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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-13-18 | Ole Miss v. Arkansas +7 | 37-33 | Win | 100 | 59 h 53 m | Show | |
Ole Miss are weak 7 point favs here according to my calculations. Overall this Ole Miss football program have been poor road favs failing to cover 24 of their L/30 in that role. I know they put 70 points up on UL Monroe last week, but their will be a reversion backwards in their output here, and with their defence as atrocious as it is, I expect a Arkansas offence that put 31 point on the board vs Alabama last week do a lot of damage here today in what could easily be a straight up win. t Arkansas is 10-4 SU and 11-3 ATS in this series with Ol Miss of late , and are 6-1 ATS l at home and 6-1 ATS under dogs. the two most recent meetings in this series were decided by 4 and 1 point respectively. ARKANSAS is 21-8 ATS after 3 or more consecutive straight up losses since 1992. ARKANSAS is 25-12 ATS off a blowout loss by 21 points or more to a conference rival since 1992 OLE MISS is 0-6 ATS off a home win by 17 points or more over the last 2 seasonsOLE MISS is 0-6 ATS after outgaining opp by 175 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 3 seasons. Play on Arkansas to cover |
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10-13-18 | Middle Tennessee State +2.5 v. Florida International | 21-24 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 5 m | Show | |
Middle Tennessee State have just won 2 straight as underdogs vs Marshall and Florida Atlantic and being under rated again, and a good bet to cover and even win outright here today vs a Florida International side they matchup well against.Meanwhile, Florida International is being over rated because of big offensive explosions against nasty D, Ark Pine Bluff and Umass and despite of looking offensively cohesive do not matchup well vs a physical Middle Tenn State side that has shown dominance in this series winning 5 of the L/6 meetings. CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MIDDLE TENN ST) - off a double digit road win, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a winning record are 26-6 ATS L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Middle Tennessee State to cover |
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10-13-18 | West Virginia v. Iowa State +7 | 14-30 | Win | 100 | 59 h 57 m | Show | |
A so called third string QB Purdy, marched into Stillwater to face a pretty good Okahoma State football program last week and helped his team pull off a SU win as DD underdogs. This is just not any 3rd string QB, but one that threw for 7700 yards in his last couple of campaigns playing Texas High school ball and who was pursed by a lot of big name teams. After that big win I doubt very much Iowa State will be a in a letdown situation vs what is now one of favorites to win the Big 12 championship, especially here at home. This place will be rocking this week and so will Iowa States offence. It must also be noted that HC Matt Campbell playing as an underdog against opp like the Mountaineers coming off a SUATS victory is 11-1 ATS in conference games including a perfect 5-0 ATS at home. IOWA ST is 11-2 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons. IOWA ST is 9-1 ATS vs. excellent passing teams averaging 8.5 or more passing yards/att. over the last 3 seasons. IOWA ST is 8-0 ATS after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games over the last 2 seasons.Campbell is 11-1 ATS vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse as the coach of IOWA ST. W VIRGINIA is 0-7 ATS after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons. Play on Iowa State to cover |
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10-13-18 | Washington v. Oregon +3 | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 56 h 36 m | Show | |
Washington (no7) is highly ranked, but Im not a true believer in them because of their lack offence as was evident last week in. lazy 7 point win vs a bad UCLA side. This week here on the road against the Ducks I won't be surprised if they are exposed by a under rated Oregon team that is well rested and off a bye and will be primed to pull off a upset. Note: Oregon is 6-0 ATS L/6 with rest) The Ducks are 113-23 SU L/21 seasons at home. OREGON is 29-9 ATS after leading their last 2 games by 14+ points at the half since 1992. CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (OREGON) - in a game involving two dominant teams (outgain opponents by 1.2+ YPP), after gaining 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 36-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on Oregon to cover |
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10-13-18 | Ohio +4 v. Northern Illinois | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 54 h 42 m | Show | |
This game features an explosive offensive team Ohio against a staunch physical defensive team with Northern Illinois. HC Solich is 9-1 ATS versus good defensive teams - allowing 4.5 or less yards/play as the coach of OHIO U. Both these teams are undefeated in MAC play so expect this to be hard fought and closely contested with getting points Im betting being golden. Ohio has covered their L/4 trips to N.Illinois and won 3 of those game SU. CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (OHIO U) - after gaining 525 or more total yards/game over their last 2 games are 47-14 ATS L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Ohio to cover |
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10-13-18 | Army -15 v. San Jose State | 52-3 | Win | 100 | 31 h 9 m | Show | |
This version of Army is for real and a dangerous opponent as top tier teams like Buffalo U and Oklahoma and Navy have already learned this season. A lot of old negative numbers showing Army as bad bets as road favs are now out dated as compared to the group HC Monk has assembled here at West Point this season. I know San Jose State has played decently of late, at least from a competitive stand point, but Im betting their not built to handle Armys triple option attack and that they will get literally run over here today in a big way. San Jose State has given up a whopping 165 ypg on the ground this season. Im not a a long term proponent of constantly laying DD on the road, but some situations warrant such a wager and this is one of them. CFB Road favorites (ARMY) - after outrushing opponent by 100 or more yards in 3 straight games against opponent after being outrushed by 125 or more yards last game are 23-2 ATS L/10 seasons for a 92% conversion rate for bettors with the average combined point differential coming by 28 ppg. CFBA home team vs. the money line (SAN JOSE ST) - after gaining 100 or less rushing yards last game against opponent after outrushing opponent by 100 or more yards in 3 straight games are 3-28 SU L/10 seasons with the average point differential coming in at just under 3 TDS/PA a game (20.9). Play on Army to cover |
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10-13-18 | Akron +12 v. Buffalo | 6-24 | Loss | -106 | 53 h 48 m | Show | |
Zips HC Terry Bowden has already seen his under rated team upset Northwestern this season and then played Iowa State tough in as visitors losing 26-13 but covering as 19.5 point dogs and despite of some down efforts almost always seem on the edge of being better then advertised. I know they lost last week to Miami O in ugly fashion, but in the past they have shown an ability to bounce back going 6-1 ATS as dogs when coming off a SUATS loss.Bowden is 15-6 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread as the coach of AKRON. Meanwhile, Buffalo at 5-1 behind future NFL draft pick 6’7” QB Tyree Jackson (ranked 8th in the nation in TD passes) have looked strong this season in MAC play, but has some alarming numbers attached to their stats tags when it comes to Red Zone Offense efficiency rankings – Bulls are ranked second to last which is interesting considering their offensive output. Meanwhile, the Zips are the leaders in red zone efficiency. With that said, from a matchup perspective, the Zips are viable underdogs in this matchup on this DD line. AKRON is 6-0 ATS when the total is between 49.5 and 56 over the last 2 seasons.Bowden is 6-0 ATS in road games after scoring 17 points or less in 2 straight games as the coach of AKRON. Play on Akron to cover |
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10-13-18 | Iowa -5 v. Indiana | 42-16 | Win | 100 | 51 h 33 m | Show | |
Iowa enters this game as being fairly highly rated in my power rankings within the Big 10 and gets the nod here as short road favorites vs a very inconsistent Indiana side that is just 2-10 ATS against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons. Meanwhile, IOWA is 19-6 ATS L/25 opportunities as a road favorite of 7 points or less . Iowa has owned this series of late with a record of 6-1 SU, and add to that are also 7-0 ATS as conference road favorites of 15 or less points. Everything points to Iowa coming out of this with a win and cover. Iowa is 13-0-1 ATS L/14 as a road favorite when they rushed for at least 50 yards covering by more than 2 TDs a game on average. CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (INDIANA) - after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games against opponent after having won 4 out of their last 5 games are just 5-28 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 85% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Iowa to cover |
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10-12-18 | Arizona +13.5 v. Utah | 10-42 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 32 m | Show | |
The Utes played a heck game vs Stanford last week and pulled off the upset as underdogs, but will now be in a huge letdown situation vs a Arizona team with a clutch QB at the helm Khalil Tate. With USC on board for Utah they may not have their heads completely into this game giving us room for a under appreciated Arizona team that has won 3 of their L/4 to get the cover vs a side that has failed to cover 7 of their L/10 as 7 point chalk or more. CFB Road underdogs (ARIZONA) - good rushing team (190 to 230 RY/game) against an average rushing team (140-190 RY/game) are 119-64 ATS L/10 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on Arizona to cover |
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10-11-18 | Eagles -3 v. Giants | 34-13 | Win | 100 | 81 h 56 m | Show | |
The Eagles are experiencing a Super Bowl hangover and are just 2-3 on the season, despite of being competitive in all 5 games. They have also failed to cover 4 straight for their backers, but must be respected here tonight as they will be very primed to perform at an optimal level after 2 straight losses. Meanwhile, the GMen have played well above their heads, so far , but are still just 1-4 SU and after their heartbreaking 33-31 loss last week in Carolina thanks to a nearly impossible 62 yard walk off FG. Im now betting the Giants will now be in an enormous letdown situation on short rest, which favours a hungry superior side. NFL Road favorites (PHILADELPHIA) - after 2 or more consecutive losses, with a winning percentage of between 40-49% on the season are 35-11 ATS L/35 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. NFL team vs the money line (PHILADELPHIA) - after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a terrible team (25% or less ) are 31-4 SU for a 89% conversion rate over the 10 seasons with the average margin of victory coming by 12.3 ppg. Play on Philadelphia to cover |
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10-09-18 | Appalachian State -8.5 v. Arkansas State | 35-9 | Win | 100 | 32 h 2 m | Show | |
Appalachian States offence is rolling with their lowest output (35 pts) coming against Penn State . Right now the Mountaineers look to be the class of the Sunbelt and have proven they can hang with teams like the Nittany Lions, and laying less than DDs with them looks like a steal . It's never easy laying lumber with a road team in any sport and you have to do your due diligence which I have. This group of Mountaineers looks special indeed and as long as they stay motivated Im betting Arkansas State does not have the needed fire power to cover this number vs a behemoth opponent. Appalachian State is also well rested which is a good omen here for us cashing a ticket, as they are 6-0 ATS after a bye week over the last 3 seasons. App State 39.5 Opponent 12.7 From a College Football wagering perspective we also have value according to current trends as listed below. CFB home team (ARKANSAS ST) - after allowing 225 or more rushing yards in 2 straight games against opponent after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in 2 straight games are 3-24 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 89% conversion rate for bettors. CFB Road favorites (APPALACHIAN ST) - after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game against opponent after allowing 225 or more rushing yards in 2 straight games are 30-6 ATS L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Appalachian State to cover |
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10-07-18 | Vikings +3 v. Eagles | 23-21 | Win | 100 | 80 h 5 m | Show | |
The Vikings visit the City of Brotherly Love primed and pumped up to avenge a embarrassing playoff loss by a ugly 38-7 deficit in last years play offs.Minnesota is FG pup in this tilt after looking like a viable opponent after a hard fought 38-31 loss on the road in LA last Thursday night. In the past the Vikings have been good bets in this situation, as they are 12-0 ATS L/12 as a dog of less than a TD coming off a road loss. Also. HC Zimmer in non-division games when coming off a loss, is 13-1-1 ATS in his last 15 chances and has cashed in 4 of his l/5 coming off a Thursday nighter. Meanwhile the Eagles are just 0-6 ATS L/6 as a favorite of more than two points and did not look all that good in a loss last week to Tennessee in OT by a 26-23 count. REVENGE . REVENGE. Play on the Minnesota Vikings to cover |
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10-07-18 | Cardinals +4.5 v. 49ers | 28-18 | Win | 100 | 80 h 48 m | Show | |
San Francisco has been made more than a 3 point favorite here because of their perceived superiority vs a 0-4 Arizona team that is currently on the shit list for public bettors. However, laying points with SF is not a good bet when they are at home as is evident by a 0-11-2 ATS as a home favorite since the 2012 season. Neither team inspires bettors, but getting points with a Arizona team that is getting better with former UCLA gunslinger Josh Rosen at the helm is a viable wagering opportunity. Plus watching SF blow a 14 point last week, vs the Chargers and eventually losing 29-27 is disheartening , and a bd omen for their chances today to cover, as the 49'ers are 0-10 ATS playing on a natural surface after a loss in which they scored at least the first fourteen points of the game. It must also be noted that Arizona has lost 2 straight at home but the good news here is that the franchise is 7-1 ATS L/8 as a dog of 3 or more points when coming off consecutive home losses. Meanwhile, the Niners are just 2-13 ATS at home following consecutive away losses. Im going against. the weak favorite this week and taking the ugly dog to cover. Arizona to cover |
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10-07-18 | Giants +7 v. Panthers | 31-33 | Win | 100 | 76 h 59 m | Show | |
The Giants are one of these teams that continue to surprise many when they look down and out. This is not a good Giants team, but QB Eli Manning is 32-17-3 ATS career mark in games during October – including 16-6-2 ATS away and seems to play his best football at this time of the season. I know expected future star RB Barkley only had 44 yards pastime out, but the NY GIANTS are long term good bet off a bad rushing performance cashing 26 of their L/38 ATS in road games after gaining 75 or less rushing yards.The Giants' offense has plenty of playmakers to challenge the Panthers' defense. Veteran quarterback Eli Manning has passed for 1,055 yards and four touchdowns with one interception, wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. has 31 catches for 331 yards already, and rookie running back Saquon Barkley has rushed for 260 yards on 56 carries and three touchdowns. Barkley has accumulated the most yards from scrimmage by a rookie so far this season with 453. The No. 2 pick in the 2018 draft is the fifth player in NFL history with 100 or more yards from scrimmage in his first four career games. NFL home favorites like Carolina are 0-22 ATS on natural surface off a victory as a home favorite of 13 points or less when they are going against a team that has averaged less than five rushing first downs per game and more than 3.5 yards per rush season-to-date. Play on the NY Giants to cover |
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10-07-18 | Titans v. Bills +5.5 | 12-13 | Win | 100 | 48 h 5 m | Show | |
Last week Buffalo looked horrendous in a 22-0 shutout loss to the Packers. But it must be noted that the Bills are 6-1 SU in games after having being shutout. From a league wide data base NFL teams coming off being blanked who were in the playoffs the previous season are good bets as home dogs in their followup going 8-1-1 ATS since 1990 when taking 3 points or more. Truth is Buffalo is not that bad, and Tennessee is not that good despite of what the pundits might think after upsetting the Super Bowl Champs last week 26-23. Note:Away teams are just 13-41 SU and 15-39 ATS since 1992 after upsetting the defending Super bowl Champion. Im betting on an emotional letdown situation effecting the Titans this weak, and for redemption and embarrassment to be the catalyst for a Buffalo cover. TENNESSEE is 0-8 ATS in road games after gaining 6 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 3 seasons. Play on Buffalo to cover |
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10-07-18 | Wyoming +3.5 v. Hawaii | 13-17 | Loss | -115 | 84 h 5 m | Show | |
Wyoming is not as bad as their record would indicate and have the type of D, that can slow down the potent offensive attack of the Warriors. The Cowboys have held two opponents to season low offensive outputs and are under rated here on this trip to Hawaii to play a team that defensively challenged and is looking tired after putting up some serious flyer reward points this season. HAWAII is 0-10 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 2 seasons which was the case vs San Jose State last week. HAWAII is 1-8 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons. Wyoming is 7-1 L/8 trips to paradise island. WYOMING is 6-0 ATS in October games over the last 3 seasons. The Hawaii Rainbow Warrriors football program have been lousy favs in the past as is evident by their 3-18 ATS in their last 21 games as chalk, including 0-11 ATS the last eleven overall. CFBome teams where the line is +3 to -3 (HAWAII) - after going over the total by more than 21 points in their previous game, in the first half of the season are 21-49 ATS L/27 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Wyoming to cover |
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10-06-18 | Notre Dame v. Virginia Tech +7 | 45-23 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 20 m | Show | |
Notre Dame is not a true 7 point favorite here on the road vs a well coached VTech team. Hey I respect how good the Irish have looked so far this season, but you have to respect the Hokies as dogs here on their own home field. Yes, Tech lost to Old Dominion a couple of weeks ago in perplexing fashion but they did bounce back last week against a good Duke team in a 31-14 victory as underdogs. Backup QB Ryan Willis, who was inserted after starting QB Jackson went down, was 17-for-26 for 332 yards with 3 TDs and 0 interceptions and must also be respected to keep his team moving forward this week. Hokies are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 as a home dog. Virginia Tech is 48-3 SU in its last 51 home tilts against non-conference opposition with only one defeat coming by more than a touchdown. Lane Stadium will be rocking, so if I were Notre Dame I wouldn't come a knocking. VIRGINIA TECH is 14-4 ATS off an upset win as a road underdog since 1992. CFB Road favorites (NOTRE DAME) - good offensive team (5.6 to 6.2 YPP) against a team with an average defense (4.8 to 5.6 YPP), after gaining 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 14-44 L/27 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Virginia Tech to cover |
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10-06-18 | UL-Lafayette -4 v. Texas State | Top | 42-27 | Win | 100 | 35 h 51 m | Show |
After playing Alabama lat week this game for UL Lafayette vs a struggling Texas State team will seem like a walk in the park. Another loss they suffered was to Miss State and a underrated Coastal Carolina and they must not be underestimated in their ability vs a much less talented group at like the Bobcats that are suppose to start a freshman QB this week behind a inconsistent offensive line. The home team has not played anywhere near the competition UL Lafayette has played and Im betting that will become evident here this Saturday. UL Lafayette is 5-0 SU/ATS L/5 meetings in this series, with the last two showing 24-7 and 27-3 wins home and away. CFB Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (LA LAFAYETTE) - excellent rushing team (4.8 or more YPR) against a poor rushing team (3 to 3.5 YPR), in conference game are 43-16 ATS L/10 season for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. Play on UL Lafayette to cover |
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10-06-18 | Kentucky +6 v. Texas A&M | 14-20 | Push | 0 | 56 h 29 m | Show | |
A lot of pundits keep on betting on Kentucky not being the real deal. But after watching them a lot closer of late Im betting they are and won't go out here today without a fight vs Jimbo Fisher and company. The key to their ability to cover here will hinge on a defense that is ranked 11th in the nation, allowing just 13 points and 288 yards per game. Thats not good news for Texas A&M QB Mond who struggled in a 24-17 win over Arkansas last week, going 17 of 26 for 201 yards. He threw two interceptions for the second straight game and is downgraded on my QB power rankings list. KENTUCKY is 6-0 ATS after allowing 14 points or less last game over the last 3 seasons. Play on the Kentucky Wildcats to cover |
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10-06-18 | LSU v. Florida +3 | 19-27 | Win | 100 | 77 h 59 m | Show | |
HC Mullen’s took out the Miss State Bulldogs last week and are now an impressive improved 3-0 SUATS and have won the stats battle in those 3 games since losing to a strong undefeated Kentucky football program in Week Two. I know that LSU is perfect on the season, and playing really good football, but Mullens is a coach that knows how to deal with teams like the Tigers as he was 4-0 ATS vs LSU when he coached Miss State. Last season these teams took part in a 17-16 sleepers the SWAMP and Im betting on another close game today. Oregon has not done well in his career vs.750 SEC opposition like the Gators , garnering a ugly 2-13 SU in that role. |
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10-06-18 | Clemson v. Wake Forest +20.5 | 63-3 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 28 m | Show | |
Wow what a crazy situation Clemson finds itself in. QB Kelly Bryant announced he was leaving the team after HC Dabo Swinney decided to start Trevor Lawrence against Syracuse. However, Lawrence I'm sure much to the delight of Bryant and family. was forced out of the Orange game with an injury and backup Chase Brice, took over. Thats never good for team morale, but their overall talent got them through that game vs Syracuse , but just barely barely 27-23. That game was at home, but here on the road where the Tigers are 0-9 ATS L/10 as 18 point or more favs Clemson is in trouble. Wake is seeking some payback vs Clemson losing 28-14 last season. Wake is a money making 9-0 ATS L/9with ACC revenge and are 6-0 ATS skein as double-digit home dogs. CLEMSON is 13-26 ATS after 5 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992. Clemson is 0-12 ATS as a road favorite coming off a game where they failed to cover by at least seven points. CFB Road favorites (CLEMSON) - with an excellent rushing D - allowing 2.75 or less rushing yds/carry, after gaining 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 13-39 ATS L/27 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 75% for bettors on the blind. Play on the Wake Forest to cover |
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10-06-18 | Oklahoma v. Texas +8 | 45-48 | Win | 100 | 72 h 57 m | Show | |
Texas is the only Big 12 Conference team that holds an all-time series lead against the Sooners (61-46-5). The last four meetings in this series have been decided by a touchdown or less, with the Horns taking the advantage via a a 5-0 ATS series make in the last five meetings. Im betting on more of the same tough close action here again and for the home team to get us the cover behind a solid D, and capable offense. TEXAS is 7-0 ATS vs. excellent passing teams averaging 8.5 or more passing yards/att. over the last 3 seasons.TEXAS is 6-0 ATS versus excellent rushing teams - averaging 5.25 or more rushing yards/carry over the last 3 seasons.TEXAS is 10-2 ATS vs. incredible offensive teams - scoring 37 or more points/game over the last 3 seasons. Texas head coach Tom Herman is 11-1 ATS as an underdog, including 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS with a above .500 record. Play on Texas to cover |
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10-06-18 | Alabama v. Arkansas +36 | 65-31 | Win | 100 | 69 h 32 m | Show | |
Alabama has accumulated much of its big numbers vs patsies this season, with the one decent team they played being Texas A&M and that game was alot closer than the lines makers expected. I know Arkansas in their current form may not inspire bettors but this is still a proud program that despite of going through growing pains is capable of covering here at home in front of their own alumni. The promise their showing comes via a Defence, that has allowed their last 3 opponents seasons low offensive outputs including last weeks 24-17 loss vs TexasA&M covering as 19 point dogs. It must also be noted that only 3 times since 1977 spanning 274 games have the Hogs lost by more than 36 points. Don't get me wrong the Tide are a behemoth opponent and more than capable of blasting a team like Arkansas, but Im betting the Razorbacks come out here and play this game like a national championship. ARKANSAS is 15-4 ATS L/19 in home games vs. excellent passing teams averaging 275 or more passing yards/game.ARKANSAS is 20-8 ATS after 3 or more consecutive straight up losses since 1992. CFB Underdogs of 31.5 or more points (ARKANSAS) - with 17 or more total starters returning are 52-22 ATS L/27 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Arkansas to cover |
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10-06-18 | Eastern Michigan +4.5 v. Western Michigan | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 67 h 32 m | Show | |
Eastern Michigans football program is one of the most under rated college football programs in the nation. They can't seem to get over the hump when its comes to notching big wins, and are off a triple OT loss last time out vsN.Illinois, but what they have consistently done is be very competitive opponents thanks to a gruelling hardcore brand of physical football. Today against Western Michigan Im betting on a very closely contested battle that favours the visitors to cover or pull off the SU upset. E MICHIGAN is 9-0 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) over the last 3 seasons and are 11-1 ATS L/12 as road underdogs in tis series vs Western Michigan. Play on Eastern Michigan to cover |
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10-04-18 | Colts v. Patriots -10 | 24-38 | Win | 100 | 35 h 18 m | Show | |
Talk about a revenge scenario. Well thats what we have tonight as the New England Pats host the Indianapolis Pats. The Colts were the team that essentially were the ones who reported Pats super star QB Tom Brady to the league for deflated balls, which supposedly gave him an advantage. Known as Deflategate it has been a sore spot for the Pats and their fans for a while, and Im betting some pay back will be at hand tonight no matter what Brady and Belichick say to the media. The Pats started slowly this season, but after watching them destroy of the undefeated Dolphins last week 38-7 Im betting on them to continue to explode, even if the often injured TE Gronkowski does not play because of a pulled hamstring. Yes, the Pats might have seemed susceptible early on this season, thanks to a ugly rush stopping acumen, but a Colts teams ranked 29th in rushing won be a team that can take advantage of any perceived weaknesses. The Colts' best receiver, T.Y. Hilton, is unlikely to play which also puts the Colts at a disadvantage. Indianapolis has very few other offensive weapons and their defense is shoddy to say the least and Im betting Brady can look at and go up and down the field all day long and make them pay big time with properly inflated balls. Brady is 5-0 against Luck. Patriots have won 9 of their L/12 on Thursday night and are a profitable 20-8-2 ATS L30 as Home favorites and get the nod again tonight. NEW ENGLAND is 6-0 ATS vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game over the last 2 seasons. NEW ENGLAND is 13-2 ATS versus poor defensive teams - allowing 350 or more yards/game over the last 3 seasons. NEW ENGLAND is 10-0 ATS L/10 off 2 or more consecutive unders. NEW ENGLAND is 11-1 ATS after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game. NFL Road teams (INDIANAPOLIS) - poor rushing team (70-95 RY/game) against a team with an average rushing defense (95-125 RY/game), after being outrushed by 75 or more yards in 2 straight games are 17-45 L/35 seasons for a go against 72% conversion rate. for bettors on the blind. Play on New England to cover |
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10-04-18 | Georgia State v. Troy -14.5 | 20-37 | Win | 100 | 31 h 60 m | Show | |
Georgia State pulled off the upset last week vs UL Monroe as 8 point home dogs, but nothing before that game suggested that this side has the cannolis to hang with an explosive Troy State team this week, as is indicated by having gone 0-3 SUATS while their defence was gutted for 34, 59 and 41 points respectively. With that said, I now expect a reversion to the norm for Georgia State against a behemoth opponent that will be wide awake coming into this tilt. TROY is 6-0 ATS vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 62% or better over the last 3 seasons winning by more than 19.7 ppg. Play on Troy to cover |
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10-01-18 | Chiefs v. Broncos +5 | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 97 h 32 m | Show | |
Former Texas Tech gun slinger Mohomes has KC playing all out Wild West run and shoot football. But what is a little concerning is KCs defence, which is allowing an average of 30.7 ppg.on 474 mpg for the leagues worst D. Im betting on Denvers 10th ranked offence doing some damage here today, and possibly puling off the upset. Denver QB Case Keenum is 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS in his NFL career against opposition coming off three straight wins like KC. Night Football teams who are 3-0 as favorites of -7 points or less are 1-5 ATS L/6 overall. NFL- Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (KANSAS CITY) - after a game where they forced no turnovers against opponent after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 19-47 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate 71% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on the Denver Broncos to cover |
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09-30-18 | Ravens +3 v. Steelers | 26-14 | Win | 100 | 74 h 31 m | Show | |
Despite of the Steelers notching their first win of the season last time out this past Monday, their were still some issues that stood out. The Steelers took a big lead vs TB in that Monday night game but did not score in the 2nd half, and still allowed 27 points as they now rank 29thin in the league in defence. With the Ravens averaging 32.3 points per game the Steelers will once again be tested and probably trampled on by a revenge minded Ravens group that lost 39-38 in last years blockbuster battle covering as 5 point dogs. I know the Ravens choked against Cincinnati last time out, but they will be wide awake for this tilt and ready to rock'n'roll. Another key difference maker in what will be a physical game will come with discipline something, Pittsburgh has struggled with this season as they have been penalized for an average of 120 yards per game, which is easily the worst in the league. The Ravens are 5-0 ATS as division dogs of more than 3 points. and the Steelers are 1-7 ATS home after a Monday-nighter when taking on .500 or greater opponents. Also NFL Sunday night home chalk in division games against opposition coming off a victory, are just 8-18-2 SU and 5-22-1 ATS versus .600 or greater opposition .Home faves up to +7 are in a 1-14 ATS L/15 in Week 4 coming off their first victory of the season. Play on the Ravens to cover |
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09-30-18 | Seahawks v. Cardinals +3 | 20-17 | Push | 0 | 73 h 35 m | Show | |
When I saw that the Cardinals were being made underdogs at home , I understood why, but to a down trending team like Seattle, this underdog line favouring the home team becomes a value based option. I know Arizona has struggled to score, and has been shutout once this season, and only scored 14 ppg in their other two, but their offence despite of being conservative in nature shows some promise going forward. behind a true gun slinger in for UCLA star QB Josh Rosen who is expected to start this week. The pieces are being built for him to take off, despite of the cement shackles the coordinators are putting on him. With that said, I expect the Cards to make life tough on the Seahawks like they did on the Bears last week, and get us a cover. Note:1-2 chalk in Game Three off a victory are just 12-32 ATS and sides like Arizona that have scored no more than 16 combined points in their past two games are 76-31-1 ATS in the follow up. Yes, I know the Seahawks D, looked good last week in a win, but it also must be noted that the Seahawks are 0-7 ATS L/7 after a home game where they allowed less than 14 points. ARIZONA is 23-9 ATS in home games off a home loss.Carroll is 2-12 ATS in road games in September games as the coach of SEATTLE. Play on Arizona to cover |
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09-30-18 | Dolphins v. Patriots -6.5 | 7-38 | Win | 100 | 70 h 54 m | Show | |
The Dolphins enter this game at 3-0 and are being made underdogs to the 1-2 New England Patriots. The lines makers are obviously not buying into their current record , and still feel the the Pats are most probably ready to take out their frustrations this week vs a team that is very over rated and also a little lucky to be undefeated so far. Considering the Bill Belichick and company are also in a revenge mode for a 27-20 loss at Miami in December of last year this line looks cheaper by the minute. It must be noted that the Pats are 11-1 ATSat home when playing with single-revenge. New England future hall of fame QB Tom Brady is also a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS when coming of consecutive losses in division games. New England is 11-0 ATS L/11 when hosting a team that is off three consecutive wins.NEW ENGLAND is 8-0 ATS after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons. NFL Road underdogs or pick (MIAMI) - after 3 or more consecutive wins against the spread, in the first half of the season are 7-27 ATS L/10 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on the New England Pats to cover |
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09-29-18 | Oregon v. California +3 | 42-24 | Loss | -110 | 84 h 11 m | Show | |
Oregon is in a huge letdown situation after blowing a big lead vs Stanford last week and losing 38-31. This program despite of the accolades it is getting this season, by the pundits still is a long way off from a national contender, and might even be over rated here in the PAC12. Now still feeling the effects of last weeks horrifying loss will now play with these kids heads and Im betting they won't perform optimally against a tough and physical California D. Note: The Duckies are 0-13-1 ATS away in Conference action when not taking more than 4 points, which is the case here tonight vs a revenge minded Bears team that got beaten up in Eugene last season.Cal is 5-0-1 ATS at home under head coach Justin Wilcox. OREGON is 0-6 ATS in road games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 62% or better over the last 3 seasons.OREGON is 1-8 ATS in road games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.HC Cristobal is 4-14 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record in all games he has coached. Play on California to cover |
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09-29-18 | BYU +17.5 v. Washington | 7-35 | Loss | -110 | 56 h 32 m | Show | |
Washington has looked good this season, in wins against Auburn, Utah and Arizona State, but their doing it by averaging just 21 points per game. Here against a very physical and gruelling BYU defence allowing just 17 ppg, the sled dogs are not going to just cruise to an easy victory in my humble opinion. BYU proved their metal already this season when they went into Wisconsin and upset the Badgers as DDdogs, and almost did the same to a solid looking California Bears team losing 21-18 and also beating Arizona as 11.5 point away pups. Look for the Mormons QB Tanner Mangum to do just enough to put up enough points to get us a cover in what should be a very hard fought tilt. WASHINGTON is 1-10 ATS ( after allowing 275 or less total yards in 2 consecutive games since 1992.WASHINGTON is 7-18 ATS as a home favorite of 14.5 to 21 points since 1992.BYU is 24-10 ATS in road games after a cover as a double digit favorite since 1992. CFB Underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (BYU) - in a game involving two good teams (60% to 80%), in non-conference games are 47-17 L/27 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on BYU to cover Play on BYU to cover |
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09-29-18 | Ohio State v. Penn State +4 | 27-26 | Win | 100 | 81 h 55 m | Show | |
The Nittany Lions (4-0, 1-0 Big Ten) are averaging 55.5 points per game. The Buckeyes (4-0, 1-0) are also showing offensive explosiveness as is evident by scoring an average 54.5 per game . However, I like the defensive physicality of the Nittany lions a lot more and in a game like this and feel their stopping abilities Gove them the edge here on their own field. HC James Franklin when coming off consecutive wins, is 16-2 SU and 17-1 ATS with Penn State behind QB Trace McSorley – with the only non cover coming against Ohio State in a 39-38 heart breaker last season. the game they played before that was decided by a FG, which could easily be the difference maker here tonight. With that said lets take the points. PENN ST is 9-0 ATS after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards last game over the last 3 season.PENN ST is 15-1 ATS off a win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons. Franklin is 9-0 ATS off a road win as the coach of PENN ST. ST is 1-9 ATS after gaining 450 or more total yards in 4 consecutive games since 1992 CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (PENN ST) - after scoring 42 points or more in 2 straight games are 40-11 ATS L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (PENN ST) - in a game involving two dominant teams (outgain opponents by 1.2+ YPP), after gaining 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 35-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on Penn State to cover |
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09-29-18 | Boise State -16 v. Wyoming | 34-14 | Win | 100 | 130 h 8 m | Show | |
Wyoming has a huge problem moving the chains, as was evident by barely getting by lower tier Wofford last week with a 17-14 victory and the won't do much damage here this week vs Boise State defence with a chip on their shoulders after getting smacked around by Oklahoma State last time out. Now with an extra week of rest this talented and redemption minded Broncos team should be ready to put the proverbial pedal to the metal and control the line of scrimmage from start to a finish in what Im betting will be one sided action. While I don't adhere to laying this much lumber with a road side on a consistent basis, there are certain situations such as this one that warrant me doing so. Lay the points with this under appreciated group of 5 favourite. The Broncos are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games on turf and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games. Play on Boise State to cover |
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09-29-18 | Utah v. Washington State | 24-28 | Loss | -110 | 129 h 46 m | Show | |
Washington State and air orientated attack is going to have their hands full with a strong Utes, defence anchored by Julian Blackmon and Jaylon Johnson in the secondary . Utah’s linebackers and safeties, are a also top tier group should make life miserable for a young group that just got out scored 39-35 by USC last week and could easily be in an emotional letdown scenario . Utes will also be well rested and very ready thanks to their Week Four bye. Add to that payback for loss suffered last season at home , and I expect this very physical group of Utes to lay down some hurt this week on their way to a victory. UTAH is 6-0 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons. UTAH is 20-8 ATS L/28 in road games vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season. CFB road team vs. the money line (UTAH) - allowing 225 or less total yards/game over their last 3 games, with an experienced QB vs. opponent with inexperienced QB are 41-9. SU L27 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Utah Utes to cover |
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09-29-18 | Cincinnati v. Connecticut +17.5 | 49-7 | Loss | -106 | 58 h 36 m | Show | |
The Cincinnati Bearcats used up a lot of energy last week in a come from behind win vs Ohio. The Bearcats were down 21-0 before mounting that ferocious comeback and will now be in a little tired after putting out that much effort in a 34-30 win as 7 point chalk. It must noted that Cincinnati is 0-13-1 ATS last 16 seasons off a game as a home favorite where they allowed at least 28 points. I know UConn looks bad this season, but anything is possible in College football as has been evident in some massive upsets the last few weeks. With that said, take the points with the home side that actually sets up well in most of my projections. Play on UConn to cover |
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09-29-18 | UL-Monroe v. Georgia State +8 | 14-46 | Win | 100 | 56 h 13 m | Show | |
The Warhawks are coming off consecutive setbacks at the hands of Texas A&M and Troy and now many pundits probably are looking at this as easy win and an opportunity to get back on track vs a struggling Georgia State program. But not so fast UL Monroe, fans. Georgia State despite of losing 3 straight are a side that matches up well agains the Warhawks on my head to head matchup charts and in power rankings analysis . These kids on UL Monroe were jacked up to play two strong schools last couple of weeks and despite of wanting a win here to get back on track could find themselves bruised and battered and in a bit of a letdown situation. GEORGIA ST is 8-1 ATS in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons. Play on Georgia State to cover |
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09-29-18 | West Virginia v. Texas Tech +4 | 42-34 | Loss | -110 | 113 h 43 m | Show | |
Texas Techs offence is hitting on all cylinders scoring 181 points in their L/3 three games. all wins. West Virginia can score in bunches at well, but after beating Texas Tech last season, I expect the revenge minded Red Raiders have the edge here at home. W VIRGINIA is 7-20 ATS L/27 in road games vs. excellent passing teams averaging 275 or more passing yards/game.TEXAS TECH is 21-9 ATS L/30 in home games vesus good rushing teams - averaging 4.75 or more rushing yards/carry. TEXAS TECH is 7-0 ATS in home games in September games over the last 3 seasons. TEXAS TECH is 6-0 ATS after gaining 300 or more passing yards in 3 straight games over the last 2 seasons. CFB A home team vs. the money line (TEXAS TECH) - after gaining 450 or more total yards in 4 consecutive games against opponent after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game are 26-3 SU L/5 seasons for a 90% conversion rate for bettors. CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TEXAS TECH) - in a game involving two dominant teams (outgaining opponents by 100+ YPG), after gaining 475 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 28-6 ATS L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Texas Tech to cover |
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09-29-18 | UL-Lafayette +49.5 v. Alabama | 14-56 | Win | 100 | 96 h 13 m | Show | |
Nick Saban has a tendency to use games like this to get his banged up players healthy and to have a look at some of his younger top tier recruits. This is like a bye week for this powerful Alabama team, and Im betting they just coast to victory this week in merciful fashion. Saban L/6 in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 425 or more yards/game as the coach of ALABAMA have seen Alabama score an average of 34.7 ppg, while the opposition has averaged 9.3 ppg, the average margin of victory coming by 25.4 ppg.Saban L/24 in home games in weeks 5 through 9 as the coach of ALABAMA have been his team offences put an average of just 34.6 ppg on the board and win by an average of 25.7 ppg. UL Lafayette to cover |
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09-29-18 | Army +8 v. Buffalo | 42-13 | Win | 100 | 39 h 27 m | Show | |
Buffalo only ranks 61st in rushing defense despite of going against some lousy running teams this season. Army controlled their last game against a potent Oklahoma team losing in OT. I know some might think they will be a letdown situation, but this is a tough West Point minded group that won't lie down no matter what. Im betting they deal well with another tough test this week vs another explosive offense. Look for Army to do what it does best behind the option as they control the tempo of this game. This will be frustrating for Buffalo and their NFL bound QB 6'7 Tyree Jackson. Each of the 3 most meetings in this series have been decided by 8 points or less and another one is a high probability out come. The last two were decided by 4 and 3 points. |
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09-28-18 | UCLA +11.5 v. Colorado | 16-38 | Loss | -110 | 109 h 5 m | Show | |
Colorado is 3-0 on the season, while UCLA is 0-3 , and the stats and numbers also favour Colorado. However, my power rankings and head to head defensive vs offensive matchup algorithms suggest we have value with the underdog that has had two weeks to prepare for their opponents . Chip Kelley and company are desperate to salvage this season, and will leave everything on the filed this Friday night in what Im betting will be a Bruins cover. Note: Colorado is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 at home. UCLA is 12-2 ATS L/14 after allowing 37 points or more in 2 straight games . Play on UCLA Bruins to cover |
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09-28-18 | Memphis v. Tulane +14 | 24-40 | Win | 100 | 58 h 27 m | Show | |
Willie Fritz has assembled a tough bunch here in Tulane and its one of this programs betters group of talent, behind what is a never say die defence that actually stood tall against Ohio State vaunted offence last week. Ya they were smashed , but man did they look determined. Their no pushovers, and Im so impressed by them that Im willing to recommend we take the points here vs visits Memphis. Note: HC Fritz has won 17 of 25 home games and is 6-1 ATS as home pup of 5 points or more. TULANE is 6-0 ATS in home games after playing a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons MEMPHIS is 0-6 ATS after allowing 325 or more passing yards in their last game over the last 3 seasons.MEMPHIS is 4-16 ATS L/20 after scoring 50 points or more last game which happened last week in a 52- 35 victory vs South Alabama. CFB Road favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (MEMPHIS) - dominant team - outgaining their opponents by 125 or more yards/game, after gaining 525 or more total yards/game over their last 2 games are just 14-46 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Tulane to cover |
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09-27-18 | North Carolina +19 v. Miami-FL | 10-47 | Loss | -106 | 84 h 41 m | Show | |
The North Carolina Tar Heels will meet the Miami Hurricanes in nationally-televised college football action on Thursday, September 27 at Hard Rock Stadium. The Canes are almost a 3 TD fav, which is out of whack compared to where true line value sits at about 17 points. Thus taking points here tonight is an easy decision. N CAROLINA is 6-0 ATS vs. excellent punt return teams, more than 12 yards per return over the last 3 seasons. CFB Home favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (MIAMI) - with an excellent rushing D - allowing 100 or less rushing yards/game, after allowing 1 or less rushing yards/attempt last game are 13-42 ATS L/27 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate for bettors. Play on North Carolina to cover |
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09-24-18 | Steelers +1 v. Bucs | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 14 h 8 m | Show | |
Pittsburgh at 0-2 does not currently look like a power house team thanks in part to a defence that looks highly inconsistent.What Im trying to say is that the Steelers look to be a weaker pick than many might anticipate here this Monday night. I'm betting on QB Ryan Fitzpatrick (back to back 400 yard games) and a talented collection of playmakers that include DeSean Jackson, Mike Evans, O.J. Howard and Chris Godwin to do some damage here tonight on their way to a cover. QUOTE:"I respect what they've done. I'm not so sure I'm surprised," Steelers coach Mike Tomlin said of Tampa Bay's emergence with wins against the New Orleans Saints and the reigning Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles. END QUOTE: Tomlin is 6-16 ATS in road games in September games as the coach of PITTSBURGH.Buccaneers are 8-0 ATS as Monday Night home dogs when coming off non-divisional tilt. It must also be noted that TB should not be underestimated here no matter how desperate the Steelers are as NFL teams like Tampa Bay coming off consecutive straight up underdog wins, are 12-1 SU and a perfect 5-0 ATS as dogs. Play on the Tampa Bay Bucs to cover |
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09-23-18 | Cowboys +2 v. Seahawks | 13-24 | Loss | -105 | 77 h 56 m | Show | |
Seattle has been down graded on my power rankings to lows not seen in years. Wow how the mighty have fallen. From a charts perspective Im betting the Cowboys have the edge , yes even here on the road , and most sharps I know agree with my assessments and you will see this via line movement as well. DALLAS is 11-2 ATS after outrushing opponent by 75 or more yards last game over the last 3 seasons. NFL Home teams vs. the money line (SEATTLE) - off 2 consecutive road losses, in the first month of the season are 18-44 SU L/35 seasons. NFL Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (SEATTLE) - off a road loss, in September games are 63-105 ATS L/35 seasons for a go against 63% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on the Dallas Cowboys to cover |
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09-23-18 | Chargers v. Rams -7 | 23-35 | Win | 100 | 72 h 9 m | Show | |
The Rams were dominant last week in a 34-0 win vs Arizona, and have won their first two games convincingly and enter this game against cross town rivals the San Diego Chargers with a full head of steam that will be hard to stop. Note: Teams like the Rams that allowed no more than six first downs last game like the Rams did are 45-16-2 ATS including 9-1 ATS L/10.Since moving to LA, the Rams are 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS as favorites of more than 3 points under head coach Sean McVay and get the nod to add positive numbers into those columns here today. Chargers are 3-7 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.Chargers are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.Chargers are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games in September.Chargers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.Chargers are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games in Week 3. NFL Home favorites (LA RAMS) - in non-conference games, off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival are 27-7 ATS L/10 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the LA Rams to cover |
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09-23-18 | Raiders +3.5 v. Dolphins | 20-28 | Loss | -115 | 69 h 36 m | Show | |
Miami has started 2-0 but I can't say its been very impressive. Meanwhile the Raiders despite of being 0-2 have played better in my opinion. They did not look put of place vs a powerful looking Rams team in week 1 and than lost a heart breaker last week to Denver after blowing a 19-10 lead heading into the 4th quarter. This is a good spot for the Raiders to cover and be competitive vs a Fins team that are 2-9-1 ATS L/12 as a home favorite. Raiders are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games in Week 3.Raiders are 4-1-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up loss.Raiders are 3-1-2 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.Raiders are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games in September. Dolphins are 16-45-3 ATS in their last 64 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Dolphins are 1-4-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.Dolphins are 4-22 ATS in their last 26 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.Dolphins are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in Week 3. OAKLAND is 23-9 ATS L/32 in road games after a loss by 6 or less points.MIAMI is 6-20 ATS off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog. Road teams (OAKLAND) - off a loss against a division rival, in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 3 or more straight losses are 39-15 ATS L/35 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Oakland Raiders to cover |
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09-23-18 | Packers v. Redskins +3 | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 27 h 17 m | Show | |
Let me start by saying that NFL away teams, coming off a tie in their previous game, are 0-13 SU L/13 times. dating back to 1988. So history does not favour the Green Bay Packers here this week in Washington. With Green Bays super star Aaron Rodgers knee banged up and less than 100% the Packers look like weak favs in this spot. Rodgers was sacked 4 times last week, and Im not sold on his ability to play favouring his knee which will inhibit his mobility. Also the Packers a a whole, are in a emotional letdown situation after controlling their last game for 3 quarters before falling apart and settling for a lucky OT tie. Look for Skins defensive coordinator Greg Manusky to be ready to pressure Rodgers this Sunday . Note: Redskins coach Jay Gruden believes the key to controlling Rodgers is to bring pressure.QUOTE" "The most important thing is that you've got to make him uncomfortable in the pocket," Gruden said. "If you give him time to move around and buy time, and find a second, third option, or fifth or sixth option because he's scrambling around, he's going to dice you up. "The team's that have had success, which aren't very many, they pressure him, and that's the key." END QUOTE: NFL Favorites (GREEN BAY) - team with a poor scoring defense last season - allowed 24 or more points/game, after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored are 15-39 ATS in the followup dating back 35 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on Washington to cover |
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09-23-18 | Duquesne +29.5 v. Hawaii | 21-42 | Win | 100 | 42 h 35 m | Show | |
Army controlled time of possession last week , in their usual methodical way, via their ground attack and delivered Hawaii their first defeat of the season,(27-21) dropping them to 3-1 . The bad news is Hawaii is 0-16-1 ATS L/17 at home coming off a game where they had less than 26 minutes time of possession. Im betting all the early season travelling and the intensity and physicality of that last tilt will have the Rainbow Warriors a little tired this week, and less than motivated as they face a lower tier team.With that said, look for the margin of victory by the Warriors to be less than expected by the lines makers. Note: Prior to this season, the Duquesnes last game against an FBS team was in 2014, when they were very competitive facing the Buffalo Bulls of the MAC losing 38-28. Duquesne has converted 53.2% of its third-down opportunities, this season ranking fifth in the FCS in that category. Hawaii has allowed 50% conversion on third downs , with only six other teams in the nation more futile defensively stopping this key down. Play on Duquesne to cover |
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09-22-18 | Arizona State +17.5 v. Washington | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 78 h 5 m | Show | |
The Washington Huskies are getting a lot of love from the lines makers here and not giving a lot of respect to the Arizona State Sun Devils. But it must be noted that the Huskies have failed to cover 16 of their L/21 as PAC 12 Double digit home chalk . Meanwhile, Arizona State has covered 6 of their L/7 as DD dogs. Hey I know the Sun Devis lost to San Diego State last week , as favs, but I'll forgive that effort as they were in a letdown situation after the physical win they notched the week before against Michigan state. Meanwhile, Washington is getting a lot of accolades from the pundits, but Im betting the sledding for the Huskies won't be easy in this spot after their exhausting physical win vs Utah last week. The Arizona State Sun Devils are 11-1 SU and 12-0 ATS in their the last twelve games against the Washington Huskies. WASHINGTON is 1-9 ATS after allowing 275 or less total yards in 2 consecutive games . CFB Home favorites (WASHINGTON) - after going under the total by 28 or more points total in their last three games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 42-86 ATS L/10 seasons for a 67% go against conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on Arizona State to cover |
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09-22-18 | Eastern Michigan +12 v. San Diego State | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 60 h 10 m | Show | |
Eastern Michigan is highly under rated and staunch defensive team that can give San Diego State some issues here. I know the Aztecs pulled off the upset behind a backup QB last time out vs Arizona State, but now in a huge letdown situation , I expect SDState could find them selves getting frustrated by a very physical MAC team, with a never say die attitude that went into Purdue and upset them in their 2nd game of the season, allowing them just 19 points . It must be noted that Eastern Michigan is 8-0 ATS the last eight vs non conference opposition and are also 2-0 SUATS all-time against MWC opponents. E MICHIGAN is 8-0 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) over the last 3 seasons. CFB Underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (E MICHIGAN) - in a game involving two good teams (60% to 80%), in non-conference games are 46-17 L/27 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Eastern Michigan to cover |
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09-22-18 | Texas Tech +14.5 v. Oklahoma State | 41-17 | Win | 100 | 74 h 37 m | Show | |
Oklahoma State was bypassed by most of the pundits last week in their game vs Boise State. I however, knew better, and recommend we bet on Gundy and company instead and I was right in my assessments .Now the Cowboys are getting a little to much love vs a Texas Tech team that is explosive offensively and capable of hanging with Oklahoma State , which they proved in a big DDwin vs a well balanced Houston side last week by a 63-49 count. Also I expect the Cowboys of Stillwater to be in a letdown situation after that huge win that saw them playing with chip on their proverbial shoulders. Note: The Cowboys have failed to cover 4 of their L/5 as DD home chalk, while Texas Tech is 5-1 ATS L6 as conference dogs of 10 points or more. Although Oklahoma State has a nine-game winning streak in the series, the matchup has produced some quality shootouts recently. The Cowboys just squeezed by Texas Tech 45-44 in Stillwater in 2016 and escaped Lubbock with a 41-34 victory a year ago. Texas Tech is 12-0 ATS L/12 on the road coming off a home game where they scored at least 42 points. OKLAHOMA ST is 7-19 ATS L/26 vs. dominant ball control teams, 32+ minutes TOP, 21+ FD's per game.TEXAS TECH is 6-0 ATS after a home game where both teams score 31 or more points over the last 3 seasons. CFB road team (TEXAS TECH) - excellent offensive team (6.2 YPP or more ) against a team with an excellent defense (4.2 YPP or less ), after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game are 33-9 ATS L/10 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on Texas Tech to cover |
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09-22-18 | Coastal Carolina +5 v. UL-Lafayette | 30-28 | Win | 100 | 73 h 10 m | Show | |
Coastal Carolina is one of those teams I have circled to better the pundits expect, especially with HC Joe Moglia on the sidelines. This coach is super intelligent and one of the best hidden secrets in the College game. They walloped their last two opponents UAB and Campbell by putting 47 and 58 points on the scoreboard and must not be underestimated vs a Ragin’ Cajuns side that is ranked 107th on d in the nation and from a betting perspective just 12-29-1 ATS mark at home in conference play, including 2-15-1 ATS when off a loss which is the case here as they are off a 56-10 loss to Miss State last week. CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (COASTAL CAROLINA) - with a terrible defense - allowing 6.1 or more yards/play, after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game are 28-4 ATS L/5 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on Coastal Carolina to cover |
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09-22-18 | NC State v. Marshall +5.5 | 37-20 | Loss | -110 | 61 h 48 m | Show | |
The 2-0 Wolfpack had their game against ranked West Virginia at Raleigh. Cancelled last week because of Hurricane conditions. Now they go on the road to face Doc Holliday’s Marshall , which is never easy task especially for a rusty team that missed some practices . Note Marshall is defiant 7-1-1 ATS record in their last nine appearances as non-conference home dogs and their L/6 tries vs ACC competition have not failed too cover with a 5-1-1 ATS mark. Huntington will be rocking today so when you come a knocking take the points with the Thundering Herd. MARSHALL is 7-0 ATS as an underdog over the last 2 seasons. NC STATE is 7-20 L/27 ATS as a road favorite of 7 points or less . 2-0 away teams in Game Three like NC State with a week off are just 14-28 ATS in non-conference games. Rested, undefeated non-conference home dogs like Marshall are 11-1 ATS against opponents playing off an ATS win. Play on Marshall to cover |
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09-22-18 | North Texas v. Liberty +13.5 | 47-7 | Loss | -105 | 58 h 58 m | Show | |
North Texas is off a huge win vs Arkansas last week, and the team as a whole after the wild celebration, and start to finish leave everything on the field type effort will now be in an emotional let down spot vs a Liberty team, that is famous for the amount of NFL players they have developed. It must be noted that North Texas are just 3-22 SU off a SU win as a dog and a current run of 1-15 SU and 3-13 ATS away under the same perimeters. Meanwhile, Flames HC Turner Gill is a perfect 5-0 ATS in his career as a underdog against opposition off a SU/ATS victory and cover of 20 or more points which the young men from Denton achieved vs Arkansas last week. With Gill having 2 weeks to prepare for this tilt, Im betting he will have this young talented group ready to compete here on their own home field. LIBERTY is a perfect 12-0 ATS in non-conference games since 1992. Play on Liberty to cover |
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09-22-18 | Kansas +7.5 v. Baylor | 7-26 | Loss | -106 | 67 h 8 m | Show | |
Kansas is on a two game win streak, and Baylor was exposed last week in a 40-27 loss to a banged Duke team limping with numerous injuries. The Jayhawks continue to be under rated and disrespected because of a dismal long term record, but after annihilating back to back opponents, it sure looks like their on their way back to being competitive.Kansas is 12-4 SUATS L/16 in games following consecutive wins, while the Bad News Bears’ have failed to cover 14 of their L/19 as favs. BAYLOR is 7-20 ATS L/27 against teams who force 2.75 or more turnovers/game on the season. CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (KANSAS) - after going over the total by more than 21 points in their previous game, in the first half of the season are 26-6 ATS L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Kansas to cover |
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09-22-18 | Clemson v. Georgia Tech +17.5 | 49-21 | Loss | -115 | 55 h 36 m | Show | |
Im not going to argue about who the better team is here, its obvious Clemson is a national contender while , Georgia Tech is not. However, it must be noted that Tech behind a one way running game and ability to control time of possession, have the ability to stick close enough for a cover here vs a Dabo Swinney team that consistently seems to do just enough to get a victory especially on the road where they have failed to cover 14 of their L/15 as away chalk of 7 or more points. With a revenge game on board vs Syracuse up next Clemson might not be full focused here, giving us an edge with a underdog that has cashed 6 straight with conference revenge. ( Clemson beat Tech last season 24-10 at home) last season. Play on GTech to cover |
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09-22-18 | Texas A&M +27 v. Alabama | 23-45 | Win | 100 | 45 h 58 m | Show | |
Texas A&M is 6-0 ATS in Game Four of the season, and Jimbo Fisher is 10-2 SU versus SEC opponents, including 4-0 SUATS away. The Aggies played Clemson tough in their first game of the season covering while making Clemson work for the win. Now here on the road it will be a lot tougher, but thanks to Alabamas pounding of opponents to this point in the season the price tag attached to them is high and there is value taking the points here behind a very well coached team. TEXAS A&M is 7-0 ATS after playing a game at home over the last 2 seasons. After consecutive blowout wins against Northwestern State (59-7) and ULM (48-10), Texas A&M is fifth in the nation in total offense, averaging 596.3 yards per game. It's one of four offenses that rank in the top 25 in both rushing and passing (Houston, Ohio State and Oklahoma State ) nd have the ability to make this close. CFB Road underdogs (TEXAS A&M) - in a game involving two dominant teams (outgaining opponents by 100+ YPG), after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game. 42-14 ATS L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Texas A&M to cover |
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09-22-18 | Louisville +5 v. Virginia | 3-27 | Loss | -106 | 52 h 60 m | Show | |
Both these teams according to my power rankings have not performed up tot heir charts. Yes, I know Louisville has won 2 row, with the only excusable loss coming to Alabama, and Indiana 3 in a row. But those wins by both teams have come vs teams they were expected to beat, and Virginia despite of beating Ohio of the Mac last week in convincing fashion , are still not performing at an optimal level. After analysing head to head strengths and weaknesses , Im sticking to my preseason assessments, that would make the Cardinal the superior team even here in enemy territory. Louisville is 15-0 ATS L/15 on the road when they failed to cover by at least seven points last game. CFB home team (VIRGINIA) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 4 or more straight losses, with 5 offensive starters returning, in the first month of the season are 18-46 ATS L/27 seasons for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on Louisville to cover |
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09-22-18 | Buffalo -5.5 v. Rutgers | 42-13 | Win | 100 | 99 h 3 m | Show | |
The Rutgers Scarlet Knights are off back to back destructions vs Kansas Jayhawks and the Ohio State Buckeyes and have given up a combined 107 points in their last two games. The Buffalo Bulls of the MAC might not inspire many bettors, but this team is explosive offensively and dangerous and more than capable of stopping Rutgers cold, and also putting a DD beating on them, even here on the road. The Bulls have averaged 39.7 ppg this season, and can match that output today vs a very bad Rutgers D that is allowing 38 points and 430.7 yards per game. The Bulls are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games, 5-2 ATS vs. a team with a losing record and 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games overall. RUTGERS is 0-6 ATS off a road blowout loss by 28 points or more over the last 3 seasons and is 2-14 ATS L/16 in home games after allowing 525 or more total yards in their previous game . CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (RUTGERS) - with a horrible scoring defense - allowing 35 or more points/game, after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored are 13-38 ATS L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on Buffalo to cover |
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09-22-18 | Ohio v. Cincinnati -7 | 30-34 | Loss | -112 | 3 h 17 m | Show | |
Cincinnati D, is ranked 2nd in the nation right now and their ground game is averaging 5 yards per carry. I expect the Bearcats will pound away here and eat up clock time while their own D keeps Solichs offense off the field consistently which will mess with the Bobcats fluidity which in turn will see them frustrated. Cincinnati continues to roll, on their way to their 4th straight win and cover. Cincinnati is 21-2 L/23 vs MAC opponents SU. CFB home team vs. the money line (CINCINNATI) - after allowing 9 points or less in 2 straight games against opponent after allowing 37 points or more last game are 24-2 with the average margin of victory combing by 20.6 ppg. Play on Cincinnati to cover |
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09-22-18 | Notre Dame v. Wake Forest +7.5 | Top | 56-27 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 42 m | Show |
This is a trap game for Notre Dame, and Im confident they don't deserve their high ranking, Some of the interesting factors that have me backing Wake here this week are listed below... Wake Forest (2-1 SU, 0-3 ATS) has covered the spread in its last 11 straight games against ranked opponents. Notre Dame (3-0 SU, 1-2 ATS), owns a tight 6.8 average margin of victory in its last 10 road ACC games dating back over the L/10 seasons.Wake Forest is 12-1 ATS with revenge L/2 seasons,( lost last Years meeting 48-37 on the road but covered) and go against what looks to me to be an over rated and still jelling Irish team that despite of being undefeated are just 1-2 ATS while losing the stats wars in 2 of 3 games this season .It must also be noted that the lucky catholic boys have not registered more than 400 yards in any of their three victories which all came at home. Here on the road trouble could be brewing vs a Wake Forest side that can be explosive and competitive as was evident vs Boston College last time out. From a matchup persepctive ( difference maker) Wake Forest's rushing attack Im betting will gouge Notre Dame's wobbly defensive front. Wake Forest has gained 264 yards per game on the ground, while Notre Dame has allowed 107 rushing yards per game. ***Notre Dame is the highest-ranked non-conference opponent to visit Wake Forest since the Demon Deacons pulled a September 1996 shocker by toppling No. 13 Northwestern. There was also a 1979 upset of No. 13 Auburn. Last season Wake Forestupset No.25 ranked NC State. NOTRE DAME is 1-8 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) over the last 3 seasons. CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (WAKE FOREST) - after gaining 525 or more total yards/game over their last 2 games are 68-29 ATS L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on Wake Forest to cover |
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09-20-18 | Tulsa v. Temple -7 | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 79 h 1 m | Show | |
Tulsa under HC Philip Montgomery has proven himself over rated, and he can't motivate his team to be consistent as was the case last week when they were upset at home by Arkansas State. The offence is not very efficient anymore and the defence, has proven insufficient more often then not. Against a hard working side like Temple that is off a big win vs Maryland last week, their in trouble. The Owls prevailed 43-22 in Tulsa to close the 2017 regular season and matchup well vs the visitors. TEMPLE is 12-1 ATS vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse over the last 3 seasons. TEMPLE is 14-3 ATS against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons. TEMPLE is 8-0 ATS after allowing 125 or less passing yards in their last game over the last 3 seasons. TEMPLE is 15-3 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread over the last 3 seasons. Play on Temple to cover |
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09-16-18 | Patriots -1 v. Jaguars | 20-31 | Loss | -107 | 81 h 14 m | Show | |
The Jags enter this game jacked up and ready to get revenge vs the Pats for last seasons play off elimination loss. But it must be noted that the Pats are not easily intimidated as is evident by a long standing trend that has shown them to be good bets in this situation. Note:the Patriots are 8-0 ATS when the line is within 3.5points of pick and their opponent is seeking revenge for a post season defeat . You have also remember that the Pats are the healthiest they have been in a long time and Gronkowski is said to be 100% which is a dangerous situation for all comers in the NFL. QB Tom Brady also looks like he's on a mission and off a stellar performance in week 1 vs the Texans. Not a good omen for a Jacksonville side that is 0-14 ATS when hosting a non-divisional op-ponent that is getting more than 65% of their first downs through the air. NEW ENGLAND is 16-4 ATS after playing a game at home over the last 3 seasons. NEW ENGLAND is 8-0 ATS as a road favorite of 7 points or less over the last 3 seasons. England is 11-1 SU L/12 meetings in this series. Play on New England to cover |
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09-16-18 | Cardinals +14 v. Rams | 0-34 | Loss | -130 | 77 h 1 m | Show | |
The Rams did not look completely cohesive last week in their win vs the Oakland Raiders. I know they won by DDs, but their was still some issues especially early on in that tilt. This week against another side that is not considered very good, Im betting the Rams struggle again, to cover this big number even though they are at home. Arizona in their game vs Washington last week looked asleep at the wheel, mostly in the first half and allowed 30 first downs losing by a 24-6 count.That was the bad news, but the good news from a historical standpoint shows us that the Cardinals are 13-0 ATS L/13 as a underdog coming off a game where they allowed at least 22 first downs . Also the Cards D looked to get their footing in that loss last week, allowing just 3 points in the 2nd half which will give them stopping momentum coming into this tilt. Arizona has covered 6 straight as road opening underdogs. NFL Underdogs of 10.5 or more points (ARIZONA) - after a loss by 14 or more points against opponent after scoring 30 points or more last game are 24-5 ATS L/10 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on the Arizona Cards to cover |
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09-16-18 | Texans v. Titans +2.5 | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 51 h 20 m | Show | |
Tennessee was smashed in a 57-14 blowout loss to DeSaun Watson and the Texans last season.Im betting the Titans will have had this game circled for a long time now and be out looking for revenge and very primed for payback. Titans QB Marcus Mariota suffered an elbow injury in the 27-20 loss to the Dolphins last week but appeared on track to start against Houston after practicing fully on Wednesday , and will be ready to lead his team. Pros don't like to be embarrassed and Im betting on the avenging home team getting what they want here and that is redemption. TENNESSEE is 11-3 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons. NFL Road teams vs. the money line (HOUSTON) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 4 or more straight losses, team that had a terrible record last season (25% or less ) playing a team had a winning record last year are 2-30 L/25 seasons for a go against 94% conversion rate for bettors. Take the points with the Tennessee Titans to cover |
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09-16-18 | Vikings v. Packers +4.5 | 29-29 | Win | 100 | 6 h 27 m | Show | |
The Green Bay Packers have double revenge on board for a pair of losses they suffered to Minnesota last season. With super star QB Aaron Rodgers upgraded to probable Sunday the Packers have a good chance to get some payback and redemption here today at Lam-beau Field. Note : Aaron Rodgers is 11-0 SU and 9-2 ATS at home during the first six games of the season. NFL Home teams vs. the money line (GREEN BAY) - good passing team from last season - had a completion pct of 60% or better, after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game are 30-4 SU L/10 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on the Green Bay Packers to cover |
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09-16-18 | Eagles -3 v. Bucs | 21-27 | Loss | -109 | 6 h 59 m | Show | |
Philly is off a Thursday night win vs Atlanta (18-12). Which is a good omen for their oppostion today today as defending champions are 24-6 straight up in tilts when off a Thursday night contests, including 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS the last seven overall. Meanwhile, the Bucks are off an explosive effort and win vs New Orleans in their first game by a 48-40 count as underdogs behind the arm of veteran QB Fitzgerald. Unfortunately for Bugs supporters a repeat type performance Im betting are not in the cards as Fitzgerald has a history of a down performance after his team took a straight up win as pups going 1-10 SU/ATS in the follow up .TAMPA BAY is also 0-6 ATS off 1 or more straight overs over the last 2 seasons losing by an average of 6.1 ppg. TAMPA BAY is 1-9 ATS after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored over the last 3 seasons. TB 19.5 Opp 26.9 (- TD + Diff) PHILADELPHIA is 7-0 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons average margin of victory 10 ppg. Tampa Bay is 4-17 SU all-time against defending Super Bowl champions. NFL team (TAMPA BAY) - off a win over a division rival as an underdog of 6 or more point are just 5-26 SU L/5 seasons in the followup . Team 26.5 Opp 16.9. Play on the Philadelphia Eagles to cover |
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09-15-18 | Washington v. Utah +6.5 | 21-7 | Loss | -110 | 62 h 49 m | Show | |
Utah enters this game against Washington with revenge for a 33-30 loss last season, which flashes a go sign here on this bet , because of their proficiency in this role as is evident by a 5-1 ATS L/6 with conference revenge. The Utes won last time out but failed to cover, versus a though Northern Illinois side by a 17-6 count as 13 point road chalk. However it must also be noted that Utah HC Whittingham has cashed 13 of their L/14 off a ATS loss. Overall the Utes have recently also been a viable investment option when getting 5 or more points as a home underdog cashing 6 of their L/7 opportunities. Utahs Defence remains very solid, and here at home in a black out game where they have won 8. of their L/10 they look like live dogs that must be respected. UTAH is 15-3 ATS after allowing 275 or less total yards in 2 consecutive games since 1992. CFB Road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (WASHINGTON) - off a home win by 17 points or more, good team from last season who won 60% to 80% of their games are 17-45 ATS L/26 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Utah Utes to cover |
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09-15-18 | Ohio State -13 v. TCU | 40-28 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 18 m | Show | |
Alot of sharp bettors got down on what appeared to be a value line with a home team that won 11 games last season (TCU). But on futher review and a comparison of both teams strengths and weaknesses , it becomes failry obvious that the linemakers are actually short on this line, and it should be closer to -16 with visiting Ohio State according to my power rankings. Historically speaking Ohio State has been a solid bet on the road coveing 10 straight as away chalk or -17 or less and are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 in their first road game of the season. The importance of this game is not essential to TCU Big 12 camapign this season, and with Texas on board next week, I'm betting the coaching staff have not been able to dedidcate as musch time as is needed to take on this type of explosive opponent. Note: TCU is 0-6 ATS L/6 before facing the Texas Longhorns and have only covered 1 of their L/5 head to heads with Big10 opposiiton. I know Urban Meyer is not on the sidelines but he still has his fingerprints all over this team, and is still pulling the strings. Bet on a conclusive Ohio State victory and cover. |
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09-15-18 | Eastern Washington +16.5 v. Washington State | 24-59 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
Eastern Washington ranked 6th in FCS, recorded five sacks against Northern Arizona last week and are the type of defence that can cause problems for Washington State QB who has weak completion numbers (66,7%) and a below average offensive stats for a guy playing in Mike Leach's air raid system. Washington State offensive line has looked solid , and QB Gardner Minshew has not been sacked once, but still hurries his throws and has been intercepted 3 times already. Today against this type of aggressive D, their could easily be problems. Eastern Washington will primed to compete against instate rivals Cougars today, and Im betting they will get us a cover behind a balanced team with a solid QB in Gage Gubrud who owns has 9 TDs no interceptions so far this season. Play on Eastern Washington |
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09-15-18 | Alabama v. Ole Miss +22 | 62-7 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 25 m | Show | |
Ole Miss has looked horrendous on defence so far this season, and its obvious the talent level from the offensive side of the ball is far superior to that on the defensive side. Truth is Ole Miss has almost always won recruiting battles for WRs and top tier QBS, but have failed to land defensive 4 and 5 star recruits. But today I expect the D, to step up while the offence continues to do what they do best and that is score. Yes, even against their behemoth opponent Alabama. Ta'amu the Rebels QB is working with one of the top receiving corps in the nation. It is led by A.J Brown, who tops the SEC in receptions per game (7.5) and is second in receiving yards per game (125.5), eighth nationally. This offence can hang points on the best teams in the nation, and thats what I'm betting on here tonight, against a against an Alabama secondary with all new starters. When Alabama travelled here two years ago, it had to come from behind a 21-point deficit in the second quarter to pull off a wild a43-37 victory. In 2014-15, the Rebels pulled off back-to-back upsets of the Crimson Tide. Ole Miss 9-3 ATS as a underdog of more than 17 points, and 8-3 ATS as a underdog with conference revenge. CFB Home underdogs of 14.5 or more points (OLE MISS) - after allowing 37 points or more last game against opponent after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games are 38-8 ATS L/10 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Ole Miss to cover |
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09-15-18 | Boise State v. Oklahoma State -3 | 21-44 | Win | 100 | 128 h 31 m | Show | |
Both these teams are off convincing wins last time out, and both are now 2-0. Both have explosive offences and top tier QBs leading the way. The difference maker will be home field advantage . With that said, Oklahoma State gets the nod in what the lines makers estimate will be a closely contested affair. OKLAHOMA ST is 90-62 ATS as a favorite since 1992. BOISE ST is 0-6 ATS after allowing 125 or less passing yards in their last game over the last few seasons.HC Harsin is 0-7 ATS after gaining 375 or more passing yards in last game as the coach, of Boise State. OKLAHOMA ST is 30-12 ATS after scoring 50 points or more last game. CFB home team (OKLAHOMA ST) - after 2 straight wins by 21 or more points against opponent after scoring 42 points or more in 2 straight games are 30-8 ATS L/26 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on Oklahoma State |
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09-15-18 | Tulane v. UAB +4 | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 28 h 24 m | Show | |
UAB is off a loss to under rated Coastal Carolina last week by a 47-24 count . But they have proven to be a good bounce back side and are 19-4 ATS as home pups when coming off a loss. Tulane has looked good this season on offence behind top QB Johnathon Banks, but their defence is atrocious having allowed 953 yards in their first two games and are ranked 111th in the nation on defence and are less than viable road favs in their first game away from home this season. TULANE is 8-23 ATS L/30 in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread. CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (UAB) - team that had a winning record last season, in non-conference games are 70-30 ATS L/27 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on UAB to cover |
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09-15-18 | Hawaii +7 v. Army | 21-28 | Push | 0 | 121 h 40 m | Show | |
Hawaii has impressed me by starting their season at 3-0, behind an explosive and balanced offence. While Im not totally sold on them ,because of their far inconsistent defence I do like them to cover vs Army this week despite of being on the road. I know Armys option offence is hard to stop, but the Warriors can use the blue print that was successful in Game 1 as they had success outpointing another option based offence owned by Colorado State . This Warriors team can burn you and so many ways one Im betting it will that attack that allows them help us cash a ticket this Saturday. Monken is 0-6 ATS in home games after playing a game at home as the coach of Army. CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (HAWAII) - after scoring 42 points or more in 2 straight games are 37-11 ATS L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (HAWAII) - with a terrible defense - allowing 6.1 or more yards/play, after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game are 34-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. CFB road team vs. the money line (HAWAII) - excellent offensive team (6.2 or more YPP) against a team with a terrible defense ( 6.2 YPP or more ), after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games are 40-4 SU L/27 seasons for a 91% conversion rate for bettors on the blind which give credence to us taking the points here this week. Play on Hawaii to cover |
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09-15-18 | Rutgers v. Kansas -3 | 14-55 | Win | 100 | 97 h 30 m | Show | |
We have a significant power ranking increase registered for Kansas after going into Central Michigan and hammering them by a 32-7 count. Call me crazy but this team might actually be competitive going forward after a long embarrassing drought. I'm betting Kansas can make Rutgers one-dimensional by stopping the run, as QB Sitkowski is currently questionable with an arm injury I know some might call me continue to call me a lunatic for laying points with Kansas but unbelievably to some they are capable of garnering a win vs a Rutgers side that could be emotionally let down after being humiliated 52-3 last week by Ohio State. CFB road team vs. the money line (RUTGERS) - average defensive team (330 to 390 YPG) against a good defensive team (280 to 330 YPG), after gaining 3.25 or less yards/play in their previous game are just 2-36 SU in their next game L/27 seasons for a go against 95% conversion rate for bettors. The average margin of victory was 17.6 ppg) Play on Kansas to cover |
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09-15-18 | Miami-FL v. Toledo +11 | 49-24 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 27 m | Show | |
Toledo, 20-7 SU in two seasons under HC Jason Candle and must be respected as a viable football program especially when playing here in the Glass Bowl. Meanwhile, Miami their opponents despite of pasting Savannah State last time out 77-0 showed some weakness in game 1 of their schedule vs LSU losing in DD fashion. Not all is perfect with Mark Richts football program and despite of good recruiting classes this steam just can't seem to get over the hump especially on the road. It must be noted Toledo is 5-1 ATS L/6 at home when they own a winning record which they have including last weeks 66-3 win vs VMI. Note: TOLEDO is 27-8 ATS after a win by 28 or more points since 1992.TOLEDO is 7-0 ATS after outgaining opp by 225 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 3 seasons.TOLEDO is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) in home games after gaining 7.25 or more yards/play in their previous game since 1992. Toledo is 8-0 ATS L/8 covering my more than 8.5 ppg at home coming off a game where they allowed less than 200 passing yards Home teams coming off a win by more than 35 points are 748-600-32 ATS for a quality long term winning bet. CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TOLEDO) - excellent passing team from last season - had a completion pct of 62% or better, in non-conference games are 31-7 ATS L/26 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on Toledo to cover |
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09-13-18 | Boston College v. Wake Forest +6 | 41-34 | Loss | -115 | 46 h 59 m | Show | |
Boston College has come a long way over the last few seasons. However, I was still surprised to see them build into a market road favorite against a under valued Wake Forest team that has the ability to blast away offensively with the best of teams, including Boston College even without the suspended QB Kendal Hinton in the lineup. I expect the Demon Deacons to stretch the field vs BC via the run game , and than use that option behind a good looking freshman QB Sam Hartman to open up down field against a suspect secondary that is the weakest part of the defence as was the case vs Umass in week 1. Look for star WR Greg Dorch to so some damage here today and for Wake Forest to keep this game close enough to possibly pull off the upset. WAKE FOREST is 11-2 ATS as an underdog over the last 3 seasons. BOSTON COLLEGE is 7-18 ATS off 2 consecutive home wins since 1992. CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (WAKE FOREST) - in a game involving two dominant teams (outgaining opponents by 100+ YPG), after gaining 475 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 28-5 ATS L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (WAKE FOREST) - excellent passing team from last season - had a completion pct of 62% or better are 37-12 ATS L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. CFB Road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (BOSTON COLLEGE) - in a game involving two dominant teams (outgaining opponents by 100+ YPG), after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous games are 22-54 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Wake Forest to cover |
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09-09-18 | Bears +8.5 v. Packers | 23-24 | Win | 100 | 86 h 55 m | Show | |
The Packers have owned the Bears over the last couple of seasons. With the Vikings on board next week , for the Cheese Heads a look ahead situation vs a top tier Minnesota Vikings team could mess with the coaching staff and players being fully prepared for this tilt. The Bears talent level is increasing and their ability to even pull off a straight up victory here on the road should not be underestimated . Look for a Bears defence that was already solid in the past to be even tougher now with Khalil Mack in the fold, and for the usually conservative offence under the tutelage of new HC and former KC offensive coordinator Matt Nagy to be much more cohesive behind the arm of the talented QB Mitch Trubisky. NFL Home favorites (GREEN BAY) - team that had a losing record last season, in conference games are 87-141 L/34 seasons for a go against 62% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on the Chicago Bears to cover |
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09-09-18 | Chiefs +3.5 v. Chargers | 38-28 | Win | 100 | 75 h 8 m | Show | |
The Chargers started slow last season, losing their first 4 games and despite of wanting to get off to a better start this season will be hard pressed to do so, vs a under rated KC Chiefs team that is well coached and capable of making life difficult for them. From a historical perspective the Chiefs have covered 5 straight here in Southern California , and from a league wide trends data base it must be noted that NFL Favorites (LA CHARGERS) - first 2 weeks of the year, non-playoff team from prior season who won their last 2 games are 4-23 ATSL/10 seasons for a go against 85% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Add to that Andy Reid is 5-1 ATS in the first month of the reg season in his L/6 divisional classes and we have a live dog to back here. KANSAS CITY is 10-2 ATS versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons. KC to cover |
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09-09-18 | 49ers +7 v. Vikings | 16-24 | Loss | -130 | 76 h 22 m | Show | |
Minnesota is off an amazing season, going 13-3 SU and now once again look like one of the deepest teams in the conference. But it must be noted that teams in week 1 with 4 or fewer losses (including playoffs)last season are 35-48-2 ATS and far from sure bets coming into the following campaign. Also teams in week one at home who won 7 or 8 games (including playoffs) last season are just 30-41-1 ATS L/72. Add to that Minnesota will have a new QB in Cousins who is 0-3 SU/ATS in home openers at the helm of the offence and it may take time to find his groove, behind a offensive line with some weaknesses Note: Nick Easton, the starting left guard and backup center, is out for the season after undergoing surgery to repair a bulging disk in his neck. This is also a pivot that has shown a lot of inconsistencies in the past .Meanwhile, San Francisco finished last season winning their L/5 games, and must not be underestimated on the road where they have played their best football of late as is evident by a 7-2 ATS mark in their L/9 away. Note: 49ers QB Jimmy Garappolo (7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS as a starter). 49ers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games in week 1. Vikings are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC. Play on the SF 49ers to cover |
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09-09-18 | Titans v. Dolphins +2 | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 76 h 37 m | Show | |
This is a weak road favorite we are seeing here with Tennessee. Despite of being in the post season last year, the Titans were lucky to be there after being out stated and out scored overall by a total of 38 points on the season. It must be noted that Tennessee has not fared well in the past against AFC opposition failing to cash in 7 of their L/8 ATS . Meanwhile Miami is 4-1 SU and a perfect 5-0 ATS L/5 in season openers . Tennessee was 0-4 in the preseason which is not a good omen for a sudden turnaround today vs a desperate Miami team with a veteran QB at the helm in Tannehill. TENNESSEE is 112-146 ATS against conference opponents since 1992. Home teams in week one in games with a total of 46 or more are 48- 35-2 ATS. Teams in week 1 which lost 10 or more games last season against a team that did not lose more than 9 games are 106-67-2 ATS L/175 . Play on the Miami Dolphins to cover |
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09-09-18 | Rice +18.5 v. Hawaii | 29-43 | Win | 100 | 7 h 39 m | Show | |
09-08-18 | Rice +17.5 v. Hawaii | 29-43 | Win | 100 | 60 h 18 m | Show | |
Rice played a solid game vs a balanced Houston team on the road last week, and were competitive for almost 3 quarters before falling apart late for a 45-27 loss covering as 25 point dogs. The game was a lot closer than the final score might indicate , as Rice showed some explosive offensive schemes in that back and forth battle. Meanwhile, their opposition this week Hawaii has played some impressive offensive football in their first two weeks of the season vs Navy last week at home and Colorado State in their road opener putting up, 59 and 43 points in victories. The Warriors Achilles heel as has been the case in recent past campaigns remains their defence, as they allowed an average of 37.5 ppg in those two above mentioned tilts. Tonight in what could be an emotional letdown spot for the Warriors against a Rice squad that can put points up on the board in a hurry, Im betting their in trouble and a win if they can get it, will not come without some blood , sweat and tears. Hawaii is 0-6 ATS L/6 after accumulating 450 or more yards of offence in two straight games. Rice is a perfect 7-0 ATS in their L/7 visits to Paradise Island. CFB road team vs. the money line (RICE) - a good offensive team (28-34 PPG) against a horrible defensive team allowing 34 ppg or more, after scoring 20 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games 36-4 SU L/27 seasons. Play on Rice to cover |
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09-08-18 | Michigan State v. Arizona State +7 | 13-16 | Win | 100 | 61 h 38 m | Show | |
The Sun Devils looked great last week in a win vs Texas San Antonio. Herm Edwards the new HC of the Devils has not lost his touch since an extended departure from the College football scene. It must be noted that Arizona State have covered 4 straight as home undedogs of 7 or more points, and have won 10 straight at home all-time versus the Big Ten. Meanwhile, we know that the Spartans under HC DAtonio are slow starters and just got by Utah state last week and are just 0-6 ATS their last six versus the Pac-12 and far from solid road favs here in this spot. ARIZONA ST is 10-2 ATS in home games when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons. CFB Road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (MICHIGAN ST) - off a home win, in the first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 3 or more straight wins are 8-30 ATS L/26 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (ARIZONA ST) - excellent passing team from last season - had a completion pct of 62% or better, in non-conference game are 30-7 ATS L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Arizona State to cover |
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09-08-18 | Penn State v. Pittsburgh +9.5 | 51-6 | Loss | -110 | 57 h 30 m | Show | |
Penn State was involved in a hard fought game vs Appalachian State last time out and needed a late score to cover. That game could still be effecting them and a emotional letdown scenario is not out of the question vs a another gritty program. Last season in Happy Valley Pittsburgh actually out gained the Lions despite of losing on the scoreboard and are 5-0-1 ATSL/6 in this series. You can bet HC Narduzzi and company behind what should be a solid run game to be primed on pulling of the upset vs their instate rivals and be sky high here emotionally today. It must be noted that Penn State has covered just once in their L/10 as -14 or less road chalk. The Panthers are also 11-0-1 ATS L/12 as home dogs of 8 or more points and get my support again as home pups. CFB Road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (PENN ST) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 4 or more straight wins, team that had a winning record last season are 10-33 ATS L/26 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. CFB Road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (PENN ST) - off a home win, in the first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 3 or more straight wins are 8-30 ATS L/510seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Pittsburgh to cover Play on Pittsburgh to cover |
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09-08-18 | Clemson v. Texas A&M +12.5 | 28-26 | Win | 100 | 57 h 38 m | Show | |
Needless to say this is a huge game for Jimbo Fisher and Texas A&M. Meanwhile, Clemson will not be a hyped up in this non conference affair. I believe in Fisher as a DD home dog, and feel his team has what it takes to cover vs this National championship contender. HC of Texas A&M is 45-8 SU all-time in home games in his career including 22-1 SU in games in which his teams are undefeated meanwhile, Clemson is 0-14-1 ATS failing to cover by more than 10 ppg since the 2000 campaign as a road favorite coming off a home game where they failed to cover by at least six points which was the case on a -51 line vs Furman last week. Play on the Texas A&M Aggies |
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09-08-18 | UL-Monroe +6 v. Southern Miss | 21-20 | Win | 100 | 56 h 36 m | Show | |
The LA Monroe Warhawks have 17 returning starters in the fold, and must not be underestimated here this week vs their hosts Southern Miss side with just 9 returning starters. Both own wins vs lower tier teams in their season debuts, and both look capable enough to put points on the board in what should be a hard fought back and forth affair that could easily be decided by a late scoring drive. LA MONROE is 20-8 ATS as a road underdog of 7 points or less since 1992.LA MONROE is 20-6 ATS L/26 in road games after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game. SOUTHERN MISS is 3-14 ATS in home games after outgaining opp by 225 or more total yards in their previous game. CFB team (LA MONROE) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 3 or more straight losses, returning 8+ off. starters and QB against opponent returning 5 or less def. starters - weeks 1-2 are 26-4 ATS L/5 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors. Play on LA Monroe to cover |
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09-08-18 | Georgia v. South Carolina +10.5 | 41-17 | Loss | -108 | 24 h 10 m | Show | |
We all know how good a program and team Georgia football will field here today, but this is a long time rivalry that is emotional, and I expect a full house here today to back the Gamecocks. Like last season, we can expect a physical game , that I'm betting actually favours South Carolina to cover. Georgia won last years battle 24-10 on their own home turf, but now with the border war changing venues we will take the points. Note: Georgia has failed to cover 5 straight in road openers if they are DD chalk kickoff. South Carolina is 8-3 ATS in this series, and 5-1-1 ATS with conference revenge. Play on South Carolina to cover |
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09-08-18 | Arkansas State +37 v. Alabama | 7-57 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 45 m | Show | |
Arkansas State is a program that has been highly competitive recently and off a win in game 1 of their season and Im betting they can stay within the number here this week, vs a No.1 ranked Alabama team that will be focused on staying healthy before their SEC opener next week vs Ole Miss. Nick Saban is 0-5 ATS in his career with Alabama as a non-conference favorite of more than 28 points before his SEC opener when facing an opponent coming off a victory and is also just 1-11 ATS as non conference home chalk of 28 points or more and . It must also be pointed out that the Arkansas State Red Wolves have lost just 1 game of their last 159 games by more than 37 points. CFB Underdog of 31.5 or more points (ARKANSAS ST) - after outgaining opp by 175 or more total yards in their previous game are 32-7 ATS L/25 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Arkansas State to cover |
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09-08-18 | Duke v. Northwestern -3 | 21-7 | Loss | -100 | 49 h 54 m | Show | |
This one is a revenge situation that sets up from last season where Duke mercilessly smashed Northwestern, 41- 17, as a 2-point home underdog. Revenge is one very powerful motivational factor as stated in many data bases including the bible. Quote" “Vengeance is mine; I will repay. End Quote: That will be the Northwestern moto this week. |
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09-02-18 | Miami-FL -3 v. LSU | 17-33 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 48 m | Show | |
AT&T Stadium - Arlington, TX LSU’s HC Ed Orgeron has his hands full here tonight in the opener against Miami Fl, thanks to the offseason personnel losses that saw 14 starters and 18 players from the 2-deep depart. He has a new offensive coordinator and just named its starter Monday -- junior Joe Burrow, a graduate transfer from Ohio State who will be making his first collegiate start. Meanwhile, Miami and their top tier HC Mark Richt goes with fifth-year senior and returning starter at quarterback in Malik Rosier. The Canes are also chalk loaded full of talent after another solid recruiting class, and Im betting will have this rebuilding LSU team on their heels. Canes 8-1-1 ATS as non-conference chalk of 7 or less points.LSU is 1-8 ATS L/9 in September games .Orgeron is 4-13 ATS in September games in all games he has coached since 1992. Mark Richt of the Canes owns. a 21-10 SU record in non conference action away from home.
Play on the Miami Canes to cover , |
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09-01-18 | Navy -11 v. Hawaii | 41-59 | Loss | -110 | 85 h 34 m | Show | |
Hawaii might of taken advantage of rebuilding Colorado State program for a win on the road last week 43-34, but now on tired legs after back and forth trips from Paradise Island to the mainland and than back to Paradise Island again, the Warriors will now have to contend with a solid Navy football program that will not be over looking them because of the irrationally exuberant headlines Hawaiis football program has been featured in all week. The Midshipan will be especially primed to capture a conclusive victory here after losing 6 of their L/7 games last season.Mind you two of those losses were to UCF and Notre Dame where they did not look out of place.The Midshipman did show their metal with a 49-7 win vs Virginia in their Bowl game, and are still steaming and ready to roll here's vs this Saturday night in the final game of the day. Im betting this will one of Niumatalolo’s most explosive teams yet and that the Warriors despite of vast coaching and tempo changes on offence are not ready to compete with this kind of opponent just yet. HAWAII is 0-7 ATS after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.HAWAII is 0-6 ATS after allowing 475 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 2 seasons CFB Favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (NAVY) - excellent rushing team from last season - averaged 5.25 or more rushing yards/carry, with an experienced QB returning as starter are 45-15 ATS L/26 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on Navy to cover |
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09-01-18 | SMU +5.5 v. North Texas | 23-46 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
The Ponies make their debut under new head coach Sonny Dykes this Saturday at North Texas. These teams are pretty evenly matched, but Im betting SMU has made more efficient upgrades especially on D in the off season behind former Northern Illinois defensive coordinator Kevin Kane and the offence under take no prisoners style of play implemented by Dykes leadership will see the Mustangs continue to roll. I feel strongly that SMU has a outright chance at victory, partly because I feel North Texas will have problems plugging the run via 3-3-5 defensive scheme and ha a tendency of giving up huge plays. NORTH TEXAS is 8-20 ATS L/28 when the total is greater than or equal to 63 . The Mustangs have beaten UNT three consecutive times overall and lead the all-time series 31-5-1. Play on SMU to cover |
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09-01-18 | Cincinnati +15.5 v. UCLA | 26-17 | Win | 100 | 60 h 43 m | Show | |
Chip Kelly the former Oregon HC Is now back in the Pac-12 . His OU team was dominating, but I'm betting his task here at UCLA will be a daunting one this season, especially on defense where this Bruins football program looked atrocious last season especially vs the run, ranking last among power 5 teams . Kelley from a wagering perspective was not a particularly good bet outside of his conference in his tenure with the Ducks, going just 6-7 ATS, including 1-3 ATS in season opening battles . On the flipside Bearcats HC Luke Fickell has put together a truly talented and under rated group here behind some very good recruiting classes and I'm betting this Cincinnati Bearcats teams is being seriously underestimated , while Chip and his ultra talented but still less than cohesive group are over rated at this point in the season. UCLA is 1-8 ATS in September games over the last 3 seasons. CFB home team vs. the money line (UCLA) - poor rushing defense from last season - allowed 4.75 or more rushing yards/carry, with 5 offensive starters returning are just 9-22 SU L/5 seasons, with the average point differential clicking in at 5.9 ppg. Play on Cincinnati to cover |
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09-01-18 | Boise State v. Troy +10.5 | 56-20 | Loss | -110 | 78 h 20 m | Show | |
Two seasons ago, Troy closed as 35-point underdogs at Clemson and covered with extraordinary ease in a hard fought 30-24 loss. Last year, they fearlessly went into Death Valley and upset LSU, 24- 21, as 20.5-point pups Now with revenge on board for a a season opening 24-13 home loss to the Broncos in 2017 I expect they will be primed to be competitive again . I know BSU was ranked No. 22 in the preseason AP poll and returning senior QB Brett Rypien, is a stud QB. But it must be noted that Troy are no pushovers , and are 9-0 ATS record as underdog of 9 or more points at Veterans Memorial Stadium and this will be their first home dog situation since the 20015 season.. It would also be important to point out that Bryan Harsin’s Broncos have covered only 1 of their L/5 ATS in season openers the last five years, and 4-10 ATS as double-digit chalk versus an opponent that won 10 or more games the previous season. Troy is a team that won 25 of their 31 overall and must be respected here as home dogs. Yes even a against this powerful Boise group. CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TROY) - excellent passing team from last season - had a completion pct of 62% or better, in non-conference game are 30-6 ATS L/26 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. CFB Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TROY) - good passing team from last season - had a completion pct of 58% or better, in non-conference games are 42-15 ATS L/10 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Troy to cover |
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09-01-18 | Northern Illinois +10.5 v. Iowa | 7-33 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 20 m | Show | |
The Hawkeyes should not be favoured by this much. The opening line was bad, and has been bet down, and I'm betting taking 10 points with Northern Illinois also offers value. Iowa has lost a lot form last years team. and have been far from good bets in the past in non conference openers going just 3-11 ATS at home when they are less 16 point chalk .Meanwhile, NIU is 30-10 SU and 27-11-2 ATS in its last forty road games and are 14-4 ATS as double-digit non-conference road dogs the last 18 seasons. including 11- 1 ATS in their L/12 Big 12 battles . HC Ferentiz and company also own a ugly 1-5 ATS record in its last six games against MAC opponents and are 0-3 ATS in season openers. The last time these teams opened against each other in 2012-13 the two tilts were decided by a total of just 4 points and Im betting another very close game here behind a very improved Northern Illinois defence. N ILLINOIS is 13-4 ATS L/17 as a road underdog of 7.5 to 14 points. CFB road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (N ILLINOIS) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses, team that had a winning record last season are 42-13 ATS L/26 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on Northern Illinois to cover |
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09-01-18 | Texas -13 v. Maryland | 29-34 | Loss | -116 | 73 h 60 m | Show | |
This is a pure and simple situation that will see Texas focused on getting some payback for last seasons humiliating loss at home to this same Maryland program. Its not usually my thing to lay almost two touchdowns on the road between power 5 teams, but this one stands out as being exceptional situation and worth laying the lumber. Texas will primed on taking a merciless stance here today on their way to a one sided beatdown of mammoth proportions. Note: Suspended HC DJ Durkins has had a lot of issues that have effected this Terps group mentality, and I expect we see that here today. I don't think interim HC and OC Matt Canada will have this team ready to compete at the level it needs to not to be embarrassed today. Maryland football program failed to cover 34 of their L/36 straight up non-conference home or neutral field losses, including 23 straight ATS losses under these perimeters. Texas head coach Herman is 9-3 SUATS when seeking revenge, including 10-1 ATS in non-conference games, and a perfect 5-0 ATS as a visitor. Play on Texas to cover |
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09-01-18 | Texas State +17 v. Rutgers | 7-35 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 13 m | Show | |
After a few of ugly seasons, since going FBS football, Texas State has finally tapped into a deep Texas talent pool and had a couple of very good recruiting classes with 17 3star recruits in the lineup , which has them flying in under the radar in this opener vs Rutgers side that averaged just 18 PPG (120th), 115.58 PYPG (124th) and 147.08 RYPG (86th) on offence .With an inexperienced TD at the helm of offence in QB Sitkowski I'm betting things will not get much better for the Scarlet Knights even with their new OC McNutty making calls. Note:Less than two weeks before the start of the year, the Scarlet Knights saw eight players - all from the defensive side of the ball - charged for their alleged involvement in a credit-card fraud scheme. These kids set a tone in the lockeroom that won't be easy erased when the on field group takes to the field today. Rutgers is 3-8 ATS L/11 as a DD fav, and in no way to they inspire me, especially vs a Texas State Defence that has shown vast improvement over the last few seasons. Play on Texas State to cover |
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09-01-18 | Coastal Carolina +30 v. South Carolina | 15-49 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 36 m | Show | |
South Carolina goes against instate opponent Coastal Carolina here today in what must be looked at as a tuneup game for the Gamecocks and super bowl type game for Coastal Carolina. |
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