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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-04-15 | Michigan State v. Duke -5.5 | Top | 61-81 | Win | 100 | 17 h 56 m | Show |
A lot has changed since Duke defeated Michigan State by 10 points back on Nov. 18 in the Champions Classic. |
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03-31-15 | Stanford -2 v. Old Dominion | 67-60 | Win | 100 | 39 h 23 m | Show | |
I want the Pac-12 team going for me here at this short point spread range against Old Dominion of Conference USA. The Monarchs joined Conference USA just two years ago making the jump from the Colonial Athletic Association. |
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03-31-15 | Stanford v. Old Dominion UNDER 138 | Top | 67-60 | Win | 100 | 39 h 20 m | Show |
This is too high of a total with Old Dominion involved even with the new shot clock rule in place. The Monarchs play at an extremely slow pace and are very strong defensively. Only seven teams in the country gave up fewer points per game than Old Dominion, which has held foes to 56.8 points a game.  |
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03-27-15 | NC State +3 v. Louisville | Top | 65-75 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 3 m | Show |
I had North Carolina State upsetting Villanova as the Wolfpack were my sleeper team to reach the Final Four - and I'm not getting off them now against a bogus Louisville team whose backcourt is way inferior to North Carolina State's minus Chris Jones. |
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03-26-15 | North Carolina v. Wisconsin UNDER 145.5 | Top | 72-79 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 29 m | Show |
The marketplace has been betting this total up partly because rugged 6-foot-9 North Carolina forward Kennedy Meeks isn't likely to play because of a knee sprain. Meeks leads the Tar Heels in blocked shots, but he also averages better than 11 points a game and is North Carolina's most accurate shooter making 56.5 percent of his field goals. |
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03-25-15 | Murray State +2 v. Old Dominion | Top | 69-72 | Loss | -120 | 15 h 58 m | Show |
Murray State won the CIT Tournament last year and has its sights set on winning the NIT this year. The Racers are tournament tested having lost only one player from last season. The Racers have covered seven of the last nine times on the road going against a foe with a winning home mark. |
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03-24-15 | Miami (FL) v. Richmond -2 | Top | 63-61 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 24 m | Show |
Richmond is playing its best basketball winning eight of its last nine games. The Spiders are 7-1-1 ATS during this span. They have won a school-record 16 home games this season. Miami has the disadvantage of not only being on the road but facing an unorthodox opponent on short preparation time having played this past Saturday. Richmond has a unique style with a matchup-zone defense and Princeton offense with lots of motion and backdoor cuts. The Hurricanes rely on their 3-point shooting. However, point guard Angel Rodriguez missed practice on Monday and isn't likely to play due to an injured wrist. Richmond ranks 29th in the country in 3-point defensive percentage. The Spiders also are 11-1-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a point spread cover. |
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03-23-15 | Colorado v. Seattle UNDER 143 | 65-72 | Win | 100 | 8 h 50 m | Show | |
The under has cashed the past seven times in Seattle's home games. It's easy to see why. The last nine games played in Seattle have averaged less than a combined 107 points per game. |
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03-23-15 | Illinois State +3.5 v. Old Dominion | Top | 49-50 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
Illinois State solidly beat Old Dominion this season. The Missouri Valley Conference, which Illinois State is a member of, was strong this season. Old Dominion could be without its best player. |
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03-22-15 | Michigan State v. Virginia -5 | Top | 60-54 | Loss | -103 | 21 h 55 m | Show |
This is not one of Tom Izzo's stronger Michigan State teams. The Spartans have flaws - lacking stars and poor free throw shooting to name two. They are going up against the top defensive team in the country. |
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03-21-15 | NC State +9.5 v. Villanova | 71-68 | Win | 100 | 13 h 16 m | Show | |
Nothing against Villanova. The Wildcats are very good. I just don't believe North Carolina State is getting enough respect here. The Wolfpack don't have any major weaknesses. They are a tough ACC team and have proven resilient coming from a late 14-point second half deficit to beat LSU in their opening round NCAA Tournament game. |
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03-21-15 | Ohio State v. Arizona UNDER 139 | 58-73 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show | |
Arizona wasn't thrilled allowing Texas Southern to score 72 points. I'm expecting a stronger Wildcats' defensive effort against Ohio State. |
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03-21-15 | UAB v. UCLA -5.5 | 75-92 | Win | 100 | 7 h 50 m | Show | |
UCLA is coming on. The Bruins' young talent has come together winning five of their last six with their only defeat coming to Arizona in the Pac-12 Conference Tournament. |
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03-20-15 | Dayton v. Providence -3 | Top | 66-53 | Loss | -109 | 33 h 27 m | Show |
Dayton can't match Providence's height, nor the talent level of the Friars' two major stars - Kris Dunn and LaDontae Henton. |
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03-20-15 | Davidson +2 v. Iowa | 52-83 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 21 m | Show | |
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03-20-15 | Cal-Irvine v. Louisville -8 | 55-57 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 1 m | Show | |
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03-19-15 | Eastern Washington +8 v. Georgetown | 74-84 | Loss | -108 | 17 h 23 m | Show | |
Georgetown is nothing special and has a recent history of playing poorly in the NCAA Tournament. |
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03-19-15 | Stephen Austin v. Utah -6.5 | 50-57 | Win | 100 | 15 h 37 m | Show | |
Don't get caught up in any hype about Stephen F. Austin being a Cinderella team. Utah isn't taking the Lumberjacks lightly after Stephen F. Austin upset VCU in the first round of the NCAA Tournament last year. |
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03-19-15 | Texas -123 v. Butler | Top | 48-56 | Loss | -123 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
This year's version of Butler isn't as good as the Brad Stevens' teams of the past. The Bulldogs are just 4-4 in their last eight games and don't match up well to Texas. |
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03-18-15 | Gardner-Webb +12 v. Colorado | Top | 78-87 | Win | 100 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
Gardner-Webb is well-coached and battled-tested. The Runnin' Bulldogs defeated Purdue on the road and defeated Clemson at a neutral site. They have covered in 11 of their last 16 road games. They also are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 non-league games. |
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03-17-15 | Central Michigan v. Louisiana Tech -6 | 79-89 | Win | 100 | 6 h 21 m | Show | |
First off, this is not an easy trip logistically for Central Michigan getting to Ruston, La., on short notice. The Chippewas don't have a senior nor did they face a tournament team on the road this season. They had a losing spread record away from home, including losing straight-up three times as road chalk. Â |
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03-17-15 | James Madison +6 v. USC Upstate | 72-73 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show | |
An off-day in their conference tournament and playing on the road. Those are two key reasons why the James Madison Dukes are underdogs to South Carolina State in an opening round College Insider Tournament game. |
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03-14-15 | Hawaii v. Cal-Irvine -2 | Top | 58-67 | Win | 100 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
UC Irvine is ready to make the NCAA Tournament for the first time. The Anteaters won the Big West last season by fell in the semifinals of the conference tournament. Lesson learned. They are primed and ready this time. They also draw Hawaii, fresh off an upset of regular-season champion UC Davis. |
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03-13-15 | Penn State v. Purdue -5 | 59-64 | Push | 0 | 3 h 1 m | Show | |
Purdue can't afford a loss here being a bubble team. So the Boilermakers won't lack for motivation. |
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03-12-15 | Cal Poly v. UC-Santa Barbara -3 | 50-54 | Win | 100 | 16 h 38 m | Show | |
Santa Barbara comes into the Big West Conference Tournament riding a lot of momentum winning its last five games. During this span, the Gauchos have defeated regular-season champion UC-Davis, UC Irvine, Hawaii and Cal Poly in their last game. |
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03-12-15 | Chicago State v. Seattle -5.5 | Top | 45-49 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 52 m | Show |
Seattle was 2-0 versus Chicago State during the regular season winning 57-31 at home and 75-67 on the road. This matchup is in Las Vegas. |
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03-11-15 | Colorado -3 v. Oregon State | Top | 78-71 | Win | 100 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
Oregon State was a nice story during the first half of the season. But the Beavers are shot now down to seven scholarship players and losing while failing to cover in six of their last seven games. |
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03-11-15 | TCU v. Kansas State -1.5 | 67-65 | Loss | -112 | 11 h 7 m | Show | |
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03-11-15 | USC v. Arizona State -6 | 67-64 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
I don't see USC, losers of 13 of its past 15, keeping this close. |
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03-10-15 | Wisconsin Green Bay v. Valparaiso -2.5 | Top | 44-54 | Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
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03-09-15 | Portland +8.5 v. BYU | 70-84 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 42 m | Show | |
Portland put aside concerns about finishing with four consecutive losses by upsetting Saint Mary's 69-52 this past Saturday in a quarterfinal game of the West Coast Conference Tournament. |
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03-09-15 | Pepperdine +14.5 v. Gonzaga | 61-79 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 44 m | Show | |
Pepperdine has the defense, determination and right situation to throw a scare into Gonzaga. |
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03-07-15 | Illinois v. Purdue UNDER 128.5 | 58-63 | Win | 100 | 4 h 2 m | Show | |
Purdue is decent offensively, but neither team plays at a fast pace and both have been playing strong defensively lately. I'm expecting an intesense defensive effort as each team is on the NCAA Tournament bubble. |
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03-07-15 | Clemson +11 v. Notre Dame | 67-81 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 36 m | Show | |
The Irish are off a huge upset win against Louisville. Clemson has more to play for than Notre Dame, which has clinched third place in the ACC. Clemson is looking to go .500 and gain better seeding for the ACC Tournament. |
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03-07-15 | Connecticut v. Temple -3 | Top | 63-75 | Win | 100 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
The defending champion Huskies don't have it this season. That was made evident after they suffered a grueling 54-53 home loss to Memphis just two days ago. Memphis won despite not having its leading scorer, Austin Nichols. |
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03-06-15 | Yale +5 v. Harvard | 62-52 | Win | 100 | 8 h 59 m | Show | |
Yale has proven worthy on the road going 10-2 versus Ivy League opponents. The Bulldogs are 8-2-1 ATS in their 11 lined road games this season. Going back ever farther, Yale is 18-6-2 ATS in its past 26 away matchups. |
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03-06-15 | Illinois-Chicago v. Oakland -7.5 | 72-69 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 1 m | Show | |
Power ratings-wise, I have Oakland as a double-digit winner here. |
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03-06-15 | Southern Illinois v. Wichita State UNDER 122.5 | Top | 45-56 | Win | 100 | 1 h 57 m | Show |
Only six teams give up fewer points per game than Wichita State. Southern Illinois gives up 62.1 points per game to rank 57th. So we're definitely talking two excellent defenses here. |
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03-06-15 | Utah v. Washington State +13 | Top | 67-59 | Win | 100 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
Utah is nothing special on the road. The Utes are just 6-5 away from home. Washington State has been keeping its last few games close as five points or less has been the winning margin during its past three games. |
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03-05-15 | VCU v. Davidson -3 | 55-82 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show | |
This is Davidson's second look at VCU and a a huge game for the Wildcats' program being Senior Night and on ESPN. The Wildcats are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 home games. |
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03-05-15 | Arkansas v. South Carolina UNDER 141.5 | 78-74 | Loss | -107 | 7 h 10 m | Show | |
South Carolina is not a good shooting team. The Gamecocks are averaging just 58.2 points during their last five games. If you discount their last game giving up 81 points to Mississippi State, the Gamecocks are averaging 54.8 points during their last 10 games. |
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03-04-15 | Oregon -2 v. Oregon State | 65-62 | Win | 100 | 14 h 27 m | Show | |
Oregon enters this huge rivalry on an 8-1 run, including four consecutive victories. The Ducks have a spot in the NCAA Tournament firmly in mind. Oregon State overachieved for the first half of the season, but its lack of talent, offense and bench has caught up. |
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03-04-15 | Colorado State -7.5 v. Nevada | Top | 78-62 | Win | 100 | 15 h 30 m | Show |
Colorado State 98, Nevada 42. That was the score of the first meeting. It was the largest margin of victory in a Mountain West Conference game. And the Rams did this without having their leading scorer and rebounder, J.J. Avila. |
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03-01-15 | Oregon State v. California -3 | Top | 56-73 | Win | 100 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
The bloom is off Oregon State and I don't see the Beavers getting it back in this road setting. |
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02-28-15 | NC State v. Boston College +5 | 63-79 | Win | 100 | 8 h 35 m | Show | |
I can easily see North Carolina State overlooking Boston College in this ACC sandwich spot. The Wolfpack are off a huge victory against arch-rival North Carolina and have a revenge game on tap against Clemson. That victory at North Carolina just may have put the Wolfpack into the NCAA Tournament and cause a letdown for this matchup against the lowly Eagles. |
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02-26-15 | Oregon State v. Stanford -8 | Top | 48-75 | Win | 100 | 16 h 44 m | Show |
The road and a weak bench are a combination that will sink the Beavers here. Aside from beating Washington State in early January, Oregon State hasn't won a Pac-12 road game going 1-6. The Beavers have lost their last four away matchups by a combined 70 points! |
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02-25-15 | Denver v. South Dakota -3.5 | Top | 66-48 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 37 m | Show |
Here's the short answer: South Dakota is playing well and Denver is terrible on the road. |
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02-24-15 | UNLV v. Utah State -2.5 | 65-83 | Win | 100 | 14 h 40 m | Show | |
Utah State is playing well winning and covering its past four games. The Aggies rank in the top 20 in 3-point shooting and hold a huge coaching edge with Stew Morrill against David Rice. |
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02-23-15 | Xavier v. St. John's -112 | 57-58 | Win | 100 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
Xavier has picked up its game. But St. John's is 4-1 in its last five games, beat the Musketeers, 78-70, on the road 10 days ago and is in a good situational spot. |
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02-21-15 | Marshall +10.5 v. UAB | Top | 54-72 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
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02-21-15 | Ball State v. Central Michigan -11.5 | 60-83 | Win | 100 | 8 h 29 m | Show | |
Central Michigan is the best team in the MAC and has strong revenge motivation. The Chippewas were hammered 83-65 by Ball State last month. The Cardinals are 2-11 in conference. That's one of their MAC victories and an embarrassement to Central Michigan. |
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02-21-15 | Austin Peay +19 v. Murray State | 54-89 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 0 m | Show | |
Murray State clearly is the class of the Ohio Valley Conference. Austin Peay sits at the bottom of the West standings. |
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02-19-15 | Utah -8 v. Oregon State | Top | 47-37 | Win | 100 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
Oregon State has overachieved all season at home. But the Beavers are no match for Utah either from a height, depth and talent standpoint. |
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02-18-15 | UCLA v. Arizona State -2.5 | 66-68 | Loss | -108 | 16 h 8 m | Show | |
UCLA is not the same team on the road. The Bruins are just 3-9 away from Pauley Pavilion. Lack of depth and experience has hurt the Bruins on the road. Arizona is the second-most experienced team in the Pac-12 and has the guard depth to take advantage of UCLA's road woes. |
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02-18-15 | Northwestern +11 v. Minnesota | Top | 72-66 | Win | 100 | 18 h 35 m | Show |
Northwestern has some much needed confidence after upsetting Iowa this past Sunday, can take advantage of Minnesota's weakness in 3-point defense and has proven itself on the road in the Big Ten. |
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02-17-15 | Michigan State -4 v. Michigan | Top | 80-67 | Win | 100 | 16 h 30 m | Show |
Yes, it's a great rivalry, but that can't hide the fact these teams are going in opposite directions. |
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02-17-15 | Wake Forest v. Notre Dame -11 | 75-88 | Win | 100 | 15 h 47 m | Show | |
Notre Dame is rested and prepared to blow out Wake Forest. The Irish last played a week ago. They had not been playing well during their last four games - losing at Pittsburgh, only beating ACC-worst Boston College by eight in their last home game on Feb. 4, getting blown out by 30 to Duke and nipping Clemson by two. |
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02-16-15 | Pittsburgh +13 v. Virginia | Top | 49-61 | Win | 100 | 13 h 7 m | Show |
The record shows Virginia to be 23-1 and Pittsburgh having lost four of its five ACC road games. The Panthers probably aren't going to get an NCAA Tournament bid - unless they beat Virginia here on the road. |
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02-15-15 | California +17.5 v. Utah | 61-76 | Win | 100 | 7 h 0 m | Show | |
Cal has turned things around winning five in a row. The Golden Bears are 5-2 in true road games. They've won their past three away games while going 6-2 ATS in their last eight road contests. Â |
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02-15-15 | Illinois +13.5 v. Wisconsin | Top | 49-68 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
This is a huge game for Illinois and the Illini will be up for the challenge remembering last year. That was when they were 13-2, ranked No. 23 and lost by 25 points at Madison. That loss derailed the Illini for the rest of the season. |
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02-14-15 | New Mexico v. Nevada +4.5 | 63-66 | Win | 100 | 16 h 31 m | Show | |
Nevada will be going all out at home off their worst defensive effort of the season and having dropped their last four at Lawlor Events Center. In three of their last four home losses, the Wolf Pack lost by a combined 10 points to UNLV, San Diego State and Fresno State. |
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02-14-15 | Oregon State -1 v. USC | Top | 55-68 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
Usually it's prudent to avoid Oregon State on the road. Play on the Beavers at home, but certainly not away. That's not the case here, though. |
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02-13-15 | Wisconsin Green Bay v. Valparaiso -3 | Top | 59-63 | Win | 100 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
Here's what you need to know about the Horizon League. Valparaiso, Green Bay and Cleveland State are all tied for first and all are undefeated in conference play at home, a combined 17-0. |
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02-12-15 | Stanford +11.5 v. Utah | Top | 59-75 | Loss | -122 | 15 h 34 m | Show |
Stanford has the offense to hang with Utah. The Cardinal rank 34th in the country in scoring at 74.9 points per game. They also rank 14th in 3-point shooting despite senior Chasson Randle missing 13 of 15 shots from beyond the arc during the last two games. |
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02-11-15 | Oregon -4 v. USC | 80-75 | Win | 100 | 17 h 35 m | Show | |
Oregon is coming on while USC has dropped eight in a row done in by inexperience and lack of offense. |
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02-10-15 | Xavier -3 v. Marquette | 64-44 | Win | 100 | 8 h 46 m | Show | |
Xavier is ranked 34th in the NCAA Daily RPI while Marquette rates 114th. The 15-9Â Musketeers clearly are the superior team probably around a ninth seed if the NCAA Tournament were being seeded right now. Marquette has a losing record. |
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02-08-15 | Washington v. Oregon State -3 | 50-64 | Win | 100 | 15 h 20 m | Show | |
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02-07-15 | VCU v. Saint Bonaventure +3 | 71-73 | Win | 100 | 8 h 34 m | Show | |
VCU managed to cover against George Mason this past Wednesday, 72-60, in a game that was closer than the final score. The Rams won that game despite missing point guard Briante Weber, lost for the season with a knee injury sustained in a 64-55 loss to Richmond on Jan. 31. |
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02-05-15 | Washington State +9 v. Oregon State | Top | 50-55 | Win | 100 | 18 h 28 m | Show |
Oregon State has been one of the biggest overachieving and surprise teams of the season. But while the Beavers are 12-0 at home, they simple lack the depth and offense to lay this many points in a Pac-12 matchup. Some regression has happened. More should follow. |
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02-04-15 | Georgia Tech +16.5 v. Duke | Top | 66-72 | Win | 100 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
Sandwich spot here for Duke. The Blue Devils are off a huge road win against Virginia and then host Notre Dame on Saturday in a huge revenge game. |
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02-03-15 | Virginia Tech v. Syracuse UNDER 130.5 | 70-72 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 28 m | Show | |
Virginia Tech has gone under in 20 of its last 28 ACC games. Look for that trend to continue here. |
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02-02-15 | Wisconsin Green Bay -5.5 v. Wright State | 71-58 | Win | 100 | 14 h 49 m | Show | |
Green Bay is coming off just its fifth loss of the season falling at Cleveland State this past Saturday. The Phoenix have won and covered in the game following their previous four defeats. They have a strong historical trend in this direction covering 68 percent of the time during the past 59 instances. |
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01-29-15 | Utah -6.5 v. UCLA | Top | 59-69 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 2 m | Show |
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01-29-15 | Colorado v. USC +2.5 | 98-94 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 33 m | Show | |
Colorado is a bad road team, has injuries and USC is playing better than it record shows. |
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01-28-15 | Oregon State v. Arizona State -5.5 | Top | 55-73 | Win | 100 | 14 h 11 m | Show |
Oregon State has been one of the biggest overachievers and surprise teams of the season. |
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01-24-15 | Kansas v. Texas -3 | Top | 75-62 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
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01-22-15 | UCLA v. Oregon State -1.5 | Top | 55-66 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
Oregon State is a perfect 10-0 SU, 8-0 ATS at home this season. I see that streak continuing against a young, depth-shy UCLA team that has failed to cover in six of its past seven away matchups. |
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01-21-15 | Indiana State +13 v. Northern Iowa | 60-66 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show | |
Northern Iowa is giving up too many points here. Indiana State has won and covered in five of its last six games. The Sycamores also lead the Missouri Valley Conference in field goal percentage. |
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01-17-15 | Michigan State +3 v. Maryland | Top | 59-75 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
Maryland has been an overachiever this season. That could catch up to the Terrapins here. Michigan State starts to kick things up as the Big Ten season gets going and the Spartans have gotten healthier. |
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01-15-15 | Oregon State v. Washington -6 | Top | 43-56 | Win | 100 | 16 h 17 m | Show |
This is a real circle-the-wagons game for Washington, which has dropped four consecutive games after opening 11-0. The Huskies are better than they have shown while Oregon State is not nearly as good as the way it looked this past Sunday in a 58-56 upset of then sixth-ranked Arizona. |
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01-14-15 | Illinois State -3.5 v. Indiana State | 70-71 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 7 m | Show | |
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01-10-15 | Dayton -8.5 v. Fordham | Top | 76-58 | Win | 100 | 5 h 43 m | Show |
Dayton is red-hot winning five in a row. The Flyers are averaging 78 points during this span. Fordham doesn't have the offense to keep up with the Flyers. The Rams are averaging 64.5 points and are ranked 11th in the Atlantic 10 in scoring and also next-to-last in field goal percentage. |
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12-27-14 | Southern Utah +19 v. UNLV | Top | 45-79 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 19 m | Show |
Huge letdown spot for UNLV after it scored probably its biggest win in 10 years upsetting third-ranked Arizona, 71-67, this past Tuesday. The Rebels aren't that good and neither is their Mountain West Conference. Throw in the holiday season, which could reduce attendance and the level of intensity, and you have a very live 'dog here. Southern Utah has all of its starters back, has played some decent competition to become battled-tested and will be treating this game much more serious and with far more motivation than the Rebels. The Thunderbirds have covered in nine of their last 13 road games. UNLV is not well-coached and you have to question its maturity level with five freshmen drawing consistent minutes. The Rebels have a far bigger game on deck when it opens Mountain West Conference play on Wednesday against Wyoming on the road. I don't see a focused effort from the Rebels to cover this big of a number. |
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12-25-14 | George Washington +5.5 v. Wichita State | Top | 60-54 | Win | 100 | 17 h 25 m | Show |
This is gut check time for both of these teams as they battle in the championship game of the Diamond Head Classic in Hawaii. Neither team is shooting well. Defense figures to be at a premium so taking the points is the way to go. Wichita State is lucky to have survived after nipping Hawaii, 80-79, in overtime two days ago. The Shockers have had three of their seven games this month decided by one point. They are 1-4 ATS in their last five games. The Shockers are playing many freshmen. They will be without backup guard Evan Wessel, who was part of the rotation averaging more than 19 minutes per game. He has an ankle injury. Ron Baker, Wichita State's top scorer, has been cold in the tournament missing 20 of 29 shots from the floor. George Washington also is having problems making shots. But the Colonials are very strong defensively ranking 26th in scoring defense. They are holding foes to 39.4 shooting from the field and 27.5 percent from 3-point range. I see them giving Wichita State problems with their physical defense having the ability to effectively constantly change up from man-to-man to zone. |
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12-17-14 | San Diego State v. Cincinnati | 62-71 | Loss | -104 | 11 h 46 m | Show | |
These are two of the stingiest defenses in the country, but San Diego State is the better team. Cincinnati has yet to play a ranked opponent. The Bearcats are inexperienced and struggling to find their offense. San Diego State ranks 14th nationally in scoring defense. The Aztecs are tournament tested having reached the Sweet 16 last season. They have had a week to prepare for this matchup and their offense is better versus man-to-man defenses, which Cincinnati plays. Cincinnati is a tough venue, but San Diego State is 42-18-2 ATS in its last 62 road contests. |
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12-16-14 | Arizona State +3 v. Marquette | Top | 71-78 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
Arizona State beat Marquette last season and Marquette is way down this season. The Golden Eagles are weak defensively, have been outrebounded by nearly nine boards a game and are down to just eight scholarship players after the departure of two bench players. Marquette also is going to be rusty having last played 10 days ago. Arizona State averages five more points per game than Marquette. The Sun Devils also have been strengthened with the addition of UNLV transfer Savon Goodman, who is now eligible. The Sun Devils have outrebounded eight of their nine opponents and made 29 more 3-pointes than their foes. Catching points with them is just a bonus. |
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12-15-14 | Elon +32.5 v. Duke | 62-75 | Win | 100 | 8 h 46 m | Show | |
Elon is guard-oriented and plays good perimeter defense. The Phoenix are feisty and can hang inside this number against Duke. This is their last opportunity to probably face a Top 25 team during the regular season. Duke is rusty and has a huge look-ahead game on deck. The Blue Devils last played on Dec. 3 when they knocked off then second-ranked Wisconsin. Duke plays defending national champion Connecticut on Thursday. Elon is No. 1 in the underrated Colonial Athletic in 3-point defense and defensive rebounding. The Phoenix nearly beat Missouri on the road and lost in overtime at Northwestern. So they have experience against major college programs. Elon rallied from 19 down at Missouri this past Thursday to pull within one point with less than 30 seconds to play before falling 78-73. The Phoenix outscored the Tigers, 46-32, in the second half proving they won't quit. I like to have a big 'dog like that going for me. |
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12-10-14 | Long Beach State v. San Diego State -10 | Top | 59-60 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
The line is lower than it should because San Diego State is coming off one of the worst shooting games of all-time in a 49-36 loss to Washington this past Sunday. The Aztecs shot 20 percent from the floor, scoring the fewest points of a major college program since 1969. But the Aztecs win by defense and rebounding, which they displayed against Washington. They outrebounded the Huskies by seven and held them under 38 percent from the floor. They just couldn't buy a basket. Remember, too, Long Beach State also lost to Washington falling, 80-70. The Aztecs have defeated the 49ers in 12 of the past 13 meetings. The 49ers have allowed an average of 85.8 points on 48.3 percent shooting from the field during their four true road games. They have yet to display the discipline and toughness required to win at this tough of a road venue especially drawing San Diego State off such a dreadful loss. |
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12-04-14 | Arkansas +7.5 v. Iowa State | Top | 77-95 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 25 m | Show |
Not only is No. 21-ranked Arkansas worthy of covering this spread, but it can win straight-up. The unbeaten Razorbacks can score, have an outstanding backcourt, shot-blocker and are physically and mentally tough. The 6-0 Razorbacks have played one game away from home - and they beat SMU, 78-72, in that contest. That was the fewest points the Razorbacks scored in a game - and they still won covering as 4-point 'dogs. They are averaging 90 points per game, only three teams average more. I really like Arkansas' backcourt of Michael Qualls and Rashad Madden. They've helped the Razorbacks lead the nation in assists per game at 20.7. Iowa State is 4-1. The Cyclones haven't been sharp, especially early, in three of their games. A slow start could doom them against the up-tempo Razorbacks. Arkansas has a good history in these spots covering nine of the last 12 times when facing an opponent with a winning record. |
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12-03-14 | UNLV v. Arizona State -5 | Top | 55-77 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
UNLV is one of the least experienced teams in the country breaking in all new starters. The Rebels are not well coached and playing in their first real road game of the season. The Rebels' challenge is even more daunting because they are at Arizona State. The Sun Devils have won 20 of their last 21 games homes, including the past 12 at Wells Fargo Arena. Among the teams the Sun Devils have defeated during this span are Utah, Colorado, Oregon, then second-ranked Arizona, Colgate this season and Stanford, a team that beat UNLV by 21 points at a neutral site less than two weeks ago. UNLV has talent. But it's too early in the season for that talent to mesh. The Rebels have broken the 60-point barrier just once in their first five games and are shooting less than 58 percent from the foul line. The Sun Devils defeated the Rebels by six points last season - at UNLV. The Rebels can rebound and block shots, but lack the Sun Devils' experience and balanced attack. The Rebels have failed to cover in seven of their last nine games. |
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04-05-14 | Kentucky v. Wisconsin +2 | Top | 74-73 | Win | 100 | 73 h 47 m | Show |
Great coaching, preparation and team basketball trumps great individual freshman talent. That's the bottom line in this Final Four matchup as to why Wisconsin will beat Kentucky.
The Badgers have always played tremendous defense under Ryan, who I consider one of the best coaches in the country. But this season Ryan actually has a talented offensive group with five versatile players, who can all hit an open 3-pointer including red-hot 7-footer Frank Kaminsky. It's not a fluke the Badgers have covered 10 of their last 11 non-league games. Kentucky is the first team to reach a Final Four starting all freshmen since Michigan's "Fab Five" did it in 1992. The Wildcats are off perhaps their three best games of the season beating Wichita State, Louisville and Michigan at the buzzer. Aside from getting past Arizona in overtime during their last game, the Badgers have been taking care off business in the NCAA Tournament in less dramatic fashion. The Badgers have yet to really play their "A" game while it's a lot to ask five starting freshmen to put together four straight magnificent efforts in the most pressure of pressure situations. Wisconsin's four other starters besides Kaminsky are capable of playing better. The Badgers still remain under the radar being the only team left to have taken out three No. 1 seeds. The Big Ten Conference also was tougher than the SEC this season. Kentucky has the tradition, name players and is a public team. But Wisconsin is the better team. It's a bonus the Badgers are catching points. |
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03-29-14 | Wisconsin v. Arizona -3 | Top | 64-63 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 18 m | Show |
Wisconsin's Bo Ryan is a great coach. But he hasn't much time in a quick turnaround to prepare the Badgers to face the best and most athletic defensive team they've played all season.
Wisconsin played a great game in burying Baylor two days ago. Arizona was able to get by San Diego State, 70-64, despite Nick Johnson, the Pac 12 Player of the Year, missing his first 10 shots. I don't see the Badgers putting together back-to-back "A" games while the Wildcats and Johnson are going to play better. It's not just Johnson as Aaron Gordon and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson have been hot from the inside. They've helped the Wildcats outscore their opponents by 11 points per game in the paint. Playing in Anaheim is a plus for the Wildcats, too. The Badgers travel well, but they are not used to being on the West Coast. Arizona has covered seven of its last nine NCAA Tournament games and is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 non-conference matchups. |
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03-28-14 | Connecticut +2 v. Iowa State | Top | 81-76 | Win | 100 | 48 h 59 m | Show |
Emotion, experience and matchups. They all heavily factor here - and these key factors all are in favor of Connecticut.
Iowa State rode a lot of emotion into beating North Carolina, 85-83, this past Sunday to earn their way into the Sweet 16 motivated by the season-ending foot injury to George Niang, who is an excellent two-way player and maybe the best all-around player on the Cyclones. North Carolina had just one day to guess how Iowa State coach Fred Hoiberg would compensate for that big injury. Connecticut has five days to prepare knowing Hoiberg went for size in replacing Niang giving 6-foot-8 Daniel Edozie his first start. Taking nothing away from Iowa State's gritty win against the Tar Heels, but North Carolina suffered an unexpected injury just two minutes into the game when 6--9 Brice Johnson left for good. Iowa State is going to have size and bench disadvantages against Connecticut. The Cyclones also aren't going to have that intangible show-the-world mentality now that the full reality of Niang's absence is felt and they won a game without him fueled by emotion. Helping Iowa State's cause against North Carolina was converting 12-of-26 3-pointers for 46 percent. The Cyclones converted 35.8 percent of their 3-pointers during the season. Iowa State is not Big Dance tournament tested like Connecticut is. The Huskies won the NCAA championship three years ago. Their star guard and leading scorer, Shabazz Napier, was part of that. He's having a big tournament and will be hard to stop, especially since Niang was one of the Cyclones' best and most versatile defenders. Iowa State also is going to have problems matching up against 6-9 DeAndre Daniels. The Huskies are used to playing in Madison Square Garden. Iowa State is not. The Huskies like to think of Madison Square Garden as their home away from home having competed annually there in the Big East Tournament until this season when they joined the American Athletic Conference. Playing in New York is like having home court advantage for the Huskies as their campus in less than a three-hour drive away and many of their fans live in the New York area. |
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03-27-14 | Baylor +3.5 v. Wisconsin | Top | 52-69 | Loss | -104 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
Both Wisconsin and Baylor come into the Sweet 16 playing well. The Badgers, though, aren't in Milwaukee anymore. They are far away from Wisconsin being in Anaheim, Calif. So their home-court edge they had in tournament victories against American and Oregon, a team they were fortunate to beat, no longer exists.
Baylor is 12-2 in its last 14 games peaking at the best possible time. The Bears have the athleticism, height, offensive balance and matchup zone type of defense that Wisconsin hasn't encountered too often. The Bears have a lot of inside length, but also can make their 3-pointers shooting nearly 40 percent from beyond the arc. They can hurt the Badgers, a not strong rebounding team, on the boards. Baylor's 7-foot-1 center Isaiah Austin is averaging nearly four blocks a game during the Bears' six postseason games this season. I do think the Badgers have a coaching edge with Bo Ryan. However, the Bears' 17-3 tournament record in March during the last six years is highly impressive. Baylor reached the Elite Eight in 2010 and 2012. The Bears won the NIT title last season. Baylor is a very tough out so catching this many points is huge. The Bears are 9-3 in games decided by five points or less or in overtime. They have covered in 11 of their last 15 non-conference games and are 6-1 ATS versus opponents with a winning percentage above .600. Baylor beat Nebraska, 74-60, in its NCAA Tournament opener and then destroyed Creighton by 30 points. Wisconsin lost by nine on the road to Nebraska in its last regular season game. |
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03-23-14 | Baylor +3.5 v. Creighton | Top | 85-55 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
Baylor is playing its best basketball winning 11 of its last 13 games. The Bears are NCAA Tournament tested, have the height and big man talent to match up against Doug McDermott and the athleticism to frustrate the Blue Jays.
These are the ingredients needed to upset Creighton. Baylor also is on its own home turf with the matchup being played in San Antonio, which is just 180 miles away from Waco. McDermott is a special talent. But the Bears have a front line that can contain him with 7-foot-1 Isaiah Austin, 6-9 Cory Jefferson and 6-6 Royce O'Neal. Austin was highly recruited and has a huge wing span. The Bears played well again in beating Nebraska 74-60 in their first-round tournament game. Baylor won that game despite its second leading scorer and top 3-point shooter, Brady Heslip, missing all six of his shots from beyond the arc. Look for Heslip to shoot much better. Heslip along with Jefferson and key contributor Gary Franklin all played for Baylor two years ago when the Bears made the Elite Eight. |
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03-22-14 | Oregon +5 v. Wisconsin | Top | 77-85 | Loss | -102 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
Wisconsin scores more this season, but its defense has slipped. The Badgers have been hurt more than most teams by the new rule that limits physical play. That's the style Bo Ryan has taught his Badgers, who lost three of their best defenders last year.
The Badgers are vulnerable against fast-paced teams, who can knock down the 3-pointer plus get to the hoops and hit their free throws. Oregon has those traits. The Ducks ranked No. 8 in scoring, 31st in 3-point percentage and sixth in free throw percentage. The Ducks have three good guards - Joseph Young, Johnathan Loyd and Jason Calliste. I don't see the Badgers slowing all three down. The Badgers are not fast enough or athletic enough to keep up with Oregon, whose run-and-shoot style produces layups and open 3-pointers. The line is a bit inflated because of Wisconsin's 75-35 first-round blowout win against American. The Badgers are 2-6 ATS the past eight times following a point spread cover. Oregon is 8-1-1 ATS the past 10 times when playing at a neutral site. |
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03-22-14 | Dayton v. Syracuse -7 | 55-53 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 28 m | Show | |
I'm not impressed with Dayton. Who have they really beaten this season? I don't consider defeating Ohio State a big achievement.
Syracuse is laying in the weeds. The Orangemen were huge for much of the year, then slipped toward the home stretch, but are now back up and dangerous. I can't see the Flyers doing much against the taller Orangemen and their vaunted 2-3 zone defense. Dayton doesn't play zone defense. This is significance because the Flyers couldn't really practice going against a zone in practice. The Orange are a top-10 defensive club holding foes to under 60 points a game. Dayton is respectable, too, defensively but gives up eight more points per game than the Orange. |
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03-21-14 | Coastal Carolina +21.5 v. Virginia | Top | 59-70 | Win | 100 | 15 h 37 m | Show |
Coastal Carolina is better than a normal 16th seed with three good guards. The Chanticleers average close to 73 points a game and are 27th in the country in defensive field goal percentage. They will get good fan support playing in Raleigh, N.C., which is 2 1/2 hours from their campus in Conway, S.C.
Virginia enters this tournament with very high expectations after winning the ACC title and conference tournament. The Cavaliers have the No. 1 defense in the land. They are a grinder on offense, though. This is going to be a very slow paced game, the kind of style that favors a big underdog such as Coastal Carolina. The over/under indicates the oddsmaker is anticipating a low-scoring game. So a correlated parlay to the 'dog and under makes sense if you're parlay-minded. Virginia has a shot to win the tournament. The Cavaliers are looking at this tournament in a long term way. They don't care how much they win this game by - they just want to win, conserve as much energy as they can and move on. The defensive-minded Cavaliers are not built to score a lot of points and cover huge margins like this. They average fewer than 66 points a game. Only once in their past 21 games have the Cavaliers beaten an opponent by more than 21 points. Coastal Carolina is playing in the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 1993. Its players obviously are very excited. The Chanticleers have nothing to lose. They can play loose. They will do all they can to not get embarrassed, nor is Virginia looking to embarrass this opponent. The Chanticleers are coached by Cliff Ellis, who knows the ACC having coaching Clemson for 10 years during the 1980s and '90s. |
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03-20-14 | North Dakota State v. Oklahoma -3.5 | Top | 80-75 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
This is a case of fading an untested team at a short price. Oklahoma is in the bargain range with tremendous line value.
The Big 12 very well may have been the best conference in the country. North Dakota State barely got past Indiana-Purdue-Fort Wayne in the Summit League Tournament title game. The best team the Bisons beat all season was Notre Dame, which had the third-worst record in the ACC. Both teams can score, but I trust the Sooners' scorers more. They have four players who average double figures and are excellent free throw shooters. Oklahoma is 8-1 ATS the past nine times versus opponents with a winning percentage above .600 while North Dakota State is 5-13 ATS when it has met a foe with a winning percentage above .600. |
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03-19-14 | Iowa v. Tennessee +2.5 | Top | 65-78 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
Current form means a lot here in this opening NCAA Tournament game. Tennessee has won five of its last six games. The Volunteers' only loss during this span was against top-ranked Florida - and they nearly upset the Gators.
Contrast this with Iowa. The Hawkeyes would be one of the worst teams in the Big 10 if you counted just the past 3 1/2 weeks. Iowa is 1-6 in its last seven games, 0-7 ATS. The Hawkeyes' defense is down. Their rebounding is off and they're struggling to make shots. Iowa did outrebound Northwestern during its last game this past Thursday in the Big Ten Conference Tournament - and still lost by five as a 13-point favorite. Tennessee ranks 18th in the nation in offensive rebounding. The Vols are far more athletic than Northwestern. Tennessee is playing top-notch defense, too, down the stretch giving up an average of only 47.4 points per game during its last five contests. On the season, the Vols hold foes to an average of just 40.8 percent shooting from the floor. This was a down year for the SEC. But the Big Ten really levels off after Michigan State, Michigan and Wisconsin. The Hawkeyes don't have a good track record in the NCAA either having last won a tournament game in 2001. It's been a distracting week for Iowa coach Fran McCaffery because his 13-year-old son underwent surgery to remove a tumor on his thyroid. |
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