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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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06-25-18 | Reds v. Braves -145 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 31 h 59 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Atlanta Braves. We think this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what Las Vegas wants us to believe. The Reds go with the erratic Tyler Mahle (6-6, 3.89 ERA) who comes in off a couple of decent outings, but who is still a pedestrian 3-3 with a 4.17 ERA in all “night” contests this year. The home side goes with Mike Foltynewicz (5-4, 2.16) who returns from a short stint on the DL to improve upon his 2-1, 2.23 ERA at home and 2.19 ERA in all “night” contests. Additionally note that the Reds are just 15-22 (-1.6 units) on the road this year, while ATL is 21-14 (+5.2 units) at home this season. We think this one favors the hard-hitting home side. Play on the BRAVES. AAA Sports |
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06-25-18 | Indians -127 v. Cardinals | 0-4 | Loss | -127 | 30 h 18 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Cleveland Indians. We think Mike Clevinger and the hard-hitting visiting side could/should easily be much larger favorites in this particular matchup. Clevinger (6-2, 3.00 ERA) went seven shutout innings to earn a victory on Tuesday against the White Sox, striking out ten and walking two. Clevinger comes in off back-to-back sharp outings and he’ll now look to improve upon his already impressive 3-1, 2.27 ERA on the road. The home side goes with John Gant (1-2, 4.39) who makes this start in place of the injured Michael Wacha. Gant has been serviceable in his limited time in the bigs this year, but still owns the poor 1-1, 4.97 ERA record at home. Note that Cleveland is already 6-2 (+3.4 units) in all interleague games, while St. Louis is just 4-5 (-3.8 units) in all interleague contests. Play on the INDIANS. AAA Sports |
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06-25-18 | Padres v. Rangers -160 | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 30 h 9 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Texas Rangers. We think this line could/should easily be a lot larger considering the talent discrepancy on the mound. The visitors hand the ball to Joey Lucchesi (3-3, 3.86 ERA) who most recently allowed four runs off three hits while striking out three over 1.2 innings in a loss to the A’s on Wednesday. It was his first start back in a month and the rust clearly showed. The home side goes with Cole Hamels (4-6, 3.41) who gave up one run off four hits while striking out seven over seven innings in a victory over Kansas City on Tuesday. It was the veteran’s sixth quality start in his last eight trips to the hill and note that he’s 4-2 with a 2.36 ERA in all night games. Note as well that San Diego just 8-14 (-2.6 units) as a road underdog in the +125 to +175 range, while Texas is 3-1 (+1.4 units) this year as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. Play on the RANGERS. AAA Sports |
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06-25-18 | Yankees v. Phillies +129 | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 9 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Philadelphia Phillies. We think that Vince Velasquez will find a way to out duel his counterpart in this interleague contest. The Yanks hand the ball to Jonathan Loaisiga (1-0, 3.12 ERA) who gave up three runs off six hits with two walks while striking out four over 3.2 innings in a no decision against Seattle on Wednesday. The 23-year old would need 84 pitches to get through his short time on the mound and we think he’ll struggle again in this tough environment. Velasquez (5-7, 4.82) gave up four runs off four hits over 6.1 innings, giving up three walks and striking out eight in a loss. While his ERA isn’t anything to write home about, Velasquez does own a sharp 1.28 WHOP and 97:29 K:BB over 80.1 innings. We like Velasquez to go deeper than Loaisiga and we think the PHILLIES will find a way to deliver the goods at the end of the night. AAA Sports |
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06-25-18 | Angels -152 v. Royals | 0-2 | Loss | -152 | 26 h 19 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the LA Angels. We think this is a bigger mismatch on the mound than what Vegas wants us to believe. The visitors hand the ball to Tyler Skaggs (6-4, 2.81 ERA) who under went a successful bullpen session on Saturday after his previous start was skipped over due to hamstring tightness. Skaggs has been cleared to go and he’ll be feeling confident here with a 5-1, 2.27 ERA record on the road. The Royals go with Brad Keller (1-2, 2.63) who has looked decent in four starts in place of the injured Eric Skoglund. His 5.2 K/9 rate though suggests that regression is imminent though. Note as well that LA is a superb 10-1 (+8.2 units) this year as a road fav in the -125 to -175 range, while KC is just 3-6 (-1.8 units) as a home underdog in the +125 to +175 range. This line could/should easily be a lot larger in our opinion, play on the ANGELS. AAA Sports |
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06-24-18 | A's v. White Sox UNDER 9 | 3-10 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 9 m | Show | |
This is an 8* O/U SITUATIONAL ASSASSIN on the UNDER A’s/White Sox. The first two games of this series have sailed OVER the number, but we’re finally expecting more of a “duel” in the finale. The A’s hand the ball to Paul Blackburn (1-1, 8.03 ERA) who gave up two runs off four hits while striking out four over five innings in a no-decision to the Padres on Tuesday. Blackburn bounced back nicely after getting rocked in his season debut, throwing 53 of his 85 pitches for strikes. Note that he owns a 3.60 ERA on the road. Chicago counters with Carlos Rodon (0-2, 4.41) who gave up four runs off five hits while striking out five over seven innings in a loss to the Indians on Tuesday. Rodon retired 11 of the final 12 batters he faced and he has to be feeling confident here as he sports a sharp 3.60 ERA at home and in day games thus far. We usually don’t put much stock in team trends when landing on a particular day, however it’s worth mentioning that Oakland has already seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of 12 this year when playing on a “Sunday,” while Chicago has seen the total go UNDER in all nine games that it’s played this year that happen to fall on a Sunday. All signs do indeed point to the UNDER as the savvy move in this one. AAA Sports |
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06-24-18 | Rangers v. Twins -172 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 23 h 8 m | Show | |
This is a 7* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Minnesota Twins. We look for Minnesota to fight back and salvage the final game of this three game set. The Rangers hand the ball to Bartolo Colon (4-4, 4.91 ERA) who gave up three runs off nine hits over six innings in a win over Kansas City on Monday. Colon pitched to contact and managed to survive against the league’s worst line-up. Still, the veteran owns a poor 5.5 K/9 and we think he’s completely outclassed in this matchup. The Twins go with Jose Berrios (7-5, 3.38) who gave up one run off five hits and three walks while striking out six over 6.1 innings against Boston on Tuesday, unfortunate to receive a no-decision. It was Berrios’ third straight quality start and sixth out of his last seven trips to the hill. Note that Berrios is 5-2 with a 2.93 ERA at home this season. We’re banking on Berrios easily outdueling his venerable counterpart this afternoon. Lay the price, play on the TWINS. AAA Sports |
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06-23-18 | Blue Jays v. Angels -122 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -122 | 26 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* MLB GAME OF THE YEAR on the LA Angels. Jaime Barria has been far from perfect this year, but we think this one sets up well for the hard-throwing right-hander. The Jays hand the ball to Marcus Stroman (0-5, 7.71 ERA) who returns from injury to make his first start. Stroman managed to get through a simulated game (due to the fact that his scheduled rehab start was rained out) and to go along with horrible record and ERA, note that he also sports a poor 1.71 WHIP over 37.1 innings of work. Barria (5-3, 3.57) comes in off an outing to forget against Arizona on Monday, allowing six runs off six hits with five strikeouts over four innings on Monday. As mentioned off the top, Barria hasn’t been at his best of late, but he still owns a respectable 3.96 ERA at home and a 4-2, 3.79 ERA record in all night games. Note as well that Toronto is just 16-21 (-1.6 units) this year against winning teams, while LA is 28-17 (+4.3 units) against clubs with losing records. Here’s a great situation/matchup for Barria and the hard-hitting ANGELS. AAA Sports |
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06-23-18 | Rangers v. Twins -129 | 9-6 | Loss | -129 | 19 h 9 m | Show | |
This is a 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Minnesota Twins. We think that this line could/should in fact be a lot larger. The visitors go with confirmed “gas can” Yovani Gallardo (0-0, 15.95 ERA) who most recently allowed five runs over five innings in a no-decision against the Rockies on Sunday. Gallardo posted a 30.86 ERA over three relief appearances for Cincinnati and he would struggle for his new team as well in his first start. The home side counters with Jake Odorizzi (3-4, 4.38) who gave up four runs off six hits and four walks while striking out five over five innings in a setback to the Indians on Sunday. Odorizzi has been decent of late and he comes into this one with a 4.38 ERA, 1.41 WHIP and 77:35 K:BB over 78 innings of work. Note as well that he’s 2-1 with a 2.28 ERA in all “day” games. As mentioned off the top, we think Gallardo is getting far too much respect in this matchup. Play on the TWINS. AAA Sports |
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06-23-18 | A's v. White Sox UNDER 9 | 7-6 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 8 m | Show | |
This is an 8* TOTAL ART OF THE GAME on the UNDER between the Oakland A’s and the Chicago White Sox. After yesterday’s high-scoring A’s slug-fest victory, we’re expecting runs to be at more of a premium on Saturday. Oakland hands the ball to Daniel Mengden (6-6, 4.06 ERA) who gave up four earned runs off six hits with three walks while striking out two over 5.2 innings against the Angels on Sunday. Mengden started the year on fire and has since regressed, but note that he’s still owns a sharp 3.02 ERA in all “day” contests. The White Sox hand the ball to Dylan Covey (3-2, 2.90) who gave up five runs off six hits and five walks over five innings in a loss to the Indians on Monday. Previous to this dud though, Covey had not allowed more than two runs in any of his last five outings. Note that he’s 2-0 with a tiny 1.42 ERA at home this year as well. With these two hungry starters battling deep into the latter frames, the savvy move in this matchup is on the UNDER. AAA Sports |
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06-22-18 | Padres v. Giants -140 | 6-2 | Loss | -140 | 31 h 27 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the San Francisco Giants (10:15 EST). The Padres’ Clayton Richard has been solid at home and poor on the road this year. We believe this trend carries over tonight. Richard (6-6, 4.31 ERA) most recently gave up two runs over six innings in a win over Atlanta on Friday. Richard has been decent of late, but as mentioned off the top, while he owns a respectable 3.86 ERA at home, he sports a pedestrian 4.91 ERA on the road (is also just 4-5 with a 4.63 ERA in all night games.) Chris Stratton (8-4, 4.22) gets the nod for the Giants and he most recently allowed three hits over six scoreless against the Dodgers on Sunday. The quality effort was the fourth straight in which he allowed no home runs. Now tied for second in the NL with eight victories, note that he’s 6-3 with a 3.63 ERA in all night contests this season as well. Stratton has actually been better on the road than at home this year, but we still think he has a major advantage over his veteran counterpart. Note as well that the Friars are just 16-20 on the road overall this year, while San Francisco is now 22-12 (+8.7 units) at home. We’re banking on Stratton continuing his progression, while Richard’s recent numbers look completely unsustainable. Lay the price, play on the GIANTS. AAA Sports |
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06-21-18 | Mariners +184 v. Yankees | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 10 m | Show | |
This is an 8* ASSASSIN on the Seattle Mariners. The Mariners let a 5-3 lead slip away in the ninth inning last night in New York and then they’d eventually fall 7-5 in extra frames. Underdog bettors and RUN-LINE wagerers would have taken an extremely “bad beat.” Seattle though looks to bounce back with its ace on the mound. James Paxton (6-1, 3.44 ERA) comes in off an outing to forget against the Red Sox on Friday, giving up six runs off six hits in a fortunate no-decision. We’re not reading too much into one lousy start, as note that the big southpaw still owns a 1.06 WHIP and has 115 strikeouts over 91.2 innings of work. Also note that he’s 3-0 with a 3.20 ERA on the road. Clearly it won’t be a cake walking Yanks’ ace Luis Severino (10-2, 2.09) who went eight scoreless against Tampa Bay on Saturday. Severino sports great numbers as well, with a 0.93 WHIP and a 118:25 K:BB over 99 innings of work. Both teams have been fantastic for bettors this year in almost every single ATS statistical category, but we absolutely expect Paxton to match Severino inning for inning this afternoon and in a scenario like that, we believe the value firmly swings in favor of the underdog. Play on the MARINERS. AAA Sports |
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06-20-18 | Red Sox -138 v. Twins | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -138 | 16 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Boston Red Sox. We feel that David Price and the hard-hitting visiting side are well worth the price of admission in this spot. Price (8-4, 3.76 ERA) gave up one run off five hits and no walks while striking out seven over seven innings in a victory over the Mariners on Thursday (we were on Boston in that one, our official MLB “GAME OF THE MONTH.”) Price has only given up one dinger over his last five starts and he’s allowed only nine earned runs over his last 30 innings of work, to go along with 33 strikeouts. Note that Price is 5-2 with a 3.59 ERA on the road thus far. The Twins counter with the erratic Lance Lynn (4-5, 4.98) who comes in off a decent showing against the Tigers on Thursday, giving up three runs over 6.2 innings in what turned out to be a setback in the end. Lynn has admittedly looked much better of late after a shaky start to the 2018 campaign, but note that he still owns a poor 4.78 ERA in all “night” contests this year. We like Price to continue his strong run on the road and for the RED SOX to take full advantage of this favorable matchup. Play on Boston. AAA Sports |
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06-20-18 | Braves v. Blue Jays -140 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show | |
This is an 8* ASSASSIN on the Toronto Blue Jays. We feel that this line could in fact be a lot larger considering the massive talent gap between the starting pitchers. The visitors hand the ball to Anibal Sanchez (3-0, 1.93 ERA) who receives another start in the rotation after a strong debut for his team, with a 1.93 ERA and 0.96 WHIP over six starts. So are these early numbers sustainable? We absolutely do not believe that will be the case. Note that Sanchez finished 3-7 with a 6.41 ERA last year with the Tigers, including 2-4 with a 7.24 ERA on the road and only 1-4 with an 8.10 ERA in all day games. The home side goes with ace JA Happ (8-3, 3.48) who received a no-decision against the Rays on Wednesday despite giving up one hit and three walks with four strikeouts over five scoreless. Over 14 starts Happ owns a strong 10.2 K/9 and note that he was very strong in all “day” contests last year with a 6-4, 3.47 ERA. We think Sanchez finally has a meltdown here and we expect Happ to continue his steady progression. Lay the price with confidence, play on TORONTO. AAA Sports |
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06-19-18 | Tigers +116 v. Reds | 5-9 | Loss | -100 | 26 h 50 m | Show | |
This is an 8* ART OF THE GAME on the Detroit Tigers. We think we’re getting great value on the better pitcher in this matchup. The visitors hand the ball to Matt Boyd (4-4, 3.23 ERA) who most recently gave up two runs off three hits with two walks while striking out five over five innings in a no-decision against Minnesota on Wednesday. Boyd owns the very respectable ERA to go along with an elite level 1.09 WHIP and note that despite his 1-3 road record, he does own a solid 3.97 ERA away from friendly confines. The home side goes with Sal Romano (3-7, 5.67) who gave up one run off four hits over eight innings against KC on Tuesday, unfortunate to receive a no-decision for his best effort of the season. Note that despite this decent performance, Romano has still be walloped for 27 combined runs over his last 22.2 innings of work. Note that he’s just 2-3 with a 5.26 ERA at home as well. Note as well that Detroit is 18-16 (+5.2 units) this year following a victory, while Cincinnati is just 9-16 (-4.9 units) following a win. Play on the TIGERS. AAA Sports |
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06-18-18 | Marlins v. Giants -140 | 5-4 | Loss | -140 | 26 h 36 m | Show | |
This is an 8* ASSASSIN on the San Francisco Giants. This is a great situational play. Caleb Smith (5-6, 3.75 ERA) faced the Giants at home on Wednesday and allowed three runs off eight hits over 6.1 innings in what turned out to be a no-decision. Smith has been excellent overall this year, but he’s struggled on the road with a 3-4, 4.41 ERA record. Also note that Smith is fresh coming off the bereavement list between this and his last start. Clearly Smith’s mind has been on off field issues the last few days and we think that Andrew Suarez (2-4, 4.92) and the home side will take advantage. Suarez threw opposite Smith in Miami last week and gave up two runs off five hits while striking out three over five innings in a no-decision as well. Suarez has gotten progressively better of late, so far posting a 3.31 ERA in June. Note that while he has a 6.18 ERA on the road, he has a very respectable 3.55 ERA at home. Note as well that Miami is just 14-22 on the road this year, while San Fran is 19-11 (+7.2 units) at home. In our opinion this line could/should easily be a lot larger. Play on the GIANTS. AAA Sports |
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06-17-18 | Marlins v. Orioles -156 | 4-10 | Win | 100 | 18 h 33 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Baltimore Orioles. The Marlins have taken the first two games of this three game interleague series as sizeable underdogs, but we think the hungry/revenge-minded home side will find a way to salvage the finale. Miami goes with Trevor Richards (1-3, 4.41 ERA) who earned his first career win over the Giants on Tuesday, allowing one run over six innings. Previous to that though Richards had only gone longer than five innings twice this season and totalled only five strikeouts over 13 innings. Also note that the 25-year old already has given up 17 walks over 34.2 innings total this year. The Orioles go with the red hot Dylan Bundy (4-7, 3.66) who went eight scoreless in a no-decision against Boston on Monday, allowing three hits to go along with seven strikeouts. Bundy has now posted four straight quality efforts and he hasn’t given up a run over his last 16 innings of work. Note as well that Bundy is a superb 3-1 with a 1.08 ERA in all “day” contests this season. When taking into account each pitchers current form, we absolutely believe that the ORIOLES could/should in fact be much larger favorites in this matchup. Lay the price. AAA Sports |
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06-16-18 | Mets v. Diamondbacks -150 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -150 | 26 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on the Arizona Diamondbacks. Steven Matz has been decent for New York this year, but he’s gotten little run support to this point. Patrick Corbin has been better than advertised for the D-Backs and we believe that he has a significant advantage over his counterpart tonight. Matz (2-4, 3.53 ERA) had his last start pushed back after a blister issue, but he’s been given the green light to go in this one. In his most recent outing Matz gave up three runs off five hits over six innings in a no-decision against the Yankees on Saturday. Matz though would throw on ly 57 of his 105 pitches for strikes, while also allowing two home runs. Corbin (6-2, 3.21) comes in off an outing to forget against the Pirates on Monday, allowing five runs off six hits and three walks with five strikeouts over 5.1 innings in a no-decision against the Pirates on Monday. No need to panic over one poor outing though in our opinion as poor starts have been few and far between for the hard-throwing southpaw. Corbin still comes into this one with a 3.10 ERA and a huge 110:25 K:BB to this point. Corbin has to be feeling confident here as well as note that he’s 4-2 with a 3.51 ERA at home and an even better 4-1 with a 3.11 ERA in all “night” contests. In our opinion, this line could/should easily be a lot larger. Play on the DIAMONDBACKS. AAA Sports |
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06-16-18 | Padres v. Braves -180 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 21 h 2 m | Show | |
This is a 9* ART OF WAR on the Atlanta Braves. We like the Braves to bounce back after yesterday’s defeat to the Padres. San Diego hands the ball to Jordan Lyles (2-3, 4.83 ERA) who most recently allowed four runs off 11 hits with two strikeout over six innings in a loss to St. Louis on Monday. Lyles has now allowed 11 home runs over his last 59.2 innings of work, leaving him with a horrible 1.7 HR/9 thus far. Note as well that Lyles has been terrible on the road with an 0-1, 6.38 ERA so far. The revenge-minded home goes with Sean Newcomb (7-2, 2.92) who comes in off an outing to forget against the Dodgers on Sunday, allowing five runs off seven hits over 5.1 innings while striking out six and walking two. It was his first loss since his very first outing of the year, so clearly there’s no reason to over-react to once sub-par performance. Newcomb now looks to bounce back and improve upon his very respectable 2.92 ERA and 74 strikeouts over 74 innings (note that he’s been sharp at home as well with a 2-1, 3.86 ERA record.) Note that the Padres are just 9-12 (-1.5 units) this year against lefties, while ATL is 28-18 (+12.9 units) against right-handed starters. Lay the price with confidence, play on the BRAVES. AAA Sports |
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06-16-18 | Reds v. Pirates -120 | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 20 h 58 m | Show | |
This is an 8* ASSASSIN on the Pittsburgh Pirates. We had a play on the Pirates yesterday and we think they offer great value in this spot as well. The Phillies go with Luis Castillo (4-7, 5.79 ERA) who comes in off a loss against St. Louis on Saturday after allowing five runs off four hits over six innings. Castillo would go on to give up two home runs and we’ll point out that while he averaged 97.5 MPH on his fast-ball last year, he’s averaging just 95.3 this season. Also note that he’s been horrible on the road this year with a 2-4, 6.64 ERA record. The home side hands the ball to Ivan Nova (3-5, 4.68 ERA), who returned from a stint on the DL to earn a dominant victory over Chicago on Sunday, allowing one run off four hits with eight strikeouts over six innings. It was Nova’s second highest strikeout total for the year and he’ll now look to improve upon his solid 3-2, 3.53 ERA in all “day” contests to this point. Note that the Reds are just 6-9 (-2.8 units) on the road when the money line in the contest is set between +125 and -125, while Pittsburgh is 6-2 (+3.4 units) in its last eight home games when the money line is set between +125 to -125. Play on the PIRATES. AAA Sports |
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06-15-18 | Giants v. Dodgers -194 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 26 h 52 m | Show | |
This is a 6* play on the LA Dodgers. Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason. The visitors hand the ball to Derek Holland (4-6, 4.54 ERA) who comes in off a strong outing against the Nationals on Sunday, giving up just three hits over five shut-out innings. Starts like that have been few and far between for the southpaw this year, he comes in sport the underwhelming 4.54 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and 57:27 K:BB over 67.1 frames. Note that Holland is a poor 1-5 with a 5.80 ERA in all “night” contests as well. The home side goes with Ross Stripling (5-1, 1.65) who gave up two runs while striking out six over 6.2 innings in a win over Atlanta on Sunday. Stripling has now posted five-straight victories and to go along with his sharp ERA, the right-hander also has a 1.05 WHIP. Additionally note that he’s 3-0 with a 1.62 ERA at home. Considering the talent gap on the mound, we absolutely believe that this line could/should in fact be a lot larger. Play on the DODGERS. AAA Sports |
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06-15-18 | Cubs v. Cardinals +100 | 13-5 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 58 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the St. Louis Cardinals. A couple of red hot hurlers go head-to-head in this one, but we think that Michael Wacha offers great value on his home field. The visitors hand the ball to Jon Lester (7-2, 2.22 ERA) who went seven scoreless in a victory over Pittsburgh on Saturday. That’s now back-to-back seven scoreless outings for Lester and simply put, we are expecting a predictable letdown here finally. Wacha (8-1, 2.47) gave up two runs off four hits with six strikeouts over six innings in a win over Cincinnati on Saturday. Wacha wasn’t perfect, but he still found a way to win, which happened to be his eighth straight. Note that he’s 5-0 with a 1.85 ERA at home thus far. We like Wacha to continue his dominant run at home, while Lester does indeed seem poised for a letdown. Play on the CARDINALS. AAA Sports |
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06-15-18 | Phillies v. Brewers UNDER 8.5 | 2-13 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 53 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the UNDER Phillies/Brewers. Two starters hungry for a victory go head-to-head in this one and we think they’re going to fight each other deep. As a result, all signs do indeed point to the UNDER as the savvy call in this matchup. The visitors hand the ball to Jake Arrieta (5-4, 2.97 ERA), who enters off a a tough outing against these very Brewers on Saturday, allowing five runs off four hits over 5.1 innings in what turned out to be a loss. Arrieta has struggled a bit of late, but he still comes in sporting an elite 5-2, 2.05 ERA in all “night” contests thus far. The home side goes with the ever improving Brent Suter (6-4, 4.61) who gave up three runs off four hits and five strikeouts in the victory throwing opposite Arrieta last weekend. Note that Suter owns a respectable 4.01 ERA in all “night” contests. Note as well that Philadelphia has seen the total go UNDER the number in nine of 14 already this year on the road when the total in the contest is set between 8 and 8.5, while Milwaukee has seen the total go UNDER in 19 of 30 at home. This number is a little high, play the UNDER. AAA Sports |
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06-15-18 | Reds v. Pirates -142 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 23 h 49 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Reds go with the erratic Matt Harvey (1-4, 5.97 ERA), who was very fortunate to receive a no-decision against St. Louis on Friday, allowing five runs off four hits (including three home runs) over six innings. Over his last 16 innings of work Harvey has been shelled for 13 runs (including 5 dingers) and note that he’s been terrible on the road with an 0-3, 6.21 ERA record so far. The home side hands the ball to Chad Kuhl (4-4, 3.95) who gave up three runs off eight hits and two walks while striking out six over 5.1 innings in a loss to the Cubs on Friday. Kuhl has been unfortunate of late, going 0-2 over his last three starts despite giving up just six runs over 17.1 total innings. A date at home is just what the doctor ordered to get back on track though as he’s already 2-1 with a 3.78 ERA in Pittsburgh. In our professional opinion this line could/should in fact be a lot larger. Play on the PIRATES. AAA Sports |
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06-15-18 | Rays +162 v. Yankees | 0-5 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 48 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the RAYS on the RUN-LINE. These teams played to a tight affair last night and we’re expecting another close one on Friday as well. The visitors go with Nathan Eovaldi (1-1, 3.94 ERA) who gave up three runs off four hits with no walks over five innings with three strikeouts in a no-decision to the Mariners on Sunday. Eovaldi looks to get back into the winners circle throwing opposite Jonathan Loaisiga (0-0, 0.00) who makes his big league debut tonight. Loaisiga posted a 3.00 ERA and a 58:4 K:BB over ten starts between Double and Triple-A, but clearly the book is still out on the rookie as how he’ll do at the major league level. Despite that Yanks hard-hitting line-up, we still believe that Loaisiga is getting far too much respect in this one. Play on the RAYS on the RUN-LINE. AAA Sports |
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06-14-18 | Red Sox -130 v. Mariners | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 27 h 60 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Boston Red Sox. The Mariners were engaged in an epic battle with the Angels to open the week and after their come from behind 8-6 win on Wednesday, we believe the home side will stumble in the opener of this three game set against the hard-hitting Red Sox. Boston on the other hand comes in off a convincing 5-1 win at Baltimore yesterday afternoon and all signs point to the visiting side carrying that momentum over here. David Price (7-4, 4.00 ERA) gets the nod for the Red Sox and he most recently gave up two runs off five hits while striking out six over six innings in a win over the White Sox on Saturday. The veteran has posted four quality starts out of his last six trips to the hill, posting a 2.89 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP and a 40:14 K:BB over that stretch. Note that Price is 4-2 with a 3.98 ERA on the road this season as well. The Mariners go with Felix Hernandez (6-5, 5.70) who was shelled for six runs off seven hits a walk while striking out two over three innings in a loss to Tampa Bay on Saturday. Note that it was the fifth time this year that “The King” has allowed at least five runs in a start. We think that Price is the correct call, as we predict he’ll carry over his consistent progression, while everything points to another letdown for the erratic Hernandez. Great price, play on the RED SOX. AAA Sports |
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06-13-18 | Rockies v. Phillies -135 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -135 | 23 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on the Philadelphia Phillies. We had a play on the Phillies in their 5-4 win yesterday and we think the home side will find a way to get the job done here as well. The Rockies hand the ball to Tyler Anderson (4-1, 4.81) who gave up two runs off five hits over seven innings in a no-decision to Cincinnati on Thursday. Anderson has been hit or miss this year; note that he owns a poor 6.12 ERA in all “night” contests to this point. The home side hands the ball to Nick Pivetta (4-5, 3.76) who gave up four runs while striking out six over five innings in an eventual loss to the Cubs on Thursday. Pivetta has been scuffling of late, but note that he’s a sharp 3-2 with a 2.20 ERA at home and we think the hard-throwing right-hander gets untracked in this one. Note that Colorado is now just 11-12 (-1.3 units) this year against clubs with winning records, while Philadelphia is 14-10 (+4.3 units) against teams with losing records. We think the PHILLIES secure another victory in front of the home town crowd. Lay the reasonable price. AAA Sports |
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06-13-18 | Pirates v. Diamondbacks -140 | 5-4 | Loss | -140 | 19 h 21 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Arizona Diamondbacks. We think that this line could/should in fact be a lot larger. The visitors hand the ball to Jameson Taillon (3-5, 4.08 ERA) who gave up three runs over five innings, while also allowing eight hits in a loss to the Dodgers on Thursday. Taillon has been hit or miss this year, but note that he’s just 1-3 with a 4.53 ERA on the road this year. The hard-hitting home side goes with Zack Greinke (5-4, 3.53) who comes in off a win against the Rockies on Thursday, giving up four runs off eight hits over 5.2 innings while also striking out five and walking two. Over 79 innings the veteran owns the very respectable ERA, as well as a 1.10 WHIP and 83:13 K:BB. Also note that he’s 3-0 with a 1.64 ERA at home this year. The DIAMONDBACKS are starting to dominate at the plate once again and we look for that momentum to get carried over here in this favorable matchup on the mound. Lay the price. AAA Sports |
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06-12-18 | Cubs v. Brewers UNDER 9.5 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 24 h 38 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the UNDER between the Cubs/Brewers. These teams combined for nine runs in the Cubs 7-2 win yesterday and we believe we’ll see even less on Tuesday. Tyler Chatwood (3-4, 3.86 ERA) gets the nod for the visitors and while he’s struggled at times this year, note that he owns a sharp 2.70 ERA on the road to this point. The home side goes with Chase Anderson (4-5, 4.57) who has been “hit or miss” this season as well, but who comes in with a decent 4-2, 3.91 ERA in all “night” contests to this point. Also note note that Chicago has already seen the total go UNDER the number in 18 of 29 on the road this season, while Milwaukee has seen the total go UNDER IN 17 of 27 at home. This number is a little high, play the UNDER. AAA Sports |
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06-12-18 | Mets v. Braves -150 | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 23 h 4 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Atlanta Braves. We feel that this line could/should in fact be a lot larger, swinging the value to the hard-hitting home side. The Mets hand the ball to the erratic Zack Wheeler (2-4, 4.57 ERA) who comes in off a strong start against the Orioles on Wednesday, allowing three hits over seven scoreless innings. Wheeler has looked better of late, but we’ll point out that he’s still a poor 1-3 with a 4.89 ERA in all “night” contests to this point. The Braves hand the ball to Mike Foltynewicz (5-4, 2.31) who gave up two earned runs off five hits while walking three and striking out eight in a loss to San Diego on Wednesday. Once again he avoided giving up a long-ball, pushing Foltynewic’s HR/9 down a tiny 0.6. Note that he’s been awfully sharp at home by going 2-1 with a 2.55 ER as well. Additionally note that New York is a horrible 12-15 (-4 units) this year following a victory, while Atlanta is 20-7 (+15.5 units) following a setback. This one highly favors the BRAVES. AAA Sports |
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06-12-18 | Rockies v. Phillies -150 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 23 h 36 m | Show | |
This is a 6* play on the Philadelphia Phillies. One of these starters has been a disaster all year, while the other is putting together his finest season of his career. We expect these trends to carry over here. The erratic Jon Gray (6-6, 5.66 ERA) gets the nod for the visitors and he actually comes in off a win on Wednesday, given yup three runs off seven hits and three walks over five frames against the soft-hitting Reds on Wednesday. Gray earned the win, but note that he’s now walked three batters in three straight starts and given up at least three runs over five straight trips to the mound. Gray also owns a poor 5.11 ERA in all night contests. Aaron Nola (7-2, 2.35) comes in off a no-decision against the hard-hitting Cubs on Wednesday, allowing three runs off four hits with six strikeouts over six innings. Nola owns the impressive 2.35 ERA, but note that he also sports an elite 80:22 K:BB over 84.1 innings and additionally note that he’s been at his best at home with a 5-0, 1.94 ERA record. The Rockies are already a poor 15-17 (-3.2 units) this year following a loss, while Philadelphia is 20-11 (+6.5 units) at home. Lay the price with confidence, play on the PHILLIES. AAA Sports |
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06-12-18 | Nationals v. Yankees -151 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 23 h 35 m | Show | |
This is a 6* play on the New York Yankees. We think the hard-hitting home side finds a way to get the job done at the end of the night. The Nationals hand the ball to Tanner Roark (3-6, 3.56 ERA) who picked up the victory against Tampa Bay on Wednesday, allowing two runs off six hits over six innings. Roark has pitched better than what his win/loss record would indicate, but note that the Nationals are still just 8-14 (-12.7 units) this year against southpaws. New York on the other hand is 27-15 (+3.6 units) against right-handed starters. The Yanks start CC Sabathia (3-1, 3.59) who comes in off another sharp outing against the Jays on Tuesday, allowing two runs off three hits and a walk while striking out six over seven innings in the eventual victory. Note that the veteran has been at his best in all “night” contests so far this year with a 3-1, 3.76 ERA record to this point. We think that Washington’s struggles against left-handed starters carries over here in the opener of this interleague contest. Lay the price, play on the YANKEES. AAA Sports |
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06-12-18 | Red Sox v. Orioles UNDER 9 | 6-4 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 34 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the UNDER between the Red Sox/Orioles. These teams combined for just two runs in the Red Sox 2-0 victory yesterday and in our opinion all signs point to another “duel” between these clubs on Tuesday. The Red Sox go with Eduardo Rodriguez (7-1, 3.68 ERA) who comes in off four straight wins, most recently giving up just one run off five hits and a walk over 5.2 innings while also striking out five in a win over Detroit in Wednesday. Note that Rodriguez is 2-0 with a 3.80 ERA on the road to this point. The Orioles hand the ball to David Hess (2-2, 3.07) who gave up one run off five hits and two walks over six innings while striking out four in a no-decision against the Jays on Thursday. Over his last 18.2 innings of work, Hess has allowed just two earned runs and note that he owns a sharp 3.00 ERA at home so far. Also note that Boston has seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of 13 already this year as a road favorite in the -125 to -175 range, while Baltimore has seen the total go UNDER in three of four as home dog in the +125 to +175 range. This number is a little high, play the UNDER. AAA Sports |
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06-11-18 | Pirates v. Diamondbacks -145 | 5-9 | Win | 100 | 25 h 11 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Arizona Diamondbacks. We like the suddenly surging Diamondbacks to keep the momentum rolling in front of the home town crowd tonight. The visitors hand the ball to Joe Musgrove (2-1, 1.89 ERA), who comes in off his first loss of the season, allowing four runs off six hits over five innings against the Dodgers on Tuesday. Musgrove got out to an unreal start to his campaign, one which we felt was clearly unsustainable. And we definitely believe that further regression is imminent. The home side counters with ace Patrick Corbin (6-2, 2.87) who comes in off a gem against San Francisco on Tuesday, giving up one run while walking two and striking out seven over 6.1 innings in the eventual victory. To go along with his sharp ERA, Corbin also owns an elite 0.94 WHIP and he’s holding his opponents to paltry .188 batting average. Additionally not that his 105 strikeouts are fourth best in the entire majors (owns a massive 11.6 K/9 thus far.) We think that Musgrove is getting far too much respect in this matchup and in this tough venue. Corbin hasn’t been perfect this year, but he’s been damn consistent and we look for him to continue to build momentum (just like his team) and find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Lay the price, play on the DIAMONDBACKS. AAA Sports |
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06-10-18 | Brewers v. Phillies -101 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 16 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on the Philadelphia Phillies (1:35 EST). Philadelphia took two of three from the Cubs earlier in the week, but it’s been blown out in back to back games against the Brewers. We look for the home side to bounce back on Sunday though with what we feel to be the far superior pitcher backing it. The visitors have recalled Brandon Woodruff (2-0, 6.05 ERA) from Triple-A Colorado Springs to make this start. Woodruff has been decent in the minors, but he’s had mixed success in his limited time in the big leagues this season; while he’s 2-0 on the road this year, note that he sports an atrocious 7.30 ERA in those contests. Philadelphia goes with Zach Eflin (2-2, 3.74) who gave up one run off eight hits and a walk while striking out two over eight innings in a victory over the Cubs on Tuesday. The hard-throwing right-hander would induce 11 swinging strikes and while he’s been far from perfect this year, we look for the 24-year old to build off his latest performance and to improve upon his very respectable 1-1, 3.67 ERA home record. Despite the back-to-back losses, the Phillies have been their best at home, coming into this one having gone 19-10 (+6.6 units) in friendly confines thus far this season. We look Eflin to out-duel Woodruff and for the motivated and revenge-minded PHILLIES to bounce back in the finale of this three-game set. AAA Sports |
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06-09-18 | Indians v. Tigers UNDER 9.5 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 21 h 32 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the UNDER between the Indians/Tigers. These teams played to a lower-scoring UNDER yesterday and in our opinion, everything points to another “duel” on Saturday afternoon as well. The Tribe hands the ball to Mike Clevinger (4-2, 3.36 ERA) who gave up four runs off seven hits with three strikeouts over six innings in a no-decision to the Twins on Sunday. Over his last 24.1 innings of work, Clevinger owns a 20:12 K:BB. However note that he’s a sharp 2-1 with a 2.38 ERA on the road this year and an even better 2-0 with a 2.17 ERA in all “day” contests. The Tigers go with Mike Fiers (5-3, 4.33) who comes in off a strong outing against the Yanks on Monday, giving up two earned runs off six hits over 5.2 innings, walking two and striking out six in the eventual victory. Note that Fiers is a solid 2-0 with a 4.11 ERA in all day games and 3-1 with a 3.97 ERA at home. We expect these two starters to battle into the latter frames and for this total to fall UNDER the number once it’s all said and done. AAA Sports |
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06-09-18 | Cardinals -123 v. Reds | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 19 h 32 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the St. Louis Cardinals. We think the Cards will build off the win yesterday with their ace on the mound. St. Louis turns to Michael Wacha (7-1, 2.41 ERA) who gave up one hits with two walks while striking out eight over eight scoreless in a victory over the Pirates on Sunday. Wacha comes into this one on top form, having posted a quality start in each of his past five outings; note that he’s 2-1 with a 2.59 ERA in all day contests as well. The Reds go with Luis Castillo (4-6, 5.64) who comes in off a second straight loss, giving up four runs off six hits over 4.2 innings while striking out three and walking one. Castillo has now been shelled for four earned runs in back-to-back outings and note that he’s just 2-3 with a 5.12 ERA in all day contests. In our opinion, this line could/should easily be a lot larger. AAA Sports |
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06-09-18 | Mariners v. Rays -130 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 19 h 32 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Tampa Bay Rays. The Rays fell 5-4 to the Mariners yesterday, but we believe that everything points to a bounce back on Saturday night. Seattle hands the ball to the erratic Felix Hernandez (6-4, 5.33 ERA) who went eight scoreless against Tampa Bay last week, striking out seven and walking one. Starts like that have been few and far between for Hernandez though and note that he owns a horrible 7.03 ERA on the road this year. Tampa goes with Blake Snell (7-3, 2.36) who went six scoreless against the Mariners throwing opposite Hernandez, giving up two hits and striking out 12 with zero walks. To go along with his super ERA, Snell also sports a tiny 0.94 WHIP; also note that he’s 3-1 with a 0.86 ERA at home. We like Snell to out duel his inconsistent counterpart and for the RAYS to bounce back after yesterday’s close defeat. AAA Sports |
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06-09-18 | Brewers v. Phillies -123 | 12-3 | Loss | -123 | 15 h 28 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Philadelphia Phillies. Everything points to a bounce back this afternoon for the home side after its loss yesterday. The Brewers turn to Brent Suter (5-4, 4.55 ERA) who most recently allowed two runs off three hits and two walks over five innings in a loss to the White Sox on Sunday. Suter has been hit or miss all year; note that he owns a 5.01 ERA in all night contests this season. The home side goes with Jake Arrieta (5-3, 2.66) who most recently allowed five runs off eight his and no walks in a loss to San Francisco on Sunday. A date at home though is just what the doctor ordered as note that the hard-throwing right-hander is 3-0 with a 0.84 ERA in front of the home town crowd; note that he’s also 5-2 with a 2.05 ERA in all night games. In our opinion, this line could/should in fact be a lot larger. Play on the PHILLIES. AAA Sports |
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06-09-18 | Giants v. Nationals -160 | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 14 h 28 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Washington Nationals. Everything points to a bounce back for the home side after yesterday’s defeat. The Giants go with Derek Rodriguez (1-0, 1.93 ERA), who will be demoted back to Triple-A after the return of Jeff Samardzija. Rodriguez would give up one run off five hits and two walks over six innings against the Phillies on Sunday. It was a great debut, but clearly the sample size is too small and in our opinion, regression seems imminent. The Nats go with Gio Gonzalez (6-2, 2.27) who enters off an unfortunate no-decision to the Braves on Saturday, allowing three runs off five hits with nine strikeouts over seven innings to go along with zero walks. Gonzalez comes in on top form, having allowed three or fewer runs in each of his last three starts and to go along with him impressive ERA, he also sports a solid 9.1 K/9 (also note that he’s 3-1 with a 2.10 ERA at home.) In our opinion, this line could/should easily be a lot larger. Lay the price, play on the NATIONALS. AAA Sports |
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06-08-18 | Astros v. Rangers +210 | 7-3 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 7 m | Show | |
This is an 8* ASSASSIN on the Texas Rangers. As good as he’s been this year, we think that Justin Verlander is overpriced in this situation. Verlander (7-2, 1.24 ERA) most recently gave up two runs off three hits with two walks over six innings in a no-decision against Boston on Saturday. It’s hard to say too many negative things about Verlander, but as mentioned off the top, we think he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time tonight. The home side counters with Doug Fister (1-6, 4.13 ERA), whose win/loss record is not entirely indicative of how he’s performed this season. Fister comes in off a second straight quality start, giving up three earned runs off four hits over six innings in what turned out to be a loss against the Angels on Sunday. Note that Fister owns a sharp 3.59 ERA in all “night” contests this year. Additionally note that the Rangers are 7-3 in their last ten as a home dog of +200 or more as well. The value is simply too good to turn down here, play on the RANGERS. AAA Sports |
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06-08-18 | Padres v. Marlins -130 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 23 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on the Miami Marlins. We think that hard-throwing Caleb Smith and the home side could/should easily be much larger favs in this particular matchup. The visitors hand the ball to the erratic Eric Lauer (2-3, 6.82 ERA) who gave up one run off five hits with two walks over five innings in a victory over Cincinnati on Saturday. Note though that he’d generate just three swinging strikes off 87 pitches. Lauer has been “ok” of late, but he’s now given up 51 hits over 34.1 innings of work and has posted five or more strikeouts in just two of his eight starts this year (note that he’s 0-1 with a 6.75 ERA on the road as well.) Smith (4-6, 4.03) comes off an outing to forget in which he allowed five runs off five hits while striking out five over four innings in an eventual loss to Arizona on Saturday. Smith though would generate 14 swinging strikes on 78 pitches and note that he’s been solid at home with a 3.51 ERA to this point. We like Smith to out duel his counterpart and find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Play on the MARLINS. AAA Sports |
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06-07-18 | Marlins v. Cardinals -200 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 3 h 32 m | Show | |
This is a 6* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the St. Louis Cardinals. Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason. We believe that the massive talent discrepancy on the mound absolutely justifies in laying this larger price. The visitors have recalled Trevor Richards (4.94 ERA in the bigs) to make this start. Richards has looked great in Triple-A, but to go along with his poor ERA in the majors, he also sports a mediocre 24:14 K:BB over 23.2 frames of work. Miles Mikolas (6-1, 2.49) gets the nod for the Cards and he most recently gave up two runs off six hits over six innings in an unfortunate loss to Pittsburgh on Friday. In seven of his 11 outings this year Mikolas has given up two runs or fewer while going at least six frames. To go along with his superb 2.49 ERA, Mikolas also sports an elite 1.00 WHIP, while holding his opposition to a mere .234 batting average. Note that he’s been particularly good at home as well with a 3-1, 1.53 ERA record. Note as well that Miami is just 6-11 (-1.2 units) in all day games this year, while St. Louis is 16-12 (+1.3 units) in all day contests. Lay the price with confidence, play on the CARDINALS. AAA Sports |
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06-06-18 | Tigers v. Red Sox -204 | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 24 h 33 m | Show | |
This is a 6* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Boston Red Sox. Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason, and in this case we absolutely believe that the hard-throwing Eduardo Rodriguez and the hard-hitting home side could/should in fact be much larger ones in this particular matchup. The visitors hand the ball to Blaine Hardy (2-0, 2.77 ERA) who gave up two runs off three hits and four walks while striking out three over six innings in a win over Toronto on Friday. Hardy is expected to head back to the bullpen after Jordan Zimmermann returns and clearly he draws a tough task on the road tonight. Rodriguez (6-1, 3.88) most recently gave up two runs off three hits and a walk with seven strikeouts over 6.2 innings in a victory over Toronto on Wednesday. I’ll point out as well that Boston is 7-2 in its last nine after shutting out its opponent in its previous game, while Detroit is just 2-4 in its last six after getting shutout. Lay the price with confidence, play on the RED SOX. AAA Sports |
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06-06-18 | Brewers v. Indians -186 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 18 h 34 m | Show | |
This is a 7* MLB MEMBER ONLY PLAY on the Cleveland Indians. We think the Tribe will build off yesterday’s victory and find a way to get the job done at the end of the night here as well. Chase Anderson (4-4, 4.45 ERA) gets the nod for the visitors and he most recently allowed four runs off five hits and a walk over 5.2 innings while striking out none in a loss to the soft-hitting White Sox on Friday. Note that Anderson has now failed to complete at least six innings of work in five of his last seven starts. To go along with his pedestrian 4.45 ERA, Anderson also sports an uninspiring 39:23 K:BB over 60.2 innings of work (note that he’s 0-2 with a 5.14 ERA in all “day” contests this year.) Carlos Carrasco (6-4, 4.50) also comes in off an outing to forget after giving up six runs off seven hits over 3.2 innings in a loss to the Twins on Friday. Carrasco has a 6.37 ERA over his last seven starts, but note that he’s posted a sharp 45:13 K:BB over 41 innings over that span. Note as well that the Tribe are 6-2 in their last eight after allowing two runs or less in their previous contest, while the Brewers are just 2-5 in their last seven after scoring two runs or less in their previous contest. Play on the INDIANS. AAA Sports |
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06-05-18 | Diamondbacks +115 v. Giants | 3-2 | Win | 115 | 26 h 14 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Arizona Diamondbacks. We think we’re getting great value on Patrick Corbin and the hard-hitting visiting side in this one. Corbin (5-2, 2.99 ERA) comes in off an outing to forget against the Reds on Wednesday, allowing six runs off eight hits while striking out ten over six innings. Outings like that have been few and far between for the southpaw the last two years though and note his 11.7 K/9 ranks behind only the Nationals’ Max Scherzer. Note as well that Corbin is 1-0 with a 3.07 ERA on the road and 3-1 with a 2.70 ERA in all “night” contests. The home side goes with Madison Bumgarner (0-0, 0.00) who makes his season debut for the Giants after breaking his hand during a spring training outing back on March 23rd. Last year Bumgarner was 4-9 with a 3.32 ERA. Clearly the book is still out on where Bumgarner’s performance level is at right now and there’s no question that he draws a tough first matchup. Note as well that Arizona is a sharp 18-10 (+8.6 units) this year against clubs with losing records, while San Fran is a poor 16-20 (-1.3 units0 against teams with winning records. Play on the DIAMONDBACKS. AAA Sports |
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06-05-18 | Braves -134 v. Padres | Top | 14-1 | Win | 100 | 26 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Atlanta Braves. We feel we’re getting great value on the visitors hard-throwing southpaw in this matchup. Atlanta goes with Sean Newcomb (6-1, 2.73 ERA) who comes in off a gem against the hard-hitting Nationals on Thursday, allowing two earned runs off four hits with two walks while striking out two over seven innings. Newcomb would generate 12 swinging strikes out 93 pitches and he’s now tied for third in the NL with six wins. Note that Newcomb is 4-0 with a 2.06 ERA on the road. Jordan Lyles (2-1, 3.65) gave up two earned runs off six hits over seven innings in a win over the light-hitting Marlins on Thursday. Don’t read too much into the one decent start though, as Lyles had been shelled for nine earned runs over his previous two starts. Lyles has been better at home than on the road, but note that the Friars are a poor 8-10 (-1.2 units) against southpaws this season. Conversely, note that the Braves are 24-16 (+10.9 units) against right-handed starters. Great value, play on the BRAVES. AAA Sports |
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06-05-18 | Marlins v. Cardinals -217 | 7-4 | Loss | -217 | 24 h 14 m | Show | |
This is a 6* play on the St. Louis Cardinals. Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason. The visitors go with the erratic Jose Urena (0-7, 4.41 ERA) who gave up one run off three hits and two walks over six innings in an unfortunate no-decision against the Padres on Wednesday. Urena is 0-1 with a 4.84 ERA on the road and has admittedly thrown better than what his win/loss record would indicate. However dominating the Padres at pitcher friendly Petco is one thing, while facing the hard-hitting Cards at home is quite another obviously. The home side goes with ace Carlos Martinez (3-2, 1.62) who returns from a stone on the DL after missing the last four weeks with a leg strain. Martinez made a re-hab start on Thursday and gave up two runs while striking out four over four innings. Note that Martinez has been very good at home this year with the tiny 1.48 ERA thus far. Note that Miami is just 12-28 (-9.6 units) this year against clubs with winning records, while St. Louis is 13-8 (+1.9 units) against clubs with losing records. Play on the CARDINALS. AAA Sports |
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06-05-18 | Rockies -112 v. Reds | 9-6 | Win | 100 | 23 h 10 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Colorado Rockies. We think that this is the very definition of “great line value.” Kyle Freeland (5-5, 3.43 ERA) gets the nod for the visitors and he most recently allowed three runs off eight hits with three strikeouts and no walks over 5.1 innings in a victory over the Giants on Tuesday. Freeland’s K:BB sits at 55:21 over 65.2 innings of work and note that he’s posted a sharp 4-3, 2.77 ERA in all “night” contests this season. Anthony Desclafani (0-0, 0.00) makes his debut for the Reds tonight. DeSclafani made four minor-league re-hab starts and allowed ten runs over 19.1 innings of work. DeSclafani hasn’t thrown in the majors since September of 2016 and we think he’ll have some predictable “growing pains” in his first start back to the bigs vs. the Rockies’ big bats. Note as well that Colorado is already 19-13 (+12 units) on the road this season, while Cincinnati is just 9-19 (-10 units) at home. Great value, play on the ROCKIES. AAA Sports |
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06-05-18 | Yankees -153 v. Blue Jays | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 23 h 5 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the New York Yankees. One of these starters has been a disaster, while the other continues to produce consistent results. All things considered, we feel this line could/should easily be a lot larger. The visitors hand the ball to CC Sabathia (2-1, 3.73 ERA) comes in off an outing to forget against the Astros on Tuesday, giving up five runs (three earned) off eight hits and two walks over five frames while striking out four in what turned out to be a no-decision. Sabathia has struggled of late after a great start to the year, but the veteran will look to turn the page in June; note that he’s still a sharp 2-1 with a 3.94 ERA in all night contests. The Jays send Marcos Estrada (2-6, 5.68) to the hill and he most recently was shelled for four runs off seven hits over 3.2 innings in a loss to Boston on Tuesday, striking out just one. Estrada has now allowed the most extra-base hits in the entire league. Note that he’s 0-4 with a 5.90 ERA at home and just 2-4 with a 6.62 ERA in all night contests. Note as well that New York is already 23-13 (+4.2 units0 this season against right-handed starters, while Toronto is just 8-16 (-8.8 units) against southpaws. Play on the YANKEES. AAA Sports |
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06-04-18 | Braves -107 v. Padres | Top | 4-11 | Loss | -107 | 27 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Atlanta Braves. We think that Julio Teheran and the hard-hitting Braves offer great value in this spot. Teheran (4-3, 4.03 ERA) most recently allowed just two runs off five hits with three strikeouts over seven innings in a loss to the Mets on Wednesday. Teheran would throw 61 of his 104 pitches for strikes. Note though that Teheran has been at his best on the road so far this season, going 3-2 with a 3.18 ERA. Clayton Richard (3-6, 4.74) gets the call for the Padres and he most recently allowed two runs off four hits over seven innings in a no-decision to the Marlins on Wednesday. Richard has benefited from throwing in the pitcher friendly confines of Petco Park to this point, but we believe the regression is on the horizon. Also note that Atlanta is already 11-7 (+4.8 units) against left-handed starters this year, while San Diego is just 17-24 (-1.9 units) against right-handed starters. We think Teheran can easily match Richard inning for inning and in a scenario like that, we’re banking on the hard-hitting visiting side coming through with the rest. Play on the BRAVES. AAA Sports |
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06-03-18 | Phillies -127 v. Giants | 1-6 | Loss | -127 | 21 h 23 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Philadelphia Phillies. We believe that the talent discrepancy on the mound absolutely justifies in laying this price. The visitors go with Jake Arrieta (5-2, 2.16 ERA) who went seven shutout frames against the Dodgers on Tuesday, allowing two walks with five strikeouts. Over his last two starts Arrieta has posted 12 strikeouts with just one run. Note that he’d finish May with a tiny 0.90 ERA spanning 30 innings of work. The Giants go with Derek Rodriguez (0-0, 2.70) who gets the nod after completion a bullpen session on Friday after taking a line drive off his right leg in an outing against the Rockies on Tuesday. Rodriguez had success in Triple-A, but the book is still out on what he’ll be able to do in the big leagues. And while the sky is the limit for Rodriguez, we think he’s getting much too much respect here against the red hot Arrieta. Fantastic value on the PHILLIES on Sunday afternoon. AAA Sports |
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06-03-18 | Pirates v. Cardinals -140 | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 20 h 33 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the St. Louis Cardinals. St. Louis managed a tight 3-2 win on Saturday afternoon and we expect the home side to find a way to deliver the goods on Sunday as well with its ace on the mound. The visitors hand the ball to Nick Kingham (2-1, 3.75 ERA) who will get another start in the rotation because of the injury to Ivan Nova. In his previous outing Kingham gave up three runs off eight hits in a no-decision against the Cubs on Tuesday. Kingham has been sharp in his limited time as a starter, but he clearly draws a tough matchup here. The home side turns to Michael Wacha (6-1, 2.71) who gave up one run over seven innings to earn the victory over the Brewers on Tuesday. Wacha has now allowed two earned runs or fewer in eight straight starts and note that he’s been at his best at home by going 4-0 with a 2.21 ERA thus far. Kingham’s been great, but Wacha has been downright nasty in friendly confines and we think he offers fantastic value in this matchup. Play on ST. LOUIS. AAA Sports |
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06-03-18 | A's v. Royals -105 | 5-1 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 33 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the KC Royals. We like the Royals to build off their 5-4 win yesterday. The A’s hand the ball to Daniel Gossett (0-3, 6.05 ERA) who gave up three runs off eight hits and two walks in a loss to the Rays on Tuesday. Note that Gossett has been especially horrible on the road this year with the enormous 13.50 ERA. The Royals go with Jake Junis (5-4, 3.61) who comes in off a hard-luck loss against the hard-hitting Twins on Monday, allowing three runs off six hits and four walks over six innings, also going on to strike out seven. Note that Junis has now posted at least seven strikeouts in four of his last five innings. Also note that he’s a strong 2-1 with a 2.92 ERA in all day contests this year. The ROYALS have struggled to put runs on the board this season, but they broke out in a big way in yesterday’s victory and we expect that momentum to get carried over here. Play on KC. AAA Sports |
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06-03-18 | Indians v. Twins UNDER 9 | 5-7 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 29 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the UNDER Indians/Twins. We expect these hungry starters to fight into the latter frames. The visitors hand the ball to Mike Clevinger (4-2, 3.14 ERA) who gave up one run off four hits and two walks with seven strikeouts over seven innings in a victory over the White Sox on Tuesday. Note that Clevinger has been fantastic on the road this year with a 2-1, 1.61 ERA thus far. Kyle Gibson (1-3, 3.57) gets the nod for the home side and he most recently struck out eight over seven scoreless in a win over Kansas City on Tuesday. Note that it was Gibson’s third scoreless outing of the year. Gibson owns a sharp 1.25 WHIP and is holding his opponents to a mere .222 batting average and we have no reason not to believe that he won’t be able to carry over that momentum here. This pick is based entirely on these starting pitchers, because as we said off the top, we’re fully expecting them to both go deep into this one. Play the UNDER. AAA Sports |
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06-03-18 | Blue Jays v. Tigers -123 | 8-4 | Loss | -123 | 18 h 29 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Detroit Tigers. We had a play on the Tigers on the RUN LINE yesterday and we wouldn’t even need the extra runs of insurance. The Jays come in reeling here and we think the Tigers can smell the blood in the water. While neither of these starters instills much confidence, we still believe that Michael Fulmer and the surging home side are the correct call here. The visitors go with Aaron Sanchez (2-5, 4.77 ERA) who was shelled for seven runs off nine hits over five innings in a loss to the Red Sox on Monday. After a decent April, Sanchez was a disaster in May, posting a 5.96 ERA over just 22.2 innings of work. Unfortunately a date on the road is not what the doctor ordered to get untracked as he’s just 2-3 with a 5.34 ERA away from friendly confines. Fulmer (2-4, 4.60) also comes in off a poor outing, allowing five runs off six hits over 3.1 innings in a setback to the Angels on Tuesday. Fulmer has struggled at home this year as well (0-3, 5.02), but note that the Tigers are 7-2 in their last nine after scoring seven or more runs in their previous contest. Momentum can be a very real, almost tangible factor at times and we think that Detroit rides its current wave of production to another solid win at home on Sunday afternoon. Great price, play on the TIGERS. AAA Sports |
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06-02-18 | Marlins v. Diamondbacks -140 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 25 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on the Arizona Diamondbacks. Caleb Smith has been better than advertised this year, but we still think he’s in over his head in this tough venue. Smith (4-5, 3.51 ERA) most recently gave up one run off four hits with four strikeouts over seven innings in a victory over the Padres on Monday. Smith looked great in May, but April was a disaster. So what does June hold in store for the second year pro? The home side goes with Zack Greinke (3-4, 3.65) who gave up two earned runs off six hits while striking out five over six innings in an unfortunate loss to the A’s on Sunday. Greinke has been as solid as the D-Backs could possibly hope for this season as to go along with his respectable ERA, he also sports an elite 1.04 WHIP and 72:10 K:BB over 66.2 innings. And note that Greinke has been at his absolute best at home this year by going 2-0 with a 1.69 ERA to this point. ARIZONA blew out the Marlins last night and all signs point to a similar destruction here as well. Lay the price. AAA Sports |
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06-02-18 | Blue Jays v. Tigers +1.5 | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 19 h 26 m | Show | |
This is an 8* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Detroit Tigers (4:10 EST). The Tigers smashed the Jays yesterday and while the outright win isn’t out of the question here either, we think the value is the home side on the RUN-LINE for the near pick-em price. The visitors go with JA Happ (7-3, 3.84 ERA) who gave up three runs off six hits over 6.2 innings in a win over the Phillies on Sunday. It’s hard to say anything negative about Happ, as he’s been Toronto’s best pitcher this year, but we simply feel he’s over-priced in this matchup. The home side turns to the underrated Matt Boyd (3-4, 3.00) who went five scoreless in a victory over the Angels on Monday. Boyd’s red hot spring training has carried over for the most part in the regular season and note that he’s consistently been at his best in front of the home town crowd this year by going 3-1 with a 1.84 ERA. Note as well that Toronto is a horrible 8-14 (-6.4 units) against southpaws, while Detroit is a solid 8-7 (+4.4 units) against lefties. Play on the TIGERS on the RUN-LINE. AAA Sports |
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06-02-18 | Yankees -172 v. Orioles | 8-5 | Win | 100 | 19 h 22 m | Show | |
This is a 6* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the New York Yankees (4:05 EST). We think that the “Evil Empire” will build off its victory last night. The Yanks go with Masahiro Tanaka (6-2, 4.62 ERA) who gave up one run off three hits while striking out eight over six innings in a victory over the hard-hitting Angels on Sunday. That’s two straight wins for Tanaka and while his 4.62 ERA is nothing to write home about, the hard-throwing right-hander does own an elite 1.09 WHIP and has 58 strikeouts over 62.1 innings of work. Also note that Tanaka is 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA in all “day” games to this point. The home side goes with Kevin Gausman (3-4, 4.31) who gave up seven runs off six hits and two walks over just 2.2 innings in a loss to the Rays on Sunday, striking out one. After a decent little stretch, Gausman has now allowed six runs of more in two of his last three starts and note that he’s 1-2 with a 7.85 ERA in all day games. Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in this case, we feel that Tanaka and the hard-hitting visiting side could/should easily be much larger ones. Lay the price, play on NEW YORK. AAA Sports |
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06-01-18 | Pirates v. Cardinals -140 | 4-0 | Loss | -140 | 25 h 48 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the St. Louis Cardinals. We look for the Cards to find a way to get the job done in front of the home town crowd tonight. The visitors hand the ball to Jameson Taillon (2-4, 4.53 ERA) who gave up three earned runs off five hits while walking one and striking out six over 6.1 innings against the Cards on Sunday. In his previous outing against the Reds, Taillon was shelled for six earned runs though. Suffice it say, we think Taillon struggles again here as note that he’s a poor 0-3 with an elevated 5.47 ERA on the road. St. Louis goes with Miles Mikolas (6-0, 2.58) who gave up four earned runs while striking out five in a no-decision to the Pirates throwing opposite Taillon last week. Mikolas would allow just six base runners and he’s now gone three straight starts without allowing a single home run. Also note that he’s 3-0 with a 1.53 ERA at home this year. We like Mikolas and ST. LOUIS in this matchup and believe that this line could/should easily be a lot larger. AAA Sports |
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06-01-18 | Red Sox +115 v. Astros | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Boston Red Sox. As good as Gerrit Cole has been for the defending champs, we think that we’re getting awesome value here on the hard-hitting Red Sox and their ace Chris Sale. Sale (5-2, 2.76 ERA) will be extra motivated here after a rare poor performance against the Braves on Sunday, getting shelled for six runs off five hits while striking out eight over 4.1 innings. Despite that sub-par effort, Sale still owns the elite ERA to go along with a sharp 0.96 WHIP. Cole (5-1, 2.05) gave up three runs off four hits over seven innings in a no-decision to the Indians on Sunday. It’s hard to say anything negative about Cole, as he’s exceeded expectations to this point. We will point out though that the Astros are just 3-6 (-2.7 units) in their last nine as a home fav in the -125 to -150 range, while the Red Sox are 6-2 (+4.2 units) in their last eight as a road dog in the +100 to +150 range. Play on BOSTON. AAA Sports |
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06-01-18 | Nationals v. Braves UNDER 8.5 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 24 h 18 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the UNDER between the Nationals/Braves. We’re expecting these team’s respective “aces” to fight deep into this one and as a result, we look for this total to fall UNDER the number once it’s all said and done. The Nats turn to Stephen Strasburg (6-4, 3.13 ERA) who went five scoreless and struck out eight in a victory over the Marlins on Sunday. Strasburg would allow only two opponents to get past first base and he’d go on to throw 66 percent of his pitches for strikes. Also note that he’s now allowed three runs or fewer in his last five trips to the mound, so we find no reason no to think that the dynamic right-hander won’t be able to continue his progression here. The Braves’ go with Mike Foltynewicz (4-3, 2.55) who gave up one run off three hits with seven strikeout over seven innings in a win over the hard-hitting Red Sox on Sunday. Foltynewicz’s numbers are elite across the board, with the 2.55 ERA and 1.28 WHIP, with 69 strikeouts over 60 frames of work. Also note that Washington has seen the total go UNDER the number in 16 of 26 on the road already this season, while Atlanta has seen the total go UNDER In 20 of 35 “night” contests. This number is a little high, play the UNDER. AAA Sports |
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06-01-18 | Cubs v. Mets OVER 8.5 | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 24 h 44 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the OVER Cubs/Mets. We think these two struggling starters get the hook early and as a result, all signs do indeed point to the OVER as the savvy call in this matchup. The visitors hand the ball to Tyler Chatwood (3-4, 4.10 ERA) who was shelled for three runs off six hits over just 2.2 innings in a fortunate no-decision against the Giants on Sunday. It was the second straight outing in which Chatwood has lasted just 2.2 frames and during that span he owns a poor 4:11 K:BB. Also note that Chatwood’s 1.76 WHIP over 48.1 innings of work leaves everything to be desired as well. The home side turns to the erratic Zack Wheeler (2-4, 5.40) who gave up four runs off six hits with two walks in a no-decision in his latest outing. Previous to this outing Wheeler had allowed ten or more runners to reach base over three trips to the mound. Wheeler looked a bit better in this latest performance, but note that he’s still a brutal 0-4 with an elevated 7.36 ERA at home this year. Note as well that Chicago has seen the total go OVER the number in four of its last five on the road when the total in the contest is set between 8 and 8.5, while New York has seen the total go OVER in five of its last seven when the money line in the contest is set between +125 and -125. Play the OVER. AAA Sports |
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06-01-18 | Yankees v. Orioles UNDER 10 | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 20 h 59 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the UNDER Yanks/Orioles. We look for these starters to fight deep into this one and as a result, all signs do indeed point to this number being a little high. The Yanks hand the ball to Masahiro Tanaka (6-2, 4.62 ERA) who comes in off a great showing against the Angels last time out, giving up one run off three hits while striking out eight across six innings. Tanaka has posted back to back victories and while his ERA isn’t anything to write him about yet, note that he does still sports a sharp 1.09 WHIP and 58 strikeouts over 62.1 frames of work (note that he’s 4-0 on the road thus far.) The Orioles go with Kevin Gausman (3-4, 4.31) who enters off an outing to forget, allowing seven runs off six hits and two walks over just 2.2 innings in a loss to the Rays on Sunday. The silver lining though was that Gausman would post nine strikeouts in his limited time. Previous to this dud though Gausman had pitched three quality efforts out of his last four tries, so we’re definitely not reading too much into one crummy performance. Also note that Guasman is 3-2 with a 3.99 ERA at home thus far. Note as well that New York has seen the total go UNDER the number in five of eight already this year as a road fav in the -125 to -175 range, while Baltimore has seen the total go UNDER in 16 of its 25 at home already. This number is a little high, play the UNDER. NOTE: There’s been a pitching change in this one after yesterday’s game was cancelled, as Gausman is out for the O’s and Thursday’s original starter Andrew Cashner will get the call. THIS PLAY IS STILL VALID. Cashner (2-6, 5.07) was roughed up in his latest outing against the Rays on Saturday, but previous to that dud he’d given up three or fewer earned runs in four consecutive starts. We look for the vet bounce back in this one. Also note that Sonny Gray will get the start for New York. Gray (3-4, 5.98) comes in off an outing to fogey against the Angels on Saturday, but note that he’s 3-0 with a 2.63 ERA in all “day” games. AAA Sports |
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05-31-18 | Angels -214 v. Tigers | 2-6 | Loss | -214 | 17 h 2 m | Show | |
This is a 6* BIG-CHALK DESTRUCTION on the LA Angels (1:10 EST). We feel that the massive talent discrepancy on the mound in this matchup absolutely justifies in laying this larger price. The Angels turn to Andrew Heaney (2-3, 3.09 ERA) who comes in off a gem against the hard-hitting Yanks on Friday, allowing one run and three walks while striking out five over 6.1 innings in what turned out to be an unfortunate no-decision. Heaney posted 15 called strikes and 17 swinging strikes off 97 pitches and he’s now allowed two earned runs or fewer in each of his last six trips to the hill. Note that Heaney owns a very respectable 3.12 ERA on the road as well. The home side goes with the erratic Ryan Carpenter (0-1, 8.31) who is being recalled from Triple-A Toledo to make this start. Over 8.2 inning of work over three appearances for the Tigers Carpenter has been rocked for eight runs and most recently was shelled for 14 hits in a three-inning appearance for Toledo on May 21st. As mentioned off the top, we absolutely believe this line could/should in fact be a lot larger. Play on the ANGELS. AAA Sports |
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05-30-18 | Cubs -122 v. Pirates | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -122 | 24 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on the Chicago Cubs. The Cubs came out on top 8-6 in Pittsburgh last night and we think that the visitors will get the job done on Wednesday as well. Chicago turns to Kyle Hendricks (4-3, 3.16 ERA) who after a shaky start has gotten progressively better this season. Hendricks most recently gave up one run off two hits while striking out seven over seven innings in a victory over San Francisco on Friday. Note that Hendricks has now posted 19 strikeouts over his last 18 frames of work; also note that he’s a solid 3-1 with a 3.03 ERA in all “night” contests. The home side goes with Joe Musgrove (1-0, 0.00) who after blanking the Cards on Friday in his season debut by going seven scoreless with no walks and striking out seven, looks poised for some epic regression. Musgrove owns a rather pedestrian 4.52 lifetime ERA and we think he’ll predictably stumble here. Overall we feel that this line could/should in fact be a lot larger. Play on the CUBS. AAA Sports |
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05-30-18 | Cardinals v. Brewers UNDER 9 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 18 h 16 m | Show | |
This is an 8* ASSASSIN on the UNDER between the Cards/Brewers. These teams went UNDER the number in the Cards 6-1 win yesterday (we had a play on St. Louis in that one.) We think this one sets up as another lower-scoring pitchers duel as well. The visitors turn to Alex Reyes (0-0, 0.00 ERA), who makes his season debut this afternoon. Reyes has been in re-hab up until now and in his time in Triple-A he’s been completely dominant, posting 44 strikeouts over 23 innings of work. Reyes is expected to get a full work load and he’ll anchor the fifth spot in the rotation until others become healthier. The home side goes with Junior Guerra (3-3, 2.98) who earned a no-decision against the Mets in his latest start despite giving up just two runs off five hits over six innings. Note that Guerra comes in with the solid 3.57 ERA in all “night” games. We expect these two starters to fight into the late innings and as a result, all signs do indeed point to the UNDER as the savvy call in this matchup. AAA Sports |
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05-29-18 | Marlins v. Padres -150 | 5-9 | Win | 100 | 25 h 56 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the San Diego Padres. We think this line could/should easily be a lot larger. The visitors turn to Dan Straily (2-0, 3.12 ERA) who gave up one run off four hits with three walks over six innings in a no-decision against the Mets on Wednesday. While his ERA remains strong, his peripherals suggest regression (a poor 19:17 K:BB through 26 innings) is imminent. The Padres turn to Tyson Ross (4-3, 3.13) who gave up one run off five hits and a walk with nine strikeouts over 6.2 innings in a victory over the Nationals on Wednesday. So far Ross has posted four quality outings out of five trips to the hill this month, giving up two or fewer runs at the process. Ross has to be feeling confident here as he’s 2-1 with a 3.38 ERA at home and 3-1 with a 2.68 ERA in all “night” contests. This one has blowout written all over it, play on the PADRES. AAA Sports |
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05-29-18 | Reds v. Diamondbacks -115 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 24 h 26 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Arizona Diamondbacks. We had a play on Arizona in its 12-5 win yesterday (our MLB “GAME OF THE WEEK!”) and we expect the home side to find a way to get the job done here as well. The Reds turn to Luis Castillo (4-4, 5.34 ERA) who gave up two runs off four hits over six innings in a victory over the Pirates on Thursday. Castillo has put together a nice month after a disastrous start to the season, but note that he’s still just 2-2 with a 6.37 ERA on the road to this point. The Diamondbacks go with Zack Godley (4-4, 4.53) who comes in off an outing to forget against the Brewers on Wednesday, allowing eight runs off seven its over 3.1 innings. Godley has struggled of late, but the hard-throwing right-hander has to be feeling confident in a bounce back here as he’s been at his best at home this season with a 2-1, 2.92 ERA record thus far. Note as well that Arizona is 19-16 (+3.2 units) in all “night” contests this year, while Cincinnati is just 12-21 (-6.3 units) in all night games. Great value, play on the DIAMONDBACKS. AAA Sports |
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05-29-18 | Cardinals -108 v. Brewers | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 22 h 27 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the St. Louis Cardinals. We like the Cards to bounce back here off their 8-3 defeat to the Brewers yesterday. The visitors turn to ace Michael Wacha (5-1, 2.88 ERA) who gave up two runs (just one earned) off four hits while striking out six over 6.2 innings in an unfortunate no-decision agains the Royals on Wednesday. After a shaky start to the year, Wacha has now given up two or fewer runs in seven consecutive trips to the mound and note that he’s 4-0 with a 2.48 ERA in all night contest to this point. The home side goes with the erratic Zach Davies (2-4, 4.74) who gave up four runs off six hits over four innings in a loss to the Mets on Thursday. Go to along with his uninspiring ERA, Davies also owns a pedestrian 1.34 WHIP. Note as well that Davies is just 1-2 with a 6.91 ERA in all night games this season. We absolutely believe that Wacha is undervalued in this matchup. Play on the CARDINALS. AAA Sports |
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05-29-18 | White Sox v. Indians UNDER 9.5 | 3-7 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 57 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the UNDER between the White Sox and Indians. We think this number is a little high. The White Sox turn to Lucas Giolito (3-5, 7.53 ERA) who comes in off an outing to forget against the Orioles on Thursday, getting shelled for seven runs off six hits over just 1.1 innings of work. Giolito is clearly struggling, but note that he was 3-3 with a 2.38 ERA last year. Also note that Chicago has seen the total go UNDER the number in five of its last seven after allowing nine or more runs in its previous outing (lost 9-6 to the Tribe yesterday.) The home side goes with Mike Clevinger (3-2, 3.32) who also comes in off a poor outing (a rare sub-par effort though), giving up five earned runs off seven hits and three walks while striking out four over 5.1 innings in a loss to Houston on Thursday. Overall Clevinger’s numbers remain strong though, also sporting a sharp 1.22 WHIP thus far. We’ll point out as well that the Indians have seen the total go UNDER the number in six of their last eight after scoring nine or more runs in their previous outing. Play the UNDER. AAA Sports |
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05-28-18 | Reds v. Diamondbacks -156 | Top | 5-12 | Win | 100 | 19 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Arizona Diamondbacks. One of these starters has been a “gas can” all year, while the other continues to progress with almost every outing. The visitors hand the ball to the erratic Homer Bailey (1-6, 6.21 ERA) who would give up four runs off ten hits over five innings against the Pirates on Wednesday. Note that Bailey has been struggled on the road by posting a 4.94 ERA. Matt Koch (2-2, 3.77) gets the nod for the home side and he would take a hard-luck loss against Milwaukee in his latest outing, giving up one run off three hits over 5.1 innings while striking out five on Tuesday. Note that the Reds are just 6-8 (-1.1 units) as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range this season, while the D-Backs are 8-6 (+1.3 units) as a home fav in the +125 to +175 range. We’re expecting Koch to easily get the better of his floundering counterpart this afternoon. Lay the price, play on ARIZONA. AAA Sports |
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05-28-18 | Angels v. Tigers +159 | 3-9 | Win | 159 | 16 h 0 m | Show | |
This is a 9* SUPER BLOWOUT on the Detroit Tigers. We believe that Matt Boyd and the home side offer great value in this particular matchup. The visitors go with Tyler Skaggs (3-3, 3.11 ERA) who gave up three runs off six hits over five innings while striking out six in a no-decision to the Blue Jays on Wednesday. Boyd (2-4, 3.29) left his last start early due to an oblique issue. Before he left though he’s allow two runs with four strikeouts over four innings in a no-decision against the Twins. It should be noted that Boyd is 2-1 with a 2.22 ERA at home. Skaggs has been pretty good on the road, but we think the Angels are way over-valued in this particular matchup. Great value, play on the TIGERS. AAA Sports |
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05-27-18 | Diamondbacks +1.5 v. A's | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 26 m | Show | |
This is a 6* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Arizona Diamondbacks. We like Arizona to keep this one close enough to at the very least, cover with the point spread. The visitors hand the ball to Zack Greinke (3-3, 3.71 ERA) who gave up four runs off five hits while striking out nine over six innings in a loss to the Brewers on Monday. Starts like that have been few and far between for Greinke though, who still owns a solid 3.71 ERA to go along with an elite 0.99 WHIP and 67 strikeouts over 60 innings of work. The home side goes with Frankie Montas (0-0, 0.00) who has been recalled from Triple-A Nashville to make this start. Over 41 innings for the Sounds, the 25 year old owns a pedestrian 4.39 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and a 33/13 K/W. Last year in relief for the A’s he’d post a poor 7.03 ERA over 32 innings of work. The Diamondbacks have been struggling at the plate of late, but after yesterday’s 3-0 defeat, we look for Greinke to keep this one competitive. Lay the price, play on the DIAMONDBACKS on the RUN-LINE. AAA Sports |
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05-26-18 | Blue Jays v. Phillies -181 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 21 h 18 m | Show | |
This is a 7* MEMBER ONLY PLAY on the Philadelphia Phillies. We had a play on the Phillies yesterday as well and while that pick didn’t turn out the way we expected, we’re definitely look for the home side to respond with a very convincing effort here. The visitors hand the ball to the erratic Jaime Garcia (2-3, 6.28 ERA) who returns to the starting rotation after a brief stint on the DL. Over eight starts Garcia owns the poor 6.28 ERA for his new team and note that he’s been particularly horrible on the road with a 1-2, 9.68 ERA thus far. The home side counters with Aaron Nola (6-2, 2.37) who gave up four earned runs off seven hits while striking out six and walking one in a 5-1 loss to the Cards on Sunday. Despite the sub-par effort, Nola still enters this one with the elite 2.37 ERA and 1.02 WHIP over 64.2 innings of work and note that he’s been very good in this spot all year by going 5-0 with a 2.06 ERA at home. We like PHILADELPHIA to respond in a big way this evening, so lay the price with confidence. AAA Sports |
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05-26-18 | Braves v. Red Sox UNDER 10 | 6-8 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 19 m | Show | |
This is an 8* TOTAL ART OF THE GAME on the UNDER between the Braves/Red Sox. We think that these capable starters battle each other into the latter frames and as a result, we expect this total to sneak below the posted number once it’s all said and done. The visitors hand the ball to Sean Newcomb (5-1, 2.39 ERA) who has a 0.36 ERA, 0.76 WHIP and 24 K’s over his last 25 innings of work. Newcomb was given an extra day off before this one, so the southpaw will be completely rested/focused and ready to go for this one. The home side counters with Drew Pomeranz (1-2, 5.97) who looks to get back on track after only last four innings in each of his last two starts. Pomeranz was given an extra few days off to work on his mechanics: "Getting real rotational," said Pomeranz. "It's something exactly what I did last year, it's something that I've struggled with." Note that ATL has already seen the total go UNDER the number in 15 of 26 against clubs with winning records this year, while Boston has seen the total go UNDER in ten of 15 “day” games. This number is indeed a little high, play the UNDER. AAA Sports |
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05-25-18 | Reds +171 v. Rockies | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 12 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Cincinnati Reds. Coors Field is the great equalizer for starting pitchers. Suffice it to say, we think that Jon Gray and the Rockies are completely overvalued in this one. The visitors hand the ball to Sal Romano (2-5, 5.62 ERA) who comes in off an outing to forget by giving up six runs off eight hits with two strikeouts over 2.1 innings in a loss to San Francisco on Monday. Previous to that though Romano had posted a 3.38 ERA over his other started this year. Also note that Romano’s speed is almost unmatched in the league, as he was consistently hitting 95 MPH in the setback. Gray (4-6, 5.34) was rocked for five runs over 3.2 innings in a loss to San Francisco as well in his latest outing. Gray has now been shelled for five or more runs in five of his ten starts and note that he’s been particularly horrible at home all year with a 2-3, 6.04 ERA record. We like Romano to out duel Gray. Great value, play on the REDS. AAA Sports |
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05-25-18 | Braves +173 v. Red Sox | 2-6 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 43 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Atlanta Braves. We think the hard-hitting Braves and Julio Teheran offer excellent value in this underdog role. Teheran (4-1, 4.17 ERA) posted an unsustainable 1.24 ERA and 0.86 WHIP with 30 strikeouts over 29 innings, before then coming back down to Earth by allowing ten earned runs over his last 11 innings of work. Teheran has to be feeling confident in this spot though as note that he’s a super 3-1 with a 2.89 ERA on the road thus far. The home side counters with Eduardo Rodriguez (4-1, 4.13) who gave up no runs off nine hits while striking out seven over 5.2 innings Sunday to earn a victory over Baltimore. Rodriguez has for the most part been sharp this year, we will however point out that he has a rather pedestrian 4.76 ERA in front of the home town crowd this year. We think that Teheran can easily match pace with Rodriguez inning for inning and in a situation like that, we absolutely believe that the value swings to the underdog. Play on the BRAVES. AAA Sports |
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05-25-18 | Blue Jays v. Phillies -127 | 6-5 | Loss | -127 | 21 h 23 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL PITCHING MISMATCH on the Philadelphia Phillies. We think this interleague matchup favors the home side. The visitors hand the ball to Sam Gaviglio (1-0, 0.93 ERA) who looked pretty good in his first start of the year, going 5.1 scoreless against the A’s, allowing six hits and striking out six in a no-decision on Saturday. Last year Gaviglio was 4-5 with 4.36 ERA for KC, including just 2-3 with a 5.40 ERA on the road. The home side counters with Zack Eflin (1-0, 1.56) who gave up two earned runs over 4.2 innings in a no-decision to the Cards on Saturday, allowing three hits while also striking out four. Eflin’s numbers continue to impress, now a 1.56 ERA and 0.92 WHIP over 17.1 innings thus far. The book is still out on Gaviglio in our opinion, while Eflin shows no signs at all in slowing down. This line could/should easily be a lot larger. Play on the PHILLIES. AAA Sports |
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05-25-18 | Angels +201 v. Yankees | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 38 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the LA Angels. Luis Severino has been awesome for the Yankees so far this year, but we think that Andrew Heaney is being undervalued in this spot as we think the southpaw can match his surging counterpart inning for inning. Heaney (2-3, 3.35 ERA) most recently allowed four runs (none earned) off three hits and five walks with five strikeouts in a loss to Tampa Bay on Saturday. Heaney hasn’t been perfect, but his 10.5 K/9 and 57.1 percent ground ball rate over 40.1 innings of work suggests that his early strong numbers are sustainable moving forward. Severino (7-1, 2.35) gave up three earned runs off eight hits while walking two and striking out six over six innings in a victory over the Royals on Saturday. Note though that Severino would aloo ten base runners to reach. The Yanks are 31-15 this year, while LA is 27-22. As mentioned off the top, we think there’s great value on the hungry visiting side, as we look for Heaney to match pace with Severino inning for inning. Play on the ANGELS. AAA Sports |
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05-25-18 | Giants v. Cubs -203 | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 17 h 17 m | Show | |
This is a 6* MEMBER ONLY PLAY on the Chicago Cubs. We have no issues pulling the trigger on a higher-priced fav if we think it’ll lay the hammer down from start to finish. And that’s exactly the case here. The visitors turn to the erratic Derek Holland (2-5, 4.94 ERA) who most recently allowed four earned runs off six hits over six innings to the Rockies on Friday. Holland has respectable numbers, but we think that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time here. The home side sends Kyle Hendricks (3-3, 3.40) who gave up four runs (three earned) off six hits while striking out six over five innings in a no-decision against Cincinnati on Saturday. Hendricks was 7-5 with a 3.03 ERA last year and it would appear that he’s on pace to at least match those respectable numbers (also note that Hendricks owns a superb 2.60 ERA at home thus far this season.) Also note that San Fran is just 1-4 (-1.5 units) this season as a road dog in the +175 to +250 range, while Chicago is just 8-3 (+2 units) at home fav in the -175 to -250 range. For all the reasons listed above, play on the CUBS. AAA Sports |
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05-24-18 | Astros v. Indians +119 | Top | 8-2 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOP DOG OF THE DAY on the Cleveland Indians. Charlie Morton (6-0, 1.94 ERA) has so far been superb, but we think that regression is imminent. Morton most recently held these very Indians to one run off four hits with eight strikeouts over seven innings in the victory last Friday. The home side counters with Mike Clevinger (3-1, 2.87) who threw opposite Morton last week, giving up three runs off eight hits with six strikeouts over 6.1 innings. Despite the setback, it was still Clevinger’s fourth straight quality outing. Note though that Houston is already 0-2 (-2.4 units) this year on the road when the money line in the contest is set between +125 and -125, while Cleveland is 21-17 (+2.8 units) at home when the money line is in the same range. We’re banking on Clevinger and the INDIANS to get a little redemption tonight and for Morton to finally break down after his unsustainable start. Play on Cleveland. AAA Sports |
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05-23-18 | Royals v. Cardinals -188 | 5-2 | Loss | -188 | 19 h 41 m | Show | |
This is a 6* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the St. Louis Cardinals. The visitors hand the ball to Jake Junis (5-3, 3.51 ERA) who comes in off a win against the Yanks on Friday, giving up two earned runs off seven hits over 5.1 innings on Friday. Junis has been solid overall this year, but note that he’s already served up 11 dingers in nine starts thus far. The home side counters with ace Michael Wacha (5-1, 3.08) who gave up two earned runs off five hits over six innings while striking out eight in a 12-4 win over Philadelphia on Friday. Unlike his counterpart today, Wacha has been extremely solid in not giving up too many long-balls, just three over his first nine starts. This is a difficult matchup for Junis, as the interleague rules will require him to bat as well and we think that’s going to be enough to throw him off his game this afternoon. Lay the price with confidence, play on the CARDINALS. AAA Sports |
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05-22-18 | Pirates -130 v. Reds | 2-7 | Loss | -130 | 23 h 43 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Pittsburgh Pirates. We’ve played on Harvey in each of his first two starts for his new team and while he’s looked decent to this point, we believe that a letdown is imminent here. The visitors turn to Jameson Taillon (2-3, 3.97) who comes in off a no-decision to the White Sox on Wednesday, allowing two runs off five hits and three walks over 5.2 innings while striking out five. Harvey (0-2, 6.17) gave up three runs off seven hits while striking out five over four innings in a no-decision against the Giants on Wednesday. Harvey has been inconsistent at best for the Reds (allowed four extra base hits including a homer last time out) and as mentioned off the top, all signs point to a predictable letdown here. This one favors Taillon and the surging PIRATES. Lay the price. AAA Sports |
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05-22-18 | Red Sox -209 v. Rays | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 22 h 38 m | Show | |
This is a 6* play on the Boston Red Sox. We feel that the massive talent discrepancy on the mound absolutely justifies in laying this larger price. The hard-hitting visiting side hands the ball to ace Chris Sale (4-1, 2.29 ERA) who gave up two runs off two hits and four walks with nine strikeout over five innings in a victory over the A’s on Wednesday. Over his last six starts Sale has posted a 3.07 ERA and 56:10 K:BB over 41 innings of work. The Rays counter with the erratic Jake Faria (3-2, 5.20) who gave up three runs off four hits and four walks while striking out two over 4.1 innings in a victory over KC on Wednesday, lucky to earn a no-decision. So far Faria sports a pedestrian 35:21 K:BB on the year and all signs point to another difficult outing here against the Red Sox powerful line-up. No need to overthink this one. We expect Sale to come in focused and to take full advantage of this favorable matchup. Play on the RED SOX. AAA Sports |
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05-22-18 | Braves +1.5 v. Phillies | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 22 h 34 m | Show | |
This is a 6* play on the Braves on the RUN-LINE. Vince Velasquez has looked better after a disastrous start to the 2018 campaign, but we think the “safe” call in this one is to lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. The visitors turn to Brandon McCarthy (4-2, 5.05 ERA) who struck out eight and gave up one run off five hits over six innings in a no-decision against the hard-hitting Cubs on Wednesday. Velasquez (4-4, 4.37) went 6.1 scoreless innings against the Cards on Thursday. Note though that it was the first time in five starts that Velasquez did not give up a home run. We think Velasquez finally has a predictable letdown here, while McCarthy looks poised to build off his recent decent performance. Lay the price, play on the BRAVES on the RUN-LINE. AAA Sports |
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05-21-18 | Braves v. Phillies UNDER 9 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 24 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK is on the UNDER Braves/Phillies. We expect these competent pitchers to battle into the latter frames and for this total to sneak below the posted number once it’s all said and done. The visitors turn to Mike Foltynewicz (3-2, 2.87 ERA) who comes in off a gem against the Cubs on Tuesday, giving up one run off three hits over five innings to go along with ten strikeouts. To go along with his solid ERA, the 26 year old also own an elite 10.9 K/9. The home side goes with Nick Pivetta (3-2, 3.72) who gave up one run off two hits and a walk over seven frames while striking out 11 in a victory over Baltimore on Wednesday. Pivetta comes in on top form, as he’d generate 23 swinging strikes in the win. Note that the right-hander has been especially tough at home on opposing teams with a 2-1, 2.48 ERA record. This battle just screams “pitchers duel.” This number is a little high, play the UNDER. AAA Sports |
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05-20-18 | Diamondbacks v. Mets -180 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 18 h 23 m | Show | |
This is a 6* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the New York Mets. We believe that the massive talent discrepancy on the mound makes the price of admission on this one well worth it. The visitors hand the ball to Clay Buchholz (0-0, 0.00) who signed a minor-league deal with the D-Backs in May. Buchholz has looked decent over five starts between Double and Triple A, posting a 2.93 ERA and 1.23 WHIP over 27.2 innings. Buchholz is being pressed into service out of necessity with Robbie Ray still sidelined with injury. In his limited action with the Royals last year, Buchholz posted a 7.20 ERA on the road. The home side goes with ace Noah Syndergaard (3-1, 3.14) who gave up two runs off five hits and two walks over five innings in a victory over Toronto on Tuesday, also going on to strike out seven. Thor still hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in a start since his disastrous opener. Note that he’s 2-1 with a 3.62 ERA at home. Every game in a series has to be looked at “separately” from each other, as for the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching. We’ve taken a long hard look at both of these starters and we don’t anticipate any sort of a letdown here from Syndergaard, rather we expect him to take full advantage of this favorable matchup. Lay the price, play on the METS. AAA Sports |
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05-19-18 | Diamondbacks -120 v. Mets | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -120 | 21 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on the Arizona Diamondbacks. After yesterday’s 3-1 loss (we had the D-Backs unfortunately in that one), we think the hungry visitors will find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Arizona hands the ball to Patrick Corbin (4-1, 2.53 ERA) who comes in off his first loss of the 2018 campaign after allowing four runs off six hits to the Brewers on Monday. Corbin though would post eight K’s and we think the hard-throwing southpaw will return to form here. The home side counters with the erratic Stephen Matz (1-3, 3.86) who received a no-decision against the Phillies on Friday, allowing one run off vie hits over five innings. Matz looked terrible and he’s lucky to have gotten off the hook, as he’d go on to walk more batters than he struck out. Note that Arizona is 11-6 (+7 units) on the road this year, while New York is still just 8-11 (-6.8 units) at home. We think Corbin cruises and Matz gets the hook early. All things considered, a very fair price. Play on the DIAMONDBACKS. AAA Sports |
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05-19-18 | Marlins v. Braves -188 | 1-8 | Win | 100 | 1 h 11 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Atlanta Braves. We had a play on the Marlins yesterday and Dan Straily would take advantage of a late pitching change by the home side to post another victory. But we think the Braves will bounce back here in this favorable matchup. The visitors turn to Jose Urena (0-6, 4.38 ERA) who gave up three earned runs off four hits over six innings in a loss to these very Braves last Sunday. Urena has been unfortunate this year, as he’s pitched a lot better than what his win/loss record would indicate, but that said he’s still a horrible 0-0 with a 6.10 ERA on the road thus far. The home side counters with Sean Newcomb (4-1, 2.51) who gave up one hit and four walks while striking out six over six scoreless innings in a win over these very Marlins throwing opposite Urena last weekend. Newcomb hasn’t been perfect this season, but his peripherals (.6 HR/9) suggest that his numbers are no fluke. Note that he’s been better on the road than at home, but he’s still a sharp 2-1 with a 2.70 ERA in all “night” contests thus far. We think that Newcomb will easily outlast his erratic counterpart as all signs point to a blowout. Play on the BRAVES. AAA Sports |
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05-18-18 | Marlins +166 v. Braves | 2-0 | Win | 166 | 2 h 57 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Miami Marlins. Sean Newcomb has been very good in the early going, but we think regression is imminent. And while Dan Straily has yet to hit his stride, we think he can match pace with his younger counterpart this evening. Straily (1-0, 5.54 ERA) gave up three runs (two earned) off three hits over five innings while also striking out five in a victory over these very Braves on Friday. Straily’s last start was skipped over due to a rain-out, so the veteran will be extra rested here to face Newcomb (4-1, 2.51) who gave up one hit and four walks over six innings to earn a victory over these very Marlins on Sunday. Newcomb’s peripherals suggest that regression is on the horizon, as his 4.2 BB/9 definitely leaves something to be desired. We think the door is wide open for Straily here to get the better of his over-priced opponent. Play on the MARLINS. UPDATE: There has been a late pitching change and Newcomb is out for the Braves and Matt Wisler is in. NOTE THIS PLAY IS STILL ACTIVE: Wisler (1-0, 3.75) was recalled from Triple-A Gwinnett to make this start. Over two starts for the Braves this year he’s allowed five runs over 12 innings and over 310 career innings in the big leagues, he’s posted an uninspiring 5.20 ERA. The door is now wide open for Straily to take advantage. PLAY STILL ACTIVE. AAA Sports |
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05-18-18 | Diamondbacks +146 v. Mets | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 4 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Arizona Diamondbacks. We feel that Zack Godley and the hard-hitting visiting side have much more than just a “punchers chance” in this one. Godley (4-2, 4.08) was lucky to earn a no-decision in his last start after giving up three solo home runs and four runs overall off seven hits and one walk with six K’s over 6.1 innings. Outings like that happen to even the best and we aren’t overly concerned with the three-home runs given up, as Godley had given up only three over his previous 40 innings of work. Note that Godley is 4-1 with a 3.40 ERA in all “night” games this season. The home side goes with ace Jacob DeGrom (3-0, 1.83) who was lifted from his previous start after just one inning, as he’d give up three walks after having to go through a one hour rain delay just before game time. DeGrom didn’t suffer any setbacks, but the delay clearly caused the hard-throwing right-hander some issues. It’s hard to say anything negative about DeGrom, we simply feel that Godley is going to be able to easily match him inning for inning. And in a situation like that, the value swings to the hungry dog. Play on the DIAMONDBACKS. AAA Sports |
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05-17-18 | Padres v. Pirates -160 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 24 h 45 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Pittsburgh Pirates. We think the Pirates build off their 3-2 win yesterday, while we expect the Padres to stumble in the opener of this three game set. The visitors hand the ball to the erratic Eric Lauer (1-2, 8.27 ERA) who after a strong outing against the Dodgers in his previous outing which saw him give up no runs over six frames, would predictably come back down to Earth again in a loss to the Cards on Friday, getting wheeled for six runs off seven hits with no K’s over 2.1 innings. To go along with his atrocious 8.27 ERA, Lauer also sports a horrible 2.14 WHIP. The home side goes with Chad Kuhl (4-2, 4.17) who comes in off an unfortunate no-decision against the Giants on Saturday, allowing three runs off six hits and four walks over six innings while striking out six. Kuhl hasn’t been perfect this year, but his 42:16 K:BB over 45.1 innings of work is impressive and note that he’s so far been at his best at home this season with a very respectable 2-0, 3.52 ERA record as well. We feel that this line could/should be a lot larger considering the massive talent discrepancy on the mound. Lay the price, play on the PIRATES. AAA Sports |
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05-16-18 | A's v. Red Sox UNDER 8.5 | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BIG TIGER on the UNDER between the A’s/Red Sox. We’re expecting these veteran hurlers to battle into the latter frames and for this total to ultimately fall under the number once it’s all said and done. The A’s turn to Trevor Cahill (1-1, 2.25 ERA) who comes off the DL after a sore elbow issue. Cahill has been given the green light tonight and so far over his first 24 innings for Oakland this year he’s posted the 2.25 ERA to go along with a sharp 0.96 WHIP and 31:6 K:BB. Boston sends ace Chris Sale (3-1, 2.17) to the hill and he most recently struck out 15 in a no-decision against the Jays on Friday, ultimately allowing three runs over nine innings of work. 85 of his 116 pitches went for strikes and he’d go on to post an enormous 26 swinging strikes. As mentioned off the top, we’re expecting these two competent starters to battle deep and for this total to fall UNDER at the end of the night. AAA Sports |
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05-16-18 | Reds +1.5 v. Giants | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 21 h 47 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL ASSASSIN on the REDS on the RUN-LINE. The Reds recently lost the services of slugger Joey Votto, but MLB handicapping for the most part comes down to the starting pitching. While neither of these starters instills much confidence, we think that Matt Harvey can at the very least match his erratic counterpart tonight inning for inning. So in a contest which we envision being decided late or even in extra frames, we think that laying the mid sized price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance is definitely the way to go in this one. Harvey (0-2, 6.10 ERA) struck out two, walked none and gave up a single hit in a no-decision over four innings in his debut for his new team. On two occasions Harvey’s fast-ball reached 96 MPH and he’d retire 12 of 13 batters overall. A motivated/focused Harvey gets ready to battle the Giants’ Andrew Suarez (1-2, 4.57) who gave up five runs off seven hits over four innings in a loss to the Pirates on Friday. Suarez has a poor ERA, supported by his sub-par 2.1 HR/9 over his first 21.2 big-league innings. For all the reasons listed above, play on the REDS on the RUN-LINE. AAA Sports |
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05-15-18 | Blue Jays v. Mets -172 | 2-12 | Win | 100 | 19 h 24 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION is on the New York Mets. We think that the massive talent discrepancy on the mound absolutely justifies in laying this larger price. The visitors turn to Jaime Garcia (2-2, 5.40 ERA) who gave up two runs off three hits and five walks over five innings in a no-decision against the Mariners on Wednesday. Garcia has been serviceable at best for Toronto this season, not able to go farther than 5.1 innings since his debut (note that Garcia has been particularly feeble on the road as well by going just 1-1 with a ballooned 8.36 ERA.) The home side sends ace Noah Syndergaard (2-1, 3.09) to counter and he most recently gave up two earned runs off six hits while striking out six over six innings in a no-decision to the Rockies on Sunday. Syndergaard’s last start was missed due to postponement, but he comes in with a solid 3.09 ERA and 1.20 WHIP over 46.2 innings of work (note that he’s been sharp at home with a 1-1, 3.62 ERA record.) We think Syndergaard easily outlast his erratic counterpart. Lay the price, play on the METS. AAA Sports |
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05-14-18 | Reds v. Giants -140 | Top | 7-10 | Win | 100 | 28 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the San Francisco Giants. The Reds are coming off a series victory over the Dodgers, but we think they’ll stumble at The Bay. The visitors turn to Sal Romano (2-3, 3.83 ERA) who gave up one run off four hits over six innings in an unfortunate no-decision against the Mets on Wednesday. Romano has looked better after a poor start, but his 5.3 K/9 over 42.1 innings of work clearly leaves something to be desired. The home side hands the ball to Chris Stratton (3-3, 4.60) who enters off an outing to forget against the Phillies on Wednesday, allowing five runs off five hits over 4.2 innings of work. Stratton got off to a solid start to the season, so he’ll now be eager to return to form after back-to-back shaky performances. Note though that Stratton has been at his best in all “night” games, going 3-2 with a 3.44 ERA. We like Stratton to get back on track in front of the home town crowd and for the surging Reds to finally have a letdown. Play on the GIANTS. AAA Sports |
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05-13-18 | Nationals v. Diamondbacks -119 | 6-4 | Loss | -119 | 25 h 27 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Arizona Diamondbacks. We think that Jeremy Hellickson is getting too much respect in this spot. Hellickson (1-0, 2.28 ERA) most recently struck out eight and walks zero over 6.2 scoreless innings against the toothless Padres on Tuesday. Hellickson has looked great in back-to-back gems, but regression is imminent in our opinion, as note that he was just 5-7 with a 5.08 ERA on the road last year. The home side turns to Zach Godley (4-2, 3.83) who comes in off an outing to forget, giving up four runs off six hits over 5.2 innings in a no-decision on Tuesday. Note that he’s been much better at home (2-1, 1.96) than on the road (2-1, 5.40) already this year. We’re giving Godley the big nod in this matchup, as all signs point to Hellickson finally coming back down to Earth tonight. Play on ARIZONA. AAA Sports |
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05-12-18 | Reds v. Dodgers -181 | 5-3 | Loss | -181 | 24 h 23 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the LA Dodgers. We feel that this line could/should easily be a lot larger. The visitors hand the ball to the erratic Homer Bailey (0-5, 5.61 ERA) who most recently was shelled for six runs off eight hits over four innings against the Mets on Monday. Bailey started the year promisingly, but he’s since fallen off by allowing 18 earned runs over his last 19.2 innings of work. The home side counters with Ross Stripling (0-1, 1.93) who most recently went four scoreless against the Padres on Sunday before being pulled for flu like symptoms. Suffice it to say, we think that Stripling builds off his latest performance. All signs point to a blowout, so lay the price with confidence. Play on the DODGERS. AAA Sports |
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05-12-18 | Brewers v. Rockies -126 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 3 h 34 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Colorado Rockies. Chase Anderson (3-3, 3.97 ERA) gets the nod for the visitors and he most recently was shelled for five runs off five hits while walking and striking out two over 5.1 innings in a loss to the Pirates on Sunday. Anderson has been plagued by the long-ball this year as he’s now given up at least one home run in six of his eight starts this season. And that clearly doesn’t bode well in having to throw at hitter friendly Coors Park. The home side goes with Kyle Freeland (2-4, 3.95) who comes in off a third straight strong start, allowing two earned runs over seven innings, striking out eight and walking just one against the Mets on Sunday. Over his last 21 innings of work Freeland has posted an elite 21:K K:BB and we believe the hard-throwing southpaw carries that momentum over here. All signs point to another long-night for Anderson. Play on COLORADO. NOTE: There has been a pitching change for the Brewers, as Anderson is out and Brian Suter is in. THIS PLAY IS STILL ACTIVE. Suter (2-2, 4.86 ERA) will be throwing on only three days rest. To go along with his pedestrian ERA, Suter also sports a poor 17.3 percent strikeout rate. PLAY STILL LIVE! AAA Sports |
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