For any resources you could need like sports handicapping odds, handicapping stats, schedules, or handicappers free picks and tips please click on any of the links on the right hand side of this page.
CLICK A CAPPERS NAME TO SEE THEIR PREMIUM DAILY EXPERT PLAYS + PREDICTIONS!
Schedule: NFL |Â CFB |Â MLB |Â NBA |Â CBB |Â NHL
WANT FREE SPORTS PICKS to your inbox? | Newsletter Sign-UP!
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
12-30-21 | Arizona State v. Wisconsin OVER 41 | Top | 13-20 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 16 m | Show |
CFB Bowl First Half Total of the Year. My selection is on the first half 'over' between Arizona State and Wisconsin at 10:30 pm et on Thursday.
This is one of the lowest totals we'll see during Bowl season and while I can certainly understand the logic behind it, I believe it sets us up well to attack the first half total with a play on the 'over'. The common line of thinking here is that Wisconsin is going to pound the football all night long while Arizona State simply looks to possess the football for extended stretches and ultimately shorten this game in an effort to stay competitive. I actually think we'll see the Sun Devils and Badgers both take some shots down the field early on, however, in an effort to catch the opposing stout defenses off guard and open things up for the ground games to go off later in the contest. In other words, I can certainly see the game getting off to a relatively high-scoring start before the defenses and ground games settle in. Note that the Sun Devils saw an average total of 28.8 points scored in the first half in their games played away from home this season. Their defense certainly looked beatable away from Tempe, giving up 17 points per game in the first half. Wisconsin's defense allowed 1.5 points per game more in the first half away from home compared to at home, with its road contests totalling an average of 19.8 points - just shy of the number we're working with tonight. I have plenty of respect for the Wisconsin defense but here it will be facing a different type of offense than it's accustomed to seeing in the Big 10, with Sun Devils QB Jayden Daniels a dual-threat capable of creating splash plays with his arm or his legs. Meanwhile, Badgers fans are hoping this can be a lift-off game for QB Graham Mertz heading into 2022, something they've of course been starving for all season. Look for him to be afforded the opportunity to push the ball down field early on. Take the first half over (10*). |
|||||||
12-29-21 | Iowa State v. Clemson OVER 44 | Top | 13-20 | Loss | -108 | 21 h 37 m | Show |
CFB Bowl Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Iowa State and Clemson at 5:45 pm et on Wednesday. This is one of the lowest posted totals we'll see in Bowl season. I believe it will prove too low. Iowa State is in for a bit of a 'shock to the system' here as Clemson ran the football 40+ times in six of its final 10 regular season games, and it had plenty of success doing so, particularly at the tail-end of the season as it piled up nearly 600 rushing yards in its final two contests. Only one of the Cyclones 12 opponents this season ran the football 40+ times. Note that two of their final three opponents gained over 200 yards on the ground. Of course, running the football equates to time off the clock. I'm not overly concerned, however, as I do feel the Clemson ground game should only serve to open things up for the pass. On the flip side, Iowa State is going to sling the football all over the field, especially without RB Breece Hall. The Cyclones threw the football 39, 42, 52 and 30 times over their final four regular season games, racking up over 300 yards passing in three of those games while scoring a whopping 48 points in the other. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
12-27-21 | Western Michigan v. Nevada UNDER 56.5 | 52-24 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Western Michigan and Nevada at 11 am et on Monday. The 'over' has been the best bet during Bowl season so far but I believe we'll see a different story unfold in Monday's Quick Lane Bowl in Detroit. Nevada will be missing the core of its team for this one with QB Carson Strong and WR Romeo Doubs among those sitting the game out to prepare for the upcoming NFL Draft, not to mention half the coaching staff moving on with head coach Jay Norvell. While the Wolf Pack boasted a high-octane offense throughout the regular season, I wouldn't count on seeing that here. Western Michigan had a few standout performances over the course of the season but for the most part, its offense disappointed. Here, the Broncos will need to be cautious as they've had a tendency to turn the football over and Nevada has had a knack for forcing the same with 12 over its final five regular season games. Western Michigan has generally been a run-first team, topping out at 22 or less pass completions in all but one of its games this season (that coming in a stunning 44-41 upset win at Pitt back in September). I think we'll see both teams come out and look to control the time of possession in this one, ultimately working into our favor with a play on the 'under'. Take the under (8*). |
|||||||
12-23-21 | Central Florida v. Florida UNDER 56 | 29-17 | Win | 100 | 28 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Central Florida and Florida at 7 pm et on Thursday. It seems that all anyone can remember when it comes to Florida - apart from its horrible play under then-head coach Dan Mullen - was the fact that it gave up 52 points against Samford back in November. Since then, the Gators have tightened things up, allowing 24 points against Missouri and 21 against Florida State. Here, they'll face a Central Florida squad that really only busted out offensively against the likes of Bethune-Cookman, Temple and UConn - three of the worst defensive teams around. On a positive note, the Knights did hold five of their final six opponents to 17 points or less and I do think they can manage this matchup as well, noting that outside of that 70-point outburst against Samford, Florida was held to 24 points or less in four of its final five games. We're talking about two defenses that held opponents to 59.4% passing (Central Florida) and 57% passing (Florida) this season. Given the fact that both teams have been somewhat vulnerable against the run this season, I expect both offenses to focus on keeping it on the ground for stretches in this one and with a total in the mid-to-high 50's that has me firmly on the 'under'. Take the under (8*). |
|||||||
12-23-21 | Miami-OH v. North Texas UNDER 55 | Top | 27-14 | Win | 100 | 24 h 21 m | Show |
CFB Bowl Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami-Ohio and North Texas at 3:30 pm et on Thursday. I love the way this one sets up as a lower-scoring game than most are expecting on Thursday. Miami-Ohio is coming off a wild 48-47 loss to Kent State (who we saw light it up but also fail to come up with any stops in Tuesday's lopsided loss against Wyoming). In fact, the 'over' has cashed in three of the Redhawks last four games. They threw all over the likes of Ohio, Buffalo and aforementioned Kent State over that stretch. I wouldn't anticipate them doing the same here. Note that North Texas allowed 20+ pass completions on only three occasions this season, against SMU, Missouri and Marshall. Over the Mean Green Eagles' last six games they held the opposition to a combined 97-for-184 (53%) passing. It's not as if teams simply elected to run all over them either, only UTSA (with standout RB Sincere McCormick) managed to gain more than 113 yards on the ground against them over that stretch. On the flip side, North Texas employs a run-first offense. Only twice this season did it complete more than 17 passes and it managed to score a combined 38 points in those two contests against SMU and Liberty where it was forced to play in catch-up mode. Miami-Ohio was respectable defending the run this season, holding opponents that average 4.4 yards per rush to 4.3 ypr. I don't envision the Redhawks getting taken advantage of through the air in this one, noting that they've been accustomed to facing pass-first offenses in the MAC, noting that they've seen 30+ pass attempts in eight straight games heading into this one. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 70-48 the last 118 times Miami-Ohio has come off a loss with those games totalling an average of just 47.3 points. Meanwhile, the 'under' is a perfect 7-0 with North Texas coming off five or more consecutive wins, as is the case here, with that spot producing an average total of 47.0 points. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
12-18-21 | Marshall v. UL-Lafayette UNDER 55.5 | 21-36 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Marshall and Louisiana-Lafayette at 9:15 pm et on Saturday. There always seems to be a tendency for bettors to look to play the 'over' in the New Orleans Bowl with the game being played on the 'fast track' at the Superdome annually. It's worth noting, however, that five of the last New Orleans Bowls have totaled 48 points or less. Here, I'm anticipating another 'under' result. Marshall actually posted two of its three lowest scoring totals of the season in two of its last three games. The Thundering Herd have more of a 'pass-first' offense but could run into trouble here given Louisiana-Lafayette has allowed just two opponents to complete 20+ passes this season and in those two teams they still gave up only 24 and 21 points. The Ragin' Cajuns have more of a 'run-first' mentality and enter this game with a number of key cogs on offense banged up or sidelined altogether due to injury. You would have to go back to October 30th to find the last time they completed more than 19 passes. They did so only three times all season and two of those performances came in the first three weeks of the season. Marshall is by no means a defensive juggernaut but did hold opponents to 54% pass completions and just 6.2 yards per pass attempt over the course of the regular season. Take the under (8*). |
|||||||
12-18-21 | UTEP v. Fresno State OVER 51.5 | Top | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 6 h 7 m | Show |
Bowl Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between UTEP and Fresno State at 2:15 pm et on Saturday. There's a lot of uncertainty around Fresno State this week, stemming from QB Jake Haener seemingly transferring from the program but then reversing course and returning to the team in time for Bowl week. I'm not overly concerned. Haener is with the team and likely to at least see some action in this one. Even if he doesn't, the Bulldogs offense is capable of going off against a Miners defense that sagged down the stretch. UTEP comes in on a 1-4 slide, allowing 28, 44, 20, 28 and 42 points over that stretch. The good news for the Miners is they do have an offense capable of putting points on the board with a standout WR duo in Jacob Cowing and Justin Garrett who have the ability to blow the top off of any secondary. Note that while the Miners are generally a run-first team, they're likely to be playing from behind for the majority of this game and in that scenario we saw them bomb away down the stretch, attempting 30+ passes in four of their final five regular season games. The 'over' went 4-1 in UTEP's five losses this season. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
12-17-21 | Coastal Carolina v. Northern Illinois OVER 62.5 | 47-41 | Win | 100 | 9 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Coastal Carolina and Northern Illinois at 6 pm et on Friday. I'm expecting plenty of offensive fireworks between these two teams on Friday. Northern Illinois could be in for a shock to the system here as few opponents have elected to attack them through the air with any consistency this season but Coastal Carolina will with standout QB Grayson McCall looking to show off his talents in front of both NFL scouts and perhaps other schools as well as it sounds like he may be back for a final year of college but is likely to transfer from CCU. When the Huskies did face pass-first offenses this season they gave up 20 points against Eastern Michigan, 26 points against Bowling Green and 38 points against Central Michigan - all three boasting far weaker aerial attacks than the one they'll face on Friday. On the flip side, the Chanticleers are going to face a much different challenge than they're used to here as well, noting that Northern Illinois will pound the football on the ground and has had a ton of success doing so. Coastal Carolina gave up 25 points against Buffalo, 30 points against Appalachian State and 42 points against Georgia State in three previous games where the opposition ran the football 40+ times this season - as NIU is likely to do on Friday. Note that the Huskies enter this game having scored 34, 39, 47, 30, 33, 21 and 41 points in their last seven games. The 21-point performance came in a game against Western Michigan where they played their backups with a spot in the MAC Championship Game already clinched. Take the over (8*). |
|||||||
12-11-21 | Navy v. Army UNDER 35.5 | 17-13 | Win | 100 | 27 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Navy and Army at 3 pm et on Saturday. Much has been made of the long 'under' streak in this series, which quite literally goes back nearly two decades. The oddsmakers have obviously made their adjustments, shifting the total all the way down to the mid-30's for this year's matchup. I'm still not sure it's enough. Note that the last two times we've seen totals posted in the 30's in this rivalry, the final score has reached just 27 (2018) and 15 points (2020). Navy checks in having averaged a woeful 4.3 points in its last six non-conference games. Army, meanwhile, has averaged just 17 points the last 60 times it has come off a bye week, as is the case here. We're certainly not going to see much passing in this contest. Both teams know their strength lies in pounding away with their triple-option based offenses. Note that Navy completed just 25-of-55 (45%) of its passes in games where it attempted more than eight passes this season. In games where Army attempted more than six passes it completed only 25-of-53 (47%) of its passes. While both defenses were exposed by the better passing offenses they faced over the course of the regular season, they both excelled against the run with Navy limiting opponents that average 4.6 yards per rush to just 4.1 ypr and Army holding opponents that average 4.3 ypr to only 3.7 ypr. No reason to re-invent the wheel here. While this total may appear very low, I believe it might actually look pretty steep by the time halftime rolls around on Saturday. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
12-03-21 | Holy Cross v. Villanova UNDER 49.5 | Top | 16-21 | Win | 100 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
FCS Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Holy Cross and Villanova at 7 pm et on Friday. This matchup pits two of the best defensive teams in FCS. Holy Cross ran roughshod over the rest of the Patriot League but barely survived its playoff test against Sacred Heart last week, rallying for a 13-10 victory thanks to a touchdown in the closing seconds. The Crusaders struggled to get anything going offensively in that game and they'll be hard-pressed to bounce back in that regard against a championship-caliber defense in Villanova. Note that the Wildcats earned a first-round bye so they'll be taking the field for the first time in a couple of weeks on Friday night - this is a team with true FCS Championship aspirations, entering as the five-seed. What Holy Cross can hang its hat on is its own stout defense. The Crusaders have an outstanding defensive line, camping out in opposing backfields all season to rank fifth in the country in sacks. Both teams would be wise to keep the football on the ground for much of the evening, noting that the two defenses have had a knack for forcing turnovers. Holy Cross ranks tied for second in the country in interceptions while Villanova sits just behind, tied for third. The Wildcats have allowed just 18 offensive touchdowns in 11 games so far this season. In terms of yards per play allowed, these two teams both sit inside the top-four in FCS. You get the picture. Many bettors simply looking for early action on Friday night might look to the 'over' with this total sitting in the 40's. I believe it's the wrong move, however, as this game has the potential to be a slugfest. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
11-27-21 | Texas A&M v. LSU UNDER 47 | 24-27 | Loss | -114 | 8 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Texas A&M and LSU at 7 pm et on Saturday. I'm not expecting much of the way of offensive fireworks in this SEC showdown on Saturday night. Texas A&M will be looking for a soft landing as it wraps up the regular season with this winnable road game against LSU. I'm not convinced we're going to see the Aggies take a ton of chances on offense in this one, knowing that they likely won't need to score much to prevail. Keep in mind, LSU ended a string of three straight games scoring 17 or less points by putting up just 27 against lowly Louisiana-Monroe last week. If the Tigers are going to stay competitive in this game they're going to have to play tough defense and we know they're capable of that. LSU held mighty Alabama to only 20 points, on the road no less, earlier this month. We've certainly seen the Tigers play their best defensive football down the stretch, giving up just 50 points combined over their last three games. The 'under' has cashed in the last two meetings in this series with the two teams taking turns scoring just seven points in road losses. Take the under (7*). |
|||||||
11-27-21 | Hawaii v. Wyoming UNDER 48.5 | 38-14 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Hawaii and Wyoming at 3 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams are coming off 'over' results last week. I look for a different story to unfold on Saturday afternoon in Laramie, however. Keep in mind, this has been a low-scoring matchup in recent years with the last two meetings producing just 30 and 38 points. While Hawaii did hang 50 points on Colorado State last week, consistency simply hasn't been there for the Rainbow Warriors offense this season. Case in point, two weeks ago they were held to just 13 points in a two-touchdown loss at UNLV. Here, the Warriors will be up against a tough Wyoming defense that has allowed just 5.7 yards per pass attempt against opponents that average 7.1 yppa. The Cowboys haven't been quite as tough against the run but the Warriors simply don't have the horses to expose that weakness. Wyoming delivered a 44-17 win over Utah State last week - a somewhat stunning result as it was a 5.5-point underdog heading in. Performances like that have been few and far between for a team that likes to run the football and let its defense take care of the rest. Note that the Cowboys have attempted just 49 passes combined in their last three games. The 'under' checks in 18-4 the last 22 times Wyoming has come off a game that totaled 60+ points, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 19-7 in Hawaii's last 26 games following a conference win by seven points or less. Take the under (8*). |
|||||||
11-26-21 | UTEP v. UAB UNDER 50.5 | Top | 25-42 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 24 m | Show |
C-USA Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between UTEP and UAB at 2 pm et on Friday. Both of these teams are coming off high-scoring results last week. UTEP matched a season-high for points scored, hanging 38 on Rice in a 10-point victory. UAB fell in a wild one against UTSA, dropping a 34-31 decision. Here, I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair as the Miners and Blazers wrap up the C-USA regular season. Both teams want to run the football on offense but it's notable that the two defenses have held up well against the run, with UTEP allowing 3.7 yards per rush and UAB even better, giving up just 3.0 yards per rush against opponents that average 4.2 ypr this season. Note that UTEP also checks in allowing just 6.8 yards per pass attempt. UAB has been slightly worse in that department, giving up 7.0 yards per pass attempt but that's against opponents that average 7.4 yppa. While UAB has given up north of 550 passing yards in its last two games combined, those two contests came on the road against quality offenses in Marshall and UTSA. Despite last week's 38-point outburst, UTEP is no offensive juggernaut having scored 30, 13, 26, 25 and 17 points in its five road games this season. UAB scored a season-high 52 points in its most recent home game but that came against a reeling Louisiana Tech squad. Both of these teams will be going Bowling this season and I anticipate a tightly-contested affair on Friday. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
11-26-21 | Boise State v. San Diego State UNDER 44.5 | 16-27 | Win | 100 | 24 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Boise State and San Diego State at 12 noon et on Friday. This may appear to be a low total at first glance but numbers like this have been commonplace in games involving San Diego State this season. Note that the 'under' has cashed in five of the Aztecs last seven games overall. As for Boise State, each of its last six contests have stayed 'under' the total. Both teams like to run the football. Both teams are capable of playing exceptional defense. The Broncos and Aztecs haven't met since 2018 but the last time they did they combined to score just 32 points. Look for more of the same in this very early start at the Dignity Health Sports Park in Carson, California on Friday morning. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
11-25-21 | Ole Miss v. Mississippi State OVER 63 | Top | 31-21 | Loss | -115 | 30 h 29 m | Show |
SEC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Ole Miss and Mississippi State at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. We're dealing with a lower posted total than we saw in this same matchup last season despite the fact that I think we're better-positioned for a true shootout on Thursday. Ole Miss has seen the 'under' cash in six consecutive games heading into this one. The fact is, the Rebels ultra-fast offense hasn't had to score a whole lot in recent weeks, simply due to the type of opponents it has gone up against. Here, I expect a different story to unfold. Mississippi State doesn't run the football often. The Bulldogs have just 60 rush attempts over their last three games combined. Over that same stretch they attempted a whopping 150 passes, with considerable success, gaining over 1,300 yards through the air. Ole Miss has held up well defensively over the last few games, allowing less than 20 points in each contest. But we got a first hand look at just how bad the Rebels defense can be in an earlier matchup against Arkansas - a game in which they got lit up for 51 points in a narrow one-point win (and non-cover). The Bulldogs offense hasn't had a great deal of success in this series in recent years, but this is its best shot at lighting up the scoreboard. Expect plenty of offense on Thanksgiving Night. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
11-20-21 | UL-Lafayette v. Liberty OVER 53 | 42-14 | Win | 100 | 27 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Louisiana-Lafayette and Liberty at 4 pm et on Saturday. I believe this game could turn out to be one of the most entertaining on Saturday's entire college football board as the Ragin' Cajuns travel to face the Liberty Flames. Louisiana-Lafayette has actually been one of the best 'under' bets in the nation this season but as a result, we've seen the books over-adjust and now we're starting to see value shifting the other way, noting that last week's game sailed 'over' the total by eight points. While the Ragin' Cajuns do like to run the football, I see this as a smash spot for them through the air as Liberty simply hasn't faced many strong passing attacks this season. In the Flames most recent game they couldn't do anything to stop Ole Miss through the air as the Rebels completed 20-of-27 passes for 324 yards in an ultra-efficient, yet not overly high-scoring 27-14 victory. Of course, if the Ragin' Cajuns choose to pound away on the ground they should have success as well, noting that Liberty has been torched (no pun intended) for nearly 800 rushing yards over its last four games alone. On the flip side, the Flames are certainly a better offensive team than they showed against Ole Miss two weeks ago. This is a team that put up a whopping 202 points over its previous five contests before the loss to the Rebels. While Louisiana-Lafayette's defense looks good statistically, it has also faced a littany of weak offensive squads in recent weeks. When these two teams last met two years ago it was no contest as Louisana-Lafayette rolled to a 35-14 win. The Ragin' Cajuns were two-touchdown favorites in that game. The talent gap has certainly narrowed since then, and I fully expect to see Liberty get in on the act here as well. Take the over (9*). |
|||||||
11-16-21 | Bowling Green v. Miami-OH UNDER 51.5 | Top | 7-34 | Win | 100 | 10 h 39 m | Show |
CFB MAC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Bowling Green and Miami-Ohio at 8 pm et on Tuesday. The last time these two teams met almost two years ago to the day we saw a closing total of 47.5 points in a game that snuck just below that number. I believe we're dealing with a higher number here largely due to the recent wild, high-scoring results we've seen in these weeknight MAC tilts. In fact, the 'over' has cashed in each of Bowling Green's last five games while the 'over' is a perfect 2-0 in Miami-Ohio's last two contests. I look for a reversal of that trend here. Bowling Green's offense came crashing back to Earth last week following a 56-point outburst against Buffalo the previous week. Last Wednesday we saw the Eagles score just 17 points in a blowout loss at Toledo. Note that the Eagles have been held to 21 or fewer pass completions in five straight games, topping 16 completions only twice over that stretch. They're averaging just 6.5 yards per pass attempt against opponents that allow an average of 7.7 yards per pass attempt this season. Their running game hasn't been any better but I do expect them to lean on their ground attack in an effort to effectively shorten this contest as a big underdog on Tuesday night. Miami-Ohio scored a season-high 45 points in last week's win over Buffalo. It had previously topped out at 34 points this season. There's no question the Redhawks strength is on the defensive side of the football, noting that they've allowed 18 points or less in four of six conference games so far this season. While they did put up 45 points last week, that was on the strength of four Buffalo turnovers. Bowling Green has struggled this season but actually checks in having turned the football over only four times over its last four games combined. Finally, I'll note that the 'under' has gone an incredible 18-3 the last 21 times Miami-Ohio has come off consecutive 'over' results, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of just 47.3 points in that situation. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
11-13-21 | East Carolina v. Memphis OVER 59 | 30-29 | Push | 0 | 23 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between East Carolina and Memphis at 12 noon et on Saturday. The 'under' has cashed in each of East Carolina's last four games and each of Memphis' last three contests entering Saturday's matchup between these two AAC squads. I expect a different story to unfold here as this contest has serious shootout potential. East Carolina has benefited from playing from ahead in the last couple of weeks, rolling to lopsided wins over South Florida and Temple. I'm not sure the Pirates will be so fortunate here and fully expect them to be bombing away for much of the afternoon. Game script has allowed the Memphis defense to hold up just fine in recent weeks but I still consider that unit to be among the weakest in the conference, perhaps even the country. Keep in mind, this is the same Tigers squad that gave up 50 points against Arkansas State and 34 points against Temple earlier this season. Meanwhile, the Memphis offense has been held down by Central Florida and SMU over the last two contests but should bust loose here, noting that East Carolina has allowed 5.0 yards per rush and 8.1 yards per pass play on the road this season. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
11-12-21 | Wyoming v. Boise State UNDER 48.5 | Top | 13-23 | Win | 100 | 54 h 16 m | Show |
Mountain West Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Wyoming and Boise State at 9 pm et on Friday. Few pay much attention to the Wyoming Cowboys and perhaps rightfully so at this point as they've fizzled with four losses in their last five games. For those that are paying attention, though, they know that the Cowboys can play some defense. That unit has remained healthy this season and it's loaded with experience and talent. The results on the field have bared that out as they've allowed 27 points or less in all but one of their games (consider that wild 50-43 victory over Northern Illinois back in Week 2 an aberration). They're allowing only 4.2 yards per rush and a staggering 5.7 yards per pass attempt. Boise State certainly offers a stiff challenge after putting up 40 points on the road against Fresno State last time out but it's not as if the Broncos have been consistently lighting up the scoreboard this season. Note that Boise State has been held to 28 points or less in five of its last seven games. The Broncos enter this contest playing some of their best defensive football of the season, having held three of their last four opponents under 20 points. Not surprisingly, the 'under' cashed in all four of those games. Wyoming hasn't taken major strides forward offensively this season and we know the Broncos can contain that unit, noting that they've allowed a grand total of just 54 points in the last four meetings in this series. Both teams like to run the football, which obviously helps keep the clock moving and supports our cause with the 'under'. Note that Wyoming checks in having topped out at 15 pass completions in a game this season. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 54-35 in Wyoming's last 89 games a road underdog and 61-40 in Boise State's last 101 contests as a home favorite. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
11-06-21 | Houston v. South Florida OVER 52 | Top | 54-42 | Win | 100 | 25 h 45 m | Show |
CFB AAC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and South Florida at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. South Florida is coming off a lower-scoring result than expected against East Carolina in a primetime weeknight game last week. In fact, the Bulls are coming off back-to-back 'under' results. I'm anticipating a higher-scoring affair here, however, as they return home to host a rolling Houston squad on Saturday night. First, we'll note that the 'over' is a perfect 6-0 with South Florida coming off a road loss against a conference opponent over the last 2+ seasons with that situation resulting in an average total of 72.0 points. Also note that the last seven times USF has come off an ATS loss it has seen its next contest average a whopping 67.0 points. If the Bulls are going to keep this game even remotely competitive, they're going to need to step up their game offensively. The good news is they are expected to have dual-threat QB Timothy McClain back on the field. Houston has padded its defensive stats against the likes of Rice and FCS squad Grambling. There was also a weeknight affair that completely got away from Tulsa, which has been highly-inconsistent offensively. Here, I think we see the Cougars once again go off offensively, having scored 44, 45 and 40 points in their three previous road games this season. FCS squad Florida A&M and Temple (one of the worst FBS teams in the country in my opinion) are the only two opponents that USF has held to under 29 points this season. Note that Houston has scored at least 56 points in each of the last two meetings in this series. The last two matchups have totaled at least 77 points. This total is too low with last week's poor showing from the Bulls in front of a national audience factoring heavily into the number. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
11-05-21 | Virginia Tech v. Boston College OVER 46.5 | Top | 3-17 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
ACC Total of the Month. My selection is on the the 'over' between Virginia Tech and Boston College at 7:30 pm et on Friday. While both of these teams have been involved in some low-scoring games recently, I believe the betting markets have over-adjusted when it comes to this total. Keep in mind, Virginia Tech is just one game removed from a wild game against Syracuse that totaled 77 points. Speaking of Syracuse, Boston College tangled with the Orange last week, losing an ugly 21-6 decision at the Carrier Dome. That extremely low final score was somewhat misleading, however. In that game, Boston College marched down the field to just outside the Orange red zone on its first drive of the game but was stopped on fourth down. The very next drive Syracuse took the ball all the way to the Boston College three-yard line before coughing up a fumble. Two of the next three drives after that would see the Orange drive into BC territory before being stopped on fourth down and then the Eagles stalling at the Syracuse 14-yard line before settling for a field goal. You get the picture. Boston College has actually only had the benefit of playing two home games to date this season. It recorded a thrilling 41-34 overtime win over Missouri in one of them before being held in check by a good N.C. State team in a 33-7 loss in mid-October. Virginia Tech is coming off a game against Georgia Tech that reached 43 total points despite a whopping 83 rush attempts in the game. The Hokies have been alternating high and low-scoring games over the last month. They haven't posted consecutive 'under' results since opening the season with three in a row and even during that stretch, two of those three games went 'over' the number we're dealing with tonight. You would have to go back four meetings to 2017 to find the last time these two teams played a game that totaled less than 52 points. We've seen closing totals of 57, 56.5 and 61.5 in the last three meetings and the last time the Hokies and Eagles matched up in Chestnut Hill they combined to score 63 points two years ago. Again, while both of these offenses have been prone to scoring droughts, I believe this total has been set too low. With both teams desperate for a victory to keep Bowl hopes alive, I expect them to come out with an attacking mentality on Friday night. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
11-03-21 | Central Michigan v. Western Michigan UNDER 66.5 | 42-30 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Central Michigan and Western Michigan at 7 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a wild, high-scoring game between these two teams last season as Western Michigan prevailed by a 52-44 score. Keep in mind, prior to that you would have to go back to 2015 to find the last time the two teams combined to put up more than 63 points. I'm expecting a lower-scoring affair this time around as both teams enter this pivotal MAC showdown sporting identical 2-2 conference records. Western Michigan is known for its offense and while it is capable of putting up points in bunches, it has also been prone to scoring lapses this season, as noted by the fact that it has been held to 24 points or less in four of its last five games. The lone explosion over that stretch came in a 64-31 rout of a Kent State squad that doesn't play a lick of defense and operates at a break-neck pace on offense. I'm higher on the Western Michigan defense than some. This is a talented and experienced group that went into the Big House in Ann Arbor and didn't allow a touchdown against Michigan until nearly six minutes into the second quarter way back in Week 1. The Wolverines ultimately did get rolling in that game but it was evident that the Broncos weren't going to be pushovers defensively. Led by DL Ali Fayad, the Broncos defense should be able to pose plenty of problems for a less-than-stellar Central Michigan offensive line in this one. The Chippewas are coming off a 39-38 loss to Northern Illinois last time out. Combine that with their high-scoring loss to the Broncos in last year's meeting and you can understand why they wouldn't necessarily want to get involved in another shootout here. The Chippewas started the season with Washington transfer Jacob Sirmon at quarterback but he's since been replaced by Daniel Richardson. Richardson, while experienced running the offense, hasn't been all that dynamic, completing just over 58% of his passes for 7.9 yards per pass attempt. He has posted an impressive 14:2 touchdown-to-interception ratio but again, I expect him to be under duress for much of tonight's game. Look for the Chips' to make a concerted effort to churn out long drives in this one and effectively shorten the game. Note that their two previous MAC road games have totaled just 45 and 57 points. Take the under (9*). |
|||||||
11-02-21 | Eastern Michigan v. Toledo UNDER 53.5 | Top | 52-49 | Loss | -113 | 31 h 36 m | Show |
MAC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Eastern Michigan and Toledo at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. Eastern Michigan enters this game off consecutive high-scoring 'over' results, scoring a whopping 86 points along the way. The Eagles should find the going much tougher on Tuesday, however, as they face one of the MAC's best defensive teams in Toledo. The Rockets have given up more than 26 points in a game only once this season and that came against nationally-ranked Notre Dame, on the road no less, back in Week 2. Offensively, the Rockets aren't the juggernaut we've become accustomed to seeing in Toledo. Their overall numbers are skewed by a couple of explosions against FCS squad Norfolk State way back in Week 1 and lowly UMass in the first week of October. The Rockets have completed 20 or more passes only twice this season - they've run the football 30+ times in six of eight games to date. They've also allowed more than 21 pass completions only once, that coming in the aforementioned game against Notre Dame. Last year's matchup between these two teams was high-scoring with Toledo winning by a 45-28 score. Keep in mind, that was a wild contest that included four turnovers by way of fumbles (and an interception as well). Of course we can't account for turnovers creating short fields here, but with a lot on the line between these two MAC squads, I'm expecting a lower-scoring game than most. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
11-02-21 | Ball State v. Akron UNDER 58.5 | 31-25 | Win | 100 | 30 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Ball State and Akron at 7 pm et on Tuesday. This is a big game for Ball State as it looks to bounce back from a disappointing home loss against Miami-Ohio and pick up a much-needed fourth victory of the season to keep its hopes of reaching a possible Bowl game alive. While it looks like a layup on paper, I don't expect Akron to simply roll over. The Zips are coming off a 45-10 beatdown at the hands of Buffalo, at home no less, after they had managed to split a two-game road trip, going a perfect 2-0 ATS along the way. While Akron is by no means a defensive stalwart, it's not as if teams have been bombing away against it. The Zips have allowed over 20 pass completions only twice this season. Yes, opponents have generally elected to run the ball down their throats but Ball State isn't an elite rushing team, averaging only 116 rush yards per game on 3.5 yards per rush this season with that number dropping to 3.3 ypr on the road. Of course, the Zips offense has been rather punchless as usual and this doesn't look like an ideal breakout spot against a Ball State squad that has allowed 22, 20, 31 and 24 points against much tougher opposition in conference play. Take the under (9*). |
|||||||
10-30-21 | Florida State v. Clemson OVER 47 | Top | 20-30 | Win | 100 | 50 h 46 m | Show |
ACC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Florida State and Clemson at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. I love the way this one sets up as a relatively high-scoring game between two teams that have largely been disappointments this season. Florida State has at least turned things around lately, reeling off three straight wins while scoring 33, 35 and 59 points. With that in mind, I think Clemson knows it will have to step up its offensive game and come out with an aggressive mindset on Saturday. The Tigers have certainly been bogged down, held to fewer than 20 points in each of their last three games and 21 points or less in all six of their games against FBS opponents this season. This is still a talented team and one that still has plenty to play for, especially when you consider each of its last five games are of the 'winnable' variety. This is an excellent get-right spot for the Clemson offense against what I consider a bad Florida State defense. Note that the Seminoles have allowed 30+ points in four of seven games this season. Two of their other three games came against the likes of FCS squad Jacksonville State and lowly UMass. Here, we'll play the 'over' noting that it has cashed at an impressive 32-9 clip over the last five seasons when set between 42.5 and 49 points with the road team having won two of its last three games ATS but sporting a losing record on the season, as is the case with Florida State. The 'over' has gone a stunning 19-2 in that situation over the last three seasons. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
10-23-21 | Wake Forest v. Army UNDER 53 | 70-56 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Wake Forest and Army at 12 noon et on Saturday. The bye week came at the right time for Wake Forest as it was very fortunate to remain undefeated in spite of awful defensive performances against Louisville and Syracuse in consecutive weeks heading in. This is a far stronger defense that it has shown as far as I'm concerned and now it gets a tough, albeit different test against Army's triple-option offense on Saturday. I expect the Demon Deacons defense to rise to the occasion. On the flip side, Army knows it needs to tighten things up after suffering consecutive losses - its first two defeats of the season - against Ball State and Wisconsin. The Black Knights defense certainly wasn't bad in either game - in fact, this is a unit that has gotten stronger as the season has gone on, but it knows it will need to be better against a dynamic Wake Forest offense on Saturday. Having scored 35+ points in each of its first six games this season, Wake Forest is certainly in line for some regression offensively and this would appear to be an ideal spot for that as this has the potential to be a slugfest. Take the under (9*). |
|||||||
10-20-21 | Coastal Carolina v. Appalachian State OVER 61.5 | 27-30 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Coastal Carolina and Appalachian State at 7:30 pm et on Wednesday. We won with Coastal Carolina in its most recent game while also cashing with the 'under' in Appalachian State's blowout loss against Louisiana-Lafayette last week. Here, I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'over' as the red hot Chanticleers stay on the road for a second straight game. Coastal Carolina was considered somewhat of a 'fluke' during a unique Covid-tinged 2020 season but there's no talk of that this year. The Chanticleers are the real deal. While their offense has been virtually unstoppable, their defense has also held up well. With that being said, few opposing offenses have offered much of a challenge. I do think we'll see CCU get a solid punch from Appalachian State here, however. The Mountaineers turned the football over four times in last week's 41-13 road loss against Lousiana-Lafayette. The hope is that they'll have standout RB Camerun Peoples back for this midweek affair, although even if he can't go, I still expect them to get well into the 20's at the very least. Defensively, Appalachian State is brimming with talent but that was the case last year as well. Despite holding the Chanticleers to 12-of-21 passing in that 2020 meeting, the Mountaineers still gave up 34 points. Meanwhile, they managed to score 23 points themselves despite three turnovers. In the last two games we saw Coastal Carolina put up 111 points and complete 43-of-51 passes for nearly 700 yards without barely breaking a sweat. The Chanticleers check in having run for over 200 yards in all six games this season. This is a team that's firing on all cylinders offensively with QB Grayson McCall one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the nation. I do think we see Appalachian State get enough offensive possessions to inflict some damage in this one - enough to help the final score up and 'over' the total. Last year's matchup featured a real defensive tone yet still got to 57 total points. Two years ago, these two teams combined to score a whopping 93 points. Expect this one to fall somewhere between those two numbers. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
10-16-21 | BYU v. Baylor UNDER 51.5 | Top | 24-38 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 39 m | Show |
CFB Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between BYU and Baylor at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. Baylor has had a couple of offensive explosions this season, including a 45-point outburst against West Virginia last Saturday (we won with the Bears in that game). However, while known for their offense, I believe the Bears strength lies on the defensive side of the football this season. Don't count on another boxscore-stuffing game from the Baylor offense here as it faces a good BYU defense coming off a tough 26-17 loss against Boise State last week. Credit the Cougars defense for holding up well in that game despite being dealt a tough hand with the offense turning the football over four times in the loss. With that in mind, we can anticipate a more conservative offensive approach from BYU here, especially considering the ball-hawking nature of the Bears defense (they've forced at least one turnover in all six games this season). Note that the Cougars have yet to top 22 pass completions in a game this season. They posted a season-high 37 pass attempts in last week's game against Boise, but that had everything to do with game script. I'm confident we'll see them rely heavily on the run as they try to effectively shorten this game as a substantial underdog in Waco. Baylor boasts a shutdown pass defense of sorts, allowing just 6.1 yards per pass attempt and no more than 24 pass completions in any of its six games this season. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
10-16-21 | Akron v. Miami-OH UNDER 51 | Top | 21-34 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 53 m | Show |
MAC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Akron and Miami-Ohio at 2:30 pm et on Saturday. Akron managed to score 35 points in last week's upset win over Bowling Green, on the road no less, but don't count on a similar story unfolding this week as the Zips head to Yager Stadium to take on the Redhawks of Miami-Ohio. It's worth noting that the Zips scored those 35 points thanks in large part to an awful Bowling Green squad turning over the football on five occasions. Last week actually marked the second time Akron managed to score 35 points this season but the other occurrence came against an FCS opponent, Bryant, back in mid-September. Outside of those two performances, the Zips have managed to score more than 17 points just once this season, that coming against an awful Temple defense in a blowout loss. Defensively, the Zips haven't been as bad as we've seen in recent years, particularly against the run. The longest rush they allowed in blowout losses against powerhouse opponents Auburn and Ohio State (both games were played on the road) went for 'just' 37 yards. It's not as if teams have been bombing away on them either. Only Ohio State managed to pass for more than 300 yards against the Zips and no opponent has topped 22 pass completions (I realize game script has had a lot to do with that as most of Akron's opponents have been nursing big leads). My point is, Akron does boast a better, more experienced defense than we've been accustomed to seeing in recent years and there's reason to believe it can at least keep a struggling Redhawks offense in check on Saturday. Miami-Ohio has topped out at 28 points in a game this season as it continues to have a tough time finding any sort of continuity at the quarterback position, or explosiveness out of the backfield. Here, I don't think the Redhawks will pay too much attention to earning 'style points' - they simply want to avoid falling to 1-2 in MAC play before playing their next two games on the road. As usual, Miami-Ohio has a terrific defense. You can't put too much stock in the Redhawks defensive numbers so far this season as they opened with a tough three-game slate on the road against Cincinnati, Minnesota and Army. Since opening MAC play they've held their two opponents to just 103 rushing yards on 60 attempts and 50-of-80 passing, allowing a grand total of only 30 points. Note that the 'under' checks in 17-3 the last 20 times the Redhawks have come off an upset loss as a favorite, leading to an average total of just 40.6 points scored in that situation. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 16-4 the last 20 times Akron has allowed 475 total yards per game over its last three contests, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
10-16-21 | Duke v. Virginia OVER 69.5 | 0-48 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Duke and Virginia at 12:30 pm et on Saturday. The fact that the 'under' has cashed in Duke's last two games and each of Virginia's last three contests is the only thing keeping this number even reasonably in check on Saturday. I realize we're working with a lofty total still, but I do think it could be even higher. Duke's defense lacks the talent and experience to slow anyone down. Sure, the Blue Devils held FCS squad North Carolina A&T and a punchless Northwestern offense down earlier in the season but since then they've been flamed for 33, 38 and 31 points in games against Kansas, North Carolina and Georgia Tech. Things certainly don't get any easier against a Virginia offense that likes to bomb away, having attempted 40+ passes in five straight games and 57 or more in three of its last four contests. Back to Duke, its offense looks poised for a breakout here with QB Gunnar Holmberg settling in and throwing for touchdown passes in four straight games, topping the 290-yard mark three times over that stretch. He remains a threat to run as well, noting that he scored four rushing touchdowns in a game against Kansas back in late September. We've also seen RB Mataeo Durant emerge as a home run threat out of the backfield, running for over 100 yards in five of six games and north of 150 yards on two occasions this season. Virginia can't help but get involved in shootouts on a weekly basis as it allows 5.2 yards per rush and 8.1 yards per pass attempt. Were it not for nine turnovers in its last five games, Virginia's offense would have posted monster numbers this season. As it is, the Cavaliers are still stuffing the boxscore, racking up over 400 passing yards in four of their last five games. Note that the Blue Devils haven't had a lick of success against the pass this season, allowing 431 pass yards per game on a whopping 8.8 yards per pass attempt. Take the over (9*). |
|||||||
10-14-21 | Navy v. Memphis OVER 55 | Top | 17-35 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 43 m | Show |
AAC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Navy and Memphis at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. While some will look at this matchup and see a high posted total given Navy's reputation for running the football and eating clock in the process, I believe the number will prove too low. I simply feel this game has big-play potential from start to finish and projects as precisely the shootout the oddsmakers are expecting. Of course, last year's matchup between the Midshipmen and Tigers fizzed, ending with just 17 total points despite the total being set in the mid-60's. I expect a different story to unfold here. Navy has had a miserable time trying to stop opposing offenses, whether it's on the ground or through the air. The Middies check into this one allowing 8.3 yards per pass and 5.7 yards per rush. Their depth on defense has been seriously tested as they lost two of their five best defenders earlier in the season, Tama Tuitele (transfer portal) and Mitchell West (season-ending knee injury). While they haven't been truly boat-raced since their season-opening 49-7 rout at the hands of Marshall, they have allowed at least 28 points in each of their last three games. Two weeks ago against a comparable offense to the one they'll face on Thursday, they gave up three touchdown drives in the game's first 29 minutes against Central Florida. Memphis poses a stiff challenge with an offense that has been highly-consistent and explosive at times this season. QB Seth Henigan isn't afraid to bomb away and he should find plenty of success throwing on an average Navy secondary. Henigan has attempted 97 passes in the Tigers last two games, throwing for nearly 800 yards, five touchdowns and two interceptions. He also has some mobility and should give the Middies plenty of headaches on Thursday night. The fact that Asa Martin, a key transfer at running back, has only had 14 carries for the Tigers this season is telling. The Memphis backfield is brimming with talent and with a steady rotation should be able to stay fresh and excel against an undersized Navy defensive front. On the flip side, few teams have stuck with the run against Memphis this season but we know the Midshipmen will with their triple-option attack. Navy hogged the time of possession last year, churning out well over 200 rush yards on north of 50 attempts against the Tigers last season. Here, I look for Navy to hit a few more home runs and perhaps not put together as many of those long, clock-churning drives. We saw some leaks in the Memphis run defense last week as it was torched for 235 yards on 44 attempts - good for well over 5.0 yards per rush - and three touchdowns against Tulsa. Playing on a short week here, I don't expect there to be any quick fixes. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
10-12-21 | Appalachian State v. UL-Lafayette UNDER 55.5 | Top | 13-41 | Win | 100 | 34 h 16 m | Show |
Sun Belt Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Appalachian State and Louisiana-Lafayette at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. While both of these offenses are ultra-talented and capable of putting points on the board in a hurry, they'll both be facing their toughest defensive opponent to date on Tuesday night. Last year's matchup between these two teams produced just 45 points as the Ragin' Cajuns pulled off an outright upset away from home. In what should be a similarly tightly-contested affair, I expect points to come at a premium. Both squads are loaded with talent and experience on the defensive side of the football. In fact, the majority of the defenders that starred in last year's matchup that featured just 18 completed passes between the two teams are back in the fold here in 2021. It's also notable that both teams have somehow avoided the injury bug (for the most part) through the first month and a half of the season. Louisiana recently welcomed back star LB Ferrod Gardner and he's chipped in 11 tackles and generally wreaked havoc in two games. Appalachian State is strong from the back-end in (by that I mean their secondary is their strength) and that's what we want to see when backing a college football 'under'. Ragin' Cajuns QB Levi Lewis is an experienced leader of the offense but he's often relegated to 'game manager' role in tough matchups such as this one. Note that he's completed more than 19 passes just twice in five games this season, with one of those efforts coming as the Cajuns played in catch-up mode in a season-opening blowout loss on the road against Texas. Save for a 49-point explosion against a down-trodden Ohio squad, the Ragin' Cajuns have generally been held in check on offense, topping out at 28 points in their other four games. Appalachian State busted out for 45 points last time out but that performance came against a Georgia State squad that earlier in the season allowed 102 points in consecutive games against Army and North Carolina. In their toughest previous defensive test this season, the Mountaineers scored just 23 points in a two-point loss at Miami. Of course, it's not as if the Canes are a defensive powerhouse this season. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
10-09-21 | Wake Forest v. Syracuse UNDER 59 | Top | 40-37 | Loss | -113 | 26 h 51 m | Show |
ACC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Wake Forest and Syracuse at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. We missed with the 'under' in Wake Forest's wild 37-34 win over Louisville but it's certainly worth noting that were it not for an unthinkable defensive breakdown from the Demon Deacons that allowed a 70+ yard touchdown completion in the final minutes, we likely would have cashed that ticket. It was not a good game as a whole for the Wake defense but I do see this as a fine bounce-back spot against an inconsistent Syracuse offense on Saturday. On the flip side of that, the Demon Deacons have now scored 35 points or more in five straight games. As good as their offense is, I don't believe that trend is sustainable. While the Orange are coming off a wild, high-scoring shootout of their own at Florida State last week, I don't believe that's their preferred type of game. Note that their two previous home games against FBS opposition totaled just 24 and 45 points against Rutgers and Liberty, respectively. I still have my doubts as to whether the Syracuse offense can match last week's production against a tougher opponent here, even with the benefit of playing at home. When these two teams met last Halloween we saw an almost identical posted total. Wake ended up winning that game in blowout fashion, 38-14, easily staying 'under' the total we're dealing with here. Syracuse will be looking to do a much better job of keeping its offense on the field and controlling the time of possession here after Wake dominated in that department in last year's meeting to the tune of a 36:14 to 23:46 edge. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
10-02-21 | Louisville v. Wake Forest UNDER 63 | 34-37 | Loss | -107 | 27 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Louisville and Wake Forest at 12:30 pm et on Saturday. We've seen a pair of high-scoring games between these two teams over the last two seasons with Louisville prevailing in both. I expect a different story to unfold on Saturday, however. It's worth noting that Wake Forest has put up 35 points or more in four straight games to open the season. I went back over the last decade and didn't find a single other occurrence where the Demon Deacons accomplished that feat at any time during a season. They came close last year, scoring 35+ points in three straight games. In their next contest they won a low-scoring battle against Virginia Tech by a 23-16 score. I really like the way Wake has been able to salt away victories in the fourth quarter this season. That comes with an effective offensive line and potent rushing attack. Last week against Virginia, Wake didn't allow a single score from five minutes remaining in the third quarter on. Two weeks ago, the Deacs' held the Seminoles off the scoreboard for the entire second half. Louisville isn't running the same 'boom or bust' offense we've become accustomed to seeing in recent years. The Cards are content to move up and down the field in small chunks with lots of slants and out-reads, with a healthy dose of their ground attack led by dual-threat QB Malik Cunningham mixed in. I suspect the Deacs' will be content to keep everything in front of them in this one - I really like their speed and athleticism on defense, particularly at the linebacker position and with that in mind, I'm confident they can contain Cunningham for much of the afternoon on Saturday. The Cards would be wise to employ a similar gameplan to what we saw back in Week 1 against high-powered Ole Miss. That means playing 'keep away' while also limiting the type of plays that could allow the turnover-happy Wake defense to feast. The lofty total makes sense given how high-scoring the last two matchups between these two teams have been (I take last year's Louisville blowout win with a grain of salt as it came in the final week of the season after Wake Forest dealt with four cancellations due to Covid protocols), I simply feel it will prove too high in an ACC showdown with a lot at stake. Take the under (8*). |
|||||||
10-01-21 | Iowa v. Maryland UNDER 46 | Top | 51-14 | Loss | -105 | 103 h 17 m | Show |
Big Ten Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Iowa and Maryland at 8 pm et on Friday. The 'under' is now a perfect 4-0 in games involving Iowa this season after last Saturday's closer than expected 24-14 win over Colorado State. The fact that the Hawkeyes trailed that game 14-7 at halftime may be concerning at first glance. However, a closer look shows that Iowa actually shut Colorado State out in the first, third and fourth quarters in that game. A 22-yard punt from the Hawkeyes deep in their own territory set up the Rams first touchdown drive - a drive they needed nine plays to turn into a touchdown despite starting from the Iowa 35-yard line. The Hawkeyes next offensive drive ended with an interception that the Rams returned all the way to the Iowa 23-yard line. Colorado State made good with a touchdown on that drive as well but that was it in terms of Rams scoring offense for the remainder of the game. You could argue that this will be Iowa's toughest test to date, although it did already go on the road and defeat rival Iowa State (which was ranked ninth in the country at the time) by a 27-17 score back on September 11th (we won with the 'under' in that game). That game reached 44 total points but did include a defensive fumble return for a touchdown. We've backed Maryland in each of the last two weeks, managing to split those plays thanks to last Saturday's rout of Kent State. The Terps offensive stats are somewhat skewed from playing FCS squad Howard (won 62-0) and Kent State and its 'FlashFast' offense that essentially served to give Maryland a number of extra possessions. While I do think the Terps can move the football against this tough Iowa defense, I'm not convinced they can end many drives with 7's on the board. Remember, back in Week 1 Maryland faced a tough home game against West Virginia and while it did put up 30 points, two touchdowns went for 60+ yards thanks to Mountaineers defensive breakdowns - something we're unlikely to see from the fundamentally-sound Hawkeyes defense here. On the flip side, the Terps can play some defense, noting that they've allowed just four touchdowns in their last 15 quarters of action, with one of those coming on a broken play offensive fumble return for a touchdown on the road against Illinois two weeks ago. Iowa has topped out at 34 points this season, and that performance came in a game in which they returned two interceptions for touchdowns against Indiana. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
09-30-21 | Virginia v. Miami-FL UNDER 62 | 30-28 | Win | 100 | 80 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Virginia and Miami at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'under' in Virginia's blowout loss to Wake Forest last Friday night but were admittedly fortunate to do so as the Cavaliers offered very little defensive resistance in a 37-17 loss. After getting dummied by the North Carolina and Wake Forest offenses over the last two weeks, I do look for a response from the Cavaliers here. As I've noted before this season, Virginia does boast plenty of talent and experience on the defensive side of the football, particularly at the back-end. It was the Cavaliers run defense that got gashed last Friday and I believe that had something to do with the Demon Deacons catching them off guard with a more run-heavy approach. Here, Virginia will catch a Miami team that is coming off a 69-point explosion but that came against FCS squad Central Connecticut State. The Hurricanes are in a bit of a state of flux right now with questions around whether QB D'Eriq King may have lost his starting job. King has been a general disappointment since joining the Canes last season and with freshman Tyler Van Dyke coming in and throwing for 270 yards and three touchdowns (and no interceptions) last Saturday, there's a good chance we'll see Van Dyke again here. Regardless who takes the majority of the snaps, I like the 'under'. Keep in mind, Van Dyke is still learning the offense and now will have to prepare on a short week. Virginia opened the season scoring 43, 42 and 39 points in its first three games. That had more to do with the level of opposition they faced (and game script in a wild, high-scoring affair against North Carolina) than anything else. This will be the Cavaliers toughest defensive test to date as they head on the road to take on a Canes defense that is better than it showed in early season losses to Alabama and Michigan State. While they did allow 38 points against Michigan State in their last relevant game, the Canes actually didn't give up a touchdown until the final three minutes of the first half in that one. It wasn't until late in the fourth quarter that things really unraveled as Spartans standout RB Kenneth Walker wore them down with over 170 yards on the ground. The Cavaliers aren't likely to pose the same type of challenge here. Note that last week against a beatable Wake Forest defense, Virginia didn't find the end zone until nearly three minutes into the third quarter. It wasn't able to lean much on its ground attack after falling behind early. I certainly don't think the Cavaliers want QB Brennan Armstrong throwing the football 59 times again in this one. The hope is that they'll have RB Wayne Taulapapa back from a concussion for this game, which would help them grind out longer, clock-churning drives in an effort to keep their overworked defense off the field and effectively shorten this game. Note that the 'under' is 36-16 with Miami having lost three of its last four games ATS, with those contests totaling an average of just 46.3 points. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 26-13 with Virginia coming off consecutive games where it lost the turnover battle, as is the case here, with that spot producing an average total of just 46.1 points. There's reason to believe a more conservative gameplan could serve the Cavaliers well as they try to win for the first time in three weeks. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
09-25-21 | Kentucky v. South Carolina UNDER 48.5 | Top | 16-10 | Win | 100 | 80 h 46 m | Show |
SEC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Kentucky and South Carolina at 7 pm et on Saturday. We've won countless plays on the 'under' in games involving the Kentucky Wildcats over the years. However, so far in 2021 we've seen Kentucky post a perfect 3-0 o/u record. I expect that to change on Saturday as the Wildcats hit the road for the first time this season, going up against a South Carolina Gamecocks squad that is licking its wounds after a 40-13 drubbing at the hands of Georgia last week. A couple of transfers have given the Kentucky offense a big boost so far this season, QB Will Levis and WR Wan'Dale Robinson. Let's keep things in perspective though. While the Wildcats have put up a whopping 108 points in three games - all victories - they've done so against the likes of Louisiana-Monroe, Missouri and Chattanooga, not exactly a who's who of elite defensive teams. Also keep in mind, last week against FCS squad Chattanooga, the Wildcats scored just three offensive touchdowns, with two of those coming in the game's first 29 minutes. From there, Kentucky found the end zone just once with that touchdown coming nearly five minutes into the fourth quarter. The only opponent that has had any considerable success against the Kentucky defense this season was Missouri and that was because it bombed away - 52 pass attempts to be exact, yet still managed under 300 yards through the air. South Carolina isn't built that way with QBs Zeb Noland and Luke Doty both struggling. Both of these teams might be well-suited to scaling back the offense a bit here given the Wildcats have turned the football over eight times while the Gamecocks have coughed it up seven times. Both defenses have the ability to get into the backfield which makes it more difficult for the quarterbacks, all more or less pocket-passers, to have time to get the football more than 10-15 yards down the field. Two weeks ago South Carolina traveled to East Carolina and didn't score an offensive touchdown until the final minute of the third quarter. That was the Gamecocks only offensive TD of the entire game in a narrow 20-17 victory. In fact, in their last 10 quarters of football they've managed to score just three offensive touchdowns. The last time these two teams met on this field they combined to score just 31 points back in 2019. We're obviously talking about two different teams now, but I'm expecting another relatively low-scoring affair. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
09-25-21 | Texas Tech v. Texas UNDER 61.5 | Top | 35-70 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 17 m | Show |
Big 12 Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Texas Tech and Texas at 12 noon et on Saturday. We saw a wild, high-scoring (that's an understatement) shootout between these in-state rivals last season as Texas prevailed by a 63-56 score almost a year ago to the day. I'm expecting a different story to unfold this time around, however. Texas Tech routed Florida International by a 54-21 score last week. It's worth noting that the Red Raiders were forced to punt on each of their first two drives in that game and actually trailed 7-0 before a pick-six with less than four minutes remaining in the first quarter. It wasn't until nearly three minutes into the second quarter that they scored their first offensive touchdown of the game. From there, FIU fell apart, as is often the case for big non-conference underdogs, and Texas Tech padded its offensive stats. Keep in mind, prior to that game, the Red Raiders had scored just 66 points combined in their first two games this season. That's nothing to sneeze at, but I'm not entirely convinced this is an elite offensive football team. The key here is that Texas got the perfect tune-up in a shutout performance against Rice last week. This is an experienced Longhorns defense, particularly in the secondary which is obviously an area that is of critical importance against the Red Raiders. Note that Texas enters the week ranked 87th in the country in pass yards allowed per game this season. Most will point to the Longhorns ugly 40-21 loss against Arkansas. Texas actually allowed just one touchdown in the first 36 minutes of that game. It was only when they were forced to play from behind 13-0 in the second half that they abandoned the run and their offense couldn't stay on the field, allowing the Hogs to run it up. Texas Tech is obviously known for its offense, but it has held up well defensively so far this season, and obviously won't have to deal with QB Sam Ehlinger for the Longhorns this time around. The Red Raiders already faced a tough road test against Houston (2-1) back in Week 1 on the fast track at NRG Stadium. They got off to a rough start in that game, allowing two first quarter touchdowns, but from there they gave up just one score the rest of the way, pitching a shutout in the second half. That was against a Cougars squad that proceeded to put up 89 points on over 800 yards of total offense over the next two games. Note that Texas Tech returns 11 of its top 13 tacklers from last season and checks in as one of the healthiest teams in the nation entering Week 4. The Red Raiders boast plenty of size and talent up front to help contain the Longhorns ground attack, while the secondary boasts a trio of 'super seniors' as a result of the unique Covid rules regarding player eligibility. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
09-24-21 | Wake Forest v. Virginia UNDER 67 | Top | 37-17 | Win | 100 | 83 h 36 m | Show |
ACC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Wake Forest and Virginia at 7 pm et on Friday. We're dealing with a very high total in this game, perhaps rightfully so given Virginia is coming off a wild game that featured a whopping 98 points against North Carolina last Saturday night. Let's keep that result in perspective, however. Wake Forest is not North Carolina. The Tar Heels have been in a foul mood ever since opening the season with a stunningly-poor offensive showing in a loss to Virginia Tech - and they have the talent to back it up led by future NFL quarterback Sam Howell. While Wake Forest has scored 42, 41 and 35 points in starting the season 3-0, the first two games came against the likes of Old Dominion and FCS squad Norfolk State and last week's 35-point performance against Florida State was aided by a number of Seminoles miscues. The Demon Deacons orchestrated four touchdown drives against the 'Noles but two of those were kept alive by FSU penalties. I've been encouraged by the Wake Forest defense through three games, noting that in their first two contests they allowed just three touchdowns, with two of those coming when those games were long decided late in the fourth quarter. They gave up two first half scores against Florida State last week but then shut the 'Noles out over the game's final 33 minutes. Virginia has lit up the scoreboard through three games but again, the level of competition is worth noting as its first two games were against FCS squad William & Mary and a rebuilding Illinois team. After falling by a 59-39 score last Saturday in Chapel Hill, I'm not sure the Cavaliers are all that interested in another track meet here. They've done a nice job of controlling proceedings defensively in their two home games this season, allowing just two touchdowns with both of those coming in a game that wasn't competitive against Illinois (we won with Virginia in that contest). Here, they should benefit from facing a Demon Deacons offense that has been a little more one-dimensional this season with QB Sam Hartman shouldering much of the load. RB Christian Beal-Smith is a capable back, but not really a home run hitter out of the backfield like we've seen in recent years from the Deacs'. This matchup produced 63 total points last year as Wake Forest rolled to a 43-20 victory. I look for both offenses to find success moving the football in this one but with enough of those drives stalling, or resulting in 3's rather than 7's to help keep the final score 'under' the lofty total. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
09-23-21 | Marshall v. Appalachian State UNDER 58.5 | 30-31 | Loss | -110 | 60 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Marshall and Appalachian State at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams are coming off high-scoring performances last week, albeit in very different circumstances. Marshall put up 38 points but inexplicably coughed up a fourth quarter lead in a 42-38 loss to East Carolina. Meanwhile, Appalachian State rolled to a 44-10 rout of FCS squad Elon. Here, I'm anticipating a lower-scoring contest as the Thundering Herd and Mountaineers do battle in a rematch of last year's 17-7 Marshall victory. Marshall benefited from a number of East Carolina defensive breakdowns last week, something they're not likely to see against an absolutely loaded Appalachian State defense that is strong from the back-end in. While it was up against an inferior opponents in Elon, Appalachian State didn't allow a touchdown until the final minute of the third quarter in last Saturday's game - when proceedings were already well in hand up 27-3. More impressively, two weeks ago the Mountaineers gave up a touchdown midway through the first quarter on the road against Miami, but then held the Hurricanes out of the end zone until early in the third quarter and then didn't give up another touchdown the rest of the game. How about against aforementioned East Carolina? Back in Week 1, Appalachian State allowed a touchdown five minutes into the game but not another until the score was 33-12 with just over two minutes remaining in the fourth quarter. You get my point. With revenge on their minds, you can be sure the Mountaineers will be eager to erase the memory of last year's 17-7 loss to Marshall and once again keep the Thundering Herd offense under wraps. On the flip side, I don't believe Marshall is as bad defensively as it showed in last week's loss to ECU. As I've noted on more than one occasion on Twitter this fall, the Pirates are a team well-suited to playing from behind with a risk-taking QB in Holton Ahlers and a receiving corps that can stretch the field. The Thundering Herd got caught flat-footed in the fourth quarter of that game - plain and simple. Prior to that loss, Marshall had given up just two touchdowns through its first two games, with both of those coming in lopsided affairs. Like Appalachian State, Marshall is loaded on the defensive side of the football. The quick turnaround here affords it the opportunity to quickly erase the memory of that blown opportunity against ECU. The Mountaineers, while talented on offense, haven't proven to be all that explosive. Note that even against Elon last week, they took nearly 10 minutes to score their first points of the game. After that they didn't reach the end zone again until nearly seven minutes into the third quarter. Two weeks ago against Miami they scored a touchdown around 10 minutes into the game but then didn't produce another offensive touchdown (they did have a second quarter kick return touchdown) until less than six minutes were left in the fourth quarter. It's not as if they were up against an elite Miami defense either. Despite that, I'm confident we'll see Marshall make an effort to grind out long, clock-churning drives in an effort to shorten this game, noting that it has committed a whopping three turnovers in all three games so far this season. Against an opportunistic Appalachian State defense it can ill afford to cough the ball up and give the Mountaineers offense any free drives (or short field position). Last Thursday night we saw a wild, high-scoring affair between Ohio and Louisiana-Lafayette (we won with the Ragin' Cajuns in that game) but I expect a much different story to unfold here. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
09-18-21 | Coastal Carolina v. Buffalo UNDER 58 | 28-25 | Win | 100 | 27 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Coastal Carolina and Buffalo at 12 noon et on Saturday. Coastal Carolina is off to a roaring start to the season, having scored a whopping 101 points through two games - both victories. We won with the Chanticleers in last week's 49-22 rout of Kansas. I don't think they're going to put up 40+ points every week, however, and expect Buffalo to offer some resistance here. The Bulls are coming off a 28-3 drubbing on the road against Nebraska last week. They suffered three inexplicable defensive breakdowns, allowing a trio of long Huskers touchdowns in that contest while Nebraska's other TD came thanks to an interception that set it up at the Buffalo one-yard line. With all of that in mind, I expect a fairly conservative offensive gameplan from the Bulls here as they look to effectively shorten the game by leaning on standout RB Kevin Marks to help orchestrate long, clock-churning drives on offense. As for Coastal Carolina, it got caught being a little too aggressive on defense and allowed a pair of long touchdown runs to Kansas QB Jake Bean last week. It won't have to deal with a dual threat quarterback in Buffalo's Kyle VanTrease this week. He has run the ball just twice through two games. VanTrease is more of a game manager than anything else - the Bulls certainly don't want him attempting 50 passes again like he did last week (that had to do with the fact that the Bulls were down big in the second half). Note that one of Buffalo's top receivers, Jovany Ruiz, has been ruled out for this game. He had caught seven passes for over 100 yards and a touchdown this season before leaving last week's game with an undisclosed injury. Take the under (8*). |
|||||||
09-18-21 | Cincinnati v. Indiana UNDER 50 | Top | 38-24 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 17 m | Show |
CFB First Half Total of the Year. My selection is on the first half 'under' between Cincinnati and Indiana at 12 noon et on Saturday. Both of these teams are coming off blowout victories over FCS squads last week with Cincinnati putting up 42 points in a rout of Murray State and Indiana scoring a whopping 56 points in a dismantling of Idaho. Here, I'm expecting a much more tempered offensive start given there's so much on the line for both teams. Cincinnati entered the season with CFP aspirations and it's all still in front of it off to a perfect 2-0 start, albeit against inferior competition. Meanwhile, Indiana opened with a blowout road loss against Iowa and needs to make a statement here as its only other non-conference matchup comes against Western Kentucky next week. This will obviously be Cincinnati's first time playing in front of a packed house on the road in quite some time. I fully expect the focus early on to be on taking care of the football and perhaps sucking some of the life out of what is sure to be a raucous Memorial Stadium. The Bearcats have the offense to do that with NFL QB prospect Desmond Ridder and Alabama transfer RB Jerome Ford, not to mention a wealth of talent at the wide receiver and tight end positions. They will be facing their toughest test of the season, however, as Indiana has built a very capable defense and one that is expected to get back one of its key cogs, CB Jaylin Williams from injury. While the Hoosiers did allow 34 points in their opener against Iowa, the defense wasn't to blame as the Hawkeyes had two pick-sixes in the first half. There was an early defensive breakdown on a long touchdown run early on but form there, the Hoosiers allowed just one more touchdown the rest of the game and that only came thanks to the Hawkeyes being given a short field and proceeding to (barely) convert a fourth down early in the second quarter. On the flip side, the question remains whether Hoosiers QB Michael Penix Jr. is healthy after last year's devastating season-ending injury. Even in last week's 56-14 rout, Penix completed just 11-of-16 passes for 68 yards (he did throw two touchdowns). He ran for a touchdown as well but actually lost 13 yards on four rush attempts in the game. Indiana will be facing an extremely difficult challenge in this one as the Bearcats defense is absolutely loaded and I believe job number one will be taking care of the football after that disastrous affair in Iowa two weeks ago. Expect a heavy dose of the Hoosiers ground game early on as they look to play keep away and control proceedings from the jump. Take the first half under (10*). |
|||||||
09-11-21 | Utah v. BYU UNDER 49.5 | 17-26 | Win | 100 | 15 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Utah and BYU at 10:15 pm et on Saturday. This has generally been a low-scoring series with six of the last nine meetings between these two in-state rivals totaling 45 points or less. While I'm not expecting a true defensive slugfest on Saturday night in Provo, I do think this one will stay 'under' the total. Utah put up 40 points in last week's win over FCS squad Weber State. Once the Utes offense got rolling, the Wildcats simply had no answers in that contest. While BYU is expected to take a step back defensively after a tremendous 2020 campaign, it certainly held up ok in its season-opener last week, not allowing Arizona to reach the end zone until the final two minutes of the third quarter. The Cougars secondary is thought to be a weakness but I believe that can be negated by an improved pass rush, which recorded four sacks in last week's victory. Also note that the return of strong safety Chaz Ah-You is key after he missed last season. He was extremely active in last week's contest, seemingly playing all over the field and helping to slow the Arizona offense. I'm not sure how much success the Cougars offense can have against a Utes defense that is loaded from the secondary in. Note that BYU QB Jaren Hall threw for just 198 yards in last week's victory with 67 of those yards coming in a single play. Hall has some mobility and ran for 36 yards in the opener. Keep in mind, he racked up 39 yards on a single run. The Utes are terrific at the linebacker position and should be able to keep Hall from breaking off too many big runs. I do think BYU's offense can go on some long, clock-churning drives in this one, which certainly helps our cause. I simply question how many of those drives will end with 7's on the board. Note that standout BYU WR Gunner Romney is currently listed as doubtful for this game after suffering an injury last week. His ability to stretch the field would certainly be missed if he can't go, although I'm actually making this play under the assumption that he does play as there have been whispers of that throughout the week. Take the under (9*). |
|||||||
09-11-21 | Iowa v. Iowa State UNDER 46.5 | Top | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 28 h 25 m | Show |
CFB Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Iowa and Iowa State at 4:30 pm et on Saturday. We won with the 'under' in Iowa's season-opener against Indiana last week and were extremely fortunate to do so as the Hawkeyes built a big lead and essentially 'parked the bus' in the second half. Here, I'm expecting both sides to contribute to keeping this one 'under' the total, noting that this rivalry series has generally been low-scoring with last year's matchup producing just 35 total points. Iowa set the tone early against Indiana last week, with RB Tyler Goodson breaking off a 56-yard touchdown run less than two minutes into the game. From there, Indiana had to take a lot more chances than it would have liked and ultimately threw a pair of pick-sixes in the first half. All told, the Hawkeyes allowed just one big play in the entire game - that being a 33-yard catch from standout Hoosiers WR Ty Fryfogle. With Iowa's ball-hawking (no pun intended) tendencies, I think we'll see Iowa State go a little more conservative on offense, noting that the Cyclones are coming off a very low-scoring 16-10 victory over FCS squad Northern Iowa last week. In that game, Iowa State scored a touchdown halfway through the second quarter but was then held out of the end zone the rest of the way. The Cyclones were efficient in the passing game but QB Brock Purdy only attempted 26 passes. Meanwhile, they ran the ball 34 times. On the flip side of that, Iowa State effectively had just one defensive breakdown in the entire game against NIU, that coming on a first quarter 52-yard catch and run that resulted in a touchdown. I do think Iowa State can find success against the rival Hawkeyes by grinding out long, clock-churning drives and essentially shortening this game. Of course, the same can be said for Iowa. Note that Hawkeyes QB Spencer Petras actually completed just 13-of-27 passes for only 145 yards in last week's 34-point performance. With both teams returning plenty of talent from last season and a win or a loss meaning so much, even at this early stage of the season with these two teams sitting in the top-25 rankings, I'm anticipating a tightly-contested, low-scoring affair on Saturday afternoon. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
09-11-21 | Tulsa v. Oklahoma State UNDER 51.5 | 23-28 | Win | 100 | 25 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Tulsa and Oklahoma State at 12 noon et on Saturday. This matchup produced a very low-scoring result last year with Oklahoma State prevailing by a 16-7 score. That was a surprising outcome. A relatively low-scoring contest here shouldn't be. Tulsa dropped a 19-17 decision against Cal-Davis in its season-opener last week. In that game, the Golden Hurricane didn't manage to find the end zone until the final five minutes of the first half and that was a clock-churning 12-play drive that included a successful fourth down conversion. From there, Tulsa didn't score another touchdown until the latter half of the third quarter. On a positive note, the Golden Hurricane allowed an early touchdown inside the game's first four minutes but then didn't give up another touchdown the rest of the way. That's not surprising as the Tulsa defense was outstanding last season and gets nine starters back from that unit. This will obviously be a tougher test against Oklahoma State but certainly not an insurmountable one. The Cowboys weren't great on offense in 2020 and have to replace a number of key contributors. Oklahoma State was involved in a low-scoring win against an FCS opponent in Missouri State last week. The Cowboys actually scored three early touchdowns in that contest - all coming inside the first five minutes of the second quarter. From there, they managed just a single field goal, indicating the potentially inconsistent nature of this offense. The defense was tremendous, however, not allowing a touchdown until the final four minutes of the fourth quarter, when they held a comfortable 23-9 lead. Oklahoma State is strong from the secondary in on the defensive side of the football. Seven starters return to the unit from a group that finished tops in the entire nation in third down stops a year ago. They'll give up enough yardage for Tulsa to orchestrate some clock-eating drives, but I don't expect a ton of big plays from the Golden Hurricane in this one. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
09-10-21 | UTEP v. Boise State OVER 56 | 13-54 | Win | 100 | 31 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between UTEP and Boise State at 9:30 pm et on Friday. I'm higher on UTEP than most but this is admittedly a tough matchup as the Miners head to Boise to take on a Broncos squad that will be in a foul mood after a blown opportunity in their opener at UCF. While the Miners have already lost RB Deion Hankins to injury, they may have found a star in the making in Ronald Awatt. Since taking over the starting role from Hankins he has ripped off 200 yards and two touchdowns on just 30 carries. With the fantastic WR tandem of Jacob Cowing and Justin Garrett, the Miners also have the potential to blow the top off Boise's secondary, which lost its two starting cornerbacks from last season. Keep in mind, we're talking about a Boise secondary that came up with only three interceptions all of last year. The problem for UTEP here will be trying to slow down an explosive Boise State offense that just hung 31 points on UCF. Like Boise, UTEP's defensive weakness is in the secondary where it doesn't boast much depth and managed to come up with only two picks all of last year. Both of those came from Duron Lowe, who is no longer with the team. This should be a 'name your score' type of affair for the Broncos and I look for them to go up-tempo in an effort to negate UTEP's solid pass rush. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
09-06-21 | Louisville v. Ole Miss OVER 75 | Top | 24-43 | Loss | -112 | 22 h 23 m | Show |
CFB Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Louisville and Ole Miss at 8 pm et on Monday. I don't know if everyone realizes just how high the ceiling is for this Ole Miss offense this season. Last year, the Rebels put up 48+ points on four different occasions (in only 10 games). Most of the key pieces from that offense are back in place and while head coach Lane Kiffin will miss Monday's game after testing positive for Covid-19, I don't expect the offense to miss a beat. Meanwhile, the Louisville offense should be along for the ride in this one, likely playing in comeback mode for much of the night. The Cardinals are well-suited to put points on the board as well with QB Malik Cunningham firmly entrenched as the starter - unlike last season. Louisville turned in a solid 2020 campaign offensively but there's still a lot of room for improvement. Cunningham needs to take better care of the football but I don't expect him to be any less aggressive. The Cardinals lose more talent on offense than the Rebels but there are still plenty of playmakers, more than enough to give the Rebels defense some problems in this one. On the fast track in Atlanta, there's a reason why we're dealing with such a high posted total. I'm not sure the oddsmakers can set the total high enough. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
09-05-21 | Grambling State v. Tennessee State UNDER 52.5 | 16-10 | Win | 115 | 6 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Grambling and Tennessee State at 4 pm et on Sunday. I'm not expecting a lot of offensive fireworks in this contest on Sunday. Tennessee State is beginning a new era with a completely new coaching staff led by Tennessee Titans legend Eddie George and offensive coordinator Hue Jackson. There are plenty of kinks to be worked out in what is expected to be a run-heavy offensive attack, however. In seven Spring games, the Tigers topped out at 26 points, scoring 20 points or less in five of those seven contests. Now they face a Grambling defense that was terrific in 2019 but failed to deliver in the Spring, allowing 30+ points in three of four games. Expect a better defensive performance from Grambling now that it has had a full Fall camp under its belt. Similar to Tennessee State, the Grambling offense couldn't get much going in the Spring, scoring a grand total of 66 points in four games. Also like TSU, Grambling will look to control the clock and generally look to run the ball first on offense. There's just not a ton of explosiveness in the Tigers passing game. This contest will certainly have more eyes on it than usual for an early season FCS clash as it's nationally-televised on NFL Network. Don't count on a whole lot of scoring. Take the under (8*). |
|||||||
09-04-21 | Indiana v. Iowa UNDER 45.5 | Top | 6-34 | Win | 100 | 80 h 43 m | Show |
Big Ten Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Indiana and Iowa at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. To put it simply, I expect the defenses to be ahead of the offenses in this Week 1 Big Ten showdown at Kinnick Stadium. With that being said, I'm not sure we'll see a whole lot of 'splash plays' resulting in turnovers or short fields from the defenses that would contribute to a higher-scoring game than expected. Indiana scored more than 30 points in four of its first five games last season before the offense sputtered down the stretch, putting up just north of 20 points per game over its final three contests culminating with a 26-20 loss against Ole Miss in the Outback Bowl. The upstart Hoosiers caught some opponents - namely Penn State and Michigan - flat-footed in the early stages of last year's unique season but I don't expect them to do the same against a well-coached Iowa squad here. Michael Penix Jr. is back under center for the Hoosiers after suffering another knee injury that required season-ending surgery last year. All indications are that he's good to go for the opener but I'm not sure the Hoosiers offensive gameplan will involve throwing him to the wolves in this difficult opening week road tilt. Indiana's ground attack hasn't impressed in recent years but I do think it will make a concerted effort to control the clock and pound away a little bit in this one. Indiana's defense struggled in pass coverage a year ago but gets back plenty of experience in the secondary and should hold up just fine against a Hawkeyes offense that isn't built to bomb away. The Hoosiers defense proved more than capable of stopping the run and getting into the backfield to harass opposing quarterbacks a year ago and most of the key pieces from that unit are back. Iowa's offense took a bit of a step forward last year thanks to ultra-efficient performance in the red zone. Can it repeat that level of production this year? I'm not so sure. QB Spencer Petras loses his top two wide receivers from a year ago to begin with. Keep in mind, the Hawkeyes aerial attack managed just nine touchdowns all of last season. There's reason to believe the Iowa ground game can continue to find success, even with Mekhi Sargent moving on to the NFL (and impressing in preseason action with the Titans). Tyler Goodson is a quality running back that seems like he's been around forever, but he's not exactly a true home run hitter out of the backfield. There will be times where the Hawkeyes offense plods along in this contest. Last year, Hawkeyes home games produced 41, 56, 46 and 35 total points. That was about par for the course for a team that has become accustomed to playing tight, relatively low-scoring affairs here at Kinnick Stadium over the years. There will be opportunities to sneak in 'over' plays in games involving Iowa this season as we're almost always afforded relatively low totals. I just don't believe this is such a spot. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
09-03-21 | North Carolina v. Virginia Tech UNDER 64.5 | 10-17 | Win | 100 | 101 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between North Carolina and Virginia Tech at 6 pm et on Friday. I believe the North Carolina defense has the chance to be good this season, really good. The headline-grabber is the loss of outstanding LB Chazz Surratt. However, virtually the entire starting defense outside of Surratt returns and I like the way the Tar Heels are built from the back in, with an outstanding secondary, a loaded linebacking corps and a solid defensive line that might give up some yards on the ground, but will put enough pressure on Virginia Tech QB Braxton Burmeister to make him uncomfortable for much of the night on Friday. The Hokies offense went as far as RB Khalil Herbert took them last year, as he ran for just under 1,200 yards - good for more than eight yards per rush. He's gone and now someone has to pick up the slack. Virginia Tech has a couple of excellent wide receivers in Tayvion Robinson and Tre Turner but will Burmeister have enough time in the pocket to find them downfield? That's a big question as the Hokies lost two of their best offensive linemen to transfers, not to mention Christian Darrisaw to the NFL. Expect to see Virginia Tech use its short to intermediate passing game to try to churn out long, clock-eating drives in this one in hopes of essentially shortening the game and keeping the ball out of the hands of the explosive North Carolina offense. The Tar Heels hung 56 points on the Hokies in last year's meeting. Needless to say, they'll have Virginia Tech's attention here in Week 1. The Hokies added Jordan Williams from Clemson and should at the very least be better defensively than they were at the tail-end of last season when they quite simply came unglued. They'll likely only be able to keep the Tar Heels offense at bay for so long, but that should be enough as we're dealing with a lofty total in the mid-60's at the time of writing. North Carolina's offense should be every bit as explosive as it was a year ago, even after losing a host of key performers to the NFL. It might just take a bit of time. Again, this total assumes the Tar Heels are going to come out in midseason form. Even if that is the case, it generally takes two to topple a total this high this early in the season. I believe it will prove too high. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
08-28-21 | UTEP v. New Mexico State UNDER 56.5 | 30-3 | Win | 100 | 465 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between UTEP and New Mexico State at 9:30 pm et on Saturday August 28th. I'm not anticipating a shootout as UTEP and New Mexico State look to start their 2021 campaigns on a positive note on opening night. The Miners offense struggled for the most part last season. It does bring plenty of continuity to the table here with virtually all of the same faces returning but an offensive explosion in the season-opener might be a little too much to ask. I do think we'll see UTEP find plenty of success putting together long, clock-churning drives as it matches up well against the New Mexico State defense. With that being said, priority one will be taking care of the football after finishing in the bottom-13 of the nation with over two turnovers per game last season. On the flip side, the Miners defensive front should be able to camp out in the Aggies backfield in this one. The strength of UTEP's defense certainly lies in its pass rush and while New Mexico State has brought in some help on the offensive line, it's going to take time to come together as a unit. Here, with two unproven (and turnover-prone in the case of junior Jonah Johnson) quarterbacks, I expect to see a relatively safe gameplan from the New Mexico State offense with perhaps a heavy dose of its 1-2 backfield tandem of Alex Escobar and O'Maury Samuels. As is often the case, we're dealing with a high early season total based largely on the potential of both offenses rather than what we're actually going to see on the field. This is actually a critical Week 1 affair for both teams as they hope to avoid setting a negative tone with a tough schedule ahead. Take the under (8*). |
|||||||
08-28-21 | Hawaii v. UCLA UNDER 70.5 | Top | 10-44 | Win | 100 | 218 h 21 m | Show |
CFB on ESPN TV Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Hawaii and UCLA at 3:30 pm et on Saturday August 28th. This is being pegged as a shootout. That's not surprising considering Hawaii is known for its high-flying offensive ways (even if that hasn't necessarily held true in recent years) and UCLA has plenty of returning talent under the guidance of offensive guru Chip Kelly. I believe the total will prove to be too high, however, as the two teams could surprise defensively. Hawaii returns last year's defense virtually intact. Expect defensive-minded head coach Todd Graham to treat this as an excellent 'measuring stick game' right out of the gates against a quality UCLA offense. The Rainbow Warriors boast speed all over the defensive backfield and should be able to do a good job of limiting big plays down the field in this one. They're also well-positioned to minimize UCLA's effectiveness on the ground with a substantial defensive line led by NT Blessman Ta'ala. LB Darius Muasau is by no means a household name but he's a stud linebacker that led the team in tackles a year ago, including 4.5 sacks and 9.5 tackles for loss. Offensively, I expect Hawaii QB Chevan Cordeiro to do enough running to help keep drives alive, moving the chains and ultimately shortening this game by keeping the clock moving. Cordeiro isn't going to wow anyone with his arm and I don't expect him to be put in too many high-risk situations against an opportunistic UCLA defense here. Instead, look for him to take what the Bruins give him and rely on steady RB Calvin Turner to pound away on early downs. The Bruins have to replace their leading rusher from a year ago but outside of that, their offense is loaded. I simply question whether we'll see them hit the ground running right out of the gates in this non-conference Week 0 affair. QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson has been dealing with an undisclosed injury but is expected to be good to go for the season-opener. The ceiling is sky-high for this offense but as I mentioned, Hawaii has a capable defense that could make life at least a little bit difficult here. Defensively, UCLA loses Osa Odighizuwa to the NFL but returns the bulk of the defense that finished last season sixth in the Pac-12 in total defense and second in scoring defense. This is a season-opening matchup it can handle but I do think the Bruins could end up on the field a little more than they would like should the Warriors pound away as I would expect them to. That only serves to help our cause with the potential for long, clock-churning drives. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
01-11-21 | Ohio State v. Alabama OVER 75 | 24-52 | Win | 100 | 23 h 0 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Ohio State and Alabama at 8 pm et on Monday. I'll keep it simple with this play. Alabama finished number one in the nation in points per play this season and it wasn't all that close. The Crimson Tide should score at will in this game - even against an elite Ohio State defense. The Tide simply have too much NFL level talent on offense to be slowed in this game. However, we're talking about a matchup with a single-digit pointspread, and I do believe Justin Fields and the Buckeyes offense can keep pace for much of this game. Ohio State checks in ninth in the country in points per play and should be able to make some headway against an Alabama defense that is always exceptional but certainly not invincible. We're dealing with a high total in this one but it's in the 70's for a reason. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
01-02-21 | Kentucky v. NC State UNDER 49.5 | 23-21 | Win | 100 | 14 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Kentucky and N.C. State at 12 noon et on Saturday. Kentucky scored 41 points in its most recent game - a 23-point rout of South Carolina. The Wildcats scored 30+ points on three different occasions but all three of those games came against non-Bowl teams. Here, the Wildcats will be in tough against an N.C. State defense that ranks 51st in the nation in points allowed per play and 42nd in sack percentage. Of course, Kentucky's calling card is its defense - that's been the case for a number of years. This is a manageable matchup for the Wildcats defense, noting that they rank 49th in the nation in points allowed per play. Both teams will give up their share of rush yardage but that should only end itself to long, clock-churning drives on Saturday afternoon. Note that Kentucky QB Terry Wilson threw more than a single touchdown in a game just once this season. N.C. State QB Bailey Hockman threw more than two touchdowns on two occasions but those performances came against two weak defenses in Florida State and Syracuse. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
12-30-20 | Wisconsin v. Wake Forest UNDER 52 | 42-28 | Loss | -114 | 15 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Wisconsin and Wake Forest at 12 noon et on Wednesday. I'm not sure how excited either of these teams are about playing in the Mayo Bowl on Wednesday afternoon. With that being said, I'm expecting a battle in the trenches of sorts as the Badgers line up against the Demon Deacons. Wisconsin of course owns one of the best defenses in the nation, ranking 12th in points per play allowed. The Badgers check in 16th in yards per rush allowed and 12th in yards per pass attempt given up. Wake Forest QB Sam Hartman suffered some regression this season, throwing more than two touchdown passes in a game just once - that performance coming in a wild 59-53 loss to North Carolina. He does do a nice job of taking care of the football, having thrown just one interception this season. I see this game playing out with the Demon Deacons finding some success moving the football against a tough Badgers defense but not finishing many drives with 7's on the board. Likewise, the Badgers should be able to find some running room against a weak Demon Deacons run defense but they certainly didn't show the ability during the regular season to score with any consistency and are particularly limited in their passing offense with QB Graham Mertz asked to be little more than a game manager, having completed more than 20 passes in a game only once. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
12-29-20 | Oklahoma State v. Miami-FL UNDER 61.5 | Top | 37-34 | Loss | -107 | 19 h 10 m | Show |
CFB Bowl Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Oklahoma State and Miami at 5:30 pm et on Tuesday. This game is being pegged as a potential offensive shootout. I'm not so sure that's how it will play out on the field, however. Oklahoma State was supposed to contend for a Big 12 Championship this season but a nagging ankle injury to RB Chuba Hubbard helped derail its hopes, and now Hubbard has opted-out of the Cheez-It Bowl to prepare for the NFL Draft. While the Cowboys offensive cupboard is by no means bare without Hubbard, I expect them to have their work cut out for them here. That's mainly because QB Spencer Sanders has failed to impress in his sophomore campaign. He threw more than a single touchdown pass just twice in eight games during the regular season and threw at least one interception in six of those contests. He's likely to be under duress for much of this game with Miami ranking a respectable 39th in the nation in sack percentage with that ranking rising to ninth over its last three games. Yes, the Canes have struggled against the run, which is the Cowboys strength, but here I'm not sure they'll respect Sanders enough to stray from stacking the box and forcing him to beat them through the air. On the flip side, the Miami offense showed flashes of brilliance with transfer QB D'Eriq King this season, but now face an underrated Oklahoma State defense that ranks ninth in the country in sack percentage and 22nd in yards allowed per pass attempt. Note that Miami RB Cam'Ron Harris ran for exactly 134 yards in each of his first two games this season but never reached those heights again, topping out at 96 rush yards over his last eight contests while being held to 63 rush yards or less in seven of those. It doesn't take many stalled drives to stay 'under' a lofty total such as this one. Both offenses are capable of moving the football but long, clock-churning drives can work in our favor in this case. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
12-24-20 | Hawaii v. Houston UNDER 60.5 | Top | 28-14 | Win | 100 | 21 h 7 m | Show |
CFB Bowl Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Hawaii and Houston at 3:30 pm et on Thursday. This one is being pegged as a potential shootout between the Rainbow Warriors and Cougars - after all, both programs are known for their high-octane offenses and what else would we want to see on Christmas Eve other than a wild, high-scoring affair? With that being said, I believe this lofty total will prove too high. Hawaii checks in ranked 88th in the nation in points per play, struggling against any defense with a pulse this season. While Houston could be undermanned due to ineligibility and opt-outs, it still possesses a defense that ranks an impressive eighth in the country in sack percentage. Meanwhile, the Warriors offense ranked a miserable 92nd in the nation in QB sacked percentage this season. It's certainly worth noting that the Cougars are expected to miss arguably their best offensive player in WR Marquez Stevenson, who has apparently elected to opt out to prepare for the NFL Draft. While the cupboard is by no means bare for the Cougars on offense, QB Clayton Tune can't be asked to do it all. Hawaii actually finished the season ranked a respectable 39th in the nation in yards allowed per pass attempt. I suspect we'll see plenty of long, clock-churning drives in this game, ultimately keeping it 'under' the lofty total. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
12-23-20 | Florida Atlantic v. Memphis UNDER 52 | 10-25 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Florida Atlantic and Memphis at 7 pm et on Wednesday. Memphis hasn't been the same offensive juggernaut we've become accustomed to seeing here in 2020, ranking 59th in the country in offensive touchdowns per game and 72nd in yards per play. Here, the Tigers will face a Florida Atlantic squad that checks in an impressive seventh in the nation in points per play allowed. There's little reason to expect a real offensive breakthrough from the Owls offense in this one. Their calling card has been controlling the football (and the clock) and leaving it up to their defense to take care of the rest. The Owls check in 109th and 110th respectively in points allowed per play and offensive touchdowns per game. On the flip side, only two teams have allowed fewer offensive touchdowns per game this season. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
12-23-20 | Georgia Southern v. Louisiana Tech UNDER 49 | 38-3 | Win | 100 | 18 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Georgia Southern and Louisiana Tech at 3 pm et on Wednesday. Bettors are generally quick to play the 'over' in most Bowl games and the New Orleans Bowl on the fast track at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome has been no exception over the years. With that being said, this has obviously been a unique season and here we have two teams that labored offensively through much of the campaign and are dealing with question marks all over the field. One thing we do know is that Georgia Southern will focus on running the football and eating clock - likely with its third-string quarterback. I'm not convinced many of the Eagles offensive drives will turn into 7's on the board, however, and Louisiana Tech's offense simply doesn't match up well with a Georgia Southern defense that ranks 33rd in the country in points allowed per play. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
12-19-20 | Oklahoma v. Iowa State UNDER 58.5 | Top | 27-21 | Win | 100 | 23 h 27 m | Show |
Big 12 Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Oklahoma and Iowa State at 12 noon et on Saturday. This isn't the first time we've played the 'under' in the Big 12 Championship Game. It seems that on an annual basis most bettors are comfortable backing the 'over' in this contest played on the fast track at AT&T Stadium. Note that only one of the last five Big 12 title games have totaled more than 58 points. Of course, Oklahoma is a perennial Big 12 title contender having appeared in this game in seven of the last eight years. I consider this year's Sooners squad to be a little different. I certainly don't put QB Spencer Rattler in the same category as the previous three players to QB the Sooners in this game, Jalen Hurts, Kyler Murray and Baker Mayfield. Note that Rattler has thrown for more than two touchdowns just once in his last five games. He topped out at 332 passing yards in those games, topping 300 yards only twice. Also note that he's been sacked seven times in the last two contests. Obviously the Sooners still boast a potent offense but they're running into a tough opponent in Iowa State here. The Cyclones have been a largely underrated commodity for much of this season and check in having allowed just 26 points over their last three games combined. Iowa State checks in 29th in the nation in points allowed per play. Meanwhile, Oklahoma has also been stout defensively, ranking 37th in the country in points allowed per play. While the Cyclones have had some breakout performances offensively, they're not what I would consider a juggernaut in that regard. QB Brock Purdy hasn't attempted more than 36 passes in a game since back on October 10th against Texas Tech. When these two teams met back on October 24th we saw a wild 37-30 game won by Iowa State. That game was actually fairly defensive until a late fourth quarter scoring flurry that saw three touchdowns in the game's final eight minutes. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
12-18-20 | UAB v. Marshall UNDER 42.5 | Top | 22-13 | Win | 100 | 57 h 11 m | Show |
CFB Conference Championship Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between UAB and Marshall at 7 pm et on Friday. This is certainly a low total by today's college football standards but much like our play on the 'under' in last Saturday's Wisconsin-Iowa matchup, I believe it is warranted. UAB shook off the rust after not playing for over a month due to Covid protocols, holding on for a 21-16 win but non-cover against Rice last week. The Blazers are expected to get some reinforcements on both sides of the ball this week with their entire team testing negative for Covid earlier this week. That means they'll have their tremendous stable of running backs back on the field. While that may help them extend their offensive drives in this game, it's certainly worth noting that Marshall has been extremely stingy against opposing running backs this season. In fact, the Thundering Herd rank tied for top spot in the nation in rush yards allowed per attempt (along with Georgia) at a measly 2.3. Only Cincinnati has allowed fewer points per play than Marshall this season. Of course, UAB can hold its own in that department as well with a loaded, experienced defense that ranks 21st in the nation in points per play allowed. The Blazers check in an impressive 16th in the country in yards allowed per game. I don't have a great deal of confidence in either starting quarterback in this matchup to be honest. I really think that both teams will enter this game with a focus on running the football, controlling the clock and letting their defenses take care of the rest. Expect Tyler Johnston and Grant Wells to assume dreaded 'game manager' roles with a Conference Championship on the line. There will be a few big plays, but I'm confident the game ultimately slides 'under' the total. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
12-12-20 | Wisconsin v. Iowa UNDER 42 | Top | 7-28 | Win | 100 | 28 h 9 m | Show |
CFB Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Wisconsin and Iowa at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. I'll back the 'under' in this Big Ten showdown on Saturday afternoon. This game pits a matchup of two of the nation's best defensive teams while at the same time two teams that boast inconsistent, ball control, clock-churning offensive attacks. Last year we saw 46 total points in this same matchup but that game also featured a 250+ yard rushing performance from current Indianapolis Colts RB Jonathan Taylor. Were it not for his success that game easily could have been far lower-scoring. Note that the Badgers and Hawkeyes have stayed true to character here in 2020, combining fierce defense with conservative offense and the formula has worked with varied success. The Badgers and Hawkeyes check in fourth and fifth respectively in terms of points allowed per play. No team allows fewer offensive touchdowns per game than Wisconsin and while Iowa checks in a less impressive 23rd in the nation in that category, we're talking about 127 qualifying teams. The Badgers ran up the score in their first two games against Illinois and Michigan this season but that had more to do with their opponent's defensive ineptitude than anything else. Note that they've yet to have a 100-yard rusher in a game this season while QB Graham Mertz has thrown for just 559 yards and three touchdowns over his last three games. Ball security needs to be a focal point this week as he has tossed four picks in the last two games. With that in mind, look for Mertz to be relegated to a true game manager role here. Iowa's offense has been a little more consistent but will face a tough challenge against the Badgers defense this week. We've seen the Hawkeyes feast on some weak Big Ten defenses this season but also struggle against the likes of Purdue, Northwestern and Nebraska - only one of which I would consider a truly elite defensive squad (Northwestern). QB Spencer Petras has thrown more than a single touchdown just once in seven games - that coming against a hapless Illinois defense last week. I suspect both teams will be content with turning this one into a slugfest. While we're dealing with a low posted total, it could be even lower in my opinion. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
12-12-20 | Utah v. Colorado UNDER 48 | 38-21 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Utah and Colorado at 12 noon et on Saturday. We've cashed a couple of 'under' tickets with Utah already this season and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Colorado has gotten off to a perfect 4-0 start to the season on the strength of a tremendous ground game. Last week RB Jarek Broussard ran for an incredible 301 yards on 25 carries. That was against Arizona, however. He'll face a much tougher challenge against a Utah defense that has been stout against the run, allowing just north of 104 rush yards per game. On the flip side, the Utes offense has looked disjointed through three games. Perhaps that was to be expected given all the practice time they missed due to Covid protocols, which prevented them from starting the season even close to on time. Utah did score 30 points in last week's victory over Oregon State but didn't actually find the end zone in that game until just over three minutes remained in the first half. That was against a below average Oregon State defense. The Utes will face a tougher defensive opponent here as Colorado has allowed just 23 points over its last two games. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
12-11-20 | Nevada v. San Jose State UNDER 59.5 | 20-30 | Win | 100 | 14 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Nevada and San Jose State at 10 pm et on Friday. This is obviously a big game with a spot in the Mountain West Championship on the line as Nevada makes the short trip to Las Vegas to face San Jose State, with the Spartans having been displaced from their home to play this game at Sam Boyd Stadium. The betting marketplace has yielded a high posted total for this one - clearly expecting plenty of offensive fireworks. I'm just not convinced that will be the case. Nevada is coming off a 37-26 win over Fresno State - the third time it has scored exactly 37 points in a game this season, matching its season-high. QB Carson Strong went off in that contest, throwing five touchdowns. Keep in mind he had topped out at three passing scores in his last five games. This is a good offensive team but perhaps a little one-dimensional. The Spartans don't boast an elite secondary but I do expect that unit to hold its own against a somewhat predictable Wolf Pack offense. San Jose State put up 35 points in last week's victory, but that came against Hawaii, noting that the Warriors were in a clear letdown spot off an upset win over Nevada. The Spartans ground attack ran wild in that contest with RB Tyler Nevens gaining 152 yards and scoring a trio of touchdowns. Note that Nevens had topped out at 45 rushing yards in a game previously this season. Likewise, Kairee Robinson ran for 111 yards after previously reaching a season-high of 40 rushing yards in a game. If you check out my free play on this game you'll see that I'm supporting Nevada, but I'm also calling for a lower-scoring affair than most expect. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
12-10-20 | Florida Atlantic v. Southern Miss UNDER 44 | Top | 31-45 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 57 m | Show |
C-USA Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Florida Atlantic and Southern Miss at 6:30 pm et on Thursday. I'll back the 'under' as FAU and Southern Miss close out their respective regular seasons on Thursday night. This is a major flat spot for the Owls as they suffered a deflating 20-3 loss to Georgia Southern - snapping their four-game winning streak - last time out. With Marshall's game getting canceled this week, the Owls now have virtually no shot at earning a spot in the C-USA Championship Game. For Southern Miss, this game brings a merciful end to what has been a highly disappointing 2020 campaign. It all started with a 32-21 loss to South Alabama and never really turned around from there. While there were some positive signs from the Eagles offense earlier in the season, those disappeared down the stretch with USM scoring just 33 points in its last three games against FBS opposition. Against a strong FAU defense, with nothing but pride to play for on Thursday night, I'm not expecting a sudden turnaround from the Eagles offense. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
12-05-20 | Nebraska v. Purdue OVER 62.5 | 37-27 | Win | 100 | 27 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Nebraska and Purdue at 12 noon et on Saturday. I expect plenty of offensive fireworks as the Huskers and Boilermakers do battle in early action on Saturday. We actually missed the mark with a big play on the 'over' in Nebraska's last game - a 26-20 loss to Iowa that certainly appeared to be headed way over the number before the scoring fizzled in the fourth quarter. This is obviously a different matchup for the Huskers as they face a bad Boilers defense that doesn't get after the quarterback. Expect the Huskers QB duo of Martinez and McCaffrey to have a field day hooking up with WR Wan'Dale Robinson. On the flip side, the Boilers should enjoy plenty of offensive success as well. All WR Rondale Moore has done since returning to the field two games ago is haul in 22 catches for nearly 200 yards while also adding 25 yards and a score on the ground. QB Jack Plummer has done a nice job since taking over for an injured Aidan O'Connell. The Huskers held up reasonably well against an average Iowa offense last Friday but I look for them to struggle to keep Purdue out of the end zone on Saturday. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
12-03-20 | Air Force v. Utah State OVER 51 | Top | 35-7 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 47 m | Show |
Mountain West Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Air Force and Utah State at 9:30 pm et on Thursday. We won with Utah State in its 'upset' win over New Mexico last week but I'm going to switch gears and back the 'over' as the Aggies host 2-2 Air Force on Thursday night. I was high on Utah State's defense only due to the matchup last Thursday as New Mexico's offense had been as punchless as they come. While the Aggies certainly did enough defensively to win that game, we did see some serious cracks, especially after they were able to build a big third quarter lead. When they had a chance to really put the game to bed, they couldn't get their defense off the field as the Lobos went on a pair of touchdown drives that got them back into the game. Utah State hasn't done a good job defending the run this season and now faces Air Force's dominant option-based ground attack. I don't see the Aggies faring particularly well. Meanwhile, the Air Force defense has taken a step back after ranking near the top of the Mountain West Conference in most categories a year ago. That's not a surprise given all the turnover to their roster on that side of the football. While the Falcons are coming off a shutout victory, that came at the expense of aforementioned New Mexico. I'm willing to take a flyer on the Utah State offense here after QB Andrew Peasley stepped in and showed he could be a dual threat in last week's victory. While some regression should be in order, he'll by no means be facing an elite defense. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
11-28-20 | Utah v. Washington UNDER 48 | Top | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
Pac-12 Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Utah and Washington at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. We cashed a free play on the 'under' in Utah's season-opening loss to USC last Saturday and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as the Utes head to Washington to face the Huskies. All things considered, Utah held up well defensively against the Trojans last week, allowing just 357 total yards while recording three sacks and forcing a pair of turnovers, including one they returned for a touchdown. Offensively, the Utes will need some time to mesh with a lot of new pieces in place this year. This is a tough second matchup against a good Huskies defense that comes in off a bye week due to a Covid-related cancellation last Saturday. Washington has allowed just 48 points through two games this season but that includes a punt return touchdown against Oregon State. Note that in the Huskies most recent game they actually pitched a shutout until the fourth quarter against Arizona. Offensively, Washington isn't all that threatening. It took advantage of a bad Wildcats defense last time out but will obviously be facing a difficult matchup against a perennially-tough Utes defense on Saturday. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
11-28-20 | Penn State v. Michigan UNDER 58.5 | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 15 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Penn State and Michigan at 12 noon et on Saturday. I'll back the 'under' at the Big House on Saturday afternoon as two disappointing Big Ten East squads do battle. Penn State has yet to post a victory this season but should come in with some confidence in this one. Note that last week the Nittany Lions scored a touchdown with just over two minutes remaining in the first quarter against Iowa but then didn't find the end zone again until well over midway through the third quarter. Meanwhile, Michigan didn't manage to score a touchdown until the final four minutes of the first half against lowly Rutgers last week. That contest ultimately turned on a Michigan kick return touchdown to open the second half, ultimately turning into a shootout that took three overtimes to decide. I expect these two teams to revert to past form and step up defensively on Saturday afternoon. Both offenses have had a tough time putting it all together and I expect more of the same here. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
11-27-20 | Stanford v. California UNDER 52 | 24-23 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Stanford and California at 4:30 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'under' as the Cardinal and Golden Bears renew their rivalry at California Memorial Stadium on Friday afternoon. Stanford had its game against Washington State due to Covid protocols last week but when we last saw the Cardinal on the field they were involved in a wild 35-32 loss to Colorado. Keep in mind, Stanford didn't score a touchdown until over 10 minutes into the third quarter in that game. In its first game of the season against Oregon, Stanford found the end zone once in the first quarter but then not again until the game was out of hand midway through the fourth quarter. While the Cardinal defense has struggled, this is a favorable matchup against a Cal offense that doesn't do anything particularly well. The Bears managed to put together four scoring drives in the first half against Oregon State last week but were then held off the scoreboard for the entire second half. It was the same story in their first game of the season at UCLA as they put up 10 points in the first half and zero in the second. This matchup only managed to get into the 40's last season and I look for more of the same here. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
11-27-20 | Nebraska v. Iowa OVER 53 | Top | 20-26 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 13 m | Show |
Big Ten Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Nebraska and Iowa at 1 pm et on Friday. We cashed our Big Ten Total of the Month in October with the 'under' in Iowa's 21-20 loss to Northwestern. Since then, the Hawkeyes have rattled off three straight wins, scoring 49, 35 and 41 points in the process. Iowa's offense draws another favorable matchup on Friday as Nebraska comes in off a disappointing 41-23 home loss to Illinois. The Huskers defense isn't stopping anyone right now and will certainly have their hands full once again on Friday afternoon. I do expect Nebraska to show up, however, on the strength of an offense that is better than it has showed (at least in my opinion). The Huskers took three sacks and turned the football over a whopping five times last week against Illinois, but still managed to score 23 points. Meanwhile, Iowa recorded five sacks and forced five turnovers but still gave up 21 points on the road against Penn State last Saturday. I'm not going to overthink the situation here as I expect a physical Iowa offense to make life miserable for the Huskers defense while Nebraska should stay competitive in what amounts to the biggest game left on its 2020 calendar. I do think the Huskers worst offensive performances are behind them as their schedule was front-loaded with a tough season-opening three-game slate at Ohio State, vs. Wisconsin (that game was canceled) and at Northwestern. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
11-21-20 | Wisconsin v. Northwestern UNDER 44.5 | 7-17 | Win | 100 | 18 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Wisconsin and Northwestern at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. This game features a matchup of two of the nation's best defenses and two offenses in line for some regression on Saturday afternoon. The Badgers have scored over 40 points in both games this season, but those came against two reeling squads in Illinois and Michigan. Here, Wisconsin will face its toughest test of the season to date against an experienced Wildcats defense that has held all four opponents to 20 points or less. Northwestern scored 30 points in the first half of its season-opener against Maryland but has put up a grand total of just 82 points in three-and-a-half games since. QB Peyton Ramsey attempted 36 passes last week at Purdue. The last time he threw at least 30 passes in a game he followed it up with an 11-for-18 passing week the next game. I'm confident we'll see both teams treat their quarterbacks as game managers and rely on their ground attacks to move the football (and control the clock) in this crucial Big Ten showdown. While we're dealing with a low total by today's college football standards, I believe it's warranted. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
11-11-20 | Central Michigan v. Northern Illinois OVER 57.5 | 40-10 | Loss | -109 | 36 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Central Michigan and Northern Illinois at 8 pm et on Wednesday. I believe this game has high-scoring potential as Northern Illinois stays home following a wild 49-30 loss to Buffalo last week. Central Michigan is coming off a more positive result, a 30-27 victory over perennial MAC contender Ohio. I liked what I saw from the Chippewas offense in that game as QB Daniel Richardson and WR Kalili Pimpleton showed some nice chemistry (Pimpleton hauled in five catches for 65 yards and a touchdown) and RB Kobe Lewis racked up 112 rushing yards and two scores on 28 carries, despite his longest run going for only 11 yards. The Chips draw a more favorable matchup here against a relatively inexperienced and very beatable Northern Illinois defense. Note that NIU didn't record a single sack in last week's loss to Buffalo. The Huskies will need to be sharper offensively in order to keep pace with CMU this week. That's not really asking much after they lost four fumbles and added an interception last week. I do believe the Huskies are better than they showed offensively with experienced QB Ross Bowers leading the way. It is worth noting that they put together three first half scoring drives against arguably the MAC's best team in the Buffalo Bulls last week - before things got out of hand in the second half (due to three Bulls defensive scores). I'm expecting a more competitive affair than we saw between these teams last year (CMU won 48-10) and that lends itself to a high-scoring contest. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
11-10-20 | Akron v. Ohio UNDER 57 | Top | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
MAC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Akron and Ohio at 7 pm et on Tuesday. This should be a 'name your score' type of game for Ohio as it looks to bounce back from a 30-27 loss against Central Michigan last week against perennial MAC bottom-feeder Akron. With that being said, I'm not convinced we're going to see a ton of offensive fireworks. The Bobcats did well to put up 27 points in last week's setback, although it's worth noting that seven of those points came by way of a kickoff return for a touchdown. QB Nathan Rourke did it all for Ohio last season but he has since moved on, making way for his younger brother Kurtis, who is really more of a pocket passer and had mixed results in his starting debut last week. Dual-threat UNLV transfer Armani Rogers will continue to see playing time as well - I'm not a big fan of the two-headed QB system but it likely helps the Bobcats churn out some long, clock-churning drives in this one. After getting dominated in terms of time of possession in last week's loss, look for Ohio to flip the script and control this game from the opening kickoff. Akron scored 13 points in last week's blowout loss to Western Michigan. I believe it will be hard-pressed to reach that number again here. The Zips had one of the nation's worst offenses last year and there's little reason for optimism here in a unique 2020 campaign. While we may see Akron put together some lengthy drives against an Ohio defense that is by no means in midseason form (it didn't record a single sack last week), I don't expect it to end many of those drives with points on the board. To get 'over' this total I believe there would have to be solid contributions from both squads - I simply don't see that happening on Tuesday. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
11-07-20 | South Alabama v. Coastal Carolina UNDER 55.5 | Top | 6-23 | Win | 100 | 59 h 28 m | Show |
Sun Belt Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between South Alabama and Coastal Carolina at 8 pm et on Saturday. I'm anticipating a lower-scoring contest than most in this key Sun Belt showdown on Saturday night. South Alabama fell to an even 3-3 on the season with a 24-17 loss at Georgia Southern last Thursday. Now it stays on the road for an even tougher matchup against upstart Coastal Carolina, which is fresh off a 51-0 dismantling of Georgia State last week. A key here is the South Alabama defense. We actually started the 2020 campaign with a winner with the 'under' in USA's first game of the season - an upset win at Southern Miss. The Jaguars defense certainly held its own in October, allowing a grand total of just 58 points in three games, going 2-1 in the process. While Coastal Carolina has thrived offensively thanks in large part to the exploits of QB Grayson McCall, the Jaguars check in having allowed just four touchdown passes in six games this season. We've seen a few explosions from the Chanticleers offense this season but I'm not convinced we'll see them run up the score here, coming off that 51-point effort last week. Lost in last week's rout was the performance of their defense as they shutout a Georgia State squad that had put up a whopping 168 points in its first four games this season. Coastal Carolina is certainly capable of holding what I consider to be an over-achieving South Alabama offense at bay in this one. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
11-06-20 | San Jose State v. San Diego State UNDER 49 | 28-17 | Win | 100 | 13 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Jose State and San Diego State at 9 pm et on Friday. I'll take a shot with the 'under' in this Mountain West Conference showdown between two undefeated teams on Friday night. This is admittedly a low total by college football standards, but it's warranted in my opinion. San Jose State's offense has been humming with QB Nick Starkel padding his stats with a 467-yard, five-touchdown performance against New Mexico last week. Here, he'll face a much tougher challenge, however, against a talented and experienced San Diego State defense that has already recorded six sacks through two games, and has allowed just two passing touchdowns while recording two interceptions. The Spartans ground attack is limited and that should make it tough to stay on the field for extended periods in this one. Meanwhile, San Diego State certainly hasn't been known for its offense in recent years, but has been impressive so far. This is a tough test, however, after the Aztecs lined up against two of the nation's weakest defenses in UNLV and New Mexico in their first two games. I look for SDSU to put together plenty of long, clock-churning drives in this one, ultimately helping to keep this one 'under' the posted total. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
10-31-20 | UL-Lafayette v. Texas State OVER 56 | 44-34 | Win | 100 | 31 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between UL-Lafayette and Texas State at 8 pm et on Saturday. |
|||||||
10-31-20 | Northwestern v. Iowa UNDER 46.5 | Top | 21-20 | Win | 100 | 26 h 60 m | Show |
Big Ten Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Northwestern and Iowa at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. We saw just 20 total points scored when these two programs met a year ago, with all 20 of those points coming from Iowa. I'm anticipating another relatively low-scoring affair on Saturday afternoon at Kinnick Stadium. Northwestern busted out for 43 points in its season debut last week, but that came at the expense of a bad Maryland team. We saw a number of defensive breakdowns from the Terps in that contest, allowing the Wildcats to score one touchdown on a broken play and two others from 30+ yards out. Northwestern will face a much tougher test against Iowa this week. The Hawkeyes suffered a tough 24-20 loss to Purdue in their opener. While Purdue QB nearly 300 yards and three touchdowns, he needed 50 pass attempts to get to those totals. The fact that Iowa didn't put its best foot forward but still held the Boilermakers to only 24 points was telling. Offensively, Iowa will remain a work in progress. Expect a run-first gameplan against the Wildcats on Saturday, helping lead to plenty of long, clock-churning drives. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
10-30-20 | East Carolina v. Tulsa UNDER 62 | 30-34 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between East Carolina and Tulsa at 9 pm et on Friday. We won with the 'over' in Tulsa's rout of South Florida last week but I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the 'under' as the Golden Hurricane return home to host East Carolina on Friday night. The Pirates will welcome back QB Holton Ahlers from injury. This is a tough matchup though as the Tulsa defense has been stout - even against a pretty tough schedule that has included games against Oklahoma State and Central Florida - both on the road. Last week, the Golden Hurricane didn't allow a touchdown until midway through the third quarter. Earlier this season they held Oklahoma State out of the end zone until the fourth quarter and didn't give up a single second half touchdown against Central Florida. While Tulsa has scored 76 points over its last two games, it is by no means an offensive juggernaut. Keep in mind, the Golden Hurricane lost their offensive star, RB Shamari Brooks, to a season-ending injury before things even got going back in September. East Carolina should play with an edge at 1-3 on the season and coming off a bye week. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
10-29-20 | South Alabama v. Georgia Southern UNDER 52 | Top | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
Sun Belt Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between South Alabama and Georgia Southern at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. I like the way this one sets up as a relatively low-scoring affair. South Alabama has scored 30 or more points in consecutive games - both victories - but those came against two of the nation's weakest teams in Texas State and Louisiana Monroe - not to mention the fact that both games were played at home. Here, the Jaguars will face a tougher challenge as they hit the road to face Georgia Southern, which should be in a sour mood following a tough loss to Coastal Carolina last week. The Eagles have topped out at 42 points in a game this season but that came against a bad UMass squad that was playing its first game of the season. While the Eagles do have an experienced signal-caller in QB Shai Werts, I don't have a great deal of confidence in them running up the score here. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
10-24-20 | Temple v. Memphis OVER 69.5 | 29-41 | Win | 100 | 24 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Temple and Memphis at 12 noon et on Saturday. I've said from the start of the season that this Temple squad is built for shootouts and is likely to be involved in plenty of them this year. So far, so good as the Owls have played only two games but both were high-scoring - dropping a 31-29 decision against Navy before responding with a 39-37 victory over South Florida last week. Now comes another shootout in the making as the Owls travel to face Memphis. The Tigers are loaded on offense so it should come as no surprise that they've been involved in their share of high-scoring games already this season as well. Last week we saw Memphis return to the field following a bye week and proceed to score 50 points in a wild one-point victory over UCF. While the Tigers will be taking a step down in class here, I still expect their defense to struggle to contain the Owls attack. Last year's meeting saw just 58 total points but the potential is there for this one to get well into the 70's in my opinion. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
10-23-20 | Tulsa v. South Florida OVER 49.5 | Top | 42-13 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
AAC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Tulsa and South Florida at 7:30 pm et on Friday. This total has dropped into playable range since opening. We just haven't seen enough from Tulsa to get a true gauge of where the Golden Hurricane are at. After opening the season with a much lower-scoring than expected 16-7 loss at Oklahoma State they went on to stage a stunning upset of Central Florida in Orlando, scoring an impressive 34 points in the process. Here, I'm confident the Tulsa offense can ramp up again but I'm not sure the Golden Hurricane defense will hold up as well as it has to this point. It would be easy to suffer a bit of a letdown emotionally against a 1-4 South Florida squad. The Bulls are still trying to get their offense sorted but this is a fine breakout spot at home coming off an extra week of practice. While I'm not anticipating a shootout here, I do believe this one will ultimately climb over the very reasonable posted total. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
10-22-20 | Arkansas State v. Appalachian State UNDER 68 | 17-45 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Arkansas State and Appalachian State at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. We missed the mark (badly) with the 'under' in Arkansas State's victory over Georgia State last week. I won't hesitate to go back to the well here, however as the Red Wolves head on the road to face Appalachian State. The Mountaineers are well-rested if nothing else, having not played a game since September due to COVID concerns. Prior to the shutdown Appalachian State had gone 2-1 but was largely inconsistent offensively, only truly breaking out against FCS opponent Campbell. Here, I certainly wouldn't be surprised if the Mountaineers showed a bit of rust offensively. Meanwhile, we can't count on another offensive explosion from the Arkansas State offense - not against a much tougher Appalachian State defense. The last time these two programs met two years ago they combined to score 44 points. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
10-15-20 | Georgia State v. Arkansas State UNDER 73 | 52-59 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Georgia State and Arkansas State at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'under' in last night's Sun Belt clash and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Georgia State is coming off a wild 49-29 shootout win last week but that came at the expense of East Carolina - a team that will be involved in plenty of shootouts this season. Likewise for Arkansas State as the Red Wolves are fresh off a 50-27 win over Central Arkansas - another team with a tendency to get involved in wild, high-scoring affairs. Add in the fact that last year's meeting between Georgia State and Arkansas State reached 90 total points and you can understand why I believe we're dealing with an inflated total here. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
10-14-20 | Coastal Carolina v. UL-Lafayette UNDER 59 | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Coastal Carolina and Louisiana-Lafayette at 7:30 pm et on Wednesday. I'll take a shot with the 'under' as the Chanticleers and Ragin' Cajuns do battle in Sun Belt action on Wednesday night. Coastal Carolina has put up a whopping 133 points in going a perfect 3-0 this season. However, this will be their toughest test to date (they did face a Big 12 opponent but that was a bottom of the barrel Kansas squad). Louisiana-Lafayette has given up just 63 points in going a perfect 3-0 to start the season. Keep in mind, the Chanticleers haven't played since October 3rd while the Ragin' Cajuns have been idle since way back on September 26th. In keeping with the tradition of playing midweek 'unders', I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair than the oddsmakers here. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
10-09-20 | Louisville v. Georgia Tech UNDER 64.5 | 27-46 | Loss | -112 | 22 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Louisville and Georgia Tech at 7 pm et on Friday. We're dealing with a very high posted total for this one considering neither offense is all that complex or difficult to prepare for and both teams are coming off a bye week so they've had plenty of time to get ready. Louisville will be desperate to get back on track following consecutive losses to Miami and Pittsburgh. Likewise for Georgia Tech, even if its hopes weren't quite as high as those of the Cardinals entering the season. The Yellow Jackets have dropped consecutive games in blowout fashion against Central Florida and Syracuse. Note that Georgia Tech has yet to score more than 21 points in a game this season. The last meeting between these two teams totaled 94 points but that was back in 2018. Here, I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair than most. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
09-26-20 | Stephen F Austin v. SMU OVER 60.5 | 7-50 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Stephen F. Austin and SMU at 7 pm et on Saturday. This game has shootout written all over it as SMU looks to continue its hot start against FCS squad Stephen F. Austin. Mustangs QB Shane Buechele has picked up right where he left off last season, throwing for over 700 yards and five touchdowns through two games this season. There's little reason to expect him to ease up against the Lumberjacks on Saturday night. Meanwhile, the SMU backfield has been absolutely rolling and faces another favorable matchup here. On the flip side, SFA QB Trae Self showed some progression in last week's loss, passing for 285 yards and a touchdown after struggling in the season-opener. Keep in mind, the Mustangs have already given up 59 points in two games this season and it's not as if they've faced top level competition. SMU has posted victories against Texas State and North Texas. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
09-25-20 | Middle Tennessee State v. UTSA UNDER 60 | Top | 35-37 | Loss | -102 | 35 h 54 m | Show |
C-USA Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Middle Tennessee State and UTSA at 8 pm et on Friday. I'll back the 'under' at the Alamodome on Friday night as I don't expect a shootout between the Blue Raiders and Roadrunners. Middle Tennessee is off to an 0-2 start, scoring a grand total of 14 points in the process. While this is certainly the Blue Raiders most favorable matchup to date, I'm still not convinced we'll see their offense get rolling. Note that in last week's 47-14 rout at the hands of Troy they scored a touchdown in the final two minutes of the first quarter but then didn't find the end zone again until the game was completely out of hand with two minutes remaining in the fourth quarter. UTSA won a wild 51-48 overtime game against Texas State in its season-opener but reverted to low-scoring form in last week's 24-10 victory over Stephen F. Austin. In that win, the Roadrunners didn't score a touchdown until two minutes into the second quarter. Impressively, their defense gave up just a single touchdown, that coming in the dying seconds of the second quarter. The last meeting between these two teams reached 70 total points but that was back in 2016. Expect a different story to unfold here. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
09-19-20 | Tulsa v. Oklahoma State OVER 66 | 7-16 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Tulsa and Oklahoma State at 12 noon et on Saturday. We should see an old-fashioned shootout between the Golden Hurricane and Cowboys in this early start matchup on Saturday. Tulsa boasts a truly underrated offense entering the 2020 season with a loaded stable of running backs keyed by Shamari Brooks and Corey Taylor II not to mention an experienced senior quarterback in Zach Smith. He passed for over 3,200 yards and 19 touchdowns to go along with nine interceptions last season. He has his top target back in Keylon Stokes who hauled in 62 catches for over 1,000 yards and six touchdowns a year ago. Oklahoma State is obviously loaded on offense, led by RB Chuba Hubbard. QB Spencer Sanders was the Big 12 Offensive Freshman of the Year last season, although this will be his third year with the Cowboys. Expect fireworks on Saturday afternoon. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
09-12-20 | Syracuse v. North Carolina UNDER 65.5 | Top | 6-31 | Win | 100 | 27 h 48 m | Show |
CFB ACC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Syracuse and North Carolina at 12 noon et on Saturday. Most have this ACC opener pegged as a wild shootout between two offensive-minded teams in Syracuse and North Carolina. I feel the total has simply been set too high. The Orange certainly have a lot of work to do if they want to improve on last year's 5-7 squad that won just two games in ACC play. Their offensive line wasn't good and doesn't figure to be a whole lot better this year. The jury is still out on QB Tommy DeVito, who has shown flashes of brilliance but a real lack of consistency, albeit under duress most of the time. I do expect Syracuse to do a better job of keeping DeVito upright by leaning a little more on the ground game and the quick, short passing attack. The Tar Heels have a better defense than advertised as far as I'm concerned but they do have pass-funnel tendencies, particularly underneath, which could help keep the clock moving in this one. With that being said, I'm not convinced we'll see the Orange offense end many drives with 7's on the board as the Heels have an opportunistic defense that has the ability to tighten up in their own end of the field. The North Carolina offense is loaded. The strength of the offense is obviously their passing game with future NFL prospect QB Sam Howell and a talented group of wide receivers. The good news for Syracuse is that the strength of its defense is in the secondary where it boasts an experienced, underrated group. Like the Heels defense, the Orange secondary has also shown a knack for forcing turnovers. I believe we'll see the Orange do just enough to keep the Heels big play ability at bay for stretches. With a sky-high total, I'll call for enough stalled drives to keep this one 'under' the number. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
09-10-20 | UAB v. Miami-FL OVER 54 | Top | 14-31 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 16 m | Show |
CFB Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between UAB and Miami at 8 pm et on Thursday. The Miami offense was absolutely dreadful a year ago, but perhaps that should have been expected (we noted the Canes offense would likely struggle right out of the gates in a season-opening play on the 'under' against Florida). We should see a different story unfold in 2020, however. QB D'Eriq King gives the Canes a bonafide veteran leader and star on offense. While the cupboard has been cleaned out in terms of the wide receiving corps, it's by no means bare. The Canes are loaded with speed all over the field on offense and King should have no trouble building a solid rapport with terrific TE Brevin Jordan. UAB's defense was terrific stat-wise last season, but that's playing most of its games against C-USA opponents. On the flip side, the Miami defense loses a number of key cogs after a strong 2019 campaign. I'm higher on the UAB offense than most. While the Blazers 45-point outburst last week came against an FCS squad in Central Arkansas, I saw plenty of positives, namely the performance of RB Spencer Brown, who ran for 127 yards and a score on 24 carries. He's in line for a big bounce-back season after playing hurt much of last year. In WR Austin Watkins Jr., the Blazers have a home run threat veteran QB Tyler Johnston can bank on as well. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
09-07-20 | BYU v. Navy UNDER 49.5 | 55-3 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between BYU and Navy at 8 pm et on Monday. This total has obviously dropped considerably since opening but I still see some value playing the 'under' at the current number. BYU will be missing TE Matt Bushman - who was expected to be one of the best tight ends in FBS this season. The Cougars are also replacing most of their receiving corps from a year ago. While QB Zach Wilson has plenty of upside, I'm not convinced we'll see him come out bombing away here on Monday night. Navy is also turning to a number of new faces on offense, which is pretty much par for the course for the Midshipmen every year. QB Dalen Morris takes over the reins under center and we can expect a fairly conservative version of the option attack against a solid BYU defense. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
09-05-20 | Arkansas State v. Memphis UNDER 74 | 24-37 | Win | 100 | 94 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Arkansas State and Memphis at 8 pm et on Saturday. Let's face it, we're dealing with a diminished opening week slate of games due to Covid-19 but this primetime matchup between Arkansas State and Memphis does have the potential to be one of the week's most entertaining affairs. We're looking at a massive posted total for this one and while both offenses have proven explosive in recent years while the defenses have left a lot to be desired, I'm not convinced we're going to see the type of shootout the oddsmakers are projecting. Arkansas State knows it will be hard-pressed to win a shootout with Memphis - it simply doesn't have enough big-time playmakers to come away victorious in that sort of back-and-forth battle. Instead, I look for the Red Wolves to focus on trying to sustain long drives with an experienced offensive line capable of helping them move the chains with some consistency. The issue is that the Memphis defense has plenty of talent and experience, and lots of room for improvement, not to mention motivation get off to a strong start here in the season-opener at home. Memphis is loaded once again on offense but will have to replace star RB Kenneth Gainwell, who has opted out this season. The Tigers will generate plenty of offense but I don't believe it will be enough to get this one north of the sky-high total. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
09-05-20 | Middle Tennessee State v. Army OVER 55 | 0-42 | Loss | -108 | 88 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Middle Tennessee State and Army at 1:30 pm et on Saturday. While I'll admit this total has settled out a little higher than I would like, I still see value playing the 'over' at the current number. Neither squad was an offensive juggernaut a year ago but I'm confident we'll see both teams get off to a positive start thanks to this favorable matchup on Saturday. The real key here is that neither defense showed the ability to get into the backfield with any consistency a year ago, and both units lose a number of key pieces entering the new season. Both teams have plenty of dynamic playmakers at the skill positions on offense and given enough time - as should be the case here - I look for the two offenses to feast. Expect to see enough 'home run plays' to help send this one 'over' the total. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
09-03-20 | South Alabama v. Southern Miss UNDER 53.5 | 32-21 | Win | 100 | 54 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between South Alabama and Southern Miss at 9 pm et on Thursday. I'm not expecting a great deal of offensive fireworks as South Alabama and Southern Miss open what promises to be a unique college football season on Thursday night. Southern Miss should be able to name its score against a Jaguars squad that might be one of the weakest teams in the nation (of those playing that is). With that being said, the Golden Eagles are dealing with a number of key departures on offense and might just focus on pounding away on the ground and controlling the clock in this very winnable contest. QB Jack Abraham has shown plenty of promise but he likely won't be asked to do too much in the season-opener. South Alabama's spread offense is going to continue to go through some growing pains. While the Jaguars do boast considerable talent at the wide receiver position, I'm not sure they have the quarterback to make it happen on the scoreboard. Most will be looking for an entertaining, high-scoring affair to open the campaign with this total set in the 50's. I'm find with going the other way and grabbing some perceived value with the 'under'. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
01-06-20 | Miami-OH v. UL-Lafayette UNDER 55.5 | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Miami-Ohio and Louisiana-Lafayette at 7:30 pm et on Monday. I'll back the 'under' on Monday night as the Redhawks and Ragin' Cajuns meet at the tail-end of Bowl season. Both teams will obviously be well-rested and well-prepared for this one having been idle for over a month. Miami-Ohio does not have an explosive offense by any means and will be best suited to turn this into a slugfest. That may be easier said than done as the Ragin' Cajuns do possess a high-octane offense. With that being said, we've seen the Redhawks rise to the occasion a number of times this season and I'm confident they can do so again here. Louisiana-Lafayette thrived against a number of punchless defenses in the Sun Belt over the course of the season but should find the sledding a little tougher here. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
01-02-20 | Boston College v. Cincinnati UNDER 55.5 | 6-38 | Win | 100 | 18 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Boston College and Cincinnati at 3 pm et on Thursday. I absolutely love the way this one sets up as a lower-scoring game than expected on Thursday afternoon. Boston College will be without elite NFL-ready RB A.J. Dillon in this one, severely hampering its offensive attack. Defensively, we saw the Eagles stiffen up down the stretch. Over their final three games they didn't allow a touchdown until the final five minutes of the first half against Florida State, held Notre Dame out of the end zone until the final three minutes of the first half, and didn't allow a Pitt touchdown until the third quarter. Cincinnati QB Desmond Ridder has impressed over the course of his Bearcat career but didn't enjoy a banner season in 2019, particularly down the stretch. Whether due to injury or otherwise, Ridder threw multiple touchdown passes just once in his last six games. He also threw for more than 200 yards only once over that stretch. While I do respect the Cincinnati offense, I don't expect to see it go off in this matchup. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
01-01-20 | Minnesota v. Auburn OVER 53 | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 17 h 52 m | Show |
CFB Bowl Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Auburn at 1 pm et on Wednesday. This game has shootout potential as the upstart Golden Gophers challenge SEC stalwarts Auburn in the Outback Bowl on New Year's Day. Minnesota actually put up some solid defensive numbers during the regular season but was certainly buoyed by a schedule that boasted few offensive juggernauts. There is plenty of reason to be confident in the Golden Gophers offense, however. QB Tanner Morgan threw for at least one touchdown pass in all 12 games this season. While RB Rodney Smith cooled off down the stretch, there's no question the Gophers backfield is capable of busting out here. Auburn took on all comers during the regular season, culminating with a 48-45 win over Alabama on November 30th. QB Bo Nix had his ups and downs and didn't throw multiple touchdown passes in any of his last five games. I do think he can take advantage of a middle of the road Minnesota defense here, however. I've been high on Tigers RB JaTarvious Whitlow all season. He wasn't given a heavy workload but showed flashes of brilliance, most recently running for 114 yards on 16 carries against Alabama. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
12-31-19 | Texas v. Utah OVER 54 | 38-10 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Texas and Utah at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. I'm anticipating a back-and-forth shootout between the Longhorns and Utes in the Alamo Bowl on Tuesday night. Even though Texas stumbled down the stretch, losing two of its last three games, QB Sam Ehlinger kept rolling along, throwing for over 800 yards and five touchdowns over that stretch. His exploits should be on full display once again here, even against a stellar Utah defense. The Utes won't back down from a shootout. They got caught flat-footed in the Pac-12 Championship Game against Oregon (we won with the Ducks in that game) but should be well prepared and well-suited to go toe-to-toe with the Longhorns. QB Tyler Huntley had just two games where he didn't throw a touchdown pass this season. RB Zack Moss had only four games where he didn't run for over 100 yards and scored at least one touchdown in 10 of 12 games he appeared in. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
12-30-19 | Illinois v. California UNDER 44 | 20-35 | Loss | -109 | 20 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Illinois and California at 4 pm et on Monday. This is a defensive struggle waiting to happen as the Illini face the Golden Bears on Monday afternoon. While we are dealing with a relatively low total, it's warranted in my opinion. These two teams are essentially mirror images of one another with Cal owning the stronger defense statistically. Offensively, both teams were inconsistent over the course of the regular season. While Cal closed things out on a high note, Illinois managed to score just 20 points combined in its final two regular season contests. I'm not convinced we'll see either team open things up on Monday afternoon, knowing that this is a 'first to 20 wins' type of affair. Take the under (10*). |
- Early Lines
- High Limits
- NEW VIP Rewards
- VIP Program
- Mobile Betting
- Crypto
- VIP Program
- Crypto
- Live & Mobile Betting!
- Crypto
- Live & Mobile Betting
- 48 Hour Payouts
- 35% Crypto Bonus
- Live Betting
- Mobile Friendly
Guaranteed Winners or your money back and Free Picks in the NFL football, NBA basketball, MLB baseball, NCAA college football and basketball, Nascar Racing, Arena Football nhl hockey leagues and more.
We are part of the internets Premier Sports Handicappers League with full documentation of all members on this sports betting news and info portal. Free Membership, Join Today and start Winning!
For any resources you could need like sports handicapping odds, handicapping stats, schedules, or handicappers free picks and tips please click on any of the links on the right hand side of this page.