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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-21-21 | Flyers v. Bruins -130 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Boston Bruins over the Philadelphia Flyers. As expected, the Flyers have looked very good so far, with only one loss on their ledger after four games. But they've played two teams with suspect defenses in the Penguins and Sabres. And they have some players who have now landed on the COVID list as well as some others who are otherwise unhealthy coming into this match-up against the Bruins. The Flyers were already without #1 center Sean Couturier who has a rib separation, and now they may have to be without another as C Morgan Frost left Tuesday's game with an injury and was headed for an MRI as of this writing. That game was also potentially costly to Philadelphia's blue line as D Phillipe Myers was removed with an undisclosed injury and his status for tonight is questionable at best. Look for a very good Bruins team to take advantage as they go for their second win of the season in their home opener. Boston did get shutout in its last game, 1-0, by the Islanders. But the Bruins are 5-1 in their last six after being shut out, and they're 47-14 after giving up less than two goals in their previous game. Take Boston. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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01-20-21 | Wild -125 v. Ducks | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 17 h 47 m | Show |
At 9:35 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Wild over the Anaheim Ducks. Despite making the playoffs in seven of the last eight seasons, the Wild have very little to show for their regular season success. In fact, you have to go back to 2015 to find the last time this team won a post-season series. That is the main reason there was a bit of a revamping after the 2019-2020 abbreviated campaign that ended with a loss to Vancouver in the qualifying round. Out are a pair of veteran Centers (Mikko Koivu and Eric Staal) and in comes veteran Marcus Johansson (trade from Buffalo) to take over the top spot there. The Wild also parted ways with G Devan Dubnyk and replaced him with Cam Talbot who signed on for three years. Whether or not these changes (and there were others) make a major difference come post-season remains to be seen but the team already seems to be playing with a bit of a chip on its shoulder. That chip could come in handy tonight as the Wild try to avenge a difficult 1-0 loss to this Ducks team on Monday despite winning the shots battle, 34-27. Anaheim is a poor 5-15 (-11 games on the money line) in its last 20 off a home win by one goal. Take Minnesota. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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01-19-21 | Sabres v. Flyers -145 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 18 h 41 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Flyers over the Buffalo Sabres. After back-to-back losses to a very good Caps team to open the season, the Sabres were again decided underdogs in Game 3 on Monday against the undefeated Flyers. But they dominated last night and their reward is a rematch tonight in Philadelphia. The Flyers weren't very active in the free agent market, but they didn't need to be. The biggest additions this season will likely be two players that were already on their roster as Oskar Lindblom -- cancer recovery -- and Nolan Patrick -- migraine disorder -- could give the team huge boosts as they return to the ice. Lindblom's and Patrick's returns should give young goalie Carter Hart even more confidence as he continues his rise through the ranks of the NHL's elite net-minders. But with Hart having played last night, it will be veteran back-up Brian Elliott making his season debut in this one. The 35-year-old has been one of the most consistent goalies in the league over the past decade. Despite their loss last night, the Flyers have won nine of the last 13 meetings with Buffalo going back to February 2016. Take Philadelphia. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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09-28-20 | Lightning -165 v. Stars | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 16 h 54 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Lightning over the Dallas Stars. Game 5 of this Stanley Cup Finals was one for the ages. With their backs against the wall, the Stars somehow managed to survive yet again despite being out-shot and out-played by the Lightning. And once they were able to get the game into overtime, they seemed to be energized to a different level. Dallas prevailed 9:23 into the second overtime period on the second goal of the game by Corey Perry to stay alive and take this series to a sixth game. Like he has done much of these Playoffs, the Stars' goalie Anton Khodobin kept them in the game and you have to wonder if he has it in him to do it again. While this is a 3-2 series, the games really haven't been that close. The Bolts have out-shot the Stars in all five of the games, and they hold a cumulative advantage in that category of 175 to 135. Tampa is 64-25 (+25 games on the moneyline) in its last 56 immediately following a loss. Look for the Lightning to wrap up their second Stanley Cup Championship tonight. Take the Bolts. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-26-20 | Stars v. Lightning -155 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -155 | 15 h 51 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Lightning over the Dallas Stars. We cashed again last night on Tampa Bay (we've now played on the Lightning in each of their last 20 games), and won't get off them tonight, given that they might hoist Lord Stanley's Cup. Indeed, I released the Lightning as my NHL futures pick a year ago, prior to the season, at 7-1 odds, and it was one of my two favorite futures bets in the past 20 years (along with Virginia (2019) in NCAA basketball, at 22-1 odds). Game 5 of the 2020 Stanley Cup Finals will have an interesting wrinkle, as it will be played with no rest after a grueling, overtime Game 4 that went late into Friday night. When the smoke cleared, it was the Bolts who emerged with a 5-4 victory and a 3-1 series lead, needing just one more to clinch their second-ever Stanley Cup. Last night's defeat was painful for the Stars, who had three separate leads in the game (1-0, 2-0, and 3-2) but simply couldn't put the incredibly pesky Bolts away. And the penalty which set up Tampa's game-winning goal was questionable, too. It's not known as of this writing whether the Lightning will rest goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy to go with back-up Curtis McElhinney, but we're not going to let that possibility interfere with our selection as the Bolts have consistently shown that they can win without key players on the ice this entire post-season. This will be the second back-to-back game for Tampa in these playoffs, and it won the first one 7-1 over Boston. During the regular season, Tampa was 8-3 in 11 games with no off-day. Take the Lightning. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-25-20 | Lightning -152 v. Stars | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Lightning over the Dallas Stars. As if the Lightning's fortunes couldn't get any better, they got captain Steven Stamkos back on the ice for the first time in seven months and as if that wasn't enough, Stamkos scored on his first shot of the game. But it would also be his only shot as Stamkos didn't play in the final seven minutes of the first period and then didn't play the rest of the game, having apparently re-aggravated his injury. But it didn't matter much as the rest of the Bolts players stepped up in his absence and Tampa cruised to a 5-2 victory to take a 2-1 series lead heading into tonight's crucial Game 4. It was Tampa's most complete game of the series as the Bolts out-shot the Stars by 32-24 and out-played them on both ends of the ice, knocking Dallas goalie Anton Khudobin out after two periods. It's unclear whether Stamkos will suit up tonight, but the truth is that it may not matter if the Bolts continue to play like they have. Tampa is 46-21 in its last 67 after a win by more than two goals, while Dallas is 8-12 this season off back to back losses. Take the Bolts. As always good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-23-20 | Lightning -150 v. Stars | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Lightning over the Dallas Stars. After getting pushed around pretty bad in Game 1, the Tampa Bay Lightning made some adjustments before Game 2. Those adjustments paid off as Tampa built a 3-0 in the first period and was able to hold on for a 3-2 victory that evened this series at a game apiece. Tampa achieved two important things in the process of winning Game 2. First, unlike Game 1, the Bolts didn't let the Stars dictate the game with their physical play. And it seemed like every time one of Dallas' physical players -- and there are quite a few of them -- hit someone, they got hit back. Second, the Lightning were able to get to Stars' goalie Anton Khudobin early and often in building that 3-0 lead, and that could turn out to be the key to this series. It also won't hurt that Dallas suffered a key injury on Monday night, with Blake Comeau leaving the game in the 2nd period. The Stars generally have not responded well to close losses. In their last 52 games following a defeat by one goal, the Stars are 25-27 (-7 games on the moneyline). Take the Lightning. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-21-20 | Stars v. Lightning -147 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Lightning over the Dallas Stars. When the Lightning looked across the ice Saturday night, it probably seemed like looking into a mirror. If the Stars showed favored Tampa one thing in Game 1, it's that the Bolts will be facing a very different type of team than they saw in the last round. While the Isles tried to beat Tampa with tight checking and defense, the Stars will be using a much more open-ice, offensive style of hockey. And in Game 1 at least, they gave the Bolts a taste of their own medicine, so to speak, and came away with a 4-1 victory. The good news for Tampa is that the only real difference-maker for Dallas was goalie Anton Khudobin who had to be at his very best once again (35 saves). And while the Stars held a shot advantage through the first two periods, Tampa totally dominated in the last 20 minutes, and out-shot Dallas by a whopping 22-2 -- but just couldn't break Khudobin. Tampa is 40-12 (+23 games on the moneyline) in their last 52 following a loss by two or more goals, and 10-1 this season after not scoring two goals in their previous game. Take the Bolts. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-19-20 | Stars v. Lightning -145 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -145 | 14 h 23 m | Show |
At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Lightning over the Dallas Stars. It's been five days since the Dallas Stars wrapped up their series with the Golden Knights to reach their second Stanley Cup Finals ever (and first in 20 years). But the Lightning are fresh off of their six-game series win over a gutsy Islanders team, and if they don't miss a beat on the ice it could be bad news for Dallas. I don't expect Tampa to suffer in any way, as it's 61-23 (+23 games on the moneyline) when playing its 4th game in seven days. And, despite the number of close results on the scoreboard in Tampa's Eastern Conference Finals series, most of the games weren't really that competitive. The only thing that kept New York in Thursday's game (and some of the others) was the amazing play of goalie Semyon Varlamov who spent most of his time looking like he was facing a firing squad. If the Stars are even the least bit flat coming into tonight, it could be a long evening for them. The Bolts are 32-9 their last 41 after allowing one goal (or less) in their previous game. Take Tampa. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-17-20 | Lightning -160 v. Islanders | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Lightning over the New York Islanders. With the 2-1 defeat on Tuesday night that went into the 92nd minute of play, the Lightning have now played five overtime games since the playoffs began. Tuesday's was the first one in which they came up on the short end. In their last two OT contests (Boston on August 25 and 31), the Bolts came back in the next game to win easily (7-1 against the Bruins and 8-2 in Game 1 of this series). Tampa will be looking to make it three in a row and, by doing so, it will punch its ticket to its first Stanley Cup Finals in five years to take on the Dallas Stars. Once again in Game 5 the Bolts out-shot their opponents like they have in every game of this series, save one (Game 2) , and they appeared to dominate play throughout most of the OT affair. It was the first time the Lightning had been held to a single goal since Game 2 of the Columbus series. But the good news for tonight is that they are 43-8 in their last 51 after scoring two goals or less in their previous game. Take Tampa. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-15-20 | Islanders v. Lightning -170 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -170 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Lightning over the New York Islanders. Before the season, we tabbed Tampa Bay as our Futures pick to win the Stanley Cup (at 7-1 odds). And it was one of my two favorite Futures picks over the last 20 years (the other was my pick on Virginia in College Basketball at 22-1 odds, which won in 2019). After a dominating 4-1 victory in Game 4, the Tampa Bay Lightning are one win away from their first Stanley Cup Finals in five years. It seems as if there's little the Islanders can do at this point to stop the Bolts, especially considering that no matter how well goalie Semyon Varlamov plays, Tampa's Andrei Vasilevskiy is just that much better. Simply put, Vasilevskiy is the best net-minder in the world right now and it's really not close. Not that they needed any more help, but the Lightning got the services of Brayden Point back in Game 4. However they used him somewhat sparingly and it would show the Isles how confident they are if they didn't even put their talented forward on the ice tonight in an effort to ensure that he's 100% healthy for the Cup Finals. Tampa feeds off of dominant victories like the one it had in Game 4. The Bolts are 47-16 (+21 games on the moneyline) in their last 63 games after allowing one goal or less in their previous game. And they're also not prone to letdowns, as they're 119-64 (+14 games on the moneyline) off a win. And they're 11-4 when leading in a Playoff series. Take Tampa Bay. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-14-20 | Stars v. Golden Knights -168 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -168 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Vegas Golden Knights over the Dallas Stars. If they Knights are going to get back to the Stanley Cup Finals for the second time in three seasons, then they're going to have to do it by way of a three-game win streak. But despite being down 3-1 to the Stars in this series, there is some good news. For one thing, all three of their losses have been by a single goal while in their lone victory, the Knights won 3-0. Second, they have matched or bested the Stars in shots on goal in all four of the games played and in Game 4, Vegas out-shot Dallas by 13 (33-20). They just have to find a way to get the better of Dallas goalie Anton Khudobin who has been their MVP in the playoffs. Add C/LW Roope Hintz to the Stars' list of walking wounded as he left Game 4 with an undisclosed injury and likely won't be available tonight. That's the second key Dallas Forward to go down with an injury in this series. The Knights are 8-1 (+8 games on the moneyline) in their last nine after losing two straight by one goal. Take Vegas. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-13-20 | Lightning -140 v. Islanders | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
At 3:05 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Lightning over the New York Islanders. The Isles finally put together 60 minutes of solid, physical hockey, resulting in their first win of this series, 5-3, on Friday night. A loss in Game 3 would have all but doomed New York in its quest for its first Stanley Cup Finals appearance since 1984. The Isles still have quite a hill to climb (more like a mountain) as Tampa goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy had an off night in Game 3, and the chances of him having another in succession are small. The Bolts could get a huge lift this afternoon from the possible return of Brayden Point. The dynamic young center missed Game 3 after having to leave Game 2 with an injury but he's been skating with the team. Even without him, Tampa was in the game almost the entire time and easily could have won if the puck had bounced its way in the third period. The Bolts are 12-2 (+9 games on the moneyline) in their last 14 after losing their previous game by two or more goals (39-12, +22 games, in their last 51). Take Tampa. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-09-20 | Islanders v. Lightning -162 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Lightning over the New York Islanders. If this was supposed to be a close Finals Series with a lot of back-and-forth play then somebody forgot to tell the Lightning before Game 1. In the biggest rout of the post-season since they did basically the same thing to the Bruins about two weeks ago, the Bolts blitzed the Isles, 8-2 in a game that was basically over almost as soon as it started. New York tried everything, including replacing its goalie but nothing helped. The Isles have to regroup now but clearly they need another formula from the one they employed on Monday night. Tampa goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy didn't have his best stuff in Game 1 (two goals allowed on 24 shots) but he didn't have to. And the scary thing for New York is that Tampa generally doesn't have letdowns after games like that. In fact the Bolts are 21-9 (+6 games on the moneyline) in their last 30 after a blowout win by four or more goals. They're also 11-2 in their last 13 after a five-game win streak. Take the Lightning. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-08-20 | Stars v. Golden Knights -159 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Vegas Golden Knights over the Dallas Stars. Whatever we were expecting from Game 1 of this series, what we got was an old-fashioned defensive battle. When the smoke cleared, it was the Stars' first period goal which made all the difference in an unlikely 1-0 victory over favored Vegas. A total of only 50 shots on goal were fired in the entire 60 minutes (25 for each side). It was the exact same strategy that the Stars employed to take down the heavily favored, and offensively superior Avalanche. But if the you're Vegas, the worst thing you can do now is panic and start changing lines. When they were shut out by the Canucks in Game 6 as a heavy favorite, the Knights simply re-grouped to turn the tables in a 3-0 Game 7 victory. The Knights will get a big boost tonight from the return of tough, physical forward Ryan Reeves, who is back after a one-game suspension. Vegas is 8-3 in its last 11 after being shut out. Take the Knights. As always, good luck...Al McMordie |
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09-07-20 | Islanders v. Lightning -146 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 16 h 34 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Lightning over the New York Islanders. There's quite a contrast in the way these two teams got to this point. The Lightning rolled past the over-matched Bruins in five games, winning four straight after losing the opener and out-scoring Boston 13-4 in the final three. Meanwhile, the Islanders had a back-and-forth, seven-game nail-biting series with the Flyers, finally putting it all together in Game 7 with a no-doubt victory. And while Tampa won't get the services of its leader, Steven Stamkos back for this series (so says the team currently), it will have Nikita Kucherov (high stick to the face) ready to go tonight and that's very good news. But the man of the hour would seem to be Tampa's all-everything goaltender, Andrei Vasilevskiy. There's little doubt now that the 26-year-old is the best netminder in the game, never mind the best left in the playoffs. It's hard to imagine the Isles having much of an answer to him. The Bolts are 10-2 in their last 12 games vs. teams from the Metropolitan division, and Tampa's also 13-2 this season (and 35-14 their last 49) when they've won their four previous games. Take Tampa Bay. As always, good luck...Al McMordie |
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09-06-20 | Stars v. Golden Knights -160 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -160 | 14 h 46 m | Show |
At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Vegas Golden Knights over the Dallas Stars. While most people probably expected the Knights to be here in the Western Conference Finals, the fact that the Stars made it this far is somewhat of a surprise. It's Dallas' first trip here in over 10 years (2008) and the Stars made it by basically beating the Avalanche at their own game. But Colorado was at a distinct disadvantage without its #1 goalie, Philipp Grubauer who missed almost the entire series with an injury, leaving the team to rely on its #2 and #3 net-minders, neither of whom were very effective in the end. That's a problem the Knights don't have as not only do they have a strong veteran goalie who's been here before in Marc-Andre Fleury, but they also have one of the best in the game in Robin Lehner. This is probably the match-up the Knights wanted as they are 6-1 in the last seven meetings with the Stars, while Dallas has won just 16 of 37 games (minus 10 games on the moneyline) off a game in which they scored more than four goals. Take Vegas. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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09-05-20 | Islanders -124 v. Flyers | Top | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 15 h 58 m | Show |
At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the New York Islanders over the Philadelphia Flyers. You can sum up another come-from-behind Flyers victory on Thursday to force this seventh game in two words -- Carter Hart. The young goaltender was outstanding when he needed to be, amidst an onslaught of pressure from a superior Islanders offense for most of the game's five periods. When the smoke cleared, and Ivan Provorov had won it for Philly, Hart had made a remarkable 49 saves and was the unquestionable MVP for his team. On the other end, Semyon Varlamov had his second shaky performance in a row so I wouldn't be surprised if Barry Trotz tabbed Thomas Greiss to be in net for New York tonight. But we've seen Hart struggle after a huge effort before, so if the Isles keep the pressure up like they did on Thursday, they should find themselves in the East Finals against the Lightning. Indeed, they've been without a doubt the better team in this series. One of my favorite stats of this year's Playoffs is that New York is 10-5 in the Playoffs, and has yet to lose by more than 1 goal. In other words: they've played well enough to have won every single game. For the Playoffs, they've outscored their foes 50-31, while the Flyers have actually been outscored 33-27, even though they've won seven of 12 games.  So, New York's outscored its foes by an average of 1.26 gpg, while the Flyers have been outscored by 0.5 gpg. New York's a super 33-25 off back to back losses (+10 games on the moneyline). Take the Islanders. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-04-20 | Canucks v. Golden Knights -202 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
At 9 pm, our selection is on the Vegas Golden Knights over Vancouver. The Knights were shutout, 4-0, last night by the upstart Canucks. And this quarterfinals series is now tied at 3-games apiece. However, if there is a silver lining for Vegas, it's that they've out-shot the Canucks in each of the six games, including a staggering 91-40 over the past two games! But hockey can be a cruel sport, so the Knights are no doubt scratching their heads after losing both of the last two games. Still, if you're going to have the overwhelming number of shots on goal, you'll generally take your chances. Vegas is a solid 18-7 (+6 games on the moneyline) when playing with revenge this season, and 29-14 (+11 games on the moneyline) after not scoring 2+ goals in its previous game. Take the Golden Knights. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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08-31-20 | Stars v. Avalanche -131 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
At 9:45 pm, our selection is on the Colorado Avalanche over the Dallas Stars. Like their Denver counterparts in Major League Baseball (the Rockies), the Avalanche are known for scoring. So it was more than a little disconcerting when they managed just five total goals in Games 1 and 2 of this series and quickly fell behind a very good Stars team, 2-0. But the Avs didn't panic, and sure enough, the scoring came back in Game 3 this past Wednesday in a virtual "must-win" situation. They took that one 6-4, netting their six goals on just 31 shots and gave themselves an opportunity for a new series after that effort. Unfortunately, they fell behind early last night, and lost 5-4, so they're now one game away from elimination. Thus, tonight's game is a definite "must-win." Colorado is 16-8 after allowing 4+ goals, and it's also 13-6 when playing with revenge from a loss in which it surrendered 4+ goals. Meanwhile, the Stars are a poor 16-20 (minus 9 games on the moneyline) after scoring more than 4 goals in their previous game.  Take the Avalanche. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-31-20 | Bruins v. Lightning -118 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 37 m | Show |
At 7:00 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Lightning over the Boston Bruins. After two dominating victories, the Lighting are one game away from a trip to the Eastern Conference finals to take on either the Flyers or the Islanders. You just have to feel that the air has gone out of the Boston balloon at this point, having been outscored by a combined 10-2 in the last two games. And a perfect scenario would be for Tampa to wrap up the series tonight and have the Flyers and Islanders duke it out for several more days while the Bolts get a chance to rest and practice. Tampa is an incredible 15-3 its last 18 immediately following a game where it did not give up 2+ goals, while Boston's an awful 10-16 (minus 14 games on the moneyline) when playing with triple revenge. Take the Lightning. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-30-20 | Golden Knights v. Canucks +185 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the Vancouver Canucks over the Vegas Golden Knights. This has been a back-and-forth series so far, with the Knights taking Games 1 and 3, and the Canucks taking Game 2. Last night, the Golden Knights broke out on top, 2-0, in the first period even though they were outshot in that period, 16-9. We'll play on Vancouver to bounce back off its shutout loss last night, as it's 5-1 this season off a shutout defeat, and 16-8 (+11 games on the money line) off a shutout loss the last three seasons. Indeed, its Game 2 victory was immediately off a 5-0 shutout loss in Game 1 of this series. Take the Canucks in Game 4 tonight. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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08-30-20 | Flyers +108 v. Islanders | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Flyers over the New York Islanders. We played on the Islanders yesterday as our NHL Game of the Month for August, and were rewarded with a 3-1 victory. But we'll switch gears today, and take the #1-seeded Flyers in what is, essentially, a 'must-win' game, given that teams rarely come back from a 3-1 series deficit. The Flyers are a solid 17-6 (+10 games on the money line) when playing with revenge this season from a loss earlier in the year, and 19-12 (+6 games on the moneyline) off a loss. Take Philadelphia. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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08-29-20 | Golden Knights -195 v. Canucks | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 29 h 25 m | Show |
At 9:45 pm, our selection is on the Vegas Golden Knights over the Vancouver Canucks. As a #5 seed winning its first-round series in a slight upset over the defending champion St. Louis Blues, Vancouver was rewarded by having to face #1 seed Vegas. Many thought this might not be much of a series, and it certainly started to look that way after Vegas white-washed Vancouver in Game 1, 5-0. But to their credit, the Canucks came back big in Game 2 and won decisively, 5-2. If the Knights want a positive takeaway from that loss, there's the fact that they out-played the Canucks through most of that game and out-shot them by a lopsided 40-26. Jacob Markstrom, who was replaced during Game 1 came back and was excellent for Vancouver in Game 2 but he's an inconsistent goalie who will be the target tonight for the Vegas sharp-shooters. The Canucks are 12-19 (-6 games on the moneyline) in their last 31 immediately off a win vs. a Division rival, while Vegas is 17-6 this season when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the year. Take the Knights. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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08-29-20 | Flyers v. Islanders -111 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 25 h 10 m | Show |
At 7:00 pm, our selection is on the New York Islanders over the Philadelphia Flyers. After a couple days of postponements, the NHL playoffs re-start today with two games on the ledger that feature the #1 seeds in each conference. And in both cases, those #1 seeds have to feel at least a little bit nervous at this stage. For the Flyers, they're one of the only teams left in the post-season that has perhaps some question at the goaltender position. On the one hand there is young Carter Hart who has gotten them most of the way here, but has shown some cracks and whose inexperience appears to be a vulnerability. On the other, there is veteran Brian Elliott who has plenty of playoff experience but whose best years are behind him. Philly has stuck with Hart so far, but he's been very shaky in two of the last four games and a poor showing early on in this Game 3 might get him the hook. The Flyers are lucky this series is not 0-2 right now, needing OT to win Game 2 after getting trounced in the first one. The Isles like the position they're in as they're playing great hockey since the re-start. And their great play has completely erased the memory of their 7-game losing streak heading into this post-season. Indeed, in New York's three playoff series, they're 8-3, and have yet to lose by more than one goal. Overall, they've outscored their opponents by 37-19, or 1.63 gpg. In contrast, the Flyers have gone 5-3 in their two playoff series, but have been outscored 20-15 (-0.62 gpg). Take New York. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-29-20 | Lightning -110 v. Bruins | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 20 h 52 m | Show |
At 12:05 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Lightning over the Boston Bruins. Including the Round Robin, the Lightning had played a total of 10 post-season games heading into Wednesday night's Game 3 against the Bruins. In those 10, the Bolts were 7-3 and they had won each of those seven games by one goal. Apparently, Tampa really wanted to break that streak of one-goal victories in playoff game #11. Everything came together for the Bolts -- and fell apart for the Bruins -- in Game 3 as Tampa demolished Boston, 7-1. Perhaps more impressive is the fact that the seven goals were scored on just 31 shots, resulting in the removal of Jaroslav Halak about mid-way through and the insertion of Daniel Vladar -- the first Bruins goalie ever to make his NHL debut in the post-season. If that sounds like trouble for Boston, it is and no doubt Tampa would like to end this series as soon as possible to get some added rest before the next round. Surprisingly (for a team as good as the Bruins), Boston has won just 18 of 51 games when playing with revenge from a loss by more than three goals. The Bolts are 45-15 in their last 60 after allowing one goal or less in their previous game, and 44-12 their last 56 division contests. Take Tampa. As always, good luck...Al McMordie |
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08-26-20 | Lightning -105 v. Bruins | Top | 7-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 20 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Lightning over the Boston Bruins. After being upset in Game 1, the Lightning bounced back nicely last night to take Game 2 in OT over a very determined Bruins team. Now, with no off-day, the Bolts have to avoid another letdown. They know now that the Bruins are not going to go away without a fight and there's plenty of size on that Boston roster to go toe-to-toe with the talented and speedy Bolts. The key to this series will almost certainly be between the pipes. While the Bruins feature a goalie who was part of a Jennings Trophy-winning tandem in Jaroslav Halak, Tampa has on its side the best young net-minder in the game (and the defending Vezina Trophy winner), Andrei Vasilevskiy. Ironically by the numbers, Vasileveskiy was actually slightly worse in Game 2 than Game 1, but he was huge for his team when it needed him most. With its Game 2 victory, Tampa is now 20-7 in its last 27 vs. division opponents. Take the Lightning. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-25-20 | Bruins v. Lightning -106 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 16 h 44 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Lightning over the Boston Bruins. When a team goes from playing a huge revenge match-up in the first round to a very good team in the second round, they often find themselves flat. Such was the case for the Lightning in Game 1 of this series having come off of a big payback series with the Blue Jackets. By the time Tampa figured out it was playing the Bruins this time around, it had fallen behind 3-0. The Bolts were out-shot 15-10 in the first period. But after they woke up in the second period, the Lightning dominated the rest of the way, out-shooting the Bruins 27-16 in the final 40 minutes (but only managing to get two of the goals back). The 3-2 defeat was stinging for sure, but it should've taught Tampa Bay a lesson in the process. Expect 60 minutes of Lightning hockey tonight as the Bolts try to even this series. Vezina Trophy winner Andrei Vasilevskiy had a rare off-night in goal but I expect him to bounce back big in Game 2. Tampa is 15-7 in its last 22 immediately following a loss to a Division rival. Take the Lightning. As always, good luck...Al McMordie |
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08-24-20 | Stars v. Avalanche -156 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -156 | 16 h 7 m | Show |
At 9:45 pm, our selection is on the Colorado Avalanche over the Dallas Stars. It's no small feat what the Stars pulled off in Game 1 of this series. The high-octane Avs finished off the Coyotes in the first round by scoring seven goals in back to back contests in Games 4 and 5 and out-scored them by a total of 22-8 in the series. Yet somehow the Stars managed to hold Colorado to just three goals in Game 1 and come away with a 5-3 victory. But don't think the offensive juggernaut of the Avs is done. They were the highest scoring offense in the regular season and they rarely throw back-to-back duds. The biggest problem for Colorado in Game 1 may have been that goalie Philipp Grubauer was playing hurt in the first period when the Stars netted three of their goals and he eventually came out of the game and was replaced by Pavel Francouz. Francouz is a solid back-up and will be ready for 60 minutes tonight. The Avs are 5-1 (+5 games on the money line) in their last six coming off a loss by at least two goals to a division rival. Take Colorado. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-23-20 | Bruins v. Lightning -105 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 0 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Lightning over the Boston Bruins. We're down to four teams in each Conference and perhaps no series is as compelling as this one. These two are everyone's favorite playoff underachievers (now that the Caps have won it all) since 2011, the last time one of them took home the Stanley Cup (Boston). Between them, the Bruins and Bolts have lost three Stanley Cup Finals in the last seven years and of course only one of these teams can get there this year. It's the Lightning who come into this quarterfinal series off of a major high, having beaten the team that knocked them out in four straight in the first round in 2019 (Columbus). Their mantra in this playoff run should be "No Stamkos, No problem" as the Bolts have been playing some of their best hockey of the season despite the continued loss of their Captain. This could be the best match-up for them right now as the Bolts are 19-6 (+9 games on the moneyline) in their last 25 games vs. Division foes. Take Tampa. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-19-20 | Blue Jackets v. Lightning -171 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 4 h 28 m | Show |
At 12 noon, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Lightning over the Columbus Blue Jackets. There are two takeaways from this -- so far -- lopsided playoff series that could be wrapped up by Tampa this afternoon. The first is that revenge can be sweet as it was the Jackets who eliminated the heavily favored Bolts with a first round playoff sweep in 2019. The second is that a team with depth, a strong defense, and a Vezina-caliber goalie can overcome the loss of its best player as Tampa has done in the post-season so far without C Steven Stamkos. Since that first round shellacking, the Bolts have taken four of five meetings with the Jackets and look to make it five of six today while moving on to the next round. It's not like the Jackets have been a push-over as these battles are close, but it seems that the more tight, low-scoring games the Bolts play, the more they benefit. They are an super 44-15 in their last 59 after allowing one goal or less, while the Jackets are a horrid 24-35 (minus 13 games on the moneyline) when playing with double-revenge. Take Tampa. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-17-20 | Lightning -151 v. Blue Jackets | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
At 3:00 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Lightning over the Columbus Jackets. After a somewhat surprising comeback by the Blue Jackets in Game 2 of this series, the Lightning's stifling defense took over in Game 3. Tampa smothered Columbus pretty much the entire game on Saturday, allowing just 17 shots to get through to their outstanding net-minder (only seven in the last 45 minutes) and the Bolts won the game 3-2 to take a 2-1 series lead. Tampa has now out-shot Columbus by a whopping 159-102 over the course of the three games and if this continues then it will likely be lights out for the Jackets. In addition to the suffocating defense of their opponent, the Jackets are continuing to be hampered by the loss of several key offensive players. On the other side, with the depth the Lightning have, they haven't seemed to have missed star Steven Stamkos who has been out with a lower body injury. A lot of teams will suffer letdowns off wins, or bounce back after losses, but not these two teams. Tampa is 112-62 (+9 games on the moneyline) off a win, while the Jackets are a poor 18-23 this season off a loss, and just just 14-21 (-5 games on the money line) in its last 35 revenging a loss against an opponent. Take Tampa. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-16-20 | Flyers -130 v. Canadiens | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
At 8:00 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Flyers over the Montreal Canadiens. Those who thought that the Canadiens' improbable run would end quickly in round one against the talented, top-seeded Flyers were in a for a bit of a shock on Friday. The lowest seeded team, who beat the mighty Penguins in four games in the play-in round, shocked Philly with a 5-0 rout two nights ago. Veteran goalie Carey Price was magnificent, stopping all 30 shots he faced while the Flyers pulled their #1, Carter Hart, after he allowed four goals and replaced him with veteran Brian Elliott. If you're a Flyers fan there's no need to panic just yet. Philly was simply flat on Friday and the Flyers have done a really good job recently at bouncing back after games like that. Philly is 7-2 (+6 games on the moneyline) in its last nine after a blowout loss of at least five goals in the previous contest. The Flyers are also 14-5 (+10 games on the moneyline) in their last 19 revenging a loss to an opponent. Meanwhile, the Canadiens are a poor 6-11 this season (and 16-32 the past 3 seasons (-15 games on the moneyline)) when matched up against the league's best teams (which outscore their foes by 0.5 goals per game). Take Philadelphia. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-15-20 | Lightning -167 v. Blue Jackets | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 26 m | Show |
At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Lightning over the Columbus Blue Jackets. You have to hand it to the Blue Jackets. After a devastating 5 OT loss in Game one on Tuesday, you wouldn't blame them if they packed it in. But Columbus sucked it up and came back in Game 2 on Thursday and beat the favored Bolts, 3-1. Now it's up to Tampa to show that it can rebound in the same manner. The Lightning once again had a huge shot advantage in game two, 37-22, but following his NHL record 85-save performance in Game 1, Columbus goalie Joonas Korpisalo was stellar once again. Look for the Bolts to shake up their front lines in an effort to get back to the type of scoring they had during most of the regular season (first in the NHL at 3.47 GPG). The banged-up Jackets will once again be without several key offensive players, including Brandon Dubinsky, Josh Anderson, and Cam Atkinson. Tampa is 19-3 (+14 games on the moneyline) in its last 22 after scoring 1 goal or less in its previous game, and 59-25 (+20 games on the moneyline) off a loss. Take the Lightning. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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