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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-22-16 | Texans v. Patriots +1.5 | 0-27 | Win | 100 | 24 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on New England plus the points over Houston at 8:25 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the Patriots as a rare home underdog on Thursday night. No need to get too carried away analyzing this matchup. I have a lot of confidence backing the Patriots as they stay home for a second straight game, and face an opponent that will draw plenty of motivation, especially with the Pats being down to their third-string quarterback. Look for New England to do an excellent job defensively, minimizing the effectiveness of elite WR DeAndre Hopkins. Lamar Miller has been good but not great out of the backfield in his first year with the Texans. Meanwhile, Brock Osweiler should struggle at times in his first road start of the season. Jacoby Brissett will start for the Pats under center and while that's a downgrade at the position to be sure, the Pats still have plenty of solid pieces around him, even if Gronk can't suit up. In what could be a grinder, I'll put my money on the Pats. Take New England (10*). |
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09-19-16 | Eagles v. Bears -3 | 29-14 | Loss | -120 | 24 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago minus the points over Philadelphia at 8:30 pm et on Monday. The Eagles are certainly the popular choice in this one, and why not? After all they sailed to a 29-10 win over the Browns last week with rookie QB Carson Wentz turning in a stellar debut performance. I'm not sure we see a repeat as Wentz makes his first career road start in Chicago, however. It's not easy to back the Bears these days, but I do like the way this spot sets up. This is a team in desperate need of a jolt and here they get a manageable matchup against an Eagles squad that isn't quite as complete as it appeared in that Week 1 victory. It's worth noting that Philadelphia will be without TE Zach Ertz on Monday, a key safety valve for QB Wentz. Ertz caught six passes for 60+ yards in last week's victory. The Bears are going to need a big game from a number of key players on offense, and for the defense to hold up better than it did a week ago. I'm betting they check both of those boxes on Monday. Take Chicago (10*). |
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09-18-16 | Packers v. Vikings +2 | 14-17 | Win | 100 | 33 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota plus the points over Green Bay at 8:30 pm et on Sunday. Everyone is quick to proclaim Green Bay as being 'back' after its Week 1 win, but I'm not so sure. First of all, the Packers never really went anywhere, but let's not get too excited by that victory against the Jaguars in Jacksonville. Yes, the Jags have some upside, but the Pack will face a much tougher challenge here against a Vikings squad that has its sights set on an NFC Championship - even with QB Teddy Bridgewater sidelined. The Vikes still have the pieces in place to get the job done and keep pace with the Packers in the NFC North all season long. They'll feed Adrian Peterson all night long on Sunday and let the defense take care of the rest. This will be a close one, I'm comfortable grabbing the points with Minnesota, even if we're not catching many. Take Minnesota (10*). |
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09-18-16 | Falcons +4.5 v. Raiders | Top | 35-28 | Win | 100 | 29 h 47 m | Show |
My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over Oakland at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. The Falcons couldn't have looked much worse while the Raiders couldn't have looked any better in last week's respective season openers. Here I'll go against the public and back the Falcons plus the points as I feel they'll be highly-motivated, and capable of pulling off the "upset" win in the Black Hole. I'm a big fan of the Raiders this year, and I do believe there will be money to be made backing them, but we're going to have to pick our spots. This isn't one of them. The Raiders haven't had much of a home field advantage in recent years, but let's face it, their team has stunk. This is a different squad this year, but it certainly won't be able to catch the Falcons looking past it - not after last week's stunning victory in New Orleans. Atlanta has the type of offense that can give the Raiders trouble and I'm anticipating a big day from the Ryan-Jones combo. This has the makings of one of the week's more entertaining games. Take Atlanta (10*). |
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09-18-16 | Titans +6.5 v. Lions | Top | 16-15 | Win | 100 | 25 h 25 m | Show |
My selection is on Tennessee plus the points over Detroit at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'll grab the points with the Titans in this one, even after that demoralizing blown opportunity against the Vikings in their home opener last week. Of course, there's a big difference between the defense the Titans faced last week and the one they'll line up against this week at Ford Field. Detroit was involved in a wild contest in Indianapolis last week and ultimately prevailed by four points, but gave up a whopping 35 points in the process. Here they'll take a step down in class against a Titans offense that still has plenty of kinks to work out, but I'm confident we'll see Tennessee hang tough. I liked them last week and missed the mark, but I won't hesitate to go back to the well at better line value here. Take Tennessee (10*). |
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09-15-16 | Jets -1 v. Bills | Top | 37-31 | Win | 100 | 24 h 8 m | Show |
My selection is on New York minus the points over Buffalo at 8:25 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the Jets as they travel to Buffalo for an early season division showdown on Thursday night. New York battled but ultimately fell just short in a 23-22 loss to the Bengals last Sunday. The Jets offense looked disjointed in that game, although the Bengals defense had a lot to do with that. Here, New York will take a step down in class against the Bills defense. Speaking of shaky offensive performances, the Bills turned in a real stinker in Buffalo, scoring just a single touchdown in a losing effort. I honestly believe that there are some major changes necessary, and likely coming in Buffalo as the season progresses. Offensive coordinator Greg Roman just doesn't seem to be able to get the most out of the talent he has on hand, and I'm not sure anything will change in the Bills home opener on Thursday night. I'll get behind what I believe is the better all-around team in this one. Take New York (10*). |
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09-12-16 | Rams -2.5 v. 49ers | Top | 0-28 | Loss | -113 | 28 h 30 m | Show |
My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over San Francisco at 10:20 pm et on Monday. Not to oversimplify things here, but I really think we're getting the lesser of two evils in the Rams on Monday night. There's a good chance the 49ers turn out to be one of the league's weakest teams this season so I'll gladly fade them here in Week 1 before the lines get out of hand. The Rams aren't going to set the NFC on fire in their first season back in Los Angeles. While I'm not a big fan of Case Keenum as a starting quarterback at this level I do believe he's serviceable in this particular matchup. On the flip side, the 49ers will lean heavily on their ground game in Chip Kelly's up-temp offense, especially when you consider Blaine Gabbert is getting the start under center. This one likely won't be pretty but I'm comfortable laying a short number with a Rams squad that will have plenty of motivation and certainly won't look past the 49ers on the road. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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09-11-16 | Dolphins +10.5 v. Seahawks | Top | 10-12 | Win | 100 | 19 h 22 m | Show |
My selection is on Miami plus the points over Seattle at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. I like the Dolphins in an underdog role, not only this week, but this season in general. I believe we'll see the Miami offense really grind down the opposition, dinking and dunking down the field with Ryan Tannehill at the helm. This is a team desperate to find an offensive identity this season, and I'm confident they'll do just that. It certainly won't be difficult for the Fins to get up for this opening week matchup as they head west to face the always tough Seahawks at CenturyLink Field. Seattle has its sights set on another NFC championship this year and while the pieces are in place for the Seahawks to contend for that title, there are a lot of question marks as well. Note that Seattle closed out last season on a 1-3 ATS slide. They may have to gut out a victory on Sunday afternoon. I'll grab all the points I can get with Miami. Take Miami (10*). |
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09-11-16 | Bucs +2.5 v. Falcons | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 16 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay plus the points over Atlanta at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Bucs finished last season with a whimper, dropping their final four games both SU and ATS. It's worth noting that their most recent win came against these same Falcons back on December 6th of last year. I'm fairly high on the Bucs entering the new campaign, however. I like the fact that they start the season with a road division game as they'll have little trouble getting up for this one. Meanwhile, Atlanta just seems disjointed to me. Matt Ryan continues to hold down the starting quarterback job but for how much longer? There just hasn't been enough winning in recent years and I'm not sure things change here in 2016. It's great to have Julio Jones on the field but he won't be enough on Sunday. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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09-11-16 | Chargers +6.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 27-33 | Win | 100 | 16 h 21 m | Show |
My selection is on San Diego plus the points over Kansas City at 1 pm et on Sunday. Everyone is down on the Chargers again this year, but what else is new? I actually feel that the AFC West is going to be fairly wide open this season, however, and I don't consider the Chargers to be a down-trodden bunch entering the new campaign. Philip Rivers should do enough to keep his squad in this one from start to finish on Sunday. The Chiefs stumbled against the Patriots in the second round of the playoffs last January - there was certainly no shame in bowing out in the Divisional Round. This is a complete team, there's no question about that. But I simply feel the Chiefs are being asked to lay too many points in a division game, at home where the pressure is steep, right out of the gates in 2016. Kansas City has taken the last four meetings in this series, but prior to that the Chargers had dominated. Look for a tight one at Arrowhead on Sunday. Take San Diego (10*). |
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09-08-16 | Panthers v. Broncos +3 | 20-21 | Win | 105 | 48 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on Denver plus the points over Carolina at 8:30 pm et on Thursday. I can’t help but feel the wrong team is being favored in this Super Bowl rematch between the Panthers and Broncos in Denver. In a less than eventful Super Bowl last February, Denver managed to outmuscle Carolina, thanks in large part to its suffocating defense. The Panthers caught fire last year and went on quite a run to reach that game, but in the end, I believe it was their lack of depth on the offensive side of the football that cost them. Cam Newton was frustrated by the Broncos defense, plain and simple, and I’m not sure that much will change seven months later. Denver is ushering in a new era offensively following Peyton Manning’s retirement, but let’s face it, the veteran Manning wasn’t exactly setting opposing defenses on fire the last couple of years. Trevor Siemian takes over the reins under center, this week at least, and I expect him to play better than most expect. Both Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders are poised for bounce back campaigns while RB C.J. Anderson has been given the starting role, but will be pushed by rookie DeVontae Booker. In what should be an entertaining opener, I’ll back the Broncos to sting the Panthers once again. Take Denver (10*). |
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