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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-08-17 | Seahawks v. Rams OVER 47.5 | 16-10 | Loss | -110 | 43 h 1 m | Show | |
40* NFL OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (OVER 47.5) If I had to take a side in this one, I would probably take the points with the Seahawks, but I see a lot more value here in the total. I know the majority of the recent meetings have been very low-scoring. This is a much different Rams team than the past seasons under Jeff Fisher, whose staff clearly didn’t know offense. Under new head coach Sean McVay the Rams are leading the NFL at 35.5 ppg and are 5th in yardage at 383.8 ypg. If they just convert 4 of those 7 field goals to TDs, they would have hung 50 on the Cowboys. That’s a better Dallas defense than it gets credit for. Seattle’s defense gets a lot of love, but don’t think they are elite on that side of the ball. Right defensive end Cliff Avril is out of this one and right corner Jeremy Lane left the last game with a groin injury and is questionable to play. I got confidence in McVay’s ability to put together a gameplan to attack this right side of the field with success. The biggest thing here is the play of the Rams defense is getting completely overlooked. It’s really been bad through 4 games. They rank 27th in total defense and teams are running it all over them. They are 30th against the run, allowing 151.5 ypg. The only team they have held to fewer than 27 points is the Colts when they were starting Scott Tolzien. The thing that really stands out to me is the contest against the 49ers. The let SF pile on 421 yards and 39 points. The 49ers have a whopping 27 points in their other 3 games combined and in those 3 games have averaged just 256.y ypg. Seattle’s offense always starts out slow and this year was no different. I think they got some confidence going on that side after scoring 3 TD’s in the final 20 minutes against the Colts. A big spark for that unit was running back J.D. McKissic, who scored twice and could see more action with Chris Carson out. I’ll take my chances the trends continue here with the Rams playing in high-scoring games, as each of their first 4 games have seen at least 47 points. Note that Seattle’s last two have seen 50+ combined points. Give me the OVER 47.5! |
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10-08-17 | Jets v. Browns +1 | 17-14 | Loss | -110 | 40 h 42 m | Show | |
40* NFL PUBLIC ATS BLOODBATH (Browns +1) I’ll be the first two admit that I didn’t think the Jets would be sitting at 2-2 right now. In fact, I would have picked the Jets to be the team in this contest that was still searching for their first win. I’m not going to let a couple victories over the Dolphins and Jaguars change my thought process. I still think New York is one of the least talented teams in the league and will be at or near the bottom of the NFL standings at the end of the season. Both of their wins came at home and it’s easy to disregard both. Miami was just shutout by the Saints defense, which says how bad things are for the Dolphins on that side of the ball. Jacksonville has a win over the Texans prior to Deshaun Watson taking over and that victory over the Ravens looks a lot less impressive after how bad Baltimore played last week. I also feel like the Jets went into those last two games with the feeling they had something to proved (underdog in both). I think they struggle to bring that same sense of urgency on the road against the winless Browns. Not only will they struggle to give Cleveland their full attention because of the Browns record and history of losing, but they likely are looking ahead to their game next week at home against the hated Patriots. A matchup they probably feel like they can win with how New England is struggling on defense. Even after giving up 30+ points to the Bengals last week, Cleveland’s defense still ranks a respectable 16th, giving up just 328 ypg. The strength of the unit behind their run defense, which ranks 8th in the NFL, allowing only 87.2 ypg. That makes this an ideal matchup for the Browns, as the Jets are sitting 7th in rushing (130.8 ypg) compared to a mere 26th in passing (192.2 ypg). Keep in mind Cleveland will finally be sending out No. 1 overall pick Myles Garrett for this contest, which should light a fire under the entire unit. As for the Browns offense, I know this doesn’t look like a great matchup for them, but the Jets are 29th in the league against the run, giving up 143.8 ypg. Cleveland’s only game this season where they rushed for more than 100 yards was at Indy when they finished with 28 points. Getting the ground game going will make life easier on Kizer, plus I’m not expecting an all-out effort by New York on the road. Jets are a mere 5-20 ATS in their last 25 games after they gained 6.5 or more yards/play and a mere 3-12 ATS in their last 15 after 2 straight home wins. Give me the Browns +1! |
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10-08-17 | Bills v. Bengals -3 | Top | 16-20 | Win | 100 | 40 h 43 m | Show |
50* VEGAS SHARP MONEY AFC GAME OF THE MONTH (Bengals -3) I think now is the time to sell high on the Bills and buy low on the Bengals. I’ll admit I didn’t see Buffalo starting out 3-1, especially with road games against both the Panthers and the Falcons. A win is a win, but they certainly caught a break when Atlanta lost their best offensive weapon in wide out Julio Jones in the first half and then No. 2 wide out Mohamed Sanu in the 3rd quarter. All 3 of the Bills turnovers came after Jones left the game with an injury, including the big fumble return for a touchdown. The play of the Bills defense has really been the reason for their strong start, but they are dealing with a bit of the injury bug on that side. They just lost weak side linebacker Ramon Humber to a thumb injury. That might not seem like a big injury, mainly because Humber isn’t a household name. However, his 28 sole tacklers are 11 more than the next best player. Starting corner E.J. Gaines is also questionable. Keep in mind that this Buffalo offense hasn’t done a whole lot so far in 2017. They come in ranked 29th in total offense at just 284.3 ypg and are 23rd in scoring at 18.3 ppg. If not for the 3-1 start, there would be a lot more criticism on this unit. Who just lost their top wide out in Jordan Matthews. I look for the Bills offense to continue to struggle here against a Bengals defense that isn’t getting the respect it deserves because of the offenses early woes and their 1-3 start. Cincinnati is 3rd in the NFL in total defense, giving up just 273.3 ypg. That unit only figures to get better now that is has one of it’s biggest playmakers back in linebacker Vontaze Burfict, who just returned from a 3-game suspension last week. It’s also worth noting that this Cincinnati offense has come alive since they fired offensive coordinator Ken Zampese and replaced him with Bill Lazor. As long as the offense takes care of the ball, they should do enough here to win this game by at least a field goal. Bills are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 road games against a good defensive team that is allowing 4.75 or less yards/play. Cincinnati on the other hand is 32-20 ATS under Marvin Lewis off a win by 10 or more points and 26-9 under Lewis after leading their previous game by 14 or more at the half. Give me the Bengals -3 |
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10-07-17 | Minnesota v. Purdue -4 | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 24 h 23 m | Show | |
40* NCAAF VEGAS SHARP MONEY NO BRAINER (Purdue -4) I’ve been really impressed with how much better Purdue is playing on both sides of the ball in the first year under head coach Jeff Brohm. The Boilermakers only two losses are against Louisville and Michigan and they had a chance to win both of those games. They cruised to a 44-21 win over an Ohio team that’s one of the favorites to win the MAC and dismantled Missouri 35-3 on the road. While I’m also a big fan of Fleck at Minnesota, I think the Gophers were getting a little too much respect because of that hire. It certainly felt that way after watching them lose outright at home to a Maryland team that was down to 3rd string quarterback Max Bortenschlager. I know this team started out 3-0, but the competition wasn’t all that challenging. Buffalo is a bottom-tier team out of the MAC, Oregon State’s only win in 2017 is a 3-point victory at home to Portland State and Middle Tennessee looks nothing like the team that won 8 games last year. Minnesota is really struggling on the offensive side of the ball. They come in ranked 93rd in the country at just 368 ypg. That’s against opponents that on average are allowing 396 ypg. Purdue ranks similarly overall at 80th in total offense at 392 ypg, but are exceeding exceptions, as their opponents on average have only allowed 344 ypg. If not for that game against Michigan, the Boilermakers would have a lot better offensive numbers. It’s not just the offense that is excelling early. Purdue is holding opponents to just 3.7 yards/carry on the ground, which is about 1.3 yards under what those teams are averaging. That’s important to note, because Minnesota’s offense is really built on their ground game. The Gophers are 58th in rushing (180.8 ypg) compared to just 100th in passing (187.0 ypg). Another huge factor here that can’t be overlooked is that Purdue is coming off a bye. In his 3 seasons with Western Kentucky, he posted an impressive 5-1 record off a bye week. He was also 8-2 off a loss. A spot we already saw Purdue excel in earlier this season, in their win over Ohio after losing a heartbreaker to Louisville. I think the Boilers could turn this into a bit of a blowout, making this an easy call for me with laying the 4.5. Give me the Boilermakers -4! |
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10-07-17 | Pittsburgh +3.5 v. Syracuse | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 21 h 26 m | Show |
100* ACC (Side) GAME OF THE YEAR (Pittsburgh +3.5) I would have to take the field goal here with the Panthers, as I actually think Pitt should be favored in this game. Syracuse is getting a lot of love for close losses to LSU and NC State. That close call against LSU looks a lot worse after the Tigers just lost to Troy outright. They also caught the Wolfpack at the perfect time, as they were fresh off their win over FSU and had another huge game on deck at Louisville in just 4 days. The win over Central Michigan isn’t anything to get excited about, as the Chippewas just lost by 20 to BC. What really concerns me about the Orange is the loss to Middle Tennessee, who has really struggled in 2017. They just lost by 18 to FAU and their only other win was by just 11 points against an awful Bowling Green squad. I wasn’t the least bit surprised to see Pittsburgh roll Rice last week. The Panthers had an absolutely brutal first 4 games on the schedule. They opened with Youngstown State, who played in the FCS Championship Game a year ago. They then had to go on the road to face Penn State, host Oklahoma State, both of which were ranked in the Top 10 at the time. After that they had a road game against arguably the most underrated team in the country in Georgia Tech. I know the talent has changed for both sides, but keep in mind that Pittsburgh was a 24-point favorite against Syracuse in last year’s meeting. I believe had these two teams opened the season against each other, Pittsburgh definitely would have been favored and maybe by even a touchdown. Now they are getting 3.5-points, as they continue be undervalued after their poor start. A win over Rice isn’t going to change that. Syracuse is only 2-5 ATS in their last 7 vs a team with a losing record and a mere 1-4 ATS in their last 5 at home. Underdog is also 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings between these two schools. Give me the Panthers +3.5! |
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10-07-17 | Duke +2.5 v. Virginia | 21-28 | Loss | -103 | 21 h 14 m | Show | |
40* NCAAF EARLY BIRD BOOKIE KNOCKOUT (Duke +2.5) The fact that Virginia is coming off a bye and in their last game handed Boise State their worst home loss in more than 15 years, I think the public will be drawn to laying less than a field goal at home with the Cavaliers, especially with Duke off that ugly showing at home against Miami. That has me looking the other direction and taking Duke, who I gladly would have taken as a dog prior to their loss to Miami. The final score doesn’t look great against the Hurricanes, but the Blue Devils were more than competitive in that game and were only outlined by 60 yards. Duke had the ball inside the Miami 20 three times in the first half and came away with two field goals. That’s a very good Hurricanes team that returned 15 starters, is now in year two under Mark Right and added in Notre Dame transfer Malik Rosier at quarterback. This is still the same team that dominated Northwestern, Baylor and North Carolina in their previous 3 games. Virginia’s offense is built around their passing attack, which ranks 17th in the country at 312.3 ypg. The problem is they don’t have much of a running game. This Duke defense is the real deal. They come in ranked 14th in the country in total defense, giving up just 291 yards/game. The most impressive stat being they are holding their opponents close 85 yards under their season average. Opposing quarterbacks are completing just 48.3% of their passes, which is more than 10% under what their opponents are averaging (60.4%). The Cavaliers defense has played well so far in 2017, but the highest ranked offense they have faced in terms of yards/game is UConn, which is 31st, but have played two awful defenses in ECU and SMU. The other two FBS foes for Virginia were Indiana, who ranks 81st and Boise State, who ranks 101st. Duke is 43rd in the country and that’s with having faced four Power 5 opponents. The strength of their offense being a rushing attack that ranks 29th at 218.2 ypg. Virginia have up over 200 yards on the ground to UConn a fews week back and I see them struggling here. Another thing with the Blue Devils offense is they are great with ball control, as they come in averaging more than 35 minutes in time of possession. Duke is an impressive 15-5 ATS under David Cutcliffe in games where they are listed anywhere from +3 to -3 on the spread. The Blue Devils are also 22-7-1 ATS in their last 30 games in the month of October, 7-3 ATS in their last 10 off a loss by more than 20 points and11-5 ATS in their last 16 road games. Give me the Blue Devils +2.5! |
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10-07-17 | Wake Forest +22.5 v. Clemson | 14-28 | Win | 100 | 21 h 51 m | Show | |
40* NCAAF PUBLIC ATS ANNIHILATOR (Wake Forest +22.5) Any doubt the public had with this Clemson team was thrown out the window in their convincing win on the road over Virginia Tech. They will look to back this team no matter the price and this a great spot to take advantage of an inflated line on the Tigers. Clemson is going to have a hard time bringing that same intensity against the Demon Deacons, as they did last week against the Hokies on the road in a prime time night game. I think that's a big mistake, as this Wake Forest team is playing really well under Dave Clawson. They are 4-1 with their only loss coming to Florida State, where the Seminoles scored the game winning touchdown with less than a minute to play. What will get overlooked in that final is the fact that Wake outgained FSU by almost a 100 yards (367-270). This is Clemson's homecoming, but I think that only adds to the distractions for the Tigers and has them not 100% locked in on the task at hand. It's a spot they have struggled with in the past as well. Keep in mind Clemson was tied 7-7 with BC at home two weeks ago and Wake Forest rolled the Eagles by 24 in an earlier meeting this season. I think this is a game throughout and we easily cover here. Give me the Demon Deacons +22.5! |
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10-07-17 | Illinois v. Iowa -17 | Top | 16-45 | Win | 100 | 21 h 52 m | Show |
50* NCAAF BIG TEN GAME OF THE MONTH (Iowa -17) This might seem like a lot of points to be laying on Iowa considering they have scored fewer than 20 points in each of their last two games. However, that was against two of the best defenses in the country. Penn State is currently ranked 13th in total defense, allowing just 289.2 ypg and Michigan State is 5th giving up only 248.3 ypg. Look for the Hawkeyes offense to get back on track against an Illinois defense that comes in 99th in the country, allowing 427.5 ypg. They are equally bad against both the run and the pass. The Illini rank 92nd in run defense (179.5 ypg) and 94th in pass defense (248.0 ypg). Iowa should be able to move the chains with their rushing attack and hit some big plays down the field via play action to really break this thing open. I also think this is a great matchup for Iowa’s defense, as Illinois clearly has some problems if they are only scoring 6-points at home off a bye against a pretty average Nebraska defense. There’s 130 FBS teams and the Illini ranks 113th in rushing (106 ypg) and 114th in passing (161.3 ypg). The Hawkeyes defensive front should have a field day in this game and I wouldn’t be shocked if Iowa shutout the Illinois for a second straight year. It’s also worth pointing out that I think this is a great spot to back Iowa, who aren’t going to be overlooking Illinois off back-to-back losses. They have to feel like this is one they have to win and that’s the mindset we are looking for when it comes to covering a big spread like this. This is also homecoming for Iowa, so we can expect a packed house at Kinnick on Saturday. Hawkeyes are an impressive 33-13 ATS under Ferentz off a road loss and 16-5 ATS after two straight games where they failed to rush for at least 100 yards. Illinois on the other hand is 8-22 ATS in their last 30 off two straight losses by 17 or more points. Give me Iowa -17! |
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10-06-17 | Boise State -7.5 v. BYU | Top | 24-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
50* NCAAF NON-CONF GAME OF THE MONTH (Boise St -7.5) The Broncos will be returning from their bye week looking to bounce back from an ugly 23-42 loss at home to Virginia as a 14-point favorite. Boise State is just 1-2-1 ATS with the only cover coming in their heartbreaking 44-47 overtime loss at Washington State, where they blew a 31-10 lead with less than 10 minutes to play in the 4th quarter. BYU comes in off a 24-40 loss to Utah State last Friday, failing to yet again as a 1.5-point favorite. The Cougars have lost 4 straight overall since beating Portland State in their opener and are 0-5 ATS. BYU is broken right now and I just don’t know how you can back this team with any confidence. Boise State on the other hand has at least shown me something with that performance against Washington State, which looks a heck of a lot better after the Cougars upset USC. BYU’s offense has been atrocious and that’s putting it nicely. There’s a 130 FBS teams and they rank 116h in rushing (104.0 ypg) and 118th in passing (152.6 ypg). It doesn’t figure to get any better. Starting quarterback Tanner Magnum is out indefinitely with an ankle injury and backup Beau Hoge is questionable with a head injury. Not only is the offense struggling to get first downs, but they aren’t protecting the football. They have 12 turnovers in their last 3 games, including 7 last week against Utah State. It doesn't figure to get any better as they are down to 3rd string QB Koy Detmer, who was 7 of 20 for 91 yards and 0 TDs and 3 INTs in relief of Hoge last week. This Boise State defense is a heck of lot better than what the Aggies brought to the table. Their strength being their run defense, which ranks 30th in the country, giving up just 115.8 ypg. If they can keep BYU’s running game in check, it’s hard to piece together how the Cougars are going to be able to sustain drives and put points on the board. I also like that we are getting the Broncos off an embarrassing loss to Virginia. That one couldn’t have set well with the players. You can bet head coach Bryan Harsin had their full attention in practice over the bye week. This Boise State team has to be itching to get back on the field and put something positive together before their big game next week at San Diego State. As a head coach at Boise State and Arkansa State, Harsin’s teams have gone 7-2 SU after a bye. They are also 9-3 SU off a loss. I’m confident the trends continue and the Broncos leave Provo with a double-digit victory. Give me Boise State -7.5! |
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10-05-17 | Patriots v. Bucs +6 | Top | 19-14 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
50* PATS/BUCS NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Bucs +6) This Patriots defense has been dreadful through the first four weeks of the season. They are 31st in points allowed at 32.0 ppg and dead last in yards allowed (476.8 ypg). They are 32nd against the pass (324.0 ypg) and 26th against the run (132.8 ypg). This past weekend they let Cam Newtown and a struggling Carolina offense rack up 33 points and 444 yards. The defense was so bad, the Patriots couldn’t even win at home, despite being +2 in turnovers. As much as I hate going against Bill Belichick and Tom Brady off a loss, I just see too much value in Tampa Bay as an underdog at home. I was impressed with how the Bucs responded against the Giants, as they were still missing some key players on defense. They are starting to get healthy on that side of the ball and while I don’t expect them to shutdown Brady and the Patriots offense, I think they can keep them in check enough to keep this game close and at least cover. More than anything, I just don’t see New England’s defense being able to slow down Jameis Winston and this high-powered Buccaneers offense. A unit that’s only going to get better once DeSean Jackson starts getting more involved. They also get a big boost to their running game this week, as Doug Martin returns from a 3-game suspension. Martin was impressive in training camp and could step in right away with a huge game against this Pats defense. While New England’s offense is built around Brady and the passing attack, the ability to have some success on the ground is critical. It won’t be easy getting the running game going against the Bucs, who rank 5th in the NFL against the run, allowing just 78.7 ypg and a mere 2.9 yards/carry. Note that the Patriots are just 1-4 ATS over the last 3 seasons against teams who are holding opponents under 90 rushing yards/game. Give me the Bucs +6! |
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10-05-17 | Louisville v. NC State +4.5 | 25-39 | Win | 100 | 50 h 13 m | Show | |
40* LOUISVILLE/NC STATE BOOKIE ATS KNOCKOUT (NC State +4.5) There’s no question that NC State has had this game circled on the calendar. Not only do they get a chance to go up against a Heisman winner, but they want revenge from that 41-point embarrassment last year. It will be hard for the public to ignore that outcome and not lay the small number here with the Cardinals. I just don’t think this Louisville team is on the same level as last year. They struggled in a neutral site game against an improved, but still bottom of the pack Purdue team. They also trailed a down Tar Heels team 27-28 going into the 4th and got dismantled at home by Clemson. This Wolfpack team has been looking up at FSU and Clemson for years, but the fan base continues to come out and support them with all they got. It’s why it’s never a sure thing when a team makes the trip to Carter-Finley, even when the Wolfpack are down. They aren’t down this year and you can count on an electric home crowd in this one. That’s going to have that NC State defense flying around the field and they need all 11 in full pursuit to keep Jackson in check. I know the Wolfpack don’t have the overall talent on defense as Clemson, but both teams are built around dominant defensive lines and the Tigers front four really made life miserable for Jackson earlier this season. I think Bradley Chubb, Kentavius Street, BJ Hill and Justin Jones wreak havoc here and keep Jackson from having one of those video game type performances. I also think with so much attention on Jackson, people are going to overlook the NC State offense and the fact that they should have a ton of success here against a Louisville defense that has struggled against better competition. The Wolfpack feature a balanced attack that comes in ranked 33rd in the country at 461. The key matchup here being NC State’s 24th ranked passing attack (293.0 ypg) going up against Louisville’s 53rd ranked pass defense. That’s with the Cardinals holding Kent State and Murray State to a combined 72 passing yards in their previous two games. Prior to that they had allowed 293 passing yards to Purdue, 384 to UNC and 316 to Clemson. I just feel that this line is based too much off what we saw last year and not the direction these two teams are heading. While I advise taking the points, I don’t hate a little extra action on the money line. Give me NC State +4.5! |
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10-02-17 | Redskins v. Chiefs -6.5 | 20-29 | Win | 100 | 10 h 31 m | Show | |
40* REDSKINS/CHIEFS NFL MNF ATS KNOCKOUT (Chiefs -6.5) I have to roll the dice here with Kansas City at home in what is going to be an electric atmosphere at Arrowhead Stadium on Monday Night Football. Last time the Chiefs played at home on MNF was that 41-14 blowout win over the Patriots back in 2014. I'm not saying it's going to get that ugly, but I like the Chiefs' chances of winning here by at least a touchdown, something they have done in each of their first 3 games. I think the defense for KC will be able to force some key mistakes by Cousins and the offense will pose some major problems with their dynamic trio of weapons in Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill and Kareem Hunt. Give me the Chiefs -6.5! |
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10-01-17 | Giants +3 v. Bucs | 23-25 | Win | 100 | 19 h 56 m | Show | |
40* NFL BLOCKBUSTER BOOKIE KNOCKOUT (Giants +3) I’m going to take the Giants +3 on the road over Tampa Bay. I think this is do-or-die for New York, as they know they can’t start 0-4 and realistically expect to make the playoffs in the NFC. Most importantly they still believe they are an elite team and we started to see the offense finally come to life late in last week’s game against the Eagles. Odell Beckham Jr. looks to be back to full strength and when he’s good this offense gets a lot more explosive. I also think it has a trickle down effect on the defense, who I expect to show up in a big way. I think we could see an offensive explosion from New York in this one. Tampa Bay’s defense is absolutely decimated with injuries. We know for sure they won’t have Lavonte David and may be without fellow linebacker Kwon Alexander, defensive tackle Gerald McCoy and safety T.J. Ward. They also got guys like Chris Baker, Noah Spence and Jacquies Smith all battling back from injuries. Even if McCoy plays, he’s likely to be less than 100%, which is a big blow to the defense. Though maybe not as big as the loss of David. This banged up defense made Case Keenum look like Drew Brees, as Keenum completed 25 of 33 attempts for 369 yards and 3 scores. Minnesota also had 125 yards on the ground. Keenum was just 20 of 37 for 167 yards with no touchdowns in a ugly 9-25 loss for Minnesota at Pittsburgh. At the same time, the Bucs were fortunate to hold Chicago to just 7-points in their opener. The Bears actually put up very similar offensive numbers to Tampa Bay, but turned it over 4 times. They made 4 trips deep into Bucs territory and only came away with 7 points. The Giants do have a good defense that is built to stop the pass. That makes this a good matchup for them, as the Bucs are struggling to run the ball with Doug Martin suspended for their first 3 games. They come in ranked just 26th with 71.5 ypg. Jameis Winston still struggles with his decision making. He threw 3 interceptions last week against the Vikings. I Look for another turnover or two from Winston that shifts this game into the Giants favor. Give me New York +3 |
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10-01-17 | Rams +6.5 v. Cowboys | 35-30 | Win | 100 | 16 h 49 m | Show | |
40* NFL PUBLIC ATS ANNIHILATOR (Rams +6.5) While Dallas was able to pull away for the win and cover, I saw a lot of the same concerns that led to their blowout loss at Denver the week before. Let’s also not overlook the fact that Arizona was without arguably their best player in running back David Johnson, who the entire offense was built around. The Cardinals offensive line also was atrocious in that game. The thing is, Dallas is one of the public’s favorite teams to back right now and the books haven’t hesitated to inflate this line in their favor. While I think the Rams are gaining interest with their revamped offense under new head coach Sean McVay, the public isn’t going to go crazy for a team that is 2-1 with wins against the 49ers and Colts. I wasn’t the least bit surprised to see McVay take the weapons here and turn this into a decent offensive attack, especially with the upgrades they made at both wide receiver and on the offensive line. Goff is playing with confidence and Todd Gurley is back to being a big time impact player. I just think that Dallas defense is still a major work in progress. I still can’t get over how good they made Trevor Siemian and that Broncos offense look in week 2. I think the Rams will be able to hold their own here. The big head scratcher for the Rams is the play of the defense. A unit many thought was going to be one of the best in the NFL with the talent they had coming back and the addition of defensive coordinator Wade Phillips. So far, it’s been a shell of what we saw a year ago. I believe it’s going to get better and most importantly for this matchup, they have the talent up front to compete with that offensive line of the Cowboys and slow down their rushing attack. I actually wouldn’t be shocked if the Rams pulled off the upset here. Keep in mind they have a big time advantage in terms of time to prepare for this matchup. Due to playing on Thursday, they will have had 9 days off between games. Dallas on the other hand gets just 5 days off after playing on Monday Night Football. Give me the Rams +6.5! |
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10-01-17 | Jaguars -3 v. Jets | 20-23 | Loss | -120 | 16 h 42 m | Show | |
40* NFL NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (Jags -3) I think this Jaguars team is the real deal and while this is likely going to be the public side, I still think we are getting value with this team because of how long they have been one of the bottom feeders in the NFL. As for the Jets, I still think this is one of the worst teams in the league and that didn't change the slightest after their upset win over Miami in Week 3. Just about every team in the league gets up for their home opener. We saw it last year with the 49ers, who looked great in a 28-0 win in Week 1 and then didn't win again until Week 16. What that win does do is keep the Jaguars from overlooking this game in their first game back from London. Jacksonville is a team on a mission and I just don't see them laying an egg her in a game they know they have to win if they want to seriously make a run at a playoff spot this season. The Jaguars defense should have no problem keeping this Jets offense in check and might even help out with a big turnover or two that turns this game into a lopsided affair early. I also think it isn't sitting well that their blowout win over the Ravens is being treated more as a result of Baltimore not showing up to play and not them playing well. Give me the Jaguars -3! |
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10-01-17 | Bills v. Falcons -8 | Top | 23-17 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 40 m | Show |
100* NFL NON-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR (Falcons -8) I know this is a big number, but I really like the Falcons in this spot. Buffalo is off to a surprising 2-1 start and fresh off an upset win at home against the Broncos in Week 3. I think it has the public hesitating a bit here to Atlanta, who has a couple of wins over the Bears and Lions that weren't all that impressive. The thing is, both of those came on the road. The Falcons lone home game this season was a blowout win over the Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. Buffalo has a decent defense and was able to do enough on that side against a pretty limited Denver offense at home, where they are a much better team. I know they only lost by 6 at Carolina, but the final was 3-9. The Panthers offense was a joke in that game and has not looked good at all so far this season. Buffalo's offense was even worse and I just don't see them being able to contain this high-powered Falcons offense. I'm still convinced that the Bills are in a major rebuilding phase and aren't built to win. They simply have looked good early against a horrible Jets team, a bad Panthers offense and a Broncos team that was primed for a letdown after that big win over Dallas. I would be shocked if this is a game for long. Give me the Falcons -8 in a blowout! |
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10-01-17 | Titans -2.5 v. Texans | Top | 14-57 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 37 m | Show |
50* AFC SOUTH GAME OF THE MONTH (Titans -2.5) I've been impressed with what Deshaun Watson has been able to do for this Houston offense and his play last week in what should have been an upset of the Patriots. However, I think the way they lost that game puts them in a tough spot here against a hungry and very good Tennessee team. It's a lot easier to bounce back from a blowout loss than it is a defeat where you let a win slip through your fingers. The other big thing to keep in mind here is that Houston's offense had looked awful in their previous two games. They simply went up against a Patriots defense that might be playing as bad as any unit in the NFL. I look for this Titans defense to really make life miserable for Watson and that offense, which has a below-average offensive line. As for Tennessee's offense, I think they pose some problems for this Houston defense, which is built more to get after the quarterback than to stop the run. The Titans have a top level offensive line and running game, plus a mobile quarterback that can make plays when nothing is there. Tennessee has one goal and that's to win the division, so I don't see them laying an egg off the big win over Seattle. Give me the Titans -2.5! |
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09-30-17 | Colorado +7.5 v. UCLA | 23-27 | Win | 100 | 29 h 45 m | Show | |
40* LATE NIGHT NCAAF ATS BAILOUT (Colorado +7.5) I was on Colorado in their loss last week at Washington and they were in it up until the 4th quarter. The offense just couldn't do enough and had 3 costly turnovers. That offense won't have any problem moving the ball against UCLA, who has been nothing short of atrocious on the defensive side of the ball this year. The Bruins just gave up 58 points and 553 yards to a Stanford offense that is as one dimensional as they come right now. Through the first 4 weeks, UCLA ranks 130th against the run, giving up a ridiculous 307.5 ypg. They are also 55th against the pass, allowing 217.3 ypg. There's no reason this team should be laying more than a touchdown against a quality team like Colorado with how they play defense. I actually think there's a really good chance the Buffaloes win this game outright. The Bruins get respect because of Josh Rosen and their passing attack, but Colorado just held Jake Browning to 160 yards on a mere 11 of 21 passing. I like the defense for the Buffaloes, which is quietly sitting 40th in the country, giving up 341.8 ypg. Give me Colorado +7.5! |
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09-30-17 | South Carolina v. Texas A&M -7.5 | Top | 17-24 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 30 m | Show |
50* SEC SHARP MONEY GAME OF THE MONTH (Texas A&M -7.5) I think a lot of people will see this matchup and see some value in almost getting double-digits with South Carolina. Part of that being they don’t quite trust Texas A&M after what happened against UCLA and the other being we have seen the Gamecocks pull off a big upset against a good team with that 35-28 victory over NC State in their opener. I know we are only in Week 5, but this is not the same South Carolina team that we saw upset the Wolfpack and win big on the road at Missouri. The Gamecocks have been hit hard with the injury bug. None bigger than the loss of wide out and return specialist Deebo Samuel. He had 3 touchdowns in the win over NC State, including a 97-yard kickoff return for a score. He scored twice in a span of 15 seconds in their game against Missouri, turning a 0-10 deficit into a 14-10 lead. Keep in mind that even with his help early on, the Gamecocks come into this game with the 101st ranked offense in the country, averaging just 350.3 yards/game. Let’s also not forget they were not the better team in their win over NC State, as the Wolfpack outgained them 504 to 246 with a 29-12 edge in first downs. Clearly the offense isn’t in good shape if they can go 3 quarters and not score a point against a Louisiana Tech team from C-USA. As bad as Texas A&M’s defense looked last week against the Razorbacks, I think they will be able to slow down this South Carolina attack. Samuel isn’t the only key player out. They lost one of their best defensive players in senior linebacker Bryson Allen-Wiliams. They aren’t expected to have starting right tackle Zack Bailey and right guard Cory Helms is questionable. Starting running back Rico Dowdle is also questionable. I really like the way Texas A&M was able to win last week. That’s got a buzz back into the players and I expect this team to come out fired up for their conference home opener under the lights. True freshman Kellen Mond seems to be figuring out things as well. He threw for 216 yards and 2 scores, while also rushing for a team-high 109 yards in the win over the Razorbacks. I think he has a big day here and the Aggies get up early and pull away for a comfortable win and cover. Give me Texas A&M -7.5! |
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09-30-17 | Memphis v. Central Florida -4 | Top | 13-40 | Win | 100 | 56 h 43 m | Show |
50* AMERICAN ATHLETIC GAME OF THE MONTH (UCF -4) I really like what Scott Frost has done with this team. Last year was his first season and he took a team that went 0-12 the previous year and got them to a bowl (6-7). For those that don’t know, Frost comes over from Oregon (7 years) and brought with him that fast-tempo offense which they call “UCFast.” I think he’s a top notch coach that will could be moving on to a Power 5 program as soon as next year. I know the defense caught a break in the game against Maryland, but the offense also did their part, scoring 38 points and racking up 428 total yards. Keep in mind that’s on the road against a Power 5 program and their first game in 3 weeks. I think the fact that the Terps did lose their QB early in that game, takes away from the win, so we aren’t see much of an overreaction here. Plus, that victory fails in comparison to Memphis’ win over UCLA. I just trust this UCF team a lot more than I do the Tigers. I know it was a letdown spot, but that performance last week against Southern Illinois tells me this isn’t an elite team. Good teams aren’t losing at the half as a 30-point favorite to an FCS school. My biggest concern with Memphis is the defense, which ranks 116th in the country, giving up 483.7 ypg. That’s just not all from the UCLA game, they gave up over 400 yards to ULM in week 1 and 393 last week ago the Salukis. I have a lot of confidence in that Knights offense being able to move the ball and put up points. I also think they can get some stops defensively here, allowing them to get that separation we are looking for with the cover. Memphis is a talented offensive team, but they have played all 3 of their games at home so far. More times than not, offensive production go down on the road and I’m expecting to see that here. Even with Maryland’s QB situation, I was impressed with how they were able to shutdown the Terrapins dynamic duo out of the backfield with Lorenzo Harrison and Ty Johnson. The two had just 73 yards on 21 attempts. They had 177 on 23 attempts against Texas. Keep in mind under their new DC, Erik Chandler, the defense only gave up 24.6 ppg and 370 ypg a season ago and this program has historically been strong on that side of the ball. I think there’s a realistic chance that UCF scores 40+ in this game and wins via a blowout. Give me the Knights -4! |
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09-30-17 | Mississippi State v. Auburn UNDER 52 | 10-49 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 3 m | Show | |
40* NCAAF OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Under 52) I have been on the UNDER bandwagon each of the last two weeks with Mississippi State and cashed both times. They only reached 44 in their blowout win over LSU and the total was up close to 55. Last week we saw just 34 combined points in the loss to Georgia. I think this is another one that struggles to reach that 40-point mark, giving us a ton of value. As I’ve stated in the past, I’m a huge fan of Mississippi State’s new defensive coordinator Todd Grantham. Just look at how different Louisville is playing on the defensive side of the ball without him in charge of the unit this year. I know the performance against Georgia wasn’t great, but I believe it was more of the Bulldogs’ players getting some big heads after that win over LSU. I didn’t see the same intensity and fight on defense against the Bulldogs. I have a hard time believing that Dan Mullen will let that kind of effort happen in back-to-back games. I look for an inspired effort here from the Mississippi State defense. Sure Auburn put up 51 points last week against Missouri, but if you have really watched this team you know there’s major concerns with the offense. They had a whopping 117 total yards against Clemson (BC had 238 against the Tigers last week). It’s also not like Missouri has a good defense or is any good in general. They gave up 31 in a 18-pt loss to South Carolina and 35 in a 32-pt loss to Purdue. Both of which were on their home field. One thing we can be sure about with Auburn is their defense. The Tigers were outstanding on that side of the ball last year, allowing just 17.1 ppg and 362 ypg. They returned 7 starters to that unit and through 4 games are allowing 11.2 ppg and 237 ypg. After how Mississippi State struggled against another elite defense in Georgia, hard to see them scoring a ton here. I wouldn’t be shocked if either team got to 20 points and certainly don’t see both offenses having a big day in this one. UNDER is a rock solid 38-18 in the Bulldogs last 56 games with a total between 49.5 and 56 points. UNDER is also a perfect 6-0 in Auburn’s last 6 games following a contest in which they combined for 60 or more points. Give me the UNDER 52! |
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09-30-17 | Iowa v. Michigan State -4 | 10-17 | Win | 100 | 22 h 28 m | Show | |
40* NCAAB BIG TEN GAME OF THE WEEK (Mich St -4) I’m going to take Michigan State minus the points at home over the Iowa Hawkeyes. I think a lot of people could be drawn to Iowa after they nearly upset Penn State in a crushing 19-21 loss at home, while Michigan State lost by 20 at home to Notre Dame. It’s a lot harder to bounce back from a blowout loss than it is a gut-wrenching defeat like the Hawkeyes suffered last week. You also have to factor in how big of a game that was and it being a nationally televised night game. That’s was Iowa’s chance to prove to everyone they are for real and they let the opportunity slip by. I’m not saying Michigan State wasn’t equally up for their home game against Notre Dame last week. I just like the fact we have a Mark Dantonio coached team off an embarrassing loss at home, playing at home against an Iowa team that is getting some love from their near upset. I also think the loss to the Irish isn’t as bad as some people think. Notre Dame is one of the elite teams in the country. Iowa had no business even being in that game against the Nittany Lions. The Hawkeyes had 273 total yards for the game to Penn State’s 579 (Iowa had just 61 total yards in 1st half). They ran a mere 45 plays to Penn State’s 99 and were out first downed 29 to 11. That could have just as easily been a game they lost by 40. In comparison the Spartans outgained Notre Dame 495 to 355 in their 20-point loss. That game really took a turn for the worse early when Brian Lewerke threw an interception that was returned 59 yards for a touchdown. Instead of Michigan State potentially driving to make it 7-7, they are down 14-0 less than 5 minutes into the game. Even with that loss last week, Michigan State is 56–18 at home since 2007. I just think it’s asking too much for Iowa to make this a game on the road. I also think people are still sleeping on this Spartan team after that 3-9 finish a year ago. I know it’s early, but they rank 36th in total offense and 9th in total defense. In comparison, Iowa ranks 93rd in total offense and 78th in total defense and have had the easier schedule. I think we look back at this one and realize this should have been closer to a touchdown. Give me Michigan State -4! |
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09-30-17 | Central Michigan v. Boston College -10 | 8-28 | Win | 100 | 19 h 3 m | Show | |
40* NCAAF BLOCKBUSTER BOOKIE KNOCKOUT (Boston College -10) I think it’s worth the risk here to lay the points with the Eagles. This is one of the better 1-3 teams you will find in the country. Not many teams play two of the best teams in the country in their first four. That’s what BC did the last two weeks with games against Notre Dame and Clemson. The 24-point loss at home to Wake Forest is one that makes this team look worse than it is. The Demon Deacons aren’t considered a very good team, but are off to an impressive 4-0 start. The lone win came against Northern Illinois, who has a victory of their own against Nebraska. Some teams might not show up after a stretch like BC has had, but not a Steve Addazio coached team. I expect the Eagles to take full advantage of this opportunity to beat up on someone else. This should feel like a walk in the park after the talent they have had to go up against the past two weeks. I also think we have seen enough from this Central Michigan team to know that it’s a team the Eagles can move the ball against. That’s really the big key with BC, as the defense has been a strength for years. The Chippewas haven’t held a team under 27 points. They could have easily lost at home to Rhode Island in their opener and got smoked by Syracuse. This just isn’t the same caliber a Central Michigan team as previous years, as they lost a big time talent QB in Cooper Rush. Michigan transfer Shane Morris only looked good against Kansas (467 yards, 5 TDs) and I see him struggling against this Eagles defense. What will scare a lot of people off of this game, is Boston College’s starting QB, Anthony Brown is questionable. Even if he doesn’t play, I think they will have success offensively. Keep in mind backup Darius Wade has experience an has seen action in each of the last 3 games. Whoever starts will be able to take advantage of a Chippewas defense that is ranked 93rd against the run (183 ypg) and 110th vs the pass (275.8 ypg). That’s with only two games against Power 5 teams and those two being Kansas and Syracuse. Give me the Eagles -10! |
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09-30-17 | Syracuse v. NC State -14 | 25-33 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 15 m | Show | |
40* NCAAF NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (NC State -14) A lot of people were high on this team coming into the season. Many thought they were a sleeper in the ACC Atlantic. A 28-35 loss at home to South Carolina in their opener quickly put that hype to rest. The thing is, they were the better team in that game. They outgained the Gamecocks 504-246 and had a 29-12 edge in first downs. They have looked the part of that sleeper team since that loss, but I don’t think people trust them just yet. They credit that win to Florida State not having their starting QB. The Seminoles’ James Blackmon went 22 of 38 for 278 yards with a 1-0 TD-INT ratio. It’s not like they got horrible QB play and that’s why NC State won. It wasn’t even a big enough win to get them in the Top 25. I don’t think that sits well with this team and they come out looking to make a statement against Syracuse. I like the potential of the Orange under 2nd year head coach Dino Babers. I think they would have been a much bigger dog here had it not been for them keeping it close at LSU last week. Keep in mind they were getting more than 3 TD’s at LSU and are now laying getting less than 2 against a team that might be just as good, or even better. That is the same LSU team that got embarrassed by a Mississippi State team that couldn’t hang with Georgia. At the same time, it’s not like Syracuse was all that impressive in their first 3 games. They lost at home to Middle Tennessee, who was outscored 62-9 in two games against Vanderbilt and Minnesota. They did beat Central Michigan by 24, but the Chippewas need OT to beat Rhode Island at home. Last year each of Syracuse’s 8 losses were by 15 or more and they really struggled to keep it close against the top teams in the ACC. I just think the Orange are going to run in a buzz saw here with that dominant defensive line of NC State. Keep in mins that Syracuse likes to play fast and if the offense isn’t working, things tend to get ugly in a hurry. We should also feel confident that NC State is able to move the ball against this Orange defense. Syracuse’s weakness is their pass defense, which just let LSU throw for more than 300 yards. The passing game is the strength of the NC State offense. The Wolfpack are just 87th in rushing (146.3 ypg) compared to 15th in pass (314.8 ypg). Give me NC State -14! |
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09-29-17 | USC -6 v. Washington State | Top | 27-30 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
50* NCAAF VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (USC -6) I think we are going to see a similar type of dominance here by USC to that of their blowout win at home over Stanford back in Week 2. A game they were only favored in by 3.5-points after struggling to take care of Western Michigan on the road. They failed to cover at Cal last week, but that was an awful spot for USC off two huge games against Stanford and Texas and they could have easily covered. This team is one of the best in the country and are on full alert of how good this Washington State team is. As big of an advantage as it is playing at home in these weekday night games, I think the Cougars are simply outclassed on the field. They are one dimensional offensively and the Trojans have the pass rushers and playmakers in the secondary to make life miserable for Washington State's Luke Falk. Give me the Trojans -6! |
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09-28-17 | Bears +7.5 v. Packers | 14-35 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 37 m | Show | |
40* BEARS/PACKERS BLOCKBUSTER BOOKIE KNOCKOUT (Bears +7.5) The Packers have been decimated at the offensive tackle spot. Both starters are doubtful for this game and they have three others on IR. It’s really limited this Green Bay offense, who hasn’t been able to get anything going on the ground and has struggled to give Rodgers the time needed to attack teams through the air. The Packers managed just 64 yards rushing against Cincinnati last week and only had 59 the previous week against the Falcons. It’s unlikely they get anything going here, as the Bears come in ranked 8th in the NFL against the run, allowing just 83.7 ypg. Last week they held Le’Veon Bell and the Steelers to just 70 yards. They also sacked Ben Roethlisberger 3 times, limiting him to just 22 of 39 passing. I think it’s going to be hard for Green Bay to create the separation needed to cover a big spread like this. Let’s also not overlook how well Chicago has played early on this year. They were right there with the Falcons at home in Week 1 and just beat a really good Steelers team. They did get blowout on the road against the Bucs in Week 2, but that wasn’t as bad as the 29-7 final would suggest. Chicago was basically even in total yards, but were done in by 4 turnovers. Something else that can’t be overlooked is the Green Bay defense letting a Bengals offense that couldn’t do anything the first two weeks move the ball with some success. I’m not saying the Bears are going to score at will here, but they should be able to sustain some drives and most importantly finish them with points on the scoreboard. Bears head coach John Fox has a history of getting his teams’ to play well on the road against division opponents. In fact, he’s an impressive 31-13 ATS in this spot over his NFL head coaching career. Fox is also a strong 14-4 ATS in road games against teams that struggle to run the ball, averaging 90 or less yards/game. Give me the Bears +7.5! |
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09-28-17 | Texas v. Iowa State OVER 63.5 | Top | 17-7 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 58 m | Show |
50* TEXAS/ISU BIG 12 PLAY OF THE MONTH (OVER 63.5) I know these two have struggled to put up points in the last two meetings, but I think we in store for a shootout tonight in Ames. Matt Campbell is in year two with ISU and has the offense ranked 42nd in the country, which is no surprise given what he was able to do at Toledo, which averaged 35 ppg and 461 ypg in his final year. He's got the passing attack working for the Cyclones, as they come in ranked 18th in the country. The game that really stands out to me as a sign that this one will see a lot of scoring is Iowa State's game against in-state rival Iowa. The two combined for 85 points with each scoring in the 40s. That's a very limited Iowa offense who could struggled to get first downs last week against Penn State. Texas has some playmakers on offense and are only going to keep getting better offensively under first year head coach Tom Herman. I'm willing to bet they come out sharp here off a bye. The key here is that I trust this Cyclones offense to do their part and push this one over the mark. Especially with this game being at home. Texas' defense is still a work in progress and we saw them give up 50 in their opener at home to Maryland. The defense was better against USC, but some of that was the Trojans not coming out sharp off a big road game against Stanford. I look for a lot of big plays and quick scores by both sides. Give me the OVER 63.5! |
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09-25-17 | Cowboys v. Cardinals +3.5 | Top | 28-17 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 0 m | Show |
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Cardinals +3.5) I like Arizona here at this price against a Dallas team that I think is getting a little too much respect on the road. The Cardinals 1-1 start doesn't look good on paper and the hype around this team took a big hit when David Johnson landed on IR. I still think there's a ton of talent on the roster and see this team coming out with a chip on their shoulder in what will be their home opener. Dallas on the other hand is playing their second straight on the road after getting rolled last week in Denver. I think Arizona's defense being able to slow down the Cowboys ground game, much like the Broncos did last week will be the key here to the Cardinals not only covering the spread but winning this game outright. Give me the Cardinals +3.5! |
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09-24-17 | Bengals +8 v. Packers | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 40 h 33 m | Show | |
40* NFL UNDERDOG PLAY OF THE WEEK (Bengals +8) The biggest issue I have with this spread is Green Bay’s injury situation on offense. Multiple members of the offensive line are banged up, as are Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb. Those injuries clearly played a role in last week’s struggles against the Falcons and it remains to be seen how healthy and effective any of those injured players will be against the Bengals. One thing that’s been lost in the shuffle of Cincinnati’s disastrous start to the season is that the Bengals have actually played solid defense the first two weeks. Considering how little support the offense has provided, the Bengals giving up just 33 points over two games is rather impressive. Geno Atkins already has three sacks on the season, and I would expect he and the team’s other pass-rushing threats will be able to create some problems against a banged up Green Bay offensive line. Obviously, the Bengals actually being able to locate the end zone will be important to the Bengals being able to beat the spread. But if Cincinnati can keep feeding A.J. Green the ball as much as possible, he’s bound to make something positive happen. I also don’t see the Packers having an easy time moving the ball either. This could end up being a low-scoring game that helps Cincinnati stay close and beat the spread. |
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09-24-17 | Seahawks v. Titans UNDER 42 | 27-33 | Loss | -117 | 39 h 13 m | Show | |
40* NFL OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Under 42) Seattle’s defense has the same feel as the one that routinely finished near the top of the league in defensive metrics. In Week 1 they kept Aaron Rogers and the Packers offense off the scoreboard until the final second of the 3rd quarter. Last week they allowed a mere 3 field goals and 248 yards to the 49ers, basically winning them the game. While the defense has been playing lights out, the offense has been hard to watch. Seattle could only muster 225 yards against Green Bay in Week 1, a number that looks a lot worse after watching Matt Ryan and the Falcons pick apart the Packer defense in Week 2. Like we see with a lot of the teams struggling offensively early on in 2017, the offensive line is the main culprit for the struggles. Seattle has put very little resources into their offensive line and lost their starting left tackle before the season ever started. They do seem to eventually figure it out up front, but I don’t see it happening this week against a stingy Titans defense that is very strong up front. Last year Tennessee was 2nd in the NFL agains the run, allowing just 88.3 ypg. They upgraded the secondary in the offseason and should post better numbers overall. Another thing I like here is that Seattle’s Russell Wilson and Tennessee’s Marcus Mariota are two very similar quarterbacks. Both rely a lot on their mobility to extend plays. That’s not easy to prepare for, but it should be for these two teams, given they go against their own mobile quarterback in practice. I just don’t see either team reaching 20 points, unless we have a bunch of non-offensive touchdowns. I’ll take my chances on that not being the case. UNDER is 9-1 in the Seahawks 10 road games under Pete Carroll, where they come in having scored 17 points or less in 2 straight games. The average final score in these games was a mere 32.5 and half points, giving us a full 10-points of value here. |
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09-24-17 | Falcons -3 v. Lions | 30-26 | Win | 100 | 36 h 55 m | Show | |
40* NFL BLOCKBUSTER BOOKIE KNOCKOUT (Falcons -3) I'll be the first to admit that I wasn't expecting a lot out of the Falcons this season coming into the year, but I really like what I have seen in the first two weeks and like the value here with Atlanta laying just a field goal on the road against a Lions team that has benefited from playing a couple teams with horrible offensive line play in the Cardinals and Giants. I just think Detroit's defense is getting way too much respect against this high-powered Atlanta offense and while the Lions will score, I don't see them scoring enough to keep this game close. Teams listed as a dog that have allowed 75 or fewer rushing yards in their first two games are 34-11 ATS the last 5 seasons. Give me the Falcons -3! |
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09-24-17 | Giants +6.5 v. Eagles | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 36 h 54 m | Show | |
40* NFL PUBLIC ATS ANNIHILATOR (Giants +6.5) I know New York hasn’t looked good in their first two games, but there is still a ton of talent on this roster. I fully expect the Giants to make some adjustments with their offensive line and make sure that Eli Manning gets some protection. It’s also going to help that Odell Beckham Jr will be another week removed from his ankle injury. He was clearly not 100% last week against the Lion. He caught just 4 passes for 36 yards. Look for a much bigger game out of him. I also like what I’m hearing about New York making a move to Orleans Darkwa at running back. He’s impressed in limited action and any improvement with their ground attack will help the passing game get going. This is also a hurting Eagles defense right now. They aren’t expected to have their top corner in Ronald Darby for 4-6 weeks to start the year. They could also be without starting defensive end Brandon Graham, who is questionable with a hamstring injury. Philadelphia also has starting safety Rodney McLeod and backup Jaylen Watkins listed as questionable with hamstring injuries. What you can’t forget with the Giants is that while the offense isn’t performing up to their potential, they still have one of the leagues top defenses. One that I think really matchups up well with an Eagles offense that struggles to run the ball. At the same time, Carson Wentz is a QB that likes to take chances and will turn the ball over. Keep in mind the Eagles had just 13-points against a Chiefs defense missing one of it’s best players in Eric Berry up until the final seconds when they added a late TD. I’m not saying the Giants win outright, but given how desperate they are to avoid an 0-3 start and the defenses ability to keep them in the game, I would have to take the points in this one. |
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09-24-17 | Bucs -2.5 v. Vikings | Top | 17-34 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 58 m | Show |
50* NFC GAME OF THE MONTH (Bucs -2.5) I don't think the public is quite on par with how good this Bucs team is and I just see too much value here with Tampa laying less than a field goal with Minnesota missing starting quarterback Sam Bradford. Case Keenum was terrible in place of Bradford last week against the Steelers, completing just 20 of 37 for 167 yards (4.5 yards/attempt). He's just good enough to get the job done here against a stingy Bucs defense. I also really like this Tampa Bay offense. The addition of DeSean Jackson really opens up the offense, as you have to worry about him going deep and at the same time you have one of the elite wide outs on the other side in Mike Evans. As long as Winston takes care of the football, Tampa should have no problem securing a win here. Give me the Bucs -2.5! |
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09-23-17 | Washington v. Colorado +12 | Top | 37-10 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 1 m | Show |
50* NCAAF PAC-12 GAME OF THE MONTH (Colorado +12) I think this line is one the public will jump on Washington. Given what happened in last year’s title game and the fact that this is short number for a Top 10 team to be laying against an unranked opponent. That tells me the oddsmakers like this Colorado team to hang tough and so do I. Revenge is a big time motivator on the collegiate level and this is the game that Colorado had circled on their schedule. It’s one thing to lose a close game. It’s another to get embarrassed like they did in the Pac-12 title game. Expect a fired up Buffaloes team that isn’t just coming into to keep it close, but win this game outright. Washington is a talented team and a program that is headed in the right direction under Chris Petersen. I just don’t know that they aren’t getting a little too much respect off of last year’s trip to the playoffs. Especially on the road against what I think is a really good Colorado team. People aren't giving the Buffaloes the respect they deserve. I don’t blame them. It’s hard to trust a team that's been horrible for so many years. Prior to last year’s shocking 10-4 finish, Colorado hadn’t qualified for a bowl (6 wins) since 2007. Head coach Mike MacIntyre has done this before. Taking a miserable San Jose State program to a 12-win season in his 3rd year on the job. He’s finally recruited enough talent (had very little to work with when he got here) to compete and would expect them to be a threat in the Pac-12 going forward. I also think we have seen some concerning signs for Washington, despite a lot of blowout wins. Their opener against Rutgers was a lot more competitive than the final score would indicate. The Huskies only outgained the Scarlet Knights 368-369. The other big concern with Washington is their running game. The Huskies rank 96th in the country in rushing at just 129.7 ypg. That’s with them rushing for 213 yards against Montana. They had just 84 yards rushing against Rutgers and a mere 92 against Fresno State. That puts a lot of pressure on Jake Browning to do it all for the offense, which isn’t easy on the road. I really think this is a game that Colorado can pull off the upset. Keep in mind that they went a perfect 6-0 at home last year. That included wins against two ranked teams. Add in the double-digit spread to work with and it certainly feels like the right side. Give me the Buffaloes +12! |
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09-23-17 | Mississippi State v. Georgia UNDER 48 | 3-31 | Win | 100 | 25 h 9 m | Show | |
40* NCAAF VEGAS OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Under 48) I cashed in on Missisippi St/LSU UNDER last week and love the UNDER again with Mississippi State taking on Georgia. As mentioned in last week's write-up, this is a different Mississippi State defense under Todd Grantham and a far superior defense than the Notre Dame defense that held Georgia to just 20 points. Speaking of that game against the Irish, Georgia held Notre Dame to just 266 total yards. That's impressive given that the Irish had 606 yards in their opener against Temple and just put another 611 yards on the road against an always strong Boston College defense. This has a grind it out low-scoring game where both sides struggle to get 20 points. Give me the UNDER 48! |
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09-23-17 | Akron v. Troy -15.5 | 17-22 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 57 m | Show | |
40* NCAAF BLOCKBUSTER BOOKIE ATS KNOCKOUT (Troy -15.5) Troy hasn't covered the spread yet in 2017 (0-3) and I just think it has them way undervalued here against an Akron team that isn't any good. The Zips list 52-0 at Penn State to open the year and that was 35-0 at the half. Last week they lost at home to an Iowa State team that will be lucky to make a bowl by a final of 41-14. The Trojans slow start has a lot to do with them having played on the road against a very good Boise State team and another road game last week against an up and coming New Mexico State team that held their own on the road against Arizona State. Troy's due for a breakout performance and I feel like this is the perfect spot for them to lay a beating on the Zips. Give me the Trojans -15.5! |
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09-23-17 | Michigan -10 v. Purdue | Top | 28-10 | Win | 100 | 22 h 18 m | Show |
100* BIG TEN GAME OF THE YEAR (Michigan -10) I can’t say enough about how impressive a job Brohm has done in such a short period of time with the Boilermakers. I could see why people would be tempted to take Purdue here at home, given how well they have played and Michigan not playing all that great the first few weeks. I just think it’s asking a lot of the Boilermakers to keep it within single-digits here against the Wolverines. Not to take anything away from Purdue, but I think we are seeing a bit of an overreaction here with this line. I believe most would have had this line closer to 21 than 10 prior to the season starting. I think the Boilermakers offense is going to be in for a rude awakening in this one. While the offense hasn’t performed up to expectation, the Wolverine defense has been outstanding once again. Michigan ranks 9th against the run (82.3 ypg) and 12th against the pass (125.7 ypg). While Purdue has played some good teams, the best defense they have faced statistically is Ohio, which ranks 66th and that’s with them allowing a mere 108 yards in a 59-0 win over Hampton in their opener. As for the offensive struggles for Michigan, it’s really been about their inability to finish drives in the red-zone. They have been the worst in the country in converting red-zone trips into touchdowns. Last week they had 4 trips inside the 20 and all 4 times had to settle for field goals. That’s definitely a concern, but I just think a team as well-coached as the Wolverines will figure it out and once they do, look out. A big key to this one could be Purdue’s offense not being able to sustain drives, which in turn will have their defense on the field for long stretches and likely out of gas come the 2nd half. I also don’t think that Harbaugh will allow Michigan to overlook Purdue given how strong the Boilermakers have started and how poorly the Wolverines have played. With a bye week on deck, there’s no excuse for Michigan to not lay it all on the line. Give me the Wolverines -10! |
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09-23-17 | Miami-OH -1 v. Central Michigan | 31-14 | Win | 100 | 21 h 28 m | Show | |
40* NCAAF SMALL CONFERENCE ATS BLOODBATH (Miami, OH -1) Love the RedHawks in this spot. Miami has gotten off to a disappointing 1-2 start, which makes this game feel like one they have to have. I don't think there's any question they are the better team and feel this line would have been closer to 7 if Miami's first few games would have gone a little differently. They lost by 5 at Marshall in their opener and that was with the Thundering Herd scoring 3 non-offensive touchdowns. They then blew a big lead late against Cincinnati last week. Central Michigan has a 17-41 loss to Syracuse and needed OT to beat Rhode Island at home. These two played last year and Miami won 37-17. The RedHawks have 17 returning starters from that team and should have no problem pulling out the victory. Give me Miami (OH) -1! |
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09-22-17 | Utah -3.5 v. Arizona | Top | 30-24 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
50* UTAH/ARIZONA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY Utah over recent years has been a team built on a more conservative rushing approach. They are really opening it up this year under new offensive coordinator Troy Taylor, who had Eastern Washington averaging 42 ppg and 530 ypg last year. Sophomore Tyler Huntley has really turned heads with his play on the field, as he's got the looks of one of the country's top dual threat QBs. He's completed 72.1% of his attempts for 868 yards, while also rushing for a team-high 212 yards and 3 scores. He’s really enjoyed the addition of wide out Darren Carrington II, who transferred in from Oregon. Carrington all ready has 26 catches for 409 yards and 4 scores. The former Duck went as far as to compare Huntley to a young Marcus Mariota, who he played with. They just entered the Top 25 this week (had been ranked No. 22 last week in the coaches poll). I just don’t think the public or the books have quite caught on to how good this team is. I know it’s early, but they rank 39th in total offense and 12th in total defense. The big key here for more is the Utes run defense, which is 2nd in the country, allowing just 49.3 yards/game. Arizona really needs to be able to run the ball to have any success offensively. In their two wins they have 506 rushing yards against Northern Arizona and 326 against UTEP. In their loss to Houston, they had just 152. Give me the Utes -3.5! |
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09-21-17 | Rams v. 49ers OVER 39 | Top | 41-39 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
50* RAMS/49ERS NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (OVER 39) I believe a big reason for this low total is a result of how the 49ers first two games have gone. San Francisco’s first two games combined only add up to 47 points, as they have scored a mere 12-points in 2 games. The thing is, they have went up against two of the best defenses in the NFL in the Seahawks and Panthers. Also two teams who are struggling offensively because of poor offensive line play. While the Rams are considered to have a good defense, I don’t think they are on the same level as the Seahawks and Panthers. They were great against the Colts, but I feel that was more a byproduct of Scott Tolzien. They weren’t nearly as good agains the Redskins. The stat that sticks out is Washington’s 229 rushing yards on 39 attempts (5.9 yards/carry). That’s good news for a 49ers offense that needs to be able to run the ball to have success. I also think they will be able to generate a few more big plays through the air in this one. As for the Rams offense, I like what I’m seeing in the first year under McVay. I really think it’s a unit that is only going to keep getting better, as they are still adjusting to a new scheme and several new pieces. Give me the OVER 39! |
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09-18-17 | Lions v. Giants UNDER 42.5 | Top | 24-10 | Win | 100 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
40* LIONS/GIANTS MNF OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Under 42.5) Two good quarterbacks here in Stafford and Manning, but I don't see either offense doing much in this one. The concerns with the Giants offense are even worse after watching how the Broncos picked apart the Cowboys defense. Even if Beckham Jr. suits up, I still think NY has a tough time moving the ball with the problems they have on the o-line and the inability to run the ball. On the flip side of this, I love this Giants defense and with the team desperate to avoid an 0-2 start and the game at home, I think they shutdown Stafford here. Keep in mind these two teams played late last year and combined for 23 points. Give me the UNDER 42.5! |
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09-17-17 | Packers v. Falcons OVER 55.5 | 23-34 | Win | 100 | 47 h 36 m | Show | |
40* PACKERS/FALCONS SNF TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Over 55.5) These two teams played twice last year. Once in the regular season and again in the NFC Championship Game. Both teams they combined for 60+ points. I'll take my chances on another shootout in Atlanta, as we got two of the best offenses in the league here behind two of the best QB's in Aaron Rodgers and Matt Ryan. Both of these teams will be eager to get the offense going after a sub-par showing in Week 1. Green Bay's slow start was to be expected against Seattle and I wasn't surprised at all to see the Falcons struggle in Chicago, which isn't a great field for offenses like Atlanta that rely on speed. I'm also not buying the Packers defense being as good as it looked against the Seahawks, as Seattle's offensive line is a joke. As for the Falcons, Matt Glennon moved the ball on them, so there's no reason to think Rodgers won't do the same. Give me the OVER 55.5! |
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09-17-17 | Redskins v. Rams -2.5 | Top | 27-20 | Loss | -119 | 43 h 1 m | Show |
50* NFC VEGAS ATS GAME OF THE MONTH (Rams -2.5) As most of you know, I’m big on the Rams this year. They were my favorite win total bet at OVER 5.5. They absolutely dominated the Colts in a 46-9 home win. Washington on the other hand looked bad in a 17-30 home loss to Philadelphia. An Eagles team they had won 5 straight against. You don’t want to overreact to Week 1, but I think it’s pretty clear what direction these two teams are headed in 2017. I actually think we are going to look back at this line later in the season and realize it should have been closer to a TD. That’s how high I am on LA and how down I am on Washington. The crazy thing is my perception of both teams has to do with the same guy. That’s new Rams head coach Sean McVay, who was responsible for turning the Redskins offensive attack into one of the best in the NFL with Kirk Cousins as his starting QB. Without McVay calling the shots, Washington’s offense managed just 10 points and only 264 total yards in Week 1 against the Eagles. Not to mention they had 4 turnovers. That’s an offense that ranked 3rd in the NFL last year at 403.4 ypg. Cousins had just 240 yards on 58% passing. The Rams offense was responsible for 30 of the 46 points and had 373 yards. Goff looked like a completely different QB in McVay’s offense going 21 of 29 for 306 yards and Todd Gurley was at least a factor. The defense also limited the Colts to just 9 points and 225 total yards without their best player in Aaron Donald, who figures to be back this week. Give me the Rams -2.5! |
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09-17-17 | Cardinals v. Colts OVER 44 | 16-13 | Loss | -110 | 40 h 36 m | Show | |
40* NFL OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Over 44) I was on the OVER in last weeks Colts/Rams game and a lot of that had to do with Indianapolis' defense being one of the worst in the league. The key here is we are getting a low total because of the fact that Arizona lost star RB David Johnson. The thing is, Carson Palmer has the weapons to attack a banged up Colts secondary, which is missing their best corner in Vontae Davis. I could see Arizona putting up a big number here, similar to what the Rams did last week. Keep in mind LA only had 63 rushing yards in that game, so the loss of Johnson just isn't that important here. As for the Colts offense, I expect a much better showing at home and now that Jacoby Brissett is starting over the awful Scott Tolzien. I think this total should be closer to 54 not 44. Give me the OVER 44! |
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09-17-17 | Bills v. Panthers -7 | 3-9 | Loss | -110 | 39 h 28 m | Show | |
40* NFL BLOCKBUSTER BOOKIE BLOWOUT (Panthers -7) I'm big on Carolina this season, as I think we are going to see them jump right back into being near the top of the NFC. I really like the decision to keep Newton from running and use the backs more. They couldn't have looked much better on the road against the 49ers in Week 1. Buffalo also got a win and cover, but against the worst team in the league and that was a close game going into the 4th quarter. Luke Keuchley and the Panthers defense will be able to take away the Bills strength, which is their running game. That's going to allow Carolina to open this thing up and win here by double-digits. Give me the Panthers -7! |
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09-17-17 | Patriots -6 v. Saints | 36-20 | Win | 100 | 39 h 58 m | Show | |
40* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY ATS ANNIHILATOR (Patriots -6) I have a rule of thumb and that’s not to bet against Belichick and Brady off a loss, so as bad as it looked against KC, I'm riding them against the Saints. New England is 45-11 SU off a loss since 2001 and are 38-17-1 ATS in this spot, which is almost a 70% win rate against the number. The average win in this spot has been by 11 points. Losing the weapons at wide receiver and the likes of Hightower on defense would be enough for more to fade just about any other team in the league. Belichick is on a different level and will figure out some game plan that leads to a win. Just look at what he did last year with Jacoby Brissett against the Texans when Brady was suspended. I also think people aren’t giving enough credit to the Chiefs for their struggles. KC has played the Pats tough since Andy Reid came to the Chiefs. They made them look equally bad back in 2014 on MNF when they won 41-14 which was the game Brady got benched and the dynasty was over. They won the SB that year and the very next week destroyed the 3-0 Bengals 43-17. Give me the Patriots -6! |
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09-16-17 | Texas +16 v. USC | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 27 h 9 m | Show | |
40* PRIME TIME NCAAF PUBLIC ANNIHILATOR (Texas +16) It's amazing how quickly everyone jumped off the Texas bandwagon after they got upset as a big favorite at home in their opener against Maryland. The Longhorns responded to that loss as well as you could, crushing San Jose State 56-0 with a ridiculous 623 to 171 edge in total yards and 32-8 advantage in first downs. I think the public would be on them against just about anyone than USC, who just routed Stanford. The Trojans are good, but this is a ton of points for a team coming off as big as win as USC is. They had that game against Stanford circled on the calendar after losing to them last year. We already saw the Trojans not bring it all against Western Michigan, allowing the Broncos to hang around in the 4th quarter. Texas has enough offense to make this a game. Give me the Longhorns +16! |
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09-16-17 | Clemson v. Louisville OVER 58 | 47-21 | Win | 100 | 26 h 26 m | Show | |
40* NCAAF BLOCKBUST TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Over 58) I think the total here is way too low and it's a result of Clemson just playing a game against Auburn where 20 total points were scored in the 14-6 win over Auburn. The thing is Auburn doesn't have a dual threat named Lamar Jackson, who is the most difficult player in college football. Keep in mind Clemson's defense looked great last year in a 19-13 win at Auburn and had no answer for Jackson at home just a few games later. With this game in Louisville under the lights, I think Jackson shines. He's going to have to, cause the Cardinals defense is not the same without the services of defensive coordinator Todd Grantham (now at Miss St). They let both Purdue and UNC move the ball with ease. Clemson will do the same. I think both teams get to 30 and for those wondering they combined for 78 points last year. Give me the OVER 58! |
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09-16-17 | Rice v. Houston -22.5 | 3-38 | Win | 100 | 26 h 23 m | Show | |
40* NCAAF BIG FAVORITE ATS BLOWOUT (Houston -22.5) I really like the Cougars here. Houston is a team that I think is flying under the radar this season, as everyone has written them off after Todd Herman left to take over at Texas. There's a ton of talent still on this Houston team. That includes possibly the best defensive player in the country in defensive tackle Ed Oliver, who makes everyone around him better by his ability to live in the opponents backfield. The offense added Texas A&M transfer and former 5* QB recruit Kyle Allen to ease the loss of Greg Ward. Rice is a bad team that has struggled to adjust to the new era of spread offenses and were also no match against Stanford in the opener giving up more than 600 yards. I see the Cougars putting this away early and coasting to a win and cover. Give me Houston -22.5! |
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09-16-17 | Idaho v. Western Michigan -20.5 | Top | 28-37 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 32 m | Show |
50* NCAAF VEGAS LINE MISTAKE OF THE WEEK (W Michigan -20.5) I have really been impressed with Western Michigan, as they have come out of the gates swinging and hung in there with both USC and Michigan State. Know one expected anything out of this team after P.J. Fleck left, but there's a ton of talent on this roster. Idaho was far from impressive in a 28-6 win against Sacramento State and then lost at home 16-44 to a UNLV team that lost 40-43 in Week 1 to Howard in the biggest upset in CFB history (based on spread). The Broncos aren't going to take this likely after their 0-2 start and this will feel like a walk in the park after the talent they have faced. Give me Western Michigan -20.5! |
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09-16-17 | LSU v. Mississippi State UNDER 55.5 | Top | 7-37 | Win | 100 | 25 h 28 m | Show |
100* SEC FOOTBALL TOTAL OF THE YEAR (Under 55.5) What’s getting overlooked is how well these two teams are playing on defense. LSU held BYU to a mere 97 yards and 6 first downs in their opener and the Bulldogs limited Charleston Southern to 33 yards and 2 first downs in their opener. The Tigers followed it up by allowing just 242 yards to Chattanooga and Mississippi State really shutdown a high-powered Louisiana Tech offense. Had it not been for an interception that set up a 2-yard TD drive, the Bulldogs would have led 57-8 going into the 4th quarter. Now LSU having an elite defense shouldn’t be a big surprise. They only gave up 15.8 ppg last year in the first season under defensive coordinator Dave Aranda. Note that the Tigers held Alabama to 10 points. The only time all season the Crimson Tide failed to score at least 30. I think we are seeing a similar type of impact with a new DC at Mississippi State, who added in Todd Grantham, one of the more respected defensive minds in the game. I just don’t see either offense being able to do much of anything in this one and when a team does put together a drive, I look for them to struggle to find the end zone. Give me the UNDER 55.5 |
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09-16-17 | Northern Illinois +13 v. Nebraska | 21-17 | Win | 100 | 19 h 31 m | Show | |
40* NCAAF UNDER ATS SHOCKER (Northern Illinois +13) This is a game that I wouldn't be surprised if the dog won outright. Northern Illinois has been down the past couple of seasons, but this is one of the top 'Group of 5' programs and they have already proven themselves against Boston College out of the ACC, nearly beating the Eagles on the road. Key here is Nebraska is primed for a letdown after the game against the Ducks last week in Oregon and homecoming/Big Ten opener on deck. The other key here is Nebraska's defense has been bad. They gave up 36 points and nearly 500 yards to Arkansas St out of the Sun Belt in their opener (outgained on the game). Northern Illinois is only giving up 104 ypg and 2.2 yards/carry against the run. If they can keep Nebraska from running all over, they will be in this thing until the end. Give me the Huskies +13! |
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09-16-17 | Air Force +23 v. Michigan | 13-29 | Win | 100 | 19 h 30 m | Show | |
40* NCAAF EARLY BIRD PUBLIC BLOODBATH (Air Force +23) I think this is too many points for Michigan to be laying at home. Air Force runs the triple-option and while the Wolverines defense has played well early, I could see them struggling against this attack. The other thing with the option offense is that it leads to a lot of drives that eat up clock and an even bigger key here is that the Wolverines can keep the Falcons from finishing those drives with touchdowns. Michigan's offense hasn't exactly looked great to start and I think they struggle to find a rhythm here. Also not a great spot against Michigan, as this is the easiest game in the first 4 before their bye, as they open up conference play next week. Give me the Falcons +23! |
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09-15-17 | Arizona -23 v. UTEP | Top | 63-16 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
50* NCAAF WEEKDAY PLAY OF THE MONTH (Arizona -23) I know 23-points is a lot to lay on the road, but I don't think it's near enough for the gap in talent between these two teams. I'm not the least bit concerned with Arizona's poor showing last week against Houston. In fact, I had the Cougars in that one. The Miners are one of the worst teams in the FBS. They got rolled 56-7 by Oklahoma and that was with the Sooners having a massive lookahead game to Ohio State. They followed it up by losing 14-31 at home to Rice of all teams, who you might recall got absolutely destroyed by Stanford. UTEP allowed Rice to rush for 306 yards and average more than 6 yards/carry. Arizona's defense played well against Houston and are better on that side of the ball than they have been. The offense should score at will and I wouldn't be shocked if they had this covered well before the half. Give me the Wildcats -23! |
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09-14-17 | Texans v. Bengals -6 | Top | 13-9 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
50* TEXANS/BENGALS VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Bengals -6) Wouldn't be shocked if the public comes in on the Texans with Watson expected to start, but I'm not one that believes he's ready to be an NFL quarterback. For as many good moments he's had, he's also looked really bad at times. The biggest thing for me is he's in a situation where it will be extremely tough to succeed. The offensive line is a complete mess, in large part to the holdout of left tackle Duane Brown and injury to guard Jeff Allen. They also are down their top 3 tight ends on the depth chart, as well as their No. 2 wide out in Will Fuller. Throw in the rookie mistakes and the disadvantage of playing on the road on a short week of rest and I have to roll the Bengals at home. I'm not super high on Cincinnati, but do feel there's a bit of an overreaction here with how bad they played last week against possibly the best defense in the NFL in the Ravens. Dalton will get the offense back on track. Give me the Bengals -6! |
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09-14-17 | New Mexico v. Boise State -14 | 14-28 | Push | 0 | 11 h 10 m | Show | |
40* NEW MEXICO/BOISE ST ATS KNOCKOUT (Boise St -14) I know the Broncos have had their troubles covering at home of late, but I just feel there's too much value on Boise St laying just 2 touchdowns to the Lobos to pass up a play on them. This line has dropped and some of that likely has to do with the injury status of starting QB Brett Rypien, who has been listed as questionable. The thing is, the offense has actually looked better in the first two weeks under backup Montell Cozart (KU transfer). In fact, Cozart has just 25 fewer yards on 2 fewer attempts passing with a 3-1 TD-INT ratio. Rypien hasn't even thrown a TD. Cozart also adds another dynamic with his ability to run. He's second on the team with 108 yards on the ground. I think he's going to start and that only makes me like the Broncos more here. New Mexico was down 30-5 in the 4th quarter before a late rally last week. I hear a lot about Boise St suffering a let down after blowing that big lead late against Washington State. I think it has the opposite effect and they roll in this one. Give me the Broncos -14! |
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09-11-17 | Saints v. Vikings UNDER 48 | Top | 19-29 | Push | 0 | 8 h 20 m | Show |
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 48) I look for both offenses to struggle to get going in this one and feel there's big time value here with the UNDER. Minnesota should have one of the best defenses in the league and are more than capable of shutting down Drew Brees and the Saints offense at home in a big time game like this. Most don't see New Orleans as a great defensive team, but they made a lot of progress on that side of the ball last year and I expect them to be even better in 2017. Minnesota's offense should be improved now that Bradford has had an offseason with the team, but it's far from an elite unit. I still see the Vikings as a team that wants to win by controlling the clock with the running game and relying on their defense to make plays. Give me the UNDER 48! |
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09-10-17 | Panthers v. 49ers OVER 47.5 | 23-3 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 50 m | Show | |
40* NFL BLOCKBUSTER TOTAL ANNIHILATOR (Over 47.5) I think we are going to see a lot more offense than people are expecting here. Carolina has a healthy Cam Newton who has MVP talent and a shiny new toy in RB Christian McCaffrey. I think McCaffrey makes the Panthers extremely difficult to guard with their big receivers on the outside. I respect the Panthers defense, but they still have a below-average secondary and the 49ers are expected to be much better offensively now that Kyle Shanahan is the head coach. He's going to open up things, which in turn is going to have the defense on the field more now that the offense isn't just trying to grind it down the field with the running game. I look for SF to be a good OVER play early on. Take the OVER 47.5! |
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09-10-17 | Colts v. Rams OVER 41.5 | 9-46 | Win | 100 | 46 h 29 m | Show | |
40* NFL VEGAS ERROR OF THE WEEK (Over 41.5) I think there's some on the bandwagon that the Rams are going to be a much better offensive team this year under new head coach Sean McVay, but how much improvement is up for debate given how bad they were. They finished dead last in yards at 262.7 ypg and scoring at 14.0 ppg. I really like McVay and believe his scheme will have LA making a huge improvement into the top half of the league. He's gonna open up the offense and take advantage of the special talent that Gurley possesses. At the same time, most don't think the Colts can score with Andrew Luck not at quarterback. I think Indy will be able to move the ball just fine here, as they have some playmakers on the outside and are getting a huge break with Aaron Donald not expected to play (he's the guy that makes that defense elite). Give me the OVER 41.5! |
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09-10-17 | Ravens +3 v. Bengals | Top | 20-0 | Win | 100 | 239 h 47 m | Show |
50* AFC NORTH GAME OF THE MONTH (Ravens +3) I think the Ravens are a huge sleeper in the AFC this season. Baltimore had been so consistent for so long under Harbaugh, but had to go through a bit of a rebuilding phase with all the veterans they parted way with on both sides. Ozzie Newsome has done a tremendous job once again and while a lot of people aren't aware of it, Baltimore has the looks of one of the best defensive teams in the league this year. I also think the offense is way underrated and Joe Flacco is poised for a big bounce back season. Cincinnati's defense has been on the decline for years and will be without two of their best defenders in Burfict and Pac-Man. The offense has some new weapons, but the offensive line is a concern and figures to get exposed here. Give me the Ravens +3! |
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09-09-17 | Houston v. Arizona | Top | 19-16 | Win | 100 | 29 h 23 m | Show |
50* NCAAF VEGAS SHARP MONEY GAME OF THE MONTH (Houston PK) Houston had their Week 1 game called due to Hurricane Harvey and I think that's helping us here. The public isn't really sure what to think of the Cougars, who lost what everyone perceived to be the best up and coming coach in the country in Tom Herman. No doubt the departure of Herman takes them down a notch, but people are overlooking the talent he left behind. The offensive scheme will be the same and they added in an experienced starter at QB in Texas A&M transfer Kyle Allen. On defense they have one of the best players in the country in Ed Oliver, who was an All-American as a true freshman last year. He's the kind of talent that can make so many players around him better. I'm down on the Wildcats this year and don't see them being able to keep pace. Give me Houston -110! |
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09-09-17 | Stanford v. USC -5.5 | 24-42 | Win | 100 | 27 h 10 m | Show | |
40* NCAAF NO DOUBT PUBLIC MASSACRE (USC -5.5) I'm not overreacting to USC's less than stellar start to the season against a Western Michigan team that is way better than anyone is giving them credit for. I think the Trojans were caught off guard by how much talent was on that Broncos roster. Especially given the fact you know they were looking ahead to this huge revenge game against Stanford, which they feel is their first big test to getting to the college football playoffs. I look for a much more focused USC team in this one and I don't think Stanford will be able to do enough here to keep this within a touchdown. Give me the Trojans -5.5! |
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09-09-17 | Georgia v. Notre Dame -5 | 20-19 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 22 m | Show | |
40* NCAAF BLOCKBUSTER ATS NO BRAINER (Notre Dame -5) For whatever reason people aren't buying into the Irish's 49-16 blowout win over a Temple team that is better than they are getting credit for. I love the fact that people are doubting this team, as they play their best with a chip on their shoulder. Georgia's 31-10 win over App St was closer than the final score would indicate. In that game, Bulldogs starter Jacob Eason injured his knee and is out for this game. True freshman Jake Fromm is getting a ton of praise, but I'd be willing the nerves kick in on the road in one of the most historic venues in college football. This is a statement game for Notre Dame and I'm confident they deliver. Give me the Irish -5! |
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09-09-17 | Auburn v. Clemson UNDER 55.5 | 6-14 | Win | 100 | 26 h 38 m | Show | |
40* NCAAF BIG MONEY VEGAS LINE MISTAKE (Under 55.5) *Analysis Coming* |
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09-09-17 | Nebraska v. Oregon OVER 68.5 | 35-42 | Win | 100 | 23 h 21 m | Show | |
40* NCAAF OVER/UNDER TOTAL BLOWOUT (Over 68.5) I don't think the books are anywhere close to high enough on this total. Oregon's offense looked a lot more like they had in the Chip Kelly era in that first game under Willie Taggart and there's just a different feel to this year's team. They put 77 on Southern Utah and had 42 with time to play in the first half. Nebraska just gave up 36 points and 497 yards of offense at home to Arkansas State. They got zero chance of slowing down Oregon, who have some big revenge on their mind after blowing that game in Nebraska last year. Thing is, Cornhuskers can move the ball and will do plenty of damage here against the Ducks defense. Give me the OVER 68.5! |
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09-09-17 | Western Michigan +7.5 v. Michigan State | 14-28 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 7 m | Show | |
40* NCAAF WEEK 2 VEGAS DOG OF THE DAY (Western Mich +7.5) I don't think Michigan State looked as good as they are getting credit for in their 35-10 win over Bowling Green. The offense was hit or miss and 7 of those points came via the defense. Bowling Green use to be a formidable foe out of the MAC, but that's no longer the case. Most people just threw Western Michigan under the bus after losing their head coach in Fleck, NFL WR in Corey Davis and starting QB, but this team came to play against a very good USC team and traded blows in the 4th quarter with the Trojans. I think Fleck left a ton of talent in Western Michigan and I think there's a chance they pull off the big upset they nearly had a week ago. Give me the Broncos +7.5! |
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09-09-17 | Northwestern -2 v. Duke | Top | 17-41 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 49 m | Show |
50* NCAAF NON-CONF GAME OF THE MONTH (Northwestern -2) Northwestern got caught off-guard by a much improved Nevada team, but were able to pull away for a 31-20 win. I expect a much more focused Wildcats team in Saturday's game against Duke, who I think they are far superior to. The Blue Devils 60-7 win over NC Central looks good on paper, but it was a similar performance to their 49-6 win over NC Central to start out last season. They followed that with a 14-24 home loss to a below-average Wake Forest team and proceeded to finish the year 4-8. I look for Northwestern to take control of this game early and win here by double-digits. Give me the Wildcats -2! |
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09-08-17 | Ohio v. Purdue UNDER 56.5 | Top | 21-44 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
50* NCAAF VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 56.5) *Analysis Coming* |
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09-07-17 | Chiefs +9.5 v. Patriots | 42-27 | Win | 100 | 11 h 0 m | Show | |
40* CHIEFS/PATRIOTS WEEK 1 ATS KNOCKOUT (Chiefs +9.5) *Analysis Coming* |
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09-03-17 | West Virginia v. Virginia Tech -4.5 | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 10 h 58 m | Show | |
40* NCAAF BLOCKBUSTER BOOKIE KNOCKOUT (Va Tech -4.5) A lot of hype with West Virginia due to the addition of former Florida quarterback Will Grier. While he's a good talent, he hasn't played in over a year and the Mountaineers lost a ton of talent off last year's 10-win team. In fact, they are one of the least experienced teams in the entire country with just 8 starters and 35 lettermen returning from last season. I was impressed with what Justin Fuente did in his first season on the job in Blacksburg and expect this program to get back to that elite level we saw during the prime Beamer years. I also think the ACC is hands down better than the Big 12. Give me Virginia Tech -4.5! |
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09-02-17 | BYU v. LSU OVER 47 | 0-27 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 1 m | Show | |
40* NCAAF LATE NIGHT TOTAL ANNIHILATOR (Over 47) I have a good feeling the Tigers are going to surprise some people early in 2017 with how much different they look on offense. LSU made an exceptional hire in offensive coordinator Matt Canada, who just guided Pitt to 40.9 ppg and 447 ypg last year. Keep in mind that was his first year on the job and the season before the Panthers only managed 28.2 ppg and 377 ypg. He's got a heck of a lot more talent to work with at LSU, including a sensational junior RB in Derrius Guice. I think BYU is going to be a bit shell-shocked here with LSU's offense. At the same time, I also think the Cougars put some points on the board. LSU lost a ton on the defensive side of the ball. They have to replace their top 5 tacklers and their best returning defensive player (Arden Key) is doubtful with a shoulder injury. Give me the OVER 47! |
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09-02-17 | Louisville v. Purdue OVER 67.5 | Top | 35-28 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 47 m | Show |
50* POWER 5 NON CONF TOTAL OF THE YEAR (OVER 67.5) For whatever reason the entire country is sleeping on Louisville and returning Heisman winner Lamar Jackson this season. I know the Cardinals struggled down the stretch, but I believe it was more of the team not being as focused after losing out on their playoff hopes than opposing defenses figuring them out. Petrino has won everywhere he's went and Jackson is only going to be better this year. I love the hire by Purdue with Jeff Brohm, which should pay off on the offensive side of the ball. However, the defense will remain a work in progress. Keep in mind were talking about a Boilermakers defense that allowed 40+ points in 6 games, that includes 50 to Maryland, 44 to Minnesota, 45 to Northwestern and 49 to Iowa. Louisville is on a whole different planet in terms of offensive explosiveness than those teams. I think they score at least 40 and potentially a lot more here, while Purdue adds more than enough to push us over the mark. Give me the OVER 67.5! |
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09-02-17 | South Carolina v. NC State -5 | Top | 35-28 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 36 m | Show |
50* NCAAF NON-CONF RIVALARY GAME OF THE MONTH (NC State -5) NC State is flying under the radar. You just don’t hear a lot about this team because of the division they play in. Clemson and Florida State are both ranked in the Top 5 in the preseason poll, while Louisville returns the Heisman winner and is No. 16. The Wolfpack are absolutely loaded this year with 17 returning starters. The offense should be as good as it’s been in the Dave Doeren era. They have 9 starters back, including one of the best signal callers in the ACC in junior Ryan Finley, who gets back his top four weapons in the passing game, as well as all 5 starters on the o-line. Defensively they got 8 starters back from a unit that will be anchored by one of the best defensive lines in the country that features two top NFL prospects at defensive end. As for South Carolina, I think this team was lucky to get to 6 wins and a bowl last year. Their only win against a team that finished with a winning record was Tennessee and they caught the Vols in a great spot after a blowout loss to Alabama at home. I know they got 16 starters back, but I don’t see a lot of improvement with the harder schedule. Let’s not forget the offense only managed 20.8 ppg and the defense has been slipping of late, allowing 4+ yards/carry and more than 200 yards/rushing each of the last 3 seasons. Give me NC State -5! |
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09-02-17 | California v. North Carolina -12.5 | 35-30 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 27 m | Show | |
40* NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (UNC -12.5) Both of these teams lose a high-caliber starting quarterback. I have a lot more faith in Larry Fedora at UNC to get the Tar Heel offense rolling in 2017 than I do with Cal and first year head coach Justin Wilcox, who is a defensive minded guy. North Carolina has scored 30+ ppg in each of the first 5 seasons under Fedora and I expect LSU transfer Brandon Harris to be dynamic in this offense that has thrived with mobile quarterbacks. If he doesn't end up starting, that only means they have someone more talented, which isn't a bad thing. As for the Golden Bears, this is a major transition season and they simply don't have the talent at QB they have had the past two seasons with Goff and Webb. Not to mention this has been a historically bad road team and they are playing clear-across the country against a Tar Heels team that I think has a lot to prove. Give me North Carolina -12.5! |
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09-02-17 | Maryland v. Texas OVER 56 | 51-41 | Win | 100 | 21 h 39 m | Show | |
40* NCAAF OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Over 56) I think Herman is the real deal and I’m confident that he’s going to take Texas’ offense to a whole different level in 2017. When Herman took over at Houston he inherited a team that had only 5 starters back from a unit that averaged 29.8 ppg. He guided them to 40.4 ppg. He steps into an even better situation here with Texas, who has 7 starters back on offense, including what looks like a future star in sophomore QB Shane Buechele. Last year Maryland's offense managed 25.8 ppg, despite the fact that they scored 14 or fewer points in 5 of their 13 games. They got some electric playmakers in running back Ty Johnson and Lorenzo Harrison. Johnson average 9.1 yards/carry on 110 attempts and Harrison averaged 7.2 on 88. Wide out D.J. Moore average 15.5 yards/catch. Sophomore Tyrell Pigrome won the starting job and brings a new dynamic with his ability to run the ball. Last year he had 62 attempts for 254 yards and 4 scores in a limited role. I expect them to generate some offense here against the Longhorns. Give me the OVER! |
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09-01-17 | Charlotte v. Eastern Michigan -14 | Top | 7-24 | Win | 100 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
50* NCAAF VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (E. Michigan -14) I got no problem laying 2 touchdowns with the Eagles at home against the likes of Charlotte. These two teams played last year and Eastern Michigan won on the road 37-19 and it wasn't as competitive as the final score would indicate. That was part of a major turnaround season for the Eagles, who went 7-6, making a bowl game for the first time since 1987. Not a big surprise given the track record of head coach Chris Creighton, who finally got his guys on the field in year 3. Now heading into year 4, this team looks even better than last year with 16 returning starters. They aren't going to overlook Charlotte with this being their season opener and while the Eagles looked improved, the 49ers figure to take a step back (went 4-8 last year), as they return just 12 starters and lost big time pieces to the puzzle on both sides of the ball. Give me Eastern Michigan -14! |
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08-31-17 | Ohio State -21 v. Indiana | 49-21 | Win | 100 | 21 h 57 m | Show | |
40* NCAAF BLOCKBUSTER BOOKIE KNOCKOUT (Ohio State -21) This is a statement game for the Buckeyes, who I think is the most talented team in the country going into the season. Ohio State was embarrassed in the playoffs, getting shutout by Clemson 31-0. Urban Meyer now has the full attention of his team, which I think had some trouble dealing with the success of winning it all a couple years ago. They have an experienced QB in JT Barrett, plus big time talent all over the field on both sides of the ball. They also have a new OC in Kevin Wilson, who was let go by Indiana. I think there is some bad blood with Wilson and the Hoosiers. I see the Buckeyes really laying it on Indiana here in support of Wilson, though they likely would have even if he wasn't with the team. Give me the Buckeyes -21! |
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08-31-17 | Buffalo +24 v. Minnesota | 7-17 | Win | 100 | 20 h 14 m | Show | |
40* NCAAF PUBLIC MASSACRE (Buffalo +24) I tip my hat to P.J. Fleck and what he was able to do at Western Michigan. I just think he's got the Gophers way over-valued going into the season. Fleck has a lot of work to do with this Minnesota team, who weren't as impressive as their 9-wins would suggest last year. Four of those wins came against Maryland, Rutgers, Illinois and Purdue in the Big 10 and two more were against Oregon State and Indiana State. He's got to replace a 4-year starter at QB on offense and the defense only has 5 guys back. Buffalo should see a big spike in production with 14 starters returning and now being in the 3rd year under their head coach. I see them hanging around here and making this a game. Give me the Bulls +24! |
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08-31-17 | Florida International v. Central Florida OVER 56.5 | Top | 17-61 | Win | 100 | 19 h 12 m | Show |
50* CFB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOTAL OF THE WEEK (Over 56.5) I think the books have completely missed the mark here with this total. These two teams played last year and combined for 67 points in a 53-14 win by UCF. I think we see a similar scoring output here, giving us all kinds of breathing room. Scott Frost brought Oregon's uptempo attack with him to Orlando and if you recall the Ducks loved to poor it on teams. FIU should be improved under head coach Butch Davis, but will struggle to slow down UCF's offense which has 9 starters back and should get even better play out of sophomore QB McKenzie Milton, who flashed as a true freshman. FIU only averaged 24 ppg last year, but should see a huge uptick in their production under new OC Rich Skrosky. Give me the OVER 56.5! |
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08-26-17 | South Florida -21 v. San Jose State | Top | 42-22 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 40 m | Show |
50* NCAAF OPENING DAY ATS KNOCKOUT (USF -21) I think there's some who are a bit cautious backing USF due to the coaching change, but I'm more than willing to lay this big number on the Bulls. San Jose State is completely outclassed here and simply don't have the talent on defense to slow down USF's star quarterback Quinton Flowers, who is almost as dynamic a dual threat QB as Louisville Lamar Jackson. Last year Flowers threw for nearly 3,000 yards with 24 touchdowns to just 7 interceptions and had a ridiculous 1,530 yards and 18 touchdowns on the ground. Spartans are in the first year of a new head coach with new schemes on both sides of the ball. I think USF has this one covered early in the 1st half and continues to poor it on. Give me the Bulls -21! Bonus 2-Team 7-pt Teaser - USF -14 & Oregon St +10.5 |
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02-05-17 | Patriots -3 v. Falcons | Top | 34-28 | Win | 100 | 26 h 56 m | Show |
50* Super Bowl 51 Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Patriots -3) I have to take my chances with the Patriots to win and cover in Super Bowl 51. If not for a couple of crazy catches, New England would be 6-0 in Super Bowls under Brady and Belichick. The Patriots ability to gameplan for teams is something that doesn't get enough credit. There's so much hype around the Falcons offense, but I wouldn't be shocked at all if Belichick devised some kind of gameplan here to limit Atlanta and potentially turn this into a lopsided final. So much attention is being paid to the Falcons offense, I think it's Atlanta's defense that should be the focus, as I just don't see them being able to keep this Patriots offense in check. Give me New England -3! |
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01-22-17 | Packers v. Falcons -5.5 | Top | 21-44 | Win | 100 | 5 h 18 m | Show |
50* NFL Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Falcons -5.5) It's been a great run for Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, but I think the fun stops here for Green Bay. Atlanta isn't just favored here so the public can cash in all their bets on the Packers. This line really tells you what the sharps think of this matchup and I couldn't agree more. This Falcons team just don't get the respect they deserve and I see them having no problem winning here by at least a touchdown. The offense should be able to have their way against a depleted Green Bay defense, who is going to struggle with all the matchup problems the Falcons present. Atlanta can also control the clock and keep Rodgers off the field if need by. Most importantly, I think Falcons head coach Dann Quinn is going to put together a gameplan here to keep Greeen Bay's offense from going off. Keep in mind the Packers offense really struggled in the 2nd half against Dallas. Give me the Falcons -5.5! |
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01-15-17 | Steelers v. Chiefs -1 | 18-16 | Loss | -115 | 51 h 28 m | Show | |
50* NFL Divisional Rd Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Chiefs -1) Forget the fact that the Steelers won in a blowout in the regular season. That result means a little, especially given how early in the season it was. The Chiefs are a much better team than they were in that first meeting. Offensively rookie sensation Tyreek Hill was barely a part of the offense. Now he’s arguably their most important player alongside tight end Travis Kelce. On defense they didn’t have Justin Houston, who should be full go after getting multiple weeks off. This is also much better secondary that will face the Steelers than the first time around. Rookie D.J. White started at corner in the first meeting and was absolutely abused. He won’t even see the field this time around. Terrence Mitchell has taken over that role in the 2nd half of the season and really played well. A lot of people think this Chiefs team is limited offensively and can’t keep up with a high-scoring team like Pittsburgh. The numbers suggest otherwise. KC went 7-1 against teams who finished the season in the Top 10 in scoring, including a road win at Atlanta. In those 7 wins against the top scoring teams, it was the Chiefs offense that delivered, averaging 29.0 ppg. Let’s also not overlook the fact that Pittsburgh’s offense didn’t produce anywhere close to the same level on the road as they did at home. Just look at Big Ben’s numbers. He completed 71% of his passes with a 20-5 TD/INT ratio at home for a passer rating of 116.7. ON the road, he completed only 59.4% of his passing with a 9-8 TD/INT ratio and 78.4 rating. To put his road numbers into perspective, it very similar to that of what Brock Osweiler did on the year, as he completed 59% with a 15-16 TD/INT ratio and 72.2 passer rating. Another big factor here is Kansas City head coach Andy Reid and his success coming off a bye. Reid is 16-2 off a bye in the regular season and a perfect 3-0 in the playoffs. Lastly, you can’t overlook the advantage the Chiefs have playing at home. Arrowhead is as difficult a place to play as their is in the NFL in the regular season and it’s only magnified in the playoffs. The only home field edge I believe comparable to the Chiefs is Seattle and CenturyLink field and the Seahawks have won 10 straight at home. I’m 6-1 ATS when playing the Chiefs this season. I like my chances of improving to 7-1. Give me Kansas City -1! |
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01-14-17 | Texans v. Patriots -15 | 16-34 | Win | 100 | 27 h 26 m | Show | |
40* NFL Texans/Patriots ATS Knockout (Patriots -15) I believe the books have set this line so high to not only entice action on the Texans, but to keep the public from pounding the Patriots. It's working, as this is the least bet game on the board. While the public might be hesitant to lay this big number on New England, I have no problem backing the Patriots to win by 3 scores at home. New England beat the Texans 27-0 at home in the regular season with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback. I see no reason why they won't win by at least 17 with Brady under center. The thing is, it's well known that the Texans defense is good. However, the Pats have had two weeks to prepare for this defense, plus have already seen them in action. What makes them so good is their pass rush, most notably Clowney. Like they did in the first meeting, when they made Watt a non-factor, they will do the same with Clowney. Brady's dink and dunk approach will be able to move the ball. On the flip side of this, New England defense will be ready for Osweiler and his limitations and should be able to generate a couple turnovers and win here by 20+. Give me the Patriots -15! |
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01-09-17 | Clemson v. Alabama OVER 50.5 | Top | 35-31 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
50* Clemson/Alabama Vegas Sharp Money Total Top Play (OVER 50.5) I think everyone is falling into a similar trap to last year's title game, where there's so much talk about how dominant Alabama's defense is and Clemson coming off a dominant performance in their Semifinals matchup. Last year they beat Oklahoma 37-17, keeping an explosive Sooners offense in check. I just don't see this being a defensive battle. Clemson's defense has had their fair share of games where the defense struggled, giving up 36 to Louisville, 34 to Florida State and 42 to Pitt. Let's also not forget that Alabama has scored 30+ in 12 of their 14 games. The offense didn't look good against Washington, but Kiffin wasn't on his game. I just think there's too much talent on offense on both sides for this to stay under the total here. Give me the OVER 50.5! |
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01-08-17 | Giants v. Packers UNDER 44.5 | 13-38 | Loss | -105 | 49 h 35 m | Show | |
40* NFL Over/Under Total Knockout (UNDER 44.5) I think the perception here is that Green Bay's defense struggling with injuries and Aaron Rodgers playing out of his mind, that this game is going to be high-scoring and fly over the total posted here of 44.5. I don't think that's going to be the case at all. The Packers late season surge has come with them playing a favorable schedule, either against teams who haven't been good defensively or teams that just weren't the same defensively in the 2nd half (Seattle/Minnesota). The last real good defense they played was the Texans and they managed just 21 points. This Giants defense is just as good and has familiarity with Green Bay having played in the regular season. While I don't love Green Bay's defense, the Giants offense isn't anything special. They can't run the ball and Eli Manning isn't as good as he gets credit for. With the game in Green Bay and conditions not great, I think this is going to be a defensive showdown. Give me the UNDER 44.5! |
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01-07-17 | Raiders v. Texans -3.5 | Top | 14-27 | Win | 100 | 25 h 45 m | Show |
50* NFL Wild Card Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Texans -3.5) I think the fact that Houston is regarded as one of the worst teams to be in the playoffs, all the hate for Osweiler and how in love the public has been with the Raiders this season is creating some great value here. I was all over the Broncos in Week 17 and was shocked when the line moved in favor of the Raiders with Derek Carr being out. That was with backup Matt McGloin taking over. Now he’s out and Oakland has to turn to 3rd string rookie Conner Cook, who will be making his first career start. The Raiders offense couldn’t do anything against Denver and I think it’s going to be the same story here against a very talented Houston defense. Keep in mind the Broncos were missing some big pieces on defense in that game. Oakland ended up with just 221 yards and 11 first downs. The key here is that this is a defense he can exploit. The Raiders defense is awful and had it not been for Carr saving them in the majority of their wins, they wouldn’t have even sniffed the playoffs. Houston was a good team at home and I think Houston wins here by a touchdown easy and wouldn’t be shocked if it’s the biggest blowout on Wild Card weekend. Give me the Texans -3.5! |
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01-02-17 | Auburn +3 v. Oklahoma | Top | 19-35 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
50* NCAAF Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Auburn +3) I like the value here with the Tigers as a 3-point dog against the Sooners, as I actually have Auburn rated better than Oklahoma and expect them to win this game outright. Oklahoma and the Big 12 are overrated and I'm just not buying this Sooners team being as good as everyone makes them out to be. Auburn has the talent defensively to give Oklahoma's offense trouble and the weapons to attack what I feel is a very suspect Sooners defense. Give me Auburn +3! |
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01-01-17 | Chiefs -4 v. Chargers | 37-27 | Win | 100 | 29 h 36 m | Show | |
40* NFL Blockbuster ATS Knockout (Chiefs -4) The Chiefs had one of the more remarkable comebacks of the season when they hosted the Chargers back in Week 1. I believe that has this line a little lower than it should be. Kansas City is coming off one of their best performances of the season last week against the Broncos and are the only team with something to play for in this game. This is also not the same Chargers team that jumped out to that big lead in Week 1. San Diego has been decimated with injuries and clearly are struggling to find motivation down the stretch with their loss last week to the Browns. Despite the fact that the Chiefs are 21-4 in their last 25 regular season games, this team just doesn't get the respect it deserves. I look for KC to rack up their 6th straight win over the Chargers and think there's a good chance they do so by double-digits. Give me the Chiefs -4! |
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01-01-17 | Ravens v. Bengals +1 | 10-27 | Win | 100 | 25 h 12 m | Show | |
40* NFL Situational Dog of the Week (Bengals +1) I think the books have set a bad line here with the Ravens as a road favorite against the Bengals. Cincinnati has been out of the playoff picture for a while now and while they are short-handed, they have not quit and I certainly aren't going to lay down in their home finale against a division rival. Baltimore is a good team and probably should be favored over Cincinnati in most situations. The thing is, this isn't one of them. The Ravens essentially played a playoff game last week at Pittsburgh. Win and they controlled their destiny in the AFC North, lose and they are out of the playoff race. That's a really tough pill to swallow and I just don't see them coming out and playing their hearts out with their season basically lost last week. When you aren't motivated to play, things can get ugly in a hurry, regardless of who the other team has on the field. Give me the Bengals +1! |
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01-01-17 | Cowboys v. Eagles -4.5 | Top | 13-27 | Win | 100 | 25 h 8 m | Show |
50* NFL Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Eagles -4.5) I absolutely love the value here with the Eagles in this one. Dallas is treating this like a Week 1 preseason game (resting guys, only playing starters for a series or two). I know the Eagles are favored, but I don't think by near enough given the circumstances. This game means absolutely nothing to the Cowboys and the only thing on the coaches and players minds is to make sure no one gets hurt. They are going to keep things very vanilla and get the scrubs in as quickly as possible. The reason the line isn't bigger, is because there's so many public Cowboys backers out there that will bet them regardless of the situation. Philadelphia has shown they aren't going to just lay down and quit because their season didn't go as planned. I think this one is going to get ugly in a hurry and even if Dallas keeps it close early, they should pull away in the 2nd half. Give me the Eagles -4.5! |
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