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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-12-19 | Army v. Western Kentucky UNDER 43.5 | 8-17 | Win | 100 | 33 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Army and Western Kentucky at 7 pm et on Saturday. We’re dealing with a relatively low posted total in this one but the number is warranted in my opinion. Army is coming off back-to-back uncharacteristic high-scoring games, splitting those contests against Morgan State and Tulane. This one sets up as a slugfest, however, noting that Western Kentucky has seen three of its five games this season total 34 points or less. The Hilltoppers have managed to score more than 21 points only once, and that came back in Week 1 against FCS squad Central Arkansas. While last week’s game got away from them, the Black Knights have proven they can play hard-nosed defensive football, allowing a grand total of just 65 points through their first four contests this season. Take the under (10*). |
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10-12-19 | Texas Tech v. Baylor -10.5 | Top | 30-33 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 13 m | Show |
CFB Big 12 Game of the Month. My selection is on Baylor minus the points over Texas Tech at 4 pm et on Saturday. Baylor is one of the nation’s more surprising undefeated teams as we head into mid-October. The Bears are coming off back-to-back impressive wins over Iowa State and Kansas State and now have the opportunity to really get rolling before heading on the road for a showdown with Oklahoma State next week. Texas Tech is in a clear letdown spot here as it tries to follow up a surprising 45-35 win over Oklahoma State last Saturday. The Red Raiders jumped all over a Cowboys squad that was arguably ‘fat and happy’ off a big win over Kansas State the week previous. Keep in mind, Texas Tech is still playing without starting QB Alan Bowman. Jett Duffey has filled in admirably, not only this season but last year as well, but faces a tall task against a quality Baylor defense here. Just two weeks ago, Duffey was held to 11-of-20 passing for 120 yards and ran the ball seven times for just 16 yards against Oklahoma. Take Baylor (10*). |
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10-12-19 | Connecticut v. Tulane UNDER 58.5 | Top | 7-49 | Win | 100 | 30 h 59 m | Show |
CFB Total of the Week. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Connecticut and Tulane at 3:45 pm et on Saturday. Connecticut was in a terrific spot to earn its second win of the season last week as it hosted an injury-plagued South Florida squad at home. Not only did the Huskies fail to win that game, they got blown out by a 48-22 score. Their lone victory this season came against FCS squad Wagner at home back in Week 1. Things won’t get any easier as they travel to face upstart Tulane here, noting that UConn has topped out at 24 points – that performance coming against aforementioned Wagner. Tulane was involved in a surprising shootout against Army at West Point last Saturday, prevailing by a 42-33 score. That was actually the Green Wave’s second consecutive shootout win after defeating Houston 38-31 two weeks previous. I don’t think Tulane will be interested in getting involved in another high-scoring affair here. Remember, earlier this season we saw the Green Wave give up just 44 points over a three-game stretch that included a road date with Auburn (they gave up 24 points in that loss). This is a ‘win and move on’ type of situation for the Green Wave and that sets up well for us with an ‘under’ ticket in hand. Take the under (10*). |
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10-12-19 | Alabama -17 v. Texas A&M | 47-28 | Win | 100 | 30 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on Alabama minus the points over Texas A&M at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. We got backdoored by Texas A&M earlier this season as it scored a last-second touchdown to close the gap to 14 points at Clemson. I won’t hesitate to go back to the well fading the Aggies here, however, as they face another steep challenge against Alabama. We actually cashed an ‘under’ ticket the last time A&M took the field, two weeks ago against Arkansas in Dallas. The Aggies had a tough time putting away a middle-of-the-road Arkansas squad on that day, ultimately prevailing by a 31-27 score. QB Kellen Mond has now thrown four interceptions and has fumbled the football three times through five games this season. If he can’t take care of the football against the Crimson Tide it will be lights out in a hurry for the Aggies. There’s not a lot to say about Alabama. The Tide continue to roll but after giving up a grand total of 43 points in their first four games they allowed 31 against Ole Miss last Saturday. That should help keep their motivation level high as they head to College Station, noting that ‘Bama took this matchup by 22 points last season. Take Alabama (10*). |
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10-12-19 | South Carolina v. Georgia -22.5 | 20-17 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on Georgia minus the points over South Carolina at 12 noon et on Saturday. Georgia doesn’t seem to garner the same respect level as Alabama and Oklahoma but it should. The Bulldogs are off to a perfect 5-0 start, allowing a grand total of just 54 points in the process. The final score read 43-14 but last week’s win in Tennessee wasn’t a true blowout. Here, I look for Georgia to be even sharper. South Carolina has won twice in five games so far this season, including a 24-7 rout of Kentucky last week. That could leave the Gamecocks a little ‘fat and happy’ entering this not likely winnable contest on Saturday. Note that South Carolina has topped the 24-point mark only once this season and that came against FCS squad Charleston Southern. In the Gamecocks two road games to date they gave up 58 points against North Carolina and Missouri. Georgia rolled to a 24-point victory in this matchup last year but I don’t expect it to overlook South Carolina in this spot. Take Georgia (10*). |
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10-12-19 | Memphis -5 v. Temple | Top | 28-30 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 19 m | Show |
CFB AAC Game of the Year. My selection is on Memphis minus the points over Temple at 12 noon et on Saturday. I really like the way this spot sets up for a Memphis team that remains under the radar despite its perfect 5-0 record. The Tigers are coming off a 52-point explosion on the road against Louisiana-Monroe last week. RB Kenneth Gainwell is seemingly getting better with each passing game, racking up well north of 350 rush yards and four touchdowns over his last three contests. The Tigers defense didn’t perform particularly well in last week’s win, but did earn the game-sealing interception return for a touchdown in the fourth quarter. We have seen this unit step up when it has needed to – remember Memphis defeated Ole Miss by a 15-10 score back in Week 1. We suffered a tough backdoor defeat with Temple last week as it won in unimpressive fashion at East Carolina. The Owls are off to a solid 4-1 start this season but only their victory over then-21st ranked Maryland back on September 14th was all that impressive. Their offense seems to be regressing each week and that’s certainly not encouraging as they could very well need to keep up in a shootout here on Saturday. Take Memphis (10*). |
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10-11-19 | Virginia v. Miami-FL UNDER 43.5 | 9-17 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Virginia and Miami at 8 pm et on Friday. The Hurricanes are coming off a high-scoring affair last week against Virginia Tech while Virginia is coming off a much-needed bye week following an ugly performance on the road against Notre Dame. I'm anticipating a relatively low-scoring affair here. The Canes ultimately put up 35 points and now starting QB N'Kosi Perry threw for over 400 yards and four touchdowns last week against the Hokies but that had everything to do with the fact they were playing out of a 28-0 hole in the second quarter. Miami isn't built to win shootouts and won't be interested in another track meet here. The same goes for Virginia. The Cavaliers are off to a 4-1 start this season but have played a rather uneven brand of football on both offense and defense. With no semblance of a ground game, I'm not sure they're going to be able to generate a lot of offense against a good Miami defense in bounce-back mode here. Defensively, I do think the Cavaliers can limit the Canes offense that isn't as good as it showed on the scoresheet last week. Take the under (10*). |
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10-10-19 | UL-Monroe -2.5 v. Texas State | 24-14 | Win | 100 | 83 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Louisiana-Monroe minus the points over Texas State at 9:15 pm et on Thursday. At the onset of the season I had Texas State rated as one of the worst teams in the entire nation and despite the Bobcats 2-3 record, I still believe that is the case. Louisiana-Monroe checks in with an identical 2-3 mark but it has certainly faced a difficult draw with its three losses coming against Florida State and Iowa State on the road and undefeated Memphis at home. Even though the Warhawks lost by 19 at home against the Tigers last time out, that was a competitive game until the fourth quarter. Texas State has one impressive victory to its credit, or somewhat impressive at least. The Bobcats took down Georgia State by a 37-34 score at home back on September 21st. Keep in mind, they needed three overtimes to get it done and it's worth noting they didn't reach the end zone on offense until the final four minutes of the first half and then not again until overtime. The Warhawks took this matchup a year ago and I expect a similar story to unfold here. Take Louisiana-Monroe (10*). |
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10-10-19 | Giants v. Patriots OVER 40.5 | 14-35 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New York and New England at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. With word coming out that the Giants will be missing Saquon Barkley, Evan Engram and Sterling Shepard (among others) we've seen a considerable drop in this total (not to mention an ugly weather forecast). I feel it's gone too low. Simply put, I don't expect the Giants to possess the football long enough to churn out long, clock-eating drives in this game. Maybe we'll see the Patriots take their foot off the gas at some point, but even if they do, they'll likely have already contributed enough points to help this one 'over' the number. We're not asking much out of the Giants offense here and I don't believe they'll get completely shut out. Take the over (9*). |
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10-10-19 | Giants v. Patriots -16.5 | Top | 14-35 | Win | 100 | 35 h 42 m | Show |
NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month. My selection is on New England minus the points over New York at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. We won with the Patriots as a massive road favorite last Sunday in Washington and there’s little reason to jump ship as they return home on a short week to host the injury-riddled Giants on Thursday night. New York is expected to be without arguably its two best offensive players in this one as RB Saquon Barkley and TE Evan Engram are sidelined with injuries. That leaves rookie QB Daniel Jones in a really tough position going up against a fierce Patriots defense that should have little trouble exposing the Giants offensive line. Even when Jones does have time in the pocket he’ll have few options to work with down field. Maybe WR Golden Tate goes off in his second game back but I highly doubt it. It’s also worth mentioning that WR Sterling Shepard will miss this game after suffering an ugly concussion last week. Offensively, the Pats should be able to do whatever they want against one of the weakest defenses in the league. New York has had an extremely difficult time slowing down any opposing offense other than the lowly Redskins this season and continues to deal with a number of key injuries. The Patriots really didn’t get rolling until the second half against the Redskins last Sunday but still managed to put 30+ points on the board. Expect a sharper performance from Tom Brady and co. here as they roll past the G-Men in Foxborough. Take New England (10*). |
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10-07-19 | Browns v. 49ers UNDER 48 | Top | 3-31 | Win | 100 | 23 h 25 m | Show |
NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and San Francisco at 8:15 pm et on Monday. I absolutely love the way this play sets up on Monday night in Santa Clara. The Browns are coming off an offensive explosion on the road against the division rival Ravens last week but don't count on a repeat performance here. Cleveland came up with the perfect gameplan for that matchup, focusing on quick passes and run plays to beat up on an undermanned and struggling Ravens defense. Now the Browns stay on the road and travel across the country for a matchup with the upstart (and undefeated) 49ers, who have gotten some tremendous defensive play in the early going this season. While the Browns defense is in for some regression here, I do think their defense can hold up well against everyone not named George Kittle on Monday night. Kittle will get his, but look for the Browns 'D' to do a nice job of containing the Niners offense as a whole. Cleveland is getting a little healthier on the defensive side of the football and it matches up well with the middle-of-the-road San Francisco offense. This total has everything to do with the Browns high-scoring result last week and the early season thinking that the Niners would be involved in plenty of shootouts this season. Neither angle is really in touch with reality at this point. Take the under (10*). |
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10-06-19 | Jaguars v. Panthers OVER 40 | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 28 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Jacksonville and Carolina at 1 pm et on Sunday. We missed the mark with the 'over' in the Panthers win in Houston last Sunday but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. The door is open for another big game from Jaguars RB Leonard Fournette with the Panthers now missing DT Kawann Short. Note that even with Short in action, Carolina hasn't fared well against opposing run games, allowing just shy of 4.8 yards per rush. The Panthers are in a strong bounce-back spot offensively after getting held down by the Texans last Sunday. With Jaguars stud CB Jalen Ramsey ruled out once again, look for Panthers QB Kyle Allen to take full advantage. Even the bumbling Broncos offense was able to get rolling against this defense last week in Denver, and this certainly isn't an ideal spot for the Jags playing on the road for a second straight week. Nothing really needs to be said about the Panthers ground game as RB Christian McCaffrey can move the chains regardless the situation. Take the over (10*). |
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10-06-19 | Falcons v. Texans OVER 50 | 32-53 | Win | 100 | 27 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday. This game has true shootout potential, even after both of these offenses struggled mightily in last week's contests. With the Texans allowing north of 4.5 yards per carry on the ground, things should open up for Falcons QB Matt Ryan through the air in this one. Houston has one of the weakest secondaries in the entire NFL but held up fine last week thanks to Panthers QB Kyle Allen not testing it with deep passes. We should see a much different story unfold here with Ryan and WR Julio Jones in line for a big game. Atlanta's defense ranks second-to-last in the league in sacks this season and could be in for a long afternoon if it can't generate any pressure on Texans QB Deshaun Watson. WR DeAndre Hopkins has faced a murderer's row of cornerbacks in recent weeks but catches a break here against the Falcons struggling secondary. I've been calling for breakout games from WR Will Fuller for weeks now but it has yet to happen. This could certainly be the spot. Take the over (10*). |
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10-06-19 | Patriots -15 v. Redskins | 33-7 | Win | 100 | 27 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on New England minus the points over Washington at 1 pm et on Sunday. The oddsmakers really can't set this line high enough as the Patriots should have little trouble disposing of the Redskins in Washington on Sunday. This could be the end of the line for 'Skins head coach Jay Gruden. The team is in further turmoil this week after word got out that Gruden didn't want the team to draft QB Dwayne Haskins. Colt McCoy will get the start under center this week but your guess is as good as mine as to whether he'll finish the game. The Patriots defense has arguably been the best in football this season and should absolutely feast on a miserable Redskins offensive line. Washington's only real bright spot this season has been WR Terry McLaurin but he's dealing with a hamstring injury and questionable to play after missing last week's game. Even if he can go, he'll face the daunting challenge of Pats CB Stephon Gilmore's coverage here. I'm not even sure we'll need a lot from the New England offense but this is a really nice bounce-back spot off of last week's hard-fought, low-scoring win in Buffalo. Take New England (10*). |
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10-05-19 | Michigan State +21 v. Ohio State | 10-34 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on Michigan State plus the points over Ohio State at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. We won with Ohio State in its absolute annihilation of Nebraska last Saturday night but I'm expecting a much tighter affair this week as the Buckeyes welcome Michigan State to The Horseshoe. We also cashed in this matchup a year ago, winning a ticket on the 'under'. I do think we'll see points come at a premium again this year (last year's tilt reached only 32 total points). With that in mind, we're being given an awful lot of points with a quality Spartans squad. All most bettors can remember is Michigan State's ugly low-scoring home loss to Arizona State earlier this season. Outside of that game, the Spartans offense has performed well, however, and combine that with a terrific defense and I think Michigan State can stick around and make things interesting here. With a pointspread this generous and considering the tendency the Buckeyes have shown to ease off the gas in the later stages of football games (due entirely to building insurmountable leads), Spartans tickets should be in play right down to the final whistle. Take Michigan State (10*). |
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10-05-19 | Western Michigan v. Toledo OVER 72 | 24-31 | Loss | -108 | 25 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Western Michigan and Toledo at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. This one is being pegged as a shootout and I expect it to play out as exactly that on Saturday afternoon at the Glass Bowl. Last year this matchup produced 75 points in a game that wasn't competitive as Toledo rolled to a 51-24 victory. I do feel the Broncos are much better-suited to surviving a shootout this time around, keeping in mind we cashed a ticket on the 'over' in Western Michigan's wild 52-33 loss at Syracuse just two weeks ago. Things predictably settled down in the Broncos 31-15 win over Western Michigan last week but I'm confident the offense will ramp back up again here. Toledo is coming off a hard-fought 28-21 home win over BYU last week - the Rockets really couldn't have performed any better defensively in that one. Just two weeks ago they allowed 35 points in a narrow win at Colorado State. This is a team that can light it up through the air and on the ground and one that should have little trouble ripping through a weak Western Michigan defense. The concern for the Rockets has to be that they'll be in for a letdown here, particularly on the defensive side of the football, and the Broncos will certainly be ready to take advantage of that. This is a high total, but it's high for a reason. Take the over (10*). |
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10-05-19 | Tulane v. Army +3 | 42-33 | Loss | -120 | 22 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on Army plus the points over Tulane at 12 noon et on Saturday. In a game where points should come at a premium, I'll gladly grab the points with what I believe is the better team, at home no less, on Saturday afternoon. Tulane is coming off an emotional 38-31 win over Houston on national tv, but that came more than two weeks ago. The Green Wave were certainly up for that spotlight game at home but I'm not convinced we're going to see the same type of emotionally-fueled performance here. Army stumbled out of the gates this season, narrowly escaping with a 14-7 win over Rice back in Week 1. The Black Knights have gotten stronger with each passing week, however, including a near stunning upset win on the road against Michigan and back-to-back blowout victories over UTSA and Morgan State. Like Tulane, Army is also coming off its bye week. In what should be a competitive contest, I like the Knights to come away victorious. Take Army (10*). |
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10-04-19 | New Mexico +6.5 v. San Jose State | 21-32 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on New Mexico plus the points over San Jose State at 10 pm et on Friday. This isn't a pretty matchup by any means as New Mexico travels to face San Jose State with both teams sporting identical 2-2 records. All that most remember about the Lobos is that they got throttled 66-14 at Notre Dame two weeks ago. But let's keep things in perspective. New Mexico actually didn't allow an offensive touchdown until over three minutes into the second quarter in that game. They suffered some big defensive breakdowns allowing big play touchdowns in that contest, but won't face anything close to the same type of challenge against the Spartans here. San Jose State is coming off a 41-24 loss to Air Force last week. After scoring a touchdown in the first five minutes of the game, the Spartans didn't reach the end zone again until there were less than four minutes remaining in the fourth quarter. In their first home game this season - a 34-16 loss against Tulsa - the Spartans didn't reach the end zone until over halfway through the second quarter and then not again until there were less than three minutes left in the fourth quarter. Look for New Mexico to do a good job of shortening this game by churning out long drives, which obviously works in our favor with a play on the underdog. Take New Mexico (10*). |
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10-03-19 | Rams v. Seahawks UNDER 49.5 | 29-30 | Loss | -109 | 34 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Seattle at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. The Rams are coming off a ridiculously high-scoring game in a stunning home loss to the Bucs last Sunday afternoon but I'm not about to write off this defense. Facing a familiar division opponent should be just what the doctor ordered in this 'get right' matchup for the defense. This is by no means an easy challenge as the Seahawks offense has been rolling along but I do think the Rams will be up for it. On the flip side, the Seattle defense is coming off a stellar performance in Arizona last Sunday and will no question feed off the energy of the home crowd here, especially considering the last time they played on this field things did not go well against the Saints. We saw two high-scoring games between these two teams last season but that hasn't been the norm in this series. I'm not sure either squad is interested in a shootout traveling on a short week with a lot on the line in-division. Take the under (10*). |
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10-03-19 | Temple -10.5 v. East Carolina | 27-17 | Loss | -105 | 35 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Temple minus the points over East Carolina at 8 pm et on Thursday. Temple has absolutely owned this series, reeling off five straight double-digit victories in five meetings since 2014. The Owls are off to a 3-1 start this season but haven't looked all that impressive in getting there. Here, on the national stage on Thursday night, I look for them to get loose against an East Carolina squad that isn't as good as it 3-2 record would seem to indicate. We were on the 'over' in East Carolina's narrow 24-21 win over Old Dominion last Saturday. That was by no means an impressive victory as neither team was able to get anything going in a truly ugly affair. Save for a 48-point outburst against FCS squad Gardner-Webb, the Pirates offense has been non-existent this season. The game script should set up well for the Owls to ultimately put this game away with a dynamic offense that has yet to really get rolling this season. Veteran QB Adam Russo got bogged down against Georgia Tech last week but has still thrown 10 touchdowns through four games this season. Meanwhile, RB Re'Mahn Davis is coming off a breakout 135-yards, two-touchdown performance against the Yellow Jackets and should run wild on an ECU defense that got torched for 315 yards on the ground against Navy earlier this season. Take Temple (10*). |
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10-03-19 | Georgia Southern v. South Alabama OVER 45.5 | Top | 20-17 | Loss | -112 | 34 h 46 m | Show |
CFB Sun Belt Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Georgia Southern and South Alabama at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. We're looking at a low total here largely due to the fact that these two teams have just two wins between them and both have been wildly inconsistent, and downright awful at times, on the offensive side of the football. I do have confidence in the quarterback play on both sides, however, and think this total should be set in the 50's - noting that last year's meeting produced north of 60 points in a Georgia Southern blowout. I do anticipate a more competitive affair here. South Alabama has the pieces in place on offense for a breakout with QB Cephus Johnson making strides and showing his ability to move the football on the ground and RB Tra Minter one of the most overlooked and underrated running backs in the country who is also capable of contributing big plays in the return game. Georgia Southern should have little trouble moving the football with QB Shai Werts leading the charge. The Jaguars possess one of the weaker defenses in the nation and didn't have a hope of slowing the Eagles offense last season. I don't see much changing here for the Jags on the defensive side of the football. Take the over (10*). |
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09-30-19 | Bengals v. Steelers -3 | 3-27 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Pittsburgh minus the points over Cincinnati at 8:15 pm et on Monday. After cashing with Pittsburgh in an ATS but not SU victory in San Francisco last Sunday, I like the Steelers to cover the number again, albeit as a favorite this time around. This is an excellent matchup for the Steelers defense to absolutely tee off on a Bengals offensive line that has struggled to open up running lanes for Joe Mixon while also allowing opponents to get a ton of pressure on QB Andy Dalton. Should the Steelers build a lead they'll be able to pin their ears back and force a key turnover or two as this game progresses. On the flip side, the Steelers offense will likely go back to basics here and let RB James Conner go to work against a Bengals defense that has surrendered a whopping 5.2 yards per rush this season. Last week's matchup wasn't good for Steelers QB Mason Rudolph but he should bounce back against a much more favorable draw here. Cincinnati has not done a good job of generating pressure on opposing quarterbacks, recording just five sacks so far this season. Take Pittsburgh (10*). |
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09-29-19 | Bucs v. Rams UNDER 50 | 55-40 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Tampa Bay and Los Angeles at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. This total checks in much higher than I expected, largely due to the shootout with the Giants the Bucs were involved in last Sunday afternoon. Here, I look for Tampa Bay to have a tough time getting anything going offensively against an elite Rams defense. Head coach Bruce Arians would be wise to dial back QB Jameis Winston here in an effort to at least sustain some drives and avoid costly turnovers. While Los Angeles has the potential to explode offensively in this one, it doesn’t have a track record of embarrassing the opposition. Tampa Bay has actually done a nice job of holding enemy running backs in check this season and the Rams aren’t likely to completely abandon their ground game in this one, opening the door for some long, clock-churning drives. Take the under (10*). |
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09-29-19 | Bucs v. Rams -9 | Top | 55-40 | Loss | -102 | 26 h 39 m | Show |
NFL NFC Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Tampa Bay at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. This game has blowout written all over it as the Rams return home following a business-like 20-13 win in Cleveland last Sunday night. Los Angeles used a supreme defensive effort to hold off a hungry Browns squad in that one but here should be able to get loose offensively, particularly through the air against a struggle Bucs pass defense. On the flip side, I don’t see the Bucs accomplishing much in this one with the Rams outstanding secondary likely to take care of business against the dynamic duo of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Tampa Bay’s ground game is a virtual non-factor and playing from behind on Sunday isn’t likely to change that. Look for another dominant performance from the Rams as they remain undefeated with another convincing win. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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09-29-19 | Panthers v. Texans OVER 47 | 16-10 | Loss | -115 | 23 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Carolina and Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday. We won with the ‘over’ in the Panthers blowout win in Arizona last week while just missing with the same play in the Texans impressive road win over the Chargers. The latter game appeared headed well north of the total before things ground to a halt in the fourth quarter. I’m not anticipating a similar story to unfold here. This is another fine matchup for Panthers backup QB Kyle Allen, who delivered a truly impressive performance, albeit against a very beatable Cardinals defense last week. The Panthers speed at the wide receiver position is likely to give the Texans fits here while RB Christian McCaffrey should have little trouble both on the ground and through the air against a defense that has been very vulnerable against opposing running backs this season. It’s always a bit of a leap of faith when supporting the Texans offense, due to a couple of reasons, the least of which being the play-calling of Bill O’Brien and the other the issues on the offensive line. Houston did seem to sort out its o-line issues in last week’s game and the pure talent of QB Deshaun Watson and WR DeAndre Hopkins always helps limit the worry around this offense in general. Take the over (10*). |
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09-29-19 | Chiefs -7 v. Lions | 34-30 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on Kansas City minus the points over Detroit at 1 pm et on Sunday. Perhaps due to their weak defense and the surprising start of the Lions, the Chiefs remain a relatively short road favorite in Detroit on Sunday afternoon. We won with the Lions in their upset victory in Philadelphia last week but that had more to do with the Eagles laundry list of injuries than anything else. This may be a showdown between two undefeated teams but they really couldn’t be at much more opposite ends of the spectrum offensively. The Chiefs just keep rolling along and catch the Lions in a tough spot with a number of key injuries on the defensive side of the football, the least concerning of which to CB Darius Slay. QB Patrick Mahomes should be in for another monster performance in ideal conditions at Ford Field on Sunday afternoon. Kansas City’s struggles defending the run will likely encourage the Lions, already a ‘run-first’ team, to pound the football on the ground here, but it’s the wrong move in my opinion as Detroit simply won’t be able to keep pace with an explosive Chiefs offense by running the football. Take Kansas City (10*). |
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09-29-19 | Redskins v. Giants OVER 48.5 | Top | 3-24 | Loss | -108 | 23 h 33 m | Show |
NFL NFC East Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Washington and New York at 1 pm et on Sunday. We won with the ‘over’ in the Redskins ugly, turnover-fueled blowout loss to the Bears on Monday night and I won’t hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Washington will certainly be taking a step down in class against the Giants defense, which has been repeatedly abused by opposing offenses this season. There’s no help coming for the G-Men in that department, in fact things could get even worse due to injuries at the linebacker position. Meanwhile, the New York offense got a major boost from rookie QB Daniel Jones last Sunday in Tampa and he’s primed for another big performance here. We saw New York TE Evan Engram absolutely explode against the Bucs last week and we can count on more of the same against the Redskins weak pass defense here. Even with the absence of all-world RB Saquon Barkley, look for the Giants offensive resurgence to continue for another week. Take the over (10*). |
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09-28-19 | Ohio State -17 v. Nebraska | 48-7 | Win | 100 | 22 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on Ohio State minus the points over Nebraska at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. Ohio State continues to steamroll inferior competition and while Nebraska looks like it poses a significant challenge on paper, I’m not sure it’s going to play out that way on the field. The Cornhuskers are coming off yet another offensive explosion last week, scoring 42 points in a road win over Illinois. QB Adrian Martinez has done it all on a weekly basis but I’m confident the Buckeyes can develop a gameplan to slow down the Huskers dynamic quarterback. The argument can certainly be made that Ohio State has been the most impressive team in college football so far this season, outscoring the opposition by a ridiculous 214-36 margin. This represents the Buckeyes first true test and I definitely believe they’ll be up for it, especially after narrowly escaping with a 36-31 in this same matchup last November. Lost in Nebraska’s hot start offensively has been its awful defensive play against any opponent with a pulse, giving up 34 points at Colorado and 38 at Illinois. Home cooking has been kind so far, but those performances came against South Alabama and Northern Illinois as double-digit favorites. Expect a different story to unfold here. Take Ohio State (10*). |
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09-28-19 | Ohio State v. Nebraska UNDER 67 | Top | 48-7 | Win | 100 | 22 h 22 m | Show |
CFB Big Ten Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Ohio State and Nebraska at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. We won with the ‘over’ in Ohio State’s last road game, a 51-10 win at Indiana two weeks ago. While I do expect to see another strong showing from the Buckeyes defense, I also look for Nebraska to feed off the energy of a raucous home crowd and at least hold their own defensively for a stretch in this one, which will be enough to keep the final score ‘under’ the inflated total. It’s hard to imagine any Ohio State total not being inflated at this point as the Buckeyes have scored an incredible 214 points through four games, looking virtually unstoppable in the process. I simply see this as the game where things settle down a little bit. I’m not sure Ohio State is interested in getting involved in another shootout with the Cornhuskers after narrowly escaping with a 36-31 victory in this matchup last November. Take the under (10*). |
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09-28-19 | Kansas State +4.5 v. Oklahoma State | 13-26 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on Kansas State plus the points over Oklahoma State at 7 pm et on Saturday. While Oklahoma State was involved in a shootout loss against rival Texas last Saturday, Kansas State was idle and enters this game with its undefeated record intact. The Wildcats have just one impressive win to their credit, that coming in their last game, a 31-24 win as a touchdown underdog at Mississippi State (we won with the ‘over’ in that game). I do like the way this one sets up for Kansas State as well as I expect it to run the football at will and control the clock, ultimately shortening this game against offensive-minded Oklahoma State. The Cowboys have a potent ground attack of their own but I suspect they’ll be in tough contending with a rested and ready Wildcats defense. Note that Kansas State held Mississippi State out of the end zone in the critical final 19 minutes of the game two weeks ago, after falling behind 21-17. Wildcats QB Skylar Thompson hasn’t been racking up the completions or yardage totals but has been efficient, throwing four touchdowns compared to no interceptions through three games. Take Kansas State (10*). |
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09-28-19 | East Carolina v. Old Dominion OVER 46.5 | 24-21 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between East Carolina and Old Dominion at 6 pm et on Saturday. We saw a wild, high-scoring affair between these two teams last September as East Carolina pulled out a 37-35 victory. While I’m not anticipating that level of shootout on this occasion, I do think the potential is there for this one to fly ‘over’ the relatively low posted total. Save for a 48-point outburst against FCS squad Gardner-Webb, East Carolina hasn’t been able to get much going offensively this season. It is, however, coming off a victory over William & Mary last week that saw it get a spark from its ground game and I see this as an excellent opportunity to build on that performance against an Old Dominion defense that has been better than advertised but may be in for a letdown here. Old Dominion has dropped back-to-back games at Virginia Tech and Virginia after opening its campaign with a field goal win over Norfolk State. The Monarchs games have been lower-scoring than expected on the whole which certainly helps our cause playing the ‘over’ in this one. Note that we played the ‘over’ in ODU’s 31-17 loss at Virginia Tech earlier this season, a game that fell just short of the total. The Monarchs allowed an offensive touchdown in all four quarters in that game. This is a smash spot for the ODU offense against a Pirates defense that has been crushed in its only two games against FBS competition, allowing a whopping 76 points against N.C. State and Navy. The 42 points ECU allowed at against Navy could have been even worse had the Midshipmen not eased off the gas after building a 39-point lead. Here, I’m anticipating a more competitive game and that lends itself to a high-scoring result. Take the over (10*). |
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09-28-19 | Arkansas v. Texas A&M UNDER 61 | 27-31 | Win | 100 | 15 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Texas A&M and Arkansas at 12 noon et on Saturday. This matchup produced just 41 total points last season and I believe oddsmakers are being very generous putting this total in the high-50’s on Saturday. Texas A&M has exploded against the likes of Texas State and Lamar but has been held at bay in both of its ‘step-up’ games against Clemson and Auburn. Of course, those latter two opponents are two of the best teams in the entire country and Arkansas is far from their level. With that being said this is a strong motivational spot for the Razorbacks at home off a poor showing against San Jose State on this field just last week. I’m confident the ‘Hogs will hold their own defensively but not so sold on their offense which has been completely held at bay in two of four games this season, including a matchup against Ole Miss in which they didn’t score an offensive touchdown until the game’s final two minutes. Last week we saw Arkansas score a touchdown with about a minute left in the first quarter but then didn’t reach the end zone again until the first two minutes of the fourth quarter – and that was against a San Jose State squad that had given up 34 points in a blowout loss against Tulsa the game previous. I don’t see the Razorbacks busting out offensively against an Aggies team that is better than their 2-2 record indicates. Take the under (10*). |
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09-27-19 | Duke v. Virginia Tech OVER 52 | 45-10 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Duke and Virginia Tech at 7 pm et on Friday. With Virginia Tech coming off back-to-back relatively low-scoring contests here in Blacksburg we're dealing with a reasonably low total as the Hokies host the Blue Devils on Friday night. I'm anticipating plenty of offense, however. Note that Virginia Tech has scored at least an offensive touchdown in all four quarters of two of its three games to date this season. Last time out against Furman, the Hokies got off to a very slow start but ultimately rallied to score three second half touchdowns in a narrow victory. Save for a beatdown at the hands of Alabama back in Week 1 (in which it gave up five offensive touchdowns in the second and third quarters) Duke hasn't really been tested defensively with its last two wins coming against North Carolina A&T and Middle Tennessee. Offensively, the Blue Devils haven't really missed a beat without QB Daniel Jones, with Quentin Harris passing for nearly 600 yards and eight touchdowns over the last two games. The last meeting between these two teams totaled just 45 points last September but that only serves to keep this total in a reasonable range. Take the over (10*). |
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09-26-19 | Eagles v. Packers OVER 46 | 34-27 | Win | 100 | 23 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and Green Bay at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. The Packers offense has seemingly gotten better with each passing week in this, the first year of the Matt LaFleur era. That's not saying a lot as they've topped out at 27 points, but I see this as an absolute smash spot against a struggling and undermanned Eagles defense on Thursday night. The Philadelphia secondary is injury-ravaged and it certainly showed in last week's 27-24 loss to the previously offensively-challenged Lions, at home no less. It's hard to envision the Eagles figuring things out defensively playing on the road on a short week. On a positive note, Philadelphia is expected to have WR Alshon Jeffery back in the fold after he missed last week's game. I still have confidence in the Eagles offense, even with the rash of injuries that unit has dealt with. Note that while the Packers defense has been outstanding, they have still managed to allow exactly 16 points in back-to-back home games against the Vikings and Broncos, with opposing quarterbacks Kirk Cousins and Joe Flacco turning in dismal performances. I do think we'll see the Eagles beat that point production in this one, which should put us in good position to cash our 'over' ticket. Take the over (10*). |
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09-26-19 | Navy v. Memphis OVER 53 | 23-35 | Win | 100 | 36 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Navy and Memphis at 8 pm et on Thursday. We saw a relatively low-scoring affair between these two teams in last year's meeting as Navy prevailed by a 22-21 score. Both the Midshipmen and Tigers enter this contest with undefeated records but their early schedules have been admittedly soft. With both coming off bye weeks they'll be eager to get rolling again here, and I'm anticipating a competitive, high-scoring contest. We certainly haven't seen the best from either offense in the early going this season, which is saying something considering Navy has scored 87 points through two games while Memphis has put up a whopping 97 points in its last two contests. While the Memphis ground game is capable of cranking it up against any opponent, I think this is the game where we'll see Tigers QB Brady White move the football at will against the Navy secondary. The question is whether Navy can keep up as a double-digit underdog. I do believe the Midshipmen will find some success offensively with QB Malcolm Perry rounding back into form. Last season was a general disappointment for the Middies offense but they're off to a solid start this year with Perry coming off a 156-yard, four touchdown rushing day against East Carolina last time out, adding two touchdowns through the air as well. I had this total pegged in the high-50's so I'm willing to take a shot at the current number. Take the over (10*). |
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09-23-19 | Bears v. Redskins OVER 41 | 31-15 | Win | 100 | 82 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Washington at 8:15 pm et on Monday. The Bears offense has looked downright awful through two games this season but you have to consider the fact that they've had a tough draw, facing two tough defensive opponents in the Packers (who have been better than expected in that department) and the Broncos (in Denver). Here, I look for the Chicago offense, and QB Mitch Trubisky in particular, to get loose against a Redskins defense that has been awful for the most part through two games. Washington has played reasonably well defensively for stretches but even with that, has still given up a whopping 63 points. The Redskins have allowed 4.7 yards per rush so far this season and that should really help open things up for RB David Montgomery, who is coming off a nice performance last week in Denver. Chicago will be a popular road favorite play here but I'm not convinced it will be able to run away and hide on what will certainly be a highly-motivated and desperate Redskins squad off to an 0-2 start. Redskins QB Case Keenum has actually played pretty well when his team has been trailing in the early going this season, closing each of the last two games with late fourth quarter touchdown passes. He and WR Terry McLaurin have built a nice chemistry and can have continued success, even in a tough matchup here. Take the over (10*). |
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09-22-19 | Rams -3 v. Browns | 20-13 | Win | 100 | 59 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Cleveland at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. This is a tough spot for the Browns, returning home on a short week to face one of the league's best teams, and potentially doing so without a number of key cogs. Cleveland enters this game banged-up after Monday's win over the Jets, losing TE David Njoku and OLB Christian Kirksey to injuries in that game. The Rams come in relatively healthy and off an easier-than-expected home win over the Saints thanks to Drew Brees' injury. The Browns will certainly be up for this opportunity to prove that all of the preseason hype was warranted but the fact is, they haven't looked very good through two games, and I don't believe they can hang around for 60 minutes against a vastly superior team. Yes, Rams QB Jared Goff has struggled in games such as this, on the road in primetime, but that has little bearing here as he's a more experienced quarterback now and figures to have learned how to better handle these situations. Los Angeles is well-positioned to move to 3-0 on Sunday night. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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09-22-19 | Texans v. Chargers OVER 48 | 27-20 | Loss | -119 | 55 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Houston and Los Angeles at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. This is another game that has major shootout potential on Sunday afternoon. The Texans are coming off one of the uglier games we’ve seen through the first two weeks of the season last week, barely eking out a win over the Jaguars at home. Here, I look for a much more explosive performance against a Chargers defense that has struggled in the early going this season, particularly against the run. It’s that lack of run defense (allowing over five yards per rush) that should open the door for Watson to have a monster day. Los Angeles simply doesn’t have anyone in the secondary that can contend with WR DeAndre Hopkins or even Will Fuller. On the flip side, the Chargers offense had a tough time in Detroit last week but catches a soft draw here as the Texans have allowed opposing rushers to gain 5.5 yards per rush. RB Austin Ekeler has made Chargers fans forget all about contract holdout Melvin Gordon and should continue to play a major factor in this week’s game against Houston. QB Philip Rivers hasn’t appeared to miss a step and should have little trouble tearing apart a weak Texans secondary with the help of WR Keenan Allen, who is healthy and appears to be in midseason form. I’m confident the losing squad gets well into the 20’s which suits our purposes just fine. Take the over (10*). |
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09-22-19 | Steelers +7 v. 49ers | 20-24 | Win | 100 | 55 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Pittsburgh plus the points over San Francisco at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. Most are quick to write off the Steelers after losing QB Ben Roethlisberger for the season in last week’s home loss to the Seahawks. I’m not sure we’re going to see much of a dropoff in offensive production with backup QB Mason Rudolph at the helm, however. It’s not as if Big Ben was lighting it up for the Steelers in early action this season. In fact, it was Rudolph that gave the team a major spark and moved the football at will after entering last week’s game. It appears Steelers RB James Conner will be good to go this week after an injury scare. Even if he can’t, the Steelers have excellent depth at the position with Jaylen Samuels a dynamic playmaker as well. San Francisco came up with a nice blowout win in Cincinnati last week, moving to a surprising 2-0 on the season. Let’s not get carried away with that result, however, as the Bengals figure to be a bottom-tier team. The Steelers aren’t about to completely shut down the 49ers offense on the road this week, but I do look for them to bounce back from consecutive awful performances against the Patriots and Seahawks in what was certainly a difficult two-game slate to open the campaign. Simply put, we’re being given too many points in a game that could go either way. Take Pittsburgh (10*). |
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09-22-19 | Saints v. Seahawks -4 | 33-27 | Loss | -110 | 55 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle minus the points over New Orleans at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. New Orleans stays on the west coast for a second straight week after suffering a loss against the Rams in Los Angeles last Sunday afternoon. The Saints will have to go forward without their heart and soul, QB Drew Brees, and that doesn’t bode well as their backups Teddy Bridgewater and Taysom Hill represent a major dropoff in talent (and likely production) as far as I’m concerned. Head coach Sean Payton wouldn’t even confirm that Bridgewater is his starter for this game and that’s not encouraging. Yes, the Saints still have plenty of talent, but this is a tough draw against a Seahawks squad that is off to a terrific start to the season. Seattle’s defensive strength has been against the run in the early going this season, holding the opposition to 3.75 yards per rush. If the Seahawks can keep Saints RB Alvin Kamara in check in this one that will obviously go a long way toward securing a victory. New Orleans hasn’t shown any semblance of a run defense through two games, giving up nearly six yards per rush and things aren’t going to get any easier now that LB Alex Anzalone is sidelined. The Seahawks offensive balance should give the Saints defense fits in this game and it’s hard not to like what we’ve seen from QB Russell Wilson who is off to one of the best starts of his career. He and WR Tyler Lockett are completely in sync right now and the Saints will be hard-pressed to keep them in check here. Take Seattle (10*). |
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09-22-19 | Panthers v. Cardinals OVER 43.5 | Top | 38-20 | Win | 100 | 55 h 39 m | Show |
NFL NFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Carolina and Arizona at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. With the Panthers likely to be without QB Cam Newton and both of these teams coming off relatively low-scoring ‘under’ results last week, we’re being given a very reasonable total to work with here. I’m actually anticipating a bit of a shootout to develop here and will gladly play the ‘over’ at the number being offered. Panthers backup QB Kyle Allen doesn’t really represent much of a downgrade from Newton considering how hobbled Cam looked in the early going this season. The Panthers still possess an excellent wide receiver corps not to mention one of the best running backs in the league in Christian McCaffrey. This is an excellent breakout spot for the Panthers offense against a Cardinals defense that has looked awful without Patrick Peterson and Robert Alford roaming the secondary. Carolina was expected to take a big step forward defensively considering the personnel moves it made in the offseason but so far, not so good as it has allowed opposing rushers to gain over 4.5 yards per rush and has by no means been a shut down unit against the pass. The Cardinals had a tough draw against the Ravens defense in Baltimore last Sunday but should bounce back here at home. Kyler Murray has turned in back-to-back 300+ yard passing games to open his career and he and WR Larry Fitzgerald should have a field day against the Panthers defense on Sunday afternoon. Don’t forget about Cards RB David Johnson either, who should have little trouble tuning up the Panthers struggling run defense. Take the over (10*). |
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09-22-19 | Raiders v. Vikings -8 | Top | 14-34 | Win | 100 | 52 h 43 m | Show |
NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Minnesota minus the points over Oakland at 1 pm et on Sunday. Fresh off an ugly loss against the rival Packers at Lambeau Field last Sunday this is an ideal ‘get right’ spot for the Vikings back home against the Raiders. Oakland got manhandled by the Chiefs in a game that could have been even more lopsided had Kansas City not taken its foot off the gas last week. Now the Raiders have to travel two time zones east for an early 12 noon local start on Sunday afternoon. There’s not much to get excited about when it comes to the Raiders offense and this is a brutal matchup against what will be a highly-motivated and ultra-talented Vikings defense. Minnesota employs a ‘run-first’ offense to be sure, but that’s fine as RB Dalvin Cook has arguably been the best back in football so far this season. He should have little trouble putting this game away when called upon on Sunday afternoon but before that look for QB Kirk Cousins to bounce back from last week’s no-show in Green Bay with an efficient afternoon under center. Take Minnesota (10*). |
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09-21-19 | Notre Dame v. Georgia UNDER 58.5 | Top | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 71 h 58 m | Show |
CFB TV Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Notre Dame and Georgia at 8 pm et on Saturday. The last time these two teams met back in 2017 they combined to score just 39 points in a one-point Georgia victory. While many are expecting a much higher-scoring affair this time around, I don’t see it. Yes, Notre Dame is fresh off a 66-point explosion against New Mexico but the Lobos are one of the country’s weakest teams. Prior to that the Irish had their hands full on the road against Louisville, eventually pulling away for a 35-17 win. Georgia has taken full advantage of a fairly weak early-season schedule, scoring a combined 148 points in wins over Vanderbilt, Murray State and Arkansas State. Defensively, the Bulldogs haven’t really been tested but there’s no question this is an elite group. The same goes for the Irish, who save for a couple of lapses have been rock solid through two games. They did give up 17 points against a mediocre Louisville offense in Week 1, but it’s worth noting that after giving up two touchdowns in the game’s first 11 minutes, they held the Cardinals out of the end zone the rest of the way. Over their last 7+ quarters of action the Irish have allowed just two touchdowns. Take the under (10*). |
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09-21-19 | Baylor -26 v. Rice | 21-13 | Loss | -105 | 70 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Baylor minus the points over Rice at 7 pm et on Saturday. While we are being asked to lay a lot of points in this game, I believe the line could be even higher. Baylor is off to a perfect 2-0 start, beating up on Stephen F. Austin and Texas-San Antonio to the tune of a combined 119-31 score. Rice might actually be worse than both of those teams. I like the way Baylor has essentially ‘run up the score’ against its first two opponents, scoring three fourth quarter touchdowns despite those two contests having already been completely out of hand. While Rice comes in off physical affairs against Wake Forest and Texas in the last two weeks, Baylor is fresh off its bye week. The Owls “only” lost by 35 points last week against Texas, largely due to the Longhorns simply running out the clock in the last 20+ minutes of the game (they did score a kick return touchdown in the game’s final minute). Save for a strong showing against Army’s option-based offense in Week 1, the Owls haven’t had any luck slowing opposing offenses. They particularly struggle against teams that can air it out and Baylor certainly falls in that category. Note that over its last two games, Rice has allowed opposing quarterbacks to go 49-of-61 passing for 650 yards, six touchdowns an no interceptions. Baylor QB Charlie Brewer is still rounding into form but has already thrown for six touchdowns an no interceptions through two games. His efficiency will only improve (he’s 33-of-47 passing for 362 yards so far) and I fully expect to see him dominate the Owls secondary in this contest. Take Baylor (10*). |
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09-21-19 | SMU v. TCU UNDER 55.5 | 41-38 | Loss | -108 | 67 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between SMU and TCU at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. I absolutely love the way the ‘under’ sets up in this one as the undefeated Mustangs and Horned Frogs go head-to-head in Texas. SMU has absolutely shredded opposing defenses through three games, racking up 133 points. Keep in mind, those performances came against the likes of Arkansas State, North Texas and Texas State. This will certainly be the Mustangs toughest test to date against a terrific TCU defense. The Horned Frogs have allowed just 20 points through two games. Last time out against Purdue, TCU didn’t allow a touchdown until the final four minutes of the fourth quarter when the game was already well out of hand. The Horned Frogs will certainly have their guard up against undefeated SMU and its high-octane offense. While the Mustangs aren’t known for their defensive ability and have given up 74 points through three games there is some reason for optimism here. Even when SMU gave up 30 points at Arkansas State in Week 1 it gave up a touchdown in the game’s first two minutes before holding the Red Wolves out of the end zone again until the third quarter. They gave up only two touchdowns in the first 58 minutes of the game against a good North Texas offense two weeks ago. My point is, they’re capable of holding up well for stretches and its not as if TCU is an offensive juggernaut. Last week at Purdue the Horned Frogs scored a touchdown in the final two minutes of the first quarter but didn’t find the end zone again until nearly midway through the third quarter. Even in their home-opener against FCS squad Arkansas-Pine Bluff they managed just one touchdown until the final 10 seconds of the third quarter. Take the under (10*). |
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09-21-19 | Auburn v. Texas A&M OVER 47.5 | Top | 28-20 | Win | 100 | 66 h 28 m | Show |
CFB SEC Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Auburn and Texas A&M at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. This matchup didn’t develop into a shootout last year as Auburn prevailed by a 28-24 score. I do think the potential is there for this year’s meeting to play out a little differently, however. Auburn didn’t exactly come roaring out of the gates this season, needing a big fourth quarter rally to outlast Oregon by a 27-21 score back in Week 1. The Tigers followed that up with an unimpressive 24-6 win over Tulane but then got loose for a 55-16 rout of Kent State last Saturday. I believe that explosive performance last week, in which they scored two offensive touchdowns in three of four quarters, was just what the doctor ordered heading into this showdown. Texas A&M turned in a similar performance last week, blowing the doors off FCS squad Lamar 62-3. I liked the way the Aggies kept their foot on the gas in that contest, even scoring two fourth quarter touchdowns when the game was already completely out of hand. They may need all the offense they can get against Auburn this week. Texas A&M has actually held up quite well defensively through three games, although the loss to Clemson certainly could have been much worse had the Tigers not eased up after building a big second half lead (not to mention the fact that Clemson is still finding its offensive rhythm. Given the early season schedules, we really don’t know exactly how good either of these defenses are. I have more faith in the offenses ability to produce at this stage of the season. Take the over (10*). |
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09-21-19 | Western Michigan v. Syracuse OVER 65 | 33-52 | Win | 100 | 63 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Western Michigan and Syracuse at 12 noon et on Saturday. We missed the mark with the ‘over’ in Syracuse’s blowout loss at home against Clemson last Saturday night but despite that dud, I won’t hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Western Michigan will be Syracuse’s opponent this time around and the Broncos are off to an excellent offensive start, having scored 122 points through three games, albeit with most of the damage being done in matchups with Monmouth and Georgia State. Western Michigan was held to only 17 points in its lone road test to date, but that came against Michigan State in East Lansing – a tough challenge to be sure. Credit WMU for scoring a pair of touchdowns and putting together three scoring drives in that contest. Here, the Broncos should find the going much easier against a Syracuse squad that has only been able to slow down FCS opponent Liberty through three games this season. In the Orange’s other two contests they allowed a whopping 104 points against Maryland and Clemson. We saw the Syracuse offense get bogged down last Saturday but that was against one of the best defenses in college football in Clemson. I fully expect a strong bounce-back performance against the Broncos. Note that two weeks ago against Michigan State, Western Michigan allowed three offensive touchdowns in the first quarter alone and six over the course of the game. The Broncos have really had a tough time containing opposing ground games so far this season and will have their hands full again at the Carrier Dome. This one has true shootout potential noting that last year’s meeting produced 97 points. Take the over (10*). |
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09-20-19 | Air Force v. Boise State OVER 55 | Top | 19-30 | Loss | -109 | 82 h 1 m | Show |
CFB MWC Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Air Force and Boise State at 9 pm et on Friday. We saw a shootout between these two teams last year as Boise State prevailed by a 48-38 score in a wild contest. I expect more of the same as the Falcons and Broncos do battle on Friday night in Boise. We won with Air Force in its outright underdog victory on the road against Colorado last Saturday. That win didn’t come easy as the Falcons coughed up a 13-point lead in the fourth quarter before winning in overtime. This is an experienced Air Force offense that is operating at a high-level running the option. Remember, in its season-opener it put together five touchdown drives in the first half alone, albeit against FCS squad Colgate. Here, the Falcons know they’ll need to put 7’s on the board on most drives in order to keep up with the Broncos. Boise State is off to a perfect 3-0 start this season but after scoring 36 points in its season-opening win at Florida State, it has sputtered a bit, scoring 59 points in its last two wins over Marshall and Portland State, both at home. The last time we saw the Broncos on national TV they managed only 14 points in the victory over Marshall. I look for them to find a lot more success moving the ball against a middle-of-the-road Air Force defense. I liked the way Boise State worked sophomore dual-threat QB Chase Cord into the action last week against Portland State. He essentially took over the game late, throwing for two touchdowns and running for another. His presence gives the Broncos offense another element that Air Force will need to prepare for after really struggling defensively in this matchup a year ago. Credit Boise State for giving up just 17 points in its last two games but I don’t believe those results necessarily mean its defense is elite. As a single-digit favorite at home, I don’t think we’re going to see the Broncos run away and hide in this one, and that lends itself to a high-scoring affair on the blue turf. Take the over (10*). |
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09-19-19 | Titans v. Jaguars UNDER 39.5 | 7-20 | Win | 100 | 23 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Tennessee and Jacksonville at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. This total is about as low as it gets in today's NFL but it's warranted in my opinion. We're talking about two teams that have no interest in speeding things up due in large part to their 'game manager' quarterbacks. Titans QB Marcus Mariota missed practice earlier this week and might not be at full speed on Thursday night, further hampering an already-below average Tennessee offense. Yes, RB Derrick Henry absolutely ran wild against the Jags in a Thursday night matchup last December but don't count on history repeating itself here. The Jags have already had their season derailed, first with the injury to QB Nick Foles and then with star corner Jalen Ramsey asking to be traded. For now Ramsey is still on the team and he should play a big part in slowing the Titans on Thursday night. Tennessee's defense catches a matchup it can handle here with Jags backup QB Gardner Minshew a 'dink-and-dunk' type of player. Look for the Titans to stack the box against Jags RB Leonard Fournette and force Minshew to beat them through the air in this one. Take the under (10*). |
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09-19-19 | Houston v. Tulane UNDER 56.5 | Top | 31-38 | Loss | -110 | 58 h 44 m | Show |
CFB AAC Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Houston and Tulane at 8 pm et on Thursday. We’ve split a couple of totals plays on games involving Houston this season, playing the ‘over’ on both occasions. Here, I’m anticipating a lower-scoring affair as the Cougars travel to face upstart Tulane. Despite scoring 92 points through three games this season, the Houston offense really hasn’t been all that imposing. In their opener at Oklahoma, the Cougars didn’t find the end zone until less than five minutes were left in the first half. They turned in a terrific stretch of offensive football early against FCS squad Prairie View A&M the next week but didn’t reach the end zone after the game’s first 20 minutes. Last Friday night against Washington State the Cougars put together two touchdown drives in the second quarter but didn’t find the end zone again until there were two minutes left in the fourth quarter. You get the picture. Tulane is coming off a 58-point explosion last week, but that came against FCS squad Missouri State. Note that the Green Wave have yet to have a quarterback throw for more than 200 yards or anyone rush for 100 yards in their first three contests. Tulane has taken care of business against the opponents it should but scored just six points in its lone loss, a 24-6 setback at Tulane two weeks ago. The Green Wave defense has been as good as advertised, giving up just 40 points through three games, including only 24 at the Hands of Auburn. In that game against the Tigers, they held QB Bo Nix to just 19-of-37 passing for 207 yards and limited lead rusher JaTarvious Whitlow to less than 100 yards on the ground. Houston took this matchup in blowout fashion last year, 48-17. I’m anticipating a much tighter affair here. Take the under (10*). |
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09-16-19 | Browns -6 v. Jets | 23-3 | Win | 100 | 22 h 0 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland minus the points over New York at 8:15 pm et on Monday. This is essentially a must-win game for the Browns facing a Jets squad that will be missing its starting quarterback Sam Darnold among others. While New York does still have some upside with RB Le'Veon Bell cleared to play after undergoing an MRI on his shoulder last week, we can count on the Browns focusing their entire defensive gameplan on taking Bell away and forcing backup QB Trevor Siemian to beat them. Note that Bell played 100% of the snaps in the Jets Week 1 loss against Buffalo. It's hard to say if he'll be as explosive here given he didn't play a single snap a year ago. Cleveland's offensive line is terrible. Let's get that straight. I do believe we'll see QB Baker Mayfield turn in a strong bounce-back performance here, however, as his terrific wide receiving corps should have a field day against a weak Jets secondary. RB Nick Chubb is more than capable of putting this game away against an undermanned Jets run defense that is missing a couple of key cogs in C.J. Mosley and Quinnen Williams. Take Cleveland (10*). |
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09-15-19 | Eagles v. Falcons OVER 52.5 | 20-24 | Loss | -108 | 23 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and Atlanta at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. This has the potential to be a fun Sunday night shootout between two NFC squads coming off much different results last week. Philadelphia needed a big second half rally to outlast Washington, at home no less. While the Eagles offense got rolling as the game progressed, we saw some major cracks in their defensive armor, particularly in the secondary - as expected. The Eagles vaunted pass rush was a no-show and if they can't right the ship here they'll be in for a long night against a still-loaded Falcons offense that is in line for a strong bounce-back performance at home. Atlanta couldn't get anything going last week in Minnesota and the Vikings controlled proceedings thanks to a highly-effective ground game. Here, I do look for the Falcons to see a lot more opportunities on offense - and to make the most of those with WR Julio Jones in line for a monster performance against a very beatable Eagles secondary. Last week's primetime games were generally low-scoring but I look for a different story to unfold here. Take the over (10*). |
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09-15-19 | Chiefs -7 v. Raiders | Top | 28-10 | Win | 101 | 19 h 5 m | Show |
AFC West Game of the Year. My selection is on Kansas City minus the points over Oakland at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. We won with the ‘over’ in the Chiefs season-opening win in Jacksonville and I won’t hesitate to get involved in their Week 2 game as well, laying the points in this spot. Kansas City looked every bit as dominant offensively as it did a year ago last week against the Jaguars, putting up 40 points without barely breaking a sweat. With that being said, the news wasn’t all good as the Chiefs did lose WR Tyreek Hill to an injury that will cost him at least a month of action. It’s obviously not the end of the world, however, as Kansas City is by no means short on offensive depth. WR Sammy Watkins turned in one of the best performances of Week 1 and now it might just be rookie WR Mecole Hardman’s turn to bust out. Regardless how the Chiefs choose to attack the Raiders defense, I’m confident they’ll have plenty of success, noting that they scored 75 points in two meetings with Oakland last season. The Raiders are coming off a win but I certainly didn’t come away overly impressed as they were essentially handed that game by the Broncos, who simply didn’t show up. QB Derek Carr was efficient in the win but again relied on a slow-paced, conservative offensive gameplan – something that simply isn’t going to translate success against a Chiefs squad that can seemingly score at will. Oakland’s Monday night victory was probably the best thing we could have hoped for as it helps to keep this line in check. The Chiefs have blowout potential most weeks and this one is no exception. Take Kansas City (10*). |
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09-15-19 | Cardinals v. Ravens OVER 46 | 17-23 | Loss | -109 | 16 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Arizona and Baltimore at 1 pm et on Sunday. Most are quick to dismiss the Ravens’ 59-point outburst in Miami last week, citing the fact that the Dolphins are the worst team to grace the NFL in quite some time. While there may be some truth to that, this matchup actually sets up almost as well for the Ravens offense as they return home in excellent position to crush the Cardinals below-average defense. Arizona allowed Lions QB Matt Stafford to throw for just shy of 400 yards last week, albeit aided by overtime. As long as Patrick Peterson and Steven Alford remain sidelined, the Arizona defense is going to have a nightmarish time trying to slow down opposing passing games. Lost in the Ravens air show last week was the fact that RB Mark Ingram gained 107 yards and scored two touchdowns on just 14 carries. Cards rookie QB Kyler Murray got off to a rough start to his NFL career last week but did settle in as the game progressed and ultimately developed a nice rapport with Larry Fitzgerald and Christian Kirk. Murray catches a break here, facing the Ravens without their secondary at full strength after losing Tavon Young and Jimmy Smith. Of course the Cardinals offensive line remains a concern but in a game that projects to be lopsided in favor of Baltimore, I suspect Murray will have ample opportunity to air it out, noting that the Cards play at an extremely quick tempo. I’m not all that comfortable laying double-digits at this early stage of the season so instead we’ll bank on the Ravens doing their thing offensively while the Cards contribute enough to help this one ‘over’ the reasonable total. Take the over (10*). |
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09-15-19 | Colts v. Titans UNDER 44 | 19-17 | Win | 100 | 16 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Indianapolis and Tennessee at 1 pm et on Sunday. This has the potential to be one of the lowest-scoring games on the board in Week 2 after both teams saw relatively high-scoring results in Week 1. Both the Colts and Titans are going to employ "run-first" offenses this year, and that was evident last week. While I do believe Colts RB Marlon Mack and Titans RB Derrick Henry can both find some room to run (and catch) in this particular matchup, I don't think that's a bad thing for us as it helps keep the clock moving. I do question whether we'll see quarterbacks Jacoby Brissett and Marcus Mariota end a lot of drives with 7's on the board rather than 3's. Note that the Colts lost WR Devin Funchess to broken collarbone last week after he had gotten off to a nice start with Brissett. Meanwhile, the Titans pass-catching group is as weak as it gets once you move from TE Delanie Walker, who has served as Mariota's security blanket, so to speak. I believe we're getting a favorable total here thanks to an overreaction to Week 1 results. Take the under (10*). |
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09-15-19 | Patriots v. Dolphins UNDER 49 | 43-0 | Win | 100 | 15 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New England and Miami at 1 pm et on Sunday. Most are expecting an absolute annihilation in this game, and rightfully so. With that being said, I prefer to focus on the total, where I think there is considerable value with the 'under'. Keep in mind, Dolphins head coach Brian Flores is a disciple of Bill Bellichick and I'm not convinced Bill will be all that interested in running up the score in this particular matchup. The Dolphins got caught flat-footed defensively against Lamar Jackson and the Ravens last week. I look for them to come in a little better-prepared to face the division rival Patriots here. Offensively, don't count on the Dolphins gaining any sort of traction against a still-underrated Patriots defense. Miami couldn't get much going last week and will find the going even tougher in this one. Look for the Dolphins to make a concerted effort to control the clock and do everything they can to keep Tom Brady off the field. It won't translate to a win, but I do look for it to result in a lower-scoring contest than most are expecting. Take the under (10*). |
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09-15-19 | Seahawks v. Steelers OVER 46.5 | Top | 28-26 | Win | 100 | 16 h 2 m | Show |
NFL Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Seattle and Pittsburgh at 1 pm et on Sunday. I absolutely love the way this game sets up as a high-scoring affair at Heinz Field in Pittsburgh. The Seahawks got more than they bargained for at home against the Bengals last Sunday but did manage to pull out a 21-20 victory. The fact that they allowed only 20 points in that contest was a flattering result based on how their defense actually played on the field. The Steelers defense took a beating at Foxborough last Sunday night, suffering an ugly 33-3 loss. This is a more favorable draw at home facing a Seahawks team traveling from the west coast but I still expect Pittsburgh to give up its share of points in this one. Look for strong performances from QB Russell Wilson and WR Tyler Lockett in as Lockett matches up tremendously well and will be eager to rebound following last Sunday’s no-show (the Bengals defense keyed on him early and never let up). The Steelers were taken completely out of their gameplan last Sunday night as they fell behind early and never recovered. I don’t believe there’s any reason to panic, however, as Pittsburgh boasts a loaded offense that should thrive in this matchup. RB James Conner and WR JuJu Smith-Schuster are two of the game’s best players at their respective positions and JuJu in particular should have no trouble breaking loose against a weak Seattle secondary, which in turn should set things up nicely for Conner in a game where he should see heavy usage. This one has all the makings of a shootout. Take the over (10*). |
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09-14-19 | Clemson v. Syracuse OVER 62.5 | 41-6 | Loss | -105 | 79 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Clemson and Syracuse at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. I’m expecting a shootout at the Carrier Dome on Saturday night as Clemson puts its undefeated record on the line against Syracuse. Despite scoring 76 points through their first two games, the Tigers actually haven’t been operating at a truly high level offensively just yet. QB Trevor Lawrence has completed just 37-of-58 passes for 436 yards, two touchdowns and a surprisingly three interceptions through two games but I look for a big bounce-back performance in ideal conditions inside the Carrier Dome on Saturday. After cruising to a shutout win over FCS squad Liberty in its opener, Syracuse got rolled by a 63-20 score at Maryland last week. The Tigers gave up six touchdowns in the first half alone in that game and don’t appear well-suited to slow down the multi-faceted Tigers offensive attack here. We can count on the Orange to at least try to keep pace here, noting that they did score two touchdowns in the first quarter-and-a-half of last week’s game before things got completely out of hand. A return home should certainly help their cause as this team is built for the fast track. Clemson’s defense was certainly up for last week’s showdown with Texas A&M but we could certainly see a bit of a letdown in that regard here. Take the over (10*). |
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09-14-19 | Iowa v. Iowa State UNDER 45 | 18-17 | Win | 100 | 76 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Iowa and Iowa State at 4 pm et on Saturday. This has traditionally been a low-scoring matchup with last year’s meeting producing a grand total of just 16 points. Iowa was involved in a higher-scoring game than expected in its season-opener, defeating Miami-Ohio by a 38-14 score. It’s worth noting that there were only 17 points scored in the first half of that contest. Iowa didn’t manage to find the end zone until nearly halfway through the second quarter. Again last week we saw the Hawkeyes offense sputter a bit as it scored two early touchdowns but then went from midway through the second quarter until less than three minutes remaining in the third quarter to reach the end zone again. They ultimately won that game by a 30-0 score over Rutgers. Iowa State hasn’t played since pulling out a 29-26 triple-overtime win over FCS squad Northern Iowa back on August 31st. That game saw just 26 points scored in regulation time. Iowa State didn’t register a touchdown until midway through the third quarter. The Cyclones didn’t actually give up an offensive touchdown until the second overtime period in that game. Take the under (10*). |
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09-14-19 | UNLV v. Northwestern UNDER 54 | 14-30 | Win | 100 | 75 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between UNLV and Northwestern at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. UNLV is coming off back-to-back relatively high-scoring games to open the season but both of those came at home. After scoring a whopping 56 points in a season-opening win over FCS squad Southern Utah the Rebels were brought right back to Earth in a 43-17 loss to Arkansas State last week. Note that UNLV didn’t actually allow an offensive touchdown in that game until over six minutes into the second quarter and that was against an underrated Arkansas State offense. Once the Red Wolves jumped ahead by a considerable margin the Rebels came unglued. Note that UNLV allowed a touchdown around six minutes into the second quarter against Southern Utah in its opener but then didn’t give up another touchdown until the fourth quarter. This week’s opponent, Northwestern, is by no means an offensive juggernaut. The Wildcats offense really struggled, albeit against a terrific defense, at Stanford in its season-opener. However, defensively give them credit as they allowed just one offensive touchdown in the entire game and that didn’t come until the final four minutes of the first half. Northwestern isn’t really the type of team that is likely to run away and hide, regardless of the level of competition and I don’t think the UNLV offense has enough to help this one ‘over’ the total. Take the under (10*). |
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09-14-19 | Air Force +4 v. Colorado | Top | 30-23 | Win | 100 | 73 h 41 m | Show |
CFB Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Air Force plus the points over Colorado at 1 pm et on Saturday. Air Force got a nice tune-up for this game last week as it rolled to a 48-7 win over Colgate in its season-opener. Not surprisingly, an offense that returns most of the talent from last year’s squad put together a touchdown drive just over four minutes into the game and then added four more in the second quarter. The Falcons held Colgate off the scoreboard entirely until the final 10 seconds of the third quarter. Colorado pulled a minor upset of Nebraska at home last week, rallying back from a 17-0 halftime deficit. I can’t help but feel a letdown could be in order here, however. Note that the Buffaloes didn’t find the end zone until the final two minutes of the third quarter in that game and then things essentially turned on a complete defensive breakdown by Nebraska in the first minute of the fourth quarter, as K.D. Nixon hauled in a 96-yard touchdown pass. The Falcons were awful against the pass last season but do return experience in the secondary and they’ll certainly be on guard against the Buffaloes strength, which is their passing game, in this one. Take Air Force (10*). |
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09-14-19 | Arkansas State v. Georgia UNDER 58 | 0-55 | Win | 100 | 72 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Arkansas State and Georgia at 12 noon et on Saturday. Arkansas State has been involved in back-to-back high-scoring games to open the season but those results weren’t unexpected against SMU and UNLV. Here, the Red Wolves will be taking a major step up in class on the road against Georgia and I don’t expect their offense to thrive as it has in the last two weeks. Keep in mind, last week against a bad UNLV defense, Arkansas State didn’t find the end zone on offense until nearly midway through the second quarter. In the Red Wolves season opener against SMU they scored a touchdown in the first two minutes of the game but then didn’t reach the end zone again until early in the third quarter. Defensively, the potential is certainly there for Arkansas State to get torched in this game but I do think its offense can do enough to control the clock somewhat and keep the Georgia offense off the field for stretches. What I’m not convinced of is that the Red Wolves can end those offensive drives with points on the board. Georgia has scored 93 points through two games but 63 of those came against FCS squad Murray State last week. That game essentially turned on an early second quarter fumble return for a touchdown from the Bulldogs. From there they absolutely exploded, scoring four offensive touchdowns in a seven-minute stretch in the second quarter. Through two games, Georgia has allowed only one offensive touchdown and that came on a defensive breakdown early in last week’s game against Murray State (60-yard touchdown pass). Take the under (10*). |
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09-14-19 | Maryland v. Temple OVER 63.5 | 17-20 | Loss | -112 | 72 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Maryland and Temple at 12 noon et on Saturday. This has the potential to be one of the higher-scoring games on Saturday’s board as far as I’m concerned. Maryland is due for a letdown after lighting up Howard and Syracuse for 142 points in its first two games. I don’t think this is the spot, however, as Temple hasn’t been tested, rolling to a 56-12 win over FCS opponent Bucknell last week. There’s no question the Owls were impressive in that victory as they scored three touchdowns in the game’s first 13 minutes and never let up, even scoring two fourth quarter touchdowns when they were already up by 30 points. Keep in mind, Temple has an experienced quarterback in Anthony Russo and he was on point last week, completing 32-of-41 passes for 409 yards, a touchdown and an interception. Maryland actually gave up two touchdowns in the first quarter-and-a-half against Syracuse last week before a couple of late first half touchdowns of its own put things out of reach. I liked the way the Terps kept pouring it on, scoring a pair of fourth quarter touchdowns after they had already built a 29-point advantage. Expect a shootout here. Take the over (10*). |
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09-14-19 | Kansas State v. Mississippi State OVER 52 | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 72 h 46 m | Show |
CFB Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘over’ between Kansas State and Mississippi State at 12 noon et on Saturday. Kansas State has feasted on a couple of inferior opponents to open the season, rolling to a 49-14 win over Nicholls State and a 52-0 shutout of Bowling Green. I like the way the Wildcats have gotten off to extremely fast starts, putting together five scoring drives in the first quarter of their first two games, including four offensive touchdowns. That’s certainly a promising start following a dismal offensive campaign a year ago. Ball State transfer RB James Gilbert has been a bright spot, racking up 218 rushing yards and three touchdowns on 26 carries. QB Skylar Thompson, albeit against inferior opposition, has seemingly found some rhythm, completing 26-of-35 passes for 363 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions. Now the Wildcats face a tougher test in SEC opponent Mississippi State, but I do think Kansas State can still keep it rolling offensively. Note that in the Bulldogs toughest test to date, they allowed 28 points against Louisiana-Lafayette. Last week they gave up only 15 points against Southern Miss, and none until less than five minutes were left in the third quarter but it is worth noting that the Eagles drove into Mississippi State territory in two of their first three drives, missing a field goal on one and giving up a fumble on another. Once the Bulldogs build a sizable lead Southern Miss completed abandoned its gameplan and couldn’t get anything more going on offense. Here, I’m obviously anticipating a more competitive affair and I believe that lends itself to a relatively high-scoring game between two offenses that have been very efficient in the early going. Take the over (10*). |
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09-13-19 | Washington State v. Houston OVER 75 | 31-24 | Loss | -109 | 84 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Washington State and Houston at 9:15 pm et on Friday. This matchup will be pegged as a shootout and that’s precisely how I expect it to play out on Friday night in Houston. Note that this game will be played in ideal conditions inside NRG Stadium, the home of the Houston Texans. Washington State is off to a 2-0 start but that was fully expected given it opened against New Mexico State and Northern Colorado. I do like the fact that despite being involved in two blowouts, the Cougars didn’t let up as those games progressed, scoring at least a touchdown in all eight quarters of football played this season. They know they’ll need to score early and often here as Houston has the personnel to match them touchdown for touchdown. Washington State QB Anthony Gordon has completed 60-of-74 passes for 884 yards, nine touchdowns and one interception through two games. Houston checks in sporting a 1-1 record, opening with a blowout loss at Oklahoma before bouncing back with a blowout win of its own against FCS squad Prairie View A&M last week. Cougars QB D’Eriq King has not performed particularly well through two games this season but I’m confident he can turn it around. The good news is the Houston ground game appears to be in midseason form and should open things up for King against Wazzu here. Even without King in top form, it took Houston less than a quarter to rack up 24 points last week. That game saw five scoring drives in the first quarter alone. The Cougars were able to ease off the gas pedal in that game, but that won’t be the case here. This total is high, but the number is warranted in my opinion. Take the over (10*). |
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09-13-19 | Kansas v. Boston College OVER 53 | 48-24 | Win | 100 | 82 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Kansas and Boston College at 7:30 pm et on Friday. High-scoring games should be the norm in games involving Boston College this season and while Kansas doesn’t look like a formidable opponent coming off a 12-7 loss to Coastal Carolina, I do think the Jayhawks can have enough offensive success to push this one ‘over’ the total. Note that Kansas did have RB Pooka Williams back following a one-game suspension last week and he ran for 99 yards on 22 carries. Senior RB Khalil Herbert has run for 170 yards and a touchdown through two games. The Jayhawks know they won’t be able to rely on their defense to keep them in this game as Boston College has exploded out of the gates offensively, scoring nine touchdowns in the first half alone in its first two games. The Eagles have an experienced offense led by RB A.J. Dillon who has ran for three touchdowns already this season. While the Kansas defense has held up well so far, it has faced the likes of Indiana State and Coastal Carolina. This game represents a major step up in class. Take the over (10*). |
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09-13-19 | North Carolina v. Wake Forest UNDER 66.5 | Top | 18-24 | Win | 100 | 81 h 49 m | Show |
CFB ACC Total of the Year. My selection is on the ‘under’ between North Carolina and Wake Forest at 6 pm et on Friday. Wake Forest is coming off back-to-back high-scoring games (and ‘over’ results) to open the season but I look for this particular contest to be lower-scoring than most are expecting. The Demon Deacons have played two below-average defensive teams in their first two games, Utah State and Rice. Their offense has certainly clicked, putting up a whopping 79 points already but here they’ll face a tougher test in the form of 2-0 North Carolina. The Tar Heels have allowed just 45 points through two games against South Carolina and Miami, so it’s not as if they’ve played FCS pushovers. Against the Gamecocks, UNC gave up a touchdown with just over three minutes left in the first quarter but then held them out of the end zone until there was just over five minutes remaining in the third quarter. Last week, the Tar Heels didn’t give up an offensive touchdown until the final 25 seconds of the first half against Miami. On the flip side, the Demon Deacons defense has been up and down but did settle in last week (admittedly after Rice lost its starting quarterback to injury), holding the Owls scoreless in the second and third quarters before allowing a garbage time touchdown once the game was out of hand in the final two minutes of the fourth quarter. With North Carolina playing on a short week off back-to-back tightly-contested victories, I don’t think it will have any interest in getting involved in a shootout here. Tar Heels QB Sam Howell has attempted exactly 24 passes in each of the first two games. North Carolina has proven capable of controlling the clock by moving the football on the ground and I’m anticipating a similar gameplan here. Take the under (10*). |
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09-12-19 | Bucs v. Panthers OVER 48.5 | Top | 20-14 | Loss | -115 | 23 h 32 m | Show |
NFC South Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Tampa Bay and Carolina at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. Most of the trends may be pointing to a relatively low-scoring result between these winless NFC South rivals on Thursday night, but I'm confident we'll see some offensive fireworks and believe the total will prove too low. The Bucs couldn't have looked much worse in last week's season-opening 31-17 loss to the 49ers. That game was pegged as a shootout but it never materialized due in large part to four Tampa Bay turnovers. QB Jameis Winston obviously needs to be better if the Bucs are to have any shot at upsetting the Panthers on Thursday night and I'm confident he will be. Note that after being held to less than 20 points in five straight meetings, Tampa Bay scored 28 and 24 points in two matchups with Carolina last year. Virtually all of the Bucs key pieces on offense are healthy entering this game after WR Mike Evans was slowed by illness last week. TE O.J. Howard and WR Chris Godwin in particular are due for strong bounce-back performances here as Tampa Bay likely finds itself in catch-up mode for most of this game. I fully expect to see the Carolina offense move the football and score at will on the Tampa Bay defense in this one. The Bucs pass rush was completely non-existent against the 49ers last week and while San Francisco wasn't really in great position to take full advantage, Carolina will be. Cam Newton should have little trouble bouncing back from an uneven performance last week with a clean pocket to work with on Thursday night. RB Christian McCaffrey draws an extremely favorable matchup as well, noting that he ran for 185 yards and two touchdowns on 27 carries against Tampa in two meetings last year. We saw an absolute snooze-fest last Thursday night but I expect a different story to unfold here. Take the over (10*). |
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09-09-19 | Broncos -2 v. Raiders | 16-24 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on Denver minus the points over Oakland at 10:15 pm et on Monday. The Raiders are saying all the right things after releasing Antonio Brown on Saturday, suggesting they're better off without all the drama Brown had stirred up. It's all smoke and mirrors as far as I'm concerned though. This is a bad Raiders squad, and one that gets considerably worse without Brown. Oakland will have little hope of keeping QB Derek Carr upright without their two starting guards, especially considering they'll be facing the Broncos vaunted pass rush led by sophomore Bradley Chubb and all-world Von Miller. I don't have a great deal of faith in QB Joe Flacco at this stage of his career but I also don't think he'll be asked to do too much for Denver on Monday night, or this season in general. Look for the Broncos to grind away on offense while their defense takes care of the rest, earning them a key AFC West win to open the season. Take Denver (10*). |
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09-09-19 | Broncos v. Raiders UNDER 43 | 16-24 | Win | 100 | 26 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and Oakland at 10:15 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams present more questions than answers on offense with the Broncos turning to veteran QB Joe Flacco and the Raiders moving on from the short-lived Antonio Brown-era on Monday night. One thing we know for sure is that both Flacco and Raiders QB Derek Carr struggle to push the football down the field with any efficiency. Expect Carr in particular to be under pressure all night long against the Broncos vaunted pass rush. Meanwhile, the Broncos will simply ask Flacco to be a 'game manager' and let their rushing attack do most of the heavy lifting. Denver isn't a good enough team to suffer a letdown defensively, even against an undermanned offensive opponent. Meanwhile, Oakland has had plenty of success against Denver here at home over the years and will still carry some confidence. In a competitive early season division game, I'll stick with the 'under'. Take the under (10*). |
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09-09-19 | Texans v. Saints OVER 52 | 28-30 | Win | 100 | 23 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and New Orleans at 7:10 pm et on Monday. I really expected to see this total skyrocket in advance of Monday's showdown between the Texans and Saints but that hasn't been the case. I'm willing to take the matchup at face value, however, and certainly anticipate a high-scoring affair on Monday night. It's worth noting that the Saints defensive will be missing two key linemen in Mario Edwards and Sheldon Rankins due to injuries. I do have plenty of respect for the Saints secondary but they're beatable and I'm confident the Texans have the personnel to find some mismatches. On the flip side, I don't think the Texans defense has a hope of stopping or even slowing down the Saints offense. QB Drew Brees may be on the down side of his career but he always seems to get off to a strong start in September and this is the perfect matchup for him to really find success distributing the football against a simply overmatched Texans defense. Jadeveon Clowney and Tyrann Mathieu were just two key offseason losses for the Texans. Look for the Saints to move the football at will in this game while the Texans thrive in comeback mode, forcing a shootout on Monday night. Take the over (10*). |
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09-08-19 | Steelers +6 v. Patriots | Top | 3-33 | Loss | -108 | 79 h 15 m | Show |
NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month. My selection is on Pittsburgh plus the points over New England at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. This really is the start of a new era for the Pittsburgh Steelers with both RB Le'Veon Bell and WR Antonio Brown join new teams in the offseason. It's a fresh start for the franchise as far as I'm concerned and while they've certainly struggled here in New England over the years, I am confident they can give the Patriots all they can handle to open the 2019 season. With WR JuJu Smith-Schuster being shadowed by Pats CB Stephon Gilmore I expect the Steelers offense to center around RB James Conner in this game. He was used sparingly in the preseason but looked even stronger than he did during his breakout campaign in the absence of Bell last year. The Patriots certainly aren't immune to slow starts (remember they lost their home opener against the Chiefs following their Super Bowl win two years ago). I'm high on the Steelers defense entering this season and look for them to give Tom Brady some headaches on Sunday night. It's worth noting that New England's usually rock solid offensive line has suffered a couple of key losses and will have its work cut out for it trying to keep the Steelers vaunted pass rush at bay. Take Pittsburgh (10*). |
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09-08-19 | Giants v. Cowboys -7 | 17-35 | Win | 100 | 76 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas minus the points over New York at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. I'm confident that the Cowboys will absolutely go off offensively against what projects to be a bad Giants defense on Sunday afternoon. On the flip side, the Dallas defense will get to tee off on Giants QB Eli Manning - quite possibly for the last time as rookie Daniel Jones is ready to take over the starting job at a moment's notice. Giants fans may hold out hope that Saquon Barkley can keep them competitive in this Week 1 NFC East showdown but should the G-Men fall behind early, he'll undoubtedly be relegated to pass catching duty against the Cowboys zone. I'm generally not all that high on Dak Prescott and the Cowboys offense but I'm certainly willing to make an exception here. Prescott should be given all the time he wants to operate with the Giants pass rush a non-factor (especially after losing Olivier Vernon in the offseason). Zeke may be back but you can count on rookie preseason standout Tony Pollard getting some action here as well, and I'm confident both Cowboys backs will produce and ultimately put this one away with time to spare. Take Dallas (10*). |
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09-08-19 | Colts v. Chargers UNDER 45 | 24-30 | Loss | -112 | 76 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Indianapolis and Los Angeles at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. This is a matchup of two offenses that had the potential to be great before being derailed by the retirement of Colts QB Andrew Luck and holdout of Chargers RB Melvin Gordon. What could have been an opening week shootout now looks a lot more like a defensive struggle and I don’t believe the oddsmakers have properly accounted for that with this total. I’ve heard plenty of praise for Colts QB Jacoby Brissett but let’s face it, he’s not a true NFL starter. I do like the fact that the Colts return all five starters to their offensive line which should at least help them hold onto the football for extended stretches on Sunday afternoon, but that clock-churning really only helps our play on the ‘under’ as I don’t see them punching it into the end zone consistently. The Colts defense remains an underrated unit. Their ‘bend but don’t break’ style should once again serve them well (and ‘under’ bettors as well). This is a defense that returns 10 of 11 starters from a year ago, not to mention the key addition of pass-rushing specialist Justin Houston. While I do like the Chargers aerial attack, this isn’t a great matchup against the Colts solid secondary. Take the under (10*). |
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09-08-19 | Titans v. Browns UNDER 45.5 | 43-13 | Loss | -109 | 73 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between Tennessee and Cleveland at 1 pm et on Sunday. I love the way this one sets up as one of the lowest-scoring games on the board this week. The Titans offense has the potential to be bad, real bad. One of the only things it really has going for it is RB Derrick Henry and let’s face it, he has been injury-plagued and inconsistent over the course of his career. Tennessee’s wide receiving corps is one of the worst in the league and QB Marcus Mariota will be staring down at one of the best defenses in football on Sunday in the Dawg Pound. With all of that said, Tennessee might be able to hang tough in this game thanks to its own stellar defense. The Browns have received so much hype for their talent at the skill positions on offense, but what about their terrible offensive line, which reared its ugly head in the preseason? If they can’t keep Baker Mayfield upright it could be a long afternoon in Cleveland. This has all the makings of a slugfest. Take the under (10*). |
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09-08-19 | Chiefs v. Jaguars OVER 51.5 | 40-26 | Win | 100 | 73 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Kansas City and Jacksonville at 1 pm et on Sunday. This matchup resulted in a 30-14 win for the Chiefs last season but there’s reason to believe this year’s encounter will be much higher-scoring. The Chiefs are going to have a tough time repeating the level of offensive production they reached last year but there’s little reason to expect them to take much of a step back either. This is a terrific opening week matchup against a Jaguars defense that lost a number of key pieces from last year’s team. QB Patrick Mahomes should once again have a field day. On the flip side, the Jags offense can only get better following the departure of QB Blake Bortles. Nick Foles has done nothing but exceed expectations over the course of his career and he gets a favorable matchup against a Chiefs defense that was generally awful last season and doesn’t figure to get much better here in 2019. Expect Foles and WR Dede Westbrook to do a number on the Chiefs secondary while RB Leonard Fournette – by all accounts fully healthy entering the season – paces the offensive charge against a Chiefs defense that couldn’t stop anyone on the ground last season. This total is one of the highest on the board for a reason. Take the over (10*). |
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09-08-19 | Ravens -6.5 v. Dolphins | 59-10 | Win | 100 | 72 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on Baltimore minus the points over Miami at 1 pm et on Sunday. We’ve seen a considerable adjustment to the spread in this game since opening but I’m not sure the oddsmakers can set the line high enough. The Dolphins may not plan on ‘tanking’ (according to rookie head coach Brian Flores) but you wouldn’t know it by the fire sale they’ve employed in recent weeks. This is a team largely void of top-level talent at all skill positions on offense and supported by a defense that just isn’t going to be very good. Meanwhile, the Ravens ceiling is extremely high this year with a number of key players on both sides of the football set up well for breakout seasons. This is the perfect matchup for Baltimore to tee things up as QB Lamar Jackson and the offense should have little trouble controlling proceedings and ultimately putting this game away in the second half. Take Baltimore (10*). |
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09-08-19 | Redskins v. Eagles -10 | 27-32 | Loss | -104 | 72 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Washington at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Eagles defense should absolutely feast on an overmatched Redskins offense on Sunday afternoon. It’s hard to figure the logic behind starting Case Keenum under center given his recent track record, and the lack of talented offensive weapons around him. The Redskins are very much ‘hoping for the best’ until rookie Dwayne Haskins can take over the starting job. This is a nightmarish matchup for an extremely weak Washington offensive line as perhaps no team can bring the heat on opposing quarterbacks like the Eagles defensive front. Eagles QB Carson Wentz is set up to get off to a terrific start here. While the Redskins have a couple of studs in the secondary, they can’t cover everyone and I certainly anticipate Alshon Jeffery and DeSean Jackson having big games on Sunday afternoon. It’s highly likely that the Eagles defense will be setting their offense up with short fields all day long, and I’m confident we’ll see Wentz take full advantage. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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09-07-19 | Central Florida -9.5 v. Florida Atlantic | 48-14 | Win | 100 | 80 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on UCF minus the points over Florida Atlantic at 7 pm et on Saturday. This matchup was no contest a year ago as the Knights rolled to a 56-36 win over FAU. This time around, I look for a much better performance from the UCF defense as it once again disposes of the Owls without much trouble. The Knights couldn’t have looked much better than they did in last week’s 62-0 rout of FCS squad Florida A&M. They were ahead 55-0 before two minutes had expired in the third quarter. While they’ll definitely get a tougher matchup from Lane Kiffin’s Owls, I’m confident they’ll be up for the challenge and like the fact that they’re hitting the road to avoid any sort of letdown here. FAU fell behind 28-0 just over midway through the first quarter against Ohio State last week and didn’t find the end zone until the fourth quarter in an eventual 45-21 loss. While the Owls probably aren’t as bad as they looked in that mismatch, this isn’t the ‘get right’ matchup they need in Week 2. Even if their defense holds up better than it did against UCF last year, I’m not convinced their offense can score enough to stay inside this reasonable number. Take UCF (10*). |
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09-07-19 | Southern Miss v. Mississippi State -16.5 | 15-38 | Win | 100 | 77 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Mississippi State minus the points over Southern Miss at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. I’ll lay the points with the Bulldogs in this one as they look for a sharper performance after escaping with a 38-28 win at Louisiana-Lafayette last week. There were certainly defensive concerns, particularly in the fourth quarter after they thought they had put the game away sporting a 35-14 lead. I see this as a more favorable matchup at home against Southern Miss. The Eagles are fresh off a 38-10 rout of FCS squad Alcorn State last Saturday. Keep in mind, they didn’t manage a single offensive touchdown until nearly seven minutes into the third quarter in that game, and that came only thanks to a defensive breakdown from Alcorn State (55-yard touchdown pass). Jaylond Adams ran back a kickoff and a punt for touchdowns in that contest. I’m higher on Mississippi State than most and don’t mind laying two-plus touchdowns in its home opener against a C-USA opponent. Take Mississippi State (10*). |
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09-07-19 | Texas A&M v. Clemson -17 | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -110 | 77 h 10 m | Show |
CFB Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Clemson minus the points over Texas A&M at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. We won with Clemson in its rout of Georgia Tech last week and I won’t hesitate to go back to the well with the Tigers again in a tougher matchup (on paper) against Texas A&M this Saturday. It wasn’t a completely clean effort from the Tigers last week by any means, yet they still managed to win by a 38-point margin. I certainly expect QB Trevor Lawrence to be sharper after completing just 13-of-23 passes for 168 yards and two touchdowns a week ago. The Aggies will undoubtedly have Clemson’s full attention after the Tigers narrowly escaped with a 28-26 win in last year’s meeting. Last week, Texas A&M rolled to a 41-7 win after jumping ahead 28-0 at halftime but that was against one of the worst teams in FBS in Texas State. With experienced QB Kellen Mond leading a tremendous offense I think the Aggies will get baited into a shootout here, but I don’t believe that serves them well. I ultimately expect the Tigers defense to pin back its ears and get after Mond while its offense does the rest, as it cruises to a comfortable victory. Take Clemson (10*). |
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09-07-19 | West Virginia v. Missouri UNDER 62.5 | 7-38 | Win | 100 | 73 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘under’ between West Virginia and Missouri at 12 noon et on Saturday. These two teams are coming off very different results last week as West Virginia escaped with a 20-13 win over FCS squad James Madison while Missouri fell by a 37-31 score on the road against Wyoming. There are a couple of things to note when it comes to the Tigers wild, high-scoring affair a week ago. Their offense scored two touchdowns in the first quarter but didn’t reach the end zone again until a couple of minutes into the fourth quarter. Clemson transfer Kelly Bryant was terrific for the most part, but he’ll face a tougher test against the Mountaineers defense this week. West Virginia allowed a rushing touchdown late in the first quarter against JMU but then didn’t give up another TD the rest of the way. The Missouri defense couldn’t stop the Wyoming ground game but did do a nice job of completely shutting down the Cowboys through the air. Keep in mind, the Tigers didn’t give up an offensive touchdown until over midway through the second quarter and ultimately allowed only three offensive touchdowns in the game, with two of them coming on long runs of 60+ yards. I don’t expect to see those type of defensive breakdowns back home as a two-touchdown favorite this week. Take the under (10*). |
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09-07-19 | Old Dominion v. Virginia Tech OVER 56 | 17-31 | Loss | -106 | 73 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Old Dominion and Virginia Tech at 12 noon et on Saturday. This is a rematch of last year’s wild 49-35 upset win by Old Dominion and I’m anticipating another high-scoring affair. ODU managed only 24 points in last week’s narrow win over FCS squad Norfolk State but keep in mind that was against a quality FCS program. The Monarchs were efficient moving the football, particularly on the ground, as they put together three offensive touchdown drives. Concerning was the fact that their defense sagged when they could have put the game away, giving up two touchdowns in the first 10 minutes of the fourth quarter. Virginia Tech scored offensive touchdowns in all four quarters against Boston College last week but couldn’t hold up at all defensively, giving up five offensive touchdowns in a 35-28 loss. While this isn’t as tough of a matchup by any means, I’m not convinced the Hokies defensive issues can be fixed in a week. Take the over (10*). |
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09-06-19 | Marshall v. Boise State UNDER 57.5 | Top | 7-14 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
CFB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Marshall and Boise State at 9 pm et on Friday. We won with Boise State but missed with the 'under' in the Broncos come-from-behind win over Florida State in what turned out to be a true road game due to Hurricane Dorian last week. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on the total here as Boise welcomes C-USA opponent Marshall on Friday night. All indications are that the Broncos have no interest in getting involved in another wild, high-scoring shootout here. Head coach Brian Harsin has been emphasizing tackling, ball security and field position in advance of this game (which will be played on a short week after that grueling affair in Tallahassee). It's worth noting that despite allowing 31 points against the Seminoles, Boise State did show the ability to play sound defense for an extended stretch, holding a better offense than they'll face on Friday scoreless over the game's final 34 minutes. Offensively, the Broncos didn't find the end zone in that game until there were just over four minutes left in the first half. Marshall put up 56 points in a blowout win last week, but that came at home against FCS squad VMI. I'll also point out that the Thundering Herd didn't score a touchdown in that game until just over three minutes remaining in the first quarter. The game essentially turned on a punt return touchdown less than two minutes later. From there, the floodgates opened. I certainly don't expect the Broncos defense to wilt the same way the Keydets' did last week. Credit the Marshall defense to limiting VMI to only 201 passing yards last week, not easing off even after building the insurmountable lead early. Take the under (10*). |
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09-05-19 | Packers v. Bears OVER 46 | Top | 10-3 | Loss | -110 | 79 h 15 m | Show |
NFL NFC North Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Green Bay and Chicago at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. While I can understand the logic behind so-called 'sharp' money coming in on the 'under' in advance of Thursday's season opener in Chicago, I'm confident going the other way and calling for a relatively high-scoring affair between these NFC North rivals. The Packers offense should only improve with QB Aaron Rodgers back healthy and Mike McCarthy and his awful play-calling having been ushered out the door. The Matt LaFleur era is about the get underway and despite the fact that Rodgers didn't see a single preseason snap, I'm confident this offense can get off to a positive start, even against a vaunted Bears defense. Chicago's pass rush and run defense are obviously stellar, but I am confident that Rodgers can be granted enough time in the pocket to improvise if necessary and should have little trouble finding his stellar but perhaps unheralded group of receivers against what should be an overmatched Bears secondary. We know what we're going to get from WR Davante Adams as he's a bonafide star in this league. However, I also look for a big game from Geronimo Allison here as he looks to build off what he and Rodgers built during his rookie campaign. Chicago's offense gets severely overshadowed by its tremendous defense but I actually expect big things from this unit in year two under Matt Nagy. RB David Montgomery is the real deal and will be running behind a terrific offensive line that returns all five starters from a year ago. While Montgomery should be in for a big game (note the Packers inexplicably let their best run stopper DT Mike Daniels go in the offseason), I also think we'll see Mitchell Trubisky take another big step this season after throwing 24 touchdowns and just 12 interceptions last year. The WR duo of Allen Robinson and Anthony Miller doesn't get a lot of hype but they're capable of going off against a beatable Packers secondary. I actually do have a lot of respect for the Packers defense, and in particular their re-tooled pass rush but I'm not sure we'll see them firing on all cylinders right out of the gate and they face a stiff challenge trying to penetrate the aforementioned Bears o-line while also giving the proper amount of attention to the rookie Montgomery. Take the over (10*). |
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09-01-19 | Houston v. Oklahoma OVER 79 | 31-49 | Win | 100 | 60 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Oklahoma at 7:30 pm et on Sunday. This total is exorbitantly high, but it is so for a reason. Houston's offense is absolutely loaded this season with QB D'Eriq King back from injury and a wealth of talent around him. Oklahoma may be a college football superpower but its defense hasn't been good in recent years, and this is an awfully tough matchup right out of the gate. The Sooners lose a ton of talent on offense heading into this season but the cupboard is never bare in Norman. After losing Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray in consecutive years they won't be turning to an unseasoned freshman - instead it will be veteran QB Jalen Hurts running the offense and I don't expect this unit to miss a beat. The last time these two programs met back in September 2016 a true shootout never developed. I expect a different story to unfold here as both teams should find the end zone at will all night long. Take the over (10*). |
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08-31-19 | Oregon v. Auburn -3 | Top | 21-27 | Win | 100 | 94 h 18 m | Show |
CFB Game of the Month. My selection is on Auburn minus the points over Oregon at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. It's another hyped-up Pac-12 vs. SEC matchup as Oregon looks to stage the upset against Auburn on Saturday night. I wouldn't count on that happening, however. The Ducks have the projected first quarterback to be taken in the 2020 NFL Draft in Justin Herbert. With that being said, he'll be facing a major challenge here in an Auburn defense that is once again loaded with talent. I actually think it will be the Auburn offense that really shines in this matchup, however. The Tigers offensive line boasts five seniors and that should make all the difference in the world for an offense that sputtered in 2018. QB Jarrett Stidham is now a New England Patriot, and the Tigers will go with true freshman Bo Nix as their starter. Head coach Gus Malzahn has indicated that he won't hold anything back in the playbook with Nix at the helm, and I tend to believe him. Nix walks into an ideal situation with a loaded backfield, not to mention a hungry and talented wide receiver corps. The matchup is fine as the Ducks are certainly beatable defensively. The question will be whether the Tigers defense can weather the early storm and ultimately take control of this game. I believe they can and will and just like last year, we'll open our season with a big winner on Auburn. Take Auburn (10*). |
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08-31-19 | Georgia Southern +28 v. LSU | 3-55 | Loss | -110 | 94 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on Georgia Southern plus the points over LSU at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. I'll take a flyer on Georgia Southern on Saturday night as it heads to the Bayou to tangle with LSU. Style points don't matter one bit in this season-opening non-conference matchup for the Tigers. With Texas on deck there's really no reason to leave it all on the field and throttle the Eagles. Keep in mind, Georgia Southern went into Death Valley and lost by 31 points against Clemson last year, and that was three weeks into the season, when the Tigers had already gotten rolling. In that game, the Eagles held Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence to just 12-of-19 passing for 194 yards, one touchdown and one interception. Georgia Southern actually gained less than two yards per rush in that contest, but still controlled the football for over 31 minutes. The Eagles return plenty of talent on both sides of the football and their option-based offense should be able to effectively shorten this game and help keep within arm's reach of the loaded Tigers. Take Georgia Southern (10*). |
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08-31-19 | Virginia v. Pittsburgh +2.5 | 30-14 | Loss | -100 | 93 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on Pittsburgh plus the points over Virginia at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. Virginia is coming off a rare winning season in 2018 - its first winning campaign since 2011 and prior to that you would have to go back to 2007 to find the last time it posted more wins than losses. Meanwhile, Pitt quietly has a pretty good thing going under Pat Narduzzi with just one losing season in its last four. I really don't think there's a lot separating these two teams, just as there wasn't last year when Pitt went on the road in sloppy conditions and delivered a 23-13 win. You would have to go back to 2014 to find the last time the Cavaliers beat the Panthers and that was as a five-point home favorite. I think Pitt has just enough to prevail here, and love the line shift we've seen leading up to the game. Take Pittsburgh (10*). |
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08-31-19 | Boise State +5 v. Florida State | 36-31 | Win | 100 | 87 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boise State plus the points over Florida State at 7 pm et on Saturday. I simply feel that too much respect is being given to Florida State, not to mention the benefit of the doubt following a disappointing 5-7 campaign a year ago. Maybe the Seminoles get off to a much different start than we saw from them last year, but I certainly don't expect them to cruise against a perennial powerhouse like Boise State. As is the case with any elite program, there's plenty of shuffling and re-stocking of the cupboard to be done in Boise. But I like where the Broncos are at following last year's 10-3 campaign. In fact, the Broncos are now an incredible 31-9 over the last three years. The biggest question is whether true freshman QB Hank Bachmeier can step in and fill the shoes left by now-Denver Broncos Brett Rypien. Bachmeier will have plenty of talent around him and I'm confident he'll be able to guide the offense to great heights again this year. He won't be asked to do a ton in this particular matchup. Look for the Boise State talented defense to be what keeps the Broncos in this one from start to finish. Take Boise State (10*). |
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08-31-19 | Boise State v. Florida State UNDER 52 | 36-31 | Loss | -115 | 87 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Boise State and Florida State at 7 pm et on Saturday. I expect the offenses to rule the night as these two powerful programs go head-to-head in a key Week 1 matchup. Both teams have some uncertainty at quarterback, even if they are saying all the right things heading in. Boise State turns to a true freshman to run the offense in Hank Bachmeier. He's going to be a good one but how much of the offensive playbook will they put in his hands on night one of the season? Against a defense as fierce as Florida State's? I'm not sure he'll be asked to do too much. James Blackman is the man under center for the Seminoles after winning the job in fall camp. He of course does have experience running this offense but the 'Noles are perennial under-achievers offensively and I'm not convinced the start of the 2019 campaign will prove any different against a formidable defensive opponent in Boise State. Take the under (10*). |
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08-30-19 | Utah State v. Wake Forest UNDER 63.5 | 35-38 | Loss | -105 | 71 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Utah State and Wake Forest at 8 pm et on Friday. If this matchup were to take place a couple of weeks from now I might be on the opposite side of the total but here in Week 1, I look for the defenses to be a little ahead of the offenses. Both the Aggies and Demon Deacons are dealing with some key losses on the offensive side of the football. For Utah State, most of QB Jordan Love's top targets are gone from a year ago. So is RB Darwin Thompson. The pieces are in place for the offense to keep rolling, but I do think it's going to take some time, and this isn't an ideal matchup, traveling east to face an upstart Wake Forest squad that has been to three straight Bowl games, and one that took the last meeting between these teams in 2017 by a lopsided 46-10 score. I don't expect to see the Demon Deacons to run wild against the Aggies defense this time around, however. Utah State boasts a stronger defense now, even after losing some key parts from last year's group. Meanwhile, Wake Forest knows that it needs to be better - much better- on the defensive side of the football in order to take a step forward in the ACC this year. I'm confident the 'D' can and will be better, and it all starts with this matchup. Offensively, the Deacons lose their star WR Greg Dortch, who was a do-it-all type that will certainly be missed all over the field. Take the under (10*). |
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08-29-19 | Kent State v. Arizona State UNDER 62 | 7-30 | Win | 100 | 50 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Kent State and Arizona State at 10 pm et on Thursday. We've seen fairly consistent money flow in support of the 'over' in advance of this non-conference matchup on Thursday night. At first glance, I can see where 'over' backers are coming from. After all, Kent State had one of the MAC's worst defenses last season - a unit that truly has nowhere to go but up with plenty of experience returning - and also boasts a capable offense led by veteran QB Woody Barrett - a former Auburn transfer. Keep in mind, the Golden Flashes offense tried their best to play fast last season, using the gimmick name 'FlashFast', but still scored more than 26 points in a game against FBS opposition only twice. I expect similar tough sledding here as they travel across the country to face an underrated Sun Devils defense that figures to improve on a campaign that saw it allow just 112 points in six home games last season. On the flip side, the Arizona State offense is ushering in a new era with freshman Jayden Daniels having won the starting QB job. Not only that, but the Sun Devils are missing one of their anchors on the offensive line in Zach Robertson who is away from the team dealing with personal issues. We'll see flashes of brilliance from Daniels on Thursday night, but I'm not convinced we'll see the full scope of the offense in Week 1. Of course, gone are QB Manny Wilkins and WR N'Keal Harry who lit it up in the passing game a year ago. Expect to see plenty from RB Eno Benjamin, but Herm Edwards won't overwork his bell cow should things get out of hand. Take the under (10*). |
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08-29-19 | Georgia Tech v. Clemson -36 | 14-52 | Win | 100 | 47 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on Clemson minus the points over Georgia Tech at 8 pm et on Thursday. This may seem like a very lofty pointspread given the fact the Tigers haven't sniffed out a win of this magnitude against Georgia Tech over the years. But here's the thing; the Yellow Jackets controlled the football for over 36 minutes thanks to their option offense in this matchup last year - and still lost by 28 points! Now they're moving to a more pro-style offense (while also changing their defensive scheme) and I don't think it bodes well as they open the season in Death Valley on Thursday night. The Tigers obviously lose plenty of talent to the NFL after a season that culminated with a dominating victory over Alabama in the National Championship Game (we won with Clemson in that one). That's nothing new, however, and the cupboard is still without question well-stocked. It may take a little bit of time for the offense to really get rolling, but I'm confident we'll see the Tigers eventually run away and hide in this one. I'm not sure the oddsmakers can set the line high enough. Take Clemson (10*). |
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08-29-19 | UCLA v. Cincinnati -2.5 | 14-24 | Win | 100 | 46 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cincinnati minus the points over UCLA at 7 pm et on Thursday. Bettors seem to be looking to back UCLA in this matchup, perhaps as Cincinnati doesn't appear to be a truly intimidating early season foe for a Pac-12 opponent - even after the Bearcats went on the road and won this matchup a year ago. The fact is, the Bearcats went an impressive 11-2 in their second season under head coach Luke Fickell and I believe they have a lot to build from here in 2019. The offense returns a lot of talent from last year's squad and should have little trouble exposing a weak UCLA defense. While the Bearcats do lose a lot from last year's impressive defensive unit, the jury is still out as to whether the Bruins offense can take full advantage. UCLA starting QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson has received a lot of praise but last year completed just 57% of his passes for seven touchdowns and four interceptions while gaining only 1.4 yards per rush. I'm not convinced that Chip Kelly is the answer for the Bruins. The line indicates a virtual toss-up and while it may very well turn out to be that, I like my chances laying the small number with a Bearcats squad that has to feel a little disrespected right out of the gates. Take Cincinnati (10*). |
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08-24-19 | Florida v. Miami-FL UNDER 47.5 | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 118 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Florida and Miami at 7 pm et on Saturday. This total has dropped considerably since opening and it's the right move in my opinion. Miami will be turning to redshirt freshman Jarren Williams to take over as starting quarterback. While I do feel going with Williams was the right move, I'm not certain we'll see him come out all guns blazing against an elite Florida defense on Saturday. Turnovers were the Hurricanes downfall last year and as a result I'm not expecting to see them really open up the playbook for Williams here, especially considering they're in transition on the offensive line after losing their right and left tackles from last season. The Gators offense has the potential to be electric this season but this is a tough opening week matchup against a talented and experienced Hurricanes defense that will be highly-motivated to play well for new head coach and former defensive coordinator Manny Diaz. Florida's offense only really got rolling in its last four games last season, scoring 35+ points in all four of those contests. Of course, there's a big difference between taking advantage of worn down opposing defenses late in the season and going up against a fresh unit in late August. Keep in mind, like the Canes, the Gators have also suffered big losses on their offensive line, even worse in fact as they lose four starters from last year's team. Both of these teams have everything to play for on Saturday night and I'm anticipating a tightly-contested affair. Take the under (10*). |
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02-03-19 | Patriots -2 v. Rams | 13-3 | Win | 100 | 21 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on New England minus the points over Los Angeles at 6:30 pm et on Sunday. I have a lot of respect for the Rams. I don't believe the missed pass interference call in that win over the Saints tarnishes their appearance in the Super Bowl one bit. But here's the thing - motivation has probably never been higher for the Patriots and Brady and Belichick in particular. I simply don't see this New England squad losing back-to-back Super Bowls, plain and simple. I will say that if the Rams had a healthy Cooper Kupp I may actually be leaning their way here. His absence means that much. RB C.J. Anderson has stolen some of Todd Gurley's thunder for the Rams but I don't expect Belichick's approach to waver one bit - he'll key on Gurley in this one and force Anderson and ultimately QB Jared Goff to beat them. I do expect Goff to play well in this game and the fast track in Atlanta does favor the Rams and their incredible team speed. With that being said, the Patriots come in with a big chip on their shoulder, whether self-manufactured or not, and I look for them to win the Vince Lombardi Trophy once again. Take New England (10*). |
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01-20-19 | Patriots v. Chiefs -3 | 37-31 | Loss | -109 | 69 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on Kansas City minus the points over New England at 6:40 pm et on Sunday. We won with the Chiefs last weekend and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play this week as they host the Patriots in the AFC Championship. Home field means a lot in this matchup. We saw the Chiefs fall just short in a Sunday nighter in Foxborough earlier this season. I give Kansas City credit for sticking around in a hostile environment on that night. Not a lot went right for the Chiefs at times in that game, but they ultimately came just a hair short of pulling off the upset. Now the shoe is on the other foot as Kansas City gets New England at Arrowhead Stadium where it owns one of the strongest home field advantages in football. The Chiefs have been a completely different team here at home, particularly on the defensive side of the football. After manhandling the Colts surging offense last week, I believe they're in excellent position to contain Tom Brady and company this Sunday. On the flip side, the Chiefs can score on anyone and while the Patriots defense is playing well and has certainly been an opportunistic bunch, I'm confident in Kansas City's ability to mix things up through the air and on the ground and ultimately hang a crooked number on the scoreboard on Sunday. The Patriots absolutely annihilated the Chargers last week but won't be spotted a big early lead again here. The Chiefs get their revenge and advance to the Super Bowl. Take Kansas City (10*). |
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01-20-19 | Rams v. Saints -3 | Top | 26-23 | Loss | -119 | 66 h 44 m | Show |
NFL Game of the Year. My selection is on New Orleans minus the points over Los Angeles at 3:05 pm et on Sunday. We cashed a ticket fading the Saints last week as they escaped with a narrow win over the Eagles. I won't hesitate to switch gears and back New Orleans this time around as they try to defeat the Rams for the second time this season, and advance to the Super Bowl for the first time in nearly a decade. Give the Rams credit as they made the red hot Cowboys look rather punchless in last week's dominant victory at home. But now they face a much tougher challenge as they travel to New Orleans, where the Saints own an incredible home field advantage. We didn't see the Saints bring their 'A' game offensively last week, but their defense more than made up for it with a particularly strong finish, keyed by a critical interception in the game's final minute. While the Saints run defense has been terrific this season, I do think the Rams will make some gains on the ground in this one. With that being said, I believe this game comes down to whether Rams QB Jared Goff can get it done against the Saints secondary, or at least keep pace with the legend on the other side in Drew Brees. I don't see it happening. The Saints offense has another gear that I expect to see it reach this Sunday. Unlike last week when their performance was a little disjointed, I look for New Orleans to come out strong and ultimately pull away for a win and cover to advance to the Super Bowl in Atlanta. Take New Orleans (10*). |
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01-13-19 | Eagles +8.5 v. Saints | 14-20 | Win | 100 | 44 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia plus the points over New Orleans at 4:40 pm et on Sunday. The Eagles got blown out of the water the last time they faced the Saints right here in New Orleans back on November 18th. However, much like last year, these Eagles are looking a lot different in January. QB Nick Foles has stepped in and relished the underdog role once again this year and I really do feel he’s a guy the entire team rallies around and they believe they can win with him under center. I liked some of the wrinkles the Eagles added to the offensive playbook against the Bears and it’s not as if they’re taking a step up in class, at least as far as the defense they’re facing goes, here in New Orleans. Playing against that vaunted Bears defense on the road was no easy task and the Eagles found a way to do just enough to secure a victory. The Saints are certainly tough to beat here at the Superdome but we don’t actually need the Eagles to win outright to cash this ticket. Keep in mind, during the regular season we saw the Buccaneers win outright and the Browns, Rams and Steelers all give the Saints serious scares here in New Orleans. If we know one thing about the Eagles, they’re not going to back down from a challenge and I’m confident they’ll find a way to hang around in this ball game. There are key matchups the Philadelphia offense can exploit against a good but not great Saints defense, enough so that they can stick around should this turn into a shootout. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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