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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-14-21 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
Neither of these starting pitchers, Luke Weaver and Tony Gonsolin, moves the needle for me. Injuries have held back Weaver. He's been mediocre with a losing record and 4.24 ERA. Weaver has been at his worst on the road with an 8.20 ERA. LA is averaging six runs during its last three games.  Gonsolin doesn't have good control and doesn't go deep into games. The Dodgers will be lucky to get five innings out of him before turning things over to their vulnerable middle relief.  Arizona has scored 4 or more runs in eight of its last 10 games.  Mark Wegner is slated to be the home plate umpire, which is a plus for the Over. The Over has cashed in 16 of 24 games he's been behind the plate during the last two years for 67 percent. Tuesday Free Play  Rays plus $1.21 at Blue Jays  Toronto is 12-1 in its last 13 games. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is putting up MVP numbers leading the majors in homers with 45. So the oddsmaker is justified in making the Blue Jays a home favorite. This has perked my interest in the Rays. It's rare to get them in this plus price range. Tampa Bay has won 42 of its last 61 games. The Rays own the best road mark in the American League at 44-29.  Some of this line may be influenced by the Blue Jays' dominant 8-1 win over the Rays on Monday. Alek Manoah was magnificent, throwing a one-hitter in eight shutout innings. Manoah has the capability to do that against any team.  I see the Rays faring better facing today's starter, Joe Berrios, who is 0-2 with a 7.15 ERA in four lifetime starts versus Tampa Bay.  Drew Rasmussen is slated to start for Tampa Bay. He's 2-1 with a 3.25 ERA. We know how much Kevin Cash loves his bullpen and his relief pitching depth has increased with the return of Nick Anderson, who has been out with an elbow injury. Anderson was 5-1 with a 1.43 ERA during the previous two years. |
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09-10-21 | Angels +1.5 v. Astros | Top | 5-10 | Loss | -116 | 20 h 46 m | Show |
Shohei Ohtani leads the majors with 43 homers and topps the American League with a .608 slugging percentage. He's also not bad when it comes to pitching.  Ohtani is 9-1 with a 2.97 ERA. He's won his last eight decisions posting a 3.09 ERA with 85 strikeouts in 75 2/3 innings during this span. The Angels are 10-3 in Ohtani's last 13 starts.  So I feel very strong in backing Ohtani especially on the road taking 1 1/2 runs with an extra at bat being the visiting team. Ohtani faced the Astros once this year - giving up one run on four hits with one walk and 10 strikeouts in seven innings back on May 11.  Houston starter Framber Valdez has been solid with a 9-5 record and 3.08 ERA. The Astros' bullpen, though, hasn't been looking good lately. Valdez also has a mediocre 4.27 ERA in nine career appearances versus the Angels, including five starts.  The Angels were idle Thursday. They are 5-0 the past five times following a day off.
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09-08-21 | Twins v. Indians -125 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -125 | 15 h 7 m | Show |
The Twins have been one of the biggest money-burning teams in the league. They are 29-41 on the road. Aside from some power, the Twins are just average in runs and batting average. Their pitching is well below average.  The Twins draw a hot Triston McKenzie, one of the Indians' top pitching prospects. McKenzie has turned his season around finding his confidence. He's given up only two runs and five hits during his last three starts spanning 21 innings.  Minnesota is starting rookie Joe Ryan, who has a 5.40 ERA. This will be just his second career start.  The Indians have homered at least once in 19 of their last 20 games. They also have stolen 29 straight bases.Â
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09-07-21 | Phillies v. Brewers -102 | Top | 0-10 | Win | 100 | 22 h 50 m | Show |
It's like Aaron Nola and Eric Lauer have switched identities.  The unheralded Lauer has been pitching great for the Brewers giving up two or fewer earned runs in eight of his last nine starts. He's permitted just eight walks in his last seven starts. He held the Giants to one run on three hits in seven innings during his last start this past Thursday.  Nola no longer is the ace of the Phillies. He's been extremely mediocre this season with a 7-7 record and 4.54 ERA. Nola has yielded 14 earned runs in his last four starts spanning 22 1/3 innings.  The Phillies are six games below .500 when playing on the road. Nola's road ERA is 5.57.  Milwaukee is 38-31 at home. The Brewers shouldn't lack motivation after being embarrassed, 12-0, by the Phillies on Labor Day.Â
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09-06-21 | Giants v. Rockies +157 | Top | 10-5 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 46 m | Show |
The Rockies are extremely dangerous when playing at Coors Field. This is evidenced by their 45-24 home record. They lead the majors in homers, batting average and slugging percentage when playing at home.  The Giants are off a huge Sunday night home win against the Dodgers that concluded their three-game series. San Francisco accomplished this by beating the likely NL Cy Young Award winner, Walker Buehler. It was the first time in 12 career games the Giants defeated Buehler. It was just the Giants' third win in their last eight games.  Kyle Freeland gets the start for Colorado, which is 7-3 the past 10 times it has been an underdog. Freeland knows how to pitch at Coors Field. He has a 3.21 ERA in his last three starts.  Giants starter Kevin Gausman is falling back to earth after a big season. He's given up nine earned runs in his past four starts spanning 19 2/3 innings.Â
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09-04-21 | Twins v. Rays OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-11 | Win | 100 | 14 h 53 m | Show |
Considering the pitchers and offensive strengths of these two teams, I would have put this total at double-digits. It's at least one run short in my view. Only five teams have hit more homers than the Twins. No team is averaging more runs per game than the Rays. Tampa Bay has scored 5 or more runs in 13 of its last 17 games.  The Twins go against Chris Archer, who has thrown just six innings since April 10 as he works his way back into shape after being out four months with right forearm tightness. Archer hasn't been effective for the past six years. So I'm not expecting much. Nor am I expecting anything from Twins starter, 35-year-old Andrew Alberts. He has made just two starts since 2017.Â
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09-03-21 | Braves v. Rockies +129 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 129 | 19 h 40 m | Show |
It's a mistake to go against the Rockies at home especially with a young unproven pitcher.  Colorado leads the majors in homers, batting average and slugging percentage when playing at home. The Rockies are 43-23 - 20 games above .500 - when playing at Coors Field.  Braves righty Huascar Ynoa has thrown fewer than 87 big league innings. He has a 3.71 road ERA compared to a 2.29 home ERA. Colorado is 21-6 in its last 27 home games versus a righty starter.  Rockies starter Antonio Senzatela is that rare pitcher who pitches better at Coors Field. He has a 3.89 home ERA and a 4.56 road ERA. Senzatela is pitching the best stretch of his career with a 1.35 ERA in his last three starts. He just shut out the mighty Dodgers on two hits and a walk in seven innings during a 5-0 victory this past Sunday.  Star second baseman Ozzie Albies is questionable for the Braves with a knee injury that caused him to miss Thursday's game. |
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09-01-21 | Astros -125 v. Mariners | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -125 | 5 h 57 m | Show |
I like the superior Astros to bounce back today after losing, 4-0, to Seattle Tuesday night.  The Astros rank in the top two in runs and batting average. The Mariners are 30th in batting average and 22nd in runs.  Houston starter Jake Odorizzi is pitching better, holding three of his last four opponents to two earned runs or fewer. He just beat the Mariners, 15-1, on Aug. 21 giving up one run in 5 2/3 innings. Rookie Logan Gilbert is 5-5 with a 5.44 ERA for Seattle. He's been rocked for a 13.50 ERA during his last three starts. |
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08-30-21 | Twins v. Tigers +112 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 60 m | Show |
The game may be meaningless. But the price isn't. I don't understand the Twins opening a road favorite in a pitching matchup of Bailey Ober versus Casey Mize.  Before getting to that, though, consider the situation and Minnesota's road record.  The Twins are 25-39 away from home. Detroit has a winning home record and is a respectable 14-14 in its last 28 games. Minnesota is the fourth-biggest money loser this season for bettors. The Twins have dropped five of their last six road contests and are 0-4 during their past four games at Comerica Park.  Now the situation. Minnesota just hosted the Brewers for three games this past weekend. The Twins have to shoot off to Detroit for this lone game and then return home to host the Cubs on Tuesday and Wednesday. That's an unusual occurrence caused by a July 16 rainout. This is the makeup game from that date. So I question how caring and focused the Twins will be. Ober and Mize are young pitchers. Mize has the higher ceiling being one of the top prospects in baseball. He's 7-6 with a 3.55 ERA. Ober is 1-2 with a 4.06 ERA. Ober's ERA in day games is 4.43. I like Mize much better.  So I don't get why Minnesota opened the favorite here?Â
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08-26-21 | Nationals v. Marlins OVER 7.5 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 20 h 48 m | Show |
I see this total as being at least one run too low.  The Nationals average 4.5 runs on the road. They are averaging 5.7 runs during their last eight games. The Marlins average more than four runs per game at home.  The pitching matchup is lefty Patrick Corbin versus righty Elieser Hernandez.  Corbin has mostly been terrible this year. He's 7-12 with a 5.82 ERA. He's given up four or more earned runs in four of his past seven starts.  Hernandez, who has a 4.15 ERA, will be making just his fifth appearance of the season. He last started six days ago against the Reds and was tagged for five runs, four of which were earned, in 4 2/3 innings. Hernandez gave up two homers during that game.  The Nationals have the second-highest batting average against righthanders in the National League.  Note, too, that Joe West is slated to be the home plate umpire. The Over has won 59 percent of the time West has been behind the plate the past two years spanning 34 games.
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08-25-21 | Dodgers -136 v. Padres | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 18 m | Show |
Blake Snell has a solid history against the Dodgers. But he's trumped by Walker Buehler, who I consider the best pitcher in the National League with Jacob deGrom injured. Buehler hasn't yielded more than two runs during any of his last eight starts. Lifetime against the Padres, he's 4-0 with a 1.76 ERA.  The Padres aren't playing well, losers of 10 of their past 12 games. The Dodgers, by contrast, have won 10 of their last 11 games.Â
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08-24-21 | Angels -131 v. Orioles | Top | 14-8 | Win | 100 | 18 h 44 m | Show |
The Orioles are bad. How bad? Historically bad. Baltimore has lost by an average of 5.6 runs during its last 18 games - all losses. No team has dropped that many games in a row in 16 years. Not surprisingly, Baltimore is the worst team in the majors at 38-85. No way does Dylan Bundy want to lose to his former team. Bundy has been disappointing this season. Lately, though, he's been pitching better. He has a 3.00 ERA in his past three starts. The Angels' bullpen has shown improvement, too, posting a 3.51 ERA this month.  Spenser Watkins goes for Baltimore. He's fit right in with the other horrible Orioles starters. This month Watkins is 0-4 with an 8.24 ERA. He's backed by the worst bullpen in the American League.  Perhaps the Orioles finally end their long losing streak. But as long as the price is reasonable, which it is here, I'll go against Baltimore. Tuesday Free Play Twins plus $2.03 at Red Sox This is a monster price the Red Sox are being asked to lay, especially considering they aren't playing well and have unfavorable circumstances.  Boston is 2-4 in its last six games. The Red Sox were embarrassed, 10-1, by the Rangers this past Saturday committing a season-high five errors. Boston's Sunday game was postponed and then the Red Sox had to go 11 innings on Monday to defeat the Rangers, who are 8-26 since the All-Star break. That's the fewest wins of any team during this time span.  The Twins are in rebuild, but are better than the Rangers and in a good spot having been idle the past two days. They get back Miguel Sano from paternity leave. He's second on the team in homers and RBI's. The Twins have hit 15 more home runs than the Red Sox.  The pitching matchup is Griffin Jax versus Tanner Houck, who has better season numbers than Jax. However, the Red Sox are just 3-3 in Houck's last six starts. Jax has been pitching better going 2-0 with a 3.12 ERA in his last three starts.  So at this huge 'dog price, I'll throw a peanut on the Twins. |
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08-17-21 | Mets v. Giants UNDER 8 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 15 h 50 m | Show |
Marcus Stroman is a solid pitcher with a history of pitching well down the stretch. Stroman has held up his end of the bargain for the Mets with a 2.78 ERA.  Meanwhile, Giants starter Logan Webb has become a huge below-the-radar star especially when pitching at home where he's compiled a 1.58 ERA. Webb is in strong form, too, with a 1.50 ERA in his last three starts.  Webb faces a Mets lineup that is far below average in many of the key offensive categories, including 29th in scoring.  The forecast is for wind blowing out to left at around 13 mph, but this is off-set by Oracle Park being a pitcher's park and Jeremie Rehak slated to be the home plate umpire. The Under is 48-33 (59 percent) during Rehak's four-year big league career.Â
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08-16-21 | Mets v. Giants -1.5 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 110 | 19 h 24 m | Show |
The Mets just got swept by the Dodgers at home and now they have to fly cross-country after having played in the ESPN Sunday night game.   Major League Baseball certainly didn't do the Mets a favor here with this scheduling spot.  It's the first time the Mets have been on the West Coast - a three hour time difference for them - since June 6. Throw in a late night/early morning long flight and I don't see how the Mets can be sharp going against a Giants team that is a dominant 40-18 at home.  The Mets are 23-35 on the road. They are hurting in the middle infield with Javier Baez and Franscico Lindor both out.  New York also is facing Kevin Gausman, who has been the Giants' best pitcher with an 11-5 record and 2.29 ERA. Gausman is back in strong form, too, allowing just two earned runs in his last two starts spanning 11 innings. The Mets average the second-fewest runs per game in the majors.  Rich Hill is expected to get the start for the Mets, but New York is a fade no matter who starts. Hill has a 4.91 ERA in his last three starts.  The Giants are positioned well for this game. They rested catcher Buster Posey Sunday while also limiting the playing time of Kris Bryant and Evan Longoria.  This is a real kill spot for the Giants so I'm going to lay the 1 1/2 runs on the run line and turn a huge lay price into a plus price.Â
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08-15-21 | Cardinals v. Royals +112 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 36 m | Show |
A home 'dog with the better pitcher going. Sign me up for the Royals here.  Sooner or later, major league teams are going to figure out that time has run out on J.A. Happ. He's just not effective as his 6.34 ERA and 1.51 WHIP indicates. The Cardinals are the ninth team the lefty has been on since breaking into the big leagues in 2007.  The Royals play much better at home - 17 games better to be exact. Kansas City also has a winning record versus lefties.  Royals starter, lefty Kris Bubic, is 2-0 with a 3.06 ERA at home. The Cardinals are three games below .500 when playing on the road.  The Cardinals rank 21st in batting average versus southpaws while the Royals have the eighth highest batting average against lefties.  Wrong team favored here.Â
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08-13-21 | Blue Jays v. Mariners +1.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 9 m | Show |
Seattle doesn't get much respect. That's obvious seeing this high of a road price on the Blue Jays.  But the Marines are 35-24 at home this season. They rarely are out of games. If given plus 1 1/2 runs, Seattle would be 12-1 (92 percent) in its last 13 games.  Seattle starter Chris Flexen is 6-4 at home with a 2.67 ERA compared to a 5.44 road ERA. He's been tough in Seattle all season.  The Blue Jays aren't as fierce in pitcher's parks such as Seattle's T-Mobile Park. Toronto's offensive numbers are down across the board when comparing its home/road hitting statistics, including a drop of nearly 20 points in batting average. The Blue Jays have scored four runs or fewer in five of their past seven games.  A major reason for Toronto being such a prohibitive favorite is starter Robbie Ray. He's 9-5 with a 2.90 ERA. Ray has always been a high strikeout pitcher, but he's proven much more consistent this season with his command and control. He does have a 3.91 lifetime ERA against the Mariners in four career starts. But this isn't a fade on Ray. It's a play on the feisty Mariners.Â
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08-11-21 | Tigers -114 v. Orioles | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
The Tigers are better than perceived winning 25 of their last 43 games. The Orioles are as bad as perceived with a 38-73 record. Baltimore has lost five in a row, giving up at least 9 runs in each of these losses.  I'm going to ride the superior Tigers at this low of a lay price in a pitching matchup of leftyTarik Skubal versus Matt Harvey. Skubal is coming off five scoreless innings against the Red Sox in an 8-1 victory six days ago. Baltimore is 8-18 in its last 26 games versus a lefty starter.  Harvey had pitched 18 1/3 scoreless innings until his last outing when he gave up two runs in four innings against the Yankees. Despite that hot streak, Harvey still has a 6.13 ERA. I consider that hot streak a fluke judging by various pitching metrics and how poorly he has pitched most of the season and the past four years before that.Â
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08-10-21 | Tigers +100 v. Orioles | Top | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 16 h 14 m | Show |
I had the Tigers as very strong favorites in this game with a pitching matchup of Casey Mize versus Keegan Akin. So I'm pleasantly surprised to see this line.  Mize is one the top pitching prospects in baseball. The right-hander faced the Orioles on July 29 and held them to one unearned run on four hits in seven innings. The Orioles are second-to-last in the American League in on-base percentage versus righties and 13th in slugging percentage against righthanders.  The Tigers are 24-18 in their last 42 games. The Orioles own the second-worst record in baseball at 38-72. Baltimore has lost 75 percent of its last 51 games when facing a righty starter.  Lefty Keegan Akin goes for Baltimóre backed by one of the worst bullpens in the majors. Akin gave up six runs on eight hits in only three innings during his previous start, which came on July 16 against the Royals. Akin is 0-5 on the season with a 7.66 ERA. |
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08-09-21 | Yankees v. Royals UNDER 10 | Top | 8-6 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
Jameson Taillon has been sailing under-the-radar. He's one of the hottest pitchers in baseball having surrendered just six runs in his last six starts spanning 37 1/3 innings. He is 2-0 lifetime against the Royals in two career starts with a 0.68 ERA and a 17-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio.  The Royals rank 25th in runs and 27th in homers.  Kansas City starter Carlos Hernandez also has been hot. His last two starts have both come against the White Sox, who have scored the sixth-most runs per game in the majors. Hernandez held the White Sox to one run on six hits in 11 innings during these starts with 10 strikeouts.  The Yankees just were shut out, 2-0, by the Mariners on Sunday. New York is minus Anthony Rizzo and Gary Sanchez. Those two players have hit 17 homers apiece this season.  The Under is 12-2 in the Yankees' last 14 road contests, while the Under is 8-1-2 during the Royals' last 11 games as a home 'dog.Â
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08-08-21 | Mets v. Phillies UNDER 8.5 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
A discussion of National League Cy Young Award candidates should include Zach Wheeler. He's replaced Aaron Nola as the top pitcher on the Phillies staff. Wheeler is 9-6 with a 2.57 ERA. He leads the National League with 170 strikeouts.  Wheeler has been at his best in day action going 5-1 with a 1.70 ERA. He's facing a slumping Mets team that is averaging only 2.8 runs during their last 17 games.  Mets starter Taijuan Walker has proven talented when healthy, which he is now. He's 7-6 with a 3.86 ERA. He catches a Phillies lineup that could be minus three of their infielders as Rhys Hoskins, Didi Gregorius and Jean Segura are all nursing injuries.  Both pitchers should be helped by the wind blowing in to left at 8 mph.Â
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08-07-21 | Marlins v. Rockies -155 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 16 h 10 m | Show |
Austin Gomber sounds like he could be a relative of Gomber and Goober Pyle. But there's nothing funny about how he has been pitching. Gomber is 6-1 with a 2.08 ERA during his last 10 starts.  Gomber knows how to pitch at Coors Field, too, where he is 4-1 with a 1.98 ERA this season.  Pitching at Coors is a relatively new experience for Jesus Luzardo. So is pitching in the majors. This is just his second big league start of the season for Luzardo, who has thrown 5 2/3 career innings at Coors and has a 7.94 ERA to show for that.  The Rockies and Marlins are bottom-feeders. But Colorado is a completely different team at Coors compiling a 36-21 mark there this season. The Marlins traded Starling Marte, their lone dynamic player.Â
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08-06-21 | Mets v. Phillies UNDER 9 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 15 h 30 m | Show |
Considering their huge payroll and name hitters in their lineup, it's shocking the Mets rank 29th in runs. New York hasn't scored more than 5 runs during its last 15 games.  So I'm not expecting a big offensive showing from the Mets against Kyle Gibson and a Phillies bullpen that improved their depth at the trade deadline. Gibson is enjoying a long-awaited breakthrough season with a 2.86 ERA. His ERA with the Phillies is 2.70.  The Mets are going with Marcus Stroman, who is the best active pitcher on their staff with Jacob deGrom on IL. Stroman has been solid all season with a 2.80 ERA. He has a 2.50 career ERA versus the Phillies. Stroman has a 2.19 ERA when pitching in night games this season.   Friday Free Bonus Play Red Sox plus $1.28 at Blue Jays  The Red Sox didn't play well against the Tigers on Thursday and they were smacked, 8-1. The Red Sox are a high quality team in bounce back mode. They are 31-24 on the road. That loss to the Tigers should wake up the Red Sox. So I'm attracted to taking a 'dog price on them.  The pitching matchup is Nathan Eovaldi versus rookie Alek Manoah. I really like Manoah, who has struck out 56 batters in 47 1/3 innings. He can be inconsistent, like most young pitchers, but this isn't a play against him. Rather it's a value play on the Red Sox. Boston is averaging just 2.5 runs in its last nine games. The Red Sox are putting on baserunners, though. They're just not capitalizing as during their last nine games they've knocked in only nine of 75 runners in scoring position, a meager 12 percent. That percentage is due to rise.  Eovaldi has been steady with a 9-6 mark and 3.71 ERA in 21 starts this year. He holds a 3.63 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in eight career appearances against Toronto. Eovaldi faced the Blue Jays on June 14 and held them scoreless during his 6 2/3 innings. |
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08-05-21 | Royals v. White Sox -1.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -106 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
The White Sox should be steaming mad having been embarrassed, 9-1, at home by the Royals Wednesday. Dallas Keuchel shouldn't lack motivation either as he takes the mound for Chicago after failing to hold a 6-1 lead against the Indians in his last start this past Saturday.  Keuchel, a two-time All-Star, is past his prime at 33. But he's not over-the-hill. He's backed by an improved bullpen that recently added Craig Kimbrel. I expect a kill spot here for the White Sox facing lefty Daniel Lynch. The White Sox are 38-19 at home. They are 20-10 versus southpaw starters. The Royals are 18-35 on the road.Â
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08-04-21 | Braves -115 v. Cardinals | Top | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 49 m | Show |
The Braves scored five runs in the first inning on lefty Jon Lester on Tuesday. Now the Braves get to face another over-the-hill southpaw, J.A. Happ.  Atlanta strengthened itself at the trade deadline especially when it comes to right-handed power getting Jorge Soler and Adam Duvall. I can see the Braves steamrolling Happ, who has given up 4 or more earned runs in 10 of his last 14 starts.  Drew Smyly goes for Atlanta. He's allowed 3 runs or fewer in each of his last 10 starts. Smyly is 1-0 with a 1.86 ERA in two career starts versus St. Louis. He pitched 5 2/3 scoreless innings against the Cardinals on June 20 giving up only an infield single.Â
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08-03-21 | Giants v. Diamondbacks UNDER 9.5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 16 h 19 m | Show |
Don't get fooled by the 19 runs scored in the Giants' 11-8 extra inning win against the Diamondbacks on Monday. I'm expecting a much different type of score in this game. Projected starters Johnny Cueto and Madison Bumgarner are both past their prime. Agreed. But both are in excellent form. Cueto has a 2.30 ERA in his last three starts. He just shut out the Dodgers in his last start this past Thursday holding LA scoreless for 5 2/3 innings on four hits. Arizona is well below average offensively. The Diamondbacks have hit the second-fewest homers in the majors.  The Giants were able to rest their two best relievers, Jake McGee and Tyler Rogers, in their Monday victory.  Bumgarner has a 2.00 ERA in his last three starts. He should be pumped going against his former team.Â
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08-02-21 | Mariners v. Rays OVER 8.5 | Top | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 17 h 18 m | Show |
I like the Rays, but I don't like them when Michael Wacha pitches. I like the Mariners when Chris Flexen pitches at home. Flexen is on the road.  The combination of Flexen on the road versus Wacha helps put me on the Over. Each team should be good for at least four runs. Seattle has scored 4 or more runs in eight of its last nine games.  The addition of power-hitting Nelson Cruz has made Tampa Bay more dangerous. The Rays are averaging 8.2 runs in their last four games.  Flexen isn't the same away from pitcher-friendly Seattle. He has a 5.92 road ERA compared to a 2.67 home ERA.  Wacha has a 4.79 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. He's a below average starter with a bad history against the Mariners - 8.25 ERA and 2.33 WHIP in 12 previous innings against them. The Over has cashed the past five times the teams have played in Tropicana Field.Â
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08-01-21 | Brewers +137 v. Braves | Top | 2-1 | Win | 137 | 10 h 34 m | Show |
The Braves have home field and the better starting pitcher. But that's it. The Brewers hold the rest of the edges and are a superior team. Milwaukee is 19 games above .500. Atlanta has a losing record.  The Brewers have proven themselves on the road going 33-19.  There's too much value to pass up Milwaukee here.  The pitching matchup is Brett Anderson versus Charlie Morton. Anderson has a 3.86 ERA. He's a bottom-of-the-rotation type starter, but a very legitimate one. Anderson is more than capable of throwing five solid innings before turning things over to a very strong Brewers bullpen.  The Braves dealt for Adam Duvall, Jorge Soler and Eddie Rosario to beef up their offense. Their attack, though, needed beefing up after losing Ronald Acuna to injury and Marcell Ozuna to suspension.  The right-handed Morton has a 3.72 ERA, which isn't that much lower than Anderson's. Milwaukee is 20-6 (77 percent) the past 26 times facing a righty starter. The Braves bullpen is slightly below average with a 4.39 ERA.Â
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07-31-21 | A's v. Angels UNDER 10 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
If you can't beat him, walk him. That's been the A's motto this series when facing Shohei Ohtani. It's paid off for Oakland as they have shut out the Angels in each of the first two games. Oakland can get away with this strategy because the Angels are missing three key bats - Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon and Jared Walsh.  These injuries have taken a toll. The Angels have scored 4 or fewer runs in nine of their last 12 games.  The A's, though, haven't been lighting the scoreboard on fire either. They've been held to 4 or fewer runs in six of their past seven games.  The total is high because of the pitching matchup, Cole Irvin versus Jaime Barria.  Irvin, however, has been sneaky effective with a respectable 3.62 ERA. Barria has a fat 6.23 ERA. However, he's only thrown 13 innings. Barria made his first start of the year this past Sunday and held the Twins to two runs on four hits in seven innings. His fastball topped off higher than 95 mph in that game, the fastest he's ever thrown.  There is wind blowing out to right at about 9 mph, but this is more than offset with Tripp Gibson being the projected home plate umpire. The Under is a staggering 16-4 (80 percent) in games Gibson has been the home plate umpire in this season. |
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