up a few key pieces for the unit this year and I think it has a big opportunity here facing what should be a very "rusty" Roethlisberger. I like the dynamic offensive combination of QB Daniel Jones and RB Saquaon Barkley to at the very least, keep this one close enough for the home side to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. This is a 10* ATS BLOOD-BATH on the New York Giants. |
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09-13-20 | Chargers v. Bengals +3.5 | Top | 16-13 | Win | 100 | 3021 h 46 m | Show |
The set-up: Tyrod Taylor starts as QB for the Chargers, while Joe Burrow will be under center for the Bengals. LA has issues with its offensive line, which doesn't look good for Taylor to start the season. The main back in LA is Austin Ekeler, who had 557 yards and three TD's last season. The Chargers' defense was its strength last year, but I think it'll have its hands full with this Bengals' offense which has something to prove in Week 1. The pick: AJ Green is back and ready to put on a show after an injury plagued 2019. RB Joe Mixon had 1,137 yards and five TD's last year. The defense finished ninth overall last year as well. Finally note that the Bengals are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven Week 1 contests, while the Chargers are a disappointing 1-5 ATS in their last six when playing the role of favorite. While the outright win isn't out of the question, I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can! 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Cinncinnati Bengals. |
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09-10-20 | Texans +10 v. Chiefs | Top | 20-34 | Loss | -130 | 221 h 30 m | Show |
The set-up: The Texans are sizeable underdogs on Thursday night, but I think the visitors will be able to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. These two teams played twice last year. The Texans won 31-24 as a 3.5 point underdog in the first game, while the they lost 51-31 in the second (after having a 24-0 lead in the first half!) Houston went 10-6 last year and it now has a new head coach in Bill O'Brien. DeShaun Watson is gone, which is obviously a blow to the offense, but with DeShaun Watson under center and with David Johnson in the backfield and playing with a chip on his shoulder, Houston has a strong foundation to work with on the offensive side of the ball. Note Randall Cobb will have plenty of opportunity this season to fill the void left by Watson. Houston welcomes back defensive juggernaut JJ Watt, who is now fully recovered from his injury which saw him miss eight games last year. The pick: The Chiefs went 12-4 last year en route to the Super Bowl victory. KC is once again favored to win the Super Bowl this year, but after going over it's team O/U total for seven straight years and with a target on its back each and every week and with the most difficult schedule it's faced in a decade, I think that regression is imminent. Winning makes you complacent. Does Patrick Mahomes have the drive and determination that he had before he won the Super Bowl and the biggest contract in sports history? That remains to be seen. I think Houston is filled with talent that won't be rolling over on the national stage. Outright victory? I'm not calling for it, but everything to me points to this one coming right down to the wire. This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Houston Texans. |
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01-19-20 | Packers +7.5 v. 49ers | Top | 20-37 | Loss | -130 | 155 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: The Packers jumped out to an early lead vs. the Seahawks in the Divisional Round and then had to hold on for dear life for the victory. Green Bay took the foot off the gas, but it won't have that luxury this weekend in hostile territory. The Packers lost to the 49ers in the regular season, but I believe Aaron Rodgers and company have much more than just a "punchers chance" at winning this one outright. The 49ers beat the Vikings 27-10 last weekend. San Francisco has the home field advantage and the slightly better defense, but Green Bay still has the clear advantage at the QB position in my opinion. Jimmy Garropolo is putting together a great season, but would anyone out there claim that he's solely responsible for getting his team to this point? Rodgers' vast experience gives the Packers the upper-hand at the QB position in my opinion. The pick: Note as well that Green Bay is already 3-1 ATS as an underdog thi syear, while San Fran is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight after two or more straight wins vs. the spread, including only 1-3 ATS this season. Grab the points, expect a battle until the final moments. 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Packers. |
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01-12-20 | Seahawks v. Packers -3.5 | Top | 23-28 | Win | 100 | 130 h 41 m | Show |
The set-up: Is Russel Wilson a "better" QB than Aaron Rodgers right now? Probably. But not by much. Wilson managed to get the most out of his injured team and they took advantage of the fact that Philly' QB Carson Wentz got knocked out early with an injury. The Hawks looked tired now in my opinion. Note that last week they committed 11 penalties for 114 yards. WR DK Metcalf was a bright spot though with 160 receiving yards. I like Rodgers here at home and with a week off to prepare. The Green Bay furture Hall of Famer isn't the same player he used to be, but this is a spot in which I think he can take full advantage of. Note that Green Bay was sixth in red zone efficiency this year. The pick: Additionally note that the Packers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight vs. teams with winning records and 5-1 ATS in their last six playoff contests, while the Hawks are just 2-6 ATS in its last eight games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. When you add it all up, I think this one has blowout from start to finish written all over it. Lay the points. 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Green Bay Packers. |
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01-11-20 | Titans +10.5 v. Ravens | Top | 28-12 | Win | 100 | 154 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: I like Tennessee to keep this one closer than expected. Derrick Henry is a beast and behind the improved play of QB Ryan Tannehill, the Titans won a very tricky game at Foxborough last weekend. Beating Bill Bellichick on his own field and after such a tragic loss in Week 17 as well is very impressive in my books. The Titans are playing really good football right now in all three phases. They won't be intimidated whatsoever after posting the Playoff win in New England vs. the defending champs either. And will "rest" lead to "rust" for LaMar Jackson and company? Jackson will have to carry the load here with a minor injury to RB Mark Ingram. This is significant in my opinion. The pick: Tennessee is a sharp 6-3 ATS in its last nine road games and 9-4 ATS in its last 13 as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while Baltimore is a poor 3-6 ATS in its last nine as a home favorite in the 7 to 14 points range, including 0-2 ATS this season. I'm not calling for an outright, but all signs point to this one once again coming down to the wire. 10* PLAYOFF GAME OF THE YEAR on the Tennessee Titans. |
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01-05-20 | Seahawks -1.5 v. Eagles | Top | 17-9 | Win | 100 | 154 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: The Eagles finished 9-7, while the Hawks ended up 11-5. Seattle almost knocked off the 49ers at home in Week 17, but it just wasn't to be. The Eagles had to sweep their final four games to punch their ticket, including a win over the Giants in Week 17. The Hawks will be without the services of WR Jaron Brown, who suffered a torn MCL in the loss to San Fran. That's going to put added pressure on QB Russell Wilson to carry the load and manage the game today. He'll also be leaning heavily on his run game, as Marshawn Lynch looked stronger as the game progressed in his first action in a while vs. the 49ers. The Eagles are also dealing with injury to RB Miles Sanders, who is listed as questionable here. Carson Wentz may have TE Zach Ertz back in the line-up today, but like his counterpart, the veteran pivot will have to shoulder the responsibility today if his team is going to win this one. Both teams are going to rely on their run game to alleviate that pressure from their QB's though. Each is banged up on the offensive side as well. Ultimately though I feel that Wilson's experience and the Seahawks depth across the board will win the day between these two injured teams. The pick: Additionally note that Seattle is 4-1 ATS in its last five on the road and 4-1 ATS in its last five as a road favorite, while Philly is only 3-4 ATS at home this season and just 3-4 ATS when playing the role of underdog. For all the reasons listed above, I'm backing Seattle. 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Seahawks. |
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12-29-19 | 49ers v. Seahawks +3.5 | Top | 26-21 | Loss | -120 | 131 h 12 m | Show |
The set-up: The winner of this game will win the NFC West. Forget that the Seahawks have "Beast Mode" as their RB now. Forget about what each team has done to this point, and please just look at these stats below, as they are what I'm basing my pick on entirely: Seahawks in primetime: 16-4-2 ATS L22 at home 14-4-1 ATS L19 divisional games 14-2 ATS L16 as an underdog Seahawks as a home underdog: 9-0 ATS L9 Seahawks after an ATS loss: 9-1-1 ATS The pick: 10* ELITE OF THE ELITE on the Seattle Seahawks. |
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12-23-19 | Packers +4 v. Vikings | Top | 23-10 | Win | 101 | 179 h 49 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams are headed to the playoffs, but each is fighting for a better spot. In a game which I see being decided by whichever of these hungry sides has its hands on the ball last, I'm going to grab the points. Green Bay beat Minnesota 21-16 at home and I do indeed feel that another outright victory isn't out of the question here either. Green Bay beat the Bears 21-13 last weekend and with a victory here it can wrap up the division crown. Look for veteran QB Aaron Rodgers to continue his brilliant season, so far he has 24 TD's and just two INT's. Also RB Aaron Jones had two TD's last weekend. The pick: The Vikes have won eight of their last ten, led by the great play of QB Kirk Cousins, who has 25 TD's and only five INT's. Also note, Minnesota is now already in the playoffs, having clinched after the Rams last outright to the 49ers yesterday. Finally note that Minnesota is just 2-11 ATS in its last 13 MNF contests, while GB is 6-1 ATS in its last seven vs. teams with winning records. Grab the points. 10* COACH'S CORNER on the Green Bay Packers. |
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12-22-19 | Chiefs -4.5 v. Bears | Top | 26-3 | Win | 100 | 155 h 1 m | Show |
The set-up: The Chiefs have a lot to play for, as while they've clinched the division, they're still gunning for home field advantage. The Bears are 7-7 and have fallen out of playoff contention. Is the thought of playing "spoiler" here an actual factor we can take into consideration? I don't think so. The Bears are out and now they face a non-conference power house. Yes Mitchell Trubisky has something to prove, but I don't think his slightly improved play of late is going to be enough here. The pick: The Chiefs have rebounded from a tough stretch and they're looking sharp on both sides of the ball, averaging 28.1 PPG, while the defense has recorded 14 INT's and 39 sacks this season. Additionally note that Chicago is just 1-4 ATS in its last five vs. teams with winning records, while KC is 4-1 ATS in its last five as a favorite. I'm laying the points and expecting a complete lop-sided destruction. 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the KC Chiefs. |
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12-21-19 | Bills +7 v. Patriots | Top | 17-24 | Push | 0 | 127 h 25 m | Show |
The set-up: Buffalo's won ten games for the first time in more than 20 years and it's headed back to the playoffs. The Patriots have also already clinched. Each team though is still jockeying for better playoff positioning. The Bills' young QB Josh Allen has made significant strides since the first time he faced New England earlier in the year and I believe he has a legitimate shot at avenging that setback. Note that when they played Tom Brady the first time, they kept the hall of fame QB in check by allowing him only 150 yards on 39 attempts. The Bills have been tremendous at home, but they come in the under radar here afte rgoing 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight away from friendly confines. The pick: New England has an 11-3 record, but Brady looks a step behind (he's thrown for less than 190 yards in three of his past four games.) The defense has looked shaky at times over the last month as well. Additionally note that the Bills are 4-1 ATS in their last five in revenging a close loss by seven points or less to an opponent, while NE is just 1-5 ATS this season vs. teams with winning records. I'm grabbing the points. 10* BLOOD-BATH on Buffalo. |
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12-15-19 | Broncos +11.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 3-23 | Loss | -115 | 148 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: Denver still has a mathematical shot at making the playoffs, but it has to win out and also get some outside help. It's obviously never going to happen, but I love playing on highly motivated teams and clearly the visiting side fits that bill here. The Chiefs on the other hand have already clinched the division, so a minor letdown here mentally is definitely in the cards as well in my opinion. Denver comes to town on a role as well after two straight wins, most recently steam-rolling the Texans 38-24 on the road. Rookie QB Drew Lock had 300 yards vs. the Texans last week and the Chiefs' secondary is a lot worse. The pick: Clearly it won't be a cake walk, as KC enters having won three straight. With a tough road game in Chicago next week, KC could be caught looking past its opponent this afternoon as well. Finally note that the Broncos are 6-1 ATS in their last seven as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while KC is 0-3 ATS in its last three as a home favorite of 7.5 to ten points. I'm banking the Broncos fighting tooth and nail and because of that, I'm grabbing the points. 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Denver Broncos. |
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12-08-19 | Ravens v. Bills +6 | Top | 24-17 | Loss | -115 | 143 h 58 m | Show |
The set-up: I have the Bills at 5.5. Whether you have 5, 5.5 or 6, I love this play. So far the Lamar Jackson and the Ravens have passed almost every test this year, but I think they're in trouble here this weekend vs. this under the radar Bills team which continues to get little respect from the oddsmakers. The Ravens have a "cream puff" at home vs. the Jets next weekend, followed by games vs. the Browns and then at home vs. the Steelers. Both teams have superb defenses, so I'm calling that area a "wash." Jackson have been phenomenal, but Bills' QB Josh Allen has gotten progressively better each week as well and he's been particularly sharp over the last month. The pick: The road ahead though is not quite as "easy" for the Bills, who have back-to-back road games at Pittsburgh and New England. Neither of those games are going to be "easy." This game isn't going to be "easy" either, but Buffalo clearly has to be looking at this contest as a "must win" game. In fact, I'm banking on it! Of course Jackson and company really "want" to win this one, but would anyone fault the second year pro and Baltimore for finally having a "letdown" here and looking ahead to that much more winnable game at home next week? Baltimore managed the SU win over the 49ers last weekend, but not ATS. I think it stumbles here as well (additionally note that Baltimore is just 8-10 ATS in its last 18 after one more loss vs. the spread, including 1-3 ATS this season, while Buffalo is already a perfect 4-0 ATS this year as an underdog.) The bottom line is that I think the Ravens do indeed finally have their letdown, while I expect Buffalo to risk life and limb in front of the home town crowd. While the outright is possible, in the end let's grab the points. 10* GAME OF THE YEAR on the Buffalo Bills. |
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12-01-19 | 49ers +6.5 v. Ravens | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 123 h 21 m | Show |
The set-up: San Francisco is 10-1 and the Ravens are 9-2. Baltimore QB Lamar Jackson has been unbelievable, but I think the second year pro will have a difficult time today vs. the 49ers top ranked defense. Jimmy Garropolo and the 49ers come in off a complete game destruction of the Packers. The pick: The Ravens have looked fantastic, but I think they'll have a real fight on their hands here. San Francisco matches up extremely well with Baltimore and Kyle Shannahan has made all the right calls in the early going as head coach (note as well that SF is already 2-0 ATS this season as a road dog, while Baltimore is just 1-3 ATS as a home favorite. In a contest which I envision coming down to whichever of these talented teams has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points. 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the San Fran 49ers. |
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11-25-19 | Ravens v. Rams +3.5 | Top | 45-6 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 41 m | Show |
The set-up: The Ravens have a firm grip on the AFC North at 8-2. Baltimore comes in having won five straight, but I think it'll have its hands full with this desperate home side, which must now win tonight after both Seattle and San Francisco prevailed. The Rams made it to the Super Bowl last year, but if they don't win this game tonight, then they won't have the opportunity to try and do it again. The pick: LA only allows 89 rushing yards per game and the Ravens count on RB Mark Ingram to open things up for Ravens' QB Lamar Jackson. Jackson's been having a great year, but note that he's been sacked 18 times this year and LA already has 29 sacks under its belt. LA has actually won three of its last five, most recently a 17-7 victory over Chicago. Note as well that the Rams are 7-3 ATS in their last ten following a SU victory, while Baltimore is a poor 12-16 ATS in its last 28 as a favorite. In a game which comes down to the wire, let's grab the points. 10* BLOOD-BATH on the Rams. |
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11-24-19 | Steelers v. Bengals +7 | Top | 16-10 | Win | 100 | 22 h 8 m | Show |
The set-up: The Steelers are coming off a loss to the Browns. Pittsburgh's season is on the line here and while the 0-10 Bengals may not win this one outright, I do think the home side catches the right team at the right time to pull out its first victory. Pittsburgh is better than Cincinnati in two of three phases, but I certainly think that its QB Mason Rudolph is a major liability. Last week Rudolph threw four INT's. Also note that Pittsburgh is dealin with injuries to JuJu Smith-Schuster and RB James Conner. And to make matters worse, the Steelers lost center Maurkice Pouncey after last week's brawl with the Browns. Pittsburgh has had to deal with plenty of off-field distractions this week and I believe all of these add up to a major "letdown" here this weekend. The pick: Joe Mixon and the Bengals won't be going down without a fight today. Note as well that the Bengals are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five after scoring 14 points or less in two straight games, while the Steelers are only 3-7 ATS in their last ten as a road favorite. For all the reasons listed above, grab the points. 10* DESTRUCTION on the Cincinnati Bengals. |
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11-21-19 | Colts v. Texans -3.5 | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -110 | 85 h 30 m | Show |
The set-up: The Colts come in off a win over the Jaguars, but I think they'll struggle here vs. a Houston team which enters off a loss to the Ravens. While Indianapolis will have Jacoby Brissett under center, note that it'll be without the services of top RB Marlon Mack, who suffered a broken hand. This is a major hit to an offense which relies on a strong run game to open things up for Brissett. The pick: The Texans not only want to bounce back after last week's loss to the surging Ravens, but they also play with revenge here after losing to the Colts by 7 in Indianapolis earlier in the year. Houston has had plenty of difficulties over the years with the Colts and while the struggled last week, I think this one sets up well for a bounce back performance. The short week favors the home side and I'll point out that Indy is in fact just 12-15 ATS in its last 27 as an underdog and 0-2 ATS in its last two "Thursday night" games, while Houston is 5-1 ATS in its last six in revenging a road loss vs. an opponent and 2-0 ATS in its last two Thursday night games. Lay the points. 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Texans. |
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11-18-19 | Chiefs v. Chargers +4 | Top | 24-17 | Loss | -110 | 176 h 52 m | Show |
The set-up: This game is being played in Mexico City. Both teams enter off hard-fought and very close losses. KC fell 35-32 to Tennessee, while LA lost 26-24 to the Raiders. I think another "battle" is on our hands here and in a contest which I envision coming down to the final moments, I'll grab the points. KC has lost three of its last five and I believe its ripe for the picking here. Patrick Mahomes has 18 TD's and one INT so far, but I think he'll struggle in this difficult road venue vs. this desperate Chargers team which needs to win, or be eliminated from playoff contention. The pick: KC is just 2-6 ATS In its last eiht after a loss by six points or less and just 6-10 ATS in its last 16 after an ATS loss, while LA is 11-6 ATS in its last 17 as an underdog. While I wouldn't be shocked by an outright upset, in the end I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can. 10* DESTRUCTION on the LA Chargers. |
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11-10-19 | Vikings +3 v. Cowboys | Top | 28-24 | Win | 100 | 151 h 36 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cowboys are off a 37-18 Monday night win over the Giants. Dallas' QB Dak Prescott threw for three TD's. But now the Cowboys face the red hot Vikings, led by Dalvin Cook, who had 71 yards in his team's close 26-23 loss to Kansas City. Minnesota QB Kirk Cousins had 222 passing yards and three TD's in a losing cause. Overall the Vikes are No. 1 in stopping the run and they've only allowed two rushing TD's all season. The pick: Dallas has won two in a row, but with back-to-back tough road games in Detroit and New England upcoming, clearly this is a tough stretch for the home side. Note that Dallas WR Amari Cooper didn't practice on Thursday and he's a game time decision here. NOte as well that Minnesota is a sharp 8-2 ATS in its last ten following a SU loss (including 2-0 ATS this season,) while Dallas is just 5-6 ATS in its last 11 after two or more consecutive victories. I think Minnesota's defense is not getting enough credit here. Grab the points. 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Minnesota Vikings. |
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11-04-19 | Cowboys -7 v. Giants | Top | 37-18 | Win | 100 | 61 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: Dallas smashed New York 35-17 in Week 1 when Eli Manning was under center. The Cowboys have been hit or miss this year, but they're coming off an impressive 37-10 win over Philadelphia in Week 7, a team which was just as hungry as desperate as they were. Dallas is coming off a Week 8 bye as well, so it's been planning and preparing for this crucial contest for a while now. New York though isn't sure what's going on, most recently losing 31-26 on the road to the Lions. At 2-6, the Giants' season is already over and they can now start preparing and planning for next year. The pick: New York is just 1-5 ATS in its last six at home, while Dallas is 4-1 ATS in its last five as a road favorite in the 3.5 to 7 points range. Breaking down individual player matchups or what each team's defensive and offensive numbers are is not important tonight. The situational factors combined with these strong trends make Dallas the savvy call in my professional opinion. Lay the points. 10* BLOOD BATH on the Dallas Cowboys. |
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11-03-19 | Lions +2 v. Raiders | Top | 24-31 | Loss | -109 | 124 h 20 m | Show |
The set-up: What do you base your picks on? For me, I like to remain flexible and don't follow any one single methodology. The Raiders have been arguably the biggest "surprise" team in the NFL this year, a lot more competititve than what most thought. But in my opinion, this one sets up as a "trap/letdown" for the home side. And that's because the Raiders haven't actually played a "home" game in the last five weeks (the only time in the last five weeks that Oakland was the "home" side was its game in London three weeks ago.) Now the players return home to their own beds and their families finally and I think that it's going to have a detrimental effect to their play on the field today. The pick: Oakland has lost two straight as well. The Lions though come off a crucial 31-26 win over the Giants last weekend and they'll be laying everything on the line here as they try to keep pace with the Packers. Note as well that Detroit is 8-2 ATS in its last ten as a road dog and 8-2 ATS in its last ten vs. clubs with losing records, while Oakland is a terrible 3-5 ATS in its last eight as a favorite and only 3-7 ATS in its last ten non-conference games. A great situational play on the Lions this weekend. 10* GAME OF MONTH on the Detroit Lions. |
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10-31-19 | 49ers -8.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 28-25 | Loss | -110 | 76 h 22 m | Show |
The set-up: I got down early and have a favorable line in this one, but regardless, I like San Francisco to come in focussed on the task at hand and to once again run up the score quickly in this one as it then gets ready to play Seattle the following week. Clearly this is a big game for Arizona, as it sits at 3-4 and another loss will essentially take it out of the running for a playoff spot with both Seattle and San Francisco in its division. But San Francisco's depth on the defensive side of the ball and it's strong run game is going to prove to be too much for Cards' rookie QB Kyler Murray today. The pick: Arizona enters off a tough road loss to the Saints and I don't think the home side has gotten over that setback. It's interesting to note as well that San Fran is 2-0 ATS in its last two Thursday night contests, while Arizona is interestingly 0-3 ATS in its last three following a two game road trip. No upsets this week, lay the points. 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the San Francisco 49ers. |
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10-27-19 | Raiders v. Texans -6.5 | Top | 24-27 | Loss | -105 | 150 h 2 m | Show |
The set-up: This is Oakland's fifth straight game on the road, a trip which has included a trip to London. I admit that the Raiders have been better than I thought they'd be this year, but I think they're going to suffer a predictable letdown here vs. this focused home side, which comes in off a 30-23 loss to the Colts. The Raiders got crushed 41-24 at Green Bay last weekend and now they face a similar type offense in DeShaun Watson and the Texans. The pick: Oakland allowed five TD's to Aaron Rodgers last weekend and they average 21 PPG, while conceding 27.5. The Texans on the other hand average 26 PPG, while allowing 23. Oakland is also a poor 5-13 ATS in its last 18 on the road (including 1-2 ATS this year), while Houston is 3-1 ATS in its last four after a two-game road trip. I like Watson to domiante this porous Raiders' secondary. Lay the points. 10* play on the Houston Texans. |
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10-20-19 | Chargers v. Titans -1 | Top | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 50 h 27 m | Show |
The set-up: This is a big game for both teams. Each of these teams had huge expectations coming in, but each has struggled mightily to open the 2019/20 campaign. The Chargers are off a 24-17 home loss to the Steelers, while the Titans fell 16-0 in Denver. While Philip Rivers had 320 yards and two TD's last week for the Bolts, he also had two INT's. And now he faces the leagues second best pass defenses which concedes just 217 passing yards per game. Also note that Rivers has been sacked 12 times already this year. The pick: Marcus Mariota is out and Ryan Tannehill is in for the Titans this week. Tannehill makes his first start for his new team and I expect the pivot to make the most of this opportunity. LA though is just 5-6 ATS in its last 11 vs. teams with losing records, while Tennessee is 6-2 ATS in its last eight off a road loss. I think the Titans superior defense is the difference here and I like Tannehill to make the most of this opportunity. Lay the points. 10* COACH'S CORNER on the Tennessee Titans. |
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10-17-19 | Chiefs v. Broncos +4 | Top | 30-6 | Loss | -115 | 83 h 51 m | Show |
The set-up: Patrick Mahomes is the same player, but this isn't the same Chiefs team which we saw last year. The defense was always a weak point and it remains a weak point now as well. But the offense isn't "clicking" like it once was and penalties and poor special teams play have led to back-to-back losses for KC. After starting 0-4, the Broncos have now won two in a row. The revenge angle comes into play here for the home side as well, as it's lost seven straight in this series (it's interesting to note though that Broncos' new QB Joe Flacco is 2-0 vs. the Chiefs for his career.) The pick: KC allows over 400 yards per game on defense, which is 29th in the league overall. Also note that Mahomes is in fact nursing a sprained ankle and he's playing without the services of LT Eric Fisher. The KC run game is also non-existent, averaging only 87 YPG. Denver's defense has been a strength of late and I think the unit is going to have another big night tonight. Finally note that the Broncos are interestingly 10-2 ATS in their last 12 Thursday night games, while KC is only 2-5-1 ATS in its last eight following an ATS loss. I'm grabbing the points. 10* PLAY-BOOK on the Denver Broncos. |
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10-14-19 | Lions +4 v. Packers | Top | 22-23 | Win | 100 | 35 h 14 m | Show |
The set-up: Detroit is 2-1-1 and Green Bay is 4-1. The Lions have looked decent on both sides of the ball, with wins over the Chargers and Eagles and nearly getting by the Chiefs last time out. Green Bay smoked the Cowboys in Dallas last weekend, but after the Cowboys lost to the Jets yesterday, I'm taking that victory with a proverbial "grain of salt." Detroit also comes in focussed and healthy after its bye week. The pick: The Lions defense has been impressive, shutting down Philip Rivers, Carson Wentz, while also holding Patrick Mahomes without a TD. Green Bay has been terrific defensively as well, so I'll call that department a "wash." I think that Lions' veteran QB Matt Stafford has enough tricks up his sleeve to put the pressure on Aaron Rodgers and company. In a game which I envision being decided by whichever of these hungry teams has its hands on the ball last, I'm going to grab the points. 10* COACH'S CORNER on the Detroit Lions. |
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10-13-19 | Steelers v. Chargers -5.5 | Top | 24-17 | Loss | -110 | 155 h 43 m | Show |
The set-up: The Steelers are 1-4 and the Chargers are 2-3. This is a "must win" game for both teams. But I like Philip Rivers and company on their own soil here. Note that this is a revenge game as well for the home side after it fell 33-30 in Pittsburgh last season. Both teams enter off losses. Pittsburgh' backup QB Mason Rudolph suffered a concussion last weekend and he's listed as doubtful here. While the Pittsburgh defense picked off Ravens' QB Lamar Jackson three times last week, I don't expect that kind of sloppy play from Rivers at home and after last weekend's poor 20-13 loss at home. The pick: The Chargers have actually been quite stingy defensively, allowing only 334.8 total yards of offense per game. Pittsburgh allows 229.8 passing yards per game, but now they'll have to deal with LA RB Melvin Gordon, who has finally returned from his holdout. Too many question marks surrounding Pittsburgh here, while the conditions are unquestionably correct for a big bounce back for LA in my opinion. Lay the points with confidence. 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the LA Chargers. |
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