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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-22-16 | TCU +6.5 v. West Virginia | Top | 10-34 | Loss | -109 | 26 h 8 m | Show |
West Virginia has been a nice surprise, but I like TCU here. I'm not sold on West Virginia's defense, nor the Mountaineers' ability to control the trenches. The Horned Frogs have 21 sacks. Â |
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10-16-16 | Colts v. Texans -3 | Top | 23-26 | Push | 0 | 125 h 45 m | Show |
This line is off. These teams aren't even, which the oddsmaker is insinuating opening the game Houston minus 3 with home-field usually worth a field goal. |
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10-16-16 | Chiefs +1.5 v. Raiders | Top | 26-10 | Win | 100 | 127 h 17 m | Show |
I like the Chiefs a lot here for three main reasons: They are the superior team. The situation. And the line value with the Raiders opening the favorite. |
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10-15-16 | Arizona State +12 v. Colorado | Top | 16-40 | Loss | -108 | 29 h 56 m | Show |
Colorado isn't used to be in this lofty role - and the Buffaloes don't deserve to be nearly two touchdowns favorite here against a Pac-12 foe that isn't any less talented, bigger and faster than they are. Â |
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10-13-16 | Broncos -3 v. Chargers | Top | 13-21 | Loss | -123 | 57 h 54 m | Show |
San Diego has lost its last 10 AFC West matchups. I don't see that streak ending with this game. |
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10-09-16 | Chargers +4 v. Raiders | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 140 h 15 m | Show |
The Chargers are 1-3, but have outscored their opponents by 13 points. The Raiders are 3-1 and have outscored their foes by two points. |
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10-08-16 | BYU v. Michigan State -5.5 | Top | 31-14 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 44 m | Show |
Life as an independent isn't easy these days. BYU is experiencing that. The Cougars have played one of the toughest schedules in the country and now play in the Eastern Time Zone for the second time in two weeks. |
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10-03-16 | Giants v. Vikings -4 | Top | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 174 h 56 m | Show |
Maybe the oddsmaker hasn't caught on yet. But the Vikings' home field advantage, with their new indoor $16 billion stadium, is worth four points right there and these teams are not even. The Vikings are much better. |
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10-02-16 | Panthers -3 v. Falcons | Top | 33-48 | Loss | -120 | 122 h 31 m | Show |
Carolina already has more regular season losses than it did during last year's regular season. That's because the Panthers have gone against two of the top defenses in the NFL - Broncos and Vikings. |
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09-29-16 | Dolphins v. Bengals -7 | Top | 7-22 | Win | 100 | 44 h 22 m | Show |
There is more than a touchdown class difference here factoring in Cincinnati's home field advantage. This is made more by the Dolphins traveling on a short week and their multiple injuries. |
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09-25-16 | Redskins +4.5 v. Giants | Top | 29-27 | Win | 100 | 109 h 50 m | Show |
I want desperate teams, especially taking this many points in a division matchup. It's circle-the-wagons time for the 0-2 Redskins. |
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09-24-16 | Oklahoma State +8 v. Baylor | Top | 24-35 | Loss | -110 | 70 h 32 m | Show |
I haven't been impressed with Baylor, which has played weak competition and didn't cover any of its three games. Facing Northwestern State, SMU and Rice is not a good non-conference buildup to stepping up against Oklahoma State. It's not stepping out to say the Bears played the weakest non-conference schedule of any Big 12 team. |
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09-23-16 | USC v. Utah -3 | Top | 27-31 | Win | 100 | 47 h 1 m | Show |
The wheels are coming off USC under Clay Helton. The Trojans are 1-4 since he was named permanent coach during last season. The Trojans have bad chemistry and face a Utah squad big on revenge after losing to the Trojans, 42-24, last year. The Utes were 6-0 entering that game, ranked seventh in the country. |
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09-19-16 | Eagles v. Bears -3 | Top | 29-14 | Loss | -125 | 154 h 58 m | Show |
This line is too short. The Bears are much superior to the Eagles. The line doesn't reflect that because it's just Week 2 and the oddsmaker is swayed by how well Eagles rookie quarterback Carson Wentz looked opening week and the Bears losing and not covering versus the Texans. |
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09-18-16 | 49ers v. Panthers -13 | Top | 27-46 | Win | 100 | 110 h 21 m | Show |
I see this as a clear kill spot for the Panthers and I want to lock in now before the number hits 14 - which it will and then probably still go higher. Â |
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09-11-16 | Vikings -3 v. Titans | Top | 25-16 | Win | 100 | 1078 h 8 m | Show |
Minnesota is much superior to Tennessee in all facets except quarterback and that includes coaching. The Vikings have their sights set on reaching the Super Bowl. Their roster is very strong with lots of young defensive talent, Adrian Peterson to take the pressure off Shaun Hill, more wide receiving threats and an upgraded offensive line. |
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09-11-16 | Bears +4.5 v. Texans | Top | 14-23 | Loss | -110 | 1078 h 51 m | Show |
I'm skeptical of Brock Osweiler and a banged-up offensive line that is likely to be without star left tackle Duane Brown. I'm certainly not swallowing the hype on Osweiler. |
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09-10-16 | Washington State +10.5 v. Boise State | Top | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 74 h 36 m | Show |
Washington State under Mike Leach has been at its best versus strong competition and as a road 'dog, both of which are in play here. The Cougars are 7-1 ATS the past eight times versus above .500 opponents and have covered 12 of the last 15 times as an away underdog. |
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09-08-16 | Panthers -3 v. Broncos | Top | 20-21 | Loss | -110 | 276 h 26 m | Show |
I see the Panthers getting their revenge on the Broncos after losing to Denver in the Super Bowl. Carolina didn't lose the Super Bowl based on talent. The Panthers out-gained the Broncos by 121 yards and had 10 more first downs than Denver. |
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09-03-16 | LSU -9.5 v. Wisconsin | Top | 14-16 | Loss | -110 | 103 h 4 m | Show |
First it's important to note this game isn't in Madison. It's in Green Bay at Lambeau Field and LSU expects to have 30,000 fans. The seating capacity is 80,735. So almost half the crowd will be for the Tigers. |
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09-02-16 | Colorado State v. Colorado -8.5 | Top | 7-44 | Win | 100 | 35 h 8 m | Show |
Colorado has its best team since 2007 with 18 returning starters. Colorado State could have its worst team in five years. Yet because some look upon this matchup as some sort of in-state rivalry, the spread is less than double-digits. |
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02-07-16 | Panthers v. Broncos +4.5 | Top | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 324 h 5 m | Show |
Five times Denver has been an underdog this season. Five times the Broncos have covered winning four of those games straight-up. |
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01-24-16 | Patriots -3 v. Broncos | Top | 18-20 | Loss | -115 | 153 h 10 m | Show |
Both defenses are very good. The difference - and it's huge - is quarterback. Tom Brady is 38, but remains in the argument for best quarterback in the league. No quarterback threw for more touchdowns. |
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01-11-16 | Alabama v. Clemson +7 | Top | 45-40 | Win | 100 | 136 h 0 m | Show |
Now that plus 7's are on the board, I'm pouncing on Clemson, unbeaten this season and winners of 17 in a row. |
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01-09-16 | Chiefs -3 v. Texans | Top | 30-0 | Win | 100 | 125 h 44 m | Show |
Kansas City is the hottest team in the NFL winning 10 in a row. The Chiefs beat the Texans by a touchdown at Houston in Week 1 and nothing has changed. The Chiefs still are the superior team. The Texans are just thrilled to have reached the playoffs courtesy only of being in the worst division. Prop Bet (Taken from Westgate) |
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01-03-16 | Raiders +7.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 35 h 44 m | Show |
The Raiders have a history of playing their long-time hated division rival tough and I expect that to be the case again. Oakland has covered seven of the past nine times playing in Kansas City. The teams are 5-5 during their past 10 meetings. Only once in the last eight years have the Chiefs swept the Raiders. Unlike previous seasons, the Raiders under their first-year coach Jack Del Rio have showed resolve while playing much better on the road. They have a winning away mark and have covered in four of their last five road matchups. Not once have the Raiders lost by more than five points on the road this season. The Chiefs realize that Denver isn't going to lose to San Diego so they won't be winning the AFC South Division title. Both their game and the Broncos game kick off late so the Chiefs will be distracted doing some scoreboard watching. If the Broncos break out early against the Chargers - and they are double-digit favorites at some books - it wouldn't be surprising if Andy Reid starting resting starters in order to have them fresh for next week's playoffs. The Raiders really want to finish 8-8. All of their quotes this week point to that - and those quotes come across to me as sincere. I see the Raiders playing with a lot of energy and emotion. They are fortified with extra rest having played last Thursday. The Chiefs are banged up with their two best edge pass rushers, Justin Houston and Tamba Hali, questionable. Oakland led Kansas City by six points in the fourth quarter when they met four weeks ago. But Derek Carr had a meltdown with three turnovers and the Chiefs won by a misleading 34-20 score. Carr has proven himself this season making giant steps going from game manager to dangerous playmaker. I like him far more than Alex Smith. The Chiefs are 9-0 in their last nine games, 7-2 ATS. They also are plus 19 in turnover ratio during this time. They are more about precision and takeaways than some dominant opponent. The Raiders can definitely hang with them if not pull the outright upset. |
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01-01-16 | Tennessee -8 v. Northwestern | Top | 45-6 | Win | 100 | 20 h 6 m | Show |
Not only do I like fading a Big Ten team against an SEC foe, but Northwestern doesn't have nearly enough offense to hang within double-digits of Tennessee. |
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12-31-15 | Oklahoma v. Clemson +4 | Top | 17-37 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
Clemson has won 16 in a row and buried Oklahoma, 40-6, last season in a bowl game despite missing Deshaun Watson. So I don't comprehend this line. At worst, these two teams are even. |
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12-30-15 | Wisconsin v. USC -3 | Top | 23-21 | Loss | -120 | 326 h 27 m | Show |
USC is a team few opponents want to match up against in a bowl game. Wisconsin doesn't have the quarterback and skill level to beat the Trojans, especially when traveling to the West Coast to take on USC in its natural environs of Southern California. |
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12-28-15 | Central Michigan +4.5 v. Minnesota | Top | 14-21 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 15 m | Show |
I've always given credit to Minnesota for being a well-coached feisty team. I like the Gophers - when they are 'dogs not favorites. I'm not a fan of their quarterback, Mitch Leidner. He has just three more touchdown passes than interceptions on the season and completed less than 58 percent of his throws. Central Michigan has the far better quarterback, Cooper Rush, and the superior offense. Only 10 quarterbacks threw for more yards this season than Rush. |
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12-27-15 | Packers v. Cardinals -4 | Top | 8-38 | Win | 100 | 145 h 9 m | Show |
Given Arizona's home field advantage, the line is short here. Arizona ranks with Carolina and New England as one of the three best teams in football. Those three teams are complete teams without a weakness. The Packers are at a "B" level closer to "C" than "A" with their struggling passing attack. The Packers have been outgained on the season. |
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12-26-15 | Tulsa +14 v. Virginia Tech | Top | 52-55 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
Much is being made of this being coach Frank Beamer's final game for Virginia Tech after 29 years. Truth be told, Beamer should have retired a few years ago because the Hokies have been going downhill. They were just 6-6 this season not clinching a bowl berth until their final regular season game. They are just 16-15 during their last 31 games and 7-15-2 ATS in their last 24 non-conference games. |
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12-24-15 | Cincinnati v. San Diego State -3 | Top | 7-42 | Win | 100 | 15 h 45 m | Show |
Cincinnati hopes to rebound from a disappointing season with a win here in the Hawaii Bowl. Don't look for that to happen. The matchup, spot, coaching and intangibles all clearly point to San Diego State, which enters this matchup red-hot winning nine in a row while coming within 1 1/2 points of also being 9-0 ATS. |
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12-20-15 | Cardinals -3.5 v. Eagles | Top | 40-17 | Win | 100 | 34 h 34 m | Show |
Only once in seven games have the Cardinals lost on the road. They have the passing attack and pass defense to easily cover this number against the Eagles and win their eighth consecutive game. |
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12-19-15 | Jets -3 v. Cowboys | Top | 19-16 | Push | 0 | 103 h 22 m | Show |
Dallas can't win with a quarterback as bad as Matt Cassel under center against a quality opponent such as the Jets. The Cowboys are 1-6 in Cassel's seven starts. All of the losses except one have been by more than three points. |
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12-13-15 | Redskins v. Bears -3 | Top | 24-21 | Loss | -125 | 105 h 22 m | Show |
Chicago is fired-up and angry after blowing a home game to San Francisco this past Sunday. I like the Bears' coaching edge and situation advantage against Washington, which is traveling on a short week following a home loss on Monday night to division rival Dallas. |
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12-10-15 | Vikings v. Cardinals -7.5 | Top | 20-23 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 10 m | Show |
It's difficult enough being the road team for a Thursday night game. It's especially difficult for the Vikings traveling to the desert following a mentally and physically draining 38-7 home loss to Seattle this past Sunday. |
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12-06-15 | Cardinals -5.5 v. Rams | Top | 27-3 | Win | 100 | 148 h 30 m | Show |
The Cardinals have revenge for a frustrating 24-22 loss to the Rams in Week 4 when they had to settle for four field goals in four touchdown-less red zone trips. |
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11-29-15 | Chargers +4.5 v. Jaguars | Top | 31-25 | Win | 100 | 58 h 44 m | Show |
So why back a San Diego team that is 2-8 and has lost six in a row as a monster 50-Dime play? A combination of Philip Rivers, a due factor and the Jaguars being overpriced. |
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11-28-15 | Ohio State v. Michigan | Top | 42-13 | Win | 100 | 19 h 45 m | Show |
Michigan State didn't do Michigan any favors beating Ohio State last week ending the Buckeyes' 23-game winning streak. The Buckeyes are going to be super focused now and ready for this game and not just because of the long-time intense rivalry. Ohio State has proven itself on the road covering 71 percent of its last 56 road games. |
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11-26-15 | Panthers +1 v. Cowboys | Top | 33-14 | Win | 100 | 41 h 2 m | Show |
Sometimes the best handicap formula is just the most obvious. Carolina is better than Dallas and it's not even close. |
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11-22-15 | Jets -3 v. Texans | Top | 17-24 | Loss | -120 | 26 h 41 m | Show |
Not only are the Texans on a short week in an emotionally distracting week following their Monday road upset win against the Bengals, but backup T.J. Yates is their quarterback for this game. |
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11-15-15 | Cardinals v. Seahawks -3 | Top | 39-32 | Loss | -110 | 65 h 8 m | Show |
The Seahawks haven't lost a game coming off a bye since 2012. I don't see them losing at home either in this matchup. Seattle is 4-4. Arizona is 6-2. Obviously this is a must-win spot for Seattle. |
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11-14-15 | Washington State +10.5 v. UCLA | Top | 31-27 | Win | 100 | 34 h 5 m | Show |
Everything is in place for Washington State to pull the upset and defeat UCLA. Even if that doesn't happen, the Cougars should definitely be able to hang in. To get double-digits is a nice bonus. |
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11-09-15 | Bears +4.5 v. Chargers | Top | 22-19 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
San Diego isn't nearly good enough to overcome its multitude of injuries to beat many teams by more than a field goal, including the Bears. |
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11-07-15 | Hawaii v. UNLV -9.5 | Top | 21-41 | Win | 100 | 36 h 21 m | Show |
I've never been in the habit of laying points with UNLV, but circumstances make this a bargain spot to back the Rebels.
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11-03-15 | Northern Illinois +8 v. Toledo | Top | 32-27 | Win | 100 | 28 h 10 m | Show |
Toledo is unbeaten at 7-0. But I'm not convinced the Rockets are better than Northern Illinois. |
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