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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-17-22 | Blackhawks v. Seattle Kraken OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -104 | 7 h 50 m | Show |
NHL Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Seattle at 5:05 pm et on Monday. This total has been set too low, largely due to recent results. Note that the first meeting between these two teams this season totalled six goals as the Blackhawks skated to a 4-2 win here in Seattle. Chicago enters this game having allowed two goals or less in four straight games. Keep in mind, we're talking about a team that has allowed 3.2 goals per game this season and 3.4 goals per game on the road. Seattle is reeling right now and has scored only two goals over its last two games. The Kraken do average 2.8 goals per game on home ice this season. Note that the 'over' has gone 7-1 with the Kraken coming off a loss by two goals or more against a division rival this season, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 7.2 goals. As for the Blackhawks, the 'over' is 9-1 with Chicago coming off three consecutive games allowing two goals or less, which is the situation here. That spot has produced an average total of 7.0 goals. Take the over (10*). |
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01-14-22 | Ducks v. Wild -150 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
NHL Western Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Minnesota over Anaheim at 8:05 pm et on Friday. The Wild recently lost five games in a row but rebounded from that stretch with consecutive wins over the Bruins and Capitals prior to a five-day break. Now they get this Friday night home game against the reeling Ducks - a team they've absolutely owned in recent years - before heading out on the road for two games at the start of next week. I look for Minnesota to take full advantage of this favorable spot. You would have to go back 10 meetings to January of last year to find the last time the Ducks defeated the Wild. Even that win was somewhat fortunate as they prevailed by a 1-0 score on home ice. They haven't won a game here in Minnesota in over two years. It's not as if Anaheim enters this game playing its best either. The Ducks have only home wins over the Flyers and Red Wings (that win came in a shootout - we won with Anaheim on that night) over their last eight games. They're just 7-10 on the road this season where they average 2.8 goals per game. That's a far cry from Minnesota's 11-4 home record and 4.3 goals per game. While the Wild are likely to be without goaltender Cam Talbot once again on Friday, that's not necessarily a bad thing. Backup Kaapo Kahkonen has played well in his absence, most recently helping the Wild to those consecutive wins over the Bruins and Caps, allowing only four goals on 69 shots along the way. While Minnesota is still missing a number of players due to illness or injury, it is expected to have Kirill Kaprizov back in the lineup for Friday's game, giving its offense a much-needed boost. Here, we'll note that the Wild are a perfect 5-0 the last five times they've come off five or six losses in their last seven games, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 1.8 goals on average in that spot. The Wild are also 23-7 in their last 30 home games following a win, outscoring opponents by 1.2 goals on average in that situation. Take Minnesota (10*). |
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01-13-22 | Canadiens v. Blackhawks OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -111 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
NHL Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Montreal and Chicago at 8:35 pm et on Thursday. The last time these two teams met back in early December the Blackhawks skated to a low-scoring 2-0 victory. I expect a much different story to unfold as the scene shifts to Chicago on Thursday. Montreal is coming off a 5-1 loss in Boston last night. That's notable as the 'over' has gone 10-1 in the Habs last 11 road games in the second of back-to-backs, resulting in an average total of 7.6 goals. The Blackhawks are back home after scoring 10 goals over the course of a three-game road trip. Note that the 'over' is 12-3 the last 15 times Chicago comes off a road win by two or more goals, as is the case here following Tuesday's 4-2 victory in Columbus. That situation has produced an average total of 7.6 goals as well. While the Habs are missing a number of key contributors up front and have had an awful time trying to find the back of the net, this is a more favorable matchup than they've seen recently (their last four games have come at Tampa, Carolina, Florida and Boston), noting that the Hawks allow 3.4 goals per game on home ice this season. Montreal will likely be forced to go with Sam Montembault between the pipes in this one after he came on in relief of an injured Jake Allen last night. Montembault has allowed a whopping 17 goals in his last four games. Take the over (10*). |
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01-11-22 | Maple Leafs v. Golden Knights -103 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -103 | 15 h 21 m | Show |
NHL Revenge Game of the Year. My selection is on Vegas over Toronto at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Leafs skated to a 4-0 win the last time these two teams met back on November 2nd in Toronto. That result actually sets the Golden Knights up particularly well here, noting that Vegas has gone an incredible 14-1 the last 15 times it has been seeking revenge for a road loss by three goals or more against an opponent, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.8 goals in that situation. Here, we'll also note that the Leafs are 0-5 the last five times they've played on the road following a one-goal road loss, as is the case here, outscored by 2.0 goals on average in that spot. The Leafs are also just 7-12 in their last 19 games following an overtime loss, outscored by an average margin of 0.6 goals along the way. For the Golden Knights this is a key spot as they're coming off a flat performance in a 2-1 home loss to the lowly Blackhawks (who had Marc-Andre Fleury in goal for his first return to Las Vegas since leaving the Knights). Note that Vegas won't play again until January 17th after this game so they'll certainly want to go into the break on a positive note. The Leafs on the other hand are on the front half of a back-to-back with a very winnable game on deck in Arizona tomorrow night. Take Vegas (10*). |
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01-10-22 | Bruins v. Capitals OVER 5.5 | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 20 m | Show |
NHL Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Washington at 7:05 pm et on Monday. Despite a relatively low-scoring playoff series between these two teams last spring, we've still seen four of the last seven meetings here in Washington go 'over' the total and I like the way this one sets up as a relatively high-scoring affair as well. Boston has scored exactly five goals in three of its last four games and is well-positioned for another strong offensive performance here. Note that the 'over' is a perfect 8-0 with the Bruins coming off a division win this season, as is the case here, as they've averaged 3.9 goals in that spot with an average total of 7.0 goals. The Caps have been held to three goals or less in four straight games - their longest such streak of the season. Keep in mind, three of those last four contests were played on the road. Here at home, Washington averages 3.5 goals per game this season with an average total of 6.1 goals. We'll note that the 'over' is 25-14 the last 39 times the Caps have come off an 'under' result, as is the case here, with an average total of 6.4 goals scored in that situation. Take the over (10*) |
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01-08-22 | Bruins v. Lightning -146 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -146 | 31 h 35 m | Show |
NHL Atlantic Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Tampa Bay over Boston at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. We've been high on the Lightning lately, most recently cashing with them in Thursday's 4-1 win over the Flames. I won't hesitate to get behind them again on Saturday, even as they face an arguably tougher matchup against the Bruins. Boston should be in a foul mood after dropping a 3-2 decision at home against Minnesota on Thursday. The Bruins have had a difficult time stepping up in class this season and I expect a similar story to unfold here. To that point, the Lightning took the first meeting between these two teams this season by a 3-2 score in Boston back in early December. Note that Boston checks in just 17-21 the last 38 times it has come off two wins in its last three games, as is the case here, averaging just 2.6 goals per game in that spot. Meanwhile, the Lighting are an impressive 40-15 in their last 55 games after allowing two goals or less in consecutive contests, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.9 goals in that situation. The Lightning are as healthy as they've been all season while the Bruins are dealing with injuries to a few key role players, not to mention defensive anchor Charlie McAvoy, who is questionable to play on Saturday. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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01-07-22 | Capitals v. Blues UNDER 6 | Top | 1-5 | Push | 0 | 25 h 59 m | Show |
NHL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and St. Louis at 8:05 pm et on Friday. Both the Capitals and Blues will be looking to bounce back from losses on Friday night with Washington coming off a 4-3 home loss against the Devils and St. Louis fresh off a tough 5-3 loss in Pittsburgh - a game in which they blew a 3-2 third period lead. You would have to go back three meetings to find the last time a matchup between these two teams went 'over' five goals. Note that the Caps are giving up just 2.6 goals per game on the road this season while the Blues have allowed just 2.4 goals per game on home ice. Here, we'll also note that the 'under' is a stellar 15-5 the last 20 times the Blues have come off consecutive games totalling seven goals or more, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of only 4.8 goals. The 'under' is also a perfect 5-0 the last five times St. Louis has played at home after winning four or five of its last six games, producing an average total of only 4.4 goals. Take the under (10*). |
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01-06-22 | Flames v. Lightning -138 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 30 h 7 m | Show |
NHL Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Tampa Bay over Calgary at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. We won with the Flames in their most recent victory on Sunday in Chicago but stayed away on Tuesday and rightfully so as they fell in blowout fashion against the Panthers. Credit the Flames for returning to the ice with a pair of wins to open this trip but it was always going to get tougher in Florida and I don't see Calgary getting back in the win column on Thursday against the Lightning. Tampa Bay rebounded from a rare three-game losing streak with a resounding 7-4 win in Columbus on Tuesday. Essentially as healthy as they've been all season, I like the Lightning's chances during this brief two-game homestand, noting they've gone 11-6 on home ice this season and have outscored opponents by an average margin of 1.0 goal the last 42 times they've come off two losses in their last three games, as is the case here. You would have to go back three meetings here in Tampa, all the way to 2018 to find the last time Calgary won a game at Amalie Arena. Since then, the Bolts have reeled off four straight wins against the Flames, scoring a whopping 22 goals in the process. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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12-31-21 | Capitals -150 v. Red Wings | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
NHL Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Washington over Detroit at 7:35 pm et on Friday. I like what I saw from the Capitals as they jumped ahead early, blew a 3-0 lead but then rallied to win 5-3 against the Predators in their first game back from the holiday break two nights ago. We've seen some of that shakiness from most teams in their first game back on the ice, and should anticipate the same from the Red Wings on Friday. The Caps have most of their key contributors back from the Covid list and are primed to go on a run. They've only managed to split the first two meetings in this series this season but I like their chances here, noting the Red Wings have averaged just 1.7 goals and have been outscored by an average margin of 1.4 goals when coming off consecutive games in which they scored 3+ goals, as is the case here, over the last two seasons (14-game sample size). Take Washington (10*). |
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12-28-21 | Coyotes +1.5 v. Sharks | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 37 h 24 m | Show |
NHL Puck-Line Game of the Month. My selection is on Arizona +1.5 goals over Los Angeles at 10:35 pm et on Tuesday. The extended holiday break probably came at a good time for the Coyotes, who can use this restart to the season perhaps as a perfect reset, and hopefully turning point for the campaign. Arizona did go into the break on a positive note, off a big 6-5 upset win in Anaheim. San Jose, meanwhile, limped into the break off consecutive home losses against Seattle and Vancouver. The Sharks are just 7-8 on home ice this season, outscored by an average margin of 0.7 goals so the case can certainly be made that they have no business laying such a steep price, regardless the opponent. The Coyotes are 4-12 on the road but actually allow just 0.1 goals per game more on average than the Sharks do at home. Here, we'll note that the Coyotes are 6-1 the last seven times they've played on the road after scoring six goals or more in their previous game, outscoring opponents by 1.2 goals on average in that spot. The Sharks are a woeful 2-12 when playing four or more consecutive games at home, outscored by 2.2 goals on average. Take Arizona +1.5 goals (10*). |
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12-28-21 | Golden Knights -148 v. Kings | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 37 h 14 m | Show |
NHL Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Vegas over Los Angeles at 10:35 pm et on Tuesday. I really like the way this one sets up as a big revenge spot for the Golden Knights after they dropped a 6-2 decision against the Kings in the first meeting between these division rivals this season. Note that Vegas has gone an incredible 13-1 when seeking revenge for a road loss by three goals or more against an opponent, as is the case here, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.7 goals in that situation. The Kings, meanwhile, are a woeful 2-14 when coming off four or more consecutive road games over the last three seasons, outscored by 1.3 goals on average in that spot. Interestingly, the Kings have averaged just 1.9 goals the last nine times they've played after being off for three or more days, which is obviously the case here following the extended holiday break. The Knights check in averaging an impressive 3.7 goals on the road this season, where they've gone 10-5. Take Vegas (10*). |
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12-16-21 | Canucks v. Sharks -125 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -125 | 15 h 48 m | Show |
NHL Pacific Division Game of the Year. My selection is on San Jose over Vancouver at 10:35 pm et on Thursday. The Sharks are one of the few teams in the NHL not dealing with Covid issues right now (I realize the situation is very fluid). Here, I think they're catching the Canucks at the right time, 'fat and happy' off five straight wins and with this being a tough one-game trip before heading back home for two. The Sharks are off a tough 3-1 loss to expansion Seattle two nights ago as they ran into a hot goalie in Chris Driedger (seems strange saying that but San Jose outshot Seattle 34-30 in that contest). The Canucks recent success has come at home. They're still just 5-9 on the road this season where they allow 3.6 goals per game. Things aren't going to get any easier on Thursday as they'll be missing a number of key cogs due to Covid protocols. Note that the Sharks have done a tremendous job of tightening things up defensively off a home loss this season, allowing only 1.2 goals per game the six previous times that situation has come up, outscoring opponents by 1.1 goals on average in that spot. Take San Jose (10*). |
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12-15-21 | Rangers v. Coyotes OVER 5.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
NHL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Arizona at 9:05 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'over' as the Rangers continue their road trip in Glendale on Wednesday night. This is of course a back-to-back spot for New York after losing by a 4-2 score in Colorado last night (we won with the Avalanche in that game). You have to wonder whether New York will go back to Alex Georgiev in goal as this would be his third game in the last four nights and fourth in the last six. Georgiev has been serviceable this season but certainly not elite, posting an .898 save percentage. Keith Kinkaid was the backup last night while Igor Shesterkin continues to work his way back from injury and likely isn't ready to go just yet. The Coyotes will have Scott Wedgewood in goal. In his last five contests, the Coyotes have given up 3, 4, 5, 3 and 5 goals. Note that the 'Yotes are allowing a whopping 4.6 goals per game on home ice this season. While they average just 2.3 goals per game here in Glendale, they are in a favorable spot here, noting that they average 2.8 goals per game when coming off consecutive home losses over the last three seasons. Take the over (10*). |
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12-14-21 | Islanders -119 v. Red Wings | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -119 | 31 h 58 m | Show |
NHL Eastern Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on New York over Detroit at 7:35 pm et on Tuesday. We missed with the Isles here in Detroit less than two weeks ago as they fell in overtime by a 4-3 score. That was in the midst of an awful Covid-tinged stretch that saw New York lose 11 consecutive games. The Isles have seemingly turned things around now, however, as they've won two of their last three games with the lone loss coming thanks to a late lapse against the Preds on home ice. After finally winning their first game at brand new UBS Arena on Saturday night I think the monkey is off their back in some sense. Look for them to earn an ounce of revenge as they head to Motown on Tuesday night. The Red Wings are off to a fine start all things considered, but they haven't been overly consistent. They check into this game off three consecutive losses and there were some really concerning signs in all three as they were outscored by a wide margin of 18-7. Sometimes when the floodgates open it's difficult for a team to regain its footing - just ask the Islanders. Here, I look for New York to take full advantage of Detroit's recent woes, noting that the Wings are a miserable 6-32 in their last 38 games after allowing four goals or more in consecutive games, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 1.7 goals in that situation. Take New York (10*). |
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12-09-21 | Wild -139 v. Sharks | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 15 h 54 m | Show |
NHL Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Minnesota over San Jose at 10:35 pm et on Thursday. The Wild are rolling right now, winners of seven games in a row heading into Thursday's matchup in San Jose. I look for them to keep rolling, noting that the Sharks have just one victory in their last three games and that was essentially gift-wrapped for them thanks to an awful performance from the Flames after they had built a 3-1 lead. Keep in mind, the Wild will have revenge on their minds here after suffering a 4-1 loss on home ice against the Sharks back on November 16th. nNote that San Jose averages a woeful 1.9 goals per game the last 16 times it has played at home after scoring three goals or more in consecutive games, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 0.7 goals in that situation. After Tuesday's win in Edmonton, the Wild are now 8-5 on the road this season, averaging 3.2 goals per game along the way. While the Sharks have posted a winning record at home at 6-5 on the season, they've actually been outscored by an average margin of 0.4 goals. Take Minnesota (10*). |
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12-08-21 | Stars v. Golden Knights -135 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 16 h 53 m | Show |
NHL Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Vegas over Dallas at 10:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Knights have quietly gotten healthy but are still looking for consistency as they aim for their first three-game winning streak since early November on Wednesday night. Meanwhile, Dallas has ripped off seven straight victories with six of those coming on home ice. The Stars' last two opponents have been punchless as the Blue Jackets and Coyotes combined to score just three goals on a miserable 41 shots on goal. Keep in mind, while the Stars did prevail, in their last two games against opposition with a pulse they've been outshot by a 77-39 combined margin against the Avalanche and Hurricanes. They're likely to face an onslaught here with the Knights having scored 15 goals over their last three games and averaging 3.2 goals per game on home ice this season. By contrast, Dallas averages just 2.4 goals per game on the road, where it has gone 4-6 and been outscored by an average margin of 1.1 goals. Dallas has played just three games here in Vegas all-time, only managing a single win with that coming back in the Knights inaugural season. Take Vegas (10*). |
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12-04-21 | Islanders -135 v. Red Wings | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -135 | 33 h 51 m | Show |
NHL Eastern Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on New York over Detroit at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. We missed with the Islanders in Thursday's tough 2-1 overtime loss to the surging Sharks. I won't hesitate to go back to the well on Saturday, however, as the Isles hit the road looking to pick up a crucial two points against the red hot Wings. New York has now dropped nine straight games, influenced largely by Covid-related absences. The Isles are as healthy as they've been in quite some time now though, and picking up a point in Thursday's overtime loss could certainly be viewed as a positive. Saturday's game opens a stretch of three in a row against likely non-playoff teams, so they'll need to take full advantage. While Detroit has won four games in a row, only one of those wins was a real head-turner and that came in Boston in a game where the Wings were outshot by a 42-16 margin. Here, we find the Wings averaging just 1.8 goals, outscored by an average margin of 0.7 goals the last 19 times they've played at home off a home win. Under coach Jeff Blashill, the Wings have gone 19-37 when coming off four or five wins in their last six games, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 0.6 goals in that situation. Note that the Isles have taken each of the last three meetings in this series by a combined 16-4 margin and have come away victorious in four of their last five trips to Detroit. Take New York (10*). |
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12-02-21 | Blues v. Lightning UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
NHL Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between St. Louis and Tampa Bay at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. We saw seven total goals between these two teams in the front half of this home-and-home series two nights ago. Here, I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair as the scene shifts to Tampa on Thursday. Note that the 'under' is 11-3 in the Blues last 14 road games when coming off consecutive contests in which they allowed three goals or more, resulting in an average total of just 5.1 goals. Better still, the 'under' is a perfect 6-0 the last six times the Blues have played on the road after allowing 3+ goals in three straight games, producing an average total of only 4.0 goals. The Lightning will be looking to tighten things up after consecutive losses in which they allowed eight goals. Note that they're giving up just 2.6 goals per game on home ice this season. They should have Andrei Vasilevskiy back between the pipes after journeyman backup Brian Elliott manned the net in Tuesday's loss. Vasilevskiy owns a .926 save percentage this season compared to Elliott's .887. Take the under (10*). |
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11-22-21 | Penguins v. Jets OVER 5.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -111 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
NHL Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Pittsburgh and Winnipeg at 8:35 pm et on Monday. You would have to go back five meetings, all the way to December of 2015 to find the last time a matchup between these two teams in Winnipeg stayed 'under' seven total goals. We're able to play this one at a 5.5 largely due to the fact that the Penguins have seen two of their last three games total three goals or less while the Jets are coming off consecutive 'under' results. I expect a different story to unfold here. Note that the 'over' is 21-10 when the Pens come off a game that totaled four goals or less over the last three seasons, producing an average total of 6.8 goals in that spot. Meanwhile, the Jets have seen an average total of 6.5 goals the last 16 times they've come off consecutive 'under' results, as is the case here. Take the over (10*). |
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11-19-21 | Jets +100 v. Canucks | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
NHL Pacific Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Winnipeg over Vancouver at 10:05 pm et on Friday. The Jets might look like they're in a tough spot here as they play the second of back-to-back games after a shootout loss in Edmonton last night. I actually like their chances of bouncing back, however, noting that they've gone 11-1 in their lat 12 games following an OT/SO loss, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.7 goals in that situation. Of course, Winnipeg has proven to be a resilient team in recent years, going 22-11 in its last 33 games following a road loss of any kind over the last 2+ seasons, outscoring opponents by 1.2 goals on average in that spot. The Canucks are playing as bad as any team in the league right now as far as I'm concerned and you have to figure head coach Travis Green's days behind the bench are numbered at this point. They'll be in better position to snap their losing skid when they host the Blackhawks on Sunday. Take Winnipeg (10*). |
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11-18-21 | Lightning -128 v. Flyers | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
NHL Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Tampa Bay over Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The two-time defending Stanley Cup champion Lightning have quietly gotten rolling lately, going 6-2 over their last eight games with the only two losses coming by way of overtime. Here, the Bolts will head to Philadelphia, where they haven't dropped a game since January of 2017. The Flyers are coming off an overtime win over the Flames two nights ago. That's worth noting as they've given up an average of 5.4 goals and have been outscored by 2.9 goals on average the last eight times they've come off an overtime victory. In fact, the Flyers are 9-22 when coming off a win going back to last season, outscored by an average margin of 1.4 goals in that situation. Worse still, they've gone a woeful 3-14 the last 17 times they've come off a one-goal victory, as is the case here, outscored by 2.3 goals on average in that spot. The Lightning have been an excellent positive momentum team in similar situations to the one they're in tonight, noting that they're 10-1 the last 11 times they've come off consecutive home victories, outscoring opponents by 1.4 goals on average. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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11-17-21 | Capitals -105 v. Kings | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
NHL Game of the Week. My selection is on Washington over Los Angeles at 10:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Capitals saw their four-game winning streak come to an end against the red hot Ducks in Anaheim last night. Credit Washington for at least stealing a point in that game, losing the game in overtime. Here, I like the Caps to bounce right back as they make the short trip to Los Angeles to face the Kings. L.A. has somewhat surprisingly posted seven wins in its last eight games. This is a bit of a tough spot, however, as it returns home 'fat and happy' off a successful four-game road trip that took it across two time zones up north. We'll note that the Kings are a woeful 2-13 the last 15 times they've come off four consecutive road games, outscored by 1.2 goals on average in that spot. The last six times they've returned home off at least four straight road games they've averaged just 1.8 goals and have been outscored by an average margin of 0.9 goals. You would have to go back five meetings to find the last time the Kings beat the Capitals, back in March of 2018. The Caps have come away victorious in each of their last two games in Los Angeles. The last time we saw them play here in late 2019 they were priced as a -150 favorite and skated to a 3-1 win. We're dealing with a much cheaper price to support them here and I like their chances of picking up another victory. Take Washington (10*). |
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11-16-21 | Red Wings v. Stars UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
NHL Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Dallas at 8:35 pm et on Tuesday. The 'over' has now cashed in each of the Stars last five games but I see this as a favorable spot for that trend to reverse as the Red Wings roll into Dallas on the back half of a back-to-back. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 10-1 with the Red Wings playing on the road after scoring three goals or more in consecutive games going back to last season with that situation producing an average total of just 4.5 goals. The 'under' is also 11-2 the last 13 times the Wings have played on the road following a game that totaled eight goals or more, as is the case here after last night's 5-3 loss in Columbus (we won with the Blue Jackets in that game). That spot has led to an average total of 4.6 goals. As for the Stars, the 'under' is 18-7 the last 25 times they've come off five or more consecutive 'over' results, leading to an average total of only 4.8 goals in that situation. The 'under' is also a long-term winner at 174-130, averaging 5.3 total goals, when Dallas comes off a win by three goals or more, as is the case here. We'll likely see Alex Nedeljkovic in goal for the Wings tonight after Thomas Greiss started last night. Nedeljkovic has been the better goaltender this season, posting a solid .929 save percentage in four road games. While the 'over' has cashed in two of the last three meetings in this series, the 'under' remains a solid 6-3 in the last nine matchups between these two teams. Take the under (10*). |
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11-16-21 | Sabres v. Penguins OVER 6 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 33 h 45 m | Show |
NHL Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Buffalo and Pittsburgh at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. Both of these teams have been trending toward the 'over' lately and I expect that trend to continue on Tuesday night in Pittsburgh. The Sabres have seen five of their last six games go 'over' the total as their defensive and goaltending woes continue. Here, we'll note that the 'over' has gone 21-9 in their last 30 games when coming off a one-goal loss, resulting in an average total of 6.9 goals. While not much was expected from the Sabres offensively this season, they have actually been pretty consistent in that regard, scoring two goals or more in nine straight games and three or more in seven of those nine contests. The Pens check in having allowed a whopping 12 goals over their last two games - both losses. Like Buffalo, Pittsburgh has an ongoing problem with keeping the puck out of its own net. Note that the 'over' is a staggering 11-1 in the Pens last 12 games following a road loss by two goals or more, producing an average total of 8.2 goals in that spot. Tristan Jarry will likely get the start in goal for the Pens in this one. His last four home starts against the Sabres have resulted in 12, 7, 7 and 6 total goals. If we don't see Jarry in this one that would mean Casey DeSmith would get the start and he has posted an ugly .856 save percentage in three games this season. Take the over (10*). |
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11-10-21 | Wild v. Coyotes OVER 5.5 | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 33 h 26 m | Show |
NHL Central Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Arizona at 10:05 pm et on Wednesday. After being held to a grand total of three goals over a five-game stretch we saw the Coyotes finally break out and earn their first win of the season in the process in their most recent game - a 5-4 victory over the expansion Kraken on Saturday. They've now scored 10 goals in three home games this season and I believe they're well-positioned to contribute enough offensively to help this one 'over' the total on Wednesday as well. Minnesota has had no such problems scoring goals. In fact, the Wild check in having won three straight games, scoring 13 goals in regulation time along the way. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 8-1 the last nine times the Wild have come off a win by three goals or more, with that situation producing an average total of 7.2 goals. We've seen Minnesota allow an ugly 3.9 goals on average the last 21 times they've come off a home win by two goals or more. The Coyotes on the other hand have posted a 24-13 o/u record after losing three of their last four games over the last 2+ seasons, with an average total of 6.0 goals in that spot. Arizona averages 3.2 goals when playing at home after giving up four goals or more in its most recent contest going back to last season as well. Of course, the 'Yotes have had major issues between the pipes this season. They've already used four different goaltenders and none of them have fared all that well. On the flip side, the Wild haven't been all that stout at the back end either. Cam Talbot has been the better of their goaltending duo but even he owns a less than impressive .904 save percentage. The most recent meeting in this series totaled just five goals here in Arizona last April. To find the last time consecutive meetings in Arizona stayed 'under' six total goals you would have to go back to a stretch between December 2015 and April 2017 - that's going back eight meetings here in the desert. Take the over (10*). |
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11-09-21 | Seattle Kraken v. Golden Knights -135 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 34 h 30 m | Show |
NHL Pacific Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Vegas over Seattle at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Golden Knights are coming off an inexplicable 5-2 loss to the lowly Red Wings in Detroit on Sunday and I think that has a lot of bettors a little spooked to back them as they return home to host the expansion Kraken on Tuesday. We won't shy away, however. You could argue that the Knights essentially 'punted' that game in Detroit, starting backup goaltender Laurent Brossoit in what was a second of back-to-back and three-in-four situation. Prior to that contest Vegas had won consecutive games in Ottawa and Montreal, scoring 10 goals in the process. Despite Sunday's loss, I don't think the Knights will be returning home hanging their heads having won five of their last seven overall. Like most expansion teams, the Kraken have struggled to win games or even stay competitive on the road. They check in 1-6 on the road this season, outscored by 1.7 goals on average. Here, we'll note that the Knights have gone 15-4 when coming off a road loss by three goals or more over the last 2+ seasons, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 1.5 goals on average in that spot. They also check in allowing just 2.1 goals on average the last 22 times they've come off a game in which they gave up 5+ goals. While they're still missing a number of key players due to injury, that's certainly been factored into this price. Take Vegas (10*). |
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11-04-21 | Golden Knights v. Senators UNDER 6 | Top | 5-1 | Push | 0 | 33 h 53 m | Show |
NHL Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Vegas and Ottawa at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'over' in the Senators most recent game - a 5-4 overtime loss in Minnesota on Tuesday. In fact, we also won in their previous game, fading them against the Blackhawks in Monday's 5-1 loss. Here, I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' as the Sens return home to host the Golden Knights. Vegas is coming off a 4-0 loss in Toronto on Tuesday (we cashed a free play on the 'under' in that game). Scoring goals with any sort of consistency has been an issue for the Golden Knights this season, largely due to injuries to three of their top offensive threats in Mark Stone, Max Pacioretty and most recently William Karlsson. Note that the 'under' has gone 12-4 with the Golden Knights playing on the road off a game in which they allowed four goals or more going back to last season, as is the case here, with that spot producing an average total of just 4.4 goals. The 'under' is also 17-8 with the Knights playing on the road off a loss over the same stretch, resulting in an average total of 5.1 goals. On the flip side, the Senators have seen the 'under' go 10-1 the last 11 times they've played at home after losing four or five of their last six contests, as is the case here, with an average total of only 4.7 goals scored in that situation. Reeling off back-to-back losses in which they gave up nine goals in regulation time, I do expect Ottawa to tighten things up here. On the flip side, you would have to go back five meetings to find the lat time the Sens scored more than three goals in a game against Vegas. Take the under (10*). |
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11-04-21 | Flyers v. Penguins -139 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 32 h 27 m | Show |
NHL Rivalry Game of the Month. My selection is on Pittsburgh over Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. PLEASE NOTE: We'll downgrade this play with the news that Sidney Crosby will be sidelined due to testing positive for Covid. I'm still on the Penguins in this spot but as a 6* play. We missed with the Penguins in their most recent game as they fell by a 4-2 score in a late collapse against the Devils on home ice. That was of course Sidney Crosby's much-awaited season debut for the Pens. While it didn't go as they had hoped, I do expect them to bounce back against the rival Flyers on Thursday night. Note that Pittsburgh is in an excellent situation here having gone 17-3 the last 20 times it has played at home after giving up three goals or more in consecutive games over the last 2+ seasons, outscoring the opposition by 1.8 goals on average in that spot. The Flyers are fresh off a 3-0 home victory over the still-winless Coyotes on Tuesday. Note that Philadelphia is a woeful 9-19 the last 28 times it has come off a win, outscored by an average margin of 1.3 goals in that situation. Having won here in Pittsburgh by a 2-1 score last April, the Flyers will be looking to notch a second straight win at PPG Paints Arena. They haven't accomplished that feat since winning here in December 2018 and March 2019. I expect the Pens to avoid the same fate here. Take Pittsburgh (6*). |
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11-03-21 | Blues v. Kings OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -109 | 32 h 40 m | Show |
NHL Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between St. Louis and Los Angeles at 10:05 pm et on Wednesday. When we last saw these two teams square off they combined to score just three goals with the Blues contributing all of the offense in a 3-0 shutout win. Keep in mind, that was in the back half of a two-game set in St. Louis. Here, I look for the Kings to put up more of a fight and expect a relatively high-scoring affair. Note that the Blues are coming off a 1-0 win over the Blackhawks on Saturday. That actually sets us up well for an 'over' result here, noting that the 'over' has gone 23-11 when the Blues come off a game that totaled four goals or less over the last 2+ seasons, resulting in an average total of 6.6 goals. Better still, the 'over' is 8-1 over that same stretch when St. Louis comes off a game that totaled three goals or less, leading to an average total of 8.0 goals. The Blues have averaged 3.6 goals when coming off a one-goal victory over the last 2+ seasons, as is the case here but they've also allowed 3.0 goals on average after winning four or five of their last six games going back to last season. While the Kings have been fairly inconsistent offensively, they haven't been as prone to scoring droughts as they were last season - at least not so far this season - checking in averaging 2.7 goals per game overall with that average jumping to 3.6 goals here at Staples Center. Take the over (10*). |
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11-02-21 | Stars v. Jets -120 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
NHL Central Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Winnipeg over Dallas at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Jets got caught flat-footed against the Sharks on Saturday (we won with the 'under' in that game), perhaps overlooking a San Jose squad that was missing five players due to Covid protocols. Here, I look for the Jets to bounce back as they return home to host the reeling Stars on Tuesday. Dallas is coming off three straight losses, scoring just four goals in the process. Note that the Stars are just 2-11 after scoring a goal or less in their last game going back to last season (they're coming off a 4-1 loss to Ottawa), outscored by an average margin of 0.8 goals in that spot. Worse still, Dallas is 0-6 the last six times it has gone on the road after playing two or more consecutive games at home, as is the case here, outscored by 2.3 goals on average in that spot. Meanwhile, the Jets are a somewhat inexplicable 9-1 in their last 10 games following an overtime loss, averaging 3.5 goals and outscoring the opposition by 1.6 goals on average in that situation (they lost in overtime against the Sharks on Saturday). I'm more confident in backing them given they're coming off a one-goal loss in general, noting that they've gone 20-7 in that spot over the last 2+ seasons, outscoring opponents by an average of 1.3 goals along the way. The home team has taken the last four meetings in this series. You would have go to back to December of 2019 to find the last time Dallas skated to a win in Winnipeg. Take Winnipeg (10*). |
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11-02-21 | Red Wings v. Canadiens UNDER 5.5 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 31 h 47 m | Show |
NHL Atlantic Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Montreal at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. Both of these struggling teams are coming off high-scoring affairs but I look for a different story to unfold on Tuesday night in Montreal. The Red Wings fell short in Toronto on Saturday night, dropping a 5-4 loss against the Maple Leafs. Note that the 'under' is 13-3 with the Red Wings playing on the road after scoring four goals or more in their last game over the last season-plus resulting in an average total of 5.0 goals. We've seen Detroit score four goals or more on three previous occasions this season and in all three cases, it followed that performance with an 'under' result. The Canadiens are coming off a 4-2 loss in Anaheim on Sunday. The 'under' is 9-2 with the Habs playing at home off consecutive 'over' results going back to last season, as is the case here, producing an average total of 4.5 goals in that spot. Take the under (10*). |
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11-01-21 | Senators v. Blackhawks -120 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
NHL Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Chicago over Ottawa at 8:05 pm et on Monday. The Blackhawks are still looking for their first victory nearly a month into the season and with controversy swirling around the franchise, they're in desperate need of something positive at this point. The good news is, they've been playing a little better. Chicago has been right there in two of its last three games, suffering an overtime loss at home against the Maple Leafs and a 1-0 setback in St. Louis around an ugly performance in Carolina. While this is no time for excuses, there's no denying the 'Hawks have faced an extremely tough schedule to this point. This game against the Senators gives them a good opportunity to get something going with five of their next six games coming on home ice. Ottawa is coming off a win in Dallas on Friday night. I'm not sure being idle for the entire weekend was the best thing for a Sens team that is looking to build some positive momentum having won only three out of seven games so far this season. Note that Ottawa has dropped six straight meetings against Chicago, with its last victory in this series coming way back in 2016. After scoring nine goals in their last two games and coming off an effort that saw them allow just a single goal in Dallas, I can't help but feel a letdown is in order for the Sens here. Note that they've allowed 4.0 goals have been outscored by 0.8 goals on average when playing on the road after losing two of their last three games over the last 2+ seasons, as is the case here (19-game sample size). Take Chicago (10*). |
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10-29-21 | Blackhawks v. Hurricanes OVER 6 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 102 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
NHL Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Carolina at 7:05 pm et on Friday. I certainly don't expect a distracted Blackhawks team to clamp down defensively in this one as they check in having yet to win a game in seven tries this season, allowing a whopping 4.3 goals per game along the way. We do find the Hurricanes in a spot where they have been vulnerable recently, however, noting that they've allowed 3.5 goals on average the last six times they've come off consecutive home wins by two goals or more, as is the case here. On the flip side of that, Carolina averages 4.2 goals when playing at home after allowing two goals or less in consecutive games over the last 2+ seasons. The Canes are likely to be up against Blackhawks goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury in this one and he's mired in one of the worst stretches of his entire career. Fleury owns an ugly .839 save percentage in four games this season. Those four games have totaled 6, 7, 5 and 9 goals. Carolina, meanwhile, is likely to give Antti Raanta his first start of the season. That's certainly worth pointing out when you consider how well Frederik Andersen has performed, recording a .956 save percentage while taking the net in all six games to date (the 'under' has gone 4-2 in those contests). The Blackhawks were a bad team last year as well, but still managed to score 10 goals in four games played here in Carolina (at least two in all four contests). Take the over (10*). |
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10-28-21 | Avalanche -115 v. Blues | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
NHL Central Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Colorado over St. Louis at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. We're taking a bit of a leap of faith with the Avalanche here as there's no question the Blues have been the superior team through the first couple of weeks of the season. In fact, St. Louis has already skated to a 5-3 win over Colorado, on the road no less. Apart from that victory, the Blues haven't exactly faced the toughest slate of opponents, however. After the game in Colorado they traveled to Arizona to face a Coyotes team that is still winless on the season. Next came a stop in Las Vegas, where they took on a Golden Knights squad missing two of its best players in Mark Stone and Max Pacioretty. Most recently, the Blues hosted a two-game home set against the Kings, who are expected to be one of the Western Conference's weakest teams. You get the picture. The Avs on the other hand have had no gimmes, perhaps other than a season-opening win over the hapless Blackhawks. Their three previous road games came against the Capitals, Panthers and Lightning. They managed to pick up only one victory in those three games and followed that trip with a tough home loss to the Knights two nights ago. Needless to say this is a game the Avs clearly have circled on their calendar (not that I'm a big proponent of backing teams based on motivation alone - every team is motivated). What I will note here is that the Blues are just 8-15 in their last 23 games after scoring 3+ goals in four or more consecutive games over the last 2+ seasons, as is the case here, as they average just 2.6 goals in that spot. These two teams have faced each other 16 times since the start of 2020. Only once over that stretch has St. Louis managed to register consecutive wins. Finally, it's worth mentioning that the Blues will be without one of their leaders for an indefinite period of time as Ryan O'Reilly is in Covid protocol. Take Colorado (10*). |
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10-26-21 | Sharks v. Predators UNDER 6 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 30 h 2 m | Show |
NHL Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between San Jose and Nashville at 8:30 pm et on Tuesday. With both of these teams having seen the 'over' cash in their last two games a high total in Tuesday's matchup may appear warranted at first glance. I'm expecting a different story to unfold, however. While it's been a little while since these two teams last faced each other, the two rosters aren't all that different from what we saw when they squared off in games totaling just three and four goals back in November and December of 2019. Here, we'll note that the 'under' has gone 8-1 with the Sharks playing on the road after scoring three or more goals in consecutive games over the last season-plus, as is the case here, with that spot producing an average total of only 4.0 goals. Likewise, the 'under' has gone 18-7 with the Predators playing at home following a game where seven or more total goals were scored over the last 2+ seasons, resulting in an average total of just 5.1 goals. It's also worth mentioning that the 'under' has gone a perfect 9-0 with the Preds returning home off a road win over the same stretch, with an average total of just 3.8 goals scored. We've seen the Preds tighten things up in similar scheduling situations as well, allowing only 2.1 goals on average when playing for the third time in four nights over the last two seasons. Take the under (10*). |
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10-25-21 | Lightning v. Sabres OVER 6 | Top | 1-5 | Push | 0 | 7 h 54 m | Show |
NHL Atlantic Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Tampa Bay and Buffalo at 7:05 pm et on Monday. Now that it appears Brian Elliott will be in goal for his Lightning debut on Monday night, we'll step in with a play on the 'over'. Tampa Bay is coming off consecutive losses but with this being the first game of a back-to-back set (which concludes on Tuesday in Pittsburgh), Andrei Vasilevskiy is expected to get the night off. The Bolts have now been held to three goals or less in three straight games since scoring seven in a victory over Detroit back on October 14th. Here, I believe they're well-positioned to bust out of their offensive slump. Note that the 'over' is 12-3 the last 15 times the Sabres have come off a road loss by one goal, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 7.3 goals. Interestingly, Buffalo checks in averaging 3.7 goals when coming off an overtime loss over the last 2+ seasons, a is the case here following its 2-1 OT loss in New Jersey on Saturday. You would have to go back four meetings to find the last time a matchup between these two teams produced fewer than seven total goals. The last three times they've met in a game that didn't feature Andrei Vasievskiy between the pipes we saw final scores totaling nine, eight and nine goals. Take the over (10*). |
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10-22-21 | Oilers v. Golden Knights UNDER 6.5 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -119 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
NHL Pacific Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Edmonton and Vegas at 10:05 pm et on Friday. The Oilers have come flying out of the gates this season, scoring 18 goals through four games (19 officially but one goal was a result of earning a shootout win). I don't believe their offensive surge is sustainable, however. Note that Edmonton averages only 2.5 goals when playing on the road after registering a road win by two goals or more, as is the case here following last night's 5-1 win in Arizona. The 'under' has gone 9-2 in that spot over the last year. Meanwhile, the 'under' checks in 7-1 when the Knights play at home after giving up 3+ goals in consecutive games over the same period, resulting in an average total of just 3.7 goals. This has not been a high-scoring series by any means with five of six all-time meetings between these two teams in Vegas staying 'under' the total. Take the under (10*). |
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10-21-21 | Capitals -120 v. Devils | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 30 h 26 m | Show |
NHL Metropolitan Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Washington over New Jersey at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Devils are off to a perfect 2-0 start to the season with wins over the Blackhawks and expansion Kraken. They were dealt a tough blow in Tuesday's victory over Seattle, however, as emerging superstar and former first overall draft pick Jack Hughes appeared to suffer a shoulder injury. It remains to be seen whether he can return on Thursday as of the time of writing. Regardless, I look for New Jersey to fall short in its attempt at a third consecutive victory on Thursday night. Note that the Devils are 0-9 the last nine times they've played at home off consecutive wins, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 2.5 goals in that situation. They're also just 8-23 in their last 29 home games against division opponents, outscored by 0.9 goals on average. As for the Capitals, they've been a solid positive momentum play, averaging 3.5 goals and outscoring opponents by 0.6 goals on average after scoring four or more goals in their last game over the last two-plus seasons, as is the case here off Tuesday's 6-3 win over the Avalanche. The Caps have owned this series in recent years, winning 10 of the last 12 meetings over the last three seasons, including a 5-1 mark here in Newark. Take Washington (10*). |
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10-20-21 | Blues v. Golden Knights OVER 5.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 27 m | Show |
NHL Western Conference Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between St. Louis and Vegas at 10:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Blues are off to a red hot start this season, scoring 12 goals in recording back-to-back road wins over the Avalanche and Coyotes. Meanwhile, the Golden Knights are coming off a 6-2 drubbing at the hands of the Kings in Los Angeles last time out. That sets them up well here, noting that they average 4.1 goals when coming off a road loss by two goals or more over the last 2+ seasons. I do question whether they can keep the Blues offense at bay, however, noting that St. Louis averages 3.4 goals when coming off a win of any kind over the last 2+ seasons and by all accounts has its best offensive team in years here in 2021-22. While the Knights will be missing two of its top goal scorers in Max Pacioretty and Mark Stone, I believe that will allow their depth to shine through in the short-term. Note that Stone's defensive play might be missed even more than his offensive work. This has been a high-scoring series in recent years with nine of the last 11 meetings going 'over' the total. Last year's three meetings that featured the goaltending matchup of Jordan Binnington vs. Robin Lehner (which is expected tonight) totaled nine, six and seven goals. Take the over (10*). |
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10-19-21 | Blue Jackets v. Red Wings UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
NHL Eastern Conference Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Columbus and Detroit at 7:35 pm et on Tuesday. We saw totals set at '5' in this same matchup down the stretch last season and I fully expect to see that number return in later season tilts between these two. Both are coming off low-scoring affairs. The Blue Jackets prevailed in overtime by a 2-1 score against the expansion Kraken on Saturday while the Red Wings skated to a 3-1 victory over the Canucks. Note that the 'under' has gone 12-3 with the Blue Jackets playing on the road off consecutive home games over the last 2+ seasons, with that situation producing an average total of just 4.9 goals. The 'under' is 9-1 the last 10 times the Jackets have played on the road off a win as they've averaged just 2.2 goals in that spot. Better still, the 'under' is 17-5 the last 22 times Columbus has followed up consecutive victories, as is the case here, good for an average total of only 4.9 goals. The Red Wings check in averaging a woeful 1.8 goals per game when playing at home following a home victory by two goals or more over the last two seasons, with the 'under' cashing all six times that situation has come up. When playing at home after scoring three goals or more in consecutive games over the last three seasons, the Wings have averaged a ridiculous 1.2 goals per contest, with the 'under' also cashing at a perfect 6-0 clip in that spot. While the last two meetings between the Jackets and Wings were high-scoring affairs, the 'under' remains a solid 59-40 (excluding pushes) all-time and 28-20 in games played here in Detroit. Take the under (10*). |
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10-18-21 | Seattle Kraken v. Flyers OVER 6 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
NHL Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Monday. The Kraken opened the season with consecutive high-scoring games - dropping a 4-3 decision in Las Vegas before picking up their first franchise victory by an identical 4-3 score in Nashville. Last time out we saw Seattle involved in a low-scoring affair as it fell 2-1 in overtime in Columbus. Here, I believe the stage is set for the Kraken to get involved in a back-and-forth, high-scoring game against the Flyers. Philadelphia rallied from a 4-2 deficit late in the third period to force overtime against the Canucks on Friday but ultimately fell in a shootout. Flyers goaltender Carter Hart picked up right where he left off last season, struggling mightily between the pipes. It's getting to the point now where it's difficult to envision any sort of 'quick fix' for Hart. The good news is, the Flyers do have plenty of offensive firepower, as we saw in Friday's comeback against the Canucks. Here, I'll note that Philadelphia has allowed a whopping 4.5 goals per game after scoring four goals or more in its previous game over the last two seasons, with that situation producing an average total of 7.0 goals scored. The 'over' has also gone 13-5 the last 18 times the Flyers have played at home with the total set at 6.0 goals (excluding pushes), good for an average total of 7.3 goals scored in that situation. Take the over (10*). |
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10-14-21 | Coyotes v. Blue Jackets -138 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
NHL Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Columbus over Arizona at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Coyotes have the potential to be one of the league's worst teams this season and while the Blue Jackets are by no means a Stanley Cup contender, I do think they'll be in the hunt for the playoffs and could be better than most are projecting if they can overcome a few key losses. I actually like the make-up of this Jackets squad. Cam Atkinson is gone but he was a general disappointment last season. Seth Jones has also moved on but he already had one foot out the door all of last season. Gone is the distraction of former head coach John Tortorella and his feuds with players. It feels like a fresh start for the Jackets and I expect them to get off to a strong start. The Coyotes have gone through some changes, most notably dealing one of their best offensive threats in Conor Garland to Vancouver. This is a team that really lacks an identity at this point and I expect them to be in tough opening the campaign on the road, where Columbus has traditionally found plenty of success. Take Columbus (10*). |
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07-07-21 | Canadiens v. Lightning -224 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
My selection is on Tampa Bay -1.0 goal over Montreal at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. |
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07-05-21 | Lightning v. Canadiens UNDER 5 | Top | 2-3 | Push | 0 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
NHL Stanley Cup Final Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Tampa Bay and Montreal at 8:05 pm et on Monday. We've alternated playing the 'over' and 'under' in the first three games in this series, going a perfect 3-0 along the way. I'll stick with that approach here in Game 4 as I anticipate a different type of affair than we saw in Saturday's wide-open 6-3 Lightning victory. Saturday's game essentially turned on two Tampa Bay goals in the opening four minutes. Were it not for the Lightning building a considerable lead it's unlikely they would have given up three goals, noting that they had allowed a grand total of just two goals through the first two games of the series. The Lightning check in allowing just 2.0 goals per game in the playoffs while the Canadiens have allowed 2.5. Note that the 'under' has gone 9-2 with the Lightning playing on the road after a game where nine or more goals were scored over the last two seasons with that situation producing an average of just 4.4 total goals. We've also seen the 'under' cash at an 8-1 clip with the Lightning looking to close out a series on the road over the last two seasons with an average total of just 4.0 goals in that spot. Meanwhile, the 'under' has gone 9-2 with the Canadiens seeking revenge for a loss where their opponent scored five or more goals this season. That situation has produced an average total of 5.0 goals. The Lightning have certainly looked unstoppable offensively in this series but it's not as if that's been the case from start to finish in these playoffs. They've actually scored three goals or less in 10 of their last 15 games with the 'under' going 8-5-2 over that stretch (10-5-2 over their last 17 games). I was waiting this one out hoping the total might finally move off of 5.0 to 5.5 but it doesn't look like that's going to happen, rightfully so (although that's certainly an option as an alternate total at most books, albeit at a steeper price). Take the under (10*). |
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06-28-21 | Canadiens v. Lightning -195 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 23 h 55 m | Show |
NHL Game of the Month. My selection is on Tampa Bay over Montreal at 8:05 pm et on Monday. We have a pretty good read on the Lightning right now having just gone 6-0-2 (including free) over the course of their seven-game series against the Islanders. Here, I look for them to get off to a positive start as they begin their quest for a second straight Stanley Cup title against the upstart Canadiens. This is by no means a favorable matchup for the Habs. Tampa Bay has absolutely had Montreal's number over the last few seasons, taking seven of the last eight meetings in this series. This will of course be the first matchup between these two teams this season but I expect the Bolts dominance to continue. Note that the Lightning are an incredible 20-3 when coming off a game where they scored one goal or less over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.1 goals. The Canadiens on the other hand are 11-21 after winning four of their last five contests over the last three seasons, outscored by 0.7 goals on average in that situation. For whatever reason, we saw the Golden Knights absolutely wilt over the course of their series with the Habs. It almost seems as if a lopsided 4-1 win in Game 1 may have been their downfall as they seemed to start reading their own press and believing the series was going to be a cakewalk. I don't envision the Bolts experiencing a similar fate here. Home ice doesn't always mean a great deal in the NHL Playoffs, but it has most definitely meant something to the Bolts this season as they've gone 27-10 here in Tampa, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.3 goals. Here in the playoffs they check in giving up just 2.1 goals per game. The Habs have proven to be the very definition of a 'tough out' and while I certainly don't expect them to get walked all over in this series, I do think they're going to have a very difficult time gaining the upper hand at any point against an ultra-talented and obviously experienced Lightning that has its sights set on another Stanley Cup championship. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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06-23-21 | Lightning v. Islanders UNDER 5 | Top | 2-3 | Push | 0 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
NHL Elimination Game Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Tampa Bay and New York at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Lightning rolled to an 8-0 victory in Game 5 of this series on Monday (we won with Tampa Bay in that game). I'm expecting a much lower-scoring affair on Wednesday as the scene shifts back to Long Island for Game 6. The Isles are of course known for their defensive play under head coach Barry Trotz and that's what makes the lopsided nature of Game 5 so stunning. Back at home, the Isles should respond favorably as they've allowed just 2.1 goals per game at Nassau Coliseum this season. Note that the Lightning have also been a weaker offensive team on the road this season, where they average 2.9 goals per game, well below their season average of 3.3 goals per contest. The 'under' has actually gone 7-1 the last eight times the Lightning have played on the road looking to close out a playoff series with those games averaging just 4.2 total goals. The 'under' is also 9-1 with Tampa Bay playing on the road off a home win this season with those contests totaling an average of just 4.3 goals. Meanwhile, the Islanders have posted a 1-8 o/u record when revenging a loss by three goals or more this season with those games totaling an average of only 3.6 goals. Better still, the 'under' is a perfect 8-0 with the Isles coming off a shutout loss on the road over the last two seasons with that situation producing a staggeringly-low 2.7 total goals on average. We've yet to see consecutive games go 'over' the total in this series and I don't see it happening here either. Take the under (10*). |
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06-19-21 | Lightning v. Islanders OVER 5 | Top | 2-3 | Push | 0 | 14 h 31 m | Show |
NHL Stanley Cup Semis Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Tampa Bay and New York at 8:05 pm et on Saturday. We won with the 'under' in Game 3 of this series two nights ago but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'over' on Saturday as the Islanders look to answer back following consecutive losses. New York has to realize at this point that it's not going to win this series by sitting back on its heels. The Isles have now registered less than 30 shots in consecutive games. When they've been at their best in these playoffs they've been playing with an attacking mindset, as evidenced by their lone win in this series, a 2-1 victory in Game 1 where they fired 31 shots on goal. Note that the 'over' is 8-2 with the Isles playing at home after a game where three or less total goals were scored this season, as is the case here. That situation has produced a whopping 7.2 goals on average this season. The 'over' is also 22-12 with the Isles revenging a one-goal loss against an opponent over the last two seasons with an average total of 6.4 goals scored in that spot. Meanwhile, the Lightning have posted a 13-6 o/u record when playing consecutive road games this season with that situation producing 6.4 total goals on average. Over the last two seasons, Lightning games following an 'under' result have averaged 6.0 total goals. The Lightning aren't likely to sit back and play conservatively just because they've grabbed a 2-1 series lead. I look for both teams to find more offensive success than we saw in a tightly-contested Game 3. We'll take advantage of the '5' being offered tonight. Take the over (10*). |
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06-16-21 | Canadiens +1.5 v. Golden Knights | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 34 h 51 m | Show |
NHL Playoff Puck-Line Game of the Year. My selection is on Montreal +1.5 goals over Vegas at 9:05 pm et on Wednesday. Credit the Habs for at least staying in the game in the opener of this series on Monday night. They could have easily folded the tent after falling behind 2-0 early in the second period but answered back with a goal to cut the lead in half. They could have also let the game get out of hand after a quick response from Vegas to make it 3-1 but instead they battled in the third period, ultimately outshooting the Knights 12-9 in the final frame and falling by a 4-1 score. The Canadiens are very much a team with 'nothing to lose' here in the Stanley Cup semi-final round. Few expected them to get out of the first round let alone make it out of the North Division. Facing the Knights is a tall task and I certainly don't expect them to win this series. However, I do think they're well-positioned to give Vegas a run in Game 2 on Wednesday night. Note that Montreal is 11-5 after scoring a goal or less in its last game this season, averaging 3.1 goals per game and outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 0.7 goals in that spot. We've also seen the Habs allow just 2.4 goals per game and outscore opponents by an average margin of 0.4 goals when revenging a loss by four goals or more over the last two seasons, with that situation coming up 21 times previously. The Knights are just 4-10 when coming off consecutive home wins by two goals or more in franchise history, allowing 3.5 goals per game and outscored by an average margin of 0.6 goals in that spot. Vegas is a terrific team and certainly has a clear path to a Stanley Cup title at this point. However, I don't think it will go completely untested in this series. Look for the Habs to keep things close at the very least in Game 2 on Wednesday night. Take Montreal +1.5 goals (10*). |
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06-15-21 | Islanders v. Lightning -182 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 31 h 22 m | Show |
NHL Stanley Cup Semi-Final Game of the Year. My selection is on Tampa Bay over New York at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Lightning got off to a typically sluggish start in Game 1 of this series on Sunday, not all that surprising given they had been idle for four full days after finishing off the Hurricanes in five games. They did ultimately come alive in the latter stages of that contest, but it was too little, too late in a 2-1 loss. Here, I look for Tampa Bay to bounce back on home ice, where they've gone 24-10, outscoring opponents by 1.2 goals on average this season. Note that the Bolts are an incredible 19-3 after scoring one goal or less in their last game over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.1 goals in that spot. They're also a rock solid 58-22 when coming off a loss over the last three seasons. The Islanders have now won four games in a row - their longest winning streak since April 1st to 8th. On that occasion, they failed to make it five straight victories, falling by a 4-1 score at home against the Rangers. New York is a long-term loser when playing on the road after winning three or more games in a row, going 28-57 in their last 85 opportunities. Note that the Isles are averaging just 2.1 goals per game when playing on the road off a win this season. Meanwhile, the Lightning have allowed just 1.9 goals per game when revenging a loss where they scored one goal or less this season, as is the case here. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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06-13-21 | Islanders v. Lightning UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 18 h 10 m | Show |
NHL on NBC Playoff Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Tampa Bay at 3:05 pm et on Sunday. We cashed with the 'over' on three separate occasions during the Islanders series win over the Bruins last round. Here, I'll switch gears and back the 'under' as the Isles open their Stanley Cup semi-final series against the Lightning in Tampa. Note that the 'under' has gone 22-10-2 in all Islanders road games this season with those contests totaling an average of just 4.8 goals. The 'under' has gone 9-2 with the Isles coming off consecutive 'over' results this season, with that situation producing an average total of just 3.7 goals. The 'under' is also 12-2 with the Lightning coming off a shutout victory over the last three seasons, with those games totaling an average of only 4.7 goals. The Isles carried an attacking mindset against the Bruins, who were missing a key piece on defense in Brandon Carlo, and who had an injured goaltender in Tuukka Rask. Here, I think we'll see the Isles employ a different gameplan as they look to muck things up and slow down the explosive Lightning offense. While these two teams haven't met this season, six of their last nine matchups have stayed 'under' the total. Take the under (10*). |
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06-10-21 | Avalanche v. Golden Knights UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -113 | 14 h 8 m | Show |
NHL West Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and Vegas at 9:05 pm et on Thursday. Unlike last night, when I suggested the Islanders would come out with an attacking mindset with a chance to eliminate the Bruins on home ice, here I look for the Golden Knights to focus on staying fundamentally-sound defensively as they attempt to close out the Avalanche in Game 6. The Knights may be known for their offense but they've actually been very stout defensively here at home, where they allow just 2.1 goals per game this season. This will be the 14th meeting between these two teams this season with the 'under' having cashed at a 9-4 clip. Note that the 'under' has gone 21-11 with the Avs playing on the road revenging a loss against an opponent over the last two seasons. Better still, the 'under' is 9-2 with the Avs playing on the road off a one-goal loss over the last two seasons, 8-1 after they give up three goals or more in consecutive games this season and a perfect 6-0 after they've been held to two goals or less in consecutive contests this season. I don't see things suddenly opening up in this 'elimination game' on Thursday night. Take the under (10*). |
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06-09-21 | Bruins v. Islanders OVER 5 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
NHL East Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and New York at 7:35 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the 'over' in Game 5 of this series on Monday night - one of our easiest winning tickets of the entire playoffs. While my first instinct was to give a hard look at the 'under' in Game 6, I just can't get there given the state of the Bruins. Goaltender Tuukka Rask was of course lifted from Game 5 due to an undisclosed injury. Maybe he'll be able to go on Wednesday, but even if he can, he hasn't shown the ability to steal a game in these playoffs. Top defenseman Brandon Carlo is also sidelined, an absolute anchor defensively in the B's own end of the rink. The Islanders are a supremely confident squad right now and should keep an attacking mindset with a chance to eliminate the favored Bruins on home ice in Game 6, avoiding a Game 7 back in Boston. Remember, last round the Isles overwhelmed the Penguins, scoring five goals in a series-clinching Game 6 victory here at the Nassau Coliseum. The Isles know they can't stop the Bruins 'Perfection Line' with Pastrnak, Marchand and Bergeron generating a ton of scoring chances in this series, with a hand in the majority of the Bruins goals. Note that the Isles are averaging an impressive 3.5 goals per game on home ice this season. Meanwhile, the Bruins have averaged 4.0 goals per game when coming off two or more straight losses this season. Take the over (10*). |
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06-08-21 | Golden Knights v. Avalanche -144 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -144 | 24 h 52 m | Show |
NHL West Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Colorado over Vegas at 9:05 pm et on Tuesday. The home team has dominated this series, going a perfect 4-0 so far and I look for that trend to continue on Tuesday night. After all, the Avs have gone an incredible 25-6 on home ice this season, outscoring the opposition by an average of 2.2 goals per contest. Note that Colorado is a perfect 10-0 when at home revenging a loss against an opponent this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 3.4 goals (!). The Avs are also 24-8 when revenging a loss against an opponent by two goals or more over the last two seasons and 25-12 when revenging a loss against an opponent in which they scored one goal or less over the last three seasons. There aren't many situations where the Golden Knights own a losing record in recent years but here's one - they're just 11-16 when coming off a win by four goals or more over the last three seasons. This will be the 13th meeting between these two teams this season and the Knights have yet to win three consecutive matchups with the Avs. Look for that to hold true on Tuesday. Take Colorado (10*). |
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06-07-21 | Islanders v. Bruins -179 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -179 | 21 h 23 m | Show |
NHL East Division Playoff Game of the Year. My selection is on Boston over New York at 6:35 pm et on Monday. New York evened up this series with a convincing 4-1 victory at a raucous Nassau Coliseum on Saturday. Now I look for the Bruins to take back control of the series as the scene shifts back to Boston on Monday. Note that Boston is 13-1 when playing at home after scoring one goal or less in their last game over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.8 goals in that situation. Meanwhile, the Islanders average a miserable 1.9 goals per game when on the road after a home win against a division opponent over the last two seasons, outscored by an average margin of 0.5 goals in that spot. The Bruins are 20-11 on home ice this season where they average an impressive 3.4 goals per game. Look for the Isles to once again have a tough time keeping pace on Monday night. Take Boston (10*). |
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06-06-21 | Jets v. Canadiens UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -135 | 34 h 5 m | Show |
NHL North Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Winnipeg and Montreal at 6:05 pm et on Sunday. While the first game in this series was high-scoring, both teams settled into a defensive affair in Friday's 1-0 Canadiens victory. I don't think either team believes it needs to score more than 2-3 goals to secure victories in this series and for Winnipeg this is obviously as close to a must-win without being exactly that as it gets. Carey Price is locked in right now and it seems that whenever the Jets go down a key scorer up front (ie. Nik Ehlers or Blake Wheeler during the regular season and now Mark Scheifele) its secondary options struggle to pick up the slack. The Jets were never really threatened in their own end in Game 2 apart from Tyler Toffoli's short-handed marker, which was a pretty bad goal for Connor Hellebuyck to allow in a critical situation down a game in this series. I do think Hellebuyck is capable of stealing a game for the Jets though, even if their offense fails to show up once again. With all of that being said, the days of 5.5's may be numbered in this series. I'm banking on another relatively low-scoring affair on Sunday in Montreal. Take the under (10*). |
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06-04-21 | Canadiens v. Jets -114 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -114 | 14 h 36 m | Show |
NHL Second Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Winnipeg over Montreal at 7:35 pm et on Friday. One would think the Jets would be at a major disadvantage here, not only down 1-0 in the series but now also without one of their best players in Mark Scheifele after his bone-headed decision to charge Jake Evans for a vicious hit in the final minute of Game 1. I actually feel his absence could be galvanizing in nature for this Jets squad that has faced plenty of adversity this season, while serving as more of a distraction for the Canadiens, who should be focused on trying to take a 2-0 stranglehold on this series rather than on exacting revenge for Scheifele's hit. Regardless, the Habs are set up poorly here having gone 1-7 after winning three straight games over the last two seasons, outscored by 1.6 goals on average in that situation. In a bit of a quirky trend, they're also a miserable 11-26 when playing their third straight road game over the last two seasons, allowing 3.3 goals per game in that spot. Finally, it's worth noting that they're 4-12 after consecutive wins by two or more goals over the last three seasons, giving up an average of 3.7 goals in that situation. For their part, the Jets are 11-4 when revenging a loss against an opponent this season and better still, 28-13 when revenging a loss where their opponent scored four or more goals over the last two seasons, averaging 3.2 goals per game in that spot. They've proven to be a terrific bounce-back team, going 24-12 following a loss to a division opponent over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by 0.8 goals on average. This will be the 11th meeting between these two teams this season and Montreal has yet to record three consecutive victories. I don't see it happening tonight either. Take Winnipeg (10*). |
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06-03-21 | Hurricanes v. Lightning OVER 5.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 38 m | Show |
NHL Central Division Round Two Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Carolina and Tampa Bay at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. If the Hurricanes are going to have any chance at getting back in this series they're going to need to break through against Lightning goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy. With the scene shifting to Tampa for Game 3 on Thursday night, I expect them to do just that. Note that the last four times the Lightning have played after posting consecutive road victories, they've gone on to allow a whopping 6.0 goals per game with those contests totaling an average of 9.3 goals. We're talking about a small sample size, but the point is still worth making. Also note that the 'over' has gone 17-7 the last 24 times the Lightning have come off a one-goal victory over a division opponent, with those games totaling an average of 6.8 goals. Carolina's road games have been considerably higher-scoring than its home games this season, averaging a total of 6.0 goals. Lightning home games have averaged an identical 6.0 goals as well. I'll also point to the fact that the 'over' has gone 27-17 with the Canes playing on the road with a total of 5.5 under head coach Rod Brind'Amour, with those contests totaling an average of 6.1 goals. We've now seen four consecutive 'under' results in games between these two teams. I believe both have too much offensive firepower for that trend to continue much longer. Take the over (10*). |
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05-31-21 | Islanders v. Bruins OVER 5 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
NHL East Division Playoff Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Boston at 7:35 pm et on Monday. We're only one game into this series but as good as a defensive team as they are, I think the chances of the Islanders slowing down the Bruins 'Perfection Line' of Marchand, Bergeron and Pastrnak are slim to none. While David Pastrnak managed a hat trick in Game 1, he easily could have had a couple more goals as well. When the dust settled, the Bruins shook off some early rust and cruised to a 5-2 series-opening victory. New York generally carries a defensive mindset under head coach Barry Trotz but here I think it knows it will have to turn up the offensive volume in order to stay in this series. It's worth noting that the Isles have managed to score at least four goals against the Bruins on three different occasions this season. While they faced a different challenge in round one, they scored four goals in both games where they were coming off a loss, as is the case here. Note that the Isles have allowed 3.4 goals per game when revenging a road loss against an opponent this season with those contests totaling an average of 6.1 goals. The Bruins have been a terrific positive momentum play here at home, averaging 3.8 goals per game after winning two or more games in a row over the last three seasons, with those contests totaling an average of 6.1 goals. Take the over (10*). |
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05-27-21 | Canadiens +1.5 v. Maple Leafs | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
NHL First Round Puck-Line Game of the Year. My selection is on Montreal +1.5 goals over Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Leafs have cruised to three straight victories in this series to push the Habs to the brink of elimination but I don't expect Montreal to go down without a fight on Thursday. Note that Montreal is an incredible 21-8 when coming off a home loss by two goals or more over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by 0.8 goals on average in that situation. They're also 13-6 when playing on the road after scoring two goals or less in consecutive games over that same stretch, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 0.5 goals. Meanwhile, the Leafs are just 11-14 after winning three or more consecutive games over the last two seasons. They're also 10-14 when playing their third game in four nights over that stretch, outscored by 0.2 goals on average in that spot. Finally, I'll point out that the Habs have been in a situation where they've been seeking revenge against an opponent for a loss by three or more goals on 11 occasions this season and in that situation they've allowed just 2.1 goals per game while outscoring the opposition by an average of 0.4 goals. Take Montreal +1.5 goals (10*). |
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05-26-21 | Penguins +100 v. Islanders | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
NHL First Round Elimination Game of the Year. My selection is on Pittsburgh over New York at 6:35 pm et on Wednesday. Off a 50-shot barrage in a losing effort on Monday I look for the Penguins to finally capitalize on their opportunities and force a seventh and deciding game in this series with a victory in Uniondale on Wednesday. Note that Pittsburgh checks in a perfect 8-0 when coming off consecutive losses against division opponents over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 2.4 goals in that spot. The Pens are also an incredible 23-11 after giving up three goals or more in consecutive games over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 1.1 goals on average in that situation. They obviously come into this game with double-revenge off consecutive losses and I'll point to the fact that they've gone 18-5 when revenging a loss against an opponent this season, outscoring the opposition by 1.1 goals on average in that spot. While the Isles do hold a 7-5 edge against the Pens here on Long Island over the last three seasons, three of those five Pittsburgh victories have come this season. This has had the feel of a seven-game series all the way and I expect it to play out accordingly on Wednesday. Take Pittsburgh (10*). |
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05-25-21 | Predators v. Hurricanes UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
NHL Revenge Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Nashville and Carolina at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. This has turned out to be a very high-scoring series with three of the four games totaling seven goals or more. I expect things to tighten up considerably now that the series is all knotted at two games apiece, however. Note that the 'under' is a perfect 6-0 with the Hurricanes playing at home after losing two of their last three games this season with that situation producing an average total of just 3.7 goals. The 'under' is also 10-2 with the Hurricanes at home off a one-goal loss against a division opponent over the last three seasons, resulting in an average total of just 4.3 goals. For the Preds part, the 'under' has gone 11-3 when they play on the road after giving up three goals or more in three straight games over the last two seasons, with that spot producing an average total of just 4.9 goals. Despite the high-scoring nature of this playoff series, the 'under' remains 8-6 in the last 14 meetings in this series while five of the last seven matchups here in Raleigh have also gone 'under' the total. Take the under (10*). |
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05-24-21 | Islanders v. Penguins -135 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -135 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
NHL East Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Pittsburgh over New York at 7:05 pm et on Monday. The Penguins took one on the chin on Saturday afternoon in Uniondale, suffering a lopsided 4-1 defeat to even the series up at two games apiece. Here, I look for Pittsburgh to answer back on home ice where it has gone 23-7 this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 2.4 goals. Note that Pittsburgh checks in 9-1 when revenging a road loss by two goals or more this season, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 2.3 goals in that spot. The Pens are also an incredible 16-2 at home off a loss over the last two seasons, holding a 1.8-goal scoring edge in that situation. This has been an incredibly tightly-contested series in recent years so it's no surprise at all that it's all tied up through four games. However, I do think home ice means something at this stage of the series and like the Pens to defend it here. Take Pittsburgh (10*). |
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05-22-21 | Canadiens v. Maple Leafs -167 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
NHL Blowout Game of the Month. My selection is on Toronto over Montreal at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. Credit the Canadiens for staging the Game 1 upset two nights ago, delivering a 2-1 victory despite getting outshot by a 36-30 margin. Even after losing John Tavares to a scary concussion, the Leafs shouldn't be down on themselves heading into Game 2 on Saturday night. They're still 18-11 at home this season and 6-3 in their last nine meetings with the Canadiens here in Toronto. They've been tremendous when revenging a home loss against an opponent this season, going 10-1 while outscoring the opposition by 1.3 goals on average. While the Leafs aren't necessarily known for their ability to overcome adversity, they're actually an impressive 23-11 the last 37 times they've been trailing a playoff series. The Canadiens check in 3-11 off a one-goal win over a division opponent over the last two seasons and 8-16 off a victory this season. Look for the Leafs to answer back in a big way on Saturday. Take Toronto (10*). |
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05-21-21 | Avalanche v. Blues +1.5 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -123 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
NHL Puck-Line Game of the Week. My selection is on St. Louis +1.5 goals over Colorado at 9:35 pm et on Friday. This series looks like it's over by all accounts after consecutive lopsided victories by the Avs but with the scene shifting to St. Louis for Game 3 I do look for the Blues to put up a fight. Note that Colorado is just 21-30 when playing on the road after scoring four goals or more in its last game over the last three seasons. Meanwhile, St. Louis checks in 11-2 when playing at home off consecutive losses by three goals or more, outscoring the opposition by 1.5 goals on average in that situation. The Blues have more than held their own here at home against the Avalanche over the last three seasons, taking six of the last eight meetings. We'll grab the insurance goal with St. Louis here as the price warrants such a play, noting the Avs managed just one win by more than a single goal in four tries here in St. Louis this season. Take St. Louis +1.5 goals (10*). |
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05-21-21 | Jets v. Oilers -156 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -156 | 32 h 12 m | Show |
NHL First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Edmonton over Winnipeg at 9:05 pm et on Friday. This one sets up nicely for the Oilers as they look to bounce back following a disappointing 4-1 loss in Wednesday's series-opener. The Jets limped down the stretch losing nine of their final 12 regular season games including three against these same Oilers but perhaps that played a role in Edmonton taking a win for granted in Game 1. In fact, prior to Wednesday's contest, the Oilers had won six straight meetings with the Jets. Now it's the Oilers with all of the motivation as they look to even up the series before it shifts to Winnipeg for the next two games. Note that the Jets check in a miserable 3-13 after scoring three goals or more in three consecutive games over the last two seasons, outscored by an average margin of 1.2 goals in that spot. They're also just 6-17 when coming off a road victory by three goals or more over the last three seasons, outscored by 1.2 goals per game in that situation as well. Meanwhile, the Oilers check in 15-4 when coming off two or more consecutive losses over the last two seasons, averaging 3.8 goals per game while outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 0.9 goals in that spot. They're 7-1 when coming off consecutive losses by two or more goals over the same stretch, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.0 goal. Give the Jets all the credit in the world for stealing Game 1 as they were actually outshot by a fairly wide margin but they're a gritty road team, having gone 18-11 away from home this season, and found a way to get the 'W'. However, now that they've accomplished what was likely their goal of earning at least a split in the first two games in Edmonton, look for the Oilers to answer back with a convincing victory of their own on Friday. Take Edmonton (10*). |
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05-19-21 | Predators v. Hurricanes UNDER 5.5 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
NHL Central Division First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Nashville and Carolina at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a relatively high-scoring game to open this series on Monday night as the Hurricanes cruised to a 5-2 victory. The Predators know they don't have the offensive firepower to keep pace in that type of high-scoring environment, however. Keep in mind, they average just 2.6 goals per game on the road this season while the Hurricanes allow only 2.1 goals per game on home ice. We should see a better defensive effort from the Preds here as they've given up just 2.6 goals per game when coming off a loss by three goals or more this season. Meanwhile, the 'Canes have posted an 8-19 o/u record the last 27 times they've been leading a playoff series, with those contests totaling an average of just 4.5 goals. We've also seen the 'under' go an incredible 13-1 when Carolina plays at home after losing two of its last three games over the last two seasons, as is the case here, with those games totaling an average of only 4.4 goals. Finally, note that the 'under' is 4-2 in the last six meetings between these two teams here in Raleigh and 7-4 in their last 11 matchups overall. Take the under (10*). |
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05-18-21 | Lightning v. Panthers +119 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 51 m | Show |
NHL First Round Revenge Game of the Year. My selection is on Florida over Tampa Bay at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Lightning got past the Panthers on a late goal from Brayden Point in Sunday's thrilling series-opener between these in-state rivals. I look for Florida to answer back with a victory on Tuesday night. The Panthers know just how difficult it would be to take four of the next five games should they fall into an 0-2 series hole on Tuesday. After all, Tampa Bay has taken 11 of the last 17 meetings in this series. The Panthers should remain confident here, however, noting that they've held their own against the Bolts this season, going 5-4 in nine meetings. With a win here on Tuesday, the Panthers would even up the series here in Sunrise over the last three seasons at five wins apiece. Note that Tampa Bay checks into this game having gone 0-4 when playing on the road off a one-goal road victory this season, outscored by an average margin of 1.8 goals while allowing 4.8 goals per game in that situation. In fact, the Lightning are just 19-23 when coming off a one-goal win regardless of the location over the last two seasons. Meanwhile, the Panthers have gone 14-3 after giving up four goals or more in their last game this season, outscoring opponents by 1.2 goals on average in that spot. They also check in a perfect 8-0 this season after a game where both teams scored at least four goals, as is the case here, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.9 goals while averaging 4.3 goals per game in that situation. At 20-9 on home ice this season, outscoring opponents by 1.0 goal per game, I look for the Panthers to come up with a big effort to even this series on Tuesday night. Take Florida (10*). |
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05-17-21 | Predators v. Hurricanes -179 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
NHL Central Division First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Carolina over Nashville at 8:05 pm et on Monday. Nashville went on an incredible run from the middle of March on to earn a playoff spot but what is its reward? A date with the first-place Hurricanes in the opening round. As I noted in my playoff preview article, home ice is going to mean something in this series as the Hurricanes check in 20-8 in Raleigh this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.3 goals. While Nashville went 18-10 on home ice during the regular season, it was just 13-15 on the road, allowing 3.1 goals per game in the process. The Preds have had little recent success here in Raleigh, dropping five of the last six meetings in this series. While Nashville did close out the regular season with consecutive victories over the Canes, those both came at home, and Carolina had essentially already checked out on the regular season. Note that Nashville is now in a poor position, having gone 10-22 when coming off consecutive wins over the last two seasons, outscored by 0.7 goals on average in that spot. Here, I expect to see a much different Canes squad, one that will be eager to get this postseason off to a positive start after such a disappointing early exit at the hands of the Bruins last year. While we're being asked to lay a fairly steep price to back Carolina here, I believe it could be even higher. Take Carolina (10*). |
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05-16-21 | Wild v. Golden Knights OVER 5.5 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
NHL West Division First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Vegas at 3 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'under' in the most recent meeting between these two teams but I'll go the other way and back the 'over' in this spot. While the Golden Knights are heavily favored to win this series I don't expect the Wild to back down one bit as the series opens in Las Vegas on Sunday afternoon. Note that Minnesota has actually taken four of the last seven meetings here at T-Mobile Arena and checks in a perfect 7-0, averaging 3.9 goals per game when coming off consecutive losses this season, as is the case here. The 'over' has gone 7-1 with the Wild revenging a home loss against an opponent this season, with that situation producing an average total of 7.3 goals. Interestingly, we've also seen the 'over' go 13-3 with the Knights playing just their second game in the last five days over the last two seasons, with an average total of 7.4 goals in that spot. The Knights have of course been dominant at home this season, skating to a 21-7 record while averaging 3.5 goals per game with the 'over' cashing at a 16-12 clip. After a very brief scoring lull in early April, the Knights went on a tear down the stretch, scoring four goals or more in 11 of their final 16 regular season games. Likewise, the Wild also picked up the pace offensively down the stretch, producing four goals or more in 10 of their last 14 contests. Take the over (10*). |
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05-12-21 | Kings v. Avalanche UNDER 5.5 | Top | 0-6 | Loss | -104 | 15 h 52 m | Show |
NHL West Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Colorado at 9:05 pm et on Wednesday. The 'under' has ruled this series, cashing in four of the last five meetings in Colorado and nine of the last 12 matchups between these two teams overall. The Avs are absolutely locked in right now as they battle for top spot in the West Division - and the entire league. They've allowed two goals or less in three straight games, including consecutive 3-2 victories over the Kings in Los Angeles last week. Note that Colorado is allowing just 2.0 goals per game on home ice this season, where it has gone 19-6. The Kings check in having scored two goals or less in six of their last eight games. The 'under' has cashed in eight of their last 10 contests. Note that the 'under' has gone 32-17 the last 49 times the Kings have played on the road after losing three of their last four games, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of just 5.2 goals. We've also seen the 'under' go 25-12 with the Kings heading on the road following two or more straight home games over the last two seasons, with that spot resulting in an average total of only 5.0 goals. Meanwhile, the Avs have given up just 2.2 goals per game after winning three of their last four games this season, with the 'under' going 15-7 in that spot with an average total of just 5.1 goals. Colorado has also posted a 10-22 o/u record when playing at home off a one-goal win over the last two seasons. As much as the Kings would like to play spoiler here, they've managed to score just one goal in two previous games in Colorado this season. Take the under (10*). |
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05-12-21 | Oilers v. Canadiens UNDER 6 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -113 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
North Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Edmonton and Montreal at 5:05 pm et on Wednesday. Monday's matchup between these two teams found its way 'over' the total as the Oilers prevailed 4-3 in overtime. That marked Edmonton's third straight 'over' result which is worth mentioning as it hasn't posted more than three consecutive 'overs' since a five-game streak back in the last week of January. While the Oilers are known for their offense, they can play some defense as well, having allowed three goals or less in eight of their last nine games overall. The Canadiens have scored three goals or less in six straight and 10 of their last 11 games overall and average just 2.8 goals per game on home ice this season. While they would certainly like to right the ship here off of four consecutive losses, that hasn't been a favorable spot for them in recent years, averaging just 2.5 goals per game while going 4-10 in that situation over the last two seasons. Note that the 'under' has gone a perfect 6-0 with the Oilers playing on the road after allowing three goals or more in three straight games over the last two seasons, with that situation totaling an average of just 4.5 goals. We've also seen the 'under' cash at an 11-3 clip with Edmonton playing on the road after scoring three goals or more in consecutive games this season, with an average total of just 4.9 goals in that spot. For Montreal's part, it has posted a 9-17 o/u record when revenging a same-season loss against an opponent this season with that situation producing an average total of 5.4 goals. The Habs have done a fairly solid job containing the Oilers offense in eight previous meetings this season, allowing just 2.3 goals per game. The 'under' has gone 4-2 in the last six meetings in Montreal and 7-5 in the last 12 matchups between these two teams overall. Take the under (10*). |
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05-11-21 | Canucks v. Jets OVER 5.5 | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -117 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
NHL Revenge Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Vancouver and Winnipeg at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. Last night's meeting between these two teams got off to a fast start with three goals in the first period but fizzled from there as Canucks goaltender Thatcher Demko stood on his head turning aside 39 of 40 shots in a 3-1 Vancouver victory. The Jets are struggling mightily right now but I do expect them to display some push-back here tonight and they should catch a break with Braden Holtby likely to get the nod in goal for Vancouver (the Canucks have yet to give a goaltender consecutive starts in a back-to-back spot this season). Of course, the veteran Holtby has struggled this season with a GAA well north of three and a save percentage under .900. We've seen the Canucks score three goals or more in three straight games and eight of 13 contests since returning to the ice following a long Covid-induced layoff last month. The 'over' checks in 18-8 with the Jets coming off a home loss against a division opponent over the last three seasons, with those contests totaling an average of 6.7 goals. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 21-11 with the Canucks following a game where four total goals or less were scored, with that spot producing an average total of 6.6 goals. We've seen the Canucks run out of gas defensively on long road trips in recent years, allowing 4.0 goals per game when playing a fourth consecutive road game over the last two seasons, with that situation producing 6.5 total goals on average. While the 'under' has cashed in six of the last seven meetings in this series, it's certainly worth noting that we've seen a number of 6's and 6.5's over that stretch. We're dealing with a more reasonable total here tonight. Take the over (10*). |
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05-10-21 | Stars -130 v. Blackhawks | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
NHL Central Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Dallas over Chicago at 8:05 pm et on Monday. The Blackhawks got the better of the Stars in a somewhat meaningless affair last night in Chicago but it's certainly worth noting that Dallas didn't quit, outshooting the Blackhawks by a wide margin of 39-25. I look for the Stars to wrap up an otherwise disappointing season with a victory on Monday night. It's easy to forget that the Stars reached the Stanley Cup Final in the Edmonton bubble last fall. While the 2021 campaign has certainly not gone their way, the same could be said for the Blackhawks. Here, Dallas is set up well, having gone 20-13 when revenging a loss where their opponent scored four goals or more over the last three seasons, allowing just 2.5 goals per game in that situation. The Blackhawks check in a miserable 2-9 at home off a win by two goals or more over a division opponent over the last two seasons, outscored by an average margin of 1.4 goals in that spot. Worse still, Chicago is 0-6 when at home off consecutive wins over division opponents over the last three seasons, allowing a whopping 5.2 goals per game and outscored by 2.7 goals on average in that situation. While they have nothing but pride to play for, the Stars have generally done a good job of tightening things up in similar situations, allowing just 2.1 goals per game off a division loss by two goals or more over the last three seasons. Take Dallas (10*). |
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05-10-21 | Islanders v. Bruins UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
NHL East Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Boston at 7:05 pm et on Monday. We're likely only seeing a 5.5 here due to the fact that both teams are coming off 'over' results on Saturday and have generally been trending in that direction over the last week or so. I'm not anticipating a 'high-event' game on Monday night as the Isles wrap up their regular season schedule in Boston. New York snapped its three-game losing streak with a 5-1 victory over New Jersey on Saturday (we won with the Isles) but has still scored three goals or less in seven of its last nine games overall and checks in averaging a miserable 2.0 goals per game on the road this season. Boston has scored exactly four goals in back-to-back games and that plays into our favor here, noting that the 'under' has gone a perfect 5-0 after the B's have put up four goals or more in consecutive games this season, with those contests totaling an average of just 3.4 goals. The 'under' also checks in 8-2 with the Bruins playing at home following an 'over' result, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 5.0 goals. Meanwhile, the Isles have posted a 1-7 o/u mark when heading on the road following a home game this season, with those contests totaling an average of just 3.5 goals. We've also seen the 'under' cash at a 15-5 clip with the Isles coming off a victory by four goals or more over the last three seasons, with those games totaling an average of only 4.7 goals. Finally, the 'under' has cashed in four of the last five meetings between these two teams in Boston and eight of their last 11 matchups overall. Take the under (10*). |
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05-08-21 | Devils v. Islanders -220 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 56 m | Show |
NHL Chalk Game of the Month. My selection is on New York over New Jersey at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. The Islanders have picked a bad time to start slumping, losers of three games in a row against non-playoff opponents in the Sabres and Devils. It hasn't been for lack of trying as they've fired 81 shots on goal over the last two games. Here, I look for the Isles to finally get back in the win column as they fall in a positive situation having gone 25-12 after losing three of their last four games over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by 0.9 goals on average in that situation. Isles head coach Barry Trotz has a way of getting his teams back up after a tough stretch, with his teams having gone 20-5 the last 25 times they've come off consecutive losses against division opponents, as is the case here. Note that the Devils have allowed a whopping 4.5 goals per game when playing on the road after allowing one goal or less in their last game over the last three seasons, outscored by an average margin of 1.7 goals in that spot. New Jersey's victory on Thursday night was just their second in their last six tries over the last three seasons here on Long Island. Look for the Isles to get back on track here before a tough regular season finale on the road against the Bruins. Take New York (10*). |
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05-07-21 | Blues v. Golden Knights -158 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
NHL Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Vegas over St. Louis at 10:05 pm et on Friday. Both of these teams will be heading to the postseason but the Knights have a little more to play for in this two-game set as they try to lock up home ice advantage throughout with an outside shot at grabbing the league's top overall seed. They'll also be playing with revenge on their minds after suffering a 3-1 loss in St. Louis back on April 7th (the Knights outshot the Blues 51-35 in that game). Note that Vegas has gone an incredible 17-2 when revenging a road loss by two goals or more against an opponent over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.3 goals in that situation. The Knights are a terrific positive momentum play here having gone 27-7 all-time off a one-goal victory over a division opponent, outscoring opponents by 1.6 goals on average in that spot. It's the opposite story for the Blues as they limp to Las Vegas off an embarrassing home loss against the lowly Ducks. Note that St. Louis has gone a miserable 11-21 when coming off a one-goal loss over the last two seasons, outscored by an average margin of 0.7 goals in that situation. The Blues also check in 3-8 after winning four or five of their last six games this season, as is the case here, allowing 3.2 goals per game in that spot. While we have seen a few defensive lapses from the Knights lately, those have been few and far between here at home, where they allow just 2.2 goals per game on the season. Take Vegas (10*). |
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05-06-21 | Blackhawks v. Hurricanes UNDER 6 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 103 | 22 h 53 m | Show |
NHL Central Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Carolina at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. Carolina has cruised to consecutive wins over the Blackhawks with both games going 'over' the total. Here on Thursday, I'm anticipating a reversal of sorts with a lower-scoring affair. Note that we've seen the Canes suffer a bit of a lull in similar situations, having averaged just 2.4 goals per game when coming off consecutive victories by two goals or more over the last two seasons. That situation has produced an average total of just 5.2 goals on the last 16 occasions it has come up. Note that the Blackhawks are averaging just 2.4 goals per game on the road this season and have been fortunate to score five goals in the first two games of this three-game set, noting that the Canes have been incredibly stout defensively at home this season, allowing only 2.1 goals per contest. I'm not convinced we see a real high-energy game here from either team as both teams wind down the regular season - the Blackhawks looking forward to hitting the golf course and the Canes preparing for what they hope will be a deep playoff run. We've seen similar situations this season where two teams play one another three times or more in the same location and by the end of the stretch, the intensity tends to wane. I expect a similar story to unfold in a potentially low-event contest on Thursday in Raleigh. Take the under (10*). |
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05-06-21 | Rangers v. Bruins UNDER 5.5 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
NHL East Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Boston at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Rangers are coming off consecutive emotional losses against the Capitals and I really question how much they have left in the tank for this one, playing their third game in four nights and the second of back-to-backs. The Bruins will be looking to tighten things up after blowing a third period lead in an eventual 4-3 loss to the Devils last time out. Note that the B's have been stout defensively here at home this season, allowing just 2.5 goals per game. Already in a foul mood following the loss in New Jersey, Boston will also be seeking revenge after dropping its last matchup with the Rangers by a 4-0 score here on home ice back on March 13th. Note that the 'under' has cashed in eight of the last 12 meetings overall and four of the last five here at TD Garden. The Rangers were completely distracted by the Tom Wilson fiasco over the last two games, allowing a whopping 10 goals in consecutive losses to the Caps. Note that prior to those two contests, New York had held 11 of its last 13 opponents to three goals or less. Offensively, the Rangers will without question missing Artemi Panarin - keeping in mind, this is a team that has already been held to three goals or less in five straight games, averaging just 1.6 goals per game over that stretch. Also note that the 'under' has gone a perfect 6-0 with the Rangers coming off four or more consecutive losses over the last three seasons, with those games totaling an average of just 3.7 goals. We have seen the Rangers tighten things up off a home loss this season, allowing an average of just 2.1 goals. Take the under (10*). |
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05-05-21 | Jets v. Flames OVER 5.5 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 22 m | Show |
NHL North Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Winnipeg and Calgary at 9:35 pm et on Wednesday. We missed the mark with the Jets on Monday night as they suffered a 2-1 loss in Ottawa - their seventh consecutive loss. We probably deserved a better fate as Winnipeg dominated possession and scoring chances in a game where they just as easily could have had four or five goals were it not for the exploits of Sens 22-year old goaltender Filip Gustavsson. We've certainly seen signs of the Jets offense breaking out as two games back they scored three goals in a loss in Montreal. Now we find Winnipeg averaging 4.1 goals per game when playing on the road after scoring one goal or less in its previous game over the last three seasons, with that situation producing an average total of 7.2 goals. We've seen the 'over' go 9-2 with the Jets coming off a game where four goals or less were scored, with an average total of 7.1 goals in those contests. Meanwhile, the Flames check in off a 4-1 loss against the rival Oilers on Saturday. In spite of that, they have been playing better hockey lately, scoring three goals or more in three of their last five games, going 3-2 over that stretch. Here, we find the Flames in a situation where the 'over' has gone 11-2 over the last three seasons, when they revenge a home loss by three goals or more, with that situation producing an average total of 8.2 goals. We've seen the Jets bounce back from poor offensive performances this season, but it's often come at the expense of their own defensively play as they've allowed 3.8 goals per game after scoring one goal or less in their previous contest this season, with that situation producing an average total of 6.9 goals. Finally, note that the 'over' checks in 4-3 in this matchup so far this season. Take the over (10*). |
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05-05-21 | Golden Knights v. Wild UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 104 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
NHL West Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Vegas and Minnesota at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Wild have now seen the 'over' cash in six straight games but I look for a different story to unfold on Wednesday night. Note that the 'under' is 3-2 in the last five meetings between these two teams in Minnesota and 7-4 in their last 11 matchups overall. This one sets up well as a potentially low-scoring game following Monday's wild (no pun intended) 6-5 result. The 'under' is 9-1 the last 10 times the Knights have played on the road following a road game where both teams scored at least three goals, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of just 4.8 goals. We've certainly seen Vegas tighten things up after a poor defensive showing in recent years as it has given up just 2.0 goals per game with the 'under' going 13-5 with an average total of just 4.6 goals when playing on the road after allowing five goals or more in its previous game. It's a similar story for the Wild as they've given up just 1.5 goals per game after allowing three goals or more in four consecutive games over the last three seasons, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). |
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05-04-21 | Oilers v. Canucks +1.5 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -141 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
NHL Puck-Line Game of the Month. My selection is on Vancouver +1.5 goals over Edmonton at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Oilers took the first game in this two-game set in Vancouver by a 5-3 score last night. The Canucks have now dropped five games in a row although four of those five losses came on the road. 12 of their 19 victories have come on home ice this season where they've been outscored by an average margin of just 0.2 goals. Note that Edmonton checks in 0-5 when coming off consecutive wins by two goals or more this season, as is the case here, outscored by 2.2 goals per game in that situation. Meanwhile, the Canucks have gone 16-9 when coming off a home loss over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by an average of 0.9 goals in that spot. As well as the Oilers have been playing, they haven't strung together three consecutive victories since March 17th to 20th. With this the second game of four in a row against Edmonton, look for the Canucks to show some push back on Tuesday night. We'll grab the insurance goal as the price warrants such a play. Take Vancouver +1.5 goals (10*). |
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05-03-21 | Jets -142 v. Senators | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -142 | 22 h 0 m | Show |
NHL North Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Winnipeg over Ottawa at 7:05 pm et on Monday. The Jets are reeling after six consecutive losses but have had a couple of days off to regroup before facing the Senators in Ottawa on Monday night. We won with the Jets in their last matchup with the Sens on April 14th and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Note that Winnipeg has taken four of the last six meetings here in Ottawa. The Senators have been playing some of their best hockey of the season, winners of six of their last nine games overall. Note that the Sens are averaging just 2.6 goals per game when revenging a same season loss against an opponent here in 2021, outscored by 1.0 goal per game in that situation. Meanwhile, the Jets are 8-1 coming off a road loss this season, outscoring opponents by 2.0 goals per game in that spot. They're 11-3, averaging 3.9 goals per game while outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.3 goals when coming off a road loss by two goals or more over the last two seasons. The Jets are dealing with the absence of Nik Ehlers as he's sidelined for the season with a shoulder injury but it's not as if he's the heart and soul of the team. This is an experienced, well-coached team and I'm confident we'll see them bounce back with a much-needed victory on Monday night. Take Winnipeg (10*). |
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05-01-21 | Blues v. Wild UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 18 m | Show |
NHL Revenge Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between St. Louis and Minnesota at 8:05 pm et on Saturday. We've seen consecutive high-scoring games between these two teams with the Blues prevailing in both. That actually sets us up for a low-scoring affair on Saturday, however, noting that the 'under' has gone 15-4 with the Wild coming off consecutive games totaling seven goals or more over the last three seasons with that situation producing an average total of just 4.9 goals. The 'under' is 12-2 in the same situation with the Blues over the last two seasons with an average total of 4.5 goals. Also note that the 'under' is 16-5 the last 21 times the Blues have played on the road off two or more consecutive 'over' results, as is the case here, with that spot producing an average total of 5.0 goals. The Wild will of course be out for revenge here after dropping four straight meetings in this series. The 'under' is 21-7 the last 28 times the Wild have been in a quadruple-revenge situation with those games totaling an average of only 4.4 goals. There's reason to believe the Wild can tighten things up here, noting that they allow just 2.3 goals per game on home ice this season. Prior to scoring at least four goals in each of their last four games the Blues had been held to three goals or less in 12 of their last 13 contests. Finally, keep in mind the 'under' has still cashed in four of the last seven meetings here in Minnesota. Take the under (10*). |
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04-29-21 | Islanders +114 v. Rangers | Top | 4-0 | Win | 114 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
NHL Rivalry Game of the Week. My selection is on the Islanders over the Rangers at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Islanders are having a tough time finding an offensive spark right now, having scored just three goals during a three-game losing streak - with all of those losses coming against the Capitals. They'll be happy to face a different team here tonight, especially the rival Rangers here at Madison Square Garden where they've taken four of the last seven meetings. While the Rangers have won three games in a row and seven of their last nine overall, it's important to consider the level of opposition they've faced. Those nine games including games against the Devils (four), Islanders, Flyers (two) and Sabres (two). Outside of the Isles those other three are all non-playoff teams and could be considered among the worst defensive teams in the league. Here, the Rangers are in a tough spot having gone 3-10 the last 13 times they've played at home after winning three of their last four games, outscored by an average margin of 1.2 goals in that situation. While the Isles won't be confused for an offensive juggernaut any time soon, they are in a favorable situation here having averaged 4.0 goals per game the last eight times they've come off a one-goal loss, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 0.9 goals on average in that spot. Under the guidance of head coach Barry Trotz, the Isles have gone 14-7 the last 21 times they've played on the road after losing three of their last four games overall, outscoring opponents by 0.8 goals per game in that situation. Meanwhile, the David Quinn-coached rangers are just 18-30 when coming off a win over a division opponent, giving up 3.4 goals per game in that spot. Take the Islanders (10*). |
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04-28-21 | Coyotes v. Sharks UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -104 | 16 h 58 m | Show |
NHL Revenge Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Arizona and San Jose at 10:35 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a wild, high-scoring game between these two teams two nights ago as the Sharks snapped their long losing streak with a 6-4 win on home ice. I'm expecting a different story to unfold on Wednesday, however, as the two teams wrap up a two-game set in San Jose. The Coyotes have scored four goals in each of their last two games but I'm not sure that level of production is sustainable given they had managed three goals or less in their six previous contests. Prior to potting six goals on Monday, the Sharks had been held to three goals or less in eight consecutive games. Note that the 'under' has gone 15-6 with the Sharks playing at home after losing four of their last five games over the last two seasons, with those contests totaling an average of just 5.2 goals. We've also seen San Jose post a 15-33 o/u mark when playing at home after allowing four goals or more in its last game over the last two seasons, with the Sharks averaging just 2.4 goals per game in that spot. Arizona checks in allowing just 2.1 goals per game after giving up five goals or more in a game this season, as is the case here, with that situation totaling just 5.1 goals on average. On the flip side, the Coyotes average just 2.6 goals per game when revenging a loss where their opponent scored four goals or more. Take the under (10*). |
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04-27-21 | Hurricanes -124 v. Stars | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
NHL Revenge Game of the Week. My selection is on Carolina over Dallas at 8:35 pm et on Tuesday. The Hurricanes got off a miserable start last night and despite rallying they ultimately fell short in a 4-3 overtime loss. I look for them to bounce back on Tuesday as they cool off the surging Stars in Dallas. Note that Carolina checks in allowing just 2.0 goals per game when playing on the road following a one-goal loss in their last game over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 0.6 goals on average in that spot. They've allowed just 1.8 goals per game the last 12 times they've played on the road following an overtime setback, outscoring opponents by 1.2 goals per game in that situation. Meanwhile, Dallas checks in allowing 3.3 goals per game after posting consecutive one-goal victories over division opponents (the last eight times that situation has come up). The Stars will have to contend with a Canes squad that averages an impressive 3.7 goals per game when revenging a road loss against an opponent over the last two seasons. It's been a true case of 'feast or famine' for the Stars offense for much of the season, noting that they average 3.3 goals per game on home ice but have only managed to go an even 13-13. Look for Carolina to get off to a more favorable start in tonight's game and snap its two-game skid, noting that it hasn't dropped three games in a row since March 16th-20th. Take Carolina (10*). |
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04-26-21 | Oilers v. Jets +100 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 4 m | Show |
NHL North Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Winnipeg over Edmonton at 9:05 pm et on Monday. The Jets bandwagon has essentially cleared following a three-game losing streak that started with a 3-0 loss to the same Oilers squad they'll play on Monday night. There's no need to push the panic button as Winnipeg is still firmly entrenched in one of four North Division playoff spots. The time to turn things around is certainly now, however, and I like their chances of doing just that on Monday night. The Oilers will be playing just their fifth game since April 10th and I do think we could see rust become a bit of a factor here. Note that the Jets are in a favorable spot here, having averaged 3.6 goals per game after scoring a goal or less in their previous contest this season and better still, averaging 3.9 goals per game when coming off a home loss against a division opponent over the last three seasons. Also note that Winnipeg has gone 23-11 when revenging a loss by two goals or more against an opponent over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 0.6 goals per game in that situation. The Jets also check in 21-10 after losing consecutive games over the last three seasons, outscoring the opposition by 0.7 goals on average in that spot. The Oilers are a long-term losing proposition when playing with three or more days rest, having gone 60-97 in their last 157 games in that situation, outscored by 0.3 goals on average. Finally, note that Edmonton averages just 2.2 goals per game when playing on the road after scoring three or more goals in consecutive games this season. The Oilers have taken four straight meetings and five of seven games in this matchup this season which should only help ratchet up the Jets motivation level for this one. Take Winnipeg (10*). |
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04-26-21 | Avalanche v. Blues UNDER 6 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
NHL West Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and St. Louis at 7:05 pm et on Monday. We've seen three straight relatively high-scoring affairs between these two teams with 7, 6 and 8 total goals scored. Here, I'm anticipating a lower-scoring contest as the Avs and Blues wrap up their three-game set in St. Louis. Note that you would have to go all the way back to February 2nd and 4th to find the last time the Blues posted consecutive 'over' results on home ice. While they certainly haven't been great defensively, they do check in having allowed four goals or less in seven consecutive games, which is encouraging after they had given up five goals or more four times during their previous 12-game stretch. The Avs are obviously in a prime bounce-back spot here but since we're looking at the total, consider that the 'under' has gone a perfect 5-0 the last five times Colorado has played on the road off a loss, with those contests totaling an average of just 4.2 goals. We've also seen the 'under' go 19-9 the last 28 times the Avs have played on the road revenging a loss against an opponent, with those games reaching an average total of 5.3 goals. For their part, the Blues have posted an 18-30 o/u record when playing at home following a game where seven or more total goals were scored over the last two seasons, with that situation producing an average total of 5.5 goals. While the last three games here have been high-scoring, the 'under' is actually 26-20 in the last 46 meetings between these two teams here in St. Louis. While Colorado's explosive offense is concerning, especially in a foul mood off a loss, it's worth noting that the Avs are still missing one of their top offensive threats in Mikko Rantanen as he deals with Covid protocols. Take the under (10*). |
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04-25-21 | Devils v. Flyers OVER 6 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
NHL East Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between New Jersey and Philadelphia at 6:05 pm et on Sunday. We were fortunate to get a 'push' with the 'over' in the Devils 4-2 loss in Pittsburgh yesterday. I'll come right back with the same play on Sunday as New Jersey draws a more favorable matchup to possible snap its nine-game losing streak, and certainly to pad its stats offensively. While the Devils have been losing game after game, they haven't had too much difficulty scoring goals, putting up 15 goals in their last five contests. They probably deserved more than two goals in yesterday's affair as they fired 36 shots on goal in the loss. Here, they draw a Flyers squad that has allowed at least four goals in four of its last seven games and gives up an average of 3.4 goals per game on home ice this season. Note that the Devils have averaged an impressive 4.3 goals per game when playing on the road off three or more straight road losses, as is the case here, over the last three seasons. New Jersey has all but throw in the towel defensively, allowing at least four goals in six straight and 10 of its last 12 games overall. Not helping matters has been the absence of defensemen P.K. Subban and Ty Smith. The Flyers are well-positioned to bust out here noting they average 3.4 goals per game after being held to one goal or less in their last game over the last two seasons. On the flip side, Philadelphia has given up a whopping 4.3 goals per game when playing its third game in four nights this season with that situation producing 6.8 total goals on average. We won with the 'over' when these two teams last squared off here in Philadelphia on March 23rd as the Devils stole a 4-3 victory. Expect a similarly high-scoring affair on Sunday. Take the over (10*). |
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04-25-21 | Bruins v. Penguins UNDER 5.5 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 109 | 6 h 37 m | Show |
NHL on NBC TV Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Pittsburgh at 3:05 pm et on Sunday. When these two teams last met on they combined to score 12 games in a wild 7-5 Bruins victory in Boston back on April 3rd. Here, I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair as the scene shifts to Pittsburgh on Sunday afternoon. Boston got caught flat-footed in its last game, suffering a 6-4 loss against the lowly Sabres. Keep in mind, that loss came after the Bruins had easily handled the Sabres in their previous two games. The 'under' has gone 25-10 with the Bruins coming off consecutive 'over' results over the last three seasons with those contests totaling an average of 5.3 goals. The Bruins average 2.9 goals per game in that situation but could be hard-pressed to reach that here against a Pens squad that allows just 2.3 goals per game on home ice this season. Boston could be without top line center Patrice Bergeron for this game after he missed Friday's game in Buffalo due to a lower-body injury. Note that the Pens have given up just 2.1 goals per game with the 'under' cashing at an 11-3 clip when playing at home off a win by two goals or more over a division opponent over the last two seasons, as is the case here. The 'under' has also gone a perfect 5-0 with the Penguins coming off three straight wins this season, with those games totaling an average of just 3.8 total goals. Pittsburgh's offense has been rolling lately but that's had a lot to do with the level of opposition it has faced as it is coming off five straight games against the Devils and Sabres - two of the league's worst teams. This is by no means an ideal spot as they play the second of back-to-back days against a Bruins team coming off a loss, noting that Pittsburgh has been held to two goals or less in three of six meetings in this series this season. Finally, keep in mind that the 'under' has cashed in three of the last five meetings here in Pittsburgh. Take the under (10*). |
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04-23-21 | Canadiens v. Flames -105 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 15 h 57 m | Show |
NHL North Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Calgary over Montreal at 9:05 pm et on Friday. We won with the Canadiens +1.5 in their outright victory in Edmonton two nights ago. They have a solid hold on the fourth and final playoff spot in the North Division but the Flames have an opportunity to close the gap with three straight home games against the Habs, beginning with this one on Friday night. Note that Montreal is just 6-13 coming off a win this season, allowing 3.1 goals per game and outscored by an average margin of 0.4 goals. The Habs are 2-8 the last 10 times they've come off a one-goal win over a division opponent, as is the case here, averaging just 2.2 goals per game and outscored by 0.7 goals on average in that spot. Meanwhile, the Flames check in 28-15 in their last 43 games after giving up four goals or more in their last contest, outscoring opponents by 1.0 goal per game in that situation. While Montreal will be playing its fifth game in the last eight nights, the Flames will be taking to the ice for just the third time over that same stretch. Having dropped their last two, including a 2-1 setback against these same Canadiens one week ago tonight, this is a virtual must-win for Calgary and it should be confident having taken four of the previous six meetings in this series this season. Take Calgary (10*). |
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04-22-21 | Maple Leafs v. Jets OVER 5.5 | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
NHL Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Toronto and Winnipeg at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. This situation sets up well for a high-scoring affair as the Leafs and Jets are both in bounce-back mode on Thursday night. Toronto is coming off stunning back-to-back losses against the Canucks, who were coming off a long layoff due to a Covid outbreak within the team. We do find the Leafs in good position to rebound here, noting that they average 3.8 goals per game after losing five or six of their last seven contests over the last three seasons. They also average an identical 3.8 goals per game when revenging a home loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, with that situation producing 7.3 total goals on average. The Jets are coming off a 3-0 shutout loss on home ice against Edmonton on Saturday. Perhaps that poor showing was to be expected as they were returning home following a successful five-game road trip on just one day of rest - a situation they had previously struggled in this season. Here, we note that the Jets average 4.0 goals per game following a home loss against a division opponent over the last three seasons, with that situation producing an average total of 6.9 goals. Winnipeg has been a terrific bounce-back team this season, averaging 3.9 goals per game off a loss. Also note that the Jets average a whopping 4.7 goals per game the last seven times they've come off a shutout loss. While the 'under' has cashed in three of the last four meetings between these two teams in Winnipeg, the 'over' checks in 6-5 in the last 11 matchups in the series. Take the over (10*). |
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04-21-21 | Predators v. Blackhawks UNDER 5.5 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -106 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
NHL Central Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Nashville and Chicago at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a relatively high-scoring game between these two teams last time out as the Preds skated to a 5-2 victory on home ice two nights ago in Nashville. Now the scene shifts to Chicago for the second of three straight meetings between these Central Division foes, noting that the 'under' has cashed in four of the last six games between these two here at the United Center. It's been 'feast or famine' for the Preds offense lately as they've scored five goals or more on three occasions over the last two weeks, but outside of that have been held to three goals or less in 10 of their last 13 games overall. Note that the Preds average just 2.5 goals per game on the road this season. They've posted a 1-8 o/u record after scoring four goals or more in their last game this season, averaging just 1.7 goals per game with those contests averaging a total of just 4.1 goals. Also note that the 'under' is 14-4 with the Preds playing on the road off a win over a division opponent over the last two seasons, with those contests totaling just 4.5 goals on average. Meanwhile, the Blackhawks are giving up just 2.1 goals per game when playing at home off a loss this season. We're not seeing many true offensive explosions from the Blackhawks this season, noting they haven't scored more than four goals in a game since back on February 28th. They've been held to two goals or less in seven of their last 12 games overall. Take the under (10*). |
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04-20-21 | Ducks v. Kings UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
NHL West Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Anaheim and Los Angeles at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Kings will be back on the ice following an extended layoff, noting that the 'over' had cashed in their last six games prior to that. That's not a sustainable streak for a Los Angeles squad that averages just 2.7 goals per game and I expect the tide to finally turn against the Ducks on Tuesday. Note that Anaheim has actually held its own defensively on the road this season, allowing just 2.7 goals per contest. The Ducks enter tonight's game off consecutive home losses against the Golden Knights, allowing nine goals in the process. Note that the 'under' has gone 17-4 with the Ducks having lost two of their last three games this season, with those contests totaling an average of just 4.6 goals. Meanwhile, the Kings check in sporting an 18-37 o/u record when playing at least their third consecutive home game, with those games reaching an average total of just 4.9 goals. We've also seen the 'under' go a perfect 7-0 the last seven times the Kings have played at home on three days or more of rest, as is the case here, with those games totaling an average of just 4.4 goals. Finally we'll note that three of the last four meetings between these California rivals in Los Angeles have stayed 'under' the total. Take the under (10*). |
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04-19-21 | Senators v. Flames OVER 6 | Top | 4-2 | Push | 0 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
NHL Revenge Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Ottawa and Calgary at 9:05 pm et on Monday. I'm anticipating a high-scoring affair between the Senators and Flames on Monday night after we saw a couple of grind-it-out contests between them in Ottawa back in late March. Those two games totaled just 3 and 4 goals as the Senators swept the two-game set. It's interesting to note that the first of those two contests actually saw a closing total of 6.5 goals. We've already seen the two previous matchups between the Sens and Flames in Calgary produce 10 and 7 goals this season and I expect to see plenty of offense on display on Monday as well. Note that Calgary averages a whopping 4.8 goals per game when seeking revenge for consecutive losses against an opponent in which it was held to one goal or less, as is the case here as I noted above. That situation has produced an average total of 7.4 goals. Meanwhile, the Sens have allowed 4.7 goals per game when coming off a win by three goals or more against a division opponent over the last three seasons, with that spot producing 7.0 total goals on average. Of course, Ottawa checks in allowing a miserable 4.5 goals per game on the road this season, despite Saturday's shutout win in Montreal. The Flames are back home where they've been considerably better offensively this season, averaging 3.1 goals per game with their contests here totaling an average of 6.1 goals. Take the over (10*). |
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04-18-21 | Islanders v. Flyers UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
NHL East Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Philadelphia at 6:35 pm et on Sunday. The Flyers are coming off a high-scoring game yesterday as they allowed five goals or more for the third time in their last four games in a 6-3 loss to the Capitals. Note that Philadelphia has allowed just 2.3 goals per game when coming off a loss by three goals or more against a division opponent over the last two seasons and faces an Islanders squad that has been held to three goals or less in seven straight games. Also note that the Flyers have allowed just 2.2 goals per game when playing at home revenging a one-goal loss against an opponent over the last two seasons. The Isles check in off consecutive losses to the Bruins and are set up in an interesting situation here as they've posted an 0-6 o/u mark the last six times they've played on the road off a shutout loss, with those contests averaging just 2.7 total goals. The 'under' is also 6-0 when New York comes off a loss by three goals in its last game this season, with those games producing an average total of just 3.7 goals. Going back further, the 'under' is 14-3 with the Isles playing on the road off a road loss by three goals or more over the last two seasons, with those contests totaling an average of 4.5 goals. This series started off high-scoring this season with three of the first four meetings totaling exactly seven goals. Since then, we've seen the 'under' go a perfect 3-0 with all three contests totaling five goals or less. Take the under (10*). |
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04-17-21 | Oilers v. Jets OVER 6 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -101 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
North Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Edmonton and Winnipeg at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. With the 'over' having cashed in four of the last five meetings between these two teams in Winnipeg and the Oilers itching to get back on the ice following an extended layoff, I'm expecting a high-scoring game on Saturday night. Note that Edmonton will be playing for the first time in a week due to Covid-related postponements against the Canucks. The 'over' is a perfect 7-0 the last seven times the Oilers have played on three or more days' rest over the last two seasons with those games averaging a whopping 9.0 total goals. Meanwhile, the Jets check in averaging 3.9 goals per game when revenging a loss where their opponent scored four goals or more this season, as is the case here. When we last saw Edmonton play, it suffered a 5-0 loss at the hands of rival Calgary last Saturday. That actually sets up the Oilers quite well here as they average 3.7 goals per game after allowing five goals or more in their last game over the last two seasons. The 'under' has gone 2-0-1 in the last three meetings in this series but all three of those games were played in Edmonton. As I mentioned at the top, this has been a considerably higher-scoring matchup in games played in Winnipeg recently with two meetings here this season totaling 7 and 10 goals. Take the over (10*). |
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04-16-21 | Golden Knights v. Ducks UNDER 5.5 | Top | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 15 h 20 m | Show |
NHL West Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Vegas and Anaheim at 10:05 pm et on Friday. We missed with the 'under' in Vegas' 6-2 win in Los Angeles two nights ago as the Kings long 'over' streak remained intact. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here, however, as the Golden Knights continue their California road trip in Anaheim on Friday night. The Ducks are coming off consecutive four-goal outbursts in victories over the Sharks in San Jose. That sets them up poorly here, however, noting that they've averaged just 1.8 goals per game when coming off consecutive wins over the last two seasons, with those games totaling an average of just 5.1 goals. Of course, that's pretty much par for the course for Anaheim here at home this season, where it averages just 1.9 goals per game. The Golden Knights average 3.1 goals per game on the road but check in averaging just 2.2 goals per game when playing their third game in five days over the last two seasons, as is the case here. That situation has produced an average total of just 4.7 goals with the 'under' cashing at a 14-5 clip. We've also seen the 'under' go 18-9 with the Knights playing on the road following a game where seven or more total goals were scored over the last two seasons. Meanwhile, the Ducks have posted an 0-6 o/u mark when at home revenging a one-goal loss against an opponent this season, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of just 4.0 goals. I'll also point out that three of the last five meetings here in Anaheim stayed 'under' the total. Take the under (10*). |
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04-15-21 | Predators v. Hurricanes UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 102 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
NHL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Nashville and Carolina at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. With the Hurricanes coming off stunning back-to-back losses against the lowly Red Wings I expect to see them tighten things up against the surging Predators on Thursday, noting that Carolina has allowed just 2.2 goals per game on home ice this season. Nashville checks in with the 'under' having gone 8-1 when playing on the road off a home win by two goals or more over the last two seasons with those games averaging just 3.6 total goals. For its part, Carolina has posted a 1-10 o/u record when playing at home after losing two of its last three games over the last two seasons, allowing just 1.9 goals per game in that situation with an average total of just 4.4 goals. Also note that the 'under' has cashed in two of the last three meetings between these two teams in Carolina. Take the under (10*). |
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04-15-21 | Devils +1.5 v. Rangers | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -125 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
NHL East Division Puck-Line Game of the Year. My selection is on New Jersey +1.5 goals over New York at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Rangers have posted some big wins lately that give off the impression that they're playing better than they actually are. The fact is, New York hasn't won consecutive games since March 30th and April 1st. New Jersey has somewhat surprisingly been a much better team on the road than at home this season, posting a 10-8 record in enemy territory while averaging 3.1 goals per game. Here, the Devils are set up well having gone a perfect 4-0 when playing on the road off three straight home losses, outscoring opponents by a whopping 2.8 goals per game in that situation (yes, I know, small sample size). We've also seen the Devils go 7-2 when playing on the road after being held to two goals or less in their last two games over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 0.4 goals per game in that spot. Meanwhile, the Rangers are a woeful 2-9 when coming off a win by three goals or more this season, outscored by 1.0 goal per game in that spot. They're 0-8 the last eight times they've come off a shutout victory, as is the case here, allowing 3.9 goals per game while being outscored by an average margin of two goals in that spot. The Devils have certainly held their own in this series at MSG in recent years, splitting the last six meetings, including taking both matchups in Manhattan this season. Take New Jersey +1.5 goals (10*). |
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