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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-15-16 | Arizona State +12 v. Colorado | Top | 16-40 | Loss | -108 | 29 h 56 m | Show |
Colorado isn't used to be in this lofty role - and the Buffaloes don't deserve to be nearly two touchdowns favorite here against a Pac-12 foe that isn't any less talented, bigger and faster than they are. Â |
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10-15-16 | New Mexico v. Air Force OVER 56.5 | 45-40 | Win | 100 | 67 h 9 m | Show | |
This has been a high scoring series ever since Bob Davie took over at New Mexico in 2012. The combined score of their matchup during the past three years is 82 points in 2013, 66 in 2014 and 82 last season. Look for that trend to continue in Saturday's game, which is on the fast track of the Cotton Bowl in Dallas. |
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10-15-16 | Kansas State +13 v. Oklahoma | 17-38 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 1 m | Show | |
I love Bill Snyder as a big road 'dog. The Wildcats have covered 17 of their last 22 as a road 'dog. |
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10-13-16 | Broncos -3 v. Chargers | Top | 13-21 | Loss | -123 | 57 h 54 m | Show |
San Diego has lost its last 10 AFC West matchups. I don't see that streak ending with this game. |
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10-09-16 | Giants v. Packers OVER 47.5 | Top | 16-23 | Loss | -115 | 35 h 55 m | Show |
Aaron Rodgers is very good at any venue, but he's an absolute monster at Lambeau Field where since 2014 he has thrown 46 touchdown passes and been picked off just four times. The Giants' defense is improved, but not nearly enough to slow down Green Bay's offense, which showed definite improvement in its last game and is coming off a bye. Jordy Nelson is nearing 100 percent, making a big difference for Green Bay. |
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10-09-16 | Bengals v. Cowboys | 14-28 | Loss | -115 | 77 h 26 m | Show | |
The Bengals are at least a whole another tier higher than Dallas. The Cowboys are thrilled when they beat the lowly 49ers. The Bengals - who have made the playoffs five straight years - expect to the beat the 49ers. That's a huge difference between these two. |
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10-09-16 | Chargers +4 v. Raiders | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 140 h 15 m | Show |
The Chargers are 1-3, but have outscored their opponents by 13 points. The Raiders are 3-1 and have outscored their foes by two points. |
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10-09-16 | Texans +6.5 v. Vikings | 13-31 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 16 m | Show | |
This is going to be a defensive, grind-it-out type of game as reflected in the total, which is the second-lowest on the Week 5 menu. So taking a lot of points makes sense especially given the matchup and spot. |
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10-08-16 | UNLV v. San Diego State OVER 53 | Top | 7-26 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 7 m | Show |
Before getting upset by South Alabama, San Diego State had scored 45 points on Cal and 42 on Northern Illinois. The Aztecs have proven they can pile up points against suspect defenses. UNLV ranks 84th in scoring defense allowing 30.4 points a game. |
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10-08-16 | Tennessee v. Texas A&M UNDER 57 | 38-45 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 17 m | Show | |
The oddsmaker isn't given these defenses enough respect making the total this high. |
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10-08-16 | Air Force v. Wyoming +12 | 26-35 | Win | 100 | 19 h 3 m | Show | |
I like the spot, matchup and Wyoming's pedigree against Air Force. The Cowboys have covered the past seven times versus Air Force. |
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10-08-16 | BYU v. Michigan State -5.5 | Top | 31-14 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 44 m | Show |
Life as an independent isn't easy these days. BYU is experiencing that. The Cougars have played one of the toughest schedules in the country and now play in the Eastern Time Zone for the second time in two weeks. |
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10-08-16 | Bowling Green v. Ohio UNDER 62 | 24-30 | Win | 100 | 20 h 3 m | Show | |
Bowling Green ranks 127th in yards gained. The Falcons are barely averaging 17 points. They aren't going to do much against Ohio, which has one of the better defenses in the MAC. It's been beyond a dismal season for the Falcons, but they should not lack for motivation after falling to Eastern Michigan at home last week. |
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10-06-16 | Cardinals -175 v. 49ers | Top | 33-21 | Win | 100 | 19 h 7 m | Show |
I like the Cardinals to win here, but because Drew Stanton is replacing injured Carson Palmer I'm going to play Arizona on the money line rather than lay more than a field goal. |
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10-06-16 | Western Kentucky -135 v. Louisiana Tech | 52-55 | Loss | -135 | 19 h 41 m | Show | |
This should be an exciting, high-scoring game. But Western Kentucky is the superior team with a stronger defense, better special teams and more weapons offensively than Louisiana Tech. |
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10-03-16 | Giants v. Vikings -4 | Top | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 174 h 56 m | Show |
Maybe the oddsmaker hasn't caught on yet. But the Vikings' home field advantage, with their new indoor $16 billion stadium, is worth four points right there and these teams are not even. The Vikings are much better. |
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10-02-16 | Chiefs v. Steelers OVER 47 | 14-43 | Win | 100 | 23 h 56 m | Show | |
Look for the Steelers offense and Ben Roethlisberger to pick up now that Le'Veon Bell has returned to the lineup. Not only is Bell a top-five running back, but he also could be the team's second-best receiver behind only the incomparable Antonio Brown. |
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10-02-16 | Broncos -3 v. Bucs | 27-7 | Win | 100 | 17 h 48 m | Show | |
Let's not overthink this game. Tampa Bay is 3-15 SU, 5-13 ATS in its last 18 home games. The Buccaneers don't know how to beat a good opponent such as the Broncos and this isn't a good fundamental matchup either for them. |
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10-02-16 | Panthers -3 v. Falcons | Top | 33-48 | Loss | -120 | 122 h 31 m | Show |
Carolina already has more regular season losses than it did during last year's regular season. That's because the Panthers have gone against two of the top defenses in the NFL - Broncos and Vikings. |
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10-01-16 | Western Michigan v. Central Michigan OVER 55.5 | Top | 49-10 | Win | 100 | 66 h 2 m | Show |
This total is lined well shortt of what it should be. Western Michigan edged Central Michigan, 41-39, last season in a game that had a combined 80 points scored. The offenses are just as potent this season. |
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10-01-16 | Illinois v. Nebraska OVER 52.5 | 16-31 | Loss | -111 | 45 h 46 m | Show | |
Tommy Armstrong is playing as good, if not better, than any quarterback in the Big Ten. The dual-threat senior has thrown for 931 yards, rushed for four touchdowns and has just one interception. Thanks to Armstrong, the Cornhuskers put up 43 points versus Fresno State, 52 against Wyoming, 35 versus Oregon and 556 yards against Northwestern last week. |
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10-01-16 | Buffalo v. Boston College UNDER 39.5 | 3-35 | Win | 100 | 15 h 27 m | Show | |
Buffalo ranks No. 2 in the nation in pass defense. Boston College coach Steve Addazio already has stated his intentions to have his team run the ball a lot. That's another plus for the under. |
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10-01-16 | Buffalo +19 v. Boston College | 3-35 | Loss | -107 | 15 h 23 m | Show | |
Boston College has Clemson on deck so a full, all-out effort can't be a natural given. Chances are the Eagles could let up if building a safe lead. Buffalo has gotten better since turning to redshirt freshman quarterback Tyree Jackson, who has yet to be sacked. The Bulls rank No. 2 in pass defense. Boston College will attack via the ground, which is a plus for a big underdog. |
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10-01-16 | Notre Dame -10.5 v. Syracuse | 50-33 | Win | 100 | 39 h 12 m | Show | |
Now that Notre Dame has hit rock bottom expect a strong performance here against a weak defense. |
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09-29-16 | Dolphins v. Bengals -7 | Top | 7-22 | Win | 100 | 44 h 22 m | Show |
There is more than a touchdown class difference here factoring in Cincinnati's home field advantage. This is made more by the Dolphins traveling on a short week and their multiple injuries. |
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09-25-16 | Bears +6.5 v. Cowboys | 17-31 | Loss | -102 | 22 h 59 m | Show | |
I believe the Bears will respond better with Brian Hoyer under center than Jay Cutler, who isn't a popular teammate. The Bears have more talent than their 0-2 record indicates. |
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09-25-16 | Steelers -3.5 v. Eagles | 3-34 | Loss | -100 | 46 h 49 m | Show | |
The Eagles have looked surprisingly good so far. But look at whom they have beaten - the winless Browns and winless Bears. |
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09-25-16 | Browns v. Dolphins -10 | 24-30 | Loss | -100 | 139 h 26 m | Show | |
The Dolphins are 0-2 and playing their first home game. They are in a kill spot. Except for a bad first half against New England, the Dolphins' defense has looked solid especially their front. The Browns are forced to go with third-string rookie quarterback Cody Kessler because of injuries to Robert Griffin III and Josh McCown. Kessler isn't nearly ready. He looked bad during preseason - overmatched - and he's not helped by the Browns' offensive line being much inferior to the Dolphins' defensive front. The Browns also may be without their best defensive back, Joe Haden. Miami's offense should pick up having gotten more in tune with offensive guru Adam Gase's system. The Dolphins step way down in class having opened on the road against Seattle and New England. Those two teams can make any team look bad. The Browns also aren't used to playing in South Florida kind of heat. Look for their depth-shy team to wear down in the second half. |
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09-25-16 | Redskins +4.5 v. Giants | Top | 29-27 | Win | 100 | 109 h 50 m | Show |
I want desperate teams, especially taking this many points in a division matchup. It's circle-the-wagons time for the 0-2 Redskins. |
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09-25-16 | Lions v. Packers OVER 47.5 | Top | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 20 h 42 m | Show |
The Packers' offense will pick up at home where Aaron Rodgers and Co. are more comfortable. Green Bay opened with its first two games on the road. Jordy Nelson should be close to full strength now that we're in Week 3. |
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09-24-16 | Air Force v. Utah State OVER 52.5 | Top | 27-20 | Loss | -105 | 37 h 34 m | Show |
This is my total of the week. Punting can't be overlooked here. Neither team has a strong punting game. Air Force can especially exploit a short field. The Falcons lead the nation in rush yards per game and are fifth in total offense. They will be well rested, too, following a bye week. Air Force scored 48 points on Georgia State in its last game two weeks ago. By contrast, Wisconsin managed only 23 points against Georgia State and that was in Madison. Both teams have a strong history of going over the total in Mountain West Conference action. Air Force has gone above the total seven times in a row in conference, while the over has cashed nine of the last 10 times Utah State has played a Mountain West opponent. |
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09-24-16 | Bowling Green v. Memphis UNDER 68.5 | 3-77 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 20 m | Show | |
Don't look for a game like last year's 44-41 shootout won by Memphis. Bowling Green won't be able to keep pace this year. The Falcons are averaging fewer than 20 points per game. The Falcons have not received good quarterback play and haven't decided on a full-time starter. |
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09-24-16 | Oklahoma State +8 v. Baylor | Top | 24-35 | Loss | -110 | 70 h 32 m | Show |
I haven't been impressed with Baylor, which has played weak competition and didn't cover any of its three games. Facing Northwestern State, SMU and Rice is not a good non-conference buildup to stepping up against Oklahoma State. It's not stepping out to say the Bears played the weakest non-conference schedule of any Big 12 team. |
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09-24-16 | New Mexico State v. Troy -19.5 | 6-52 | Win | 100 | 127 h 19 m | Show | |
Take good early value by playing this line now as I see it climbing past three touchdowns. New Mexico State can't keep up with Troy. The Aggies got buried by a score of 52-7 last year by the Trojans - and that was in Las Cruces. |
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09-24-16 | Penn State v. Michigan OVER 56 | 10-49 | Win | 100 | 30 h 1 m | Show | |
Mighty Michigan can nearly cover this total by itself averaging 53 points per game. The Wolverines host Penn State, which is giving up nearly 35 points per game during its past two games and is extremely thin at linebacker. |
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09-24-16 | Duke v. Notre Dame -20 | 38-35 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 17 m | Show | |
People are focusing on Notre Dame having already lost twice. But Duke is way down this season with a terrible loss to Wake Forest and then Northwestern. The Blue Devils aren't 100 percent healthy on defense and lack the playmakers to keep up with a frustrated Irish squad in need of a wipeout performance. |
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09-24-16 | Pittsburgh +7 v. North Carolina | 36-37 | Win | 100 | 54 h 31 m | Show | |
Pittsburgh has triple revenge having lost the past three years to North Carolina, never by more than seven points during this span. The Panthers are 5-0 ATS when playing with triple revenge. |
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09-23-16 | USC v. Utah -3 | Top | 27-31 | Win | 100 | 47 h 1 m | Show |
The wheels are coming off USC under Clay Helton. The Trojans are 1-4 since he was named permanent coach during last season. The Trojans have bad chemistry and face a Utah squad big on revenge after losing to the Trojans, 42-24, last year. The Utes were 6-0 entering that game, ranked seventh in the country. |
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09-22-16 | Texans -113 v. Patriots | Top | 0-27 | Loss | -113 | 20 h 4 m | Show |
Much is made of legendary defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau's great record against rookie quarterbacks. Texans coach Bill O'Brien doesn't have a shabby record either in this regard. His Texans are 6-0 when facing a first-year quarterback. |
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09-19-16 | Eagles v. Bears -3 | Top | 29-14 | Loss | -125 | 154 h 58 m | Show |
This line is too short. The Bears are much superior to the Eagles. The line doesn't reflect that because it's just Week 2 and the oddsmaker is swayed by how well Eagles rookie quarterback Carson Wentz looked opening week and the Bears losing and not covering versus the Texans. |
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09-18-16 | Falcons v. Raiders UNDER 48.5 | 35-28 | Loss | -110 | 39 h 22 m | Show | |
It's easy to think offense when talking Falcons and Raiders. The Raiders nipped the Saints, 35-34, in Week 1 for a combined 69 points while the Falcons lost 31-24 to the Buccaneers for a combined 55 points. |
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09-18-16 | Titans +6 v. Lions | 16-15 | Win | 100 | 12 h 27 m | Show | |
Tennessee is a much improved team. The oddsmaker is a beat slow in realizing this based on the line. |
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09-18-16 | 49ers v. Panthers -13 | Top | 27-46 | Win | 100 | 110 h 21 m | Show |
I see this as a clear kill spot for the Panthers and I want to lock in now before the number hits 14 - which it will and then probably still go higher. Â |
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09-17-16 | Michigan State +8 v. Notre Dame | 36-28 | Win | 100 | 54 h 22 m | Show | |
I like Mark Dantonio in this underdog role. The spot is good, too, for the Spartans. |
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09-17-16 | Georgia v. Missouri UNDER 56 | Top | 28-27 | Win | 100 | 46 h 25 m | Show |
I haven't forgotten about last year's game when Georgia won, 9-6, holding the Tigers to a season-low 164 yards of total offense. |
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09-17-16 | New Mexico State v. Kentucky -20 | 42-62 | Push | 0 | 51 h 49 m | Show | |
New Mexico State is a bottom-three Sun Belt team. Kentucky is an SEC school with far better athletes. New Mexico State has never beaten an SEC team in 19 tries. |
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09-17-16 | UNLV v. Central Michigan OVER 55 | 21-44 | Win | 100 | 42 h 8 m | Show | |
Central Michigan is going to gets its points against a UNLV defense that doesn't tackle well and has only two sacks in two games. The Chippewas have an outstanding quarterback, Cooper Rush. He's a four-year starter and the active leader in passing yards with 9,952. |
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09-17-16 | Georgia State v. Wisconsin OVER 50 | 17-23 | Loss | -107 | 39 h 12 m | Show | |
Wisconsin scored 54 points on Akron last week at home and Akron is better than Georgia State. |
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09-15-16 | Jets -114 v. Bills | Top | 37-31 | Win | 100 | 29 h 22 m | Show |
Biased by the Bills playing at home on a short week, oddsmakers opened Buffalo a favorite against the Jets. |
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09-12-16 | Rams v. 49ers UNDER 44.5 | Top | 0-28 | Win | 100 | 338 h 42 m | Show |
Given the low quality of these two offenses, the oddsmaker opened this total way too high. Unfortunately the marketplace realizes this and the total has been bet down since I released the play. I still like the play but at less than 43 the unit rating goes down. |
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09-11-16 | Lions +3.5 v. Colts | 39-35 | Win | 100 | 65 h 9 m | Show | |
I'm not sure if the Colts would win this game if they were healthy - which they are not. Indy, in fact, is heavily banged-up. Out are the Colts' best defensive back, Vontae Davis, best defensive lineman, Henry Anderson, and one of their few decent offensive linemen left guard Jake Mewhort. |
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09-11-16 | Chargers +6.5 v. Chiefs | 27-33 | Win | 100 | 26 h 29 m | Show | |
The Chargers will be seeing blood here in a double revenge spot. This year the Chargers are healthy in the offensive line, improved defensively and have Ken Whisenhunt back as their offensive coordinator, a huge plus for Philip Rivers. |
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09-11-16 | Vikings -3 v. Titans | Top | 25-16 | Win | 100 | 1078 h 8 m | Show |
Minnesota is much superior to Tennessee in all facets except quarterback and that includes coaching. The Vikings have their sights set on reaching the Super Bowl. Their roster is very strong with lots of young defensive talent, Adrian Peterson to take the pressure off Shaun Hill, more wide receiving threats and an upgraded offensive line. |
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09-11-16 | Bears +4.5 v. Texans | Top | 14-23 | Loss | -110 | 1078 h 51 m | Show |
I'm skeptical of Brock Osweiler and a banged-up offensive line that is likely to be without star left tackle Duane Brown. I'm certainly not swallowing the hype on Osweiler. |
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09-10-16 | Washington State +10.5 v. Boise State | Top | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 74 h 36 m | Show |
Washington State under Mike Leach has been at its best versus strong competition and as a road 'dog, both of which are in play here. The Cougars are 7-1 ATS the past eight times versus above .500 opponents and have covered 12 of the last 15 times as an away underdog. |
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09-10-16 | Wake Forest v. Duke -4.5 | 24-14 | Loss | -115 | 42 h 45 m | Show | |
The spread doesn't reflect the vast difference between these two teams. Not to mention that Duke's David Cutcliffe is one of my favorite coaches as the Blue Devils are 24-11-1 ATS in their last 36 games. |
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09-10-16 | Akron +24 v. Wisconsin | 10-54 | Loss | -110 | 42 h 44 m | Show | |
Wisconsin is one of the great party schools and I can see the Badgers still celebrating their opening week upset victory against LSU, the Badgers' biggest win over a higher-ranked opponent since 2010 when they knocked off top-ranked Ohio State.
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09-08-16 | Panthers -3 v. Broncos | Top | 20-21 | Loss | -110 | 276 h 26 m | Show |
I see the Panthers getting their revenge on the Broncos after losing to Denver in the Super Bowl. Carolina didn't lose the Super Bowl based on talent. The Panthers out-gained the Broncos by 121 yards and had 10 more first downs than Denver. |
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09-03-16 | LSU -9.5 v. Wisconsin | Top | 14-16 | Loss | -110 | 103 h 4 m | Show |
First it's important to note this game isn't in Madison. It's in Green Bay at Lambeau Field and LSU expects to have 30,000 fans. The seating capacity is 80,735. So almost half the crowd will be for the Tigers. |
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09-03-16 | South Alabama +28 v. Mississippi State | 21-20 | Win | 100 | 111 h 52 m | Show | |
South Alabama is well-coached and came close to qualifying for a bowl for a second consecutive season. One of their victories last season came on the road as 17 1/2-point 'dogs to San Diego State. Meeting an SEC foe is huge for South Alabama. The Jaguars are going to be far more motivated for this matchup than Mississippi State, which has a home game against South Carolina next week and then plays at LSU the following week. |
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09-03-16 | Boise State v. UL-Lafayette +20 | 45-10 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 50 m | Show | |
Louisiana Lafayette is in bounce back mode. Prior to last season, the Ragin Cajuns had won nine games four consecutive seasons. |
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09-02-16 | Colorado State v. Colorado -8.5 | Top | 7-44 | Win | 100 | 35 h 8 m | Show |
Colorado has its best team since 2007 with 18 returning starters. Colorado State could have its worst team in five years. Yet because some look upon this matchup as some sort of in-state rivalry, the spread is less than double-digits. |
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09-01-16 | Oregon State v. Minnesota OVER 51 | Top | 23-30 | Win | 100 | 169 h 33 m | Show |
The Tracy Claeys era kicks off in Minnesota with this matchup. Look for the Gophers to be more spread out offensively - and be more daring - with the coaching change from Jerry Kill to Claeys.
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02-07-16 | Panthers v. Broncos +4.5 | Top | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 324 h 5 m | Show |
Five times Denver has been an underdog this season. Five times the Broncos have covered winning four of those games straight-up. |
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01-24-16 | Cardinals v. Panthers -3 | 15-49 | Win | 100 | 156 h 27 m | Show | |
Carolina is a rising power that is ready to make the next leap having made the playoffs a third straight season. This is the Panthers' best team as evidenced by 16-1 record and eight players being named to either the first or second team Pro Bowl squad. |
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01-24-16 | Cardinals v. Panthers OVER 47.5 | 15-49 | Win | 100 | 106 h 49 m | Show | |
These are the No. 1 and No. 2 scoring teams in the NFL. The offenses are healthy, but the defenses aren't. |
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01-24-16 | Patriots -3 v. Broncos | Top | 18-20 | Loss | -115 | 153 h 10 m | Show |
Both defenses are very good. The difference - and it's huge - is quarterback. Tom Brady is 38, but remains in the argument for best quarterback in the league. No quarterback threw for more touchdowns. |
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01-17-16 | Seahawks v. Panthers -115 | Top | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 53 h 49 m | Show |
Early money has been on the Seahawks. It's a mistake. The Panthers are the better team and are in a much better spot. |
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01-16-16 | Packers v. Cardinals OVER 49.5 | Top | 20-26 | Loss | -110 | 84 h 5 m | Show |
First off this isn't Minneapolis in January. The game is in the Arizona desert Saturday night with a weather forecast of about 60 degrees, no rain and very little wind. |
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01-11-16 | Alabama v. Clemson +7 | Top | 45-40 | Win | 100 | 136 h 0 m | Show |
Now that plus 7's are on the board, I'm pouncing on Clemson, unbeaten this season and winners of 17 in a row. |
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01-10-16 | Packers -105 v. Redskins | Top | 35-18 | Win | 100 | 85 h 7 m | Show |
It's a break for Green Bay to draw Washington in the first round of the playoffs. Although they are struggling offensively, the Packers defense has been solid. The Green Bay secondary will get a huge boost, too, if cornerback Sam Shields can play for the first time since suffering a concussion in Week 14. |
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01-09-16 | Chiefs -3 v. Texans | Top | 30-0 | Win | 100 | 125 h 44 m | Show |
Kansas City is the hottest team in the NFL winning 10 in a row. The Chiefs beat the Texans by a touchdown at Houston in Week 1 and nothing has changed. The Chiefs still are the superior team. The Texans are just thrilled to have reached the playoffs courtesy only of being in the worst division. Prop Bet (Taken from Westgate) |
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01-03-16 | Raiders +7.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 35 h 44 m | Show |
The Raiders have a history of playing their long-time hated division rival tough and I expect that to be the case again. Oakland has covered seven of the past nine times playing in Kansas City. The teams are 5-5 during their past 10 meetings. Only once in the last eight years have the Chiefs swept the Raiders. Unlike previous seasons, the Raiders under their first-year coach Jack Del Rio have showed resolve while playing much better on the road. They have a winning away mark and have covered in four of their last five road matchups. Not once have the Raiders lost by more than five points on the road this season. The Chiefs realize that Denver isn't going to lose to San Diego so they won't be winning the AFC South Division title. Both their game and the Broncos game kick off late so the Chiefs will be distracted doing some scoreboard watching. If the Broncos break out early against the Chargers - and they are double-digit favorites at some books - it wouldn't be surprising if Andy Reid starting resting starters in order to have them fresh for next week's playoffs. The Raiders really want to finish 8-8. All of their quotes this week point to that - and those quotes come across to me as sincere. I see the Raiders playing with a lot of energy and emotion. They are fortified with extra rest having played last Thursday. The Chiefs are banged up with their two best edge pass rushers, Justin Houston and Tamba Hali, questionable. Oakland led Kansas City by six points in the fourth quarter when they met four weeks ago. But Derek Carr had a meltdown with three turnovers and the Chiefs won by a misleading 34-20 score. Carr has proven himself this season making giant steps going from game manager to dangerous playmaker. I like him far more than Alex Smith. The Chiefs are 9-0 in their last nine games, 7-2 ATS. They also are plus 19 in turnover ratio during this time. They are more about precision and takeaways than some dominant opponent. The Raiders can definitely hang with them if not pull the outright upset. |
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01-03-16 | Jets -129 v. Bills | 17-22 | Loss | -129 | 31 h 24 m | Show | |
On paper this seems like a tough game for the Jets going against their old coach Rex Ryan. But the truth of the matter is the Bills have regressed under Ryan and the players aren't responding to him. Ryan's strength is that of a motivator not a tactician. He is far from the popular figure he was in the Jets locker room. |
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01-03-16 | Patriots v. Dolphins UNDER 47 | 10-20 | Win | 100 | 31 h 23 m | Show | |
New England has been winning with defense not offense. Only once have the Patriots scored more than 28 points during their last eight games. But defensively the Patriots rank in the top eight in fewest points, total yards and rushing yards. New England has held its last three opponents to an average of 14 points during regulation. |
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01-02-16 | West Virginia -123 v. Arizona State | Top | 43-42 | Win | 100 | 28 h 27 m | Show |
Maybe on paper this looks like an even match. But there are several factors working against Arizona State. Add them all up and West Virginia is the clear right choice. |
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01-01-16 | Tennessee -8 v. Northwestern | Top | 45-6 | Win | 100 | 20 h 6 m | Show |
Not only do I like fading a Big Ten team against an SEC foe, but Northwestern doesn't have nearly enough offense to hang within double-digits of Tennessee. |
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12-31-15 | Oklahoma v. Clemson +4 | Top | 17-37 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
Clemson has won 16 in a row and buried Oklahoma, 40-6, last season in a bowl game despite missing Deshaun Watson. So I don't comprehend this line. At worst, these two teams are even. |
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12-30-15 | Wisconsin v. USC -3 | Top | 23-21 | Loss | -120 | 326 h 27 m | Show |
USC is a team few opponents want to match up against in a bowl game. Wisconsin doesn't have the quarterback and skill level to beat the Trojans, especially when traveling to the West Coast to take on USC in its natural environs of Southern California. |
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12-28-15 | Central Michigan +4.5 v. Minnesota | Top | 14-21 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 15 m | Show |
I've always given credit to Minnesota for being a well-coached feisty team. I like the Gophers - when they are 'dogs not favorites. I'm not a fan of their quarterback, Mitch Leidner. He has just three more touchdown passes than interceptions on the season and completed less than 58 percent of his throws. Central Michigan has the far better quarterback, Cooper Rush, and the superior offense. Only 10 quarterbacks threw for more yards this season than Rush. |
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12-27-15 | Packers v. Cardinals -4 | Top | 8-38 | Win | 100 | 145 h 9 m | Show |
Given Arizona's home field advantage, the line is short here. Arizona ranks with Carolina and New England as one of the three best teams in football. Those three teams are complete teams without a weakness. The Packers are at a "B" level closer to "C" than "A" with their struggling passing attack. The Packers have been outgained on the season. |
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12-27-15 | Steelers -10 v. Ravens | 17-20 | Loss | -110 | 71 h 35 m | Show | |
Surprised to see Pittsburgh a double-digit favorite at Baltimore? Don't be. Oh, the Ravens will play hard. John Harbaugh will see to that. But the Ravens simply don't have nearly enough healthy talent to compete against elite level competition. |
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12-27-15 | Colts v. Dolphins UNDER 44 | 18-12 | Win | 100 | 71 h 34 m | Show | |
Neither team has a dominant defense that's for sure. But their offenses are worse. The Colts are averaging 12 points during their last three games. The Dolphins haven't scored more than 20 points in seven of their last eight games. |
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12-27-15 | Browns +11.5 v. Chiefs | 13-17 | Win | 100 | 71 h 33 m | Show | |
On paper it seems hard to go against the Chiefs. They've won eight in a row outscoring their foes by an average of 17 1/2 points during their win streak. |
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12-26-15 | Tulsa +14 v. Virginia Tech | Top | 52-55 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
Much is being made of this being coach Frank Beamer's final game for Virginia Tech after 29 years. Truth be told, Beamer should have retired a few years ago because the Hokies have been going downhill. They were just 6-6 this season not clinching a bowl berth until their final regular season game. They are just 16-15 during their last 31 games and 7-15-2 ATS in their last 24 non-conference games. |
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12-24-15 | Cincinnati v. San Diego State -3 | Top | 7-42 | Win | 100 | 15 h 45 m | Show |
Cincinnati hopes to rebound from a disappointing season with a win here in the Hawaii Bowl. Don't look for that to happen. The matchup, spot, coaching and intangibles all clearly point to San Diego State, which enters this matchup red-hot winning nine in a row while coming within 1 1/2 points of also being 9-0 ATS. |
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12-22-15 | Akron v. Utah State UNDER 49.5 | Top | 23-21 | Win | 100 | 195 h 58 m | Show |
Some bowl games are going to feature shootouts. Not the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl - and it's not just because this is one of the colder, more weather-vulnerable sites being in Boise, Idaho. |
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12-20-15 | Cardinals -3.5 v. Eagles | Top | 40-17 | Win | 100 | 34 h 34 m | Show |
Only once in seven games have the Cardinals lost on the road. They have the passing attack and pass defense to easily cover this number against the Eagles and win their eighth consecutive game. |
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12-20-15 | Packers -3 v. Raiders | 30-20 | Win | 100 | 97 h 36 m | Show | |
The Packers are playing very good defense and their offense is back in sync with Eddie Lacy running well - like he usually does late in the season - and Mike McCarthy calling plays again. |
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12-20-15 | Bears +5.5 v. Vikings | 17-38 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 59 m | Show | |
The Vikings are much improved under Mike Zimmer, but they are not an elite team and they are not built to cover margins of more than a field goal - especially against division foes - with a passing attack that ranks 31st. Only once has Teddy Bridgewater thrown for more than one touchdown pass in a game. |
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12-20-15 | Panthers v. Giants UNDER 48 | Top | 38-35 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 37 m | Show |
Not enough respect is being paid to Carolina's dominant defense with this high of a total. The Panthers rank in the top five in scoring defense, total yards, run defense and pass defense. They also are first in interceptions and third in sacks. |
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12-19-15 | Jets -3 v. Cowboys | Top | 19-16 | Push | 0 | 103 h 22 m | Show |
Dallas can't win with a quarterback as bad as Matt Cassel under center against a quality opponent such as the Jets. The Cowboys are 1-6 in Cassel's seven starts. All of the losses except one have been by more than three points. |
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12-13-15 | Patriots -3 v. Texans | 27-6 | Win | 100 | 135 h 21 m | Show | |
This game has been moved to Sunday night. The Texans are not prime time ready. New England certainly is. It's rare to get the Patriots off a loss. It's near impossible to ever get Bill Belichick and Tom Brady off consecutive losses. The last time that happened was 2002! |
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12-13-15 | Raiders +8.5 v. Broncos | 15-12 | Win | 100 | 83 h 58 m | Show | |
The Raiders have actually played better on the road where there is less of a winning expectation. Apparently this, perhaps subconsciously, has removed some of the pressure from their young players. |
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12-13-15 | Steelers +3 v. Bengals | 33-20 | Win | 100 | 80 h 54 m | Show | |
The Bengals took advantage of a rusty Ben Roethlisberger when they beat the Steelers, 16-10, in Week 8. Roethlisberger threw three interceptions in his first game back after missing four games because of a knee injury. |
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12-13-15 | Lions v. Rams OVER 40.5 | 14-21 | Loss | -105 | 80 h 54 m | Show | |
In today's pass-crazy, rules-favoring offense a total of less than 41 should be considered very low. This is especially so inside a fast-track dome, which this matchup takes place in. |
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12-13-15 | Redskins v. Bears UNDER 43.5 | 24-21 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 40 m | Show | |
Look for a heavy dose of running between both teams with bad weather in the forecast. Heavy rain and gusting winds are predicted. The Redskins play far worst on the road. Even though they have failed to rush for 100 yards in seven games, the Redskins figure to stay on the ground a lot. That's Chicago's plan, too, given the weather conditions and Washington's below average run defense. The weather conditions are going to make it rough on both kickers, too. |
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12-13-15 | Redskins v. Bears -3 | Top | 24-21 | Loss | -125 | 105 h 22 m | Show |
Chicago is fired-up and angry after blowing a home game to San Francisco this past Sunday. I like the Bears' coaching edge and situation advantage against Washington, which is traveling on a short week following a home loss on Monday night to division rival Dallas. |
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12-10-15 | Vikings v. Cardinals OVER 46 | 20-23 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 11 m | Show | |
Arizona ranks No. 1 in the NFL in yards per game (419.5) and points (31.8) per game. Carson Palmer is on pace to throw for 4,924 yards and 39 touchdowns. |
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12-10-15 | Vikings v. Cardinals -7.5 | Top | 20-23 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 10 m | Show |
It's difficult enough being the road team for a Thursday night game. It's especially difficult for the Vikings traveling to the desert following a mentally and physically draining 38-7 home loss to Seattle this past Sunday. |
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