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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-28-20 | Utah v. Washington UNDER 48 | Top | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
Pac-12 Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Utah and Washington at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. We cashed a free play on the 'under' in Utah's season-opening loss to USC last Saturday and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as the Utes head to Washington to face the Huskies. All things considered, Utah held up well defensively against the Trojans last week, allowing just 357 total yards while recording three sacks and forcing a pair of turnovers, including one they returned for a touchdown. Offensively, the Utes will need some time to mesh with a lot of new pieces in place this year. This is a tough second matchup against a good Huskies defense that comes in off a bye week due to a Covid-related cancellation last Saturday. Washington has allowed just 48 points through two games this season but that includes a punt return touchdown against Oregon State. Note that in the Huskies most recent game they actually pitched a shutout until the fourth quarter against Arizona. Offensively, Washington isn't all that threatening. It took advantage of a bad Wildcats defense last time out but will obviously be facing a difficult matchup against a perennially-tough Utes defense on Saturday. Take the under (10*). |
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11-28-20 | Penn State v. Michigan UNDER 58.5 | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 15 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Penn State and Michigan at 12 noon et on Saturday. I'll back the 'under' at the Big House on Saturday afternoon as two disappointing Big Ten East squads do battle. Penn State has yet to post a victory this season but should come in with some confidence in this one. Note that last week the Nittany Lions scored a touchdown with just over two minutes remaining in the first quarter against Iowa but then didn't find the end zone again until well over midway through the third quarter. Meanwhile, Michigan didn't manage to score a touchdown until the final four minutes of the first half against lowly Rutgers last week. That contest ultimately turned on a Michigan kick return touchdown to open the second half, ultimately turning into a shootout that took three overtimes to decide. I expect these two teams to revert to past form and step up defensively on Saturday afternoon. Both offenses have had a tough time putting it all together and I expect more of the same here. Take the under (10*). |
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11-27-20 | Oregon -13 v. Oregon State | Top | 38-41 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
Pac-12 Game of the Year. My selection is on Oregon minus the points over Oregon State at 7:30 pm et on Friday. I'll lay the points with Oregon in the game formerly known as the 'Civil War' on Friday night in Corvallis. The Ducks are off to a perfect 3-0 start to the season and believe they can work themselves into the College Football Playoff conversation. I'm not sure we've seen their best football just yet, however. Last week they narrowly avoided a disaster in a 38-35 win over UCLA, not even sniffing a cover as a 17.5-point favorite. Here, we're dealing with a more manageable pointspread, and I'm anticipating a much sharper performance from an Oregon squad that even with its flaws has put up a whopping 116 points through three games. The offense should hum against a Beavers defense that hasn't generated much of a pass rush, recording just three sacks through three games. Oregon State boasts a tremendous ground attack led by RB Jermar Jefferson. He has yet to be slowed this season, rushing for at least 120 yards and a touchdown or more in all three games. I think the Ducks can come up with a few big plays against Beavers QB Tristan Gebbia, however. Gebbia has thrown just two touchdowns compared to three interceptions this season and hasn't proven to be any sort of threat with his legs. As good as Jefferson is, the Beavers aren't really built to play from behind and I expect Gebbia's inexperience to show in this matchup. Rallying to beat Cal last week is one thing, but doing so against a powerhouse like Oregon is another matter entirely. Take Oregon (10*). |
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11-27-20 | Stanford v. California UNDER 52 | 24-23 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Stanford and California at 4:30 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'under' as the Cardinal and Golden Bears renew their rivalry at California Memorial Stadium on Friday afternoon. Stanford had its game against Washington State due to Covid protocols last week but when we last saw the Cardinal on the field they were involved in a wild 35-32 loss to Colorado. Keep in mind, Stanford didn't score a touchdown until over 10 minutes into the third quarter in that game. In its first game of the season against Oregon, Stanford found the end zone once in the first quarter but then not again until the game was out of hand midway through the fourth quarter. While the Cardinal defense has struggled, this is a favorable matchup against a Cal offense that doesn't do anything particularly well. The Bears managed to put together four scoring drives in the first half against Oregon State last week but were then held off the scoreboard for the entire second half. It was the same story in their first game of the season at UCLA as they put up 10 points in the first half and zero in the second. This matchup only managed to get into the 40's last season and I look for more of the same here. Take the under (10*). |
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11-27-20 | Nebraska v. Iowa OVER 53 | Top | 20-26 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 13 m | Show |
Big Ten Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Nebraska and Iowa at 1 pm et on Friday. We cashed our Big Ten Total of the Month in October with the 'under' in Iowa's 21-20 loss to Northwestern. Since then, the Hawkeyes have rattled off three straight wins, scoring 49, 35 and 41 points in the process. Iowa's offense draws another favorable matchup on Friday as Nebraska comes in off a disappointing 41-23 home loss to Illinois. The Huskers defense isn't stopping anyone right now and will certainly have their hands full once again on Friday afternoon. I do expect Nebraska to show up, however, on the strength of an offense that is better than it has showed (at least in my opinion). The Huskers took three sacks and turned the football over a whopping five times last week against Illinois, but still managed to score 23 points. Meanwhile, Iowa recorded five sacks and forced five turnovers but still gave up 21 points on the road against Penn State last Saturday. I'm not going to overthink the situation here as I expect a physical Iowa offense to make life miserable for the Huskers defense while Nebraska should stay competitive in what amounts to the biggest game left on its 2020 calendar. I do think the Huskers worst offensive performances are behind them as their schedule was front-loaded with a tough season-opening three-game slate at Ohio State, vs. Wisconsin (that game was canceled) and at Northwestern. Take the over (10*). |
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11-26-20 | New Mexico v. Utah State +6.5 | 27-41 | Win | 100 | 22 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on Utah State plus the points over New Mexico at 7 pm et on Thursday. This is by no means a marquee matchup on Thanksgiving Night as two winless Mountain West squads go head-to-head in Utah. I'll grab all the points I can get with the Aggies as this is certainly their best chance at winning a game this season as they face a Lobos team that has been living out of a suitcase all season due to Covid protocols in their home state. While Utah State had its most recent game against Wyoming canceled due to Covid-related personnel issues, we did see it show some signs of life in its prior contest, ultimately falling by a 35-16 score against Fresno State in a game that was still within reach until the fourth quarter. The Aggies obviously have major issues under center with starting QB Jason Shelley being dismissed from the program but if their offense is going to do anything on Thursday night, it's going to be on the strength of their effective ground attack. It's not as if Shelley was playing well - he was sacked six times in his most recent game and had barely managed to complete 50% of his passes while throwing only two touchdowns and two interceptions on the season. RB Jaylen Warren ran for 136 yards on just nine rush attempts in his last game and has three rushing touchdowns in three games this season. The Aggies also boast one of the best kick returners in Mountain West history as WR Savon Scarver will be looking for a record-setting sixth return touchdown on Thursday night. The Lobos were a complete no-show on the road against Air Force last week (we won with Air Force in that game) and while they would certainly love to pick themselves up off the mat here, I'm not convinced they can win outright let alone cover the lofty pointspread. Again, I want to emphasize the fact that New Mexico hasn't played a true home game all season (it's lone "home" game was played at Sam Boyd Stadium in Las Vegas against Nevada back on November 14th). I simply feel that at this stage of the season, this is a weary bunch that will be hard-pressed to put its best foot forward, even with the favorable matchup. Take Utah State (10*). |
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11-26-20 | Texans v. Lions OVER 51 | Top | 41-25 | Win | 100 | 25 h 22 m | Show |
NFL Turkey Day Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Detroit at 12:30 pm et on Thursday. We frustratingly missed the mark with the 'over' in the Texans most recent game - a narrow victory over the Patriots last Sunday that saw the scoring fizzle in the second half. Here, I won't hesitate to go back to the well as Houston draws an even more favorable matchup on the road against the Lions on Thanksgiving Day. We noted in our analysis last week that Texans QB DeShaun Watson would likely benefit from facing little pressure against the Pats and the same holds true here as Detroit ranks last in the NFL in quarterback hit rate. Watson has certainly looked a lot more comfortable in the Texans offense since head coach Bill O'Brien was sent packing and he should enjoy another big day statistically on Thursday. Likewise, the Texans mediocre running game should flourish against a Lions defense that gives up 4.7 yards per rush. On the flip side, the Detroit offense continues to deal with key injuries, most notably to WR Kenny Golladay - the focal point of its offense. With that being said, QB Matt Stafford has seen it all and draws a favorable matchup against a weak Texans defense that is certainly worse than it showed against an inefficient Patriots offense last Sunday. Like Detroit, Houston doesn't get after opposing quarterbacks which should be music to the ears of Stafford, who is used to taking a beating in the Lions pocket. Meanwhile, the Lions ground attack sets up very well against a Texans run defense that has been virtually non-existent, allowing a whopping 5.4 yards per rush on the season. This one has all the makings of a high-scoring affair. Take the over (10*). |
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11-23-20 | Rams v. Bucs UNDER 48.5 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -113 | 27 h 49 m | Show |
NFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Tampa Bay at 8:15 pm et on Monday. I like the way this one sets up as a relatively low-scoring affair between two NFC squads that believe they're Super Bowl contenders in the Rams and Bucs. Los Angeles has regained its defensive swagger here in 2020. No team has allowed fewer yards per pass attempt and the Rams have also been tough on opposing ground attacks, giving up just a shade over four yards per rush. While the Bucs exploded offensively last week (we won with Tampa Bay in that game), that was against a below average Panthers defense. Here, Tom Brady's number one job will be taking care of the football and keeping the Bucs offense on schedule with long, methodical drives down the field. On the flip side, the Rams offense draws a tough matchup against a Bucs defense that is still among the league's best, even after that poor showing in front of a national audience against the Saints two weeks ago. Rams QB Jared Goff hasn't fared well when under pressure throughout his career, and he should be under duress for much of this contest with Tampa Bay entering the week second in the NFL in sacks. I mentioned the Rams run defense earlier - the Bucs have been even better in that regard, giving up a measly three yards per rush. I just don't believe anything will come easy for these two offenses on Monday night and we're working with a reasonably high total. Take the under (10*). |
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11-22-20 | Packers v. Colts UNDER 51.5 | 31-34 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Green Bay and Indianapolis at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. I'll continue to look for spots to play Colts 'unders' and this looks like another favorable situation on Sunday afternoon against the Packers. Green Bay faces an Indianapolis defense that has allowed the second-fewest touchdown passes in the league this season. While QB Aaron Rodgers has enjoyed a career year by many accounts, this is undoubtedly a difficult matchup and I look for Green Bay to lean heavily on its ground attack against a Colts defense that gives up over 4.3 yards per rush. On the flip side, I'm not all that high on the Colts offense, even with QB Philip Rivers enjoying a renaissance of sorts in Indianapolis. The Packers have a very opportunistic secondary led by Jaire Alexander and Kevin King, perhaps forcing Rivers into more of a game manager role in this one. You can certainly run on the Packers defense, but we've only seen the Colts ground attack truly shine in fits and starts this season with rookie Jonathan Taylor somewhat of a disappointment. This is an intriguing non-conference showdown but don't count on an offensive showcase. Take the under (10*). |
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11-22-20 | Steelers v. Jaguars OVER 46 | 27-3 | Loss | -108 | 19 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Pittsburgh and Jacksonville at 1 pm et on Sunday. This game has the potential to get 'over' the total regardless the way it plays out on the field. The Steelers draw an extremely favorable matchup, particularly on the offensive side of the football where Ben Roethlisberger should feast against a Jags defense that simply doesn't generate any pressure on opposing quarterbacks. While the Pittsburgh ground game has been average at best this season it draws a Jags defense that lacks the ability to consistently slow opposing running backs. Look for a big game from RB James Conner and co., especially once the Steelers are able to build an inevitable lead in this contest. As good as the Steelers have been on defense this season, there are some soft spots for the Jags to take advantage of. Most notably, they've allowed north of 5.2 yards per rush over the last three weeks, which opens the door for Jags RB James Robinson who has enjoyed a breakout season. We've seen Jags rookie QB Jake Luton 'go for it' on a number of big play attempts over the last two weeks, building a solid rapport with WR D.J. Chark. I'm confident we see the Jags do just enough offensively to help this one 'over' the reasonable total (by today's standards). Take the over (10*). |
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11-22-20 | Patriots v. Texans OVER 48.5 | Top | 20-27 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 56 m | Show |
AFC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between New England and Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday. This one sets up as a shootout in Houston as the suddenly rejuvenated Patriots challenge the Texans. Houston's defense has been virtually non-existent this season, against both the pass and the run. The Texans aren't generating any semblance of a pass rush and that spells trouble as Pats dual-threat QB Cam Newton looks healthy again and seems to be getting stronger with each passing week. Incredibly, Houston is allowing north of 5.5 yards per rush which should really open things up for New England offense, which is admittedly a little undermanned. Meanwhile, the Houston offense has looked like a different unit since moving on from head coach Bill O'Brien. And speaking of defenses that don't get after opposing quarterbacks, the Patriots fall into that category as well. Even statuesque QB Joe Flacco was able to absolutely torch the Pats two weeks ago. There's little reason to expect anything different here. Also like the Texans, the Pats have struggled to contain opposing ground attacks, giving up 4.6 yards per rush on the season. All in all, both offenses are set up well inside ideal conditions at NRG Stadium and I'm fully expecting offensive fireworks. Take the over (10*). |
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11-22-20 | Steelers -10 v. Jaguars | Top | 27-3 | Win | 100 | 19 h 55 m | Show |
NFL Blowout Game of the Year. My selection is on Pittsburgh minus the points over Jacksonville at 1 pm et on Sunday. We've seen the Steelers play down to the level of their competition time and time again over the years, and although they check in undefeated here in 2020, that has held true this season - most recently in a narrow victory over Dallas two weeks ago. Here, Pittsburgh draws an extremely favorable matchup against a very green Jaguars squad that is coming off back-to-back tight losses to the Texans and Packers. After narrowly missing out on upset wins in those games, I look for the dam to break, so to speak on Sunday afternoon. Note that Jacksonville is a shell of its former self on the defensive side of the football where it is generating little to no pressure on opposing quarterbacks. The Jags are giving up big play after big play to opposing offenses and that should continue against a steadily-improving Steelers offense here. Once Pittsburgh is able to build a sizable lead there's little reason to believe Jacksonville can come up with enough touchdown drives to stay within arm's reach. Take Pittsburgh (10*). |
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11-21-20 | Wisconsin v. Northwestern UNDER 44.5 | 7-17 | Win | 100 | 18 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Wisconsin and Northwestern at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. This game features a matchup of two of the nation's best defenses and two offenses in line for some regression on Saturday afternoon. The Badgers have scored over 40 points in both games this season, but those came against two reeling squads in Illinois and Michigan. Here, Wisconsin will face its toughest test of the season to date against an experienced Wildcats defense that has held all four opponents to 20 points or less. Northwestern scored 30 points in the first half of its season-opener against Maryland but has put up a grand total of just 82 points in three-and-a-half games since. QB Peyton Ramsey attempted 36 passes last week at Purdue. The last time he threw at least 30 passes in a game he followed it up with an 11-for-18 passing week the next game. I'm confident we'll see both teams treat their quarterbacks as game managers and rely on their ground attacks to move the football (and control the clock) in this crucial Big Ten showdown. While we're dealing with a low total by today's college football standards, I believe it's warranted. Take the under (10*). |
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11-21-20 | San Diego State v. Nevada +1.5 | Top | 21-26 | Win | 100 | 30 h 40 m | Show |
CFB TV Game of the Month. My selection is on Nevada plus the points over San Diego State at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. We missed the mark with Nevada in last week's win but non-cover on the road against New Mexico but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the Wolf Pack in a much different scenario this week, playing as a short home underdog against San Diego State. This is obviously a huge game in the Mountain West Conference, earning rare national TV billing on CBS. We've been high on Nevada all season and see this as a big-time spot for the Wolf Pack to make a statement. San Diego State successfully bounced back from its surprising home loss against San Jose State the week previous, scoring a 34-10 rout of Hawaii last Saturday. Keep in mind, the Aztecs recorded a whopping seven sacks and forced three turnovers in that game - you would almost think the eventual winning margin would have been much larger based on that. We saw some complete defensive breakdowns from Hawaii in that game, allowing two first quarter touchdown runs of 51 and 62 runs. It's unlikely we'll see those type of breakdowns from a Nevada squad whose longest touchdown allowed this season was just 22 yards back in its season-opener against Wyoming. The Wolf Pack essentially sleepwalked through their victory over New Mexico last week. At times we have seen Nevada suffer brief lapses of concentration this season but I'm confident it will be up for, and hyper-focused on the task at hand against a perennial MWC contender San Diego State this week. Note that Nevada took this matchup by a 17-13 score last year. In what should be a higher-scoring affair this time around, I like the Wolf Pack to repeat that effort. Take Nevada (10*). |
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11-21-20 | East Carolina -3.5 v. Temple | 28-3 | Win | 100 | 24 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on East Carolina minus the points over Temple at 12 noon et on Saturday. Few bettors will have much interest in backing either of these one-win squads on Saturday but I like East Carolina's chances of delivering a lopsided victory at Lincoln Financial Field. The Pirates have had some bad breaks on their way to a 1-6 start to the season. After starting 1-1 they suffered controversial losses in back-to-back games against Navy and Tulsa (for reasons I won't get into here). Since then, they've come up empty in three more games although not much more could have been expected against the likes of Tulsa, Tulane and Cincinnati. Here, I look for ECU to take its frustrations out on a hapless Temple squad that is a shell of its former self. The Owls lone victory this season came back on October 17th against South Florida and that feels like it happened ages ago given their current state. Temple is likely down to its fourth-string quarterback this week, and also lost arguably its best offensive player in RB Re'Mahn Davis to the transfer portal earlier this season. As expected, the Owls defense has struggled throughout the season, unable to overcome the key personnel losses from last year's team. They'll be in tough trying to contain a Pirates offense that can score in bunches and features an emerging ground game that managed 206 yards in a blowout loss at Cincinnati last week. Note that Temple ranks 96th in the nation in run defense, allowing 199 rush yards per game on north of 4.5 yards per rush. Once the Pirates are able to build a lead, I'm confident they can ultimately put the game away. Take East Carolina (10*). |
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11-20-20 | Purdue v. Minnesota +3 | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 22 h 44 m | Show |
CFB Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Minnesota plus the points over Purdue at 7:30 pm et on Friday. |
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11-19-20 | Cardinals v. Seahawks OVER 56.5 | 21-28 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and Seattle at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. This one is being pegged as a shootout and I expect precisely that type of contest to unfold as the Cardinals and Seahawks renew acquaintances on Thursday night. Arizona is of course coming off a thrilling last-second come-from-behind, hail mary-fueled win over the Bills last Sunday. There's little reason to expect any sort of slowdown from the Cardinals offense against an undermanned, struggling Seahawks defense that simply hasn't been able to get after opposing quarterbacks at all this season. With that being said, we can also expect a big, bounce-back performance from the Seahawks offense as they once again match up well against a beaten up Cards defense on Thursday. Arizona is missing a number of key cogs on the defensive side of the football, particularly up front. QB Russell Wilson has been under heavy duress for much of the last two games but gets a terrific 'get-right' matchup here. It sounds like Seahawks WR Tyler Lockett will be good to go despite nursing an injury on a short week, obviously helping Wilson's cause against a Cards defense that has yet to prove it can cover the slot. Expect plenty of offensive fireworks on Thursday night. Take the over (10*). |
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11-19-20 | Cardinals v. Seahawks -147 | Top | 21-28 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
NFC West Game of the Year. My selection is on Seattle (moneyline) over Arizona at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. As this price continues to drop, the Seahawks are now a shoo-in for my Thursday card but rather than lay points given their defensive inefficiencies which always keep the back-door open, I'll back them on the moneyline. The Cardinals are in a clear letdown spot coming off that thrilling last-second victory over Buffalo last week. You might remember the Cards also snatched victory from the jaws of defeat against the Seahawks earlier this month, putting Seattle in a clear revenge spot at home here on Thursday night. I mentioned the Seahawks defensive struggles, but lost in the Cards recent success has been their inability to slow down any opposing offense. Of course, injuries have played a big role as Arizona is missing a number of key cogs up front - most notably edge rusher Chandler Jones. Last week a road-weary Seahawks squad wasn't able to match the Rams intensity, ultimately falling in a second straight disappointing contest for their backers. Here, I look for the Seahawks to ramp back up for a big division game, and ultimately prevail in spite of Cards QB Kyler Murray's efforts. Take Seattle moneyline (10*). |
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11-18-20 | Western Michigan v. Central Michigan | Top | 52-44 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
MAC West Game of the Year. My selection is on Western Michigan over Central Michigan at 7 pm et on Wednesday. Western Michigan is coming off what some will call a miracle come-from-behind win over Toledo last week so it would be easy to suffer a bit of a letdown here on Wednesday night. I don't see that happening, however, as this is a rivalry game with Central Michigan and in this unique Covid-shortened 2020 campaign, the Broncos might need to run the table to reach the MAC Championship Game. While Central Michigan does check in 2-0 on the season, I haven't been overly impressed by either of its wins. In the Chips' first victory they recorded five sacks, forced a pair of turnovers and dominated the time of possession battle, but still won by just three points over Ohio, at home no less. Last week they rolled to a 40-10 victory over an inexperienced Northern Illinois squad that is essentially playing for next year. CMU will definitely be stepping up in class in this one, having dropped its last two meetings with WMU. The two teams are actually quite similar in a lot of ways, but I like the Broncos offense a little more at this stage of the season and believe their defense can rise to the occasion following a tough game against a good Toledo offense last week. Note that the Broncos will likely be without one of their best defenders in Ali Fayad after he suffered an ankle injury last week. I still like the Broncos here and will consider it a big bonus if he does play. Take Western Michigan (10*). |
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11-17-20 | Buffalo v. Bowling Green +31.5 | Top | 42-17 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
MAC East Game of the Year. My selection is on Bowling Green plus the points over Buffalo at 7 pm et on Tuesday. Buffalo is the cream of the crop when it comes to the MAC and is already off to a perfect 2-0 start on the heels of back-to-back blowout wins, scoring 40+ points in both contests. With that being said, it's difficult to envision the Bulls truly getting up for this Tuesday night trip to Bowling Green. Note that Buffalo will enjoy a few extra days off after this one, not playing again until next Saturday. It's also worth noting that it's next two games are much bigger ones, particularly it's next one against undefeated Kent State. Bowling Green has been blown out in each of its first two games, although both contests came against upper-echelon MAC squads in Toledo and Kent State. I'm always one to look for the positives, however, and I will point out that the Falcons have allowed just two sacks through two games and have also found some success running the football. I do think that Bowling Green can move the football consistently enough to eat some clock in this game and ultimately shorten proceedings and keep things respectable against a Bulls squad that is simply looking to win and move on. We've seen virtually nothing from the Falcons passing game so far this season even though they have a Boston College transfer at quarterback in Matt McDonald - and he comes in with some knowledge of head coach Scot Loeffler's system with Loeffler having been the offensive coordinator at BC. Again looking at the positives, McDonald threw two interceptions in his Falcons debut two weeks ago but didn't toss a single pick in last week's blowout loss. Take Bowling Green (10*). |
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11-16-20 | Vikings v. Bears +3.5 | 19-13 | Loss | -120 | 23 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Minnesota at 8:15 pm et on Monday. It's not difficult to fade the Vikings in this spot as they lay points on the road following consecutive victories. I can't help but put the Vikes in the 'paper tiger' category and here they'll head to Chicago to face what is sure to be a highly-motivated Bears squad. Note that Chicago has proven to be the kryptonite for Vikes standout RB Dalvin Cook in recent years. Perhaps equally as notable, the Bears have been able to keep WR Adam Thielen at bay in recent meetings as well. Meanwhile, the Vikings defense is one of the league's weakest units, due to injuries and otherwise. While the Bears by no means possess an elite offensive squad, they might just enjoy a breakout performance against Minnesota here. Take Chicago (10*). |
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11-15-20 | Broncos v. Raiders OVER 50.5 | Top | 12-37 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 26 m | Show |
AFC West Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Denver and Las Vegas at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. I'm expecting a shootout between these AFC West rivals in Las Vegas on Sunday afternoon. We won with the 'over' in the Broncos loss in Atlanta last Sunday and there's little reason to go any other way this week as they take on the surging Raiders. Broncos QB Drew Lock didn't exactly flourish in last week's favorable matchup with the Falcons but he did eventually get the offensive moving and put points on the board and I look for him to build off of that performance here. The Raiders aren't applying any pressure on opposing quarterbacks - a contrast to the pressure Lock has been under in recent weeks. Given a clean pocket I'm confident Lock can continue to build on his solid rapport with his young receiving corps, most notable Jerry Jeudy, who is looking like a star in the making. Also note that Las Vegas has been terrible against the run, allowing a whopping 4.7 yards per rush which should open things up even more for this Denver offense. I have no concerns at all about the Raiders offense thriving against the Broncos injury-plagued defense. Denver hasn't been particularly tough against the run or the pass and the Raiders are quietly ascending to elite-level status on offense. Look for TE Darren Waller and RB Josh Jacobs in particular to feast in this matchup. Take the over (10*). |
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11-15-20 | Eagles v. Giants UNDER 44.5 | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 22 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and New York at 1 pm et on Sunday. As I noted in my analysis of Thursday night's losing play on the Colts-Titans 'under', it's not easy playing an NFL 'under' these days. With that being said, we'll go back to the well here as the Eagles and Giants set up as a low-scoring NFC East affair. I'm much higher on the Giants defense than most. They catch a fairly reasonable matchup here, even with the Eagles getting healthier off their bye week, welcoming back a number of key cogs on the offensive line. Meanwhile, the Eagles defense is set up exceptionally well to cause plenty of headaches for Giants QB Daniel Jones. Both defenses has been stout against the run but I don't believe that will prevent either offensive coordinator from drawing up plenty of run plays, ultimately banging their heads against the wall in that regard. That should lead to plenty of clock-churning drives, supporting our play on the 'under'. Take the under (10*). |
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11-15-20 | Bucs -5.5 v. Panthers | Top | 46-23 | Win | 100 | 22 h 30 m | Show |
NFC South Game of the Year. My selection is on Tampa Bay minus the points over Carolina at 1 pm et on Sunday. This is an ideal bounce-back spot for Tom Brady and the Bucs following last Sunday night's shellacking at the hands of the Saints. It doesn't take much to empty an NFL team's bandwagon, particularly from a betting perspective, and that lopsided loss certainly fit the bill. We already won with the Bucs laying points against the Panthers once this season and I won't hesitate to go back to the well in this one. Note that the Panthers defense has had a miserable time trying to apply pressure on opposing quarterbacks - truly a shell of this unit's former self. Look for Brady to stay upright for the majority of this game, and ultimately pick apart a very beatable Panthers secondary. On the flip side, the Panthers once again lost do-it-all RB Christian McCaffrey to injury - this time a shoulder - in last week's hard-fought loss in Kansas City. Now it will be up to backup Mike Davis to again shoulder the load, but the prospects of him finding much success against a Bucs run defense that allows under three yards per rush is highly unlikely. Meanwhile, Panthers QB Teddy Bridgewater has only shown flashes of brilliance this season, not playing at a high level on nearly a consistent enough basis to keep Carolina in contention in the NFC South. He'll be under duress for much of this contest and even when he is given time, expect the Bucs secondary to offer blanket coverage on the Panthers average receiving corps. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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11-14-20 | Temple v. Central Florida -25.5 | Top | 13-38 | Loss | -109 | 34 h 16 m | Show |
AAC Game of the Month. My selection is on Central Florida minus the points over Temple at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. I really like the way this one sets up for Central Florida, even as it lays close to four touchdowns. Temple's season is quickly going down the drain. Off to a 1-4 start, there's likely only one potential victory left on its schedule, that likely coming in a matchup with East Carolina. Injuries have played a role, but the simple fact is, the Owls defense hasn't been able to overcome all of the key losses from last year's team and the offense just hasn't been good enough to prevail in shootouts. Here, the Owls will once again be hard-pressed to keep pace with another explosive offense, even if QB Anthony Russo can return from injury (as is expected). Central Florida suffered stunning consecutive losses against Tulsa and Memphis in October but has since responded with back-to-back victories, scoring a whopping 95 points in the process. Now the path is there for the Knights to run the table, even if a difficult matchup against Cincinnati lies in waiting next week (UCF gets that game at home). This is obviously a key matchup for UCF as it looks to make that game against the Bearcats next week matter. While the Knights offense will undoubtedly continue to roll against a very beatable Temple defense, the question is whether UCF's defense can rise to the occasion and help stretch the margin out in this one. I believe it can and will. This is an experienced Knights defense that absolutely manhandled a good Houston offense last week, not allowing a single offensive score until over midway through the third quarter. Yes, they've been involved in plenty of high-scoring shootouts this season, but I'm confident the UCF defense can come up with enough 'splash plays' to ultimately put this game away for good. Take Central Florida (10*). |
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11-14-20 | Nevada -17 v. New Mexico | Top | 27-20 | Loss | -107 | 34 h 41 m | Show |
CFB Blowout Game of the Week. My selection is on Nevada minus the points over New Mexico at 6:30 pm et on Saturday. Nevada is off to a terrific 3-0 start to the season, with all three wins coming in impressive fashion. Yet, the Wolf Pack still find themselves on the outside looking in as far as the AP Top 25 goes, receiving just one vote in this week's poll. That could change after this game, however, as Nevada is in line to deliver another decisive victory against New Mexico. While this is considered a road game, it will actually be played at a neutral site in Las Vegas due to Covid protocols. Speaking of Covid protocols, the Wolf Pack have been forced to practice in two separate units, offense and defense. That's nothing new for Nevada, however, as that's how it prepared for this unique 2020 season over the summer months. We won with the Wolf Pack last week as they got off to a bit of a shaky start but ultimately rolled to a 34-9 win over Utah State. This is a similarly favorable matchup against a winless New Mexico squad that battled hard, but ultimately fell short in last week's 39-33 loss to Hawaii. It's worth noting that the Lobos will be forced to go with their backup quarterback this week after Tevaka Tuioti suffered a concussion in last week's contest. That puts QB Trae Hall in a tough spot this week, as he prepares to face a fierce Nevada defense that seems to be getting stronger with each passing week. Nevada took this matchup 21-10 last year but this is a stronger Wolf Pack squad, and I expect them to stretch out the margin this time around. Take Nevada (10*). |
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11-14-20 | Wake Forest v. North Carolina -12.5 | Top | 53-59 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 40 m | Show |
ACC Game of the Month. My selection is on North Carolina minus the points over Wake Forest at 12 noon et on Saturday. This is the tail-end of a key two-game stretch that North Carolina obviously had circled as must-win contests after dropping two of three previously. The Tar Heels accomplished task number one by brushing aside Duke in blowout fashion last week and I look for them to deliver another lopsided victory against streaking Wake Forest on Saturday. The Demon Deacons started the season with consecutive losses but have rattled off four straight wins since. Note that those four victories came against teams that own a combined 7-18 record. We generally know what we're going to get from the North Carolina offense, but in this particular matchup, I look for its defense to rise to the occasion. We saw signs of that unit turning the corner in last week's win over Duke as it recorded five sacks and generally made life miserable for the Blue Devils offense. This is a similarly-enticing matchup noting that Deacs' QB Sam Hartman has been sacked 18 times in five games against FBS opponents this season. Wake Forest defeated North Carolina by a 24-18 score last season, but September 2019 seems like an awfully long time ago now. I see this as a critical contest for the Tar Heels as they'll face an uphill battle against Notre Dame and Miami over the next couple of games. Look for them avenge last year's loss with a decisive victory. Take North Carolina (10*). |
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11-13-20 | Iowa v. Minnesota +4 | Top | 35-7 | Loss | -113 | 35 h 41 m | Show |
CFB Revenge Game of the Year. My selection is on Minnesota plus the points over Iowa at 7 pm et on Friday. I absolutely love the way this Big Ten matchup sets up on Friday night. I'm a believer that the oddsmakers rarely 'get it wrong' but in this particular case, I'm willing to make an exception. Perhaps this line has something to do with the fact that Iowa blew the doors off of Michigan State 49-7 last week. Keep in mind, the Spartans were in a clear letdown spot following an upset win over in-state rival Michigan, at The Big House no less, the previous week. It's also worth noting that the Minnesota bandwagon cleared quickly this season as it dropped its season-opener in blowout fashion against Michigan (in front of a national ABC audience). I like what the Gophers bring to the table here, with an offense that is suddenly humming behind the strong running of RB Mo Ibrahim. Their offense is going to be fine with experienced QB Tanner Morgan at the helm. Defensively, the Gophers clearly have some issues to work out, but I'm not convinced that Iowa is capable of taking advantage. The Hawkeyes are by no means an elite offensive team, even if they did approach the 50-point mark last week. Iowa took last year's meeting by a narrow margin, but I look for Minnesota to get its revenge here. Take Minnesota (10*). |
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11-12-20 | Colts v. Titans UNDER 48.5 | 34-17 | Loss | -107 | 23 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Indianapolis and Tennessee at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. It has become very difficult to play the 'under' in today's NFL with scoring up across the league and the majority of games finding their way 'over' the total. With that being said, we won with the 'under' in the Colts most recent game - last Sunday's loss to the Ravens, and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here on Thursday night in Tennessee. The Colts may have come up short against Baltimore, but they once again performed well defensively, keeping elite playmaker Lamar Jackson at bay for much of that contest. Their zone defense has done a tremendous job of limiting big plays from opposing offenses, and I expect that to be the case again here. Keep in mind, Titans QB Ryan Tannehill has cooled following a red hot start to the season, topping out at two touchdown passes in three straight games. While Tennessee does boast arguably the league's best running back in Derrick Henry, he'll be going up against an elite Colts run defense that gives up just north of three yards per rush this season. On the flip side, the Indianapolis offense is average at best, with QB Philip Rivers more of a game manager than a gunslinger at this stage of his career, even though he has fit the latter bill more often than not in recent weeks. Here in a tough divisional road game, I'm not anticipating Rivers slinging the football all over the field. Look for the Colts to instead elect to run the football early and often against a Titans defense that hasn't proven it can slow opposing ground attacks. Look for plenty of long, clock churning drives in this one, helping keep the final score 'under' the relatively high posted total. Take the under (10*). |
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11-11-20 | Central Michigan v. Northern Illinois OVER 57.5 | 40-10 | Loss | -109 | 36 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Central Michigan and Northern Illinois at 8 pm et on Wednesday. I believe this game has high-scoring potential as Northern Illinois stays home following a wild 49-30 loss to Buffalo last week. Central Michigan is coming off a more positive result, a 30-27 victory over perennial MAC contender Ohio. I liked what I saw from the Chippewas offense in that game as QB Daniel Richardson and WR Kalili Pimpleton showed some nice chemistry (Pimpleton hauled in five catches for 65 yards and a touchdown) and RB Kobe Lewis racked up 112 rushing yards and two scores on 28 carries, despite his longest run going for only 11 yards. The Chips draw a more favorable matchup here against a relatively inexperienced and very beatable Northern Illinois defense. Note that NIU didn't record a single sack in last week's loss to Buffalo. The Huskies will need to be sharper offensively in order to keep pace with CMU this week. That's not really asking much after they lost four fumbles and added an interception last week. I do believe the Huskies are better than they showed offensively with experienced QB Ross Bowers leading the way. It is worth noting that they put together three first half scoring drives against arguably the MAC's best team in the Buffalo Bulls last week - before things got out of hand in the second half (due to three Bulls defensive scores). I'm expecting a more competitive affair than we saw between these teams last year (CMU won 48-10) and that lends itself to a high-scoring contest. Take the over (10*). |
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11-11-20 | Eastern Michigan v. Ball State -8 | Top | 31-38 | Loss | -116 | 35 h 50 m | Show |
MAC Game of the Week. My selection is on Ball State minus the points over Eastern Michigan at 7 pm et on Wednesday. We missed the mark with Ball State in last week's wild 38-31 loss against defending MAC champion Miami-Ohio but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the Cardinals as they host Eastern Michigan in their home opener this week. Despite the loss, there was a lot to like in Ball State's season debut. Its offense moved the football at will for much of the game, racking up nearly 500 total yards while going 9-of-15 converting on third down. It was ultimately undone by a late interception and some porous offensive line play as it allowed five sacks. I expect the Cardinals to fare better against an Eastern Michigan defense that managed only one sack for two yards in last week's narrow loss to Kent State. The Eagles were fortunate to stay within arm's reach of the Golden Flashes in that game, largely due to a bit of a sloppy performance from Kent State, which committed nine penalties. EMU only managed 302 total yards, including a miserable 61 on the ground. Ball State should be able to win this game in the trenches. It boasts a terrific ground attack led by RB Caleb Huntley, and is more than capable of putting the game away should it build a second half lead, as I expect. Huntley appeared to be in midseason form last week, running for 130 yards and two touchdowns on just 21 carries. Meanwhile, the Cardinals had two wide receivers top 100 yards through the air, despite QB Drew Plitt completing just 19 passes. Take Ball State (10*). |
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11-10-20 | Akron v. Ohio UNDER 57 | Top | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
MAC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Akron and Ohio at 7 pm et on Tuesday. This should be a 'name your score' type of game for Ohio as it looks to bounce back from a 30-27 loss against Central Michigan last week against perennial MAC bottom-feeder Akron. With that being said, I'm not convinced we're going to see a ton of offensive fireworks. The Bobcats did well to put up 27 points in last week's setback, although it's worth noting that seven of those points came by way of a kickoff return for a touchdown. QB Nathan Rourke did it all for Ohio last season but he has since moved on, making way for his younger brother Kurtis, who is really more of a pocket passer and had mixed results in his starting debut last week. Dual-threat UNLV transfer Armani Rogers will continue to see playing time as well - I'm not a big fan of the two-headed QB system but it likely helps the Bobcats churn out some long, clock-churning drives in this one. After getting dominated in terms of time of possession in last week's loss, look for Ohio to flip the script and control this game from the opening kickoff. Akron scored 13 points in last week's blowout loss to Western Michigan. I believe it will be hard-pressed to reach that number again here. The Zips had one of the nation's worst offenses last year and there's little reason for optimism here in a unique 2020 campaign. While we may see Akron put together some lengthy drives against an Ohio defense that is by no means in midseason form (it didn't record a single sack last week), I don't expect it to end many of those drives with points on the board. To get 'over' this total I believe there would have to be solid contributions from both squads - I simply don't see that happening on Tuesday. Take the under (10*). |
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11-09-20 | Patriots v. Jets OVER 41 | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 27 h 39 m | Show |
AFC East Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between New England and New York at 8:15 pm et on Monday. I'll go the contrarian route and call for a relatively high-scoring affair as the Patriots head to the Meadowlands to face the hapless Jets on Monday night. New England's offense has been laboring, largely due to QB Cam Newton's shakiness since returning to the field following his COVID diagnosis last month. The good news is, Newton is line for a big bounce-back performance here. The Jets defense has been virtually non-existent, having traded away most of its key pieces as the team continues to 'tank for Trevor', or at least that seems to be the case. We've seen the Pats ground game start to gain some traction and in this particular matchup they should feast against a putrid Jets front. So the question is whether New York can find enough offensive success to help this one 'over' the total. I believe it can. The Patriots defense has held up ok but is expected to be without its best player in CB Stephon Gilmore once again. Meanwhile, the Jets are getting healthier on offense with Sam Darnold's favorite target, WR Jamison Crowder, expected to return. Keep in mind, he had racked up over 100 receiving yards in three of four games before going down to injury earlier in the season. Things could potentially open up a bit for the New York offense here considering the Pats are giving up just shy of five yards per rush. While there's little reason to anticipate an offensive explosion from the Jets, we really don't need such a performance given this relatively low posted total. Even last week in a much tougher situation on the road against the Chiefs, New York did manage to orchestrate three first half scoring drives. Take the over (10*). |
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11-08-20 | Ravens v. Colts UNDER 48.5 | 24-10 | Win | 100 | 27 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Baltimore and Indianapolis at 1 pm et on Sunday. We missed the mark with the 'under' in the Colts blowout win in Detroit last Sunday but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as they return home to host the Ravens. Baltimore hasn't been the same offensive juggernaut that we saw a year ago, with teams doing a better job of containing QB Lamar Jackson's big-play ability. Here, Jackson draws a tough matchup against a Colts defense that has virtually eliminated opposing QB's ability to run the football. I'm not high enough on the Ravens pass-catching corps to call for a breakout performance against a quality Indy pass defense here either. With that being said, I wouldn't count on another huge offensive showing from the Colts offense. QB Philip Rivers has looked more like an elite quarterback than a game-manager in recent weeks, but should regress back into the latter role against a tough Ravens defense that obviously has a sour taste in its mouth following last week's loss to the Steelers. Few teams have gotten much done on the ground against Baltimore and I fully expect the Colts to join that group as well. Take the under (10*). |
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11-08-20 | Broncos v. Falcons OVER 49.5 | Top | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 28 h 35 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Denver and Atlanta at 1 pm et on Sunday. This game has true shootout potential - as do most games played at the Mercedes-Benz Dome in Atlanta. The Broncos roared back from a big fourth quarter deficit to stun the Chargers on a last-second touchdown last Sunday and QB Drew Lock and co. find themselves in another favorable matchup against a porous Falcons defense here. No other team gives up more big plays (plays of 20+ yards) through the air than Atlanta. We've seen the Broncos offense involve into a more pass-heavy attack with the emergence of rookie WR's Jerry Jeudy and K.J. Hamler and TE Noah Fant. I don't expect Denver to bang its head against the wall trying to run the football a whole lot against a Falcons defense that has actually proven to be stout against the run, giving up under four yards per rush. On the flip side, the Falcons should go back to airing it out after a subpar performance in that regard in last week's victory in Carolina. While WR Calvin Ridley is sidelined, Julio Jones is more than capable of shouldering the load. It's also worth noting that the door is open for Todd Gurley to go off against a Broncos defense that has allowed well north of five yards per rush over the last couple of games, with key injuries on the defensive side of the football playing a role in that regression. Take the over (10*). |
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11-08-20 | Texans v. Jaguars OVER 50 | Top | 27-25 | Win | 100 | 27 h 2 m | Show |
AFC South Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Jacksonville at 1 pm et on Sunday. The first meeting between these two teams totaled just 44 points in a Texans blowout win back on October 11th but I believe the potential is there for this one to be considerably higher-scoring. While the Jags will be without QB Gardner Minshew in this game, installing Jake Luton under center, I'm not sure it really matters. It's not as if Minshew was lighting the league on fire before he suffered a thumb injury. RB James Robinson has become the clear focal point of the Jags offense and he should enjoy plenty of success both on the ground (Houston is allowing a whopping 5.6 yards per rush this season) and in the short passing game. Meanwhile, the Texans offense is in line for a big breakout performance coming off their bye week, facing an undermanned Jags defense that has struggled all season long. QB DeShaun Watson has looked like a new man since the firing of head coach Bill O'Brien and should continue to thrive here against a Jags defense that doesn't apply any pressure on opposing quarterbacks. The trade deadline passed earlier this week without Houston moving WR Will Fuller and that should be music to the ears of Watson. Even RB David Johnson, who has been a virtual non-factor for the Texans this season, could have a big day against a Jags defense that has been getting torched by opposing backs in recent weeks. Take the over (10*). |
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11-07-20 | New Mexico v. Hawaii -15 | 33-39 | Loss | -110 | 58 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on Hawaii minus the points over New Mexico at 11 pm et on Saturday. I like the bounce-back spot Hawaii finds itself in here as it returns home to host what could turn out to be one of the nation's weakest teams this season in New Mexico. The Rainbow Warriors are coming off a disappointing blowout loss at Wyoming last week but perhaps that letdown was to be anticipated after they opened the season with an impressive double-digit road win against Fresno State one week earlier. Hawaii QB Chevan Cordeiro has shown flashes of brilliance but has also been sacked nine times through two games. He should catch a break here as New Mexico didn't record a single sack in last week's season-opening loss to San Jose State. While the Warriors did give up 31 points in last week's setback, it's worth noting that 14 of those points came as a result of two fourth quarter turnovers (one on downs and the other on an interception). Again, Hawaii will be taking a step down in class here against the Lobos. New Mexico was able to move the football with some consistency in an eventual 38-21 loss at San Jose State last week but that was after the Spartans seemed to let their guard down with an early two-touchdown lead. The Lobos defense offered very little resistance with SJSU QB Nick Starkel completing 34-of-47 passes for 467 yards and five touchdowns. They didn't force a single turnover in the loss. Hawaii took this matchup by 14 points last season and I expect it to stretch out the margin even further this time around. Take Hawaii (10*). |
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11-07-20 | South Alabama v. Coastal Carolina UNDER 55.5 | Top | 6-23 | Win | 100 | 59 h 28 m | Show |
Sun Belt Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between South Alabama and Coastal Carolina at 8 pm et on Saturday. I'm anticipating a lower-scoring contest than most in this key Sun Belt showdown on Saturday night. South Alabama fell to an even 3-3 on the season with a 24-17 loss at Georgia Southern last Thursday. Now it stays on the road for an even tougher matchup against upstart Coastal Carolina, which is fresh off a 51-0 dismantling of Georgia State last week. A key here is the South Alabama defense. We actually started the 2020 campaign with a winner with the 'under' in USA's first game of the season - an upset win at Southern Miss. The Jaguars defense certainly held its own in October, allowing a grand total of just 58 points in three games, going 2-1 in the process. While Coastal Carolina has thrived offensively thanks in large part to the exploits of QB Grayson McCall, the Jaguars check in having allowed just four touchdown passes in six games this season. We've seen a few explosions from the Chanticleers offense this season but I'm not convinced we'll see them run up the score here, coming off that 51-point effort last week. Lost in last week's rout was the performance of their defense as they shutout a Georgia State squad that had put up a whopping 168 points in its first four games this season. Coastal Carolina is certainly capable of holding what I consider to be an over-achieving South Alabama offense at bay in this one. Take the under (10*). |
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11-07-20 | Michigan -3 v. Indiana | Top | 21-38 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 27 m | Show |
Big Ten Game of the Month. My selection is on Michigan minus the points over Indiana at 12 noon et on Saturday. I love the way this one sets up for Big Blue coming off a very disappointing field goal loss to rival Michigan State last Saturday. Perhaps the Wolverines got caught reading their own press following a much easier than expected rout of Minnesota in their Big Ten opener (we lost with Minnesota in that game). Now that they've been brought back to Earth by the Spartans, I look for a much sharper performance from Jim Harbaugh's squad on Saturday. Indiana is off to a somewhat surprising 2-0 start, scoring a ton of points in the process. I don't have a great deal of confidence in the Hoosiers keeping it rolling here, however. Note that QB Michael Penix has completed just 36-of-62 passes and has been sacked four times through two games. Meanwhile, leading rusher Stevie Scott has carried the football 20+ times in both games, topping out at just 79 rushing yards. The last time these two teams met last November, Michigan won in a rout, 39-14. This one might not be that lopsided, but I'm comfortable laying the points with the Wolverines on the road. Take Michigan (10*). |
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11-06-20 | San Jose State v. San Diego State UNDER 49 | 28-17 | Win | 100 | 13 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Jose State and San Diego State at 9 pm et on Friday. I'll take a shot with the 'under' in this Mountain West Conference showdown between two undefeated teams on Friday night. This is admittedly a low total by college football standards, but it's warranted in my opinion. San Jose State's offense has been humming with QB Nick Starkel padding his stats with a 467-yard, five-touchdown performance against New Mexico last week. Here, he'll face a much tougher challenge, however, against a talented and experienced San Diego State defense that has already recorded six sacks through two games, and has allowed just two passing touchdowns while recording two interceptions. The Spartans ground attack is limited and that should make it tough to stay on the field for extended periods in this one. Meanwhile, San Diego State certainly hasn't been known for its offense in recent years, but has been impressive so far. This is a tough test, however, after the Aztecs lined up against two of the nation's weakest defenses in UNLV and New Mexico in their first two games. I look for SDSU to put together plenty of long, clock-churning drives in this one, ultimately helping to keep this one 'under' the posted total. Take the under (10*). |
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11-05-20 | Packers v. 49ers OVER 48.5 | Top | 34-17 | Win | 100 | 23 h 26 m | Show |
TNF Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Green Bay and San Francisco at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. This total has been dropping since word broke that the 49ers would be without a number of key cogs on the offensive side of the football due to COVID-19 protocols. Of course, San Francisco was already going to be missing many other players due to injuries, including QB Jimmy Garroppolo, TE George Kittle, WR Deebo Samuel - the list goes on and on. I actually feel the total has shifted too low. The Packers offense should absolutely feast in this contest, even as that unit deals with key injuries of its own including one to RB Aaron Jones who I believe is unlikely to play again this week. QB Aaron Rodgers has enjoyed plenty of success this season and should pick apart an injury-ravaged 49ers defense that has shown no semblance of a pass rush here in 2020. On the flip side, the Packers defense is nothing special and has been repeatedly torched by opposing running games. The 49ers are depleted at the running back position, but should still be able to gain some traction against what is quite simply one of the league's worst run defenses. Look for RB Jerick McKinnon to step up in the absence of San Francisco's household names out of the backfield. Likewise, Niners QB Nick Mullens always seems to play with a chip on his shoulder and provided he can stay away from CB Jaire Alexander, he should be able to move the football and ultimately put points on the board for his squad. This may not be a true shootout, but I do expect it to find its way 'over' the very reasonable total. Take the over (10*). |
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11-05-20 | Utah State v. Nevada -15.5 | Top | 9-34 | Win | 100 | 34 h 14 m | Show |
Mountain West Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Nevada minus the points over Utah State at 7 pm et on Thursday. While no in-conference matchup should ever be considered a 'gimme', I do believe Nevada is in terrific position to move to 3-0 in Mountain West Conference play and take this one by a lopsided margin on Thursday night. Utah State has been the worst team in the Mountain West through two games, and might just be one of the weakest teams in the nation in this unique 2020 season. While the Aggies have faced a tough draw to open the campaign, going up against Boise State and San Diego State - two of the MWC's best teams - things don't figure to get any easier here. Note that last week the Aggies lone score came on a SDSU defensive breakdown on the final play of the first half. Against Boise State, Utah State didn't score until the final two minutes of the third quarter - when the game was already out of hand. Nevada, meanwhile, checks in a perfect 2-0, winning a tight one against upstart Wyoming before blowing out UNLV last week. I liked the way Nevada put the latter game away late, holding UNLV scoreless in the fourth quarter while scoring 10 points itself. Nevada QB Carson Strong has thrown for 770 yards, six touchdowns and no interceptions through two games. There's no real look-ahead at play for the Wolf Pack here as they'll face winless New Mexico next Saturday. Take Nevada (10*). |
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11-04-20 | Ball State +2.5 v. Miami-OH | Top | 31-38 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 25 m | Show |
MAC Game of the Week. My selection is on Ball State plus the points over Miami-Ohio at 7 pm et on Wednesday. Ball State boasts plenty of upside off a very disappointing 2019 campaign - I say disappointing not because the Cardinals played all that poorly, but because they were unable to come up with enough victories in close games to earn Bowl eligibility. They ultimately went 5-7 with three losses coming by a grand total of eight points. Most of the key pieces are back on offense, where Ball State is loaded with potential entering the 2020 season. While this is a tough opening matchup, it's one the Cardinals need to succeed in if they're going to challenge for a MAC title. The key could be whether or not Ball State can ratchet up the pressure on the defensive side of the football, where they simply had no success getting to opposing quarterbacks a year ago. I believe they can with an experienced group that returns 12 of 15 top tacklers, going up against a Redhawks offensive line that had a tough time keeping their QB upright. Miami-Ohio stunned most by winning the MAC Championship last season. Don't count on a repeat performance in 2020. While a lot of the key players from last year's squad are back, I don't see a great deal of upside or progression on the horizon. This could be a year where the rest of the MAC catches up with the Redhawks and the pendulum swings in the other direction after they won so many tight contests a year ago. Take Ball State (10*). |
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11-02-20 | Bucs v. Giants +13 | Top | 25-23 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
NFC Game of the Month. My selection is on New York plus the points over Tampa Bay at 8:15 pm et on Monday. This week has featured a pair of primetime NFL stinkers with the Falcons outlasting the Panthers in a dull affair on Thursday and the Eagles pulling away from the Cowboys in a football horror show last night. Call me crazy, but I think we may see an entertaining affair between the Bucs and Giants on Monday night. Tampa is in a bit of a tough scheduling spot here, traveling back across the country after posting back-to-back wins over the Packers and Raiders. The Bucs have a big divisional showdown with the Saints on tap this coming Sunday so maybe they park the bus if they build a lead in this one. Meanwhile, the Giants have had an extended week of practice since falling by a single point in Philadelphia a week ago Thursday. New York has very little upside at this time but I will point to a couple of positives. The Giants run defense has been stout and they certainly don't face an intimidating opponent in that sense here. They've also gotten healthier in their receiving corps with Sterling Shepherd back in the mix to compliment Darius Slayton, who has enjoyed a career year so far. The betting majority should be all over the Bucs in this one but we'll go the other way and grab the points with a G-Men squad that has rarely gotten blown out over the course of its 1-6 start. Take New York (10*). |
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11-01-20 | Cowboys v. Eagles -10.5 | 9-23 | Win | 100 | 33 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Dallas at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. This is a fairly obvious play but that doesn't mean it's the wrong one. We should see the Eagles defense absolutely feast on an overmatched Cowboys offense here. There's little reason to expect any sort of surprise breakout performance from rookie QB Ben DiNucci - the Cowboys true third-string option under center. He should be under duress against a fierce Eagles pass rush all night long, setting up the potential for plenty of short fields for the Philadelphia offense. For at least this week, we should see the Eagles offense take flight. We saw positive signs in last week's come-from-behind victory over the Giants (we missed with Philly in that game). Now with an extended week of practice, look for them to take advantage of a reeling Cowboys stop-unit. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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11-01-20 | Colts v. Lions UNDER 50 | 41-21 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Indianapolis and Detroit at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'm not sure where all the points are going to come from in this game. Yes, the Colts should be able to move the football on the ground against a weak Lions run defense but can QB Philip Rivers move the ball consistently through the air? I envision a lot of long, clock-churning drives from the Colts here. Meanwhile, the Indy defense should feast on an average Lions offense. The Colts are giving up less than 3.5 yards per rush this season and are expected to get LB Darius Leonard back to boost their mid-level pass defense. This total has been set too high in my opinion. Take the under (10*). |
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11-01-20 | Titans v. Bengals OVER 50.5 | Top | 20-31 | Win | 100 | 26 h 46 m | Show |
AFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Tennessee and Cincinnati at 1 pm et on Sunday. This game has shootout written all over it as the Titans head to Cincinnati to take on the Bengals. After their comeback fell just short against the Steelers last Sunday (we won with Pittsburgh in that game), the Titans should explode against an awful Bengals defense here. Cincinnati isn't doing anything to slow opposing running games which opens the door for a big day from Titans RB Derrick Henry. Meanwhile, they're not applying nearly enough pressure on opposing quarterbacks to make Ryan Tannehill uncomfortable. Likewise, Tennessee can't seem to get to the quarterback, which should spell trouble as it lined up against a steadily-improving and confident rookie QB Joe Burrow. The Bengals by no means possess an elite offense, but they are running a ton of plays and should be able to expose a bad Titans defense here. Take the over (10*). |
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10-31-20 | UL-Lafayette v. Texas State OVER 56 | 44-34 | Win | 100 | 31 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between UL-Lafayette and Texas State at 8 pm et on Saturday. |
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10-31-20 | Northwestern v. Iowa UNDER 46.5 | Top | 21-20 | Win | 100 | 26 h 60 m | Show |
Big Ten Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Northwestern and Iowa at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. We saw just 20 total points scored when these two programs met a year ago, with all 20 of those points coming from Iowa. I'm anticipating another relatively low-scoring affair on Saturday afternoon at Kinnick Stadium. Northwestern busted out for 43 points in its season debut last week, but that came at the expense of a bad Maryland team. We saw a number of defensive breakdowns from the Terps in that contest, allowing the Wildcats to score one touchdown on a broken play and two others from 30+ yards out. Northwestern will face a much tougher test against Iowa this week. The Hawkeyes suffered a tough 24-20 loss to Purdue in their opener. While Purdue QB nearly 300 yards and three touchdowns, he needed 50 pass attempts to get to those totals. The fact that Iowa didn't put its best foot forward but still held the Boilermakers to only 24 points was telling. Offensively, Iowa will remain a work in progress. Expect a run-first gameplan against the Wildcats on Saturday, helping lead to plenty of long, clock-churning drives. Take the under (10*). |
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10-31-20 | Wake Forest -12 v. Syracuse | 38-14 | Win | 100 | 23 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on Wake Forest minus the points over Syracuse at 12 noon et on Saturday. Syracuse took this matchup a year ago in a wild 39-30 contest. The Orange have fallen on hard times since, however, proving to be one of the weakest teams in the nation in this unique 2020 season. With that being said, Syracuse did stay easily inside the inflated pointspread on the road against mighty Clemson last week, which may give Orange backers a false sense of security here. Wake Forest poses a significant challenge as it rolls in on the heels of three straight wins. The Demon Deacons two losses this season were by no means bad ones, coming at home against Clemson and on the road against N.C. State. The Deacs' ground game continues to churn out big gains while Sam Hartman is a truly underrated college quarterback, having yet to throw an interception this season - the perfect signal-caller for this ball-control offense. Syracuse has little going for it right now and I don't see it picking itself up off the proverbial mat at the Carrier Dome on Saturday. Take Wake Forest (10*). |
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10-30-20 | East Carolina v. Tulsa UNDER 62 | 30-34 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between East Carolina and Tulsa at 9 pm et on Friday. We won with the 'over' in Tulsa's rout of South Florida last week but I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the 'under' as the Golden Hurricane return home to host East Carolina on Friday night. The Pirates will welcome back QB Holton Ahlers from injury. This is a tough matchup though as the Tulsa defense has been stout - even against a pretty tough schedule that has included games against Oklahoma State and Central Florida - both on the road. Last week, the Golden Hurricane didn't allow a touchdown until midway through the third quarter. Earlier this season they held Oklahoma State out of the end zone until the fourth quarter and didn't give up a single second half touchdown against Central Florida. While Tulsa has scored 76 points over its last two games, it is by no means an offensive juggernaut. Keep in mind, the Golden Hurricane lost their offensive star, RB Shamari Brooks, to a season-ending injury before things even got going back in September. East Carolina should play with an edge at 1-3 on the season and coming off a bye week. Take the under (10*). |
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10-29-20 | Falcons v. Panthers OVER 49 | 25-17 | Loss | -109 | 33 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Carolina at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. I'm shocked that we're able to play a total south of 50 points in this Thursday night divisional showdown. Perhaps I shouldn't be. After all, these two teams combined to score just 39 points in their meeting earlier this season, and that took place in the friendly dome confines of Mercedez-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. Here, I'm anticipating a shootout as neither defense brings any sort of confidence to the table and certainly doesn't match up well with the opposing offense. We've seen Panthers QB Teddy Bridgewater really settle into his offense over the last several weeks and now he gets a smash spot against a Falcons defense that doesn't get after the quarterback and is only average in virtually every department. On the flip side, the Falcons offense should be able to 'let it fly' against an undermanned, struggling Panthers defense. Last Sunday in New Orleans, the Panthers got shredded by an inconsistent Drew Brees, allowing a 118.4 QB rating and sacking him just once. Falcons QB Matt Ryan should thrive in this matchup. Take the over (10*). |
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10-29-20 | South Alabama v. Georgia Southern UNDER 52 | Top | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
Sun Belt Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between South Alabama and Georgia Southern at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. I like the way this one sets up as a relatively low-scoring affair. South Alabama has scored 30 or more points in consecutive games - both victories - but those came against two of the nation's weakest teams in Texas State and Louisiana Monroe - not to mention the fact that both games were played at home. Here, the Jaguars will face a tougher challenge as they hit the road to face Georgia Southern, which should be in a sour mood following a tough loss to Coastal Carolina last week. The Eagles have topped out at 42 points in a game this season but that came against a bad UMass squad that was playing its first game of the season. While the Eagles do have an experienced signal-caller in QB Shai Werts, I don't have a great deal of confidence in them running up the score here. Take the under (10*). |
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10-26-20 | Bears v. Rams -5.5 | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 12 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Chicago at 8:15 pm et on Monday. This will be pegged as a defensive showdown between two upper-echelon NFC teams with the Bears checking in at 5-1 and the Rams 4-2. I see this as a bit of a flat spot for Chicago coming off back-to-back wins over the Bucs and Panthers. I simply feel the Bears may be in line for a stinker has as the matchup doesn't set up favorably. The Rams are certainly comfortable playing here at So-Fi Stadium where they've gone a perfect 2-0 and allowed just 26 points in the process. The Bears defense has certainly been stout, but not quite so dominant on the road where they've allowed over 21 points per game. That number shoots up to 24.5 points per contest in domes, where they weren't nearly as stingy in Detroit and Atlanta earlier this season. Simply put, Chicago is a team built for a outdoor environment in my opinion, on both sides of the football. I'm not expecting any sort of resurgence from Bears QB Nick Foles against a fierce Rams defense. He has by all accounts struggled since taking over the reins from an ineffective Mitchell Trubisky. The Rams have shutdown corner Jalen Ramsey to blanket Chicago's lone true offensive star in WR Allen Robinson. While Los Angeles does give up plenty of yardage on the ground, I'm not convinced Bears RB David Montgomery can hit paydirt here as he has just one touchdown to his credit this season. Rams QB Jared Goff once again won't be asked to do a whole lot, but he'll do enough to get the Rams the win and cover. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
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10-25-20 | Bucs -3.5 v. Raiders | Top | 45-20 | Win | 100 | 25 h 42 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Tampa Bay minus the points over Las Vegas at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. I continue to believe that the Raiders victory in Kansas City two weeks ago will ultimately prove to be the high point of their season. This is a nightmarish matchup for Vegas with a possible COVID outbreak moving the game from primetime to the late afternoon window. Note that the Raiders will be welcoming a Bucs squad that seems to be getting better (on both sides of the football) with each passing week. Tampa Bay now has an elite-level defense and should feast on a Raiders offense led by mistake-prone and tentative QB Derek Carr. Meanwhile, Tom Brady and the Bucs offense is set to explode against a weak, undermanned Raiders defense. This game has blowout potential despite the relatively short pointspread. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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10-25-20 | Bills -10 v. Jets | 18-10 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Buffalo minus the points over New York at 1 pm et on Sunday. There's absolutely no reason to jump off the Jets fade bus at this point as the Bills find themselves in fantastic bounce-back position against punchless Gang Green on Sunday afternoon. We've seen Buffalo's worst over the last two weeks, even if it did hang tough against the Chiefs this past Monday night. Here, we should see the Bills offense absolutely shred a Jets defense that has essentially checked out on the season. On the flip side, the Buffalo defense takes a huge step down in class after facing two of the NFL's best offenses in the Titans and Chiefs. New York's offense is going nowhere with QB Joe Flacco at the helm. While I actually like the matchup for the Jets running game against the Bills, that won't be enough to keep them within arm's reach for four quarters. This could very well be the spot where the Bills do pin back their ears and stiffen up against the run and if that happens this is an absolute rout. Take Buffalo (10*). |
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10-25-20 | Packers -3 v. Texans | 35-20 | Win | 100 | 22 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on Green Bay minus the points over Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'll lay the points with the Packers in this clear bounce-back spot against the Texans on Sunday. Green Bay absolutely laid an egg last Sunday afternoon in Tampa, falling in blowout fashion against the Bucs. Of course, they were facing one of the league's best defenses in that game. Here, they'll be going up against one of the worst. The Texans are giving up nearly six yards per rush on the ground and haven't been much better against opposing passing games. Expect Aaron Rodgers and co. to have a field day at NRG Stadium. Meanwhile, the Houston offense had plenty of success last week in Tennessee (we won with the 'over' in that game) but should find the sledding a little tougher here as the Packers have actually been tough on opposing quarterbacks. The Texans had a bit of upside following the Bill O'Brien firing, but that's gone now. I like the Packers to cover the short number. Take Green Bay (10*). |
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10-25-20 | Steelers +1.5 v. Titans | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 22 h 58 m | Show |
AFC Game of the Month. My selection is on Pittsburgh plus the points over Tennessee at 1 pm et on Sunday. Few teams are having as much fun as the Pittsburgh Steelers, who check in a perfect 5-0 on the season, matching the record of the team they'll face on Sunday - the Tennessee Titans. I'll give the Steelers the nod here as they match up well against Tennessee in a number of areas. First of all, you'd be hard-pressed to find a better run defense than that of the Steelers. If any team can at least slow down the beast that is Titans RB Derrick Henry, it's the Steelers. Take away Henry and QB Ryan Tannehill obviously becomes far less effective. LT Taylor Lewan will certainly be a key absence on the Titans offensive line. Meanwhile, the Titans defense, while carrying a very positive reputation, has struggled for much of the campaign. Tennessee has been particularly weak against the run, giving up over five yards per rush and five touchdowns to enemy backs. That absolutely opens the door for a steadily-evolving Pittsburgh offense that has quietly been excelling across the board. Both of these teams are legitimate AFC title contenders, but the Steelers get the edge here as we approach the midway point of the regular season. Take Pittsburgh (10*). |
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10-24-20 | Michigan v. Minnesota +3.5 | 49-24 | Loss | -115 | 31 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota plus the points over Michigan at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. I can't help but feel Michigan is overvalued in this nationally televised matchup to open Big Ten play on Saturday night. The line has flipped since opening, and I'm not sure the move is warranted as Minnesota is certainly capable of hanging with Big Blue here in its home opener. Not only was Minnesota a Bowl team last year but it played on New Year's Day, defeating SEC power Auburn 31-24 as a touchdown underdog in the Outback Bowl. Look for the Gophers to enjoy similar fortunes in an underdog role here. Take Minnesota (10*). |
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10-24-20 | West Virginia v. Texas Tech +3.5 | Top | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 29 h 58 m | Show |
Big 12 Game of the Year. My selection is on Texas Tech plus the points over West Virginia at 5:30 pm et on Saturday. I absolutely love the way this one sets up for home underdog Texas Tech. West Virginia was in a favorable spot last Saturday and delivered a blowout win over Kansas but that was to be expected. Here, the Mountaineers find themselves in a different situation, favored on the road against what will be a highly-motivated 1-3 Texas Tech squad. The Red Raiders got off to a fine start this season, beating quality FCS opponent Houston Baptist in their opener before giving Texas all it could handle the next week. Since then, it has gotten off track, falling in tough back-to-back road games against Kansas State and Iowa State. With that being said, really how much better could we have expected Texas Tech to perform over the course of this tough early slate. This is a legitimate opportunity for the Red Raiders to get back in the win column before the schedule gets much tougher again with a home date against Oklahoma followed by a road game against TCU. Look for them to take advantage of the opportunity against a beatable West Virginia squad. Take Texas Tech (10*). |
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10-24-20 | Temple v. Memphis OVER 69.5 | 29-41 | Win | 100 | 24 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Temple and Memphis at 12 noon et on Saturday. I've said from the start of the season that this Temple squad is built for shootouts and is likely to be involved in plenty of them this year. So far, so good as the Owls have played only two games but both were high-scoring - dropping a 31-29 decision against Navy before responding with a 39-37 victory over South Florida last week. Now comes another shootout in the making as the Owls travel to face Memphis. The Tigers are loaded on offense so it should come as no surprise that they've been involved in their share of high-scoring games already this season as well. Last week we saw Memphis return to the field following a bye week and proceed to score 50 points in a wild one-point victory over UCF. While the Tigers will be taking a step down in class here, I still expect their defense to struggle to contain the Owls attack. Last year's meeting saw just 58 total points but the potential is there for this one to get well into the 70's in my opinion. Take the over (10*). |
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10-23-20 | Tulsa v. South Florida OVER 49.5 | Top | 42-13 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
AAC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Tulsa and South Florida at 7:30 pm et on Friday. This total has dropped into playable range since opening. We just haven't seen enough from Tulsa to get a true gauge of where the Golden Hurricane are at. After opening the season with a much lower-scoring than expected 16-7 loss at Oklahoma State they went on to stage a stunning upset of Central Florida in Orlando, scoring an impressive 34 points in the process. Here, I'm confident the Tulsa offense can ramp up again but I'm not sure the Golden Hurricane defense will hold up as well as it has to this point. It would be easy to suffer a bit of a letdown emotionally against a 1-4 South Florida squad. The Bulls are still trying to get their offense sorted but this is a fine breakout spot at home coming off an extra week of practice. While I'm not anticipating a shootout here, I do believe this one will ultimately climb over the very reasonable posted total. Take the over (10*). |
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10-22-20 | Giants v. Eagles -4 | Top | 21-22 | Loss | -116 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
TNF Game of the Year. My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over New York at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. I like the way this one sets up for the Eagles for a number of reasons. First, we saw some signs of life from Philadelphia last Sunday as it didn't fold the tent after falling behind against an elite Ravens squad. In fact, the Eagles were a two-point conversion away from sending the game to overtime. Meanwhile, the Giants are fresh off their first win of the season, coming at the expense of the equally lowly Washington Football Team. Here, New York faces a much tougher challenge against a still-fierce Eagles pass rush that ranks top three in the NFL in quarterback hits. Expect Giants QB Daniel Jones to be under duress all night long. Meanwhile, the Giants defense has been lifeless and essentially sets Eagles QB Carson Wentz up for a breakout performance here, even with TE Zach Ertz sidelined. Ertz hasn't been effective anyway so his absence won't be missed all that much. Despite facing a stable of lower-tier quarterbacks, the G-Men defense have done little to slow opposing offenses. Look for the Eagles to take out their frustrations on Joe Judge's squad here. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
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10-22-20 | Arkansas State v. Appalachian State UNDER 68 | 17-45 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Arkansas State and Appalachian State at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. We missed the mark (badly) with the 'under' in Arkansas State's victory over Georgia State last week. I won't hesitate to go back to the well here, however as the Red Wolves head on the road to face Appalachian State. The Mountaineers are well-rested if nothing else, having not played a game since September due to COVID concerns. Prior to the shutdown Appalachian State had gone 2-1 but was largely inconsistent offensively, only truly breaking out against FCS opponent Campbell. Here, I certainly wouldn't be surprised if the Mountaineers showed a bit of rust offensively. Meanwhile, we can't count on another offensive explosion from the Arkansas State offense - not against a much tougher Appalachian State defense. The last time these two programs met two years ago they combined to score 44 points. Take the under (10*). |
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10-19-20 | Cardinals v. Cowboys OVER 55 | Top | 38-10 | Loss | -109 | 23 h 2 m | Show |
NFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and Dallas at 8:15 pm et on Monday. This sets up as a smash spot for both offenses, even with the Cowboys having lost QB Dak Prescott for the season. The Cardinals are coming off a nice 'get right' matchup against the Jets and should be able to keep it rolling against a pitiful Cowboys defense here. Note that Dallas simply isn't getting after opposing quarterbacks which should help set up a clean pocket for capable Cardinals QB Kyler Murray on Monday night. Given that clean pocket there's little reason to expect anything other than a monster performance from Murray and his favorite target WR DeAndre Hopkins. Meanwhile, the Cowboys aren't stopping anyone from running the football which bodes well for the Cards backfield tandem of Kenyan Drake and Chase Edmonds. While most are quick to write off the Cowboys offense, I believe they can keep playing fast and putting plenty of points on the board with veteran Andy Dalton under center. It's not as if the rest of the offensive cupboard is bare - the Cowboys are positively loaded all over the field, and particularly at wide receiver. Note that the Cards lost arguably their best defender in Chandler Jones to injury last week. Without Jones, I look for Dalton to navigate the very beatable Cards defense and help this one 'over' the posted total. Take the over (10*). |
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10-19-20 | Chiefs -5.5 v. Bills | 26-17 | Win | 100 | 6 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on Kansas City minus the points over Buffalo at 5 pm et on Monday. The reasoning behind this play is fairly simple. I don't believe the Bills defense, which was severely overrated early in the season, can keep the Chiefs at bay for four quarters on Monday night, nor do I believe Josh Allen and the Bills offense will be able to avoid the mistakes that will ultimately result in a lopsided Chiefs victory. Kansas City suffered a clear letdown last Sunday as it wasn't sharp in any facet of the game in a loss to the Raiders. That one stung. Now the Chiefs have had extra time to stew on that loss and I look for them to come up big on Monday in Buffalo. Take Kansas City (10*). |
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10-18-20 | Texans v. Titans OVER 53 | Top | 36-42 | Win | 100 | 17 h 51 m | Show |
AFC South Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Tennessee at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'm anticipating a high-scoring affair as the Texans and Titans do battle on Sunday afternoon in Nashville. This is a big-time smash spot for Texans QB Deshaun Watson who looked relaxed and sharp without the specter of head coach Bill O'Brien hanging over him last week. Things should really open up for the Texans offense against a Titans defense that has allowed just under 5.6 yards per rush this season. Likewise, Houston's defense has also allowed well north of five yards per rush this season so it would come as no surprise if Titans RB Derrick Henry kept rolling here this week. Keep in mind, Houston will be without run-stopper Benardrick McKinney after he suffered a shoulder injury last week. Houston has offered no resistance against opposing passing games this season so this is also a green-light spot for Titans QB Ryan Tannehill who continues to be severely undervalued by most. Take the over (10*). |
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10-18-20 | Browns v. Steelers -3 | Top | 7-38 | Win | 100 | 17 h 40 m | Show |
NFL Blowout Game of the Month. My selection is on Pittsburgh minus the points over Cleveland at 1 pm et on Sunday. While the Browns are rolling right now I can't help but feel they're ripe for a blowout at the hands of the Steelers on Sunday afternoon in Pittsburgh. The Steelers are capable of absolutely shutting down Cleveland's ground attack, having allowed just north of three yards per rush this season. Take away the Browns running game and you severely deplete their offense, especially with QB Baker Mayfield banged up. Meanwhile, the Steelers offense continues to round into form. The fact is, Pittsburgh has been one of the three most impressive squads in the NFL in the first month-plus of the season as far as I'm concerned. I look for the Pittsburgh offense to absolutely gash a suddenly overrated Browns defense here on Sunday afternoon at Heinz Field. Take Pittsburgh (10*). |
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10-17-20 | North Carolina -13 v. Florida State | Top | 28-31 | Loss | -112 | 32 h 19 m | Show |
ACC Game of the Year. My selection is on North Carolina minus the points over Florida State at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. We won with North Carolina in its double-digit victory over Virginia Tech last Saturday and I'll back the Tar Heels again this week as they head out on the road to face 1-3 Florida State. The Tar Heels are one of the hottest teams in the nation in this unique 2020 college football season but it has gone largely unnoticed by most casual observers. The folks that matter have taken notice, however, giving North Carolina a lofty top-10 ranking. I look for the Tar Heels to live up to expectations for another week. Perhaps some bettors were put off by the Heels in their narrow four-point win as a two-touchdown favorite against Boston College two weeks ago - their only road game so far this season. UNC was clearly almost caught flat-footed in that contest but won't be caught off guard against a storied Florida State program here on Saturday. I don't believe the Seminoles have the personnel to keep up with the Tar Heels for four quarters. We saw UNC take Virginia Tech far away from its gameplan last Saturday and I expect a similar story to unfold here. Take North Carolina (10*). |
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10-17-20 | Texas A&M -4.5 v. Mississippi State | 28-14 | Win | 100 | 29 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on Texas A&M minus the points over Mississippi State at 4 pm et on Saturday. Mississippi State came up with a huge upset win on the road against LSU in its season-opener but has accomplished very little since, dropping back-to-back games against Arkansas and Kentucky. I don't expect the Bulldogs to pick themselves up off the mat in this clash with Texas A&M. The Aggies are fresh off a big win over Florida last Saturday. Their lone blemish is a loss at Alabama - albeit in blowout fashion - back on October 3rd. This is the start of a stretch of three straight truly winnable games for Texas A&M and I look for it to make the most of the opportunity. There's a bigger gap between these two SEC squads than the oddsmakers are accounting for. Take Texas A&M (10*). |
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10-17-20 | Kentucky v. Tennessee -6 | 34-7 | Loss | -106 | 25 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tennessee minus the points over Kentucky at 12 noon et on Saturday. We won by fading Tennessee in an eventual lopsided loss at Georgia last week but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the Vols this week as they return home to host Kentucky in SEC action. Kentucky is fresh off a 24-2 rout of upstart Mississippi State. Keep in mind, the Wildcats are still just 1-2 on the season, including a 29-13 loss at Auburn in their lone previous road game. The Vols meanwhile check in 2-1 with victories at South Carolina and at home against Missouri with the latter coming in blowout fashion. Off a poor showing against an elite Georgia defense last week I look for Vols QB Jarrett Guarantano to turn in a strong performance here. I don't see the Wildcats offense keeping pace for four quarters and believe we're dealing with a very reasonable pointspread here. Take Tennessee (10*). |
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10-16-20 | BYU v. Houston +5 | Top | 43-26 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
CFB Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Houston plus the points over BYU at 9:30 pm et on Friday. BYU remains undefeated on the season but after laying two touchdowns or more in three consecutive layups against inferior opposition, it will face a tough test on the road against Houston on Friday. With Houston having played just once it's not easy to for the oddsmakers to set an accurate line for this one and I feel they've missed the mark. QB Clayton Tune wasn't at his best in last week's rout of Tulane, but still managed to throw a pair of touchdown passes and run for another while amassing over 300 yards through the air. BYU certainly looked flat in last week's narrow 27-20 win over Texas-San Antonio. The Cougars will be taking a considerable step up in class here and I look for them to fall short of the mark in terms of the pointspread. Take Houston (10*). |
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10-15-20 | Georgia State v. Arkansas State UNDER 73 | 52-59 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Georgia State and Arkansas State at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'under' in last night's Sun Belt clash and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Georgia State is coming off a wild 49-29 shootout win last week but that came at the expense of East Carolina - a team that will be involved in plenty of shootouts this season. Likewise for Arkansas State as the Red Wolves are fresh off a 50-27 win over Central Arkansas - another team with a tendency to get involved in wild, high-scoring affairs. Add in the fact that last year's meeting between Georgia State and Arkansas State reached 90 total points and you can understand why I believe we're dealing with an inflated total here. Take the under (10*). |
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10-14-20 | Coastal Carolina v. UL-Lafayette UNDER 59 | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Coastal Carolina and Louisiana-Lafayette at 7:30 pm et on Wednesday. I'll take a shot with the 'under' as the Chanticleers and Ragin' Cajuns do battle in Sun Belt action on Wednesday night. Coastal Carolina has put up a whopping 133 points in going a perfect 3-0 this season. However, this will be their toughest test to date (they did face a Big 12 opponent but that was a bottom of the barrel Kansas squad). Louisiana-Lafayette has given up just 63 points in going a perfect 3-0 to start the season. Keep in mind, the Chanticleers haven't played since October 3rd while the Ragin' Cajuns have been idle since way back on September 26th. In keeping with the tradition of playing midweek 'unders', I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair than the oddsmakers here. Take the under (10*). |
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10-12-20 | Chargers v. Saints UNDER 50 | Top | 27-30 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 55 m | Show |
NFL MNF Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and New Orleans at 8:15 pm et on Monday. |
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10-11-20 | Giants v. Cowboys OVER 53.5 | 34-37 | Win | 100 | 25 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Dallas at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. The Cowboys have been an 'over' machine since their lower-scoring than expected season-opener against the Rams in Los Angeles and there's little reason to jump off the train here. The Giants offense has obviously struggled in the absence of RB Saquon Barkley but there's some reason for optimism as they face an absolutely putrid Cowboys offense on Sunday afternoon. Meanwhile, Cowboys QB Dak Prescott should feast on a Giants defense that has yet to face an offense like that of Dallas this season. This Cowboys offense is on a record-setting pace and the G-Men will be hard-pressed to come up with answers. With that being said, the 'Boys are single-digit favorites (at the time of writing) for a reason and we could see a competitive game here. That lends itself to a high-scoring affair in my opinion. Take the over (10*). |
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10-11-20 | Cardinals -7 v. Jets | 30-10 | Win | 100 | 22 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona minus the points over New York at 1 pm et on Sunday. This is a massive bounce-back spot for the Cardinals, who have largely been a disappointment to this point. With the Jets getting torched for over 4.5 yards per rush look for the Cards to go back to basics offensively and lean on their ground attack here. That should serve to open things up for QB Kyler Murray, whose best days almost certainly lie ahead of him following a tough start to the season. The Jets have literally zero upside at this point and this could very well be Adam Gase's final game as head coach. If they weren't able to keep up with the Brett Rypien-led Broncos last Thursday night, they're unlikely to stick with Kliff Kingsbury's Cards here. With veteran statue QB Joe Flacco taking over under center, Arizona will have no excuses for not containing a below average Jets offense. Take Arizona (10*). |
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10-11-20 | Raiders v. Chiefs -11 | Top | 40-32 | Loss | -108 | 23 h 33 m | Show |
NFL AFC West Game of the Year. My selection is on Kansas City minus the points over Las Vegas at 1 pm et on Sunday. I absolutely love the way this one sets up for the Chiefs, even as they play on a short week following Monday's sleepy win over the undermanned Patriots. Las Vegas has fallen on hard times following a hot start, and it's had everything to do with its schedule - which certainly doesn't get any easier here. I don't like the look of the Raiders offense right now at all, with RB Josh Jacobs stuck running behind a weak offensive line, and QB Derek Carr once again struggling to generate any productive plays down the field. Meanwhile, the Chiefs should feast on a Raiders defense that can't stop the run (they're giving up over five yards per rush this season) and are average against the pass. TE Travis Kelce should go off in this contest as he has traditionally owned the Raiders defense. Take Kansas City (10*). |
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10-11-20 | Panthers v. Falcons OVER 53.5 | Top | 23-16 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 19 m | Show |
NFL NFC South Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Carolina and Atlanta at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'm expecting another shootout at the Mercedes-Benz Dome in Atlanta on Sunday afternoon as the suddenly red hot Panthers roll into town to face the Falcons. Carolina should continue to thrive offensively against a Falcons defense that proven stout against the run but simply can't stop the pass - which has essentially been par for the course in recent years. The Panthers boast an underrated stable of wide receivers led by Robby Anderson and D.J. Moore and should dominate an injury-riddled Falcons defense. Meanwhile, the Atlanta offense is also dealing with some injuries but is expected to have WR Calvin Ridley on the field on Sunday afternoon. The Panthers haven't been able to get after opposing quarterbacks at all so Falcons QB Matt Ryan should have a much easier time than we saw in Monday's ugly loss to the Packers. There's a big difference between facing the Pack at Lambeau Field and hosting the Panthers in the Dome. Even Todd Gurley and the Falcons backfield could have a day on Sunday against a Panthers defense that allows 4.6 yards per rush. Take the over (10*). |
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10-10-20 | Middle Tennessee State v. Florida International -5.5 | 31-28 | Loss | -116 | 21 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on Florida International minus the points over Middle Tennessee State at 4 pm et on Saturday. Middle Tennessee State has proven to be one of the weakest teams in the nation this season, opening with four straight ugly losses. Things don't figure to get much easier against an FIU squad that will be looking for its first victory as well on Saturday afternoon. The difference is, the Panthers have played just one game. They came close in that contest, falling in a wild 36-34 contest against favored Liberty. That was back on September 26th. They've had an extra week off to prepare and should be ready for whatever MTSU throws at them on Saturday afternoon. The Panthers will certainly have revenge on their minds after falling by a 50-17 score against the Blue Raiders a year ago. This should prove to be a much different matchup. Take Florida International (10*). |
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10-10-20 | Tennessee v. Georgia -12 | Top | 21-44 | Win | 100 | 20 h 29 m | Show |
SEC Game of the Year. My selection is on Georgia minus the points over Tennessee at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. I'll lay the points with the Bulldogs on Saturday afternoon as they aim to remain undefeated in SEC play. While Tennessee checks in with an identical 2-0 record to that of Georgia, the Vols wins have come against the likes of South Carolina and Missouri. They'll be taking a major step up in class in this one. Georgia hasn't allowed a touchdown since the first five minutes of its season-opener against Arkansas two weeks ago. After struggling to get going in that contest, we saw the Bulldogs offense show signs of cohesion in last Saturday's 27-6 rout of Auburn. While there's certainly a look-ahead involved here as Georgia will travel to face Alabama next week, I believe that has been more than factored into this line. Look for the 'Dawgs defense to set the tone early and for their offense to ultimately come up with enough big play to put the game away late. Take Georgia (10*). |
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10-10-20 | Virginia Tech v. North Carolina -3 | 45-56 | Win | 100 | 17 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on North Carolina minus the points over Virginia Tech at 12 noon et on Saturday. This line has come down into our play range as the Tar Heels host the Hokies on Saturday afternoon. North Carolina is off to a 2-0 start but didn't look at that impressive in its most recent victory over Boston College. This is an opportunity for the Tar Heels to make a real statement in ACC play against undefeated Virginia Tech. The Hokies are coming off an unimpressive single touchdown win over what had previously been a lifeless Duke squad. I'm just not convinced the Virginia Tech offense can keep up for four quarters against a North Carolina team that is underrated on both sides of the football in my opinion. Take North Carolina (10*). |
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10-09-20 | Louisville v. Georgia Tech UNDER 64.5 | 27-46 | Loss | -112 | 22 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Louisville and Georgia Tech at 7 pm et on Friday. We're dealing with a very high posted total for this one considering neither offense is all that complex or difficult to prepare for and both teams are coming off a bye week so they've had plenty of time to get ready. Louisville will be desperate to get back on track following consecutive losses to Miami and Pittsburgh. Likewise for Georgia Tech, even if its hopes weren't quite as high as those of the Cardinals entering the season. The Yellow Jackets have dropped consecutive games in blowout fashion against Central Florida and Syracuse. Note that Georgia Tech has yet to score more than 21 points in a game this season. The last meeting between these two teams totaled 94 points but that was back in 2018. Here, I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair than most. Take the under (10*). |
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10-08-20 | Bucs v. Bears UNDER 44.5 | Top | 19-20 | Win | 100 | 24 h 31 m | Show |
TNF Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Tampa Bay and Chicago at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. We missed the mark with the 'under' in the Bucs wild, high-scoring win over the Chargers last Sunday but did manage to cash the 'under' in the Bears blowout loss to the Colts. Here, I'll stick with the 'under' as these two 3-1 teams do battle. Playing on a short week the Bucs are in tough with a number of key cogs banged up on offense. Chris Godwin and O.J. Howard have both shown some good chemistry with Tom Brady in the early going but now both are sidelined. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay's backfield continues to deal with a number of injuries as well. Of course they'll be up against an above average Bears defense, on the road no less, on a short week. I have very little faith in the Nick Foles-led Bears offense right now and if you've followed my plays regularly this season you know that I'm high on the Bucs defense. Note that Tampa Bay is giving up just 2.4 yards per rush this season and that really hamstrings a struggling Bears offense. Outside of WR Allen Robinson, there's really no one all that imposing on the Chicago offense. This has the makings of a relatively low-scoring affair. Take the under (10*). |
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10-08-20 | Tulane +7 v. Houston | 31-49 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tulane plus the points over Houston at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. We know what we're getting with Tulane. The Green Wave are off to a 2-1 start with their lone loss coming in a stunning blown 24-0 halftime lead against Navy. Tulane successfully bounced back from that disappointing loss, delivering a 66-24 win over Southern Miss. Now the Green Wave come in well rested having not played since posting that blowout victory on September 26th. Meanwhile, we don't really know what we're going to get from Houston. The Cougars will be playing their first game of the season and I'm willing to bet that they might not be as good as advertised, or as the betting marketplace believes anyway. I'll grab all the points I can get in this Thursday night matchup. Take Tulane (10*). |
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10-05-20 | Falcons v. Packers OVER 56.5 | 16-30 | Loss | -109 | 25 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Green Bay at 8:50 pm et on Monday. This is the being pegged as an explosive shootout by the oddsmakers and I tend to agree. The Falcons have to be in desperation mode at this point and they do draw a favorable matchup against a very beatable Packers defense. The strength of Atlanta is obviously in its offense and while Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley are questionable to play I would bank on one, if not both of the Falcons offense stars suiting up. It may not even matter as Atlanta should find success moving the football on the ground as well with Green Bay having allowed north of five yards per rush this season. The Packers offense is red hot entering this matchup and should face little resistance from a non-existent Falcons defense. Note that Packers QB Aaron Rodgers has absolutely eviscerated the Falcons lately, passing for over 1,000 yards, 11 touchdowns and just two interceptions in his last four games against them. He loses WR Allen Lazard but should have superstar Davante Adams back on the field. Take the over (10*). |
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10-04-20 | Colts v. Bears UNDER 43.5 | 19-11 | Win | 100 | 76 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Indianapolis and Chicago at 1 pm et on Sunday. While scoring is up across the league through the first three weeks of the season, I'm anticipating a relatively low-scoring affair in Chicago on Sunday afternoon. The Colts should continue to pound away on the ground behind standout rookie RB Jonathan Taylor. QB Philip Rivers has been relegated to 'game manager' status in the latter stages of his career and he should be firmly planted in that role against a solid Bears defense on Sunday. Meanwhile, the Chicago offense will turn to QB Nick Foles after he rallied the team to a come-from-behind win in Atlanta last Sunday. Don't count on another sharp performance from Foles here as he faces an above average but perhaps still underrated Colts defense. We won with the 'over' in the Bears victory over the Falcons last week, but I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the 'under' in this one. Take the under (10*). |
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10-04-20 | Chargers v. Bucs UNDER 43.5 | 31-38 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Tampa Bay at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Bucs defense remains an underrated unit, perhaps overshadowed by the team's star-laden offense. Note that the Bucs run defense is allowing under three yards per rush this season. Here, I look for the Tampa Bay defense to dominate a struggling Chargers offense led by rookie QB Justin Herbert. Los Angeles' 2020 campaign pretty much got derailed before it started due to a number of key injuries on both sides of the football. Coming off a discouraging home loss to the Panthers last week there's little reason to anticipate a big bounce-back performance, particularly from the Chargers offense, here. Look for the Bucs to continue to pound away long, clock churning drives on their way to a third straight victory, helping cash 'under' tickets in the process. Take the under (10*). |
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10-04-20 | Vikings v. Texans OVER 54.5 | 31-23 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'over' in the Vikings narrow 31-30 home loss to the Titans last week and I'll go right back to the well with the same play as Minnesota travels to face the reeling Texans on Sunday afternoon. This is another prime blow-up spot for Vikings RB Dalvin Cook as he faces a Houston defense that has been shredded for nearly six yards per rush this season. Even QB Kirk Cousins is set up for success given the Texans complete inability to pressure opposing quarterbacks. On the flip side, the Texans finally catch a scheduling break here after a tough three-game slate to open the season (Chiefs, Ravens and Steelers). The Vikings defense is a shell of its former self due to injuries and offseason departures. Like the Houston defense, Minnesota hasn't been able to get to opposing quarterbacks and figures to struggle against big-time playmaker QB DeShaun Watson in this one. Take the over (10*). |
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10-04-20 | Jaguars v. Bengals OVER 49 | Top | 25-33 | Win | 100 | 73 h 43 m | Show |
NFL AFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Jacksonville and Cincinnati at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'm expecting a shootout between these two AFC bottom-feeders on Sunday afternoon in Cincinnati. Jacksonville got stymied by the Dolphins of all teams in last week's Thursday nighter. It's interesting that most had high hopes for the Jags Gardner Minshew-led offense heading into that game (myself included) but are now quick to write them off. I'm confident we'll see a big bounce-back performance from the Jags offense against a very beatable Bengals defense on Sunday afternoon. Jacksonville is set up well to open things up given Cincinnati has done little to slow opposing ground attacks, allowing north of 5.2 yards per rush this season. Meanwhile, the Bengals offense has plenty of upside with QB Joe Burrow moving the football consistently in an up-tempo attack. With Jacksonville showing some ability to shut down opposing running games, look for Burrow to take to the air and expose a very beatable Jags secondary in this one. While A.J. Green has been a virtual no-show, the rest of the Bengals receivers have been quietly performing well and building a nice rapport with the rookie Burrow. Look for continued progression from the Cincinnati offense on Sunday. Take the over (10*). |
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10-04-20 | Ravens -13 v. Washington Football Team | Top | 31-17 | Win | 100 | 73 h 32 m | Show |
NFL Non-Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Baltimore minus the points over Washington at 1 pm et on Sunday. This is an absolute smash spot for the Ravens, who obviously have a bad taste in their mouths following Monday's dismantling at the hands of the Chiefs. Washington has been competitive in two of its three games this season, even winning one of them (we cashed with Washington in its Week 1 win over Philadelphia), but there have been some major red flags raised over the last two weeks. QB Dwayne Haskins is looking less and less like the answer for this offense, although he hasn't had much help from his supporting cast outside of WR Terry McLaurin. Here, he faces an elite Baltimore defense that is far better than it showed against Kansas City's 'next-level' offense on Monday night. The Ravens offense is in position to roll against a suddenly injury-plagued Washington defense that lost Matt Ioannidis and Chase Young last Sunday. Note that Washington has allowed nearly 400 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns through three games this season. Its secondary is arguably its weakest point and I'm confident Ravens QB Lamar Jackson will take full advantage of that leaky back-end in this one. With their next game coming at home against the winless Bengals next week, there's no reason for the Ravens to look past Washington. Take Baltimore (10*). |
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10-03-20 | LSU -21 v. Vanderbilt | 41-7 | Win | 100 | 54 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on LSU minus the points over Vanderbilt at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. I'll lay the big number with LSU in a strong bounce-back spot on the road against Vanderbilt on Saturday. The Tigers fell short in a stunning 44-34 loss to Mississippi State last Saturday. They draw a far more favorable matchup here against the Commodores. Vandy held its own in a narrow 17-12 setback on the road against a good Texas A&M squad so there's reason to believe it will be full of confidence heading into this one. However, I'm not convinced the Commodores can stay competitive with another poor offensive showing in this one. Note that A&M was driving to potentially go up 21-5 in the third quarter of last week's game before fumbling the football and giving Vandy good field position in what led to the Commodores only touchdown of the game. I'm not sure that contest was quite as close as the final score indicated. LSU shook off the cobwebs last Saturday and I'm confident we'll see a far better performance on both sides of the football this week. Take LSU (10*). |
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10-03-20 | Tulsa v. Central Florida -21 | Top | 34-26 | Loss | -108 | 55 h 34 m | Show |
CFB Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Central Florida minus the points over Tulsa at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. This game has blowout written all over it as Central Florida looks to move to 3-0 on the season. The Knights haven't been particularly sharp, or not as sharp as they'd like to be, on the defensive side of the football but they draw a terrific 'get right' matchup here. Tulsa has played just one game so far this season, falling in a very low-scoring affair against Oklahoma State two weeks ago. Credit the Golden Hurricane for keeping the Cowboys offense at bay in that contest but if their offensive performance (minus RB Shamari Brooks) was any indication, they could be in for a long year. Tulsa actually upset Central Florida by a 34-31 last season so revenge will be on the minds of the Knights here. UCF already appears to be in midseason form offensively after routing East Carolina last Saturday. QB Dillon Gabriel has been extremely efficient and consistent through two games, passing for 825 yards, four touchdowns and just one interception. I don't need to tell you that the Knights offense is absolutely loaded and should run wild against a very beatable Tulsa defense here. Without Brooks in the backfield I just don't see how the Golden Hurricane keep within arm's reach for four quarters on Saturday. Take Central Florida (10*). |
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10-03-20 | Virginia Tech -11.5 v. Duke | 38-31 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on Virginia Tech minus the points over Duke at 4 pm et on Saturday. I had Duke pegged as one of the ACC's worst teams at the onset of the season and we've already successfully faded the Blue Devils once, cashing with Boston College in a blowout two weeks ago. Here, I'll go back to the well and fade Duke again as it hosts Virginia Tech. The Hokies made their long-awaited season debut last Saturday, rolling to a 45-24 win over N.C. State. I like the fact that Virginia Tech has room for improvement here, however, particularly on the defensive side of the football. Duke shouldn't pose much of a threat offensively, noting that it has scored a grand total of just 39 points through three games - all losses - this season. While they did put up a season-high 20 points in last week's loss at Virginia, there were extended scoring droughts once again as they managed a touchdown on a defensive breakdown with one minute remaining in the first quarter but then didn't find the end zone again until over midway through the third quarter - their last score of the game. Take Virginia Tech (10*). |
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10-03-20 | Memphis -1.5 v. SMU | Top | 27-30 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 50 m | Show |
CFB AAC Game of the Year. My selection is on Memphis minus the points over SMU at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. Since Memphis last played back on September 5th, SMU has played a pair of games, winning in blowout fashion against North Texas and Stephen F. Austin (scoring a whopping 115 points in the process). Most bettors have short memories so it's easy to understand why the idle Tigers are laying only a couple of points in this matchup. I certainly consider Memphis to be the superior team. Note that the Tigers season-opening win came over an Arkansas State squad that went on to defeat Kansas State on the road the very next week. That win looks a lot better now than it did in early September. I'm confident the Tigers will be able to shake off the rust and I believe they'll benefit from facing a familiar opponent in SMU here. Note that Memphis recorded a wild 54-48 win over SMU in the most recent meeting between the schools last November. I'm concerned about the SMU defense in this one after it allowed 59 points in its two previous games against FBS opponents this season. An experienced Memphis offense is capable of scoring at will in this game and I expect the Tigers defense to be flying all over the field after nearly a month off. Take Memphis (10*). |
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10-03-20 | Baylor -2.5 v. West Virginia | 21-27 | Loss | -115 | 45 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on Baylor minus the points over West Virginia at 12 noon et on Saturday. Bettors seem to be a little low on Baylor in the early going this season. Last week they were laying a reasonable 17 points against a still-pitiful Kansas squad and went on to win the game by 34 points (we won with Baylor in that contest). Here, the Bears draw another favorable matchup against a rebuilding West Virginia squad. The Mountaineers dropped a 27-13 decision against Oklahoma State last Saturday. The fact that the Cowboys are still sleepwalking through their early season schedule played a factor in that game as far as I'm concerned. I'm not convinced West Virginia has the offense to keep pace with Baylor in this one. Take Baylor (10*). |
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10-01-20 | Broncos v. Jets +1 | 37-28 | Loss | -113 | 36 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York plus the points over Denver at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. I'll plug my nose and back the Jets in this Thursday night stinker. The Broncos carried some optimism into training camp back in August but let's face it, injuries have completely derailed their season. While this is a winnable game, I'm not convinced Denver has the personnel to do it. Note that Broncos quarterbacks have gotten absolutely crushed through three games - sacked a combined 13 times. Now they turn to inexperienced Brett Rypien, who doesn't figure to fare much better behind a leaky offensive line. Meanwhile, the Broncos injury-ravaged defense has done little to slow opposing quarterbacks, allowing a 68% completion percentage and forcing just one interception compared to seven touchdowns. With WR Jamison Crowder expected back on the field, I do look for Jets QB Sam Darnold to make a last stand, so to speak, and perhaps save his head coach Adam Gase's job (for one week anyway). Take New York (10*). |
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09-28-20 | Chiefs v. Ravens -170 | Top | 34-20 | Loss | -170 | 24 h 34 m | Show |
NFL Moneyline Game of the Year. My selection is on Baltimore (moneyline) over Kansas City at 8:15 pm et on Monday. It's not often I release plays on the moneyline, but here I believe it is warranted. I actually expect this price to become more favorable as kickoff approaches on Monday as we should see some money come in on the underdog Chiefs - a rare opportunity to back Kansas City at a plus-money return. I'll go the other way as I'm confident the Ravens will 'hold serve' in this their third meeting with the Chiefs over the last 2+ seasons. The Chiefs took the two previous matchups but both of those were played in Kansas City. The two victories came by a combined eight points. Note that the Ravens managed to score 52 points in those two losses and arguably have an even more cohesive offensive unit here in 2020. There's not a lot to say that hasn't already been said when it comes to the Chiefs offense. They're the defending Super Bowl champions for a reason. However, this will obviously be their toughest test of the young season to date as they face an absolutely loaded Ravens defense. In fact, you could argue that Baltimore's defense has been built to beat the likes of Kansas City. Here, I look for that 'D' to come up with enough big plays to ultimately hold off Patrick Mahomes and the mighty Chiefs. Take Baltimore moneyline (10*). |
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09-27-20 | Bucs -6 v. Broncos | 28-10 | Win | 100 | 74 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay minus the points over Denver at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. Credit the Broncos for making things interesting against the Steelers last Sunday. In fact, Denver checks into this one sporting a perfect 2-0 ATS record. I don't expect the Broncos to make it three straight ATS victories here, however, as this is a nightmarish matchup, even at home. The Bucs got on track with a sloppy but generally lopsided win over the Panthers last Sunday. I do expect them to sharpen things up on both sides of the football, but particularly on offense as the season progresses. This is a true smash spot for their offense against a Broncos defense that has simply been decimated by injuries. Offensively, Denver is forced to turn to Jeff Driskel in a starting role after Drew Lock went down last week. Not only that but Driskel won't have elite WR Courtland Sutton to work with as he's injured as well. There's just little reason to have any optimism that the Broncos can sustain drives or consistently put points on the board, particularly against an underrated Bucs defense that has done a nice job of handling the Saints and Panthers through two games. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
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09-27-20 | Jets v. Colts -11 | 7-36 | Win | 100 | 74 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Indianapolis minus the points over New York at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. I'll lay the points with the Colts on Sunday as they welcome the hapless Jets to Indy. Despite facing an injury-decimated 49ers squad, the Jets still went out and embarrassed themselves last Sunday, thankfully without their fans in the stadium. Now they draw a more unfavorable matchup as they travel to face a Colts squad that 'got right' in last week's rout of the Vikings. The Indy defense should absolutely feast on an undermanned Jets offense here. The Colts enter this game ranking third in the NFL in sacks with seven and should take advantage of a Jets o-line that is missing its anchor, C Connor McGovern. With the Jets giving up five yards per rush this season they're unlikely to slow the quickly-ascending rookie RB Jonathan Taylor. QB Philip Rivers isn't much more than a game-manager at this stage of his career, although I will point out that his numbers would look a little better were it not for a key T.Y. Hilton drop that would have resulted in a long touchdown last week. Here, look for the Colts to take care of the football on offense, capitalize on a number of short fields afforded by their defense and win in convincing fashion. Take Indianapolis (10*). |
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