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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-07-21 | Cavs v. Mavs UNDER 221 | Top | 90-110 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Dallas at 8:40 pm et on Friday. Cleveland catches Dallas in an advantageous spot on Friday night, rested and waiting while the Mavs were involved in a thrilling victory over the Nets in a marquee showdown just last night. Of course, the Cavs don't really have the personnel to take full advantage as they check in having lost eight straight and 11 of their last 12 games overall. I do think we at least see the Cavs show some pride defensively here after allowing 122 or more points in four straight games and six consecutive opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field. This isn't a spot where we're likely to see the Mavs go off offensively on the second of back-to-back nights. There's always the chance that they end up resting some starters (most notably Luka Doncic) although we'll operate under the assumption that they'll have the same lineup that we saw last night at the very least. Note that the Mavs have actually been a weaker offensive team at home compared to on the road this season, averaging 110.6 points per game on 46.6% shooting entering last night's contest. After last night's game managed to say 'under' the total, the 'under' is now 20-14 with the Mavs playing at home this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 20-13 in all Cavs road games this season, where they average just 100.1 points per game on 44.1% shooting. Their offense isn't operating with much efficiency right now, largely due to the absence of standout sophomore Darius Garland, who is sidelined with an ankle injury. There seem to be a lot of instances where the Cavs are just standing around waiting for Collin Sexton to take over the game. He's a dynamic scorer to be sure, but he obviously needs help for the Cavs to be competitive. Note that Cleveland has shot 43.4% or worse from the field in four of its last six games, most recently shooting 40.2% in a 36-point rout at the hands of the Blazers, at home no less. Take the under (10*). |
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05-07-21 | Pelicans v. 76ers -9.5 | 107-109 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over New Orleans at 7:10 pm et on Friday. We won with the Pelicans in their last game as they rallied to defeat the Warriors and split a two-game set at home. New Orleans checks in 5-1 ATS over its last six games but let's face it, this team isn't really going anywhere sitting six games under .500 in 11th place in the Western Conference. With Brandon Ingram sidelined and Zion Williamson having aggravated an injury to his hand last time out, I could certainly see them folding the tent should they find themselves trailing by any considerable margin in the fourth quarter tonight. Philadelphia has been pouring it on lately, winning six straight games, scoring more than 120 points in four of those contests. The 76ers and healthy and firing on all cylinders, having shot better than 53% from the field in four of their last six games while holding the opposition to 45.2% or worse shooting in all six of those contests. I don't expect any sort of letdown from Philadelphia here after it lost by seven points on the road against New Orleans (as a five-point favorite) in the last matchup between these two teams less than a month ago. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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05-06-21 | Lakers v. Clippers OVER 211 | Top | 94-118 | Win | 100 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
NBA on TNT Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between the Lakers and Clippers at 10:10 pm et on Thursday. These two teams were involved in a sleepy 104-86 affair in favor of the Clippers back on Easter Sunday but I expect a different story to unfold in Thursday's rematch. The Lakers are coming off a low-scoring victory over the Nuggets on Monday night. It's worth noting that only once over their last 15 games have we seen the Lakers post consecutive 'under' results. With Anthony Davis back on the court there's reason to believe they can put up more of a fight against the Clippers than we saw from them in their last meeting back on April. The Clippers haven't looked overly motivated in the last couple of weeks, dropping three of their last four games SU and five in a row ATS. Note that the Clips average a whopping 124.3 points per game after losing five or six of their last seven games ATS over the last two seasons, with those contests totaling an average of 228 points. I certainly expect to see the Clippers get up for this matchup and I'm confident they can break out of their offensive funk, noting that they average 116.4 points per game on 49.1% shooting here at home this season. Defensively, the Clippers are an elite team but haven't been quite as locked in lately, allowing three of their last four opponents to shoot 47.3% or better from the field. Note that the 'over' is 41-24 with the Clippers at home coming off a win over the last three seasons with that situation producing an average total of 227.4 points. While the 'under' is 20-11 in Lakers road games this season (I realize calling this a 'road' game is a stretch) those contests have actually totaled an average of 212.9 points - just north of the number we're working with tonight. Take the over (10*). |
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05-05-21 | Spurs v. Jazz OVER 218.5 | Top | 94-126 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'over' between San Antonio and Utah at 9:10 pm et on Wednesday. We missed the mark with the 'over' in the first game of this two-game set in Utah on Monday as the Jazz cruised to a 110-99 victory. Now we're dealing with an even lower posted total and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play. Note that the 'over' has gone 22-11 the last 33 times the Spurs have come off a road loss with those contests totaling an average of 231 points. The 'over' has also gone 9-1 with the Spurs coming off at least four straight losses over the last two seasons with that situation producing an average total of 233.1 points. The Jazz check in averaging an impressive 120.6 points per game when playing at home off a double-digit home win, as is the case here, with that situation producing a total of 226.5 points on average this season. Finally, note that San Antonio averages 117 points per game when revenging a double-digit road loss against an opponent over the last three seasons, with that spot producing an average total of 226.6 points. Utah will be without Donovan Mitchell and Mike Conley again here, but I'm still anticipating a relatively high-scoring affair, noting that five of the last nine meetings in this series have gone 'over' the total with three of the last four eclipsing the number we're dealing with tonight. Take the over (10*). |
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05-04-21 | Warriors v. Pelicans -2.5 | 103-108 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on New Orleans minus the points over Golden State at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Warriors took the first game of this two-game set in New Orleans last night but I like the Pelicans to bounce back here on Tuesday. Note that New Orleans has outscored the opposition by 3.2 points on average when coming off an upset loss as a favorite this season. The Pelicans also check in averaging 119.3 points per game when revenging a double-digit loss this season. The Warriors are just 10-22 ATS when playing the second of back-to-backs over the last three seasons, outscored by an average margin of 4.7 points in that spot. They're also just 3-11 ATS after posting consecutive wins this season, outscored by 7.3 points per game in that situation. Take New Orleans (10*). |
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05-04-21 | Nets +2 v. Bucks | Top | 118-124 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
NBA Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on Brooklyn plus the points over Milwaukee at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Nets are coming off consecutive losses, including a three-point setback in a poor all around performance here in Milwaukee on Sunday afternoon. I look for Brooklyn to answer back positively here on Tuesday as it finds itself in what I would consider a smash spot offensively after being held to 42.1% and 42.7% shooting in its last two games. Keep in mind, the Nets had shot 48.2% or better in seven of its previous 11 contests, even with what seems like a merry-go-round rotation on any given night. The Nets are averaging north of 119 points per game on an impressive 49.3% shooting on the road this season. Of course, the Bucks have been every bit as good offensively here at home this season and enter this game off consecutive victories. They haven't won three games in a row since April 11th to 15th, however, going just 5-4 SU and ATS since. They're certainly not invincible here at home, having lost five games outright here in Milwaukee since March 26th. Note that the Nets are 34-16 ATS when on the road revenging a loss in which their opponent scored 110 points or more over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by 0.8 points on average in that situation. Milwaukee checks in a miserable 7-17 ATS after winning five or six of its last seven games this season, as is the case here. The Bucks are also just 29-49 ATS when coming off a home win by three points or less the last 78 times that situation has come up. Take Brooklyn (10*). |
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05-03-21 | Spurs v. Jazz OVER 220 | 99-110 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between San Antonio and Utah at 10:10 pm et on Monday. The Jazz are coming off a low-scoring come-from-behind victory over the Raptors on Saturday as they continue to sputter without Donovan Mitchell and now Mike Conley as well. With that being said, I see this as a smash spot for Utah at home against a Spurs squad playing its second of back-to-back games after an overtime loss at home against the 76ers last night. Note that the 'over' has gone 14-5 after San Antonio posts three ATS wins in its last four games this season, with that situation producing an average total of 233.8 points. The 'over' is also 22-9 with the Spurs playing on the road off a loss over the last two seasons, with that spot resulting in an average total of 231.2 points. Meanwhile, Utah averages an impressive 121.9 points per contest when playing at home off a home win this season. Even when factoring in Mitchell and Conley's absences we can still project the Jazz to have a big night offensively against a Spurs squad that has allowed two of its last four opponents to shoot 50.6% or better from the field. It is worth noting that San Antonio has actually been a better offensive team on the road compared to at home, averaging 113.5 points per game on 46.7% shooting in the visitors role. The first meeting between these two teams this season produced 239 total points and the 'over' has cashed in five of the last eight meetings overall. Take the over (10*). |
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05-03-21 | Blazers v. Hawks UNDER 236.5 | 114-123 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Portland and Atlanta at 8:10 pm et on Monday. The Blazers are off to a perfect 4-0 start to their current road trip, scoring 133, 130, 128 and 129 points in the process. I like the Hawks chances of at least slowing them down here in Atlanta on Monday, noting that Atlanta has allowed 96, 103, 104 and 97 points over its last four home games and has allowed just three opponents to shoot 49% or better going all the way back to April 1st. It's certainly worth noting that the 'under' has cashed at a 13-5 clip with the Hawks listed as home favorite this season, with those games totaling an average of just 217.2 points. While the Blazers have been rolling offensively, it's important to give some credit to their defensive play as well. They've held four of their last five opponents to 46.5% or worse shooting from the field. I'm not entirely sure they'll be looking for a track meet here against a rested Hawks squad, noting that Portland will be playing its fifth game in the last seven nights, in five different cities. At the same time, Atlanta will want to take Portland out of its own element and perhaps turn things one into more of a physical affair. The 'under' is 17-13 in Hawks home games this season and I'll call for that trend to continue here. Take the under (10*). |
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05-03-21 | Blazers v. Hawks -1 | Top | 114-123 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
NBA Revenge Game of the Year. My selection is on Atlanta minus the points over Portland at 8:10 pm et on Monday. The Hawks are well-positioned to go on a late season run after a brief lull on the road last week. Trae Young returned to the lineup two games back and proceeded to pour in 30+ points in both contests. Now Atlanta draws a tough matchup with the surging Blazers on Monday with Portland coming off its fourth straight road win to open its current trip last night in Boston. I believe the Hawks will be up to the challenge in this revenge spot after suffering a 112-106 loss in Portland back in mid-January. Note that the last time these two teams met here in Atlanta, the Hawks prevailed by a 129-117 score last February. The Hawks shook off a three-game losing streak to deliver a 108-97 win over the Bulls on Saturday. They've scored just 104 and 108 points since Trae Young returned to the lineup but an offensive outburst is coming, and could very well come against a road-weary Blazers squad on Monday. Note that Portland allows 114.9 points per game on 47.6% shooting on the road this season. Meanwhile, Atlanta checks in 13-5 ATS as a home favorite this season, allowing just 104.3 points per game in that situation. The Hawks have put together a terrific stretch of defensive basketball here at home lately, allowing 96, 103, 104 and 97 points in their last four home games - all victories. Note that Atlanta is 26-14 ATS the last 40 times it has played at home revenging a loss against an opponent, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.9 points, which is more encouraging when you consider that trend goes back two seasons, when the Hawks were a far weaker team than they are this year. Take Atlanta (10*). |
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05-02-21 | Raptors v. Lakers -7 | Top | 121-114 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Blowout Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Toronto at 10:10 pm et on Sunday. Bettors were quick to get behind the Lakers on Friday night as Lebron James made a surprising return and Los Angeles closed as an 11.5-point favorite. Things didn't go well, however, as the Lakers ultimately fell by four points against the Kings. I expect a better performance from the Lakers here as they look to regain their footing and snap their two-game skid before a tougher matchup against the Nuggets tomorrow night. It actually wasn't that bad of a game from Los Angeles on Friday as it shot 50% from the field and held Sacramento to 45.3% shooting. It was a tough scheduling spot in the first place, given the Lakers were returning home on just one day rest and across three time zones following a four-game road trip. The Raptors have opened their current trip with consecutive losses in Denver and Utah. Toronto is simply playing out the string at this point and doesn't look all that interested in winning games, resting Kyle Lowry last night. I have no doubt the Raps will get up for this game on Sunday - I'm just not convinced they can match the Lakers hunger in this spot. Note that Toronto has allowed three straight opponents to shoot better than 47% from the field and things don't figure to get any easier here, playing on no rest after consecutive games in altitude. There's been plenty of talk after Lebron James indicated following Friday's game that he may never again be 100% healthy. That's just talk. If he's in the lineup on Sunday, he'll play well. If he's not, I still like the Lakers at a reasonable price against a road-weary Raptors squad playing their sixth game in the last nine nights, in five different cities (by contrast the Lakers are playing just their fifth game over that stretch, in four different cities). Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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05-01-21 | Pistons v. Hornets -6.5 | Top | 94-107 | Win | 100 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Charlotte minus the points over Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. I'm not sure the average bettor realizes how dire the Pistons injury situation is right now. Mason Plumlee, Jerami Grant and Cory Joseph have all been ruled out for Saturday's game (among many others) while Hamidou Diallo, who has given them good minutes and production off the bench, is now listed as doubtful as well. Detroit hung around for a while against an undermanned Mavs squad on Thursday (Luka Doncic missed that game) but still fell by double-digits, despite shooting better than 50% from the field. Here, the Pistons will run into a Hornets squad that should certainly be in a foul mood following consecutive losses, as they continue to fight for a playoff spot in the East. Charlotte is of course dealing with injury issues of its own but it does appear Malik Monk and LaMelo Ball are at least close to returning, which should give the Hornets a bit of an emotional boost as they continue to push forward. Note that Charlotte checks in 16-7 ATS after losing two of its last three games this season and owns a 31-17 ATS mark following consecutive ATS losses over the last three seasons. There are plenty of trends supporting the Pistons here, and that certainly factors into the relatively short pointspread. But the fact is, Detroit has now dropped three of its last four games ATS with its lone victory over that stretch coming against a banged-up Hawks squad that was in letdown mode following a home upset win over the Bucks two nights earlier. Take Charlotte (10*). |
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04-30-21 | Magic v. Grizzlies UNDER 225 | 75-92 | Win | 100 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Orlando and Memphis at 8:10 pm et on Friday. |
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04-30-21 | Magic v. Grizzlies -10.5 | Top | 75-92 | Win | 100 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Memphis minus the points over Orlando at 8:10 pm et on Friday. The Grizzlies returned home from a long, successful road trip that ended with a thud (a blowout loss in Denver) and couldn't regain their footing in a blowout loss at the hands of the Blazers, who were in a quick revenge spot, two nights ago. Here, I expect Memphis to fare much better as it draws a favorable matchup against the lowly Magic. Orlando is actually coming off a rare win but that came against the Cavs. The Magic have now won consecutive games ATS but I think that's about as much as we can expect from this team that's simply playing out the string at this point. Orlando certainly isn't looking to force the issue down the stretch, taking a cautious approach with both Michael Carter-Williams and Terrence Ross, who are nursing minor injuries but likely to sit again on Friday. The Grizzlies were actually favored against the Blazers two nights ago but probably shouldn't have been (hindsight is 20/20 of course) as they were playing on just one day of rest following an extremely difficult seven-game road trip. We should see the Grizz come out with much fresher legs tonight and that should result in a far better shooting performance after they were held to 42% shooting against Portland. The Magic held the Cavs to 40.2% shooting last time out but check in allowing 118.8 points per game when playing in a game with a posted total 220 points or higher, as is the case here. The Grizzlies have shown the ability to tighten things up following a bad loss, allowing just 107.9 points per game after a double-digit home loss over the last two seasons. They should be able to get loose in this one against a Magic squad that prior to their last game had allowed five of their last six opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field and three consecutive opponents shoot 54% or better. The Magic took the most recent meeting in this series but that was last March. We haven't got a real picture of just how wide the gap has grown between these two squads here in 2021 but we should see it in the front half of this home-and-home series on Friday night. Take Memphis (10*). |
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04-29-21 | Pelicans v. Thunder OVER 230.5 | 109-95 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New Orleans and Oklahoma City at 9:10 pm et on Thursday. |
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04-29-21 | Pelicans -9 v. Thunder | Top | 109-95 | Win | 100 | 9 h 8 m | Show |
NBA Blowout Game of the Week. My selection is on New Orleans minus the points over Oklahoma City at 9:10 pm et on Thursday. The Pelicans may appear to be in a tough situation on paper as they play the second of back-to-back nights off a two-point loss in Denver last night. However, they're actually in the same three-in-four situation as the Thunder and catch Oklahoma City in a letdown spot off an upset win in Boston two nights ago - the team's first victory since back on March 31st against the Raptors. In order to secure that win, the Thunder needed to shoot better than 48% from the field - their best shooting performance since April 10th against the 76ers (a game they lost by 24 points). Keep in mind, Oklahoma City is averaging just 106.5 points per game on 45.5% shooting here at home this season. Playing at a much quicker pace lately they can certainly turn this into a track meet but that should only serve to stretch out the margin. The Pelicans are bringing the proper level of intensity to the floor every night, having shot 47.1% or better from the field in five straight games, shooting north of 53% in three of those contests. Last night's game ended a streak of three straight contests holding their opposition to 43.6% shooting or worse. Note that the Pelicans check in ranked eighth in the league in opponents effective field goal percentage over their last three games. They rank tops in the league in floor percentage this season. Oklahoma City hasn't fared well as a home underdog this season, going 9-20 ATS, outscored by 12 points on average. They're also 3-11 ATS the last 14 times they've come off a non-conference game, outscored by an average margin of 15.9 points, and that's exacerbated further by the fact that they're in for an obvious letdown off the win over what seemed to be a disinterested Celtics team. This wouldn't appear to be an easy game for the Pelicans to get up for until you realize that Oklahoma City took the last meeting in this series by a single point as an eight-point underdog in New Orleans back on January 6th. The Pelicans may have overlooked the Thunder in that one after they took the first meeting here on this floor by 33 points on December 31st. Take New Orleans (10*). |
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04-28-21 | Lakers v. Wizards UNDER 226 | Top | 107-116 | Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Washington at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. These two teams were involved in a track meet in Los Angeles back in February as they combined to score 251 points in a Wizards upset win. I'm anticipating a much lower-scoring affair this time around. The Wizards have been beating up on some bad defensive teams in recent weeks. They enter this game having scored at least 117 points in nine straight games but consider that seven of those contests came against the Kings, Pelicans, Pistons, Thunder (twice), Cavs and Spurs - a who's who of the league's worst defensive squads. Here, they'll face a Lakers team that checks in allowing just 104.8 points per game on 45.6% shooting away from home this season, with the 'under' cashing at a 19-11-1 clip. Since getting Anthony Davis back on the floor, Los Angeles has held each of its last three opponents to 48.8% or worse shooting after previously allowing two of its last three opponents to shoot better than 56% from the field. While the Lakers are coming off a 114-point performance against the lowly Magic two nights ago, they've actually been held to fewer than 98 points in six of their last 15 games which can be considered a real streak of offensive futility in today's NBA. Note that the 'under' has gone 14-5 with the Lakers playing on the road off an ATS loss this season with those games totaling an average of just 212.7 points. The 'under' is also 26-13 the last 39 times the Lakers have been seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent in which they allowed 110 or more points, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 214.0 points. With Los Angeles revenging a home loss against an opponent under the guidance of head coach Frank Vogel they've seen an average total of just 215.1 points in 27 previous opportunities. Take the under (10*). |
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04-27-21 | Thunder v. Celtics -11.5 | 119-115 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston minus the points over Oklahoma City at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. We haven't faded Oklahoma City much during its current 3-14-1 ATS slide but I will do so on Tuesday as the Thunder limp into Boston following back-to-back losses by 20+ points. Boston is expected to be without Kemba Walker and Jayson Tatum but I don't expect it to roll over in their absence. The Celtics are coming off an 0-2 trip to Brooklyn and Charlotte which included an ugly 21-point rout at the hands of the Hornets on Sunday afternoon. Note that Boston checks in a perfect 9-0 ATS the last nine times it has come off a double-digit road loss, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by a whopping average margin of 17.2 points in that situation. The C's average north of 125 points per game in that spot and should be able to feast on a Thunder squad that have allowed their last two opponents to shoot 51.6% and 54.7% from the field. Despite Sunday's poor showing, the Celtics are fairly locked-in defensively, having held five of their last eight opponents to 45.6% or worse shooting. Note that Oklahoma City averages just 94 points and loses by an average margin of 17.2 points when playing on the road after giving up 120 points or more this season. The Celtics took the first matchup in this series this season by 17 points in Oklahoma City back on March 27th and I expect a similar outcome here. Take Boston (10*). |
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04-26-21 | Grizzlies +4 v. Nuggets | 96-120 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on Memphis plus the points over Denver at 9:10 pm et on Monday. This would appear to be a pretty obvious fade spot for the Grizzlies as they wrap up a long, successful seven-game road trip with a second stop in Denver in less than a week. However, the Grizz have done nothing but impress and off another big performance in a win over the Blazers yesterday, I look for them to keep it rolling on Monday. While this is certainly a tough back-to-back spot for Memphis, it is worth noting that it managed its starters minutes well in yesterday's game, with no one playing more than 30 minutes. Jonas Valanciunas just returned yesterday after missing time due to a concussion so he should have fresh legs for this one. The Grizz know they can hang with the Nuggets having taken Denver to overtime (without Valanciunas and Dillon Brooks) just last week. Meanwhile, Denver was already without Jamal Murray and is now missing key secondary scorer Will Barton as well. The Nuggets shot the lights out in a lopsided win over the lowly Rockets on Saturday but that actually sets them up poorly here, noting they've gone 6-17 ATS the last 23 times they've come off a 55% or better shooting performance, outscored by an average margin of 4.3 points in that spot. They're also just 23-38 ATS after scoring 120 points or more over the last three seasons, outscored by 0.5 points on average in that situation. The Grizzlies are quite simply the hottest bet in the league and locked in defensively right now, having held their last three opponents to 45.2%, 47.9% and 37.1% shooting. Take Memphis (10*). |
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04-26-21 | Suns v. Knicks UNDER 215 | 118-110 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Phoenix and New York at 7:40 pm et on Monday. This is a very low total by today's NBA standards but it's warranted in my opinion. The Suns don't get enough credit for their defense. They check in allowing just 108.4 points per game on 46.1% shooting this season but will need to refocus after a real flat performance in Brooklyn yesterday, allowing 128 points in a lopsided defeat. Note that the 'under' has gone 19-9 with the Suns coming off an 'over' result, as is the case here, over the last two seasons. Perhaps yesterday's lull was to be expected as they simply couldn't ratchet up the intensity following a two-day layoff which came on the heels of three games in four nights on the road against the Bucks, 76ers and Celtics. I do expect a solid bounce-back performance here, noting that Phoenix has allowed just 106.6 points per game following an ATS loss this season. Despite its defensive exploits, New York has seen the 'over' cash in six of its last seven games overall. Keep in mind, it has held five of seven opponents to fewer than 110 points over that stretch, which is an accomplishment by today's NBA standards. The Knicks check in allowing 105.6 points per game on 44.7% shooting at home this season. The 'under' has gone 19-9 the last 28 times the Knicks have come off an outright win as an underdog, as is the case here as they were inexplicably +1 against the Raptors on Saturday. That situation has produced just 109.4 total points on average over the last two seasons. With the Suns eager to get on a plane to head home at the end of a tough five-game road trip and the Knicks rested and ready playing their fifth game of a six-game homestand following a day off on Sunday, I'm not anticipating any sort of track meet on Monday night. Take the under (10*). |
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04-26-21 | Hawks v. Pistons OVER 217 | Top | 86-100 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Monday. We cashed our free play on the 'under' in the Hawks upset win over the Bucks last night (we also won our premium play on Atlanta) but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'over' as Atlanta heads to Detroit to face the Pistons on Monday. While losing Trae Young to a knee injury certainly struck a serious blow to the Hawks offensive prospects, the cupboard is by no means bare, as we saw in last night's come-from-behind victory over the Bucks. With the likes of Clint Capela, Bogdan Bogdanovich, Danilo Gallinari, Kevin Huerter and Lou Williams, the Hawks are still a formidable offensive squad and they should be able to have their way with the Pistons, who are in for some regression after holding their last two opponents to 46.2% and 41.7% shooting. Note that Detroit has still allowed three of its last five opponents to shoot 48.8% or better from the field. It has had no answers for the Hawks in a pair of meetings this season, giving up 128 and 123 points. Note that the 'over' has cashed in six of the last eight meetings in this series. While I do have a lot of respect for the Hawks defense, as I noted in my analysis of yesterday's plays on Atlanta and the 'under', this is obviously a letdown spot playing their second of back-to-backs in a very winnable matchup with the Pistons. I'm not sure we'll see the Hawks bring the same level of defensive intensity we saw against the Bucks last night. Note that Detroit shot just 40.6% from the field but still managed to score 109 points in an up-tempo affair in Indiana two nights ago. I'm expecting another fairly fast-paced contest here, noting that the Pistons have had little success slowing the pace of their opponents, yielding at least 92 field goal attempts in five of their last seven games. The 'over' has gone 16-6 with the Pistons coming off consecutive ATS losses over the last two seasons, with that situation producing an average total of 222.3 points. Meanwhile, Atlanta checks in having allowed 119.2 points per game following consecutive ATS wins over the last three seasons, with that spot producing an average total of 231.3 points. Take the over (10*). |
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04-25-21 | Bucks v. Hawks +6.5 | 104-111 | Win | 100 | 11 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over Milwaukee at 7:40 pm et on Sunday. Most have written off the Hawks with Trae Young out for an indefinite period with an ankle injury. However, Atlanta thrived in its first game without its superstar, delivering a 118-103 win over the Heat on Friday. Here, the Hawks catch the Bucks in a somewhat favorable spot with Milwaukee its second of back-to-back games after wrapping up a two-game sweep of the 76ers with a blowout win yesterday afternoon. While the Hawks lost Young, they did recently get Danilo Gallinari back from injury while Clint Capela could also return on Sunday, although I'm making this play assuming he can't go. The Bucks shot the lights out in the last two games against an undermanned 76ers squad but prior to that they had shot worse than 49% from the field in seven straight games. Note that they're just 18-32 ATS when on the road after scoring 115 points or more in their last game over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of just 3.3 points in that spot. They hadn't been playing tough defense at all prior to yesterday's win and certainly caught a big break in that one with the Sixers missing both Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid in what amounted to a throwaway game for Philadelphia. The Hawks have been an underrated defensive team all season and check in having held 11 of their last 13 opponents to worse than 49% shooting. They're allowing just 110 points per game on 45.4% shooting at home this season. The Hawks will have revenge on their minds in this one having dropped both previous meetings against the Bucks this season, including a 120-109 setback in a poor all-around showing at home on April 15th. Note that the Hawks are 25-14 ATS at home revenging a loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by 1.8 points on average in that situation. Better still, they're 18-7 ATS when at home revenging a double-digit loss against an opponent, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 3.7 points. Take Atlanta (10*). |
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04-25-21 | Cavs v. Wizards -9.5 | Top | 110-119 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
NBA Blowout Game of the Month. My selection is on Washington minus the points over Cleveland at 7:10 pm et on Sunday. The Wizards are absolutely rolling right now, taking full advantage of a favorable schedule to reel off seven straight wins, going 6-0-1 ATS along the way. I expect them to keep it rolling against the lowly, undermanned Cavs on Sunday. Cleveland was already in for a bit of a letdown after shooting better than 51% in each of its last two games, but now will be without its top offensive threat in Collin Sexton due to a concussion. While I'm a fan of Darius Garland, the budding star isn't capable of shouldering the entire load with a poor supporting cast around him. Keep in mind, the Cavs were already without Taurean Prince, who had been giving them solid minutes and offensive production before going down to injury last week. The Wizards certainly haven't been playing down to the level of competition lately, delivering blowout wins against the Kings, Pistons and Thunder (twice) during their current winning streak. Note that the Wizards are an excellent positive momentum play having gone 8-1 ATS when coming off a double-digit win this season. Meanwhile, the Cavs are a miserable 9-19 ATS as a road underdog this season, outscored by an average margin of 10.9 points. Washington is absolutely locked in defensively right now, having held its last five opponents to 43.4% or worse shooting - an incredible stretch of defensive dominance by today's NBA standards. This will be the first meeting between these two teams this season after the Cavs took a 113-108 decision against a much different Wizards squad here in Washington last February. Take Washington (10*). |
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04-25-21 | Grizzlies v. Blazers UNDER 235.5 | Top | 120-113 | Win | 100 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
NBA Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Memphis and Portland at 4:10 pm et on Sunday. We saw a wild, high-scoring affair between these two teams on Friday night as the Grizzlies outlasted the Blazers by a 130-128 score - easily eclipsing the total. We're dealing with an even higher total this time around and I believe it will prove too high in Sunday's rematch. Note that the 'under' has gone 17-4 the last 21 times the Grizzlies have come off a game that totaled 245 points or more, with that situation producing just 219.4 total points on average. We've also seen the 'under' cash at a 28-10 clip after the Grizzlies allow 120 points or more over the last two seasons, with an average total of just 220 points in that spot. While the Grizzlies are certainly rolling along offensively, I'm not sure they want to tempt fate with another track meet here in Portland. A slower pace may serve them well here, noting that Portland is not an elite shooting team by any means, having shot 49.0% or worse from the field in 12 straight games entering Sunday's contest. Meanwhile, the Grizzlies shot a blistering 53.1% on Friday night, but will be playing their sixth game in the last 10 days, in five different cities, on Sunday afternoon. The Blazers have responded favorably following poor defensive efforts recently. After allowing an opponent to shoot 50% or better from the field, they've held their next opponent to 44.2%, 35.3%, 45.3% and 44.3% shooting going back to late March. Note that the 'under' has gone 8-1 after the Blazers score 120 points or more in a game this season, with that situation producing an average total of just 219.5 points. While the 'over' has now cashed in three straight meetings in this series, the 'under' is actually 2-1 in the last three matchups here in Portland. Take the under (10*). |
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04-24-21 | 76ers v. Bucks UNDER 230 | 94-132 | Win | 100 | 8 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Milwaukee at 3:40 pm et on Saturday. We won with the 'over' in this matchup on Thursday but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' in Saturday's rematch in Milwaukee. There are obviously injury concerns for the 76ers after Joel Embiid was forced to leave Thursday's game and Ben Simmons missed it entirely due to an illness he's been battling over the last week. That game started as a track meet but did slow down in the second half with just 104 points scored. We saw some shooting anomalies in that one as Shake Milton was 8-of-14 for 20 points for the 76ers while Bobby Portis came off the bench to shoot 9-of-11 for 23 points for the Bucks. Philadelphia allowed Milwaukee to shoot north of 55% from the field in that game but I expect it to punch back here on Saturday, noting that it has seen the 'under' go a perfect 3-0 the last three times it has allowed opponents to shoot better than 50% from the field. Note that the 76ers have held opponents to 45.8% shooting on the road this season, with the 'under' cashing at a 19-11 clip. The 'over' has cashed in the Bucks last three games, their longest such streak since mid-March. I look for a reversal of that trend here noting that the 76ers have allowed just 107.7 points per game after losing four or five of their last six games ATS over the last three seasons, with those contests totaling an average of just 221.8 points. Also note that Philadelphia averages just 107.0 points per game when revenging a road loss against an opponent over the last two seasons with those games totaling an average of 219.5 points. Look for today's total to prove too high. Take the under (10*). |
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04-23-21 | Nuggets -2 v. Warriors | Top | 97-118 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
NBA on ESPN Game of the Year. My selection is on Denver minus the points over Golden State at 10:10 pm et on Friday. Most were quick to write off the Nuggets after they lost Jamal Murray for the season to a torn ACL, interestingly enough in a game right here in San Francisco against the Warriors earlier this month. Instead of hanging their heads, the Nuggets have reeled off four straight victories with Nikola Jokic leading the way in his MVP-worthy campaign. While Denver has gone 0-8 ATS when on the road revenging a loss against an opponent this season, I think this one is a little different. The Nuggets certainly haven't forgotten that 116-107 loss here on April 12th and I'm confident they'll make amends for it with the Warriors in a tough spot, returning home following an eastern road trip that saw them start strong but finish poorly, blowing a fourth quarter lead in an eventual loss to the Wizards two nights ago. Here, Golden State will be playing its seventh game in the last 12 nights, in six different cities. It very much looked like a team that was running out of gas in Washington, shooting worse than 40% from the field against a below-average Wizards defense. The Nuggets will be playing their sixth game in the last 12 nights, but in just four different cities. They're set up well here, noting they've gone 21-9 ATS after losing at least two games in a row ATS over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 10.2 points per game in that situation. Meanwhile, the Warriors have gone a miserable 1-10 ATS after winning five or six of their last seven games ATS over the last two seasons, outscored by an average margin of 11.1 points in that spot. The Nuggets are locked in at both ends of the floor right now, having outrebounded each of their last five opponents while holding eight straight opponents to worse than 50% shooting, a strong defensive run by today's NBA standards. Denver checks in ranked fourth in the league in floor percentage over its last four games while Golden State sits bottom-six in that category over the same stretch. The Nuggets are also top-five in extra scoring chances per game over their last three contests while the Warriors rank 29th. You get the picture. Take Denver (10*). |
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04-22-21 | 76ers v. Bucks OVER 225 | Top | 117-124 | Win | 100 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
NBA Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and Milwaukee at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. The most recent meeting between these two teams was a defensive slugfest (by today's NBA standards) that totaled just 214 points and saw both teams shoot right around 40% from the field. I don't expect to see anywhere close to that level of defensive intensity on Thursday, however, as the 76ers head to Milwaukee to play the second of back-to-back nights after a closer-than-expected loss against the Suns. I say closer-than-expected because the Sixers were without the services of both Tobias Harris and Ben Simmons. Joel Embiid did everything he could to will his team to victory, pouring in 38 points and nearly tying the game on a last-second desperation full-court heave. Here, all bets are off as far as who will be in the lineup for Philadelphia. Harris and/or Simmons could be back but I wouldn't be all that surprised if Embiid sat. Regardless, I'm anticipating a high-scoring affair. The Bucks are coming off a tough 128-127 overtime loss to the Suns three nights ago. They've now allowed their last two opponents to shoot 54.8% and 48.1% from the field and have seen the 'over' cash in six of their last nine games overall, including each of the last two. Note that the 'over' has gone 18-10 in Bucks home games this season. The 76ers have posted a 14-4 o/u record when coming off a loss by six points or less over the last two seasons. In fact, they've recorded a 32-19 o/u mark off a loss of any kind over that stretch. Meanwhile, the Bucks have seen the 'over' cash at a 20-10 clip after a game in which they score 120 points or more this season, with those contests totaling an average of 236.3 points. We're working with a much lower posted total than we saw in the last meeting between these two teams. That has a lot to do with the injury situation for both teams, with Giannis Antetokounmpo also not a certainty to play on Thursday (he's currently listed as probable). Regardless who plays and who doesn't, I'm anticipating a high-scoring contest. Take the over (10*). |
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04-21-21 | Grizzlies v. Clippers UNDER 227.5 | 105-117 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Memphis and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Grizzlies got off to a blazing start against the Nuggets two nights ago but when Denver decided to play a little defense, Memphis wilted in the fourth quarter, scoring just 21 points and allowing the Nuggets to force overtime in an eventual loss for the Grizz. Here's where Memphis' schedule gets really tough as it plays its fourth game in the last six nights, in four different cities and coming off a game played at altitude in Denver. I don't think we'll see all of those shots dropping for the Grizz the way they did two nights ago. Note that the 'under' has gone 27-10 in the Grizzlies last 37 games after allowing 120 points or more in their last game with those contests totaling an average of 219.9 points. Meanwhile, the Clippers are back home after a one-point victory over the Dame-less Blazers last night in Portland. Even with Kawhi Leonard sidelined, they're still an elite defensive team and they're absolutely locked in at that end of the floor right now, having held five straight opponents to 45.8% or worse shooting. Of course, the Clips could be catching the Grizzlies at the right time with both Jonas Valanciunas and Dillon Brooks questionable to play on Wednesday night. Even if they do play, I still expect this one to stay 'under' the total, just as five of the last nine meetings in this series have, including the most recent one - a 119-99 Clippers victory in Memphis back on February 26th. Take the under (10*). |
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04-21-21 | Jazz v. Rockets UNDER 227.5 | Top | 112-89 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Utah and Houston at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Rockets had their six-game 'over' streak snapped in their 113-91 loss in Miami two nights ago, and I look for an 'under' streak to present itself as they return home to host the Jazz on Wednesday night. Utah entered its last game off an uncharacteristically poor defensive effort against the Lakers on Saturday but that shouldn't have come as a surprise as it was essentially a throw-away game with a number of key cogs sitting out due to rest. The Jazz answered back with a stellar defensive performance in the back half of that two-game set against the Lakers, allowing just 97 points on 43.0% shooting in Monday's victory. Save for a few outliers, the Jazz have been incredibly locked in defensively and check in having held seven of their last 10 opponents to 45.1% or worse shooting - a real accomplishment in today's NBA. Meanwhile, the Rockets have quietly held three straight opponents under 49% shooting - an accomplishment in their own right given how this season has gone. Offensively, however, the Rockets are in tough right now, having shot 47.0% or worse from the field in five of their last seven games. They're not getting secondary scoring right now, which is no surprise with guys like Danuel House and Sterling Brown sidelined. John Wall and Christian Wood can only do so much. Note that the Jazz and Rockets both find themselves in the league's bottom-four in terms of floor percentage over their last three games. The Rockets rank last in the league in that category here at home this season. Utah surprisingly checks in 28th in the league in extra scoring chances per game while Houston isn't much better, sitting in 21st. It's also worth noting that Houston and Utah rank seventh and eighth, respectively, in block percentage. I do think the Rockets will be able to run their offense in this game, with Utah ranking 29th in the league in steals per game, but how many good looks they'll be afforded is another matter entirely. Note that the 'under' has gone 25-11 with the Rockets giving up 110 points or more in three straight games over the last two seasons, with those contests totaling an average of 225.1 points. The Rockets average just 104.6 points per game when at home revenging a double-digit road loss this season, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 218.6 points. The lone previous meeting between these two teams totaled just 213 points back on March 12th and each of the last four meetings in Houston have stayed 'under' the total. Take the under (10*). |
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04-21-21 | Suns -1 v. 76ers | Top | 116-113 | Win | 100 | 7 h 19 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Philadelphia at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. I really wanted to back the 76ers in this game but the more I look into the matchup, the more I like the Suns. Of course, what was originally keeping me from getting behind Philadelphia was its injury/illness concerns with Tobias Harris and Ben Simmons questionable to play. While it is likely at least one of the two will be good to go for this one, I'm still not sure it will be enough, and question how much they would really contribute here. The Suns are in an obvious letdown spot off the overtime win over the Bucks in Milwaukee two nights ago, but letdowns have been few and far between for this team this season, particularly on the road where they check in 18-7, outscoring opponents by 4.0 points per game. The Suns are a terrific positive momentum play, having gone 17-5 ATS on the road after scoring 115 points or more in their last game over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 4.9 points in that situation. They're also an incredible 21-5 ATS after winning two of their last three games this season, outscoring opponents by a whopping 11.0 points per game in that spot. The 76ers are quite simply out of rhythm right now, barely getting by an undermanned Clippers squad last Friday night before falling to the Warriors in a 107-96 decision on Monday. They shot a miserable 42.2% and 39.3% in those two games, respectively. We've seen the Sixers fall in a number of step-up spots here at home in recent weeks. While they check in 22-6 SU at Wells Fargo Arena this season, half of those losses have come since March 17th. Phoenix has taken each of the last two meetings in this series, including a 120-111 win at home back on February 13th. Take Phoenix (10*). |
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04-20-21 | Magic v. Hawks UNDER 219.5 | Top | 96-112 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
NBA Southeast Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Orlando and Atlanta at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday. When these two teams last met on March 3rd, they combined to score 227 points in a three-point Hawks win in Orlando. The Magic are a completely different team now, however. Note that Orlando got a combined 77 points from the trio of Nik Vucevic, Michael Carter-Williams and Terrence Ross on that night. Vucevic is of course now playing in Chicago while Carter-Williams and Ross will both miss tonight's game due to injuries. Orlando does figure to show a bit of pride and play defense in this one after allowing the Raptors and Rockets to shoot 50% or better from the field in its last two games. The Magic have actually been slightly better defensively on the road this season compared to at home, allowing 111.7 points per game on 47.1% shooting. We won with the 'over' in the Hawks last game - a double-digit victory over the Pacers on Sunday. This game sets up much differently against a much slower-paced and undermanned Magic squad. The Hawks are fairly locked in defensively right now, holding five straight opponents to worse than 49% shooting. They've been an underrated defensive team all season, in fact, particularly here at home, where they've held opponents to 45.5% shooting. With a much tougher game looming against the Knicks in New York tomorrow night, this could certainly be a game where we see Atlanta manage minutes, especially with a a number of key cogs still missing due to injury, including Danilo Gallinari, one of its most underrated offensive threats. Take the under (10*). |
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04-19-21 | Grizzlies v. Nuggets -5 | Top | 137-139 | Loss | -113 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
NBA Non-Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Denver minus the points over Memphis at 9:10 pm et on Monday. We won with the Grizzlies in their outright underdog victory in Milwaukee on Saturday night but I won't hesitate to switch gears and fade them here as they head to Denver in what I consider a throw-away game. Note that Memphis has now won three of its last four games SU and four in a row ATS but will be without Jonas Valanciunas due to a concussion on Monday and could also be missing Dillon Brooks, among others. This is a tough scheduling spot for the Grizz as they still have four games left on their current road trip, with a four-game in six-night stretch on deck. Meanwhile, the Nuggets lost Jamal Murray for the season with a torn ACL last week but proceeded to reel off consecutive wins in blowout fashion over the Heat and Rockets. While Memphis is playing its fourth game in the last six nights, in four different cities, this will be just the Nuggets third game in the last six nights, with two of those contests coming here at home. Denver checks in 18-10 at Ball Arena this season, outscoring opponents by six points per game. The Nuggets have taken consecutive meetings in this series in Denver, going 1-0-1 ATS along the way. Take Denver (10*). |
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04-19-21 | Suns v. Bucks -141 | Top | 128-127 | Loss | -141 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
NBA Moneyline Game of the Month. My selection is on Milwaukee (moneyline) over Phoenix at 8:10 pm et on Monday. We won by fading the Bucks on Saturday in their outright loss to the Grizzlies here at home. Milwaukee hasn't won a game here at home since March 24th but I look for it to put an end to that skid on Monday night against Phoenix. Despite its recent struggles, Milwaukee is still 18-9 at home this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of seven points per game. The Suns check in having cooled off offensively, shooting 47.9% or worse in three of their last four games while allowing their last two opponents to shoot better than 50% from the field. Coming off six straight games in which it has shot worse than 50% from the field, I look for some positive regression to the mean for Milwaukee here. The Bucks shouldn't be down on themselves as they have Giannis back healthy and have actually managed to win three of their last four games, scoring 124, 130 and 120 points in those three victories. They know they can hang with the Suns after suffering a narrow one-point loss in Phoenix back in February. The last time these two teams met in Milwaukee, the Bucks cruised to a 21-point victory last season. Take Milwaukee moneyline (10*). |
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04-18-21 | Pacers v. Hawks OVER 234.5 | Top | 117-129 | Win | 100 | 4 h 11 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Indiana and Atlanta at 1:10 pm et on Sunday. The Bucks didn't give Trae Young any good looks in Thursday's 120-109 Hawks loss here at home and as a result he shot 3-of-17 from the field, ultimately keeping us from cashing our 'over' ticket by a bucket. Here, I look for Young to fare much better as we should be in for a track meet between the Pacers and Hawks. Indiana hoisted up 105 field goal attempts in an eight-point loss in Utah on Friday, shooting a miserable 39% from the field. I'm willing to chalk that poor shooting up to a tough scheduling spot with a rare early weekday game in altitude, no less. Here, I'm confident we'll see the Pacers bounce back, noting that they average 115.4 points per game on 47.2% shooting on the road this season. The 'over' has gone 14-4 the last 18 times the Hawks have played at home off a double-digit home loss, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 238.3 points. The Hawks have also posted a 12-3 o/u record when revenging a double-digit home loss against an opponent (Indiana defeated Atlanta 121-113 here in February) with that spot averaging a total of 237.4 points. With that Hawks shooting 47.6% or worse in three straight games, they'll be eager to get back on track offensively and should be afforded that opportunity against a Pacers squad playing their third straight game on the road and fourth game in the last six days, in four different cities. Take the over (10*). |
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04-17-21 | Grizzlies +8.5 v. Bucks | Top | 128-115 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
NBA Underdog Game of the Week. My selection is on Memphis plus the points over Milwaukee at 9:10 pm et on Saturday. The Grizzlies will have revenge on their minds after they suffered a heart-breaking last-second loss against the Bucks on their home floor back on March 4th and I like their chances of taking Milwaukee down to the wire again here. While the Bucks are back home following a three-game road trip (in which they went a perfect 3-0) and had an off day yesterday, this is still a tough scheduling spot as this will be their 11th game since March 29th, in nine different cities no less. The Grizzlies are in a back-to-back spot, making the short trip from Chicago, but had the benefit of a three-game homestand prior to that. Of course, Memphis has been playing excellent basketball, having gone 13-3 ATS over its last 16 games. The Grizzlies have certainly been a streaky team and set up well here given their 14-5 ATS mark after winning consecutive games ATS this season, outscoring opponents by 3.9 points on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Bucks check in just 21-33 ATS when coming off three more more consecutive victories over the last two seasons. I'll also point out that the Grizzlies have been outscored by an average margin of just 0.5 points when coming off a game in which they gave up 115 points or more, as is the case here off last night's 126-115 win in Chicago. Memphis has certainly held its own against the Bucks, going 3-2 ATS in the last five meetings, including an outright victory in its last trip to Milwaukee. Take Memphis (10*). |
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04-17-21 | Warriors v. Celtics UNDER 228 | 114-119 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Boston at 8:40 pm et on Saturday. We won with the 'under' in the Warriors win over the Cavs on Thursday night and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here in Boston on Saturday. Note that the 'under' has gone a perfect 8-0 with the Warriors playing their third road game in five days this season, with those contests totaling an average of just 216.3 points. The 'under' has also gone 21-9 with the Warriors playing as a road underdog of six points or less, with those games reaching an average total of just 217.7 points. Note that while the Warriors are known for their offense, they can play some defensive as well. Golden State has held five straight opponents to 48.3% or worse shooting, with the 'under' going 3-2 over that stretch. For Boston's part, it has given up just 106.1 points per game after winning four or five of its last six games over the last two seasons, with that situation producing an identical average total of just 217.7 points. The Warriors offense is red hot right now with Steph Curry going off on a nightly basis but the Celtics will pose a stiff defensive test. Boston is locked in defensively right now, having held nine straight opponents to 49.4% or worse shooting, including limiting five opponents to 44.9% or worse over that stretch. The C's check in allowing 108.9 points per game on 45.8% shooting at TD Garden this season with the 'under' going 16-11 along the way. Finally, it's worth pointing out that each of the last two meetings between these teams in Boston have stayed 'under' the total. Take the under (10*). |
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04-16-21 | Knicks v. Mavs UNDER 211 | Top | 117-109 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
NBA on ESPN Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Dallas at 9:30 pm et on Friday. When these two teams met in Manhattan earlier this month they combined to score just 185 points in a double-digit Mavericks victory. I'm not anticipating a whole lot more offense in this one but we've only seen a minor adjustment to the total with the previous matchup seeing a closing total of 212.5. The Knicks actually check in off consecutive 'over' results. Here, we find the 'under' has gone 10-1 when they come off consecutive games in which they scored 110 points or more over the last two seasons, with those games averaging just 210.1 total points. We've also seen the 'under' go 18-6 with the Knicks coming off an outright underdog victory (New York won as a 2.5-point underdog in New Orleans last time out) over the last two seasons with that situation producing just 207.3 total points on average. Note that the Knicks are allowing just 102.3 points per game when playing with same-season revenge this season, as is the case here as noted above. For their part, the Mavs have posted a 10-15 o/u record at home this season where they've inexplicably scored fewer points per game compared to on the road. While Luka Doncic's last-second heroics were the story, the Mavs got back in Wednesday's game against the Grizzlies thanks to some tough defensive play, limiting Memphis to 47.2% shooting. Only two of Dallas' last 16 opponents have shot better than 50% from the field and the Knicks don't figure to approach that number as they average just 103.7 points per game on 44.6% shooting on the road this season, with the 'under' cashing at an 18-11 clip. Take the under (10*). |
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04-16-21 | Clippers v. 76ers OVER 221 | 103-106 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Philadelphia at 7:10 pm et on Friday. The first meeting between these two teams produced 234 points back on March 27th in Los Angeles and I believe the total will prove too low again on Friday night. The 76ers had their five-game 'under' streak snapped in Wednesday's 123-117 win over the undermanned Nets. After a stretch of six consecutive games holding the opposition to 49.4% or worse shooting, the Sixers have now allowed two of their last three opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field. Note that they've allowed 110.7 points per game at home this season, with those contests totaling an average of 228.5 points. The Clippers are coming off an ugly 100-98 win in Detroit two nights ago - a clear sandwich spot between a stop in Indiana to open the three-game trip and this contest tonight. Prior to that game, the Clips had seen the 'over' cash in three straight contests. While the Clips may not have the services of Kawhi Leonard again tonight, that has certainly been factored into this total. Note that Los Angeles averages 118.5 points per game when coming off an ATS loss over the last two seasons, with those games totaling an average of 226.3 points. After shooting an abysmal 39.8% against a bad Pistons squad two nights ago, we can anticipate a strong bounce-back performance from the Clips offense here, noting that the 'over' has cashed in three of the last five meetings in this series. Take the over (10*). |
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04-16-21 | Clippers v. 76ers -2.5 | Top | 103-106 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Los Angeles at 7:10 pm et on Friday. Some will be expecting a letdown from the 76ers here as they come off Wednesday's wire-to-wire win over the Nets but I don't see it happening. Perhaps that game wasn't quite as big as it could have been as Brooklyn didn't have the services of two-thirds of its 'big three', Kevin Durant and James Harden. Here, the Sixers host another elite opponent but do so knowing they've taken each of the last two meetings in this series in Philadelphia, but also with revenge on their minds following a 10-point loss against the Clippers in Los Angeles back on March 27th. The Clippers have already locked up a winning three-game road trip thanks to victories in Indiana and Detroit. Now they're in a tough spot, playing their fourth game in the last six nights, in four different cities, with another three-in-four spot up next beginning Sunday at home against Minnesota. It's still unknown whether the Clips will have Kawhi Leonard back in the lineup for Friday night's game. I would lean toward him playing but still like the 76ers in that situation. Note that Philadelphia is 12-1 ATS in its last 13 games as a home favorite of six points or less, outscoring the opposition by 12.3 points on average in that spot. The 76ers are also 21-9 ATS when playing at home following an ATS loss, as is the case here after Wednesday's win but non-cover against the undermanned Nets, outscoring opponents by 8.1 points per game in that situation. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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04-15-21 | Warriors v. Cavs UNDER 224.5 | Top | 119-101 | Win | 100 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Cleveland at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. We missed the mark (badly) with the 'under' in the Warriors rout of the undermanned Thunder last night but I'm willing to go back to the well with the same play here, as I don't expect another peak offensive effort from Golden State in this, the second installment of a five-game road trip. Note that while it has been overshadowed by its recent offensive outbursts, the Warriors are playing some excellent defensive basketball right now, having held their last four opponents to 110 points or less and 48.3% or worse shooting (that qualifies as solid defensive basketball in today's NBA). The 'under' is a perfect 7-0 with the Warriors playing the second of back-to-back nights this season with that situation producing just 211.1 total points on average. The 'under' is also 9-1 after the Warriors win three of their last four games ATS this season with that situation producing 215 total points on average. The Cavs have scored less than 110 points in back-to-back games and have plenty of what I would call 'possession killers' in their lineup right now. They've shot 48.7% or worse from the field in three straight games and are one of the slowest-paced teams in the league this season. With this being the Warriors third game in the last four nights (in three different cities), I'm not anticipating a track meet. Take the under (10*). |
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04-15-21 | Bucks v. Hawks +4.5 | 120-109 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over Milwaukee at 7:40 pm et on Thursday. There are injury concerns on both sides leading into this game with the status of Giannis and Trae at the top of every bettor's mind. Based on early line movement there's a good chance we'll see Giannis sit once again while Trae will likely give it a go, but I do like the Hawks regardless of the injury situation in this spot. Milwaukee is coming off back-to-back SU and ATS wins to open its current road trip but it's worth noting it hasn't put together a three-game ATS winning streak since way back in February. The Bucks are playing a wide-open style right now and while it has flustered their last two opponents (two overmatched teams in the Magic and Timberwolves) I believe the Hawks will do just fine. After holding their last two opponents to 37.2% or worse shooting we can certainly anticipate some regression from Milwaukee defensively here. Meanwhile, the Hawks are riding high off three straight wins (both SU and ATS) but still have plenty of room for improvement after shooting 45.2% and 47.6% from the field in their last two contests - both coming on the road against the Hornets and Raptors. Note that Milwaukee checks in 11-20 ATS the L31 times it has come off consecutive games scoring at least 110 points. The Bucks are also just 9-19 ATS the L28 times they've been in a three games in five days situation on the road, outscoring opponents by just 1.1 points per game in that spot. Take Atlanta (10*). |
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04-15-21 | Bucks v. Hawks OVER 230 | 120-109 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and Atlanta at 7:40 pm et on Thursday. This play obviously goes hand-in-hand with my play on the Hawks plus the points against the Bucks on Thursday night. Milwaukee has settled into a true up-tempo style in the absence of Giannis and that should suit the Hawks just fine on Thursday night as they won't shy away from a track meet. Note that the 'over' has gone 13-4 the last 17 times the Bucks have played on the road following consecutive ATS victories over the last two seasons with that situation producing an average total of 236.6 points. Meanwhile, the Hawks have seen the 'over' cash at a 43-26 clip in their last 69 games as a home underdog with those contests totaling an average of 233.7 points. While Atlanta has major injury concerns, most notably involving superstar Trae Young, I would expect him to be back in the lineup on Friday with two full days off on deck before the Hawks play again on Sunday against Indiana. Even if he doesn't play, the pace alone should afford Atlanta a good opportunity to hang a crooked number on the scoreboard, noting that it averages 116.2 points per game when playing at home seeking revenge for a double-digit loss over the last two seasons (Milwaukee took the first meeting between these two teams by a 129-115 score back on January 24th). Finally, note that the 'over' has cashed in three of the last four matchups between these two teams in Atlanta. Take the over (10*). |
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04-14-21 | Mavs -2 v. Grizzlies | Top | 114-113 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
NBA Southwest Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Dallas minus the points over Memphis at 9:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Mavs are coming off consecutive home losses against the Spurs and 76ers with the latter coming in embarrassing form in a lifeless effort two nights ago (in front of a national audience on ESPN, no less). It shouldn't be difficult for the Mavs to get back up for this one-game road trip to Memphis on Wednesday and they're set up well to get back in the win column. Note that Dallas is 18-6 ATS in its last 24 games as a road favorite of six points or less, outscoring the opposition by 9.2 points per game in that situation. The Mavs are also a solid 39-25 ATS when coming off an ATS loss over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 5.3 points per game in that spot. The Grizzlies check in averaging just 106.2 points per game when playing at home after winning five or six of their last seven games ATS this season and should have hard time keeping up with the a Mavs squad that has inexplicably been better both offensively and defensively on the road compared to at home this season. Note that Dallas averages 118 points per game when playing on the road off consecutive ATS losses, as is the case here, over the last three seasons. Dallas took the first meeting in this series this season by 10 points back on February 22nd and has won two of its last three trips to Memphis, both SU and ATS. Take Dallas (10*). |
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04-14-21 | Warriors v. Thunder UNDER 223.5 | 147-109 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Oklahoma City at 9:10 pm et on Wednesday. We've won with the 'under' in each of the Thunder's last two games having anticipated they would play with some pride defensively following a truly awful stretch of basketball at that end of the floor. While that didn't exactly hold true in Saturday's blowout loss against the 76ers, we did see Oklahoma City holds its own in a tough matchup in Utah last night, holding the Jazz to 41.9% shooting in a 10-point loss. The Thunder are having a tough time offensively right now, having been held under 45% shooting in six of their last seven games overall. Lugenz Dort found a cheat code and went off for 42 points in last night's game in Utah but isn't likely to repeat that performance here. Note that the Thunder average just 106.3 points per game on 45.5% shooting at home this season. The Warriors roll into OKC off back-to-back wins. Note that they average just 104.1 points per game after winning two or more games in a row ATS this season with that situation producing just 217.8 total points on average. The 'under' checks in a perfect 9-0 with the Warriors having posted three ATS wins in their last four games this season with that spot producing an average total of only 210.4 points. Of course, the Warriors have been a lower-scoring team in general on the road this season, posting a 9-18 o/u mark. Take the under (10*). |
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04-13-21 | Heat v. Suns UNDER 217 | 86-106 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Phoenix at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. This matchup pits two of the league's better defensive teams in my opinion and I believe we might be in for a bit of an old school, playoff-like game on Tuesday night. Keep in mind, the first time these two met this season was back on March 23rd, when the Suns cruised to a 110-100 win in Miami, staying 'under' the posted total. We're actually dealing with a higher total this time around, undoubtedly as a result of the Suns high-scoring ways of late. Phoenix has put up north of 120 points in five of its last seven games overall. Keep in mind, sprinkled in that stretch were two games where Phoenix was held to 102 and 103 points in regulation time against the Jazz and Clippers, respectively (we played the 'under' in both of those games and only failed to go 2-0 due to overtime against Utah). Phoenix has played a lot of basketball here in April with this being its seventh game in 13 nights. I'm not convinced we'll see another peak offensive performance like we saw last night against the lowly Rockets. Miami has allowed more than 110 points just once in its last eight games and checks in allowing just 105 points per game on 44.4% shooting on the road this season. While both meetings between these two teams in Phoenix have gone 'over' the total over the last three seasons, they haven't matched up here in quite some time. Note that the 'under' has gone a perfect 7-0 when the Heat play on the road off consecutive wins this season with those contests totaling just 193.7 points on average. Take the under (10*). |
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04-13-21 | Celtics v. Blazers -1 | Top | 116-115 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
NBA on TNT Game of the Month. My selection is on Portland minus the points over Boston at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Blazers should be in a foul mood when they take the court on Tuesday night after suffering a disappointing 107-98 loss at home against the defensive-minded Heat on Sunday. While the Blazers have certainly been scuffing their heels lately, dropping three of their last four games overall, I'm confident we'll see them bounce back against the resurgent Celtics on Tuesday. Note that Portland has outscored the opposition by 5.3 points per game when playing at home off an ATS loss over the last three seasons. Meanwhile, the Celtics have averaged just 105.4 points per game and have been outscored by 2.4 points per contest when coming off a win by 15 points or more this season, as is the case here. Boston delivered that blowout win on Sunday, rallying against what appeared to be a very disinterested Nuggets squad (Denver scored just eight fourth quarter points in the loss). Portland couldn't have played much worse, particularly at the offensive end of the floor, against the Heat on Sunday. I don't think the Blazers will have any trouble getting up for this nationally-televised game at home before heading on the road for a two-game trip to San Antonio and Charlotte. Portland has lost a number of games against marquee opponents here at home lately and I think that's why this line is as short as it is. Thi sis a 'put up or shut up' game of sorts and I'm confident we'll see Damian Lillard take charge and lead the Blazers to a strong bounce-back performance. Take Portland (10*). |
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04-13-21 | Thunder v. Jazz UNDER 223 | Top | 96-106 | Win | 100 | 10 h 55 m | Show |
NBA Northwest Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Oklahoma City and Utah at 9:10 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the 'under' in the Thunder's most recent game - a 117-93 home loss to the 76ers on Saturday. That 'under' result snapped a somewhat improbable three-game 'over' streak for Oklahoma City. I say improbable as the Thunder have been absolutely decimated by injuries and simply don't have the personnel in place to compete in track meets right now. I feel that this game sets up similarly to Utah's relatively low-scoring blowout win over the Cavaliers here in Salt Lake City back on March 29th. We won with the 'under' on that night and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Utah should be in a foul mood tonight after letting one slip away against the Wizards last night. After scoring 42 first quarter points the Jazz might have got caught already checking the game off in the win column as the Wizards rallied and ultimately snapped Utah's long home winning streak. Of course, the Jazz are more than capable of bouncing right back tonight, and I expect it to come on the strength of a strong defensive effort after allowing the Wiz to shoot better than 52% from the field last night. Note that Utah allows just 104 points per game on 43.4% shooting at home this season. The Thunder, meanwhile, have been ripped for 129 points or more in four of their last six games overall but as I noted on Saturday, we should see them at least play with some pride moving forward. They shot 50% from the field in Saturday's loss - the first time they reached that mark since way back on March 14th. I wouldn't count on a repeat performance here. Note that the 'under' has gone 42-22 in Oklahoma City's last 64 games as a road underdog with those contests totaling an average of just 216.8 points. The Thunder have actually been a better defensive team on the road than at home this season, allowing 110.9 points per game on 46.3% shooting. Note that the Jazz have allowed just 103.8 points per game this season when playing their third consecutive game at home. Finally, the 'under' has cashed in each of the last four meetings between these two teams in Utah. Take the under (10*). |
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04-12-21 | Bulls v. Grizzlies UNDER 230.5 | Top | 90-101 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
NBA Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Memphis at 9:10 pm et on Monday. We missed the mark with the 'under' in the Grizzlies track meet loss against the Pacers last night but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Memphis was baited into a frenetic pace against Indiana last night and simply couldn't keep up in an eventual 132-125 loss. I expect a different type of game to unfold on Monday as both the Bulls and Grizzlies check in off losses, and in back-to-back spots. Note that the 'under' has gone 8-1 when the Grizzlies play at home after losing two of their last three games this season with those contests totaling just 213.1 points on average. We've also seen the 'under' go 26-10 the last 36 times Memphis has given up 120 points or more in a game, as is the case here, with those games producing an average total of 220.8 points. For the Bulls, this will be their 10th game in the last 17 nights, in 10 different cities! They still managed to shoot better than 51% from the field in last night's loss in Minnesota but I expect them to have a tough time matching that mark tonight. The Grizzlies have held opponents to 46.6% shooting at home this season and 46.9% or worse shooting in six of their last eight games overall. Off last night's poor defensive effort against the Pacers, I expect them to make a bit of a statement here. For the Bulls, they'll simply be looking to keep within arm's reach as they attempt to steal one at the end of a long road trip. Note that each of the last two meetings in this series in Memphis have stayed 'under' the total. Take the under (10*). |
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04-11-21 | Pacers v. Grizzlies UNDER 233 | Top | 132-125 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
NBA Revenge Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Indiana and Memphis at 8:10 pm et on Sunday. Indiana took the first meeting between these two teams in a wild 134-116 affair back on February 2nd. I'm expecting this rematch to be much lower-scoring than that, however, noting that the Grizzlies have allowed just 108 points per game when at home revenging a same-season loss against an opponent over the last three seasons, with those contests totaling an average of just 217.5 points. Also note that the 'under' has gone a perfect 7-0 when the Grizzlies play at home after winning five or six of their last seven games ATS this season with those games totaling an average of just 210.3 points. The 'under' is also 15-3 when the Grizzlies come off a very high-scoring game totaling 245 points or more, as is the case here, over the last two seasons, with those contests producing an average of just 218.8 points. For their part, the Pacers have posted a 1-8 o/u record after attempting 90 shots or more in consecutive games this season and they've played to an average total of 225.4 points after consecutive games where 215 points or more were scored this season. It's interesting to note that the Grizzlies have actually been a lower-scoring team at home than on the road this season, recording a 9-17 o/u mark here in Memphis with those games totaling an average of 220.8 points. Take the under (10*). |
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04-10-21 | 76ers v. Thunder UNDER 218.5 | 117-93 | Win | 100 | 10 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Oklahoma City at 9:10 pm et on Saturday. The 'over' has somewhat inexplicably cashed in each of the Thunder's last three games despite the fact that they've scored just 108, 102 and 102 points with a number of key cogs out of the lineup due to injuries. They are expected to get some help with the expected return of Al Horford tonight although I think that supports them more at the defensive end of the floor than offensively. The 76ers are coming off an ugly 101-94 loss in New Orleans last night. They've now shot 46.6% or worse in five of their last six games overall with the 'under' going 5-1 over that stretch. They could be without Joel Embiid tonight, which obviously doesn't help matters. Note that the 'under' has gone 29-16 after the Thunder are involved in a game totaling 225 points or more over the last two seasons. The 'under' is also 18-8 after Oklahoma City is involved in three straight games totaling 215 points or more over the last two seasons. Take the under (10*). |
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04-09-21 | Rockets +12 v. Clippers | Top | 109-126 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Houston plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Friday. This is a 'name your score' type of game for the Clippers but as we know from recent history, they don't always fare that well in that type of situation. We cashed the Magic in an outright underdog victory in a similar spot on March 30th. On that night, the Clippers were also playing the second of back-to-backs and also coming off consecutive games in which they shot 50% or better from the field. Here, we find Los Angeles coming off a victory over the Suns last night (we won with the 'under') - their third consecutive SU and ATS win. Note that the Clips have allowed 116.7 points per game when playing at home off consecutive ATS wins as a favorite over the last three seasons, outscoring the opposition by just 1.8 points per game in that situation. They've also gone just 8-21 ATS the last 29 times they've played at home off three consecutive home victories, outscoring opponents by just 1.6 points on average in that spot. Meanwhile, the Rockets have actually been playing some competitive basketball lately, going 4-3 ATS over their last seven contests, including an upset win over the Mavericks two nights ago - a game in which Dallas did put forth a quality effort with a full roster and no limits on minutes even though it was the front half of a back-to-back. The Rockets won't have John Wall on Friday night after he poured in 31 points on Wednesday but they also didn't have him two games back when they gave the Suns all they could handle in a narrow 133-130 loss. As bad as the Rockets have been at times this season, they've still only been outscored by 5.5 points per game on the road. I'm not sure how interested the Clippers will be in laying a beatdown here while Houston has shown that it hasn't quit on the season despite its miserable record. Take Houston (10*). |
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04-09-21 | Grizzlies v. Knicks UNDER 214.5 | 129-133 | Loss | -112 | 13 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Memphis and New York at 7:40 pm et on Friday. This is a fairly low posted total by today's NBA standards but I feel it's warranted. The Grizzlies are coming off consecutive 'over' results, scoring a whopping 124 and 131 points in the process. They'll face a tough test here though, noting that the Knicks have allowed just 104.7 points per game on 44.7% shooting at home this season. The 'under' has gone 14-10 in Knicks home games this season. Also note that the 'under' has gone a perfect 8-0 when New York comes off a road loss by three points or less over the last three seasons, with those games totaling an average of just 194.4 points. We've also seen the 'under' cash at an 18-8 clip after the Knicks have lost four of their last five games over the last two seasons with those contests totaling an average of just 207.6 points. This is the tail-end of a four-game road trip for the Grizzlies and it will be their fifth game in the last eight nights, in five different cities no less. After shooting 54.8% and 53.9% in their last two games I would certainly anticipate some regression from the Memphis offense here. On the flip side, the Grizz have been locked in defensively, holding five of their last six opponents to 44.7% shooting or worse. Take the under (10*). |
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04-09-21 | Grizzlies v. Knicks +2 | Top | 129-133 | Win | 100 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
NBA Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on New York plus the points over Memphis at 7:40 pm et on Friday. The Knicks are in a bit of a lull right now, having lost five of their last six games but it's worth noting that four of those five games were played on the road and three of those losses almost certainly could have gone either way. While this looks like an awfully tough matchup on paper with the Grizzlies coming in off four straight victories, including a perfect 3-0 start to this current road trip, I expect New York to be up for the challenge. Note that the Grizz have caught a couple of favorable situations on this trip with the 76ers sitting Joel Embiid last Sunday and the Hawks missing a number of key cogs on Wednesday. After shooting a blistering 54.8% and 53.9% over their last two games, I'm certainly anticipating some offensive regression from the Grizzlies here, as they face a Knicks squad that allows just 104.7 points per game on 44.7% shooting at home this season. Note that New York is 10-1 ATS at home with the line set between +3 and -3 this season, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 8.9 points in those contests. Also note that the Knicks have outscored opponents by 3.7 points per game following a loss by six points or less this season, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the Grizz have been outscored by 2.5 points per game when playing on the road after winning four or five of their last six games over the last three seasons. Take New York (10*). |
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04-08-21 | Suns v. Clippers UNDER 223 | Top | 103-113 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
NBA on TNT Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Phoenix and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Thursday. We missed the mark with the 'under' in the Suns win over the Jazz last night, which was truly a bad beat as only 204 points were scored in regulation time. Here, I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play as Phoenix plays in a back-to-back spot against the Clippers in Los Angeles. After shooting better than 51% from the field in four straight games, the Suns shot just 44.6% last night and I would expect some continued regression against a good Clippers defense that allows just 108.4 points per game on 46.1% shooting at home this season. The Clips, like last night's opponent the Jazz, are locked in defensively right now having limited three of their last four opponents to 41.3% or worse shooting. For its part, Phoenix has allowed just one of its last 13 opponents to shoot better than 50% from the field. The Suns have been every bit as good defensively on the road as at home, giving up 107.7 ppg on 45.9% shooting. Note that the 'under' is 29-15 when the Suns play on the road following an 'over' result over the last three seasons. Take the under (10*). |
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04-07-21 | Jazz v. Suns UNDER 225.5 | Top | 113-117 | Loss | -107 | 14 h 1 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Utah and Phoenix at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. The lone previous matchup between these two teams this season took place back on New Year's Eve, with the Suns posting a relatively low-scoring 106-95 win in Utah. We're dealing with a higher posted total this time around (the closing total on December 31st was 219) but I'm not sure it's warranted. Yes, Phoenix is on fire (no pun intended) offensively right now, having scored 140 and 133 points in its last two games. Those offensive outbursts weren't overly surprising, however, as they came at the expense of the injury-riddled Thunder and lowly Rockets. Concerning was the fact that they allowed Houston and its generally-inept offense to shoot better than 54% from the field last time out. Phoenix is obviously a better defensive team than that and should rise to the occasion in this showdown with the first-place Jazz, noting that the Suns allow just 107.7 points per game on 45.4% shooting at home this season and had held 11 straight opponents to below 50% shooting prior to that game against the Rockets. I mentioned the Suns offense - they've shot better than 51% from the field in four straight games heading into tonight's contest - their longest streak of that sort this season. They'll be hard-pressed to keep it going here against a Jazz defense that has been locked in lately, holding 10 consecutive opponents to 48.3% or worse shooting. Utah allows 111.2 ppg on 46.2% shooting on the road this season. Note that the Suns have allowed just 104.6 ppg following an ATS loss this season, with those games totaling an average of 219.8 points. Meanwhile, the Jazz have posted a 119-143 o/u record following an ATS loss under the guidance of head coach Quin Snyder, with those contests totaling an average of 204.7 points (that trend does back a little further than I would like but is still worth noting). Finally, the 'under' has cashed in each of the last three meetings between these two teams. Take the under (10*). |
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04-06-21 | Grizzlies v. Heat -193 | 124-112 | Loss | -193 | 10 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami (moneyline) over Memphis at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. To put it simply, this moneyline price has no business being under -200 on Tuesday night, so we'll jump in with a play on the Heat to win straight-up. Keep in mind, Miami was favored on the road when it faced the Grizzlies back on March 17th, losing that game by an 89-85 score which started off an ugly six-game slide. You can be sure the Heat have had this game circled on their calendar since. Miami is playing much better now, having won four games in a row. It's obvious that they're serious about the task at hand right now as they easily could have overlooked the lowly Cavaliers on Saturday but instead delivered a spread-covering 14-point victory, holding Cleveland to just 101 points in the process. The Heat are essentially as healthy as they've been all season right now and host a Grizzlies squad that is without a few key cogs. Memphis delivered a stunning 16-point win in Philadelphia on Sunday but that was essentially a throw-away game for the 76ers, playing on back-to-back nights just a couple of days removed from a long road trip. Doc Rivers managed his starters minutes carefully in that game and sat Joel Embiid. Prior to that victory the Grizzlies had won just two of their last five games and those victories came against the lowly Rockets and T'Wolves. Note that Miami is 7-1 SU when at home revenging a same-season loss against an opponent this season. The Heat have taken each of their last two home meetings with the Grizzlies. Take Miami moneyline (9*). |
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04-05-21 | Pistons v. Thunder UNDER 213 | Top | 132-108 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Oklahoma City at 7:10 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams will be missing key cogs on Monday night as a matchup that would have been pretty ugly to begin with gets even uglier. Mason Plumlee has been ruled out for the Pistons due to scheduled rest. Meanwhile, the Thunder are missing a handful of key contributors, most notably Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Oklahoma City is coming off consecutive drummings at the hands of the Suns and Blazers on Friday and Saturday, allowing a whopping 140 and 133 points in those two setbacks, respectively. I do expect the Thunder to at least show some pride and play a little defense on Monday and this is a favorable matchup to do so with the Pistons having been held to 101 points or less in three of their last five games. In fact, going back to March 13th, Detroit has been held under 100 points on five different occasions, which is pretty staggering by today's high-scoring NBA standards. The Pistons are coming off a blowout loss at home against the Knicks on Sunday in a game that was never competitive. It is worth noting that they've allowed just 104.1 points per game when coming off a double-digit home loss this season. Also note that the 'under' is 8-1 when the Thunder come off three straight games totaling 215 points or more this season, with those contests reaching an average total of just 206.5 points. The last meeting between these two teams in Oklahoma City produced just 209 points last February. The argument can certainly be made that both offenses are far worse off now than they were then. Take the under (10*). |
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04-04-21 | Lakers v. Clippers OVER 215 | Top | 86-104 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
NBA on ABC TV Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between the Lakers and Clippers at 3:40 pm et on Sunday. The 'under' has cashed in each of the Lakers last five games and eight of their last nine overall. We've also seen the 'under' cash in the Clippers last two contests with a number of bodies in and out of the lineup. I believe we're set up for a higher-scoring affair on Sunday, however. Coming off rare consecutive losses, I certainly expect to see the Clippers rebound here after a couple of days off to reset. Note that they average 120.7 points per game when coming off a loss over the last two seasons, with those contests totaling an average of 229.3 points. The Lakers have seen the 'under' cash at a 32-16 clip after losing five or six of their last seven games ATS over the last three seasons, as is the case here, however, those contests have totaled an average of 221.8 points, north of the reasonably low total we're working with today. Los Angeles has some positive momentum here after scoring 115 points in a rout of Sacramento two nights ago. Bettors will likely be hesitant to back the 'over' here due to the notable absences on both teams, particularly the Lakers. That's just fine as it keeps the total in a very reasonable range. Take the over (10*). |
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04-03-21 | Thunder +11.5 v. Blazers | 85-133 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oklahoma City plus the points over Portland at 10:10 pm et on Saturday. We'll plug our nose and back the undermanned Thunder as they face the Blazers in Portland on Saturday night. Of course, Oklahoma City was routed by 37 points in Phoenix last night but that was against a Suns squad that is absolutely rolling right now. Here, the Thunder catch the Blazers playing their sixth game in the last 10 nights, in five different cities. The Blazers certainly looked like a tired team last night against Milwaukee, shooting 36.4% from the field while allowing the Bucks to shoot 54.4%. While Portland will certainly be eager to bounce back tonight, it's unlikely the Thunder will draw a great deal of motivation considering the Blazers already exacted revenge on the Thunder for an earlier-season home loss by winning by double-digits in Oklahoma City back on February 16th. The Blazers rarely blow anyone out here at home, where they've outscored the opposition by just 2.1 points per game this season. The Thunder check in 15-5 ATS when playing on the road off a double-digit loss over the last three seasons, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.7 points in that situation. Meanwhile, Portland is a woeful 1-8 ATS at home after allowing 115 points or more in its last game this season, outscored by 7.9 points per game in that spot. Take Oklahoma City (10*). |
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04-03-21 | Mavs v. Wizards +6 | Top | 109-87 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Washington plus the points over Dallas at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. I thankfully laid off my potential fade of the Mavs last night as they ended up defeating the Knicks by double-digits in New York. Here, I will go to the well with a fade of streaking Dallas, however, as it might struggle to find the proper level of motivation to draw on in the final installment of what has been a successful five-game road trip. The Mavs lone loss on the trip came one week ago tonight in New Orleans in a game where they sat both Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis. While I certainly expect both to play here, it wouldn't be outside the realm of possibility that Luka at the very least could be given another night off in this back-to-back situation - but we'll operate under the assumption that he does play. The Wizards didn't show up to play in Thursday's 29-point blowout loss in Detroit. You really do have to pick your spots wisely when it comes to the Wiz, but when they do show up motivated, you can generally count on a competitive game and I do expect them to step up here at home against the Mavs. Note that as poorly as things have gone in general for the Wiz in recent years, they've actually been outscored by just 0.2 points per game in their last 96 games played here at home. Meanwhile, the Mavs have outscored opponents by an average margin of just 1.3 points when coming off a win over the last two seasons and here they check in off three consecutive victories. Washington is in a favorable situation here as it has gone 19-9 ATS after losing consecutive games ATS over the last two seasons, actually outscoring the opposition by 0.3 points per game in that spot. Take Washington (10*). |
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04-02-21 | Bulls v. Jazz UNDER 224.5 | 106-113 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Utah at 9:10 pm et on Friday. We've won with the 'under' in each of Utah's last two games but also cashed a ticket with the 'over' in its win over the Grizzlies last Friday night. Of course, it's been an emotional week for the Jazz after their plane was forced to make an emergency landing after hitting the flock of birds shortly after taking off on its way to Memphis. As a result, Donovan Mitchell ended up staying back in Utah while the Jazz delivered a 111-107 win over the Grizzlies on Wednesday. The 'under' has now cashed in five of Utah's last seven games overall. The Bulls have seen the 'under' cash in eight of their last 11 games and they enter this contest on the heels of five consecutive losses, including three in a row to open this road trip. While Zach LaVine remains questionable to play on Friday I would operate under the assumption he won't be able to go in this one. After allowing their last three opponents to shoot 50% or better I expect Chicago to focus on playing better defense here, noting that it has allowed 110.8 points per game when playing on the road after a game where 225 points or more were scored, well below its season average for points allowed per game. Meanwhile, the Jazz are giving up just 102.9 points per game after scoring 105 points or more in three straight games this season and enter this game fairly locked-in defensively, having held six straight opponents to 46.7% or worse shooting from the field. Finally, note that the 'under' has cashed in three of four meetings in this series over the last three seasons. Take the under (10*). |
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04-02-21 | Bulls +12.5 v. Jazz | Top | 106-113 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
NBA Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Utah at 9:10 pm et on Friday. I'll grab the generous helping of points with the Bulls here, even with the assumption that Zach LaVine won't be in the lineup. Chicago fell just short in Phoenix two nights ago as Devin Booker absolutely went off in a five-point Suns victory. Now at the tail-end of this four-game road trip, Chicago will be looking to at least salvage some positive momentum before returning home. Of course, that's a tall task against the league-leading Jazz. However, this has been a bit of an emotionally-draining week for Utah after its plane headed for Memphis was forced to make an emergency landing after hitting a flock of birds shortly after taking off. Donovan Mitchell was particularly shaken up following the experience and didn't make the trip to Memphis. Utah ended up getting past the Grizzlies by four points in a game where we won with the 'under'. The Bulls are in a good spot here, noting that they've gone an incredible 20-5 ATS when coming off a loss by six points or less over the last two seasons. They're also 10-2 ATS when playing on the road after scoring 115 points or more in their last game this season, outscoring opponents by 5.5 points per game in that spot. There's really not much negative we can say about the Jazz as they've been dominant this season. I simply feel this is a spot where they're simply looking to keep their winning streak intact rather than win by margin. Take Chicago (10*). |
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04-01-21 | Warriors v. Heat -124 | 109-116 | Win | 100 | 11 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami (moneyline) over Golden State at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. Miami's slump appears to be over as it returns home off consecutive low-scoring wins over the Knicks and Pacers on the road. While this isn't an ideal spot playing on back-to-back nights against a rested Warriors squad, I do look for the Heat to come through with the win. Rather than lay the points we'll back them on the moneyline here. Note that Miami has gone 8-2 SU when playing at home revenging a road loss against an opponent this season, outscoring the opposition by 8.4 points on average in that spot. Meanwhile, Golden State check in a miserable 1-7 SU when playing on the road after scoring 115+ points in its last game, outscored by 7.2 points per game in that situation. I like the fact that the Heat are finally getting some consistent production from Tyler Herro and Duncan Robinson, both of whom had been slumping. After delivering a signature performance in a win over the Knicks earlier this week, Jimmy Butler took a bit of a backseat last night, contributing 18/5/4 in Miami's win over the Pacers. Look for him to take on a more significant role against Steph Curry and the Warriors tonight. Take Miami moneyline (10*). |
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04-01-21 | Magic v. Pelicans OVER 220 | Top | 115-110 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Orlando and New Orleans at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. There's some question as to whether Zion Williamson will be able to play in this one after spraining his thumb on Monday night against Boston. While I do think there's a good chance he'll be on the floor with the Pelicans needing every win they can get in the playoff push, even if he can't go, I still like the way this one sets up as a high-scoring affair. We of course won with the Magic in Tuesday's upset win over the Clippers. We saw Orlando come into its own a little bit offensively in that one, scoring 66 second half points while getting a boost from the return of sharp-shooter Terrence Ross. Meanwhile, the Pelicans are coming off an upset win of their own, securing a 115-109 victory in Boston on Monday. That marked their third straight 'under' result. Note that the 'over' has gone a perfect 12-0 when the Pelicans come off an outright underdog win over the last two seasons with those contests totaling an average of 243.5 points. The 'over' has also gone 10-1 when the Pelicans play at home off an ATS victory this season with those games reaching an average total of 240.1 points. Meanwhile, the 'over' has gone 27-12 when the Magic play with the total set at 220 points or higher, as is the case here (at the time of writing). Take the over (10*). |
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03-31-21 | Jazz v. Grizzlies UNDER 230 | Top | 111-107 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
NBA Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Utah and Memphis at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. PLEASE NOTE: This total has dropped since it was made official that Donovan Mitchell will miss the game for the Jazz. I still like the play at the adjusted total. We've had a good read on Jazz totals lately, cashing with the 'over' in their win over the Grizzlies last Friday before hitting the 'under' in Monday's rout of the Cavs. Here, we'll stick with the 'under' as they head out on the road to face the Grizzlies for the third time in less than a week. If you follow my plays regularly you know that I'm a believe in familiarity lending itself to relatively low-scoring games, regardless the sport. While the two meetings between these two teams in Utah on Friday and Saturday both found their way 'over' the total, we're dealing with a higher number here (at the time of writing) and it's worth mentioning that three of their last four meetings in Memphis have stayed 'under' the total with the most recent meeting here totaling just 197 points. The Grizzlies check in averaging just 107 points per game after playing their last two games away from home over the last three seasons, with that situation producing an average total of just 215.1 points. It's interesting to note that the Grizzlies have actually been a higher-scoring team away from home compared to here in Memphis this season, where they average just 109.1 points per game. Not surprisingly, they've posted a 9-15 o/u record at home. The Jazz are absolutely locked in defensively right now, having held four of their last five opponents to 40.6% or worse shooting. The Grizzlies did sting them for 114 and 110 points in their two matchups last weekend but I would look for that situation to correct itself here, noting that the Jazz have allowed just 106.3 points per game when coming off a double-digit win this season. Look for the Jazz to conserve a little energy if they can in this one with a five-game in seven-night stretch beginning on Friday. Take the under (10*). |
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03-31-21 | Blazers v. Pistons +7 | Top | 124-101 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
NBA Underdog Game of the Week. My selection is on Detroit plus the points over Portland at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. After an extended stay in Florida - a successful one at that - I think this might be a tough game for the Blazers to get up for on Wednesday night as they look to wrap up a perfect 4-0 eastern road swing. Portland has been a solid road team all season, going 14-9 SU and ATS, however it's been a dead heat in terms of scoring averages as it puts up 115.7 points per game while giving up, you guessed it, 115.7 points per game away from home. Also note that the Blazers have been outscored by an average margin of 3.8 points per game after winning four or five of their last six games over the last two seasons. They've also been outscored by 2.9 points per game on average when coming off an ATS win over the last two seasons. For their part, the Pistons have been a solid spread team at home this season, going 12-9 ATS, outscored by just 1.5 points per game on average. They check into tonight's game having gone a profitable 7-3 ATS over their last 10 games overall. Note that Detroit owns a stellar 17-7 ATS mark after losing four of its last five games this season, as is the case here, actually outscoring the opposition by 0.4 points per game in that situation. With Portland looking forward to getting back home to host Giannis and the Bucks on Friday, look for the Pistons to keep this one competitive on Wednesday. Take Detroit (10*). |
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03-30-21 | Magic +11.5 v. Clippers | 103-96 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. Yes, the Magic cleared out over half of their starting five prior to the trade deadline last week but since then they've gone a perfect 2-0 ATS and now catch another favorable situation against the Clippers on Tuesday night. Los Angeles played through a number of key absences last night to rout the Bucks by 24 points. While the Clips have enjoyed tremendous success on the second of back-to-back nights this season, this is going to be an awfully tough one for them to get up for and when you factor in that they're also playing their third game in four nights, and off four consecutive double-digit wins, I can certainly see them taking a bit of a breather. The Magic have actually been outscored by just 1.9 points per game when coming off a road loss over the last three seasons. Meanwhile, the Clippers have outscored opponents by just 4.7 points on average when playing at home off an ATS win over the last three seasons. The Magic check in 29-16 ATS when playing on the road following four or five ATS wins in their last six games, as is the case here, outscored by just 2.1 points per game in that situation. Finally, Orlando could get a boost with the expected return of three-point specialist Terrence Ross on Tuesday as well. Take Orlando (10*). |
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03-29-21 | Cavs v. Jazz UNDER 222 | 75-114 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Utah at 9:10 pm et on Monday. This is obviously a game that the Jazz can all but circle as a win as they look for their 20th victory at home on Monday night. While I'm not interested in laying the boatload of points in a spot where Utah should be able to name its score, I will call for a lower-scoring game than betting marketplace is accounting for. Note that the Cavs are averaging just north of 98 points per game on the road this season and don't figure to bust out against one of the league's best defensive teams statistically speaking. Jarrett Allen was becoming a big part of what the Cavs do offensively, scoring in double-figures in five straight games before going down with a concussion against the Lakers on Friday. He won't play on Monday. While Utah is coming off consecutive high-scoring 'over' results against Memphis (we won with the 'over' in Friday's game), the Jazz are actually locked in defensively right now, having held four straight opponents to 45.4% or lower shooting, limiting three of those opponents to 40.6% or worse. Again, the Cavs don't figure to be the team to throw the Jazz off course. Utah did shoot 50% from the field in Saturday's win over the Grizzlies, but that only served to snap a skid of 10 straight games shooting worse than 49%. It's certainly something worth noting should the pace slow a bit in this one once the Jazz are able to build a sizeable lead. The 'under' has gone 57-39 when the Jazz host non-conference opponents under the guidance of head coach Quin Snyder, with those games totaling just 202.1 points on average. Likewise, the 'under' is 87-64 when the Jazz play at home off a win under Snyder, with those contests reaching an average of 202.9 total points. Take the under (10*). |
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03-29-21 | Pacers v. Wizards +5 | Top | 124-132 | Win | 100 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Washington plus the points over Indiana at 7:10 pm et on Monday. We saw this line open a little higher than expected with Bradley Beal questionable to play after exiting with a hip injury on Saturday. I would operate under the assumption that Beal won't play on Monday - should he be able to go that will serve as an added bonus. I like the spot for the Wizards regardless. There's no question this is a tough spot for the Pacers to get up for as they look ahead to a pair of much tougher home games against the Heat and Hornets later this week. Washington is coming off a 14-point rout of Detroit on Saturday night, shooting better than 46% from the field for a seventh consecutive game while holding the opposition to under 39% shooting for the second straight contest. While Washington is thought of as an Eastern Conference doormat, it has held its own here at home this season, going 11-12 ATS while being outscored by less than four points per game. The Pacers are outscoring opponents by just 0.6 points per game on the road this season. Indiana checks in off consecutive victories over the Pistons and Mavs but it's certainly worth noting that Dallas was without Luka Doncic in the latter contest. The Pacers check into a miserable spot here having gone a woeful 1-11 ATS after scoring 105 points or more in five straight games this season, outscored by six points per game in that situation. Meanwhile, the Wizards average an impressive 122.9 points per game playing at home off an ATS win this season, outscored by just 0.9 points on average in that spot. The Pacers are averaging 113 points per game overall this season but that average drops to 108.1 ppg when coming off a win over the last three seasons. Take Washington (10*). |
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03-28-21 | Suns v. Hornets OVER 220.5 | Top | 101-97 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 19 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Phoenix and Charlotte at 1:10 pm et on Sunday. Phoenix is coming off a low-scoring victory over the Raptors in Tampa on Friday, prevailing by a 104-100 score. The 'under' is now 4-1 in the Suns last five games overall. Meanwhile, the Hornets posted an 'over' result in Friday's win over the Heat. Still, the 'under' has gone 4-1 in their last five contests. Here, I'm anticipating a reversal of sorts as far as the recent 'under' trend goes for both teams. Note that the 'over' is 18-7 when the Suns have won four of their last five games over the last two seasons with those contests totaling an average of 228.1 points. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 8-1 when the Hornets come off three ATS wins in their last four games this season, with those games totaling 228.4 points on average. The first meeting between these two teams took place back on February 24th in Phoenix and totaled a whopping 245 points. Take the over (10*). |
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03-27-21 | Mavs v. Pelicans OVER 229.5 | 103-112 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Dallas and New Orleans at 9:10 pm et on Saturday. There's still some uncertainty as to whether Luka Doncic will play on Saturday night after missing last night's home game against the Pacers due to tightness in his back. That was more of a maintenance-related absence than anything else as far as I'm concerned and I expect to see Luka back on the floor in this second of back-to-backs for the Mavs. New Orleans played last night as well, suffering a home loss against the Nuggets. With both teams coming off subpar offensive showings last night I expect to see both bounce back with big performances on Saturday. Note that the 'over' has gone 12-2 when the Pelicans revenge a road loss against an opponent this season, with those games totaling 237.1 points on average. They've also posted a 16-6 o/u record after winning five or six of their last seven games ATS over the last two seasons, with those contests totaling an average of 239.7 points. The lone previous meeting between these two teams this season totaled a whopping 273 points. When they met last March they combined to score 250 points. Take the over (10*). |
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03-27-21 | Pistons v. Wizards UNDER 225.5 | Top | 92-106 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Washington at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams have been generally trending to the 'under' lately even though the Pistons are coming off consecutive 'over' results (the 'under' is 5-3 in their last eight games). I'm not anticipating a track meet as the Pistons and Wizards match up for the first time this season on Saturday. Note that Detroit averages a miserable 95.1 points per game when coming off six or seven ATS wins in their last eight games over the last three seasons, with those games totaling just 206.2 points on average. They also average just 104.4 points per game - below their current season scoring average of 107.3 ppg - after scoring 110 points or more in consecutive games over the last two seasons, with those contests totaling an average of 217.6 points. Washington isn't in top form offensively, having scored 113 points or less in three straight games. I'm not sure how easy it will be for the Wizards to get up for this matchup with the lowly Pistons on Saturday night. Take the under (10*). |
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03-26-21 | Grizzlies v. Jazz OVER 228 | Top | 114-117 | Win | 100 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Memphis and Utah at 9:10 pm et on Friday. As the total suggests, I'm anticipating a high-scoring affair between the Grizzlies and Jazz in Salt Lake City on Friday night. The Grizzlies have been a different team on the road compared to at home this season, averaging 3.4 points per game above their season scoring average in a visitors' role. Not surprisingly, the 'over' has cashed at a 9-7-1 clip when they play on the road compared to a 9-15 o/u mark at home. They enter this game off three consecutive ATS victories which sets up well for the 'over', noting that it has gone 12-3 when Memphis plays after consecutive ATS wins over the last two seasons, with those games totaling an average of 234.7 points. Of course, Utah boasts one of the most efficient offenses in the league. Even during a recent hiccup, the Jazz still continued to rack up the points and check into this one having scored 114 points or more in 13 straight games. That's even more impressive considering eight of those 13 games were played on the road. Here at home, Utah averages 117.8 points per game. It's worth noting that the Grizzlies have allowed 119.8 ppg as an underdog of between 6.5 and 12 points over the last two seasons. The last two meetings between these two teams have produced 238 and 239 total points. Take the over (10*). |
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03-26-21 | Nets -5.5 v. Pistons | Top | 113-111 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
NBA Blowout Game of the Week. My selection is on Brooklyn minus the points over Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Friday. We've made a habit of fading the Nets over the last week or so, cashing tickets against them with the underdog Magic last Friday night and the favored Jazz in what turned out to be a monster blowout on Wednesday. Here, I'll switch gears and back the Nets as they stay on the road to face the Pistons in Detroit on Friday. Brooklyn obviously has injury concerns but I would expect it to have James Harden back on the floor for Friday's game. According to head coach Steve Nash it sounded like Harden could have played on Wednesday in Utah but the team essentially treated that as a throw-away game on the second of back-to-back nights off a win in Portland on Tuesday. The Pistons check in off an ATS win in Indiana on Wednesday but that sets them up poorly here, noting they've gone 17-31 ATS off an ATS victory over the last two seasons, outscored by 6.5 points per game in that situation. Having dropped their last meeting with the Nets after staging an upset in their first matchup, I'll point out that they're 26-41 ATS when revenging a same-season loss against an opponent over the last three seasons, outscored by an average margin of 6.2 points in those contests. Take Brooklyn (10*). |
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03-25-21 | Blazers v. Heat UNDER 220 | Top | 125-122 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
NBA on TNT Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Portland and Miami at 7:40 pm et on Thursday. The Heat have gone ice cold offensively over the course of a four-game losing streak which seemingly came out of nowhere. If Miami is going to snap its skid on Thursday night, I believe it will have to lean on its defense, which has the potential to be one of the best units in the league. Note that Miami checks in having allowed just 106.8 points per game when coming off an ATS loss over the last three seasons, with those games totaling an average of 217.5 points. The Heat have been a positive momentum play from a defensive standpoint, having allowed just 104.3 points per game after consecutive 'under' results, with those contests totaling an average of just 213.6 points. Meanwhile, the Blazers have given up 109.9 points per game after allowing 110 points or more in three straight games over the last three seasons. That's not an impressive number on the face of it, but when you consider they give up an average of 115.5 points per game overall this season, it's worth noting. The 'under' has gone 19-7 in that situation over the last three seasons. It seems that outside of a 50-point outburst against New Orleans last week, Damian Lillard has been a little off his game since C.J. McCollum returned to the Blazers lineup. Expect some carry-over in the face of a tough defensive challenge against what should be a desperate Heat squad tonight. Take the under (10*). |
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03-24-21 | Nets v. Jazz -8.5 | 88-118 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Utah minus the points over Brooklyn at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. A lot of bettors got burned by the Nets last night, electing to fade them missing two of the big three against the Blazers in Portland. James Harden rose the occasion and Brooklyn pulled off the outright underdog win in that one. Now those same bettors might be quick to switch gears and back the Nets catching a generous helping of points in Utah tonight, especially with the Jazz returning home off a long road trip. I think that's the wrong move. Note that Brooklyn will be playing its fifth game in the last eight nights, in five different cities and three different time zones. That's not to mention the fact that it is without Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving while James Harden plays with a nagging neck injury (after being on the floor for 39 minutes last night). Utah has of course been one of the league's best bets this season, going 13-4 ATS as a home favorite, outscoring opponents by 13.6 points per game on average. I like the way the Jazz are set up here, noting that they've allowed just 100.6 points per game and outscored the opposition by 12 points per game after winning their previous contest by 20 points or more over the last three seasons. That's the case here after Utah closed out its road trip with a 25-point blowout win in Chicago on Monday. Take Utah (10*). |
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03-24-21 | Suns v. Magic OVER 213 | 111-112 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Phoenix and Orlando at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. We missed with the 'over' in the Magic's double-digit loss to the Nuggets last night. Despite Orlando's awful night offensively the game still ended up approaching the posted total. Tonight, I look for the Suns and Magic to eclipse what is a relatively-low total by today's NBA standards. Note that the Suns were also involved in a relatively low-scoring affair last night, posting a 110-100 win in Miami. Phoenix falls into an interesting situation here, as it has posted a 17-7 o/u record after winning four of its last five games over the last two seasons, with those contests totaling an average of 228.4 points. Meanwhile, the Magic are a solid negative momentum play defensively, supporting our cause with the 'over', as they give up 115.3 points per game after allowing 110 points or more in three consecutive games over the last two seasons. That situation has produced an average total of 222.8 points. I can certainly understand the logic behind the low posted total here as the first meeting between these two teams produced just 199 points in a Suns rout back on February 14th. Keep in mind, the last time these two teams met in Orlando they combined to produce a whopping 242 total points in a Magic upset victory last season. Take the over (10*). |
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03-23-21 | Nuggets v. Magic OVER 216 | Top | 110-99 | Loss | -113 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
NBA Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Denver and Orlando at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. Both of these teams are coming off 'under' results on Sunday but I look for a different story to unfold on Tuesday as the Nuggets and Magic square off in Orlando. Denver still managed to shoot 50% from the field in Sunday's home loss to the Pelicans - its third straight game shooting 50% or better. Of course, that's nothing out of the ordinary as the Nuggets have shot 50% or better from the field in seven of their last 10 games overall. Note that the 'over' has gone a perfect 8-0 when the Nuggets come off a home loss this season, with those games averaging 226.6 total points. We've also seen an average total of 223.6 points scored when the Nuggets come off consecutive ATS losses over the last two seasons. Orlando got bogged down in a matinee affair in Boston on Sunday, scoring just 96 points in a blowout loss. Keep in mind, in their most recent home game, the Magic scored 121 points in an upset win over the Nets (we won with Orlando in that contest). The Magic have been getting healthier and generally playing better basketball lately and should be able to take advantage of a Denver squad that ranks bottom-five in the league in both opponents' floor percentage and opponents effective field goal percentage over its last three games. Take the over (10*). |
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03-22-21 | Pacers v. Bucks UNDER 230 | Top | 113-140 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
NBA Central Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Indiana and Milwaukee at 9:10 pm et on Monday. There's a good chance that Giannis Antetokounmpo will be forced to miss Monday's game due to a nagging injury but that has only resulted in a slight shift in the total. After the first meeting between these teams sailed 'over' the total earlier this season, I believe the number will prove too high on Monday night. Note that the 'under' is 28-15 when the Pacers come off consecutive ATS wins over the last three seasons with those games totaling just 215.6 points on average. The Pacers average just 107.8 points per game after scoring 105 points or more in five straight games this season, as is the case here. That scoring average is well below their season average of 113.1 points per game. Likewise, with Indiana coming off of three straight games that reached 215 or more points this season, its next game has averaged just 220.7 total points, well south of the total we're dealing with tonight. The Bucks check in allowing just 103 points per game against division opponents over the last two seasons. After allowing 113 points in a win over a road-weary Spurs team that was playing the second of back-to-back nights on Saturday, and likely without Giannis in the lineup, I look for the Bucks to clamp down defensively in this one. Take the under (10*). |
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03-21-21 | Bulls -3 v. Pistons | Top | 100-86 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
NBA Central Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Chicago minus the points over Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Sunday. This is a fine bounce-back spot for the Nuggets after suffering consecutive losses against the Spurs and Nuggets. Both of those losses could have gone either way and there's certainly no reason for Chicago to hang its head following a four-point setback in Denver. Somewhat surprisingly, the Bulls are actually a better team on the road than at home this season, posting a 9-8 record and outscoring the opposition by 2.6 points per game. Note that Chicago is a stellar 14-2 ATS on the road after posting three wins in its last four games ATS over the last three seasons. As we've noted before, the Pistons are not a good revenge team, having gone 25-40 ATS revenging a same-season loss against an opponent over the last three seasons, outscored by an average margin of 6.1 points in that situation. They're also a miserable 3-13 ATS after posting consecutive ATS wins, as is the case here, outscored by 9.3 ppg in that spot. It's certainly worth mentioning that Detroit's last two wins came against a reeling Raptors squad and a dreadful Houston team. Take Chicago (10*). |
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03-21-21 | Magic +8.5 v. Celtics | 96-112 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando plus the points over Boston at 3:40 pm et on Sunday. The Magic have now won three straight and five of their last seven games ATS following a three-game ATS losing skid where many had left them for dead. We won with them in Friday's outright underdog win over the Nets and I won't hesitate to go back to the well here. Orlando has been a streaky team from an ATS perspective, having gone 19-5 ATS after winning four of its last five games ATS over the last three seasons, actually outscoring the opposition by 3.1 points on average in that situation. Boston has lost three consecutive games both SU and ATS and while most see this as a terrific bounce-back spot, I just think the Celtics might have a tough time getting fully focused on the Magic in a sleepy Sunday afternoon spot before heading out on the road for four games. Take Orlando (10*). |
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03-21-21 | Pacers v. Heat -195 | 109-106 | Loss | -195 | 4 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami (moneyline) over Indiana at 1:10 pm et on Sunday. The Pacers took the front-half of this two-game set in Miami but I look for the Heat to snap their two-game mini skid and post the victory on Sunday. Rather than lay the points here I'll pay the tariff to back the Heat on the moneyline. Note that Indiana hasn't won consecutive games since the second week of February. Similarly, the Heat haven't lost three games in a row since February 13th-17th and all three of those setbacks came on the road. Note that Indiana is 3-11 SU after scoring 110+ points in in two straight games this season. Meanwhile, Miami has gone a stellar 11-2 at home revenging a loss against an opponent this season. The Heat are a perfect 8-0 SU revenging a 20+ point loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by 9.7 points on average in that spot. Take Miami moneyline (9*). |
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03-20-21 | Hornets +9.5 v. Clippers | 98-125 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on Charlotte plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Saturday. This road trip hasn't gone as planned for the Hornets as they've dropped consecutive games by double-digit margins in Denver and here in Los Angeles (against the Lakers). I like the way they're set up to at least keep things competitive against the Clippers on Saturday, however. Note that Charlotte has gone 37-19 ATS off at least two losses in a row over the last three seasons, outscored by just 1.0 point per game in that situation. They're also an impressive 21-8 ATS after giving up 105+ points in three straight games over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by 0.7 points per game in that spot. As for the Clippers, they've outscored opponents by an average margin of just 5.9 points when returning home off a road game over the last three seasons. There's no reason for the Hornets to hang their heads here as they still have three games left on this road trip to turn things around. Meanwhile, I'm not sure how easy it will be for the Clips to get up for this two-game homestand against Eastern Conference opponents. Take Charlotte (10*). |
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03-20-21 | Spurs v. Bucks -9.5 | Top | 113-120 | Loss | -112 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Milwaukee minus the points over San Antonio at 9:10 pm et on Saturday. The Spurs guaranteed themselves a winning road trip with last night's 116-110 win in Cleveland. I can certainly see a scenario unfolding where they have a tough time keeping within arm's reach against a much better rested Bucks squad here on Saturday. For San Antonio, this will be its fifth game in the last seven nights (in five different cities). In fact, it will be the Spurs seventh game in seven different cities since the All-Star break. Meanwhile, the Bucks are home off two days' rest and this will mark just their fourth game in the last eight days and only their fifth since the All-Star break (in only three different cities). Note that Milwaukee has gone 28-15 ATS returning home following an ATS loss over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by 14.1 points on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Spurs have been outscored by 7.2 points per game on average as a road underdog over the last three seasons, and this is by no means a favorable situation (for the reasons noted above). Take Milwaukee (10*). |
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03-19-21 | Nets v. Magic +10.5 | Top | 113-121 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
NBA Underdog Game of the Week. My selection is on Orlando plus the points over Brooklyn at 8:10 pm et on Friday. The Magic haven't won a game since February 21st and are in what appears to be a tough spot here playing the second of back-to-back nights off a tough loss in New York on Thursday. With that being said, I believe they're being given too many points here. The Nets have won six games in a row, including a come-from-behind victory in Indiana (without Kyrie Irving) two nights ago. I do question how easy it will be for the Nets to get up for this one against the slumping Magic, however. The Magic have played hard off a road loss over the last three seasons, outscored by an average margin of just 1.9 points per game in that situation, as is the case here. The Nets are outscoring opponents by just 5.2 points per game as a road favorite this season, well south of the spread we're dealing with tonight. Orlando has been getting healthier lately and we've seen signs of progress as it has gone 4-2 ATS over its last six games. I expect the Magic to use last night's close loss as a confidence-builder rather than a reason to be down on themselves here. Take Orlando (10*). |
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03-19-21 | Spurs v. Cavs +4.5 | 116-110 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland plus the points over San Antonio at 7:40 pm et on Friday. Even without Demar Derozan, the Spurs have turned things around with consecutive wins over the Pistons and Bulls this week. I expect them to have a tough time staying up for this date with the lowly Cavs on Friday, however, with Derozan likely to miss once again. The Cavs finally won a game last time out with their young core showing up and showing out against the Celtics in a 117-110 victory. I look for some carry-over from that performance here. Note that the Spurs are just 6-16 ATS after winning three of their last four games over the last two seasons, outscored by 5.5 points on average in that situation. They're also a woeful 16-30 ATS as a favorite over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by just 2.2 points per contest. Take Cleveland (10*). |
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03-18-21 | Pelicans v. Blazers OVER 239.5 | 93-101 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New Orleans and Portland at 10:10 pm et on Thursday. These two teams were involved in an absolute thriller two nights ago with Damian Lillard bringing the Blazers all the way back in a 125-124 come-from-behind victory. I'm anticipating another high-scoring affair on Thursday, as the seemingly lofty total would suggest. I actually feel the total could be even higher than it is. Note that the 'over' is 13-2 when the total is set at 230+ points in games involving the Pelicans this season. That situation has produced an average total of 247.9 points. Interestingly, the Blazers have posted an 11-0 o/u record when playing at home off a game they won but failed to cover the spread, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 244.4 points. This series couldn't be much more higher-scoring with the last four meetings producing 249, 250, 243 and 255 total points. Take the over (10*). |
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03-18-21 | Thunder +7 v. Hawks | 93-116 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oklahoma City plus the points over Atlanta at 7:40 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams enter this game banged-up but I give the Thunder the considerable edge in terms of motivation. Oklahoma City is coming off a 21-point drubbing at the hands of the Bulls in Chicago two nights ago but that sets it up well here, noting that the Thunder have gone 8-1 ATS off a road loss this season, outscored by just 0.8 points per game in that spot. They're 29-11 ATS as a road underdog over the last two seasons, outscored by just 3.4 points per game on average. Meanwhile, the Hawks are a miserable 4-14 ATS after posting four or five ATS wins in their last six games over the last two seasons, outscored by a whopping 12.3 points per game in that situation. While we're obviously talking about a much stronger Atlanta squad than we've seen in past years', I do question how much the Hawks will be up for this one after winning six straight games, with their last three victories coming by double-digit margins. Take Oklahoma City (10*). |
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03-18-21 | Jazz v. Wizards +12 | 122-131 | Win | 100 | 8 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington plus the points over Utah at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. The Wizards have a quick turnaround here after losing on a last-second shot from De'Aaron Fox last night against the Kings. However, I would argue this is a much tougher game for Utah to get up for than Washington. The Jazz defeated the Celtics two nights ago in Boston and are playing in their third different time zone since the All-Star break having gone from Utah to San Francisco to Boston and now the short trip to Washington. Having gone just 4-6 ATS over their last 10 games, how interested are the Jazz in laying a beatdown on the Wiz here? Meanwhile, Washington has now lost five games in a row and would like nothing more than to play spoiler before heading on the road for three straight games in New York (one against the Nets and two against the Knicks). Note that while the Jazz are an impressive 15-5 ATS on the road after losing three of their last four games ATS over the last three seasons, they've won those games by an average margin of just 4.6 points. The Wizards are 26-9 ATS when playing the second of back-to-backs over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.4 points. Take Washington (10*). |
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03-17-21 | Heat -1 v. Grizzlies | Top | 85-89 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
NBA Blowout Game of the Week. My selection is on Miami minus the points over Memphis at 9:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Grizzlies are fading fast right now, losers of three games in a row, allowing their last two opponents to shoot a combined 89-for-156 (57%) from the field. They're back home tonight and catch the Heat in a back-to-back spot but that's certainly been factored into this line. Keep in mind, Memphis is actually a losing team at home this season where it has been outscored by 3.0 points per game on average. The Heat are an even 10-10 on the road but enter tonight's game riding a six-game winning streak away from home. Having held five straight opponents to 45.3% or worse shooting, I like the way the Heat have locked down on defense lately and I'm confident they can add to the Grizzlies woes on Wednesday night. Take Miami (10*). |
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03-17-21 | Kings v. Wizards -2.5 | 121-119 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington minus the points over Sacramento at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. We cashed a ticket fading the Kings on Monday night in Charlotte and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as they continue their eastern road swing in Washington. The Wizards have lost four straight games but they were underdogs in all four of those contests. This is clearly their best shot at a win on their current five-game homestand as a date with the Jazz looms tomorrow night. As I noted in Monday's analysis, the Kings have been awful following a loss this season and it ultimately boils down to poor coaching in my opinion. They've gone 6-17 ATS off a loss this season, outscored by 7.1 points on average in that situation. Under head coach Luke Walton, the Kings have gone 20-36 ATS following an ATS loss, outscored by 5.5 points per game on average. Look for the Wiz to bring an end to their losing streak here. Take Washington (10*). |
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03-16-21 | Cavs v. Heat UNDER 213 | 98-113 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Miami at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. This is a low total by today's NBA standards but it's warranted in my opinion. The Cavs will be playing just their third game since the All-Star break with neither of the previous two going well at all - blown out by 34 and 18 points at the hands of the Pelicans and Hawks. With that in mind, I do expect to see them play some defense here tonight and they draw perhaps a more favorable matchup with the Heat unlikely to really push the pace. Note that Miami's offense is below-average - the Heat haven't shot better than 50% from the field in a game just once since February 20th. On the flip side, Miami has been an excellent defensive team on its home floor, giving up just north of 107 points per game on below 44% shooting. This isn't a likely breakout spot for the Cavs offense, noting that they average just 98.7 points per game on the road this season. Take the under (10*). |
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03-16-21 | Knicks v. 76ers -6.5 | Top | 96-99 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
Atlantic Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over New York at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Knicks stayed competitive and covered the spread last night in Brooklyn but certainly showed signs of fatigue, shooting just 40% from the field and really only staying in it thanks to the Nets general disinterest in putting the game away. We won with the 76ers in Sunday's rout of the undermanned Spurs and I'm anticipating another convincing victory here on Tuesday. Further to my fatigue comment regarding the Knicks, note that they allowed the Nets to shoot 58% from the field last night. With a number of key cogs currently out of the lineup, I don't see this as an ideal bounce-back spot with New York heading home for a four-game homestand after this one. The 76ers continue to play without Joel Embiid but keep rolling along, winners of five games in a row ATS. They're a terrific positive momentum play having gone 14-4 ATS at home after scoring 115 points or more over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by 10.6 points per game in that situation. They've generally been rock solid at home this season, where they outscore opponents by eight points per game, going 14-6 ATS in the process. The Knicks average 105.9 points per game when revenging a same-season loss against an opponent over the last three seasons, outscored by an average margin of 4.4 points. I expect them to have a tough time keeping within arm's reach for four quarters tonight. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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03-15-21 | Grizzlies v. Suns -7 | 99-122 | Win | 100 | 12 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Memphis at 10:05 pm et on Monday. The Grizzlies are coming off a fourth quarter meltdown in Oklahoma City yesterday as they dropped a 128-122 decision as a big road favorite. Now they're in tough as they play the second half of a back-to-back against what will be a highly-motivated Suns squad coming off a double-digit home loss against the Pacers two nights ago. Memphis ranks second in the league in pace rating over its last five contests and I believe that's precisely what will get it into trouble tonight. Note that the Suns rank fifth in the league on offensive rating at home this season while checking in sixth in defensive rating at home. I certainly don't expect to see the Grizzlies shoot better than 50% from the field again tonight after they knocked down 51% of their shots yesterday. This one has the potential to get away from Memphis as it plays for the fourth time since the All-Star break (in three different cities). It's worth noting that the straight-up winner has gone a perfect 37-0 ATS in all games involving the Suns this season. Take Phoenix (10*). |
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03-15-21 | Knicks v. Nets UNDER 225 | Top | 112-117 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
NBA Atlantic Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Brooklyn at 8:05 pm et on Monday. New York turned in a peak offensive performance in Saturday's 119-97 rout of the Thunder in Oklahoma City with R.J. Barrett and Julius Randle going off for a combined 58 points on 20-of-36 shooting. Here, they'll obviously be facing a much tougher test against a Nets squad that while known for their offense, can play some defense as well. Brooklyn held Detroit to an almost unheard of (by today's NBA standards) 95 points on Saturday - the third time it has held an opponent to fewer than 100 points in its last nine games. Here, the Nets catch the Knicks in a favorable spot, with New York having averaged just 103.1 points per game after being involved in three straight games where at least 215 points were scored over the last three seasons. For whatever reason, the Knicks seem to get stronger defensively the longer they stay on the road. Off two consecutive road games this season, New York is allowing just 100.1 points per game. All Knicks road games have totaled an average of only 206.2 points, with the 'under' cashing at a 14-7 clip. The only previous meeting between these two teams this season totaled 225 points and that's likely why we're seeing a considerable bump in the total here (that first matchup saw a closing total of just 216.5 points). Take the under (10*). |
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03-15-21 | Kings v. Hornets -151 | Top | 116-122 | Win | 100 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
NBA Moneyline Game of the Year. My selection is on Charlotte (moneyline) over Sacramento at 7:05 pm et on Monday. It's time to start taking the Hornets seriously as they've moved over the .500 mark thanks to nine wins in their last 14 games. They barely broke a sweat in Saturday's rout of the undermanned Raptors and now wrap up their three-game homestand against the revenge-minded Kings on Monday night. Rather than lay the points with the Hornets here, I'll back them on the moneyline, only due to their tendency to get involved in extremely tight games. Note that Charlotte has wins by 3, 1, 3 and 2 points since February 20th. Sacramento checks in off a 121-106 loss in Atlanta on Saturday. The Kings have not been a good bounce-back team this season, going 6-16 ATS when coming off a loss, outscored by an average margin of 7.2 points in that situation. That's a coaching problem as far as I'm concerned. Under head coach Luke Walton, the Kings have gone 20-35 ATS off an ATS loss, outscored by an average margin of 5.4 points. I mentioned the Kings will be looking for revenge here, that's because they dropped a 127-126 decision at home against the Hornets on February 28th. Keep in mind, Sacramento has been outscored by 3.3 points per game when on the road revenging a home loss against an opponent over the last three seasons. The Hornets went 0-3 straight-up the first three times they were favored this season but that was clearly a product of having a lot of new (and young) faces in the lineup. Since then, they've gone 6-1 SU in their last seven games as a favorite. Realizing the importance of keeping their win streak intact before heading out on a tough road trip, expect to see them improve on that mark tonight. Take Charlotte moneyline (10*). |
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03-14-21 | Cavs v. Hawks -6.5 | Top | 82-100 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
NBA Blowout Game of the Month. My selection is on Atlanta minus the points over Cleveland at 7:35 pm et on Sunday. The Hawks avoided a possible 'trap' last night, dominating the Kings in a 121-106 victory. The fact that they're playing on back-to-back nights (and for the third time in four nights) is certainly being factored into the line here. I like the make-up of the Hawks rotation right now with Danilo Gallinari and Bogdan Bogdanovic back healthy to contribute off the bench. Cam Reddish remains sidelined but let's face it, he's been a general disappointment in his sophomore season. The Cavs were playing reasonably well prior to the All-Star break but returned with a 34-point loss in New Orleans on Friday. Cleveland remains an awful road team and will face a motivated Hawks squad here after Atlanta dropped a 112-111 decision as eight-point favorites on the road against the Cavs back on February 23rd. Take Atlanta (10*). |
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03-14-21 | Spurs v. 76ers -2.5 | 99-134 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over San Antonio at 6:35 pm et on Sunday. The 76ers have faced some Covid-related adversity out of the All-Star break with Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons sidelined in their first game back - a convincing win in Chicago - before Embiid returned for Friday's rout of the Wizards. Here, the Sixers draw another favorable matchup against the Spurs. San Antonio delivered a blowout victory at home against the Magic on Friday, successfully bouncing back from a loss in Dallas two nights earlier. The fact that the Spurs won that game on Friday without Demar Derozan was impressive but there's a big difference between beating a team like the Magic at home and going out on the road and competing with the red hot 76ers. I simply feel this line will prove too short, even if the 76ers are once again missing key cogs. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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03-13-21 | Bucks v. Wizards +11 | Top | 125-119 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
NBA Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Washington plus the points over Milwaukee at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. The Wizards are 0-2 SU and ATS coming out of the All-Star break and most will expect them to get blown out by the mighty Bucks here, who returned from the break with a rout of the Knicks. I’ll go the other way and grab the points with the Wiz as I see this as a very difficult game for Milwaukee to get up for. Note that the Bucks are just 14-27 ATS on the road after scoring 115 points or more in their last game over the last two seasons. Meanwhile the Wiz are 25-9 ATS when playing the second of back-to-back games over the last three seasons and have been out scored by just 4.3 points per game off a loss by 20+ points over the same period. Take Washington (10*). |
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03-12-21 | Pacers +4.5 v. Lakers | Top | 100-105 | Loss | -104 | 16 h 44 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Indiana plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:35 pm et on Friday. The Pacers went into the All-Star break on a real sour note having lost five of their last six games (0-6 ATS) and will certainly have no trouble getting up for this matchup with Lebron and the Lakers in Los Angeles on Friday night. Note that Indiana has gone a stellar 11-1 ATS, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 15.1 points when dropping the cash in six or seven of their last eight games, as is the case here. The Lakers also entered the break as a downtrodden squad having lost back-to-back games and six of their last eight games overall. Having lost their most recent game in Sacramento, the Lakers are set up poorly here, having actually been outscored by an average margin of 1.6 points following a road loss over the last three seasons. Take Indiana (10*). |
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03-11-21 | Suns v. Blazers +4.5 | Top | 127-121 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Portland plus the points over Phoenix at 10:05 pm et on Thursday. The Suns crushed the Blazers by 32 points in Phoenix the last time these two teams met back on February 22nd. This time around, I'm expecting Portland to put up a much tougher fight as it catches the Suns in a favorable situation. Note that Phoenix has inexplicably been outscored by 10.6 points per game on average when playing on the road following a home game over the last three seasons. Further exacerbating things is the fact that the Suns are 0-8 ATS when playing on three or more days' rest over the last three seasons, outscored by an average margin of 10.3 points in that situation. Meanwhile, the Blazers check in 17-6 ATS when revenging a double-digit road loss against an opponent over the last three seasons, outscoring the opposition by 2.5 points on average. Looking up at Phoenix in the Western Conference standings, look for the Blazers to take a stand at home on Thursday night. Take Portland (10*). |
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