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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-09-22 | Seahawks v. Saints OVER 44.5 | Top | 32-39 | Win | 100 | 14 h 34 m | Show |
The 1-3 Saints face the 2-2 Seahawks in new Orleans on Sunday. The Seahawks put up a whopping 48 points against Detroit, but gave back almost as many on defense. Geno Smith is the darling of Seattle , with comparisons to Wilson in his prime. He is a surprising 3rd in passer rating for the season, has been remarkably accurate, and appears to be settling in as a solid option. He has a good running back in Penny, terrific targets, and has had time to operate. The Seahawks are 5th in sacks allowed. New Orleans doesn’t blitz frequently, and are not strong in pressuring QBs, just 23rd in sacks to date. They gave up 263 yards to Cousins last week, but otherwise have limited teams in passing yards. They are just 20th in rushing yards allowed. They have not proved to be as dominant a defense as might have been expected to date. Dalton was fine last week against a bottom-third Vikings defense. Kamara should be back with Ingram this week. The Saints managed 25 (nearly 28) points vs the Vikings, and have a great opportunity to score more against a highly suspect Seahawks defense. Seattle is in the bottom third in most of the league’s defensive categories, including points, passing yards and rushing yards allowed, and makes most passers look like stars. Both teams should move the ball well, and while the Seahawks scoring another 48 against the Saints is unlikely, New Orleans has an opportunity to set a season high for points against Seattle this week. Take this game to go over. |
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10-08-22 | Michigan v. Indiana OVER 59 | Top | 31-10 | Loss | -109 | 17 h 22 m | Show |
So depending on what your closing number was for Michigan-UConn (either 58.5 or 59), the 4th ranked Wolverines are either 4-0-1 to the Under or 4-1. They won that UConn game 59-0. Each of Michigan’s first four games saw at least 58 total points scored. Then they played Iowa last week and it was 27-14. So save for Iowa, this number is right in line with how previous Michigan games have ended up. The thing is, the Wolverines have played some terrible offenses thus far. Maryland would be the exception and they put up 27 on Jim Harbaugh’s defense. While I don’t think Indiana is going to challenge Michigan for an outright upset, I do see the Hoosiers putting up a decent number of points. This is because they play at the fastest tempo in the entire country, running a play every 17.5 seconds. Additionally, IU throws it at one of the highest rates in the country. As they are likely to be trailing most of this game, there’s no doubt QB Bazelak will be airing it out Saturday. Michigan is scoring 45.4 points/game and should have no problem moving the ball against the Indiana defense, which has allowed 110 points in the last three games. JJ McCarthy is looking good at QB in Ann Arbor and even against Iowa’s good defense, the Wolverines averaged five yards/play. Looking at the spread, all we need is three touchdowns from Indiana in this game to likely hit the Over. They have scored 21 or more in every game this year. Michigan’s defense isn’t as strong as it was in 2021. Take the Over. 10* |
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10-07-22 | UNLV v. San Jose State OVER 51.5 | Top | 7-40 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
This UNLV-San Jose State matchup on Friday night should turn into a shootout, even with the Rebels down two of their top three receivers.
Just five weeks into the season, UNLV has doubled its win total from the previous two years. Their best way to attack the San Jose State defense in this one would be via the run as the Spartans allow 152 yards/game on the ground, 80th in the country. One of SJSU’s best defenders, Noah Wright, left last week’s game on a stretcher. So UNLV shouldn’t have much difficulty moving the ball in this one.
So far the Rebels are putting up an average of 37.8 points/game. They’ve scored at least 31 on everyone besides California.
But SJSU’s offense has come around with 67 points in wins over Western Michigan and Wyoming the last two games. QB Chevan Cordeiro has been quite effective for the Spartans, throwing for more than 1,000 yards so far and adding another 180 on the ground. Last week, New Mexico QB Miles Kendrick was able to run for 50 yards and two touchdowns. Cordeiro should have a big game. But UNLV QB Brumfield is pretty good too. This could easily be a game where both teams score 30-plus points. The Over is 15-1 in the Rebels’ last 16 Friday games and cashed last week against New Mexico. The offenses are better than the defenses in this one, so let’s play accordingly. 10* |
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10-05-22 | SMU v. Central Florida UNDER 63.5 | Top | 19-41 | Win | 100 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
This game was supposed to be played last Saturday, then Sunday, but Hurricane Ian pushed it back to Wednesday night. SMU is 2-2 after suffering two straight losses while UCF is 3-1 after a win over Georgia Tech. Both offenses are potent in their own ways (SMU - passing, UCF - rushing), but I believe we’re in for a surprisingly “low-scoring” game tonight. By “low-scoring,” I mean Under is the play here.
UCF only racked up 333 total yards against a bad Georgia Tech team in its last game. Take away a blocked punt return and the Golden Knights scored just one touchdown in the game. They’ll mainly look to run the ball in this game, which means the clock is going to keep moving and that’s friendly to the Under cashing.
Now SMU is a pass-heavy offense. But they are likely to encounter some resistance from a UCF defense that has not allowed more than 20 points in any contest this year. The Golden Knights are giving up just 13.5 points/game. I do expect them to allow a season-high tonight, but not enough where this game goes Over.
Only one of UCF’s four games so far would have eclipsed tonight’s total and that was the opener vs. FCS South Carolina State where the Knights hung 56 on the board themselves. We won’t see that kind of offensive effort from them here, trust me. Against their two toughest foes - Louisville and Georgia Tech - the offense has produced just three total offensive touchdowns. This is the highest O/U line for any UCF game this season.
Similarly, only one of SMU’s previous four games would have made it past tonight’s O/U line. That was the last one, against TCU, and we all saw (against Oklahoma) how good the Horned Frogs offense is. Play the Under. 10* |
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10-03-22 | Rams v. 49ers UNDER 42.5 | Top | 9-24 | Win | 100 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
MNF week 4 brings us the next installment in the Rams/49ers’ rivalry. So what has the home team done well to date? Sterling defense in all three games; they’ve limited points and yards, have a great pass defense, and solid run defense. The 49ers are also very good in time of possession. One caveat; they have lost Trent Williams for this week. Their rush offense has been solid as well, although it did stumble vs Denver. The big question on pass defense, is how much can Jimmy G improve after a terrible effort against a very tough Broncos pass defense. The Rams’ defense has been solid against the run but has given up plenty of pass yards and is just average in Qb pressures. Will Garoppolo break out in Week 4? I don’t see it, although he does have a fine record against the Rams. We know what Stafford is capable of, but he has only had middling results so far, including 5 interceptions. He had a good effort against the Cardinals last week, but faces a much tougher defensive beast on Monday. Stafford and the Rams’ 30th ranked run game were stymied by the Bills’ defense, which is similar in make-up to the 49ers’. My conclusion: neither team gets very many points for very different reasons. Take the Under on Monday. . |
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09-30-22 | UTSA v. Middle Tennessee State UNDER 65 | Top | 45-30 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
Here’s an interesting game in Conference USA as last year’s conference champs (UTSA) are laying a small number to a team that just blew out Miami FL on the road last week, Middle Tennessee.
Going back to last season, UTSA has seen eight straight games go Over the total. But I’m thinking differently here. The number has been bet up and is now higher than any of the Roadrunners’ previous three games vs. FBS foes this season. Note they had two games go to overtime, one of which (37-35 loss to Houston) would not have gone Over without the extra time.
Middle Tennessee just put up 500 yards of offense in Coral Gables and there was really nothing misleading about that 45-31 upset last week where they came in as 25.5-point underdogs. But remember this is the same Blue Raiders team that scored just 7 points in the season opener vs. James Madison with only 119 total yards.
The 408 passing yards we saw from MTSU quarterback Chase Cunningham last week seems like an anomaly. He had not thrown for more than 266 in any of the first three games, all of which were against lesser competition. And it’s not like the Blue Raiders ran the ball well in any of those games. They’ve averaged only 75 yards rushing in the three FBS games. The UTSA offense will have to be fearful of a Middle Tennessee’s defense that has forced nine turnovers in the last three games. UTSA is long overdue for the Under to hit, especially with this being a higher number than all but one of those last eight games. 10* |
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09-30-22 | Tulane v. Houston UNDER 55 | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
Houston is one of just eight FBS teams to have played four games and have all of them go Over the total. But, if you were an Over bettor in any of those four games, you got a little lucky. The opener vs. UTSA went to triple overtime. The game at Texas Tech went to double overtime. They let Kansas start two eventual TD drives inside the 25-yard line. There was a late fumble return for a TD against Rice.
Now in the case of the last two games, the Over would have still hit even without the randomness. But certainly a case can be made that Houston games shouldn’t be this high-scoring. I think we’re likely to see the scoring come to an abrupt halt this week when the Cougars host Tulane, a team that has yet to allow more than 336 yards in a game all season. The Green Wave defense gives up just 11.8 points/game!
Tulane has certainly had an interesting last two weeks. They upset Kansas State on the road but then fell at home to Southern Miss. Neither game was high-scoring with the Green Wave offense averaging just 20.5 points.
They did allow an interception return for a TD last week, which was the difference in the game. So really, Tulane’s defense has only given up 40 points in four games. There seems to be a lot wrong with Houston at the moment, particularly along the offensive line, and I don’t see that being fixed against this great Tulane defense which is fourth in the nation against the pass. Time for the Cougars to go Under. 9* |
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09-29-22 | Utah State v. BYU OVER 60 | Top | 26-38 | Win | 100 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
Utah State is sitting at 0-4 ATS and 4-0 to the Under after four games. Obviously, they will not fail to cover AND go Under in every game this season. Which of these streaks are more likely to end Thursday night against BYU? I think it’s the Under streak. BYU should score a ton tonight, but look for Utah State to get their “fair share” as well.
BYU is a big favorite here, for good reason. The #19 ranked Cougars did get blown out in Oregon two weeks ago, but also hold a Top 25 win against Baylor here in Provo. Last week marked the second time in four games that the offense gained over 500 total yards. QB Hall, looking very much like a NFL prospect, has topped 300 yards passing in two straight games and is completing 71.4% of his passes this season.
The Utah State defense has given up an average of 41.3 points the last three games. While one of those came against Alabama, the other two opponents were Weber State and UNLV and both of those teams scored 34. I would not be surprised if BYU scored 40 in this game.
But Utah State should move the ball as well. The Aggies had 421 yards last week against UNLV, but shot themselves in the foot with six turnovers. That was after turning it over four times the previous week. QB Logan Bonner was good last year, setting program records with 3,628 yards and 36 touchdowns. So I’m a little perplexed as to why he’s struggled so much (especially with turnovers) these first four weeks. The BYU defense has given up 20 or more in every game this season. I’ve got USU eclipsing that number Thursday night. This number has come down, but I’m liking the value on the Over, which has hit each of the last four times BYU has been off an ATS loss (did not cover -21.5 vs. Wyoming last week). 10* |
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09-24-22 | Vanderbilt v. Alabama UNDER 59.5 | Top | 3-55 | Win | 100 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
The current 40.5-point spread for this game, if it holds, would be the largest for any SEC game going back to 1996. I have no interest in playing the spread, but the total did jump out to me.
Vanderbilt is 4-0 to the Over this year, starting with a 63-10 win over Hawaii. From there, the Commodores have beaten Elon 42-31, lost to Wake Forest 45-25 and then bounced back last week with a 38-28 come from behind win over Northern Illinois.
The Commies are putting up 42.0 points/game. Tonight in Tuscaloosa, they won’t even put up half that number.
The Alabama defense that Vandy is running into Saturday has allowed just 26 points - total - in three games and 19 of that came from Texas, a game that was played in Austin. The last two times these teams met, Vandy was shut out both times. Granted, those games were played in 2011 and 2017, but it’s not like the talent discrepancy has gotten any closer. Look for the Crimson Tide to completely shut down the Vanderbilt offense and not hang 50+ themselves. Nick Saban and the coaching staff, no matter what they say publicly, care far more about next week’s game at Arkansas. 10* |
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09-24-22 | Rice v. Houston UNDER 52 | Top | 27-34 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 46 m | Show |
Over the last two weeks, both of these teams have been involved in a game that went Over the total, but shouldn’t have.
Two weeks ago Houston faced Texas Tech. The game went to overtime tied 20-20. That was after Texas Tech kicked the game-tying FG with three seconds left. From there, both offenses got on track and it ended up being a 33-30 final (Houston lost), just clearing the O/U line of 62.5.
Last week, Rice upset Louisiana 33-21 as an 11.5 point home underdog. The total closed at 52. If not for an early pick-six by Louisiana, that game would not have gone Over. Rice’s defense played shockingly well, holding the Ragin Cajuns to 175 total yards and just nine first downs. One of the other Louisiana touchdowns came about after a turnover that set them up inside the red zone.
The Owls offense had a lot of big plays in that game and I do not think they’ll be able to hit those with such great frequency this week. Also, Houston shouldn’t have given up 48 points last week to Kansas. Two of the Jayhawks’ touchdown drives began inside the UH 25-yard line. Even though the Over is a combined 6-0 for these two squads in 2022, the market is expecting the opposite result this week. So am I. Even with the number coming down several points, Under is the play here. 10* |
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09-23-22 | Nevada v. Air Force OVER 45.5 | Top | 20-48 | Win | 100 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
It’s back to back Friday night games for Air Force, who lost outright last week, on the road to Wyoming by a score of 17-14. As I did note in my analysis for that game, the Falcons’ high-powered rushing attack had been stymied in the past by Wyoming. It was “deja vu all over again” as AF ran for just 171 yards on 40 attempts in Laramie where they are now 0-4 L4 visits.
This week’s opponent, Nevada, has also played AF “tough” in the past as well. While the Falcons have the 4-2 SU edge as Mt West rivals, the last five meetings have all been one-score games with four of those decided by three points or less. Last year’s game went to OT with Air Force winning 41-39.
I think that after the debacle against Wyoming last week, the Air Force offense gets back on track here. Let’s not forget that the Falcons scored 89 points in their first two games of the season or that they have gone for 40+ in five of those last six games against Nevada.
And while Nevada has been a tough opponent for AF in the past, the Wolf Pack aren’t very good this year. The defense is young and most of the players on the field don’t have much experience defending the triple option. This is a Nevada defense that gave up 55 points to Incarnate Word, a FCS school, two weeks ago. With a low total and me looking for AF to put a lot of points on the board, I’m looking for this game to go Over. Nevada being shut out last week at Iowa was a case of facing a great defense. In their previous two games, the Wolf Pack had scored 79 points. I’d much rather bet the Over than lay the points in this game. The O/U line has been bet down and I’m seeing value at the current number. 10* |
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09-22-22 | Coastal Carolina v. Georgia State UNDER 62 | Top | 41-24 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
Coastal Carolina is 3-0, but it’s a shaky 3-0 as they barely escaped both Gardner-Webb and Buffalo. Even though QB Grayson McCall is still here and the offense is averaging 35.7 points/game, it has been nowhere near as efficient as the last two seasons. The Chanticleers are operating at a pretty slow tempo and have just five passing plays that have gone for more than 30 yards.
Georgia State is 0-3, but this is probably the best team in America without a win. Lots of miscues have cost them games against South Carolina, North Carolina and Charlotte. In the first two, the Panthers were underdogs, so you can make the case they weren’t expected to win. But against Charlotte, they were favored by almost three touchdowns.
In the loss to South Carolina, Georgia State had two special teams touchdowns go against them. Both were blocked punts. North Carolina is team that put up 60+ points against Appalachian State, so holding them to “just 35” isn’t all that bad for the Panthers’ defense. I don’t know what happened last week vs. Charlotte, other than it was a sandwich spot between two games against Power 5 opponents and this, the Sun Belt opener. But still, Georgia State should not have lost last week.
There was also a fumble return for a TD by Charlotte. So that’s three non-offensive TD’s allowed by Georgia State in three games. I’ll make the case then that the defensive numbers are not as bad as they look.
Coastal Carolina is not running the ball as effectively as they have in years past. This is the first road game for the Chanticleers and I expect the offense to struggle. The Under is 5-0 their last five road games. Georgia State is 4-1 to the Under its last five home games. Play the Under. 10* |
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09-18-22 | Patriots v. Steelers UNDER 40.5 | Top | 17-14 | Win | 100 | 37 h 7 m | Show |
Looking the Patriots and Steelers in week one, there was no joy to be seen, other than the Steelers’ pass defense. They were full marks for a 7 sack, 5 turnover day. And it wasn’t just Watt who excelled, although he will be sorely missed on Sunday. The Patriots’ run defense was also effective, limiting the Dolphins to 65 yards and 2.8 yds a carry. Their pass defense did manage 3 sacks. Neither quarterback impressed at all. Jones’ accuracy was ok but he also missed relievers badly at very critical moments. He was sacked twice and threw 1 interception. Trubinsky shouldn’t even attempt a long game. He wasn’t intercepted because he consistently overthrew his receivers, had just a 55 % completion rate and looked uncomfortable under pressure. He will likely see more pressure on Sunday. The two teams were 26th and 27th in total yards on offense last week, with a negligible and unsuccessful running game. Both teams finished under 80 total yards rushing and an average of 3.5 and 3.4 yds per carry. Where are the points going to come from on Sunday? New England only managed 7 in week one, and the Steelers’ defense accounted for most of the Steelers’ field position and 7 of their points. The answer about points is they aren’t coming, or not very many of them. Take the Patriots and Steelers to go under. |
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09-18-22 | Dolphins v. Ravens UNDER 44.5 | Top | 42-38 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
The Ravens won easily last week, but it wasn’t the most inspiring of wins. While they limited the Jets’ running game, they allowed Flacco a ton of passing yards. They did sack him three times and pressured him frequently. On offense they took advantage of good field position. Jackson threw for 3 touchdowns, but just 211 yards. He was sacked twice. The Ravens rushed for just 63 yards, and 3 yds per carry with minimal yards from Jackson himself. The Dolphins rolled over the Patriots, with a fine first outing from Tua and his top two receivers. It was all in the air, as the Dolphins ran for just 78 yards, no TDs and five first downs. The defense pretty well shut down the Patriots’ attack allowing just 270 total yards and 1 TD. The Dolphins love to blitz and thoroughly disrupted the Ravens’ offense in their meeting last year. Expect more of the same tactic until it is proven unsuccessful. Obviously the Ravens have had lots of time to develop a better strategy, but Jackson can expect plenty of pressure this week. The Dolphins are expected to be a very good defensive team this year. They won’t have to worry about much of a run game from Miami considering last week’s performance. They should pressure Tua much more than he was last week, although the number of yards given up to Flacco is disconcerting. The Dolphins have the injury bug with their offensive line., making the Ravens’ job slightly easier. It is hard to pick a clear victor so I am looking to the total. This could be more of a defensive battle than might be expected. Take the total to go under. 9*! |
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09-17-22 | Kansas v. Houston UNDER 58.5 | Top | 48-30 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 47 m | Show |
The Over is 2-0 for Houston football this season with an average of 67.5 points scored in the two games. But this is highly misleading. There have been five overtimes in the two games, a 37-35 win at UTSA and a 33-30 loss at Texas Tech. This week the Cougars open the home schedule against a Kansas team that is off a couple of strong offensive showings. Can’t remember the last time the Jayhawks have posted back to back 50+ point efforts, but that’s the situation here. Again though, it’s a little misleading.
It was a very rare two touchdowns in OT from Kansas last week. After they scored to take the 49-42 lead, they returned an INT for a TD to make it 55. That was after WVU forced OT with a TD in the final minute of regulation.
The Houston-Texas Tech game probably shouldn’t have gone to OT either. The Cougars returned an INT for a TD in the fourth quarter, then each team made a FG in the final minute of regulation. With both teams coming off games that ended up “misleadingly” high-scoring, I’ll back the Under here. Even with five overtimes, the Houston offense is only averaging 350 yards per game. The Kansas offense certainly won’t continue putting up the kinds of numbers we’ve seen in the first two games. 10* |
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09-10-22 | Tennessee v. Pittsburgh OVER 64.5 | Top | 34-27 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 17 m | Show |
We’ve got a Top 25 matchup in Pittsburgh Saturday afternoon with the 17th ranked Panthers hosting #24 Tennessee. Despite Pitt being at home and the higher ranked team, they are the underdog here. The bloom really came off their rose with less than stellar showing against West Virginia in the opener. It was a 31-24 win, but the Panthers needed a late pick-six and did not cover the spread.
Tennessee did cover the spread in its first game, easily defeating Ball State by a score of 59-10. The Volunteers had 38 points by halftime and 52 by the end of the third quarter. Eight different receivers caught a pass in the first half. With last year’s top rusher Jabari Smith back and four returning offensive linemen, the Vols will be able to run the ball effectively here as well.
Cause for concern if you’re a Pitt fan - not only did Tennessee average more than five yards/carry last season and West Virginia just went for 5.6 yards/carry.
No team in America played “faster” than Tennessee did last year. Under Josh Heupel, they averaged 3.12 plays per minute! This is what I like to see when betting the Over. No one thinks Kedon Slovis is going to be able to “replace” Kenny Pickett at Pitt, but the USC transfer threw for 300 yards against WVU. Over the course of the game, the Panthers’ offense started playing faster as well. This game should be a shootout! 9* |
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09-10-22 | South Carolina v. Arkansas OVER 53 | Top | 30-44 | Win | 100 | 28 h 52 m | Show |
South Carolina needed TWO blocked punt returns for touchdowns to get to 35 points last week against Georgia State. But the Gamecocks’ offense should be on full display this week at Arkansas, who could be down two defensive starters. Like South Carolina, the Razorbacks won their season opener. But in defeating Cincinnati 31-24 as a 6.5-point favorites, Arkansas gave up plenty of yards (438) and honestly was fortunate not to allow more points. Six different times, the Bearcats offense crossed midfield only to come up empty. They also started a drive inside the Arkansas’ five-yard line and wound up settling for a field goal.
But I was impressed with the Arkansas’ offense, specifically QB Jefferson, who accounted for four touchdowns last Saturday. He put up 9.3 yards per attempt last season, so a strong showing was really not that much of a surprise. Also, the Arkansas’ rushing attack seems like it won’t skip a beat, despite Trelon Smith leaving.
South Carolina’s defense was pretty bad at stopping the run in 2021 and with only one starter back along the defensive line, they figure to struggle to stop Arkansas from moving the chains. But as I stated at the top, look for a better showing from the SC offense in this game. Oklahoma transfer Spencer Rattler has a great set of skill position players surrounding him. Look for the Gamecocks to take advantage of a possibly depleted Arkansas secondary. 10* |
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09-05-22 | Clemson v. Georgia Tech UNDER 51 | Top | 41-10 | Push | 0 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
Two years ago, Clemson hung 73 points on Georgia Tech in what was utter humiliation for the Yellow Jackets. But last year, the game ended just 14-8 in Clemson’s favor. That was an early sign that it might be a “down year” for Dabo’s Tigers, who lost three of their first seven games.
But Clemson ended 2021 on a 6-0 run and now seems primed to have a bounce back season. The defense was NOT the problem last season (only 14.8 points/game allowed) and should be one of the very best in the country for ‘22.
Meanwhile, it’s been a pretty ugly three seasons for Geoff Collins at Georgia Tech. Especially when facing Clemson. Transitioning away from the triple option (to a spread offense) has not gone all that well in Atlanta. Incredibly, the Yellow Jackets have scored a combined 29 points in the last three meetings with Clemson. I’m not expecting them to score a ton tonight either.
Therefore, I’ll ride with the Under here. Georgia Tech’s offensive line is young and two of the top three receivers from last year are gone. I don’t see them doing well against what is perhaps the nation’s best offensive line. Clemson’s offense wasn’t that great last year and I don’t see them scoring 40+ points tonight. Play the Under. |
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09-04-22 | Florida State v. LSU UNDER 51.5 | Top | 24-23 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
The Brian Kelly era gets underway at LSU Sunday night against Florida State. While this is the Tigers’ first game of the season, FSU played last week and won 47-7 over Duquesne. I wouldn’t put much stock in that victory though as it came against a FCS team. Mike Norvell, entering his fourth year at Tallahassee, still has a lot of work to do.
This game is in New Orleans, so that’s an edge to LSU, even though they’d prefer it being in Baton Rouge. Kelly has won 40 straight games when favored. That includes a 41-38 win over Florida State in the opening game last season, when Kelly was still at Notre Dame.
How much better LSU will be in 2022 remains to be seen. But we know they will be healthier. Their 74 starts lost to injury last season were the most in the entire country. Jayden Daniels, one of 19 transfers that Kelly brought in, is expected to be the starting QB tonight. But my eyes are more focused on the Tigers defense, which should be a lot better this year.
Yes, it was “just a FCS opponent.” But FSU giving only seven points was encouraging. The Seminoles have eight starters back on defense this year and I think they’ll do a good job here against an opponent breaking in a new starting quarterback. The Under is 9-4 in Florida State’s past 13 games and that’s the way I see this one going. |
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09-03-22 | Liberty v. Southern Miss UNDER 50.5 | Top | 29-27 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 53 m | Show |
Liberty has a had a couple of great season but QB Maik Willis is gone and could be a NFL starter (for the Titans) by the end of the year. For Liberty, the loss of Willis means the offense is set to take a step back in 2022. In addition to having to replace its starting QB, the Flames are further due to regress because even with Willis they overachieved. Last year they were 11th in finishing drives but only 40th in success rate. I think you’ll see the Flames stall out more, or having to settle for field goals. Seven defensive starters and the top 10 tacklers are back for Southern Miss. So this unit should be much improved. At least that’s the hope in Hattiesburg as the Golden Eagles move to the Sun Belt Conference this season after going 3-9 in 2021 (won their last two games). But the USM offense, even with RB Frank Gore, is a major question mark. It was held below 20 points nine times in 2021. A x-factor in this game is that the new Southern Miss offensive coordinator previously served as Liberty’s offensive line coach. So he’ll bring over a familiarity with the opponent. This will be nothing like the last time these teams met (2020), a 56-35 Liberty win. 10* |
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09-02-22 | Temple v. Duke UNDER 51 | Top | 0-30 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
Both Duke and Temple went 3-9 last season and there have been coaching changes for the 2022 season.
David Cutcliffe retired after 13 seasons at Duke and was replaced by former A&M and Notre Dame defensive coordinator Mike Elko. His task is a challenging one - rebuild a Blue Devils’ defense that was positively awful last season, giving up 518 yards and over 40 points per game.
Over on the Temple sideline, former Texas run game coordinator Stan Drayton is the new man for the job. Expect a renewed focus on the rushing attack from the Owls, which probably isn’t a bad idea considering QB D’Wan Mathis is pretty inconsistent and completed just 59% of his passes last season. At one point, it appeared that Mathis was set to transfer out of the program.
I do expect Duke’s defense to improve under Elko, if for no other reason that it can’t get any worse. Temple doesn’t really have the kind of offense to take advantage anyway. There were nine games last season where the Owls scored 14 points or less. Don’t look for Duke’s offense to do much of anything. The Blue Devils averaged only 22.8 points a year ago and have lost their starting QB, top RB and top WR. Take the Under here. |
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08-27-22 | Wyoming v. Illinois OVER 43.5 | Top | 6-38 | Win | 100 | 77 h 41 m | Show |
I like the Wyoming-Illinois opener to go Over the total. This is a very low total by 2022 College Football standards.
Wyoming’s offense was hard to get a read on last year. There were six games where they didn’t score 20 points. But there were also four where they scored 44 or more. What we know heading into this season is that the Cowboys like to run the ball. They averaged the 16th most yards per carry in all of CFB last year.
Titus Swen will be the lead RB this year and should move the sticks against an Illini defense that won’t be able to match last year’s surprising numbers. But the problem for Wyoming will be their own defense, which lost a ton of talent on the backend, including all four starters in the secondary and both linebackers.
The Pokes are one of the least experienced teams in the land entering this season and the loss of defensive talent is a big reason for that. Illinois is bringing its top three rushers back from last year, one of which (Chase Brown) averaged 5.9 yards per carry. 10* Brett Bielema’s new QB is Tommy DeVito, who transferred in from Syracuse. I expect the Illini to be much better on the offensive side in 2020. Love the Over here. |
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02-13-22 | Rams v. Bengals UNDER 48.5 | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 75 h 1 m | Show |
Looking at the Rams/Bengals matchup, with two top QBs and their wide variety of excellent receiving options, it is easy to imagine a high-scoring result. I am not seeing this result, and have held off to get the highest total available. I think this game is going under, and here is why. The Rams defense has been successful at limiting points (18 avg. L3), rushing yards, and has improved recently in yards allowed in the air. They have limited opposing pass offenses to a short pass game, and have limited pass TDs. They are 7th overall in sacks. Burrow has been largely immune to pass pressure, but he won’t be as free and easy to wander vs the Rams’ formidable pass rush. Will they shut Burrow down? Unlikely. Will they slow him down? Very likely. One need only look back to the Bengals/Titans game when the Titans scored only 19 points with Burrow sacked an astounding 9 times. The Bengals may also be forced into more of a run situation on Sunday, slowing the game down. They have a very viable option in Mixon, but the Rams defense has been outright stingy vs the run. Stafford may have his hands full as well. The Bengals defense is tough against the run, but has been doing the job against the pass as well. They had four sacks against Mahomes last week and adapted well in the second half to control him effectively. They’ve only given up an average of 19 points a game in their last three games. Their QB pressure stats, other than actual sacks, are actually better than the Rams’. The Rams have essentially abandoned the run lately, banking on Stafford, but a hurried Stafford is not without peril. Could we also see more of a running game from Akers and the Rams as well? That is my take on total. The over/under line has been pretty static, but hunt for the right number, and take this game to surprise a lot of people and go under. |
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01-30-22 | 49ers v. Rams UNDER 46 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 29 h 8 m | Show |
The Rams face the 49ers for the third time this season, and many reputations rest on the outcome. The two defenses will have a huge impact on this game. Yes, Stafford is on a roll, but the 49ers are tough on quarterbacks, averaging 5 sacks a game in the last three games, are 6th in passing yards allowed this year, and hold opposing Qbs to a rating of 83 over the last three weeks. A rattled Stafford is not nearly the same quarterback. He is not immune to throwing the ball away. Should the Rams look to the running game, it doesn’t get any easier. The 49ers have only allowed 69 rush yards on average in their last three games. What can we expect from the 49ers’ offense on Sunday? Probably a concentrated effort to run the ball, slowing the game down, and keeping Stafford off the field. It worked for them in their last win against the Rams. Their Qb, Garappolo has not impressed lately, with a QB rating of only 79 in his last three games. The 49ers appear to have more faith in their running game. A note to bear in mind. Their double threat magician Deebo Samuel, terrific lately, may not be 100%. It would be a mistake to underestimate the Rams’ defense. They are strong against the run; fifth and improving in rush yards/game and rush yards/attempt. They are equally tough on Qbs, holding opposing Qbs to a rating of 71 over the last three games. The 49ers are a very good road team, and have dominated the Rams for some time. I am not confident in their ability to outscore the Rams, but I do think they will hold the final score down. I am wagering on the total to go under. |
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01-30-22 | Bengals v. Chiefs OVER 54 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -112 | 78 h 46 m | Show |
Bengals vs Chiefs It is hard to see this as anything other than a shootout. Mahomes, Burrow and their various stellar targets appear to be at peak form. The Bills, who possess much better defense than the Bengals, could not control Mahomes and the Chiefs. The Bengals are 26th in pass yards against, and 8th but sinking badly in rushing yards allowed and sacks. It is hard to imagine them in any way controlling Mahomes and Co. The Bengals beat the Chiefs at their own game 4 weeks ago, and the number of points given up by KC to high-octane pass offenses this year is very high. Burrow takes a lickin’ and still keeps kickin’ every week and one of these days the Bengals lack of an O-line is going to bite them. It may not be this week as KC is only 29th in sacks. I’m looking forward to this game. Who knows, it may even surpass the Bills/Chiefs barn-burner last week. I do think the points will pile up in a big way. Take the over. |
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01-23-22 | Rams v. Bucs OVER 47.5 | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 32 h 5 m | Show |
The Rams face the Buccaneers for the second time this season, only this time it is for most the marbles. Not that it really matters at this point, but Tampa Bay has been lights out as a home team, and the Rams are a very good on the road this year. With Brady and Stafford at QB, both these teams are going to score points, and while the teams may run the ball, it will be to set up to two very good pass offenses. That said, the Bucs and Rams have good news on the rush offense side. RB Fournette will be healthy for the Bucs and the Rams have Akers back for only the 2nd time this season. Neither pass defense is in the top echelon, although the Rams did shut the Cardinals down effectively last weekend. Brady and Stafford will likely face more pressure than they are used to. The Rams in particular, have been tough on Qbs lately, and it is still not completely clear how injury will affect the Buc’s defensive line. Not to forget that these teams are 1st and 6th in protecting their passer. Stafford has had issues with interceptions, but didn’t throw the ball away at all last week. Brady rarely throws the ball away. I can see both offenses stepping it out this weekend. Weather conditions will be fine. Look for a ton of points scored. Take the Rams and Bucs to go over the total. |
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01-22-22 | 49ers v. Packers UNDER 47.5 | Top | 13-10 | Win | 100 | 59 h 56 m | Show |
The Packers are back from their bye week, rested and at home, but I wonder just how comfortable they are with this weekend’s match-up. The 49ers’ defense is tough and improving of late. In the last 3 weeks; 4+sacks a game, rush yards against average of 75, pass yards against 189, and an average quarterback rating of 78. You get my point. The last time the Packers played a solid defense was against the Browns, with a very close 22-20 win the result. Now throw in serious low temperatures, wind, and possible snow, all elements that would suggest more of a running game. The 49ers are 7th and climbing in rushing yards, with their Deebo/Mitchell combo. The Packers can also run, although not quite as effectively. They just can’t stop the run (31st in rush yards against). Worst case scenario for the Packers is the Giants coming in and running the ball all the cold day long. I am not saying we won’t see any magic from Rodgers, just less of it. If there weren’t injury issues with a couple of 49ers players, this would be a wager on San Francisco. All things considered, I like the total in this game. Take the 49ers and Packers to go under the total. |
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01-16-22 | Eagles v. Bucs UNDER 46 | Top | 15-31 | Push | 0 | 30 h 31 m | Show |
The Eagles are not going to be scared off their run-focused game plan easily; the Buccaneers’ powerful run defense is not quite what it was last year or even earlier in the season. The Bucs haven’t faced a quarterback who runs as well as Hurts does lately, and the Eagles have the best run offense in the league, with two solid RBs who will figure into the picture. Still, Tampa does not give points up easily. Fifth in the league in points allowed, they do allow passing yards, but not so many points, and do pressure the opposing quarterback very well. The Eagles have been successful at limiting pass and run yards this year, but between the Eagles’ lack of QB pressure, and the Buc’s very good O-line, Brady will likely be a force to be reckoned with. Throwing into the wind and the rain will likely have some impact on Brady’s game, and the Buccaneers are far less effective moving the football on the ground. I like the total in this game. The Buccaneers have some key players who are still banged up. The weather conditions suggest a slower than usual game, and possibly more of a running game from the Buccaneers. The Eagles may find points hard to come by on Saturday, and may have a little success limiting Brady. The total seems high in this situation. Take the Eagles and Buccaneers to go under on Sunday. |
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01-09-22 | Chargers v. Raiders OVER 48.5 | Top | 32-35 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
This “win or done” matchup features two very good quarterbacks and a pair of often unimpressive offenses. The Raiders have been tough to score on lately. Their pass defense has been surprisingly good in their last three games, but they haven’t faced a strong pass-first offense since the Chiefs, who badly mauled them. The Chargers, as good as their offense has been, give up a ton of points, and often to unlikely teams (41 points to Houston). They also struggled against the Chiefs. Both these teams defend poorly in the red zone. Herbert is the wonder boy these days but he is still relatively inexperienced. It will be interesting to see how he plays in a the Raiders’ loud and hostile stadium in playoff-like conditions. Carr is very much the veteran and at home. How is this one going to play out? I think Carr and the Raiders will put up points against a weak and regressing Chargers defense. I also think that the Raiders will not be able to handle the ‘Herbert and Ekeler’ duo as easily as their last three opponents. Tough call on the winner, but look for plenty of points. Take the Chargers and Raiders to go over the total. |
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01-09-22 | Colts v. Jaguars UNDER 44 | Top | 11-26 | Win | 100 | 39 h 1 m | Show |
The Colts really need this win, and will be all in. The Jaguars? Who knows? They've played the Colts tough, with an embarrassingly ( for the Colts) long streak of home victories, and with a relatively close game earlier in the season. There is also their ranking and the #1 draft pick situation to consider. I am sure that the Colts will win this game, but by how much is the question. The Colts don't need to grind the Jaguars into the ground, so playing full out for the full 60 minutes may not be necessary. The Jaguars don't put up a ton of points, and the Colts' offensive numbers have regressed somewhat. Where the Colts have improved is that they are tougher to score against. They are a run-first offense, and it would make no sense to change the game plan for the sake of running up the score. Of all the options in this game, I am most comfortable with a lower total. I am wagering the Colts lead comfortably, then shut the Jaguars down. Take the UNDER today. |
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01-08-22 | Chiefs v. Broncos UNDER 45 | Top | 28-24 | Loss | -107 | 27 h 40 m | Show |
The Chiefs meet the Broncos in a very meaningful game for K.C., but not really for Denver. After limiting opposing teams' offense in the extreme, the Chiefs have given up two high totals in three games, and seen their defensive stats plummet. As much as the Chiefs need a win, this is also their last chance to right the ship on defense before the post season. The good news is that they face Drew Lock, rather than Burrow or Herbert. While this is not a really meaningful game for the Broncos other than Lock, it is a home game, so look for some effort. The Denver defense stumbled last week but has held most teams to under 20 points, or in the case of the Chiefs last time out, 22 points. Their offense has stumbled for more than a week, averaging only 12 points for the last 3 games. Both teams appear to be over the worst of covid, touch wood, but the Chiefs are missing their best RB, and the Broncos, their QB and other significant players. Look for the Chiefs to focus on defense in this game. Look for a return to the tight defense they showed for much of the year, with the Broncos struggling to put points on the board. If the Broncos do play all out, they have the potential to slow the Chiefs' potentially explosive offense. I am wagering on the total to go under. |
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01-03-22 | Browns v. Steelers UNDER 42 | Top | 14-26 | Win | 100 | 20 h 11 m | Show |
Both the Browns and the Steelers are teetering on the edge of a playoff-less season. Who ever loses on Monday is finished. The Browns are at their healthiest in some time. They have one of the best running backs in the business. The Steelers rank dead last in rush yards allowed and yards per attempt. Browns’ quarterback is playing wounded and it shows in his passing stats. Look for the Browns to deliver a steady diet of Nick Chubb and slow this game down. The Pittsburgh defense excels in sacks, passing yards allowed, and red zone defense, which with a rush-first opponent like the Browns, plays to a low total. There is a fair bit of hype about this being Roethlisberger’s swansong, but lets face it; he is retiring for a reason. While he is still accurate and doesn’t turn the ball over, his yards per game and yards/attempt have dropped. He is a bit of a sitting duck back there, and has been sacked with regularity this season. The flip side of Big Ben’s retirement is that there are a whole lot of Browns players who would like to make his last home game a memorable one, with a little payback. Pittsburgh has been running the ball more but they are up against a very stiff Browns run offense. The Browns are very solid against the pass as well, so don’t look for the Steelers, lower than average in points scored per game, to pile up the points. I like the total in this game. Look for a result similar to the Titans/Steelers. Take the under. |
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01-01-22 | Oklahoma State v. Notre Dame UNDER 46 | Top | 37-35 | Loss | -110 | 96 h 45 m | Show |
Oklahoma State/Notre Dame Oklahoma State went 11-2. The Cowboys would ultimately go on to lose to Baylor in the Big 12 Title game. Normally OKS is known for its high-octane offense, but they held opponents to just 17 points per game, which ranks seventh in the country. The Cowboys were ranked second in the country on allowed third down conversions, conceding just 25 percent of such instances. They also led the nation in sacks with 55. The offense took a step back this sesaon though, entering averaging 30 PPG, which ranks 50th. QB Spencer Sanders had a pedestrian season, throwing for 2,468 yards, but with a 16:14 TD:INT ratio. Brian Kelly has already left Notre Dame and several key players have opted out. Marcus Freeman is the new coach. Kyren Williams has left for the NFL. He was the team's leading rusher and had the second most TD's only behidn QB Jack Coan. The Irish rank ninth overall on the defensive end, conceding 18.3 PPG. Many new faces, but these defenses are elite. Each ranks in the Top 10. Expect them to be the main story line in tomorrow's summaries. 10* BOWL TOTAL OF YEAR. |
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12-26-21 | Steelers v. Chiefs UNDER 45.5 | Top | 10-36 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
Big Ben is no longer the formidable opponent he once was, but he is still the only show in town as far as the Steelers’ offense goes. The pass game is definitely middle of the pack, but the Steelers just don’t run. Period. They are 31st in the NFL in rush yards, and 30th in rush 1st downs. They don’t defend the run well either; their rush defense is 31st on average, and abysmal in their last two games. What the Steelers do well on defense is defend against the pass (12th rated and improving) and get to opposing Qbs (2nd and improving). How does this stack up against the Chiefs? The Chiefs can run, and will if pressed, but it is usually a second choice. The Steelers’ offense may shift the Chiefs to more of a run-first style of offense, so likely no 413 yards passing this week and maybe a lot less points scored. Other than last week, the Chiefs have held opposing teams to less than 9 points a game over a 5 game stretch. They are a “bend but don’t break” defense. Roethlisberger may have some success against them but I don’t see him stacking up the points. Considering the matchup and the Chiefs’ ability to keep the score down, I think the game’s total is high. Take the Steelers and Chiefs to go under the total. |
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12-25-21 | Browns v. Packers UNDER 46.5 | Top | 22-24 | Win | 100 | 4 h 33 m | Show |
The Browns have had a tough season to date but are starting to get healthier. One thing that hasn't suffered lately is their defense, giving up less than 16 points on average over their last four games. The Browns are in desperation mode, and while you can't expect Rodgers and Co. to take it easy today, they know where they are headed already. The Browns have one of the very best running backs in the league and the Packers can be run against. The best way to control Rodgers is to keep him off the field. The Browns are tough against opposing QBs, both in yards allowed and in pressuring QBs. The Packers have not protected Rodgers particularily well lately. Mayfield may be back today but hasn't practised, and the Browns are very poor at scoring on the road. Look for this game to produce less points that expected. Take the total to go under.. |
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12-25-21 | Ball State v. Georgia State OVER 50.5 | Top | 20-51 | Win | 100 | 30 h 28 m | Show |
Georgia State/Ball State While both teams looked decent defensively at times down the stretch of the regular season, that side of the ball was each their weak points. Georgia State is 7-5. It's coming off a 37-10 win over Troy. QB Darren Grainger is a dual-threat that finished with 1,512 yards passing, 16 TD's and four INT's, while also rushing for 524 yards (4.3 YPC), and two rushing TD's. Defensively though they allow 27.7 PPG. Drew Pitt and the Cardinals will look to take advantage. Pitt finished with 2,248 yards passing, 17 TD's and finve IT's this year (also had 150 rushing yards.) However, like their opponent today, the Cardinals weakness this season was on the defensive side of the ball where they allowed 26.5 PPG on average (the Bulls were 9 of 18 on third down in their last game and they converted their only fourth down attempt as well.) Expect these two well-rested sides to push the pace from the start. This one flies over the number. 10* TOTAL COACHES CORNER on over. |
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12-23-21 | 49ers v. Titans UNDER 44 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
The Titans are up against a very hot 49ers team with first place in the AFC south now in jeopardy. They have not been scoring enough points to win with any regularity. Off a disappointing loss, and with far too many turnovers lately, is there any likelihood that the Titans can bounce back? The Titans are still a rush-first offense and are running for yards with success, but they are up against a solid 49ers rush defense. Their pass offense is very weak, down 80 yards per game over their last 3 starts when compared to their season average. It is uncertain if one or both of WRs Brown or Jones will be starting this week. Tannehill has been sacked 37 times this year and will likely spend more time on his back as the 49ers are 10th in the league and improving in sacks. The 49ers have seen growth in their rush offense lately but are up against a very tough Titans rush defense that has been lights out in their last three starts. Garoppolo has silenced a few of his critics with some decent numbers lately. He is accurate and has cut down on hi turnovers. The 49ers have protected him well this season. Of note, the 49ers are best in the league in red zone scoring %. That said, the Titans’ pass defense has been much improved lately, allowing fewer yards and Tds against. Their sack totals have also picked up. Given their recent success, the 49ers have not faced a really tough defense lately. The Titans are hard to score against, but are only averaging 15 points per game over the last 4 games, and I don’t expect a significant improvement this week. Take the 49ers and Titans to go UNDER THE TOTAL ON THURSDAY |
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12-20-21 | Vikings v. Bears OVER 44 | Top | 17-9 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
Vikings/Bears The Bears have scored 52 points in their last two games, a huge improvement over their lowly 17 point scored average. The Bears have a solid run game, but the improvement has come in the passing game, with good increases in passing yards and points in the last three games. Unfortunately the Bears defense, already 28th rated, is much worse over their last three games. The Vikings haven’t had a low scoring game since week 4. They are 10th and climbing in points scored, with an average of 30 points in their last three games. Like the Bears, their points allowed, never low, has climbed to 29 over the last three games. On the field, the Vikings defense is 26th and 27th rated against the pass and run respectively, but they are top in the league at applying QB pressure. Luckily for the Bears, Field has handled the blitz well and has the advantage of scrambling impressively. The Bears defense struggle against the run but generally handle the pass well. The Vikings put up monster numbers with the run offense last week and have shown improvement well above average with their run game lately. Against Cousins, the Bears face a well protected, dynamic, and accurate QB, with high TD totals and low interception and sack numbers. Cousins could very well pick the Bears offense apart, just as Rogers did last week. Lets see, both teams are scoring more on offense and allowing more on defense. It doesn’t take rocket science to see the potential for a high scoring affair. This game is a definite total over selection |
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10-04-21 | Raiders v. Chargers OVER 51.5 | Top | 14-28 | Loss | -101 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
Las Vegas Raiders @ LA Chargers Entering this game, the Raiders are 3-0 with significant victories against the Ravens and the Steelers. They also beat the Dolphins in a thriller last week. In each of those games, they scored at least 26 points with an average of 30ppg. The Raiders have also seen the total go OVER in 8 of their last 9 games dating back to last season against AFC opponets. For the Chargers, they'll come in very confident after beating Mahomes and the Chiefs last week. Herbert has looked excellent so far and his top 2 WRs Keenan Allen and Mike Williams have also looked very strong. As long as Ekeler keeps providing with his rushing and catching, the Chargers will definitely score a lot in this one. Last year, when these two teams played (twice of course,) both games ended with 57 points. I expect another game with a similar, if not higher number here tonight. Take the OVER. |
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09-26-21 | Packers v. 49ers OVER 50 | Top | 30-28 | Win | 100 | 29 h 47 m | Show |
Green Bay Packers @ San Fransisco 49ers Things didn’t look so good for Aaron Rodgers after week 1. But he definitely showed the world that he’s not done yet after last weeks performance against the Lions. They scored an easy 35 points and definitely could have scored more in the win. This week, Rodgers returns to his hometown and I believe he is bound to do something special yet again. Off the win against the Eagles, the Niners are now 2-0 to start the year. Last week they didn’t score that much. But they looked strong offensively and could have put up more than they did. In week one they went way OVER the total and I expect another high scoring game. Both teams are really good offensively and I expect a shootout in this one. Take the OVER. |
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09-20-21 | Lions v. Packers OVER 48.5 | Top | 17-35 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
Detroit @ GB. Two divisional opponents off Week 1 losses collide in Week 2. Detroit's offense actually looked quite good in last weeks' 41-33 loss to the 49ers (especially considering the way the 49ers' held the high-flying Eagles to just 11 points on their own field on Sunday after they scored 32 in their Week 1 win at Atlanta.) Jared Goff was 38 of 57 for 338 yards. Aaron Rodgers and the Packers uncharacteristically struggled in their 38-3 season-opening loss at New Orleans (interesting though, that game was played at Jacksonville instead of New Orleans because of Hurricane Ida. Traveling to Jacksonville is tough, but especially on short notice. That was a game that completely favored the Saints. New Orleans looked poor in its loss at Carolina on Sunday.) Rodgers though is going to benefit greatly from being in friendly confines and facing a poor Lions' defense which just conceded 41 points to San Francisco (which could only muster 19 in yesterday's win at Philadelphia.) Look for these experienced "gun-slingers" to garner most of the headlines in tomorrow's summaries of this contest. The play is the over. |
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09-16-21 | Giants v. Washington Football Team UNDER 41 | Top | 29-30 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 53 m | Show |
NY Giants @ Washington We played against the Giants in Week 1. They only scored 13 points. Washington wasn't much better. The Football Team managed just 16. Both games were comfortable under winners. The Giants are 9-0 to the under after an ATS loss. Giants also 6-0 to the under after allowing 350 or more yards. WFT 4-0 to the under after a loss. Twenty of the last 28 meetings have produced unders. Two struggling offenses. Two capable defenses. A low-scoring division rivalry. Take the Under. |
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09-13-21 | Ravens v. Raiders OVER 50 | Top | 27-33 | Win | 100 | 13 h 29 m | Show |
Baltimore Ravens @ Las Vegas Raiders The Thursday Night prime-time Opener between the Cowboys and the Buccaneers went well over the posted number. The Sunday Night prime-time matchup between the Rams and the Bears also sailed over the posted number. Now on Monday night we have a couple of high-scoring AFC teams read to battle it out and everything points to these high-scoring prime-time games continuing. The Ravens averaged 29.3 PPG last year. The Raiders averaged 27.1. Baltimore was one of the best defensively last season in conceding only 18.9 PPG, but the Raiders were one of the worst in allowing 29.9. The Raiders and Ravens have played over the total the last five times they've met. Expect that high-scoring streak to continue here in their first game of the 2021/22 season. The play is the over the total 10* |
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09-12-21 | Bears v. Rams UNDER 45 | Top | 14-34 | Loss | -106 | 445 h 1 m | Show |
Chicago Bears @ Los Angeles Rams Two teams that were pretty good defensively last year, and inconsistent on the offensive end collide in LA tonight. The bottom line for this one for me though is that each starts a new quarterback in a new system and I think that despite both being veteran's, that it'll take time for both Andy Dalton of the Bears and Matthew Stafford of the Rams to form chemsitry with their respective offenses. Each side will be focused on establishing the run while on offense. We can expect a heavy pass rush from each defense as well. When we consider what each of these team's game-plan will be in Week 1, we have to conclude that the under is the correct call. |
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09-11-21 | Vanderbilt v. Colorado State UNDER 51 | Top | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 102 h 17 m | Show |
Vanderbilt @ Colorado State The Commodores scored only three points in their Week 1 game. That was a very disappointing loss against East Tennessee State. Vanderbilt was favored by more than 3 touchdowns. That showed just how bad Vanderbilt really is. Scoring won't be any easier this week. The Rams were better than Vanderbilt but they weren't good either. They lost against South Dakota State, scoring only 23 points. Vanderbilt rushed for 2.7 yards per carry, CSU ran for 3.1 ypg. Commodores 4-0 to the Under L4 non-conference games. Rams 5-0 to the Under L5 vs. losing teams. Take the UNDER |
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09-04-21 | Fresno State v. Oregon OVER 63.5 | Top | 24-31 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 36 m | Show |
Fresno State @ Oregon Fans of offense are in for a treat. Fresno State averaged 32.8 ppg and 479 ypg last year. This year's offense is loaded and already scored 45 points and 538 yards against UConn its opener. Oregon has 9 returning offensive starters. They have an experienced QB, throwing to excellent receivers, playing behind an experienced offensive line. The Ducks scored more than 30 points in every game but one last year. Ducks are 6-2 to the over last eight times they faced a team with a winning record. Bulldogs are 5-1 to the over last six times they were off an ATS win. Go with the Over. |
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01-17-21 | Browns v. Chiefs UNDER 56 | Top | 17-22 | Win | 100 | 153 h 55 m | Show |
The set-up: The Browns played to a high-scoring victory on the road in Pittsburgh, but I believe they'll have a much more difficult time producing that same energy here in this difficult road venue. The Browns played terrible defensively last time out and the last thing they'll want to do here in my estimation, is to turn this into another "track meet" and try to hang with Patrick Mahomes and the defending champs on their own field. That's never going to work. It worked against Pittsburgh, but if the Browns are going to pull off another unlikely upset, they'll have to run the ball first while on offense, while hoping to win the field position battle as well. The pick: KC has an underrated defensive unit this year. It's been burned a few times, but overall the Chiefs once again exceeded their season win total and that was due in large part to an improved defensive unit. I'll point out as well that Cleveland has seen the total go "under" the number in 11 of its last 17 road games after scoring 40 or more points in a SU/ATS victory in its last outing. From my calculations, this number is indeed a tad high. This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Browns/Chiefs. |
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01-11-21 | Ohio State v. Alabama UNDER 76.5 | Top | 24-52 | Win | 100 | 225 h 34 m | Show |
The set-up: What more can be said about these two teams which literally hasn't been said a million times at this point by every talking head and so called expert out there? The strengths and weaknesses and cast of characters, including coaches, is well known even to casual College Football fans. These teams are both really similar as well as far as their numbers. Frankly, it wouldn't be too difficult to write a convincing argument for either of these teams to win and cover this contest. I'm not here to give you individual player breakdowns, as I think that's meaningless at this point. I'm here to tell you why these two teams are going to play to a lower-scoring game, instead of a higher-scoring one. The pick: The extra time off between games is going to have a bigger detrimental effect on these offenses in my opinion. This can still be a higher-scoring game, and stay "under" this sky-high total, and that's exactly what I'm expecting. These are two of the best defenses that each of these offenses has seen all year and I expect those units to be the main storylines in tomorrow's summaries. This number is too high. This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the UNDER OSU/Bama. |
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01-10-21 | Ravens v. Titans UNDER 54 | Top | 20-13 | Win | 100 | 146 h 5 m | Show |
The set-up: Baltimore is out to get revenege here against a team that it's had difficulties with over the last few years. The Titans upset the 14-1 Ravens in last year's playoffs 28-12. I'm having a hard time getting a firm read on a side in this one, but all signs point to this one being more of a "chess match," in my opinion, rather than a "shootout." And that's because I expect to see a heavy dose of the run game from each side while on offense today. The pick: These team's also faced off back on November 22nd and Tennessee managed a 30-24 victory, but that came in overtime. These are admittedly a couple of the highest-scoring teams in the league, but I'll also point out that Baltimore has seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last 12 road games in trying to revenge an OT home loss in which it allowed 30 or more points in. This number is a little high in my opinion. This is a 10* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the UNDER Ravens/Titans. |
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12-31-20 | Ball State v. San Jose State OVER 63.5 | Top | 34-13 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 11 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams come in having played to many "unders" this year. Ball State has seen the total go under in four of its last five, including two straight, while San Jose State has seen the total dip below the posted number in six of seven this year, including in its last five straight. These two non-conference opponents get ready to battle in the Arizona Bowl on Thursday afternoon and in my opinion, these trends of lower-scoring games is going to end, as I look for these two non conference opponents to open up the playbook and air this one out. The pick: Ball State averages 34.3 PPG, which ranks 26th in the nation, while the Spartans allow just 17.86 PPG, ranked 13th. San Jose State has faced some suspect competition this year though to pad those stats. Spartans' QB Nick Starkel has 16 passing touchdowns and only four interceptions. San Jose State's offense averages 30.9 PPG, so expect SJSU to keep pace with the high-flying Cardinals as well. This one has "over" written all over it. This is a 10* SUPER TOTAL on the OVER Ball State/San Jose State. |
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12-27-20 | Eagles v. Cowboys UNDER 50 | Top | 17-37 | Loss | -105 | 151 h 52 m | Show |
The set-up: The first game between these teams went well "under" the number in the Eagles' 23-9 home victory. Ben DiNiucci was under center for Dallas in that one, but Andy Dalton will be directing the Cowboys tonight. Philly has gotten a spark from rookie QB Jalen Hurts, and while many may think this'll be a classic "shootout," I expect this instead to be a very tight, lower-scoring battle. Philly's defense is definitely superior, but Dallas has come a long way in that department over the last three weeks. I expect each offense to be committed to the run throughout as well. If this was Week 10, I'd expect more of a shootout, but in this crucial end of season contest, this one has the feel of a "chess match," rather than "offensive fireworks." The pick: From a trend-based standpoint it sets up well for a lower-scoring contest, as note that Philly has seen the total go "under" in four of its last six on the road. Also note that six of these team's last eight in the series have fallen below the posted number as well. For all the reasons listed above, look for this one to fall "under" the posted number once it's all said and done. This is a 10* NFC EAST TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER Eagles/Cowboys. |
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12-26-20 | Western Kentucky v. Georgia State UNDER 56.5 | Top | 21-39 | Loss | -112 | 148 h 6 m | Show |
The set-up: WKU has one of the worst offenses in all of the FBS and the total has gone "under" in four of its last five overall. Note that ten of WKU's 11 games this year have had a total of 56 or fewer points scored. On the flip-side though, WKU has played pretty good defensively down the stretch, as it's conceded only 14.3 PPG over its last four. The pick: Georgia State has given up an average of only 18.3 PPG over its last three games, so these are two teams which come in firing on all cylinders on the defensive side of the ball. With so much time off in between games, I believe these offenses suffer and I look for these defensive units to become the main storylines in tomorrow's summaries. This number is a tad high. This is a 10* TOP TOTAL on the UNDER WKU/Georgia State. |
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12-26-20 | Bucs v. Lions UNDER 54 | Top | 47-7 | Push | 0 | 124 h 53 m | Show |
The set-up: The Bucs are still in contention for a playoff spot, but they haven't clinched yet. Tampa is dealing with injury issues right now, but with a Bears loss this weekend, the Bucs will clinch. The only motivation that Detroit has today is try and play spoiler for Tampa here, as it was eliminated officially from contention last weekend. And frankly, the thought of disturbing the Bucs playoff chances isn't going to be any sort of motivating factor whatsoever for this Lions team, who I think will quickly throw in the white towel after the first quarter. The pick: The Bucs are one of the better defensive clubs, allowing just 22.9 PPG, No. 1 against the run by allowing just 77.8 PPG. The Lions are a throw-first team anyways, but it makes their already one-dimensional offense, even more so. I think Tampa goes up early, but then runs this clock out as it tries to avoid any more injuries. This number is a tad high. This is a 9* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Bucs/Lions. |
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12-25-20 | Vikings v. Saints UNDER 52 | Top | 33-52 | Loss | -110 | 103 h 29 m | Show |
The set-up: This is a big game for both teams. The Vikes need to win to keep their playoff hopes alive after a 33-27 loss to the Bears last Sunday. Clearly the last thing that the Vikings want to do is try to turn this into a track meet with the Saints, instead they'll be leaning heavily on RB Dalvin Cook from start to finish. The Vikes have lost two in a row and they're basically eliminated already, as they'll have to win their last two games and get plenty of outside help. One game at a time though. Kirk Cousins was decent this year with 29 TD's and 13 INT's, but it was Cook who led the league in rushing. The pick: Minnesota is poor defensively and the the Saints are one of the best on the offensive side of the ball, but I look for the Saints to also lean heavily on their run game today as they try to break a three-game slide. Brees returned from COVID in last week's 32-29 loss to the Chiefs and while New Orleans was the first team to clinch a playoff spot, it still has a chance to lock up the NFC South. I think Alvin Kamara will play a big part in the home side's offense today. The big difference this year though for New Orleans has been its defensive play, as outside of the Chiefs loss, the Saints had been fantastic over the previous five games (21.2 PPG conceded on average.) Look for both teams to run the ball first and then expect this total to indeed stay under once it's all said and done. This is a 10* TOTAL GRINCH-BUSTER on the UNDER Vikes/Saints. |
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12-24-20 | Hawaii v. Houston OVER 61.5 | Top | 28-14 | Loss | -110 | 100 h 14 m | Show |
The set-up: This game is being played in Frisco Texas due to COVID restrictions. Both teams are defensively challenged and I expect a shootout from start to finish. The Warriors finished 4-4, while Houston was 3-4. The Cougars have plenty of offensive talent which I expect to run up this score. Hawaii won't have the luxury to sit back and wait for Houston to make a mistake. The Warriors average 26 points per game, but their passing attack is ranked a respectable 49th with 243.4 yards per game. Hawaii is going to have to put the foot on the gas throughout as well, as note that it's defense was terrible, allowing 29.3 PPG. The pick: Houston's defense is porous as well. The Cougars have allowed 19 touchdowns to opponents this year in just 29 red zone trips. Note as well that defensive star Payton Turner (who finished with 17 tackles and five sacks this year), has opted out of playing in this game. Clayton Tune likes to throw the ball, he averages 261.7 passing yards per game. The lowest point total that Houston gave up this season was 21. Suffice it to say, I expect this total to fly over sooner, rather than later! This is a 10* TOTAL BLOWOUT on the OVER Hawaii/Houston. |
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12-23-20 | Georgia Southern v. Louisiana Tech UNDER 51.5 | Top | 38-3 | Win | 100 | 77 h 44 m | Show |
The set-up: Louisiana Tech receives the bowl bid despite the 4-4 record. LA Tech has struggled thoughout the season on the offensive side of the ball, averaging just 325.1 YPG on the ground. LA Tech was poor defensively as well, conceding 34.3 PPG. The pick: Georgia Southern doesn't score a lot either, averaging just 26.3 PPG, but it makes up for it on the other end by allowing just 22.3. Note as well that the Georgia Southern offense will be without both No. 1 and No. 2 QB's, as Shai Werts and backup Justin Tomlin are out for this one. LA Tech struggles at the best of times to move the ball and now they face one of the best defenses they've seen all year. Expect a hard-fought, but ultimately lower-scoring New Orleans Bowl once it's all said and done. This is a 10* play on the UNDER Georgia Southern/Louisiana Tech. |
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12-22-20 | Tulane v. Nevada OVER 56.5 | Top | 27-38 | Win | 100 | 53 h 21 m | Show |
The set-up: Tulane likes to run the ball. Nevada likes to throw the ball. Tulane was poor defensively and Nevada was in the middle of the pack. The Green Wave are led by their two RB's in Stephon Huderson and Cameron Carroll. QB Mike Pratt had a sharp 18:5 TD:INT this year. Overall Tulane averages 35.4 PPG. The pick: Nevada and Carson Strong average 29.9 PPG. The Wolfpack won their first five games and then faltered down the stretch, losing their last two. This is a big opportunity to end the season on a high note and against a secondary which was terrible against the pass. Note that Strong leads a passing attack which ranks tenth in the country. I believe each offense will move the chains efficiently and I expec this total to fly "over" the number sooner, rather than later. This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER Tulane/Nevada. |
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12-21-20 | Steelers v. Bengals OVER 40.5 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 178 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: Pittsburgh's suddenly lost two in a row and the hapless 2-10-1 Bengals would love nothing more than to kick this division rival while it's down. Especially on National television. The Steelers most recently fell 26-15 to Buffalo, while the Bengals lost 30-7 to the Cowboys. When these teams played on November 15th, the Steelers scored the 36-10 win and I expect a similar final combined score here as well. Pittsburgh is averaging 26.9 PPG, and the Bengals are allowing 26.0 on average. The pick: Neither team has played to many "overs," this year, but the circumstances each side finds itself in definitely lends itself to more of a "shootout" than a "chess match." Also note that Pittsburgh has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 11 after back-to-back SU losses, while Cincinnati has seen the total go "over" in ten of its last 16 after scoring seven or less points in a SU/ATS loss in its previous outing. This number is indeed a tad low, the play is the "over." This is a 10* DIVISIONAL TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER Steelers/Bengals. |
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12-21-20 | North Texas v. Appalachian State UNDER 63.5 | Top | 28-56 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 35 m | Show |
The set-up: App State has closed out each of the last five years with a Bowl win and it's heavily favored to do so again on Monday afternoon. The Mountaineers finished 8-3 this season after a 34-26 win over Georgia Southern last week. UNT is 4-5, most recently entering off a 45-43 shootout victory over UTEP on Friday. While each team just finished playing to a higher-scoring victory, I think this Bowl contest at a weird time of the day and with little time to prepare, definitely sets up as a lower-scoring battle, rather than a high-scoring shootout. App State averages 31.8 PPG and it allows just 19.3. UNT averaged 35.1 PPG, while allowing 41.3. The pick: The Mountaineers are in no fear of losing this game outright and I don't expect them to run up the score either. App State is going to run the ball and control the clock as it looks to close out this difficult campaign with one more victory. I think UNT will struggle to move the ball in the second half of this game and that'll help in contributing to push this total "under" once it's all said and done. This is a 10* play on the UNDER App State/UNT. |
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12-20-20 | Patriots v. Dolphins OVER 42.5 | Top | 12-22 | Loss | -105 | 148 h 1 m | Show |
The set-up: Miami is the No. 7 seed. Buffalo has now clinched the AFC East, but the Fish still have plenty to play for here. Most recently Miami fell 33-27 to Kansas City. New England looks to regroup after falling 24-3 to the Rams last Thursday, it's now 6-7 overall. The Patriots have been hit or miss all year and last week they were definitely a "miss." New England will now need to run the table, while also getting outside help if it has any shot at making the playoffs. While the last five NE games have gone "under" the number, I expect today's contest to finally sneak above, as both teams are hungry for a victory here and I expect that determination to translate into production on the field. The pick: Both Tua and Newton have something to prove as well. Each QB is playing for a position on a team for next season, so it's a "game within a game" here. Also note that the Patriots have seen the total go "over" the number in seven of their last 11 road games after playing to three or more straight "unders." This number is a tad low. This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER Pats/Fish. |
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12-14-20 | Ravens v. Browns UNDER 46 | Top | 47-42 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 54 m | Show |
The set-up: This is an important divisional matchup. Baltimore crushed the Browns 38-6 at home in Week 1 and I'm expecting a similar final combined score here as well. Cleveland is coming off its fourth straight win, a 41-35 victory over Tennessee. Baltimore won 34-17 over the Cowboys. Baltimore averages 26.3 PPG and it allows just 19.3. The Browns averages 25.5 PPG, and they allow 26.8. Both teams can score, as they combine for 52 points, a figure which would push this total "over" the posted number. Both teams are decent defensively, as they combined to allow just 44 PPG. With the season winding down and so much on the line though, this one has the feel of a playoff game to me, where every inch is going to be contested. Where the game is decided in the trenches and by field position. This one has the feel of a "chess match," rather than a run and gun "shootout." The pick: The numbers/trends support this theory as well, as note that the total has gone "under" in six of the Ravens last eight on the road. It's also gone "under" in six of these teams last eight vs. each other. A great time to pull the trigger on this situational totals play. This number is a tad high in my opinion. This is a 10* AFC NORTH TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER Ravens/Browns. |
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12-13-20 | Saints v. Eagles OVER 45 | Top | 21-24 | Push | 0 | 148 h 23 m | Show |
The set-up: New Orleans would love to keep the win streak going, but one has to wonder if this is a trap game or not?! New Orleans is the first team to qualify for the playoffs after last weekends win and it's won its last two games without Drew Brees under center. This also sets up as a "look-ahead" spot as the Saints welcome the defending champion Chiefs next weekend. New Orleans has been superb on both sides of the ball, but Philadelphia is coming to play a full quarters today as it is in a "must win" situation. Even at 3-8-1 the Eagles are still in contention for the Division title, but they can't afford any more losses. In fact, things are so dire that they've decided to insert rookie Jalen Hurts into the line-up in hopes of jump-starting this offense. Hurts has weapons around him and I like the rookie to do just that. The pick: Additionally note that the Saints have seen the total go "over" the number in eight of their last 11 after three or more straight SU victories in a row, while the Eagles have seen the total eclipse the posted number in ten of their last 14 after two or more SU losses. From a situational standpoint, this one definitely screams "over!" This is a 10* NFC TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER Saints/Eagles. |
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12-10-20 | Patriots v. Rams OVER 44.5 | Top | 3-24 | Loss | -107 | 86 h 6 m | Show |
The set-up: I think this is going to be a very competitive, higher-scoring affair. The Patriots still have a shot at the playoffs after the NFL extended the playoff pool to seven teams for each conference. New England is coming off a 45-0 win over the Chargers, so it's been able to stay in the state, which is a huge situational advantage for the visiting side here. Cam Newton only had 69 yards passing last weekend, but the run game had 180 yards and the special teams play was incredible. The pick: The Rams and Patriots both have Top 10 defensive numbers, but each come in off high-scoring victories. LA smoked the Cardinals 38-28 last time out and it now has the lead in the NFC West over Seattle due in part to the tie-breaker. I expect these two motivated sides open up the playbook and I look for this total to fly over sooner, rather than later. This is a 10* TOTAL PLAYBOOK on the OVER Pats/Rams. |
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12-10-20 | Florida Atlantic v. Southern Miss OVER 43 | Top | 31-45 | Win | 100 | 98 h 26 m | Show |
The set-up: FAU had a week off and returned to action last weekend and promptly fell 20-3 to Georgia Southern. FAU is now 5-2 overall and 4-1 in Conference USA standings. Southern Mississipi comes in fresh and focussed after its last two games were cancelled because of COVID concerns. The Eagles are just 2-7 and they last fell 23-20 to UTSA, but Southern Miss won't be rolling over in this nationally televised contest. Neither teams scores a lot and each is decent defensively (especially FAU, which concedes only 12.4 PPG), and those facts have definitely helped in driving this O/U line down. However, I think it's too low considering the overall situation. The pick: Also note that Southern Miss has seen the total go "over" in eight of its last 11 when playing with two or more weeks of rest, while FAU has seen the total fly "over" in 14 of its last 22 after scoring three or less points in a loss in its previous outing. I look for this one to fly "over" as the game comes down the stretch. This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER FAU/Southern Miss. |
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12-08-20 | Cowboys v. Ravens OVER 45 | Top | 17-34 | Win | 100 | 14 h 20 m | Show |
The set-up: Dallas is on the ropes. It's 3-8 and it's coming off a poor 41-17 home loss to Washington on Thanksgiving day. The Cowboys need to win this game. They basically need to win every game if they have any shot at making the playoffs. One thing's for sure though, if the Cowboys lose today, they're season is essentially over. I expect Dallas to give its best shot today. The only way this team is going to win is to put the pressure on Baltimore and hope that it makes a few mistakes. The pick: LaMar Jackson is back under center for the home side and he'll look to take advantage of this Cowboys defense which is ranked dead last in the league. Baltimore needs some wins as well and it has every reason to run up the score even if it has a lead as it tries to regain chemistry which it's recently lost. I expect both teams to push the pace from start to finish and I look for this total to fly over sooner, rather than later. This is a 10* TOP TOTAL on the OVER Dallas/Baltimore. |
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12-07-20 | Bills v. 49ers OVER 48 | Top | 34-24 | Win | 100 | 148 h 49 m | Show |
The set-up: This is an important non-conference game for both teams. The Bills are 8-3 and the 49ers are 5-6. Buffalo beat the Chargers 27-17 last time out, while the 49ers beat the Rams 23-20 on the road. Buffalo is going to try and push the tempo of this one, as it comes to the West Coast averaging 27.2 PPG, while allowing 25.6. Josh Allen has emerged this season as one of the top QB's, as he has 3,028 passing yards, 22 TD's and eight interceptions. The pick: The 49ers are fighting to stay alive in the playoff hunt after a slow start, due mostly to injury and COVID. San Fran snapped its three-game losing streak last time out as its finally adjusting on the offensive side with Nick Mullens under center. So far Mullens has 1,642 passing yards, six touchdowns and seven interceptions. San Fran averages 23.7 PPG and it allows 23.1, but note that it's seen the total fly "over" the number in four of its last six vs. Buffalo. The Bills have seen the total fly over in four of their last five on the road and all signs point to these strong trends continuing here. This number is a little low. This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER Buffalo/San Fran. |
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12-04-20 | UL-Lafayette v. Appalachian State UNDER 53.5 | Top | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 80 h 39 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams are in search of a victory. Both teams have lost to Coastal Carolina. App State bounced back from that loss to smash Troy 47-10 last weekend. QB Zac Thomas and the Mountaineers raced out to a four touchdown lead in the first half and then never looked back. Louisiana Lafayette has won five in a row after crushing UL Monroe 70-20 last weekend. Quarterback Levi Lewis had five touchdowns in the rout. App State's defense matches up well against the Cajuns option attack though, as it's allowing only 139 rushing yards per game. The pick: Both teams run the ball extremely well and in this very important contest, I expect each to run from start to finish. While both teams have played to some very high-scoring affairs of late, I expect this one to finally fall under (note that six of these team's last eight against each other have indeed fallen "under" the number.) This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER UL Lafayette/App State. |
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11-30-20 | Seahawks v. Eagles OVER 51 | Top | 23-17 | Loss | -108 | 179 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: Seattle has lost three of its last five and it needs to keep winning here to maintain its lead. The Hawks have some hope though, as Arizona is coming off a loss in New England. These teams last played a playoff game last January and Seattle won 17-6. Suffice it to say, I'm expecting a much more wide-open affair here though, as each team truly is desperate for a victory today. Philadelphia is coming off a second-straight loss, falling 22-17 to Cleveland at home. Overall the Hawks average 31.8 PPG. Seattle's defense has been poor though and the secondary has some key injuries today, including S Marquise Blair and Lano Hill and cornerbacks Quinton Dunbar and Neiko Thorpe are out. The pick: Philly is only averaging 22 PPG, while allowing 25.4. I'll point out though that the Eagles have seen the total fly "over" the number in eight of their last 11 after scoring 19 points or less in a loss in their last outing. More than anything, this sets up great as a "shootout" from a situational standpoint. Both teams have weapons on offense, and I expect them to be the main storylines in tomorrow's summaries. This number is low. This is a 10* TOTAL BLOOD-BATH on the OVER Hawks/Eagles. |
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11-29-20 | Saints v. Broncos OVER 44.5 | Top | 31-3 | Loss | -110 | 151 h 32 m | Show |
The set-up: Everything on paper here screams "under," but I'm going the other way and expecting the undermanned Saints to "man up" and push the pace from start to finish. New Orleans defense looked good against the Falcons last weekend, but I think the unit will struggle in this difficult road venue. Denver comes in off a 20-13 win over the Dolphins, so this is a team which has not even come close to throwing in the towel yet. From a situational stand point, I think it sets up great for a higher-scoring affair. The pick: Note as well that Denver has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 11 after holding its previous opponent to 13 points or less in a victory, while New Orleans has seen the total fly over in five of its last six on the road. This number is low. This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the Saints/Broncos OVER. |
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11-19-20 | Cardinals v. Seahawks UNDER 57.5 | Top | 21-28 | Win | 100 | 85 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: Arizona scored a high-scoring OT victory at home over Seattle a couple weeks ago. Both teams have been playing to very high-scoring games this year, but on the short week, I think that trend changes. Seattle desperately needs a bounce back victory here. The Hawks' once vaunted defense is long gone, but this is a big opportunity for that unit to bounce back as well. It's been raining heavily in the Pacific Northwest for the last couple of weeks and that's going to play a factor here as well. The pick: Both teams will be out to establish the run from start to finish while on offense on this blustery night in Seattle. Note that the last four Cardinals road games have gone "under" the number as well. I believe the conditions are definitely right for more of a "chess match," than a run and gun "shootout." This number is a little high. This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Cards/Hawks. |
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11-12-20 | Colorado State v. Boise State UNDER 61 | Top | 21-52 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
The set-up: Boise State enters off a terrible 51-17 home blowout loss to BYU, while Colorado State enters off an upset 34-24 win over Wyoming on Thursday. These teams have met nine times and the Broncos have won all nine games. That includes last year's 31-24 victory in Fort Collins. Suffice it to say, I expect a similar final combined score here as well. Colorado State is 1-1. The Rams are somewhat "lucky" though, as they did allow 465 total yards of offense last week, but they managed to hold in the red zone somehow, while also forcing three Wyoming turnovers. The picks: The Broncos were forced to play with their third-string QB vs. BYU and it showed. Cade Fennegan finished with 187 yards and two TD's. Expect to see a heavy dose of the run game from the home side as it looks to alleviate the pressure from Fennegan. This one sets up as more of a "chess match" than a "shootout" in my opinion. This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER CSU/Boise State. |
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11-10-20 | Akron v. Ohio UNDER 57.5 | Top | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 51 h 6 m | Show |
The set-up: Akron is coming off a 58-13 loss to WMU, while Ohio enters off a 30-27 setback to Central Michigan. Akron has lost two straight in this series. Last week Zach Gibson had 125 passing yards, one TD and one INT. The Zips struggled defensively last week, but the unit catches a bit of a break facing this run oriented Ohio offense. The picks: Bobcats' QB Kurtis Rourke had 231 passing yards and two TD's in last week's loss, while De'Montre Tuggle had 79 rushing yards and a TD. Ohio was caught flat-footed defensively last time out, but once again, the Bobcats defense catches a big break here facing this poor Akron offense. While the total went over in both team's first game of the year, and while the over has hit in the last three in this series, the overall circumstances finally point to a lower-scoring "under" in my opinion. This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER in Akron/Ohio. |
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11-08-20 | Seahawks v. Bills UNDER 52 | Top | 34-44 | Loss | -103 | 147 h 29 m | Show |
The set-up: Buffalo is 6-2 and Seattle is 6-1. This is an important non-conference contest for both teams, who look to maintain their leads in their division and conferences. The Seahawks have averaged 34.3 PPG and they've allowed 28.4. The Hawks have seen the total go "over" in several games this year, but note that they've seen the total dip "under" in ten of their last 13 after scoring 35 points or more in an ATS/SU win at home in their last outing. The picks: The Bills offense has regressed somewhat the last two weeks, and the defense has improved slightly. The result is 2-0 the last two games, most recently a 24-21 win over New England, in which Cam Newton fumbled the ball away in the final seconds with a chance for victory. Overall though the defense was great against Newton, holding him to 174 yards passing and no touchdowns. Buffalo averages 24.8 PPG and it allows 24.9. Buffalo has also seen the total go "under" in ten of its last 16 after B2B SU victories. This number is a tad high. This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Hawks/Bills. |
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11-07-20 | Kansas v. Oklahoma UNDER 65.5 | Top | 9-62 | Loss | -117 | 127 h 17 m | Show |
The set-up: The Sooners are out of their fourth straight win here. There's no reason to run up the score in the second half though. It's true these teams have been playing to some pretty high-scoring affairs of late, but I believe the overall situation that each school finds itself in coming into this contest will finally lead to a lower-scoring affair. Oklahoma smashed the Red Raiders 62-28 last weekend, but I don't expect a repeat performance here, despite the Jayhawks' issues on the defensive side of the ball. Kansas is looking to get off the schneid, entering at 0-6, and looking to atone for a poor 52-22 setback to No. 17 Iowa State last time out. The pick: Another situational factor that leads me to believe that Oklahoma will take the foot off the gas in the second half is scheduling. The Sooners enjoy their bye-week next week, before finishing off the season vs. Oklahoma State, at WVU and at Baylor. The total has also gone "under" in four of these teams last six in the series. I base my picks on many things, but my O/U selections are primarily based on "situations." This one meets several of my personal criteria. This number is high in my opinion. This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the UNDER Kansas/Oklahoma. |
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11-05-20 | Packers v. 49ers UNDER 51 | Top | 34-17 | Push | 0 | 84 h 54 m | Show |
The set-up: These teams met twice last year and the 49ers won both games at home. The Packers have now lost two of their last three games and shoddy defensive play is to blame. Dalvin Cook torched the Packers on the ground last weekend for 226 yards and three touchdowns. Thankfully for Green Bay, it faces a depleted 49ers team this weekend. Aaron Rodgers continues to be a bright spot for Green Bay, as he has 20 touchdowns and only two interceptions. The picks: The 49ers lost 37-27 at Seattle last weekend. They also lost the services of their two best offensive players in TE George Kittle and QB Jimmy Garoppolo. Green Bay struggles against decent pass coverate and San Francisco has an elite pass covering unit. The last thing San Fran can do here is obviously try to turn this into a "shootout" and expect to win vs. Rodgers. This is a common sense play for sure, as in my opinion, everything points to more of a "chess match," than a "shootout." This is a 10* TOTAL BLOOD-BATH on the UNDER Packers/49ers. |
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11-01-20 | Raiders v. Browns UNDER 55.5 | Top | 16-6 | Win | 100 | 145 h 32 m | Show |
The set-up: I love this play. Both teams have come off some very high-scoring affairs, but I think that this game sets up as much more of a defensive affair finally. Las Vegas was just spanked 45-20 by the Bucs at home and it'll be out to get back to its winning ways, facing a Browns team which comes in off a 37-34 OT win over the Bengals, but which lost top WR Odell Beckham Jr. in the process. I expect the home side to get out and establish the run early and often here. Situationally, I believe this absolutely sets up as more of a "chess match," than a "run and gun shootout." The pick: Note as well that Cleveland has seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last 11 after scoring 35 points or more in a SU OT victory in its last outing, while Las Vegas has seen the total go "under" in seven of its last 11 after allowing 40 or more points in a 20 points or larger loss in its previous outing. This number is much too high. This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER Vegas/Cleveland. |
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10-26-20 | Bears v. Rams OVER 45.5 | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -112 | 151 h 3 m | Show |
The set-up: Neither team has played to many high-scoring games this year, but I look for this Monday night contest to be more of a wide-open affair. The Bears continue to win, they most recently got past Carolina 23-16. LA had won three in a row before a 24-16 loss at San Francisco last weekend. Both teams only ask their QB's to "manage" games, so Jared Goff and Nick Foles are a wash here. These are two "gun slingers" though who will be given the green light to air it out on the national stage. The pick: Strong run games and strong defenses are what define these clubs in the early going, but note that Chicago has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 12 after back-to-back SU/ATS victories, while LA has seen the total go "over" in ten of its last 16 after a loss in which it score 17 or less points in. I expect this total to fly over sooner, rather than later. This is a 10* TOTAL BLOOD-BATH on the OVER Bears/Rams. |
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10-25-20 | Bucs v. Raiders UNDER 53.5 | Top | 45-20 | Loss | -108 | 123 h 0 m | Show |
The set-up: This was originally going to be the Sunday Night game, but there were a couple Covid related issues which caused the league to delay this game and then re-schedule to an afternoon slot. Regardless, Tampa looks to build off its big win at home over the Packers, holding Aaron Rodgers without a touchdown, along with forcing three interceptions. THe last thing Tampa wants to do though is turn this into a shootout with the Raiders, who upset the Chiefs 40-32 in their last outing. Tampa's defense is elite and the run game is starting to fire on all cylinders. Look for Brady to be more a game manager than gun-slinger today. The pick: Finally note that the Raiders have seen the total go "under" the number in eight of their last 11 after their bye and after scoring 40 or more points in a victory in their previous outing. This number is a little high. This is a 10* TOTAL ELITE OF THE ELITE on the UNDER Bucs/Raiders. |
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10-22-20 | Giants v. Eagles UNDER 45.5 | Top | 21-22 | Win | 100 | 85 h 15 m | Show |
The set-up: These teams play in a horrible division and despite the Eagles being 1-4-1 and the Giants being 1-5, both still mathematically have a shot at winning the title. Philly is winless at home and New York is winless at home. The Eagles did win both matchups last year. New York posted its first win of the year last week in a 20-19 victory over Washington. That was despite being outgained 337 to 240. QB Daniel Jones was an unremarkable 12 of 19 for 112 yards. He has three TD's and six INT's this season. New York is 31st in the NFL in rushing as well. The pick: The Eagles come in off a slim loss to the Ravens. Philadelphia has been competitive in defeat and I expect it to look to control this game from the outset. Wentz is only averaging 233.5 YPG and he has a career low completion percentage of 58.7. Both teams are struggling offensively and each has been decent defensively. Look for the short week to amplify those trends and look for this total to stay well under once it's all said and done. This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Giants/Eagles. |
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10-13-20 | Bills v. Titans UNDER 53 | Top | 16-42 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams are undefeated. Playing during the pandemic is weird enough for these players, but having to shift their schedule to play on Tuesday night is unprecedented. I think this will effect offensive chemistry from both sides. Both teams defensive numbers are in the middle of the pack, but I look for each side's offense to concentrate on establishing the run. Strictly from a situational stand point, I think this one definitely sets up nicely as a lower-scoring affair. The pick: Note though that the "under" has hit in four of these teams last five in the series. Tennessee has seen the total go "under" in eight of its last 12 after its bye week (while not technically its official bye, Tennessee did not play last weekend due to covid issues), while Buffalo has seen the total dip below the number in ten of its last 15 after three or straight up victories in a row. This total is a little high. This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Bills/Titans. |
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10-12-20 | Chargers v. Saints UNDER 50.5 | Top | 27-30 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 43 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams are coming off high-scoring affairs, but I think that this MNF contest sets up as more of a defensive contest. The Chargers are 1-3 after collapsing late last week and falling 38-31 to the Bucs. New Orleans is now 2-2 after beating the Lions on the road 35-29. Chargers' rookie QB Justin Herbert had 290 passing yards with three TD's last weekend, but regression seems imminent in this difficult road venue. LA's defense has been a strong point despite the crummy second half vs. the Bucs last week, allowing only 23.8 PPG. The pick: The Saints are going to have to figure out things on the defensive end if they have any hopes of competing this year. Brees is down a few weapons this weekend as well, as TE Jason Vander Laan, WR Michael Thomas, TE Cole Wick are all out. That means that Brees is going to have to lean on Alvin Kamara to chew up clock and keep this aggressive Chargers' pass rush honest. No Monday Night shootout here, this one screams under! This is a 10* TOTAL ELITE OF THE ELITE on the UNDER Chargers/Saints. |
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10-09-20 | Louisville v. Georgia Tech UNDER 64.5 | Top | 27-46 | Loss | -112 | 26 h 22 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams enter at 1-2. I'm expecting a defensive affair. 15 projected starters returned for the Cardinals this year, so the team was expecting to improve upon its 8-5 showing from last season. Louisville will be desperate here to avoid an 0-3 start in ACC play. QB Malik Cunningham had 22 TDs and only five INTs last year, but he's already thrown five picks over his first three games this season. Despite getting outgained 376-223 to Pittsburgh last week, Louisville still only lost by three points. Louisville averages 29.7 PPG and it allows 30.3. The pick: The Yellow Jackets have struggled defensively as well in conceding 33 PPG, but their offense has been worse in averaging just 19 PPG. Georgia Tech's offense is still a work in progress though and I think it'll struggle here vs. this focussed Louisville side. GT has yet to score 20 points in a games this year, while Louisville has seen less than 57 total points scored in two of its first three this season. Neither QB has been great, so it's time for these defeneses to finally shine. This number is a tad hight. This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Louisville/Georgia Tech. |
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10-08-20 | Bucs v. Bears UNDER 44.5 | Top | 19-20 | Win | 100 | 55 h 16 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams are 3-1, but the Bears played three "cream puffs" to open the season. Chicago fell 19-11 to the Colts last weekend though and now it faces another tough defense in Tampa. I expect the home side to play it conservatively here as it looks to take the pressure off of Nick Foles. The Bears are only averaging 21.3 PPG so far this season. The pick: The Bucs have looked pretty good on both sides of the ball since their Week 1 loss to the Saints, but after Tom Brady rallied his team for a 38-31 win over the Chargers last weekend, throwing four second half TD's, I think that the visitors come in "gassed" here. A short week for Brady, means that Tampa will also be looking to alleviate pressure off their older QB and establish the run game from the outset. This one sets up great as a lower-scoring "chess match" in my opinion. This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Bucs/Bears. |
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10-05-20 | Falcons v. Packers UNDER 57.5 | Top | 16-30 | Win | 100 | 59 h 13 m | Show |
The set-up: The Falcons are 0-3. Atlanta has sizeable leads in each of its losses, only to choke it away late. This is a dejected Falcons side and I think it'll have difficulty summoning up the energy to go toe to toe with the red hot Packers on Monday night. Matt Ryan has been a bright spot for Atlanta, as he has seven TD's and just two INT's. The Falcons defense has been terrible, allowing 36 PPG. The pick: Aaron Rodgers and company don't need to "pad stats" after a 3-0 start though. Green Bay is in a good spot and it doesn't need to run up this score to win this contest. From a situational stand point, I think this number is much too high, but also note that Green Bay has seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last 11 after a three-games or longer unbeaten streak. These are two "gun-slinging" veteran QB's going head-to-head, but look for a more conservative game-plan from each. This number is a tad high, the play is the under. This is a 10* TOTAL MADNESS on the UNDER Falcons/Packers. |
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10-01-20 | Broncos v. Jets OVER 40 | Top | 37-28 | Win | 100 | 61 h 22 m | Show |
The set-up: The spread and total in this game have moved quite a bit over the last couple of days. The Jets were a 3-point underdog to open, but now they're a -2 point fav at some places. This total opened at 40, it dropped to as low as 39.5 and now it's 41.5. None of these line movements is overally significant though and regardless of all of that anyways, I think this total is much too low as I expect it to blast past early in the second half. I think it sets up well from a situational stand point. Defenses on both sides are terrible. Both teams are desperate for a win after starting 0-3. The National stage adds incentive to perform as well. When you add it all up from a situational stand point, I absolutely think this number is too low. The pick: Also note that Denver has seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of its last ten road games after three straight SU losses. This number is indeed low, the play is the over. This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER Broncos/Jets. |
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09-20-20 | Patriots v. Seahawks OVER 45 | Top | 30-35 | Win | 100 | 125 h 25 m | Show |
The set-up: I think Russell Wilson and the Seahawks will love nothing more than an opportunity to run up the score and destroy Cam Newton and the Patriots on Sunday night. New England looked "ok" in its home win over the Dolphins, but its patchwork defense is going to be in trouble tonight. That said, there's no question that Newton and the Patriots' offense will have their opportunties tonight as well. The pick: As note that the Hawks allowed 506 yards of offense to the Falcons last weekend and 25 points overall. Wilson had 322 yards passing and four TD's himself. This one has "over" written all over it! This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the OVER Pats/Hawks. |
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09-19-20 | Tulsa v. Oklahoma State UNDER 66 | Top | 7-16 | Win | 100 | 26 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: Last year OSU won this contest 40-21 on the road and I expect a similar final combined score here as well, as it sneaks "under" this sky-high number. Interesting to note, that Tulsa actually ahd a 21-20 lead at half time, but OCU scored 20 unanswered and locked down defensively in the second half for the big victory. Tulsa was only 4-8 last year and its offense revolves around its two senior RB's in Corey Taylor II and Shamari Brooks. QB Zach Smith had 3,279 yards passing last year, with 20 TD's and nine INT's. The pick: The Cowboys were 8-5 last year and averaged 32.5 PPG. OSU returns NCAAF's leading rusher in Chuba Hubbard as well. Spender Sanders had 16 TD passes and 11 INT's. Also note, the Cowboys return their entire defensive core. Two years ago OSU allowed 30-plus PPG. Last year it allowed 26.8. Now the Cowboys are once again expected to take a big step in a positive direction defensively. And that's bad news for this run first Tulsa side. This number is too high, the play is the under. This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Tulsa/Oklahoma. |
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09-13-20 | Packers v. Vikings UNDER 46.5 | Top | 43-34 | Loss | -110 | 283 h 45 m | Show |
The set-up: I like the Packers offense, but "chemistry" is going to be an issue early on for both teams in my opinion. The Packers offense is a well oiled machine and I think it can calmly control the pace of this contest vs. the Vikings' defense, which has many new faces. Expect to see a heavy dose of Dalvin Cook for the home side, who had 1,135 yards and 13 TD's last year. The pick: Note that the "under" has hit in 15 of Minnesota's last 23 at home and in its last five at home vs. the Packers, while Green Bay has seen the total go "under" the number in seven of its last ten overall dating back to last season. I expect a highly competitve football game, but one which falls well below the number once it's all said and done. This is a 10* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the UNDER Packers/Vikings. |
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09-07-20 | BYU v. Navy UNDER 48.5 | Top | 55-3 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 45 m | Show |
The set-up: Navy was 11-2 last year, but it enters having lost dynamic play-making QB Malcom Perry. Dalen Morris is now in charge of running the triple option, but he'll obviously need at least a few games under his belt to gain chemistry. Expect to see a heavy dose of Navy's two top RB's from last year in Jamale Carothers and Nelson Smith. The defense was also a strength last season, allowing just 22.3 PPG. The pick: BYU was 7-6 last year, but the Cougars should definitely improve with 15 starters returning, including eight on offense. That includes QB Zach Wilson, who will look to improve upon his 11:9 TD:INT. Look for BYU to also lean heavily on its running game here on offense, as its top three RB's return this season. Also note that the defense was strong for the Cougars last year, allowing just 25.5 PPG and that unit should be much stronger with 12 of its top 14 tacklers returning. This one screams "under," with both teams looking to establish the run while on offense. This number is high. The is a 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the UNDER BYU/Navy. |
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01-19-20 | Titans v. Chiefs UNDER 52 | Top | 24-35 | Loss | -105 | 152 h 39 m | Show |
The set-up: The Titans have been giant killers in the second half of the season. Certainly that's been the case in the Playoffs so far as well, knocking off both the Patriots and the Ravens. The Chiefs mounted an incredible come from behind blowout victory over Texans last weekend, but at one point there was considerable panic from all KC fans. Yes, Patrick Mahomes and this Chiefs offense is scary. But the Titans counter that with great defensive play and by running the ball a lot while their offense, behind the bruising play of RB Derrick Henry. The pick: In fact, Tennessee exposed the Chiefs' weaknesses already this year with a 35-32 win in the regular season, as Henry went for 188 yards and two TD's on 23 carries. The Titans are excuting at a very high level and they haven't been "beating themselves." It's KC that's going to have to play another perfect game here if it wants to pull off another blowout win and I don't see that happening. I believe we're going to see a battle until the final moments, a "chess match" instead of a "track meet." Note as well that Tennessee has seen the total go under the number in four of its last five as a road dog, while KC has seen the total dip under in both games that it's played in after scoring 40 points or more in its last game. This number is too high. 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Titans/Chiefs. |
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01-12-20 | Texans v. Chiefs UNDER 49 | Top | 31-51 | Loss | -107 | 172 h 7 m | Show |
The set-up: Houston advanced after beating the Bills 22-19 last weekend. The Texans looked down and out in that one early with a 16-0 deficit, but the team turned up the pressure on the defensive side and then Deshaun Watson and the offense managed to get the job done. Watson had 247 passing yards and one TD. Clearly the last thing the Texans can do is turn this into a "track meet" and expect to hang with Patrick Mahomes and company. Note that Kansas City’s rush defense ranked sixth in the league over the last three games of the season, allowing 87 rush yards per game. KC's pass defense was also No. 8 overall in the NFL this season. The pick: It's supposed to be cold and windy today, so with each team putting an added emphasis on establishing the run game and also taking into account the improved play on the defensive end from each team, I think this afternoon's contest sets up as a lower-scoring battle. Play the under. 10* TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER Texans/Chiefs. |
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01-04-20 | Titans v. Patriots OVER 43.5 | Top | 20-13 | Loss | -110 | 133 h 18 m | Show |
The set-up: Tom Brady and the Patriots have been terrible offensively over the last month or so, but they have a big opportunity to turn things around in the Wild Card. Do I think that Tennessee has a chance to steal this game in Foxborough? Of course I do, just look at what Miami did last weekend. The Patriots defense looks bad and so does it offense. The Titans won't be waiting for the home side to make the first mistake. They'll be looking to get an early score and then to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish. New England isn't going to win another Super Bowl either if it can't get its offense producing. From a situational stand point, I think this one definitely sets up as a higher-scoring shootout. The pick: But note as well that the Titans have seen the total go over the number in eight of their last 12 as an underdog int he 3.5 to 9.5 points range (including in three of four this year,) while the Pats have seen the total go over in three of their last four following a SU home loss. Look for this total to creep over this low number sooner, rather than later. 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the OVER Titans/Pats. |
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01-03-20 | Ohio v. Nevada UNDER 58 | Top | 30-21 | Win | 100 | 578 h 50 m | Show |
The set-up: Ohio finished 6-6 and Nevada was 7-5. The Bobcats needed to win their last two games to become eligible. Ohio put up 66 and 52 points over its final two games, but I expect a more conservative score here once it's all said and done. The Bobcats rely on their run game on offense, one which actually ranks 22nd in the country by averaging 216.5 YPG. The Wolfpack had their three-game win streak snapped with a loss in their finale. QB Carson Strong was a bright spot in defeat, throwing for 351 yards, one TD and no INT's. The pick: Ohio's defense also improve down the stretch and that unit is going to be tested throughout by the powerful run game of Nevada. Additionally note that Ohio has seen the total go under the number in four of its last five after two straight wins by 21 or more points, while Nevada has seen the total dip below in 12 of its last 18 as an underdog. This one has the feel of a "chess match," rather than a "run and gun shootout." This number is a tad high in my opinion. 10* TOTAL BLOWOUT on the UNDER Ohio/Nevada. |
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01-01-20 | Baylor v. Georgia OVER 42.5 | Top | 14-26 | Loss | -108 | 535 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: Baylor is 11-2 and Georgia is 11-2. The Bears are the fifth ranked team in the country and the Bulldogs are the seventh. The Bears average 35.2 PPG and they allow 19.3. Georgia was in the Sugar Bowl last year and it lost. The Bulldogs will be especially motivated tonight. Georgia averages 31.2 PPG and it allows only 12.5, but I think the defense is pushed to the brink here by this Bears' high-flying offensive attack. The pick: Note as well that Baylor has seen the total fly over the number in three of its last four after two weeks or more of rest, while Georgia has seen the total fly over in five of its last seven neutral site affairs when the total is set between 41.5 and 45. This number is a tad low in my opinion. 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the OVER Baylor/Georgia. |
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12-30-19 | Virginia v. Florida UNDER 55 | Top | 28-36 | Loss | -110 | 487 h 11 m | Show |
The set-up: Virginia lost to Clemson in the ACC Title game and finished 9-4, while Florida wasn't quite as good as Georgia in the SEC, but still finishing 10-2. The Cavs fell 62-17 to Clemson in the title game, but overall UVA has been solid on both sides of the ball, averaging 32.4 PPG and allowing 26.5. The Gators are averaging 33 PPG and allowing only 14.4. I think UVA is going to have difficulties moving the ball again vs. this Florida defense which is ranked among the best in the nation. The pick: Note as well that UVA has seen the total go under the number in four of its last five following a two weeks or longer lay off, while Florida has seen the total go under in four of its last five vs. teams with winning records. Florida went over the number just four times this year and I don't expect that strong trend to change tonight. Play the under. 10* TOTAL BLOWOUT on the UNDER UVA/Florida. |
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12-29-19 | Dolphins v. Patriots OVER 44.5 | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 123 h 23 m | Show |
The set-up: The 4-11 Miami Dolphins are at New England to take on the 12-3 Patriots. Miami and Ryan Fitzpatrick will be out to play spoiler here, so expect the visitors to open up the playbook from start to finish on offense (Fitzpatrick had four TD's in last week's 38-35 win over the Bengals.) The Patriots destroyed the Fish 43-0 in Week 2 and I believe that Tom Brady and company will be looking to end the season on a high-note as well. Brady has been shaky over the last month and the Pats just 4-3 SU their last seven. With one last chance for a tune-up, I think Brady puts on an exhibition today. The pick: Miami has seen the total go over in four of five in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent already this season, while NE has seen the total soar over in three of its last four as a home favorite in the 14.5 to 21 points range. Considering the situational and trend based factors listed above, I absolutely believe that this number is low. 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER Miami/New England. |
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12-28-19 | Clemson v. Ohio State OVER 63 | Top | 29-23 | Loss | -109 | 484 h 58 m | Show |
The set-up: Clemson is 13-0 and Ohio State is 12-1. If you're betting and watching and this game, then the overall story lines and cast of characters are well known to you. The strengths and weaknesses are also well known to even a casual NCAAF fan. I don't need to break down individual player matchups, because I don't think it's necessary. While both teams have been exceptional on the defensive side of the ball, both have also been unreal offensively and ultimately I think that the longer lay off will be more beneficial to each teams offense. The Tigers have averaged 54.2 PPG over their last six games and just put up 62 vs. a stingy Virginia defense in the ACC Title game. Not to be outdone though, Ohio State is ranked No. 1 in the nation by averaging 48.7 PPG behind the strong play of QB Justin Fields. The pick: Note as well that Clemson has seen the total go over the number in four of its last five after allowing 17 points or less in three straight games, while Ohio State has seen the total fly over the number in both games already this season in which it's had two weeks or more of rest in. This one has "shootout" written all over it. 10* BOWL TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER Clemson/OSU. |
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12-27-19 | Washington State v. Air Force OVER 67 | Top | 21-31 | Loss | -109 | 439 h 16 m | Show |
The set-up: These are two teams that want to actually win this game and I believe that focus and intensity will translate into offensive production on the field of play tonight. WSU is coming off a listless loss to Washington in its finale, held to just 13 points. Clearly this top 10 Cougars offense will be eager to get back on track here. Expect WSU to air it out early and often with dynamic QB Anthony Gordon today. The pick: The Falcons enter having won seven straight. Air Force has a top 40 offense and a top 20 defense. Donald Hammond III will have his opportunities today as well vs. a Cougars' secondary which allows nearly 290 passing yards per game. I think this has one has "track meet" written all over it. 10* play on the OVER WSU/Air Force. |
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12-26-19 | Pittsburgh v. Eastern Michigan UNDER 48.5 | Top | 34-30 | Loss | -112 | 413 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: Pitt fell 26-19 to Boston College at home in its regular season finale, while EMU also lost its final game, falling 34-26 to Kent State. The Panthers though come in with zero momentum as they dropped their final two games of the year, including getting blanked by Virginia Tech in their second to last game. Pittsburgh averages only 20.1 PPG, but it makes up for it on the other end by allowing only 21.8. The pick: EMU averages 29.1 PPG and it allows 30.3. With a month off to prepare for this one though, I think that Pittsburgh coach Pat Narduzzi can contain the Eagles' offense. The Panthers will indeed look to control the clock throughout this contest while on offense and in a scenario like this, the "under" is the correct call in my opinion. 10* BLOWOUT on the UNDER Pitts/EMU. |
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12-24-19 | BYU v. Hawaii OVER 62 | Top | 34-38 | Win | 100 | 365 h 25 m | Show |
The set-up: The 7-5 BYU Cougars are in Hawaii to take on the 9-5 Warriors and in my opinion, this one has "shootout" written all over it. The Rainbow Warriors were 6-2 in Aloha Stadium this year, including victories over Arizona and Oregon State. Hawaii eventually fell 31-10 to Boise State in the Championship Game, but I think that Cole McDonald and company will bounce back here with so much time off to prepare. McDonald finished with 3,642 yards and 29 TD's this season. Overall the Warriors average 33.6 PPG, while allowing 31.7. BYU won five straight before a listless 13-3 loss at SDSU. Like Hawaii though, I think the extra time off to prepare for this one will be beneficial to the offense, which averaged 39.8 PPG during the five-game win streak. Overall the Cougars average 28 points and allow 24.4 per game. The pick: Note as well that BYU has seen the total go over the number in four of six on the road this year, while Hawaii has seen the total soar above the posted number in three of four home games already this season when the total in the contest is set between 61 and 70 points. I believe the only game in town tonight will feature a lot of offense, and not much defense. Play the over. 10* play on the OVER BYU/Hawaii. |
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