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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-21-24 | Mavs v. Clippers UNDER 223 | Top | 97-109 | Win | 100 | 7 h 48 m | Show |
10* NBA Mavs/Clippers VEGAS INSIDER PLAY ON: UNDER 223 |
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04-19-24 | Bulls v. Heat UNDER 205.5 | Top | 91-112 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
10* NBA Friday Play-In VEGAS INSIDER PLAY ON: Bulls/Heat UNDER 205.5 |
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04-17-24 | Heat v. 76ers UNDER 208.5 | Top | 104-105 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
10* NBA Vegas Insider TOP PLAY PLAY ON: Heat/76ers UNDER 208.5 |
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04-16-24 | Lakers v. Pelicans UNDER 224.5 | Top | 110-106 | Win | 100 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
10* NBA Tuesday Play-In VEGAS INSIDER PLAY ON: Lakers/Pelicans UNDER 224.5 |
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04-09-24 | Magic v. Rockets OVER 214 | Top | 106-118 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
10* NBA Over/Under PLAY OF THE WEEK PLAY ON: Magic/Rockets OVER 214 |
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03-24-24 | Yale v. San Diego State UNDER 129 | Top | 57-85 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 35 m | Show |
10* NCAAB Late Night PLAY OF THE WEEK PLAY ON: Yale/San Diego St UNDER 129 |
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03-18-24 | Knicks v. Warriors UNDER 211.5 | Top | 119-112 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
10* NBA Non-Conf TOTAL OF THE WEEK PLAY ON: Knicks/Warriors UNDER 211.5 |
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03-16-24 | Knicks v. Kings UNDER 219.5 | Top | 98-91 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
10* NBA Non-Conf TOTAL OF THE WEEK PLAY ON: Kings/Knicks UNDER 219.5 |
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03-15-24 | San Diego State v. Utah State UNDER 137 | Top | 86-70 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
10* NCAAB MWC Total PLAY OF THE MONTH PLAY ON: SD State/Utah St UNDER 137.5 |
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03-14-24 | Knicks v. Blazers UNDER 205.5 | Top | 105-93 | Win | 100 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
10* NBA Vegas Insider TOP PLAYÂ PLAY ON: Knicks/Blazers UNDER 205.5 |
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03-13-24 | Hawks v. Blazers OVER 218 | Top | 102-106 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
10* NBA Non-Conf PLAY OF THE MONTH PLAY ON: Hawks/Blazers OVER 218 |
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03-12-24 | Wisc-Milwaukee v. Oakland UNDER 151.5 | Top | 76-83 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
10* NCAAB Horizon PLAY OF THE MONTH PLAY ON: Milwaukee/Oakland UNDER 151.5 |
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03-11-24 | Mavs v. Bulls UNDER 233 | Top | 127-92 | Win | 100 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
10* NBA Non-Conf TOTAL OF THE WEEK PLAY ON: Bulls/Mavs UNDER 233 |
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03-04-24 | Clippers v. Bucks UNDER 227 | Top | 106-113 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
10* NBA Non-Conf TOTAL OF THE MONTH PLAY ON: Clippers/Bucks UNDER 227 |
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02-28-24 | Minnesota v. Illinois OVER 154.5 | Top | 97-105 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
10* NCAAB Over/Under PLAY OF THE WEEK PLAY ON: Minnesota/Illinois OVER 154.5 |
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02-16-24 | New Mexico v. San Diego State UNDER 152.5 | Top | 70-81 | Win | 100 | 14 h 37 m | Show |
10* NCAAB MWC PLAY OF THE MONTH PLAY ON: New Mexico/San Diego St UNDER 152.5 |
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02-03-24 | Nets v. 76ers OVER 232.5 | Top | 136-121 | Win | 100 | 9 h 40 m | Show |
10* NBA Vegas Insider PLAY OF THE MONTH PLAY ON: Nets/76ers OVER 232.5 |
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02-01-24 | Wisconsin v. Nebraska OVER 144.5 | Top | 72-80 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
10* NCAAB Over/Under PLAY OF THE WEEK PLAY ON: Wisconsin/Nebraska OVER 144.5 |
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01-31-24 | Magic v. Spurs OVER 227.5 | Top | 108-98 | Loss | -112 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
10* NBA Over/Under PLAY OF THE WEEK PLAY ON: OVER 227.5 |
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01-18-24 | Oregon State v. Utah OVER 143.5 | Top | 47-74 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
10* NCAAB Pac-12 TOTAL OF THE MONTH PLAY ON: Oregon St/Utah OVER 143.5 |
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12-29-23 | Bucks v. Cavs OVER 239.5 | Top | 119-111 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
10* NBA - Vegas Insider TOP PLAY PLAY ON: Bucks/Cavs OVER 239.5 |
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12-28-23 | Pacers v. Bulls OVER 240.5 | Top | 120-104 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
10* NBA Vegas Insider TOP PLAYÂ PLAY ON: Pacers/Bulls OVER 240.5 |
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12-27-23 | Bucks v. Nets OVER 240.5 | Top | 144-122 | Win | 100 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
10* NBA - Over/Under PLAY OF THE WEEK PLAY ON: Bucks/Nets OVER 240.5 |
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12-17-23 | Wizards v. Suns OVER 245.5 | Top | 108-112 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
10* NBA Situational TOTAL NO-BRAINER PLAY ON: Wizards/Suns OVER 245.5 |
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12-15-23 | Connecticut v. Gonzaga UNDER 151.5 | Top | 76-63 | Win | 100 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
10* NCAAB Late Night PLAY OF THE WEEK PLAY ON: Gonzaga/UConn UNDER 151.5 |
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12-12-23 | Nuggets v. Bulls OVER 219.5 | Top | 114-106 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
10* NBA Vegas Insider TOP PLAYÂ PLAY ON: Nuggets/Bulls OVER 219.5 |
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12-06-23 | Hornets v. Bulls OVER 219.5 | Top | 100-111 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 15 m | Show |
10* NBA - Over/Under VEGAS INSIDER PLAY ON: Hornets/Bulls OVER 219.5 |
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12-05-23 | Providence v. Oklahoma UNDER 142.5 | Top | 51-72 | Win | 100 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
10* NCAAB - Over/Under PLAY OF THE WEEK PLAY ON: Oklahoma/Providence UNDER 142.5 |
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12-01-23 | Wizards v. Magic OVER 237.5 | Top | 125-130 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
10* NBA Vegas Insider TOP PLAY PLAY ON: OVER 237.5 |
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11-25-23 | 76ers v. Thunder OVER 228.5 | Top | 127-123 | Win | 100 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
10* NBA - 76ers/Thunder TOP PLAY PLAY ON: Over 2228.5 |
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11-19-23 | Magic v. Pacers OVER 236.5 | Top | 128-116 | Win | 100 | 5 h 22 m | Show |
10* NBA - Vegas Insider Top Play PLAY ON: Magic/Pacers OVER 236.5 |
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11-11-23 | Arkansas State v. Bowling Green OVER 156.5 | Top | 75-81 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 9 m | Show |
10* NCAAB Ark St/Bowling Green VEGAS INSIDER PLAY ON BOWLING GREEN/ARK STATE OVER 156.5 |
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11-08-23 | Spurs v. Knicks OVER 221.5 | Top | 105-126 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
10* NBA Spurs/Knicks VEGAS INSIDER PLAY ON SPURS/KNICKS OVER 221.5 |
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11-03-23 | Knicks v. Bucks OVER 223.5 | Top | 105-110 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
10* NBA Bucks/Knicks VEGAS INSIDER PLAY ON BUCKS/KNICKS OVER 223.5 |
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10-29-23 | Spurs v. Clippers OVER 227 | Top | 83-123 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
10* NBA Spurs/Clippers VEGAS INSIDER PLAY ON SPURS/CLIPPERS OVER 227 |
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10-24-23 | Suns v. Warriors OVER 234.5 | Top | 108-104 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
10* NBA Suns/Warriors VEGAS INSIDERÂ PLAY ON SUNS/WARRIORS OVER 234.5 |
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06-01-23 | Heat v. Nuggets OVER 219 | Top | 93-104 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
10* NBA Heat/Nuggets VEGAS INSIDER PLAY ON HEAT/NUGGETS OVER 219 |
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05-27-23 | Celtics v. Heat UNDER 210.5 | Top | 104-103 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
10* NBA Celtics/Heat VEGAS INSIDERÂ PLAY ON CELTICS/HEAT UNDER 210.5 |
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05-19-23 | Heat v. Celtics UNDER 216 | Top | 111-105 | Push | 0 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
10* NBA Heat/Celtics VEGAS INSIDER PLAY ON HEAT/CELTICS UNDER 216 |
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05-08-23 | Warriors v. Lakers UNDER 227.5 | Top | 101-104 | Win | 100 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
10* NBA Warriors/Lakers VEGAS INSIDERÂ PLAY ON WARRIORS/LAKERS UNDER 227.5 |
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05-03-23 | 76ers v. Celtics UNDER 217 | Top | 87-121 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
10* NBA 76ers/Celtics VEGAS INSIDERÂ PLAY ON 76ERS/CELTICS UNDER 217 |
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04-29-23 | Suns v. Nuggets OVER 226 | Top | 107-125 | Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
10* NBA Suns/Nuggets VEGAS INSIDERÂ PLAY ON SUNS/NUGGETS OVER 226 |
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04-12-23 | Thunder v. Pelicans UNDER 227 | Top | 123-118 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
10* NBA Thunder/Pelicans PLAYOFF INSIDER PLAY ON THUNDER/PELICANS UNDER 227 |
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04-05-23 | Lakers v. Clippers UNDER 230 | Top | 118-125 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
10* NBA Lakers/Clippers VEGAS INSIDERÂ PLAY ON LAKERS/CLIPPERS UNDER 230 |
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03-20-23 | Mavs v. Grizzlies OVER 229.5 | Top | 108-112 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
10* NBA Over/Under PLAY OF THE MONTH PLAY ON MAVS/GRIZZLIES OVER 229.5: These two teams should have no problem eclipsing 230 points. I believe there's some value with this total due to the questionable tags on both Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic. I think both play. Irving returned from a 3-game absence on Friday and played 39 minutes. Doncic didn't play in that game, but he did practice fully on Thursday. Dallas has had the last two days off. That's quite a boost to their offense, which is averaging just 110.0 ppg over their last 5. Key is that Doncic and Irving are not good defenders. You don't got much shot containing this Memphis offense, even without Morant, if you aren't fully connected on the defensive end. Grizzlies defense hasn't been great of late, giving up 119+ in each of their last 3. Give me the OVER 229.5! |
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03-08-23 | Raptors v. Clippers OVER 229 | Top | 100-108 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
10* NBA Non-Conf TOTAL OF THE WEEK PLAY ON RAPTORS/CLIPPERS OVER 229: I don't see these two teams having any problem eclipsing 230 points in this game. Clippers have been in a lot of high-scoring games of late. OVER is 6-2 in LA's last 8 games. In 4 of their last 6, they have scored and allowed 120+ points in the same game. OVER is 3-0 in the last 3 for the Raptors. Toronto should be able to take advantage of the Clippers lackluster defense. I also don't see them slowing down LA's offense, especially on the road. Give me the OVER 229! |
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03-06-23 | Pelicans v. Kings OVER 236.5 | Top | 108-123 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
10* NBA Over/Under VEGAS INSIDER PLAY ON PELICANS/KINGS OVER 236.5: Until the Kings cool off or start trying on the defensive end, the OVER has to be in serious consideration whenever they play. Since returning from the All-Star break, Sacramento has played 6 games and scored at least 123 in every game (over 130 points 3 times). They have shot better than 50% from the field in all of these games. During this run the Kings have allowed at least 115 points in every game. If we just take the two low marks during this run (123 and 115) that puts us at 238 points. The total should at least be that and even then I think there's value with the OVER. Give me the OVER 236.5! |
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02-27-23 | West Virginia v. Iowa State OVER 134 | Top | 72-69 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
10* NCAAB Big 12 Total PLAY OF THE MONTH PLAY ON IOWA STATE/WEST VIRGINIA OVER 134: I'm well aware of how bad the Cyclones offense has been in their last 3 games. Really bad. I like them to get back on track playing on their home floor. West Virginia is not a great defensive team and they have struggled to play well on that side of the ball in road games. They are allowing 46.6% shooting from the field away from home. ISU, who has shot 31% or worse twice in their last 3 games, is shooting 46.5% from the field in home games this season. These are also two teams that are really good at playing in chaos. ISU is No. 2 in the country in TO% defense. WV is a solid 50th in that department, they do an amazing job of speeding up their opponents with that press. Mountaineer opponents only average 16.7 seconds per possession, which is the 14th best mark in the country. I also look at the recent matchups between these two teams. Going back to the 2013 season, the lowest combined score in a game between ISU/W Virginia is 135 points back in 2020. The OVER is 13-1 in the L14 meetings! They combined for 147 points in a 76-71 Mountaineer win at home back on Feb. 8th. Give me the OVER 134! |
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02-16-23 | Ohio State v. Iowa OVER 152.5 | Top | 75-92 | Win | 100 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
10* NCAAB Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER PLAY ON OHIO STATE/IOWA OVER 152.5: I wanted to bet Iowa in this game, but I feel like the number here has been inflated to where there's just not enough value. I like the Hawkeyes largely because of how good they have been at home. Thing is, not only have they been great (11-3 ATS), the OVER has been great (10-4). That makes sense. Iowa likes to play super fast. While they have some good offensive players and are very efficiency (5th in the country), they aren't a great 3-PT shooting team (134th). Teams tend to shoot better at home. That's definitely the case for Iowa. Hawkeyes are scoring 89.0 ppg and shooting 38.5% at home this season (80.6 ppg and 35.1% on the season). Overs are also great at home with Iowa, because they aren't a very good defensive team. Opposing teams are shooting 48.6% from the field and 38% from 3 against them in conference play. Buckeyes are a shocking 1-11 over their last 12 games, but are 25th in offensive efficiency. They scored 93 points on 56.3% shooting. I think both teams easily eclipse the 70 point mark and this thing flies past the number. Give me the OVER 152.5! |
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02-15-23 | Mavs v. Nuggets OVER 231.5 | Top | 109-118 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
10* NBA Over/Under PLAY OF THE WEEK PLAY ON MAVS/NUGGETS OVER 231.5: I'll take my chances with the OVER 231.5 in Wednesday's matchup between the Mavs and Nuggets. I mentioned this when I took the OVER in the Mavs' last game, I just don't think the books have properly adjusted for how much better the Mavs got offensively when they adding in Kyrie Irving. Teaming two of the NBA's most skilled offensive players together. We are just in the baby stages of this and it looks great. At least offensively. The defense is a different story. It's been bad and that was to be expected. The had to give up some good depth pieces in that trade and Irving's not exactly known for his defense. All of it adds up the total just not being high-enough. I think on a below-average night this Mavs offense will put up close to 120. With Dallas' defensive struggles and how good the Nuggets are offensively, they too should easily hit 120. This total should be closer to 240. Give me the OVER 231.5! |
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02-13-23 | Wolves v. Mavs OVER 231.5 | Top | 124-121 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
10* NBA Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER Play on Timberwolves/Mavericks OVER 231.5: I just think there's tremendous value with the OVER in Mavs games right now. Dallas, who already had one of the best offensive players in the NBA in Doncic, added one of the best offensive players in the NBA in Kyrie Irving. Everything so far, looks like its going to work. Kyrie is playing amazing and in their first game with Irving/Doncic, the Mavs shot 52% from the field, with 20 made 3-pointers. Key here to the OVER, is while Irving is a nightmare on offense, he's not the best defendender. In that same game, Dallas allowed the Kings to shoot 51% from the field, as they lost 128-133 in OT. First game they will be together at home and they are facing a Timberwolves team that is giving up 116.8 ppg on the road this season and have allowed 123.4 ppg on 53% shooting over their last 5 games. Feels like a game where the Mavs can easily hit 130 points. That alone should have this total in the 240s. Give me the OVER 231.5! |
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01-25-23 | Raptors v. Kings OVER 237 | Top | 113-95 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
10* NBA Over/Under PLAY OF THE WEEK PLAY ON RAPTORS/KINGS OVER 237: I will gladly take my chances with the OVER 237 in Wednesday's non-conference clash between the Raptors and Kings. I think the spread can sometimes give you a good feel for how the books see the game playing out. The fact that Toronto was just a 4.5-point dog when the line opened and has dropped to 3.5, tells me the books like the Raptors in this spot. Given that the Raptors have are 6-games under .500 and losers of 3 of their last 4, the books know everyone is going to be on Sacramento, given the Kings come in having won 7 of their last 8 and fresh off a 133-100 blowout win over the Grizzlies. I'm not quite ready to bet against the Kings as a small home favorite, but I do think there's big time value with the OVER. Given how good the Kings offense is, especially at home (124.7 ppg), you have to think the only way for Toronto to cover is for them to win in a shootout. I agree and I think I'm with the books in that we aren't going to get a huge effort defensively from Sacramento in this game. On the flip side, the Raptors just played a 3-game road trip at New York, Milwaukee and Minnesota, where they gave up 121 to the Knicks, 130 to the Bucks and 128 to the T-Wolves. This is one of those games where I will be shocked if both teams don't hit at least 120 points. Give me the OVER 237! |
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01-23-23 | Hawks v. Bulls UNDER 239.5 | Top | 100-111 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
10* NBA Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER PLAY ON UNDER 239.5: The total here is simply too high given the tough scheduling spots we find both of these teams. I got to think both of these teams are going to be looking to slow the tempo down. The Hawks are playing their 3rd game in 4 nights after a 139-124 blowout win over the Knicks on Friday and then a 118-122 loss at home to the Hornets on Saturday. Worth noting it's just not a bad short-term stretch for rest with the Hawks. This will also be their 7th game in the last 11 days. As for the Bulls, they are playing on a full 3 days of rest, but their last game was played in Paris. For this game to go over the number, both teams are likely going to have to score in the 120's. I wouldn't be shocked if neither team got to 120. Give me the UNDER 238.5! |
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01-11-23 | Rutgers v. Northwestern UNDER 126.5 | Top | 65-62 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
10* NCAAB Big Ten TOTAL OF THE MONTH: Rutgers/Northwestern UNDER 126.5 I love the UNDER 126.5 in Wednesday's Big Ten matchup between Rutgers and Northwestern. These aren't just two of the best defensive teams in the Big Ten, they are two of the best in the country. With two sub-par offenses on the court and two teams that prefer a slower pace, it will be a struggle for either team to get to 60 points. Northwestern is No. 10 in the country in defensive efficiency and 22nd in Effective FG%. Rutgers is No. 242 in effective FG% offense. Scarlet Knights are 282nd in 3P% and are facing a Northwestern defense that is No. 2 in 2P% defense. Rutgers is No. 3 in defensive efficiency and No. 9 in effective FG% defense. They are No. 7 in 3P% defense and No. 27 in 2P% defense. Northwestern is No. 337 in effective offensive FG%, No. 270 in 3P% and No. 341 in 2P%. Add in Rutgers being No. 246 in adjusted tempo and Northwestern being No. 232, I just don't know where the points are going to come from to get this close to this total. Give me the UNDER 126.5! |
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01-10-23 | Magic v. Blazers OVER 229.5 | Top | 109-106 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
10* NBA Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Magic/Blazers OVER 229.5 I'll take my chances with the OVER 229.5 in Tuesday's matchup between the Magic and Blazers. I don't see these two teams having much trouble eclipsing 230 points. Orlando will be playing this game on no rest after last night's 111-136 loss at Sacramento. OVER is 5-2 in the second leg of back-to-back games with Orlando this season. Magic are giving up 120 ppg in this spot. OVER is 4-1 in Portland's last 5 home games, with the lone exception being a game against the Hornets that went UNDER despite the two teams combining for 237 points. Blazers have put up 127.2 ppg during this 5-game home stretch. You got to go into this game expecting Portland to at the very least put up 120 points, which means we would need just 110 from Orlando to cash this ticket. A mark the Magic have hit in 13 of their last 16 games. Blazers allow 112.1 ppg on the season. I just think with how easy it's going to be on offense, the effort isn't going to be all that great on defense. As long as Orlando doesn't go ice cold in this game, we cash this easy. Give me the OVER 229.5! |
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01-05-23 | Clippers v. Nuggets OVER 227.5 | Top | 91-122 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
10* NBA Over/Under VEGAS INSIDER: Clippers/Nuggets OVER 227.5 I'll take my chances with the OVER 227.5 in Thursday's showdown between the Clippers and Nuggets. LA could be without Paul George for this game, which is a big loss for the Clippers offense. However, they should be just fine offensively against a leaky Denver defense that ranks 27th in defensive efficiency. These two teams combined for 110 in their previous meeting this season, but LA didn't have George or Kawhi Leonard. Kawhi has been playing consistently for a good stretch now and has put in 20+ points in 3 of his last 4 games. John Wall tormented Denver's defense for 23 points on 8 of 10 shooting in that first meeting. Leonard and Wall should provide a solid 1-2 punch in this one. As for the Clippers defense, it's certainly not as good without George on the floor. LA is a team that I think struggles to defend the big men inside and Denver has the best in the business down low in Jokic. Nuggets offense as a whole ranks 2nd in the NBA behind only the Celtics in offensive efficiency. Give me the OVER 227.5! |
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01-04-23 | Spurs v. Knicks OVER 226.5 | Top | 114-117 | Win | 100 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
10* NBA - Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH: Spurs/Knicks OVER 226.5 I'll take my chances with the OVER 226.5 in Wednesday's game between the Spurs and Knicks. There's not much you really need to look at here besides how recent San Antonio games have gone. The OVER has cashed in 8 straight and 11 of the last 12 games the Spurs have played. The only game that didn't was against the Heat, who play at one of the slowest paces in the league. San Antonio has allowed at least 115 points in 7 straight games, 6 times giving up 122 or more. They are scoring 115.5 ppg over their last 13. This team is built for shootouts and I just don't think this total should be less than 230. Knicks are extremely well rested. Their only game so far in January was Monday's 102-83 win at home over the Suns, where they coasted after getting a big lead early. I don't see them having any problem scoring 120+ points in this one. Spurs at the very least should give us around 110. That's more than enough to cash this ticket. Give me the OVER 226.5! |
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12-10-22 | Kansas v. Missouri OVER 152.5 | Top | 95-67 | Win | 100 | 6 h 19 m | Show |
10* NCAAB Over/Under VEGAS INSIDER: Kansas/Missouri OVER 152.5 I will gladly take my chances with the OVER 152.5 in Saturday's matchup between Missouri and Kansas. This to me feels like a race to 80 points. Missouri may be 9-0 because of their schedule, but don't let that fool you into thinking this isn't a good team. I think they landed a gem at head coach in Dennis Gates from Cleveland State. They got 3 guys who can get buckets with returning leading scorer Kobe Brown (14.3 ppg), Cleveland State transfer D'Moi Hodge (16.7 ppg) and UNI transfer Noah Carter. They also get double-digits from Fordham/Clemson transfer Nick Honor (10.0 ppg) and UMass/Bradley transfer Sean East II (10.0). They are No. 12 in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, No. 3 in Eff. FG% and No. 2 in 2-PT%. They play at the 4th fastest game tempo in the country and own the 8th shortest average in time of possession. They are No. 4 defensively in TO%. This team wants to run and gun and keep it movin. I don't see Kansas playing keep away. I think the Jayhawks will gladly turn this into a track meet. I also think they have the talent int he backcourt to not turn it over crazy. If you avoid the turnover, this Missouri defense has plenty of holes. Kansas ranks 51st in least amount of shot clock used. Yes they played a lower-scoring games vs Tennessee, Duke and Wisconsin, but all those teams rank outside the Top 125 in shot clock time used. Kansas has played 3 games vs teams who rank in the Top 65 in this stat. They combined for 158 in a 82-76 win over NC State (No. 39), combined for 154 with NC State in a 80-74 win (No. 43) and 156 in a 91-65 win over Seton Hall (No. 63). Give me the OVER 152.5! |
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12-09-22 | Bucks v. Mavs UNDER 224.5 | Top | 106-105 | Win | 100 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
10* NBA Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Bucks/Mavs UNDER 224.5 I'll take my chances with the UNDER 224.5 in Friday's showdown between the Bucks and Mavs on ESPN. I'm expecting a pretty big effort from these two in this nationally televised game. Milwaukee comes into this game ranked 3rd in the NBA in defensive efficiency and I really like the fact that they got an elite perimeter defender in Jrue Holiday to put on Luka Doncic. I also don't feel like the Mavs get enough respect on the defensive side of the ball at home. Dallas is only giving up 104.4 ppg on 45.9% shooting at home this year. The Bucks are also a different offensive team at home. Milwaukee is averaging 113.1 ppg on 46% shooting for the season, yet are scoring just 106.3 ppg on 43% shooting on the road. UNDER has cashed in 7 of the 9 road games for the Bucks this season. UNDER is 20-7 in the Mavs last 27 as a home dog and 9-1 in their last 10 at home when they are playing 8 or more games in a 14 day stretch. UNDER is 20-9 in Milwaukee's last 29 with a line of +3 to -3 and 18-8 in their last 26 as a road favorite of 6 or less. Give me the UNDER 224.5! |
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11-28-22 | Suns v. Kings OVER 231.5 | Top | 122-117 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
10* NBA Over/Under TOTAL PLAY OF THE WEEK: Suns/Kings OVER 231.5 I'll take my chances with the OVER 231.5 in Monday's NBA matchup between the Suns and Kings. I don't see these two teams having much trouble eclipsing this number. The Kings are seeing an average combined score of 241.8 ppg at home this season, as they are scoring 123.9 ppg and giving up 117.9 ppg. Phoenix is allowing just 107.7 ppg and 45.5% shooting for the season, but they are not the same defensive team on the road as they are at home. Suns are allowing 112.3 ppg and 48% shooting on the road. These are two of the most efficient offensive teams in the league, as they come in tied for 3rd in offensive efficiency at 113.4. Kings should be able to control the tempo here as well, as they are playing on a full 2 days of rest, while Phoenix is playing their 3rd game in 4 nights. Give me the OVER 231.5! |
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11-21-22 | Nebraska-Omaha v. Iowa OVER 156.5 | Top | 64-100 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
10* NCAAB - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Nebraska-Omaha/Iowa OVER 156.5 I'll take my chances with the OVER 156.5 in Monday's non-conference matchup between Iowa and Nebraska-Omaha. I just don't think this total is near enough, as I really think we could see this Iowa team push the 100 point mark in this one. The Hawkeyes have been elite on the offensive end to start the year. They are 3rd in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency. They also love to push the tempo, ranking 37th in adjusted tempo and 8th in average possession length. That offense is going to be up against one of the worst defenses in the country. The Mavericks rank 333rd out of 363 DI schools in adjusted defensive efficiency. We saw Kansas put up 89 on them earlier this year and as good as the Jayhawks are, they are just 24th in Adj OE and 29th in possession length. The other big thing difference between Iowa and Kansas is the Hawkeyes aren't nearly as good defensively. There are plenty of easy buckets to be had against this Iowa defense. I also think this is not a game where the Hawkeyes are going to be all that locked in defensively. One, it's hard to play all out on defense when you are scoring at will. Two, it's a bit of a flat spot for their defense coming off that big win over Seton Hall, it being Thanksgiving week and a big game on deck against Clemson looming Friday. Give me the OVER 156.5! |
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11-11-22 | Nuggets v. Celtics OVER 230.5 | Top | 112-131 | Win | 100 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
10* NBA Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Nuggets/Celtics OVER 230.5 I'll take my chances with the OVER 230.5 in Friday's showdown between the Nuggets and Celtics. I don't see these two teams having any problem getting into the 230s. Boston has seen an average combined score of 237.2 points in their 5 home games this year. Denver has seen an average combined score of 235.6 in their 7 road games. These are the two most efficient offenses in the league with Boston ranking first in offensive efficiency and the Nuggets in second. Not only that, but both of these teams rank in the bottom 10 of the league in defensive efficiency. Unless we get some dreadful shooting by both teams, this should easily get past the number, as I think both of these teams will finish in the 120s. Give me the OVER 230.5! |
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10-26-22 | Hornets v. Knicks OVER 224 | Top | 131-134 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
10* NBA Over/Under PLAY OF THE MONTH: Knicks/Hornets OVER 224 I love the OVER 224 in Wednesday's matchup between the Knicks and Hornets. I'm shocked the total here isn't in the 230s. Both these teams are looking to play fast early on. Charlotte comes in ranked 3rd in the NBA in pace at 105.6 and New York is 12th at 101.9. Not only are these to pushing the tempo, they are two of the most efficient offensive teams. Charlotte ranks 3rd in offensive efficiency at 116.7 points per 100 possessions and the Knicks are 89th at 112.8 points per 100 possessions. Each of the Hornets 3 games have seen a combined score of 231 or more points, while the Knicks are seeing an average combined score of 226.7 points thru their first 3 games. Give me the OVER 224! |
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05-25-22 | Celtics v. Heat UNDER 204 | Top | 93-80 | Win | 100 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
Eastern Conf Finals (Game 5) MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 204) I'll take my chances with the UNDER 204 in Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Finals between the Celtics and Heat. I always like to look to the UNDER in a series when it's tied 2-2 going into a Game 5. It's not quite the same as a Game 7, but it has that feel to it, where both teams are pulling out all the stops to go up 3-2 in what is now a best of 3 series. We finally saw a defensive game in Game 4, after each of the first 3 games went OVER the total. The two combined for just 184 points in Game 4. I see no reason not to expect more of the same. Both teams are dealing with big injuries. Boston is likely without Smart and Heat could be playing without both Lowry and Herro. Either way, these two teams know how they want to defend the opposition. Give me the UNDER 204! Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10) |
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05-21-22 | Heat v. Celtics UNDER 207.5 | Top | 109-103 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 52 m | Show |
Eastern Conf Finals (Game 3) MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 207.5) I'll take my chances with the UNDER 207.5 in Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals. It's been a a lot higher scoring series so far. Both Game 1 and Game 2 went OVER the total. They went for 225 with a total of 203.5 in Game 1 and for 229 with a total of 206 in Game 2. Why go UNDER in Game 3? This to me is when the series really start to flip to the defenses having the edge. Both teams are now very familiar with what both teams want to do and the adjustments they make when they try to take something away. Not only that, but I think we see the defense turned up a notch anytime a series is tied. Both teams are going to be extremely motivated to take a 2-1 series lead. We finally get the defensive showdown we thought we would see from the start. Give me the UNDER 207.5! Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10) |
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05-19-22 | Celtics v. Heat UNDER 208 | Top | 127-102 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Finals (Game 2) MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 208) I'll take my chances with the UNDER 208 in Game 2 of the Eastern Conference Finals. A lot of people were on the UNDER in Game 1 and got burned as that went well past the total of 203.5 with the game finishing at 225. We cashed the Heat -1.5 in that one, but had I been forced to play the total I would have leaned to the OVER. I just didn't think Boston would be at their best defensively coming off back-to-back elimination wins with just one day off from their Game 7 win against the Bucks. Not only that, but they were without two of their better defenders in Marcus Smart and Al Horford. Now it's time to look to the UNDER with the books jumping this total up to 208. Boston should be much better defensively in Game 2. While Horford is still out, Smart has been upgraded to probable. Having the DPOY on the floor is a big deal. It's also going to help having seen what Miami wants to do offensively. Plus, it's unlikely the Heat play as well offensively (shot 49% from the field and got 41 points from Jimmy Butler). Give me the UNDER 208! Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10) |
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05-11-22 | Bucks v. Celtics UNDER 214.5 | Top | 110-107 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
NBA Playoffs Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Under 214.5) I will take my chances with the UNDER 214.5 in Game 5 between the Celtics and Bucks. I always lean UNDER in Game 5 when a series is tied 2-2, as it just has that Game 7 feel to it with both teams desperately wanting to get a win to take control of the series. We saw the UNDER cash in this spot in both games last night. The two teams did go OVER the total in Game 4, but note that was the first time this entire postseason that a game involving the Bucks finished OVER the total. UNDER is 8-1. I just think that given what's at stake, it's going to be hard for both teams to get to 100 points and I wouldn't be shocked if neither team did. Give me the UNDER 214.5! Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10) |
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05-07-22 | Celtics v. Bucks UNDER 213 | Top | 101-103 | Win | 100 | 17 h 8 m | Show |
NBA Playoffs Smart Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Under 213) I'll take my chances with the UNDER 213 in Game 3 between the Bucks and Celtics. The UNDER has cashed in each of the first two games of this series and is now a perfect 7-0 in Milwaukee's 7 playoff games. These are two of the best defensive teams in the league. With the series tied at 1-1, you got to think both of these teams are going to be locked in on the defensive side of the ball. Keep in mind we saw both teams shoot close to 47% in Game 2 and yet they still only combined for 195 points. I've said it in each of the first two games. It's going to be a struggle for both teams to hit that 100 point mark. Give me the UNDER 213! Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10) |
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05-02-22 | 76ers v. Heat UNDER 209 | Top | 92-106 | Win | 100 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
NBA Playoffs Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 209) I will gladly take my chances with the UNDER at 209 in Game 1 between the 76ers and Heat. Two big names for both sides will be out of this one. Joel Embiid is out until at least Game 3 and Kyle Lowry will miss the game for Miami. Embiid is an absolute massive blow to the 76ers, especially on the offensive side of the ball. I just don't see the likes of Harden/Maxey/Harris having a lot of success against this Miami defense. There's going to be no easy buckets for Philly. Embiid is also a big part of the 76ers' defense, but they can still be good on that side without him. It also helps them that the Lowry, Miami's floor general, won't be on the floor. I wouldn't be surprised at all if both teams failed to reach 100 points. Give me the UNDER 209! Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10) |
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05-01-22 | Bucks v. Celtics UNDER 218 | Top | 101-89 | Win | 100 | 14 h 6 m | Show |
NBA Playoffs Round 2 VEGAS INSIDER (Under 218) I absolutely love the UNDER at 218 in Game 1 of the Celtics/Bucks series. I think these are two of the best defensive teams in the league. The transformation that Boston has had defensively from the start of the year to now is pretty remarkable. That defense just made KD look like an average player in their sweep of the Nets in the first round. Now they face a Bucks team down one of their top scorers in Middleton. Milwaukee might not be on the Celtics level defensively, but they aren't far behind. The Bucks defense dominated a pretty good Bulls offense in the first round. It will be much harder against Boston, but they are up to the task. Getting to 100 points will be a struggle for both sides. Give me the UNDER 218! Confidence Rating: 9 (Scale of 1-10) |
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04-13-22 | Hornets v. Hawks UNDER 236 | Top | 103-132 | Win | 100 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 236) We saw both play-in games last night go UNDER the total. The Clippers/Wolves only combined for 213 with a total of 231. The Nets/Cavs did come close with 223 and a total of 227, but that was with a 65-point 4th quarter. That's just a prime example of how much better the defense gets in the postseason. That was with neither of those teams being eliminated with a loss. Tonight it's win or go home for these 9/10 matchups. As good as these two offenses are and how both can struggle defensively at times, the total shouldn't be in the high 230s! Give me the UNDER 236! |
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03-30-22 | Mavs v. Cavs OVER 212.5 | Top | 120-112 | Win | 100 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (OVER 212.5) I'll take my chances with the OVER 212.5 in Wednesday's non-conference matchup between the Mavs and Cavs. I think it's going to be tough for Cleveland to stop the Mavs with both Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen. The defense has not been good since Allen went out and now they are really behind the 8-ball on that side of the ball with Mobley out. As for the Mavs, I don't think they are going to have enough in the tank to be anywhere close to their best on the defensive side of the ball. Dallas hosted the Jazz on Sunday and then hosted the Lakers last night. Mavs are also sitting good in the standings, at 4th place in the West, 2 games in front of the Jazz and Nuggets. Easy spot for them to just go through the motions defensively. Give me the OVER 212.5! |
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03-29-22 | Bucks v. 76ers UNDER 232 | Top | 118-116 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 42 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 232) I love the UNDER 232 in Tuesday's Eastern Conference showdown between the Bucks and 76ers. This feels like a game where both of these teams are going to bring it. Both of these teams think they are the team to beat in the East and both are just 1-game back of the Heat for the No. 1 seed. You also got both of these teams not just coming off a loss, but coming off a game where they didn't play well. Milwaukee got steamrolled by 25 at Memphis on Saturday and the 76ers lost by 10 at Phoenix. UNDER is 5-0 in Philly's last 5 as a home favorite and 8-1 in their last 9 at home with a total of 22 or more. UNDER is also 7-3 in the Bucks last 10 off 2 days of rest, 8-3 in their last 11 as a dog and 4-0 in their last 4 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Give me the UNDER 232! |
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03-21-22 | Heat v. 76ers UNDER 215.5 | Top | 106-113 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 215.5) I'll take my chances with the UNDER 215.5 in Monday's big Eastern Conference showdown between the Heat and 76ers. It not going to be playoff intensity, but I expect both teams to really be up for this game. This is Philly's last crack at catching the Heat for the No. 1 seed, as they are 3.5-back with just 11 games left for both teams. Miami still has to hold of the Bucks, but would pretty much secure the No. 2 with a win. I also think there's also a little more incentive for the Heat with this being their first crack at Philly since they added James Harden. I just see this being a defensive game. Both these teams rank in the bottom 10 in pace and are very strong defensively. They have played 3 times this season and the most they have combined for is 207 with 2 games failing to reach 200. Give me the UNDER 215.5! |
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02-10-22 | Clippers v. Mavs OVER 214.5 | Top | 105-112 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (OVER 214.5) I really like the OVER 214.5 in Thursday's game between Los Angeles and Dallas. The Clippers have shown no interest in getting stops of late. LA gave up 137 at home to the Bucks on Sunday and then turned around and gave up 135 at Memphis on Tuesday. They have allowed 5 of their last 6 opponents to shoot 47% or better from the field, with 3 of the last 4 eclipsing 51%. No surprise the OVER 7-1-1 in their last 4 games. I don't see that defense flipping a switch against a good Mavs team, especially with how well Luka Doncic is playing right now. Doncic is averaging 31.0 ppg, 11.8 apg and 9.0 rpg in 4 games this month. Dallas does have a good defense, but LA's not been held under 100 points since scoring 94 against the Spurs way back on Jan. 15. I think as long as the Clippers can get to the century mark, this think will easily go over the number. Give me the OVER 214.5! |
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02-02-22 | Nuggets v. Jazz UNDER 224.5 | Top | 104-108 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 224.5) This is an easy play on the UNDER at 224.5 in Wednesday's game between the Nuggets and Jazz. Utah is dealing with some serious injury problems right now. Already without arguably their two best players in Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert, the Jazz just lost their top reserve, Joe Ingles, to a season-ending injury. They could also be without Hassan Whiteside, who is questionable with a back injury. As for the Nuggets, they don't figure to be looking to push the pace in this one. Denver has to be running on fumes, as they will be playing on no rest after a game last night in Minnesota. It's also their 6th straight on the road and 3rd in the last 4 nights. Give me the UNDER 224.5! |
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01-20-22 | Pacers v. Warriors OVER 215 | Top | 121-117 | Win | 100 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - TNT Total PLAY OF THE MONTH (Over 215) I'll take my chances with the OVER 215 between the Pacers and Warriors in the night cap of Thursday's TNT double-header. I just the market is low right now on this Golden State offense. The Warriors haven't exactly been lighting it up, as they have eclipsed 108 points just once in their 8 games and failed to even reach 100 in 5 of those games. It's not so much execution as it is they just haven't shot well. Golden State has shot worse than 43% from the field in 7 of their last 8. Some of that likely has to do with them playing 6 of their last 8 on the road. They only finished with 102 in their last game at home against Detroit, but they had 66 in the 1st half (scored 17 in the 3rd and 19 in the 4th). A lot of that is the game was over at the at half (GS led 66-38). I think the offense could be in store for a big game here against a injury plagued and tired Pacers team that will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days on no rest after a thrilling 111-104 comeback win against the Lakers. Note that Malcolm Brogdon has been on a minute restriction coming back from an achilles injury, so it's no guarantee he plays on the second of a back-to-back. Big man Domantas Sabonis injured his ankle. He finished the game, but head coach Rick Carlisle said it was "probably going to be significant." I just don't see a lot of defense being played for a Pacers team that hasn't been great on that side of the ball anyway. Give me the OVER 215 |
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01-16-22 | Iowa v. Minnesota OVER 151.5 | Top | 81-71 | Win | 100 | 4 h 28 m | Show |
50* (CBB) Big Ten TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 151.5) I love the OVER 151.5 in Sunday's Big 10 showdown between Minnesota and Iowa. This Hawkeyes team is all offense and no defense. Iowa ranks No. 3 in the country in offensive efficiency and 160th in defensive efficiency. Their only hope of winning games against quality teams is to outscore them. It's why they are 2-3 in Big Ten play, despite averaging 78.8 ppg. They give up 80.0 ppg. So while the Gophers are only scoring 64.8 ppg in Big Ten play, it would take a real bad shooting day for them to not get into the 70s at home against this Iowa defense. The other big thing is, is this Minnesota defense doesn't figure to be able to slow down Iowa's offense. The Gophers are 12th out of 14 teams in the Big Ten in defensive efficiency. I think this total should be closer to 160 than 150. Give me the OVER 151.5! |
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12-15-21 | Wizards v. Kings OVER 225 | Top | 105-119 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 225) I love the OVER 225 in tonight's NBA matchup between the Kings and Wizards. These are two teams that are really struggling to get stops right now and I don't see that changing tonight. Washington has allowed 113 or more in each of their last 4 games and teams are shooting 48.6% from the field against them over their last 5. It's not any better for Sacramento, who has allowed 117 or more in 4 straight and 115 or more in 9 of their last 10. They have allowed their opponent to shoot 50% or better in 3 of their last 4 and 47 or better in 9 of their last 10. Give me the OVER 225! |
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11-16-21 | Warriors v. Nets OVER 221.5 | Top | 117-99 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (OVER 221.5) I love the OVER 221.5 in tonight's big NBA game between the Nets and Warriors. I know the UNDERS have been cashing left and right to start the 2021-22 season, but I actually think it's playing into our favor with this number. These are two exceptional offensive teams. The Nets had their struggles early on offense, but that has changed here of late and a big reason for that is James Harden is finally starting to play up to his potential. As for the Warriors, they have been a force offensively, averaging 115.1 ppg. I think both teams could get into the 120's, but we really just need something like a 115-110 final to cash this easy. Give me the OVER 221.5! |
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07-20-21 | Suns v. Bucks UNDER 222.5 | Top | 98-105 | Win | 100 | 22 h 20 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Suns/Bucks Game 6 MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 222.5) As much as I wanted to go take the points with Phoenix here, the Suns have burnt me the last two games of this series. I also think the much stronger play in this one is the OVER. While these two teams combined for 242 in Game 5, Milwaukee had one of the greatest team shooting games in NBA Finals history. They couldn't miss in the 2nd and 3rd quarter. Phoenix was also on fire, as they shot 55.2% from the field. Look for the shooting to cool off in the first elimination game of the series. Phoenix must win to force a Game 7, so we know they are going to give everything they got defensively. While Milwaukee is up, this game is huge for them too. They don't want this to go to a Game 7. Give me the UNDER 222.5! |
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06-25-21 | Hawks v. Bucks UNDER 226 | Top | 91-125 | Win | 100 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
50* (NBA) Hawks/Bucks MAX UNIT Top Play (Under 226) I think we are getting a really great price on the UNDER (226) in Game 2 of the Eastern Conference Finals. While Game 1 went over the total of 223.5 in the Hawks 116-113 win, it didn't get their by much. That was with some really big offensive performances by both teams. Trae Young had a game-high 48. He's getting all the praise and rightfully so, but John Collins had a monster game with 23 points and 15 boards. For the Bucks, they got 34 from Antetokoumpo and 33 from Holiday. We know we are going to get the best Milwaukee has to offer on the defensive side to avoid going down 0-2 before Game 3 in Atlanta. You also got to think that both teams will make some adjustments to slow the other team down. Give me the UNDER 226! |
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06-07-21 | Nuggets v. Suns UNDER 220.5 | Top | 105-122 | Loss | -101 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Monday MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 220.5) I'm going to take my chances with the UNDER 220.5 in Game 1 between the Nuggets/Suns. These two teams played 3 times in the regular-season. Suns won 106-103 in the first meeting, Denver won 130-126 in overtime and 120-112 in double-overtime the next two. So while it looks like 2 of the 3 were high scoring, the game that ended with 156 had 28 points scored after regulation (tied 114-114) and in the game that had 132 there were 36 scored in extra time (tied 98-98). Denver has also lost two starters since the last time they played in Jamal Murray and Will Barton. I think there's value with this total due to the Nuggets coming off a high-scoring series against the Blazers. Phoenix and Portland are actually tied (4th) in offensive efficiency at 114.9. The big difference is defense. Suns are 9th in defensive efficiency at 108.8 and the Blazers are 29th at 113.4. Phoenix is also tied with Denver in pace at 26th, where Portland was tied for 16th in pace. Give me the UNDER 220.5! |
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06-03-21 | Suns v. Lakers UNDER 207.5 | Top | 113-100 | Loss | -106 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Suns/Lakers MAX UNIT Top Play (Under 207.5) I like the UNDER 207.5 in Game 6 tonight between the Lakers and Suns. I'm torn on whether or not LA can win this game, but I am pretty confident that it will be low scoring. I think the Lakers are not only desperate facing elimination, but also embarrassed from that ugly loss in Game 5. The level of intensity they are going to have at home with their backs against the wall is going to be really high. At the same time, I don't think the Suns are feeling good about things. Sure they like that AD is hurt, but this thing can flip in a hurry if he comes back. Chris Paul knows to not like his team take this game lightly, just because they got a Game 7 at home if needed. I expect Phoenix to be just as motivated here to finish this thing off. I just don't think there's going to be enough pace and shot making to get this to the 210 range. Give me the UNDER 207.5! |
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05-21-21 | Grizzlies v. Warriors UNDER 221 | Top | 117-112 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 60 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Grizzlies/Warriors MAX UNIT Top Play (Under 221) I will gladly take my chances with the UNDER 221 in Friday's Play-In matchup for the No. 8 seed between the Warriors and Grizzlies. While we just watched the Wizards/Pacers fly past the total last night, the UNDER has hit in 3 of the 5 play-in games with the only two OVERs coming in games that involved the Pacers. The Grizzlies/Spurs matchup on Wednesday went UNDER the total of 225 by 29 points, as the Grizzlies won that game by a final of 100-96. The Warriors/Lakers game stayed UNDER the total of 217 by 14 as LA won 103-100. Both of these teams were exceptional on the defensive end, as Memphis held the Spurs to just 35% shooting, while Golden State held the Lakers to 40.7% from the field. If you go back it's nothing new. Grizzlies have held 6 of their last 7 opponents to 44% or worse, while the Warriors have held 7 of their last 10 under that mark. These two played late in the regular-season and only combined for 214 points and that was with GW shooting 49%. Give me the UNDER 221! |
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05-04-21 | Mavs v. Heat UNDER 215.5 | Top | 127-113 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Tuesday *MAX UNIT* Top Play (Under 215.5) I really like the UNDER 215.5 in tonight's NBA matchup between the Heat and Mavs. These two teams are in similar spots down the stretch, as both are fighting to avoid the play-in tournament. Right now both are safe, but not by much. Mavs sit 6th, just 0.5-games ahead of 7th place Portland. Miami is 6th in the east, but are just 1-game up on 7th place Boston. Every win is huge for these two teams and I think with both teams having Monday off, we are going to get a big defensive effort. Both teams also figure to be without two of their top offensive playmakers, as the Mavs aren't expected to have Kristaps Porzingis and the Heat are going to be without Tyler Herro. Note Miami is also still without Oladipo and may not have the services of Iguodala. Give me the UNDER 215.5! |
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04-30-21 | Jazz v. Suns UNDER 219 | Top | 100-121 | Loss | -112 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Friday *MAX UNIT* Top Play (Under 219) I absolutely love the UNDER 219 in Friday's huge Western Conference showdown between the Suns and Jazz. The winner of this game will be in the drivers seat for the No. 1 seed in the west, as Utah comes into this matchup just 1-game up on the Suns with both teams having just 9 left on the schedule after this contest. Phoenix has the tiebreaker, so if the two finished tied they get the top spot. I think the defensive intensity is going to be very high on both sides. You also got Utah playing this game without Donovan Mitchell or Mike Conley. So while these two did combine for 230 in their last meeting, that was with Mitchell carrying the Jazz with 41 points. Conley was also in double-figures with 11. Give me the UNDER 219! |
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04-20-21 | Wolves v. Kings OVER 237.5 | Top | 134-120 | Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Western Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 237.5) I love the OVER 237.5 in Tuesday's game between the Timberwolves and Kings. I just don't see any defense being played between these two Western Conference bottom feeders. Neither plays much defense as it is. Both certainly haven't been playing much of late, as Minnesota is giving up 121.8 ppg on 50% shooting in their last 5, while Sacramento has allowed 119.4 ppg on 51% shooting in their last 5. Key here is that both of these teams can score. I don't think it will take much for both of these teams to reach 120 points. Also, I think the fact that these two are scheduled to turn around and play each other again in Sacramento tomorrow night, gives that much more incentive to not try defensively in this first meeting. Give me the OVER 237.5! |
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04-07-21 | Pelicans v. Nets OVER 231 | Top | 111-139 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Wednesday *MAX UNIT* Top Play (Over 231) I love the OVER 231 in tonight's game between the Pelicans and Nets. While Brooklyn won't have the services of James Harden for a while, they are expected to get back Kevin Durant. The duo of Durant and Irving with all the role players they got is more than enough. I look for the Nets to have a field day offensively against an awful Pelicans defense that is giving up 117.6 ppg over their last 5. They didn't even try to defend the 3-point line in last night's 107-123 loss to the Hawks, as Atlanta went 20 of 31 (64.5%) from deep. They give those Nets the same looks and Brooklyn could easily score 140+ The key here is I think the Nets aren't going to be all that locked in defensively. They got a lot of new pieces and it's going to take some time before they are a cohesive defensive unit. New Orleans is also a very strong offensive team. Give me the OVER 231! |
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04-06-21 | Pelicans v. Hawks OVER 225.5 | Top | 107-123 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 225.5) I love the OVER 225.5 in tonight's NBA matchup between the Pelicans and Hawks. I think we are getting a discount on the total due to the fact that New Orleans could be playing again without Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram. Both are listed as questionable, but there's been no indication that they will play. If they do that's great, but I don't think they need them to eclipse this number. In the Pelicans last 4 games they have combined for 124 with the Celtics, 125 with the Magic, 129 with these same Hawks and 137 in their last game with the Rockets. Going back even further, NO has seen a combined score of at least 120 in 7 of their last 8. Add that with how the Hawks have been playing and this is a no-brainer. In Atlanta's last 5 games they are scoring 117.8 ppg on 49% shooting and giving up 117.2 ppg on 48% shooting. Give me the OVER 225.5! |
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04-02-21 | Hawks v. Pelicans UNDER 224 | Top | 126-103 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
50* (NBA) - Friday *MAX UNIT* Top Play (UNDER 224) I absolutely love the UNDER 224 in Friday's game between the Pelicans and Hawks. I just don't see these two coming anywhere close to this total given the circumstances. For Atlanta, they will be in the 2nd game of a back-to-back after a grueling 134-129 OT win at San Antonio last night. A game in which 4 different Hawks' players logged 35 or more minutes. On top of that, this is Atlanta's 8th and final game of a brutal 8-game road trip. As for the Pelicans, they might be extremely short-handed here, as Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram and Lonza Ball are all questionable. Given that the line for this game is right around a pick'em that tells me there's a good chance at least two of these guys aren't suiting up and maybe all 3. Give me the UNDER 224! |
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03-28-21 | Florida State v. Michigan UNDER 143 | Top | 58-76 | Win | 100 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
50* (CBB) - NCAA Tournament 'Sweet 16' MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 143) I love the UNDER 143 in Sunday's Sweet 16 clash between Florida State and Michigan. I know the Wolverines put up 82 in their first game against Texas Southern and 86 in the Round of 32 against LSU, but that was to be expected. Texas Southern ranked 211th in defensive efficiency and LSU ranked 124th. It won't be nearly that easy against Florida State. The Seminoles ranked 31st in defensive efficiency and were one of the toughest teams in the country to score inside on (No. 10 in 2P % defense). Just look what they did to Colorado in the Round of 32. The Buffaloes scored 96 points against Georgetown in the 1st round and then were only able to manage 53 against FSU. Factor in Michigan is also an elite defensive team and one that likes to play the game in the halfcourt, I don't see these two teams reaching 140. Give me the UNDER 143! |
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03-13-21 | Blazers v. Wolves OVER 233.5 | Top | 125-121 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
50* BLAZERS/WOLVES NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Over 233.5) I really considered take the Timberwolves as a home dog here, but I think the real value in this game is the OVER 233.5. Minnesota looked like a different team out of the break, as they went on the road and crushed the Pelicans 135-105. Timberwolves shot 53.7% from the field in that game and while some of that was New Orleans subpar defense, it's not like the Blazers are a good defensive team. Portland just allowed the Suns to shoot 59% from the field in a crushing 121-127 loss at home on Thursday. I think there's a good chance that Minnesota carries over that strong offensive showing and I definitely don't trust this Timberwolves defense to slow down a potent Blazers offense. This is one of those games where it feels like both teams could easily get into the 120s and it wouldn't shock me if it got way up there with both in the 230s. Give me the OVER 233.5! |
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02-25-21 | Magic v. Nets OVER 228 | Top | 92-129 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
50* MAGIC/NETS NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Over 228) If you have been following my NBA picks this year, you knew that the OVER in tonight's Brooklyn/Orland game was going to be on the board. I just don't know the books can make the numbers high enough for these Nets games. I definitely will be a little more cautious with the OVER going forward when Brooklyn plays a top tier team, as we did just see the UNDER cash in their two games with the Lakers and Clippers, but no way am I not taking the OVER when they are playing a sub-par team like Orlando. The Nets are so good offensively, even without Durant, that they know they don't have to play all that hard on the defensive end to win games. I definitely don't see them being interested in giving that extra effort against the Magic and it's not like we need 240 in this one, we just need to get to 230. These two combined for 137 in a recent meeting on Jan. 16 and that was with them only reaching 102 at the half. Give me the OVER 228! |
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02-22-21 | Hornets v. Jazz OVER 229 | Top | 110-132 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
50* HORNETS/JAZZ NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Over 229) I love the OVER 229 in today's game between the Jazz and Hornets. These two teams played earlier this month (Feb. 5) and combined for a ridiculous 259 points as the Jazz won 138-121 on the road. Now I'm not expecting them to approach to 260 again, but I don't think getting to 230 is asking a lot. I wouldn't be shocked at all if Utah score 130 on their own in this one. The big key here being how good a 3-point shooting team Utah is and how bad the Hornets are at defending it. Jazz are shooting 39% and averaging 16 made 3-pointers on the season. Charlotte is allowing opponents to shoot 40% from deep with an average of 16 made 3-pointers on the road. The other thing here is because the Jazz figure to have such an easy time scoring, are fresh off two grueling games against the Clippers and have a big home game on deck against LeBron and the Lakers, I don't see them really investing a lot of energy on defense in this one. Give me the OVER 229! |
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02-19-21 | Bulls v. 76ers OVER 230.5 | Top | 105-112 | Loss | -113 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
50* BULLS/76ERS NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Over 230.5) I really like the OVER 230.5 in tonight's game between the Bulls and 76ers. The OVER had cashed in 3 straight games for Chicago before Wednesday's low-scoring game with Detroit, where both teams had an awful quarter that kept it UNDER. With the way Chicago can score and their limitations on defense, this is team that should be in a lot of high-scoring games. I definitely think that's the case here. The 76ers are really clicking on offense. Philadelphia has scored at least 111 points in 6 straight and 9 of 10 overall. They also have allowed 110 or more in 8 of their last 9. With the uptempo style the Bulls like to play and their lack of defense, I could see this flying past the number here. Give me the OVER 230.5! |
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02-17-21 | Pistons v. Bulls OVER 220 | Top | 102-105 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
50* PISTONS/BULLS NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Over 220) I love the value here with the OVER 220 in Wednesday's game between the Bulls and Pistons. This is a late addition to the slate, as the league threw this game together last minute after both teams had their original schedule opponents unavailable to play. I believe it's going to lead to a more high-scoring game than what me night normally see between these two division rivals. Detroit went from suppose to playing the Spurs at home last night and the Mavs in Dallas tonight to traveling to Chicago. I just don't see them being locked in, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Chicago is scoring 114.8 ppg over their last 5 games and really matchup well here. Bulls are a great 3-point shooting team, hitting 38.3% as a team and will be facing a Detroit defense that is allowing opponents to shoot 39% from deep. As for the Bulls defense, it's one of the worst in the league. Chicago is giving up 116.0 ppg on 48% shooting. Pistons aren't known for their offense and are only averaging 108.9 ppg on the season, but are averaging 115.4 ppg in their last 5. A stretch that has seen them eclipse 120 on 3 different occasions. If either team hits 120 (both are more than capable) this should fly past the mark. Give me the OVER 220! |
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02-16-21 | Missouri v. Georgia OVER 153.5 | Top | 70-80 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 0 m | Show |
50* MISSOURI/GEORGIA NCAAB *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Over 153.5) I love the OVER 153.5 in Tuesday's SEC showdown between Georgia and Missouri. The Bulldogs are exactly the kind of team you want to take an OVER with. Georgia is potent offensively and like to play at a face pace. The Bulldogs rank 5th in the SEC in tempo and are scoring 76.4 ppg in SEC play (79.6 ppg last 5 games). They also play little to no defense, giving up 84.8 ppg in conference play this season. Missouri like to play at a little slower tempo, but given how easy it figures to be on the offensive end for them, I look for them to speed it up a little tonight. In the Tigers last 12 games they have faced two teams who rank outside the Top 90 at KenPom in defensive efficiency. In those games they scored 88 against Auburn (No. 93) and 102 against TCU (No. 148). Georgia ranks 140th. It's also worth noting that Missouri will be without big man Jeremiah Tilmon, who is their best defensive presence inside. He missed their last game against Arkansas and the Tigers gave up 86 in a game that saw a combined score of 167. Give me the OVER 153.5! |
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02-15-21 | Rockets v. Wizards UNDER 228.5 | Top | 119-131 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
50* WIZARDS/ROCKETS NON-CONF TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 228.5) I love the value here with the UNDER 228.5 in Monday's NBA matchup between the Rockets and Wizards. A lot of people just see the fact that Washington is giving up 119.1 ppg and just immediately look to play the OVER. Thing is the Wizards have had a bit of bad luck on the defensive end this year. They advanced stats suggest they should be allowing a lot less than they have been and those stats are starting to show as the UNDER has hit in 6 of the last 7 games for the Wizards. Not only is it their defense, but it's also their struggles offensively, as Washington has shot 42% or worse from the field in 6 of 7. Houston is in a major offensive funk right now as well, as they are really missing Christian Wood and will also be without Oladipo. Rockets have shot 43% or worse in 5 straight and are scoring just 98.8 ppg during this stretch. Give me the UNDER 228.5! |
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02-14-21 | Spurs v. Hornets OVER 228.5 | Top | 122-110 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
50* SPURS/HORNETS NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Over 228.5) I love the OVER 228.5 in Sunday's matchup between San Antonio and Charlotte. I see these two teams easily getting to 230 points. That's basically been every game here of late for the Hornets. In Charlotte's last 5 games they are scoring 118.6 ppg and giving up 114.6 ppg. Spurs aren't exactly viewed as a great offensive team, but they are quietly averaging 110.7 ppg and that jumps up to 113.2 ppg on the road. In their last road game at Atlanta on Friday they scored 125 points on 53% shooting and were better than that as they had 110 points thru 3 quarters before throwing in the scrubs in the 4th. Spurs are also not a great defensive team. They are giving up 111.5 ppg on 47% shooting from the field and 39% from behind the 3-point line on the season. That poor 3-point defense figures to be a major problem against the Hornets. Charlotte is averaging 14 made 3's and shooting 38% from deep on the season. Give me the OVER 228.5! |
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