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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-08-18 | Pelicans v. Warriors UNDER 229.5 | Top | 104-113 | Win | 100 | 15 h 2 m | Show |
The set-up: The Golden State Warriors have been to the last three NBA Finals (all against the Cavs), winning twice. The Warriors came up short in Game 3 in a 19-point loss, scoring a modest 100 points on 38.0% shooting (including 9-of-31 on threes). However, the Pelicans have seemed powerless to halt Golden State's assault in the other three games, as the Warriors have averaged 120.7 points in their three victories in the series. Golden State now looks to close out the Western Conference semifinals when it hosts the New Orleans Pelicans on Tuesday. New Orleans is insisting it won't roll over with its season on the line but ripping off three straight wins will be a daunting chore. "No, no. We've got to win one game at Oracle and that's the one that we play next," Pelicans head coach Alvin Gentry said in reference to Game 5 in Oakland. "That's as far as we need to look. Obviously it's a monumental task. It's been done before. As I said to the guys, we've just got to go play and you're not out until they win four games." New Orleans: The Pelicans suffered from poor shooting (36.4%) and ball-handling (19 turnovers) in the Game 4 loss. They have to do nbetter than that and naturally, will rely on Anthony Davis, who is averaging 26.3 points and 13.8 rebounds in the series plus has a double-double in all eight of the team's postseason games (29.6 & 12.8). Of concern is the fact that the Pelicans have burned their starters big minutes, with Anthony Davis (39.3) and Jrue Holiday (38.2) leading the series in minutes played. The New Orleans bench has not been up to the task, getting outscored 134-95 in the four games. "We do have guys that are playing heavy minutes," Gentry explained. "Really, all the starters are playing real heavy minutes. I thought it would be a good idea today to let their minds rest, their bodies rest." He had that in mind when he called off a Monday workout. The pick: Hard to imagine New Orleans coming back to win this series but that's not the question here. In fact, the Pelicans have played their best in the series when rested. The teams got two days off in Oakland after Golden State's 123-101 victory in Game 1 and the Pelicans rebounded with a strong effort in Game 2, falling just 121-116 on the road. Then after two more days off, New Orleans was re-energized at home and responded with its 119-100 triumph. However, the teams were then rushed back from a Friday night to a Sunday afternoon for Game 4, during which the Pelicans shot just 4 of 26 on three-pointers after having scorched the nets for 14 of 31 in the Game 3 win. The Pelicans don't have two days off here but they shouldn't be as tired with this schedule (Sunday afternoon game to a Tuesday evening one). Also, Golden St is just 19-26-1 ATS this year at home (including playoffs), as well as 12-17-1 ATS when laying 10-plus points,. Make the Under an 8* play. |
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05-07-18 | Mets v. Reds UNDER 9.5 | Top | 7-6 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 16 m | Show |
The set-up: The NY Mets opened the season 11-1 but the losses, both on and off the field, are piling up. The Mets finished a wretched homestand with Sunday's 3-2 loss to the Rockies. New York opened last week by getting swept by the Braves and then got swept by the Rockies. After an 0-6 homestand, the Mets head out on the road at 17-15 to begin a six-game road trip beginning with the first of three against the Cincinnati Reds on Monday night. The Mets were outscored 34-11 during a disastrous 0-6 homestand and have now dropped 14 of their last 20 after a blistering 11-1 start to the season. More bad news is that Yoenis Cespedes left Sunday's 3-2 loss to Colorado due to soreness in his right quadriceps and told reporters he was unsure of his availability for the series opener in Cincinnati. Also, Jacob deGrom, who was expected to start Monday for New York, was placed on the 10-day disabled list to allowed more time to rest his hyperextended elbow. The good news for the Mets is that their opponent the next three games is the sad-sack Cincinnati Reds, who are tied with Baltimore for the worst record in the majors at 8-26. The pitching matchup: P.J. Conlon (NR) will make his major league debut for the Mets and go up against Homer Bailey (0-4, 4.81 ERA). Conlon was recalled from Triple-A Las Vegas to make his major league debut and he'll also go into the history books, becoming the first Irish-born player to reach the bigs since 1945. With deGrom expected to start next Sunday at Philadelphia, it figures to be a one-game audition for Conlon, who is 1-2 with a 6.75 ERA in five starts this season at Las Vegas. He has allowed only one HR but opponents are batting .310 against him. Bailey owns two career no-hitters but is 66-67 in his career with a 4.43 ERA. He endured some hard-luck losses at the outset of the season after registering three quality starts in his first four outings but he has regressed over the past two weeks. After a pair of no-decisions, he was tagged for five runs on six hits over five innings in a loss to Milwaukee on Tuesday. Bailey, who has surrendered six HRs over his last three starts. Bailey is 0-4 and the Reds 0-7 in all of his 2018 starts minus-$700 vs. moneyline mark. Bailey is 1-4 with a 6.49 ERA lifetime versus New York. The pick: At first blush, with these two starters, one could say "over" fairly easily. However, the Mets come off an 0-6 homestand being held to two runs or fewer five times, including three shutouts. As for the Reds, they average 3.91 RPG (24th) plus rank 25th in OPS (.684) and 28th in HRs (27). Make the Under a 10* play. |
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05-04-18 | Warriors v. Pelicans UNDER 232 | Top | 100-119 | Win | 100 | 27 h 1 m | Show |
The set-up: Arguably, no team was more impressive in the first round than the New Orleans Pelicans. They swept the 3rd-seeded Trail Blazers 4-0, going 4-0 ATS as well. Anthony Davis averaged 33 points on 57.6 percent shooting and 11.8 rebounds in the four-game sweep, while guards Jrue Holiday and Rajon Rondo plus power forward Nikola Mirotic were keys to an offense that clicked on all cylinders. After a 97-95 win in Game 1, the Pelicans averaged 120.3 PPG in taking the final three games against Portland. Holiday averaged 27.8-4.0-6.5, Rondo 11.2-7.5-13.2 and Mirotic 18.2 & 9.5 for the series. Golden State ran out to a 3-0 lead against the Leonard-less Spurs (also 3-o ATS) in the first round, before losing Game 4 and then taking Game 5 to close out the series in a non-cover. The Warriors opened this series with 123-101 win and then with Steph Curry back for Game 2, won a more competitive contest, 121-116. Curry had injured his left knee on March 23 but returned to action on Tuesday when he scored 28 points off the bench. However, he will be back in the starting lineup when the Warriors visit the New Orleans Pelicans in Friday's Game 3. The Pelicans are well aware they have their backs against the wall but are encouraged by the fact their Game 2 showing was much better than the Game 1 loss. "We played well the whole game but I think we got our rhythm back," guard Jrue Holiday told reporters. "We got our groove back. Maybe just a couple things. Golden State: Head coach Steve Kerr told reporters Curry will start in Game 3 and also indicated he will play more than the 27 minutes he received in Game 2. Curry didn't appear to be rusty as he drained five three-pointers and collected seven rebounds in a strong effort that helped the Warriors take a 2-0 series lead Power forward Draymond Green fell one rebound short of his second straight triple-double and is averaging 18 points, 12 rebounds and 11.5 assists in the series, as well as 13.3-11.4-9.0 in the postseason. As expected with Curry out, K.D (28.0-8.9-5.0) and Thompson (21.4 PPG on 43.1% shooting from the three-point line) have risen to the occasion. New Orleans: Anthony Davis is averaging 23 points (10 less than against Portland) and 12.5 rebounds through the first two games but New Orleans may need an explosion from him in Game 3, similar to the 47-point effort he posted in the final game of the first-round series against the Trail Blazers. Holiday was solid with 24 points, eight rebounds and eight assists in Game 2 after struggling to 11 points on 4-of-14 shooting in the opener. Point guard Rajon Rondo continued his strong postseason showing with 22 points and 12 assists in Game 2 and he is averaging 12.7 points and 12.7 assists in six playoff games. The pick: These teams met in the 2015 postseason (AD's only other playoff experience), with the Warriors sweeping the Pelicans but going just 1-3 ATS. Now it's six consecutive playoff wins for the Warriors over the Pelicans but still, only a 2-4 ATS mark. I expect the Pelicans to come up big in this "must-win" situation but I'm not sold on the idea that New Orleans is capable of winning. The total remains VERY high and I think the Pelicans realize that trying to beat Golden State at its own game is fruitless. I'm making the Under a 10* play. |
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05-03-18 | Predators v. Jets UNDER 6 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 8 m | Show |
The set-up: The Nashville Predators were just the 8th-seed out of the West last season but made a run all the way to the Stanley Cup Finals before falling in six games to the Penguins, who won a second straight title. The Preds built on last season's playoff run and won the Presidents' Trophy this season with 117 points. However, Nashville promptly lost its home ice edge in Game 1 against Winnipeg, with the Jets skating to a 4-1 victory. The Preds needed two OTs to win Game 2 and went to Winnipeg tied one-all. With a three-goal first period lead, there can be little doubt that many members of the Predators were convinced it was just a matter of 40 minutes until they reclaimed home-ice advantage in their second-round playoff series against the Jets. However, the unfathomable happened, as the Winnipeg Jets did not panic when they fell behind by three goals. The Jets scored three times in a 2:51 span of the second period en route to a 7-4 victory in Game 3, riding two goals each from Dustin Byfuglien and Blake Wheeler to take a 2-1 lead in the best-of-seven series. The resulting offensive breakthrough has put them in position to take control of the Western Conference semifinals entering Thursday’s Game 4 at home. Nashville: "We stopped playing, clear as day,” Nashville defenseman Ryan Ellis told the media afterward. “You could see that, and you can’t win hockey games when you stop playing midway through the second.” Goals from Mike Fisher, P.K. Subban and Austin Watson staked the Predators to the early advantage but Nashville only put 18 shots on goal in the final two periods and were outshot 45-30 on the night. Forward Filip Forsberg tied the game in the third period at 4-4 with his fifth goal of the playoffs but the Jets scored the final three goals of the game. The Predators were penalized five times in the final 20 minutes and goaltender Pekka Rinne, who drew a slashing penalty out of frustration with 4:29 left, made 38 saves but gave up four goals on 16 shots in the second period. Winnipeg: "Nobody panicked,” Jets defenseman Jacob Trouba told reporters in referencing a 3-0 Nashville lead after the first period, adding that Winnipeg coach Paul Maurice simply told his players during intermission to, “just go play hockey.” Center Mark Scheifele continues to shine, picking up two assists to give him 11 points (seven goals) in his past five games. Byfuglien finished with a three-point night and has five in the series, while Wheeler and center Paul Stastny (one goal, two assists) also collected three points as Winnipeg pounded Nashville with 35 shots in the final 40 minutes. Goaltender Connor Hellebuyck gave up three goals in the opening period Tuesday and has surrendered nine in the past two games. However, he settled down in stopping 18 of Nashville’s final 19 shots. The pick: Winnipeg is one goal in double-overtime (Game 2) away from holding a 3-0 series lead, while the more experienced Predators have not only lost home ice advantage for now, but also lost their composure by taking three minors in the final nine minutes Tuesday. We've seen back-to-back games with finals of 5-4 and 7-4 but in this critical game, expect none of that. Each team features a Vezina Trophy finalist, Pekka Rinne of the Predators and Winnipeg’s Connor Hellebuyck. Make the Under a 10* play. |
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05-03-18 | Braves v. Mets OVER 8.5 | Top | 11-0 | Win | 100 | 6 h 39 m | Show |
The set-up: The NY Mets opened 2018 at 11-1 and have spent most of the season's opening five weeks atop the National League East. However, after dropping the first two of a three-game home series against the Atlanta Braves, they are now 'looking up' at the surprising 18-11 Braves in the division. Surprising actually understates what the Braves have done early on in 2018, as the team's current record puts them on pace to win 100 games this year, after averaging 71.5 wins per season the last four! The Braves have won the first two games, including Wednesday night, when Jason deGrom suffered a hyperextended right elbow while batting in the bottom of the third inning and left after tossing four scoreless innings in Atlanta's 7-0 victory. The Mets will likely learn Thursday just how seriously ace right-handed pitcher Jacob deGrom is hurt (more on that later). Getting back to the Braves, last night's win was the team's fourth in a row, moving them into first place in the NL East, a half-game ahead of the Mets. The pitching matchup: Mets lefty Jason Vargas (0-1, 22.09 ERA) is scheduled to face the Braves' Julio Teheran (1-1, 4.50 ERA) in the finale of this three-game series this afternoon at Citi Field. Vargas won a career-best 18 games and was an All-Star for the first time last season with Kansas City. He cashed in by signing a two-year, $16 million deal over the winter and figures to eventually be the No. 3 starter behind Noah Syndergaard and Jacob deGrom. The veteran underwent surgery on his hand back on March 20 (he suffered a broken right hand on March 16) and returned to the mound in his season debut Saturday, when he gave up nine runs over 3 2/3 innings as the Mets fell to the San Diego Padres 12-2. Vargas is 0-0 with a 3.00 ERA in two career appearances (one start) against the Braves but has not faced them since 2006. Teheran didn't factor into the decision last Friday, when he gave up three runs over three innings as the Braves lost to the Philadelphia Phillies 7-3. He left because of tightness in his right upper trapezius but felt fine while throwing this week. Teheran is 8-5 with a 2.44 ERA in 21 games (20 starts) against the Mets in his career. The pick: The Mets are 9-5 in games started by deGrom and Noah Syndergaard, who have combined to post a 2.46 ERA. However, New York is a more modest 8-6 when anyone else starts with the quartet of Vargas, Matt Harvey, Steven Matz and Zack Wheeler combining to post a 5.93 ERA. Vargas will be facing an Atlanta lineup which leads all of MLB with a .273 team BA, while ranking third in both runs scored (5.55 per) and OPS (.787). The news has been pretty good lately for the Braves, who are in first place for the first time since April 14, 2015. Atlanta has gotten off to a hot start despite facing eight ace-caliber starters -- deGrom, Syndergaard, Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Yu Darvish. Jose Quintana and Aaron Nola -- 12 times in the first 29 games. Make the Over an 8* play. |
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04-28-18 | Pelicans v. Warriors UNDER 224.5 | Top | 101-123 | Win | 100 | 15 h 17 m | Show |
The set-up: Anthony Davis entered the 2018 postseason without a playoff win on his resume but his New Orleans Pelicans (West's No. 6 seed) were dominant in sweeping the third-seeded Portland Trail Blazers in the first round of the playoffs. Davis averaged 33 points on 57.6 percent shooting and 11.8 rebounds in the four-game sweep of Portland. He and his teammates now know they have a much bigger challenge up next, facing the defending NBA champion Golden State Warriors (three straight Finals appearances with two titles). Golden State ran out to a 3-0 lead against the Leonard-less Spurs (also 3- ATS), before losing Game 4 and then taking Game 5 to close out the series in a non-cover. These teams met in the 2015 postseason (AD's only other playoff experience), with the Warriors sweeping the Pelicans but going just 1-3 ATS. New Orleans: Davis is the unquestioned leader and star of this team, but guards Jrue Holiday and Rajon Rondo plus power forward Nikola Mirotic are keys to an offense that is clicking on all cylinders. After a 97-95 win in Game 1, the Pelicans averaged 120.3 PPG in taking the final three games against Portland. Holiday averaged 27.8-4.0-6.5, Rondo 11.2-7.5-13.2 and Mirotic 18.2 & 9.5. "The unselfishness," Rondo told the team's website, when asked which area the Pelicans have shown the most growth this season. "I think we’re rooting for the next man beside us. Early in the season, I couldn’t really say that for this team. But now, it seems like guys are happy for one another, genuinely. Regardless of whether guys are playing bad or playing great, when we come in that locker room, if we got a ‘W’, everyone has the same mindset, the same joy for each other." Golden State: The Warriors hope to have Stephen Curry back in the lineup Saturday night. The former two-time MVP practiced with his teammates Thursday and Friday but noted afterward a final decision on whether he plays for the first time since March 23 rests in the hands of Golden State's medical staff after the Game 1 warmups (Curry suffered a sprained MCL in his left knee in a collision with teammate JaVale McGee in a game against Atlanta). Curry sat out the last 15 games of the regular season and all five vs. the Spurs. However, Kevin Durant averaged 28.2 points in the first round to help cover some of Curry's lost scoring while shooting guard Klay Thompson averaged 22.6 points and shot 51.6 percent from three-point range. Draymond Green was his usual disruptive self, averaging 11.4-11.2-8.0 (he had 17 points and 19 rebounds in Game 5). The pick: The Warriors took three of four meetings with the Pelicans in the regular season but I'm staying away from either team here. No one can be sure what Curry's status will be but expect Golden State to brings its "D," which is so often looked because the team is the NBA's highest scoring and best-shooting club. VERY high total in this contest makes the Under a 10* play. |
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04-28-18 | Bucks v. Celtics UNDER 195.5 | Top | 96-112 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
The set-up: Two of the eight first round series are headed for a Game 7 with Milwaukee and Boston being up first (Sunday, it's Indiana and Cleveland). The home team is a perfect 6-0 so far (5-1 ATS) but Bucks superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo said he is out to change that pattern in Saturday's Game 7. The "Greek Freak" scored 31 points and added14 rebounds as the Bucks forced a Game 7 with Thursday's 97-86 victory. The second-seeded Celtics unexpectedly find themselves in need of a win to keep their season alive. Celtics head coach Brad Stevens told reporters. "Game 7 in TD Garden is what you play for. It should be what you're excited most about. What you worked for all summer, what you worked for all year. It's a blast." Milwaukee: Antetokounmpo has scored 30 or more points on three occasions in the series and is averaging 26.3-9.7-6.5 through six games. Middleton (23.5- & 5.7) has been consistently good but the duo needs someone from the trio of guard Eric Bledsoe (12.0 PPG on 38.9% shooting), forward Jabari Parker (10.2) and guard Malcolm Brogdon (9.8) to step up on Saturday. "We're a team that has shown a lot of resiliency all year," interim coach Joe Prunty said. "We've had a game this year, twice, where we've been down 20 and found a way to come back and win both times. We continue to battle. We fight." Boston: Failing to close out the series in Milwaukee didn't seem to faze most of the Boston players, as they return to a venue in which they have won three times during the playoff matchup, by an average of 8.3 points. Second-year shooting guard Brown is one of five Celtics averaging in double digits in the series, leading the way at 20.5 PPG (RPG). Center/PF Al Horford (16.8 & 8.8), guard Terry Rozier (16.2-4.0-6.3), small forward Jayson Tatum (14.7 & 5.2) and power forward Marcus Morris (13.8 & 5.0) being the others. Morris (thigh) was injured in Game 6 and insists he is fine for the series finale. The pick: With Milwaukee's awful recent playoff history (see above), I can't take the Bucks. However, I'm not convinced Boston (minus Kyrie) is really better than the Bucks. With the series tied two-all, Boston won Game 5, 92-87 and facing elimination, Milwaukee won Game 6, 97-86. That's an average of 181.0 PPG. In this do-or-die Game 7, why NOT expect another low-scoring contest? Make the Under an 8* play. |
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04-27-18 | Cavs v. Pacers OVER 204 | Top | 87-121 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: LeBron James capped off a 44-point, 10-rebound, eight-assist performance by nailing a three-pointer at the buzzer to give the Cavaliers a 98-95 victory in Game 5 and their first lead of the series. No one can nor will dispute LBJ's gretaness but the Pacers have a real beef with what happened just prior to "The Kng's" buzzer-beater. LBJ's game-winner came right after he swatted away a dunk attempt by Indiana's Victor Oladipo at the other end, a play the NBA declared on Thursday should have been called a goal-tend. "It is what it is," Pacers center Myles Turner told reporters. "It was clearly a goal-tend. They didn't review it. There's not anything you can say about it. It's frustrating. It doesn't change the fact that LeBron still hit that game-winning shot, but it's still a pivotal moment in the game that I feel does need a review." A bigger issue for Indiana is Victor Oladipo, who started out hot in the series, but is struggling over the last three games. He was just 2-of-15 from the floor while scoring 12 points on Wednesday, making him just 12-of-50 (24.0%) over the last three contests after going 20-of-37 (54.1%) in the first two games. Cleveland: Kevin Love added a double-double with 11 points and 10 rebounds on Wednesday and felt confident that his teammate was the right person to take the final shot. "We wanted to free up 'Bron as best we could," Love told reporters. Kyle Korver was the only other player to score in double figures with 19 points on 6-of-11 shooting for Cleveland. For teh series, LBJ is averaging 34.8 PPG. 23 points more per game than the team's second-leading scorer Kevin Love (11.8 PPG). JR Smith went scoreless on 0-of-8 shooting in 33 minutes on Wednesday, George Hill (back) has now missed the last two games and is questionable for Friday Indiana: The Pacers were ahead 56-49 at halftime but the game turned in the third quarter when the Cavaliers opened with a 21-4 spurt to take a 10-point lead. Point guard Darren Collison said the Pacers can't dwell on the missed call or loss. "We've got to forget about it," Collison told Fox Sports Indiana. "You can't worry about what happened. That's not going to help us. We know (James) made a tough shot. We'll be prepared mentally coming in." Obviously, Oladipo needs to regain his shooting touch but Indiana has to like the fact that after scoring a total of just 17 points in the first three games of the series, backup center Domantas Sabonis has scored 41 off the bench in the last two games (on 17-of-24 shooting). The pick: An LBJ-led team has never lost an opening round series (12-0) and the team may not lose this one. However, one can't ignore that the Cavs, although up 3-2 in the series, are 1-4 ATS. Also of note is the fact that series has gone "under the total" in all previous five games. I lean to the Pacers but will make the Over an 8* play. |
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04-26-18 | Sharks v. Golden Knights OVER 5 | Top | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 14 h 26 m | Show |
The set-up: The NHL's first round features 16 teams and eight series. Just two of those eight series ended it 4-0 sweeps, as the expansion Vegas Golden Knights did so against the LA Kings and the San Jose Sharks brushed aside the Anaheim Ducks. The second round of the Stanley Cup playoffs opens tonight and one of the two Western Conference semifinal series will feature those two 'sweepers.' The Vegas Golden Knights host the San Jose Sharks in the opener of their Western Conference semifinal, after Vegas allowed three goals to Los Angeles in its half of the Pacific Division derby, while San Jose manhandled Anaheim, outscoring the Ducks 16-4. The Golden Knights rely on a raucous crowd at T-Mobile Arena and were dominant against Pacific opponents, finishing 20-6-3 in division play and winning three of four matchups (3-0-1) against the Sharks, a series that included three one-goal decisions. The Sharks come in full of confidence, as they were the most impressive team in the first round of the playoffs, opening with two wins in Anaheim before rolling up eight goals in Game 3. San Jose: The Sharks are now better able to counter Vegas' four lines thanks to the trade-deadline acquisition of forward Evander Kane, who had nine goals in 17 regular-season games with the Sharks before scoring three times in the first round on the top line with captain Joe Pavelski and Joonas Donskoi. Logan Couture scored a team-high 34 goals during the regular season and has 74 points in 90 career postseason games, including a playoff-high 30 in leading San Jose to the Stanley Cup Final in 2016. Goaltender Martin Jones was outstanding against Anaheim but posted a 1-2-0 mark with a 3.32 goals-against average and .899 save percentage versus Vegas. Vegas: Jones may have been good vs. Anaheim but the Golden Knight's Marc-Andre Fleury was nearly impregnable against the Kings. He came into the 2018 postseason with plenty of playoff experience as part of three Stanley Cup-winning teams with the Pittsburgh Penguins and was near-perfect against the Kings. Vegas won all four games by just one goal, with Fleury owning an 0.65 GAA and .977 SP. Vegas managed only seven goals against Los Angeles but featured four players with at least 25 goals during the regular season, led by William Karlsson (43), who has scored four times to go with an assist in the four matchups against San Jose. The pick: Vegas is 31-10-2 at home but will be facing a veteran San Jose squad that is 22-14-7 on the road. The "elephant in the room" is which team can shake off the rust quicker? Vegas will be playing its first game in nine days, while San Jose will be taking the ice for the first time in eight days. I just don't see a 1-0 or 2-1 contest. "5" seems like an easily attainable plateau. Make the Over a 10* play. |
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04-25-18 | Wizards v. Raptors OVER 215.5 | Top | 98-108 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
The set-up: The Raptors beat the Wizards in Game 1 by eight points, as the dynamic backcourt duo of DeRozan and Lowry totaled a modest 28 points. PF Ibaka (23 & 12) was the star, while Wight (18) and Miles (12) played big roles off the bench. However, in Game 2's 130-119 win, DeRzoan (team's leading scorer at 23.0 PPG) exploded for 37 points on 14-of-23 shooting.Center Valanciunas accounted for a double-double (19 & 14), while Miles (18) and Wright (11) again played well off the bench. The Wizards fell behind early in Game 1 and were down 44-27 at the end of the first quarter in Game 2. " The Wizards decided to get physical with the Raptors in Game 3 and it worked, as they won 122-103 . Washington then took Game 4, 106-98.All of a sudden, this series is tied at two-all as Toronto hosts Game 5 on Wednesday. Washington: The Wizards allowed an average of 122 points in the first two games of the series but cut that number down to 100.5 PPG in the next two. Shooting guard Bradley Beal fouled out of Game 4 with just under five minutes left but PG John Wall took over down the stretch and finished with 27 points and 14 assists in the win. When Wall got hurt late in the regular season, there was some talk that Washington was fine without him. No one is saying that now, as Wall is averaging 26.3 points, 13 assists and three steals in the series. Toronto: DeMar DeRozan scored a game-high 35 points in Game 4 but was just 10-of-29 from the floor. "I took some shots that I wish I could have had back," DeRozan told reporters. "But it's just my mindset going out there and being aggressive, wanting to win, wanting to feel like I was doing whatever it took offensively to push us to a win. But with that came some bad shots that I will definitely understand next time." DeRozan and Kyle Lowry (7-of-15) combined for more than half of Toronto's shot attempts in the loss. Toronto's reserves were key in Games 1 & 2 at home but were not ready for primetime in the two games at Washington. The pick: Toronto won a franchise-record 59 games during the regular season and earned the top seed in the East for the first time while playing a brand of basketball that encouraged ball movement and three-point shooting. However, some of those traits were hard to find down the stretch in Game 4's 106-98 setback. The Raptors led by 14 points during the third quarter on Sunday but the score was tied at 92 when Beal fouled out (then Wall took over for the Wizards!). The Raptors used their full bench successfully during the season but they started to again rely heavily on their All-Star guards DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry in the two games in Washington. Toronto needs better balance but a return home could be just what teh doctor ordered. Remember, the Raptors averaged 122.0 PPG in Games 1 & 2 at AirCanada Centre. Washington's Beal averaged 29.5 points in the two home games but just 14 points at Toronto in the first two contests. PF Mike Scott, who averaged 15.3 points in the first three contests, was held to just four points on Sunday (is he returning to earth?). Make the Over a 10* play. |
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04-24-18 | Spurs v. Warriors UNDER 205 | Top | 91-99 | Win | 100 | 22 h 22 m | Show |
The set-up: LaMarcus Aldridge has been the Spurs' lone consistent scorer this series(actually, this season) and he again led the way for San Antonio with 22 points and 10 rebounds in Sunday's Game 4. However, the team's spark was provided by Manu Ginobili, the 40-year-old future Hall of Famer. Ginobili had scored a total of just 19 points in the first three games of the series, as the Spurs fell behind 0-3. However, he scored 16 points in 25 minutes on Sunday, as the Spurs proved they had too much pride to get swept on their homecourt by the Golden State Warriors for the second straight season, earning a 103-90 win in Game 4. San Antonio went 15-of-28 from three-point range in Game 4, while the Warriors shot 37.8% from the floor, including just 7-of-28 on threes. San Antonio: The Spurs will be operating without head coach Gregg Popovich for the third straight game following the death of his wife, as interim head coach Ettore Messina takes over. Aldridge's 22 & 10 was his third straight double-double in the series. San Antonio never trailed on Sunday, this after the Spurs having fallen behind by at least 19 points in each of the first three games of the series. Ginobili and PG Tony Parker set an NBA record on Sunday with their 132nd playoff win as teammates. This marks Game No. 133 but will be it be their last? Golden State: Klay Thompson shot 63.3 percent from the floor and 65 percent from three-point range while averaging 25.7 points in the first three games of the series but slumped to 12 points on 4-of-16 shooting in Game 4. The Warriors committed seven of their 18 turnovers in the first quarter, setting the tone for a sloppy performance. Kevin Durant is averaging 29 points and 9.3 rebounds in the series, while Draymond Green is shooting just 33.3 percent from the floor in the series. The Warriors are not really "the Warriors," without Curry. The Warriors know they got a break drawing the Leonard-less Spurs in the opening round and I can't imagine Golden State will miss a chance to close out the series right here. However, during the regular season, Golden State lost 12 times, after losing just NINE times in making the NBA Finals in each of the last three years (won two NBA titles). What's more, Golden State was a money-burning 16-24-1 ATS at home during the regular season. Sure, the Warriors won and covered Games 1 and 2 at home in this series but I'd prefer to concentrate on the over/under in this contest, as the the Warriors have held the Spurs to just 100.3 PPG in the series, so far. OK, San Antonio went 15 of 28 (53.6 percent) in Game 4 from three-point range but that's after connecting on a combined 20 of 83 (24.1 percent) on three-pointers in the first three games of the series. The Under is a 10* play. |
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04-22-18 | Raptors v. Wizards UNDER 219 | Top | 98-106 | Win | 100 | 20 h 33 m | Show |
The set-up: The Raptors beat the Wizards in Game 1 by eight points, as the dynamic backcourt duo of DeRozan and Lowry totaled a modest 28 points. PF Ibaka (23 & 12) was the star, while Wight (18) and Miles (12) played big roles off the bench. However, in Game 2's 130-119 win, DeRzoan (team's leading scorer at 23.0 PPG) exploded for 37 points on 14-of-23 shooting.Center Valanciunas accounted for a double-double (19 & 14), while Miles (18) and Wright (11) again played well off the bench. The Wizards fell behind early in Game 1 and were down 44-27 at the end of the first quarter in Game 2. "We need a better start," Washington head coach Scott Brooks told reporters. "All five guys need to lock in defensively. They've gotten free for a lot of jump shots, and give them credit, they made them. ... But we've got to be a little better. We've got to have a better start. It's not the only thing, but we've got to start there and then go from there." The Wizards decided to get physical with the Raptors in Game 3 and it worked, giving Washington a chance to even its best-of-seven first-round series when the teams meet for Game 4 in the nation's capital on Sunday. In a game that featured five technical fouls and plenty of chippy action, the eighth-seeded Wizards routed the top-seeded Raptors 122-103 on Friday to pull within 2-1 in the series. Toronto: "They came out and punched us," Toronto head coach Dwane Casey - whose team averaged 122 points in two victories at home to start the series - told reporters. "And we allowed them to." The top-seeded Raptors received 23 points from DeMar DeRozan had 23 points and Lowry 19 (plus eight assists) but the team's backcourt duo also combined for eight of Toronto's 18 turnovers. A bigger issue was Toronto's vaunted bench struggled to shoot just 10-for-29 (34.5%) with none of the seven reserves scoring in double figures. That unit is usually led by backup guard Fred VanVleet,but he missed his second game in the series due to a bruised shoulder and is considered day-to-day. Washington: John Wall and Bradley Beal scored 28 points apiece for Washington, which shot 55.3 percent overall and scored at least 30 points in each of the first three quarters. Beal had averaged 28.8 points in four meetings with the Raptors during the regular season but had produced a total of just 28 through the first two games of the series before breaking out Friday. Wall added 14 assists in the rout and he is averaging 26.7 points, 12.7 assists and 2.7 steals in the series. Center Marcin Gortat had 16 points on 8-of-10 shooting in Game 3, after being held scoreless in 12 minutes of Game 2. Reserve PF Mike Scott is 18-of-24 from the floor in the series (including 6-of-7 from three-point range), while averaging 15.3 PPG (he averaged 8.8 PPG in the regular season). The pick: The Raptors seemed comfortable playing the role of the "Big Dog" in Games 1 and 2 but that all changed Friday night, as the Wizards dominated Game 3. If that contest was a "must win" for Washington, then so is this one, as a loss means returning to Toronto (where the Raptors are 36-7 SU this season) to face an elimination game. The winner of each of the last two games has scored 130 and 122 points, with the two finals averaging 237.0 PPG. No way this game will be played with that kind of pace. Make the Under a 10* play. |
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04-21-18 | 76ers v. Heat UNDER 215 | Top | 106-102 | Win | 100 | 7 h 4 m | Show |
The set-up: The Houston Rockets had the best regular season of any NBA team but the Philadelphia 76ers have stolen most of the headlines "down the stretch" with the team's 16-0 run to close the regular season. The final eight games in the team's winning streak came with Philly's All Star center Joel Embiid (22.9 & 11.0 in the regular season) sidelined with an orbital fracture.The 76ers opened their first round series (with Embiid still sidelined) by routing the Heat by 27 points but their 17-game winning streak came to a crashing halt in Game 2, as the Heat won 1113-103. Embiid had posted an Instagram message before Game 2 that strongly indicated his desire to return, indicating that he was being "babied" by the team staff, and he participated in portions of practice the next two days. Still, Embiid's status for Game 3 remained 'cloudy.' "It's still moving forward," head coach Brett Brown told reporters Tuesday. "What I can say is there is a very unified effort with his representation and the people around him. With the people that did the operation, the doctors, with our medical staff, with the team, with me, the coaching staff. We're all doing this. There's a unified sort of spirit and line of communication." However, Ebiid would start Game 3 and had 23 points and seven rebounds as the 76ers routed Miami 128-108. As the teams get set to meet again at AmericanAirlines Arena on Saturday, the Heat will need to corral Embiid but Miami also needs to get its center, Hassan Whiteside, more involved. Philadelphia: Naturally, Embiid was Game 3's biggest storyline, as he adjusted to wearing a mask to protect the healing eye bone and had an excellent game under the circumstances (he had missed 10 consecutive contests). However, let's not ignore rookie PG Ben Simmons and second-year PF Dario Saric. Saric led Philly with 30 points in Game 3 and is averaging 21.3 & 7.0 in the series. As for Simmons, he's averaging 20.0-10.0-9.7 in his first three career playoff games (does he think he's Magic?). Philly's depth is impressive, led by SG Belinelli (20.7) and PF Ilysova (13.0 & 9.3). Miami: Whiteside played just 13 minutes on Thursday, in part because of foul trouble. He contributed just five points, two rebounds and one block. "I want to get more minutes," said Whiteside, who led the NBA with 3.7 blocks in 2015-2016 and with 14.1 rebounds last season. "Even with the fouls, I could've been out there. I would not have fouled out." Whiteside is averaged 14.0 points, 11.4 rebounds and 1.7 blocks during the regular season but his minutes per game were down seven minutes from last season and even more in the playoffs. Whiteside said Heat coach Erik Spoelstra "wants me to just be in a corner and set picks." Meanwhile, Spoelstra said "it's part of my job to figure out how he can get to his strengths and make an impact on defense and rebounding." Will (can?) Miami fix this? Miami was led by point guard Goran Dragic's 23 points and eight assists (his second straight 20-point game) and from reserve forward Justise Winslow scored a season-high 19 points and grabbed 10 rebounds. However, Miami's top three shooting guards -- Tyler Johnson, Dwyane Wade and Wayne Ellington -- combined for just 21 points. The pick: With Philly up 2-1 in the series, the outcome of this Game 4 will either put Philly in a commanding position (up 3-1) or a Miami win will portend a possible seven-game 'war.' The teams four regular season meetings averaged just 204 points and this pivotal Game 4 brings out the defensive side of both clubs. With the total currently right around 215, the play is an 8* on the Under. |
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