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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-11-21 | Canadiens +102 v. Flames | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 6 m | Show | |
19 Montreal at Calgary Second of a back to back situation for the Canadiens who played last night in Vancouver. In 5x5 G+-/60 we find Montreal ranked 1st and Calgary 17th. In xG/60 The Canadiens are +0.60 and the Flames +0.12. A substantial edge for the visitor. On the Power Play in G+-/60 Montreal ranks 10th and Calgary 16th. Looking at xG/60 we find the Canadiens +5.62 and the Flames +4.87. Looking at the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 Montreal ranks 9th and Calgary 15th. In the advanced stats of xG/60 we see the Canadiens -6.12 and the Flames -5.43. As Calgary has the expected advantage. With this game currently in the coin flip range we much prefer the Canadiens, even on the end of a back to back situation. Just haven’t seen much improvement for Calgary after the coaching change. PLAY MONTREAL |
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03-11-21 | Jets v. Maple Leafs -174 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 25 h 13 m | Show | |
6 Winnipeg at Toronto In 5x5 action we find the G+-/60 rankings of Toronto 4th and Winnipeg 16th. Looking at the advanced stat of xG/60 we see the Leafs at +0.40 and the Jets at -0.35. So basically 3/4 of a goal advantage for the host in 5x5 play. Looking at the Power Play we see Toronto ranking 2nd in G+-/60, and Winnipeg 12th. In xG/60 the Leafs are +9.00, and the Jets +5.74. A huge advantage for the Maple Leafs. On the Penalty Kill neither team is especially good. Toronto ranking 24th in G+-/60 and Winnipeg 18th. In xG/60 Winnipeg is -6.20, and Toronto -4.67. So there is a bit of positive regression coming for Toronto. Let’s lay it with the Maple Leafs. PLAY TORONTO |
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03-10-21 | Canadiens -143 v. Canucks | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 29 m | Show | |
77 Montreal at Vancouver Looking at 5x5 G+-/60 we find Montreal the top ranked team in the league and Vancouver ranked 25th. In xG/60 the Canadiens dominate at +0.60, while the Canucks come in at -0.37. So basically based on 5x5 action Montreal is a full goal better than Vancouver. On the Power Play the rankings show Montreal 10th and the Canucks 24th in G+-/60. In xG/60 the Canadiens are +5.62 and the Canucks +5.41. Much closer than the actual outputs. On the Penalty Kill it’s much closer in the ranking of G+-/60 with the Canadiens 9th and the Canucks 14th. In xG/60 Montreal is -6.12 and Vancouver -7.04. The 5x5 advantage for the Canadiens cannot be ignored. Having the edge in all three categories put us clearly on the road team here. PLAY MONTREAL |
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03-10-21 | Kings -125 v. Ducks | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 1 m | Show | |
75 Los Angeles at Anaheim In 5x5 G+-/60 LA ranks 21st and Anaheim 23rd. In xG/60 we find the Kings at -0.39 and the Ducks -0.27. On the Power Play in where there is a clear advantage for LA, ranking 5th and the Ducks coming in 30th in G+-/60. In xG/60 the Kings are +6.93 and the Ducks +5.97. So we can expect to see some regression in those expected numbers. On the Penalty Kill Los Angeles ranks 13th and Anaheim 17th in G+-/60. Looking at the advanced numbers we see xG/60 the Kings -6.20 and the Ducks -5.86. A slight edge to the host. While the numbers say this should be an even matchup, we can’t ignore the Kings improvement since the start of the season. Give us the visitor to grab the victory here. PLAY LOS ANGELES |
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03-10-21 | Coyotes v. Avalanche -191 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show | |
74 Arizona at Colorado In G+-/60 5x5 play Arizona ranks 25th and Colorado 15th. In 5x5 xG/60 we find the Coyotes -0.18 and the Avalanche +0.45. On the Power Play in G+-/60 we see Arizona 21st and Colorado 9th. In xG/60 the Coyotes are +4.17 and the Avalanche +7.27. A large advantage for the host. On the Penalty Kill we find in G+-/60 Arizona is -9.05, and the Avalanche -5.46. Another huge edge for the host. Clearly Colorado is the better team and the special teams have a dominant advantage. PLAY COLORADO |
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03-09-21 | Panthers -127 v. Blue Jackets | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 20 h 9 m | Show | |
61 Florida at Columbus In 5x5 G+-/60 we find Florida ranked 7th and Columbus 23rd. In xG/60 the Panthers are +0.35 and the Blue Jackets -0.30. A substantial edge for the visitor. On the Power Play in G+-/60 the Panthers rank 7th and the Blue Jackets come in 26th. Looking at the advanced stats we find Florida +7.50, Columbus +3.44. A huge advantage for the visitor. On the Power Play Florida ranks 21st in G+-/60, while Columbus ranks 18th. In xG/60 the Panthers are -6.22, and the Blue Jackets -5.47. So an edge here for the host. Overall Florida is the better team and the price is more than fair, give us the Panthers in this one. PLAY FLORIDA |
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03-08-21 | Blues v. Sharks +141 | 2-3 | Win | 141 | 24 h 57 m | Show | |
80 St Louis at San Jose In 5x5 G+-/60 the Blues rank 12th and the Sharks 29th. Looking at xG/60 we find St Louis -0.02 and San Jose -0.12. Much closer than the actual results would suggest. On the Power Play in G+-/60 the Blues rank 11th while the Sharks are 24th. In xG/60 St Louis is +6.13, while San Jose is +5.95. Again much closer than the actual goal difference suggests. In Penalty Kill situations in G+-/60 St Louis ranks 25th and San Jose is 20th. In xG/60 we find the Blues -7.01 and the Sharks -5.50. Once again favoring the home underdog. The Blues have been a popular team to play on lately, but the advanced numbers disagree with that. Give us the Sharks at home off a shutout loss to the Golden Knights. PLAY SAN JOSE |
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03-08-21 | Golden Knights v. Wild +100 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 23 h 3 m | Show |
42 Vegas at Minnesota The Knights have the longest winning streak in the league, with the Wild contributing to that streak. But if you watched that series the games were much closer than the final scores would indicate. In G+-/60 in 5x5 play we find both teams having great success. The Knights rank 5th and the Wild 4th. In xG/60 in 5x5 play the Knights are +0.12 and the Wild +0.52. On the Power Play Vegas has a solid advantage in ranking at 19th to dead last 31st for the Wild. In xG/60 Vegas is +6.66 and Minnesota +6.10. Closer than the actual goals would suggest. On the Penalty Kill we find both teams having success. Vegas ranks 3rd and the Wild are 7th. In xG/60 the Knights are -5.23 and the Wild -4.42. So we can expect a better performance for the Wild. Give us the Wild here to get back into the win column, as Vegas is a bit fat and happy to trust them in the road favorite role. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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03-07-21 | Capitals -106 v. Flyers | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 38 m | Show | |
33 Washington at Philadelphia Now that the Flyers are coming off a major rivalry series with the Penguins. We can continue to fade one of the most overrated teams in the league. In 5x5 G+-/60 the Capitals rank 10th and the Flyers 9th. In xG/60 we find Washington at +0.10 and Philadelphia -0.07. On the Power Play both teams are mediocre. Washington ranking 14th and Philadelphia 17th. The Capitals are +6.03 in xG/60 and the Flyers are +5.93. On the Penalty Kill Washington has a huge lead in the rankings at 12th to 28th. In xG/60 we find the Capitals -5.42 and the Flyers -7.14. It’s clear Washington is the better team when looking at the stats. PLAY WASHINGTON |
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03-07-21 | Panthers +130 v. Hurricanes | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 51 m | Show | |
29 Florida at Carolina Big fans of both these teams but the line is just too large not to look at the visitor. In 5x5 G+-/60 Florida ranks 6th to 8th for the Hurricanes. In xG/60 we find the Panthers +0.41 and the Hurricanes +0.28. These are two of the best when looking at the Power Play. Florida ranks 5th and Carolina 1st in G+-/60. In xG/60 the Panthers are +7.89 and the Hurricanes +7.07. So once again an edge for the visitor. On the Penalty Kill Florida ranks 22nd with the Hurricanes 10th tin G+-/60. In looking deeper we have Florida -6.51 and Carolina -4.18 in xG/60, so the clear edge is with Carolina. These two are virtually equal in our ratings, with home ice being next to nothing right now we will take the plus price with Florida. PLAY FLORIDA |
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03-07-21 | Lightning -195 v. Blackhawks | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 4 h 38 m | Show | |
27 Tampa Bay at Chicago In 5x5 G+-/60 Tampa ranks 2nd and Chicago 21st. Looking at the advanced stats we see the Lightning at +0.21 and the Blackhawks at -0.22. On the Power Play Tampa ranks 7th and Chicago 4th in G+-/60. in xG/60 we find the Lightning +6.37 and Chicago +6.02. So puck luck has been in the favor of the Blackhawks thus far. On the Penalty Kill Toronto has a huge ranking edge in G+-/60 of 2nd to 21st. Looking at xG/60 we see Tampa with -4.42 and Chicago -6.14. A sizable difference. With Chicago going all out for the victory Friday, we look for the Lightning to grab this one. PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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03-06-21 | Golden Knights v. Sharks +181 | 4-0 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 38 m | Show | |
76 Vegas at San Jose Really nice spot here for the Sharks who could have given up after falling behind 2-0 in the early minutes of the game yesterday. Vegas is sure to relax after starting the third string goalie last night, knowing Fleury will be in net this evening. We won’t bother you with the stats as we well know Vegas is superior. But the spot, the rivalry intensity and the price make too hard not to back the underdog Sharks. PLAY SAN JOSE |
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03-06-21 | Flames +116 v. Oilers | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 8 m | Show | |
73 Calgary at Edmonton The Flames made a surprising move yesterday making a coaching change. We look to take advantage of that new found energy on Saturday. In 5x5 action Calgary ranks 14th in G+-/60, while Edmonton ranks 23rd. In looking at the advanced stats we see the Flames at +0.05 in xG/60, and the Oilers at -0.06. So much closer than the actual goals achieved. On the Power Play Calgary ranks 16th in +-G/60, Edmonton 8th. In xG+-/60 The Flames are +4.90 and the Oilers +7.59. A sizable advantage for the host. On the Penalty Kill Calgary ranks 15th in G+-/60 while the Iolers are at spot 22. Looking a bit deeper we see the Flames with a -5.25 xG/60, and the Oilers -7.84. That’s a big advantage for the visitor. The numbers come out pretty even in this one, but the rejuvenation of the Flames because of the management move should really make a difference. PLAY CALGARY |
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03-06-21 | Blues v. Kings +126 | 3-4 | Win | 126 | 11 h 9 m | Show | |
20 St Louis at Los Angeles The Blues seem to be on a nice run as of late, but much of that is because of puck luck. The value here is on the Kings at home. In 5x5 G+-/60 the Blues rank 13th, the Kings 19th. In xG/60 St Louis is -0.03, the Kings -0.45. On the Power Play we find St Louis ranking 14th in G+-/60, and LA 7th. Looking at advanced stats the Blues are +6.08 and the Kings +7.32. Nice advantage for the host. In Penalty Killing St Louis ranks 25th in G+-/60 and LA 11th. In xG/60 we find St Louis at -7.09, Los Angeles -6.07. Once again a nice advantage for the Kings. The advanced stats show LA to be just as good as St Louis, and we are getting an inflated price based on nothing but puck luck. PLAY LOS ANGELES |
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03-06-21 | Blue Jackets v. Stars -134 | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 9 m | Show | |
18 Columbus at Dallas We lost on the Stars in this matchup on Thursday, but we are not budging on our beliefs. Here is a repeat of our analysis for that game. In G+-/60 in 5x5 Columbus ranks 24th and Dallas is 15th. In xG/60 the Blue Jackets are -0.35, and the Stars +0.14. On the Power Play we find Columbus ranking 21st and Dallas 13th. In xG/60 the Blue Jackets are +3.72 and the Stars are +5.96. So the expected goal differential is even wider for the host. On the Penalty Kill we see both teams struggle. With Columbus coming in at 20th and Dallas at 22nd in G+-/60. Looking at xG/60 we find Columbus -5.47 and the Stars at -7.33, finally an advantage for Columbus. Still even with the Blue Jackets performing better on the penalty kill, the advantage is with the Stars. The price is fair with Dallas. PLAY DALLAS |
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03-06-21 | Maple Leafs -195 v. Canucks | 2-4 | Loss | -195 | 9 h 10 m | Show | |
11 Toronto at Vancouver We called for the upset on Thursday as it was a terrible spot for the Maple Leafs. Now we switch sides and back Toronto off a loss. In 5x5 G+-/60 Toronto has a large edge ranking 4th to Vancouver’s 26th. In xG/60 we find the Leafs +0.29 and the Canucks -0.34. Much closer than the actual numbers would suggest. Maybe a little regression is in store for each of these clubs. On the Power Play Toronto comes in ranked 2nd and the Canucks 26th. In xG/60 the Leafs are +8.57 and Vancouver 5.51. A huge advantage for Toronto. Looking at the Penalty Kill we see Toronto 17th and Vancouver 14th. In xG/60 the Leafs are -4.67, and the Canucks -7.26. So the host isn’t nearly as good as the actual numbers show. PLAY TORONTO |
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03-06-21 | Rangers v. Devils +106 | 6-3 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 21 m | Show | |
4 NY Rangers at New Jersey This is an afternoon game on Saturday starting at 1PM Eastern. In 5x5 action the G+-/60 ranking show the Rangers 15th and the Devils 22nd. In looking at the advanced stats we see NY +0.04 and NJ -0.03. Virtually equal, so the regression favors the host. On the Power Play we see the Rangers ranking 21st in G+-/60 and the Devils at 28th. Looking closer via xG/60 we have NY +6.46 and NJ 3.59. A significant advantage for the Rangers. On the Penalty Kill the Rangers rank 6th in G+-/60 and the Devils rank dead last. In xG/60 New York is -5.74, and the Devils -7.38. Another nice advantage for the visitor. The Rangers just blew this team away on Thursday, but the game played much closer than the final score. Keep in mind that New Jersey won the first two meetings of this season. New York went all out on Thursday playing with double revenge. It’s time for the Devils to bounce back here. PLAY NEW JERSEY |
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03-05-21 | Ducks v. Avalanche -237 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 4 m | Show | |
70 Anaheim at Colorado As we said yesterday with Carolina. We have no problem laying big numbers if the value is there. And tonight the value is on the high priced Avalanche. Looking at G+-/60 in 5x5 play Colorado ranks 11th and the Ducks 26th. In xG/60 in 5x5 play Colorado is +0.40 and Anaheim -0.21. On the Power Play the Avalanche rank 9th in G+-/60 and Anaheim ranks dead last. Looking at xG/60 Colorado is +7.48 and the Ducks 6.08. On the Penalty Kill in G+-/60 the Avalanche are -5.68 and Anaheim is -6.15. Colorado has the abundance of talent and the Ducks look like the weakest team in this division, especially offensively. Lay it with the Avalanche. PLAY COLORADO |
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03-05-21 | Lightning v. Blackhawks +168 | 3-4 | Win | 168 | 9 h 4 m | Show | |
64 Tampa Bay at Chicago Lost this game in terrible fashion last night. Even more reason to back the Blackhawks here. In order to save time I just copied the analysis from yesterday. If this game would have been played the first week of the season, we would likely be looking at Tampa domination. But that’s not the case as Chicago looks much better than the preseason expectations. In 5x5 G+-/60 Tampa ranks 1st and Chicago 21st. In xG/60 the Lightning are only +0.14, and the Blackhawks are -0.18. That’s much closer than the actual goals tell us. Which means Tampa Bay has been lucky thus far. On the Power Play both teams excel. Tampa ranks 5th and Chicago ranks 3rd in G+-/60. In xG/60 the Lightning are +6.63 and the Blackhawks +6.46. Very evenly matched. On the Penalty Kill Tampa has a huge advantage, ranking 2nd to Chicago’s 26th in G+-/60. In xG/60 the Lightning are -4.67 and the Blackhawks 6.37. So the advantage for the Lightning is with a man advantage. But is that enough to substantiate this type of price? Considering Chicago is playing much better than earlier in the season we say no way Jose. Give us the nice home dog price on the Hawks. PLAY CHICAGO |
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03-04-21 | Blue Jackets v. Stars -145 | 3-2 | Loss | -145 | 25 h 6 m | Show | |
34 Columbus at Dallas In G+-/60 in 5x5 Columbus ranks 24th and Dallas is 15th. In xG/60 the Blue Jackets are -0.35, and the Stars +0.14. On the Power Play we find Columbus ranking 21st and Dallas 13th. In G/60 the Blue Jackets are +3.72 and the Stars are +5.96. So the expected goal differential is even wider for the host. On the Penalty Kill we see both teams struggle. With Columbus coming in at 20th and Dallas at 22nd in G+-/60. Looking at xG/60 we find Columbus -5.47 and the Stars at -7.33, finally an advantage for Columbus. Still even with the Blue Jackets performing better on the penalty kill, the advantage is with the Stars. The price is fair with Dallas. PLAY DALLAS |
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03-04-21 | Lightning v. Blackhawks +193 | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 39 m | Show | |
32 Tampa Bay at Chicago If this game would have been played the first week of the season, we would likely be looking at Tampa domination. But that’s not the case as Chicago looks much better than the preseason expectations. In 5x5 G+-/60 Tampa ranks 1st and Chicago 21st. In xG/60 the Lightning are only +0.14, and the Blackhawks are -0.18. That’s much closer than the actual goals tell us. Which means Tampa Bay has been lucky thus far. On the Power Play both teams excel. Tampa ranks 5th and Chicago ranks 3rd in G+-/60. In xG/60 the Lightning are +6.63 and the Blackhawks +6.46. Very evenly matched. On the Penalty Kill Tampa has a huge advantage, ranking 2nd to Chicago’s 26th in G+-/60. In xG/60 the Lightning are -4.67 and the Blackhawks 6.37. So the advantage for the Lightning is with a man advantage. But is that enough to substantiate this type of price? Considering Chicago is playing much better than earlier in the season we say no way Jose. Give us the nice home dog price on the Hawks. PLAY CHICAGO |
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03-04-21 | Red Wings v. Hurricanes -285 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 24 h 42 m | Show | |
24 Detroit at Carolina Don’t normally lay this type of price, but if there is value there is value. And in a card of five games the underdogs help to balance out this card. In 5x5 G+-/60 Detroit ranks 29th and Carolina 8th. In xG/60 the Hurricanes are +0.29 and the Red Wings -0.29. On the Power Play Detroit ranks 30th and Carolina 1st in G+-/60. In xG/60 the Red Wings are +4.67 and the Hurricanes +6.93. That’s about as big of an advantage you will ever see. On the Penalty Kill Detroit ranks 30th and Carolina 10th in G+-/60. In xG/60 the Red Wings are -7.05, and the Hurricanes -3.80. Another huge advantage for the host. So the only real chance Detroit has in this game is to stay out of the penalty box. If Detroit is at a player disadvantage the Hurricanes can load up and blow them out. PLAY CAROLINA |
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03-04-21 | Sabres +165 v. Islanders | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 31 m | Show | |
47 Buffalo at NY Islanders In 5x5 G+-/60 the Sabres rank dead last in the league, the Islanders 9th. In xG/60 Buffalo is -0.30 and the Islanders +0.37. So the visitor has been extremely unlucky. On the Power Play Buffalo ranks 4th and NY 8th in G+-/60. In xG/60 the Sabres are +6.53 and the Islanders +6.30. So these two are pretty equal with a man advantage. On the Penalty Kill we find NY ranking 5th and the Sabres 12th in G+-/60. The advanced stats show Buffalo -6.56 and the Islanders at -5.29. While New York has the better team, we like the underlying numbers of the Sabres. It also doesn’t hurt that the public wants nothing to do with bad teams. But hockey is a very luck based game, much more than football and basketball. So the worst teams can be bet on for profit. PLAY BUFFALO |
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03-03-21 | Maple Leafs v. Oilers +107 | 6-1 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 36 m | Show | |
14 Toronto at Edmonton Let’s keep this hot streak going with the Edmonton Oilers. In G+-/60 5x5 Toronto ranks 4th and Edmonton 18th. But the xG/60 has the Leafs +0.29 and the Oilers +0.01. Much closer than the actual goals would suggest. On the Power Play both teams have had success. Toronto ranks 2nd and Edmonton 9th in G+-/60. In xG/60 the Leafs are +8.57, while the Oilers are +7.59. Again closer than the actual goals scored. On the Penalty Kill in +-G/60 Toronto ranks 17th and Edmonton 19th. Looking at the advanced stats the Leafs are -4.67, and the Oilers -7.07. A bigger edge for Toronto than actual goals suggest. Now we take a look at the eye test. Toronto right now is feeling really good about themselves, and the national media is buying in. But as we know that is the exact time we look to fade a team, when fat and happy. Edmonton is playing much better now than earlier in the season, so the year to date numbers need to be taken with a grain of salt. The price is more than fair to back the home squad here, in what should be a terrific game to watch. PLAY EDMONTON |
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03-02-21 | Hurricanes -124 v. Predators | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
41 Carolina at Nashville Getting quite a bit of line value here with the visitor. In G+-/60 in 5x5 the Hurricanes rank 8th and the Predators are 29th. In xG/60 Carolina is +0.28 and Nashville +0.03. So Nashville is playing much better than its results, yet still well behind in this matchup. On the Power Play Carolina ranks 1st and Nashville 22nd. Looking at xG/60 the Hurricanes are +6.84, while the Preds are 5.79. Better than the actual ranking for the host, but still far behind the league leader. On the Penalty Kill we find the Hurricanes ranking 9th and the Predators 28th. Via xG/60 Carolina is -3.86, Nashville -6.29. That’s the major difference as Nashville is horrendous on the penalty kill. Let’s lay it with confidence. PLAY CAROLINA |
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03-02-21 | Flyers v. Penguins +100 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 49 m | Show | |
4 Philadelphia at Pittsburgh The Flyers rank 5th in G+-/60 in 5x5 play, while the Penguins rank 18th. In xG/60 Philadelphia is actually -0.05 and Pittsburgh -0.22. So a lot of Philadelphia’s success in 5x5 play has been puck luck. On the Power Play we find the Flyers ranking 16th and the Penguins 27th. In xG/60 Philadelphia is +5.48 and Pittsburgh +4.77. An edge in both counts to the visitor. On the Penalty Kill neither team is doing well with Pittsburgh ranking 27th and the Flyers at 29th. In xG/60 Pittsburgh is -6.03 and Philadelphia -7.13. A solid advantage for the host. While the numbers say this game is even, the eye test tells us something different. Pittsburgh really struggled in goal early on and seem to have corrected that problem. That and home ice gives us a nice betting opportunity on the host. The fade of the Flyers continues. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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03-01-21 | Canucks +120 v. Jets | 4-0 | Win | 120 | 12 h 32 m | Show | |
75 Vancouver at Winnipeg Winnipeg ranks 14th in G+-/60 in 5x5 play, while Vancouver sits at 27th. But the advanced stats show a different story. In xG/60 in 5x5 the Jets are -0.55, while the Canucks are -0.28. Which shows that these two clubs have had much different puck luck in this season of action. Taking a look at how they have fared on the Power Play, we find Winnipeg ranked 13th and the Canucks 28th. The advanced stats show the Jets at +5.80 G/60, and Vancouver at 5.57. Much closer than the scoreboard shows. In Penalty Killing Winnipeg once again shows a lead in rankings at 12th compared to 15th. In xG/60 we find the Jets at -6.39, and the Canucks at -7.47. The only category where Winnipeg agrees on both counts. The numbers show the Jets to be slightly better when taking puck luck into consideration, not nearly what this current line is saying. We will take the value on the Canucks with this plus money price. PLAY VANCOUVER |
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02-28-21 | Red Wings v. Blackhawks -182 | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show | |
66 Detroit at Chicago The Red Wings finally broke through against the Blackhawks last night, but we look for a reversal on Sunday. The advanced stats showed Detroit was very fortunate yesterday, as the game was much closer than the final score. When looking at xG/60 on 5x5 these two teams are very close. But that’s the only area in which Chicago doesn’t have an advantage. On the Power Play Chicago ranks 5th and Detroit ranks 30th. In xG/60 the Blackhawks are +6.35 and the Red Wings +4.61. On the Penalty Kill neither team has done well, with the host ranking 24th and the visitor 30th. The xG/60 are -6.41 for Chicago, and -6.90 for the visitor. Chicago by way of the Power Play will gain its revenge on Sunday. PLAY CHICAGO |
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02-27-21 | Hurricanes -118 v. Panthers | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 29 h 2 m | Show | |
41 Carolina at Florida These two rank 5th and 8th in G+-/60 in 5x5 action. In xG/60 the Hurricanes are +0.45, and the Panthers are +0.30. In looking at the Power Play Carolina ranks 3rd and Florida 6th. In xG/60 the Panthers are actually stronger at +8.05, compared to +6.99. In Penalty Killing is where these two separate. The Hurricanes rank 9th and the Panthers 16th. In xG/60 Carolina is -3.84, and Florida -6.61. We trust the visitor a bit more than the host here, and the line is well within our range. PLAY CAROLINA |
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02-27-21 | Penguins v. Islanders -115 | 4-3 | Loss | -115 | 29 h 56 m | Show | |
44 Pittsburgh at NY Islanders In G+-/60 in 5x5 action the Islanders rank 10th, while the Penguins are 20th. In xG/60 NY is +0.35 and Pittsburgh -0.20. So we are looking at more than a half goal advantage for the host. On the Power Play New York has a sizable advantage ranking 12th to 26th for Pittsburgh. In xG/60 the Islanders are +5.91 to +4.89. Closer but still a solid goal advantage for the host. The major difference between these two is the Penalty Kill. Where it’s a 5th to a 25th ranking advantage for New York. In xG/60 we find the Islanders -5.64 and the Penguins -5.52. Much better for Pittsburgh than the raw actual scoring numbers. The Islanders are the better team, but Pittsburgh is a bit underrated based on the advanced stats. Still, with revenge for a prior meeting and the home ice advantage, this number is rather cheap. PLAY NEW YORK ISLANDERS |
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02-27-21 | Flyers v. Sabres +138 | 3-0 | Loss | -100 | 1 h 16 m | Show | |
62 Philadelphia at Buffalo We’ve made a pretty penny this year fading the Flyers. We stubbornly bet on them in Lake Tahoe because of the price and deservedly lost 7-2 to the Bruins. But we are back on the fade train here against a Sabres team nobody is staring in line to bet. In G+-/60 in 5x5 action Philadelphia ranks 14th and Buffalo 30th. But when looking at the advanced stats we find the Flyers -0.38, and the Sabres -0.06. Buffalo is better but has suffered from puck luck. In Power Play action Buffalo ranks 1st and Philadelphia 14th. In xG/60 the Sabres are +6.71 and the Flyers +5.08. Slightly closer than the actual on ice numbers. Even on the Penalty Kill Buffalo is doing better. Ranking 20th to 29th for Philadelphia. In xG/60 we find Buffalo -6.36 and Philadelphia -7.28. Not much was expected for Buffalo coming into the season, and the on ice numbers support that. But when looking underneath the surface we see a team playing in bad luck. Philadelphia was considered a contender, but even looking closer we find no reason to think anything is going to change. PLAY BUFFALO |
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02-25-21 | Stars v. Panthers -125 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
4 Dallas at Florida Quick revenge game for the Panthers who were shutout last night 3-0. When looking at G+-/60 5x5 rankings Dallas is 8th and Florida is 10th. The Stars are +0.39, the Panthers +0.28. In xG/60 Dallas is +0.17 and Florida +0.29. So slight value on the host. Looking at Power Play numbers these two are tied at 9.8 xG/60 which ranks 7th. But in looking at the advanced stats we find Dallas at +6.40 and Florida at +8.23. A larger advantage for the host. Taking a look at the Penalty Kill units, we find the Stars ranked 20th at -7.28, and the Panthers 15th at -6.15. The advanced stats are -6.93 for Dallas and -6.02 for the Panthers. So once again Florida has the edge. That coupled with home loss revenge from last night puts us squarely on the host. PLAY FLORIDA |
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02-24-21 | Wild +162 v. Avalanche | Top | 6-2 | Win | 162 | 25 h 47 m | Show |
89 Minnesota at Colorado Like the big underdog price here for the Wild, after Colorado played a tough four game series vs the Golden Knights. That was a huge series for both clubs as they are expected to be title contenders in the west. Looking at the numbers we find both teams slightly underrated in 5x5 play. Colorado with an xG/60 of +0.35 and Minnesota at +0.39. Colorado ranks 10th in Power Play G+-/60, Minnesota 25th. But the advanced stats has these two much closer. In xG/60 on the Power Play the Avalanche are +6.80, the Wild at +5.39. Looking at Penalty Killing these clubs are both excellent ranking 2 and 3 on the season. But the advanced numbers have Minnesota slightly better in xG/60 at -4.28 and Colorado at -6.21. These two clubs are very similar when looking at expected goals. That and the bad spot for the Avalanche put us squarely on the underdog here. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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02-24-21 | Flames +130 v. Maple Leafs | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 52 m | Show | |
61 Calgary at Toronto The Flames rank 18th in G+-/60 in 5x5, while the Maple Leafs are 4th ranked. But the advanced stats have these two much closer. In xG/60 Calgary is +0.16 and Toronto +0.29. Toronto has a sizable power play advantage in xG+-/60 at 8.93 to Calgary’s 5.05. The Leafs also have a -4.90 xG/60 to -6.07 advantage in the penalty kill. While the numbers show Toronto to be superior, we prefer the Flames. Early money has come in on the dog and we agree. Just don’t trust Toronto as a decent size favorite over a quality team. PLAY CALGARY |
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02-23-21 | Blackhawks v. Blue Jackets -125 | 6-5 | Loss | -125 | 22 h 24 m | Show | |
56 Chicago at Columbus In 5x5 action Columbus ranks 23rd and Chicago 29th in G+-/60. In xG/60 Chicago has fared better at -0.25 compared to -0.48 for Columbus. But keep in mind the Blue Jackets have played better since the big trade. The Chicago power play has been better ranking 8th compared to 21st in G+-/60. The xG/60 is also better for the Black Hawks at 6.28 compared to 3.85. The penalty killing is 19th for Chicago, and 20th for Columbus. But the Blue Jackets own the better xG/60 at -5.50 compared to Chicago’s -6.57. Columbus outplayed Chicago in the last meeting but the Black Hawks came away with the victory. At home seeking revenge we favor the Blue Jackets with this short line. PLAY COLUMBUS |
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02-22-21 | Wild -139 v. Sharks | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 50 m | Show | |
81 Minnesota at San Jose The Wild have a 5x5 xGF/60 0.48, while the Sharks sit at a -0.06. Which is about double what these teams have played to on the ice. The Sharks are showing a 6.60 xGF/60 on the power play, while the Wild come in at a slightly less 5.04. Minnesota ranks 3rd in G+-/60 on the penalty kill, with an xG/60 of -4.44. The Sharks rank 22nd in G+-/60 with a xG/60 of 4.82. We’ve lost some value overnight on the line, but there is still enough value out there to back the Wild. Play slightly less than our normal play. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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02-22-21 | Sabres +144 v. Islanders | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 3 m | Show | |
77 Buffalo at NY Islanders The two worst performing teams in 5x5 G+-/60 on the season are the Senators and the Sabres. But neither team is as bad as the numbers have shown. In fact, Ottawa was a nice underdog winner yesterday. The reason we are so confident in the value of these two teams are the advanced stats. For example Buffalo is -1.01 G+-/60 in 5x5 action. But looking at xG/60 the Sabres are actually +0.05. That’s over a goal per game better when taking out the luck factor. On the Power Play Buffalo ranks 3rd in the league, while the Islanders rank 13th. In xG+-/60 Buffalo should be +6.16, with NY at 6.13. On the Penalty Kill the Islanders rank 9th and the Sabres 16th. In xG/60 the Islanders are -5.79 and the Sabres -7.02. So Buffalo is just as good as the Islanders in every category except on the penalty kill. And yet the value is on the visitor. Give us the Sabres in a game that plays out much closer to even than the line suggests. PLAY BUFFALO |
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02-21-21 | Jets v. Canucks +100 | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 20 m | Show | |
34 Winnipeg at Vancouver In 5x5 play Winnipeg is virtually even in G+-/60, but in xGF/60 they are -0.39 goals. So the results have been better than they deserve. The Canucks on the other hand are -0.56 G+-/60, but should be slightly better at -0.29 when looking at XGF/60. The same type of numbers also show up in power play situations, as the Jets are overachieving while the Canucks have had poor puck luck. Both teams are close to projections on the penalty kill. With the expected numbers backing the host we find value of the Canucks. PLAY VANCOUVER |
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02-21-21 | Flyers +155 v. Bruins | 3-7 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 55 m | Show | |
25 Philadelphia at Boston We’ve been fading the Flyers on a regular basis this season because their advanced stats don’t equal the on ice results. Tonight we look to back them as this line is simply too large. When betting for a living it’s all about value, and the Bruins right now are an overpriced team. We could get into all the reasons, but the truth is we know value when we see it and the Bruins don’t deserve to be this large a favorite. In G+-/60 the lucky Flyers rank 7th, while Boston ranks 17th. These two are much closer in talent than this line suggests. PLAY PHILADELPHIA |
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02-19-21 | Oilers +110 v. Flames | 2-1 | Win | 110 | 26 h 7 m | Show | |
69 Edmonton at Calgary The Oilers are at a slight disadvantage here in 5x5 action. Edmonton is -0.11 in G+-/60 and -0.01 with xGF/60. Calgary is +0.29 in G+-/60 and +0.16 in XGF/60. Edmonton does have a substantial edge on the power play ranking 10th in xGF% with a +14 goal advantage. Calgary ranks 26th in xGF% with a +9 goal power play advantage. Both teams are close to even in penalty killing with the Oilers -12 goals and the Flames -11 goals. The power play edge for the visitor is too good to ignore in this price range. Give us the Oilers to grab this road victory. PLAY EDMONTON |
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02-18-21 | Wild v. Ducks +113 | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 57 m | Show | |
64 Minnesota at Anaheim We agree the Wild should be favored here based on the advanced stats. But to make them a road favorite of this size we disagree with. When it comes to 5x5 play the results are basically even but the Wild have been controlling the puck and deserve better results. On the power play neither team has had much success with both teams scoring just three times with a man advantage. The teams are each -6 goals on the penalty kill. So the actual numbers show these two squads being dead even. The advanced stats show an edge for the visitor in 5x5 action. No matter how we work these numbers this line is too high for the Wild. PLAY ANAHEIM |
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02-18-21 | Islanders +106 v. Penguins | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 3 m | Show | |
49 NY Islanders at Pittsburgh The Islanders have a +5 advantage in goals scored on 5x5 between these two. They also rank higher in puck control. There is a big advantage to the Islanders on the power play. With a +10 advantage compared to only +4 for the Penguins. In xGF% the Penguins are dead last in the league. On the penalty kill NY is -6 and the Penguins are -11. So the actual game stats show a huge edge for the visitor. Using xG/60 in 5x5 play the numbers show the Islanders with a 0.34 goals advantage, slightly better than the +0.22 G+-/60. Pittsburgh is -0.18 xG/60, slightly better than the actual -0.29. The Islanders are the better team and the advanced stats agree. PLAY NEW YORK ISLANDERS |
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02-17-21 | Jets v. Oilers -135 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 28 h 36 m | Show | |
46 Winnipeg at Edmonton The Jets are becoming one of the most overrated teams in the league. Despite the 9-5-1 record the Jets rank 30th in xGF% in 5x5 action. On the season they are 12th in G+-/60 at +0.19, but are -0.59 in xG/60 in 5x5 play. That’s playing 3/4 goals per game better than they deserve. The Oilers are at -0.26 G+-/60, but are actually +0.01 xG/60. Edmonton is better on the power play at +13 to +11. Lay the price with the host here. PLAY EDMONTON |
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02-17-21 | Blackhawks v. Red Wings +114 | 2-0 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 9 m | Show | |
42 Chicago at Detroit The Blackhawks are 8-5-4 on the year, while the Red Wings are 4-10-3. So you can see why Chicago is a road favorite here. Luckily we don’t just pick up the sports page to make our selections. When looking at 5x5 xGF% Detroit ranks 22nd, while Chicago sits 29th. The Red Wings have actually been outscored by less than the Blackhawks in 5x5 play. In G+-/60 in 5x5 play Detroit is actually 0.28 goals better than Chicago. When looking at xGF/60 Detroit is better by 0.22 goals. Yes, the Chicago special teams have performed much better, but you have to take that with a grain of salt considering the small sample size. But still the Blackhawks own the advantage there. But is it nearly enough to make them prohibitive favorites on the road? We don’t buy it. PLAY DETROIT |
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02-16-21 | Devils v. Rangers -143 | 5-2 | Loss | -143 | 20 h 34 m | Show | |
80 New Jersey at NY Rangers The Devils rank 3rd in the league in G+-/60 when 5x5 at +0.99. But when looking at the advanced stats in the category of xGF/60 New Jersey is +0.12. So this team has been very fortunate to have a 4-3-2 record. The Rangers rank 24th on G+-/60 in 5x5 play at -0.45. But the advanced stats show the Rangers to be a bit unlucky at 0.01 xGF/60. The Rangers have the advantage on the power play at +5, while the Devils are +2. In fact, New Jersey has just three power play goals on the season. The Rangers are -6 goals on the penalty kill, New Jersey is -11. So while the two teams are virtually equal in 5x5 xGF%, the Rangers special teams are much better. PLAY NEW YORK RANGERS |
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02-15-21 | Blue Jackets v. Hurricanes -166 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 24 h 20 m | Show |
88 Columbus at Carolina The Blue Jackets with a quick one game series with the Hurricanes a week after splitting two games at home. Both games were decided by a single tally in regulation. Columbus ranks 20th in G+-/60 in 5x5 action, being outscored by 0.22 goals. In looking at xGF/60 in 5x5 the Blue Jackets sit at -0.44. So they have been slightly lucky. Carolina ranks 7th in G+-/60 at +0.59 goals, while the xGF/60 in 5x5 action is 0.66. Neither team has given up a goal when on the power play with Columbus scoring 7 times, and Carolina 10 times. Columbus is -6 goals when on a penalty kill, the Hurricanes -8 goals. Carolina returns home after traveling to Chicago, Columbus and Dallas. This is just the fourth home game of the season for the host, currently 3-0 on the year. While we don’t normally like to back a team coming home from a road trip, the exception is a holiday such as Valentines Day. It’s a time to show appreciation for your wives and family, and that’s a positive thing. PLAY CAROLINA |
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02-13-21 | Flames v. Canucks +128 | 1-3 | Win | 128 | 28 h 3 m | Show | |
78 Vancouver at Calgary The Canucks really outplayed Calgary on Thursday despite the 3-1 defeat. Vancouver had an expected goal advantage of 3.31-1.72, which is pretty dominant. In fact, according to Money Puck’s Deserve to Win O’Meter, Vancouver should have won 75.3% of meetings with those shot attempts. The teams are virtually equal in xGF% on the power play. Keep in mind the Canucks have faced Edmonton twice, Calgary three times, Montreal five times along with Toronto three times. That’s a hell of a schedule for this time of the season. Expect the Canucks numbers to normalize starting today. PLAY VANCOUVER |
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02-13-21 | Hurricanes v. Stars +109 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 26 h 11 m | Show |
74 Carolina at Dallas Dallas has beaten up on bad teams thus far, but have struggled when stepping up in class. But we did see a light at the end of the tunnel on Thursday. Despite the 5-3 loss, Dallas dominated play. Winning expected goals 3.90-3.39. Looking at the Money Puck Deserve to Win O’Meter, the Stars should have won 72.9% of games with those shooting stats. The teams are very similar on the penalty kill, but Dallas is superior on the power play. The Stars rank 10th in xGF% as opposed to Carolina which is 16th. Dallas is +14 goals with a player advantage, the Canes just +9. Look for Dallas to gain confidence off that defeat and even up this series. PLAY DALLAS |
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02-12-21 | Bruins v. Rangers +149 | 1-0 | Loss | -100 | 26 h 21 m | Show | |
56 Boston at NY Rangers You wouldn’t believe it by this line but the Bruins have been outscored this year in 5x5 play. Allowing 19 goals while only scoring 18. That’s not what you would expect from a team with a 9-1-2 record. On penalty kills the Bruins have been very fortunate by scoring three times short-handed while allowing five goals. They rank 15th in G+-/60 in 5x5 play, slightly higher than the 22nd ranked Rangers. New York dropped a 3-2 overtime decision on Wednesday. A game in which the Rangers had a 2.97-2.67 expected goal edge. Boston is the better team, but not by the size of this line. Give us the Rangers to even up this two game series. PLAY NEW YORK RANGERS |
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02-11-21 | Oilers +130 v. Canadiens | 3-0 | Win | 130 | 10 h 1 m | Show | |
27 Edmonton at Montreal Really tough spot here for the Canadiens after facing rival Toronto on this ice last night. The offensive explosion earlier in the season is starting to fade, after scoring only twice against Ottawa in their two game series. Montreal was leading the league in G+-/60 but are still showing a high positive xGF. But regression is a bitch and this team is now dealing with it. How much regression is coming? How about this statistic. Montreal has scored 7 goals this year on the penalty kill. No other team in the league has more than two. Edmonton was swept in the earlier two meetings 5-1 and 3-1. In that last contest Edmonton actually should have won based on expected goals. In fact, the win expectancy was just slightly in the Canadiens favor. Let’s look for the Oilers to take advantage of the situation and grab this important victory. PLAY EDMONTON |
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02-09-21 | Jets v. Flames -128 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
22 Winnipeg at Calgary The Jets have a slightly positive 5x5 G+-/60 at 0.09, but looking at expected goals the deficit is more pronounced at -0.34. The Jets are 7-3-1 on the season but have only outscored the opposition in 5x5 23 to 21. The Flames are 5-5-1 on the year but have outscored the opposition 19 to 16 in 5x5 play. The Flames have a G+-/60 on 5x5 of 0.33. It holds up in expected goals at 0.27. We will back the host tonight in what is a very fair number. PLAY CALGARY |
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02-06-21 | Canadiens -247 v. Senators | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 2 h 14 m | Show | |
33 Montreal at Ottawa Is this play obvious? Of course. But that doesn’t mean it doesn’t have value. Montreal did everything in that last matchup except win. This club still ranks #1 in the league in G+-/60. It has an xGF/60 of 1.04. It’s still an elite team after losing one game. Ottawa still ranks dead last in G+-/60 at -1.81. Its xGF/60 is -0.40. The Senators are better than their record, but still lacking in talent compared to the Canadiens. PLAY MONTREAL |
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02-05-21 | Predators v. Panthers -126 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 36 m | Show |
26 Nashville at Florida The Panthers dominated play yesterday and let a win slip through their fingers. We expect a similar game with different results here. In 5x5 play this season the Preds are being outscored by 0.07 G/60, the expected goal differential is -0.05. Florida has been the much better team at +0.36 G/60, and an even better 0.42 in xG/60 in 5x5 play. The Panthers rank 9th in xGF% in 5x5 while the Preds sit 17th. Better team with motivation puts us squarely on the home squad. PLAY FLORIDA |
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02-04-21 | Flames -115 v. Jets | 1-4 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 42 m | Show | |
15 Calgary at Winnipeg The Flames were a small favorite on Monday and came up short against the Jets 2-1. But Calgary actually outplayed Winnipeg in that contest when looking at the advanced numbers. When looking at G/60 on the season with 5x5 action Calgary is +0.25, while the Jets are -0.13. In xG/60 in 5x5 play Calgary should have a +0.31 advantage, while Winnipeg has a .40 deficit. The Flames are just 4-4-1 on the season but are playing better than the 6-3-1 Jets. Look for Calgary to bounce back here with a solid victory. PLAY CALGARY |
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02-04-21 | Capitals v. Rangers -107 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 19 m | Show | |
10 Washington at NY Rangers Major regression coming for the Capitals who in our numbers are the most overrated team in the league. In 5x5 per 60 minutes Washington is outscoring the opposition by 0.87 goals. Which is the fifth best in the league. But when you look at xGF/GA per 60 the Capitals should have been outscored 2.10-1.78. They have been extremely fortunate. The Rangers on the other hand played much better last game without DiAngelo on the team. Many times cutting a player is actually a positive, and in the one game sample size New York looked much more lively. NY in G+-/60 on 5x5 is being outscored by 0.45 goals, but when looking at expected goals that number reduces to -0.02. So we have a team that is majorly overrated against a team that is better than its record would show. Give is the Rangers at this bargain price. PLAY NEW YORK RANGERS |
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02-03-21 | Bruins -129 v. Flyers | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 58 m | Show | |
75 Boston at Philadelphia The matchup we have been waiting for. Our numbers have the Bruins as a major contender this season, while we feel the Flyers are the most overrated team in the league. In 5x5 action the Flyers have outscored the opposition 2.85-2.60 in GF/GA per 60 minutes. But in xGF/GA per 60 minutes they should have been outscored 2.02-2.38. This is a lucky team thus far that doesn’t deserve their 7-2-1 record. Boston is 6-1-2 and owns a 1.96-1.97 deficit in GF/GA per 60 in 5x5 action. But deserves a whopping 2.11-1.56 advantage in that category. In all categories Boston should be 2.72-2.04 and Philadelphia 2.61-2.69. The Bruins are the much better team and the early betting backs that up. The public will likely be on a home dog with a gaudy record, we will fade the public in this one. PLAY BOSTON |
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02-02-21 | Coyotes +151 v. Blues | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 24 m | Show | |
61 Arizona at St Louis Nice price on the Coyotes who rank 12th in xGF% on the season. They have played better than the 3-4-1 record. St Louis ranks 26th in xGF% but have been much more fortunate. When looking at xGF/xGA/60 the Coyotes are -0.13 while the Blues sit at -0.40. This line should be more towards the pick ‘em price. PLAY ARIZONA |
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02-01-21 | Bruins -137 v. Capitals | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 23 h 46 m | Show | |
43 Boston at Washington Season long xGF% when 5x5 is clearly in the favor of the Bruins, ranking 4th compared to the Senators 25th. That is in stark contrast to the results of 5x5 play. Boston has been outscored 12 to 10 while the Senators own a 24 to 15 advantage. Even in the previous meeting the Bruins had an xGF advantage of 4.19 to 1.79 and still found a way to drop a 4-3 game. That was the first game back for some key Washington players, so you can understand the emotional lift. But Boston is the better team, and we expect some revenge in this one. PLAY BOSTON |
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02-01-21 | Predators +154 v. Lightning | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 41 m | Show | |
45 Nashville at Tampa Bay In 5x5 action Nashville ranks 13th while the Lightning come in ranking 9th. The Predators have outscored the opposition 12 to 10, while Tampa owns a 13 to 6 5x5 advantage. Nashville played the Lightning tough on Saturday in a 4 to 3 loss. But these two clubs were very even in that contest with Tampa only owning a 2.44 to 2.42 xGF advantage. Tampa is the better team, but Nashville at this price is worthy of a wager. PLAY NASHVILLE |
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02-01-21 | Penguins v. Rangers -101 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 23 h 39 m | Show | |
48 Pittsburgh at NY Rangers The Penguins have already beaten the Rangers three times this year. Each game by one score with two going extra time. When looking at the xGF & xGA in those contests Pittsburgh should have lost the first meeting by 0.17 goals, won the second by 0.21 goals and won the third by just 0.09 goals. So after three games that were coin flips the Penguins sit a perfect 3-0. That kind of luck doesn’t last long in this league. In the last seven Rangers games they have outscored the opposition 22-19, yet won just two of those contests. Pittsburgh has been outscored on the season 34-27 yet have a 5-3-1 record. The Rangers finally get in the win column on Monday. PLAY NY RANGERS |
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01-31-21 | Islanders +108 v. Flyers | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 7 m | Show | |
31 NY Islanders at Philadelphia The Philadelphia Flyers are the most overrated team in the league based on its 6-2-1 record. Sure this team was highly thought of coming into the season, but the scoreboard simply doesn’t indicate how bad the ice numbers are for this squad. The Flyers rank 28th in xGF% on 5x5 at 43.93. Just ahead of the Sharks, Kings and Ducks. The Islanders rank 16th in that category. But in reality New Jersey has been outscored 5x5 14 to 11, while the Flyers are up 20 to 19. After losing in a shootout yesterday, we expect the 3-4-1 Islanders to play with major motivation here. Line is just too high to pass up. PLAY NY ISLANDERS |
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01-31-21 | Blue Jackets v. Blackhawks +127 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 127 | 8 h 59 m | Show |
34 Columbus at Chicago By our numbers the Blue Jackets are one of the most overrated teams in the league. In 5x5 action they have produced a xGF% of 45.21 which ranks 27th, yet they have outscored the opposition 17 to 16. Chicago on the other hand have an xGF% of 48.21 but have been outscored 18 to 11. In Friday’s matchup Columbus won 2-1 but were completely dominated. Chicago had a whopping 69.86 xGF% and should have won the game 3.41 to 1.47 according to Evolving Hockey. Now with a day off we expect a better outcome for the Blackhawks. PLAY CHICAGO |
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01-31-21 | Devils +141 v. Sabres | 5-3 | Win | 141 | 2 h 29 m | Show | |
25 New Jersey at Buffalo Early starting game for Sunday. The Sabres pulled out a 4-3 shootout victory over the Devils yesterday. But according to Evolving Hockey they were fortunate to do so. The Devils held an xGF% edge in that contest of 55.15. They should have won based on the way the game was played 2.85-2.32. On the season in 5x5 action Buffalo has been outscored 18 to 14, while the Devils are up 14 to 10. If New Jersey can do a better job of staying out of the penalty box, they have a solid shot of gaining revenge here. We’ve been higher on the Sabres this year than just about everyone, but the value is on the dog here. PLAY NEW JERSEY |
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01-30-21 | Flames +112 v. Canadiens | 2-0 | Win | 112 | 27 h 41 m | Show | |
11 Calgary at Montreal Is it possible that the Canadiens are overrated right now? According to the advanced stats that’s exactly what is happening. Montreal in 5x5 action is averaging 3.84 goals per 60 minutes, allowing 1.82 goals per 60 minutes. That’s a whopping 2.02 goals advantage per game. But in comparison to expected goals per contest, Montreal should average 2.49 and allow 1.65. Still very good, but nowhere near the success they have had in this short season. The Flames rank 14th in 5x5 xGF%, yet have been outscored on the season. But they are expected to score 2.30 goals per game and allow just 2.08. While the Canadiens have gotten extremely lucky, the Flames have played better than their record. Value on the dog here. PLAY CALGARY |
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01-30-21 | Penguins v. Rangers -105 | 5-4 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 41 m | Show | |
18 Pittsburgh at NY Rangers Pittsburgh has a 4-3-1 record but has been outscored 30 to 22 on the season. When looking at G+-/60 the Penguins rank 29th, just ahead of Detroit and Ottawa. When looking at xGF & xGA per 60 minutes Pittsburgh should be scoring 2.37 goals a game while allowing 2.52. This is a fringe playoff team at best, but are being priced too high in the betting markets. The Rangers currently have a G+-/60 of -0.11, but are expected to outscore the opposition 2.84 to 2.45 via xGF%. So despite the 2-4-1 record this team has actually played better than the Penguins. The Rangers lost the two previous matchups on the road 4-3 on a shootout and 3-2. They avenge those losses here. PLAY NY RANGERS |
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01-30-21 | Maple Leafs v. Oilers +109 | 3-4 | Win | 109 | 27 h 40 m | Show | |
14 Toronto at Edmonton The Maple Leafs are considered along with Montreal to be the best team in this division. But despite the 7-2-0 record, this team is only outscoring the opposition 5x5 16 to 14. It ranks 22nd in xGF%, Edmonton ranks 13th yet has been outscored 5x5 22 to 15. Toronto overall has outscored the opposition 30 to 25, but has a xGF/60 of 2.31 while allowing 2.40. Toronto has been a very fortunate squad. Edmonton ranks 8th overall in xGF% but have been outscored 33 to 26. In xGF/60 in 5x5 action they should be scoring 2.70 goals per game while allowing 2.62. This team is better than its 3-6-0 record. The Oilers played well in the last matchup but failed to get the victory. They remedy that on Saturday. PLAY EDMONTON |
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01-28-21 | Ducks v. Coyotes -135 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 49 m | Show | |
52 Anaheim at Arizona The Ducks took care of the Coyotes a couple days ago in a low scoring slugfest. But the host is the better team by the eye test and by our numbers. Anaheim ranks 30th in xGF% and have been outscored just 14 to 12. They have been very lucky in that regard. Arizona is 20th ranked in xGF%. They have also been outscored by 2, 19 to 17. Neither team fares well on the power play with the Ducks ranking dead last and the Coyotes not much higher at 28th in xGF%. Look for another low scoring contest with the host evening the series. PLAY ARIZONA |
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01-28-21 | Red Wings +190 v. Stars | 3-7 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 30 m | Show | |
49 Detroit at Dallas About time for some Dallas Stars regression. They have outscored the opposition 12 to 3 yet rank dead last in xGF%. This team has feasted on the power play scoring 9 goals without allowing any. Its xGF% on power plays is 100.0%, easily ranking at #1 in the NHL. Detroit is in the middle of the pack in xGF% but have been outscored 22 to 13. The Red Wings are the underdog for a reason, but this line is a bit crazy considering the Dallas luck factor. PLAY DETROIT |
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01-28-21 | Kings v. Wild -160 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 55 m | Show | |
48 Las Angeles at Minnesota Kings are 3-2-2 despite ranking dead last in 5x5 xGF% at 42.28. They have been outscored 5x5 13-12 on the season. Minnesota on the other hand ranks 2nd1/28/2021 in 5x5 xGF% at 58.61. They have been outscored 12-10 on the season in 5x5 action. It’s been the power play in which the Kings have dominated with a 6-0 GF/GA. Minnesota has struggled thus far in that category with a 2-0 GF/GA mark. Our numbers in all strengths show the Wild ranking 5th with LA coming in at 19th. Look for a quick revenge winner with the Wild. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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01-26-21 | Maple Leafs v. Flames +102 | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 33 h 50 m | Show | |
24 Toronto at Calgary Leafs are a bit overrated in this contest, coming in with a nice 5-2 record. But this club ranks 10th in 5x5 xGF%, and has outscored the opposition at full strength 22-19. Calgary is just 2-1-1 on the season, but has a 3rd ranked 56.63 xGF% in 5x5 action. The Flames have outscored the opposition 13-9 when playing at full strength. Finding value on the host in this one. PLAY CALGARY |
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01-25-21 | Senators +135 v. Canucks | 1-7 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 22 m | Show | |
65 Ottawa at Vancouver After two heavy cards of action on Saturday and Sunday, the lone battle on the ice for Monday is in Canada. Two teams desperate for a victory get together when Ottawa visits Vancouver. Simply can’t trust the Canucks here who rank 29th in the league in 5x5 xGF%. This is a team that has given up 20 goals already in 5x5 play. Ottawa ranks 20th in xGF% in 5x5 action. Being outscored just 11 to 9 at full strength. With home ice advantage meaning less this season than any other, the road dog has solid value. PLAY OTTAWA |
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01-24-21 | Red Wings +118 v. Blackhawks | 2-6 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 25 m | Show | |
43 Detroit at Chicago Morning action here on Sunday as the Red Wings look to even this series. The visitor has a slightly better xGF% in 5x5 action. Detroit has been outscored 8 to 6 at full strength, the Blackhawks on the other hand have been outscored 14-4 in 5x5 play. Detroit was a no show in the last meeting, and are a bargain in this quick revenge spot. PLAY DETROIT |
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01-23-21 | Senators +132 v. Jets | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 26 m | Show | |
41 Ottawa at Winnipeg Despite the records showing Winnipeg to be the better team, we find value on the road underdog on Saturday. The Jets are showing an 8-4 scoring advantage in 5x5 action. But a closer look shows they rank 21st in xGF%. This team has been getting very fortunate. The Senators on the other hand are only 1-2-1 but are ranked 13th in xGF%. The Jets won the previous meeting 4-1 but expected goals were dead even, as well as money puck’s deserve to win meter. The clear value is on Ottawa here as we take the plus money visitor. PLAY OTTAWA |
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01-22-21 | Avalanche v. Ducks +170 | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 12 m | Show | |
28 Las Vegas at Arizona The Knights are a perfect 4-0 on the season, but have been very fortunate thus far with great 3rd period success. The Golden Knights are outscoring the opposition in 5 on 5 10-5 thus far. But when looking at xGF% they rank 16th in the league. Vegas has gotten great goaltending thus far, but have been very inconsistent in scoring. Arizona is a team we want to be on in the underdog role. Despite the 1-2-1 record this club ranks 7th in the league in xGF% at 55.22. Just above Colorado, Montreal and Calgary. This despite being outscored 9-7 in 5 on 5 action. We watch every Vegas game being a season ticket holder. This team has been extremely fortunate in the early going. PLAY ARIZONA |
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01-22-21 | Golden Knights v. Coyotes +155 | 2-5 | Win | 155 | 8 h 10 m | Show | |
28 Las Vegas at Arizona The Knights are a perfect 4-0 on the season, but have been very fortunate thus far with great 3rd period success. The Golden Knights are outscoring the opposition in 5 on 5 10-5 thus far. But when looking at xGF% they rank 16th in the league. Vegas has gotten great goaltending thus far, but have been very inconsistent in scoring. Arizona is a team we want to be on in the underdog role. Despite the 1-2-1 record this club ranks 7th in the league in xGF% at 55.22. Just above Colorado, Montreal and Calgary. This despite being outscored 9-7 in 5 on 5 action. We watch every Vegas game being a season ticket holder. This team has been extremely fortunate in the early going. PLAY ARIZONA |
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01-22-21 | Sabres -109 v. Capitals | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -109 | 6 h 17 m | Show |
15 Buffalo at Washington Senators will be short handed tonight with the Covid news affecting key players. Even at full strength this team has been a bit overrated this year. Washington ranks 23rd in 5 on 5 xGF%. They have outscored the opposition 5 on 5 12-7 but are only showing 45.79% in xGF%. Now without key pieces we expect this team to struggle. As opposed to Washington, Buffalo is a team we want to play on. Despite the 1-3-0 record this team ranks 3rd in the NHL in 5 on 5 xGF% of 58.61. The Sabres have been outscored 9-7 in 5 on 5, but deserve a much better result. PLAY BUFFALO |
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01-21-21 | Canadiens -131 v. Canucks | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show | |
11 Montreal at Vancouver The Habs outplayed the Canucks last night and still walked away with a shootout loss. We look for Montreal to even the score here. They rank 12th in the league in 5 vs 5 xGF% compared to the host at 26th. The Vancouver victory yesterday was the first of the season. A main reason was the penalty situation. The Habs had 12 penally minutes while the Canucks had just two. Montreal is the better team and primed after what they feel was a game it should have won. PLAY MONTREAL |
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01-21-21 | Jets v. Senators +110 | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 15 m | Show | |
2 Winnipeg at Ottawa Thursday the Jets beat Ottawa 4-3 in overtime. The Senators dominated play in that contest with a 71.7% winning expectancy, along with a 2.96-1.80 goal expectancy. Murray was terrible in the net with a .857 save percentage. In xGF% the Jets rank 28th in the league while the Senators are a surprising 5th. Look for the host to get its revenge here as Ottawa continues its good start to the season. PLAY OTTAWA |
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01-19-21 | Blue Jackets v. Red Wings +160 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 160 | 18 h 55 m | Show |
072 Columbus at Detroit Really like the way Detroit played yesterday despite the loss. This is a team that doesn’t have a great deal of talent, but has been very feisty thus far. Been looking for the chance to fade the Blue Jackets, and this looks like a terrific squad. Clear fade of a team we feel is overrated. PLAY DETROIT |
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01-19-21 | Blackhawks +148 v. Panthers | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 33 m | Show | |
63 Chicago at Florida Panthers seem to be getting a great deal of credit for just one game. Our xGF% numbers with 5 on 5 ranks them near the bottom at 27th. Not the type of numbers we want with a favorite of this size. Chicago on the other hand is 21st in that same category, despite not tasting victory yet this season. This is the type of game the pros pad their bankrolls with. PLAY CHICAGO |
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01-18-21 | Hurricanes -114 v. Predators | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 22 h 8 m | Show | |
45 Carolina at Nashville To our eyes the Hurricanes have been just as impressive as any other team in the early going. They lost a game they dominated last time out vs Detroit, so there is no looking past the Preds tonight. Nashville is undefeated with back to back wins over Columbus. But we weren’t impressed at all in those victories. The better all around team is Carolina, and they bounce back here. PLAY CAROLINA |
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01-16-21 | Sharks v. Coyotes -125 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 4 h 37 m | Show | |
16 San Jose at Arizona The Coyotes outplayed the Sharks in the last matchup but lost based on puck luck. In retrospect we should have been on the visitor in the opening game. The media was brutal in the offseason regarding the demise of the Sharks, and the team came out with something to prove. But it’s still an aging team that has seen better days. Look for more normalcy here as the Coyotes get their revenge. PLAY ARIZONA |
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01-15-21 | Penguins -106 v. Flyers | 2-5 | Loss | -106 | 20 h 4 m | Show | |
1 Pittsburgh at Philadelphia If you watched the last meeting on opening night, it was clear that the Penguins were the aggressor. In fact, they had the edge in expected goals 2.74 to 2.50. We rate these two clubs evenly to start the season. And without any home ice advantage, along with no travel. We look for the visitor to even up this quick two game opening series. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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01-14-21 | Ducks +1.5 v. Golden Knights | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -132 | 35 h 31 m | Show |
71 Anaheim at Las Vegas The Ducks don’t have a great deal of offense, but their youth is very exciting. This is a team that will get better as the year goes on, and will always play full out. Vegas is expected to contend out west, but we do have some worries early on with our home town team. This was by far the strongest home arena in the NHL in the past. The lack of fans along with the league’s Covid rules will lessen that advantage more than any other team. Vegas is always a destination for visiting teams, but these players won’t be going out partying like in the past. The Golden Knights also will be without two major pieces of the puzzle this season because of cap issues. While Petrangelo is a great signing, not sure this team is better without Schmitty and Patches. PLAY ANAHEIM +1 1/2 |
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01-13-21 | Canucks +125 v. Oilers | 5-3 | Win | 125 | 11 h 53 m | Show | |
Vancouver at Edmonton PLAY VANCOUVER |
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01-13-21 | Canadiens +125 v. Maple Leafs | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 97 h 1 m | Show | |
43 Montreal at Toronto We really liked the way the Habs played at the end of last season. This is a team on the rise. Expect the goaltending to be even better this season. We always like taking teams that have strong possession numbers, and this team ranked right behind the Golden Knights and the Lightning in that regard a year ago. Puck luck should be much better this season for Montreal. Toronto made a lot of changes in the offseason, and without preseason games we can assume a feeling out period early on. This is a great offense but we still have concerns about the defense and goaltending. Home ice advantage will be very low this season, so catching plus money with a capable road team is the way to go here. PLAY MONTREAL |
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09-23-20 | Lightning v. Stars +139 | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 49 m | Show | |
026 Tampa Bay & Dallas The Lightning evened up the series last time out despite losing expected goals 5.44-3.34. In fact, after two games Dallas has an expected goal lead of 7.81-6.48. That’s pretty impressive for a Stars bunch who excels on the defensive end. This team packs down towards the goal and waits for a long deflection shot, leading to a fast break opportunity. It worked well throughout these playoffs. Tampa is likely the better team, but in hockey as we have seen the better team doesn’t always win. Give us the plus money with the Stars tonight. PLAY DALLAS |
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08-16-20 | Golden Knights -185 v. Blackhawks | 1-3 | Loss | -185 | 7 h 0 m | Show | |
047 Vegas and Chicago The Blackhawks gave everything it had yesterday and still came up short. Kane even played on multiple lines but it didn’t matter. Now Chicago has to win four straight over the only undefeated team in the playoffs. The Blackhawks were not a playoff caliber team this season and were lucky to be involved in the postseason at all. These players haven’t been outside the bubble in quite some time. Do you really think you will get a full effort out of Chicago here? Not against a Vegas team on a mission, with the best pair of goalies in the league. Not often we will lay this type of number, but it’s warranted here. PLAY VEGAS |
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08-07-20 | Oilers -121 v. Blackhawks | 2-3 | Loss | -121 | 5 h 34 m | Show | |
059 Edmonton and Chicago The Oilers completely dominated last game crushing Chicago in expected goals 5.58 to 2.30. And still Chicago walked away with the victory with two late goals. The Oilers were 4-2 this season after losing to a team it had a better expected goals against. Our rankings have Edmonton 12 places higher than these Black Hawks. Look for Edmonton to even the series. PLAY EDMONTON |
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08-07-20 | Penguins -160 v. Canadiens | 0-2 | Loss | -160 | 2 h 47 m | Show | |
055 Pittsburgh and Montreal We cashed with the Penguins last time they were off a loss in this series. We expect the same outcome here. Pittsburgh won expected goals last game 4.24-3.30, but lost the game 4-3. Montreal has played over its head in this series, and we look for the better team to even this up. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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08-05-20 | Oilers -121 v. Blackhawks | 3-4 | Loss | -121 | 8 h 26 m | Show | |
011 Edmonton and Chicago The Oilers played a very physical game last time out with success. We look for more of that here. Edmonton is the faster team and has the best player on the ice with McDavid. Despite not being the official home team here, the Oilers are in familiar territory. We rate Edmonton 12 spots higher than Chicago, cheap price to lay here. PLAY EDMONTON |
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08-04-20 | Wild -108 v. Canucks | 3-4 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 54 m | Show | |
041 Minnesota and Vancouver We backed the Wild in the opening game in this series, and we see no reason not to do it again. Minnesota simply dominated that game with a 3-0 victory and an expected goal edge of 4.03-1.37. Vancouver is a young inexperienced team that faded as the year played out. The Wild are a slight favorite here and our numbers agree, we have Minnesota eight slots higher in our rankings. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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08-04-20 | Coyotes v. Predators -132 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 4 h 52 m | Show | |
046 Arizona and Nashville Arizona won the opener 4-3 despite losing the expected goals battle 2.96-2.42. Our rankings show Nashville to be three slots better than Arizona. The pre-series line had Nashville a -135 favorite to advance. Now with their backs to the wall the line is very similar. Look for the Predators to even up this series. PLAY NASHVILLE |
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08-03-20 | Canadiens v. Penguins -160 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 22 h 35 m | Show |
028 Montreal and Pittsburgh The Canadiens pulled off the shocker in the opener as they out hustled Pittsburgh from the get go. But despite the 3-2 overtime victory, Pittsburgh dominated in expected goals. With the better defense and with their backs to the wall, we see Pittsburgh evening up this series on Monday. Pittsburgh has a distinct advantage at 5 on 5, so look for the Pens to play a much cleaner game. The special teams also favor the Pennsylvania squad, do power plays will be huge. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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08-02-20 | Wild +105 v. Canucks | 3-0 | Win | 105 | 31 h 6 m | Show | |
013 Minnesota and Vancouver Minnesota is allowing the fewest high danger chances in the league. While there are concerns about the Wild goaltending, we rank this Minnesota team to be the most complete. Our numbers have the Wild eight spots higher than the Canucks who got out of the gate hot and faded. We will back what we feel is a team with more upside. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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08-01-20 | Rangers v. Hurricanes -120 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 17 h 24 m | Show |
004 NY Rangers and Carolina While many feel the Rangers match up well with the Hurricanes, after winning all four regular season battles. We see it as New York was very fortunate, as Carolina had the higher expected goals in 3 of those four meetings. We are well aware of Carolina being shorthanded defensively, but our numbers clearly show this to be the much better team. The Hurricanes are our long shot to win the cup, and the price here is extremely cheap. PLAY CAROLINA |
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03-10-20 | Penguins v. Devils +160 | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 23 m | Show | |
48 Pittsburgh at New Jersey Want no part of these Penguins right now in this price range. Losing 8 of 10 overall and really struggling right now. Historically as good as Pittsburgh has been over the years, the Pens have dropped 7 of 10 in this series and 13 of 20 in New Jersey. The Devils have run off five straight at home. The betting value is clearly on the host here. PLAY NEW JERSEY |
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03-09-20 | Avalanche v. Kings +120 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 120 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
042 Colorado at Los Angeles The Kings have beaten the Avalanche 7 of 10 overall and 12 of 18 here at home. This is a team playing tremendous defense as of late, and are extremely underrated because of its record. Colorado is playing well right now and are the more popular team at the moment. That gives us nice value on the home underdog. PLAY LOS ANGELES KINGS |
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03-07-20 | Lightning +116 v. Bruins | 5-3 | Win | 116 | 7 h 35 m | Show | |
009 Tampa Bay at Boston Quick revenge spot here for the Lightning who dropped a 2-1 contest earlier in the week. Tampa Bay seems to be the only team that has played well against the Bruins winning 9 of the last 11 meetings. While Boston has been outstanding as usual on their home ice. We believe the value here is on the avenging Lightning. PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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03-07-20 | Hurricanes +109 v. Islanders | 3-2 | Win | 109 | 1 h 27 m | Show | |
001 Carolina at NY Islanders Neither team is playing well right now but we prefer to get the plus price here with the Hurricanes. Carolina has won 7 straight in this series, so confidence will not be a factor. That cannot be said for the hosts who are in a slump and playing a team that has owned them as of late. Wrong team favored here. PLAY CAROLINA |
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