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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-31-20 | San Diego v. San Francisco -12.5 | Top | 62-70 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SAN FRANCISCO San Francisco has been far more “active” than San Diego heading into the WCC opener for both teams. The Dons have played 10 games thus far, though only one of those came here at home. They are 6-4 with two of the losses coming fairly recently, on the road against Pac 12 schools (Cal and Oregon). Their most recent game was a 68-65 victory over Grand Canyon University. San Diego is just 1-3 and the last time we saw them (12 days ago), they were being blown out (by 32 points) at UC Irvine. That doesn’t bode well for the Toreros today. They’ve lost two of their three road games by at least 27 points. USF should be quite thrilled to be playing at home on New Year’s Eve. In their only home game thus far, the Dons put up 107 points on Long Beach State. So far they’ve won three times by at least 25 points. So lay the double digit spread in this one. Play on SAN FRANCISCO AAA |
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12-31-20 | Minnesota v. Wisconsin UNDER 143 | Top | 59-71 | Win | 100 | 9 h 0 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER Minnesota has had a very impressive last three games as they’ve knocked off St. Louis (who was undefeated at the time), Iowa (a top 10 team) and Michigan State (by 25 points). However, all three of those wins did come at home. Tonight they hit the road to face Wisconsin and the Golden Gophers certainly hope this goes better than their only previous road game did. A 92-65 loss at Illinois is the only blemish on Minnesota’s resume this season and while losing to one of the best teams in the country isn’t a big deal, getting blown out is never a good look. Wisconsin isn’t going to be in a good mood here as they are off a loss to Maryland which snapped a 5-0 SU and ATS run. Both teams have been going Over a lot recently, but we see that changing here as the Badgers allow just 57.9 points/game at home. This will be Minnesota’s fifth consecutive game against a team that entered either unbeaten or ranked in the Top 15. These teams met twice last season and the totals for those games were 129 and 125.5. This one is much higher. Wisconsin plays at a very slow pace and Minnesota, who has been getting to the FT line A LOT lately, won’t get there as much today. Play on UNDER AAA |
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12-30-20 | La Salle v. Dayton -12 | Top | 67-65 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
This is an 8* on DAYTON We don’t anticipate Dayton having any problems with A-10 rival LaSalle on Wednesday. The Flyers are double digit favorites here for a reason, namely a 33-5 SU home record the L3 seasons. Quietly, they’ve also gone 54-14 SU overall during that time frame. They are off to a 4-1 start this year, the only loss coming by two points. Every Dayton game has been decided by six points or less with four of them decided by a total of 11 points. But the two most recent wins both came against SEC teams. LaSalle is not a good team as they are 3-5 and really struggling to score when not at home. The Explorers come in averaging only 60.8 points/game when playing on the road or at a neutral site. That’s problematic considering Dayton only allows 62.7 points/game at home. The last two meetings between these two sides have seen the Flyers prevail by 26 and 31 points. LaSalle scored only 39 and 58 points. It’s gonna get ugly again tonight. Play on DAYTON AAA |
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12-30-20 | Seton Hall v. Xavier OVER 144 | Top | 85-68 | Win | 100 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Seton Hall probably won’t be the least bit bothered by being the underdog in this game. The Pirates are a perfect 10-0 ATS the past three seasons as a road dog of 3.5 to 6 points. Furthermore, they are catching Xavier off its first loss of the season. The Musketeers went down at the hands of #11 Creighton, 66-61, but did at least cover as 7-pt underdogs. These teams met twice last season with the road team, an underdog each time, winning both games. But Seton Hall plus the points isn’t the best course of action tonight, rather it’s playing the Over. Xavier has been a bit of a “scoring machine” as it is averaging 81.6 points/game for the year and 85.1 points/game at home. Seton Hall is averaging 76.7 points/game and gives up 77.0 on the road. This is a game where both teams seem destined to score over 70 points. Considering that, the O/U looks to be too low. The Over is 4-0 the last four times Xavier has been off a SU loss. Play on OVER AAA |
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12-29-20 | Florida State +1.5 v. Clemson | Top | 67-77 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* on FSU Clemson’s only loss this season came exactly two weeks ago when they visited Virginia Tech. So far that is the Tigers’ only road game and it’s their only ACC game as well. They bounced back from that defeat last Monday by beating Morehead State 66-51 and while they did lead by as many as 24 in the second half, they ended up not coming close to covering the 26-point spread. Tonight they face #18 Florida State, who also has just one loss on the year. Like Clemson, the Seminoles are off a win following a loss. They lost to UCF, 86-74 at home, before bouncing back against Gardner Webb last Monday. They also did not cover a large spread last time out. While this will be the Noles first true road test and they are just 6-17 ATS L23 visits to Death Valley, we like them getting points in this spot. Last season, they were favored to win here (lost by 1) and also beat the Tigers by 18 down in Tallahassee. FSU is on an 8-5 ATS run as underdogs with six outright victories. This is the first time they have gotten points in 2020. Save for the loss to UCF, FSU’s defense has been good in every game this season and they are the best team Clemson will have faced so far. Play on FLORIDA STATE AAA |
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12-28-20 | Fresno State v. Colorado State UNDER 141 | Top | 53-75 | Win | 100 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Fresno State and Colorado State haven’t played all that much this season. In fact, Fresno has played just twice - both games against non-board teams (William Jessup and Fresno Pacific). So the fact they are 2-0 really doesn’t mean much coming into the MWC opener. Colorado State is 3-1, their only loss coming in a putrid offensive effort vs. St. Mary’s where they scored all of 33 points. Under is our call in this one as neither team is in much of a rhythm right now. Against Fresno Pacific, who is not even a Division I team, Fresno State could only muster 39.1% shooting from the field, which is just terrible. On the bright side, they’ve held both opponents this year below 35% shooting. Colorado State has held its last three opponents all below 37%. That one stinker vs. St. Mary’s is obviously holding the Rams’ offensive numbers down. But this isn’t really a great offensive team by any stretch. Facing a “real” team for the 1st time this year will be a shock for Fresno State and this game stays Under. Play on UNDER AAA |
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12-27-20 | Evansville v. Southern Illinois -7.5 | Top | 57-63 | Loss | -118 | 6 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SIU Southern Illinois is one of three Missouri Valley teams still without a loss. The Salukis are 6-0 SU, 5-0 ATS and now begin conference play with a home game against Evansville. We’re no strangers to the Purple Aces as on Monday we won our 10* Total of the Week in their game at Belmont, which was a 72-63 loss for them. That dropped them to 2-4 on the year and both wins were by just three points at home. SIU enters in off its most impressive win to date, a 76-73 upset of Butler as a 9.5-point road underdog. We look for them to handle their business today in Carbondale where three of their four victories this season have been by double digits. SIU has won all four meetings against Evansville the past two seasons with the last one coming by 17 point (that was here at home). Evansville is 5-25 SU its last 30 road games. Play on SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AAA |
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12-26-20 | Indiana v. Illinois -7 | Top | 60-69 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ILLINOIS Being ranked #18 in the country isn’t a bad place to be, but we think even more highly of Illinois. Yes, they’ve already lost three times, but two were three-point games and all three were on the road. Saturday has them welcoming Indiana to Champaign-Urbana in a battle of two of the Big 10 teams that did not play on Christmas Day. Indiana is off a loss, a bad one at that, as they were nine-point favorites against a Northwestern team that beat them 74-67 in Bloomington. That was their third loss so far. As tempting as it may be to take the points in the gritty Big 10, the Fighting Illini are the play here. They’ve won their four home games by an average of 37.5 points. They also just beat Penn State by 17 on the road. As long as they don’t give up 75 points, the Illini are unbeaten in 2020. Indiana averages 72.5 points/game and has been held below 70 in four of its last six. Not enough firepower on the Hoosiers bench to keep up with an Illini team that’s shot better than 50% each of its last five games. Play on ILLINOIS AAA |
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12-23-20 | Towson v. George Mason OVER 137.5 | Top | 65-70 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER It’s not been a strong start to the year for Towson, although that was probably to be expected as Tigers’ first three games have come against Virginia, San Francisco and Buffalo. They were the dog in all three games and are a predictable 0-3. It’s been almost a MONTH since we’ve seen them, due to COVID cancellations. Their ATS record is also 0-3. George Mason is also 0-3 ATS, although they did win their last two games SU - beating Howard and VMI. The Patriots’ schedule has obviously been a lot less challenging than Towson’s, however there are several suspensions that GMU is currently dealing with. We like this game to go Over as it’s a low total and the shooting from both sides is due for improvement. Towson has made less than 40% of its field goal attempts thus far, which is insane. They have allowed at least 74 points in every game and unfortunately (for them), we don’t see that changing. George Mason gave up 77 and 70 its first two games. Play on OVER AAA |
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12-22-20 | Texas Tech -1.5 v. Oklahoma | Top | 69-67 | Win | 100 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TEX TECH Texas Tech looks to bounce back from its second defeat of the season here as they travel to Norman to face Oklahoma. The Red Raiders lost by just 1 point to Kansas at home, but we still consider them to be one of the premier teams in the country. So do the oddsmakers by having them favored in this spot. Oklahoma is 5-1, but that one loss was really bad as they were blown out 99-77 by Xavier. That’s been the only real test thus far for the Sooners and they failed it miserably. They did win at TCU, but Texas Tech is a lot better than both TCU and Xavier. Offense isn’t always pretty for the Red Raiders but they come in as the #1 rated team in defensive efficiency in the entire country. Considering OU made only 5 three-pointers against Houston Baptist, a season-low, they figure to struggle from the perimeter again tonight. The Sooners are just 8-20 ATS off a SU win. Take the better team to win this nationally televised affair. Play on TEXAS TECH AAA |
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12-22-20 | Northern Illinois v. Toledo -14.5 | Top | 55-78 | Win | 100 | 6 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 9* on TOLEDO Northern Illinois just picked up its first win in six tries as they beat Chicago State 64-54 on Friday. But Chicago State is arguably the worst team in all of Division I College Basketball. The Huskies are still without an ATS win (0-6) this season as they were 16.5-point favorites in that last game. They were also favored in the first two games of the season. Here they are underdogs to a Toledo that has played only one bad game and that was against a superior Michigan squad. The Rockets enter in at 6-3 with the other two losses coming by two and three points. They’ve won five of the last six, Michigan being the lone defeat. Northern Illinois already has three 20+ point losses on its resume and we just don’t see them staying close Tuesday afternoon. Toledo has actually lost three in a row to NIU, so they are going to take this game lightly nor will they take it easy on their downtrodden conference foe. In three previous home games, the Rockets have allowed an average of just 58.3 points/game. Play on TOLEDO AAA |
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12-21-20 | Belmont v. Evansville UNDER 138 | Top | 72-63 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Belmont is off and running with a 7-1 start to the season. The Bruins are averaging 80 points/game. The only loss was a bit of a head-scratcher as they fell, as 17.5-point home favorites, to Samford. Of course, Samford is a team that scores plenty of points as was very obvious with that game ending up 96-83. Evansville isn’t going to score anywhere in that neighborhood, however. The Purple Aces are putting up an average of just 65.2 points in their five games so far and only one time have they topped 68. Evansville hasn’t shot well so far as they’re below 40% overall from the field. One area where they’ve REALLY struggled is defending the three-point line. Opponents are making 46% of their threes against the Purple Aces and the two previous teams that visited here hit 55% from behind the arc! You really can’t get any worse than that, so even if Evansville’s actual defense doesn’t improve, the opposition’s shooting will cool off regardless. Belmont is not a great three-point shooting team. This one stays Under. Play on UNDER AAA |
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12-21-20 | Morehead State v. Clemson -23.5 | Top | 51-66 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 59 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CLEMSON Though it’s basketball, the final margin of victory this afternoon in Death Valley should be something reminiscent of the Clemson football team. Tigers’ hoops is coming off its 1st loss of the season, 66-60 at Virginia Tech last Tuesday. That was after starting the year not just 5-0 straight up, but also 5-0 against the spread. They’re matched up with Morehead State today and obviously the underdog has little, if any, chance in this one. Previous visits to Kentucky and Ohio State went really poorly for the Eagles as they lost to those respective opponents by 36 and 33 points. Clemson is better than both Kentucky and OSU. The Tigers already have four P5 wins, so they’re not playing a cupcake schedule. Even more impressive is that three of those four wins came by double digits. The only time Clemson got to face a non-P5 foe, they won 75-38 (South Carolina St) and we expect something along those lines here. Play on CLEMSON AAA |
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12-20-20 | Michigan State -6.5 v. Northwestern | Top | 65-79 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MICH ST Michigan State is 6-0 and ranked #4 in the country. But they actually haven’t covered a spread since their 75-69 “upset” of Duke on the 1st of the month. But this 3-game ATS losing streak is easier to swallow when you consider Sparty has been favored by at least 23 points in all three of those games. They’ve won by exactly 18 points their last two times out. Tonight the number is more manageable against Northwestern, who is 3-1 and hasn’t faced anything close to the challenge they’re up against here. The mood in Evanston is certainly “down” after yesterday’s loss in the Big 10 Championship Game by the football team. Don’t look for any kind of “pick me up” from Chris Collins team. Michigan State is averaging nearly 85 points/game and beat Northwestern by 29 in the last meeting. Big 10 play did not go well for Northwestern last season. They were just 3-17 SU. The Wildcats three wins this year came against Ark Pine Bluff, Chicago State and Quincy College. Eight Spartans scored at least nine points in the last game. Play on MICHIGAN STATE AAA |
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12-19-20 | Coppin State v. Virginia Tech -26.5 | Top | 57-97 | Win | 100 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
This is an 8* on Va Tech After cashing a 38-point win last night, here’s another game on the College Basketball board that we feel will end up being not even remotely close. Va Tech can name the score Saturday as they host overmatched Coppin State. The Hokies just beat Clemson earlier this week, a nice bounce back from their only loss so far this season, which did come here in Blacksburg (to Penn State). Remember that Clemson is a top 25 team though, so that’s a really nice 66-60 win for Buzz Williams’ team. Coppin State is 1-5, their only win coming at home vs. UNC Greensboro. They lost by 17 at home to UMBC (remember them?) last time out - their 5th loss by double digits. This matchup ended up 74-42 (Va Tech, obviously) last year with the Hokies holding the Eagles below 20% shooting for the game. Should be more of the same today as Coppin State has looked REALLY bad thus far. Play on VIRGINIA TECH AAA |
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12-18-20 | Idaho v. Utah -22.5 | Top | 41-79 | Win | 100 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UTAH Utah should easily handle its business Friday night against an Idaho team playing its fifth consecutive road game to start the season. The visiting Vandals have lost three of those four games by double digit margins and consider none of the previous opponents are as strong as the Utes. Utah’s only loss so far was to a good BYU team. They bounced back by beating Utah Valley State 75-67 on Tuesday. While they did not cover, they improved to 3-0 SU here at home and have scored at least 75 points in all three of those games. Idaho comes in averaging just 59.0 points/game. Don’t let Utah’s three-game ATS losing skid scare you. The Utes are 33-17 ATS when taking the court on an ATS losing skid of three games or more. In that last game, they led by 21 at the half. We don’t think they take their foot off the gas this time. The Utes’ have the 8th best turnover margin in the country right now. Idaho’s forecast is not bright as they were predicted to finish LAST in the Big Sky this season. Play on UTAH AAA |
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12-17-20 | Dixie State v. Southern Utah -10 | Top | 78-85 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SOUTHERN UTAH Yes, Dixie State is a Division I school. And they are off to a 3-0 start to the season! Two of those three wins (N Dakota, Denver) were by a total of four points though. We all know the transition to DI won’t be easy for the Trailblazers so now seems like a good time to step in and fade them. Southern Utah is a solid 4-1 so far, although two of their wins were by exactly one point (both vs. Montana). Their only loss was by two points at Loyola Marymount, the opener of the season. The Thunderbirds are 3 for 3 at home and coming off a 10-point win over Utah Valley State. SUU has covered all four of its lined games. It’s somewhat amazing Dixie State was able to beat Denver on Saturday considering they were on the wrong end of a big FT shooting discrepancy. A key to their 3-0 record is their opponents have shot just 21.2% from three. That’s abnormally low. Southern Utah will do better. Much better. Play on SOUTHERN UTAH AAA |
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12-17-20 | Houston Baptist v. North Texas -23.5 | Top | 55-85 | Win | 100 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
This is an 8* on NORTH TEXAS North Texas is a big favorite Thursday. But for good reason as they are matched up against a subpar Houston Baptist team that figures to have all sorts of trouble keeping up here in Denton. Houston Baptist has actually done a decent job at covering the spread to this point. They are 4-1 ATS but were +28 or more in three of those games. Their only SU win this year was vs. Champion Baptist. All their losses have been by double digits, four of them by at least 22 points. This will be the second road game in three days after giving up 90 to Rice on Tuesday. The Huskies have also given up 100+ to both Arizona State and SMU. North Texas may not be as good as either of those squads, but the Mean Green are coming off an 81-56 win over Arkansas Pine Bluff. They’ve covered 7 of 10 as home favorites of 12.5 or more. They are 2-0 at home this season and the two wins have been by 54 and 25 points. Play on NORTH TEXAS AAA |
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12-17-20 | Kansas v. Texas Tech OVER 132.5 | Top | 58-57 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the OVER Considering Texas Tech’s defensive prowess, going Over might seem like a “play at your own risk” type situation. But a) the total is low here and b) Kansas can score. The Jayhawks have faced a lot of top teams already and are averaging 81.6 points/game. They are shooting nearly 40% from three! Last time out they went for 95 points. Yes, that was against a terrible Omaha team. But it was also the 4th game of 90 or more points for Kansas this season. We don’t need nearly that many for an Over tonight. Texas Tech has scored 80 or more in four of its seven games. Again, you’ve got to factor in the competition. But asking both Kansas and Tech to score 65 tonight doesn’t seem like it’s asking for much. Kansas likes to play fast, so it will be interesting if they can push the tempo. We think they will - at least enough to have an effect on the scoring. The Over is 6-2 the last eight times Kansas has been an underdog and 7-1 their last eight games vs. a team with a winning record. Texas Tech has that same record against .500 or better foes. Play on OVER AAA |
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12-16-20 | Toledo v. Marshall -6.5 | Top | 96-87 | Loss | -109 | 19 h 35 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MARSHALL Marshall (4-0) looks to stay unbeaten as Toledo pays a visit to Huntington Wednesday night. We like the home team’s chances as they’ve won all four games by double digits. Toledo has three losses and was beaten by 20 in their last road game. The other two losses were close, but the Rockets have lost both times they were an underdog. There will be no shortage of motivation from the Marshall side as the Thundering Herd have lost three straight times to Toledo. This triple revenge spot begs you to lay the points and we will as the Herd have allowed just 38.5% shooting thus far. They play at a very fast tempo, which will be too much for Toledo to deal with. This was the preseason favorite to win Conference USA, so they are not to be taken lightly. Lay it! Play on MARSHALL AAA |
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12-16-20 | Nebraska-Omaha v. Colorado -21 | Top | 49-91 | Win | 100 | 18 h 35 m | Show |
This is an 8* on COLORADO For the second time in three days, we’ll lay the points with Colorado. The Buffs easily covered for us Monday in an 81-45 win against Northern Colorado. They were 13.5-point favorites in that game. They’re even bigger favorites today, but of course that means it’s a weaker opponent as well. Omaha has failed to cover five straight and their only SU win during that time came by two against SIU Edwardsville. The other four games were all double digit losses, the most recent coming Friday when they fell by 45 at Kansas. Colorado isn’t Kansas, but they certainly can win this game by half that margin. It helps that Omaha is 3-8 ATS as a road underdog of more than 12.5 points and 0-3 when getting 18.5 to 24. Colorado’s three wins this season have come by an average of 25.7 points. They are 10th in the country, allowing just 55 points/game. Omaha has yet to score more than 67 in a game this year and their losses have come by an average of more than 22 points/game. Colorado’s lone defeat came at the hands of Top 25 Tennessee. Omaha is not even close to the caliber of Tennessee, obviously. Play on COLORADO AAA |
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12-15-20 | SE Missouri State v. Evansville -2.5 | Top | 63-66 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 9* on EVANSVILLE Two teams that have played a lot of close games thus far will face off tonight in Evansville. The host Purple Aces are looking to make it two in a row at home and they just defeated Eastern Illinois here, 68-65, as a 3.5-point underdog. Before that, they’d lost by 6 at Tenn-Martin (as a 4-point favorite) and Prairie View A&M by three (as a 2.5-pt dog). They’ve also been blown out by Louisville. So it was their first win last Wednesday. The last thing the Purple Aces want is another loss. SE Missouri State is coming off a home and home split with Lipscomb. They covered both games. Every Redhawks game thus far has been decided by eight points or less with the team’s record being 2-2 straight up (and 3-1 against the spread). Key for us is that Evansville has seen its shooting improve every game. SE Missouri State does not defend particularly well, so the Purple Aces are likely in store for their best shooting night of the season so far. Interesting that SE Missouri State has been an underdog in all four of its games. Can’t see a third upset in five games. Play on EVANSVILLE AAA |
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12-14-20 | Northern Colorado v. Colorado -13.5 | Top | 45-81 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
This is an 8* on COLORADO Northern Colorado may be 2-0, but we’d hardly call the likes of Colorado Christian and Regis (MA) “competition.” Here they are going up against the class of the Rocky Mountain State, Colorado, who will be angry coming off an ugly 56-47 loss at Tennessee last week. The Buffaloes were just plain “off” in Knoxville as they finished with a 33.3 field goal percentage. They missed 17 of 22 threes. It must be acknowledged though that Tennessee was the #12 ranked team in the country when that game was played. Just like the step up in class here for Northern Colorado, the step down for Colorado is just as big. The Buffs won their first two games by a combined 35 points and we should be looking at a similar margin here tonight in Boulder where they are 29-6 L35 games. This will be their first home game of the season as well. This one should get ugly in a hurry. Play on COLORADO AAA |
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12-14-20 | William & Mary v. George Washington UNDER 148 | Top | 85-84 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER William & Mary has played just one game so far and it was an 86-78 loss to old Colonial rival Old Dominion. The Tribe will now face the Colonials, although again not a conference rival, in George Washington Monday. GW is just 1-4 with the lone win coming against Coppin State. The other four games, losses to Navy, Hampton, UMBC and Delaware, have seen them give up lots of points. Truthfully, it’s been a terrible start for the Colonials. We would never lay points with them, at least right now, but do think the defense is going to improve. Honestly, they haven’t been that bad at the defensive end of the floor, save for the game where they got blitzed by UMBC. Three of the last four opponents have shot less than 41%. William & Mary won’t shoot 50% again like they did vs. ODU. This game was supposed to be played on December 5th, but got rescheduled because of COVID. It’s the first meeting in 17 years between the two Virginia schools. It’ll end up lower-scoring than expected. W&M is 5-1 Under as a road dog of 6.5 to 9 points. Play on UNDER AAA |
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12-12-20 | Florida v. Florida State -2.5 | Top | 71-83 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
This is an 8* on FLORIDA STATE It’s Florida and Florida State starting your Saturday in College Basketball. The two Sunshine State rivals have combined to go 5-0 thus far. Florida (3-0) has not been seriously tested while FSU did just defeat Indiana 69-67 here in Tallahassee, as part of the Big 10 vs. ACC Challenge. The Seminoles won that game despite poor shooting, but their defense stepped up to hold IU to 36% from the field. In Florida’s last game, their opponent shot just 19.6%! But that was Stetson, not Florida State, who comes in as the #20 ranked team in the country. The ‘Noles are looking for a 7th straight win over the Gators. The previous six have been by an average of 10 points. So we’ll gladly lay the short number in this one. FSU does a great job on the glass, collecting 18 offensive rebounds per game and they are 6th in the country in offensive rebound percentage. Play on FLORIDA STATE AAA |
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12-11-20 | Georgia Southern v. Davidson -14.5 | Top | 45-77 | Win | 100 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DAVIDSON We don’t envision Davidson having much trouble in this non-conference home game. The Wildcats have actually owned Georgia Southern through the years, posting an 18-7 ATS head to head mark, which includes 9-2 at home. Georgia Southern comes into Friday still sporting an unblemished won-loss record (3-0), but they haven’t played anybody of note and almost lost to USC Upstate last week. Davidson is 2-2 but those two losses were by a combined three points and on a neutral court to Texas and Providence. The Wildcats beat UNLV in their last game and have had more than a week off to prepare for this first home game in nearly three weeks. That USC Upstate team that Georgia Southern barely beat is 0-4. Yet they led the Eagles by as many as nine points in the second half. The game was decided on a three-point play in the final second. Lay the points with confidence in this one. Play on DAVIDSON AAA |
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12-11-20 | St. John's v. Seton Hall -5.5 | Top | 68-77 | Win | 100 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 9* on SETON HALL Big East play commences Friday with Seton Hall hosting St. John’s. The hosts are 3-3 on the year and coming off an easy 33-point win against Wagner. They lost by 1 at Louisville in the first game of the season. Both home games have been blowouts as they also beat Iona by 22. St. John’s is a more difficult opponent compared to Wagner and Iona, however the Red Storm seem to be getting a bit too much respect from the oddsmakers and bettors for this conference road game. The Red Storm could barely beat Rider at home three days ago (won by only three) and have two other victories so far by four points or less. So while 5-1, the Johnnies could easily have a worse record right now. Seton Hall has dominated this Big East rivalry when hosting, going 14-2 SU and 13-3 ATS. They swept the season series last year, which included a 16-point win at home. They’ve won 8 of 10 overall against St. John’s and played a harder non-conference schedule. St. John’s was only 5-13 in Big East play last season. Play on SETON HALL AAA |
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12-10-20 | Long Beach State v. San Francisco -16 | Top | 62-107 | Win | 100 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SAN FRANCISCO With the NCAA Tournament being cancelled in March, one of the teams you felt for the most was San Francisco. The Dons had a breakout season in 2019-20, going 22-12 and there was a decent shot they were going to get an at-large bid. Keep in mind this program has been to the Big Dance just ONE time since 1982 and that was in 1998. This year, the Dons already have two losses, one of them a real “head-scratcher” to UMass-Lowell in the first game of the season. But they’ve also shown what they are capable of by beating then #4 Virginia on a neutral floor. The Dons have had a few extra days off to prepare here as Sunday’s game vs. Nevada was cancelled because of COVID. We ran with Long Beach State on Sunday and they covered against Seattle, but that was a much weaker opponent. The 49ers have really struggled shooting the ball in their first two games and were blown out by another WCC team (Loyola Marymount) in their first game (lost by 24). San Francisco is a better team than Loyola Marymount. Play on SAN FRANCISCO AAA |
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12-09-20 | SE Missouri State v. Lipscomb -6.5 | Top | 74-80 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LIPSCOMB Lipscomb is looking to snap a four-game losing skid on Wednesday as it hosts SE Missouri State. In an interesting twist, these teams just played Monday. SE Missouri State won 82-77 as a 4-point home underdog despite Lipscomb shooting an impressive 55% from the field. One might think the Bisons could be in some trouble here given how hard it is to duplicate that kind of shooting. But we don’t see them taking 11 fewer shots than SE Missouri State again. This is Lipscomb’s first home game so a 1-4 start really isn’t that concerning. Two of the losses were close and the other two were at Cincinnati and Arkansas. It’s tough to beat the same opponent twice in a row and it’s not as if SE Missouri State is a good team. This will be the 4th straight game they’re underdogs and we see some value here as Lipscomb went off as the favorite, on the road, in that first meeting. Expect a double digit win by the home team Wednesday. Play on LIPSCOMB AAA |
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12-09-20 | Chattanooga v. Bellarmine +2.5 | Top | 77-68 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BELLARMINE Don’t feel bad if you’ve never heard of Bellarmine. The University, located in Louisville, KY, is new to Division I this season. They just picked up their first ever DI victory two days ago, beating Howard 84-63. This will be their first ever home game as a DI school, so it’s a pretty big deal (even without fans present). They host Chattanooga, who has opened 4-0. Besides Howard, the Knights’ only other game thus far was against Duke and they were actually competitive in the first half of that game. Despite being unbeaten, Chattanooga is in a bit of a tough situation here playing its second road game in three days. They won at Middle Tennessee Monday 80-70 as two-point pups. That victory seems to have influenced this line greatly, but we see value on what should be a fired up Bellarmine team. Play on BELLARMINE AAA |
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12-08-20 | Cal-Irvine v. USC OVER 135.5 | Top | 56-91 | Win | 100 | 23 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER USC looks to rebound from its first loss of the season here, hosting UC Irvine. The Trojans fell 61-58 to UConn last Thursday, shooting only 35.8% in the process. That wasn’t just a season-low in FG%, it was also the 1st time the Trojans were held below 50% overall shooting in a game this year. Their defense has been dominant in holding three straight opponents below 35% shooting. But it’s hard to keep doing that. UC Irvine is off a win where it scored over 100 points, though the opponent (La Sierra?) had a lot to do with that. Still we expect the Anteaters to score more than they’re expected to tonight. The problem will be that they’ve allowed over 80 PPG to Division I opponents thus far and Southern Cal figures to have a big bounce back game at the offensive end. The Over is 4-0 in UC Irvine’s last four road games and 5-1 their last six as an underdog. Play OVER AAA |
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12-08-20 | Illinois +4 v. Duke | Top | 83-68 | Win | 100 | 23 h 48 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ILLINOIS #6 Illinois takes on #10 Duke as part of the Big 10 vs. ACC Challenge on Tuesday. This is also one of two matchups of Top 10 opponents on tonight’s card (Creighton-Kansas). The Illini will be looking to bounce back from an ugly 89-62 defeat they suffered at the hands of #2 Baylor last week. Duke also knows what it’s like to taste defeat as they fell last Tuesday to Michigan State. That game was played in Cameron and while the Blue Devils have since bounced back (76-54 win over Bellarmine), that win really proves nothing. Duke is 0-3 ATS and seemingly overrated at #10 in the polls. A second home loss to a top 10 Big 10 opponent is certainly not out of the realm of possibility here as Illinois is 4-1 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points. We like what we saw from the Illini in the first few games and believe them to be a legit Top 10 team. We don’t feel the same about Duke right now as they’ve used eight different players in the starting five so far and had just two double digit scorers in the last game. They’re young. Play on ILLINOIS AAA |
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12-08-20 | Morgan State v. Iona -8 | Top | 83-72 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 19 m | Show |
This is an 8* on IONA Iona and Morgan State are both 1-1 having lost their respective openers and then coming back to win the second time out. But while the records are the same, the paths were very different. Iona has played Seton Hall and Hofstra, both on the road. Morgan State has faced Mt. St. Marys and Lincoln PA, both at home. Before you go writing off Hofstra as a strong opponent, Iona was an 8.5-point underdog against them. By the way, the Gaels are now being coached by Rick Pitino. Now he’s favored for the first time in almost three years. Given that Morgan State just allowed 94 to Lincoln PA after scoring only 55 vs. MSM, this should be an easy one for Pitino’s team. Iona leads all MAAC teams, scoring 73 points/game. They have three players that account for 67 percent of the scoring. Isaiah Ross is their best player as he’s shooting 52% from three and 99% from the free throw line. Iona is 4-0 all-time vs. Morgan State and should take advantage of a Bears team that is 0 for its last 5 ATS when playing with 5 or 6 days rest. Play on IONA AAA |
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12-07-20 | Fairfield v. Hartford -3.5 | Top | 54-67 | Win | 100 | 7 h 20 m | Show |
This is an 8* on HARTFORD After starting 0-2 (losses to UConn and Villanova), Hartford has started to gain some momentum with back to back wins. One of those was against Fairfield, who they’ll play again tonight. Fairfield is 0-3 and while they’ve been “in” the last two games (lost 66-61 to Hartford), it’s tough to imagine the Stags winning on the road tonight after the lost to Hartford at home. Neither team shot well in the first meeting, although Fairfield did make 7 of its 18 three-point attempts while Hartford was just 8 of 28. We don’t see them shooting that much better from distance now that they’re the road team nor do we believe they’ll hold a +9 edge in free throw attempts like they enjoyed last week. Really, the fact Fairfield couldn’t beat this Hartford team at home is a bad sign. The Stags have lost 45 of their last 66 games overall including 8-23 on the road. Play on HARTFORD AAA |
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12-06-20 | Seattle University v. Long Beach State -4.5 | Top | 75-80 | Win | 100 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LBSU Long Beach State’s season didn’t get off to a good start as they lost by 24 at Loyola Marymount on Friday. But the 49ers have what looks to be their easiest game of the non-conference slate here on Sunday as they host a Seattle team that’s coming off two straight double digit losses, the more recent coming by 26 against UCLA. Coach Dan Monson has been known for challenging his team with tough non-conference schedules ever since he arrived here in Long Beach back in 2007. The 49ers didn’t “show up” for the season opener, but they will for what is their lone home game between now and the 1st of the year. This is a shockingly low spread in our eyes, but we’ll take it as LBSU is 5-0 (straight up) the past three seasons as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. They’ve won over two-thirds of the time in that role. Seattle is shooting below 30% from three-point range so far. LBSU has revenge for an ugly 22-point loss up the coast from last season. Play on LONG BEACH STATE AAA |
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12-04-20 | North Dakota v. Minnesota -21.5 | Top | 67-76 | Loss | -107 | 14 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MINNESOTA Big time mismatch here as Minnesota is 3-0 while North Dakota State is 0-2. You might be thinking that the large point spread could be of “assistance” to the Fighting Hawks on Friday, but you’d be wrong as they are 0-6 ATS their past six chances as a road underdog of at least 12.5 points. Not only did ND suffer a double digit loss in the season opener at Miami (OH), they lost to a team named Dixie State just two days ago. That’s a brand new team to Division I and the fact ND was just a three-point favorite to begin with speaks volumes about the state of this program. Meanwhile, Minnesota is averaging 84.7 points in three games. They just beat Loyola Marymount twice. While they didn’t cover the second time, they held LMU below 25% shooting from three-point range. That coupled with an explosive offense should result in an easy win Friday. The Gophers got called for a lot of fouls in their last game, which is why that game stayed so close. Don’t see them getting whistled as much tonight at home and against a really bad team, that means a blowout is coming. Play on MINNESOTA AAA |
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12-03-20 | Montana v. Southern Utah +1 | Top | 63-64 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SOUTHERN UTAH Perhaps you’re watching “Big Sky” (on ABC) but we expect no real surprises here in the conference that bears that show’s namesake. Southern Utah should be able to defeat Montana at home as the Golden Grizzlies appear to be a bit shorthanded for their conference opener and did not look good against USC on Saturday, which is the only game that they have played. Montana was held to 62 points on 33.9% shooting and then got torched on the defensive end, allowing USC to shoot 50%. They really struggled to defend the three-point line in that game. Look for that to be a problem here against a Southern Utah outfit that has shot the lights out in two games, making almost 42% of their 3PA. The Thunderbirds have scored 83 and 95 points in their two games. These Big Sky rivals played two close games last season with the road team winning both times. But Southern Utah has won 21 of its past 30 at home and seems like a good value tonight. Play on SOUTHERN UTAH AAA |
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12-03-20 | VMI v. Virginia Tech -21.5 | Top | 57-64 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* on VA TECH Virginia Tech should not encounter much resistance tonight when it goes up against VMI, a team that traditionally gives up a lot of points. In their lone game thus far against meaningful competition, the Keydets gave up 86 points to Penn State. They won their other two contests, but those were against St. Andrews and Longwood. Virginia Tech is a legit Top 25 team right now (ranked #16) that has already beaten Villanova 81-73 as a nine-point underdog. The Hokies have also beaten VMI each of the past two seasons, both times by double digits. The Hokies followed their big upset of Villanova with a 75-68 win over South Florida on Sunday and haven’t played since, so they should be well rested. VMI played two nights ago, which won’t do them any favors tonight. That they lost by 30 to Penn State is particularly instructive when handicapping this matchup. This is a team predicted to finish 9th in the 10-team Southern Conference. The Hokies are shooting almost 50% through three games and should score at will in this one. Play on VIRGINIA TECH AAA |
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12-02-20 | Texas-Arlington v. Arkansas UNDER 148.5 | Top | 60-72 | Win | 100 | 13 h 25 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER Arkansas will look to make it 3 for 3 to open the year when they host UT Arlington Wednesday night. The Razorbacks opened the season by winning by 80 (!) against Miss Valley State and then by 15 against North Texas. UT Arlington is unbeaten against the spread (3-0), but just 1-2 straight up as they suffered close losses to Oklahoma State and Louisiana Tech before beating Northwestern State on Saturday. The fact that Arkansas has scored 142 points in a game is something that caused the oddsmakers to pay attention. So expect high totals the next few games. But the offense quickly came back down to Earth against North Texas, scoring “only” 69 points. They also did a really solid job defensively in that game. Giving up an average of less than 60 points on 33% shooting is something we like to see. UT Arlington has gone Under eight straight times as a road underdog of 12.5 or more points. They are shooting only 29% from three so far. Arkansas is 11-3 Under as a home favorite of more than 12 points. Number is too high here. Play on UNDER AAA |
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12-02-20 | North Florida v. Florida State -25.5 | Top | 58-86 | Win | 100 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
This is an 8* on FLORIDA STATE Another game that won’t be close on Wednesday’s NCAAB slate is when Florida State hosts North Florida. The 22nd ranked Seminoles will be opening their season tonight while North Florida is already 0-3. All three losses for the Ospreys have been blowouts with them going down to Eastern Kentucky by 13, NC State by 35 and Miami by 18. That middle result is what sticks out to us. Florida State is better than all three teams North Florida has faced so far and thus this figures to turn into another long night. While the ‘Noles did lose a couple of lottery picks to the NBA, they did bring in Scottie Barnes, the highest rated recruit ever to come to Tallahassee. FSU typically defends very well and has scored 98 and 95 points the last two years on North Florida. This is precisely the kind of opponent you want to open your season against. Play on FLORIDA STATE AAA |
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12-02-20 | Morehead State v. Ohio State -24 | Top | 44-77 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OHIO STATE We expect Ohio State to have little difficulty here blowing out Morehead State. The 23rd ranked Buckeyes are 2-0 and won both games by double digits. Admittedly, it was just a 10-point win over UMass-Lowell where they trailed in the second half. But they’d previously beaten Illinois State by 27 in the season opener. The closer than expected call against Mass-Lowell seems to have influenced this line and we say it’s time to take advantage. While Morehead State is off an upset win against Arkansas State, 69-61 as a three point home underdog, they’d previously lost to Kentucky by 36 and Richmond by 18. That’s the caliber of competition they are up against here. In those two defeats, the Eagles allowed the opponents to shoot almost 56% overall while averaging 81.5 points. Ohio State scored 94 in the season opener, so it should be another big offensive night for them in Columbus. Play on OHIO STATE AAA |
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12-01-20 | Michigan State v. Duke OVER 152 | Top | 75-69 | Loss | -109 | 19 h 23 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the OVER We get a Top 10 battle Tuesday night with Duke hosting Michigan State. The Blue Devils have definitely had the Spartans number through the years, winning eight of the nine head to head meetings. Both teams struggled to hold onto big leads in their last game and turnovers have been an ongoing issue as well. We expect this to turn into a bit of a shootout. Duke let Coppin State make 10 three-pointers on Saturday. Michigan State obviously possesses a much better shot-making ability than Coppin State. They’ve scored 80 in both games with the Over being 2-0. Duke is no slouch offensively either as Coach K’s charges made 53.1% of its shots in the first game. When these teams played last year, it was all Blue Devils in an 87-75 win that easily surpassed the 142.5 point O/U line. Lots of different names this go around, especially on the Duke side, but the firepower is still there. Play on OVER AAA |
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12-01-20 | Valparaiso v. Illinois-Chicago +2 | Top | 50-66 | Win | 100 | 19 h 53 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UIC Former Horizon League enemies meeting here. Even though Valparaiso is now in the Missouri Valley Conference, there should still be a sense of “rivalry” when they meet Illinois-Chicago on Tuesday, particularly on the UIC side of things. UIC has lost 10 straight times to Valpo. Though it’s a whole new group of players, they should come out highly motivated to end that win streak. The Flames are 2-0 thus far, both close wins. They beat Northern Illinois by four and Central Michigan by two, so it’s too bad they aren’t in the MAC! Valpo lost its only game, 77-71 at Vanderbilt, as they blew a five-point lead with just under six minutes to go. UIC did lead Central Michigan by double digits at halftime, so they were in control throughout, even if the final score doesn’t really indicate that. Both teams have done a good job defensively so far, but winning on the road might be too great of an ask for a young Valpo team right now. They may also be looking forward to a date with Purdue later this week. UIC has won 24 of its last 35 home games while Valpo has lost 19 of its last 28 away from home. Play on UIC AAA |
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12-01-20 | Nebraska-Omaha v. Creighton -19 | Top | 67-94 | Win | 100 | 17 h 54 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CREIGHTON City pride is at stake here with Omaha taking on Creighton. Omaha comes in as the decided underdog - and for good reason. The Mavericks are 1-2 so far this year and have failed to cover seven straight times against teams with winning records. Creighton is off a win, 69-58 over North Dakota State, which is their only game played to date. Nebraska-Omaha’s only win to this point was by a single point, 60-59 over Middle Tennessee. That came on the heels of a six-point loss to Austin Peay and right before a 12-point loss to Abilene Christian. Despite the questionable status of Creighton’s Denzel Mahoney (COVID-19), we think the Bluejays win this one going away as they are the #9 ranked team in the country right now. Preseason Big East Player of the Year Marcus Zegarowski shot just 2 of 11 against North Dakota State. He should have a much better shooting night here. Omaha has made just 18.2% of its three-point attempts thus far, which is horrendous. Play on CREIGHTON AAA |
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11-30-20 | Eastern Kentucky v. Xavier -15.5 | Top | 96-99 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* on XAVIER Xavier opened its season with a convincing 101-49 win against Oakland. Since then, the Musketeers have had two close calls against Bradley and Toledo. They were able to win both - but only by a combined four points - and thus it was 0-2 ATS. Eastern Kentucky is off to a 2-0 start and has covered both of its games, but there’s a big difference from those first two opponents (N Florida, Charleston So) to the team they face today. The Colonels are just 1-6 ATS the last seven times they’ve been a road underdog of 12.5 or more points. Concerning for EKU is the fact they’ve shot 35% in both games so far. Xavier is allowing a 31.2 field goal percentage thus far, so it figures to be a very low-scoring game for the underdogs here. Xavier opponents are shooting less than 30% on 2-pt attempts, which ranks 4th in the country, and EKU is shooting just 16% from three-point range. Should be an easy one for the Musketeers. Play on XAVIER AAA |
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11-30-20 | Chattanooga -6 v. Tennessee Tech | Top | 62-54 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CHATTANOOGA We’ve got an in-state battle from the Volunteer State with Chattanooga opening its season proper against 0-1 Tennessee Tech. Tennessee Tech had little chance of winning their first game. They were big underdogs against Indiana and did even worse than expected, losing by 30. Chattanooga’s first game was a glorified exhibition as they defeated Lander College 99-63 a few days ago. The Mocs are 21-8 ATS on the road the previous two seasons so we believe the SoCon representation should perform well tonight. The last time these schools played, it was an 11-point home victory for Chattanooga. This was a 20-win team last season. They have eight guys back plus added some good-looking transfers. Tennessee Tech won only 9 games in 2019-20 and four of those came late in the year. Of the last 51 times that the Golden Eagles have been an underdog, they’ve won just nine times. So we will lay a short number. Play on CHATTANOOGA AAA |
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11-28-20 | Montana v. USC -11.5 | Top | 62-76 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* on USC USC already has a game under its belt and it didn’t really go as well as expected. They were still victorious mind you, but needed overtime to defeat Cal Baptist by a score of 95-87. They didn’t even come close to covering the number, which was -18.5. But what that close call does for us here is provide some value. We certainly expected the Trojans to be favored by more against Montana, who has yet to play in 2020. What hurt USC Wednesday night was the fact Cal Baptist went 20 of 41 from three-point range. The Trojans were just 5 of 19 from distance. That kind of discrepancy shouldn’t exist again tonight. You’d expect USC to be the better three-point shooting team. Or maybe they don’t have to be considering they made 32 of 47 two-point attempts in that first game! Montana is just 3-12 ATS as a road underdog of 9.5 to 12 points. The Grizzlies lost almost all of their offensive production from last season and are really going to struggle early on. Play on USC AAA |
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11-26-20 | Auburn -7.5 v. St. Joe's | Top | 96-91 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* on AUBURN This game is in Fort Myers, very much on the “undercard” of Gonzaga-Kansas. Auburn went 25-6 a year ago. St. Joe’s was 6-26. Auburn is very much a program in “turmoil” right now. Not only did they lose their top six players from last season, but they are also a part of an ongoing FBI investigation. Still, we see no reason why we shouldn’t lay the points in this matchup. They are still a long and athletic team. St. Joe’s returns a lot more from last year, but that was a bad team (see record above). The Hawks are being picked to finish near the bottom of the Atlantic 10 again and aren’t going to be that improved in 2020-21. Because of the self-imposed postseason ban that was imposed earlier this week, we’re getting value on Auburn as bettors are seemingly willing to write this team off. That’s a mistake in our eyes. They are 7-1 ATS L8 neutral site games while St. Joseph’s is 1-3-1 ATS its last five. This number has come down much too far and Auburn is now a 10* play for us. Play on AUBURN AAA |
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11-26-20 | Gonzaga v. Kansas OVER 149.5 | Top | 102-90 | Win | 100 | 5 h 16 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER Gonzaga and Kansas would have been two of the favorites to win the NCAA Tournament that was never played last March. The Zags were 31-2 and had already won the WCC Tournament when the season was paused. Kansas was 28-3 (Big 12 Tournament never played, on a 16-game win streak, and many thought they were the best team in the country. These two “blue-bloods” open the 2020-21 season against one another in Fort Myers. Gonzaga has won 30 or more games six of the last nine seasons including each of the last four. Some feel this is Mark Few’s best team ever. They are going to average a lot of points. Florida transfer Andrew Nembhard’s transfer was just granted (he can play immediately), so the roster is even more talented. Gonzaga averaged 87.4 points/game last season. Compared to last season, Kansas isn’t going to be as strong defensively as they were a year ago, due to a couple departures. The Jayhawks have gone Over five straight times as a neutral site underdog. Play on OVER AAA |
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11-25-20 | Clemson -4 v. Mississippi State | Top | 53-42 | Win | 100 | 21 h 53 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CLEMSON When you think Clemson and Mississippi State, College FOOTBALL is probably what comes to mind. But these Power 5 schools will open the NCAAB season against each other on Wednesday. This is part of the Space Coast Challenge in Melbourne, FL. It replaces the cancelled Cancun Classic. Clemson is the more experienced side coming into the year, but it’s the arrival of highly touted freshman PJ Hall that has Tigers fans most excited. Hall was the #1 high school player in the state of South Carolina, so he was a huge “get” for the program. Though Miss State has put together three consecutive 20+ win seasons, they bring back just four players and one of them didn’t see significant minutes last season. Clemson actually allowed fewer points per game a year ago and has revenge for a loss two years ago to the Bulldogs on a neutral floor. Take Clemson to win. Play on CLEMSON AAA |
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11-25-20 | St. Mary's +8 v. Memphis | Top | 56-73 | Loss | -112 | 15 h 54 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ST MARYS St. Mary’s and Memphis are two “mid-major” programs accustomed to success, but there’s a lot of new faces on both rosters to start the 2020-21 campaign. Memphis saw two of its standouts from last year get taken in the Top 20 picks of the NBA Draft last week. They return just four upperclassmen, none of them seniors. St. Mary’s also loses the bulk of its production (72% of scoring) from last year’s squad. But we’re more confident in the Gaels “figuring things out” in this first game in South Dakota, part of the Bad Boy Mowers Crossover Classic. It seems as if every year St. Mary’s wins more than 20 games and last year was no exception as they finished 26-8 and would have made the NCAA Tournament. Memphis has a player out because of COVID contact tracing and another transfer has yet to be ruled eligible. The Tigers are too young to trust laying this many points in the early going. Last year’s team had a losing record away from home and averaged just 64.5 points in those games. Play on ST. MARYS AAA |
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11-25-20 | North Dakota v. Miami-OH -6 | Top | 67-81 | Win | 100 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MIAMI OH Miami Ohio opens its season with a visit from North Dakota and we see this being an easy cover for the RedHawks, who played well in Oxford a season ago. Especially on the defensive end where they limited opponents to 40.7% shooting. North Dakota could not claim the same sort of defensive prowess. The Fighting Hawks gave up 75.5 points/game last year and an even higher number on the road. The season ended in ugly fashion with an 89-53 defeat at the hands of North Dakota State in the Summit League Tournament. Never did the Fighting Hawks win more than two straight games during the 2019-20 campaign. They're not about to start this year with a win either. Both teams lost their star guard, but Miami returns four starters. Play on MIAMI OHIO AAA |
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03-11-20 | Washington v. Arizona OVER 139 | Top | 70-77 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Washington and Arizona were the Pac 12’s biggest underachievers for the 2019-20 season. Washington finished in last place with a 5-13 conference record and while Arizona ended up a more modest 5th in the standings, that was also well below expectations. This first round tournament matchup is a rematch from the last regular season game for each. Washington won 69-63 in Tucson, which was certainly an upset as the Huskies were 10-point underdogs. We expect this rematch to feature a lot more scoring - from both sides. Prior to upsetting Arizona, Washington’s last four games had all gone Over the total. They’d just scored 90 points in an upset of Arizona State two days prior to winning in Tucson. Arizona had scored 83 in its previous game. They also beat Washington 75-72 in Seattle back in January. What’s interesting about the two games vs. the Huskies is that Arizona made only 26 two-point baskets on 72 attempts. That’s 36%! You have to figure they’ll shoot better today. Play OVER Washington-Arizona AAA |
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03-11-20 | St. Joe's v. George Mason -4.5 | Top | 70-77 | Win | 100 | 6 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* on GMU The Atlantic 10 Tournament has a clear favorite in Dayton and everybody else probably needs to win this thing in order to make the Big Dance. The longest “road to hoe” belongs to the bottom four, a group which both St. Joseph’s and George Mason can claim to be a part of. These two squads have combined for a total of five wins going back to late January. George Mason has three to St. Joe’s two, the difference being a 62-55 head to head win back on February 22nd. The Patriots just missed out on covering that day as they were 8.5-point favorites. But we like them with a small number attached to them today. Regardless if it’s a true road game or on a neutral court, St. Joe’s has just two wins away from home all season. They give up almost 80 points/game as well. George Mason has won and covered all three of its games in a neutral setting this year. They held St. Joe’s to 33.9% shooting in the regular season game. Play on GEORGE MASON AAA |
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03-10-20 | North Carolina -3.5 v. Virginia Tech | Top | 78-56 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNC North Carolina has endured one of the worst single season free falls that we have ever seen. After starting the 2019-20 season 5-0 and ranked in the Top 10, they ended up losing 18 of their final 26 regular season games and in a three-way tie for last in the ACC. But now the ACC Tournament begins and that gives the Tar Heels a “clean slate.” Before losing the final regular season game at Duke, UNC had won and covered its last three games. So there were some signs of a potential breakthrough. The first round tournament opponent is Virginia Tech. They lost to the Hokies 79-77 in January, but did cover the 7.5-point spot. This time UNC is favored as the game isn’t in Blacksburg. Since it defeated UNC, Va Tech has won just twice in 12 games. They are 3-8 straight up and against the spread as underdogs. This spot screams “Tar Heels!” Play on NORTH CAROLINA AAA |
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03-09-20 | St. Mary's v. BYU OVER 145 | Top | 51-50 | Loss | -109 | 16 h 31 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER St. Mary’s and BYU split their two regular season meetings. Each won a close game at home. The rubber match takes place Monday night in Vegas. For two teams that have spent the season battling it out for “who’s #2?” in the West Coast Conference (Gonzaga obviously #1), a win here all but clinches a NCAA Tournament berth. Both teams ended the regular season at 24-7 overall. But BYU got the #2 spot by finishing 13-3 in conference play while St. Mary’s was 11-5. So St. Mary’s had to play an extra game to get to this tournament semifinal matchup. They beat Pepperdine 89-82 on Saturday. The Gaels last four games have all gone Over the total with them averaging more than 80 points/game. Both games vs. BYU also went Over with the final scores being 81-79 and 87-84. Look for another high scoring game tonight. All four times St. Mary’s has been an underdog this year, the Over has cashed. The Over is also 7-1 when they play on one or zero days rest. Play OVER St. Mary’s/BYU AAA |
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03-09-20 | Western Michigan v. Toledo -8.5 | Top | 73-76 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TOLEDO The MAC Tournament gets underway tonight. All four first round games are played on campuses before things shift to Cleveland for the quarterfinals on Thursday. Toledo is the home team for this matchup. While the Rockets are only 3-11 ATS at home this season, one of those covers came against Western Michigan, the team they’ll be facing here. They also won at Western Michigan a couple of weeks ago. That made it six straight wins over the Broncos and UT is 5-1 ATS in those same games. The Rockets closed the regular season on a strong 4-1 SU/ATS run, the only loss coming on the road. Western Michigan did not close strong as they’ve lost six of eight with the only two wins both coming in Kalamazoo. WMU is just 3-11 SU on the road. The Broncos scored only 59 points in both regular season matchups vs. Toledo and anything resembling that same defensive effort will bring home an easy ATS win here for the home team. We believe they get the job done as WMU drops to 1-12 ATS its last 13 Monday games! Play on TOLEDO AAA |
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03-09-20 | Illinois-Chicago v. Wright State -6 | Top | 73-56 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
This is an 8* on WRIGHT ST The Horizon League Tournament moves to Indianapolis tonight for a pair of semifinal matchups. The one we’re targeting sees the top seed Wright State facing the #4 seed Illinois-Chicago. While Wright State did beat UIC pretty big (17 points) at home in the regular season, they did lose 76-72 as 6.5-point road favorites in the first meeting of the year. So don’t look for the Raiders to take this game lightly. Because they were regular season champs, Wright State got a double bye into the semifinals whereas UIC has had to win twice to get here. Both of those wins for UIC came at home. The Flames are going to have to figure out a way to defend a Wright State team that comes in averaging more than 81 points/game. If that’s not enough, Wright State has had nine days off. The Raiders have gone 5-1 ATS in Horizon League Tourney games the past two seasons and that includes a pair of semifinal victories. Look for them to easily move on to their third straight Final. Play on WRIGHT STATE AAA |
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03-08-20 | Delaware +1.5 v. College of Charleston | Top | 79-67 | Win | 100 | 6 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DELAWARE Quarterfinal action in the CAA here with Delaware taking on Charleston. The winner of this game is likely to play top seed Hofstra in the semifinals tomorrow. Delaware finished with a better overall record than Charleston this year (21-10 vs. 17-13). However Charleston is the higher seed as both were 11-7 in conference play and they had the tiebreaker. The tiebreaker was of course head to head play. Charleston beat Delaware twice this season and is a perfect 6-0 the last six meetings. They are 6-0 ATS in those games as well. That sets this up to be a major revenge situation for the Blue Hens. Both games vs. Charleston this year saw Delaware shoot poorly. They made just over 40% of their FGA in each game. That’s irregular. For the season, the Blue Hens are shooting over 48%. We’ll say they shoot a lot better today. The Blue Hens are also 5-1 ATS in their past six neutral court games. Play on DELAWARE AAA |
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03-08-20 | Nebraska v. Minnesota UNDER 144.5 | Top | 75-107 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Minnesota has basically played its way OUT of NCAA Tournament contention. They’ve lost six of their last seven games including three straight close ones. Losses to Maryland, Wisconsin and Indiana have all been by five or less points. All three games also went Over. It’s good deal then for the Gophers that they are getting Nebraska in the regular season finale. The worst team in the Big 10, the Cornhuskers are 2-17 in conference games and have lost 15 in a row. The Under 7-1 in Minnesota games this season when the total is 140 to 149.5 and they are keeping teams below 65 points per game at home. Therefore, look for a total reversal of fortune for the Gophers today. Besides Nebraska, there’s only one other “bad” team in the Big 10 this year and that’s Northwestern who Minnesota recently kept to 57 points. All three home games where Minnesota was favored by 12.5 or more this year have stayed Under. Play UNDER Nebraska-Minnesota AAA |
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03-07-20 | Stanford v. Oregon UNDER 133.5 | Top | 67-80 | Loss | -111 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER A win tonight means Oregon finishes with no worse than a share of the Pac 12 title. At home they are favored to beat Stanford, but look for a low scoring game as the Cardinal are surprisingly one of the better defensive teams in all college basketball. They are 6th in efficiency. They give up 61.9 points per game but Oregon isn’t far behind allowing 64.2 at home. The Ducks lost 70-60 in Palo Alto back in January, a game where they were held to a field goal percentage of only 32.8. Oregon had a huge scoring outburst Thursday vs. Cal (scored 90) but also held the Bears to just 56. Play UNDER Stanford-Oregon AAA |
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03-07-20 | Seton Hall v. Creighton -3.5 | Top | 60-77 | Win | 100 | 6 h 49 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CREIGHTON This is the game that will determine the Big East’s regular season champion. It’s Seton Hall’s title to lose as the 8th ranked Pirates come into Saturday with a one-game advantage over #11 Creighton. But the Bluejays have the tiebreaker having already gone on the road and beat the Pirates 87-82 last month. Creighton has lost only once in its last seven games and that was when we played against them last Sunday at St. John’s. Consider that result to be an anomaly as the Bluejays quickly bounced back with a 91-point effort here at home vs. Georgetown on Wednesday. They’ve now won 10 of 12 overall and are 17-1 straight up at home where they are averaging a very healthy 83.5 points per game. Seton Hall can only blame itself for being in this position as they left the door open by losing to Villanova at home Wednesday night. The Pirates couldn’t stop Creighton from scoring a ton the first meeting. There’s no reason to believe they’ll be able to stop them here. Play on CREIGHTON AAA |
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03-07-20 | Auburn v. Tennessee -2.5 | Top | 85-63 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TENNESSEE Tennessee rallied back from a 17-point deficit to stun #6 Kentucky on the road Tuesday. For them, it had to feel like “just desserts” given that they blew a 17-point lead and lost earlier this year. That was to Auburn, who they’ll face here in the final regular season game of the year. This is a great shot for the Volunteers to post their second straight win over a ranked opponent, although this one would not be considered an upset. For the third time this season, Auburn has lost two straight. They’ve yet to lose three in a row but have lost four of their last six including an 0-3 road record. Wednesday saw them lose at home to Texas A&M as a 12-point favorite. Tennessee has had an extra day to prepare here and with this being Senior Day, you’ve got to think they’ll come out as the more motivated side in this contest. Auburn is just 2-7 ATS on the road this year and will have to figure out a way to score against a team that’s giving up less than 60 points per game at home. We don’t think they figure it out. Play on TENNESSEE AAA |
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03-06-20 | Ohio v. Miami-OH -1.5 | Top | 67-65 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MIAMI Not much on the line here in the final regular season game for Ohio and Miami, so we’ll defer to the home side on “Senior Night.” The teams have played well of late. Ohio is 9-2 ATS its last 11 games and 5-0 ATS the last five. But they still have a losing record in MAC play at 7-10 straight up. Miami is in last place at 5-12 SU, but they’ve won their last two home games. Tonight is a chance for the RedHawks to avenge their worst loss of the season, which took place in Athens on February 8th. Ohio won that day 77-46. But Miami is 6-1 ATS since that loss. While they are 1-11 SU on the road this year, they are 10-5 SU at home. Play on MIAMI AAA |
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03-06-20 | Kent State v. Akron -6.5 | Top | 76-79 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
This is an 8* on Akron Rivals Kent State and Akron close out their respective regular seasons against one another here and there’s plenty at stake. Akron has surged to the top of the MAC East by winning seven of its last eight games and can clinch the top seed in the conference tournament with a win here. Seeing as they also have revenge for a one-point loss they suffered at Kent State on January 31st, the Zips’ motivation ought to be at a season-high tonight. We look for them to get the job done as they’ve gone an impressive 14-2 at home this year while allowing only 62.7 points per contest. Since beating Akron in the first go around, Kent State has a losing record and hasn’t posted back to back wins. They just beat Bowling Green at home on Tuesday. But on the road the Golden Flashes tend to struggle as their scoring average dips from 81.9 at home down to 68.1. They are also just 2-6 ATS off a league win this year. Play on AKRON AAA |
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03-05-20 | Portland v. Santa Clara UNDER 142 | Top | 62-76 | Win | 100 | 14 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER This is a first round game in the WCC Tournament. Both Portland and Santa Clara face a tall mountain to climb as they’ll have to win five times in six days to capture the championship, including needing to beat Gonzaga. Now that we’ve ditched that fantasy, let’s look at the actual matchup. Portland finished last in the WCC with a 1-15 record. They haven’t won a game since January 4th. They are terrible. Santa Clara is the 7-seed in the Tournament and just beat Portland 73-68 on Saturday. That game just finished Under. Look for this one to do the same as Saturday’s game saw the two teams combine to make 18 three-pointers. That won’t happen at a neutral site. Play UNDER Portland-Santa Clara AAA |
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03-05-20 | Boise State v. UNLV -2 | Top | 67-61 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNLV UNLV hosts Boise State in the second of four Mountain West Tournament quarterfinals today. We like the tourney hosts for a variety of reasons here, namely that they come in hot. Five straight wins and covers have the Rebels primed to make a little noise this weekend and remember they are the only team to beat top seed San Diego State this entire season! The Runnin’ Rebels just beat Boise State here at the Thomas & Mack Center on Feb 26th, 76-66 as two-point favorites. They led by 12 at halftime and coasted from there. Boise State is just 4-8 on the road this season. The loss at UNLV was their regular season finale while the Rebels have since picked up a dominant 92-69 win at San Jose State. Their recent form can’t be ignored here and even if Long (knee) can’t go, they remain a safe bet. After all, they have covered 11 of the 16 times they have been a favorite in this season. Play on UNLV AAA |
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03-04-20 | Georgetown v. Creighton UNDER 152.5 | Top | 76-91 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Creighton was on a real roll before running into St. John’s on Sunday. We took the Johnnies in that one as they put up 91 points in a big-time upset. Creighton won’t be giving up nearly that many points tonight though. They are back in Omaha where they - on average - give up far less points per game. While their scoring also goes up, they happen to be facing a Georgetown team that has failed to crack 70 in three of its past four games. The Hoyas have lost all four as they most certainly won’t be joining the majority of the Big East in the NCAA Tournament, save for them winning the conference tourney. With so many players injured, we don’t look for Georgetown to do much offensively in this game. Creighton won’t have to either, which lends itself to a play on the Under. The Under is already 6-2 in Georgetown’s last eight road games. Play UNDER on Georgetown-Creighton AAA |
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03-02-20 | NC State v. Duke -12.5 | Top | 69-88 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DUKE Duke lost to Virginia Saturday, its second loss in a row and third in the last four games. But the one constant in those three defeats is that they all took place on the road. We were on the right side of that Virginia game Saturday with the Blue Devils getting held to a season-low 50 points. They faltered down the stretch yet again, just like they did against Wake Forest a few days prior. But back at Cameron Indoor, we look for the Blue Devils to make a statement tonight on ESPN. They are winning by more than 21 points/game at home this season. This is also a very big revenge spot. Duke lost to NC State by 22 two weeks ago in Raleigh. That was their worst loss of the season and something the players haven’t forgotten. This will be the first time this year that the Blue Devils take the floor with in-season revenge. They have won 10 of the last 11 times they’ve been seeking revenge for a road loss, covering the spread seven times. NC State is 0-3 ATS since the upset of Duke and lost at North Carolina. Play on DUKE AAA |
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03-01-20 | Colorado v. Stanford OVER 131.5 | Top | 64-72 | Win | 100 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER When these teams met in Boulder three weeks ago, the game flew Over with Colorado winning 81-74. Not only did the Buffaloes go 30 of 40 from the free throw line, they were 11 of 21 on three-pointers. In fact, they and Stanford combined to go 23 of 42 from three-point range. That was easily one of Stanford’s worst defensive games this season. While them getting to host the rematch will certainly lead to better play on that end, we look for this matchup to go Over again. It may not be as high-scoring as last time, but it doesn’t need to be. In fact, it doesn’t need to be close. The last one went Over by 25 points. Stanford has scored at least 70 points in its last three games with all of those being wins. Colorado just gave up 76 to a bad Cal team and that was at home. Stanford can really shoot the ball well. The Over is 4-0 the last four times they’ve been a home favorite. Play OVER Colorado-Stanford AAA |
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03-01-20 | Creighton v. St. John's +5.5 | Top | 71-91 | Win | 100 | 4 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ST. JOHN'S Creighton and St. John’s are in very different places as we approach the final week of the regular season. Creighton has surged to the top of the Big East by winning and covering its last five games. Plus they are 9-1 SU L10. St. John’s lost leading scorer Mustapha Heron and is 2-9 straight up its last 11 games (0-3 L3) as well as 1-6 against the spread its last seven. But the good news for St. John’s Sunday is they are playing at home and they are 3-0 both straight up and against the spread this year when off three consecutive losses. Even without Heron, we like their chances today due to the fact Creighton simply isn’t the same team on the road that they are at home. Scoring drops from 83.1 points/game down to 72.5 and that should be enough for St. John’s to at least earn itself the cover here. They are 5-1 ATS their last six times as a home underdog of 3.5 to 6 points including a perfect 3-0 this season. Play on ST. JOHN’S AAA |
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02-29-20 | Arizona v. UCLA OVER 135.5 | Top | 64-69 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER That UCLA is tied for the Pac 12 lead right now is rather stunning. The Bruins have won six in a row to get to 11-5 in conference play and 18-11 overall. This is a team that was basically “left for dead” coming into February. Unless they end up winning the Pac 12 Tournament, we’re not even sure they wind up making the NCAA Tournament. Arizona is considered a lot safer for the Big Dance right now, although they’ve lost two straight to fall 1.5 games behind UCLA and Oregon in the conference. This is a rematch of a game played on Feb 8, won by UCLA 65-52. That win is what began UCLA’s current roll. They held Arizona to just 25.4% shooting (in Tucson) as the Wildcats made just 9 of 36 two-point attempts. It was a similarly awful shooting night for Arizona in their last game as they lost 57-48 to USC. But they are 2-0 SU/ATS this year when they are off a game in which they got held to 60 points or less. Look for Arizona to regain its “shooting touch” tonight, but also for UCLA to keep its hot shooting going. Play OVER Arizona-UCLA AAA |
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02-29-20 | Duke v. Virginia +3.5 | Top | 50-52 | Win | 100 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
This is a play on VIRGINIA Duke has tasted defeat twice in its past three games and both losses came on the road. The most recent was a real stunner as they gave up 113 points in a double overtime loss to Wake Forest. The Blue Devils have now failed to cover in four straight road games. Tonight they are at defending National Champ Virginia. While the champs may not be the same team they were last year, they are rounding into form at the right time. It’s five straight wins by the Cavaliers and while four of those have been by three points or less, the offense has increased to 61.4 points/game. That may not sound like much (and it isn’t!) but when you are allowing only 49.5 points/game at home, then it’s plenty. Note Duke is only 4-12 ATS this season after scoring 80 or more points the previous game. Virginia has been a home underdog only one other time all year and they won that game (vs. Florida State) by five. They are 6-2 ATS the last three seasons when getting points. Led by their outstanding defense, Virginia gets the cash here. Play on VIRGINIA AAA |
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02-27-20 | South Dakota State v. North Dakota State -4 | Top | 69-71 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* on North Dakota St This is perhaps the biggest regular season game the Summit League will see all year as second place North Dakota State hosts first place South Dakota State. The road team has won eight straight to climb into the pole position and that win streak started with a win over the Bison back on January 22nd. But it was only a five point win in which the Jackrabbits shot an amazing 55.8% from the field and made 24 of 38 shots inside the arc. That will not happen again on the road as ND State is the team more likely to “go off” offensively this time as they are averaging 81.4 points/game at home. The Bison had their own win streak stopped at seven games last Saturday with a three point loss at North Dakota. Maybe they were looking ahead to this showdown? Regardless, they are now 1.5 games back of South Dakota State, which makes tonight a “must-win.” The Bison are 11-1 on their home floor this year. All eight of South Dakota State’s losses this year have been on the road. Play on NORTH DAKOTA STATE AAA |
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02-26-20 | Rutgers v. Penn State -6 | Top | 64-65 | Loss | -108 | 24 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PENN ST Yet another play from the Big 10 (had Michigan St last night), so we’ll mention again just how deep this conference is as it looks like 10 teams will be sent to the NCAA Tournament. But despite the depth, there are advantages to be had, especially when certain teams play on the road. We didn’t give Iowa much of a chance last night in East Lansing and the same holds true tonight for Rutgers in State College, PA. To say the Scarlet Knights have struggled on the road in Big 10 play would be putting it mildly. They have lost five straight Big 10 road games and six of seven overall with the one win coming against Nebraska. Rutgers is now 1-9 in road or neutral site games for the 2019-20 season. They just lost by eight at Wisconsin on Sunday. While the Big 10 may be deep, some teams are simply better than others and that’s the case with Penn State here as the Nittany Lions are a legit top 20 team that plays really good defense. Back to back losses (to Indiana & Illinois) have taken some wind out of their sails, but you’re still looking at a team that’s 13-2 SU at home with a point differential of +14.8 per game. They began February on a 5-0 SU/ATS tear and should end the month with a big win here. Play on PENN STATE AAA |
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02-25-20 | Iowa v. Michigan State -8 | Top | 70-78 | Push | 0 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MICHIGAN ST Yet another quality Big 10 matchup Tuesday and while it’s a battle of Top 25 teams, we actually think things will end up rather lopsided here in East Lansing. Despite a less than stellar February, Sparty remains an elite team, one that is far better than its #24 ranking. Make no mistake about it, there might not be more than 5-7 teams that would be favored over Michigan State come Tournament time. Tom Izzo’s bunch got the confidence-boosting win it needed last Thursday when they went to Nebraska and blew out the Cornhuskers 86-65. Now they host Iowa, who we have serious doubts about on the defensive end of the floor. Of all the teams currently ranked in the Top 25, the Hawkeyes have the worst efficiency rating defensively. We grabbed them laying a small number vs. Ohio State last Thursday. However, that was at home. They’ve gone just 1-16 straight up and 4-13 against the spread their past 17 visits to East Lansing and this number tells you to disregard the rankings. Iowa had lost three straight road games before a miracle comeback at Minnesota nine days ago. Play on MICHIGAN STATE AAA |
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02-24-20 | Oklahoma State v. Kansas OVER 134.5 | Top | 58-83 | Win | 100 | 24 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER Kansas is coming off its biggest win of the season as they won 64-61 at #1 Baylor on Saturday, thus avenging their only conference loss of the season. With #2 Gonzaga having also lost Saturday, expect the Jayhawks (winners of 12 in a row) to be the new #1 when this game vs. Oklahoma State tips off Monday. We played the Under in the Baylor game, which was a winner, and it’s back to playing the total tonight. Only this time we’re looking at the Over due to the opponent being so lax defensively. In our writeup for the Kansas-Baylor game, we went into great detail about just how good both teams are defensively. Well, Oklahoma State is not great defensively. One thing the Cowboys did to impress us though is score 86 points in a win over rival Oklahoma on Saturday. Kansas has scored 87 and 91 points in its last two home games. So all signs point to a high-scoring affair tonight on ESPN. The Jayhawks average 78.7 points/game in Lawrence and the Over has hit the previous three times OSU has been a road underdog of at least 12.5 points. Play OVER Oklahoma St-Kansas AAA |
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02-23-20 | Stanford v. Washington State +3.5 | Top | 75-57 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* on WASHINGTON ST Stanford stopped the bleeding with a 72-64 upset of Washington on Thursday. But that singular win doesn’t change the fact that the Cardinal had previously lost seven of eight, which obviously put a severe damper on their NCAA Tournament hopes. Tonight they are at Washington State, a matchup the Cardinal likely feels pretty good about. But this one is trickier than it looks. Yes, Wazzu has lost three in a row overall and was just beaten here in Pullman by Cal Thursday. The Cougs were 6.5-point favorites in that loss too. But they remain 11-4 at the Paloose. They’ve got some big time revenge for a 26 point defeat suffered in Palo Alto earlier in the year. Stanford shot 61% in that game, Washington State was under 40%. It’ll be a lot different this time as we conclude by pointing out that Wazzu is a perfect 3-0 against the spread this year as a home underdog of three points or less. Play on WASHINGTON STATE AAA |
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02-23-20 | Rutgers v. Wisconsin -4.5 | Top | 71-79 | Win | 100 | 4 h 45 m | Show |
This is an 8* on WISCONSIN Whenever it’s time to analyze one of these Big 10 matchups, we start by pointing out the incredible depth in the conference. There could be as many as 11 teams making the NCAA Tournament. Wisconsin and Rutgers are among them. Right now though the Badgers are simply hotter. They’ve won three in a row, taking advantage of a somewhat “relaxed” schedule for this time of year. Today marks just the fourth game for the Badgers in the past 14 days. They beat Purdue Tuesday, continuing a string of impressive showings here in Madison that has seen them defeat the likes of Maryland, Michigan State and Ohio State. Rutgers just suffered its first home loss of the season, at the hands of Michigan, and we look for that to have an effect on them today. The Scarlet Knights have lost four of six overall. They have just ONE road win all season. Play on WISCONSIN AAA |
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02-23-20 | Temple v. East Carolina OVER 140 | Top | 63-67 | Loss | -109 | 3 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER Temple is off a wild 93-89 win over UConn. Double overtime was needed to get the victory, which was the second time the Owls prevailed in OT in their last four games. Today they’ll head to East Carolina to face a team not making much noise in the American this year. The Pirates 4-10 conference record has them a loss away from being tied for last place with Tulane, a team that they’ve beaten twice. However, ECU has at least been competitive of late. In the last week, they’ve lost by only three to Cincinnati and by four to Memphis. So Temple should consider itself forewarned. What we expect here is a high-scoring affair. While recent Temple scores have been boosted by overtime, they can still pile up the points today. When they hosted East Carolina on Feb 1, they scored 76 points. The Pirates shot very poorly in that game and should improve on their percentages now that they get to play at home. They’ve scored at least 67 in three of the last four contests. Play OVER Temple-East Carolina AAA |
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02-22-20 | Oregon +5 v. Arizona | Top | 73-72 | Win | 100 | 14 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OREGON Crucial game in the Pac 12 tonight for both teams, but particularly for Oregon as they are off a loss and a game back of Arizona in the win column. The Ducks go to Tucson Saturday night with a higher ranking for now (#14 vs. #24), but they really can’t afford another loss here. Back on January 9th, the Ducks did beat Arizona 74-73 in a close call in Eugene. Arizona comes into the rematch as a decided favorite having won three straight. They seem overvalued though in what we view as a pretty even matchup. Oregon has been an underdog just three times all season and this is the first time in over a month. Let’s not forget that it wasn’t too long ago that Arizona lost - by double digits - here at home to UCLA. The Wildcats are just 9-21 ATS in Saturday games the last three seasons. This is one of those games where you just want to play the underdog as an outright win is far more likely than a blowout by the favorite. Play on OREGON AAA |
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02-22-20 | UCLA v. Colorado -10 | Top | 70-63 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
This is an 8* on COLORADO Colorado may not be the “best” team in the Pac 12 this year but they have been the most consistent. As a result, they are the ones in first place, not Arizona nor Oregon. The Buffaloes are ranked 18th in the country and just held off USC for a 70-66 win on Thursday. They get to stay in Boulder for the weekend as now it’s UCLA that will pay a visit. The Bruins have not been consistent in the first year under Mick Cronin and we like this opportunity to fade as they are coming off an upset win at Utah a little less than 48 hours ago. The chances UCLA records two straight upset wins on the road seems very unlikely, even though right now is the hottest that the Bruins have been all season. They’ve won four in a row, starting with a win at Arizona. But Colorado is just too tough here as they have a 13-2 SU home record and give up only 61.9 points/game. Motivation will be high as this is the final home game of the season (Senior Night!) and they actually lost at UCLA by 4 points back in January. Revenge will be sweet this afternoon. Play on COLORADO AAA |
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02-22-20 | Kansas v. Baylor UNDER 129.5 | Top | 64-61 | Win | 100 | 14 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER This is the game Kansas has been waiting for. Back on January 11th, they lost at home to Baylor by a score of 67-55. Since then they’ve 11 straight wins, seven of those coming by double digits. But top-ranked Baylor isn’t going to roll over here either. The Bears have won 23 straight games. They’ve covered 17 of 25 ball games including 10 of 13 in conference play. Key to this game will be defense. These are two of the top three teams in defensive efficiency in the entire country. Kansas gives up 57.5 points/game on the road. Baylor gives up 56.2 points/game at home. The first game stayed Under by 10 points yet this O/U is just three points lower. Oddsmakers haven’t adjusted enough. The Jayhawks’ OU record in Big 12 games is 9-1. With this game being so important, both teams will be playing lockdown defense. Play on UNDER KANSAS/BAYLOR AAA |
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02-21-20 | Princeton v. Harvard UNDER 142.5 | Top | 60-61 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER Harvard trails Yale and Princeton by one game, so getting to host the latter is a big deal tonight. The Crimson won both games last week - 85-63 over Cornell and 77-63 over Columbia. Both were played right here at Lavietes Pavilion. Princeton also got to play twice at home last week, but they split the pair, losing to Yale while beating Brown. The Tigers did defeat the Crimson earlier this season 70-69 on what was a hot shooting night for them from distance (went 13 of 23 on three-pointers). That was the last Harvard game to stay Under as the last four have all gone Over. But Princeton won’t shoot as well this time around. Harvard defends exceptionally well when they’re at home, giving up just 59.4 points/game. Princeton is 6-0 Under this year in games where they came in with 5 or 6 days rest. That includes the two Friday games since Ivy League play started. Don’t forget Harvard is without top scorer Bryce Aiken as well. A lower scoring game than the first matchup, which we think this will be, makes for an easy call on the Under. Play UNDER Princeton-Harvard AAA |
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02-20-20 | Ohio State v. Iowa -2.5 | Top | 76-85 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* on Iowa We had some discussion about the Big 10 yesterday. While we came out on the wrong side of that game (Indiana-Minnesota), we’re back at it again, this time with two of the likely 10 teams that the conference will send to the NCAA Tournament. Ohio State was once ranked as high as #2 in the polls. A bad January dropped the Buckeyes standing precipitously, however, they have since rallied by winning five of their last six games. Iowa has alternated wins and losses over the last six games and is off a come from behind win at Minnesota. While recent form may be better for OSU, this game still takes place in Iowa City where the Hawkeyes have lost only one time all year and that was back in the second game. Iowa boasts one of the most efficient offenses in the country and Ohio State is only .500 overall in Big 10 play and 3-5 on the road. The Hawkeyes are 10-2 ATS at Carver Arena. Seems logical to lay the short number here. Play on IOWA AAA |
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02-19-20 | Indiana v. Minnesota -5.5 | Top | 68-56 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MINNESOTA The Big 10 will obviously be sending a lot of teams to the NCAA Tournament. Right now, if certain “bracketologists” are to be believed, the number of teams is 10. Only one other conference is likely to send more than five. Interestingly enough, neither Indiana nor Minnesota are among those 10 even though both grade out favorably against most teams from other conferences. In the case of Minnesota, a 12-12 WL record does them no favors. However, you can’t tell us that the Golden Gophers aren’t among the top 35 teams in the country. Four losses in the last five games, particularly the one vs. Iowa on Sunday, have really stung. But getting a chance to host an Indiana team that is 1-5 straight up and against the spread its last six games is an opportunity the Gophers can surely cash in on. Indiana is a dreadful 1-6 ATS in road games. They’ve lost 23 of 30 road games the last three seasons. The loss to Iowa on Sunday was just the second time Minnesota lost as a favorite this year (8-3 ATS) and they are 5-1 ATS after being held under 60 points. Play on MINNESOTA AAA |
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02-19-20 | East Carolina v. Memphis -12.5 | Top | 73-77 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on MEMPHIS There’s significant hand-wringing now over Memphis’ chances to make the NCAA Tournament. A team firmly on the “bubble” all season, the Tigers have gone out and lost three straight. Right now, no one seems to be considering Penny Hardaway’s team as being worthy of the Big Dance and without a really strong finish to the regular season, it’s difficult to imagine that changing. It is worth mentioning though that this three-game losing streak has been nothing but close games. The three losses have all been by six points or less and by a total of only 11 points. Tonight, Memphis has a golden opportunity to take its frustrations out on a lesser opponent, that being East Carolina, who is just 7-13 ATS when getting 12.5 or more on the road. The Pirates are in second to last in the American with a 4-9 conference record and have been beaten by double digits each of the last two times out. Their only conference wins since January 11th both were against Tulane, the last place team in the American. Memphis wins by an average of 17 points/game at home. Play on MEMPHIS AAA |
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02-18-20 | Kentucky v. LSU -2.5 | Top | 79-76 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LSU It wasn’t that long ago where LSU was the lone unbeaten team in SEC play and feeling really good about itself. But three losses in the past four games have dropped the Tigers out of the Top 25 and one game back of Kentucky in the SEC. But those three losses the Tigers recently suffered all have one thing in common and that’s they all took place on the road. In Baton Rouge, this team is still 13-1 and they’ve generally won by safe margins. Kentucky is not as dominant as you might think even though it is ranked 10th in the country. While the Wildcats have won eight of nine, most of the wins have come against the bottom half of the SEC. They have failed to cover five of the seven games they have played against teams that average at least 77 points game. LSU averages more than that. LSU is undervalued tonight at home. Play on LSU AAA |
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02-18-20 | Illinois +6.5 v. Penn State | Top | 62-56 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ILLINOIS Penn State is undoubtedly a hot team right. Having achieved a top 10 ranking (#9) for the first time in forever, the Nittany Lions are on an 8-0 win streak - both straight up and against the spread. Their latest conquest took place Saturday when they defeated Northwestern 77-61. It was their largest margin of victory during the win streak. Of course, Northwestern also just so happens to be the worst team in the Big 10. Illinois, while having lost four in a row, is still considered to be a NCAA Tournament team and it wasn’t that long ago that they were leading the conference! The Illini’s rough patch has included games vs. Maryland and Michigan State as well as road trips to Iowa and Rutgers. Really, they shouldn’t have been favored to win any of those games. They obviously don’t deserve to be favored tonight either, but the spread is too high in our estimation considering where Illinois was just a short time ago. Play on ILLINOIS AAA |
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02-17-20 | North Carolina +4 v. Notre Dame | Top | 76-77 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
This is an 8* on NORTH CAROLINA North Carolina isn’t going to get sympathy from anyone in the ACC or nationally. But it sure is sad to see the Tar Heels having fallen this far (last place in the ACC). For the second time this year, they’re on a five-game losing streak. They’re just 2-10 the past 12 games. But this more recent five game losing streak has seen them fall by two points or less three different times. Saturday against Virginia they lost 64-62. But you should take them here against a Notre Dame team that was just humiliated by Duke over the weekend. The Fighting Irish took a 34-point loss in Durham, which ended a six-game ATS win streak. The Irish have had some close losses of their own, namely a one-point loss at Virginia last Tuesday that went into overtime. But that Duke loss is going to be “tough to shake” and we expect there to be somewhat of a “carry over” from Saturday to tonight. Before Saturday, Notre Dame had been held to 60 points or less three different times this season. They’ve yet to cover off one of those performances. Play on NORTH CAROLINA AAA |
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02-17-20 | Xavier v. St. John's +2.5 | Top | 77-74 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ST JOHNS Xavier finds itself right on the NCAA (Tournament) bubble and something tells us that the committee cares very little about the fact that the Musketeers have covered four straight games. What the committee will focus on is the fact they lost to Butler last Wednesday, 66-61, stopping a three-game SU win streak. They are 16-9 SU, but only 9-15-1 ATS and 5-11 ATS laying points. Tonight they go to St. John’s, who is off an 80-69 win over Providence. The Red Storm averages 77.7 points/game at home, so that’s something Xavier has to contend with here. There was a meeting back on Jan 5th, won by Xavier 75-67. But in an eight-point game, St. John’s was 1 for 16 on 3PA, which definitely cost them a cover (line was +8) and possibly even an upset win. With the kind of offense the Red Storm typically produces at home, we expect better shooting tonight. They are 9-5 ATS at home and just came up big in one revenge spot (vs. Providence) and can do the same here against a Xavier team that has a losing record in Big East play. The Musketeers were down by as many as 17 against Butler and only got close when the Bulldogs lost G Aaron Thompson to injury. Play on ST. JOHNS AAA |
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02-16-20 | Utah v. Oregon -12.5 | Top | 62-80 | Win | 100 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OREGON Oregon is well-positioned right now. They are ranked #17 in the country and one win away from tying Colorado for first place in the Pac 12. Getting that win should prove to be pretty easy on Sunday as they host Utah, who has won exactly one true road game this season. Now the pointspread is in the double digits because of all you have just read, but that’s to be expected and not something we’re concerned about in the slightest. We know how the Pac 12 schedule works so this is actually the second road game of the weekend for the Utes, who lost by 19 in Corvallis (Oregon State) Thursday. Oregon won that same night, 68-60 over Colorado, to keep their record perfect (now 13-0) here in Eugene. Utah isn’t just 1-7 straight up on the road, they’re 2-6 against the spread as well and getting beaten by more than 16 points per game. Oregon already won in Salt Lake City this year and should have no problem winning big tonight. Play on OREGON AAA |
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02-15-20 | Washington v. UCLA -3 | Top | 57-67 | Win | 100 | 23 h 36 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UCLA While UCLA did win 86-83 Thursday, that wasn’t nearly good enough for us as we had them -8 against Washington State. Still, from the Bruins perspective, they’ll take the result. It was the sixth win in the last eight games and it was last Saturday that they went to Arizona and won 65-52 as a double digit dog. Now they look to win three in a row for the first time all season. They’ll face a Washington team that has been a major disappointment and is 0-6 ATS in road games. The Huskies are also 0-7 both straight up and against the spread their last seven games overall. We went against them this past Sunday when they were favored (by 2.5) at Washington State. They lost 79-67. Then they lost at USC Thursday 62-56. A third straight road game doesn’t seem like the situation UW will figure things out so we will gladly go against them again tonight. After all, earlier this year UCLA went to Seattle and won outright as an 8.5 point underdog. Play on UCLA AAA |
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02-15-20 | UNLV +3 v. New Mexico | Top | 78-73 | Win | 100 | 19 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNLV UNLV is off a tough loss to rival Nevada. That game went to overtime with the Rebels coming up just short, losing 82-79 as a 1.5 point home favorite. That was their 4th consecutive ATS loss as well as the fifth straight up loss in the last six games. Coming into Saturday, they’re just 12-14 and basically just waiting for the Mountain West Tournament to get here (which is in Vegas). New Mexico though is not doing much better as they’ve lost six of eight. Lobos games are seemingly never close. All but one of those last eight games has been decided by more than 20 points. Five of them have been losses, one of them 99-78 at UNLV. Tuesday was another humbling setback as San Diego State got them 82-59. A team like this simply can’t be trusted in the favorite role. The Lobos have failed to cover five of their last six turns as a home favorite of three points or less. UNLV was a six-point favorite when it blew out UNM last month. Even with the change in home court, we don’t think this line makes much sense. Play on UNLV AAA |
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02-15-20 | Ole Miss v. Kentucky UNDER 136.5 | Top | 62-67 | Win | 100 | 15 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER The SEC as a whole appears to be a bit overrated, but Kentucky still remains the king of this conference in our eyes. The 12th ranked Wildcats enter Saturday at 19-5 overall and 9-2 in SEC play, the latter record landing them in a first place tie with both LSU and Auburn for the time being. UK has won seven of eight with the only loss coming to Auburn and they’ve got a game at LSU on deck. Here they face an Ole Miss team that has covered six in a row. The Rebels are 4-2 in that same stretch, the only SU losses coming to … Auburn and LSU. Both Kentucky and Ole Miss faced double digit deficits in the first half Tuesday before coming back to win handily. We look for this to be somewhat of a low-scoring affair, mainly because Mississippi only averages 61.7 points/game on the road. Kentucky gives up only 62.9 points/game at home. The key then becomes how well the Rebels can defend. Seeing as how they’ve held the last five opponents to below 40% shooting, we think the answer is “well.” Six of the Rebels seven road games this year have stayed Under. Play UNDER Ole Miss/Kentucky AAA |
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02-15-20 | Northwestern +13 v. Penn State | Top | 61-77 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
This is an 8* on NORTHWESTERN Seemingly out of nowhere, Penn State has emerged as a “darkhorse” Final Four candidate. Yes, Penn State! The Nittany Lions are ranked #13 in the country and will certainly move up were they to win today. They’re on a 7-0 SU and ATS win streak after going to Purdue and winning 88-76 as a 5-point dog earlier this week. That’s quite the impressive streak. Early Saturday PSU host Northwestern in what seems to be the Nittany Lions “easiest” Big 10 game of the year. But that also makes this a surprisingly dangerous spot to be laying this many points. Penn State is used to being the hunter rather than the hunted. Today marks just the 4th time in the last 9 games that they have been the betting favorite. It will also by the most points they’ve had to lay to a Big 10 opponent in a long time. Northwestern has lost eight in a row but only twice during that streak have they gone down by more than 13 points. They are 6-2 ATS on the road. Look for this to be a tighter game than expected. Play on NORTHWESTERN AAA |
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02-14-20 | Akron v. Central Michigan OVER 155 | Top | 80-67 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Akron just notched a pretty big win, beating MAC-leading Bowling Green 74-59. That the Zips were a 6.5-point favorite for that contest should tell you who oddsmakers think is the best team in this conference. Tonight’s game is against a wounded Central Michigan team that has lost two in a row. Tuesday, the Chippewas lost 73-70 at home to Eastern Michigan. They were outscored 45-35 in the second half. It was a much different showing that what they turned in their own home win over Bowling Green where CMU finished with 92 points. Make no mistake about it - the Chippewas are one of the highest scoring teams in the country. They average 81.3 points/game, which is sixth most in the entire country. The offensive numbers at home are eye-popping. It’s a 90.3 point/game average here. That’s enough to convince us that Over is the correct call here. Akron isn’t going to match the defensive efforts from its last two games. But they should hit their 76.0 point/game average. Play OVER Akron/Central Michigan AAA |
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02-14-20 | Davidson +4 v. St Bonaventure | Top | 93-64 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DAVIDSON St. Bonaventure has been picking off the bottom feeders of the Atlantic 10 and the result is a five-game win streak entering Friday. The Bonnies’ last four wins were against George Mason, George Washington, Duquesne and St. Louis. They covered the spread against all four. They’ve now risen to third place in the conference and have to be feeling pretty good about themselves. On the surface, laying a short number with the Bonnies at home against 12-11 Davidson seems logical. But Davidson is an underrated team. The Wildcats crushed Fordham 79-49 Tuesday, their second win by at least 30 points this month. In the last seven games, Davidson has suffered just one regulation loss and it was to preseason conference favorite VCU. While they’ve struggled as an underdog this year, this looks like a spot where they pull the upset. They’re 8-3 ATS when off a win by 20 or more points the last couple seasons. Play on DAVIDSON AAA |
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02-13-20 | Washington State v. UCLA -8 | Top | 83-86 | Loss | -108 | 29 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UCLA Washington State proved to be a huge revelation on this end when they upset Washington over the weekend. That was a huge play for us and the Cougars delivered a 79-67 victory as 2.5-point home dogs. But the road has been a much different story for this team. They’ve covered only six of the last 21 times including 1-5 ATS in 2019-20. Bottom line is that this is a game UCLA needs to have. The Bruins just beat a much better Pac 12 team, Arizona, 65-52 as a 12.5 point underdog last weekend. They’ve got revenge here for a 79-71 loss in Pullman earlier this year. UCLA has won three of four and five of seven, so they’re in better form now. They are 10-5 ATS the last 15 times they’ve played with revenge for a road loss. Play on UCLA AAA |
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02-12-20 | Rutgers v. Ohio State -5.5 | Top | 66-72 | Win | 100 | 8 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OHIO STATE Ohio State was once ranked as high as #3 in the entire country. Now the Buckeyes find themselves in 10th place in the Big 10 with a 5-7 conference won-loss record. Despite their relatively poor effort at Wisconsin Sunday, we are still of the belief that OSU remains one of the better teams in the Big 10 and the entire country for that matter! Look for them to handle their business tonight in Columbus against a Rutgers team that seems to be failing under the pressure of expectations. The Scarlet Knights managed to get into the Top 25 a couple weeks ago, but then lost two straight (to Michigan and Maryland), followed up by an unimpressive win over Northwestern. Not only is Rutgers only 1-4 ATS its past five games, they have just one true road win all year and that was against Nebraska, who along with Northwestern represent the two “weak” Big 10 teams this year. Ohio State keeps teams to 57.0 PPG at home where they are 9-4 ATS. Expect this to be a statement-type game by the Buckeyes. Play on OHIO STATE AAA |
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