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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-13-17 | Baylor -2.5 v. Texas Tech | Top | 78-84 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 17 m | Show |
If it weren't for beating last place Oklahoma, Texas Tech would be 0-6 in its last six Big 12 Conference games. The Red Raiders did get up in a big way to play Kansas at home this past Saturday losing 80-79 at the wire.  I don't see the Red Raiders being able to come back that strong just two days later against sixth-ranked Baylor.  The Bears are a school-best 22-3 through 25 games and have one of the top players in the nation, Johnathan Motley.  In short turnarounds such as this for both teams, talent usually trumps.  Baylor has been a huge money-maker on the road, too, gong 15-5-1 ATS in its last 21 away contests.  The Bears are 4-2 in conference road games with the losses coming to Kansas and West Virginia, the two teams along with themselves that are vying for the Big 12 title. It's tough to beat Texas Tech in Lubbock, but the Red Raiders are not in the class of Kansas and West Virginia.Â
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02-12-17 | Nevada +4 v. San Diego State | Top | 56-70 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
These teams met early last month in Reno and Nevada won, 72-69, as two-point favorites. A key to the Wolf Pack's victory was outrebounding the Aztecs by 12 boards.  Nevada is the better rebounding team, leads the Mountain West in 3-point defense and outscores San Diego State by an average of 10 points a game. The Wolf Pack have the matchup edges, motivation and history to beat the Aztecs straight-up again.  San Diego State still plays outstanding defense. However, the Aztecs have lost some of their home mystique with losses to New Mexico and Colorado State since the calendar turned 2017. The Aztecs are a bad rebounding team - ranking last in the Mountain West in defensive rebounding - and have trouble scoring ranking last in the conference in scoring and free throws attempted per game. The Aztecs rely on defense and 3-point shooting. They rank 284th, though, in 3-point accuracy and Nevada has a strong perimeter defense.  The Wolf Pack are in a dogfight with Boise State and Colorado State to win the Mountain West. The big question is can the Wolf Pack win on the road? They had a bad loss to Utah State, falling 74-57 on Feb. 1, in their last road game. Prior to that game, however, the Wolf Pack posted three consecutive road victories defeating New Mexico, Wyoming and Boise State. The wins against Wyoming and Boise State were in blowout fashion. My feeling is Nevada learned from that road loss to Utah State and should produce a high level game here. Nevada has been a huge money-maker in this spread range covering 13 of the last 16 times when getting up to 6 1/2 points. The Wolf Pack also is 18-6-2 ATS the last 26 times facing an above .500 foes.Â
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02-11-17 | North Texas v. Florida International -4.5 | Top | 71-90 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
This is a stop-the-pain home game for Florida International, losers of four in a row. The timing is ripe for the Golden Panthers to do just that. Florida International catches North Texas fat and happy after the Mean Green posted a 70-64 road upset win against Florida Atlantic this past Thursday. That victory halted an 11-game losing streak for the Mean Green.  North Texas, though, is horrible on the road going 5-16-1 ATS during its last 22 away contests and has failed to cover the past five times following a rare victory. North Texas isn't used to winning, far less so on the road.  The Golden Panthers won't lack for motivation. They can just remember last year's game when they blew a 12-point lead with around six minutes left in a 77-75 road loss to the Mean Green during their previous meeting. Stephen Nover Saturday Free Pick Northern Illinois plus 4 1/2 at Western Michigan The combination of getting the better team with the superior defense and a bunch of points puts me on Northern Illinois.  Northern Illinois is four games above .500 while Western Michigan is 8-15. According to the latest Ken Pomeroy's ratings, Northern Illinois ranks 194th, while Western Michigan is 205th.  The Huskies have the 70th stingiest defense in the country giving up 68.2 points per game. That number actually comes down to 65.6 when they are on the road. By contrast, Western Michigan allows 78.6 points a game.  The Broncos are off a 72-55 win against Miami of Ohio in their last game this past Tuesday. They have failed to cover 15 of the past 21 times following a victory.  Northern Illinois is 6-1-1 ATS the past eight times playing Western Michigan. The Huskies have covered three of their past four road games, all as either an underdog or pick. |
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02-07-17 | Iowa State v. Texas +3.5 | Top | 65-67 | Win | 100 | 19 h 29 m | Show |
I'm playing the letdown card strong fading Iowa State off its monster double-digit upset road overtime win against second-ranked Kansas this past Saturday. The Cyclones pulled the upset by coming from 15 points down in ending the Jayhawks' 51-game home win streak while likely securing their place in the Big Dance with that victory. Iowa State is 2-5 ATS following a spread cover and has failed to cover in seven of its last eight games in Austin.  Texas has the talent to beat Iowa State. The youthful Longhorns have begun to play better going 2-2 following five straight losses. Freshman big man Jarrett Allen has come on to average 16 points and 10.5 rebounds during his last 10 games.  The Longhorns are tough at home - owning Big 12 victories against Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Texas Tech not to mention losing by only two to then ninth-ranked West Virginia - and have also covered seven of the last eight times as underdogs.  Texas has also covered 71 percent of its last 24 Big 12 games.Â
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02-04-17 | UC-Irvine -3 v. Long Beach State | Top | 63-72 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 17 m | Show |
Cal Irvine is the superior team and is in stop-the-pain mode after losing two in a row. The Anteaters had won eight in a row before their losing streak.  Long Beach State is 4-4 in the Big West Conference, two games behind Cal Irvine and UC Davis for the lead. But the 49ers are overmatched here. They are 7-15 ATS, including 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games. They also are 1-7 ATS the past eight times when going against an above .500 foe.Â
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02-02-17 | Santa Clara -5 v. Portland | Top | 60-45 | Win | 100 | 16 h 17 m | Show |
Santa Clara is a full tier behind Gonzaga and St. Mary's in the West Coast Conference hierarchy. But the Broncos are far better than Portland. That was proven in the first meeting between the teams, which Santa Clara won, 70-42, on Jan. 5.  Portland was in free fall dropping four in a row - and that was before their leading scorer and star guard, Alec Wintering, was lost for the season with a torn ACL. That happened less than two weeks ago and the Pilots haven't recovered losing by 16 points to San Diego at home this past Saturday. Portland lost its previous game to Pepperdine, 78-60, as a five-point road 'dog.  Wintering was averaging 19.5 points and 5.6 assists per game. Without Wintering, the Pilots aren't just one of the worst teams in the WCC but in the entire country losers of eight in a row.Â
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01-31-17 | Dayton -10.5 v. Fordham | Top | 75-66 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 58 m | Show |
Dayton is vastly better than Fordham and should have plenty of motivation following a 73-69 road loss to VCU in its last game this past Friday. That loss snapped a three-game Dayton win streak. The Flyers have held nine of their last 10 opponents to 67 points or fewer. Fordham averages just 64.7 points in Atlantic 10 play.  Fordham has a day less rest having lost 84-66 at home to Davidson this past Saturday. The Rams rank 217th in Ken Pomeroy's rankings, while Dayton rates 36th.  The Flyers have covered the past six times versus Fordham, including winning 64-50 during the lone meeting last season. Fordham is 3-9-1 ATS in its last 13 games, failing to cover in four of its past five home contests.Â
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01-30-17 | Western Carolina v. Mercer -13 | Top | 47-62 | Win | 100 | 12 h 0 m | Show |
The teams just met on Jan. 21 at Western Carolina and Mercer won, 70-50. Mercer accomplished the 20-point road victory despite making 11 of 19 free throws compared to the Catamounts sinking 16 of 21 free throws. The timing is right for Mercer to bury Western Carolina again. Mercer is playing well covering seven of its last eight games. Western Carolina is off a surprising 68-62 home win against Wofford this past Saturday. The Catamounts were 9 1/2-point underdogs. They have not won or covered two consecutive games all season. Western Carolina also has failed to cover in eight of its last 10 road contests.Â
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01-29-17 | Virginia v. Villanova -5 | Top | 59-61 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 58 m | Show |
Look for Villanova to come back strong at home. The defending national champion Wildcats have had four full days to stew about blowing a 17-point lead in a road loss to Marquette this past Tuesday. From that loss, the Wildcats should stress more defensive consistency and a better mix on offense. Virginia is great again defensively leading the nation in fewest points per game. But the Cavaliers lack Villanova's scoring and shoot far worse from the free throw line. Villanova ranks third in the country in free throw percentage at 79 percent. Playing at home, I would take Villanova's offense over Virginia's defense especially coming off a surprising loss.   Villanova's prideful seniors - Josh Hart, Kris Jenkins and Darryl Reynolds - have never lost consecutive games. The Wildcats usually respond well to a defeat covering eight of the last nine times in those instances.Â
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01-25-17 | UCLA -5.5 v. USC | Top | 76-84 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 37 m | Show |
UCLA has the talent to blow out just about any team, including USC. The Bruins certainly have the motivation coming off an 11-point loss to Arizona and having triple revenge against the Trojans from last season.  The Bruins should redeem themselves after surrendering 96 points to the Wildcats and having their defense called soft. USC is off an 82-79 win versus Arizona State. It has been eight games since the Trojans last won two in a row. They are 0-8 ATS following a victory and 1-7 ATS in their past eight home contests.Â
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01-21-17 | UC-Irvine -4 v. CS-Northridge | Top | 105-73 | Win | 100 | 19 h 18 m | Show |
Cal Irvine easily is the best team in the Big West Conference right now. Now while this proclamation may bring yawns with a who cares attitude, the conference is on the betting board and this matchup provides excellent line value. I like the Anteaters to win by double-digits here. They are 6-0 ATS the past six times in a spread range of laying up to 6 1/2 points.  Northridge is four games under .500 on the season. The Matadors are 6-9 ATS on the season, 2-6 ATS when playing at home. They just lost by three at Hawaii on Wednesday. So this is a short turnaround coming back from the islands. The Matadors have failed to cover the past nine times following a loss.  Irvine, by contrast, buried Hawaii by 28 points two weeks ago. Hawaii has stepped up its game since then and Irvine did play that game at home, but a 28-point win compared to a three-point loss still is a monster contrast. Note, too, the Anteaters also are 7-2 ATS the past nine times playing a foe that has a below .400 winning percentage.  The Anteaters have a well-balanced team. They've won seven in a row, unbeaten in league play. They are playing their best ball. The same certainly can't be said for Northridge. |
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01-17-17 | San Diego State -5 v. UNLV | Top | 64-51 | Win | 100 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
San Diego State is healthy and too strong defensively for a down UNLV team. |
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01-12-17 | UC-Irvine -6 v. UC-Santa Barbara | Top | 66-62 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 23 m | Show |
Cal Davis and UC Irvine are the two best teams in the Big West Conference. Santa Barbara is tied for the worst record in the league at 2-11. The Gauchos lost 73-47 to Cal Davis in their last game. Now they draw Irvine. I'm not looking for a 26-point Anteater victory, but I do think they will win easily by double-digits. Cal Irvine is playing well riding a four-game win streak. The Anteaters rank 22nd in defensive field goal percentage. Santa Barbara is a very poor shooting team, which extends to free throws. The Anteaters' are 65-3 when holding opponents to 60 points or less, including 7-1 this season. Irvine holds major edges here in defense, rebounding and bench strength.  Santa Barbara has failed to cover in nine of its last 10 games. Irvine is 17-5 ATS versus sub .500 opponents and 9-2 ATS as a road favorite. Some of this can be explained by their strong bench, which has outscored opponent's reserves by 12 points a game. That margin increases to nearly 15 a game when you factor just the last nine games.   The Anteaters beat the Gauchos, 61-52, at Santa Barbara last January, but lost the rematch at home last Jan. 30. So the Anteaters should be focused.Â
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12-22-16 | Texas-Arlington v. Loyola Marymount UNDER 141.5 | Top | 80-77 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
Texas Arlington and Loyola-Marymount are a combined 12-1-1 to the under this season. Texas-Arlington has the No. 1 3-point defense in the country. The under has cashed in 21 of the Mavericks' last 28 road games. Texas-Arlington showed how strong its defense is holding Saint Mary's to just 51 points two games ago. The Mavericks haven't surrendered more than 51 points during each of their last three games. Marymount isn't a good long range shooting team and the Lions also don't draw many fouls. Both teams turn the ball over a lot. The pace isn't going to be fast either for this match. The Mavericks are going to be hard-pressed to perform well at this small venue where Marymount held Connecticut to 65 points in a 65-62 loss earlier this season. |
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12-14-16 | UC-Irvine v. Nevada -11 | Top | 69-76 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 6 m | Show |
Nevada Reno has way too much offense and talent for Irvine, which has height and can play defense but is far too limited offensively. The Wolf Pack are averaging 19 more points per game than Irvine.  I like Reno coach Eric Musselman. He's proved especially strong in a favorite's role as the Wolf Pack are 14-3-2 ATS the past 19 times they've been chalk. They also are 14-3-1 ATS during their last 18 home games.  Cal Irvine has 23 more turnovers than assists. The Anteaters are shooting 41.6 percent from the field despite a tall front line and hit only 31.3 percent of their 3-pointers. Reno does a great job of not fouling. Irvine averages less than 17 free throw attempts per game.  Irvine has no backdoor ability to cover if it should fall far behind, which I expect.  This shapes up as a blowout win for the Wolf Pack. The opening number is short.Â
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12-10-16 | Michigan +9 v. UCLA | Top | 84-102 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
UCLA has to deal not only with getting back down from the high of knocking off then-No. 1 Kentucky, but a rust factor, too. The Bruins haven't played since beating the Wildcats a week ago.  Michigan is a top-10 defensive club. The Wolverines have proven capable beating Texas.  The Bruins are in heady territory. Their youth and maturity could catch up to them here against this well-coached, tough Big Ten team. So I'll take this many points. Â
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12-08-16 | Texas-Arlington v. St. Mary's UNDER 140 | Top | 65-51 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
The pace is going to be slow here. St. Mary's milks the shot clock and Texas-Arlington is playing less up-tempo this season. The Mavericks have gone under in their last seven games and gone below the total in 19 of their past 26 road matchups. Arlington plays tough perimeter defense so St. Mary's is likely going to go deep into the shot clock before shooting. The Mavericks aren't a good free throw shooting team and St. Mary's doesn't draw many fouls. So look for defense to rule here.Â
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12-01-16 | CS Sacramento v. Pacific -10 | Top | 58-74 | Win | 100 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
Sacramento State plays in the Big Sky, a very weak conference. The Hornets haven't covered a game all season. They're likely to get blown out here against a superior Pacific team that is looking to make a strong statement at home under first year head coach Damon Stoudamire. |
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11-24-16 | Quinnipiac v. Gonzaga OVER 154.5 | Top | 62-82 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 15 m | Show |
Gonzaga should have no problem breaking triple digits here. The Bulldogs are averaging more than 100 points this season and have tremendous front line scoring with 7-footers Przemek Karnowski and Zach Collins. The Bulldogs have scoring depth, too. Quinnipiac gives up an average of 90 points a game. |
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11-17-16 | Connecticut -7 v. Loyola Marymount | Top | 65-62 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
Could Connecticut actually open the season 0-3? Nope. I see a focused Huskies squad shooting much better and having no problem with Loyola Marymount, an average at best team from the West Coast Conference. Â |
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11-16-16 | San Francisco v. UC-Santa Barbara UNDER 143 | Top | 75-63 | Win | 100 | 7 h 60 m | Show |
There were 129 combined points when the teams met last November with Santa Barbara winning as a slight road 'dog. Look for a similar low-scoring game this time around. |
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11-15-16 | CS Bakersfield +17.5 v. Arizona | Top | 66-78 | Win | 100 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
Cal State Bakersfield is underrated and getting too many points just based on playing a Pac-12 opponent. The Roadrunners are a tough, physical defensive team. They won the WAC Tournament and made the NCAA Tournament last year giving Oklahoma problems in the first round. |
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11-12-16 | Toledo v. St. Joe's UNDER 153 | Top | 76-77 | Push | 0 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
Saint Joseph's lost 64 percent of its scoring from a year ago, including superstar DeAndre Bembry. Neither team played a fast tempo last season and that's likely to hold true especially for Saint Joseph, which also lost Aaron Brown and Isaiah Miles. |
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04-02-16 | Villanova v. Oklahoma OVER 143.5 | Top | 95-51 | Win | 100 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
The total on this Final Four matchup opened 150. Now look where it is at. Is the oddsmaker that far off? He shouldn't be. Not in a game of this magnitude. There are certainly key factors why the over is the right play besides what has become excellent line value now. |
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03-29-16 | Oakland -6.5 v. E Tennessee State | Top | 104-81 | Win | 100 | 13 h 56 m | Show |
I have no doubt Oakland is superior to East Tennessee State. My hesitation about backing Oakland in this Vegas 16 Tournament - the most minor of all the post-season  tournaments - is how motivated will the Golden Grizzlies be after having their sights set on reaching the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2011. |
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03-28-16 | East Tennessee State v. Louisiana Tech OVER 155 | Top | 88-83 | Win | 100 | 16 h 41 m | Show |
East Tennessee State and Louisiana Tech are two of the highest-scoring teams in the nation ranking 36th and 58th, respectively. They should light up the scoreboard playing at a neutral site in Las Vegas in the inaugural Vegas 16 Tournament. |
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03-26-16 | Oklahoma v. Oregon -120 | Top | 80-68 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
On paper, Oregon doesn't appear to be an elite team. Certainly the Ducks don't have a superstar like Oklahoma has with Buddy Hield. But this is a bad matchup for the Sooners. |
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03-25-16 | Gonzaga -4 v. Syracuse | Top | 60-63 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 4 m | Show |
These two were long shots entering the NCAA Tournament, but here they are in the Sweet 16. I believe Gonzaga is for real while Syracuse is a tier lower than the Bulldogs catching several breaks to reach this point. |
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03-24-16 | Texas A&M v. Oklahoma -135 | Top | 63-77 | Win | 100 | 64 h 27 m | Show |
When Texas A&M takes the court against Oklahoma in this Sweet 16 NCAA Tournament matchup, the Aggies still might be hearing about pulling off the largest final-minute comeback in college basketball history. Their 92-88 double overtime win against Northern Iowa - coming from 12 points down with 34 seconds left in regulation - is one for the ages. |
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03-20-16 | Northern Iowa +6.5 v. Texas A&M | Top | 88-92 | Win | 100 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
Northern Iowa has a lot of things you look for in an underdog at this point of the season: The Panthers have NCAA Tournament experience, are well-coached, are hot with 13 wins in their last 14 games (12-1-1 ATS), rank 12th in the country defensively, rank 17th in free throw percentage and can make 3-pointers. They also have beaten a number of top teams, including North Carolina, Iowa State, Stephen F. Austin and Wichita State twice. Yet the Panthers are downgraded because they are a mid-major and because of their miraculous 75-72 first-round upset victory against Texas when Paul Jesperson hit a buzz-beater from beyond half court. Perhaps the Panthers don't have the fancy talent that some of the major conference teams have. But there are intangibles at work here. Ben Jacobson has been Northern Iowa's coach the past 10 seasons - and he's not going anywhere. He has honed an effective, close-knit system with excellent team work and chemistry. The Panthers are not about individuals. They fit well into a team structure. This might sound like a cliche, but teamwork can't be underestimated with an underdog at this late point of the season. Texas A&M had not been to the NCAA Tournament since 2011 until this season. The Aggies were lucky to meet Green Bay in the first round, a team that doesn't play good defense at this high level. Northern Iowa holds foes to 63.2 points a game. The Panthers are 8-0-1 ATS the past nine times playing opponents with a winning percentage above .600. |
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03-18-16 | Pittsburgh v. Wisconsin -130 | Top | 43-47 | Win | 100 | 34 h 37 m | Show |
I like taking a hot team that is being underrated because of a bad conference tournament loss. That team is Wisconsin, winners of 11 of their last 14 games but off a bad Big Ten Tournament loss to Nebraska. |
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03-17-16 | Providence -128 v. USC | Top | 70-69 | Win | 100 | 32 h 57 m | Show |
I'm not sure how USC managed to sneak into the NCAA Tournament. But the Trojans are here - and they should be faded in this first-round matchup against Providence. |
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03-17-16 | Yale v. Baylor -5 | Top | 79-75 | Loss | -105 | 30 h 3 m | Show |
The monster difference between the Big 12 - arguably the best conference in the nation - and the Ivy League doesn't merit this short of a spread. |
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03-15-16 | IUPU Ft Wayne +11.5 v. San Diego State | Top | 55-79 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 18 m | Show |
Indiana University-Purdue University Fort Wayne is well rested and excited about making its first NIT appearance since elevating to Division I status 16 years ago. |
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03-11-16 | Colorado State v. Fresno State -3 | Top | 56-64 | Win | 100 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
Both teams have strong offenses, but Fresno State is better defensively and is the fresher team. The Bulldogs also are peaking at the right time winning nine of their past 10, including their last seven games. |
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03-10-16 | UNLV v. Fresno State -125 | Top | 82-95 | Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
I liked Fresno State to roll over UNLV before Wednesday's first-round of the Mountain West Conference Tournament - and I like the Bulldogs even more now. |
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03-08-16 | Pennsylvania +16 v. Princeton | Top | 71-72 | Win | 100 | 15 h 59 m | Show |
Penn has depth and is much improved from last season. The Quakers nearly upset Princeton as seven-point home 'dogs losing 73-71 in overtime back in January. The Quakers blew an 11-point lead with four minutes left. |
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03-06-16 | Wisconsin +6 v. Purdue | Top | 80-91 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
Yes, Purdue is tough at home. But the oddsmaker isn't giving enough respect to Wisconsin with a line this high. The Badgers have won 11 of their last 12 games - losing only to Michigan State during this span - while going 10-2 ATS. |
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03-01-16 | Kentucky -3.5 v. Florida | Top | 88-79 | Win | 100 | 7 h 13 m | Show |
Kentucky has much to prove on the road. I see the Wildcats bouncing back following a 12-point road loss to Vanderbilt by solidly defeating fading Florida, which has dropped three in a row and is 0-4 in its last four home games. |
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02-28-16 | Colorado State +3.5 v. Nevada | Top | 80-87 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
Colorado State defeated Nevada Reno, 76-67, as three-point home favorites three weeks ago. Nevada Reno's star point guard Marquez Coleman played 33 minutes in that game. Colorado State, which often lives and dies with the 3-pointer, missed 24 of 32 from 3-point range in that game. The Rams did get 26 more rebounds than the Wolf Pack. |
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02-27-16 | Montana +2.5 v. Weber State | Top | 54-60 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 35 m | Show |
Montana is in position to grab its first regular-season win at Weber State since 2004. Weber State heavily relies on guard Jeremy Senglin and big man Joel Bolomboy. The duo has  accounted for 46 percent of the Wildcats' scoring. However, the 6-foot-9 inch Bolomboy suffered a knee injury in the Wildcats' last game and the senior power forward is not expected to play. |
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02-24-16 | Tennessee v. South Carolina -8.5 | Top | 58-84 | Win | 100 | 20 h 19 m | Show |
 South Carolina is a dominant 14-1 at home this season. The Gamecocks have covered 14 of their last 17 at home, including going 9-3 ATS this season. |
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02-23-16 | UNLV v. Boise State -6.5 | Top | 69-81 | Win | 100 | 19 h 39 m | Show |
First off, UNLV isn't very good on the road. The Rebels are 2-8 in true away contests this season. They've failed to cover in their last four road matchups. |
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02-20-16 | Hawaii v. UC-Irvine -2.5 | Top | 75-71 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 52 m | Show |
This is a battle for first place in the Big West Conference and one of Irvine's biggest home games ever. A rare sellout crowd is expected. |
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02-17-16 | Houston -5 v. Tulane | Top | 82-69 | Win | 100 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
Tulane is coming off a 94-87 overtime home win against Memphis as seven-point 'dogs. Does this suddenly make the Green Wave a good team? No. Tulane is six games under .500 on the season and just 3-10 in the Atlantic Athletic Conference despite that victory. The Green Wave are 1-6-1 ATS the past eight times they have gone against an opponent with a winning record. |
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02-16-16 | Ball State v. Miami (OH) +2.5 | Top | 73-56 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 12 m | Show |
Ball State is favored on the road for the first time since its opening away matchup back on Nov. 13 against Bradley, who beat the Cardinals, 54-53. The Red Hawks not only have revenge motivation but focus shouldn't be a problem either after they were embarrassed, 93-49, on the road against Toledo this past Saturday. Prior to that the Red Hawks had won and covered three of four, including the past two two. |
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02-15-16 | Oakland -1 v. Wright State | Top | 89-73 | Win | 100 | 15 h 52 m | Show |
At stake here is sole possession of second place in the Horizon League, which means a lot because the top two seeds in this conference tournament draw double byes. |
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02-14-16 | Bradley +18.5 v. Illinois State | Top | 60-75 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
Illinois State is coming off three wins and covers, the last two as double-digit 'dog winners against MIssouri Valley Conference leader Wichita State at home - Â coming from 18 points down to do it - and winning at Evansville this past Thursday. The victory against Evansville moved Illinois State into second place in the league. Now the Redbirds get a well deserved home rest stop against Bradley, which is second-to-last in the conference. |
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02-13-16 | CS-Northridge +11 v. UC-Irvine | Top | 84-93 | Win | 100 | 13 h 7 m | Show |
Cal-Northridge can't match Cal-Irvine's defense, but the Matadors average more points, shoot better from the floor and have a far better free throw percentage than Irvine. |
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02-08-16 | Notre Dame v. Clemson -120 | Top | 89-83 | Loss | -120 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
The ACC is the best basketball conference in the country again. It's also a conference where teams fiercely protect their home-court and take advantage of great situations. That brings Clemson clearly into focus in this matchup. |
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02-04-16 | Texas State +8 v. Georgia State | Top | 56-59 | Win | 100 | 15 h 32 m | Show |
This is more than just a case of taking points in a matchup of two bad Sun Belt Conference teams. Both schools ranked in the top 25 in defense, but lack height and struggle to score while playing at a slow pace. |
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02-03-16 | Kansas State v. Kansas UNDER 144 | Top | 59-77 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
I see this game going under the total mainly due to Kansas State. The Wildcats are strong enough size-wise and defensively to stay within this double-digit spread in this heated in-state rivalry matchup. However, they lack scoring especially with point guard Kamau Stokes unlikely to play after suffering a knee injury this past Saturday. |
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02-02-16 | UNLV v. New Mexico OVER 147 | Top | 83-87 | Win | 100 | 8 h 20 m | Show |
The over has cashed four of the last five times these teams have met, including in the first meeting this season when UNLV won 86-74. That went over the total by 14 points despite neither teams shooting better than 40 percent from the floor and missing 30 of 43 3-point shots. |
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01-30-16 | New Mexico v. Boise State -5.5 | Top | 88-83 | Loss | -118 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
Boise State is 10-1 at home. New Mexico is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 road contests, 2-8 ATS when playing against a home opponent with a winning record. |
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01-28-16 | VMI v. Mercer -13.5 | Top | 58-73 | Win | 100 | 6 h 8 m | Show |
Mercer is frustrated after two straight road overtime losses. The Bears can take advantage of their angry mood being in a kill spot at home against overmatched VMI, which is 6-12 SU and 2-9 ATS. The Keydets have failed to cover during their last seven road games and nine of their past 10 away matchups. VMI's last four road losses have been by an average of 25.5 points. Â |
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01-23-16 | Utah State v. San Diego State -7 | Top | 55-70 | Win | 100 | 6 h 8 m | Show |
San Diego State has won and covered the past five in this series. Look for that string to continue. The Aztecs have won by an average of 17.5 points the past two times hosting Utah State - and that was when the Aggies had Stew Morrill coaching them. |
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01-21-16 | Gonzaga +3 v. St. Mary's | Top | 67-70 | Push | 0 | 20 h 26 m | Show |
Picked to finish fourth in the West Coast Conference, Saint Mary's has been one of the surprise teams going 15-2 despite losing its five senior starters and 80 percent of its scoring and rebounding from last season's 21-10 team. |
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01-12-16 | New Mexico +6 v. UNLV | Top | 74-86 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 20 m | Show |
A disappointing 0-3 start in Mountain West Conference action has caused a lot of upheaval at UNLV. The school fired head coach David Rice two days ago. This will be he Rebels' first game under interim coach Todd Simon, who is not expected to get the permanent job. |
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01-08-16 | Valparaiso v. Oakland +2.5 | Top | 84-67 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
Valparaiso and Oakland were picked to be the top two teams in the Horizon League this season in the preseason poll. Now they get together in this nationally televised matchup on ESPN2. |
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01-07-16 | Michigan v. Purdue -7.5 | Top | 70-87 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
I'm fine with Purdue even if Michigan's senior star guard Caris LaVert is going to play. He's the Wolverines' best player leading them in scoring, rebounding and assists. He injured his left leg two games ago and missed Michigan's last game this past Saturday. The Wolverines were able to overcome his absence by blowing out Penn State at home. |
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01-06-16 | Duke v. Wake Forest +8 | Top | 91-75 | Loss | -103 | 5 h 34 m | Show |
Wake Forest certainly can hang in against Duke given its depth and being battle tested. Duke's depth is down with Amile Jefferson out. The Blue Devils are down to about a six-man rotation while Wake Forest can go 11 deep. |
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01-01-16 | Colorado +8 v. California | Top | 65-79 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 24 m | Show |
Nothing against California. I have great respect for the talent on the Golden Bears. But Colorado is very good, too. The Buffaloes are 11-2 and are as good as many envisioned two seasons ago. The respect, lost last season, hasn't caught to them yet providing value for this Pac-12 opener. |
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12-29-15 | Connecticut v. Texas OVER 140 | Top | 71-66 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
The total is too low considering that each team lost their star big men. Connecticut is minus Amida Brimah following finger surgery while Texas is minus Cameron Ridley, out with a broken foot. |
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12-21-15 | Santa Clara +4.5 v. Pacific | Top | 72-73 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
Pacific is trying to unravel itself from a major mess involving academic misconduct. The fallout being the Tigers are 1-8 with their head coach and an assistant coach suspended indefinitely. There isn't a lot of incentive either even though this is their West Coast Conference opener as the Tigers are under a postseason ban as part of the sanctions. |
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12-19-15 | New Mexico State +4 v. UTEP | Top | 73-53 | Win | 100 | 17 h 27 m | Show |
New Mexico State had no problem with Texas El-Paso just 17 days ago, winning 73-59 at home. The Miners couldn't stop Pascal Siakam, who scored 24 points and pulled down 23 rebounds. |
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12-12-15 | UCLA +8 v. Gonzaga | Top | 71-66 | Win | 100 | 18 h 45 m | Show |
Gonzaga is far from in peak shape. The Bulldogs are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four home games. They lost to Arizona, 68-63, at home last Saturday and just nipped Montana, 61-58, at home this past Tuesday as 17 1/2-point favorites. |
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12-09-15 | Long Beach State +4 v. Pepperdine | Top | 75-77 | Win | 100 | 16 h 11 m | Show |
I believe the wrong team is favored. Both teams are .500, but Long Beach State has played a far more difficult schedule, one of the toughest non-conference slates in the country. That's going to help the 49ers here. |
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11-23-15 | Idaho v. North Texas OVER 147.5 | Top | 65-63 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 33 m | Show |
North Texas State has made it a high priority to improve its offense. The Mean Green are doing that by using a fast pace tempo. They have two good point guards - J-Mychal Reese and Ja'Michael Brown - and a number of good scorers. |
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11-16-15 | San Diego State v. Utah -5 | Top | 76-81 | Push | 0 | 6 h 37 m | Show |
Power-ratings-wise I have Utah favored by more than this line.  Look for San Diego State to have problems containing Utah center Jakob Poeltl. The Utes are going to be tough especially with the improvement made by sophomore forward Kyle Kuzma. |
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11-13-15 | Rice v. California -15.5 | Top | 65-97 | Win | 100 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
California has won its last nine opening games. That streak should easily continue against Rice. |
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04-04-15 | Michigan State v. Duke -5.5 | Top | 61-81 | Win | 100 | 17 h 56 m | Show |
A lot has changed since Duke defeated Michigan State by 10 points back on Nov. 18 in the Champions Classic. |
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03-31-15 | Stanford v. Old Dominion UNDER 138 | Top | 67-60 | Win | 100 | 39 h 20 m | Show |
This is too high of a total with Old Dominion involved even with the new shot clock rule in place. The Monarchs play at an extremely slow pace and are very strong defensively. Only seven teams in the country gave up fewer points per game than Old Dominion, which has held foes to 56.8 points a game.  |
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03-27-15 | NC State +3 v. Louisville | Top | 65-75 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 3 m | Show |
I had North Carolina State upsetting Villanova as the Wolfpack were my sleeper team to reach the Final Four - and I'm not getting off them now against a bogus Louisville team whose backcourt is way inferior to North Carolina State's minus Chris Jones. |
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03-26-15 | North Carolina v. Wisconsin UNDER 145.5 | Top | 72-79 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 29 m | Show |
The marketplace has been betting this total up partly because rugged 6-foot-9 North Carolina forward Kennedy Meeks isn't likely to play because of a knee sprain. Meeks leads the Tar Heels in blocked shots, but he also averages better than 11 points a game and is North Carolina's most accurate shooter making 56.5 percent of his field goals. |
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03-25-15 | Murray State +2 v. Old Dominion | Top | 69-72 | Loss | -120 | 15 h 58 m | Show |
Murray State won the CIT Tournament last year and has its sights set on winning the NIT this year. The Racers are tournament tested having lost only one player from last season. The Racers have covered seven of the last nine times on the road going against a foe with a winning home mark. |
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03-24-15 | Miami (FL) v. Richmond -2 | Top | 63-61 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 24 m | Show |
Richmond is playing its best basketball winning eight of its last nine games. The Spiders are 7-1-1 ATS during this span. They have won a school-record 16 home games this season. Miami has the disadvantage of not only being on the road but facing an unorthodox opponent on short preparation time having played this past Saturday. Richmond has a unique style with a matchup-zone defense and Princeton offense with lots of motion and backdoor cuts. The Hurricanes rely on their 3-point shooting. However, point guard Angel Rodriguez missed practice on Monday and isn't likely to play due to an injured wrist. Richmond ranks 29th in the country in 3-point defensive percentage. The Spiders also are 11-1-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a point spread cover. |
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03-23-15 | Illinois State +3.5 v. Old Dominion | Top | 49-50 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
Illinois State solidly beat Old Dominion this season. The Missouri Valley Conference, which Illinois State is a member of, was strong this season. Old Dominion could be without its best player. |
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03-22-15 | Michigan State v. Virginia -5 | Top | 60-54 | Loss | -103 | 21 h 55 m | Show |
This is not one of Tom Izzo's stronger Michigan State teams. The Spartans have flaws - lacking stars and poor free throw shooting to name two. They are going up against the top defensive team in the country. |
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03-20-15 | Dayton v. Providence -3 | Top | 66-53 | Loss | -109 | 33 h 27 m | Show |
Dayton can't match Providence's height, nor the talent level of the Friars' two major stars - Kris Dunn and LaDontae Henton. |
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03-19-15 | Texas -123 v. Butler | Top | 48-56 | Loss | -123 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
This year's version of Butler isn't as good as the Brad Stevens' teams of the past. The Bulldogs are just 4-4 in their last eight games and don't match up well to Texas. |
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03-18-15 | Gardner-Webb +12 v. Colorado | Top | 78-87 | Win | 100 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
Gardner-Webb is well-coached and battled-tested. The Runnin' Bulldogs defeated Purdue on the road and defeated Clemson at a neutral site. They have covered in 11 of their last 16 road games. They also are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 non-league games. |
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03-14-15 | Hawaii v. Cal-Irvine -2 | Top | 58-67 | Win | 100 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
UC Irvine is ready to make the NCAA Tournament for the first time. The Anteaters won the Big West last season by fell in the semifinals of the conference tournament. Lesson learned. They are primed and ready this time. They also draw Hawaii, fresh off an upset of regular-season champion UC Davis. |
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03-12-15 | Chicago State v. Seattle -5.5 | Top | 45-49 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 52 m | Show |
Seattle was 2-0 versus Chicago State during the regular season winning 57-31 at home and 75-67 on the road. This matchup is in Las Vegas. |
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03-11-15 | Colorado -3 v. Oregon State | Top | 78-71 | Win | 100 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
Oregon State was a nice story during the first half of the season. But the Beavers are shot now down to seven scholarship players and losing while failing to cover in six of their last seven games. |
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03-10-15 | Wisconsin Green Bay v. Valparaiso -2.5 | Top | 44-54 | Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
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03-07-15 | Connecticut v. Temple -3 | Top | 63-75 | Win | 100 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
The defending champion Huskies don't have it this season. That was made evident after they suffered a grueling 54-53 home loss to Memphis just two days ago. Memphis won despite not having its leading scorer, Austin Nichols. |
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03-06-15 | Southern Illinois v. Wichita State UNDER 122.5 | Top | 45-56 | Win | 100 | 1 h 57 m | Show |
Only six teams give up fewer points per game than Wichita State. Southern Illinois gives up 62.1 points per game to rank 57th. So we're definitely talking two excellent defenses here. |
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03-06-15 | Utah v. Washington State +13 | Top | 67-59 | Win | 100 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
Utah is nothing special on the road. The Utes are just 6-5 away from home. Washington State has been keeping its last few games close as five points or less has been the winning margin during its past three games. |
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03-04-15 | Colorado State -7.5 v. Nevada | Top | 78-62 | Win | 100 | 15 h 30 m | Show |
Colorado State 98, Nevada 42. That was the score of the first meeting. It was the largest margin of victory in a Mountain West Conference game. And the Rams did this without having their leading scorer and rebounder, J.J. Avila. |
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03-01-15 | Oregon State v. California -3 | Top | 56-73 | Win | 100 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
The bloom is off Oregon State and I don't see the Beavers getting it back in this road setting. |
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02-26-15 | Oregon State v. Stanford -8 | Top | 48-75 | Win | 100 | 16 h 44 m | Show |
The road and a weak bench are a combination that will sink the Beavers here. Aside from beating Washington State in early January, Oregon State hasn't won a Pac-12 road game going 1-6. The Beavers have lost their last four away matchups by a combined 70 points! |
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02-25-15 | Denver v. South Dakota -3.5 | Top | 66-48 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 37 m | Show |
Here's the short answer: South Dakota is playing well and Denver is terrible on the road. |
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02-21-15 | Marshall +10.5 v. UAB | Top | 54-72 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
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02-19-15 | Utah -8 v. Oregon State | Top | 47-37 | Win | 100 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
Oregon State has overachieved all season at home. But the Beavers are no match for Utah either from a height, depth and talent standpoint. |
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02-18-15 | Northwestern +11 v. Minnesota | Top | 72-66 | Win | 100 | 18 h 35 m | Show |
Northwestern has some much needed confidence after upsetting Iowa this past Sunday, can take advantage of Minnesota's weakness in 3-point defense and has proven itself on the road in the Big Ten. |
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02-17-15 | Michigan State -4 v. Michigan | Top | 80-67 | Win | 100 | 16 h 30 m | Show |
Yes, it's a great rivalry, but that can't hide the fact these teams are going in opposite directions. |
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02-16-15 | Pittsburgh +13 v. Virginia | Top | 49-61 | Win | 100 | 13 h 7 m | Show |
The record shows Virginia to be 23-1 and Pittsburgh having lost four of its five ACC road games. The Panthers probably aren't going to get an NCAA Tournament bid - unless they beat Virginia here on the road. |
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02-15-15 | Illinois +13.5 v. Wisconsin | Top | 49-68 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
This is a huge game for Illinois and the Illini will be up for the challenge remembering last year. That was when they were 13-2, ranked No. 23 and lost by 25 points at Madison. That loss derailed the Illini for the rest of the season. |
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02-14-15 | Oregon State -1 v. USC | Top | 55-68 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
Usually it's prudent to avoid Oregon State on the road. Play on the Beavers at home, but certainly not away. That's not the case here, though. |
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02-13-15 | Wisconsin Green Bay v. Valparaiso -3 | Top | 59-63 | Win | 100 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
Here's what you need to know about the Horizon League. Valparaiso, Green Bay and Cleveland State are all tied for first and all are undefeated in conference play at home, a combined 17-0. |
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