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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-30-18 | Ravens +3 v. Steelers | 26-14 | Win | 100 | 74 h 31 m | Show | |
Despite of the Steelers notching their first win of the season last time out  this past Monday, their were still some issues that stood out. The Steelers took a big lead vs TB in that Monday night game but did not score in the 2nd half, and still allowed 27 points as they now rank 29thin in the league in defence. With the Ravens averaging  32.3 points per game the Steelers will once again be tested and probably trampled on by a revenge minded Ravens group that lost 39-38 in last years blockbuster battle covering as 5 point dogs. I know the Ravens choked against Cincinnati last time out, but they will be wide awake for this tilt and ready to rock'n'roll. Another key difference maker in what will be a physical game  will come with discipline something,  Pittsburgh has struggled with this season as they have been penalized for an average of 120 yards per game,  which is easily the worst in the league. The Ravens are  5-0 ATS as division dogs of more than 3 points. and  the Steelers are 1-7 ATS home after a Monday-nighter when taking on .500 or greater opponents. Also NFL Sunday night home chalk in division games against opposition coming off a victory, are just  8-18-2 SU and 5-22-1 ATS versus .600 or greater opposition .Home faves up to +7 are in a 1-14 ATS L/15 in Week 4 coming off their first victory of the season. Play on the Ravens to cover |
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09-30-18 | Seahawks v. Cardinals +3 | 20-17 | Push | 0 | 73 h 35 m | Show | |
When I saw that the Cardinals were being made underdogs at home , I understood why, but to a down trending team like Seattle, this underdog line favouring the home team becomes a value based option. I know Arizona has struggled to score, and has been shutout once this season, and only scored 14 ppg in their other two, but their offence despite of being conservative in nature shows some promise going forward. behind a true gun slinger in for UCLA star QB Josh Rosen who is expected to start this week. The pieces are being built for him to take off, despite of the cement shackles the coordinators are putting on him. With that said, I expect the Cards to make life tough on the Seahawks like they did on the Bears last week, and get us a cover. Note:1-2 chalk in Game Three off a victory are just 12-32 ATS and sides like Arizona  that have scored no more than 16 combined points in their past two games  are 76-31-1 ATS in the follow up. Yes, I know the Seahawks D, looked good last week in a win, but it also must be noted that the Seahawks are 0-7 ATS  L/7  after a home game where they allowed less than 14 points. ARIZONA is 23-9 ATS in home games off a home loss.Carroll is 2-12 ATS in road games in September games as the coach of SEATTLE. Play on Arizona to cover |
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09-30-18 | Dolphins v. Patriots -6.5 | 7-38 | Win | 100 | 70 h 54 m | Show | |
The Dolphins enter this game at 3-0 and are being made underdogs to the 1-2 New England Patriots. The lines makers are obviously not buying into their current record , and still feel the the Pats are most probably ready to take out their frustrations this week vs a team that is very over rated and also a little lucky to be undefeated so far. Considering the Bill Belichick and company are also in a revenge mode for a 27-20 loss at Miami in December of last year this line looks cheaper by the minute. It must be noted that the Pats are  11-1 ATSat home when playing with single-revenge. New England future hall of fame QB Tom Brady is also a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS when coming of consecutive losses in division games. New England is 11-0 ATS L/11 when hosting a team that is off three consecutive wins.NEW ENGLAND is 8-0 ATS after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons. NFL Road underdogs or pick (MIAMI) - after 3 or more consecutive wins against the spread, in the first half of the season are 7-27 ATS L/10 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on the New England Pats to cover |
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09-30-18 | Jets v. Jaguars OVER 38.5 | 12-31 | Win | 100 | 69 h 14 m | Show | |
After being sky high for their game against New England which they won, the Jags followed that up with a emotional letdown performance last week vs the Titans and lost 9-6 in the ugliest way.  But now after that down effort I expect the Jags will be ready toilet it all hang out this week offensively. Note. Jaguars are 7-0 OU  L/7 at home coming off a home game where they scored less than 14 points. Meanwhile, the Jets , were corralled by Cleveland staunch defence last week, scoring just 17 points, and top tier secondary and were half to just 161 passing yards. The Jets in the recent past have however gone over  8 strong times  when going on the road off a game as a road dog where they threw for less than 200 yards.  I look for Jacksonville to do some damage here and for the Jets to have to open up in order to keep up which will result in what I'm betting will be a high scoring affair. JACKSONVILLE in their L/12 in home games after scoring 9 points or less last game since 1992 have seen a  average combined score coming in at 49.1 ppg. NFL team against the total (JACKSONVILLE) - off an extremely close loss by 3 points or less to a division rival, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record. are 39-15 OVER L/35 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Road teams against the total (NY JETS) - good team - outscoring opponents by 4 or more points/game, after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game are 114-66 OVER  L/10 seasons for a 63% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Injury update that should help this score jump over the number.RB] 09/26/2018 - Leonard Fournette is upgraded to probable Sunday vs NY Jets ( Hamstring ) Play on the OVER  |
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09-24-18 | Steelers +1 v. Bucs | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 14 h 8 m | Show | |
Pittsburgh at 0-2 does not currently look like a power house team thanks in part to a defence that  looks highly inconsistent.What Im trying to say is that the Steelers look to be a weaker pick than many might anticipate here this Monday night. I'm betting on QB Ryan Fitzpatrick (back to back 400 yard games) and a talented collection of playmakers that include DeSean Jackson, Mike Evans, O.J. Howard and Chris Godwin to do some damage here tonight on their way to a cover. QUOTE:"I respect what they've done. I'm not so sure I'm surprised," Steelers coach Mike Tomlin said of Tampa Bay's emergence with wins against the New Orleans Saints and the reigning Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles. END QUOTE: Tomlin is 6-16 ATS in road games in September games as the coach of PITTSBURGH.Buccaneers are 8-0 ATS as Monday Night home dogs when coming off non-divisional tilt. It  must also be noted that TB should not be underestimated here no matter how desperate the Steelers are as NFL teams like Tampa Bay  coming off consecutive straight up underdog wins, are 12-1 SU and a perfect 5-0 ATS as dogs. Play on the Tampa Bay Bucs to cover |
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09-23-18 | Bears v. Cardinals OVER 38 | 16-14 | Loss | -108 | 77 h 20 m | Show | |
Thanks  the Cards being shutout last week, and scoring only 6 points in their opener this game has been listed at the ridiculously low asking price of 38 on the total. I know the Cards offence has looked anemic, but they desperately need to get things going and Im betting they take some more chances and open things up a bit, which Im betting will get them a few more points the lineskaers might expect. Meanwhile, Chicago behind an improved offence should be ready to jell behind QB Trubinsky in do some damage of their own. Note:  hey allowed their opponent to score ten-plus points more than their season-to-date average. NFL Game 3 teams who scored 14 points or less in each of their first two games have gone OVER 10 straight times, over the last 3 seasons.  Everything points to a higher scoring game than many might expect. The Cards have gone over 13 straight times on a natural surface  vs a non-divisional opponent when they are off a road game in which they allowed their opponent to score ten-plus points more than their season-to-date average. Last season using their perimeters it must be noted that  the Cards scored 38 and 27 points on the two occasions this was in play. Meanwhile,Chicago is 18-0 OVER  as a favorite on a natural surface  off a victory when they are going against  a team that is averaging less than 5.3 yards per play and has allowed at least 1.5 sacks per game. NFL  team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (CHICAGO) - after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread, in the first month of the season are78-42 OVER L/10 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. These teams have gone over in 4 straight meetings with a combined average of 55.6 ppg scored. Play OVER  |
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09-23-18 | Cowboys +2 v. Seahawks | 13-24 | Loss | -105 | 77 h 56 m | Show | |
Seattle has been down graded on my power rankings to lows not seen in years. Wow how the mighty have fallen. From a charts perspective Im betting the Cowboys have the edge , yes even here on the road , and most sharps I know agree with my assessments and you will see this via  line movement as well. DALLAS is 11-2 ATS  after outrushing opponent by 75 or more yards last game over the last 3 seasons. NFL Home teams vs. the money line (SEATTLE) - off 2 consecutive road losses, in the first month of the season are 18-44 SU L/35 seasons. NFL Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (SEATTLE) - off a road loss, in September games are 63-105 ATS L/35 seasons for a go against 63% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on the Dallas Cowboys to cover |
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09-23-18 | Chargers v. Rams -7 | 23-35 | Win | 100 | 72 h 9 m | Show | |
The Rams were dominant last week in a 34-0 win vs Arizona, and have won their first two games convincingly and enter this game against cross town rivals the San Diego Chargers with a full head of steam that will be hard to stop. Note: Teams like the Rams that allowed no more than six first downs last game like the Rams did are 45-16-2  ATS including 9-1 ATS L/10.Since moving to LA, the Rams are 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS as favorites of more than 3 points under head coach Sean McVay and get the nod to add positive numbers into those columns here today. Chargers are 3-7 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.Chargers are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.Chargers are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games in September.Chargers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.Chargers are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games in Week 3. NFL Home favorites (LA RAMS) - in non-conference games, off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival are 27-7 ATS L/10 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the LA Rams to cover |
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09-23-18 | 49ers v. Chiefs UNDER 56 | 27-38 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 26 m | Show | |
KC has put up some big offensive numbers so far this season, well above what their season average will be going forward in my humble opinion. Their anomaly output on offence and horrendous defensive performance have now tainted this Total. In two games they have scored 80 points and allowed 65. They scored against perceived good teams, and took a lot of blows, but everything eventually reverts back to the mean, and todays opponent does not set up to end looking for shootout especially on the road. SF despite of having a quality QB at the helm of their offence just does not inspire me to be an explosive offensive team and their defence is capable as well. With that said, his total is beatable on the under. The Chiefs were listed as 4.5  dogs last week vs Pittsburgh  but have gone under 11 straight times  when the line is at least five points lower than in their last game, and  have not eclipsed the Total in 14 tries at home coming off a game where they covered.The Chiefs are 0-12-1 OU  since 1996  as a favorite coming off a road win that went over the total by at least 14 points . KANSAS CITY is 10-1 UNDER  after scoring 25 points or more in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons. HC Reid is 11-0 UNDER in home games after 2 straight games where 50 total points or more were scored in all games he has coached in his career with a total combined average 30 ppg going on the board. NFL Any team against the total (SAN FRANCISCO) - after a win by 6 or less points against opponent after 2 straight games where 60 total points or more were score are 22-3 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. NFL games with a Total of  56 or more pts have gone under 5 of the L/6 times in Week 15 or less. Play UNDER |
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09-23-18 | Titans v. Jaguars OVER 39.5 | 9-6 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 57 m | Show | |
The Jaguars put 31 points up against a solid New England defence last week, and are now running into this tilt vs Tennessee with a boatload full of confidence and feeling ready to dominate opponents with some swagger. Both teams have some injuries on offence with RB Fourette less than 100% and  Titans QB Mariota also nursing a nagging injury. But both should play and even if they do not I'm expecting their replacements to help facilitate a fairly high scoring affair as compared to what the lines makers expect as per my power rankings output estimates suggest. The L/5 meetings in this series have all been listed with fairly low opening totals attached to them, but those meetings combined for an average combined scoring output of 54.4 ppg . It must be noted that Week Three undefeated  home chalk of  3 pts or more are 17-4 OVER L/21 and 6-0 L/6 overall. : All game 2 NFL games with a Total of less than 41 points 32-9-1 OVER L/12 seasons. NFL  team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (JACKSONVILLE) - good offensive team from last season - scored 24 or more points/game are 32-9 OVER L/10seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play OVER |
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09-23-18 | Raiders +3.5 v. Dolphins | 20-28 | Loss | -115 | 69 h 36 m | Show | |
Miami has started  2-0 but I can't say its been very impressive. Meanwhile the Raiders despite of being 0-2 have played better in my opinion. They did not look put of place vs a powerful looking Rams team in week 1 and  than lost a heart breaker last week to Denver after blowing a 19-10 lead heading into the 4th quarter. This is a good spot for the Raiders to cover and be competitive vs a Fins team that are 2-9-1 ATS L/12 as a home favorite. Raiders are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games in Week 3.Raiders are 4-1-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up loss.Raiders are 3-1-2 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.Raiders are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games in September. Dolphins are 16-45-3 ATS in their last 64 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Dolphins are 1-4-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.Dolphins are 4-22 ATS in their last 26 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.Dolphins are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in Week 3. OAKLAND is 23-9 ATS L/32 in road games after a loss by 6 or less points.MIAMI is 6-20 ATS  off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog. Road teams (OAKLAND) - off a loss against a division rival, in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 3 or more straight losses are 39-15 ATS L/35 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Oakland Raiders to cover |
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09-23-18 | Packers v. Redskins +3 | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 27 h 17 m | Show | |
Let me start by saying that NFL away teams, coming off a tie in their previous game, are 0-13 SU  L/13 times. dating back to 1988. So history does not favour the Green Bay Packers here this week in Washington. With  Green Bays super star Aaron Rodgers knee banged up and less than 100% the Packers look like weak favs in this spot.  Rodgers was sacked 4 times last week, and Im not sold on his ability to play favouring his knee which will inhibit his mobility. Also the Packers a a whole, are in a emotional  letdown situation after controlling their last game for 3 quarters before falling apart and settling for a lucky OT tie. Look for Skins defensive coordinator Greg Manusky to be ready to pressure Rodgers this Sunday . Note: Redskins coach Jay Gruden believes the key to controlling Rodgers is to bring pressure.QUOTE" "The most important thing is that you've got to make him uncomfortable in the pocket," Gruden said. "If you give him time to move around and buy time, and find a second, third option, or fifth or sixth option because he's scrambling around, he's going to dice you up. "The team's that have had success, which aren't very many, they pressure him, and that's the key." END QUOTE: NFL Favorites (GREEN BAY) - team with a poor scoring defense last season - allowed 24 or more points/game, after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored are 15-39 ATS in the followup dating back 35 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on Washington to cover |
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09-20-18 | Jets v. Browns OVER 39 | 17-21 | Loss | -114 | 50 h 37 m | Show | |
I was mildly surprised to Cleveland favoured by a FG or more when I looked at the early lines. They were -1 favs last year, vs the Colts, their only game as chalk ,  and that game flew over the total with 59 combined points going on the scoreboard. Despite of my initial observations I did concede that they have improved since last season, and the offence when given enough time should jell behind some improved parts and if they don't shoot themselves in the foot should have a chance to cover here tonight. However with this being the bad news/luck Browns Ill sit and wait this one on out for a side perspective. With that said, I am betting the Browns score in excess of 24 points here tonight while the Jets a team that scored 48 points in their opener should be good for around 21 points based on my varied power rankings in this spot. It must be noted that the L/6 times the Jets saw a less than 41 point total posted in their road games , that they have stayed  OVER each time. NFL non-division home chalk like the Browns in Thursday night NFL tilts have  gone OVER  11 of the L/12 times  when the Total is in the range of 39 to 50 points. NFL Game Threes are 32-9-1 OVER since 2012 when the  Total is listed at less than 41 points and have Gove OVER 18 of the L/22 times when the home team is favoured. NFL team against the total (CLEVELAND) - off a road cover where the team lost as an underdog, in the first half of the season are 31-10 OVER L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate on the blind. NFL Road teams against the total (NY JETS) - off a loss against a division rival, in the first half of the season are 45-17 OVERL/5 seasons  for a 73% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on the  OVER |
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09-16-18 | Patriots -1 v. Jaguars | 20-31 | Loss | -107 | 81 h 14 m | Show | |
The Jags enter this game jacked up and ready to get revenge vs the Pats for last seasons play off elimination loss. But it must be noted that the Pats are not easily intimidated as is evident by a long standing trend that has shown them to be good bets in this situation. Note:the Patriots are 8-0 ATS when the line is within 3.5points of pick and their opponent is seeking revenge for a  post season defeat . You have also remember that the Pats are the healthiest they have been in a long time and Gronkowski is said to be 100% which is a dangerous situation for all comers in the NFL. QB Tom Brady also looks like he's on a mission and off a stellar performance in week 1 vs the Texans. Not a good omen for a  Jacksonville side that is 0-14 ATS when hosting a non-divisional op-ponent that is getting more than 65% of their first downs through the air. NEW ENGLAND is 16-4 ATS  after playing a game at home over the last 3 seasons. NEW ENGLAND is 8-0 ATS  as a road favorite of 7 points or less over the last 3 seasons.  England is 11-1 SU L/12 meetings in this series. Play on New England to cover |
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09-16-18 | Cardinals +14 v. Rams | 0-34 | Loss | -130 | 77 h 1 m | Show | |
The Rams did not look completely cohesive last week in their win vs the Oakland Raiders. I  know they won by DDs, but their was still some issues especially early on in that tilt. This week against another side that is not considered very good, Im betting the Rams struggle again, to cover this big number even though they are at home. Arizona in their game vs Washington last week looked asleep at the wheel, mostly in the first half and allowed 30 first downs losing by a 24-6 count.That was the bad news, but the good news from a historical standpoint shows us that the  Cardinals are 13-0 ATS  L/13 as a underdog coming off a game where they allowed at least 22 first downs . Also the Cards D looked to get their footing in that loss last week, allowing just 3 points in the 2nd half which will give them stopping momentum coming into this tilt. Arizona has covered 6 straight as road opening underdogs. NFL Underdogs of 10.5 or more points (ARIZONA) - after a loss by 14 or more points against opponent after scoring 30 points or more last game are 24-5 ATS L/10 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on the Arizona Cards to cover |
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09-16-18 | Cardinals v. Rams UNDER 45.5 | 0-34 | Win | 100 | 76 h 39 m | Show | |
The Cards have its of new key offensive weapons that need to time to get acclimated and gain chemistry, and I expect they will play this game conservatively behind a strong D, that despite of giving up 26 totals points in a loss last week allowed only 3 points in the 2nd half. I expect their D to once again stand tall vs the explosive Rams here today, while their own offense does a lot of field goal damage but very limited TD production. This Im betting will see this contest stay on the low side of the number. This series has gone under 6 straight times . More of the same here. NFL Division chalk  of 11 points or more like the Rams  have gone  UNDER 8 straight times when the Total is  48 or less points. All Week Two underdogs who scored 10 pts roles as hosts In their first game are 9-1 UNDER dating back 5 seasons. NFL Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (ARIZONA) - good rushing defense from last season - allowed 90 or less rushing yards/game, in conference games are 24-5 UNDER L/35 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play UNDER |
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09-16-18 | Colts v. Redskins UNDER 47 | 21-9 | Win | 100 | 74 h 49 m | Show | |
Alex Smith is type of QB that plays a short conservative style of football, and is well complemented by a quality consistent running game. The Skins coaching staff have implemented this type of game plan into their schemes as was evident in the Arizona win last week by a 24-6 count. Nothing changes this week vs Indianapolis.Smiths teams are  have not gone above the Total in 10 straight tilts when coming off a victory where the QB threw for at least two touchdowns. On the defensive side of the ball, the skins also shined, allowing just 145 passing yards and  213 total yards.The Redskins have gone under 11 straight times  as a favorite after a game where they allowed less than 200 yards through the air.  Im betting the Redksins succeed in slowing this game down to a crawl vs Colts side that has seen their L/7 as dogs stay under the total. Play UNDER |
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09-16-18 | Texans v. Titans +2.5 | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 51 h 20 m | Show | |
Tennessee was smashed  in a 57-14 blowout loss to DeSaun Watson and the Texans last season.Im betting the Titans will have had this game circled for a long time now and be out looking for revenge and very primed for payback. Titans QB Marcus Mariota suffered an elbow injury in the 27-20 loss to the Dolphins last week but appeared on track to start against Houston after practicing fully on Wednesday , and will be ready to lead his team. Pros don't like to be embarrassed and Im betting on the avenging home team getting what they want here and that is redemption. TENNESSEE is 11-3 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons. NFL Road teams vs. the money line (HOUSTON) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 4 or more straight losses, team that had a terrible record last season (25% or less ) playing a team had a winning record last year are 2-30 L/25 seasons for a go against 94% conversion rate for bettors. Take the points with the Tennessee Titans to cover |
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09-16-18 | Browns v. Saints UNDER 50 | 18-21 | Win | 100 | 73 h 26 m | Show | |
I think their has been an over reaction to New Orleans ugly outing in game 1 , when they lost in a 48-40 shootout vs Tampa Bay. Now after that PTSD type experience, I expect the Saints to be concentrated on taking care of the ball, vs a tough physical looking Cleveland defense that is very under rated. Meanwhile, Cleveland despite of having some new offensive weapons in their tool box will take time to get those key pieces hitting on all cylinders, and for now will a lot quieter than some the pundits expect. With that said, Im betting on this combined score staying on the low side of the Total.All Week Two NFL  home favorites of  8 points  or more  Totals line of 38 pts or more have gone under in 12 of the L/14 tilts dating back 8 seasons. Note: New Orleans has gone under in 9 straight games as  chalk  off a loss when they are facing a non-divisional opponent that has a third down conversion percentage less than 35.3%. Play UNDER |
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09-16-18 | Eagles v. Bucs UNDER 44 | 21-27 | Loss | -107 | 73 h 52 m | Show | |
 Tampa Bay took part in a crazy shootout out last week in New Orleans winning 48 -40 for a 88 totals points explosion .  Now everyone and his dog is looking at the OVER. The linesmakers however, know better as they  have key stats right in front of them, while the squares don't. This is a bait Total in my opinion, and offers up value to the under wagerer.  It must be noted that NFL teams who allowed 40 or more points as visitors last week  went under in 14 of their next 17 games. Also  all  NFL teams after away tilt   vs the New Orleans Saints  when the Total is 46 or less points have gone under 15 of the L/18 times. With the Eagles short handed on offence with QB Wentz and some key cogs out, they are playing a lot more conservatively , as was the case in their opener In holding decent  Atlanta offence to just 12 points. Im betting on more of the same action here, in what will be a lower scoring affair. NFL Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (PHILADELPHIA) - good rushing defense from last season - allowed 90 or less rushing yards/game, in conference games are 24-5 UNDER L/35 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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09-16-18 | Vikings v. Packers +4.5 | 29-29 | Win | 100 | 6 h 27 m | Show | |
The Green Bay Packers have double revenge on board for a pair of losses they suffered to Minnesota last season. With super star QB Aaron Rodgers upgraded to probable Sunday the Packers have a good chance to get some payback and redemption here today at Lam-beau Field. Note : Aaron Rodgers is  11-0 SU and 9-2 ATS at home during the first six games of the season. NFL Home teams vs. the money line (GREEN BAY) - good passing team from last season - had a completion pct of 60% or better, after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game are 30-4 SU L/10 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on the Green Bay Packers to cover |
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09-16-18 | Eagles -3 v. Bucs | 21-27 | Loss | -109 | 6 h 59 m | Show | |
Philly is off a Thursday night win vs Atlanta (18-12). Which is a good omen for their oppostion today today as defending champions are 24-6 straight up in tilts when  off a Thursday night contests, including 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS the last seven overall. Meanwhile, the Bucks are off an explosive effort and win vs New Orleans in their first game by a 48-40 count  as underdogs behind the arm of veteran QB Fitzgerald. Unfortunately for Bugs supporters a repeat type performance Im betting are not in the cards as Fitzgerald has a history of a down performance after his team took a straight up win as pups going 1-10 SU/ATS in the follow up .TAMPA BAY is also  0-6 ATS  off 1 or more straight overs over the last 2 seasons losing by an average of 6.1 ppg. TAMPA BAY is 1-9 ATS  after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored over the last 3 seasons. TB 19.5 Opp 26.9 (- TD + Diff) PHILADELPHIA is 7-0 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons average margin of victory 10 ppg. Tampa Bay is 4-17 SU all-time against defending Super Bowl champions. NFL team (TAMPA BAY) - off a win over a division rival as an underdog of 6 or more point are just 5-26 SU L/5 seasons in the followup . Team 26.5 Opp 16.9. Play on the Philadelphia Eagles to cover |
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09-09-18 | Bears +8.5 v. Packers | 23-24 | Win | 100 | 86 h 55 m | Show | |
The Packers have owned the  Bears over the last couple of seasons.  With the Vikings on board next week , for the Cheese Heads a look ahead situation vs a top tier  Minnesota Vikings team could mess with the coaching staff and players being fully prepared for this tilt. The Bears talent level is increasing and their ability to even pull off a straight up victory here on the road should not be underestimated . Look for a Bears defence that was already solid in the past to be even tougher now with Khalil Mack in the fold, and for the usually conservative offence under the tutelage of new HC and former KC offensive coordinator Matt Nagy to  be  much more cohesive behind the arm of the talented QB Mitch Trubisky. NFL Home favorites (GREEN BAY) - team that had a losing record last season, in conference games are 87-141 L/34 seasons for a go against 62% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on the Chicago Bears to cover |
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09-09-18 | Bears v. Packers OVER 47 | 23-24 | Push | 0 | 80 h 19 m | Show | |
The combination of a new coach with offensive tendencies at the helm of the Chicago Bears gives me confidence they can do some damage here tonight. Also as  is almost always the case an Aaron Rodgers led offence should as well  be more capable of making some noise here tonight in Cheeseville. My projections have both Green Bay and Chicago putting up more than 20 points. GREEN BAY is 7-0 OVER when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 2 seasons with the average combined score clicking in at 54.5 ppg. The Packers have gone over 16 straight times  as a favorite of more than six points vs a team with the same record with no game seeing less than 50 points go on the board.Week One DIVISION home favorites of 1 or more points with an OU line of  42 or more  pts and  53 or less pts have gone under 8 of the L/9 times. Play OVER |
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09-09-18 | Seahawks v. Broncos UNDER 43.5 | 24-27 | Loss | -119 | 80 h 4 m | Show | |
The lines makers expect this to be a closely contested game with one mistake possibly costing the other side to lose. Expect both to play conservatively and for defence to be at the forefront. In preseason play Denver allowed less points each time out, and the defence looks stable and on a upward trajectory heading into their home opener.  Seattle has ben a defence first team for a long time and nothing changes today Both have trouble scoring at the best of times, and this tilt will be no different. Defence , Defence and more Defence. Under is 5-1 in Seahawks last 6 road games . Under is 5-2 in Broncos last 7 games overall. SEATTLE is 31-13 L/44 UNDER  in road games in September games with the average combined score with a combined average of 33.7 ppg going on the board. NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (DENVER) - good rushing defense from last season - allowed 90 or less rushing yards/game are 62-29 UNDER L/34 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play UNDER |
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09-09-18 | Chiefs +3.5 v. Chargers | 38-28 | Win | 100 | 75 h 8 m | Show | |
The Chargers started slow last season, losing their first 4 games  and despite of wanting to get off to a better start this season will be hard pressed to do so, vs a under rated KC Chiefs team that is well coached and capable of making life difficult for them. From a historical perspective the Chiefs have covered 5 straight here in Southern California , and from a league wide trends data base it must be noted that NFL Favorites (LA CHARGERS) - first 2 weeks of the year, non-playoff team from prior season who won their last 2 games are 4-23 ATSL/10 seasons for a go against 85% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Add to that Andy Reid is 5-1 ATS in the first month of the reg season in his L/6 divisional classes and we have a live dog to back here. KANSAS CITY is 10-2 ATS  versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons. KC to cover |
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09-09-18 | Steelers v. Browns UNDER 44.5 | 21-21 | Win | 100 | 77 h 23 m | Show | |
The Steelers enter this game against the Cleveland Browns with recent history of playing more conservatively on the road than at home especially when favoured. The Steelers  have not gone OVER  in 13 straight games (0-12-1 O/U) over the L/ 2seasons  as -3 or more road chalk  . Today they do go against a Cleveland team that should be more cohesive offensively as the season progresses and the new pieces jell thanks to some of the top tier talent they have added, but for now their a work and progress and recently the Browns have seen only 1 of their L/12 home games eclipse the total with a combined average of just 35.6 ppg scored. Here in week 1 I expect a defensive type North division affair that stays on the low side of the number. PITTSBURGH is 6-0 UNDER in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.PITTSBURGH is 11-2 UNDER  in road games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 39.4 ppg scored.CLEVELAND is 6-0 UNDER  in home games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 32 ppg scored. Injury updates that Im betting effect this total score.[WR] 08/03/2018 - Antonio Brown is probable Sunday vs Cleveland ( Quad) Not 100% [RB] 09/03/2018 - Le'Veon Bell is doubtful Sunday vs Cleveland. Play UNDER |
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09-09-18 | 49ers +7 v. Vikings | 16-24 | Loss | -130 | 76 h 22 m | Show | |
Minnesota is off an amazing season, going 13-3 SU and now once again look like one of the deepest teams in the conference. But it must be noted that teams in week 1 with 4 or fewer losses (including playoffs)last season are 35-48-2 ATS and far from sure bets coming into the following campaign. Also teams in week one at home who won 7 or 8 games (including playoffs) last season are just 30-41-1 ATS  L/72. Add to that Minnesota will have a new QB in Cousins who is 0-3 SU/ATS in home openers at the helm of the offence and it may take time to find his groove, behind a offensive line with some weaknesses Note: Nick Easton, the starting left guard and backup center, is out for the season after undergoing surgery to repair a bulging disk in his neck. This is also a  pivot that has shown a lot of inconsistencies in the past .Meanwhile, San Francisco finished last season winning their L/5 games, and must not be underestimated on the road where they have played their best football of late as is evident by a 7-2 ATS mark in their L/9 away. Note: 49ers QB Jimmy Garappolo (7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS as a starter). 49ers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games in week 1. Vikings are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC. Play on the SF 49ers to cover |
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09-09-18 | Titans v. Dolphins +2 | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 76 h 37 m | Show | |
This is a weak road favorite we are seeing here with Tennessee. Despite of being in the post season last year, the Titans were lucky to be there after being out stated and out scored overall by a total of 38 points on the season. It must be noted that Tennessee has not fared well  in the past against AFC opposition  failing to cash in 7 of their L/8 ATS . Meanwhile Miami is 4-1 SU and a perfect  5-0 ATS L/5 in season openers . Tennessee was 0-4 in the preseason  which is not a good omen for a sudden turnaround today vs a desperate Miami team with a veteran QB at the helm in Tannehill. TENNESSEE is 112-146 ATS  against conference opponents since 1992. Home teams in week one in games with a total of  46 or more are 48- 35-2 ATS. Teams in week 1 which lost 10 or more games last season against a team that did not lose more than 9 games are 106-67-2 ATS L/175 . Play on the Miami Dolphins to cover |
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09-09-18 | Jaguars v. Giants UNDER 43.5 | 20-15 | Win | 100 | 65 h 13 m | Show | |
Last season the Giants struggled to score putting up just 16 ppg , going against a tough Jacksonville D that allowed 18 points a game last season, Im betting the Gmens  offence begins this season struggling again. With that said, look for a low scoring affair that stays on the low side of the Total.  All Week One teams who won 4 or less games last year vs an AFC opponent when the OU line is in the range of 42-49 points are 4-17-1 UNDER since the 2006 campaign. ( Giants qualify)All Week One NFC home dogs like the Giants are 4-17 L/21  UNDER dating back to the 2014 season. Week One non division road chalk like the Jags are 8-27-1 UNDER L/19 seasons. NY GIANTS are 22-11 UNDER  in all lined games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average score of 38.7 ppg going on the board.NY GIANTS are 16-6 UNDER as an underdog over the last 3 seasons with a combined average score of 37.7 ppg going on the board. Play UNDER |
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02-04-18 | Eagles v. Patriots -4.5 | 41-33 | Loss | -109 | 219 h 42 m | Show | |
Super Bowl 52 - US Bank Stadium - Minneapolis, MN New England's super star QB Tom Brady despite of being able to perform miracle after football miracle, via amazing comebacks,  must finally be feeling like he and his team mates need to play a complete start to finish game, and stop messing around with fate. With that said, I expect the 40 year old  Phenom, to be extremely focused and prepared to lay down a big beat down vs a Philadelphia side that is over matched and in an emotional letdown situation after surprising Minnesota in DD blowout in  their Conference championship game .That aforementioned victory  saw the Eagles exert a lot of energy in a stadium that was rocking and shaking all night long with  extremely exuberant fans. The Party in the City of brotherly love, after wards was enormous, and the players now exhausted and ready to go into Super Bowl preparations, will now be even more drained by the time game time arrives.  Now against what I am betting is a very focused and experienced  Patriots team that been here before,  I expect we will see their superior overall talent in most facets of this game, including the all important Head Coach position on full display this Sunday. Everyone loves an underdog, but when push comes to shove, the defending champs must be respected on any line of a TD or less and are my pick to win and cover and get yet another Super Bowl ring. NEW ENGLAND is 11-1 ATS L/12 versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.65 or more  yards/play and is 10-1 ATS  L/11  vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game. Belichick is 16-4 ATS L20 vs. dominant ball control teams, 32+ minutes TOP, 21+ FD's per game. PHILADELPHIA is 0-6 ATS  L/6 in road games vs teams - allowing 350 or more yards/game. NFL team (PHILADELPHIA) - off an upset win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season are 97-169 ATS L/34 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Update: I know the Pats previous Super Bowl wins have been close, but I'm betting that won't be the case this time around. Note: the straight-up winner of the Super Bowl is 43-6-2 ATS L/51. Play on the New England Patriots to cover |
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01-21-18 | Vikings v. Eagles +3.5 | 7-38 | Win | 100 | 143 h 27 m | Show | |
NFC Championship Game
The Vikings are off a story book walk off win vs the New Orleans Saints last week. Now in a huge emotional letdown situation, I'm betting they will have problems dealing with a very under rated Philadelphia side that is being disrespected by many in the media. I know QB Nick Foles is not as good as the injured Carson Wentz, but he is still a viable enough NFL QB to be able to help his team move the chains. It must also be noted that the Eagles D, are no pushovers, ranking 4th in the league during the regular season allowing just 18.4 ppg and will give the Vikings offense a battle that they will not easily over come. With that said, I'm recommending we take the points in a game that could easily be decided by a late FG. PHILADELPHIA is 7-0 ATS  L/7 versus good rushing defenses - allowing 90 or less rushing yards/game. PHILADELPHIA is 8-0 ATS  L/8 in home games after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread . MINNESOTA is 4-13 ATS  L/17 after leading their last 3 games by 7+ points at the half. Philadelphia is 5-1 SU/ATS L/6 at home in this series. NFL Home teams (PHILADELPHIA) - off a upset win as an underdog, in a game involving two top-level teams (75% or better) are 26-8 ATS L/34 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Philadelphia to cover |
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01-21-18 | Jaguars v. Patriots -8.5 | 20-24 | Loss | -105 | 140 h 20 m | Show | |
The Steelers looked ahead to what they thought would be a meeting with the New England Pats, and were left flat lined in their game against Jacksonville last Sunday. You would think the Jaguars would have learned their lesson and remained humble after posting the upset and Game and advancing to the AFC Championship Game . But it looks like they have not, as their already chirping in social media about taking New England out this week, and advancing to the Super Bowl. I like the Jaguars , but in no way shape or form do they matchup well against the Pats, and are fade material in this spot at 10 points or less according to my power rankings.
Update: No one knows how serious the supposed injury to Tom Brady's hand is, but one thing for sure, its not as bad as HC Billicheck and company are playing it up to be. This HC is the king of mind games, which makes me doubt the seriousness of this clip to Brady's hand in what was described as  a very light  collision in practice. New England has won 7 straight meetings in this series at home. Play on the Patriots to cover |
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01-14-18 | Saints v. Vikings -4 | 24-29 | Win | 100 | 105 h 49 m | Show | |
NFC Divisional Playoffs Minnesota has impressed me this season with their brand of smash mouth football, and offensive production. The Vikings rank No.1 in overall scoring and defense and out gained 14 of their L/16 opponents this season, showing us their dominance in the process. They owned the stats battle entering this tilt vs the Saints, going 11-1 SU, 10-2 ATS and out yarded 11 of their L/12 opponents. With that said, I look for a the Vikings to come out here and move forward in explosive fashion as they attempt to host this years Super Bowl, (a first in NFL history). It must be noted that HC Mike Zimmer is a cover machine going 32-9 ATS lifetime vs non NFC North sides, including an amazing 18-3 ATS as hosts. Meanwhile, New Orleans despite of a strong campaign overall, reverted back to what my early season projections had suggested. Those estimations made the Saints an above average team , but not a over powering one. Their late season dive I'm betting is more indicative of their true abilities as they were just 2-5 ATS down the stretch and lost the stats battle in the 5 ATS losses. MINNESOTA is 13-4 ATS L/17 versus good offensive teams - averaging 350 or more yards/game .MINNESOTA is 8-1 ATS in dome games this season.MINNESOTA is 9-0 ATS L/9 off a win against a division rival.MINNESOTA is 17-4 ATS L/21 after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread. HC Zimmer is 24-8 ATS in home games and is 17-6 ATS L/23 as a home favorite of 7 points or less. NFL Road underdogs or pick (NEW ORLEANS) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 15-36 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 70% for bettors. The Vikings are 17-0 ATS /16-1 SU at home off a game as a favorite in which they converted at least five third downs with the average margin of victory coming 17.6 ppg and average cover by 12.97 ppg. Lay the points with Minnesota to cover |
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01-14-18 | Jaguars +7.5 v. Steelers | 45-42 | Win | 100 | 53 h 57 m | Show | |
The Jacksonville Jaguars (10-6)  visit Heinz Field to play the Pittsburgh Steelers (13-3) in the Sunday's AFC Divisional Round. The Jaguars upset the Steelers 30-9 in Week 5 as 7.5-point road pups, behind rookie running back Leonard Fournette who had a season-high 181 yards and two touchdowns . The Jacksonville D, was also out standing and they all over Roethlisberger, as was evident by the veteran QB throwing 5 picks and getting sacked twice. Note:Roethlisberger was quick to praise the Jaguars' defense this week.QUOTE:"This is one of the best defenses I've ever played against," Roethlisberger said. END QUOTE: The Steelers finished the season ranked third in the NFL in passing yardage, with the Jaguars first in pass defense. The Jags also limited RB Le'Veon Bell to 47 yards on 15 carries n the above mentioned upset they pulled. Now fast forward to this matchup, and things may not get all that much better for the Steelers here against a team that style wise matches up very well against them. While I doubt Roethlisberger will as bad this time around, I'm betting the Steelers will not have an easy go of it against solid Jaguars D, and  an the leagues No.1 run offense that when in gear can chew up a lot of yards on the ground and make life miserable for their opposition. Considering what my power rankings and matchup system vs system estimations suggest, a tilt that is a one possession game is a high probability outcome, which the linesmakers agree with me about. Thus taking a TD+ with the underdog makes for a viable wagering opportunity. Jaguars are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 vs. AFC.Steelers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games.Steelers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win. Jags are 4-1 ATS L/5 visits to Pittsburgh. NFL Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (JACKSONVILLE) - average passing team (5.9-6.7 PYA) against an average passing defense (5.9-6.7 PYA) after 8+ games, after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game are 73-38 L/34 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on the Jacksonville Jaguars to cover |
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01-13-18 | Falcons v. Eagles UNDER 41.5 | 10-15 | Win | 100 | 80 h 10 m | Show | |
Atlanta's top tier D ranked 8th in the league, I'm betting will give Philadelphia interim QB Foles fits this week. It must be noted Foles owns a lowly 27.8 QB rating according to the NFL official website, compared to the injured star Wentz's 75.8 QB rating. Meanwhile, Philadelphia despite of their big numbers with Wentz under center, also had a under appreciated D this season, ranking 4th overall in the league allowing 18.4 ppg and are more than capable of slowing the Falcons 15th ranked offensive attack and  QB Ryan this this week.  With that said, I'm expecting an old school type of tilt with a lot of smash mouth football and ground heavy football, that culminates in a lower scoring affair that remains on the low side of the Total. ATLANTA is 9-1 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record this season with a combined average of 37.3 ppg scored. ATLANTA is 6-0 UNDER vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game this season and is 7-1 UNDER versus top tier offensive teams - averaging 350 or more yards/game this season.ATLANTA is 10-0 UNDER off 4 or more consecutive unders over the last few seasons with a combined average of 36.9 ppg scored.PHILADELPHIA is 6-0 UNDER  L/6 in home games off a division game and 22-9 UNDER  L/31 after a bye week with the combined average score clicking in at 39.7 ppg. NFL team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (PHILADELPHIA) - good rushing team - averaging 130 or more rushing yards/game, after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games are 29-9 UNDER 35 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for Totals bettors. The Falcons are 13-0 UNDER  vs a non-divisional opponent when they are off a win as a dog in which they had fewer than 10 incompletions non of the 13 tilts eclipsed the 41 point plateau, with the combined average score clicking in at 34.2 ppg. Play UNDER |
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01-07-18 | Panthers v. Saints OVER 48.5 | 26-31 | Win | 100 | 94 h 3 m | Show | |
NFC Wildcard Playoffs The Saints have averaged 30 plus points at home this season, and I'm betting they will come close to that average here again behind star QB Drew Brees and a strong core of receivers. Meanwhile, QB Cam Newton and company will have to respond and open up the playbook or be blown out , which will result in a high scoring affair that eclipses the number. I know the media is telling us what a fine duo of defenses will be playing each other, in the post season matchup, but it must be noted that Carolina was out yarded by -35 net YPG in the second half of the season, and the Saints were out yarded in their final 6 games. NEW ORLEANS in their L/7 games vs. excellent ball control teams, 32 or more possession minutes/game have seen a combined average score of 60.6 ppg scored. CAROLINA is 9-0 OVER  vs. poor punt return teams, less than 7.5 yards per return with a combined average of 59.7 ppg scored. CAROLINA is 8-0 OVER  L/8 vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 6+ PPG on the season with a combined average of with a combined average of 54.7 ppg going on the board.CAROLINA is 11-2 OVER L/13 in games played on turf with a combined average of 57.6 ppg scored. HC Rivera is 17-4 OVER  L/21 vs. very good offensive teams - scoring 27 or more points/game with a combined average of 57.6 ppg scored. The Panthers are 15-0 OU, eclipsing the total by an average of 12 ppg  since Ron Rivera became their coach in 2011 as a dog of more than six points. with a combined average of 57.9 ppg scored Play on the OVER |
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01-06-18 | Falcons +7 v. Rams | 26-13 | Win | 100 | 73 h 56 m | Show | |
NFC Wildcard Playoffs The Falcons have big game play off experience while the key man under center Jared Goff for the Rams does not . It must be noted that first start QBs in the post season are just 11-27 SU/ATS L/15 seasons.  The Falcons are ranked top 10 in both Defense and offense. ATLANTA is 6-0 ATS L/6 against NFC West division opponents dating back to last season. Play on Atlanta to cover |
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12-31-17 | Panthers v. Falcons -3.5 | 10-22 | Win | 100 | 51 h 39 m | Show | |
The Atlanta Falcons need a victory more than the Carolina Panthers do when the teams meet in the regular-season final Sunday at Mercedes-Benz Stadium and will be the more motivated of these two teams this Sunday. The Falcons (9-6) can clinch the final NFC wild-card spot with a victory. |
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12-25-17 | Steelers v. Texans UNDER 45 | 34-6 | Win | 100 | 95 h 20 m | Show | |
The Steelers enter this game off a heart breaking loss to New England this past Sunday, and have now just completed three straight grueling games, vs Cincinnati and Baltimore and as mentioned above the Patriots last week. I really can't see them having a lot left in the tank and expect a subdued conservative effort from them this week offensively vs a Texas team that they have had a recent history of low scoring affairs against in Houston with a combined average of 30.5 ppg getting scored . With the Texans struggling to score with outputs of 16,13,16,7 points respectively in their L/4 games, I'm betting their futility remains intact against one of the leagues better defenses. On the season, the Steelers  have yet to eclipse the number in away games during this campaign with a combined average of 36.6 ppg going on the board. Also 9 or more point road favs have seen their games stay under in 16 of the L/17 tilts if the Total is 37 or more . PITTSBURGH is 11-1 UNDER  L/12 versus struggling  defensive teams - allowing 350 yards/game or more with a combined average of 40.5 ppg scored. PITTSBURGH is 11-2 UNDER  as a road favorite over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 39.9 ppg scored. HOUSTON is 8-1 UNDER  vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att. in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average 33.9 ppg scored. NFL Road teams against the total (PITTSBURGH) - after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, a top-level team (75% or better) playing a team with a losing record are 26-5 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for Totals bettors. Play UNDER |
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12-24-17 | Jaguars v. 49ers +4.5 | 33-44 | Win | 100 | 70 h 25 m | Show | |
The SF 49ers are showing some life here late in the season behind, QB jim Garroppolo who is a perfect 5-0 as a starter in the NFL, after last weeks victory vs a stunned Tennessee Titans. Note: Garoppolo is completing 68.7 percent of his passes for 1,026 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions for a passer rating of 98.0.Today against a Jacksonville, team feeling relaxed after clinching a play off spot , I'm betting the Niners shine again, and get us a cover. NFL Road teams (JACKSONVILLE) - after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record are a long term losing proposition going just 43-79 ATS L/34 seasons for a go against 65% conversion rate on the blind. Jacksonville is 2-19 SU L/21 in the first of two straight scheduled road games and are 1-9 ATS in their L/10 games after exploding for 40 or more points, which they did last week. Jacksonville is also 3-17 ATS L/20 vs NFC opposition and 1-11 ATS mark vs NFC west foes including 0-5 ATS on the highway.JACKSONVILLE is 4-16 ATS L/20 after allowing 200 or less total yards in their previous game. SF is 4-1 ATS L/5 in this series. Play on the SF 49ers to cover |
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12-24-17 | Lions v. Bengals +5 | 17-26 | Win | 100 | 66 h 58 m | Show | |
After an abusive nasty and physical affair vs the Steelers 3 weeks ago, that saw the Bengals blow a DD lead and eventually lose, they came out with a physical and emotional hang over and crapped in their own beds in their last two trips to the gridiron. Now rested and their PTSD, on the wain I expect they will give their home town fans and management some satisfaction with a strong effort in their last game at home this season ( HC Lewis is a perfect 5-0 SU L/5 last home games of the season) I know the men from Motown, are winning of late , but its not like their consistent team . With that said,  I'm recommending we take the host side and the points. DETROIT is 9-25 ATS L/34as a road favorite of 7 points or less and  is 9-27 ATS L/36 in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins NFL team (CINCINNATI) - after scoring 9 points or less in 2 straight games are 39-12 ATS L/10 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Cincinnati Bengals to cover |
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12-24-17 | Dolphins +10.5 v. Chiefs | 13-29 | Loss | -110 | 66 h 37 m | Show | |
The Fins were in an emotional let down situation in Buffalo last week, after beating the defending New England Pats the week before. Now I'm betting the Dr.Jeykell and Mr. Hyde Fins come in here and make life difficult for a Chiefs side that are off a division home win last week. It must be noted that KC is 0-9 ATS L/9 as hosts off a division home victory and off consecutive wins. KANSAS CITY is 0-11 ATS L/11  after gaining 375 or more total yards in 3 consecutive games since 1992. Favorites (KANSAS CITY) - after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a marginal losing team in the second half of the season are 15-38 ATS L/34 seasons, for a go against 72% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Miami Dolphins to cover |
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12-17-17 | Cowboys v. Raiders OVER 45.5 | 20-17 | Loss | -115 | 99 h 24 m | Show | |
The Dallas Cowboys and the Oakland Raiders, go head to head this Sunday night with both sides still clinging to play off hopes. The Cowboys look to be clicking on offense scoring 28 and 30 points in their L/2 games, even with RB Ezekiel Elliot out because of suspension. Cowboys QB Dak Prescott threw for 332 yards last week vs the Giants , and showing he can move the chains through the air. Today against a Raiders secondary that allowed the Chiefs and average of 12.1 yards per passing play last week, Prescott should be ready to get it done and again and put a boatload full of points on the board helping this game go over the number. I know Oakland has not been lighting things up of late offensively, but there is more than enough talent here for them to fight back in desperation, and also put points up on the board. The Raiders are 12-1 L/13 OVER in non division home games with a combined average of 55.1 ppg going on the board . Cowboys are 10-2 L/12 after their D, allowed 10 points or less in their last game. HC Del Rio is 9-2 OVER in home games vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game with a combined average of 53.4 ppg scored.
Play OVER |
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12-17-17 | Patriots -3 v. Steelers | 27-24 | Push | 0 | 100 h 47 m | Show | |
The Steelers are off back to back grueling games and comebacks vs Cincinnati and last week vs the Baltimore Ravens. The game against the Bengals was nasty and extremely physical and 2nd game vs the Ravens while not as ugly was exhausting , which will now have the Steelers on tired legs at the worst possible time. Meanwhile, New England had a 7 game win streak ended at Miami last time out, as Brady and company looked like they were more interested in south Florida vacation rather than their game against the Fins, and it cost them as they lost 27-20 as big road favs on Monday night. What I'm betting will happen in this tilt, is that the Pats will be ready for a bounce back, against a tired side that has worked way to hard of late. NEW ENGLAND is 16-3 ATS  L/19 when playing with 6 or less days rest .NEW ENGLAND is 8-1 ATS L/9 in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5.NEW ENGLAND is 7-0 ATS  L/7 as a road favorite of 7 points or less. NEW ENGLAND is 7-0 ATS  L/7 versus good offensive teams - averaging 350 or more  yards/game . Patriots are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.Steelers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. NFL Favorites (NEW ENGLAND) - after having won 3 out of their last 4 games against opponent hot team, after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games ae 32-8 ATS L/10 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the New England Patriots to cover |
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12-16-17 | Chargers v. Chiefs +1 | 13-30 | Win | 100 | 85 h 38 m | Show | |
All teams go through slumps, including the KC chiefs, who ended a 4 game losing streak with a win last week vs the Oakland Raiders. Now with a little momentum on their sides I'm betting they take out a LA chargers side, that has won 4 straight games. I know Andy Reid's squad may not inspire bettors , but remember this is the NFL, and teams can go form zero to hero very quickly and vice versa. With that said, when using my player to player matchup systems and styles of play, my own analysis likes the way the Chiefs matchup vs the Chargers as was evident on Sept 24 in LA when the Chiefs beat the Chargers 24-10. KC is 7-0 SU L/7 in this series. Chargers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.Chargers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.Chiefs are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. AFC West.Chiefs are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game. NFL teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LA CHARGERS) - revenging a loss against opponent by 14 points or more, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are just 12-35 ATS dating back 34 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 75% for bettors. Play on KC Chiefs to cover |
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12-16-17 | Chargers v. Chiefs UNDER 46 | 13-30 | Win | 100 | 84 h 20 m | Show | |
It's chilly this time of year in KC, and the warm weather Chargers I'm betting will be slowed down by the cool weather . It must be noted that the Chiefs have gone under in 14 of their L/16 home games in December/January. Considering the Chargers are 1-7 UNDER L/8 overall , and own the 2nd ranking scoring D in the NFL  I will not be surprised with a low scoring affair here this week. When these teams played back in Sept the Chiefs took a physical 24-10 win and a similar type of score is not out of the question and according to my numbers a high probability outcome. The Chargers road games this season average just 38.7 combined points per game. KANSAS CITY is 7-0 UNDER  L/7 after scoring 25 points or more in 2 straight games with a combined average of 36.6 ppg scored. Reid is 19-6 UNDER in a home game with KC where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points with a combined average of 39.4 ppg scored  LA CHARGERS is 6-0 UNDER L/6 after 1 or more consecutive wins this season with a combined average of 32.3 ppg scored.LA CHARGERS is 14-4 UNDER L/18 in games where the line is +3 to -3 with a combined average of 40.1 ppg scored. NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (LA CHARGERS) - revenging a home loss against opponent, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% in the second half of the season are 25-7 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the UNDER |
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