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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-27-23 | Dodgers v. Pirates UNDER 8 | Top | 2-6 | Push | 0 | 5 h 12 m | Show |
10* UNDER Dodgers/Pirates (EARLY) Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but we expect those trends to end here this afternoon. The Dodgers have seen the total go "over" in five straight after yesterday's 8-1 loss. Note though that LA has seen the total go "under" the number in four of its last five after playing to five or more straight "overs" in a row. Previous to this series with the Dodgers, the surging Pirates, who have now won eight of their last nine, had seen the total go "under" in four straight. Julio Urias is 3-2 with a 3.33 ERA for LA, while Mitch Keller is 2-0 with a 3.64 ERA for Pittsburgh. Look for these competent starters to battle deep and expect this total to stay "under" the posted number once it's all said and done! AAA Sports |
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04-23-23 | Marlins v. Guardians OVER 7.5 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 105 | 6 h 23 m | Show |
10* Marlins/Guardians OVER (ASSASSIN) Both teams have been playing to several lower-scoring games of late, but we expect those trends to end this eveing. Miami has seen the total go "under" in nine straight games, while Cleveland has seen the total go "under" in six straight. Cleveland has lost the first two games of this contest by scores of 6-1 and 3-2. Note though that the Guardians have seen the total go "over" the number in eight of their last ten in trying to avenge two or more straight losses against an opponent. The fact that these teams have played to so many "unders" of late has also helped in driving this particular total here today a couple points lower than it normally would/should be; because of that, the play is the "over!" AAA Sports |
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04-12-23 | Royals v. Rangers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 10-1 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
10* UNDER (ASSASSIN) Off three straight victories, the Rangers will look to keep things rolling here against the Royals. Texas has seen the total go "over" the number in four straight, which is significant to note as the Rangers have in fact seen the total "under" the posted number in seven of their last ten after playing to three or more straight "overs" in a row. KC enters off three straight losses, which is also important to take note of here, as the Royals have seen the total go "under" the number in eight of their last 12 after three or more straight losses in a row. Brad Keller is 1-1 with a 2.61 ERA for the Royals, while Nate Eovaldi is 1-1 with a 4.22 ERA for the Rangers. Look for these competent starting hurlers to be the main storyline in tomorrow's summaries of this contest; this number is high, the play is the "under!" AAA Sports |
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04-02-23 | Phillies v. Rangers UNDER 9 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
10* UNDER Phillies/Rangers (IL TOM) A great common sense play here. Philadelphia's starting pitching and bullpen has so far been terrible over the first two games of this series, losing 11-7 and 16-3 yesterday. The Phillies are without several of their top/key sluggers as well still for a few weeks. The Rangers line-up has exploded, but for this final IL game to start the season, I believe the value has now swung the other way as far as the total is concerned. The Phillies hand the ball to Bailey Falter, who was 6-4 with a 3.86 ERA last season. He'll be opposed by Martin Perez, who was 12-8 with a 2.89 ERA last year. Look for these quality starters to battle deep, and expect this total to stay well "under" the posted number! AAA Sports |
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04-02-23 | Orioles v. Red Sox UNDER 9.5 | Top | 5-9 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 57 m | Show |
10* UNDER Orioles/Red Sox. I am rushing a bit here this morning to get my analysis done, as I am about to catch a flight. Regardless, after the first two games of this series have flown well "over" the number, I'm expecting more of a "duel" here finally in the finale. The Orioles hand the ball to Cole Irvin, who was 9-13 with a 3.98 ERA in 30 starts for the A's last year. In nine career innints vs. Boston, he has no decisions and a 2.00 ERA. The home side counters with Tanner Houck, who allowed three earned runs or fewer in 31 of his 32 outings last year, including all four starts. The value has now swung the other way as far as the total is concerned in this one, so the play is the indeed on the "under!" AAA Sports |
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03-30-23 | Braves v. Nationals OVER 8 | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 25 h 1 m | Show | |
8* play on the OVER Braves/Nationals. This pick is based primarily around the fact that I expect the Braves to smash Corbin here. Corbin was 6-19 with a 6.31 ERA in 2022 and I say he's in for a rough start here vs. Atlanta. Max Fried gets the opening night nod for the Braves, and he was 14-7 with a 2.48 ERA last year. Note though, while he's 4-1 in games at Washington, his ERA balloons to an unsightly 5.70 in those contests (meaning that his team has provided him with ample support each time.) Look for this total to fly "over" the number sooner, rather than later! AAA Sports |
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11-05-22 | Phillies v. Astros OVER 6.5 | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
10* OVER Phillies/Astros. Streaks and records come to an end at some point. Both of these starters has been exceptional up to this point, but now on the biggest stage, I'm expecting some minor regression from both. Zach Wheeler is 1-2 with a 2.67 ERA and 0.73 WHIP for the Phillies so far in the Playoffs, while his counterpart Framber Valdez has been even better at 2-0 with a 1.42 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. I just think we're going to see a lot of aggressive offensive tactics from both sides here today, especially obviously from the Phillies. I say this O/U line is now just a bit TOO low. Look for these unbelievable offenses to finally crack these starters and look for this total to eclipse the posted number sooner, rather than later! AAA Sports |
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10-29-22 | Phillies v. Astros UNDER 7 | Top | 2-5 | Push | 0 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
10* UNDER (ASSASSIN) I had a play on the Phillies on the runline in Game 1. While Game 1 flew well "over" the posted number of 6.5, I believe we'll see a much tigher, and ultimately lower-scoring "duel" here in Game 2. Zach Wheeler is 1-1 with a 1.78 ERA and 0.51 WHIP so far in the playoffs for the Phillies, while Framber Valdez is 1-0 with a 1.42 ERA for the Astros. Terrible starts for both starters yesterday, but let's not assume that these two red-hot starters here on Saturday will follow suit. Expect these two "studs" to battle into the latter frames as each sides leans on their starter today, and look for this total to stay "under" the number once it's all said and done! AAA Sports |
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10-12-22 | Padres v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -120 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
10* UNDER (NLDS TOY) Yesterday's total flew "over" the number, but I'm expecting more of a "duel" here on Wednesday. The Padres look to bounce back and hand the ball to Yu Darvish, who is 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA in the playoffs so far. He was 16-8 with a 3.10 ERA in the regular season. Darvish faces his old team with a chip on his shoulder. In four starts against them this year he went 1-2 with a 2.50 ERA spanning 25 innings. The home side counters with Clayton Kershaw, who was 12-3 with a 2.28 ERA in the regular season. Over two starts this year vs. the Friars he went 1-0 with a 0.75 ERA. Look for these two stud starters to battle deep and expect this total to stay well "under" the posted number! AAA Sports |
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10-11-22 | Padres v. Dodgers OVER 7 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 30 h 49 m | Show | |
8* OVER (SUPER TOTAL) I'm expecting some offensive fireworks here to open things up. Well, I think this total will eclipse this very low number anyways. The Padres managed to get by the Mets in three games and now they turn to Mike Clevingers, the fourth man in their rotation. Clevinger was 7-7 with a 4.33 ERA, including just 4-4 with a 5.48 ERA on the road. It's difficult to find any flaws in the Dodgers' Clayton Kershaw, who was 12-3 with a 2.88 ERA this season and who has a plethora of knowledge and experience to draw upon in this game and series. San Diego plated 16 runs vs. the Mets though, and I think they'll be able to get a few here in Game 1 as well. This number is a little low in my estimation, the play is the "over!" AAA Sports |
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10-09-22 | Padres v. Mets UNDER 6.5 | Top | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
10* UNDER Padres/Mets (NL TOW) The first two games of this series have flown "over" the posted number, but I expect the finale to be a much tighter, lower-scoring "duel" once it's all said and done. The Padres go with Joe Musgrove, who 10-7 with a 2.93 ERA overall and who was 7-3 with a 3.03 ERA on the road. He'll be opposed by the Mets' Chris Bassitt, who finished 15-9 with a 3.42 ERA overall and who was 6-6 with a 2.96 ERA at home. Funny enough, each has been rocked by their respective opponent in the past. Bassitt is 0-2 with a 6.60 ERA in three career starts vs. San Diego, while Musgrove is 1-5 with a 5.83 ERA in six games vs. New York. But that's a case of that was then, and this is now. These starters enter on top form and I expect them to garner most of the headlines in tomorrow's summaries of this contest; this number is high, the play is the under! AAA Sports |
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10-07-22 | Rays v. Guardians OVER 6.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 28 h 35 m | Show |
10* OVER Rays/Guardians (AL TOW) We have two really good starting pitchers going head-to-head here with Shane McClanahan getting the start for the Rays and Shane Bieber getting the nod for the Guardians. The oddsmakers want us to believe that these starters will battle deep into this one, and then these competent bullpens will take over. Tampa averaged 4.11 RPG, while Cleveland averaged 4.31. I'm not buying into this super low total though, despite the level of talent between these starting pitchers. I expect each of these sides to hit their seasonal offensive average and that means that the correct call in Game 1 is indeed on the "over!" AAA Sports |
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09-29-22 | Phillies v. Cubs OVER 7.5 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -120 | 6 h 17 m | Show |
10* OVER Phillies/Cubs (NL TOY) The Phillies are desperate to snap a four-game slide. They're coming off back-to-back losses here in Chicago, falling 2-1 and 4-2. Suffice it to say I'm expecting some fireworks here this afternoon at the plate finally (note that Philly has in fact seen the total go OVER the number in eight of its last 11 in trying to avenge B2B road losses against an opponent.) Ranger Suarez is 10-5 with a 3.38 ERA for Phillies, while Javier Assad is 1-2 with a 4.28 ERA for the Cubs. "We have to get going," Philadelphia slugger Bryce Harper said last night. "We can't keep saying that, right? We have to actually do it. As a team, as a club, we've got to be better." Both starters have been decent, but this is just a case of each being in the wrong place at the wrong time this afternoon. The overall situation points to this total eclipsing the posted number sooner, rather than later; the play is the over! AAA Sports |
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09-10-22 | Cardinals v. Pirates UNDER 8 | Top | 7-5 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
10* TOY ON CARDINALS/PIRATES UNDER Flaherty allowed 1 run last start. The game finished with 6 runs. Brubaker allowed 2 runs last start. The game finished with 7 runs. Brubaker faced the Cardinals in June. The final score was 3-1. Early reports show that the wind is likely to be blowing in. Understand that the Pirates score fewer runs than any other National League team. As a team, they hit .219. Go with the Under! AAA Sports |
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09-07-22 | Giants v. Dodgers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 25 m | Show |
10* GETAWAY DAY TOW ON SF/LA UNDER Cobb and Kershaw had a high-scoring game against each other in July. Both starters were strong last start though and runs will be harder to come by in this afternoon's rematch. Kershaw allowed 1 run, on only 1 hit, last start. Cobb allowed 0 runs, on only 3 hits, in his most recent start. That's consecutive shutouts for Cobb and he has now permitted 3 or fewer earned runs in 7 straight. Under was 5-2 in those games. Go with the Under! AAA Sports |
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09-05-22 | Giants v. Dodgers UNDER 8 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
10* NL West TOY on SF/LA Under If you like quality pitching, you should enjoy this game. Webb's last four starts all were unders. Scores of 2-0, 5-0, 6-1 and 4-3. He allowed 1 run last start and it was unearned. Heaney has a 1.05 ERA in five home starts. In his last three starts he has 28 strikeouts in 15.2 innings. Twelve starts in a row for Heaney where he has allowed 3 or less earned runs. Make it 5 straight unders for Webb! AAA Sports |
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08-09-22 | Rangers v. Astros UNDER 8 | Top | 5-7 | Loss | -119 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
10* UNDER Rangers/Astros (ASSASSIN) What do you base your Over/Under picks on? Do you simply look at the offensive and defensive averages of each side, then make an educated guess based on the line, or do you delve a little deeper? From a situational stand-point, I think this one sets up super well for a lower-scoring "duel." Both teams have played A LOT recently, and each finally had the day off yesterday (the Astros had to play 19 games over 18 days, while the Rangers also played 18 consecutive games before having Monday off.) More than anything though, both these starting pitchers have been "on point' and enter on top form. The Rangers' Martin Perez is 9-2 with a 2.47 ERA this year. He's 2-0 with a 1.44 ERA over his last 4 starts and he's 1-0 with a 0.56 ERA in in two starts vs. the Astros this year. His counterpart Jose Urquidy is 10-4 with a 3.62 ERA this year overall and 5-1 with a 2.29 ERA over his last nine starts, and 4-0 with a 2.04 ERA in 6 career outings against Texas. No need to overthink this one; this one has "duel" written all over it, so the play is the under! AAA Sports |
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07-06-22 | Blue Jays v. A's OVER 8 | 2-1 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 39 m | Show | |
8* OVER (DESTRUCTION) The Jays have lost 5 straight and they've seen the total go "under" the number in their last 2 losses here in Oakland, falling 5-1 and 5-3 respectively. The A's starting to hit the ball well and I look for that trend to continue here. The Jays aren't going to be held too much longer, and facing James Kaprielian presents an opportunity to get untracked. I don't trust either of these starting pitchers, and while this series has been lower-scoring so far, everything points to a classic "slug-fest" here on Wednesday night finally in my opinion. The Jays hand the ball to the volatile Jose Berrios, who is 6-4 with a 5.72 ERA (benefitting from the Jays' big bats), while Kaprielian is just 1-5 with a 5.43 ERA for the A's. Expect this total to fly OVER the number in the latter frames! AAA Sports |
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05-24-22 | Royals v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8.5 | Top | 6-8 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 9 m | Show |
10* UNDER (ART OF WAR) These teams have sure been playing to several high-scoring affairs of late, but all signs finally point to a "duel" here on Tuesday night. The Royals go with Jonathan Heasley, who is 0-2 with a 4.32 ERA. He's been better than his win/loss record would indicate. And then Zac Gallen has been a bright spot all year for the D-Backs, as he's 3-0 with a tiny 1.14 ERA. As I said off the top, this one has all the making of a classic "pitchers duel;" the play is the "under!" AAA Sports |
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05-23-22 | Guardians v. Astros OVER 8.5 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 45 m | Show |
10* OVER (BOB) These teams have been playing to several lower-scoring "unders" of late, but I expect those trends to end in the opener of this three-game series. The Guardians are off a 4-2 loss to the Tigers, their 4th loss in their last 6 games. Zach Plesac is 1-3 with a 4.42 ERA for the Guardians this year, but he's 0-2 with a ballooned 6.86 ERA over his last 4 starts. Houston sees Luis Garcia toe the slab. He's 3-2 with a 3.35 ERA. Garcia took a step back in his last outing though, allowing 5 runs off 5 hits over 4 innings in a loss to Boston on Wednesday. Two teams in dire need of a victory here. Two starters who are on the decline. Look for this total to fly "over" the number sooner, rather than later. AAA Sports |
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05-22-22 | Mariners v. Red Sox UNDER 9.5 | Top | 4-8 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 41 m | Show |
10* UNDER (ASSASSIN) The first 3 games of this 4 game series have all flown well "over" the number, but on Sunday in the finale we can expect a classic "duel" finally. These teams are moving in opposite directions, but each is desperate for a victory here today. I really like Logan Gilbert here for Seattle and I think he'll settle the M's down here. He's 4-2 with a 2.40 ERA and 51 K's. Boston counters with Nathan Eovaldi, who is 1-2 with a 4.32 ERA. The totals on these games keep creeping higher and higher, and today's is now just too large. We'll go the other way here on the total in the fourth game, the play is the "under!" AAA Sports |
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05-21-22 | Reds v. Blue Jays OVER 8 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
10* OVER (IL TOY) Toronto has now seen the total go "under" the number in 6 straight after yesterday's tight 2-1 home win over the Reds. Suffice it to say, I'm expecting a much higher-scoring game here finally on Saturday (it's interesting to note that the Jays though have seen the total go "over" the number in 7 of their last 10 after playing to 5 or more straight "unders" in a row. The Reds have seen the total go "over" in 6 of their last 8 in trying to revenge a road loss against an opponent in which they were held to 1 or less runs in. Alek Manoah is 4-1 with a 1.71 ERA for the Jays. Regression is imminent in my opinion. Hunter Greene though is just 1-6 with a 6.21 ERA for the Reds. Look for these starters to get chased early and for this total to fly "over" the number sooner, rather than later! AAA Sports |
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05-14-22 | Phillies v. Dodgers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 8-3 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 20 m | Show |
10* UNDER (ASSASSIN) After 2 straight really high-scoring games to open this series, I'm expecting much more of a "duel" here on Saturday. Philadelphia has inexplicably taken the first 2 games, winning 9-7 and 12-10. The Dodgers have actually seen the total go "under" in 8 of their last 10 in trying to avenge 2 straight losses against an opponent. Ranger Suarez is 3-1 with a 3.68 ERA for the Phillies. He'll be opposed by Julio Urias, who is 2-2 with a 2.10 ERA. The numbers/trends point to a lower-scoring affair, and all signs point to a classic "duel" as well. This number is indeed a tad high now, so the play is the "under!" AAA Sports |
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05-10-22 | Brewers v. Reds UNDER 8 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
10* UNDER (DESTRUCTION) Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games leading into this one, but we can expect that direction to change tonight finally. Milwaukee has seen the total go "over" in 6 of its last 7 (including in yesterday's 10-5 defeat here.) The Brewers have lost 3 straight, and they've seen the total go "under" in 6 of their last 8 after three or more losses in a row. Cincinnati enters having seen the total go "over" in 8 straight. Let's not overreact to these starters early numbers. The home side goes with Hunter Greene, who is 1-4 with an 8.71 ERA. He gave up 5 home runs to the Brewers last Thursday. Greene is the Reds' top rookie prospect and I expect him to settle down here in the rematch. The Brewers go with Freddy Peralta, who is 1-1 with a 5.09 ERA so far this season. Peralta has to be feeling confident today though, as he's 3-2 with a 3.70 ERA in 15 career games vs. Cincinnati. All signs point to a lower-scoring "under" between these teams finally on Tuesday! AAA Sports |
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05-06-22 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 15 h 37 m | Show |
10* UNDER (ASSASSIN) Both teams have been playing to some higher-scoring games of late, but I think that'll change today with these two "stud" starters facing off in Arizona. The D-Backs had yesterday off, while the Rockies enter off a high-scoring 9-7 win at home over Washington. But as I mentioned off the start, I expect these two starters to steal most of the headlines in tomorrow's summaries of this contest. The Rockies go with Chad Kuhl, who is 3-0 with a 1.90 ERA. Merrill Kelly is 2-1 with a 1.27 ERA this season for the Diamondbacks. Interestingly, each has struggled against his respective opponent today in the past, but to that I say: that was then, and this is now! These two starters enter on top form and I expect that to help in driving this O/U number "under" the total once it's all said and done; the play is the "under!" AAA Sports |
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04-27-22 | Astros v. Rangers OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
10* OVER Astros/Rangers. While the first two games of this series have fallen "under" the number, all signs point to the "grudge match" being a much higher-scoring contest. Texas won 6-2 in the first game, while Houston bounced back in yesterday's 5-1 victory. Texas has now seen the total go "under" in four straight, which is significant to note in our case as the Rangers have seen the total go "over" in 9 of their last 12 after playing to 3 or more straight "overs" in a row. Christian Javier is 0-0 with a 0.00 ERA for the Astros (has made 3 relief appearances.) The Rangers see Glen Otto toe the slabe and he's 1-0 with a 1.80 ERA. These early sparkling numbers are unrealistic and unsustainable. Look for the regression to be swift for each. Considering all of the above information, this number is a little low in my opinion, the play is the OVER. AAA Sports |
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04-27-22 | Red Sox v. Blue Jays UNDER 9 | 7-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show | |
8* TOTAL on the UNDER Red Sox/Jays. These teams have played to a couple higher-scoring games to open this series, but I expect a lower-scoring "duel" here on Wednesday. The Red Sox go with Michael Wacha, and he's 1-0 with a 1.88 ERA so far this season. He'll be opposed by the Jays' Ross Stripling, who is 0-0 with a 4.50 ERA. Boston has also seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last ten in trying to avenge B2B losses against an opponent. This number is high, the play is the under! AAA Sports |
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04-26-22 | Padres v. Reds OVER 8 | 9-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show | |
8* OVER (SPECIAL) Two teams in need of a victory collide on Tuesday night and I'm expecting some runs to come across the plate. The Padres are 10-7 overall and out to snap a 2-game road losing streak. The Reds are 3-13. San Diego is off a 10-2 loss to the Angels, while the Reds are off a confidence-building 4-1 win over St. Louis. Joe Musgrove has been sharp for SD in the early going by going 2-0 with a 1.89 ERA, but I think regression is finally in store here. Reds' starter Reiver Sanmartin has struggled to open the season though, going 0-2 with a 7.11 ERA. The Reds are just 1-9 the L10 in this series, so they'll be motivated to snap that trend. The Reds allow 5.40 RPG at home and the Padres have averaged 5.33 RPG in their last 3 vs. Cincinnati. Expect these high-scoring trends to continue on Tuesday night; the play is the over! AAA Sports |
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04-24-22 | Dodgers v. Padres OVER 7 | 10-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 4 m | Show | |
8* OVER (SPECIAL) I think these starters are great, but the overall situation will lead to this total eclipsing the posted number by the latter frames. The Dodgers see Clayton Kershaw toe the slab and he's 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA. Sean Manea gets the call for the home side and he's 2-1 with a 1.42 ERA. These teams have been struggling to score, and these starters have opened up the season well. Those facts though have the public convinced that this will once again be a "pitchers duel." This perception though has driven this O/U line a little lower than I think it normally would be, and the value has now definitely swung the other way as far as the total is concerned. A great situtaional value play on the "over!" AAA Sports |
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04-23-22 | Dodgers v. Padres OVER 8 | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 31 m | Show | |
8* OVER (SPECIAL) LA is coming off a 6-1 win last night, but I expect a classic "slug-fest" on Saturday night. The Dodgers have won ten of their first 13 games. Freddie Freeman is hitting .346. Mookie Betts hit a two run shot last night. Tyler Andreson has been decent for LA, allowing 2 runs off 4 hits with 8 K's so far this season. San Diego won't be lacking for motivation obviously. It's actually seen the total go 7-2 to the over in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent in which it was held to 1 run or less. Yu Darvish counters for the home side, he's put up on horrible start, and one great one. Off a gem against the Braves, will this pattern continue? I say yes. This number is now a bit TOO low, the play is the "over!" AAA Sports |
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04-22-22 | Cardinals v. Reds OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
10* OVER (ASSASSIN) The Cardinals are 7-4 and the Reds are 2-11. The Reds only managed 5 hits in a 6-0 loss at the Padres on Wednesday, but Cinncy has seen the total go "over" the number in 8 of its last 10 after a shutout road loss. St. Louis is off a 5-0 road loss at Miami, after taking the first 2 games. The Cards though have seen the total go "over" the number in 6 of their last 8 off a shutout road loss. The Reds hand the ball to rookie Hunter Greene, who is 1-1 with a 4.35 ERA (allowed 3 homers in 10 1/3's innings so far), while the Cards go with Steve Matz, who is 1-1 with a 7.26 ERA after getting shelled for 7 runs over his first 8 2/3's innings of work. Considering all of the above information, the play is the OVER. AAA Sports |
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04-21-22 | Cardinals v. Marlins OVER 7.5 | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
10* OVER (ASSASSIN) The first 2 games of this series have been low-scoring, but I'm expecting some fireworks here tonight finally. The Cardinals have taken both games, winning 5-1 and 2-0 (that's important for us to note here though, as Miami has seen the total go "over" in 7 of its last 9 in trying to revenge a shutout home loss against an opponent.) Each starting pitcher has gotten out to a decent start to the 2022 season, but regression is in store for both in my estimation. St. Louis goes with Jordan Hicks, who is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA, working a total of 4 innings between 2 games. Pablo Lopez is 1-0 with a 0.87 ERA. He most recently blanked the Phillies over 5.1 innings in his most recent outing. I'll not read too much into either of these pitchers' early numbers. The value has now finally swung the other way; the play is the "over!" AAA Sports |
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04-20-22 | Yankees v. Tigers OVER 7.5 | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
10* OVER (AL TOTAL BOB) New York has been trading wins and losses over its last 8 games. It'll have to plate some runs here today if it want to avoid that patten, as the Yanks took the first game of this series by a score of 4-2 yesterday. The Yanks have seen the total go "under" in 5 straight, which is important for us to note here, as they've seen the total go "over" 6 of their last 8 after playing to 5 or more straight "unders" in a row. Detroit's seen the total go "under" in 4 straight. It's lost 2 straight. Luis Severino has been great for New York, he enters with a 1-0, 2.25 ERA. Regression seems imminent at some point though. And Eduardo Rodriguez has yet to find his footing for his new team, he enters with an 0-1, 5.87 ERA and 1.83 WHIP for the Tigers. For all the reasons listed above, the play is the OVER. AAA Sports |
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04-19-22 | Yankees v. Tigers OVER 8 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
10* OVER (TOP) The Yanks Gerrit Cole is vastly overrated. He's 0-0 with a 5.59 ERA. He most recently allowed 3 runs over 5 innings in a no-decision to Toronto. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hit 2 home runs off him. He's had plenty of success against the Tigers throughout his career, but I say that that was then, and this is now. The Yanks won't be lacking for motivation today after dropping 2 of 3 at Baltimore. They lost 5-0 on Sunday (note that New York though has seen the total go "over" the number in 9 of its last 13 after a shutout loss in its previous outing) and then had yesterday off. "We've got to find a way to get on the board and support our pitching," manager Aaron Boone assessed. The Tigers haven't played since Saturday, but Tyler Alexander is going to have his hands full as well against this determined visiting side. He most recently allowed 3 runs over 5 innings vs. Boston. Detroit slugger Miguel Cabrera needs just 5 more hits to reach the 3,000 mark, and while he may not achieve that tonight, he has a big opportunity to do that during this series. When you add it all up, the play is the over! AAA Sports |
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04-10-22 | Red Sox v. Yankees OVER 9 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
10* OVER (ASSASSIN) The first game of this series flew "over" the number, the second game went "under." I expect tonight's finale to once again be a higher-scoring one. Tanner Houck toes the slab for the visitors; He was 0-1 with a 3.77 ERA over 31 innings pitched on the road last year. The home side counters with Jordan Montgomery, who was 6-7 with a 3.83 ERA last year. These two division rivals won't take it easy at the plate in this nationally televised contest. Neither team's bullpen can be trusted and I don't expect either starter to throw very deep. This all adds up to a higher-scoring "over!" AAA Sports |
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04-09-22 | A's v. Phillies UNDER 9.5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
10* UNDER (ASSASSIN) Philadelphia pulled away for the high-scoring 9-5 win yesterday, but I expect much more of a classic pitchers duel on Saturday afternoon. Cole Irvin finished 10-15 with a 4.24 ERA last year for the A's, while Kyle Gibson was 10-9 with a 3.71 ERA and who was traded to the Phillies last summer. He's 5-3 with a 4.47 ERA lifetime against the A's. Gibson's familiarity of this club is another strong situational factor we can use here as well. Expect these two capable starters to throw deep, and look for this total to fall under! AAA Sports |
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11-02-21 | Braves v. Astros UNDER 9 | Top | 7-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER With the World Series set to return to Houston, the designated hitter is once again in play for both teams. That’s going to lead most bettors to believe that we’re possibly in store for a high-scoring affair in Game 6. But really, Game 5 has been the only “high-scoring” game of the World Series and that was due in large part to a Braves’ grand slam that was hit in the first inning. That won’t happen again. Take that one swing away and Atlanta has scored just eight runs total in the rest of the last four games. Tonight they must face Luis Garcia, who has a 2.71 ERA and 1.00 WHIP at home and more importantly a 12-3 Under record here. Only twice in the past eight games has Astros pitching allowed more than three runs. Opponents are barely batting .200 during that eight-game run. The Braves have Max Fried on the mound for Game 6. While Fried has turned in two straight subpar outings, the Under is 11-5 in his 16 road starts this year. Fried has allowed three runs or fewer in 23 of his last 29 starts. Play on UNDER AAA |
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10-30-21 | Astros v. Braves OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER While we aren’t exactly sure who will be “starting” this game for the Braves, who are now up two games to one in the 2021 World Series, we are pretty positive that the Astros are going to end up with more hits than they had last night. Led by a masterful outing from Ian Anderson, Atlanta kept Houston hitless for seven innings last night. All the Astros ended up with were two hits for the game as they lost 2-0. We liked it as the Braves were a winner for us and in breaking the game down we did issue a warning to Astros’ fans that the loss of the designated hitter could prove significant in Atlanta. But we trust Houston’s lineup will have at least a little of a bounce back tonight in Game 4 as Atlanta is going with a “bullpen game.” Not facing Anderson is a blessing for the road team, that’s for sure. The Astros still are averaging 5.8 runs/game for the entire postseason. The Braves are 6-0 at home in the playoffs and they stranded nine runners last night. So there’s a pretty clear cut case that they should have put more runs on the board in Game 3. They went 1 for 6 when they had runners in scoring position. Going up against Zack Greinke should help out the Atlanta offense. In Greinke’s only start during these playoffs, he lasted only 1.3 innings and gave up two runs. He’s not the same pitcher he once was and the Over is 26-10 in the Braves last 36 interleague home games vs. right-handed starters. Play on OVER AAA |
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10-21-21 | Braves v. Dodgers UNDER 8 | Top | 2-11 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER The late innings have been unkind to under bettors the last two nights in MLB. We know as we had the Under two nights ago in Houston-Boston, a game that was 2-2 heading into the ninth. The Astros erupted for seven runs in the final frame though. Them putting two on the board in the ninth last night also sent that ALCS game Over. It’s been a similar deal here in the NLCS with a four-run eighth inning rally by the Dodgers sending Tuesday’s game Over and then a four-run ninth by the Braves sending last night’s game Over. We are on the Under in Game 5. Excluding the eighth inning eruption in Game 3, the Dodgers have not done much at the plate in this series. They were held to four hits in Game 4. Now it’s Max Fried pitching for Atlanta. Fried has been the best starter in baseball over the second half of the season. In his last seven starts, Fried has a 1.34 ERA and 0.78 WHIP, leading the Braves to a 7-0 record. He’s given up only four runs in his last five starts. The Dodgers turn to their bullpen to try and keep their season alive. We’ll count on them to limit the Braves’ offense as visiting teams have scored only 3.3 runs/game at Dodger Stadium in 2021 and hit just .209. Play on UNDER AAA |
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10-19-21 | Astros v. Red Sox UNDER 10 | Top | 9-2 | Loss | -112 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER We are 2-0 in the ALCS. Both wins, which came in Games 1 and 3, were with the Over. It sure didn’t take long for the Over to hit last night. For the third time in two games, the Red Sox hit a grand slam. They were up 6-0 after two innings and 9-0 after three. It was when the Astros scored three runs in the top of the fourth that the Over officially became a winner. But we are “switching sides” tonight in Game 4 as it’s time this ALCS saw an Under. The Over is 3-0 in the series and 5-0 the last five times the teams have met. Not shocking as these were two of the highest scoring teams in baseball during the regular season. They have both gone Over in six straight playoff games. But the O/U line is higher (up to 10.0) for Game 4 and Zack Greinke is the key for the Astros. Greinke has yet to start a playoff game in 2021. He had a mediocre regular season. But we think he’ll “step up” like he did when he threw a scoreless inning of relief against the White Sox in the ALDS. But the problem for Houston is that they had only five hits in last night’s loss. Assuming the Red Sox stop hitting grand slams, a wise assumption based on the fact they are already the first team EVER to hit three in the same series, their scoring is set to go down. Nick Pivetta will start for Boston. He threw four scoreless innings of relief in his last appearance and held the Astros to just two runs in six innings when he faced them in the regular season. Play on UNDER AAA |
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10-18-21 | Astros v. Red Sox OVER 9 | Top | 3-12 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Let’s not overcomplicate or overthink things here. The two teams in this year’s American League Championship Series do not struggle to score runs. Houston leads all of MLB with a 5.4 runs/game scoring average. There is no drop off in scoring when they hit the road. They have scored five or more runs in nine straight games, going back to the final series of the regular season. The last seven games, which includes the regular season finale, has seen them average 6.9 runs/games while batting .293. The Astros will need to score plenty of runs to win here in Boston because the Red Sox average 5.8 runs/game at Fenway Park. That led the league in scoring at home. Going back to the Wild Card Game, Boston has averaged 6.4 runs/game and hit .318. There are reasons to be concerned about both starters in Game 3 on Monday. For Houston, Jose Urquidy has not pitched since the regular season finale. Eduardo Rodriguez of Boston has a 5.78 ERA at Fenway this year. Even worse is his 7.02 ERA in 10 career postseason starts and his 11.57 ERA in two regular season starts vs. the Astros. Play on OVER AAA |
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10-15-21 | Red Sox v. Astros OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 102 | 12 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER Going back to their series of the regular season (vs. Oakland), the Astros have averaged 7.7 runs over their last seven games, a stretch in which the Over is 6-1. Not to be outdone, the Red Sox scored 26 runs in their three wins over the Rays in the ALDS. They’ve averaged 6.3 runs in their last seven games. These were two of the five highest scoring teams in the regular season with Houston being #1. So this year’s ALCS figures to turn into a “slugfest” in short order. For Game 1, we’ve got two starting pitchers that have been struggling. Boston’s Chris Sale has a 10.39 ERA and 1.96 WHIP in his last three starts. Sale pitched one inning in the ALDS and allowed five runs. He has a 7.37 ERA and 1.71 WHIP on the road this year. Houston’s Framber Valdez has a 5.06 ERA in his past three starts after giving up four runs in each of the last two. The Over has hit in five of Valdez’s last six starts. All signs point to plenty of runs being scored tonight. Play on OVER AAA |
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10-10-21 | Astros v. White Sox OVER 8.5 | Top | 6-12 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Houston is the highest scoring team in the majors. They average 5.4 runs/game. In the first two games of this series, they scored 6 and 9 runs. They’ve now scored six or more runs in five straight games going back to the final regular season series. If you’re looking for any sort of decrease in offensive production now that the Astros are on the road, you better think again. They average the same number of runs/game on the road as they do at home. But it is going to take quite a few runs to win tonight as Chicago puts up an average of 5.1 runs/game at Guaranteed Rate Field. The White Sox had 11 hits in Game 2, but all were singles. They will face Luis Garcia here in Game 3. Garcia’s ERA is nearly two full points higher on the road than it is at home. So there is still hope for Chicago as they look to avoid being swept. But we are concerned that Dylan Cease was knocked around by the Astros earlier this year. He gave up seven runs to them back in June. With concerns about both starting pitchers, it seems quite probable that each team can score five runs tonight. Taking the Over seems like the logical move here. Play on OVER AAA |
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10-09-21 | Dodgers v. Giants OVER 7 | Top | 9-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER The Dodgers misfired in Game 1, losing 4-0 to the Giants. Even without Max Muncy’s 36 homers and 94 RBI’s, this lineup is far too potent to be held down like that again. This was the highest scoring National League team in the regular season. Only three American League teams scored more runs than the Dodgers in 2021 and they all got to use the DH most games. The Giants were the second highest scoring NL club and sixth overall. So even with two good starters on the hill for Game 2, we’re going to see more runs scored than we did in Game 1. Dodgers’ games average 8.7 runs. Giants’ games average 8.5. LA hasn’t lost a game with Urias pitching since July. But the southpaw did have one really bad start vs. the Giants this year, one where he got shelled for seven runs in five innings. San Francisco did homer three times Friday. Giants starter Kevin Gausman’s last six starts were all against non-playoff teams (three vs. San DIego) and he allowed seven homers. The offenses will get this one Over a low number. Play on OVER AAA |
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10-07-21 | Red Sox v. Rays OVER 8 | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER It didn’t take long for the Red Sox to jump on Gerrit Cole in the Wild Card Game Tuesday night. A two-run homer by Xander Bogaerts in the first inning set the tone and it was pretty much smooth sailing from that point on. Now it’s a date with AL East winner Tampa Bay in the LDS. Of course, these teams faced one another quite a bit during the regular season. The Rays hold an 11-8 head to head edge, but what we found interesting is that both wins over Boston in September were high-scoring affairs. Conversely, the three times that the Red Sox defeated the Rays in September, the games were all low scoring. That said, the Red Sox did average eight runs/game in their eight wins over TB this year. We anticipate this being a high-scoring game. Boston’s Eduardo Rodriguez has an 8.10 ERA in eight prior playoff appearances. He’s 2-4 with a 5.21 ERA in 13 career starts vs. the Rays. Shane McClanahan will start for Tampa, but probably won’t go too long. Boston did get to him for four runs in five innings last month. These are two of the top four highest scoring teams in the majors. The Over is 24-10-2 in the previous 36 meetings. Play on OVER AAA |
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10-02-21 | Brewers v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -125 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER The Dodgers beat the Brewers 8-6 last night, but the mood at Chavez Ravine ended up being somber as Clayton Kershaw exited the game with a forearm injury. His status for the playoffs is said to be “not great.” What a blow that would be for the defending World Series Champs, but they still have an outside shot at earning homefield advantage in the playoffs. They would have to win the final two games and have the Giants lose their last two. The second part of that equation is unlikely, but a team can dream. We’ve got a dream pitching matchup for Saturday as two Cy Young contenders face off. Corbin Burnes has the lowest ERA in the majors and Milwaukee has won his last 12 starts! Burnes has allowed no more than one run in 18 of his 27 starts this year. He is 7-0 on the road where his ERA is 1.64 and his WHIP is 0.77. If there’s anyone who can keep LA’s offense in check, it is Burnes. But on the flip side, Dodgers starter Julio Urias has a 10-0 team start record his last 10 starts! He has the most wins (19) of any starting pitcher in the majors. He’s permitted three runs or less in 25 of 31 starts. This figures to be a very low-scoring game, given the two starting pitchers. Play on UNDER AAA |
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09-29-21 | Nationals v. Rockies OVER 12 | Top | 5-10 | Win | 100 | 8 h 39 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER Here at Coors Field, it’s always expected to be a high-scoring affair. The Rockies average 5.6 runs/game themselves while also giving up an average of 5.1 runs/game. Year in and year out, Rockies’ home games seem to have the highest number of total runs/game scored in the National League, if not all of MLB. They’re right up there again this year. But after struggling to win here over the last week (it didn’t help that they faced the Dodgers and Giants), the Rockies won a low-scoring game over the Nationals last night, 3-1. This was after a 5-4 game, which Washington won, on Monday. We think this afternoon’s game will see a return to normalcy in Coors and even exceed the season average of runs/game scored here. Paolo Espino has started 17 games for the Nationals in 2021. He has a 5.90 ERA the seven times he’s started on the road. For the Rockies, Peter Lambert has started just once this year and he gave up two homers in 3.6 innings. Espino has never started in this park before. Going into yesterday, the Rockies were giving up an average of 6.0 runs/game over the last week. In the final game of the year at Coors, why wouldn’t you expect some fireworks? Washington is 13-2-1 Over L16 during Game 3 of a series. Play on OVER AAA |
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09-24-21 | Rangers v. Orioles OVER 9 | Top | 8-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER These two last place teams are just looking forward to the end of the season. Baltimore is tied with Arizona for the worst record in the majors at 49-104. Texas isn’t too far ahead at 55-98. It was the Orioles striking first in the series with a 3-0 win Thursday. They and the Rangers have matching 74-72-7 O/U records on the year. This game we think will be a more high-scoring affair. It’s hard to trust either Spencer Howard (Texas) or Alexander Wells (Baltimore). The two starters are a combined 0-7 in 19 starts this year and the individual numbers are pretty ugly for both. Howard’s numbers include a 6.50 ERA and 1.47 WHIP having also spent time with the Phillies. Wells is even worse with a 8.65 ERA and 1.77 WHIP. Both guys have ERAs over 8.00 in their last three starts. None of Howard’s previous five starts have lasted longer than five innings, Wells has allowed five runs each of his previous two starts. The Rangers give up an average of 5.4 runs/game on the road. Baltimore allows 6.5 at home! Play on OVER AAA |
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09-23-21 | Astros v. Angels UNDER 8.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Like you probably expected, the Astros have won the first three games of the series. They scored 10 runs in each of the first two games. They scored 9 yesterday, but this time it took them 12 innings to do so. They scored four in the top of the 12th to get the win and will now go for the sweep. We expect this one to be a lot lower scoring than the first three games. That’s mainly because of the two starting pitchers. Houston’s Lance McCullers is 4th in the AL in wins and 10th in strikeouts. The last four starts from McCullers have seen him never give up more than two runs. He has a 2.50 ERA this month. The Angels’ Alex Cobb is also having a good year. He’s allowed a total of just three earned runs his last five starts. He threw five shutout innings in Chicago last week, his first start back after a long injury absence. Play on UNDER AAA |
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09-20-21 | Orioles v. Phillies UNDER 8 | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER Two ballclubs in vastly different positions start an Interleague series on Monday. The Orioles (47-102) have the worst record in the majors and are simply waiting for the season to end. The Phillies (76-73) are trying to track down a playoff spot, whether it be the Wild Card or winning the NL East. As easy a matchup as it looks to be on paper for the home team, this could be a little tricky for Philadelphia. They lost by one to the Mets Sunday night as they could only put up two runs. John Means is Baltimore’s only good starter and he will be on the mound Monday. Means has seen all of his last five starts go Under the total. The most runs allowed by the left-hander in any of the five starts was three. But the Orioles are also 0-8 in Means’ last eight starts for a reason - they can’t score. In Means’ last six starts, they scored just 10 runs and were shut out on two different occasions. A team that scores only 3.7 runs/game now loses the designated hitter from the lineup. So the Phillies aren’t going to give up many runs with Ranger Suarez set to start this game. Suarez has a 1.85 ERA in his previous nine starts. That’s very good. The Orioles have won just one of their last nine games and it was a 3-2 win against the Yankees. The Phillies likely take this one, but the best bet is to take the Under, which has hit six of the last eight times they’ve been off a loss. Play on UNDER AAA |
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09-19-21 | Braves v. Giants UNDER 8 | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER It’s East meets West in this battle of division leaders. The Giants (97-52) have taken the first two games from the Braves (76-70) by scores of 6-5 and 2-0. The first game, which went to extra innings, saw us cash in on the home team. We noted that San Francisco has been far more consistent (they have the best record in all of baseball!) and far more profitable (now +40.0 units). As they go for the sweep Sunday, we’re going to play the Under this time. As already noted, Atlanta failed to score last night. That’s not uncharacteristic for Giants’ opponents. The SF pitching staff has allowed the third fewest number of runs in the majors. Anthony DeSclafani will start on Sunday. The Under is 3-0 in his previous three starts and his ERA is 2.12 in that time (his WHIP is 1.00). The Under is also 17-7 the last 24 times the Giants have been off a game where they were held to two runs or less. Atlanta only gives up 3.9 runs/game when on the road. They held the Giants to five hits Saturday. Max Fried has been on fire in the second half as he’s had a quality start in eight of his last nine appearances, including one complete game. They are 10-2 L12 road games. All signs point to this being a low-scoring affair. Play on UNDER AAA |
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09-15-21 | Astros v. Rangers OVER 9 | Top | 7-2 | Push | 0 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER By far, the most surprising result in Major League Baseball Tuesday night took place here in Arlington where the last place Rangers (54-90) defeated the first place Astros (84-60). It was only the fifth time in 17 tries that Texas was able to get a win in the season series. Keep in mind that Monday’s game ended up 15-1 in favor of Houston. We expect the road team to get things going at the plate again tonight as they face struggling Kohei Arihara. Arihara has made two starts since returning from the 60-day injured list. Both have gone Over. An issue with him going back to the start of the season is that Arihara almost never makes it through the fifth inning. Five of his last six starts have gone Over and he’s winless at home with a 9.22 ERA here. That’s not good. Especially since he’ll be facing an Astros team that puts up the second most runs per game in the majors (5.3 per game). So the road team will definitely score in this one. How about the home team? Well, Houston’s rotation has been besieged by injuries of late and today’s starter, Jose Urquidy, has not been immune. Like Arihara, Urquidy spent two months on the injured list. He hasn’t looked the same since, only lasting a total of 7.3 innings in two starts. The Over is 4-0-1 in Urquidy’s past five outings. Unlike most of the recent matchups that have been one-sided, we think this Astros-Rangers game will feature plenty of runs from both sides. Play on OVER AAA |
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09-15-21 | Brewers v. Tigers UNDER 9 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 20 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER The Brewers (89-56) and the Tigers (69-76) combined to score a total of one run in 11 innings Tuesday. That was a misfire by us as we laid the -1.5 on the run line with the favorite. Now certainly we didn’t expect Milwaukee to give up many runs. They came into last night riding a five-game win streak where they’d allowed a total of just seven runs. Three of their previous seven wins have been shutouts. Sure enough, they held the Tigers to three hits including the game-winning double in the 11th. We can’t envision a scenario where the home team does much at the plate this afternoon. Detroit will be facing Brandon Woodruff, who is among the league leaders in both ERA (2.48) and WHIP (0.97). Woodruff was roughed up a bit on Labor Day and then given the weekend off due to illness. We expect him to pitch well this afternoon on extended rest. In four of his five August starts, Woodruff allowed either one or zero runs. He has 24 strikeouts against only four walks his last three starts overall. The Tigers struck out 18 times last night! The Brewers had their fair share of chances at the plate, but they went only 1 for 10 when they had runners in scoring position. They should have won the game despite managing just four hits - all singles. We don’t think they’re going to score a ton today. Yesterday marked the second time in seven games they were shutout. Detroit is going with Matt Manning, who has allowed three runs or less in four of his last five starts. Play on UNDER AAA |
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09-11-21 | Giants v. Cubs UNDER 10.5 | Top | 15-4 | Loss | -104 | 4 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER The Cubs have won Zach Davies' last three starts. This despite Davies’ own 6.23 ERA and 1.62 WHIP in that stretch. Now his individual numbers are skewed a bit due to allowing six runs to Pittsburgh on Sunday. But you’ve also got to consider the last three opponents that Davies has faced. Not only was it the Pirates, but you also had matchups with Minnesota and Colorado. That’s two last place teams and a home start vs. a team that’s 20-50 on the road. It’s a much different caliber of opponent on Saturday for Davies and the Cubs. The Giants have the best record in the majors. Following a 6-1 at Wrigley on Friday San Francisco is 91-50 and has won five straight. They lead the Dodgers by 2.5 games in the NL West. Kevin Gausman has pitched very well for them this season and gets the start this afternoon. Gausman has a sub-1.00 WHIP overall and his ERA on the road is 1.95. In 26 of his 28 starts, Gausman hasn’t given up more than three earned runs. The Cubs are hitting just .219 against righties, so this is an awful matchup for them and they are very likely to lose. But we’ll also call for a quieter day than usual at the plate for the Giants. They’ve scored six or more in every game during this win streak. The Under is 11-3-2 in the Giants’ last 17 games in Chicago where they have lost 17 of 21. The Cubs have gone Under in four straight. Play on UNDER AAA |
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09-10-21 | Padres v. Dodgers UNDER 8 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER The Dodgers and Padres renew pleasantries in what will be a big series for both teams. Believe it or not, San Diego holds the head to head edge in the season series, 7-6. But they did get swept at home by the Dodgers late last month. The Padres are desperately holding onto the second Wild Card spot in the National League with a one-game lead over Cincinnati while St. Louis and Philadelphia are also lurking close behind. The Dodgers have a playoff spot all but locked up as they are 13 games ahead of the Padres. But right now they’d also be a WIld Card, meaning they’d host San Diego in the one-game playoff. Los Angeles clearly has its eyes on the division crown though as they trail San Francisco by 2.5 games. Do not look for many runs to be scored in this game. The Padres send out Joe Musgrove and he’s given up two runs or fewer in seven of his last eight starts. Musgrove has gone at least six innings in six of those starts as well. The Dodgers counter with Julio Urias. He’s allowed two earned runs or fewer in eight straight starts. In fact, he’s allowed just eight runs total in those eight starts. The Dodgers have won the last six! We can’t believe this total isn’t lower. Play on UNDER AAA |
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09-09-21 | White Sox v. A's UNDER 8.5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER We had the A’s last night and they won 5-1, evening this series with the White Sox up at a game apiece. Of the two teams, the A’s are the ones in greater need of more wins. Last night ended a four-game losing streak for them and they are three games back of the Wild Card. Chicago comfortably leads the AL Central by 11 games and will make the playoffs without question. But we are a little less bullish on the home team today. That’s because they won’t be going against Dallas Keuchel again. It’ll be Reynaldo Lopez starting this afternoon for the White Sox. This will be his sixth start of the year. While he’s yet to go more than five innings in any of the first five, Lopez has only given up eight total runs so far. He faced Oakland last month and held them to only one hit in five innings. The A’s didn’t even score a run in that game. The White Sox scored nine times, but they won’t get nearly that many today as they will face Sean Manaea. His last start was very good as he held Toronto to just a pair of runs in seven innings. It was rather unfortunate the A’s ended up losing that game 11-10, but you can blame the bullpen for that. These teams have met six times in ‘21 and none of the games have gone Over (three unders, three pushes). There have been just 15 total runs scored in the first two games and only one home run hit. Play on UNDER AAA |
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09-07-21 | Blue Jays v. Yankees OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -114 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER Eight runs were scored in yesterday’s Blue Jays- Yankees game and all of them came from the road team. Things could very well “flip” in favor of the home team today, but we expect more runs to be scored. While that may surprise you, given that Gerrit Cole is starting, Toronto has scored 37 runs in the last four games. They’ve scored at least eight times in all four. They could have scored even more than eight yesterday as the Yankees committed three errors, but none were capitalized on. Obviously, you’ve got to expect the Yankees will bounce back in the batters box tonight. Steven Matz’s career ERA vs. NY is 5.77. Matz’s last four starts have all been against bad teams - Seattle, Detroit twice and Baltimore. So it’s no wonder his numbers have improved recently. The Yankees are 6-1 after being shutout this season. Expect this game to go Over the total. Play on OVER AAA |
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09-03-21 | Astros v. Padres OVER 9 | Top | 6-3 | Push | 0 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Houston has been shutout in its last two games. As you’d imagine, such an occurrence is quite uncommon. It has happened once before in 2021. Sure enough, the Astros bounced back to score eight runs in the next game. That’s what we’re looking for tonight as we play the Over in the series opener with the San Diego Padres. Houston leads all teams in scoring this year, averaging 5.3 runs/game. San Diego’s pitching is in tatters right now and the chance to face Jake Arrieta is something Houston should take full advantage of tonight. Arrieta has been really bad - whether pitching for the Cubs or Padres. He has a 7.13 ERA over 21 starts. He’s failed to go more than four innings in any of his last six starts and has a 13.50 ERA in the last three. So we know Houston is going to put a crooked number on the board tonight. Look for San Diego also to score enough here to make sure the game goes Over. They are facing Jose Urquidy, who hasn’t pitched since June. Six of Urquidy’s last eight starts went Over with the Astros scoring at least nine runs five times. He’ll be on a pitch count. San Diego has gone Over its last seven interleague games vs. teams with winning records. Play on OVER AAA |
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09-03-21 | Pirates v. Cubs OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 26 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER The Pirates and Cubs started their series yesterday and the home team took the opener by a score of 6-5. It was not the most deserved win for the Cubbies, but after a disastrous August they’ll take a “W” anyway they can get it. In this instance, it was a mishandled pop fly by Pirates second baseman Wilmer Difo in the 11th inning that brought home the winning run. The Cubs did have 12 hits to the Pirates’ 7, so in that regard they did deserve to win. But their first five runs of the game all came in the seventh inning. It was the fourth straight win over the Pirates going back to May. The Cubs have now won three in a row overall. The Pirates wasted a perfectly good start from Mitch Keller last night. They are unlikely to get the same kind of outing here today from Steven Brault. Not only is Brault winless in his five starts this year, but he is coming off his worst performance yet. He gave up seven runs in three innings on Saturday. The Cubs have not been a good opponent for Brault. He is 0-2 with a 6.52 ERA against them in 16 appearances, which includes seven starts. Similarly, Cubs starter Alec Mills hasn’t been good in the past against the Pirates. He’s 0-2 with a 5.51 ERA in seven career matchups. The wind is expected to be blowing out today at Wrigley. With that bit of news, two subpar starting pitchers and the Over 4-0-1 the last five games at Wrigley, we’re going Over. Play on OVER AAA |
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09-02-21 | Braves v. Rockies OVER 12.5 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER You won’t find too many MLB totals higher than this one. But we’re at Coors Field where the average number of runs per game scored this season is 10.6. The Rockies average 5.9 themselves, the most by any team in their home park across all of baseball. The Braves couldn’t wait to get out of Chavez Ravine after being swept there to start the week. Something tells us that they’ll enjoy facing the Rockies much more than they did the Dodgers. It starts with going up against Chi Chi Gonzalez. With only two wins in 16 starts, it’s not been a good 2021 for the Colorado hurler. His ERA is 6.15. Gonzalez wasn’t even supposed to pitch today. Scheduled starter Jon Gray had to go on the injured list because of right forearm tightness. This comes after yesterday’s starter Kyle Freeland left in the second inning with his own injury. Gonzalez had fallen out of the rotation, making only one start in August. He allowed three runs in three innings. He’s also allowed at least one home run in 10 consecutive starts going back to May. The good news for Colorado is that they scored nine runs in a come from behind win over Texas on Wednesday afternoon. They go against Touki Toussaint. Toussaint had a good August, but has never pitched at Coors Field before. Seven of his previous nine starts had gone Over before the last one stayed Under. All three games vs. the Dodgers went Under. But it’s a much different opponent for the Braves this weekend. Play on OVER AAA |
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08-30-21 | Padres v. Diamondbacks UNDER 9.5 | Top | 7-5 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Arizona’s Tyler Gilbert made his first career start 16 days ago. It was a performance he’ll never forget. Gilbert was the first left-handed pitcher since 1953 to throw a no-hitter in his debut. Now he will once again face the same team he threw that no-hitter against. San Diego is in a free-fall right now and hasn’t been the same since being no-hit by Gilbert. The Padres’ record over the past 16 games is 3-13. They have been held to three runs or fewer in 10 of those 16 contests. They last played on Saturday and lost 10-2 to the Angels. We don’t think they’ll give up that many runs again tonight. The number of runs San Diego allowed on Saturday was their most in a game since an August 12th loss to Arizona. Chris Paddack is set to make his return after missing a month due to injury. Arizona is an ideal opponent for him to return against. Paddack has a 3.38 ERA in eight career starts vs. the Diamondbacks. Arizona was shut out on Saturday, then scored just four runs on Sunday. They lost both games. We can’t possibly get behind the Diamondbacks, a team with a 44-88 record on the year. But we don’t want to back the slumping Padres either. We are confident that the opener of this series will belong to the pitchers though. Play on UNDER AAA |
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08-28-21 | Astros v. Rangers OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Houston and Texas have played one another 13 times in 2021. The one win by the road team was last night with Houston coming out on top 5-4. It wasn’t looking good early as the Astros trailed 4-0 going into the seventh. But then they erupted for five runs as six consecutive batters reached base. While we acknowledge Houston had just two hits before that, this is the highest scoring team in the game. They put up 5.5 runs/game on the road and have averaged 6.6 their last seven games. They should get to Rangers starter Kolby Allard Saturday night. Allard has been better this month, but still has a 5.29 ERA and his last three starts have all gone Over. The last time he saw Houston, it was ugly as he gave up seven runs. Texas is playing hard, scoring at least four runs in six of the last eight ball games. If they can do that again, then this game should easily eclipse the total. Framber Valdez has been pretty inconsistent for Houston this year. So while he dominated the Rangers last month, it could be a much different story on the road. The Astros are 7-2-2 Over their last 11 games at Texas. Play on OVER AAA |
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08-26-21 | Reds v. Brewers OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 28 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER We cashed the Under AND the Brewers yesterday in this matchup, but today we’re taking the Over. The first two games of this series saw the Brewers send out Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff, their two top pitchers. Today they are forced to settle on Brett Anderson. Anderson’s ERA over his past three starts is 6.59. His WHIP is 1.61. He’s lost his last two starts. In 10 career starts vs. Cincinnati, Anderson is 4-3 with a 4.13 ERA. The Reds put up 5.0 runs/game when they are opposed by a left-handed starter. If they can score four runs off Burnes, they are certainly capable of doing the same or more vs. Anderson. The Brewers may have only scored four runs last night, but the three previous games saw them cross the plate a total of 23 times. They are 3-0 against Sonny Gray this season and that’s who they’ll be facing this afternoon. Milwaukee comes in averaging 5.1 runs/game when they are up against a right-handed starter. The Reds also have bullpen issues. Play on OVER AAA |
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08-25-21 | Reds v. Brewers UNDER 8 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER So in addition to liking the Brewers, we also like this game to go Under. In the other writeup, the exploits of Brandon Woodruff were detailed. The Over has hit in each of his last three starts. But that’s atypical. The Under had gone 13-6-2 in his first 21 starts. The Under is also 6-2 when the Reds face the Brewers here in Milwaukee this season. Yesterday was one of the two Overs. But even though we like Milwaukee to win here, we don’t see them scoring seven runs again. This is a team that averages just 4.3 runs/contest at home. They bat .221 at American Family Field. They will win this game because of Woodruff. Willy Adames and Eduardo Escobar, two very productive hitters, are both out of the Brewers lineup today. The Under is 38-18-4 in Milwaukee’s previous 60 games against teams that have winning records. The Under is also 37-13-4 in Cincinnati’s last 54 Wednesday games. Play on UNDER AAA |
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08-21-21 | Mets v. Dodgers OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 37 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER The Dodgers look to be unstoppable right now as they’ve won eight straight games. But we should point out that five of those wins came by one run. It was 3-2 over the Mets on Friday. That was the same number of runs that we saw scored in Thursday’s game, which was a 4-1 win by the home team. We think the Dodgers will come out swinging today. It’s crucial to remember that they are the NL’s highest scoring team. Only two other National League teams are within 40 runs of their season total, those being the Reds and Braves. They should put some runs on the board here vs. Rich Hil, a former teammate of theirs. Hill typically doesn’t go past the fifth inning. The Mets’ bullpen has an ERA of 4.70 on the road, so the more we see of them, the more likely it is the Dodgers might put this one Over all by themselves. Mets’ road games average about two more runs/game than Mets’ home games. Max Scherzer, now 3-0 in three starts for the Dodgers, was supported with 14 runs when he started against the Mets last week. He allowed two runs. We think he will give up more today. Play on OVER AAA |
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08-20-21 | Phillies v. Padres OVER 9 | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 15 m | Show | |
This is a 10* on OVER These are two teams having bad weeks. Philadelphia was swept by Arizona. San Diego was swept by Colorado. But if there’s one bit of solace for the Padres it’s that they are the ones who get to head back home. They have a 40-24 home mark. But we feel that there’s a better chance this game goes Over as opposed to the Padres winning. We know it sounds strange in light of recent results. The Padres didn’t do much scoring at Coors Field despite it being a hitters park. But Matt Moore is a pitcher they should do some damage against. Moore’s ERA this year for the Phillies is 6.05. His WHIP is 1.545. We probably shouldn’t be fooled by his last start, which saw him turn in six shutout innings. He’d given up six runs in back to back starts before that. Moore was very efficient in the last start, only needing 76 pitches to get through six innings. But we’re not likely to see that kind of efficiency today and that means more of the Phillies bullpen, a group which isn’t very good. Blake Snell has been one of San Diego’s most effective starters lately. But his season-long numbers (4.80 ERA, 1.60 WHIP) suggest that isn’t likely to continue. The Over is on a 14-5 Run in Phillies’ road games and 16-7 run in Padres’ home games. These teams will both put a decent number of runs on the board Friday night. Play on OVER AAA |
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08-20-21 | Giants v. A's OVER 9 | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 9* on OVER The A’s were able to scratch and claw their way to a 5-4 win yesterday in Chicago. That ended a four-game losing streak. Now in come the Giants, the team with the best record in the majors, and they had Thursday off. While off a loss, the Giants are 9-2 their last 11 games. They already average nearly five full runs per contest and now they’ll get to substitute a DH in place of the pitcher in the batting order. So we should this game go Over the total. James Kaprielian, today’s starter for Oakland, has seen his previous three starts all go Over. Kaprielian has pitched better at home than on the road. However, the last time he faced a National League lineup, the results were poor. He gave up six runs in San Diego and that was without the designated hitter rule in play. Alex Wood has an ERA approaching 6.00 his last three starts. So we expect him to struggle as well. Wood has allowed four or more runs in three of his last four trips to the mound. The Over is on a 7-3 run for Oakland, at home, following a road trip of seven or more days. San Francisco is on a 26-12-1 Over run in interleague play. Play on OVER AAA |
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08-19-21 | Twins v. Yankees OVER 10 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 7 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER The red-hot Yankees, now in Wild Card position, look to win a seventh straight game on Thursday. They just swept Boston and have allowed all of 14 runs in the past six games. Now they face Minnesota, who is also hot. The Twins have won 9 of their last 13 games and four straight series. Three of those series were against first place teams. They put up eight runs yesterday in an 11-inning win over Cleveland. It was impressive that Minnesota was able to come back and win that game considering the Indians scored a run in each of the first five innings. We can’t trust Thursday’s starter John Gant going against the Yankees, can we? Gant has a 9.90 ERA and 1.80 WHIP over his previous three starts. This is his first start for the Twins after being traded from St. Louis. In his last 14 innings of work, Gant has allowed 18 runs. So the Yankees should score plenty tonight. But how many will Minnesota score? All three games vs. the Yankees earlier in the year went Over as have 10 of the last 12 meetings. So we think they’ll score enough off Jameson Taillon to help get this one Over. Play on OVER AAA |
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08-19-21 | A's v. White Sox OVER 7 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 19 h 49 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER The White Sox can make it a four-game sweep with a win today. They lead the AL Central by 12 games, the largest lead in any division right now. They are one of only six teams with 70 wins and one of only five with a run differential greater than +130. So they are definitely sitting pretty. Can’t say the same for Oakland, whose four game losing streak has them on the edge of falling out of the Wild Card. Cole Irvin was supposed to start yesterday for the A’s, but was a late scratch. Irvin gave up five runs in his last start to a Texas team that is dead last in the AL in scoring. The White Sox average 5.0 runs/game and have scored 17 in the last three games. We like their chances of putting up a big number today. This Over then hinges on the A’s and if they can get the bats going. We think they can. Dylan Cease often does not make it through six innings for the White Sox and that could be a problem today as the bullpen was called in earlier than expected last night because of Lance Lynn’s ejection. The first three games have averaged only seven runs/contest, but this should be the highest scoring of the bunch. Play on OVER AAA |
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08-19-21 | Astros v. Royals OVER 7 | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 19 h 49 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER It would truly be a shocking result if the Royals were to sweep this series. They’ve kept the Astros at bay, winning 7-6, 3-1 and 3-2 in the first three games. Houston (70-50) still leads the AL West by 2.5 games as they are lucky Oakland is also on a four-game losing streak. Kansas City (52-67) remains in last in the Central, although they do now have a winning record at home. Win or lose, you’ve got to think the Astros’ offense gets it going today. They are #1 in the majors in runs/game. Their scoring average on the road, 5.5 runs/game, is higher than it is at home. They will face Mike Minor Thursday. Minor isn’t very good; he has a 5.35 ERA in 24 starts. He also has a 4.29 ERA in 16 career appearances vs. the Astros. Over his last three starts, Minor has given up six home runs. Kansas City should score too though. Houston’s Luis Garcia has a 4.93 ERA on the road. His last start of July and first start of August were both on the road. Both times he allowed at least five runs and didn’t make it through the fifth inning. Our view is that today’s game will be more like the opener (7-6) than either of the last two games. Play on OVER AAA |
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08-18-21 | Brewers v. Cardinals OVER 7 | Top | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER This total seems to have gotten a bit too low. Sure, the Brewers and Cardinals played to a 2-0 final last night and we’ve got two starting pitchers in good form set to go tonight. But Milwaukee, who now has 41 road wins, should have scored a lot more in yesterday’s game. They collected 14 hits on Tuesday. Scoring only two runs in a game where you have 14 hits is quite rare. The team went 3 for 15 when they had runners in scoring position. St. Louis wasn’t any better, going 0 for 5 in that situation. Some timely hitting would go a long way today and that’s what we expect. Jack Flaherty has a 5.21 ERA in his career vs. Milwaukee. So history says he will struggle in this spot. It was only three starts ago that Flaherty was charged with seven runs, four of them unearned, in a loss against the White Sox. The Brewers score 5.0 runs/game away from home, a big reason for their success there. As for Freddy Peralta, who starts tonight for the Brewers, there can be no denying what a great year he is having. But it won’t take much to send this one Over. The Cardinals scored 29 runs in the four games previous to yesterday’s loss. Play on OVER AAA |
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08-15-21 | Dodgers v. Mets UNDER 8 | Top | 14-4 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 9* on UNDER The game went 10 innings last night, but there were still only three runs scored on eight hits. The Dodgers now can sweep the Mets Sunday night on ESPN. It’s been a pair of one-run victories for Los Angeles so far, 6-5 and 2-1. We think tonight’s game - in terms of number of runs scored - will mirror what happened Saturday. Mainly because we have an outstanding pitching matchup. Max Scherzer will make his third start for the Dodgers since being traded from Washington. Scherzer was limited to 3.3 innings in his last start because of rain. He didn’t give up any runs though. That was after keeping Houston to two runs in seven innings in his Dodgers debut. In 10.3 innings pitched for his new team, Scherzer has 16 strikeouts. This is someone with a 2.67 ERA and 0.89 WHIP for the season. Carlos Carrasco is the Mets starter for Sunday. This will be his fourth appearance since starting the year on the DL. Carrasco is definitely better than what he’s shown thus far in limited work. You also have to consider this game taking place at Citi Field. No park has been lower scoring in 2021. The Mets and their opponents have combined to average just 6.6 runs/game here. Play on UNDER AAA |
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08-15-21 | Reds v. Phillies UNDER 8.5 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 48 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER So far, this series has been an exchange of 6-1 victories. Cincinnati drew first blood on Friday. Then Philadelphia paid them back on Saturday. With the Reds, there’s a big difference in how many total runs per game are scored when they are at home (11.0) vs. the road (8.8). The Phillies only put 4.2 runs/game at home. Today’s game could very well be more competitive than the previous two, but we believe it will again be low-scoring. Aaron Nola pitching for the home team should play a major role in today’s game staying Under. Nola has a 2.97 ERA and 0.96 WHIP at home. He threw four shutout innings against the Dodgers on Tuesday. That was at home. Before that, Nola’s previous home start saw him finish one out shy of a complete game four-hitter (only allowed one run). Today Nola is opposed by Sonny Gray. Gray has been effective in two of his last three starts. The last one, he gave up just two runs and three hits. The Under has hit seven straight times when these teams play in Philadelphia. The Reds are 40-18-3 Under L61 games vs. the NL East. The Phillies are 7-0-1 Under their last eight games. Play on UNDER AAA |
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08-14-21 | Padres v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8.5 | Top | 0-7 | Win | 101 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER San Diego’s penchant for “playing down” to their level of competition reared its ugly head again last night as they fell 3-2 to Arizona. The Diamondbacks have won a league-low 37 times in 2021. But six of those wins have been at the Padres’ expense. That’s a really high percentage considering the Padres still have to be considered a top 10 team and figure to make the Wild Card Game. San Diego probably likes its chances tonight with Joe Musgrove starting. Musgrove’s last four starts have spanned 25 innings and he’s given up four runs. But what’s pretty shocking is how the Padres are just 12-10 in Musgrove starts. Ten times they’ve gone out and scored three runs or less in games he has started. So our call here is for the Under to hit. Arizona is simply not much of a threat to score many runs in this game. The wildcard is Tyler Gilbert, making his big league debut as a starter. San Diego has only scored five runs in the last three games. So look for Gilbert to surprise in this spot. Play on UNDER AAA |
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08-13-21 | Cardinals v. Royals UNDER 8.5 | Top | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the UNDER The only interleague series on tap for this weekend is the “I-70” rivalry between the Cardinals and Royals. It takes place in Kansas City, so the Cardinals will be forced to use the designated hitter. Don’t fall into the trap of thinking that will necessarily lead to an increase in scoring, however. When the Cardinals came to Kauffman Stadium last year, they averaged just 3.0 runs/contest. They are the 4th lowest scoring team from the National League. Offensively, Kansas City ranks near the bottom of the American League. We like the fact Jack Flaherty is going to start today for St. Louis. He is 3-0 all-time vs. the Royals. In those three starts, he has a 0.95 ERA. He didn’t pitch in last week’s series where the Cardinals held the Royals to just two runs in two of three games. The Royals also scored two runs yesterday. St. Louis’ only loss in its last six games was the finale of the last series with KC, a game that had a long rain delay. They just swept the Pirates and allowed one run in the first two games of that three-game series. All we need is Mike Minor to just do his job as the Royals starter. His last four starts have all gone Under. None of the games have had more than seven runs scored. Play on UNDER AAA |
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08-12-21 | Cardinals v. Pirates UNDER 9 | Top | 7-6 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 60 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER It seems like you can always count on the Pirates not to score many runs. Over the course of a seven-game losing streak, they have put up 12 runs total. Twice they’ve been shutout. One of those two times was yesterday, 4-0 by the Cardinals. Pittsburgh was already the lowest scoring team in baseball prior to the losing streak. Now the gap between them and the second lowest scoring team has gotten even more severe. Texas and the Mets are the only teams that haven't put up at least 50 more runs than the Pirates this year. So when playing the total with this team, Under has to be your natural reaction. They have just three hits in this series with the Cardinals! Wade LeBlanc, a lefty that has put up good numbers of late for St. Louis, is who they will face today. LeBlanc has a 2.94 ERA his last seven starts and is coming off a hard-luck no decision against Atlanta. He allowed only two runs and three hits in six innings, a game the Cardinals ultimately lost 8-4. The Cardinals aren’t all that high scoring either. They are the NL’s third lowest scoring team. It’s been a rough ride of late for the Pirates JT Brubaker. However, he did pitch very well in his last home start, giving up just one run and three hits. Throw in the fact this is a day game and you’ve gotta go Under. Play on UNDER AAA |
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08-11-21 | Marlins v. Padres UNDER 8 | Top | 7-0 | Win | 100 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER It’s been a couple Overs to start this series. San Diego has won the two games by scores of 8-3 and 6-5. Miami has lost five in a row overall. In all five losses, the Over has hit. The Over is 8-1 in Miami’s last nine games. The Over is 8-1-1 in the Padres' last 10 games. So it does seem reasonable to expect another 11-run game. Neither of the two starters for today’s game have been very good of late either. But we have some faith in Miami’s Sandy Alcantara to bounce back from an absolutely hideous showing at Colorado. He was charged with 10 runs. Prior to that, he’d allowed zero runs in seven innings against the Yankees. Fernando Tatis will again not be on the Padres’ lineup card. Alcantara has far more good starts than bad ones this year. The Under is 14-7 in all Alcantara starts. But the thing is, he likely can’t count on much run support today. Miami is not a team that scores a ton on the road. Visitors to Petco Park only average 3.7 runs/contest. Ryan Weathers threw four shutout innings for the Padres against the Marlins just last month. His last two outings didn’t go well, but he’s not facing those teams today. Play on UNDER AAA |
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08-10-21 | Dodgers v. Phillies OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Coming off last year’s World Series win, the Dodgers have once again been one of the best teams this year. But the Phillies are the hottest team in August with a perfect 8-0 mark. These teams collide for three games starting Tuesday. We like the opener to go Over the total. The Dodgers are the highest scoring National League team. So we know we can count on them for five or more runs. They average 5.4 per game on the road and have put up an average of 6.3 the last seven games overall. Philadelphia - even after a low-scoring series with the Mets where every game went Under - have scored 55 runs during their win streak. That’s an average of nearly seven runs/game. We know Max Scherzer is a very good starting pitcher and obviously the Dodgers do too (why they traded for him!) but four of his last five starts have gone Over including his Dodgers debut. He’s allowed at least one homer in all five starts. Aaron Nola has seen four of his last six starts go Over. The last one saw him give up five runs. Play on OVER AAA |
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08-09-21 | Marlins v. Padres UNDER 7.5 | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Yesterday’s 2-0 win for the Padres was the lowest scoring game they’ve been involved in since the second half of the season began. There had been a couple times they’d been held to one run, but two total runs in the game was a new low. You would think they figure to do well in this home series against Miami. But the Padres do have a penchant for dropping games to bad teams. They split a four game series with the Marlins a couple weeks ago. We are confident in Joe Musgrove getting the job done, however. In his previous three starts, Musgrove has allowed only three runs in 19 innings. His ERA and WHIP for the year currently stand at 3.07 and 1.01. The numbers get even better at home. But his team start record of 11-10 shows Musgrove doesn’t always get run support. The Marlins’ pitching staff is top six in the National League for least amount of runs allowed. (San Diego is 5th). Thompson is making his 10th start for the Marlins tonight. The Under is 7-2 with him on the mound so far. He has a 2.74 ERA and 1.10 WHIP, very comparable numbers to the more heralded Musgrove. After being swept in Colorado over the weekend, Miami is going to be desperate for a win here. The problem is they only score 3.9 runs/game. This is going to be a low-scoring affair. Play on UNDER AAA |
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08-08-21 | Mets v. Phillies OVER 8 | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -107 | 5 h 42 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER We are looking to avenge one of the two losses we’ve suffered over the last five days (12-2 overall run). We had the Over in the first game between the Mets and Phillies, which saw the latter win 4-2 to take over first place in the NL East. In that game, the Mets were 1 for 8 with runners in scoring position. They were no better in that situation last night, going 0 for 5, and they didn’t even score a run until the ninth inning. It was a 5-3 loss this time. The Phillies have won seven in a row. They scored four of their runs in one big inning last night. We’d seen plenty of offense from them before this series got underway as they had scored 43 runs in five games. We think it is likely that they will have their highest scoring effort of this series today. They face Taijuan Walker, whose last six starts have all gone Over for the Mets. The last four have seen Walker pitch poorly. He’s given up 21 runs in his last 15 innings. Not good. For the Phillies, Zack Wheeler has allowed four or more runs in three of his last five starts. The teams are somewhat due to play a high-scoring game. Mets’ road games are definitely higher scoring than their home games. Play on OVER AAA |
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08-08-21 | Mariners v. Yankees UNDER 9 | Top | 2-0 | Win | 102 | 4 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER One could make the argument that - with five one-run losses over the last week - the Mariners have gotten a taste of their own medicine. Prior to those five losses, the team had been 23-8 in one-run games, which is some pretty darn good fortune. But the Mariners have had no luck this weekend in Yankees Stadium where they’ve lost the first three games of the series. Yesterday’s 5-4 loss was probably the most painful as they blew a 4-1 lead. The Yankees scored the game-winning run on a double play. Earlier in the inning, they capitalized on a three-base error. Winners of 10 of their last 12 games, the Yankees are playing their best baseball of the season right now. The odds have curiously swung towards Seattle for Sunday, so we will stay away from rendering a decision on who is going to win. But look for it to be a clean sweep with the Under in this series. The first three games have seen only eight, five and nine runs scored. Seattle has the lowest batting average in the majors while New York has scored the fourth fewest number of runs in the American League. Only the three last place teams have scored less. Kikuchi is a really solid starter for the Mariners. Of the two runs he allowed in his last start, only one was “earned.” Gil’s first career start for the Yankees couldn’t have gone much better. He didn’t allow a run in six innings. Play on UNDER AAA |
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08-07-21 | Tigers v. Indians UNDER 9.5 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER We also like this Tigers-Indians matchup to stay Under the total. We already went through Cleveland’s head to head domination of Detroit In the analysis for the pick on the side. Also know that the Tigers have scored no more than three runs six of the last 10 times they’ve faced Cleveland. The Tigers’ last eight games have all stayed Under with no more than nine combined runs scored in any of them. As we stated in the other writeup, Cleveland rookie Eli Morgan is likely to continue a strong stretch of starts today. But the Indians probably won’t match their scoring from yesterday. They only average 3.8 runs/contest when facing a left-handed starter. Detroit’s Tyler Alexander is a lefty. We think he can limit the damage somewhat, though the Indians will still win this one. Play on UNDER AAA |
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08-07-21 | Pirates v. Reds OVER 10.5 | Top | 3-11 | Win | 100 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER The Reds pummelled the Pirates last night, winning 10-0. It was 7-0 after the first innings. Cincinnati is 7-1 vs. Pittsburgh this year, 5-0 at home. The first two games of this series have seen 11 and 10 runs scored. We should be in for another high-scoring affair Saturday night. Neither starter is anything to write home about. Pittsburgh’s Mitch Keller has been getting shelled recently. He’s allowed four runs in back to back starts. Neither start went more than five innings. Cincinnati’s Gutierrez has a 7.17 ERA at home. Truthfully, none of the Reds starters have done very well at Great American Ballpark this year. Opponents have averaged 5.5 runs/contest here. So the Pirates, weak as they may be offensively, should at least put SOME runs on the board Saturday. Of course, the Reds will too. They average the same number of runs/contest that they allow at home. In eight games vs. the Pirates this year, the Reds have scored 68 times. That includes 16 runs in the first two innings of the last two games. In their last 10 games, the Reds have scored six or more runs eight different times. Play on OVER AAA |
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08-06-21 | Diamondbacks v. Padres OVER 8.5 | Top | 8-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 37 m | Show |
full analysis to follow |
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08-06-21 | Mets v. Phillies OVER 9 | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the OVER This is a battle for first place in the NL East. The Mets have held the top spot for a long time now, but their lead is now down to a half game. The Phillies swept their last series, winning all four games in Washington. The Mets weren’t nearly as successful in Miami where they lost two of three. Philadelphia did have to come from behind yesterday, scoring four runs in the top of the ninth, but they’ll take a win anyway they can get it. They’ve won five in a row now and all five of those games also went Over. The Mets had a three-game Over run stopped yesterday in a 4-2 loss where they left 15 runners on base. A big key here is how Mets’ road games tend to see a lot more scoring than their home games. It’s a difference of 2.8 more runs/game on the road. The Phillies have scored 43 runs during their five-game win streak. So we’ve got no worries with them. A pitching matchup of Stroman vs. Gibson might give you some pause about betting the Over here, but Stroman did allow four runs in his most recent start. Gibson is making his second start since coming over from Texas and the National League remains an unfamiliar scene. The two previous times Gibson has faced the Mets have resulted in a 6.75 ERA. The Over is 7-1 in the last eight meetings in Philadelphia. Play on OVER AAA |
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08-05-21 | Angels v. Rangers UNDER 9.5 | Top | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 6 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER When Texas won the first game of this series, they found themselves on a three-game win streak. That was their longest win streak in over a month and just the fifth win streak of that length all season. So a return to poor form was all but assured and wouldn’t you know - the Rangers have lost two straight to the Angels. In doing so, they’ve scored only four runs. They lost 11-3 on Tuesday while last night was a lot closer at 2-1. This team just can’t hit. They came into yesterday with a .214 batting average over the last week. In addition to being the lowest scoring team in the American League, the Rangers are either last or next to last in batting average, OPS, OBP and slugging. So don’t worry about them scoring many runs in today’s matinee. Angels starter Dylan Bundy has pitched well vs. Texas in his career. He’s made 10 appearances against them and gone 5-2 with a 3.51 ERA. But the road team hasn’t done much scoring as of late either. In six of the last seven games, Los Angeles has not scored more than three runs. Five times they’ve scored two or less. Spencer Howard is making his Rangers debut today after being traded over from the Phillies. Howard was the Phillies’ #1 pitching prospect at the start of this season. Given how little the Angels have been scoring as of late (save for Tuesday), Howard should do fine here. The Angels are 10-1 Under in their past 11 road games. Play on UNDER AAA |
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08-04-21 | Astros v. Dodgers OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER The Astros and Dodgers are two of baseball's best. They are also the two highest scoring teams. Houston averages 5.5 runs/game. Los Angeles averages 5.2. Now last night’s game was low-scoring, a 3-0 win by the Astros. But you should expect something different tonight. Though they are being forced to send the pitcher up to bat here, the Astros did just fine under the same circumstances in their last series. Facing San Francisco, who has permitted the least number of runs in MLB in 2021, they still scored an average of six runs/game. They average 5.8/game on the road, which is #1 in baseball. The Dodgers scored 13 times in a win Sunday over Arizona. So you should expect them to bounce back from just their fourth shutout loss of the season. Max Scherzer is making his Dodgers’ debut tonight. It will be interesting to see if there is an adjustment period. He arrives in LA with a 6.48 ERA in his last three starts. Even worse is Astros’ starter Jake Odorizzi as he has a 6.75 ERA his last three starts. Odorizzi’s last three starts have all gone Over. The Over is 35-17-5 when the Dodgers are coming off a loss. Play on OVER AAA |
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08-04-21 | Twins v. Reds OVER 9.5 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 14 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER The Twins and Reds will wrap up this very brief two-game series in an early afternoon affair. Last night saw the visitors prevail 7-5 as Jorge Polanco delivered a three-run homer in the top of the ninth. Minnesota, despite not playing with a DH, probably should have scored even more runs. But they were only 3 for 15 with runners in scoring position in the game. Still, the Over hit and high-scoring games at Great American Ballpark are nothing new. On average, Reds’ home games see 11.0 runs scored. They score 5.4 runs/contest themselves while giving up 5.6. No other park sees a higher average of runs/game scored, not even Coors Field. We look for the deluge of runs to continue on Getaway Day. Luis Castillo has engineered a remarkable turnaround for the Reds with a 1.95 ERA since June 1st. He had started the 2021 season with a 1-10 team start record. But two career starts vs. the Reds have brought Castillo a 16.20 ERA. Don’t be surprised if the Twins get to him. Starting here for the Twins will be Charlie Barnes. It’s just his second career big league start. The Over is 63-39-5 in all Twins’ games this year. That’s the highest Over percentage in baseball. Cincinnati isn’t far behind, in fifth place. The Over is 33-17-3 in Twins’ road games and 29-10-1 if they are the underdog, which is the case this afternoon. Six of their last seven games have gone Over. Play on OVER AAA |
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08-02-21 | Phillies v. Nationals UNDER 8.5 | Top | 7-5 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER These teams split a four-game series last week. The two games that the Phillies won also went Over. The two games the Nationals won both stayed Under. Washington followed that up by winning two of three from the Cubs with 7, 9 and 11 total runs being scored in those games. The Phillies followed up by losing two of three to the Pirates. They did score 15 runs in a win Sunday. But that was after scoring just two runs in the two previous games. The two starters for Monday have a combined one start between them in 2021. It comes from Washington’s Josiah Gray and that one start wasn’t even with his current team. Gray was just acquired from the Dodgers in a trade. He allowed two runs in four innings last week in what was his only start for his former team. He also made one relief appearance five days earlier. Gray is now the top pitching prospect in the Nationals organization. They must like him because he came over in the Scherzer/Turner deal. We believe he will pitch well tonight. Ranger Suarez is making his first start since 2018 for the Phillies. He’d recently been serving as the team’s closer. He’s made 27 appearances this year and has given up just nine runs (four of them unearned) and 21 hits. The Under is on a 21-10-3 run when these NL East teams meet. Play on UNDER AAA |
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08-01-21 | A's v. Angels UNDER 9.5 | Top | 8-3 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER To say runs have been “scarce” in this series would be an understatement. The A’s and Angels have played three games this weekend. A grand total of seven runs have been scored between them. The first six all came from Oakland as they won 4-0 on Thursday and 2-0 on Friday. Then the scoring decreased to the lowest point possible with the Angels winning 1-0 yesterday. Will scoring go up a bit today? Most likely. But we still don’t see more than nine runs being scored in this game. There is an “unknown factor” on the mound Sunday as Reid Detmers makes his major league debut for Los Angeles and Daulton Jefferies makes only his second career big league start for Oakland. Jefferies prior start at this level came last year. He got the call up from Triple A Las Vegas due to an injury to James Kaprielian. The Angels scored only two runs on A’s pitching in five July meetings. Oakland scored 16 runs in those five games, which sounds like a lot compared to what LA did, but it’s really not that much. Detmers looked good in both Double-A and Triple-A this year and has improved his fastball velocity. He had 106 strikeouts in 60 innings. The Under is 6-0 in the A’s last six Sunday games. Play on UNDER AAA |
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07-31-21 | Reds v. Mets OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the OVER Mets’ home games have been REALLY low scoring in 2021. You’re looking at just 6.2 total runs being scored per contest. Last night was a little higher scoring than usual though as the Reds spoiled the season debut of Carlos Carrasco. Much of the way it looked like your typical game at Citi Field as the Reds took a 3-1 lead into the ninth. But then the scoring doubled in the final inning and the game ended up 6-2. Joey Votto has homered in seven straight games for Cincinnati. The Reds are averaging 6.3 runs over their last seven games and have scored at least five times in eight straight games. Rich Hill, recently acquired in a trade with Tampa Bay, will be making his second start as a Met on Saturday. The first went okay as he permitted three runs in five innings. The Mets won the game 5-4, which would be enough runs to cash an Over today. The Reds, whose pitching is normally not good, will send out Wade Miley. Don’t be fooled by his ERA as he’s actually given up 21 hits in his last three starts as well as 10 walks. None of the Reds last six games have stayed Under (two have pushed). Play on OVER AAA |
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07-30-21 | Rockies v. Padres UNDER 8 | Top | 9-4 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 45 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER Heading into yesterday, both these teams were coming off series where every game went Over. But those series were against American League opponents. In the case of Colorado, they were on the road, so they got to play with a DH. Yesterday’s 3-0 win by the Padres marked a return to form for both teams. When the Rockies are on the road and NOT getting to use a DH, the results at the plate are typically pretty dire. They are putting up just 3.1 runs/contest away from Coors Field this year. As a team, they have hit .210 in those games. That is clearly the predominant reason for their 11-39 road record. As for San Diego, shutting out the Rockies yesterday was not all that special. Visitors are putting up only 3.7 runs/contest at Petco Park this season. In their last four games here, the Rockies have scored a total of eight times. They’ve actually won two of those four games though as the Padres have also scored a total of eight times. The Under is 4-0 in those four games obviously and you should expect it to come in again tonight. Jon Gray has had a nice six-start stretch for Colorado. One of those six starts saw him limit San Diego to one run and three hits in six innings. Gray has a 2.99 career ERA vs. SD and has limited them to a .227 average this season. Ryan Weathers opposed Gray back on July 11th and that ended up being a 3-1 final. Weathers again opposes Gray today. He’s since thrown four shutout innings vs. Miami on 7/24. Play on UNDER AAA |
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07-30-21 | Orioles v. Tigers UNDER 9.5 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER After scoring twice in the first inning last night, Detroit never looked back and ended up beating Baltimore 6-2. The Tigers have now won three in a row and are within five games of .500. The Orioles are 31 games below the Mendoza line and simply playing out the string. They had won four of five coming into this series, but all of those games were against National League teams and at home. They’ve given up a lot of runs in 2021, more than any other AL team in fact, but Detroit isn’t likely to score more than they did here last night. Matt Harvey, believe it or not, has been pretty good for B-more of late. He’s allowed no runs in his last two starts, both of which were six-inning efforts. He’s only allowed four hits and one walk! Skubal will pitch tonight for the Tigers and he’s got a 0.94 WHIP his last three starts. The Orioles got just 29 at-bats last night (which is two more than the minimum) and had only four hits. The last time Skubal pitched at home, he allowed one run in six innings. His last three starts have all gone Under and that doesn’t even count a start here at home on 6/27 when he held Houston (MLB’s highest scoring team) to one hit in seven innings. The Under is on a 7-3-1 run for the Tigers if they scored 5 or more runs in the last game. Play on UNDER AAA |
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07-29-21 | Yankees v. Rays UNDER 7.5 | Top | 0-14 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 46 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER Both games in this series have gone Under as have the Yankees' last six games overall and the Rays’ last four. In the six game stretch for New York, they have never scored more than four runs. As we’ve previously talked about (we had the Under in Tuesday’s game), NY is one of the lowest scoring clubs in the American League. Only Texas has scored less runs over the duration of the season. Tampa Bay has scored a combined six runs in the last three games. They had only three hits Wednesday in a game that was 1-1 heading into the 10th. (Yankees won 3-1). Gerrit Cole will be starting Thursday’s game. We can probably count on him keeping the Rays in check based on a 2.74 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. Over his last three starts, Cole has 31 strikeouts and has allowed just four runs in 20 innings. One of those was a complete game shutout at Houston. Back on May 12th, Cole didn’t allow any runs when he faced the Rays, limiting them to just three hits in eight innings. Yesterday the Rays had just four at-bats with runners in scoring position. It’s probably up to Luis Patino to keep Tampa Bay in this game. Fortunately for him and the Rays, the game is at home. In three previous home starts, Patino’s ERA is 1.04. Play on UNDER AAA |
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07-28-21 | Braves v. Mets UNDER 8 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Over their last six games, Atlanta has scored two or less runs four times. They won just one of those games. There have also been two games where they scored 12 and 15 times. The 12 came last night, quadrupling the number of runs scored from the previous three games combined. They played a doubleheader against the Mets on Monday. Those games ended up being 2-0 in favor of Atlanta and 1-0 in favor of the Mets. While doubleheader games are only now seven innings, we also know that Mets’ home games on average are very low scoring. This was discussed in our 10* Total of the Week release on Monday. They are putting up only 3.5 runs/contest, but allow only 2.7. This Tylor Megill has been a bit of a revelation in the starting rotation. In six starts he has a 2.10 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. He has a 12-inning scoreless streak going and has allowed only two runs total in his last four starts. So the Braves offensive numbers should nosedive tonight. Remember they lost Ronald Acuna Jr for the year. The Mets don’t score much either and Max Fried has a 2.80 ERA in 15 career starts against them. Play on UNDER AAA |
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07-28-21 | A's v. Padres UNDER 8.5 | Top | 10-4 | Loss | -112 | 8 h 48 m | Show |
This is an 8 * on UNDER The Padres were able to beat the Athletics 7-4 on Tuesday. The series wraps up this afternoon and we think this matinee will be a lower-scoring game compared to the opener. The home team used a 5-run fifth inning to get the ‘W’ yesterday. Getting another big inning like that will be much more difficult here as they face Sean Manaea. The Under is 7-1-1 in Manaea road starts and he’s put together a 2.94 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in those nine games. His season-long numbers got even better after his last start where he struck out 13 and gave up just one run on three hits. Oakland won that game 4-1 over Seattle. That’s also the last time they won a game. Four straight losses have seen them score just 14 runs. They have scored no more than four times in eight of their last nine games. The struggles at the plate are likely to continue as they come up to bat today without the DH. San Diego is allowing just 3.6 runs/contest at home. They’ve got Blake Snell going and he’s 6-1 at Petco Park with a 1.43 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. Six of those seven starts have stayed Under. Snell also allowed just one run and three hits in his last start. If there is a saving grace for Oakland here it’s that they only give up 3.8 runs/contest on the road. The Under is 13-3 if they allowed five or more runs in the last game. Play on UNDER AAA |
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07-27-21 | Rockies v. Angels UNDER 9 | Top | 12-3 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER Colorado simply can’t score (or win) on the road. It’s really gotten embarrassing. Yesterday’s 6-2 loss in Anaheim was an all-too familiar result for Rockies fans, whose team is 10-37 away from home where it averages 2.9 runs/game. The struggles outside Coors Field are nothing new for the franchise, but this season seems to be a new low. We have no reason to expect they’ll score many runs tonight either. They have not scored more than three times in six of the last seven road games. They have crossed the plate only four times in the last three. But maybe Austin Gomber can keep them in the game Tuesday. Gomber has pitched very well this season as he has a 2.31 ERA and 0.74 WHIP in his previous seven starts. He was 3-0 with a 1.29 ERA in June. He’s made only one start this month because of forearm tightness. That one start did see him allow three solo shots. But those were the only runs he allowed. Jose Suarez is making his 4th start for the Angels here. The previous three all stayed Under. The Under is 20-7 in the Rockies’ last 27 games. Two southpaws going in an interleague game should equal a low-scoring output. Play on UNDER AAA |
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07-27-21 | Yankees v. Rays UNDER 8 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER The AL East is the only division where four teams have won at least 51% of their games. Tampa Bay is 60-40 and sitting in second place, 1.5 games behind Boston. They’ve allowed fewer runs than all their division rivals. The Yankees are tied (with Baltimore) for last in the division in runs scored. There’s only one team in the whole American League that has scored less runs than New York and that’s Texas. Similarly, there’s only one team in the whole AL that’s allowed fewer runs than the Rays and that’s the White Sox. The Yankees have gone Under in four straight, scoring all of 14 runs in those games. The number of runs allowed per game at home by the Rays is only 3.2 with the opponents batting average just .207. While this sounds like a big edge going to the Rays tonight, Jordan Montgomery figures to keep the visitors alive. The Yankees’ left-hander has a 2.94 ERA and 0.82 WHIP in his last three starts. The Under is 3-0. He’s given up no more than three runs in 10 of his last 11 starts. For the Rays, Shane McClanahan has allowed only one run in back to back starts. He’s given up no more than three runs in 12 of his 14 starts this year. Look for this to be a low-scoring affair. Play on UNDER AAA |
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07-26-21 | Braves v. Mets UNDER 6.5 | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER The first game of today’s doubleheader between the Braves and Mets figures to be a pretty low-scoring affair. Remember that we’re playing only just seven innings here, which is why the total is so “low.” The Mets have the division lead and are up by five games over Atlanta coming into today. The weekend saw the NL East leaders take two of three from Toronto while the Braves split a four-game series in Philadelphia. Atlanta has alternated wins and losses since the break, going 4-5 overall. They lost 2-1 Sunday, marking the fourth time in six games they failed to score more than two runs. Scoring more than two in this first game might prove difficult as they are set to face Marcus Stroman, who threw eight shutout innings in his last start, which was against a Reds lineup that is pretty strong. Stroman allowed only one hit for the game. There have been only five times this season where Stroman allowed more than three runs and this game will be shorter than usual. Three of the five times he allowed more than three runners to score, runs were unearned. Mets’ home games average just 6.1 total runs. The Under is 7-1 in Stroman home starts. Kyle Muller has a 2.41 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in four starts for Atlanta, so look for a low-scoring game all-around. Play on UNDER AAA |
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07-25-21 | Pirates v. Giants UNDER 7.5 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 101 | 7 h 20 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER San Francisco is looking to avoid what would be a very surprising sweep on Sunday. It’s not just that they are at home and have the best win percentage in baseball. What makes the results of the last two days truly shocking is that they have lost to the Pirates, who have the fourth worst win percentage in all of baseball. A 10-2 score on Saturday caught us off-guard. Pittsburgh pounded out a season-high 16 hits and was one run away from matching a season high. It certainly stands to reason they’ll do worse at the plate today. The Bucs have scored the fewest number of runs in MLB. The Giants have given up the fewest number of runs per game. We will put our trust in Alex Wood today. Wood is unbeaten his past seven starts and he’s allowed a total of eight runs in the last four. He’s given up just one home run in those four starts. That’s one half of the equation. The other half is Pirates starter JT Brubaker keeping the Giants offense in check. We think that will happen too, even though Brubaker has struggled a bit recently. The Giants have gone five straight games with nine or fewer hits and they are 8-2 Under after scoring two runs or less the previous day. Play on UNDER AAA |
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