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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-10-22 | Colorado v. Air Force -17.5 | 10-41 | Win | 100 | 38 h 49 m | Show | |
Colorado/Air Force 3:30: I don't expect a fall off from AF here. They racked up 582 yards on the ground last week in route of Northern Iowa. Falcons now face a Colorado defense that allowed TCU to run all over them to the tune of 275 yards. The Buffaloes won't have much time to turn around the run stop unit and focus on assignment football to stop the vaunted triple option of Air Force. And the Buffaloes do not have the QB to make any noise against the well disciplined Falcons. Dorrell's QB for the first half last week - Brendon Lewis - threw for a paltry 78 yards before relieved of duties. J. T. Shrout came in the second half and did a bit better - 157 yards and a scoring drive; however, the game was already in the balance. Lay the wood with Air Force, which is 7-1 ATS vs a less than .500 non-conference opponent. |
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09-10-22 | Memphis v. Navy +5 | Top | 37-13 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
Memphis/Navy 3:30: Memphis program eroding ever since Norvell left for Florida State. Silverfield now 0-10 ATS on the road with Memphis. I definitely don't feel comfortable laying points on the road here in a double revenge situation for Navy. Navy is coming off a disappointing loss to Subdivision Delaware Hens. Navy played uncharacteristically sloppy (3 turnovers) against the Hens. Look for the discipline to be instilled this week under well-organized Navy HC Niumatalolo. Memphis, which got lit up in the air against Mississippi State last week, must now turn their attention to assignment football against the Midshipmen Triple-Option. Not an easy transition. Navy sports a 5-2 ATS mark in this series and the home team is 5-0 ATS. Memphis is 0-8 ATS as a favorite of less than 10 points vs an opponent off a SU favorite loss. Grab the points at home with the Midshipmen. |
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09-10-22 | Alabama -20 v. Texas | 20-19 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 20 m | Show | |
Alabama/Texas Noon: Texas probably did a disservice to themselves by blowing out UL-Monroe. They now got Alabama's attention. The Crimson Tide is coming off a 55-0 shellacking of Utah State whom they held to a meager 136 total yards. 'Tide eager to atone for last year's NCAA Championship loss should stay hungry here. And they should be focused here considering they have on deck the very cupcake - UL Monroe - that Texas battered last week. Sure, Sarkisian, former OC for Nick Saban, had a great recruiting class, and landed Ohio State QB transfer Quinn Ewers, who did OK in his debut vs defenseless UL Monroe. Doing just OK against the loaded Alabama defense could be problematic. Alabama All American LB Will Anderson (17' sacks last year) should be keeping Ewers up all week with the cold sweats. Defensively, Longhorns ranked 93rd defensively a year ago and, although improved, UL Monroe is no match for the offensive machine of Bryce Young and company. Saban, who rarely loses to former assistant coaches, lost twice to his disciples last year, including Jimbo Fisher and Kirby Smart. Saturday, he should get back on track in blowing out his former assistants.  |
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09-10-22 | South Carolina +9 v. Arkansas | 30-44 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 37 m | Show | |
South Carolina/Arkansas Noon: Gamecocks are no longer a pushover in the SEC. Last season, Shane Beamer delivered a winning campaign including a bowl win as a double-digit dog against North Carolina. In the offseason, SC had tremendous success in the transfer portal. They nabbed former Heisman favorite Spencer Rattler from Oklahoma and brought his TE Austin Stogner. Moreover, signed one of the top wide receivers in the nation in Antwane Wells Jr. from James Madison. All of them contributed in Week 1 win over Georgia State. Beamer has a lot of the core group of last year back plus a solid recruiting class - better than Arkansas. And just like his highly successful coaching dad - Frank Beamer, Shane has the special teams at peak performance - last week played a huge role in the win with two blocked punts and two 50-yard field goals. Look for the Gamecocks to stick around. |
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09-05-22 | Clemson -23 v. Georgia Tech | 41-10 | Win | 100 | 18 h 55 m | Show | |
Clemson/Georgia Tech 8:00: Clemson could be a mission team this year. They've been out of National Championship contention for a few years but don't discount Dabo Swinney. He still garnered a Top 10 recruiting class, have a devastating Front 7 coming back defensively, and bolstered their skill personnel with 5* QB Cade Klubnik if DJU struggles again. As for Georgia Tech, they've taken a nosedive since Paul Johnson and his Flex Bone left. Geoff Collins has been unable to establish a strong recruiting base in his money burning 10-21-1 ATS ledger. Clemson is breaking in new coordinators but should be fine. Tigers are 5-1-1 ATS in the last 7 in this series. Lay the wood. |
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09-04-22 | Florida State +3.5 v. LSU | 24-23 | Win | 100 | 18 h 23 m | Show | |
Florida State/LSU 7:30: Huge expectations for LSU this year with new hire Brian Kelly. And rightfully so. Kelly was sensational at Notre Dame considering his limitations on recruiting with the high academic standard of the Irish. With LSU, he'll get those 5* recruits. As for today, the Tigers are not where he'd like them to be. His QBs are not home run hitters: Arizona State transfer Jayden Daniels had a mediocre season last year while redshirt freshman Nusmeier is years away from being a threat. LSU lost some stars on both sides of the ball and won't have top RB Emery (academics). On the other hand, Florida State has been quietly getting better since mid-last year under Norvell. They finished on a 5-2 ATS run down the stretch last year and started this season blowing out Duquesne in a tune-up. In that game, they had 3 backs run for 100+ yards each. And yes, they have some push up front on both sides of the ball. Florida State had lots of freshmen starts last year (32%) which was the 3rd highest in the NCAA. And Norvell has lots of returning production and solid dual threat QB in Jordan Travis. Throw in the strong Top 20 recruiting class, and Florida State should be back in business this season. Tonight, we'll look for the cover. |
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09-03-22 | Louisville -4.5 v. Syracuse | 7-31 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 15 m | Show | |
Louisville/Syracuse 8:00: Cardinals rolled the Orange last season to the tune of 41-3 as Malik Cunnigham has 5 TD's in the first half! Sure, Syracuse would love revenge but the previous year Cardinals bludgeoned them 30-9. Go back to 2019, the Cardinals won by 22 points. Simply put, Satterfield owns Babers. The Orange are also thin at QB with last year's starter DeVito transferring to Illinois. With Louisville having a lot of returning production back from last year's bowl season, we'll look for the Cardinals to get off to a good start again. |
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09-03-22 | Memphis v. Mississippi State -16.5 | 23-49 | Win | 100 | 16 h 2 m | Show | |
Memphis/Mississippi State 7:30: Bulldogs had 134 starts by sophomores last season and his team improved dramatically in scoring and stats on both sides of the ball. With that kind of returning production, look for the Bulldogs to get out of the gate strong this year. They face an eroding Memphis team under Silverfield in his third year as HC. Tigers 0-9 ATS on the road with him thus far. We'll lay the wood here.  |
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09-03-22 | Houston v. UTSA +4 | Top | 37-35 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
Houston/UTSA 3:30: Houston super hyped off their successful 12-win season and an eyeball focused on joining the Big 12 next season. And this one is heavily overweighted with betters pounding Houston. Hype has not been good for Houston; as a matter of fact, since 1949, each time they've come off a double-digit win campaign, they've averaged just 6.5 wins the following year. Holgersen will tease you with a modicum of success and let you down the next. Don't discount UTSA and HC Traylor. They're coming off a highly successful 12-win season themselves. And lots of great skill personnel coming back including QB Frank Harris who can flat out ball. Btw: Roadrunners are 10-1 ATS as a dog of 9 points or less. Grab the points. |
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09-03-22 | Colorado State +31 v. Michigan | 7-51 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 30 m | Show | |
Colorado State/Michigan Noon: Much hyped Wolverines, pre-season ranked 8th in the nation. However, still uncertainty in a few areas. Harbaugh starting QB McNamara today and next week going with sophomore McCarthy. Nevertheless, offense should be solid with lots of returning starters in all areas. Defense, however, is a concern. Lost SEVEN to the NFL and not the easiest thing to sort out for week one. Colorado State is now run by Jay Norvell who produced a good offense at Nevada and went bowling his final 4 years there. He brought with him QB Clay Millen and a pair of solid receivers in Horton and Stovall. In addition, got 13 players from the transfer portal. Colorado State was respectable under defensive minded Addazio. The Rams' defense is led by returning linebackers Carter and Jackson who produced a majority of their tackles. Interestingly, the Rams were in virtually every game last season except the last game of the season vs Norvell's Nevada team which trashed them 52-10. We'll look for the Rams to cover here. |
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09-01-22 | Penn State v. Purdue +3.5 | 35-31 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 15 m | Show | |
Penn State/Purdue 8:00: Penn State has dominated this series to the tune of an 8-0 run but haven't met since 2019. The Nittany Lions regressed last season losing 6 of their last 8 games; moreover, statistically went backwards both on offense and defense. Sure, QB Clifford has his OC back and a star freshman RB; however, lost a top receiver (Bell) to the NFL and have to break in 3 new offensive linemen. They had one of the worst run games in the Big 10 (13th) at 107.8 YPG. On the other hand, Purdue's HC Jeff Brohm is feeling good off a successful season and bowl win. He has his star QB Aidan O'Connell back and added Iowa's explosive WR Charlie Jones, who was the Big Ten Return Specialist winner. Purdue is a dangerous dog at home and I'll grab the points. |
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09-01-22 | West Virginia +7 v. Pittsburgh | 31-38 | Push | 0 | 120 h 27 m | Show | |
West Virginia/Pittsburgh 7:00: Pittsburgh's Narduzzi surely has his Panthers heading in the right direction. They're coming off a stellar 2021 season, have their whole offensive line back, some good defenders back, and added some blue-chip players (QB Kedon Slovis, WR Mumpfield) to replace QB Pickett (NFL) and defector WR Jordan Addison (USC). However, they won't have CB Mathis in a young secondary. West Virginia no joke. HC Neal Brown may be just 17-18 SU there in his 3 years for the Mounties, but he's a solid coach and a dangerous dog. His Mounties out recruited Pittsburgh and he's got some talent to work with. Former Trojan and Georgia Bulldog - J.T. Daniels is an upgrade and he's protected by experienced offensive line and good skill personnel. And lineman Dante Stills anchors a solid line in a well-coached defense that's young but hungry. With the dog in this series at 4-1 ATS, we'll grab the points. |
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09-01-22 | Central Michigan +21.5 v. Oklahoma State | 44-58 | Win | 100 | 3 h 38 m | Show | |
Central Michigan/Oklahoma State 7:00: Tonight, it's unlikely the Chippewas will go into Stillwater and knock off the Cowboys like they did in 2016. That loss left a bad taste in Gundy's mouth but the players in that game are no longer on the field. And Central Michigan HC Mcelwain, who's been on the Chippewas' sideline since 2019, has reloaded with a pretty good team. Last season, CM finished on a 6-1 SU/ATS roll, including upsetting Washington State in the Sun Bowl. He fielded many underclassmen, and that experience will help starting the season tonight. Most of his entire offensive line that led RB Lew Nichols to 1,848 rushing yards is back. With Nichols, QB Richardson and WR Dallas Dixon leading the skill personnel, Chippewas have a fighting chance to stay in this one. And Okie State lost some key defensive personnel from their top Big 12 defense. And their defensive coordinator - Tim Knowles - bolted to Ohio State. Former Vanderbilt HC Derek Mason takes over to guide a defense that lost 6 of the top 8 tacklers. Defensively, Chippewas were tops in the nation in TFL's last season and bring back a respectable cast of players. They'll have their work cut out for them against Spencer Sanders and company. We'll look for CM to stay in this one and cover. |
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08-27-22 | Vanderbilt -9.5 v. Hawaii | 63-10 | Win | 100 | 21 h 56 m | Show | |
Vanderbilt/Hawaii 10:30 Under normal season conditions, teams traveling to Hawaii have trouble there. Teams get caught up in the festivities, oceanic views, pretty women, and the adjustment to the time zone. The Commodores were bad last year but managed to be competitive in the dominant SEC down the stretch of the season covering 5 of their last 6 games. This season, Vanderbilt has a more mature team this year with more speed, a solid recruiting class (32nd in nation), and HC Lea should have them more defensively sound than a year ago. On the other hand, Hawaii had a dismal offseason - bringing in a new head coach - Timmy Chang - who lost a ton of players through the transfer portal with the dismissal of Todd Graham. The recruiting rank under Chang was in the bottom tier of the NCAA Division I. Should be a tough season for the former record setting QB and it starts tonight. Lay the wood with Vanderbilt. |
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08-27-22 | Northwestern +11.5 v. Nebraska | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 10 h 31 m | Show | |
Northwestern/Nebraska 12:30: Both teams finished at 3-9 last season. The lone win for Nebraska was a 56-7 white washing of the Wildcats in Nebraska. Northwestern had a pitiful offense last season but did a decent job on the recruiting trail this season. And they do have some decent returning starters from last year. NW HC Pat Fitzgerald is dangerous as a dog with revenge vs a sub .500 team at 9-1 ATS. The 'Cats are also 5-2 ATS in August football. We'll take the double digits on this neutral field in Ireland. |
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01-10-22 | Georgia -2.5 v. Alabama | Top | 33-18 | Win | 100 | 18 h 18 m | Show |
Georgia/Alabama 8:00: Kirby Smart assembled his best team yet and he's overdue to finally beat his mentor -Saban. In the SEC Championship, Alabama QB Bryce Young was able to set his feet and make amazing throws in tight windows of a step slow Georgia defense. Smart will surely make the needed adjustments with his amazing versatile athletes of Dean and Travon Walker while not tiring out mammoth DL Jordan Davis - like he was on December 4th. The good news for Georgia and a key loss for Alabama is 1000+ receiving yard WR John Meche III (out). He was a key part in that game (6 receptions for 97 yards and a TD) before his injury. Now the Bulldogs' secondary can focus their attention on Alabama superstar receiver Jameson Williams. The 'Dogs can either roll coverage to him, bracket him or double him leaving Bryce Young without a proven secondary downfield threat. On the offensive side of the ball, Bulldogs will establish heavy doses of RB Zamir White behind their dominant offensive line coupled with play action to superstar TE Brock Bowers - that no defense has found an answer for. QB Stetson Bennett has progressively gotten better after adversity and we'll look for his moment of glory to arrive as a solid game manager. Interesting stat is Georgia is a sweet 14-0-1 ATS as a favorite of less than 13 points with revenge. We'll look for Kirby Smart to finally get the best of Saban. |
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01-04-22 | LSU v. Kansas State -7 | 20-42 | Win | 100 | 20 h 31 m | Show | |
LSU/Kansas State 9:00: Long list of opt outs on the LSU game. They're coming off two big wins under their interim coach while Kelly waits in the wings. But question their motivation here. They'll be without star LB Clark and DL Farrell Jr.. Consequently, K State will focus on pounding the football with their 320 lb average offensive line to free up 1200+ rusher Deuce Vaughn. And QB Skylar Thompson (69% completions) (leg) is good to go. Meanwhile, LSU is undecided on QB with transfer Max Johnson opting out. They have unproven QBs Nussmeier, Faulk and Kirklin unsettled on. Most likely lean on RB Kiner who is replacing opt out 1000+ rusher Davis-Price. Kansas State equipped with playmakers including DE Felix Anudike-Uzomah who has 11 sacks and 14 1/2 TFLs. Should see K State wear down the Tigers similar to what Kentucky did to them earlier in the season. K State the call. |
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01-01-22 | Utah +4 v. Ohio State | 45-48 | Win | 100 | 13 h 36 m | Show | |
Utah/Ohio State 5:00: Ohio State sported the #1 offense in the nation but comes into this one a virtual shell of that regular season roster. Star opt outs include their two top receivers Wilson (1,058 yards) and Olave (936 yards), their top OL Petit-Frere. C.J. Stroud is a very good QB but only as good as his surrounding talent. He faces a tough Utah defense that gets after the QB with 3.2 sacks per game, a big time linebacker and solid secondary. And Utah is no slouch offensively with QB Cameron Rising (18 TDs/5 INTs/ 2279 yards) and a 1000+ rusher w/ 20 TDs in Tavion Thomas. OSU had its share of problems defensively this season and have a few opt outs on that side of the ball too with Haskell Garrett out. Utah HC Whittingham a strong 7-2 SU in last 9 bowl games and lead his team to a strong finish with a blowout of Oregon in PAC 12 Championship. Utah still hungry though as they are first time in the history of the program going to the Rose Bowl. OSU, on the other hand, OSU had higher aspirations (CFB playoffs) and I question their motivation. Utah the call.  |
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01-01-22 | Oklahoma State v. Notre Dame | 37-35 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show | |
Oklahoma State/Notre Dame 1:00: Mike Gundy posts an outstanding 7-2 ATS ledger in bowls since 2012, including 5-0 run. And this year, defense has been the strength of the team posting a Top 10 defense nationally. DC Jim Knowles is off to Ohio State in the same capacity. Oklahoma State has 4 defensive assistants and a grad assistant guiding the defense while Gundy overlooks the plan. The players know their roles and shouldn't miss a beat. On the other hand, Notre Dame opens a new era with Marcus Freeman as their head coach. Players are with him but the Irish won't have leading rusher Kyren Williams (NFL prep) or OL Josh Lugg. Oklahoma State posts nearly 4 sacks per game and should give QB Jack Coan trouble. Oklahoma State offense should have their top rusher - Warren - back after he missed the Big 12 Title game. His difference was notable in that loss to Baylor. QB Spencer Sanders doesn't have the pressure on him like season past Oklahoma State QBs. Based on personnel and bowl history, Oklahoma State has the edge and we'll jump on them here. |
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12-31-21 | Georgia v. Michigan +7.5 | Top | 34-11 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 5 m | Show |
Michigan/Georgia 7:30: Michigan coming into this one with lots of confidence after blowing out Ohio State and winning the Big 10 Championship decisively. Georgia, on the other hand, came out of the SEC Championship with a lot of uncertainty after getting blasted by Alabama. Georgia's Smart doesn't lose often but is only 1-4 ATS off a SU loss. Not convinced they're 7.5 favorites here. Michigan is very well balanced in every facet of the game. Wolverines possess an outstanding offensive line (Joe Moore Award winner) to counter the formidable defensive front of Georgia. Wolverines' run game with Haskins and Blake Corum is the best the Bulldogs face this season. And QB McNamara has been an excellent game manager who limits mistakes (only 3 INTs in 264 attempts). His numbers (2,301 yards, 14 TDs, 64% Comp) don't jump off the page but his on-field leadership is tremendous. And he has a solid receiving corps including clutch TE Erick All. As for the Bulldogs' offense, their TE Brock Bowers will surely be the focal point of the passing game and Michigan should be well prepared to counter. Georgia's QB Bennett a solid game manager but he can be rattled in big games as his 2 INT's in the Alabama game suggests. And Michigan has a solid run-stop unit that surely respects Geogia's powerful run game but has demonstrated that it can limit explosive plays (#4 in points allowed). Moreover, they can rush the passer with Hutchinson and Ojabo collecting a combined 25 sacks! With these teams matching well, I'm taking the points with the hungry underdog that finally got over the hump in the Harbaugh era and raging with confidence. |
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12-31-21 | Cincinnati +14 v. Alabama | 6-27 | Loss | -112 | 14 h 26 m | Show | |
Cincinnati/Alabama 3:30: Big step up here for the Bearcats but they're ready for the big stage. This veteran team proved its worth in last year's Peach Bowl vs Georgia with a competitive 24-21 loss as an 8.5 dog. With the nucleus of that team back here, they're not going to be intimidated in this spot. Bearcats possess arguably the best secondary in the NCAA with corners Gardner and Bryant. They can sack the QB (37) and opportunistic (18 interceptions). QB Bryce Young was fabulous vs Georgia in the SEC Championship and sliced and diced Georgia's secondary. Cincinnati's defensive staff had the opportunity to break down the film and make the adjustments with their outstanding secondary personnel. This is not one of the better offensive lines of Alabama. They've given up nearly 2.7 sacks per game and the run game is 81st in the nation. Keep in mind that Bearcats' HC Fickell was part of the Ohio State defensive staff that beat the 2014 Alabama team in the Playoff Semi-Finals en-route to winning it all that season. Offensively, Bearcats can move the football with veteran signal caller Desmond Ridder (3190 yards, 30 TDs/8 INTs). And he can hurt teams with his feet (361 yards/6 TDs). And RB Jerome Ford (1242 yards/19 TDs) who transferred from Alabama is surely capable of accumulating yards behind a very good offensive line. Cincinnati 5-0 ATS as a dog and 6-0 ATS vs teams above .500. We'll take the two TDs. |
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12-30-21 | Pittsburgh +3 v. Michigan State | 21-31 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 53 m | Show | |
Pittsburgh/MSU 7:00: No secret that both of these teams' top stars are opting out (NFL). Spartans won't have their Doak Walker Award winner Kenneth Walker III and Pittsburgh will be without Heisman Trophy finalist QB Kenny Pickett. With all facets of game considered, Pittsburgh has the edge. Panthers have a Top 10 offensive line in the nation, Biletnikoff Award WR Jordan Addison and shifty, versatile RB Abanikanda. and 6'6" TE Lucas Krull that can help out backup QB Nick Patti (12 of 14 this season). Michigan State pass defense is one of the worst in the nation - allowing 338 yards per game. On the other hand, Pittsburgh defense is one of the best run stop units in the nation (#6). Remember, Pittsburgh HC Narduzzi was a tremendous DC for Michigan State before he took over Pittsburgh's HC duties. Panthers 12-5 ATS in December, 6-1 ATS vs teams above .500 and beat Top 25 Teams in 5 of the last 6 years. Michigan State a concerning 1-8 ATS as a favorite vs an opponent off back-to-back SU wins. Panthers the call.  |
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12-30-21 | South Carolina v. North Carolina -10 | 38-21 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 34 m | Show | |
South Carolina/North Carolina 11:30: Hard to imagine Mack Brown losing two straight bowl games. North Carolina easily underachieved this year and Brown should have his men well prepared; after all, he has his NFL bound QB Sam Howell available and a good amount of weaponry at his disposal in the #9 offense in the nation. South Carolina played great defense this year but offensively stuck in neutral. QB Jason Brown performed mediocre with 56% completions, 8 TDs and 6 INTs. He has a pretty good RB in White and decent receivers. And NC defense is nothing to write home about. However, unlikely SC can trade points effectively with the Tar Heels. NC will score and I would be surprised if SC can slow this game down and keep the Tar Heels off the field. Tar Heels coming off a season ending loss at NC State and in an ornery mood. They're 9-4 ATS off a SU loss under Brown and should deliver here. |
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12-29-21 | Oregon v. Oklahoma -6.5 | 32-47 | Win | 100 | 19 h 12 m | Show | |
Oregon/Oklahoma 9:15: Legendary Sooners' former head coach Bob Stoops steps in to coach this game and should do well holding the program together in the interim until Venerables leads them next year. On the other hand, Cristobal bailed and Ducks' assistant McClendon will lead until Dan Lanning steps in for the 2022 season. Didn't like how the Ducks finished the season losing in blowout fashion to the Utes in 2 of their final 3 games. The 38-10 burial in the PAC12 Championship was not a good indication of a team with much heart after getting stomped by the same Utes team 38-7 a few weeks earlier. Sure, the Sooners won't have 4 defensive starters for this one but have quality reserves that got plenty of reps during the season. And Ducks' QB Anthony Brown is surely no Justin Herbert. On the other hand, Oregon has its share of opt outs including pass rush specialist Thibodeaux. Sooners' QB Caleb Williams is a playmaker and he has a solid supporting cast. We'll lay the points with Oklahoma. |
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12-28-21 | Louisville v. Air Force +1.5 | Top | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 20 h 15 m | Show |
Air Force/Louisville 3:15: Air Force leads the FBS in rushing with 341 YPG with multiple backs gobbling up chunks of yardage. QB Daniels runs the offense well and he sports 5 YPC in his 705 yards rushing. Sure, Louisville had 2 1/2 weeks to overcome getting gashed (362 rush yards) by Kentucky; however, very tough to simulate the precision, speed, rhythmic motion of the Falcons' triple option attack with a scout team. That kind of speed and precision can't be simulated. Cardinals' defense allowed 157 YPG during regular season. Defensively, AF is fundamentally sound in all areas and a Top 10 defense in terms of yards allowed. They have playmakers at all levels. Cardinals' versatile QB Malik Cunningham is a major playmaker and won't be stopped. AF has the discipline to contain him to a certain extent. AF has done well in bowl games and rise to the occasion as its 23-9 ATS non-conference and 6-2 ATS bowl ledger suggests. Cardinals 0-3-1 ATS vs MWC. Air Force the call. |
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12-28-21 | Houston +2 v. Auburn | 17-13 | Win | 100 | 18 h 23 m | Show | |
Houston/Auburn Noon: Both of these teams have coaches with a troubling history of bowl losses and now on teams with a brief history of bowl losses. With all personnel together, Auburn would be TD favorite in this one but all personnel is not together for the Tigers. Auburn won't have key offensive cogs: QB Nix (Oregon transfer), RT Brodarious Hamm (NFL draft prep); sure, QB T.J. Finley was an adequate sub in the final two games including almost the monumental upset of Alabama. But credit the Auburn defense and major miscues by Alabama more. And key Tigers' defensive personnel - LB McCain and All-American C McCreary. And let's not forget the change in OC for Auburn as Boba was fired in November. Austin Davis steps in to fill the role. Just too much change to create a smooth-running team going into this one. Houston is not without key players skipping this one. Explosive KR utility guy Marcus Jones opted out (NFL draft prep) but overall, Houston maintains the nucleus of its team. QB Clayton Tune (28/9 TD/INT), leading rusher McCaskill lead a pretty potent offense that dropped 37.3 PPG on opponents this season and only coughed up the ball twice all season. Defensively, the Cougars ranked #6 in the nation in total yards allowed and allowed just 21 PPG (#28). Sure, Auburn had the way tougher schedule in the SEC but the lack of their top playmakers should disrupt their chemistry. Houston coming into this one with more continuity and worth taking as a small dog. |
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12-25-21 | Ball State +6 v. Georgia State | 20-51 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 51 m | Show | |
Georgia State/Ball State 2:30: We won't sleep on Ball State which exploded out of the gate last year in their bowl win last year as an 8 point underdog vs San Jose State in a 34-13 win which was more lopsided than the final score indicated. This season, Ball State underachieved with virtually the same veteran players (leniency law allowed seniors to return another year in 2021). Yes, the Cardinals have their respectable line and skill players including QB Drew Pitt and his solid targets in Jackson, Hall and Tyler. And RB Carson Steele ran for a solid 829 yards with 6 TDs. Defensively, they're underrated. They're tough in the red zone and opportunistic forcing 15 turnovers. Georgia State is definitely confidant coming into this one with a strong 7-5/ 8-4 ATS ledger with a strong offense and surging defense. They're confident they can run all over the Ball State defense with their deep backfield and versatile QB, but I'm not buying it. Cardinals are 10-4 ATS as a dog, 14-5 ATS vs teams above .500 and 4-0 in December. This Bowl has historically been close in scoring and I expect that here. Take the Cardinals. |
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12-23-21 | Central Florida v. Florida -6.5 | 29-17 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 18 m | Show | |
UCF/Florida 7:00: Lots of action on UCF which went on a 5-1 SU/3-3 ATS down the stretch. A closer look at those wins reveals wins against lightweights Memphis, Temple, Tulane, Connecticut and USF; moreover, a closer look at notable season wins reveals Boise State out of the MWC. Meanwhile, Florida has been battling vs heavyweight SEC competition including trading blows with #1 Alabama in a 31-29 loss but easy cover (12). Sure, QB Anthony Richardson and NFL bound DE Zach Carter opted out but the prospects of the Gators are looking bright with new HC Napier. Special Teams Coordinator Greg Knox takes over in the interim and has a number of 5* athletes who will be auditioning for Napier's staff. QB Emory Jones has a number of starts for Florida and will be auditioning for a number of Power 5 Conference teams as he enters the transfer portal. Bottom line is that UCF's HC Malzahn is several top recruiting classes behind the Gators. Knights just 1-4 ATS as a dog. Gators 12-5 as neutral site favorite. With the athlete disparity, the Gators should keep it together tonight in a win and cover. |
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12-23-21 | Miami-OH v. North Texas +1 | 27-14 | Loss | -106 | 2 h 30 m | Show | |
Miami OH/North Texas 3:30: North Texas took it on the chin early but went 5-0 down the stretch to qualify for this bowl. They did it with an improved defense and pounding the football with DeAndre Torrey. Miami-OH got here with more finesse relying on the arm of Brett Gabbert and big play receiver Sorenson. Miami OH defense pretty solid as well. NT faced a more difficult schedule banging favorably with the likes of bowl teams UTEP and UTSA. And favorable external factors for NT here. They'll be playing nearby in Denton, Texas - essentially a home game for the Mean Green; in addition, more experience playing on natural grass than their counterpart; as a matter of fact, Miami-OH hasn't played on a grass field since September 4, 2010. Miami-OH just 4-13 ATS in non-conference and 2-5 vs Conference USA. We'll look for the Mean Green to pound it out on the ground successfully here. |
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12-22-21 | Missouri v. Army -6.5 | 22-24 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 46 m | Show | |
Missouri/Army 8:00: Army got over their biggest loss of the season to Navy and appear to be focused on Missouri. Black Knights couldn't get their run game going vs a tenacious Navy defense but should bounce back here; after all, they face one of the worst run-stop-units in the nation. Missouri defense yields 228.8 YPG which is 125th out of 130 FBS teams. Army's vaunted triple option attack, which requires a defense to prepare for disciplined assignment football approach, grinds out 286.4 YPG (#2 nationally). Moreover, both their QBs are respectable throwing when the occasion calls for it. Army's Anderson and Tyler have combined for 9 TD passes with 0 INTs. Defensively, Army posts the #15 ranked defense in terms of yards allowed. Sure, competition level was severely less than Missouri - which battles in the tough SEC. However, Missouri will be without the their key weapon - Tyler Badie who posts impressive numbers- 1604 rush yards, 330 yards receiving and combined 18 TDs! He opted out to prepare for the NFL draft. On top of that, Missouri is going with a new QB Brady Cook who will make his first career collegiate start. He beat out Bazelak who was ineffective in the final game of the season; consequently, should be hard to establish a well-orchestrated offense with limited prep time. Army has been a solid bowl team under Monken at 3-1 ATS. We'll roll with Army |
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12-21-21 | San Diego State v. UTSA +3 | 38-24 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 60 m | Show | |
UTSA/San Diego State 7:30: UTSA won't have their top RB McCormick who's prepping for the NFL draft. He was a huge part of the running game and a big loss; however, UTSA offense no one trick pony. The Roadrunners are equipped with great athletes including versatile QB Frank Harris who passed for nearly 3000 yards with 25 TD passes and only 5 INTs. Moreover, he ran for 565 yards and 6 TDs. Roadrunners have decent depth at RB with Brady and B.J. Daniels who both run for nearly 5 YPG behind a veteran, physical offensive line. And wideouts Franklin and Cephus, who've collectively accumulated over 1700 yards receiving and 17 TD catches, should be able to expose the SDSU secondary that was torched against Utah State last week in the MWC Championship. Sure, SDSU will show up today, they're well coached; however, offense too pedestrian to penetrate a physical and athletic UTSA defense. We'll take the Roadrunners. |
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12-20-21 | Tulsa v. Old Dominion +9.5 | 30-17 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 7 m | Show | |
Old Dominion/Tulsa 2:30: Tulsa played a tough schedule and were competitive against some elite teams, including taking #4 Cincinnati to the wire in a controversial loss. However, Old Dominion no pushover. They started the year sluggish after no games last year due to Covid, but turned things around after their bye week reeling off 5 straight wins and covers. Monarchs are solid on both sides of the ball. Tulsa has a pretty strong run game led by Shamari Brooks but QB Brin has thrown 16 INTs this season. Old Dominion is well disciplined defensively with an opportunistic secondary. Offensively, the Monarchs started cooking offensively when inserting red shirt freshman Hayden Wolf. He's put up some good numbers and has a solid vertical threat in WR Jennings and a 6'8" match-up nightmare in the red zone with TE Kuntz. Moreover, a 1000+ yard rusher in Blake Watson behind a sturdy offensive line. Old Dominion went 8-3 ATS vs non-conference foes. Not crazy about Tulsa laying near double-digits here. They're just 2-6 ATS vs C-USA. Take Old Dominion. |
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12-18-21 | UAB +7 v. BYU | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 14 h 2 m | Show | |
UAB/BYU 3:30: Seemingly, #13 BYU should be giving more points than a TD; after all, they've beaten 5 PAC 12 teams and beat Virginia of the ACC. UAB is a dangerous dog under Bill Clark. He built the Blazers out the depth of ashes after UAB disbanded for the 2016-17 years. He's got a veteran team that won the C-USA Title last year and turned in some strong performances this year. There have been underachieving performances as well, but Clark's covered 2 straight bowls and brings a hungry team to Shreveport where they'll have more fan support than BYU. The Blazers' defense is stout: #1 in C-USA in terms of yardage. They're run stop unit is 11th in the nation in stopping the run and BYU's Allgeier is surely their focus today. And the Blazers have a respectable line on both sides of the ball. Defensively, they average 2.6 sacks per game and have a well disciplined secondary to limit QB Hall. Offensively, they're a veteran group that's physical and can run the rock with 1100 yard rusher DeWayne McBride. Dylan Hopkins is a capable field general with a solid supporting cast of receivers. We'll look for UAB to gain ground, eat clock and cover this this game. |
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12-18-21 | UTEP v. Fresno State -12 | 24-31 | Loss | -108 | 1 h 38 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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12-18-21 | Appalachian State -2.5 v. Western Kentucky | 38-59 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 58 m | Show | |
Western Kentucky/Appalachian State 11:00: Western Kentucky has a juggernaut for an offense with the nation's #1 passer Bailey Zappe who posts video game numbers in the #2 offense in the nation. Defensively, they're yielding (28.7 PPG allowed). Appalachian State, on the other hand, runs the football well (187.6 YPG), has a competent QB in Chase Brice, and plays bang up defense allowing just 19.3 PPG. The Mountaineers have a veteran defense with a good rush and ball hawking secondary. Mountaineers 6-0 in Bowls and have taken out Bowl contenders Coastal Carolina, East Carolina, Georgia State and Marshall. They're coming off a loss to ULL for Sun Belt Championship. Western Kentucky, coming off a loss to UTSA for CSUSA Championship, just 1-6 ATS vs Sun Belt Conference. Mounties 4-1 ATS neutral site favorite and we'll grab them here. |
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12-17-21 | Coastal Carolina -10.5 v. Northern Illinois | 47-41 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 41 m | Show | |
NIU/CCU 6:00: Northern Illinois coming off big MAC Championship win to cap off a tremendous season. I don't believe they have what it takes to cover this game, however, Coastal Carolina on a mission to win this bowl after failing in this same bowl last year. CC has the 6th ranked offense in terms of PPG with 40.4 led by passing efficiency leader Grayson McCall. He has multiple weapons including a prolific run game with RB Shermari Jones and 1000+ receiver Heiligh. NIU gives up way too many yards on the ground (216 YPG); consequently, should open up more explosive plays for a defense that's given up the big play routinely. NIU does have a decent offense led by QB Lombardi and RB Ducker. CCU more disciplined on the defensive end however. And they can bring the pass rush (32 sacks). Technically, NIU 0-6 ATS in Bowl Games and 2-8 ATS as a dog. We'll lay the points with the Chanticleers. |
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12-11-21 | Navy +7 v. Army | 17-13 | Win | 100 | 12 h 25 m | Show | |
Army/Navy 3:00: Army has gotten the best of this series in recent years at 5-2 ATS including last year's 15-0 shutout. Niumatalolo pretty good in a revenge mode and had his men cover 7 of the last 9 games after a rough start. Army is clearly the more complete team with a better defense, better run game and QB. But don't count the Midshipmen out, they're 5-1 ATS with extra rest and covered 6 of their last 8 dog roles. They'll have extra motivation playing for their fallen comrade Bourgeois. Take the points. |
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12-04-21 | Houston +10.5 v. Cincinnati | 20-35 | Loss | -108 | 14 h 54 m | Show | |
Houston/Cincinnati 4:00: Houston no easy out. Since losing their season opener to Texas Tech, the Cougars rattled off 11 straight wins. They have a Top 20 defense in points allowed, and they get after the passer (3.58 sacks per game). Bearcats' QB Ridder is good but this is one of the better defenses he's faced this season besides ND. What is troublesome for Cincinnati is their kicking game. And Houston has the most explosive return specialist in the nation in Marcus Jones who has run back 6 kickoff returns and 3 punt returns. Moreover, Cougars can move the football. QB Tune completed 69% of his passes with 26 TDs and 8 INTs. He has a solid line and good supporting help in skill positions. We'll look for Houston to hang around in this one. |
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12-04-21 | Appalachian State v. UL-Lafayette +3 | Top | 16-24 | Win | 100 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
Appalachian State/UL-Lafayette 3:30: Appalachian State eager to exact revenge on the Ragin' Cajuns after their October 12th 41-13 beatdown. Sure, the Mountaineers have been on a winning mission since, simplifying their offense and playing stellar defense en-route to a 6-0 SU/5-1 ATS tear. And the Mountaineers have beaten UL-L in the last two Sun Belt Championships. But don't count the Ragin Cajuns out. Sure, Billy Napier is headed to Florida but he insists on coaching this final game to guide his men to what has eluded him in his outstanding tenure at bringing back UL-L football to respectability. He's got a great defense, a veteran, versatile QB Levi Lewis and a hungry group of men. And the Cajuns do not lose at home. We'll look for Napier and his boys to go out winners. |
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12-04-21 | Utah State v. San Diego State -3.5 | 46-13 | Loss | -109 | 16 h 39 m | Show | |
Utah State/San Diego State 3:00: This line has stayed steady on some books but has gotten as high as -6' in others. We won't waiver from the near TD favorite with the Aztecs. Aztecs physically beat up the Aggies last year in a 38-7 beat down. This year, SDS still has a legitimate Top 10 scoring defense allowing just 17.3 PPG. This year, Utah State does have a new QB in Arizona State transfer Logan Bonner who has some solid weapons including dangerous wideout Devin Thomkins. Not to worry SDS backers. The Aztecs have a ball hawking secondary with 15 INTs led by Sr. CB Taylor Hawkins. And the Aggies have had trouble at times protecting Bonner. That doesn't bode well for them with the Aggies fierce defensive front led by sack master Cameron Thomas (10 sacks). On the other side of the ball, SDS likes to control the clock with a bruising run game behind a physical offensive line. Aztecs rush for 178 YPG. Bottom line, if you look at Utah State's losses this season, they come vs physical teams that beat them handily on the line of scrimmage: Wyoming bludgeoned them on the ground in a 44-17 demolition; BYU pounded them 34-24 and Boise State throttled them 27-3. Utah State 0-12 ATS as dogs of less than 24 points vs .700 opponents. Sure, SDS has not been a good favorite but in this instance, brute force should dominate finesse. Aztecs the call. |
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11-27-21 | Clemson -11.5 v. South Carolina | 30-0 | Win | 100 | 7 h 28 m | Show | |
11-27-21 | Florida State +3 v. Florida | 21-24 | Push | 0 | 11 h 42 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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11-27-21 | Ohio State -7 v. Michigan | 27-42 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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11-27-21 | Maryland v. Rutgers +2 | 40-16 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 25 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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11-26-21 | North Carolina +6.5 v. NC State | 30-34 | Win | 100 | 18 h 46 m | Show | |
North Carolina/NC State 7:00: North Carolina has been an underachiever this year. The Tar Heels were a Pre-Season Top 10 selection with some having them as a possible BCS team. And although they have 5 losses, only one of them was bad (Georgia Tech). Mack Brown teams stay in games and always dangerous as a dog. Tonight, no different. Brown and North Carolina can play the spoiler and knock its in-state rival out of the ACC Championship game. NC has covered 4 straight in this series, present an explosive offense with QB Sam Howell (probable) and his multitude of weapons. Sure, defensively the Tar Heels give up points. However, their offense is hard to stop. And yes, Tar Heels have struggled on the road but remember, Chapel Hill is a mere 30 minute ride down the 1 40E to Raleigh. Wolfpack just 1-6 ATS off a SU win of 20+. With the road team 6-2 SU in this series, take the Tar Heels and the points. |
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11-26-21 | Cincinnati v. East Carolina +14 | 35-13 | Loss | -104 | 15 h 47 m | Show | |
Cincinnati/East Carolina 3:30: If Cincinnati thinks they're going into Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium to blow out the Pirates like they did in Cincinnati, they have another thing coming. East Carolina is a veteran team that's well balanced on both sides of the ball. Offensively, QB Ahlers has progressively gotten better each year as a four year starter. He has a solid line and really good skill player support in versatile RB Keaton Mitchell and receivers C.J. Johnson and Tyler Snead. Last time the Bearcats visited Greenville, Ahlers lit their secondary up for 535 yard and 4 TDs in a 43-46 loss as a 24' dog. Last season, turnovers did them in at Cincinnati as the Bearcats capitalized on them quickly. Defensively, the Pirates are no longer a welcome mat like they were under Scottie Mongomery. They've shored up their defense in two years and now bring an opportunistic (13 takeaways) veteran defense to the field. East Carolina a dangerous 8-1 ATS vs teams above .500, 8-1 ATS vs conference foes, and 5-0-1 as a dog. Bearcats 0-7 ATS as conference favorites vs a greater than .500 team off ATS win. We'll grab the two TDs here with the home team. |
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11-26-21 | Iowa v. Nebraska -1 | Top | 28-21 | Loss | -108 | 20 h 33 m | Show |
Iowa/Nebraska 1:30: Nebraska showing progress in every category except the scoreboard. They're in virtually every game covering their last two, including dropping 351 yards passing on a stingy Wisconsin defense. And in this series, Frost's Cornhuskers have covered the last 3 but lost SU. We'll look for Frost to finally get his team in the SU win column here. Iowa has lost the statistical battle in their last 5 games and went 1-4 ATS during that frame. Iowa defense not what it was earlier in the season. Nebraska QB Martinez has been around for the entire Frost era and we'll look for him to go out with a win here. Nebraska the call. |
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11-26-21 | Eastern Michigan +9 v. Central Michigan | 10-31 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 6 m | Show | |
Eastern Michigan/Central Michigan Noon: Michigan MAC Title on the line and we'll grab the Eagles. EMU looking for their first 8 win season since 1987 and they should make a solid run for the money here. EMU HC Chris Creighton has done a great job building this program and this would do wonders for his recruiting efforts going forward. The Eagles got their run game going with Jawon Hamilton (187 yards vs Western Michigan) on the 16th and we'll see the carry over effect here. Sure, CM has been rolling teams the last three weeks but don't discard the Eagles. They stick around in games. Eagles a sweet 21-6 ATS as a road dog, 13-4-1 ATS on the road vs a team with a winning home record. And they're a sweet 8-0 ATS as a weekday road dog. Eagles looking to avenge last year's 31-23 home loss should keep this one tight.  |
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11-23-21 | Western Michigan -3.5 v. Northern Illinois | 42-21 | Win | 100 | 19 h 60 m | Show | |
Western Michigan/Northern Illinois 7:00: Northern Illinois clinched the MAC West title last week at Buffalo and they can't help taking a peak into next week's MAC Championship Game. As for Western Michigan, a team with enough wins for a bowl game but could use another win to clearly get off the bubble. The thing about Western Michigan is they've underachieved. The Broncos have outgained every single opponent this year yet sit one game above .500. Remember, these Broncos upset Pittsburgh back on September 18th. Their defense is pretty solid (34th in Total Yardage) and sport an explosive offense with a 1000+ yard rusher in Sean Tyler, versatile QB Eleby, and a very good receiving corps including 1000+ yard receiver Skyy Moore. That doesn't match up well with NIU's defense which has struggled vs the run (allow 5.7 YPC), difficulty sacking QB (1.1 per game), and allow a generous 33 PPG. Huskies have a quality QB in Michigan State transfer Rocky Lombardi but he is at his best when the run game is cooking. WM plays the run pretty well and can bring QB pressure (3 sacks per game). NIU may even rest some starters here. Huskies just 1-3-1 ATS as a home dog, 1-4 ATS on Tuesday. Tonight, we'll look for NIU's luck to run out as Western Michigan cleans up their game and delivers. |
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11-20-21 | Syracuse +11.5 v. NC State | Top | 17-41 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 38 m | Show |
Syracuse/NC State 4:00: Good value with a Syracuse team that last week got ambushed early at Louisville and couldn't recover. But not so fast in dismissing the Orange; after all, they're 6-0 ATS off a SU loss and 9-1 ATS off a SU loss of 20+. Orange have the #1 run game in the ACC with 1300+ yard rusher Sean Tucker and versatile QB Garrett Shrader who between them have 24 rushing TDs. And when the run game is going, Schrader can get into a groove passing. Defensively, they have a Top 25 defense that can get after the QB (3.3 sacks per game). NC State is coming off a disappointing 45-42 loss to Wake Forest in a game they expended everything in the tank on. Wolfpack just 2-6 ATS after scoring 40+ and 3-9 ATS in November. 'Cuse needs 1 win to be bowl eligible and with Pittsburgh on deck, Syracuse should leave it all on the field in this revenge game. This series is competitive and the road dog is 4-1 ATS. Go Orange! |
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11-20-21 | Michigan -14.5 v. Maryland | 59-18 | Win | 100 | 23 h 48 m | Show | |
Michigan/Maryland 3:30: MD, as expected, freefalling under Locksley - who has loads of 5* recruits but can't do anything with them. Terps on a 1-5 SU/0-6 ATS slide. And the Terps don't match up against the physical style of play of the Wolverines. When Michigan wins the run game battle, they usually win and cover (yes, including at Wisconsin) as exhibited in every game this year. They failed at MSU and Rutgers - although won SU vs the Scarlet Knights. Highly unlikely the weak run game of Maryland will put a dent in the Wolverines' tough run stop unit. Sure, RB Blake Corum is most likely out, but Hassan Haskins is picking up the slack. He's a complete back that can block, catch and rush (985 yards). And Harbaugh finally has a QB McNamara who is an efficient passer (12 TD/2 INT/63% completions). On the other hand, Terps' defense allowing a generous 31.4 PPG. And offensively, QB Tagovailoa should continue to struggle vs the fierce Wolverines' pass rush; moreover, because he's already without his top 2 receivers Demus and Jeshaun Jones, and now F Marcus Fleming. MD 0-8 ATS as a dog of more than 14 points vs an opponent off back-to-back SU wins. Michigan has won and covered 5 straight in this series - most in route fashion. Michigan is 5-0 ATS off back-to-back SU wins vs an opponent with revenge off SU/ATS loss. Michigan the call. |
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11-20-21 | Minnesota -7 v. Indiana | 35-14 | Win | 100 | 22 h 38 m | Show | |
Minnesota/Indiana 3:30: Indiana reeling on an 0-6 SU/1-5 ATS slide in the Big Ten. Just can't get an offense (121st) generated and down to 3rd string signal caller Fr McCulley in his 4th straight start. Minnesota has a solid defense (#7 in nation in total defense) and should keep the Hoosiers' pedestrian attack in check. On the other hand, the physical offensive line of the Gophers should eventually wear down the Hoosiers' tired defense; after all, Minnesota has grinded out 205.5 YPG despite losing their top two running backs. We'll look for veteran signal caller Tanner Morgan to get it together today. Gophers are 21-5 ATS off an ATS loss, 12-3 ATS on the road and 4-1 ATS as road chalk. Minnesota the call. |
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11-17-21 | Central Michigan -1 v. Ball State | 37-17 | Win | 100 | 18 h 19 m | Show | |
Central Michigan/Ball State 7:00: Much on the line for both teams: Ball State looking to be bowl eligible while CM looking to win the MAC West - providing NIU loses last 2 games. My money on CM. The Chippewas looking to avenge last year's loss. And the Chippewas have the coaching and the personnel to do it. They'll lean on Lew Nichols III running the rock who has averaged a ridiculous 178 YPG over the last 5 games. Look for the vulnerable Ball State defense, which has given up explosive plays recently, to get gashed on the run; consequently, efficient QB Richardson (19/2 TD/INT) has the explosive receiving weapons to add to yards and points. On the other hand, Ball State not explosive offensively but eat up yardage. Chippewas improving in getting stops when needed. CM off 2 impressive conference wins and have won their last 2 conference road games. Ball State lost their last 2 home conference games and coming off a disappointing loss at NIU. Balls State 2-5 ATS last 5 at home and just 1-5 in November. Moreover, Cards 0-5 ATS last 5 Wednesday games. On the other hand, CM sports a 14-2-1 ATS mark on Wednesday, 10-2 ATS after scoring 40+ and 23-9 ATS in November. With the road team 5-0 ATS in this series, we'll look for sweet revenge for the Chippewas. |
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11-16-21 | Western Michigan v. Eastern Michigan +5.5 | 21-22 | Win | 100 | 18 h 37 m | Show | |
Western Michigan/Eastern Michigan 7:30: Was on the opposite side of Eastern Michigan last week and delivered with Ohio U. Tonight, I'm getting on the Eagles as a home dog. Eagles' QB Ben Bryant is every bit as good as WM's Eleby. Bryant actually posts better numbers at 69.7% completions and has thrown for 300+ in 3 of last 4 games. WM does have good receivers in Moore, Hall and Crooms. Eagles' defense, which has trouble stopping the run, does sport a pretty good secondary and can create turnovers. Eagles are +1 in turnover margin while the Broncos are -1. Eastern has covered 3 straight in this series including last year's 53-42 win in Kalamazoo. The last 4 matchups were decided by 7 points or fewer. Eagles 22-9 ATS off a SU loss and 19-9 ATS vs team above .500. WM, coming off a narrow victory over 23' point dog Akron last week, just 6-15-1 ATS off a SU win, 2-5 as road chalk, and 1-7-1 ATS in conference games. We'll gladly take Chris Creighton's Eagles which are a sweet 12-1 ATS as a dog of more than 4 points vs a .500 team coming off a SU win. |
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11-13-21 | Nevada +3 v. San Diego State | 21-23 | Win | 100 | 19 h 56 m | Show | |
Nevada/San Diego State 10:30pm: Trouble spot for SDS coming off a narrow win at Hawaii. Their most valuable weapon lately has been their punter - Araiza - who boomed a 79 yard punt last week. The Aztecs' offense ranks 113th nationally. The jet lagged Aztecs will host Nevada, who've covered three straight in this series. Nevada sports a strong pass game under Carson Strong. He's thrown for over 3000 yards, with a 25 TD passes and 7 INTs. He's completed nearly 71% of his passes. Sure, SDS has a stellar defense but the defense and their punter can only do so much. Nevada gets after the QB (3.7 sacks per game) and makes plays in the secondary; as a matter of fact, Nevada has had two scores defensively in each of their last two games. SDS fell to Nevada last year but just 1-9 ATS as a favorite with revenge vs a .500 or greater opponent. Nevada the call. |
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11-13-21 | Minnesota +4.5 v. Iowa | Top | 22-27 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
Minnesota/Iowa 3:30: After two straight losses, Iowa slugged by Northwestern last week. Iowa's defense great but their offense is sluggish (123rd in nation). Lurking in the shadows are the Gophers who got beat by Illinois as a 14' point favorite. I wouldn't put it past HC Fleck to be looking ahead to this game. One year ago today, Iowa blasted the Gophers 35-7. Big revenge here and we'll grab them. Minnesota is 11-0 ATS off a SU loss as a favorite. They're 6-1 ATS on the road vs conference foes. Minnesota doesn't have an explosive offense but a potent run game behind a dominant offensive line. The Gophers lost their top running backs including Potts yet still control the 21st ground game in the nation with 208 YPG. Backups Thomas and Irving doing a solid job. QB Tanner Morgan is a veteran QB that's had a rough stretch. Look for him to show up to play today. On the other hand, as of now Iowa has to go with backup QB Padilla who will make his first career start in place of injured Petras (shoulder). Padilla did a solid job against the mediocre Northwestern defense but Minnesota controls the #7 defense in the nation and has a formidable front that can pressure QBs. Hawkeyes just 0-5 ATS after scoring less than 20 points. We'll row the boat with Fleck and his Gophers. |
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11-13-21 | East Carolina +5.5 v. Memphis | 30-29 | Win | 100 | 11 h 54 m | Show | |
East Carolina/Memphis Noon: Pirates on a 6-1 ATS run including 5 straight covers. Pirates have a much better run game than their counterpart and play better defense. EC's RB Keaton Mitchell is a 1000+ rusher who can eat grass and run clock against a suspect Memphis defense. ECU defense no lockdown unit but can make plays. The opportunistic Pirates forced 12 turnovers on the year. The Tigers' secondary has had trouble. ECU's QB Ahlers not great but respectable when the run game is going behind Mitchell. Ahlers completes at 61% and threw 14 TD passes. Memphis just 4-11 ATS in conference play and 4-9 ATS as chalk. They're just 2-4 SU/ATS since upsetting Miss State back on September 18th. They're coming off a big win over SMU and we're fading them against the more consistent Pirates. East Carolina the call. |
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11-13-21 | Mississippi State +5.5 v. Auburn | 43-34 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show | |
Mississippi State/Auburn Noon: Mississippi State coming off a tough last second loss but cover at Arkansas last week. Bulldogs have covered 3 straight and 4 of their last 5. They're looking to avenge last year's 24-10 home loss. On the other hand, Auburn is coming off a sluggish performance at Texas A&M where all they could generate is a field goal. Auburn a poor 1-7 ATS after scoring less than 10 points. Now they have to face a Top 20 defense of Miss State. Bulldogs play well on the road (5-1 ATS and 4-0 ATS as a road dog). And in their losses, the Bulldogs lost 3 of 4 by 3 points or less. Auburn doesn't present a team with explosive plays which gives a fundamentally sound defense of Miss State the ability to stay in this game. Mississippi State air raid offense led by QB Will Rogers are in the top of the SEC in controlling clock. We'll grab the points with the road team. |
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11-12-21 | Wyoming +14 v. Boise State | 13-23 | Win | 100 | 20 h 49 m | Show | |
Wyoming/Boise State 9:00: Boise appears to be heating up on a 2-0 SU/ATS tear but not sold on them here. Wyoming has a veteran team that traded blow for blow last season in a season ending cover. Wyoming has covered 5 of the last 6 in this series including 3 straight in Boise. Yes, worried about the Wyoming offense which has been stuck in a funk for most of the season until the last two weeks when they finally got their run game going with RB Valladay. He ran roughshod over a pretty good Colorado State defense (25th nationally in total yards allowed). Wyoming's game rests in the hands of their defense (Top 20 nationally and very good against the pass #4). Boise has failed to cover in their last 3 at home and haven't covered three straight all season. Wyoming strong on Fridays (5-0 ATS) and we'll take the two touchdowns. |
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11-09-21 | Ohio +6 v. Eastern Michigan | 34-26 | Win | 100 | 20 h 40 m | Show | |
Ohio/Eastern Michigan 8:00: Ohio U has been a consistent winner under 17th year HC Frank Solich. Bobcats have had a rough year (2-7 SU) but have been in virtually every game this season in the MAC. Currently on a 4-1 ATS run and off a huge conference win over Miami OH. They have a solid run game behind versatile RB Tuggle (8 TDs) and QB Rourke (69/9% completions) manages the game well. He's coming off a strong game vs Miaim OH in which he threw 3 TD passes. EM has another solid year under HC Creighton at 6-3 but I don't like them in this spot. EM a money burning 1-10 ATS at home after allow 35 or more points. Last week, they won at Toledo 52-49. The Eagles do give up points. Ohio is a dangerous dog at 6-0 ATS on the road off a SU win vs an opponent off a SU/ATS win. Moreover, they're 10-0 ATS as dogs of less than 20 points vs a .666 or greater opponent. Ohio has covered 5 of the last 6 in this series. We'll grab the Bobcats. |
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11-06-21 | Marshall -1 v. Florida Atlantic | 28-13 | Win | 100 | 22 h 45 m | Show | |
Marshall/Fla Atlantic 6:00: Fla Atlantic puts its 12 game win streak on the line today vs a team that was the last to beat them in FAU Stadium back on October 18, 2019. And the Thundering Herd are 3-0 SU in their last 3 games vs the Owls. Herd a sweet 8-1 ATS on the road vs an opponent with revenge and we'll stay on them here. Marshall has a solid run game behind 1000 yard rusher Rasheen Ali in the nation's #8 ranked offense. On the other hand, FAU does have Mia Fla QB transfer Perry. However, he's been one of the most sacked QBs in the nation and Marshall is a sack producing machine defensively - 28 on the year - 8th nationally. Owls have historically not played the home dog role well at 1-7 ATS. We'll look for Marshall to deliver again. |
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11-06-21 | Mississippi State +5 v. Arkansas | Top | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 20 h 29 m | Show |
Mississippi State/Arkansas 4:00: Mississippi State starting to roll on a 3-1 SU/ATS tear after beating down Kentucky last week. In that game, QB Will Rogers completed a near flawless 92.3% of his passes vs a pretty solid Kentucky defense. Arkansas' defense pretty good too; however, Miss State spreads the field and stresses secondaries. The Bulldogs have 6 players with 26 or more receptions. On the other hand, Mississippi State has a top 5 run stop unit in the country and has the horses to effectively counter Arkansas' power run game. The Bulldogs control a Top 20 defense and create turnovers (#20 nationally). Arkansas is coming off a bye week after blowing out subdivision lightweight Arkansas-Pine Bluff - their fist win since upsetting Texas A&M in late September. Mississippi State a perfect 7-0 ATS vs an opponent off a bye and 3-1 ATS in this series at Arkansas. We'll look for the Bulldogs to avenge last year's 21-14 home loss. Mississippi State the call. |
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11-06-21 | UL-Monroe +3.5 v. Texas State | 19-27 | Loss | -109 | 21 h 8 m | Show | |
UL-Monroe/Texas State 3:00: On paper, UL-Monroe is football ugly. However, dramatic improvement from a season ago when they didn't win a game and was in the bottom tier of virtually every statistical category on both sides of the ball. In came Terry Bowden as the new HC who brought in Rich Rodriquez as his OC; consequently, they've won 4 games including two huge upsets - beating Liberty outright as a 32' point dog and Troy as a 23' point dog. They're years away from competing with the big boys but can compete with the bottom feeders of the Sun Belt. Texas State is such an opponent. They're 2-6 SU, turnover laden offensively and poor defensively. Sure, ULM is every bit as bad statistically, however, they don't turn over the ball as much and can make plays defensively. ULM has a ball hawking secondary that has 9 INTs on the year including 2 going for TDs. With Texas State a poor 1-9-1 ATS as a home favorite above 1 point, we'll grab the Warhawks in a revenge mode after last year's home loss. |
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11-06-21 | Pittsburgh -21 v. Duke | 54-29 | Win | 100 | 19 h 4 m | Show | |
Pittsburgh/Duke Noon: Duke is coming off back-to-back losses in which they were outscored 93-7. Offense has a few playmakers with RB Durant (973 rushing yards) and QB Holmberg (1860 passing yards/69% comp) yet they can't get it in the end zone (24.5 PPG - 92nd nationally). The real problem for the Blue Devils is defensively. They can't stop anybody. Devils allowing 470 yards per game and 33 PPG (bottom tier nationally). Their secondary is in shambles and that doesn't bode well vs Heisman contender Cody Pickett. He's been tearing it up consistently this season throwing for nearly 3000 yards / 26 TDs/ 3 INTs. Pitt was coming off a huge win against Clemson before getting bumped off by Mia Fla last week. Defensive minded Narduzzi puts emphasis on defensive effort and didn't like the 38 points wrung up on them. Look for Narduzzi's bunch to respond well here; after all, they're 4-0 ATS after allowing more than 280 yards passing yards and a perfect 7-0 ATS after allowing more than 35 points. Duke won't be able to trade points with the #5 offense in the nation. We'll look for Pitt to go to 6-0 ATS in this series. |
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11-02-21 | Ball State v. Akron +20.5 | 31-25 | Win | 100 | 19 h 35 m | Show | |
Ball State/Akron 7:00: Akron clearly not a contender in the MAC yet for they're in a rebuilding stage in Tom Arth's third year as head coach. Akron freshman played 32% of the snaps last season (2nd in the nation). With a bit more maturity, Zips have covered 2 of their last 3 games. And they've had to take on the likes of Auburn and Ohio State in September. Ball State is surely not that caliber and Akron should be competitive. Ball State's offense is 112th in the nation, right there with Akron's. Akron's defense not good but has 8 takeaways on the year with a few good playmakers. Offensively, Akron does have a few playmakers as well, including Konata Mumpfield (caught TD pass vs OSU) who has nearly 500 yards in reception yards and 6 TDs. And Akron may have red shirt senior Kato Nelson back at QB tonight. If not, Irons (66% completions) and Zach Gibson (6 TD/0 INTs) can step in . Akron got soundly beaten at home vs Buffalo last week. Zips 4-0 ATS in its last 4 off a double digit loss at home. |
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10-30-21 | Georgia -14 v. Florida | 34-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 10 m | Show | |
Georgia/Florida 3:30: Georgia looking to avenge last year's defeat. We'll lay the points here; after all, Georgia has the #1 defense in college football allowing a measly 6.6 PPG. With Florida's uncertainty at QB Richardson and inconsistent starter Emory Jones, could be trouble. On the other hand, Florida's defense was gashed to the tune of 321 yards on 45 attempts in their loss to LSU on the 16th. The Gators' repeatedly went over blocks on LSU's counters to give up multiple explosive plays. Georgia has a sound run game and QB Bennett has filled in well for JT Daniels. Gators 0-5 ATS as a dog vs opponent with revenge. Georgia rolls. |
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10-30-21 | Purdue +7.5 v. Nebraska | 28-23 | Win | 100 | 13 h 1 m | Show | |
Purdue/Nebraska 3:30: Purdue covered the last 3 at Nebraska and we'll grab the points again here. Purdue lost to the Cornhuskers at home last year. 'Huskers a mere 1-9 ATS as home favorites of less than 14 points vs opponent with revenge. Take the points. |
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10-30-21 | Michigan v. Michigan State +4 | 33-37 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
Michigan/Michigan State Noon: Michigan's had trouble with the Spartans. They're 2-9 ATS last 11 in this series. And away from the Big House, the Wolves are a money burning 1-6 ATS at East Lansing. Not a fan of laying points with that scenario. Michigan State has a bruising run game with Kenneth Walker III (997 Yards). And QB Payton Thorne (15 TD/4 INT/61% COMP) manages the game well. And the Spartans are no softie vs power run teams. We'll look for the Spartans to deliver here. |
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10-30-21 | Texas v. Baylor -2.5 | Top | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
Texas/Baylor Noon: Both teams well rested coming off byes; however, Bears in better shape sitting at 6-1 while Texas has dropped their last two conference games and sitting at 4-3. Texas has been able to put points on the board with its explosive offense; however, they're unable to finish games because of a leaky defense. They've given up nearly 430 YPG and nearly 30 PPG. Baylor, on the other hand, continues its defensive success giving up nearly 100 YPG less than the Longhorns. Baylor's new offensive coordinator - Grimes - bestowed an offense to the Bears this season; something they lacked considerably last year under Fedora. The Bears' RB Abram Smith is coming off a 188 yard rushing game vs BYU. And they're in good hands with QB Bohanon (12 TD passes/1 INT with a 66% completion percentage. Baylor looking to avenge last year's 27-16 loss should get it done. Longhorns 3-7-1 ATS last 11 meetings. Baylor the call. |
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10-23-21 | West Virginia +4.5 v. TCU | 29-17 | Win | 100 | 16 h 54 m | Show | |
10-23-21 | Maryland v. Minnesota -4 | 16-34 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show | |
Maryland/Minnesota 3:30: Maryland got the best of Minnesota last year at home in a 45-44 OT win. Look for Minnesota to return the favor on their home field. Since Minnesota's upset loss in Week 4 to lightweight Bowling Green, they've rattled off 2 impressive conference wins over Purdue and Nebraska. Meanwhile, QB Tagovailoa and Maryland flamed out getting blown out by Iowa and Ohio State. They did have a bye week but don't think it will help. Terrapins 1-10 ATS as dogs with rest. "Row the boat" with Minnesota. |
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10-23-21 | Wisconsin v. Purdue +3.5 | 30-13 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 21 m | Show | |
Wisconsin/Purdue 3:00: Jeff Brohm doing a solid job building Purdue. Defense is playing well and despite the revolving QBs, Purdue has held onto the ball well (just 2 turnovers) and possess a solid pass game. On the other hand, Wisconsin QB Mertz struggling (2 TD/7 INT) and it's effecting the offense production. Sure, Wisconsin has virtually owned this series but Purdue is a sweet 9-0 ATS with revenge off double-digit AGTS win vs less than .600 opponent. We backed Purdue last week as my Top Play and hit big over Iowa; today, we'll grab the points again. |
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10-22-21 | Memphis v. Central Florida +2.5 | 7-24 | Win | 100 | 19 h 32 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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10-16-21 | Air Force +3.5 v. Boise State | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 17 h 11 m | Show | |
Air Force/Boise State 9:00: Boise State coming off a huge win over BYU. Should see trouble here. Boise State defense has had difficulty stopping the run - allowing 180 YPG (98th nationally). That bodes trouble against the #1 run team in the nation. AF triple option working its magic this year. On the other hand, AF puts a Top 10 defense on the field to go up against an offense that doesn't have the same bite it did in recent years under former Boise State head coaches Harsin and Peterson. Under Avalos, the Boise run game 121st in the nation. Air Force has a solid run-stop-unit and limits explosive plays. We'll roll with AF which eats clock and keeps the chains moving. |
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10-16-21 | UCLA +1.5 v. Washington | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 16 h 3 m | Show | |
UCLA/Washington 8:30: We'll look for Chip Kelly's boys to work their strong run game vs the weak spots of the Washington defense. Washington defense allows nearly 180 YPG. UCLA run game is cooking behind RB Charbonnet and Brown. UCLA has the 18th ranked run game at 225 YPG. Dorian Thompson-Robinson doing a solid job in the Kelly system - 11 TD passes/2 INT. Washington, a major underachiever thus far, should continue to struggle. UCLA the call. |
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10-16-21 | Stanford v. Washington State | 31-34 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 53 m | Show | |
Stanford/Washington State 7:30: Stanford overdue to deliver in this series. QB Tanner McKee doing a solid job at the controls (12 TD/3 INT). We'll look for Shaw's bunch to battle back after getting worked by Arizona State last week. Washington State off two big wins but should struggle here. Rolovich just 5-25 SU in games in which his team scores fewer than 28 points. We'll look for the Stanford defense to step up their game here. |
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10-16-21 | Purdue +11.5 v. Iowa | Top | 24-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
Purdue/Iowa 3:30: Iowa has defeated three ranked opponents and feel really good about themselves. However, lurking in the shadows is a formidable Purdue team that's had their number. Purdue HC Jeff Brohm 3-1 SU/ATS vs Iowa. Purdue has a Top 20 defense that can limit the pedestrian Iowa offensive attack. Of course, Iowa controls an opportunistic defense #1 in the country creating turnovers (16) with a ball hawking secondary. However, Purdue QB Jack Plummer has yet to throw an interception in an offense that's turned the ball over just 1 time this season. Purdue is coming off a bye with extra prep and should stay in this game. Purdue a sweet 14-0 ATS as a road dog of more than 11 points. We'll grab the points. |
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10-09-21 | Florida State +17.5 v. North Carolina | 35-25 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show | |
10-09-21 | SMU -13 v. Navy | 31-24 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 45 m | Show | |
10-09-21 | Oklahoma v. Texas +3.5 | 55-48 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 10 m | Show | |
Oklahoma/Texas Noon: Oklahoma has won (SU) 3 straight in this series, although Texas has covered 7 of the last 9. I'm going to take the field goal and a hook with a progressively improving team. The Longhorns, which lost its second game of the season to Arkansas, battled back in weeks 3, 4 and 5 with solid wins and covers against Rice, Texas Tech and TCU. Casey Thompson is managing the offense well and the defense is making stops when needed. On the other hand, Oklahoma sports a perfect 5-0 SU mark but controls a money burning 1-4 ATS mark. Spencer Rattler's stock is dropping sharply and it won't get easier today. And the Oklahoma defense clearly not impenetrable (83rd in nation) considering they've face mediocre offenses. Texas capable of trading points in this matchup and we'll look for them to hang tight and deliver. |
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10-09-21 | Arkansas v. Ole Miss -4.5 | 51-52 | Loss | -111 | 8 h 29 m | Show | |
10-08-21 | Stanford +13.5 v. Arizona State | 10-28 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 53 m | Show | |
10-07-21 | Houston v. Tulane +7 | 40-22 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 40 m | Show | |
10-02-21 | South Florida v. SMU -21 | 17-41 | Win | 100 | 13 h 32 m | Show | |
USF/SMU 4:00: Sonny Dykes has a history of thrashing sub .500 conference foes as evidenced by his 8-0 SU/7-1 ATS mark in that role. Dykes' offense should run roughshod all over the Bulls' defense which allows a generous 505 YPG (128th nationally). Look for the Mustangs to ride their Bentley IV (405 rushing yards) while opening up play action for gunslinger QB Mordecai. SMU just came off working a Gary Patterson coached TCU defense. The Mustangs should light up the scoreboard vs a USF defense not nearly at the same level. And USF doesn't quite have the offensive firepower to stay in this one. Lay the wood. |
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10-02-21 | Ole Miss +15 v. Alabama | Top | 21-42 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
Ole Miss/Alabama 3:30: Last season, Ole Miss gave Alabama trouble despite having the worst defense in the nation. This season, Ole Miss defense much improved yet still possess that dangerous offense. As a matter of fact, Ole Miss is producing 635 YPG (#1 nationally) and QB Matt Corral has emerged as a Heisman favorite and he has yet to throw an INT. Alabama showed their vulnerability against Florida and won't have an easy time here. Ole Miss off a blowout home win over a good mid major in Tulane. The Rebels are 8-0 ATS as a road dog off a SU/ATS home win. We'll take the points with Kiffin's boys. |
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10-02-21 | Ohio State v. Rutgers +15.5 | 52-13 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 42 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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10-01-21 | Iowa -3 v. Maryland | 51-14 | Win | 100 | 20 h 1 m | Show | |
Iowa/Maryland 8:00: Maryland has an explosive offense led by the Big Ten's leading passer: Taulia Tagovailoa; however, Iowa's defense is the real deal led by LB Jack Campbell. Iowa sports the #3 scoring defense in the nation. Surely this will be Taulia's first big test against one of the better stop units in the nation. Offensively, Iowa not flashy but they run a conservative ground control attack with Spencer Petras at the helm. They limit mistakes and play the field position game with solid special teams. We'll grab the not so flashy team with the Hawkeyes. |
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09-30-21 | Virginia +6 v. Miami-FL | 30-28 | Win | 100 | 18 h 0 m | Show | |
Virginia/Mia Fla 7:30: In recent years the Hurricanes are overhyped and they consistently disappoint; as a matter of fact, since 2018, they've lost 12 games SU as favorites including this season on September 18th at home vs Michigan State as 7 point chalk. Tonight, they have their work cut out for them again; after all, they may be without their QB D'Eriq King (shoulder). Sure, backup Van Dyke looked great but against lightweight Central Connecticut. 'Canes 0-5 ATS off SU win of 20+ points and 1-6 ATS at home. Virginia's QB Brennan Armstrong has thrown for 400+ in 3 straight games, 67% completions w/ 13 TDs and 3 INTs. Cav's coming off a disappointing loss vs a good WF team. They do, however, have resilience under Mendenhall going 4-0 ATS after scoring less than 20 points. And their 6-1 ATS after allowing 200+ rush yards. We'll grab the points here. |
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09-25-21 | Rutgers +20.5 v. Michigan | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 12 h 13 m | Show | |
Rutgers/Michigan 3:30: Rutgers no joke this season. Experienced team with hard nosed defense with a well balanced offense. Scarlet Knights' HC Schiano was also able to establish a Top 40 recruiting class. Michigan most likely has to take an early peak at big revenge game vs Wisconsin next week. Rutgers 5-0 ATS as a road dog is the call. |
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09-25-21 | Clemson -10 v. NC State | 21-27 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 1 m | Show | |
Clemson/NC State 3:30: Realize NC State has showed some good offensive production and respectable defense; however, Clemson has won eight straight in this series and they're overdue to get untracked offensively. Uiaglaelei has struggled but should break out today. NC State defense looks good on paper but now takes on significant upgrade. And consider that Clemson defense has not allowed an offensive TD this season. We'll lay the points. |
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09-25-21 | LSU v. Mississippi State +2.5 | 28-25 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 25 m | Show | |
LSU/Mississippi State Noon: Not buying into LSU as of yet. Run game not that effective (120th nationally) considering they've gone against FCS lightweight McNeese State and Central Michigan. Mississippi State upset the Tigers on opening day last year. Leach is coming off a loss with his Bulldogs (31-29 to Memphis). Mississippi State has a solid run stop unit and offensively can air it out with QB Will Rogers. Miss State 25-8 ATS at home vs a team with a winning road record. And they've covered 4 of last 5 as a dog. Miss State the call. |
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09-25-21 | Missouri -1 v. Boston College | Top | 34-41 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
Missouri/Boston College Noon: Eagles can thank their schedule maker for 3-0 start. First three of their opponents went a combined 1-12 last season. Today, a significant upgrade. BC won't have starting QB Jurkovec (wrist surgery) and will go with Grosel - who actually looked good as a fill in. BC will rely on ground game which is cooking and, at the same time, attack the week spot of the Missouri defense. But Missouri has the offensive arsenal to more than enough trade points. Missouri the call. |
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09-24-21 | Wake Forest v. Virginia -3.5 | 37-17 | Loss | -101 | 18 h 20 m | Show | |
Wake Forest/Virginia 7:00: Not completely sold on WF after blowout wins over lightweights Old Dominion, Norfolk and 35-14 over a rebuilding FSU program. Virginia is coming off a 59-39 blowout loss to Mack Brown's UNC team. Don't expect Virginia to lay down defensively here. Mendenhall will have them more prepared. And offensively, QB Armstrong has already aired it out for 1300 yards! WF defense has consistently been yielding in the Clawson era. And hard to fade the Cavaliers tremendous 12-0 ATS mark with revenge after allowing 35+ points vs an opponent off a double digit SU win! |
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09-18-21 | Alabama -14.5 v. Florida | 31-29 | Loss | -101 | 5 h 33 m | Show | |
Alabama/Florida 3:30: At first glance, Florida seems like a solid play getting two TDs on the their home field in a revenge battle. And Mullen's ground game is #1 in the nation; however, that ground was eaten up against two of the worst run stop units in the nation - Fla Atlantic and USF. Keep in mind that Florida lost some key stars from last year's class in QB Trask, TE Pitts, WR Toney, Trevon Grimes - 3 of 4 high draft choices in NFL. Alabama, on the other hand, goes about business as usual - #1 recruiting class in nation with Heisman candidate - Bryce Young off to a strong start (71% completions/7 TD passes/0 INTs). And Alabama's run stop unit in the upper echelon of the nation. With Fla having a duel QB combination with no clearly established starter, look for Alabama defense to turn it up a notch or two; after all, the 'Tide gets up for these hyped games. Alabama the call. |
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09-18-21 | Nebraska +23 v. Oklahoma | 16-23 | Win | 100 | 2 h 38 m | Show | |
Nebraska/Oklahoma Noon: Nebraska stumbled Week 1 vs Illinois but did bounce back strong with two covers against inferior opponents. Oklahoma almost got shocked by strong mid-major -Tulane before blasting lightweight Western Carolina. Not a good spot for Oklahoma but a good one for Nebraska. Sooners just 1-7 ATS as double digit favorites after scoring more than 35 points and 1-5 ATS before they play West Virginia. Moreover, 0-5 ATS at home vs an opponent off back-to-back ATS wins. Sure, Rattler and company will put up points in the offensive machine Lincoln Riley created; however, Nebraska's veteran QB Martinez got into focus with 71% completions last two games after 50% Week 1. And remember, Scott Frost has stocked some quality athletes since arriving in Nebraska while establishing the #20 recruiting class this season. That's closing the gap significantly on Riley and Oklahoma. We'll look for Nebraska to hang around. |
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09-18-21 | Virginia Tech v. West Virginia -1.5 | 21-27 | Win | 100 | 1 h 52 m | Show | |
09-11-21 | San Diego State +2 v. Arizona | 38-14 | Win | 100 | 19 h 38 m | Show | |
09-11-21 | Washington v. Michigan -6.5 | Top | 10-31 | Win | 100 | 17 h 41 m | Show |
Washington/Michigan 8:00: Washington, projected #20 team a few weeks ago, sustained a horrible loss to D1 Subdivision Montana last week. Sure, they were missing their top three receivers; however, prognosticators had Washington's offensive line ranking in the Top 5 in the country. The o-line surely didn't show it by getting pushed around by the Grizzlies. They averaged a meager 3.8 YPC on the ground, while QB Morris was 27 or 46 for just 226 yards. Meanwhile, Michigan ripped Western Michigan a new one the Big House and welcome the Huskies tonight. Sure, the Wolverines lost their star Bell (knee) but QB McNamara does have other options. RB Corum is running well behind a revamped Michigan offensive line. That surely helps open up the pass game. With Washington's receiving corps (lost Polk last week too) week to week and having to travel near cross country to the Big House, tough environment and task for Washington. We'll lay the TD. |
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09-11-21 | NC State -1 v. Mississippi State | 10-24 | Loss | -107 | 24 h 19 m | Show | |
NC State/Miss State 7:00: Leach managed to hold on for victory last week vs Louisiana Tech. They rallied in the 4th quarter to overcome 20 point deficit and holding on in final seconds on a missed Tech field goal. The competition gets tougher for Leach tonight. In to Starkville come NC State. The Wolfpack are fresh off a blowout over USF. Defensively, they're equipped with lots of veteran experience (10 returning starters) and it showed in Week 1. NC State HC Doeren has experience facing Leach. Doeren was on the defensive staff at Kansas when Leach was running Texas Tech. Also, Doeren has assistants who coach with Leach. NC State has its share of explosive offensive personnel too, including a run game which amassed nearly 300 yards last week. We'll go with the strong run game and defense here. NC State the call. |
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09-11-21 | Rutgers -1.5 v. Syracuse | 17-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show | |
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