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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-02-24 | Knicks v. 76ers UNDER 200.5 | Top | 118-115 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 40 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Philadelphia at 9 pm et on Thursday. This series has tightened up considerably in the last two games with just 189 and 194 points scored in regulation time (Game 5 went 'over' the total thanks to overtime). That's about what we would expect from two familiar, physical teams. Note that the 'under' is 18-13 in the Knicks last 31 games following an upset loss at home including a 5-1 mark in that situation this season. The 'under' is also 62-54 with New York seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent over the last three seasons including a 21-15 record this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 8-4 with the 76ers playing at home with the total set between 200 and 209.5 points over the last three seasons, which is the case here at the time of writing, including a 3-2 mark in that spot this season. Take the under (10*). |
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04-28-24 | Wolves v. Suns OVER 210.5 | 122-116 | Win | 100 | 14 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Phoenix at 9:30 pm et on Sunday. In what could be the Suns last stand in this series, we'll call for another relatively high-scoring contest on Sunday. Note that the 'over' is now 78-53 in Minnesota's last 131 road games including a 23-19 mark this season. The 'over' is also 24-21 in the Timberwolves last 45 contests following three straight victories including a 13-6 record this season. The Suns have seen the 'over' go a perfect 7-0 off consecutive double-digit losses over the last three seasons including a 3-0 mark this season. The 'over' is also 9-7 in Phoenix's last 16 contests when seeking revenge for a double-digit home loss against an opponent including a 5-2 record in that situation this season. Take the over (8*). |
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04-27-24 | Celtics v. Heat UNDER 202.5 | Top | 104-84 | Win | 100 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
Eastern Conference First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Miami at 6 pm et on Saturday. Game 2 of this series found its way 'over' the total as the Heat staged a massive double-digit upset win. I look for a much different story to unfold as the scene shifts to Miami on Saturday. The pace certainly wouldn't lead you to believe we would have seen an 'over' result in Game 2. Miami made the most of its 75 field goal attempts while holding Boston to just 80. Keep in mind, Game 1 was played at a slow pace as well with the Celtics hoisting up 82 and the Heat 81. Note that the 'under' is 36-29 in Boston's last 65 games following an upset loss including a 9-7 mark in that situation this season. The 'under' is 17-11 in Miami's last 28 games as a home underdog including a 6-4 record this season. Take the under (10*). |
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04-26-24 | Clippers v. Mavs OVER 209 | Top | 90-101 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 51 m | Show |
First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Dallas at 8 pm et on Friday. The first two games in this series both stayed 'under' the total. In fact, neither contest came close to toppling the total and as a result we're working with a much lower number in Game 3 on Friday. I see a catalyst for change at work here as the scene shifts to Dallas. I certainly don't expect either team to shoot as poorly as they did in Games 1 and 2. Note that the 'over' is 26-23 in the Clippers last 49 games after giving up 100 points or less in their previous contest including an 8-6 mark in that situation this season. The 'over' is also 25-21 with the Clips coming off a game where they scored 100 points or less including a 5-3 record this season. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 45-37 in the Mavericks last 82 contests as a favorite of between 3.5 and 9.5 points including a 17-13 mark in that situation this season. The two regular season meetings between these two teams here in Dallas totalled 270 and 231 points. Take the over (10*). |
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04-21-24 | Mavs v. Clippers OVER 222.5 | 97-109 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Dallas and Los Angeles at 3:30 pm et on Sunday. We've seen this total drop considerably since opening but I think it's moving in the wrong direction. Both teams were trending faster down the stretch. The Clippers, while enduring their share of struggles, were actually rather consistent offensively over the final month of the regular season. They check in having connected on 40 or more field goals in six straight and 13 of their last 15 games overall. The problem is, their defensive play has left a lot to be desired this season. They've allowed eight of their last nine opponents to get off at least 88 field goal attempts. The Mavericks essentially punted their final two games of the regular season but prior to that had made good on 46, 50 and 43 field goals over their last three contests. They've hoisted more than 90 field goal attempts in eight of their last 15 games. Note that the 'over' is 23-20 in the Mavs last 43 road games with the total set in the 220's including a 7-4 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 36-28 in the Clippers last 64 games following consecutive 'under' results, as is the case here, including an 11-9 record this season. Take the over (8*). |
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04-14-24 | Bucks v. Magic OVER 214.5 | Top | 88-113 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 50 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and Orlando at 1:10 pm et on Sunday. The Magic have been trending in the wrong direction defensively, allowing three straight and four of their last five opponents to connect on at least 42 field goals. They've also been playing faster down the stretch, hoisting up 90 or more field goal attempts in three of their last five contests. The Bucks can seemingly bait any opponent into an up-tempo affair, noting that they've allowed 89 or more field goal attempts in 10 of their last 12 games. Even without Giannis in the lineup, they've been clicking offensively, making good on 41 or more field goals in six of their last eight contests. The 'over' is 32-21 in the Bucks last 53 games following a road loss including a 10-8 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 49-39 in Orlando's last 88 contests when seeking revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent, as is the case here, including a 13-7 mark this season. Take the over (10*). |
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04-12-24 | Pelicans v. Warriors UNDER 219.5 | 114-109 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New Orleans and Golden State at 10:10 pm et on Friday. The Pelicans are coming off an exceptionally high scoring affair in Sacramento last night as both teams quite simply shot the lights out. The pace wasn't necessarily there for a contest that approached 260 total points. I expect a lower-scoring contest on Friday as the Pelicans wrap up their road trip in San Francisco. Golden State is trending slower having gotten off just 80 and 77 field goal attempts in its last two games with the latter performance coming in last night's 100-92 win in Portland. While the Warriors have been red hot shooting the basketball I do think the Pelicans can tame them here, noting that New Orleans has had a penchant for bouncing back from subpar defensive efforts (it allowed Sacramento to connect on 46 field goals last night). The Pelicans have still held 20 of their last 25 opponents to 43 or fewer made field goals. On the flip side, New Orleans has gotten off 87 or fewer field goal attempts in five straight games. This doesn't figure to be the spot where it suddenly starts playing fast as the tail-end of a long road trip near the end of the regular season. The Warriors have incredibly limited 10 of their last 11 opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals. Take the under (8*). |
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04-10-24 | Wolves v. Nuggets UNDER 213.5 | Top | 107-116 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 38 m | Show |
Northwest Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Denver at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. As is the case with many teams on Wednesday, both the Timberwolves and Nuggets are in a back-to-back spot here. I think this sets up as a relatively low-scoring affair between these Northwest Division rivals. Note that the Timberwolves have been the picture of consistency from a defensive standpoint this season. They're not getting run out of the gym by many opponents having held an incredible 17 straight opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals. Over that stretch, only two opponents made good on more than 42. It's a similar story for the Nuggets but with even more dominance. They've limited seven of their last eight foes to fewer than 40 made field goals. You would have to go back 15 games to find the last time they allowed an opponent to connect on more than 42. The 'under' is 13-10 in Minnesota's last 23 games after scoring 130 points or more in their previous contest, as is the case here, including a 1-0 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 29-21 in the Nuggets last 15 contests as a home favorite of six points or less including a 9-4 record in that spot this season. Take the under (10*). |
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04-09-24 | Clippers v. Suns UNDER 226.5 | Top | 105-92 | Win | 100 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
Pacific Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Phoenix at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. The 'under' has cashed in each of the Suns last three games and I look for a similar story to unfold on Tuesday. Phoenix has held six straight opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts and three in a row to 40 or fewer made field goals. On the flip side, you would have to go back eight games to find the last time the Suns connected on more than 44 field goals. Meanwhile, the Clippers have been limited to 43 or fewer made field goals in six of their last seven games. They've held four straight and six of their last seven foes to 43 or fewer made field goals. Note that the 'under' is 60-45 in the Clippers last 105 games with the total set in the 220's including a 19-12 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 61-57 in the Suns last 118 contests as a home favorite including an 18-16 record this season. Take the under (10*). |
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04-08-24 | Purdue v. Connecticut UNDER 145.5 | Top | 60-75 | Win | 100 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
CBB Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Purdue and Connecticut at 9:20 pm et on Monday. I'm not going to stand in the way of either team's 'under' streaks in this matchup. Purdue has seen the 'under' cash in three straight games while Connecticut rides a six-game 'under' streak into Monday's contest. Neither team plays all that fast. In fact, the Huskies sit 328th (out of 362 Division I teams) in adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom. Purdue checks in 211th. While both teams are ultra-efficient offensively, I generally feel this large stadium venues tend to put a ceiling on shooting abilities. The Huskies actually shot well in their matchup with Alabama on Saturday but Purdue is a considerably tougher defensive opponent. The Boilermakers are going to be up against it here trying to find open looks with UConn ranking fourth in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency (also according to KenPom). I think the Huskies can defend without fouling, something Purdue's previous opponents haven't been able to do effectively. Note that the 'under' is 16-15 in Purdue's last 31 netural court games and 18-12 in UConn's last 30 netural court affairs. Take the under (10*). |
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04-07-24 | Kings v. Nets OVER 220 | 107-77 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Sacramento and Brooklyn at 7:40 pm et on Sunday. Both of these teams are coming off relatively low-scoring results and the Nets find themselves in a back-to-back situation following last night's victory over the Pistons. I'm anticipating a higher-scoring affair on Sunday in Brooklyn. The Kings have shown signs of speeding things up lately, getting off 92 and 99 field goal attempts in two games sandwiched around a matchup with the slow-paced Knicks. They should get theirs against a matador-like Nets defense on Sunday, noting that Brooklyn has allowed 42, 53, 46 and 42 made field goals over its last four contests. While the Kings have been stout defensively, the Nets have shown flashes offensively in recent weeks, connecting on more than 40 field goals in four of their last six games (they didn't reach that number last night but still scored 113 points against Detroit). The 'over' is 64-54 in the Kings last 118 games following an 'under' result including a 21-17 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'over' has cashed in four straight games with the Nets playing the second half of back-to-backs. Take the over (8*). |
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04-06-24 | Cavs v. Lakers OVER 228.5 | 97-116 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Los Angeles at 3:40 pm et on Saturday. Sometimes these early start matchups on the west coast can be sleepy affairs but I don't expect that to be the case here. The Lakers have connected on 42 or more field goals in six of their last seven games. They're playing fast having gotten off 101 and 91 field goal attempts over their last two contests. Meanwhile, the Cavs haven't been their usual effective selves defensively and that's been the case for weeks. They've allowed five straight and seven of their last eight opponents to knock down more than 40 field goals. While Cleveland hasn't been playing particularly fast lately, the Lakers have a knack for speeding up the opposition, sometimes to their own detriment. Their opponents have gotten off 89 or more field goal attempts in an incredible 30 of their last 31 games. The last time these two teams squared off back in November Cleveland hoisted up 91 field goal attempts in a game that reached 236 total points. The 'over' holds a slight edge in the long-term picture with the Cavs facing non-conference foes going 42-41 in their last 83 contests including a 16-10 mark this season. The 'over' is also 94-91 in Cleveland's last 185 contests following a loss by 20 points or more, as is the case here, including a 3-0 record in that situation this season. The Lakers have seen the 'over' go 123-102 in their last 225 games with the total set at 220 points or higher including a 43-31 record in that situation this season. Take the over (8*). |
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04-05-24 | Wolves v. Suns UNDER 219 | Top | 87-97 | Win | 100 | 15 h 28 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Phoenix at 10:10 pm et on Friday. These two teams were involved in a high-scoring affair the last time they met but that was back in November. Phoenix is trending slower right now having gotten off 87 or fewer field goal attempts in five straight and eight of its last 10 games. The Suns have also played some defense lately, limiting seven of their last eight opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals. Of course the Timberwolves have been one of the best defensive teams in the league this season and they enter this contest having held 11 straight and 13 of their last 14 foes to 42 or fewer made field goals. Minnesota's offense exploded last time out but that was against a matador-like Raptors defense. Prior to that, the T'Wolves had been held to 42 or fewer made field goals in seven straight contests. Note that the 'under' is 50-44 in Minnesota's last 94 games when seeking revenge for a loss in which its opponent scored 110 points or more, as is the case here, including a 15-5 mark in that situation this season. The 'under' holds a slight edge in all Suns home games recently, going 67-63 in their last 130 contests in the desert including a 19-18 record this season. Take the under (10*). |
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04-04-24 | 76ers v. Heat UNDER 210 | 109-105 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Miami at 7:40 pm et on Thursday. We saw a glimpse of how the 76ers are likely to play with Joel Embiid back in the lineup on Tuesday and that's relatively slow as they got off just 78 field goal attempts in that come-from-behind victory. We also saw Philadelphia bounce back defensively in that contest, holding Oklahoma City to just 37 made field goals. Note that the Sixers haven't allowed more than 90 field goal attempts since way back on March 6th against Memphis. Miami has seen each of its last three games go 'over' the total but the numbers point to that trend being unsustainable. Note that the Heat have held 12 of their last 15 opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals. None of their last 12 foes have gotten off more than 88 field goal attempts. The 'under' is 39-24 in Philadelphia's last 63 games as a road underdog including a 12-7 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is a long-term 45-40 in the Heat's last 85 contests following three straight double-digit victories, as is the case here, including a 1-0 record this season. Take the under (8*). |
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04-01-24 | Blazers v. Magic OVER 207.5 | 103-104 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Portland and Orlando at 7:10 pm et on Monday. The Blazers have been one of the league's worst defensive teams in recent weeks, allowing four of their last six opponents to knock down at least 44 field goals and three of their last four to hoist up more than 90 field goal attempts. While Orlando's preferred pace is methodical, I do expect it to get out and run taking what Portland gives it on Monday. Note that the Magic, while an elite defensive team, have been giving up their share of opportunities lately (by their standards anyway), yielding 87, 90, 85 and 86 field goal attempts over their last four contests. The Blazers were held to just 35 made field goals last time out against Miami. However, they have shown the ability to bounce back offensively in recent weeks, connecting on 42 or more field goals in three straight games after being held to fewer than 40 in their previous contest. The 'over' is 52-49 in Portland's last 101 games as a road underdog including a 19-17 record in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'over'Â is 22-10 in Orlando's last 32 contests following a double-digit home win, as is the case here, including a 12-6 mark in that spot this season. Take the over (8*). |
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03-31-24 | Heat v. Wizards UNDER 218 | Top | 119-107 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Washington at 6:10 pm et on Sunday. Miami is coming off a stunning 142-point explosion against Portland last time out. Keep in mind, the Heat are just one game removed from a stretch that saw them score 92 points or fewer in three of five games. The Wizards continue to see wild swings offensively. They were held to only 87 points in an 'upset' loss at home against the Pistons last time out. They've been limited to 42 or fewer made field goals in six of their last eight contests. However, on the flip side, Washington has held four of its last five foes to 40 or fewer made field goals. Miami continues to play smothering defense (by today's NBA standards), limiting 10 straight opponents to 87 or fewer field goal attempts. Note that the 'under' is 39-35 in Miami's last 74 contests when seeking revenge for a loss in which its opponent score 110 points or more, as is the case here, including a 10-6 mark in that situation this season. The 'under' is also 10-3 in the Heat's last 13 games as a road favorite of between 6.5 and 12 points including a 4-0 record in that spot this season. The 'under' is 12-8 in Washington's last 20 contests following consecutive home defeats including an 8-4 mark this season. Off an upset loss at home, the Wiz have seen the 'under' go 15-3 in their last 18 games including 3-0 this season. Take the under (10*). |
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03-30-24 | Grizzlies v. Magic OVER 207.5 | 88-118 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Memphis and Orlando at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. The Magic are in a back-to-back situation after suffering a three-point loss at home against the Clippers last night. That contest totalled only 197 points but I'm anticipating a higher-scoring affair as Orlando welcomes the Grizzlies to Amway Center on Saturday. Memphis has been getting its shots off regardless the opposition lately, hoisting up 94 or more field goal attempts in four of its last five games. While it does face a difficult challenge against one of the league's best defensive teams in Orlando on Saturday, it's worth noting that the Magic have allowed three of their last four foes to connect on 40 or more field goals (after holding 10 of their previous 11 opponents to fewer than 40). Orlando's offense has struggled in the last two games but it should be happy to see Memphis on Saturday, noting the Grizzlies have been tagged for 42 or more made field goals in six of their last seven contests including 45 or more in four of those matchups. Note that the 'over' is 38-33 in Memphis' last 71 games as a road underdog including an 18-13 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 23-19 in Orlando's last 42 contests after allowing 100 points or less in its previous game including a 12-9 record in that spot this season. Take the over (8*). |
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03-29-24 | 76ers v. Cavs UNDER 212.5 | 114-117 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Cleveland at 7:40 pm et on Friday. The Cavaliers are coming off a much higher-scoring contest than expected in Charlotte two nights ago as they were upset by the Hornets. Meanwhile, the 76ers dropped a one-point decision at home against the Clippers. Philadelphia has held an incredible 10 of its last 11 opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals. On the flip side, however, it has been limited to 41 or fewer made field goals in 18 of its last 20 contests. Cleveland actually allowed Charlotte to get off only 76 field goal attempts last time out. The Hornets quite simply shot the lights out in a quick revenge spot. Note that the Cavs have limited five straight opponents to 85 or fewer field goal attempts. Cleveland has hoisted up 86 or fewer field goal attempts in seven straight contests. The 'under' is 39-23 in the 76ers last 62 games as a road underdog including a 12-6 mark in that situation this season. Additionally, the 'under' is 33-28 in Cleveland's last 61 games when seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent including a 7-5 record in that spot this season. Take the under (8*). |
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03-27-24 | Cavs v. Hornets UNDER 206.5 | Top | 111-118 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Charlotte at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. These two teams found their way 'over' the total in the front half of this home-and-home set on Monday in Cleveland. I expect a different story to unfold on Wednesday in Charlotte. Note that the Cavaliers knocked down 46 field goals in that victory. They simply shot the lights out but were by no means volume-shooters, getting off just 86 field goal attempts. In fact, the Cavs have hoisted up 86 or fewer field goal attempts in six straight and eight of their last nine games. They haven't connected on more than 40 field goals in consecutive games since a three-game streak from February 25th to 28th. The Hornets have been far worse offensively in recent weeks. They've made good on 38 or fewer field goals in five straight games. They've have a tough enough time getting shots off let alone knocking them down, attempting just 82, 79, 84 and 80 field goals over their last four games. While Charlotte is by no means an elite defensive team, it has at least been able to limit its opponents scoring opportunities, holding eight of its last 10 foes to 87 or fewer field goal attempts. Note that the 'under' is 10-4 in the Cavs last 14 games as a road favorite of between 6.5 and 12 points including an 8-0 record in that situation this season. The 'under' is also 25-18 in the Cavs last 43 contests following consecutive 'over' results, as is the case here, including an 8-6 record in that spot this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 22-11 in the Hornets last 33 games as a home underdog of between 6.5 and 12 points including a 14-5 mark this season. Finally, the 'under' is 29-20 in Charlotte's last 49 contests when seeking revenge for a double-digit road loss against an opponent including an 11-8 record this season. Take the under (10*). |
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03-26-24 | Lakers v. Bucks OVER 232 | Top | 128-124 | Win | 100 | 13 h 26 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Milwaukee at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Bucks are well-positioned to go off offensively on Tuesday as they wrap up their three-game homestand against an injury-depleted Lakers squad. Milwaukee has connected on 51, 45, 43 and 49 field goals over its last four games. It has also been playing faster, hoisting up more than 90 field goal attempts in three of its last four contests. That spells trouble for a matador-like Lakers defense that has allowed more than 40 made field goals in seven of its last eight games, yielding at least 96 field goal attempts in four straight games and 92 or more in 10 of its last 11 contests. I do think the Lakers offense can be brought along for the ride in this game so to speak. Keep in mind, the Bucks have a poor track record as home favorites, going 57-62 ATS in their last 119 games in that role including a 15-18 ATS record this season. Milwaukee has allowed three of its last four opponents to connect on at least 40 field goals. The 'over' is 54-33 in the Lakers last 87 contests as a road underdog including a 13-8 record in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 27-25 in the Bucks last 52 games as a home favorite of six points or less including a 13-9 mark this season. Take the over (10*). |
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03-25-24 | 76ers v. Kings UNDER 222 | 96-108 | Win | 100 | 12 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Sacramento at 10:10 pm et on Monday. The 76ers entered Sunday's game against the Clippers on a 7-0-1 'under' run but that game ended up sailing 'over' the posted total. I look for a return to 'normal' on Monday as Philadelphia wraps up its western road swing with a stop in Sacramento. Philadelphia has now held eight of its last nine opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals. It has also limited 10 of its last 11 foes to 41 or fewer made field goals. While the Sixers did bust out for 48 made field goals against the Clips on Sunday they had been limited to 41 or fewer in 11 straight and 16 of their last 17 contests prior to that. The Kings figure to offer considerable resistance here as they've held eight straight and 11 of their last 12 opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals. On the flip side, Sacramento has connected on 42 or fewer field goals itself in four of its last five contests. Note that the 'under' is 45-30 in the Kings last 75 games as a home favorite including a 19-10 mark in that situation this season. Take the under (8*). |
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03-25-24 | Grizzlies v. Nuggets OVER 213.5 | Top | 103-128 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Memphis and Denver at 9:10 pm et on Monday. The Grizzlies are coming off a low-scoring victory in San Antonio on Friday but I look for a different story to unfold as they head to Denver to face the Nuggets on Monday. Note that Memphis has been trending toward higher-scoring affairs on its current road trip having hoisted up 92 and 96 field goal attempts in regulation time in two of three contests. Denver has actually proven vulnerable defensively, or at least more than usual, in recent contests allowing three of its last four foes to connect on at least 42 field goals. Speaking of vulnerability at the defensive end of the floor, Memphis has allowed 44 or more made field goals in regulation time in four of its last seven games. The Nuggets continue to thrive offensively having connected on 40 or more field goals in 14 of their last 16 games and 45 or more nine times over that stretch. Note that the 'over' is 37-33 in Memphis' last 70 games as a road underdog including a 17-13 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 10-6 in the Nuggets last 16 home games with the total set between 210 and 219.5 points including a 3-2 record in that spot this season. Take the over (10*). |
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03-24-24 | Warriors v. Wolves OVER 218.5 | 110-114 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Golden State and Minnesota at 7:10 pm et on Sunday. The Warriors continue to give up far too many scoring opportunities having allowed four straight opponents to get off more than 90 field goal attempts. In fact, nine of their last 11 opponents have connected on more than 40 field goals. Minnesota has been far stingier defensively - one of the best defensive teams in the league, in fact. However, Golden State has been rather matchup-proof from an offensive standpoint, knocking down more than 40 field goals in 11 of its last 13 contests. I do think the Warriors will put up a fight in this game off that tough home loss against the Pacers on Friday. The Timberwolves have been as steady as they've been all season offensively in recent weeks, connecting on 40 or more field goals in five straight and seven of their last eight games. The 'over' is 44-36 in Golden State's last 80 games as an underdog including a 16-10 record in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 12-10 in the Timberwolves last 22 contests with the total set between 210 and 219.5 including a 6-3 record in that spot this season. Take the over (8*). |
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03-24-24 | James Madison v. Duke UNDER 148.5 | 55-93 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between James Madison and Duke at 5:15 pm et on Sunday. I think we saw a pretty good blueprint of what these two teams want to do in this tournament in the opening round on Saturday, even if both did end up shooting poorly. James Madison will be an underdog throughout the Big Dance and I think there's a path to success if it can effectively shorten proceedings and limit scoring opportunities for the opposition. Duke doesn't play at all that fast of a pace, ranking 236th in the country in adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom. Note that the Blue Devils have held five of their last seven opponents to 56 or fewer field goal attempts. Only one of James Madison's last six foes has managed to get off 60 or more field goal attempts. The 'under' is 21-15 in James Madison's last 36 games following a double-digit win including a 13-6 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 30-24 in Duke's last 54 contests following an ATS victory including a 10-8 record in that spot this season. Take the under (8*). |
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03-23-24 | Oregon v. Creighton UNDER 146 | Top | 73-86 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 22 m | Show |
Second Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Oregon and Creighton at 9:40 pm et on Saturday. Oregon's opening round victory over South Carolina didn't have much business getting 'over' the total or certainly not reaching 160 total points. The Ducks actually got off just 47 field goal attempts in that contest while holding South Carolina to 25-of-56 shooting. Oregon quite simply shot the lights out but I think it will be hard-pressed to repeat that performance against Creighton on Saturday. While the Blue Jays are known for their offensive prowess they can play some defense as well. Note that they check in ranked 26th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency this season. Both teams rank around the 200 mark in terms of adjusted tempo so neither team plays exceptionally fast. Note that the 'under' is 24-21 in Oregon's last 45 games following an ATS win including an 8-7 record in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 15-12 in Creighton's last 27 contests following a win by 15 points or more including a 7-6 mark in that spot this season. Take the under (10*). |
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03-23-24 | Kings v. Magic UNDER 216 | 109-107 | Push | 0 | 12 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Sacramento and Orlando at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. The Magic are coming off consecutive 'over' results but I look for a different story to unfold on Saturday. Sacramento has seen the 'under' cash in six of its last seven contests. The Kings have held seven straight opponents to 41 or fewer made field goals. They'll face a challenge against a consistent Magic offense here but Sacramento has been relatively matchup-proof defensively having limited 21 of its last 24 opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. Orlando has held an incredible 13 straight opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals. Like the Kings, the Magic are also limiting their opponents scoring opportunities, giving up 88 or fewer field goal attempts in an incredible 12 straight and 16 of their last 17 games. At home, Orlando should be able to dictate the pace and it has hoisted up 88 or fewer field goal attempts in 31 of its last 33 contests. The 'under' is 41-29 in Sacramento's last 70 games as a road underdog including an 11-7 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 13-4 in Orlando's last 17 contests when seeking revenge for a loss by three points or less against an opponent, as is the case here, including a 6-1 record in that spot this season. Take the under (8*). |
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03-23-24 | Gonzaga v. Kansas UNDER 151.5 | 89-68 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Gonzaga and Kansas at 3:15 pm et on Saturday. I understand the logic behind the high total in this matchup. After all, both teams exploded offensively in the opening round with Gonzaga scoring 86 points in a rout of McNeese State and Kansas putting up 93 points in a narrow escape against Samford. I don't think we'll see that same type of contest on Saturday, however. Kansas ranks 13th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency this season according to KenPom but 61st in adjusted offensive efficiency. It's the reverse for Gonzaga as it ranks eighth in adjusted offensive efficiency but 42nd in adjusted defensive efficiency. All that to say that the 'under' is 24-23 in the Bulldogs last 47 games following an 'over' result including an 8-5 record in that situation this season. The 'under' is also 27-25 in Gonzaga's last 52 contests following a win by 15 points or more including a 7-5 mark in that spot this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 61-35 in Kansas' last 96 games as an underdog including an 8-5 record in that situation over the last three seasons. When playing with one day or less of rest, the Jayhawks have seen the 'under' go 16-8 over the last three seasons including a perfect 4-0 record this season. Take the under (8*). |
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03-22-24 | Pacers v. Warriors UNDER 240 | Top | 123-111 | Win | 100 | 16 h 58 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Indiana and Golden State at 10:10 pm et on Friday. The Pacers aren't the same team they were earlier in the season, playing at a slower pace and doing a much better job defensively. They check in with the 'under' having cashed in 11 of their last 14 games and we'll go that way again as they continue their road trip in San Francisco on Friday. Note that Indiana has held three straight opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals. Only six of its last 17 opponents have managed to get off more than 90 field goal attempts. The Warriors have shot incredibly well over the last three games but are likely to face some resistance here. On the flip side, they've held five of their last six and 20 of their last 25 opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals. Note that the 'under' is 26-21 in the Pacers last 47 games as a road underdog of six points or less including an 8-6 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 9-6 in the Warriors last 15 contests following an ATS win as a double-digit favorite, as is the case here, including a perfect 2-0 record in that spot this season. Take the under (10*). |
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03-21-24 | Drake v. Washington State OVER 138 | 61-66 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Drake and Washington State at 10:05 pm et on Thursday. Washington State enters this tournament off three straight 'under' results but that streak can be easily explained. The Cougars first faced Washington with an inflated total set in the mid-140's off consecutive 'over' results. That game actually surpassed the total we're working with tonight, reaching 142 points. Next they exploded for just shy of 80 points but Stanford wasn't a capable dance partner producing only 62 points in a blowout result (that also still eclipsed the total we're working with here). Finally, Washington State was ousted from the Pac-12 Tournament in a defensive struggle against Colorado (we saw what the Buffaloes are capable of defensively in their win over Boise State in First Four action last night). Drake wants to push the pace and is efficient offensively ranking well inside the country's top-50 in adjusted offensive efficiency according to KenPom. It doesn't have a defense to go along with it, however, as the Bulldogs enter this tourney ranked 72nd in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, having allowed nine of their last 11 opponents to knock down at least 26 field goals. Note that the 'over' is 22-11 in Drake's last 33 games with the total set in the 130's including a 4-2 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 17-14 in Washington State's last 31 contests after allowing 60 points or less in its previous game including a 7-2 record in that spot this season. Take the over (8*). |
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03-21-24 | Nevada v. Dayton OVER 136.5 | 60-63 | Loss | -109 | 20 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Nevada and Dayton at 4:30 pm et on Thursday. This one won't be considered among the potential track meets in the opening round of the tournament but I expect it to get 'over' the reasonable total nonetheless. Nevada enters the tourney riding a six-game 'over' streak. Meanwhile, Dayton had its own six-game 'over' streak snapped in its upset loss against Duquesne in Atlantic-10 Tournament action last week. Neither team plays all that fast but both are ultra-efficient offensively and find ways to put points on the board. I think the matador-like defense of Dayton in particular is worth noting here as it has allowed five of its last seven opponents to get off at least 58 field goal attempts. Nevada's opponents have displayed a rock solid offensive floor, connecting on 23 or more field goals in five of their last six games and more than 20 in 14 of their last 17 contests. Take the over (8*). |
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03-21-24 | Oregon v. South Carolina UNDER 133.5 | 87-73 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Oregon and South Carolina at 4 pm et on Thursday. We'll once again target PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh for a potentially low-scoring affair between Oregon and South Carolina on Thursday afternoon. Keep in mind, the last time this venue hosted NCAA Tournament first and second round action was in 2022 and the six games played here resulted in an average total of just 124.2 points. Oregon sits just inside the country's top-200 in terms of adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom. Meanwhile, South Carolina ranks 354th (out of 362 Division I teams) in the same category. The Ducks certainly ramped up their defensive play down the stretch, holding each of their last four opponents to 23 or fewer made field goals on the way to a Pac-12 Tournament title. The Gamecocks didn't enjoy the same success as they met their demise at the hands of an ultra-athletic Auburn squad in the SEC Tournament. However, South Carolina does check in having held 12 of its last 14 opponents to fewer than 60 field goal attempts. On the season, the Gamecocks rank just three spots outside the country's top-50 in adjusted defensive efficiency. The 'under' is 9-6 in Oregon's last 15 games following consecutive ATS wins including a 3-2 mark in that situation this season. Additionally, the 'under' is 25-12 in South Carolina's last 37 non-conference affairs including a 7-6 record this season. Take the under (8*). |
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03-21-24 | Akron v. Creighton UNDER 141.5 | Top | 60-77 | Win | 100 | 49 h 16 m | Show |
First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Akron and Creighton at 1:30 pm et on Thursday. Creighton tends to carry a reputation as an up-tempo offensive team and bettors are generally quick to support the 'over' in games involving the Blue Jays, especially at this time of year. We've already seen this total get bet up a couple of points and I believe it will prove too high. Pittsburgh's PPG Paints Arena last hosted NCAA Tournament first and second round action in 2022. The six games played in this venue totalled an average of only 124.2 total points with just one of those contests surpassing the total we're working with in this particular contest on Thursday. Akron will certainly have its work cut out for it on Thursday but it does likely come in with a gameplan in mind and that's slowing this game to a crawl. Note that the Zips rank 268th in the country (out of 362 Division I teams) in adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom. They're also inside the top-100 in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency. Considering Akron boasts the 162nd ranked offense (in terms of adjusted offensive efficiency) it doesn't figure to be interested in giving Creighton (and its 12th-ranked offense) any more possessions than it has to. Of note, the Blue Jays actually rank just outside the top-200 in adjusted tempo so it's not as if they're playing at a frenetic pace this season. Yes, they've been ultra-efficient but I do think playing at a larger venue like the one in Pittsburgh serves as an equalizer in a sense. The 'under' is 21-17 in Akron's last 38 games with the total set in the 140's including a 12-5 mark in that situation this season. Additionally, the 'under' is 27-13 in the Zips last 40 contests played on a neutral court as an underdog including a perfect 3-0 mark in that spot this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 29-18 in Creighton's last 47 postseason tournament games including 16-9 in its last 25 NCAA Tournament contests. Take the under (10*). |
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03-20-24 | 76ers v. Suns UNDER 220.5 | 102-115 | Win | 100 | 15 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Phoenix at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. To say there's a low ceiling on the 76ers offense right now would be an understatement. Philadelphia has been held to 41 or fewer made field goals in nine straight and 14 of its last 15 games. The only occasion where it broke through that ceiling was on March 1st at home against the lowly Hornets. On the flip side, the 76ers continue to play tough defense. They've held six straight and 14 of their last 15 opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. Better still, they've limited nine straight foes to 41 or fewer made field goals. The Suns are coming off a bad defensive effort against the Bucks in Milwaukee on Sunday. They are capable of rising to the occasion in that department, however, as they've held nine of their last 14 opponents to 43 or fewer made field goals. The Suns offense while carrying a reputation of playing fast, has gotten off fewer than 90 field goal attempts in two straight and five of their last six games. Note that the 'under' is 36-22 in the Sixers last 58 games as a road underdog including a 9-5 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 35-17 in Phoenix's last 52 contests when seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent including a 10-3 record this season. Take the under (8*). |
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03-20-24 | VCU v. Villanova UNDER 131 | Top | 70-61 | Push | 0 | 26 h 42 m | Show |
NIT Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between VCU and Villanova at 9 pm et on Wednesday. This game is flashing 'under' as two teams that are obviously disappointed to not be playing in the Big Dance match up in NIT action on Wednesday night in Villanova. VCU lost in a slugfest in the Atlantic-10 Championship against Duquesne. The Rams rank outside the top-100 in the country in terms of adjusted offensive efficiency and 302nd in adjusted tempo (both according to KenPom). Where VCU shines of course is at the defensive end of the floor, sitting 43rd in adjusted defensive efficiency. This is a matchup it figures to handle against a Villanova offense that has disappointed, ranking 84th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 350th in adjusted tempo. Only 12 Division I teams have played at a slower pace this season. The Wildcats have been even better than the Rams defensively this season, ranking 13th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency. While there's always the chance we see a late scoring flurry in a game in this pointspread range, I'm willing to take my chances with the 'under'. Take the under (10*). |
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03-19-24 | Wagner v. Howard UNDER 128.5 | 71-68 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Wagner and Howard at 6:40 pm et on Tuesday. This has the potential to be a slugfest between two little-known schools that have everything to play for in Dayton on Tuesday. Wagner ranks 361st (out of 362 Division I schools) in adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom. It got even slower offensively down the stretch, getting off 57, 54 and 49 field goal attempts over its last three contests. Howard wants to play faster but I don't think it will be given much room to breathe in this particular matchup. Note that Wagner checks in having held four straight opponents to 21 or fewer made field goals. The Bison actually played slower down the stretch, getting off 52 or fewer field goal attempts in six of their final 10 games. Limiting scoring opportunities is half the battle and in that regard, Howard has performed well, allowing 54 or fewer field goal attempts in seven of its last 11 contests. Wagner has connected on more than 23 field goals just once in its last eight games. Take the under (8*). |
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03-16-24 | Warriors v. Lakers UNDER 237 | Top | 128-121 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 43 m | Show |
Pacific Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Los Angeles at 8:40 pm et on Saturday. Steph Curry is expected to return for the Warriors on Saturday and they could use the offensive boost as they've been held to 44 or fewer made field goals in eight of their last 11 games. They'll run into a Lakers team that has shown signs of life defensively recently, limiting three straight and four of their last five foes to 46 or fewer made field goals (that's actually progress given the way they had been playing). While the Lakers have been shooting well themselves, they're playing with a relatively small margin for error having gotten off 83 or fewer field goal attempts in four of their last five contests. Meanwhile, Golden State has limited the opposition to 44 or fewer made field goals in six of its last eight games. Note that the 'under' is 27-16 in Golden State's last 43 games played on two days' rest including a 6-3 mark this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 20-17 in the Lakers last 37 contests played in the same situation including a 7-4 record this season. Take the under (10*). |
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03-16-24 | Cavs v. Rockets UNDER 215.5 | 103-117 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Houston at 5:10 pm et on Saturday. The Rockets shot the lights out in their most recent game but that came against the lowly Wizards. They've actually gotten off just 84, 80 and 87 field goal attempts over their last three games and now face a stingy Cavaliers defense that has limited four of its last five opponents to 84 or fewer field goal attempts. Like Houston, Cleveland is also coming off a strong offensive showing last time out against the Pelicans. It has still been held to 40 or fewer made field goals in seven of its last eight contests and 44 or fewer in 15 of its last 18 overall. The Rockets last game snapped a streak of seven straight contests in which they had limited the opposition to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. That was only due to the fact that Washington was desperately trying to get back in the game down big most of the way. Note that the 'under' is 14-12 in Cleveland's last 26 games following a win by 20 points or more, as is the case here, including a 5-3 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 48-45 in Houston's last 93 contests as a home underdog including a 12-6 record this season. Take the under (8*). |
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03-15-24 | Wisconsin v. Northwestern UNDER 137.5 | 70-61 | Win | 100 | 18 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Wisconsin and Northwestern at 2:30 pm et on Friday. Wisconsin exploded for 87 points in yesterday's rout of Maryland. I don't expect it to enjoy the same offensive success on Friday as it draws Northwestern in Big Ten Tournament quarter-final action. Note that the Badgers preferred pace is slow, ranking 307th in the country in adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom. The same goes for the Wildcats, in fact Northwestern checks in 342nd (out of 362 Division I teams) in adjusted tempo. While the Badgers offense has been ultra-efficient, this will be the Wildcats second time seeing them this season after holding them to just 44 field goal attempts in the first matchup back in January. Wisconsin shot the lights out in that game but the final score still reached 'only' 134 total points. You would have to go back four meetings in this series to find the last time a contest totalled more than 134 points. The defense tends to ratchet up as this tournament goes. Case in point, last year's quarter-final round saw the four games total 135, 126, 132 (overtime game) and 130 points. Take the under (8*). |
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03-14-24 | Xavier v. Connecticut UNDER 150 | 60-87 | Win | 100 | 5 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Xavier and Connecticut at 12 noon et on Thursday. Xavier was able to play at its preferred pace in yesterday's win over Butler, hoisting up a whopping 67 field goal attempts in the 76-72 victory. The Musketeers aren't likely to enjoy the same offensive success against top-seed Connecticut on Thursday. The Huskies rank 12th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency this season according to KenPom. Also note that UConn checks in 332nd in adjusted tempo. The last time these two teams met the Huskies rolled to a 99-56 victory on January 28th. You can be sure Xavier hasn't forgotten that beatdown and will likely be a little more interested in grinding this rematch out and effectively shortening proceedings, keeping in mind UConn also ranks third in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency. While you wouldn't know it by yesterday's performance, the Musketeers rank inside the top-50 in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency. Take the under (8*). |
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03-13-24 | Nets v. Magic UNDER 206 | Top | 106-114 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Brooklyn and Orlando at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. This game pits two teams that have had a tough enough time just getting shots off let alone knocking them down lately. The Nets have been held to 84 or fewer field goal attempts in four of their last five games. You would have to go back seven contests to find the last time they connected on more than 42 field goals. In fact, they've been limited to 42 or fewer made field goals in 14 of their last 17 games. They don't figure to get any sort of break here as the Magic, while struggling to find wins lately, have continued to play tough defense. Orlando checks in having held an incredible seven straight foes to 40 or fewer made field goals and 10 of its last 11 to 41 or fewer. The Magic have allowed more than 80 field goal attempts just twice in their last seven contests. On the flip side, Orlando has knocked down 44 or fewer field goals in 10 straight and 12 of its last 13 games overall. Last time out the Magic broke a streak of six straight games in which they had hoisted up 81 or fewer field goal attempts. The 'under' is 66-45 in Brooklyn's last 111 games when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent, as is the case here, including a 21-12 record in that situation this season. The Nets have also seen the 'under' go 16-10 in their last 26 contests following a double-digit road win including a 3-1 mark in that spot this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 9-5 in the Magic's last 14 contests with the total set between 200 and 209.5 points including a perfect 3-0 record this season. Finally, the 'under' is 44-35 in Orlando's last 79 games following consecutive losses including an 8-4 mark this season. Take the under (10*). |
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03-12-24 | Gonzaga v. St. Mary's UNDER 139.5 | Top | 60-69 | Win | 100 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
West Coast Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Gonzaga and St. Mary's at 9 pm et on Tuesday. The 'under' has cashed in the last three meetings in this rivalry series going back to last year's WCC Tournament championship game. I expect more of the same on Tuesday. We know what St. Mary's approach to this game will be. The Gaels will look to slow the pace to a crawl, noting that they rank 358th (out of 362 Division I teams) in terms of adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom. St. Mary's enters this contest having held 25 of its last 29 opponents to 56 or fewer field goal attempts. Gonzaga enters on an offensive tear but it's not as if the Bulldogs are really pushing the pace. They've gotten off 61 or fewer field goal attempts in four straight games including 58 against St. Mary's on March 2nd. Note that the 'under' is 7-5 with Gonzaga coming off an 'over' result this season, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 10-4 in St. Mary's last 14 games when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent including a 3-1 mark in that situation this season. Take the under (10*). |
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03-10-24 | Wizards v. Heat UNDER 229 | Top | 110-108 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
Southeast Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and Miami at 6:10 pm et on Sunday. The Heat enter this game off consecutive 'under' results but that's not of major concern noting they've had five previous 'under' streaks last longer. While Miami has dropped back-to-back games it remains in excellent form defensively. The Heat have held an incredible 15 of their last 16 opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals. Meanwhile, the Wizards check in having knocked down 43 or fewer field goals in three straight and six of their last nine contests. On the flip side, Miami isn't likely to push the pace, even against a matador-like Wizards defense. the Heat have hoisted up 88 or fewer field goal attempts in 10 straight and 19 of their last 22 games. They've connected on more than 42 field goals just once in their last six contests. Note that the 'under' is 45-38 in Washington's last 83 games played with double-revenge including a 17-15 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 27-24 in Miami's last 51 home games with the total set at 220 points or higher including a 12-9 record in that spot this season. Take the under (10*). |
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03-08-24 | South Dakota v. Oral Roberts UNDER 153.5 | Top | 62-77 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
Summit League Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between South Dakota and Oral Roberts at 8 pm et on Friday. I think 'over' bettors may be trying to fit a square peg into a round hole in this particular matchup on Friday. While both teams have struggled defensively all season long, I'm not sure either team is capable of taking advantage offensively. South Dakota has drawn every bit of efficiency out of its offense down the stretch, connecting on 27 or more field goals in eight of its last nine games but it is playing with a relatively small margin for error having gotten off fewer than 60 field goal attempts in five of its last six games. It runs into an Oral Roberts squad that did play some of its best defensive basketball of the season down the stretch, limiting four of its last five foes to 26 or fewer made field goals. You would have to go back five games to find the last time the Golden Eagles allowed an opponent to get off more than 60 field goal attempts. In two regular season meetings we saw both teams hoist up at least 60 field goal attempts in both matchups yet those two games stayed 'under' the total. The 'under' is 26-20 in South Dakota's last 46 tournament games. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 43-32 in Oral Roberts last 75 tournament contests including a 6-2 mark over the last three seasons. Additionally, the 'under' is 28-13 ATS in the Golden Eagles last 41 games following an ATS loss, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). |
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03-07-24 | Heat v. Mavs UNDER 231.5 | Top | 108-114 | Win | 100 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Dallas at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. The Heat have seen the 'over' cash in each of their last two games while the Mavericks are coming off a wild, high-scoring affair against the Pacers two nights ago. I expect a different story to unfold as these non-conference foes match up on Thursday in Dallas. Miami has held an incredible 13 of its last 14 opponents to 42 made field goals or less. In fact, the Heat have limited three of their last four opponents to fewer than 40 successful field goal attempts. You would have to go back six games to find the last time Miami allowed an opponent to get off 90 or more field goal attempts. On the flip side, the Heat have connected on at least 46 field goals just twice since December 6th. They've gone eight straight games without hoisting up 90 or more field goal attempts. We know what the Mavs are all about and that's offense. With that said, they've made good on 45 of fewer field goals in three straight and five of their last seven contests. On the flip side, Dallas has struggled defensively this season. However, it has generally bounced back following exceptionally poor performances and that's the situation it is in on Thursday after allowing Indiana to make good on 50 field goals last time out. On five previous occasions this season, the Mavs have yielded at least 50 made field goals and in their next contest they've held the opposition to an average of just 43.6 with the 'under' going 3-2. Note that the 'under' is 30-21 in the Heat's last 51 road games with the total set at 220 points or higher and 19-14 in their last 33 contests following consecutive home wins, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' is a long-term 65-54 with the Mavs playing at home and 9-7 in their last 16 contests after allowing 135 points or more in their previous game. Take the under (10*). |
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03-06-24 | Grizzlies v. 76ers UNDER 209.5 | 115-109 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Memphis and Philadelphia at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. I'm not sure they can set the total low enough in this non-conference matchup on Wednesday. Both teams are actually coming off 'over' results, oddly enough both of those games came against the Nets. With that being said, those contests totalled just 208 and 219 points, respectively so it's not as if we're talking about track meets. Memphis checks in having held three of its last four opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals and seven of its last nine foes to 42 or less. Philadelphia seems to have realized that it's not going to enjoy much success by pushing the pace, not with its current healthy personnel. The 76ers have gotten off just 88 and 82 field goal attempts over their last two games. Note that they've connected on 41 or fewer field goals in seven of their last eight contests. On the flip side, we have seen the Sixers lock-in defensively, holding eight straight and 10 of their last 11 opponents to 43 or fewer made field goals. Part of that success comes from slowing the pace as I mentioned. Philadelphia has limited seven consecutive opponents to 86 or fewer field goal attempts. The undermanned Grizzlies don't figure to offer a stiff test in that regard as they've hoisted up 83 or fewer field goal attempts in four of their last five contests. Note that the 'under' is 21-18 in the Grizzlies last 39 games as a road underdog of six points or less and 41-25 in their last 66 contests after holding their previous opponent to 105 points or less, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 14-5 in Philadelphia's last 19 games with the total set between 200 and 209.5 points, which is the case at the time of writing, and 62-44 in its last 106 contests following an upset loss on the road. Take the under (8*). |
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03-06-24 | Boston College v. Miami-FL OVER 151.5 | Top | 67-57 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 0 m | Show |
ACC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Boston College and Miami at 7 pm et on Wednesday. Miami has inexplicably been idle since a week ago Monday, when it dropped a 75-71 decision on the road against North Carolina - its seventh straight defeat. Boston College enters on the heels of four straight losses but it has been making 'over' bettors happy with each of its last six contests sailing 'over' the total. I look for more of the same on Wednesday. While the Miami offense has struggled lately, it does continue to push the pace, hoisting up more than 60 field goal attempts in three straight games. The Hurricanes rank 112th in the country in adjusted tempo according to KenPom this season. Going up against Boston College's matador-like defense should serve Miami well in this spot. The Eagles have allowed eight of their last nine opponents to make good on at least 27 field goals. Boston College ranks 173rd in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency this season according to KenPom, not good for a Power-5 program. On the flip side, the Eagles have been fairly consistent offensively, making good on 25 or more field goals in five of their last six games with a low-water mark of 24 made field goals over their last nine contests. Miami, like Boston College, has struggled defensively allowing its last four opponents to connect on 28, 28, 30 and 27 field goals. Note that the 'over' is 19-12 in Boston College's last 31 games as a road underdog and 16-6 in its last 22 contests when coming off a game that totalled 155 points or more, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 27-15 in Miami's last 42 games as a home favorite and 7-5 in its last 12 contests following a road loss in-conference. Take the over (10*). |
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03-05-24 | San Diego State v. UNLV UNDER 136 | 58-62 | Win | 100 | 27 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Diego State and UNLV at 11 pm et on Tuesday. The first meeting between these two teams this season totalled just 133 points and I believe they'll be hard-pressed to top that number in Tuesday's rematch. UNLV is quietly playing as well defensively as any team in the country right now having held five straight opponents to 21 or fewer made field goals and nine in a row to 23 or less. This matchup is right back in the Runnin' Rebels wheelhouse as San Diego State ranks 240th in the country in adjusted tempo according to KenPom and its strength lies at the defensive end of the floor rather than on offense. The Aztecs are actually coming off a subpar defensive effort against lowly San Jose State last time out. They've had a week to stew on that performance and I'm confident we'll see their eighth ranked (in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency) defense step up again here. We've seen San Diego State hold a pair of opponents to fewer than 20 made field goals in its last five games. On the flip side, UNLV is one of the slowest teams in the country, ranking 302nd in adjusted tempo. Note that the 'under' is 33-16 in the Aztecs last 49 games with the total set in the 140's, including a 7-4 mark in that situation this season. The 'under' is also 32-21 in their last 53 contests following consecutive victories, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 46-40 in UNLV's last 86 games when seeking revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent including a 3-1 record in that spot this season. Take the under (8*). |
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03-05-24 | Pelicans v. Raptors OVER 228 | 139-98 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New Orleans and Toronto at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday. I see this as a blow-up spot for the Pelicans offense as they come in with fresh legs having not played since Friday (they barely broke a sweat and scored 129 points in that win over Indiana) and facing a depleted Raptors squad. With that being said, the Pelicans do have a tendency to let teams stick around on the road and I think there's reason to believe the Raptors can help this total along. Toronto has allowed its last five opponents to knock down 46, 46, 52, 44 and 43 field goals. Each of those five foes managed to hoist up at least 92 field goal attempts. The Pelicans don't play particularly fast but I don't think they'll be able to resist the temptation to push the pace in this matchup (note they attempted 104 field goals in the first meeting this season, scoring 138 points). New Orleans has allowed three of its last four opponents to get off at least 95 field goal attempts so the scoring opportunities should be there for Toronto. The Raptors have at least been consistent offensively, connecting on 41 or more field goals in seven straight games. They certainly don't mind pushing the pace, hoisting up more than 90 field goal attempts in seven of their last eight contests. Note that the 'over' is a perfect 3-0 with the Pelicans playing on three or more days' rest this season and 4-1 in their last five contests following five or more consecutive 'under' results, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 3-1 in the Raptors last four games when seeking revenge for a loss by 30 or more points against an opponent. Take the over (8*). |
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03-04-24 | Thunder v. Lakers OVER 238.5 | 104-116 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Oklahoma City and Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Monday. You would be hard-pressed to find a team playing worse defensive basketball than the Lakers right now. I'm not just talking about the short-term picture either - this has been going on for months. Los Angeles checks in having allowed nine of its last 11 and 14 of its last 18 opponents to knock down at least 45 field goals. The Lakers have been giving up scoring opportunities aplenty with seven of their last eight and 14 of their last 16 foes hoisting up at least 92 field goal attempts. Oklahoma City figures to apply plenty of pressure on Monday, noting the Thunder have knocked down 44 or more field goals in eight straight games. On the flip side, Oklahoma City has 10 straight and 13 of its last 14 opponents to get off at least 90 field goal attempts. While the Lakers defense has struggled their offense has not, connecting on 47 or more field goals in five straight games. You would have to go back 10 games to find the last time the Lakers were held to fewer than 43 made field goals. Note that the 'over' is 21-13 in the Thunder's last 34 games played on the second of back-to-back nights including a 7-2 mark in that situation this season. They've also seen the 'over' go 43-39 in their last 82 contests played with double-revenge, as is the case here, including a 6-2 record in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 66-53 in the Lakers last 119 contests following a loss including a 16-11 mark this season. Take the over (8*). |
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03-02-24 | Rockets v. Suns OVER 228.5 | Top | 118-109 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 35 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Phoenix at 9:10 pm et on Saturday. |
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03-02-24 | NC State v. North Carolina OVER 153.5 | Top | 70-79 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 59 m | Show |
ACC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between North Carolina State and North Carolina at 4 pm et on Saturday. Including the first meeting this season we've now seen three straight matchups in this rivalry stay 'under' the total. Going back to the turn of the century we've seen a four-game 'under' streak in this series only once - that coming back in 2017. I'm anticipating a considerably higher-scoring affair on Saturday. The Wolfpack were not playing well offensively the last time these two teams matched up. In fact, N.C. State was mired in a shooting slump that saw it connect on fewer than 20 field goals in two of three games. It's a much different story this time around. N.C. State has connected on 26 or more field goals in eight straight games. There's reason to believe the Wolfpack will be afforded plenty of scoring opportunities in this contest as North Carolina has allowed seven of its last eight foes to hoist up more than 60 field goal attempts. On the flip side, the Wolfpack have been getting boat raced defensively in recent weeks. They've allowed 29, 27, 30, 25 and 37 made field goals over their last five contests. North Carolina checks in top-25 in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and 38th in adjusted tempo, both according to KenPom. Note that the 'over' is 6-1 in N.C. State's last seven games when seeking revenge for a loss in which it scored 60 points or less, as is the case here, including a perfect 2-0 mark in that situation this season. The 'over' is also 30-23 in the Wolfpack's last 53 contests following an ATS defeat. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 62-47 in North Carolina's last 109 games following a win by six points or less including a 5-3 record in that situation over the last three seasons. The 'over' is also 26-20 in the Tar Heels last 46 games following an ATS loss including a 6-4 mark this season. Take the over (10*). |
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03-02-24 | Kansas v. Baylor UNDER 145.5 | 74-82 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Kansas and Baylor at 1 pm et on Saturday. This has predominantly been a low-scoring series with the 'under' going 17-5 in the last 22 meetings including a 64-61 Kansas victory in the first matchup this season. Despite coming off a stunning home loss against BYU, the Jayhawks have shown signs of rounding into late season form defensively, holding six of their last eight opponents to 25 or fewer made field goals and three of those foes to fewer than 20. Kansas has climbed to ninth in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom. While it generally plays at a fast pace, I do think we'll see it attempt to effectively shorten proceedings on Saturday as a road underdog against revenge-minded Baylor. The Bears have had their share of breakout performances offensively but in general, remain a work-in-progress at that end of the floor where they've connected on 25 or fewer field goals in seven of their last nine contests. Note that Baylor ranks 296th in the country in adjusted tempo according to KenPom and has gotten off 56 or fewer field goal attempts in nine straight games. Defensively, the Bears are coming off arguably their best performance of the season as they held TCU to just 17 made field goals in a 62-54 victory. Note that the 'under' is 10-5 in Kansas' last 15 games following a loss in-conference including a 4-1 mark in that situation this season. The 'under' is also a long-term 33-29 in the Jayhawks last 62 contests with the total set in the 140's including a 12-9 record in that spot this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 11-5 in Baylor's last 16 games when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent including a perfect 4-0 mark this season. The 'under' is also 19-14 in the Bears last 33 games following a win in-conference including a 6-2 record this season. Take the under (8*). |
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03-01-24 | Fresno State v. Nevada UNDER 137.5 | Top | 66-74 | Loss | -115 | 27 h 42 m | Show |
Mountain West Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Fresno State and Nevada at 10:30 pm et on Friday. Fresno State's most recent game went 'over' the total but that was only thanks to overtime. The Bulldogs haven't seen consecutive games go 'over' since a five-game streak from January 16th to 30th. Note that they held an up-tempo Utah State team to just 47 field goal attempts in regulation time last time out. In fact, they've limited three of their last four opponents to 51 or fewer field goal attempts. While the Aggies did get their fair share of opportunities at the free throw line in Wednesday's contest, Fresno State is actually allowing just 16 free throw attempts per game this season so it's not really a recurring theme. While the Bulldogs did get loose a bit offensively against Utah State, it faces a tougher challenge on Friday with Nevada ranked 37th in adjusted defensive efficiency and 245th in adjusted tempo this season (both according to KenPom). The Wolf Pack have held seven of their last eight opponents to 25 or fewer made field goals. Fresno State has knocked down just 23 field goals per game on the road this season. As I mentioned, Nevada's preferred pace is slow, noting that it hasn't hoisted up 60 or more field goal attempts in a game since February 2nd against a matador-like defense in San Jose State. The 'under' is 10-8 in Fresno State's last 18 games when seeking revenge for a loss in which it scored 60 points or less against an opponent, as is the case here, including a 4-2 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 23-18 in Nevada's last 41 contests following an 'over' result including a 7-3 record in that situation this season. The 'under' is also a long-term 50-39 in Nevada's last 89 games after scoring 75 points or more in three straight games. Take the under (10*). |
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02-29-24 | Gonzaga v. San Francisco UNDER 155.5 | 86-68 | Win | 100 | 29 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Gonzaga and San Francisco at 11 pm et on Thursday. The 'under' has cashed in three of four meetings between these two teams going back to the start of last season including the lone previous matchup this year. With this game being played at the Chase Center in San Francisco, I'm anticipating a lower-scoring contest than most. San Francisco has played just once previously on this court this season, securing a 76-58 win over Minnesota back in November. The Golden Gophers had a miserable time trying to break through against the Dons defense in that game, connecting on just 22-of-50 field goal attempts. Note that San Francisco ranks 42nd in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency this season (according to KenPom). The Dons also check in just 202nd in adjusted tempo. They're certainly locked-in defensively right now having held three straight opponents to 22 or fewer made field goals and eight of their last nine foes to 25 or fewer. Gonzaga obviously likes to play much faster and is currently on an incredible offensive tear. With that being said, there shouldn't be any intimidation factor at play here as San Francisco has held it to just 27 and 24 made field goals in the last two meetings. Note that the 'under' is 15-13 in Gonzaga's last 28 games played on a neutral court including a 4-1 mark this season. The 'under' is also 12-7 in the Zags last 19 games following consecutive double-digit wins over conference opponents, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 14-4 in San Francisco's last 18 contests played on a neutral court including a 3-1 mark this season. The 'under' is also 13-8 in the Dons last 21 games after a home win in which they scored 85 points or more. Take the under (8*). |
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02-29-24 | Hawks v. Nets UNDER 223.5 | 97-124 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Brooklyn at 7:40 pm et on Thursday. The Hawks enter this game riding a four-game 'under' streak while the Nets have seen each of their last five contests stay 'under' the total. I look for those streaks to continue on Thursday. Atlanta is obviously a different team without Trae Young. In two games since his injury, the Hawks have actually knocked down 41 and 46 field goals but got off 90 or more field goal attempts in both of those contests. It's defensively where Atlanta has really turned it up, allowing just 35 made field goals in each of its last two games. The Hawks catch a plum draw here with the Nets reeling offensively. Brooklyn has knocked down fewer than 40 field goals in five of its last six games and 41 or less in eight of its last 10 contests. In fact, it's been a struggle for the Nets just getting shots off let alone knocking them down. They check in having hoisted up 81 or fewer field goal attempts in four of their last six games. With that being said, Brooklyn has at least been slowing the opposition, allowing 84 or fewer field goal attempts in four straight games. Meanwhile, the Hawks aren't quite the same offensive team on the road compared to at home. They have made good on 40, 42, 40, 36, 39, 43, 42 and 36 field goals over their last eight road contests. The 'under' is 17-15 in the Hawks last 32 games following a double-digit home win including a 3-1 mark in that situation this season. Brooklyn has seen the 'under' go 12-9 in its last 21 contests following a loss by 20 points or more including a 5-2 record in that spot this season. Take the under (8*). |
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02-28-24 | Lakers v. Clippers OVER 235.5 | Top | 116-112 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 21 m | Show |
Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between the Lakers and Clippers at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. Opponents are walking all over the Lakers right now, getting off 93 or more field goal attempts in each of their last five and 12 of their last 13 games overall. The Clippers should be salivating at the opportunity for an offensive breakout here after being held to 42 or fewer made field goals in six of their last seven games. Paul George won't be in the lineup for the Clips on Wednesday but I still expect them to thrive offensively against a Lakers squad that has been lit up for 44 or more made field goals in 12 of its last 15 games. On the flip side, the Lakers have connected on more than 40 field goals in eight straight games and 47 or more in five of those contests. The Clippers have surprisingly been matador-like defensively in recent weeks, allowing four straight and 12 of their last 16 opponents to hoist up at least 90 field goal attempts. Note that the 'over' is 35-17 in the Lakers last 52 road games with the total set at 230 points or higher including a crisp 15-3 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 32-25 in the Clippers last 57 contests following an upset loss against a division opponent, as is the case here, including a 4-1 record in that situation over the last three seasons. Take the over (10*). |
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02-28-24 | Cavs v. Bulls UNDER 216.5 | 123-132 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Cavaliers were involved in a high-scoring barn-burner at home against the Mavericks last night, securing a 121-119 victory thanks to a last season Max Strus heave. It wasn't a banner performance defensively from Cleveland but there's reason to believe we'll see it bounce back in that regard on Wednesday. Note that last night marked only the 11th time all season the Cavs allowed an opponent to knock down 45 or more field goals. On the 10 previous occasions, they allowed an average of just 37.5 made field goals in their next contest. The Bulls aren't exactly thriving offensively right now as they've connected on 40 or fewer field goals in three of their last four games. In fact, it's been tough enough for them to just get shots off let alone knock them down, hoisting up 83 or fewer field goal attempts in three of their last four contests. On the flip side, Chicago does check in having held eight of its last 10 foes to 42 or fewer made field goals. You would have to go back five games to find the last time the Bulls allowed an opponent to get off more than 88 field goal attempts. Meanwhile, the Cavs have knocked down 44 or fewer field goals in six straight contests. The 'under' is 59-51 in the Cavs last 110 road games including a 17-10 mark this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 31-16 in the Bulls last 47 division games including a 7-4 record this season. Take the under (8*). |
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02-27-24 | Nevada v. Colorado State UNDER 139.5 | Top | 77-74 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 46 m | Show |
Mountain West Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Nevada and Colorado State at 11:30 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a considerably higher posted total the last time these two teams met on January 24th. That game ultimately stayed 'under' that number but did go higher than the total we're working with on Tuesday. I still don't feel the oddsmakers have made enough of an adjustment. Nevada saw its last game go 'over' the total thanks to an offensive outburst against a miserable San Jose State defense. Note that the Wolf Pack are locked-in defensively right now having held three straight and five of their last six opponents to 23 or fewer made field goals. Colorado State doesn't figure to push the pace on Nevada, noting that the Rams rank 271st in the country in adjusted tempo this season (according to KenPom). Speaking of being locked-in defensively, the Rams have climbed into the top-25 in adjusted defensive efficiency (also according to KenPom) thanks to a stretch that has seen them limit seven straight foes to 24 or fewer made field goals. Nevada checks in just 241st in adjusted tempo and has hoisted up 58 or fewer field goal attempts in six straight contests, reaching 52 or less in half of those games. Note that the 'under' is 6-1 in Nevada's last seven games as a road underdog of between 6.5 and 9.0 points including a 2-0 mark in that situation this season. The 'under' is also 9-5 in the Wolf Pack's last 14 contests following a double-digit win over a conference foe including a 5-1 record in that spot this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 23-10 in Colorado State's last 33 games with the total set in the 130's, as is the case here at the time of writing. The Rams have also seen the 'under' go 14-5 in their last 19 contests when seeking revenge for a loss in which their opponent scored 75 points or more including a 5-2 mark in that situation this season. Take the under (10*). |
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02-26-24 | Pistons v. Knicks UNDER 224 | Top | 111-113 | Push | 0 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and New York at 7:40 pm et on Monday. The Pistons have seen the 'under' cash in each of their last five games while the Knicks ride a two-game 'under' streak into Monday's contest. Both teams are coming off losses on Saturday with Detroit falling on a last-second shot against Orlando and New York suffering a blowout loss at the hands of Boston. I'm anticipating another relatively low-scoring affair on Monday at the Garden. Detroit has shot about as well as you could expect in two games since the All-Star break, making good on 47 and 43 field goals in losses against the Pacers and Magic. It still scored 'only' 115 and 109 points in those two contests. Note that the Pistons haven't produced 109 or more points in three straight games since January 28th to February 2nd. On the flip side, Detroit has limited five straight and eight of its last 10 opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. The Knicks don't figure to test that streak, noting that they've hoisted up just 84, 79 and 82 field goal attempts in their last three contests. In fact, they've gotten off fewer than 90 field goal attempts in 22 of their last 28 games. On the flip side, the Knicks have held an incredible eight straight opponents to 84 or fewer field goal attempts. While the opposition has shot well against New York in recent weeks, I believe Detroit is better-suited for volume-shooting success but I don't see it accomplishing that against the slow-paced Knicks on Monday. Note that the 'under' is 26-20 in the Pistons last 46 games following five straight 'under' results and 10-7 in their last 17 contests after suffering a loss by three points or less, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 40-24 in New York's last 64 games following consecutive 'under' results including a 14-6 mark in that situation this season. The 'under' is also 25-22 in the Knicks last 47 contests following a double-digit loss including a 5-4 record in that situation this season. Take the under (10*). |
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02-26-24 | Coppin State v. Howard UNDER 138.5 | 69-78 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 3 m | Show | |
MEAC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Coppin State and Howard at 7:30 pm et on Monday. When these two teams met on January 29th they combined to score 147 points as Howard won in a 15-point rout. Note that they combined to knock down a whopping 43 free throws in that contest. To compare, last year's two meetings saw a grand total of just 50 made free throws and the two teams average only 29 made free throws per game combined this season. Coppin State rides an eight-game losing streak into this game. It hasn't made it easy on the opposition lately, however, holding four straight foes to 55 or fewer field goal attempts. In fact, it has limited six of its last seven opponents to 26 or fewer made field goals. On the flip side, the Coppin State offense has been dreadful. It ranks 361st (out of 362 Division I teams) nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency according to KenPom. The Eagles have made good on 21 or fewer field goals in five of their last seven games. Howard remains incredibly stingy defensively, holding three of its last four opponents to 51 or fewer field goal attempts and 11 of its last 12 foes to 58 or fewer. The Bison offense isn't going to set the world on fire, knocking down 26 or fewer field goals in 11 of its last 12 contests. Howard has hoisted up 57 or fewer field goal attempts in 12 of its last 13 games overall. Note that the 'under' is 8-5 in Coppin State's last 13 games when seeking revenge for a same season loss against an opponent. The 'under' is also 7-2 in the Eagles last nine contests following a home loss by three points or less, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 25-20 in Howard's last 45 games as a favorite including an 8-5 record in that situation this season. The 'under' is also 21-11 in the Bison's last 32 games following a victory by six points or less. Take the under (10*). |
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02-25-24 | Quinnipiac v. Rider UNDER 153 | 78-88 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Quinnipiac and Rider at 2 pm et on Sunday. Both of these teams are coming off relatively high-scoring affairs on Friday but I look for a different story to unfold on Sunday afternoon. Quinnipiac is reeling off three straight losses - its longest losing streak of the season. On a positive note, it has done a slightly better job defensively in recent weeks, holding six straight opponents to 61 or fewer field goal attempts. In fact, the Bobcats have limited three of their last five foes to 23 or fewer made field goals. Rider may be known for its offense but it hasn't been playing at all that fast of a pace lately, getting off 56 or fewer field goal attempts in five straight games. The Broncs will be looking to extend their three-game winning streak and after dropping a wild, high-scoring 88-84 decision on the road against the Bobcats back in early January, I'm not convinced they'll be interested in a track meet again here. Note that the 'over' has cashed in the last two meetings in this series and that matches the longest such streak over the course of 23 all-time matchups between these two teams. The last time we saw consecutive 'over' results in this series the next matchup reached just 138 total points. The 'under' is 17-10 in Quinnipiac's last 27 games following three straight losses in-conference including a 5-1 mark over the last three seasons. The 'under' is also 7-4 in the Bobcats last 11 contests after allowing 85 points in their previous game, as is the case here, including a 4-1 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 18-13 in Rider's last 31 games following a home victory by three points or less including a 5-1 record in that situation over the last three seasons (1-0 this season). Additionally, the 'under' is 25-20 in the Broncs last 45 home games with the total set in the 150's. Take the under (8*). |
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02-24-24 | Grambling State v. Southern UNDER 133 | Top | 63-57 | Win | 100 | 21 h 33 m | Show |
SWAC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Grambling and Southern at 6:30 pm et on Saturday. These two teams met back on January 20th and combined to score 141 points in a double-digit Grambling victory. I expect a lower-scoring affair in Saturday's rematch. Note that Grambling has quietly held 11 of its last 13 opponents to 24 or fewer made field goals. The Tigers rank 310th in the country in adjusted tempo according to KenPom. Southern has gotten off 54 or fewer field goal attempts in seven straight games. The Jaguars have made good on 23 or fewer field goals in three of their last four contests. On the flip side, they've arguably been even better than the Tigers defensively in recent weeks. Southern has limited an incredible nine straight opponents to 23 or fewer made field goals. You would have to go back 13 games to find the last time a Southern opponent hoisted up more than 53 field goal attempts. Note that the 'under' is 8-4 in Grambling's last 12 road games with the total set between 130 and 139.5 points including a perfect 4-0 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 15-10 in Southern's last 25 home games including a perfect 7-0 this season. Take the under (10*). |
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02-23-24 | Bucks v. Wolves UNDER 225.5 | Top | 112-107 | Win | 100 | 15 h 16 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and Minnesota at 10:10 pm et on Friday. This is undoubtedly a game the Bucks have had circled on their calendar since getting throttled 129-105 on their home floor on February 8th. The Timberwolves shot the lights out in that game but I'm not anticipating a repeat performance here. While the Bucks have struggled to find the win column lately, they've continued to do a good job of limiting opposing offenses, holding six of their last eight opponents to 87 or fewer field goal attempts. Minnesota isn't a team that's going to push the pace on them, noting the T'Wolves have hoisted up fewer than 90 field goal attempts in 14 of their last 18 games. On the flip side, you'd be hard-pressed to find a team that was as locked-in defensively as the T'Wolves prior to the All-Star break. They enter this game having limited four straight and an incredible 19 of their last 25 opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals. In fact, Minnesota is allowing just 37 made field goals per contest at home this season. The 'over' has now cashed in consecutive meetings in this series but we haven't seen three straight 'over' results since way back in 2006. The 'under' is 28-14 in Milwaukee's last 42 games as a road underdog and 12-7 in its last 19 contests when seeking revenge for a double-digit home loss against an opponent. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 32-19 in the T'Wolves last 51 home contests with the total set between 220 and 229.5 and 7-3 in their last 10 games played on three or more days' rest. Take the under (10*). |
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02-22-24 | Washington State v. Arizona UNDER 151 | Top | 77-74 | Push | 0 | 14 h 51 m | Show |
Pac-12 Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Washington State and Arizona at 11 pm et on Thursday. Washington State has broken into the top-25 for the first time in an eternity and now it draws a difficult road test against a revenge-minded Arizona squad in Tucson on Thursday. The first meeting between these teams ended 73-70 in favor of the Cougars, cruising 'under' the total. In fact, the 'under' has cashed in five straight meetings in this series. Washington State enters this game locked-in defensively having held four straight and five of its last six opponents to 22 or fewer made field goals. Note that it limited Arizona to just 25 made field goals despite yielding 72 field goal attempts back on January 13th. The Wildcats are on a tear offensively but they've also faced mostly up-tempo opponents over the last few weeks. Note that Washington State ranks 310th in the country in adjusted tempo according to KenPom and will almost certainly look to slow this game down and effectively shorten proceedings as a double-digit underdog on Thursday. While Arizona is known for its offensive prowess, it can play some defense as well, checking in ranked 11th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom. The Wildcats have held eight of their last 10 opponents to 26 or fewer made field goals. Washington State has made good on 25 or fewer field goals in three of its last four contests. Note that the 'under' is a long-term 41-19 with the Cougars coming off consecutive wins by 10 points or more, as is the case here. The 'under' is also 18-12 in their last 30 games as an underdog including a 5-2 mark this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 9-7 in Arizona's last 16 games following three straight 'over' results, including 2-0 in that situation this season. The 'under' is also 10-5 in the Wildcats last 15 games when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent including 1-0 this season. Take the under (10*). |
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02-22-24 | Lakers v. Warriors OVER 243 | 110-128 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Golden State at 10 pm et on Thursday. The Lakers won't have the services of Lebron James on Thursday night in San Francisco but they didn't last time out either and still defeated the Jazz by a 138-122 score, on the road no less. I don't think they mind being volume shooters one bit and the Warriors figure to afford them the opportunity to do so on Thursday. Note that Golden State has allowed 92 or more field goal attempts in four of its last six games. With that being said, the Warriors have done a fairly good job defensively but their opposition has displayed a solid scoring floor, making good on 43, 41, 44 and 43 field goals over their last four games. On the flip side, Golden State has been red hot offensively, knocking down 45 or more field goals in six straight and 13 of its last 16 games overall. Not only that but the Warriors have been pushing the pace, hoisting up 92 or more field goal attempts in nine straight contests. Meanwhile, the Lakers have been matador-like defensively, allowing five straight and 10 of their last 12 foes to make good on 45 or more field goals. They've also allowed nine of their last 10 opponents to hoist up at least 96 field goal attempts. The 'over' is 54-30 in the Lakers last 84 games as a road underdog including a 13-5 mark this season. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 16-10 in the Warriors last 26 games when seeking revenge for a home loss against an opponent, as is the case here, including 7-1 this season. Take the over (8*). |
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02-22-24 | Rockets v. Pelicans UNDER 229.5 | Top | 105-127 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 0 m | Show |
Southwest Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and New Orleans at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams went into the All-Star break off 'over' results but I expect a different story to unfold as they match up for the fourth time this season on Thursday in New Orleans. Note that the three previous meetings in this series this season totalled just 205, 210 and 209 points. The Rockets had a recent stretch where they connected on 50 or more field goals in six of 11 games but have since cooled off, making good on 44 or fewer field goals in four straight contests prior to the break. Defensively, Houston has quietly been locked-in, limiting nine of its last 11 opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals. While the Rockets have continued to give up their share of scoring opportunities, the Pelicans don't figure to push the pace, noting that New Orleans has hoisted up fewer than 90 field goal attempts in five straight games. The Pelicans did make good on 50 field goals in their most recent game against the lowly Wizards but have been held to 46 or fewer made field goals in 13 of their last 16 games overall. Like the Rockets, the Pelicans have been terrific defensively in recent weeks, holding seven of their last nine foes to 88 or fewer field goal attempts and a rock-steady 27 of their last 32 opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals. Note that the 'under' is 51-44 in the Rockets last 95 games when seeking revenge for a same season loss against an opponent including a 10-4 mark this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 60-40 in New Orleans' last 100 contests following an 'over' result including 19-6 this season. Take the under (10*). |
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02-21-24 | UNLV v. Air Force UNDER 133.5 | 72-43 | Win | 100 | 15 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between UNLV and Air Force at 11 pm et on Wednesday. The first matchup between these two teams this season was no contest as Air Force came up with its best performance of the season in a 90-58 victory in Las Vegas. That game soared over the total and as a result we're working with a higher number for this rematch. I believe it will prove too high. Keep in mind, these are two of the slowest paced teams in the country. UNLV checks in 299th in adjusted tempo according to KenPom while Air Force sits 358th (out of 362 Division I teams). The Falcons have connected on 21 or fewer field goals in three of their last four games and haven't played in over a week (they last took the floor on February 13th at San Jose State). On the flip side, Air Force has held five consecutive opponents to 50 or fewer field goal attempts. UNLV has almost matched Air Force step for step in that regard, limiting four of its last five foes to 52 or fewer field goal attempts and three of those to fewer than 50. Note that the 'under' is 9-2 in UNLV's last 11 games following a home loss in-conference, as is the case here. While Air Force enters riding a long 'over' streak (10 straight games), the 'under' remains 29-27 in its last 56 contests as an underdog. Take the under (8*). |
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02-21-24 | Ole Miss v. Mississippi State UNDER 142.5 | Top | 71-83 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 9 m | Show |
SEC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Ole Miss and Mississippi State at 9 pm et on Wednesday. The first matchup between these rivals was a high-scoring barn-burner with the Rebels prevailing 86-82 on their home floor back in late January. I expect a much different game to play out in Wednesday's rematch. Note that the 'over' has now cashed in consecutive meetings in this series. We haven't seen three straight matchups between these two teams go 'over' the total since 2019-20 and prior to that 2005-06. Ole Miss snapped its three-game losing streak with a narrow win over Missouri last time out. You could see the Rebels shifting their focus to the defensive end of the floor as that losing skid grew. They enter this contest having held their last two opponents to just 54 and 49 field goal attempts. Keep in mind, Ole Miss ranks 244th in the country in adjusted tempo according to KenPom. The Rebels have played considerably faster from an offensive standpoint at home this season, averaging two fewer made field goals on two fewer field goal attempts compared to their season average on the road. Mississippi State has hoisted up fewer than 60 field goal attempts in five of its last six games, making good on 25 or fewer field goals in four of those contests. Like the Rebels, the Bulldogs are showing signs of locking in defensively, limiting their last three foes to 57, 47 and 55 field goal attempts and holding three straight opponents to 25 or fewer made field goals. Note that the 'under' is 9-3 in Ole Miss' last 12 games following a win in-conference and 41-33 in its last 74 contests after allowing 75 points or more in consecutive games, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 16-7 in Mississippi State's last 23 games following three straight victories. Take the under (10*). |
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02-18-24 | Western v. Eastern OVER 362 | 186-211 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between the Eastern Conference and Western Conference at 8 pm et on Sunday. We've seen some lower scoring results in the NBA All-Star Game in recent years but that's really only been due to the Elam Ending rules that were enforced, implementing a target score that would end the game. It's back to the regular rules this year, along with the conference format meaning we'll see four 12-minute quarters. Keep in mind, the last two times the East and West squared off we saw 369 and 374 points in 2016 and 2017, respectively. I don't expect to see any defense played in Sunday's showcase as the offensive talent is as good as it's ever been in today's NBA, while defense has become optional with the exception of a few select teams. Simply put, I'm not sure they can set this total high enough. Take the over (8*). |
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02-18-24 | Canisius v. Siena OVER 137.5 | Top | 73-64 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 6 m | Show |
MAAC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Canisius and Siena at 2 pm et on Sunday. We've seen consecutive 'under' results in this series and that's notable as we haven't witnessed a streak of three straight meetings between these two teams going 'under' the total since an extended stretch of low-scoring matchups from 2005-08. Canisius can drag even the worst of opponents into a high-scoring affair, noting the Golden Griffins have allowed 28 or more made field goals in five straight games. They've also allowed eight of their last 11 opponents to get off at least 60 field goal attempts. In a similar vein, Siena has allowed six of its last 10 foes to hoist up at least 66 field goal attempts. Canisius is waiting for an opportunity to get out and run after getting bogged down in its last two games against Iona and Marist. Note that the Golden Griffins actually rank a respectable 130th in the country in adjusted tempo according to KenPom. The first meeting between these two teams this season reached just 130 total points but that game featured just eight combined made three-pointers. Note that these two teams average 13 combined made threes per game this season. The 'over' is 28-18 in Canisius' last 46 road games with the total set between 135 and 139.5, as is the case here at the time of writing. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 4-1 in Siena's last five contests as a home underdog of three points or less and 14-12 in its last 26 contests when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent. Take the over (10*). |
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02-17-24 | Pacific v. Gonzaga UNDER 152.5 | Top | 76-102 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 55 m | Show |
WCC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Pacific and Gonzaga at 9 pm et on Saturday. Pacific was far more competitive than expected in an 82-73 home loss against Gonzaga last month. While this game figures to be more lopsided, I also believe it will be lower-scoring. The Bulldogs used up a lot of what they had in the tank in Thursday's eventual rout of Loyola Marymount. That was a one-point game at halftime before Gonzaga poured it on in the second half. Note that the Bulldogs, while known for their offensive prowess, have also played some defense lately, holding nine straight opponents to 28 or fewer made field goals. Pacific doesn't figure to approach that number on Saturday, noting the Tigers have connected on 25 or fewer field goals in eight of their last nine games. In fact, Pacific has gotten off 53 or fewer field goal attempts in six of its last eight contests. The 'over' has cashed in two straight meetings between these teams but we haven't seen three consecutive 'over' results in series history (going back 20 all-time meetings since 2012). Note that the 'under' is 20-16 in Pacific's last 36 games as a road underdog and 13-5 in its last 18 contests when seeking revenge for a home loss against an opponent. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 11-4 in Gonzaga's last 15 games following a road win over a conference foe and 18-13 in its last 31 contests following an ATS victory as a double-digit favorite, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). |
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02-17-24 | BYU v. Oklahoma State UNDER 151.5 | 83-93 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between BYU and Oklahoma State at 2 pm et on Saturday. BYU left it all on the floor in a 90-88 home win over UCF on Tuesday while Oklahoma State has been idle since last Saturday's narrow 66-62 loss on the road against in-state rival Oklahoma. The Cougars have now been held to just 23, 27 and 21 made field goals over their last three games. I don't think we'll see the Cowboys get walked all over here, noting they do rank a respectable 86th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency this season, not to mention 194th in adjusted tempo (both according to KenPom). Meanwhile, the Cowboys aren't likely to get dragged into a track meet either. They've connected on 22 or fewer field goals in eight of their last nine contests. Last Saturday's game marked the first time in 13 contests they hoisted up 60 or more field goal attempts. Note that the 'under' is 11-7 in BYU's last 18 games following a home win in which it scored 85 or more points and 26-20 in its last 46 contests after suffering three straight ATS defeats, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 23-18 in Oklahoma State's last 41 games as an underdog and 35-28 in its last 63 games after winning three straight contests ATS. Take the under (8*). |
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02-17-24 | Florida Gulf Coast v. Stetson OVER 142.5 | 60-61 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Florida-Gulf Coast and Stetson at 2 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams are hovering around the 300-mark in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency this season (according to KenPom) with Florida-Gulf Coast just north of that level and Stetson considerably south of it. While neither team has played at all that quick of a pace - certainly nothing compared to what we saw from them in recent years - we have seen signs of them picking it up lately. FGCU has hoisted up 57 or more field goal attempts in four straight and eight of its last nine games, reaching at least 60 four times over that stretch. Stetson doesn't figure to do much to slow the Eagles as it has allowed five of its last six opponents to get off more than 60 field goal attempts. On the flip side, Stetson has 60 or more field goal attempts in four straight games, connecting on 29 or more of those shots in four of its last five contests. FGCU has continued to slow its opponents' tempo but has still allowed 25 or more made field goals in seven of its last 10 games. Note that the 'over' is 15-10 in the Eagles last 25 games as a road underdog including a 6-4 mark this season. The 'over 'is also 17-13 in their last 30 games following a double-digit win over a conference foe. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 17-5 in the Hatters last 22 games as a home favorite of six points or less including a 1-0 record in that situation this season. The 'over' is also 10-2 in their last 12 games when seeking revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent. Take the over (8*). |
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02-16-24 | Yale v. Pennsylvania OVER 137.5 | Top | 76-62 | Win | 100 | 22 h 27 m | Show |
Ivy League Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Yale and Pennsylvania at 7 pm et on Friday. These two teams just met on Yale's campus on February 3rd with the Bulldogs prevailing by a 74-58 score in a game that stayed 'under' the total. I'm anticipating a considerably higher-scoring affair in Friday's rematch in Pennsylvania. Note that Penn connected on just 20 field goals in that previous matchup. The Quakers have proven to be a much better offensive team at home this season where they average 29 made field goals per contest. Yale has been fairly solid defensively but does check in having allowed 23 or more made field goals in six of its last eight games to at least leave the door cracked for the Penn offense, which is objectively better than its defense this season (the Quakers rank 154th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and 264th in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom). Note that Penn has connected on more than 20 field goals in 19 of 22 games this season so I'm willing to chalk up that ugly performance against Yale as an outlier. Defensively, the Quakers have allowed 10 of their last 12 opponents to knock down at least 26 field goals with half of those foes making good on at least 29. Yale enters this game on a serious tear offensively having connected on 33, 31, 34, 31, 27, 25, 28 and 28 field goals over its last eight contests. Note that the 'over' is 5-2 in the Bulldogs last seven games following three straight home wins and 12-7 in their last 19 contests played on five or six days' rest, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 40-29 in Penn's last 69 games when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent in which it scored less than 60 points and 22-19 in its last 41 contests off an ATS win but SU loss. Take the over (10*). |
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02-15-24 | Bucks v. Grizzlies UNDER 223.5 | 110-113 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and Memphis at 8:30 pm et on Thursday. The Grizzlies were involved in a high-scoring victory over the Rockets last night but I expect a different story to unfold on Thursday. Memphis actually got off just 79 field goal attempts (making good on 39 of them) in that win. In fact, the Grizzlies have been held to 81 or fewer field goal attempts in three of their last five games. Incredibly, Memphis has connected on 44 or fewer field goals in 27 straight and 34 of its last 35 contests representing an iron ceiling when it comes to its scoring potential. On the flip side, the Grizzlies have limited three of their last four opponents to 43 or fewer made field goals and last night marked the first time in five games they allowed an opponent to get off more than 86 field goal attempts (that was largely game-script dependent as Houston fell behind by 15 points after the first quarter). Milwaukee continues to struggle under the guidance of head coach Doc Rivers. The Bucks have been held to 42 or fewer made field goals in six straight games and continue to play without an excellent complimentary piece in Khris Middleton. The good news is, Milwaukee continues to play tough defense having held six of its last seven opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts and eight of its last 11 foes to 44 or fewer made field goals. Note that the 'under' is 10-7 in the Bucks last 17 games following an upset loss by 15 points or more, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 8-4 in the Grizzlies last 12 games as a home underdog of between 6.5 and 12 points and 8-6 in their last 14 contests following an upset victory at home. Take the under (8*). |
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02-14-24 | Kings v. Nuggets UNDER 229.5 | 102-98 | Win | 100 | 13 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Sacramento and Denver at 9:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Kings are coming off a wild, high-scoring 130-125 loss in Phoenix last night extending their o/u record to 6-0-1 over their last seven games. I expect a different story to unfold on Wednesday as these two teams play their final game prior to the All-Star break. Sacramento has actually held five straight and eight of its last nine opponents to 88 or fewer field goal attempts. The Nuggets aren't exactly lighting it up offensively right now as they've connected on 44 or fewer field goals in 10 of their last 12 games including 42 or fewer in four of their last six contests. On the flip side, Denver continues to hold up well defensively, limiting 10 straight and 16 of their last 18 opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. Better still, Denver has held an incredible 15 of its last 18 foes to 43 or fewer made field goals. Note that the 'under' is 19-16 in the Kings last 35 games played on the second of back-to-back nights and 19-11 in their last 30 contests following six consecutive 'over' results. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 26-20 in Denver's last 46 games as a home favorite of six points or less and 15-13 in its last 28 contests following an upset loss on the road, as is the case here. Take the under (8*). |
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02-14-24 | Georgia Tech v. Notre Dame UNDER 133 | Top | 55-58 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
ACC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Georgia Tech and Notre Dame at 7 pm et on Wednesday. Notre Dame is coming off a stunning 74-66 upset win over Virginia Tech on Saturday marking the first time it scored more than 61 points since a 75-68 victory at Georgia Tech on January 9th. I'm not convinced the Irish will enjoy similar offensive success here, noting they still rank 336th in the country in adjusted tempo (according to KenPom) and just inside the top-300 in terms of adjusted offensive efficiency. Prior to Saturday's contest Notre Dame had been held to 24 or fewer made field goals in 10 straight games. Georgia Tech is by no means an elite defensive team but despite allowing six of its last 10 opponents to get off more than 60 field goal attempts it yielded 30 or more made field goals just once over that stretch. On the flip side, the Yellow Jackets have connected on 25 or fewer field goals in seven straight games. The Irish can play some defensive having limited eight straight and 14 of their last 15 opponents to 26 or fewer made field goals. The first meeting between these two teams this season did reach 143 total points but both teams played at a faster pace than expected and shot better than their season average from beyond the arc in that contest. Note that the 'under' is 12-5 in Georgia Tech's last 17 games when seeking revenge for a loss where its opponent scored 75 points or more and 8-1 in its last nine contests following consecutive double-digit losses. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 25-21 in Notre Dame's last 46 home games and 9-3 in its last 12 contests following an upset victory. Take the under (10*). |
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02-13-24 | Colorado State v. San Diego State UNDER 140 | 55-71 | Win | 100 | 13 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado State and San Diego State at 9 pm et on Tuesday. I think the fact that these two teams combined to score 150 points in their first meeting this season (on January 30th) is weighing heavily on this total. This is a matchup of two terrific defensive teams, not to mention two relatively slow-paced offenses. You wouldn't know it from the first matchup but I look for a more tightly-contested affair in Tuesday's rematch. Colorado State has seen the 'under' cash in three straight games and is coming off a 66-47 rout of San Jose State on Friday. The Rams are locked-in defensively right now having held each of their last three opponents to 23 or fewer made field goals and 15 of their last 16 opponents to 60 or fewer field goal attempts. While they do rank an impressive 25th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, they also sit 281st in adjusted tempo (both according to KenPom). Colorado State has hoisted up 53 or fewer field goal attempts in four straight games entering Tuesday's contest. San Diego State is coming off an overtime loss at Nevada on Friday. The Aztecs rank 19th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency this season according to KenPom. They check in having held an incredible 17 of their last 19 opponents to 25 or fewer made field goals. They've also limited 16 of their last 18 foes to fewer than 60 field goal attempts. While San Diego State does rank inside the top-50 in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, it is just 231st in adjusted tempo. The Aztecs have knocked down 27 or fewer field goals in nine of their last 10 games. Even in their previous matchup with the Rams they got off an uncharacteristic 60 field goal attempts but still topped out at 27 made field goals. Note that the 'under' is 7-2 in Colorado State's last nine games following three straight wins over conference opponents and 19-13 in its last 32 contests after a double-digit win. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 32-24 in San Diego State's last 56 games when seeking revenge for a loss in which its opponent scored 75 points or more and 21-18 in its last 39 games as a home favorite. Take the under (8*). |
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02-12-24 | Wolves v. Clippers UNDER 222.5 | Top | 121-100 | Win | 100 | 16 h 48 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Monday. I think this game has the potential to have an 'old school' feel as the Timberwolves take the court for the first time since last Thursday while the Clippers wrap up a three-game homestand that has seen them go 0-2 ATS so far. Minnesota's most recent game found its way 'over' the total thanks to a lights out shooting performance in Milwaukee. The pace wasn't necessarily there as the T'Wolves hoisted up 87 field goal attempts in a 129-105 rout. Keep in mind, Minnesota has gotten off 90 or fewer field goal attempts in 11 of its last 12 games and averages just 86 per game on the road this season. Also note that the T'Wolves have knocked down 42 or fewer field goals in six of their last nine contests. On the flip side, Minnesota is locked-in defensively having held eight of its last nine opponents to 41 or fewer made field goals in regulation time. The Clippers have had a tough enough time just getting shots off, let alone knocking them down lately. They've gotten off 82 or fewer field goal attempts in three of their last four games. You would have to go back six contests to find the last time they hoisted up more than 89 field goal attempts. They've been held to 38 or fewer made field goals in four of their last seven games. Los Angeles is coming off an uncharacteristically bad defensive effort against Detroit on Saturday. Note that the Clippers have allowed three of their last four foes to get off more than 90 field goal attempts. I do think the fact that Minnesota hasn't played since Thursday and that it plays at a relatively slow pace works in Los Angeles' favor here. Keep in mind, the Clips have limited the opposition to just 41 made field goals per game at home this season. Note that the 'under' is 6-3 in Minnesota's last nine games played on three or more days' rest and 24-21 in its last 45 contests following an upset win. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 20-15 in Los Angeles' last 35 games following a victory by six points or less and 29-20 in its last 49 home games with the total set between 220 and 229.5 points, as is the case here at the time of writing. Take the under (10*). |
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02-12-24 | Wake Forest v. Duke OVER 151.5 | 69-77 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Wake Forest and Duke at 7 pm et on Monday. Last Monday we saw an absolute stinker of an ACC matchup as Virginia throttled Miami in an extremely low-scoring game. I expect a much different story to unfold this week as Wake Forest travels to Cameron Indoor Stadium to challenge Duke. The Demon Deacons have quietly reeled off three straight wins. They're on a tear offensively right now having connected on 28, 35, 29 and 29 field goals over their last four games. Duke has caught a couple of favorable matchups at home against Notre Dame and Boston College over the last week but will have to contend with an up-tempo Wake Forest squad here. Note that the Blue Devils have by no means played lockdown defense, allowing eight of their last 10 opponents to get off at least 58 field goal attempts. Wake Forest sits just outside the top-100 in the country in adjusted tempo according to KenPom. Defensively, the Demon Deacons can be exposed. They've shown no consistent ability to slow the opposition, allowing three straight opponents to hoist up at least 60 field goal attempts and six in a row to get off at least 57. I mentioned the Deacs are on an offensive tear but so are the Blue Devils. They've knocked down 30 or more field goals in three of their last four games and 26 or more in nine of their last 12 contests. Note that the 'over' is 13-8 in Wake Forest's last 21 games as a road underdog and 23-10 in its last 33 contests following three straight wins over conference opponents. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 15-7 in Duke's last 22 games following consecutive 'under' results and 21-17 in its last 38 contests following a game in which it scored 80 or more points, as is the case here. Take the over (8*). |
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02-11-24 | Bowling Green v. UL - Lafayette OVER 151 | Top | 60-86 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 10 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Bowling Green and Louisiana-Lafayette at 3 pm et on Sunday. It's a rare non-conference matchup in February as Bowling Green travels to face Louisiana on Sunday afternoon. The Falcons have quietly reeled off 11 straight 'over' results. While getting out of the MAC for a game may serve as a 'catalyst for change' on most occasions, I'm not convinced that's the case here. Louisiana is coming off consecutive 'under' results but hasn't seen three straight games stay 'under' the total all season. The Ragin' Cajuns don't mind getting out and running and they'll certainly get their opportunity to do so here as the Falcons have allowed four of their last six opponents to get off more than 60 field goal attempts. Worse still, Bowling Green has allowed 11 of its last 14 foes to connect on at least 28 field goals. Louisiana has gotten bogged down at times against slow-paced Sun Belt Conference teams but still checks in having made good on 26 or more field goals in seven of its last 10 contests. Of course we'll need Bowling Green to hold up its end of the bargain offensively to help this total along as well. The Falcons have hoisted up 60 or more field goal attempts in 12 of their last 16 games. They enter on a tear having knocked down at least 29 field goals in three of their last four contests. Note that the 'over' is 24-11 in Bowling Green's last 35 games following a win. The 'over' is also 21-13 ATS in Louisiana's last 34 games following an ATS defeat, as is the case here. Take the over (10*). |
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02-11-24 | Celtics v. Heat UNDER 226.5 | 110-106 | Win | 100 | 6 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Miami at 2:10 pm et on Sunday. The Celtics are coming off a wild, high-scoring game against the Wizards on Friday. Interestingly, they haven't posted consecutive 'over' results since January 8th and 10th. While Boston continues to give up too many scoring opportunities (that's been somewhat game-script dependent lately), it has held four straight and 12 of its last 14 opponents to 45 or fewer made field goals. That's not all that stingy of a number by any means but considering the Celtics have allowed more than 90 field goal attempts in 10 straight games, it's worth noting. It's never easy to bait the Heat into a track meet. Miami has gotten off 88 or fewer field goal attempts in 12 of its last 15 games and averages only 86 per game at home this season. The Heat are once again locked-in defensively, limiting five straight opponents to 41 or fewer made field goals entering Sunday's contest. Note that the 'under' is 31-22 in Boston's last 53 games as a road favorite of six points or less and 26-13 in its last 39 contests following a victory by six points or less. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 13-9 in Miami's last 22 games as a home favorite of six points or less and 11-9 in its last 20 contests when seeking revenge for a double-digit home loss against an opponent, as is the case here. Take the under (8*). |
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02-10-24 | Oklahoma State v. Oklahoma UNDER 139.5 | Top | 62-66 | Win | 100 | 24 h 15 m | Show |
Big 12 Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Oklahoma State and Oklahoma at 7 pm et on Saturday. Oklahoma State enters this game off consecutive 'over' results but I look for a different story to unfold as the Cowboys travel to Stillwater for a showdown with the rival Sooners on Saturday. The Cowboys have been positively dreadful offensively for the most part over the last month or so, connecting on 22 or fewer field goals in seven of their last eight games. They'll run into the 16th ranked defense in the country (in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency) according to KenPom on Saturday. The Sooners have limited three straight and five of their last seven foes to 23 or fewer made field goals. While Oklahoma's defense has been stout, it hasn't been quite as consistent offensively, making good on 25 or fewer field goals in seven of its last eight contests. While the Oklahoma State defense is not elite by any means, I do think it is better than it has shown lately, most recently getting lit up by Houston in a 'wrong place at the wrong time situation' after the Cougars dropped a tough one on the road against Kansas three days earlier. The Cowboys have held 15 of 23 opponents to fewer than 60 field goal attempts this season. Note that the 'under' is 6-1 in Oklahoma State's last seven games as a double-digit road underdog and 18-16 in its last 34 games following an ATS victory. Meanwhile, Oklahoma has seen the 'under' go 12-9 in its last 22 games as a double-digit home favorite and 14-12 in its last 26 contests following a double-digit home victory, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). |
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02-09-24 | Hawks v. 76ers OVER 242.5 | Top | 127-121 | Win | 100 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Philadelphia at 7:10 pm et on Friday. These two teams just met back on January 10th in Atlanta and produced a total of 271 points (aided by an overtime period). I'm anticipating another high-scoring affair in Friday's rematch. The Hawks are on a scoring tear right now. They've connected on 51, 44, 53, 49, 55 (overtime game against Golden State), 51 and 43 field goals over their last seven contests. They've also hoisted up at least 93 field goal attempts in 10 straight games. The 76ers don't figure to stand in their way on Friday. Philadelphia has sagged defensively in the absence of Joel Embiid, allowing six straight and eight of their last nine opponents to knock down at least 42 field goals. On the flip side, I do think it's only a matter of time before the Sixers shots start falling. They've gotten off 93 or more field goal attempts in four straight games, making good on 47, 44, 40 and 41 over that stretch. The door is wide open for a breakout performance here, noting that Atlanta has allowed five straight and seven of its last eight opponents to connect on at least 47 field goals. Note that the 'over' is 22-18 in the Hawks last 40 games as a road favorite. The 'over' is also 16-11 in the Sixers last 27 home games with the total set at 230 points or higher. Take the over (10*). |
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02-08-24 | Wolves v. Bucks UNDER 228.5 | 129-105 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. Neither of these teams are playing their best basketball right now. The Timberwolves check in 5-5 SU and 4-6 ATS over their last 10 games while the Bucks have lost four of their last five contests both SU and ATS. Minnesota did give up 129 points in an overtime defeat in Chicago two nights ago but remains locked-in defensively having held five straight and nine of its last 11 opponents to 41 or fewer made field goals in regulation time. It might be catching Milwaukee at the right time as Khris Middleton is among those sidelined while Damian Lillard is questionable to play on Thursday after missing Tuesday's contest in Phoenix. Offensively, it's been a bit of a slog for the T'Wolves as they've connected on 42 or fewer field goals in three straight and six of their last eight contests. Here, they'll run into a Bucks squad that should have one of their key stoppers back on the floor in Brook Lopez after he missed a few games due to personal reasons. While Milwaukee certainly hasn't been dominant defensively during its recent slide, it has still limited eight of its last 10 opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals. Note that the 'under' is 22-15 in the T'Wolves last 37 games following an upset loss including 7-2 this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 10-6 in the Bucks last 16 home games with the line set between +3 and -3. Take the under (8*). |
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02-07-24 | Raptors v. Hornets OVER 225.5 | 123-117 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Toronto and Charlotte at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Raptors have seen each of their last three games go 'over' the total while the Hornets are coming off a high-scoring affair against the Lakers as well. I expect more of the same as these two struggling teams match up on Wednesday. The Raptors look like a tired team right now, certainly disinterested in playing much defense having allowed 47 or more made field goals in regulation time in six of their last nine contests and 44 or more in eight of those games. Not only that but they've had no success (or interest in) slowing their opponents' pace, allowing seven of their last eight foes to hoist up at least 93 field goal attempts. The Hornets have been pushing the pace a little more lately, getting off 90 or more field goal attempts in three of their last four contests. Similar to Toronto, Charlotte has been getting lashed defensively, allowing seven straight and 10 of its last 12 opponents to knock down 44 or more field goals. Note that the 'over' is 17-15 in the Raptors last 32 games as a road favorite and 5-1 in their last six contests after giving up 135 points or more in their previous game. Meanwhile, the 'over' is a long-term 59-50 in the Hornets last 109 games with the total set between 220 and 229.5 points. The 'under' cashed in the most recent matchup between these two teams on December 18th but we haven't seen consecutive 'under' results in this series over the last six meetings. Take the over (8*). |
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02-05-24 | Kings v. Cavs UNDER 235.5 | Top | 110-136 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Sacramento and Cleveland at 7:10 pm et on Monday. Sacramento has posted consecutive 'over' results as it wraps up its long seven-game road trip on Monday in Cleveland. I expect a different story to unfold here. The Kings have been ultra-efficient offensively but it's not as if they've been playing at a break-neck pace. They check in having connected on 43 or fewer field goals in four of their last five games. Here they'll run into a Cavaliers squad that is locked-in defensively and has been for weeks. Cleveland has held an incredible nine of its last 11 opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals. Offensively, the Cavs have certainly been good but aren't exactly blowing the doors off the opposition, making good on 46 or fewer field goals in 11 of their last 13 contests. The Kings, while not known for their defensive prowess, have been terrific at that end of the floor as well, limiting four of their last five foes to 43 or fewer made field goals. Note that the 'under' is 38-25 in the Kings last 63 games as a road underdog and 21-12 in their last 33 contests as a road underdog of six points or less. The 'under' is also a modest 26-24 in their last 50 games after consecutive 'over' results. Meanwhile, the Cavs have seen the 'under' go 12-6 in their last 18 contests with the total set at 230 points or higher. The 'under' is also 19-12 in their last 31 games when seeking revenge for a double-digit road loss against an opponent, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). |
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02-05-24 | Miami-FL v. Virginia UNDER 132 | Top | 38-60 | Win | 100 | 22 h 8 m | Show |
ACC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Virginia at 7 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams have been on a bit of a tear (relatively speaking) offensively in recent weeks but I look for Monday's matchup to take on more of a defensive flavor. Miami delivered an 82-74 home win over Virginia Tech on Saturday. While the Hurricanes have connected on 24 or more field goals in eight straight games, they haven't knocked down 30 or more field goals since back on January 6th against Wake Forest. They obviously draw a tough challenge here as Virginia ranks 12th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom. The Cavaliers have held six straight opponents to 23 or fewer made field goals. They've also limited six of their last seven foes to 56 or fewer field goal attempts. On the flip side, Virginia has made good on more than 27 field goals just once in its last eight contests. Note that the 'under' is 12-6 in Miami's last 18 games as a road underdog and 11-7 in its last 18 games following a home win in-conference. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 11-6 in Virginia's last 17 games following consecutive 'over' results, as is the case here. The 'under' is also a perfect 7-0 in the Cavaliers last seven games following a win by three points or less in-conference. Finally, we'll note that the 'under' is a long-term 11-4 in the last 15 meetings in this series. Take the under (10*). |
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02-04-24 | Stanford v. Arizona OVER 162 | 71-82 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Stanford and Arizona at 8 pm et on Sunday. The 'over' has cashed in five straight meetings between these teams and I expect that trend to continue on Sunday. Stanford took the first matchup of the season in stunning fashion, cruising to a 100-82 home win on New Year's Eve. Arizona remains one of the best offensive teams in the country, ranking sixth in adjusted offensive efficiency according to KenPom. They're also just one spot outside the top-10 in adjusted tempo. Stanford has shown no ability to slow the pace of the opposition, allowing 60 or more field goal attempts in seven straight and 13 of their last 14 games overall. They did hold Arizona State down in a revenge game two nights ago but now the shoe is on the other foot. Note that Arizona has knocked down 28 or more field goals in 13 of its last 15 games and 18 of 21 contests overall this season. The question is whether Stanford can contribute enough to help this total along. While Arizona is tough defensively, the simple fact that it plays at such a fast pace tends to give the opposition plenty of scoring opportunities. Note that the Wildcats have allowed the opposition to connect on 26 or more field goals in six of their last seven games. The 'over' is 8-6 in Stanford's last 14 games following consecutive 'under' results and 23-17 in its last 40 contests following a win. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 21-16 in Arizona's last 37 games when seeking revenge for a double-digit road loss against an opponent and 14-9 in its last 23 contests following a home win by 20 points or more, as is the case here. Take the over (8*). |
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02-04-24 | Clippers v. Heat UNDER 225.5 | 103-95 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Miami at 6:10 pm et on Sunday. Kawhi Leonard called out his team for its poor defensive play in Friday's 136-125 win in Detroit. In that contest, the Clippers allowed 45 made field goals for a second straight game. While the Clips haven't exactly been locked-in defensively on their current road trip, it's not as if they've been getting lit up either. Note that Los Angeles has held 10 straight and 17 of its last 18 opponents to 45 or fewer made field goals. The Heat have rebounded following a seven-game losing streak to deliver consecutive wins over the Kings and Wizards. In those two contests they allowed the opposition to knock down just 41 and 37 field goals. Terry Rozier in particular has shown a renewed commitment to defense, even if it has come at the expense of his offensive production. Offensively, the Heat remain capped by a relatively low ceiling, noting they've connected on 42 or fewer field goals in an incredible 18 straight games. You would have to go back five games to find the last time they got off more than 88 field goal attempts. Note that the 'under' is 16-6 in the Clippers last 22 games following a win but non-cover and 7-4 in their last 11 contests after scoring 125 points or more in consecutive games, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 9-6 in the Heat's last 15 games following consecutive ATS wins as favorites and 12-9 in their last 21 contests as a home underdog of six points or less. Take the under (8*). |
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02-03-24 | Bucks v. Mavs OVER 246.5 | 129-117 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and Dallas at 8:40 pm et on Saturday. The Bucks will certainly be in a foul mood entering this game after they dropped consecutive matchups in Denver and Portland to open their current road trip. I believe this contest has track meet potential as the Mavericks also look to bounce back following a drubbing at the hands of the Timberwolves last time out. Milwaukee continues to push the pace having hoisted up 90 or more field goal attempts in 12 of its last 16 games. While it hasn't been as consistent shooting-wise as we've become accustomed to it has still managed to connect on 45 or more field goals in three of its last five games and seven of its last 11 contests. Dallas is just 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS over its last seven contests. The Mavs rested a number of players in their most recent game in Minnesota on Wednesday and struggled mightily as a result. Note that prior to that game, the Mavs had connected on 43 or more field goals in four of their last five games. They continue to have a tough time slowing the opposition, allowing four of their last five foes to knock down at least 45 field goals. You would have to go back nine games to find the last time they held an opponent to 40 or fewer made field goals. The first meeting between these two teams was a high-scoring one as they combined to score 257 points. Note that the 'over' is 26-21 in the Bucks last 47 games following an upset loss and 12-10 in their last 22 contests following consecutive defeats. Meanwhile, the Mavs have seen the 'over' go 24-17 in their lat 41 games following a double-digit loss and 23-18 in their last 41 contests after scoring 100 points or less in their previous game. Take the over (8*). |
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02-03-24 | California v. Arizona State OVER 144.5 | Top | 81-66 | Win | 100 | 17 h 33 m | Show |
Pac-12 Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between California and Arizona State at 3 pm et on Saturday. California ran into a buzz saw in Arizona on Thursday, dropping a 91-65 decision. That game still managed to stay 'under' the total - the Bears second straight 'under' result. Meanwhile, Arizona State checks in off a relatively low-scoring home defeat at the hands of Stanford on Thursday. The Sun Devils have struggled to find their shooting legs in recent games but should be afforded plenty of opportunities against a very forgiving Cal defense on Saturday. Note that the Bears have allowed eight of their last 10 opponents to knock down 25 or more field goals. They've also yielded 58 or more field goal attempts in nine of their last 10 contests. On the flip side, Cal has at least been consistent offensively, connecting on 25 or more field goals in six straight games entering Saturday's action. The Sun Devils rank an impressive 44th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom but that's largely based on early season returns. They've allowed five of their last six opponents to make good on 25 or more field goals. Note that the pace was there in the first meeting between these two teams this season (both hoisted up 60+ field goal attempts) but we saw just 48 combined made field goals in a game that cruised 'under' the total with 140 points. Note that the 'over' is 14-9 in Cal's last 23 games when seeking revenge for a home loss against an opponent. The 'over' is also 13-11 in the Bears last 24 contests following a road loss. Arizona State has seen the 'over' go 6-4 in its last 10 games following a home loss in-conference and 7-4 in its last 11 home contests with the total set between 140 and 149.5 points. Take the over (10*). |
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02-02-24 | San Jose State v. Nevada OVER 142 | Top | 60-90 | Win | 100 | 27 h 49 m | Show |
Mountain West Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between San Jose State and Nevada at 11 pm et on Friday. San Jose State sits tied for last place in the Mountain West Conference with just one win in eight games this season. Meanwhile, Nevada is 3-4 and staring up at seven other teams in the conference. Needless to say, I don't expect either team to play lock-down defense on Friday night in Reno. Note that San Jose State is on an incredible run of defensive futility as it has allowed five straight opponents to shoot better than 50% from the field with its last four foes knocking down 33, 34, 30 and 30 field goals. Nevada should be in a foul mood after connecting on just 19 field goals in a blowout loss at New Mexico last time out. Note that the Wolf Pack had made good on 35 and 39 field goals in their two previous contests. They've gotten bogged down by the better teams they've faced in conference play but San Jose State certainly doesn't fall into that category. The question is whether the Spartans can produce enough offense to help this total along. I'm confident they can, noting they've actually been reasonably consistent offensively, making good on 24 or more field goals in 11 of their last 12 games. In fact, they rank a respectable 128th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency this season. San Jose state played quite slow early in the season but has picked up the pace, hoisting up more than 60 field goal attempts in six of its last 12 games. Note that the 'over' is 10-6 in the Spartans last 16 games as a double-digit road underdog and 8-3 in their last 11 contests following consecutive 'under' results. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 12-10 in Nevada's last 22 games following a loss in-conference and a long-term 21-8 in its last 29 contests after scoring 55 points or less in its previous game. Take the over (10*). |
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02-02-24 | Magic v. Wolves UNDER 212 | 108-106 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Orlando and Minnesota at 8:10 pm et on Friday. This game figures to have a bit of an old-school feel as the Magic and Timberwolves have proven to be two of the more slow-paced teams in the league while also proving elite defensively. Orlando has held five of its last six opponents to 80 or fewer field goal attempts. Going back further, nine of its last 12 opponents have gotten off 83 or fewer field goal attempts. It's a similar story with the T'Wolves as they've limited four of their last five foes to fewer than 80 field goal attempts. In fact, of Minnesota's last 18 opponents, only five have managed to connect on 40 or more field goals. As I mentioned, both teams are also playing at a slow pace themselves. Orlando has gotten off 88 or fewer field goal attempts in 10 of its last 11 contests. Minnesota has hoisted up 84 or fewer field goal attempts in seven of its last eight games. The first meeting between these two teams totalled just 205 points back in early January. Note that the 'under' is 19-14 in Orlando's last 33 games following a road win. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 17-8 in Minnesota's last 25 games as a home favorite of between 6.5 and 12 points and 6-1 in its last seven contests following an ATS win as a double-digit favorite (including a perfect 3-0 this season). Take the under (8*). |
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02-02-24 | Suns v. Hawks OVER 247 | 120-129 | Win | 100 | 13 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Phoenix and Atlanta at 7:40 pm et on Friday. This projects as a track meet between the Suns and Hawks in Atlanta on Friday. Few teams are as locked-in offensively as the Suns right now as they've knocked down more than 40 field goals in 11 straight games, connecting on at least 46 field goals in eight of those contests. They draw a smash spot on Friday as the Hawks have been matador-like defensively, allowing their last six opponents to make good on 43, 43, 51, 51, 41 and 48 field goals. Note that three of the Hawks last five foes have gotten off at least 90 field goal attempts. On the flip side, Atlanta is quietly thriving offensively, knocking down 51, 44 and 53 field goals over its last three games. It was only a matter of time before the shots started falling and the Hawks preferred pace is fast, noting they've hoisted up more than 90 field goal attempts in 14 of their last 17 contests. Once stingy, the Suns have been far more forgiving defensively of late, allowing seven of their last nine foes to get off at least 92 field goal attempts. Note that the 'over' is 22-11 in the Suns last 33 road games with the total set at 230 points or higher. The 'over' is also a perfect 8-0 in their last eight contests following a win by 15 points or more, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 15-12 in the Hawks last 27 games as a home underdog and 20-11 in their last 31 contests after scoring 136 points or more in their previous game. Take the over (8*). |
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02-02-24 | Clippers v. Pistons OVER 237.5 | Top | 136-125 | Win | 100 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Friday. The Clippers may be known for their defensive prowess but it's been their offense that has paced them to 30+ wins this season. Los Angeles enters this game on a tear offensively having knocked down 45 or more field goals in eight of their last 11 games. The Clips are also playing at a faster pace than we've been accustomed to seeing, hoisting up 95 or more field goal attempts in three of the first four games on their current road trip. They should be afforded plenty of scoring opportunities on Friday as the Pistons have allowed 21 of their last 28 opponents to connect on at least 44 field goals. That's not to mention the fact that eight of their last 11 foes have gotten off 90+ field goal attempts. The question is whether Detroit can produce enough to help this total along. I believe it can. Note that the Pistons have made good on 43 or more field goals in eight of their last 10 games. They're catching the Clips at the right time as they've allowed six of their last seven foes to knock down at least 42 field goals and haven't exactly been smothering in nature, giving up 90+ field goal attempts in five of their last six contests. Note that the 'over' is 33-25 in the Clippers last 58 games following a double-digit win, as is the case here. The 'over' is also 27-22 in Detroit's last 49 contests after posting consecutive ATS victories. Take the over (10*). |
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01-31-24 | Magic v. Spurs OVER 227.5 | 108-98 | Loss | -111 | 14 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Orlando and San Antonio at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Magic offense is flashing right now, showing steady improvement in each of its last three games. It draws a mouth-watering matchup on Wednesday as the Spurs have been matador-like defensively allowing 47, 49, 48, 54, 38, 45 and 46 made field goals over their last seven contests. Orlando tweaked its starting five last time out and scored a whopping 77 first half points in an eventual 131-129 loss in Dallas. I do think the Magic are vulnerable defensively right now as they've allowed their last four opponents to knock down 45, 42, 41 and 43 field goals. That's not bad on the face of it but is concerning when you consider three of those opponents hoisted up 80 or fewer field goal attempts. The Spurs have been reasonably matchup-proof when it comes to pace, attempting more than 90 field goals in seven of their last 10 games. Offensively, San Antonio has quietly been on a roll, connecting on 42 or more field goals in seven straight games. Note that the 'over' is 23-17 in Orlando's last 40 games as a favorite and 35-20 in its last 55 contests following consecutive ATS victories. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 29-14 in the Spurs last 43 games as a home underdog of six points or less and 9-5 in their last 14 contests following three straight 'under' results, as is the case here. Take the over (8*). |
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01-30-24 | Jazz v. Knicks UNDER 231.5 | Top | 103-118 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Utah and New York at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday. The 'under' is an incredible 13-2 in the Knicks last 15 games and I look for that trend to continue as they return home to host the Jazz on Tuesday. Utah got stomped by the Nets in Brooklyn last night. The Jazz are by no means playing good defensive basketball right now but I do think they get a bit of a reprieve in this back-to-back spot. Note that New York, while red hot off seven straight wins, has connected on 45 or fewer field goals in 16 of its last 18 games. It doesn't generally look to push the pace having hoisted up fewer than 90 field goal attempts in 15 straight games entering Tuesday's contest. On the flip side, the Knicks are as locked-in defensively as any team right now having held nine straight and 14 of their last 15 opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals. Note that the 'under' is 10-4 in the Jazz's last 14 games following a road loss by 20 points or more, as is the case here. The 'under' is also 6-1 in Utah's last seven contests after consecutive games totalling 245 points or more. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 26-19 in the Knicks last 45 games as a home favorite of six points or less and 7-4 in their last 11 contests after a road win by 20 points or more. Take the under (10*). |
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01-30-24 | South Carolina v. Tennessee UNDER 136.5 | Top | 63-59 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
SEC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between South Carolina and Tennessee at 6:30 pm et on Tuesday. South Carolina enters this game having scored more than 70 points in three straight games - all victories in SEC play. It will be hard-pressed to reach that number on Tuesday, however, as it travels to Rocky Top to challenge Tennessee and it's elite defense. The Volunteers check in ranked second in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom. The Gamecocks will need to effectively shorten this game by relying on their methodical pace, noting they rank 348th (out of 362 Division I teams) in adjusted tempo (also according to KenPom). South Carolina can hold its own defensively as well as it has limited four straight and eight of its last 10 opponents to 25 or fewer made field goals. Offensively, the Gamecocks had a brief two-game outburst but that was against two poor SEC defenses in Arkansas and Kentucky. Last time out they knocked down just 23 field goals in a win over Missouri and they've been held to 24 or fewer made field goals in five of their last seven contests. I mentioned Tennessee's elite defense, it has held 12 straight opponents to 26 or fewer made field goals and nine of its last 11 foes to 23 or less. Note that the 'under' is 7-5 in the Gamecocks last 12 games following three straight ATS victories, including 3-1 in that situation this season. The 'under' is 22-17 in the Vols last 39 games following an ATS loss and 6-3 in their last nine contests after posting three straight wins by double-digits, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). |
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01-28-24 | Marist v. Canisius UNDER 131.5 | Top | 80-71 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 47 m | Show |
MAAC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Marist and Canisius at 1 pm et on Sunday. While Marist rides a three-game 'under' streak into this matchup on Sunday, Canisius snapped a two-game 'under' streak with an 'over' result on Friday. I'm anticipating a relatively low-scoring affair between these two MAAC squads on Sunday afternoon. Marist has dropped the cash in six of its last seven games and that's been more to do with its punchless offense than anything else. The Red Foxes check in ranked 337th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and 321st in adjusted tempo, both according to KenPom. They've been held to 25 or fewer made field goals in seven of their last eight contests. While Canisius is certainly no defensive juggernaut, it has held three straight and four of its last five opponents to 27 or fewer made field goals. Marist actually sits just outside the top-100 (106th) in adjusted defensive efficiency. Red Foxes' opponents have had a tough enough time getting shots off let alone knocking them down. Marist has limited five straight and nine of its last 10 foes to 54 or fewer field goal attempts. You would have to go back six games to find the last time Marist allowed more than 24 made field goals. In fact, it has held an incredible 13 of its last 14 opponents to 24 or less made field goals. The Golden Griffins offense did get loose on Friday but that was against one of the worst defensive teams not just in the MAAC but in the entire country in Manhattan. Prior to that contest, Canisius had been held to 26 or fewer made field goals in four straight games. Note that the 'under' is a long-term 29-18 in Marist's last 47 games as a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points. The 'under' is also 18-15 in Canisius' last 33 contests following an 'over' result. Take the under (10*). |
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