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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-12-21 | UMKC v. Iowa -19.5 | 57-89 | Win | 100 | 10 h 60 m | Show | |
40* (CBB) - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE (Iowa -19.5) I was mad at myself for not taking the Hawkeyes -20 against Longwood in their opener. Iowa went on to win and cover that game easy 106-73. Most of the starters barely had to play in the 2nd half they were so dominant early (led 56-29 at the half). I just think the Hawkeyes are way undervalued coming into this season, as everyone is down on them after not just losing the National Player of the Year in Garza, but also their second best player in Wieskamp. Both of which were taken in the NBA draft. Thing is, this is a deep and talented Iowa team that has more than enough talent to compete for a top spot in the Big 10. They have an emerging star in Keegan Murray and a veteran presence and outstanding 3-point shooter in Jordan Bohannon. They are also a much better defensive team and able to get out faster in transition without Garza. They take on a Kansas City team that just lost by 15 on the road to an awful Minnesota team that lost all 5 starters and are in the first year of a new head coach. It would take a really bad game for the Hawkeyes to not win this game by 20+ points. Give me Iowa -19.5! |
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11-12-21 | Western Kentucky -2.5 v. Minnesota | 69-73 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 37 m | Show | |
40* (CBB) No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT (W Kentucky -2.5) I'm way down on this Gophers team and I'm not giving this Minnesota team any respect for covering a mere 6.5-point line at home against Kansas City. The same Kansas City team that is a 20-point dog to Iowa tonight. That result combined with the fact that WKU only beat Alabama State 79-74 as a 25.5-point favorite will have a lot of people left scratching their head at how the Hilltoppers can be favored here on a neutral site. Looking back I probably should have been on Alabama State in that game vs WKU. The Hornets had 4 of 5 starters back and are an extremely long and athletic team. Either way, it should serve as a great tuneup for WKU for this game and it also should have them 100% locked in after not playing up to their potential. Minnesota is all but a lock to be the worst team in the Big Ten this year. They didn't bring back a single starter from last year, are in the first year of a new head coach. Give me the Hilltoppers -2.5! |
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11-11-21 | Raptors +3 v. 76ers | 115-109 | Win | 100 | 10 h 55 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT (Raptors +3) I think we are getting a good price here on the Raptors as a slim road dog against a depleted 76ers team. The value with Toronto stems from the fact that they will be playing in the second game of a back-to-back, while Philly had yesterday off. Raptors also haven't looked good of late, losing their last 3 games, including an ugly 88-104 setback at Boston last night. As tough as it is to play on no rest, I see this as a much worse spot for the 76ers, who we know are going to be without Joel Embiid and Matisse Thybulle. They could also be missing Tobias Harris and Seth Curry. Not to mention they still are playing without Ben Simmons. Siakam will be out for Toronto to rest after just recently coming back from injury. I think that's not necessarily a bad thing. Siakam is still shaking off some rust and it felt like his return kind of threw off the chemistry this team had going, as they had gone 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in their previous 5 before the 3-game skid. Give me the Raptors +3! |
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11-11-21 | Sacred Heart +15.5 v. Providence | 64-92 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 11 m | Show | |
40* (CBB) Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE (Sacred Heart +15.5) I will gladly take 15.5 with the Pioneers as they go on the road to face Providence. Both of these teams opened their season with a win on Tuesday, but only one of them covered. That was Sacred Heart, who went on the road and beat LaSalle 86-81 as a 7.5-point dog. The Friars failed to cover as 15-point favorites in a 80-73 victory against Fairfield. While I didn't play it, I wasn't surprised to see the Pioneers cash a winning ticket. They got back all 5 starters from last year. It's rare for Sacred Heart to not lose some guys to the transfer portal, as they have watched a lot of their top guys leave in previous offseasons. With that much experience back and a coach that always seems to get his team to exceed expectations, it's not out of the question they could make a run for the Northeast title. Note that the Fairfield team that just covered against Providence also had 5 starters back from last year and they are picked to finish middle of the pack in the MAAC. As for the Friars, they get back 4 starters, but they lost the engine that made their offense work in David Duke, who averaged 16.8 ppg and 4.8 apg. He was also their biggest 3-point threat. They also lost two other key rotation players in Greg Gantt and Jimmy Nichols. I just think this is a few too many. Give me Sacred Heart +15.5! |
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11-11-21 | Vermont v. Northern Iowa -1.5 | Top | 71-57 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 59 m | Show |
50* (CBB) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (UNI -1.5) I love Northern Iowa at basically a pick'em at home against Vermont. Most will look to fade the Panthers after watching them just lost outright 58-62 as a 14.5-point home favorite to Nicholls State, but UNI couldn't have shot it any worse in their opener. The Panthers were a dreadful 15 of 50 (30%) from the field, going just 3 of 23 (13%) fromb ehind the 3-point line. I'm confident they will have a much better time shooting the ball, as this is a team that's talented enough to win the MVC this year. UNIT gets back all 5 starters, including their star guard AJ Green, who averaged 22.3 ppg before his season was ended just 3 games into last year. Vermont is one of the top teams in the America East and get back 4 starters, but this is a big step up in competition for the Catamounts and they did lose one of their top players to the transfer portal in Stef Smith. I also think there's an edge for UNI having already played a game, while Vermont is playing their first game. Give me the Panthers -1.5! |
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11-10-21 | Kings +1 v. Spurs | 117-136 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 30 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE (Kings +1) Sacramento should not be a dog in this game. The Kings have one of the more misleading records right now. They are just 5-6, but this is more a result of the brutal schedule they were dealt to start the year. I actually think Sacramento is one of the more improved teams. The same can't be said for the Spurs. San Antonio is just 3-7 and there's nothing fluky about their record. The Spurs just aren't a very good team. Two of their three wins have come against arguably the worst team in the league in the Magic and the other was against a depleted Bucks team on the road. Prior to last night's win against a depleted 76ers team, Milwaukee had lost 5 of 6. Give me the Kings +1! |
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11-10-21 | Mavs v. Bulls -3.5 | 107-117 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (Bulls -3.5) I will gladly take my chances with Chicago as a mere 3.5-point home favorite against the Mavs. I just think this is a really good price to back the Bulls at home. Chicago put those two losses to the 76ers behind them with a 118-95 win over the Nets on Monday. They did so in fashion, outscoring Brooklyn 42-17 in the 4th quarter. The Bulls are now 7-3 SU and 7-3 ATS. This is without question one of the most improved teams in the league and while the betting public is starting to take notice, I think the books have been a little slow to inflate the numbers on them, which is why they continue to show value. As for the Mavs, I just haven't been all that impressed. They too are off to a 7-3 SU start, but are just 3-6-1 ATS. Their largest margin of victory all season is just 10 points and that was against the Rockets at home. I really like Lonzo Ball being able to make it difficult for Doncic and if Luka is great, I have a hard time seeing Dallas keeping this close. Give me the Bulls -3.5! |
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11-10-21 | Lehigh v. Rutgers -19.5 | Top | 70-73 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 16 m | Show |
50* (CBB) - Opening Week PLAY OF THE MONTH (Rutgers -19.5) I'm shocked the Scarlet Knights are only a 19.5-point favorite at home against the likes of Lehigh. I think it's a bit ridiculous that not only is Rutgers not in the Top 25 in the AP or coaches poll, they aren't even one of the 10+ teams that are getting votes. This has the looks of Steve Pikiell's best team yet and I think the lack of respect the Scarlet Knights are getting will have them extremely motivated to make a statement in their opener. Things could look a lot different for Rutgers if Geo Baker and Ron Harper Jr. had decided to leave early for the NBA, but both opted to return after testing the waters. They will be up against a Lehigh team that went just 4-10 last year playing a conference only slate in the Patriot League. So while they get back 4 starters, that doesn't mean a whole lot when matched up against a Power 5 program like Rutgers. Give me the Scarlet Knights -19.5! |
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11-09-21 | Northern Arizona v. Arizona -25 | 52-81 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show | |
40* (CBB) Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT (Arizona -25) I got no problem laying the big number with Arizona at home against Northern Arizona. I thought the Wildcats made an outstanding hire by bringing in Gonzaga assistant Tommy Lloyd. I know there's some sanctions that they will have to overcome, but there's more than enough talent on hand, as the Wildcats bring back 4 of 5 starters. Last year, Arizona annihilated the Lumberjacks 96-53. This year's Northern Arizona team looks to be down a notch, as their top two players, Cameron Shelton and Luke Avdalovic both left via the transfer portal. Shelton averaged 19.2 ppg and Avdalovic averaged 10.8 (one of their top 3-pt shooters). Those two had 31 of the 53 points scored against Arizona last year. Give me the Wildcats -25! |
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11-09-21 | Blazers v. Clippers -3 | Top | 109-117 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Clippers -3) I will lay the 3-points at home with the Clippers, as they host the Blazers in the second game of Tuesday's TNT double-header. I just don't get why this Portland team is getting so much respect on the road. The Blazers are 0-4 SU and 0-4 ATS away from home this season and are getting outscored on average 115.2 to 101.5 on the road. The Clippers got off to an ugly start, but seem to have figured it out. LA has won 4 straight to move to 5-4 (first time this year over .500). While we know this team will take it to another level once Kawhi comes back from injury, they are the more than good enough to cover this short number at home against a Blazers team that is not getting the production they need out of their star player in Damian Lillard. After ranking 3rd in the league last year at 28.8 ppg, Lillard is 35th at a mere 18.5 ppg. Give me the Clippers -3! |
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11-09-21 | Cal-Irvine v. New Mexico State -4.5 | 51-62 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show | |
40* (CBB) - Opening Night VEGAS INSIDER (New Mexico St -4.5) I will take my chances with the Aggies making a statement in the first game of the 2021-22 season. Last year was completely out of the norm for New Mexico State, as they failed to win either the WAC regular-season or conference tournament title since 2011. Even with the down year, head coach Chris Jans still has a 95-25 record in 4 years with the program. Jans knew he needed to improve the talent on this team to get them back where they are accustomed and he did just that. New Mexico State brought in a plethora of talented transfers from both the JUCO level and Power 5 programs. I just don't think people realize how talented this team is and we are getting a great price to back them at home. Give me the Aggies -4.5! |
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11-09-21 | Kansas v. Michigan State +4.5 | Top | 87-74 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
50* (CBB) - Kansas/Mich St CHAMPIONS CLASSIC Winner (Michigan St +4.5) I will gladly take my chances with Tom Izzo and the Spartans as a decently priced dog against the Jayhawks in the first of Tuesday's Champions Classic double-header at Madison Square Garden. Last year was not the norm for Michigan State. While they did enough to make the NCAA Tournament for a 23rd straight time, they were just 15-13 overall and at 9-11 they had their first losing season in Big Ten play since the 1992-93 season. I really like the talent that Izzo has coming back, but what I really love is the addition of Northeastern transfer Tyson Walker, who gives them the true point guard they lacked last year after having such a stable at the position for years with Cassius Winston. Give me the Spartans +4.5! |
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11-08-21 | Hawks +3.5 v. Warriors | 113-127 | Loss | -103 | 12 h 12 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Big Money Fade UPSET SHOCKER (Hawks +3.5) A lot of people are going to look at this line and wonder how are the Warriors such a small home favorite against a Hawks team that has lost 5 of 6 and failed to cover 6 of their last 7. The books just don't set bad lines on purpose and with how much the public is getting back involved with the Warriors after their 8-1 SU and 6-3 ATS start, I got roll the dice with Atlanta in this one. One thing that is worth pointing out with the Warriors 8-1 start, is they haven't exactly played the toughest schedule. While they got wins over the Lakers and Clippers, both were by 7 or fewer and neither of those teams have looked good early. Their other 6 wins are against the Kings, Thunder (twice), Hornets, Pelicans and Rockets. This is also not a great scheduling spot for Golden State with them playing the second of a back-to-back and 3rd in 4 nights. I could definitely see the Hawks being the more motivated team, as we should get a max effort here from Atlanta. Give me the Hawks +3.5! |
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11-08-21 | Nets v. Bulls -1 | Top | 95-118 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Bulls -1) I really like the Bulls as a slim 1-point home favorite against the Nets. Brooklyn is a massive public team with Durant and Harden, but while they are 7-3 SU they are just 5-5 ATS. They come in having won 5 straight, but those wins have come against the Pacers, Pistons (twice), Hawks and Raptors with 3 of the 5 at home. The other big thing here is rest. Brooklyn will be on no rest after yesterday's game at Toronto. While Brooklyn won the game relatively comfortably 116-103, they weren't able to spread out the minutes like you would like in the first of a back-to-back. They have 4 of their 5 starters log 32+ minutes. This is also the Nets 3rd road game in 4 nights. Bulls are on just 1 day of rest, but this will be just their second game in the last 5 days and they have had zero travel during this time. Chicago should come out here extremely motivated, not just to make a statement against one of the better teams, but to snap their 2-game skid (coming off two close losses in a home-and-home vs the 76ers). Give me the Bulls -1! |
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11-07-21 | Pacers v. Kings -1.5 | 94-91 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 27 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (Kings -1.5) I will gladly take my chances here with Sacramento as a mere 1.5-point home favorite against the Pacers. I've really been impressed with this Kings team to start the season. Sacramento is 5-4, but their 4 losses have come against playoff caliber teams. The books have been slow to adjust on the Kings and those backing them have made a killing of late. Sacramento has covered 3 straight and 5 of 6 overall. This just doesn't feel like the sell high spot with this line. Indiana is another team I like, but this is not an ideal spot for the Pacers playing the 2nd game of a 4-game west coast trip. Indiana's defense just isn't good enough to win away from home against quality teams, as they are giving up 118.2 ppg on 47% shooting from the field and 42% shooting from deep away from home. Give me the Kings -1.5! |
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11-06-21 | Jazz +2.5 v. Heat | 115-118 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 5 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (Jazz +2.5) I really like the Jazz here in this spot. Miami has been one of the most impressive teams in the league and have quickly becoming a public betting favorite. The biggest thing here is the health of Miami point guard Kyle Lowry. The Heat are 6-2 and both losses have come with Lowry not playing the entire game. Lowry missed Miami's 91-102 loss at Indiana and he went out in the 3rd quarter of Thursday's 78-95 loss to the Celtics. The Heat just really struggle to get into any flow offensively without him on the floor. I know Utah might be without one of their best players as well, as Donovan Mitchell is questionable after missing Thursday's 116-98 win over the Hawks. The thing is, I think there's a much better chance that Mitchell plays, as it felt more precautionary than anything with Lowry not playing against Atlanta. Keep in mind, unlike Lowry, Mitchell came back and finished the game against the Kings after injuring his ankle in the 1st half. Even if he doesn't play, I still think Utah is the right side against a Heat without Lowry. Play the Jazz +2.5! |
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11-05-21 | Hornets v. Kings -1.5 | Top | 110-140 | Win | 100 | 23 h 14 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Kings -1.5) I love the Kings as a mere 1.5-point home favorite against the Hornets on Friday. I think this Sacramento team is flying way under the radar right now. Kings are just 4-4, but those 4 losses have come against the Warriors and Jazz at home and the Mavs and Jazz on the road. They have covered 4 of their last 5 including a 112-99 win over New Orleans last time out as a mere 5-point favorite. Charlotte is a team that gets a lot of love because they can score a lot of points, but I'm not a big believer in this team and I certainly don't like the spot for the Hornets. Charlotte just started a 5-game road trip across the country on Wednesday at Golden State and after this game they go to LA for back-to-back games at the Staples Center vs the Clippers and Lakers on Sunday/Monday. Charlotte also comes in not shooting the ball well. They have shot 41% or worse from the field in 3 of their last 4 games. Give me the Kings -1.5! |
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11-05-21 | Cavs +5.5 v. Raptors | 102-101 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Smart Money VEGAS INSIDER (Cavs +5.5) I'll take my chances with Cleveland as a 5.5-point road dog against the Raptors. Even though the Cavs have been one of the biggest surprises early, going 5-4 SU and 6-3 ATS, it's going to take a lot more before the betting public gets on board with this team, so to me they are still a great buy low candidate. As for the Raptors, I think this is a good sell high spot on them. Toronto is a team a lot of people were high on coming into the season and they look like they are living up to that hype going 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in their last 5. I still have a lot of concerns with this team and this is not a great spot coming off a 3-game road trip and a massive lookahead with a home game against the Nets on deck Sunday. I not only think the Cavs can keep it within the number, but I give them a good shot here to win outright. Give me Cleveland +5.5! |
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11-04-21 | Jazz -1.5 v. Hawks | Top | 116-98 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Smart Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Jazz -1.5) I will gladly lay a mere 1.5-points on the road with Utah against an underwhelming Hawks team. Atlanta got off to a decent start, going 3-1 in their first 4 games, but two of those wins were against the Pistons and Hornets. The other was against a Mavs team that has also not looked good early on. Since that start they have lost 3 of 4, including a 108-117 setback last night at Brooklyn. I just think even with the slow start, Atlanta is a team that is still being a bit overvalued based on last year's deep playoff run that saw them get to the Eastern Conference Finals. On the flip side, I've liked what I've seen out of Utah to start the season. I did play against them as a 9-point favorite at home against the Kings last time out, but that was more of how underrated I think Sacramento is right now. I just don't think 1.5 is near enough for Atlanta. Utah's only loss on the season is a 99-107 loss at Chicago, which was a bit of a flat spot, being it was the first of a back-to-back with the defending champs on deck. Give me the Jazz -1.5! |
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11-04-21 | 76ers v. Pistons +6 | 109-98 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 29 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) Public Money ATS MASACRE (Pistons +6) A lot of people are going to look at this line and wonder how in the heck are the 76ers only a 6-point favorite against a Pistons team that is 1-6 and struggling to keep games close. They just lost 91-117 at Brooklyn and 89-117 at home to the Bucks in their last two games. We see a lot of crazy things in the NBA this early in the season and more times than not when a line stinks this bad, I'm going to side with the books and take the ugly dog. There is reason to like the Pistons. Philly is far from full strength right now. They are still waiting on Ben Simmons to figure things out and are also without two other starters in Tobias Harris and Danny Green. 76ers are also playing on the road with no rest after really playing hard in last nights big win over the Bulls. I think we see Philly lay a big egg here and it wouldn't shock me if Detroit won outright. Give me the Pistons +6! |
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11-03-21 | Pelicans v. Kings -5 | 99-112 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT (Kings -5) I got no problem laying a mere 5-points at home with the Kings. We cashed on Sacramento as a 9-point dog in a 113-119 loss at Utah last night. I said it in my write up for that game that I thought this Kings team was way undervalued because of their schedule. Kings have played 5 of their first 7 on the road, with their only two at home coming against the Jazz and Grizzlies. Got to believe they will be motivated here for that first home win of the season. This is also an interesting scheduling spot. Both teams are playing on no rest (Pelicans played at Phoenix last night). New Orleans has lost both of their previous games on no rest. In one they scored just 89 points at Minnesota and the other they gave up 123 to the Knicks at home. I just think bad teams are more likely to struggle in a bad scheduling spot and this just doesn't feel like near enough points for the gap in talent. Give me the Kings -5! |
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11-03-21 | Nuggets +1 v. Grizzlies | Top | 106-108 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Sharp Money PLAY OF THE MONTH (Nuggets +1) I love the Nuggets at basically a pick'em on the road against the Grizzlies. These two teams just played on Monday in Memphis, creating a true revenge spot with the same opponent in the same venue. Memphis won that game 106-97 in a great buy low spot on the Grizzlies after an ugly 103-129 home loss to the Heat. It was also a bad spot for Denver, playing their 3rd game in 4 nights and second straight on the road. Denver should be a bit refreshed being able to stay in Memphis over their off day on Tuesday. They should also be highly motivated to beat a team they just lost to, especially with how they played offensively, scoring just 97 points. Hard to see this Memphis defense holding the Nuggets offense in check in back-to-back games. Defense is not a strength of this team. The Grizzlies are giving up 114.1 ppg, allowing 47.6% shooting and are dead last in the league in defensive efficiency. Give me the Nuggets +1! |
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11-03-21 | Bulls +2 v. 76ers | 98-103 | Loss | -104 | 8 h 28 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE (Bulls +2) I'll take my chances with the Bulls as a slim 2-point dog on the road against the 76ers. Chicago was expected to be much improved this season, but no one thought they were going to be this good and I think it's taken some time for the market to catch up. Bulls are 6-1 SU and 6-1 ATS. As for the 76ers, I think the market has been inflated on them, even though they are 5-2 SU and 4-3 ATS to start the year. Philly has been playing behind the 8-ball with Ben Simmons not playing and now they got two big injuries to add their problem. Danny Green is out with a hamstring injury and Tobias Harris is out with Covid. Harris is the 76ers second leading scorer at 19.8 ppg (also averages 9 rpg and 4.2 apg), while Green is one of their top 3-point shooters. Give me the Bulls +2! |
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11-03-21 | Knicks v. Pacers -1 | 98-111 | Win | 100 | 8 h 26 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Situational VEGAS INSIDER (Pacers -1) I really like the value with the Pacers as a slim 1-point home favorite against the Knicks. New York's gotten off to a fine start and I've made some money on this team early, but I think they are being way overvalued here on the road against a Pacers team that is finally starting to get healthy. Indiana recently got back one of their best players in Caris LeVert, but while he was returning they had to deal with the loss of Malcolm Brogdon, who was really carrying this team early. Brogdon is expected to return from his hamstring injury, making the Pacers that much better and deeper. I just think it's the time to buy low on Indiana right now. Give me the Pacers -1! |
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11-02-21 | Kings +9 v. Jazz | 113-119 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Smart Money VEGAS INSIDER (Kings +9) I'm like getting 9-points with the Kings on the road against the Jazz. This just feels like a few too many for Utah to be laying. While Sacramento is off to a mere 3-3 start this season, this looks like a much better version of the Kings than what we saw a year ago. The biggest thing that gets overlooked with the Kings .500 start, is the schedule that they have had to endure. They have played road games against the Blazers, Suns, Pelicans and Mavs, while their only two home games have come against these Jazz and the Warriors. Utah did win the first meeting 110-101, which is the same margin as the number here, but keep in mind that the Kings had a 52-46 lead at the half and were only down 1 going into the 4th. You might be thinking that the Jazz should win by more with the game on their home court this time, but I just think there's also the same argument you could make for the Kings being motivated for revenge. I also don't love the spot here for the Jazz. Utah just finished up a 3-game midwest trip on Sunday and have to go right back on the road for another 3-game trip after this one is over. Give me the Kings +9! |
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11-01-21 | Nuggets v. Grizzlies -2 | 97-106 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Sharp Money ATS SLAUGHTER (Grizzlies -2) I really like Memphis as a slim 2-point home favorite against the Nuggets. We played against the Nuggets as a small road dog against the Twolves on Saturday and took a tough loss in a 93-91 Denver win. Minnesota did us no favors, shooting just 38.9% from the field and turning it over 20 times. Even though it ended up being the wrong side, I think it was the right handicap, playing against the Nuggets in the 2nd game of a back-to-back. While Denver did have Sunday off, this will be their 3rd game in 4 nights. We are also getting the exact same price betting against the Nuggets with a much better team in the Grizzlies. It just feels like to me we are getting a big overreaction on Memphis after that ugly 103-129 loss at home to the Heat on Saturday. Should get a really big effort here from the Grizzlies against a tired Nuggets team. Give me Memphis -2! |
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10-30-21 | Nuggets v. Wolves -2 | 93-91 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 57 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Late Night VEGAS INSIDER (Wolves -2) I will lay the short number with Minnesota at home against the Nuggets. I not only think this Timberwolves team is a lot better than people realize, but there's a pretty big scheduling advantage here for Minnesota. The Timberwolves will be playing this game on a full 2 days of rest. The Nuggets on the other hand will be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back after last night's showdown with the Mavs. While it was a blowout, that was a primetime game on ESPN, so there's likely to be some emotional letdown here. You also can't overreact to that outcome with how bad the Mavs were. Dallas played no defense and shot 29.5% from the field. It's also not like we have seen Denver fail to bring it. Just a few games back they lost 87-99 at home to the Cavs as a 9.5-point favorite. Not only do the Timberwolves have a potent 1-2-3 scoring attack with Karl-Anthony Towns, Anthony Edwards and D'Angelo Russell, but are playing much better on the defensive side of the ball. Minnesota ranks 3rd in the league right now in defensive efficiency (last year they finished T-25th). Give me the Timberwolves -2!  |
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10-30-21 | Heat v. Grizzlies -2 | 129-103 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 34 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Smart Money ATS ANNIHILATOR (Grizzlies -2) Great price here with Memphis as a slim 2-point home favorite against the Heat. Even though the Grizzlies are off an impressive 104-101 win at Golden State as a 6-point dog, I think the public has really got on board with this Miami team and a lot of people watched them dismantle the Hornets 114-99 last night in the first game of the ESPN double-header. I just think it's created a great sell high spot on the Heat, playing on the road against a really good team and doing so on no rest. It's also worth pointing out that Miami has not shot the ball anywhere close to as good on the road as they have at home. Heat are scoring 119.3 ppg at home compared to 98.5 ppg on the road. They have shot close to 50% at home and 39.0% on the road. Another thing to note with Memphis and them being a little undervalued even though they are 3-2, is they have played 4 of their 5 games to start to the season on the road. Give me the Grizzlies -2! |
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10-30-21 | Hawks v. 76ers -3 | 94-122 | Win | 100 | 8 h 57 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) Situational ATS NO-BRAINER (76ers -3) I really love the value here with Philly as a mere 3-point home favorite against the Hawks. The 76ers are definitely down a notch missing a player of Ben Simmons caliber, but there's still more than enough talent for this to be a top tier team in the Eastern Conference without them. They just aren't a title contender without him on the floor. With that said, I just think they should be a bigger favorite here at home. You also have to take into consideration that the Hawks aren't exactly living up to expectations to start the season. It just feels like to me that they are a bit overvalued after making the Eastern Conference Finals last year. A good note to go with that is the Hawks beat the 76ers in a grueling 7-game series to get to the Eastern Conference Finals, so you got to think this is one Philly will definitely be up for. I also think you have to really look at how the Hawks have played on the road. They are 1-2 away from home. They lost 95-101 at Cleveland as a 8-point favorite, 111-122 as a 3-point favorite at Washington and barely beat the Pelicans 102-99 as a 5-point favorite. This will also be Atlanta's 3rd road game in 4 nights, which I don't think people are factoring in near enough. Give me the Hawks -3! |
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10-29-21 | Mavs +2 v. Nuggets | Top | 75-106 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Friday Night MAX UNIT Top Play (Mavs +2) I really like Dallas as a slim 2-point road dog against the Nuggets on Friday. The big question mark here for a lot of people looking at this game is the health of Nikola Jokic for Denver. He's listed as questionable after suffering a knee injury in their last game vs the Jazz. He only played 15 minutes before getting hurt and did not return. There was no structural damage, which is why he's questionable, but he didn't practice Thursday and it would seem foolish for the Nuggets to put him out there for this game. I know the Nuggets didn't fold against a good Utah team after Jokic went down (lost 110-122), but I just don't think they got the talent to really be a good team without him on the floor, especially with Jamal Murray still sidelined. Mavs have won 3 straight since that ugly showing in their opener, where they lost 87-113 at Atlanta. Even if Porzingis doesn't play, I still think Dallas has the two best players in this game with Luka Doncic and Jalen Brunson. Wouldn't be shocked if this line doesn't flip after it's official that Jokic is out. Give me the Mavs +2! |
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10-29-21 | Kings -2 v. Pelicans | 113-109 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT (Kings -2) It feels like I could be walking into a trap here, but I just can't pass up a play on Sacramento as a slim 2-point road favorite against the Pelicans, who are a shell of themselves to start the year with Zion Williamson sidelined. New Orleans is just 1-4 with their only win coming in the second leg of back-to-back games vs the Twolves, where Minnesota won the first meeting. The Kings are just 2-2, but that's actually a pretty impressive record when you consider their schedule has been @ POR, vs UTAH, vs GS and @ PHO. They won both of those games on the road vs the Blazers and Suns. I also don't think people realize how good the Kings' Harrison Barnes has been playing. He's averaging a double-double with 26.8 ppg and 10.0 rpg. Give me the Kings -2! |
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10-28-21 | Knicks v. Bulls -1 | Top | 104-103 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Knicks/Bulls MAX UNIT Top Play (Bulls -1) I love the Bulls at basically a pick'em at home against the Knicks. We knew Chicago was going to be an improved team with the moves they made in the offseason to bring in the likes of Lonzo Ball, DeMar DeRozan and Alex Caruso to pair with the likes of Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic. Despite not playing anywhere close to their potential offensively, the Bulls have managed to start out the season 4-0 SU and 4-0 ATS. A big reason for that is their defense. Chicago is 2nd in the league behind only the Heat in team defensive efficiency. They are giving up just 97.5 ppg, while holding teams to 43.7% shooting from the field and 33.0% from behind the 3-point line. They are also only giving up an average of 16 free throws a game, so teams are having to work for everything they get. Now they have faced a pretty favorable schedule. Their 4 wins have come against the Pistons (2x), Pelicans and Raptors. With that said, I see them extremely motivated here to show they are for real against a good Knicks team and there's no love between the Chicago and New York fan base. The energy inside the United Center tonight I believe is going to feel a lot like a playoff game. I think the books were right when they opened this game at Chicago -3. Give me the Bulls -1!  |
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10-27-21 | Kings +8 v. Suns | Top | 110-107 | Win | 100 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Wednesday Night MAX UNIT Top Play (Kings +8) I love the value we are getting with the Kings as a 8-point road dog against the Suns. I just think Phoenix is being way overvalued by the books to start the season, which all stems from last year's run to the NBA Finals. They are just 1-2 to start the year with a 12-point home loss to the Nuggets as a 6-point favorite and a 29-point loss as a 2.5-point dog at Portland. They did beat the Lakers 115-105 on the road, but LA has not looked great early on as they try to figure out how to make it all work with Westbrook. Kings are also 1-2, which might not seem great, but most probably had them 0-3 to start the year. Sacramento had to go on the road to play the Blazers in their opener before hosting the Jazz and Warriors. They beat Portland and while they lost to Utah and Golden State, they were competitive in both games. I just think this is a much closer matchup than the number would suggest. I think we see that in the fact that the Kings rate higher in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Give me the Kings +8! |
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10-27-21 | Heat +4.5 v. Nets | 106-93 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (Heat +4.5) I will gladly take my chances with Miami a 4.5-point road dog against the Nets. I just have not been impressed with what I've seen out of Brooklyn to start the year. It's all Durant. Harden isn't giving them anything close to what they need and they aren't as deep as they were a season ago. It shows in the fact that you got two former MVPs in your starting lineup and you are shooting just 44.2% as a team from the field. As for Miami, I think everyone realises the Heat are a top tier team, I just don't think they realize how good they are. The only game they lost was a road game at the Pacers where they didn't have Kyle Lowry. It was also a big flat spot for the Heat after they laid it all on the line in a 137-95 win over the Bucks two days earlier. I just think the Heat are playing the better basketball and have a lot more to prove in this one. Give me Miami +4.5! |
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10-26-21 | 76ers v. Knicks -1.5 | Top | 99-112 | Win | 100 | 6 h 1 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - 76ers/Knicks Atlantic Division PLAY OF THE MONTH (Knicks -1.5) I love the value we are getting with the Knicks as a slim 1.5-point home favorite against the 76ers. This to me feels like what the line should be if Philly was at full strength with Ben Simmons on the floor. I know that the 76ers are 2-1 SU and 2-1 ATS to start the season without Simmons, but their two wins have come against the Pelicans and Thunder, who are a combined 1-6. The only legit team they played is the Nets and they lost at home 109-114. The Knicks are a team that I think are flying a little bit under the radar. No one seems to want to give Thibs and this team much respect for what they did a year ago, where they finished with the 4th best record in the east at 41-31. Knicks opened the season with that crazy 138-134 2OT win at home against Boston. A game they should have won in regulation if not for a minor collapse in the last few minutes. They went out 2 days later and crushed the Magic 121-9, covering as a 8-point favorite. They did lose outright as a 12-point favorite at home to Orlando in their next game, but that was the definition of a flat spot for New York. I just think with Julius Randle playing like he did last year and the two big additions of Kemba Walker and Evan Fournier, the Knicks are an even stronger team this season. Give me the Knicks -1.5! |
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10-25-21 | Wizards +7 v. Nets | Top | 90-104 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Wizards +7) I love the value we are getting with Washington as a 7-point dog against the Nets. I've been on Washington in each of their first two games. They came thru in their opener and had a brutal beat in the second game...they were -2.5, led by 10 going to the 4th quarter, were up 4 in OT and Pacers hit a 3 a the buzzer to lose by 1. Keep in mind they played that game against Indiana without their best player in Bradley Beal. It just goes to speak to the depth this Wizards team has added. Dinwiddie, who they added from Brooklyn, had a team-high 34 and Kuzma put in 26. The Nets just haven't looked like the team we thought. They got blitzed in the opener at Milwaukee, were a bit lucky to beat the 76ers on the road and lost 95-111 at home to the Hornets yesterday. A game they led 58-50 at the half. Durant is playing great, but he's getting no help. James Harden has not played up to par, as he's only averaging 18.3 ppg on 38.8% shooting. Give me the Wizards +7! |
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10-23-21 | Heat -4 v. Pacers | 91-102 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 15 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT (Heat -4) We had a really bad beat last night on the Wizards -2.5, as they ended up beating the Pacers 135-134 in OT. It was just brutal. Washington had a 10-point lead going into the 4th quarter and proceeded to score just 17 to send the game to OT, where the Pacers hit a 3 at the buzzer down 4. I just really question how much Indiana has left in the tank after playing that OT game against the Wizards. Keep in mind the Pacers played in a uptempo affair on Wednesday against Charlotte (lost 122-123). This will be their 3rd game in 4 nights on no rest. Miami on the other hand has only played 1 game this season, which was Thursday's 137-95 blowout win over the Bucks at home. Heat are going to be the much more rested team in this game and on top of that are hands down the better team in this matchup. Miami's got another day off tomorrow before hosting an awful Orlando team on Monday, so there's no reason for them to not show up with a great effort here. Give me the Heat -4! |
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10-22-21 | Nets -1 v. 76ers | Top | 114-109 | Win | 100 | 21 h 37 m | Show |
50* (NBA) Friday Night MAX UNIT Top Play (Nets -1) I was dead wrong with Brooklyn in Tuesday's season opener at Milwaukee. I thought the Bucks would come out fat and happy and instead they played like they were the team with something to prove. Unfortunately these great situation spots can't come through every time. The Nets didn't help matters by not playing up to their potential. They got outscored 37-25 in the 1st quarter and 30-19 in the 4th quarter. I know they are without Kyrie, but the duo of Harden and Durant is still lethal. I just don't see this team starting the season 0-2. The 76ers are an interesting team, as they have all that off the court drama going on with Ben Simmons. Philly is still a playoff team without Simmons if Embiid is healthy, but not a team you think can do much in the postseason. They won their season opener 117-97 against a Pelicans team that was without Zion. That was the good news for the 76ers. One game into the season and Joel Embiid is already showing up on the injury report with a sore knee. Wouldn't surprise me at all if he doesn't play in this game. Philly hasn't hesitated in years past resting him when he's not at full strength and it would makes sense to do it this early in the year. With or without Embiid on the floor in this game, I will go down swinging with Brooklyn at this price. Give me the Nets -1! |
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10-22-21 | Pacers v. Wizards -2.5 | 134-135 | Loss | -104 | 20 h 44 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE (Wizards -2.5) I think a lot of people were surprised with how good the Wizards looked in Wednesday's season opener. They laid it on a Raptors team that a lot of people came into the season thinking could be a surprise in the east. Washington won 98-83, outscoring Toronto 57-37 in the 1st half. I was not one of those people that were surprised. I gave out a free pick on the Wizards Wednesday. With triple-double machines Russell Westbrook getting traded to the Lakers, it just felt like everyone wrote this team off. It's not as bad of a roster as you think. They still have a top tier player in Bradley Beal who can shoulder the offense. The only other starter back with Beal is big man Daniel Gafford, who they got in a trade last year. They signed Spencer Dinwiddie away from the Nets, who only played 3 games last year after posting career highs of 20.6 ppg and 6.8 apg the season before. The other two starters are guys they got in the Westbrook trade in Kyle Kuzma and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (also got a great reserve in Montrezl Harrell). The Pacers lost 122-123 on the road against the Hornets in an absolutely crazy game. Indiana's couldn't miss in the 1st half of that game and jumped out to a 75-59 lead at the half. They then managed to score just 13 points in the 3rd quarter and Charlotte all the sudden led 92-88 going into the 4th. Hornets got the lead up to 10, before the Pacers stormed back to take the lead. I just wonder if that game didn't take a lot of a depleted Pacers roster that is starting the season down two starters in Caris LeVert and T.J. Warren. Keep in mind they only used an 8-man rotation against Charlotte. I also just wonder if an awful Hornets defense didn't make this Pacers team look a little better than it actually is right now. Give me the Wizards -2.5! |
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10-21-21 | Mavs v. Hawks -2.5 | Top | 87-113 | Win | 100 | 20 h 45 m | Show |
50* (NBA) Vegas Insider MAX UNIT Top Play (Hawks -2.5) I love the value here with the Hawks as a slim 2.5-point home favorite against the Mavericks. I'm a little shocked Atlanta isn't getting a little more love here. This is a team that appeared to take a huge step forward last season, as they made it all the way to the Eastern Conference Finals. That should have only lit a fire under this Hawks team to work that much harder to take that elusive next step and get to a NBA Finals. Regardless if they got a real shot at that or not, they believe they do. So much so that they brought basically everyone back from that team. You could same the same thing about the Mavs bringing a lot of their guys back, but there is a big difference with this Dallas team. Head coach Rick Carlisle decided to not come back (now with the Pacers) and they replaced him with Jason Kidd. I loved Kidd as a player, but he's been a failure at this head coaching thing. I know it might not seem like a NBA coach does a lot, but I think losing Carlisle is a big deal for this young team. Give me the Hawks -2.5 at home! |
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10-20-21 | Nuggets +6 v. Suns | 110-98 | Win | 100 | 23 h 1 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Situational Late Night BAILOUT B-L-O-W-O-U-T (Nuggets +6) Big time value here with the Nuggets as a 6-point dog in Wednesday's season opener. Denver will be on the road against the Suns, who I think are going to be a team the books way overvalue early on. Everyone wants to bet Phoenix after last year's run to the NBA Finals, especially with the Suns bringing back everyone from that team and adding a guy like Landry Shamet. This should be one of the better teams in the West, but they should not be this big of a favorite against an equally talented Nuggets team. Denver has finished in the Top 3 of the Western Conference standings each of the last 3 years. They got too got everyone back, including the reigning MVP in Nikola Jokic. If I was making a line on these two teams on a neutral court, I would have them at a pick'em. While home court is not equal in the NBA, the standard is around 3 points. This line is double that. Give me the Nuggets +6! |
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10-20-21 | Pacers v. Hornets -2 | Top | 122-123 | Loss | -104 | 21 h 36 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Vegas Insider MAX UNIT Top Play (Hornets -2) I absolutely love the Hornets as a mere 2-point home favorite in Wednesday's season opener at home against the Pacers. I know a lot of people are questioning Charlotte having a 38.5 game win total after only winning 33 games a year ago (keep in mind they did play 10 fewer games). I definitely don't think there will be many running to place a bet on the OVER 38.5. That tells me the books see a lot in this team and are more than happy to take your UNDER bet. I'll side with the wiseguys that this Charlotte team is going to be improved. The do got a pretty good starting 5 with LaMelo Ball, Terry Rozier, Gordon Hayward, Miles Bridgers and Mason Plumlee/P.J. Washington. Ball had a sensational rookie year, averaging 15.7 ppg, 6.1 apg and 5.9 rpg. He only played in 51 games and started just 31, which might be a big part of the books stake on this team. If he takes another step in year two, this team will be in the playoff mix. The Pacers are a team that I got my concerns with. Indiana was just as bad as Charlotte last year. They went 34-38. While there starting five of Malcolm Brogdon, Caris LeVert, T.J. Warren, Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner, they will be down two of them. LeVert and Warren are both ruled out for this game. They could also be without one of their top reserves in Jeremy Lamb. I just think Indiana is getting way too much respect given the injuries they are dealing with to start the season. Give me the Hornets -2! |
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10-19-21 | Nets +1 v. Bucks | Top | 104-127 | Loss | -101 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Opening Night PLAY OF THE YEAR (Nets +1) I love Brooklyn at basically a pick'em tonight, as they go on the road to take on the defending champs to open their season. This is more of a party for the Bucks, as tonight is all about the ring ceremony for them. For Brooklyn, it's the first step to redemption. If this team had been healthy last year, I'm confident they would have been the team getting their championship rings on opening night. Add in the fact they get to play the team that knocked them out of the playoffs and went on to win it all, I see the Nets out to make a statement. Some might see the drama with Kyrie Irving not playing because he won't get vaccinated as a big blow to this team. There's no denying that Irving is a special talent on the court, but he's a headcase off of it. I don't think not having him around is as going to hurt them as much as most think. They got a more than capable point guard to replace Irving in James Harden, a guy I think was out of shape last year. I think we are going to see Harden back to his MVP form and he's playing alongside arguably the best player in the game in Kevin Durant. This is also a deeper team than the one that ended last season. They brought in Patty Mills to be their backup point guard, so the depth there is solid. They also signed veteran Paul Milsap and got LaMarcus Aldridge to come out of retirement, giving them a solid 1-2 punch down low. I also think their 1st round pick in Cam Thomas is a guy who could carve out a role. Milwaukee's got pretty much the same team, outside of the addition of SG Grayson Allen. They also aren't at full strength with starting SG Donte DiVincenzo and backup big man Bobby Portis both out. Give me the Nets +1! |
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07-17-21 | Bucks v. Suns -3.5 | Top | 123-119 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
50* (NBA) Bucks/Suns Game 5 MAX UNIT Top Play (Suns -3.5) We took a tough loss with the Suns +5 in Game 4, as they wound up losing by 6 after leading by as many as 9 in the 4th quarter. It was a bit of a meltdown for Phoenix once Devin Booker picked up his 5th foul early in the 4th, as Booker had been dominating up to that point. Phoenix really should have won that game getting next to nothing out of veteran point guard Chris Paul. I just think that with the series shifting back to Phoenix, the Suns are going to not only get more out of their role players, but also I see Paul and Booker both playing well. Give me the Suns -3.5! |
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07-14-21 | Suns +5 v. Bucks | Top | 103-109 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 37 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Suns/Bucks MAX UNIT Top Play (Suns +5) I will gladly take my chances with Phoenix as a 5-point dog in Game 4. I was not surprised at all at what happened in Game 3. The Bucks were in full on desperation mode to avoid going down 3-0 and were getting a big boost with the series shifting to Milwaukee. Look for the Suns to bounce back in a big way. Neither Paul or Booker played well in Game 3. I see both of them playing better. I also think we see a lot more energy defensively from Phoenix. I also think that there's a good chance if Milwaukee does manage to win this game, the Suns will be able to keep it within the number. Give me Phoenix +5! |
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07-11-21 | Suns v. Bucks -4 | Top | 100-120 | Win | 100 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Suns/Bucks MAX UNIT Top Play (Bucks -4) I was on the Suns in both Game 1 and Game 2. I also like Phoenix to win this series. With that said, I love this spot and price with the Bucks in Game 3, as the series shifts to Milwaukee. I know the final scores look like Phoenix dominated, but Milwaukee put a much better fight than the scores would indicate. Not only are the Bucks going to get a big boost playing at home (mainly the role players), we are going to see Milwaukee treat this like a Game 7. They have to win this game to have any shot. It's just hard for the Suns to treat it in the same way up 2-0. I think Milwaukee wins here and the Suns take the next two to close it out in Phoenix in Game 5. Give me the Bucks -4! |
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07-08-21 | Bucks v. Suns -5.5 | Top | 108-118 | Win | 100 | 22 h 8 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Bucks/Suns MAX UNIT Top Play (Suns -5.5) I cashed Phoenix in Game 1 and will fire right back with the Suns at -5.5 in Game 2. Even though the Bucks lost Game 1 by 13-points, there's a lot of talk about how competitive Milwaukee was in defeat. I look at it a little different. The Bucks lost by 13 despite the two teams basically shooting the same from the field (Suns 46.6% and Bucks 45.5%) and Milwaukee going +5 (16 to 11) on made 3-pointers. Giannis was able to play Game 1 and was effective with 20 points and 17 rebounds, but he only attempted 11 shots, while Middleton took 26 and both Holiday and Lopez attempting 14. That tells me Giannis is not 100%. I also wonder how that knee is going to respond to those 35 mins he played just two days ago. Give me the Suns -5.5! |
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07-06-21 | Bucks v. Suns -6 | 105-118 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Bucks/Suns Game 1 VEGAS INSIDER (Suns -6) I'll lay the 6-points with the Suns in Game 1 of the NBA Finals on Tuesday. I know the Bucks were able to advance past the Hawks without Giannis in the Eastern Conference Finals, but I give them no shot against the Suns without him. He's likely to be back at some point, but is listed as doubtful for Game 1. I also think the Suns are much better suited to deal with the size and length of the Bucks. They have seen plenty of it in the postseason in their two series with the Lakers and Clippers. Guard play has also been a problem for Milwaukee defensively and Phoenix has two studs with Paul and Booker. I don't see this one being close at all. Give me the Suns -6! |
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07-03-21 | Bucks v. Hawks -2.5 | Top | 118-107 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 21 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Bucks/Hawks MAX UNIT Top Play (Hawks -2.5) I really like Atlanta at -2.5 at home in Game 6 on Saturday. I think we have seen how much more home court matters when the star players aren't on the court in the last two games. Atlanta won Game 4 at home 110-88 in their first game without Trae Young. Milwaukee won Game 5 at home 123-112 in their first game without Giannis Antetokounmpo. Antetokounmpo has been downgraded to doubtful and Trae Young is questionable. Some thought there was a chance Young was going to come back for Game 2. With Atlanta facing elimination, you have to think Young will be out there at all costs. Even if he doesn't play (I think he will), I see this game playing out similarly to Game 4. Maybe not quite as big a blowout, but a comfortable home win to set up Game 7 on Sunday. Give me the Hawks -2.5! |
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07-01-21 | Hawks +2 v. Bucks | Top | 112-123 | Loss | -101 | 11 h 0 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Hawks/Bucks MAX UNIT Top Play (Hawks +2) I'm going to take Atlanta as a small dog in Game 5 on the road. After watching the Hawks dominate Game 4 at home without Trae Young, some might be thinking Milwaukee can do the same without Giannis in this one. I just don't think that will be the case. Atlanta had no answer for Antetokounmpo. If he got to his spot, there was little to nothing they could do to stop him. If they doubled him, it would just result in an open shot for another player. I just think Milwaukee is in a lot of trouble without their former MVP to lead the way. Young is going to be a game-time decision for the Hawks. If he plays, it's a plus, but I don't think Atlanta needs him to win this game. Give me the Hawks +2! |
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06-30-21 | Suns +1 v. Clippers | Top | 130-103 | Win | 100 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Suns/Clippers MAX UNIT Top Play (Suns +1) I'm going big on the Suns in Game 6 as they go to LA looking to close out the series. I did not see Game 5 going as it did. I expected a little more urgency out of Phoenix, but that just wasn't the case. There's also not a lot you can do when the Clippers not only get a monster game out of Paul George, but also huge showings from guys like Reggie Jackson, Marcus Morris and DeMarcus Cousins. All 4 of those guys were lights out from the field, as they combined to shoot 63%. Replicating that kind of production is very unlikely. We should also see a big uptick in the energy level for the Suns. Give me Phoenix +1! |
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06-29-21 | Bucks -6.5 v. Hawks | 88-110 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 43 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Bucks/Hawks Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (Bucks -6.5) I have to lay the 6.5 with Milwaukee in Game 4 on the road. While I'm expecting Trae Young to suit up for Atlanta, he's not going to be playing this game at 100%. I just don't think Atlanta has enough fire-power to keep it close against this Bucks team without Young putting up crazy numbers. Just look at Game 2, which Milwaukee won 125-91. Young only scored 15 points and yet was still the leading scorer for Atlanta. He's not only the guy that needs to score, he's the one that gets everyone else going. Not only that, but it's pretty clear the Hawks defense isn't built to stop this Bucks' offense. Milwaukee has really scored at will in the paint and when you get easy looks like that, it makes it a lot easier to not only win, but win going away on the road. Give me the Bucks -6.5! |
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06-28-21 | Clippers v. Suns -5 | Top | 116-102 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Clippers/Suns MAX UNIT Top Play (Suns -5) I will gladly take my chances with the Suns as a 5-point home favorite in Game 5 on Monday. Phoenix was able to win Game 4 to take a 3-1 series lead. They did so with Paul and Booker having another off night shooting. Paul was 11 for 41 (26.8%) from the field in the 2 games at LA, while Booker was just as bad at 13 for 43 (30.2%). Phoenix as a team shot 38.9% from the field in Game 3 and 36.0% in Game 4. That's after they shot 55.1% in Game 1 and 50.0% in Game 2 at home. I know the Clippers have made some adjustments, but I think a lot of the poor shooting is just the difference of home/away. Keep in mind this is a Suns team that is shooting 48.8% from the field for the season. If they can just get in the mid 40's they are going to run away with this thing. Give me Phoenix -5! |
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06-27-21 | Bucks v. Hawks +5 | Top | 113-102 | Loss | -112 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Bucks/Hawks MAX UNIT Top Play (Hawks +5) I love the value here with Atlanta as a 5-point home dog in Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals. If you look at the Game 2 line, which was Bucks -8 at home, this line should be closer to 2.5-3 at Atlanta when you factor in the home court edge. The line we are seeing is more like if they were playing on a neutral court. It's just a big overreaction to Milwaukee's blowout win in Game 2. What people overlook with that result, is that was a clear letdown spot for Atlanta who had just stole Game 1. Not only that game, but they had just played that Game 7 against the 76ers two days prior to Game 1. Milwaukee was simply the more motivated team in Game 2. I also think having Scott Foster referee that game, was a big advantage for the Bucks, as he lets a lot more go, which doesn't favor the smaller Young. Look for Young to not only get a few more calls and get back to that guy that dominated Game 1 with 48 points. He also should get plenty of help from the role players playing at home. Give me the Hawks +5! |
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06-26-21 | Suns -1 v. Clippers | Top | 84-80 | Win | 100 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Suns/Clippers MAX UNIT Top Play (Suns -1) I really like Phoenix to bounce back from a really poor showing in Game 3 to win Game 4 and take a commanding 3-1 series lead. I know LA ended up running away with a 106-92 win in Game 3, but let's not forget that the Suns had the lead at the half in that one. When you look at how poorly Phoenix shot the ball, they were lucky it was as close as it was. Suns were just 35-90 (38.9%) from the field and shot a mere 31.3% from behind the 3-point line. Chris Paul was 5 of 19 (26.3%) from the field and Devin Booker was an even worse 5 of 21 (23.8%). I'm pretty confident Paul and Booker shoot considerably better in Game 3 and I just don't think LA will be able to keep pace without Kawhi Leonard. They may also be without a key piece in Marcus Morris. Give me the Suns -1! |
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06-24-21 | Suns -1 v. Clippers | Top | 92-106 | Loss | -109 | 22 h 28 m | Show |
50* (NBA) Suns/Clippers MAX UNIT Top Play (Suns -1) I will gladly take my chances with the Suns at -1 in Game 3. I took the Clippers in both Game 1 and 2, just missing out on a cash in Game 1 and easily winning in Game 2. I just thought the Suns were being a bit overpriced with Chris Paul out. I don't know if it's cause the Clippers have been down 0-2 in each of their first two series and came back to make a series of it, but LA should be a be a bigger dog with Paul expected to return. Especially with Kawhi still out for the Clippers. You also can't overlook the way that Phoenix was able to steal Game 2. Not only Ayton's last second dunk for the win, but Paul George's two critical missed free throws right before that. Losing like that is brutal and can be really hard to bounce back from. Phoenix has also shown the want and the ability to finish off teams when they get up in a series. I'm confident there is zero overlooking this game for the Suns. Give me Phoenix -1! |
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06-23-21 | Hawks +8 v. Bucks | Top | 116-113 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - East Conference Finals PLAY OF THE MONTH (Hawks +8) I just feel like 8-points is way too much for Atlanta to be catching in Game 1 against the Bucks. Milwaukee should win the series, but there's no reason to think the Hawks aren't going to give them a run for their money. I think a lot of people credit Atlanta being in the Eastern Conference Finals more to the 76ers collapsing than giving them the props they deserve for how they are playing. Trae Young has been sensational. That's a tough 76ers team to score on with all their size and he wasn't deterred. I also think people are quick to forget just how fortunate the Bucks were in getting to this series. Injuries to Harden and Irving are the only reason Milwaukee is still playing. If they don't get hurt, Bucks probably get swept or lose in 5 and everyone is talking about how they need to blow it all up. Lastly, I just trust the Hawks a little more here to show up with the right mindset. Seeing how little respect they are getting with this huge line and hardly anyone picking them to win the series, they should have a chip on their shoulder. Milwaukee on the other hand just beat the team that everyone thought was going to win it all. Might be a little harder for them to bring that intensity. Give me the Hawks +8! |
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06-22-21 | Clippers +5.5 v. Suns | Top | 103-104 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Clippers/Suns MAX UNIT Top Play (+5.5) We took a bit of a tough beat on the Clippers +4 in Game 1, but I saw enough that I liked with LA to put up some big cash on them in Game 2 at +5.5. The Suns shot 55% from the field and got a triple-double from Devin Booker, who finished with 40 points, 13 rebounds, 11 assists. Yet it was a 2-point game with less than 25 seconds to play. That to me is a good sign for the Clippers being able to make the adjustments (something they have been great at in these playoffs) needed to not only cover, but even up the series 1-1 with a win. Booker may play well again in Game 2, but the chances of him replicating the box score from Game 1 is highly unlikely. Clippers got big games from George (34 points) and Jackson (24 points), but DeMarcus Cousins is the only other guy who finished in double-figures with 11. Mann, who had that monster Game 6 against Utah, only played 27 minutes because of foul trouble. He was 3 for 4, including 3 for 3 from 3. They have to do a better job of getting him more involved while he's playing like this. If Chris Paul was playing, this would be a different story. Give me the Clippers +5.5! |
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06-20-21 | Hawks +7 v. 76ers | Top | 103-96 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Hawks/76ers Game 7 MAX UNIT Top Play (Hawks +7) I've had a pretty good feel for this series, cashing the Hawks +6 in Game 5 and the 76ers -3 in Game 6. Given the number, I can't help myself but to go big on Atlanta +7 in Game 7. The home team has historically had the edge in Game 7, but not so much of late. Since 2016, the home team is just 8-7 SU in Game 7 and a miserable 4-11 ATS (2-10 L12). You also got to look at just how close these last 3 games have been at the end. Since the 76ers 16-point win in Game 3, the last 3 games have been decided by a combined 11 points with no single margin greater than 5. With that said, I not only think the Hawks can keep this close, but I wouldn't be shocked if they won outright. While Philly was able to keep the series alive with a 104-99 win in Game 6, I think it says a lot that Atlanta was able to keep it close with no one stepping up to help Trae Young. He had 34 points and the next best was 17 from Huerter. Not to mention it wasn't anywhere close to Young's best, as he was just 13 of 30 from the field. Give me the Hawks +7! |
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06-20-21 | Clippers +4 v. Suns | 114-120 | Loss | -109 | 6 h 56 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Clippers/Suns VEGAS INSIDER (Clippers +4) I'll take my chances with the Clippers as a 4-point road dog in Game 1 against the Suns. I know Chris Paul is just a piece to Phoenix's success, but I believe he's the most important piece. It's not so much his scoring, though it's been up in the playoffs, but his ability to run the offense and get guys easy looks. He's also the guy everyone looks to in tough situations. Not having him out there is a massive loss. I also think it's a tough spot for the Suns due to the fact that they haven't played in a week since their 4-game sweep of the Nuggets. The rest is great for the body, but no always great for the mind and mechanics. Clippers on the other hand are riding a wave of momentum after taking out the Jazz without Kawhi. I think LA is in prime position to steal Game 1. Give me the Clippers +4! |
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06-19-21 | Bucks v. Nets -1.5 | Top | 115-111 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
5* (NBA) - Bucks/Nets Game 7 MAX UNIT Top Play (Nets -1.5) I love the Nets as a slim -1.5 home favorite in Game 7 against the Bucks. The home team has historically owned Game 7 and I think that will be the case here. Milwaukee played really well at home in Game 6 to keep the series alive, but the Bucks don't figure to get the kind of production out of guys not named Antetokounmpo on the road. At the same time, you can expect more out of the role players for Brooklyn. I also think we could see Harden give a little more than he has, given this is a winner take all game. He was definitely more of a factor in his second game back and as long as he doesn't re-injure that hamstring, it's going to get better and better each day. More than anything, I'm betting on Kevin Durant to deliver the performance needed to get Brooklyn the win. We saw him put this team on his back in Game 5 and he's more than capable of shouldering the load. Give me the Nets -1.5! |
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06-18-21 | 76ers -3 v. Hawks | Top | 104-99 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - 76ers/Hawks MAX UNIT Top Play (76ers -3) I'll take my chances here with the 76ers as a slim 3-point road favorite in Game 6. All the talk right now is about how Philadelphia blew that 26-point lead in Game 5. While I definitely enjoyed having the Hawks +6, I'm not writing the 76ers off like others. Not enough credit is being given to Atlanta's shot making. The Hawks were 13 of 16 from the field in the 4h quarter and it's not like they were all easy looks at the basket. Yes the 76ers played poorly down the stretch, but I still like what I saw from this team for the majority of that game. One thing is for sure, if the 76ers get up big at any point in the rest of this series, they will not take their foot off the gas. I feel good about Philly not only winning this game, but winning it rather convincingly. Give me the 76ers -3! |
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06-17-21 | Nets +6 v. Bucks | 89-104 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 33 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Nets/Bucks VEGAS INSIDER (Nets +6) This almost looks too good to be true with Brooklyn catching 6-points in Game 6, but I just can't help myself. I just really question the psyche of the Bucks after how they lost in Game 5. Milwaukee was in complete control of that game to start, leading 29-15 at the end of the 1st quarter and up by 16 at the half. Only to lose 108-114. Durant was sensational, scoring 49 points with 17 rebounds and 10 assists. No one may be better suited to shoulder the load than this guy. Having Harden helps. I know he's playing at less than 100%, but just his presence on the court is huge for this team. I also got to think he's going to do a little better than his 5 points on 1 of 10 shooting. I really think given how Game 5 ended that the series will end with a Nets win tonight, but no way I'm passing up on 6-points. Give me Brooklyn +6! |
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06-16-21 | Hawks +6.5 v. 76ers | Top | 109-106 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
50* (NBA) Hawks/76ers MAX UNIT Top Play (Hawks +6.5) I'll take my chances with Atlanta as a 6.5-point road dog in Game 5. The series may be tied up at 2-2 and headed back to Philly, but the Hawks are the team with all the momentum. Atlanta outscored the 76ers 54-38 in the 2nd half of their 103-100 come from behind win in Game 4. While Trae Young had 25 points and 18 assists, he shot just 8 of 26 from the field and 3 for 11 from behind the 3-point line. I think it says a lot how he can impact a game that much even when he's not shooting great. Have to think Young will be a little more efficient in this one. The other huge thing here that I think should have this line lower, Joel Embiid is clearly not 100%. That torn meniscus in his knee is really starting to cause him problems. I just don't think that's something that's going to all the sudden feel better on just 1 day of rest. Keep in mind he had two days to recover from Game 3 to Game 4. Give me the Hawks +6.5! |
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06-15-21 | Bucks v. Nets +4.5 | Top | 108-114 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Bucks/Nets MAX UNIT Top Play (Nets +4.5) No Kyrie. No Harden. How could the Nets possibly win this game without their two superstars? This is what everyone is thinking after Milwaukee's 107-96 win in Game 3 to even the series at 2-2. I believe we are seeing a big overreaction with this line. I just don't think the Bucks should be laying almost 5-points on the road. For as much as Milwaukee "dominated" Game 3, they only won by 11 with Brooklyn having an awful night offensively. Durant scored 28. The only other player was Irving with 11 and he played a total of 17 mins. I believe a lot of that is as simple as the impact being on the road has on the role players. I'm expecting a monster game from KD, but I also think Blake Griffin and Joe Harris will play big roles. I also think there will be an other guy step up and give them some scoring. At the same time, look for some regression from the Bucks role players on the road. You also got to think a few more calls go in Brooklyn's favor in front of the home crowd. Give me the Nets +4.5! |
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06-14-21 | Jazz v. Clippers -4.5 | Top | 104-118 | Win | 100 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Monday MAX UNIT Top Play (Clippers -4.5) I will roll the dice with the Clippers as a 4.5-point home favorite in Game 4. This is just one of those series where you almost expect the home team to win every game. Utah won the first two game at home and LA responded with a 132-106 win in Game 3. As is the case for just about every team, the big difference between playing at home and on the road is the play of your role players. Utah got 30 from Mitchell, but no other player reached 20. They also lost Game 3 by 26, despite making 19 and shooting 43% from behind the 3-point line. That tells me the Clippers defense is making it hard for them inside and it's a dangerous thing to live and die by the 3-pointer on the road. I wouldn't be shocked if this wasn't another blowout win. Give me LA -4.5! |
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06-13-21 | Nets -2 v. Bucks | Top | 96-107 | Loss | -102 | 6 h 17 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Sunday MAX UNIT Top Play (Nets -2) I love the Nets as a slim 2-point road favorite in Game 4 against the Bucks. While Milwaukee was able to avoid going down 3-0 with a 86-83 win in Game 3, there was a lot not to like with the Bucks in that victory. Milwaukee just doesn't have enough offense outside of their two stars Antetokounmpo and Middleton. The two combined for 68 points with each going for more than 30 in Game 3 and yet they still only managed 86 points. The same output they posted in their 125-86 loss in Game 3. I just think Antetokounmpo's inability to shoot from outside really hurts this team. There's also zero chance the Nets are scoring anywhere close to 83 points in this one. Durant and Irving are too good. I not only think Brooklyn wins, but I wouldn't be shocked if this was a blowout. Give me the Nets -2! |
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06-12-21 | Jazz v. Clippers -4.5 | 106-132 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Jazz/Clippers VEGAS INSIDER (Clippers -4.5) I will gladly take my chances with the Clippers as a small 4.5-point home favorite against the Jazz. Utah has a 2-0 series lead, but it's not like they have dominated. Jazz won Game 1 112-109 and Game 2 117-111. That's with Donovan Mitchell scoring 45 and 37 points. With the series shifting to LA and the Clippers backs firmly against the wall, I like them to not only win Game 3 but to win it convincingly. If you remember, whenever LA needed a win in their previous series against the Mavs they got the job done. I think the Clippers will have a better game plan for Mitchell and we will see Utah's shooting go down a bit on the road. Give me the Clippers -4.5! |
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06-11-21 | 76ers -1 v. Hawks | Top | 127-111 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Friday MAX UNIT Top Play (76ers -1) I really like the value here with the 76ers at basically a pick'em on the road in Game 3. Since the Hawks led 74-54 at the half in Game 1, Philadelphia has outscored Atlanta 188-156 (+32). After that loss in Game 1, the 76ers really dominated from the start in Game 2. They held the Hawks to 20 points in the 1st quarter and 18 in the 4th quarter. Philadelphia is also going to be extremely motivated to get back the home court advantage. As far as Embiid, he's clearly not limited by his knee. Embiid had 40 points and 13 boards in Game 2. I like Trae Young and this Hawks team, but playing a team like the 76ers is where their inexperience in the playoffs could really hurt them. I just don't know if I'm with everyone else on how good this Atlanta team is. Seems to me they are getting a lot of love from eliminating a Knicks team that was destined to struggle in the postseason. Give me the 76ers -1! |
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06-10-21 | Clippers v. Jazz -3 | Top | 111-117 | Win | 100 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Thursday MAX UNIT Top Play (Jazz -3) We suffered a tough 1/2-point loss on the Jazz -3.5 in Game 1, but will not hesitate to take Utah at -3 in Game 2. The Jazz couldn't have started much worse in Game 1, scoring just 18 points in the 1st quarter and trailing by as many as 14 before winning 112-109. After getting a chance to make some adjustments at the half, Utah outscored the Clippers 32-19 in the 3rd quarter. They also won that game despite an off-night shooting. While they did make 17 3-pointers, they shot 50, which is only 34%. They also shot just 40% from the field overall. Let's also not forget how tough it is to play in Utah. The Jazz have a massive home-court edge, which is why I think they win here and wouldn't be surprised if LA came back and won the next two at home. Give me Utah -3! |
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06-10-21 | Nets v. Bucks -3.5 | 83-86 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 35 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Smart Money VEGAS INSIDER (Bucks -3.5) I'll take my chances with Milwaukee in Game 3 at home against the Nets. It will be tough for a lot of people to back the Bucks here after watching them get annihilated 125-86 in Game 2 on Monday. Thing is, losing like that makes me like Milwaukee even more. Not only are we going to get some value on the line, but we also know that the Bucks are going to treat this like it's Game 7 of the NBA Finals. Lose here and you can stick a fork in them. I definitely think Milwaukee is better than they showed in their two games in Brooklyn. I wouldn't be surprised if the Nets don't lose at home this entire playoffs , especially if Harden comes back soon. Lets also not forget the Nets went up 2-0 at home on Boston and went on to lose Game 3 119-125 as a 7-point favorite. Give me the Bucks -3.5! |
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06-09-21 | Nuggets +6 v. Suns | 98-123 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 27 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Nuggets/Suns VEGAS INSIDER (Nuggets +6) I'll take my chances with the Nuggets as a 6-point road dog in Game 2 against the Suns. It just didn't look like Denver brought the right mindset into Game 1 and things really derailed for them in the 2nd Half. Nuggets had the lead at the half before getting outscored 65-47 in the last two quarters. I think we are going to see the Nuggets really slow things down and get Jokic even more involved. He had 22 points and 9 boards in Game 1, but shot just 10 of 23 and only had 3 assists. I also don't think the Suns are going to have 4 different guys score 20+ points. Phoenix also had a ridiculous 20-6 edge in free throw attempts, outscoring the Nuggets by 12 at the foul line. I'll take the points, but I like Denver to win here. Give me Nuggets +6! |
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06-08-21 | Clippers v. Jazz -3.5 | Top | 109-112 | Loss | -107 | 24 h 30 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Tuesday MAX UNIT Top Play (Jazz -3.5) I'll take my chances with Utah as a slim 3.5-point home favorite against the Clippers. No one wants to believe in the Jazz and I think it creates value with them in this spot. With a spread of just 3.5, we basically just need Utah to win. They are 33-6 on their home floor this year. This is also a great fade spot for the Clippers coming off that Game 7 against the Mavs. Not only that they were facing elimination in the last two games in that series. It would make sense they come out flat in Game 1 on the road. Give me the Jazz -3.5! |
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06-06-21 | Hawks v. 76ers -2.5 | Top | 128-124 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 53 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Hawks/76ers MAX UNIT Top Play (76ers -2.5) I can't help myself but to go big on the 76ers in Game 1 of their series against the Hawks on Sunday. Regardless if Embiid plays (I'm assuming he won't), I'm confident Philadelphia will hold serve at home. The biggest thing for me is I just think the Hawks are getting way too much respect from the oddsmakers right now. A lot of that is the perception on this team after their convincing 4-1 series win over the Knicks in the first round. I said it from the start with New York. I did not think the Knicks were as good as people thought. There regular-season success just doesn't translate to the playoffs because everyone plays hard in the postseason. 76ers got more than enough weapons without Embiid to dominate this game and if he plays they got no chance. Give me Philadelphia -2.5! |
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06-05-21 | Bucks v. Nets -3.5 | Top | 107-115 | Win | 100 | 24 h 16 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Bucks/Nets NBA Playoffs PLAY OF THE MONTH (Nets -3.5) I love Brooklyn -3.5 at home in Game 1 of their Eastern Conference Semifinal matchup with the Bucks. I not only think the Nets take a 1-0 series lead, I could easily see them winning this game by double-digits. Milwaukee is a good team, but I think they are a little overvalued coming off their sweep of the Heat. The Bucks definitely looked impressive, but you can't overlook how bad Miami shot the ball in that series. The Heat shot 39.5% from the field for the series. They also go from facing a team that's only superstar was Jimmy Butler, to facing a Nets team that has 3 of the best players in the game in Durant, Irving and Harden. Milwaukee did win 2 of 3 in the regular-season, taking the last two in the series at home. It took all they had to get those two wins and the Nets didn't have Harden. Brooklyn won at home without Irving. Give me the Nets -3.5! |
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06-02-21 | Hawks v. Knicks -1 | Top | 103-89 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Hawks/Knicks MAX UNIT Top Play (Knicks -1) I've had a lot of success in this series. I passed on Game 1 to just get a feel for the matchup. I won and covered with the Knicks -2 in Game 2 and then cashed on the Hawks -4 and -4.5 in Games 3 and 4. I will keep on firing in this series, as I absolutely love the value here with the Knicks -1 at home facing elimination down 3-1 in the series. I've said I think NY is a bit overvalued because their regular-season record is more off of effort than it is talent, that doesn't mean they aren't a good team. If they can just get their offense going, the energy at the Garden combined with the effort defensively, should keep the Hawks offense in check. Julius Randle by far had his best game of the series in Game 4. I think he breaks out with a huge game here, as I could see the Knicks blowing this thing wide open. Give me New York -1! |
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06-02-21 | Wizards +6 v. 76ers | 112-129 | Loss | -102 | 10 h 35 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Situational VEGAS STEAMROLLER (Wizards +6) I think because the 76ers are up 3-1 in the series and playing at home, it has Philadelphia way overvalued in Game 5. More than likely the 76ers find a way to win one of these next 3 games, but I'm not 100% convinced they will. If Embiid doesn't come back (doubtful Game 5), Washington could easily win 4 straight and take the series. That's how huge Embiid is to the 76ers success. The Wizards had no answer for him in the first 3 games. His absence completely changes the mindset of Washington. They have to really think they can do this with him out. I just think this line should be closer to -3 without Embiid. Keep in mind the 76ers were -8 in Game 1 and -8.5 in Game 2 with Embiid on the floor. Give me the Wizards +6! |
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06-01-21 | Lakers v. Suns -5 | 85-115 | Win | 100 | 13 h 34 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Lakers/Suns VEGAS INSIDER (Suns -5) Nothing is a sure thing when LeBron is involved, but I feel pretty confident that LA will lose this series if AD doesn't come back. As good as LeBron is, it's asking too much from him to carry this team without Davis on the floor, especially against a top tier team like the Suns. I also love that the Suns have Chris Paul. He's going to make sure that no one on Phoenix takes this game lightly because AD isn't playing. He will have them 100% locked in to take care of business and go up 3-2 in this series. It's really a must-win game for Phoenix if they want to win the series. There's no guarantee they can beat LA on the road without AD, especially in a close out game. Suns get the job done. Give me Phoenix -5! |
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06-01-21 | Blazers v. Nuggets -2 | 140-147 | Win | 100 | 12 h 34 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) Blazers/Nuggets ATS NO-BRAINER (Nuggets -2) I'll take my chances with the Nuggets winning the all important Game 5 at home on Tuesday. I'm shocked that Denver isn't a bigger home favorite. I know the Blazers just won Game 4 by 20, but it was pretty clear that the Nuggets just didn't have that same energy we saw in Games 2 and 3 after they lost Game 1. Denver did their job and got back home court. If there was a game they were going to come out flat it was Game 5. Losing by 20 looks bad, but it also lights the fire that much more. I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Nuggets controlled this game from start to finish. Give me Denver -2! |
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05-31-21 | Jazz v. Grizzlies +5.5 | Top | 120-113 | Loss | -102 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Jazz/Grizzlies MAX UNIT Top Play (Grizzlies +5.5) We took a tough loss on Memphis in Game 3 at basically the same price, as the Grizzlies lost by double-digits after leading in the final 5 minutes. Give Utah credit for how they closed out that game, but I think Memphis showed a lot fighting back to take that late lead after really not playing up to their potential for the majority of that game. Also not a lot you can do with Utah making 19 3's on 44% shooting. Memphis only shot 43% from the field and 32% from deep. I think there's a good chance we see the Grizzlies shoot better in Game 4, while the Jazz regress a little bit. I like the Grizzlies to win this game, but I'll take the points for a little added insurance. Give me Memphis +5.5! |
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05-30-21 | Nets -7 v. Celtics | Top | 141-126 | Win | 100 | 21 h 26 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Sunday MAX UNIT Top Play (Nets -7) I love the Nets to blowout the Celtics in Game 4. Boston played a near perfect game and got 50 from Jason Tatum and still almost lost Game 3 at home. I just don't see the Celtics doing what they did offensively in Game 4. Brooklyn got the wakeup call they needed in Game 3. They are going to be 100% locked in on both sides of the ball in this one. The Celtics simply don't have the talent to make a game of it. Look for the Nets to pull away and win this one by double-digits. Give me Brooklyn -7! |
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05-30-21 | Knicks v. Hawks -4.5 | 96-113 | Win | 100 | 15 h 26 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Smart Money VEGAS INSIDER (Hawks -4.5) I will gladly take my chances with the Hawks as a 4.5-point home favorite against the Knicks in Game 4. We won with Atlanta in Game 3, as the Hawks went on to win 105-94. I backed Atlanta in that game because I just don't trust this Knicks team in the playoffs. I just feel like teams coached by Thibs are extremely overrated in the playoffs. They play hard defense in the regular-season, which leads to a lot of wins, but everyone plays hard defense in the playoffs. Knicks also are struggling to score. Julius Randle has been a complete non-factor. Outside of Rose, no one is doing much. Trae Young is the best player on the floor and he seems built for this stage. I just don't see the Hawks losing at home here. Give me Atlanta -4.5! |
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05-29-21 | Jazz v. Grizzlies +5 | Top | 121-111 | Loss | -101 | 36 h 8 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Jazz/Grizzlies MAX UNIT Top Play (Grizzlies +5) I will take a shot with the Grizzlies as a 5-point home dog against the Jazz in Game 3. Utah won Game 2 141-129 to even the series at 1-1. A lot of people will attribute the Jazz winning Game 2 to the return of Donovan Mitchell. While Mitchell played great in his first game back from a long absence, it was just one of those nights for the entire Jazz team. Everything they threw at the rim was going in. Utah shot 54.4% from the field and were 19-39 (48.7%) from behind the 3-point line. What people overlook is that the Grizzlies also finished that game shooting 54.1% from the field. The only real difference in the game was 3-point shooting. Grizzlies made 11 fewer 3's going just 8-23 (34.8%) from deep. With the series shifting from Utah to Memphis, we should see the Jazz's 3-point shooting regress and for the Grizzlies to be a little better. I would not be surprised at all if Memphis won this game. Give me the Grizzlies +5! |
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05-29-21 | 76ers v. Wizards +5.5 | 132-103 | Loss | -100 | 33 h 24 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (Wizards +5.5) I'll roll the dice with the Wizards as a 5.5-point home dog against the 76ers in Game 3 on Saturday. I'm pretty confident Philly is going to win this series, but I also don't think Washington is going to go down without a fight. Not with two superstars. Bradley Beal has been great in the first two games. He put up 33 in Game 1 and followed it up with another 33 in Game 2. He's shot 53.3% from the field in the series, despite going a mere 2-12 (16.7%) from behind the 3-point line. I'm excited to see what we get out Russell Westbrook. Not only does he desperately want to help his team avoid a 0-3 hole, but I see him coming out with a chip on his shoulder after how mad he was about the popcorn incident in Game 2. Philadelphia's offense is also just not the same on the road as it is at home. 76ers are scoring close to 118 ppg at home compared to just 110 ppg on the road. Give me the Wizards +5.5! |
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05-28-21 | Clippers -2 v. Mavs | 118-108 | Win | 100 | 24 h 45 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Late Night VEGAS STEAMROLLER (Clippers -2) I'll take my chances with the Clippers finding a way to win Game 3 and avoid going down 0-3 in the series to the Mavs. Props to Dallas for taking Game 1 and 2 on the road, but they far from dominated. I just think the Clippers are going to do a better job defensively than they have. After letting Dallas shoot 50% in Game 1, the Mavs shot 58.5% in Game 2. Some of that is the Mavs just made shots. Just because they are going home, doesn't mean they are going to be better offensively than they have been. The Clippers are just too talented a team to go down 0-3. Mavs are also a young team that maybe doesn't know the importance of not taking your foot off the gas. Give me Dallas -2! |
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05-28-21 | Knicks v. Hawks -4 | Top | 94-105 | Win | 100 | 21 h 13 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Knicks/Hawks MAX UNIT Top Play (Hawks -4) I love the Hawks at -4 in Game 3 against the Knicks on Friday. I thought Atlanta played exceptionally well on the road in the first two games of this series. They were dangerously close to going up 2-0 and that was with New York in a must-win situation. I like Thibs, but I think his teams are overrated in the playoffs. The biggest reason they are so good in the regular-season, they play with playoff-like intensity every single game. You can win a lot of regular-season games on just effort. In the playoffs, everyone is playing at that level. I loved them with their backs against the wall at home in Game 2, but I think the Knicks are going to struggle to keep this one close. Give me the Hawks -4! |
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05-27-21 | Nuggets v. Blazers -3.5 | Top | 120-115 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Thursday MAX UNIT Top Play (Blazers -3.5) I absolutely love the Blazers as a slim 3.5-point home favorite in Game 3 of their first round series with the Nuggets. Portland won Game 1 of the series 123-109, but as expected Denver came back with all they had and evened up the series with a 128-109 win in Game 2. I just don't think the Nuggets are going to be able to go on the road and keep it close against what I feel is a much deeper and talented Blazers team. Denver has had no answer for Damian Lillard, who is averaging 38 ppg and 11.5 apg in the series. I look for Lillard to keep doing what he does, but we should also see an uptick in production from the role players in front of the home crowd. Opposite for Denver. Look for their role players to struggle a little more on the road. Give me the Blazers -3.5! |
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05-27-21 | Bucks v. Heat +2 | 113-84 | Loss | -113 | 9 h 10 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Smart Money VEGAS INSIDER (Heat +2) I will take a shot with the Heat in Game 3 against the Bucks. It's not Game 7, but this is a MUST WIN for Miami after losing the first two games in Milwaukee. Heat fall down 0-3 in the series, they are done for. As bad as Miami looked in their 98-132 loss in Game 2, there wasn't a lot they could do given the 46-point haymaker the Nets landed in the 1st quarter. You never expect a team to start that bad, but you have to wonder if Miami didn't suffer a mental letdown after that heartbreaking 2-point loss in OT in Game 1. I also think it's a little harder on the Bucks to come out swinging after a blowout win like that in Game 2. I certainly don't see them making another 22 3-pointers in Game 3. I just trust Miami to deliver in this spot. Give me the Heat +2! |
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05-26-21 | Hawks v. Knicks -2 | Top | 92-101 | Win | 100 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
50* (NBA) Hawks/Knicks MAX UNIT Top Play (Knicks -2) I will gladly take my chances with the Knicks as a slim 2-point home favorite in Game 2. Atlanta won Game 1 107-105, which means New York will be desperate to get this thing tied up 1-1 as they head to Atlanta for Game 3 on Sunday. All the talk from Game 1 is about how good Trae Young was for the Hawks. He was special. Young had 32 points with 10 assists and 7 rebounds. For Young to play that well and New York's star player Julius Randle to have only 15 points on 6-23 shooting, you would expect the Hawks to win by more. I just think the Knicks are poised to not only win Game 2, but win this one going away. Give me New York -2! |
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05-25-21 | Celtics v. Nets -9.5 | 108-130 | Win | 101 | 10 h 27 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (Nets -9.5) I got no problem laying the 9-points with the Nets at home in Game 2 against the Celtics. Brooklyn won Game 1 by 11 points 104-93. They did so after a very sluggish start. Nets were a different team in the 2nd half, outscoring Boston 57 to 40. They also won by double-digits with Durant, Irving and Harden going a combined 5-24 (20.8%) from behind the 3-point line. I don't see those 3 shooting as poorly in Game 2. On the flip side, I think people are underestimating this Brooklyn defense. Jason Tatum had 22 points, but he had to work for 22 and wasn't that efficient (6 for 20). No other Celtics player had more than 17. Look for the Nets to continue to focus on Tatum and make the other guys try to beat them. I don't think they can. Give me the Nets -9.5! |
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05-24-21 | Blazers v. Nuggets -1.5 | 109-128 | Win | 100 | 13 h 8 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Blazers/Nuggets Vegas STEAMROLLER (Nuggets -1.5) I will take my chances with the Nuggets as a slim -1.5 home favorite against the Blazers in Game 2. Portland got the best of Denver in Game 1, winning 123-109. It was a great performance by Portland, who shot 47% from the field and 48% from behind the 3-point line. They also were 18 of 19 from the foul line, while Denver was a mere 4 of 8. I just think everything that could have went right for Portland, did in Game 1. I'm confident the Nuggets bounce back and send this series back to Portland tied up 1-1. Give me Denver -1.5! |
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05-23-21 | Lakers v. Suns -2.5 | Top | 90-99 | Win | 100 | 30 h 42 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Lakers/Suns MAX UNIT Top Play (Suns -2.5) I love the Suns as a mere 2.5-point home favorite against the Lakers in Game 1 of their series that starts on Sunday. I really expected more out of the Lakers in their play-in game against the Warriors. Yes they were able to win, but it was a struggle. LeBron hit the big shot at the end, but still only finished with 22 points on 7 of 17 shooting. The explosiveness just wasn't there. I also think there could be a bit of an emotional letdown for the Lakers. I know it wasn't do or die in their game against the Warriors, but that was a huge game for them. You also have to look at the Suns. Phoenix nearly passed the Jazz for the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference. Like the Warriors, the Suns can get after you defensively. I also think they got a big edge here in guard play with Chris Paul and Devin Booker. Add in the home court and I just think the Suns will have no problem getting a win in Game 1. Give me Phoenix -2.5! |
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05-23-21 | Wizards v. 76ers -7 | 118-125 | Push | 0 | 27 h 12 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Wizards/76ers Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (76ers -7) I will roll the dice here with the 76ers as a 7-point home favorite against the Wizards. I've been backing Washington a lot of late, but this is one spot I will go against them. Washington lost to the Celtics on Tuesday for the No. 7 seed, but came back on Thursday to blowout the Pacers for the No. 8 seed. I just think this is a big letdown spot for the Wizards after just playing in a win or go home game a couple of days ago. Not to mention they are on the road against a very good 76ers team that I think doesn't get near the hype it deserves. A lot of that is just no one thinks anyone is getting in the way of the Nets in the east. Philly is loaded, healthy and extremely tough to beat at home. I see them winning here by double-digits rather easily. Give me the 76ers -7! |
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05-22-21 | Mavs v. Clippers -5 | Top | 113-103 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 10 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Mavs/Clippers MAX UNIT Top Play (Clippers -5) I love the Clippers as a mere 5-point home favorite against the Mavs in Game 1 of their playoff series. I don't think LA is getting enough respect not just in this game, but just in general. There's just not the hype around this team that there was last year or early on this season. I think everything the Clippers have done was to get ready for the playoffs. I believe we are about to see a completely different team. I also think this is a really tough matchup for the Mavs. LA is every bit as good as Dallas offensively, but are by far the better defensive team. I think the Clippers' defense and the homecourt edge will propel them to a comfortable win. Give me the Clippers -5! |
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05-22-21 | Heat +5 v. Bucks | 107-109 | Win | 100 | 16 h 44 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) Heat/Bucks Early Bird STEAMROLLER (Heat +5) I will roll the dice with the Heat as a 5-point road dog against the Bucks in Game 1 of their first round matchup. All the talk going into this series is about how Milwaukee is going to get their revenge on Miami after the Heat eliminated them from the postseason a year ago. I'm just not buying it. I think people are sleeping on this Heat team going into the playoffs. No one is talking about the reigning Eastern Conference Champs. A lot of that has to do with how their regular-season went. They really struggled early. However, that was to be expected. What matters is they finished strong. I also love the fact that Miami has a gameplan and the pieces to slow down Antetokounmpo. He's only averaging 18.6 ppg in his career against the Heat. I'll take the points for some insurance, but I like Miami to go up 1-0. Give me the Heat +5! |
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05-20-21 | Pacers v. Wizards -3.5 | Top | 115-142 | Win | 100 | 35 h 40 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Thursday NBA Play-In MAX UNIT Top Play (Wizards -3.5) I will gladly take the Wizards -3.5 at home against the Pacers in Thursday's winner take all matchup in the Play-In Tournament. Washington watched a halftime lead evaporate in a 100-118 loss at Boston. Wizards couldn't buy a 3-pointer, as they shot just 3 for 21 and it didn't help that Jason Tatum went off for 50. Pacers beat Charlotte 144-117 even after LeVert was a late scratch. I'm just not buying that performance from Indiana. They couldn't have shot it any better and the Hornets are awful defensively. Washington's defense will put up a much bigger fight and the Wizards have the two best players on the floor in Westbrook and Beal. Give me Washington -3.5! |
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05-19-21 | Warriors v. Lakers -5 | 100-103 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 33 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Smart Money VEGAS INSIDER (Lakers -5) I just can't help myself here with the Lakers as a mere 5-point home favorite against the Warriors. No way anyone thought LA would be in the play-in game. They definitely wouldn't have been had injuries not derailed their season. Good news is they got all their key guys back, including their two stars AD and LeBron. I know LeBron is going to be less than 100%, but this is LeBron James we are talking about. He will be fine. I just think it's a bigger mismatch than people realize. I know Steph Curry is playing out of his mind, but he's going to have to score 50 just for Golden State to keep it close. Give me the Lakers -5! |
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05-18-21 | Hornets +3.5 v. Pacers | Top | 117-144 | Loss | -114 | 20 h 47 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Play-In Tournament MAX UNIT Top Play (Hornets +3.5) I really like Charlotte to win this game, making them a no-brainer at +3.5. The Hornets lost their last 5 games, but I liked what I seen out of this team in those losses. They really should have beat the Wizards in the regular-season finale to be the No. 8 seed. Charlotte has got a lot of key guys back in recent weeks. I just feel the Hornets are the much better team. The Pacers are without a huge piece in Myles Turner, as he made a huge impact on both ends of the floor. They also got a lot of other guys banged up and really haven't been the same team since trading Oladipo. I just don't think playing at home will be enough to propel them in this spot. Give me the Hornets +3.5! |
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05-16-21 | Clippers -8 v. Thunder | 112-117 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 55 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (Clippers -8) I'll roll the dice here with the Clippers as a 8-point road favorite against OKC. I know LA just rested everyone and lost outright as a 7-point favorite at the Rockets on Friday, but I think that was just more of a planned off day for all the key guys in the 2nd game of a back-to-back. I don't think they sit everyone on Sunday, as they get the rest of the week off while the play-in tournament goes on. The other big key here is that OKC does not want to win this game. Thunder need to lose to ensure they finish at least tied for the 3rd worst record. Tanking is clearly a priority for OKC. They are 1-23 in their last 24 games. I know there's the narrative that LA should lose to avoid being the No. 3 seed and potentially having to face the Lakers in the first round, but it's unlikely the Lakers surpass the Blazers for that No. 6 spot. I also don't think they are scared of the Lakers and wouldn't you want to play them early compared to late when they have had a chance to regain their chemistry. Give me the Clippers -8! |
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05-16-21 | Hornets v. Wizards -6 | 110-115 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 39 m | Show | |
40* (NBA) - Situational ATS SLAUGHTER (Wizards -6) I will gladly lay the 6-points with the Wizards at home in their big showdown with the Hornets. A lot at stake here, as the winner will likely by the No. 8 seed and get to go to Boston on Tuesday for a shot to be the No. 7 seed. The loser moves to the No. 10 seed (assuming Pacers beat the Raptors) and will have to travel to Indiana for a win or go home matchup on Wednesday. Keep in mind the winner can lose to the Celtics and still make it as the No. 8 by beating the winner or the No.9/No. 10 game. With Bradley Beal being upgraded from out to questionable, I think there's a good chance he plays here with what's at stake. Even if he doesn't I still like Washington to win by 7 or more. I just think they are the much better team and in a much better spot. Hornets just played a OT game at New York on Saturday. A game that saw 6 different players log 30 or more minutes with Rozier logging a team high 46 (Graham and McDaniels also had at least 40 minutes). Keep in mind the Wizards were off yesterday. Give me Washington -6! |
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