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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-05-21 | Baylor v. Gonzaga -4 | Top | 86-70 | Loss | -114 | 14 h 5 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams are fantastic. Baylor is great at shooting the three-ball, and Gonzaga is the best at shooting from two-point range. The Bulldogs allow just 89.1 points per 100 possessions on the season. The Bulldogs also have size at every position, which is a mismatch issue for Baylor, as it starts four players 6-foot-5 or shorter. The pick: The Bears are also tough defensively, but not on the same level as the Zags, allowing 91.8 points per 100 possessions overall (and 97.9 points per 100 possessions vs. Big 12 opponents.) Baylor would have had difficulties with that red hot UCLA team too. Expect Gonzaga's size, experience and depth to prove to be the difference maker and lay the points. This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Gonzaga. |
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04-03-21 | UCLA v. Gonzaga -14 | Top | 90-93 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 42 m | Show |
The set-up: UCLA is great at shooting the three-ball, and it's been super efficient so far in its big Cindarella run. The Bruins had to play an extra game as well in the FIRST FOUR to even advance into the Big Dance. Gonzaga is on a mission to go undefeated, but after three straight covers to advance here, I'm expecting the Zags to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish in this one. The pick: Gonzaga is the highest scoring team in the nation, averaging 92.9 PPG. UCLA only averages 72.6. The Bruins are just happy to be here, while the Bulldogs are going to want to send a message at this point to its final opponent. On the National stage, look for Gonzaga to lay the hammer down from the opening tip, until the final horn. This is a 10* FINAL FOUR GAME OF THE WEEK on Gonzaga. |
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03-30-21 | USC v. Gonzaga UNDER 154 | Top | 66-85 | Win | 100 | 27 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams can score. Both teams can defend. Honestly, it wouldn't be difficult to write a convincing argument for this one to go "over" the number either. But in my opinion, this one does in fact set up great for a lower-scoring "under." It's interesting to note, that both teams have gone 3-0 ATS to open up the tournament. Each will be wary not to give the other an open look from the outside. USC averages 79.7 PPG, while allowing only 64.5, but note that it's conceded just 58.3 over its first three NCAA Tourney games. The pick: Gonzaga's nation-leading offense (91.8 PPG) is going to have its hands full with this aggressive Trojans' defense. The Bulldogs are allowing just 68.6 PPG this year, and everything, in my opinion, points to this one being an extreme defensive battle, rather than a high-scoring "shootout." I expect a war until the final buzzer and for this total to fall "under" once it's all said and done. This is a 10* ELITE 8 BEST OF THE BEST on the UNDER USC/Gonzaga. |
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03-29-21 | Arkansas v. Baylor UNDER 149.5 | Top | 72-81 | Loss | -115 | 33 h 51 m | Show |
The set-up: Baylor will be wary to get into a "shootout" here with the dangerous Razorbacks. The Bears hammered Villanova into submission by a score of 62-51 last tome out and I expect their tough defensive play to carry over here. How much gas does Arkansas have left in the tank after fighting tooth and nail in its 72-70 win over Oral Roberts as an 11-point favorite last time out? Not much in my opinion. The pick: Further note that Arkansas has seen the total go "under" in eight of its last 11 neutal site games after allowing 70 or more points in its last outing, while Baylor has seen the total dip below in five of its last seven after holding its previous opponent to 55 points or less in a SU/ATS victory. I expect a war until the final buzzer and for this total to fall "under" once it does. This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Arkansas/Baylor. |
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03-28-21 | Oregon +2.5 v. USC | Top | 68-82 | Loss | -109 | 108 h 55 m | Show |
The set-up: The Ducks smashed Iowa 95-80 behind 23 points from Chris Duarte last time out and I like them to carry that momentum over here into another victry. USC advanced by beating Kansas 85-51. These teams met on February 22nd in LA, and the Trojans won 72-58, setting this up as a classic revenge spot as well for Oregon. The pick: The Mobely brothers are tough to stop, but the Ducks perimeter defense has vastly improved since the last time these teams played against each other. The Ducks won the Pac 12 Championship and they've won 11 of their last 12. With a chance to avenge the earlier loss, I look for the red hot Ducks to do just that (that said, grab as many points as you can!) This is a 10* ELITE OF THE ELITE on Oregon. |
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03-27-21 | Oral Roberts v. Arkansas -11 | Top | 70-72 | Loss | -110 | 82 h 45 m | Show |
The set-up: Oral Roberts has been fantastic, most recently advancing past Florida 81-78. The Golden Eagles have a dynamic offense which averages 82.0 PPG. The one weakness of Oral Roberts though is its defensive play, as it concedes 75.9 PPG. The pick: Arkansas held on for a tight 68-66 win over a dangerous Texas Tech side and I expect it to lay the hammer down here with the Elite Eight in sight. The Razorbacks already defeated Oral Roberts 87-76 in mid-December, but all signs point to an even bigger blowout here. This is simply a really bad matchup for Oral Roberts, as Arkansas has a couple players over 7 feet. Lay the points, expect a rout. This is a 10* SWEET 16 GAME OF THE YEAR on Arkansas. |
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03-22-21 | Ohio v. Creighton -5.5 | Top | 58-72 | Win | 100 | 26 h 49 m | Show |
The set-up: Ohio is coming off a monumental 62-58 upset win over Virginia in the first round. Can anyone say letdown spot? The Bobcats are in unchartered territory now and I think they'll stumble here vs. the deeper and more experienced Blue Jays. Creighton avoided an upset with a 63-62 win over UCSB. The pick: Don't read too much into Ohio's win though. Yes, it was big and signficant, however UVA got hit by some major COVID issues just a week and half before the Tournament started. There's a big asterisk beside that victory. However, we can read a lot from Creighton's win, as the Blue Jays bent, but didn't break. The Blue Jays' numbers on the defensive end are more efficient and I expect that to play a part here as well. I'm laying the points and expecting a blowout. This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Creighton. |
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03-21-21 | Oral Roberts v. Florida -8 | Top | 81-78 | Loss | -109 | 30 h 47 m | Show |
The set-up: Oral Roberts has been fantastic, but I think its Cindarella run comes to an end tonight. The Golden Eagles most recently go by Ohio State in the first round as 15 point underdogs. Florida though comes off an impressive victory over Virginia Tech as a 1.5 point dog and I think it's superior defensive play, and experience will be just too much Oral Roberts to handle in the second round. The Golden Eagles are great offensively, averaging 81.5 PPG, but they've been poor defensively, conceding 75.6. The pick: Florida averages 74 PPG, while conceding 69.8. There were plenty of BIG upsets in the first round. Both of these teams come in off upsets. Oral Roberts upset win in the first round can absolutely be classified as a "major" upset though. And this then sets it up for a letdown for sure. Look for Florida's depth on both ends of the court to be the difference and lay the points with confidence. This is a 10* SECOND ROUND GAME OF THE YEAR on Florida. |
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03-20-21 | Ohio v. Virginia -7 | Top | 62-58 | Loss | -110 | 107 h 15 m | Show |
The set-up: After seeing a bunch of favorites get the hook early on Friday, the Virginia Cavaliers will be cautious not to follow the same fate here in what is actually a very favorable matchup for them. Note that the Cavs are still the reigning NCAA Champion, because last year's tournament was cancelled. The Cavs had a small COVID issue, and one player will not be at the game today, but they've won seven of their last ten and three in a row. The pick: Ohio has won nine of its last ten games. It's had to deal with COVID issues this year as well. The Bobcats lack the depth and experience a this level though, and note that the Cavs are 10-3 straight-up in their last 13 NCAA Tournament games and 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 after an ATS loss. The Cavs are well-coached and their defense is suffocating. Look for UVA to pull away for a comfortable win and cover on Saturday night. This is a 10* FIRST ROUND GAME OF THE YEAR on UVA. |
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03-19-21 | Cleveland State +20 v. Houston | Top | 56-87 | Loss | -109 | 28 h 41 m | Show |
The set-up: Houston smoked Cincinnati in the ACC Tournament Championship game, but I think it'll have its hands full here with this underrated Cleveland State side. The Vikings are the Horizon League Tourney champ after dispatching Oakland 80-69. Cleveland State averages only 69.5 PPG, but it's one of the best on the defensive ends, especially at defending the three-ball, allowing just 30.4 percent from range, which ranks 34th in the country. The pick: Houston allows only 57.6 PPG, while scoring 77.6. Clearly the Cougars are a good team, but note that they're just 1-4 ATS in their last five after scoring 90 or more points in their previous outing. The Vikings on the other hand are 7-1 ATS in their last eight as an underdog and 4-0 ATS in their last four neutral site games. I think the Vikings tough defensive play keeps them competitive late. No outright, but much closer than what this massive spread would suggest. Grab the points. This is a 10* COACHS CORNER on Cleveland State. |
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03-18-21 | UCLA +2 v. Michigan State | Top | 86-80 | Win | 100 | 33 h 51 m | Show |
The set-up: UCLA enters on a four-game losing streak. That included a first round exit in the conference tournament to the eventual champion Oregon State Beavers. It was a tight game though, as the Bruins eventually lost 83-79 in OT. Michigan State had an up and down year as well. The Spartans lost in the first round of their conference tournament as well by a score of 68-57 to Maryland. The pick: UCLA averages 72.8 PPG, and it concedes 68.5. Michigan State on the other hand averages 69 PPG, while allowing 70.6. The Spartans are also a poor 5-11 ATS in their last 16 following an ATS loss and just 1-6 ATS in their last seven neutral site games, while UCLA has in fact performed very well in this spot for bettors of late, going 7-3 ATS in its last ten as an underdog. Clearly I think the outright is going to happen, but in the end I'm still grabbing the points. This is a 10* FIRST-FOUR PLAY-BOOK on UCLA. |
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03-17-21 | Toledo v. Richmond +2.5 | Top | 66-76 | Win | 100 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
The set-up: Toledo finished 21-8, while Ricmond was 13-8. The Rockets finished averaging 81.3 PPG, whiel conceding 71.4. The Spiders average 75.6 PPG, while allowing only 69.3. The pick: Richmond ended the season by losing three straight, but this is a deep and talented Spiders team which comes from the much tougher conference. Toledo has been great no doubt, but its competition has to be called into question here, as its offensive numbers are skewed due to that talent level faced. I think Richmond can win this one outright, but in the end I'll grab the points. This is a 10* DESTRUCTION on Richmond. |
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03-14-21 | Ohio State v. Illinois OVER 150 | Top | 88-91 | Win | 100 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
The set-up: Two hungry teams collide in the Big Ten Championship game. Illinois beat No. 5 Iowa 82-71, while Ohio State upset No. 3 Michigan with a 68-67 victory. Ohio State jumped out to an early lead, but the Buckeyes faltered late and allowed Michigan back into it. Duane Washington Jr. was a stand out with 24 points, six boards and four assists. Overall the Buckeyes average 77 PPG, while allowing 70.3. The pick: Ohio State is going to have its hands full today with one of the Nation's top offenses, as the Fighting Illini average 81 PPG, while allowing 68.6. Ohio State is very efficent offensively, ranking fifth in the KenPom rankings in shooting splits and in free-throw shooting. Expect these two highly effective offenses to push this total well "over" once it's all said and done. This is a 10* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the OVER Ohio State/Illinois. |
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03-13-21 | Ohio State v. Michigan OVER 144.5 | Top | 68-67 | Loss | -114 | 7 h 23 m | Show |
The set-up: Michigan advanced to the semi finals with a 79-66 win over Maryland. Ohio State has won two straight in the Conference tournament to advance, most recently an 87-78 OT win over Purdue to advance. Michigan won the lone regular season battle on the road between the teams, a 92-87 thriller and I'm expecting a similar style battle, and ultimately higher-scoring contest here as well. Ohio State has gotten out to two early big leads so far in the tournament, only to then allow its opponent to get back into the contest. The Buckeyes will look to avoid that here, and they'll have to match pace obviously with the high-flying Wolverines. The pick: Ohio State averages 77.3 PPG, while Michigan averages 76.6. Each is adept defensively as well, but their strengths lie on the offensive end. And I believe it'll be these offenses on full display on Saturday afternoon as each side gets out and pushes the pace from start to finish. This number is a little low. This is a 10* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the OVER Buckeyes/Wolverines. |
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03-12-21 | Maryland v. Michigan OVER 133.5 | Top | 66-79 | Win | 100 | 19 h 40 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams have been playing to a whole lot of "unders" of late, but I believe that has now pushed this O/U number a little bit too low. Both regular season matchups between these teams flew well "over" the number, and I absolutely expect that again to be the case here. The pick: Yes, these are two great defenses, but these offenses are loaded with talent as well. The trends/numbers support our theory this morning as well, as note that Maryland has seen the total go "over in seven of its last ten after holding its previous opponent to under 60 points in a SU/ATS victory, while Michigan has seen the total soar "over" in eight of its last 12 after playing to five or more straight "unders" in a row. This number is low, the play is the over. This is a 10* BIG TEN TOURNEY TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER Maryland/Michigan. |
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03-11-21 | South Carolina +7 v. Ole Miss | Top | 59-76 | Loss | -105 | 31 h 14 m | Show |
The set-up: South Carolina plays with revenge here in the Tournament after losing the only regualr season matchup with Ole Miss by a score of 81-74. While the Gamecocks lost that contest by seven, I expect this one to come right down to the wire, where whichever team has its hands on the ball last will come out on top. South Carolina lost its final two games of the regular season, but it played the Rebels competitively in the regular season and I expect that to happen again here. The pick: Ole Miss has a significant advantage on the defensive side of the ball, but the Rebels are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight neutral site games as a favorite in the +6 to +9 points range as well. I like SC to battle tough and to at the very least, take this one down to the final moments. Grab the points. This is an 8* SITUATIONAL TOURNEY BLOWOUT on South Carolina. |
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03-11-21 | Oklahoma State v. West Virginia -2.5 | Top | 72-69 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 16 m | Show |
The set-up: Oklahoma State just upset the Mountaineers 85-80 as ten-point dogs, but after winning six of their final seven games down the stretch of the regular season, I look for the Cowboys to finally take a step back here. Overall Oklahoma State averages a decent 76.7 PPG, but it concedes 72.3. The pick: WVU is etter on both end of the floor, averaging 77.6 PPG, while allowing 72.1. The Cowboys have actually won four out of the last seven in this series, so the Mountaineers have added incentive in this matchup. Finally note that WVU is 7-2 ATS in its last nine in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent in which it allowed 85 or more points in. Lay the short points. This is a 10* BIG 12 BEST OF THE BEST on West Virginia. |
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03-10-21 | Kansas State v. TCU OVER 129 | Top | 71-50 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 56 m | Show |
The set-up: The Horned Frogs are allowing 71.2 PPG. K-State and TCU play at slower paces, but all signs point to this opening conference tournament game being a bit more wide open.  The pick: And that's because note, K-State has seen the total go "over" the number in seven of its last ten after playing to five or more straight "unders" in a row, while TCU has seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of its last 12 in trying to revenge a loss to an opponent in which it scored 55 points or less in. This number is now a little too low, the play is the over. This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the OVER K-State/TCU. |
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03-09-21 | Boston College v. Duke UNDER 153.5 | Top | 51-86 | Win | 100 | 25 h 6 m | Show |
The set-up: Boston College enters this game with a 4-15 record, losing by four to Miami on the road in its last game. Duke enters with an 11-11 record, falling by 18 points on the road in its previous outing. BC has been terrible this season, on both ends of the court. The pick: This has been Duke's worst year in memory as well, as it enters the Tournament on a three-game slide. Duke still has an oppportunity to make the Big Dance though if it can win a couple games in the Conference Tournament, so here's the perfect opponent to get untracked against. I think Duke doubles down on the defensive end now that the Tournament is here and I look for this total to sneak under once the final buzzer blares. This is a 10* ACC TOURNEY TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER BC/Duke. |
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03-08-21 | North Dakota State v. South Dakota UNDER 141 | Top | 79-75 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 10 m | Show |
The set-up: This is the Summit League Tournament. South Dakota State is 14-10 and it's coming off a win over UM Kansas on Sunday to advance. The Bison average only 69.3 PPG, but they make up for it on the other end by conceding just 67.2. The pick: South Dakota advanced by beating Western Illinois. The Coyotes average 75.6 pPG, while allowing 72. Both teams though have struggled with offensive consistency in this position, as evidenced by the fact that North Dakota State has seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last 12 games following a SU win and on zero days rest, while South Dakota has seen the total go "under" in nine of its last 13 after scoring 85 points or more in a SU/ATS victory in its last outing. I expect each team to double-down on the defensive end here, as each comes in tired after their respective victories on Sunday. This number is indeed high. This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER North Dakota State/South Dakota. |
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03-07-21 | Michigan v. Michigan State +11 | Top | 64-70 | Win | 100 | 31 h 12 m | Show |
The set-up: These teams played on Thursday and the Wolverines managed the 69-50 victory. Michigan is still in hunt for the No. 1 seed in the Big Dance, but with the regular season title wrapped up and the Big Ten Tournament to now look ahead too, I do indeed believe that the Wolverines will get caught looking past their lowly opponent today. The pick: Michigan State could earn a spot in the NCAA Tournament with an upset win today. It's also senior night at Michigan State. There's a lot on the line today for the home side. Revenge from the immediate loss. Senior night. A spot in the Big Dance on the line. Michigan isn't going to lose this game, but I believe the conditions are definitely right for a much more competitive battle than what Las Vegas is trying to lead us to believe. This is a few too many points to be giving up, so make sure to grab as many as you can. This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on Michigan State. |
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03-06-21 | UNLV v. Wyoming | Top | 69-80 | Loss | -105 | 30 h 20 m | Show |
The set-up: The Rebels lost to No. 19 SDSU last time out. With the victory, the Aztecs claimed the MWC regular season title. Despite that though, UNLV has been playing well of late, winning three of its last five. Overall the Rebels have averaged 69.7 PPG this season, while allowing 67.3. The pick: Wyoming is ripe for the picking here after having four of its last seven games canceled or postponed due to COVID. Most recently the Cowboys lost 72-59 to Utah State. Wyoming has poor numbers, averaging 75.4 PPG, while allowing 75.9. The Rebels are playing better and have a golden opportunity to close out strong against this disorganized Wyoming side. A great situational spot wager on UNLV. This is a 10* MOUNTAIN WEST GAME OF THE MONTH on UNLV. |
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03-05-21 | Ball State v. Toledo UNDER 153 | Top | 70-89 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 27 m | Show |
The set-up: Both offenses can for sure "light it up," but this total is just too high in our opinion now. The total earlier in the year between these clubs was set at 147, and it did go "over" in the final seconds of that contest, but I don't see that happening again here. Ball State has scored at least 90 points over its last three games, but that offensive output is unsustainable now. The pick: Both teams are poor at rebounding, so second chance points are going to be hard to come by (also note that Toledo does a great job of limiting its fouling.) Ball State is second best in the conference as well in defending the three ball. When you add it all up, this total is indeed a little high, definitely considering how competitive I'm expecting it to be. This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Ball State/Toledo. |
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03-04-21 | Canisius v. Siena -6 | Top | 66-73 | Win | 100 | 27 h 41 m | Show |
The set-up: Canisius is 6-4 and Siena is 11-3. The Griffins are 5-1 in their last six, but they're coming off a loss in their last outing to Fairfield. Canisius has had to deal with several COVID postponements this season The pick: The Saints enter having won three straight. Sienna is better at home than on the road, coming in having gone 9-4-1 ATS in its last 14 in friendly confines. I can't trust the Griffins on the road. The Saints haven't been great against the spread, but they've been playing really well lately, scoring 68 or more points in three straight wins and allowing 70 or less at the same time. I look for the Saints to pull away down the stretch for a comfortable cover. This is a 10* MID-MAJOR MAULING on Siena. |
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03-03-21 | Fordham +7.5 v. George Washington | Top | 49-53 | Win | 100 | 7 h 55 m | Show |
The set-up: This is the first round of the A-1 Championship. George Washington crushed Fordham 71-47 back on December 30th, but I think the hungry Rams can keep this one much more competitive now that the Tournament is here. Fordham won't be lacking for motivation after two straight losses. The Rams average only 52 PPG, while the Colonials average 69.7. The pick: Fordham's defense has been decent though, conceding just 67.6 PPG. Of course, when you score less than you allow, it's hard to win on most nights. The Colonials though lost four of their last five games down the stretch and have zero momentum here. George Washington's numbers over the last month are so terrible, that they're now comparable to Fordham's. In this battle of bottom feeders, I'm going to grab the points and expect it to be much closer than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. This is a 10* DESTRUCTION on Fordham. |
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03-02-21 | IUPU Ft Wayne +7.5 v. Cleveland State | Top | 104-108 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
The set-up: Fort Wayne enters the Horizon League Tournament with an 8-14 record. The Mastadons enter with momentum as well afte rwinning two of three, most recently a victory over Green Bay. The Vikings are 16-7 and they're won two of their last three as well. The pick: Cleveland State though has been off since February 20th, when it defeated this very Purdue Fort Wayne team by a score of 67-55. The longer two week lay off isn't going to help with chemistry and note that the Mastadons are 5-1 ATS in their last six following an ATS victory. I expect a battle until the final moments, so grab as many points as you can. This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Purdue Fort Wayne. |
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03-01-21 | Florida International +17.5 v. Western Kentucky | Top | 59-71 | Win | 100 | 5 h 28 m | Show |
The set-up: Clearly WKU is the better team. The Hilltoppers are 16-5, but I don't think they're going to be able to cover this large spread. The FIU Panthers are 9-15. FIU won't be lacking for motivation after losing six in a row. The Panthers average 74.9 PPG, and they allow 76. The pick: WKU comes in complacent here after winning seven of its last eight, including a 91-58 blowout victory over FIU in its last outing. Winning can lead to complacency (especially at the Collegiate level), and that's what I'm expecting here. With a final home series vs. fourth place ODU up next, this also sets up as a "look-ahead" spot for the home side. I like FIU to keep this one a lot closer than what this spread would suggest. This is a 10* DESTRUCTION on Florida International. |
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02-28-21 | Nevada v. Utah State -8 | Top | 66-87 | Win | 100 | 27 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: The Aggies took the first game on Friday night by a score of 75-72. This is a battle between the third and fifth ranked teams. This game means much more to Utah State at this point though, because its still currently on the outside of the NCAA Tournament looking in. Utah State has already moved into third though after Boise State lost to SDSU. Utah State needs to win its last three games and it has a chance to run down Colorado State still. The pick: Nevada played well and covered two nights ago, but previous to that it hadn't played since early February due to COVID issues. I think the Wolfpack get caught flat-footed here now in this second contest and vs. this determined home side. Nevada gave its best shot and came up short last time out and with a chance to end their Tournament hopes, I like the Aggies to find a way to deliver the goods. This is a 10* ULTIMATE DESTRUCTION on Utah State. |
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02-27-21 | Charlotte +5 v. UTEP | Top | 47-70 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
The set-up: The 49ers are third in the Conference USA and 47th in the country in scoring defense, limiting their opposition to just 64.9 PPG. Charlotte is also proficient from the charity stripe, ranked third in the conference. Charlotte took both meetings last year, this is the first this season. However note that the 49ers lost to UTEP 57-53 the last time these teams played in El Paso back in 2019, so the visiting side won't be taking anything for granted. The pick: The Miners are 10-10 overall and 6-8 in league play. UTEP averages 71 PPG, and it allows 69.6. Note though that Charlotte has done extremely well in this spot for bettors, going 7-2 ATS in its last nine conference road games as an underdog in the +4.5 to +6.5 points range. This one is going to come down to the final moments, so I'm grabbing the points. This is a 10* COACH'S CORNER on Charlotte. |
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02-25-21 | Miami-OH -5 v. Western Michigan | Top | 74-66 | Win | 100 | 20 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: Miami Ohio has won two straight and I like the Red Hawks to continue to push hard with the end of the regular season just around the corner. WMU though enters having lost two in a row. WMU has had three of its last five games postponed due to COVID, and teams having to deal with these issues have almost always struggled in every circumstance. The Broncos only average 63.5 PPG. The pick: WMU lost to Miami Ohio a few weeks ago and only managed 56 points in that one. Miami Ohio comes to town off its best game of the entire seaosn as well, smoking Central Michigan 96-54. Finally note that WMU is just 1-5 ATS in its last six home games vs. a team with a losing road record, while Miami Ohio is 3-1-1 ATS in its last five vs. a team with a losing straight-up record. Lay the points, expect a comfortable cover. This is a 10* MAC DESTRUCTION on Miami Ohio. |
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02-24-21 | South Carolina +5.5 v. Mississippi State | Top | 48-69 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 10 m | Show |
The set-up: I like betting on motivated teams. There's only a handful of games remaining in the regualr season and South Carolina will be eager to snap a five-game slide. Most recently the Gamecocks enter off a 93-78 home loss to Missouri as 3.5 point underdogs. This is also a revenge game for South Carolina, which lost 75-59 in Columbia as a 2.5 point underdog back on February 6th. Ovearll South Carolina averages 74.2 PPG, while allowing 78.4. The pick: Mississippi State is going to get caught complacent here, as it just revenged an earlier loss to rival Ole Miss in its last outing. Teh Bulldogs average only 70.1 PPG, while allowing 66.4. I think the home side comes out flat here after its big win and I think the hungrier revenge minded visiting team will at the very least, keep this one close enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door. Grab the poins. This is a 10* REVENGE ELITE OF THE ELITE on South Carolina. |
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02-23-21 | Georgia Tech v. Virginia Tech -2.5 | Top | 69-53 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 27 m | Show |
The set-up: The Hokies are coming off an OT win at Miami, and after surviving that near disaster, I like them to come in focussed here vs. this dangerous Georgia Tech side. Virginia Tech hasn't playes since February 9th, but it's desperate for a win here. Georiga Tech has been playing well against some good teams, but it keeps coming up short. Overall the Jackets allow 67.2 PPG. The pick: Virginia Tech is dealing with a couple injuries, but with so much time off to prepare, I don't see this being an issue at all. I think Georgia Tech is primed for a letdown here vs. a desperate Hokies side. These teams haven't played this year, but VT does play with revenge as well after falling 76-57 to the Jackets last season. I'm laying the short points, but expecting a major blowout! This is a 10* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Virginia Tech. |
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02-22-21 | Texas Tech -1 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 69-74 | Loss | -119 | 28 h 58 m | Show |
The set-up: They say revenge is a dish best served cold. Oklahoma State won this game by eight points on the road as an 8.5 point underdog in mid January. The Red Raiders are still ranked, but after back-to-back losses, this is now a "must win" game. The Red Raiders average 73.6 PPG, while allowing 62.9. The Cowboys are primed for a letdown here after winning five of their last six. Oklahoma State averages 75.8 PPG, while allowing 70.6. The pick: Texas Tech is 7-2 ATS in its last nine in trying to revenge an in-season home loss of five or more points to an opponent as well. Texas Tech's defense, combined with the stellar play of Mac McClung is the difference-maker. Lay the points. This is a 10* REVENGE BEST OF THE BEST on Texas Tech. |
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02-21-21 | Maryland +4.5 v. Rutgers | Top | 68-59 | Win | 100 | 22 h 16 m | Show |
The set-up: The Terrapins are on the road to face Rutgers, and they come to town on top form, having won three straight, most recently getting the better of Nebraska 79-71. The Scarlet Knights are ahead of the Terps in the standings, but they come in off a 71-64 road loss at Michigan. Maryland's defense has been great though this season, allowing just 65.6 PPG this year. Rutgers hasn't been quite as stout, allowing 68.1 PPG. The pick: Rutgers does have the rebounding advantage, and it produces more steals per game, but note that it's just 2-7 ATS in its last nine after scoring 65 points or less in a SU road loss in its last outing. In a contest which I see being decided by whichever of these team's has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points. This is a 10* BLOWOUT DESTRUCTION on Maryland. |
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02-20-21 | Texas Tech +2 v. Kansas | Top | 61-67 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 3 m | Show |
The set-up: Kansas is now 16-7 after its 59-41 win over K-State on Wednesday. Texas Tech returns to action after an 82-71 loss to WVU on February 9th to fall to 14-6 overall. It was a tough loss for the Red Raiders, who had two games postponed. Not due to COVID issues though, but rather weather related. Because of this, I think it in fact works in favor of Texas Tech. Overall Texas Tech averages 74.2 PPG, while allowing 62.7. The pick: The Jayhawks average 74 PPG, while allowing 66.2. Kansas is coming off the satisfying win over its rival and note that it's only 1-4 ATS in its last five vs. teams with winning records. Also note that the road team is 5-2 ATS in its last seven head-to-head meetings. Four of the Jayhawks last five wins have come against bottom feeders. Expect the Red Raiders to pull off the minor upset here, but grab as many points as you can. This is a 10* DESTRUCTION on Texas Tech. |
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02-19-21 | Cleveland State v. IUPU Ft Wayne +5 | Top | 68-75 | Win | 100 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
The set-up: Cleveland State is 15-6 and IPFW is 6-13. The Mastadons play their final two regular season games here and I like them to at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. The Mastadons had lost eight straight against the spread before their 72-70 loss to Youngstown State last time out, proving that they're still trying to post victories here at the end of the season and remain competitive. The pick: These teams played twice at Cleveland State earlier in the year and the Vikings won both games. Both games were competitive though, 63-61 and 89-80. I expect another battle until the end, meaning I'll definitely be grabbing as many points as I can! This is a 10* COACH'S CORNER on Purdue Fort Wayne. |
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02-18-21 | Iowa v. Wisconsin OVER 144.5 | Top | 77-62 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 59 m | Show |
The set-up: Iowa has won two a row to move to 9-5 in Big Ten play. Iowa most recently hammered Michigan State 88-58 on Saturday. Wisconsin though enters having lost two straight to fall go 9-6 in conference play. Most recently the Badgers lost 67-59 to Michigan. The Badgers will have to push the pace here though to keep up with Iowa's high-flying offense which enters averaging 87.4 PPG. The Hawkeyes aren't nearly as good on the defensive side though, allowing 73.5 PPG. The pick: The Badgers are averaging 70.3 PPG, while conceding 62.6. Wisconsin though should be noted that it's seen the total go "over" the number in ten of its last 14 after two or more SU losses in a row. I look for Iowa to push the pace and for the hungry Badgers to respond. Look for this total to fly over sooner, rather than later. This is a 10* BIG TEN TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the OVER Iowa/Wisconsin. |
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02-17-21 | Mercer v. East Tennessee State OVER 139 | Top | 71-64 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 23 m | Show |
The set-up: Mercer is 12-8 and East Tennessee State is 12-9. The Bears average 79.1 PPG, which is pretty good, but they allow 74.3, which isn't particularly great. East Tennessee State will try to take advantage here, as it averages 70 PPG, while allowing 65.1. The pick: The "over" though is 7-3 in the Bears last ten road games and I'm definitely anticipating a more wide open contest here, where each teams pushes the pace from the opening tip, until the final horn. A faster pace = more shots and more shots = more points. Look for these two front runners to eclipse this posted total sooner, rather than later. This is a 10* TTOAL DESTRUCTION on the OVER Mercer/East Tennessee State. |
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02-16-21 | Austin Peay v. SE Missouri State +6.5 | Top | 81-86 | Win | 100 | 26 h 58 m | Show |
The set-up: Austin Peay is 13-8, while Southeast Missouri State is 7-14. These teams played at Austin Peay a few nights ago and the Governors hammered the Redhawks 78-63. But with a game at 17-5 Eastern Kentucky up next, I think the visiting side will have a much more difficult time duplicating its offensive performance against this revenge-minded SE Missouri State team on the road. After winning five of seven, and with the upcoming two-game series vs. Eastern Kentucky, this one sets up as a trap for the visitors. The pick: The Redhawks are the "hungrier" side here, as they look to snap a three-game losing streak. The Governors are the deeper, more experienced team, but this situation favors the home side. I'll stop short in predicting an outright upset, but everything points to this one coming right down to the wire. This is a 10* PLAY-BOOK on SE Missouri State. |
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02-15-21 | Virginia v. Florida State -1 | Top | 60-81 | Win | 100 | 26 h 59 m | Show |
The set-up: Virginia sits atop the conference after taking out UNC 60-48 at 11-1 thus far. Florida State enters of a momentum-building 92-85 OT win over Wake Forest and it's now 11-3 overall and 7-2 in ACC action. The Cavaliers of course get the job done with their smothering defensive play (58.8 per contest conceded), as they enter averaging 69.9 PPG. The pick: The Seminoles average 79.1 PPG, while conceding just 69.4. This is a team which likes to get down and dirty defensively as well, but it's their up-tempo pace on offense which I think UVA will have difficulties matching. Especially on the road. Yes, this is a much-improved UVA team, one of the best that FSU has seen all year. But the said can also be said for the Cavaliers, on the road facing an underrated and dangerous FSU side. I'm going with FSU to win at home in this one. This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Florida State. |
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02-14-21 | Oregon State v. Arizona State -5.5 | Top | 73-75 | Loss | -115 | 26 h 21 m | Show |
The set-up: This is a revenge game for ASU after it fell 80-79 at Oregon State in the final moments. Oregon State though is just 10-9 overall with a 6-7 league record, entering this one on a two-game slide, most recently falling 70-61 on the road to the Arizona Wildcats. Arizona State is only 6-9 overall and 3-6 in conference play. Most recently the Sun Devils lost 75-64 to Oregon on Thursday. The pick: Overall these teams numbers are very similar. ASU's offense is slightly better and Oregon State's defense is a little better. The back-to-back road games isn't doing Oregon State any favors though. Home floor, combined with the revenge factor (note that ASU is 7-2 ATS in its last nine in trying to revenge an in-season road loss to an opponent in which it allowed 80 or more points in. Lay the points, expect a blowout. This is a 10* PLAYBOOK on Arizona State. |
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02-13-21 | UNLV +9.5 v. Boise State | Top | 59-61 | Win | 100 | 29 h 7 m | Show |
The set-up: It's an immediate revenge scenario for lowly UNLV, which lost 78-66 to the Broncos on Thursday. I expect a tighter contest here and while I'll stop short in calling for an outright upset, everything points to this one coming right down to the wire in my opinion. Bryce Hamilton is a matchup issue for any team. If Hamilton can get any type of support, the Rebels have a legitimate shot at winning this game outright (he finished with 26 points on Thursday.) Overall UNLV allows just 68.1 PPG. The pick: The Broconos average 78.4 PPG. They shot 50 percent in the win on Thursday. Boise State previous to this series lost two straight to Nevada, while splitting with Colorado. Consistency from game-to-game has been an issue of late for Boise State and I think that pattern continues here. Again, I don't think it'll have such a huge collapse here that it loses outright, but I do think the this line is inflated. Expect the hungrier team to keep this one interesting down the stretch and grab the points. This is a 10* MOUNTAIN-WEST GAME OF THE MONTH on UNLV. |
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02-12-21 | Northern Kentucky v. Green Bay UNDER 141 | Top | 82-86 | Loss | -117 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams have been playing to plenty of "overs" of late and I now think that this O/U line is a bit too high. North Kentucky has seen the total go "over" in six straight, while Wisconsin Green Bay has seen the total go "over" in five straight (that was after seeing it go "under" in five straight.) The Phoenix average 71.4 PPG, while UNK averages 71.1. When you add those two figures up, we land right on this posted number essentially. So why is today's going "under?"Â The pick: Northern Kentucky is locked into third spot in the conference right now, while Green Bay is near the bottom. However, not only do I strongly feel that this O/U line is inflated, but note that UNK has seen the total go "under" in eight of its last 11 road games after two more straight ATS covers in a row, while Wisconsin Green Bay has seen the total dip below in 14 of its last 20 home games after playing to five or more straight "overs" in a row. I think the home side plays UNK tough here at home and I expect that to result finally in a lower-scoring "under." This is a 10* Horizon League TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the UNDER UNK/Green Bay. |
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02-11-21 | Weber State v. Montana +1.5 | Top | 67-80 | Win | 100 | 26 h 34 m | Show |
The set-up: All six of Montana's Big Sky losses have been decided in the final seconds, with three by three points or fewer, and none being by more than six points (which was a double OT defeat). In short, the Grizzlies win/loss record could easily be a lot better if a couple lucky bounces went their way. It's very interesting to note as well, that over its last three series, Montana has won the first game, only to lose the second two days later. The pick: Weber State is primed for a letdown after four-straight victories. With a home and home set vs. Eastern Washington next week, the road ahead doesn't get any easier for the Grizzlies. This is a crucial contest for the season and I don't think that home court advantage can be looked past. Montana is the hungrier dog in this fight and I like it to deliver on home-court. This is a 10* PLAY-BOOK on Montana. |
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02-10-21 | Wake Forest v. Boston College +1 | Top | 69-65 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 3 m | Show |
The set-up: A couple of bottom feeders going head-to-head here, but I don't think that the home court advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular case. Both teams come in off losses. Wake lost 79-58 to the Fighting Irish, while Boston College lost 81-65 to NC State. The Notre Dame loss snapped a five-game ATS win streak as well for the Demon Deacons and I think they'll take another step back here as well. Overall Wake averages 69.2 PPG, while allowing 68.7. The pick: Boston College returned to action after missing three weeks in the loss to the Wolfpack, and it looked ugly early, as NC State went on a 37-3 run at one point, before the Eagles close the first half at 44-21. BC was without a couple of players as well in that one, but the team looked much stronger as the game went on and considering the circumstances and the way the contest opened, the Eagles definitley pulled it together quickly and finished that one strong. And I feel there's no reason not to believe they can't carry that momentum over here as well. With the rust of a few weeks off now gone, look for BC to come out much faster this time around. The Eagles average 72.1 PPG, while allowing 78.4, but note tha they're 7-2 ATS in their last nine home gaems after allowing 80 or more points in a SU/ATS loss in their last outing. I like BC to find a way to get the job done here. This is a 10* UNDERDOG GAME OF THE YEAR on Boston College. |
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02-09-21 | Creighton -7 v. Georgetown | Top | 63-48 | Win | 100 | 30 h 39 m | Show |
The set-up: Creighton has been struggling against the spread for bettors, losing three in a row. One of those losses was an outright loss at home to Georgetown just last week. The Blue Jays were favored by 14 points in that one. Georgetown has a losing record, but it's 8-6 ATS overall this season. The Hoyas have covered in five straight games, including in their last one when they lost 84-74 at Villanova as 13.5 point underdogs. The pick: After that close call, I think the Hoyas definitely take a step back here. Creighton is ready to avenge last week's setback and the spread it has to cover here is almost cut in half of what it was in that contest. Much more manageable and realistic and I expect the Blue Jays to deliver in this fantastic situational opportunity. Lay the points. This is a 10* BIG EAST GAME OF THE YEAR on Creighton. |
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02-08-21 | Air Force v. UNLV OVER 129.5 | Top | 64-69 | Win | 100 | 29 h 17 m | Show |
The set-up: This is the second game of a two-game slate. The firsg game went "under," but I expect more of a "shootout" here. The Runnin Rebels took the first game 68-58. UNLV is now 4-5 in league play. Air Force is 4-13 overall now and only 2-11 in conerence action. Air Force actually shot 47 percent from range in the loss, but only 43 percent from the rest of the field. Look for the Falcons to be much more efficient here. The pick: Bryce Hamilton had 22 points and 13 boards for the Rebels in the latest victory and I expect him to have another monster game tonight. Expect a much looser, faster-paced game here after the first, slower-paced, tighter affair. Finally note that Air Force has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 11 after scoring 60 or less points in a SU road loss in its last outing. This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER Air Force/UNLV. |
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02-06-21 | Toledo v. Ball State +8.5 | Top | 67-81 | Win | 100 | 18 h 27 m | Show |
The set-up: Toledo is 16-4 and Ball State is just 6-9. Outright win? I'm not predicting that, but I do definitely think the stage is set for a much more competitive battle than what this spread would suggest. Toledo has won five straight, including a 15 point victory over Akron last time out. Winning, especially at the College level, can lead to complacency. The pick: Ball State won't be lacking for motivation here, as it's facing the top team in the league on its own floor, while it will also be trying to erase a four-game slide. Last time out the Cardinals fell by 20 points to the Bulls. Toledo has hit a very "vanilla" part of its schedule, with NIU up next and I think it finally comes out a bit flat here. I'll point out as well that Ball State is 7-2 ATS in its last nine home games after scoring 60 or less points in a SU/ATS loss in its previous outing. Grab the points. This is a 10* MAC GAME OF THE MONTH on Ball State. |
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02-05-21 | Marshall v. Old Dominion +4 | Top | 81-82 | Win | 100 | 27 h 15 m | Show |
The set-up: Marshall's won two in a row, but I think it'll stumble here vs. a hungry ODU side which is rested, as it's had its last four games postponed due to COVID issues. Previous to winning two in a row, Marshall had dropped two in a row. Overall the Herd is 3-3 in Conference play. Previous to its break, ODU had won four of five. ODU enters are 4-2 in league play. The pick: The Monacrchs only allow 68.5 PPG this season, and despite being 5-2 on the road this year, I think that Marshall will have a difficult time replicating its last two offensive performances. Not only is ODU a perfect 5-0 SU at home this year, but it's also 5-1 ATS in its last six home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. I'm banking on ODU to quickly shake off any rust and while the outright win is clearly not out of the question, in the end I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can. This is a 10* CONFERENCE USA GAME OF THE MONTH on Old Dominion. |
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02-04-21 | Belmont v. Eastern Illinois OVER 149.5 | Top | 89-61 | Win | 100 | 28 h 1 m | Show |
The set-up: The 18-1 Belmont Bruins are going to come out and push the pace here in my opinion vs. the 6-13 Eastern Illinois Panthers. The Bruins are off a win over Murray State and they come in having won 15 in a row. Belmont barely got by the Racers though 72-71, and because of that I expect the Bruins to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish tonight. The pick: Eastern Illinois also comes in with momentum, snapping a four-game slide with a 70-61 over SIUE. And that's significant, as Eastern Illinois has seen the total fly "over" the number in ten of its last 14 after scoring 70 or more points in a SU/ATS vicotry in its last outing. The stage is set for a "shootout" in this one, so the play is the "over." This is a 10* TOTAL BEST OF THE BEST on the OVER Belmont/Eastern Illinois. |
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02-03-21 | Houston v. East Carolina +16.5 | Top | 73-82 | Win | 100 | 28 h 47 m | Show |
The set-up: Outright win? I'm not predicting that. But I do think the stage is set for a much more competitive battle than what this spread would suggest. Houston is 15-1 overall and 10-1 in AAC action. The Cougars have won eight in a row. Winning can lead to complacency, especially among college athletes. East Carolina enters under the radar and hungry to break out of a six-game slide, most recently falling to Tulsa 77-68. Houston's a good team, most recently beating SMU 70-48. With a week off before a contest at USF though, I think the Cougars will come out flat in the second half as they get caught looking ahead. They're in no fear of actually losing this game outright, but I also don't think they'll run up this score, instead leaving the back door open for a nice cover for the hungry home side. The pick: ECU average 61 PPG and it concedes 69.3. Hence its poor overall record. The Pirates though are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games as an underdog in the +15.5 to +17.5 points range and as stated, they're clearlier the "hungrier" dog in this fight. I expect Houston to indeed get caught looking ahead here. No upset, but tighter than what this spread would suggest. Grab the points. This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on East Carolina. |
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02-02-21 | Butler v. Marquette OVER 130 | Top | 67-70 | Win | 100 | 26 h 0 m | Show |
The set-up: These two teams struggle with offensive consistency and are much better on the defensive end. Neither team has played to many "overs" of late, but I think that the value has now finally swung the other way on this total because of that. Butler is 5-9 and 4-7 in conference play and it enters off two straight losses. the Bulldogs won't be lacking for motivation. Most recently they lost 68-55 to Xavier. Marquette is 8-9 overall and it enter son a three-game losing streka, most recently falling to St. John's by a score of 75-73. One player for Butler to keep your eyes on today is Jair Bolden, who is averaging 12.6 points and 3.9 boards per game so far. The pick: One player to keep your eyes on for the Golden Eagles is Cherry Garcia, who is averaging 12.6 points and 7.1 boards per game. I think each team is going to push the pace as each tries to earn an elusive victory. This number is definitely much too low, as note that Butler has seen the total go "over" the number in seven of its last nine conference road games after being held to 55 points or fewer in a SU/ATS loss in its last outing. Look for this total to fly well over as it comes down the stretch. This is a 10* BIG-EAST TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER Butler/Marquette. |
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02-01-21 | Murray State v. SE Missouri State OVER 132 | Top | 77-60 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
The set-up: I'm expecting a faster-paced and ultimately higher-scoring game here once it's all said and done. Murray State is 7-8 overall. The Racers had won two straight before falling to Belmont last time out. Southeast Missouri State is 6-10 this year. The Redhawks though are playing their best ball of the season right now, with consecutive wins over SIU Edwardsville and Eastern Illinois. Murray State will be especially motivated here to get back into the winners circle after its tight 72-71 loss to Belmont on Saturday. The pick: The Redhawks are coming off a 75-44 win and I think they can build off that offensive performance, as Nana Akenten had 13 points with five rebounds and two assists. These are two hungry teams and this total is just too low. Look for this one to eclipse the posted number as the game comes down the stretch. The is a 10* MISSOURI VALLEY TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the OVER Murray State/Southeast Missouri State. |
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01-31-21 | Middle Tennessee +15 v. UABÂ | Top | 52-63 | Win | 100 | 25 h 45 m | Show |
The set-up: MTSU won't be lacking for motivation here as it tries to break a five-game losing streak. The Blue Raiders average 60.8 PPG, while allowing 67.5. Dontrell Shuler averages 12.6 points and 2.2 boards. The UAB Blazers have won six of their last seven and I think they're going to get caught "looking past" their lowly opponent here and I look for them to leave the back door open just enough for this hungry Blue Raiders team to comfortably sneak through down the stretch. UAB averages 75 PPG and it concedes 58.5. The pick: Betting on sports isn't about simply adding up offensive and defensive averages and then trying to find edges in posted lines, as there are a plethora of other factors to also consider. And that's the case here. Clearly UAB is the better team, but I don't think it'll run up the score here and we definitely don't have to question the Blue Raiders resolve after their extended losing streak now. UAB won this game 70-59 two nights ago as an 11-point favorite, pushing on the number. The Blue Raiders are getting a few more points here, but I expect an even more tightly contested affair this time around. Grab the points. This is a 10* CONFERENCE USA GAME OF THE MONTH on MTSU. |
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01-30-21 | Ball State v. Akron UNDER 146 | Top | 42-74 | Win | 100 | 21 h 13 m | Show |
The set-up: Ball State is going to double down on the defensive end in my opinion after losing four of its last six games. The Cardinals are averaging 70.8 PPG, but conceding 73.2. To do that though, Ball State is going to have to upset Akron, which enters on a five-game win streak. The Zips average 78.7 PPG, while allowing only 70.4. The pick: Arkon's a favorite in this game for a reason. The Zips are going to shut down this offensively challenged Cardinals team in my opinion. Ball State has also seen the total dip below the posted number in eight of its last 11 road games after back-to-back SU/ATS road losses, while Akron has seen the total dip below the posted number in six of its last nine after a five games or longer ATS unbeaten streak. I think Ball State slows this one down and I expect this total to stay "under" once the final horn sounds. This a 10* MAC TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER Ball State/Akron. |
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01-30-21 | Cal-Irvine v. Hawaii +4 | Top | 53-51 | Win | 100 | 31 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: After six-straight victories, I think that UC Irvine takes a step back here. Hawaii had lost two in a row, before winning in a blowout in its last outing. The Warriors allow 68.5 PPG, while the Anteaters concede just 62.5. UC Irvine's strength of schedule can be question in my opinion, and note that it's just 1-3 on the road so far this season. The pick: Hawaii is 2-2 at home, but it's 7-2 ATS after a 15 points or greater SU/ATS victory in its last outing. Keep your eyes on Casdon Jardine, who leads the Warriors in points and rebounding. UC Irvine has been shaky on the road this year and it now faces a Anteaters team coming off its best performance of the season. Hawaii also plays with revenge here after losing both games in this series last season. While the outright is clearly not out of the question, all signs point to a solid cover at the least. This is a 10* BIG-WEST GAME OF THE YEAR on Hawaii. |
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01-28-21 | Belmont v. Austin Peay +6 | Top | 81-76 | Win | 100 | 27 h 7 m | Show |
The set-up: Outright victory? Maybe. This is a contest which I envision coming right down to the wire, and because of that, I'm going to recommend to grab as many points as you can. I think 16-1 Belmont is going to get caught looking past the 8-5 Austin Peay Governors. Belmont enters off a 114-62 win over SIU-Edwardsville. The Bruins average 83.2 PPG, while allowing 68.3. The pick: Austin Peay likely got caught looking ahead to this game in its last game, falling 76-70 to Jacksonville State. The Governors average 73.5 PPG while allowing 69.7. These teams are very similar on the defensive end, and as I pointed out, I do think this sets up as a bit of a letdown spot for the Bruins, who are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine after scoring 110 or more points in a SU/ATS road victory in their last outing. I smell an upset, but in the end let's grab up the points! The is a 10* UNDERDOG GAME OF THE MONTH on Austin Peay. |
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01-27-21 | Western Carolina +2.5 v. VMI | Top | 61-87 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 6 m | Show |
The set-up: Western Carolina is 7-7 and the VMI Keydets are 8-8. Western Carolina is out to snap a five-game losing streak. The Catamounts average 79.6 PPG, and they concede 78.4. Mason Faulkner is averaging 16 points and 4.8 assists. The pick: The VMI Keydets are averaging 81.4 PPG, while conceding 77.2. The Keydets have split their last six games, but note that they're just 2-6 ATS in their last eight conference home games as a favorite in the +1.5 to +4.5 points range. Finally note that the road team is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 in this series. These teams are evenly matched for sure, but WCU enters as the hungrier side. I look for the Catamounts to find a way to deliver on the road. The is a 10* BLOWOUT OF THE MONTH on Western Carolina. |
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01-26-21 | SIU-Edwardsville v. Eastern Illinois -6.5 | Top | 87-74 | Loss | -115 | 28 h 3 m | Show |
The set-up: SIU is 4-5 and Eastern Illinois is 5-10. THe Cougars are averaging 67.2 PPG, while allowing 74.4. The Panthers are averaging 71.1 PPG and conceding 75.8. Eastern Illinois has faced a more difficult schedule and has the advantage of playing at home here. The pick: Eastern Illinois has lost five straight. Losing isn't fun. Winning is. THe Panthers though have an unbelievable opportunity here, as not only are the Cougars a bad team, but they also haven't even played since December 10th. I look for the hungrier, more in "game shape" Panthers to finally figure it out and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. The is a 10* ELITE OF THE ELITE on Eastern Illinois. |
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01-25-21 | Southern v. Alabama State OVER 129.5 | Top | 64-66 | Win | 100 | 29 h 25 m | Show |
The set-up: Neither team usually lights up the scoreboard on any given night, but I think these hungry sides will push the pace and eclipse this posted number as the game comes down the stretch. The Southern Jaguars are 3-5 and the Alabama State Hornets are 1-5. Southern had won three straight before a loss to Alabama A&M last time out. Harrison Henderson was a standout with 21 points, ten boards and three assists. The pick: Brandon Battle had 17 points and ten boards in the Hornets 57-52 loss to Alcorn State. The Hornets though have seen the total go "over" the number in eight of their last 11 home games after scoring 55 points or less in a SU/ATS loss in their previous outing. I think Southern pushes the pace and I like the home side to keep pace. This number is just a little low. The is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER Southern/Alabama State. |
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01-24-21 | Davidson -1.5 v. Massachusetts | Top | 69-60 | Win | 100 | 19 h 43 m | Show |
The set-up: Davidson comes in off a 73-58 win over Fordham on Wednesday. It was an 18.5 point favorite and while the Wildcats have been winning, they have failed to cover in three straight. UMass comes in off a 65-46 win at Fordham last week as a nine point favorite. The Wildcats last three wins have been by at least 14 points though and I think they'll pull away for a comfortable cover finally here. The pick: UMass has covered in three straight, and while it does average 82.8 PPG, the Minutemen also concede 75 per contest. Davidson is the more complete team here, definitely better on the defensive end and note that it's 4-1 ATS in its last five on the road. The Minutemen are vastly improved, but I think their record has taken advantage of a favorable schedule to this point. I'm laying the points, but expecting a decisive victory. The is a 10* ANNIHILATION on Davidson. |
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01-23-21 | Valparaiso +2 v. Illinois State | Top | 69-60 | Win | 100 | 25 h 11 m | Show |
The set-up: Valparaiso is 3-9, while Illinois State is 5-8. Valparaiso comes in hungry to snap a five-game losing streak. OVerall the Crusaders are averaging 71.5 PPG, while conceding 67.5. The pick: The Redbirds have lost five of their last seven. Overall Illinois State is averaging 76 PPG, while allowing 76.8. Illinois State's issues on the defensive end are going to be the issue here for it. Look for Valparaiso to pull away for the comfortable cover in the second half. This is a 10* MID-MAJOR MAULING on Valpo. |
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01-21-21 | Wichita State v. Memphis -2.5 | Top | 52-72 | Win | 100 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
The set-up: I think Wichita State comes in complacent here after its 19 points win at home over Tulsa, moving it to 8-3. Memphis is 6-3, and it'll be eager to return to form here after losing by one point to Tulsa on the road. The Shockers have covered the spread in all four of their road games this year, but I think that now swings the value to the home side here, as oddsmakers over compenstate in my opinion. The pick: Both teams are decent defensively, and overall they're evenly matched. But the Tigers are the hungrier team here and note that they're 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games after scoring 60 or less points in a SU/ATS road loss in their previous outing. This one has "letdown" written all over it for the Shockers in my opinion. Lay the short points. This is a 10* BLOWOUT ELITE OF THE ELITE on Memphis. |
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01-20-21 | Rhode Island v. Duquesne +5.5 | Top | 69-71 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
The set-up: Duquesne is the "hungrier" team in this matchup after back-to-back losses. The Rams have won two of their last three. The Rams are averaging 74.5 PPG this year, but note that they're a poor 1-4 on the road this season. Duquesne is only averaging 62.8 PPG this year, but note that Dukes are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games after back-to-back SU/ATS losses. The pick: This is also a revenge game for the Dukes after the Rams blew them out in this game last year. The Rams' terrible play on the road is a very real factor here and while I do think the outright win is possible, in the end I'll recommend that you grab as many points as you can. This is a 10* COACH'S CORNER on Duquesne. |
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01-19-21 | Duke -3 v. Pittsburgh | Top | 73-79 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 28 m | Show |
The set-up: Duke is off a 74-67 loss at Virginia Tech in its latest action. It was the Blue Devils first conference loss. A couple of bright spots in defeat were Jeremy Roach, who had 22 points, and Matthew Hurt, who added 20 points and 11 rebounds. That was only the Blue Devils second road game of the year, and they looked shaky, going just 8 of 29 from 3-point range. But now the Blue Devils come to Pittsburgh focussed and hungry to bounce back. The pick: The Panthers enter having won six of their last seven, including two straight, most recently the 96-76 home beating of Syracuse as a four-point dog. Pittsburgh's been playing well of late, but the Blue Devils have done well in this matchup for years, going 8-2 the last ten in the series straight up. That included a 79-67 home win last year. Duke isn't the same Duke team as in year's past, and Pittsburgh is playing really well at the moment, but I think that off the loss to the Hokies, that the correct call in this matchup is for Duke to bounce back. The is a 10* ELITE OF THE ELITE on Duke. |
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01-18-21 | St. John's +10.5 v. Connecticut | Top | 74-70 | Win | 100 | 25 h 35 m | Show |
The set-up: UConn has only played eight games this year, while most other teams have played closer to 14. The Huskies are also without three of their guards due to injury issues. St. John's is averaging 79 PPG, while allowing 78.5. The Huskies have averages 73.13 PPG, while allowing 61.75. The pick: UConn's only loss this year was a 76-74 setback to Creighton. Are the Huskies the better team here? Yes. But the lack of overall play has hampered them overall this year. St. John's has the offense to compete with any team in the nation and I expect it to give the home side everything it can handle today. Probably no outright, but much closer than expected. Grab the points. The is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on St. John's. |
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01-17-21 | Memphis +1 v. Tulsa | Top | 57-58 | Push | 0 | 24 h 25 m | Show |
The set-up: Memphis hasn't played since December 29th, when it beat USF by a score of 58-57. Tulsa is the perfect opponent to get warmed up against, as it's now 7-4 after getting destroyed 72-53 to Wichita State as a 3.5 point dog on Wednesday. This is a revenge game for the Tigers as well after Tulsa scored the 56-49 upset road victory last year. Memphis averages 72.1 PPG, while allowing 64.1. The pick: Tulsa's offense is poor, averaging only 68.7 PPG, while it concedes 61.3. Look for the longer layoff to in fact help here in the final stages of the regular season and expect Memphis to exact its revenge from last year's upset at home. This is a 10* COACH'S CORNER on Memphis. |
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01-16-21 | The Citadel v. VMI UNDER 167 | Top | 103-110 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 4 m | Show |
The set-up: How do you make your O/U picks? What do you base it on? Do you simply look at what each team's point's average is, combined with how much they give up on average and try to figure it out like that? Knowing those stats is just one of the steps that I personally use when making an O/U pick. I also look at what each team has done leading up to that game. I look at the injury report. I look at the past history between each other. And I also look at trends. Both teams have been playing to a lot of high-scoring games of late, but that is helping in driving this posted total a little too high now in my opinion. The pick: Note as well that The Citadel has seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last 11 road games after playing to four or more straight "overs," while VMI has seen the total dip below the posted number in five of its last six home games after allowing 80 or more points in a home loss in its last outing (lost 80-78 to Wofford). For all the reasons listed above, the play is the "under." This is a 10* TOTAL ELITE OF THE ELITE on the UNDER The Citadel/VMI. |
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01-15-21 | Green Bay v. Detroit -3 | Top | 61-86 | Win | 100 | 28 h 16 m | Show |
The set-up: Green Bay started off the season 0-9, but it comes to town having won three straight. Suffice it to say, I expect the Phoenix to finally stumble here after three wins in a row. Most recently Green Bay posted an 87-78 victory over Oakland. Detroit's been off since December 27th, when it lost to Oakland 83-80 as a 1-point favorite to fall to 1-7 overall. The Phoenix have covered or pushed in six straight games, and I can't see that streak continuing here vs. this ultra hungry Mercy side. The pick: Detroit is also 7-2 ATS in its last nine after allowing 80 or more points in a SU/ATS loss in its last outing. The Titans have failed to cover in four straight, but the extra time off will be beneficial here in my opinion. This is the first of two games, and I like the "hungrier" home side to risk life and limb here to defend its turf and to pull away down the stretch. Lay the points. This is a 10* HORIZON LEAGUE GAME OF THE YEAR on Detroit. |
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01-13-21 | La Salle v. George Mason -3 | Top | 42-75 | Win | 100 | 26 h 50 m | Show |
The set-up: George Mason has lost three straight to fall to 5-5 on the year. La Salle had its game against Fordham cancelled, then it most recently lost to UMass. The Explorers are oly averaging 67.6 PPG this year, as La Salle does not have a single player averaging in double-figures this season. The pick: The Patriots have struggled with consistency as well, but they have two players averaging in double figures (keep your eyes on Jordan Miller, who is averaging 15.1 PPG for George Mason). Finally note that the Patriots are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games following a double-digit home loss. Home court advantage can't be overlooked either. I'm laying the points and expecting a decisive home side victory. This is a 10* MID-MAJOR DESTRUCTION on George Mason. |
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01-12-21 | Wisconsin +3.5 v. Michigan | Top | 54-77 | Loss | -101 | 27 h 15 m | Show |
The set-up: I like Wisconsin the underdog here, I think it sets up well for it to keep this one close down the stretch. Michigan has won and covered in four straight. In fact it's 10-0 straight up and 8-2 against the spread. Most recently the Wolverines pulled away for an 82-57 win at home over Minnesota. After this game, Michigan has the rematch with the Gophers in Minnesota this weekend, so it does in a small way set up as a look ahead spot for the home side. Wisconsin has been playing well this year also, it's 10-2 straight-up, but so far it hasn't been as kind to bettors, going just 5-6-1 against the spread. It's actually been trading wins and losses against the spread over its last six games, and while it did win 80-73 in overtime against the Hoosiers in its last outing it didn't cover the nine-point spread. So this pattern continues here, I like the Badgers to bounce back and get a cover here now as well. The pick: These teams last played just before the Pandemic hit in February 2020 and the Badgers managed the 81-74 outright upset in that one. I'll stop short in calling for an outright upset here , but in my opinion, I think everything points to a really tight game. This is a 10* BLOWOUT ELITE OF THE ELITE on Wisconsin. |
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01-11-21 | Boise State v. Wyoming UNDER 149.5 | Top | 83-60 | Win | 100 | 28 h 28 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cowboys are 7-2, but they return home for their first home game since December 17th. Most recently Wyoming splitting with Fresno State last weekend. The Broncos are 10-1 overall and 6-0 in conference play. This is a big game for the Cowboys, who I expect to double-down on the defensive end. BSU has won five-straight in this seris, so not only does Wyoming have motivation in its first home game back in a month, but it also plays with revenge. The pick: And that's important in my equation here, as I believe the last thing the Cowboys will want to do is to turn this one into a "track meet" vs. the high-flying Broncos. Note as well that Boise State has seen the total go "under" the number in seven of its last eight after a six games or longer SU unbeaten streak. This number is a tad high in my opinion. This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Boise State/Wyoming. |
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01-10-21 | Loyola-Chicago v. Indiana State +7.5 | Top | 71-76 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
The set-up: I like the 3-6 Sycamores to fight hard and to comfortably sneak in through the backdoor down the stretch. Loyola is 7-2 and it's won four straight, but winning can breed complacency. Indiana State is for sure the "hungrier" dog in this fight, as it's lost four straight. Twice to Drake and twice to Missouri State. The pick: The Ramblers only scored 57 points in their last game against North Texas and I think they'll have their hands full here against a Sycamore's team that's 7-2 ATS in its last nine after three or more SU/ATS losses in a row. I think this one sets up great for Indiana State in a number of ways. I'm grabbing the points for sure. This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on Indiana State. |
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01-09-21 | USC v. Arizona State +3.5 | Top | 73-64 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 56 m | Show |
The set-up: The Sun Devils hadn't played in three weeks in their 81-75 loss to UCLA in their last game. I think they'll bounce back here though vs. the Trojans, who beat Arizona 87-73 in their latest action. The pick: ASU comes in fresh here, despite the loss last time out. It's the "hungrier" does in this fight as well. With a spread like this, clearly the oddsmakers think these teams are evenly matched, but I think from a situational stand point, it favors the home side. Additionally note that the Trojans are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight after scoring 86 or more points in SU/ATS conference victory in their last outing. While I obviously wouldn't be shocked by an outright upset, in the end I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can. This is a 10* PAC 12 GAME OF THE YEAR on ASU. |
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01-08-21 | North Texas v. Texas-San Antonio +6 | Top | 77-70 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 25 m | Show |
The set-up: After winning three of its last four to return to .500, I think that UNT has a letdown here. Both teams have plenty of issues on both sides of the court. UNT has a decent defense that's conceding 63.5 PPG. UTSA though enters as the hungrier dog in this fight after back-to-back losses to Rice dropped it to 4-5. The pick: The Roadrunners have struggled defensively, but that unit catches a big break today facing the poor offense of UNT. This is the first game of two straight here and I think the desperate home side is the correct call. I think the Roadrunners high-tempo offense keeps them competitive late and while I wouldn't be shocked by an outright upset, in the end I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can. This is a 10* CONF. USA GAME OF THE YEAR on UTSA. |
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01-07-21 | Cincinnati +6 v. SMU | Top | 76-69 | Win | 100 | 27 h 47 m | Show |
The set-up: I like betting on teams which are "hungry" or "desperate." Cincinnati fits that bill perfectly here. The Bearcats are 2-6 overall and 0-3 in conference play. Most recently the fell 70-63 to Tulsa. SMU is 6-1 overall and 2-1 in league play, but that one loss came in their last outing, falling 74-60 to Houston. Here's a great spot for Cincinnati to take advantage of, as I think playing against teams which have been on an extended win streak, and which are coming off their first loss in a long stretch, are at times perfectly primed for another letdown in their next game immediately after that scenario plays out. The pick: Note as well that the Mustangs are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight after a SU/ATS loss of ten or more points, while the Bearcats are 7-3 ATS in their last ten conference road games after three or more SU losses in a row. Grab the points for sure, but don't be shocked for an outright! This is a 10* AAC GAME OF THE YEAR on Cincinnati. |
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01-06-21 | Utah State v. New Mexico +13 | Top | 77-45 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 8 m | Show |
The set-up: Utah State is the better teams, but New Mexico is by far the "hungrier" team in this matchup after dropping each of its first four Mountain West contests. Utah State comes in complacent here vs. its lowly opponent after winning six in a row. This is the start of three straight games in a row vs. each other, which also puts added incentive onto the home side to try and avoid getting swept in this series. The pick: New Mexico won its first three games, then dropped four. But I'll point out that the Lobos four losses cam against Nevada and Boise State, two teams with a combined 16-4 record right now. Utah State on the other hand has played suspect competition to this point, so its numbers are skewed. The underdog is also 4-1 ATS the last five in this series, while the home side is 10-2 ATS the last 12 between these schools. No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points. This is a 10* MOUNTAIN WEST GAME OF THE MONTH on the New Mexico Lobos. |
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01-05-21 | Kansas v. TCU +5 | Top | 93-64 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 21 m | Show |
The set-up: I just played against the Longhorns after their upset win over KU, and now I'm also going to suggest a play against the Jayhawks here in this contest, as I believe they'll still be mentally caught up on their last poor effort. TCU has been great, 9-2 overall and it plays with revenge at home. The pick: Note as well that the Horned Frogs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. These teams are moving in opposite directions and I expect those trends to continue here. While the outright is possible, I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can. This is a 10* play on TCU. |
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01-04-21 | Winthrop v. Charleston Southern +14 | Top | 85-69 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 23 m | Show |
The set-up: Winning can lead to complacency. Especially among young players. Winthrop has jumped out to a big 7-0 start, but I believe it'll finally get caught flat-footed here and leave the door open just wide enough for the hungry home side to sneak in through down the stretch. The Buccanneers are only 1-5. The Eagles are perfect so far, but there have been a few very close calls. The pick: Charleston Southern has been competitive in defeat and it won't be lacking for motivation today. This is a revenge game as well. One player to keep your eyes on tonight for Charleston Southern is Phlandrous Fleming, who managed 19 points with 10 rebounds and three assists in his team's most recent setack to Hampton on December 22nd. Winthrop is the better team, but the overall situation sets up well for the home side. I'm not predicting an outright, but I do think the stage is set for a much more competitive battle than what this spread would suggest. Grab the points. This is a 10* BIG SOUTH GAME OF THE YEAR on Charleston Southern. |
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01-03-21 | Southern Illinois +11.5 v. Drake | Top | 55-73 | Loss | -106 | 25 h 51 m | Show |
The set-up: Drake is 11-0, but it hasn't played since before the New Year and I think it'll come out a bit flat here and look past its lowly opponent. Drake beat Indiana State in back-to-back games most recently, while the Salukis enter off their first loss of the season 84-72 to Evansville. Southern Illinois has six players which average at least 7.9 PPG, led by Marcus Domask with 18.1 per contest. The pick: Drake was down at the half in each of its games vs. the Sycamores, only to come back and not only win, but also go on to cover. The Bulldogs perfect record to this point puts a big red target on their backs - look for this under the radar Salukis side to keep this one much more competitive than what this spread would suggest. This is a 10* UNDERDOG GAME OF THE YEAR on Southern Illinois. |
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01-02-21 | Morehead State v. Murray State OVER 131.5 | Top | 61-56 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
The set-up: I think this one sets up great as a wide-open "shootout." Morehead State comes in motivated to bounce back after a 75-61 loss to Missouri in its latest action. AJ Hicks was a bright spot in the loss with 18 points and seven assists. Overall the Eagles average 75.2 PPG. The pick: Murray State looks to build off its 110-82 win over Bethel in its latest action. Tevin Brown had 18 points. The Racers are averaging a blistering 81.2 PPG and while their defense has been decent, this is one of the best offenses that it's seen so far. I'm expecting an all out war, one which blasts past the posted number sooner, rather than later. This number is a little low, the play is the "over." This is a 10* OHIO VALLEY TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER Morehead State/Murray State. |
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01-01-21 | Jacksonville -3.5 v. Kennesaw State | Top | 62-57 | Win | 100 | 25 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: Jacksonville is 6-4 and Kennesaw State is 3-5. Jacksonville has played the stiffer competitoin to this point, most recently coming off a 70-46 loss to K-State. Corey Romich was a bright spot in defeat with ten points and five boards. The pick: Kennesaw State has lost three in a row, most recently an 81-71 setback to Mercer. These teams numbers are similar, but Jacksonville has faced the better competition and note that it's 7-2 ATS in its last nine road game after failing to score 50 points in a SU/ATS loss in its last outing. I'm laying the short points. This is a 10* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on Jacksonville. |
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12-31-20 | Boise State v. San Jose State +20.5 | Top | 106-54 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 39 m | Show |
The set-up: Is Boise State the better team? It's 6-1, so of course it is. San Jose State is just 1-4. Am I suggesting that you play the Spartans on the moneyline? Of course I'm not, I'm suggesting that you grab all these points, because from a situational standpoint, this one sets up brilliantly for the underdog in my opinion. The pick: Boise State enters off an 89-52 win over New Mexico, and note that it's just 2-7 ATS in its last nine road games after a 30 points or greater SU/ATS victory. San Jose State enters off an 85-52 loss at Utah State, and note that it's 8-4 ATS in its last 12 home games after a 30 points or greater SU/ATS road loss. This is the first game of a two-game set between the teams, with the other coming on January 3rd. Look for the Spartans to keep this one competitive until the end. Grab the points. This is a 10* UNDERDOG ULTIMATE BLOWOUT on San Jose State. |
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12-30-20 | Murray State +4 v. Belmont | Top | 55-68 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 26 m | Show |
The set-up: Murray State is 4-3 and 1-1 in the OVC, while Belmont is 8-1 and 2-0. These two teams dominate this conference. These teams have both won the conference championship over the last two years. The Racers have lost all three true road games they've played, and with six of their first seven OVC contests away from friendly confines, today's road game definitely takes on added importance for Murray State. The pick: Belmont comes in off a 72-63 win over Evansville, but note that it's just 2-7 ATS in its last nine after three or more SU victories in a row. These teams are evenly matched for sure, but I like the "hungrier" dog in this fight. A great situational play on Murray State. This is a 10* MID-MAJOR MAULING on Murray State. |
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12-28-20 | Drake v. Indiana State +3.5 | Top | 73-66 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
The set-up: This is the second game of a back-to-back between the teams. Last night Drake won its ninth straight (both SU and ATS) vs. the Sycamores by a score of 81-63. The Bulldogs are the better team on paper here, averaging 86.4 PPG and allowing 60. Indiana State only trailed by one at half-time, but a slow start to the second-half doomed the Sycamores after that. I actually had a play on Indiana State yesterday afternoon, and while that big play failed to deliver, I'm back on the Sycamores here in this bounce-back position. The pick: Previous to the loss to the Bulldogs, Indiana State had won two in a row. It averages 69.4 PPG and it allows 69.2. All good things do come to an end though and with a few days off before a January 3rd home and home set vs. the lowly Southern Illinois Salukis, I think the stage is now set for Drake to finally have a mental lapse here. The Sycamores are definitely the more motivated side here and I think they can keep this one competitive not only for just the first half this time, but for the entire game. Grab the points, expect a "nail-biter!" This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Indiana State. |
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12-27-20 | Drake v. Indiana State +4 | Top | 81-63 | Loss | -115 | 21 h 16 m | Show |
The set-up: Drake is 9-0 and 7-0 ATS. They say all good things have to come to an end, and I think that time is now for Drake. Overall it averages 86.4 PPG, while allowing 60.0. On paper, obviously Drake is the better team. Indiana State is 3-2, averaging 69.2 PPG and conceding 69.4. As I said, on paper, clearly Drake is the better team. The pick: Indiana State though won't be rolling over here. Note that it's 3-0 SU at home. Drake's early competition needs to be called into question here as well, as it enters off an 88-55 win over lowly North Dakota. Note that this is a back-to-back set as well, with each team playing here again tomorrow. I'll point out though that the Sycamores are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games as an underdog in the +2.5 to +5.5 points range. In a contest which I see coming right down to the wire, I'm grabbing the points in what I feel to be a prime situational spot wagering position for the home side. This is a 10* MISSOURI VALLEY GAME OF THE YEAR on Indiana State. |
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12-26-20 | Green Bay +17.5 v. Wright State | Top | 53-67 | Win | 100 | 23 h 58 m | Show |
The set-up: The Phoenix are winless on the year and they come in hungry after a 74-62 loss to Milwaukee in their last game. The Raiders on the other hand look poised for a letdown here in my opinion after beating Detroit 85-72 last time out. Losing isn't fun, and after starting the season 0-6, I don't think we have to question the visiting sides motivation levels this evening. Overall Wisconsin has averaged 66.2 PPG and conceded 83. The pick: THe Raiders have won four straight, as they average 79.6 PPG and allow 67.2. Clearly Wright State is the better team, but I think that it gets caught complacent and I believe it'll take the foot off the gas in the second half as it looks ahead to its game against this very same team tomorrow night. Finally note that the Phoenix are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 conference road games as an underdog in the +15.5 to +17.5 points range. A few too many points to be giving up to this hungry visiting side that's desperate to break into the win column. I'm grabbing the points. This is a 10* GAME OF THE YEAR on Wisconsin Green Bay. |
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12-25-20 | Iowa v. Minnesota +6 | Top | 95-102 | Win | 100 | 38 h 41 m | Show |
The set-up: The Hawkeyes are 7-1, including a 70-55 win over Purdue last time out. The GOlden Gophers are 7-1 overall (0-1 in conference play though) and most recently coming off a 90-82 win over Saint Louis. The Hawkeyes are led by Luka Garza, who averages 28.4 points and 9.1 boards per game. Both teams allow roughly the same amount of points (Iowa concedes 70.6, while Minnesota allows 73.5), so let's call that deparment a "wash."Â The pick: Marcus Carr leads the charge for the Golden Gophers, he had 32 points in the win over the Billikens. Garza's an amazing player, but note that Minnesota is 7-2 ATS in its last nine conference home games as an underdog in the +5.5 to +8.5 points range. I like Carr and company to battle tough here as they look to pull off the upset at home on X-Mas Day, while avoiding the 0-2 conference hole to open the season. Grab the points. This is a 10* COACH'S CORNER on Minnesota. |
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12-23-20 | Providence v. Butler +1 | Top | 64-70 | Win | 100 | 20 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: The pick: This is a 10* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on Butler. |
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12-22-20 | Nebraska +18.5 v. Wisconsin | Top | 53-67 | Win | 100 | 27 h 40 m | Show |
The set-up: I'm looking at this game, looking at each teams' records, looking at what they did in their most recent matchup against each other, looking at what they did in their last games and leading up to this moment. I'm looking at each team's schedule to see who they play next. Wisconsin is great obviously, it's 6-1 overall and 6-0 at home. Nebraska is 4-3 overall and just 2-4 against the spread on the road, but I think there are some great situational and motivational factors working in favor of the Huskers here, and while I'm not going to call for an outright upset, I do think that the stage is set for a much more competitive battle than what this spread would suggest. First off, Nebraska does play with revenge here after it lost 81-64 to Wisconsin in their last matchup back on February 15th, just before the Pandemic hit. This sets up as a look-ahead spot for Wisconsin as well, with a big nationally televised Christmas Day matchup at Michigan State. Nebraska lost to Creighton 98-74, but then it bounced back with a confidence-building 110-64 win over Doane in its most recent action. The pick: I'm primarily a situational or motivational handicapper, the actual players on the court or on the field usually don't even factor into my decision making process when handicapping, and for me, this particular contest definitely sets up well for Nebraska. I think Wisconsin comes in complacent, I think it gets caught looking ahead to its game vs. the Spartans, and I like Nebraska here in this revenge spot and getting the points. No outright, but closer than expected. This is a 10* UNDERDOG OF THE YEAR on Nebraska. |
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12-21-20 | Sacred Heart v. Wagner -5 | Top | 46-74 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
The set-up: The Sacred Heart Pioneers are 1-2 and the Wagner Seahawks are 0-3. Sacred Heart bounced-back from a loss to LIU, to then beat LIU 87-72 in the rematch on Thursday. Wagner though has faced much stiffer competition in the early going, losing 78-45 to Seton Hall, and then falling twice to Bryant, 74-62 and 81-75. Wagner was led by 29 points and eight boards from Elijah Ford in the most recent setback and it's gotten progressively better with each outing this year, despite the win/loss record. The pick: Note as well that Wagner is 7-2 ATS in its last nine home games after three or more SU losses in a row. Look for the Pioneers to once again struggle on the road here and look for the hungrier home side to pull away down the stretch. Lay the points and expect a blowout. This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Wagner. |
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12-20-20 | Providence +3.5 v. Seton Hall | Top | 80-77 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
The set-up: Providence has won two straight. The Friars come in fresh as their last two games have been postponed due to COVID issues. In their last game they beat TCU 79-70 as one-point underdogs. Seton Hall comes in off a 70-63 win over Marquette. Providence is well-balanced, led by David Duke it averages 74.5 PPG and it concedes 70.3. The pick: The Pirates have won four in a row. Seton Hall is led by Sandro Mamukelasvhili, as the Pirates average 76.5 PPG and allow 70.3. These teams are very evenly matched, but I like the well-rested Friars to pull off the minor upset here (that said, grab as many points as you can!) This is a 10* COACH'S CORNER on Providence. |
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12-19-20 | Drexel v. Fairleigh Dickinson +4 | Top | 85-68 | Loss | -114 | 8 h 42 m | Show |
The set-up: I like the 1-5 Fairleigh Dickinson Knights to pull off the minor upset in this one. Drexel comes in off a very satisfying 81-77 win over St. Joe's in its last outing and I think a predictable letdown is imminent here. Overall the Dragons average 68 PPG and they allow 63. The pick: The Knights come in with momentum, beting Central Connecticut State 79-71 for their first win of the year last time out. Fairleigh Dickinson is averaging 72 PPG and it's allowing 82.8. I'll point out though that Drexel is an extremely poor 5-15-1 ATS in its last 21 on the road, while Fairleigh Dickinson is 6-2 ATS in its last eight against a team with a losing road record. The Knights have faced some stiff competition this yar (Rutgers, Providence) and they play better at home than on the road. And I think they're the much hungrier dog in this fight. Grab the points. This is a 10* PLAY-BOOK on Fairleigh Dickinson. |
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12-18-20 | Drake v. South Dakota +6.5 | Top | 75-57 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
The set-up: The 6-0 Drake Bulldogs come in complacent and caught flat vs. this hungry 1-5 South Dakota team in my opinion. The Bulldogs early numbers are skewed due to the level of competition they've faced (averaging 84 and conceding 60.2.) The Coyotes are averaging 68.7 PPG and allowing 76. The pick: Drake smashed Air Force 81-53 at home in its last outing, but with two straight "cream puffs" at home before the X-Mas Break (Chicago State and North Dakota), I think the Bulldogs get caught looking ahead here. South Dakota lost to Drake 69-53 in late November, so the "revenge factor" comes into play here as well. I like the hungry underdog home side to at the very least, keep this one close enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. This is a 10* DESTRUCTION on South Dakota. |
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12-17-20 | St. Joe's +2 v. Drexel | Top | 77-81 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
The set-up: St. Joes lost to Auburn in OT to open the season, and then it lost by 22 to Kansas immediatley after. The Hawks have had to deal with some COVID issues over the last couple of weeks, so they come in rested/focused and prepared. Drexel is 3-2 so far, but it's competition is suspect for sure. Last year the Dragons were 14-19. The Hawks have plenty of veteran talent, led by Taylor Funk and Ryan Daly. The pick: Saint Joseph's is being undervalued in this spot. Yes, we have more to draw upon from Drexel, but as mentioned above, its competition to this point has been far from difficult. The trend in the early going for CBB teams dealing with COVID issues is that they've struggled a bit, but I'm bucking that trend here. The Hawks have a deep and talented group and this is the perfect opponent to get untracked against. While the outright win is obviously in play here, I'll still recommend to grab as many points as you can. This is a 10* SLAM-DUNK on St. Joseph's. |
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12-16-20 | Montana +7.5 v. Washington | Top | 66-58 | Win | 100 | 16 h 29 m | Show |
The set-up: The pick: This is a 10* COACH'S CORNER on Montana. |
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12-15-20 | Charlotte +12 v. Davidson | Top | 63-52 | Win | 100 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
The set-up: Outright victory? I'm not calling for that. But I do expect this one to be a lot closer than what this spread would suggest. Charlotte is 1-3 and Davidson is 3-2. The 49ers loss to Appalachian State last time out. Davidson comes in off victories over UNLV and Georgia Southern. The Wildcats have been competitive this year, but consistency from game-to-game has been a concern in the early going. Davidson is also just 2-5 ATS in its last seven after an ATS victory. The pick: Charlotte's win/loss record is not indicative of how it's played. It's gotten progressively better and more competitive with each outing, losing 66-57 to East Carolina, 76-65 to Georgia State, before then beating SC State 78-40, before then falling 61-58 to the Mountaineers last time out. Note that the 49ers are also 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 following a straight-up loss. No outright, but look for the hungrier 49ers to cmofortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. This is a 10* MID-MAJOR MAULING on Charlotte. |
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12-13-20 | Mercer v. Georgia Southern +5 | Top | 77-75 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
The set-up: Mercer is 5-0 and Georgia Southern is 3-1. After three straight wins, the Eagles lost to a tough Davidson team last time out. The Bears have looked sharp in the early going, but I think these teams are very evenly matched. The pick: Mercer has also played four smaller schools during its 5-0 start, so its numbers are skewed. I think the Bears take a step back in this difficult road venue and I look for the Eagles to bounce back after falling to Davidson and improve to 7-2 ATS in their last nine following a SU/ATS loss. Grab the points. This is a 10* MID-MAJOR MAULING on Georgia Southern. |
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12-12-20 | La Salle +3 v. Drexel | Top | 58-48 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
The set-up: La Salle is the "hungrier" dog in this fight at 1-3. So far in the early going the Explorers are averaging 63.8 points and allowing 67.3. Drexel has won three in a row and enters at 4-1, averaging 69.8 PPG and conceding 60.8. On paper, clearly Drexel is the better team. The pick: But I'll caution on reading too much into any of these numbers at this point. In a normal season, it's difficult to properly assess a team until after a full month is played. These teams are just starting their seasons and clearly the oddsmakers also believe they're very evenly matched with a spread like this. La Salle though is 7-2 ATS in its last nine after scoring 80 or more points in a victory in its last outing. Grab the points. This is a 10* DESTRUCTION on La Salle. |
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12-11-20 | Marist +4.5 v. Canisius | Top | 72-81 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
The set-up: Marist is 2-0, coming off two close victories and I expect another battle until the final horn tonight as well vs. the Golden Griffins. Last year the Red Foxes were just 7-23 and they lost to Canisius twice. This is Canisius's first game of the year and while it did beat Marist twice last season, it still only finished 12-20 overall. Marist returns key players from last year's team and a major improvement is expected. Keep your eyes on Michael Cubbage, who averaged 13.5 PPG last year. The pick: The Golden Griffins return key players as well, but I think that chemistry is going to be an issue. Marist has two games under its belt and I think that's crucial here. Marist is also 7-2 ATS in its last nine after two or more SU victories in a row. The outright is possible obviously, but grab as many points as you can. This is a 10* MID-MAJOR MAULING on Marist. |
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