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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-01-13 | Denver Broncos v. Kansas City Chiefs OVER 49 | 35-28 | Win | 100 | 23 h 35 m | Show | |
427 Denver at Kansas City
If you watched the first match-up it was clear that the Broncos were putting in an extra blocker to keep the pressure off Manning who was playing with an injured ankle. They relied on the running game to go along with the short passing attack. But now that Manning has had more time to rest and RB Marino is slightly banged up we expect the offense to open up a bit this week. The Chiefs haven |
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12-01-13 | St. Louis Rams +8 v. San Francisco 49ers | 13-23 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 6 m | Show | |
441 St Louis at San Francisco
The Rams are playing their best ball of the season now that the running game has improved. The last four weeks St Louis has produced 258, 140, 160 and 200 yards on the ground. Despite the loss in the first meeting this season, the Rams had covered the previous three contests by a combined 27 1/2 points. This team is 9-4 ATS as a road dog under Jeff Fisher who has always been known as a terrific underdog coach. After the 35-11 embarrassment in the first meeting we expect this club to be well prepared for this divisional rival. Short week for the Niners who looked terrific on Monday Night Football. Handicapping 101 says if a team looked good on MNF they will be overpriced the following week. With San Francisco off a MNF affair, a major showdown at New Orleans and a huge home contest against Carolina, this is a letdown spot for the the 49ers. It doesn |
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11-28-13 | Oakland Raiders v. Dallas Cowboys OVER 46.5 | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 29 h 54 m | Show | |
305 Oakland at Dallas
This line has risen a bit from the opener but we expect it to rise even further once the game day bettors get involved. Oakland struggled for the most part offensively early in the season but because of injuries the Raiders had to make a quarterback change. Since that time McGloin and company have been pretty consistent moving the football. Point totals of 28, 20, 20 and 21 the last four games and that was against better defensive teams than what they will face on Thursday. When looking at yards per play for the entire season 3 of the 4 categories offensively and defensively between these two clubs far exceed the league average. If you break down the Oakland offense the last three weeks they too exceed league average. So even though the sample size is lower in this instance the QB change has increased offensive performance, therefore we feel those short term numbers are more predictive. Oakland has had trouble keeping the quarterback upright most of the season, allowing an 11% sack rate. But the last three games have seen a huge drop off to 3% sacks, as the blocking has really improved with a pocket passer. Dallas can move the ball on anyone and the defense is playing without key components. Even when healthy the Cowboy stop unit had many questions. On a short week of preparation we give the edge to the offenses who don |
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11-24-13 | Denver Broncos v. New England Patriots +2.5 | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show | |
232 Denver at New England
While there is no doubt the Broncos aren |
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11-24-13 | Dallas Cowboys +3 v. NY Giants | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 8 h 35 m | Show | |
229 Dallas at NY Giants
The Cowboys are coming out of the bye week off a blowout loss at New Orleans. This is a team that has lost just twice all season by more than 3 points. Much will be made of the first meeting between these two when the Giants held a 147 yard advantage but lost because of a major turnover disadvantage. But Dallas did create those turnovers and the Cowboys took advantage. New York has the superior yards per play advantage but most of that is because New York trailed badly in their games and had to pass the ball while the opposition looked to run the clock. Dallas has a huge edge in the points per play category as they are far more efficient. The Giants have won four straight games but they beat the likes of Minnesota, Philadelphia, Oakland and Green Bay. While the defense has played better against back-up quarterbacks the offense still has major concerns. We feel the Cowboys are the better team catching points and they have that extra week to prepare. The Giants remain fraudulent and the four wins are all questionable. PLAY DALLAS |
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11-17-13 | Kansas City Chiefs +8 v. Denver Broncos | 17-27 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 24 m | Show | |
Kansas City at Denver
Much has been said about the Chiefs easy schedule, but Denver has faced just one team (Indy) with a current winning record. BTW the Broncos lost that game. These teams have played four of the same opponents: Dallas, Philadelphia, the NY Giants and Oakland. Both teams are 4-0 with the Chiefs winning by 52 points and the Broncos winning by 69 points. Kansas City continues to find ways to win and the cold Denver night time weather is a concern for Payton's ankle problems. PLAY KANSAS CITY |
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11-11-13 | Miami Dolphins -1 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 19-22 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 47 m | Show | |
227 Miami at Tampa Bay
This is a football game with a great deal of volatility. We have the Miami Dolphins who have been under the media microscope all week long taking on the only winless team in the NFL. This is the type of game that can make you look brilliant or like a complete moron. Despite the circumstances we feel we have the clear pointspread winner, and we are stepping out on MNF for just the third time this season. First of all let |
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11-10-13 | Dallas Cowboys v. New Orleans Saints -6.5 | 17-49 | Win | 100 | 33 h 58 m | Show | |
226 Dallas at New Orleans
Just don |
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11-10-13 | Houston Texans v. Arizona Cardinals -2 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 104 h 53 m | Show |
222 Houston at Arizona
Let |
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11-10-13 | Carolina Panthers v. San Francisco 49ers OVER 42.5 | 10-9 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 35 m | Show | |
219 Carolina at San Francisco
Dating back to last year the Carolina Panthers have scored 21 points or more on the road in 10 of their last 11 games away from Bank of America Stadium. Ever since the coaching staff took the reigns off Cam Newton this offense has exploded. The last four games the Panthers have produced 34, 31, 30 and 35 points. This offense is fully capable of moving the ball on San Francisco and doing so with relative ease. With San Francisco and New England on deck it |
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11-10-13 | Philadelphia Eagles v. Green Bay Packers | 27-13 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 31 m | Show | |
206 Philadelphia at Green Bay
Simply put this is a classic injury overreaction in the betting marketplace. Aaron Rodgers goes down early on Monday Night Football and the Packers were not prepared. After all, the back-up from a year ago Graham Harrell only took four snaps last season. Now with six days to prepare and a logjam atop the NFC North standings, you know the rest of the Green Bay roster will be paying special attention to the game plan. Until last Monday the Packers had gone 29-2 SU at home dating back to the 2009 season. The three wins this year were by margins of 18, 13 and 18 points in Lambeau Field. With Chicago getting their quarterback healthy and the Lions purring along the Packers know this is a pull up your bootstraps type of game. Seneca Wallace isn |
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11-03-13 | Baltimore Ravens -1 v. Cleveland Browns | Top | 18-24 | Loss | -123 | 76 h 26 m | Show |
417 Baltimore at Cleveland
You can bet the Super Bowl Champions will give a terrific effort when they travel to Cleveland on Sunday. This is a team who is coming in off a bye after losing back to back nail biters. In fact, Baltimore is 1-3 on the season in games decided by 3 points or less. They have been in every game since the opening contest against the Broncos and now it |
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11-03-13 | Tennessee Titans -1 v. St. Louis Rams | 28-21 | Win | 100 | 44 h 7 m | Show | |
407 Tennessee at St Louis
Here we find a Tennessee team off three straight losses and coming in off a bye with extra preparation time. Jake Locker has more time to ready himself off his injury and we have the superior team taking on a Rams club off a short week. This is a big step down in talent for the Titans after tangling with San Francisco, Seattle and Kansas City. In fact, the Titans have played the much tougher schedule when you back out games against opponents the opposition has produced a .630 winning percentage. Now with an extra week of rest and off a poor streak before the break we are looking for a big game out of Mike Munchak and his squad. St Louis is sure to have a letdown here after hosting a Monday Night Football game for the first time in ages. Not only did they play well, they dominated play only to come up short once again. To make matters worse the game coincided with the World Series where the average ticket price was $700. In turn the Rams were giving away food and drinks in order to get fans into the Edward Jone Dome. Kellen Clemens unfortunately is not the answer and as we have seen four times this season, this team has severe offensive problems. Four times the Rams have been held to 15 points or less as this offense simply cannot survive without a capable quarterback. The spot screams Tennessee and the Rams put up little resistance. PLAY TENNESSEE |
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10-27-13 | Dallas Cowboys v. Detroit Lions OVER 50.5 | Top | 30-31 | Win | 100 | 27 h 51 m | Show |
Dallas at Detroit
Tough scheduling spot for the Cowboys off televised affair with Denver, followed by important divisional games with Washington and Philadelphia. Dallas is now set up in good position to win this division as the offense has been outstanding. But we do have serious concerns about this defense who will be missing two key components on Sunday. This is a team allowing 5.7 yards per play while producing 5.8 ypp themselves, this against a pretty solid slate of opposition. They should have little problem moving the football against a Detroit defense that has yielded a whopping 6.3 yards per play. The league average in that regard is 5.4. The Lions permit 5.1 yards per carry so even a banged up Cowboy running game should have success. Offensively Detroit is dangerous, especially playing at home. Detroit has a bye week on deck and this game means much more to them than the Cowboys. That said Dallas is the better team but the spot screams Detroit. Rather than get too involved with the side here we will look for a shoot em out offensive affair, as we feel neither team will have much success stopping the opposition. PLAY OVER |
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10-20-13 | San Diego Chargers v. Jacksonville Jaguars +7.5 | Top | 24-6 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 36 m | Show |
400 San Diego at Jacksonville
Short week of preparation for the Chargers off a Monday Night Football victory over the Colts. That was a coming out party of sorts for the host as Indy had been a fan favorite in the early going. Now the Chargers travel cross country on a short week before a bye week on deck. It's very common for those with a vacation on deck to go through the motions the week heading up to the break. It happened to us as kids when vacation was on the horizon and it happens to NFL clubs as well, especially likely in this scenario with San Diego. This is also a team that shows a negative yards per point metric of -0.4, installed as more than a touchdown road favorite. San Diego doesn't run the ball well enough to protect a lead at just 3.7 ypr. When backing out games they are involved in the Chargers have played opponents with a .467 win percentage while the Jaguars faced the much tougher schedule at .667. Jacksonville is a much better team with Blackmon and Henne in the lineup. The last two games the Jags have only been out gained by a combined 33 total yards despite being underdogs of a combined 37 1/2 points. Jacksonville must travel to London after this contest to face the San Francisco 49ers, a very likely defeat. You can bet the players and coaches will give an extreme effort here to get this winless monkey off their backs. PLAY JACKSONVILLE |
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10-14-13 | Indianapolis Colts v. San Diego Chargers +2 | 9-19 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show | |
230 Indianapolis at San Diego
Tough spot here for the Colts who just pulled off an impressive home victory over the physical Seattle Seahawks and now must travel all the way to the west coast. Many will point out that they already won impressively in San Francisco, but that could lead to a bit of overconfidence here. Especially considering that the 4-1 Colts face off against the 6-0 Broncos next week in an early must win game for playoff home field advantage. The Colts players know having to go to Denver in January is death for a domed team, so you have to know they have one eye towards the big showdown next weekend. While the Colts are 4-1 on the season they have been out gained twice and have only out yarded the opposition by triple digits once, and that was lowly Jacksonville. And as mentioned earlier teams coming off the physical Seahawks have not performed well against the spread the following week. San Diego has played the tougher schedule and despite a 2-3 record they have been in every game except last week in Oakland, and the Chargers out gained the Raiders by 128 yards. The last two weeks San Diego has out gained the opposition by over 300 total yards. The Chargers are producing 6.1 yards per play which is among the league leaders. Playing at home in the underdog role should bring out frenzied fan support. With Denver in their division and the Colts way ahead of them for wild card consideration, this is a must win contest for the host. The Colts will no doubt get their points but this Chargers team has played much better than their current record. Indy on the other hand has been very fortunate. PLAY SAN DIEGO |
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10-13-13 | New Orleans Saints v. New England Patriots -1 | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 53 h 51 m | Show | |
226 New Orleans at New England
The Saints have been extremely impressive this season, especially at home, but we're not buying into their road record. New Orleans has played well away from home when facing dome teams and lower echelon competition, but this is a game we're not sure they can handle. The Saints struggled in a two point win at Tampa Bay and were out gained last week at Chicago. Despite a 4-1 record on the season the Patriots simply have not played well. They have been out gained in 3 of 5 games this season. But some key players are starting to return to this offense and the longer the new players play together the better this scoring unit will be. Defensively the Pats have done a fine job this season, holding the opposition to just 5.1 yards per play. New England is holding opposing signal callers to a quarterback rating of 66.2. While they have yet to face a signal caller as effective as Drew Brees, the defense has the tools to contain him. We expect this line to go to the key number of 3 by game time, so lets get this one out now in anticipation of the line move. PLAY NEW ENGLAND |
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10-13-13 | Pittsburgh Steelers +3 v. NY Jets | 19-6 | Win | 100 | 50 h 39 m | Show | |
215 Pittsburgh at New York Jets
This selection is simply based on what history has shown to be a very profitable situation. Winless teams coming off a bye have been an outstanding subset. Considering that the Steelers have a veteran coaching staff along with proven winners, this should increase the likelihood of a Pittsburgh cover. The Jets looked terrific on Monday Night Football against Atlanta, and we all know when a team looks good on national television they are overvalued by the general public the next week. Just a week ago the lookahead line on this game has the Steelers favored in the 2 1/2 point range. So based off a good Jets showing against what it's turning out to be a struggling Falcons team, the line moved upwards of 4 points. We're not buying the line move. Sure the Steelers have been terrible offensively this year, but even the poor offensive coordinator had to have made some adjustments with the extra week off. The Jets are still a team with a rookie quarterback going against this Pittsburgh defense. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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10-06-13 | San Diego Chargers v. Oakland Raiders +5 | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 52 h 6 m | Show | |
San Diego at Oakland
Can't trust the Chargers here in the road favorite role as they have been out gained by over 100 yards on the season despite a 2-2 record. This is a team that has been very fortunate in key stretches of games, converting 50% of third down plays and 100% on fourth down. Despite a 71% completion rate San Diego is only slightly above league average in yards per pass completion. The San Diego defense is surrendering 435 1/2 yards per game and 65% completions themselves. This is not a team we want any part of laying points. In fact, this is the first time all season the Chargers have been favored. Terrelle Pryor is back under center for Oakland, while Darren McFadden will likely miss the game. But considering the oft-injured running back only surpassed the century yard mark three times last year, his being out of the lineup results in a better number for Raider backers. This is the third home game in four weeks for Oakland, while the Chargers have played in a different city each weekend. The Raiders passing game has roughly league average numbers while the rushing attack is producing 5.0 yards per contest, well above the league average. The dog in this series has cashed eight straight and we expect that trend to continue. PLAY OAKLAND |
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10-06-13 | New Orleans Saints v. Chicago Bears +1.5 | 26-18 | Loss | -110 | 42 h 37 m | Show | |
New Orleans at Chicago
Short week for the Saints who beat up on previously undefeated Miami monday night. New Orleans is 5-4 ATS after playing on Monday Night Football, but all but two of those games were played in the Superdome. This team hasn't had a winning road spread mark since 2008 and they needed a late rally at Tampa Bay earlier this season to gain the outright victory. The Saint passing attack remains very efficient but the running game is definitely a concern producing just 3.4 yards per carry. While the defense hasn't given up many points thus far they have faced Atlanta, Tampa Bay, Arizona and Miami, teams who have underperformed on the season offensively. Defensive injuries haven't exposed this stop unit yet, but we expect that to change on Sunday. The improved offensive line and quick release from Cutler is keeping him healthy and upright this season, something that hasn't happened much in the past. The running attack should have a field day against this Saints stop unit that permits 5.5 yards per carry. We know Chicago has the ability to score on defense but Drew Brees won't make that easy to accomplish. Still, this Saints offense is better suited for the dome. PLAY CHICAGO |
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10-06-13 | Detroit Lions v. Green Bay Packers OVER 53 | Top | 9-22 | Loss | -110 | 42 h 42 m | Show |
Detroit at Green Bay
The Lions are averaging 30.5 points per game and it should be much higher. In watching this team we continue to see missed opportunities on the offensive end turning likely touchdowns into field goal attempts. Even though last weeks game against the Bears surpassed the posted total, it should have done so much quicker. This is a team averaging and allowing over 400 yards per contest. Considering they faced the struggling offenses of Minnesota, Arizona and Washington is especially telling. We saw how easily Jay Cutler moved the ball on them last week early on when the contest was still in question, that's likely to be the case here against the explosive Packers. The league average in points per play is .35. Green Bay and Detroit both average .40 both offensively and defensively. Green Bay is running the ball very well this year which was its problem in the past. The Pack should have great success on the ground against this very giving Detroit stop unit. Green Bay is off a heartbreaking loss and with a bye week they had another full week to stew. The Packers had that game against Cincinnati in the bag and then rested on their laurels, that's not going to be the case here. If Green Bay has the lead they will continue to pour it on, and considering Detroit hasn't won here in eons, that's likely to be the case. PLAY OVER |
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09-30-13 | Miami Dolphins v. New Orleans Saints -6.5 | Top | 17-38 | Win | 100 | 128 h 56 m | Show |
226 Miami v New Orleans
Both teams enter this contest at 3-0 but the Dolphins have been doing it with mirrors. This is a team that has been out gained in all three games yet ended the contests ahead on the scorecard. Miami hasn't run the football effectively and the offensive line is having a hard time keeping the quarterback upright. The Dolphins are averaging just 13.1 yards per point while the league average is 19.5, that tells us they have been taking advantage of excellent field position. The Dolphin defense is permitting 4.7 yards per rush which is well above the 4.1 league average. The Saints have now cashed 10 straight regular season home games with Sean Payton as head coach. They were a perfect 8-0 ATS in 2011 and have covered the spread in both home games this year by a combined 19 1/2 points. New Orleans has also cashed eight straight in the Superdome when facing opponents outside its division. New Orleans has a huge home field advantage when taking on opponents who have not experienced the noise of the New Orleans fans. That is sure to be magnified here under the Monday Night Football lights. The Saints are better than league average defensively in a lll the key metrics, as the change at defensive coordinator is doing wonders. New Orleans has a huge offensive edge, major home field edge and are at least equal statistically defensively. This number short of a touchdown is an easy choice. PLAY NEW ORLEANS |
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09-29-13 | New England Patriots v. Atlanta Falcons -1 | 30-23 | Loss | -116 | 57 h 34 m | Show | |
224 New England v Atlanta
The Patriots have a passer rating in the lower half of the league. The running game is average at best and overall this offense is producing 4.5 yards per play, well below the league average of 5.4. This is not your fathers Patriot scoring unit. While reinforcements are on the way we've seen enough of this offense to know the days of consecutive 30 point affairs are long in the past. Defensively the Pats have been solid against the pass but they did face two rookie quarterbacks and another signal caller who has since been benched. New England will finally be facing a veteran quality signal caller. Atlanta has a 0.6 yards per play season advantage over New England. Ryan's QB rating is one of the best in the league. While Atlanta has suffered some key injuries they remain a much higher quality scoring unit that the Pats right now. Atlanta sits at 1-2 on the year but they have played a much tougher schedule. When backing out the games against the Falcons, Atlanta opponents are performing at an .833 winning clip. It's going to be a loud and raucous crowd on Sunday night when the famed Patriots come to town for a rare appearance. Matt Ryan has been superb in his career at home and with the line under a field goal all we likely need is a straight up Atlanta victory. That's been a given in this building the past few years. PLAY ATLANTA |
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09-29-13 | Washington Redskins v. Oakland Raiders +4 | 24-14 | Loss | -115 | 52 h 38 m | Show | |
220 Washington v Oakland
How bad have the Washington Redskins been this season? Not only are they 0-3 on the year but when you back out the wins over Washington their opponents are posting a minuscule .167 winning percentage. Washington has been out gained in every contest and have come up short to the spread by 27.5 points in just three games this season. Opponents are throwing all over this Redskin defense to the tune of 333 yards per contest and an opposing quarterback rating of 107.6. Oakland is playing on a short week having faced the Broncos monday night, but they have been a pleasant surprise to backers this season. The Raiders are averaging 6.1 yards per play on offense which is well above league average. The running game is averaging a whopping 5.3 yards per carry. Oakland should find quality success against this very giving Washington defense. Mike Shanahan has always fared well against the Raiders but this is a long way from home for the Skins. At 0-3 many will feel that it's a must win game for Washington, but teams in that situation are there for a reason. The Skins right now are not a good football team and they don't deserve to be a favorite on the road in this price range. PLAY OAKLAND |
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09-29-13 | NY Jets +4 v. Tennessee Titans | Top | 13-38 | Loss | -115 | 51 h 30 m | Show |
215 NY Jets v Tennessee
We've been impressed with the New York Jets in the early going as they have out gained each and every opponent by at least 50 yards or better. The passing game which was considered to be a major weakness entering the year is about league average in yards per game but well above the average in yards per pass completion. The running game has also been solid which makes this offense very well balanced. The Jets are averaging 5.3 yards per play while allowing only 4.1 which is one of the better marks in the league. A problem for New York has been turnovers but overall we have to say this New York squad has outplayed preseason expectations. While the Jets have remained an under the radar squad the Titans are being promoted a bit more than they deserve. This is a team that allows more yards per play than they produce and have taken advantage of a plus 5 turnover margin. When backing out games against Tennessee the Titans opponents are winning just 1/3 of their games. Tennessee is below league average virtually in all offensive categories and the passing game has been especially troublesome. The Jets 14-10 loss to the Titans last year put them on an 0-3 spiral to finish the season. In that game they had a minus 5 turnover disadvantage and still played Tennessee tough. Jake Locker and the Titans have yet to turn the ball over this season and we know that they cannot remain that fortunate. We expect New York to take this to the wire and an outright victory is likely in the cards. PLAY NEW YORK JETS |
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09-22-13 | Buffalo Bills v. NY Jets UNDER 39 | Top | 20-27 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 6 m | Show |
Buffalo v NY Jets
Former Jets Defensive Coordinator Mike Pettine is now at Buffalo and he is very familiar with this New York offensive personnel. Bills Head Coach Marrone completely shut down Geno Smith in two games as the coach at Syracuse. He did so by blitzing often and making him uncomfortable in the pocket. The Bills are only 2-13 SU on the road and despite the late game heroics against Carolina we don't trust a rookie QB to win away from home. The Jets have extra prep time after facing New England on Thursday and they have fared well as of late against the Bills. NY is allowing only 59.5 yards on the ground which puts the pressure on a rookie signal caller to make plays. Neither team has shown much of a passing game so we expect this contest to be played very close to the vest. PLAY UNDER |
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09-22-13 | Green Bay Packers v. Cincinnati Bengals OVER 48.5 | 30-34 | Win | 100 | 49 h 55 m | Show | |
Green Bay v Cincinnati
Key Packers running back Lacy was injured last week which points to more of an emphasis in the passing game for the Packers. They have plenty of weapons to exploit a Cincinnati defense that rarely plays this talented a unit in the AFC Central. Green Bay is outperforming league average offenses by over 10 points and 125 yards per game. They sit at a whopping 7.5 yards per play, doing so against San Francisco and Washington, two playoff teams from a year ago. The Bengals have faced better defenses than what they will see on Sunday, as Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Cleveland are a step above the Packers defensively right now. Although this Green Bay stop unit is better than a year ago and could be pretty formidable by the end of the season. Cincinnati is in a divisional sandwich game with Pittsburgh Monday night and Cleveland on deck. Don't know how much quality preparation they can do against this Packer offense on a short week. PLAY OVER |
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09-22-13 | NY Giants v. Carolina Panthers | Top | 0-38 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 7 m | Show |
NY Giants v Carolina
It's all come down to turnovers for the Giants who have coughed it up a whopping 10 times in the first two games. Without those turnovers we may look at this New York team in a different light. While the running game could be to blame the Giants haven't been producing many hall of fame caliber runners the last decade. Still with a veteran quarterback in Eli Manning we have a solid edge behind center in this contest. We expect another big offensive performance from the Giants here as the Carolina secondary is a weakness. Opponents are completing 70% of their passes against the Panthers. Carolina, like Pittsburgh is struggling under new offenses. The coaching staff is trying to make Cam Newton a pocket passer. While it likely will extend his career the results have been less than desirable. Newton is better in the open field where he can generate offense by freelancing. The Panthers are passing for just 150 yards per contest which is over 100 yards less than the league average. 0-2 teams playing at home in week 3 have been a money burner over the years as the public thinks they are in a must win situation. In a battle of winless clubs we will back the visitor who has clear edges offensively if they can just take care of the football. PLAY NEW YORK GIANTS |
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09-15-13 | Jacksonville Jaguars +6 v. Oakland Raiders | 9-19 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 37 m | Show | |
217 Jacksonville at Oakland
The Jaguars laid an egg last week against the Chiefs, failing to dent the scoreboard offensively. QB Gabbert re-injured himself and Chad Henne will get the start. Henne took the majority of snaps last year when these two met in a 26-23 non-covering overtime win for the Raiders. While the Jaguars are a bad football team we're not sure the Raiders are much better. Especially when laying points. Oakland is a very poor favorite failing to post a winning spread mark in that role going back over a decade. Now 10-28 ATS giving points the past ten years. It was clear with only 30 passes attempted last year that Indy did not give much thought to Pryer behind center. The former Buckeye proved that he had the wheels but his passing ability is still highly questionable. Now with a full game of film the Jaguars should be much better prepared than the Colts. Teams who lose by 21 or more points the previous week and are installed as road underdogs do very well against the number. For a team that won just twice all season a year ago this is a must win for Jacksonville. Despite such a bad season the Jaguars still posted a 5-3 spread mark as road underdogs. With a trip to Seattle on deck the visitor will go all out in this one. Oakland in the meantime face long standing rival Denver next week on Monday Night Football, that's their statement game. PLAY JACKSONVILLE |
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09-15-13 | Denver Broncos v. NY Giants +5 | 41-23 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 25 m | Show | |
220 Denver at NY Giants
The Broncos blew away the defending Super Bowl Champions last Thursday with Manning throwing 7 touchdown passes. Give them the championship trophy now! Oh you say it's just one game not a full season? That's exactly our point. It's just a single game. Keep in mind Baltimore lost to the Eagles last year and were beaten by 30 against Houston. Every team has good days and bad days and the Broncos clearly had a great day last week hosting the Ravens. Now Denver must travel to play a non-conference game sandwiched between playoff revenge and a divisional game on Monday Night Football. The Broncos are a very talented team but if you are playing Denver this week you are laying a high tariff. The Giants turned the ball over six times last week against the Cowboys and still had a chance to win the game outright on the final drive. Teams that have such a negative turnover margin are not supposed to be in that position. New York went 6-2 SU at home last year with wins over Washington, Green Bay and New Orleans. They have a habit of playing well here in big games. At 4-2 ATS since 2007 as a home underdog and 8-2-1 catching points overall we think the Giants have enough to surprise the Broncos here. With trips to improved Carolina and Kansas City on deck this is a must win early season game for the Giants. Keep in mind New York outscored the opposition by 5.3 ppg a year ago despite playing in a very tough division. Denver will put up their points against a banged up Giants defense, but Eli and company have a solid scoring unit of their own. PLAY NY GIANTS |
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09-15-13 | Minnesota Vikings v. Chicago Bears -5.5 | 30-31 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 25 m | Show | |
212 Minnesota v Chicago
Bettors were lining up in the preseason to bet these Vikings under their season win total, and in the opener we saw exactly why. This is a team that posted a 10-6 record last year despite outscoring the opposition by just 1.9 points per game. They were 5-1 straight up in games decided by 7 points or less. This was a very fortunate team last year and they were extremely fortunate to even be in the game last week against the Lions. Minnesota was only competitive on the scoreboard because they were playing the bungling Lions. Detroit completely outplayed Minnesota in that game but did what the Lions do, make boneheaded mistakes. Two touchdowns called back, numerous key penalties and low and behind the Lions struggled to put away the less talented Vikings. That won't be the case this week as unlike the Lions the Bears know how to take advantage of opportunities. They led the league in takeaways last year and forced another three turnovers last week. Minnesota has not fared well in this building losing 9 of their last 10 visits. The last three trips to Soldier Field resulted in defeats by 18, 29 and 14 points. Over the past five seasons Minnesota is 1-9 ATS on the division road when playing outdoors. Being a domed team they play well in Detroit but at Chicago and Green Bay they have been a very giving visitor. Chicago played a much tougher opponent last week vs Cincinnati and they pulled out the victory. The Vikings are a major step down from the Bengals. PLAY CHICAGO |
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09-12-13 | NY Jets v. New England Patriots UNDER 44 | 10-13 | Win | 100 | 31 h 38 m | Show | |
NY Jets v New England
One of our favorite early week trends takes place when the Jets and Patriots tangle on Thursday. When the home team is favored on Thursdays the game has gone under 51 of 81 occurrences. It's even better when the home team is a big favorite. It makes a great deal of sense to us as the teams have less time to put in a game plan on the short week, even more of a hinderance to the road team who must travel. In fact, Tom Brady said that they wouldn't be spending a great deal of time game planning offensively because of the short turnaround. These two teams know each other very well and with the projected inefficiencies of the Jets offense along with a battered and bruised New England scoring unit, we can see this game staying under the posted total. New England's offense isn't the same this year with a questionable receiving corps, and now three key skill position players will likely miss this game. We expect this line to continue to drop so lock in the current number as soon as possible. PLAY UNDER |
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09-08-13 | Arizona Cardinals +4.5 v. St. Louis Rams | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 26 h 30 m | Show | |
473 Arizona v St Louis
The Cardinals shocked the sports world a year ago by opening the season with victories over three highly acclaimed teams, Seattle, New England and Philadelphia. Through the first six games of the year Arizona allowed just 118 points, including two contests that went to overtime. We feel the defense the Cards showed early last season will return in 2013. Arizona has held St Louis to 20 points or less in 9 of the last 10 meetings. In five meetings in St Louis the Rams have averaged just 15.2 ppg. Getting the key numbers of 3 and 4 in what we expect to be a low scoring contest is great value. The season betting markets slightly favor the Rams but we aren't sure those numbers are warranted. Arizona has won 8 or more games in 4 of the last 6 seasons and off a 5-11 campaign we feel the Cardinals are in for a solid year. The addition of Carson Palmer even at his advanced age is a huge upgrade over Kolb and Skelton. St Louis has posted just one spread winning season at home in the last 9 years, and that was just a 5-3 mark in 2010. The home field edge in this building is virtually nonexistent, especially since the team hasn't produced a winning overall record since 2003. The Rams have won 3 or less games in 4 of the last 6 years. The team make a solid five game jump a season ago to 7-8-1 on the season. If you've followed the NFL long enough you know it's very tough to make a jump in wins two years in a row. We like this Rams defense but we still have serious concerns about its scoring ability. St Louis hasn't produced 19 points per game in six straight years, we can't see them scoring enough here to distance themselves from the Cards. PLAY ARIZONA |
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09-08-13 | Minnesota Vikings +4.5 v. Detroit Lions | 24-34 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 9 m | Show | |
469 Minnesota v Detroit
There has been a highly publicized opening week trend out there going against teams who made the playoffs last year against non-playoff participants. The basic reason is that those teams are overrated in the public eye and a playoff team from one year is not guaranteed to return the previous season. But that has already been factored into this line as the vast majority feel Minnesota will take a step back this year. So from our perspective it's the Vikings who are the underrated team in this matchup. We always like to write down the current lines before the preseason starts and track the line movements. The Lions opened up as a 3 1/2 point favorite in this contest, now they are sitting in the 5 to 5 1/2 point range. What has happened in the preseason to make the Lions two points better in the betting markets? In our opinion not a single thing. We still have the overhyped Lions who continue to make the same costly mistakes in which they've made over the past few seasons. Overrated and undisciplined is not qualities we want in backing a divisional favorite. Minnesota is getting no love this offseason as the season win number has been bet slightly down, but that has now moved Minnesota into the bargain territory. They aren't nearly as flashy offensively as the Lions but they get the job done. Also the Vikings have played very well in Detroit winning outright and cashing 3 of the last 5 meetings. Since both teams play in a dome the Lions don't have the usual home field edge they have against non-dome squads. At 3-6-1 as a divisional home favorite the past decade the Lions have not proven themselves to be worthy in this role. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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09-08-13 | Seattle Seahawks v. Carolina Panthers +4.5 | 12-7 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 7 m | Show | |
468 Seattle v Carolina
The Seahawks are a bigger favorite in this game than in any other road contest since 2009. The same Seattle organization that has posted just one winning season spread mark on the road since 2005. Because of its location the Seahawks traditionally have the worst road travel schedule in the league, and here we find them traveling cross country to the eastern time zone in an early start game. Seattle also has their biggest game of the season on deck when they host San Francisco on Sunday Night Football. Seattle is the hot team right now as some trusted sources have them ranked as the best team in the league. We can't argue that the Seahawks are undeserving, but keep in mind that a year ago they were home underdogs in their first three home games of the season. Seattle is 5-11 ATS as a road favorite since 2006 and are a bit overrated in the betting markets right now. We see plenty to like with the Panthers who were pounded up in the season win markets. Carolina has made a steady climb from 2 wins in 2010 to 6 and 7 victories the last two seasons. This is a team on the rise that is being overshadowed here by a very public Seattle squad. While the Seahawks were given deserved credit for a strong late season run a year ago, the Panthers almost mirrored that success. Carolina won and covered 5 of its last 6 games including victories against Atlanta and at New Orleans. With only a non-conference trip to Buffalo on deck the Panthers do not have the lookahead situation the Seahawks have. With this game sitting above the key number of 3 we see strong value in backing the home dog here. PLAY CAROLINA |
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02-03-13 | Baltimore Ravens +4 v. San Francisco 49ers | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 55 h 22 m | Show | |
Baltimore & San Francisco
Since this game has been talked about in length we will keep this analysis short and sweet. Baltimore is getting healthy defensively and with two weeks to prepare they should have counter measures installed against the running San Francisco signal caller. We have concerns about how this 49er defense has been picked apart in the passing game as of late. While there are better ways to make money on this game we will use an opinion on Baltimore at +4 or better. PLAY BALTIMORE In regards to Props here are some we have already played. If you can find these within 20 cents of what we played we would recommend you follow. Flacco throws 1st interception before Kappernick -110 Ed Reed Under 4 tackles -100 Vernon Davis Over 3 receptions -100 Moss receiving yards -5 1/2 over Kobe points -115 (3 Units) Flacco Completions Over 20 1/2 -125 Boldin Over 64 1/2 receiving yards -115 Ravens players to score- Under 3 1/2 -125 (2 Units) Total TDs Under 5 1/2 -100 Total QB Sacks Under 4 1/2 -120 No Score in 1st 7 Minutes +145 Here are some props we will play once the public gets involved and brings the juice down Will there be a successful 2 point conversion - No Will there be a missed extra point - No Will there be overtime - No Will there be a safety - No Will the game be decided by exactly 3 points- No |
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01-20-13 | Baltimore Ravens v. New England Patriots OVER 51 | 28-13 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 2 m | Show | |
303 Baltimore at New England
Only 3 times in 26 games have the Ravens lost on the road by double digits. This is a team that matches up pretty well offensively against this New England stop unit. The last four regular season meetings have been decided by 1, 3, 6 and 3 points. Last years playoff game was a 1 point differential. Baltimore didn't face too many quality offenses but when it did the games were high scoring. New England totaled 61 in the first meeting, Houston totaled 56, Washington finished at 59, Denver was 51, the NY Giants totaled 47 and last weeks game against Denver was another shootout. Baltimore played the fourth longest game in NFL history last week which favors the Patriots. New England like Denver will use a hurry up offense to keep Baltimore from making changes defensively. The Ravens have suffered through defensive injuries right now and the Patriots are smart enough to limit changes as they look to wear out this aging stop unit. PLAY OVER Opinion New England Team Points Over |
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01-20-13 | San Francisco 49ers v. Atlanta Falcons UNDER 49.5 | 28-24 | Loss | -110 | 45 h 44 m | Show | |
302 San Francisco at Atlanta
The 49ers must travel cross country off a dominating win, especially offensively as the team had a breakout performance. But in eight road games this season the 49ers never surpassed 383 total yards of offense. This is a team that performed far better offensively at home than on the road. Atlanta is 33-7 SU the last five seasons at home (Includes lay down game against Tampa in the season finale). Only 3 of those 40 games the Falcons lost by more than 4 points. The coaching staff has already said it is going to a zone defense to keep Kapernick from going crazy running the football. The 49er defense is the best unit on the field and defense travels better than offense. Therefore we expect San Francisco to keep this Atlanta team in check. Based on last week this total is very much inflated. San Francisco didn't play a game with this high a total all season. Atlanta did play games with high totals but opponents in those games all had severe defensive questions: Washington, Oakland, New Orleans and Tampa Bay. PLAY UNDER Opinion Atlanta +3 1st Half |
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01-12-13 | Baltimore Ravens v. Denver Broncos -9 | 38-35 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 28 m | Show | |
110 Baltimore at Denver
We haven't been impressed by this Baltimore team at all this season, and when it plays on the road the offense stagnates. Joe Flacco has a 15 to 5 TD to INT ratio at home averaging 8.3 yppa. On the road those numbers drop to 7 to 5 TD to INT ratio with a 5.9 yppa. The defense is aging and because of the hurry up offense used at times the defensive problems were magnetized. Denver is better on both sides of the ball. There is a huge discrepancy at the quarterback position and the running game is comparable. Defensively Denver has proven to be superior to the Ravens in just about every phase. With Baltimore having to play last week and then travel into altitude the scheduling advantage is clearly with the rested host. The first time these two met Denver dominated. We expect more of the same. PLAY DENVER |
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01-06-13 | Indianapolis Colts v. Baltimore Ravens -7 | 9-24 | Win | 100 | 4 h 30 m | Show | |
106 Indianapolis at Baltimore
Indy is 4-4 SU on the road but the wins came against Tennessee in overtime, Jacksonville, Detroit and Kansas City. That's three of the worst teams in the league along with the most undisciplined. The Colts are 4-5 ATS in games they lost the turnover battle which is actually quite impressive, but it's telling about how fortunate Indianapolis his been. Visiting playoff teams they lost at New England by 35 and Houston by 12, also lost at Chicago who had a winning record by 22 points. That's the only three teams they played on the road that finished with a winning record. The Colts were 9-1 SU in games decided by a touchdown or less. They have been able to win close games which we know from many years of match study is an anomaly. Once Atlanta posted a similar 7-0 mark in games decided by a touchdown or less and now they are considered the third best team in the NFC. The last two weeks the Ravens held the Giants and Bengals to just 186 and 189 total yards. Ray Lewis returning should be an emotional lift for the Ravens but we doubt he will have any significant impact with his play. Still, we saw how valuable the home field has been in the playoffs and the Colts are a totally different team on the road. Great season for Indy ends here. PLAY BALTIMORE |
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01-05-13 | Minnesota Vikings v. Green Bay Packers -7.5 | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 11 h 53 m | Show | |
104 Minnesota at Green Bay
Four straight wins and covers for the Vikings who have taken advantage of positive turnover margins. This is the very first playoff game for Leslie Frazier. On the road when not in a dome: Lost by 12 at Washington, lost by 10 at Seattle, lost by 18 at Chicago, lost by 9 at Green Bay, won by 17 at Houston. The Packers are 28-4 straight up at home but lost to the NY Giants here in the playoffs a year ago. Rodgers produced 8.3 and 8.1 yppa against Minnesota this season with 405 and 435 total yards of offense. He really had his way against this Minnesota defense in the second half last week. Much more playoff experience for Green Bay who fully expected to be in the postseason entering the year while Minnesota was coming off a 3-13 season. PLAY GREEN BAY |
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12-30-12 | NY Jets v. Buffalo Bills -3 | 9-28 | Win | 100 | 28 h 55 m | Show | |
302 NY Jets at Buffalo
The Jets started the season with very realistic playoff optimism after eight wins or more in four straight seasons. But now locked in with a losing record and a season full of controversy we can't see how the Jets show up here. They already beat the Bills 48-28 in the season opener after catching all kinds of flack in the preseason. They were highly motivated then but this game is a totally different situation. With Sanchez back behind center any hope for improvement is moot. Buffalo has dropped six straight in this series and according to everything we have read the Bills want this victory badly. Unlike New York, Buffalo is off three straight seasons of six wins or less. They didn't have serious playoff hopes entering the season. This game means much more to the host and the number is very reasonable. PLAY BUFFALO |
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12-30-12 | Houston Texans v. Indianapolis Colts +7 | 16-28 | Win | 100 | 28 h 53 m | Show | |
310 Houston at Indianapolis
Here is a situation we simply love in the final week of the season. Last week the lookahead line at a popular Vegas casino was Indianapolis -3. Now we find the Texans laying a touchdown simply because of need. Houston is already in the playoffs but they need a victory here to insure home field throughout the playoffs. So you could have bet Houston last week at 9 1/2 to 10 points better than the current line. I guess the Texans must have looked a lot better to others than they did to us in a 23-6 home loss to the Vikings. Just because the game on the surface looks to be more important to the Texans, we're not so sure Indy is going to lay down here. Coach Pagano is back this week and that's a huge emotional edge for the host. Indy has also been terrific at home this season with a 6-1 spread mark. They have also fared very well hosting Houston with 10 straight outright home victories. Houston will be the tight team here while the Colts will play free and easy. They played Houston much tougher than the 29-17 loss two weeks ago on the road. They win this one outright. PLAY INDIANAPOLIS |
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12-30-12 | Carolina Panthers +5 v. New Orleans Saints | 44-38 | Win | 100 | 28 h 52 m | Show | |
323 Carolina at New Orleans
The Panthers have had little problem playing in the Superdome cashing 10 of the last 11 meetings. They beat the Saints earlier this season 35-27 and Carolina is playing with a great amount of confidence right now. Winning three straight and 4 of 5 with the only loss being the highly emotional game in Kansas City after the murder suicide. A victory here and the Panthers better their 6-10 record from a season ago. New Orleans can get to .500 with a victory here but after 13, 11 and 13 win seasons is that even a goal? This was a team who entered the year with something to prove after the bounty gate suspensions. But now they are just playing out the schedule off a very disappointing year. New Orleans was dominant at home last season with a perfect 9-0 record at home including the playoffs. But this year the Saints have already lost here to Washington, Kansas City and San Francisco. Off a highly emotional overtime win in Dallas the Saints may run out of gas here on Sunday. PLAY CAROLINA |
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12-23-12 | NY Giants -1 v. Baltimore Ravens | 14-33 | Loss | -118 | 27 h 51 m | Show | |
121 NY Giants at Baltimore
Teams off a 30 or more point loss are an excellent point spread proposition. Teams after being shutout are also great against the spread. Defending Super Bowl Champions who lose 34-0 are the type of teams we will look to back the next time out. New York has been a money maker on the road since 2006 and after scoring just 29 combined points the last three road games we look for a big game from this Giants offense. Baltimore has struggled defensively this season allowing 30 to New England, 29 to Dallas, 43 to Houston, 31 to Washington and 34 last week to Denver. All those teams like this weeks opponent are in playoff contention. Baltimore has looked good defensively against Cleveland, Kansas City and San Diego but they have struggled when stepping up in class. Offensively the Ravens have been held to 17, 28, 20, 13 and 13 points in regulation the past five games. PLAY NY GIANTS |
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12-23-12 | Oakland Raiders v. Carolina Panthers -8.5 | 6-17 | Win | 100 | 23 h 29 m | Show | |
106 Oakland at Carolina
The last five games Oakland managed 17 total points or less as the offense continues to struggle. They have been outscored the past six weeks 173-92 even off a 15-0 shutout of the Chiefs. Oakland is on a 1-6 spread run and we can't see them getting up to travel cross country for a non-conference game. Now that Cam Newton has regained his confidence this Carolina offense is humming with 112 points the last four games. In 4 of the last 5 games Newton averaged over 8 yppa which is outstanding. Carolina hasn't lost a turnover battle in eight weeks as they continue to give themselves chances to win. PLAY CAROLINA |
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12-23-12 | Buffalo Bills v. Miami Dolphins UNDER 41.5 | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 23 h 28 m | Show | |
108 Buffalo at Miami
Buffalo should be fired up defensively after allowing a whopping 50 points last week in Toronto. The defense had permitted just 15, 18, 20 and 14 points the previous four games. During that time they also allowed just 285, 236, 312 and 184 total yards. Buffalo offensively has been held to 19 points or less in 5 of 7 games and the last time these two met just 33 points were scored. In fact, 4 of the last 5 games in this series have stayed under the posted total. Miami has now gone seven straight games of scoring 24 points or less, four times being held to 16 or fewer. Defensively Miami has held six straight opponents to 321 total yards or less. Overall 6 of the last 7 home games for Miami have seen total points scored of 40 or less. PLAY UNDER |
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12-16-12 | Seattle Seahawks v. Buffalo Bills +6 | 50-17 | Loss | -110 | 39 h 54 m | Show | |
322 Seattle at Buffalo
The Seahawks have a tremendous home field edge but they are not very profitable away from home. Just 3-4 ATS on the road this year and 29-46-4 since 2003. Seattle has been installed three times as road favorites this year losing straight up at Arizona, losing outright at St Louis and losing again to Miami. The Seahawks haven't covered as a road favorite since 2009. Off an overtime win in Chicago and a 58-0 thrashing of divisional rival Arizona, the Seahawks are bound to have a letdown here. With the biggest two games of the season on deck against San Francisco and the upstart St Louis Rams you can bet Seattle won't be fully focused here. This game is not an actual home game for Buffalo as they play this game across the border in Toronto. But the crowd will be pro Bills here despite the country change. While many will point to the inconsistent Buffalo offense the Bills stop unit gets better by the week. Heading into the season much was expected out of this defense and the Bills were smoked on a regular basis. But the last four weeks its come together for Buffalo as they have permitted just 15, 18, 20 and 14 points. Seattle's offense isn't strong enough to distance themselves from Buffalo here and the Seahawks have shown no reason to trust them in the road favorite roll. PLAY BUFFALO |
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12-16-12 | Detroit Lions v. Arizona Cardinals +6.5 | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 39 h 53 m | Show | |
323 Detroit at Arizona
Detroit is up there as one of the most disappointing teams in the league this season. The Lions entered the year with high expectations on the heels of a 10-6 season a year ago. But now this team has nothing to play for after losing a must win game last week at Green Bay. The players talked about being the team that broke the long streak of winning in Green Bay, and they had a 14-0 lead and the ball. But Detroit imploded like they have so often this season and lost 27-20 to their hated rival on Sunday Night Football. Now they travel to play the lowly Cardinals knowing they host Atlanta in a nationally televised game next Saturday before ending the season with divisional rival Chicago revenge. Detroit has a 2-7-2 spread mark as road favorites in the last 11 years. Arizona is off an embarrassing loss Sunday at Seattle, a 58-0 pasting in which the coach apologized to the Arizona fans. Now back home in front of their own crowd you know this team will go all out for a victory. In the pros players don't quit. With non-guaranteed contracts these Cardinal players are playing for their future, whether here or somewhere else next year. Historically teams who lose by 20 or more are an excellent point spread proposition the following game. The higher the loss margin the better the winning percentage. This is a team on a mission this week and the public will be running to the window to back the well known Lions. That's the time to step in and take the tremendous value on the host. PLAY ARIZONA |
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12-16-12 | Minnesota Vikings v. St. Louis Rams UNDER 39 | 36-22 | Loss | -105 | 36 h 46 m | Show | |
310 Minnesota at St Louis
Last week the Vikings managed just 21 points against the Bears with two of those three touchdowns provided by the defense. The prior two weeks Minnesota put up 14 at Green Bay and 10 at Chicago. In four of the last seven games the Vikings have failed to reach 290 total yards. Peterson is having an incredible year but the Rams hold the opposition to just 4.0 yards per rush. Only seven teams fare better defending the run. Ponder has put up yards per pass attempt numbers of 4.5, 4.8 and 3.3 the last three games. Only twice all season has he surpassed the league average and that was a full nine games ago. When Ponder fails to reach 6.0 yppa the under has occurred in 6 of 7 games. St Louis has scored 24 points or less in all but two games all season. In the last 11 games St Louis has been held to 20 or less nine times. Defensively this team is getting better week in and week out. The last three games the Rams have held opponents to 12, 13 and 17 points including one contest that went to overtime. The Rams have produced less than 300 yards of offense in 3 of 4 games, while the defense has gone four straight contests allowing 375 yards or less. When St Louis holds opposing signal callers to 6.0 yppa or less the games have gone under in 6 of 7 contests. PLAY UNDER |
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12-16-12 | Jacksonville Jaguars +7.5 v. Miami Dolphins | Top | 3-24 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 53 m | Show |
313 Jacksonville at Miami
The Jaguars have one of the worst home field advantages in the NFL and last week they were a 3 point underdog to the Jets. Now this week they are catching over a touchdown to another team with virtually no home field advantage. Take a look at how much better Jacksonville has played on the road this year compared to games in Everbank Field. A 26-23 overtime loss at Minnesota, a 22-17 win at playoff bound Indianapolis, a 26-23 overtime loss to Oakland (a 3 point cover), a 9 point loss at Green Bay (a 6 1/2 point cover), a 43-37 overtime loss at Houston and last time out they laid an egg at Buffalo 34-18. So just once all season has Jacksonville not been competitive on the road. Miami is 0-2 as a home favorite this year and 8-33 ATS in that role since 2003. The last nine times they have been a favorite of over 4 points the Dolphins failed to cover. In 7 of the last 9 games this season Miami has failed to reach 280 total yards of offense. It's tough to lay points in the NFL with a poor scoring unit and expecting to cover a sizable number without moving the football is highly unlikely. PLAY JACKSONVILLE |
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12-13-12 | Cincinnati Bengals v. Philadelphia Eagles UNDER 45.5 | 34-13 | Loss | -109 | 28 h 19 m | Show | |
302 Cincinnati at Philadelphia
These individual Thursday games give an advantage to the defenses. We used the under last Thursday in the Denver/Oakland game and we return with that same reasoning tonight. Because of the quick turnaround time teams can't add anything new to the playbook, which helps the defensive game plans. Cincinnati has played terrific defense as of late allowing 20, 13, 10, 6 and 13 points the last five games. The Bengals held each opponent to 318 total yards or less. Offensively they had breakout games against Kansas City and Oakland, but other than those two poor teams they have consistently failed to reach 360 yards against anyone. Nick Foles has now gone three straight games without throwing an interception. That means he isn't throwing into traffic and is going with what the defenses give him. It also means there is less of a chance for a pick six which is always a concern when you are looking for a low scoring game. This Eagles defense hasn't performed well at all this year, but considering that Philadelphia has a -19 turnover margin on the season you can't put all the blame on the stop unit. So far this season 9 of 12 individual Thursday games have stayed under the posted total. One that went over did so after just 16 points were scored with 13 minutes remaining in the game. The trend makes sense and it fits this game well. We will look for another low scoring affair here as Philadelphia shows some heart after that big emotional victory from Sunday. PLAY UNDER |
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12-09-12 | Arizona Cardinals +10 v. Seattle Seahawks | 0-58 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 26 m | Show | |
129 Arizona at Seattle
Simply put double digit road underdogs off a loss are 62.9% ATS when the game total is under 38. Current total as we write this is 35 1/2. That means when a game is expected to be very low scoring you simply cannot lay double digits in the NFL, regardless of how good or bad these teams looked the prior week. Arizona has beaten the Seahawks straight up in 6 of the last 9 meetings, including a 20-16 win in the season opener. In the three meetings the past two seasons Seattle is averaging just 295 yards per game to go along with 16.3 points per contest. They simply don't score enough to lay a sizable number to anyone. With Skelton back behind center at least the Cardinals have a quarterback with experience. In games with Kolb or Skelton starting the Cardinals never lost a turnover battle by more than one all season. That means Seattle can't depend on defensive scores to widen any margin. Seattle is in unfamiliar territory here as they haven't been favored by more than five points in any game this season. In fact, they have not been a double digit favorite since mid 2009. Seattle is coming in off back to back road games including going to overtime last week in Chicago. While we don't have an exact winning percentage on double digit favorites off an overtime win we can guess it can't be a profitable subset. There is little doubt that the Seahawks are the better team but they have not yet graduated to this lowly point spread status. PLAY ARIZONA |
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12-09-12 | Philadelphia Eagles v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers OVER 47.5 | 23-21 | Loss | -102 | 32 h 4 m | Show | |
119 Philadelphia at Tampa Bay
Nick Foles hasn't thrown an interception in either of the last two games as he is getting more and more comfortable under center for the Eagles. Despite losing big name players at the skill positions the Eagles offense has performed just as well as of late producing 22 points or better in 3 of the last 4 contests. It's the Eagle defense that has been pounded allowing 28 points or more in six straight games. Philadelphia has really been hurt in the passing game allowing 10.9, 10.3 and 12.8 yards per passing attempts the past three weeks. Tampa Bay has scored 21 points or better now in nine straight games. This has become one of the more potent offenses in the NFL. The problem for the Bucs has been a defense that has permitted 21 points or more in five straight contests, including the questionable offenses of Oakland and San Diego. With neither team concerned with the playoffs and both squads wearing down defensively we can see a late season shootout here. The last five home games for the Buccaneers averaged 52.4 points per game, we can see another 50 point effort here. PLAY OVER |
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12-09-12 | Dallas Cowboys +3 v. Cincinnati Bengals | 20-19 | Win | 107 | 32 h 2 m | Show | |
123 Dallas at Cincinnati
The Cowboys are playing much better as of late winning 3 of 4 contests. The offense which was stagnant for much of the season has produced 130 combined points the last four weeks. Dallas is 4-2 straight up on the road this year despite facing the likes of Seattle, the NY Giants, Baltimore and Atlanta. For a team with no home field advantage the Cowboys are a bargain when they hit the road. Playing the underdog in Dallas games continues to be profitable as the Cowboys play up or down to the competition. The dog is now on a 27-11 ATS run in Cowboy contests. Cincinnati has won four straight to put them back in playoff contention, but keep in mind three of those victories came against San Diego, Oakland and Kansas City. In fact, the Bengals only have two quality wins all season, over the NY Giants and Washington. Cincinnati has a quick turnaround game after this contest as they have to travel to Philadelphia for a Thursday affair. While the Eagles are not a major threat the road teams on these Thursday games have not fared well all season. Despite the playoff talk coming out of Cincinnati the Bengals know they will be sitting on the sidelines again come playoff time. They simply don't match up with the two teams ahead of them in the standings as both Pittsburgh and Baltimore have dominated them, and that's who they play the last two weeks. The only time the Bengals have been favored this year has been against Cleveland, Miami, Kansas City and Oakland. This Dallas team is far superior to any of those squads. The Bengals are 1-1-1 ATS this year as home favorites. They haven't finished a season with a winning home spread mark in any season for over a decade. Since 2002 Cincinnati is 14-28-3 ATS laying points at Paul Brown Stadium. That number doesn't get any better after this one. PLAY DALLAS |
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12-09-12 | Atlanta Falcons v. Carolina Panthers +3.5 | Top | 20-30 | Win | 100 | 32 h 14 m | Show |
118 Atlanta at Carolina
The Falcons have swept the Panthers the past 6 meetings in high scoring affairs. This is a major sandwich game for Atlanta after facing Tampa Bay and New Orleans with the Champion NY Giants on deck. Atlanta's offense hasn't been overly impressive as of late scoring just 23, 24, 23, 27 and 19 the last five contests. The 25 ppg against New Orleans in two meetings the last few weeks in concerning, as the Saints haven't stopped anyone defensively all year. While the records say this is a mismatch it all comes down to how these two have fared in close games. Atlanta is 7-0 in games decided by 7 points or less, while Carolina is 0-7. The Panthers off embarrassing loss to the Chiefs. The last three games Cam Newton has produced yppa numbers of 8.1, 10.3 and 8.1 as the Carolina passing game is finally coming around. The Panthers have a better ypp for and against by .5 yards over Atlanta. They have the better running game for and against by .8 ypr also. Carolina has faced the tougher schedule with an opponent win % of 508 as compared to Atlanta's .412. These two are much closer than the records dictate and after dropping six straight all the motivation is on the host. PLAY CAROLINA |
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12-06-12 | Denver Broncos v. Oakland Raiders UNDER 48.5 | Top | 26-13 | Win | 100 | 30 h 40 m | Show |
102 Denver at Oakland
Teams that play each other twice in a season know each other through and through. They know what plays they will call and they know what they will run out of every formation. When these teams play on a short week less if any new plays can be put into the game plan. That's exactly why just once all season has an individual Thursday Night Football game gone Over the Total when two divisional rivals go head to head. In that lone contest San Diego and Kansas City totaled 16 combined points heading into the fourth quarter, with a fumble recovery in the end zone, a 59 yard pick six and a garbage touchdown put the game Over the posted total by 3 points. That's the lone divisional game to surpass the total on these stand alone Thursday contests. Not only are these games going Under, but they are doing so by wide margins. Arizona at St Louis -20 points to go under by 17 1/2 Chicago at Green Bay -33 points to go Under by 17 1/2 Cleveland at Baltimore -39 points to go Under by 4 1/2 Indianapolis at Jacksonville -37 points to go Under by 6 1/2 Miami at Buffalo - 33 points to go Under by 13 points New Orleans at Atlanta - 36 points to go Under by 18 1/2 points Seattle at San Francisco -19 points to go Under by 18 1/2 points PLAY UNDER |
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12-02-12 | Arizona Cardinals v. NY Jets OVER 36 | 6-7 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 18 m | Show | |
Arizona at NY Jets
The Arizona defense has wilted under the pressure of this questionable Cardinal offense. Allowing 31, 23, 31, 24 and 21 points the past five games. The offense did show some signs of life last week putting up a season high 375 yards against the Rams. The Jets have dropped 4 of the last 5 games and they are relegated to sitting on the sidelines this postseason. While not technically eliminated this team knows their postseason run has ended. Defensively the Jets have permitted 49, 28, 30 and 29 points in 4 of their last 5 games, with only St Louis not reaching 28 points against this club. With both teams just playing out the string and with both defenses struggling we can easily go over the total in a game that's likely to see a defensive score along the way. PLAY OVER |
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11-29-12 | New Orleans Saints v. Atlanta Falcons -3 | Top | 13-23 | Win | 100 | 55 h 49 m | Show |
New Orleans at Atlanta
This is a cheap number considering just three weeks ago the Falcons were favored by 1 1/2 in New Orleans. The Saints own victories this year over Atlanta by 4 in a game they were out gained, San Diego by 7 in a game they were out yarded, by 15 over Philadelphia is a game they lost the yardage battle, by 7 at Tampa Bay where they were out gained, and by 21 at Oakland where they again were out gained. New Orleans has lost the yardage battle in all but two games this season. The offense has surpassed 385 yards just once the past five games. Teams who play on Sunday and travel to play on Thursday are at a major disadvantage. While these two teams know each other well the travel situation for New Orleans has to be a concern. Atlanta is looking to avenge it's only loss of the season. In fact, the Falcons have dropped four straight games to the Saints. So while many will point to the Falcons possibly going through the motions here, we feel this has to be a statement game for the host. Since that loss to the Saints in a game in which Atlanta couldn't put the ball in the end zone late, this team has won by four and single point margins. But keep in mind that the Falcons lost the turnover battle in those games by a combined margin of seven and they still found a way to win. Atlanta is one yard away from entering this game undefeated and yet the line is extremely cheap for a Thursday night host. Is it possible the 10-1 Falcons are underrated? We say a resounding yes! PLAY ATLANTA |
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11-25-12 | St. Louis Rams +1.5 v. Arizona Cardinals | 31-17 | Win | 100 | 26 h 44 m | Show | |
St Louis at Atlanta
The Rams have played better on the road than at home this season with a 3-1 spread mark away from the Edward Jones Dome. They haven't won a game since the last time these two got together in a 17-3 home win on October 4th. The Rams have shown some offensive ability this season while Arizona has really struggled to put points on the board. Defensively St Louis has been lit up by elite offenses but have held lesser scoring units down. Arizona lost last week despite an amazing +5 turnover edge. They put up a whopping 178 yards of total offense. During this six game losing streak the Cardinals have produced 19, 17, 3, 14, 16 in overtime and 3 points. This is not a team worthy of laying points. PLAY ST LOUIS |
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11-22-12 | Washington Redskins v. Dallas Cowboys -3 | 38-31 | Loss | -110 | 42 h 58 m | Show | |
106 Washington at Dallas
The Redskins looked good last week against a Philadelphia team that has thrown in the towel. But the going won't be so easy this week against a resurgent Cowboys team. The Skins have only beaten Dallas once in the last seven meetings. Dallas has been a well known poor home favorite but with the line being short they likely cover the number with an outright victory. With this game surrounded by Cleveland and two games with an already spent Philadelphia team, the Cowboys know this is the game they need to have. Dallas is the better team here in our opinion yet the line is saying these two squads are virtually equal. While the Skins travel on a short week the Cowboys remain home after surviving against the Browns. That overtime victory keeps Dallas focused here. PLAY DALLAS |
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11-19-12 | Chicago Bears v. San Francisco 49ers OVER 34.5 | 7-32 | Win | 100 | 9 h 42 m | Show | |
Chicago at San Francisco
Now that the line has dropped with the news of Smith being out for the 49ers, we go from being on the sidelines to being in action tonight. Smith isn't worth the 3 point adjustment in the line but we also don't want to lay more than a field goal. The way we will attack this game is with the total which has dropped into the 34 1/2 range. Chicago is being penalized offensively with Cutler out of the lineup. But that isn't much of an offensive drop off. The last four games with Cutler the Bears produced 249, 358, 210 and 296 total yards. You won't get any worse tonight with Campbell. Without Smith the 49ers offense becomes more dynamic as the backup can beat you through the air or with his scrambling ability. Which comes in handy against a very aggressive Chicago defense. The last four weeks San Francisco put up 341, 317, 313 and 314 total yards. Similar to the Bears situation we ask how much of an offensive drop will there be? The weather is expected to be in the mid 50's with 20% chance of rain and 7 mph winds. That won't have any affect on the game. With the total lowered because of the quarterbacks we will ride the over as we expect at least one mistake turning into a touchdown. PLAY OVER |
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11-18-12 | Indianapolis Colts v. New England Patriots OVER 54 | 24-59 | Win | 100 | 30 h 14 m | Show | |
Indianapolis at New England
The last three weeks Indy has passed for 8.5, 8.7 and 7.5 yards per pass attempt as the offense is really starting to click with Luck behind center. The defense has been very impressive as of late but they haven't faced any quality offenses. New England has permitted 400 yards or better in 5 of 9 games, those not reaching 400 yards were Tennessee, Arizona, Seattle and St Louis, all questionable offenses. New England has put up 29 points or more in all but two games this season, against defensive squads Arizona and Seattle. The weather is expected to be very good and the offenses are by far the most talented units on the field. PLAY OVER |
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11-18-12 | Arizona Cardinals +10 v. Atlanta Falcons | 19-23 | Win | 100 | 27 h 12 m | Show | |
Arizona at Atlanta
Cardinals come out of the bye week having lost five straight games. We like to play losing teams coming off a loss before the bye with an extra week to prepare. The defense which has been so good all season permitted 31 points, a season high last time out. We expect a focussed effort from the Cards here. Atlanta's undefeated bubble burst last time out against the Saints. They just played a divisional game against New Orleans and they played a Sunday Night Football contest against Dallas the previous week. The Falcons have three straight divisional games on deck, including New Orleans revenge, followed by a game against the defending Super Bowl Champion NY Giants. This is one hell of a flat spot for Atlanta. PLAY ARIZONA |
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11-18-12 | Cleveland Browns +9 v. Dallas Cowboys | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 27 h 0 m | Show | |
Cleveland at Dallas
Cleveland entered the bye week with a 2-7 record including a 25-15 home loss against the Ravens. They are well rested and haven't left home since facing the Colts on October 21st. The Browns are 5-2-1 ATS in the road dog role and the defense is starting to resemble the stop unit of a year ago. Simply put the Cowboys are a terrible home favorite. Especially laying more than a field goal. The team just doesn't distance themselves from the opposition which makes the underdog in Dallas games very profitable. Dallas faces Cleveland in a terrible scheduling spot. They faced Giants revenge, then played Atlanta on Sunday Night Football, followed by the must win game last week against the Eagles. Next Thursday on Thanksgiving they play the Redskins, followed by a Sunday Night Football divisional rematch against the Eagles. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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11-11-12 | Houston Texans v. Chicago Bears UNDER 41 | 13-6 | Win | 100 | 54 h 33 m | Show | |
238 Houston at Chicago
The Texans haven't played on the road in five weeks. In their only other game against the NFC they were blown out at home against Green Bay. Defensively the Texans have held all but two opponents to 325 yards or less. We have serious concerns about Matt Schaub and his ability to avoid this Chicago pressure. Against Green Bay earlier this year he made bad decisions under duress. Chicago has had a +4 turnover margin in 4 of 8 games this year as this is becoming one of the most dominating defenses in recent memory. Nobody has scored more than 23 points against the Bears. Chicago has produced over 360 offensive yards just twice all season. Weather is expected to be a factor here Sunday night and we know neither team wants to turn the ball over, especially Houston. With the Texans playing it close to the vest and Chicago not having big play ability offensively, this becomes a field position game. PLAY UNDER |
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11-11-12 | San Diego Chargers v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 | 24-34 | Win | 100 | 51 h 41 m | Show | |
220 San Diego at Tampa Bay
Chargers enter play at 4-4 on the season but have played a very easy schedule. The only quality teams they played were Atlanta a 24 point loss, and Denver an 11 point loss in a complete collapse. They have beaten Oakland, Tennessee and Kansas City twice. This non-conference game is sandwiched between two divisional games including a huge showdown next week with Denver. This is a west coast team traveling east for an early start game and the Chargers have surpassed 340 total yards of offense just twice all season. Tampa Bay has won 3 of their last 4 games with the only defeat coming on a controversial call against the Saints. Offensively the Bucs are on quite a roll putting up 42, 36, 28 and 38 points the past four weeks. Tampa does have divisional games on deck against Carolina and Atlanta, but off a 4-12 season we can't see Tampa Bay overlooking anyone. PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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11-11-12 | Denver Broncos v. Carolina Panthers +5 | 36-14 | Loss | -105 | 48 h 58 m | Show | |
222 Denver at Carolina
If you've handicapped the NFL for any amount of time you know that the league is always in flux, the team of the week syndrome affects the Broncos here. After three straight wins Denver has now been anointed the best team in the league, regression is about to hit. Against good teams Denver beat Pittsburgh by 12, lost to Atlanta by 6, lost to Houston by 6 and lost to New England by 10. Despite their record, this Carolina squad is a pretty good team. Carolina has lost just once all season by more than 6 points, and that was against the Giants right after they found out four key Giants players would not be suiting up. They lost by two at Atlanta, one at Chicago and by four hosting Seattle. This team is much better than their record and is once again gaining confidence. PLAY CAROLINA |
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11-11-12 | Detroit Lions -2 v. Minnesota Vikings | Top | 24-34 | Loss | -110 | 45 h 16 m | Show |
229 Detroit at Minnesota
The Lions took a little more action today which tells us that Percy Harvin isn't likely to play for the Vikings. He's the sole offensive playmaker for Minnesota other than Adrian Peterson, and now Detroit can stack the line for the run knowing Ponder has no ability to beat them. The more the Vikings play the more the opposition can game plan for this one-dimensional offense. Detroit had beaten the Vikings three straight times before a 20-13 defeat earlier this season. That put the Lions at 1-3 on the year but they have played much better as of late. Wins in 3 of the last 4 games with the lone defeat coming at Chicago by 6 points, in a game they lost the turnover battle by four. At 4-4 on the season and with divisional losses to Chicago and Minnesota this is a must win game for Detroit. PLAY DETROIT |
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11-04-12 | Arizona Cardinals v. Green Bay Packers UNDER 43.5 | 17-31 | Loss | -103 | 26 h 51 m | Show | |
Arizona at Green Bay
Cards haven't produced more than 16 points in four straight games, averaging just 9 ppg and one of those contests actually went into overtime. Defensively they are still stout holding all but two opponents to 317 yards or less on the season. Green Bay has a lot of injuries and they have a bye on deck. This is one of those games where they just look to get the win and get out of the game healthy. The offense has surpassed 356 yards just twice all season and the defense has improved each of the last four weeks. PLAY UNDER |
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11-04-12 | Baltimore Ravens -3.5 v. Cleveland Browns | Top | 25-15 | Win | 100 | 26 h 45 m | Show |
421 Baltimore at Cleveland
Ravens have owned the Browns having won 9 straight games by six points or more. In the earlier meeting Baltimore had just played on Sunday Night Football looking for playoff revenge against the Patriots, and in a Thursday Night Football contest they still beat Cleveland by 7 with a 71 yard advantage. Now off a blowout loss to Houston and with an extra week to prepare we expect the Ravens to win this one comfortably. No lookahead next week as they host Oakland. Cleveland is off a win over San Diego and has a bye on deck. Teams going into the bye have been a terrible proposition all season. The new collective bargaining agreement guarantees four days off, therefore players are planning short vacations with their families. Not a good mental preparation week for Cleveland. PLAY BALTIMORE |
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11-01-12 | Kansas City Chiefs v. San Diego Chargers UNDER 43 | 13-31 | Loss | -110 | 55 h 11 m | Show | |
302 Kansas City at San Diego
Overall 4 of the last 5 meetings in this series finished under this posted total, the lone game to surpass this number happened earlier this year in a 37-20 San Diego win. But both teams combined for a whopping 7 turnovers in that contest and the total yardage of 646 doesn't equate to 57 points scored. The closing total in that game was 43 so there hasn't been any total adjustments since that time. Kansas City as of this writing doesn't know who will be behind center, but does it really matter? Neither Quinn or Cassel has excelled in the past and there is no reason to expect anything different here. Kansas City is in line for the top draft pick this year and a new quarterback will join the club in the off-season. Therefore expect the Chiefs to keep the ball on the ground and run clock. After all they have scored just 16, 10 and 6 points the past three games. Defensively KC has permitted just one opponent all season to surpass 379 total yards as this defense is likely the most underrated in the league. San Diego is thought of as a quality offensive football team but that's just not the case any longer. In seven games this season only twice have the Chargers surpassed 310 total yards, against Tennessee and New Orleans, likely the two worst defenses in the league. Defensively San Diego has held all but one opponent (New Orleans on the road), to less than 390 yards. San Diego has lost the turnover battle the last three games while Kansas City hasn't won a turnover battle all season. Therefore we expect a very conservative game plan from both teams which means plenty of rushes and time off the clock. PLAY UNDER |
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10-28-12 | Atlanta Falcons v. Philadelphia Eagles -1 | 30-17 | Loss | -120 | 67 h 23 m | Show | |
228 Atlanta at Philadelphia
The Falcons went into the break as the lone undefeated team in the league. Next Sunday night they host the Cowboys in a nationally televised affair. Atlanta beat these Eagles last year 35-31 as a home underdog. While Atlanta is 4-2 ATS on the season it's interesting to note that after a +10 turnover margin in the first three games, they are 1-2 ATS the last three contests while breaking even in the turnover department. While Atlanta is a quality team they are overrated in the betting marketplace. The best teams the Falcons beat were either Denver, San Diego or Washington. Atlanta has had a very easy schedule so far. While Atlanta went into the break fat and happy the Eagles lost back to back games on the final play to Pittsburgh and Detroit. At 3-3 on the season and with New Orleans, Dallas and Washington the next three weeks this is a must win game for the host. The Eagles have won straight up the last 11 times following a bye dating all the way back to 2001. While the Eagles have underperformed the last two seasons not many coaches are as good as Andy Reid with extra time to prepare. While the Eagles do have a big game on deck at New Orleans for Monday Night Football, that game means nothing if they lose here at home to the Falcons. Philadelphia has lost the turnover battle in all but one game this year, which is why they have the record of 3-3 and are currently an afterthought when discussing the elite teams in this league. But keep in mind that Philadelphia has out gained 4 of 6 opponents and held all but one team to less than 370 total yards. As opposed to interceptions, fumbles are mostly random and the Eagles have a -8 disadvantage in recovering fumbles. Once Philadelphia stops shooting themselves in the foot they can once again join the elite of the league, it all starts here on Sunday. PLAY PHILADELPHIA |
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10-28-12 | Washington Redskins +4.5 v. Pittsburgh Steelers | 12-27 | Loss | -104 | 47 h 40 m | Show | |
235 Washington at Pittsburgh
The Redskins sit at 3-4 on the season, and the division title is still in their view if they can come out of Pittsburgh with a victory. They host Carolina next week before going into their bye week. The Skins haven't lost any game by more than 7 points this season and they have been especially impressive when taking to the road. A 40-32 win in New Orleans, a very tough place to play. A 3 point loss at a much improved St Louis venue, a 2 point win at Tampa Bay, and a last second 4 point loss a week ago to the NY Giants. This is a team that is in every game and they have the type of offensive team than can give this aging Pittsburgh defense fits. When handicapping the NFL the schedule is a big factor. Knowing when a team will be up for a game or have a letdown is crucial. Let's take a quick look at the Pittsburgh schedule. After their bye they hosted in-state rival Philadelphia. That game was followed by nationally televised games at Tennessee and Cincinnati. The latter being this past Monday Night against a divisional rival. After facing the NFC's Redskins this week they travel to New York to face the Super Bowl Champion Giants, followed by Monday Night Football and Sunday Night Football commitments. So this game against a team from the opposite conference would be the least important contest for the Steelers in a seven week span. With divisional games at Cleveland and Baltimore after that this game becomes even less of a priority for Pittsburgh. The Steelers haven't won a game by more than 7 points all season and right now they are having terrible offensive line issues. With the NFC dominating the AFC this season this line is simply too high. An outright Washington win would not surprise. PLAY WASHINGTON |
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10-28-12 | Carolina Panthers +9 v. Chicago Bears | Top | 22-23 | Win | 100 | 73 h 32 m | Show |
233 Carolina at Chicago
The Carolina Panthers are like a virus right now that nobody wants any part of. That's exactly why there is a great deal of value on this team. ESPN is blowing up the whole bad attitude of Cam Newton story, while in truth the kid just wants to win and he's never been in this situation before. With Carolina at 1-5 on the season and with their backs to the wall we know what type of effort we will get from this club on Sunday. Keep in mind that only once all season have they lost by more than 6 points and that was the nationally televised game against the Giants in which New York had four key players ruled out before the game. Carolina is a young team that came into that contest overconfident and it bit them badly as the veteran Giants rallied around the fallen teammates. Now it's Carolina in the rallying role as Newton has taken a major media hit. Chicago is 5-1 on the season and has won four straight games by a combined margin of 111-34. They are off a satisfying Monday Night Football win over division rival Detroit with Sunday Night Football and Monday Night Football games on deck in the next few weeks. Chicago beat Carolina each of the last two seasons and they are likely to treat this game as a foregone conclusion. While Carolina is getting criticized by the media this week the signal caller for the Bears has long been in the same boat. Do we really expect Cutler and the Bears to outgrow their well known personality of team infighting? Sure Chicago is living the high life right now but we all know what's right around the corner. There is no way the Bears have the same intensity here as the Panthers, and these two teams are far closer in talent than the line indicates. PLAY CAROLINA |
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10-21-12 | Tennessee Titans v. Buffalo Bills OVER 46.5 | 35-34 | Win | 100 | 51 h 38 m | Show | |
415 Tennessee at Buffalo
The Titans on the road have allowed 38, 38 and 30 points. Tennessee has permitted 390 yards or more to every team but one, in that lone game they gave up 38 points to Houston. Only once has a Tennessee total not gone over this current number and that was against the defensive minded Minnesota Vikings. Last year the league average yards per pass was 7.1, so far this season every single Tennessee opponent has surpassed that number. Only twice all season has a Bills game stayed under this posted total, against Cleveland and Arizona. Keep in mind in just about every Buffalo game the opposing defenses were superior to the offenses. Kansas City, Arizona, San Francisco and the NY Jets. Those are low totaled teams and Buffalo has still averaged 54.3 total points per game in their six contests. Buffalo started the season scoring 28, 35, 24 and 28 points until running into the NFC West defenses of San Francisco and Arizona. Now playing the weakest stop unit they have faced all season we expect Buffalo to go off offensively. Defensively this is a team that has permitted 48, 52 and 45 points all clearly season highs for the opposition. This stop unit is very overrated. PLAY OVER |
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10-21-12 | Dallas Cowboys v. Carolina Panthers +2.5 | 19-14 | Loss | -105 | 51 h 32 m | Show | |
426 Dallas at Carolina
No need to hurry on this one as we likely see a 3 here once the public gets involved, if not we likely won't get hurt with waiting. Public teams are great go against entities, public teams that have shown the inclination to find ways to lose are an added bonus. The last three years Dallas is now 4-18-1 ATS when favored. Dallas rarely has the temperament to win by margins which is why they continue to put themselves in win or die situations. Now 3-9-1 in the role of road favorites do we really trust the Cowboys here after doing everything positive last week and still finding a way to lose. With a huge game on deck vs division rival New York Giants, followed by Sunday Night Football with undefeated Atlanta along with division rival Philadelphia after that you would think this is a must win situation for the Cowboys. That's not a positive with this team. Carolina has been in every game this season except the 36-7 loss to the NY Giants. In that game four key New York players did not suit up and the Panthers assumed they would get the victory, going off as a 3 point favorite. Because they were crushed on national television Carolina is a loser team that Joe Public will not be going to the window to bet. The fact of the matter is that although Carolina enters this game at 1-4 on the season the losses other than the afore mentioned game were by margins of 4, 2, and 6 points. Two of those defeats came at the hands of undefeated Atlanta and league flavor of the month Seattle. Off three straight losses and coming off a bye you will get a supreme effort for the dog here. Teams off a bye who lost their last game at home are 49-36-3 ATS 57.6% winners. (Thanks to my colleague Jim Kruger for that nifty betting angle.) With road games at Chicago and Washington on deck this is the game the Panthers must have. Regardless of if we see a 3 here this is a clear play on the home underdog. BTW, NFC dogs are now 34-4 ATS on the season. PLAY CAROLINA |
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10-21-12 | Green Bay Packers v. St. Louis Rams +6 | 30-20 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 30 m | Show | |
424 Green Bay at St Louis
Was hoping to get the full 6 here but the sharp books are showing 5's. May want to wait on this one and hope the public drives this up from the 5 1/2 to 6. Green Bay is coming off a nationally televised game in which they played their best game of the season. Joe Public saw them pound the undefeated Houston Texans and now all they need to do is beat a St Louis team who has been terrible the past few seasons. Easy money right? We all know the NFL does not work that way as 80% of the money has come in on the favorite and yet the line has been moving down. This is also the third straight road game for the Packers. That negative situation hasn't happened for Green Bay since 1998 and they failed to cover that game FWIW by double digits. Teams who have an 8 point or larger scoring average from the previous season have a severe regression to the mean the following season. In 2010 the Pack averaged 24.3 ppg and last year 35.0 ppg. Even with last weeks 42 point outburst in Houston Green Bay is scoring just 25.7 ppg in 2012. With a defense that has permitted four of six opponents to reach 24 or more points, it's tough to lay over a field goal on the road. St Louis has permitted just 192, 282, 319 and 274 total yards in their last four games. At home they are undefeated allowing 3, 13 and 28 points. Off a tough loss at Miami and with New England on deck this is a very important game for the Rams. At 3-3 on the year and with the NFC elite teams struggling as of late a win here could put them into the playoff discussion. With NFC dogs hitting at a remarkable 34-4 spread mark this year the value is on the underdog host. PLAY ST LOUIS |
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10-21-12 | Tennessee Titans v. Buffalo Bills -3 | 35-34 | Loss | -125 | 26 h 1 m | Show | |
416 Tennessee at Buffalo
If you had known coming into the season that Tennessee would already own victories over both Detroit and Pittsburgh you would be rushing to the betting windows looking for Titans futures. But the reality of the situation is that Tennessee is just 2-4 on the year and they beat both those teams by late field goals. Both Detroit and Pittsburgh are down this year and because of injuries and bad play neither may make the playoffs. Tennessee has been out gained in all but one contest this year and this defense has been horrendous. The 23 points they allowed a very beat up Pittsburgh team last week was a whopping 7 points better than they fared in any other game. The Titans have yet to win the turnover battle in any game and the offense has only surpassed 14 points twice this season. Simply put this is a terrible team. Buffalo sits at 3-3 on the year with the three losses coming to the Jets, Patriots and 49ers. We used the Jets in that opening week game as New York had a statement to make because of all the negativity coming out of the preseason. And losing to New England and San Francisco, two teams likely favored to be in the Super Bowl is no embarrassment. After facing the tough and talented defenses of San Francisco and Arizona the last two weeks the Bills are about to take a major step down in talent. Every team they have played thus far has been better defensively than offensively, now they take on what could be the worst defense in the league. This number is very cheap considering the opposition. PLAY BUFFALO |
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10-21-12 | Cleveland Browns v. Indianapolis Colts -2 | 13-17 | Win | 100 | 26 h 59 m | Show | |
420 Cleveland at Indianapolis
The Cleveland Browns broke through and won their first game of the season last week hosting the Bengals. But before you buy your tickets to the Dog Pound keep in mind they were out gained by 110 yards and held a +3 turnover margin. In three road games this season Cleveland has lost by margins of 7, 7 and 14 points, permitting 375, 438 and 502 yards in the process. The Browns have been road underdogs of 6 points or more in ten straight games. Their last time not favored by a touchdown was in this very same building a year ago when the Browns beat Indy 27-19 as a 2 point road favorite. Since that game they have lost ten straight road games in straight up fashion, now with the current line they are expected to get back in the win column against a much better team than the one they faced a year ago. A team that has already won as many games as last seasons 2-14 Colts squad. Indy is the better team here and they come in off an embarrassing blowout loss to the Jets, Cleveland meanwhile is off a satisfying victory. The Colts own victories over Minnesota and Green Bay, two teams that are better than the Bengals who the Browns beat last week. Indy owns the better defense having yielded only 351, 356, 333 and 327 total yards the last four games. Sitting at 2-3 on the year the Colts can actually have a winning record soon as they face the Browns, Titans, Dolphins and Jaguars the next four weeks. This is a team that went 10-6 just two years ago and is once again on the upswing. Cleveland on the other hand remains a stagnant team with fans waiting on the draft. The Colts are the better team and the line and situation are in their favor. PLAY INDIANAPOLIS |
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10-15-12 | Denver Broncos +1.5 v. San Diego Chargers | 35-24 | Win | 100 | 124 h 36 m | Show | |
233 Denver at San Diego
The Broncos have played a brutal schedule so far facing the likes of the Steelers, Falcons, Texans and Patriots. Despite playing 4 of their 5 games against top level competition Denver has outscored the opposition by 21 points. Entering this game at 2-3 on the season and going into a bye this is a must win game for Denver. Offensively the Broncos have put up 21 points or more against every opponent and only Houston and New England has success against this Denver stop unit, San Diego doesn't have that offensive ability. The Chargers are 3-2 on the season and 2-0 in division, this game is huge for the visitor. The Chargers have been held under 300 yards of total offense in 3 of 5 games this season. The only games they had success were against Tennessee and New Orleans, two of the worst defenses in football. The road team won and covered the past three meetings, we look for more of the same on Monday. PLAY DENVER |
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10-14-12 | Green Bay Packers v. Houston Texans -3 | Top | 42-24 | Loss | -130 | 82 h 46 m | Show |
232 Green Bay at Houston
This line is simply absurd. Does anyone really think these two teams are comparable? With the line currently in the 3 1/2 to 4 range the betting markets are saying the Texans are about a single point better than the Packers. Green Bay has outscored the opposition by just one point this year despite playing 3 of 5 games at home. Sure they should have beaten Seattle but that score isn't going to change. To put yourself in that position in the first place tells us this Packer squad has taken a major drop from a year ago. They can't protect the quarterback and the defense has permitted 474 and 464 yards the last two weeks to teams who have a combined three victories. The last three times Green Bay took to the road they lost at Kansas City, Seattle and Indianapolis, three much weaker squads than they will face on Sunday. As opposed to Green Bay, Houston has outscored the opposition by a combined 76 points despite playing 3 of 5 games on the road. The Texans are on a 12-3 ATS run while the Packers are 1-4 against the spread this season. Sure the loss of Cushing will hurt but teams rebound nicely the first week after losing a key player. The Texans went through the motions Monday night in a game they knew would be a victory. This game against a 15-1 squad from last year is a statement game for the Texans. PLAY HOUSTON |
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10-14-12 | Dallas Cowboys v. Baltimore Ravens OVER 44.5 | 29-31 | Win | 100 | 92 h 11 m | Show | |
Dallas at Baltimore
The Cowboys offense has been a major disappointment thus far scoring 18, 16 and 7 points the past three games. Coming out of a bye what do you think the Cowboys were working on? Dallas has been a quality offense in the Tony Romo years and he has a slew of talented players around him. While we don't like the ownership or the coach the team has offensive talent. The last three years coming out of the bye week Dallas averaged 26.7 points per game. Baltimore is a team that wants to push the pace offensively and they are coming off a game in which they failed to score a touchdown against the Chiefs. The last time the Ravens failed to reach double digits they put up 30 last year against Arizona as the two teams combined for 57 points. After scoring 23, 31, 23 and 44 points to open up the year we look for a fast paced offensive success game from the host. PLAY OVER |
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10-14-12 | Kansas City Chiefs +4.5 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 10-38 | Loss | -104 | 66 h 24 m | Show | |
213 Kansas City at Tampa Bay
Now that the line is hitting 4 1/2 on this game we are going to step in and take the points with the Chiefs. Kansas City was good to us last week as the defense which has been under the radar all season long came through again, limiting Baltimore to just 9 points. Kansas City has held three straight opponents to less than 300 yards of offense which is amazing considering the negative 9 turnover margin in those games. The turnovers put this defense in bad positions but the KC stop unit has continually risen to the task. Now with Matt Cassel out and Brady Quinn in the line continues to rise. While we have never been a fan of Quinn since his days in Cleveland, is he really that much of a drop off from Cassel? The Chiefs have thrown nine interceptions through five games, how much worst can Brady be? This is a team that plays solid defense and runs the ball. That's a job that Brady can do as he won't be called upon to win the game for the Chiefs. Tampa Bay is a bad team masquerading as an average team. They have been out gained in every contest by margins of 101, 131, 297 and 43 yards. If it wasn't for a +3 turnover margin on the season the Bucs would be winless. While they are 3-1 ATS all spread covers came at the expense of turnovers. A 9 point cover over Carolina with a +2 TO margin, a 1/2 point cover over the Giants with a +1 TO margin and a 1 point cover over Dallas with a +1 turnover margin. Take away the TO advantages and the Bucs are likely 0-4 SU & ATS. Teams that are coming off a bye are getting a lot of weight in the market this week, but each team must be graded individually. Tampa Bay is 0-4 ATS coming off buys the last few years and while Greg Schiano may be an improvement as a head coach we have yet to see that materialize on the field. His Rutgers teams were 5-5 ATS the last five seasons coming off a bye. We see no reason to think his coaching style has changed this team. PLAY KANSAS CITY |
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10-08-12 | Houston Texans v. NY Jets +9 | 23-17 | Win | 100 | 15 h 3 m | Show | |
Houston at New York Jets
This line was been over adjusted based on what happened to the Jets last week. Houston and San Francisco are virtually tied as the best teams in the NFL right now. Last week the 49ers were -4, now the Texans are -8 (Santana Moss is not a 4 point player). Therefore we get the key numbers of 6 and 7. Houston is undefeated on the season but all we've seen is the good Texans, we've yet to see Houston have a bad performance. In the NFL parity reigns and every time a team is the flavor of the month they take a major step back. Houston has Green Bay on deck for Sunday Night Football followed by possible playoff opponent Baltimore the following week. While this is the big stage we can see Houston overlooking this opponent. The Jets are off an embarrassing 34-0 loss at home last week, in a media center such as the Big Apple you know we will get a fully focused team here. Standing at 2-2 on the year this is the most important game of the season for the Jets. What better way to shut up the critics than to beat the Texans in prime time on MNF. The betting markets are showing roughly 80% of the tickets being written on the road favorite, a terrible point spread situation for the chalk. Nobody wants anything to do with the Jets right now, that's exactly why you can't go against them here. PLAY NEW YORK JETS |
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10-07-12 | San Diego Chargers v. New Orleans Saints -3.5 | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 49 h 10 m | Show | |
434 San Diego at New Orleans
This is a tough cross-country trip for the Chargers who host Denver on MNF next week. This game is sandwiched between divisional rivals and SD is already 2-0 in division. San Diego is known to have a good offense but they haven't reached 300 yards in 3 of 4 games this season. The Chargers have fared well against the pass this season but only Atlanta has any semblance of a passing attack. Oakland, Tennessee and Kansas City are all run based attacks. New Orleans is 0-4 on the year and a dead team considering playoff contention, but 0-4 teams have been golden ATS over the years. Cashing 58% ATS the last two decades as the betting public looks to fade winless teams. The Saints have the strongest home field advantage in the NFL when not playing divisional foes (4.5 points) by our estimations. Divisional opponents are more familiar with the noise here, and despite the Saints slow start this being a night game helps the host. New Orleans has a bye next week and a loss here would leave a terrible taste in the players mouths with an extra week of bad press. New Orleans will give everything they have here and the Chargers have a big game on deck. PLAY NEW ORLEANS |
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10-07-12 | Baltimore Ravens v. Kansas City Chiefs +6 | 9-6 | Win | 100 | 42 h 51 m | Show | |
424 Baltimore at Kansas City
We are not a fan of laying big numbers on the NFL road, a poor subset historically. While you can't predict turnovers based on what has happened this year you can assume Baltimore won't have a turnover deficit (Ravens +4 on the year with an aggressive defense, KC -13 on the year with a mistake prone offense). That said there is not a huge talent gap in the NFL and traditionally turnover edges even out over time. This is a flat spot in the schedule for Baltimore after facing Cincinnati MNF, Philadelphia, New England SNF & Playoff Revenge, Cleveland TNF, they have Dallas and Houston on deck before a bye. Baltimore is just 4-5 straight up on the road the last two seasons and we can easily see them taking the Chiefs for granted here. Kansas City has injury problems defensively but they have performed pretty well this season considering they are constantly on the field. The Chiefs have permitted 376, 379, 288 and 293 total yards despite the opposition having 13 more possessions because of turnovers. The Chiefs lack a passing attack to get them back in the game if they fall behind early, but we feel they will have a great deal of success on the ground. PLAY KANSAS CITY |
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09-30-12 | NY Giants v. Philadelphia Eagles -1 | 17-19 | Win | 100 | 79 h 19 m | Show | |
230 NY Giants at Philadelphia
The Giants have dropped 6 of the last 7 meetings in this series. The defense has been getting killed in the passing game allowing 10.0, 8.1 and 8.1 yards per pass attempt against Dallas, Tampa Bay and Carolina. Three teams not known to be among the league's elite passing offenses. A telling stat shows the Giants are +4 on the season in turnover margin yet they have only covered once in three games. While the Giants have extra time to prepare off their Thursday win over the Panthers, the game means more to Philadelphia who can't afford to lose a divisional game at home. Andy Reid has had just two losing seasons ATS the last decade when facing divisional rivals. The Eagles are at their best when they are familiar with an opponent. Unlike the Giants, Philadelphia has won 2 of 3 games straight up despite a -6 turnover disadvantage. If teams can find a way to win despite losing the turnover battle those are teams we are looking to back. Philadelphia came into the season as the pick by many to win the Super Bowl and despite a 2-1 record to open the season they are laying less than a field goal at home. We just can't pass up that value with a team that has the superior talent. Keep in mind in the two meetings last year the Giants had a +4 turnover edge and still only outscored the Eagles by a combined 6 points 39-33. PLAY PHILADELPHIA |
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09-30-12 | Oakland Raiders +7 v. Denver Broncos | Top | 6-37 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 34 m | Show |
221 Oakland at Denver
Now that we are seeing 7's on the board it's time to step in and take the best road divisional team in football. Despite many different head coaches the Oakland Raiders continue to cover the number against divisional foes as a road underdog. The last six years alone Oakland is 16-2 ATS on the road against teams in the AFC West. The last three years they are a perfect 9-0 ATS and they have been covering by margins. Here is a recent listing of the Men In Black when traveling to the Mile High City: 23-20 Oakland as a 3 point underdog, 59-14 Raiders as a 7 point dog, 20-19 Raiders as a 14 point dog, 31-10 Oakland as an 8 1/2 point dog and 23-20 Denver as a 10 point underdog. That's 4-1 straight up all as a dog, covering the number by a combined 109 1/2 points! Oakland started the year poorly under new head coach Dennis Allen. They lost to the Chargers 22-14 because of poor special teams play. They out gained San Diego 321-258. They had to travel cross-country for an early start in Miami and the Dolphins rolled them 35-13. They only lost the yardage battle in that game 452-396 and Miami is a brutal place to play in the dead of summer. Black uniforms did not help the Raiders in the least. Last week they outlasted a very good Pittsburgh team in a spot when we were one of the very few willing to back the host. Denver to their credit have played a very tough schedule with games against Pittsburgh and Houston at home and Atlanta on the road. Because they played high profile teams they had been in the national spotlight. What did we learn from viewing the Broncos? The offense still has a long way to go under Peyton Manning as he has clearly lost some arm strength. His accuracy is still there but the ball takes longer to get there and the throws do not have the typical tight spiral. Defensively Denver is a poor tackling team that will continue to be revealed with more time on the field. Last year the defense wasn't exposed because the goal of the offense was to burn clock and run the ball. That's not the case this year. With a 1-2 record many look at this game as a must win for the Broncos with road games at New England and San Diego on deck. But keep in mind that good teams shouldn't have must win games because they shouldn't be in that position. We haven't seen enough positives out of Denver to back them as a favorite of any kind, especially against a confident team off a big win who won't be intimidated by their surroundings. By the way, Denver is now 20-40-4 ATS as a home favorite since 2002. PLAY OAKLAND |
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09-30-12 | Carolina Panthers +7.5 v. Atlanta Falcons | 28-30 | Win | 100 | 23 h 26 m | Show | |
209 Carolina at Atlanta
The last time the public saw the Carolina Panthers they were being manhandled by the New York Giants with four key pieces missing the game. The Panthers took a lot of money in that game and went off as a 3 point favorite. My guess is that anyone who doesn't bet for a living that saw that game will want no part of Carolina here, and that's exactly the way we like it. Carolina enters week four with a -6 turnover margin on the season, Atlanta on the other hand sits at +10 on the year. Turnovers are the great equalizer and while the Falcons have historically taken care of the football, only once in the last nine seasons did they have a double digit advantage. Carolina has extra time to prepare and they cannot afford to fall further behind Atlanta in the divisional race. This is a much better team than they showed last time out and we know that they will be fully focused. Atlanta on the other hand may be a bit full of themselves here. They are off three straight impressive wins including a victory over Denver in the national spotlight. They along with the Texans are the flavor of the week and you need to go no further than San Francisco to ask them how that tastes. Atlanta has dominated the Panthers as of late 31-23, 31-17, 31-10 and 31-10 the last two years. Do you really think this team will be focused on the task at hand? Keep in mind the Falcons have been out gained in 2 of 3 games thus far. If it wasn't for an unheard of turnover advantage they wouldn't be mentioned right now with the leagues elite. PLAY CAROLINA |
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09-23-12 | New England Patriots +3 v. Baltimore Ravens | 30-31 | Win | 100 | 103 h 58 m | Show | |
427 New England at Baltimore
We fully expect the 3's to fade here so let's get this one out while the number is still available. The Patriots are 25-12-2 ATS as an underdog under Belichick, not having a losing season in that role since 2002. They have been golden off a SU loss going 11-3 the last 4+ seasons and just as strong going back in his tenure. While the team is without two healthy TE's making the Pats offense less dynamic, we do like the vast improvement this team has shown defensively. So the offense may take a step back this year, while the team overall will more more sound than in the past. This is a big game for Baltimore as they have playoff revenge from a season ago. But we're not sure the Ravens are as good as they were last year. Obviously the offense should be more productive as they install a faster paced attack, but we have major concerns about this defense. Baltimore is an aging team and injuries have already been a problem on the defensive side of the ball. The faster offensive pace means the defense will be on the field for much longer than they have been accustomed to in years past. So while scoring will be up, opponent scoring will do the same. Keep in mind Philadelphia put up 486 total yards on this team last week. The final point may not come into play, but it should at least be considered. Baltimore after playing this Sunday Night Football contest must turn around and host divisional rival Cleveland on Thursday. If this is a lopsided game late we can see John Harbaugh pulling back starters which makes the Patriots plus the points even more enticing. PLAY NEW ENGLAND |
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09-23-12 | Pittsburgh Steelers v. Oakland Raiders +4.5 | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 76 h 9 m | Show | |
426 Pittsburgh at Oakland
The biggest road favorite on the board this week are the Pittsburgh Steelers who have to travel all the way to the west coast to play the winless Raiders. The Steelers are 3-6 ATS the last six years when traveling west of the Mississippi including an opening night loss at Denver 31-19. This is a beat up team who at this point is overrated based on past success. The offensive line is struggling and the defense is missing key players. The Steelers have produced just 284 and 331 yards of offense the first two weeks which makes laying over a field goal on the road a risky gamble. Oakland has gotten off to a poor start under first year coach Dennis Allen, losing to the Chargers by 8 and Miami by 22. But this is a more talented team than they have shown. The Raiders went 8-8 in each of the last two seasons and posted a solid 7-3-1 spread mark last year as an underdog, including 6 outright victories. Despite losing the first two games the Raiders have a slight yardage edge over the opposition thus far. Teams starting the season 0-2 are very dangerous playing at home in game three, especially when made an underdog. Considering that there are no standout teams in this division means Oakland still has time to right the ship. The NFL is a league of ebbs and flows and the best way to make cash is to go against public perception. When nobody is saying anything positive about a team we have learned that's the time you want to strike. The Raiders are just the team that fits that profile. PLAY OAKLAND |
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09-17-12 | Denver Broncos v. Atlanta Falcons -3 | Top | 21-27 | Win | 100 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
Denver at Atlanta
The Broncos looked good against the Steelers opening week which is why this game remains at the key number of 3. But that had more to do with Pittsburgh missing 2 of their top 3 defensive players. Manning behind center is an upgrade but it also means the Bronco defense will be on the field for many more plays than a season ago. Last year Denver ran the ball and took time off the clock, therefore keeping the defense off the field. Now with Manning the offense has more quick strike ability but the defense will be tested. If you watched the opener if was clear that Denver does not tackle well. It didn't matter against a banged up Pittsburgh team but it will tonight. Atlanta is moving to more of a quick strike offense that will wear out opposing defenses. While Denver does practice in the high altitude they don't have the defensive weapons to slow down a very talented Atlanta squad. The Falcons have the skill position talent to put pressure on this questionable Denver stop unit and we expect the host to light up the scoreboard. PLAY ATLANTA |
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09-16-12 | Minnesota Vikings v. Indianapolis Colts +1.5 | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 89 h 59 m | Show | |
202 Minnesota at Indianapolis
Now that Austin Collie has been cleared to play it's time to jump in on the Indianapolis Colts as a home underdog. Andrew Luck opening on the road may have been a bit overwhelmed but that won't be the case here. He now has a full arsenal of offensive weapons and we expect the Colts to move the ball well against a suspect Minnesota defense. We have these teams ranked virtually even and yet based on last weeks results we get the host at plus money. We like to go against teams coming off an overtime victory and we have the added bonus of catching Indianapolis off a -4 turnover game. Minnesota hasn't posted a winning spread record as a road favorite in any year since 2005, the only season in the last decade they did so. We don't believe Peterson is near the player he was before surgery and we seriously doubt he ever will be. Running backs have a short shelf life in the NFL and Peterson has been great, but his good performance last week only adds to our advantage here. Not every NFL game has the same importance, and a team playing a non-conference game on the road after an overtime win is low on the totem pole of situations. We expect the Colts to get in the win column here. PLAY INDIANAPOLIS |
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09-16-12 | Baltimore Ravens v. Philadelphia Eagles -2 | 23-24 | Loss | -110 | 69 h 48 m | Show | |
208 Baltimore at Philadelphia
NFL Handicapping rule number one: When a team looks terrific on the national stage of Monday Night Football look to go against them the following week. Baltimore has a short week after playing Monday night and has playoff revenge on Sunday Night Football against New England on deck. They just played a divisional rival, now travel against a non-divisional opponent, and face a likely AFC Playoff opponent next week. Baltimore is running a hurry up offense this year which means defensively they will suffer. Even in defeat on Monday the Bengals moved the ball at will against the Ravens. Despite the Eagles struggles last week they have perhaps the most talented team in the league. Unlike Baltimore they are coming off a bad performance and take on a questionable Arizona team next week. They out gained Cleveland 456 to 210 yet turnovers cost them at key times in the game. Andy Reid is 14-8 ATS as a non-divisional home favorite the past five seasons. Getting the Eagles here at less than a field goal is a bargain. PLAY PHILADELPHIA |
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09-16-12 | Kansas City Chiefs +3 v. Buffalo Bills | Top | 17-35 | Loss | -100 | 26 h 52 m | Show |
Kansas City at Buffalo
We were holding off on this one thinking we could grab a +3 1/2 but that's unlikely to happen now. Kansas City has been consistently the better team the last two seasons winning 17 games entering the year. Last week they were without key contributors and dropped a 40-24 decision to the Falcons. But even in defeat they held a 393 to 376 yardage edge. It was a -3 turnover situation that cost the Chiefs a week ago. Kansas City is much healthier for Sundays game and they come in with a bit of revenge having been blowout by the Bills in last years opener 41-7. Buffalo isn't on a very good streak right now. Counting the preseason they have now lost 13 of the last 14 games in which they have played. We are a big proponent of teams that take care of the football and the Bills are a complete go-against in that regard. In 2010 they ended the season with a -17 turnover margin and finished the year with just 4 victories. Last year they had a +18 turnover improvement and still managed to win just two more games. In the opener against the Jets they lost the turnover battle 4 to 1. We simply want no part of this team right now laying points. Buffalo was 1-5 ATS last season when favored which is something you would expect from a careless team. PLAY KANSAS CITY |
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09-13-12 | Chicago Bears v. Green Bay Packers OVER 51 | Top | 10-23 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 2 m | Show |
Chicago at Green Bay
Scoring was up in the preseason and it continued through the opening week with an average of 48 1/2 points being scored. There has been some speculation that holding isn't being called enough by the replacement officials which gives a huge edge to offenses and offensive lines. With passing games taking advantage we will once again look for another preponderance of Overs in week 2 action. Last week Chicago put up 428 yards of offense, a number surpassed just once all last season for the Bears. Jay Cutler is healthy and he has a better receiving corps this season. Defensively the Rams fared well against Chicago last week producing 356 total yards despite a negative 4 turnover margin. Green Bay had just 324 total yards of offense against the Niners a week ago. Only once all season last year did they perform worse. In the game following those offensive struggles Green Bay put up 35 points against this Chicago defense in a 35-21 victory. The Packers are known for their offense and when they suffer a loss they rebound very well offensively. Here are the point totals in Green Bay games off a loss the last few years when not having a bye the following week: 56, 54, 43, 52, 50, 58, 62, 53, 66, 24 and 58 points. Overall 9 of those 11 games went Over the closing total. With the Green Bay defense still struggling and the Packer running game remaining a problem we look for Aaron Rodgers to air it out on a regular basis. PLAY OVER |
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09-09-12 | Indianapolis Colts +10 v. Chicago Bears | 21-41 | Loss | -105 | 68 h 6 m | Show | |
453 Indianapolis at Chicago
Now that the +10's are starting to appear again it's time to take the points with the Colts. Indy was coming off nine straight seasons of ten or more wins last year when they found out they would lose their future hall of fame quarterback for the season. That's enough to put any team into a funk. Now they enter this season with another talented QB behind center as Andrew Luck has looked just as good as advertised. While everyone will point to the Colts 2-14 record from a year ago, it was telling how this team would not lay down in order to get the first pick in the draft. This is a proud group of veterans who were embarrassed by their play last season. A team that covered 4 of 5 to end the season with just one loss coming by more than 7 points. Chicago opens the year being picked by many to be a surprise team in the NFC. But keep in mind that they are at their best as a divisional host. The Bears have gone five straight seasons without posting a winning spread mark while hosting out of division foes, managing a 5-10-1 spread mark. Lovie Smith knows how important holding serve at home means in a divisional race, and this upcoming Thursday they go to Green Bay in a pivotal game for early divisional control. Chicago has lost three straight against their heated rival. The Bears haven't been a double digit home favorite since midway through the 2009 season. They don't deserve that honor here. PLAY INDIANAPOLIS |
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09-09-12 | St Louis Rams +7.5 v. Detroit Lions | 23-27 | Win | 100 | 68 h 42 m | Show | |
St Louis at Detroit
A major key in beating week 1 NFL is to go against the grain and back ugly teams from the prior season. St Louis and their 2-14 record are just that. Sure many feel the Rams will be improved, how could they not be. But Joe Public still looks at this as a team that has won three or less games in a season 4 of the last 5 years. St Louis has made some questionable head coaching hires over the years but Jeff Fisher is one of the best to ever hold down the position in the NFL. He was one of our favorite coaches to bet on when he was in Tennessee and the Rams will be much better with him on the sideline. You know a team will come into the season overhyped in the public eye when two of your star players have spent the offseason filming commercials. Every time we turn on the television either Matthew Stafford or Calvin Johnson is hawking some product. If you don't believe this has an effect on a team just look at the underperforming Detroit Tigers. Verlander and Fielder are a commercial mainstay on the MLB Network. Detroit was an 0-16 team in 2008, won 2 games in 2009, 6 in 2010 and 10 last year. This isn't a franchise known for success, a fall is on the way. The Lions had a +11 turnover advantage last year and won 5 games by a touchdown or less. They caught the breaks while the Rams didn't. We are well aware that this line stood as high as 9 earlier this summer, but as long as we can grab the +7 1/2 it's not too much of a concern. The numbers lost are some of the deadest numbers in the NFL. PLAY ST LOUIS |
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09-09-12 | Miami Dolphins +13.5 v. Houston Texans | 10-30 | Loss | -105 | 2 h 45 m | Show | |
465 Miami at Houston
Houston opened as a 6 point favorite at Cantor Gaming when they put out their full season pack of NFL lines. Now the Texans are all the way up to -13 and this play is likely to go higher. Miami entered the season without a highly touted starting quarterback so the promotion of Tannehill shouldn't be enough to move this line to this range. Going against public perception in the opening week has been a big money maker over the years and Miami is now thought of as one of the worst teams in the league. Sure they should be the underdog here, but this line is ridiculous. Miami isn't the Cleveland Browns, yet they are being treated as the worst team in the league. Houston on the other hand are the 2012 NFL darlings. I've talked to many novice handicappers this year and they all pick Houston to be their SURPRISE NFL Champions. Houston is a terrific NFL team but the betting markets already agreed with that, way back in July! This line move is all one way action and we want no part of this inflated number. Was the -6 opener too low? Absolutely. The correct number was likely in the 9-10 range and we will step in with the true value side. PLAY MIAMI |
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