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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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06-24-17 | Angels v. Red Sox OVER 10 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach Saturday MLB 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Angels @ 7:15 ET - With yesterday's 9-4 Red Sox win cruising over the total, Boston has now recorded 3 straight overs and the Angels have recorded 5 straight overs. On a mild evening at Fenway Park and with two struggling pitchers on the mound, I don't expect these trends to come to an end. JC Ramirez gets the start for the Angels and the right-hander has given up 18 earned runs on 28 hits in his last 18 innings of work. That equates to a 9.00 ERA in the last 4 starts Ramirez has made and he now faces a Boston team that is averaging 6.6 runs per game in its last 5 home games. The Red Sox will be starting David Price. The Boston southpaw got a late start to this season and he really has not been as impressive as we're use to seeing from Price. The bad news for the left-hander is that things appear to be getting worse, not better, as he has a 6.75 ERA and 1.94 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Price allowed 5 homers in the 16 innings spanning those 3 starts. He now faces an Angels team that has averaged 6.3 runs and 11 hits per game in it's last 6 games. In road games with a posted total of 10 or 10.5 runs, the over is 3-1 in Angels games this season. The Red Sox have gone 4-1 to the over in their last 5 games overall and they've had just 1 under in their last 5 home games. Look for another wild one at Fenway Park tonight. 10* OVER the total in Boston early Saturday evening. |
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06-24-17 | Cubs v. Marlins OVER 9 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach Saturday MLB 10* Top Play OVER the total in Miami Marlins vs Chicago Cubs @ 4:10 ET - After yesterday's pitchers duel, today's afternoon match-up has all the right ingredients to play out in completely opposite fashion. Look for a slugfest here! The Marlins Justin Nicolino returned from the disabled list and promptly got rocked at home versus Washington. The Miami southpaw gave up 6 runs (3 earned) on 7 hits (including 2 homers) in just 3 innings of work! Niccolino is facing a Cubs lineup that will be fired up after getting shutout yesterday and the Cubs have a .457 slugging percentage against southpaws this season. That ranks them 4th out of all 30 teams in the majors. As for the Marlins, they have an on base percentage of .342 against left-handed pitching this season and that ranks them 4th out of all 30 teams. Miami will be facing southpaw Jon Lester whom has not fared nearly as well on the road as he has at home. Away from home this season, Lester is 1-3 with a 5.84 ERA and a 1.76 WHIP. The over is 17-9 this season in Miami's games against teams with a winning record and the over is also a solid 9-4 this year in Marlins games against left-handed starters. The Cubs, as a road favorite of -175 or more, are 4-2 to the over this season and 22-11 to the over the past 3 seasons combined. Also, Chicago is 10-6 to the over this year in games against left-handed starters. 10* OVER the total in Miami Saturday afternoon |
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06-23-17 | Pirates v. Cardinals -117 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -117 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach Friday MLB 10* Top Play St Louis Cardinals Money Line (-) vs Pittsburgh Pirates @ 8:15 ET - Even though Adam Wainwright has poor numbers when you look at his last 3 starts combined, that included two awful road outings. At home this season, Wainwright is a fantastic 5-1 with a 2.88 ERA in his 7 starts. Look for him to come up big again here at home as the Pirates come into this game having lost 5 of their last 8 games. Pittsburgh has averaged only 7.4 hits in those 8 games. As for St Louis, the Cardinals are off of a 5-1 loss yesterday but previously averaged 6.6 runs per game in their 11 prior games! They'll be facing Jameson Taillon and the Pirates right-hander has allowed 4 earned runs or more in 3 of his last 5 starts. He was unable to go deeper than 5 and 1/3 innings in any of the 5 starts. That is significant because Pittsburgh's bullpen has had some shakiness in recent losses. Look for the Bucs to drop to 3-6 in Taillon's starts this season while Wainwright improves to 6-1 in his home outings! There is fantastic line value here with the Cards as a short home favorite. St Louis is already 3-0 this season versus the Pirates and Pittsburgh comes into this one having gone 8-14 this season in road games where their money line ranges from -125 to +125. That is the case again here and I look for the Pirates to again struggle on the road while the Cardinals improve to 15-8 in their last 23 home games versus Pittsburgh. 10* ST LOUIS CARDINALS money line Friday |
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06-23-17 | A's v. White Sox OVER 10 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach Friday MLB 10* Top Play OVER the total in Chicago White Sox vs Oakland A's @ 8:10 ET - Mike Pelfrey has pitched surprisingly well this season but, prior to a strong start in his most recent outing, he has been showing signs of coming back to 'reality' recently. Pelfrey, previous to a solid outing versus Toronto, had given up 12 hits and 8 walks for a total of 20 baserunners in the 9 innings spanning his two prior starts! We could see more results like that today as he is 0-4 with a 7.96 ERA and a 1.92 WHIP in the 4 starts he has made against the A's in his career. As for Oakland, Jharel Cotton gets the start in this one. The right-hander has gone 4-7 with a 5.40 ERA on the season. Also, he is not really showing any signs of improvement as he has a 6.23 ERA in his last 3 starts and he allowed 2 homers in EACH of those three outings! Facing the hot hitters of the White Sox is unlikely to help matters for Cotton. The ChiSox are 6-4 in their last 10 games and they've scored an average of 6.4 runs per game during this hot streak. The White Sox have averaged 11 hits per game in their last 13 games! As for the Athletics, the over is 13-5-2 in their last 20 games. Oakland is also 26-14 to the over this season when off of a loss. The White Sox are 19-11 to the over this season in their games against teams with a winning record. 10* OVER the total in Chicago White Sox |
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06-23-17 | Calgary v. Ottawa OVER 55.5 | Top | 31-31 | Win | 100 | 23 h 2 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach Friday CFL 10* Top Play OVER the total in Ottawa Redblacks vs Calgary Stampeders @ 7:30 ET - This is the Grey Cup rematch. Of course last year's Grey Cup easily flew over the total and I look for a repeat here. The over is a perfect 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these teams and I really like all the additions that Ottawa made in terms of talented receivers being added to the mix but their defense is still a major question mark. Keep in mind the Redblacks defense was their weakness last season and I expect the revenge-minded Stampeders to fully exploit that weakness here. Calgary has the best offense in the CFL and they're ready to air it out but so too is Harris for Ottawa as Trevor Harris looks to redeem himself after losing the starting job last season. Not only is Harris ready to "put his foot on the gas in this one", Calgary is more than happy to air it out and they put up insane numbers through the air against the Redblacks in last year's match-ups. I look for more of the same here as the PERFECT trend of overs continues in this series. The Redblacks D simply won't be able to stop a determined Stampeders team but Ottawa can also score big, especially with the plethora of receiving talent they have now. The over is 14-8 the past two seasons when the Redblacks are an underdog. Also, Ottawa has gone 11-6 to the over long-time when they are a home dog in a range of 3.5 to 7 points. Look for more of the same with the Redblacks on Friday night as offense takes center stage in the rematch. Two QBs involved here with plenty to probe. 10* OVER the total in Ottawa |
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06-22-17 | Cubs v. Marlins OVER 9 | Top | 11-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach Thursday MLB 10* Top Play OVER the total in Miami Marlins vs Chicago Cubs @ 7:10 ET - The Cubs lost 3-2 yesterday and truly haven't been overly impressive at the plate of late. However, facing Jeff Locke should bring out the best in them. They just faced him at Wrigley Field earlier this month and they really forced him to labor in that outing. Overall, Locke has been unimpressive with a 5.79 ERA and 1.64 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Now the Cubs get a quick second look at him and they'll be ready to crush the ball today after a disappointing home loss to the Padres yesterday. As for the Marlins, they were no-hit late into yesterday's match-up against Max Scherzer of the Nationals but then they managed to rally late for the 2-1 win. There is reason to believe the Marlins will fare much better against the Cubs Jake Arrieta. The right-hander did enjoy success against Miami earlier this month but that outing was at Wrigley Field. On the road this season, the Cubs are 3-6 in Arrieta's starts and he has a 5.07 ERA and 1.43 WHIP in those outings. Arrieta has allowed 4 earned runs or more in 5 of his last 7 road outings. His most recent start stayed under the total but, prior to that, 9 of Arrieta's last 12 starts went over the total. The Marlins are 29-13 to the over in night games this season and I expect another one here as both lineups respond after poor performances at the plate yesterday. The pitching match-up today is very conducive to an over. The Cubs lead the National League in homers (28) versus left-handed pitchers. Miami is hitting .263 in night games which ranks 5th in the NL this season. Their high-scoring trending under the lights continues in this one Thursday. 10* OVER the total in Miami |
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06-22-17 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies -104 | Top | 10-3 | Loss | -104 | 7 h 46 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach Thursday MLB 10* Top Play Colorado Rockies Money Line (-) vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 3:10 ET - The first line that came out on this game had the Rockies as a -145 favorite. As of early gameday morning, this line is all the way down to a pick'em price range! I will gladly grab the Rockies in this price range as they look to bounce back off of last night's ugly 16-5 loss where the Diamondbacks had a ridiculous 10-spot in the top of the 4th. Yes, Coors Field can be 'crazy good' for the hitters at times but that was an insane inning. Needless to say, the Rockies will be looking for payback this afternoon. Lets not forget that Colorado had won 6 straight games before yesterday's loss. The big edge they have here is that Antonio Senzatela is used to starting at Coors Field and is a stellar 7-1 this season with a 3.68 ERA in home games! As for the Diamondbacks Zack Godley, he will be making his first ever start at Coors Field. He has made relief appearances here and the Rockies gave him trouble each time. As for the Dbacks facing Senzatela, this will be the first time ever as a starter or out of the bullpen. That said, Arizona's lineup is likely to struggle with his offerings. The Diamondbacks are only 11-11 in day games this season while the Rockies are 22-8 in day games. Look for a big response form the home team this afternoon after last night's ugly debacle. In my opinion, for the reasons note above, the Rockies have a huge pitching edge in this one and I love the extra value afforded by the line move here. 10* COLORADO |
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06-21-17 | White Sox v. Twins OVER 9.5 | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
AL Central Total of the Year - Rickenbach Wednesday MLB 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox @ 8:10 ET - Jose Berrios has put up surprisingly strong numbers this season. However, he still has made only 7 starts this season and this is a guy who went 3-7 with an 8.02 ERA in twice as many starts as that last year. Also, although Berrios is off of a strong start, he had previously been showing signs of "coming back down to earth" after his "out of this world" start to the season. Berrios, in his 4 prior outings, allowed 11 earned runs on 21 hits and 11 walks in the 22 and 2/3 innings spanning those 4 starts. That works out to a 4.37 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP. Certainly those are respectable numbers but it shows that a Berrios "correction" of his insanely strong numbers from earlier this season is quite likely. The White Sox did face Berrios last October so thiey are not without some experience against the young right-hander. As for the ChiSox starting David Holmberg here, the southpaw has produced decent numbers but has only last 17 innings in his 4 starts. That means another long day for a White Sox bullpen that again saw plenty of action yesterday is quite likely tonight! These teams combined for 16 runs on 28 hits and I am expecting another wild one tonight. The ChiSox have averaged 11 hits per game in their last 12 games! The Twins bullpen has a 5.25 ERA this season which ranks them dead last in the majors. The over is 18-10 this season in Twins games against teams with a losing record and the over is 95-60 the last 3 seasons combined when Minny is facing a team with a sub-.500 record. With the low ERA numbers these two starters have this season the O/U in the 10 range may look high but, as you can see above, there is plenty of justification for the odds makers setting this total where they did. I'll gladly take advantage of the line move that has it a 9.5 in many books this morning. 10* OVER the total in Minnesota |
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06-21-17 | Red Sox v. Royals +135 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 135 | 7 h 39 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach Wednesday MLB 10* Top Play Kansas City Royals Money Line (+) vs Boston Red Sox @ 2:15 ET - Boston rolled Kansas City yesterday 8-3 but the Red Sox had lost 3 of their prior 5 games and the BoSox were held to 2 runs or less in 4 of their 5 prior games. As for the Royals, they had won 8 of their last 9 games prior to yesterday's loss. Also, Kansas City had averaged 6.2 runs per game in their 9 prior games. Even though Drew Pomeranz has a much better record and lower ERA on the season in comparison with Ian Kennedy, the Red Sox southpaw has been hit at a .263 clip. Kennedy has only been hit at .205 clip this season and opponents only hit .236 against him last year. The point is that Kennedy has certainly been the victim of some bad breaks this season and, overall, has frequently proven tough to hit. There is significant home underdog value for the Royals in this spot. The Red Sox are only 5-9 this season in road games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. Prior to yesterday's win, Boston had averaged just 6.6 hits per game in their last 5 games. Prior to yesterday's loss, KC had averaged 11 hits per game in their last 9 games. Grab the big dog value here as the Royals won both Kennedy starts against the Red Sox last season and they make it 3 straight Wednesday afternoon. 10* KANSAS CITY money line |
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06-20-17 | Mets v. Dodgers OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-12 | Win | 100 | 25 h 4 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach Tuesday MLB 10* Top Play OVER the total in Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets @ 10:10 ET - Robert Gsellman gets the start for the Mets here and he has a 6.26 ERA and a 1.58 WHIP on the season. He was rocked for 7 earned runs on 11 hits in just 5 innings of work in his most recent start. That start was at home too! On the road this season Gsellman has a 7.96 ERA. The over is 9-3 in his 12 starts this season! As for the Dodgers, they'll have Brandon McCarthy on the mound for this one. Even though he has some strong numbers on the season he has as many walks as strikeouts in his last two starts. He's averaged less than 5 innings per start in his last 3 starts and the Mets, entering Monday's action, are averaging 5.9 runs per game on the road this season. As for the Dodgers they entered Monday night's action having averaged 6.2 runs per game while going 9-1 in their last 10 games. They should have no trouble with the offerings of a struggling Gsellman here while the Mets season-long trend of "overs" continues. New York entered Monday having gone 33-10 to the over in night games this season. Also, the over is a perfect 6-0 this season in Mets Tuesday games. The Dodgers entered Monday's action having gone 17-9 to the over this season in their games against teams with a winning record. Also, the Dodgers are 9-3 to the over this season in home games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. Entering Monday, LA was on an 8-1 run to the over in their last 9 games and the Mets were on a 5-1 run to the over. More of the same expected here on Tuesday. 10* OVER the total in LA Dodgers |
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06-20-17 | Angels +1.5 v. Yankees | Top | 8-3 | Win | 113 | 23 h 37 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach Tuesday MLB 10* Top Play Los Angeles Angels +1.5 runs +115 @ New York Yankees @ 7:05 ET - The Yankees just got swept in a 4-game set at Oakland and they ended up losing 6 straight games overall to finish their West Coast road trip. Even though they were off yesterday, the Yankees are still likely to struggle Tuesday night as it is usually the first game back that it toughest on a East Coast team after returning from out west. The Angels were also off yesterday and, though they lost their game Sunday, they've only lost back to back games once since June 3rd. In other words, expect a bounce back and a win from the Angels here. However, should they fall short in a tight, low-scoring game, look for the run line to be all the insurance we need there. Even at +1.5 runs the Angels are getting some plus money odds here and I'll gladly take it. Michael Pineda gets the start for the Yankees and he has allowed 5 earned runs on 10 hits in two of his last three starts. That's made for two ugly outings for Pineda recently and I look for another one here as one of those tough starts was against these Angels in Anaheim. Pineda now has a 7.50 ERA in the 3 starts he has made against the Angels in his career. As for Parker Bridwell of the Angels, he has only had limited action at the MLB level but his lone start this season was a quality start and I expect another one here. At AAA in the Pacific Coast League this season he has held hitters to just a .248 batting average. Though Bridwell struggled out of the bullpen recently against the Yankees, look for him to get some payback here as the Yanks come out with a bit of a West Coast "hang-over" as they bring the 6-game losing streak into tonight's action. 10* LOS ANGELES ANGELS Run Line +1.5 runs |
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06-18-17 | Red Sox v. Astros OVER 9 | Top | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach Sunday MLB 10* Top Play OVER the total in Houston Astros vs Boston Red Sox @ 8:05 ET - David Price is slated for the start for the Red Sox in tonight's game even though he is dealing with a blister on his throwing hand. Joe Musgrove gets the start for the Astros here even though he struggled through a short outing (couldn't complete 5 innings) versus the Rangers on Monday. Musgrove had just returned from a trip to the disabled list due to shoulder pain. The point is that both of these hurlers have some issues right now and I expect them both to struggle here. After a red hot 6-game tear, the Red Sox lineup has suddenly struggled in their last 3 games. Look for the opportunity for the Boston lineup to "get healthy" versus Musgrove to pay immediate dividends here. Opponents are hitting .290 against Musgrove on the season. As for Boston's Price, the southpaw wasn't exactly spectacular in his most recent start and that was against the lowly Phils. In his last road start he gave up 6 earned runs in 5 innings of work. Considering the blister issue as well as the fact that the Astros have a .463 slugging percentage at home this season (good for 4th in the National League this season), look for Price to again struggle on the road here just like he did in the Bronx earlier this month. The over is 7-2 in Boston's Sunday games this season and the over is 7-2 in Astros games played on Sundays this year. Look for more Sunday fireworks after yesterday's game stalled out and fell short of going over the total even though 6 runs were scored in the first three innings! 10* OVER the total in Houston |
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06-18-17 | Mariners v. Rangers -1.5 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 4 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach Sunday MLB 10* Top Play Texas Rangers Run Line (-1.5 runs) vs Seattle Mariners @ 3:05 ET - This is a bit of a "contrarian" play for me because, as long-time followers know, I like to play underdogs or small faves in MLB. However, even though the Rangers are a big favorite here, line value is available by grabbing them at a great price on the run line in a game they should easily win by 2 or more runs. Simply put, the Rangers are hot and the Mariners are not! With yesterday's 10-4 win, Texas is now 8-2 in their last 10 games and all 8 victories have come by at least 2 runs. Seattle is now 2-6 in their last 8 games and all 6 losses have come by 2 runs or more. The Mariners are sending Christian Bergman to the mound and he is now 1-3 in his 4 road starts this season with a ridiculous 10.61 ERA and 2.14 WHIP! He should prove to be no match for the Rangers Yu Darvish. The fire-balling Texas right-hander has led Texas to an 8-4 mark in his last 12 starts. Only 1 of the 8 wins came by less than 2 runs. Darvish has a stellar 2.93 ERA and 1.09 WHIP on the season. The Mariners are now 13-24 on the road this season after back to back 10-4 losses. The Rangers are 17-3 (85%) the last 3 seasons combined as a home fave in a range of -175 to -250. That's a high percentage chance of victory here and, as noted above, there is a high percentage chance that any Rangers win does come by 2 runs or more. 10* TEXAS Run Line -1.5 runs Sunday afternoon |
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06-17-17 | Cubs v. Pirates OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach Saturday MLB 10* Top Play OVER the total in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs @ 8:15 ET - Jake Arrieta of the Cubs is coming off of a tough start so many will be looking for the "bounce back" here. After all, Arrieta is still a big "name" that guys look to for strong starts. The problem with that theory is he is just not producing this season and this is particularly true on the road. Arrieta gave up 4 runs at home in his most recent start and that was at home. On the road, Arrieta is coming off of a strong start but it was against the light-hitting Padres. Was San Diego's lineup a factor? You bet! In Arrieta's 5 prior road starts he gave up 4 earned runs or more in all 5 starts! Look for another tough outing here for him as Pitsburgh has scored 5 runs or more in 8 of their last 11 games. The Cubs have also been heating up at the plate again after a rare dry spell. Chicago has won 3 of its past 5 games and averaged 7 runs per game during this hot streak. Ivan Nova gets the start for the Pirates. He does have good overall numbers on the season and is off of a strong start. However, prior to shutting down the Marlins in a solid 6-inning outing, Nova had been getting a little "touched up" over his 7 prior starts (including 5 straight where he allowed at least 3 earned runs in every single outing). Nova's ERA in these 7 starts was a respectable 4.40 but he did allow 56 hits in the 45 innings! He now faces a dangerous Cubs lineup and, also helping our cause here is the unsettled Pirates bullpen. Remember those games where they recently blew back to back big leads versus Baltimore in interleague action? Their bullpen had another implosion in last night's 9-5 loss. The Bucs pen can't be trusted, Arrieta can't be trusted for the Cubs, and this one has the makings of another easy over. The over is 4-2 in Nova's last 6 starts and 9-3 in Arrieta's last 12 starts. Cubs divisional games are 20-9 to the over this season. The Pirates are 42-28 to the over in home games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs the past 3 seasons combined. Another wild one expected here! 10* OVER the total in Pittsburgh Saturday evening |
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06-17-17 | Cardinals v. Orioles +100 | Top | 7-15 | Win | 100 | 8 h 0 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach Saturday MLB 10* Top Play Baltimore Orioles Money Line (+) vs St Louis Cardinals @ 4:05 ET - The Cardinals rolled the Orioles 11-2 yesterday and appear to be the popular choice again today. However, long-time followers know I love to fade the masses and I believe the home/road dichotomy of these starting pitchers will prove to be the key. The Orioles Wade Miley has a 2.15 ERA in his 6 home starts this season. In fact, his home ERA was 1.01 on the season before he struggled versus Pittsburgh in his most recent start in Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The southpaw will take advantage of facing a Cardinals team that had lost 10 of 14 prior to yesterday's rare offensive explosion on the road. The Cards are still just 3-6 in interleague games this season while Baltimore is still 6-4 this season and 32-18 the past 3 seasons combined when facing an NL club. Also, the Orioles are still 21-11 at home this season even after yesterday's ugly loss. They'll be facing Adam Wainwright and the Cardinals right-hander has a 7.28 ERA and 1.75 WHIP in his road starts this season! He's made 6 starts away from home this season and Wainwright has been roughed up in 4 of them. That said, odds favor another tough road outing for the St Louis right-hander while I look for the O's southpaw to bounce back at home where he has been much more effective on the mound this season and where, in his career since coming to the Orioles, he has held hitters to about a .250 batting average! 10* BALTIMORE ORIOLES money line Saturday afternoon |
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06-16-17 | Giants v. Rockies OVER 11 | Top | 8-10 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
NL West Total of the Year - Rickenbach Friday MLB 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants @ 8:40 ET - Yes this is an important top pick for me (as you can see from the play title I am using) and yes I am aware that Eduardo Nunez and Buster Posey left last night's game in the latter innings with injuries. However, Nunez only had 1 of the Giants 17 hits yesterday! As for Posey, certainly he is a fantastic hitter but consider his importance behind the plate as well. If Posey isn't behind the dish for San Francisco it could absolutely be impacting to Giants pitcher Jeff Samardzija. Regardless of who ends up behind the plate tonight, Samardzija is likely to struggle. The right-hander got rocked for 7 runs in 5 and 1/3 innings in his last start at Colorado and that was in late April. The weather will be very warm tonight and the hitters for both clubs should again have a huge night at the plate after the 19 run outburst last night. As for the Rockies Antonio Senzatela, he fared well when he faced the Giants earlier this season but he certainly is in poor current form now compared to how he was throwing in the early stages of this season. Senzatela has been hit quite hard in 5 of his last 6 outings. The one exception was an 8-inning gem against St Louis. In the other 5 outings Senzatela allowed 19 earned runs on 30 hits in 25 and 1/3 innings of work. That works out to a 6.75 ERA in those 5 starts and, right now, the Giants have been heating up at the plate. San Francisco has recorded double digits in hits in 4 of their last 7 games. The Giants have averaged 12.3 hits per game in their last 4 games! SF is on a 4-0 run to the over. The over is 8-2 in Senzatela's last 10 starts. Also, the over is 21-11 in San Francisco's road games this season! 10* OVER the total in Colorado |
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06-16-17 | Red Sox +111 v. Astros | Top | 2-1 | Win | 111 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Friday 10* Top Play Boston Red Sox Money Line (+) @ Houston Astros @ 8:10 ET - The Red Sox are off of a 1-0 shutout loss yesterday. I know Boston doesn't have good numbers when off of a shutout loss but I certainly like backing them in this spot given the overall situation. The Red Sox had won 3 straight games and 8 of their last 11 before the surprising loss at Philadelphia last night. Also, in those 8 wins the BoSox have averaged 6.3 runs per game and I look for their lineup to get right back on track here against Michael Fiers. The Astros right-hander is off of a RARE strong home start. In his 3 prior home starts Fiers had allowed 11 runs (10 earned) on 23 hits in less than 17 innings of work. The Red Sox will start Drew Pomeranz and though the southpaw is off of a poor start in his most recent outing, that certainly has been the exception rather than the norm. In fact, Pomeranz had allowed 2 earned runs or less in 8 of his 9 prior starts! Granted he has not pitched deep in many games BUT the Red Sox also have one of the best bullpens in baseball. Boston's relievers have combined to go 12-5 with a 2.83 ERA this season. The Red Sox are 18-9 the last 27 times they were off of a loss this season. The Astros are off of a big 13-2 win over Texas Wednesday but they had lost 6 of their prior 8 games! Also, prior to that offensive explosion, Houston had averaged just 3.2 runs per game in their 5 prior games. In home games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs the Astros have gone 14-16 and -$9,000 the past 3 seasons combined! 10* BOSTON |
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06-15-17 | Giants v. Rockies OVER 11 | Top | 9-10 | Win | 100 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach Thursday MLB 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants @ 8:40 ET - The Giants lost 7-2 yesterday but they did have 10 hits. It was the third time in six games that San Francisco has reached double digits in hits. However, those games were at home and the Giants have actually been swinging the bats better on the road and now head to hitter-friendly Coors Field for this series. San Francisco has averaged 6 runs per game and 10.4 hits per game in their last 7 road games. I am well aware of the fact that Colorado's Jefff Hoffman has put up some phenomenal numbers in his last 3 starts but all those were on the road. Though he does have great strikeout numbers, Hoffman's lone home start did see him allow 3 earned runs on 6 hits and 2 walks in just 5 and 1/3 innings of work. The Rockies are off of a 5-1 win yesterday and are now 9-4 in the month of June. Colorado has averaged 6 runs per game this month and this will be just their 3rd home game so far this month. It is getting to the time of year now when the ball carries exceptionally well at Coors Field and the Rockies scored a combined 19 runs in their other 2 home games this month. They should have no problem with the offerings of Matt Moore. The Giants left-hander has allowed 11 earned runs in less than 10 innings of work spanning his last two starts against the Rockies and one of those outings was in pitcher-friendly San Francisco. Moore is 0-4 on the road this season with a 7.94 ERA and 1.91 WHIP in his 7 starts away from home. The over is 6-0, one push, in his road starts this season. The over is 5-2 this season in Giants road games where they are a dog in a range of +125 to +175. Look for another one here as Moore's over record goes to 7-0 in road games this season! 10* OVER the total in Colorado |
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06-15-17 | Rays +125 v. Tigers | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach Thursday MLB 10* Top Play Tampa Bay Rays Money Line (+) @ Detroit Tigers @ 7:10 ET - The Rays are off of a 7-6 loss last night but had previously won 6 of their last 7 games. Also, Tampa Bay has averaged scoring nearly 7 runs per game in their last 7 games. As for the Tigers, they are off of a 2-1 loss last night and they have now lost 6 of their last 8 games. Yesterday's low-scoring defeat marked the 6th time in their last 8 games that Detroit has been held to 4 runs or less. The Rays have been the hotter team and have been the better hitting team recently as you can see. With that said, there is great line value here with the underdog Tampa Bay. Justin Verlander gets the start for Detroit and, of course, he has a great long-term reputation. The problem for Verlander right now is that he is simply not in good current form. The veteran right-hander has allowed 5 earned runs on 11 hits and 7 walks in the 7 innings spanning his last two starts. Look for another short outing from Verlander here as the Rays sticks stay hot. Tampa will have Alex Cobb on the mound for this one. He had one bad start in early June at Seattle that totally has skewed his numbers. Other than that one bad outing, in the other 7 starts he has made dating back to early May, Cobb has allowed a combined 14 earned runs on 35 hits in 45 and 2/3 innings of work. Those rock solid numbers have produced a 2.76 ERA and that makes Cobb and the Rays a true "live dog" in this spot! The Rays are 7-3 this season in games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. Also, Tampa Bay is 27-18 this season in games against right-handed starters. Detroit is 3-6 this season in home games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs and the Tigers are an ugly 2-6 in Thursday games this season. 10* TAMPA BAY |
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06-14-17 | Rangers v. Astros OVER 9.5 | Top | 2-13 | Win | 102 | 10 h 60 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach Wednesday MLB 10* Top Play OVER the total in Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers @ 8:10 ET - The Astros are starting Francis Martes. He is only 21 years old and this will be his first ever MLB start. In his only other appearance (Friday) he allowed 4 earned runs in 3 and 2/3 innings out of the bullpen. This season has been his first season in the minors above the AA level and it has NOT gone well. Martes has gone winless in 8 starts with a 5.29 ERA and opponents have hit .299 against him! In other words, with a lack of success above the AA level in the minors now Martes makes his first ever MLB start. Now, making the situation even tougher on him is the fact that he faces a red hot Rangers lineup. Texas has won 5 straight games and 6 of their last 7. The Rangers have averaged 5.6 runs per game during this 7-game stretch. As for the Astros, though they've been slumping, they will take advantage of facing the Rangers Andrew Cashner for the 3rd time in the past 6 weeks! In fact, Houston just saw him in Arlington less than 2 weeks ago and they pounded him for 5 earned runs on 11 hits in 6 innings of work. Cashner's strikeout numbers are down this season and the Astros are loaded with sluggers so when they make contact, look out! By the way, the Rangers bullpen (5.57 ERA and 1.68 WHIP on the road) should also help our cause here. On Wednesdays, the over is 6-3 in Astros games and 8-2 in Rangers games this season. Going further back, Texas is 41-19 to the over in Wednesday games the past 3 seasons combined. 10* OVER the total in Houston |
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06-14-17 | Mariners +125 v. Twins | Top | 6-4 | Win | 125 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach Wednesday MLB 10* Top Play Seattle Mariners Money Line (+) @ Minnesota Twins @ 8:10 ET - The Mariners got crushed 20-7 last night. Over the past 3 weeks, Seattle is a perfect 3-0 when off of a loss by a margin of 4 runs or more. Keep in mind, Seattle was on a 11-4 run before last night's loss. Conversely, the Twins have been "scuffling" a bit in recent weeks as they were on a 6-9 run in their last 15 games before getting the win last night. We are getting excellent line value here because Ervin Santana is on the mound for the Twins. Though the Minnesota right-hander has great full-season numbers and is off of a strong start, Santana allowed 7 earned runs in 4 innings in his prior start. Even though that ugly outing was on the road, 2 of his 3 prior home starts have seen him allow 5 and 6 earned runs, respectively. As for the Mariners Sam Gaviglio, he is settling in nicely. He has allowed 1 earned run or less in 4 of his 5 starts this season and he has gone at least 5 innings in all 5 starts. The Twins have never faced him so that is also an edge for Gaviglio. The Mariners are already 7-3 in Wednesday games this season and have won 3 straight starts made by Gaviglio. The Twins are only 1-4 this season as a home fave of -125 to -175 and I expect more struggles here for Minny with this sweet "play against" angle. Overall, the Twins are only 13-19 at home this season and the M's had won 4 straight road games prior to getting crushed yesterday. 10* SEATTLE on the money line Wednesday |
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06-13-17 | Dodgers v. Indians +157 | Top | 7-5 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 0 m | Show |
Rickenbach Tuesday MLB 10* Top Play Cleveland Indians Money Line (+) vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 7:10 ET - This is a typical contrarian play for me and what that means is that we're going against the grain but certainly not without good reason. One of the keys here is Trevor Bauer is off of a poor start but it was to be expected. He was trying to start on 2 days rest after his prior start saw him have to exit during the 2nd inning after a weather delay. As a result, he struggled badly in his most recent start which was at hitter-friendly Colorado on Wednesday. However, in his most recent "normal" start he was at home on May 30th and he allowed just 3 earned runs in 7 innings while striking out 14. Look for Bauer, happy to be home and on normal rest for this one, to again dominate in Cleveland this evening. The Indians are 52-28 the last 3 seasons combined in home games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. The Dodgers are 18-29 the last 3 seasons combined in road games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. Why the big line on LA here? Of course that's because Los Angeles has Clayton Kershaw on the hill for this one. However, remember his recent start against last year's other World Series participant (the world champion Cubs)? Kershaw allowed 4 earned runs on 11 hits in just 4 and 1/3 innings of work. The Dodgers southpaw gave up 3 homers in that start too. Don't be surprised if this one is another tough outing for the big lefty. The Indians are 6-2 in their last 8 home games and have averaged 6 runs per game during this stretch. The Dodgers are off of a 3-game sweep where they hit well but that was against a bad Reds team. Prior to that Los Angeles had scored 2 runs or less in 7 of their last 8 games. This one truly has all the right ingredients for a big upset. In fact, the Dodgers bullpen has a 3.39 ERA on the road and the Indians bullpen has a 1.59 ERA at home and this is yet another edge for the Tribe in this one. 10* CLEVELAND INDIANS money line early Tuesday evening. |
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06-12-17 | Cavs +9 v. Warriors | Top | 120-129 | Push | 0 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach Monday NBA 10* Top Play Cleveland Cavaliers (+) @ Golden State Warriors @ 9 ET - After getting embarrassed by 21 points in Game 4 at Cleveland on Friday the Warriors have to bounce back here, right? Not necessarily! In fact, Golden State is laying a sizable number here even though they are 1-5 ATS this season when off of a loss by 10 points or more. While it is likely that the Warriors close out the series tonight, it would not be a complete shock if the Cavs got the upset win. They've done it before here at Golden State in spots very similar to this one. However, the real key is the line value because lets not forget that Cleveland, at halftime, was only down by 8 to the Warriors in Game One and just 3 to the Warriors in Game Two here. Then the Cavs should have won Game Three were it not for blowing a sizable lead very late. Now, with the added confidence of having won Game Four, look for the Cavs to be able to stay close with Golden State all the way in this one. As you can see, they've "been right there" with the Warriors for much more of this series than what the final scores would lead you to believe but the odds makers simply have to keep this number big on Golden State because the public is likely to be all over them in "bounce back mode" here. In addition to that 1-5 ATS mark for the Warriors off of a double digits loss, also note that the Cavs are 22-10 SU (and have had just 12 ATS losses in those 32 games) when off of a win by a margin of 10 points or more. Momentum is huge when it comes to ATS covers and the Cavaliers have it and will seize the moment here. 10* CLEVELAND plus the big points Monday night. |
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06-12-17 | Rangers v. Astros OVER 8.5 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach Monday MLB 10* Top Play OVER the total in Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers @ 8:10 ET - Happy to go contrarian here as the early move pushed this total from a 9 down to an 8.5 and I understand the move based on Yu Darvish being on the mound for the Rangers and Joe Musgrove having thrown 7 scoreless innings in his most recent start. However, here are the keys to value for this total. Darvish is 0-4 with a 5.81 ERA in his last 6 starts versus the Astros. These teams face each other a lot so there is plenty of familiarity for the Houston hitters with Darvish. Also, the Rangers right-hander has particularly struggled versus the Astros of late with 8 earned runs allowed on 14 hits in just 9 innings of work spanning his last two starts against Houston. As for Musgrove, though he's off of a strong start, that outing took place two weeks ago as he's just now coming back from a trip to the disabled list with a shoulder injury. I do not expect him to be 100% here and he has given up 13 runs (12 earned) in only 14 and 2/3 innings spanning his last 3 starts versus the Rangers. Those 3 outings included 2 September starts and then another start versus Texas last month so the Rangers have seen plenty of him recently. Again, that familiarity often leads to success for the hitters. The over is a perfect 3-0 in Musgrove's last 3 starts against the Rangers and none of Darvish's last 3 starts have stayed under the total! The Rangers have scored 5 runs or more in 8 of their last 11 games. The Astros have averaged 7 runs per game in going 13-4 in their last 17 games! Plenty of potency expected from both of these lineups today! The over is 9-3-2 in the Astros last 14 games and the over is 13-8 in Texas' games against teams with a winning record this season. 10* OVER the total in Houston Monday evening. |
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06-12-17 | Cubs +118 v. Mets | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
No Doubt Blowout Rout - Rickenbach Monday MLB 10* Top Play Chicago Cubs Money Line (+) @ New York Mets @ 7:10 ET - The Cubs John Lackey has been charged with some significant earned runs in a few of his recent starts but he has allowed only 35 hits in his last 35 and 1/3 innings. The point is that he certainly has not been getting hit as hard as Jacob deGrom has been for the Mets. The New York right-hander has allowed 15 earned runs on 18 hits (and 6 walks) in just 8 innings of work spanning his last two starts. By the way, as you can see with the 18 hits and 6 walks that means he has a 3.00 WHIP in his last two outings. Allowing an average of 3 baserunners per inning gets any pitcher into trouble early and often and I look for more of the same here for deGrom. The Cubs got their sticks going again yesterday with 7 runs on 12 hits in a win over the Rockies. Even though the Cubs bats have certainly not been "on fire" of late that could be a turning point for them and they're certainly catching deGrom at the right time to enjoy success. The Cubs are 6-4 in their last 10 games and they've averaged 4.5 runs per game in those 10 games. As for the Mets, they are 5-6 in their last 11 games and they've been held to 2 runs or less in 4 of the 6 losses. They also only scored 2 runs in yesterday's win. Look for the Mets to drop to 3-7 this season in home games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. As for the Cubs, they are on a long-term 83-49 run in all games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. 10* CHICAGO CUBS money line early Monday evening. |
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06-11-17 | Penguins +122 v. Predators | Top | 2-0 | Win | 122 | 27 h 24 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NHL Saturday 10* Top Play Pittsburgh Penguins Money Line (+) @ Nashville Predators @ 8 ET - Though it may seem "crazy" to back the Penguins here because the home team has won every game in this series AND the Predators are 9-1 at home in the post-season, there are a couple of key factors I like about the Pens here. For you history buffs out there note that when the Penguins win the Stanley Cup they've done it on the road. That has been the pattern and I don't see it changing here. The fact is that the Penguins really took the wind out of the Predators sails in Game 5. The Pens didn't just win that game, they absolutely crushed Nashville in the process. Sure the Preds are back home and sure they have have success here but that was an absolutely deflating defeat for the Predators as they immediately gave up back all the momentum they had earned by winning games 3 and 4 by a combined 9-2 score. The point is that, had the Preds lost a tight one in game 5 the reaction might be different. But to get totally clobbered like the Predators just did, is extremely deflating. It's just not the same thing as coming home down 2-0 in the series but knowing you still have 3 potential home games and a long series in front of you. In this case, the Preds now come home down 3-2 and knowing that everything they worked so hard for is gone, completely gone. The Predators got absolutely dominated in Game 5 and the Penguins proved they are certainly hungrier than a lot of people, including myself, gave them credit for. That said, I am forecasting the Pens to become the first team in nearly 20 years to win back to back Stanley Cup titles and, as they've always done before, I am forecasting them to win it on the road. Pittsburgh has been there, done that. The Predators certainly haven't and they showed me all I needed to see in Game 5. The Preds are done. Look for the Predators to drop to 4-7 the last 11 times they're off of a game where they allowed 4 goals or more. Look for the Penguins to improve to 30-18 this season when off of a game where they scored 4 goals or more. 10* PITTSBURGH PENGUINS money line Sunday |
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06-11-17 | Blue Jays +147 v. Mariners | Top | 4-0 | Win | 147 | 8 h 31 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Sunday 10* Top Play Toronto Blue Jays Money Line (+) @ Seattle Mariners @ 4:10 ET - The Mariners with James Paxton on the mound will certainly be the popular choice here but I see tremendous underdog line value here with J.A. Happ and the Blue Jays. Toronto got the 4-2 win yesterday and I look for them to carry momentum right into this game. Look for Happ to be at his best today as he'll now be making his 3rd start since coming off of the disabled list. That means he has had a couple outings to work the kinks out and Happ has allowed only 7 hits in 9 and 1/3 innings since coming off of the disabled list. The trouble for the Jays southpaw has been that he has allowed a pair of dingers in each start. However, in his last 3 starts against the Mariners he has a 2.00 ERA and has only allowed 1 homer in 18 innings. The M's Paxton is 5-0 this season while Toronto's Happ is 0-4 this season. Of course this makes Seattle look like a "must play" in this spot but Paxton is coming of his 3rd unimpressive start in his last 5 outings. In these 3 subpar starts, Paxton has combined to allow 10 runs (9 earned) on 19 hits and 9 walks in just 14 and 2/3 innings of work. As you can see, Paxton has allowed nearly 2 baserunners per inning in those starts and his 5.52 ERA in those 3 outings and that ERA could easily be worse. The last time Happ started at Seattle was late last season and the Jays won 10-2 and he struck out 8 in 5 innings. I see tremendous line value here and Paxton has a 6.32 ERA in his career against the Jays. Seattle has just 27 hits in their last 4 games and the Blue Jays are 12-6 in their last 18 games and are building up more and more confidence with each win. Look for them to be aggressive at the plate and enjoy success against Paxton whom did go 1-3 and got hit at a .320 clip last June. He's fortunate to be 5-0 this season. That good fortune turns today as the Jays hand him his first loss of 2017. Seattle is 55-74 against left-handed starters the past 2+ seasons while the Blue Jays are 39-25 in Sunday games the past 2+ seasons. 10* TORONTO |
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06-11-17 | Brewers v. Diamondbacks OVER 8.5 | Top | 1-11 | Win | 100 | 7 h 56 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Arizona Diamondbacks vs Milwaukee Brewers @ 4:10 ET - The first number that popped up on this total was a 9.5 but it was immediately bet down to an 8.5 before big bets were even able to come in. The point is that knowing where the odds makers heads were when setting a line is always helpful and I understand this will be a contrarian play with the public but this total has a great shot at surprising many. Even though the Brewers Chase Anderson and the Diamondbacks Ricky Ray have thrown extremely well of late, there are a number of key variables favoring the over. 2 of Anderson's last 3 starts have been at home and note that on the road this season he has a 4.36 ERA and the over is 4-2 in those 6 outings. 2 of Ray's last 3 starts have been on the road and note that at home this season he has a 5.67 ERA and the over is 5-1 in those 6 outings. Also, these lineups just faced these starting pitchers two weeks ago. The hurlers held the upper hand in those meetings but don't be surprised if the hitters fare much better in the rematch! The Brewers had averaged 6 runs and 11.5 hits per game in their last 4 games before getting shutdown yesterday. The Diamondbacks had averaged 8.6 runs per game in their last 5 games before yesterday's tight 3-2 win over Milwaukee. On the season Arizona is averaging 6.4 runs per game at home and the Brewers have a .450 slugging percentage versus lefties (ranks among tops in the league) and they have averaged 5.3 runs per game in match-ups with southpaw starters this year! Look for the over to improve to 10-5 this season in Brewers games against left-handers this season! The Diamondbacks had recorded 5 straight overs before yesterday's pitchers duel. Look for the "over trend" to resume here. 10* OVER the total in Arizona |
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06-10-17 | Twins +137 v. Giants | Top | 3-2 | Win | 137 | 7 h 14 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Saturday 10* Top Play Minnesota Twins Money Line (+) @ San Francisco Giants @ 4:05 ET - The Twins won 4-0 last night and the Giants struggles at the plate continued. San Francisco has now been held to 3 runs or less in 7 of their last 11 games. The Giants are likely to struggle again here as they face a tough hurler in Jose Berrios. The Twins right-hander is 4-1 with a 2.75 ERA and a 0.89 ERA as a starter this season. Minnesota is a perfect 3-0 in his road starts this season and, overall, the Twins are an incredible 19-8 in road games this season. Keep in mind, the Giants have a losing record at home this season and Jeff Samardzija is 2-7 on the season. The San Francisco right-hander has given up "only" 3 earned runs in each of his last two home starts but he allowed a total of 18 hits in those two outings even though the starts combined for a total of less than 11 innings. The Giants are only 2-4 this season after being shutout while the Twins are 3-1 this season after shutting out their opponent! San Francisco is an ugly 7-14 in day games this season. Their price has climbed higher since opening around the pick'em price range it truly belonged in. That said, there is phenomenal line value here with the underdog Twins. The Giants have lost 8 of their last 11 games and that includes 4 straight home games. The Twins have won 17 of their last 22 road games! Berrios has good stuff and the Giants hitters have no experience him. Samardzija has been hit hard in recent home starts and the Twins have a number of hitters with significant experience against him. 10* MINNESOTA TWINS money line in afternoon action Saturday |
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06-10-17 | Phillies v. Cardinals OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-7 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 47 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in St Louis Cardinals vs Philadelphia Phillies @ 2:15 ET - Despite 18 hits in yesterdays game, it easily stayed under the total as the Cardinals prevailed 3-2. I won't hesitate to come right back with the over in this afternoon's rematch. The ball tends to carry well in afternoon games at Busch Stadium and the wind is going to be blowing out to left-center in warm day game action in St Louis Saturday. The Phillies are starting Nick Pivetta and he continues to be shaky on the mound. In his most recent start he only allowed 3 earned runs but he did give up 6 hits plus walked 3 in his 5 innings of work. That short start means that Pivetta has not lasted longer than 5 innings in any of his 5 starts this season. Carlos Martinez gets the start for St Louis today and he has good overall numbers on the year but he is just 1-2 with a 5.09 ERA in his 4 day game starts this season. Also, throughout his career, the righty has been tougher on right-handed bats than left-handed sticks and this season has been no different. Martinez has a 2.32 ERA against righties but a 4.42 ERA versus lefties. That is significant because the Phillies meat of the order has been hot and so, though they are righties, I expect them to stay hot against Martinez. Where the lefty/righty match-up helps is in the fact that much of the rest of the Phillies lineup includes switch-hitters and left-handed bats so don't be surprised if they enjoy some success here. With the Cards also likely to pound Pivetta, that sets this one up nicely for a slugfest on a warm afternoon at Busch Stadium with a hitter-friendly breeze. Also note that both of these bullpens have struggled this season and their ERA ranks them each in the lower third of the majors. Look for the over to make it 4-0 in Pivetta's last 4 starts. As a road dog of +125 or more this season, the Phillies are 14-7 to the over. Also, Philadelphia is 42-20 to the over in June games the past 3 seasons combined. The Cardinals are 15-9 to the over this season in their games against teams with a losing record. 10* OVER the total in St Louis in early afternoon action Saturday |
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06-09-17 | Warriors v. Cavs +200 | Top | 116-137 | Win | 200 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA Friday 10* Top Play Cleveland Cavaliers (+200) vs Golden State Warriors @ 9 ET - I am actually recommending playing this one on the money line. You get 2 to 1 odds by playing Cleveland on the money line and I just don't see the Cavaliers getting swept on their home floor. LeBron James and Company are certainly going to do everything in their power to avoid being a part of history as the Warriors look to become the first team ever to go all the way through the post-season without a loss. While the Game 3 loss was certainly demoralizing for the Cavs, there are no tomorrows should they lose Game 4. In other words, look for the Cavaliers to use Game 3 as added motivation and added confidence. How can they get confidence from that final outcome? It is because they had the very late lead in that game and lets also not forget that Cleveland rallied from a 3-1 series deficit last season to win the championship. They know they face long odds but certainly the Cavs are just taking it one game at a time and the one thing they don't want to have happen is for the Warriors to make history on the Cavaliers home floor. The Warriors shot a ridiculous 48.5% from three point land in Game 3 on the road. That certainly was the difference in the game and it is highly unlikely to be repeated in Game 4 as I just don't see another huge performance from beyond the arc coming again in Game 4. The Wednesday performance was other-worldly! Look for Golden State to drop to 4-8 ATS on Fridays this season while the Cavaliers improve to 13-4 ATS in Friday games. Also, the Cavs do have a long-term mark of 7-2 SU (and 6-3 ATS) in home games with a posted total of 220 points or more and that is even after the crazy finish leading to a loss in Game 3. I am grabbing the Cavaliers on the money line in this one and expecting to triple our money tonight thanks to the 2 to 1 odds! 10* CLEVELAND money line +200 |
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06-09-17 | Phillies v. Cardinals OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 runs in St Louis Cardinals vs Philadelphia Phillies @ 8:15 ET - The Phillies Jeremy Hellickson is winless in his last 3 starts and has compiled a 7.72 ERA and 1.72 WHIP in these 3 outings. The Cardinals Michael Wacha is winless in his last 3 starts and has compiled an 11.92 ERA and a 2.38 WHIP in these 3 outings. Also, Hellickson gave up 6 earned runs in 5 and 1/3 innings in his only career start at St Louis. Wacha has given up 4 earned runs or more in 2 of his 3 career starts versus the Phillies. The over is 8-2 in Wacha's 10 starts this season. Also, the over is 15-8 in Cardinals games against teams with a losing record this season. The Phillies are 42-19 to the over in June games the past 2+ seasons combined! The over is also 21-11 in Philadelphia's night games this season and the over is 10-4 when the Phils are a road dog in a range of +125 to +175. Light breeze blowing out toward left-center with hitter-friendly conditions expect on a mild night at Busch Stadium Friday. 10* OVER 8.5 runs in St Louis |
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06-09-17 | Angels +160 v. Astros | Top | 9-4 | Win | 160 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Friday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Angels Money Line (+) @ Houston Astros @ 8:10 ET - There is a lot of underdog value here with the Angels. Matt Shoemaker has held the Astros to a .200 batting average long-term. Also, this season the Los Angeles right-hander has simply been hurt by the long ball when facing Houston. He's giving up 2 homers in each start against them but only allowed a total of 8 hits in the 13 innings spanning those two starts. Also, Shoemaker has allowed just 2 earned runs in each of his last 2 starts at Houston. He comes into this start having compiled a 2.73 ERA in his last 5 starts overall. I know the Astros Brad Peacock has pitched surprisingly well overall since moving into the rotation. However, he has a 5.06 ERA in his last two starts and he also allowed 5 earned runs in less than 5 innings of work in his most recent start against the Angels and that wasn't that long ago - Sept. 30th. Off of a big 11-4 win yesterday afternoon at Detroit, Los Angeles has some momentum heading into Houston as the Angels have won 3 of their last 5 games. The Astros 6-1 win yesterday looks impressive on the surface but they got a 5-spot in the top of the 9th and lets not forget they had lost their two prior games. Simply put, Houston just can't keep winning at the ridiculous clip they were winning at. LA has won 6 of the last 8 starts made my Shoemaker and I see another upset coming here as the Angels have the advantage of having played a day game yesterday while the Astros were in a fierce battle in Kansas City last night. Travel situation favors the road team here. After a 10-game road trip, Houston could prove to be spent! 10* LOS ANGELES ANGELS money line |
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06-08-17 | Predators +145 v. Penguins | Top | 0-6 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
NBC Blowout Rout - Rickenbach NHL Thursday 10* Top Play Nashville Predators Money Line (+) @ Pittsburgh Penguins @ 8 ET - The Predators have outshot the Penguins in every single game in this series. The Pens are 0 for 13 on the power play in the last 3 games. The Preds are 4 for 12 on the power play in this series. Nashville goalie Pekka Rinne has proven he's "back" in this series and he's highly motivated to record his first ever win at Pittsburgh. The Predators have looked to have a little more energy than the Penguins and a little extra "step" on them in the last two games and they certainly have all the momentum back in this series. No Stanley Cup champion has repeated in the past twenty years. The point is that it is not easy and the way the Preds have taken back momentum in this series, and knowing that the Penguins can't help but now have some self doubt, I expect the Predators to "steal" Game 5 on the road. All the pressure is truly on the Penguins here and it is tough to play with pressure. Not only the pressure of being the defending Stanley Cup champs but also the pressure of now trying to defense home ice even though they lost the last two games by a combined score of 9 to 2 in Nashville. In my opinion, all things considered, the Penguins are very over-priced here and there is tremendous underdog line value with the Predators. Look for the Preds to improve to a perfect 4-0 in this post-season when tied in a playoff series. 10* NASHVILLE PREDATORS on the money line |
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06-08-17 | Rockies +167 v. Cubs | Top | 4-1 | Win | 167 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Thursday 10* Top Play Colorado Rockies Money Line (+) @ Chicago Cubs @ 8:05 ET - The Rockies are a big dog here despite being 21-10 on the road this season. I understand the Cubs have Jon Lester on the mound and the veteran southpaw is known for pitching well at home. However, Tyler Chatwood gets the start for the Rockies and the right-hander went a fantastic 8-1 with a stellar 1.69 ERA away from home last season and is 3-3 with a 2.68 ERA on the road this season. Incredibly, opponents are batting just .168 against Chatwood when he faces them away from Coors Field. As you can see, Chatwood's overall numbers this season and last season have certainly been impacted by the fact he pitches his home games at hitter-friendly Coors Field. The fact is that Chatwood has been dominant in road outings and I expect that to continue here. The Cubs are only 5-7 in their last 12 games. In those dozen games, the Cubbies had just 2 big games at the plate. In the other 10 games, the Cubs averaged just 5.1 HITS per game. As you can see, Chicago really hasn't been hitting the ball well at all and Chatwood is 2-0 with a 0.69 ERA in his two career starts against the Cubs. The Rockies have won 5 of their last 6 games and have averaged 7 runs and 11 hits per game in those 6 games. Look for them to stay hot here as Lester has allowed 9 earned runs on 13 hits (including 3 homers) in last 2 starts and those outings have spanned just 9 and 1/3 innings! 10* COLORADO ROCKIES money line |
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06-08-17 | Red Sox v. Yankees OVER 7.5 | Top | 1-9 | Win | 100 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox @ 7:05 ET - Many books opened this total up at an 8.5 yesterday afternoon but the betting markets are telling the odds makers they don't know what they're doing as the markets have forced the odds makers down to a 7.5 with this total as of Thursday AM. Long-time followers know how I feel about the value of the odds makers compared to the betting markets! The point is that we're getting extreme line value here with this big downward move on this total. Yes I know David Price is on the mound for the BoSox but he has allowed 14 earned runs on 32 hits in 18 innings of work spanning his last 3 starts against the Yankees. Also, all 3 of those outings came after the midway point of last season so it's not like it is ancient history by any stretch of the imagination. Price will be opposed by the Yankees Michael Pineda. The Yanks right-hander has allowed 7 earned runs on 13 hits including 4 homers in his last 2 home starts versus the Red Sox. Also, Pineda comes into this outing off of a rough start in his most recent outing. The over was 5-2 in the Yankees last 7 games before yesterday's game stayed just under the total. The over is 19-10 in Yanks divisional games this season. The over is also 13-7 in Boston's last 20 road games. More of the same here as both pitchers struggled against lineups that have fared very well against them in recent meetings. 10* OVER the total in the New York Yankees game |
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06-07-17 | Warriors v. Cavs UNDER 227 | Top | 118-113 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach Wednesday NBA 10* Top Play UNDER the total in Cleveland Cavaliers vs Golden State Warriors - In the typical zig zag of the markets throughout a playoff series now this total has shot back up. That is offering us significant line value here as Golden State is 18-9 to the under in road games with a posted total of 220 or more this season. Generally speaking, the Warriors have more offensive hiccups on the road than at home. In other words, if there is going to be game where the shots aren't falling so well for Stephen Curry and Company, look for it to be this game. The Cavaliers will come out fired up at home and in an 0-2 hole. They must go into shut-down mode on defense as much as possible and look to get the Warriors out of their rhythm - at least as much as that is possible. I look for LeBron James and Company to do just that. Even with the over in Game 2, the under is 12-5 this season (and 36-17 the last 3 seasons combined) in Cavaliers games as an underdog. Also, the Cavs haven't recorded back to back overs in a series since Games 1 and 2 of the Toronto series in very early May. After allowing 132 points on the road in Game 2 to the Warriors, look for the Cavaliers to bring a defensive mindset this one and play very aggressively to limit easy scores for Golden State. The result should be a total falling well short of this number in Game 3 Wednesday night. 10* UNDER the total in Cleveland |
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06-07-17 | Red Sox v. Yankees OVER 9 | Top | 0-8 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach Wednesday MLB 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox @ 7:05 ET - I know CC Sabathia has pitched well recently but he has been rocked in 2 of his last 3 starts versus Boston and the Red Sox hitters are very familiar with him. As for Rick Porcello, though he has a decent ERA in his last 3 starts he truly has been getting hit hard and that means we get hidden value here with this over. The total opened up at a 9.5 even though Sabathia has a 2.04 ERA in his last 3 starts and even though Porcello has a 3.65 ERA in his last 2 starts. The key here is Sabathia's likelihood to struggle with the BoSox lineup AND the fact that Porcello has allowed 30 hits in the 19 innings spanning his last 3 starts! The Red Sox right-hander has simply been fortunate he's been able to avoid big damage in those starts but I expect an implosion is imminent for him with the way he's been getting hit so hard. The Yankees have averaged 6 runs per game in their last 9 games. The Red Sox have averaged 6 runs per game in their last 15 games which has encompassed a red hot 11-4 run for Boston. Two hot hitting teams, two starters likely to struggle, and a total moving favorably for our purposes. This is a great spot for a Top Total in my book. 10* OVER the total in New York Yankees |
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06-07-17 | Pirates +137 v. Orioles | Top | 6-9 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 0 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach Wednesday MLB 10* Top Play Pittsburgh Pirates Money Line (+) @ Baltimore Orioles @ 7:05 ET - Look for the Pirates to bounce back after they blew last night's game by giving up a pair of runs in the bottom of the 9th which led to an eventual 10-inning loss to the Orioles. The Pirates Chad Kuhl has a sparkling 1.19 WHIP in his road starts his season and a 1.18 WHIP in his last 3 starts overall. The point is that he has been better away from home than in Pittsburgh this season AND he is in better current form than what his ERA shows. I feel this is giving us substantial underdog line value here because another edge that Kuhl has is that that the Orioles have not faced him. As for the Pirates, they faced the Orioles Wade Miley last season and rocked him for 5 earned runs in just 4 innings of work. Even though the Baltimore southpaw has some solid full season numbers he truly has been quite hittable dating all the back to April 30th. Prior to a surprisingly solid start versus Boston in his last outing, Miley had given up 38 hits in the 27 and 2/3 innings spanning his 6 prior starts. As you can see from those numbers, he has gone through some very hittable stretches over the past 5 weeks and I expect that trend to quickly resume here. Also, the Pirates had won 6 of their last 9 road games prior to yesterday's loss. As for the Orioles, they had lost 16 of their last 23 games prior to the comeback win last night. Solid dog value here Wednesday evening and I'll take it! 10* PITTSBURGH PIRATES money line |
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06-06-17 | Indians v. Rockies OVER 10.5 | Top | 3-11 | Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach Tuesday MLB 10* Top Play OVER 10.5 runs +100 in Colorado Rockies vs Cleveland Indians @ 8:40 ET - I know the Indians Mike Clevinger has surprisingly decent numbers since moving into the rotation but, in my opinion, the last 2 starts are a sign of things to come. Clevinger has given up 7 earned runs in the less than 12 innings of work spanning his last 2 starts AND he gave up 2 homers in EACH outing! Now he has to pitch at hitter-friendly Coors Field and this one is offering great line value with the downward line move from an opener of 11. We're getting some value here because, just like Clevinger, Antonio Senzatela is over-rated and he is also showing some signs that a bit of an unraveling is about to take place. Senzatela has just one quality start in his last 4 starts. In the other 3 starts he only worked 5 innings in each start plus allowed 4 innings in each starts. That's a consistent 7.20 ERA in those 3 starts. Senzatela has been fortunate in that he gets a lot of run support and that has also helped lead the way to a 6-2 run to the over in his last 8 starts. The Rockies game Sunday at San Diego stayed under the total but that was just the 2nd over in Colorado's last 8 games. The Rockies have been a surprisingly strong team this season and they have averaged 5.4 runs per game at home this season. The Indians come into this one hot at the plate and have averaged 5.8 runs per game in their last 8 games. Senzatela's most recent home start was a gem but his 4 prior home starts went 4-0 to the over. At hitter-friendly Coors Field, look for the over to improve to 8-3 in Rockies Tuesday games this season. 10* OVER 10.5 runs in Colorado |
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06-06-17 | Red Sox +105 v. Yankees | Top | 5-4 | Win | 105 | 14 h 43 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach Tuesday MLB 10* Top Play - Boston Red Sox Money Line (+) @ New York Yankees @ 7:05 ET - Considering that the Yankees are 17-8 at home this season and the Red Sox have a losing record on the road plus Masahiro Tanaka is 6-2 versus Boston in his career while Drew Pomeranz is winless in 4 career starts versus the Yanks, you may be surprised to see New York as such a small favorite here. However, this low line is absolutely justified and I am grabbing the small road dog BoSox in this one. Pomeranz is 2-0 in his last 3 starts with a 2.12 ERA and he has struck out 25 in the 17 innings spanning those 3 starts. Conversely, the Yankees have lost 4 straight Tanaka starts and the right-hander has an 11.21 ERA in these 4 starts. Plus Tanaka has given up 48 hits in the 31 innings spanning his 6 starts since he shutout Boston in late April. Much has changed for Tanaka since that rare shutout win over the BoSox and they get their revenge here on Tuesday night in a big AL East battle. 10* BOSTON on the money line |
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06-05-17 | Astros v. Royals OVER 9 | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 25 h 42 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB 10* Monday Top Play OVER the total in Kansas City Royals vs Houston Astros @ 8:15 ET - Despite scoring 7 runs yesterday, the Astros game stayed under the total. Despite allowing 8 runs yesterday, the Royals game stayed under the total. I love situations like these as we now grab the over the very next day even though many will be looking at the under because of yesterday's results. That helps to hold a total in place and I like the value here in this spot because Houston's Mike Fiers has a 5.13 ERA on the season and Kansas City's Ian Kennedy is 0-5 with a 5.12 ERA on the season. Since Kennedy came off of the disabled list he's made 3 outings and none have lasted longer than 5 innings. I know Fiers has surprisingly decent numbers but this is still a guy who got hit at a .280 clip lase season and also is getting hit at a .280 clip again this season. Plus Fiers has given up 18 homers in his 11 starts this season. For the Royals, the over is on a perfect 5-0 run when they are off of a game where they allowed 1 run or less or scored 1 run or less or both (they had a 1-0 game recently). Look for this run of overs to improve to 6-0 Monday as they respond off of a shutout loss. Also, the red hot Astros offense has scored 68 runs in their last 7 games! That's an average of 9.7 runs per game and Houston should stay hot against Kennedy as he has a horrible 12.60 ERA in his last 3 starts. In Astros road games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs, the over is 24-9 the past 2+ seasons! That means we're testing a combined 29-9 mark to the over in this one (including the aforementioned 5-0 involving Royals). 10* OVER the total in Kansas City |
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06-05-17 | Penguins v. Predators OVER 5.5 | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 21 m | Show |
NBC Blowout Rout - Rickenbach NHL Monday 10* Top Play OVER 5.5 goals +115 in Nashville Predators vs Pittsburgh Penguins @ 8 ET - I know it seems crazy that we're seeing so much scoring in these Finals but there is truly no reason to expect it to stop. Also, after seeing a ridiculous total of only 38 shots on goal in Game 1, we saw an average of 63 shots on goal in the next two games. The pace is likely to continue to "pick up" here in Game 4 as the Predators want to jump right on the Penguins Monday night and retain the momentum they worked so hard to attain by nothing the big Saturday night win. As for the Pens, they are hungry to respond after scoring just 1 goal in Game 3 and the Penguins had averaged nearly 4 goals per game in their 6 prior games so a response can certainly be expected here. On the season, Pittsburgh is 10-5 to the over when off of a game where they were held to 1 goal or less. Also, when leading in a playoff series, the Penguins are a long-term 48-27 to the over. The Predators, in recent seasons, are 6-3 to the over when trailing in a playoff series. The Preds are also 20-10 to the over this season (and 47-26 to the over long-term) when off of a game where they scored 4 goals or more. The Predators power play is now 4 for 10 in this series and the Penguins power play is far too strong to keep struggling as it has in the past two games. Another crazy atmosphere in Nashville Monday and plenty of goals for both clubs expected here. I know Pekka Rinne bounced back but these are the defending champs he's facing and he did struggle in Pittsburgh. As for Matt Murray, he's starting to show some vulnerability too as expected. 10* OVER the total in Nashville |
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06-04-17 | Cavs +9 v. Warriors | Top | 113-132 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 46 m | Show |
ABC Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Sunday 10* Top Play Cleveland Cavaliers (+) @ Golden State Warriors @ 8 ET - The Cavaliers have no chance in this series. At least that is prevailing public opinion after the way Game 1 played out. Of course we all know how it usually plays out after the public gets one-sided about things after one game. The point is that the value is clearly with the road dog in this one. The opening line on this game was a 7 and it is now up to a 9. The Warriors turned the ball over just 4 times in Game 1 while the Cavaliers turned it over 20 times. Do you really think that the Cavs are again going to lose the turnover battle 20-4? Do you really think that a LeBron James Cleveland team that also has Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love is just going to lay down in Game 2 after getting embarrassed in Game 1? The Cavaliers were on an 8-0 ATS run away from home before the ugly loss Thursday at Golden State. That was their first non-cover away from Cleveland since in nearly TWO MONTHS - April 9th! Look for the Warriors to drop to 3-10 ATS on the season in Sunday games! They've been feeling a little too good about themselves with their perfect record in this post-season and don't you think beautiful Saturdays in California have a little something to do with that ugly Sunday ATS record for the Warriors? Trust me the Cavaliers certainly have been all business after what happened in Game 1. They'll make some adjustments. Grab the big points. 10* CLEVELAND |
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06-04-17 | Astros v. Rangers +124 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 49 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach Sunday MLB 10* Top Play Texas Rangers Money Line (+) vs Houston Astros @ 3:05 ET - Brad Peacock gets the start for the Astros and he has only lasted a total of 9 innings in his first two starts in the rotation and gave up 4 earned runs in less than 5 inning of work in his most recent start. Martin Perez has a rather high ERA in his last 3 starts but only a 1.26 WHIP in those 3 outings and I feel he is offering some solid value here as we have the better starter on the mound and the home team. I know the Astros are in a fantastic win streak but they barely won yesterday's game and the Rangers are still a long-term 16-6 in home games against Houston the past 2+ seasons. After that tight one-run loss yesterday, look for the Rangers to bounce back here. The Astros are hitting 24 points lower versus lefties compared to righties this season. Also, Houston is 1-4 in Peacock's 5 career starts against Texas while the Rangers are 6-3 in the 9 career starts Perez has made against the Rangers. Look for the home dog to explode on offense today and that will prove to be plenty of run support for southpaw Perez as he has a solid 2.49 ERA in his career starts against the Astros! 10* TEXAS RANGERS money line Sunday Afternoon |
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06-03-17 | Penguins v. Predators OVER 5.5 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 125 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach NHL 10* Top Play OVER 5.5 goals +125 in Nashville Predators vs Pittsburgh Penguins @ 8 ET - Pekka Rinne has been the weak link in this series for the Predators so far as they've lost the first two games by a combined score of 9-4. While I do expect the Preds to respond today, I also expect the Penguins to come into this one very relaxed and confident by virtue of holding the 2-0 series lead. As a result, they will likely put intense pressure on Rinne in this one as they can be a little more aggressive since they have the 2-0 series lead. The Predators have averaged 3.2 goals per game at home on the season and the Penguins have averaged 3.8 goals per game in their last 5 games. Don't be surprised when this one turns into a barnburner. The last 10 times the Preds have been trailing in a playoff series, only 3 games have stayed under the total. The Pens are 29-17 to the over when they are off of a game where they scored 4 goals or more this season. Look for the over to improve to 13-6 in Pittsburgh's Saturday games on the season. 10* OVER 5.5 goals +125 in Nashville Saturday |
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06-03-17 | Astros v. Rangers +154 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Saturday 10* Top Play Texas Rangers Money Line (+) vs Houston Astros @ 7:15 ET - The Rangers Andrew Cashner has been solid with a 2-1 record and 2.90 ERA in his last five outings. Opponents are hitting only .079 against him with runners in scoring position as he continues to be at his best in key situations. Even though he is winless in his three starts against the Astros in his career he has been solid with a 2.90 ERA. As a result, I feel we're being offered solid home dog value here with the Rangers. The Astros have Lance McCullers on the mound and he is 0-3 with a 6.27 ERA in his 4 career starts versus Texas. Though most of the bad numbers were in his first career start against the Rangers it does not change the fact that Texas has a little extra confidence when facing McCullers and his winless record could be in his head a bit. I know the Astros have been hot but this is tremendous home dog value that is too strong to pass up in the case of in-state rivals that don't like each other plus Cashner has a 1.96 ERA at home this season. Look for Houston to drop to 2-6 in Saturday games this season while the Rangers improve to 18-11 at home. 10* TEXAS RANGERS money line Saturday evening |
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06-03-17 | Red Sox v. Orioles OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 30 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox @ 7:15 ET - This is a contrarian play as the total has already moved lower and many will look for an under here because David Price is on the hill for the Red Sox and because of Dylan Bundy's long-term numbers for the Orioles this season. However, Price struggled in a rehabilitation assignment before making his first start of this season and I would not be surprised to see him struggle here on the road after enjoyed success in a 5-inning stint in his first start of this season. The Orioles are very familiar with Price and are facing a southpaw starter for the 4th time in their last 8 games. The O's have won 3 straight games and averaged 6.7 runs per game but they'll be hindered by their own starter in this game. I know Baltimore's Bundy has great numbers this season but he is facing the Red Sox for the 4th time already this season. Boston is averaging 6.3 runs per game in their last 12 games and I expect this to be a breakthrough game for them today against Bundy as the more a team sees a pitcher the more it tends to help that lineup make the proper adjustment. 4 times in 2 months is a lot! This is a contrarian play all the way but I expect the BoSox to bounce back after a miserable day at the plate yesterday. 10* OVER the total in Baltimore |
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06-02-17 | Indians v. Royals OVER 9 | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Kansas City Royals vs Cleveland Indians @ 8:15 ET - I know Josh Tomlin just shut down the Royals in Cleveland and has had great success against them this season. However, they're now facing him for the 3rd time in less than 4 weeks and familiarity generally leads to success for the hitters. Tomlin had been rocked in consecutive starts before shutting down KC last week so don't be surprised if he gets roughed up here as his recent struggles resume. As for the Royals, they will have Jason Vargas on the mound and he was very fortunate that he allowed only 2 earned runs to the Indians last week as he gave up 9 hits in less than 6 innings of work. Vargas also got rocked for 6 earned runs in just 4 innings of work in his most recent home start. The Indians have averaged 5.4 runs per game in their last 11 games. The Royals have scored at least 5 runs in 4 of their last 6 games. Kansas City was off yesterday and the over is 7-2 this season when the Royals are playing with a day off between games. This is a bit of a contrarian play considering the recent success Tomlin has had against the Royals but I expect a breakout game from the lineups here on a hitter friendly night at Kaufmann Stadium. They are familiar with the pitchers they are facing in this one. Very familiar in this divisional battle. 10* OVER the total in Kansas City |
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06-02-17 | Diamondbacks v. Marlins -113 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 52 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Friday 10* Top Play Miami Marlins (-) vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 7:10 ET - The Marlins Jose Urena continues to prove to be tough to hit. He has allowed only 20 hits in his 5 starts this season and that has spanned nearly 28 innings of work. He'll be opposed by the Diamondbacks Patrick Corbin and the Arizona southpaw has proven to be very hittable. Corbin has a 7.87 ERA and 2.00 WHIP in his last 3 starts overall. Also, in his 4 road starts this season he is 0-4 with a 9.45 ERA and a 2.00 WHIP. The Marlins lost a tight one yesterday but had previously won 4 straight games and they have a pitching edge here and the Dbacks are only averaging 3.6 runs per game on the road this season. Despite the disparity in records between these teams this season, the Marlins are favored with good reason and this is the perfect spot to be a contrarian. Lay it with the home team. 10* MIAMI |
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06-01-17 | Cavs +7 v. Warriors | Top | 91-113 | Loss | -105 | 52 h 21 m | Show |
THE Game of the Year - Rickenbach NBA Thursday 10* Top Play Cleveland Cavaliers (+) @ Golden State Warriors @ 9 ET - Both teams have had a long layoff but the Warriors layoff has been particularly long heading into this one. Also, the Cavaliers have responded extremely well after a long layoff in this post-season as they blew out the Raptors and Celtics in Game 1 of each of those series. Certainly this is to take nothing away from Golden State. They definitely have proven they are more than capable of blowing teams out but even though they have revenge from last year's Finals loss to the Cavs, Cleveland comes into Game 1 very hungry here as LeBron James and Company are tired of all the talk about being such a huge dog in this match-up. That is tremendous motivation for the defending champs and, even if they do fall short in Game 1 I would expect it to only be by a bucket or two. I know the Cavaliers got the benefit of facing the Celtics with Isaiah Thomas getting hurt in the series but the Warriors faced the Spurs without Kawhi Leonard after the midway point in Game 1 AND then San Antonio ALSO lost Tony Parker to injury. San Antonio just didn't have anybody left (let's not forget Tim Duncan of course was already retired and SA just not what they once were). The point is that the Cavs faced arguably a tougher test to get here than the Warriors. For all the talk of all the weapons that Golden State has (certainly formidable) let's not forget that LeBron James has a healthier cast around him this season and they've got Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love (healthy!) for star power plus plenty of tremendous role players. They're just not even being given a shot here and remember the Spurs were up HUGE here in GS in Game 1 before Leonard got hurt. LeBron and Company are well aware of the +7 that has been assigned to them here and they'd love nothing more than to make a statement here in Game 1. The Cavaliers are going to bring a ferocious attitude to the floor for this game and I expect Game 1 goes to the wire with an outright upset not surprising me in the least. 10* CLEVELAND |
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06-01-17 | Diamondbacks v. Marlins +114 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 49 m | Show |
Early Shocker - Rickenbach MLB 10* Top Play Miami Marlins Money Line (+) vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 7:10 ET - This is a contrarian play. Everyone will likely be lining up to back Zack Greinke. However, he has allowed 4 earned runs or more in 2 of his last 3 starts. The right-hander is facing a Marlins team that has won 7 of its last 10 games and averaged 6.5 runs per game in these 10 games. As for the Diamondbacks, they've lost 3 of their last 5 games and averaged just 4 runs per game during this stretch. Also, the Dbacks have averaged just 3.7 runs per game when on the road this season. Arizona is 60-80 and -$21,200 in games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs the past 3 seasons combined. Jeff Locke gets the start for the Diamondbacks here and he is returning from tendinitis in his shoulder. Is he ready? Well, let's put it this way...he has a 1.77 ERA in his 4 rehab starts! Also, throughout his career he has fared better in home starts. In the last 3 seasons combined he is 13-8 in home appearances with his ERA no higher than 3.63 in home outings in any of those 3 seasons. I know Locke does not have a good history against the Dbacks but they've seen him just once since the 2014 season. In other words, not much of that history is relevant here. Look for Locke to come up big here and Greinke's recent struggles continue. I like riding the red hot Marlins at home. Look for them to make it 5 straight wins. 10* MIAMI |
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06-01-17 | Yankees v. Blue Jays OVER 8.5 | Top | 12-2 | Win | 100 | 4 h 17 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 runs in Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees @ 7:05 ET - The very first totals opened up at 9.5 on this game and it's now an 8.5 and I love the value we're getting here with two solid lineups. I know CC Sabathia has pitched better of late but he's faced some weak-hitting teams. He now faces a Blue Jays team that has won 8 of its last 9 games and averaged 6 runs per game in the process. Also, Sabathia faced the Blue Jays 4 weeks ago and was rocked for 6 earned runs in just 4 innings of work. I know Toronto's Marco Estrada has been pitching well but the Yankees have a .463 slugging percentage against right-handers and that ranks them as one of the top hitting teams in the majors against right-handed pitching. The Yankees have pounded out 42 hits and 23 runs in their last 4 games and Estrada has given up 4 homers in his last 3 starts versus the Yanks. Though he's pitched well overall I do look for Estrada to struggle again here. Prior to his solid start versus Texas he had allowed 5 earned runs in 2 of his last 4 outings. The over is 16-7 in Yankees divisional games this season. 10* OVER the total in New York Yankees |
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05-31-17 | Predators +135 v. Penguins | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 29 m | Show |
Game 2 Dominator - Rickenbach NHL Wednesday 10* Top Play Nashville Predators Money Line (+) @ Pittsburgh Penguins @ 8 ET - Even after having a first period goal disallowed that wiped a 1-0 lead off of the board, the Predators showed a lot in their Game 1 loss at Pittsburgh. For one thing Nashville showed resilience in batting back from a 3-goal deficit to tie it at 3. For another thing the Preds did outshoot the Pens by a 26-12 count for the game. The Predators will respond after allowing 5 goals in Game 1 (including the late empty-netter). Nashville has won 14 of 22 when they are off of a loss by a multiple-goal margin and goalie Pekka Rinne will bounce back. He had been 12-4 in the playoffs and seemingly stopping everything in sight before some tough bounces went against him in Game 1. Rinne certainly wasn't on top of his game Monday but he's a strong goalie and will bounce back here. As for Penguins goalie Matt Murray, he wasn't exactly flawless in Game 1 either plus the Penguins have now allowed power play goals on 3 of their opponents last 8 chances. I love the underdog value here as the Preds found some things in Game 1 to build on and certainly the Predators ability to limit Penguins scoring chances was huge. Look for the Preds to even this one up in what should be a fantastic series. Keep in mind the Penguins were only 6-6 in their last 12 games prior to the win Monday. Also, the Predators haven't lost two straight games since early April! 10* NASHVILLE |
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05-31-17 | Red Sox v. White Sox OVER 9.5 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Chicago White Sox vs Boston Red Sox @ 8:10 ET - With yesterday's 13-7 win, Boston is now 7-2 in their last 9 games and they've averaged 7.1 runs per game during this hot streak. The Red Sox will have Drew Pomeranz on the mound for this one. The southpaw is facing a team that hits lefties very well and will be facing a left-handed pitcher for the 3rd straight day. The White Sox have a .462 slugging percentage against lefties this season and that ranks #1 out of all 30 MLB teams. Also, with scoring 7 runs yesterday, they ChiSox have averaged 6.2 runs per game their last 11 games. You've got two lineups here that have plenty of confidence and, in addition to Pomeranz getting rocked, look for Mike Pelfrey to also struggle. I know that Pelfrey has pitched surprisingly well in his last two starts but, prior to that, he had a 5.70 ERA with more walks than strikeouts in his first 5 starts this season. Let's not forget that Pelfrey got hit at a .332 clip last season and has not finshed an MLB season with an opponents batting average of less than .300 since the 2011 season! Now he faces a strong Boston lineup that got to him for 5 earned runs in 5 innings in his only start against them last season. The most recent start for Pomeranz stayed under the total but, prior to that, the over was 3-0 in his last 3 starts. As for Pelfrey, I look for this start to move the over to 3-0 in his last 3 outings. 10* OVER the total in the Chicago White Sox game |
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05-31-17 | A's +137 v. Indians | Top | 3-1 | Win | 137 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
Early Shocker - Rickenbach MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play Oakland A's Money Line (+) @ Cleveland Indians @ 6:10 ET - Mike Clevinger gets the start for the Indians and he has struggled in both of his home starts this season. In his first one he walked 5 in less than 5 innings of work. In his second one he gave up 4 earned runs on 8 hits in only 5 innings of work. I know the A's have been slumping a bit over the past week but facing Clevinger will turn them around and they have a big pitching edge with Sean Manaea on the mound. The Oakland left-hander gave up just 1 earned run only 3 hits in 7 innings of work when he faced the Tribe last season. Also, Manaea comes into this start off of a fantastic outing against the Yankees in the Bronx. Manaea has allowed only 6 hits in the 12 innings spanning his last two road starts. The Athletics have won each of his last two starts while the Indians have lost two of three with Clevinger on the mound. Even with yesterday's win, Cleveland is just 27-43 (and -$28,600) in games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs the past 3 seasons combined. The A's struck out far too many times in yesterday's game but Clevinger's stuff has not been that dominant and Oakland was only outhit 11-10 in the defeat last night. Look for them to get over the hump with the big pitching edge being the key in this road win Wednesday. 10* OAKLAND |
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05-30-17 | Astros v. Twins OVER 9 | Top | 7-2 | Push | 0 | 14 h 49 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Twins vs Houston Astros @ 8:10 ET - The Twins Jose Berrios has been fantastic but he did allow 3 homers in his recent start and the wind will be blowing out toward right field in tonight's game. That certainly could be an issue for the Astros starter tonight. Michael Fiers has given up 18 homers in his 9 starts this season and, in fact, had been relegated to the bullpen recently. However, he immediately is right back in the rotation because Charlie Morton went on the 10-day disabled list. Yesterday's game got completely nuts and I expect this could turn into another wild one. Fiers has just been a mess this season for the Astros and he has a 6.37 ERA on the road this season with only 1 of those 5 starts resulting in an under. Although Berrios has pitched surprisingly well, the Astros have reached double digits in hits in 4 straight games now. The Twins 15 inning marathon loss Sunday used up the bullpen and then they got exposed yesterday as they allowed 14 runs in the final 2 innings of Monday's loss. Berrios has been getting a lot of strikeouts but that also means the pitch counts go up and the Twins pen could be exposed again tonight. The over is 23-9 in the last 2+ seasons in Astros road games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. Also, the over is 37-22 in the last 2+ seasons in Twins home games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. 10* OVER the total in Minnesota |
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05-30-17 | Mariners +130 v. Rockies | Top | 10-4 | Win | 130 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play Seattle Mariners Money Line (+) @ Colorado Rockies @ 7:10 ET - The Mariners Ariel Miranda has given up just 2 earned runs or less in 5 of his last 6 starts. The Seattle southpaw has a 2.12 ERA in his last 3 starts and has struck out 21 in the 17 innings spanning those 3 outings. The Mariners are 4-2 in his 6 road starts this season. The Rockies will have Tyler Anderson on the mound and the southpaw has been solid in his recent starts but has a 5.24 ERA at home this season. Even though Miranda has a big road ERA, that was greatly impacted by just 1 ugly start at Philadelphia earlier this month. Overall, he's been solid on the road and, though the Rockies have been better against lefties than the Mariners have this season, there is another key factor here that favors Seattle in a big way. The M's will be facing a left-handed starter for the 6th time in their last 11 games. As for Colorado, their last 14 games have ALL come against right-handed starters! This is the first time in over 2 WEEKS that the Rockies are matched up against a southpaw starter. Yesterday's loss dropped Colorado to 16-28 in inter-league games the past 2+ seasons. The Mariners are 5 games over .500 in inter-league games since the start of the 2015 season and the M's are already 6-3 this season in inter-league action! Look for another win (at a nice underdog price) again on Monday. 10* SEATTLE |
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05-29-17 | Predators v. Penguins OVER 5.5 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 127 | 32 h 46 m | Show |
Total of the Year - Rickenbach NHL Monday 10* Top Play OVER 5.5 goals +125 in Pittsburgh Penguins vs Nashville Predators @ 8 ET - How will these teams react after the layoff that preceded the Stanley Cup Finals getting underway? The Predators have played 9 games this season after a layoff of 3 days or more. The results? Only 2 unders in those 9 games! As for the Penguins, they've played 8 games this season after a layoff of 3 days or more. Pittsburgh has gone 7-1 in those 8 games! Not only are there trends to support this play though. The fact is that the old adage of 'speed kills' applies to both of these teams. They are each so dangerous with their skilled forwards and I expect this to be a highly entertaining series. Of course the Preds loss of Ryan Johansen was a big one but just look at how they've responded! The Predators wrapped up the Western Conference Finals by scoring 6 goals in their series clinching victory over Anaheim. The Predators are 19-10 to the over this season (and 46-26 to the over the past 3 seasons) when they are off of a game where they scored 4 goals or more. Each of the last 3 games between these teams has gone over the total and if the odds makers were expecting a solid under here, they would have posted a total of 5 goals. Why the 5.5 on this one? It's because the odds makers expect the same thing I do. After the layoff, neither team will be completely crisp in their own end, neither goalie will be as razor sharp as they might usually be, and with all the speed on the ice there will be some excellent scoring chances for both clubs in this one. These teams have combined for an average of nearly 70 shots on goal per game in their last 3 meetings. Look for a wild opener to the Stanley Cup Finals and I am more than happy to take advantage of the big plus money being offered on the over in this one. 10* OVER 5.5 goals +125 in Pittsburgh |
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05-29-17 | Tigers +101 v. Royals | Top | 10-7 | Win | 101 | 19 h 13 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Monday 10* Top Play Detroit Tigers Money Line (+) @ Kansas City Royals @ 7:15 ET - I successfully used Daniel Norris and the Tigers when they got a big upset road win at Houston in his most recent start and I certainly like him even more in this spot as he's matched up with a Kansas City team that, unlike the Astros, has struggled this season. Also, this appears to be a pitching match-up with Jason Hammel on the mound for the Royals. Hammel is 1-6 with a 5.98 ERA this season and it is not fluke as he has been getting hit at a .313 clip and not keeping the ball down in the zone (way too many outs through the air). Though Detroit's Norris doesn't have ultra impressive overall numbers on the year he does have a solid 3.62 ERA in his 5 road starts this season. Also, he's allowed 2 earned runs or less in 3 of his 5 start this month! Norris also has a 3.47 ERA in his starts against the Royals in his career. Conversely, the Royals Hammel has an 8.53 ERA in his career starts against the Tigers and they've hammered him for 3 homers in EACH of his last two starts versus Detroit. The Royals are an ugly 6-15 in divisional games this season and have gone just 4-9 in their 13 games against teams with a losing record this season. I am looking for the Tigers to improve to 3-0 in Norris' divisional starts this season. I know the Tigers don't have a great record but the Royals have struggled this season too and we've got a huge pitching edge here and the Tigers are averaging 4.7 runs per game against righty starters while the Royals are averaging just 3.1 runs per game against lefty starters. 10* DETROIT |
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05-29-17 | Mariners v. Rockies OVER 11 | Top | 6-5 | Push | 0 | 15 h 12 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Seattle Mariners @ 3:10 ET - The Rockies have been heating up at the plate. With yesterday's 8-4 win over the Cardinals, Colorado has now scored an average of 6.8 runs per game during their current 7-3 hot streak their last 10 games. Monday the Rockies take on the Mariners and Seattle got back on track with a 5-0 win at Boston yesterday. The M's have been struggling at the plate recently but a big win like that as well as now a day game at hitter-friendly Coors Field is the kind of sequence that can rejuvenate a dangerous lineup. The Mariners do indeed have solid hitters up and down their lineup and they should have no problems with the offerings of Tyler Chatwood. The Rockies right-hander has a 6.18 ERA at home this season. He also had a 6.12 ERA at home last season. It's one of the drawbacks of being a Rockies pitcher. Chatwood has seen first hand how this home park can be so tough on a pitcher and he has a huge road/home dichotomy as he has been tremendous away from home but struggled mightily at Coors Field. I don't expect the Mariners Sam Gaviglio to find Coors Field to his liking either. He's making just the 3rd start of his MLB career and in the rookie's first two starts he has a total of just 3 strikeouts. Remember, contact at Coors Field is not a good thing so if he can't mow hitters down here it's likely to be a long afternoon for him. The over is on a 29-17 run in Mariners inter-league games the past 3 seasons and I look for a slugfest in this one. 10* OVER the total in Colorado |
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05-28-17 | Cardinals v. Rockies -110 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 14 h 29 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Sunday 10*Top Play Money Line Colorado Rockies (-) vs St Louis Cardinals @ 3:10 ET – With the 10-0 win that the Rockies got in the series opener Friday, Colorado entered Saturday’s action having won 9 of their last 12 games. As for the Cardinals, that ugly defeat brought St Louis to a poor 2-7 in their last 9 games. Based on this pitching match-up for Sunday, I expect the Rockies to remain the hotter team and the Cardinals struggles to continue. Colorado will have German Marquez on the mound for this one and he has been in top current form as he has allowed 1 earned run or less in 4 of his last 5 starts. Also, though this is just his 2nd season in the majors and he has not seen a ton of action, Marquez has pitching surprisingly well at hitter-friendly Coors Field. Marquez has given up just 29 hits in his 30 innings at Coors Field. Those are very impressive numbers for this ballpark that is so tough on pitchers. Marquez also has been fantastic in day games in his career thus far. The Rockies right-hander has an ultra-impressive 1.20 ERA in his 5 career day starts and has averaged 6 innings in those 5 outings. He was strong in his only career start against the Cardinals while the Cards Lance Lynn did struggle the last time he faced the Rockies. I know Lynn has been impressive at times this season but, before shutting down the Dodgers at pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium in LA, he allowed 7 homers in his first four road outings of this season! Now he faces the Rockies in a hitter-friendly venue and Lynn’s toughest starts this season have come away from home. Also, I expect Lynn to struggle after throwing 123 pitches against Los Angeles on Tuesday. Don’t be surprised if he shows fatigue earlier than you would expect in this one. 10* Colorado Rockies on the Money Line |
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05-28-17 | Rays v. Twins OVER 9 | Top | 8-6 | Win | 100 | 14 h 32 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach MLB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Twins vs Tampa Bay Rays @ 2:10 ET – The Rays Alex Cobb has not been the same pitcher since Tommy John surgery. He’s been inconsistent and about every other outing has been a rough outing for Cobb since he returned to the majors. Why expect a “rough one” here? Well one thing that is consistent about Cobb is that he has had a tendency throughout his entire career to struggle more on the road than at home. Also, since the Tommy John surgery, Cobb has seemed particularly vulnerable to left-handed batters and the Twins lineup will be loaded with left-handed bats and switch-hitters for this one. Also, the wind will be blowing out to center at a good clip on a mild afternoon in Minneapolis Sunday. In other words, all the proper variables are in place for Cobb to get rocked here. He is getting hit at a .271 clip in day games this season and has a 6.04 ERA against left-handed batters on the season. The Twins will have Kyle Gibson on the mound here and he was rocked for 6 runs in just 5 innings in his first start back after being recalled from the minors. In other words, his struggles continued even after being sent down to the minors! Simply put, Gibson just can’t “get right” this season and he has an 8.62 ERA in his 7 starts at the MLB level. Also, Tampa Bay has plenty of hitters who have enjoyed success against Gibson and, the way he’s throwing right now, he’s particularly vulnerable. The over is a perfect 4-0 in Gibson’s last 4 starts. The last 3 seasons combined the over is 35-21 in Twins home games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. As for the Rays, they entered Saturday’s action having gone 17-8 to the over in their games against teams with a winning record this season. Look for more of the same on Sunday. 10* OVER the total in Minnesota |
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05-27-17 | Mets v. Pirates OVER 8 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 105 | 20 h 46 m | Show |
Total Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Mets @ 7:15 ET - Yesterday's game went over the total and the over is now an incredible 30-10 in Mets games this season. New York's games just keep finding their way over the total and yesterday's got there despite Pittsburgh scoring only 1 run in that game. Look for the Pirates lineup to get right back on track as they had scored 26 runs on 42 hits in their 3 prior games. The over is an insane 25-5 in Mets night games this season and 18-3 in their games against teams with a losing record. As for the Pirates, the over is 10-4 in their home games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs so far this season. Though this pitching match-up may not seem conducive to an over, note that the Mets Zack Wheeler has not pitched in a week and he was already having issues with command of his pitches. He had walked 4 or more in 2 of his last 3 starts. The extra time off won't help here. I know he had asked the team for an extra day but then it turned into 2 extra days off and I would not be surprised to see him struggle here. As for the Pirates Gerrit Cole, I know he has great overall numbers but he got rocked by the Braves in his most recent start and now faces a Mets team that has scored 60 runs in their last 11 games! Overall, on the season the Mets are averaging 6.2 runs per contest in their road games. Also, the Mets bullpen has been horrible on the road this season. They entered Friday's action having a 7.17 ERA away from home so far this year. Wheeler has made 8 starts this season and he has not had a single one of those 8 result in an under! Look for the strong high-scoring trend in Mets games to continue here. 10* OVER the total in Pittsburgh |
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05-26-17 | Rays v. Twins +122 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 1 m | Show |
Contrarian Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Friday 10* Top Play Minnesota Twins Money Line (+) vs Tampa Bay Rays @ 8:10 ET - Chris Archer is the big name pitcher in this match-up and that's why the Rays are favored on the road. However, Archer has given up 9 earned runs in just 11 and 1/3 innings spanning his last two starts. Also, on the road this season, the Rays right-hander has gone only 1-2 with a 4.74 ERA in his 4 starts away from home. Another issue for him Friday could be run support because the Rays are only 5-10 against southpaw pitchers this season and have been quite anemic at the plate against lefties. The Twins will have left-hander Hector Santiago on the mound and he is 3-0 in home starts this season with a solid 3.07 ERA in his 5 starts in Minnesota. Tampa Bay's .217 batting average versus southpaws ranks among the worst in the league. Also, the Rays 515 strikeouts this season is far and away the worst in the majors and Santiago did strike out 9 in 7 scoreless innings versus Tampa Bay last season and that game was at Tropicana Field. Santiago is known to be even tougher when he is at home. The Rays did get the win at home yesterday but they do struggle against lefties and have lost 12 of 21 road games this season. The Twins have won 6 of their last 7 games overall and are also 16-5 in night games this season. Also, Minnesota's .441 slugging percentage against right-handers this season does rank them in the top third of the majors! Archer has gotten a lot of strikeouts recently but he's still given up plenty of big hits too and the Twins are hot again and on their home field. That means we're being given great home dog value here. 10* Minnesota Twins money line |
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05-26-17 | Angels v. Marlins OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 23 h 11 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Miami Marlins vs Los Angeles Angels @ 7:10 ET - I am well aware of the fact that Daniel Straily has put together some impressive numbers this season. However, he has been rocked in each of his last two starts against the Angels and that includes a recent one, last August, where he gave up 4 homers in less than 3 innings of work. After getting shutout yesterday at Tampa Bay, I look for the Halos sticks to get back on track Friday. The last time they got shutout (May 20th) their next game flew over the total with 12 runs scored. Having had success against Straily, the Angels step into the batters box with plenty of confidence in this one. Certainly the Marlins sticks should have no trouble with the offerings of Jesse Chavez in this one. The Angels right-hander has an 8.18 ERA in his two career starts at Miami and he was rocked in both outings. Chavez also comes into this start in questionable form as he's allowed 4 homers and 7 earned runs in his last 2 road starts spanning just 11 and 1/3 innings! The Marlins were off yesterday and they are 4-0-1 to the over this season the 5 times they were coming off of a day off. Also, the over is 8-3 this season in Miami's home games where they are price in a range of -125 to +125 and the over is 22-8 this season in Marlins night games! The Marlins most recent game (Wednesday) stayed under the total but that was their first under in a week. Look for that recent hot "over trend" to resume Friday evening. 10* OVER the total in Miami |
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05-25-17 | Cavs v. Celtics +11 | Top | 135-102 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Thursday 10* Top Play Boston Celtics (+) vs Cleveland Cavaliers @ 8:30 ET - I know Kyrie Irving is going to play and his ankle is not "that" big of a deal. However, there is no denying that if the Cavaliers are fortunate enough to have a big lead late in this game they have to start thinking about the Warriors and making sure nobody gets hurt or, in the case of Irving, injures something further. With that said, this is a lot of points for Cavs on the road and I see this game being decided by single digits. Keep in mind, Boston was thoroughly embarrassed on their home floor in this series and, that said, even if they are unable to extend the series by getting an upset win at home tonight, they damn sure want to at least put on a respectable showing for their home fans. Without Isaiah Thomas, the Celtics have looked like a different team and Cleveland even admitted they are still having trouble adjusting to the way Boston is playing sans Thomas. Of course the Cavs don't have to even admit that as it has truly been apparent. The Celtics rallied for the big upset win on the road in Game 3 and for much of Game 4 (even into the 4th quarter) appeared to have a great shot at another upset Tuesday. The fact is that everyone (including bettors) are anxious for the NBA Finals between Cleveland and Golden State to start and many are looking for a close-out game here for the Cavs. That is reflected in this line going from an 8.5 to as high as an 11 and while the Cavaliers may indeed get the close-out win here, I just don't see it coming at a big margin. These series has looked much different since Brad Stevens (a good coach) has made some key adjustments to make things much more competitive after abhorrent performances early in this series in Boston. The Celtics are 11-5 ATS (and SU) this season when off of a loss by 10 points or more and the Game 4 final score does not properly reflect how close that game was. The result is tremendous line value here and, as a result, I am going with my highest rating in this one! 10* BOSTON |
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05-25-17 | Senators v. Penguins OVER 5 | Top | 2-3 | Push | 0 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach NHL Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Pittsburgh Penguins vs Ottawa Senators @ 8 ET - The Penguins only scored 1 goal Tuesday but they did register 46 shots on goal! In other words, it certainly wasn't for lack of effort and the key here is that the Senators had allowed 10 goals to the Pens in the prior two games. That included the ugly Game 5 loss in Pittsburgh when the Penguins chased Sens goalie Craig Anderson with 4 goals on their first 14 shots. That said, don't be surprised if another strong effort in terms of shots on goal Thursday leads to quite a few more goals than the 1 goal scored in Game 6. Give Anderson credit for stealing a game for the Senators in Ottawa Tuesday but he's facing a helluva challenge on the road in Game 7. As for Penguins goalie Matt Murray, he has done a great job since coming in for Marc-Andre Fleury. However, we just need 2 goals from each club to guarantee no less than a 3-2 final here. Of course I am expecting 6 goals or more or wouldn't be going with a top play here. But the point is, will we get at least 2 from the Sens? They've scored at least 2 goals in 6 of their last 8 games and that includes 2 of their last 3 when Murray has been between the pipes for the Pens. When tied in a playoff series this spring, Ottawa has gone 4-0 to the over. The over is 10-5 this season in Penguins games when they are off of a game where they were held to 1 goal or less. Look for an offensive explosion here which will surprise many being that this is a Game 7. However, the odds makers won't be surprised. They opened this one up with the over 5 goals at -135 and the price is now as low as -110. I'll gladly fade the market movement and side with the odds makers on this one! 10* OVER the total in Pittsburgh |
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05-25-17 | Diamondbacks v. Brewers OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
Total Smash - Rickenbach MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Milwaukee Brewers vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 8:10 ET - The home runs continue to fly at Miller Park and yesterday's over was the 8th in the Brewers last 11 games (both home and away). Overall, Milwaukee continues to be an "over team" and that shouldn't change today with Zach Davies on the mound. The right-hander has seen all 5 of his home starts result in overs this season and he has a compiled a 6.93 ERA and 1.91 WHIP in those outings! The Diamondbacks come into this game having scored an average of 6 runs per game during their red hot 8-1 run their last 9 games. Arizona won't slow down here as they take advantage of a pitcher (Davies) whom has given up 37 hits in less than 25 innings of work at home on the season. As for the Brewers sticks, I look for them to get to Robbie Ray early and often in this one. The Dbacks southpaw piled up strikeouts (but also gave up 5 earned runs in less than 6 innings of work) in his lone career appearance at Miller Park and that was just last season. Ray is coming off of a strong start but previously allowed 9 earned runs in 9 innings spanning his last 2 starts as both walks and home runs were an issue for him. The over is a perfect 3-0 in his last 3 starts and the Diamondbacks, overall, are 23-13 to the over the last 3 seasons combined when they enter a game on a winning streak of 3 games or more. The Brewers are 18-7 to the over in home games this season and also 7-3 to the over in their games against left-handed starters. 10* OVER the total in Milwaukee |
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05-25-17 | Giants v. Cubs -106 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 38 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Thursday 10* Top Play Chicago Cubs Money Line (-) vs San Francisco Giants @ 2:20 ET - The very first money lines that popped up on this game (when the limits were small) had the Cubs as a -150 favorite. It quickly dropped down into a pick'em price range. I understand that people are excited about Jeff Samadzija for the Giants here because he's been piling up strikeouts of late. However, before shutting out the Cardinals in his most recent start, Samardzija had been rocked for 9 earned runs on 19 hits in 13 and 2/3 innings spanning his two prior starts. In other words, just because you're piling up strikeouts doesn't mean that you're not having some problems when you don't locate your pitches so well and there is some solid contact for the hitters! That said, I am happy to grab the Cubs and fade a Giants team that is now 9-18 on the road this season after losing again last night. Keep in mind, yesterday's game had a tight finish but San Francisco had managed only 5 hits through the first 7 innings. The Cubs are starting Eddie Butler here and that was another reason for every one to jump on San Fran in this one. Butler did have control issues in his most recent start but this followed a fantastic outing in his prior start. I know his career numbers are ugly but a lot of that had to do with pitching at Coors Field as all prior year numbers were compiled as a member of the Rockies. Butler is actually 3-0 with a 3.22 ERA in his career starts against SF. Also, he had a great spring training and seems rejuvenated with the change of venue from Colorado to Chicago. Look for this start to be much like his first with the Cubs (a 6-inning shutout of the Cardinals) as he takes advantage of favorable pitching weather here. Unlike the mile high air of Denver, cool conditions with the wind blowing in from left field should help Butler to a strong start here at Wrigley Field as he makes up for his first start here being a frustrating one with all the walks. The Cubs are 126-72 at home the past 2+ seasons and the price here is offering great line value as the Giants road struggles continue. 10* CHICAGO CUBS |
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05-24-17 | Tigers +163 v. Astros | Top | 6-3 | Win | 163 | 8 h 4 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play Detroit Tigers Money Line (+) @ Houston Astros @ 8:10 ET - The Tigers Daniel Norris doesn't have impressive numbers on the season but he is a very capable hurler and just has made a few "mistake pitches" in recent starts. He has struck out 16 in his last 16 innings and averages about 1 strikeout per inning on the season. Norris has an added edge here in that the Astros have never faced him and, also, Houston hasn't faced a left-handed starter in nearly 2 full weeks! Don't be surprised if the Astros struggle at the plate in this one. Speaking of struggling at the plate, Detroit has certainly had issues so far in this series but Charlie Morton should bring out the best in them. The veteran right-hander gets the call for Houston today and he gave up 3 homers in just 5 and a third innings versus the Indians in his most recent start. Overall, Morton has had some issues with too many walks in recent outings as well. Before losing 3 straight games and struggling at the plate, the Tigers had averaged 6.8 runs per game in their 5 prior games. After facing some tough hurlers and struggling, the Tigers will break out the big lumber today against Morton. He's just not of the same caliber of whom they had been facing. The result here is tremendous underdog line value. The Astros are 10-13 (down $7,500!) in home games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs the past 3 seasons combined. Also, the Tigers are 26-22 (+$7,000!) the past 3 seasons combined when they are entering a game on a losing streak of 3 games or more. Those records may not seem 'that' impressive but, remember, we're getting SIGNIFICANT plus money odds here and I like Norris over Morton in a BIG way in this one. 10* DETROIT |
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05-24-17 | Royals v. Yankees OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Kansas City Royals @ 7:05 ET - Not a lot of hitting in the first two games of this series but that changes today in the 3rd game of this 4-day set. The Royals will have Jason Hammel on the mound. He has given up 12 runs (11 earned) on 22 hits (including 4 homers) in his last 2 starts spanning 13 innings. The most recent of those two outings was against the Yankees so that means another bad start is likely here as the Yanks get a quick 2nd look at Hammel. The Royals right-hander has a 7.20 ERA with a horrible 2.07 WHIP in his 3 road starts this season. The Yankees will have Luis Severino on the mound for this one and he has struggled in his last two outings. The right-hander has solid numbers on the season but he's fading recently. Severino has given up 11 hits and 6 walks in the 7 and a third innings spanning his last two starts. Another note here is that if Hammel gets knocked out early, the Royals bullpen has a 6.12 ERA on the road this season. The over is 3-1 in Royals road games where their money line is in a range of +175 to +250. The over is a perfect 4-0 in the Yankees last 4 games that Severino has started. Also, the over is 16-8 this season in Yankees games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. When off of a loss this season, the over has gone 11-6 in Yanks game. 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Yankees |
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05-23-17 | Celtics +15.5 v. Cavs | Top | 99-112 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
TNT Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Tuesday 10* Top Play Boston Celtics (+) @ Cleveland Cavaliers @ 8:30 ET - Boston made significant adjustments in Game 3 and guys stepped up with Isaiah Thomas out. The Celtics not only covered that game but also got the huge upset win. Now most everyone will be running to the Cavaliers here expecting LeBron James and company to respond in a huge way here. However, while Cleveland is certainly likely to respond and get a W here are they really going to win this one in complete blowout fashion? To me this line is far too high when you consider that Boston has their sights set on making a series out of this. Keep in mind, they're already guaranteed of getting a Game 5 on their game floor so they know they can still battle and make something out of this series. Also, once the mighty has fallen once it can cast a little bit of doubt upon a team. In other words, the Cavs don't have the same "unbeatable" aura flowing around them the way they did before getting upset in Game 3 Sunday. In terms of ATS stats, since the All Star break, the Cavs only once have had a single ATS standalone loss. In other words, when they are off of a defeat at the betting window, it almost always has started a streak of ATS losses and I expect that to be the case here as well. The Cavs were on a 6-0-2 ATS run before Sunday's loss but prior to this ATS hot streak, the Cavaliers were on a long-term 9-18-1 ATS run. Could this be the start of their next big decline at the betting window. I certainly am glad to test that theory with the big points being offered here. The Celtics are on a long-term 16-6 ATS run as a road dog of 12.5 or more points. Cleveland is on a 15-25 ATS run when playing with home loss revenge. 10* BOSTON plus the big points Tuesday evening |
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05-23-17 | Penguins v. Senators +137 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 137 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
Game of the Year - Rickenbach NHL Tuesday 10* Top Play Ottawa Senators Money Line (+) vs Pittsburgh Penguins @ 8 ET - After getting embarrassed 7-0 on Sunday, look for Ottawa to bounce back strong here. They are happy to return to home ice but did lose here in Game 4 as well so this Senators team has blown a 2-1 series lead and is now facing playoff elimination. Look for this to bring out the best in a Sens team that has been resilient throughout this post-season. The Senators, in the past 7 weeks, have never lost 3 straight games and I don't expect that to change here. Though their power play has struggled since a good stretch early in the post-season, the Senators have been excellent in 5 on 5 hockey, Sunday's result notwithstanding. The Sens, the past 3 seasons combined, are 38-24 (+19,000) when off of a loss by a margin of 2 goals or more. Look for the Senators to get back to playing the style that delivered so much success for them earlier in this series. They need to clog up the neutral zone and prevent the Penguins from getting so much open ice as they enter the zone. The Senators did hold the Pens to just a single goal in each of the first 3 games in this series. In fact, dating back to the regular season, it was 5 straight games for Ottawa holding Pittsburgh to just a single goal before the Pens hung on for a 3-2 win in Game 4 and then got the blowout win in Game 5. After that ugly loss for the Sens in Game 5, it is payback time tonight for the Senators. 10* OTTAWA on the money line Tuesday evening |
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05-23-17 | Rangers v. Red Sox OVER 9 | Top | 6-11 | Win | 105 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Texas Rangers @ 7:10 ET - This total has dropped from an opener of 9.5 to a 9 and could even be headed toward 8.5 in some shops. Either way, this is opening up great line value on the over. I am well aware of Rick Porcello's long-term success at Fenway Park. However, the Rangers are 11-1 in their last 12 games and have averaged scoring 6 runs per game in these dozen games. Also, Porcello has allowed 9 runs (7 earned) on 18 hits in just 12 innings of work spanning his last 3 starts. Also the last two times Porcello has faced the Rangers as a host (including last season at Fenway Park) he has been rocked for a combined 12 runs (11 earned) on 24 hits in just 11 and 1/3 innings of work! Porcello is likely to need plenty of run support from his offense today and he is likely to get it! Texas is starting Andrew Cashner and he is off of back to back strong starts but those were at home and against two teams that are struggling to score runs this season - Oakland and Philadelphia. Now he's on the road where he has had some issues with command of his pitches and Cashner is facing a Red Sox team that will build off of a huge 12-run outburst that wrapped up their road trip Sunday. The Rangers are 5-1 to the over in their last 6 games against right-handed starters. The Red Sox are on an overall 12-2 run to the over in their last 14 games. Texas is 7-3 to the over this season in their games against teams with a winning record and the Red Sox are on a 7-0 run to the over when they're off of a win! 10* OVER the total in Boston early Tuesday evening |
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05-22-17 | Warriors v. Spurs UNDER 217 | Top | 129-115 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 35 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Monday 10* Top Play UNDER the total in San Antonio Spurs vs Golden State Warriors @ 9 ET - The Spurs were able to run with the Warriors for awhile in Game 3 Saturday and even were within 4 points in the 3rd quarter. However, San Antonio is just not healthy and the Spurs quickly found out that, no matter who is on the floor, it is simply a mistake to try and "run and gun" with the Warriors. It's just not going to work! Golden State is the much healthier team and has far too many weapons. With that said, the Spurs still are not going to go down without a fight, at least not on their home floor. That is why I see Game 4 staying under the total. I know all 3 of the games so far have gone over the total in this series (and overs have dominated overall in recent NBA playoff action) but the fact is that the Spurs must slow things down some tonight. Couple that with the fact that the numbers on totals are continuing to become more and more inflated and you certainly have some line value here. The under is 29-17 in Golden State's road games this season and the under is 31-20 when the Warriors are off of a game in which they scored 115 points or more. The Spurs, the last 3 seasons combined, have gone 43-29 to the under in their games against teams that average 106 points or more per game. That's because SA knows how to slow things down and turn up the heat on defense and that is truly their only hope here in a "win or go fishing" Game 4 that could ultimately define their finish to the season. The Spurs go hard here but it will be defense that they'll have to lean on and that's why my only play tonight is on the total. 10* UNDER the total in San Antonio |
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05-22-17 | Ducks v. Predators OVER 5 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach NHL Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Nashville Predators vs Anaheim Ducks @ 8 ET - Ducks goalie John Gibson, if he plays, is not 100% as he's dealing with a lower body injury. Back-up netminder Jonathan Bernier is simply not at the same level as Gibson if he would end up getting the call here. No matter who is in net for Anaheim here, they are going to face a barrage of shots in this one because Nashville wants revenge for the Game 4 loss here and they certainly want to avoid a trip back to Anaheim for a Game 7. With that said, in a raucous arena on Monday night, you're going to see a little bit more of a "wide open" style played here. The Predators don't want to get cautious and hurt themselves by trying to play it "safe" at home. As for the Ducks, for them to spring the upset here, they know they're going to have to score plenty giving their current uncertain goalie situation. The Ducks have averaged 3.3 goals per game in their 7 road games in this post-season. Similar to how the Predators stepped up without Johansen and Fisher in Game 5 on the road, look for the Ducks to step it up without Rakell and Eaves in Game 6 away from home. The Preds loss on home ice in Game 4 was their first home defeat of the post-season. They're averaging just under 3 goals per game in their last 14 games overall and just under 3 goals per game in their 7 home post-season games. The Ducks will make some adjustments based on how the Predators really clogged up the neutral zone and denied entry for Anaheim as Game 5 went on. The result will be some more "risk-taking" from the Ducks here in a win or go home game. I look for this one to get surprisingly high scoring like the 5-3 game we saw back in game 2. The over is 3-1 in this post-season and 20-13 long-term when Anaheim is trailing in a playoff series. The Preds have a long-term run going of 69-48 to the over when facing a team with a winning record. Both teams are going to push hard for plenty of offensive zone pressure in the first possible elimination game of this series. The Preds want to push hard for early scoring and really get their home crowd behind them but Ducks won't stay grounded here either either. They'll be flying all over the ice and this one should fly over the total as a result. 10* OVER the total in Nashville |
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05-22-17 | Twins v. Orioles OVER 9.5 | Top | 14-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Baltimore Orioles vs Minnesota Twins @ 7:05 ET - The Orioles game stayed under the total yesterday but 4 of their 6 prior games had gone over the total and Baltimore averaged 7 runs per game during that stretch. Look for the hot hitting to resume today after the O's were held to just 1 run yesterday. Facing the Twins Kyle Gibson should help tremendously in that regard. Gibson is winless on the season and has an 8.20 ERA and 1.94 WHIP as a starter on the year. Each of his last three starts have gone over the total. The Twins should also enjoy plenty of success at the plate tonight as they will be able to "tee off" against a struggling hurler too. Ubaldo Jimenez gets the start for the Orioles and each of his 3 home starts this season have gone over the total. Overall, in his 3 most recent starts, Jimenez has given up 2 homers in all 3 starts while compiling an 8.44 ERA in these outings. The Twins played a double header yesterday and both games went over the total. The over is now 10-6 in Minnesota's games this month and the over in May Twins games is now 43-24 the last 2+ years. Look for the over to improve to 4-0 in Gibson's last 4 starts and 4-0 this season in Jimenez home starts. 10* OVER the total in Baltimore |
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05-21-17 | Celtics v. Cavs OVER 213.5 | Top | 111-108 | Win | 100 | 14 h 8 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach Sunday NBA 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cleveland Cavaliers vs Boston Celtics @ 8:30 ET - This total took a big drop because of Isaiah Thomas now being out. I'll step in and take advantage as it is highly unlikely that the Celtics have another horrific shooting effort as they shot just 37.2% from the field in Game 2. Of course the Cavaliers have been putting up insane numbers and while they are highly unlikely to score 130 again (Cavs won Game 2 by a 130-86 final) I truly don't expect them to slow down much considering they're fired up to be playing on their home floor for the first time in 2 and 1/2 weeks! By the way, the over is a perfect 5-0 this season when Cleveland is off of a game where they scored 130 points or more. As for Boston, the over is a long-term 5-2 when they are off of a game where they allowed 130 points or more. As a road dog of 12.5 points or more, the Celtics have gone 15-7 to the over long-term. The Cavaliers are an incredible 49-26 to the over this season when they are a favorite. Take advantage of the lower total here as the O/U move has helped add great value here. Others will fill in as Thomas now sits out. 10* OVER the total in Cleveland |
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05-21-17 | Rangers -120 v. Tigers | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach Sunday MLB 10* Top Play Texas Rangers Money Line (-) @ Detroit Tigers @ 8:05 ET - The Rangers had won 10 in a row before getting hammered yesterday and I expect Texas to bounce right back here. Not only did the Rangers win those 10 games by an average margin of 3.7 runs per game, they also have a huge pitching edge on the mound in this game. Yu Darvish gets the start for Texas and the right-hander has a 2.61 ERA and 1.09 WHIP on the season. The Tigers have left-hander Matthew Boyd on the mound and he has a 7.31 ERA and 1.81 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Also, Darvish is 6-0 with a 3.46 ERA against the Tigers in his career while Boyd is 1-3 with a 5.24 ERA in his career against the Rangers. Those numbers for Boyd are even after he pitched a strong game versus Texas last season. In other words, his other recent outings versus the Rangers have been ugly! The Rangers have won 5 straight Darvish starts while the Tigers have lost 4 straight Boyd starts. This one has the makings of a road rout and the Rangers have gone 10-3 when they are a road favorite in a range of -125 all the way up to -175 in recent seasons. Look for the Tigers to drop to 8-13 this season when off of a win. 10* TEXAS |
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05-21-17 | Diamondbacks v. Padres OVER 8 | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 36 m | Show |
Bulldogs Best - Rickenbach Sunday MLB 10* Top Play OVER the total in San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 4:40 ET - Another blowout win for the Dbacks yesterday and they've now won 5 straight games and the over is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games. The Padres have been slumping but they have had just 2 unders in their last 9 games and I expect them to enjoy success against Zach Godley this afternoon. I know Godley has surprisingly impressive overall numbers so far this season but he's only made 3 starts and he struggled the most in his start against the Padres. In fact, in his last 2 starts against San Diego he has given up 6 earned runs in 10 innings of work. Godley is not the only one with a match-up "issue" here as the Padres Clayton Richard has struggled against Arizona. The San Diego southpaw has given up 14 runs (11 earned) on 23 hits in the less than 15 innings of work spanning his last 3 starts against the Dbacks. Also, Richard comes into this start having allowed 11 earned runs in the 11 innings spanning his last two home starts. He simply continues to get hit hard time and time again. The over is 3-1 in Richard's home starts this season and 2-1 in all of Godley's starts this year. The over is 8-2 in Padres games this season when they are on a losing streak of 3 games or more. The over is 23-12 the last three seasons combined when Arizona is on a winning streak of 3 games or more. 10* OVER the total in the San Diego |
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05-20-17 | Predators +114 v. Ducks | Top | 3-1 | Win | 114 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
Bulldogs Best - Rickenbach Saturday NHL 10* Top Play Nashville Predators Money Line (+) @ Anaheim Ducks @ 7:15 ET - The Predators are off of a loss Thursday and truly did not play all that well. However, they still showed enough resilience to send the game to overtime and lets not forget that the Preds had outshot the Ducks by a combined margin of 119 to 76 in the first three games of this series. Nashville is the better team in this series but now we get line value because they're on the road. I love having the Predators off of a loss at plus money as this is a team that hasn't lost back to back games since early April! Keep in mind, Nashville was 10-3 in the post-season before that Game 4 home loss Thursday and the Predators are fired up to respond here. This is an odd start time Saturday (5:15 local time in Anaheim) and the Ducks have lost 9 of 13 Saturday games this season. The Preds had to rally from a 3-2 series deficit in last year's playoff match-up with the Ducks and they don't want that to be the case in this year's match-up. The Predators will bring a hugely intense Game 5 effort and, keep in mind, last year's 7 games series saw the road team win all but one game! Considering the split so far in this series (each team winning once so far on enemy ice) that means that the road team has won 8 of the last 11 playoff games between these teams. I look for that trend to continue here and will grab the line value with the hungry road dog ready for revenge for what happened on their home ice Thursday. 10* NASHVILLE |
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05-20-17 | Indians v. Astros OVER 9 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 10 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach Saturday MLB 10* Top Play OVER the total in Houston Astros vs Cleveland Indians @ 4:10 ET - Mike Fiers of the Astros has been giving up tons of homers. Fiers has already allowed 16 homers this season including 8 in his last 3 starts! The Indians are averaging 5.8 runs per game in their last 5 games. On the season they've averaged 5 runs per game (plus have a slugging percentage of .433) against right-handed starters. They should pound Fiers as his struggles continue. The right-hander gave up 2 homers to the Indians when he faced them earlier this season and he has truly regressed since then. As for the Cleveland hurler this afternoon it will be Mike Clevinger on the mound and he's been struggling to find the plate in his first two start this season. With 9 walks in just 10 innings, Clevinger has been getting himself into jams. That spells trouble against an Astros team that has averaged 5.4 runs per game against right-handed pitchers while hitting .278 against them on the season. Even with last night's loss, Houston is still 9-2 their last 11 games and they've averaged 6 runs per game during this hot streak. Look for more of the same here! The over is 4-1-1 in Fiers last 6 starts. Also, the over is 7-3 this season when the Astros are off of a loss. The Indians had recorded 4 straight overs before yesterday's game stayed just under the total. These two solid lineups make up for that one today! 10* OVER the total in Houston |
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05-19-17 | Cavs v. Celtics +6.5 | Top | 130-86 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Friday 10* Top Play Boston Celtics (+) vs Cleveland Cavaliers @ 8:30 ET - The Celtics didn't come this far and battle so hard for home court edge only to get trampled in both games on their home floor to open up this series. In other words, after a "wake up call" in Game 1 on Wednesday, look for Boston to respond in a big way on Friday in Game 2. The Celtics were on a 9-2 ATS run before getting blown out by double digits Wednesday. Boston is 10-4 ATS (and SU!) when off of a loss by 10 points or more this season. While I do indeed expect that the Celtics will win this one outright, I am absolutely going to grab the generous points being offered. Boston is 77-52 ATS the last 3 seasons combined when playing with revenge. As for the mighty Cavaliers, they managed to win Game 1 despite making only 35.5% of their three pointers. That is significant because that type of shooting performance has been an ominous sign for the Cavs in recent months. When Cleveland is held under 38% from three point land in their prior game they have a 2-9 ATS record in their next game! The Celtics will turn up the heat on defense in this game and make the proper adjustments and I look for this game to go right down to the wire which means excellent line value with the generous points being offered here. 10* BOSTON |
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05-19-17 | Penguins -107 v. Senators | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
PA Insider - Rickenbach NHL Friday 10* Top Play Pittsburgh Penguins Money Line (-) @ Ottawa Senators @ 8 ET - The Penguins got thoroughly embarrassed in Wednesday's loss and can be expected to respond here and even the series up after that 5-1 defeat. The Pens are 14-6 this season when off of a loss by a multiple goal margin and 22-10 this season when off of a game where they allowed 4 goals or more. The Senators are only 4-4 this season when leading in a playoff series and only 12-12 when off of a win by a margin of 2 goals or more. Marc-Andre Fleury was awful in goal in Game 3 and whether he is back in net or Matt Murray gets the call, you can look for a response from Pittsburgh between the pipes tonight. The D-men in front of the entire team really pick up the intensity and effort after a game like that. In many respects it's easier to bounce back mentally from a game like that compared to a tight OT loss or one-goal defeat. The Penguins have the better power play and will "carry play" so much in Game 4 that they'll earn a few penalties from the Senators. The Sens are on an 0 for 21 run on the power play. A lot of factors in favor of the Pens here and they are also a little healthier than they were entering Wednesday's game. 10* PITTSBURGH |
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05-19-17 | Indians v. Astros OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 8 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Houston Astros vs Cleveland Indians @ 8:10 ET - This total has dropped from a 9 to an 8.5 and in some books as of mid-day gameday you don't even have to lay any juice when going over the 8.5 total. This is a fantastic value because neither one of these starting pitchers should be expected to enjoy much success here. Cleveland is starting Trevor Bauer and he has struggled this season including a 7.87 ERA and 1.75 WHIP in his last three starts. Also, in his last two starts against the Astros, Bauer has given up 9 earned runs in 11 innings and he allowed 4 homers in those two outings. Houston will have Charlie Morton on the mound and he piled up the strikeouts in his most recent start but he has walked 4 batters in each of his last two starts even though he didn't complete 6 innings in either outing. The Indians come into this game having averaged 6 runs per game in their last 4 games and also having scored at least 6 runs in each of their past two road games. The Astros also come in red hot as they have won 9 of their last 10 games and have averaged 6.3 runs per game in those 10 games. The Astros game Wednesday stayed under but previously they had not had an under in 4 straight games and the Indians do come into this one having gone over the total in 4 straight games. Look for the over to improve to 5-2 this season when the Astros are playing after a day off. A lot of line value here because these pitchers have the "attention" of the betting markets right now and both teams do have solid bullpens. But these lineups have plenty of pop at the plate and have been hot. That's why I am being a contrarian here and looking for a high-scoring match-up. 10* OVER the total in Houston |
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05-19-17 | Nationals v. Braves +157 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 157 | 8 h 38 m | Show |
Bulldogs Best - Rickenbach MLB Friday 10* Top Play Atlanta Braves Money Line (+) vs Washington Nationals @ 7:35 ET - Knuckle baller R.A. Dickey gets the start for the Braves tonight and a light breeze is expected to be at his back tonight at SunTrust Park. It is also expected to be quite humid in Atlanta tonight with the light southeast wind. Dickey likes the way his knuckler reacts in humid conditions and it also has been proven that when the wind is at his back the movement is a little better for him and the hitters struggle even more to make good contact. As you can see, conditions are ripe for Dickey to have a strong start tonight and the veteran hurler allowed just 3 hits to the Nationals in 7 innings when he faced them earlier this season. Also, he has a solid 3.60 ERA in his last 3 starts versus the Nats. Washington will have Gio Gonzalez on the mound tonight and he has been rocked for 15 earned runs on 23 hits in just 13 innings of work spanning his last 3 starts versus the Braves. The Nationals left-hander also comes into this start having allowed 6 earned runs in 6 innings in his most recent road start. The Braves got crushed 9-0 yesterday but had won 5 of 6 games prior to last night's ugly loss. The Nats come into this one having lost 6 of their last 10 games and they are truly over-priced on the road here. I'll gladly take advantage by grabbing the home dog value here as I expect Dickey to pitch a gem as the Braves get revenge for getting swept at home in a 3-game series at SunTrust Park last month. 10* ATLANTA BRAVES |
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05-18-17 | Ducks v. Predators -132 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -132 | 7 h 25 m | Show |
NBC Sports Network Rout - Rickenbach NHL Thursday 10* Top Play Nashville Predators Money Line (-) vs Anaheim Ducks @ 8 ET - This series is only 2-1 in favor of the Predators and the two Preds wins have been one goal wins. However, Nashville has proven to be the much better team and the closer results have merely helped to give us some phenomenal line value here. The Predators have actually outshot the Ducks by a combined total of 119 to 76. That's an average of edge of 14.3 shots PER GAME so far in this series. When you are getting extra chances at scoring you're going to eventually break through and this actually has a great shot at being the big "break through" game for the Preds. They outshot the Ducks 40 to 20 on Tuesday and won for the 6th time in 6 home games in this post-season! With this line dropping down into the 130 range this morning we were afforded some phenomenal line value here with the better team playing the better hockey and on home ice! Look for Anaheim to drop to 4-7 in their last 11 Western Conference Finals games. Look for the red hot Preds to improve to 24-11 in their last 35 games against teams with a winning record. 10* NASHVILLE |
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05-18-17 | Blue Jays -120 v. Braves | Top | 9-0 | Win | 100 | 7 h 55 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach MLB Thursday 10* Top Play Toronto Blue Jays Money Line (-) @ Atlanta Braves @ 7:35 ET - The Braves have won 3 straight in this interleague home and home set as they won both games in Toronto and now have taken the first of the two games in Atlanta. I know the Blue Jays have struggled at times early this season but I don't see them losing 4 straight to the Braves. This is particularly true with the big pitching edge the Jays have here. Marcus Stroman gets the start for the Blue Jays and he has a 1.50 ERA in his last 2 starts and struck out 9 in 6 innings in his most recent start. It was great to see his strikeout numbers elevate in that start and he is also known as an excellent ground ball pitcher which will serve him well at SunTrust Park in Atlanta. Another big help for him is the fact that the Braves have never faced him! The same can not be said for the Atlanta starter tonight as Julio Teheran gets the start for the home team and he has a 6.60 ERA in the 3 starts he has made against the Blue Jays in his career. Additionally, the right-hander has given up 5 homers in the less than 11 innings spanning his last two starts against the Jays. This season, Teheran is 1-3 at home with an ugly 8.14 ERA and 1.86 WHIP! When you're giving up nearly 2 baserunners per inning it doesn't take long to get into a heap of trouble. The Braves did score 8 runs yesterday but it was only on 6 hits and, in fact, that was the 7th time in their last 11 games that Atlanta has been held to 8 hits or less. Toronto is averaging 5.5 runs per game in their last 8 games! Also, the Blue Jays had won 5 straight games (and 11 of 15) before this tough stretch versus the Braves. I look for them to snap out of it tonight as Atlanta is dropped to 7-15 this season in games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. 10* TORONTO |
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05-18-17 | Phillies v. Rangers OVER 10 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 6 h 46 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Texas Rangers vs Philadelphia Phillies @ 2:05 ET - This is a contrarian play because I am happy to go with the over even though the Rangers Martin Perez has a low ERA this season and the under is 6-2 in his starts and the under is 2-1 in Nick Pivetta's starts. The fact is that Perez has a 3.89 ERA this season but 1.68 WHIP and that means he has been playing with fire far too often. When a pitcher is doing that they are eventually going to get burned. The Phillies have averaged 5 runs per game in their games against left-handed starters and Perez has allowed 23 hits in his last 18 innings. As for the Phils Pivetta, he has been rocked for 23 hits (including 5 homers) in less than 15 innings of work spanning his 3 starts this season. The young right-hander also walked 4 in his most recent start even though he couldn't even complete 5 innings. Pivetta is facing a Texas lineup that has been red hot as the Rangers have won 8 straight games and averaged 6.4 runs per game during this 8-0 run. The Phillies are 9-3 to the over this season in road games where they are an underdog in a range of +125 to +175. Also, Philadelphia is 29-13 to the over in interleague games the past 3 seasons combined. The Phils sticks have been a little quiet so far in this series but they came to Texas having scored 5.7 runs per game in their 6 prior games. Look for Perez, who has been ultra hittable of late, to bring out the best in the Phillies sticks today. The Rangers, against a struggling rookie hurler, should stay red hot at the plate too. 10* OVER the total in Texas |
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05-17-17 | Cavs v. Celtics +5 | Top | 117-104 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
TNT No Doubt ATS Blowout Rout - Rickenbach NBA Wednesday 10* Top Play Boston Celtics (+) vs Cleveland Cavaliers @ 8:30 ET - The Cavaliers have been off for a week and a half. I know the Cavs were off for a week before they met Toronto and yet they still blasted the Raptors by double digits in that game. However, the Celtics are not the Raptors AND this game is on the road! Look for Cleveland to struggle to put away the top-seeded Celtics here. I do expect Boston to win this game outright but I'll gladly grab the generous points being offered. The Celtics might be a little sore and/or tired after their 7-game battle with the Wizards. However, Boston unless comes into this game with momentum and should play crisp basketball tonight while the Cavaliers could be a little disjointed after the long lay-off. Cleveland is facing one of the higher-scoring teams in the league and, interestingly, the Cavs are 10-13 ATS (and SU!) in games this season against teams that are averaging 106 points or more per game. The Celtics are playing this game with home loss revenge from an embarrassing loss in Boston in early April. This season the Celtics are 23-13 SU and 21-13 ATS when playing with revenge! Ton of respect for the Cavs but they opened up as a 3-point favorite here with good reason and yet everyone has jumped all over them and pushed this line higher. Boston coach Brad Stevens is an excellent coach and the Celtics fought hard to earn the #1 seed and home court edge in the East. They certainly aren't going to easily relinquish it. Look for the Celtics to come out very strong here as the Cavaliers struggle to get back into proper game flow. 10* BOSTON |
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05-17-17 | Penguins v. Senators +117 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 117 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NHL Wednesday 10* Top Play Ottawa Senators Money Line (+) vs Pittsburgh Penguins @ 8 ET - The Penguins are very banged up right now. I know they have some depth on their blue line and are planning to use some veteran defensemen but it is still going to be tough now that the the Pens are without their top three D-men. As for the Senators, I look for them to get a spark by returning home where they have won 3 straight post-season games. Keep in mind, Ottawa had won 6 of their last 8 overall before the 1-0 loss to Pittsburgh on Monday. The Pens had lost 4 of 6 before coming up with the tight win in Game 2 of this series. The Penguins have been struggling to score goals and I look for them to drop to 1-3 this season when they enter a game on an "under streak" of 3 games or more. The Pens have had 3 straight unders and the normally high-flying Penguins have been held to 2 goals or less in 5 straight games. The Senators had averaged 3 goals per game in their last 8 games before being shutout in Game 2. Even though the Pens are a few games over .500 against teams with a winning record in the season they have netted $0 profit because they are such a public team (and again are over-priced here in my opinion). As for the Senators, they are a fantastic 29-18 and +$19,600 in games against teams with a winning record this season. At home for just the 2nd time since late April, the Senators are really going to be amped here and the fans will be going nuts as the Sens host the defending champs with a chance to get a 2-1 lead knowing they'll still have 2 more home games in this series (if needed). With the Pens very banged up, the Sens take advantage of the situation and I'll gladly grab the hungry home dog here. 10* OTTAWA SENATORS money line |
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05-17-17 | Reds v. Cubs OVER 11.5 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 29 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds @ 8:05 ET - I won with the over in this match-up yesterday and I expect another slugfest today. Last night 7 homers were hit and, once again, it will be another warm evening at Wrigley Field with the wind blowing out toward left field. Even though the Reds Scott Feldman has surprisingly decent numbers so far this season, the veteran right-hander pitches to contact (only 7 strikeouts in the 16 innings spanning his last two starts) and contract = trouble when the wind is blowing out at Wrigley Field. As for the Cubs pitcher in this one, Kyle Hendricks is getting the call and he has solid numbers this season but actually has a 4.11 ERA at home that could be even higher as he has a 1.57 WHIP in home games. The last time he faced the Reds he allowed 4 earned runs in only 5 innings of work. The over is now an incredible 29-10 in match-ups between these clubs in recent seasons. Also, the over is 13-4 this season in Cincinnati's games when they are off of a loss. Also, when on a losing streak of 3 games or more, the Reds have seen the over go a perfect 5-0 this season! The Cubs are 11-6 to the over this season and their lineup is full of power while the Reds also have a dangerous lineup with some big HR hitters as well. Look for another slugfest here and I'll gladly fade the line move as the odds makers said we want 12.5 on this game and the betting markets have already pushed it down to an 11.5 this morning! 10* OVER the total in Chicago Cubs |
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05-16-17 | Spurs v. Warriors UNDER 210 | Top | 100-136 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
Total Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Tuesday 10* Top Play UNDER the total in Golden State Warriors vs San Antonio Spurs @ 9 ET - Already without Tony Parker, the Spurs are now also very likely to be without Kawhi Leonard for this one Tuesday. Though both these players are key contributors on defense, there is no denying that Parker is a key catalyst on offense and Leonard is San Antonio's #1 scorer. With that said, the Spurs know they must turn this Game 2 affair into a slow-down, grind-it-out style of game if they have any hopes of springing the huge upset. The Warriors simply have too many weapons for SA to risk getting into a shootout with Golden State. The Spurs also want to do the best they can to keep the crowd out of it. Of course when they lost Leonard to injury in Game 1 there was a little bit of "shell shock" and the Spurs had trouble recovering from that and they blew a huge lead. Now, going into Game 2, coach Popovich and company has had time to adjust and game plan properly and the Spurs know that this is the hand they are dealt with. In other words, it's an entirely different game planning for the Spurs for Tuesday night and I look for them, as usual, to execute it very well under coach Pop's tutelage. The result should be a low-scoring affair as the Warriors can certainly play some D too (allowed only 43% shooting from the field this season) and the Spurs, before Game 1's tight defeat, had held their opponent to 96 points or less in 4 of their last 7 games. That included their stifling defensive effort against the Rockets in Game 6 on the road where they held Houston to 75 points. Certainly the Warriors aren't the Rockets but you understand why the Spurs D can be expected to "rise up" for this one! The under is 9-4 in Warriors conference final games and the under is 42-27 in Spurs games when they are facing teams that average 106 points or more per game. 10* UNDER the total in Golden State |
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05-16-17 | Yankees v. Royals OVER 9.5 | Top | 7-1 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 4 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Tuesday 10* OVER the total in Kansas City Royals vs New York Yankees @ 8:15 ET - Wind blowing out to left. Warm temperatures. The Royals hitting much better with a 6-1 record their last 7 games and averaging 6 runs per game in those 6 wins. The Yankees sticks have been strong all season as they've averaged 5.7 runs per game on the year. Also, the Yanks have won 7 of their last 11 games and have averaged 6.6 runs per game during this hot stretch. The pitching match-up tonight is certainly conducive to an over as C.C. Sabathia is winless in his last 3 starts with an ugly 10.34 ERA in these outings. The Royals Jason Hammel has allowed 16 runs (15 earned!) in the 19 innings spanning his last 4 starts. The over is 4-1 this season when Kansas City is playing after a day off. New York is 9-4 to the over this season when they are off of a loss. Also, when the Yankees are off of a game where they allowed 10 runs or more, they've gone 14-6 to the over the past 3 seasons combined. 10* OVER the total in Kansas City |
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05-16-17 | Rays +157 v. Indians | Top | 6-4 | Win | 157 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play Tampa Bay Rays Money Line (+) @ Cleveland Indians @ 6:10 ET - The Rays outscored the Indians 6-3 from the 2nd inning on yesterday but they had dug too deep of a hole with a bad first inning that included a huge 2-out 3-run bomb for the Tribe. That ugly first inning for Tampa Bay certainly ended up being the difference in a game that ended up being a one run loss for the Rays. Look for Tampa to respond today as they have a huge pitching edge in this one. Yes, Danny Salazar of the Indians has a good reputation but he really hasn't been pitching that well and that means we are getting line value in going against a "big name" pitcher that will be attracting the attention of the market. Salazar has given up 7 earned runs and lasted just 7 and 1/3 innings in his last two starts combined. Conversely, the Rays have a red hot pitcher on the mound as Jake Odorizzi has been great since coming off of the disabled list. The Tampa right-hander has delivered a solid 2-1 with a 1.50 ERA while allowing just nine hits and only three walks over 18 innings spanning his last 3 starts. Overall, in Odorizzi's last 25 innings on the mound, opponents have only 12 hits against him! He should get plenty of run support too as the Rays have averaged 5.3 runs per game in their last 13 games and I expect Salazar's recent struggles to continue. We're getting so much line value with the big dog in this spot that I am going with highest rating here. 10* TAMPA BAY money line |
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05-14-17 | Predators +100 v. Ducks | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NHL Sunday 10* Top Play Nashville Predators Money Line (+) @ Anaheim Ducks @ 7:30 ET - Many will look to back the Ducks here as they just can't see them going into an 0-2 hole on their home ice in this series. However, how many people though these Predators would sweep the Blackhawks? The fact is that the Preds are now 9-2 in the post-season and simply rolling! They also outshot Anaheim by a 46-29 count in Game One! The Ducks are only 4-4 in their last 8 games and just aren't playing at the same level that this Nashville team is right now. I love to use the "zig zag theory" to my advantage and this is one of those cases. With the Ducks off of a home loss in Game 1, the betting markets will favor them here and the result is line value for us by being a contrarian. I love being a contrarian when I know I have the better team at a good price. Look for Nashville to add to their impressive 5-2 mark when leading in a playoff series. As for Anaheim, I look for them to drop to 3-6 their last 9 games in conference finals action. Special teams is a key edge for the Predators as their penalty kill has been phenomenal while the Ducks penalty kill has been only mediocre in this post-season and their power plays has fizzled out. Anaheim is 0 for 20 with the man advantage in their last 6 games! 10* NASHVILLE |
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05-14-17 | Philadelphia Phillies - Game #2 +185 v. Washington Nationals - Game #2 | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
Game of the Month Shocker - Rickenbach MLB Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line +185 @ Washington Nationals @ 7:05 ET in Game TWO of the double header - Vincent Velasquez is a fiery right-hander that is known for stepping up in big game situations. With the Phillies having had some extra days off recently he has extra rest coming into this start. Conversely, the Nationals Max Scherzer is on regular rest and has thrown a ton of pitches in his last two starts as he's piled up the strikeouts. While it is true that Velasquez just lost to the Nationals last week, he actually pitched quite well in that start and certainly didn't have luck on his side in the way that one played out. Velasquez has allowed just 7 hits in his 11 innings on the road this season and got the win over, coincidentally, Scherzer, in his most recent start at Washington which was in April of last year. Scherzer has allowed 7 homers in his last 4 starts and there is simply way too much value being offered to the Phillies to ignore this spot. Lefties have hit about 100 points higher than righties against Scherzer this season and the Phils lineup will have plenty of left-handed lumber as they have a number of switch-hitters and left-handed bats. The Phillies have won 2 of the last 3 starts made by Velaquez while Scherzer is only 1-2 at home this season. The Nationals have reached double digits in their last 2 games but previously had managed only 8 hits or less in 4 straight games. The Phils only had 8 hits yesterday but previously had 11 hits in each of their three prior games. Look for a shocker Sunday night in Game 2 of this double header. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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05-14-17 | Spurs v. Warriors -10 | Top | 111-113 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Sunday 10* Top Play Golden State Warriors vs San Antonio Spurs @ 3:30 ET - Even though the Warriors won the most recent meeting between these teams (by 12 at San Antonio in late March), Golden State still has revenge on their minds heading into this one. The only time this season that the Warriors hosted the Spurs this season, it was Golden State's home opener and they got embarrassed in a 29 point loss. Home loss revenge is a pretty strong motivator and there is another reason to expect the Warriors to show no mercy here. They want to set the tone for this series. Golden State wants to flex their muscles in Game 1 and not give the big dog Spurs any chance to get any momentum going early in this series. This line may look big at -10 but the odds makers opened this one up at double digits with good reason. The Warriors are 8-0 in the post-season and 7 of the 8 wins have come by a double digit margin! As for the Spurs, each of their 6 games with the Rockets was decided by double digits except for the lone OT game. It was that OT loss for Houston that took the wind out of their sails and left them dead in Game 6. No excuse really for that but the Rockets were no match for SA in Game 6 and that helped to create some line value because everyone watched the Spurs blowout the Rockets in that series-clinching road win. The Spurs are 2-4 ATS this season when off of an upset win as an underdog. San Antonio is also 5-9 ATS when off of 2 days or more of rest. The Warriors are on a powerful 14-7 ATS run in games against teams with a winning record and, after what happened at Oracle Arena on October 25th, the Spurs have their full attention! 10* GOLDEN STATE |
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05-13-17 | Tigers v. Angels OVER 8 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
Global Smash - Rickenbach MLB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Los Angeles Angels vs Detroit Tigers @ 9:05 ET - It has been feast or famine lately for the Tigers sticks and, based on the fact they're facing the Angels Ricky Nolasco tonight, I definitely look for more feast than famine in this one. Detroit, prior to getting shutout yesterday, had scored 5 runs or more in 8 of their last 10 games. Yesterday's loss was the 3rd time in 8 games that the Tigers had been held to 2 runs or less but, as you can see, they've had some big production on offense in most of their games. As far as facing Nolasco, he has given up 3 homers in his last 2 starts versus Detroit and plus has walked 6 while striking out just 2. Look for the Tigers to making plenty of contact against him and they have roughed him up for 9 hits in 6 innings in 2 of his last 3 starts against them. The Angels are also likely to hit well in this one. Los Angeles is facing a struggling Daniel Norris. The Tigers left-hander has an ugly 2.05 WHIP in his last 3 starts so truly he is fortunate that his 5.52 ERA is not higher than it is! The Angels exploded for 7 runs on 14 hits yesterday and I look for them to carry some momentum from that performance right into today's game. The over is 0-1 this season (but went 15-8-1 the prior 2 seasons) when the Angels are off of a shutout win. Detroit is 8-1 to the over this season (and 47-20 to the over the past 2+ seasons) when they are on the road and the posted total is 8 or 8.5 runs. Also, when off of a loss this season the Tigers have gone 12-3 to the over. 10* OVER the total in Los Angeles Angels |
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