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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-25-17 | Colorado v. Utah -10.5 | Top | 13-34 | Win | 100 | 29 h 38 m | Show |
Colorado @ Utah 10:00 PM ET Game# 187-188 Play On: Utah -10.5 (10*) Utah has lost each of their last 2 games and is currently 5-6 (.454) The Utes must win their regular season finale on Saturday to become bowl eligible. Colorado is coming off a 38-24 loss to USC in its previous game. Any conference home favorite of 10.5 to 19.5-points, and they have a win percentage of .400 to .490, versus an opponent coming off a loss by 31 points or less. resulted in those home favorites going 27-6 ATS (81.8%) since 2008. If those home favorites are coming off 2 straight losses, they improve to 10-0 ATS since 2009. The average victory margin in those contests was 28.2 points per game. Bet on Utah minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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11-18-17 | NC State v. Wake Forest -1.5 | Top | 24-30 | Win | 100 | 24 h 57 m | Show |
NC State @ Wake Forest 7:30 PM ET Game# 333-334 Play On: Wake Forest -2.0 (10*) Wake Forest is coming off a 64-43 away favorite ATS win at Syracuse last Saturday. The win improved their record to 6-4 (.600) and made them bowl eligible. The Demon Deacons offense has caught fire over their past 3 games while scoring 37 points or more on each occasion. NC State escaped with a narrow 17-14 win at Boston College last week which put an end to a 2-game losing streak. The Wolfpack benefitted from Boston College losing starting quarterback Anthony Brown to a 1st half injury. Any conference home team with a win percentage of .444 or better that’s playing after Game 6 of the season, and they’re coming off a conference away favorite ATS win in which they scored 60 points or more, resulted in those home teams going 32-4 (88.9%) straight up since 1987. The straight up results in this betting angle takes on added significance due to the tiny number we’re being asked to cover. Bet on Wake Forest for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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11-11-17 | NC State v. Boston College +3 | Top | 17-14 | Push | 0 | 19 h 46 m | Show |
NC State @ Boston College 12:00 PM ET Game# 133-134 Play On: Boston College +3.0 (5*) NC State is coming off a 38-31 home loss to Clemson in their previous game. Boston College is coming off wins of 41-10 at Virginia and 35-3 over Florida State during their previous 2 contests. Any team (Boston College) coming off 2 straight wins that each came by 31 points or more, versus an opponent (NC State) that allowed 37 points or more in their previous contest, resulted in those teams going 72-6 straight up (92.3%) since 1992. The straight up results take on added significance due to this betting angle supporting the home underdog. Bet on Boston College plus the points for a 5* wager. |
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11-04-17 | Texas v. TCU -6.5 | Top | 7-24 | Win | 100 | 23 h 60 m | Show |
Texas @ TCU 7:15 ET Game# 379-380 Play On: TCU -6.5 (10*) TCU will be in a sour mood after last week’s 14-7 upset loss at #14 Iowa State. What better way to bounce back from their first loss of the season than with a convincing win over in state rival Texas. Meanwhile, Texas is coming off a 38-7 road favorite ATS win over winless Baylor. Any home favorite of 6.0 or more that’s coming off an away favorite straight up loss by 21 points or less, versus an opponent coming off an away favorite ATS win in which they covered by 4.0-points or more, resulted in those home favorites going 11-0 ATS since 1982. The average victory margin in those 11 contests came by a substantial 27.7 points per game. Bet on TCU as a 10* Top Play wager. |
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10-28-17 | TCU v. Iowa State +7 | Top | 7-14 | Win | 100 | 16 h 47 m | Show |
TCU @ Iowa State 3:30 PM ET Game# 193-194 Play On: Iowa State +7.0 (5*) TCU is coming off a 43-0 lopsided win over Kansas last Saturday. The Horned Frogs held a massive 475-21 total yards advantage while coasting to that victory. However, TCU is a poor 1-8 ATS since 2015 following a game in which they outgained their opponent by 225 yards or more. Additionally, the #4 undefeated Horned Frogs have in state rival Texas and #10 Oklahoma up next. Iowa State is 5-2 and enters this week riding a current 3-game win streak. The Cyclones have cracked the Top 25 for the first time this season after last Saturday’s 31-13 upset win at Texas Tech. Keep in mind, this is also the same Iowa State team that knocked off then unbeaten and #2 Oklahoma as a 31.0-point road underdog. I look for the Cyclones to give TCU all they can handle and then some. Bet on Iowa State plus the points for a 5* wager. |
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10-21-17 | Kentucky v. Mississippi State -11 | Top | 7-45 | Win | 100 | 47 h 29 m | Show |
Kentucky @ Mississippi State 4:00 PM ET Game# 375-376 Play On: Mississippi State -11.0 (10*) Mississippi State is coming off a 35-10 win over BYU. The Bulldogs covered in that contest as a sizable 22.5-point favorite. Kentucky is coming off a 40-34 home win over a Missouri team that’s 0-5 against FBS opponents this season. That win improved the Wildcats season record to 5-1 (.833). Any conference favorite of 10.5 to 21.0-points (Mississippi State), coming off a favorite of 10.0 or more ATS win in which they covered by 2.0 points or more, versus an opponent (Kentucky) with a win percentage of .500 or better, and they are coming off a home game where both teams scored 31 points or more, resulted in those conference favorites going 25-0 ATS since 1995, and they won by an average of 26.6 points per game. Bet on Mississippi State minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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10-14-17 | Oklahoma -9 v. Texas | Top | 29-24 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 48 m | Show |
Oklahoma vs. Texas 3:30 PM ET Game# 181-182 Play On: Oklahoma -9.0 (10*) Texas has vastly underachieved thus far by going just 3-2. They won their last 2 games over Iowa State 17-7 and Kansas State 40-34. The Longhorns are 0-4 SU&ATS during their last 4 games after back to back wins, and they lost by 18.3 points per contest. You may be surprised to know that Texas hasn’t put together a 3-game win streak since 11/15/2014. Oklahoma is coming off a stunning 38-31 loss to Iowa State last Saturday, and especially since the Sooners were a 30.0-point favorite in that contest. Oklahoma has gone 35-3 straight up in their last 38 games following a loss, and that includes 26-12 ATS (68.4%). If they were facing a conference opponent in those contests their record improved to 22-7 ATS (75.9%), and that includes 9-0 ATS as a favorite of 11.5 or less. Bet on Oklahoma minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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10-07-17 | Washington State v. Oregon +3 | Top | 33-10 | Loss | -115 | 28 h 15 m | Show |
Washington State @ Oregon 8:00 PM ET Game# 377-378 Play On: Oregon +3.0 (10*) Oregon is coming off a 45-24 home win over California last Saturday. That victory improved the Ducks season record to 4-1 (.800). A win over a nationally ranked opponent would go a long way in putting Oregon back on the national radar. I look for the Ducks to be sky high on Saturday and turn in their best performance to date. Washington State is coming off a 30-27 upset win over USC which came as a 5.0-point home underdog. I just don’t see how the Cougars can possibly come close to match the intensity they displayed last week in that huge win, and especially so when playing on the road. A letdown is in the forecast. Any home team (Oregon) with a win percentage of better than .750, coming off a conference win by 10 points or more, versus an opponent (USC) coming off a conference home underdog straight up win by 8 points or more, resulted in those home teams going 38-0 straight up since 2000. Considering this straight up betting angle sides with the underdog, it certainly adds significantly to the betting value. Bet on Oregon plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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09-30-17 | Arizona State v. Stanford -17 | Top | 24-34 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 19 m | Show |
Arizona State @ Stanford 4:00 PM ET Game# 201-202 Play On: Stanford -17.0 (10*) Arizona State is coming off a shocking 37-35 upset of undefeated Oregon, and they did so as a 15.5-point home underdog. That win evened the Sun Devils record at 2-2. The Sun Devils have surrendered 30 points or more in each of their 4 games this season. Arizona State has gone 1-6 SU&ATS in their last 7 road games following a straight up win. Stanford has gone an extremely profitable 7-1 ATS as a home favorite of 12.0 or more when facing an opponent that allowed 32 points or more in their previous game. The Cardinal won all 8 contests straight up and did so by a massive 33.0 points per game. Stanford is coming off a momentum building 58-34 conference home win over UCLA which ended a 2-game losing streak. Any conference home favorite of 10.5 to 21.0 points that’s coming off a conference game, versus an opponent coming off a conference win by 3 points or less, and they (Arizona State) possess a win percentage of .450 to .550, resulted in those home favorites going 13-0 SU&ATS since 2007. The average margin of victory in those contests was 30.9 points per game. Bet on Stanford minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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09-16-17 | LSU v. Mississippi State +7.5 | Top | 7-37 | Win | 100 | 33 h 57 m | Show |
LSU @ Mississippi State 7:00 PM ET Game# 187-188 Play On: Mississippi State +7.5 (10*) For starters, Mississippi State has the better head coach (Dan Mullen) and quarterback (Nick Fitzgerald) in this matchup. The Bulldogs have covered their last 3 games against LSU, won straight up on one occasion while its 2 losses came by narrow 2 and 3-point margins. Since 2012, Mississippi State has gone a stellar 26-9 at home. Since 2013, LSU is an abysmal 1-7 straight up and 0-8 ATS on the road following a win. Mississippi State is off to a 2-0 start. The Bulldogs opened with a 49-0 win against Charleston Southern, and then last week went on the road where they crushed Louisiana Tech by a score of 57-21. Mississippi State has now gone 13-9 over its last 22 games. A combination of the previously mentioned results creates a powerful college football betting angle which favors the underdog in this matchup. Any college football home underdog of 4.5 to 11.0-points, coming off 2 straight wins in which they scored 40 points or more in each contest, and they’ve won 10 or more of its previous 22 games, resulted in those home underdogs going a perfect 23-0 ATS since 1983. The underdog also won 18 of those 23 games straight up. Bet on Mississippi State plus the points for a 10* wager. |
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09-09-17 | Houston v. Arizona +1 | Top | 19-16 | Loss | -105 | 29 h 44 m | Show |
Houston @ Arizona 10:30 PM ET Game# 397-398 Play On: Arizona +1.0 (10*) This will be the season opener for Houston. Their scheduled season opener last week against Texas San-Antonio was cancelled due to “Hurricane Harvey”. Arizona is coming off last week’s season opening 62-24 win over Northern Arizona, and covered as a 27.5-point home favorite. Despite the win, Arizona is just 8-14 during its last 22 games. Any home team playing in their 2nd of their season (lined game), coming off a home favorite ATS win, versus a non-conference opponent (Houston) playing in its season opener, resulted in those home teams going 32-2 (94.3%) straight up since 1987. The straight up number takes on added significance considering this point-spread. Bet on Arizona for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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09-02-17 | Florida State +7.5 v. Alabama | Top | 7-24 | Loss | -115 | 82 h 10 m | Show |
Florida St. vs. Alabama 8:00 PM ET Game# 205-206 Play On: Florida St. +7.5 (10*) Writing about how good Alabama has been in recent years, and how good they’ll be this season, is nothing more than redundant as well as boring. Hence, let’s talk about Florida St. The Seminoles are one of the few teams in the country capable of matching up with Alabama from an overall talent perspective. As a matter of fact, Florida St. holds the slight edge in experience with 16 returning starters from a team that went 10-3 in 2016, compared to 12 for Alabama. Furthermore, since 2012, Florida St. has gone a terrific 59-9 (.868) under the watchful eye of head coach Jimbo Fisher. That includes a National Championship in 2013, and a College Football Playoff appearance in 2014. Additionally, the Seminoles have won 7 straight season openers since Jimbo Fisher took over as head coach, and they’re also a perfect 12-0 in their first 2 games of the season since 2013. It all adds up to a sizable amount of underdog betting value regardless of the opponent, and especially so with the generous amount of points they’ll be receiving. Bet on Florida St. plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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01-09-17 | Clemson +6.5 v. Alabama | Top | 35-31 | Win | 100 | 6 h 27 m | Show |
Clemson vs. Alabama 8:00 PM ET Play On: Clemson +6.5 (10*) Just to refresh everyone’s memory, Clemson may have lost to Alabama in last year’s national championship game, but it was no fault of then sophomore quarterback Deshaun Watson. During that contest, Watson threw for a massive 405 yards, tossed 4 passes for touchdowns, and rushed for an additional 73 yards. Watson was brilliant in Clemson’s semifinals win over Ohio State on New Year’s Eve. He accounted for 316 total yards and 4 touchdowns in that contest. Clemson gets a lot of acclaim for their high-powered offense, and rightfully so. However, their defensive prowess seems to fly under the radar. The Tigers stop unit is allowing just 17.1 points and 306.9 yards per game. They stifled Ohio State’s offense in their semifinal win by not only shutting them out, but also held the Buckeyes to a mere 215 total yards. The Alabama defense has been dominant this season, and it’s been a major reason why they’re a perfect 14-0 up until this point. They’re allowing a paltry 11.4 points and 244.4 yards per game. Alabama has allowed 17 points or less in each of its previous 8 games. Any college football underdog of 3.5 to 10.0 (Clemson), facing an opponent (Alabama) which allows 14.0 points or less per game for the season, and they allowed 17 points or less in each of their last 5 games, resulted in those underdogs going 43-15 (74.1%) against the spread since 1992. The average line in those 58 contests was 7.0, and the underdog won 25 of those games straight up. Bet on Clemson plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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01-02-17 | Auburn v. Oklahoma -3 | Top | 19-35 | Win | 100 | 34 h 10 m | Show |
Auburn vs. Oklahoma 8:30 PM ET Play On: Oklahoma -3.0 (10*) We’ve seen this line move quickly from 6.0 down to 4.5. Quite frankly, I attribute it to the overzealous Southeast Conference fans that still feel they’re superior when facing any non-conference team. Auburn is a terrific defensive football team, but they’re very limited offensively. That flaw reared its ugly head in all 4 of their losses, and it will again in the Sugar Bowl. Oklahoma went on a late season run that saw them win its last 9 games on their way to seizing the Big 12 title. Sooners quarterback Baker Mayfield has been as good as any quarterback in the country during the second half of the season. Lay the points with “Boomer Sooner”. Bet on Oklahoma minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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12-31-16 | Ohio State -2.5 v. Clemson | Top | 0-31 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 23 m | Show |
Ohio State vs. Clemson 7:00 PM ET Play On: Ohio State -2.5 (10*) It’s extremely difficult for me to go against Ohio State head coach Urban Meyer in a big game, and especially on that’s a virtual even matchup like this one. After all, since taking over in Columbus prior to the 2012 season, Meyer is 61-5 (.924) as head coach of the Buckeyes. Furthermore, during that time span, Ohio State is 11-1 straight up and 10-2 ATS as a favorite or dog of 4.0 or less. All due respect to Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney, but my money will unequivocally be on Urban Meyer and the Buckeyes. Bet on Ohio State for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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12-30-16 | Florida State +7.5 v. Michigan | Top | 33-32 | Win | 100 | 32 h 28 m | Show |
Florida State vs. Michigan 8:00 PM ET Play On: Florida State +7.5 (10*) Sometimes it’s about motivation when it comes to handicapping bowl games. Pundits will tell you that Michigan is out to prove the playoff committee wrong for being snubbed. However, my past experiences lead me to disagree with those opinions. The disappointment of being relegated to a smaller stage often brings out the worst and not best for teams in the position Michigan will be. Conversely, Florida State has been out of national championship contention for quite some time, and are elated to be in this illustrious bowl game. Any underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 (Florida State), possessing a winning record, versus an opponent (Michigan) coming off a road loss by 3 points or less, and they also own a winning record, resulted in those underdogs going 35-10 ATS (77.7%) since 1993. The underdog also won 22 of those 45 games straight up. Bet on Florida State plus the points for a 10* Top Play selection. |
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12-29-16 | South Florida -10 v. South Carolina | Top | 46-39 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 45 m | Show |
South Florida vs. South Carolina 2:00 PM ET Play On: South Florida -10.0 (10*) South Florida flies under the radar a bit while heading into this bowl season with a stellar 10-2 record. They’re only 2 losses came at the hands of Florida State (9-3) and Temple (10-3). South Florida has scored 35 points or more in 10 of 12 games this season. Granted the SEC is still considered a vastly superior from top to bottom than the AAC. However, the disparity gap between those conferences narrowed considerably in 2016. South Carolina went 6-6 during regular season action, and their only win over a FBS opponent with a winning record came in an upset of Tennessee. The Gamecocks have averaged only 19.2 points scored and 336.4 yards of total offense per game Bet on South Florida minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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12-26-16 | Vanderbilt v. NC State -5.5 | Top | 17-41 | Win | 100 | 55 h 49 m | Show |
Vanderbilt vs. NC State 5:00 PM ET (Monday 12/26) Play On: NC State -5.5 (10*) The NC State defense has been stout against the run this season, further proven by them allowing just 105 yards per game on the ground. That’s significant when handicapping this contest, and especially when considering Vanderbilt has ran the ball on 56.7% of their offensive snaps during regular season action. Speaking of Vanderbilt’s offense, the Commodores have scored 17 points or less in 7 of their 12 regular season games, and they were particularly anemic when playing away from home. On the other side of the fence, NC State has amassed 469 yards or more of total offense in 6 of their 12 games. They’ll be facing a Vanderbilt defense which has allowed 453.3 yards per game over their previous 3 contests. Bet on NC State minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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12-03-16 | Louisiana Tech v. Western Kentucky -10 | Top | 44-58 | Win | 100 | 22 h 33 m | Show |
Louisiana Tech @ Western Kentucky 12:00 PM ET Play On: Western Kentucky -10.0 (10*) Louisiana Tech is coming off a 39-24 upset loss as a double-digit favorite in their regular season finale against Southern Mississippi. They’ll be facing a Western Kentucky team that’s won 12 straight conference home games, and that includes 6-0 SU&ATS in their last 6 when they’re a favorite of 19.0 or less. They won those 6 contests by a decisive average of 28.8 points per game. Western Kentucky is coming off wins of 60-6 over Marshall, and 45-7 against North Texas during their previous 2 games. They finished the regular season with a 9-3 record. They’ll be playing with revenge stemming from a 55-52 regular season loss at Louisiana Tech. Their other 2 defeats came at #1 Alabama, and a narrow 1-point loss at the hands of Vanderbilt. Any favorite of 6.5 to 19.0 (Western Kentucky), coming off 2 straight wins by 28 points or more on each occasion, versus an opponent (Louisiana Tech) that allowed 37 points or more in their previous game, resulted in those favorites going 23-3 ATS (88.4%) since 2008. Bet on Western Kentucky minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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11-26-16 | Florida v. Florida State -7 | Top | 13-31 | Win | 100 | 24 h 7 m | Show |
Florida @ Florida State 8:00 PM ET Play On: Florida State -7.0 (10*) I haven’t been sold on Florida all season. Granted their defense is one of the best nationally. Nevertheless, the Gators offense leaves a lot to be desired. Florida State has too many weapons at the skilled positions for the Florida defense to remain stout for an entire 4 quarters. Florida State is coming off a 45-14 blowout win at Syracuse this past Saturday. On the other hand, Florida pulled off a huge 16-10 upset win as a 13.5-point underdog at Florida last week. Any home favorite of 4.0 to 16.5 (Florida State), coming off a conference win by 10 points or more, versus an opponent (Florida) coming off a win as an underdog of 6.0 or more, resulted in those home favorite going 43-4 ATS (91.4%) since 1985. As a matter of fact, since 1998, this precise betting angle has gone an even better 31-1 ATS (96.8%). Bet on Florida State minus the points as a 10* Top Play wager. |
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11-19-16 | Duke v. Pittsburgh -7 | Top | 14-56 | Win | 100 | 20 h 5 m | Show |
Duke @ Pittsburgh 3:00 PM ET Play On: Pittsburgh -7.0 (10*) Pittsburgh is coming off a monumental upset at Clemson last week, and did so as a substantial 22.0-point underdog. In case you’re worried about this being a possible letdown spot for the Panthers, consider that Duke is also coming off an upset win over their bitter rival North Carolina. The Blue Devils won that contest 28-27, and did so as a 10.0-point home underdog. Any home favorite of 7.0 to 22.0, coming off a straight up win as an underdog, versus an opponent coming off a conference away underdog of 6.0 or more straight up win, resulted in those home favorite going 17-0 ATS since 2007. The average margin of victory was 21.0 points per game. Bet on Pittsburgh minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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11-12-16 | Southern Miss v. Old Dominion -2.5 | Top | 35-51 | Win | 100 | 7 h 41 m | Show |
Southern Miss @ Old Dominion 3:30 ET Play On: Old Dominion -2.5 Ball security plays a major role in me making this bet. Old Dominion has a turnover margin of +10 while Southern Miss is an atrocious -12. That’s an astound +22 net difference edge for Old Dominion, and in a game the sportsbooks consider to be a virtual even matchup. Old Dominion is a perfect 4-0 SU&ATS at home this season, and 4-1 SU&ATS versus Conference USA opponents with a substantial +22.7 point per game differential. Southern Miss enters this week having lost 3 of their last 4 games. Bet on Old Dominion for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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