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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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07-23-18 | Dodgers v. Phillies OVER 8.5 | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 23 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'over' at Citizens Bank Park on Monday night. Ross Stripling will get the nod for the Dodgers. He has been pitching well before getting roughed up in a 1 2/3-inning outing at the All-Star Game. I simply feel this is a tough matchup for him in a hitter's park following the extended All-Star break. The Phillies last three games have totaled 16, 16 and 12 runs. Zach Eflin will take the ball for the Phillies. He has worked beyond the fifth inning just twice in his last five starts. Eflin has faced the Dodgers three times over the course of his career, allowing 14 earned runs in 14 innings of work. The 'over' cashed in all three of those starts. Take the over (10*). |
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07-22-18 | White Sox v. Mariners UNDER 8.5 | 2-8 | Loss | -117 | 19 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Seattle at 4:10 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'under' at Safeco Field on Sunday afternoon. Reynaldo Lopez will take the ball for the White Sox. He has worked at least 6 1/3 innings in three of his last four trips to the hill. Last time out he did give up five earned runs, but battled for seven innings and it's worth noting that game totaled only five runs. Lopez will be making his first career start against the Mariners. Marco Gonzalez will counter for Seattle. He has worked at least six innings in five consecutive starts. He tossed seven shutout innings of two-hit ball in his most recent start. The 'under' has cashed in each of his last five starts. Gonzalez has faced the White Sox just once in his career - that start coming back in April - and he didn't give up an earned run in six innings of work. Take the under (10*). |
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07-22-18 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8 | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 19 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and Arizona at 4:10 pm et on Sunday. I'll back the 'under' at Chase Field on Sunday afternoon. Antonio Senzatela will take the ball for the Rockies. He has worked at least six innings in both starts this season. Senzatela did allow six earned runs last time out but he was still fairly efficient in that outing, needing 101 pitches to get through six frames. The D'Backs have had a couple of big offensively explosions lately, but haven't been all that consistent at the dish. Zack Greinke will counter for Arizona. He is coming off a fantastic outing, tossing 7 2/3 shutout innings on the road against the Braves. Greinke has worked at least into the seventh innings in three of his last four starts overall. Note that the 'under' has cashed in each of his last four outings. Take the under (10*). |
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07-21-18 | Indians v. Rangers UNDER 10 | 16-3 | Loss | -113 | 23 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Texas at 8:05 pm et on Saturday. I'll back the 'under' in Arlington on Saturday night. Carlos Carrasco will take the ball for the Indians. He bounced back from a rough stretch in his most recent start, allowing just one earned run over five innings against the Reds. He followed that up with a perfect one-inning relief appearance prior to the All-Star break. Note that Carrasco has actually pitched better on the road than at home, posting a 3.33 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in 54 innings of work. Bartolo Colon will counter for Texas. He continues to chug along, having worked at least six innings in four of his last five starts. Colon allowed three earned runs or less in all five of those outings. I like the fact that he hasn't thrown more than 100 pitches in a start since back on May 26th. Take the under (10*). |
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07-21-18 | Dodgers v. Brewers UNDER 8 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 22 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Milwaukee at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. I'll back the 'under' at Miller Park on Saturday night. The Dodgers will hand the ball to their ace Clayton Kershaw. He has rounded back into form, pitching at least six innings in each of his last three starts, giving up only five earned runs in 18 2/3 innings of work. Note that he has been at his best on the road this season, where he has posted a 2.25 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. Chase Anderson will counter for Milwaukee. He's been one of the most underrated starters in baseball this season as far as I'm concerned. Anderson has worked at least into the sixth inning in three of his last four starts. In those four starts he has given up just four earned runs in 22 1/3 innings pitched. Not surprisingly, the 'under' has gone 4-0-1 in his last five outings. Take the under (10*). |
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07-20-18 | Giants v. A's UNDER 9 | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 24 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Francisco and Oakland at 9:35 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'under' in Oakland on Friday night. The Giants will hand the ball to rookie Dereck Rodriguez. After struggling early in the campaign, he has responded by working at least into the sixth inning in four of his last five starts, giving up two earned runs or less in four of those outings as well. We won with the 'under' in his most recent start - a 3-2 victory over the Cardinals on July 6th. Veteran Edwin Jackson will counter for Oakland. He has made four starts for the A's this season, working at least into the sixth inning in all four outings. He has yet to give up more than two earned runs in a start this season. The 'under' has gone 2-0-2 in his four starts. Take the under (10*). |
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07-20-18 | Twins v. Royals UNDER 9 | 5-6 | Loss | -107 | 23 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Kansas City at 8:15 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'under' in Kansas City on Friday night. Kyle Gibson continues to be one of the most underrated and undervalued starters in baseball this season. He has worked at least into the sixth inning in 12 of his last 13 starts overall. Gibson has been a force on the road, posting a 2.84 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. On the flip side, Royals starter Danny Duffy has really struggled at home with an ERA north of six. However, Duffy gave up just one earned run over six innings in a 2-1 victory over these same Twins back on May 29th. He has given up just two earned runs in 18 innings of work in his last three outings against Minnesota. Take the under (10*). |
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07-13-18 | Angels v. Dodgers UNDER 8 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 22 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'under' at Dodger Stadium on Friday night. Felix Pena will take the ball for the Angels. He seems to be getting better with each passing start and has now worked at least into the sixth inning in each of his last two starts, giving up just two earned runs in 10 2/3 innings, needing only 76 pitches to get through each of those outings. Walker Buehler will make his return to the Dodgers rotation after a rocky relief appearance. Before he got injured, he had worked seven innings in two of his last three starts. Buehler has posted a 2.87 ERA and 0.83 WHIP at home this season. His arm should be fresh as he has rarely had to be stretched out this season, topping out at 97 pitches. Take the under (10*). |
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07-12-18 | Rays v. Twins UNDER 8 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
MLB American League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Tampa Bay and Minnesota at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. We saw a wild, high-scoring affair between these two clubs yesterday afternoon at Target Field but I expect to see a different story unfold on Thursday night. Blake Snell has been considered one of the biggest All-Star snubs this season and I certainly anticipate him pitching with plenty of fire in this one. Snell has been nothing short of brilliant this season, posting a 2.09 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. In 28 2/3 innings of work over his last four starts he has allowed just two earned runs on 14 hits. Kyle Gibson has enjoyed a solid campaign by his own standards for the Twins. Gibson checks in with a 3.57 ERA and 1.27 WHIP and enters this start having worked at least six innings in five of his last six trips to the hill. Last time out he gave up just three earned runs over seven innings against the Orioles. We're not being given a lofty total to work with by any means, but I still see considerable value in the 'under' at the current number. Take the under (10*). |
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07-11-18 | Reds v. Indians UNDER 9 | 4-19 | Loss | -114 | 10 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cincinnati and Cleveland at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'under' at Progressive Field on Wednesday. Tyler Mahle remains an undervalued starter, having worked at least into the sixth inning in four of his last five starts. Last time out he gave up just one earned run over 6 2/3 innings against the Cubs in Chicago. Note that his 10 road starts this season have averaged just north of seven total runs. Carlos Carrasco will counter for Cleveland. He has worked at least into the sixth inning in two of his last three starts, but has admittedly not been at the top of his game since around late May. With that being said, I do look for him to step up after the Reds took the first two games in this series. Carrasco has gone at leats six innings in all four career starts against the Reds. Take the under (10*). |
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07-10-18 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies UNDER 11 | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 23 h 27 m | Show |
MLB N.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Arizona and Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Tuesday. I'll back the 'under' at Coors Field on Tuesday night. The D'Backs will send Patrick Corbin to the mound. He checks in having been in fine form over his last three starts, posting a 0.95 ERA and 0.84 WHIP over that stretch. In seven road starts he has recorded a 2.32 ERA and 1.03 WHIP with those games averaging just north of seven total runs. Note that Corbin has worked at least into the sixth inning in 10 consecutive outings. Likewise, Rockies starter Tyler Anderson has been working deep into ball games, going at least into the sixth inning in six straight starts. He hasn't allowed a single earned run over his last two outings, giving up only six hits in 16 innings. Note that the 'under' has cashed in each of his last three starts. Take the under (10*). |
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07-09-18 | Reds v. Indians UNDER 9 | Top | 7-5 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 7 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Cincinnati and Cleveland at 7:10 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'under' at Progressive Field on Monday night. Anthony DeScaflani will take the ball for the Reds. He has worked at least into the sixth inning in four straight starts. While he did allow nine earned runs over his last two outings, he needed only 88 and 82 pitches to get through those starts. In his lone road start this season he gave up just two earned runs in 5 2/3 innings in Pittsburgh. Mike Clevinger will make his first start since July 1st for the Indians. He has worked at least six innings in six of his last seven starts. I like the fact that he has thrown more than 100 pitches just twice in his last four outings and has had the extended layoff since his last start. Take the under (10*). |
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07-06-18 | Cardinals v. Giants UNDER 8.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between St. Louis and San Francisco at 10:15 pm et on Friday. The Cardinals exploded offensively for the second straight game last night, plating 11 runs in a rout of the Giants. I look for things to settle down on Friday as two young starting pitchers take the mound. John Gant will take the ball for the Cards. He has worked at least into the sixth inning in three consecutive starts. Even in his last start, while he did allow four earned runs in 5 1/3 innings he needed just 79 pitches to get through that outing. Gant will be facing a Giants club that isn't scoring right now, having plated just five runs over their last four games - perhaps most alarming is the fact that three of those were played at hitter-friendly Coors Field in Denver. Dereck Rodriguez will counter for San Francisco. After a tough start to the campaign, he has settled in, guiding the Giants to wins in each of his last four starts. Rodriguez has worked at least into the seventh inning in three of his last four outings, allowing just six earned runs in 25 innings over that stretch. Take the under (10*). |
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07-04-18 | Cardinals v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8 | 8-4 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between St. Louis and Arizona at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. Neither of these teams are scoring with much consistency right now. With that in mind, I'll call for a relatively low-scoring affair on Wednesday night. Miles Mikolas remains one of the most undervalued starters in baseball. He has worked at least into the sixth inning in seven of his last eight starts. He has also given up an earned run or less in four of his last six outings. The 'under' is 5-1 over that stretch. Patrick Corbin will counter for Arizona. Like Mikolas, he has been lasting deep into games having worked at least into the sixth frame in nine straight starts. The 'under' has cashed in each of his last three starts as he has given up just one earned run in his last 13 innings of work, spanning his last two outings. Take the under (10*). |
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07-04-18 | Mets v. Blue Jays UNDER 9 | Top | 6-3 | Push | 0 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a wild, high-scoring affair between these two teams last night but I expect a different story to unfold on Wednesday. Corey Oswalt will take the ball for the Mets, making his second big league start. He struggled in his first, but I do look for him to settle down against an inconsistent Blue Jays offense on Wednesday. Note that Oswalt did hold the Cardinals to just two earned runs on two hits over 4 2/3 innings in a relief appearance earlier this season, so he's capable of stepping up. Blue Jays starter Marcus Stroman has rounded back into form since returning from injury, allowing only one earned run over 12 frames in his last two starts. Not surprisingly, the 'under' cashed in both of those games. I like the fact that he hasn't been overworked, needing only 81 and 90 pitches to get through those two outings. Take the under (10*). |
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07-04-18 | Red Sox v. Nationals UNDER 9 | 3-0 | Win | 105 | 3 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Washington at 11:05 am et on Wednesday. I'll keep my analysis short with first pitch fast approaching on the Fourth of July. Eduardo Rodriguez has at least worked into the sixth inning in seven of his last eight starts overall. The 'under' is 7-3 in his last 10 starts. Meanwhile, Nats rookie Erick Fedde has at least worked into the sixth frame in five of his last seven outings. The 'under' is 4-1 in his last five trips to the hill. After a wild, high-scoring affair between these two teams last night, look for a lower-scoring contest on Wednesday. Take the under (10*). |
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06-29-18 | Nationals v. Phillies UNDER 9 | Top | 17-7 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 46 m | Show |
MLB N.L. East Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Friday. When these two teams met last week they combined to score 36 runs in three games. I expect a different story to unfold on Friday night, however, as two young starting pitchers go head-to-head. Erick Fedde will take the ball for the Nationals. He has worked at least into the sixth inning in five of his last six trips to the hill. I like the fact that Fedde has thrown fewer than 100 pitches in six of his first seven big league starts. His ground ball to fly ball ratio has been outstanding over his last few outings. The 'under' has cashed in each of Fedde's last four starts. Nick Pivetta will counter for Philadelphia. He hasn't been working deep into ball games lately but should take some positives from his most recent start against the same Nats' he'll face on Friday night. In that outing he gave up just two earned runs in five innings and needed only 87 pitches to get through that start. Pivetta has been solid at home this season, posting a 3.04 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. His home starts are totaling just shy of 7.5 runs per contest. Take the under (10*). |
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06-28-18 | A's v. Tigers UNDER 8.5 | 4-2 | Win | 102 | 16 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Oakland and Detroit at 1:10 pm et on Thursday. Just feel that this total is too high considering the current form of both starting pitchers. Sean Manaea will take the ball for the A's. He's come out of a rough patch to work at least into the sixth inning in each of his last four starts, allowing three earned runs or less in all four outings. Note that he owns a solid 3.17 ERA and 1.10 WHIP on the road this season. Michael Fulmer has also bounced back for the Tigers in recent weeks, working at least into the sixth inning in four consecutive starts. He has given up just five earned runs in 19 2/3 innings of work over his last three trips to the hill. The 'under' cashed in all three of those contests. Take the under (10*). |
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06-27-18 | Reds v. Braves UNDER 8.5 | 6-5 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cincinnati and Atlanta at 12:10 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the 'under' at Sun Trust Park on Wednesday afternoon. The Reds will hand the ball to Luis Castillo. He has worked at least into the sixth inning in two of his last three and eight of his last 16 starts overall. So he's not exactly the picture of consistency, but has settled in lately, allowing just 28 hits over his last 32 1/3 innings, and I like the fact that he has thrown fewer than 100 pitches in six of his last seven starts overall. Sean Newcomb will counter for Atlanta. We missed the mark with the 'under' in his most recent start but that was no fault of Newcomb's. In that outing, he lasted seven innings, giving up one earned run on five hits against the Orioles. Note that he has worked at least into the sixth inning in each of his last five starts. Over that stretch, Newcomb has allowed more than two earned runs only once. He threw 108 pitches in his last outing - the first time in seven starts he had gone over the 100 pitch mark. The last two times he has thrown over 100 pitches he has given up a combined five hits and one earned run in 12 innings. Take the under (10*). |
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06-26-18 | Cubs v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 | 9-4 | Loss | -115 | 25 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. I'll back the 'under' at Chavez Ravine on Tuesday night. Jon Lester will take the ball for the Cubs. he tossed seven shutout innings against these same Dodgers at Wrigley Field just last week. While he did need to throw 119 pitches to get through that outing, the good news is that he has had five full days off since. Lester has worked at least six innings in seven of his last nine starts against Los Angeles. Three of his last four starts against them have totaled five runs or less. Ross Stripling will counter for the Dodgers. He continues to be one of the most undervalued starting pitchers in baseball. Stripling has worked at least six innings in three straight starts. Last week against the Cubs he needed only 84 pitches to go six innings, allowing three earned runs in a 4-0 loss (he was matched up against Lester in that one as well). Stripling owns an impressive 1.82 ERA and 0.96 WHIP at Dodger Stadium this season. Take the under (10*). |
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06-26-18 | Royals v. Brewers UNDER 8 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 23 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Kansas City and Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the 'under' in the Royals 2-0 victory over the Angels yesterday afternoon and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play as they travel to face the Brewers on Tuesday night. Jakob Junis will take the ball for the Royals. He has worked at least into the sixth inning in five consecutive starts. He was roughed up in two of those, but has still held five of his last seven opponents to three earned runs or less. Junis' road starts are averaging a total of just under 7.2 runs this season. Freddy Peralta will counter for Milwaukee. He has made three starts since returning to the Brewers rotation, with all three of those coming on the road. He was outstanding in two of those, including his most recent outing in which he allowed only two hits over six shutout innings, striking out seven and not walking a single batter. Remember, in Peralta's first start of the season he allowed just one hit in 5 2/3 innings against the Rockies at Coors Field. He'll be up against a Royals offense that continues to stumble on Tuesday night. Take the under (10*). |
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06-26-18 | Padres v. Rangers UNDER 10 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 23 h 29 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between San Diego and Texas at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Padres aren't scoring with any consistency right now and while the Rangers have been on a bit of a tear at the dish, I believe they'll be held in check by San Diego starter Tyson Ross. Ross has been effective on the road this season, posting a 3.13 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 54 2/3 innings of work. He enters this outing having worked at least into the sixth inning in nine of his last 10 starts overall. Ross is coming off one of his best starts of the season, having allowed just one earned run over seven innings against the Giants, albeit in a losing effort. Austin Bibens-Dirkx has made three starts this season, working into the seventh inning in two of those. He needed only 81 pitches to go 6 2/3 innings against the Royals last time out. I look for him to build off of that performance against a slumping Padres lineup here. Take the under (10*). |
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06-25-18 | Angels v. Royals UNDER 9 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 19 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Kansas City at 4:15 pm et on Monday. The 'under' has cashed in four of six meetings between these two clubs this season and I look for that trend to continue on Monday afternoon. Neither team has been scoring with much consistency lately - particularly the Royals. Kansas City has plated three runs or less in six straight games. Tyler Skaggs will take the ball for the Angels on Monday. Skaggs has posted a 2.27 ERA and 1.11 WHIP on the road this season. He has worked at least six innings in three straight starts, allowing just one earned run in 20 innings over that stretch. He has tossed 14 scoreless frames in two career starts against the Royals. Brad Keller will counter for Kansas City. He's been stretched out over his last two outings after being on a short leash in his first two starts. Keller has given up five earned runs over his last two starts, working into the sixth inning and beyond in each of those two outings. Keep in mind, his second career start came against the Angels, and he held them to one earned run over 4 1/3 innings. Take the under (10*). |
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06-23-18 | Mariners v. Red Sox UNDER 9.5 | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Seattle and Boston at 7:15 pm et on Saturday. We saw a wild, high-scoring game between these two teams last night as the Mariners prevailed by a 14-10 score. I expect things to settle down on Saturday night at Fenway Park, however. Mike Leake will take the ball for the Mariners. He has at least worked into the sixth inning in 10 straight starts and while the 'over' has gone a perfect 3-0 in his last three outings, he has actually held five of his last six opponents to two earned runs or less. Eduardo Rodriguez will counter for Boston. Like Leake, he has been very consistent, working into the sixth inning at least in six straight starts, while allowing two earned runs or less in each of those outings. The 'under' is 3-1 in his four career starts against Seattle. Take the under (10*). |
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06-22-18 | Cardinals v. Brewers UNDER 8.5 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between St. Louis and Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Friday. The Brewers exploded for 11 runs in a rout of the Cardinals yesterday but I expect a lower-scoring game to play out on Friday night at Miller Park. Jack Flaherty will take the ball for the Cardinals. He has certainly held his own this season, sporting a 2.66 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in nine starts. The 'under' has gone 6-2-1 in those nine contests. Flaherty has faced the Brewers once this season, allowing just one earned run in five innings. Junior Guerra will counter for Milwaukee. He checks in having worked at least into the sixth inning in five straight starts. Guerra hasn't given up more than three earned runs in a start since May 9th against Cleveland. In two outings against the Cards this season he has allowed only one earned run in 11 1/3 innings. Take the under (10*). |
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06-22-18 | Orioles v. Braves UNDER 8.5 | Top | 10-7 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
MLB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Baltimore and Atlanta at 7:10 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'under' in Atlanta on Friday night as two teams that have been struggling to score with consistency lately go head-to-head in an interleague matchup. Baltimore will hand the ball to Alex Cobb. He missed all of spring training so the first part of the regular season was essentially his time to work out the kinks. He certainly struggled as a result. However, he has rebounded lately, working at least six innings in three of his last four starts. Note that he has also thrown fewer than 100 pitches in six of his last seven outings. The 'under' is 3-1 in Cobb's last four starts. Sean Newcomb will counter for Atlanta. He has worked at least into the sixth inning in four straight starts. Last time out, Newcomb threw six innings of two-hit shutout ball. He checks in having allowed two earned runs or less in seven of his last nine outings. Newcomb has been sharp here at home, posting a 3.07 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. Take the under (10*). |
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06-21-18 | Mets v. Rockies UNDER 11 | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 18 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Colorado at 3:10 pm et on Thursday. I'll go the contrarian route and back the 'under' at Coors Field on Thursday afternoon. Steven Matz will take the ball for the Mets. He has pitched well on the road this season, posting a 1.55 ERA. Matz has worked at least six innings in each of his last three starts, giving up only six earned runs in 19 2/3 innings of work. Note that Matz gave up just three earned runs in five innings in his lone previous outing here at Coors Field. Kyle Freeland will counter for Colorado. He has certainly looked comfortable pitching in Denver this season, posting a sub-3.00 ERA. Freeland has worked at least into the sixth inning in each of his last 10 starts. The 'under' has cashed in eight of those 10 outings. Take the under (10*). |
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06-20-18 | Marlins v. Giants UNDER 8 | 5-6 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and San Francisco at 3:45 pm et on Wednesday. The first two games of this series have played 'over' the total but I look for a different story to unfold on getaway day. Jose Urena will take the ball for the Marlins. He has been consistently keeping the Fish in games, working at least into the sixth inning in nine of his last 10 starts. While I don't love the fact that he threw 112 pitches last time out and throws on four days' rest today, he is catching a Giants club that isn't scoring a boatload of runs right now. We won with the 'under' in Giants starter Derek Holland's last trip to the hill. He has allowed two earned runs or less in three straight starts, even if he hasn't been working deep into ball games. Note that the Marlins haven't scored more than five runs in any of their last eight games. I believe Holland can keep them in check again today. Take the under (10*). |
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06-19-18 | Braves v. Blue Jays UNDER 9 | 11-4 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. I'll back the 'under' as the Braves and Blue Jays open up an interleague series in Toronto on Tuesday night. The Braves continue to win games but aren't exactly tearing the cover off of the baseball right now. They've scored four runs or less in six of their last seven contests. Meanwhile, Toronto is coming off an eight-run outburst on Sunday and a clean sweep of the reeling Nationals at home. They've still scored just a grand total of 21 runs in their last six games, however. They'll be in tough against Braves rookie Mike Soroka on Tuesday. Soroka is coming off arguably the best start of his young career as he needed only 74 pitches to navigate 6 1/3 innings of one-hit shutout ball last week against the Mets. The 'under' is 3-1 in his first four big league starts. Jaime Garcia will counter for Toronto. He's been alternating good and bad starts and is coming off a bad one entering this contest. Note that Garcia has looked comfortable pitching here at Rogers Centre, recording a 3.00 ERA in five starts spanning 27 innings of work. Take the under (10*). |
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06-16-18 | Red Sox v. Mariners UNDER 8.5 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 23 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Seattle at 8:15 pm et on Saturday. The Red Sox haven't exactly been tearing the cover off the baseball lately, at least not the way they were earlier in the season. They'll hand the ball to knuckle-baller Steven Wright on Saturday night in Seattle. Wright has been terrific since re-joining the rotation, allowing just six hits and no earned runs in 13 2/3 innings of work, covering two starts. Going back to the start of last season, Wright has needed to throw more than 100 pitches just once in seven outings. Wade LeBlanc will counter for Seattle. LeBlanc has allowed two earned runs or less in seven of eight starts this season. He hasn't consistently worked deep into games, but has thrown less than 100 pitches in all eight of his starts. LeBlanc last faced the Red Sox back in 2016, giving up only three earned runs on five hits in six innings. Take the under (10*). |
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06-16-18 | Twins v. Indians UNDER 8.5 | 9-3 | Loss | -120 | 19 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Cleveland at 4:10 pm et on Saturday. I'll back the 'under' at Progressive Field on Saturday afternoon as the Twins send Fernando Romero to the hill against Carlos Carrasco. Romero lasted just five innings in his most recent start but gave up just two earned runs on five hits and threw only 94 pitches. Note that he has thrown fewer than 100 pitches in seven of his eight outings this season. He'll be making his first career start against the Indians. Carrasco has been arguably the best pitcher in baseball over his last two starts, allowing only one earned run on 10 hits in 14 innings pitched, striking out 21 and walking only two along the way. He was roughed up by the Twins in his lone previous start against them this season, but has still given up one earned run or less in four of his last five starts vs. Minnesota. Take the under (10*). |
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06-15-18 | Rays v. Yankees UNDER 9 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 21 h 27 m | Show |
MLB A.L. East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Tampa Bay and New York at 7:05 pm et on Friday. The Yankees were one of the best 'over' bets in baseball for the first two months of the season but that has certainly turned around lately as they've reeled off nine straight 'under' results. I look for that trend to continue on Friday night in the Bronx. Tampa Bay will hand the ball to Nathan Eovaldi. He tossed six innings of no-hit ball in his return from Tommy John surgery and since then has worked five innings in back-to-back outings against the Nationals and Mariners. While we're dealing with a small sample size it is worth noting that his strikeout numbers are up while his walk totals are down. After giving up three home runs in his last two starts he will definitely need to do a better job of commanding the strike zone in order to keep the Yankees All-Star lineup in the ballpark on Friday. Jonathan Loaisiga will make his first big league start for the Yankees. The 23-year old hasn't even started a game at the Triple-A level so it's difficult to say how he'll adapt to facing big league hitters. The good news is he faces a lower-tier opponent in the Rays. It's also worth noting that Loiaisiga has posted an impressive 58:4 strikeout-to-walk ratio in the minors this season. Take the under (10*). |
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06-13-18 | Cubs v. Brewers UNDER 9 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 102 | 17 h 9 m | Show |
MLB N.L. Central Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Milwaukee at 2:10 pm et on Wednesday. Both of these teams have been trending to the 'under' this season and I don't see anything changing as they meet in Wednesday's series finale at Miller Park. Mike Montgomery is off to a terrific start for the Cubs this season, having worked at least into the sixth inning in each of his first three starts, allowing a grand total of two earned runs in 17 2/3 innings of work. He has needed just 76, 76 and 95 pitches to get through those three outings so he has been relatively efficient as well. The Brewers haven't been scoring with much consistency over the last couple of weeks so Montgomery may be catching them at the right time here. Jhoulys Chacin wil counter for Milwaukee. He's been sharp here at home this season, posting a 2.79 ERA in 29 innings of work. His five home starts have averaged a total of just 7.6 runs scored. Chacin brings solid form to the table having worked at least into the sixth inning in six of his last seven starts. He hasn't thrown more than 100 pitches in a start since April 20th so his arm should be in fine shape for this one. Take the under (10*). |
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06-12-18 | Nationals v. Yankees UNDER 9 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and New York at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Yankees were the best 'over' bet in baseball for the better part of the first two months of the season but now they check into this series riding a six-game 'under' streak. I look for that trend to continue on Tuesday as the Nationals send Tanner Roark to the hill against CC Sabathia. Roark has been extremely consistent this season, working at least six innings in nine of his last 10 starts and giving up three earned runs or less in seven of those starts. Last time out he allowed only two earned runs over six innings against the Rays. The Nats' gave Roark 11 runs in that game but generally haven't provided him a great deal of run support, putting up four runs or less in eight of his last 10 starts overall. Sabathia bounced back from a rough stretch, allowing only two earned runs on three hits over seven innings against the Blue Jays last time out. He has been fairly consistent at home this season, posting a 3.07 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 29 1/3 innings here at Yankee Stadium. His starts have generally been high-scoring but but here we're dealing with a fairly high posted total as well. Take the under (10*). |
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06-11-18 | Indians v. White Sox UNDER 9 | Top | 4-0 | Win | 109 | 24 h 40 m | Show |
A.L. Central Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Monday. Cleveland exploded for nine runs in yesterday's victory in Detroit, matching its highest offensive output since putting up nine runs in a game on May 31st. Note that the Indians had scored just 20 runs in total over their previous six contests. Meanwhile, the White Sox posted an impressive series win over the Red Sox at Fenway Park but scored only eight runs in the process. They've plated a grand total of 29 runs over their last nine games overall. Carlos Carrasco will take the ball for the Indians. He bounced back nicely following back-to-back shaky outings, allowing just one earned run over seven innings last time out against Milwaukee. Note that he has worked at least into the sixth inning in six of his last seven starts. His road starts are averaging just seven total runs this season. The 'under' has cashed in each of Carrasco's last four starts against the White Sox and he's given up only four earned runs in 29 1/3 innings of work. Lucas Giolito will counter for Chicago. He was rocked for seven earned runs and lasted only 1 1/3 innings against the Orioles back on May 24th. However, since then he has worked six innings in back-to-back outings - last time out allowing just two earned runs in Minnesota. The 'under' has gone 3-1-1 in Giolito's last five starts overall. Take the under (10*). |
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