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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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08-18-13 | Indianapolis Colts +1.5 v. NY Giants | 20-12 | Win | 100 | 8 h 33 m | Show | |
This situation has historically favored the preseason away underdog. Especially if you consider the fact that the Colts were humiliated last week at home by Buffalo in a 44-20 loss as a 5.0-point favorite. The Giants on the other hand enter tonight feeling pretty good about themselves after beating the Steelers at Heinz Field last week and snapping Mike Tomin's 10-game preseason home winning streak. I know it's only the preseason but the Colts were a playoff team a year ago and couldn't be happy with their effort more specifically from the depth players. The bright lights of a primetime national telecast will produce a huge bounce back effort by the Colts this week.
Any preseason away underdog of 2.5 or less that's playing in game 2 or 3 of the preseason, and is coming off a home favorite straight up loss by 3-points or more, versus an opponent coming off a SU&ATS win is 9-0 SU&ATS since the start of the 1987 year. The Underdog won all 9 games outright by an average of 8.9 points per game. Play on the Indianapolis Colts as a 4* selection. |
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08-17-13 | Denver Broncos +5 v. Seattle Seahawks | 10-40 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 53 m | Show | |
Any home favorite in game 2 of the preseason and they're coming off a SU&ATS win as a favorite in which they covered by 17 points or more is 0-9 ATS since the start of the 1987 year. The underdog has won 6 of those 9 games outright.
Any home favorite of 4.0 or more that's playing in game 2 of the preseason and they're coming off a SU&ATS win as a favorite in which they covered by 1.5 or more, and they're facing an opponent that scored 28 points or less in their previous game is 1-11 ATS since the start of the 1980 year. The underdog has won 9 of those 12 games outright. Play on the Denver Broncos plus the points as a 3* selection. |
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08-16-13 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 v. New England Patriots | 21-25 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 35 m | Show | |
I can't imagine the Patriots are going to play Tom Brady for any prolonged period of time this evening after he suffered a sprained knee this past week. The Patriots are just 1-6 SU&ATS in their last 7 preseason games as a favorite following a win by 26 points or less. Tampa Bay has a lot of incentive heading into this week after suffering a humiliating 44-16 home loss as a 3.0-point favorite to the Baltimore Ravens in their preseason opener.
Any preseason away underdog coming off a straight up favorite loss by 11-points or more in which they allowed 21 points or more, versus an opponent coming off an away underdog straight up win is 12-0 ATS since the start of the 1985 preseason. The underdog won 10 of those 12 games outright. Play on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers plus the points as a 3* selection. |
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08-15-13 | Atlanta Falcons +4.5 v. Baltimore Ravens | 23-27 | Win | 100 | 49 h 14 m | Show | |
Without running any other query this is an ideal situation for the away underdog in the NFL preseason that's passed the test of time. Any away underdog in game 2 of the preseason that's coming off a home favorite SU loss is 47-18 ATS (72.3%) since 1985. In that exact same scenario if they're an away underdog of +1.5 or more the system improves to 20-2 ATS (90.9%) since the 1994 preseason. We can make this even sweeter. If we have an away underdog of 1.5 or more, they're coming off a home favorite SU loss, and they're facing an opponent who scored 18 points or more in their previous game the system becomes a perfect 16-0 ATS since 1994. In addition the underdog has won 12 of those 16 games outright to boot. Play on the Atlanta Falcons plus the points as a 3* selection.
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08-09-13 | Miami Dolphins -1.5 v. Jacksonville Jaguars | 27-3 | Win | 100 | 30 h 43 m | Show | |
This has been historically an ideal wagering situation in the NFL preseason. Miami will be playing their 2nd preseason game of the year versus a Jacksonville team that will be playing in their preseason opener. Since the 1980 preseason the team playing in their 2nd game in this exact situation is a very profitable 69-42 SU&ATS (62.2%). Below is a preseason angle that tightens this angle up even further to make it an extremely profitable situation.
Any away team playing in game 2 of the preseason and is coming off a SU&ATS loss by 6 points or less in which they scored 7 points or more, versus an opponent playing in their first game of the preseason is 8-1 SU&ATS since 1984. The away team has a large +10.2 point per game differential in those 9 contests. Play on the Miami Dolphins as a 3* selection. |
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08-08-13 | Cincinnati Bengals v. Atlanta Falcons UNDER 37 | 34-10 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 40 m | Show | |
Any NFL preseason home team with a total of 37.0 or more has seen 19 of those 22 games (83.4%) go under the total since the start of the 2003 year. If they are a favorite or underdog of 3.0 or less in that identical situation the number improves to all 15 of those contests going under the total. Play on this game to go under the total as a 3* selection.
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08-30-12 | Oakland Raiders +6.5 v. Seattle Seahawks | 3-21 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 29 m | Show | |
Any away underdog of 5.5 or more coming off a SU win versus an opponent coming off an away favorite ATS win in which they covered by 28 points or less is 9-0 ATS since the 1980 preseason. The underdog won 4 of those 9 games outright.
Any away underdog of 6.0 or more playing in game 4 of the preseason, they're coming off a SU win in their previous game, and they have at least one loss in the current year's preseason, versus an opponent also playing in game 4 of the preseason is 12-1 ATS and 8-4-1 SU since 1992. Play on the Oakland Raiders plus the points. |
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08-30-12 | Baltimore Ravens v. St Louis Rams -4.5 | Top | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 24 h 19 m | Show |
As has been customary for Jeff Fisher in his 15 years of being the head coach with Tennessee he uses the last preseason game as a dress rehearsal for the regular season as opposed to the next to last contest. One of the keys for the Rams in this preseason encounter will be the play of not drafted rookie quarterback Austin Davis out of Southern Mississippi. Davis has performed remarkably in camp and throughout the first 3 preseason games. I look for Sam Bradford and the starting offense to get things cranked up versus the Ravens backup players on defense as well. John Harbaugh will air on the side of caution here and not risk any injuries to key players and to get to the starting line in the best health possible.
Any home favorite of 3.5 or more that's coming off an away underdog ATS win versus an opponent off a home favorite ATS win in which they scored 25 points or more, and they have at least one loss in the preseason is 7-0 SU&ATS since the start of the 1980 exhibition schedule. The favorite has won those 7 games by an average of 25.4 points per game. Play on the St. Louis Rams minus the points. |
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08-26-12 | Carolina Panthers +3 v. NY Jets | 17-12 | Win | 100 | 7 h 51 m | Show | |
Any NFL preseason Game 3 home favorite who's yet to win a game, The lost their previous game by 7 points or more while allowing 27 points or less, and they're facing an opponent coming of a favorite SU&ATS win is 0-8 ATS since 1980. The underdog has won 7 of those 8 games outright.
Any preseason away underdog of 3.5 or less playing in their 3rd game, their first 2 games were both at home with last being a SU win, and they're facing an opponent who's yet to win a game is 5-0 ATS since 1991. The underdog has won 4 of those 5 games outright. Play on the Carolina Panthers plus the points. |
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08-25-12 | St Louis Rams +5.5 v. Dallas Cowboys | 19-20 | Win | 100 | 18 h 2 m | Show | |
Any team off a home underdog SU win by 10 points or more while scoring 19 or more versus an opponent coming off a SU loss is 10-0 ATS and 8-2 SU since the 1980 preseason.
Any preseason away underdog in Game 3 of the season that's coming off a home underdog SU win versus an opponent that's coming off a SU loss is 5-0 ATS since 1980. Play on the St. Louis Rams plus the points. |
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08-24-12 | San Diego Chargers v. Minnesota Vikings -3 | 12-10 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 36 m | Show | |
This goes against my preseason logic of fading a home favorite coming off a home favorite ATS win. There are times when common sense has to prevail and this is one of those cases. The Chargers will be without starting quarterback Philip Rivers tonight. Aside from the fact that's been already factored into the line and is the reason for the drastic line movement, I just don't care for the Chargers other two quarterbacks at all. Granted backup and tonight's scheduled starter has performed admirably in the first two preseason games it will be a whole different scenario this evening. He will be facing a starting defense for openers in addition to facing a team that will be game planning to stop the opposing offense for the first time this preseason. The other quarterback is Jarrett Lee out of LSU. I am not sold on the fact he's even a #3 caliber NFL quarterback.
I love the way Christian Ponder has progressed at quarterback for the Vikings and he will play into the 2nd half tonight. The other two Viking quarterbacks both have starting experience in Joe Webb and Sage Rosenfels. Webb in particular has looked very good in the first two preseason games. Play on the Minnesota Vikings minus the points. |
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08-24-12 | Philadelphia Eagles v. Cleveland Browns -4 | 27-10 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 17 m | Show | |
With Michael Vick out of the lineup until the regular season opener the Eagles will be down to rookie Nick Foley out of Arizona and well traveled and rarely coveted veteran Trent Edwards otherwise known as Captain Check Down. In addition the Eagles played last Monday night, have to travel for the 2nd consecutive game on just 3 days rest, and will sit the majority of their starters if not for the entire game it will be a good portion of the contest. The Browns figure to stay very vanilla considering they open the regular season in 2 weeks versus this same Eagles team. The difference is the Browns have a lot of jobs up for grabs unlike their star studded opponent tonight. Play on the Cleveland Browns minus the points.
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08-23-12 | Jacksonville Jaguars +7 v. Baltimore Ravens | 17-48 | Loss | -110 | 46 h 48 m | Show | |
I have always preached throughout my career that no team deserves to be this big of a favorite in the preseason. Just for starters any underdog of 7.0 or more is 63-39 ATS (61.7%) since the 1987 preseason and that's without even factoring anything else into the equation. If the large underdog is coming off an outright win as an underdog in their previous game they improve to 16-4 ATS. In addition they won 9 of those 20 games outright. On paper Baltimore is the better team hands down. However this is the preseason and even with both teams using this as a dress rehearsal for the regular season. History has shown us emphatically that underdogs of this size during the preseason are an extremely strong wager.
Any away underdog of 6.0 or more that's coming off a SU win by 16 points or less in which they scored 25 points or more, versus an opponent that has at least one preseason win is 10-0 ATS since 1980. The underdog has won 6 of those 10 games outright. Play on the Jacksonville Jaguars plus the points. |
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08-20-12 | PHILADELPHIA +1.5 v. New England Patriots | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 19 h 17 m | Show | |
The Eagles are going to treat this game like their final dress rehearsal for the regular season. It's very odd to say that since the vast majority of the time teams will use their next to last game for that purpose. However, the Eagles face the Browns next week in a game in which both teams figure to be as vanilla as can be. The logic is pretty much common sense in NFL circles since the Browns will be facing the Eagles in the opening week of the regular season. That's a real scheduling oddity to be sure and one we will take advantage of. We saw a similar situation last Thursday night as the Browns pounded the Packers 35-10 as a 3.0-point underdog. Play on the Philadelphia Eagles.
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08-19-12 | INDIANAPOLIS v. PITTSBURGH -3.5 | 24-26 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 54 m | Show | |
The Steelers are a perfect 6-0 SU&ATS in home preseason games since the start of the 2009 season winning by an average of 14.5 ppg. Indianapolis has gone 0-7 SU & 1-6 ATS in their last 7 preseason games as an away underdog of 3.5 or more losing by an average of 18.0 ppg. The Colts looked terrific last week especially 1st overall draft choice quarterback Andrew Luck. However there is a big difference between facing the Rams at home and the Steelers on the road even with keeping in mind these are meaningless games. The Steelers are deep and their 3-man quarterback rotation may be the best in all of the NFL.
Any preseason home favorite of a SU loss in which they scored 28 points or less, and they're facing an opponent off a SU win in which they scored 37 points or more is 9-0 SU & 7-0-2 ATS since 1997. Any preseason game 2 away underdog of 3.0 or more coming off a home favorite ATS win in which they scored 21 points or more, and is facing an opponent coming off a SU loss is 0-9 SU & 1-8 ATS since 1984. The home favorite won those 9 games by an average of 13.0 ppg. Play on the Pittsburgh Steelers minus the points. |
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08-18-12 | Kansas City Chiefs v. St Louis Rams +1 | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 5 h 12 m | Show | |
Although the cast of characters has changed through the years the Chiefs still have to rid themselves of the franchise stigma of losing their last 7 and 15 of their last 16 preseason road games. In addition they are a dismal 2-14 ATS in those contests. The Rams were thoroughly embarrassed in their preseason opener on the road in a 38-3 loss to the Colts. Jeff Fisher has proven in his long head coaching career with the Titans that his teams were resilient and had character. In spite of it being the preseason this is a golden opportunity to instill his personality into his new team tonight.
Any preseason home underdog or favorite of 4.0 or less that's coming off an away underdog ATS loss in which they failed to cover by 10.5 or more while scoring less than 10 points, and is facing an opponent coming off a home favorite ATS win in which they covered by 5 points or more is 7-0 SU&ATS since 1980. The home team has won those 8 games by an average of 11.3 ppg. Play on the St. Louis Rams. |
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08-18-12 | San Francisco 49ers v. HOUSTON -3 | 9-20 | Win | 100 | 5 h 9 m | Show | |
In a preseason battle between two of the best young teams in the NFL I give the advantage to the home club in this spot. I love the Texans quarterback rotation of Matt Schaub, T.J. Yates, and John Beck who all have regular season starting experience. I also love the all around depth of this Houston team. In spite of this being a meaningless game this is a huge measuring stick for a Houston team that lost a couple of star players to free agency on the defensive side of the ball.
Any preseason game 2 or 3 home favorite of 2.0 or more that's coming off an away underdog SU win in which they covered by 8.5 or more, and they're facing an opponent that's coming off a home favorite ATS win in which they covered by 7.5 or more is 9-0 SU&ATS since 1980. The home favorite has won those 9 games by an average of 17.9 ppg. Play on the Houston Texans minus the points. |
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08-17-12 | Detroit Lions +2.5 v. Baltimore Ravens | 27-12 | Win | 100 | 23 h 52 m | Show | |
The Lions reserves let a big lead slip away in a 19-17 home loss to the Browns. In spite of that loss Detroit is 7-1 SU&ATS in their last 8 preseason games. The Ravens looked impressive in a 31-17 road win over Atlanta. They couldn't have played much better considering it was a preseason game. Considering what time of year it is my experience tells me it's highly unlikely they will duplicate anything close to what they showed last week.
Any preseason game 2 away underdog of 1.5 or more that's coming off a home favorite SU loss by 2 points or more, and they're facing an opponent coming off a SU win is 19-1 ATS since 1994. The Underdog won 15 of those 20 games outright. Play on the Detroit Lions plus the points. |
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08-17-12 | TENNESSEE +3 v. TAMPA BAY | 30-7 | Win | 100 | 22 h 18 m | Show | |
Tennessee will go with Jake Locker at quarterback to starts the game. Locker is expected to get 20 to 25 snaps. The 2nd year signal caller is in a heated battle for the starting job with veteran Matt Hasselbeck who will relieve him this week after getting the nod in the preseason opener. Rusty Smith is a decent 3rd string guy and had his moments last week. Tampa may have received a false sense of security last week versus a Miami team that was playing their first game with a new coaching staff and plenty of player movement in the offseason.
Any game 2 NFL preseason underdog of 1.5 or more that's coming off a SU&ATS loss versus an opponent coming off an away underdog SU win in which they allowed 7 points or more is 16-1 ATS since the 1993 preseason. The underdog won 13 of those 17 games outright. Play on the Tennessee Titans plus the points. |
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08-10-12 | ARIZONA +3 v. Kansas City Chiefs | 17-27 | Loss | -120 | 51 h 42 m | Show | |
Since the 2007 preseason Kansas City is 0-6 SU&ATS as a home favorite or underdog of 3.5 or less. The Chiefs are also a dismal 1-7 SU&ATS in their last 8 opening preseason games. After being injured last week in the preseason opener Kevin Kolb is listed as probable, which comes as no surprise considering he's in a battle for the starting quarterback position with John Skelton. I was very impressed on Sunday night with the poise and confidence displayed by rookie 6th round draft choice quarterback Ryan Lindley out of San Diego St. The Cardinals are loaded at the offensive skill positions in spite of not having starting running back Beanie Wells and the fact they are being cautious with 1st round draft choice running back Ryan Williams who didn't see any action in the Hall of Fame Game.
Any away underdog of 5.0 or less that's playing in their 2nd preseason game and is coming off a SU&ATS loss as an underdog, they allowed 21 points or less in their previous game while failing to cover by 4.5 or less, and they scored 7 points or more in that loss is 12-0 SU&ATS since the 1980 preseason. The underdog won all 12 of these games outright by an average of 9.0 points per game. Play on the Arizona Cardinals plus the points. |
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08-09-12 | NEW ORLEANS +3.5 v. New England Patriots | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 26 h 23 m | Show | |
The Saints are 7-0 SU&ATS as an away underdog of 2.5 or more with a total of 38.0 or less since the 2002 preseason. The Patriots are a dismal 0-5 SU&ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 or more since the 2007 preseason. Since the 2005 preseason the Patriots are 0-4 SU&ATS as a home favorite with a total of 37.0 or more.
Any preseason away underdog playing in their second game that scored and allowed 19 points or less in their first game, and their opponent is playing their first preseason game is 11-2-1 ATS since 1990. The underdog has won 11 of those 14 games outright. Play on the New Orleans Saints plus the points. |
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08-05-12 | ARIZONA v. NEW ORLEANS UNDER 37.5 | 10-17 | Win | 100 | 27 h 56 m | Show | |
Don't look for much from both of these teams offensively. In addition to staying vanilla neither team will be using their offensive skill people for any length of time. The Saints quarterback Drew Brees is slated to play a couple of series at most. Based on that game plan, Brees is expected to open against the Cardinals, break a sweat, then go to the sideline and turn the game over to reserve quarterbacks Chase Daniel, Sean Canfield and Luke McCown.
The Cardinals starting quarterback Kevin Kolb is expected to start in spite of suffering a thigh contusion at practice this week. He will be relieved by backup John Skelton. Both are expected to see very limited action with Richard Bartel and rookie 6th round pick Ryan Lindley getting the rest of the snaps. Any favorite of 3.0 or less, with a total of 36.5 or more, and both teams are playing their preseason opener has seen 15 of those 16 games go under the total since that start of 2003. The average combined score in those 16 games was 25.3 ppg. Play on this game to go under the total. |
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08-27-11 | New England Patriots v. Detroit Lions +4 | 10-34 | Win | 100 | 70 h 38 m | Show | |
New England @ Detroit 8:00 PM ET
Play On: Detroit +4.0 (10*) Any preseason home underdog of 2.5 or more that allowed 15 points or more in their previous game, and they are facing an opponent that's coming off back to back SU wins the last of which they scored 35 points or less is 13-2 ATS since 1980. The underdog won 12 of those 15 games outright. Any preseason home underdog of 2.0 or more with a total of 37.5 or more that scored 30 points or more in their previous game, and they're facing an opponent that scored 30 or more points in their previous game is 7-0 ATS since 1999. The underdog has won 6 of those 7 games outright. Play on the Detroit Lions plus the points as a 10* selection. |
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08-27-11 | Atlanta Falcons +3.5 v. Pittsburgh Steelers | 16-34 | Loss | -110 | 69 h 9 m | Show | |
Atlanta @ Pittsburgh 7:30 PM ET
Play On: Atlanta +3.5 (10*) Any preseason game 3 home favorite of 3.5 or less, that's coming off a home favorite ATS win in which they scored 37 points or less, versus an opponent coming off a SU loss in which they scored 24 points or less is 0-17 ATS since 1983. Play on the Atlanta Falcons plus the points as a 10* selection. |
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08-27-11 | Miami Dolphins +4 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 13-17 | Push | 0 | 69 h 8 m | Show | |
Miami @ Tampa Bay 7:30 PM ET
Play On: Miami +4.0 (10*) Any away underdog of 5.5 or less that's playing in game 3 of the preseason, they are coming off back to back SU wins the last of which they allowed 7 points or more, and they are facing an opponent that scored 7 points or more in their previous game is 15-0 ATS since 1993. The underdog has won 13 of those 15 games outright. Play on the Miami Dolphins plus the points as a 10* selection. |
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08-25-11 | Washington Redskins +5.5 v. Baltimore Ravens | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 32 h 59 m | Show | |
Washington @ Baltimore 8:00 PM ET
Play On: Washington +5.5 Any preseason away underdog that's coming off a SU&ATS win versus an opponent coming off a home favorite ATS win in which they covered by 10.0 or more, and they scored 29 points or more is 17-2 ATS since 1980. The underdog has won 13 of those 19 games outright. Any preseason away underdog of 6.5 or less that's coming off back to back favorite ATS wins, they covered their previous game by 22.0 or less, and they are facing an opponent coming off a SU win is 8-0 SU&ATS since 1989. |
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08-21-11 | San Diego Chargers +1.5 v. Dallas Cowboys | 20-7 | Win | 100 | 6 h 10 m | Show | |
San Diego @ Dallas 8:00 PM ET
Play On: San Diego +1.5 (10*) Any away underdog of 3.5 or less playing in game 2 or 3 of the preseason, they are coming off a home favorite SU loss in which they failed to cover by 10.0 or more points, versus an opponent coming off a SU win in which they scored 20 points or more is 14-1 ATS since 1985. Any game 2 preseason away underdog versus an opponent coming off a home SU win but ATS loss in which they scored 17 points or more is 6-0 SU&ATS since 1995. The underdog has won all 6 of those games outright by an average of 7.0 points per game. |
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08-20-11 | Minnesota Vikings +3 v. Seattle Seahawks | 20-7 | Win | 100 | 5 h 58 m | Show | |
Minnesota @ Seattle 10:00 PM ET
Play On: Minnesota +3.0 (10*) Any home favorite of 5.0 or less in Game 3 or less into the preseason that's coming off an away underdog SU win, versus an opponent coming off a SU loss in which they scored 15 points or less, and allowed 15 points or less is 0-8 ATS since 1980. If they are a favorite of 3.5 or less they are 0-5 SU&ATS since 1980. Play on the Minnesota Vikings plus the number. |
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08-19-11 | Atlanta Falcons +3 v. Jacksonville Jaguars | 13-15 | Win | 100 | 7 h 35 m | Show | |
Atlanta @ Jacksonville 8:00 PM ET
Play On: Atlanta +3.0 (10*) The Falcons blew a 17-0 lead at home last week versus Miami that didn't sit quite well with the coaching staff especially considering the majority of the damage was done versus backups. Jacksonville was obliterated by New England last week 47-12 on the road. In their defense they were without 1st team quarterback David Garrard who will be available tonight. It won't matter that Atlanta starters will play the majority of the 1st half according to all reports and they simply have more depth than tonight's opponent. Any preseason Game 2 away underdog of 5.0 or less that's coming off a home favorite SU loss in which they allowed 26 points or more is 15-1-1 ATS since 1986. The underdogs won 15 of those 17 games outright. Play on the Atlanta Falcons plus the number as a 10* selection. |
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08-18-11 | New England Patriots v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers OVER 37 | 31-14 | Win | 100 | 8 h 30 m | Show | |
New England @ Tampa Bay 7:30 PM ET
Play On: Over 37.0 (10*) The Patriots have gone over the total in 6 of their last 7 NFL preseason games under Bill Belichek. New England has scored 27 points or more in 6 of those 7 games. The Patrioits have excellent quarterback depth especially considering Tom Brady will make his preseason debut tonight all be it in limited action. His backups are veteran Bobby Hoyer and impressive rookie Ryan Mallett both of which were very impressive last week. Tampa Bay head coach Rasheem Morris has indicated his starters will likely play the entire first half tonight. That means up and coming star starting quarterback Josh Freeman to get plenty of snaps tonight. The Bucs also have quality depth at that position with Josh Johnson who has starting experience and gutsy Rudy Carpenter the former Arizona St. star. An preseason away underdog that's coming off a home favorite ATS win versus an opponent coming off an away favorite ATS win has gone over the total in all 8 games since the 1996 preseason. The average total score in those 8 games were 45.3 points per game. |
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08-13-11 | Buffalo Bills v. Chicago Bears OVER 36 | Top | 3-10 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 37 m | Show |
Buffalo @ Chicago 8:00 PM ET
Play On: Over 36.0 The Bills went over in all 4 of their preseason games last season the first under head coach Chan Gailey. Not only did all 4 of those go over but there was 51 points or more scored in each one of those contests and they averaged 55.0 PPG. That's by no coincidence considering the fact that Gailey's pedigree is on the offensive side of the ball with many of his years spent as an offensive coordinator when he wasn't a head coach. Even with the recent trade of Lee Evans Buffalo has a plethora of talented receivers that will competing for playing time. They also have quality running backs starting with Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller. The quarterback position is in good hands with starter Ryan Fitzpatrick, Tyler Thigpen who was the starting QB in Kansas City when Gailey was the offensive coordinator, and 2nd year pro Levi Brown. One thing that hasn't changed in spite of coaching changes on the defensive side is the Buffalo stop unit continues to leak like a major weakness. The Bears have seen their last 6 preseason openers all go over the total with Lovie Smith as the head man. The starting quarterback Jay Cutler will be backed up by Caleb Hanie who has been impressive when given the chance, and the rookie 5th round draft choice Nathan Enderle out of Idaho who by all accounts is pressing Hanie for the 2nd team backup role. Both of these teams possess dangerous kick and punt return games. Don't be shocked if we produce at least one touchdown in that area and get favorable field positions for the offense on several other occasions. Play on this game to go over the total. |
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08-13-11 | Green Bay Packers v. Cleveland Browns -2 | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show | |
Green Bay @ Cleveland 7:30 PM ET
Play On: Cleveland -2.0 The Green Bay coach Mike McCarthy has publicly stated his starters will see very limited action in this game. In addition the Packers suffered numerous injuries down the stretch last year. Many of those players are healthy and ready to go but will be brought along slowly. What better way for the new coaching staff in Cleveland to get off to a positive start than a victory over the defending Super Bowl champion even if it's only a preseason game. Starting quarterback Colt McCoy figures to see extended time in the game trying to get adjusted to new offensive coordinator Pat Schurmur's schemes. The line opened with Green Bay as a 1.5 point favorite and now the Browns are a 2.0 point favorite at the time of this writing. This isn't public money induced. Play on the Cleveland Browns. |
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08-28-10 | Jacksonville Jaguars v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 | 19-13 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 40 m | Show | |
Jacksonville @ Tampa Bay 7;30 PM EDT
Play On: Tampa Bay +2.5 Any preseason home underdog that allowed 26-points or less in their previous game versus an opponent that's coming off a home favorite SU loss is 18-3 ATS since 1989. If the away favorite scored 21-points or more in their previous game then the system improves to 5-0 SU&ATS since 1989. The home underdog won all 5 of those games outright by an average of 18.2 PPG. Play on Tampa Bay as a home underdog selection. |
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08-27-10 | San Diego Chargers +5 v. New Orleans Saints | Top | 21-36 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
San Diego @ New Orleans 8:00 PM EDT
Play On: San Diego +5.0 Any preseason away underdog of 3.5 or less that's coming off of a home favorite SU loss, versus an opponent that's off a SU&ATS win, and they scored 24-points or more is 23-3 ATS since 1980. The underdog has won 19 of those 26-games outright. Any preseason away underdog of 3.5 or less that's playing in Game 3 or less, versus an opponent that's coming off of a home favorite ATS win in which they covered by 14.5 or more, and scored 21-points or more is 12-0 ATS since 1980. The underdog has won 11 of those 12-games outright. Any preseason away underdog of 3.5 or less that's coming off of a home favorite SU loss in which they scored 24-points or less, versus an opponent off a home favorite ATS win is 9-0 ATS since 1980. The underdog has won 8 of those 9-games outright. Play on the San Diego Chargers plus the points. |
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08-26-10 | St. Louis Rams +8 v. New England Patriots | 36-35 | Win | 100 | 18 h 13 m | Show | |
St. Louis @ New England 7:30 PM EDT
Play On: St. Louis +8.0 I have always been of the opinion that no team deserves to be a touchdown or better favorite in the preseason. In addition the Patriots are 0-4 SU&ATS as a home favorite of 4.5 or more under Bill Belichek. The Rams are a perfect 3-0 SU&ATS as a preseason away underdog under 2nd year head coach Steve Spagnoulo. Any preseason away underdog of 3.0 or more that's Coming off of a SU win by 19-points or less, versus an opponent coming off of BB SU wins, they scored 24-points or more in their previous game, and they won the previous game by 5-points or more is 16-0 ATS since 1984. The underdog has won 13 of those 16-games outright. Any preseason away underdog of 7.0 or more that's coming off of a SU&ATS win, versus an opponent coming off a SU&ATS win that they scored 14-points or more is 11-0 ATS since 1980. The underdog has won 6 of those 11 games outright. |
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08-21-10 | St Louis +3 v. Cleveland | 19-17 | Win | 100 | 69 h 21 m | Show | |
St. Louis @ Cleveland 7:30 PM EDT
Play On: St. Louis +3.0 Any preseason away underdog that's coming off of a home favorite SU loss by 5 points or more, versus an opponent that comes off of an away underdog SU win by 8 points or less, and they allowed 15 points or more is 10-0 ATS since 1980. The underdog has won 9 of those 10 games outright. Any preseason away underdog that's coming off of a SU favorite loss by 15 points or more, versus an opponent that's coming off of an away underdog SU win is 7-0 SU&ATS since 1980. The underdog has won all 7 of those games by an average of 6.4 points per game. These 2 preseason angles are a combined 17-0 ATS and 16-1 SU since 1980 in favor of the underdog in these 2 situations that apply to this contest. Play on the St. Louis Rams plus the points as my NFL Preseason Anti-Public Game of the Week. |
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08-21-10 | Baltimore Ravens +3 v. Washington Redskins | Top | 23-3 | Win | 100 | 70 h 32 m | Show |
Baltimore @ Washington 7:00 PM EDT
Play On: Baltimore +3.0 Any preseason away underdog of 3.5 or less versus an opponent that's coming off of a home favorite ATS win that they covered by 10.0 or more, and they scored 20 or more points in that previous game 17-2 ATS since 1984. The underdog has won 16 of those 19 games outright. Any preseason pick or underdog of 3.5 or less, playing in Game 2 or 3 of the preseason, versus an opponent that's coming off of a home favorite ATS win that they covered by 11.5 or more, scored 20 points or more, and won SU by 22 points or more is 7-0 ATS since 1980. The underdog is 6-0-1 SU in those 7 games. Any preseason away underdog of 3.5 or less that's coming off of a SU win, versus an opponent that's coming off of a home favorite ATS win that they covered by 10.0 or more, and scored 26 points or more is 11-2 ATS since 1980. The underdog has won 10 of those 13 games outright. These 3 preseason angles are a combined 35-4 ATS and 32-6-1 SU in favor of the underdog. Play on the Baltimore Ravens plus the points as my NFL Preseason Game of the Week. |
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