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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-02-21 | Baylor +4 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 14-24 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 9* on BAYLOR We’ll have one less undefeated team in the Big 12 after Saturday as 4-0 Baylor meets 4-0 Oklahoma State in Stillwater. Both are off their biggest wins of the season. Baylor upset Iowa State 31-29 in Waco. Oklahoma State beat Kansas State 31-20 here in its conference opener. Baylor has won two Big 12 games as it also went on the road and destroyed Kansas 45-7. OSU is much luckier to be 4-0 on the year as their first three wins were by a total of 13 points. Two of those three wins required comebacks. Baylor has beaten OSU in six of the last nine years but has revenge for an awful 42-3 loss at the end of last year when the game was rescheduled due to COVID-19 and the Bears probably didn’t care. So we will grab the points with what we feel has been the superior outfit to this point. The Cowboys have not scored a single second half point in the last two games. Baylor is on an 11-3-1 ATS run as underdogs. OK State has covered only one of its last five as home favorites. Play on BAYLOR AAA |
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10-02-21 | Syracuse v. Florida State -4.5 | Top | 30-33 | Loss | -120 | 24 h 59 m | Show |
This is an 8* on FSU How rare is it that 0-4 Florida State is favored over a Power 5 team with a winning record? This is the first time this situation has presented itself since 1988! Everything has gone wrong so far for the Seminoles as they’ve dropped three one score games. Syracuse is coming off a big upset at home against Liberty. It really does speak volumes that the oddsmakers still think FSU is the better team here. We’re with them and will lay the points. The Orange were a one-win team last season. They are 0-6 SU in ACC road openers. They are 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS at FSU. Besides upsetting Liberty, the other two wins this year were against Albany and Ohio. If FSU can cut down on the turnovers (they have 11 so far) then they can turn things around. Those six home wins over Syracuse have been by an average of 26 points/game. Mike Norvell gets his 1st win of the year by a margin greater than the spread. Play on FSU AAA |
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10-02-21 | Michigan +2.5 v. Wisconsin | Top | 38-17 | Win | 100 | 21 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MICHIGAN Much will be made of the fact Michigan did not score in the second half last week against Rutgers. But despite that, and being slightly outgained, the Wolverines still won the game 20-13 and are 4-0. They have not turned the ball over once and lead the nation in rushing. They are simply better than an underachieving Wisconsin team that has only put up 10 and 13 points in losses to Penn State and Notre Dame. We patently disagree with Michigan being underdogs here. They’ve yet to allow more than 14 points in any game. The Wolverines are ranked 14th in the country and Wisconsin has lost seven straight to ranked opponents. The Badgers just don’t take good care of the football. They have nine turnovers in three games, five coming last week. Wisconsin is 2-6 ATS the last eight times it has been favored and is 0-5 ATS its last five conference games. Play on MICHIGAN AAA |
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10-02-21 | Toledo -27 v. UMass | Top | 45-7 | Win | 100 | 20 h 29 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TOLEDO Toledo is 2-2. That’s a slight disappointment as they were double digit favorites in a loss to Colorado State. But the other loss saw them take Notre Dame down to the wire in South Bend. This week, the Rockets travel to face one of the worst teams in the country, UMass. The Minutemen have lost every game by at least 14 points. They have been underdogs of more than 35 points in three of the four games. A home game vs. Eastern Michigan, another MAC team, was the exception. Toledo is better than EMU, who could only win here by 14. The Rockets averaged 6.2 yards per rush last week against Ball State. The only time this Toledo defense has allowed more than 22 points was Notre Dame. Take away a special teams touchdown by Colorado State and the defense has “really” allowed 15 points or less three times. UMass is off a 50 point loss to Coastal Carolina. They scored only three points and it was their 15th straight loss. They are 1-19 SU L20 games and only covered six times. Play on TOLEDO AAA |
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09-30-21 | Virginia v. Miami-FL -5.5 | Top | 30-28 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MIAMI FL Quarterback is a question mark for Miami coming into the ACC opener vs. Virginia. D’Eriq King is still dealing with a shoulder injury that caused him to miss last week’s game vs. Central Connecticut State. However, the combination of Tyler Van Dyke and Jake Garcia led the Hurricanes to 69 points and 739 yards. You’re probably saying “well, look at who they were playing.” Yes, it’s true those numbers came against a FCS team. But Virginia’s defense might not be much better. It gave up nearly 700 yards in a 59-39 loss to North Carolina, then it allowed 473 in a 37-17 loss to Wake Forest last Thursday. This is the third straight year that the Cavaliers are visiting Hard Rock Stadium. The offense put up only 9 and 14 points in a pair of losses the last two seasons. Now they’re going to score more than that here. Their QB Brennan Armstrong has been very good. But not good enough to overcome a terrible defense. Miami is getting back RB Jaylan Knighton from a four-game suspension. Virginia has not been a good road team the last few seasons. If King plays for Miami, just consider that a huge bonus. The Canes will cover the number no matter who is in at quarterback. Play on MIAMI FL AAA |
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09-25-21 | Colorado +14.5 v. Arizona State | Top | 13-35 | Loss | -120 | 47 h 45 m | Show |
This is an 8* on COLORADO Both Colorado and Arizona State are off losses. Colorado has lost its last two games and scored just seven points in doing so. But ASU is 0-3 ATS and one of the most penalized teams in the country, a bad combination when asked to lay double digits in a conference game. This spread should definitely be closer to one touchdown, not two. Herm Edwards’ Sun Devils started 2021 with Top 25 aspirations but those went out the window with last week’s poor showing against BYU. You would have thought BYU was in a bad situation as they were coming off an upset over rival Utah. But four ASU turnovers paved the way for the Cougars to make it two straight upsets over the Pac 12. Colorado’s offensive numbers from last week are going to scare a lot of bettors away but you’ve got to remember this team was very close to defeating Texas A&M two weeks ago. ASU is just 3-10 ATS as a favorite and 2-7 ATS at home since the start of 2019. Things can get pretty crazy “after dark” in the Pac 12. Why not here? Play on COLORADO AAA |
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09-25-21 | Nebraska +5 v. Michigan State | Top | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 43 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 9* on NEBRASKA So Michigan State is 3-0, which is something that no one outside of East Lansing expected. Twice so far Sparty has gone off as the underdog. They won at Northwestern in the season opener and then at Miami FL last week. Not to diminish what Mel Tucker is accomplishing here but Northwestern isn’t very good and Miami shot itself in the foot with two fourth quarter turnovers that turned a close 17-14 game into a 38-17 blowout. Sparty finished +4 in turnovers, which was the difference in a game where the number of total yards gained by the two teams was essentially even. The public now seems to have fallen in love with MSU as they are laying a short number at home to two-loss Nebraska. But the Cornhuskers should have beaten Illinois in the opener and then fared much better than expected last week against Oklahoma. They only lost 23-16 despite being 22.5 point underdogs to the #4 ranked team in the country. Since the opening week loss, QB Martinez has turned it over only one time and that was an incredible interception by Oklahoma’s D.J. Graham last week inside the 10-yard line. Had it not been for that play and a blocked XP that was returned for two points, the Cornhuskers could have beaten the Sooners. Nebraska has covered five of the last six times it has been off a loss and they are 8-1 ATS the L9 games vs. Michigan State. This will be the first time this year the Spartans are favored to beat an FBS opponent. They are 1-12 ATS in their last 13 games as a home favorite. Grab the points. Play on NEBRASKA AAA |
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09-25-21 | Kansas State +6 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 20-31 | Loss | -110 | 43 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 9* on KANSAS STATE Oklahoma State is 3-0 but has outscored opponents by only 13 points. They held on to beat Missouri State 23-16, barely escaped Tulsa and then won by one point at Boise State. The 28-23 win against Tulsa required three fourth quarter touchdowns. Boise State was another fourth quarter comeback as the Cowboys scored two touchdowns in the final 2:10 to win 21-20. Given all those close calls, we will gladly grab the points with Kansas State this week. The Wildcats are also 3-0 and now find themselves in the Top 25. They’ve beaten Stanford 24-7, Southern Illinois 31-23 and Nevada 38-17. Along the way they did lose QB Skylar Thompson to injury. But what’s key to winning this game is the Wildcats’ ability to stop the run. Their defense is giving up just 1.9 yards per rush attempt. OSU likes to run the ball, but probably won’t be too successful this week. Kansas State is 13-4 ATS in this rivalry going back to 1998. They’ve also done a great job covering the spread as underdogs. They are on a 44-22-1 ATS run when taking points. Oklahoma State has not covered any of the last four times it’s been favored in Stillwater. Grab those points. Play on KANSAS STATE AAA |
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09-25-21 | Colorado State v. Iowa -23 | Top | 14-24 | Loss | -110 | 40 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* on IOWA Iowa is looking very good this season. They’ve climbed up to #5 in the polls, its highest ranking in nearly six years. Kirk Ferentz’s defense has led the way by giving up only 30 points total in three games. Keep in mind they’ve already beaten two ranked P5 teams, Indiana and Iowa State, and did so convincingly. Here’s something else to consider - the Hawkeyes’ defense has scored the same number of touchdowns that it has allowed this season. That would be three. They also registered a safety last week against Kent State, which allowed them to cover the spread for the third consecutive game. This week they host a Colorado State team that’s 1-2 and averaging only 22 points despite facing Toledo, Vanderbilt and South Dakota State. After losing their first two games, both as favorites, the Rams beat Toledo 22-6 despite never scoring an offensive TD. They will struggle mightily on offense in this game. Perhaps we all should have seen Iowa coming now that they’ve won nine straight games overall and 14 straight non-conference games. The offense may not be as good as the defense but has gone over 24 points every time during the nine-game run. The defense hasn’t allowed more than 24 points in a game since 2018. Including last week, Iowa has covered three of the last four times it has been a favorite of 20 or more. Colorado State has never faced them before and will likely still wish that was the case after Saturday. The home team can name the score here. Play on IOWA AAA |
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09-25-21 | Texas Tech v. Texas -7.5 | Top | 35-70 | Win | 100 | 36 h 16 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TEXAS Most of the recent Texas-Texas Tech clashes have come down to the wire. We don’t think this one will. Even with all the close calls, like last year’s somewhat miraculous 63-56 win in overtime, the Longhorns have managed to still take 15 of the last 18 meetings from the Red Raiders. They’ve also won four straight Big 12 openers. This is the first conference game of 2021 for both teams. Texas Tech is the one that comes in unbeaten as they are 3-0 for the first time since 2017. But that’s what you’d expect them to be given who they’ve played (Houston, Stephen F Austin and FIU). The Red Raiders run defense has been stout against the inferior competition, but here you’ve got a Texas team that just ran the ball for over 400 yards last week against Rice. That was a much needed effort after the ‘Horns were corralled by Arkansas two weeks ago. But it turns out that Arkansas is pretty good. Losing to them 40-21 put a dent in Texas’ reputation but we still think they have a Top 25 team in Austin. The Longhorns allowed only 284 total yards in the 58-0 win over Rice last Saturday. Texas Tech has not won a true road game since 2019 and is just 1-9 SU in them under Matt Wells. This should be a double digit spread. Play on TEXAS AAA |
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09-24-21 | Middle Tennessee State +3 v. Charlotte | Top | 39-42 | Push | 0 | 31 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MIDDLE TENNESSEE Middle Tennessee is 1-2 with both losses coming on the road to FBS opponents. They opened 2021 by defeating Monmouth, an FCS school, 50-15 as 8.5 point favorites. But then came losses at Virginia Tech and UTSA, neither of which saw the Blue Raiders cover. Now those are two good teams they faced. Both are much better than the team they face this week. Charlotte started 2-0 but then lost last week at Georgia State. The 49ers could only score nine points, making you wonder what they did to deserve to be favored this week. They did upset Duke in the very first game, 31-28 as a 6.5 point pup. But they did give up 580 yards in that win. The other win for Charlotte came against Gardner-Webb, another FCS team. While this is the first time since 2009 that Middle Tennessee has had to play three straight games on the road, we predicted them to finish ahead of Charlotte in the Conference USA East Division. Therefore, an opportunity to take points is something we don’t dare pass up. These schools did not face off last season because of COVID. But MTSU has won four of the last five meetings. Play on MIDDLE TENNESSEE AAA |
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09-18-21 | Auburn +5.5 v. Penn State | Top | 20-28 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 4 m | Show |
This is an 8* on Auburn There are just two matchups of Top 25 teams on Saturday’s docket. One of them is #1 Alabama taking on #11 Florida, a game where most will be picking the same side to win. Later on, there’s a far more intriguing matchup as #22 Auburn faces #10 Penn State. Auburn is 2-0 having put up 122 points, the most in the country through two weeks. They’ve only allowed 10. While this is a big step up after playing the likes of Akron and Alabama State, we are going with the Tigers plus the points. Penn State had the win over Wisconsin, but they only scored 16 points and were greatly aided by three Badgers’ turnovers. We had the Under last week when they hosted Ball State. Again, the Nittany Lions defense dominated. They allowed 13 points and 295 yards. It was an easy 44-13 win and yes, the Under did cash. It will not be easy against Auburn. With the exception of Ohio State, this could be the best offense Penn State sees all season. There are already 11 different Auburn receivers with a reception of 10 or more yards. The team’s two star running backs - Tank Bigsby and Jarquez Hunter - have each gone over 100 yards in both games so far. But Auburn can also play a little defense. They’ve given up just 43 total rush yards so far. Do you have to consider the level of opposition? Absolutely. But you also have to consider the Tigers have won and covered seven straight games in the month of September. We’ll take the points. Play on AUBURN AAA |
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09-18-21 | East Carolina v. Marshall -9.5 | Top | 42-38 | Loss | -110 | 43 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MARSHALL East Carolina is 0-2. They’ve opened the season with losses to Appalachian State and South Carolina. The Pirates were underdogs in both games and did not cover either. They were home dogs last week in a 20-17 loss to South Carolina. Before that, it was a nine-point spread in Boone. It’s a near identical spread this week as ECU visits Marshall. The problem for the Pirates in this game is two-fold. One, the Thundering Herd again look like they have a tremendous defense. Last year saw them lead the country in stopping the run and points allowed. You can’t get much better than that. They gave up 96 yards/game on the ground and allowed only 13.0 points/game. This year, for a new head coach, the number of points they’ve allowed in two games is 17. The Herd did allow a ton of rushing yards to Navy, however that is understandable. They were back to their old selves last week when the number of yards they allowed on the ground was just 71 on 27 carries. The other problem that East Carolina will have Saturday is that Marshall’s offense looks a lot better than it did in 2020. They’ve put up 93 points in two games. Grant Wells is completing over 70 percent of his passes. East Carolina is a team that has just five FBS wins since 2019. It’s Mike Houston’s third year in Greenville, but still his team is not adequate enough to contend with a proven bunch like Marshall. The loss to South Carolina was a heartbreaker as the Pirates blew a 14-0 lead and watched as a last second field goal sailed through the uprights for the Gamecocks. Marshall is 2-0 despite six turnovers. On the 50th anniversary of the “Young Thundering Herd” team, the current Thundering Herd will make the alumni proud. Play on MARSHALL AAA |
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09-18-21 | Mississippi State v. Memphis +3.5 | Top | 29-31 | Win | 100 | 25 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 9* on MEMPHIS There are some real “funny” lines this Saturday and this is definitely one of them. Mississippi State struggled for three quarters against Louisiana Tech before escaping with a 35-34 win. Then they pulled out a surprise 24-10 over North Carolina State as two-point home underdogs, a game where the difference was clearly three Wolfpack turnovers. Well, three turnovers + an opening kick return for a touchdown. Don’t think the Bulldogs will be that lucky again when they play their first road game of 2021 against a Memphis team that has not lost at the Liberty Bowl since 2018. The Tigers are also 2-0 with wins over Nicholls State and Arkansas State. The second game was a real barn burner with both teams scoring 50 points and gaining 680 yards. But Memphis put up 55 and held on for the victory. The final margin of victory wasn’t enough to cover the spread, however you should be aware that the Tigers allowed two late touchdowns after leading by double digits most of the game. Memphis is 4-0 ATS as a home dog since 2017 including upsets of UCF and Houston last season. They lead the nation in total offense right now at 634.5 yards/game and QB Henigan, a true freshman, looks to be the real deal. The “Air Raid” will not be the most explosive offense on the field Saturday. Take the points. Play on MEMPHIS AAA |
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09-18-21 | Virginia Tech +2.5 v. West Virginia | Top | 21-27 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 13 m | Show |
This is an 8* on VA TECH Not sure we understand this line. Virginia Tech is off to a 2-0 start for Justin Fuente, which includes a 17-10 upset over then #10 North Carolina. The Hokies came into that game as 5.5 point underdogs, so it was a really impressive win. Their second SU win was much more comfortable as they defeated Middle Tennessee by a score of 35-14. But it was also a lot closer as far as the point spread was concerned (they were -20). Now they are dogs again, this time on the road, as they go to Morgantown for the first time since 2005. West Virginia has yet to beat an FBS team this year as they lost to Maryland 30-24 two weeks ago, getting outplayed in the process. The fact WVU won 66-0 last week means next to nothing as they played an FCS school. These schools haven’t met since 2017, but the Hokies hold a 15-5 ATS edge going back to 1987 and haven’t lost to the Mountaineers since 2003. When an unranked team is favored by three points or less over a Top 15 opponent, go ahead and fade the chalk as they are just 8-18-2 ATS in that situation the past 20 years. West Virginia running back Leddie Brown is averaging just 3.3 yards/carry so far and will struggle to find space against Fuente’s defense. Virginia Tech has lost only once with Braxton Burmeister, now a junior, as the starting QB. We will gladly take the points and expect an outright win. Play on VIRGINIA TECH AAA |
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09-16-21 | Ohio v. UL-Lafayette -20 | Top | 14-49 | Win | 100 | 20 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LOUISIANA Ohio U looks to be in major trouble in Tim Albin’s first year at the helm. The Bobcats will take an 0-2 record to Lafayette, Louisiana as they take on the 1-1 Ragin Cajuns Thursday night at Cajun Field. Louisiana began the year ranked #23, but lost to Texas 38-18 in the opening game. That score has since gotten a bit more embarrassing with the Longhorns getting blown out at Arkansas last week. But that wasn’t the Ragin Cajuns’ fault. Now it also doesn’t look good that they could only beat Nicholls State by a field goal last week. But that final score was misleading in the sense that the Ragin Cajuns led by 17 with just over five minutes to go. This is a team that has won 22 of its previous 27 games. They are in a much better place now than Ohio. New coach Albin saw his team lose the opener at home to Syracuse by a score of 29-9. Then the Bobcats were stuffed on a two-point conversion attempt at the end of the game last week against Duquesne. That’s a home loss to a FCS foe where they were 28.5 point favorites. Not only that, the Bobcats were outgained and trailed by double digits in the fourth quarter. Albin took over on somewhat short notice when Frank Solich surprisingly announced his retirement over the summer. Ohio is usually one of the better MAC teams but is clearly prepared to take a step back this year. Louisiana wins big here. Play on LOUISIANA AAA |
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09-11-21 | Stanford +17.5 v. USC | Top | 42-28 | Win | 100 | 24 h 11 m | Show |
This is an 8* on STANFORD Stanford’s first game didn’t go so well. The Cardinal lost 24-7 at Kansas State as three-point underdogs. The offense didn’t do much and the defense was consistently put in poor positions. The loss leaves David Shaw just 8-11 straight up and 6-13 against the spread in his last 19 games. The Cardinal are just 3-8 SU/ATS as underdogs during that time. But they hope for better results this week when they open the Pac 12 schedule “after dark” against USC. The Trojans were 30-7 winners over San Jose State in Week 1. While the offense had some red zone breakdowns, the defense helped them out by forcing some early turnovers. This is a lot of points to lay in a conference game, especially one so early in the season. In their last 25 games as a double digit favorite, Southern Cal is 11-13-1 against the spread and five of the victories on the field have been by five points or less. It’s not hard to see them “playing down” to the level of competition following a 23-point victory last week. Total yardage with San Jose State was pretty even. Stanford knows the USC coaching staff well. Shaw is making a QB change to Tanner McKee, who was better after coming on in relief of Jack West against Kansas State. The teams didn’t play last year but Stanford has covered five of the last seven matchups. Play on STANFORD AAA |
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09-11-21 | Texas -7 v. Arkansas | Top | 21-40 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TEXAS Arkansas has done a good job at covering the spread when they are the underdog. They are 10-3 against the spread the last 13 times they’ve gotten points from the oddsmakers. Three different times last year, the Razorbacks went into a game as the dog and walked away with an outright win. But this is Texas they are facing in Week 2. The Longhorns won by 20 last week (38-18) over a Louisiana team that was ranked #23. They never trailed. Now the ‘Horns are up to #15 themselves. Don’t think for a second they won’t be looking to make a statement here against their old SWC - and future SEC rival. Arkansas was not nearly as impressive in Week 1 as they trailed Rice at halftime before going on a 21-0 run in the fourth quarter. Each of those three fourth quarter touchdowns were off Rice turnovers. Texas is not going to be in such a giving mood. KJ Jefferson and the Hogs' passing game really struggled last week. They gained only 128 yards through the air. Arkansas isn’t going to be able to run the ball here like they did in the first game. The Texas’ defense gave up just 76 yards rushing to Louisiana - on 29 carries. Their offense also looked good. RB Robinson is one of the very best in the country. The Razorbacks will struggle to stop him and won’t be forcing the same number of turnovers they did vs. Rice. Texas has covered five straight on the non-conference slate and is also 4-1 ATS their last five times as a road favorite. Arkansas is 0-8 ATS the previous eight times they have been off a win of more than 20 points. Play on TEXAS AAA |
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09-11-21 | Wyoming -7 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 50-43 | Push | 0 | 15 h 15 m | Show |
This is an 8* on WYOMING Don’t overreact too much to Northern Illinois’ upset win at Georgia Tech last week. Though the Huskies came out ahead by a point in a contest where they were 19-point underdogs, they gained fewer yards than they gave up and needed a late touchdown plus two-point conversion to seal the upset. This is a team that didn’t win a single game in 2020 (0-6 SU). They were also fortunate that Georgia Tech lost its starting quarterback in the second quarter. Backup Jordan Yates led three touchdown drives against the NIU defense. So look for Wyoming to move the ball more effectively than they did last week vs. Montana State when they also needed a last-minute touchdown to get the victory. Northern Illinois did give up 286 yards rushing to Georgia Tech last week. Wyoming has an excellent running back in Xazavian Valladay, who figure to get more carries this week. We think it is worth noting that while Northern Illinois was a 19-point underdog last week, Wyoming was a 19-point favorite. This game is in DeKalb, but the line is too short in our estimation. The road team has covered the last six times it has been off an ATS loss. Should be a double digit win for the Cowboys on Saturday. Lay it! Play on WYOMING AAA |
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09-10-21 | UTEP +26 v. Boise State | Top | 13-54 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UTEP UTEP is already 2-0 on the young season. Now those wins were against New Mexico State and Bethune Cookman, the worst FBS team and a FCS team. But at last the Miners have some confidence as they travel to the blue turf in Boise, ID Friday night. Boise State’s season began with a painful 36-31 loss at UCF last Thursday. It was a game the Broncos led much of the way, including 21-0 early in the second quarter. They got an early 100-yard pick-six to start the scoring and it wasn’t until late in the third quarter that they fell behind. But the Broncos were outgained significantly, 573-283, and if you take away the pick-six then really the game wouldn’t have been that competitive. UTEP isn’t Central Florida, but should be able to move the ball enough to stay within the huge number tonight. This is easily Dana Dimel’s best team in his four year in El Paso and his most experienced. The Miners had just five wins his first three years, three of those coming last season. Now they are off to a 2-0 start and building confidence. Boise State has a new coach in Andy Avalos while coming off their worst offensive season in 25 years. Blowing a three touchdown lead on the road last week did not do wonders for the Broncos’ confidence. They gained just 59 total yards in the second half. UTEP has good wide receivers and should be able to attack a suspect secondary. We are taking the points in this matchup. Play on UTEP AAA |
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09-05-21 | Notre Dame -7 v. Florida State | Top | 41-38 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ND Notre Dame beat Florida State last season 42-26. The Fighting Irish failed to cover though as they were massive 21-point favorites in South Bend. Now they are set to invade Tallahassee for the first time since 2014. We know the Irish have their doubters heading into the season and people want to believe in FSU. But ND has gone 33-5 straight up the past three seasons. Florida State is just 14-20. The gap between the two storied programs isn’t as tight as these odds seem to indicate. Keep in mind that it’s been an absolutely wretched weekend so far for the ACC with Clemson and North Carolina both losing and Miami getting crushed by Bama. Florida State isn’t one of the better ACC teams and hasn’t been in awhile. They’ve got major question marks on both sides of the ball. The defense allowed almost 200 yards rushing per game in 2020. On offense, no starting QB has been announced. FSU beat only two FBS teams last year. Notre Dame was in the CFP. Jack Coan, who transferred over from Wisconsin to be the Fighting Irish’s new QB, is 12-6 SU in his collegiate career as a starter. Notre Dame is by far the more talented of these two teams. Play on NOTRE DAME AAA |
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09-04-21 | LSU -2.5 v. UCLA | Top | 27-38 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 17 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LSU UCLA has a game under its belt. Chip Kelly probably couldn’t have asked for it to go any better. His Bruins jumped out to a 24-3 lead after the first quarter and never looked back. It ended up 44-10 when all was said and done. The key was a Hawaii implosion. The Warriors unsuccessfully went for it on fourth down on their very first possession. That led to a quick UCLA field goal. Later in the quarter was a fumble deep in Hawaii’s own territory. The Bruins immediately cashed that one in for a TD. In the fourth quarter, with the game already out of reach, the Bruins recovered a blocked punt in the end zone. Don’t expect #16 LSU to be as giving. After winning a National Championship in 2019, the Tigers fell back down to Earth with a 5-5 record last season. Like UCLA, LSU should bounce back from a disappointing season. The defensive line has far more depth. It took almost the whole year, but in the third to last game of last year, Ed Orgeron finally found his QB. It’s Max Johnson, now a sophomore, who led the Tigers to wins in the final two games. The LSU offense put up 37 and 53 points in those two wins. Lost in the final score of last week is that UCLA QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson completed just half of his passes for 130 yards. That won’t come close to cutting it here. LSU was able to escape Irma and practiced in Houston during the week. They’ll be on the West Coast to practice by Friday. Play on LSU AAA |
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09-04-21 | Fresno State v. Oregon -20 | Top | 24-31 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 47 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OREGON Oregon will have to be careful here as they’ve got a date with Ohio State next week. Fresno State played a game last week. They crushed UConn 45-0. But you don’t need us to tell you that Oregon is a big step up from a team that didn’t even play competitive football in 2020. The Ducks are ranked #11 in the country. They’ve won the Pac 12 each of the last two seasons. Fresno State has not faced a ranked opponent since the 2018 season. The Bulldogs will have plenty of difficulty stopping the run this week as Oregon’s RB duo of Verdell and Dye have 4,363 career yards rushing between them. That’s the most returning yards of any backfield in the country. The offensive line that they’ll be running behind is experienced. Oregon has won its last 12 games at Autzen Stadium and 26 home games in a row when facing a non-conference foe. Don’t look past the fact that Fresno State’s QB had to leave last week’s game with cramping in the third quarter. Oregon may have the best edge rusher in the nation in Kayvon Thibodeaux. Not even having to lay three touchdowns at Autzen seems like a steal to us. The Ducks are going to be very good this season and haven’t lost to Fresno State since 1982. Play on OREGON AAA |
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09-02-21 | Ohio State -13.5 v. Minnesota | Top | 45-31 | Win | 100 | 54 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OHIO STATE Ohio State owns the Big Ten in much the same way Clemson owns the Atlantic Coast Conference. Over the last nine seasons, the Buckeyes have won 74 of 79 conference games. They are an obvious favorite to win the league again in 2021. They will be breaking in a new quarterback, CJ Stroud, who replaces Justin Fields. We don’t think that’s going to be a problem. Stroud has Ryan Day calling the plays and the best set of receivers in the country to throw to. You’ve got Master Teague and TreVeyon Henderson at running back. The Buckeyes averaged over 500 yards and 40 points per game last season. They’ll probably do it again this year. Making life even scarier for the rest of the Big 10 is the likely improvement of the Buckeyes' defense from last year. They weren’t particularly good against the pass, but the secondary now has more experience. Minnesota only has the seventh best odds of winning the conference and it honestly feels as if the gap between 1 and 2 is larger than between 2 and 7. The Golden Gophers were just 3-4 SU last year and really have no hope of winning this game. The last time they beat Ohio State was in the year 2000 and that’s the only win in the series since 1981. Ohio State has not lost a season opener this century and have covered six of the last eight times they’ve been road favorites. Minnesota is not Alabama, the team the Buckeyes lost to in the CFP Championship Game. They are a Big 10 opponent and that means you should expect a big OSU win. Play on OHIO STATE AAA |
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09-02-21 | South Florida +19 v. NC State | Top | 0-45 | Loss | -118 | 53 h 3 m | Show |
This is an 8* on USF South Florida comes into Thursday’s opener against North Carolina State as a big underdog. But we think the Bulls are getting far too many points here. NC State did go 8-4 last year. But they were 4-8 the year before that. They were 8-4 in 2020 despite scoring only 13 more points than they allowed. The Wolfpack were also underdogs in over half of last year’s games. They were favored by double digits only twice and covered just one. We know there’s a decent amount of returning starters for Dave Doeren. However, this is simply not a team we’re interested in laying a lot of points with, especially in the first game. Jeff Scott may not have had a great first year at USF, going just 1-8, but his Bulls covered five times. Two of the losses were within a field goal. The defense will be better this year (how could it not?) and nine transfers were added via the portal. Do we think the Bulls can win this game? Absolutely not. But NC State seems overvalued. Grab the points. Play on SOUTH FLORIDA AAA |
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08-28-21 | Nebraska v. Illinois +7 | Top | 22-30 | Win | 100 | 66 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ILLINOIS Betting this number early feels good, but we still feel very confident in Illinois plus the points in the Big 10 opener. Brett Bielema inherited a team that really didn’t do much under Lovie Smith. The Fighting Illini project to be the last place team in the Big 10 West this year, but they should be more competitive under Bielema. They beat Nebraska last season 41-23 as 17-point underdogs. Now the Cornhuskers are facing potential NCAA sanctions before the 2021 season even starts. The threat of sanctions puts already embattled head coach Scott Frost even more squarely on the hot seat. The ‘Huskers were only 3-5 a year ago. Just one win was by more than seven points. The program is 5-11 ATS as a favorite under Frost. Overall they’ve won only 12 of 32 games straight up. So to lay points with them on the conference road, in the first game of the season, seems foolish. QB Martinez has been far too inconsistent throughout his career. The defense gave up 29.4 points/game in 2020. Illinois has 18 starters back and you should look for the defensive front seven to be much improved. Gotta grab the points in this one. Play on ILLINOIS AAA |
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01-11-21 | Ohio State +8 v. Alabama | Top | 24-52 | Loss | -105 | 198 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OHIO STATE We thought the Alabama-Notre Dame spread was too high and got a “back door” cover there. Similarly, we think this spread is too high. Ohio State played a remarkable game vs. Clemson, jumping all over the Tigers in the first half and beating them 49-28. This is a team that has not lost and has scored 38 or more in every game but one. Obviously, Covid is a concern for the Buckeyes going into this CFP Championship Game as is the health of QB Fields. But we still seem them sticking with the Crimson Tide. Don’t forget Nick Saban’s defense gave up 46 points in the SEC Championship Game. Buckeyes RB Trey Sermon is the key as he’s gone for more than 500 yards in the last two games. Back in 2014, a OSU team that wasn’t given much of a chance beat Bama 42-35 in the semifinal. The Buckeyes are as talented as any team in the country and not an underdog very often. The Clemson line never should have been that big. This one should be under a touchdown. OSU is 19-7 ATS L26 as a dog including 5-2 in the bowls. Alabama is just 1-4 ATS its last five bowl games. Play on OHIO STATE AAA |
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01-02-21 | North Carolina v. Texas A&M -7 | Top | 27-41 | Win | 100 | 52 h 2 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TEXAS A&M The Orange Bowl pits 8-3 North Carolina against 8-1 Texas A&M. The 5th ranked Aggies were the 1st team “left out” of the College Football Playoff and we believe they will take their frustrations out on a Tar Heels team that may very well be “just happy to be here.” It’s been awhile since UNC was in a major bowl game like this. Don’t worry about laying the number as A&M is 7-1 - both straight up and against the spread - as a 3.5 to 10 point favorite the last three seasons. Over the same time period, North Carolina is 1-10 SU when an underdog in that same point range. The Tar Heels defense can be shaky as it allowed 44 or more points three times in the regular season. They did not face Clemson, but did face Notre Dame and in that game the offense was held to a season-low 17 points. Other than that game, the schedule wasn’t very tough. Texas A&M had to run the SEC gauntlet and their only loss was to Alabama. They are on a six-game win streak with all six wins coming by at least 11 points. The Aggies have a huge edge defensively in this matchup as they are allowing just 21.1 points/game and that number gets a lot lower when you factor out Alabama and Florida. Six times they held their opponents under 21 points. Lay it. Play on TEXAS A&M AAA |
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01-01-21 | Notre Dame +20 v. Alabama | Top | 14-31 | Win | 100 | 94 h 12 m | Show |
This is an 8* on NOTRE DAME The Rose Bowl is in Arlington, TX this year and Alabama is a monster favorite over Notre Dame in the first of the two CFP semifinals. While we do expect the Crimson Tide to win this game, look for the Fighting Irish to score enough to cover the spread. Bama just gave up 46 points (to Florida) in the SEC Championship Game. While Notre Dame got held to 10 points in the ACC Championship Game, they had scored at least 31 in six straight and eight of nine before that. This is a truly massive spread and while ND probably isn’t in the same league as Alabama, we find it hard to believe they should be this large of an underdog against ANYONE. Taking on Clemson at a neutral site, they were only 11-point dogs. Yes, they were blown out, but that’s led to a real overadjustment from the oddsmakers. The Irish are 6-3 ATS the last nine times they’ve been a double digit dog (goes way back, to 2008). For all the talk of Nick Saban in big games, Bama is only 3-6 ATS its L9 CFP games and 0-3 ATS the last three. This is the third highest spread in bowl HISTORY (not just the CFP). We simply HAVE to take the points. Play on NOTRE DAME AAA |
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12-31-20 | Mississippi State v. Tulsa -2.5 | Top | 28-26 | Loss | -110 | 193 h 60 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TULSA This year’s Armed Forces Bowl pits 3-7 Mississippi State against 6-2 Tulsa. In any other year, Miss St would NOT have gotten a bowl invite. So we’ll relish the opportunity to play against Mike Leach’s Bulldogs in this one. While they did end the regular season with a somewhat impressive 52-31 win against Missouri (only win over a bowl team), prior to that MSU had lost three in a row and seven of its last eight. The only win in those eight games came against Vanderbilt. Tulsa is a feisty 6-2 and ranked #24 in the country. They have an excellent defense that shut down the likes of UCF, SMU and Oklahoma State. Even in the AAC Championship Game where they lost 27-24 to undefeated Cincinnati, the Golden Hurricane defense did an excellent job. That game was decided on a field goal as time expired. Tulsa’s only other loss was at Oklahoma State and they led there in the second half. This is a really strong team, much better than MSU on both sides of the football. It is absolutely remarkable that we are able to get them laying so few points to a team as bad as Mississippi State. The only reason this line is so low is because MSU is an SEC team. But Tulsa isn’t facing an SEC All-Star team here, or even a good SEC team. Miss State’s offense is terrible, ranking outside the top 100 in most key categories. They were held to 14 points or less in five of their nine games. They cannot run the ball at all. They average only 36 yards/game rushing, which is LAST in the country. The weather isn’t expected to be nice in Fort Worth, TX on New Year’s Eve and that favors Tulsa. A truly incredible matchup for the Golden Hurricane, who can make a national statement to end 2020. Play on TULSA AAA |
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12-30-20 | Wisconsin -8.5 v. Wake Forest | Top | 42-28 | Win | 100 | 21 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* on WISCONSIN So Wisconsin had a really underwhelming regular season. The Badgers were supposed to waltz their way to the Big 10 Championship and face Ohio State. Instead, they lost three games. In each of those three losses, which came in a row, they were held to 7 points or less. That was downright shocking. So now the Badgers end up facing a 4-4 Wake Forest team in the Mayo Bowl. As they were for every regular season contest, Wisconsin is favored here. The underdog role suits Wake Forest well as they went 3-0 ATS when taking points in the regular season. But there is a massive gap between these two teams on the defensive side of the ball. Wisconsin allows 15.7 points/game. WF allows more than double that (31.6) and a frightening 40.8 points/game when they play outside of Winston-Salem. The Demon Deacons have played just one game since November 14th and it was a 24-point loss to Louisville. They’ve allowed 104 points their last two games. Wisconsin has won five of its last six bowl games, the only loss coming by a single point to Oregon in last year’s Rose Bowl. We still believe in this team and think they’ll roll here as the offense gets on track against a bad defensive team. Play on WISCONSIN AAA |
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12-29-20 | Oklahoma State v. Miami-FL +1.5 | Top | 37-34 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MIAMI For the first time this bowl season, we’ve got a matchup of ranked teams! #21 Oklahoma State takes on #18 Miami in this year’s Cheez-It Bowl, which goes down Tuesday evening in Orlando, FL. Though the programs can both claim to have had Jimmy Johnson as a head coach, they’ve met only one time and that was in 1991. This line is trending towards ‘pick ‘em’ territory after OSU opened as a three-point favorite. We agree with this move as Miami will be the more motivated side coming off the butt-kicking they took at the hands of North Carolina in the last game. The Hurricanes only other loss this year was to Clemson. Oklahoma State has a good defense, but it’s third down numbers probably won’t translate to the bowl game facing talented Miami QB D’Eriq King, who has accounted for more than 3000 total yards and 26 touchdowns. OSU’s best offensive player, RB Chuba Hubbard, has opted out of this game. So that’s a break for the Miami defense. Getting this game “up the road” in Orlando is another advantage. The most motivating factor of them all is that Miami will be looking to reverse some “ugly” recent bowl history (1-9 L10) including last year’s unforgivable 14-0 loss to Louisiana Tech. Now they have King and we expect them to play well. Oklahoma State had failed to cover five in a row before beating Baylor in their last game. Play on MIAMI FL AAA |
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12-26-20 | Liberty v. Coastal Carolina -7 | Top | 37-34 | Loss | -104 | 27 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* on COASTAL CAROLINA We were happy to jump on the Coastal Carolina bandwagon early this year. All the Chanticleers have done is go 11-0 straight up and 8-2-1 against the spread. They’ll try and finish off a perfect season Saturday as they take on fellow “Cinderella story” Liberty, who is 8-1 SU and ATS, in the Cure Bowl in Orlando. With the two teams a combined 16-3-1 ATS, there’s a lot to like here. But no one disputes Coastal Carolina is the better team. These teams were actually supposed to play in Conway, SC back on December 5th, but COVID prevented that and instead gave us one of the best games of the year, Coastal Carolina’s 22-17 win over BYU. Liberty hasn’t played since November 27th. Coastal Carolina is 5-0 ATS against teams with winning records this year. Liberty did beat Virginia Tech, but the Hokies weren’t that good and the rest of the Flames’ schedule was WEAK. The only bowl team they defeated was Western Kentucky, who was 2-6 at one point. Coastal Carolina is stronger on both sides of the ball. Play on COASTAL CAROLINA AAA |
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12-25-20 | Marshall +4.5 v. Buffalo | Top | 10-17 | Loss | -105 | 48 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MARSHALL Marshall and Buffalo were thinking about Conference Championships last Friday. But after both lost their respective title games (as favorites), they’ll match up on Christmas Day in the Camellia Bowl (played in Montgomery, AL). Really this is all about who responds better to last week’s loss. Marshall is coming off two straight losses after starting their season 7-0. Buffalo was a perfect 5-0 before losing to Ball State exactly one week ago. Marshall’s offense is obviously a “work in progress” and cannot get into a scenario where they need to “trade points” with Buffalo. But fortunately they have a defense that came into the C-USA Champ Game allowing just 88.9 yards/game. Buffalo has RB Jaret Patterson, but he was limited in the MAC Championship by a knee injury and only ran for 47 yards on 18 carries. The Bulls offense managed only one score in the second half of the MAC Championship and it was on a long run (not by Patterson). It’s also tough when your defense gives up 35 points in half like Buffalo’s did. Marshall’s defense has not allowed more than 22 points in any game all season. We like them as the underdog, a role they were in just once during the regular season -- when they upset Appalachian State. Play on MARSHALL AAA |
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12-24-20 | Hawaii +11.5 v. Houston | Top | 28-14 | Win | 100 | 25 h 60 m | Show |
This is a 10* on HAWAII This game may be called the “New Mexico Bowl,” but it’s actually taking place in Frisco, TX due to COVID restrictions. Houston isn’t complaining as the game is even closer to home, a welcome reprieve after the Cougars had EIGHT cancellations/postponements during the regular season. But we’re not sold that they should be this big of a favorite. They’ve played just one time since November 14th and that ended up being a 30-27 LOSS to Memphis. Not coincidentally, we played against UH there as well. They were 6.5-point road favorites for that one. Hawaii was just 4-4 SU and 3-5 ATS in the regular season. But if you take out games where they were favored (0-3 ATS), then they begin to look like a more attractive bet here. Led by QB Chevan Cordeiro (2450 total yards, 18 total touchdowns), the Warriors should score a reasonable number of points in this game. The only other time this season they were catching double digits was vs. Boise State. Houston is missing two of its best defensive players as they opted out to prepare for the NFL Draft. Same with their leading receiver. Houston has lost three straight bowls. Their head coach Dana Holgorsen is 2-5 straight up in bowl games. Play on HAWAII AAA |
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12-19-20 | Oklahoma -5.5 v. Iowa State | Top | 27-21 | Win | 100 | 47 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 9* on OKLAHOMA Oklahoma is going for revenge in this year’s Big 12 Championship Game. One of their two regular season losses was to Iowa State, 37-30 back on October 3rd. That game was played in Ames and OU was a 7.5-point favorite. What’s notable is the Sooners haven’t lost since. They’ve won six in a row, the last five of which have all come by at least 13 points. OU led Iowa State by double digits (17-6) in the first half of the first meetings only to let the lead slip away at the end. They allowed two touchdown drives in the final eight minutes of the fourth quarter. At the time, it was their second blown lead in as many weeks (also Kansas State). There is no doubt Oklahoma is in a better place now and favorites have dominated these Power 5 Championship Games of late. Since 2015, the underdog has won just twice in 23 Championship Games. Iowa State has had a nice year, but they aren’t as good as OU. The revenge factor is big here. So we’ll lay the short number. Play on OKLAHOMA AAA |
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12-18-20 | Ball State v. Buffalo -13 | Top | 38-28 | Loss | -120 | 56 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BUFFALO Buffalo steamrolled its way to this MAC Championship Game, winning all five of its games by an average of 31.8 points! They are clearly the best team in their conference this year, a claim supported by the fact they are double digit favorites in Friday’s Championship Game against a Ball State team that is also on a five-game win streak. The only game Buffalo didn’t cover this year was against Bowling Green where they were 31-point favorites. They won that game 42-17 and were up bigger before allowing the backdoor cover. Going back to last season, the Bulls have covered seven of their last eight as favorites. RB Jaret Patterson went over 1000 yards rushing despite the team playing just five games. He’s only the 12th back in College Football history to go over 1000 yards in just five games. In addition to all that you’ve already read about them, Buffalo is 17-5 ATS its last 22 MAC games. They are the clear class of the conference this year and will punctuate this 2020 season with a decisive win in the Championship Game. Play on BUFFALO AAA |
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12-12-20 | Stanford -2.5 v. Oregon State | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 22 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Oregon State has put together four straight ATS wins, all one score games. One of them was an upset over rival Oregon. Last week they played without their star running back and still stayed within six of Utah - as 14-point underdogs. The Beavers have been double digit dogs in three of those wins.They are underdogs again this week, although not by double digits, to a Stanford team they’ve lost to 10 straight times. The Cardinal are coming off a big win against Washington last week, their second victory in a row after opening 0-2. RB Jefferson is going to return this week for the Beavers, but they have a backup QB and that makes the offense one-dimensional and easier to prepare for. Stanford has four injured players, two of them wide receivers. This game was going to take place in Palo Alto, but had to be moved to Corvallis due to COVID protocols in California. This will be a relatively low-scoring game. Play on UNDER AAA |
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12-12-20 | USC v. UCLA +3.5 | Top | 43-38 | Loss | -118 | 102 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 9* on UCLA Southern Cal looked especially good on Sunday (we had them!) as a big passing day from QB Slovis (5 TD passes!) allowed them to overwhelm Washington State 38-13. A win this week, against a UCLA team they’ve now been favored against 18 of the last 19 seasons, sends the Trojans through to the Pac 12 Championship. But this game is a lot more tricky than it seems. USC is playing on short rest. UCLA is 3-2 with both losses occurring on the road in one-possession games. The Bruins are 4-0 ATS the last four games and the only straight up loss they’ve suffered during that time was by three at Oregon, a game which they outgained the opponent only to be undone by four turnovers. The Bruins come into Saturday as winners of two in a row, having beaten Arizona and Arizona State. USC could not run the ball last week, gaining just 5 yards on the ground, and we don’t expect them to have much success in that department this week either. Home team is 12-5 ATS the last 17 meetings and USC is just 1-5-1 ATS its last seven as a road favorite. Play on UCLA AAA |
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12-12-20 | Houston v. Memphis +4.5 | Top | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 98 h 47 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MEMPHIS The start time for this game was bumped back a few hours, but we assure you things will be worth the wait as Memphis looks to upset Houston. Memphis getting points at the Liberty Bowl is not something you’ll see very often. There’s a reason for that. They’ve won 14 straight home games, a win streak that stretches back to October 2018. The Tigers last home loss was by one point to a UCF team that finished the regular season 12-0. While not as good as they were last season, Memphis is still 5-0 at home where they are averaging 43.9 points and giving up only 29.8. They beat UCF here earlier this season. They’ve defeated Houston four years in a row, scoring at least 42 points in all four wins. Houston has never really been able to get on track in 2020 due to COVID-19 and contact tracing. They’ve played only six games with the most recent being over a month ago. This is a tough ask to lay points on the road against a team that’s been so dominant on its home field. The Cougars are 4-10 ATS as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points, losing eight of those games outright. They are also 0-3 SU and ATS the L3 times playing with 2 or more weeks rest. Play on MEMPHIS AAA |
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12-12-20 | Coastal Carolina -12.5 v. Troy | Top | 42-38 | Loss | -110 | 97 h 2 m | Show |
This is an 8* on COASTAL CAROLINA For Coastal Carolina, the plan for last week was always to “make a statement.” At first they thought it would be at the expense of Liberty, a fellow non-P5 school with an excellent record. But when Liberty had to bail due to COVID, undefeated BYU stepped up and took their place. Few gave the Chanticleers a chance on such short notice (they were 10.5-point underdogs), but all they ended up doing was pull off the biggest win in school history, defeating BYU 22-17. Now 10-0, Coastal Carolina looks to finish the regular season undefeated by winning at Troy. The Sun Belt Championship Game (vs. Louisiana) awaits the Chanticleers next weekend. But don’t expect any kind of “look ahead” given that CC is looking to stay undefeated. Troy, who may be without their starting QB, simply doesn’t score enough to keep pace with a team like the Chanticleers. Before shutting out South Alabama 29-0 last week, the Trojans had scored just 13, 17 and 10 points their previous three games, all losses. Coastal Carolina is winning by an average of almost three touchdowns per game this season. Play on COASTAL CAROLINA AAA |
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12-11-20 | Nevada v. San Jose State -2.5 | Top | 20-30 | Win | 100 | 80 h 3 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SAN JOSE STATE The number of unbeaten teams across College Football has dwindled down to nine with five of those teams having played five or less games. San Jose State is one of the big surprises on that list. Last week the Spartans were supposed to host Hawaii but were instead forced to head out to Honolulu. They won anyway, 35-24, to improve to 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS. Once again they’ve “lost” a home game this week as they’ll face Nevada in Las Vegas (at least it’s not Reno) at Sam Boyd Stadium. Still we expect this nice story to continue with SJSU picking up another victory. Nevada was lucky to defeat Fresno State 37-26 last week as the defense gave up almost 600 yards! Turnovers really bailed them out, but that’s not a reliable blueprint for success. San Jose State has a pretty good defense and the team is 14-5 ATS its last 19 Mountain West games. Play on SAN JOSE STATE AAA |
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12-10-20 | Pittsburgh -6.5 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 34-20 | Win | 100 | 54 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PITT Pittsburgh (5-5) looks to wrap up the regular season with an above-.500 record as they play at Georgia Tech Thursday night. This should be a big offensive night for the Panthers as QB Kenny Pickett is back in the fold and will be facing a defense that’s giving up an ugly 42.6 points at home this year. With Pickett in the starting lineup, the Panthers are 5-3 this season. One of those losses was to Clemson two weeks ago. The other two were by a combined two points. So far Pickett has thrown for more than 2200 yards with 12 TD passes. Half of his interceptions came against Clemson. He’s completing 62% of his passes. Georgia Tech, who will wrap up its season next week in Miami, is a pretty lousy 3-6 after losing by 10 at NC State Saturday. The Yellow Jackets have been remarkably inconsistent in 2020 and there’s no reason to believe they’ll “show up” here. The offense has a horrible turnover problem and it should be “tough sledding” against a Pitt defense that’s allowing only 2.8 yards/rush and leads the country in sacks. As a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points, Pitt is 6-3 SU and ATS its L9. As an underdog of 3.5 to 10 pts, Ga Tech is 1-7 SU and ATS L8. Play on PITTSBURGH AAA |
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12-06-20 | Washington State v. USC -11 | Top | 13-38 | Win | 100 | 33 h 40 m | Show |
analysis to follow |
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12-05-20 | Boston College v. Virginia -6 | Top | 32-43 | Win | 100 | 99 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 9* on VIRGINIA We think it's fair to say that both Boston College and Virginia have surpassed expectations in 2020. Boston College is 6-4, pulling some upsets along the way. First year coach Jeff Hafley has done a good job as has his QB Phil Jurkovec. But Jurkovec and top rusher David Bailey suffered injuries in last week’s win over Louisville. While both are listed atop their respective depth charts, the injuries are something worth monitoring. Virginia is going to be highly motivated for this game as they have never beaten BC in six all-time matchups. Getting back to this season, the Cavaliers have covered four straight, winning the last three straight up and should be fresh off a bye week. They were supposed to have faced Florida State last week, but that didn’t happen. Before that they face Abilene Christian so it’s been several weeks since they’ve been tested. The fact the Cavs beat North Carolina here at home carries a lot of weight with us as does their 16-2 SU record in the last 18 home games (12-5-1 ATS). When playing with at least two weeks rest, Virginia is 5-0 ATS the past three seasons. Play on VIRGINIA AAA |
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12-05-20 | Penn State v. Rutgers +11.5 | Top | 23-7 | Loss | -110 | 95 h 9 m | Show |
This is an 8* on RUTGERS Penn State finally broke into the win column as it defeated another struggling “blue blood” (Michigan) 27-17 on the road. That was also the first time all season that the Nittany Lions covered the spread. While not as bad as their record indicates, last week’s performance didn’t say to us that PSU was anywhere close to deserving of its Top 15 preseason ranking. It’s back to laying double digits this week, on the road, against a Rutgers team that’s been competitive in 2020. The Scarlet Knights are 4-1 ATS as underdogs so far and just pulled their second upset of the season, beating Purdue 37-30 last week in West Lafayette. Before that, Rutgers had suffered close losses to Michigan (49-43) and Illinois (23-20), the former being a multi-overtime affair. So we don’t see the Scarlet Knights getting blown out at home here. After getting the proverbial “monkey off their back” last week, there’s going to be a tendency for Penn State to “ease up” this week. They’ve covered just one of the last five times they’ve been a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points. You’d have to go back to September 2018 to find the last time the Nittany Lions covered the spread in two straight games. Play on RUTGERS AAA |
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12-05-20 | Oklahoma State -2.5 v. TCU | Top | 22-29 | Loss | -110 | 95 h 8 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OK State Oklahoma State is set to meet TCU this week as the Cowboys look to further distance themselves from the beating they took from rival Oklahoma in Bedlam two weeks ago. Minus their top two running backs, the Pokes still were able to put up 50 points and over 500 yards last week in a win over Texas Tech. They didn’t cover, but that’s because they were laying double digits and gave up two late touchdowns to the Red Raiders to make it a 50-44 final. TCU, who is just 5-11 ATS its last 16 home games, doesn’t have the kind of firepower to keep pace here. Though they did score 59 last week, that was against Kansas, so it really “doesn’t count.” They also scored three non-offensive touchdowns in that contest. Oklahoma State is certainly better than the last three teams TCU has beaten and the Cowboys have won 10 of their last 12 games when the line is a field goal or less either way. The Horned Frogs have been hit hard by COVID and were missing upwards of 30 players last week. That’s not good. Play on OKLAHOMA STATE AAA |
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12-05-20 | Rice v. Marshall -23 | Top | 20-0 | Loss | -110 | 95 h 1 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MARSHALL Marshall is still undefeated (7-0) and ranked 21st in the latest College Football Playoff rankings. They’re not getting much respect nationwide (they are 15th in both AP & Coaches Polls), but they could probably care less. The Thundering Herd are winning by an average of 27.3 points/game and have covered all but two times. One of those two ATS losses was as a 44-point favorite vs. UMass, a game they won 51-10. The other was a 20-9 win over an FAU team that has a really good defense. Rice does not have a good defense nor are they getting 44 points this week in Huntington. This will be just game #4 for the Owls, whose season did not get underway until October 24th. They played just one game in November and lost 27-17 to North Texas. The three teams Rice has played - Middle Tennessee, Southern Miss and North Texas - are all terrible and in no way prepares them for this huge step up in class. Marshall has been off for 21 days and looking to beat up on somebody. Rice will oblige. Play on MARSHALL AAA |
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12-03-20 | Air Force v. Utah State +10.5 | Top | 35-7 | Loss | -110 | 57 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UTAH STATE Utah State is now 1-4 on the season as they recorded their first win of the season last Thursday, beating New Mexico by a score of 41-24. The Aggies get another home game this week, this time against an Air Force team that was supposed to play last Thursday as well, but didn’t. Their game vs. Colorado State was one of many games cancelled/postponed because of COVID-19. That means the Falcons played just one game in November. They made it count with a 28-0 shutout of the same New Mexico team that Utah State just defeated. Now that both Mountain West sides have proven they can dominate a winless team, let’s see what they can do against one another. The spread just seems too high for an Air Force team playing on the road with just four games under its belt. While it’s true that Utah State has played only five games, they haven’t had much interruption since their season began. For Air Force, this is only the second game in five weeks. Historically, they haven’t been good as road favorites (2-4 ATS L6) or on Thursdays (7-13 SU/ATS). Last week’s win should give Utah State some confidence that they can keep this one close. Play on UTAH STATE AAA |
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11-28-20 | Auburn +24.5 v. Alabama | Top | 13-42 | Loss | -108 | 21 h 27 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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11-28-20 | North Texas v. UTSA -2 | Top | 17-49 | Win | 100 | 21 h 47 m | Show |
This is an 9* on UTSA UTSA has gotten in a lot more games than North Texas. This will be the Roadrunners’ 11th game of the season. Entering this weekend, only Texas State has played more. North Texas has played only six games including just one over the last month. That one was played last week and was a 27-17 win over Rice. It was their second straight win after three straight losses. Besides Rice, they’ve beaten a very bad Middle Tennessee team and Houston Baptist, a FCS program. UTSA is 6-4 on the year and has won three of four. They are off a 23-20 win at Southern Miss and now return home where they’ve gone 4-1 SU. Another pertinent trend is that UTSA has won the last seven times it has been favored, four of those games coming this year. North Texas, who trailed 10-0 last week, has a poor defense. The Mean Green are giving up 520.5 yards/game. That is a LOT. They did a good job stopping the run against Rice last week, but UTSA has 521 yards rushing in its last two games. The North Texas secondary was also shredded for 327 yards last week. UTSA always gets it done as a favorite so we’ll happily lay this short number. Play on UTSA AAA |
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11-28-20 | Maryland +12 v. Indiana | Top | 11-27 | Loss | -104 | 18 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MARYLAND Indiana is the only 5-0 ATS team in the country. But they are coming off their first loss of the year, in a high-profile situation, to #3 Ohio State. Considering they were almost three touchdown underdogs in Columbus, we’d say the Hoosiers played well in a 42-35 loss. Well, except for the run game, which produced -1 yard. The bottom line though is IU’s “bubble” was burst and this looks like a classic hangover spot against a Maryland team that already has two upset wins to its credit. The Terrapins have beaten Minnesota as a 17.5 point underdog and then Penn State as a 27.5 point underdog. So an outright win Saturday definitely isn’t out of the realm of possibility. Unlike Indiana, who is one week removed from a loss to Ohio State, Maryland has been off for two weeks. So the schedule really favors them here. The reason for having those last two weeks off - cancellations vs. Michigan State and Ohio State - should be obvious at this point (COVID). But even though he’s been forced to coach virtually these last two weeks, coach Locksley feels his team is ready. Indiana was down 28 last week and this is just the third time they’ve been favored in 2020. Play on MARYLAND AAA |
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11-27-20 | Notre Dame -4.5 v. North Carolina | Top | 31-17 | Win | 100 | 48 h 27 m | Show |
This is an 8* on NOTRE DAME Notre Dame is 8-0 and #2 in the initial College Football Playoff rankings. They’ve already beaten Clemson, so they are really in the driver’s seat right now. North Carolina is going to be the toughest remaining test before the ACC Championship Game, however we think the Tar Heels are getting too much respect in this Top 25 battle. While UNC can put up a ton of points (they average 43.1 per game), so can Notre Dame (37.6 PPG). The difference is the Tar Heels defense also gives up a ton. They are allowing over 30 points/game and the last time we saw them they gave up 53, not to mention almost 750 total yards, to Wake Forest. The Heels were behind by as much as three touchdowns in that game, which was at home. Considering how the Fighting Irish have put up at least 42 points in four of the last six games, Ian Book and the offense should have a big game Friday. Notre Dame’s defense is #1 in the ACC at stopping the run. North Carolina’s defense has allowed more than 200 yards rushing in three different games! Uh oh. Here’s the kicker(s): ND has won its last 10 games as a road favorite (6-3-1 ATS) plus they are 10-0 SU the L10 times they’ve been a favorite (home or away) of 3.5 to 10 points, also going 8-1-1 ATS. Play on NOTRE DAME AAA |
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11-27-20 | Iowa State v. Texas +1.5 | Top | 23-20 | Loss | -115 | 45 h 57 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TEXAS Texas is the play here as the Lonnghorns face Iowa State in a ranked showdown. Although only 2-4-1 ATS, UT is 5-2 SU with one of those two losses coming to Oklahoma in overtime. Incredibly, three of the ‘Horns’ seven games have gone to OT. They have not played in three weeks due to a scheduled bye (last week) and an unscheduled bye two weeks ago (Kansas game postponed due to COVID). So they should be well rested and prepared for an Iowa State team that’s coming off a 45-0 win over Kansas State last weekend. The size of that victory has obviously influenced bettors' perception of the Cyclones, but before we go giving them too much credit, be aware that Kansas State has devolved into a total mess since losing QB Thompson for the season. They are also a team that’s been severely impacted, in a negative way, by COVID. We really like the fact that this line has “jumped the fence” and that Texas is now a slight home dog. That’s great value for a game where we projected them to be a field goal favorite. Iowa State is 2-5 ATS its last seven chances as a road favorite of three points or less. The Cyclones lost at home to Louisiana, never led at Oklahoma State and while they did beat Oklahoma, they trailed almost the entire game. Play on TEXAS AAA |
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11-21-20 | Liberty +5.5 v. NC State | Top | 14-15 | Win | 100 | 28 h 9 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LIBERTY Liberty can’t get any respect. The Flames are 7-0 and ranked 21st in the country. But they are still underdogs to a 5-3 North Carolina State team this week. This despite having already beaten another ACC team, Virginia Tech, as a 17-point dog two weeks ago. We took Liberty plus the points there and will do the same here. NC State is lucky to even be 5-3. They got outgained in road wins against Pitt and Virginia. Two weeks ago they faced Miami and while that ended up being a close loss (44-41), the Wolfpack gave up over 600 total yards and were outgained severely. Oh yeah, they also lost to Virginia Tech -- by 21! NC State’s defense has already allowed 40+ points four different times. Liberty averages 42.3 points/game and while some of that can be attributed to weaker competition, they did score 38 against Va Tech. They are 7-2 ATS L9 vs. the ACC. We just don’t see them as the underdog in this matchup. NC State has failed to cover five of the last seven times it has been favored. Play on LIBERTY AAA |
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11-21-20 | Missouri -6 v. South Carolina | Top | 17-10 | Win | 100 | 27 h 26 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MISSOURI South Carolina has a lot of problems right now. They just fired Will Muschamp. That drastic move came after three straight losses, all of which saw the Gamecocks give up 48+ points. Last week’s 59-42 loss at Ole Miss was apparently the “straw that broke the camel’s back.” The defense gave up over 700 yards! So Missouri, who is playing for the first time in three weeks, has to like its chances this week. The Tigers last game didn’t go so well either. They were beaten 41-17 by Florida on Halloween. But facing a team that has given up 159 points in three games and just fired its coach is what we call a “get-well” game. There’s way too much turmoil going on at South Carolina for interim coach Mike Bobo to have a successful debut. Bobo was the offensive coordinator under Muschamp, so he’s not going to get this defense fixed anytime soon. Look for Mizzou to achieve a season-high in points and earn itself a comfortable cover this week. Play on MISSOURI AAA |
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11-21-20 | Wisconsin -7.5 v. Northwestern | Top | 7-17 | Loss | -103 | 27 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* on WISCONSIN #10 Wisconsin being a road favorite here against #19 Northwestern says a lot. Since 2018, teams ranked in the top 15 have done very well (16-5 ATS) against opponents that are ranked, but outside the Top 15. That includes 5-0 ATS if the Top 15 team is on the road, which Wisconsin is here. That the Badgers are favored by this many points, despite being 1-5 ATS the L6 years vs. Northwestern with three outright losses, tells you what the oddsmakers think of this year’s matchup. Northwestern might be 4-0 in the Big 10 for the first time since ‘96, but three of their wins have been by single digits and they’ve been outgained twice. It’s a “phony” 4-0 record. Wisconsin just handed Michigan its worst home loss since 1935, 49-11, outgaining the Wolverines by nearly 250 total yards. We’re proud to say we had the Badgers last week in Ann Arbor. Despite being 2-0, the Badgers are still being underrated by the public, likely because they had two games called off because of COVID. But in the two games they have played they have put up 45 and 49 points, winning by 38 each time. We expect Wisconsin’s superiority to be on full display Saturday afternoon at Ryan Field as they once again roll to an easy win and cover. Play on WISCONSIN AAA |
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11-21-20 | Appalachian State v. Coastal Carolina -4 | Top | 23-34 | Win | 100 | 22 h 25 m | Show |
This is an 8* on COASTAL CAROLINA Coastal Carolina has been a favorite of ours for weeks now. They have treated us to multiple ATS wins, a 30-27 upset of Louisiana and 51-0 beatdown of Georgia State to name a couple. The Chanticleers deserve everyone’s respect as they are now 7-0 SU, 6-1 ATS on the season and ranked #15 in the country. This week they face perhaps the biggest remaining hurdle to an undefeated regular season, that being Appalachian State. But we’ll gladly lay the points again with CC as the game is in Conway and the home team is off a bye. Coastal Carolina wasn’t supposed to be off a bye here, but last week’s game vs. Troy got called off because of COVID. The extra week to prepare for a tough opponent is a big break for the Chanticleers. Meanwhile the situation for Appalachian State is not good. They are 0-3 ATS the L3 weeks and haven’t beaten a ranked opponent since their famous upset of Michigan back in 2007 (0-7 SU since then). Making things even worse is the uncertain status of QB Zac Thomas. Thomas left last week’s 17-13 win over Georgia State with an apparent case of whiplash. Even if Thomas were to play Saturday, it’s tough to like the Mountaineers here considering they trailed Georgia State when Thomas got hurt. This is Coastal Carolina’s year. Play on COASTAL CAROLINA AAA |
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11-21-20 | LSU +1 v. Arkansas | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 21 h 26 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LSU Arkansas’ unbeaten ATS run ended last week in emphatic fashion. They were thumped 63-35 by Florida, which was a reminder just how large of a gap still exists between the Razorbacks and the SEC’s elite. For the record, the Hogs were 6-0 ATS this year prior to facing Florida and had covered eight in a row going back to the end of 2019. That eight win streak started with a cover vs. LSU - but they were 39.5 point underdogs last season. LSU obviously isn’t the same team this year, but they should still be able to defeat Arkansas for a fifth straight time. The Tigers were spared a beating at the hands of Alabama last week as that game was claimed by COVID. They haven’t played since an ugly 48-11 loss to Auburn Halloween night. All that time to prepare should lead to a focused effort this week and hopefully the players affected by COVID will return. They are 7-1 ATS following an ATS loss. Arkansas has its own COVID-related issues with Sam Pittman forced to coach remotely. That will affect a team’s preparation as we saw last week when the Razorbacks defense gave up almost 600 total yards against Florida. LSU isn’t Florida, but they are still better than the Hogs. LSU scored at least 34 points in every game before losing to Auburn. Play on LSU AAA |
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11-20-20 | Purdue -3 v. Minnesota | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -106 | 59 h 12 m | Show |
This is an 8* on PURDUE Purdue is 2-1 but just suffered its first loss last Saturday. They came up short against Northwestern, losing 27-20 as 3.5-point home underdogs. That was painful for us as we had the Boilermakers. An inability to run the ball is what cost them. Running the ball here vs. Minnesota shouldn’t be a problem. The Golden Gophers have given up 181+ yards rushing in all four games and the 235 they allowed last week in a 35-7 loss to Iowa was only the THIRD most allowed in a game this season. So you shouldn’t be shocked to learn Minnesota is 1-3 on the year. Their lone win was against a bad Illinois team. They just haven’t looked right since the season started. Michigan, who obviously isn’t very good, blew them out. Then the Gophers lost as big favorites to a Maryland team that was off a 43-3 loss. Then came the 41-14 win over Illinois, which PJ Fleck hoped was the start of a turnaround. It wasn’t. Losing 35-7 at home to Iowa was a massive step back and the Golden Gophers have been outscored 84-31 in two games at TCF Bank Stadium. They’ve allowed 35+ points in all three losses this season. Purdue is 17-7 ATS off an ATS loss and has double revenge. They win. Play on PURDUE AAA |
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11-19-20 | Tulane v. Tulsa -6 | Top | 24-30 | Push | 0 | 35 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TULSA Tulane will arrive in Tulsa Thursday night on a 3-game SU win streak and a 5-game ATS win streak. But the teams they’ve been beating aren’t very good. Tulsa is now ranked #25 in the country, ending a decade-long absence from the polls. Their only loss this season was to Oklahoma State and they led that game going into the fourth quarter. They’ve since won four in a row including an upset of UCF. So we’ve got two hot teams from the American on the field Thursday night. We side with the Golden Hurricane as they are at home and have a defense that can stop the run. That latter part is huge when facing Tulane, who is 4-1 when rushing for 200+ yards this season. But Tulsa has yet to give up more than 151 yards rushing to any opponent. This is also a triple revenge spot for the Golden Hurricane, who has lost to Tulane three straight years. But none of those Tulsa teams won more than four games. This one is 4-1 SU. Tulane is 2-5 ATS the last seven times as a road underdog. One of those two covers was earlier this year (at UCF) as a 21-point dog (lost by 17). Tulsa has already beaten two teams (UCF, Houston) that beat Tulane by 17+. Play on TULSA AAA |
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11-17-20 | Akron v. Kent State -25 | Top | 35-69 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* on KENT STATE Akron did play better than expected last week.They “only” lost by 14 to Ohio U. That a two-touchdown loss could be spun as a “success” (Zips easily covered the 27-point spread) should be a clear indication that this team is not good. They are probably one of the worst teams in the entire country. The loss to Ohio last Tuesday was their 19th straight, a streak which goes back to 2018. They were 0-12 SU a season ago. The Zips have failed to score more than 17 points in any of the last nine games. Such offensive (and overall) ineptitude is going to be a major problem facing rival Kent State this week.The Golden Flashes went just 2-10 SU in 2018. But unlike Akron, this program has turned things around. After winning five straight at the end of last year (including bowl), it’s a 2-0 start to 2020 that has seen the Flashes offense average 254 yards rushing and 295 yards passing! They put up 62 points last week on Bowling Green, a comparable team to Akron, and that was on the road. Akron’s defense has given up over 400 yards rushing in its two games.Last year, the Kent State defense held the Zips to three points in a 23-point win. This year’s matchup figures to be even more lopsided. It’s a team that’s 7-0 SU/6-1 ATS hosting a team that’s 0-19 SU/4-15 ATS its L19. A complete mismatch here. Play on KENT STATE AAA |
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11-14-20 | Wisconsin -4.5 v. Michigan | Top | 49-11 | Win | 100 | 70 h 54 m | Show |
This is an 8* on WISCONSIN Michigan has not played well as an underdog for Jim Harbaugh. They have lost all 10 games where they have been getting points and covered only twice. This will be the first time under Harbaugh that they’ve been a home dog to anyone besides Ohio State. It’s against a Wisconsin team that’s been forced to cancel its last two games because of COVID. While that is certainly a distraction no team wants to have to deal with, the Badgers were projected to be a Top 5 (ish) team (in the country) this season and were 45-7 winners (against Illinois) in the one game they did play. The Badgers could have QB Graham Mertz on the field this Saturday in Ann Arbor. Regardless whether or not he suits up, look for Wisconsin to take advantage of a terrible Wolverines secondary that has been picked apart in losses to Michigan State and Indiana. Michigan has missed covering the spread by a combined 45 points the last two weeks. They look to be vastly overrated and Harbaugh’s future is now very much in doubt. The team just isn’t very good. Wisconsin has won four of the last six against Michigan. Not only were they favored in all four wins, those four wins were all by double digits. While it was two weeks ago, the Badgers are 4-0 ATS the L4 times they’ve been off a 40+ point game. They’ve also covered 13 of 17 as road favorites. Play on WISCONSIN AAA |
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11-14-20 | Oregon -10 v. Washington State | Top | 43-29 | Win | 100 | 69 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OREGON You could pick apart Oregon’s 35-14 win over Stanford win last Saturday. The Cardinal didn’t have their starting QB or top receiver and still moved the ball pretty well. Had their kicker not missed FOUR field goals, it’s obviously a much closer game. But be careful about discounting what the Ducks did. Their offense, in the first game without Justin Herbert, gained almost 500 yards. Washington State’s defense isn’t good so we’re expecting plenty of points and yards from Oregon yet again this week. The big story (from a betting perspective) is that the Ducks are 0-10 ATS the L10 meetings with Wazzu. That is quite the crazy streak. Oregon did snap a 4-game SU losing streak to Wazzu with a 37-35 win in Eugene last year. Now it’s time for the ATS streak to end. We know lots of people are falling in love with last week’s performance by the Cougars new starting QB, Jayden de Laura. But remember that it came against Oregon State. You have to go back to the WSU defense, which gave up a lot of yards (451) and should be picked apart by Tyler Shough and the Ducks offense. Washington State is just 1-6 ATS the last seven times they’ve been off a SU win. Play on OREGON AAA |
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11-14-20 | Northwestern v. Purdue +3 | Top | 27-20 | Loss | -110 | 67 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 9* on PURDUE Northwestern is 3-0 but has been pretty lucky to win each of the last two weeks. They trailed Iowa 17-0 before coming back, thanks to three Hawkeyes’ turnovers. They gained just 273 yards in that 21-20 victory. Then the Wildcats were -125 in total yards to Nebraska in a 21-13 win last week where again turnovers were the story. The Cornhuskers gave it away twice in the second half, both times deep inside Northwestern territory. In three games, Northwestern has forced nine turnovers. They probably can’t count on that saving them every week. Nebraska was in the red zone EIGHT times last week, yet came away with only 13 points. This week they go to Purdue to face a Boilermakers team that is also unbeaten (2-0). Purdue had an unexpected bye last Saturday as they were supposed to face Wisconsin, but that game was cancelled due to the Badgers’ COVID outbreak. The Boilermakers have looked good on offense even without All-American WR Rondale Moore. David Bell has 22 catches for 243 yards so far and Northwestern coach Pat Fitzgerald called HIM “the best receiver in the country.” The Wildcats are just 2-8-2 ATS the L12 times they’ve been favored. Purdue is on a 19-7 ATS run as underdogs. Play on PURDUE AAA |
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11-14-20 | Colorado v. Stanford -6.5 | Top | 35-32 | Loss | -110 | 66 h 39 m | Show |
This is an 8* on STANFORD UPDATE: The following writeup was completed BEFORE the Pac 12 was forced to apologize to Stanford for the inconclusive testing that resulted in last week's COVID-related absences. All of those Cardinal players are now available for Saturday and we're liking this play even more! COVID issues and an opening week loss to Oregon will have many doubting Stanford this week, but not us. The Cardinal will be hosting a Colorado team that is off a 48-42 win over UCLA last Saturday. The Buffaloes were up big in that win (by 28 points), but had to hold off a furious second half rally by the Bruins. The biggest contributing factor to the win was a +4 turnover margin. The defense still gave up 7.0 yards per rush attempt and almost 500 total yards. Stanford should be able to move the ball here, even if it has to go with a backup QB again. Not having starter Davis Mills (COVID) versus a team as good as Oregon was a really tough blow for the Cardinal last week But they still gained over 400 yards with backup Jack West. The problem was that their kicker missed FOUR field goals! If called back into duty, West can again lean on RB Austin Jones, who just had a 100+ yard day against a defense that’s much better than the one he’ll face this week. Speaking of field goal issues, Colorado’s kicker just retired! The Buffs are 0-4 ATS their last four road games and they were the underdog in all four. Play on STANFORD AAA |
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11-14-20 | South Alabama v. UL-Lafayette -15.5 | Top | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 64 h 10 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LOUISIANA The last two weeks have seen South Alabama fall short against Ga Southern and Coastal Carolina - by scores of 24-17 and 23-6. Now they have to play a third consecutive road game against who we still consider to be the top team in the Sun Belt, Louisiana. The Jaguars have just one road win in their last 16 tries and are 2-23 SU its L25 games as an underdog. While the Ragin Cajuns also lost to Coastal Carolina this year, they would probably still be favored in a rematch. They can potentially earn that rematch by winning Saturday as that would clinch the Sun Belt’s Western Division. (Coastal Carolina leads the East). Coastal Carolina is Louisiana’s only loss of 2020. The Ragin Cajuns have beaten Iowa State and since the CC loss are 3-0 and averaging 446.7 yards of offense. The defense is in the Top 20 in the country in passing yards allowed. Louisiana has beaten S Alabama four years in a row and was actually favored by 27.5 on the ROAD last season. While they didn’t cover the spot, this number is far more manageable and they’re at home this time. While all of Louisiana’s conference games so far have been decided by 10 points or less, they’ve been facing some of the better teams. This is their easiest game to date. Play on LOUISIANA AAA |
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11-13-20 | East Carolina v. Cincinnati -27.5 | Top | 17-55 | Win | 100 | 55 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CINCINNATI Cincinnati is one of seven teams in the country that’s 6-0 or better. Other than Notre Dame and Alabama, some of the names on that list might surprise you. But the Bearcats are no joke. This is a legit top 10 team in the country right now that has absolutely been destroying its opponents. They’ve averaged 43 points the previous three games and that was against SMU, Memphis and Houston, three of the better teams in the American Athletic Conference. The defense is allowing just 11.7 points/game for the season and hasn’t given up more than 13 since allowing a season-high 20 in the opener vs. Austin Peay. While laying this many points presents a bit of a challenge, we just can’t see Cincy having any difficulty with a 1-5 East Carolina team that’s giving up 37.3 points/game. The Pirates ran for only 35 yards on 29 attempts in a 38-21 loss to Tulane last week, which was at home. They shouldn’t expect to be able to run the ball here either as the Bearcats’ defense is 10th best in the country at stopping the run. This should be a very easy win for the favorite. Lay it! Play on CINCINNATI AAA |
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11-11-20 | Toledo v. Western Michigan -2.5 | Top | 38-41 | Win | 100 | 34 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* on WESTERN MICHIGAN These are probably the best two teams in the MAC’s West Division and if one thing is for certain, it’s that this game is going to be a lot tougher than it was for either side in Week 1. Behind 310 yards rushing, Toledo smoked Bowling Green 38-3 last week. Western Michigan was just as unkind to Akron in a 58-13 blowout. We’ve got some concerns about Toledo though as the Rockets lost all 4 MAC road games last year and did so by an average of 28 points/game. Furthermore, their only two wins in the last six games of 2019 were by a total of five points and came about as a result of the opponents missing on a field goal & two-point conversion. Western Michigan was arguably as talented as any MAC team in 2019 and won all six of its home games. Five of those six wins were by double digits. With this game taking place in Kalamazoo, that’s an edge for the slightly favored Broncos. Also, having lost to Toledo three straight years, this is a big revenge game. We liked what we saw from WMU quarterback Eleby last week and the backs and receivers looked great as well. Toledo QB Peters has some accuracy issues, so be on the lookout for that. Both of these teams are off blowout wins, but the home team is more likely to keep it rolling. Play on WESTERN MICHIGAN AAA |
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11-11-20 | Eastern Michigan +9.5 v. Ball State | Top | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 34 h 30 m | Show |
This is an 8* on EASTERN MICHIGAN You had both Eastern Michigan coming out on the wrong end of close games last week. They both blew second half leads, so you’ll have two teams ready to go Wednesday. Eastern Michigan lost 27-23 at Kent State and now hits the road for a second straight week to face a Ball State team that lost 38-31 at Miami, Ohio. Ball State won this matchup last season, but by just points, and before that it had been Eastern Michigan prevailing three straight years. This just looks like too many points in a pretty even matchup. Eastern Michigan is 21-6-1 ATS its last 28 games as a road underdog. So this is a spot they usually do well in. They covered the 5.5-point number last week at Kent State. Ball State did not cover against Miami as they were only 1-point underdogs. If you think that playing at home might help the Cardinals here, know that they are just 12-25 ATS their last 37 games here. Eastern Michigan has pulled 12 outright upsets the last four seasons and that actually includes three against Power 5 teams. Knowing that, a simple cover in this matchup doesn’t seem too challenging. Play on EASTERN MICHIGAN AAA |
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11-10-20 | Miami-OH v. Buffalo -9.5 | Top | 10-42 | Win | 100 | 21 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BUFFALO Both Miami and Buffalo opened 2020 by winning. But both might feel a little fortunate to prevail by the margins that they did. Buffalo’s 49-30 win over Northern Illinois was a byproduct of five Huskies turnovers more than anything else, but at least they still won by 19 points. Miami was only a 38-31 winner over Ball State and had to come back from a double digit deficit (21-10) to do so. Now we had the RedHawks so that comeback made us quite happy. But we recognize a shaky start when we see one. Though they came back and won last week, losing starting QB Brett Gabbert wasn’t ideal. (As of press time, it’s unclear whether Gabbert will return this week). Buffalo might be the best team in the MAC this year. They were picked by many to win the conference last year, but a loss to Miami played a significant role in the Redhawks going on to capture the crown. The Bulls had 133 more yards than the Redhawks in last year’s game and the defense allowed just 2.6 yards per rush attempt. Being -4 in turnovers is what cost them. Buffalo’s defense was tops in scoring among MAC teams in 2019 and seven starters are back from that group. They scored THREE touchdowns last week and will be the difference in this revenge spot. Play on BUFFALO AAA |
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11-07-20 | South Alabama v. Coastal Carolina -18 | Top | 6-23 | Loss | -109 | 106 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* on COASTAL CAROLINA Coastal Carolina is 6-0 and we had them last week when they absolutely bludgeoned Georgia State 51-0. QB Grayson McCall returned (from an injury) and threw for four touchdowns and ran for another. The Chanticleers are now the #15 ranked team in the country. After being a short favorite each of the last two weeks, they turn around to host a South Alabama team that simply isn’t on the same level. The Jaguars started their campaign with an upset of Southern Miss on the road. But the only road game they’ve played since was a 24-17 loss at Georgia Southern last Thursday. The win against Southern Miss, not a good team by the way, is the Jaguars only road win in their last 15 tries. Let’s not forget they are 2-22 SU the last 24 games as an underdog. Coastal Carolina has covered every game but one this year. They’ve won five straight against the Sun Belt and already beaten some of the conference’s best this year. Certainly, they should have little difficulty winning Saturday. Play on COASTAL CAROLINA AAA |
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11-07-20 | Florida +3.5 v. Georgia | Top | 44-28 | Win | 100 | 102 h 44 m | Show |
This is an 8* on FLORIDA We’ve got a showdown in the SEC East this weekend with Florida taking on Georgia in what we can safely say will NOT be a “Cocktail Party.” Florida lost earlier this year to Texas A&M, but losing by three on the road to that opponent shouldn’t be considered bad at all. It was considered “bad” at the time, only because Florida was favored and in hindsight they should not have been. (A&M was off a bad loss to Alabama and hadn’t really looked good). But after a two-week hiatus (COVID), the Gators responded with a 41-17 thumping of Mizzou last week. Now they are underdogs for the 1st time. Their offense has been fantastic so far, scoring at least 38 in every game. QB Trask has at least 4 TD passes in every game as well. Remember that Georgia’s defense gave up 41 to Alabama and is now banged up minus star safety LeCounte and DL Rochester. Georgia’s QB Stetson Bennett has not looked all that impressive. Give us the better offensive team taking points. The Dawgs have scored just 38 points total the last two games. Play on FLORIDA AAA |
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11-07-20 | Texas Tech v. TCU -8 | Top | 18-34 | Win | 100 | 102 h 38 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TCU TCU got their act together in a 33-23 win against Baylor last Saturday. Now they return to Fort Worth to play a Texas Tech that hasn’t really been able to get it together all season. The Red Raiders just gave up 62 points in a loss to Oklahoma last week. It was their second time losing while giving up 60+ this season. Their only Big 12 win was against West Virginia, a game where they got outgained by nearly 100 yards. But a late defensive TD put them over the top there. The only other win this season was against FCS Houston Baptist and even then they allowed 600 yards and had to fend off a late 2-point try. TCU is 2-0 on the road, but 0-3 at home. It's just a matter of time until they rectify that discrepancy. The Horned Frogs were up 30-0 last week on Baylor. Meanwhile, Texas Tech gave up 48 in the first half to Oklahoma. These are teams going in opposite directions. The Red Raiders are 2-8 ATS L10 road games. Play on TCU AAA |
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11-07-20 | Liberty +15 v. Virginia Tech | Top | 38-35 | Win | 100 | 98 h 4 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LIBERTY You may not know it, but Liberty has one of the best records in the country. The 25th ranked Flames are 5-0, though they haven’t really beaten anyone of substance. The expectation this week is clearly that they’ll suffer their first loss. But might the oddsmakers be writing them off too much? We think so. While this is the first time since 2002 that a team at 5-0 or better has been a double digit dog to a team with two or more losses, that last instance saw the underdog (Notre Dame) pull an outright upset. Liberty averages 40 points/game, so it’s going to be hard for Virginia Tech to score enough to cover the number in this one. Sure, the Hokies will probably hold the Flames under their season scoring average, but they are still going to have to score a lot of points. Liberty is going to put up a fair number here as Va Tech has allowed at least 31 points in half of its games. The Hokies gave up almost 550 total yards last week to Louisville. They allowed well over 600 to North Carolina. Liberty may not be UNC but they are good enough to cover the spot. Play on LIBERTY AAA |
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11-07-20 | West Virginia v. Texas -6.5 | Top | 13-17 | Loss | -107 | 98 h 4 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TEXAS Texas was overrated at the start of the season, but now we’re getting a pretty good value on the Longhorns as they prepare to host West Virginia this Saturday. The ‘Horns have lost twice but easily could have won both of those games. The Oklahoma game went to four overtimes while the TCU game saw UT fumble at the goal line. Now UT has won twice in overtime so far, including last week’s 41-34 upset of Oklahoma State. But we don’t think you can trust a WVU side that has lost both of its road games thus far. The Mountaineers are off their best win so far, 37-10 over Kansas State, but the Wildcats were playing with a backup QB. Texas went to Morgantown last year and won easily, 42-31. Based on that, you’d think they should easily win in Austin. QB Sam Ehlinger hasn’t played as well as some would hope, but the Longhorns offense still averages 44.3 points/game, which is 10th best in the entire country right now. WVU just isn’t very good on the road and getting this number on the “right side” of 7 seems ideal. Play on TEXAS AAA |
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11-06-20 | BYU v. Boise State +3 | Top | 51-17 | Loss | -105 | 84 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BOISE STATE Undefeated BYU (7-0) is set for its toughest test of 2020 when they hit the blue turf in Boise Friday night. Boise State is also undefeated, although just 2-0 (both straight up and against the spread). BYU is 6-1 ATS but it’s really important to look at who they’ve played. Other than Houston, most of the opponents can be found near the bottom of the FBS power rankings. They have been a two touchdown favorite (or more) in five games and a 24 (or more) point favorite in four games. The last two weeks they were favored by 29 and 30.5 points at home vs. Texas State and Western Kentucky. Boise State is the best team they will play all season. The Broncos are not used to being home underdogs. This is only the second time it’s happened in the regular season in the last 15 years. The other time was two years ago vs. Fresno State and they won that game outright, 24-17, getting 2.5 points. Not only is this a chance for Boise State to knock off a 7-0 team, it’s a revenge spot too. BYU gave them their only regular season loss last year 28-25 in Provo. The Cougars are 0-5 all-time here in Boise though. Play on BOISE STATE AAA |
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11-05-20 | Utah State v. Nevada -15.5 | Top | 9-34 | Win | 100 | 57 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NEVADA Nevada should run wild in this Thursday night matchup. They are 2-0 and up against a Utah State team that hasn’t been able to stop anyone so far. The winless Aggies are allowing 40 points/game. Nevada has scored 37 points in both of its wins. The Wolf Pack defense should also get a chance to “show off” Thursday as the Utah State offense has only been able to manage 20 points in two games. Nevada is a team that has been able to cover six of its last seven games (going back to last season) including both so far in 2020. They are led by QB Strong who is completing 75% of his passes with zero interceptions. He has 770 yards passing in two games. Last week vs. UNLV, Strong and this Nevada offense gained 9.2 yards/play! The Wolf Pack have revenge for a 36-10 loss on the road to Utah State last season. That was a much stronger Utah State team, however. This year should be a Nevada blowout. Utah State is only 7-19 ATS its last 26 times as an underdog. Play on NEVADA AAA |
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11-04-20 | Ball State v. Miami-OH -2 | Top | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 33 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MIAMI OH In case you forgot, Miami won the MAC last year. They are on a 23-8 SU run in conference play and have won eight in a row at home, which is where they open the season. The RedHawks had a lead in every game in 2019 and will return a bulk of the players from that team. The season opens with Ball State visiting Oxford and Miami certainly remembers how it lost to the Cardinals in last year’s regular season finale. With the MAC East already clinched, they led 27-14 at halftime and decided to pull starters. From that point on, Ball State had a 17-1 edge in first downs and won 41-27. Ball State had plenty of offense last year, but also gave up 31.4 points/game. They did not have a good record in close games (while Miami did). Still, even if you think that was a case of “bad luck,” this line seems short given the offensive talent Miami returns. They are 8-2 ATS the L10 home games and 14-4 ATS L18 conference games. Play on MIAMI OHIO AAA |
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11-04-20 | Western Michigan v. Akron +18 | Top | 58-13 | Loss | -107 | 32 h 7 m | Show |
This is an 8* on AKRON Since going 13-1 in 2016 under PJ Fleck, Western Michigan has lost six games each of its three seasons under Tim Lester. The team was probably better than 7-6 a season ago, but the Broncos probably shouldn't be expected to win big Wednesday even though the opponent is Akron. The Zips did not win a single game in 2019 (0-12) under Tim Arth, but should be a lot more competitive this year. They are certainly more experienced. Kato Nelson is a good QB with a solid receiving corps to throw to. The defense has 11 of its top 16 tacklers back. Western Michigan is breaking in a new starting QB and RB. This most unusual offseason and the fact they open on the road have us believing the Broncos may struggle more than expected in this one. They are just 1-7 ATS their last eight road games and 1-5 ATS their last six times as a road favorite. Play on AKRON AAA |
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10-31-20 | LSU -2.5 v. Auburn | Top | 11-48 | Loss | -118 | 101 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LSU LSU is still being penalized for its two early season losses. The defensive showings vs. Mississippi State and Missouri were definitely both bad, but let’s not forget the extenuating circumstances of that game vs. Mizzou, which was moved from Baton Rouge to Columbia because of the hurricane. Even without starting QB Myles Brennan, the Tigers looked great last week in demolishing South Carolina 52-24. That performance was closer to what you should expect from the Tigers as opposed to those two losses. LSU definitely can score no matter who the QB is. Freshman TJ Finley looked great last week, so if he’s called on again, we expect him to answer the bell. The Tigers are averaging 42.0 points/game and have scored at least 41 each of the last three games. Auburn has not been impressive so far as they are lucky to even be 3-2. They could have easily lost games vs. Arkansas and Ole Miss and have been outgained on the season. QB Bo Nix is inconsistent and will be facing a defense that has already forced 10 turnovers in four games. Auburn has zero turnovers in its three wins, but we are expecting them to give it away multiple times here. Play on LSU AAA |
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10-31-20 | Coastal Carolina -2.5 v. Georgia State | Top | 51-0 | Win | 100 | 97 h 55 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CC #20 Coastal Carolina stayed unbeaten last week with a 28-14 win over Georgia Southern. The defense certainly did its job in shutting the Eagles out in the second half while holding them to just 218 total yards for the game. The Chanticleers won despite not having QB Grayson McCall. You’ll want to note that his backup, Fred Payton, threw three touchdown passes last week. That’s really not too surprising as Payton has started 10 games over the previous two seasons. Coach Jamey Chadwell is “cautiously optimistic” that McCall will return this week, but either way we’re in on the Chanticleers to get the victory over Georgia State. The Panthers have lost 7 of 10 to teams with winning records and already have suffered close losses to Louisiana and Arkansas State this season. They were also outgained 447-379 by Troy last week in a 36-34 win. The defense has given up nearly 1,000 passing yards its last two games! The offense is missing a starting receiver. Georgia State has never beaten a ranked team before while CC has won 5 of its last 6 games where the line is three points or less. Play on COASTAL CAROLINA AAA |
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10-31-20 | Temple +4.5 v. Tulane | Top | 3-38 | Loss | -110 | 97 h 54 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TEMPLE Tulane is just 2-4 thus far so we don’t think they are a very strong candidate to be laying points right now. They have blown big leads in two of those losses, to Navy and Houston, but also had a big rally of their own to defeat South Alabama. Half of their games have been decided by a field goal. They’ve also lost three in a row, two of those coming by at least 17 points. The defense is giving up a lot of points, 35.3 per game to be exact, so Temple should be able to score enough to stay within the number this week. Now the Owls could easily be 0-3 if not for their own rally vs. South Florida. But they only lost by two at Navy and then were more competitive than the scoreboard showed vs. Memphis last week. They had the yardage edge and more first downs. They actually gained 500 yards for the game. The problem was they turned the ball over four times. We mentioned the Tulane defense is giving up a lot of points. Well, they are also giving up lots of yards. Over the last three games, they’ve allowed 1,746 total yards! They gave up 689 to UCF last week. This is a game where you’ll want to take the points. Play on TEMPLE AAA |
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10-31-20 | Purdue -6.5 v. Illinois | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 97 h 54 m | Show |
This is an 8* on PURDUE Purdue opened its season with a bit of an upset. They beat Iowa 24-20 as a 3.5-point home dog, scoring a late TD to get the win. Consider that they were without their best player (WR Rondale Moore) and head coach Jeff Brohm due to COVID-19. While it remains unclear if Moore is going to be back this week, Brohm is planning on being back on the sidelines. The Boilermakers certainly have enough pieces to dominate lowly Illinois, who lost 45-7 to Wisconsin last week. The only Illini touchdown came from the defense and now they go up against a team that allowed just three points in the second half last week. This is also a revenge game for Purdue as they shockingly lost to Illinois, 24-6, last season. They haven’t beaten the Boilermakers back to back years since 2001-02. Not only was the offense non-existent for the Illini last week, the defense was also bad. They forced just one incompletion on 21 attempts! Play on PURDUE AAA |
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10-30-20 | Hawaii -1.5 v. Wyoming | Top | 7-31 | Loss | -109 | 83 h 41 m | Show |
This is an 8* on HAWAII It feels good to have LATE night action during the week, thanks to the Mountain West getting its season underway. Hawaii will be looking to start 2-0 while Wyoming is hoping to avoid 0-2. Hawaii won 34-19 last week over Fresno State, really running over the Bulldogs defense. Not only did they run for over six yards per carry, but the Warriors finished the game with 323 yards rushing and 552 yards total! Stopping the run wasn’t an issue for the Wyoming defense last week, but it did allow 420 yards passing as it fell 37-34 in overtime at Nevada, a game they closed as 2.5-point favorites. It is important to note that the Cowboys only lead in that game came in overtime when they kicked a field goal after the first possession. They quickly gave up the game-winning touchdown not long after. At one point, Wyoming was down as much as 22 points. But the big news coming out of the game was the leg injury to QB Sean Chambers that probably will cause him to miss the rest of the season. Remember that Hawaii won 10 games last year and appeared in the Conference Title Game. Todd Graham takes over for Nick Rolovich (who went to Washington State) and should do well here. We know they came back last week, but losing Chambers is a huge blow to Wyoming’s season. Play on HAWAII AAA |
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10-29-20 | Colorado State -1.5 v. Fresno State | Top | 17-38 | Loss | -109 | 59 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* on Colo State So Colorado State did not play last week. Fresno State did. The reason for that discrepancy is that CSU’s game at New Mexico was waved off due to COVID. Fresno State probably wishes it had not played as they were a 34-19 loser to Hawaii. The Bulldogs actually took an early 7-0 lead in the game, scoring soon after a Hawaii turnover. But it was their own turnovers (four of them) that proved costly. Plus the defense was terrible, giving up 552 yards, 323 of which came on the ground. Both these Mountain West teams are breaking in first year coaches. Kalen DeBoer is already 0-1 for FSU, Steve Addazio is now looking to avoid the same start in Fort Collins. The Rams won this game last year, 41-31, despite being a 13.5-point underdog. That was right here in Fresno. CSU has now beaten Fresno State three years in a row, scoring 34 or more points every time. The Rams have covered five in a row as favorites, which they are here thanks to a line move. They are also 8-2 ATS L10 Thursday games. Play on COLORADO STATE AAA |
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10-24-20 | Georgia State v. Troy -2.5 | Top | 36-34 | Loss | -110 | 102 h 4 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TROY Troy is 3-1 with the three wins all coming against bad teams and the loss being to BYU. They shouldn’t have much trouble defeating a Georgia State team that is simply not very good on the road. The Panthers, now 1-2, gave up 59 points in a loss at Arkansas State last Thursday. It was their second “close” conference loss (also lost 34-31 to Louisiana in OT) but the bottom line is they are now just 2-11 SU L13 road games. We faded them at Arkansas State, noting GSU was listed as a home underdog against East Carolina several weeks ago. Though they did win that game 49-29, it says a lot when you’re an underdog at home to East Carolina. As mentioned at the outset of the analysis, Troy has handled its business as a favorite this year, winning all three times in that role. While they only beat Eastern Kentucky by two, the other two wins were by 33 and 20 points. Georgia State’s defense is allowing over 40 PPG so far and the team/coaching staff has been impacted by COVID-19. Can’t see them winning here. Play on TROY AAA |
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10-24-20 | Virginia Tech -9 v. Wake Forest | Top | 16-23 | Loss | -110 | 102 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* on VA TECH Virginia Tech is 3-1 and coming off an impressive 40-14 win over Boston College last Saturday night. The Hokies have scored 38 or more in every game this season. They now face a Wake Forest team that’s won two in a row after an 0-2 start. The Demon Deacons have put up 40 or more in three straight games themselves, but were also the clear beneficiaries of a +3 turnover margin in last week’s 40-23 upset of Virginia. The WF defense is going to have all sorts of problems stopping the run this weekend. They gave up 270 yards rushing to NC State and 218 more to Virginia. Led by Kansas transfer Khalil Herbert, Va Tech has run for at least 260 yards in every game. Wake has covered just once in its last six tries as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points. They are also just 2-4 ATS coming off back to back wins. The only time that the Demon Deacons have beaten Va Tech in the last five meetings was an ugly 6-3 win back in 2014. The Hokies won 38-17 last season in Blacksburg and not enough has changed on the WF side to convince us this one will go much better. Lay the points! Play on VIRGINIA TECH AAA |
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10-24-20 | Florida Atlantic v. Marshall -16 | Top | 9-20 | Loss | -110 | 101 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 9* on MARSHALL Marshall, along with Arkansas, is one of two 4-0 ATS teams in the country. The Thundering Herd are also 4-0 straight up though and winning in convincing fashion. They’ve posted four double digit victories, the most recent being 35-17 over Louisiana Tech last weekend, while outgaining the opposition by an average of nearly 156 yards/game. We still don’t know a ton about this week’s opponent, Florida Atlantic, who has played just one game thus far. That one game was an uninspiring 21-17 win over Charlotte, which was at home and saw FAU get outgained by almost 100 yards. Marshall is 6-1 all-time vs. FAU with a 36-31 win last year in Boca Raton. The Herd come in averaging 37.3 points per contest and 213.8 yards rushing per game. The one game that FAU played was three weeks ago, so simple stuff like tackling on defense could be an issue for them. The Owls were actually down 21-7 at home in that game vs. Charlotte. Marshall is ranked and a pretty strong team at home. The defense allowed just 7 yards rushing last week and has given up only 38 points on the year! FAU is nowhere near as good as they were last year under Lane Kiffin. Play on MARSHALL AAA |
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10-24-20 | Auburn -3 v. Ole Miss | Top | 35-28 | Win | 100 | 98 h 5 m | Show |
This is an 8* on AUBURN Two SEC teams coming off misleading (and probably undeserved) losses last week meet here in Oxford. Auburn lost 30-23 to South Carolina last week, despite leading the whole first half and outgaining the Gamecocks 481-297 for the game. That loss dropped the Tigers to 2-2 and they’d be 1-3 if not for a lucky break against Arkansas. Speaking of Arkansas, Ole Miss’ result from last Saturday was even more misleading as they lost 33-21 to the Razorbacks despite having the edge in total yards. The Rebels turned it over SEVEN times, which was their undoing. In this battle of desperate teams, we like the visitors to walk away with the victory as Ole Miss is ranked last in the country in scoring defense, giving up 47 points/game. Auburn’s run game has gone for 259 and 209 yards the last two weeks behind back Tank Bigsby. That’s how we think they’ll control this one. Can’t see Gus Mahlzan’s team losing two in a row as favorites. Off an SEC loss, Auburn is 8-1 SU the last three seasons. They are also 33-11 all-time vs. Mississippi and won four straight years. Play on AUBURN AAA |
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10-24-20 | NC State +17.5 v. North Carolina | Top | 21-48 | Loss | -117 | 98 h 5 m | Show |
This is an 8* on NC STATE The “Mack Brown express” ran into a brick wall last weekend, losing 31-28 to 1-win Florida State as a 2 TD road favorite. North Carolina came into that game ranked #5 in the country, but obviously tumbled down the polls by losing to a team that had yet to beat a FBS opponent this season. The Tar Heels return home to Chapel Hill this week, to face in-state rival NC State, who will be without their QB Devin Leary. Because Leary is out, this line has been steamed up to the point the Wolfpack are now a solid value plus the points. While it’s never good to be without your starting QB, NC State has an experienced backup in Bailey Hockman. The North Carolina defense has been gashed the last two weeks, first giving up 45 to Virginia Tech, then 31 in the first half to Florida State. NC State is 4-1 and off three consecutive victories, two of them coming as underdogs. They aren’t going to roll over without Leary. Take away the Virginia Tech game and North Carolina is averaging only 28.3 points in its other three contests this year. We don’t think they can score enough to cover the large spread this week. Play on NC STATE AAA |
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10-23-20 | UL-Lafayette v. UAB -1.5 | Top | 24-20 | Loss | -110 | 82 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UAB This is a rare non-conference showdown this season, pitting top teams from the Sun Belt and Conference USA. Louisiana came in with a lot of hype this year after winning 11 games in 2019. They opened 2020 with an upset of Iowa State, but haven’t looked impressive since then. They’ve now been outgained in 3 of 4 games, including the win over Iowa State, and are off a loss - 30-27 to Coastal Carolina - where they were nine-point home favorites. Proud to report we were on the dog in that one as we told you that Louisiana’s two prior wins had been by 2 points and 3 in overtime. They trailed for most of those games (against Georgia State and Georgia Southern). Now the Cajuns must deal with a UAB squad that is 4-1, the only loss coming to Miami FL. The Blazers also played for their conference championship last season and have won three straight in fairly impressive fashion. They beat Western Kentucky 37-14 on Saturday for their 21st consecutive win at home. As you can see, this game takes place in Birmingham. The big problem for Louisiana so far is that they are giving up almost 200 yards/game on the ground. That’s a problem vs. UAB, who averages 175 rush yards/game and is 19th in the country in yards/carry. The UAB defense has allowed an average of just 12.3 points the L3 weeks. Play on UAB AAA |
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10-22-20 | Arkansas State v. Appalachian State -10.5 | Top | 17-45 | Win | 100 | 58 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* on APP STATE Appalachian State finally gets to return to the field after a several week hiatus. The last time the Mountaineers played a game was September 22nd vs. Campbell, which was a 52-21 win. They host SunBelt foe Arkansas State on Thursday night. The Red Wolves were a winner for us last Thursday, outlasting Georgia State in a wild 59-52 affair, which was their second straight game scoring 50 or more. But they can expect far more resistance in this one, facing a Mountaineers defense that is giving up just 19.3 points/game so far. The most points allowed by App State through three games is 21. Perhaps it’s because they are 0-3 ATS, but this line clearly opened too low. As good as the Arkansas State passing attack has been this year, they couldn’t run the ball against Georgia State (just 1.5 yards/carry) and the defense was atrocious. The defensive coordinator and another coach were both let go with the Red Wolves allowing 481.8 yards/game (worst in the Sun Belt) and 39.8 points/game (2nd worst). App State should be able to run the ball at will in this game as they come in as the number five rushing team in the country at 269.3 yards/game. Play on APPALACHIAN STATE AAA |
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10-17-20 | Georgia v. Alabama -6 | Top | 24-41 | Win | 100 | 101 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 9* on ALABAMA Alabama may not have a good recent history as a home favorite of 7 points or less (0-4-1 ATS with four outright losses), but what the Crimson Tide do have here is some serious motivation, coming off last week’s lackadaisical defensive effort vs. Ole Miss. The Tide gave up 48 points and more than 600 yards in one of the worst efforts of the Saban era. With Saban himself testing positive for COVID-19, everyone seems to be counting out Bama this week against Georgia, but not us. The Tide looked just fine to us the first two games, so we’ll call last week a bad matchup. Saban has even suggested Lane Kiffin (former assistant) may have known Bama’s defensive signals. Georgia’s offense is struggling to run the ball, averaging only 3.8 yards/carry. Alabama QB Mac Jones is completing almost 80% of his passes. Saban’s absence from the sidelines would loom large Saturday night in Tuscaloosa, but the home team will still find a way to win … and cover. Play on ALABAMA AAA |
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10-17-20 | Boston College +12 v. Virginia Tech | Top | 14-40 | Loss | -110 | 101 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BOSTON COLLEGE Just how LETHAL has Boston College been as an underdog? Well, they are already 3-0 ATS this season when taking points. That includes outright wins over Duke when they were +6 (won 26-6) and last week against Pitt when they were +6.5 (won 31-30 in OT). The only non-cover for BC this season was in an uninspiring non-conference game vs. Texas State, which they won 24-21. Going back several seasons, the Eagles are now 20-5-1 ATS their L26 ACC games. As an underdog, that record jumps to 17-2-1 ATS and they’ve won 11 times outright! That can’t be music to the ears of Virginia Tech, who just gave up 56 points last week at North Carolina and is 1-6 ATS the last seven times it has been installed as a double digit favorite. Keep in mind that BC held North Carolina to only 26 points and almost beat them earlier this month. While it’s true Virginia Tech is now healthier at QB and can run the ball, this BC defense hasn’t given up more than 26 points in regulation all year. That BC is 3-0 ATS as a dog despite no real running game of their own is impressive. They are now a passing offense with Notre Dame transfer Phil Jurkovec averaging nearly 300 yards/game. Play on BOSTON COLLEGE AAA |
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10-17-20 | Virginia -3 v. Wake Forest | Top | 23-40 | Loss | -105 | 97 h 51 m | Show |
This is an 8* on VIRGINIA Virginia played a really sloppy game last week against NC State, which is why they lost 38-21 as a seven-point home favorite. But please do not make the mistake of judging that game by its final score. The Cavaliers outgained the Wolfpack 405-363. So how did they lose by 17, you ask? Turnovers. There were four of them by UVA (only 1 by NC State). All were costly, especially a late pick-six that broke the game open. Turning it over on downs in the 4Q led to another late NC State TD. This week the Cavaliers are at Wake Forest, who is off a bye, but also is 0-2 vs. the ACC. The Demon Deacons got predictably blown out by Clemson then lost 45-42 at NC State. Their only win was against FCS Campbell. So both teams losses were to the same two teams (with both covering vs. Clemson), the only difference is Virginia actually beat an ACC team (Duke) rather than a FCS one. We know there are some question marks at QB for the Cavaliers (Brennan Armstrong got knocked out of last week’s game with a concussion, another bad break), but backup Lindell Stone looked good enough (save for the pick-six). No matter who is the QB, look for the road team to win Saturday afternoon. Wake Forest’s defense is the worst in the ACC on third down (52.4% conversion rate) while Virginia’s defense is great at stopping the run (allows only 3.4 yds/carry). Play on VIRGINIA AAA |
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10-17-20 | South Florida +11 v. Temple | Top | 37-39 | Win | 100 | 93 h 54 m | Show |
This is an 8* on USF Last week, we told you to fade Temple in its very first game of the season. The Owls lost, 31-29, to a Navy team that had really been struggling this season. While a late 2-pt try could have tied it, Temple never led in the contest, though it did outgain the Midshipmen. Still, that “moral victory” will be of no use here as the Owls are being asked to lay double digits, something they are clearly not ready to do at this juncture of the season. South Florida has been bad, losing three straight by 20 or more points. But two of those were against really good teams (Notre Dame, Cincinnati). We don’t know what to say about last week’s 44-24 home loss to East Carolina. The Bulls secondary actually held up against both ranked opponents and is allowing only 6.6 yards per attempt this year. Including an ATS win at Cincinnati, USF is 5-1 ATS off its previous six ATS defeats, so they tend to bounce back from disappointing efforts. This is enough points for us to feel comfortable in selecting a pretty desperate underdog. Play on USF AAA |
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10-17-20 | Clemson -26.5 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 73-7 | Win | 100 | 28 h 27 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CLEMSON While Clemson had been winning comfortably, they were 0-3 ATS heading into last week’s heavily hyped showdown with Miami. On Saturday night, the Tigers reminded us all why they are considered one of the elite CFB programs in this country. They blew the doors off the Hurricanes, winning 42-17, and easily covered the 14-point spread. Even after a high profile win such as that, Clemson shouldn’t have much trouble covering this larger spread this week at Georgia Tech. Not only are the Yellow Jackets 0-5 ATS their L5 vs. ranked opponents, they have failed to cover all four times in program history when they’ve been an underdog of at least 27 points. Clemson is 16-5 ATS L21 ACC games and 18-7 ATS its last 25 times as a double digit favorite. The last two years, they’ve beaten Georgia Tech 49-21 and 52-14. The Yellow Jackets defense has been really bad this season, even giving up 37 to Syracuse. Last Friday’s 46-27 win over Louisville was a completely misleading final score. The Jackets were actually outgained (gave up 471 yards) but got lucky with a +3 turnover differential. Clemson won’t be so generous here. Play on CLEMSON AAA |
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10-15-20 | Georgia State v. Arkansas State -3.5 | Top | 52-59 | Win | 100 | 53 h 51 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ARKANSAS STATE Arkansas State (2-2) holds a win over Kansas State, which is looking more and more impressive as time wears on. (Kansas State has since gone 3-0 with a win over Oklahoma). The Red Wolves did get their doors blown off at Coastal Carolina, but finally got a home game last Saturday and in it defeated Central Arkansas 50-27. While that’s a FCS team, the Red Wolves have obviously proven they can beat a good team. They are 3-0 ATS besides the games vs. Coastal Carolina, who may be a better team that most realize. As for Georgia State, we know they almost upset Sun Belt standard bearer Louisiana. But they lost that game in overtime. That was almost a month ago. The Panthers’ lone other contest took place 12 days ago and they had little problem beating East Carolina 49-29. That they were 17-point underdogs to Louisiana and a slight underdog at home to ECU should tell you what the market thinks of them. Now COVID-19 played a role in those lines, but we think they are getting a bit too much respect Thursday in Jonesboro. GSU is just 2-10-2 ATS its L14 road games. They won’t win here. Play on ARKANSAS STATE AAA |
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10-14-20 | Coastal Carolina +7.5 v. UL-Lafayette | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 30 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* on Coastal Carolina Louisiana won 11 games last year and is currently unbeaten and ranked #21 in the country. They defeated nationally ranked Iowa State in their season opener. But the resume for this Ragin Cajun team isn’t as rosy as you might think. They have been outgained in two of their three games, including the upset of Iowa State, and their last two wins have been by 2 points and 3 in overtime. They did not come close to covering the 17-point spread vs. Georgia State nor the 12-point spread vs. Georgia Southern, even trailing outright for a considerable portion of those two games. In comes Sun Belt rival Coastal Carolina, who is also 3-0 on the road. The Chanticleers have also beaten a Big 12 team this year (Kansas) and scored 95 points in the two wins since. They’ve had excellent line play on both sides of the football. Throw in the fact this game has had to be moved twice and you’ve got all the makings of an upset Wednesday night on ESPN2. Coastal Carolina has covered each of the last four tries as a road underdog while Louisiana is 0-4 ATS the L4 times it has been a favorite. Play on Coastal Carolina AAA |
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