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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-23-18 | Chargers +7.5 v. Rams | Top | 23-35 | Loss | -121 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Chargers + the points over the LA Rams. The Rams were my preseason pick to win the Super Bowl, at 10-1 odds. And, so far, so good, as they're 2-0, and have the league's #1-ranked scoring defense, and also rank first in overall efficiency and scoring margin. This week, they'll try to move to 3-0, but will be tasked with a much more difficult opponent than they saw in their first two games. In Weeks 1 and 2, the Rams faced two below-average teams in the Raiders and Cardinals. Now, they'll face the Chargers, who are scoring 29.5 points per game, and who rank among the Top 3 in offensive efficiency, and among the Top 10 in overall efficiency. In this battle between offense and defense, we'll grab the points, as NFL road underdogs (or PK) are 16-0 ATS since 2006, at Game 3 forward, if they score 27.7 points per game, and their foe gives up 15 or less points per game. Take the Chargers. NFL Rivalry Game of the Week. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-23-18 | Colts v. Eagles -7 | Top | 16-20 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 47 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Eagles minus the points over Indianapolis. We played on the Colts last week, and were rewarded with a 21-9 upset win over Washington by Indy. Can Indy make it two upsets in a row? Unfortunately, it's not likely, as road teams off upset wins have only cashed 37% since 1980 against an opponent coming off an upset loss on the road. Moreover, defending Super Bowl Champions have gone 43-30, 58.9% ATS off a road upset loss since 1980. With Philly off an upset loss at Tampa Bay last week, we'll lay the points with the Eagles on Sunday. NFL Roadkill Winner! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-23-18 | Saints +2.5 v. Falcons | Top | 43-37 | Win | 100 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Saints + the points over Atlanta. The Saints enter this game with a 1-1 record, but have yet to cover the point spread. However, they are an underdog here, compared to being a double-digit favorite in each of their first two games. We'll take New Orleans + the points, as underdogs (or PK) have cashed 73% over the past 38 years off back to back ATS losses as double-digit favorites. Additionally, New Orleans falls into 41-21 and 97-49 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams to bounce back off ATS losses. Finally, New Orleans is 38-27 ATS as an underdog, while Atlanta is a money-burning 19-31 ATS as a favorite. Take the Saints. NFL Division Game of the Month. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-22-18 | Air Force v. Utah State -10 | Top | 32-42 | Push | 0 | 18 h 29 m | Show |
At 10:15 pm, our selection is on the Utah State Aggies minus the points over Air Force. The Falcons have won the last three meetings in this series, but I love Utah State to get revenge on Saturday night. Utah State is 3-0 ATS this season, and comes into this game off back to back blowout wins, in which Utah State scored 60 and 73 points! For the season, Utah State has scored a whopping 164 points (54.67 ppg). I love offensive-minded College teams, and it's been very profitable to play on favorites of -30 points or less that scored 150+ points over their previous three games. Indeed, since 1990, they've cashed 67.1% at home in the regular season when not favored by more than 30 points if they were playing a non-winning opponent. Even better: if our team was also playing with revenge, then our system moves to 77% ATS, including a perfect 7-0 ATS its last seven. Take the Aggies. NCAA Payback Payday! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-22-18 | Army v. Oklahoma -30 | Top | 21-28 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 20 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma Sooners minus the points over Army. The Black Knights are 2-1 this season after winning back-to-back home games over Liberty and Hawaii. Now, they'll hit the road to play the #5-ranked Oklahoma Sooners, who are 3-0 this season. Army has had its troubles on the road over the last eight years. This season, it was blown out by the Duke Blue Devils, 34-14. And Army is 8-31 straight-up, and 13-25-1 ATS its last 39 on the road. Meanwhile, the Sooners are 10-2 ATS their last 12 at home. And they fall into 49-15, 64-27 and 55-18 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams off wins. Take Oklahoma minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-22-18 | Louisiana Tech +20.5 v. LSU | Top | 21-38 | Win | 100 | 15 h 20 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs + the points over LSU. Last week, the Tigers shocked Auburn as a double-digit underdog, and won 22-21. But off that big upset win, we will fade LSU as a big favorite vs. Louisiana Tech (which is also undefeated this season). Indeed, home teams have cashed just 28% in the regular season since 1980 vs. non-conference foes off a win, if our home team won outright as a double-digit road dog their previous game! Take Louisiana Tech. NCAA Game of the Week. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-22-18 | Mississippi State v. Kentucky +9.5 | Top | 7-28 | Win | 100 | 15 h 16 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Kentucky Wildcats + the points over Mississippi State. The Wildcats are 3-0 this season, including an impressive 27-16 victory at Florida, which snapped a 31-game losing streak to the Gators. Now, the Wildcats will attempt to move to 2-0 in SEC Conference play by avenging a 38-point loss to the Bulldogs last season. They've been installed as a double-digit home underdog. And we'll grab the points, as double-digit home underdogs off a win, with a .666 (or better) win percentage, have cashed 57% since 1980 when playing with revenge against a conference opponent. Take Kentucky. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-22-18 | Texas A&M v. Alabama -26 | Top | 23-45 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Alabama Crimson Tide minus the points over Texas A&M. The Tide have run roughshod over their first three opponents, with wins by 37 (Louisville), 50 (Arkansas State) and 55 (Mississippi) points. And with those blowouts, the Tide has covered the point spread by an average of 20.5 points per game. I look for Alabama to make it four in a row on Saturday, as NCAA Football teams off 3 SU/ATS wins, that scored 50+ points in each of those three games, have cashed 65.7% in the regular season since 1980. Lay the points. |
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09-22-18 | Louisville +5.5 v. Virginia | Top | 3-27 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
At 12:30 pm, our selection is on the Louisville Cardinals + the points over Virginia. The Cardinals come into this game off three straight ATS losses, while Virginia comes in off three straight ATS wins. The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the Cavaliers, but winless ATS teams (at Game 4 forward) actually cover the spread more often than not! And Louisville falls into a 152-96 ATS system of mine which plays on certain winless ATS teams. Cardinals coach Bobby Petrino will start redshirt freshman Malik Cunningham this week after the young QB was impressive as a back-up in Louisville's last two games (both wins). The Cards have scored on eight of Cunningham's 12 drives, and has been the most effective rusher (183 yards on 33 carries) this season. In contrast, the erstwhile starter, Jawon Pass, did not lead a drive that ended in points in either of the last two games. This will no doubt be a positive move for Louisville's offense, which has averaged just 5.02 yards per play this season. Take the Cardinals on Saturday. |
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09-22-18 | Pittsburgh v. North Carolina +3.5 | Top | 35-38 | Win | 100 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
At 12:20 pm, our selection is on the North Carolina Tar Heels + the points over Pittsburgh. UNC has dominated this series since Pittsburgh joined the ACC Conference, with five straight wins since 2013 (4-1 ATS). I look for that dominance to continue today, as Pitt falls into a negative 6-24 ATS system of mine following its upset win over Georgia Tech last week. Additionally, the Tar Heels fall into 75-20 and 90-32 ATS systems of mine which play on certain teams in conference games off losses. Finally, Pitt's cashed just 25% as conference road favorites over the past 38 years off an upset win, while North Carolina is 10-1 ATS as home/neutral field underdogs vs. foes off an upset win the previous week. Take North Carolina. |
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09-22-18 | Georgia v. Missouri +15.5 | Top | 43-29 | Win | 100 | 60 h 17 m | Show |
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Missouri Tigers + the points over Georgia. The Tigers have rolled to an impressive 3-0 record to start the season, and have scored 40+ points in each of their three victories. Now, they'll face the #3-ranked Bulldogs, who are also 3-0 this season. These two teams met last season, and Missouri lost, 53-28, in Athens. But that was the last time the Tigers lost a regular season game. Since then, they've reeled off nine straight wins. Don't be surprised if Mizzou pulls off the shocker in Columbia on Saturday afternoon, as NCAA Football teams have cashed 67.05% since 1980 off three straight games where they scored more than 38 points, if they were not playing on the road, and were not favored by more than 3 points. And if our team was also playing with revenge against a conference foe, then our 67% system zooms to 78%. Take Missouri + the points. SEC Conference Game of the Month. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-22-18 | Akron v. Iowa State -19.5 | Top | 13-26 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
At 12 Noon, our selection is on Iowa State minus the points over Akron. The Cyclones are 0-2 this year following double-digit losses to Iowa and Oklahoma. But ISU was an underdog in each of those two games; they're going 'down in class,' and favored by double-digits here. Since 1980, Game 3 favorites off back to back losses as underdogs, have covered 80% vs. foes off back to back wins! And that's the situation here, as Akron comes in off wins over Morgan State and Northwestern. Even worse for the Zips: they were a 21-point underdog last week, but won, 39-34. However, teams off back to back wins are an awful 19-41 ATS if they won outright as an 18-point (or greater) underdog in their previous game. Take Iowa State. |
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09-22-18 | Ohio v. Cincinnati -7 | Top | 30-34 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 12 m | Show |
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bearcats minus the points over Ohio. Last week, the Bearcats drilled Alabama A&M, 63-7, and moved to 3-0 on the season. And it was also the second straight game the Bearcats didn't give up 10 points to their opponent. For the season, Cincy's defense is giving up just eight points per game. And College Football single-digit home favorites (or PK) have cashed 61.5% over the last 38 seasons after scoring 60+ points in a win the previous game. And our angle zooms to 89% ATS if our team also owns a defense that surrenders 8 points or less per game! Lay the points with the Bearcats. NCAA Football High Noon Hanging. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-21-18 | Florida Atlantic +14 v. Central Florida | Top | 36-56 | Loss | -110 | 38 h 29 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Florida Atlantic Owls + the points over Central Florida. The Owls have won their last two games on the scoreboard, but are 0-3 "in Vegas," as they've yet to cover the point spread in the season's first three weeks. They'll try to finally cash a ticket on Friday night when they travel to Orlando to play Central Florida, which had last weekend off after its 38-0 win vs. South Carolina State. And that was the 15th straight win for the Knights, dating back to last season. However, when teams (like Florida Atlantic) start the season 0-3 ATS (or worse), I'll definitely start to look to play on them (for reasons of "point spread value") if certain, other factors are present. Here, Florida Atlantic falls into a 152-96 ATS system of mine which plays on certain .500 (or better) teams that have failed to cover any of their games. That doesn't bode well for the Knights on Friday. And neither does the fact that Central Florida has not fared well over the years vs. other Florida universities, as it's gone 7-12 ATS, including 2-10 ATS vs. foes off a win. Take Florida Atlantic + the points. NCAA ELITE INFO. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-21-18 | Cubs -162 v. White Sox | Top | 4-10 | Loss | -162 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Chicago White Sox. This afternoon, Jose Quintana will return to the park he called home for the first five-and-a-half seasons of his MLB career. And the situation in which Quintana pitches against his former team for the first time since going from the South Side to Wrigley Field couldn't be more important. The Cubs were blasted 9-0 by Arizona on Wednesday, but are still clinging to a 2 1/2 game lead over the pesky Brewers. They'll have a great chance to improve on that in the next week, as their next seven games are against teams with losing records, starting with this weekend set vs. the White Sox. Sure, Quintana holds a career losing record here at Guaranteed Rate Field (22-27), but that's mainly because he pitched for a losing team most of the time and he also owns a 3.59 ERA over those 84 games (82 starts). What a thrill it would be for him to get his team that much closer to its third straight Division Title with a win today. The White Sox are just 9-25 in their last 34 inter-league games while the Cubs are 22-7 in their last 29 inter-league road games vs. teams with a losing record, and 65-27 (+26 games on the moneyline) off a game where they failed to score 2+ runs. Take the Cubs. MLB Road Warrior Winner. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-20-18 | Red Sox +152 v. Yankees | Top | 11-6 | Win | 152 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over the New York Yankees. Having all but locked up the AL East as well as the best record in baseball, there are reasons to think that the Red Sox are taking their foot off of the proverbial accelerator with a little more than a week to go in the regular season. And getting blown out, 10-1, like they did to the Yankees last night, certainly seems to back that thinking. But there are at least two reasons to believe that Boston still wants to win games. First is the fact that the Sox are two victories away from their franchise record for wins in a season (105). And second is fact that the last thing a #1 seed wants to do going into the playoffs is to come in off a string of losing efforts, especially if those losses are to its division rival. So, tonight, I expect the Boston bats to come out in support of LHP Eduardo Rodriguez who goes to the hill for his 23rd start of the season. Certainly, Chris Sale has been Boston's #1 pitcher this season. But Rodriguez has been arguably Boston's next best starter with a 12-4 record, 3.53 ERA and 10.0 strikeouts per nine innings. The Sox are 5-1 in Rodriguez's last six starts, and 9-1 this season off a loss by more than 5 runs. Meanwhile, the Yankees' Masahiro Tanaka has given up 11 runs and 26 baserunners in 15 innings pitched vs. the Red Sox this season. Take Boston. AL East Game of the Week. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-19-18 | Reds v. Brewers -160 | Top | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 16 h 37 m | Show |
At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Cincinnati Reds. The Brewers picked up Gio Gonzalez after the Nats placed him on waivers, sacrificing only a couple of lesser Minor League prospects. The 32-year-old southpaw has paid immediate dividends, going 1-0 in his first two Milwaukee starts with a 2.61 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in 10 1/3 innings. Start number three will be his third straight at his new home as Gonzalez faces the Reds back at Miller Park in an effort to keep his team in the thick of the playoff race. Cincy will go with RH Matt Harvey, who they picked up from the Mets in early May for C Devin Mesoraco. Harvey has been up and down since joining the Reds, going 7-6 with a 4.13 ERA in 22 starts. But five of Harvey's seven victories -- and only one of his losses -- have come at Great America Park so the road has not been kind to the 29-year-old. This will be Harvey's first start of the season at Miller Park, but in his career, he is 0-1 with a 4.91 ERA in two starts here. Heading into Wednesday, the Reds are 7-21 in their last 28 road games, while Milwaukee is 64-32, +18 games on the money line, their last 96 as a home favorite. Take the Brewers. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-18-18 | Cardinals v. Braves -136 | Top | 8-1 | Loss | -136 | 15 h 37 m | Show |
At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the St. Louis Cardinals. One of the biggest pitching surprises of either league goes to the hill tonight for Atlanta for his 22nd start. Anibal Sanchez's performance thus far has left even the most seasoned of baseball followers scratching their heads. The 34-year-old's ERA the last three seasons with Detroit was 4.99, 5.87, and 6.41 -- not trending in the right direction as they say. So what could possibly account for his 3.01 number (along with a 1.12 WHIP) this season? The Braves don't really care just as long as Sanchez keeps doing what he's doing. They would love to have the veteran going to the mound for them in the post-season as Sanchez has a career 2.79 ERA and 1.16 WHIP combined over three playoff seasons. And it's looking more and more like the Braves will get to the post-season with tonight's game will be a good warm-up for them as the Cards may be someone they see in October. Sanchez has a career 3.26 ERA vs. St. Louis in six starts (38 2/3 innings), while his mound opponent -- Austin Gomber -- has given up 10 runs and 19 baserunners in his last two starts (covering nine innings). Take Atlanta. MLB Game of the Month. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-17-18 | Rockies v. Dodgers -152 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 20 h 23 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Colorado Rockies. In a very important game on Sunday night, the Dodgers tried relying on RH Ross Stripling, who had only had one start since August 9 and that decision didn't work out for them. The Cards shut out L.A. as Stripling lasted just 3 1/3 innings so tonight they come home for a three-game series against the team they are a half-game behind. In game one they will send LH Hyun-Jin Ryu to the mound to face the Rockies and RH Jon Gray. With all of the star power on this pitching staff, Ryu has been arguably the Dodgers' most consistent starter in the limited time he's been out on the mound. In 12 starts, the 31-year-old southpaw is 4-3 with a 2.42 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in just over 63 innings. It's true that Gray was stellar in his first nine starts after returning from a stint in Triple-A, but in his last two, he has lasted just four innings and he has a 5.14 ERA in his last three. Also, the Rockies are also a poor 10-24 on the road with Gray on the hill when the O/U line was less than 9 runs. Take the Dodgers. Mound Mismatch Massacre! As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-17-18 | Seahawks v. Bears UNDER 43 | Top | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 18 h 27 m | Show |
At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Seattle/Chicago game. The Seahawks and Bears both lost their openers last week. Chicago fell, 24-23, to Green Bay, while Seattle lost at Denver, 27-24. Certainly, NFL teams are especially desperate in Week 2 coming off a loss in Week 1, as an 0-2 start to a season is a huge hole out of which to dig, should one aspire to make the Playoffs. So, it's not surprising that match-ups between 0-1 teams have tilted toward the 'under' 57% of the time since 1980 (and 63% if both teams also happened to go 'over' in Week 1). Likewise, Monday Night Football match-ups have also gone 'under' 65.2% since 1980 if both combatants are off a loss, and each went 'over' the total in their previous game. Finally, Chicago's played 19 of its last 30 home games 'under' the total, while Seattle's gone 'under' in seven of its last eight road games off a loss. Take the 'under.' MNF Total of the Month! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-16-18 | Patriots v. Jaguars +3 | Top | 20-31 | Win | 100 | 84 h 12 m | Show |
At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Jacksonville Jaguars over New England. The Jaguars' success last season was largely a result of its 2nd-ranked defense, as it gave up just 268 points in the regular season. Jacksonville got this year off to a similar start, as it gave up just 15 points in last week's victory over the New York Giants. This week, the Jags will open their home schedule, and take on Bill Belichick's Patriots, who won against Houston in Week 1. This is a great situation to take Jacksonville, as .500 (or better) home teams with defenses that give up less than 20 ppg, have gone 117-80 ATS since 1980 if they were an underdog (or PK) vs. a non-division foe off a win. Moreover, these two teams met in last year's Playoffs in Foxboro, and the Patriots won, 24-20, but didn't cover the 7-point spread. Thus, the Jags will be looking to avenge that defeat on Sunday. Jacksonville is a super 11-3 ATS its last 14 when not laying more than three points, while New England is a poor 3-10-1 ATS off a win, if it was favored on the road vs. a team with a better defense. Take Jacksonville. NFL Game of the Month. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-16-18 | Lions +7 v. 49ers | Top | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 14 h 13 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Lions + the points over San Francisco. The Lions were thoroughly embarassed on National TV last Monday Night, when they lost, 48-17, at home to the New York Jets. However, underdogs generally bounce back after an awful Monday Night Football performance. Indeed, since 1981, underdogs (or PK) that failed to cover the spread by more than 20 points in a Monday Night game have gone 70.5% ATS, including a perfect 7-0 ATS the last seven. Take Detroit. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-16-18 | Pirates v. Brewers -162 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -162 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Brewers are a completely different looking team this season than last -- especially in the everyday lineup. But no offensive addition has been more important to this team than that of RHP Jhoulys Chacin. Chacin's first year in Milwaukee is his 10th in the Majors and it looks like it's going to be his best overall. He has tied his career mark with 14 wins (2013 - Colorado), as well as starts (31), posted a 3.54 ERA, and is eight strikeouts shy of his career-best mark of 153. Perhaps most important is the fact that Milwaukee is 20-11 when Chacin takes the mound, and that mark is the same as the leading candidates for the Cy Young (Max Scherzer and Aaron Nola). Chacin looks for that important 15th victory this afternoon against a team that he's pitched well against this season, but hasn't gotten the support from his teammates that he's deserved. By contrast to Chacin, the Pirates' RH Trevor Williams is 12-9 but his team is only 14-14 in his 2018 starts. The Bucs are 1-4 in Williams' last five starts vs. winning teams. Take the Crew. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-16-18 | Chargers v. Bills +8.5 | Top | 31-20 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Buffalo Bills + the points over Los Angeles. The Chargers blew out the Bills last season, 54-24, as a 7-point favorite. Couple that with the fact that Buffalo lost, 47-3, at Baltimore last Sunday, and it's easy to see why some might be attracted to the road team, here. But we are going to run the other way with the Bills, as they fall into 144-66 and 52-13 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams to bounce back off losses. Also, the Bills were 9-7 last year. And home teams that were a winning team the previous season, and playing with revenge from a 25-point (or worse) defeat from a loss that season to their current opponent, have cashed 65.4% since November 1983. Take the home underdog Bills. |
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09-16-18 | Colts +6 v. Redskins | Top | 21-9 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Indianapolis Colts + the points over Washington. Last week, the Redskins opened their 2018 campaign with an upset win at Arizona. Washington was a 2.5-point underdog in that game, but walloped the Cardinals, 24-6. Meanwhile, Indy fell at home, 34-23, to the Cincinnati Bengals. The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the Redskins off their impressive performance last week. But be careful, as home favorites off an upset road win to open their season have generally stumbled when matched up against foes off a SU/ATS loss. Since 1980, they've covered just 34.4% of the time. That doesn't bode well for Washington this afternoon. And nor does the fact that Washington has covered just 30 of 101 home games vs. non-winning opposition, if Washington wasn't getting 2 points in the game. Finally, Indianapolis is 33-13 ATS off a straight-up loss, including 14-2 when the Colts are getting 4+ points. Take Indy. NFL Underdog Shocker! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-16-18 | Chiefs v. Steelers -4.5 | Top | 42-37 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Steelers minus the points over Kansas City. Last week, the Chiefs went into Los Angeles, and upset the Chargers, 38-28. Meanwhile, the Steelers stumbled in their opening game -- also against a division foe -- as Pittsburgh tied Cleveland, 21-21, which certainly felt like a loss, as Cleveland was 0-16 last season. I'm going to go against KC on the road, as AFC West teams have cashed just 34.6% the past 38 years off an upset division win, if they're playing a non-division foe on the road. Also, these two teams have met three times in the past two seasons, and the Steelers have won all three games, both straight-up and ATS.  Finally, Pittsburgh is 21-6 ATS at home off a division game where it was favored, but did not win. Take the Steelers. |
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09-15-18 | Ohio State v. TCU +13.5 | Top | 40-28 | Win | 100 | 41 h 37 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the TCU Horned Frogs + the points over Ohio State. The Buckeyes didn't need their suspended head coach, Urban Meyer, in their first two games. But they may come to rue the fact he wasn't available for this game, as TCU could very well pull the outright upset. Of course, we don't need TCU to win outright -- we just need it to cover this bloated, double-digit point spread. And I think it will, as TCU enters off a 30-point win (42-12) at SMU last Friday. And that followed up another impressive effort in Week 1, when TCU shut down Southern University, 55-7. Thus, TCU's given up just 9.5 ppg, on defense. And that bodes well for them, here, as College Football underdogs of more than three points, are 68-38 ATS if they give up 9.5 ppg (or less). Take TCU. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-15-18 | Alabama v. Ole Miss +22 | Top | 62-7 | Loss | -115 | 39 h 28 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Mississippi Rebels + the points over Alabama. This is a big revenge game for Mississippi, which lost by 63 points to 'Bama last season. And that was the worst defeat by Ole Miss in the 123-year history of this series. Alabama, the defending National Champion, is now 2-0 SU/ATS this season, with blowout wins over Louisville and Arkansas State. But off those two wins, we'll fade the Crimson Tide, as defending National Champs are an awful 31.8% ATS away from home over the past 38 seasons off back to back SU/ATS wins! Even better: Ole Miss is 33-18 ATS as a revenge-minded underdog in SEC Conference games, if Ole Miss was off a win. Take Mississippi + the points. |
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09-15-18 | Texas State +10.5 v. South Alabama | Top | 31-41 | Win | 100 | 15 h 53 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Texas State Bobcats + the points over South Alabama. The Jaguars are 0-2 on the season, and a horrid 0-10 ATS their last 10 Sun Belt games as favorites of -4+ points, yet have been installed as a big favorite over Sun Belt conference rival, Texas State. That doesn't bode well for South Alabama this evening. And neither does the fact that Sun Belt home favorites of -7 (or more) points are a dreadful 70-102 ATS. Finally, the Jaguars fall into negative 31-80 and 29-104 ATS systems of mine. Take the Bobcats + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-15-18 | Eastern Michigan v. Buffalo -3 | Top | 28-35 | Win | 100 | 62 h 50 m | Show |
At 6 pm, our selection is on the Buffalo Bulls minus the points over Eastern Michigan. Both Buffalo and EMU come into this Mid-American Conference opener with 2-0 records. And each also comes into this game off upset wins: Eastern Michigan stunned Purdue, 20-19, as a 15-point underdog last week, while Buffalo pulled off a milder upset, with a 36-29 victory at Temple, as a 4-point dog. We'll go against the Eagles on this Saturday evening, as teams off upset wins by less than 10 points, as double-digit dogs, have gone just 77-137 ATS as dogs in the regular season vs. foes off a straight-up win. Additionally, the Bulls are 21-11 ATS their last 32 games at home, including 7-0 ATS their last seven when they lost the previous meeting to their opponent. And the Eagles are an awful 0-11 straight-up and 1-10 ATS off a win vs. Mid-American Conference foes also off a win. Take Buffalo. MAC Conference Game of the Month. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-15-18 | Colorado State v. Florida -20 | Top | 10-48 | Win | 100 | 60 h 52 m | Show |
At 4 pm, our selection is on the Florida Gators minus the points over Colorado State. Last week, the Gators were upset at home, 27-16, as a 13.5-point favorite by the Kentucky Wildcats. Meanwhile, the Rams pulled their own upset last week, 34-27, as a 14-point underdog over Arkansas. Can Colorado State make it two upsets in a row over an SEC Conference foe? Not likely, as underdogs of +12 or more points, off an upset win as an underdog of +12 points or more, have cashed just 19.1% over the past 38 years vs. foes off an upset loss. Yikes! Moreover, the Gators are a solid 21-7 ATS vs. non-conference foes in the regular season when priced from -3.5 to -23 points, including a perfect 8-0 ATS when the Gators were off a point spread defeat. NCAA Game of the Week. |
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09-15-18 | BYU v. Wisconsin -22 | Top | 24-21 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Wisconsin Badgers minus the points over BYU. Last week, we had our College Football Game of the Month on California against BYU, as we faded the Cougars off their upset win over Arizona as a double-digit underdog. And it was an easy win for us, as California's defense completely shut down BYU in a 21-18 victory which wasn't as close as the final score indicated. Indeed, BYU's only offensive touchdown of the game came with under a minute to play, as its first touchdown came off an interception return, so California held BYU's offense out of the end zone for the first 59 minutes of the game. Now BYU will have to travel to Madison to take on the 2-0 Badgers. These two teams met last season in Utah, and the Cougars couldn't find the end zone for that game, either, as they lost 40-6, and were held to 192 yards of offense, though it's true that BYU QB Tanner Mangum wasn't available for that game. It's also true that Wisconsin has lost both of its games against the spread. But undefeated teams off back to back ATS losses that are also winless against the spread for the season, have covered 59.2% as favorites over the past 38 years. I like Wisconsin here. Lay the points. |
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09-15-18 | Boise State v. Oklahoma State -2 | Top | 21-44 | Win | 100 | 36 h 57 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma State Cowboys minus the points over Boise State. This is a great match-up of two Top 25-ranked teams. Okie State is led by senior QB Taylor Cornelius, who has masterfully directed the Cowboys' up-tempo offense in their first two games. Cornelius has passed for 728 yards, with six touchdown passes. Last week, Oklahoma State rolled up 55 points vs. an outmatched South Alabama squad. And Okie State is 36-11 ATS off a win, in which it scored 50+ points. Meanwhile, Boise's covered just 17 of 46 road games vs. foes off a win, if Boise wasn't getting 3.5 (or more) points. And the Broncos have also just covered 36% on the road vs. foes that scored 42+ in their previous game. Take Oklahoma St. |
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09-15-18 | Georgia Tech -3 v. Pittsburgh | Top | 19-24 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 24 m | Show |
At 12:30 pm, our selection is on the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets minus the points over Pittsburgh. Last week, we played against Ga Tech, and got the $$$ when South Florida came back from a double-digit, 4th quarter deficit to upset the Jackets, 49-38. If there was a silver lining for Paul Johnson's squad, it was that it out-gained South Florida on offense, 602 yards to 426. Unfortunately, they coughed up 2 interceptions and 1 fumble (while only forcing 1 turnover on defense). And they allowed 2 kick returns to go for touchdowns. Johnson stated in his press conference that personnel changes (e.g., using more veterans) would be made to shore up his kick return defense, so that should help. It's also worth noting that Georgia Tech is 5-0 ATS the last couple of years after a game where it had a negative 2 (or worse) turnover differential. Last season, Georgia Tech blew out Pitt, 35-17, and out-yarded the Panthers 484 to 235. This will be a similar beatdown. Lay the points. |
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09-15-18 | Florida State v. Syracuse +3.5 | Top | 7-30 | Win | 100 | 56 h 51 m | Show |
At 12 Noon, on Saturday, our selection is on the Syracuse Orange + the points over Florida State. The Orange are 2-0 SU and ATS after smashing Western Michigan and Wagner the last two weekends. In contrast, Florida State has gotten out of the gate slowly, with an upset loss to ACC Conference foe Virginia Tech on Labor Day, followed by an unimpressive 36-26 win last week, at home, vs. Samford. The Seminoles have not covered an ACC Conference game in their last nine, which certainly doesn't bode well for them, here. And neither does the fact that the Orange have piled up 117 points in their first two games, as home dogs of more than 2 points, with a scoring average greater than 29.5 points, are 229-152-4 ATS! Take Syracuse. High Noon Hanging! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-14-18 | Dodgers v. Cardinals +117 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 41 m | Show |
At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over the Los Angeles Dodgers. You would have been hard-pressed to find many people who had heard of tonight's starters in this crucial game back in March. But here we are in September and both RH's Walker Buehler (Dodgers) and Jack Flaherty (Cards) have become key members of their respective rotations. There's no denying Buehler's importance to his team right now, but if there is a weakness in the 24-year-old rookie's resume, it's in his performance away from Dodger Stadium. In 11 games (10 starts) at home, Buehler is 3-3 with a 2.32 ERA and 0.87 WHIP. But in his nine road starts, he has only managed a 4.07 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. These two starters faced off less than a month ago (August 22) in L.A. and the Cards came through with a 3-1 victory (although Flaherty took a ND). Flaherty hasn't lost a start since July 31 and the Cards are 5-2 in his last seven trips to the mound. The Dodgers are 1-5 in the last six meetings while the Cards are 7-2 in their last nine games vs. NL West teams and 4-1 in Flaherty's last five vs. winning teams. Take St. Louis. MLB Dog of the Month. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.  |
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09-13-18 | Cubs -123 v. Nationals | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Washington Nationals. This afternoon, the Cubs will make a trip to DC to play a make-up a game from last weekend.  LH Mike Montgomery will go to the mound for Chicago opposite Nationals RH Joe Ross, who is making his return from Tommy John surgery. In 34 games, including 15 starts, Montgomery is 4-5 with a 3.85 ERA. However, on the road, his ERA is a full run lower than it is at Wrigley (3.43 vs. 4.43). It also isn't hurting Montgomery to have had a light workload (107 2/3 innings) this season, which should allow him to continue to perform at a high level. To wit: in the month of August, Montgomery posted a 2.70 ERA. The Cubs are also 12-4 in their last 16 games vs. a RH starter, while Washington is a poor 16-23 (minus 16 games on the money line) vs. lefties. Take Chicago. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-12-18 | Dodgers -187 v. Reds | Top | 8-1 | Win | 100 | 4 h 45 m | Show |
At 12:35 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Cincinnati Reds. Yesterday, the Reds continued their dominance over L.A., with a sixth straight win this season in the series. The 7th (and final) game of the series will be played early today at Great American Ball Park, so this will be the final chance for Los Angeles to defeat the Reds this year. I believe they will do so. Ross Stripling will get the start for the Dodgers today, though he's coming off an injury, and will be limited in his pitch count (about 45 pitches, or 3 innings). But that's not a bad thing, as the Dodgers' bullpen's ERA in day games is 3.34, with a 1.15 WHIP this season. It's true that the Reds have won Anthony Desclafani's last three starts. But it's been due to offensive production, not for Desclafani's pitching. Indeed, his ERA over his last three outings is 6.28 and he hasn't had a quality start in any of his last four games. Even worse, the Reds are an awful 8-30 (minus 15 games on the money line) as a home underdog of +175 or higher, and 1-6 behind Desclafani when he's been a home dog of +125 or more. Take Los Angeles in this early afternoon game. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie. |
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09-11-18 | Dodgers -166 v. Reds | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -166 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
At 6:40 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Cincinnati Reds. The Reds jumped all over the Dodgers and Alex Wood last night, and that's not something that L.A. can really afford right now. It's not likely to happen tonight as Hyun-Jin Ryu goes to the mound for the 12th time this season. The veteran southpaw has been very tough to hit this season, as evidenced by his 2.16 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. Last night's victory was the Reds' fifth straight over the Dodgers this season as the Dodgers haven't beaten Cincy since last June. But the Reds haven't faced Ryu in 2018 either, and he's been ultra tough against just about everyone he's gone out and pitched against. His last road start was on May 2 and Ryu threw 1 1/3 scoreless innings in that one before leaving with a groin injury. He has made five starts since returning -- all at home -- but he was pretty effective in limited road work leading up to the injury. The Dodgers are also 16-5 in Ryu's last 21 road starts vs. teams with a losing record, and they've won five straight off a loss. Take L.A. Mound Mismatch Massacre! As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-10-18 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies -142 | Top | 2-13 | Win | 100 | 17 h 2 m | Show |
At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the Colorado Rockies over the Arizona Diamondbacks. With the possible exception of the Braves (if they win the NL East) no run to a Division Pennant has been as surprising as that of the Rockies. And like Atlanta, Colorado has had many unsung heroes. But none has been bigger than German Marquez. Despite winning 11 games and finishing fifth in the NL Rookie of the Year voting last season, the 23-year-old RHP flew under the radar coming into 2018. He has already matched last year's win total and lowered that ERA to 4.05 in 28 starts. More importantly, Marquez has been red-hot down the stretch. In his last five starts, Marquez has gone 2-0 and allowed seven runs on 20 hits in 35 2/3 innings with 38 strikeouts and just seven walks. Those are ace-like numbers and two of those five starts were here at home, and they were every bit as good as his road starts. RH Zack Godley has had a good season for the D-Backs for sure, but they are 2-7 in his last nine starts vs. teams with a winning record while the Rox are 8-2 in Marquez's last 10 starts vs. the same. Take Colorado. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-10-18 | Yankees -148 v. Twins | Top | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 17 h 32 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Minnesota Twins. The Yankees were looking for a weekend sweep in Seattle against a team that they're attempting to knock out of post-season contention. But after winning the first two games, New York fell one run short on Sunday, 3-2. But the Yanks are still sitting pretty -- two-and-a-half games up on the A's for the first Wild Card spot in the AL heading into this series vs. the Twins. You can count LHP JA Happ among the group of starters whose season has taken a turn for the better since being traded from a non-contender to a contender. Happ was solid -- 10-6 with a 4.18 ERA in 20 starts -- while with the Blue Jays from April through July. But after going to the Bronx he has been lights-out -- Cy Young worthy if it was over an entire season. Since donning the pinstripes, the veteran southpaw has gong 5-0 with a 3.10 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in seven starts. The Yanks don't mind being on the road at all lately as they are 11-4 in their last 15 away from the Bronx. The Twins are 0-7 in their last seven games following a win. Take New York. |
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09-10-18 | Brewers v. Cubs -132 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -132 | 16 h 28 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Milwaukee Brewers. The Cubs were rained out in DC yesterday which allows them to skip their #5 starter and come back today with a full day of rest and LH ace Jon Lester on the mound at home. After a so-so 2017 (13-8 with a 4.33 ERA), Lester has rebounded strong this season, going 15-5 with a 3.53 ERA in 28 starts. The beginning of the second half was a struggle for Lester as he went 0-3 in his first five starts after the All Star break. But Lester has settled down lately, going 3-0 with four earned runs allowed in his last four starts covering 23 2/3 innings. He started September off on a high note, shutting out the Phillies on the road over six innings with seven strikeouts and no walks for his 15th victory. He hasn't faced the Brewers since his second start on April 5 in Milwaukee, shutting them out over six innings allowing just three hits with six strikeouts in an 8-0 beat-down for his first victory of the season. The Cubs are 5-0 in Lester's last five starts against the Brewers. Take the Cubs. |
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09-09-18 | Chiefs v. Chargers -3 | Top | 38-28 | Loss | -126 | 84 h 40 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Chargers minus the points over the Kansas City Chiefs. Both of these teams finished last season with winning records. But KC (10-6) earned a trip to the Playoffs, while the Chargers (9-7) barely missed out. And the fact that Los Angeles lost both regular season games to the Chiefs is the main reason which KC was able to edge out the Chargers for that post-season berth. I love the Chargers to avenge those two losses, as home favorites of less than 7 points (or PK) have cashed 75.5% ATS when playing with double revenge from two losses to a division rival the previous season, if our home team also had a winning record in that previous season. Take the Chargers. NFL Game of the Week. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie. |
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09-08-18 | California +3.5 v. BYU | Top | 21-18 | Win | 100 | 69 h 41 m | Show |
At 10:15 pm, our selection is on the California Golden Bears + the points over BYU. Last Saturday, the Cougars went into Arizona and upset the Wildcats, 28-23, as an 11.5-point underdog. BYU now returns home to take on another Pac-12 Conference team in the California Golden Bears, who also won last week -- by 7 -- at home vs. North Carolina. I look for BYU to have a major letdown on Saturday night, as favorites of less than 16 points have covered just 20.6 percent of the time since 1980 off an upset win (as a dog of +6 or more points) in their season opener. Additionally, Pac-12 Conference underdogs of +11 (or less) points are a solid 162-115, 58.4% ATS since 1980 in non-conference games, including 67-38 ATS vs. foes off an ATS win. Take California + the points. NCAA Football Game of the Month! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-08-18 | Cubs -140 v. Nationals | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -140 | 7 h 38 m | Show |
At 6:10 pm (approximate start time), in Game 2 of the Double Header, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over Washington. Cole Hamels will get the start for the Cubbies, and he's been perhaps the most valuable player traded for at the deadline. Indeed, since the Cubs acquired him in late July, he's a perfect 4-0 with a 1.00 ERA in seven starts with his new team. And one of those starts was against this Nationals club, which he held to one earned run in seven innings, in a 4-3 win by Chciago on August 12. I surely won't fade those numbers. But he's also been terrific on the road all season, with a 2.38 ERA and 7-2 record in his 14 road starts. Finally, the Nationals have been dreadful vs. lefties this season (14-23, minus 19 games on the moneyline). Take the Cubs in Game 2 with Hamels. |
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09-08-18 | Braves +121 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 5-4 | Win | 121 | 18 h 12 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over Arizona. We played on Atlanta as a big underdog in Game 1 of this series (and won), and then came back with the homestanding Diamondbacks last night (and also won). Tonight, we're back on the road dog, as we'll play on the Braves behind RHP Julio Teheran. This season, the Braves are a perfect 9-0 as an underdog of +150 or less with Teheran on the hill, while Arizona is a poor 21-23 (minus 12 games on the moneyline) as a favorite at home, priced from -125 to -175. Teheran's career numbers vs. Arizona are solid (4-1, 2.72 ERA, 1.20 WHIP), while Clay Buchholz has a poor 6.06 ERA and 1.89 WHIP vs. the Braves, in three starts. Take Atlanta. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-08-18 | Cincinnati v. Miami-OH | Top | 21-0 | Loss | -116 | 65 h 8 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Miami-Ohio Red Hawks over the Cincinnati Bearcats. Last week, the Bearcats went into the Rose Bowl, and upset UCLA, 26-17, as a 14-point underdog. Now, they'll come back to the Queen City to play their rival, Miami-Ohio, at Paul Brown Stadium. This is the most-played, currently active rivalry between non-conference teams, as this will be the 123rd meeting. Miami leads the series 59-56-7, but Cincinnati has won the last 12 games in a row. I look for Miami to snap this long losing streak, as revenge-minded teams have cashed 74.1% since 1982 vs. non-conference foes off an upset win as a 2-touchdown underdog! Moreover, Cincy has covered just 25 of 63 off a road win, while Miami-Ohio has gone 21-10 ATS off a SU/ATS home loss. Take the Red Hawks. NCAA Rivalry Game of the Week! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-08-18 | Cardinals -157 v. Tigers | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -157 | 16 h 13 m | Show |
At 6:10 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over the Detroit Tigers. The Cards are locked in a tight battle with the Brewers for the #1 NL Wild Card and they wouldn't be in this position without the contribution of RHP Jack Flaherty. Flaherty has come up huge for the Cards, with an 8-6 record and 2.83 ERA in 23 starts coming into tonight. In his last start, Flaherty had to face Max Scherzer and the Nats. After needing 33 pitches to get through the first inning (with a HR to Trea Turner), Flaherty settled down and was in line for the victory after holding the Nats to that single run (the bullpen blew it later on). He won't have Max Scherzer or the Nats lineup to contend with tonight as Flaherty faces the Tigers for the first time in his career. He comes into this start with a 1.50 ERA in his last three and his lineup with have the benefit of using DH tonight against LHP Matthew Boyd. The Cards are hitting .256 vs. lefties this season and Boyd is 2-4 with a 6.06 ERA in eight inter-league games (six starts) in his career. Heading into this evening, the Tigers are 5-10 in their last 15 games vs. NL teams. Take St. Louis. |
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09-07-18 | TCU v. SMU +23.5 | Top | 42-12 | Loss | -110 | 45 h 28 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the SMU Mustangs + the points over TCU. Last week, in its home opener, TCU smashed Southern U., 55-7, while SMU lost at North Texas, 46-23. This Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex rivalry has been owned by the Horned Frogs for the last six years, including a 56-36 victory last season. But even though the Mustangs haven't won outright since 2011, they've covered the point spread for three of the last six seasons (and 10 of the last 15 meetings). As with many heated rivalries, the underdog has brought home the bacon in this series, as the dog has gone 22-12-1 ATS since 1980. Even worse for TCU: double-digit Road Favorites, off a home win in their season opener the previous week, have cashed just 26% since 1980 against revenge-minded foes off a loss! Finally, SMU falls into a 126-68 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams playing with revenge from a blowout loss by more than 15 points. Take the Mustangs. Elite Info Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-07-18 | Braves v. Diamondbacks -149 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 17 h 15 m | Show |
At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Diamondbacks over Atlanta. Last night, we were on the other side, and were rewarded with a nice, extra-innings win by the underdog Braves. But we'll switch gears on Friday and take the homestanding Diamondbacks. Kevin Gausman will get the start for the Braves, and his teams have been dreadful in his road starts, as they've won just 23 of 68 (minus 21 games on the moneyline). Even worse: as an underdog, Gausman's teams have gone 2-10 this year, and 7-25 (minus 16 games on the moneyline) the past two years. Arizona's Patrick Corbin has faced Atlanta eight times, and has gone 4-1 with a 1.69 ERA. I look for him to be dominant once again. Take Arizona. MLB Game of the Week. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-06-18 | Braves +145 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 7-6 | Win | 145 | 16 h 60 m | Show |
At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Braves lost for the 3rd straight time yesterday afternoon, 9-8, to Boston. And it was a heartbreaker, as the Braves were up 7-1 in the game, as well as 8-7 in the top of the 9th, but collapsed. Tonight, Atlanta will face Arizona, another team in the Playoff hunt. The Braves will start Anibal Sanchez, while Arizona will turn to Zack Greinke. Both pitchers are in fine form, and both have similar, overall statistics. Sanchez's ERA is 2.55 in his last three starts, and it's 3.07 for the season. Similarly, Greinke's ERA is 2.70 over his last three outings, and it's 2.97 this year. Atlanta's actually been a better road team than home team this season. At home, Atlanta's a money-burning 37-34, minus 2 games on the moneyline. But on the road, it's 39-29, plus 16 games on the moneyline. Likewise, Arizona's been much better away from home (39-32, +7 games on the moneyline), than in front of its home faithful (36-32, minus 8 games on the moneyline). With Atlanta on the road, at Arizona, we'll take the Braves in this underdog role. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-05-18 | Cubs +103 v. Brewers | Top | 6-4 | Win | 103 | 15 h 18 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Milwaukee Brewers. Milwaukee has taken the first two games of this series, and is now alone in 2nd place in the National League Central division (and sits in 1st place in the Wild Card race). Tonight, Milwaukee will look to narrow the Cubs' 3-game division lead. But I favor the Cubs in this match-up. Chicago will hand the ball to LHP Jose Quintana. It's true that he's had an up-and-down season, as he's 11-9, with a 4.21 ERA. But he's been much better at night (2.93 ERA; 1.16 WHIP) than in the daytime (5.20 ERA, 1.51 WHIP). Even better: he's dominated the Brewers in his eight career starts, as he's gone 4-2, with a super 1.67 ERA. Quintana will oppose Brewers RHP Jhoulys Chacin. Unfortunately for Milwaukee, Chacin has done his best work in the afternoon, as he's 4-1, with a 2.90 ERA. This game, though, will be played at night, where Chacin's ERA is almost a full run higher (3.80). Take the Cubs. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-04-18 | Cubs -101 v. Brewers | Top | 1-11 | Loss | -101 | 16 h 41 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Milwaukee Brewers. It's not a marquee match-up, but a pair of southpaws go to the hill in Milwaukee in what could be the biggest series of the regular season for these two teams. It's hard to deny that LH Wade Miley has given the Brewers an incredible boost that virtually no one expected. But for all he's done for the Crew, Miley only has two wins in 11 starts with no victories in the month of August. Also, in his two August starts here at home, Miley allowed five runs on 15 hits with four walks in 10 innings against the Pirates and Rockies -- hardly numbers you would expect from someone with a 2.18 ERA. What that tells you is that Miley has been more lucky than good recently, at least when it comes to pitching at Miller Park. Mike Montgomery will make his second start since coming off the DL. So far as a starter, he's 4-3 with a 3.38 ERA in 14 games. He will try to avenge a loss in his only other start against the Brewers this season on June 13 despite giving up just one run over six innings. The Cubs are 19-8 in their last 27 games vs. a LH starter, and 10-2 their last 12 coming off a loss. Take Chicago. As always, good luck...AL McMordie. |
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09-04-18 | Phillies -137 v. Marlins | Top | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 15 h 41 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Miami Marlins. With the Braves playing a series against the best team in baseball (the Red Sox), the Phillies need to take advantage of a series like this one. Unfortunately, although Boston came through and thumped the Braves on Monday, the Phillies couldn't do anything and lost a tough one in the first game of this series in south Florida. And it's beginning to look more and more like Philly's only path to the post-season will be by way of an NL East title. So if ever there was a time for RHP Jake Arrieta to prove his worth, now would be it. Sure, Arrieta has a solid 3.54 ERA in a full slate of 26 starts. But that's about the only thing you could say has gone well for the biggest off-season pitching free-agent. Arrieta's record is only 9-9 (on a team that is seven games over .500) and he continues to lose in critical situations. Nobody knows how crucial the last four weeks are more than Arrieta himself, so look for him to turn it up down the stretch. The Phillies are 7-3 in Arrieta's last 10 starts on grass, and Arrieta's teams are also a super 25-7 when priced from -125 to -175 on the road. Take Philadelphia. |
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09-02-18 | Mariners v. A's -128 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 14 h 27 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Oakland A's over Seattle. The A's have been fantastic this season when favored, as they're 44-20, +17 games on the moneyline (and 29-12 in this situation at home). This afternoon, they'll hand the ball to Edwin Jackson, who is 3-2 at home, with a 2.88 ERA. In stark contrast, Felix Hernandez has a losing record (8-11) this season, including 4-6 on the road, with a 7.30 ERA. And the Mariners are 1-7 as an underdog of +150 or less with him on the hill. Clearly, Hernandez's best days are in the rear view mirror. Jackson's a perfect 4-0 in his four career starts vs. Seattle, with a 1.26 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP. Take the A's. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie. |
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09-02-18 | Cubs v. Phillies -147 | Top | 8-1 | Loss | -147 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
At 1:35 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over Chicago. Aaron Nola has been spectacular of late. In his last six starts, he's given up 1 earned run or less in five of the games. And his ERA over his last four starts is 0.64. He'll look to keep it going this afternoon against a Chicago squad which is a poor 28-42, minus 9 games on the moneyline, its last 70 as an underdog. And with the Phillies coming in at 12-0 this season as a home favorite with Nola on the hill, we'll take the home team this afternoon. |
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09-02-18 | Brewers -108 v. Nationals | Top | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
At 1:35 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over Washington. The Brewers caght a break today when the start of Washington's ace pitcher, Max Scherzer, was moved to Monday -- against Milwaukee's rival, St. Louis. There's no doubt that the Brewers will be happy to see Jefry Rodriguez on the mound, instead. The Brewers will hand the ball to Junior Guerra, who has a solid 3.50 ERA in his daytime starts this season. And in his lone start vs. the Nationals this season, Guerra gave up just one earned run, and four hits, in six innings. Milwaukee's a super 39-21 when priced as a favorite of -150 or less, including 7-2 behind Guerra this season. Take Milwaukee. |
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09-01-18 | Diamondbacks +153 v. Dodgers | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 4 m | Show |
At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Diamondbacks over the Los Angeles Dodgers. As goes Clayton Kershaw, so go the L.A. Dodgers. When you look at the southpaw ace's ERA of 2.39, you might assume that all has been right with the three-time Cy Young award winner this season. But you'd be wrong. With only 124 innings pitched, and just six wins into September, Kershaw is having a sub-par season for sure. By now, the veteran southpaw usually has 15 or more wins. And if he was doing that this year, the Dodgers would likely have a pretty comfortable lead in the NL West. He'll get start number 21 tonight at home against a team with which he's very familiar in the Diamondbacks.  It will be LH ace vs. LH ace as Arizona sends out Patrick Corbin. The 29-year-old D-Backs hurler has some pretty strong numbers in 2018 (10-5 with a 3.15 ERA in 27 starts), and he held Los Angeles to just two runs over 18 1-3 innings pitched in three starts this season. In contrast, Kershaw has given up 5 runs in 19 innings pitched vs. Arizona in his three 2018 starts. Take the Diamondbacks. |
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09-01-18 | Mariners -109 v. A's | Top | 8-7 | Win | 100 | 3 h 56 m | Show |
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Mariners over Oakland. James Paxton has given up just 1 run in 7 1-3 innings vs. the A's this season, and is 3-0 lifetime vs. Oakland with a 3.30 ERA. Tonight, the Mariners have been installed as a road favorite, and they're a solid 31-18 this season when favored -150 or less.  Take Seattle. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-01-18 | Rockies -145 v. Padres | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 18 h 35 m | Show |
At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the Colorado Rockies over San Diego. The Padres are a horrid 39-73 as an Underdog this season, including 12-32 (minus 18 games on the moneyline as a home underdog). Tonight, they'll face Jon Grey, who has a solid 2.67 career ERA in 14 starts vs. San Diego. Grey's mound opponent will be Robbie Erlin, who has an ERA of 7.89 and a WHIP of 1.80 in five career starts vs. the Rockies. Take Colorado. |
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09-01-18 | Middle Tennessee State +4.5 v. Vanderbilt | Top | 7-35 | Loss | -112 | 136 h 30 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders + the points over Vanderbilt. This will be the final season that Middle Tennessee coach Rick Stockstill will have his son, Brent Stockstill, as the team's starting QB. And his son is one of 16 returning starters (eight offensive; eight defensive) for the Blue Raiders (in contrast, Vandy returns just 12 starters). Stockstill's accomplished a lot in his MTSU career as the QB, including setting school records for touchdowns (77), passing yards per game (288.7) and completions (729). However, one thing he's never done is defeat Vanderbilt. Last season, the Commodores blew out Middle Tennessee, 28-6, as a 2.5-point favorite. And they also defeated the Blue Raiders, 47-24, two seasons ago, and 17-13 the year before that. We'll grab the points with Middle Tennessee in a revenge role on Saturday night, as they fall into a 54-23 ATS revenge system of mine. Take Middle Tennessee. NCAA Football Game of the Week. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-01-18 | Michigan +1.5 v. Notre Dame | Top | 17-24 | Loss | -110 | 120 h 35 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Michigan Wolverines over Notre Dame. When these two midwest rivals last met, the Fighting Irish whitewashed Michigan, 31-0. I look for Michigan to avenge that defeat, as teams that were shutout in their previous meeting have gone 128-93-6 ATS if they weren't an underdog of 4+ points in the current game. Moreover, in a season's opening game for both teams, it's been extremely profitable to play on teams that were shutout in the previous meeting, as they've gone 61.6% ATS the past 38 seasons, including a perfect 8-0 ATS since 2012. Finally, the team that lost the previous meeting in this series has gone 20-7 ATS since 1981, including a perfect 11-0 ATS when priced from PK to +7. Take Michigan. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-01-18 | SMU v. North Texas -4 | Top | 23-46 | Win | 100 | 121 h 2 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the North Texas Mean Green minus the points over SMU. Last year, the Mean Green lost by 22 points to their Dallas Metroplex rival, SMU. And that was the 3rd straight loss suffered by North Texas to SMU over the last three seasons. But SMU was favored in each of those games. And the favorite has actually won and covered four straight in this series. This season, the Mean Green have been installed as the favorite, and North Texas has cashed 64.7% the past seven years as a home favorite (and 60% the past 18 years). Additionally, SMU has been very poor as a road underdog or 10 points or less (or PK), as it's covered just 9 of 42 games since 1994, including 0-12 ATS vs. non-conference foes. Finally, North Texas falls into a 34-12 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams with double-revenge. Take the Mean Green. Perfect 10 Club play. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-01-18 | Washington v. Auburn -1.5 | Top | 16-21 | Win | 100 | 110 h 57 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Auburn Tigers over Washington. It's easy to forget just how good the Auburn Tigers were last season, given how they finished (with two straight losses). But at the end of the last year's regular season, the Tigers were ranked 2nd in the nation, and owned wins over both Alabama (26-14) and Georgia (40-17) -- the two teams that eventually competed in the Championship Game. Unfortunately for Auburn, it had to defeat Georgia a second time in the SEC Championship game, but fell to the Bulldogs, 28-7. And it, not surprisingly, had a letdown in the Peach Bowl and lost to Central Florida, 34-27. But it's a new season, and the Tigers enter it ranked 9th in the AP's Poll, and 10th in the Coaches' Poll. On Saturday afternoon, they'll play the 6th-ranked Washington Huskies at a neutral (but SEC friendly) site -- Atlanta's Mercedes-Benz Stadium. The SEC has long been the best football conference in the country, while the Pac-12 Conference hasn't won a National Championship in 14 seasons (the longest, current stretch of failure among the Power 5 Conferences). With that as a backdrop, it's awfully tough to go against a great SEC team at this price. Indeed, since 1981, SEC teams that had a win percentage of .700 (or better) the previous season, have gone 46-12 straight-up and 39-18-1 ATS in their opening game, if against a non-conference foe, and priced from +3.5 to -21 points (and 16-5 ATS if their opponent also had a win percentage the previous year of .700+). Take Auburn. NCAA Elite Info Play. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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08-31-18 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -127 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 18 h 40 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over Arizona. The Diamondbacks will hand the ball to Zack Greinke tonight. Greinke has long been the Majors' best pitcher when installed as a favorite (and especially at home). Unfortunately, his team is a road underdog tonight. And Greinke's teams have been dismal in his career as a road underdog, as they're 28-56, minus 19 games on the moneyline (compared to 207-128, +42 games on the moneyline, when not a road underdog). Similarly, Hyun-Jin Ryu has performed much better in his career as a favorite (39-23, +6 games on the moneyline) than as an underdog (15-16). This season, Ryu's Home ERA is 1.57, with a 0.94 WHIP. Even worse for Arizona: it's a dismal 22-33 (minus 15 games on the moneyline) vs. winning teams this season, and 8-16 (minus nine games on the moneyline) vs. starting pitchers with an ERA of 3.20 or less. Take Los Angeles. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie. |
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08-31-18 | Pirates v. Braves -113 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -113 | 15 h 5 m | Show |
At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over Pittsburgh. The Braves lost last night to Mike Montgomery and the Cubs. And that continued the Braves' trend this season where they've dominated RHPs (56-37, +21 games on the moneyline), but have burned money vs. LHPs (18-22, minus 4 games on the moneyline). Tonight, the good news for the Braves and SP Anibal Sanchez is that they'll face Pirates RHP Jameson Taillon. Additionally, Pittsburgh is a poor 28-50 as a road underdog priced at +150 or less. Take Atlanta. |
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08-31-18 | Brewers v. Nationals -117 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -117 | 15 h 36 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Washington Nationals over Milwaukee. Tanner Roark will get the start for the Nationals tonight, and he's been terrific over his last seven starts. The Nats are 6-1 in those seven games, and Roark's given up just 8 earned runs and 38 baserunners in 44 2/3 innings (1.61 ERA; 0.85 WHIP). One of those seven starts was against these Brewers, and all Roark did was strike out 11 batters in 8 scoreless innings. In his career vs. Milwaukee, Roark has a 4-1 record in six starts, with a 2.32 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. Take Washington. |
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08-30-18 | Cowboys +4 v. Texans | Top | 6-14 | Loss | -107 | 40 h 37 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Cowboys plus the points over Houston. Last week, the Cowboys were blown out at home, 27-3, by the Arizona Cardinals. And that loss dropped Dallas to 0-3 this Preseason. I look for the Cowboys to play a much better game on this Thursday, as teams that lost, and scored less than six points in their previous game, have gone 91-64-4 ATS in the Preseason, including a super 37-12 ATS if that embarrassing performance came in front of their home fans.  And winless underdogs of +4 or more points have gone 47-29-2 ATS off a double-digit loss. Take Dallas. NFL Game of the Week. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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08-30-18 | Browns v. Lions OVER 35.5 | Top | 35-17 | Win | 100 | 38 h 13 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the 'over' in the Cleveland Browns/Detroit Lions game. Last week, the Browns shut out the Philadelphia Eagles, 5-0. And Cleveland has now gone 'under' in each of its first three preseason games. The knee-jerk reaction might be to look for another low-scoring game on this Thursday. But consider that teams have gone OVER the total 69% of the time over the past 36 Preseasons after being involved in a game that produced less than 12 points. And this game also falls into a 2nd Preseason Totals System of mine which is 37-19 since 1983. Take the 'Over.' NFL Preseason Total of the Year. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie |
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08-29-18 | Nationals v. Phillies -122 | Top | 6-8 | Win | 100 | 16 h 52 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over Washington. It's likely going to be "too little, too late" for the Washington Nationals, who have won three straight, but still sit six games out of the Playoff picture. Tonight, Washington will face Jake Arrieta and the 2nd place Phillies. Arrieta's been at his best here, at home, as his ERA is 2.88, with a 1.13 WHIP. In contrast, Gio Gonzalez' road ERA is 4.35 with a 1.39 WHIP. Even worse: in Gonzalez's last three starts, he's 0-3, with an 8.04 ERA. And he's 1-9 his last 10 decisions! Take the Phillies. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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08-29-18 | A's v. Astros -160 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Oakland Athletics. If there's a series in MLB right now bigger than this one between the Astros and A's then somebody should let us know. The A's have closed the gap between them and the defending champs like a freight train over the last few weeks and now they are everyone's favorite dark horse in the AL. But with success often comes setbacks, and the A's just found out that two of their best starters have landed on the DL (Brett Anderson and Sean Manaea) so things won't get any easier for them. This afternoon it will be RHP Trevor Cahill -- another one of their pleasant surprises -- taking the mound for the 17th time this season. The biggest problem for Cahill will likely be the venue he's pitching in. That's because the 30-year-old veteran has one of the strongest home field biases in the Majors. In eight starts at the Coliseum, Cahill is 4-0 with a 0.85 ERA. However, in the same number of starts in opposing ballparks, he is 1-3 with an ugly 6.92 number. In two starts at Minute Maid this season, Cahill is 0-1 with a 5.59 ERA. Take the Astros. |
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08-29-18 | Mets v. Cubs -183 | Top | 10-3 | Loss | -183 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
At 2:20 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the New York Mets. Alec Mills is a 26-year-old RHP who was drafted by the Royals in 2012 and then traded to the Cubs for a minor league player in a move that went virtually unnoticed in 2017. But Mills has put up some pretty impressive minor league numbers over the past five years and could prove critical to the Cubs post-season push over the next 30+ days. After shutting out the Cards in a two-inning relief appearance on July 27, Mills finally made his first MLB start last Friday and he made the most of it. Over 5 2/3 innings, Mills held a pretty good Reds lineup to one run on three hits while punching out eight hitters with just one walk. That start, along with the fact that Tyler Chatwood and Mike Montgomery remain sidelined with injuries, has given Mills another chance to stick in the back end of this very unsettled rotation (Yu Darvish is also out for the rest of the season). Heading into Wednesday's continuation of last night's suspended game (scheduled to start before this game, at 1 pm), the Mets are 0-8 in the last eight meetings with the Cubs. Take Chicago. |
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08-28-18 | Rockies -130 v. Angels | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Colorado Rockies over the Anaheim Angels. The Rockies suffered a tough loss last night when their bullpen gave up five runs in the bottom of the 8th after moving out in front by two runs in the top of the inning. Tonight, the Rockies will hand the ball to LHP Kyle Freeland, who has a 1.91 ERA in seven career interleague starts (the Rockies went 6-1 in those games). Even better: Colorado is 9-1 in Freeland's last 10 starts, while the Angels are a poor 16-24 (minus 12 games on the moneyline) vs. southpaws this season. Take Colorado. |
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08-28-18 | Marlins v. Red Sox -258 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 8 h 25 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over Miami. The Red Sox come into this home game in a mini-slump. Boston has dropped its last three games, but has been installed as a big favorite vs. Jose Urena and the Marlins on Tuesday. Boston is a jaw-dropping 51-9 (+29 games on the moneyline) its last 60 games as a favorite priced at -200 (or higher), and 28-10 (+17 games on the moneyline) off back-to-back losses. Take the Red Sox. |
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08-28-18 | White Sox v. Yankees -231 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 20 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over Chicago. In his career, James Shields has not been able to step up in class, when installed as a big underdog. Indeed, Shields' teams are an awful 9-42 (minus 27 games on the moneyline) with Shields on the hill when priced at +150 or higher. Lance Lynn has a career record of 3-1 (in six starts), with a 2.15 ERA vs. the White Sox. Take the Yankees. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie. |
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08-27-18 | Rockies -137 v. Angels | Top | 7-10 | Loss | -137 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Colorado Rockies over the Los Angeles Angels. After a bit of a breakout season in 2017, LHP Jonathan Gray has had a bit of a glass-half-full/glass-half-empty campaign this year. On the half-full side, the Rockies strikeout artist has hit 10 wins for the third season in a row and will reach a career high if he can be victorious just once more. But on the half-empty side, Gray slumped badly in the first half and, although he has pitched much better since the break, his ERA still sits at 4.67. But Gray has yet to lose a game in the second half (2-0 with a sparkling 2.83 ERA and 0.87 WHIP in six starts), and he's lowered his ERA a full run from where it sat in mid-July. Now, if Gray can just put it all together for a full season, he could find himself among the NL elite pitchers. He has a great shot at win number 11 tonight against the Angels, who have dropped six straight, and who have lost all but one of their last nine games. The Rox will also get the added benefit of using a DH tonight and Gray is 5-1 with a 3.18 ERA in 10 career inter-league starts. Take Colorado. MLB High Roller Winner. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-26-18 | Cardinals v. Cowboys +3 | Top | 27-3 | Loss | -115 | 16 h 20 m | Show |
At 8 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Dallas Cowboys + the points over Arizona. The Cardinals come into Dallas with a 2-0 record after upsetting the Saints last week, 20-15, as a 6-point underdog. In contrast, the Cowboys are 0-2 this preseason after their upset loss to the Bengals. The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the undefeated Cardinals. But consider that 0-2 teams, like Dallas, have cashed 68.1% over the last 36 years in the Preseason as an underdog, when matched up against undefeated foes. Even better: if our 'play-against' team (here, Arizona) is off an upset win, then our 68.1% ATS angle zooms to 82% ATS since 1983. Take Dallas. NFL Elite Info Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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08-26-18 | Mariners v. Diamondbacks -176 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Diamondbacks over Seattle. There has been no better pitcher "in Vegas" as a home favorite than Zack Greinke. Indeed, in his career, his teams are 116-45 in this role (+47 games on the moneyline). This afternoon, Greinke will match up against Mike Leake, who brings a career 4.96 ERA vs. the Diamondbacks (over 11 starts) into this contest. In contrast, Greinke is 5-1 vs. Seattle (in 10 starts), with a 1.96 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. Take the Diamondbacks. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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08-26-18 | Rangers v. Giants -156 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Giants over the Texas Rangers. It's no secret that the Giants' season has been filled with mostly disappointments. But one pleasant surprise has been the performance of Derek Holland. The Giants signed the 31-year-old LH to a minor league contract in February and initially at least, it wasn't clear what the Giants would get from Holland. After his first 10 starts (May 25), Holland was just 2-6 with a 4.72 ERA. But over the last three months, he has been a key member of the Giants' staff, stabilizing an injury-plagued rotation. Holland has lowered his ERA by more than a run since the end of May and he hasn’t lost a start since July 10 (eight starts). Tonight, Holland will face the team which drafted him in the 25th round in 2016, and for which he played the first eight seasons of his MLB career. It will be his third career start vs. the Rangers as he faced them twice when he was with the White Sox last season. Holland has allowed two or fewer runs in six of his last seven starts and the Giants are 6-0 in his last six starts vs. teams with losing records. Take San Fran. |
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08-26-18 | Red Sox +113 v. Rays | Top | 1-9 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over Tampa Bay. The Red Sox lost to Tampa Bay yesterday, and are in danger of being swept by the Rays. Still, there's no reason for anxiety in Boston, as the BoSox are firmly in control of the division lead, with a 7-game cushion over the Yankees. Today, Boston will hand the ball to Nate Eovaldi, who started the season for these Rays. So, Eovaldi will be extremely comfortable pitching here, at Tropicana Field. Indeed, his ERA at home for the Rays this season was 2.11. Even better: Eovaldi is 4-0 in five daytime starts, with a 0.82 ERA and 0.48 WHIP. And the Red Sox are 29-6 this season in day games! Take Boston. MLB Road Warrior Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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08-26-18 | Phillies -117 v. Blue Jays | Top | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 34 m | Show |
At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Toronto Blue Jays. Vincent Velasquez gets the start this afternoon for the Phillies, and he's been super away from home this season (2.97 ERA; 1.26 WHIP). He'll face RHP Marco Estrada, who has a 4.91 ERA at home this season (and a 6.23 ERA over his last three starts). The Phils have been at their best when favored this year (40-27, +5 games on the moneyline), while Toronto has been a money-burner as a home underdog (9-16, -4 games on the moneyline) this season. Take the Phillies. |
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08-25-18 | Cardinals v. Rockies -141 | Top | 1-9 | Win | 100 | 16 h 36 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Colorado Rockies over St. Louis.  The Rockies had their 3-game win streak snapped last night, but they're still 13-3 their last 16 games. We'll take the Rockies to start a new streak tonight against John Gant and the Cardinals. Gant has a losing 3-5 record on the season, and has an ERA north of 4 runs per game. Meanwhile, German Marquez has dominated the Cards in his career, with a 2-0 record, 2.53 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP. And the Rockies are 13-6 as a home favorite with Marquez on the mound. Take Colorado. |
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08-25-18 | Mariners v. Diamondbacks -160 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -160 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Diamondbacks over the Seattle Mariners. A couple of veteran lefthanders pitching for Division Contenders go to the hill tonight as the Mariners visit Arizona for the first series since 2012. Wade LeBlanc has had a very nice season with the M's -- his second stint with them -- going 7-3 with a 4.04 ERA in 25 games (20 starts). But you have to wonder if the party isn't coming to an end for Leblanc, who has a career record of 37-38 with an ERA of 4.34. LeBlanc has a 1-2 record and 6.75 ERA over four August starts, bringing his second half numbers to 2-2 with a 5.13 ERA after going 5-1 and 3.63 in the first half. In his last start, the southpaw allowed seven runs (five earned) in 4 1/3 innings vs. the Dodgers on August 17. And more relevant to tonight is the fact that Leblanc is 3-3 with a 4.47 ERA in 13 career games (nine starts) vs. the D-backs. Seattle doesn't get the use of its DH tonight, something it's relied on all season. Heading into Saturday, Arizona is 7-3 in its last 10 inter-league home games vs. teams with a winning record. Take the D-Backs. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-25-18 | Saints +2.5 v. Chargers | Top | 36-7 | Win | 100 | 88 h 53 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Saints + the points over the Los Angeles Chargers. Both teams come into this game with 1-1 records. The Chargers opened the preseason with a road defeat at Arizona, but bounced back last week with a 10-point home win vs. Seattle. In contrast, New Orleans opened with an upset road win at Jacksonville, but fell at home last week, 20-15, as a 4.5-point favorite vs. Arizona. One of the things I love to do is play on underdogs off upset losses vs. foes off double-digit wins. Our underdogs have covered 61% since 1983, including a perfect 8-0 ATS the past 4 years. Take New Orleans. NFL Preseason Game of the Year! As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-25-18 | Falcons +3 v. Jaguars | Top | 6-17 | Loss | -114 | 65 h 40 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons + the points over Jacksonville. We played on the Jaguars last week, and they rewarded us with an upset win over the Minnesota Vikings. The Jags now return home and have been installed as a favorite over Atlanta, which lost by 14 points to KC. Unfortunately for the Jags, NFL teams off upset wins have covered just 10 of 38 preseason games vs. foes off double-digit losses, if our home team wasn't getting 3+ points. Take Atlanta. NFL High Roller Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie |
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08-25-18 | Red Sox -148 v. Rays | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -148 | 7 h 19 m | Show |
At 6:10 pm, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over the Tampa Bay Rays. Two seasons removed from his AL Cy Young winning campaign and Rick Porcello is back. The 29-year-old RHP won't win the Cy Young this season but he has one of the best records in the league 15-6 in 26 starts so far with an outside chance to hit 20 wins for the second time in his career. Start number 27 will come this evening in St. Pete, a place where Porcello has had quite a bit of success in his career. In 14 starts at Tropicana Field, Porcello is 8-4 with a 2.72 ERA in just under 93 innings. Those eight wins are the third-most that Porcello has logged at an ball park in the league (Fenway and Comerica). Porcello can not only help the Red Sox today but he will also likely be heavily relied upon in the upcoming post-season. He's also looking to bounce back after a rare rough outing for him last time. Porcello was not happy after three mistake pitches led to his demise last time out in a 5-4 loss to the Indians. Despite getting drubbed here last night the Sox are still 11-5 in the last 16 meetings with the Rays. Take Boston against the Rays and Ryan Yarbrough. |
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08-25-18 | Phillies -121 v. Blue Jays | Top | 6-8 | Loss | -121 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Toronto Blue Jays. The Jays beat the Phillies at home last night by a 4-2 margin, thereby playing the role of inter-league spoiler. With the loss, the Phillies have now fallen three games behind the Braves in the race for the NL East which many people thought would have included the Nationals. No doubt, the home team will look to turn the tables today behind 25-year-old RHP Nick Pivetta. Pivetta has had a solid, if not spectacular sophomore campaign, going 7-10 with a 4.66 ERA in 26 games including 25 starts coming into this afternoon. Pivetta -- a native Canadian -- faces the Blue Jays for the second time in his career and the second time this season. Despite their loss on Friday, the Phillies are still 8-3 in their last 11 inter-league games vs. teams with a losing record and 5-0 in their last five inter-league road games vs. the same. The Phillies are also 11-3 in Pivetta's last 14 starts following a team loss in their previous game. Take Philadelphia. |
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08-25-18 | Texans +3.5 v. Rams | Top | 20-21 | Win | 100 | 83 h 18 m | Show |
At 4 pm, our selection is on the Houston Texans over the Los Angeles Rams. This is a great match-up of two of the surprise teams from last season. And both certainly harbor hopes to reach the Super Bowl this season. Last week, Houston moved to 2-0 with a 16-13 victory vs. San Francisco. And the Rams also won, 19-15, vs. Oakland, which evened L.A.'s record at 1-1. Houston has owned the 2nd best defense in the Preseason, as it's given up just 11.5 ppg (the Jets' defense is #1, at 7.5 ppg). We'll grab the points with Houston, as undefeated underdogs, with a 2-0 (or better) record, have cashed 74.5% since 1991 vs. foes off a SU/ATS win (and 79% ATS if our underdog's defensive PPG average was 17 or less points). Take Houston. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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08-24-18 | Broncos +3 v. Redskins | Top | 29-17 | Win | 100 | 64 h 49 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the Denver Broncos + the points over Washington. We played on the Redskins last week, and were rewarded with a win and cover vs. the NY Jets. That leveled Washington's record at 1-1, while the Broncos fell to 0-2 with a 1-point upset loss at home to Chicago. Denver will now play its first road game of the Preseason. And winless teams have cashed 61% since 1983 in Week 3 as road underdogs. It's certainly true that the Broncos' defense has given up 66 points in its two games this season. And the knee-jerk reaction might be to go against a team with such a porous defense. However, consider that NFL Teams off back to back SU/ATS losses, that own a defensive PPG average of 30+ points, have cashed 78.1% over the past 35 years. Take Denver. NFL Elite Info Winner. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie. |
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08-23-18 | Eagles +3 v. Browns | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -105 | 40 h 22 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Eagles + the points over Cleveland. The Eagles come into this game off back-to-back blowout losses. Last week, they fell, 37-20, to New England. And they lost 31-14, in Week 1, to the Steelers. Philly got a scare last week when QB Nick Foles sustained an injury. But he's been cleared to play vs. the Browns, and will get the start on Thursday night. Over the last 35 years, NFL teams, off back to back games where they failed to cover each by 10+ points, have cashed 68% vs. foes off a SU loss. With the Browns, indeed, off a loss last week to the Bills, we'll grab the points with Philly. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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08-22-18 | Padres v. Rockies -231 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 19 h 0 m | Show |
At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the Colorado Rockies over San Diego. The Rockies' 4-game win streak was snapped by the Padres last night. But I love Colorado to bounce back tonight, as they've won each of Jon Gray's last eight starts, dating back to June 22. And Gray's last six starts were all against Playoff contenders (Braves, Dodgers, Brewers, Cardinals, Astros, Mariners). Tonight, it's a much different story, as Gray will face the cellar-dwelling Padres, who are 50-78 on the season -- the worst record in the National League. Gray has given up 1 run or less in four of his last five starts vs. San Diego. And he'll have a huge advantage on the mound tonight vs. Jacob Nix.  The Padres rookie was bombed in his last start by the Diamondbacks, as he gave up 5 runs and couldn't make it through the first inning. Take Colorado. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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08-22-18 | Astros v. Mariners +130 | Top | 10-7 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 31 m | Show |
At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Mariners over Houston. In what many thought would be an easy ride for the Astros to another AL West title, not only do they now have to contend with the Oakland A's, but the pesky Mariners are also still very much in the hunt.  RHP Charlie Morton -- who really came through for the 'Stros down the stretch last season -- will make his 25th start today. Through little fault of his own, Morton has only notched one victory in his last six starts going back to before the break. The primary reason, of course, is that the Houston offense has only managed to put 19 runs across in those six games. The Astros did win last night here, but only scored three runs. This afternoon, they'll have to face LHP Marco Gonzales, who has a 2.71 ERA in his 11 home starts this season. Houston has struggled this season on the moneyline vs. Lefties (28-20, minus 10 games on the moneyline), while Seattle has excelled vs. Righties (51-34, +18 games on the moneyline). Finally, Morton's teams are a poor 19-40 (minus 24 games on the moneyline) in his daytime starts. Take Seattle as the home dog. |
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08-22-18 | Reds v. Brewers -235 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Cincinnati Reds. Just a handful of games separate the top three spots in the NL Central and the Brewers have to be thrilled about the fact that they are still in the hunt for a Wild Card and a Pennant with just about five weeks to go. The Crew features the most surprising starting rotation in the NL -- very similar to the Oakland A's in the American League. Tonight it will be rookie RHP Freddy Peralta making his 13th start of the season. Peralta won't challenge Juan Soto, Brian Anderson, or Ronald Acuna for NL Rookie of the Year honors, but he's had a very successful run for a 21-year-old.  The first inning remained a problem for Peralta in his most recent start against the Cardinals, when he allowed two runs to bump his ERA to 9.00 in 12 opening innings this season. But the Brewers have been working with Peralta on his mechanics so I expect an improved performance this afternoon. The Reds will go with RHP Robert Stephenson (0-1 and 7.94 in two starts this season) and they are 2-6 in in his last eight road starts. Take the Brewers. |
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08-21-18 | Cardinals v. Dodgers -163 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -163 | 17 h 46 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the St. Louis Cardinals. How ironic would it be if Hyun-Jin Ryu is the pitcher that gets the Dodgers to the promised land this season? The 31-year-old LH Japanese import has been a huge disappointment over the last two seasons, heading to the DL multiple times for various ailments. True to form this season, Ryu started strong in April, but hit the shelf after a month of action due to a groin injury. Ryu returned on August 15 and fortunately for the Dodgers, he looked like he never missed a beat, tossing six shutout innings against San Francisco while allowing just three hits and striking out six Giants with no walks. He gets a chance to prove that performance was no fluke tonight for his team which is in the midst of the tightest division race in the Majors. The Cards will send rookie RH Daniel Poncedeleon to the mound for his second MLB start as Luke Weaver has been relegated to the bullpen for now. But despite a successful starting debut (7 IP, 0 ER, 0 H), Poncedeleon is an unproven commodity, especially against a lineup like the Dodgers'. Take L.A. |
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08-21-18 | Angels +200 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 15 m | Show |
At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Anaheim Angels over Arizona. The Angels have been installed as a huge underdog, notwithstanding the fact that SP Felix Pena's ERA in his four road starts is 1.31. Moreover, the Diamondbacks are a money-burning 25-25 (minus 12 games on the moneyline) as a home favorite this season. Take the Angels. |
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08-21-18 | Braves v. Pirates +107 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 18 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Pirates over the Atlanta Braves. Knowing that they didn't have to wait any longer to make a run at the NL Title, the Braves made some deadline trades, and it seemed like their favorite hunting ground for pitching was in Baltimore. Atlanta acquired both RPs Brad Brach and Darren O'Day and SP Kevin Gausman from the O's in two separate deals and with Nick Markakis already on the squad, it must seem like Baltimore south around the Braves' locker room lately. Gausman will get his fourth start with the Braves tonight and while with the Birds, the RH faced the Bucs twice, going 0-1 with an 8.44 ERA in 10 2/3 innings. RHP Ivan Nova continues to excel at PNC Park.  Nova allowed only one run in 6 2/3 innings here on Thursday night, but lost to the Cubs, 1-0. The Pirates are 5-2 over his past seven starts, and Nova has posted a 3.72 ERA during that stretch. He owns a 3.32 ERA in 11 home starts this season. Speaking of 1-0, the Braves took game one of this series by that score on Monday so look for the Pirates to exact some revenge tonight. Take Pittsburgh. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-21-18 | Indians v. Red Sox -142 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -142 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over the Cleveland Indians. In what could be a preview of the ALCS, the Indians came into Fenway yesterday for the first time this season with a showdown of the last two AL Cy Young winners (Porcello and Kluber). Tonight in game two, the pitching match-up is without those marquee names, but at least one of these starters has been putting up Cy Young-type numbers here at home recently. The Sox needed some pitching help, so they traded for RH Nathan Eovaldi at the deadline and the 28-year-old proceeded to get very comfortable in his new home. His first two starts were at home and all Eovaldi did in those was not allow a run in 15 innings while notching a pair of victories. His next two starts were on the road -- one of which was ugly while his last one (in Philly) was a fairly effective five innings. He's back home tonight and looking to extend his Fenway success against a team which he has dominated in the past (Eovaldi is 2-1 with a 2.70 ERA in three career games (two starts) vs. the Tribe). Take Boston. |
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08-21-18 | Phillies +132 v. Nationals | Top | 4-10 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over Washington. The Phillies have been installed as an underdog at Washington. And that bodes well, given that the Nationals are a poor 16-21 (minus 14 games on the moneyline) the past two seasons as a favorite with Roark on the mound. Roark's home ERA this season is 5.00 (compared to 3.24 on the road), while Velasquez's road ERA is 3.02 (compared to 4.99 at home). Take Philadelphia. |
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08-20-18 | White Sox v. Twins UNDER 9.5 | Top | 8-5 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 56 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Twins and Chicago White Sox 'under' the total. Stephen Gonsalves is rated as the #4 prospect in the Minnesota Twins system. The southpaw pitcher has been in professional ball since 2013, but he is just 23-years-old which gives you some idea of how talented Gonsalves was even as a high-schooler in San DIego. With the injury to Ervin Santana, Gonsalves will make his MLB debut tonight at his new home ballpark against the Chicago White Sox. Although the lefty isn't a particularly hard-thrower, he's had a very solid Minor League career, posting a 2.46 ERA in 113 games (108 starts) covering 599 innings throughout all the various levels from rookie ball to AAA. So clearly Gonsalves deserves this opportunity. RHP Lucas Giolito came into the season with high expectations after a successful sophomore campaign in Chicago. But 2018 has been a huge disappointment with Giolito going 8-9 with a 6.15 ERA in 24 starts. However, he's been much better on the road (4.54 ERA) this season than at home (8.17 ERA). Not surprisingly, eight of his 12 home starts this season have gone 'over' the total, while just one of his 14 road starts the past two seasons have gone 'over' (10 'unders'; 1 'over'; and 3 'pushes'). Take the 'under.' |
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08-19-18 | Mets v. Phillies -185 | Top | 8-2 | Loss | -185 | 15 h 29 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the New York Mets. The Nationals must be pretty upset that the upstart Phillies have looked like a better team than them pretty much the whole season. So imagine how much more upset they'll be if RHP Nick Pivetta has a great final two months and helps the Phillies get to the post-season (while DC sits at home)? Pivetta was a Nats' draft pick in 2013 but they traded him two years later to the Phils for closer Jonathan Papelbon, who turned out to be just as much of a cancer on their team as he was in Philadelphia. Now Pivetta looks like he's thriving, having thrown three quality starts this month, allowing just three earned runs in 18 August innings. He was dominant last time out against the best team in baseball (Boston) but simply didn't get the run support and ended up taking a bad beat no-decision in a 2-1 Phillies loss. No doubt his lineup will want to correct that tonight and give the 25-year-old the support he deserves, and against LH Jason Vargas (2-8; 8.10 ERA), they should be able to. The Mets are just 2-11 in Vargas' 13 starts this season, while Philly is 22-5 priced as a favorite of -150 or higher. Take Philly. MLB Elite Info Winner. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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