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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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08-26-23 | Ravens +1.5 v. Bucs | 20-26 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 27 m | Show | |
John Harbaugh cares about winning preseason games. Todd Bowles doesn't. I see Harbaugh wanting to win this matchup after Baltimore's record 24-game preseason win streak was halted by the Commanders, 29-28, on a last-minute 49-yard field goal. Bowles is 8-13 as a head coach in preseason, including 1-4 with the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay is averaging just 15 points in two preseason games. The Buccaneers have decided on Baker Mayfield to be their starting QB. So there's no more QB competition and nothing for the Bucs to show and tip their hand especially with a vulnerable offensive line against an aggressive Ravens pass rush. The Ravens have a pair of veteran backup QB's in Tyler Huntley and Josh Johnson, who was 10-of-12 for 145 yards and two TD passes against Washington last week compiling a 121.9 quarterback rating. |
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08-25-23 | Chargers v. 49ers -7.5 | Top | 23-12 | Loss | -108 | 21 h 33 m | Show |
Certain coaches don't care about preseason. The Chargers' Brandon Staley is one such fellow. The Chargers' only victory during their last seven preseason games came against the Rams, whose coach, Sean McVay, cares even less about preseason than Staley. This is a lot of points to lay in an exhibition game. But it's justified. The 49ers are expected to play starters. They also have much better depth than the Chargers and a far stronger quarterback rotation with Brock Purdy, Sam Darnold and Trey Lance. The Chargers can't risk an injury to Justin Herbert, or any of their other stars, because they are so thin with a major talent dropoff from starters to reserves. That means LA will be going with a quarterback rotation of Easton Stick and seventh-round rookie draft choice Max Dugan. The 49ers are home and have fierce competition in their secondary that needs to be sorted out. They'll also want to showcase Lance so they'll be doing all they can to make him and their offense look good. |
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08-24-23 | Steelers -4.5 v. Falcons | Top | 24-0 | Win | 100 | 32 h 17 m | Show |
It's well noted that Mike Tomlin has never had a losing season in 16 years as Steelers head coach. It's not so well known that Tomlin also has a great record in preseason. Pittsburgh is 17-4 SU, 15-5-1 ATS in its last 21 preseason games. The Steelers have looked impressive again this preseason. They are 2-0, scoring 27 points in each of their victories against the Buccaneers and Bills while holding those two foes to an average of 16 points. Pittsburgh has unleashed an aggressive passing attack that has worked well. Kenny Pickett has led the Steelers to three touchdown drives of longer than 25 yards. The Steelers have a much better QB rotation than Atlanta and are the deeper team across the board. Pittsburgh backup QB Mitch Trubisky is arguably better than Atlanta starting QB Desmond Ridder. He certainly has more experience mobility. Mason Rudolph is a plus as far as third-string QB's go when it comes to preseason. The Falcons had 13 penalties for 102 yards during their 13-13 lackluster home tie with the Bengals last week. Falcons coach Arthur Smith wouldn't commit to playing any of his starters against the Steelers after using his starters against Cincinnati. |
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08-20-23 | Saints -3.5 v. Chargers | Top | 22-17 | Win | 100 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
In the wacky world of preseason football what counts heavily are the quality of backup quarterbacks and how serious the head coach is about wanting to win the game. We have clear indications in this matchup - and they point to a Saints victory and likely cover. New Orleans coach Dennis Allen isn't afraid to go with his regulars. Both Derek Carr and second-string Jameis Winston played opening week for the Saints. The Saints beat the Chiefs, 26-24, with Carr and Winston each leading a TD drive. Carr and Winston, who could be the best backup QB in the NFL, are expected to play again today. Allen wants to build momentum after New Orleans went a dismal 7-10 in his first year as its head coach last season. Look for Alvin Kamara to get touches, too. Kamara is suspended for the first three games. So Allen needs to get him reps. Chargers coach Brandon Staley has an opposite approach about preseason - and for good reason. The Chargers have great starting talent, but are thin depth-wise. They can't afford injuries, which they were hit with last season. So Staley is likely to use his second and third-stringers throughout the game. That includes undistinguished reserve QB's Easton Stick and Max Duggan. Staley's preseason record is 2-5. The Chargers went 0-3 SU and ATS in preseason last year, losing by an average of 12.6 points. If there's one coach who cares even less about winning during preseason than Staley it's Sean McVay and the Rams. The Chargers happened to play the Rams last week in their opener and won, 34-17. But the oddsmakers know the real story. That's why they made the Saints more than a field goal road favorite here. |
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08-18-23 | Panthers v. Giants -3 | Top | 19-21 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
Prize rookie QB Bryce Young is going to play just like he did during Week 1 of the preseason last week. That's a good thing for the Giants. Young and the youthful Panthers in their first year under Frank Reich looked terrible in a 27-0 loss to the Jets this past Saturday. I don't expect the Panthers, traveling on a short week with a makeshift offensive line, to fare much better this week. Not only are the Giants home, but have had an extra day having played last Friday. They are off a 21-16 road loss to the Lions. New York led 13-3 at halftime. The Lions pulled the game out by scoring a TD with less than two minutes left. The Giants had built a 13-3 halftime lead. However, that lead was cut to 13-11 when the Giants surrendered a 95-yard punt return TD. Young played three series for the Panthers last week. Carolina produced a meager 16 yards during that time. Second-year Carolina QB Matt Corral, who missed his rookie season after suffering a Lisfranc injury last August, is equally inexperienced. He, too, didn't play well against the Jets getting sacked four times and throwing an interception. Carolina's QB game plan is expected to be the same - play Young for a few series and then go with Corral for the rest of the game. They are behind a very much work in progress Carolina offensive line. I not only like the Giants' defense - which allowed only one TD drive to the Lions last week - better than Carolina's offense, but also New York's QB rotation of veteran Tyrod Taylor and Tommy DeVito. The Giants have a lot of competition and unsettled spots at wide receiver, so they should be on the attack. The Panthers' reserve defenders gave up 14 points to the Jets' third-string offense in the fourth quarter. |
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08-12-23 | Colts v. Bills +3.5 | 19-23 | Win | 100 | 3 h 55 m | Show | |
Bet against Sean McDermott and his Bills during preseason at your own peril. The Bills are 9-1 in their last 10 preseason games. Yet the Colts are road favorites. That's way too much respect just because the Colts have announced that rookie QB Anthony Richardson will start. Josh Allen is not likely to play. But I like Buffalo's backup QB's - Kyle Allen and Matt Barkley - more than Richardson. Allen and Barkley are veterans who can produce against reserve defenders in a vanilla scheme.   |
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08-11-23 | Broncos v. Cardinals +6 | 17-18 | Win | 100 | 5 h 57 m | Show | |
This is the largest point spread on the NFL Week 1 preseason card. I don't think it's justified. Yes, Russell Wilson is going to start. But so is Colt McCoy, who will be the Cardinals' starting QB this season with Kyler Murray out. I don't like McCoy, but he's fine during preseason being a veteran and going against reserve defenders. Wilson is off his worst season ever. Now he's making another transition with Sean Payton taking over. The Broncos' offense is going to be a work-in-progress especially this being their first game of preseason. McCoy's backup QB's are dual threat rookie Clayton Tune, who has looked good in camp, and veterans Jeff Driskell and David Blough. The Broncos have backup QB's Jarrett Stidham and Ben DiNucci. Stidham is one of the better second-string QB's, but DiNucci has failed to distinguish himself while being a third-to-fourth string QB for the Cowboys the previous three years. New Cardinals coach Jonathan Gannon would like to make a good early impression on the home crowd while building momentum. So he wants a victory here. |
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08-11-23 | Commanders v. Browns -3 | 17-15 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 20 m | Show | |
Not only do the Browns have home field. But they have the advantage of already having played a game, beating the Jets in the Hall of Fame game last week. Cleveland also holds a QB edge. DeShaun Watson is expected to start and play several series. Watson will be looking to atone for his disappointing first season with the Browns last year. Rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson also should get snaps for the Browns. He was instrumental in the Browns upsetting the Jets last week with his dual threat passing and 36 yards rushing on six carries. Sam Howell is expected to start for Washington. Perhaps veteran backup Jacoby Brissett might play, too, for Washington. However, the Commanders have a horrible third-string QB in Jake Fromm. The Commanders have had plenty of distractions during training camp with new ownership and players complaining about the toughness of new offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy. They aren't going to be as ready to play as the Browns. |
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08-11-23 | Packers v. Bengals +4 | 36-19 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 25 m | Show | |
These non-conference opponents actually have some familiarity with each other. They had joint practices and scrimmages this week. It was the Bengals defense that dominated the action. Yet the Packers are solid road favorites here because Jordan Love may get a series or two while Joe Burrow and the Bengals starters won't play. So what. That doesn't justify this line. It's the Bengals who have the stronger backup quarterback situation. NFL veteran Trevor Siemian and Jake Browning will be under center for Cincinnati. Green Bay's backup QB's are fifth-round rookie Sean Clifford and Alex McGough of the USFL, who was waived five times by NFL teams. Siemian may get extensive playing time with the chance Burrow isn't ready to start the season. It's not like Matt LaFleur places any special emphasis on winning preseason games. Green Bay is 1-5 the past two years in preseason. |
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08-19-22 | Saints v. Packers -3 | Top | 10-20 | Win | 100 | 20 h 20 m | Show |
The teams have been conducting joint practices and the Packers' defense has been getting the better of things, according to multiple reports. Jordan Love has much to prove in this game. So does the Packers wide receiving corps. Saints coach Dennis Allen has never won a preseason road game as a head coach going 0-7, including 1-6 ATS. New Orleans doesn't put a premium on preseason games. The Saints are 7-14 SU, 6-15 ATS in preseason since 2015. The Saints aren't putting emphasis on this game either. The Saints aren't going to play many starters here. The few they do won't play long, perhaps a series or two. Jameis Winston is nursing a slight foot injury. He won't play. New Orleans' backup QB's are Andy Dalton and Ian Book, a stiff who figures to draw most of the minutes. The Saints' third and fourth-stringers didn't look good in a 17-13 loss to the Texans last week. The Packers are likely to leave some of their starters and second-stringers in longer than the Saints. Green Bay is home and cares more about winning this game than New Orleans does.  |
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08-14-22 | Vikings v. Raiders -4 | 20-26 | Win | 100 | 18 h 48 m | Show | |
When it comes to preseason, laying more than a field goal is a lot. But it's justified in this case backing the host Raiders.  Las Vegas has the huge edge of having played a game, having looked good in beating the Jaguars, 27-11, in last week's Hall of Fame Game.  The Vikings won't have Kirk Cousins. Their two other QB's are Sean Mannion and Kellen Mond. This is one of the weakest backup QB rotations in the league. These two are so bad that the Vikings may be forced to acquire a better second-string quarterback.  The Raiders are deep at running back and receiver. They hold a backup QB edge, too, with Jarrett Stidham and Nick Mullens. These two were decent against the Jaguars. Decent quarterback play will get the job done for the Raiders, who won't be nearly as rusty as Minnesota.Â
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08-12-22 | Browns v. Jaguars +1.5 | Top | 24-13 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 38 m | Show |
The announcement that Deshaun Watson is going to start has caused a switch of favorites in this game. Cleveland is now road chalk. The marketplace has this wrong. The Jaguars should win this game. The Jaguars laid an egg against the Raiders in the Hall of Fame game. But now the Jaguars have played a game and are home here. Those are key situational edges. Watson hasn't played since January of 2021. He's learning a new offense and isn't likely to play very long. The Browns are run-oriented. However, their two best running backs - Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt - are not expected to play. Jacksonville coach Doug Pederson has more of a sense of urgency than Browns coach Kevin Stefanski. The Jaguars fell behind the Raiders, 20-0, at halftime. Keep in mind, the Jaguars didn't play their top two QB's, Trevor Lawrence and C.J. Beathard, against Las Vegas. Peterson is going to play a lot of starters here. Lawrence, Travis Etienne and the rest of Jacksonville's first-string offense will get at least a couple of series. Lawrence has looked good in training camp. So has Etienne. The Jaguars upgraded their wide receiving corps. Lawrence needs game time work with them. This is that opportunity. There will be many defensive starters playing, too, for Jacksonville. The Jaguars outscored the Raiders, 11-7, in the second half. Jacksonville had five sacks against Las Vegas. I would rather have Beathard than either of the Browns' third and fourth-string QB's, Josh Dobbs and Josh Rosen. Those two figure to see the bulk of action for Cleveland. |
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08-28-21 | Bears -3 v. Titans | 27-24 | Push | 0 | 9 h 53 m | Show | |
The Titans are going to be sitting out their top starters. The Bears won't play Andy Dalton.  So it comes down to a battle of reserve QB's and the Bears should hold a winning hand with exciting rookie Justin Fields and veteran Nick Foles against journeyman Matt Barkley and Logan Woodside.  The Bears' offensive line is showing signs of jelling. It was a big question mark entering the season. Bears coach Matt Nagy is likely to play his starting offensive line for at least one half. The Titans' defensive line, thin to begin the season, already is dealing with numerous injuries. So I expect the Bears to control the line of scrimmage.  The Titans are dealing with a COVID-19 outbreak that has affected nine players and several coaches, including head coach Mike Vrabel, who won't be at the game since he tested positive this past Sunday. Starting QB Ryan Tannehill also is dealing with COVID.  Chicago should be the more motivated team having been embarrassed by the Bills, 41-15, last week. |
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08-27-21 | Eagles +4.5 v. Jets | 31-31 | Win | 100 | 52 h 48 m | Show | |
Reserves are going to play a lot in this final preseason tune up. So the Jets have no business laying this big of a price.  These teams are familiar with each other since they've had joint practices. The Eagles have been superior inside the trenches.  Zach Wilson looked good in leading the Jets past the Packers last week. But Green Bay held out all of its top defensive players, going with third and fourth-stringers.  I prefer the Eagles' backup QB rotation of Joe Flacco and Nick Mullens versus the Jets' third-stringer James Morgan and fourth-stringer Josh Johnson as New York second-string QB Mike White suffered a rib injury against the Packers this past Saturday and is unlikely to play.Â
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08-23-21 | Jaguars v. Saints -4 | Top | 21-23 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 23 m | Show |
The Saints had a shot to end the Ravens' preseason win streak, which has reached an NFL record-tying 19 consecutive victories, but fell, 17-14, last week. The Sains turned the ball over six times yet still only lost by three points to Baltimore. Saints coach Sean Payton was not happy with the loss, nor his team's performance. The Saints are one of those few teams who still haven't decided on a starting QB. That means big minutes for Jameis Winston and Taysom Hill as they battle it out. They'll be operating against a weak Jacksonville defense that surrendered nearly 250 yards against the Browns backups during the first half last week.  The Jaguars defense proved vulnerable to screen passes. The Saints are a strong screen pass team.  Cleveland backups also handled Jacksonville's offensive line recording four sacks. The Jaguars gave up 44 sacks last season and will be without two and possibly three starting offensive linemen against the Saints. Center Brandon Linder and left guard Andrew Norwell are out and right guard A.J. Cann is questionable due to a positive COVID-19 test.  The Saints can generate a strong pass rush playing on turf at home in an extremely loud indoor setting against a banged-up offensive line. So Urban Meyer would be wise to limit Trevor Lawrence's playing time.Â
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08-22-21 | Giants +5 v. Browns | Top | 13-17 | Win | 100 | 31 h 31 m | Show |
The Browns don't care about this game. Cleveland coach Kevin Stefanski will be playing very few of his starters and the ones who get into the game will see little action.  The Giants don't have that luxury. While Saquon Barkley and Kenney Golladay aren't going to play, Giants QB's will have a number of other weapons plus playing time from their starting offensive line. The Browns' best defensive backs are not healthy and won't be playing.  The edge is going to be with the Giants as far as number of starters playing. That's a big edge especially when Stefanski's top priority isn't winning the game.  The teams have conducted scrimmages and practices against each other the past four days. During this time, Giants wide receiver Sterling Shephard has been a star against Cleveland's decimated secondary.  The person who could take this game the most personally is Giants safety Jabrill Peppers, who played for the Browns before coming to New York. He was extremely animated during the scrimmages. |
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08-14-21 | Texans v. Packers -3 | Top | 26-7 | Loss | -108 | 61 h 42 m | Show |
Much is being made of how untested Jordan Love is. But compared to Houston rookie QB Davis Mills, Love is Aaron Rodgers.  Love and Mills figure to be the key storylines in the Texans-Packers Week 1 preseason game. Both figure to play a lot in this game.  Aaron Rodgers isn't playing. Deshaun Watson may not even make the trip to Green Bay. He's certainly not playing. Watson has been nothing but a huge distraction during the Texans' training camp with trade rumors swirling around him and lawsuits from 22 women.  Tyrod Taylor is Houston's starting QB. The Texans know what he can do. So does every other team in the NFL. They all know Taylor is a journeyman, who has gotten more conservative with each season. The Chargers are still counting their blessing for the inept team doctor who accidentally punctured Taylor's lung allowing Justin Herbert to become their starting quarterback last year.  Taylor hasn't looked good during training camp. Mills has looked downright terrible. Mills has had trouble picking up the speed of the NFL game. He threw four interceptions during one red zone-focused practice last week.  Not helping Mills is the Texans' lack of talent and overhauled roster with some 50 new players. Houston is breaking in four new starting offensive linemen. Green Bay's defense should be way ahead of Houston's offense.  It remains to be seen if Love will be a playmaker, or a checkdown, game-manager type. But the Packers do have a deep set of receivers and the Texans have a weak defense especially in the secondary.  Kurt Benkert is Green Bay's third-string QB and figures to see action, too. Benkert has three NFL seasons of experience. He's shown enough for the Packers to cut Blake Bortles, who would not have been a bad third-string quarterback.  Even though this is a preseason game where randomness is increased, there's still no need to overthink this. The Packers are the deeper and superior team to the visiting Texans. I would take Love - sight unseen - against any of the Texans QB's except Watson.    |
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08-12-21 | Steelers +1.5 v. Eagles | 24-16 | Win | 100 | 53 h 4 m | Show | |
Coaching history and backup quarterbacks are two keys in accessing preseason football. We know Mike Tomlin likes to win these exhibition games. The Steelers have won 63 percent of their preseason games under Tomlin, including defeating the Cowboys, 16-3, in the Hall of Fame Game last Thursday.  Having already played a game is a plus, too, for the Steelers here. Pittsburgh won't be so vanilla with its offense as it was against the Cowboys. Offensive coordinator Matt Canada is featuring rookie running back Najee Harris, who looked good against Dallas, and more motion in Pittsburgh's attack.  I highly doubt Ben Roethlisberger sees any action. I doubt, too, the Eagles will put Jalen Hurts on the field.  The Steelers have three decent backup quarterbacks as far as preseason goes with Mason Rudolph, Dwayne Haskins and Joshua Dobbs. Pittsburgh's No. 2 job is open so there should be good competition between these three.  The Eagles have a new head coach, Nick Sirianni, and a new coaching staff. Their backup QB's are veteran Joe Flacco and Nick Mullens. Flacco has no incentive. He's a veteran with a monster contract. Mullens is coming off a season-ending elbow injury he suffered last year with the 49ers. Mullens hasn't looked good in camp, by various reports. Philadelphia is inexperienced at wide receiver. The ones that are healthy haven't impressed. The Eagles got a bad break when first round pick DVonta Smith, the Heisman Trophy winner, suffered a knee injury. He may have to miss the entire preseason. Look for Flacco just to game manage things before turning it over to Mullens.  So I give a strong check mark to the Steelers' defense.  The Eagles also could find themselves constantly starting in poor field position if Pittsburgh rookie punter Pressley Harvin III performs as well as he did against the Cowboys. Harvin dropped one punt on the Dallas 1. Another punt went out of bounds at the Dallas 11 and another Harvin punt was fumbled by the Cowboys. These weren't fluke occurrences. I considered Harvin to be the best punter in the draft.Â
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08-23-19 | Browns v. Bucs +3 | Top | 12-13 | Win | 100 | 58 h 10 m | Show |
Beating preseason football is about finding teams who care meeting those who don't while also getting value on the line. This pattern fits the Buccaneers right now in their Friday home game against the Browns.  Tampa Bay has been preparing for this matchup like it were a regular-season game. Jameis Winston figures to see his most action. The Buccaneers have a deep set of quality wide receivers and a preseason superstar in backup quarterback Ryan Griffin, who has thrown for 531 yards and two touchdowns with no interceptions in Tampa Bay's first two preseason contests.  Browns coach Freddie Kitchens said he won't reveal how much his starters are going to play Friday, but indications are the Browns won't be treating this exhibition as serious as Tampa Bay.  Cleveland is sitting at 2-0 with nothing to prove. The Browns aren't likely to use Odell Beckham Jr. and Myles Garrett because they aren't 100 percent. Cleveland is a false favorite here based on perception with its unbeaten preseason record and tremendous hype. The Bucs are home and the likely team to treat this game more serious than the Browns. Â
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